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The New Normal: Homicide Deaths Through 11/2021
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The CDC WONDER database releases provisional cause of death data with a six month lag, so we still don’t have good data for all of 2021 because December is missing much. So I’ve graphed homicide deaths up through November 2021:

Last year appears to have been a continuation of the post-George Floyd plateau: the new normal, as it were.

 
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  1. Can you do a graph for NYC?

    Did the homicide rate go up there as much as the rest of the country?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @ginger bread man

    Do yur own homework marv

    , @fish
    @ginger bread man

    Can you do a graph for NYC?


    How bout one for Hotlanta...



    Atlanta Subway customer shoots dead female worker for putting too much MAYO on their sandwich

     
    ...cuz this is the ISteviest thing ever.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10957183/One-employee-shot-dead-injured-customer-opens-fire-Subway-store-Atlanta.html
  2. For racial crime stats, how does CDC WONDER compare to MAGIC NIBRS ?

  3. These are absolute numbers, right? What would this look like when adjusted for percentage of total population?

  4. The CDC WONDER database releases provisional cause of death data with a six month lag,…

    When you say a six month lag – what do you mean by that – is that reflected in that graph or not? The graph shows an uptick in homicides in February 2020, about four months before the beginning of the Summer of George.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    I mean they won't have reasonable numbers for December 2021 until July 2022, so I'm ending the trendlines with November 2021.

    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can't expect to be kept up to date.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @JR Ewing

  5. Thanks for this. A useful if somewhat obscure* antidote to the endless mass media quotations of crime rates comparing this year to last year.

    We need to compare with 2019, which is the last year before our society’s insanity kicked into top gear.

    * Obscure only in the sense that the MSM, Social Media and Big Tech won’t be showing it. To anyone.

  6. It looks like Hispanic is a bit elevated, too.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
    @Not Raul

    A civilization cannot thrive when a segment of the population regularly murders, but after sixty years of catering to negroes, what is to be done?

    I get the impression sometimes that PTB have decided to let negroes run amok until the majority of whites conclude that negroes cannot be here. Factor in a food, fuel and currency crisis and the problem may sort itself out. One can hope.

  7. @Mr. Anon

    The CDC WONDER database releases provisional cause of death data with a six month lag,...
     
    When you say a six month lag - what do you mean by that - is that reflected in that graph or not? The graph shows an uptick in homicides in February 2020, about four months before the beginning of the Summer of George.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    I mean they won’t have reasonable numbers for December 2021 until July 2022, so I’m ending the trendlines with November 2021.

    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can’t expect to be kept up to date.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can't be the death of George Floyd, as he didn't die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George - in terms of the murder rate - wasn't so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Cortes, @Diversity Heretic, @Ebony Obelisk, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @AnotherDad

    , @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Steve Sailer


    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can’t expect to be kept up to date.
     
    You just gave me the idea that we could have baseball-style trading cards for black would-be murderers and murderers with categories like shots on target percentage.

    Replies: @Known Fact

    , @JR Ewing
    @Steve Sailer


    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can’t expect to be kept up to date.
     
    I get the joke, but to be fair, there are only 15 MLB baseball games happening in the US on any given day and there are just under a hundred thousand municipalities and counties being staffed by government workers who are on their break right now.
  8. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    I mean they won't have reasonable numbers for December 2021 until July 2022, so I'm ending the trendlines with November 2021.

    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can't expect to be kept up to date.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @JR Ewing

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can’t be the death of George Floyd, as he didn’t die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George – in terms of the murder rate – wasn’t so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    As I've been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    Replies: @Cagey Beast, @ic1000, @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    , @Cortes
    @Mr. Anon

    Perhaps it’s due to presentation of the graph data in linear form. In a Guardian piece of last year, this part stands out:

    “Homicide rates were higher during every month of 2020 – even before pandemic-related shutdowns started in March, the analysis found. But there was also a “structural break” in the data in June, indicating “a large, statistically significant increase” in the homicide rate, around the same time as the mass protests that followed the murder of George Floyd.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rate-homcides-explained

    In other words, it may be that a modest rise, or series of small increments was underway already, but if presented in monthly columnar format the spike would be more obviously relatable to the Floyd death. The linear format suggests a surge when it may have been a spike.

    , @Diversity Heretic
    @Mr. Anon

    I noticed the same thing, but I think that the increase that began in February 2020 was seasonal; there were similar increases in 2018 and 2019. The number of homicides did not, however, level off in the summer months of 2020 as they did in the two preceding years. Thus the "George Floyd effect" hypothesis remains plausible.

    , @Ebony Obelisk
    @Mr. Anon

    Access to guns

    Right wing crazies being given the microphone

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @nebulafox

    , @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Mr. Anon


    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can’t be the death of George Floyd, as he didn’t die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George – in terms of the murder rate – wasn’t so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.
     
    Maybe I'm misreading it, but black homicides were in a typical trough in January of 2020 according to the graph - yes, they were ticking up (it seems like the first of the year is the trough of every yearly cycle even in the heavier years of 2021 and it looks like 2022 - maybe it's too cold in Northern cities for loose gunplay), but the uptick was within the seasonal norm for the graph. Floyd dies on May 25 of 2020, which would be roughly halfway between 1/20 and 7/20 on the graph, and black homicides at that point are more of less where you'd expect them to be (trending upwards but within the historical norm for the graph at that point). It's just that May of 2020 the trend doesn't abate and continues to build and build to a nearly 50% increase over previous years by July of 2020.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @AnotherDad
    @Mr. Anon

    I don't really see 2020 February or March--look pretty normal to me. But the black rate in April is up and touch, and May is up considerably. So the pandemic did boost black springtime "exuberance", a bit even before Saint George OD'd because of white supremacy.

    This summer will tell the tale. What is the "new normal"?

  9. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can't be the death of George Floyd, as he didn't die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George - in terms of the murder rate - wasn't so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Cortes, @Diversity Heretic, @Ebony Obelisk, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @AnotherDad

    As I’ve been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    @Steve Sailer

    It could be worthwhile for someone to data mine Black social media to see if the mood changed over that time. Building and updating a list of all their terms for "kill" could be a Sisyphean task though.

    , @ic1000
    @Steve Sailer

    Mr. Anon said upthread:

    > The graph [in this post] shows an uptick in homicides in February 2020, about four months before the beginning of the Summer of George.

    Steve replied:

    > As I’ve been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    This graph and the two companion graphs in Steve's Takimag J'Accuse! piece from May '22 are fine-grained enough to count months. As Mr. Anon noted, 202o trendline begins shooting up in March. However, February is every year's low point -- low-energy guys huddling around the coal grate rather than emptying the magazine at a funeral or flipping the car.

    April 2020 to May 2020 is the Big Jump, which continues up to its high in June 2020.

    St. Floyd was crucified asphyxiated for our sins on May 25th. So he, alone, can't fully explain the ascendance to the New Mayhem Normal.

    Contra Steve's comment, My Mark One Eyeball says that 2019 was a typical post-Ferguson year for both homicides and traffic fatalities.

    Replies: @recently_based

    , @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Steve Sailer


    As I’ve been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.
     
    Some of this is chicken-or-egg stuff, but I think it was roughly the middle of the first Trump term when the existing pro-crime "decarceral" movement was supercharged as a left wing/Democratic Party base reaction to Trump and started bearing fruit in terms of the appointment or election of so-called "Soros DAs." I think the decades-long trend of reduced violent crime started its reversal in the second Obama term post Trayvon Martin/Ferguson. That's when white liberals started to abandon any semblance of good sense because they felt that the "Emerging Democratic Majority" meant that Democrats would not need working class white voters to win the Presidency.

    So, for example, Larry Krasner was elected in November 0f 2017 and took office in January of 2018. Murders were already trending up in Philadelphia when he was elected in line with the trend of the second Obama term, but they accelerated after he was sworn in. So, in my view, Krasner was both a symptom of an existing pro-crime movement adding to a year over year increase in violent crimes, as well as a cause of increased crime year over year after his assumption of office.
  10. Is it possible to divide each number of homicides for each group by the US population number for each group, thereby making them on an equivalent percentage scale and so easier to interpret? Even if the population number for each group is only updated annually (or even fixed for the entire time span) that would not matter much.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Peter Johnson

    Here are graphs through 2020 to homicides and traffic fatalities through 2020 per capita:

    https://www.takimag.com/article/it-seemed-like-a-good-idea-at-the-time/

    They didn't change much in 2021.

  11. Don’t worry, we’re going to get more gun control laws; which won’t be enforced against Black and Hispanic people, because racist.

  12. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    As I've been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    Replies: @Cagey Beast, @ic1000, @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    It could be worthwhile for someone to data mine Black social media to see if the mood changed over that time. Building and updating a list of all their terms for “kill” could be a Sisyphean task though.

  13. anonymous[306] • Disclaimer says:

    Ironically – and with great importance for gun control debates – the USA still has one of the lowest murder rates in the Americas, even with these spikes in numbers

    Back in 2019, the USA had the 4th lowest murder rate in the Americas, only Canada (also with lots of guns), Chile and Cuba were better … Even places in Latin America people think of as ‘safer’, like Costa Rica, had 2.5x or higher multiples of the USA murder rate. Mexico 3x, etc.

    The moral seems to be this: Once societies are significantly ‘multi-cultural’ and race-mixed – uniquely the Americas – they are generally significantly violent, and you NEED THE GUNS in hands of honest people to keep the murder numbers down.

    A huge amount of Latin American murders are via knives and clubs as well as illegal guns. You have no defence against a small group of thugs with just wood and metal, if your family has no guns. So gun-control shills talk about ‘gun murders’ instead of just ‘murders’ generally, which tell a different story.

    Brasil had been something like 4x-5x the US murder rate, but murder rates there went DOWN as Bolsonaro made gun ownership a little easier.

    Latin American murder rates are higher than most of Africa, aside from ‘multi-cultural’ South Africa, the only place outside of the Americas with several of the world’s most murderous cities. Tho rapes and thefts are high, superstitious Africans apparently fear being haunted by the ghosts of anyone they kill. USA blacks, ‘Christianised’ or ‘Islamicised’, have had this salutary fear pressed out of them.

    This is what needs to be trumpeted in all those ‘gun control’ debates.

    • Replies: @Hapalong Cassidy
    @anonymous

    I’ve never bought into the published stats that murder rates are higher in Latin America than Africa. I think that most of Africa has dubious record-keeping ability, which tends to understate the true number of homicides. South Africa being relatively more advanced than most other African nations means they keep more accurate records - hence their very high murder rate.

    Replies: @James Speaks, @Colin Wright, @Reg Cæsar

    , @Anonymous
    @anonymous

    Coming your way fast.

    # mass immigration

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @anonymous


    The moral seems to be this: Once societies are significantly ‘multi-cultural’ and race-mixed – uniquely the Americas – they are generally significantly violent, and you NEED THE GUNS in hands of honest people to keep the murder numbers down.
     
    In some respects it is true that it is fairer to compare the US to Brazil than to compare it to European nations.

    It is all a question of image, because traditionally the US has been considered to be an honorary European nation, whereas contemporary US is no more a European nation than Venezuela is a province of Spain.

    But the US has this image of being the land of Carousel, where homicides hardly happen except as crimes of passion, but the truth is that it is and always has been the wild west. Even the Supreme Court thinks we should go back to the eighteenths century and be prepared to fight a duel at the drop of a hat.

    Not June 2022.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khL3AVmPj24

  14. @Peter Johnson
    Is it possible to divide each number of homicides for each group by the US population number for each group, thereby making them on an equivalent percentage scale and so easier to interpret? Even if the population number for each group is only updated annually (or even fixed for the entire time span) that would not matter much.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Here are graphs through 2020 to homicides and traffic fatalities through 2020 per capita:

    https://www.takimag.com/article/it-seemed-like-a-good-idea-at-the-time/

    They didn’t change much in 2021.

  15. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can't be the death of George Floyd, as he didn't die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George - in terms of the murder rate - wasn't so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Cortes, @Diversity Heretic, @Ebony Obelisk, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @AnotherDad

    Perhaps it’s due to presentation of the graph data in linear form. In a Guardian piece of last year, this part stands out:

    “Homicide rates were higher during every month of 2020 – even before pandemic-related shutdowns started in March, the analysis found. But there was also a “structural break” in the data in June, indicating “a large, statistically significant increase” in the homicide rate, around the same time as the mass protests that followed the murder of George Floyd.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rate-homcides-explained

    In other words, it may be that a modest rise, or series of small increments was underway already, but if presented in monthly columnar format the spike would be more obviously relatable to the Floyd death. The linear format suggests a surge when it may have been a spike.

  16. OT

    Lots of stuff for Steve on ZeroHedge today. You might start by looking at this:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-06-24/defense-west-white-supremacy-and-anti-asian-attacks-debunked

    The “white man bad, muh white supremacy” narrative is out of control. It is ultra-simplistic, tribalistic, and panders to the lowest-common-denominator.

  17. • Thanks: Cortes
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @Sean

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWMLWenUsAAtw3i.jpg

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian, @Sean

  18. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can't be the death of George Floyd, as he didn't die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George - in terms of the murder rate - wasn't so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Cortes, @Diversity Heretic, @Ebony Obelisk, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @AnotherDad

    I noticed the same thing, but I think that the increase that began in February 2020 was seasonal; there were similar increases in 2018 and 2019. The number of homicides did not, however, level off in the summer months of 2020 as they did in the two preceding years. Thus the “George Floyd effect” hypothesis remains plausible.

  19. OT — I was completely wrong about abortion enabling Democrat energy in the midterms. I have now seen several online reports plus actual elbow-knocking away from keyboard.* Nobody cares. Everybody cares about the price of gas. Everybody cares about groceries going up. Some people care about Eastern Europe beyond the pornographic thrill of selflessly sacrificing hapless starving middle-aged Ukrainians. Nobody is mobilizing over the enablement of Cool Cat Wine Aunts who were never getting married anyway. Nobody is even writing or calling anybody.

    *Little Lou’s, hottest chicken in the mitten state? So I guess we don’t have hot chicken in the mitten state. I miss Rosie O’Grady’s dry rub wings, which defeated a Buffalo Wild Wings location across the street without much of a fight and which they inexplicably dropped.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @J.Ross

    >Nobody is mobilizing over the enablement of Cool Cat Wine Aunts who were never getting married anyway

    So you're admitting this decision is going to lead to a bunch more births out of wedlock? Good to know the pro-life side is making America better!

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    , @Stan Adams
    @J.Ross

    In retrospect, the leak backfired on the left. It gave everyone an extra month to process the implications of the decision. The actual ruling was anticlimactic.

  20. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can't be the death of George Floyd, as he didn't die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George - in terms of the murder rate - wasn't so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Cortes, @Diversity Heretic, @Ebony Obelisk, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @AnotherDad

    Access to guns

    Right wing crazies being given the microphone

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    @Ebony Obelisk

    Are you saying that the africans in America are more homicidal than white people and that the africans in America shouldn't have access to guns?

    , @nebulafox
    @Ebony Obelisk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWKJmbmOOf4

  21. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    As I've been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    Replies: @Cagey Beast, @ic1000, @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    Mr. Anon said upthread:

    > The graph [in this post] shows an uptick in homicides in February 2020, about four months before the beginning of the Summer of George.

    Steve replied:

    > As I’ve been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    This graph and the two companion graphs in Steve’s Takimag J’Accuse! piece from May ’22 are fine-grained enough to count months. As Mr. Anon noted, 202o trendline begins shooting up in March. However, February is every year’s low point — low-energy guys huddling around the coal grate rather than emptying the magazine at a funeral or flipping the car.

    April 2020 to May 2020 is the Big Jump, which continues up to its high in June 2020.

    St. Floyd was crucified asphyxiated for our sins on May 25th. So he, alone, can’t fully explain the ascendance to the New Mayhem Normal.

    Contra Steve’s comment, My Mark One Eyeball says that 2019 was a typical post-Ferguson year for both homicides and traffic fatalities.

    • Replies: @recently_based
    @ic1000

    I was about to make exactly the same comment. Any normal statistical time-series test would not identify any month through April 2020 as an anomaly through that date, and would certainly identify My 2020 as the point of the regime change.

  22. @anonymous
    Ironically - and with great importance for gun control debates - the USA still has one of the lowest murder rates in the Americas, even with these spikes in numbers

    Back in 2019, the USA had the 4th lowest murder rate in the Americas, only Canada (also with lots of guns), Chile and Cuba were better ... Even places in Latin America people think of as 'safer', like Costa Rica, had 2.5x or higher multiples of the USA murder rate. Mexico 3x, etc.

    The moral seems to be this: Once societies are significantly 'multi-cultural' and race-mixed - uniquely the Americas - they are generally significantly violent, and you NEED THE GUNS in hands of honest people to keep the murder numbers down.

    A huge amount of Latin American murders are via knives and clubs as well as illegal guns. You have no defence against a small group of thugs with just wood and metal, if your family has no guns. So gun-control shills talk about 'gun murders' instead of just 'murders' generally, which tell a different story.

    Brasil had been something like 4x-5x the US murder rate, but murder rates there went DOWN as Bolsonaro made gun ownership a little easier.

    Latin American murder rates are higher than most of Africa, aside from 'multi-cultural' South Africa, the only place outside of the Americas with several of the world's most murderous cities. Tho rapes and thefts are high, superstitious Africans apparently fear being haunted by the ghosts of anyone they kill. USA blacks, 'Christianised' or 'Islamicised', have had this salutary fear pressed out of them.

    This is what needs to be trumpeted in all those 'gun control' debates.

    Replies: @Hapalong Cassidy, @Anonymous, @Jonathan Mason

    I’ve never bought into the published stats that murder rates are higher in Latin America than Africa. I think that most of Africa has dubious record-keeping ability, which tends to understate the true number of homicides. South Africa being relatively more advanced than most other African nations means they keep more accurate records – hence their very high murder rate.

    • Agree: Colin Wright, Charon
    • Replies: @James Speaks
    @Hapalong Cassidy

    Habeas Corpus doesn’t work in Africa. Think about it.

    , @Colin Wright
    @Hapalong Cassidy

    '...I think that most of Africa has dubious record-keeping ability, which tends to understate the true number of homicides. South Africa being relatively more advanced than most other African nations means they keep more accurate records – hence their very high murder rate.'

    I wouldn't be surprised if you're right. At the same time, traditional social structures may not have collapsed in much of black Africa, so perhaps their homicide rates really aren't all that high.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Hapalong Cassidy


    I’ve never bought into the published stats that murder rates are higher in Latin America than Africa.
     
    Outside South Africa and several exploding capital cities, Africa is like the rural South. There is tighter social control. They know how to keep their miscreants in line.

    The problems come when you take such people out of their environment and place them in the looser white man's world. Indeed, the same is probably true of Central America and Brazil.

    They don't "hate our freedoms", but they can't handle them, either.

    Replies: @J.Ross

  23. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can't be the death of George Floyd, as he didn't die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George - in terms of the murder rate - wasn't so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Cortes, @Diversity Heretic, @Ebony Obelisk, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @AnotherDad

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can’t be the death of George Floyd, as he didn’t die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George – in terms of the murder rate – wasn’t so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    Maybe I’m misreading it, but black homicides were in a typical trough in January of 2020 according to the graph – yes, they were ticking up (it seems like the first of the year is the trough of every yearly cycle even in the heavier years of 2021 and it looks like 2022 – maybe it’s too cold in Northern cities for loose gunplay), but the uptick was within the seasonal norm for the graph. Floyd dies on May 25 of 2020, which would be roughly halfway between 1/20 and 7/20 on the graph, and black homicides at that point are more of less where you’d expect them to be (trending upwards but within the historical norm for the graph at that point). It’s just that May of 2020 the trend doesn’t abate and continues to build and build to a nearly 50% increase over previous years by July of 2020.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Alec Leamas (working from home)


    Floyd dies on May 25 of 2020, which would be roughly halfway between 1/20 and 7/20 on the graph, and black homicides at that point are more of less where you’d expect them to be (trending upwards but within the historical norm for the graph at that point).
     
    The end of May isn't halfway between, it's almost at one horizontal division before the peak at 7/20, and the number at that time is already at least 90% of the peak. Nothing about 2020's numbers is amiss (compared to the two earlier years) until about early April, but then it really takes off. There may be a little bump due to the Summer-of-George effect or it may just be the continuation of the already prominent trend that started in April. What this graph pretty clearly indicates is that the abnormally large number of black homicides beginning in 2020 cannot be chalked up to the whole St. Floyd insanity of the summer of 2020.

    I have no idea what the cause might be. Did the cops just get really hands-off when it came to policing on account of the 'rona?
  24. Trivia: on Stevie Wonder’s album “Hotter than July” there is no song called hotter than july.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    True, but "It's hotter than July" is the second line of lyric from "Master Blaster (Jammin')".

    When it comes to blind black men, Stevie Wonder's a'ight, but Clayton Bigsby is the best.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HcQ87RFN5k

  25. Yeah, Washington DC is like it was in 1992, the peak of the Warren Court crime explosion: blacks are slaughtering each other in Southeast, and in leafy third-alphabet Northwest, whites are worried about stuff that might be stolen from their cars.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @Henry Canaday

    In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k).

    Replies: @Henry Canaday, @Mike Tre, @Twinkie

  26. Normalise it by share of the population and see how dramatic the disparity really is.

  27. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    As I've been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    Replies: @Cagey Beast, @ic1000, @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    As I’ve been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    Some of this is chicken-or-egg stuff, but I think it was roughly the middle of the first Trump term when the existing pro-crime “decarceral” movement was supercharged as a left wing/Democratic Party base reaction to Trump and started bearing fruit in terms of the appointment or election of so-called “Soros DAs.” I think the decades-long trend of reduced violent crime started its reversal in the second Obama term post Trayvon Martin/Ferguson. That’s when white liberals started to abandon any semblance of good sense because they felt that the “Emerging Democratic Majority” meant that Democrats would not need working class white voters to win the Presidency.

    So, for example, Larry Krasner was elected in November 0f 2017 and took office in January of 2018. Murders were already trending up in Philadelphia when he was elected in line with the trend of the second Obama term, but they accelerated after he was sworn in. So, in my view, Krasner was both a symptom of an existing pro-crime movement adding to a year over year increase in violent crimes, as well as a cause of increased crime year over year after his assumption of office.

  28. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    I mean they won't have reasonable numbers for December 2021 until July 2022, so I'm ending the trendlines with November 2021.

    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can't expect to be kept up to date.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @JR Ewing

    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can’t expect to be kept up to date.

    You just gave me the idea that we could have baseball-style trading cards for black would-be murderers and murderers with categories like shots on target percentage.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
    @Alec Leamas (working from home)


    we could have baseball-style trading cards for black murderers and would-be murderers
     
    Ghetto kids could stick them in the spokes of their carjacked SUVs
  29. One can find numerous progs in the media/social media who will insist that rising crime concerns are all BS because we are not at the all time highs of the crack era. So in the interest of not pointing out or discussing embarrassing facts about their favorite demographic, they are content to look the other way as blacks alone double the annual body count of the entire EU.

    Obviously there are a lot of traditional conservatives who like to point out that essentially all efforts to “help” blacks have been a disaster, but for the left these are acceptable losses in the pursuit of political power. The path forward is not to frame it in these terms, but the impact of black dysfunction on everyone else needs to be reined in.

    • Thanks: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Arclight


    One can find numerous progs in the media/social media who will insist that rising crime concerns are all BS because we are not at the all time highs of the crack era. So in the interest of not pointing out or discussing embarrassing facts about their favorite demographic, they are content to look the other way as blacks alone double the annual body count of the entire EU.
     
    I found this to be the height of bad faith - in the late Obama years, a twenty plus year trend of decreased violent crime (which led to the renewal of American cities) reversed itself. That was news of enormous significance. But the prog messaging hivemind took the position that violent crime was still lower than the all time peak in the early to mid 1990s crack era, so you were not dealing in FACTS and DATA and were being unnecessarily alarmist to point this historic reversal out. If you look back at the media obsessions when this reversal started to occur, it makes the whole U.S. political environment seem all the more hopeless and stupid.

    Replies: @Arclight

  30. Anonymous[658] • Disclaimer says:
    @ginger bread man
    Can you do a graph for NYC?

    Did the homicide rate go up there as much as the rest of the country?

    Replies: @Anonymous, @fish

    Do yur own homework marv

  31. Anonymous[658] • Disclaimer says:
    @anonymous
    Ironically - and with great importance for gun control debates - the USA still has one of the lowest murder rates in the Americas, even with these spikes in numbers

    Back in 2019, the USA had the 4th lowest murder rate in the Americas, only Canada (also with lots of guns), Chile and Cuba were better ... Even places in Latin America people think of as 'safer', like Costa Rica, had 2.5x or higher multiples of the USA murder rate. Mexico 3x, etc.

    The moral seems to be this: Once societies are significantly 'multi-cultural' and race-mixed - uniquely the Americas - they are generally significantly violent, and you NEED THE GUNS in hands of honest people to keep the murder numbers down.

    A huge amount of Latin American murders are via knives and clubs as well as illegal guns. You have no defence against a small group of thugs with just wood and metal, if your family has no guns. So gun-control shills talk about 'gun murders' instead of just 'murders' generally, which tell a different story.

    Brasil had been something like 4x-5x the US murder rate, but murder rates there went DOWN as Bolsonaro made gun ownership a little easier.

    Latin American murder rates are higher than most of Africa, aside from 'multi-cultural' South Africa, the only place outside of the Americas with several of the world's most murderous cities. Tho rapes and thefts are high, superstitious Africans apparently fear being haunted by the ghosts of anyone they kill. USA blacks, 'Christianised' or 'Islamicised', have had this salutary fear pressed out of them.

    This is what needs to be trumpeted in all those 'gun control' debates.

    Replies: @Hapalong Cassidy, @Anonymous, @Jonathan Mason

    Coming your way fast.

    # mass immigration

  32. …they are content to look the other way as blacks alone double the annual body count of the entire EU.

    Realize that the few well-off blacks who can afford to live in their neighborhoods aren’t the violent type, other than the odd Heisman Trophy winner. Rarely more than a hissy fit by someone locked out of his house.

  33. @anonymous
    Ironically - and with great importance for gun control debates - the USA still has one of the lowest murder rates in the Americas, even with these spikes in numbers

    Back in 2019, the USA had the 4th lowest murder rate in the Americas, only Canada (also with lots of guns), Chile and Cuba were better ... Even places in Latin America people think of as 'safer', like Costa Rica, had 2.5x or higher multiples of the USA murder rate. Mexico 3x, etc.

    The moral seems to be this: Once societies are significantly 'multi-cultural' and race-mixed - uniquely the Americas - they are generally significantly violent, and you NEED THE GUNS in hands of honest people to keep the murder numbers down.

    A huge amount of Latin American murders are via knives and clubs as well as illegal guns. You have no defence against a small group of thugs with just wood and metal, if your family has no guns. So gun-control shills talk about 'gun murders' instead of just 'murders' generally, which tell a different story.

    Brasil had been something like 4x-5x the US murder rate, but murder rates there went DOWN as Bolsonaro made gun ownership a little easier.

    Latin American murder rates are higher than most of Africa, aside from 'multi-cultural' South Africa, the only place outside of the Americas with several of the world's most murderous cities. Tho rapes and thefts are high, superstitious Africans apparently fear being haunted by the ghosts of anyone they kill. USA blacks, 'Christianised' or 'Islamicised', have had this salutary fear pressed out of them.

    This is what needs to be trumpeted in all those 'gun control' debates.

    Replies: @Hapalong Cassidy, @Anonymous, @Jonathan Mason

    The moral seems to be this: Once societies are significantly ‘multi-cultural’ and race-mixed – uniquely the Americas – they are generally significantly violent, and you NEED THE GUNS in hands of honest people to keep the murder numbers down.

    In some respects it is true that it is fairer to compare the US to Brazil than to compare it to European nations.

    It is all a question of image, because traditionally the US has been considered to be an honorary European nation, whereas contemporary US is no more a European nation than Venezuela is a province of Spain.

    But the US has this image of being the land of Carousel, where homicides hardly happen except as crimes of passion, but the truth is that it is and always has been the wild west. Even the Supreme Court thinks we should go back to the eighteenths century and be prepared to fight a duel at the drop of a hat.

    Not June 2022.

  34. @Henry Canaday
    Yeah, Washington DC is like it was in 1992, the peak of the Warren Court crime explosion: blacks are slaughtering each other in Southeast, and in leafy third-alphabet Northwest, whites are worried about stuff that might be stolen from their cars.

    Replies: @guest007

    In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k).

    • Replies: @Henry Canaday
    @guest007

    We bottomed out at 88 murders in 2012. With 226 in 2021, as Ronald Reagan would say, we're "on the mend."

    , @Mike Tre
    @guest007

    "In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k). "

    Now compare total shootings. Advances in emergency care have reduced the number of gunshot fatalities across the board in large cities since the early 90's.

    Then compare demographic changes since 1991. Much of the population growth the last 30 years are college graduates seeking to ride the G funded gravy train in form or fashion.

    Third - all of the different police forces in the metro DC area are given much wider latitude with regards to maintaining the peace, (similar to how campus police for The University of Chicago tend to keep things relatively quiet in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood; it's a literally an oasis of politically connected Chicago Machine members in the a desert of ghetto dysfunction) after all, there are very important people moving about the capitol on a daily basis. It wouldn't look too good if congressmen and lobbyists were getting assaulted by exuberant negroes a couple times a week.

    Replies: @guest007, @prosa123

    , @Twinkie
    @guest007


    Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC
     
    DC is whiter than it was.
  35. @ic1000
    @Steve Sailer

    Mr. Anon said upthread:

    > The graph [in this post] shows an uptick in homicides in February 2020, about four months before the beginning of the Summer of George.

    Steve replied:

    > As I’ve been saying, I think black homicides started going up around the middle of 2019.

    This graph and the two companion graphs in Steve's Takimag J'Accuse! piece from May '22 are fine-grained enough to count months. As Mr. Anon noted, 202o trendline begins shooting up in March. However, February is every year's low point -- low-energy guys huddling around the coal grate rather than emptying the magazine at a funeral or flipping the car.

    April 2020 to May 2020 is the Big Jump, which continues up to its high in June 2020.

    St. Floyd was crucified asphyxiated for our sins on May 25th. So he, alone, can't fully explain the ascendance to the New Mayhem Normal.

    Contra Steve's comment, My Mark One Eyeball says that 2019 was a typical post-Ferguson year for both homicides and traffic fatalities.

    Replies: @recently_based

    I was about to make exactly the same comment. Any normal statistical time-series test would not identify any month through April 2020 as an anomaly through that date, and would certainly identify My 2020 as the point of the regime change.

  36. @Arclight
    One can find numerous progs in the media/social media who will insist that rising crime concerns are all BS because we are not at the all time highs of the crack era. So in the interest of not pointing out or discussing embarrassing facts about their favorite demographic, they are content to look the other way as blacks alone double the annual body count of the entire EU.

    Obviously there are a lot of traditional conservatives who like to point out that essentially all efforts to "help" blacks have been a disaster, but for the left these are acceptable losses in the pursuit of political power. The path forward is not to frame it in these terms, but the impact of black dysfunction on everyone else needs to be reined in.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    One can find numerous progs in the media/social media who will insist that rising crime concerns are all BS because we are not at the all time highs of the crack era. So in the interest of not pointing out or discussing embarrassing facts about their favorite demographic, they are content to look the other way as blacks alone double the annual body count of the entire EU.

    I found this to be the height of bad faith – in the late Obama years, a twenty plus year trend of decreased violent crime (which led to the renewal of American cities) reversed itself. That was news of enormous significance. But the prog messaging hivemind took the position that violent crime was still lower than the all time peak in the early to mid 1990s crack era, so you were not dealing in FACTS and DATA and were being unnecessarily alarmist to point this historic reversal out. If you look back at the media obsessions when this reversal started to occur, it makes the whole U.S. political environment seem all the more hopeless and stupid.

    • Replies: @Arclight
    @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    I think that the single biggest reason the woke/white supremacy theory picked up massive steam in recent years is essentially a progressive mental crackup over the fact no one at any point on the political spectrum would say that decades of pro-black social and economic policies have yielded anything close to the desired result. The left resolutely believes that smart public policy can perfect people and society, and when confronted with a segment of the population that seems largely immune to a wide range of policy interventions they basically went primitive and decided something in the ether that infests every molecule in the US holds blacks back from their rightful place in society.

    In short, they don't think blacks can help themselves when it comes to controlling their behavior because of this magical and malign force, and thus it's not worth noticing much less discussing the possibility that there are a number of cultural practices within their control that produce such abysmal outcomes.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

  37. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can't be the death of George Floyd, as he didn't die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George - in terms of the murder rate - wasn't so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Cortes, @Diversity Heretic, @Ebony Obelisk, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @AnotherDad

    I don’t really see 2020 February or March–look pretty normal to me. But the black rate in April is up and touch, and May is up considerably. So the pandemic did boost black springtime “exuberance”, a bit even before Saint George OD’d because of white supremacy.

    This summer will tell the tale. What is the “new normal”?

  38. Anon[155] • Disclaimer says:

    My theories:

    Dysgenic breeding is leaving blacks even more repugnant to each other than usual, causing conflicts.

    Letting a lot of blacks out of prison in liberal states during Covid has meant a lot of killing among blacks. This trend should be most noticeable in states where they emptied out their prisons.

    Legalization of drugs has caused more blacks to go off their heads while under the influence, causing them to kill each other. This effect should be most noticeable in states that have legalized drugs.

    Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.

    An aside: Social media has made blacks more aware of how huge the gulf is between themselves and whites, in every way possible. Wealth, social status, manners, behavior, etc. So competition among blacks has intensified, leading them to kill each other more often in their attempts to climb the social ladder. In the last generation, there has been far more clamoring among blacks that they want to go to white colleges, live in white neighborhoods, and get jobs among the white middle- and upper-classes.

    In fact, this greater exposure to white culture and material wealth is causing most of the 3rd world to want to move to America.

    Or it could be all of the above.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    "Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones."

    That's what I see all the time in interviews with big city police chiefs, but I never hear it as criticism of social media that something should be done about.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    , @Corvinus
    @Anon

    “My theories:”

    Right, your opinions.

    “Dysgenic breeding is leaving blacks even more repugnant to each other than usual, causing conflicts.”

    Replace blacks with lower class people regardless of race.

    “Letting a lot of blacks out of prison in liberal states during Covid has meant a lot of killing among blacks. This trend should be most noticeable in states where they emptied out their prisons.”

    Replace blacks with felons.

    “Legalization of drugs has caused more blacks to go off their heads while under the influence, causing them to kill each other. This effect should be most noticeable in states that have legalized drugs.”

    Replace blacks with people.

    “Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.”

    Replace blacks with people.

    “In fact, this greater exposure to white culture and material wealth is causing most of the 3rd world to want to move to America.”

    There is no such thing as “white culture”, just culture.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  39. @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    I mean they won't have reasonable numbers for December 2021 until July 2022, so I'm ending the trendlines with November 2021.

    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can't expect to be kept up to date.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @JR Ewing

    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can’t expect to be kept up to date.

    I get the joke, but to be fair, there are only 15 MLB baseball games happening in the US on any given day and there are just under a hundred thousand municipalities and counties being staffed by government workers who are on their break right now.

  40. OT: U.S. colleges are ethnically cleansing America’s White Kulaks.

    https://www.revolver.news/2022/06/colleges-are-ethnically-cleansing-americas-white-kulaks/

    Interesting confounding factors at work there, among the paucity of unproctored standardized test results in the wake of COVID, the lawsuits on behalf of Asian students, and Whites beginning to identify as other than White (the Elizabeth Warren prototype) in their own best interests.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Russ

    Who would want to go to a college full of affirmative action admits anyway?

  41. @guest007
    @Henry Canaday

    In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k).

    Replies: @Henry Canaday, @Mike Tre, @Twinkie

    We bottomed out at 88 murders in 2012. With 226 in 2021, as Ronald Reagan would say, we’re “on the mend.”

  42. The summers of 2020 and 21 form the notoriously bearish “double top” in market analysis and horseracing — suggesting that homicidal blacks have given it their best shot and their murder performance is likely to regress.

  43. @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Steve Sailer


    These are just matters of life and death, not baseball statistics, so you can’t expect to be kept up to date.
     
    You just gave me the idea that we could have baseball-style trading cards for black would-be murderers and murderers with categories like shots on target percentage.

    Replies: @Known Fact

    we could have baseball-style trading cards for black murderers and would-be murderers

    Ghetto kids could stick them in the spokes of their carjacked SUVs

  44. I would count covid and covid vax deaths as homicide.

  45. Wonder what the stats have to say about suicides and substance abuse?

    I could make a pretty damned good guess.

  46. @J.Ross
    OT -- I was completely wrong about abortion enabling Democrat energy in the midterms. I have now seen several online reports plus actual elbow-knocking away from keyboard.* Nobody cares. Everybody cares about the price of gas. Everybody cares about groceries going up. Some people care about Eastern Europe beyond the pornographic thrill of selflessly sacrificing hapless starving middle-aged Ukrainians. Nobody is mobilizing over the enablement of Cool Cat Wine Aunts who were never getting married anyway. Nobody is even writing or calling anybody.
    https://i.postimg.cc/vBchjGQL/1656239487656.jpg
    *Little Lou's, hottest chicken in the mitten state? So I guess we don't have hot chicken in the mitten state. I miss Rosie O'Grady's dry rub wings, which defeated a Buffalo Wild Wings location across the street without much of a fight and which they inexplicably dropped.

    Replies: @Anon, @Stan Adams

    >Nobody is mobilizing over the enablement of Cool Cat Wine Aunts who were never getting married anyway

    So you’re admitting this decision is going to lead to a bunch more births out of wedlock? Good to know the pro-life side is making America better!

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @Anon

    “Millions of stupid selfish reckless people, men and women, chose to have sex without taking the pill or using a condom, and now the women are pregnant. You won’t let them murder and chop up the innocent helpless babies whom they created, so YOU are the one making America worse!”

    Great argument.

  47. @guest007
    @Henry Canaday

    In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k).

    Replies: @Henry Canaday, @Mike Tre, @Twinkie

    “In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k). ”

    Now compare total shootings. Advances in emergency care have reduced the number of gunshot fatalities across the board in large cities since the early 90’s.

    Then compare demographic changes since 1991. Much of the population growth the last 30 years are college graduates seeking to ride the G funded gravy train in form or fashion.

    Third – all of the different police forces in the metro DC area are given much wider latitude with regards to maintaining the peace, (similar to how campus police for The University of Chicago tend to keep things relatively quiet in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood; it’s a literally an oasis of politically connected Chicago Machine members in the a desert of ghetto dysfunction) after all, there are very important people moving about the capitol on a daily basis. It wouldn’t look too good if congressmen and lobbyists were getting assaulted by exuberant negroes a couple times a week.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @Mike Tre

    In 1991 there was 15,000 reported violent crimes in DC compared to 8k in 2019. Also, the reported number of homicides went up 15% in 2021 versus 2020 but assaults with a weapon only went up 3%.
    You could have looed this up yourself instead of speculating to support your theory. If one wanted to correct for demographics, then one could add up DC and Prince Georges County Maryland.

    However, the murder rate in PG had been going down from 2002 to 2013 before going back up.

    https://www.livestories.com/statistics/maryland/prince-george's-county-homicide-assault-deaths-mortality

    And there are roughly 60 law enforcement organizations in DC that can arrest you. The joke with metro police is since they are the one who answers the phone when one dials 911, they are the real police. I also found out that DC itself has three separate full time bomb squads (Metro police, secret service, and WMATA (transit)). I guess that deal with a bomb in a subway tunnel is a speciality that DC pays extra to have. There are also the bomb squads in the surrounding counties along with the military EOD units.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike Tre, @Reg Cæsar

    , @prosa123
    @Mike Tre

    Now compare total shootings. Advances in emergency care have reduced the number of gunshot fatalities across the board in large cities since the early 90’s.

    Counteracted at least in part by more high-capacity magazines leading to more multiple hits.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @J.Ross

  48. Crime is driven by men with balls (not being redundant here). What do men with balls care about? Women and money to get/keep women. Inequality among men in ability to secure a mate is very high and more and more men are becoming aware that they are losers in this culture with de facto polygamy/high levels of female choice.

    Mostly, polygamous cultures are more violent, because more men end up hopeless/totally without a mate. More guys end up suicidally bored and just go out to fight/run amok, because evolution primed them to go haywire and take the goalie off the net as a last ditch resort. If you’re not gonna score behaving normally, then extreme acts might be your only shot. In the long run, the guys who went out and became psycho killers managed to increase their reproductive success over the passive eunuchs who sat peacefully twiddling their thumbs into extinction.

    I expect these social trends to continue unabated.

    • Troll: guest007
    • Replies: @SafeNow
    @puttheforkdown


    guys who went out and became psycho killers managed to increase their reproductive success
     
    You were unjustly trolled. What you are describing is what anthropologists and psychologists call “the biological imperative.” It has a few components, and one big one is to maintain and increase “territoriality.” Or, as you call it, guys who went out. Totally correct. I am no expert at this, but my theory is if your wiring is in Africa, there’s an advantage in going out and patrolling and dominating the territory. On the other hand, if your roots were in Norway or England or Northeast China, there’s no advantage in patrolling the territory and dominating it at all costs.
  49. @J.Ross
    OT -- I was completely wrong about abortion enabling Democrat energy in the midterms. I have now seen several online reports plus actual elbow-knocking away from keyboard.* Nobody cares. Everybody cares about the price of gas. Everybody cares about groceries going up. Some people care about Eastern Europe beyond the pornographic thrill of selflessly sacrificing hapless starving middle-aged Ukrainians. Nobody is mobilizing over the enablement of Cool Cat Wine Aunts who were never getting married anyway. Nobody is even writing or calling anybody.
    https://i.postimg.cc/vBchjGQL/1656239487656.jpg
    *Little Lou's, hottest chicken in the mitten state? So I guess we don't have hot chicken in the mitten state. I miss Rosie O'Grady's dry rub wings, which defeated a Buffalo Wild Wings location across the street without much of a fight and which they inexplicably dropped.

    Replies: @Anon, @Stan Adams

    In retrospect, the leak backfired on the left. It gave everyone an extra month to process the implications of the decision. The actual ruling was anticlimactic.

    • Agree: Muggles, AnotherDad
  50. @Anon
    My theories:

    Dysgenic breeding is leaving blacks even more repugnant to each other than usual, causing conflicts.

    Letting a lot of blacks out of prison in liberal states during Covid has meant a lot of killing among blacks. This trend should be most noticeable in states where they emptied out their prisons.

    Legalization of drugs has caused more blacks to go off their heads while under the influence, causing them to kill each other. This effect should be most noticeable in states that have legalized drugs.

    Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.

    An aside: Social media has made blacks more aware of how huge the gulf is between themselves and whites, in every way possible. Wealth, social status, manners, behavior, etc. So competition among blacks has intensified, leading them to kill each other more often in their attempts to climb the social ladder. In the last generation, there has been far more clamoring among blacks that they want to go to white colleges, live in white neighborhoods, and get jobs among the white middle- and upper-classes.

    In fact, this greater exposure to white culture and material wealth is causing most of the 3rd world to want to move to America.

    Or it could be all of the above.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Corvinus

    “Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.”

    That’s what I see all the time in interviews with big city police chiefs, but I never hear it as criticism of social media that something should be done about.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @Steve Sailer

    “Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.”

    It's also created ways for kids to be bullied 24/7, whereas once the bullying mostly stopped when you got safely home. I'm sure this is a factor in increased youth suicides - my kids had 3 people at their secondary schools kill themselves, it was unknown 40 years back at my school.

    A co-factor will be divorce/separation, also rarer back in the day. Two of the suicides (boys) were living without a father at home, and the third's (girl) parents had just split up.

  51. @Ebony Obelisk
    @Mr. Anon

    Access to guns

    Right wing crazies being given the microphone

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @nebulafox

    Are you saying that the africans in America are more homicidal than white people and that the africans in America shouldn’t have access to guns?

  52. @Ebony Obelisk
    @Mr. Anon

    Access to guns

    Right wing crazies being given the microphone

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @nebulafox

  53. With Roe versus Wade overturned, will the decline of the in utero murder rate be compensated by an increase in the ex utero murder rate?

  54. @Anon
    My theories:

    Dysgenic breeding is leaving blacks even more repugnant to each other than usual, causing conflicts.

    Letting a lot of blacks out of prison in liberal states during Covid has meant a lot of killing among blacks. This trend should be most noticeable in states where they emptied out their prisons.

    Legalization of drugs has caused more blacks to go off their heads while under the influence, causing them to kill each other. This effect should be most noticeable in states that have legalized drugs.

    Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.

    An aside: Social media has made blacks more aware of how huge the gulf is between themselves and whites, in every way possible. Wealth, social status, manners, behavior, etc. So competition among blacks has intensified, leading them to kill each other more often in their attempts to climb the social ladder. In the last generation, there has been far more clamoring among blacks that they want to go to white colleges, live in white neighborhoods, and get jobs among the white middle- and upper-classes.

    In fact, this greater exposure to white culture and material wealth is causing most of the 3rd world to want to move to America.

    Or it could be all of the above.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Corvinus

    “My theories:”

    Right, your opinions.

    “Dysgenic breeding is leaving blacks even more repugnant to each other than usual, causing conflicts.”

    Replace blacks with lower class people regardless of race.

    “Letting a lot of blacks out of prison in liberal states during Covid has meant a lot of killing among blacks. This trend should be most noticeable in states where they emptied out their prisons.”

    Replace blacks with felons.

    “Legalization of drugs has caused more blacks to go off their heads while under the influence, causing them to kill each other. This effect should be most noticeable in states that have legalized drugs.”

    Replace blacks with people.

    “Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.”

    Replace blacks with people.

    “In fact, this greater exposure to white culture and material wealth is causing most of the 3rd world to want to move to America.”

    There is no such thing as “white culture”, just culture.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Corvinus


    There is no such thing as “white culture”, just culture.
     
    Replace "white" with "black" "African-American"?

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/A1IYPb13YAL.jpg

    Replies: @Russ, @Corvinus

  55. @Mike Tre
    @guest007

    "In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k). "

    Now compare total shootings. Advances in emergency care have reduced the number of gunshot fatalities across the board in large cities since the early 90's.

    Then compare demographic changes since 1991. Much of the population growth the last 30 years are college graduates seeking to ride the G funded gravy train in form or fashion.

    Third - all of the different police forces in the metro DC area are given much wider latitude with regards to maintaining the peace, (similar to how campus police for The University of Chicago tend to keep things relatively quiet in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood; it's a literally an oasis of politically connected Chicago Machine members in the a desert of ghetto dysfunction) after all, there are very important people moving about the capitol on a daily basis. It wouldn't look too good if congressmen and lobbyists were getting assaulted by exuberant negroes a couple times a week.

    Replies: @guest007, @prosa123

    In 1991 there was 15,000 reported violent crimes in DC compared to 8k in 2019. Also, the reported number of homicides went up 15% in 2021 versus 2020 but assaults with a weapon only went up 3%.
    You could have looed this up yourself instead of speculating to support your theory. If one wanted to correct for demographics, then one could add up DC and Prince Georges County Maryland.

    However, the murder rate in PG had been going down from 2002 to 2013 before going back up.

    https://www.livestories.com/statistics/maryland/prince-george’s-county-homicide-assault-deaths-mortality

    And there are roughly 60 law enforcement organizations in DC that can arrest you. The joke with metro police is since they are the one who answers the phone when one dials 911, they are the real police. I also found out that DC itself has three separate full time bomb squads (Metro police, secret service, and WMATA (transit)). I guess that deal with a bomb in a subway tunnel is a speciality that DC pays extra to have. There are also the bomb squads in the surrounding counties along with the military EOD units.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @guest007

    After 9/11, federal government agencies added a lot of armed men, which did a lot for DC real estate values. That the US capital had large numbers of murders within a couple of miles of the US Capitol in the later 20th Century was absurd. Eventually, absurdities are dealt with.

    Replies: @guest007, @J.Ross

    , @Mike Tre
    @guest007

    "In 1991 there was 15,000 reported violent crimes in DC compared to 8k in 2019. Also, the reported number of homicides went up 15% in 2021 versus 2020 but assaults with a weapon only went up 3%.
    You could have looed this up yourself instead of speculating to support your theory. "

    None of this even addresses my "theory." I said shootings, not reported violent crimes. Big difference.

    "However, the murder rate in PG had been going down from 2002 to 2013 before going back up. "

    This was the trend in most metro areas during the same time period.

    Replies: @Guest007

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @guest007


    You could have looed this up yourself...
     
    Instead, you looed it up quite well yourself:

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/47/b2/de47b2854151615919b5e22d69375b7c.jpg

    https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/t-YAAOSwXdxiLARx/s-l500.jpg

    https://i.etsystatic.com/7636090/r/il/2f6f7c/860202773/il_570xN.860202773_by9c.jpg

    https://www.prophire-backdrophire.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/0055059.jpg

  56. @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Mr. Anon


    So what is the cause of the massive uptick in Black homicides beginning in early February 2020? It can’t be the death of George Floyd, as he didn’t die for another four months. Ahmaud Arbery was killed in early February 2020. The graph you showed would seem to indicate that the Summer of George – in terms of the murder rate – wasn’t so much the Summer of George as it was the Year of Ahmaud.
     
    Maybe I'm misreading it, but black homicides were in a typical trough in January of 2020 according to the graph - yes, they were ticking up (it seems like the first of the year is the trough of every yearly cycle even in the heavier years of 2021 and it looks like 2022 - maybe it's too cold in Northern cities for loose gunplay), but the uptick was within the seasonal norm for the graph. Floyd dies on May 25 of 2020, which would be roughly halfway between 1/20 and 7/20 on the graph, and black homicides at that point are more of less where you'd expect them to be (trending upwards but within the historical norm for the graph at that point). It's just that May of 2020 the trend doesn't abate and continues to build and build to a nearly 50% increase over previous years by July of 2020.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Floyd dies on May 25 of 2020, which would be roughly halfway between 1/20 and 7/20 on the graph, and black homicides at that point are more of less where you’d expect them to be (trending upwards but within the historical norm for the graph at that point).

    The end of May isn’t halfway between, it’s almost at one horizontal division before the peak at 7/20, and the number at that time is already at least 90% of the peak. Nothing about 2020’s numbers is amiss (compared to the two earlier years) until about early April, but then it really takes off. There may be a little bump due to the Summer-of-George effect or it may just be the continuation of the already prominent trend that started in April. What this graph pretty clearly indicates is that the abnormally large number of black homicides beginning in 2020 cannot be chalked up to the whole St. Floyd insanity of the summer of 2020.

    I have no idea what the cause might be. Did the cops just get really hands-off when it came to policing on account of the ‘rona?

  57. @Mike Tre
    @guest007

    "In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k). "

    Now compare total shootings. Advances in emergency care have reduced the number of gunshot fatalities across the board in large cities since the early 90's.

    Then compare demographic changes since 1991. Much of the population growth the last 30 years are college graduates seeking to ride the G funded gravy train in form or fashion.

    Third - all of the different police forces in the metro DC area are given much wider latitude with regards to maintaining the peace, (similar to how campus police for The University of Chicago tend to keep things relatively quiet in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood; it's a literally an oasis of politically connected Chicago Machine members in the a desert of ghetto dysfunction) after all, there are very important people moving about the capitol on a daily basis. It wouldn't look too good if congressmen and lobbyists were getting assaulted by exuberant negroes a couple times a week.

    Replies: @guest007, @prosa123

    Now compare total shootings. Advances in emergency care have reduced the number of gunshot fatalities across the board in large cities since the early 90’s.

    Counteracted at least in part by more high-capacity magazines leading to more multiple hits.

    • LOL: Mike Tre
    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @prosa123

    "Counteracted at least in part by more high-capacity magazines leading to more multiple hits. "

    Nonsense. 13 round magazines have been around since the 1920's. Further, you're not familiar with Sailer's Law, I take it.

    , @J.Ross
    @prosa123

    >magazines cause accuracy

    You're holding the gun wrong.

  58. @puttheforkdown
    Crime is driven by men with balls (not being redundant here). What do men with balls care about? Women and money to get/keep women. Inequality among men in ability to secure a mate is very high and more and more men are becoming aware that they are losers in this culture with de facto polygamy/high levels of female choice.

    Mostly, polygamous cultures are more violent, because more men end up hopeless/totally without a mate. More guys end up suicidally bored and just go out to fight/run amok, because evolution primed them to go haywire and take the goalie off the net as a last ditch resort. If you're not gonna score behaving normally, then extreme acts might be your only shot. In the long run, the guys who went out and became psycho killers managed to increase their reproductive success over the passive eunuchs who sat peacefully twiddling their thumbs into extinction.

    I expect these social trends to continue unabated.

    Replies: @SafeNow

    guys who went out and became psycho killers managed to increase their reproductive success

    You were unjustly trolled. What you are describing is what anthropologists and psychologists call “the biological imperative.” It has a few components, and one big one is to maintain and increase “territoriality.” Or, as you call it, guys who went out. Totally correct. I am no expert at this, but my theory is if your wiring is in Africa, there’s an advantage in going out and patrolling and dominating the territory. On the other hand, if your roots were in Norway or England or Northeast China, there’s no advantage in patrolling the territory and dominating it at all costs.

    • Agree: JR Ewing
  59. One of my hobbies is reading old newspapers. Sometimes I marvel at the honesty with which certain social phenomena were reported in the early part of the twentieth century:

    The past is a different country; they do things differently there.

  60. @Sean
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tio0r1BoMtg

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    • LOL: Cortes
    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    @YetAnotherAnon

    https://i.redd.it/13nomoi6sl771.png

    https://i.redd.it/go0i85x8z7s71.jpg

    Replies: @nebulafox

    , @Sean
    @YetAnotherAnon

    It is barely possible to think of any war or anti terrorist operation (EG school and theatre sieges) where Russia was not profligate with its own peoples lives. As Ali said of Joe Frazier they 'get angry when you miss them'.

    https://youtu.be/e8sRVGGlY3c?t=91

  61. @guest007
    @Mike Tre

    In 1991 there was 15,000 reported violent crimes in DC compared to 8k in 2019. Also, the reported number of homicides went up 15% in 2021 versus 2020 but assaults with a weapon only went up 3%.
    You could have looed this up yourself instead of speculating to support your theory. If one wanted to correct for demographics, then one could add up DC and Prince Georges County Maryland.

    However, the murder rate in PG had been going down from 2002 to 2013 before going back up.

    https://www.livestories.com/statistics/maryland/prince-george's-county-homicide-assault-deaths-mortality

    And there are roughly 60 law enforcement organizations in DC that can arrest you. The joke with metro police is since they are the one who answers the phone when one dials 911, they are the real police. I also found out that DC itself has three separate full time bomb squads (Metro police, secret service, and WMATA (transit)). I guess that deal with a bomb in a subway tunnel is a speciality that DC pays extra to have. There are also the bomb squads in the surrounding counties along with the military EOD units.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike Tre, @Reg Cæsar

    After 9/11, federal government agencies added a lot of armed men, which did a lot for DC real estate values. That the US capital had large numbers of murders within a couple of miles of the US Capitol in the later 20th Century was absurd. Eventually, absurdities are dealt with.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @Steve Sailer

    Most visitor to DC notice the large number of armed security for places that they do not think about. The world bank always has armed security on the sidewalks around their building and one cannot go into the employee entrance without showing someone an employee ID card. Also, much of DC is a no retreat, no negotiation zone. The secret service will not try to negotiate with you or talk you into surrendering.

    Replies: @Cagey Beast

    , @J.Ross
    @Steve Sailer

    eventually absurdities are dealt with

    i want to believe

  62. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    "Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones."

    That's what I see all the time in interviews with big city police chiefs, but I never hear it as criticism of social media that something should be done about.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    “Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.”

    It’s also created ways for kids to be bullied 24/7, whereas once the bullying mostly stopped when you got safely home. I’m sure this is a factor in increased youth suicides – my kids had 3 people at their secondary schools kill themselves, it was unknown 40 years back at my school.

    A co-factor will be divorce/separation, also rarer back in the day. Two of the suicides (boys) were living without a father at home, and the third’s (girl) parents had just split up.

    • Thanks: Charon
  63. @Steve Sailer
    @guest007

    After 9/11, federal government agencies added a lot of armed men, which did a lot for DC real estate values. That the US capital had large numbers of murders within a couple of miles of the US Capitol in the later 20th Century was absurd. Eventually, absurdities are dealt with.

    Replies: @guest007, @J.Ross

    Most visitor to DC notice the large number of armed security for places that they do not think about. The world bank always has armed security on the sidewalks around their building and one cannot go into the employee entrance without showing someone an employee ID card. Also, much of DC is a no retreat, no negotiation zone. The secret service will not try to negotiate with you or talk you into surrendering.

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    @guest007

    Washington DC is Emerald City, the mother of all Green Zones.

    Replies: @guest007

  64. @Not Raul
    It looks like Hispanic is a bit elevated, too.

    Replies: @James Speaks

    A civilization cannot thrive when a segment of the population regularly murders, but after sixty years of catering to negroes, what is to be done?

    I get the impression sometimes that PTB have decided to let negroes run amok until the majority of whites conclude that negroes cannot be here. Factor in a food, fuel and currency crisis and the problem may sort itself out. One can hope.

    • Thanks: Not Raul
  65. @Hapalong Cassidy
    @anonymous

    I’ve never bought into the published stats that murder rates are higher in Latin America than Africa. I think that most of Africa has dubious record-keeping ability, which tends to understate the true number of homicides. South Africa being relatively more advanced than most other African nations means they keep more accurate records - hence their very high murder rate.

    Replies: @James Speaks, @Colin Wright, @Reg Cæsar

    Habeas Corpus doesn’t work in Africa. Think about it.

  66. @guest007
    @Steve Sailer

    Most visitor to DC notice the large number of armed security for places that they do not think about. The world bank always has armed security on the sidewalks around their building and one cannot go into the employee entrance without showing someone an employee ID card. Also, much of DC is a no retreat, no negotiation zone. The secret service will not try to negotiate with you or talk you into surrendering.

    Replies: @Cagey Beast

    Washington DC is Emerald City, the mother of all Green Zones.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @Cagey Beast

    Another joke about the greater DC area are the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Twinkie, @Reg Cæsar

  67. the floyd riots gave the cops the excuse they needed to do nothing…ultimately they are just lazy bureaucrats, as proven in the uvalde shootings

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @stillCARealist
    @Propagandist Hacker

    The cops I know would love to rough up some punks, but they can't. I think they feel like they can't do what they've trained to do, so what the heck? They write up reports and issue warnings and collect evidence that will go essentially nowhere.

    I'm starting to wonder if policing can even work at all without a little brutality. These punks don't understand anything but a good beating, so let the cops do it occastionally.

  68. @Propagandist Hacker
    the floyd riots gave the cops the excuse they needed to do nothing...ultimately they are just lazy bureaucrats, as proven in the uvalde shootings

    Replies: @stillCARealist

    The cops I know would love to rough up some punks, but they can’t. I think they feel like they can’t do what they’ve trained to do, so what the heck? They write up reports and issue warnings and collect evidence that will go essentially nowhere.

    I’m starting to wonder if policing can even work at all without a little brutality. These punks don’t understand anything but a good beating, so let the cops do it occastionally.

  69. Has NYT or some accepted mainstream news posted something like this yet? I’d like to share this data/visualization without getting crucified for it.

  70. More than half – I’ve seen 52% and 54% depending on the source – of inmates released from New York State prisons go directly to New York City’s homeless shelters. So much for their Wonderful Families providing for them.

  71. @YetAnotherAnon
    @Sean

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWMLWenUsAAtw3i.jpg

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian, @Sean

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @Bardon Kaldian

    Russia is a massively difficult country to run, and the governmental structures often reflect the weakness of rulers in getting things done rather than the other way around. Directly invade? You are cooked. Apply pressure on the periphery, and let things internally go their own way, you aren't.

    Mind, my take is very simple: Russia (and Iran) are second-tier annoyances with whom we need to cut whatever deals need to be cut so we can extract ourselves from Europe and the Middle East and focus exclusively on China, which should be considered an equal superpower now-and even there, power projection ain't going to be what it used to be after 30 years of mismanagement. At worst, it'll be a matter of saving the country from the times ahead. My opinion of giving 6.1 billion to the Azov Batallion while more Americans are thrown into poverty and trying to kiss Saudi ass instead of opening our own pipelines need not be stated.

    (We do not need a garrison in South Korea, for example. They do not want reunification-and in any case, it's pretty clear that KJU is going to be around for a long time now, and he's purged anybody who is thinking of cutting a deal with Beijing at the cost of his regime's existence and possibly economic revival. In general, the Pivot to Asia neglected... actually treating Asian allies with the same level of solicitude that we've given to NATO freeloaders out of Boomer nostalgia, and also went for breadth instead of the selective depth I'd favor. But that's my unprofessional take, nothing more.)

  72. @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Arclight


    One can find numerous progs in the media/social media who will insist that rising crime concerns are all BS because we are not at the all time highs of the crack era. So in the interest of not pointing out or discussing embarrassing facts about their favorite demographic, they are content to look the other way as blacks alone double the annual body count of the entire EU.
     
    I found this to be the height of bad faith - in the late Obama years, a twenty plus year trend of decreased violent crime (which led to the renewal of American cities) reversed itself. That was news of enormous significance. But the prog messaging hivemind took the position that violent crime was still lower than the all time peak in the early to mid 1990s crack era, so you were not dealing in FACTS and DATA and were being unnecessarily alarmist to point this historic reversal out. If you look back at the media obsessions when this reversal started to occur, it makes the whole U.S. political environment seem all the more hopeless and stupid.

    Replies: @Arclight

    I think that the single biggest reason the woke/white supremacy theory picked up massive steam in recent years is essentially a progressive mental crackup over the fact no one at any point on the political spectrum would say that decades of pro-black social and economic policies have yielded anything close to the desired result. The left resolutely believes that smart public policy can perfect people and society, and when confronted with a segment of the population that seems largely immune to a wide range of policy interventions they basically went primitive and decided something in the ether that infests every molecule in the US holds blacks back from their rightful place in society.

    In short, they don’t think blacks can help themselves when it comes to controlling their behavior because of this magical and malign force, and thus it’s not worth noticing much less discussing the possibility that there are a number of cultural practices within their control that produce such abysmal outcomes.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Arclight

    Social media is the main cause of the embrace of wokeness. The many failures of government programs and policies to help Blacks were well known by the 1990s.

    Big media combined with the our schools, institutions and churches have been promoting woke ideology for decades. In the past, before social media, there was no echo chamber and no easy way for people to virtue signal about their woke status, and less fear of being blacklisted for their opinions.

    Social media has enabled progressives to target and blacklist people who blaspheme against wokeness. This has created a climate of fear which results in increased virtue signaling in an attempt to protect oneself from being cancelled.

    Another important factor is demographics...Today the vast majority of Americans under the age of 55 benefit from wokeness....just 24% are straight white men, and only 12% are married white females ....so 60% of Americans benefit from wokeness today

  73. @Hapalong Cassidy
    @anonymous

    I’ve never bought into the published stats that murder rates are higher in Latin America than Africa. I think that most of Africa has dubious record-keeping ability, which tends to understate the true number of homicides. South Africa being relatively more advanced than most other African nations means they keep more accurate records - hence their very high murder rate.

    Replies: @James Speaks, @Colin Wright, @Reg Cæsar

    ‘…I think that most of Africa has dubious record-keeping ability, which tends to understate the true number of homicides. South Africa being relatively more advanced than most other African nations means they keep more accurate records – hence their very high murder rate.’

    I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right. At the same time, traditional social structures may not have collapsed in much of black Africa, so perhaps their homicide rates really aren’t all that high.

  74. @Cagey Beast
    @guest007

    Washington DC is Emerald City, the mother of all Green Zones.

    Replies: @guest007

    Another joke about the greater DC area are the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @guest007

    Not always true, I know of one tall prominent building in Arlington in an area too urban for the high security fence and there's some first floor retail shops before there's the guarded security checkpoint. The clue is that it's got a State Department Credit Union ATM telling us it's a CIA shop outside of McLean.

    Replies: @Guest007

    , @Twinkie
    @guest007


    the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.
     
    These days there are many such places in Fairfax and Loudoun Counties. Another dead giveaway at one particularly large facility are large boulders along the perimeter that serve as unobtrusive vehicle barriers.

    My favorite though is the NRO HQ in a highly commercial suburban area with Wegman’s, Walmart, Chick-fil-A, etc. around. Digital spooks gotta eat chicken sandwiches too.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Jim Don Bob

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @guest007


    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.
     
    This is a science at Disney:


    https://insidethemagic.net/2022/02/disney-go-away-green-lp1/


    https://mickeyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/6ba48bf6e39c389a74ac82247e2d2e37-e1624387959515-539x340.jpg
  75. at around 20,000 people killed per year, the number of murders the last few years is actually about the same as the all time peak numbers from decades earlier. the difference is ‘rate’, but that’s because democrats have flooded the country with an extra 100 million people since 1980.

    in general the streets are NOT any less violent right now than they were in 1980 or 1990. factoring in improvement in emergency room medicine, and they’re at least as dangerous today as at any time in history. thousands of handgun shootings per year that would be murders back then are only attempted murders now.

    this matches up with what’s happening in Mexico, where they have a sucky third world country without the infrastructure which criminals can count on in the US. in America they’re sent directly to a nearby hospital so their handgun wounds don’t cause them to bleed to death. in Mexico they just die. and so Mexico has the highest murder numbers it’s ever had, right now, today.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @prime noticer

    If one is going to claim that the ratio of attempted murder/violent assaults to murders has changed since 1990, then one needs to provide a cite or some numbers to back up the claim instead of speculation. In looking at the data for DC, the number of reported felony assaults (would include attempted murders) has gone down while the population has gone up.

    Mexico has twice the homicides in 2020 as compared to the U.S (44k to 25K) with one third the population. Having more violent drug gangs who keep their violence out of the border helps along with having more incompetent police.

    Please try to learn to use Google instead of pointless speculation.

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Lowry

  76. @guest007
    @Mike Tre

    In 1991 there was 15,000 reported violent crimes in DC compared to 8k in 2019. Also, the reported number of homicides went up 15% in 2021 versus 2020 but assaults with a weapon only went up 3%.
    You could have looed this up yourself instead of speculating to support your theory. If one wanted to correct for demographics, then one could add up DC and Prince Georges County Maryland.

    However, the murder rate in PG had been going down from 2002 to 2013 before going back up.

    https://www.livestories.com/statistics/maryland/prince-george's-county-homicide-assault-deaths-mortality

    And there are roughly 60 law enforcement organizations in DC that can arrest you. The joke with metro police is since they are the one who answers the phone when one dials 911, they are the real police. I also found out that DC itself has three separate full time bomb squads (Metro police, secret service, and WMATA (transit)). I guess that deal with a bomb in a subway tunnel is a speciality that DC pays extra to have. There are also the bomb squads in the surrounding counties along with the military EOD units.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike Tre, @Reg Cæsar

    “In 1991 there was 15,000 reported violent crimes in DC compared to 8k in 2019. Also, the reported number of homicides went up 15% in 2021 versus 2020 but assaults with a weapon only went up 3%.
    You could have looed this up yourself instead of speculating to support your theory. ”

    None of this even addresses my “theory.” I said shootings, not reported violent crimes. Big difference.

    “However, the murder rate in PG had been going down from 2002 to 2013 before going back up. ”

    This was the trend in most metro areas during the same time period.

    • Replies: @Guest007
    @Mike Tre

    If one is going to claim that attempted murders went up while murders went down and violent assaults went down, then one is going to need citations and data analysis and just not pointless speculation.

    Also, if one is going to claim that the most violent prone have left a city due to changing demographics, then one is going to have to find where they went. One should be able to find a county or city where the homicide rate went up near NYC, DC, Los Angeles when the homicide rates were doing down in those cities. Please try to provide data and cites instead of pointless speculation.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

  77. @prosa123
    @Mike Tre

    Now compare total shootings. Advances in emergency care have reduced the number of gunshot fatalities across the board in large cities since the early 90’s.

    Counteracted at least in part by more high-capacity magazines leading to more multiple hits.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @J.Ross

    “Counteracted at least in part by more high-capacity magazines leading to more multiple hits. ”

    Nonsense. 13 round magazines have been around since the 1920’s. Further, you’re not familiar with Sailer’s Law, I take it.

  78. @Hapalong Cassidy
    @anonymous

    I’ve never bought into the published stats that murder rates are higher in Latin America than Africa. I think that most of Africa has dubious record-keeping ability, which tends to understate the true number of homicides. South Africa being relatively more advanced than most other African nations means they keep more accurate records - hence their very high murder rate.

    Replies: @James Speaks, @Colin Wright, @Reg Cæsar

    I’ve never bought into the published stats that murder rates are higher in Latin America than Africa.

    Outside South Africa and several exploding capital cities, Africa is like the rural South. There is tighter social control. They know how to keep their miscreants in line.

    The problems come when you take such people out of their environment and place them in the looser white man’s world. Indeed, the same is probably true of Central America and Brazil.

    They don’t “hate our freedoms”, but they can’t handle them, either.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Reg Cæsar

    A Peace Corps volunteer once described why Africa wasn't more chaotic: two kids were cutting up, and an elder saw them, whacked their heads, yelled at them for a bit, and they stopped. The elder was not a blood relative or a family member by marriage. In that system, elders are most literally your elders -- everyone who is older than you. And they're all responsible for keeping you in line. The American variant is to have the same kids but with no one around. The same writer pointed to the same system to explain the economic stagnation: an African got some help and training from the Peace Corps to start a bakery. His elder (this time a blood relative) observed that our hero had bread, and that the family "needed" bread (it's not clear how urgent was this need), and so demanded the young baker's entire stock for free, and of course got it. The family smothers, but the family also smothers.

  79. The line for Native Americans is tied with Asians for the lowest. Are Natives really that not-murderous? They live in rural areas and own guns. Is their suicide rate sky-high instead?

    • Replies: @guest007
    @Rob

    That is the problem with using a graph of total numbers instead of per capita homicides. The graphy would also be on a log scale to see real differences.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  80. @prime noticer
    at around 20,000 people killed per year, the number of murders the last few years is actually about the same as the all time peak numbers from decades earlier. the difference is 'rate', but that's because democrats have flooded the country with an extra 100 million people since 1980.

    in general the streets are NOT any less violent right now than they were in 1980 or 1990. factoring in improvement in emergency room medicine, and they're at least as dangerous today as at any time in history. thousands of handgun shootings per year that would be murders back then are only attempted murders now.

    this matches up with what's happening in Mexico, where they have a sucky third world country without the infrastructure which criminals can count on in the US. in America they're sent directly to a nearby hospital so their handgun wounds don't cause them to bleed to death. in Mexico they just die. and so Mexico has the highest murder numbers it's ever had, right now, today.

    Replies: @guest007

    If one is going to claim that the ratio of attempted murder/violent assaults to murders has changed since 1990, then one needs to provide a cite or some numbers to back up the claim instead of speculation. In looking at the data for DC, the number of reported felony assaults (would include attempted murders) has gone down while the population has gone up.

    Mexico has twice the homicides in 2020 as compared to the U.S (44k to 25K) with one third the population. Having more violent drug gangs who keep their violence out of the border helps along with having more incompetent police.

    Please try to learn to use Google instead of pointless speculation.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    @guest007

    there's no speculation. all medical professionals would state the same. thousands of handgun shooting victims per year now as saved whereas in the past they would have died. handguns mainly work by poking holes in you, and most people hit by handgun fire don't drop dead on the spot, they actually turn and run. lots of them bleed to death. it's much harder to save people from shotgun and rifle wounds.

    when some random guy shoots another random guy but the guy who gets shot doesn't die, and the police have no suspect, which is often the case now with clearance rates around 50% in some cities, there's no charge and no official number goes into any record keeping system. so that's how the official number of attempted murders and assaults goes down and doesn't match the shooting numbers. this is aside from the fact that in democrat controlled cities, the officials just plain lie about the numbers now sometimes, and participation with FBI nation data collection is declining.

    we use murders because it's hard to hide dead bodies, so there's always something to physically touch, see, and count when cadavers start showing up. like guessing about how life was in different historical periods, we first reference tax records of the era, since that was the most important thing to keep track of and is typically the most accurate thing you can find.

    i've been doing this stuff for 30 years. i didn't make up anything out of thin air and have been checking internet sources on these topics for decades.

    Replies: @Guest007

    , @Lowry
    @guest007

    Prime Noticer has good points though. Studies in US (sorry, I don't have the cites) indicate that taking into account improved ER/trauma techniques, equipment, processes, etc. from the early 90s through recent years, the murder rate should be 3x-4x higher. Even cutting such estimates in half yields current per capita murder rates in many cities on par with or even exceeding early 90s highs. Last year, Philadelphia with a similar sized pop. as it had in the early 90s exceeded its prior highest murder years from the 90s--and this is without taking into account improvements in ER/trauma treatment.

    MSM never mentions improved ER/trauma treatment as helping keep murder rates down. Also, never mentioned is demographic changes in cities (except to say gentrification is bad) and how that affects crime. DC being a case in point with massive demographic changes over the last 30 years. Criemstop prevents such changes from being explored.

    Nonetheless, most all crime did go down over the past 30 years--until recently. Still, one gets the suspicion that big city Police Depts (not wanting to rock things with local pols) will revert to their old habit of discounting or mislabelling crimes to help their stats.

  81. @Rob
    The line for Native Americans is tied with Asians for the lowest. Are Natives really that not-murderous? They live in rural areas and own guns. Is their suicide rate sky-high instead?

    Replies: @guest007

    That is the problem with using a graph of total numbers instead of per capita homicides. The graphy would also be on a log scale to see real differences.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @guest007

    Log scale visually understates big changes.

    Log scale is good for depicting major long term differences, but if you want to show that homicides went up a lot in 2020, log scale is bad compared to regular scale.

  82. @guest007
    @Rob

    That is the problem with using a graph of total numbers instead of per capita homicides. The graphy would also be on a log scale to see real differences.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Log scale visually understates big changes.

    Log scale is good for depicting major long term differences, but if you want to show that homicides went up a lot in 2020, log scale is bad compared to regular scale.

  83. @Corvinus
    @Anon

    “My theories:”

    Right, your opinions.

    “Dysgenic breeding is leaving blacks even more repugnant to each other than usual, causing conflicts.”

    Replace blacks with lower class people regardless of race.

    “Letting a lot of blacks out of prison in liberal states during Covid has meant a lot of killing among blacks. This trend should be most noticeable in states where they emptied out their prisons.”

    Replace blacks with felons.

    “Legalization of drugs has caused more blacks to go off their heads while under the influence, causing them to kill each other. This effect should be most noticeable in states that have legalized drugs.”

    Replace blacks with people.

    “Social media has created a new way for blacks to be rude to each other, sparking conflicts that would not have happened before phones.”

    Replace blacks with people.

    “In fact, this greater exposure to white culture and material wealth is causing most of the 3rd world to want to move to America.”

    There is no such thing as “white culture”, just culture.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    There is no such thing as “white culture”, just culture.

    Replace “white” with “black” “African-American”?

    • Replies: @Russ
    @Reg Cæsar


    Replace “white” with “black” “African-American”?
     
    That was all I needed to stop every last dime previously sent to the Smithsonian. (As if the freshly printed Biden money won't more than compensate for it.)
    , @Corvinus
    @Reg Cæsar

    That is African-American culture, a mix of African, southern slave, and American culture.

    There is also German culture, and Greek Culture, and Vietnamese culture.

    Is there a "white" culture"? No.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  84. @Emil Nikola Richard
    Trivia: on Stevie Wonder's album "Hotter than July" there is no song called hotter than july.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISbkwLvrUDM

    Replies: @Kratoklastes

    True, but “It’s hotter than July” is the second line of lyric from “Master Blaster (Jammin’)“.

    When it comes to blind black men, Stevie Wonder’s a’ight, but Clayton Bigsby is the best.

  85. @guest007
    @Mike Tre

    In 1991 there was 15,000 reported violent crimes in DC compared to 8k in 2019. Also, the reported number of homicides went up 15% in 2021 versus 2020 but assaults with a weapon only went up 3%.
    You could have looed this up yourself instead of speculating to support your theory. If one wanted to correct for demographics, then one could add up DC and Prince Georges County Maryland.

    However, the murder rate in PG had been going down from 2002 to 2013 before going back up.

    https://www.livestories.com/statistics/maryland/prince-george's-county-homicide-assault-deaths-mortality

    And there are roughly 60 law enforcement organizations in DC that can arrest you. The joke with metro police is since they are the one who answers the phone when one dials 911, they are the real police. I also found out that DC itself has three separate full time bomb squads (Metro police, secret service, and WMATA (transit)). I guess that deal with a bomb in a subway tunnel is a speciality that DC pays extra to have. There are also the bomb squads in the surrounding counties along with the military EOD units.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mike Tre, @Reg Cæsar

    You could have looed this up yourself…

    Instead, you looed it up quite well yourself:

    [MORE]

  86. Blacks appear to suffer from SAP (Seasonal Affective Psycopathy). I was under the impression that they were imported to work the southern plantations because of their heat tolerance as well as their tolerance for malaria.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Hunky Dory Honky

    'Blacks appear to suffer from SAP (Seasonal Affective Psycopathy). I was under the impression that they were imported to work the southern plantations because of their heat tolerance as well as their tolerance for malaria.'

    They were imported because they were for sale.

  87. @Reg Cæsar
    @Hapalong Cassidy


    I’ve never bought into the published stats that murder rates are higher in Latin America than Africa.
     
    Outside South Africa and several exploding capital cities, Africa is like the rural South. There is tighter social control. They know how to keep their miscreants in line.

    The problems come when you take such people out of their environment and place them in the looser white man's world. Indeed, the same is probably true of Central America and Brazil.

    They don't "hate our freedoms", but they can't handle them, either.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    A Peace Corps volunteer once described why Africa wasn’t more chaotic: two kids were cutting up, and an elder saw them, whacked their heads, yelled at them for a bit, and they stopped. The elder was not a blood relative or a family member by marriage. In that system, elders are most literally your elders — everyone who is older than you. And they’re all responsible for keeping you in line. The American variant is to have the same kids but with no one around. The same writer pointed to the same system to explain the economic stagnation: an African got some help and training from the Peace Corps to start a bakery. His elder (this time a blood relative) observed that our hero had bread, and that the family “needed” bread (it’s not clear how urgent was this need), and so demanded the young baker’s entire stock for free, and of course got it. The family smothers, but the family also smothers.

  88. @prosa123
    @Mike Tre

    Now compare total shootings. Advances in emergency care have reduced the number of gunshot fatalities across the board in large cities since the early 90’s.

    Counteracted at least in part by more high-capacity magazines leading to more multiple hits.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @J.Ross

    >magazines cause accuracy

    You’re holding the gun wrong.

  89. @Steve Sailer
    @guest007

    After 9/11, federal government agencies added a lot of armed men, which did a lot for DC real estate values. That the US capital had large numbers of murders within a couple of miles of the US Capitol in the later 20th Century was absurd. Eventually, absurdities are dealt with.

    Replies: @guest007, @J.Ross

    eventually absurdities are dealt with

    i want to believe

  90. @Reg Cæsar
    @Corvinus


    There is no such thing as “white culture”, just culture.
     
    Replace "white" with "black" "African-American"?

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/A1IYPb13YAL.jpg

    Replies: @Russ, @Corvinus

    Replace “white” with “black” “African-American”?

    That was all I needed to stop every last dime previously sent to the Smithsonian. (As if the freshly printed Biden money won’t more than compensate for it.)

  91. @Mike Tre
    @guest007

    "In 1991 there was 15,000 reported violent crimes in DC compared to 8k in 2019. Also, the reported number of homicides went up 15% in 2021 versus 2020 but assaults with a weapon only went up 3%.
    You could have looed this up yourself instead of speculating to support your theory. "

    None of this even addresses my "theory." I said shootings, not reported violent crimes. Big difference.

    "However, the murder rate in PG had been going down from 2002 to 2013 before going back up. "

    This was the trend in most metro areas during the same time period.

    Replies: @Guest007

    If one is going to claim that attempted murders went up while murders went down and violent assaults went down, then one is going to need citations and data analysis and just not pointless speculation.

    Also, if one is going to claim that the most violent prone have left a city due to changing demographics, then one is going to have to find where they went. One should be able to find a county or city where the homicide rate went up near NYC, DC, Los Angeles when the homicide rates were doing down in those cities. Please try to provide data and cites instead of pointless speculation.

    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @Guest007

    No problem. Start here:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/

  92. @YetAnotherAnon
    @Sean

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWMLWenUsAAtw3i.jpg

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian, @Sean

    It is barely possible to think of any war or anti terrorist operation (EG school and theatre sieges) where Russia was not profligate with its own peoples lives. As Ali said of Joe Frazier they ‘get angry when you miss them’.

  93. @guest007
    @Cagey Beast

    Another joke about the greater DC area are the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Twinkie, @Reg Cæsar

    Not always true, I know of one tall prominent building in Arlington in an area too urban for the high security fence and there’s some first floor retail shops before there’s the guarded security checkpoint. The clue is that it’s got a State Department Credit Union ATM telling us it’s a CIA shop outside of McLean.

    • Replies: @Guest007
    @That Would Be Telling

    I believe the building you refer to was a Defense Intelligence Agency building in Arlington. I also believe that it has moved. There used to be such a building across the street from Nationals Park.

    Replies: @Twinkie

  94. @guest007
    @prime noticer

    If one is going to claim that the ratio of attempted murder/violent assaults to murders has changed since 1990, then one needs to provide a cite or some numbers to back up the claim instead of speculation. In looking at the data for DC, the number of reported felony assaults (would include attempted murders) has gone down while the population has gone up.

    Mexico has twice the homicides in 2020 as compared to the U.S (44k to 25K) with one third the population. Having more violent drug gangs who keep their violence out of the border helps along with having more incompetent police.

    Please try to learn to use Google instead of pointless speculation.

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Lowry

    there’s no speculation. all medical professionals would state the same. thousands of handgun shooting victims per year now as saved whereas in the past they would have died. handguns mainly work by poking holes in you, and most people hit by handgun fire don’t drop dead on the spot, they actually turn and run. lots of them bleed to death. it’s much harder to save people from shotgun and rifle wounds.

    when some random guy shoots another random guy but the guy who gets shot doesn’t die, and the police have no suspect, which is often the case now with clearance rates around 50% in some cities, there’s no charge and no official number goes into any record keeping system. so that’s how the official number of attempted murders and assaults goes down and doesn’t match the shooting numbers. this is aside from the fact that in democrat controlled cities, the officials just plain lie about the numbers now sometimes, and participation with FBI nation data collection is declining.

    we use murders because it’s hard to hide dead bodies, so there’s always something to physically touch, see, and count when cadavers start showing up. like guessing about how life was in different historical periods, we first reference tax records of the era, since that was the most important thing to keep track of and is typically the most accurate thing you can find.

    i’ve been doing this stuff for 30 years. i didn’t make up anything out of thin air and have been checking internet sources on these topics for decades.

    • Replies: @Guest007
    @prime noticer

    Why not provide a cite for one's speculation. If the number of shooting never changes there should be a multitude of studies and surveys that show this. Please provide a link from a .edu or .gov website that proves your point. This is the second request. The number of attempted murders has not gone up to balance the shootings.

    Replies: @J.Ross

  95. i would guess that now that mass shooting are way up in the hood, probably due to exuberance as Steve says, in addition to semi auto handguns with big magazines, the amount of people hit is a lot higher than the total attempted murder charges handed out by democrat AGs.

    when some guy sprays a crowd and hits 17 people, killing 2, he usually doesn’t get 15 attempted murder charges. but EMTs and hospitals do get 15 new patients immediately. again, that’s if they get some suspect, which sometimes they don’t.

    another dumb statistical concept is that being a police officer is actually not that dangerous of a job, compared to roofers or lumberjacks or other jobs where you can fall off of something high. oh yeah? do you put on kevlar and holster your glock before going into the office every morning? why not? i thought police didn’t have a dangerous job? let’s take away all their armor and weapons and then see how not dangerous their job is.

  96. @That Would Be Telling
    @guest007

    Not always true, I know of one tall prominent building in Arlington in an area too urban for the high security fence and there's some first floor retail shops before there's the guarded security checkpoint. The clue is that it's got a State Department Credit Union ATM telling us it's a CIA shop outside of McLean.

    Replies: @Guest007

    I believe the building you refer to was a Defense Intelligence Agency building in Arlington. I also believe that it has moved. There used to be such a building across the street from Nationals Park.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Guest007


    I believe the building you refer to was a Defense Intelligence Agency building in Arlington.
     
    You are correct. There used to be armed security in front 24/7 (usually with MP5). Lots of antennae and dishes on that roof.

    Replies: @Guest007

  97. @Reg Cæsar
    @Corvinus


    There is no such thing as “white culture”, just culture.
     
    Replace "white" with "black" "African-American"?

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/A1IYPb13YAL.jpg

    Replies: @Russ, @Corvinus

    That is African-American culture, a mix of African, southern slave, and American culture.

    There is also German culture, and Greek Culture, and Vietnamese culture.

    Is there a “white” culture”? No.

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Corvinus


    Is there a “white” culture”? No.
     
    No, there are dozens. Hundreds, in fact.


    https://jakubmarian.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/father-european-languages.jpg



    But American-- and African-- blacks will tell you there is a white culture, and that you are in denial. It's happened to me.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  98. @Bardon Kaldian
    @YetAnotherAnon

    https://i.redd.it/13nomoi6sl771.png

    https://i.redd.it/go0i85x8z7s71.jpg

    Replies: @nebulafox

    Russia is a massively difficult country to run, and the governmental structures often reflect the weakness of rulers in getting things done rather than the other way around. Directly invade? You are cooked. Apply pressure on the periphery, and let things internally go their own way, you aren’t.

    Mind, my take is very simple: Russia (and Iran) are second-tier annoyances with whom we need to cut whatever deals need to be cut so we can extract ourselves from Europe and the Middle East and focus exclusively on China, which should be considered an equal superpower now-and even there, power projection ain’t going to be what it used to be after 30 years of mismanagement. At worst, it’ll be a matter of saving the country from the times ahead. My opinion of giving 6.1 billion to the Azov Batallion while more Americans are thrown into poverty and trying to kiss Saudi ass instead of opening our own pipelines need not be stated.

    (We do not need a garrison in South Korea, for example. They do not want reunification-and in any case, it’s pretty clear that KJU is going to be around for a long time now, and he’s purged anybody who is thinking of cutting a deal with Beijing at the cost of his regime’s existence and possibly economic revival. In general, the Pivot to Asia neglected… actually treating Asian allies with the same level of solicitude that we’ve given to NATO freeloaders out of Boomer nostalgia, and also went for breadth instead of the selective depth I’d favor. But that’s my unprofessional take, nothing more.)

    • Agree: J.Ross, Twinkie
  99. @prime noticer
    @guest007

    there's no speculation. all medical professionals would state the same. thousands of handgun shooting victims per year now as saved whereas in the past they would have died. handguns mainly work by poking holes in you, and most people hit by handgun fire don't drop dead on the spot, they actually turn and run. lots of them bleed to death. it's much harder to save people from shotgun and rifle wounds.

    when some random guy shoots another random guy but the guy who gets shot doesn't die, and the police have no suspect, which is often the case now with clearance rates around 50% in some cities, there's no charge and no official number goes into any record keeping system. so that's how the official number of attempted murders and assaults goes down and doesn't match the shooting numbers. this is aside from the fact that in democrat controlled cities, the officials just plain lie about the numbers now sometimes, and participation with FBI nation data collection is declining.

    we use murders because it's hard to hide dead bodies, so there's always something to physically touch, see, and count when cadavers start showing up. like guessing about how life was in different historical periods, we first reference tax records of the era, since that was the most important thing to keep track of and is typically the most accurate thing you can find.

    i've been doing this stuff for 30 years. i didn't make up anything out of thin air and have been checking internet sources on these topics for decades.

    Replies: @Guest007

    Why not provide a cite for one’s speculation. If the number of shooting never changes there should be a multitude of studies and surveys that show this. Please provide a link from a .edu or .gov website that proves your point. This is the second request. The number of attempted murders has not gone up to balance the shootings.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Guest007

    He explained it to you and you didn't understand the explanation.

    Replies: @Guest007

  100. American INDIANS? What happened there? Is word Native suddenly verboten?

  101. @ginger bread man
    Can you do a graph for NYC?

    Did the homicide rate go up there as much as the rest of the country?

    Replies: @Anonymous, @fish

    Can you do a graph for NYC?

    How bout one for Hotlanta…

    Atlanta Subway customer shoots dead female worker for putting too much MAYO on their sandwich

    …cuz this is the ISteviest thing ever.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10957183/One-employee-shot-dead-injured-customer-opens-fire-Subway-store-Atlanta.html

  102. @Guest007
    @Mike Tre

    If one is going to claim that attempted murders went up while murders went down and violent assaults went down, then one is going to need citations and data analysis and just not pointless speculation.

    Also, if one is going to claim that the most violent prone have left a city due to changing demographics, then one is going to have to find where they went. One should be able to find a county or city where the homicide rate went up near NYC, DC, Los Angeles when the homicide rates were doing down in those cities. Please try to provide data and cites instead of pointless speculation.

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    No problem. Start here:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/

  103. @Guest007
    @prime noticer

    Why not provide a cite for one's speculation. If the number of shooting never changes there should be a multitude of studies and surveys that show this. Please provide a link from a .edu or .gov website that proves your point. This is the second request. The number of attempted murders has not gone up to balance the shootings.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    He explained it to you and you didn’t understand the explanation.

    • Replies: @Guest007
    @J.Ross

    He did not explain and used no data. He speculated based upon a decrease in homicides since 1990 without looking at whether there was an increase in attempted homicides. If one could not be saved by emergency medicine in 1990 but can be in 2020, then one still needs medical care and those shooting cannot be ignored.

    Without data or cites it is just baseless speculation.

    Replies: @J.Ross

  104. @Anon
    @J.Ross

    >Nobody is mobilizing over the enablement of Cool Cat Wine Aunts who were never getting married anyway

    So you're admitting this decision is going to lead to a bunch more births out of wedlock? Good to know the pro-life side is making America better!

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    “Millions of stupid selfish reckless people, men and women, chose to have sex without taking the pill or using a condom, and now the women are pregnant. You won’t let them murder and chop up the innocent helpless babies whom they created, so YOU are the one making America worse!”

    Great argument.

  105. @Arclight
    @Alec Leamas (working from home)

    I think that the single biggest reason the woke/white supremacy theory picked up massive steam in recent years is essentially a progressive mental crackup over the fact no one at any point on the political spectrum would say that decades of pro-black social and economic policies have yielded anything close to the desired result. The left resolutely believes that smart public policy can perfect people and society, and when confronted with a segment of the population that seems largely immune to a wide range of policy interventions they basically went primitive and decided something in the ether that infests every molecule in the US holds blacks back from their rightful place in society.

    In short, they don't think blacks can help themselves when it comes to controlling their behavior because of this magical and malign force, and thus it's not worth noticing much less discussing the possibility that there are a number of cultural practices within their control that produce such abysmal outcomes.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Social media is the main cause of the embrace of wokeness. The many failures of government programs and policies to help Blacks were well known by the 1990s.

    Big media combined with the our schools, institutions and churches have been promoting woke ideology for decades. In the past, before social media, there was no echo chamber and no easy way for people to virtue signal about their woke status, and less fear of being blacklisted for their opinions.

    Social media has enabled progressives to target and blacklist people who blaspheme against wokeness. This has created a climate of fear which results in increased virtue signaling in an attempt to protect oneself from being cancelled.

    Another important factor is demographics…Today the vast majority of Americans under the age of 55 benefit from wokeness….just 24% are straight white men, and only 12% are married white females ….so 60% of Americans benefit from wokeness today

  106. @guest007
    @prime noticer

    If one is going to claim that the ratio of attempted murder/violent assaults to murders has changed since 1990, then one needs to provide a cite or some numbers to back up the claim instead of speculation. In looking at the data for DC, the number of reported felony assaults (would include attempted murders) has gone down while the population has gone up.

    Mexico has twice the homicides in 2020 as compared to the U.S (44k to 25K) with one third the population. Having more violent drug gangs who keep their violence out of the border helps along with having more incompetent police.

    Please try to learn to use Google instead of pointless speculation.

    Replies: @prime noticer, @Lowry

    Prime Noticer has good points though. Studies in US (sorry, I don’t have the cites) indicate that taking into account improved ER/trauma techniques, equipment, processes, etc. from the early 90s through recent years, the murder rate should be 3x-4x higher. Even cutting such estimates in half yields current per capita murder rates in many cities on par with or even exceeding early 90s highs. Last year, Philadelphia with a similar sized pop. as it had in the early 90s exceeded its prior highest murder years from the 90s–and this is without taking into account improvements in ER/trauma treatment.

    MSM never mentions improved ER/trauma treatment as helping keep murder rates down. Also, never mentioned is demographic changes in cities (except to say gentrification is bad) and how that affects crime. DC being a case in point with massive demographic changes over the last 30 years. Criemstop prevents such changes from being explored.

    Nonetheless, most all crime did go down over the past 30 years–until recently. Still, one gets the suspicion that big city Police Depts (not wanting to rock things with local pols) will revert to their old habit of discounting or mislabelling crimes to help their stats.

  107. @guest007
    @Henry Canaday

    In 2021 DC had 226 homicides. In 1991 DC had 482 hoomicides. Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC. Also, the population in DC is 15% larger in 2022 than in 1991 (690k versus 610k).

    Replies: @Henry Canaday, @Mike Tre, @Twinkie

    Current DC is not like old Marion Barry DC

    DC is whiter than it was.

  108. @Guest007
    @That Would Be Telling

    I believe the building you refer to was a Defense Intelligence Agency building in Arlington. I also believe that it has moved. There used to be such a building across the street from Nationals Park.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    I believe the building you refer to was a Defense Intelligence Agency building in Arlington.

    You are correct. There used to be armed security in front 24/7 (usually with MP5). Lots of antennae and dishes on that roof.

    • Replies: @Guest007
    @Twinkie

    Part of that building is not Axios, the politics reporting services. I went to a meeting there for Axios to be part of a focus group. It is all open office and long tables. It would be a horrible place to work for anyone who is over 25.

  109. @guest007
    @Cagey Beast

    Another joke about the greater DC area are the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Twinkie, @Reg Cæsar

    the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.

    These days there are many such places in Fairfax and Loudoun Counties. Another dead giveaway at one particularly large facility are large boulders along the perimeter that serve as unobtrusive vehicle barriers.

    My favorite though is the NRO HQ in a highly commercial suburban area with Wegman’s, Walmart, Chick-fil-A, etc. around. Digital spooks gotta eat chicken sandwiches too.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @Twinkie


    NRO
     
    NRO = National Reconnaissance Office

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ba42Z0lCMAAfkzM.jpg
    , @Jim Don Bob
    @Twinkie

    Many moons ago, I worked at a SCIF near Norfolk VA and instead of boulders, the perimeter was surround by heavy steel cable strung somewhat loosely through very stout posts. I guess the idea was that the cable would absorb the energy of any inbound vehicle.

    New federal buildings have to be 88 feet back from the road, which I suppose is trunk bomb blast distance. The local federal courthouse is surrounded by concrete bollards near the curb.

    https://landscapearchitect.com/products/images/20183-57649-WT-PRODUCT-FOCUS--AUGUST-2020.jpg

    Replies: @Guest007

  110. @Corvinus
    @Reg Cæsar

    That is African-American culture, a mix of African, southern slave, and American culture.

    There is also German culture, and Greek Culture, and Vietnamese culture.

    Is there a "white" culture"? No.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Is there a “white” culture”? No.

    No, there are dozens. Hundreds, in fact.

    But American– and African– blacks will tell you there is a white culture, and that you are in denial. It’s happened to me.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Reg Cæsar

    That’s not white culture. Your map shows individual European countries that each have distinct cultural traits (in this case, language). Assuredly, there are commonalities within the European continent. So there is a level of cohesiveness.

    But as far as is their such a thing as white” culture? Well, no.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/18/opinions/american-culture-and-race-ford/index.html

  111. @guest007
    @Cagey Beast

    Another joke about the greater DC area are the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Twinkie, @Reg Cæsar

    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.

    This is a science at Disney:

    https://insidethemagic.net/2022/02/disney-go-away-green-lp1/

  112. @J.Ross
    @Guest007

    He explained it to you and you didn't understand the explanation.

    Replies: @Guest007

    He did not explain and used no data. He speculated based upon a decrease in homicides since 1990 without looking at whether there was an increase in attempted homicides. If one could not be saved by emergency medicine in 1990 but can be in 2020, then one still needs medical care and those shooting cannot be ignored.

    Without data or cites it is just baseless speculation.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Guest007

    See Lowry's comment. "Do you have a cite for the media not reporting that?" You're a fed but your folders are bland.

    Replies: @Guest007

  113. @Twinkie
    @Guest007


    I believe the building you refer to was a Defense Intelligence Agency building in Arlington.
     
    You are correct. There used to be armed security in front 24/7 (usually with MP5). Lots of antennae and dishes on that roof.

    Replies: @Guest007

    Part of that building is not Axios, the politics reporting services. I went to a meeting there for Axios to be part of a focus group. It is all open office and long tables. It would be a horrible place to work for anyone who is over 25.

  114. @Reg Cæsar
    @Corvinus


    Is there a “white” culture”? No.
     
    No, there are dozens. Hundreds, in fact.


    https://jakubmarian.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/father-european-languages.jpg



    But American-- and African-- blacks will tell you there is a white culture, and that you are in denial. It's happened to me.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    That’s not white culture. Your map shows individual European countries that each have distinct cultural traits (in this case, language). Assuredly, there are commonalities within the European continent. So there is a level of cohesiveness.

    But as far as is their such a thing as white” culture? Well, no.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/18/opinions/american-culture-and-race-ford/index.html

  115. @Twinkie
    @guest007


    the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.
     
    These days there are many such places in Fairfax and Loudoun Counties. Another dead giveaway at one particularly large facility are large boulders along the perimeter that serve as unobtrusive vehicle barriers.

    My favorite though is the NRO HQ in a highly commercial suburban area with Wegman’s, Walmart, Chick-fil-A, etc. around. Digital spooks gotta eat chicken sandwiches too.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Jim Don Bob

    NRO

    NRO = National Reconnaissance Office

  116. @Twinkie
    @guest007


    the number of buildings in the suburbs that are surrounded by high security fence, have multiple overlapping camera, and have a car entrance with the pop up barriers in case someone tries to run the gate. There are never any signs telling one what is in the building or why there is so much security.
    One joke is that the building tells you one thing: Go Away.
     
    These days there are many such places in Fairfax and Loudoun Counties. Another dead giveaway at one particularly large facility are large boulders along the perimeter that serve as unobtrusive vehicle barriers.

    My favorite though is the NRO HQ in a highly commercial suburban area with Wegman’s, Walmart, Chick-fil-A, etc. around. Digital spooks gotta eat chicken sandwiches too.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Jim Don Bob

    Many moons ago, I worked at a SCIF near Norfolk VA and instead of boulders, the perimeter was surround by heavy steel cable strung somewhat loosely through very stout posts. I guess the idea was that the cable would absorb the energy of any inbound vehicle.

    New federal buildings have to be 88 feet back from the road, which I suppose is trunk bomb blast distance. The local federal courthouse is surrounded by concrete bollards near the curb.

    • Replies: @Guest007
    @Jim Don Bob

    There are also requirements on the glass in the windows or in the strength of the door and window frames. Many of the brutalist buildings from the 1970's are the most at risk for car bombs due to the first or second floor being smaller than the higher floors. That creates a place for the shock wave to catch and "bounce" around.

  117. @Guest007
    @J.Ross

    He did not explain and used no data. He speculated based upon a decrease in homicides since 1990 without looking at whether there was an increase in attempted homicides. If one could not be saved by emergency medicine in 1990 but can be in 2020, then one still needs medical care and those shooting cannot be ignored.

    Without data or cites it is just baseless speculation.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    See Lowry’s comment. “Do you have a cite for the media not reporting that?” You’re a fed but your folders are bland.

    • Replies: @Guest007
    @J.Ross

    Lowry, without cites, claimed that emergency medicine is somehow saving those severely injured from shootings, etc without any increase in the attempt homicide rate. Cannot happen. If there has been so many people seeing this, then provide the cites. And if demographics change drove the data, then the surrounding inner suburbs should have seen increased murder/attempted murder rates.

    However, the data shows that as the murder rate goes down, the rate for attempted murder/aggravated assault has not gone up.

  118. Anonymous[973] • Disclaimer says:
    @Russ
    OT: U.S. colleges are ethnically cleansing America's White Kulaks.

    https://www.revolver.news/2022/06/colleges-are-ethnically-cleansing-americas-white-kulaks/

    Interesting confounding factors at work there, among the paucity of unproctored standardized test results in the wake of COVID, the lawsuits on behalf of Asian students, and Whites beginning to identify as other than White (the Elizabeth Warren prototype) in their own best interests.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Who would want to go to a college full of affirmative action admits anyway?

  119. @Jim Don Bob
    @Twinkie

    Many moons ago, I worked at a SCIF near Norfolk VA and instead of boulders, the perimeter was surround by heavy steel cable strung somewhat loosely through very stout posts. I guess the idea was that the cable would absorb the energy of any inbound vehicle.

    New federal buildings have to be 88 feet back from the road, which I suppose is trunk bomb blast distance. The local federal courthouse is surrounded by concrete bollards near the curb.

    https://landscapearchitect.com/products/images/20183-57649-WT-PRODUCT-FOCUS--AUGUST-2020.jpg

    Replies: @Guest007

    There are also requirements on the glass in the windows or in the strength of the door and window frames. Many of the brutalist buildings from the 1970’s are the most at risk for car bombs due to the first or second floor being smaller than the higher floors. That creates a place for the shock wave to catch and “bounce” around.

  120. @J.Ross
    @Guest007

    See Lowry's comment. "Do you have a cite for the media not reporting that?" You're a fed but your folders are bland.

    Replies: @Guest007

    Lowry, without cites, claimed that emergency medicine is somehow saving those severely injured from shootings, etc without any increase in the attempt homicide rate. Cannot happen. If there has been so many people seeing this, then provide the cites. And if demographics change drove the data, then the surrounding inner suburbs should have seen increased murder/attempted murder rates.

    However, the data shows that as the murder rate goes down, the rate for attempted murder/aggravated assault has not gone up.

  121. The US Constitution does not forbid dueling, and now that the Supreme Court has more or less endorsed carrying concealed weapons, it seems likely that we may see a revival of this historic practice, perhaps in the Senate, where small margins make all the difference.

    In 1838 Jonathan Cilley of Maine, who was a newbie in Congress and probably unfamiliar with southerners, was killed in a duel by Rep. William Graves of Kentucky. Graves narrowly escaped censure in the House, but a federal law was passed banning dueling in Washington, DC, which law, I believe, still stands.

    Apparently after this there was an attempted constitutional amendment to ban dueling in 1839, but it went nowhere. (Shouldn’t they try again now? I bet the Republicans would refuse to support the measure.)

    So it was handed down to the state legislatures. Some of them have recently enacted “stand your ground” laws that sound somewhat similar to re-legalization of dueling. Could we see these laws coming into play when incumbents see the results of hotely disputed elections in certain states?

    But why should rights that the Constitution gives to the People be taken over by state governments? Does the word People as used in the Constitution mean “state governments”?

    I think our experts in the Supreme Court on how many angels could dance on the head of a pin in 1776 ought to rule on this, because it seems to me that State governments have maybe made a whole lot of laws that are unconstitutional, or at least ought to be subject to periodic referenda by We the People.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Jonathan Mason

    The Constitution does not protect a right to duel and there are plenty of Constititional laws making duelling impossible. You probably think that warning shots are a thing.

  122. @Jonathan Mason
    The US Constitution does not forbid dueling, and now that the Supreme Court has more or less endorsed carrying concealed weapons, it seems likely that we may see a revival of this historic practice, perhaps in the Senate, where small margins make all the difference.

    In 1838 Jonathan Cilley of Maine, who was a newbie in Congress and probably unfamiliar with southerners, was killed in a duel by Rep. William Graves of Kentucky. Graves narrowly escaped censure in the House, but a federal law was passed banning dueling in Washington, DC, which law, I believe, still stands.

    Apparently after this there was an attempted constitutional amendment to ban dueling in 1839, but it went nowhere. (Shouldn't they try again now? I bet the Republicans would refuse to support the measure.)

    So it was handed down to the state legislatures. Some of them have recently enacted "stand your ground" laws that sound somewhat similar to re-legalization of dueling. Could we see these laws coming into play when incumbents see the results of hotely disputed elections in certain states?

    But why should rights that the Constitution gives to the People be taken over by state governments? Does the word People as used in the Constitution mean "state governments"?

    I think our experts in the Supreme Court on how many angels could dance on the head of a pin in 1776 ought to rule on this, because it seems to me that State governments have maybe made a whole lot of laws that are unconstitutional, or at least ought to be subject to periodic referenda by We the People.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    The Constitution does not protect a right to duel and there are plenty of Constititional laws making duelling impossible. You probably think that warning shots are a thing.

  123. Great chart, sent it to left-leaning people who were convinced by your data, though the persuaded tend to be the more quantitative and less ideologically committed.

  124. @Hunky Dory Honky
    Blacks appear to suffer from SAP (Seasonal Affective Psycopathy). I was under the impression that they were imported to work the southern plantations because of their heat tolerance as well as their tolerance for malaria.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘Blacks appear to suffer from SAP (Seasonal Affective Psycopathy). I was under the impression that they were imported to work the southern plantations because of their heat tolerance as well as their tolerance for malaria.’

    They were imported because they were for sale.

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