RSS
As I’ve been hollering since June, the media-endorsed Racial Reckoning drove up the murder rate hugely. So now the media is trying to palm off the blame on the pandemic. I’m sure it contributed in some complex fashion, but the obvious main cause was the George Floyd mourning process. A detailed analysis of the timing shows that the explosion in murders followed the fentanyl-assisted death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020. From the U. of Pennsylvania’s interactive website City Crime Stats:
The red line if 2020’s 7 day moving average per capita (100k) for homicides, the gray line is the average for 2015-2019, the pink area is the maximum reached during one of the previous five years.
Here are some more big cities:
Chicago’s Bloody Saturday, in which 18 were murdered in 24 hours, happened the weekend after George Floyd’s death on Memorial Day.
In formerly strongly policed NYC, in contrast, it apparently took criminals a couple of weeks after George Floyd’s death to figure out they were free to carry guns without much risk of being stopped and frisked.
In Los Angeles, which has been surprisingly peaceful over the last decade, it took about a month for murders to reach new peaks, then the killing went on into the fall.
In Philadelphia, there was a Chicago-style peak immediately at the end of May.
Houston had an unusually shooty pre-George Floyd period.
A few other cities where there was a lot of BLM and/or Antifa activity:
Milwaukee saw a lot of killings during the initial George Floyd mourning process, but things kind of calmed down (by Milwaukee’s standard of calmness) until the August 23rd police shooting of Jacob Blake in nearby Kenosha.
Portland had a calm spring, then had a lot of murders in the later summer as Antifa riots ground on.
I wish this website would post a graph aggregating their 25 city graphs.
But, yeah, the main reason for the huge increase in murders in 2020 was the Racial Reckoning.
Sometimes iSteve is like an airplane cockpit with steam gages for a dozen engines: You know damn well they’re all running hot, but now you can see the proof. Not that you need to look, but yeah, there it is.
Black people get shot by the cops all the time & nobody cares. The lockdown primed the George Floyd death to be the catalyst that it was. Tens of millions of people were not receiving income. I wasn’t receiving income for at least a couple of weeks until unemployment started kicking in. You had to remain persistent & apply every day for about 2 weeks straight because the servers were overwhelmed, so I’m sure there are millions of low IQ workers who never received unemployment compensation after the government decreed them unworthy of employment. It’s hard to remember some of the details because we all have different lived experiences. I’m sure black Americans were hit especially hard by the debacle of the unemployment compensation rollout. As per usual.
How many of these newly minted murderers were formerly hard workers tossed out of a job? How many were the usual grifters?
In cohesive, decent countries there is almost always a decrease in crime during times of national emergency.Replies: @Dan Smith
the copsother black people all the time & nobody cares.FIFY.
The Lockdown effect resulted in the explosive growth of the BLM movement across the globe. The Governments locked down the people, resulting in millions of jobless youths and closing down all social gatherings , churches and schools which resulted in social unrest with the only acceptable social gatherings being restricted to BLM protests. These protests were the only social gatherings permitted across America. Mandated mask wearing also helped increase lawless behaviors , making it easier to commit crimes and not get caught.
Homicides, suicides and drug deaths all increased due to the lockdown effect, along with increased depression, social isolation and bankruptcies.
Very easy to debunk the pandemic proposition by looking ot other rich nations that have been hit by covid as well.
Is Switzerland’s murder rate spiking? Denmark’s? Japan’s? non-urban America?
This media cocology is childishly simple to debunk
Gun murders were up 16% in 2020 before Floyd died. That would already have been a record setting increase. Maybe Steve’s point about the variability of winter shootings due to temperature was driving that. I haven’t compared a bunch of years from Jan to May to know how variable they normally are.
In a few of the cities, there was an early-mid-April spike. That most likely had to do with “spring training,” as DJ Akademiks puts it, the weather warming up, meaning the worthies coming out of hibernation to take out all the beefs they’ve stored up with each other all winter long on social media with hot lead.
Since most blacks lack middle-class manners, take offense easily, and are incapable of being sensitive to the feelings of others, they just ended up picking stupid fights with each other and shot it out.
The 2nd Amendment: Making Americans communities more polite every day.
The people driving all this feel safe. They don’t care about these deaths anymore than communists cared about the misery of the working class that their programs created.
You are missing the point. Blacks are taking casualties but they are taking and holding territory. If you look at it that way, blm not caring about black lives, makes complete sense.
Did you know that COVID got the Kennedys too?
Yes, whenever I’ve been unemployed is when I’ve gone out and murdered people the most. You’re brilliant. I smell Nobel Prize.
The lockdowns, not the pandemic, resulted in the mass rioting across the United States. Without the lockdowns the violent rioting would not have spread across our nation. The lockdowns created the dry tinder, a combination of jobless youths and millions of young people displaced due to schools across the nation closed, all social outlets forbidden with the exception of rioting. It was the lockdowns which crashed our economy , shuttered our schools and churches and created social unrest resulting in rioting and increased violence across America.
.
How many of these newly minted murderers were formerly hard workers tossed out of a job? How many were the usual grifters?
In cohesive, decent countries there is almost always a decrease in crime during times of national emergency.
Your graphs need more smoothing. Maybe go with 30-day moving averages.
-- SF warns that with so few tourists in town, criminals are increasingly targeting residents.
-- Good Samaritan Chinatown shopkeeper arrested in Oakland for firing gun into the air to break up mugging
Hey, give him a break, at least the Y Axis starts at 0 for a change! BTW I did see a story about Minneapolis officials sheepishly looking to maybe beef up its police again.
Also on the crime beat
— SF warns that with so few tourists in town, criminals are increasingly targeting residents.
— Good Samaritan Chinatown shopkeeper arrested in Oakland for firing gun into the air to break up mugging
It’s just a coincidence, nothing more.
And please report to Room 101!
One of the things about urban street violence is that it has its own escalatory logic.
The first round of excess murders occur, and then the retaliatory murders follow and so forth. Naturally, there are cases of mistaken identity and false suspicion, so the escalation can be exponential.
At some point it becomes apparent that the combination of passive beat policing and overwhelmed investigatory capacity combine to lower the risk of getting caught by law enforcement authorities – particularly if your murder victim is someone the loss of whom law enforcement wouldn’t mourn.
What eventually happens though is that the escalating murder and violent crime rate starts to claim “civilians” not involved in a life of street crimes.
According to the Washington Post’s database, this is not true.
And I’m sure (yes, sure) that the shootists are not poor workers put out by the unemployment process.
I’m also sure that 99% of the shootists are ex-cons who were let out because of Covid. This, after prisons were studied and it turned out that there was (a) a high rate of infection (b) a low rate of deaths and other serious complications. Because Covid isn’t terribly lethal, and most prisoners are young.
Also, I can’t remember exactly when, but the plain clothes unit was disbanded.
Related: there are a lot of crazy people just wandering around off their meds. Most are harmless (upsetting but harmless) but some are dangerous. They’ve stabbed & assaulted people. Since we can’t speak the truth this is now “violence against women.”
For the Establishment, this is a feature, not a bug. They want the criminals to kill one another.
From today’s Columbus Dispatch
“The two deaths early Thursday bring the city’s homicide total for 2021 so far to 30.
In 2020, the deadliest year on record in Columbus with a total 174 homicides, the city did not have its 30th homicide until April 10.
Franklin County Coroner Dr. Anahi Ortiz released a report Thursday morning covering the 2020 homicides occurring within the first nine months of the year. According to the report, there was a more than 40% increase in homicides over 2019.
The coroner’s report showed 75% of homicide victims were Black and 44% were under the age of 25. In 2019, the number of victims who were Black was about 60% and the number of victims under 25 was about 28%.”
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/crime/2021/02/18/two-killed-separate-overnight-incidents/6797133002/
I’m sorry but this is objectively impossible because of the timing. Plus without any lockdown we have abundant examples of the same scam being run in the same way over and over.
Clearly the fault of white supremacists with AR-15s, better start working on giving the gun control crowd their wish list.
Black people get shot by
the copsother black people all the time & nobody cares.FIFY.
If they wanted to keep crime down they should have required a DNA sample to get your covid unemployment bonus.
“the George Floyd mourning process”
This is a rather mild term that disguises well the smartassery within. It’s still not enough to justify the spectacle of naked old men playing grab ass in a dimly-lit clubhouse.
The social unrest and rioting resulted from the Lockowns , not directly from the death of Floyd.
The Lockdown effect resulted in the explosive growth of the BLM movement across the globe. The Governments locked down the people, resulting in millions of jobless youths and closing down all social gatherings , churches and schools which resulted in social unrest with the only acceptable social gatherings being restricted to BLM protests. These protests were the only social gatherings permitted across America. Mandated mask wearing also helped increase lawless behaviors , making it easier to commit crimes and not get caught.
Homicides, suicides and drug deaths all increased due to the lockdown effect, along with increased depression, social isolation and bankruptcies.
Especially you. It’s all about you. Not them.
Yeah, lots of people lost their income during the wuhan virus pandemic including me. It is understandable that some might try to survive by passing off chinese counterfeit bills if they had them. Of course that desperate choice wasn’t a good one. Hiding Chinese fentanyl in his body during his subsequent arrest proved to be his worst decision though.
I wonder if he ever lost a job to chinese outsourcing that started his spiral of bad luck and bad choices.
Poor guy.
Boo hoo. If a person doesn’t have enough money to sustain themselves for a few weeks then I would say you are living large or can’t manage money.
Though I live 30 minutes from Minneapolis, a dramatic rise in the Minneapolis murder rate affects me not at all. Such are the benefits of informal segregation.
Not that I like for possibly innocent citizens to lose their lives due to a flaw in the mourning process of some dude who died somewhere for some reason. But that’s a problem for the idiots in charge of the city/state/country.
https://twitter.com/TellYourSonThis/status/1362854521605672963
Absolutely awesome.
Figure 3a (page 24) in their academic paper has something like that. The problem is they only cover 50 days after the stay at home order. They include the same plot on page 2 of their Key Findings and Graphs. That link is broken, but the document is available here:
https://web.archive.org/web/20201115063238/https://citycrimestats.com/static/files/COVIDCrimeHighlights082120v2.pdf
Figure A1 (page 29) in the academic paper gives some useful context by showing the timelines for employment, mobility, and new COVID-19 cases. Page 3 of the key findings document has similar information, but omits employment. Again, the end date is too early for your analysis.
It is interesting that they focused on the aggregate data in the key findings document (i.e. appears on pages 1 and 2 of a 9 page document) yet don’t feel the need to present that on their web site.
Is there any chance you (or a sympathetic reader who is an academic, which I am not) could contact them and get the data to do it yourself?
They do offer the ability to create a chart with up to 9 cities for any given series. I think a judicious choice of cities and series (note that you can select both type, e.g. incidents, and category, e.g. homicides) would get you pretty close to what you were looking for. Maybe cover all 25 cities by creating 3 groups of cities with low/medium/high homicide (etc.) rates over that interval?
It’s the lack of zoning.
But Chicago had a relatively calm late August. That suggests the local killers made their way up the lake to Kenosha and/or Milwaukee. Stopping in Racine for kringle.
Helen of Troy’s got nothing on George Floyd.
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1362809171154857984Replies: @AnotherDad
Epstein?
To put it another way, fentanyl is the most powerful drug in the Universe.
Toxic social media is an interesting point. It’s entirely possible the rise in gun violence is due to a lot of black guys who were out of jobs and who had nothing to do but use social media to excess.
Since most blacks lack middle-class manners, take offense easily, and are incapable of being sensitive to the feelings of others, they just ended up picking stupid fights with each other and shot it out.
The 2nd Amendment: Making Americans communities more polite every day.
"The two deaths early Thursday bring the city's homicide total for 2021 so far to 30.
In 2020, the deadliest year on record in Columbus with a total 174 homicides, the city did not have its 30th homicide until April 10.
Franklin County Coroner Dr. Anahi Ortiz released a report Thursday morning covering the 2020 homicides occurring within the first nine months of the year. According to the report, there was a more than 40% increase in homicides over 2019.
The coroner's report showed 75% of homicide victims were Black and 44% were under the age of 25. In 2019, the number of victims who were Black was about 60% and the number of victims under 25 was about 28%."
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/crime/2021/02/18/two-killed-separate-overnight-incidents/6797133002/Replies: @Buffalo Joe
PSR, in most communities the loss of so many males under the age of 25 would not bode well for their population. Unfortunately, I would render a guess that most of the deceased left behind progeny, in some cases lots of heirs. That would be an interesting stat.
You’re a bit muddled here, despite having a valid point. Probably the biggest effect of the lockdowns as far as this was concerned was that a lot of people who would have otherwise been occupied with employment or education were now given the time to go out LARPing as Antifa and Black Lies Matter. It’s absurd to think that most of these crimes were committed by people who were distressed over losing a job. The worst of the criminals were perpetually unemployed long before CV-19 hit. But the big explosion of protests created an environment of righteousness where blacks looting a store could be passed off as “slavery reparations” or some other such crap. This environment would never have grown the way that it did if more people had been kept occupied working the job as a waiter and studying for a differential and integral calculus exam. People who were bored from sitting around too much created the cover for criminals to go out there and do their stuff.
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1362762652439764995
Floyd’s fentanyl has launched more hits than Helen’s face.
Perhaps so, George Floyd (PBUH & Rest in Powuh) was the first person in the world who died while infected with Covid (MBUY: Masks Be Upon You) who did not have his cause of death listed as such.
Or Pepe took your job. Not a problem in Owen Sound.
The true Minneapolis effect is when the molten cheese hidden inside the meat breaks through and scalds your throat.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/A%26Wrootbeer.JPG/800px-A%26Wrootbeer.JPG
How many of these newly minted murderers were formerly hard workers tossed out of a job? How many were the usual grifters?
In cohesive, decent countries there is almost always a decrease in crime during times of national emergency.Replies: @Dan Smith
Good point. What was the murder rate in 1936 compared to 1929?
Ooo”So now the media is trying to palm off the blame on the pandemic. I’m sure it contributed in some complex fashion”
Wow just wow, those sentences are beyond retarded. I hope you’re well compensated by China and/or the DNC for writing such puling drivel, Sailer. Or, perhaps, you’re more maudlin than even Limbaugh whilst under the influence of chemotherapy.
The brainless sentimentality wrought by chemo would make for an enlightening and provocative exploratory essay – though you doubtless lack the intellect and objectivity for such things anymore.
Trash.
Cops just shot and killed another white guy in a domestic dispute where I live, which ain’t no big city. That’s 3 white guys shot by white cops in the last 2 years, out here in the exurbs. I hear that cops shooting people is statistically insignificant. Well, then, all the statistical significance must be in my neighborhood.
Lower. By 1939, murders were down even more.
The country really pulled together during the New Deal.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1088644/homicide-suicide-rate-during-prohibition/
But notice how the decline did not start until the end of Prohibition (late 1933). Hard to disentangle those possible causes.
Thanks.
Cops just shot and killed another white guy in a domestic dispute where I live, which ain’t no big city.
How big was the resulting riot? Did your Target and WalMart get looted ? How many bookstores were torched?
That’s 3 white guys shot by white cops in the last 2 years, out here in the exurbs.
Not much of a body count, is it?
I hear that cops shooting people is statistically insignificant.
It is.
Well, then, all the statistical significance must be in my neighborhood.
Nope.
“As I’ve been hollering since June, the media-endorsed Racial Reckoning drove up the murder rate hugely.”
Speculation, not fact, Mr. Sailer.
“So now the media is trying to palm off the blame on the pandemic. I’m sure it contributed in some complex fashion…”
You mean the media is offering a reasonable explanation, one that you personally disagree with.
“but the obvious main cause was the George Floyd mourning process.”
You mean perhaps the main cause.
“A detailed analysis of the timing shows that the explosion in murders followed the fentanyl-assisted death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020.”
How convenient for you NOT to include the cop knee-to-neck component to this equation. Hence, you lose absolute credibility, along with the assumption that this event alone led to rampant killing.
All in the day’s work of narrative writing…
Something to consider is the body count/capability ratio. Those who announce the cops are shooting all the guys they can should consider that if the cops were really out for a body count, the cops could certainly rack up some far more impressive numbers.
Those who make such announcements have no interest in facts or numbers.
This is the tenth post by Steve blaming the rise in murders on the BLM protests. Of all the damage caused by the lockdowns , the destruction and deaths resulting from the riots pales in comparison to the deaths and despair resulting from the lockdowns. The increase in black murders by blacks in urban areas has zero impact on most Americans lives. White Americans have not been effected by it. Strange for Steve to obsess over this while White deaths of despair are soaring during the lockdowns as millions of whites lose their businesses and jobs due to the extended lockdowns.
Non-Whites have always regarded Blacks as prone to violence and this is why Whites spend most of their income to live far removed from Blacks and attend “good schools” so their children escape the violence of Blacks.
https://web.archive.org/web/20201115063238/https://citycrimestats.com/static/files/COVIDCrimeHighlights082120v2.pdf
Figure A1 (page 29) in the academic paper gives some useful context by showing the timelines for employment, mobility, and new COVID-19 cases. Page 3 of the key findings document has similar information, but omits employment. Again, the end date is too early for your analysis.
It is interesting that they focused on the aggregate data in the key findings document (i.e. appears on pages 1 and 2 of a 9 page document) yet don't feel the need to present that on their web site.
Is there any chance you (or a sympathetic reader who is an academic, which I am not) could contact them and get the data to do it yourself?
They do offer the ability to create a chart with up to 9 cities for any given series. I think a judicious choice of cities and series (note that you can select both type, e.g. incidents, and category, e.g. homicides) would get you pretty close to what you were looking for. Maybe cover all 25 cities by creating 3 groups of cities with low/medium/high homicide (etc.) rates over that interval?Replies: @res
That seems like an odd comment to Troll flag. Care to elaborate, Je Suis Omar Mateen? Or are you just annoyed about my COVID-19 post in another thread?
Anyone analyzing BULLSHIT-2020 numbers is either imbecile or troll. I gave you benefit of doubt by dubbing you troll. The alternative is you're an imbecile.
Your move, son.Replies: @res
Joe, in this particular community I doubt the loss of males will make much of a difference in reproduction rates. And the remaining males probably consider it a feature and not a bug.
This data series shows that well.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1088644/homicide-suicide-rate-during-prohibition/
But notice how the decline did not start until the end of Prohibition (late 1933). Hard to disentangle those possible causes.
Those who announce the cops are shooting all the guys they can should consider that if the cops were really out for a body count, the cops could certainly rack up some far more impressive numbers.
Those who make such announcements have no interest in facts or numbers.
https://chowhound3.cbsistatic.com/resize/61ab7475ca253c51668dcf38f17ecc7692345dc7/recipe_photos/29721_juicy_lucy_burger.jpg?fit=bounds&width=1200Replies: @Mr. Hack
That’s why they invented A & W root beer, served to you in a frosty mug – soothes the burn. 🙂
Speculation, not fact, Mr. Sailer.
"So now the media is trying to palm off the blame on the pandemic. I’m sure it contributed in some complex fashion..."
You mean the media is offering a reasonable explanation, one that you personally disagree with.
"but the obvious main cause was the George Floyd mourning process."
You mean perhaps the main cause.
"A detailed analysis of the timing shows that the explosion in murders followed the fentanyl-assisted death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020."
How convenient for you NOT to include the cop knee-to-neck component to this equation. Hence, you lose absolute credibility, along with the assumption that this event alone led to rampant killing.
All in the day's work of narrative writing...Replies: @Patrick McNally
It’s tedious to have to highlight the same obvious fact over and over again, but that knee-to-neck did not involve any pressure on the windpipe which is at the front of the throat. No shortage of oxygen would be caused in a normal person by this officially approved procedure of restraint. It’s difficult to say whether or not it may have had some negative effect on George Floyd who was shouting “I can’t breathe” before any officer laid a hand on him. There’s at least a theoretical possibility that the pressure on the side of Floyd’s neck may have aggravated his drugged up seizure condition and contributed to his death. But nothing about the officer’s restraining action was so inherently out of line with professional protocol to warrant the phony charges which have been made.
www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/us/knee-neck-george-floyd-death.amp.html
“It’s tedious to have to highlight the same obvious fact over and over again, but that knee-to-neck did not involve any pressure on the windpipe which is at the front of the throat.”
Citations are required here.
“It’s difficult to say whether or not it may have had some negative effect on George Floyd who was shouting “I can’t breathe” before any officer laid a hand on him.”
followed by….
“But nothing about the officer’s restraining action was so inherently out of line with professional protocol to warrant the phony charges which have been made.”
Patently false statements on your part.
httpsa://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5274334002
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/us/knee-neck-george-floyd-death.amp.html
Toxicology reported potentially lethal levels of fentanyl.
Your quotes state that neck restraint should be avoided; that there is no reason to use them. Doesn't mean it caused the death.Replies: @Corvinus
“That seems like an odd comment to Troll flag.”
Anyone analyzing BULLSHIT-2020 numbers is either imbecile or troll. I gave you benefit of doubt by dubbing you troll. The alternative is you’re an imbecile.
Your move, son.
The post you troll flagged was not analyzing COVID-19 numbers. So who is the imbecile? I think it speaks well of me that I figured out what you were annoyed about even though you troll flagged something irrelevant to that.
Anyone analyzing BULLSHIT-2020 numbers is either imbecile or troll. I gave you benefit of doubt by dubbing you troll. The alternative is you're an imbecile.
Your move, son.Replies: @res
Son, funny. But shows how little perceptiveness you possess.
The post you troll flagged was not analyzing COVID-19 numbers. So who is the imbecile? I think it speaks well of me that I figured out what you were annoyed about even though you troll flagged something irrelevant to that.
www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/us/knee-neck-george-floyd-death.amp.html
“The autopsy revealed no physical evidence suggesting that Mr. Floyd died of asphyxiation,” Hennepin County Medical Examiner Dr. Andrew Baker told the prosecutor’s office, according to the May 26 memo. The autopsy was incomplete, it said, pending a toxicology report.
Toxicology reported potentially lethal levels of fentanyl.
Your quotes state that neck restraint should be avoided; that there is no reason to use them. Doesn’t mean it caused the death.
Toxicology reported potentially lethal levels of fentanyl.
Your quotes state that neck restraint should be avoided; that there is no reason to use them. Doesn't mean it caused the death.Replies: @Corvinus
“Doesn’t mean it caused the death.”
It would NOT be accurate for anyone to say the questionable police tactic played a limited or no role in the death.
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/us/knee-neck-george-floyd-death.amp.html
It would also be accurate to say that his death was “caused by the police subdual and restraint in the setting of severe hypertensive atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and methamphetamine, and fentanyl intoxication”.