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From the New York Times’ news section:
Why No One Died When a Gunman Opened Fire on the Subway
Luck and poor marksmanship appear to have saved the victims of the subway attack.
By Sarah Maslin Nir
April 14, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ETInside the roughly 750 square feet of a subway car on Tuesday morning, a gunman unleashed a hail of bullets, firing at rush-hour commuters at close range — captive victims.
While 33 bullets were sprayed from his Glock handgun, they wounded only 10 passengers. …
Not one person died.
“I don’t understand the physics of it; he’s feet away from people with a firearm that is designed to kill people — and no one got killed,” said Paul M. Barrett, the author of “Glock: The Rise of America’s Gun.” “I think it is either tremendous luck — or a miracle.” …
Mr. James has been charged with the federal crime of committing a terrorist act on a mass transit system. …
Then the gun jammed. ….
The handgun was on its fourth owner, according to the law enforcement official. It was sold new in Texas in 2006 and resold in Georgia, then in Massachusetts, and then finally to Mr. James, who bought it legally in Columbus, Ohio, in 2011.
… The location of the injuries, in the lower parts of victims’ bodies, could indicate that the man was shooting from his hip, keeping the gun low, Mr. Magill said, and thus throwing off his aim.
“Luckily he wasn’t a skilled person with a gun,” Mr. Magill added.
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Completely wrong analysis. The guy is middle aged and obese, likely suffering from diabetes, hypertension and may be other illnesses. He took great care to shoot at legs so as not to kill but be tried and sentence for a long time in prison for use of firearm so that his healthcare is taken care of. He called the cops himself and said where he is so that they can go and pick up. This strategy has been used my many elderly people who keep shoplifting so they can be arrested and have their medical needs taken care of. One doesn’t need to be “marksman” to kill in a crowded railcar with a 9mm handgun. His talent was using the gun and not kill.
The chance that NYTs uses the phrase “Sailer’s law of mass shootings”……0.0%
Handguns just don’t work that well. Remember the guy a year or two ago who shot his neighbors for dumping snow in his yard? He shot them point blank with a pistol and then ran into his house to get a rifle to finish the job.
A guy out hunting deer with a glock 17 is going to look pretty dumb. The physics are the same everywhere.
And, yeah, he could have caused a lot more mayhem by hiding a rifle with a folding or collapsible stock in backpack or whatever, but I'd add to Sailer's Law blacks aren't very into rifles. Although they are perhaps a bit more into shotguns, which at short ranges are quite deadly but you still have to aim them as the black Washington Navy Yard shooter demonstrated with a death toll of twelve. Note that guy had a Secret security clearance.
I’ve always thought a good solution to gun control is to make you liable for any weapon you buy.
Sell it to anyone — and it gets used in a crime — and we can chase down the chain of ownership and make you liable.
Not much money in there, but get to the paradox of American gun control. We want more guns, we just have to find ways to stop criminals and crazy people from getting them.
Can you make a”tiny house” out of one of these?
Aside from those considerations, I don’t see why you couldn’t make one into a house.
He wasn’t skilled, period.
My new NYT column: “We must close the black-white mass shooter Achievement Gap!”
The survival rate from handgun shootings is about 80% to 90%. I don’t know where the 9mm, which James used, fits into that, but given it’s the most common caliber by far in shootings the above range sounds about right. So ten survivors out of ten people shot is not improbable.
There was a good, serious study analyzing police shooting data for how many shots it took to stop a bad guy by caliber, which found that, in practice, there is no one-shot round. Even .45 when used was usually used 2-3 times. So in planning you should expect to shoot a minimum of two times.
The guy was a Grade A fuck-up. Really no mystery here.
The New York media has been celebrating “Zack” the Syrian immigrant who saved New York.
Zack seems like a decent guy, but turns out Ol’ Frank called himself in. He even told the police to hurry up because his cellphone battery was dying…. ‘Meet me at the McDonalds.’ Will Frank James receive the 50K reward money for his tip on himself?
https://nypost.com/2022/04/13/brooklyn-shooting-suspect-frank-james-in-police-custody/
Consider not even worrying what the NYT has to say. Have they said anything about this?
In Nebraska, an ammunition crate in the back of a moving Humvee spontaneously started combusting (sort of like how the ammunition on the Moskva just sort of caught on fire). So the Air Force closed the highway. They closed forty miles of Highway 71. That was four days ago. Man, that Humvee can fit so much 5.56 in the back.
https://panhandle.newschannelnebraska.com/story/46274425/section-of-highway-71-westbound-highway-88-remain-closed-tuesday-morning
It’s all too heterogenized and contextual. I remember a /k/ thread (with a lot of illustrations and links — /k/ is the most serious, rule-respecting, and properly cited and illustrated board on 4chan) with a semi-big city coroner’s assistant, talking about how most of his work was the rich cultural heritage of baketball-Americans. The thread had started on the topic of effectiveness by handgun caliber. He was spoiling with his true yet distorted emperical experience that — going by real-world heat of the moment shootings — .380ACP was by far the deadliest size. Indeed, most of his cadavers were done in by 3-4 shots of .380ACP, but that was because of availability and frequency, not because of the power and deathzone wideness of .380.
There was a good, serious study analyzing police shooting data for how many shots it took to stop a bad guy by caliber, which found that, in practice, there is no one-shot round. Even .45 when used was usually used 2-3 times. So in planning you should expect to shoot a minimum of two times.
“Luckily, he wasn’t very bright, was not conscientious, was a coward so he didn’t stick around to fulfill his destiny, and so will be a happy parasite for the rest of his days, which are traits overwhelmingly characteristic of the too many American black men.”
There. I fixed it for her.
I mean, in fairness, he was wearing a full face gas mask and had set off a smoke bomb that enveloped the whole train car.
I am so sick and tired of those who attribute an ‘escape from mortal danger’ to the element of luck. One could just as illogically claim that it was [bad] luck that put them in the bullet’s path to begin with. And what are we to make of someone who hit the deck but was then trampled on in the subsequent chaos? Was he lucky or unlucky? Meanwhile, the bill for someone who, luckily, safely ducked might have been paid by the unlucky guy behind him.
the federal crime of committing a terrorist act on a mass transit system.
Really.
walksprances.“Will Frank James receive the 50K reward money for his tip on himself?”
Has anyone collected statistics on offering reward money for solving crimes? How often does a reward offer result in an arrest? a conviction? Have reward offerers been sued for failing to pay the reward? Links to articles about this are welcome.
https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/default/files/202-Rosenbaum_et_al.pdf
Mostly non-violent mass murder.
It was a mostly non-violent attempted mass muder.
It’s not a mystery at all, in fact it’s pretty basic. If you’re hip-firing and/or not using the sights, it’s very easy to miss at close range. In fact, the sights on a handgun are regulated to take muzzle flip into consideration — the muzzle basically flips to the point of aim when you discharge the weapon.
In addition to that, if you don’t have a stable, two-handed grip on the pistol and you are jerking the trigger hard, it’s easy to yank the muzzle down as you pull the trigger, sending the projectile toward the ground or toward the target’s legs rather than toward his vital organs.
Finally, the caliber and type of ammo matters. If you are shooting cheap 9mm 115 grain fully jacketed round nose ball, the probability that a hit is going to cause fatal damage is far, far less than what it would be if you were using premium expanding self-defense ammo.
The guy was a Grade A fuck-up. Really no mystery here.
The New York media has been celebrating "Zack" the Syrian immigrant who saved New York.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnUP5U2D4mk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gwyaR_3k8A
Zack seems like a decent guy, but turns out Ol' Frank called himself in. He even told the police to hurry up because his cellphone battery was dying.... 'Meet me at the McDonalds.' Will Frank James receive the 50K reward money for his tip on himself?
https://nypost.com/2022/04/13/brooklyn-shooting-suspect-frank-james-in-police-custody/Replies: @JimB
Yes, and he can use it to hire a lawyer.
https://www.yelp.com/user_details?userid=ekmVIDErtxjzzQrZaKgZYw
Lol. I was going to tweet that they should ask Steve Sailer.
I think blacks just see shooting off a gun at people as a means of self-expression.
Details like aiming don’t enter their head. The thing is, too, those automatic pistols come with a pretty stiff trigger pull; they don’t want some cop blowing a hole in his thigh trying to draw his gun.
So you gotta practice. If you don’t, you’ll pull the pistol off target as you pull the trigger.
But don’t tell them that. It’s fine with me if blacks literally couldn’t hit the lid of a garbage can from twenty feet away.
NYC after destroying its gun culture did a lot of crazy things like mandate FMJ ammo and a very heavy trigger for the Glocks they issued to their police. They did eventually fix the former problem, but that trigger along with, again, destroying their gun culture are suspected to be part of why they shoot so poorly in "serious social interactions."
That brings up another thought about Sailer's Law: lots of blacks, even if they had the inclination to practice, live in urban areas where there are few if any shooting ranges they can use. I hear anecdotally some obvious gang bangers do go to ranges and practice, but these are obviously a different type, including being able to interact with other people politely and non-threateningly at such an inherently dangerous venue.Replies: @Colin Wright
the federal crime of committing a terrorist act on a mass transit system.
Really.Replies: @Reg Cæsar
People want the perpetrators punished. Some states, as we have seen over the past 2 months, are no longer willing to do so. Yes, this is far from optimal, but for now the alternative is that the shooter
walksprances.So what is Sailer’s Law? Crappy article doesn’t even say what it is. Sailer must not know what his own law is. 3/10
Has anyone collected statistics on offering reward money for solving crimes? How often does a reward offer result in an arrest? a conviction? Have reward offerers been sued for failing to pay the reward? Links to articles about this are welcome.Replies: @anonymouseperson, @res
Is the reward money taxable income?
I thought Glocks didn’t jam.
The location of the injuries, in the lower parts of victims’ bodies, could indicate that the man was shooting from his hip, keeping the gun low, Mr. Magill said, and thus throwing off his aim.
Not only throwing off his aim, but probably causing the famously reliable Glock to jam. A semiautomatic pistol has to be gripped firmly for the recoil-operated action to cycle properly. If you’re “limp-wristing” it, as by holding it with a cocked wrist, the slide isn’t going to fully cycle and you’ll get a stovepipe jam, where the empty case is not fully ejected, preventing the next round from being chambered. People who train regularly can clear such a jam in seconds, but fortunately James was not that sort of person.
Sailer’s Law of Mass Shootings was not quite invented by Steve. This pattern was a well-known fact long before then.
Here is an episode of NYPD Blue from 1996 :
Det. Bobby Simone to Lt. Arthur Fancy :
“We have two dead, seven wounded. At least five different shooters.”
So this ratio was widely enough known that writers for a TV show incorporated the ratio in question into a script in 1996.
Even if the NYT actually knew what Sailer’s Law is they would never dare print it.
Allegedly, Blackbeard’s favorite game was to blow out the candle and then fire around the table. This was known as ‘anyone who gets shot deserved it.’ Perhaps Mr. James was just a Blackbeard fan.
Tiny houses are often built to be towable without hassling with oversize load requirements. That keeps them about 8”-8.5” wide. Depending on the subway car design, it might be too wide. Also, most “tiny houses” are pretty small. Even 350 square feet is kind of large.
Aside from those considerations, I don’t see why you couldn’t make one into a house.
That is true, while all the good reporters (at NYT and other mainstream media outlets) furtively read Sailer every day.
Sailer’s important role is to observe and then clearly state the obvious. So, yes, tv script writers were vaguely aware of Sailer’s Law before Sailer stated it clearly.
Details like aiming don't enter their head. The thing is, too, those automatic pistols come with a pretty stiff trigger pull; they don't want some cop blowing a hole in his thigh trying to draw his gun.
So you gotta practice. If you don't, you'll pull the pistol off target as you pull the trigger.
But don't tell them that. It's fine with me if blacks literally couldn't hit the lid of a garbage can from twenty feet away.Replies: @NickG, @That Would Be Telling
Most people untrained and practiced with a handgun couldn’t. Glocks are easy to operate but pretty much all handguns, including Glocks, are quite difficult to shoot well.
People who don’t know much about guns don’t realize that you need good technique and continuous practice to make them effective weapons. Some groups are less likely to put the time, effort, and expense into firearms instruction and training… which probably explains much of Sailer’s Law.
Heather Mac Donald on city journal criticises the NYT for its reporting of this case, but also criticises the NYPD for describing the suspect as “dark skinned” as if it may lead to south asians being dragged in. She must not have seen “The Wire” where it is pretty clear that the cop description “dark skinned” means dark skinned african american and “light skinned” means light skinned african american.
Yep. Three shots fired, three dead: White gunman. Thirty three shots fired, ten wounded and none dead: Black gunman. It is like 95% accurate in predicting the gunman.
It’s called flinching. It’s a common problem with handguns especially snappy rounds like .40 or 10mm. Happens when you dip the muzzle in anticipation of the recoil. Once you develop a flinch it takes a couple hundred rounds to cure it. Competent handgun shooting takes practice. I’ve never seen a black guy at the gun range – hence Sailer’s Law.
Sell it to anyone -- and it gets used in a crime -- and we can chase down the chain of ownership and make you liable.
Not much money in there, but get to the paradox of American gun control. We want more guns, we just have to find ways to stop criminals and crazy people from getting them.Replies: @Anonymous, @Legba
They tried that and USC shot it down
Here are his yelp reviews from when he lived in Uptown, former haunt of @Isteve and many other washed up desperados:
https://www.yelp.com/user_details?userid=ekmVIDErtxjzzQrZaKgZYw
Glad he got caught, when RaHoWa comes we need expert marksmen dindoos at the ready!
They absolutely can. I experienced a jam the first time. If you don’t have a good solid grip on it when you fire, e.g. shooting from the hip, pretty decent chance of a jam
Or maybe he’s just “crazy.”
Maybe he doesn’t know about the femoral artery, one reason my Every Day Carry includes a Combat Application Tourniquet (C-A-T), something Aesop of the Raconteur Report reported not long ago saved a life of someone the police delivered to his ER. Beware of counterfeits, most certainly avoid Amazon.com Get it from here or I see Grainger.com is also selling it, of course for more, but they’re trustworthy for “you bet your life” stuff.
If he’s got diabetes, I seriously wonder how prisons help control that adequately. And “embrace the healing power of ‘and’,” your hypothesis is not inconsistent with his verified hate.
A guy out hunting deer with a glock 17 is going to look pretty dumb. The physics are the same everywhere.Replies: @That Would Be Telling
Handguns work great as a weapon you can always have with you. As Mel Tappan pointed out, it’s like a first aid kit, not what you’d chose if you knew you were going to have a “serious social interaction” but one you can for example use to fight your way to your rifle.
And, yeah, he could have caused a lot more mayhem by hiding a rifle with a folding or collapsible stock in backpack or whatever, but I’d add to Sailer’s Law blacks aren’t very into rifles. Although they are perhaps a bit more into shotguns, which at short ranges are quite deadly but you still have to aim them as the black Washington Navy Yard shooter demonstrated with a death toll of twelve. Note that guy had a Secret security clearance.
Details like aiming don't enter their head. The thing is, too, those automatic pistols come with a pretty stiff trigger pull; they don't want some cop blowing a hole in his thigh trying to draw his gun.
So you gotta practice. If you don't, you'll pull the pistol off target as you pull the trigger.
But don't tell them that. It's fine with me if blacks literally couldn't hit the lid of a garbage can from twenty feet away.Replies: @NickG, @That Would Be Telling
I don’t think it’s so much the draw being dangerous, in the case of a Glock or any other striker fired handgun holstering is a lot more dangerous since there’s no hammer to feel or stop if something is catching the trigger, but that it became the generic replacement for revolvers, which in double action have a heavy trigger.
NYC after destroying its gun culture did a lot of crazy things like mandate FMJ ammo and a very heavy trigger for the Glocks they issued to their police. They did eventually fix the former problem, but that trigger along with, again, destroying their gun culture are suspected to be part of why they shoot so poorly in “serious social interactions.”
That brings up another thought about Sailer’s Law: lots of blacks, even if they had the inclination to practice, live in urban areas where there are few if any shooting ranges they can use. I hear anecdotally some obvious gang bangers do go to ranges and practice, but these are obviously a different type, including being able to interact with other people politely and non-threateningly at such an inherently dangerous venue.
That's an interesting thought. Perhaps somebody (not me) could dredge up statistics indicating the marksmanship for urban Hispanics. That would suggest how much validity there might be to your theory.
It’s a Vernal-Equinox miracle… Ghost guns work in mysterious ways
Sell it to anyone -- and it gets used in a crime -- and we can chase down the chain of ownership and make you liable.
Not much money in there, but get to the paradox of American gun control. We want more guns, we just have to find ways to stop criminals and crazy people from getting them.Replies: @Anonymous, @Legba
Another great idea is to just grab random people off the street and charge them with the crime.
Perhaps, yes.
Steve, it is noteworthy that while you have enunciated the “Sailer’s law”, you have refused to explicitly corroborate it with the specific causative explanation (low IQ = low g = bad marksmanship).
Have censorship pressures gotten to your ability to fund raise?
NYC after destroying its gun culture did a lot of crazy things like mandate FMJ ammo and a very heavy trigger for the Glocks they issued to their police. They did eventually fix the former problem, but that trigger along with, again, destroying their gun culture are suspected to be part of why they shoot so poorly in "serious social interactions."
That brings up another thought about Sailer's Law: lots of blacks, even if they had the inclination to practice, live in urban areas where there are few if any shooting ranges they can use. I hear anecdotally some obvious gang bangers do go to ranges and practice, but these are obviously a different type, including being able to interact with other people politely and non-threateningly at such an inherently dangerous venue.Replies: @Colin Wright
‘…That brings up another thought about Sailer’s Law: lots of blacks, even if they had the inclination to practice, live in urban areas where there are few if any shooting ranges they can use. I hear anecdotally some obvious gang bangers do go to ranges and practice, but these are obviously a different type, including being able to interact with other people politely and non-threateningly at such an inherently dangerous venue.’
That’s an interesting thought. Perhaps somebody (not me) could dredge up statistics indicating the marksmanship for urban Hispanics. That would suggest how much validity there might be to your theory.
I’ve articulated a number of likely causes.
Sailer’s Law of Mass shootings: If there are more killed than wounded, then the shooter is likely not black. If there are more wounded than killed, then the shooter is likely black.
Has anyone collected statistics on offering reward money for solving crimes? How often does a reward offer result in an arrest? a conviction? Have reward offerers been sued for failing to pay the reward? Links to articles about this are welcome.Replies: @anonymouseperson, @res
Long 1987 piece about this.
https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/default/files/202-Rosenbaum_et_al.pdf
Yes, I agree 100% and would add that a clean, well-oiled gun works better than one that has been neglected since 2005. The fact the pistol jammed during the subway shooting suggests to me that Frank is too D-U-M-B to know how to field strip, clean and reassemble a semi-automatic pistol.
The Trojans are armed? Who knew…
The good Lord was smiling on people that day and the guy holding the ghetto blaster ended up in jail. Maybe other angry people will look upon this man’s works and reconsider their ways and intentions. There are those who walk among us whose hearts and minds are full of evil, anger, and hatred. Let us pray that the Lord can reach them in their darkness and show them the truth, the way, and the light. Amen.
Was probably doing that one-handed sideway rap video thing instead of a 2 handed combat stance.And lack of maintenance. Hat tip; Anthony Cumia.
10 shot, 0 killed in South Carolina mall:
You confuse a (scientific) law with a theory. A law is merely an observation, but one that is seen to always hold true. The law of gravitation – F=m1*m2/d^2 – doesn’t explain gravity and isn’t intended to. It simply describes what we see.