This is an important issue w/the Harvard affirmative action case coming up in the Supreme Court: are Asians pulling away from everybody else on the SAT undergrad test because they are so much smarter, or because the SAT is broken? Asians aren't lapping the field on MCAT or LSAT. https://t.co/VRgPeqLGY7
— Steve Sailer (@Steve_Sailer) October 17, 2022
If, in this century, left-handed baseball relief pitchers appeared to be pulling away from right-handed relief pitchers, the Internet would be swarming with superb statistical analyses of the question.
In contrast, Asians have been increasingly outscoring everybody else on college admissions tests in this century, but less on postgrad admissions tests, and the tiny percentage of people who know about it, such as myself, tend to be pretty uncertain about why it’s happening, and nobody else seems interested.
It may be worth analyzing the ethnicities of the Asians taking the LSAT — most of the higher-achieving American Born Chinese try to steer their children away from law and towards medicine. Indians, on the whole, are less impressive test-takers (and lower-order intellects, frankly) than their EA counterparts.
So congrats, sort of.
On the Asian test question, I speculate that the bottom of the Asian test takes (say bottom 1/2 and bottom quintile) is much higher than the other groups. Often times the poorest and least privileged Asians work much harder than those who are inclined to wallow in the woe ie me/us oppression Olympics (and that includes low performing whites in Appalachia)
A breakdown would be nice by quintile if availableReplies: @Supply and Demand
Steve,
It’s because when they take the LSATs and the MCATs they no longer live under their parent’s roof. It’s just like how in every state the select high school orchestra is all Asian, but as soon as they all go to college they throw that sh*t away and never pick up the violin again.
I was talking to a Korean young man who had gotten into Boston College, and he told me he had a perfect score on the SATs. I said why didn’t you go to Harvard. He said, “We all get perfect scores.” He had been a semi-famous pianist in high school, but absolutely refused to even touch a piano now.
Yeah, (East) Asians are better at these tests. We’re running out of them, though–more recent Asians, whether from China, India, or Israel are less good.
It could be that the SAT is offered throughout the world for all of the tiget mom driven upper class students in South Korea, Singapore, or China. Whereas after four years at an American university without the tiger mom around, the Asian students jus are not that good. It could also be that the college students in South Korea or China are not covering as much as the American students in selective universities.
Maybe they’re just fucking tired…….”Thank fucking god I’m out from under that bitches thumb” ……maybe I can grab a cocktail and get laid now!
Self selection. The bell curve for undergrads is shifted to the right for Asians versus Caucasians. The bell curves for graduate applicants overlap.
Broken SAT is probably most of it, but more dumb kids of other races taking the test helps.
The superiority of east Asians, that is, in the main, Chinese, Japanese and Koreans in IQ tests vis-à-vis persons of European ancestry has been known for an awfully long time, and is hardly controversial. Indeed, it has been known for at least 60 years.
We must add to this other character and personality traits, also liable to be hereditary in character, of which east Asians surpass Europeans in positive scores, eg, conscientious, application, discipline, focus, obedience, conformity etc. As an aside, one theory is that positive selection for these traits is correlated with historic high population densities in east Asia, Malthusian selection pressures and the reality of ever present death through starvation.
As for the apparent discordance between east Asian SAT scores and graduate program test scores as compared to Europeans, I cannot venture an answer. I can only conjecture that the self selected cohorts taking these tests cannot be compared to the SAT pool in terms of motivation and IQ.
Its a selection story. Asians in US are a selected bunch, selected for IQ, worth ethics, ambition, etc. These families and their kids are doing well. “Excellence” is less in vogue within all other ethnic groups in US. So gaps increasing at SAT level. When you’re conditioning on other ambitious students (such as by looking into people who took the MCAT), the gaps are lower.
I have a prediction for you : gaps in GRE would be somewhere in between and a similar gap in GRE among students who want to study STEM or Economics at PhD levels.
https://educationrealist.wordpress.com/2012/01/28/the-gap-in-the-gre/
This post has a graphic I think worth including here.
https://u.osu.edu/scintrohumanities/2020/10/21/dsi-showcase-the-inherent-bias-of-the-gre/
https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/u.osu.edu/dist/6/92240/files/2020/10/Screen-Shot-2019-11-15-at-12.50.23-PM.jpg
Similarly Jewish academic achievement used to be much more apparent in the hard sciences but today it’s shifted massively to the humanities and isn’t all that apparent in general compared to what it was. Too much out marriage or too much prosperity?
Is the vapidity of upper middle class and beyond children nature or nurture? (Do people who value money and status do better at getting it and produce children as vapid as them)
This also raises a broader question in society if certain people aren’t just better at pushing others out of the way but do not have any actual better performance once in those positions or even worse. (Though one could say the same for poorer Asian post-grad work in terms of them being less aggressive in chasing positions or proposing projects) I think about this often in professional sports, particularly in coaches/managers, lots of big personalities but only a very few actually produce the results with the rest simply getting a good crop of players to ‘manage’ to victory.
In general you can’t ever discount life scripts and culture contexts in terms of controlling what people do and spend their time on. Asians do comprise still a distinct cultural and social paradigm.
I suspect too that just as girls are better at studying than boys so too are East Asians better at studying than others and this conscientiousness along with a cultural paradigm and belief that they need higher scores than other races (Which in it’s impact just leads to even more aggressive Asian quotas wrt SAT scores) leads to them spending more time on it. Though it suggests itself as being a test you can’t study for, the evidence seems to suggest otherwise.
Whites can look for work in the trades, but there is increasing competition there from Latinxes.Replies: @Anonymous, @TickTock1948, @Alden
The kind of Asians/Whites that go to grad school may already be on par.
While the kind of whites that go to undergrad is a much broader cohort vs the self-selected group of Asians going to an American university.
We know that SAT plus HS grades provide a decent level of predictive power for college. Does anybody know if the predictiveness is the same for all races and whether or not there are any trends for that metric?
Is the vapidity of upper middle class and beyond children nature or nurture? (Do people who value money and status do better at getting it and produce children as vapid as them)
This also raises a broader question in society if certain people aren't just better at pushing others out of the way but do not have any actual better performance once in those positions or even worse. (Though one could say the same for poorer Asian post-grad work in terms of them being less aggressive in chasing positions or proposing projects) I think about this often in professional sports, particularly in coaches/managers, lots of big personalities but only a very few actually produce the results with the rest simply getting a good crop of players to 'manage' to victory.
In general you can't ever discount life scripts and culture contexts in terms of controlling what people do and spend their time on. Asians do comprise still a distinct cultural and social paradigm.
I suspect too that just as girls are better at studying than boys so too are East Asians better at studying than others and this conscientiousness along with a cultural paradigm and belief that they need higher scores than other races (Which in it's impact just leads to even more aggressive Asian quotas wrt SAT scores) leads to them spending more time on it. Though it suggests itself as being a test you can't study for, the evidence seems to suggest otherwise.Replies: @Anon, @Bardon Kaldian
Is it in the best interests of Whites to have Asians and Jews replace Whites in historically White universities? That entails that Asians and Jews will go on to replace Whites in the economy’s higher paying or most influential occupations (finance, academia, tech, law, medicine, government). And is that in the best interests of Whites? At least as concerns White men, it puts Asians and Jews at an advantage over White men in attracting White women as mates. Asians and Jews will make more money than White men and will therefore have more resources with which to provide for a family.
Whites can look for work in the trades, but there is increasing competition there from Latinxes.
To the extent that I have loyalties to the Caucasian race (and I do have at least some) the notion of White women marrying Asian men bothers me not at all. Had I a daughter and she married a man smarter than I, then my grandchild is also likely to be smarter. To view this any other way is short term thinking, which will keep your grandchildren second tier.
Asian men don’t marry or even date White women. It’s the other way around. Asian women pursue White men.
Most Jewish men and women freely marry other Whites and very White Hispanics. Jewish men sometimes marry Asian women. Even Orthodox Jews who want to keep kosher marry non Jews and work out the details.
The ignorant men of UNZ endlessly display their ignorance about White man Asian women in terms of sex attraction or ultra feminine Asian women vs aggressive feminazi White women.
Because they are ignorant of WHY asian women pursue White men. And always always fair skinned tall blue eyed light haired White men if possible.
1 The Asian Way favors the boys for various reasons the men of UNZ are ignorant of. Asian men are required to marry Asian women. There are many ways to enforce this. If necessary severe financial means.
2 So Asian women can marry whom they wish. Because despite all the Asian genius scientists etc the girls still don’t matter. Here’s a Chinese saying.” Marrying off a daughter is like throwing away dirty dishwater. “ The Family Asian Way is that girls just don’t matter. This disappears after the 4th generation in America and living in White suburbs rather in Asian neighborhoods.
3 Esthetics physical appearance social status height taller than the average Asian skin color lighter than Asian, the lighter the better. Light brown blondish red hair. Asian women want that because the kids will look more White than Asian. And the Asian women’s parents will want that because the kids will be taller and lighter than Asians.
In Asia short or medium height means you come from generations of people so poor they were malnourished thus short. Darker skin means the ancestors were slaves coolies poverty stricken tenant farmers fishermen construction outdoor workers.
That’s why asian women pursue White men. That’s why the Asian parents approve. Works out well for the White husband. Because he gets the advantage of the Asian networks in everything from good used cars at a reasonable price to getting business loans from the ethnic tribal and clan associations
Asians don’t marry Hispanics because Hispanics have become a poverty stricken oppressed victim group. Low status in the Asian view. Even though Hispanic is high status in affirmative action hiring. 1900 to 1950 many Japanese Hispanic marriages in California . Because the 2 groups lived in the same neighborhoods and went to the same schools worked in each other’s businesses. But that was when American Hispanics were at middle class status.
But once Hispanics became a poor very dark short oppressed immigrant minority Asian women wouldn’t go near them. Main factor was Japanese are middle and upper class while Hispanics became poorer and darker because of immigration.
4 Why Asian men are more or less coerced into marrying Asian women. Has to do with ancestor worship heredity purity. It’s the Asian Way. Might seem strange to men of UNZ but it’s their way. So stop analyzing and discussing and googling statistics. It’s the Asian Way. Works for them.
Works for the White husband the mixed kids and both families.
The classic pattern in Japan is that you study really hard to do well on your college entrance exam and get into a top college. And then once you get there, you can goof off (at least in comparison to before). Maybe this explains the SAT- grad school test gap in part.
It’s also possible that the grad school tests (esp. the LSAT) tap different strengths and weaknesses or that Asians have figured out more strategies for gaming the SAT vs. these other tests.
The SAT has been dumbed down so much over the years (in order to make you know who not look bad) that it’s just not that hard a test anymore for an intelligent, studious person. Asians are still intelligent and studious while the rest of the population increasingly appears like the cast of Idiocracy so they have pulled away from the pack. LSAT and MCAT have not been dumbed down to the same extent.
In the naive but still optimistic 1990s when the mania for diversity really started taking off, the powers that be seem to have made the decision that it was necessary to "recenter" the SAT such that the falling average score (which was the result of expanding college as a middle class consumer good and having more non-Prep white male types taking the test) should be moved back to a 1,000. I recall it was actually admitted and spoken about openly at the time that this was because more non-traditional college aspirants were taking the test.
But I don't think it had the desired effect of masking the underperformance of certain favored groups, so like in the children's nursery song "The Old Lady who Swallowed a Fly," the powers that decide these things swallowed a bird to catch the spider to catch the fly. My guess is that they thought that making changes away from a pure g-loaded objective test of colored ovals to a more subjective process eventually including study subjects and essays would help close the black-white gap. Since IQ isn't real and humans are ever malleable for good ends, we could immerse blacks into an SAT preparation regime via urban public schools, while white suburban kids would be left to find their own SAT prep courses - the gap would therefore close and we could all finally realize MLK's dream in full.
They didn't account for Asian Tiger Moms, who found the less objective SAT infinitely more "hackable" via test prep and drilling and sample essay coaching and so forth. No longer a test of pure aptitude (viz, raw intelligence), the test was a test in the traditional sense of mastery of a universe of material which could be more readily accomplished through rote repetition as a stand-in for innate aptitude. If it wasn't illegal you could probably measure the delta between the IQ of Asian test-takers and the SAT scores of the same Asian test-takers. You're probably looking at a couple standard deviations between intelligence and test scores of Asians attributable to drilling and immersive test prep. In Steve's graphs it was the mid to late 1990s when Asians started pulling away from everyone including the white population - a modest five to ten point intelligence premium should not have yielded this overperformance.
Additionally, I think it's a sort of open secret in academia that foreign born students, particularly the Chinese, are beneficiaries of an espionage campaign to preview the SAT which is administered later in the year in China. But since Chinese students pay full freight tuition in U.S. colleges, there's little impetus to root out industrial scale Chinese cheating at the expense of American applicants.Replies: @Jack D
It's likely the college is a better filter than highschool, you also have tough weeders like organic chemistry
Typical Med school prereq classes
• 2 semesters of Biology with Lab.
• 2 semesters of General Chemistry with Lab.
• 2 semesters of Physics with Lab.
• 2 semesters of English.
• 1 semester of Organic Chemistry with Lab.
• 1 semester of Biochemistry with or without Lab.
Med schools also removes the introverted antisocial types from the pool (most of these become programmers, engineers etc...)
The MCATS has physics and Chemistry
Everyone takes the SAT
But the only people who take the MCAT are sociable people
who have 4.0s, aced and aced physics and organic chem
All these filters mean that most of the say sub 120 IQ'S already opt out of the MCAT because they got killed by org chem or got their gpas killed as a result no big gap between Asians vs non Asians
We would of course need to look at the demographics to see if a lot of non Asians are simply opting out of the MCAT
Maybe someone like
@Steve Sailer
could do this further analysis
I suspect the main difference is whether cash is available for grad school study. Asians are not as rich as some people think they are, and medical school and law school are very expensive. I think Asian parents will provide for an undergraduate education, but many of them don’t think graduate school is worth paying for.
Secondly, how many Asian doctors and lawyers can you think of? Those are both fields Asians tend not to enter.
Steve is pointing out that the notorious dumbing down of the SAT has changed it from a prep-resistant test to a prep-rewarding test. The LSAT and MCAT are also beginning to dumb down, but the SAT was the pioneer in that respect.
And Asian parents will pay any money to send their kids to grad school. Because it’s The Asian Way. FYI, often the whole extended clan chips in. Not out of pure charity. For instance an accountant or Dr or trained auto mechanic is expected to work for the relatives for free when they’re not at their paid job And like Whites the students burden themselves with student loans.
You can’t learn The Asian Way through the Internet. Or projecting White values into Asian marriage and earning a living customs. Especially if you know nothing about The Asian Way Except ignorant speculation by other ignorant Whites.Replies: @Renard
Is the vapidity of upper middle class and beyond children nature or nurture? (Do people who value money and status do better at getting it and produce children as vapid as them)
This also raises a broader question in society if certain people aren't just better at pushing others out of the way but do not have any actual better performance once in those positions or even worse. (Though one could say the same for poorer Asian post-grad work in terms of them being less aggressive in chasing positions or proposing projects) I think about this often in professional sports, particularly in coaches/managers, lots of big personalities but only a very few actually produce the results with the rest simply getting a good crop of players to 'manage' to victory.
In general you can't ever discount life scripts and culture contexts in terms of controlling what people do and spend their time on. Asians do comprise still a distinct cultural and social paradigm.
I suspect too that just as girls are better at studying than boys so too are East Asians better at studying than others and this conscientiousness along with a cultural paradigm and belief that they need higher scores than other races (Which in it's impact just leads to even more aggressive Asian quotas wrt SAT scores) leads to them spending more time on it. Though it suggests itself as being a test you can't study for, the evidence seems to suggest otherwise.Replies: @Anon, @Bardon Kaldian
I’m not too sure about that.
Now, as I write, ethnic Jews are- I think; it’s just an impression- over-represented in the fields of fundamental physics & mathematics (I don’t know about chemistry and biology), more than in the Golden Age from 1910 to 1950 (give or take).
But there are no spectacular cognitive successes in the past 30-40 years, so what we’re witnessing is a spectacle of depression Lee Smolin has described:
https://www.unz.com/isteve/first-2021-nobel-awarded-will-the-hard-science-nobels-finally-go-woke/#comment-4939558
Thus, by 1981, physics had enjoyed two hundred years of explosive growth. Discovery after discovery deepened our understanding of nature, because in each case theory and experiment had marched hand in hand. New ideas were tested and confirmed and new experimental discoveries were explained in terms of theory. Then, in the early 1980s, things ground to a halt.
I am a member of the first generation of physicists educated since the standard model of particle physics was established. When I meet old friends from college and graduate school, we sometimes ask each other, “What have we discovered that our generation can be proud of?” If we mean new fundamental discoveries, established by experiment and explained by theory—discoveries on the scale of those just mentioned—the answer, we have to admit, is “Nothing!”
In the field of humanities, serious thinkers were almost exclusively Gentiles, with a smattering of German Jews (Erich Auerbach) or sometimes Russians (Roman Jakobson, Viktor Shklovsky). Then, in the past 30 – 40 years, serious scholars are even less Jewish (litcrit, linguistics, parts of philosophy, ..), the only exception of truly encyclopedic scholars being late musicologist Richard Taruskin.
They don’t make euro-Jews as they used to.
But they don’t make euro-Gentiles, either.
Another factor could be attraction to other fields, in computers Jews are definitely underrepresented in many fundamental and important developments. Biology got a lot more exciting after DNA was figured out. "Good times make soft Jews."
Increasingly lots of us euro-Gentiles don't get an opportunity to become scientists, and I'm sure I don't have to tell you about the economics of the academic path. You could even debate how "good" the times are for a very large fraction of us, while I grant you we aren't starving like a quarter of Americans did by design under FDR (perhaps it's not so bad farmers aren't as politically powerful as they were back then).Replies: @Jack D, @Jim Don Bob
First, we now know all of the fundamental physical laws that govern the everyday physical world: from chemical bonding to solid-state physics to stellar structure. We have plucked the (relatively) low-hanging fruit.
Second, the huge influx of money from 1945 through 1980 let us go for broke without worrying about developing experimental technology along a path that could be sustained long term. I remember around 1980 attending a summer school at SLAC that featured discussions of what to do when just building larger and larger particle accelerators would become obviously impossible. Interesting discussions, nothing much came of them.
Perhaps most important, it is really tough to get tenure by pursuing the deep issues that still plague fundamental physics -- notably the foundational problems of quantum mechanics. This year's Nobel prize is really important because it awards people who did just that -- notably Clauser and Aspect -- but they were taking a real risk with their careers.
I'm actually working on some of those issues, but I am not part of the academic mainstream, competing for tenure and grants. Similarly with my friend Sabine Hossenfelder.
In another thread, someone suggested that sometimes fields of endeavor simply require a period of going fallow.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bardon Kaldian, @Sam Malone, @Prester John
Do the populations taking the LSAT and MCAT (and what about the GRE?) have the same racial demographics as the population taking the SAT?
Are there vastly more Asian grad students per capita compared to whites? Maybe something like 20 out of 100 versus 10 out of 100? Is this taken into account when looking at average applicant scores?
The more you study, the higher you score. It holds true even for undergraduate mathematics and physics.
Maybe this reflects the amount of test coaching: lots of coaching when the kid is still at home and under the thumb of his tiger mom, less coaching after four years of cultural assimilation to the more easy-going American norm and having gained some independence from said tiger mom.
The rewards for acing the MCAT or LSAT are significantly higher than the SAT.
Getting into an elite (sic) school is not what it used to be, especially for white males who, you know, and good at noticing such things.
The SAT compares a wide range of dopey high school students while the postgrad exams compare people who are 1) reasonably successful college students and 2) some four years older and supposedly more mature.
So these Asian kids are like top athletes moving up to the SEC after starring at Lee’s Summit High School. They might find the competition a little tougher. Or maybe leaving a strict Tiger Mom Asian-American home and going to an American university has a dumbing-down effect
Lots of foreigners are taking the GRE without enough English skills and doing poorly on it. They are all Asians since having a graduate degree is a fierce status marker for them. So I'd be careful about "which" Asians are skewing the GRE scores. Are they American-born or recent imports?
As to the SAT, those are heavily prepped, American-born Asians who are still trying to please their parents at 17 years old.Replies: @Unintended Consequence
Supposedly the MCAT is now more geared toward reading comprehension and less oriented towards math and science compared to the past. The LSAT has always been geared towards reading. This would give nerdy whites more of an advantage, or less of a disadvantage.
It was done because although blacks failed reading comprehension and verbal logic they were hidden geniuses who would excel at pictorial sudoku.
Didn’t work at all. Turned out blacks were even worse at the new non verbal reasoning and logic sections. Even more failures than when reading comprehension was half the test.
The Supreme Court will do what it will about this case. As the Supreme Court has been doing since Marbury vs Madison 1804. If the naive Men of UNZ think that the abortion ruling means the court will rule favorably for conservative issues such as merit job hiring and college admission think again.
It’s the height of naïveté and ignorance for a White person to advocate for non Whites. The Asians have the Chinese government behind them. A far more powerful lobby than the blacks and Hispanics have. We idiot self destructive Whites being the only group in America that doesn’t lobby for itself.
And if the Supreme Court rules that Harvard discriminated against Asians it doesn’t mean affirmative action discrimination against Whites will ever end.Replies: @Nicholas Stix, @Twinkie
People tend to forgot (or just never mention) that Asians cheat the most.
You’d have to look very specifically at what the test questions are to make an assessment. In the olden days it was basically logic problems involving simple math and geometry and some vocabulary analogies and reading comprehension. It was basically an IQ test. And of course the results correlated highly with later college success.
My understanding is that they changed the format a few years ago and that’s when Asians (who aleady did best) really pulled away from whites. I dont know what they changed. But to really understand what’s going on you would have to know what the change was and have some data on how different groups score on each question or question type. The SAT people certainly have that data. Does anybody else?
My guess is that they made it more about knowledge and subject matter memorization than g-loaded IQ type questions. They probably did this in the hope that it would raise up the sores of lower IQ groups. But instead it rewarded lots of hours of studying and thus Asians benefitted most.
This would count as being “broken” if the higher Asian scores were not adding extra information about predicting their college grades. Nobody but the SAT people would have access to that data I assume.
The SAT designers only think the test is “broken” insofar as white males score too high. So they have been systematically trying to keep their scores down by throwing out any questions they do better on. I doubt they care about “too-high” Asian scores (except insofar as Asian males are doing better than females).
Even if you make it a test of SWPL stuff , Asians will just memorize those facts. Here is an analogy question (remember when the SAT had analogies): Blacks are to white people as white people are to ________.Replies: @AnotherDad, @Hypnotoad666
They tried to make the SAT more black friendly by reducing the g-loading, and instead made it more cram-school vulnerable to the advantage of Asians.
Asians are also pulling away because of state govs and charities pushing the SAT on lower IQ students.
Since fewer Asians than any other racial group are low IQ, the expansion of the testing population decreases their absolute performance the least, which in turn increases their normed performance.
“ The SAT designers only think the test is “broken” insofar as white males score too high. ”
Only thing I disagree with. The gigantic asian-black gap is the single biggest evidence against IQ egalitarianism. That is their single biggest issue. And the biggest HS AA flashpoints are pretty much all black v asian; Lowell, Boston Latin, Bronx Science, Thomas Jefferson HS.
To some extent the 2nd tier Cal State is Asian v Hispanic. Not many blacks or whites want to go to lower tier Cal publics, but Asians want a cheap education and more practical Hispanic parents know their kids can’t handle UCLA or Berkeley.
Aristotle said that the greatest mental ability that exists is to be good at metaphors. Someone else said that metaphor ability is the only thing that cannot be taught to a person by another person. Metaphors are all around us, and add interest and fun to life. This is bidirectional; that is, recognizing one when you see it, and also, coming up with one, which is the most fun. Hah! Take that, Chinese high-SAT guy. Is that your best shot, SafeNow? No, I’ve got creativity, but that one has been observed a lot.
Blacks sexually mature more rapidly than other Races, on average. Asians mentally mature more rapidly than other Races, on average. An 18 year old Asian taking the SAT may be where a Caucasian is at 23. Problem is, Asians plateau and they are done, Caucasians continue developing for a variable amount of time. In any case, imagination is a valuable, not easily testable, skill dominated by Whites.
As to SAT scores……. I hate to harp on the subject, but cheating is rife. Go to tests that have extreme anti-cheating protocols in place ( in my case, A+, CCNA, and so forth) and there is no Asian test advantage. Coincidence, I am sure.
This
Agree, or possibly there is cheating going on by ‘international’ Asian students who want to go to US colleges for undergrad that drags the average score up higher than would normally be the case.
I went to a university that had a famously large Asian undergraduate population, 30-40% possibly. Surprisingly, the law school was only 5-10% Asian, with the rest of the class mostly White. Quite the contrast when leaving the law building and walking around campus. A sizeable percentage of the Asians were Indians. There were also almost as many Koreans as Chinese, which is surprising given the relative size of their populations. As other commenters on Twitter have pointed out, Koreans seem to prize law unlike Chinese, at least that was my impression based off Netflix, where there seems to be quite a lot of Korean shows on lawyers. In contrast, most Chinese seem to have a disdainful attitude of lawyers. It’s very much “you become doctor”, whereas in White families it’s “you become doctor or lawyer”, with White families tending to equate doctor and lawyer as equally good professions. Asians tend to be less confrontational as well, which is a hindrance in the law field. Koreans seem unique among the NE Asians for being quite combative. Maybe because of their history of being caught between their much larger neighbors China and Japan. So I think there is some selection bias with dumber Asians and more atypical Asians going to law school.
The contrast between the SAT and MCAT result can’t be explained because of Asian selection bias because Asian families really do push their kids to become doctors. One thing I’ve noticed is that on TikTok there seems to be a lot of smart, rural, White doctors. I guess the algorithm has figured out I enjoy watching videos on medical advice. I wouldn’t be surprised if smart, rural, White kids are more likely to go into medicine rather than law because of law’s general snobbiness and having to move to a big city to practice BigLaw. I don’t think the effect is big enough to explain most of the MCAT vs SAT discrepancy, but maybe these neglected brains, as Steve has rightly pointed out, are providing a slight White selection bias on the White MCAT scores relatively.
Other than medicine, Asians these days are focused on engineering and finance. These fields require spatial and quantitative abilities that are better suited for their attitudes. They also pay extremely well. Law and medicine don’t pay as well as they used to. Even if they do pay well, it’s a lot of hard work, and you’re probably making less per hour than you could have in Tech or finance. Asians also go into these fields because they don’t require a graduate degree. Many Asian families discourage their daughters from going to graduate school, even medical school, because they will be too old to have a good marriage after a Masters + PhD or medical school + residency.
I think a lot of smart Asians are not getting picked up by the LSAT, MCAT, GRE, etc. because of selection bias. But I also think test prep may explain some of the discrepancy.
I think there is still a ceiling based off your IQ, but test prep is necessary to maximize your score. I scored a 171 on the LSAT which I believe is 98%. I pirated some old tests, read a book on how to approach logic games, and took the LSAT twice. I probably could have boosted my score a little bit if I got some really good personalized tutoring to iron out my blind spots. But anyways, my first practice test without any test prep was atrocious, probably below 25%. There is a little bit of art to taking these standardized tests that you have to learn first to maximize your score.
In my opinion, the SAT is less g loaded than the LSAT and easier to prep for.
That being said, I’ve come around to the view that a good work ethic is more important than IQ. I was a “splitter”, high LSAT and low GPA, ie smart but lazy. Most highly successful and effective lawyers I’ve met aren’t geniuses, but they’re all very hardworking. So I don’t think it’s such a tragedy that you can get ahead with test prep.
Cheating is a different story, but I think it’s mostly cope that Asian-Americans are cheating more, although international students have wider variance. They can include some real bona fide geniuses, and also some scam artists. My rule of thumb, if they’re at a Tier 1 or maybe a Tier 2 institution, they’re probably the real deal. If they’re at a Tier 3 institution or lower, they’re probably trash and all their credentials are fake.
The Dutch and Flemings are in a similar position. These three groups' traditions are Lutheran, Calvinist, and Catholic, respectively, so the difference isn't rooted in (now-moribund) religion.
Perhaps flat land? Magic dirt!
Presumably the grad school exam population is taken from the top of the college exam population. The example I’m most familiar with is the math subject GRE (the one that math PhD applicants take, not the general one). Something like 10-15% of takers get the maximum score on it.
Could also be some score compression issues as well, if the mappings from raw score to numerical score on the grad exams are significantly different from that of the SAT.
Maybe over-achieving accelerates brain maturation and asians have smaller standard deviation.
Whites reach their genetic potential later so the IQ difference could be smaller in adults.
Developmental noise fades away from 18 to 24 when liquid IQ usually maxes out.
Maybe this is enhanced by naturally smaller standard deviation of asians in the more selected post-grad Universities.
It’s all about g. The 1978 SAT and g had a 0.85 correlation coeffient. The 2022 SAT and g has a correlation coeficient of only 0.48. The MCAT and LSAT still robustly correlate with g, which is why Mensa presently accepts them as proof of intelligence while they no longer accept composite ACT scores after 1989 or SAT scores after 1994.
https://www.us.mensa.org/join/testscores/qualifying-test-scores/What is your source for the SAT/g correlations? The numbers you give sound like Frey and Detterman 2004.
Scholastic Assessment or g?
The Relationship Between the Scholastic Assessment Test and General Cognitive Ability
https://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/ps/Frey.pdf?origin=publication_detail Meredith Frey did an update in 2019.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337711376_What_We_Know_Are_Still_Getting_Wrong_and_Have_Yet_to_Learn_about_the_Relationships_among_the_SAT_Intelligence_and_Achievement
What We Know, Are Still Getting Wrong, and Have Yet to Learn about the Relationships among the SAT, Intelligence and AchievementBut I am not seeing data about more recent SATs there.
I think all of the other explanations so far are reasonable and generally agree with them, but one thing I’d like to know is if the smaller gap is because average White scores are relatively higher on MCAT/LSAT than SAT, or because average Asian scores are relatively lower, or both?
A lot of the people who get the lowest SAT scores will, of course, not end up taking postgrad admissions tests at all. (Some of them don’t even bother to go to undergrad at all… shh…) This doesn’t really matter for Blacks and “Hispanics,” since they’ll always be bringing up the rear regardless.
But if more of the left half of the White SAT-taking bell curve is absent from the MCAT/LSAT test-taking group than their Asian equivalents, I’d think this would lower the gap, since their relative talent advantage (or whatever we ascribe their dominance on the SAT to) against the palefaces is depressed.
Being a current med student w/ a second-gen immigrant background, I think there is an element of how strong the self-selection is for the pools. I think a big part of the Asian/White gap has much more to do w/ conscientiousness(innate perhaps, but also greatly developed through cultural pressures). The IQ gap just doesn’t seem that huge. In the SAT-taking pool of generally HSers asians today are gonna dominate. However, suppose you can get through pre-med prereqs and are confident enough to take the MCAT and apply to med school. In that case, the differences in conscientiousness are significantly lowered in the pool that gets that far. I don’t know how much the MCAT correlates w/ g, probably a decent amount, but at the end of the day it’s a very content-heavy exam.
What all that means for the SAT is that the cultural values that would uphold academic rigor seem to have dissipated significantly in white America, which doesn’t seem to be a great development.
Perhaps the smarter Asians aren’t going into law or medicine.
Selection bias leading to restriction of range? The SAT is fairly common to take. The LSAT is presumably more restricted range where anyone less than (say 2/3) of an SD above average just doesn’t take it. That would compress differences down to being rather small.
Whether they cheat or not, should international Asian students be allowed into US colleges? Universities exist to educate the populace of the nation. Bringing in these foreigners just creates more competition against Americans.
I'd say the same for the out-of-state students who also pay full tuition. These entities exist for the purpose of educating the kids of that state, not some other locale. I pay taxes directly and indirectly for the community/state/university schools in my area, and they're chock full of people from all around the world. screw that.
The contrast between the SAT and MCAT result can’t be explained because of Asian selection bias because Asian families really do push their kids to become doctors. One thing I’ve noticed is that on TikTok there seems to be a lot of smart, rural, White doctors. I guess the algorithm has figured out I enjoy watching videos on medical advice. I wouldn’t be surprised if smart, rural, White kids are more likely to go into medicine rather than law because of law’s general snobbiness and having to move to a big city to practice BigLaw. I don’t think the effect is big enough to explain most of the MCAT vs SAT discrepancy, but maybe these neglected brains, as Steve has rightly pointed out, are providing a slight White selection bias on the White MCAT scores relatively.
Other than medicine, Asians these days are focused on engineering and finance. These fields require spatial and quantitative abilities that are better suited for their attitudes. They also pay extremely well. Law and medicine don’t pay as well as they used to. Even if they do pay well, it’s a lot of hard work, and you’re probably making less per hour than you could have in Tech or finance. Asians also go into these fields because they don’t require a graduate degree. Many Asian families discourage their daughters from going to graduate school, even medical school, because they will be too old to have a good marriage after a Masters + PhD or medical school + residency.Replies: @BRK2, @Steve Sailer, @Twinkie, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar
To continue on my comment:
I think a lot of smart Asians are not getting picked up by the LSAT, MCAT, GRE, etc. because of selection bias. But I also think test prep may explain some of the discrepancy.
I think there is still a ceiling based off your IQ, but test prep is necessary to maximize your score. I scored a 171 on the LSAT which I believe is 98%. I pirated some old tests, read a book on how to approach logic games, and took the LSAT twice. I probably could have boosted my score a little bit if I got some really good personalized tutoring to iron out my blind spots. But anyways, my first practice test without any test prep was atrocious, probably below 25%. There is a little bit of art to taking these standardized tests that you have to learn first to maximize your score.
In my opinion, the SAT is less g loaded than the LSAT and easier to prep for.
That being said, I’ve come around to the view that a good work ethic is more important than IQ. I was a “splitter”, high LSAT and low GPA, ie smart but lazy. Most highly successful and effective lawyers I’ve met aren’t geniuses, but they’re all very hardworking. So I don’t think it’s such a tragedy that you can get ahead with test prep.
Cheating is a different story, but I think it’s mostly cope that Asian-Americans are cheating more, although international students have wider variance. They can include some real bona fide geniuses, and also some scam artists. My rule of thumb, if they’re at a Tier 1 or maybe a Tier 2 institution, they’re probably the real deal. If they’re at a Tier 3 institution or lower, they’re probably trash and all their credentials are fake.
I dunno Steve, when I took the LSAT there were questions posed in terms of network diagrams. It wasn’t all reading comprehension. I didn’t prep for it and I didn’t do well.
The SAT is basically a spelling bee and Asians take prep courses for it. Anyone with an ounce of sense at least works through a prep book. Maybe they don’t take prep courses for the MCAT or LSAT?
My understanding is that they changed the format a few years ago and that's when Asians (who aleady did best) really pulled away from whites. I dont know what they changed. But to really understand what's going on you would have to know what the change was and have some data on how different groups score on each question or question type. The SAT people certainly have that data. Does anybody else?
My guess is that they made it more about knowledge and subject matter memorization than g-loaded IQ type questions. They probably did this in the hope that it would raise up the sores of lower IQ groups. But instead it rewarded lots of hours of studying and thus Asians benefitted most.
This would count as being "broken" if the higher Asian scores were not adding extra information about predicting their college grades. Nobody but the SAT people would have access to that data I assume.
The SAT designers only think the test is "broken" insofar as white males score too high. So they have been systematically trying to keep their scores down by throwing out any questions they do better on. I doubt they care about "too-high" Asian scores (except insofar as Asian males are doing better than females).Replies: @Jack D, @Pixo, @Renard
Aside from the fact that you are pulling this out of your ass without any proof that this is actually being done, what sort of questions would white males do better on than other groups (that do better than they – i.e. Asians)? The essence of g is that it stands for general intelligence or the ability to memorize data and process all sorts of problems. So it is pretty much impossible to design a test on which dumber people do equally well as smarter people. God knows that test writers have been trying for decades. There is a billion $ bill lying in the street for whoever can write such a test (in order to level the playing field for blacks) but it can’t be done. And for the same reason, it’s impossible to write a test that favors whites over Asians.
Even if you make it a test of SWPL stuff , Asians will just memorize those facts. Here is an analogy question (remember when the SAT had analogies): Blacks are to white people as white people are to ________.
I believe that is a skill that more directly tests IQ, and would show a smaller, more accurate white-Asian gap (though I think there are some other things going on) than the current test.Replies: @Jack D
My understanding is that they changed the format a few years ago and that's when Asians (who aleady did best) really pulled away from whites. I dont know what they changed. But to really understand what's going on you would have to know what the change was and have some data on how different groups score on each question or question type. The SAT people certainly have that data. Does anybody else?
My guess is that they made it more about knowledge and subject matter memorization than g-loaded IQ type questions. They probably did this in the hope that it would raise up the sores of lower IQ groups. But instead it rewarded lots of hours of studying and thus Asians benefitted most.
This would count as being "broken" if the higher Asian scores were not adding extra information about predicting their college grades. Nobody but the SAT people would have access to that data I assume.
The SAT designers only think the test is "broken" insofar as white males score too high. So they have been systematically trying to keep their scores down by throwing out any questions they do better on. I doubt they care about "too-high" Asian scores (except insofar as Asian males are doing better than females).Replies: @Jack D, @Pixo, @Renard
Correct.
They tried to make the SAT more black friendly by reducing the g-loading, and instead made it more cram-school vulnerable to the advantage of Asians.
Asians are also pulling away because of state govs and charities pushing the SAT on lower IQ students.
Since fewer Asians than any other racial group are low IQ, the expansion of the testing population decreases their absolute performance the least, which in turn increases their normed performance.
“ The SAT designers only think the test is “broken” insofar as white males score too high. ”
Only thing I disagree with. The gigantic asian-black gap is the single biggest evidence against IQ egalitarianism. That is their single biggest issue. And the biggest HS AA flashpoints are pretty much all black v asian; Lowell, Boston Latin, Bronx Science, Thomas Jefferson HS.
To some extent the 2nd tier Cal State is Asian v Hispanic. Not many blacks or whites want to go to lower tier Cal publics, but Asians want a cheap education and more practical Hispanic parents know their kids can’t handle UCLA or Berkeley.
The SAT has been useful as an n=infinity large sample size, demographically representative, high stakes proxy for an IQ test. “All tests are IQ tests, with some noise.”
Is there data on Asian performance on low-stakes actual IQ tests, or do they even give those any more?
An idea might be for the College Board/ETS, given that the tests are given via computer now, to hide a real IQ test inside the SAT. They already hide test questions that are not scored but are being auditioned for future tests. They could add high g-loaded vocabulary questions and “racist” questions like the old analogy questions, which would not affect the score, but would create data for internal researchers to analyze.
OT: Sailer superfan Anna Khachiyan again mentioned Steve Sailer this week in her podcast, at two different places. She is impressed that Steve says what he thinks and has been able to do so without cancellation, and she says that she’d like to get a job in Tucker Carlson’s writer’s room, but fears she’d be fired for mentioning Sailer too much.
Is this freaking cool or what? Couple of Ukrainian cops firing Kalashikovs in SEMI-AUTOMATIC shoot down a Russkie suicide drone!
OK, one other and probably big thing: not familiar with 5.45×39mm ballistics which they were perhaps using, but I'm pretty sure their rapid fire started before the drone was in truly effective range. That gave them some seconds to settle down and potentially more accurately aim their final shots which were at a slower pace nine seconds after they started, I'd bet one of them did the trick.
Indeed amazing, especially since I assume wing shooting is not a common sport or recreational activity in the Ukraine.
Also, these kamikaze drones, do they scream "banzai!" before impact?
Or are "suicide" and "kamikaze" just propaganda buzzwords put in by The Associated Pederasts and the rest of the LSM to rile up the gullible? Ie., we use "smart bombs" while those devils use "suicide drones".Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
That’s an excellent observation IJ.
Tiger Mom on your ass, versus hanging out with your college peers (Asian and White).
I had this Asian kid in scouts–good kid, good attitude, enjoyed scouting. We had some cool, fun adventures lined up for the summer–rafting the mighty Salmon River. (Which btw is a hoot–recommend.) I noticed he wasn’t signed up–odd, he was active, doing stuff on the Eagle scout track. Man, you’re only going to be 16 once–nows the time to have these adventures. But no, he was going to be in some test prep camp all summer.
Just ridiculous.
I remember reading that Ichiro Suzuki's dad, let his son play with his friends six hours per
year. The rest of the time he had to practice baseball.
Part of Nerfing the SAT was making it more of a robotic content drilling test.
Sure, like almost anything, you could say content drilling is “correlated to IQ.” Nonetheless, in the real world Asians are doing more superstudying.
Even if you make it a test of SWPL stuff , Asians will just memorize those facts. Here is an analogy question (remember when the SAT had analogies): Blacks are to white people as white people are to ________.Replies: @AnotherDad, @Hypnotoad666
Pulled out of his ass or not, the SAT designers have been trying to do this. Getting rid of the analogies–pretty core verbal logical reasoning, and very IQy–was done specifically to try to make the test “fairer” to women and minorities.
I believe that is a skill that more directly tests IQ, and would show a smaller, more accurate white-Asian gap (though I think there are some other things going on) than the current test.
OTOH, the main goal of testing has been to dumb down tests so that blacks do better. The last thing they want to do is increase the g loading. This has had the side effect of causing many Asians to ceiling out on the test. 1600s were once rare but now there are thousands.
So I repeat my question - how would you construct a test that specifically harmed white males without harming Asians as well?Replies: @Anonymous, @Whereismyhandle, @AnotherDad, @dux.ie
I believe one aspect of the rising gap–I believe Twinkie has pointed at this–is simply more Indian.
Outside of Sikhs and some Gujus running hotels, there isn’t very much “normie” immigration from India (much less from the lowest castes). But there is a high influx of Brahmins and some elite merchant castes, who generally get here to work in tech, often by getting a masters in CS or EE or an MBA from American university.
I.e. Indians in America are a highly selected population and they tend to have kids who if not matching their parents are generally at least solidly “college material” and often quite sharp. (I know several in both categories.) So more of them relative to other groups pushes the Asian-white gap open wider.
Does Steve and the commenters realize what year this is????? Most colleges including the top 20 have made the SATs and ACTs optional. And the kids aren’t taking them and both private and prole high schools don’t emphasize them. The applicants and their high schools know what counts in college applications; the groveling sniveling admissions essay and race race race.
As I endlessly repeat, it’s 2022 not 1972 when the Men of UNZ applied to college. Do you all live on the internet? Do you know any high school counselors high school kids or their parents or the present day college admission process? Obviously not.
https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/0f/35/75/3b/fishing-boats-sit-on.jpg
"SAT optional" is not optional if you're white or Asian without some truly amazing sob story (even if you're a recruited athlete). The various college ratings entities require that that least X% (usually 80%) of all students submit standardized tests if they are to be included in rankings. So schools are very careful to get the bottom 19.9% of SAT scorers that they want to admit (ie, most blacks and some other NAMs) to avoid submitting standardized tests. If you're anybody else, you're not getting in without them. The only places where they don't matter is where they will not accept them from any applicants --the UC system being the prime example.
Nationally competitive private high schools that send a large fraction of their graduates to top 10 colleges (my kids are in one) care a huge amount about SATs / ACTs, typically organizing material in-school support and counting on the fact that more or less every student is doing private coaching. They just understand the zeitgeist well enough to not trumpet this.Replies: @stillCARealist
PISA scores for US Whites and US Asians shows a very modest gap. Nothing like the craziness you see on the SAT.
The test is famously hard – if not impossible – to prep for. So it isn’t just grad school tests where you see a much smaller difference than on the SAT/ACT.
In addition, only 1/3rd of PISA is dedicated verbal intelligence testing, with the other two thirds being maths and science. Some people explained away MCAT and LSAT for simply too geared towards verbal IQ but that doesn’t apply in this case.
—
On GRE; Asians aren’t pulling ahead either.
2016-2021: https://www.ets.org/pdfs/gre/snapshot.pdf
Trend seems mostly stable with Asians clustering fairly closely with Whites.
There was a one-off(?) unz.com claiming that Asians cognitively matured faster to roughly the same ability as whites. Don’t think he had much evidence. Asian boys can certainly sit still and pay attention as well as white kids a few years older, but is that personality or maturity?
Girls mature faster than boys. Do Asian PSAT/SAT to GRE/LSAT/MCAT/DAT test score pattern mirror women’s?
On the PSAT, has that changed a lot? If it hasn’t, it might be the best intelligence test for teenagers that we have, or at least will use.
If I remember correctly, Flynn had evidence that Asian IQ used to be lower in the US. But, Asian Americans must be getting better nutrition than Asians in Asia.
What have Brahmin Indians been selected for that could have made them smarter? They do religious ceremonies historically, right? Objectively, there’s no effect from doing a religious ritual badly, except for how the participants feel. Are they good at exploiting/giving people the positive psychological effects of religion? The Brahmins are certainly all-in on being the high priests of woke.
I believe that is a skill that more directly tests IQ, and would show a smaller, more accurate white-Asian gap (though I think there are some other things going on) than the current test.Replies: @Jack D
If you make a test more g loaded (more like an IQ test) then the higher IQ group will do even better. All evidence indicates that Asians are the (slightly) higher IQ group.
OTOH, the main goal of testing has been to dumb down tests so that blacks do better. The last thing they want to do is increase the g loading. This has had the side effect of causing many Asians to ceiling out on the test. 1600s were once rare but now there are thousands.
So I repeat my question – how would you construct a test that specifically harmed white males without harming Asians as well?
Spelling tests are IQ-correlated. That's not the reason why EVERY finalist is Indian. Indian-American parents have a thing about forcing spelling bee prep on their kids. It's part of the culture now.
The LSAT is less amenable to prep but insofar as there is prep white college students who choose to take it may practice about as much as Asians. The parents aren't in charge anymore.
I expect Asians do better on GMAT because they're more likely to take math classes in undergrad than whites.
They've made the SAT more content-laden and less of an IQ test. That along with the weaker scoring makes the SAT more of a box to tick off well-prepared smart kids, like getting a 5 in AP History, than a test to identify raw talent that hasn't had a place to shine in a random public school system in this giant country.
I'm agnostic on the question of the whether the Asian-white gap is going up mostly because of
-- Asian test prep really getting a number on the test, and more Asians test prepping harder
or
-- HBD, smarter Asians from selective immigration of smarter Asian groupsI strongly suspect both are involved.Replies: @dux.ie
https://leadershipblog.act.org/2018/09/oecd-selects-act-to-develop-pisa-2021.html .Replies: @dux.ie
Girls mature faster than boys. Do Asian PSAT/SAT to GRE/LSAT/MCAT/DAT test score pattern mirror women’s?
On the PSAT, has that changed a lot? If it hasn’t, it might be the best intelligence test for teenagers that we have, or at least will use.
If I remember correctly, Flynn had evidence that Asian IQ used to be lower in the US. But, Asian Americans must be getting better nutrition than Asians in Asia.
What have Brahmin Indians been selected for that could have made them smarter? They do religious ceremonies historically, right? Objectively, there’s no effect from doing a religious ritual badly, except for how the participants feel. Are they good at exploiting/giving people the positive psychological effects of religion? The Brahmins are certainly all-in on being the high priests of woke.Replies: @Jack D, @AnotherDad
For one thing, clergy have to be able to read and write. Historically, in Europe the clergy were the best educated group. (Making them celibate in Catholic countries was perhaps not the best idea). In Ukraine, where Ukrainians were mostly peasants, Eastern Orthodox priests were just about the only Ukrainians who could read and were the leaders of the Ukrainian speaking community.
On the celibate priesthood, it's a mixed bag. Some quality genes were wasted ... on the other hand *not* letting a separate priestly caste develop was an enormously good thing. Feudalism/caste systems suck.
Since the priests were generally just spare sons of the nobility and gentry, European society really only had two "castes"--the nobility and commoners. And the nobility was continually sucking up the attractive and/or rich girls from the upper gentry.
So European nations really are quite one-peoplish which is a very good thing. Much, much, much, much, much better than the caste division you see in India--real endogamy--or the similar sort thing between Jews and gentiles in Europe.
The best program is no caste/tribal division and continual downward mobility. You have one people, less contention and genes from the most successful are continual flowing down through the population and the idiots, unhealthy, flakes, layabouts continually dying off. This is what enabled European peoples to get smart and breakout. (And seems to be the East Asian pattern as well.)
Of course, the problem we have now--beyond the obvious immivasion debacle--is that the downward mobility has stopped. Modernity and feminism/female careerism have destroyed the link between good-genes/success and fertility.Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
I don’t think this captures the issue – the SAT is supposed to be a “Scholastic Aptitude Test,” which was so reliable a proxy for an IQ test that MENSA would accept one’s SAT score in lieu of an IQ test.
In the naive but still optimistic 1990s when the mania for diversity really started taking off, the powers that be seem to have made the decision that it was necessary to “recenter” the SAT such that the falling average score (which was the result of expanding college as a middle class consumer good and having more non-Prep white male types taking the test) should be moved back to a 1,000. I recall it was actually admitted and spoken about openly at the time that this was because more non-traditional college aspirants were taking the test.
But I don’t think it had the desired effect of masking the underperformance of certain favored groups, so like in the children’s nursery song “The Old Lady who Swallowed a Fly,” the powers that decide these things swallowed a bird to catch the spider to catch the fly. My guess is that they thought that making changes away from a pure g-loaded objective test of colored ovals to a more subjective process eventually including study subjects and essays would help close the black-white gap. Since IQ isn’t real and humans are ever malleable for good ends, we could immerse blacks into an SAT preparation regime via urban public schools, while white suburban kids would be left to find their own SAT prep courses – the gap would therefore close and we could all finally realize MLK’s dream in full.
They didn’t account for Asian Tiger Moms, who found the less objective SAT infinitely more “hackable” via test prep and drilling and sample essay coaching and so forth. No longer a test of pure aptitude (viz, raw intelligence), the test was a test in the traditional sense of mastery of a universe of material which could be more readily accomplished through rote repetition as a stand-in for innate aptitude. If it wasn’t illegal you could probably measure the delta between the IQ of Asian test-takers and the SAT scores of the same Asian test-takers. You’re probably looking at a couple standard deviations between intelligence and test scores of Asians attributable to drilling and immersive test prep. In Steve’s graphs it was the mid to late 1990s when Asians started pulling away from everyone including the white population – a modest five to ten point intelligence premium should not have yielded this overperformance.
Additionally, I think it’s a sort of open secret in academia that foreign born students, particularly the Chinese, are beneficiaries of an espionage campaign to preview the SAT which is administered later in the year in China. But since Chinese students pay full freight tuition in U.S. colleges, there’s little impetus to root out industrial scale Chinese cheating at the expense of American applicants.
FYI the LSAT eliminated the verbal logic and reasoning; syllogisms and analogies decades ago and replaced them with something like sudoku. But not numbers pictures. And greatly reduced the reading comprehension part of the test.
It was done because although blacks failed reading comprehension and verbal logic they were hidden geniuses who would excel at pictorial sudoku.
Didn’t work at all. Turned out blacks were even worse at the new non verbal reasoning and logic sections. Even more failures than when reading comprehension was half the test.
The Supreme Court will do what it will about this case. As the Supreme Court has been doing since Marbury vs Madison 1804. If the naive Men of UNZ think that the abortion ruling means the court will rule favorably for conservative issues such as merit job hiring and college admission think again.
It’s the height of naïveté and ignorance for a White person to advocate for non Whites. The Asians have the Chinese government behind them. A far more powerful lobby than the blacks and Hispanics have. We idiot self destructive Whites being the only group in America that doesn’t lobby for itself.
And if the Supreme Court rules that Harvard discriminated against Asians it doesn’t mean affirmative action discrimination against Whites will ever end.
OTOH, the main goal of testing has been to dumb down tests so that blacks do better. The last thing they want to do is increase the g loading. This has had the side effect of causing many Asians to ceiling out on the test. 1600s were once rare but now there are thousands.
So I repeat my question - how would you construct a test that specifically harmed white males without harming Asians as well?Replies: @Anonymous, @Whereismyhandle, @AnotherDad, @dux.ie
What would happen if you did not test for creativity, organizational acumen, sense of fair play?
Asians love to cheat.
I tend to think most of the commentators (above) are on the right track.
More test prep courses (back in my day, there were none where I lived) and more studying in general. Parental involvement.
Perhaps someone in the vast, mostly useless or harmful “education establishment” can or will do a rigorous study on the time usage by high school students on a daily basis, seven days a week.
How much time spent on cell phone gaming, TikTok, various other teen oriented sites, gabbing and texting back and forth? How much on reading text books and doing homework, and doing all the problems? Reading for extra credit (or for own personal interest?)
Then of course just routine like extra curricular activities (sports, music, theater, cheer, debate, etc.) and transit time to school (bus, walk, being driven) and “hanging out”. Etc.
I suspect that high achieving groups would show far more study than the non achieving groups. No “midnight basketball” etc. Also more likely two parent households with at least one parent holding a college degree, not divorced, etc. Having jobs, being sober and no criminal record.
Asians tend to have (like other races) peer groups of similar background/race. You tend to compete with your friends. Also important “future orientation” values. “What do you plan to do in five years?” etc.
Even moderately intelligent kids can benefit from solid parental guidance. Those who lack that (“who’s your daddy?) will have to rely on pure IQ, which is hard in test scenarios.
I suspect “family values” are at least half of the reason for higher test scores. This includes living in a good school district, being sober and disciplining your kids. Controlling time waste.
A simpler marker might be “how many books have you read in the last six months?”
While they probably can no longer speak openly or honestly about this, I suspect school counselors know these things already.
OTOH, the main goal of testing has been to dumb down tests so that blacks do better. The last thing they want to do is increase the g loading. This has had the side effect of causing many Asians to ceiling out on the test. 1600s were once rare but now there are thousands.
So I repeat my question - how would you construct a test that specifically harmed white males without harming Asians as well?Replies: @Anonymous, @Whereismyhandle, @AnotherDad, @dux.ie
Superstudy tests. More asians cram thanks to asian parents.
Spelling tests are IQ-correlated. That’s not the reason why EVERY finalist is Indian. Indian-American parents have a thing about forcing spelling bee prep on their kids. It’s part of the culture now.
The LSAT is less amenable to prep but insofar as there is prep white college students who choose to take it may practice about as much as Asians. The parents aren’t in charge anymore.
I expect Asians do better on GMAT because they’re more likely to take math classes in undergrad than whites.
They’ve made the SAT more content-laden and less of an IQ test. That along with the weaker scoring makes the SAT more of a box to tick off well-prepared smart kids, like getting a 5 in AP History, than a test to identify raw talent that hasn’t had a place to shine in a random public school system in this giant country.
Maybe this is just pure ignorance, but one thought that occurs to me is that the SAT et al may have been made teachable, and as a consequence, Asians are able to teach themselves to do well on it.
Back in the day, when I took these things (1974-75), you pretty much got what you got. There was only so much you could to prepare.
But of course the problem there was that blacks did very badly. Already, back then they were trying to get around that.
So did they alter the tests make it possible to learn how to do well on them in an effort to overcome that? And were Asians rather than blacks the beneficiaries of that change?
Endless comments about high caste Indians immigrating, actually fleeing to America. And none of the Men of UNZ know why. Because the men of UNZ are ignorant of affirmative action favoritism for Dalits and other low castes in India. Affirmative action for the low castes and discrimination against the higher castes was enacted into law decades ago.
But it didn’t affect the higher castes till the technology revolution arrived. No longer were good careers limited to the family businesses and clan networks. But tech careers depended on university tech education. And the higher castes were severely discriminated against in India.
But in America Indians managed to switch their race from Caucasian to non Caucasian. And the bonanza of affirmative action opened up for them.
I’ve always suspected the big tech companies had a lot to do with the EEOC and the feds switching Indians from Caucasian to non Caucasian affirmative action beneficiaries.
Every industry in America is under the gun to discriminate against White American men. Every industry in America rejoiced when affirmative action became the law of the land. Got rid of all those pesky White man labor unions the 40 hour work week and paid overtime laws made by White men labor union members.
And opened the flood of Hispanics for low skill jobs and Indians and Asians for medical and tech jobs.
That’s why the high caste Indians leave India. To get the education and jobs they can’t get in India because of caste discrimination. White men are the best in medicine and STEM. But between the government and the capitalist pigs they can’t be hired because they are White American men.
The switching happened in 1923, by U.S. Supreme Court. There were no High-Tech companies or EEOC then. The decision also clubbed Indians with Japanese, Chinese etc., to create the "Asians" (the term then was Asiatics). Probably the first attempt to label a majority of humanity.
https://www.nytimes.com/1923/02/20/archives/court-rules-hindu-not-a-white-person-bars-high-caste-native-of.html
I have a prediction for you : gaps in GRE would be somewhere in between and a similar gap in GRE among students who want to study STEM or Economics at PhD levels.Replies: @res
Education Realist looked at the GRE gap in 2012.
https://educationrealist.wordpress.com/2012/01/28/the-gap-in-the-gre/
This post has a graphic I think worth including here.
https://u.osu.edu/scintrohumanities/2020/10/21/dsi-showcase-the-inherent-bias-of-the-gre/
However accurate or otherwise, that’s definitely one of the sanest things I’ve seen you write.
So congrats, sort of.
OTOH, the main goal of testing has been to dumb down tests so that blacks do better. The last thing they want to do is increase the g loading. This has had the side effect of causing many Asians to ceiling out on the test. 1600s were once rare but now there are thousands.
So I repeat my question - how would you construct a test that specifically harmed white males without harming Asians as well?Replies: @Anonymous, @Whereismyhandle, @AnotherDad, @dux.ie
And women. Pulling the analogies was absolutely driven by the relative skew on that section against both blacks and women. Analogies demonstrate actual verbal logical reasoning ability.
Note: I never said that was the goal. I don’t think anything about what they did had anything to do with Asians. It was trying to help blacks/Hispanics do better and women do better, which meant knocking down the g-loading.
What I am suggesting is that in making the SAT less g-loaded they also made it more subject to test prep. (I don’t know this. But I suspect it is true.) Asians are more like girls in being compliant and willing–at least with their Tiger Mom’s nagging them–to put butt in chair and do boring stuff like test prep.
The problem is we don’t have any direct measure of intelligence. All we can do have you do some work that indicates intelligence. But there is *no*–pencil and paper–test that you can’t get better on with practice. (Maybe some reaction time tests? Or something with evoked potentials.) You give me an IQ test and the 2nd time out I’ll probably do better. (The nature of intelligence is the ability to learn.)
But I suspect that practice is even more effective with the sort of dumbed down g-unloaded SAT they give now. Here’s the type of reading comprehension questions they’ll have. This is what to look to and how to attack them. Here’s the set of algebra problems they’ll have on the math section. Here’s what to look for and how to attack them.
I’m agnostic on the question of the whether the Asian-white gap is going up mostly because of
— Asian test prep really getting a number on the test, and more Asians test prepping harder
or
— HBD, smarter Asians from selective immigration of smarter Asian groups
I strongly suspect both are involved.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvIW7VE605wcMmyJdXkkjnQlyAzw6m4TSGWNK0dR88v2cSB33u3_vlowsRk3XkKsBHtUo9_Bi0eBGVrBCYNb4KCxlDv9mu44UQHSRhgyYcK6l1cEi-g2_OUZrn1UZvfrHIesqUGFgApOVWduBNhB-YgroG6E0PwSSbKqsKhbLH9eApxDuFtplBC4DzqQ/s610/satceil2.pngReplies: @Twinkie
Secondly, how many Asian doctors and lawyers can you think of? Those are both fields Asians tend not to enter.Replies: @Renard, @Jonathan Mason, @Anonymous, @Anon, @Alden
Don’t know any Asian lawyers but I do know tons of Asian doctors. In the practice I know best they are replacing white doctors one after another.
I believe Mensa accepts the LSAT but not the MCAT.
https://www.us.mensa.org/join/testscores/qualifying-test-scores/
What is your source for the SAT/g correlations? The numbers you give sound like Frey and Detterman 2004.
Scholastic Assessment or g?
The Relationship Between the Scholastic Assessment Test and General Cognitive Ability
https://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/ps/Frey.pdf?origin=publication_detail
Meredith Frey did an update in 2019.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337711376_What_We_Know_Are_Still_Getting_Wrong_and_Have_Yet_to_Learn_about_the_Relationships_among_the_SAT_Intelligence_and_Achievement
What We Know, Are Still Getting Wrong, and Have Yet to Learn about the Relationships among the SAT, Intelligence and Achievement
But I am not seeing data about more recent SATs there.
My understanding is that they changed the format a few years ago and that's when Asians (who aleady did best) really pulled away from whites. I dont know what they changed. But to really understand what's going on you would have to know what the change was and have some data on how different groups score on each question or question type. The SAT people certainly have that data. Does anybody else?
My guess is that they made it more about knowledge and subject matter memorization than g-loaded IQ type questions. They probably did this in the hope that it would raise up the sores of lower IQ groups. But instead it rewarded lots of hours of studying and thus Asians benefitted most.
This would count as being "broken" if the higher Asian scores were not adding extra information about predicting their college grades. Nobody but the SAT people would have access to that data I assume.
The SAT designers only think the test is "broken" insofar as white males score too high. So they have been systematically trying to keep their scores down by throwing out any questions they do better on. I doubt they care about "too-high" Asian scores (except insofar as Asian males are doing better than females).Replies: @Jack D, @Pixo, @Renard
Sounds legit, which also explains the usual suspects taking issue with it.
I agree with you, but the higher ed industry loves foreign students whose parents will pay the full advertised tuition. Just one of many ways higher ed’s incentives work directly against the interests of most of American society.
These things are pretty much impossible to test for on a paper and pencil test. In fact, they are difficult to objectively measure in any way because more often what is actually being measured are the unconscious biases of the observer.
Whites have an especially good track record with creativity.
OT: “Boston University CREATES a new Covid strain that has an 80% kill rate.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11323677/Outrage-Boston-University-CREATES-Covid-strain-80-kill-rate.html
At this point, we need to start pulling the funding of scientists who do this. Some Biden government weasel had to give the okay to this project to fund it. “Yeah, go ahead, go create a version of Covid that actually kills almost everybody. Peachy-keen idea!”
Why? Why did they bother? Funding cures for coronaviruses is okay, but anyone trying to make more lethal strains of Covid should be charged with a felony and locked up to protect humanity.
The childishness, irresponsibility, and idiocy of this is off the charts. The Biden administration deliberately funded this, which is why they must be kicked out of office before they do any more damage to the rest of the planet. They’re all massive retards.
I’ll add one. If they are working on an actual virus, say coronavirus, they need to create temperature sensitive mutants of two proteins. They can experiment on both attenuated strains in parallel or combine both so that they are working with a doubly attenuated virus. The live attenuated flu vaccine has temperature-sensitive mutations in every “gut” gene, only two envelope proteins are wildtype of the (hopefully) circulating strain. This was possible back in da day wif influenza because they have segmented genomes. Each segment codes for a polypeptide (I think one’s an exception) so temperature sensitive mutants could be isolated for each gene separately, then eggs could be co-infected with two attenuated viruses. When they infect the same cell, new virus particles have mixed genomes, so doubly attenuated viruses can be isolated. We can do this to any virus today, even monopartite ones. There might be a type of virus we can’t engineer, but engineering two virus families with double stranded genomes that do all their replication in their capsids were cleverly solved in the last decade.Making temperature-sensitive proteins is practically a solved problem. Their are at least two ways that can be done in silico without crystal structures, not even of homologous proteins. Or, in vitro selection is possible, but why, when you can do it with 90% certainty from the sequence?I’ve read that mice kept in low temperature environments have core temperatures 2 °C (like 4 F) lower than mice kept in room temperature. That should make infecting them with ts viruses a lot more like infecting warmer mice with wt viruses. The higher body temps of birds and bats are one reason why their viruses can be so bad for us — our fevers are brisk spring days for them.Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Rob
Bingo! The answer is … “literacy”. Someone here understands HBD.
On the celibate priesthood, it’s a mixed bag. Some quality genes were wasted … on the other hand *not* letting a separate priestly caste develop was an enormously good thing. Feudalism/caste systems suck.
Since the priests were generally just spare sons of the nobility and gentry, European society really only had two “castes”–the nobility and commoners. And the nobility was continually sucking up the attractive and/or rich girls from the upper gentry.
So European nations really are quite one-peoplish which is a very good thing. Much, much, much, much, much better than the caste division you see in India–real endogamy–or the similar sort thing between Jews and gentiles in Europe.
The best program is no caste/tribal division and continual downward mobility. You have one people, less contention and genes from the most successful are continual flowing down through the population and the idiots, unhealthy, flakes, layabouts continually dying off. This is what enabled European peoples to get smart and breakout. (And seems to be the East Asian pattern as well.)
Of course, the problem we have now–beyond the obvious immivasion debacle–is that the downward mobility has stopped. Modernity and feminism/female careerism have destroyed the link between good-genes/success and fertility.
In the naive but still optimistic 1990s when the mania for diversity really started taking off, the powers that be seem to have made the decision that it was necessary to "recenter" the SAT such that the falling average score (which was the result of expanding college as a middle class consumer good and having more non-Prep white male types taking the test) should be moved back to a 1,000. I recall it was actually admitted and spoken about openly at the time that this was because more non-traditional college aspirants were taking the test.
But I don't think it had the desired effect of masking the underperformance of certain favored groups, so like in the children's nursery song "The Old Lady who Swallowed a Fly," the powers that decide these things swallowed a bird to catch the spider to catch the fly. My guess is that they thought that making changes away from a pure g-loaded objective test of colored ovals to a more subjective process eventually including study subjects and essays would help close the black-white gap. Since IQ isn't real and humans are ever malleable for good ends, we could immerse blacks into an SAT preparation regime via urban public schools, while white suburban kids would be left to find their own SAT prep courses - the gap would therefore close and we could all finally realize MLK's dream in full.
They didn't account for Asian Tiger Moms, who found the less objective SAT infinitely more "hackable" via test prep and drilling and sample essay coaching and so forth. No longer a test of pure aptitude (viz, raw intelligence), the test was a test in the traditional sense of mastery of a universe of material which could be more readily accomplished through rote repetition as a stand-in for innate aptitude. If it wasn't illegal you could probably measure the delta between the IQ of Asian test-takers and the SAT scores of the same Asian test-takers. You're probably looking at a couple standard deviations between intelligence and test scores of Asians attributable to drilling and immersive test prep. In Steve's graphs it was the mid to late 1990s when Asians started pulling away from everyone including the white population - a modest five to ten point intelligence premium should not have yielded this overperformance.
Additionally, I think it's a sort of open secret in academia that foreign born students, particularly the Chinese, are beneficiaries of an espionage campaign to preview the SAT which is administered later in the year in China. But since Chinese students pay full freight tuition in U.S. colleges, there's little impetus to root out industrial scale Chinese cheating at the expense of American applicants.Replies: @Jack D
I don’t discount that there is possibly some effect but 2 SDs of effect is a crazy amount and I think not possible. 2 SDs is 400 points on the 1600 point scale. You are telling me that if you take away test prep that Asians drop 400 points? If this was true then the converse would be true and you could RAISE your SAT score 400 points with test prep. This would mean the difference between getting into Texas Christian University with a 1200 and getting into MIT with a 1600. Look at the varsity blues scandal – rich parents were willing to pay hundreds of thousands just to get their kid into USC. A guaranteed 400 point prep course – you could charge millions. I don’t think there has ever been a prep course that could legitimately claim a 400 point boost. None of the studies have shown anything like that magnitude of effect.
Especially because of the ceiling effect, as you get closer to a perfect SAT score, it becomes incredibly difficult to shave off those last few points – 1 wrong answer can drop you 20 or 30 points.
I think colleges and Universities have a point with regard to high scoring Asians - they're not looking for candidates who have hit the ceilings of their academic potential by way of hundreds of hours of rote memorization. They traditionally sought out (or purported to) candidates with high native intelligence who would benefit from the teaching by the leaders of their academic disciplines. It's just that their commitment to remaking America by boosting blacks and Hispanics reveals an irresolvable conflict - return the SAT to a general intelligence test to defend themselves against claims from Asians and whites (at least, whites without an "in") would be the prime beneficiaries while the premiums given to blacks would be even more ridiculous. It's whack-a-mole - hit the Asians and the blacks disappear too while many more of the hated whites pop up.Replies: @Jack D, @Jack D
O/T Neil deGrasse Tyson doesn’t seem to know how hydrogen bombs work:
Biggest issue though is where the bomb goes off. Touching the surface and vaporizing a lot of ground and rock will result in lots of deadly fallout as all that condenses together into particles that fall out of the sky relatively quickly. That's generally not what you want, air bursts are a lot more effective in distributing the energy of a warhead, but you may need to take out a hard target and you're probably salvage fuzing your warheads so if the other fuzes fail it'll set off the device when it slams into the earth.
Up in the air some will fall out in the short term, but plenty will stay up for a while, long enough to reduce the bad effects as the more active and thus dangerous stuff decays quickly, pretty much by definition I think. See for example the rule of seven, very roughly "the radiation dose rate is reduced by a factor of ten for every seven-fold increase in the number of hours since the explosion" (Cresson Kearny from the below linked book paraphrased by Wikipedia). So a little time goes a long ways, seven hours and it's one tenth the original intensity, two days one percent. If I recall correctly if it gets up in the stratosphere you don't have to worry about it at all, especially with today's reduced warhead inventories, no "40,000" aimed at us by the Soviets.
If you're worried about all this in the context of the war in the Ukraine or now what's happening with the PRC, get a green cover paper copy of Nuclear War Survival Skills for to scale diagrams of the expedient electroscope radiation meter it tells you how to built out of a soup can and aluminum foil. The rest you can start learning today.Replies: @Joe Stalin, @QCIC
Girls mature faster than boys. Do Asian PSAT/SAT to GRE/LSAT/MCAT/DAT test score pattern mirror women’s?
On the PSAT, has that changed a lot? If it hasn’t, it might be the best intelligence test for teenagers that we have, or at least will use.
If I remember correctly, Flynn had evidence that Asian IQ used to be lower in the US. But, Asian Americans must be getting better nutrition than Asians in Asia.
What have Brahmin Indians been selected for that could have made them smarter? They do religious ceremonies historically, right? Objectively, there’s no effect from doing a religious ritual badly, except for how the participants feel. Are they good at exploiting/giving people the positive psychological effects of religion? The Brahmins are certainly all-in on being the high priests of woke.Replies: @Jack D, @AnotherDad
Rob, Jack nailed it for you: “literacy”. Any group or community with a long history of literacy, being in occupations that require literacy will be smarter.
A close friend, super-sharp guy is a Marathi Brahmin. He’s from some community–if I understand what he told me–that traditionally made its living as basically scribes. Keeping the books, keeping the records and land titles that sort of thing. Ergo to excel–be a good husband prospect–in his community you had to be competently literate and on the ball. And that’s been the case for 100s or maybe a 1000 years. So the idiot genes tend to go unmatched, poorly matched and preferentially die out. And you end up with a community of non-idiots.
And yeah, his daughter is one of those Asians who pushed up the Asian-white gap.
Not in chemistry as far as I know, but I know much less about the history and major figures in it than biology or physics and math. But the preeminent chemists of the 19th and 20th Centuries, Dmitri Mendeleev and Linus Pauling, were not Jews. Biology, they’re probably over-represented for their fraction of the population but I think not as strikingly as with physics and math.
True enough I gather for particle physics, but there’s so much more to the field. For example machines to make semiconductors and the whole process depend on optics etc., and while not as dramatic as a nuclear explosion or power plant, they’re very important. See the discussions in previous recent iSteve topics on the hammer blow “Biden” has delivered to the PRC/CCP in embargoing wafer fab equipment (WEF) including on-site support (in theory only the cutting/bleeding edge stuff, but that remains to be seen as licenses are granted or not). Getting back to high energy physics, EUV lithography machines start with a laser zapping droplets of tin … many other methods were considered, somehow this turned out to be the least worst.
Another factor could be attraction to other fields, in computers Jews are definitely underrepresented in many fundamental and important developments. Biology got a lot more exciting after DNA was figured out.
“Good times make soft Jews.”
Increasingly lots of us euro-Gentiles don’t get an opportunity to become scientists, and I’m sure I don’t have to tell you about the economics of the academic path. You could even debate how “good” the times are for a very large fraction of us, while I grant you we aren’t starving like a quarter of Americans did by design under FDR (perhaps it’s not so bad farmers aren’t as politically powerful as they were back then).
Jewish Nobel Prize winners in Chemistry
2013 Karplus, Martin
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" Austria
2013 Levitt, Michael
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" South Africa
2013 Warshel, Arieh
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" Israel
2012 Lefkowitz, Robert J.
"for studies of G-protein-coupled receptors" USA
2011 Shechtman, Dan
"for the discovery of quasicrystals" Israel
2009 Yonath, Ada E.
"for studies of the structure and function of the ribosome" Israel
2008 Chalfie, Martin
"for the discovery and development of the green fluorescent protein, GFP" USA
2006 Kornberg, Roger. D.
"for his studies of the molecular basis of eukaryotic transcription" USA
2004 Ciechanover, Aaron
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" Israel
2004 Rose, Irwin
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" USA
2004 Hershko, Avram
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" Hungary
2000 Heeger, Alan J.
"for the discovery and development of conductive polymers" USA
1998 Kohn, Walter
"for his development of the density-functional theory" Austria
1994 Olah, George A.
"for his contribution to carbocation chemistry" Hungary
1992 Marcus, Rudolph A.
"for his contributions to the theory of electron transfer reactions in chemical systems" Canada
1989 Altman, Sidney
"for their discovery of catalytic properties of RNA" Canada
1985 Hauptman, Herbert A.
"for their development of direct methods for the determination of crystal structures" USA
1985 Karle, Jerome
"for their development of direct methods for the determination of crystal structures" USA
1982 Klug, Aaron
"for his development of crystallographic electron microscopy and his structural elucidation of biologically important nucleic acid-protein complexes" Lithuania
1981 Hoffmann, Roald
"for their theories, developed independently, concerning the course of chemical reactions" Poland
1980 Gilbert, Walter
"for their contributions concerning the determination of base sequences in nucleic acids" USA
1980 Berg, Paul
"for his fundamental studies of the biochemistry of nucleic acids, with particular regard to recombinant-DNA" USA
1979 Brown, Herbert C.
"for their development of the use of boron- and phosphorus-containing compounds, respectively, into important reagents in organic synthesis" Ukraine
1977 Prigogine, Ilya
"for his contributions to non-equilibrium thermodynamics, particularly the theory of dissipative structures" Russia
1972 Stein, William H.
"for their contribution to the understanding of the connection between chemical structure and catalytic activity of the active center of the ribonuclease molecule" USA
1972 Anfinsen, Christian B.
"for his work on ribonuclease, especially concerning the connection between the amino acid sequence and the biologically active conformation" USA
1962 Perutz, Max F.
"for their studies of the structures of globular proteins" Austria
1961 Calvin, Melvin
"for his research on the carbon dioxide assimilation in plants" USA
1943 de Hevesy, George
"for his work on the use of isotopes as tracers in the study of chemical processes" Hungary
1918 Haber, Fritz
"for the synthesis of ammonia from its elements" Germany
1915 Willstatter, Richard M.
"for his researches on plant pigments, especially chlorophyll" Germany
1910 Wallach, Otto
"for his pioneer work in the field of alicyclic compounds" Germany
1906 Moissan, Henri
"for his investigation and isolation of the element fluorine, and for the adoption in the service of science of the electric furnace called after him" France
1905 von Baeyer, J. F. W. Adolf
"for his services in the advancement of organic chemistry and the chemical industry, through his work on organic dyes and hydroaromatic compounds"Replies: @AnotherDad, @Mike Tre
Of course, DJT was Hitler when he did something much milder.
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52980Replies: @That Would Be Telling
Asian Girls
Get rid of Asian Girls from the subset and recalculate
Even if you make it a test of SWPL stuff , Asians will just memorize those facts. Here is an analogy question (remember when the SAT had analogies): Blacks are to white people as white people are to ________.Replies: @AnotherDad, @Hypnotoad666
Jack — Your overconfident ignorance schtick is wearing very thin. First, you flunk the reading comprehension part of the test because the whole point of my post is that “You’d have to look very specifically at what the test questions are to make an assessment.”
So I post that only the SAT people have the data and you come back dunking on me for not having access to the SAT’s secret database with demographic crosstabs. Brilliant. Give yourself a pat on the back.
Next, you say the SAT people aren’t changing up the questions in an effort minimize demographic score gaps. But then you immediately contradict yourself by admitting “God knows that test writers have been trying for decades” to design tests in exactly this way. Duh. (Do you think they are ever going to reuse the word “regatta” on the SAT.) Then you say:
No shit. That’s a pretty dumb straw man point. No one is saying every test taker is supposed to get the identical score — that really would be useless. The point is whether you can shave off or add a few points to compress the score gaps while still keeping whatever minimum test validity the designers are willing to live with. But again give yourself another “F” in reading comprehension, because my point is exactly that moving away from g-loaded tests is what you would do if you wanted to raise the scores of low-IQ demos.
Then you say:
Wrong. Different demographic groups have different strong suits in terms of work ethic, subject matter knowledge, and even sub-elements of g. Women do better on verbal tests and tests with less time pressure. Men do better on visual/spatial tests and tests with more time pressure. Groups with higher proportions at the right tail can score higher on tests with harder questions. Subject matter knowledge undoubtedly varies by group. Even when I took the SAT every third reading comprehension passage was about Martin Luther King or Malcolm X. Perhaps blacks do better on subject matter about blacks — I don’t know, but the SAT designers clearly think so.
It’s child’s play to design a test that favors one group over another when you have the granular data to do so. Especially if you are willing to sacrifice or redefine test validity, which is another thing I said you’d have to look at closely. Indeed, the whole point of Steve’s post is that, as compared to the (newly redesigned) SAT, the MCAT and LSAT apparently do favor whites over Asians. Furthermore, unless your hypothesis is that Asian IQs suddenly increased when the SAT was redesigned, then the old test disfavored Asians compared to the new test.
As to your analogy, I get it: You fancy yourself as a super-smart member of the super-smart tribe.
Why do they do it then? Because it's cheap and easy virtue signaling. Because they don't know what else to do because nothing seem to work to close the Gap.
1,000% off topic, but I think of interest – some people may be aware that Russia has been trying to take Bakhmut/Artemovsk for three months now – it’s a must-have if they want the whole Donbas (officially a part of Russia as far as the Russian State is concerned) as it’s key to the last two Donbas towns of any size, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
Obviously the Ukrainian defence has been impressive, but most of the images/videos of the fighting I’ve seen still leave the impression of a green and pleasant land. The town centre was still immaculate five or six weeks ago, when Russia started to get closer and the Bakhmut cam was taken off air.
But this looks more like the Somme or Verdun – blasted, skeletal trees, no green to be seen. Fighting must be like WW1 trench warfare – but that was broken by tanks, which both sides have here.
Must be a hell of a scrap. The head of the private Wagner group, doing most of the Russian fighting, said of the defenders – “they have balls, as we do”.
Israelis are not Asian but are considered non-Hispanic whites (along with the rest of the middle easterns and North Africans (MENA). I love the universities that have added the MENA category not to give them any benefit in admission but to lure them away from claiming to be African and getting affirmative action. (See UMich).
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581986081871798273Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @YetAnotherAnon, @Hesiod
Semi-auto and at least one guy using his sling I think, also note the lower rate of fire from the guy in front (there were a total of three) … these are the only things that make this feat credible. Along of course with the system we’ve already head of that allows men on the ground with MANPADS to be ready to engage higher heat signature cruise missiles.
OK, one other and probably big thing: not familiar with 5.45×39mm ballistics which they were perhaps using, but I’m pretty sure their rapid fire started before the drone was in truly effective range. That gave them some seconds to settle down and potentially more accurately aim their final shots which were at a slower pace nine seconds after they started, I’d bet one of them did the trick.
Indeed amazing, especially since I assume wing shooting is not a common sport or recreational activity in the Ukraine.
As I endlessly repeat, it’s 2022 not 1972 when the Men of UNZ applied to college. Do you all live on the internet? Do you know any high school counselors high school kids or their parents or the present day college admission process? Obviously not.Replies: @AnotherDad, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar, @Recently Based
You’re on target with this “man of Unz”. I am not “in the game”, my kids are all post-college and only one is still in grad school.
But I strongly suspect the “no test” option only works for NAM kids who are obvious AA candidates with a strong resume of grades , achievements. Or kids with exceptional resumes–excellent grades and activities achievements that absolutely shout both “winner” and “believer to the narrative!”, will sell out grandmother if asked.
My guess is the merely really smart Asian/white kid must still take the SAT/ACT do really well and have the activities/story that suggest a winner/go-getter and demonstrate fealty to the establishment’s narrative. Just as before.
And, count me as skeptical the post-Floyd-OD era is going to last. Maybe the policy of nominally being “test optional” can last, but only select AA admits can get in under it. Or … the elite schools will have to make their own test. There’s simply no way around the fact you need some sort of IQ-like screen, if the elite colleges are going to keep their elite status. If they are no longer associated with “the best students” …. it will be a downhill slide.
MIT has other details to help with admissions starting with extreme self-selection in applicants, and is mightily motivated to make sure everyone they make an offer to can do the work of the core science and math curriculum. Also no legacy admits per se, they have to pass that competency evaluation first and reversion to the mean is no friend to these applicants. The theory of social justice convergence says these schools will find it difficult to impossible to even realize this Officially ugly truth or to do something about it. And what defines "the best students?" Diversity that makes your corporation's ESG scores higher? Too many of these firms are also social justice converged, even if it's going to kill them like Intel shows every sign of (there's more to the story but that's a big part).
I guess the only advantage they've got is that the admissions office can be run as a conspiracy ... really, it has to be given all the constraints involved. And we know they're up for much greater levels of conspiracy from the cabal that made sure no one would make a decision amongst them based on financial aid.
They are for everyone. And all these old men projecting their own and their middle aged children’s college admission rat race long ago are not aware of the college admission optional SAT process. Or ignorant of the fact that SATs are optional nowadays even in top 25 colleges.
The college admissions people gave up on the SATS because after 50 years of re adjustment to favor the dumbest demographic blacks , nothing worked.
The Men of UNZ need to learn about college applications this year and what admission directors are looking for in the fall 2023 2024 classes.
The article and comments are ignorant of how the admissions process works now. Not in 1982 or even 2002.
I gather the article is about the Asian applicants vs Harvard admissions. Old White men trying to help the Asian immigrants kids shove White kids out of college and well paid occupations.
Affirmative action arrived in 1968. Was confirmed by the Supreme Court 3 times since. Third time by Ronald Reagan appointees.
After 50 years of desperate attempts to make the SATs equitable college admissions gave up and declared it unnecessary. I would not be surprised if the admissions people made their decision to get rid of the SATs as soon as Asian applicants vs Harvard admissions was filed.
As I understand it, plaintiff Asian applicants is using SAT scores to prove anti Asian racism. Because SAT scores are really the only objective criteria left in the college admissions rat race.
But Harvards defense can be “ the SATs are discredited and aren’t used anymore” So Asian high SAT scores don’t matter.
Some comments mentioned doctors. What with the high cost of tuition and living expenses for 13 years, late start in adult life such as buying a home having kids making investments and low salaries mandated by Medicare and private insurance companies being a doctor isn’t the well paid professional it used to be.
Nurses on the other hand are better paid every year. Because they have a strong labor union. California nurses make about 135K a year. Lower than Drs but actually much much better off financially because less time and money spent in training. And earning a living at age 23 instead of somewhere between 33 and 37. And paying far less for their training.
I’ll post a comment about one of the very few federal civil service exams still mandatory. The foreign service officer written exam A psychological assessment section was developed in the desperate hope more fewer Whites would pass. Turned out Whites and Hispanics did very well on the psychological assessment section. Blacks and Asians failed. Blacks too aggressive, Asians too passive Whites and Hispanics psychologically well suited for diplomacy
Sooo back to re doing the test to figure out a way for blacks to succeed and Whites to fail.
Re the medical profession as more and more of these genius Asians got into the profession salaries fell. Such a coincidence. I’m sure Medicare and the insurance companies had nothing to do with it.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581986081871798273Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @YetAnotherAnon, @Hesiod
Are you sure they took it down? Sounds (and looks) more like “an arrival” to me. Maybe the Ghost Of Kiev was guiding their aim.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581986081871798273Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @YetAnotherAnon, @Hesiod
When a drone commits suicide, does it risk damnation for its immortal soul?
Also, these kamikaze drones, do they scream “banzai!” before impact?
Or are “suicide” and “kamikaze” just propaganda buzzwords put in by The Associated Pederasts and the rest of the LSM to rile up the gullible? Ie., we use “smart bombs” while those devils use “suicide drones”.
Getting into an elite (sic) school is not what it used to be, especially for white males who, you know, and good at noticing such things.Replies: @JR Ewing
My older son is 15. He appears to have very high expectations for where he goes to college in a couple of years, but even with my legacy Ivy League status, his odds just are not very good.
I have explained to him – and his 13 y.o. brother – that their only chance of getting into a prestigious out of state school is going to be by maintaining the high qualifications and then getting recruited for sports and bypassing the regular admissions process, like I did.. and my grades weren’t excellent at all 30+ years ago like they’ll both need to have nowadays.
Luckily, they both are talented athletes and they both are honor students, so they might have a chance at something like track or baseball or (maybe) football.
As much as their mother doesn’t like the idea of either of them staying in state, they both will be ranked high enough in their class to take advantage of guaranteed admission to UT Austin if it comes down to that.
Fluid situation
Like you I went out of state full-ride and my sons may end up likewise but their cousins are pursuing a much more diverse set of paths than mine did, and for good reason.
Supposedly Harvard demands 7 different activities. Scouts, 4H church activities don’t count. In fact all these normal White people activities are minus points in the vicious affirmative action process.
I’ve been told that the admissions people never check up in the activities. Many just make them up. But they get admitted. School, homework commuting take up enough time already, especially homework burden. Add in the required activities and the poor kids are busy 7 am to 12am Monday through Friday. Weekends off only 6 to 10 hours in admissions activities. Including 2 hour round trip driving to do volunteer work at the nearest city homeless shelter.
Tip volunteering at the local pound or animal rescue center counts more points now than at the homeless shelter. For the admissions essay the applicants pronouns should be they and them. Boys can become drag queens. Girls claim to get an abortion. Despite your evil far right Christian parents being against it. If you have a German or Slavic surname be sure to mention the holocaust survivor gr grandparent. Vow to fight for justice so no such abomination ever again occurs.
Or let the kid relax and live a normal life by just checking the black or Hispanic box depending on the surname. Also and very very important check the first person in your family to go to college box.Replies: @res
Flip this around. The SAT especially lost a great deal of its predictive value when it stopped mostly being an aptitude test as others have detailed with dates, g-loading, etc. Sometime in the last couple of decades MIT discovered the previously less respected ACT had better predictive value of success at MIT than the SAT of the time.
MIT has other details to help with admissions starting with extreme self-selection in applicants, and is mightily motivated to make sure everyone they make an offer to can do the work of the core science and math curriculum. Also no legacy admits per se, they have to pass that competency evaluation first and reversion to the mean is no friend to these applicants.
The theory of social justice convergence says these schools will find it difficult to impossible to even realize this Officially ugly truth or to do something about it. And what defines “the best students?” Diversity that makes your corporation’s ESG scores higher? Too many of these firms are also social justice converged, even if it’s going to kill them like Intel shows every sign of (there’s more to the story but that’s a big part).
I guess the only advantage they’ve got is that the admissions office can be run as a conspiracy … really, it has to be given all the constraints involved. And we know they’re up for much greater levels of conspiracy from the cabal that made sure no one would make a decision amongst them based on financial aid.
Do blacks do better on subject matter about blacks? I doubt it. Reading about MLK instead of LBJ does not increase your reading comprehension one bit.
Why do they do it then? Because it’s cheap and easy virtue signaling. Because they don’t know what else to do because nothing seem to work to close the Gap.
The SAT is a pretty easy test and little bit of prep can increase scores.
As I endlessly repeat, it’s 2022 not 1972 when the Men of UNZ applied to college. Do you all live on the internet? Do you know any high school counselors high school kids or their parents or the present day college admission process? Obviously not.Replies: @AnotherDad, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar, @Recently Based
…And that is the young-whipper-snapper cohort of Unz.com
If the gap in SAT scores derives from Tiger nurture, which is not present in college, then Asians’ SATs should over-predict their college performance. Smart colleges should track and know this.
As to SAT scores....... I hate to harp on the subject, but cheating is rife. Go to tests that have extreme anti-cheating protocols in place ( in my case, A+, CCNA, and so forth) and there is no Asian test advantage. Coincidence, I am sure.Replies: @Bill Jones, @Anon
Thanks, I didn’t know that. A neat explanation. Got a cite?
Smart colleges also hold Asian applicants to a higher bar, so maybe you’re right and they know it — and they act on it.
The SAT takers would include all potential academic fields of study— to include the hard sciences and math— while the LSAT and MCAT would be just for people interested in law and medicine.
So let’s say you don’t have an interest in fields with a lot of speculating and bullshitting but you have an interest in Infinite-time Exponential Growth of the Euler Equation on Two-dimensional Torus. Then you’re not going to be taking the LSAT or MCAT. And your fellow grad students will look like this:
MIT Women in Mathematics
Why can’t creativity, organizational acumen, or sense of fair play be tested for objectively?
Whites have an especially good track record with creativity.
OT – Steve favorite NASCAR driver of color is back in the news as he assaults another driver after a crash:
https://vidmax.com/video/215407-hate-crime-hoaxer-bubba-wallace-shoves-kyle-larson-after-the-two-crashed-in-vegas
So let’s say you don’t have an interest in fields with a lot of speculating and bullshitting but you have an interest in Infinite-time Exponential Growth of the Euler Equation on Two-dimensional Torus. Then you’re not going to be taking the LSAT or MCAT. And your fellow grad students will look like this:
https://math.mit.edu/wim/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/wim2019-1.jpg
MIT Women in MathematicsReplies: @Anonymous
Btw, approximately 65% of the of females in that MIT math department photo are bespectacled. Take that Pol Pot! 🥊
also OT – When the coalition of fringes collide:
Three negresses take on a tranny. Who is the who and who is the Whom?
https://vidmax.com/video/215401-trans-fella-threw-a-shoe-at-a-pregnant-black-woman-oh-boy-was-that-a-bad-idea
I think the discrepancy between the groups on professional tests can be explained by routine selection and self selection considerations. The group of whites entering college and taking demanding courses is a cohort selected on high school grades and tests to be similar to the Asians. Once in college, students practice some degree of self selection for professional school. People who see they are clearly weeded out of premed classes, eg can’t pass organic chemistry, look for other options. So a selected, self selected group of whites are competing with Asians on the professional tests, hence the gap between the groups is narrowed considerably. Also, lsat is a verbal test, which also minimizes Asian advantage in the analytical sciences. Also true of the mcat which has both verbal and biology. I think that explains it satisfactorily.
Another factor could be attraction to other fields, in computers Jews are definitely underrepresented in many fundamental and important developments. Biology got a lot more exciting after DNA was figured out. "Good times make soft Jews."
Increasingly lots of us euro-Gentiles don't get an opportunity to become scientists, and I'm sure I don't have to tell you about the economics of the academic path. You could even debate how "good" the times are for a very large fraction of us, while I grant you we aren't starving like a quarter of Americans did by design under FDR (perhaps it's not so bad farmers aren't as politically powerful as they were back then).Replies: @Jack D, @Jim Don Bob
You don’t know much, then.
Jewish Nobel Prize winners in Chemistry
2013 Karplus, Martin
“for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems” Austria
2013 Levitt, Michael
“for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems” South Africa
2013 Warshel, Arieh
“for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems” Israel
2012 Lefkowitz, Robert J.
“for studies of G-protein-coupled receptors” USA
2011 Shechtman, Dan
“for the discovery of quasicrystals” Israel
2009 Yonath, Ada E.
“for studies of the structure and function of the ribosome” Israel
2008 Chalfie, Martin
“for the discovery and development of the green fluorescent protein, GFP” USA
2006 Kornberg, Roger. D.
“for his studies of the molecular basis of eukaryotic transcription” USA
2004 Ciechanover, Aaron
“for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation” Israel
2004 Rose, Irwin
“for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation” USA
2004 Hershko, Avram
“for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation” Hungary
2000 Heeger, Alan J.
“for the discovery and development of conductive polymers” USA
1998 Kohn, Walter
“for his development of the density-functional theory” Austria
1994 Olah, George A.
“for his contribution to carbocation chemistry” Hungary
1992 Marcus, Rudolph A.
“for his contributions to the theory of electron transfer reactions in chemical systems” Canada
1989 Altman, Sidney
“for their discovery of catalytic properties of RNA” Canada
1985 Hauptman, Herbert A.
“for their development of direct methods for the determination of crystal structures” USA
1985 Karle, Jerome
“for their development of direct methods for the determination of crystal structures” USA
1982 Klug, Aaron
“for his development of crystallographic electron microscopy and his structural elucidation of biologically important nucleic acid-protein complexes” Lithuania
1981 Hoffmann, Roald
“for their theories, developed independently, concerning the course of chemical reactions” Poland
1980 Gilbert, Walter
“for their contributions concerning the determination of base sequences in nucleic acids” USA
1980 Berg, Paul
“for his fundamental studies of the biochemistry of nucleic acids, with particular regard to recombinant-DNA” USA
1979 Brown, Herbert C.
“for their development of the use of boron- and phosphorus-containing compounds, respectively, into important reagents in organic synthesis” Ukraine
1977 Prigogine, Ilya
“for his contributions to non-equilibrium thermodynamics, particularly the theory of dissipative structures” Russia
1972 Stein, William H.
“for their contribution to the understanding of the connection between chemical structure and catalytic activity of the active center of the ribonuclease molecule” USA
1972 Anfinsen, Christian B.
“for his work on ribonuclease, especially concerning the connection between the amino acid sequence and the biologically active conformation” USA
1962 Perutz, Max F.
“for their studies of the structures of globular proteins” Austria
1961 Calvin, Melvin
“for his research on the carbon dioxide assimilation in plants” USA
1943 de Hevesy, George
“for his work on the use of isotopes as tracers in the study of chemical processes” Hungary
1918 Haber, Fritz
“for the synthesis of ammonia from its elements” Germany
1915 Willstatter, Richard M.
“for his researches on plant pigments, especially chlorophyll” Germany
1910 Wallach, Otto
“for his pioneer work in the field of alicyclic compounds” Germany
1906 Moissan, Henri
“for his investigation and isolation of the element fluorine, and for the adoption in the service of science of the electric furnace called after him” France
1905 von Baeyer, J. F. W. Adolf
“for his services in the advancement of organic chemistry and the chemical industry, through his work on organic dyes and hydroaromatic compounds”
~
BTW, recommend Olah's book on the "methanol economy". His bailiwick, but a reasonable approach to future energy distribution.
One thought: intensive training at an early age can boost performance, but over time these effects tend to decline and everyone with the same native ability tends to end up in the same zone.
OK what am I talking about: many decades ago when I was an undergraduate at MIT, I noticed that a lotof the foreign students had an edge on us Americans at least in some areas. I think that the elite foreign high schools were probably just tougher and had a lot more rote memory, esp. in math. But at the end of four years, I think these differences had flattened out. It’s not like the initial boost stayed as a constant increment of performance.
So if asians are getting drilled in high school, they will blow the SAT etc. away compared to non-asians playing video games. But by the time you get to taking the MCAT, that initial boost is gone and whites and asians have dropped back to their more ‘natural’ relative levels.
I mean, you can take an average kid, and through rigorous training get their math scores up a lot, but when they turn 24 will they be Einstein? For that matter, you can take an average kid and with a lot of athletic coaching you can boost them way above average – but at 22, will they be a superstar professional athlete?
No statistics on this, just anecdotal. There is probably a specific term for this but I can’t think of this.
Crystallised intelligence itself can be regarded as a function of both fluid intelligence, personality trait conscientiousness, plus, in the situation you mentioned, environmental effects (Tiger mom factor). At least that's my take on it.
Past a certain point or amount of effort, it's hard to add to crystallised intelligence and it plateaus, for lack of a better word.
Whereas after four years at an American university without the tiger mom around, the Asian students just are not that good.
Maybe they’re just fucking tired…….”Thank fucking god I’m out from under that bitches thumb” ……maybe I can grab a cocktail and get laid now!
It has set off a race to the bottom. Whites are forced to change their way of life in order to compete with Asian and Jewish grinds. The alternative is ending up in the lower classes with the illegal immigrants and Blacks.
To succeed at the English portion of the GRE you have to be a native speaker, as well as have studied plenty of grammar and reading comprehension.
Lots of foreigners are taking the GRE without enough English skills and doing poorly on it. They are all Asians since having a graduate degree is a fierce status marker for them. So I’d be careful about “which” Asians are skewing the GRE scores. Are they American-born or recent imports?
As to the SAT, those are heavily prepped, American-born Asians who are still trying to please their parents at 17 years old.
The GRE used to be fairly similar to the SAT. The math on both is essentially highschool math. I honestly don't know what you mean about the grammar or even vocabulary on the GRE; English has a grammar as do all languages and the low-frequency words are mostly the same low-frequency words on both exams. Besides, don't plenty of foreign students take the SAT to go to US undergrad institutions?
Though I'm a little rusty on the vocabulary of statistics, I think "distribution" is the keyword here. Asian IQs are more heavily clustered around the average while whites have more IQs at the low and high extremes. Not only are the low-IQ types not taking graduate admissions tests, but many with more average IQs don't take such exams either. In essence, the Asian higher average IQ of 105 confers no advantage when competing against the higher IQ white population especially when the exam is linguisto-logical rather than mathematical. Also, as Sailer has mentioned previously, it's not in the realm of probability or possibility that Asians are rapidly gaining IQ points over the last few decades. Something else accounts for the increasingly better performance, like test prep.Replies: @stillCARealist, @QCIC
The federal government will pay full freight in the form of loans for anyone with “need.” There’s not a greed explanation for colleges preferring international students to the domestic middle class.
wouldn’t SAT standard deviation/skew kind of imply that test is being gamed and performance is deviating away from natural patterns of IQ variation when adjusted for selection biases? What is the racial difference in SD for SAT scores?
When whites do better than blacks, I remember the argument was that there’s no way to game the tests even with study. When Asians pull away from whites, there’s a lot of copium with explanations that now the test IS gameable, but only when Asians do it. And no evidence is provided or pointed to that backup the essentially random explanations. The fact that Asians score better on LSAT at all, when it is English heavy and there are still many Asian parents that don’t speak English natively isn’t discussed.
But the Asian-white gap change suggests:
-- Asians are getting smarter relative to whites. (Asians getting smarter and/or whites getting dumber.)
-- Asians are getting relatively better at taking the tests.
(For the record--I think it is both. Asians better at gaming the tests, and smarter Asians--relatvely more Asians being children of selected came-via-US-college/grad-school immigrants, especially high caste Asian Indians.)
And for the record, no one--no one thinking logically--has ever thought the SAT isn't "gameable". On pretty much all tests, practice improves performance. On physical stuff there might be an immediate pretty hard limit. But we generally don't test mental performance as directly--say reaction times or evoked potentials. We have people do some mental tasks. And the whole "learning" thing: if you know what those tasks are and practice them ... you get better!
The College Board liked to claim back in the day that you couldn't do much. But the general consensus was about 50 points (at the midrange) is just laying there if you just do thorough prep. But lots of Asians go well beyond thorough prep to making the test itself sort of actual subject of study, and "game" if you will where you get down all the hacks to get to the next level, and the next level. Becoming SAT "masters".Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @dux.ie, @Dvnjbbgc
The numbers coming in should be tiny, if not stopped altogether. I don’t care how much they pay, it’s not fair to native citizens whose parents have been investing in the community or state for their whole lives.
I’d say the same for the out-of-state students who also pay full tuition. These entities exist for the purpose of educating the kids of that state, not some other locale. I pay taxes directly and indirectly for the community/state/university schools in my area, and they’re chock full of people from all around the world. screw that.
Yes and no. The College Board stopped letting the test be administered in China in 2016 due to rampant cheating and lax proctoring. However, they’re still cheating (e.g. body doubles).
Jewish Nobel Prize winners in Chemistry
2013 Karplus, Martin
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" Austria
2013 Levitt, Michael
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" South Africa
2013 Warshel, Arieh
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" Israel
2012 Lefkowitz, Robert J.
"for studies of G-protein-coupled receptors" USA
2011 Shechtman, Dan
"for the discovery of quasicrystals" Israel
2009 Yonath, Ada E.
"for studies of the structure and function of the ribosome" Israel
2008 Chalfie, Martin
"for the discovery and development of the green fluorescent protein, GFP" USA
2006 Kornberg, Roger. D.
"for his studies of the molecular basis of eukaryotic transcription" USA
2004 Ciechanover, Aaron
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" Israel
2004 Rose, Irwin
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" USA
2004 Hershko, Avram
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" Hungary
2000 Heeger, Alan J.
"for the discovery and development of conductive polymers" USA
1998 Kohn, Walter
"for his development of the density-functional theory" Austria
1994 Olah, George A.
"for his contribution to carbocation chemistry" Hungary
1992 Marcus, Rudolph A.
"for his contributions to the theory of electron transfer reactions in chemical systems" Canada
1989 Altman, Sidney
"for their discovery of catalytic properties of RNA" Canada
1985 Hauptman, Herbert A.
"for their development of direct methods for the determination of crystal structures" USA
1985 Karle, Jerome
"for their development of direct methods for the determination of crystal structures" USA
1982 Klug, Aaron
"for his development of crystallographic electron microscopy and his structural elucidation of biologically important nucleic acid-protein complexes" Lithuania
1981 Hoffmann, Roald
"for their theories, developed independently, concerning the course of chemical reactions" Poland
1980 Gilbert, Walter
"for their contributions concerning the determination of base sequences in nucleic acids" USA
1980 Berg, Paul
"for his fundamental studies of the biochemistry of nucleic acids, with particular regard to recombinant-DNA" USA
1979 Brown, Herbert C.
"for their development of the use of boron- and phosphorus-containing compounds, respectively, into important reagents in organic synthesis" Ukraine
1977 Prigogine, Ilya
"for his contributions to non-equilibrium thermodynamics, particularly the theory of dissipative structures" Russia
1972 Stein, William H.
"for their contribution to the understanding of the connection between chemical structure and catalytic activity of the active center of the ribonuclease molecule" USA
1972 Anfinsen, Christian B.
"for his work on ribonuclease, especially concerning the connection between the amino acid sequence and the biologically active conformation" USA
1962 Perutz, Max F.
"for their studies of the structures of globular proteins" Austria
1961 Calvin, Melvin
"for his research on the carbon dioxide assimilation in plants" USA
1943 de Hevesy, George
"for his work on the use of isotopes as tracers in the study of chemical processes" Hungary
1918 Haber, Fritz
"for the synthesis of ammonia from its elements" Germany
1915 Willstatter, Richard M.
"for his researches on plant pigments, especially chlorophyll" Germany
1910 Wallach, Otto
"for his pioneer work in the field of alicyclic compounds" Germany
1906 Moissan, Henri
"for his investigation and isolation of the element fluorine, and for the adoption in the service of science of the electric furnace called after him" France
1905 von Baeyer, J. F. W. Adolf
"for his services in the advancement of organic chemistry and the chemical industry, through his work on organic dyes and hydroaromatic compounds"Replies: @AnotherDad, @Mike Tre
TWBT, don’t bait Jack like this, unless you’re looking for a list. When it comes to the positive side of Jewish achievement, he’s on it.
~
BTW, recommend Olah’s book on the “methanol economy”. His bailiwick, but a reasonable approach to future energy distribution.
Really ‘smart’ colleges decline to know or track anything which might prove politically inconvenient.
As I endlessly repeat, it’s 2022 not 1972 when the Men of UNZ applied to college. Do you all live on the internet? Do you know any high school counselors high school kids or their parents or the present day college admission process? Obviously not.Replies: @AnotherDad, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar, @Recently Based
This has been going on for at least 50 years. Which means the quality, first of the student body, then eventually of the faculty, must have been tanking for decades. Even if the faculty remains top-flight, thanks to remuneration, they’d have to be frustrated teaching increasingly dumber students.
So why all the focus on getting into schools that are by now pretty much 💩? Wouldn’t at least a few once-lower-tier colleges have resisted this corruption, or at least suffered less of it, and thus be better deals?
Even if you’re just there to get a mate, your odds of getting a good one have sunk along with everything else. The old saw about a rising tide works in the other direction, too:
The modern SAT is fairly basic, akin to the SOLs on steroids. A simple achievement test with the addition of a timed aspect. You can even use your advanced graphing calculator on it as opposed to the ASVAB. It shouldn’t be a surprise that kids with higher IQ of any race or sex would do well on it if they sat through their entire childhood for hours a day learning what was on this test. What is more surprising is that a substantial part of the population does relatively poorly on it. What are their brains doing while wasting a good portion of their life to learn this material, with the more diligent types also spending hours after classes on homework? The standardized test industry seems a fairly back asswards implementation of a selection process that occurs in no particularly sensible order. Why waste kids’ lives pumping them with information they are at pains to or don’t want to absorb? The system is a failure if learning is the objective of the millions of child- and man-hours being used. Of course some believe public schooling is little more than a massively subsidized day care program.
Whites can look for work in the trades, but there is increasing competition there from Latinxes.Replies: @Anonymous, @TickTock1948, @Alden
That hypothesis has been floating around for over a hundred years, and despite making no sense, and failing comedically every time, it just never dies for some reason.
Asian men are less likely to marry a white woman today than they were 30 years ago. Same goes for Jewish men.
First of all, you’re assuming these men, and white men, are even competing for white women in the first place. They’re not. Their sights are aimed at Asian women.
And the thing is, women just don’t do Asian men. A few years ago, a professor pointed out that the data shows how white women require an Asian man to earn $247,000 more than their average white male suitor, in order to be considered on equal footing with that white man.
https://dioknoed.blogspot.com/2018/11/professor-asian-men-have-to-make-247000.html?m=1
The data he’s referring to is from about 12 years back, so adjusting for inflation I would assume the figure is around 500,000 or more by now.
The average Harvard grad doesn’t earn over $150,000 a year, so the effect of education on husband value is going to be nil for Asian men.
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2017/05/18/intermarriage-in-the-u-s-50-years-after-loving-v-virginia/
21% of Asian men marry outside their race.
Asians made a cottage industry out of sending people in to take the tests and remember the questions. That way, they can sell the Q&A. Seems obvious that they must also be the group most willing to pay for the answers.
The students from the best science school in the country would assign questions amongst themselves to each participant, bring in their graphing calculators, punch in the keywords for the test into the calculator, and immediately after the test, gather outside nearby to reconstruct the entire theory paper using their memory and the info in the calculators. The reconstructed questions would serve as practice questions for future cohorts.
Pretty nifty, I thought.
As I endlessly repeat, it’s 2022 not 1972 when the Men of UNZ applied to college. Do you all live on the internet? Do you know any high school counselors high school kids or their parents or the present day college admission process? Obviously not.Replies: @AnotherDad, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar, @Recently Based
I have kids who have recently gone through college admissions and are doing it right now.
“SAT optional” is not optional if you’re white or Asian without some truly amazing sob story (even if you’re a recruited athlete). The various college ratings entities require that that least X% (usually 80%) of all students submit standardized tests if they are to be included in rankings. So schools are very careful to get the bottom 19.9% of SAT scorers that they want to admit (ie, most blacks and some other NAMs) to avoid submitting standardized tests. If you’re anybody else, you’re not getting in without them. The only places where they don’t matter is where they will not accept them from any applicants –the UC system being the prime example.
Nationally competitive private high schools that send a large fraction of their graduates to top 10 colleges (my kids are in one) care a huge amount about SATs / ACTs, typically organizing material in-school support and counting on the fact that more or less every student is doing private coaching. They just understand the zeitgeist well enough to not trumpet this.
When I asked the HS kids in our youth orchestra (white/Asian middle class) about taking the SAT, they all said they weren't. Is that just CA? They all plan to go to college somewhere, and honestly, these kids are pretty accomplished and bright.
A simple achievement test with the addition of a timed aspect
I picked a test randomly:
https://images.collegedunia.com/public/college_data/images/entrance/sample_paper/1603855990SAT%20Math%20Level%202.pdf
My guess is more than 90% of working Americans would likely not answer 20 of the 50 questions correctly in 60 minutes. Would you describe the test as simple?
As to SAT scores....... I hate to harp on the subject, but cheating is rife. Go to tests that have extreme anti-cheating protocols in place ( in my case, A+, CCNA, and so forth) and there is no Asian test advantage. Coincidence, I am sure.Replies: @Bill Jones, @Anon
“As to SAT scores……. I hate to harp on the subject, but cheating is rife.“
This
400 points is not plausible on average, but at least 200 is, and maybe more.
The key issue is your comment “A guaranteed 400 point prep course – you could charge millions.”
Unless you’re willing to cheat a la Varsity Blues, the problem is that “prep course” isn’t Mackenzie working with a tutor each Saturday and doing 20 minutes a day in between for 3 months — it starts in literally 8th grade and involves over 1,000 hours of raw ass-in-chair grinding over that period. There is, for example, a finite list of vocabulary words, and if you devote enough time to it over years, you can memorize the definitions of every one of them and drill for comprehension.
The British Army used to talk about the 7Ps: Proper Planning and Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance. It's gone out of style, but it works.
Generally speaking, the Asian attitude toward education is that if you don't get something the first time, that doesn't mean you are dumb, it means that you didn't study hard enough and you should study some more until you do.
The variance of the sample mean is not the same as the variance of the observations.
StdDev of mean is σ/√N where σ is the sample StdDev.
This is Grade 11 maths – or at least it was when I did Grade 11 (in 1981).
The formula for the test of two means is some basic shit.
Twitter is dumber than reddit, but seriously this innumerate shit has to stop. Regurgitating it means you didn’t immediately see the problem… MBA-quant detected.
i do have a new hypothesis about handedness. every NFL quarterback had been right handed for like a decade, until Tagovailoa. what are the odds of that? that’s 32 starters, 32 backups, and so on. even with this Tua guy, he’s still the only lefty. and he’s not even left handed. he just grew up throwing left handed for some reason. before him, Vick was the only lefty among 60 other right handed throwers.
i used to think this was because there was something about a right handed spiral. better for rolling out and throwing? easier to catch? left footed punters produce kicks that are harder to field, this is known for sure, so maybe the opposite effect is in operation here for throwing. indeed, perhaps this is WHY nature picked right handed for humans instead of left handed.
but now i wonder if ALL the left handed throwers are throwing baseballs, because it’s MUCH less difficult to have a baseball career as a left handed thrower than it is to have any football quarterback career. i haven’t looked at handedness in track & field, but i doubt there were many world class throwers that were left handed.
Somewhere in the organizational brain stem it is known that wide receivers and running backs aren't going to be lighting up any cities with their mind power. NFL offenses are pretty complicated - throwing a lefty into the equation basically doubles the number of plays DeyShawntey Jenkins has to remember. Best to keep it simple.
Still, we see more lefty QB's than we do lefty 3B's, SS's, 2B's, and catchers. This longstanding tradition that lefty's are not fit to play those other infield positions is one of the stupider ones clung to by baseball people.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ex-banker, @Truth, @prime noticer
Jewish Nobel Prize winners in Chemistry
2013 Karplus, Martin
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" Austria
2013 Levitt, Michael
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" South Africa
2013 Warshel, Arieh
"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems" Israel
2012 Lefkowitz, Robert J.
"for studies of G-protein-coupled receptors" USA
2011 Shechtman, Dan
"for the discovery of quasicrystals" Israel
2009 Yonath, Ada E.
"for studies of the structure and function of the ribosome" Israel
2008 Chalfie, Martin
"for the discovery and development of the green fluorescent protein, GFP" USA
2006 Kornberg, Roger. D.
"for his studies of the molecular basis of eukaryotic transcription" USA
2004 Ciechanover, Aaron
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" Israel
2004 Rose, Irwin
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" USA
2004 Hershko, Avram
"for the discovery of ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation" Hungary
2000 Heeger, Alan J.
"for the discovery and development of conductive polymers" USA
1998 Kohn, Walter
"for his development of the density-functional theory" Austria
1994 Olah, George A.
"for his contribution to carbocation chemistry" Hungary
1992 Marcus, Rudolph A.
"for his contributions to the theory of electron transfer reactions in chemical systems" Canada
1989 Altman, Sidney
"for their discovery of catalytic properties of RNA" Canada
1985 Hauptman, Herbert A.
"for their development of direct methods for the determination of crystal structures" USA
1985 Karle, Jerome
"for their development of direct methods for the determination of crystal structures" USA
1982 Klug, Aaron
"for his development of crystallographic electron microscopy and his structural elucidation of biologically important nucleic acid-protein complexes" Lithuania
1981 Hoffmann, Roald
"for their theories, developed independently, concerning the course of chemical reactions" Poland
1980 Gilbert, Walter
"for their contributions concerning the determination of base sequences in nucleic acids" USA
1980 Berg, Paul
"for his fundamental studies of the biochemistry of nucleic acids, with particular regard to recombinant-DNA" USA
1979 Brown, Herbert C.
"for their development of the use of boron- and phosphorus-containing compounds, respectively, into important reagents in organic synthesis" Ukraine
1977 Prigogine, Ilya
"for his contributions to non-equilibrium thermodynamics, particularly the theory of dissipative structures" Russia
1972 Stein, William H.
"for their contribution to the understanding of the connection between chemical structure and catalytic activity of the active center of the ribonuclease molecule" USA
1972 Anfinsen, Christian B.
"for his work on ribonuclease, especially concerning the connection between the amino acid sequence and the biologically active conformation" USA
1962 Perutz, Max F.
"for their studies of the structures of globular proteins" Austria
1961 Calvin, Melvin
"for his research on the carbon dioxide assimilation in plants" USA
1943 de Hevesy, George
"for his work on the use of isotopes as tracers in the study of chemical processes" Hungary
1918 Haber, Fritz
"for the synthesis of ammonia from its elements" Germany
1915 Willstatter, Richard M.
"for his researches on plant pigments, especially chlorophyll" Germany
1910 Wallach, Otto
"for his pioneer work in the field of alicyclic compounds" Germany
1906 Moissan, Henri
"for his investigation and isolation of the element fluorine, and for the adoption in the service of science of the electric furnace called after him" France
1905 von Baeyer, J. F. W. Adolf
"for his services in the advancement of organic chemistry and the chemical industry, through his work on organic dyes and hydroaromatic compounds"Replies: @AnotherDad, @Mike Tre
Sorry buddy, those are all white guys.
That’s just nonsense. I’m not suggesting that its your opinion, but it’s really, seriously stupid.
It’s like saying that practicing a thing doesn’t improve performance at that thing.
Practice tests/exams are really important – especially at university level.
That’s before considering that academics are lazy… so if the subject has a Prof of long-standing, the past 5 exams equips a student with a small-σ estimate the full range of questions that will be asked on the currentYear exam.
Through my uni career I never went into an exam without having done the available past exams – the past exams were held in the library. It was rare to get 5 years’ worth (this was the mid-1990s).
Our study group – 5 of us who had a bunch of subjects in common – did them once untimed, and once to time. We even strategised on time-budgeting – getting the quant questions squared away to save time for the waffly ‘essay’ questions.
There arent [m]any waffly essay questions in Econometrics – but in Economics subjects the exams were structured so that the ‘Stats’ majors were forced to answer at least one long-answer essay question (“Section D”), and the Essay-writer majors couldn’t avoid at least one moderately-difficult Quant question (“Section C”). Sections A and B were short-answer – usually 10 questions in each.
It was usually 25% on the line for each of “C” and “D”, and Essay-writers generally knew by the end of the exam that their ‘ceiling mark’ was 75%. Especially in Macro (which was taught out of Blanchard & Fisher, so the Section C was derivations).
KEK.
Best scorers on the Putnam exam are math geniuses (and probably just geniuses). Look at the top scorers from the last year: https://www.maa.org/programs-and-communities/member-communities/maa-awards/putnam-competition-individual-and-team-winners
Everyone who does well preps for it. But prepping isn’t enough.
Maybe we’re seeing ‘Spandrell’s IQ Shredder’:
This stands out to me — it’s not surprising that White performance catches up to Asian performance on something like the MCAT, given that Whites taking the MCAT have pretty much all passed through a highly selective filter (O-chem, as was in the news recently, along with other premed science courses, etc.). Sort of like Army Blacks scoring much closer to Army Whites on account of the selection filter. I’d expect something similar with Asian/White GRE scores going into graduate programs in the hard sciences.
LSAT is surprising to me not just because of the language issues, but because law is kind of where the leftover Asians who are too thick to go into medicine or science (e.g. people like me) end up. If we were really smart we wouldn’t be lawyers — we’d be medical researchers or working at Google or in private equity or solving cold fusion or something. But it may just be that it’s sort of the same for Whites. Law picks up the people who are a bit smarter than average, but . . more glib than intelligent. And so the test scores even out in the end.
My best friend is the daughter of Chinese immigrants. Her father immigrated to Oklahoma during WWII. He opened a very successful Chinese Restaurant. Her mother and brother remained in China during the Japanese invasion. Her father sent money home to support them.
Over 20 years later, her mother informed her father that she was coming to Oklahoma. By that time, her father had a Japanese mistress, who was the waitress at his restaurant and the only Asian in town, besides himself. A lot of drama ensued, but as a result of her mother’s immigration, my friend was born in 1966. She grew up as the only Asian in her school and thrived. She worked at her father’s restaurant.
Her father sold his restaurant and moved to California, so my friend could attend college here. Her scores were not high enough for UC Berkeley, so she was admitted to Cal State Hayward, now, known as, Cal State East Bay. Her scores were, most likely, higher than other minorities who were admitted to UC Berkeley.
She is down with Covid right now, along with her white husband, although having been vaxxed and boosted to the max, and always double masking. I admire her tremendously!
I don’t think Asians are really smarter. They’re more diligent generally and have better quantitative skills, but are weaker in other areas.
A potential reason for their outperformance on standardized tests is that for 2000 years the society has selected for that attribute. (At least in China, not sure about Japan or Korea). I’ve read that China has been using standardized tests since before Christ to screen for beauracratic jobs, which led to a very comfortable lifestyle given the corruption in government. Interestingly, this is said to have led to China having much greater social mobility than the West up until the Scientific Revolution.
Greed is overrated in explanations these days.
https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=38
Test scores are not declining for the general population. When you control for ethnicity, it’s likely that test scores have improved.
Secondly, how many Asian doctors and lawyers can you think of? Those are both fields Asians tend not to enter.Replies: @Renard, @Jonathan Mason, @Anonymous, @Anon, @Alden
I have encountered a lot of Vietnamese, Indian and Pakistani doctors.
Explanations.
1. Increasingly selective mass migration from Asian countries.
2. Intensive “Tiger Mother” parenting strategies, which are not practiced by other races.
3. Graduate students are a selective subpopulation of the overall population.
4. Asians understand that affirmative action is keeping them out of competitive universities, so
they must work even harder to gain admission.
5. Sophisticated test prep centers.
6. Sophisticated cheating strategies. This may be more applicable to testing that happens overseas.
Republicans should have blocked Ketanji Brown’s nomination to the Supreme Court on the grounds that we’ve already had two black Justices but zero Asian ones.
Let Dems argue blacks should go up 3-0 over Asians, who have judges who could qualify on merit alone.
Secondly, how many Asian doctors and lawyers can you think of? Those are both fields Asians tend not to enter.Replies: @Renard, @Jonathan Mason, @Anonymous, @Anon, @Alden
In the United States, Asians are taking over medicine and law.
i used to think this was because there was something about a right handed spiral. better for rolling out and throwing? easier to catch? left footed punters produce kicks that are harder to field, this is known for sure, so maybe the opposite effect is in operation here for throwing. indeed, perhaps this is WHY nature picked right handed for humans instead of left handed.
but now i wonder if ALL the left handed throwers are throwing baseballs, because it's MUCH less difficult to have a baseball career as a left handed thrower than it is to have any football quarterback career. i haven't looked at handedness in track & field, but i doubt there were many world class throwers that were left handed.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike Tre
Indeed. In baseball, the left handed pitcher’s advantage appears to be not that his pitches move more (they now measure every pitch to the inch) but just that it moves different from what batters are used to growing up. (
But that gives lefty pitchers a big advantage.
In contrast, unfamiliarity with lefty throws probably hurts in football where the aim is to connect with receivers on your team, not fool batters on the other team.
So if you are a tall strong-armed lefty at age 16 or whenever, the odds of making a million dollars per year as a lefty NFL QB are a lower than making it as a lefty pitcher.
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/gRkAAOSwHwRd8XRG/s-l500.jpg
It was done because although blacks failed reading comprehension and verbal logic they were hidden geniuses who would excel at pictorial sudoku.
Didn’t work at all. Turned out blacks were even worse at the new non verbal reasoning and logic sections. Even more failures than when reading comprehension was half the test.
The Supreme Court will do what it will about this case. As the Supreme Court has been doing since Marbury vs Madison 1804. If the naive Men of UNZ think that the abortion ruling means the court will rule favorably for conservative issues such as merit job hiring and college admission think again.
It’s the height of naïveté and ignorance for a White person to advocate for non Whites. The Asians have the Chinese government behind them. A far more powerful lobby than the blacks and Hispanics have. We idiot self destructive Whites being the only group in America that doesn’t lobby for itself.
And if the Supreme Court rules that Harvard discriminated against Asians it doesn’t mean affirmative action discrimination against Whites will ever end.Replies: @Nicholas Stix, @Twinkie
That’s why I found Kanye West’s recent stunt underwhelming.
The impression of Indians as a group when there are so many sub groups of this category is hilarious. Or laziness.
On the Asian test question, I speculate that the bottom of the Asian test takes (say bottom 1/2 and bottom quintile) is much higher than the other groups. Often times the poorest and least privileged Asians work much harder than those who are inclined to wallow in the woe ie me/us oppression Olympics (and that includes low performing whites in Appalachia)
A breakdown would be nice by quintile if available
1. Increasingly selective mass migration from Asian countries.
2. Intensive "Tiger Mother" parenting strategies, which are not practiced by other races.
3. Graduate students are a selective subpopulation of the overall population.
4. Asians understand that affirmative action is keeping them out of competitive universities, so
they must work even harder to gain admission.
5. Sophisticated test prep centers.
6. Sophisticated cheating strategies. This may be more applicable to testing that happens overseas.Replies: @Oracle of MD
The first observation is absurd to anywho who knows the contours of recent immigrants and the ratio of 2nd and 3rd generation Asian in relation to the FOB Asians.
Aside from getting Ted Kennedy to take their SAT, how do Asians cheat?
Steve, you reasoned about this in May 2015 while dissecting an NYT op-ed signed by the infamous Richard C. Atkinson which called for further dumbing-down of the already-debilitated SAT. You pointed specifically to Chinese and Chinese-adjacent-ethnicities Tiger-Mom history with test-prep. You noted that earlier g-loaded versions of the SAT had been resistant to coaching, but that re-architecting the SAT into a test of fixed-curriculum memorization (which is what Atkinson and chums had been demanding and doing for over three decades) was catnip to Tiger Moms.[1]
I had the privilege of sharing some info about Atkinson and his war on the SAT in the comments then. However, I wonder now whether I missed something important at that time, something your remarks should have prompted me to recognize, especially since in 2014 you had already asked “How is the New SAT Not Going to Help Asians the Most?”
Atkinson had a long history of collaboration with the Chinese government and Chinese academics. Per Atkinson’s official biography at the National Science Foundation:
From the same NSF document:
Of course, “the post-affirmative action era” means “the era after 1996, when California’s voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 209 to outlaw (again) racial discrimination in public university admissions, but were thwarted by university administrators’ massive resistance.” Atkinson’s “new approaches to admissions” were deliberate subversion of Prop. 209 that reinstated stiff racial preferences under a veil of bafflegab (“eligibility in the local context,” etc.). Atkinson’s “reforms in college admissions testing” were specifically intended to halt the accretion of objective evidence that racially-preferred candidates were less qualified academically. Test scores are the bane of college administrators facing “reverse racism” lawsuits (like the critical 1978 Supreme Court case Regents of the University of California v. Bakke)— just look at the Harvard admins squirming in the witness box recently.
From 1980 to 2000 California experienced exponential growth in its Chinese immigrant population. In 1994 Atkinson coerced the removal of analogies from the SAT and got it “recentered.” In 2001 Atkinson launched a new war against the SAT which lead to the huge dumbing-down of 2005. Atkinson himself called this “revolutionary change” which was “very much in accord with my [Atkinson’s] original proposal” of 2001.
Based on his remarks at the time, I believed (along with most analysts, I think) that the chief goal of Atkinson’s war on the SAT was to hide “the gap” which is so familiar to readers here, in support of race-preferences in admissions.
But perhaps there was another motive lurking in the background. Atkinson knew that a dumbed-down SAT would be more coachable and so did his Chinese friends, including the famous Chinese-American Chancellor of UC Berkeley (1990-97) Chang-Lin Tien, well known as an outspoken advocate of both racial preferences— Tien loudly opposed Prop. 209— and increased Chinese enrollment at UC. Maybe Atkinson wanted to help the children of powerful Chinese get admitted to American colleges and universities by making the SAT more amenable to Chinese-style test-prep— a speculation for which I have no direct evidence. Tien seems to have thought that anti-white discrimination would favor Chinese applicants. His personal campaign against Proposition 209 is widely credited with producing a 70-30 vote against Prop. 209 by Chinese and East Asian voters in California. (Twenty-three years later it appeared that Chinese and East Asian voters likely gave only about 55-45 support to 2020’s attempt (“Proposition 16”) by California’s left-wing leadership to repeal Prop 209, so perhaps Tien’s influence faded after he died in 2002.)
I should point out that Atkinson did credit American of Japanese extraction Pat Hayashi, in 2001 his assistant as Associate President of the University of California and a member of the College Board’s Board of Trustees (and former long-serving UC Berkeley admissions officer) with helping Atkinson attack the SAT. Hayashi was in fact Atkinson’s proud hatchet-man for the UC’s evasion of Proposition 209. He personally led the creation of new schemes for racial discrimination in admissions. Hayashi later boasted of terminating in 2006 (when Atkinson had been gone for a few years) the UC’s participation in the National Merit Scholarship program specifically because it used test scores (the PSAT, a miniature version of the SAT) to choose scholarship recipients. I have no basis to suggest that Hayashi’s views were Tiger-Mom friendly, quite the opposite: the National Merit Scholarship program he killed had been instituted in 1990 at UC Berkeley by Chinese-American Chancellor Chang-Lin Tien while Hayashi was Associate Vice-Chancellor for admissions there. I don’t know whether Hayashi favored Chang-Lin Tien’s test-friendly policy at that time, but I’m pretty confident Tiger Moms did. There was certainly no dispute between Hayashi and Tien over racial preferences in admissions. In 2018 Tien recounted that he “felt I could not really in my conscience work with the new rules [non-discriminatory admissions from 1996], but later on I changed my mind. I felt I had to work some program out to sustain, to help affirmative action, although we are not allowed to use race and religion, color, as a criterion for admission.” Hayashi and Tien found multiple proxies for race and used them to obfuscate their reimplementation of all the racial discrimination they had previously practiced openly.
Anyway, according to a 2018 report from the Migration Policy Institute:
As of 2014-18 (per US Census ACS data analyzed by MPI), 32% of Chinese immigrants to the USA resided in California.
Think of all the Tiger Moms in China and in the USA trying to test-prep their kids into the University of California as well as the Ivy League schools. The Urban Dictionary has a cite for “UCLA” standing for “University of Caucasians Lost among Asians” back in 2004 (before the huge SAT dumb-down of 2005) and the quip probably goes back further. Atkinson was not likely to be unaware of the existence and predelictions of these fine people.
Keeping all that in mind, it’s curious that the most visible SAT “reform” only lasted a single decade: the SAT essay portion, worth 800 out of 2400 total SAT points during its era, abolished in 2016. Atkinson had pushed hard for that essay portion.
Like many people, I had thought the SAT essay portion had two motivations: first and most important, to dilute the influence of the objective portions of the test; and second, to allow essay-readers to award extra points to students who wrote racial appeals.
I don’t think any scheme to give extra points to racially-preferred students worked out; the official scoring rubrics could not emphasize it (too much danger of negative publicity) and it was dangerously coachable– any test-taker could write in racial stuff and the graders had no way to check for Dolezality.
Diminishing the effect of the objective portions on the overall score worked well enough to disguise the traditional American racial gap, but I think the essay portion annoyed Chinese test-takers, who average less English proficiency than other immigrants, let alone American natives. Per the MPI report linked above:
In the years after the essay portion was introduced in 2005, MIT’s Les Perelman discovered that the College Board’s chintzy essay grading meant that Atkinson’s vision of a “predictive” essay test was not achieved. SAT essay graders had only about 2 minutes per test to look for sheer length, the use of fancy words, and the inclusion of some formal quotation (even if it had little relevance to the assigned subject).
That meant the essay portion was quite coachable (Perelman himself proved that by coaching kids to get high scores on it by literally writing down a bunch of nonsense!) but prepping for it cost time Chinese students and their parents would rather have spent test-prepping math. Worse, many Chinese students resented having to prep on material their logorrhea-afflicted Jewish and even American black competitors seemed to have more innate talent for. Chinese (and related East Asian) students are notorious for talent skewed toward the mathematical and away from the verbal.
By 2013, Steve, you were writing about how the incoming David Coleman was under pressure from lots of folks to scrap the essay portion. Coleman told Inside Higher Ed that he would create “a new kind of test, one that would promote educational values.” You quoted part of the story you were analyzing for the cloud around that silver lining:
On the other hand, the 2005 SAT had brought Algebra II questions into the math portion. Though very coachable, those seemed likely to trip up American-minority test-takers (I’m not aware of public data on this point). The new questions probably boosted the scores of Chinese test-takers because they replaced more g-loaded items.
Abolishing the SAT essay portion pulled the maximum overall score back from 2400 to 1600 and refocused the test on the material most amenable to Chinese-style test-prepping. Of course the essay had not worked well as a counterweight to test-prepping, but rather than restructure it, Coleman just removed it. All other g-loaded questions had been removed already or were openly targeted for removal by Coleman, so after 2015 the SAT was
geldedshorn of every item which could possibly discomfit test-preppers. Since “Asians” as Americans call them are the champion test-preppers of all time, the SAT is now their lap dog.(An optional essay test offered along with the SAT for a few years after 2016 was discontinued in 2022.)
[1] In 2015, Steve, you questioned the then-86-years-old Atkinson’s grasp of statistics, suggesting he was too stupid to realize what neutering the SAT would do. Although I suggested at that time that Atkinson’s intellect might indeed have faded a bit with old age, I thought then and now that Atkinson understood statistics very well indeed during his active career and was simply an expert and aggressive political liar. Seriously, look at Atkinson’s CV. He was a much acclaimed math professor and statistics expert. When he promoted claptrap like S. J. Gould’s Mismeasure of Man in the mid-2000’s to bolster his war on the SAT, Atkinson knew full well that it was garbage. That was why he promoted it. Atkinson’s personal writings about his campaign against the SAT are filled with misdirection and evasion easily detected by students of the issues.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLqbhA0RVRn_1fLT00OLrv9wWWHE8eMlzuyFnIO__LnCG7L9MtAppZoWpAVPX8m2q2Aq47CUkwq4N7S8KTBRCdx8sZOqavwCMzGj3NDhaDBCidFxthjU-lndlvngbpAGUbH4YhLSxcFgEgyFcA_AAIrBLKYStGtCbTJborx5vp-yHHXVQju-Ds1mjTKg/s640/cpsuti.png
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKB6HnGX9MRnC_QqrMmXebBgtOmeggQZly1bQdFariJBVGnWfxyDsNCBb-EQ2Esb9SevDGMTcC4sMcm6HenZTzbOAUhJC-_UWbeVOpbrXjUD51iZTusDFavK2qDU0fnQzYSLFkuw3De7rAvAyJ6tb_-bowmJaYfObGA9lCkS3lLgSwO201X3ZMSEQl_Q/s640/rcps.png
OT – Boston University and other researchers develop hybrid Corona virus with an 80% lethality rate in “humanized mice”:
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/boston-university-engineers-sars-cov-2-chimera-80-mortality-rate-mice
This research was funded by NIAID, among other organizations. I’m guessing that NIAID was the principal sponsor.
And yet Mr. Science, Anthony Fauci, assured us that his shop doesn’t support Gain of Function research.
Secondly, how many Asian doctors and lawyers can you think of? Those are both fields Asians tend not to enter.Replies: @Renard, @Jonathan Mason, @Anonymous, @Anon, @Alden
The point is not how many Asians are interested in law and medicine (and I think they are about the same as whites here), but rather why the reported mean LSAT and MCAT scores for self-identified East Asians (this is not the UK, dot-Indians are not Asian here) are so low relative to Asian performance on there SAT. There’s no reason why only the smarter Asians would skip law and medicine. They’re professions that pay a lot but require Asian-style hard work and long hours (so—stereotype trigger alert—blacks might avoid them or bail out to another profession after a couple of years).
Steve is pointing out that the notorious dumbing down of the SAT has changed it from a prep-resistant test to a prep-rewarding test. The LSAT and MCAT are also beginning to dumb down, but the SAT was the pioneer in that respect.
Bardon Kaldian wrote to Altai:
There are several obvious reasons for that:
First, we now know all of the fundamental physical laws that govern the everyday physical world: from chemical bonding to solid-state physics to stellar structure. We have plucked the (relatively) low-hanging fruit.
Second, the huge influx of money from 1945 through 1980 let us go for broke without worrying about developing experimental technology along a path that could be sustained long term. I remember around 1980 attending a summer school at SLAC that featured discussions of what to do when just building larger and larger particle accelerators would become obviously impossible. Interesting discussions, nothing much came of them.
Perhaps most important, it is really tough to get tenure by pursuing the deep issues that still plague fundamental physics — notably the foundational problems of quantum mechanics. This year’s Nobel prize is really important because it awards people who did just that — notably Clauser and Aspect — but they were taking a real risk with their careers.
I’m actually working on some of those issues, but I am not part of the academic mainstream, competing for tenure and grants. Similarly with my friend Sabine Hossenfelder.
In another thread, someone suggested that sometimes fields of endeavor simply require a period of going fallow.
https://youtu.be/cZ9YAFYIBOU
She says the sexes were separated in sport because otherwise it would be predictable and thus boring. Predictable, yes, but boring? Sporting competitions in ancient Greece were held in the nude!Replies: @PhysicistDave
Just- there are no new puzzling & inexplicable experimental data..... except a few of them, possibly.Replies: @PhysicistDave
On the other hand, batting lefty probably gave John Elway an edge over other right-handed quarterbacks. He was used to looking over both shoulders.
Outside of Sikhs and some Gujus running hotels, there isn't very much "normie" immigration from India (much less from the lowest castes). But there is a high influx of Brahmins and some elite merchant castes, who generally get here to work in tech, often by getting a masters in CS or EE or an MBA from American university.
I.e. Indians in America are a highly selected population and they tend to have kids who if not matching their parents are generally at least solidly "college material" and often quite sharp. (I know several in both categories.) So more of them relative to other groups pushes the Asian-white gap open wider.Replies: @Twinkie
Kudos to you! Despite all the digital ink spilled in the commentary here, not one person but you remembered a very salient point I made repeatedly here – that the demographics of “Asians” in American has undergone a dramatic change in the recent decades.
In 1940, there were fewer than 2,500 Indians (dot, not feather) in the United States. In contrast, the number of Chinese in the country the same year was 77,500. Meanwhile the overall Asian number was 255,000. In other words, Indians were less than 1% of the Asian population in America (and about 1/30th of the Chinese population)
By 1980, Indians numbered over 361,500, Chinese 806,000, out of overall Asian-American population of 3,500,000. (So Indians were over 10% of Asians here).
By 2000, Indians were 1.7 million, Chinese 2.4 million, out of nearly 12 million Asians in America (Indians were over 14% of Asians).
By 2020, Indians numbered 4.46 million, Chinese over 5 million, out of 24 million Asians (Indians being close to 19%).
Today – as of 2022 – Indians are estimated to have exceeded the Chinese in population as the largest Asian group in America due to the fact that they are the largest legal immigrant group in the U.S. and account for somewhere between 20-25% of all Asians in the U.S. They now significantly outnumber non-Chinese East Asian groups such as Japanese and Koreans who used to outnumber Indians. (These numbers are all from Wikipedia.)
“Asians” in America today are increasingly less “yellow” and more “brown,” less East Asian (especially non-Chinese East Asian) and more South Asian.
Now, Indian immigrants in the U.S. are enormously more selected educationally than other Asians, let alone non-Asians in the U.S.: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/fact-sheet/asian-americans-indians-in-the-u-s/
In the first place, unlike other Asian groups (except perhaps Filipinos), they arrive with a very high level of English proficiency. And they have an incredibly high fraction of college graduates and holders of post-graduate education at 75% and 43%, respectively. The comparable numbers are 33% and 13% for all Americans and 54% and 24% among all Asians in the U.S. This means a substantially higher fraction of Indians in America have graduate degrees than ordinary Americans have college degrees.
This alone is bound to have a sizable impact on how “Asians” perform educationally in the U.S. (and there is evidence that non-Asian, especially Chinese, immigration in the recent decades has been more highly selective as well, if not quite to the same extent as that of Indians). Yet so few people (including Mr. Sailer) seem to acknowledge or understand this dramatic demographic transformation of “Asians” in the country in their discussions on Asian-related issues.
Not just more South Asians Americans, higher ability than the late gen legacy Chinese Americans. However at the very top, say 99.9 percentile like the Int Math Olympiad where there were 4 Chinese American with IMO22 rank better than 45 and the sole South Asian American was at IMO22 rank 230. From the Mandarin transliterate surnames 3 out of the 4 Chinese Americans are children of recent migrants from mainland China. US could not field a SECOND LATE GEN LEGACY White American or Chinese American with better than IMO22 rank 230 ability, results of the poisonous DIE dogma across the board for all LEGACY American students. 5 Peru Hispanics from the about 600,000 pop did have IMO22 rank better than 230. So are 5 Saudis in that range.
=====
From the (smart fraction) 90 percentile NAEP results for Asian by US states with regression with respect to the percentages of Asian ethnicities, the contribution (effect size) of the ethnicities on the overall NEAP Asian scores can be determined. Only states with all the ethnicities considered are included. Indian migrant students have slightly higher effect on the NEAP score than that for Chinese. Surprisingly Cambodian is at the top. Most Chinese Americans are descendants from the historical railroad builders and gold miners whereas the South Asian Indians are from the more recent selected immigrants.
lm(formula = Asi90 ~ Chinese + Japanese + Korean + Vietnamese +
Indian + Filipino + Hmong + Cambodian)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 211.4987 34.9595 6.050 8.08e-06 ***
Cambodian 2.4253 1.1323 2.142 0.045369 *
Korean 2.3114 0.6833 3.383 0.003125 **
Indian 1.8924 0.4194 4.512 0.000238 *** <--
Chinese 1.8183 0.4686 3.880 0.001008 ** <--
Vietnamese 1.7957 0.6097 2.945 0.008309 **
Hmong 1.3015 0.4258 3.057 0.006488 **
Filipino 1.1354 0.3705 3.065 0.006379 **
Japanese 0.9207 0.4766 1.932 0.068445 .
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 7.862 on 19 degrees of freedom
(1 observation deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared: 0.7989, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7142
F-statistic: 9.435 on 8 and 19 DF, p-value: 3.327e-05
It was done because although blacks failed reading comprehension and verbal logic they were hidden geniuses who would excel at pictorial sudoku.
Didn’t work at all. Turned out blacks were even worse at the new non verbal reasoning and logic sections. Even more failures than when reading comprehension was half the test.
The Supreme Court will do what it will about this case. As the Supreme Court has been doing since Marbury vs Madison 1804. If the naive Men of UNZ think that the abortion ruling means the court will rule favorably for conservative issues such as merit job hiring and college admission think again.
It’s the height of naïveté and ignorance for a White person to advocate for non Whites. The Asians have the Chinese government behind them. A far more powerful lobby than the blacks and Hispanics have. We idiot self destructive Whites being the only group in America that doesn’t lobby for itself.
And if the Supreme Court rules that Harvard discriminated against Asians it doesn’t mean affirmative action discrimination against Whites will ever end.Replies: @Nicholas Stix, @Twinkie
You are so delusional, it’s hilarious. You think the Chinese government is behind Indians who are now the plurality of “Asians” in America?
The solution seems obvious: everybody from goofball to genius takes college entrance exams these days. No wonder Asians walk away with higher scores. But college weeds out the idiots and the otherwise ill-suited, so post grads tend to be more the cream of the crop and thus the gap between Asians and others is smaller.
If Bushes are Arab agents, Obama is a Kenyan agent, Trump is a Russian agent, why can’t Indians be Chinese agents? It is all due to Quantum Entanglement. They even gave a Nobel Prize for that recently.
Alden is deranged. She thinks that the educational and professional achievements of Asians in America are all propaganda and that most Asians live in flophouses in San Francisco and such.Replies: @Thomm
The SAT may be easier to cheat on.
OTOH, the main goal of testing has been to dumb down tests so that blacks do better. The last thing they want to do is increase the g loading. This has had the side effect of causing many Asians to ceiling out on the test. 1600s were once rare but now there are thousands.
So I repeat my question - how would you construct a test that specifically harmed white males without harming Asians as well?Replies: @Anonymous, @Whereismyhandle, @AnotherDad, @dux.ie
The SJWonkers are trying to do the reverse by sabotage the next PISA survey that favour White and harm Asian scores with Responsive Social Equality SRE of outcomes, the new PISARSE framework, by emphasizing on the Big 5 Openness personality trait, trying to turn OECD into Organization for Equity and Class Diversity, and PISA survey into personality survey. Of cause US is higher in B5Openness score than the Asian countries.
Further down the draft,
Who will set the creative thinking questions?? The US ACT Inc. that set the US ACT test.
https://leadershipblog.act.org/2018/09/oecd-selects-act-to-develop-pisa-2021.html .
What make problem 2 so difficult to the Chinese? Well it is a topic that any self rightous communists will be allergic to. One of the algorithms for solving that is called IMPERIALIST COMPETITIVE ALGORITHM https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261432778_Wind_farm_reactive_power_optimization_by_using_imperialist_competitive_algorithm /joke
Even 3 out of the 4 US Chinese American competitors, 2 scored 1/7 and 1 scored 0/7, and ALL OF THEM HAD IMO11 RANK BETTER THAN OR EQUAL TO 25. China is suppose to have the highest number of wind mill in the world. Oh. IMO11 rank 1 was a German girl and the only competitor with the FULL OVERALL SCORE OF 42.
First, we now know all of the fundamental physical laws that govern the everyday physical world: from chemical bonding to solid-state physics to stellar structure. We have plucked the (relatively) low-hanging fruit.
Second, the huge influx of money from 1945 through 1980 let us go for broke without worrying about developing experimental technology along a path that could be sustained long term. I remember around 1980 attending a summer school at SLAC that featured discussions of what to do when just building larger and larger particle accelerators would become obviously impossible. Interesting discussions, nothing much came of them.
Perhaps most important, it is really tough to get tenure by pursuing the deep issues that still plague fundamental physics -- notably the foundational problems of quantum mechanics. This year's Nobel prize is really important because it awards people who did just that -- notably Clauser and Aspect -- but they were taking a real risk with their careers.
I'm actually working on some of those issues, but I am not part of the academic mainstream, competing for tenure and grants. Similarly with my friend Sabine Hossenfelder.
In another thread, someone suggested that sometimes fields of endeavor simply require a period of going fallow.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bardon Kaldian, @Sam Malone, @Prester John
You’re friends with a YouTuber with over half-a-million subscribers? I’m impressed. How does she survive off it? Patreon? “Merch”? Her video on the diesel controversy admits she can only afford to drive used, so her think tank stipend can’t be that much.
Her interests overlap with Steve’s, but, being German, she makes things more complicated rather than simpler. Here she is on a common topic:
She says the sexes were separated in sport because otherwise it would be predictable and thus boring. Predictable, yes, but boring? Sporting competitions in ancient Greece were held in the nude!
As to how she survives, she is married (to another physicist, as I recall), so the family does have another income (she also has twin daughters, by the way). She has managed to get short-term funding from various sources in Europe over the last few years, but that seems to have dried up. And she has said that her books, though quite successful for books on physics, do not bring in much money.
I think she is managing to monetize her Youtube channel, but, again, I doubt it brings in that much.
So, the short answer is that it is financially tough for Sabine. It would be less tough if she had been willing to jump into every fad as it passes in physics, but she chose not to do that.
By the way, I strongly recommend her book Lost in Math: I think the title is a bit misleading, but she did a great job interviewing a bunch of well-known physicists about the state of fundamental physics. Two of the people she interviewed I myself knew fairly well -- Weinberg (from whom I took a year-long class) and Polchinski (we were undergrads together at Caltech) -- and I could actually "hear" the tone and cadence of their voices in her interviews. Sabine really captured their personalities as well as their perspectives on physics.
First, we now know all of the fundamental physical laws that govern the everyday physical world: from chemical bonding to solid-state physics to stellar structure. We have plucked the (relatively) low-hanging fruit.
Second, the huge influx of money from 1945 through 1980 let us go for broke without worrying about developing experimental technology along a path that could be sustained long term. I remember around 1980 attending a summer school at SLAC that featured discussions of what to do when just building larger and larger particle accelerators would become obviously impossible. Interesting discussions, nothing much came of them.
Perhaps most important, it is really tough to get tenure by pursuing the deep issues that still plague fundamental physics -- notably the foundational problems of quantum mechanics. This year's Nobel prize is really important because it awards people who did just that -- notably Clauser and Aspect -- but they were taking a real risk with their careers.
I'm actually working on some of those issues, but I am not part of the academic mainstream, competing for tenure and grants. Similarly with my friend Sabine Hossenfelder.
In another thread, someone suggested that sometimes fields of endeavor simply require a period of going fallow.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bardon Kaldian, @Sam Malone, @Prester John
We probably need a conceptual revolution like in the first 30 years of the 20th C.
Just- there are no new puzzling & inexplicable experimental data….. except a few of them, possibly.
The quote from BK from a year ago pretty much answers that question.
Mark, by the way, is a very upbeat guy, well-connected within the field: Mark now holds a named chair at Caltech.
If Mark sees the field as stagnating... well, that is dispositive.
(BK: thanks for that comment which I had somehow missed a year ago.)
OT: Another problematic Steve S.
What!?!?
How is it even possible to be too Diverse?!? That’s just crazy talk.
But DIVERSITY is our strength.— Vice President J. Danforth Quayle, Constitutional Scholar of note.
[drum roll]
Yes, yes and YES!!!
I thought the state was 90+% white, but Wikipedia says 83% in 2020 (98 in 1970). Are they paying black and hispanic kids from other states to go up there and freeze their asses off, or are the white kids leaving or going private--or just not in existence?Replies: @Anon
geldedshorn of every item which could possibly discomfit test-preppers. Since "Asians" as Americans call them are the champion test-preppers of all time, the SAT is now their lap dog.(An optional essay test offered along with the SAT for a few years after 2016 was discontinued in 2022.)[1] In 2015, Steve, you questioned the then-86-years-old Atkinson's grasp of statistics, suggesting he was too stupid to realize what neutering the SAT would do. Although I suggested at that time that Atkinson's intellect might indeed have faded a bit with old age, I thought then and now that Atkinson understood statistics very well indeed during his active career and was simply an expert and aggressive political liar. Seriously, look at Atkinson's CV. He was a much acclaimed math professor and statistics expert. When he promoted claptrap like S. J. Gould's Mismeasure of Man in the mid-2000's to bolster his war on the SAT, Atkinson knew full well that it was garbage. That was why he promoted it. Atkinson's personal writings about his campaign against the SAT are filled with misdirection and evasion easily detected by students of the issues.Replies: @Anonymous, @dux.ie
Pithy.
The contrast between the SAT and MCAT result can’t be explained because of Asian selection bias because Asian families really do push their kids to become doctors. One thing I’ve noticed is that on TikTok there seems to be a lot of smart, rural, White doctors. I guess the algorithm has figured out I enjoy watching videos on medical advice. I wouldn’t be surprised if smart, rural, White kids are more likely to go into medicine rather than law because of law’s general snobbiness and having to move to a big city to practice BigLaw. I don’t think the effect is big enough to explain most of the MCAT vs SAT discrepancy, but maybe these neglected brains, as Steve has rightly pointed out, are providing a slight White selection bias on the White MCAT scores relatively.
Other than medicine, Asians these days are focused on engineering and finance. These fields require spatial and quantitative abilities that are better suited for their attitudes. They also pay extremely well. Law and medicine don’t pay as well as they used to. Even if they do pay well, it’s a lot of hard work, and you’re probably making less per hour than you could have in Tech or finance. Asians also go into these fields because they don’t require a graduate degree. Many Asian families discourage their daughters from going to graduate school, even medical school, because they will be too old to have a good marriage after a Masters + PhD or medical school + residency.Replies: @BRK2, @Steve Sailer, @Twinkie, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar
Thanks.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if smart, rural, White kids are more likely to go into medicine rather than law because of law’s general snobbiness and having to move to a big city to practice BigLaw.”
Most of the high paying lawyer jobs in America are in downtown skyscrapers. If that’s what you like that’s great. If you don’t like downtowns, not so great.
It’s a lot more likely that the Bushes are in league with Saudi royal family than Indians in America are backed by the Chinese government.
Alden is deranged. She thinks that the educational and professional achievements of Asians in America are all propaganda and that most Asians live in flophouses in San Francisco and such.
The contrast between the SAT and MCAT result can’t be explained because of Asian selection bias because Asian families really do push their kids to become doctors. One thing I’ve noticed is that on TikTok there seems to be a lot of smart, rural, White doctors. I guess the algorithm has figured out I enjoy watching videos on medical advice. I wouldn’t be surprised if smart, rural, White kids are more likely to go into medicine rather than law because of law’s general snobbiness and having to move to a big city to practice BigLaw. I don’t think the effect is big enough to explain most of the MCAT vs SAT discrepancy, but maybe these neglected brains, as Steve has rightly pointed out, are providing a slight White selection bias on the White MCAT scores relatively.
Other than medicine, Asians these days are focused on engineering and finance. These fields require spatial and quantitative abilities that are better suited for their attitudes. They also pay extremely well. Law and medicine don’t pay as well as they used to. Even if they do pay well, it’s a lot of hard work, and you’re probably making less per hour than you could have in Tech or finance. Asians also go into these fields because they don’t require a graduate degree. Many Asian families discourage their daughters from going to graduate school, even medical school, because they will be too old to have a good marriage after a Masters + PhD or medical school + residency.Replies: @BRK2, @Steve Sailer, @Twinkie, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar
That’s because Indians are now the largest Asian group in the U.S., with an extreme educational immigrant selectivity to boot as I have noted repeatedly.
In Korea itself, engineering was the most desirable college major until the 1980’s. For the past decade or two, it’s been law (which tells you about the transition of the Korean economy to a more service-oriented one). Now it’s increasingly computer science and finance. A cousin of mine went to a Korean equivalent of a podunk college and majored in some random thing, but got himself a bunch of computer certifications. He is now a mid-level manager at a tech firm and got himself a wife who graduated from Yonsei University (equivalent to Yale locally) who is more attractive than he is.
That’s not the reason. It’s because, in the aftermath of the Korean War, the South Korean government militarized the society and turned the country into a garrison state, in which elementary school kids learned to march in formation in gym class and martial arts were taught in school, and middle school kids learned to disassemble and assemble M1 carbines. You hardly see drunks brawling in Tokyo or even Shanghai, but it’s a common occurrence in Seoul. Drunk salarymen will even fight with cops. Very “Irish of the Orient.”
It’s not for random reasons that there were “rooftop Koreans,” but no “rooftop Chinese” or “rooftop Hindus” in America and for many years 70-80% of Asian cadets at West Point were ethnic Koreans.
This. Being a doctor these days is long years of studying, a huge debt, lots of regulations, hard work, disgruntled patients, and less pay than going into tech and financial services. I knew lots of East Asian doctors growing up, but very few of their children have followed. Meanwhile, medicine is increasingly dominated by foreign medical graduates, an overwhelming majority of who are from India.
https://youtu.be/cZ9YAFYIBOU
She says the sexes were separated in sport because otherwise it would be predictable and thus boring. Predictable, yes, but boring? Sporting competitions in ancient Greece were held in the nude!Replies: @PhysicistDave
Reg Cæsar asked me:
Well… perhaps I should have said “friendly acquiantance”: we have had a number of conversation online on her blog. Alas, since I am in Sacramento and she is on the Continent, we can’t just “do lunch”!
As to how she survives, she is married (to another physicist, as I recall), so the family does have another income (she also has twin daughters, by the way). She has managed to get short-term funding from various sources in Europe over the last few years, but that seems to have dried up. And she has said that her books, though quite successful for books on physics, do not bring in much money.
I think she is managing to monetize her Youtube channel, but, again, I doubt it brings in that much.
So, the short answer is that it is financially tough for Sabine. It would be less tough if she had been willing to jump into every fad as it passes in physics, but she chose not to do that.
By the way, I strongly recommend her book Lost in Math: I think the title is a bit misleading, but she did a great job interviewing a bunch of well-known physicists about the state of fundamental physics. Two of the people she interviewed I myself knew fairly well — Weinberg (from whom I took a year-long class) and Polchinski (we were undergrads together at Caltech) — and I could actually “hear” the tone and cadence of their voices in her interviews. Sabine really captured their personalities as well as their perspectives on physics.
i used to think this was because there was something about a right handed spiral. better for rolling out and throwing? easier to catch? left footed punters produce kicks that are harder to field, this is known for sure, so maybe the opposite effect is in operation here for throwing. indeed, perhaps this is WHY nature picked right handed for humans instead of left handed.
but now i wonder if ALL the left handed throwers are throwing baseballs, because it's MUCH less difficult to have a baseball career as a left handed thrower than it is to have any football quarterback career. i haven't looked at handedness in track & field, but i doubt there were many world class throwers that were left handed.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike Tre
As a lefty, left handed QB’s are extremely impractical in an NFL offense. The left tackle is the highest paid lineman specifically because his job is to protect the blind side of a right handed QB in pass protection. So conversely, a LH QB needs the right tackle to be the best pass blocker on the team. Further, everything else has to be reversed to accommodate the lefty: Rollouts, waggles, bootlegs, draw plays, RPOs, blocking schemes for the running backs, and all of the wide out patterns that go with those changes.
Somewhere in the organizational brain stem it is known that wide receivers and running backs aren’t going to be lighting up any cities with their mind power. NFL offenses are pretty complicated – throwing a lefty into the equation basically doubles the number of plays DeyShawntey Jenkins has to remember. Best to keep it simple.
Still, we see more lefty QB’s than we do lefty 3B’s, SS’s, 2B’s, and catchers. This longstanding tradition that lefty’s are not fit to play those other infield positions is one of the stupider ones clung to by baseball people.
How is lefthanded middle infielder going to turn a double-play?Replies: @Mike Tre
OT Must-hear interview regarding Floridian recovery after Ian: Schlichter talks to DeSantis. Absolutely presidential.
https://hughhewitt.com/florida-governor-ron-desantis-on-managing-the-recovery-after-ian/
Somewhere in the organizational brain stem it is known that wide receivers and running backs aren't going to be lighting up any cities with their mind power. NFL offenses are pretty complicated - throwing a lefty into the equation basically doubles the number of plays DeyShawntey Jenkins has to remember. Best to keep it simple.
Still, we see more lefty QB's than we do lefty 3B's, SS's, 2B's, and catchers. This longstanding tradition that lefty's are not fit to play those other infield positions is one of the stupider ones clung to by baseball people.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ex-banker, @Truth, @prime noticer
Nobody is sure why there hasn’t been a lefthanded catcher since the 1980s.
It would be interesting to see whether Rawlings and the rest keep sale records for catcher's mitts for left-throwing catchers though, and what the ratio is.Replies: @Steve Sailer
assuming that the pick off play is by far the most important throw he makes, this would put a lot of weight on that over the other in field defensive plays.
kinda surprised you don't have numbers on this since you're a Bill James baseball analytics guy. not saying i know the numbers for sure, but i would guess this is how they shake out. like hitting homers is what mainly matters for batters, not hitting for average. or hitting 3s is what matters in hoops, versus high percentage mid range jumpers, which are now mostly gone from basketball.Replies: @Steve Sailer
Major league hitters need to be athletic.
In any given state, there are about 20 high school baseball players with MLB potential.Of those 20, two or three are lefties. Why would a lefty choose to be a catcher when he can play an easier position, particularly since lefties are not smarter than righties?
That's all there is to it. Do the math, you will see I am right.
(if that seemed obtuse, analogize what I said to the issue of why there are dozens of 6 foot five white starting pitchers who could have made the NBA and not a single one of them cared enough to try).
And at the end of that time, you’ll have a really kick ass vocabulary. How do you distinguish preparation from getting a good education (one that our schools are not providing)?
The British Army used to talk about the 7Ps: Proper Planning and Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance. It’s gone out of style, but it works.
Generally speaking, the Asian attitude toward education is that if you don’t get something the first time, that doesn’t mean you are dumb, it means that you didn’t study hard enough and you should study some more until you do.
We must add to this other character and personality traits, also liable to be hereditary in character, of which east Asians surpass Europeans in positive scores, eg, conscientious, application, discipline, focus, obedience, conformity etc. As an aside, one theory is that positive selection for these traits is correlated with historic high population densities in east Asia, Malthusian selection pressures and the reality of ever present death through starvation.
As for the apparent discordance between east Asian SAT scores and graduate program test scores as compared to Europeans, I cannot venture an answer. I can only conjecture that the self selected cohorts taking these tests cannot be compared to the SAT pool in terms of motivation and IQ.Replies: @Prester John, @anon
Wouldn’t it be more appropriate to compare Chinese, Koreans and Japanese to, say, Italians, Germans, French, Swedes, Irish etc.? “Europeans” seems to cover too much ground, no?
Relatively speaking, there are quite a few left handed catchers in D1 women’s softball.
Good point. Would the fact that since most hitters tend to be righties and might inhibit a left-handed catcher from throwing out a runner trying to steal second (or even third) have something to do with it? Otherwise, no clue.
We once met Benny Distefano - the last lefty catcher to play in the majors - and he said that there was no logical reason why one would be better than the other. Right-handed catchers just became conventional wisdom and baseball being baseball, that was it. Nothing more than inertia.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Prester John
Konnor, I think you’re missing the key point. Asians are pulling away. I.e. there is change. That is the point. (In contrast, the white-black thing has not changed. The 1SD gap in … everything–except sports and crime–is like some sort of fundamental sociological constant. There is basically zero doubt about its cause at this point–genetics.)
But the Asian-white gap change suggests:
— Asians are getting smarter relative to whites. (Asians getting smarter and/or whites getting dumber.)
— Asians are getting relatively better at taking the tests.
(For the record–I think it is both. Asians better at gaming the tests, and smarter Asians–relatvely more Asians being children of selected came-via-US-college/grad-school immigrants, especially high caste Asian Indians.)
And for the record, no one–no one thinking logically–has ever thought the SAT isn’t “gameable”. On pretty much all tests, practice improves performance. On physical stuff there might be an immediate pretty hard limit. But we generally don’t test mental performance as directly–say reaction times or evoked potentials. We have people do some mental tasks. And the whole “learning” thing: if you know what those tasks are and practice them … you get better!
The College Board liked to claim back in the day that you couldn’t do much. But the general consensus was about 50 points (at the midrange) is just laying there if you just do thorough prep. But lots of Asians go well beyond thorough prep to making the test itself sort of actual subject of study, and “game” if you will where you get down all the hacks to get to the next level, and the next level. Becoming SAT “masters”.
At the upper end the test takers were college bound and college "prepped" anyway, so the prep courses were a given for all test takers and would net out at that level. But once you shift from a test of pure general intelligence to a universe of subject matter that can be studied and mastered, preparatory courses now have an outsized effect in taking mediocre students and giving them an immense bonus.
That teacher was my father. I was glad when he died.Replies: @dux.ie
If I recall correctly, two standard deviations was the black applicant premium for Harvard and it was about 250 SAT Points. Are people paying millions of dollars in order to pretend to be black when applying to selective colleges? Pretending to be black of “BIPOC” seems to be more of a cottage industry for obsessives than a general strategy to hack admissions.
You’re right and you’re wrong – you probably could never realize a 25 point increase on a proper IQ test. But as others have stated if you have a fixed curricula and standard forms of questions, hundreds of hours of grinding preparation beginning at a younger age could very likely yield a 200+ point bonus on such a standardized test. The test is no longer a test of general intelligence and scholastic aptitude, but rather a test of endurance and diligence in preparing for the defined universe of matters which could be tested in the particular way in which they’re tested. It’s now a question of kids foregoing baseball and friends and reading for pleasure in favor of structured preparation. It’s a fine way of creating a managerial overclass of soulless humanoid insects to mash buttons for twelve hour days.
I think colleges and Universities have a point with regard to high scoring Asians – they’re not looking for candidates who have hit the ceilings of their academic potential by way of hundreds of hours of rote memorization. They traditionally sought out (or purported to) candidates with high native intelligence who would benefit from the teaching by the leaders of their academic disciplines. It’s just that their commitment to remaking America by boosting blacks and Hispanics reveals an irresolvable conflict – return the SAT to a general intelligence test to defend themselves against claims from Asians and whites (at least, whites without an “in”) would be the prime beneficiaries while the premiums given to blacks would be even more ridiculous. It’s whack-a-mole – hit the Asians and the blacks disappear too while many more of the hated whites pop up.
First, we now know all of the fundamental physical laws that govern the everyday physical world: from chemical bonding to solid-state physics to stellar structure. We have plucked the (relatively) low-hanging fruit.
Second, the huge influx of money from 1945 through 1980 let us go for broke without worrying about developing experimental technology along a path that could be sustained long term. I remember around 1980 attending a summer school at SLAC that featured discussions of what to do when just building larger and larger particle accelerators would become obviously impossible. Interesting discussions, nothing much came of them.
Perhaps most important, it is really tough to get tenure by pursuing the deep issues that still plague fundamental physics -- notably the foundational problems of quantum mechanics. This year's Nobel prize is really important because it awards people who did just that -- notably Clauser and Aspect -- but they were taking a real risk with their careers.
I'm actually working on some of those issues, but I am not part of the academic mainstream, competing for tenure and grants. Similarly with my friend Sabine Hossenfelder.
In another thread, someone suggested that sometimes fields of endeavor simply require a period of going fallow.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bardon Kaldian, @Sam Malone, @Prester John
Why did the funding boom end around 1980, rather than say around 1990 with the end of the Cold War?
Also, how skeptical are you of the high-concept superstring theories that have proliferated since the 1980s and which have (and maybe can have) no experimental validation?
My sense is that scientists are fairly honest with themselves and the public about the stasis physics is in now, and the failure of the Large Hadron Collider experiments to do more than merely confirm we’re on the right path and instead open up radical new directions of inquiry (which is my understanding of those results). It seems like they really don’t know how or when things will ever get moving again with groundbreaking experimental proofs that develop our knowledge in the revolutionary ways experienced during the 19th and 20th centuries. Would you say that impression is correct?
There were two things going on back around 1980, though.
First, prior to 1980, accelerators were just a lot cheaper: the SPEAR machine at SLAC, for example, which discovered the charm quark, was built by using money out of the operating budget (I spent a summer working on a prototype for part of a detector for the successor to SPEAR, the so-called PEP project, so I remember people talking about all this). To make new discoveries required much higher energies, which, given the way particle accelerators work, meant much bigger, and much more expensive, accelerators.
Second, my own teachers' generation sort of fell into the field: you went to college, you were good at physics, and there happened to be this cool stuff to do. The field was new and expanding rapidly, so if you were bright and hard-working, you could get into it.
By my generation, lots of bright students knew about the subject, and lots of us were trained as grad students to work in the field -- more of us, in fact, than there were openings in the field. It became a bit of a Ponzi scheme: the profs needed lots of grad students to do the grunt work to advance the profs' careers, but the number of jobs in the field just could not keep doubling indefinitely to provide permanent positions to all those grad students.
So, I may have painted a slightly misleading picture if I seemed to imply that they drastically cut our funding around 1980. The problem, rather, is that the field was structured around the assumption of ever-expanding funding -- both in terms of the cost of accelerator technology as well as an ever-growing supply of young physicists -- and that was just not possible.
Sam also asked: They are mathematically very interesting and very appealing aesthetically. I've played around with them a bit myself, though I am certainly no expert.
The big problem, as you imply, is no one has the foggiest idea how to connect them to experiment. That, of course, is catastrophic. My own feeling is that there are some real conceptual issues with string theory that bear investigation but that too much work has tried to make, thus far completely futile, connections to reality. I don't think we really understand what these theories are yet.
Peter Woit's "Not Even Wrong" blog and Sabine Hossenfelder's "Backreaction" blog have discussions going back some years on why there are problems.
Sam also asked: Yeah, basically. Some scientists are of course more honest than others. It is hard for some theorists who have devoted their whole adult lives to superstring theory to admit to its deep problems.
It is a lot easier for experimentalists to see the problems... since of course they are exasperated that there is no way to confront the theory with experiment.
My guess is that the way that left-throwing, right-catching catchers would frame the zone, even as a mirror image of a left-catching catcher, would be confusing or unsettling for pitchers used to left-catching catchers. It’s probably also the case as it was when I was a kid that the catcher’s mitt was a league issued article of equipment – each team got one, and it was always for a right-throwing player. So if you threw left and wanted to be a catcher, your family would have had to take the financial risk of buying you a catcher’s mitt and hoping that you wound up behind the plate instead of in right field. Lefties therefore had a “structural” disadvantage when it came to playing catcher – no mitt, and therefore they wound up somewhere else in the field from day one.
It would be interesting to see whether Rawlings and the rest keep sale records for catcher’s mitts for left-throwing catchers though, and what the ratio is.
OT – Y’all goyim need Rabbi Yoran Reuven because he vindicates something Paul advised regarding Christian clergy. Whosoever can explain this will be rewarded.
Somewhere in the organizational brain stem it is known that wide receivers and running backs aren't going to be lighting up any cities with their mind power. NFL offenses are pretty complicated - throwing a lefty into the equation basically doubles the number of plays DeyShawntey Jenkins has to remember. Best to keep it simple.
Still, we see more lefty QB's than we do lefty 3B's, SS's, 2B's, and catchers. This longstanding tradition that lefty's are not fit to play those other infield positions is one of the stupider ones clung to by baseball people.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ex-banker, @Truth, @prime noticer
I hardly think it’s stupid to think having to turn one’s body to make a throw would make an enormous difference in throwing out runners at first base.
If the twisting the body stuff is to be believed, then a lefty at second would be preferred in getting faster 4-6-3 double plays turned, and getting faster throws to 2nd and 3rd. Outs at 2nd and 3rd are more critical than outs at first due to the nature of them being in scoring position.
If this stuff was applied with any real consistency it might be more believable.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Reg Cæsar, @ex-banker
It would be interesting to see whether Rawlings and the rest keep sale records for catcher's mitts for left-throwing catchers though, and what the ratio is.Replies: @Steve Sailer
So if you are a 12 year old whose affluent dad buys you a left-handed catcher’s mitt, it’s probably because you are already a slow runner, while big league catchers were probably playing shortstop or centerfield at age 12 when not pitching?
Also, the better bang-for-buck with such a kid would be a $500 Louisville Slugger - every player wields a bat, while only one needs a catcher's mitt. A kid who can mash will get stuck somewhere on the field regardless of defensive ability, while catching is a more defined skill set and not really a glamorous position.
A surmise is that big league catchers got there because of hitting first, and the pitchers who have rarely seen throws left catchers dictate that the catcher be throws right.
But lefty catchers would have an advantage at throwing to first on pickoffs, swinging bunts, and swinging third strikes.
I’m not saying that a left-handed catcher wouldn’t be at a slight disadvantage, but catchers usually aren’t that good at playing other positions due to a lack of speed, but are highly valuable.
Bill James figures slow, strong-armed lefties get drafted into pitching. Perhaps, but what if they can really hit?
Israel is in Asia.
Thanks.
But what about similes? Are they sneeringly considered less nuanced second-class linguistic citizens?
"SAT optional" is not optional if you're white or Asian without some truly amazing sob story (even if you're a recruited athlete). The various college ratings entities require that that least X% (usually 80%) of all students submit standardized tests if they are to be included in rankings. So schools are very careful to get the bottom 19.9% of SAT scorers that they want to admit (ie, most blacks and some other NAMs) to avoid submitting standardized tests. If you're anybody else, you're not getting in without them. The only places where they don't matter is where they will not accept them from any applicants --the UC system being the prime example.
Nationally competitive private high schools that send a large fraction of their graduates to top 10 colleges (my kids are in one) care a huge amount about SATs / ACTs, typically organizing material in-school support and counting on the fact that more or less every student is doing private coaching. They just understand the zeitgeist well enough to not trumpet this.Replies: @stillCARealist
Interesting.
When I asked the HS kids in our youth orchestra (white/Asian middle class) about taking the SAT, they all said they weren’t. Is that just CA? They all plan to go to college somewhere, and honestly, these kids are pretty accomplished and bright.
And yet more are mixing with White women than ever. See if you can figure out why, Einstein.
You're a fucking idiot for making this comment.Replies: @Anonymous, @Reg Cæsar
It’s possible that we are at the verge of a new Dark Age.
But the Asian-white gap change suggests:
-- Asians are getting smarter relative to whites. (Asians getting smarter and/or whites getting dumber.)
-- Asians are getting relatively better at taking the tests.
(For the record--I think it is both. Asians better at gaming the tests, and smarter Asians--relatvely more Asians being children of selected came-via-US-college/grad-school immigrants, especially high caste Asian Indians.)
And for the record, no one--no one thinking logically--has ever thought the SAT isn't "gameable". On pretty much all tests, practice improves performance. On physical stuff there might be an immediate pretty hard limit. But we generally don't test mental performance as directly--say reaction times or evoked potentials. We have people do some mental tasks. And the whole "learning" thing: if you know what those tasks are and practice them ... you get better!
The College Board liked to claim back in the day that you couldn't do much. But the general consensus was about 50 points (at the midrange) is just laying there if you just do thorough prep. But lots of Asians go well beyond thorough prep to making the test itself sort of actual subject of study, and "game" if you will where you get down all the hacks to get to the next level, and the next level. Becoming SAT "masters".Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @dux.ie, @Dvnjbbgc
The gain in points from prep on a pure IQ test would probably be a modest 20-50 points. Getting used to the forms of questions and pacing the test via practice is the main benefit of prep on such a test. But that’s probably a hard limit, and the “benefit” is likely largest in the mid range in terms of bringing someone up to a 1000 or 1050. That was the rather frank discussion given by the prep courses back in the early 1990s – they’re not going to take your mediocre student from a 920 to a 1300+ and dreams of the Ivy Leagues, but they’re going to make your mediocre student acceptable to Penn State Main Campus, or help the recruiting college coach get junior past admissions.
At the upper end the test takers were college bound and college “prepped” anyway, so the prep courses were a given for all test takers and would net out at that level. But once you shift from a test of pure general intelligence to a universe of subject matter that can be studied and mastered, preparatory courses now have an outsized effect in taking mediocre students and giving them an immense bonus.
But it didn’t affect the higher castes till the technology revolution arrived. No longer were good careers limited to the family businesses and clan networks. But tech careers depended on university tech education. And the higher castes were severely discriminated against in India.
But in America Indians managed to switch their race from Caucasian to non Caucasian. And the bonanza of affirmative action opened up for them.
I’ve always suspected the big tech companies had a lot to do with the EEOC and the feds switching Indians from Caucasian to non Caucasian affirmative action beneficiaries.
Every industry in America is under the gun to discriminate against White American men. Every industry in America rejoiced when affirmative action became the law of the land. Got rid of all those pesky White man labor unions the 40 hour work week and paid overtime laws made by White men labor union members.
And opened the flood of Hispanics for low skill jobs and Indians and Asians for medical and tech jobs.
That’s why the high caste Indians leave India. To get the education and jobs they can’t get in India because of caste discrimination. White men are the best in medicine and STEM. But between the government and the capitalist pigs they can’t be hired because they are White American men.Replies: @Paleo Liberal, @epebble
A non-Brahmin friend of mine says he sees more anti-lower caste discrimination by Brahmins in the US than he did in India. What you said may or may not be part of the reason.
https://hughhewitt.com/florida-governor-ron-desantis-on-managing-the-recovery-after-ian/Replies: @Anon
Who cares about “presidential”? Will he put a stop to immigration? That’s all that matters.
I think what you’re looking for at Babe Ruth/Little League level first and foremost in a catcher is a player who can limit passed balls which can get out of hand at that level quickly. You probably try out the players who should be power hitters too – hence the stereotype of the husky lad behind the plate. My nephew was the catcher on his club and high school baseball teams and we got him a custom Nokona catcher’s mitt for Christmas a few years ago. But he was a good athlete generally, played tight end and center/power forward on his high school football and basketball teams too respectively, and now plays college football at the tight end position. The mitt only came when he had secured the position.
Also, the better bang-for-buck with such a kid would be a $500 Louisville Slugger – every player wields a bat, while only one needs a catcher’s mitt. A kid who can mash will get stuck somewhere on the field regardless of defensive ability, while catching is a more defined skill set and not really a glamorous position.
A surmise is that big league catchers got there because of hitting first, and the pitchers who have rarely seen throws left catchers dictate that the catcher be throws right.
The contrast between the SAT and MCAT result can’t be explained because of Asian selection bias because Asian families really do push their kids to become doctors. One thing I’ve noticed is that on TikTok there seems to be a lot of smart, rural, White doctors. I guess the algorithm has figured out I enjoy watching videos on medical advice. I wouldn’t be surprised if smart, rural, White kids are more likely to go into medicine rather than law because of law’s general snobbiness and having to move to a big city to practice BigLaw. I don’t think the effect is big enough to explain most of the MCAT vs SAT discrepancy, but maybe these neglected brains, as Steve has rightly pointed out, are providing a slight White selection bias on the White MCAT scores relatively.
Other than medicine, Asians these days are focused on engineering and finance. These fields require spatial and quantitative abilities that are better suited for their attitudes. They also pay extremely well. Law and medicine don’t pay as well as they used to. Even if they do pay well, it’s a lot of hard work, and you’re probably making less per hour than you could have in Tech or finance. Asians also go into these fields because they don’t require a graduate degree. Many Asian families discourage their daughters from going to graduate school, even medical school, because they will be too old to have a good marriage after a Masters + PhD or medical school + residency.Replies: @BRK2, @Steve Sailer, @Twinkie, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar
…Or Engineer if their son is sort of a natural-born weirdo.
Chinese also, it least on the west coast, seemed to be a hellofalot more sophisticated about scamming the government, and would rather just get double back from an insurance company.
Somewhere in the organizational brain stem it is known that wide receivers and running backs aren't going to be lighting up any cities with their mind power. NFL offenses are pretty complicated - throwing a lefty into the equation basically doubles the number of plays DeyShawntey Jenkins has to remember. Best to keep it simple.
Still, we see more lefty QB's than we do lefty 3B's, SS's, 2B's, and catchers. This longstanding tradition that lefty's are not fit to play those other infield positions is one of the stupider ones clung to by baseball people.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ex-banker, @Truth, @prime noticer
Is this a joke?
How is lefthanded middle infielder going to turn a double-play?
On the celibate priesthood, it's a mixed bag. Some quality genes were wasted ... on the other hand *not* letting a separate priestly caste develop was an enormously good thing. Feudalism/caste systems suck.
Since the priests were generally just spare sons of the nobility and gentry, European society really only had two "castes"--the nobility and commoners. And the nobility was continually sucking up the attractive and/or rich girls from the upper gentry.
So European nations really are quite one-peoplish which is a very good thing. Much, much, much, much, much better than the caste division you see in India--real endogamy--or the similar sort thing between Jews and gentiles in Europe.
The best program is no caste/tribal division and continual downward mobility. You have one people, less contention and genes from the most successful are continual flowing down through the population and the idiots, unhealthy, flakes, layabouts continually dying off. This is what enabled European peoples to get smart and breakout. (And seems to be the East Asian pattern as well.)
Of course, the problem we have now--beyond the obvious immivasion debacle--is that the downward mobility has stopped. Modernity and feminism/female careerism have destroyed the link between good-genes/success and fertility.Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
It’s not just modernity and feminism though, it’s also mass immigration which destroys the link between good genes and fertility.
Say you’ve made it across the Sahara, the Med and the Channel from the Central African state of Crapholunga – or maybe via Turkey and the Balkans from Shitholistan.
A minimum wage job and a council flat in the roughest part of town won’t seem like the best basis for starting a family if you’re a middle class Brit.
But to a young Shitholistana, it’s a relative paradise by comparison with the baked-clay place in the Crud Valley, with a 300 yard walk to the village well – owned by the village headman, who keeps reminding that your family owes him. Water comes out of taps! And it’s clean! You won’t lose three out of five babies! All five will live!
OK, there are African muggers, Roma thieves and Albanian drug dealers in the streets. But you have a tightly-knit expat community that can sort out its own street justice, without troubling the police or local councils except to ask for more money and council flats. And as we know, only racists will complain, and they can be ignored.
https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/crime/page-hall-rioters-fought-poles-and-golf-clubs-during-sheffield-brawl-3084565
My oldest son was a left-handed catcher until he decided to focus on football.
We once met Benny Distefano – the last lefty catcher to play in the majors – and he said that there was no logical reason why one would be better than the other. Right-handed catchers just became conventional wisdom and baseball being baseball, that was it. Nothing more than inertia.
Does anyone recognize these incidents from more adult-oriented biographies? I always suspect we're in cherry-orchard territory with these kids' books.
https://mtv-main-assets.mountvernon.org/files/resources/mcrae-cherry-tree.jpgReplies: @Prester John
You think Koreans are tough? Get to know some Mongolians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chahar-Jurchen_WarKoreans' martial edge later eroded, like the late Imperial Chinese-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_invasions_of_Korea_(1592-1598)#Joseon_KoreaMongols aren't necessarily dim but simply have less scholastic tradition, the only mathematician of late Imperial China of note was a Mongol,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minggatu
I picked a test randomly:
https://images.collegedunia.com/public/college_data/images/entrance/sample_paper/1603855990SAT%20Math%20Level%202.pdf
My guess is more than 90% of working Americans would likely not answer 20 of the 50 questions correctly in 60 minutes. Would you describe the test as simple?Replies: @Anonymous
These are example problems for the subject tests, which are different from the 2400 point three-section test that people commonly refer to as being the SAT proper. Yes, these problems are simple for people who have taken the courses that the test covers (algebra, etc.) and have learned the material. That is what I mean by an achievement test, yet the norms suggest achievement is very low regardless. The broader problem is not that anyone is gaming the test (by simply being forced to study or torturous rote learning), but that many simply do not or cannot even learn what is presented to them for years and years. It is a massive waste of life.
The contrast between the SAT and MCAT result can’t be explained because of Asian selection bias because Asian families really do push their kids to become doctors. One thing I’ve noticed is that on TikTok there seems to be a lot of smart, rural, White doctors. I guess the algorithm has figured out I enjoy watching videos on medical advice. I wouldn’t be surprised if smart, rural, White kids are more likely to go into medicine rather than law because of law’s general snobbiness and having to move to a big city to practice BigLaw. I don’t think the effect is big enough to explain most of the MCAT vs SAT discrepancy, but maybe these neglected brains, as Steve has rightly pointed out, are providing a slight White selection bias on the White MCAT scores relatively.
Other than medicine, Asians these days are focused on engineering and finance. These fields require spatial and quantitative abilities that are better suited for their attitudes. They also pay extremely well. Law and medicine don’t pay as well as they used to. Even if they do pay well, it’s a lot of hard work, and you’re probably making less per hour than you could have in Tech or finance. Asians also go into these fields because they don’t require a graduate degree. Many Asian families discourage their daughters from going to graduate school, even medical school, because they will be too old to have a good marriage after a Masters + PhD or medical school + residency.Replies: @BRK2, @Steve Sailer, @Twinkie, @Truth, @Reg Cæsar
This is similar to the rather relaxed Danes, jammed in between the stuffy Germans and Swedes. The Danes are as hard-working and competent as their neighbors, but realize you don’t have to be a jerk about it.
The Dutch and Flemings are in a similar position. These three groups’ traditions are Lutheran, Calvinist, and Catholic, respectively, so the difference isn’t rooted in (now-moribund) religion.
Perhaps flat land? Magic dirt!
Lots of foreigners are taking the GRE without enough English skills and doing poorly on it. They are all Asians since having a graduate degree is a fierce status marker for them. So I'd be careful about "which" Asians are skewing the GRE scores. Are they American-born or recent imports?
As to the SAT, those are heavily prepped, American-born Asians who are still trying to please their parents at 17 years old.Replies: @Unintended Consequence
“To succeed at the English portion of the GRE you have to be a native speaker, as well as have studied plenty of grammar and reading comprehension.”
The GRE used to be fairly similar to the SAT. The math on both is essentially highschool math. I honestly don’t know what you mean about the grammar or even vocabulary on the GRE; English has a grammar as do all languages and the low-frequency words are mostly the same low-frequency words on both exams. Besides, don’t plenty of foreign students take the SAT to go to US undergrad institutions?
Though I’m a little rusty on the vocabulary of statistics, I think “distribution” is the keyword here. Asian IQs are more heavily clustered around the average while whites have more IQs at the low and high extremes. Not only are the low-IQ types not taking graduate admissions tests, but many with more average IQs don’t take such exams either. In essence, the Asian higher average IQ of 105 confers no advantage when competing against the higher IQ white population especially when the exam is linguisto-logical rather than mathematical. Also, as Sailer has mentioned previously, it’s not in the realm of probability or possibility that Asians are rapidly gaining IQ points over the last few decades. Something else accounts for the increasingly better performance, like test prep.
I had a similar feeling while reading practice questions for the LSAT. You could know lots of stuff, or be really smart, and still fail. You have to know a lot, and be very clever and discerning at the same time.
When my relative was an engineering professor years ago, he said the white graduates all went and got jobs after college. The Asians all went to grad school because that was more prestigious for their families. And it was hard to get the students from either camp to go the other direction. I wasn't clear if he meant ABC's or Asian immigrants.Replies: @Jack D
My hunch is that generic Americans from the 1950's would crush modern Asian-Americans. A full nature >> nurture outlook might suggest the loss of ability in a person is reversible, but not after 14 years of anti-rational training in an Affirmative Action-biased system.
The list of terrible factors is long: street drugs, prescription psychoactive drugs, 24/7 mindless TV and other mass-media, AA and M/F aspects in the classroom, increasing level of childhood distractions such as more sports, more basket weaving, emphasis on activities which do not improve thinking abilities. Poor diet, poor sleep, etc. The significance of these can be debated but the total impact seems large. Some of these factors may actually reduce our intrinsic capabilities, so we have fewer brains to work with.
We once met Benny Distefano - the last lefty catcher to play in the majors - and he said that there was no logical reason why one would be better than the other. Right-handed catchers just became conventional wisdom and baseball being baseball, that was it. Nothing more than inertia.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Prester John
In youth-oriented biographies, I’ve read that catcher was the first position for both Babe Ruth and Sandy Koufax on the playground. One dealt with the wrong glove, the other tore it apart to turn it inside out. Some of these bios aimed at kids can be fictionalized in parts, especially in opening chapters– one described Knute Rockne and his big sister swimming across a fjord back in Norway. At age four.
Does anyone recognize these incidents from more adult-oriented biographies? I always suspect we’re in cherry-orchard territory with these kids’ books.
I suspect you're right. Ahh, good ol' Parson Weems. Hagiography is hardly limited to adult fare.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Ralph L
That 2B, SS, and 3B are averse to lefty throwers makes sense. Catcher, though …
And who is right? Do small statistical advantages disappear at the right tail of the curve (Mike Tre), or do they magnify (me)? While we wait for others to chime in, I'll listen to Mozart, Mike to Mrs Beach.Replies: @Truth
white students make up about 62 percent of the degree-seeking University of Minnesota student body currently
I thought the state was 90+% white, but Wikipedia says 83% in 2020 (98 in 1970). Are they paying black and hispanic kids from other states to go up there and freeze their asses off, or are the white kids leaving or going private–or just not in existence?
Yes. SAT and HS grades are a good predictor of success in college. But, that’s not how they are touted. They are touted as achievement tests. No studies that I know of have ever correlated SAT scores, HS grades, and post academic achievement. The first thing we need to do before we test for it is to determine what achievement is.
I think colleges and Universities have a point with regard to high scoring Asians - they're not looking for candidates who have hit the ceilings of their academic potential by way of hundreds of hours of rote memorization. They traditionally sought out (or purported to) candidates with high native intelligence who would benefit from the teaching by the leaders of their academic disciplines. It's just that their commitment to remaking America by boosting blacks and Hispanics reveals an irresolvable conflict - return the SAT to a general intelligence test to defend themselves against claims from Asians and whites (at least, whites without an "in") would be the prime beneficiaries while the premiums given to blacks would be even more ridiculous. It's whack-a-mole - hit the Asians and the blacks disappear too while many more of the hated whites pop up.Replies: @Jack D, @Jack D
You do not recall correctly. First of all, the SAT is designed so that 1 SD = exactly 100 points on each section, so 2 SDs is 200 points on each of V and M or 400 pts on the 1600 pt scale.
2nd the gap at Harvard is nothing like that. Harvard gets to pick from the creme de la creme of American blacks and the gap is only 1/2 SD vs whites and 2/3 SD vs. Asians. For each freshman class , they get to pick the best 250 or 300 blacks out of maybe 500,000 graduating black HS seniors. Nationally, the black gap is consistently across almost all academic measures 1 SD not 2.
(Asian-Americans admitted to Harvard earned an average SAT score of 767 across all sections.)
https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2018/10/22/asian-american-admit-sat-scores/#:~:text=Every%20section%20of%20the%20SAT,admits%20an%20average%20of%20704.
1. Blacks scoring about 1 SD less on average than whites.
2. Asians scoring better on average than whites.
3. Harvard discriminating against Asians.
Here is a 2018 article with numbers based on recruitment letters.
https://nypost.com/2018/10/17/harvards-gatekeeper-reveals-sat-cutoff-scores-based-on-race/ I think it is easier to see the true gaps with recruitment (low end of the scale) rather than admissions averages which are more affected by the relatively low SAT ceiling.
Back to you. How do you figure that? Harvard also gets to pick from the creme de la creme of American whites and Asians. Given that Harvard admits blacks around population proportion and whites at less than population proportion I would expect the W-B gap to be a bit higher than in the population.
Ah. Looking around I think I see where you got that. Figures like the one at this link.
https://www.thecrimson.com/widget/2018/10/21/sat-by-race-graphic/
Note no specification whether those scores are math, verbal, or half of combined. Imprecision like that is a tell that something is wrong. Often someone trying to mislead.
See ceiling comment above. I think it is more instructive to look at the distribution of admits by race and SAT score. Those are available in
Trial Exhibit P044. 2018. In Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of
Harvard College et al. Civil Action No. 14-14176-ADB (D. Mass). URL
https://github.
com/tyleransom/SFFAvHarvard-Docs/blob/master/TrialExhibits/P044.pdf
I planned to focus on their plots of SAT scores for admitted students in the class of 2016. Verbal on page 3, Math on page 5. Problem is, the admits plots are wrong (nice job, Harvard!). Notice that the plots for admits and applicants are the same. And appear to represent applicants. Actually that does not seem to be true either. Note that for verbal the plot indicates that for Asian applicants 75-80 2460/6299 = about 58%. Not sure what is going on with those plots so looking at the tables.
I'll estimate the gaps based on the medians for the tables on pages 3 and 5.
Test__ | Asian | Black| White
Verbal | 770 | 720 | 760
Math_ | 780 | 720 | 760
Turns out those scores actually align fairly well with the Crimson link for both math and verbal. Interesting. What are good explanations for the relatively small gaps for admits given my points above? Is Harvard selecting less aggressively for high SATs among whites and Asians than among blacks? Seems odd, but might make sense if they are thinking of a cognitive ability threshold and selecting more for other things above that.
FWIW, the real gap to look at is the difference between otherwise equivalent (merit) applicants. I think there were some regression models in the lawsuit which looked at that, but I have already spent too much time on this comment. (I wrote this paragraph after doing the MORE)
While writing this I realized it is possible to do some interesting analysis of what proportion of nationwide black high scorers were admitted to the Harvard class of 2010.
Analyzing what proportion of nationwide black high scorers applied and were admitted to the Harvard class of 2010 uses the admissions data for the Harvard class of 2010 above and this JBHE article with 2005 SAT score information.
https://www.jbhe.com/features/49_college_admissions-test.html
I assume the Harvard class of 2010 graduated HS in 2006 and took the SAT in 2005. 2010 Verbal | 70-74 | 75-80 | Total
Applied | 191 | 120 | 311
Admitted | 66 | 58 | 124
JBHE | 842 | 363 | 1205
2010 Math| 70-74 | 75-80 | Total
Applied | 198 | 76 | 274
Admitted | 64 | 34 | 98
JBHE | 888 | 244 | 1132
So of the 750 and above black scorers we have:
Verbal - a third applied to Harvard and just over a sixth were admitted.
Math - a bit less than a third applied to Harvard and just under a seventh were admitted
For contrast above 750 verbal:
2,535 whites applied with 509 admitted. Out of about 18,200 in the US.
So for the 750+ verbal applicant pool Harvard admitted just over a sixth of blacks in the country but only 2.8% of whites. Hopefully that makes clear how big an issue mismatch at the lower levels is.
More on the class of 2010.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2006/03/the-class-of-2010-is-the-most-diverse-in-harvard-history
P.S. If anyone sees any math errors, please point out. I would appreciate a double check.Replies: @Jack D, @Jack D, @Rob
How is lefthanded middle infielder going to turn a double-play?Replies: @Mike Tre
From the second base position, much easier than a right hander, if the nonsense about twisting the body is to be believed.
We once met Benny Distefano - the last lefty catcher to play in the majors - and he said that there was no logical reason why one would be better than the other. Right-handed catchers just became conventional wisdom and baseball being baseball, that was it. Nothing more than inertia.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Prester John
Interesting. There were only a few lefty catchers. The one that stood out in my mind when I was a kid was Dale Long. And I had forgotten that Mike Squires of the White Sox was also a lefty.
As is part of Turkey, Russia and all of the ex-Soviet Stans etc,
Is there a shred of data to support this “twisting the body” detriment? It seems the athletic ability required to even be considered to play in an MLB infield would nullify the immeasurable time spent twisting the torso.
If the twisting the body stuff is to be believed, then a lefty at second would be preferred in getting faster 4-6-3 double plays turned, and getting faster throws to 2nd and 3rd. Outs at 2nd and 3rd are more critical than outs at first due to the nature of them being in scoring position.
If this stuff was applied with any real consistency it might be more believable.
This really shows up with the relatively minor advantages for the right arm (7- or 8-4) and the lefty batter's box. TR-BLs are dishwater-common, including at the very top-- Cobb, Williams, Berra, Morgan. Fewer than 60 TL-BRs (leaving out pitchers) have played in the big leagues at all since the late 19th century, the most recognizable being Rickey Henderson and Cleon Jones.
Men aren't that much better at music than women, in the middle of the curve (and women may on average be better on the performing side). But look how much more male-dominant each genre's list of composers gets as you move from rap to country and rock to jazz and classical. Those small advantages, being factors, don't add up. They multiply way up.Replies: @Mike Tre
Have you ever noticed that teams bunt less frequently against lefthanded pitchers when the lead runner is on second? Same principle.Replies: @Mike Tre
Does anyone recognize these incidents from more adult-oriented biographies? I always suspect we're in cherry-orchard territory with these kids' books.
https://mtv-main-assets.mountvernon.org/files/resources/mcrae-cherry-tree.jpgReplies: @Prester John
“I always suspect we’re in cherry-orchard territory with these kids’ books.”
I suspect you’re right. Ahh, good ol’ Parson Weems. Hagiography is hardly limited to adult fare.
https://www.hmdb.org/Photos/83/Photo83568.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weems%E2%80%93Botts_MuseumWe saw the sign on I-95 and stopped by soon after it opened in the 70s, but it was closed for the day. Biggest disappointment of my young life.
I think colleges and Universities have a point with regard to high scoring Asians - they're not looking for candidates who have hit the ceilings of their academic potential by way of hundreds of hours of rote memorization. They traditionally sought out (or purported to) candidates with high native intelligence who would benefit from the teaching by the leaders of their academic disciplines. It's just that their commitment to remaking America by boosting blacks and Hispanics reveals an irresolvable conflict - return the SAT to a general intelligence test to defend themselves against claims from Asians and whites (at least, whites without an "in") would be the prime beneficiaries while the premiums given to blacks would be even more ridiculous. It's whack-a-mole - hit the Asians and the blacks disappear too while many more of the hated whites pop up.Replies: @Jack D, @Jack D
I agree with this part. This is why some of the comments above are incoherent because people assume that everything is always being done to screw white people. It can’t possibly be that making the test MORE g loaded screws whites and making the test LESS g loaded also screws whites. It has to be one or the other.
First, we now know all of the fundamental physical laws that govern the everyday physical world: from chemical bonding to solid-state physics to stellar structure. We have plucked the (relatively) low-hanging fruit.
Second, the huge influx of money from 1945 through 1980 let us go for broke without worrying about developing experimental technology along a path that could be sustained long term. I remember around 1980 attending a summer school at SLAC that featured discussions of what to do when just building larger and larger particle accelerators would become obviously impossible. Interesting discussions, nothing much came of them.
Perhaps most important, it is really tough to get tenure by pursuing the deep issues that still plague fundamental physics -- notably the foundational problems of quantum mechanics. This year's Nobel prize is really important because it awards people who did just that -- notably Clauser and Aspect -- but they were taking a real risk with their careers.
I'm actually working on some of those issues, but I am not part of the academic mainstream, competing for tenure and grants. Similarly with my friend Sabine Hossenfelder.
In another thread, someone suggested that sometimes fields of endeavor simply require a period of going fallow.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bardon Kaldian, @Sam Malone, @Prester John
Makes sense. In the interim and in terms of new discoveries, the biological sciences (including biochem, genetics etc) appear to be where the action is these days.
Consciousness: we all have it, we all know what it is, and no one knows how to make sense of it scientifically. And at a practical level, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, etc. really matter.
As to whether that is a good way to make a living... well, I'm not the only person who knows that this is an exciting field: a few years ago, my brother-in-law, who is an architect, and I were talking with our kids, and the physicist and the architect agreed that neuroscience is where it's at.
So, the competition for jobs may be pretty fierce. And, for anyone who is not a trust-fund baby, job prospects do matter.
Of course, an MD in neurology or brain surgery might be one feasible route.
By ‘European’ I mean white Americans, ie, those Americans whose ancestry can be traced to the continent of European.
I am just sick of people trying to deconstruct the term ‘white’ so I choose a term that I hope the even the professional liars of the left will find to be non fungible.
But it didn’t affect the higher castes till the technology revolution arrived. No longer were good careers limited to the family businesses and clan networks. But tech careers depended on university tech education. And the higher castes were severely discriminated against in India.
But in America Indians managed to switch their race from Caucasian to non Caucasian. And the bonanza of affirmative action opened up for them.
I’ve always suspected the big tech companies had a lot to do with the EEOC and the feds switching Indians from Caucasian to non Caucasian affirmative action beneficiaries.
Every industry in America is under the gun to discriminate against White American men. Every industry in America rejoiced when affirmative action became the law of the land. Got rid of all those pesky White man labor unions the 40 hour work week and paid overtime laws made by White men labor union members.
And opened the flood of Hispanics for low skill jobs and Indians and Asians for medical and tech jobs.
That’s why the high caste Indians leave India. To get the education and jobs they can’t get in India because of caste discrimination. White men are the best in medicine and STEM. But between the government and the capitalist pigs they can’t be hired because they are White American men.Replies: @Paleo Liberal, @epebble
I’ve always suspected the big tech companies had a lot to do with the EEOC and the feds switching Indians from Caucasian to non Caucasian affirmative action beneficiaries.
The switching happened in 1923, by U.S. Supreme Court. There were no High-Tech companies or EEOC then. The decision also clubbed Indians with Japanese, Chinese etc., to create the “Asians” (the term then was Asiatics). Probably the first attempt to label a majority of humanity.
https://www.nytimes.com/1923/02/20/archives/court-rules-hindu-not-a-white-person-bars-high-caste-native-of.html
If the twisting the body stuff is to be believed, then a lefty at second would be preferred in getting faster 4-6-3 double plays turned, and getting faster throws to 2nd and 3rd. Outs at 2nd and 3rd are more critical than outs at first due to the nature of them being in scoring position.
If this stuff was applied with any real consistency it might be more believable.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Reg Cæsar, @ex-banker
Everybody knows that throwing to your handed-side, e.g., a right-handed first baseman throwing to second, like righty Steve Garvey as opposed to lefty Keith Hernandez, is lamer than throwing across your body.
Somewhere in the organizational brain stem it is known that wide receivers and running backs aren't going to be lighting up any cities with their mind power. NFL offenses are pretty complicated - throwing a lefty into the equation basically doubles the number of plays DeyShawntey Jenkins has to remember. Best to keep it simple.
Still, we see more lefty QB's than we do lefty 3B's, SS's, 2B's, and catchers. This longstanding tradition that lefty's are not fit to play those other infield positions is one of the stupider ones clung to by baseball people.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ex-banker, @Truth, @prime noticer
most of the lineman can move positions somewhat effectively. all the linemen can somewhat play the other positions, and once in a while they have to in the middle of a game with injuries. most tackles aren’t side specific, although a few do play better on one side or the other. but mainly you simply put the better tackle on the left. usually he can play on the right just as well. the center is the guy who you don’t want to swap out mid game. backup centers are typically good for a few bad snaps in a game.
the big problem as you note is that if this quarterback switch happens in the middle of a game, suddenly all the plays move in the opposite direction, so coordinating the offense gets harder. it’s not harder if you practice all year with a lefty starter though. only when there’s a sudden switch. i can’t see a good left handed prospect being downgraded just because of that. a team will take a good left handed starter provided he’s clearly the starter and much better than anybody else they could get. your season is usually over if the starter goes down anyway, so it’s less relevant that all the backups are right handed. so the position trends remain curious.
“Still, we see more lefty QB’s than we do lefty 3B’s, SS’s, 2B’s”
they usually throw toward their left or field throws from the right, so that part makes some sense. probably almost every left handed guy in baseball is a pitcher, first baseman, or outfielder. i haven’t checked all 600 current MLB players, but that’s my prediction.
catcher mainly has to throw to first base or second base. with a left hand throw, it’s a little more complicated. those are throws across the body. especially the throw to second base, his natural throw is to the wrong side. he has to correct about 3 feet to the right to catch the runner coming in. right handed batters (most of them) are also standing slightly in the way of his throwing motion.
assuming that the pick off play is by far the most important throw he makes, this would put a lot of weight on that over the other in field defensive plays.
kinda surprised you don’t have numbers on this since you’re a Bill James baseball analytics guy. not saying i know the numbers for sure, but i would guess this is how they shake out. like hitting homers is what mainly matters for batters, not hitting for average. or hitting 3s is what matters in hoops, versus high percentage mid range jumpers, which are now mostly gone from basketball.
way to think about right hand catcher versus left hand catcher:
if right hand guy is about 25% better at throwing people out at second (a lot of the throws are close, and a few inches is the difference between out and safe), then about 1 in 4 base stealers won’t get into RISP on their base stealing attempt than if they were running against left hand guy. 2022 stranded RISP per game is about 3.3 (but coming down about 1% per year as teams get better at knocking in runners via homers).
over a 162 game season, that would be a lot of extra runs given up by the lefty catcher. he would have to bat really well to break even on runs. so, they’ve probably been eliminated by darwinian mechanisms.
would need to look at 60 years of catcher throwing percentages to verify. 25% better for right handers could be high, but you’d want an equation of throwing accuracy to eliminate the other team’s RISP versus the catcher’s batting average and RBIs. somewhere in the middle of that function, left handed throwers disappear.
I thought the state was 90+% white, but Wikipedia says 83% in 2020 (98 in 1970). Are they paying black and hispanic kids from other states to go up there and freeze their asses off, or are the white kids leaving or going private--or just not in existence?Replies: @Anon
The youth cohorts are increasingly non-White. Whites are being replaced in Minnesota.
Likewise, they may also lag behind in gentrification, as in San Francisco and Washington. DC is steadily whitening-- whites will likely outnumber blacks by the next census. (They may already outnumber native blacks.) SF, though less white than in the past, is significantly more less black. One in six "Baghdadis" was black when OJ grew up there, now it's one in twenty.
Wtf are you talking about? No they are not. Asian men were MORE likely to mix with White women in the 1980s. Today they’re considerably less likely to.
You’re a fucking idiot for making this comment.
Note the escalating rudeness. This is what anonymity (as opposed to pseudonymity) encourages.
This reply hit the 3/hr wall. Locating the previous comment again to repost took a simple and obvious letter-string search-- if you see what I'm getting at!
I suspect you're right. Ahh, good ol' Parson Weems. Hagiography is hardly limited to adult fare.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Ralph L
Don’t forget his “popularizer”:
Whatever label one may attach to these tests, anyone getting 50 of these correct in 60 minutes is an extraordinarily intelligent person. They are most definitely not simple for most people who have taken the courses and have learned the material. And there is no way to game or cheat short of giving the answer key. I would be surprised if having google open on a laptop in front would make much of a difference.
If the twisting the body stuff is to be believed, then a lefty at second would be preferred in getting faster 4-6-3 double plays turned, and getting faster throws to 2nd and 3rd. Outs at 2nd and 3rd are more critical than outs at first due to the nature of them being in scoring position.
If this stuff was applied with any real consistency it might be more believable.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Reg Cæsar, @ex-banker
On the contrary, going up the ladder would magnify the effect. You could get away with it in tavern softball or teeball or even Little League, but not in the majors.
This really shows up with the relatively minor advantages for the right arm (7- or 8-4) and the lefty batter’s box. TR-BLs are dishwater-common, including at the very top– Cobb, Williams, Berra, Morgan. Fewer than 60 TL-BRs (leaving out pitchers) have played in the big leagues at all since the late 19th century, the most recognizable being Rickey Henderson and Cleon Jones.
Men aren’t that much better at music than women, in the middle of the curve (and women may on average be better on the performing side). But look how much more male-dominant each genre’s list of composers gets as you move from rap to country and rock to jazz and classical. Those small advantages, being factors, don’t add up. They multiply way up.
Does he have enough money to avoid subservience to the Tribe. That answers the immigration question.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11323677/Outrage-Boston-University-CREATES-Covid-strain-80-kill-rate.html
At this point, we need to start pulling the funding of scientists who do this. Some Biden government weasel had to give the okay to this project to fund it. "Yeah, go ahead, go create a version of Covid that actually kills almost everybody. Peachy-keen idea!"
Why? Why did they bother? Funding cures for coronaviruses is okay, but anyone trying to make more lethal strains of Covid should be charged with a felony and locked up to protect humanity.
The childishness, irresponsibility, and idiocy of this is off the charts. The Biden administration deliberately funded this, which is why they must be kicked out of office before they do any more damage to the rest of the planet. They're all massive retards.Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Rob
Not clear, but I would guess so and you don’t need three guesses as to who to finger.
Some of the funding “sounds better in the original German” I think, which I’m dead ending for now for two grants. One grant is internal BU for new professors. A couple from the NIH are for general equipment that was added to a central facility for example to stain samples. Another from the NIH National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) (seems it has “27 Institutes and Centers”), translational being “the process of turning observations into interventions to improve health.” It’s a lot of money, and it’s not obvious from reporter.nih.gov how it gets doled out to individual projects after it hits BU.
And of course two grants from Saint Fauci’s NIH Institute, one saying “We will use reverse genetics to generate viruses with inactive [interferon] antagonists….”
Now we need to apply what we’ve learned about Saint Fauci’s attitude towards regulation of gain of function experiments. Long before COVID he was on record as supporting them, explicitly saying the risks were worth the benefits (although I’ve never seen any such benefits, haven’t looked hard though and the community is of course not now trumpeting what they do).
But for those not familiar with the history, two labs, Dutch and US did avian flu with ferrets gain of function research in BSL-2 labs (perhaps the only good thing you can say about this BU work is that it was done in a BSL-4 lab). This got a lot of people upset including myself, and there was at least one NIH funding moratorium as a result (not really a ban, but the NIH funds so much biomedical research that probably covers a much larger fraction of it than you might think when you consider a group doing it).
That moratorium was leaky, all in progress projects were supposed to have been subject to scrutiny and many if not most allowed to continue, and was lifted after a review system was established for future grants. Do I have to tell you Saint Fauci’s attitude towards getting authorization from that system? His NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID, remember that!) simply refused to do so, “I am the science” he said in a different but still telling context.
Not that he was paying any attention to research that inherently could depopulate the earth (!), one of the FOIA gained emails showed him frantically figuring out if any Wuhan Institute of Virology gain of function research had been NIAID funded, this is the one that tells the recipient to keep his phone turned on.
So we might assume that while the above grant language in full context doesn’t exactly sound to me like gain of function research, it could well be given the top to bottom corruption of this sub-set of biomedical researchers (again, tempered by BU doing it in its own BSL-4 lab).
Can’t argue with that!
The GRE used to be fairly similar to the SAT. The math on both is essentially highschool math. I honestly don't know what you mean about the grammar or even vocabulary on the GRE; English has a grammar as do all languages and the low-frequency words are mostly the same low-frequency words on both exams. Besides, don't plenty of foreign students take the SAT to go to US undergrad institutions?
Though I'm a little rusty on the vocabulary of statistics, I think "distribution" is the keyword here. Asian IQs are more heavily clustered around the average while whites have more IQs at the low and high extremes. Not only are the low-IQ types not taking graduate admissions tests, but many with more average IQs don't take such exams either. In essence, the Asian higher average IQ of 105 confers no advantage when competing against the higher IQ white population especially when the exam is linguisto-logical rather than mathematical. Also, as Sailer has mentioned previously, it's not in the realm of probability or possibility that Asians are rapidly gaining IQ points over the last few decades. Something else accounts for the increasingly better performance, like test prep.Replies: @stillCARealist, @QCIC
My comment was based on “helping” my son study and prep for the GRE exams 2 years ago. I found the practice questions pretty subtle and challenging. There were answers that were right, and answers that were REALLY right. I can’t see even attempting that without a lifetime of good English under your belt.
I had a similar feeling while reading practice questions for the LSAT. You could know lots of stuff, or be really smart, and still fail. You have to know a lot, and be very clever and discerning at the same time.
When my relative was an engineering professor years ago, he said the white graduates all went and got jobs after college. The Asians all went to grad school because that was more prestigious for their families. And it was hard to get the students from either camp to go the other direction. I wasn’t clear if he meant ABC’s or Asian immigrants.
It's usually not a good idea to change your answers - if you start to overthink things you may change a right answer to a wrong answer. If you have not answered impulsively in the first place, your first well considered answer is usually your best one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqJ1T6r-2WQReplies: @That Would Be Telling
He doesn’t. Hydrogen bombs have an atomic bomb “primary” which is needed to create the extreme pressure that for a moment rivals the sun’s. Then there’s the question of the tamper used for the fusion fuel, use relatively cheap depleted U-238 left over from the enrichment process and you can double the yield at the cost of a great deal of extra fallout.
Biggest issue though is where the bomb goes off. Touching the surface and vaporizing a lot of ground and rock will result in lots of deadly fallout as all that condenses together into particles that fall out of the sky relatively quickly. That’s generally not what you want, air bursts are a lot more effective in distributing the energy of a warhead, but you may need to take out a hard target and you’re probably salvage fuzing your warheads so if the other fuzes fail it’ll set off the device when it slams into the earth.
Up in the air some will fall out in the short term, but plenty will stay up for a while, long enough to reduce the bad effects as the more active and thus dangerous stuff decays quickly, pretty much by definition I think. See for example the rule of seven, very roughly “the radiation dose rate is reduced by a factor of ten for every seven-fold increase in the number of hours since the explosion” (Cresson Kearny from the below linked book paraphrased by Wikipedia). So a little time goes a long ways, seven hours and it’s one tenth the original intensity, two days one percent. If I recall correctly if it gets up in the stratosphere you don’t have to worry about it at all, especially with today’s reduced warhead inventories, no “40,000” aimed at us by the Soviets.
If you’re worried about all this in the context of the war in the Ukraine or now what’s happening with the PRC, get a green cover paper copy of Nuclear War Survival Skills for to scale diagrams of the expedient electroscope radiation meter it tells you how to built out of a soup can and aluminum foil. The rest you can start learning today.
https://www.orau.org/health-physics-museum/img/museum/electroscopes/radioactivity/ge-radiation-monitor-2.jpg
https://www.orau.org/health-physics-museum/img/museum/electroscopes/radioactivity/ge-radiation-monitor-1.gif Replies: @That Would Be Telling
The GRE used to be fairly similar to the SAT. The math on both is essentially highschool math. I honestly don't know what you mean about the grammar or even vocabulary on the GRE; English has a grammar as do all languages and the low-frequency words are mostly the same low-frequency words on both exams. Besides, don't plenty of foreign students take the SAT to go to US undergrad institutions?
Though I'm a little rusty on the vocabulary of statistics, I think "distribution" is the keyword here. Asian IQs are more heavily clustered around the average while whites have more IQs at the low and high extremes. Not only are the low-IQ types not taking graduate admissions tests, but many with more average IQs don't take such exams either. In essence, the Asian higher average IQ of 105 confers no advantage when competing against the higher IQ white population especially when the exam is linguisto-logical rather than mathematical. Also, as Sailer has mentioned previously, it's not in the realm of probability or possibility that Asians are rapidly gaining IQ points over the last few decades. Something else accounts for the increasingly better performance, like test prep.Replies: @stillCARealist, @QCIC
In the past, up until the late 1950’s I think the SAT scores of Caucasian Americans were somewhat characteristic of their genetic potential, g. Since 1960 the social-cultural decay of the country has rapidly reduced the ability of Americans to THINK, which has “derated” the SAT results of these Americans. As a joke one can say contemporary kids are using a smaller percentage of their brains. Asians (and some other small groups) are culturally insulated from this decay so they score relatively better.
My hunch is that generic Americans from the 1950’s would crush modern Asian-Americans. A full nature >> nurture outlook might suggest the loss of ability in a person is reversible, but not after 14 years of anti-rational training in an Affirmative Action-biased system.
The list of terrible factors is long: street drugs, prescription psychoactive drugs, 24/7 mindless TV and other mass-media, AA and M/F aspects in the classroom, increasing level of childhood distractions such as more sports, more basket weaving, emphasis on activities which do not improve thinking abilities. Poor diet, poor sleep, etc. The significance of these can be debated but the total impact seems large. Some of these factors may actually reduce our intrinsic capabilities, so we have fewer brains to work with.
The 250 point figure came from the Harvard lawsuit and was blacks compared to Asians for recruitment letters. Seems plausible given that we have three factors in play.
1. Blacks scoring about 1 SD less on average than whites.
2. Asians scoring better on average than whites.
3. Harvard discriminating against Asians.
Here is a 2018 article with numbers based on recruitment letters.
https://nypost.com/2018/10/17/harvards-gatekeeper-reveals-sat-cutoff-scores-based-on-race/
I think it is easier to see the true gaps with recruitment (low end of the scale) rather than admissions averages which are more affected by the relatively low SAT ceiling.
Back to you.
How do you figure that? Harvard also gets to pick from the creme de la creme of American whites and Asians. Given that Harvard admits blacks around population proportion and whites at less than population proportion I would expect the W-B gap to be a bit higher than in the population.
Ah. Looking around I think I see where you got that. Figures like the one at this link.
https://www.thecrimson.com/widget/2018/10/21/sat-by-race-graphic/
Note no specification whether those scores are math, verbal, or half of combined. Imprecision like that is a tell that something is wrong. Often someone trying to mislead.
See ceiling comment above. I think it is more instructive to look at the distribution of admits by race and SAT score. Those are available in
Trial Exhibit P044. 2018. In Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of
Harvard College et al. Civil Action No. 14-14176-ADB (D. Mass). URL
https://github.
com/tyleransom/SFFAvHarvard-Docs/blob/master/TrialExhibits/P044.pdf
I planned to focus on their plots of SAT scores for admitted students in the class of 2016. Verbal on page 3, Math on page 5. Problem is, the admits plots are wrong (nice job, Harvard!). Notice that the plots for admits and applicants are the same. And appear to represent applicants. Actually that does not seem to be true either. Note that for verbal the plot indicates that for Asian applicants 75-80 2460/6299 = about 58%. Not sure what is going on with those plots so looking at the tables.
I’ll estimate the gaps based on the medians for the tables on pages 3 and 5.
Test__ | Asian | Black| White
Verbal | 770 | 720 | 760
Math_ | 780 | 720 | 760
Turns out those scores actually align fairly well with the Crimson link for both math and verbal. Interesting. What are good explanations for the relatively small gaps for admits given my points above? Is Harvard selecting less aggressively for high SATs among whites and Asians than among blacks? Seems odd, but might make sense if they are thinking of a cognitive ability threshold and selecting more for other things above that.
FWIW, the real gap to look at is the difference between otherwise equivalent (merit) applicants. I think there were some regression models in the lawsuit which looked at that, but I have already spent too much time on this comment. (I wrote this paragraph after doing the MORE)
While writing this I realized it is possible to do some interesting analysis of what proportion of nationwide black high scorers were admitted to the Harvard class of 2010.
Analyzing what proportion of nationwide black high scorers applied and were admitted to the Harvard class of 2010 uses the admissions data for the Harvard class of 2010 above and this JBHE article with 2005 SAT score information.
https://www.jbhe.com/features/49_college_admissions-test.html
I assume the Harvard class of 2010 graduated HS in 2006 and took the SAT in 2005.
2010 Verbal | 70-74 | 75-80 | Total
Applied | 191 | 120 | 311
Admitted | 66 | 58 | 124
JBHE | 842 | 363 | 1205
2010 Math| 70-74 | 75-80 | Total
Applied | 198 | 76 | 274
Admitted | 64 | 34 | 98
JBHE | 888 | 244 | 1132
So of the 750 and above black scorers we have:
Verbal – a third applied to Harvard and just over a sixth were admitted.
Math – a bit less than a third applied to Harvard and just under a seventh were admitted
For contrast above 750 verbal:
2,535 whites applied with 509 admitted. Out of about 18,200 in the US.
So for the 750+ verbal applicant pool Harvard admitted just over a sixth of blacks in the country but only 2.8% of whites. Hopefully that makes clear how big an issue mismatch at the lower levels is.
More on the class of 2010.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2006/03/the-class-of-2010-is-the-most-diverse-in-harvard-history
P.S. If anyone sees any math errors, please point out. I would appreciate a double check.
If the mean on a section is supposed to be 500, then 200 points are 1.5 standard deviations. One standard deviation is 133 on the math test. So, the test can only measure out to (800-500 = 300 points. Then 300/133 = 2.25 standard deviations.
This corresponds to 1.22% of test takers getting an 800 on the math section! By this scoring, if there were no ceiling, nearly 2000 takers would get over 900. 127 would get over 1000 (included in the over 900 group)
It seems worthwhile to find the 2000 (or 127) eighteen-year-olds with the best knack for math. The current SAT fails in three ways. It does not test aptitude. It tests achievement. Nailing sine, cosine, and tangents or 0°, 30°, 60°, and 90° angles will do wonders for your score. But is that really super-important? Find old quantitative reasoning questions if you don’t believe me. Compare to current math questions. The current ones are cookie-cutter. The old ones measured intelligence, but they were killed (in part) because they were too hard to coach!
So, too low a ceiling, not g loaded, the trifecta is that there’s nothing that measures visuospatial ability! Important in math, chemistry, biology, and generally a vital part of cognition that is useful in almost anything, is not tested at all!
Seriously, Steve, the gutting of the SAT is a huge story. The selection of not super-smart, neurotic grinds into the best colleges has had huge downstream effects, not the least of which is the rise of woke, the decline of government quality, business scandals, the great tech stagnation, the decline of movie and television writing, the non-existence of unicorns, Elvis, and Big Foot, and the reason my dog needs his nails cut.
Ok, I embellish a little, but the dumbing-down of the elite and the ensmartening of the left-behind class with smart people discriminated out of good career tracks is a huge story that no one is looking into. One reason the US is so stable is because ambitious, intelligent middle and working-class (or even lower) kids got scholarships to private and boarding schools. It was good in the meritocracy sense and also made the country more stable because people who might’ve led anti-establishment movements were co-opted into the establishment. I think it’s been a while since bright working-class white boys got scholarships to Andover. All the scholarships go to black athletes (boys) and bright(ish) black girls. I think this has been true since the mid-nineties. There are a bunch of smart people very frustrated. We saw some of them become the alt-right.
Steve, the societal changes reflected in and caused by changes in the SAT could be your book that people don’t mind having on their coffee table or bookshelf, hit up Ed Realist, they can hook you up, yo.
If the twisting the body stuff is to be believed, then a lefty at second would be preferred in getting faster 4-6-3 double plays turned, and getting faster throws to 2nd and 3rd. Outs at 2nd and 3rd are more critical than outs at first due to the nature of them being in scoring position.
If this stuff was applied with any real consistency it might be more believable.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Reg Cæsar, @ex-banker
As someone who played baseball into his early 50s, I can assure you there is plenty of evidence that it is absolutely detrimental for a lefty to throw to first base. Plus, you don’t think Bill James or Billy Beane would have had enough influence to try something as obvious and unorthodox as your suggestion if it made any sense?
Have you ever noticed that teams bunt less frequently against lefthanded pitchers when the lead runner is on second? Same principle.
Another factor could be attraction to other fields, in computers Jews are definitely underrepresented in many fundamental and important developments. Biology got a lot more exciting after DNA was figured out. "Good times make soft Jews."
Increasingly lots of us euro-Gentiles don't get an opportunity to become scientists, and I'm sure I don't have to tell you about the economics of the academic path. You could even debate how "good" the times are for a very large fraction of us, while I grant you we aren't starving like a quarter of Americans did by design under FDR (perhaps it's not so bad farmers aren't as politically powerful as they were back then).Replies: @Jack D, @Jim Don Bob
Lawrence Peterson on just how badly the new US export rules are hurting the ChiComms.
Of course, DJT was Hitler when he did something much milder.
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52980
We also can't rule out action from Xi once the current congress that's supposed to make him paramount leader for another five years ends. We also can't rule out these two events aren't linked in the US Deep State's mind.
On the other hand Peterson is still a very iffy source I don't follow, see how in the context of this very recent move he puts together Apple's move to make a few more albeit most recent iPhones in India as of last month, and right now in response to this "Biden" attack to not buy Made in China flash memory they've qualified because it's very specifically targeted. Again I'm amazed by authors who don't expect people to click through their links (here I've been following this so I knew he was pulling a fast one, am in the iPhone ecosystem since it's currently the least worst one for me).
Also, these kamikaze drones, do they scream "banzai!" before impact?
Or are "suicide" and "kamikaze" just propaganda buzzwords put in by The Associated Pederasts and the rest of the LSM to rile up the gullible? Ie., we use "smart bombs" while those devils use "suicide drones".Replies: @Peter Akuleyev
The Shahed is called a „kamikaze drone“ in Russian as well. Probably started as an Iranian marketing gimmick.
This really shows up with the relatively minor advantages for the right arm (7- or 8-4) and the lefty batter's box. TR-BLs are dishwater-common, including at the very top-- Cobb, Williams, Berra, Morgan. Fewer than 60 TL-BRs (leaving out pitchers) have played in the big leagues at all since the late 19th century, the most recognizable being Rickey Henderson and Cleon Jones.
Men aren't that much better at music than women, in the middle of the curve (and women may on average be better on the performing side). But look how much more male-dominant each genre's list of composers gets as you move from rap to country and rock to jazz and classical. Those small advantages, being factors, don't add up. They multiply way up.Replies: @Mike Tre
“On the contrary, [tasty word salad follows]”
That’s all very nice. Now provide an actual example. I’m a true TL, BR player, or was (I also golf right handed), BTW. It doesn’t prove anything about a lefty playing shortstop in the majors. The absence of lefties at the 4 5 and 6 is perpetuated by nothing more than misguided tradition.
Think of it this way. If all white men happened to be right handed, and all black men left handed, I guarantee you there’d be a lot more left handed short stops playing in the majors.
1. Blacks scoring about 1 SD less on average than whites.
2. Asians scoring better on average than whites.
3. Harvard discriminating against Asians.
Here is a 2018 article with numbers based on recruitment letters.
https://nypost.com/2018/10/17/harvards-gatekeeper-reveals-sat-cutoff-scores-based-on-race/ I think it is easier to see the true gaps with recruitment (low end of the scale) rather than admissions averages which are more affected by the relatively low SAT ceiling.
Back to you. How do you figure that? Harvard also gets to pick from the creme de la creme of American whites and Asians. Given that Harvard admits blacks around population proportion and whites at less than population proportion I would expect the W-B gap to be a bit higher than in the population.
Ah. Looking around I think I see where you got that. Figures like the one at this link.
https://www.thecrimson.com/widget/2018/10/21/sat-by-race-graphic/
Note no specification whether those scores are math, verbal, or half of combined. Imprecision like that is a tell that something is wrong. Often someone trying to mislead.
See ceiling comment above. I think it is more instructive to look at the distribution of admits by race and SAT score. Those are available in
Trial Exhibit P044. 2018. In Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of
Harvard College et al. Civil Action No. 14-14176-ADB (D. Mass). URL
https://github.
com/tyleransom/SFFAvHarvard-Docs/blob/master/TrialExhibits/P044.pdf
I planned to focus on their plots of SAT scores for admitted students in the class of 2016. Verbal on page 3, Math on page 5. Problem is, the admits plots are wrong (nice job, Harvard!). Notice that the plots for admits and applicants are the same. And appear to represent applicants. Actually that does not seem to be true either. Note that for verbal the plot indicates that for Asian applicants 75-80 2460/6299 = about 58%. Not sure what is going on with those plots so looking at the tables.
I'll estimate the gaps based on the medians for the tables on pages 3 and 5.
Test__ | Asian | Black| White
Verbal | 770 | 720 | 760
Math_ | 780 | 720 | 760
Turns out those scores actually align fairly well with the Crimson link for both math and verbal. Interesting. What are good explanations for the relatively small gaps for admits given my points above? Is Harvard selecting less aggressively for high SATs among whites and Asians than among blacks? Seems odd, but might make sense if they are thinking of a cognitive ability threshold and selecting more for other things above that.
FWIW, the real gap to look at is the difference between otherwise equivalent (merit) applicants. I think there were some regression models in the lawsuit which looked at that, but I have already spent too much time on this comment. (I wrote this paragraph after doing the MORE)
While writing this I realized it is possible to do some interesting analysis of what proportion of nationwide black high scorers were admitted to the Harvard class of 2010.
Analyzing what proportion of nationwide black high scorers applied and were admitted to the Harvard class of 2010 uses the admissions data for the Harvard class of 2010 above and this JBHE article with 2005 SAT score information.
https://www.jbhe.com/features/49_college_admissions-test.html
I assume the Harvard class of 2010 graduated HS in 2006 and took the SAT in 2005. 2010 Verbal | 70-74 | 75-80 | Total
Applied | 191 | 120 | 311
Admitted | 66 | 58 | 124
JBHE | 842 | 363 | 1205
2010 Math| 70-74 | 75-80 | Total
Applied | 198 | 76 | 274
Admitted | 64 | 34 | 98
JBHE | 888 | 244 | 1132
So of the 750 and above black scorers we have:
Verbal - a third applied to Harvard and just over a sixth were admitted.
Math - a bit less than a third applied to Harvard and just under a seventh were admitted
For contrast above 750 verbal:
2,535 whites applied with 509 admitted. Out of about 18,200 in the US.
So for the 750+ verbal applicant pool Harvard admitted just over a sixth of blacks in the country but only 2.8% of whites. Hopefully that makes clear how big an issue mismatch at the lower levels is.
More on the class of 2010.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2006/03/the-class-of-2010-is-the-most-diverse-in-harvard-history
P.S. If anyone sees any math errors, please point out. I would appreciate a double check.Replies: @Jack D, @Jack D, @Rob
When I visited MIT the admissions people were very explicit that that is what they are doing (of course they are lying in that the threshold differs based upon race) – their idea is that you are either smart enough to do the MIT curriculum or not. If you are smart enough and have other features that they want (cough -brown skin) they will take you. If you are above the threshold then being extra smart doesn’t help if you don’t have the other things that they are looking for. They could fill their entire class with nothing but 1600 Asian nerds but that’s not what they want.
Even putting blacks aside this makes a certain amount of sense given the modern scoring of the SAT. IIRC my daughter got 780 math because she carelessly missed 1 question. She could have taken it again to try for 800 but she rightly refused and MIT liked her just the same with a 780 because she had other qualities that they liked.
Well then never mind. If the AP uses kamikaze, it’s just to rile up the gullible but if TASS says it, it’s totally fine after all.
1. Blacks scoring about 1 SD less on average than whites.
2. Asians scoring better on average than whites.
3. Harvard discriminating against Asians.
Here is a 2018 article with numbers based on recruitment letters.
https://nypost.com/2018/10/17/harvards-gatekeeper-reveals-sat-cutoff-scores-based-on-race/ I think it is easier to see the true gaps with recruitment (low end of the scale) rather than admissions averages which are more affected by the relatively low SAT ceiling.
Back to you. How do you figure that? Harvard also gets to pick from the creme de la creme of American whites and Asians. Given that Harvard admits blacks around population proportion and whites at less than population proportion I would expect the W-B gap to be a bit higher than in the population.
Ah. Looking around I think I see where you got that. Figures like the one at this link.
https://www.thecrimson.com/widget/2018/10/21/sat-by-race-graphic/
Note no specification whether those scores are math, verbal, or half of combined. Imprecision like that is a tell that something is wrong. Often someone trying to mislead.
See ceiling comment above. I think it is more instructive to look at the distribution of admits by race and SAT score. Those are available in
Trial Exhibit P044. 2018. In Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of
Harvard College et al. Civil Action No. 14-14176-ADB (D. Mass). URL
https://github.
com/tyleransom/SFFAvHarvard-Docs/blob/master/TrialExhibits/P044.pdf
I planned to focus on their plots of SAT scores for admitted students in the class of 2016. Verbal on page 3, Math on page 5. Problem is, the admits plots are wrong (nice job, Harvard!). Notice that the plots for admits and applicants are the same. And appear to represent applicants. Actually that does not seem to be true either. Note that for verbal the plot indicates that for Asian applicants 75-80 2460/6299 = about 58%. Not sure what is going on with those plots so looking at the tables.
I'll estimate the gaps based on the medians for the tables on pages 3 and 5.
Test__ | Asian | Black| White
Verbal | 770 | 720 | 760
Math_ | 780 | 720 | 760
Turns out those scores actually align fairly well with the Crimson link for both math and verbal. Interesting. What are good explanations for the relatively small gaps for admits given my points above? Is Harvard selecting less aggressively for high SATs among whites and Asians than among blacks? Seems odd, but might make sense if they are thinking of a cognitive ability threshold and selecting more for other things above that.
FWIW, the real gap to look at is the difference between otherwise equivalent (merit) applicants. I think there were some regression models in the lawsuit which looked at that, but I have already spent too much time on this comment. (I wrote this paragraph after doing the MORE)
While writing this I realized it is possible to do some interesting analysis of what proportion of nationwide black high scorers were admitted to the Harvard class of 2010.
Analyzing what proportion of nationwide black high scorers applied and were admitted to the Harvard class of 2010 uses the admissions data for the Harvard class of 2010 above and this JBHE article with 2005 SAT score information.
https://www.jbhe.com/features/49_college_admissions-test.html
I assume the Harvard class of 2010 graduated HS in 2006 and took the SAT in 2005. 2010 Verbal | 70-74 | 75-80 | Total
Applied | 191 | 120 | 311
Admitted | 66 | 58 | 124
JBHE | 842 | 363 | 1205
2010 Math| 70-74 | 75-80 | Total
Applied | 198 | 76 | 274
Admitted | 64 | 34 | 98
JBHE | 888 | 244 | 1132
So of the 750 and above black scorers we have:
Verbal - a third applied to Harvard and just over a sixth were admitted.
Math - a bit less than a third applied to Harvard and just under a seventh were admitted
For contrast above 750 verbal:
2,535 whites applied with 509 admitted. Out of about 18,200 in the US.
So for the 750+ verbal applicant pool Harvard admitted just over a sixth of blacks in the country but only 2.8% of whites. Hopefully that makes clear how big an issue mismatch at the lower levels is.
More on the class of 2010.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2006/03/the-class-of-2010-is-the-most-diverse-in-harvard-history
P.S. If anyone sees any math errors, please point out. I would appreciate a double check.Replies: @Jack D, @Jack D, @Rob
BTW, I don’t think the “recruitment letter” thing (it’s basically a form of advertising) is really of any great significance, not even legally. Is it illegal to advertise on Spanish language radio which almost no blacks listen to? All the recruitment letter says is “please apply”. They are trying to increase the number of applications that they get from certain groups that are underrepresented in their applicant pool (including BTW flyover whites). They already get enough applications from underqualified Asians who are hoping to get in on a Hail Mary. OTOH they need high SAT Asians so they can take more blacks without tanking their average SAT score for US News. Unless they illegally discriminate in the people that they actually take, they can advertise to whomever they damn well please.
Have you ever noticed that teams bunt less frequently against lefthanded pitchers when the lead runner is on second? Same principle.Replies: @Mike Tre
“As someone who played baseball into his early 50s, I can assure you there is plenty of evidence”
Ok, I’ll wait for you to give me some.
“Plus, you don’t think Bill James or Billy Beane ”
How many left handed 4 5 6 prospects ever even made it far enough for them to evaluate? I’m guessing zero. No one at the MLB level is going to take a left handed 1B prospect and attempt to turn him into a SS. James and Bean were innovative, but they still worked within certain rules. Players are told from the pony leagues that lefty’s can’t play certain positions, and every coach from 6u to high school subscribes to the voodoo that a runner might be called safe on a close play because a lefty SS had to twist his body to make the throw to 1st. Any play that a RH SS has to make to his left is going to require him to twist his body to make the throw to first. Voodoo.
“Have you ever noticed that teams bunt less frequently against lefthanded pitchers when the lead runner is on second? Same principle. ”
I have noticed that no one will address the point that, if you are actually correct, a left handed 2nd baseman would be a better fit based on his supposed physical advantage to turn double plays and make throws to the extra bases.
You're a fucking idiot for making this comment.Replies: @Anonymous, @Reg Cæsar
Brush up on your quant skills, or your reading comprehension, genius. The subcontinental population is skyrocketing. From 2,500 at the end of WWII, to more than 5 million today. Same with Orientals. There has never been more White-Asian mating than there is today. And Indian and Asian men have never had more access to top White women. Expect that to increase further, as Asian, Jewish, and Hispanic men continue to displace White men from the universities and the better paying occupations.
I didn’t read all the replies, so perhaps someone else has proposed a similar theory:
Environmental effects fade as the children grow up, but don’t vanish until young adulthood. Having parents that stress academics has a stronger effect in grade school than high school, a stronger effect in high school than college, and almost no effect by the mid-20s.
This is nurture by nature. I recall a comment by Scott Alexander or a commenter that linked to a story on Reddit by an ABC of immigrant parents. She starts off by saying how much she hated the high pressure academically-focused childhood she had, including daily screaming matches with her parents while she was in high school.She married an American white man. They have a child and moved to China for her husband’s job. She enrolls her kid in a high pressure kindergarten in China. He has problems… tl:dr, why’d she do it to her kid when she hated it so much?Someone suggested that maybe it’s genetic. I think that’s plausible, would love to see IQ test results of 30-something American-born, or even 3rd generation Asians.There’s also the possibility that the ability correlations for Asians are different? Peter Frost has suggested that there are different ability correlations in Alaskan natives compared to whites. I don’t remember the details.Replies: @Anonymous Jew, @megabar
Check
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2017/05/18/intermarriage-in-the-u-s-50-years-after-loving-v-virginia/
21% of Asian men marry outside their race.
Alden is deranged. She thinks that the educational and professional achievements of Asians in America are all propaganda and that most Asians live in flophouses in San Francisco and such.Replies: @Thomm
i) ‘Alden’ is a married couple in their 70s who comment under one handle, since that is their household IP address. The better, more informative comments are from Mr. Alden, while the ‘Men of UNZ’ screeching with lower-quality prose around it is by Mrs. Alden.
ii) For Mrs. Alden, it is still 1968-78 (i.e. back when men paid attention to her). She has difficulty adjusting away from 1968-78 assumptions. This could be interesting if studied, as there is some element of ‘Rip Van Winkle’ effect here.
Biggest issue though is where the bomb goes off. Touching the surface and vaporizing a lot of ground and rock will result in lots of deadly fallout as all that condenses together into particles that fall out of the sky relatively quickly. That's generally not what you want, air bursts are a lot more effective in distributing the energy of a warhead, but you may need to take out a hard target and you're probably salvage fuzing your warheads so if the other fuzes fail it'll set off the device when it slams into the earth.
Up in the air some will fall out in the short term, but plenty will stay up for a while, long enough to reduce the bad effects as the more active and thus dangerous stuff decays quickly, pretty much by definition I think. See for example the rule of seven, very roughly "the radiation dose rate is reduced by a factor of ten for every seven-fold increase in the number of hours since the explosion" (Cresson Kearny from the below linked book paraphrased by Wikipedia). So a little time goes a long ways, seven hours and it's one tenth the original intensity, two days one percent. If I recall correctly if it gets up in the stratosphere you don't have to worry about it at all, especially with today's reduced warhead inventories, no "40,000" aimed at us by the Soviets.
If you're worried about all this in the context of the war in the Ukraine or now what's happening with the PRC, get a green cover paper copy of Nuclear War Survival Skills for to scale diagrams of the expedient electroscope radiation meter it tells you how to built out of a soup can and aluminum foil. The rest you can start learning today.Replies: @Joe Stalin, @QCIC
GE made a super-cool ionizing radiation monitor, Model 4SN11A3, that required no electrical power and sold in the 1950s. It would be neat to bring it back.
Geiger counters if they have a speaker also don't require as much looking perhaps, and there's issues with for example the ones for low level failing at high levels. If you're going to procure any, make sure they're intended for war use, not low level occupational use like these.
For the measure rather low levels. 300 mR max is not exactly dangerous quickly, and is useless for the early part of nuclear war unless you're lucky. For one metric, the LD-50 without hospital access to deal with bone marrow issues is ~450 R delivered to your whole body fairly "quickly." (Like, after general levels get down, don't sleep on the ground if there is like 2R/hour, an example from memory in Nuclear War Survival Skills.) So if these don't fail at high rates they could tell you when you got into a safe space, and be used to survey all of a shelter.
Also would want to know how physically durable they were. Mercury in a glass tube isn't great, also wonder about taunt wire, then again I don't know how shock resistant they got Geiger tubes to be.
>> I believe one aspect of the rising gap–I believe Twinkie has pointed at this–is simply more Indian.
Not just more South Asians Americans, higher ability than the late gen legacy Chinese Americans. However at the very top, say 99.9 percentile like the Int Math Olympiad where there were 4 Chinese American with IMO22 rank better than 45 and the sole South Asian American was at IMO22 rank 230. From the Mandarin transliterate surnames 3 out of the 4 Chinese Americans are children of recent migrants from mainland China. US could not field a SECOND LATE GEN LEGACY White American or Chinese American with better than IMO22 rank 230 ability, results of the poisonous DIE dogma across the board for all LEGACY American students. 5 Peru Hispanics from the about 600,000 pop did have IMO22 rank better than 230. So are 5 Saudis in that range.
=====
From the (smart fraction) 90 percentile NAEP results for Asian by US states with regression with respect to the percentages of Asian ethnicities, the contribution (effect size) of the ethnicities on the overall NEAP Asian scores can be determined. Only states with all the ethnicities considered are included. Indian migrant students have slightly higher effect on the NEAP score than that for Chinese. Surprisingly Cambodian is at the top. Most Chinese Americans are descendants from the historical railroad builders and gold miners whereas the South Asian Indians are from the more recent selected immigrants.
lm(formula = Asi90 ~ Chinese + Japanese + Korean + Vietnamese +
Indian + Filipino + Hmong + Cambodian)
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 211.4987 34.9595 6.050 8.08e-06 ***
Cambodian 2.4253 1.1323 2.142 0.045369 *
Korean 2.3114 0.6833 3.383 0.003125 **
Indian 1.8924 0.4194 4.512 0.000238 *** <–
Chinese 1.8183 0.4686 3.880 0.001008 ** <–
Vietnamese 1.7957 0.6097 2.945 0.008309 **
Hmong 1.3015 0.4258 3.057 0.006488 **
Filipino 1.1354 0.3705 3.065 0.006379 **
Japanese 0.9207 0.4766 1.932 0.068445 .
—
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 7.862 on 19 degrees of freedom
(1 observation deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared: 0.7989, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7142
F-statistic: 9.435 on 8 and 19 DF, p-value: 3.327e-05
Of course, DJT was Hitler when he did something much milder.
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52980Replies: @That Would Be Telling
On the one hand Lawrence Peterson knows more than most by turning what he’s seeing into a time based prediction of when yields are going to crash. The real trick for us is when we can see evidence of that. Also, in theory less cutting edge stuff should get licensed by the Commerce department and the American tech support etc. staff should be able to go back to those fab lines. All depends on how the department uses its discretion and how quickly it acts.
We also can’t rule out action from Xi once the current congress that’s supposed to make him paramount leader for another five years ends. We also can’t rule out these two events aren’t linked in the US Deep State’s mind.
On the other hand Peterson is still a very iffy source I don’t follow, see how in the context of this very recent move he puts together Apple’s move to make a few more albeit most recent iPhones in India as of last month, and right now in response to this “Biden” attack to not buy Made in China flash memory they’ve qualified because it’s very specifically targeted. Again I’m amazed by authors who don’t expect people to click through their links (here I’ve been following this so I knew he was pulling a fast one, am in the iPhone ecosystem since it’s currently the least worst one for me).
“In contrast, Asians have been increasingly outscoring everybody else on college admissions tests in this century, but less on postgrad admissions tests, and the tiny percentage of people who know about it, such as myself, tend to be pretty uncertain about why it’s happening, and nobody else seems interested.”
A potential conspiracy theory might go, ‘Well, the reason that Asians (Chinese in particular for this example) are outscoring native born US students on the SAT, is because in China they have copies of the SAT or they have examples of what the SAT will look like in a given academic year. But obviously they don’t have such luck with getting copies or examples of the LSAT/MCAT (or other postgraduate tests for entrance to US admissions to postgraduate programs). In other words the key for Asians is to gain admission into US universities. Once they’re admitted, they’re basically on their own. IF they want to continue their academic careers and go on to graduate school, then that’s all on them and they’ll have to figure it out for themselves’.
Graduate school. The great American University equalizer among the races.
Whites can look for work in the trades, but there is increasing competition there from Latinxes.Replies: @Anonymous, @TickTock1948, @Alden
Re White women.
To the extent that I have loyalties to the Caucasian race (and I do have at least some) the notion of White women marrying Asian men bothers me not at all. Had I a daughter and she married a man smarter than I, then my grandchild is also likely to be smarter. To view this any other way is short term thinking, which will keep your grandchildren second tier.
I'm agnostic on the question of the whether the Asian-white gap is going up mostly because of
-- Asian test prep really getting a number on the test, and more Asians test prepping harder
or
-- HBD, smarter Asians from selective immigration of smarter Asian groupsI strongly suspect both are involved.Replies: @dux.ie
The Asian-white gap can be manufactured to what ever value you want by simply placing the ARBITARY low ceiling RAW score to whatever value you want whereby sifting the Asian mean to the left and reducing the gap.
Some of the commenters would have been even more apoplectic if they were aware of the real (larger) likely gap.Replies: @Truth
I believe the year with the highest average nationwide score for the SAT was 1962, when both the scoring and the test itself was harder. And when America was still White.
One big secret in the success of asians and dotheads in 2022 America is that their young people live a lot like American White youth did in 1962. Close families, cohesive communities, religious faith (much of it Christian), a lack of drugs. They mostly seem fit, well groomed, well mannered, cleareyed, and optimistic about the future and their places in it.
American White youth these days, for the most part, are a bunch of dispirited flabby infantile mopes, lost in stupid childlike fantasy worlds. Almost all–even “upper” classes–are thoroughly wiggerized, which causes a lot of harm, although it only reaches truly disastrous levels among the proles.
I hate it, but, really, why TF shouldn’t they look down on us? We’re the ones lying down there in the gutter. In our own freaking country, that we’re giving away.
We must add to this other character and personality traits, also liable to be hereditary in character, of which east Asians surpass Europeans in positive scores, eg, conscientious, application, discipline, focus, obedience, conformity etc. As an aside, one theory is that positive selection for these traits is correlated with historic high population densities in east Asia, Malthusian selection pressures and the reality of ever present death through starvation.
As for the apparent discordance between east Asian SAT scores and graduate program test scores as compared to Europeans, I cannot venture an answer. I can only conjecture that the self selected cohorts taking these tests cannot be compared to the SAT pool in terms of motivation and IQ.Replies: @Prester John, @anon
Japanese don’t like being lumped in with Koreans and especially Chinese. They see many differences. China are the least conscientious people on earth; they game anything and everything. How is obedience and conformist good? Some of the most non-conformist people have also accomplished the most, eg, Einstein
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11323677/Outrage-Boston-University-CREATES-Covid-strain-80-kill-rate.html
At this point, we need to start pulling the funding of scientists who do this. Some Biden government weasel had to give the okay to this project to fund it. "Yeah, go ahead, go create a version of Covid that actually kills almost everybody. Peachy-keen idea!"
Why? Why did they bother? Funding cures for coronaviruses is okay, but anyone trying to make more lethal strains of Covid should be charged with a felony and locked up to protect humanity.
The childishness, irresponsibility, and idiocy of this is off the charts. The Biden administration deliberately funded this, which is why they must be kicked out of office before they do any more damage to the rest of the planet. They're all massive retards.Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Rob
I agree that this is very dangerous research. Should it be banned?
Well, we learned something from this research. Specifically, we got off really lucky with COVID. A couple of times I’ve said that smallpox had minor (1% CFR) and major (30% CFR) varieties, and maybe we got COVID minor. This research shows that was right. This is a really important thing to know.
For one thing, it disproves Unz’s bio weapon theory. No one making bio weapons tries to make low fatality ones unless it’s very low fatality. There was speculation that the government was working on flu/colds that would only affect Russians a few years back. But, COVID affects everyone, does it not?
Despite learning something, this research has massive risks. Like, um, creating a COVID strain with 80% CFR, but probably it was IFR, even deadlier.
That said, death rate from an experimental infection depends on the dose innoculated, measured in plaque forming units (pfu) or 50% tissue culture infecting dose (TCID50). I saw an old human challenge trial of various viruses, and they could get some infections consistently with doses below 1 pfu, so maybe high-concentration viruses are clumping, reducing the infectivity of huge doses, but it could just be Brownian motion in the intercellular spaces in you gets more viruses into contact with cells. The latter seems more likely.
Ok, I read the preprint https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.13.512134v1.full.pdf
This is a tempest in a teapot! The 80% fatality rate was in newborn mice, not even adults. Wildtype (SARS-CoV-2 Classic) killed 6/6 in less time than SARS-CoV-2 “chassis” with the omicron spike killed 80%.
So, their “gain of function” virus is less deadly than one of the originals. But, this research was done before there was an omicron-based vaccine available.
It is really important to know that omicron’s attenuation is not solely due to the heavily mutated spike protein. It is attenuated intracellularly. This is a fantastic thing to know! It would be great if we knew the natural history of omicron. If it attenuated this way in man, it is vindication of my theory that attenuation of new infectious agents (at least viruses) is due to trying to escape the intercellular portion of innate immunity. If it evolved in one or more animal hosts, it just tells us that propagation in one host tends to attenuate virulence in another, which we knew.
All that said, the public and responsible scientists are very concerned with gof research. They are right! If anyone likes, I outlined 10 or so ways that gof research could be done more safely I’ll see if I can’t look it up. Here it is.
I’ll add one. If they are working on an actual virus, say coronavirus, they need to create temperature sensitive mutants of two proteins. They can experiment on both attenuated strains in parallel or combine both so that they are working with a doubly attenuated virus. The live attenuated flu vaccine has temperature-sensitive mutations in every “gut” gene, only two envelope proteins are wildtype of the (hopefully) circulating strain. This was possible back in da day wif influenza because they have segmented genomes. Each segment codes for a polypeptide (I think one’s an exception) so temperature sensitive mutants could be isolated for each gene separately, then eggs could be co-infected with two attenuated viruses. When they infect the same cell, new virus particles have mixed genomes, so doubly attenuated viruses can be isolated. We can do this to any virus today, even monopartite ones. There might be a type of virus we can’t engineer, but engineering two virus families with double stranded genomes that do all their replication in their capsids were cleverly solved in the last decade.
Making temperature-sensitive proteins is practically a solved problem. Their are at least two ways that can be done in silico without crystal structures, not even of homologous proteins. Or, in vitro selection is possible, but why, when you can do it with 90% certainty from the sequence?
I’ve read that mice kept in low temperature environments have core temperatures 2 °C (like 4 F) lower than mice kept in room temperature. That should make infecting them with ts viruses a lot more like infecting warmer mice with wt viruses. The higher body temps of birds and bats are one reason why their viruses can be so bad for us — our fevers are brisk spring days for them.
Since you are the one claiming data necessarily prove discrimination, and there are no other factors involved, it’s up to you to provide the examples. Otherwise, you’re no better than Jesse Jackson.
And not in the majors. Due only to blind prejudice.
And you have data from Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Panama, and Venezuela to back this up?
I am well-aware – I have Mongolian training partners. They are steppe Asians, a whole other bag of beans. On the other hand, they aren’t the brightest.
A right-hander would have a slight advantage throwing to third, a left-hander to first. Which throw is a) more common, and b) more crucial?
And who is right? Do small statistical advantages disappear at the right tail of the curve (Mike Tre), or do they magnify (me)? While we wait for others to chime in, I’ll listen to Mozart, Mike to Mrs Beach.
The Twin Cities have experienced the same darkening as other major US cities have, but are a couple of decades behind the curve.
Likewise, they may also lag behind in gentrification, as in San Francisco and Washington. DC is steadily whitening– whites will likely outnumber blacks by the next census. (They may already outnumber native blacks.) SF, though less white than in the past, is significantly more less black. One in six “Baghdadis” was black when OJ grew up there, now it’s one in twenty.
I’ll add one. If they are working on an actual virus, say coronavirus, they need to create temperature sensitive mutants of two proteins. They can experiment on both attenuated strains in parallel or combine both so that they are working with a doubly attenuated virus. The live attenuated flu vaccine has temperature-sensitive mutations in every “gut” gene, only two envelope proteins are wildtype of the (hopefully) circulating strain. This was possible back in da day wif influenza because they have segmented genomes. Each segment codes for a polypeptide (I think one’s an exception) so temperature sensitive mutants could be isolated for each gene separately, then eggs could be co-infected with two attenuated viruses. When they infect the same cell, new virus particles have mixed genomes, so doubly attenuated viruses can be isolated. We can do this to any virus today, even monopartite ones. There might be a type of virus we can’t engineer, but engineering two virus families with double stranded genomes that do all their replication in their capsids were cleverly solved in the last decade.Making temperature-sensitive proteins is practically a solved problem. Their are at least two ways that can be done in silico without crystal structures, not even of homologous proteins. Or, in vitro selection is possible, but why, when you can do it with 90% certainty from the sequence?I’ve read that mice kept in low temperature environments have core temperatures 2 °C (like 4 F) lower than mice kept in room temperature. That should make infecting them with ts viruses a lot more like infecting warmer mice with wt viruses. The higher body temps of birds and bats are one reason why their viruses can be so bad for us — our fevers are brisk spring days for them.Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Rob
Indeed, please do not quit your day job. Your analysis rings true, and I’ve still saved a year or two of study in a field I’m no longer so interested in (once I took first term organic, and my time on earth is now a lot shorter than back then):
This is indeed useful, although emphasizing the potential danger and how we’re not doing any? of the list of precautions that as far as I could follow (you do write well for audiences with a bit more than a basic biology background), it sounds like it would be hard to extrapolate the above to humans. They use newborn mice for a reason I must assume, so we can see that narrowing of the animal model very crudely does not translate into lethality in human infants.
Don’t know when they did the research in reference to our discovering classic Wuhan stabilized spike protein vaccines (not sure about wild type AZ/Oxford’s) and/or natural immunity to probably classic Wuhan through Delta still provided good short term protection against Omicron.
Locally my medical systems said vaccinated people just weren’t dying if hospitalized. Which of course does not inform us about morbidity including the delayed mortality with classic Wuhan prior to vaccines.
Yeah, “Out of Africa” lacks something in specificity. I haven’t been following the details of what makes it less nasty (see above not getting up to speed) but that type of attenuation is very interesting. Frequently when I look at certain sorts of papers (well, their abstracts) I see another mechanism we’ve discovered that make SARS-CoV-2 more effective, last today was a protease that as perhaps an additional function wacked a part of a defensive protein.
Sounds like a golden age for virology and whatever else is in the domain of viruses, their host cells and all their and the immune systems’ defenses against them. Looked up many of the grants supporting this research and one for example claimed to be interferon focused. I’ll read this pre-print especially since you’re implicitly endorsing it to a degree (mostly, not saying BULLS***!!!).
Quasi-existential threats will do that. I suppose we won’t adopt something like your excellent set of gain of function safety recommendations unless and until hundreds of millions or billions die from another leak, assuming the field and its researchers and I’m afraid others aren’t just killed out of hand….
Sort of like how I predict what it’ll take for us to get more serious about software quality (the field I ended up in), a few dead haven’t done it, so thousands? Tens of thousands? Millions??? At least in that domain there’s less opportunity to play for example the “no true gain of function research” diversion that’s been the go-to since practicing doctor Rand Paul started putting Saith Fauci in the hot seat, that little troll pretty clearly doing little if any hands on doctoring after his residency, and not for long.
And this was effectively or potentially a gain of function experiment wasn’t it, even if the objective was not to create a more adapted to humans virus…?
Environmental effects fade as the children grow up, but don't vanish until young adulthood. Having parents that stress academics has a stronger effect in grade school than high school, a stronger effect in high school than college, and almost no effect by the mid-20s.Replies: @Rob
Ah, a real nurture effect! Good catch, megabar. This “genetic tiger mom” effect you have discovered is truly a fantastic catch. A great application of the discoveries of IQ and heritability research. You deserve a gold box.
Conceptually, this is somewhat similar to what’s maybe called “genetic nurture,” whereby parental alleles the child did not inherit influence the phenotype of the child. I’ve proposed a “genetic neighbor” effect, whereby the genes of the people in your society (writ at whatever scale, from neighborhood, to school, to city, state, or country.
Anyway, the tiger mom genes serve to catapult the kids higher up in society than they would rise left to their own devices in a “normal” American environment. Then the kid grows up, becomes more themself, and probably coasts quite a bit. Then, they tiger mom their kids. I hope, though, that Asians are just rising to their natural level in SES, then they will chill a bit?
For society, tiger momming is a problem. People end up over their heads. Oh, maybe delaying adulthood has a positive effect in that patenting wears off before people hit their career track, helping to put capable people in good spots.
I really wonder what employers think of young American Born Asians (ABAs). Are they disappointed? Stoked? Do they perform as well as their credentials indicate?
It is yet another reason to re-revamp the SAT. Bring back analogies. Bring back the old math section. Make the test harder to study for, so kids get some life back? Expand the vocabulary to every word in English, rather than a thousand “smart words” for midwits. It’d advantage Asians, but add a visuospatial section? I think those are hard to game/train but maybe if they are, then there is some transfer? Spatial skills are not taught in schools, so there’s probably a lot of real learning (with far transfer to other tests/applications) possible. I remember a visuospatial course for incoming freshman girls in engineering. They did a few hours s weak in clsssroom and homework. They ended up showing I think a half sigma on different visuospatial tests than the things they taught.
Robert Trivers has an unz.com blog, you might want to hit him up. Flynn, maybe?
This is nurture by nature. I recall a comment by Scott Alexander or a commenter that linked to a story on Reddit by an ABC of immigrant parents. She starts off by saying how much she hated the high pressure academically-focused childhood she had, including daily screaming matches with her parents while she was in high school.
She married an American white man. They have a child and moved to China for her husband’s job. She enrolls her kid in a high pressure kindergarten in China. He has problems… tl:dr, why’d she do it to her kid when she hated it so much?
Someone suggested that maybe it’s genetic. I think that’s plausible, would love to see IQ test results of 30-something American-born, or even 3rd generation Asians.
There’s also the possibility that the ability correlations for Asians are different? Peter Frost has suggested that there are different ability correlations in Alaskan natives compared to whites. I don’t remember the details.
Yes, I agree. As an example, how a minority group of people functions within a society is not (necessarily) indicative of how they will behave in a society in which they are the majority.
> Anyway, the tiger mom genes serve to catapult the kids higher up in society than they would rise left to their own devices in a “normal” American environment.
Agreed. This reminds me of the problem with metrics: Once people know that a metric is suggestive of something (e.g. SAT scores -> g), ambitious people will optimize their result as measured by the metric, such that it no longer is as suggestive. Thus, metrics can promote ambition more than anything else, in some cases.
> Make the test harder to study for, so kids get some life back?
If it can be done, I fully support this. Grades already indicate diligence (another important trait) to a good enough degree, so let the tests measure g to the degree possible. The only thing I'd do is measure early and often, so that it's not a huge life stress. I agree that kids should be kids, not aspiring college students.
> would love to see IQ test results of 30-something American-born, or even 3rd generation Asians.
My guess is that the IQ advantage East Asians have is modest but real, and most pronounced in math. IQ is important, but it's not the only thing that matters in forming a good society. I think the jury is out whether the Chinese will build a better society than the West did. It would not surprise me if they did, and it would not surprise me if they didn't. And if they do, I would be happy to remain in a traditional white society, if any exist.
More broadly, there are a set of principles I've come to believe are true, and that are useful in analyzing group performance:
1. Both genes and environment matter, to varying degrees, depending on what you're looking at
2. Environmental effects diminish as a person matures, but generally not to zero
3. Innate traits of the population affect the constructed environment
4. Environment affects fertility patterns, thus affecting genes
None of these are surprising by themselves, but they do intersect in interesting ways. I believe the following are a natural consequence of the above:
1. There are threshold effects with genetics changes. A small minority has a lower-than-expected effect on a society, but at some threshold, each additional minority member has a larger-than-expected effect as the group starts to exert influence on the society. This in unfortunate, because it blinds people to the risks of demographics changes early on.
2. Even with a great genetic stock, bad societal rules will create dysgenic trends that will eventually bring about a bad environment as well as worse genes. The reverse is also true, but it's hard to get a bad genetic stock to promote a good environment. In the fullness of time, you'd get better results with bad genes and good rules than the reverse, assuming the society can survive long enough. And simply having "good stock" is not enough to stand the test of time.
3. Immigration is eugenic with a eugenic environment, and dysgenic in a dysgenic environment. But of course, immigration can itself change the environment.
4. It's very hard to specifically conclusively answer the nature/nurture debate, because of the gene/environment interactions and differences in environment effect by age.
And who is right? Do small statistical advantages disappear at the right tail of the curve (Mike Tre), or do they magnify (me)? While we wait for others to chime in, I'll listen to Mozart, Mike to Mrs Beach.Replies: @Truth
A left hander would have a huge dis-advantage throwing to first with a right-handed batter up (which most hitters are). He’d either have to take two steps backwards after catching the ball or he risk hitting the batter with the throw.
You're a fucking idiot for making this comment.Replies: @Anonymous, @Reg Cæsar
Altai’s comment was followed by a thread of replies from, in order, Anon, Anonymous, Anonymous, and Anon. Is this two, three, or four commenters?
Note the escalating rudeness. This is what anonymity (as opposed to pseudonymity) encourages.
This reply hit the 3/hr wall. Locating the previous comment again to repost took a simple and obvious letter-string search– if you see what I’m getting at!
geldedshorn of every item which could possibly discomfit test-preppers. Since "Asians" as Americans call them are the champion test-preppers of all time, the SAT is now their lap dog.(An optional essay test offered along with the SAT for a few years after 2016 was discontinued in 2022.)[1] In 2015, Steve, you questioned the then-86-years-old Atkinson's grasp of statistics, suggesting he was too stupid to realize what neutering the SAT would do. Although I suggested at that time that Atkinson's intellect might indeed have faded a bit with old age, I thought then and now that Atkinson understood statistics very well indeed during his active career and was simply an expert and aggressive political liar. Seriously, look at Atkinson's CV. He was a much acclaimed math professor and statistics expert. When he promoted claptrap like S. J. Gould's Mismeasure of Man in the mid-2000's to bolster his war on the SAT, Atkinson knew full well that it was garbage. That was why he promoted it. Atkinson's personal writings about his campaign against the SAT are filled with misdirection and evasion easily detected by students of the issues.Replies: @Anonymous, @dux.ie
From OECD Creative Problem solving using very ill defined and incomplete information questions where rote learning, memorization do not help, Asians are much better at NEW KNOWLEDGE ACQUITION. Though the Canadian, Australian and Fin are better than Chinese in COPY CAT KNOWLEDGE UTILIZATION, Chinese are still way ahead of other Whites in this attribute. So head they win and tail you lose.
But the Asian-white gap change suggests:
-- Asians are getting smarter relative to whites. (Asians getting smarter and/or whites getting dumber.)
-- Asians are getting relatively better at taking the tests.
(For the record--I think it is both. Asians better at gaming the tests, and smarter Asians--relatvely more Asians being children of selected came-via-US-college/grad-school immigrants, especially high caste Asian Indians.)
And for the record, no one--no one thinking logically--has ever thought the SAT isn't "gameable". On pretty much all tests, practice improves performance. On physical stuff there might be an immediate pretty hard limit. But we generally don't test mental performance as directly--say reaction times or evoked potentials. We have people do some mental tasks. And the whole "learning" thing: if you know what those tasks are and practice them ... you get better!
The College Board liked to claim back in the day that you couldn't do much. But the general consensus was about 50 points (at the midrange) is just laying there if you just do thorough prep. But lots of Asians go well beyond thorough prep to making the test itself sort of actual subject of study, and "game" if you will where you get down all the hacks to get to the next level, and the next level. Becoming SAT "masters".Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @dux.ie, @Dvnjbbgc
Theoretically SAT is suppose to resemble IQ. However it is very expansive to develope and calibrate the questions on difficulty and fairness that SAT recycled some old questions or some with slight changes. It is these later questions that are proned to prep, especially to those with good memory. Just like chess masters study past competition results.
Just- there are no new puzzling & inexplicable experimental data..... except a few of them, possibly.Replies: @PhysicistDave
I want to repost here part of a comment from BK from almost exactly a year ago because it really illuminates what we are discussing:
Mark and I were friends in grad school at Stanford: we had the same thesis advisor. I’d lost contact with Mark, and I had been thinking about getting back in touch and asking him what he thought about the current state of the field.
The quote from BK from a year ago pretty much answers that question.
Mark, by the way, is a very upbeat guy, well-connected within the field: Mark now holds a named chair at Caltech.
If Mark sees the field as stagnating… well, that is dispositive.
(BK: thanks for that comment which I had somehow missed a year ago.)
Just ridiculous.
I remember reading that Ichiro Suzuki’s dad, let his son play with his friends six hours per
year. The rest of the time he had to practice baseball.
Sam Malone asked me:
Well, I have not checked out the stats, so I am just guessing from what I remember at the time.
There were two things going on back around 1980, though.
First, prior to 1980, accelerators were just a lot cheaper: the SPEAR machine at SLAC, for example, which discovered the charm quark, was built by using money out of the operating budget (I spent a summer working on a prototype for part of a detector for the successor to SPEAR, the so-called PEP project, so I remember people talking about all this). To make new discoveries required much higher energies, which, given the way particle accelerators work, meant much bigger, and much more expensive, accelerators.
Second, my own teachers’ generation sort of fell into the field: you went to college, you were good at physics, and there happened to be this cool stuff to do. The field was new and expanding rapidly, so if you were bright and hard-working, you could get into it.
By my generation, lots of bright students knew about the subject, and lots of us were trained as grad students to work in the field — more of us, in fact, than there were openings in the field. It became a bit of a Ponzi scheme: the profs needed lots of grad students to do the grunt work to advance the profs’ careers, but the number of jobs in the field just could not keep doubling indefinitely to provide permanent positions to all those grad students.
So, I may have painted a slightly misleading picture if I seemed to imply that they drastically cut our funding around 1980. The problem, rather, is that the field was structured around the assumption of ever-expanding funding — both in terms of the cost of accelerator technology as well as an ever-growing supply of young physicists — and that was just not possible.
Sam also asked:
They are mathematically very interesting and very appealing aesthetically. I’ve played around with them a bit myself, though I am certainly no expert.
The big problem, as you imply, is no one has the foggiest idea how to connect them to experiment. That, of course, is catastrophic. My own feeling is that there are some real conceptual issues with string theory that bear investigation but that too much work has tried to make, thus far completely futile, connections to reality. I don’t think we really understand what these theories are yet.
Peter Woit’s “Not Even Wrong” blog and Sabine Hossenfelder’s “Backreaction” blog have discussions going back some years on why there are problems.
Sam also asked:
Yeah, basically. Some scientists are of course more honest than others. It is hard for some theorists who have devoted their whole adult lives to superstring theory to admit to its deep problems.
It is a lot easier for experimentalists to see the problems… since of course they are exasperated that there is no way to confront the theory with experiment.
Prester John wrote to me:
Yeah. If a young person asked me what field of science to go into today with the biggest chance of making an earthshaking discovery, I’d tell him to go into neuroscience.
Consciousness: we all have it, we all know what it is, and no one knows how to make sense of it scientifically. And at a practical level, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, etc. really matter.
As to whether that is a good way to make a living… well, I’m not the only person who knows that this is an exciting field: a few years ago, my brother-in-law, who is an architect, and I were talking with our kids, and the physicist and the architect agreed that neuroscience is where it’s at.
So, the competition for jobs may be pretty fierce. And, for anyone who is not a trust-fund baby, job prospects do matter.
Of course, an MD in neurology or brain surgery might be one feasible route.
I suspect you're right. Ahh, good ol' Parson Weems. Hagiography is hardly limited to adult fare.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Ralph L
His house is a museum in Dumfries VA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weems%E2%80%93Botts_Museum
We saw the sign on I-95 and stopped by soon after it opened in the 70s, but it was closed for the day. Biggest disappointment of my young life.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvIW7VE605wcMmyJdXkkjnQlyAzw6m4TSGWNK0dR88v2cSB33u3_vlowsRk3XkKsBHtUo9_Bi0eBGVrBCYNb4KCxlDv9mu44UQHSRhgyYcK6l1cEi-g2_OUZrn1UZvfrHIesqUGFgApOVWduBNhB-YgroG6E0PwSSbKqsKhbLH9eApxDuFtplBC4DzqQ/s610/satceil2.pngReplies: @Twinkie
I don’t think most commenters and perhaps readers of this thread understand that making the SAT easier actually reduced the apparent gap between the white and Asian averages than otherwise would have been (by bumping the ceiling of top score downward and reducing the advantage of the Asians at the highest score bracket).
Some of the commenters would have been even more apoplectic if they were aware of the real (larger) likely gap.
Twinx, no one can say you're not a slick one...
Biggest issue though is where the bomb goes off. Touching the surface and vaporizing a lot of ground and rock will result in lots of deadly fallout as all that condenses together into particles that fall out of the sky relatively quickly. That's generally not what you want, air bursts are a lot more effective in distributing the energy of a warhead, but you may need to take out a hard target and you're probably salvage fuzing your warheads so if the other fuzes fail it'll set off the device when it slams into the earth.
Up in the air some will fall out in the short term, but plenty will stay up for a while, long enough to reduce the bad effects as the more active and thus dangerous stuff decays quickly, pretty much by definition I think. See for example the rule of seven, very roughly "the radiation dose rate is reduced by a factor of ten for every seven-fold increase in the number of hours since the explosion" (Cresson Kearny from the below linked book paraphrased by Wikipedia). So a little time goes a long ways, seven hours and it's one tenth the original intensity, two days one percent. If I recall correctly if it gets up in the stratosphere you don't have to worry about it at all, especially with today's reduced warhead inventories, no "40,000" aimed at us by the Soviets.
If you're worried about all this in the context of the war in the Ukraine or now what's happening with the PRC, get a green cover paper copy of Nuclear War Survival Skills for to scale diagrams of the expedient electroscope radiation meter it tells you how to built out of a soup can and aluminum foil. The rest you can start learning today.Replies: @Joe Stalin, @QCIC
I hate to agree with Tyson and add to the fear porn, but his basic point seems correct. The nuclear fallout from a serious nuclear exchange is MUCH less than from a worst-case cold war scenario, even one from the 1980’s. Worse yet, the fallout from a major exchange with many hundreds of warheads is known territory, believe it or not. It would crush civilization, billions of people would eventually die and the radiation damage to the genome is a painful thing to consider.
Most of the modern strategic warheads are fairly small. They use small fission primaries and probably most do not have heavy U-238 cases, unlike obsolete higher yield weapons. So the total amount of dispersed plutonium, uranium, long-lived fission products and transuranic elements is relatively small compared to Cold War 1.0.
I think the fallout from a major exchange (2 x 500 warheads?) is probably less than the fallout released by all the above ground test explosions (~500). A lot of these were detonated in the late 50’s, early 60’s before the above ground test ban. This is what I mean by known territory, a lot of people were contaminated and life went on for most of us. Unfortunately, the bottom line is the opposite of Tyson’s core message of don’t worry too much: you should worry about nuclear war, since nuclear planners are not as worried about the effects as we are.
Prompt deaths from a 2×500 scenario, to paraphrase General Buck ~ 200 million, tops. Follow-up deaths (3 years) ~ 4 billion due to disruption of modern technological society and starvation.
Another data point for fallout is Fukushima. I haven’t seen any believable numbers, but I suspect 4 reactor loads of spent fuel were burned and released into the atmosphere. This could be more total activity than all the above ground tests.
There are no useful targets in Ukraine for tactical nukes, so the most likely scenario is a Western (or Chinese?) false flag.
I am not trying to down play the horrors of a nuclear war. I just wanted to add context for radioactive fallout.
Fred Reed's article published at The Saker on Oct. 22 discusses the larger set of horrors which come with a nuclear exchange.
The parallels with bio-warfare are strong.
I’ll add one. If they are working on an actual virus, say coronavirus, they need to create temperature sensitive mutants of two proteins. They can experiment on both attenuated strains in parallel or combine both so that they are working with a doubly attenuated virus. The live attenuated flu vaccine has temperature-sensitive mutations in every “gut” gene, only two envelope proteins are wildtype of the (hopefully) circulating strain. This was possible back in da day wif influenza because they have segmented genomes. Each segment codes for a polypeptide (I think one’s an exception) so temperature sensitive mutants could be isolated for each gene separately, then eggs could be co-infected with two attenuated viruses. When they infect the same cell, new virus particles have mixed genomes, so doubly attenuated viruses can be isolated. We can do this to any virus today, even monopartite ones. There might be a type of virus we can’t engineer, but engineering two virus families with double stranded genomes that do all their replication in their capsids were cleverly solved in the last decade.Making temperature-sensitive proteins is practically a solved problem. Their are at least two ways that can be done in silico without crystal structures, not even of homologous proteins. Or, in vitro selection is possible, but why, when you can do it with 90% certainty from the sequence?I’ve read that mice kept in low temperature environments have core temperatures 2 °C (like 4 F) lower than mice kept in room temperature. That should make infecting them with ts viruses a lot more like infecting warmer mice with wt viruses. The higher body temps of birds and bats are one reason why their viruses can be so bad for us — our fevers are brisk spring days for them.Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Rob
Oops. I meant attenuated trying to escape the intracellular immune response. It has to be be one (or very few) genomes infecting a cell, or there’s a tragedy of the commons inside the cell, just like it is in the extra cellular space and airways of the lungs.
But the Asian-white gap change suggests:
-- Asians are getting smarter relative to whites. (Asians getting smarter and/or whites getting dumber.)
-- Asians are getting relatively better at taking the tests.
(For the record--I think it is both. Asians better at gaming the tests, and smarter Asians--relatvely more Asians being children of selected came-via-US-college/grad-school immigrants, especially high caste Asian Indians.)
And for the record, no one--no one thinking logically--has ever thought the SAT isn't "gameable". On pretty much all tests, practice improves performance. On physical stuff there might be an immediate pretty hard limit. But we generally don't test mental performance as directly--say reaction times or evoked potentials. We have people do some mental tasks. And the whole "learning" thing: if you know what those tasks are and practice them ... you get better!
The College Board liked to claim back in the day that you couldn't do much. But the general consensus was about 50 points (at the midrange) is just laying there if you just do thorough prep. But lots of Asians go well beyond thorough prep to making the test itself sort of actual subject of study, and "game" if you will where you get down all the hacks to get to the next level, and the next level. Becoming SAT "masters".Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @dux.ie, @Dvnjbbgc
In the eighties, a teacher at my high school told us that studying for college admission tests didn’t work, AND that we weren’t supposed to study for them, because it would skew the results, somehow. The idea seemed to be that the tests were to assess, categorize and assign a value to students, like farm produce, or livestock, with their fate entirely beyond their control.
That teacher was my father. I was glad when he died.
East Asians tend to excel in quantitative rather than verbal skills. In the SAT, they tend to score 800 in Math but lower in Verbal. LSAT and MCAT both require high verbal skills, so EA don’t stand out as much.
Also, the path for the smartest Asian kids these days is to excel in high school, get into an expensive college, study CS or Econ, then go straight into tech or finance after that BA/BS, make the big bucks and pay off that expensive college. Few go on to grad schools anymore. Those who do tend to be children of wealthy doctors and lawyers following in their parents’ footsteps but aren’t necessarily the brightest or hardest working.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7WbeUOEN98EahXgrrA1YHc2Lq4KzXP_6fLXqaoy5WPaBAIJFnKNLiA-gpG3lA0pwrX9EZ9oZ3ZCIFK87nHSxt8YcWp4Nc-XwAw-IvVyQzF3tOnHGVPKAbTbsCnxqwd3UupYB1mogc2KizKlmJbv9hnsUPqJHuvpbbr6bkbR-CHlP2cfNFt3zXrlYvXg/s766/sanmath.pngReplies: @That Would Be Telling
Well, I mean the color white does make a great background for anything.
Some of the commenters would have been even more apoplectic if they were aware of the real (larger) likely gap.Replies: @Truth
LOL,
Twinx, no one can say you’re not a slick one…
On the Asian test question, I speculate that the bottom of the Asian test takes (say bottom 1/2 and bottom quintile) is much higher than the other groups. Often times the poorest and least privileged Asians work much harder than those who are inclined to wallow in the woe ie me/us oppression Olympics (and that includes low performing whites in Appalachia)
A breakdown would be nice by quintile if availableReplies: @Supply and Demand
There are 50+ different ethnicities in China. Most are intelligent. The first sentence is likely true — if not more so — for Indians. The second sentence is not.
As you probably know too, this is not true for India.
that prof is fulla crap 11 years ago would put it at a time when white millenial women were at their prime and all had yella fever, their fellow whitemen were harmless and intovertts inarticulate and generation of nerds so millenial women detested them,this is the only time in white american history where asians had SMV , that jealous prof saw the writing on the wall brougt up a study probably for the age group of xgen and boomers to destroy gold skins psycologically, and whitey ran with it, genZ women also have yella fever i dont know about the latest Gen A. Also asian american millenials are alpha and a confident bunch because of all the attention they were getting from all races of women including asian sluts.
One big secret in the success of asians and dotheads in 2022 America is that their young people live a lot like American White youth did in 1962. Close families, cohesive communities, religious faith (much of it Christian), a lack of drugs. They mostly seem fit, well groomed, well mannered, cleareyed, and optimistic about the future and their places in it.
American White youth these days, for the most part, are a bunch of dispirited flabby infantile mopes, lost in stupid childlike fantasy worlds. Almost all–even “upper” classes–are thoroughly wiggerized, which causes a lot of harm, although it only reaches truly disastrous levels among the proles.
I hate it, but, really, why TF shouldn’t they look down on us? We’re the ones lying down ther