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During the rise of Black Lives Matter, the total number of murder victims in the U.S. increased 24.8% from 2014 to 2016. This is not widely known, so I’m putting the data and links in one convenient place.

Here’s a screenshot of the FBI’s latest trend table of the number of murder victims:

With criminal justice “reform” much in the news, it’s important to point out a fact that the prestige press has gone out of its way to not bring to the attention of readers: that the early returns on this Establishment hobbyhorse have been disastrous: after a number of years of stability or decline, the total number of murder victims in the U.S., according to FBI statistics, suddenly shot up 24.8% from 2014 (the Year of Ferguson and Black Lives Matters) to 2016 (Obama’s last stand):

The low point in recent years was 2013, when only 12,253 people were murdered. 2014 was almost as peaceful, with only 12,278 murders. But then the number of murder victims went up by 12.2% in 2015 and another 11.2% in 2016 for a total increase of 24.8%:

Murder Victims: FBI UCR Bush B B O O O O O BLM 8/14 O O T T
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total 15087 14196 14224 13752 13164 12795 12888 12253 12278 13780 15318 15195 14123
Y to Y Chg -5.9% 0.2% -3.3% -4.3% -2.8% 0.7% -4.9% 0.2% 12.2% 11.2% -0.8% -7.1%
Diff vs. 2014 22.9% 15.6% 15.8% 12.0% 7.2% 4.2% 5.0% -0.2% 0.0% 12.2% 24.8% 23.8% 15.0%
Diff vs. 2014 2,809 1,918 1,946 1,474 886 517 610 -25 0 1,502 3,040 2,917 1,845
Cumulative incremental murders since 2014 0 1,502 4,542 7,459 9,304

If the number of homicides had stayed stable at 2014’s 12,278, then by the end of 2018, there would have been 9,304 fewer murders since January 1, 2015. So by early 2020, the total number of incremental murders of the Great Awokening is now up over 10,000.

If, say, half the incremental victims are black, then that number of extra deaths is more than all the lynchings in American history.

And of course, incremental murders have been greatest where Black Lives Matter won its greatest political triumphs, such as in Baltimore, which, although it only represents 0.2% of the country’s population, accounted for 5.0% of America’s incremental murders since 2015, the year of Baltimore’s Freddy Gray riots on April 25, through the end of 2018. From MistyBeach.com:

One complication of counting the number of murder victims is that their numbers tend to rise for a few years, as dead bodies are discovered in shallow graves and violence victims in comas die.

 
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  1. JimDandy says:

    Without a vigorous law-and-order backlash, the recent movement in big cities to decriminalize crime when it is committed by black people will inevitably make these numbers grow exponentially.

    • Agree: PaceLaw
    • Replies: @danand
    , @Svevlad
  2. Off-topic but my foreign bride informs me that Vietnamese Americans think Trump is a hero. Her source is viet language youtube vids. I asked because China or Iran and she says “everything”.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  3. It’s pretty predictable; encourage blacks to kill, and guess what?

  4. Anonymous[142] • Disclaimer says:

    And the insult to injury is that the world’s greatest negotiator Trump got NOTHING in return for this huge political giveaway.

    He rolled out the criminal justice reform giveaway in the middle of the government shutdown slash immigration mess Nov/Dec 2018. Asked for nothing in return.

    I guess it was all for Ivanka.

  5. Neil Peart, 1952-2020. rest in peace. worthy of a Steve post.

    one of the greatest drummers of all time.

  6. OT
    The Onion isn’t as good as it used to be, but it still occasianally makes a good story:

    CA McDonald’s plays bagpipes 24/7 to stop homeless from sleeping near restaurant

    [MORE]

    Residents are not lovin’ a new idea launched by a Sacramento McDonald’s to deter the homeless from sleeping near the restaurant.

    The sounds of bagpipes play 24/7 from the speakers at the fast-food restaurant.

    “It actually penetrates through the walls. We can hear it. I’m trying to watch TV or whatever, and it’s going through that,” said Arnold Phillips.

    Neighbors have taken their frustrations to a corporate level, but officials have yet to respond to their requests.

    • Replies: @Jon
  7. My understanding is that there are two reasons for the rise in the homicide rate.

    1. De-policing in cities with large black populations (post-Ferguson).
    2. Opioid epidemic driving narcotics-related slayings.

    The former has pushed up the Black homicide rate, while the latter has pushed up the White homicide rate.

    • Replies: @PaceLaw
  8. @Anonymous

    I guess it was all for Ivanka.

    Yeah, Ivanka is obsessed with the welfare of non-white people. Endless empathy. Case study in “white guilt.”

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    , @Andy Texan
  9. nebulafox says:

    Heaven forbid that the peasants not worry about crime. They might turn their attention to our white collar corruption.

  10. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @Elmer T. Jones

    Trump said, ” I aint got no quarrel with them viet cong ”

    ( Actually that was the great Muhamed Ali )

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @J.Ross
  11. Rob says:

    Still not getting why we should be concerned. Black slums have been no go areas for whites for decades. Unless this leads to home invasions or a rise in interracial murders from integrated blacks, it seems like all upside. Being tough on crime was a winner for Republicans for decades, then Bill Clinton took the issue. But the awokened Democrats will not be able to. Squishy Republicans will have trouble with law and order, leaving the issue to populists and maybe socialists.

    • Replies: @The Cruncher
  12. @Anonymous

    Trump’s biggest weakness isn’t high-mindedness, desire for respectability, or “guilt.” Trump doesn’t possess any of those traits. In particular, if you research Trump’s relationship with “the blacks,” he has always had some degree of antipathy towards them as a race.

    Trump’s biggest weakness is that he’s obsessed with celebrities (especially female celebrities who might sleep with him).

    Imagine doing criminal justice reform because of the influence of Kim Kardashian and Kanye West.

    Remember ASAP Rocky? He was the black rapper who beat up a couple Afghan migrants in Sweden. Trump tried to secure his freedom and made this into an international issue.

    Towards regular blacks on the street, Trump’s attitude is one of contempt. Toward black celebrities (and even non-black celebrities), Trump is fawning.

    I suppose it’s a good thing that there aren’t too many Mexican celebrities. If there were, maybe a Mexican version of Kim&Kanye would’ve talked Trump into giving greencards to all the border crossers.

  13. Lot says:
    @Anonymous

    It was a bad law, see Sen. Cotton’s statements on why, but its scope was pretty minor.

    I kinda like Trump offering a few random pardons championed by MAGA-curious black celebs. It actually is part of the President’s constitutional role.

  14. Whiskey says: • Website

    Trump does this stuff because Ivanka wants it. And she wants this stuff because she’s a woman. Another way to screw over beta males.

    You better believe it’s coming to the suburbs. Abolish the Police and criminalize self defense (for Whites only) is a big social movement. Like trannies three years ago.

  15. Lot says:

    Fred Reed has another “Mexicans are just like Latin Europeans, Latino crime is a white panic” column.

    Some quick facts:

    Tijuana, one single city in Mexico, had more than 2,000 murders in both 2018 and 2019.

    The entire country of Spain had 364 murders in 2012. In all of Portugal, there were 63 murders in 2016. Not cherry picking, these are the most recent years on wikipedia.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    , @donut
  16. IT

    Peart was quite the follower of Ayn Rand in the early days.Runs through out the band’s early albums.

    https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1978/1/23/to-hell-with-bob-dylan

  17. Art Deco says:

    It’s a reasonable supposition this is driven entirely by two factors:

    1. The impulse to vandalism (which I’m betting motivates Soros)

    2. Status games. Law enforcement means setting standards derived from popular culture and having deplorables impose them on Democratic Party clients. That bothers the clerisies and the clients alike.

    I’ve gotten to the age where it feels like this wheel turns round and round. The stupidities of 1970 reappear for no reason other than whatever it is that generates fashion.

    • Replies: @SFG
    , @Desiderius
  18. @Anonymous

    Trump said, ” I aint got no quarrel with them viet cong ”

    Because it wasn’t Trump’s building the great beast scaled.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  19. @Lot

    But Mexico is right by the US, bro! Or something.

  20. Is that the “uncanny valley”?

  21. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Best kong !

  22. SFG says:
    @Art Deco

    We’re seeing a lot of the men-are-bad feminism, too. Waiting for our next Reagan…

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  23. donut says:
    @Lot

    “According to Israel’s police, the number of murders is continually decreasing. In 2018, 103 people were the victims of homicide, compared with 136 people in 2017. The murder rate in 2018 was 1.14 people per 100,000 inhabitants”

    I guess it’s pretty easy to run a low murder rate when most of the murders committed by your citizens are done across the border .

  24. @Anonymous

    Trump got NOTHING in return for this huge political giveaway.

    The federal role in policing run-of-the mill street crime is pretty minimal. So minor sentencing changes to federal crimes are not a very big deal at all.

    Democrats need high black turnout to win in the Midwest. They won’t get that unless they convince Blacks that Trump is a racist monster. But he’s blunted that charge pretty effectively — it’s only hysterical white liberals that think he’s Hitler.

    In fact, most of the current Dem candidates seem pretty unexciting to blacks. So blacks may sit on their hands this time like they did with Hillary.

    I think that’s always been Trump’s objective in throwing a bone to the “black community” here or there.

    • Agree: Harry Baldwin
  25. @prime noticer

    Boomer music poasting will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.

  26. Anon[150] • Disclaimer says:

    Death rise parallels legalization of pot. Possible that some percentage of pot users have moved to the legal pot states (e.g. flood of homeless in Cali had to come from somewhere), leaving underemployed (or unemployed) pot dealers behind, who tried to compensate by muscling into the harder drug trade, thus triggering turf wars and black-on-black shooting.

    We need a data breakdown on ethnicity of who’s being killed and if the victims have a criminal past.

  27. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @SFG

    Raygun ? Russians claiming they have one now…threatening to spend like a mil on facebook ads this year too. Protip, there is no rally in beloit next week.

  28. @prime noticer

    Rush doesn’t strike me as Steve’s style – except maybe for this Police-esque ditty that wraps up Rush’s most successful album (in the US), Moving Pictures:

    • Replies: @prime noticer
  29. J.Ross says:
    @Anonymous

    Wrong tack — they probably admire him because he’s so blunt, stubborn, and results-oriented.
    Plus all the pressure he’s putting on a certain neighbor to their north must be good for the Vietnamese economy.

    • Replies: @Jimbo
  30. Impeach Roberts:

    Today he’s retweeting Benjamin Wittes.

    This is really bad.

    • Replies: @bomag
  31. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says: • Website

    The specter that haunts @ Isteve

  32. @MikeatMikedotMike

    a lot of bands were writing reggae inspired material in the late 70s and early 80s. The Police used this as a main part of their sound, even calling one of their albums Reggatta De Blanc.

    Rush was no different than dozens of other groups during that time period. there is reggae in lots of their songs from 1980 and 1981. it was almost completely gone by 1982 and totally gone by 1984 as synthesizers became the main part of their music, like lots of music in the early to mid 80s. synthesizer based New Wave music itself pretty much officially ended by 1988, although synthesizer music continued.

    Steve has already done a few posts on the Jamaica music wave of the 70s and early 80s, including ska and reggae. in some ways, an earlier version of rock bands adopting rap conventions in the 90s. my own uncle got so caught up in it that he quit his steel mill job in Pittsburgh and moved to Jamaica for 2 years in the 70s. which was a terrible idea that he pretty much tacitly admitted when he slinked back to America later and had to have his dad get the mill to give him his old job back. being a marijuana drug dealer in Jamaica wasn’t as cool as he thought it would be.

  33. danand says:
    @JimDandy

    “recent movement in big cities to decriminalize crime”

    Jim, San Francisco’s newly sworn in 3 days past District Attorney, Chesa Boudin, says his top priority is to begin the “Decarceration” of the cities inmates. With that as policy, not really obvious the need for SF to have a DA?

    • Thanks: JimDandy
    • Replies: @JimDandy
  34. @Art Deco

    2CB says it’s about nationalizing policing.

  35. Jon says:
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    A McDonalds in downtown Seattle (near Pike’s Market, but in what was a pretty bad neighborhood at the time) used to blast really old Country & Western to keep out the undesireables. Surprisingly effective.

  36. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Terminator (Gen)X knows how to handle that shit.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  37. @Hypnotoad666

    Bingo. And he’s done more than throw a bone.

  38. J.Ross says:
    @Desiderius

    This is a nice anecdote, but it’s also funny to pair with Gene Simmons’ observation that Rush were great to tour with because after a gig they just wanted to watch a documentary about Mayans and smoke a bowl.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  39. Jimbo says:
    @J.Ross

    A lot of the factories in China have relocated to Vietnam to avoid the tarriffs. Trump has created a boom in Vietnam like it has never seen.

  40. J.Ross says:
    @JohnnyWalker123

    180° turns the second a normally unspeakable appeal looks convenient, only of course to go back to unspeakability once another shiny emotional ploy becomes available.
    Are the NY Post and Daily News losing traditional readers?

  41. Eric F says:

    Rush is a super niche group with a highly selective but incredibly loyal following. They are not exactly a conservative band, but have created some anthemic conservative songs.

  42. Anonymous[173] • Disclaimer says:

    I shoved the sheriff but I got shot by the homey.

  43. Corvinus says:

    “During the rise of Black Lives Matter, the total number of murder victims in the U.S. increased 24.8% from 2014 to 2016. This is not widely known…”

    The Ferguson Effect refers to the increased scrutiny by the public, chiefly blacks, toward the tactics of law enforcement, which supposedly led police departments to withdraw from proactive policies that results in an increase in CRIMINAL activity for that particular area. Again, CRIMINAL activity. **This alleged relationship between public criticism, de-policing, and crime** was originally coined by former St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson.

    The Ferguson Effect is NOT exclusively linked to murder. Even Mr. Sailer in this blog post talks about this phenomenon being connected to crime.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/liberal-researcher-now-admits-ferguson-effect-on-murder-is-real

    The Ferguson Effect has been called into question. Is it legitimate? To what extent? Or is it simply Alt Right fodder? Perhaps there is a story to NOTICE the methodologies of these studies and delve deeper into their findings.

    “A February 2016 University of Colorado Boulder study looked at crime statistics from 81 U.S. cities and found no evidence of a Ferguson effect with respect to overall, violent, or property crime, but did identify an increase in robbery rates after the shooting of Michael Brown (while these rates had been decreasing before this shooting).”

    “A March 2016 study by Johns Hopkins University researchers Stephen L. Morgan and Joel Pally found that after Brown was shot, rates of many types of crimes in Baltimore decreased relative to what had been expected, while others (such as robbery and burglary) remained unchanged.”

    “Another 2016 study, led by Edward Maguire of Arizona State University, found no evidence of a “Ferguson effect” with regard to the number of police officers killed in the line of duty in the United States between August 2014 and March 2016.”

    “Additionally, a 2017 study led by Bradley Campbell of the University of Louisville, showed no significant increase or decrease in the number of citizens fatally shot by police after the events in Ferguson, MO in August 2014.”

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004723521730171X?via%3Dihub

    “University of Missouri-St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld, who authored several studies on the spike, has found that something akin to a “Ferguson Effect” likely did contribute to increased murder rates in a handful of cities, like Chicago and Baltimore, but that the “demoralized cops” explanation was unsupported by the data. A study he co-authored in March found “no evidence” that arrest rates had any effect on homicide rates in the cities and time period examined, a correlation one would expect to see if a dip in proactive policing was really to blame.”

    https://www.themarshallproject.org/2019/09/30/new-fbi-data-violent-crime-still-falling

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @bomag
  44. @Rob

    There are always edges between white + black areas, and the populations come in contact. Look for Colin Flaherty podcasts (eg, whitegirlbleedalot.com or else just search for his name, there are even some on YouTube) to keep you up-to-date. He’s not big on stats, I can’t claim that I’ve heard that interracial crime is climbing, but there’s certainly plenty of it going on.

  45. @J.Ross

    Gene Simmons single-handedly accounts for the late Boomer/early Xer philosemitism that baffles young groypers. Still remember being the only kid not into KISS at my 2nd grade bus stop.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
  46. @prime noticer

    Rush was no different than dozens of other groups during that time period.

    And you’ve explained why they are totally overrated.

    People listen to that shit? No wonder the West is going down the tubes.

  47. JimDandy says:
    @danand

    Whatta gloryhound. He’s obviously trying to steal Kim Foxx’s thunder.

  48. anon[362] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Corvinus has finally been Noticed by iSteve!

  49. Lawdy.

    I hate to point this out – but it sure looks like these reliably po’ folk died in the armed defense of structural negritude.

  50. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Rush’s fan base was maybe half Boomer and half first cohort GenX. And what the f**ck is poasting? It sounds like something Millennial girls binge and purge.

  51. @prime noticer

    Rush has exactly two songs with reggae rhythms, “Vital Signs” from Moving Pictures (1981) and “The Enemy Within” (1984), and another, “The Spirit of Radio” from Permanent Waves (1980), has two short breakdowns with a Reggae beat and a steel drum that last all of a few bars. Rush borrowed from the Police, their power trio competitors, not from Peter Tosh or even the Stones.

  52. @Desiderius

    Know we know what’s off about you!

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  53. @Eric Novak

    All good observations!

    Alas, Fred Thompson cannot defend himself, as he is no longer with us.

  54. @Andy Texan

    They were rushing the border fence, some of them equipped with firearms. If tear gas doesn’t stop them, and warning shots don’t stop them, there’s only one way left.

    iSteve readers: this is what y’all wish the US did on our Mexican border.

  55. @Redneck farmer

    Tip of the iceberg, farmer, tip of the iceberg.

  56. @Eric Novak

    Rush had a beat, but you couldn’t dance to it.

  57. Corvinus says:
    @Steve Sailer

    “It’s 2020”.

    I know…you’ve been peddling this nonsense for several years now. But if you seek more recent data, here it is.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-9133.12414

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-9133.12425

    Perhaps you could make an effort to offer a refutation of the studies I linked to.

    Now if only you would only be willing to discuss your caginess about Trump…

    • Replies: @bomag
  58. @Anon

    Using the FBI breakdown of victims by race, the incremental murders by ethnicity since 2013 were mostly black and hispanic victims: 5,134 victims (59%) were black and 2006 victims (23%) were identified as hispanic. My own guess is that the hispanic number is actually higher than that, because very few blacks are identified as hispanic and many of those whose ethnicity is not identified are actually hispanic. It’s clear, though, that there has been only a modest increase in the non-hispanic white murder rate.

    The total of 8,765 incremental murders in this FBI data base is slightly lower than the one Steve gives, because the information on ethnicity has not been updated to reflect the dead bodies being discovered in shallow graves and violence victims in comas dying.

    • Replies: @BostonTea
  59. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:

    Leading cause of death for non-Hispanic blacks in 2017 by age group

    https://www.cdc.gov/healthequity/lcod/men/2017/nonhispanic-black/index.htm

    The leading cause of death for black teens and men age 18 – 44 is homicide.
    The FBI crime report tells us that most murders are intra-racial, and the black men commit about 50% of murders in the US.

    What’s the greatest danger to a young black man? Not an evil white cop. No.
    The greatest danger facing a young to middle aged black man is – other black men of the same age.

    The great awokening led to more young, black men killing other young, black men.

    Do Black Lives Matter in real life? Doesn’t look that way.

  60. PaceLaw says:
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Any evidence\stats as to the opioid epidemic driving the increase in a white homicide rate? I find that fairly hard to believe.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
  61. BostonTea says:
    @Officious intermeddler

    “there has been only a modest increase in the non-hispanic white murder rate”

    You are right.

    “The upward trend in firearm mortality starting in 2014 was observed in subgroups of male, non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics and for firearm assaults. (…) In recent years, the main approach to reducing firearm violence has been the implementation of state laws to restrict gun ownership. Our results suggest increasing firearm deaths despite the implementation of these new gun laws.”

    SOURCE: Kalesan et al. “Changes in patterns of mortality rates and years of life lost due to firearms in the United States, 1999 to 2016: A joinpoint analysis.”

  62. @Hypnotoad666

    I think that’s always been Trump’s objective in throwing a bone to the “black community” here or there.

    Blacks aren’t going to remember what he did in changing sentencing guidelines. Especially (as someone pointed out) since it affects only a small percentage of police interactions, Black leaders may not see it as notable at all. You can bet in the 2020 election, nobody will give him credit for it.

    So why’d Trump do it?

    It’s because he’s obssessed with celebs (Kim, Kanye, ASAP Rocky). Trump would’ve never made any concessions to some basic street agitator or political activist, but he gets smitten whenever some celeb (especially female celeb) stops by. If Kim Kardashian hadn’t “negotiated” the crime bill, Trump would’ve never signed it.

    Trump has two major concerns in life.

    1. Figuring out how to get celebs and other famous people to hang out with him.
    2. Figure out how to get women (preferrably glamorous celeb women) to perhaps sleep with him.

    As long as you understand that, you can manipulate him in all sorts of ways.

    Trump often plays 6D chess with his genitalia.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  63. bomag says:
    @Desiderius

    Impeach Roberts

    Yeah, our supposedly conservative justices reliably disappoint.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  64. bomag says:
    @Corvinus

    …relative to what had been expected

    LOL

    Our cohort of social scientists reliably ride to the rescue of the Narrative with such studies.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  65. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @JohnnyWalker123

    I find it very unlikely Trump is, has, or has any desire to put the blocks to any Kartrashians.
    He likes them tall, shapely, and very white.

    • Replies: @Dr. Evil
  66. “that number of extra deaths is more than all the lynchings in American history.”

    Two questions from a future Freshman History Quiz:

    Q:

    1) Who is responsible for the deaths of the most black men in US history?

    2) Please explain.

    A:

    1) Obama

    2) [Insert several paragraphs of Rhea Boyd gibberish, substituting “Black” for “white”]

    • LOL: bomag
  67. bomag says:
    @Corvinus

    The two links argue against your claim. You obviously didn’t read them.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
  68. Corvinus says:
    @bomag

    “Our cohort of social scientists reliably ride to the rescue of the Narrative with such studies.”

    Shilling for your boy is not refutation of a study’s conclusions.

    “The two links argue against your claim. You obviously didn’t read them.”

    Be specific.

    • Replies: @bomag
  69. @bomag

    Doesn’t matter if they’re conservative or mugwump. Weak chiefs invite attacks, widespread corruption, and a weak and divided body politic.

    See Renaissance Italy.

  70. @bomag

    He wasn’t sent to read.

  71. Svevlad says:
    @JimDandy

    There’s a good thing in it, tho: once all the whites are gone, no more oppressors. Then the blacks have no reason to hold back, and you get traditional African justice, like being necklaced!

    I think the slight eugenic effect from the barbarity just backfiring on the criminals is the only thing that keeps Africa crawling forward. I mean that’s how ancient Europe did it, and it turned out fine

  72. Dr. Evil says:
    @Anon

    Death rise parallels legalization of pot.

    If so, then Canada is in trouble.

  73. Dr. Evil says:
    @Anonymous

    I find it very unlikely Trump is, has, or has any desire to put the blocks to any Kartrashians.
    He likes them tall, shapely, and very white.

    And much younger than himself.
    Much like Tom Cruise.

  74. bomag says:
    @Corvinus

    Shilling for your boy is not refutation of a study’s conclusions

    LOL

    And your reply does nothing for the veracity of those marginal claims.

    Be specific

    You are doing drive-by trolling; I don’t believe you are interested in any details.

    For the record, the first three unlinked quotes of yours are from a cohort of liberals that reliably downplay Black crime rates; in your quoted passages they don’t even admit to a rise in homicides following the BLM activity. Rosenfeld, of the latter links, is a lib who breaks with the mob by at least acknowledging the uptick in homicides, but joins the new chorus of not attributing it to de-policing, which his cited stats show, by running it through a mathematical model that gives him the results he wants.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  75. Corvinus says:
    @bomag

    “And your reply does nothing for the veracity of those marginal claims.”

    The claims stand on their own merit. Now, if you beg to differ, offer a refutation.

    “You are doing drive-by trolling; I don’t believe you are interested in any details.”

    I do not engage in that behavior. Rather, I offer up an alternative point of view for consideration. Considering that I provided links to several studies, it is required that I am aware of the details.

    “For the record, the first three unlinked quotes of yours are from a cohort of liberals that reliably downplay Black crime rates…”

    Disqualify, disqualify, disqualify. You simply do not like what they have to say, so rather than address with substance their data, you engage in misdirection.

    “Rosenfeld, of the latter links, is a lib who breaks with the mob by at least acknowledging the uptick in homicides, but joins the new chorus of not attributing it to de-policing, which his cited stats show, by running it through a mathematical model that gives him the results he wants.”

    Your statement requires verification. You ASSUME it to be true, and that doesn’t cut it around here. So please demonstrate what is this specific model and how it leads to “desired conclusions”. Show your work rather than shill.

    • Replies: @bomag
  76. bomag says:
    @Corvinus

    The claims stand on their own merit. Now, if you beg to differ, offer a refutation.

    We’re standing on the statistics. Your guys are the ones offering a refutation of a plain conclusion, a refutation that is clearly politically motivated.

    I offer up an alternative point of view for consideration.

    This blog is the one offering up alternative viewpoints; such as that sexual/racial/other human grouping differences are real, and that they matter. The things you champion here are what we get plenty of other places the rest of the day.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  77. Corvinus says:
    @bomag

    “such as that sexual/racial/other human grouping differences are real, and that they matter.”

    Indeed, there are certain realities with such differences, but they are not necessarily as important or matter as much as you believe.

    “We’re standing on the statistics. Your guys are the ones offering a refutation of a plain conclusion, a refutation that is clearly politically motivated.”

    Stop stalling. Please demonstrate how and why the mathematical model used by the researcher “gives him the results he wants”. Again, show your work rather than shill.

    • Replies: @bomag
  78. bomag says:
    @Corvinus

    Indeed, there are certain realities with such differences, but they are not necessarily as important or matter as much as you believe.

    Seems to be the new mantra from your side: “yes, there are differences, but they are so small that they don’t matter.” But small differences are still differences, so the truth does find a way in.

    Please demonstrate how and why the mathematical model used by the researcher “gives him the results he wants”.

    Because he admits it in the study, and is covered in the link from Neyroud.

    There is almost nothing to discuss here, except the nature of your trolling. You come on with your counter-claim by quoting un-linked passages from Morgan, Pally, Maguire, and Campbell indicating that there was’t even an increase in homicide rates corresponding with the Ferguson effect; the latest from Morgan, Pally, and Maguire admits that there was an increase in homicides in selected areas. Now the act is tightened by refuting the claim that the increase was from de-policing, covered in the linked piece by Rosenfeld, who looks at arrests per 100,000, but admits that police could have switched to arresting for other, less controversial crimes. Nothing.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  79. Corvinus says:
    @bomag

    “Seems to be the new mantra from your side: “yes, there are differences, but they are so small that they don’t matter.” But small differences are still differences, so the truth does find a way in.”

    Thanks for the strawman. Do you work for the Three Little Pigs?

    “Because he admits it in the study, and is covered in the link from Neyroud.”

    LOL, more stall tactics. But that’s what you do. You make an assertion, then run away from supporting it. Where exactly does he admit it? How is it covered? Please demonstrate how and why the mathematical model used by the researcher “gives him the results he wants”.

    “There is almost nothing to discuss here, except the nature of your trolling.”

    Citing sources and requesting evidence when someone questions the content of those sources is not trolling. I would surmise you lack the intellectual horsepower to back up your claims.

    • Replies: @bomag
  80. bomag says:
    @Corvinus

    Thanks for the strawman.

    Corvinus invoking the strawman rebuke; I’ll take the win.

    …more stall tactics

    Later comment-thread Corvinus devolves into blather. You’ve lost track of what’s being discussed.

    There was an increase in Black homicides attributed to the “Ferguson effect”. As a counterpoint, you link to researchers who first deny the increase; back away from that claim; then one researchers tries to debunk the de-policing claim, but admits he doesn’t have enough evidence to account for indexing.

    There is nothing here to refute.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  81. Corvinus says:
    @bomag

    “Corvinus invoking the strawman rebuke; I’ll take the win.”

    Pretending you are a Secret King ain’t no way to live. Your strawman remains, and you lose every time when you neglect to substantially engage in discourse.

    “There was an increase in Black homicides attributed to the “Ferguson effect”. As a counterpoint, you link to researchers who first deny the increase; back away from that claim; then one researchers tries to debunk the de-policing claim, but admits he doesn’t have enough evidence to account for indexing.”

    LOL. Tripling down, I see. You stack up assertion after assertion without even offering the requisite proof. Do you enjoy punching at waterfalls?

    • Replies: @bomag
  82. bomag says:
    @Corvinus

    …neglect to substantially engage in discourse

    Your claiming of strawman was purely to avoid. It is very much a notable topic that your side initially denies differences; then when things don’t swing your way, you admit differences and claim they don’t matter.

    You stack up assertion after assertion without even offering the requisite proof.

    The proof is in the presented statistics: the rise of homicides. That’s the proof from my side. You are trying to explain it away; first by indicating there was no increase in homicides: completely unsupported; then by suggesting there was no de-policing that might account for the increase: weak arguments are presented(*); as counter-proof, refer to sections 2.1 and 2.2 in the Rosenfeld link where the presented statistics refute his conclusion.

    (*)Rosenfeld builds a model based on arrests and charges per capita, suggesting that police activity did not decline during this period. But they did decline, according to data he cites, but he suggests that the decline was already in place and tracked with what was expected. I find that weak. He also acknowledges that police could have switched to arresting for lower level crimes (indexing), but there is not enough data to fully investigate that.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  83. Corvinus says:
    @bomag

    “Your claiming of strawman was purely to avoid.”

    I understand, given that it embarrassing for you to admit that you attributed an argument I did not make.

    “The proof is in the presented statistics: the rise of homicides. That’s the proof from my side.”

    No, the “proof” is for you to actually to address specifically the methodology and mathematical model rather than offer the same tired generalization and demonstrating thoroughly how his own own seemingly refutes his conclusions. You are merely ASSUMING these things rather than SHOWING it.

  84. bomag says:

    …you attributed an argument I did not make.

    I made a general observation about what I see from your side: a claim of convergence in outcomes for all people over time. This convergence is not occurring, so the Narrative changes. You can’t face the truth, so you dissemble with rhetorical tricks like claiming strawman.

    the “proof” is for you to actually to address specifically the methodology and mathematical model

    We’ll see how Rosenfeld’s study holds up over time, but his focus was so narrow it doesn’t matter to the larger debate. We could accept his conclusions and it changes nothing: Advocates of the Ferguson Effect do not assert that the police were indexing their disengagement from proactive enforcement to the crime rate. They argue that the police were simply making fewer arrests, as well as curtailing other enforcement activities. Okay, so the police didn’t do less, they shifted their focus.

    None of your links support your contention here. You just grabbed some headlines, thinking they supported your “no Ferguson effect” premise. Here’s Rosenfeld from the linked piece: The nationwide homicide rate increased by 11.4%, to 4.9 homicides per 100,000 population in 2015 from 4.4 in 2014 (ucr.fbi.gov). That was the largest percentage change in homicide levels in a single year since 1968 (Rosenfeld et al., 2017). During the same period, homicide rates in large cities grew by 17.2%.2 Not all big cities experienced an increase in homicide rates in 2015. In some, they were flat or fell. Others had small increases. Rosenfeld et al. (2017) found that homicide rates increased by more than 25% between 2014 and 2015 in 14 of the 46 large cities examined, and in 9 cities, the increases exceeded 50%.

    QED

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