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The (Not So) Great Salt Lake City, UT V. Charlotte, NC Debate
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Screenshot 2015-10-23 20.33.43

One of superstar economist Raj Chetty’s often repeated truisms growing out of his huge analysis of millions of individual income tax returns of parents in 1996-2000 and their former dependents in 2011-2012 is that the Salt Lake City, Utah metropolitan area is a great place to raise your children while greater Charlotte, North Carolina is a terrible place.

I, personally, find things like this interesting enough to look into, although most journalists have taken Chetty’s assertions on faith.

In contrast, if the Utah Jazz were playing the Charlotte Hornets in the NBA Finals and a famous economist announced that his giant study suggested that Utah was going to win, his methodology would be subjected to in-depth scrutiny in the press. Because guys who like to think quantitatively care about predicting which city’s hired gladiators turn out to be better.

But when Chetty announces that Salt Lake City is a better place for your children’s future prosperity than Charlotte, well … he’s a MacArthur Genius and all that, so I guess his reasoning has to be bulletproof, right. And anyway, how about those Mets? And can Kansas City’s manager Ned Yost really win the World Series without prioritizing on-base percentage?

Personally, let me add, that I don’t think I’m particularly biased in the great Salt Lake City v. Charlotte debate. I don’t recall ever having been in Salt Lake City or Charlotte other than to change planes, so I’m pretty indifferent. I would imagine I feel modestly positive about both metropolises in the abstract. I’m more of a well-wisher of Salt Lake City than I am of Las Vegas and more favorable toward Charlotte than Miami. But I don’t think I’ve ever compared Salt Lake City to Charlotte until Chetty started hammering on how one is Good and one is Bad in 2013.

Above is one of Chetty’s graphs from his presentation at the Brookings Institution. Or, for instance, in a 2014 interview with the Minneapolis Fed, Chetty said:

For example, for children growing up in places like Salt Lake City, Utah, or San Jose, California, the odds of moving from the bottom fifth of the national income distribution to the top fifth are more than 12 percent or even 14 percent in some cases, more than virtually any other developed country for which we have data.

In contrast, in cities like Charlotte, North Carolina, Atlanta, Georgia, or Indianapolis, Indiana, a child’s odds of moving from the bottom fifth to the top fifth are less than 5 percent—less than any developed country for which we currently have data.

Within the United States, there’s this incredible spectrum of variation in social mobility, which means that we shouldn’t really think of social mobility purely at the national level. Is the U.S. the land of opportunity or not? That question doesn’t really have a clear answer. Rather, we need to think about it at a much more local level and try to understand why some places have much more mobility than others and what we can do about it.

But is Chetty overlooking some basic methodological problems with his research that pop out when you actually stop and think about Salt Lake City v. Charlotte?

First, one methodological problem with Chetty’s attempt to figure out the long run influence of growing up in one metropolitan area rather than another is that his comparison of parents’ income in 1996-2000 versus their children’s income in 2011-2012 is sensitive to local booms and busts:

Screenshot 2015-10-23 20.21.00

Here’s a graph of unemployment rates over the last 15 years. In 1996-2000, both Charlotte (red line) and Salt Lake City (blue line) had similarly low unemployment rates. Then they began diverging in the mid-2000s and Charlotte then got hammered by the crash of 2008, so there was a big difference in 2011-2012 when Chetty measured the next generation’s income. Since then that gap has narrowed somewhat, although by no means completely.

My guess is that while local suburban home construction traditionally plays a sizable role in both metro areas’ economies, Charlotte got hit worse by the Housing Bust because it is an economic hub of several industries that did well off homebuilding in the 1990s and early 200s, including retail banking, hardwood lumbering, and the furniture-making industry.

Housing booms tend to be good for wooded regions and Charlotte has a lot more trees than Salt Lake City.

The North Carolina furniture industry has pretty much been outsourced to Asia and it’s probably not coming back. (Here’s travel writer Paul Theroux’s pointed essay on how much economic damage outsourcing industry to Asia has done to the American South.)

Home prices in Charlotte didn’t get too out of control during the Housing Bubble, but the ambitious bank executives of Charlotte, who for decades had been creating numerous local jobs with their aggressive mergers that made Charlotte the #2 banking center of the U.S., bought the California mortgage bucketshops Countrywide and Golden West and the Wall Street dumb money operation Merrill Lynch just as the Crash was gearing up. And the locals have since paid a price in prosperity.

Now, it’s quite possible that Salt Lake City’s better economic performance in 2011-12 relative to 1996-2000 versus Charlotte’s change over the same time period reflects some deep rooted cultural or governmental difference that will continue to make SLC do well in income mobility and Charlotte do badly. Or it could be that this is heavily contingent upon the time periods Chetty happened to get his hands on the tax returns for.

I don’t know. But it would seem like a good idea fro somebody to try to find out more before President Hillary or President Jeb decides to re-engineer society based on Chetty’s pronouncements.

A second methodological problem is obvious from Chetty’s map: the red areas (low chance of a child at the national 20th percentile of income growing up in the 1990s making it to the 80th percentile as an adult in 2011-12) are pretty much where college football teams recruit cornerbacks. A lot of the change in income percentiles from one generation to the next is just random movement that can be modeled by regression toward the mean. A person around the 20th percentile in the Charlotte metro area, which is about 24% black, was more likely to be black in Charlotte than in Salt Lake City, which is of course one of the whitest metro areas in America.

I suppose it’s shockingly controversial for me to assert that blacks tend to regress toward a lower income mean than do whites, but it’s also self-evidently true. A black person at the national 20th percentile in income isn’t all that far below the black median, while a white person is substantially below the white median.

It would be a major theoretical challenge to dream up a plausible situation in which regression toward different racial means in income doesn’t account for a sizable fraction of Chetty’s findings.

The database of IRS returns that Chetty is working from is unprecedented. Since he’s working with taxpayer records provided at taxpayer expense, I think we owe it to ourselves to think harder than we have about what explains the results he’s come up with.

Or then again, we can continue to focus on more important things, like sports statistics.

Obviously, I’ve killed a lot of time in my life looking at sports statistics, but I’ve actually gotten better at it in thinking about statistics that really matter. In contrast, sports statistics seem to be turning into this kind of Safe Space for White Guys where they can investigate, reason and debate without getting fired for saying the wrong thing.

 
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  1. What’s up with Texas?

    • Replies: @MyNewUserName
    @E. Harding

    Fracking boom after the initial data snapshot?

  2. You could look at sports statistics as a kind of quantitative training camp. Nate Silver certainly used sports statistics as a springboard to taking on larger societal issues. I don’t really care for the political parts of five thirty eight though. Arguably there are some things you just don’t want to know about in quantitative detail, like how our society is turning into Beyond Thunderdome. Safer to read Zach Lowe.

  3. What about DC? Is that mainly tracking the children of a penniless but recently college-educated young white influx? Or is DC anomalously and under-reportedly good for poor blacks?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @timothy

    The DC metro area boomed between 1996-2000 and 2011-2012, in large part due to guys in the DC metro area failing to prevent 9/11. Thus, the War on Terror dumped huge amounts of money on the DC metro area.

    When you are deciding where to raise your children, always try to anticipate long chains of events in the future like the World Trade Centers being blown up and the taxpayers shoveling hundreds of billions into the DC area in response.

    Replies: @Romanian, @Thomas O. Meehan

  4. “But it would seem like a good idea fro somebody to try to find out more before President Hillary or President Jeb decides to re-engineer society based on Chetty’s pronouncements.”

    LOLZ. You could disprove Chetty a hundred times over – if they want to believe him, they will believe him, if you know what I mean. Arguments for mass immigration and amnesty have been disproved a hundred times at least, yet Bush and Clinton continue to believe them.

    As for Theroux’s story about de-industrialization in the American South, the problem isn’t that small Southern towns have lost their industry. That happens. The problem is that the people living in those small towns haven’t left, have reasons they don’t have to leave (welfare), and maybe couldn’t leave if they wanted to, since the jobs they’d be qualified to take elsewhere have all been taken by illegal immigrants.

    The Left can bullshit about the march in Selma all it wants. No matter how much they pretend to give a shit about the blacks of Selma, they sure as hell don’t want those blacks to move to New York, San Francisco, or Los Angeles to find work. They’d rather pay them welfare and keep them in Selma while imported illegal Mexican do their jobs more conscientiously, and for less.

    The best way to help the poor people in small Southern towns is to get them the hell out of those poor, small towns and get them to places where there is work. But there is no work to get them to, since the jobs they could be taking are all taken by illegals from Latin America.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Wilkey


    …since the jobs they’d be qualified to take elsewhere have all been taken by illegal immigrants.
     
    No, most of them were taken by legal immigrants.

    And that's even worse. You can always report an illegal.
  5. @timothy
    What about DC? Is that mainly tracking the children of a penniless but recently college-educated young white influx? Or is DC anomalously and under-reportedly good for poor blacks?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    The DC metro area boomed between 1996-2000 and 2011-2012, in large part due to guys in the DC metro area failing to prevent 9/11. Thus, the War on Terror dumped huge amounts of money on the DC metro area.

    When you are deciding where to raise your children, always try to anticipate long chains of events in the future like the World Trade Centers being blown up and the taxpayers shoveling hundreds of billions into the DC area in response.

    • Replies: @Romanian
    @Steve Sailer

    This is such an interesting comment. I never thought about it like that.

    , @Thomas O. Meehan
    @Steve Sailer

    Another form of replacement faces District of Columbia blacks beyond gentrification. They have been heavily replaced in the service labor market by foreign blacks directly from Africa. Somalis pump the gas, drive the taxis and stand behind the checkout counters. So many waiters and cooks are from elsewhere, if they were all deported at once, mass yuppie starvation would result. Not that this would be a bad thing mind you.

    Replies: @dcite

  6. This is a little OT but…

    I wonder is it better for your state to have one big city like Georgia has with Atlanta or to have several medium sized cities like North Carolina has. Atlanta has scale and status but North Carolina has a core that’s more spread out and which allows for more economic diversification, which I think would give it more resilience so I’m for NC. Any thoughts?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Irishman

    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn't be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

    By the way, has anybody ever studied frequent fliers as a class? What are their demographics, how do they vote, etc? On the rare occasions when I fly anywhere, the passengers who look like they know what they are doing strike me as a fairly distinctive group, but the term "frequent flier" never seems to have caught on as a demographic shorthand the way "soccer mom" has.

    Replies: @Anonym, @The Last Real Calvinist, @AndrewR, @WhatEvvs, @Hugh

  7. @Irishman
    This is a little OT but...

    I wonder is it better for your state to have one big city like Georgia has with Atlanta or to have several medium sized cities like North Carolina has. Atlanta has scale and status but North Carolina has a core that's more spread out and which allows for more economic diversification, which I think would give it more resilience so I'm for NC. Any thoughts?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

    By the way, has anybody ever studied frequent fliers as a class? What are their demographics, how do they vote, etc? On the rare occasions when I fly anywhere, the passengers who look like they know what they are doing strike me as a fairly distinctive group, but the term “frequent flier” never seems to have caught on as a demographic shorthand the way “soccer mom” has.

    • Replies: @Anonym
    @Steve Sailer

    I think you are on to something there Steve. Big cities also have the advantage of the best selection of goods and services. And future jobs. A kind of network effect I suppose you could say. The disadvantage is the traffic usually, and maybe pollution.

    http://www.frequentflier.com/demographics.htm

    Frequent fliers are mostly as you would expect - white, somewhat male, managers, professionals, sales people. Mostly in their 30s and up to retirement age. Well remunerated. Most would vote conservative I expect, to suit their demographics.

    Replies: @Ivy

    , @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Steve Sailer


    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

     

    This is an excellent question. But the answer has much to do with how you define 'winning'. In the past 20 years or so it's certainly arguable that mid-sized IA cities such as Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, plus Sioux Falls, SD, and Omaha, NE, which are both just across Iowa's borders, have done very well indeed. Sioux Falls has even topped some of those click-baity 'Best Places in USA to live' lists (although its weather is arguably even worse than MSP's), and Omaha has had some of the nation's best employment numbers. The greater Des Moines area has some of the USA's most affordable, pleasant suburban areas, e.g. Urbandale, Ankeny, Waukee, Johnston, etc. So in the context of your affordable family formation criteria, I think it's at least a wash.

    But I agree that if you want to feel as if you're in a 'real city', MSP dominates the Great Plains. I know from my own conversations with my peers when we were starting to make our way in the world that when we were asked 'So, what are you going to do after graduation?' reactions were quite different if MSP was the answer instead of Des Moines.

    The airport question is also interesting. When we Calvinists journey to Sioux County to visit the ancestral village, I do find myself wishing fervently it were in easy driving distance of MSP (which has flights to Asia, if not to Hong Kong directly). Instead, we've either got to take an extra flight down to Sioux Falls or Sioux City (and these little puddlejumper flights are stressful -- remote, unpleasant gate areas, frequent cancelations potentially ruining international itineraries, etc.), or drive over four hours from MSP. The situation is the same pretty much across Iowa, although if you live near Omaha you do have more choices. So if I were doing those kinds of long trips regularly, lack of proximity to an air hub would indeed be a significant quality-of-life burden.

    My guess is that many people who crave the Mountain West lifestyle end up living in or near Denver instead of in even more idyllic Wyoming or Montana for much the same reasons.

    , @AndrewR
    @Steve Sailer

    If I had to bet: Mostly in top income quintile if not decile, disproportionately white, probably tend to be more from blue states than red states but are more conservative than the average blue stater

    , @WhatEvvs
    @Steve Sailer

    Well, two novelists have taken on the subject, although one someone elliptically.

    The Accidental Tourist could be taken as a first stab. Anne Tyler is a fine writer, by the way. This guy thinks she is one of the greats:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/event/article-2941112/Anne-Tyler-Spool-Blue-Thread-review-Craig-Brown.html

    And then there's Kirn's Up In The Air. Book was better than the movie. A lot better.

    , @Hugh
    @Steve Sailer

    Let's not forget the revenue side when talking about Affordable Family Formation.

    A working couple will do best in a city that can offer jobs (and a choice of jobs) to both spouses who may work in very different industries.

    A city of 2 million is going to win out against one of half a million in providing such opportunities.

  8. @Steve Sailer
    @timothy

    The DC metro area boomed between 1996-2000 and 2011-2012, in large part due to guys in the DC metro area failing to prevent 9/11. Thus, the War on Terror dumped huge amounts of money on the DC metro area.

    When you are deciding where to raise your children, always try to anticipate long chains of events in the future like the World Trade Centers being blown up and the taxpayers shoveling hundreds of billions into the DC area in response.

    Replies: @Romanian, @Thomas O. Meehan

    This is such an interesting comment. I never thought about it like that.

  9. @Steve Sailer
    @Irishman

    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn't be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

    By the way, has anybody ever studied frequent fliers as a class? What are their demographics, how do they vote, etc? On the rare occasions when I fly anywhere, the passengers who look like they know what they are doing strike me as a fairly distinctive group, but the term "frequent flier" never seems to have caught on as a demographic shorthand the way "soccer mom" has.

    Replies: @Anonym, @The Last Real Calvinist, @AndrewR, @WhatEvvs, @Hugh

    I think you are on to something there Steve. Big cities also have the advantage of the best selection of goods and services. And future jobs. A kind of network effect I suppose you could say. The disadvantage is the traffic usually, and maybe pollution.

    http://www.frequentflier.com/demographics.htm

    Frequent fliers are mostly as you would expect – white, somewhat male, managers, professionals, sales people. Mostly in their 30s and up to retirement age. Well remunerated. Most would vote conservative I expect, to suit their demographics.

    • Replies: @Ivy
    @Anonym

    The fancy term re big cities is Agglomeration Economies.
    Think of that as somewhat analogous to critical mass, with skilled people instead of skilled atoms.
    The growth of the knowledge economy has had some interesting spillover effects. If you have more mobility options, why not live somewhere that you want such as around the Platinum Triangle near San Diego or in Santa Monica near the beach and restaurants?

  10. @Steve Sailer
    @Irishman

    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn't be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

    By the way, has anybody ever studied frequent fliers as a class? What are their demographics, how do they vote, etc? On the rare occasions when I fly anywhere, the passengers who look like they know what they are doing strike me as a fairly distinctive group, but the term "frequent flier" never seems to have caught on as a demographic shorthand the way "soccer mom" has.

    Replies: @Anonym, @The Last Real Calvinist, @AndrewR, @WhatEvvs, @Hugh

    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

    This is an excellent question. But the answer has much to do with how you define ‘winning’. In the past 20 years or so it’s certainly arguable that mid-sized IA cities such as Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, plus Sioux Falls, SD, and Omaha, NE, which are both just across Iowa’s borders, have done very well indeed. Sioux Falls has even topped some of those click-baity ‘Best Places in USA to live’ lists (although its weather is arguably even worse than MSP’s), and Omaha has had some of the nation’s best employment numbers. The greater Des Moines area has some of the USA’s most affordable, pleasant suburban areas, e.g. Urbandale, Ankeny, Waukee, Johnston, etc. So in the context of your affordable family formation criteria, I think it’s at least a wash.

    But I agree that if you want to feel as if you’re in a ‘real city’, MSP dominates the Great Plains. I know from my own conversations with my peers when we were starting to make our way in the world that when we were asked ‘So, what are you going to do after graduation?’ reactions were quite different if MSP was the answer instead of Des Moines.

    The airport question is also interesting. When we Calvinists journey to Sioux County to visit the ancestral village, I do find myself wishing fervently it were in easy driving distance of MSP (which has flights to Asia, if not to Hong Kong directly). Instead, we’ve either got to take an extra flight down to Sioux Falls or Sioux City (and these little puddlejumper flights are stressful — remote, unpleasant gate areas, frequent cancelations potentially ruining international itineraries, etc.), or drive over four hours from MSP. The situation is the same pretty much across Iowa, although if you live near Omaha you do have more choices. So if I were doing those kinds of long trips regularly, lack of proximity to an air hub would indeed be a significant quality-of-life burden.

    My guess is that many people who crave the Mountain West lifestyle end up living in or near Denver instead of in even more idyllic Wyoming or Montana for much the same reasons.

  11. In any situation graphed by a sinusoidal curve such as hours of sunlight in the day, the maximum rate of change in number of hours of sunlight occurs at the time of the equinoxes. At the solar minimum and maximum (the solstices) the rate of change is minimal. The first derivative is ninety degrees out of phase with the second derivative. I believe that Chetty’s analysis suffers from some blending regarding these two, i.e. velocity and maximum/minimum.

  12. You also have to take migration, both domestic and international, into account. The Charlotte MSA is over twice as big as the SLC MSA, yet Charlotte’s population actually grew faster in percentage terms. North Carolina gets tons of people moving here from up north, thus the joke that the town of Cary is an acronym (Containment Area for Relocated Yankees). Immigration tends to be (a) white, (b) Hispanic or (c) middle-class black, all of whom will tend to do better than the substantial native black population. It’s hard to think of a way in which a city with a large black population and a lot of immigration will do well under Chetty’s methodology.

    As for the divergent unemployment rates post-crash, perhaps one factor is that people are more likely to move to Charlotte without a job than they are to Salt Lake City? People continued moving here in droves even during the worst of the financial crisis.

  13. Housing booms tend to be good for wooded regions and Charlotte has a lot more trees than Salt Lake City

    You might want to give that sentence a rethink.

    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
    @Jeff Burton

    "You might want to give that sentence a rethink."

    To make sense of this I had to assume that you penned it while operating under the odd delusion that Steve Sailer is an eco-nut who is more concerned with the welfare of trees than of people. Am I correct?

  14. I do find myself wishing fervently it were in easy driving distance of MSP (which has flights to Asia, if not to Hong Kong directly).

    The MSP-Hong Kong route Northwest operated in the late ’90s set the record for the longest direct regular service of any airline. But it lasted only a year or two. Hong Kongers didn’t mind a transfer in Tokyo.

    Van service competes with air from MSP to the smaller cities with airports– Eau Claire, LaCrosse, Rochester, St Cloud, even Duluth. It’s really a coin-flip which is more– really, less– convenient.

    The best deal is to live fairly close to a large but non-hub airport, like Milwaukee’s. Cheaper fares. Des Moines, Omaha, etc, are stuck in the hell zone in between– not big like Milwaukee, not (reasonably) close to a big like Eau Claire.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    I disagree from a frequent fliers perspective. I lived in Austin for years and spent countless hours cooling my heels at DFW and Houston International. Sure you can get direct flights to certain places but they sell out quickly and they cost a ton.

    Living in Dallas, I have my choice of two great airports - Love and DFW. I can get anywhere without a connection and the cost is right. Additionally, I have my choice of jobs with Fortune 1000 companies if I decide to go client–side. Although I would love to move to a smaller city, I cannot because of the nature of the tech industry which forces me to consider new jobs every 2-4 years.

    , @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Reg Cæsar


    The MSP-Hong Kong route Northwest operated in the late ’90s set the record for the longest direct regular service of any airline.

     

    Yes, I remember this route -- I was already living in Hong Kong, but due to a number of exigencies, I never ended up being able to take advantage of it. And then, just like that, it was gone, never yet to return. C'est la vie, I guess.
  15. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    I do find myself wishing fervently it were in easy driving distance of MSP (which has flights to Asia, if not to Hong Kong directly).
     
    The MSP-Hong Kong route Northwest operated in the late '90s set the record for the longest direct regular service of any airline. But it lasted only a year or two. Hong Kongers didn't mind a transfer in Tokyo.

    Van service competes with air from MSP to the smaller cities with airports-- Eau Claire, LaCrosse, Rochester, St Cloud, even Duluth. It's really a coin-flip which is more-- really, less-- convenient.

    The best deal is to live fairly close to a large but non-hub airport, like Milwaukee's. Cheaper fares. Des Moines, Omaha, etc, are stuck in the hell zone in between-- not big like Milwaukee, not (reasonably) close to a big like Eau Claire.

    Replies: @Anon, @The Last Real Calvinist

    I disagree from a frequent fliers perspective. I lived in Austin for years and spent countless hours cooling my heels at DFW and Houston International. Sure you can get direct flights to certain places but they sell out quickly and they cost a ton.

    Living in Dallas, I have my choice of two great airports – Love and DFW. I can get anywhere without a connection and the cost is right. Additionally, I have my choice of jobs with Fortune 1000 companies if I decide to go client–side. Although I would love to move to a smaller city, I cannot because of the nature of the tech industry which forces me to consider new jobs every 2-4 years.

  16. @Steve Sailer
    @Irishman

    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn't be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

    By the way, has anybody ever studied frequent fliers as a class? What are their demographics, how do they vote, etc? On the rare occasions when I fly anywhere, the passengers who look like they know what they are doing strike me as a fairly distinctive group, but the term "frequent flier" never seems to have caught on as a demographic shorthand the way "soccer mom" has.

    Replies: @Anonym, @The Last Real Calvinist, @AndrewR, @WhatEvvs, @Hugh

    If I had to bet: Mostly in top income quintile if not decile, disproportionately white, probably tend to be more from blue states than red states but are more conservative than the average blue stater

  17. @Reg Cæsar

    I do find myself wishing fervently it were in easy driving distance of MSP (which has flights to Asia, if not to Hong Kong directly).
     
    The MSP-Hong Kong route Northwest operated in the late '90s set the record for the longest direct regular service of any airline. But it lasted only a year or two. Hong Kongers didn't mind a transfer in Tokyo.

    Van service competes with air from MSP to the smaller cities with airports-- Eau Claire, LaCrosse, Rochester, St Cloud, even Duluth. It's really a coin-flip which is more-- really, less-- convenient.

    The best deal is to live fairly close to a large but non-hub airport, like Milwaukee's. Cheaper fares. Des Moines, Omaha, etc, are stuck in the hell zone in between-- not big like Milwaukee, not (reasonably) close to a big like Eau Claire.

    Replies: @Anon, @The Last Real Calvinist

    The MSP-Hong Kong route Northwest operated in the late ’90s set the record for the longest direct regular service of any airline.

    Yes, I remember this route — I was already living in Hong Kong, but due to a number of exigencies, I never ended up being able to take advantage of it. And then, just like that, it was gone, never yet to return. C’est la vie, I guess.

  18. WhatEvvs [AKA "Internet Addict"] says:
    @Steve Sailer
    @Irishman

    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn't be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

    By the way, has anybody ever studied frequent fliers as a class? What are their demographics, how do they vote, etc? On the rare occasions when I fly anywhere, the passengers who look like they know what they are doing strike me as a fairly distinctive group, but the term "frequent flier" never seems to have caught on as a demographic shorthand the way "soccer mom" has.

    Replies: @Anonym, @The Last Real Calvinist, @AndrewR, @WhatEvvs, @Hugh

    Well, two novelists have taken on the subject, although one someone elliptically.

    The Accidental Tourist could be taken as a first stab. Anne Tyler is a fine writer, by the way. This guy thinks she is one of the greats:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/event/article-2941112/Anne-Tyler-Spool-Blue-Thread-review-Craig-Brown.html

    And then there’s Kirn’s Up In The Air. Book was better than the movie. A lot better.

  19. I’m willing to bet some of this “mobility” is due to taxed vs untaxed income. A young Asian working for a corporation in San Jose, paying a huge amount of tax, will often have parents that own a business paying very little tax. Their income may be higher than on the books but the brutal hours, use of family as virtual slave labor and the general awfulness of running a business in CA and the US generally will make it very unappealing to the kids to take over.

    This is very common in real life.

    • Replies: @WhatEvvs
    @Mike1

    Thanks for explaining this anomaly. I couldn't get why San Jose is such an outlier.

    Also, you brought up something massively important but virtually unremarked upon: family businesses. A lot of problems in the AA community stem from the fact that they don't do family businesses. They are always whining and demonstrating "give us jobs," and no one wants to point out that most of the businesses in the areas in which they predominate are family businesses which operate on a tiny margin and pay their 'employees' (kids) nothing.

    Then SJWs do everything they can to stop evil big box businesses from opening in their areas. Guess what, the big box businesses are the only places that give minorities jobs. This is happening in NYC, where the asshole De Blasio is preventing a Walmart from opening up, even though polls show most NYers support a Walmart.

  20. I saw a story the other day that listed the top 10 highest and lowest median income areas in the US. The San Jose area was #1 and San Francisco/Oakland #2. Both had median incomes around $72,000 per year. OTOH Sebring, Florida ( about half way between Palm Beach and Tampa) was near the bottom with a median income half that of San Francisco or San Jose.

    The problem is that the median income in San Francisco is almost poverty wages whereas you can buy a modest if decent home and own a car in Sebring, Florida on the median income there. It’s true you are going to have to drive 100 miles or so to Palm Beach or Orlando if you want fine dining or cultural activity but that might be preferable than having to use public transit to get around the Bay Area at night ( and owning a private automobile given rents and parking expense in the SF area on a median income problematic).

  21. @Jeff Burton
    Housing booms tend to be good for wooded regions and Charlotte has a lot more trees than Salt Lake City

    You might want to give that sentence a rethink.

    Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...

    “You might want to give that sentence a rethink.”

    To make sense of this I had to assume that you penned it while operating under the odd delusion that Steve Sailer is an eco-nut who is more concerned with the welfare of trees than of people. Am I correct?

  22. @Anonym
    @Steve Sailer

    I think you are on to something there Steve. Big cities also have the advantage of the best selection of goods and services. And future jobs. A kind of network effect I suppose you could say. The disadvantage is the traffic usually, and maybe pollution.

    http://www.frequentflier.com/demographics.htm

    Frequent fliers are mostly as you would expect - white, somewhat male, managers, professionals, sales people. Mostly in their 30s and up to retirement age. Well remunerated. Most would vote conservative I expect, to suit their demographics.

    Replies: @Ivy

    The fancy term re big cities is Agglomeration Economies.
    Think of that as somewhat analogous to critical mass, with skilled people instead of skilled atoms.
    The growth of the knowledge economy has had some interesting spillover effects. If you have more mobility options, why not live somewhere that you want such as around the Platinum Triangle near San Diego or in Santa Monica near the beach and restaurants?

  23. @Wilkey
    "But it would seem like a good idea fro somebody to try to find out more before President Hillary or President Jeb decides to re-engineer society based on Chetty’s pronouncements."

    LOLZ. You could disprove Chetty a hundred times over - if they want to believe him, they will believe him, if you know what I mean. Arguments for mass immigration and amnesty have been disproved a hundred times at least, yet Bush and Clinton continue to believe them.

    As for Theroux's story about de-industrialization in the American South, the problem isn't that small Southern towns have lost their industry. That happens. The problem is that the people living in those small towns haven't left, have reasons they don't have to leave (welfare), and maybe couldn't leave if they wanted to, since the jobs they'd be qualified to take elsewhere have all been taken by illegal immigrants.

    The Left can bullshit about the march in Selma all it wants. No matter how much they pretend to give a shit about the blacks of Selma, they sure as hell don't want those blacks to move to New York, San Francisco, or Los Angeles to find work. They'd rather pay them welfare and keep them in Selma while imported illegal Mexican do their jobs more conscientiously, and for less.

    The best way to help the poor people in small Southern towns is to get them the hell out of those poor, small towns and get them to places where there is work. But there is no work to get them to, since the jobs they could be taking are all taken by illegals from Latin America.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    …since the jobs they’d be qualified to take elsewhere have all been taken by illegal immigrants.

    No, most of them were taken by legal immigrants.

    And that’s even worse. You can always report an illegal.

  24. Had this conversation with some friends who are sometimes called Wall Street BSDs. Put hit this way; one guy’s Hamptons next door neighbor is Sir Paul McCartney. And the problem for big cities and states with lots of welfare obligations and programs is that long term white collar industries don’t physically have to be in a big city any more. In fact it’s financially sensible to be elsewhere due to high tax burdens. And they haven’t needed that kind of physical connection for a while. You can do your business in an office park in Florida or North Carolina as easily and way cheaper with less taxation than you can in lower Manhattan. Have heard otherwise smart people like Mike Bloomberg crow about how Manhattan’s restaurants,shows and cultural institutions are some big advantage. But those things are increasingly uniform and homogenized anyway. A good steak in NYC tastes no different in Fort Meyers. And dumb people like BillDeblasio still live in this economic fantasy that if he can hold enough BSDs over a hotel balcony in the manner of Suge Knight and Vanilla Ice, he can empty their pockets to pay for “affordable housing”. But the BSDs are going to leave, simply a question of when and where to, not if. History is littered with societies and cities that assumed yesterday’s economic conditions would hold tomorrow and really forever. Many have been proven wrong. 2015 America is no different. And i many ways worse because roughly 40% of the populace and 50% of the politicians are economically illiterate .

    • Replies: @vinny
    @Bugg

    This has been true for 20+ years and yet Manhattan, London, San Francisco, etc have never been more popular.

    In world where you can download every Beatles song instantly, why does your friend pay a premium to live next to Sir Paul?

    Replies: @Bugg, @ricpic

    , @Brutusale
    @Bugg

    Quite a few food writers say the best steakhouse in America is in Tampa.

  25. I’ve spent days in Salt Lake without seeing an Aferican. When I do they are behaving as the Romans do. Charlotte is one-third black.

    • Replies: @Wilkey
    @james wilson

    "I’ve spent days in Salt Lake without seeing an Aferican. When I do they are behaving as the Romans do. Charlotte is one-third black."

    LOL - how many decades ago was that? I grew up here. I was in elementary school 1982-88, and there was a single black kid in the entire school. Ditto for junior high. I think there were 3-4 in my high school, but I didn't see them much since I took honors and AP whenever I had the option. But two decades later and blacks are far, far more common. No matter where I am - downtown or a suburban shopping center - I see several a day. Not remotely as many blacks as in Charlotte, of course, but Salt Lake Metro will one day be as Hispanic as Charlotte is black, believe me. Hispanics here may outbreed the Mormons.

    I have visited Charlotte a few times on business, and I have to say I was impressed. I think North Carolina pols and voters are, in general, a lot more realistic and common sensical than Utah pols. They have not embraced amnesty and open borders in the way Utah has. North Carolina, iirc, actually bans illegals from attending 4-year colleges and universities. Utah, despite being so heavily Republican, was one of the first states in the country to give them driver's licenses and in-state tuition. The Mormon Church is very fond of kissing the asses of rich Mormons like the Huntsmans, Marriotts, and Holdings.

    Replies: @North Carolina Resident

  26. A person around the 20th percentile in the Charlotte metro area, which is about 24% black, was more likely to be black in Charlotte than in Salt Lake City, which is of course one of the whitest metro areas in America.

    Of course the inverse is true in Boston vis-a-vis Minneapolis, but why let statistics interfere with your inference of statistics?

  27. I grew up in the exurbs of charlotte. I can believe there is less mobility there than SLC.

    Charlotte is probably the most violent place in the state, and that lack of mobility is mainly due to the people living in it. Probably not a nuanced-sounding statement but my informal longitudinal study i live everyday reaffirms that for me.

  28. @E. Harding
    What's up with Texas?

    Replies: @MyNewUserName

    Fracking boom after the initial data snapshot?

  29. @Steve Sailer
    @timothy

    The DC metro area boomed between 1996-2000 and 2011-2012, in large part due to guys in the DC metro area failing to prevent 9/11. Thus, the War on Terror dumped huge amounts of money on the DC metro area.

    When you are deciding where to raise your children, always try to anticipate long chains of events in the future like the World Trade Centers being blown up and the taxpayers shoveling hundreds of billions into the DC area in response.

    Replies: @Romanian, @Thomas O. Meehan

    Another form of replacement faces District of Columbia blacks beyond gentrification. They have been heavily replaced in the service labor market by foreign blacks directly from Africa. Somalis pump the gas, drive the taxis and stand behind the checkout counters. So many waiters and cooks are from elsewhere, if they were all deported at once, mass yuppie starvation would result. Not that this would be a bad thing mind you.

    • Replies: @dcite
    @Thomas O. Meehan

    that's so true.

  30. Charlotte has a large airport which has led to a large immigrant population. Also the traffic can be terrible, which may be related. Doubtless they need more immigrants to build the roads that Americans won’t build.

  31. Imagine a community in which the bottom 80% earned $1000 per year and the top 20% earned $1,000,000 per year. Now imagine one in which the bottom 20% earned $1,000 dollars per year, the next quintile $1001, $1002, $1003 and the top quintile $1004. Wouldn’t upward mobility would be much easier in the more egalitarian society? What is being measured here?

  32. anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    “What’s up with Texas?”

    Not sure how you mean it… but the “high-mobility” west texas region is sparsely populated oil country or even national park type country (the Big Bend, area, for instance) for which these types of statistics are essentially meaningless, given the extremely small permanent population.

    Much of the “low-mobility” central Texas region is the Texas Hill Country, sort of the Texas version of Appalachia. (And yes, with considerable Scots-Irish.) Railroads often bypassed the Hill Country and good paved roads came late to the Hill Country. Unlike Appalachia with its mines, the was little population concentration. And though the population was poor, living was pretty good and the people for the most part didn’t “realize” just how poor they were… There is also a heavy German yeoman peasant influence in some of those counties (and a number of other such groups, Sorbs, Wendish, Czechs, Alsatians). Classic small town Texas. Austin is on the edge of the Hill Country.

    Central Texas:

    “…Central Texas contains the Texas Hill Country and corresponds to a physiographic section designation within the Edwards Plateau, in a geographic context…”

    Another issue here to confound statisticians is:

    “…The United States Army’s Fort Hood is in this region, and is the largest military installation in the nation.”

  33. @Bugg
    Had this conversation with some friends who are sometimes called Wall Street BSDs. Put hit this way; one guy's Hamptons next door neighbor is Sir Paul McCartney. And the problem for big cities and states with lots of welfare obligations and programs is that long term white collar industries don't physically have to be in a big city any more. In fact it's financially sensible to be elsewhere due to high tax burdens. And they haven't needed that kind of physical connection for a while. You can do your business in an office park in Florida or North Carolina as easily and way cheaper with less taxation than you can in lower Manhattan. Have heard otherwise smart people like Mike Bloomberg crow about how Manhattan's restaurants,shows and cultural institutions are some big advantage. But those things are increasingly uniform and homogenized anyway. A good steak in NYC tastes no different in Fort Meyers. And dumb people like BillDeblasio still live in this economic fantasy that if he can hold enough BSDs over a hotel balcony in the manner of Suge Knight and Vanilla Ice, he can empty their pockets to pay for "affordable housing". But the BSDs are going to leave, simply a question of when and where to, not if. History is littered with societies and cities that assumed yesterday's economic conditions would hold tomorrow and really forever. Many have been proven wrong. 2015 America is no different. And i many ways worse because roughly 40% of the populace and 50% of the politicians are economically illiterate .

    Replies: @vinny, @Brutusale

    This has been true for 20+ years and yet Manhattan, London, San Francisco, etc have never been more popular.

    In world where you can download every Beatles song instantly, why does your friend pay a premium to live next to Sir Paul?

    • Replies: @Bugg
    @vinny

    He likes him home in the Hamptons. It is beautiful, but even there he only god there in September and June because the crowds of gullible idiots make it as unlivable as NYC in the summer. But he has already decamped from the Upper East Side to the North Shore of LI for now, and is likely on his way to an office park and house nearby in the great beyond. You can hold wealthy people over the balcony for only so long before the decide it's not worth it. We are approaching that point. There will always be people with too much money and not much common sense, but that money doesn't last. Taxes, costive living and general pain in the ass are the hat trick pushing tax base out of the high tax cities and states.

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    , @ricpic
    @vinny

    Manhattan has always been a tremendous draw to the very young. By very young I am talking primarily about twenty somethings. This attraction of "the big city" may be easy to mock later in life but it is highly seductive to the young and especially the bright creative young, who can't hope to have a chance at the careers they dream of, out in the provinces. The lure of the big city fades quickly, especially with family formation. But the lure of world cities like NYC and London, the excitement of such places will always bring new waves of young energy to them. Their popularity with the hyper-rich is another matter. They are rarely "home" in any permanent sense to the uber-wealthy. They are places of recreation. And there too a Manhattan or a London will always offer more in the way of the best of the best than the actual home bases of the super-rich.

  34. Sports are a patriarchy under glass, to be broken in case of emergency.

  35. @Thomas O. Meehan
    @Steve Sailer

    Another form of replacement faces District of Columbia blacks beyond gentrification. They have been heavily replaced in the service labor market by foreign blacks directly from Africa. Somalis pump the gas, drive the taxis and stand behind the checkout counters. So many waiters and cooks are from elsewhere, if they were all deported at once, mass yuppie starvation would result. Not that this would be a bad thing mind you.

    Replies: @dcite

    that’s so true.

  36. @vinny
    @Bugg

    This has been true for 20+ years and yet Manhattan, London, San Francisco, etc have never been more popular.

    In world where you can download every Beatles song instantly, why does your friend pay a premium to live next to Sir Paul?

    Replies: @Bugg, @ricpic

    He likes him home in the Hamptons. It is beautiful, but even there he only god there in September and June because the crowds of gullible idiots make it as unlivable as NYC in the summer. But he has already decamped from the Upper East Side to the North Shore of LI for now, and is likely on his way to an office park and house nearby in the great beyond. You can hold wealthy people over the balcony for only so long before the decide it’s not worth it. We are approaching that point. There will always be people with too much money and not much common sense, but that money doesn’t last. Taxes, costive living and general pain in the ass are the hat trick pushing tax base out of the high tax cities and states.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    @Bugg

    Many of the "rich" can arrange their affairs to avoid, not evade, taxation. About 10 years ago, the geniuses in Maryland passed a supplemental income tax on millionaires. There were 3000 fewer millionaire tax filers the very next tear. Who wudda thunk it?

  37. @Steve Sailer
    @Irishman

    My guess would be that the long-term trend has been toward bigger cities winning, so Minnesota with one big urban area does better than Iowa with multiple smaller ones. I wouldn't be surprised if it has to do with airports. Frequent fliers are crucial figures in the economy and their lives are typically easier living near a major airport with direct flights like Minneapolis rather than having to make connections like if they lived in Des Moines.

    By the way, has anybody ever studied frequent fliers as a class? What are their demographics, how do they vote, etc? On the rare occasions when I fly anywhere, the passengers who look like they know what they are doing strike me as a fairly distinctive group, but the term "frequent flier" never seems to have caught on as a demographic shorthand the way "soccer mom" has.

    Replies: @Anonym, @The Last Real Calvinist, @AndrewR, @WhatEvvs, @Hugh

    Let’s not forget the revenue side when talking about Affordable Family Formation.

    A working couple will do best in a city that can offer jobs (and a choice of jobs) to both spouses who may work in very different industries.

    A city of 2 million is going to win out against one of half a million in providing such opportunities.

  38. WhatEvvs [AKA "Internet Addict"] says:
    @Mike1
    I'm willing to bet some of this "mobility" is due to taxed vs untaxed income. A young Asian working for a corporation in San Jose, paying a huge amount of tax, will often have parents that own a business paying very little tax. Their income may be higher than on the books but the brutal hours, use of family as virtual slave labor and the general awfulness of running a business in CA and the US generally will make it very unappealing to the kids to take over.

    This is very common in real life.

    Replies: @WhatEvvs

    Thanks for explaining this anomaly. I couldn’t get why San Jose is such an outlier.

    Also, you brought up something massively important but virtually unremarked upon: family businesses. A lot of problems in the AA community stem from the fact that they don’t do family businesses. They are always whining and demonstrating “give us jobs,” and no one wants to point out that most of the businesses in the areas in which they predominate are family businesses which operate on a tiny margin and pay their ’employees’ (kids) nothing.

    Then SJWs do everything they can to stop evil big box businesses from opening in their areas. Guess what, the big box businesses are the only places that give minorities jobs. This is happening in NYC, where the asshole De Blasio is preventing a Walmart from opening up, even though polls show most NYers support a Walmart.

  39. @Bugg
    Had this conversation with some friends who are sometimes called Wall Street BSDs. Put hit this way; one guy's Hamptons next door neighbor is Sir Paul McCartney. And the problem for big cities and states with lots of welfare obligations and programs is that long term white collar industries don't physically have to be in a big city any more. In fact it's financially sensible to be elsewhere due to high tax burdens. And they haven't needed that kind of physical connection for a while. You can do your business in an office park in Florida or North Carolina as easily and way cheaper with less taxation than you can in lower Manhattan. Have heard otherwise smart people like Mike Bloomberg crow about how Manhattan's restaurants,shows and cultural institutions are some big advantage. But those things are increasingly uniform and homogenized anyway. A good steak in NYC tastes no different in Fort Meyers. And dumb people like BillDeblasio still live in this economic fantasy that if he can hold enough BSDs over a hotel balcony in the manner of Suge Knight and Vanilla Ice, he can empty their pockets to pay for "affordable housing". But the BSDs are going to leave, simply a question of when and where to, not if. History is littered with societies and cities that assumed yesterday's economic conditions would hold tomorrow and really forever. Many have been proven wrong. 2015 America is no different. And i many ways worse because roughly 40% of the populace and 50% of the politicians are economically illiterate .

    Replies: @vinny, @Brutusale

    Quite a few food writers say the best steakhouse in America is in Tampa.

  40. @Bugg
    @vinny

    He likes him home in the Hamptons. It is beautiful, but even there he only god there in September and June because the crowds of gullible idiots make it as unlivable as NYC in the summer. But he has already decamped from the Upper East Side to the North Shore of LI for now, and is likely on his way to an office park and house nearby in the great beyond. You can hold wealthy people over the balcony for only so long before the decide it's not worth it. We are approaching that point. There will always be people with too much money and not much common sense, but that money doesn't last. Taxes, costive living and general pain in the ass are the hat trick pushing tax base out of the high tax cities and states.

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    Many of the “rich” can arrange their affairs to avoid, not evade, taxation. About 10 years ago, the geniuses in Maryland passed a supplemental income tax on millionaires. There were 3000 fewer millionaire tax filers the very next tear. Who wudda thunk it?

  41. @james wilson
    I've spent days in Salt Lake without seeing an Aferican. When I do they are behaving as the Romans do. Charlotte is one-third black.

    Replies: @Wilkey

    “I’ve spent days in Salt Lake without seeing an Aferican. When I do they are behaving as the Romans do. Charlotte is one-third black.”

    LOL – how many decades ago was that? I grew up here. I was in elementary school 1982-88, and there was a single black kid in the entire school. Ditto for junior high. I think there were 3-4 in my high school, but I didn’t see them much since I took honors and AP whenever I had the option. But two decades later and blacks are far, far more common. No matter where I am – downtown or a suburban shopping center – I see several a day. Not remotely as many blacks as in Charlotte, of course, but Salt Lake Metro will one day be as Hispanic as Charlotte is black, believe me. Hispanics here may outbreed the Mormons.

    I have visited Charlotte a few times on business, and I have to say I was impressed. I think North Carolina pols and voters are, in general, a lot more realistic and common sensical than Utah pols. They have not embraced amnesty and open borders in the way Utah has. North Carolina, iirc, actually bans illegals from attending 4-year colleges and universities. Utah, despite being so heavily Republican, was one of the first states in the country to give them driver’s licenses and in-state tuition. The Mormon Church is very fond of kissing the asses of rich Mormons like the Huntsmans, Marriotts, and Holdings.

    • Replies: @North Carolina Resident
    @Wilkey

    North Carolina doesn't ban illegals from attending colleges. In April 2015, a Republican NC Senator introduced a bill to give illegals in state tuition.

    Also, remember for many years, NC allowed illegals to get licenses. The law was changed, but that used to be a huge magnet.

  42. @Wilkey
    @james wilson

    "I’ve spent days in Salt Lake without seeing an Aferican. When I do they are behaving as the Romans do. Charlotte is one-third black."

    LOL - how many decades ago was that? I grew up here. I was in elementary school 1982-88, and there was a single black kid in the entire school. Ditto for junior high. I think there were 3-4 in my high school, but I didn't see them much since I took honors and AP whenever I had the option. But two decades later and blacks are far, far more common. No matter where I am - downtown or a suburban shopping center - I see several a day. Not remotely as many blacks as in Charlotte, of course, but Salt Lake Metro will one day be as Hispanic as Charlotte is black, believe me. Hispanics here may outbreed the Mormons.

    I have visited Charlotte a few times on business, and I have to say I was impressed. I think North Carolina pols and voters are, in general, a lot more realistic and common sensical than Utah pols. They have not embraced amnesty and open borders in the way Utah has. North Carolina, iirc, actually bans illegals from attending 4-year colleges and universities. Utah, despite being so heavily Republican, was one of the first states in the country to give them driver's licenses and in-state tuition. The Mormon Church is very fond of kissing the asses of rich Mormons like the Huntsmans, Marriotts, and Holdings.

    Replies: @North Carolina Resident

    North Carolina doesn’t ban illegals from attending colleges. In April 2015, a Republican NC Senator introduced a bill to give illegals in state tuition.

    Also, remember for many years, NC allowed illegals to get licenses. The law was changed, but that used to be a huge magnet.

  43. ricpic [AKA "rcpic"] says:
    @vinny
    @Bugg

    This has been true for 20+ years and yet Manhattan, London, San Francisco, etc have never been more popular.

    In world where you can download every Beatles song instantly, why does your friend pay a premium to live next to Sir Paul?

    Replies: @Bugg, @ricpic

    Manhattan has always been a tremendous draw to the very young. By very young I am talking primarily about twenty somethings. This attraction of “the big city” may be easy to mock later in life but it is highly seductive to the young and especially the bright creative young, who can’t hope to have a chance at the careers they dream of, out in the provinces. The lure of the big city fades quickly, especially with family formation. But the lure of world cities like NYC and London, the excitement of such places will always bring new waves of young energy to them. Their popularity with the hyper-rich is another matter. They are rarely “home” in any permanent sense to the uber-wealthy. They are places of recreation. And there too a Manhattan or a London will always offer more in the way of the best of the best than the actual home bases of the super-rich.

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