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From a preprint that hasn’t been peer reviewed yet:

Stable population structure in Europe since the Iron Age, despite high mobility

This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review

Abstract
Ancient DNA research in the past decade has revealed that European population structure changed dramatically in the prehistoric period (14,000-3,000 years before present, YBP), reflecting the widespread introduction of Neolithic farmer and Bronze Age Steppe ancestries. However, little is known about how population structure changed in the historical period onward (3,000 YBP – present). To address this, we collected whole genomes from 204 individuals from Europe and the Mediterranean, many of which are the first historical period genomes from their region (e.g. Armenia, France). We found that most regions show remarkable inter-individual heterogeneity. Around 8% of historical individuals carry ancestry uncommon in the region where they were sampled, some indicating cross-Mediterranean contacts. Despite this high level of mobility, overall population structure across western Eurasia is relatively stable through the historical period up to the present, mirroring the geographic map. We show that, under standard population genetics models with local panmixia, the observed level of dispersal would lead to a collapse of population structure. Persistent population structure thus suggests a lower effective migration rate than indicated by the observed dispersal. We hypothesize that this phenomenon can be explained by extensive transient dispersal arising from drastically improved transportation networks and the Roman Empire’s mobilization of people for trade, labor, and military. This work highlights the utility of ancient DNA in elucidating finer scale human population dynamics in recent history.

Ancient DNA from bodies dug up in Rome showed that the capital city was highly cosmopolitan in Imperial times, but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.

 
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  1. the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died

    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.

    This is currently happening in much of the world outside Africa.

    • Replies: @Charon
    @dearieme

    You imply that the solution is for non-africans to try and out-reproduce africans. That way lies insanity.

    Matt Yglesias aside, a world with 20 or 30 billion people will most definitely not be a better world than what we have now.

    To your exact point, though: is today's world really so much better than when we had 4 or 5 billion? Are the few ways in which it *is* better contingent upon the doubling of the population?

    Replies: @dearieme, @animalogic

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @dearieme


    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.
     
    People also forget that cosmopolitan cities were breeding grounds of disease with substantially lower life expectancy than the surrounding countryside. The Romans were good with sanitation and water projects. But Rome at its height must still have been the greatest imperial petri dish of all time.

    So disease is another reason that dense urban populations might not leave as much genetic ancestry behind as you'd otherwise expect.

    Replies: @Alden, @Anon

    , @Alden
    @dearieme

    The population of Rome went from over a million to less than 50 K.

    Number one reason

    continual almost yearly invasion sackings and killings by various groups. Rome survived the Celt invasion sacking 300BC the Goths about 400 AD and the massacres and destruction by Carlos 1539 AD which was a mere kertuffle.

    After about 450 AD the invasions massacres of fighting men sacking looting taking of slaves got so bad that all over W Europe the cities just became unsafe to live in. Better a farm on the edge of a forest where people and their livestock could hide when the next bandit horde swept in.
    Rome being so big and famous was one of the biggest targets .

    So people were killed or enslaved or left town for a small farm and hunting. Meanwhile, N Italy was doing well and creating a new culture very early medieval Christianity. Protected by the Eastern Roman empire in Constantinople and Greece..

    Think of Whites fleeing cities for suburbs because of black terrorism. Baltimore Atlanta Newark Detroit Chicago Oakland 1922 and 2022. It happened very fast in America didn’t it? 1950 to 1970.

    Romans had children who were killed enslaved or died because of the after effects of the bandit tribe looting. The Romans left Rime because it was just too dangerous a place to live from about 450 to 1,000. After about 700 Muslim Arabs joined attacking Rome. Sailed up the Tiber River . The Vatican was like a downtown or civic center no wall everybody could just walk in. The wall around the Vatican was built 800 AD because Muslims occupied the rest of the city for a while slave raiding what was left of the population.

    The period 400 to about 900 saw the population of W Europe moving back to the country forests and swamps to avoid the continuing bandit invasions. The bandit tribes didn’t seem interested in conquest and establishing functional societies just looting killing and taking slaves.

    That’s why people fled the cities to the country where they could grow food hunt fish and raise animals And children who wouldn’t be killed or taken in the next slave raid.

    Reason number two
    The Justinian Plague. About 500 to 700 AD wiped out much of the population of W Europe N Africa what’s now Iraq Syria and probably the Greeks.

    It was that Justinian plague that allowed the Southern Arabs converted to Islam to conquer the Mid East N Africa Spain Portygual Sicily etc. the Justinian plague killed so many Not enough population to resist.

    No history of Europe N Africa and the Mid East can be written without including the extreme de population of the Justinian plague.

    The depopulation of England was an example. The country was Romanized and then became Christian. The papacy continued the old Roman system of provincial governors reporting to the Emperor. Now bishops and popes.

    By 600 .nothing had been heard from England for about /00 years. So the Pope sent Augustine to basically see what was left. Augustine found the survivors knew nothing of Christianity or the 400 year Roman occupation . Just one example of how devasting the Justinian Plague was.

    And how many children do you have fertility fetisher? Takes 3 you know.

    It was Gibbons Protestants masons jews and liberals who wiped all mention of the Justinian plague from the history books. As they wanted to blame the fall of great and glorious Rome and the not so dark ages on Christianity.

    Some men fetish’s about porn. Some men fetish about other people having the children they don’t have.

    , @TG
    @dearieme

    I respectfully disagree.

    There are two kinds of societies. In a first world society, people are careful not to have more children than they can REASONABLY support - however small or large that number. Essentially all prosperous societies are like this.

    In a third-world society, people have the physical maximum of children regardless of circumstance. This creates great poverty, and eventually population stabilizes because of chronic malnutrition. This has already happened in India and Pakistan, where food production per capita is at a low level of minimal subsistence and chronic malnutrition is as bad as it's ever been. This is hardly a case of people dying out for lack of breeding.

    When the rich of a first-world society import surplus population from a third world society, this drives down living standards and the first-worlders respond by limiting their fertility rate.

    It is a blame-the-victim slander to say that we have to import third world refugees because our our population refuses to breed - without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher. It just would not be high enough to create poverty and drive wages down, which is the whole point.

    Saying that first-worlders should respond to invasion by third-worlders, by also breeding to the physical maximum, so that the rich won't need to import third-worlders in order to drive labor costs down, is like saying that you should commit suicide to avoid the prospect of being murdered (apologies to Bismarck).

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Rob, @kaganovitch, @YetAnotherAnon

    , @Anonymous
    @dearieme


    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died
     
    In the spring of 544 the Eastern Roman emperor Justinian I sent his general Belisarius to Italy to counterattack, but Totila captured Rome in 546 from Belisarius and depopulated the city after a yearlong siege. When Totila left to fight the Byzantines in Lucania, south of Naples, Belisarius retook Rome and rebuilt its fortifications.
    After Belisarius retreated to Constantinople in 549, Totila recaptured Rome, going on to complete the reconquest of Italy and Sicily.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Totila
  2. Venice was founded by Roman cosmopolitan urbanites fleeing the Germanic hordes – but mostly from Aquileia – a once major Roman city with over 100,000 inhabitants that is now a small town.

    Some of the Roman upper class moved to Constantinople.

    An interesting question is how much of the Roman upper class was siphoned off by the Church?

    • Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Peter Akuleyev


    An interesting question is how much of the Roman upper class was siphoned off by the Church?
     
    My recollection is that the priesthood and promotion - hopefully to Cardinal or beyond - was a "second son" venture for aristocrats. The first son and heir secures the future, those who come after could become a "prince of the church" or military officer, etc.
    , @Alden
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Venice was not founded by Romans who traveled 300 miles North east to live in an uninhabited swamp. North was where most of the invaders came from. It was founded by a combination of the indigenous Celts whi’d lived in N East Italy for several thousand years and earlier German Gith invaders who’d settled down.

    They fled east from the invaders until they came to the sea. The invaders left the Venetian swamps alone because there was nothing there to loot.

    Replies: @Catdompanj, @Peter Akuleyev

    , @Alden
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Maybe the Roman church became so powerful was because it was run by descendants of the old Roman upper class? There’s a theory that the the whole pagan Roman clergy converted and established the official Christian Church. Like in the reformation. And why not? It’s the same job. And no nasty messy sacrificing of animals and chickens.

  3. during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived

    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    @Twinkie

    "Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement ... even the Saxon conquest of Britain."

    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.


    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon — that is, DNA segments more similar to the Germans than the Welsh. Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons. These researchers actually found DNA from Dark Age-era graves identified as Anglo-Saxon, and some of these individuals were far more like the Germans in their DNA than the modern English; they differed from earlier Iron Age samples, proving beyond a doubt that a significant number of Germans did cross the North Sea in the 6th century.

    Where does this leave us in relation to the question of whether the transformation of Dark Age Britain to early medieval England was one of genes or memes? The clear answer seems to be both. The emergence of a new style of farming, pottery and the collapse of urban Roman civilization and Christianity in eastern Britain was not simply due to the prestige and power of a small number of German warlords. Whole villages must have transplanted themselves across the North Sea, creating the nucleus of a new people, and absorbed the remaining British Celts. The lack of Celtic loanwords and the adoption of Saxon peasant culture may indicate the self-confidence of the newcomers. If St. Gildas is correct, the British elites moved to the west of the island, leaving the common people to their own devices.

    But though the southern and eastern fringe of England has a substantial Anglo-Saxon demographic imprint, that fades out as one moves to the west, including to the lands that once comprised the kingdom of Wessex. There is far less German genetic influence in Hampshire, Berkshire or Wiltshire, let alone Devon. We know from early medieval records that Celtic language speakers did exist as late as the 8th century in these domains (and much later in Devon) but by then Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language, was dominant.
     
    https://unherd.com/2020/08/who-do-the-english-think-they-are/

    Replies: @dearieme, @obwandiyag, @Prester John, @S. Anonyia, @Twinkie

    , @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie



    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).
     
    Modern Western elites tend to be cosmopolitan, but "cosmopolitan" and "elite" may not always be synonyms for ancient Rome, much less for the Dark Ages.

    The Norman keep that dominated English settlements after 1066 was typically outside of and physically above (in elevation) the population it was dominating. And of course most of these settlements were at best just agricultural trade centers, since industry had mostly disappeared with the Roman Empire.

    Even in "cosmopolitan" Rome of the Imperial Era, while the elite maintained hillcrest villas for themselves in Rome, their true home and base was usually on their rural latifundia. Mark Antony's assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum.

    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.

    Historically, the elites dominating a country usually had some kind of countryside base, be it the steppe for the Mongol Khans in China, the orchards and forests for Norman Lords in England, or the grain and olive estates for Roman Senators.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have "country houses" too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network. It is peculiar then how much more hostile than the historical elites are the modern elites to the continued existence of techno-industrial civilization...

    Replies: @LP5, @Cortes, @nebulafox, @Twinkie, @animalogic

    , @Pixo
    @Twinkie

    “ Völkerwanderung was elite replacement”

    The Germanic conquest of the Western Empire was elite blending rather than replacement. They married into the Roman landowning families rather than kill them all.

    Besides their sincere Christianity and aversion to murder, their conquest would be more secure with the consent of local Romans who were both the majority and occasionally could get a competent army together even very late in their decline.

  4. @dearieme
    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died

    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.

    This is currently happening in much of the world outside Africa.

    Replies: @Charon, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden, @TG, @Anonymous

    You imply that the solution is for non-africans to try and out-reproduce africans. That way lies insanity.

    Matt Yglesias aside, a world with 20 or 30 billion people will most definitely not be a better world than what we have now.

    To your exact point, though: is today’s world really so much better than when we had 4 or 5 billion? Are the few ways in which it *is* better contingent upon the doubling of the population?

    • Agree: jamie b.
    • Thanks: Old Prude
    • Replies: @dearieme
    @Charon

    You imply that the solution is for non-africans to try and out-reproduce africans. That way lies insanity.

    I imply nothing of the sort.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @animalogic
    @Charon

    "a world with 20 or 30 billion people will most definitely not be a better world than what we have now."
    100% correct. In fact I believe that it would be a world metaphorically on the verge of "the flood". Doubt whether there'll be a dove at the end of it either.

  5. @Twinkie

    during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).

    Replies: @Mitleser, @Almost Missouri, @Pixo

    “Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement … even the Saxon conquest of Britain.”

    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.

    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon — that is, DNA segments more similar to the Germans than the Welsh. Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons. These researchers actually found DNA from Dark Age-era graves identified as Anglo-Saxon, and some of these individuals were far more like the Germans in their DNA than the modern English; they differed from earlier Iron Age samples, proving beyond a doubt that a significant number of Germans did cross the North Sea in the 6th century.

    Where does this leave us in relation to the question of whether the transformation of Dark Age Britain to early medieval England was one of genes or memes? The clear answer seems to be both. The emergence of a new style of farming, pottery and the collapse of urban Roman civilization and Christianity in eastern Britain was not simply due to the prestige and power of a small number of German warlords. Whole villages must have transplanted themselves across the North Sea, creating the nucleus of a new people, and absorbed the remaining British Celts. The lack of Celtic loanwords and the adoption of Saxon peasant culture may indicate the self-confidence of the newcomers. If St. Gildas is correct, the British elites moved to the west of the island, leaving the common people to their own devices.

    But though the southern and eastern fringe of England has a substantial Anglo-Saxon demographic imprint, that fades out as one moves to the west, including to the lands that once comprised the kingdom of Wessex. There is far less German genetic influence in Hampshire, Berkshire or Wiltshire, let alone Devon. We know from early medieval records that Celtic language speakers did exist as late as the 8th century in these domains (and much later in Devon) but by then Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language, was dominant.

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/who-do-the-english-think-they-are/

    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon, TWS
    • Replies: @dearieme
    @Mitleser

    Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language

    Yes, we should really call it something like "Insular West Germanic".

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Reg Cæsar

    , @obwandiyag
    @Mitleser

    Most everyone overlooks plague. There was a great Celtic die-off from disease that facilitated their replacement.

    Moreover, there were significantly large contingents of Germanics living in England even in Roman times.

    , @Prester John
    @Mitleser

    "Wessex" translates roughly to "West Saxon", yet the article suggests that Saxon influence had "faded".
    Does that mean that they were a previously dominant minority who were eventually displaced by Celtic-speakers Welsh? If so, roughly when. It would be interesting to know the chronology here.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    , @S. Anonyia
    @Mitleser

    Some recent theories suggests Germanic tribes like the Belgae had already established themselves in Eastern England as contemporaries of the Celts, long before the Anglo-Saxon invasions around 500 A.D.

    , @Twinkie
    @Mitleser


    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.
     
    It's not "partially true." It's actually true. Of course, there was some colonization activity on the eastern and southern coastal areas by Angles, Saxons, and Jutes, but consider the following you posted (which I read already in the past):

    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon
     
    This means that, even in the areas of the greatest Anglo-Saxon (and Jutish) predations and colonization, the local substrate ancestry survived and comprise 60-90% of the current "English" population.

    Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons.
     
    In other words, even in the very center of what was once the Saxon Shore, 62% of the "English" is Brythonic/pre-Anglo-Saxon in ancestry.

    Now, when you consider that the Anglo-Saxon elites likely out-produced heirs than the substrate population (though perhaps later out-produced still by the Normans), that means that the fraction of the Anglo-Saxons among the Brythonic population at the time of the arrival of the former was likely smaller still.

    This is quite consistent with my contention (and that of more modern historians) that, indeed, the traditional historiography of the Anglo-Saxons killing, replacing, and displacing the Brythonic peoples (except in Wales, Cornwall, and Scotland) is, in fact, incorrect and that the substrate population largely survived intact while the elites were replaced.

  6. Populusque, Senatus: Rot more!
    Ye Vestals: Leave hearths to go whore!
    Legions fail, roads decay!
    Then Republicans may
    Cincinnati become, as of yore.

  7. OT — planned collapse — Who would’ve done business in China if the Chinese just stole the last brick and bolt from every foreign investment? Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.

    • Thanks: JimDandy
    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @J.Ross


    Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.
     
    Agreed. Apparently the Fed was aghast at the precedent of stealing Russia's foreign reserves. And "Sanctions" now seems to include literal piracy as they grab yachts from Russian citizens. So much for the "rules based world order."

    You'll never hear about it in our corrupt press but all this has left a very unfavorable impression in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @epebble, @Catdompanj, @Peter Akuleyev

    , @nebulafox
    @J.Ross

    Only two groups of people can possibly by shocked by this: politicians and journalists.

  8. @Charon
    @dearieme

    You imply that the solution is for non-africans to try and out-reproduce africans. That way lies insanity.

    Matt Yglesias aside, a world with 20 or 30 billion people will most definitely not be a better world than what we have now.

    To your exact point, though: is today's world really so much better than when we had 4 or 5 billion? Are the few ways in which it *is* better contingent upon the doubling of the population?

    Replies: @dearieme, @animalogic

    You imply that the solution is for non-africans to try and out-reproduce africans. That way lies insanity.

    I imply nothing of the sort.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @dearieme

    Charon is just sore that you demoted his big brother to a dwarf.



    https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/system/resources/detail_files/697_nh-pluto-charon-v2-10-1-15_1600.jpg

    Replies: @Stan Adams

  9. @Mitleser
    @Twinkie

    "Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement ... even the Saxon conquest of Britain."

    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.


    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon — that is, DNA segments more similar to the Germans than the Welsh. Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons. These researchers actually found DNA from Dark Age-era graves identified as Anglo-Saxon, and some of these individuals were far more like the Germans in their DNA than the modern English; they differed from earlier Iron Age samples, proving beyond a doubt that a significant number of Germans did cross the North Sea in the 6th century.

    Where does this leave us in relation to the question of whether the transformation of Dark Age Britain to early medieval England was one of genes or memes? The clear answer seems to be both. The emergence of a new style of farming, pottery and the collapse of urban Roman civilization and Christianity in eastern Britain was not simply due to the prestige and power of a small number of German warlords. Whole villages must have transplanted themselves across the North Sea, creating the nucleus of a new people, and absorbed the remaining British Celts. The lack of Celtic loanwords and the adoption of Saxon peasant culture may indicate the self-confidence of the newcomers. If St. Gildas is correct, the British elites moved to the west of the island, leaving the common people to their own devices.

    But though the southern and eastern fringe of England has a substantial Anglo-Saxon demographic imprint, that fades out as one moves to the west, including to the lands that once comprised the kingdom of Wessex. There is far less German genetic influence in Hampshire, Berkshire or Wiltshire, let alone Devon. We know from early medieval records that Celtic language speakers did exist as late as the 8th century in these domains (and much later in Devon) but by then Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language, was dominant.
     
    https://unherd.com/2020/08/who-do-the-english-think-they-are/

    Replies: @dearieme, @obwandiyag, @Prester John, @S. Anonyia, @Twinkie

    Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language

    Yes, we should really call it something like “Insular West Germanic”.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @dearieme


    Yes, we should really call it something like “Insular West Germanic”
     
    Not really necessary, considering that Old English is also known as Anglo-Saxon, which is snappier.

    Replies: @dearieme

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @dearieme


    Yes, we should really call it something like “Insular West Germanic”.
     
    That term would also fit Faroese, Icelandic, Brooklynese, and, when you think about it, "da kine" and PNG Pigeon.
  10. The Grand Strategy of the Anglo-American Empire:
    Spread democracy and gay sex, invite the World.

    • LOL: Mike Tre
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Indifferent Contrarian

    Agree, but you have to define "democracy" as "child trannies and oligarch minoritarianism".

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Indifferent Contrarian


    The Grand Strategy of the Anglo-American Empire:
    Spread democracy and gay sex...
     
    As Mencken said of one and might have of the other, they know what they want and deserve to get it... good and hard.


    https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210808132241-rs-e-block-2-sullivan.jpg


    Gaetan Dugas is the new Woodrow Wilson!


    https://www.hivplusmag.com/sites/default/files/styles/amp_metadata_content_image_min_696px_wide/public/2018/05/14/patient_zero-gaetan-dugasx750.jpg?itok=zV2eEKwF

  11. Tucker Carlson last night:”‘I am not about Race…White Americans should be about being hyper-individualistic believers in free-markets…..White Americans should not be about race….that’s insane!!!”

    Tucker the Cucker…

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @Muggles
    @War for Blair Mountain

    I watched last night and I don't think he said what you claim.

    By all means, attack the only person on televised news who isn't a Woke puppet or Narrative Bringer.

    He has the highest ratings of any cable new program on any network. To most, that is good news.

    You on the other hand want to disparage anyone who doesn't parrot whatever your beliefs are.

    I'm sure your long suffering cat doesn't give a shit either...

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Alden

    , @TWS
    @War for Blair Mountain

    If he said anything else he would be off the air before the end of his segment. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Holger Danske is not going to wake up and tear his beard from the table. Not now maybe not ever, until that collective moment comes you work with what you have.

  12. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, …

    You say this as if it was a bad thing.

    … while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.

    So, the good news is that if we wait a millenium or so, our modern problems will have worked themselves out? Good news, I guess, for Flyover Country.

  13. What is the open and deliberate intent of the Democratic Party’s post-1965 non-white LEGAL Immigration Policy…?

    • Replies: @epebble
    @War for Blair Mountain

    It is Bipartisan. You should read about Reagan's amnesty and G.H.W. Bush's 1990 Immigration expansion and G.W. Bush's love for Mexicans. He even has a sister-in-law.

    , @TG
    @War for Blair Mountain

    Cheap labor.

    Replies: @Oswald Spengler, @Reg Cæsar

  14. @Twinkie

    during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).

    Replies: @Mitleser, @Almost Missouri, @Pixo

    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived

    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).

    Modern Western elites tend to be cosmopolitan, but “cosmopolitan” and “elite” may not always be synonyms for ancient Rome, much less for the Dark Ages.

    The Norman keep that dominated English settlements after 1066 was typically outside of and physically above (in elevation) the population it was dominating. And of course most of these settlements were at best just agricultural trade centers, since industry had mostly disappeared with the Roman Empire.

    Even in “cosmopolitan” Rome of the Imperial Era, while the elite maintained hillcrest villas for themselves in Rome, their true home and base was usually on their rural latifundia. Mark Antony’s assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum.

    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.

    Historically, the elites dominating a country usually had some kind of countryside base, be it the steppe for the Mongol Khans in China, the orchards and forests for Norman Lords in England, or the grain and olive estates for Roman Senators.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have “country houses” too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network. It is peculiar then how much more hostile than the historical elites are the modern elites to the continued existence of techno-industrial civilization…

    • Replies: @LP5
    @Almost Missouri

    Almost Missouri writes:


    they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network.
     
    That logistic network supporting all those country and other houses relies increasingly on invited people. Many are Hispanic, some Slavic, still others from points beyond, and many of dubious documentation.

    Do many invitees rock the cradle?
    , @Cortes
    @Almost Missouri

    The historical elites have had plenty of time to develop their networks of dependable vassals around their country seats. Not to mention long-standing family ties with other notables able in turn to count on reliable dependants. And time also to polish the interpersonal skills required to maintain their networks in good shape even during rocky moments. Whether the new elites are able to rely on their own support services in testing circumstances will be interesting.

    , @nebulafox
    @Almost Missouri

    One of the major differences between the pre-modern world and today is how urbanized the latter is compared to the former. With the level of technology the classical world had, feeding half a million people in an urban center, let alone a million, was a non-trivial logistical achievement, and it showed. Until London's industrial boom in the 18th Century, Europe would not see another city with over a million people after Rome fell. There were others outside of Europe at various points in history who had a million people, but they were few and far between: Baghdad before the Mongol sack, Tokyo by the 18th Century, the various Chinese capitals during high dynasty phases, that kind of thing.

    The point being: until the last century or two (and it should be said: for much of the world, until much more recently than that) the vast majority of the populace was rural and agrarian. It's one more example of how we really are an outlier treading unprecedented waters with unprecedented levels of technology.

    , @Twinkie
    @Almost Missouri


    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.
     
    A very good point.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have “country houses” too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network.
     
    Also a very good point. But a point of contention here would be the definition of "elites." You might be surprised that actual elites (not just the upper middle class or lower upper class aspirants) actually own a lot of land, farmland in particular. Bill Gates, for example, is now reputedly the largest private farmland owner (something like 242,000 acres) in the United States.

    Replies: @Unladen Swallow, @Almost Missouri

    , @animalogic
    @Almost Missouri

    "Mark Antony’s assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum."
    Cicero was a compulsive collector of mansions/property.
    Whatever agricultural interests he had would have been handled by bailiffs (not sure if that's the correct title for such managers)

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  15. So essentially European peoples, who built European nations and culture, have been the Europeans–the natives–for 4000+ years. And people who deny and squelch and piss on that are genocidal, maniacal liars … who should be beaten in the streets and strung up from lampposts.

    But then we knew all that already.

    • Agree: Pop Warner
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @AnotherDad

    I like this idea better than your bunberry of secession.

  16. the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died

    Malaria killed off most Mediterranean coastal populations including Rome, Athens, and Caesaria.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @J

    Yes malaria arrived from Africa via Egypt during the late empire and caused great loss of life, like new diseases usually do.

  17. On topic: Bai Den sends American soldiers back into Somalia, because, because, uh, fool me once, uh, uh, Corn Pop was a bad dude.

    • Thanks: Coemgen
  18. @AnotherDad
    So essentially European peoples, who built European nations and culture, have been the Europeans--the natives--for 4000+ years. And people who deny and squelch and piss on that are genocidal, maniacal liars ... who should be beaten in the streets and strung up from lampposts.

    But then we knew all that already.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    I like this idea better than your bunberry of secession.

  19. The maps of North Africa and South Eastern Europe may show patterns caused by slave trading ?

    Would be interesting to see how patterns in Europe compare to those of India, the middle east and China. Perhaps once you have fairly high populations the population make up stays relatively stable. Difficult to kill or displace most people.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @AKAHorace

    "Difficult to kill or displace most people."

    Not so 4,000 years ago, when the R1b guys rode into Europe.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/is-distinctive-dna-marker-proof-of-ancient-genocide-1.1426197

    Replies: @anon, @Anon, @Coemgen

  20. LP5 says:
    @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie



    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).
     
    Modern Western elites tend to be cosmopolitan, but "cosmopolitan" and "elite" may not always be synonyms for ancient Rome, much less for the Dark Ages.

    The Norman keep that dominated English settlements after 1066 was typically outside of and physically above (in elevation) the population it was dominating. And of course most of these settlements were at best just agricultural trade centers, since industry had mostly disappeared with the Roman Empire.

    Even in "cosmopolitan" Rome of the Imperial Era, while the elite maintained hillcrest villas for themselves in Rome, their true home and base was usually on their rural latifundia. Mark Antony's assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum.

    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.

    Historically, the elites dominating a country usually had some kind of countryside base, be it the steppe for the Mongol Khans in China, the orchards and forests for Norman Lords in England, or the grain and olive estates for Roman Senators.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have "country houses" too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network. It is peculiar then how much more hostile than the historical elites are the modern elites to the continued existence of techno-industrial civilization...

    Replies: @LP5, @Cortes, @nebulafox, @Twinkie, @animalogic

    Almost Missouri writes:

    they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network.

    That logistic network supporting all those country and other houses relies increasingly on invited people. Many are Hispanic, some Slavic, still others from points beyond, and many of dubious documentation.

    Do many invitees rock the cradle?

  21. OT, but yesterday this 747, N740CK, flew from Dover Air Force Base in the US to Rzeszow in Poland, which seems to be the main delivery airport for weapons to Ukraine. It’s heading back to the States now.

    https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/10570450

    Just another load of hand-held missiles, I thought.

    But I think it’s operated by this company.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalitta_Charters

    Kalitta Charters is now the sole company that has a contract with the US government to fly the remains of service members to their final resting places.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Probably was bringing weapons. Having the exclusive contract to transport military remains doesn't rule out military freight as well.

    While there do seem to be American and other NATO troops in Ukraine under cover of private military contractors, I'm only aware of one dying so far. There may well be others, but if there were enough to require a 747, I expect we would have heard more about it.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

  22. Inviting the world became a lot easier in the 1960’s, when transcontinental jet travel arrived.

    How bad do things have to get to make an Indian emigrate back to Punjab? Most have one foot still there in the form of family ties, frequently renewed in weddings and vacations.

    Unscrambling the multicultural omelet will need civilizational collapse on the scale of ‘the Famine Winter of 1946’, if not the Fall of the Roman Empire.

    Bring it. I’d like to see indigenous Whites take back their urban spaces.

  23. @Peter Akuleyev
    Venice was founded by Roman cosmopolitan urbanites fleeing the Germanic hordes - but mostly from Aquileia - a once major Roman city with over 100,000 inhabitants that is now a small town.

    Some of the Roman upper class moved to Constantinople.

    An interesting question is how much of the Roman upper class was siphoned off by the Church?

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @Alden, @Alden

    An interesting question is how much of the Roman upper class was siphoned off by the Church?

    My recollection is that the priesthood and promotion – hopefully to Cardinal or beyond – was a “second son” venture for aristocrats. The first son and heir secures the future, those who come after could become a “prince of the church” or military officer, etc.

  24. At the end of our civilization, New York will be repopulated by people from Upstate NY and New Jersey, Chicago by people from Downstate Illinois and Indiana, and LA by people from the rest of the Southwest.

  25. @War for Blair Mountain
    What is the open and deliberate intent of the Democratic Party’s post-1965 non-white LEGAL Immigration Policy…?

    Replies: @epebble, @TG

    It is Bipartisan. You should read about Reagan’s amnesty and G.H.W. Bush’s 1990 Immigration expansion and G.W. Bush’s love for Mexicans. He even has a sister-in-law.

  26. OT how to post webms on unz?
    Just saw the perfect webm illustrating The West (or what the Saker calls “Zone A”):
    In the corner of the room is a baby crib. In the center of the room is a stripper pole. Mom is twirling down and around the stripper pole with one arm out. The orderly lines of the crib bars are eclipsed by an infant girl, probably before the stage of speech, riding a toy truck. The truck makes its way across the bars of the crib as Mom continues twirling. The truck passes the pole. It gets a foot and a half past. Mom’s extended arm is led by the twirl to whack the girl in the head. The girl falls off her truck and begins bawling. Mom continues twirling. Mom is white by the way.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @J.Ross

    You have to upload it to a video hosting site like YouTube, Rumble, Odysee, BitChute, then post the link.

    But I've seen that one.

    , @Prester John
    @J.Ross

    Spengler may still turn out to have been correct.

  27. In 1947, Britain had around fifteen thousand Indians.

  28. @AKAHorace
    The maps of North Africa and South Eastern Europe may show patterns caused by slave trading ?

    Would be interesting to see how patterns in Europe compare to those of India, the middle east and China. Perhaps once you have fairly high populations the population make up stays relatively stable. Difficult to kill or displace most people.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    “Difficult to kill or displace most people.”

    Not so 4,000 years ago, when the R1b guys rode into Europe.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/is-distinctive-dna-marker-proof-of-ancient-genocide-1.1426197

    • Replies: @anon
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Is there any consensus on how the Old European portion of the NW European genome climbed back to 50%? It seems likely to have started no earlier than the late Corded Ware culture of the invaders c2500 BC and been roughly complete by the earliest Celtic and Germanic cultural differentiation c500 BC. Admittedly, that's a 2000 year window, but the whole period seems usually pictured as one long series of within-group R1b cattle raids. Hard to believe Mediterranean mercantilism alone could do the job, so did the Indo-Europeans develop a big class of Old European thralls?

    , @Anon
    @YetAnotherAnon

    They were already in Europe. They merely rode in to Western Europe. Western Russia and Ukraine, where the "Steppe" guys ventured out from in the first major migrations, is in Eastern Europe, after all.

    , @Coemgen
    @YetAnotherAnon


    Not so 4,000 years ago, when the R1b guys rode into Europe.
     
    The current science, based on DNA samples from Bronze Age Britons, is that the R1b (Indo-European) male haplogroup nearly replaced all of the male haplogroups in Britain within a period of about 300 years.

    That's some serious demographic replacement.
  29. @dearieme
    @Mitleser

    Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language

    Yes, we should really call it something like "Insular West Germanic".

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Reg Cæsar

    Yes, we should really call it something like “Insular West Germanic”

    Not really necessary, considering that Old English is also known as Anglo-Saxon, which is snappier.

    • Replies: @dearieme
    @Jonathan Mason

    Snappier, but it implies that Bede was right in thinking there were quite distinct tribes called the Angles and the Saxons who crossed the North Sea in one-tribe vessels and settled different parts of the country separately. That's almost certainly untrue. His error is forgivable - poor old Bede had no records to work with so he probably simply made some guesses. That's why we call the period The Dark Ages after all.

  30. @J.Ross
    OT -- planned collapse -- Who would've done business in China if the Chinese just stole the last brick and bolt from every foreign investment? Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.
    https://i.postimg.cc/NG1vF8g5/1652778025592.png

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666, @nebulafox

    Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.

    Agreed. Apparently the Fed was aghast at the precedent of stealing Russia’s foreign reserves. And “Sanctions” now seems to include literal piracy as they grab yachts from Russian citizens. So much for the “rules based world order.”

    You’ll never hear about it in our corrupt press but all this has left a very unfavorable impression in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.

    • Agree: animalogic
    • Thanks: Alden
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Hypnotoad666

    When Brazil was doing the world cup (Olympics? Whatever. The year of the greatest happening to happen on /k/, the Assault On German Hill), Brazilian policemen made photo ops telling foreigners not to come to Brazil because of what we would call Soros prosecutors and their long term effects. So now the responsible among us get to warn the rest of the world, don't invest in or trust America, the Democrats will just take your stuff.

    , @epebble
    @Hypnotoad666

    It is war by other means. Most people would any day prefer economic warfare over shooting wars. At least there are no dead bodies and smoking ruins. If U.S. can destroy Russia without killing any Russians, one would call it genius.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @Marquis

    , @Catdompanj
    @Hypnotoad666

    Yet the American media went apoplectic over tariffs on China.

    , @Peter Akuleyev
    @Hypnotoad666


    left a very unfavorable impression in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.
     
    Yes, all countries famous for their lack of corruption and scrupulous attention to rule of law. If anything American willingness to play bully may actually help our business leaders negotiate better deals in those countries.
  31. Steve and readers,
    A recent review by VDH about The Satyricon by Petronius provides much of interest about the current topic.

    https://newcriterion.com/issues/2022/5/living-the-satyricon

  32. @dearieme
    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died

    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.

    This is currently happening in much of the world outside Africa.

    Replies: @Charon, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden, @TG, @Anonymous

    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.

    People also forget that cosmopolitan cities were breeding grounds of disease with substantially lower life expectancy than the surrounding countryside. The Romans were good with sanitation and water projects. But Rome at its height must still have been the greatest imperial petri dish of all time.

    So disease is another reason that dense urban populations might not leave as much genetic ancestry behind as you’d otherwise expect.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Hypnotoad666

    For most of human history the average family was 8 or 9 pregnancies some miscarriages, some still births , some babies died in the first couple years and net teens per family 2 or 3 lived to adulthood. Women died in childbirth men of warfare and industrial agricultural accidents and everybody died of diseases and malnutrition

    , @Anon
    @Hypnotoad666

    That's very much true. I have compared my father's city-dwelling ancestors versus my mother's country-dwelling ancestors in the course of doing genealogy, and I have a boatload of city ancestors and collateral relatives who have died of tuberculosis. Reading death certificates is very enlightening about how healthy city life actually is.

    I've been able to trace tuberculosis all the way through the entire 19th century on my Dad's side of the family, and a suspiciously large amount of his relatives died in early adulthood in the 18th century, so tuberculosis probably goes back much further than that.

    My country ancestors, by contrast, are as healthy as horses. I've also backed this up with DNA testing. My mother has at least 15 times or more the number of relatives than my father does just among those have had their DNA tested. She has so many they could populate a city. This is despite the fact that I come from old American families on both sides with lot of founders from the 1600s. Though having the same starting point, my mother's country relatives are winning the Darwinian war, and my father's city relatives are losing. My father's side of the family was/is more educated and wealthier then my mother's, yet none of that has helped them one whit. Immune system is everything.

    Another important point is that the demographic shift towards smaller families occurred in cities earlier than in the country. Children in the country can help you farm, but in the city, they're just a burden that brings in no cash. My father's side of the family was limiting their family size in the 1800s while my mother's was still having 10 kids per family, and in just a few generations, that really adds up.

  33. @Hypnotoad666
    @J.Ross


    Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.
     
    Agreed. Apparently the Fed was aghast at the precedent of stealing Russia's foreign reserves. And "Sanctions" now seems to include literal piracy as they grab yachts from Russian citizens. So much for the "rules based world order."

    You'll never hear about it in our corrupt press but all this has left a very unfavorable impression in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @epebble, @Catdompanj, @Peter Akuleyev

    When Brazil was doing the world cup (Olympics? Whatever. The year of the greatest happening to happen on /k/, the Assault On German Hill), Brazilian policemen made photo ops telling foreigners not to come to Brazil because of what we would call Soros prosecutors and their long term effects. So now the responsible among us get to warn the rest of the world, don’t invest in or trust America, the Democrats will just take your stuff.

  34. @Hypnotoad666
    @J.Ross


    Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.
     
    Agreed. Apparently the Fed was aghast at the precedent of stealing Russia's foreign reserves. And "Sanctions" now seems to include literal piracy as they grab yachts from Russian citizens. So much for the "rules based world order."

    You'll never hear about it in our corrupt press but all this has left a very unfavorable impression in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @epebble, @Catdompanj, @Peter Akuleyev

    It is war by other means. Most people would any day prefer economic warfare over shooting wars. At least there are no dead bodies and smoking ruins. If U.S. can destroy Russia without killing any Russians, one would call it genius.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @epebble

    You miss the point. Who's going to want to store their cash where it can be stolen? Where are, say, India going to want to keep their reserves?

    “in New Delhi, recently.. a conversation that took place at the highest levels of India’s government. The topic: how to make sure that the United States could never do to India what it has just done to Russia.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Gokul_Sahni/status/1526051224130269185

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    , @Marquis
    @epebble

    “If.”

    There’s the possibility we destroy our economy, and thus ourselves, in the process.

    Replies: @epebble

  35. @Indifferent Contrarian
    The Grand Strategy of the Anglo-American Empire:
    Spread democracy and gay sex, invite the World.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Reg Cæsar

    Agree, but you have to define “democracy” as “child trannies and oligarch minoritarianism”.

    • Agree: AndrewR
  36. anon[216] • Disclaimer says:
    @YetAnotherAnon
    @AKAHorace

    "Difficult to kill or displace most people."

    Not so 4,000 years ago, when the R1b guys rode into Europe.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/is-distinctive-dna-marker-proof-of-ancient-genocide-1.1426197

    Replies: @anon, @Anon, @Coemgen

    Is there any consensus on how the Old European portion of the NW European genome climbed back to 50%? It seems likely to have started no earlier than the late Corded Ware culture of the invaders c2500 BC and been roughly complete by the earliest Celtic and Germanic cultural differentiation c500 BC. Admittedly, that’s a 2000 year window, but the whole period seems usually pictured as one long series of within-group R1b cattle raids. Hard to believe Mediterranean mercantilism alone could do the job, so did the Indo-Europeans develop a big class of Old European thralls?

  37. @J.Ross
    OT how to post webms on unz?
    Just saw the perfect webm illustrating The West (or what the Saker calls "Zone A"):
    In the corner of the room is a baby crib. In the center of the room is a stripper pole. Mom is twirling down and around the stripper pole with one arm out. The orderly lines of the crib bars are eclipsed by an infant girl, probably before the stage of speech, riding a toy truck. The truck makes its way across the bars of the crib as Mom continues twirling. The truck passes the pole. It gets a foot and a half past. Mom's extended arm is led by the twirl to whack the girl in the head. The girl falls off her truck and begins bawling. Mom continues twirling. Mom is white by the way.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Prester John

    You have to upload it to a video hosting site like YouTube, Rumble, Odysee, BitChute, then post the link.

    But I’ve seen that one.

  38. The Great Romeplacement?

  39. @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie



    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).
     
    Modern Western elites tend to be cosmopolitan, but "cosmopolitan" and "elite" may not always be synonyms for ancient Rome, much less for the Dark Ages.

    The Norman keep that dominated English settlements after 1066 was typically outside of and physically above (in elevation) the population it was dominating. And of course most of these settlements were at best just agricultural trade centers, since industry had mostly disappeared with the Roman Empire.

    Even in "cosmopolitan" Rome of the Imperial Era, while the elite maintained hillcrest villas for themselves in Rome, their true home and base was usually on their rural latifundia. Mark Antony's assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum.

    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.

    Historically, the elites dominating a country usually had some kind of countryside base, be it the steppe for the Mongol Khans in China, the orchards and forests for Norman Lords in England, or the grain and olive estates for Roman Senators.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have "country houses" too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network. It is peculiar then how much more hostile than the historical elites are the modern elites to the continued existence of techno-industrial civilization...

    Replies: @LP5, @Cortes, @nebulafox, @Twinkie, @animalogic

    The historical elites have had plenty of time to develop their networks of dependable vassals around their country seats. Not to mention long-standing family ties with other notables able in turn to count on reliable dependants. And time also to polish the interpersonal skills required to maintain their networks in good shape even during rocky moments. Whether the new elites are able to rely on their own support services in testing circumstances will be interesting.

  40. @YetAnotherAnon
    OT, but yesterday this 747, N740CK, flew from Dover Air Force Base in the US to Rzeszow in Poland, which seems to be the main delivery airport for weapons to Ukraine. It's heading back to the States now.

    https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/10570450

    Just another load of hand-held missiles, I thought.

    But I think it's operated by this company.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalitta_Charters


    Kalitta Charters is now the sole company that has a contract with the US government to fly the remains of service members to their final resting places.
     

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Probably was bringing weapons. Having the exclusive contract to transport military remains doesn’t rule out military freight as well.

    While there do seem to be American and other NATO troops in Ukraine under cover of private military contractors, I’m only aware of one dying so far. There may well be others, but if there were enough to require a 747, I expect we would have heard more about it.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @Almost Missouri

    I wasn't suggesting a planeload. But AFAIK it was that plane's first trip to Poland. I'm sure it was carrying arms - Dover is the main freight centre for US forces.

    I keep hearing about Russian air superiority, but I presume the stuff landing at Rzeszow is getting in OK, surprised its not been interdicted. Only two single track lines into Ukraine from there AFAIK.

    Maybe the very first loads were top notch AA defences.

  41. @Almost Missouri
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Probably was bringing weapons. Having the exclusive contract to transport military remains doesn't rule out military freight as well.

    While there do seem to be American and other NATO troops in Ukraine under cover of private military contractors, I'm only aware of one dying so far. There may well be others, but if there were enough to require a 747, I expect we would have heard more about it.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    I wasn’t suggesting a planeload. But AFAIK it was that plane’s first trip to Poland. I’m sure it was carrying arms – Dover is the main freight centre for US forces.

    I keep hearing about Russian air superiority, but I presume the stuff landing at Rzeszow is getting in OK, surprised its not been interdicted. Only two single track lines into Ukraine from there AFAIK.

    Maybe the very first loads were top notch AA defences.

  42. @epebble
    @Hypnotoad666

    It is war by other means. Most people would any day prefer economic warfare over shooting wars. At least there are no dead bodies and smoking ruins. If U.S. can destroy Russia without killing any Russians, one would call it genius.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @Marquis

    You miss the point. Who’s going to want to store their cash where it can be stolen? Where are, say, India going to want to keep their reserves?

    “in New Delhi, recently.. a conversation that took place at the highest levels of India’s government. The topic: how to make sure that the United States could never do to India what it has just done to Russia.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Gokul_Sahni/status/1526051224130269185

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @YetAnotherAnon

    WaPo:


    "the unprecedented nature of these measures is producing concerns around the world that the United States has “weaponized” its financial power and could lead, over time, to the decline of the dollar’s dominance, which is what gives America its financial superpowers in the first place.

    I’ve been hearing about this firsthand from three sources I trust. The first, in New Delhi, recently told me about a conversation that took place at the highest levels of India’s government. The topic: how to make sure that the United States could never do to India what it has just done to Russia. The second, from Brussels, where staff at the European Commission has been tasked — even while working with Washington on the sanctions — with finding ways to reduce the role of the dollar in its energy imports. The third, an Asian observer of China, speculated that the overly severe lockdowns in Shanghai — which involved the rationing of food and basic supplies — might be part of an effort by Beijing to experiment with a scenario in which it faced economic sanctions from Washington (perhaps after an invasion of Taiwan).

    A debate is raging around the world about whether the dollar’s total dominance of the international financial system is waning. "
     

    Replies: @epebble

  43. but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.

    From Google:

    When did Rome’s population decline?
    Perhaps the best-known example of long-term urban decline is the “fall” of Rome, which took place between the second and sixth centuries AD. During this period, the city of Rome experienced a decline of population from around a million persons to about 30,000.

    In Mark Twain’s Innocents Abroad, written from observations circa 1865-67 he describes Rome as a small city, poor and dirty. Known for it’s priestly ruling class (who seemed the only well fed citizens) and its many prostitutes. This was prior to the unification of Italy.

    So yes, in such a drastic population decline the many outsiders who had lived in Rome had long died off and/or their descendants had moved on to greener pastures.

    Barbarian invasions, plagues, city state wars which left Rome as a minor political player, and even in the latter centuries of the western Roman Empire, the seat of “imperial” Rome had shifted elsewhere, to wherever the latest Emperor lived or fought from.

    Aside from being the seat of the Catholic Church (for most of the post Empire period) Rome was a backwater.

    Jerusalem also visited by Twain on that trip comes in for an even worse depiction. By then a remote outpost of the Muslim Ottoman Empire. Until the full effects of the Industrial Revolution were reflected in local economies, ancient cities dwindled in importance other than those well suited to international trade and seafaring/river borne trade.

    Aside from pilgrimage sites, no one travels to poor cities to live. Even then pilgrims don’t often linger.

    • Replies: @dearieme
    @Muggles

    being the seat of the Catholic Church

    Perhaps you mean that Rome was the seat of the Roman Catholic Church. But that wasn't a separate entity, was it, until the Pope flounced out from the other Patriarchs in 1054?

    , @Pixo
    @Muggles

    “ Jerusalem also visited by Twain on that trip comes in for an even worse depiction. By then a remote outpost of the Muslim Ottoman Empire.”

    As the early Zionists put it, it was a land without people for a people without a land.

  44. @War for Blair Mountain
    Tucker Carlson last night:”‘I am not about Race…White Americans should be about being hyper-individualistic believers in free-markets…..White Americans should not be about race….that’s insane!!!”

    Tucker the Cucker…

    Replies: @Muggles, @TWS

    I watched last night and I don’t think he said what you claim.

    By all means, attack the only person on televised news who isn’t a Woke puppet or Narrative Bringer.

    He has the highest ratings of any cable new program on any network. To most, that is good news.

    You on the other hand want to disparage anyone who doesn’t parrot whatever your beliefs are.

    I’m sure your long suffering cat doesn’t give a shit either…

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Muggles

    Tucker has come very close to explicitly saying that the immigration invasion has been done to replace the White Middle Class. He may not have put those words together in a string, but he's said as much As you wrote, he's got most viewers of any news program, so he can't be quite as straight up as Steve Sailer. He would be cancelled. He has slowly ramped up toward the truth though.

    , @Alden
    @Muggles

    I don’t even have TV and cable, just the internet and every streaming service. There’s a big difference between being a pro White advocate and conservatism.

    Conservatism has absolutely and totally failed White for the last 70 years. School desegregation and even worse bussing, black on White crime that drove us out of the cities, affirmative action, unlimited non White immigration, the endless preaching of hatred against Whites in the great and powerful foundations Tides, Woods, Ford*that should be banned, academia even kindergarten, media, the biggest cooperations, and most of all government.

    Conservatism has done absolutely nothing to turn the vicious anti White tide. The only successful White men are the transsexuals. They’re the new media academic corporate even church pets.

    White Nationalists tend to be idiots like the Buffalo supermarket kid and Dylan Roofe. At least Tim McVeigh attacked the real enemy, a government building instead of ordinary people.

    Tucker is fine in that he’s one of the few TV commentators that’s not a screaming hater of Whites. So we’ll have to be satisfied with that. If you’re a conservative.

    There’s no viable White Nationalism to join.

    * The Mellon Foundation which began as a conservative foundation just hired militantly anti White a black woman to head up a 240 million project. The project is rethinking monuments. Her first project is the Confederate monument Stone Mountain. I’m sure she plans to destroy every monument to a White man in America, change the names of the schools colleges and towns. Even east coast towns named Lincoln for the town in England, not Abraham Lincoln.

    In general, Whites are a suicidal useless idiot race; bent on destroying themselves. It’s as much as a death cult as the Aztecs who sacrificed hundreds of teens just entering their productive years at a time.

    There’s nothing we can do about as a group. Any attempt to organize will be filled with informers from numerous government agencies. Like those men who were entrapped by the FBI to kidnap the Governor of Michigan.

    Husband and I realized what was going on very young. He had to deal with Nixon’s Philadelphia Plan designed to destroy every construction company that hires White workers. And ban White man from the industry that was very well paid when both the owners and workers were White men. I had to deal not just with affirmative action; but the thousands of federally funded red diaper babies that swarmed into every city hall and county building in the cities.

    So we made our plans and have preserved an entire clan of successful prosperous blue eyed blondy browny white skinned clan.

    Don’t grovel for a job from the capitalist pigs who forced the government to create and enforce affirmative action. Lie cheat and steal avoid taxes as much as possible. Everybody else does. Why shouldn’t Whites?????? Change your race the way English Catholics in the 1500s changed their religion to Anglican. Some were fervent Old Testament Protestants. But most did it to survive.

    Check the black box. When your kids start kindergarten check the black box. Or change your surname to a Spanish name. Adopt the business ethics of Asian Persian Armenian Indian Russian and Israeli immigrants.

    Our Christian European heritage of honesty and fair dealing is useless for our survival.

    Start a business and get black and Hispanic front men. Then get every affirmative action contract. Not just from government but from all the anti White big businesses.

    Depending on where you live real estate is the best investment. You can rent to the immigrant hordes for their crooked businesses or residents.

    Every organization in America including the churches is against us. Remember that.

    In conclusion, Blair Mountain is right. People like Tucker aren’t anti White. But he isn’t pro White either. Just another conservative.

  45. TWS says:
    @War for Blair Mountain
    Tucker Carlson last night:”‘I am not about Race…White Americans should be about being hyper-individualistic believers in free-markets…..White Americans should not be about race….that’s insane!!!”

    Tucker the Cucker…

    Replies: @Muggles, @TWS

    If he said anything else he would be off the air before the end of his segment. Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Holger Danske is not going to wake up and tear his beard from the table. Not now maybe not ever, until that collective moment comes you work with what you have.

  46. @Jonathan Mason
    @dearieme


    Yes, we should really call it something like “Insular West Germanic”
     
    Not really necessary, considering that Old English is also known as Anglo-Saxon, which is snappier.

    Replies: @dearieme

    Snappier, but it implies that Bede was right in thinking there were quite distinct tribes called the Angles and the Saxons who crossed the North Sea in one-tribe vessels and settled different parts of the country separately. That’s almost certainly untrue. His error is forgivable – poor old Bede had no records to work with so he probably simply made some guesses. That’s why we call the period The Dark Ages after all.

  47. @Muggles

    but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.
     
    From Google:

    When did Rome's population decline?
    Perhaps the best-known example of long-term urban decline is the "fall" of Rome, which took place between the second and sixth centuries AD. During this period, the city of Rome experienced a decline of population from around a million persons to about 30,000.

    In Mark Twain's Innocents Abroad, written from observations circa 1865-67 he describes Rome as a small city, poor and dirty. Known for it's priestly ruling class (who seemed the only well fed citizens) and its many prostitutes. This was prior to the unification of Italy.

    So yes, in such a drastic population decline the many outsiders who had lived in Rome had long died off and/or their descendants had moved on to greener pastures.

    Barbarian invasions, plagues, city state wars which left Rome as a minor political player, and even in the latter centuries of the western Roman Empire, the seat of "imperial" Rome had shifted elsewhere, to wherever the latest Emperor lived or fought from.

    Aside from being the seat of the Catholic Church (for most of the post Empire period) Rome was a backwater.

    Jerusalem also visited by Twain on that trip comes in for an even worse depiction. By then a remote outpost of the Muslim Ottoman Empire. Until the full effects of the Industrial Revolution were reflected in local economies, ancient cities dwindled in importance other than those well suited to international trade and seafaring/river borne trade.

    Aside from pilgrimage sites, no one travels to poor cities to live. Even then pilgrims don't often linger.

    Replies: @dearieme, @Pixo

    being the seat of the Catholic Church

    Perhaps you mean that Rome was the seat of the Roman Catholic Church. But that wasn’t a separate entity, was it, until the Pope flounced out from the other Patriarchs in 1054?

  48. @YetAnotherAnon
    @epebble

    You miss the point. Who's going to want to store their cash where it can be stolen? Where are, say, India going to want to keep their reserves?

    “in New Delhi, recently.. a conversation that took place at the highest levels of India’s government. The topic: how to make sure that the United States could never do to India what it has just done to Russia.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Gokul_Sahni/status/1526051224130269185

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    WaPo:

    “the unprecedented nature of these measures is producing concerns around the world that the United States has “weaponized” its financial power and could lead, over time, to the decline of the dollar’s dominance, which is what gives America its financial superpowers in the first place.

    I’ve been hearing about this firsthand from three sources I trust. The first, in New Delhi, recently told me about a conversation that took place at the highest levels of India’s government. The topic: how to make sure that the United States could never do to India what it has just done to Russia. The second, from Brussels, where staff at the European Commission has been tasked — even while working with Washington on the sanctions — with finding ways to reduce the role of the dollar in its energy imports. The third, an Asian observer of China, speculated that the overly severe lockdowns in Shanghai — which involved the rationing of food and basic supplies — might be part of an effort by Beijing to experiment with a scenario in which it faced economic sanctions from Washington (perhaps after an invasion of Taiwan).

    A debate is raging around the world about whether the dollar’s total dominance of the international financial system is waning. ”

    • Replies: @epebble
    @YetAnotherAnon

    decline of the dollar’s dominance

    Is exactly what is needed if we ever have to give up our addiction of exporting debt and importing everything. Any freshman undergrad in macroeconomics knows the primary reason other countries undervalue their currency is to build up U.S. dollar reserves by exporting (favoring exporting through subsidies, curbing importing through tariffs). This causes U.S. manufacturers to become uncompetitive in producing in U.S. and are then compelled to move abroad to survive profitably. Once the USD is no longer the reserve, there is no more motive to shift production. This will cause inflation, massively, and our living standards will come down. But we will start making our own clothes, shoes, TVs, cars, knick-knacks in Walmart and Amazon. There won't 100,000 opioid deaths due to despondency. As a bonus, there won't be a flood of immigrants from rest of the world too.

  49. And you have to remember that this strategy was implemented after the alliance between Rome and Jews to protect them against their former hosts, the Greek kingdoms … Jews then were both a diaspora in Roman Empire and a State.

    Then the wars among them almost ended the Jews.

  50. @Mitleser
    @Twinkie

    "Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement ... even the Saxon conquest of Britain."

    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.


    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon — that is, DNA segments more similar to the Germans than the Welsh. Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons. These researchers actually found DNA from Dark Age-era graves identified as Anglo-Saxon, and some of these individuals were far more like the Germans in their DNA than the modern English; they differed from earlier Iron Age samples, proving beyond a doubt that a significant number of Germans did cross the North Sea in the 6th century.

    Where does this leave us in relation to the question of whether the transformation of Dark Age Britain to early medieval England was one of genes or memes? The clear answer seems to be both. The emergence of a new style of farming, pottery and the collapse of urban Roman civilization and Christianity in eastern Britain was not simply due to the prestige and power of a small number of German warlords. Whole villages must have transplanted themselves across the North Sea, creating the nucleus of a new people, and absorbed the remaining British Celts. The lack of Celtic loanwords and the adoption of Saxon peasant culture may indicate the self-confidence of the newcomers. If St. Gildas is correct, the British elites moved to the west of the island, leaving the common people to their own devices.

    But though the southern and eastern fringe of England has a substantial Anglo-Saxon demographic imprint, that fades out as one moves to the west, including to the lands that once comprised the kingdom of Wessex. There is far less German genetic influence in Hampshire, Berkshire or Wiltshire, let alone Devon. We know from early medieval records that Celtic language speakers did exist as late as the 8th century in these domains (and much later in Devon) but by then Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language, was dominant.
     
    https://unherd.com/2020/08/who-do-the-english-think-they-are/

    Replies: @dearieme, @obwandiyag, @Prester John, @S. Anonyia, @Twinkie

    Most everyone overlooks plague. There was a great Celtic die-off from disease that facilitated their replacement.

    Moreover, there were significantly large contingents of Germanics living in England even in Roman times.

  51. @epebble
    @Hypnotoad666

    It is war by other means. Most people would any day prefer economic warfare over shooting wars. At least there are no dead bodies and smoking ruins. If U.S. can destroy Russia without killing any Russians, one would call it genius.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @Marquis

    “If.”

    There’s the possibility we destroy our economy, and thus ourselves, in the process.

    • Replies: @epebble
    @Marquis

    Still better than piles of dead bodies and smoldering ruins. For anyone who has watched Ken Burns Civil War, this looks like a walk in the park.

  52. Ancient DNA from bodies dug up in Rome showed that the capital city was highly cosmopolitan in Imperial times, but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides.

    Urban areas might act as demographic sink-holes…

    https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2019/11/09/city-air-makes-you-less-fecund/

    • Replies: @Catdompanj
    @jamie b.

    Like Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, LA etc?

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @jamie b.


    Urban areas might act as demographic sink-holes.
     
    That's been known for ages. But cities have always replenished themselves from the provinces.

    However, the fecundity of the latter isn't what it used to be. Instead of eight kids, Farmer Jones has two, and hires three Mexicans.

    Replies: @Alden

  53. @War for Blair Mountain
    What is the open and deliberate intent of the Democratic Party’s post-1965 non-white LEGAL Immigration Policy…?

    Replies: @epebble, @TG

    Cheap labor.

    • Replies: @Oswald Spengler
    @TG

    Cheap labor and cheap votes from the Third World.

    A win-win for the elites of both parties.

    A lose-lose for everyone else.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @TG


    Cheap labor.
     
    Cheap human labor. Machine and animal labor is also cheap, but with less downside.
  54. The peasants win by patience it would seem. Elites impressively burn out I would have hoped. How many people in the ex-Soviet Union are descendants of Kulaks, despite the best efforts of the Stalinists? I like the theory that people came from Africa, to me it suggests that it took a lot of hard work to become white! My people of course ended up back where we started then..

    • Replies: @Malla
    @James of Africa


    I like the theory that people came from Africa, to me it suggests that it took a lot of hard work to become white!
     
    The people who left Africa were not people related to today's Black Africans, who were a different branch in Africa (had not look like black Africans yet who are comparatively a very recent evolution). Check out the Hofmeyr Skull found in South Africa which was more similar to UP Europeans than Khoi-San and Bantu who arrived in the region much later.
  55. TG says:

    The ancient Romans had a limited fertility rate, which annoyed the elites no end. I mean, paying decent wages? Where is the profit in that! The elites adapted by importing slaves, but still, such a bother. Eventually the elites imported enough immigrants that ‘free’ labor was cheaper than slave labor, and eventually serfdom came to outpace slavery – and things fell apart, and the population fell as a consequence of food distribution networks failing.

    So when Rome had a population not pressing up against the limits, it dominated the western world. When the elites jammed in enough people to ensure widespread subsidence poverty, oh my, Rome became weak and collapsed. More children are always better? Not really.

  56. @dearieme
    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died

    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.

    This is currently happening in much of the world outside Africa.

    Replies: @Charon, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden, @TG, @Anonymous

    The population of Rome went from over a million to less than 50 K.

    Number one reason

    continual almost yearly invasion sackings and killings by various groups. Rome survived the Celt invasion sacking 300BC the Goths about 400 AD and the massacres and destruction by Carlos 1539 AD which was a mere kertuffle.

    After about 450 AD the invasions massacres of fighting men sacking looting taking of slaves got so bad that all over W Europe the cities just became unsafe to live in. Better a farm on the edge of a forest where people and their livestock could hide when the next bandit horde swept in.
    Rome being so big and famous was one of the biggest targets .

    So people were killed or enslaved or left town for a small farm and hunting. Meanwhile, N Italy was doing well and creating a new culture very early medieval Christianity. Protected by the Eastern Roman empire in Constantinople and Greece..

    Think of Whites fleeing cities for suburbs because of black terrorism. Baltimore Atlanta Newark Detroit Chicago Oakland 1922 and 2022. It happened very fast in America didn’t it? 1950 to 1970.

    Romans had children who were killed enslaved or died because of the after effects of the bandit tribe looting. The Romans left Rime because it was just too dangerous a place to live from about 450 to 1,000. After about 700 Muslim Arabs joined attacking Rome. Sailed up the Tiber River . The Vatican was like a downtown or civic center no wall everybody could just walk in. The wall around the Vatican was built 800 AD because Muslims occupied the rest of the city for a while slave raiding what was left of the population.

    The period 400 to about 900 saw the population of W Europe moving back to the country forests and swamps to avoid the continuing bandit invasions. The bandit tribes didn’t seem interested in conquest and establishing functional societies just looting killing and taking slaves.

    That’s why people fled the cities to the country where they could grow food hunt fish and raise animals And children who wouldn’t be killed or taken in the next slave raid.

    Reason number two
    The Justinian Plague. About 500 to 700 AD wiped out much of the population of W Europe N Africa what’s now Iraq Syria and probably the Greeks.

    It was that Justinian plague that allowed the Southern Arabs converted to Islam to conquer the Mid East N Africa Spain Portygual Sicily etc. the Justinian plague killed so many Not enough population to resist.

    No history of Europe N Africa and the Mid East can be written without including the extreme de population of the Justinian plague.

    The depopulation of England was an example. The country was Romanized and then became Christian. The papacy continued the old Roman system of provincial governors reporting to the Emperor. Now bishops and popes.

    By 600 .nothing had been heard from England for about /00 years. So the Pope sent Augustine to basically see what was left. Augustine found the survivors knew nothing of Christianity or the 400 year Roman occupation . Just one example of how devasting the Justinian Plague was.

    And how many children do you have fertility fetisher? Takes 3 you know.

    It was Gibbons Protestants masons jews and liberals who wiped all mention of the Justinian plague from the history books. As they wanted to blame the fall of great and glorious Rome and the not so dark ages on Christianity.

    Some men fetish’s about porn. Some men fetish about other people having the children they don’t have.

  57. TG says:
    @dearieme
    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died

    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.

    This is currently happening in much of the world outside Africa.

    Replies: @Charon, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden, @TG, @Anonymous

    I respectfully disagree.

    There are two kinds of societies. In a first world society, people are careful not to have more children than they can REASONABLY support – however small or large that number. Essentially all prosperous societies are like this.

    In a third-world society, people have the physical maximum of children regardless of circumstance. This creates great poverty, and eventually population stabilizes because of chronic malnutrition. This has already happened in India and Pakistan, where food production per capita is at a low level of minimal subsistence and chronic malnutrition is as bad as it’s ever been. This is hardly a case of people dying out for lack of breeding.

    When the rich of a first-world society import surplus population from a third world society, this drives down living standards and the first-worlders respond by limiting their fertility rate.

    It is a blame-the-victim slander to say that we have to import third world refugees because our our population refuses to breed – without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher. It just would not be high enough to create poverty and drive wages down, which is the whole point.

    Saying that first-worlders should respond to invasion by third-worlders, by also breeding to the physical maximum, so that the rich won’t need to import third-worlders in order to drive labor costs down, is like saying that you should commit suicide to avoid the prospect of being murdered (apologies to Bismarck).

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
    • Thanks: Rob
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @TG

    Agreed completely, TG, but both you and Charon seem to think Dearieme was implying that we'd have to outbreed the world. He was by no means implying that. He just noted what's been happening.

    , @Rob
    @TG

    Fantastic comment. I could not decide whether to • Thanks • Agree. I would have happily used two of my three daily reactions.

    My mental model of heritable differences (both within and between populations) is that we have different transfer functions. A transfer function describes the output of a system, often an electronic circuit, for different inputs. Take sending music through a speaker. If you add a low pass filter it will remove high frequencies from an input signal. A high pass does the opposite. A song played through speakers with different filters can be very different.

    A transfer function can be found for a circuit you understand, but it can also be a ‘black box’ with insides that you don’t understand at all. Take “tiger parenting,” it works on Asian kids, but if you tried it with black kids? If you tell an Asian boy to sit in a quiet room and grind through math problems for three hours, the out will be pages and pages of problems solved. A black boy would likely have drawn doodles all over the paper, and then spent 2 hours working on his “beats,” because he’s an aspiring rapper.

    Seriously, it used to be well-known that different children have different “natures.” Some kids are cooperative, and some are hellions. Some are naturally kind to animals, but others are drawn toward torturing them. The input of a cat and a string in a small room with a kid for an hour could be a cat whose tired from having chased a string for an hour. With a different boy, the output might be an asphyxiated cat.

    This mental model of HBD/sociology/people accounts for things like a tendency to blog in one’s free time might have a narrow-sense heritability of 0.6, yet no one’s great grandparents were bloggers. A change in the environment changes people, but it does not change all people in the same ways. Of course, the changed environment can change the selection pressures, so eventually, the population adapts in various directions.

    This is relevant to your comment thusly: how many children people have in various situations is probably affected a lot by genes. In Rome, slaves had a TFR less than the 2.whatever it takes to maintain a steady population. In North America, slaves in the South had a really high TFR. The black population grew on its own. That’s really unusual for slavery. Why would white Roman slaves die off, but black African slaves still had kids even though conditions were fairly poor? Because Africans in malarial regions had a big chunk of their kids die from sickle cell in addition to malaria, and all the viral, protozoan, helminth, and I’m sure I’m missing some categories. Blacks will have kids in much poorer material, economic, cultural, etc circumstances than whites will. If they weren’t, they’d have died out in slavery and probably not been imported into the country in the first place.

    Somewhat paradoxically, as most anyone’s material circumstances improve on paper, birth rates go down. I saw something that may or may not be true, that a Russian oligarch was going to pay something like 100 women to have his kids. But that’s one really rich guy. They “should” all be doing that and similar things. Heck, buy high-quality eggs, fertilize them with his sperm in vitro, then hire surrogates to carry the babies to term, and then put the kids up for adoption! I don’t think there’s a law against it. There are a ton of couples who’d love to adopt healthy white babies with great genes. Those gay couples wouldn’t have to settle for mongoloid black kids or unwanted Romanian gypsy babies. They could have the mother’s Ivy league-quality genes and a brilliant billionaire’s on the father’s side.

    The material prosperity of the West, including all the empty calories, combined with precarious economic circumstances for a huge fraction of the population, plus birth control, and I think under-appreciated, constant exposure to (somewhat fantasy) lives and lifestyles of beautiful people. Women and girls like to describe their boyfriends and prospects as looking like whichever movie star. Guys do too. For people (more and more every day) who don’t look like movie stars? Prospects are slim (though they (ok, we) are not).

    The people having kids are not the best adapted to the economy, they are often the best adapted to the very easy (in terms of intelligence and maybe physical ability) ecological niches modern society has.

    What’s the line from Taxi Driver, ah thank you internet, “ Someday a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets.” I’ll be swept away with the scum, but the debt will catch up with the US, and society will have to pay for all of the (welfare in all but name) programs from taxes. The accountants will say, “Mr. Investor, your kids or grandkids will have to pay for these people who are reproducing at x%/year. If the problem were half the size in the next generation, then it would be half as expensive. Plus, think of the lower greenhouse gas emissions from a smaller population.” This logic can be extended to a quarter of the size, then an eighth... Perhaps they’ll use some verbal Jiu Jutsu. The one-child policy made the extremely poor Chinese into a first-world, developed country. We want that for all the poor ghetto children.”

    , @kaganovitch
    @TG

    without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher.

    I'm generally sympathetic to this point of view but it should be noted that Japan, who did not import a third world population, nevertheless saw a drastic, perhaps suicidal, drop in fertility. There is something rotten at the heart of our era, some loss of cultural self-assurance, that is undermining the foundations of our civilization.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @J.Ross, @Aidan Kehoe

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    @TG


    "Saying that first-worlders should respond to invasion by third-worlders, by also breeding to the physical maximum, so that the rich won’t need to import third-worlders in order to drive labor costs down, is like saying that you should commit suicide to avoid the prospect of being murdered (apologies to Bismarck)."
     
    OTOH, in a world where intelligent white people are getting fewer (partly because many educated white women are childless), having a bunch (3 or more) of bright kids isn't committing suicide - far from it.

    It does make me sad though to see bright female friends who were utterly gorgeous in youth ending up childless. Terrible waste of good genes.
  58. @Mitleser
    @Twinkie

    "Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement ... even the Saxon conquest of Britain."

    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.


    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon — that is, DNA segments more similar to the Germans than the Welsh. Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons. These researchers actually found DNA from Dark Age-era graves identified as Anglo-Saxon, and some of these individuals were far more like the Germans in their DNA than the modern English; they differed from earlier Iron Age samples, proving beyond a doubt that a significant number of Germans did cross the North Sea in the 6th century.

    Where does this leave us in relation to the question of whether the transformation of Dark Age Britain to early medieval England was one of genes or memes? The clear answer seems to be both. The emergence of a new style of farming, pottery and the collapse of urban Roman civilization and Christianity in eastern Britain was not simply due to the prestige and power of a small number of German warlords. Whole villages must have transplanted themselves across the North Sea, creating the nucleus of a new people, and absorbed the remaining British Celts. The lack of Celtic loanwords and the adoption of Saxon peasant culture may indicate the self-confidence of the newcomers. If St. Gildas is correct, the British elites moved to the west of the island, leaving the common people to their own devices.

    But though the southern and eastern fringe of England has a substantial Anglo-Saxon demographic imprint, that fades out as one moves to the west, including to the lands that once comprised the kingdom of Wessex. There is far less German genetic influence in Hampshire, Berkshire or Wiltshire, let alone Devon. We know from early medieval records that Celtic language speakers did exist as late as the 8th century in these domains (and much later in Devon) but by then Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language, was dominant.
     
    https://unherd.com/2020/08/who-do-the-english-think-they-are/

    Replies: @dearieme, @obwandiyag, @Prester John, @S. Anonyia, @Twinkie

    “Wessex” translates roughly to “West Saxon”, yet the article suggests that Saxon influence had “faded”.
    Does that mean that they were a previously dominant minority who were eventually displaced by Celtic-speakers Welsh? If so, roughly when. It would be interesting to know the chronology here.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Prester John


    “Wessex” translates roughly to “West Saxon”, yet the article suggests that Saxon influence had “faded”.
     
    Interesting factoid about the Kingdom of Wessex: although it is often cited as THE major Saxon kingdom whence Alfred the Great initiated the great project of uniting all the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms - indeed, it is often described as the last redoubt of the Saxons when the Danelaw was dominant in Britain - it now appears that the early kings of Wessex were likely Brythonic (from their names). If so, it might very well be that Wessex was a native kingdom where the elites began to mimic the invaders and underwent acculturation in the ways of the latter (much as the Roman elites did in places such as Gaul and Italy), rather than an intrusive kingdom of the invaders.
  59. @YetAnotherAnon
    @AKAHorace

    "Difficult to kill or displace most people."

    Not so 4,000 years ago, when the R1b guys rode into Europe.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/is-distinctive-dna-marker-proof-of-ancient-genocide-1.1426197

    Replies: @anon, @Anon, @Coemgen

    They were already in Europe. They merely rode in to Western Europe. Western Russia and Ukraine, where the “Steppe” guys ventured out from in the first major migrations, is in Eastern Europe, after all.

  60. @Peter Akuleyev
    Venice was founded by Roman cosmopolitan urbanites fleeing the Germanic hordes - but mostly from Aquileia - a once major Roman city with over 100,000 inhabitants that is now a small town.

    Some of the Roman upper class moved to Constantinople.

    An interesting question is how much of the Roman upper class was siphoned off by the Church?

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @Alden, @Alden

    Venice was not founded by Romans who traveled 300 miles North east to live in an uninhabited swamp. North was where most of the invaders came from. It was founded by a combination of the indigenous Celts whi’d lived in N East Italy for several thousand years and earlier German Gith invaders who’d settled down.

    They fled east from the invaders until they came to the sea. The invaders left the Venetian swamps alone because there was nothing there to loot.

    • Replies: @Catdompanj
    @Alden

    True, but they also didn't follow for the same reasons Whites didn't chase seminoles or slaves into the Everglades.

    Replies: @Alden

    , @Peter Akuleyev
    @Alden

    Aquileia is not 300 miles away from Venice. It is just inland. The inhabitants of Aquileia were Roman urbanites in the sense that they were upper class and Roman citizens.

    Venice was not founded by Germans and Celts. The Aquileian founders went to the swamps to escape the Germanic hordes. In many ways Venice was the last true Roman city in Italy and recognized Byzantine authority right up until Byzantium became too weak to take seriously.

  61. @J.Ross
    OT how to post webms on unz?
    Just saw the perfect webm illustrating The West (or what the Saker calls "Zone A"):
    In the corner of the room is a baby crib. In the center of the room is a stripper pole. Mom is twirling down and around the stripper pole with one arm out. The orderly lines of the crib bars are eclipsed by an infant girl, probably before the stage of speech, riding a toy truck. The truck makes its way across the bars of the crib as Mom continues twirling. The truck passes the pole. It gets a foot and a half past. Mom's extended arm is led by the twirl to whack the girl in the head. The girl falls off her truck and begins bawling. Mom continues twirling. Mom is white by the way.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Prester John

    Spengler may still turn out to have been correct.

  62. @Hypnotoad666
    @dearieme


    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.
     
    People also forget that cosmopolitan cities were breeding grounds of disease with substantially lower life expectancy than the surrounding countryside. The Romans were good with sanitation and water projects. But Rome at its height must still have been the greatest imperial petri dish of all time.

    So disease is another reason that dense urban populations might not leave as much genetic ancestry behind as you'd otherwise expect.

    Replies: @Alden, @Anon

    For most of human history the average family was 8 or 9 pregnancies some miscarriages, some still births , some babies died in the first couple years and net teens per family 2 or 3 lived to adulthood. Women died in childbirth men of warfare and industrial agricultural accidents and everybody died of diseases and malnutrition

  63. Pixo says:
    @Twinkie

    during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).

    Replies: @Mitleser, @Almost Missouri, @Pixo

    “ Völkerwanderung was elite replacement”

    The Germanic conquest of the Western Empire was elite blending rather than replacement. They married into the Roman landowning families rather than kill them all.

    Besides their sincere Christianity and aversion to murder, their conquest would be more secure with the consent of local Romans who were both the majority and occasionally could get a competent army together even very late in their decline.

    • Agree: Twinkie
  64. @Muggles

    but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.
     
    From Google:

    When did Rome's population decline?
    Perhaps the best-known example of long-term urban decline is the "fall" of Rome, which took place between the second and sixth centuries AD. During this period, the city of Rome experienced a decline of population from around a million persons to about 30,000.

    In Mark Twain's Innocents Abroad, written from observations circa 1865-67 he describes Rome as a small city, poor and dirty. Known for it's priestly ruling class (who seemed the only well fed citizens) and its many prostitutes. This was prior to the unification of Italy.

    So yes, in such a drastic population decline the many outsiders who had lived in Rome had long died off and/or their descendants had moved on to greener pastures.

    Barbarian invasions, plagues, city state wars which left Rome as a minor political player, and even in the latter centuries of the western Roman Empire, the seat of "imperial" Rome had shifted elsewhere, to wherever the latest Emperor lived or fought from.

    Aside from being the seat of the Catholic Church (for most of the post Empire period) Rome was a backwater.

    Jerusalem also visited by Twain on that trip comes in for an even worse depiction. By then a remote outpost of the Muslim Ottoman Empire. Until the full effects of the Industrial Revolution were reflected in local economies, ancient cities dwindled in importance other than those well suited to international trade and seafaring/river borne trade.

    Aside from pilgrimage sites, no one travels to poor cities to live. Even then pilgrims don't often linger.

    Replies: @dearieme, @Pixo

    “ Jerusalem also visited by Twain on that trip comes in for an even worse depiction. By then a remote outpost of the Muslim Ottoman Empire.”

    As the early Zionists put it, it was a land without people for a people without a land.

  65. @Muggles
    @War for Blair Mountain

    I watched last night and I don't think he said what you claim.

    By all means, attack the only person on televised news who isn't a Woke puppet or Narrative Bringer.

    He has the highest ratings of any cable new program on any network. To most, that is good news.

    You on the other hand want to disparage anyone who doesn't parrot whatever your beliefs are.

    I'm sure your long suffering cat doesn't give a shit either...

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Alden

    Tucker has come very close to explicitly saying that the immigration invasion has been done to replace the White Middle Class. He may not have put those words together in a string, but he’s said as much As you wrote, he’s got most viewers of any news program, so he can’t be quite as straight up as Steve Sailer. He would be cancelled. He has slowly ramped up toward the truth though.

  66. Off-Topic: Even if you are one of the folks who think Russia is evil and Ukraine is actually kicking so much ass on the battlefield that they are getting tired of winning, you still have to marvel at the hilarious dishonesty of our propaganda media. To wit: “Nazis hiding in a basement finally surrender” gets translated as “freedom fighters are evacuated” (to Russian POW camps).

    Below the fold is the Moon of Alabama post that sums it up. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-for-laughs.html#more

    [MORE]

    ‘Western’ media are nothing but Zelenski regime megaphones.

    Liveuamap @Liveuamap – 21:30 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Zelensky confirms Azovstal troops evacuation: «Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive. This has been our principle»
    https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-may… via @myroslavapetsa

    The New York Times @nytimes – 22:59 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Breaking News: Ukraine ended its “combat mission” in Mariupol and said fighters were being evacuated, signaling that the battle at a steel plant was over.
    link

    CNN International @cnni – 23:39 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Ukrainian forces say they have ended their “combat mission” in besieged Mariupol, as hundreds are evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant. https://cnn.it/3FQALcV

    Reuters @Reuters – 3:35 AM · May 17, 2022
    Ukraine’s military said it was working to evacuate all remaining troops from their last stronghold in the besieged port of Mariupol, ceding control of the city to Russia after months of bombardment https://reut.rs/3wlYbUG
    From the false headline down the Washington Post report on the issue is a master piece of propaganda:

    Ukraine ends bloody battle for Mariupol, evacuates Azovstal fighters

    Ukrainian fighters have ended their weeks-long defense of a besieged steel plant in the strategic port city of Mariupol, as hundreds of combatants — dozens of them seriously wounded — were evacuated from the complex Monday.
    One has to read beyond 323 words of falsehood to find out, down in paragraph 7, what really has happened.

    Moscow hasn’t yet publicly responded to the developments in Mariupol, which were described by Russian state media as an order from Ukrainian military command for its troops to “surrender.”
    Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, said 53 seriously wounded soldiers were taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk, a nearby town which is controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Another 211 were transported to another Russian-aligned village, Olenivka, she said. Moscow and Kyiv are brokering a prisoner swap to secure their release.

    Malyar said officials were still working to rescue the remaining soldiers, though it is unclear how many are still inside. Ukrainian authorities said last week there were nearly 1,000 holdout fighters in the plant.

    The f***ers finally gave up and surrendered unconditionally to the Russian forces as their only alternative was to decease within the next hours or days.

    I am sure that the Russian authorities will apply a fine filter to determine who of those prisoners of war are allegeable for war crime prosecutions, de-nazification and a long stay in some north Siberian road builder camp.

    There are also rumors of NATO personnel presence in the Azovstal catacombs. They will likely get to know the cellars of the famous Lubyanka building in Moscow before being exchanged in this or that deal with their home countries.

    The rest will eventually be exchanged for Russian soldiers who are unfortunately held by the Ukrainian military. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-for-laughs.html#more

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @Hypnotoad666

    Amusingly, the Ukrainians are using the term "denazify" to describe dead Russkies.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1525869598372990980?cxt=HHwWiMC4iZeU_awqAAAA

    While running up the Putin dead Russkie count... how long before the conscripts figure out being cannon fodder isn't a good career move?

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1526446476058148864?cxt=HHwWgIC-4fC-g68qAAAA

    Replies: @WJ

    , @Alden
    @Hypnotoad666

    I just skimmed through the April 29 to May 2 issue of Time Magazine. A huge warmongering article praising Ukraine to the skies and down in Russia. Like the British newspapers must have been about evil Germany saintly martyr Russia during WW2. Vomit inducing propaganda.

    Replies: @Stan Adams

  67. Anonymous[334] • Disclaimer says:

    Lucky for Europe, the people who prevailed were the Germanics, a more pure-blooded European people. And it’s a good thing they smashed the Roman Empire as the it might have brought in more non-Europeans who might have taken over. But the Germanics, due to geographical proximity and fighting spirit, gained the upper-hand among all the non-Romans with a stake in the system.
    They preserved Europe with barbarian vitality and glory.

    Some say Europe would have achieved more if the Roman empire had survived, but look at Byzantine. It survived and gradually atrophied into insignificance, whereas the Europe remade by Germanic barbarism led to all sorts of great achievements. Civilization must be infused with barbarian spirit. This spirit can come from without, as with the Germanics, or can be recovered from within. When Anglos spread out into the American wilderness, they reconnected with their barbarian warrior roots and injected vitality into Americanism. They got rid of all that hoity toity fruity stuff.

    Western Rome was left vulnerable as it was relatively neglected in favor of Eastern Rome, which the empire saw as the real prize as it was nearer to the great civilizations of the Near East and North Africa. In contrast, Western Rome was connected to the barbarian North, a people the Romans had less respect for(except in robust body and strength).

    When Western Rome fell, it seemed the empire was vindicated. Its future greatness was with Eastern Rome and its relations with other great civilizations. It could afford to lose Western Rome to a bunch of barbarians from the North.

    But what an irony of history that Germanic Barbarian takeover of Rome would lay the seeds for European revival and greatness whereas Eastern Rome’s connections with other civilizations led to stagnation and inertia, ultra-conservatism, orthodoxy, and politics as nothing but series of court intrigue. Also, the East did far less with classical culture(despite possessing its knowledge) than the West even though the barbarians smashed so much of it.

    What can save Europe? Neo-barbarianism. White warriors in fighting mode acting like Vikings of Old and kicking butt all over. Blood blood everywhere and not a drop to mourn.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Anonymous

    “What can save Europe? Neo-barbarianism. White warriors in fighting mode acting like Vikings of Old and kicking butt all over. Blood blood everywhere and not a drop to mourn.“

    So, would Mr. Sailer agree with your call to arms? Maybe. Furthermore, your violent rhetoric, is that cosplay on your part, or are you planning to imitate the Buffalo man?

    , @kaganovitch
    @Anonymous

    What can save Europe? Neo-barbarianism. White warriors in fighting mode acting like Vikings of Old and kicking butt all over. Blood blood everywhere and not a drop to mourn.

    Rather than wait for emasculated Vikings to rediscover their barbarian roots, alternatively they can import actual present day barbarians from Afghanistan or Chechnya. Doubtless that will work out splendidly as the Norsemen are discovering to their great joy.

    , @Malla
    @Anonymous


    whereas the Europe remade by Germanic barbarism led to all sorts of great achievements. Civilization must be infused with barbarian spirit.
     
    High IQ barbarians.
  68. >but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.

    Medieval Roman aristocracy like the Crescentii or the Orsini claimed to have ties to Rome going back to the republic, but you know how much that’s worth. Obviously, Rome was no longer a megacity after the cancellation of the bread dole, but Rome owed its total depopulation in the 6th Century to two other factors: Justinian’s wars and the bubonic plague, both of which were the kinds of disasters that the city couldn’t bounce back from. (Bubonic plague, unlike previous pandemics, decimated the rural population as much as the urban one, hence why new settlers didn’t come flowing in.) By the time Pope Gregory I came to office, the population of the city could fit in a corner of the ruined Colosseum.

    Interestingly, and perhaps fittingly, Gregory was the authentic article: he did actually come from an old patrician family. While we have no evidence his tree went all the way back to the republican era, whose aristocracy was totally decimated during the wars surrounding the collapse of the republic and the rise of the Principate, he still talked using such terms as “our republic”, an indication of the conservatism of the ancient world even as people thought they were living in the apocalypse. His papacy was as much him being the last real consul of the city of Rome alongside him being the first medieval pontiff.

    • Thanks: Alden
    • Replies: @HFR
    @nebulafox

    Ordinarily, I wouldn't say anything about the use of the word decimate, but since you are writing about Rome, I can't resist. You write that "Bubonic plague...decimated the rural population..." Did you mean 10%? That in itself would be quite serious, so perhaps you did. More confusingly, in the next paragraph, you write: "...the republican era...aristocracy was totally decimated..." That sounds more like "annihilated."

    I'm puzzled that decimate is being used so frequently to substitute for such a range of perfectly clear words: destroy, crush, annihilate, demolish, vanquish, et al.

    As you've probably guessed, I'm an editor. I constantly correct (only in my head), newspaper headlines, bus signs, writing on cereal boxes, anything in print. Obviously, for some reason, the use of decimate to mean anything but 1 out of 10 has really gotten under my skin.

    Replies: @rebel yell

  69. @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie



    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).
     
    Modern Western elites tend to be cosmopolitan, but "cosmopolitan" and "elite" may not always be synonyms for ancient Rome, much less for the Dark Ages.

    The Norman keep that dominated English settlements after 1066 was typically outside of and physically above (in elevation) the population it was dominating. And of course most of these settlements were at best just agricultural trade centers, since industry had mostly disappeared with the Roman Empire.

    Even in "cosmopolitan" Rome of the Imperial Era, while the elite maintained hillcrest villas for themselves in Rome, their true home and base was usually on their rural latifundia. Mark Antony's assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum.

    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.

    Historically, the elites dominating a country usually had some kind of countryside base, be it the steppe for the Mongol Khans in China, the orchards and forests for Norman Lords in England, or the grain and olive estates for Roman Senators.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have "country houses" too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network. It is peculiar then how much more hostile than the historical elites are the modern elites to the continued existence of techno-industrial civilization...

    Replies: @LP5, @Cortes, @nebulafox, @Twinkie, @animalogic

    One of the major differences between the pre-modern world and today is how urbanized the latter is compared to the former. With the level of technology the classical world had, feeding half a million people in an urban center, let alone a million, was a non-trivial logistical achievement, and it showed. Until London’s industrial boom in the 18th Century, Europe would not see another city with over a million people after Rome fell. There were others outside of Europe at various points in history who had a million people, but they were few and far between: Baghdad before the Mongol sack, Tokyo by the 18th Century, the various Chinese capitals during high dynasty phases, that kind of thing.

    The point being: until the last century or two (and it should be said: for much of the world, until much more recently than that) the vast majority of the populace was rural and agrarian. It’s one more example of how we really are an outlier treading unprecedented waters with unprecedented levels of technology.

    • Agree: AKAHorace
  70. @dearieme
    @Charon

    You imply that the solution is for non-africans to try and out-reproduce africans. That way lies insanity.

    I imply nothing of the sort.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Charon is just sore that you demoted his big brother to a dwarf.

    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    @Reg Cæsar

    I always liked the description of Pluto in the old Information Please almanac: "Appropriately named for the Roman god of the underworld, it must be frozen, dark, and dead."

  71. @J.Ross
    OT -- planned collapse -- Who would've done business in China if the Chinese just stole the last brick and bolt from every foreign investment? Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.
    https://i.postimg.cc/NG1vF8g5/1652778025592.png

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666, @nebulafox

    Only two groups of people can possibly by shocked by this: politicians and journalists.

  72. Anon[268] • Disclaimer says:

    Ancient DNA from bodies dug up in Rome showed that the capital city was highly cosmopolitan in Imperial times, but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.

    This isn’t quite right. Demographically, Imperial Rome was Levantine shifted, while the earlier Roman Republic had been more northern European shifted. The barbarian invasions didn’t just collapse Imperial Rome, but also demographically shifted the rural populations of the Italian peninsula, particularly its northern half, in a more northern European direction.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Anon

    Thank you, that was interesting. But how do you know this?

    , @T.Chris
    @Anon

    That's BS. Roman Republicans were genetically fully Southern European (between Iberia and Greece) just like Modern Italians. They were never like Northern Europeans. And there weren't enough barbarian invaders to change the entire peninsula and rural populations.

    https://italianthro.blogspot.com/2019/11/ancient-roman-dna.html

  73. Cicero wrote that social cohesion holds society together. He explicitly meant Romans helping other Romans.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Thea


    Cicero wrote that social cohesion holds society together.
     
    I don't know the Latin term for it, but the Greek word is tautology.


    Non fæcem, Scirlocius!
  74. @Marquis
    @epebble

    “If.”

    There’s the possibility we destroy our economy, and thus ourselves, in the process.

    Replies: @epebble

    Still better than piles of dead bodies and smoldering ruins. For anyone who has watched Ken Burns Civil War, this looks like a walk in the park.

  75. @Hypnotoad666
    Off-Topic: Even if you are one of the folks who think Russia is evil and Ukraine is actually kicking so much ass on the battlefield that they are getting tired of winning, you still have to marvel at the hilarious dishonesty of our propaganda media. To wit: "Nazis hiding in a basement finally surrender" gets translated as "freedom fighters are evacuated" (to Russian POW camps).

    Below the fold is the Moon of Alabama post that sums it up. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-for-laughs.html#more



    'Western' media are nothing but Zelenski regime megaphones.

    Liveuamap @Liveuamap - 21:30 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Zelensky confirms Azovstal troops evacuation: «Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive. This has been our principle»
    https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-may... via @myroslavapetsa
    ---
    The New York Times @nytimes - 22:59 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Breaking News: Ukraine ended its “combat mission” in Mariupol and said fighters were being evacuated, signaling that the battle at a steel plant was over.
    link
    ---
    CNN International @cnni - 23:39 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Ukrainian forces say they have ended their "combat mission" in besieged Mariupol, as hundreds are evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant. https://cnn.it/3FQALcV
    ---
    Reuters @Reuters - 3:35 AM · May 17, 2022
    Ukraine's military said it was working to evacuate all remaining troops from their last stronghold in the besieged port of Mariupol, ceding control of the city to Russia after months of bombardment https://reut.rs/3wlYbUG
    From the false headline down the Washington Post report on the issue is a master piece of propaganda:

    Ukraine ends bloody battle for Mariupol, evacuates Azovstal fighters

    Ukrainian fighters have ended their weeks-long defense of a besieged steel plant in the strategic port city of Mariupol, as hundreds of combatants — dozens of them seriously wounded — were evacuated from the complex Monday.
    One has to read beyond 323 words of falsehood to find out, down in paragraph 7, what really has happened.

    Moscow hasn’t yet publicly responded to the developments in Mariupol, which were described by Russian state media as an order from Ukrainian military command for its troops to “surrender.”
    Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, said 53 seriously wounded soldiers were taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk, a nearby town which is controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Another 211 were transported to another Russian-aligned village, Olenivka, she said. Moscow and Kyiv are brokering a prisoner swap to secure their release.

    Malyar said officials were still working to rescue the remaining soldiers, though it is unclear how many are still inside. Ukrainian authorities said last week there were nearly 1,000 holdout fighters in the plant.

    The f***ers finally gave up and surrendered unconditionally to the Russian forces as their only alternative was to decease within the next hours or days.

    I am sure that the Russian authorities will apply a fine filter to determine who of those prisoners of war are allegeable for war crime prosecutions, de-nazification and a long stay in some north Siberian road builder camp.

    There are also rumors of NATO personnel presence in the Azovstal catacombs. They will likely get to know the cellars of the famous Lubyanka building in Moscow before being exchanged in this or that deal with their home countries.

    The rest will eventually be exchanged for Russian soldiers who are unfortunately held by the Ukrainian military. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-for-laughs.html#more
     

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Alden

    Amusingly, the Ukrainians are using the term “denazify” to describe dead Russkies.

    While running up the Putin dead Russkie count… how long before the conscripts figure out being cannon fodder isn’t a good career move?

    • Replies: @WJ
    @Joe Stalin

    How long did it take young Americans to figure out that the iraq war was a loser and losing an eye for Iraqi democracy was not a good idea?

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

  76. @TG
    @War for Blair Mountain

    Cheap labor.

    Replies: @Oswald Spengler, @Reg Cæsar

    Cheap labor and cheap votes from the Third World.

    A win-win for the elites of both parties.

    A lose-lose for everyone else.

  77. HFR says:
    @nebulafox
    >but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.

    Medieval Roman aristocracy like the Crescentii or the Orsini claimed to have ties to Rome going back to the republic, but you know how much that's worth. Obviously, Rome was no longer a megacity after the cancellation of the bread dole, but Rome owed its total depopulation in the 6th Century to two other factors: Justinian's wars and the bubonic plague, both of which were the kinds of disasters that the city couldn't bounce back from. (Bubonic plague, unlike previous pandemics, decimated the rural population as much as the urban one, hence why new settlers didn't come flowing in.) By the time Pope Gregory I came to office, the population of the city could fit in a corner of the ruined Colosseum.

    Interestingly, and perhaps fittingly, Gregory was the authentic article: he did actually come from an old patrician family. While we have no evidence his tree went all the way back to the republican era, whose aristocracy was totally decimated during the wars surrounding the collapse of the republic and the rise of the Principate, he still talked using such terms as "our republic", an indication of the conservatism of the ancient world even as people thought they were living in the apocalypse. His papacy was as much him being the last real consul of the city of Rome alongside him being the first medieval pontiff.

    Replies: @HFR

    Ordinarily, I wouldn’t say anything about the use of the word decimate, but since you are writing about Rome, I can’t resist. You write that “Bubonic plague…decimated the rural population…” Did you mean 10%? That in itself would be quite serious, so perhaps you did. More confusingly, in the next paragraph, you write: “…the republican era…aristocracy was totally decimated…” That sounds more like “annihilated.”

    I’m puzzled that decimate is being used so frequently to substitute for such a range of perfectly clear words: destroy, crush, annihilate, demolish, vanquish, et al.

    As you’ve probably guessed, I’m an editor. I constantly correct (only in my head), newspaper headlines, bus signs, writing on cereal boxes, anything in print. Obviously, for some reason, the use of decimate to mean anything but 1 out of 10 has really gotten under my skin.

    • Replies: @rebel yell
    @HFR

    Well, decimate originally meant to kill one in ten. But like many words its meaning has grown over time through metaphorical use. It now is generally used to mean "kill, destroy, or remove a large percentage or part of."
    The definition of a word is decided by its common useage(s). The historical useage and origin of a word is of secondary importance. As long as your intended audience gets your meaning when you use a word you have used it correctly.

  78. @dearieme
    @Mitleser

    Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language

    Yes, we should really call it something like "Insular West Germanic".

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason, @Reg Cæsar

    Yes, we should really call it something like “Insular West Germanic”.

    That term would also fit Faroese, Icelandic, Brooklynese, and, when you think about it, “da kine” and PNG Pigeon.

  79. @Indifferent Contrarian
    The Grand Strategy of the Anglo-American Empire:
    Spread democracy and gay sex, invite the World.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Reg Cæsar

    The Grand Strategy of the Anglo-American Empire:
    Spread democracy and gay sex...

    As Mencken said of one and might have of the other, they know what they want and deserve to get it… good and hard.

    Gaetan Dugas is the new Woodrow Wilson!

  80. @Thea
    Cicero wrote that social cohesion holds society together. He explicitly meant Romans helping other Romans.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Cicero wrote that social cohesion holds society together.

    I don’t know the Latin term for it, but the Greek word is tautology.

    Non fæcem, Scirlocius!

  81. Anonymous[256] • Disclaimer says:
    @J

    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died
     
    Malaria killed off most Mediterranean coastal populations including Rome, Athens, and Caesaria.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Yes malaria arrived from Africa via Egypt during the late empire and caused great loss of life, like new diseases usually do.

  82. 3000YBP-present barely avoids the Late Bronze Age Collapse of ~1177BCE (~3200YBP) – when the Eastern Mediterranean and parts of North Africa went from being a thriving cosmopolitan trade-rich region with significant cultural exchange, to basically autarchic subsistence for everyone (possibly excluding Egypt, although even Egypt underwent massive negative changes).

    This period pre-dates what we term ‘Ancient Greece’ (~700-480BCE) by almost half a millennium; it predates Imperial Rome by over a millennium.

    Minoan, Mycenaean, Hittite, Assyrian and Egyptian Empires conducted diplomacy, trade, occasional wars, and did all the stuff we associate with ‘civilisation’ – including monumental architecture, some of which is still standing – at a time when the Angles, Jutes, Celts and Saxons were wandering around in animal skins (to be fair, they were still doing that when the Romans arrived 1200 years later).

    One of the most fascinating books I’ve read in the last decade, is Eric Cline’s “1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed” (Amazon link).

    It is staggering how much documentary evidence survives from the period (largely in the form of clay tablets, but also Egyptian statuary and stelae) – there are entire letters between rulers, including things like Hittite and Egyptian copies of the treaty organised after the Battle of Kadesh (1274BCE), which enables differential analysis of the competing narratives. (For those playing at home, it turns out that Ramesses II lied when he said it was a rout: it ended in a stalemate, as evidenced by the Hittite version).

    Also interesting was the brief excursus on why Shelley used the name “Ozymandias” – a Greek mis-transliteration of the first part of Usermaatre Setepenre – the actual throne name of Rameses II. If Shelley had been writing 5 years later, he would have been able to use Champollion’s better translation of the inscription – which (according to Diodorus Siculus [1st century BCE]) said

    ‘I am Osymandyas, king of kings; if any would know how great I am, and where I lie, let him excel me in any of my works.’

    In 2017 the Egyptian authorities found an actual statue of Rameses II – I haven’t kept up with the news, but the actual process of extracting the whole thing would probably not be finished by now… it may well be that we will be able to see the actual hieroglyphic inscription once the base is gotten out of its ~2-millennia-old grave.

    Anyway… point is, Usermaatre Setepenre ruled an Egypt at more or less its peak, 100 years before the LBAC; 200 years after the LBAC, Egypt was a shadow of its former self and most of the other Empires of the time didn’t recognisably exist.

    That fact alone makes the LBAC the most interesting ‘inflection point’ in world history.

    So although the stuff under discussion is interesting, it’s not remotely surprising that there was widespread exchange of genotypes at around the same time, or that it continued (albeit with decent chunks of time intervening) by the time the Italian peninsula got its Empire on.

    • Thanks: Yahya
  83. “Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.“

    More like the Italian peasants had removed by force the remaining Roman (cosmopolitan) citizens. That seems to be the more preferred method.

  84. @Anonymous
    Lucky for Europe, the people who prevailed were the Germanics, a more pure-blooded European people. And it's a good thing they smashed the Roman Empire as the it might have brought in more non-Europeans who might have taken over. But the Germanics, due to geographical proximity and fighting spirit, gained the upper-hand among all the non-Romans with a stake in the system.
    They preserved Europe with barbarian vitality and glory.

    Some say Europe would have achieved more if the Roman empire had survived, but look at Byzantine. It survived and gradually atrophied into insignificance, whereas the Europe remade by Germanic barbarism led to all sorts of great achievements. Civilization must be infused with barbarian spirit. This spirit can come from without, as with the Germanics, or can be recovered from within. When Anglos spread out into the American wilderness, they reconnected with their barbarian warrior roots and injected vitality into Americanism. They got rid of all that hoity toity fruity stuff.

    Western Rome was left vulnerable as it was relatively neglected in favor of Eastern Rome, which the empire saw as the real prize as it was nearer to the great civilizations of the Near East and North Africa. In contrast, Western Rome was connected to the barbarian North, a people the Romans had less respect for(except in robust body and strength).

    When Western Rome fell, it seemed the empire was vindicated. Its future greatness was with Eastern Rome and its relations with other great civilizations. It could afford to lose Western Rome to a bunch of barbarians from the North.

    But what an irony of history that Germanic Barbarian takeover of Rome would lay the seeds for European revival and greatness whereas Eastern Rome's connections with other civilizations led to stagnation and inertia, ultra-conservatism, orthodoxy, and politics as nothing but series of court intrigue. Also, the East did far less with classical culture(despite possessing its knowledge) than the West even though the barbarians smashed so much of it.

    What can save Europe? Neo-barbarianism. White warriors in fighting mode acting like Vikings of Old and kicking butt all over. Blood blood everywhere and not a drop to mourn.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @kaganovitch, @Malla

    “What can save Europe? Neo-barbarianism. White warriors in fighting mode acting like Vikings of Old and kicking butt all over. Blood blood everywhere and not a drop to mourn.“

    So, would Mr. Sailer agree with your call to arms? Maybe. Furthermore, your violent rhetoric, is that cosplay on your part, or are you planning to imitate the Buffalo man?

  85. What about that “In hoc to the world” part, Steve? The Roman governments could shave the edges off of their real money, but I don’t think issuing Treasury bonds based on made-up money to borrow large sums from the rest of the world was possible back then.

    See, America has a big advantage over ancient Rome in being able to do the “In hoc to the world” part in addition. I see no downsides, no, not a one. Yeah, I do think the new 5 and 10 stores will sell items for 5 and 10 bucks in the very near future. but that’s got squat all to do with creating money out of thin air.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Achmed E. Newman


    but that’s got squat all to do with creating money out of thin air.
     
    Roman Emperors were no slouches at creating money from nothing.

    https://www.cointalk.com/attachments/roman-debasement-png.1204017/

    https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/silver-commodity-money/roman-currency-debasement-silver-content%E2%80%93denarius.png

    Silver content was remarkably stable during the Republic but became correlated with political violence during the Empire.

    https://i0.wp.com/money.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/roman-debasement-share.jpg

    Whatever you do, please don't draw any comparisons with the Federal Reserve. It is run by Experts who Know What They Are Doing!

    https://i.postimg.cc/T294W1KR/Roman-US-Currency.jpg

    Replies: @Twinkie

  86. @TG
    @dearieme

    I respectfully disagree.

    There are two kinds of societies. In a first world society, people are careful not to have more children than they can REASONABLY support - however small or large that number. Essentially all prosperous societies are like this.

    In a third-world society, people have the physical maximum of children regardless of circumstance. This creates great poverty, and eventually population stabilizes because of chronic malnutrition. This has already happened in India and Pakistan, where food production per capita is at a low level of minimal subsistence and chronic malnutrition is as bad as it's ever been. This is hardly a case of people dying out for lack of breeding.

    When the rich of a first-world society import surplus population from a third world society, this drives down living standards and the first-worlders respond by limiting their fertility rate.

    It is a blame-the-victim slander to say that we have to import third world refugees because our our population refuses to breed - without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher. It just would not be high enough to create poverty and drive wages down, which is the whole point.

    Saying that first-worlders should respond to invasion by third-worlders, by also breeding to the physical maximum, so that the rich won't need to import third-worlders in order to drive labor costs down, is like saying that you should commit suicide to avoid the prospect of being murdered (apologies to Bismarck).

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Rob, @kaganovitch, @YetAnotherAnon

    Agreed completely, TG, but both you and Charon seem to think Dearieme was implying that we’d have to outbreed the world. He was by no means implying that. He just noted what’s been happening.

  87. OT — HAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAHA
    also “Anti-Racist Baby?” What?

  88. Rob says:
    @TG
    @dearieme

    I respectfully disagree.

    There are two kinds of societies. In a first world society, people are careful not to have more children than they can REASONABLY support - however small or large that number. Essentially all prosperous societies are like this.

    In a third-world society, people have the physical maximum of children regardless of circumstance. This creates great poverty, and eventually population stabilizes because of chronic malnutrition. This has already happened in India and Pakistan, where food production per capita is at a low level of minimal subsistence and chronic malnutrition is as bad as it's ever been. This is hardly a case of people dying out for lack of breeding.

    When the rich of a first-world society import surplus population from a third world society, this drives down living standards and the first-worlders respond by limiting their fertility rate.

    It is a blame-the-victim slander to say that we have to import third world refugees because our our population refuses to breed - without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher. It just would not be high enough to create poverty and drive wages down, which is the whole point.

    Saying that first-worlders should respond to invasion by third-worlders, by also breeding to the physical maximum, so that the rich won't need to import third-worlders in order to drive labor costs down, is like saying that you should commit suicide to avoid the prospect of being murdered (apologies to Bismarck).

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Rob, @kaganovitch, @YetAnotherAnon

    Fantastic comment. I could not decide whether to • Thanks • Agree. I would have happily used two of my three daily reactions.

    My mental model of heritable differences (both within and between populations) is that we have different transfer functions. A transfer function describes the output of a system, often an electronic circuit, for different inputs. Take sending music through a speaker. If you add a low pass filter it will remove high frequencies from an input signal. A high pass does the opposite. A song played through speakers with different filters can be very different.

    A transfer function can be found for a circuit you understand, but it can also be a ‘black box’ with insides that you don’t understand at all. Take “tiger parenting,” it works on Asian kids, but if you tried it with black kids? If you tell an Asian boy to sit in a quiet room and grind through math problems for three hours, the out will be pages and pages of problems solved. A black boy would likely have drawn doodles all over the paper, and then spent 2 hours working on his “beats,” because he’s an aspiring rapper.

    Seriously, it used to be well-known that different children have different “natures.” Some kids are cooperative, and some are hellions. Some are naturally kind to animals, but others are drawn toward torturing them. The input of a cat and a string in a small room with a kid for an hour could be a cat whose tired from having chased a string for an hour. With a different boy, the output might be an asphyxiated cat.

    This mental model of HBD/sociology/people accounts for things like a tendency to blog in one’s free time might have a narrow-sense heritability of 0.6, yet no one’s great grandparents were bloggers. A change in the environment changes people, but it does not change all people in the same ways. Of course, the changed environment can change the selection pressures, so eventually, the population adapts in various directions.

    [MORE]

    This is relevant to your comment thusly: how many children people have in various situations is probably affected a lot by genes. In Rome, slaves had a TFR less than the 2.whatever it takes to maintain a steady population. In North America, slaves in the South had a really high TFR. The black population grew on its own. That’s really unusual for slavery. Why would white Roman slaves die off, but black African slaves still had kids even though conditions were fairly poor? Because Africans in malarial regions had a big chunk of their kids die from sickle cell in addition to malaria, and all the viral, protozoan, helminth, and I’m sure I’m missing some categories. Blacks will have kids in much poorer material, economic, cultural, etc circumstances than whites will. If they weren’t, they’d have died out in slavery and probably not been imported into the country in the first place.

    Somewhat paradoxically, as most anyone’s material circumstances improve on paper, birth rates go down. I saw something that may or may not be true, that a Russian oligarch was going to pay something like 100 women to have his kids. But that’s one really rich guy. They “should” all be doing that and similar things. Heck, buy high-quality eggs, fertilize them with his sperm in vitro, then hire surrogates to carry the babies to term, and then put the kids up for adoption! I don’t think there’s a law against it. There are a ton of couples who’d love to adopt healthy white babies with great genes. Those gay couples wouldn’t have to settle for mongoloid black kids or unwanted Romanian gypsy babies. They could have the mother’s Ivy league-quality genes and a brilliant billionaire’s on the father’s side.

    The material prosperity of the West, including all the empty calories, combined with precarious economic circumstances for a huge fraction of the population, plus birth control, and I think under-appreciated, constant exposure to (somewhat fantasy) lives and lifestyles of beautiful people. Women and girls like to describe their boyfriends and prospects as looking like whichever movie star. Guys do too. For people (more and more every day) who don’t look like movie stars? Prospects are slim (though they (ok, we) are not).

    The people having kids are not the best adapted to the economy, they are often the best adapted to the very easy (in terms of intelligence and maybe physical ability) ecological niches modern society has.

    What’s the line from Taxi Driver, ah thank you internet, “ Someday a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets.” I’ll be swept away with the scum, but the debt will catch up with the US, and society will have to pay for all of the (welfare in all but name) programs from taxes. The accountants will say, “Mr. Investor, your kids or grandkids will have to pay for these people who are reproducing at x%/year. If the problem were half the size in the next generation, then it would be half as expensive. Plus, think of the lower greenhouse gas emissions from a smaller population.” This logic can be extended to a quarter of the size, then an eighth… Perhaps they’ll use some verbal Jiu Jutsu. The one-child policy made the extremely poor Chinese into a first-world, developed country. We want that for all the poor ghetto children.”

  89. @Reg Cæsar
    @dearieme

    Charon is just sore that you demoted his big brother to a dwarf.



    https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/system/resources/detail_files/697_nh-pluto-charon-v2-10-1-15_1600.jpg

    Replies: @Stan Adams

    I always liked the description of Pluto in the old Information Please almanac: “Appropriately named for the Roman god of the underworld, it must be frozen, dark, and dead.”

  90. @Hypnotoad666
    @J.Ross


    Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.
     
    Agreed. Apparently the Fed was aghast at the precedent of stealing Russia's foreign reserves. And "Sanctions" now seems to include literal piracy as they grab yachts from Russian citizens. So much for the "rules based world order."

    You'll never hear about it in our corrupt press but all this has left a very unfavorable impression in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @epebble, @Catdompanj, @Peter Akuleyev

    Yet the American media went apoplectic over tariffs on China.

  91. @Mitleser
    @Twinkie

    "Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement ... even the Saxon conquest of Britain."

    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.


    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon — that is, DNA segments more similar to the Germans than the Welsh. Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons. These researchers actually found DNA from Dark Age-era graves identified as Anglo-Saxon, and some of these individuals were far more like the Germans in their DNA than the modern English; they differed from earlier Iron Age samples, proving beyond a doubt that a significant number of Germans did cross the North Sea in the 6th century.

    Where does this leave us in relation to the question of whether the transformation of Dark Age Britain to early medieval England was one of genes or memes? The clear answer seems to be both. The emergence of a new style of farming, pottery and the collapse of urban Roman civilization and Christianity in eastern Britain was not simply due to the prestige and power of a small number of German warlords. Whole villages must have transplanted themselves across the North Sea, creating the nucleus of a new people, and absorbed the remaining British Celts. The lack of Celtic loanwords and the adoption of Saxon peasant culture may indicate the self-confidence of the newcomers. If St. Gildas is correct, the British elites moved to the west of the island, leaving the common people to their own devices.

    But though the southern and eastern fringe of England has a substantial Anglo-Saxon demographic imprint, that fades out as one moves to the west, including to the lands that once comprised the kingdom of Wessex. There is far less German genetic influence in Hampshire, Berkshire or Wiltshire, let alone Devon. We know from early medieval records that Celtic language speakers did exist as late as the 8th century in these domains (and much later in Devon) but by then Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language, was dominant.
     
    https://unherd.com/2020/08/who-do-the-english-think-they-are/

    Replies: @dearieme, @obwandiyag, @Prester John, @S. Anonyia, @Twinkie

    Some recent theories suggests Germanic tribes like the Belgae had already established themselves in Eastern England as contemporaries of the Celts, long before the Anglo-Saxon invasions around 500 A.D.

  92. @Muggles
    @War for Blair Mountain

    I watched last night and I don't think he said what you claim.

    By all means, attack the only person on televised news who isn't a Woke puppet or Narrative Bringer.

    He has the highest ratings of any cable new program on any network. To most, that is good news.

    You on the other hand want to disparage anyone who doesn't parrot whatever your beliefs are.

    I'm sure your long suffering cat doesn't give a shit either...

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Alden

    I don’t even have TV and cable, just the internet and every streaming service. There’s a big difference between being a pro White advocate and conservatism.

    Conservatism has absolutely and totally failed White for the last 70 years. School desegregation and even worse bussing, black on White crime that drove us out of the cities, affirmative action, unlimited non White immigration, the endless preaching of hatred against Whites in the great and powerful foundations Tides, Woods, Ford*that should be banned, academia even kindergarten, media, the biggest cooperations, and most of all government.

    Conservatism has done absolutely nothing to turn the vicious anti White tide. The only successful White men are the transsexuals. They’re the new media academic corporate even church pets.

    White Nationalists tend to be idiots like the Buffalo supermarket kid and Dylan Roofe. At least Tim McVeigh attacked the real enemy, a government building instead of ordinary people.

    Tucker is fine in that he’s one of the few TV commentators that’s not a screaming hater of Whites. So we’ll have to be satisfied with that. If you’re a conservative.

    There’s no viable White Nationalism to join.

    * The Mellon Foundation which began as a conservative foundation just hired militantly anti White a black woman to head up a 240 million project. The project is rethinking monuments. Her first project is the Confederate monument Stone Mountain. I’m sure she plans to destroy every monument to a White man in America, change the names of the schools colleges and towns. Even east coast towns named Lincoln for the town in England, not Abraham Lincoln.

    In general, Whites are a suicidal useless idiot race; bent on destroying themselves. It’s as much as a death cult as the Aztecs who sacrificed hundreds of teens just entering their productive years at a time.

    There’s nothing we can do about as a group. Any attempt to organize will be filled with informers from numerous government agencies. Like those men who were entrapped by the FBI to kidnap the Governor of Michigan.

    Husband and I realized what was going on very young. He had to deal with Nixon’s Philadelphia Plan designed to destroy every construction company that hires White workers. And ban White man from the industry that was very well paid when both the owners and workers were White men. I had to deal not just with affirmative action; but the thousands of federally funded red diaper babies that swarmed into every city hall and county building in the cities.

    So we made our plans and have preserved an entire clan of successful prosperous blue eyed blondy browny white skinned clan.

    Don’t grovel for a job from the capitalist pigs who forced the government to create and enforce affirmative action. Lie cheat and steal avoid taxes as much as possible. Everybody else does. Why shouldn’t Whites?????? Change your race the way English Catholics in the 1500s changed their religion to Anglican. Some were fervent Old Testament Protestants. But most did it to survive.

    Check the black box. When your kids start kindergarten check the black box. Or change your surname to a Spanish name. Adopt the business ethics of Asian Persian Armenian Indian Russian and Israeli immigrants.

    Our Christian European heritage of honesty and fair dealing is useless for our survival.

    Start a business and get black and Hispanic front men. Then get every affirmative action contract. Not just from government but from all the anti White big businesses.

    Depending on where you live real estate is the best investment. You can rent to the immigrant hordes for their crooked businesses or residents.

    Every organization in America including the churches is against us. Remember that.

    In conclusion, Blair Mountain is right. People like Tucker aren’t anti White. But he isn’t pro White either. Just another conservative.

  93. @jamie b.

    Ancient DNA from bodies dug up in Rome showed that the capital city was highly cosmopolitan in Imperial times, but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides.
     
    Urban areas might act as demographic sink-holes...

    https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2019/11/09/city-air-makes-you-less-fecund/

    Replies: @Catdompanj, @Reg Cæsar

    Like Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, LA etc?

  94. @Alden
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Venice was not founded by Romans who traveled 300 miles North east to live in an uninhabited swamp. North was where most of the invaders came from. It was founded by a combination of the indigenous Celts whi’d lived in N East Italy for several thousand years and earlier German Gith invaders who’d settled down.

    They fled east from the invaders until they came to the sea. The invaders left the Venetian swamps alone because there was nothing there to loot.

    Replies: @Catdompanj, @Peter Akuleyev

    True, but they also didn’t follow for the same reasons Whites didn’t chase seminoles or slaves into the Everglades.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Catdompanj

    Except for alligators, what’s the difference between a Florida swamp and a swamp
    on the Adriatic Sea?

  95. @TG
    @dearieme

    I respectfully disagree.

    There are two kinds of societies. In a first world society, people are careful not to have more children than they can REASONABLY support - however small or large that number. Essentially all prosperous societies are like this.

    In a third-world society, people have the physical maximum of children regardless of circumstance. This creates great poverty, and eventually population stabilizes because of chronic malnutrition. This has already happened in India and Pakistan, where food production per capita is at a low level of minimal subsistence and chronic malnutrition is as bad as it's ever been. This is hardly a case of people dying out for lack of breeding.

    When the rich of a first-world society import surplus population from a third world society, this drives down living standards and the first-worlders respond by limiting their fertility rate.

    It is a blame-the-victim slander to say that we have to import third world refugees because our our population refuses to breed - without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher. It just would not be high enough to create poverty and drive wages down, which is the whole point.

    Saying that first-worlders should respond to invasion by third-worlders, by also breeding to the physical maximum, so that the rich won't need to import third-worlders in order to drive labor costs down, is like saying that you should commit suicide to avoid the prospect of being murdered (apologies to Bismarck).

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Rob, @kaganovitch, @YetAnotherAnon

    without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher.

    I’m generally sympathetic to this point of view but it should be noted that Japan, who did not import a third world population, nevertheless saw a drastic, perhaps suicidal, drop in fertility. There is something rotten at the heart of our era, some loss of cultural self-assurance, that is undermining the foundations of our civilization.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @kaganovitch


    There is something rotten at the heart of our era, some loss of cultural self-assurance, that is undermining the foundations of our civilization.
     
    Ease.
    , @J.Ross
    @kaganovitch

    >Japan lacks cultural self-assurance

    Sort of. Japan suffered a catastrophic military defeat and an imposed feminism program. But apart from that, they're the most culturally self-assured modern nation. Rejecting feminism and similar clever radical notions would probably be enough.

    , @Aidan Kehoe
    @kaganovitch


    “I’m generally sympathetic to this point of view but it should be noted that Japan, who did not import a third world population, nevertheless saw a drastic, perhaps suicidal, drop in fertility.”
     
    I wondered initially if this was linked to access to contraception (the combined oral contraceptive was only legalised there in 1999), but no, TFR of 1.57 in 1989. Which makes intuitive sense, most of the heterosexual sex that doesn't happen, doesn't happen because she’s not interested in him, not because of the chance of getting pregnant.

    This site makes the very iSteve-affordable-family-formation argument that:

    “Even more important than overall employment rates, a large proportion of the young men who are employed today are in temporary jobs, very likely affecting their marriage prospects. And if men's limited and precarious employment opportunities make them poor candidates for marriage, then Japan's fertility is likely to remain very low for some time to come.”
     
    And yes, well, the iSteve argument is usually the right argument.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  96. @Anonymous
    Lucky for Europe, the people who prevailed were the Germanics, a more pure-blooded European people. And it's a good thing they smashed the Roman Empire as the it might have brought in more non-Europeans who might have taken over. But the Germanics, due to geographical proximity and fighting spirit, gained the upper-hand among all the non-Romans with a stake in the system.
    They preserved Europe with barbarian vitality and glory.

    Some say Europe would have achieved more if the Roman empire had survived, but look at Byzantine. It survived and gradually atrophied into insignificance, whereas the Europe remade by Germanic barbarism led to all sorts of great achievements. Civilization must be infused with barbarian spirit. This spirit can come from without, as with the Germanics, or can be recovered from within. When Anglos spread out into the American wilderness, they reconnected with their barbarian warrior roots and injected vitality into Americanism. They got rid of all that hoity toity fruity stuff.

    Western Rome was left vulnerable as it was relatively neglected in favor of Eastern Rome, which the empire saw as the real prize as it was nearer to the great civilizations of the Near East and North Africa. In contrast, Western Rome was connected to the barbarian North, a people the Romans had less respect for(except in robust body and strength).

    When Western Rome fell, it seemed the empire was vindicated. Its future greatness was with Eastern Rome and its relations with other great civilizations. It could afford to lose Western Rome to a bunch of barbarians from the North.

    But what an irony of history that Germanic Barbarian takeover of Rome would lay the seeds for European revival and greatness whereas Eastern Rome's connections with other civilizations led to stagnation and inertia, ultra-conservatism, orthodoxy, and politics as nothing but series of court intrigue. Also, the East did far less with classical culture(despite possessing its knowledge) than the West even though the barbarians smashed so much of it.

    What can save Europe? Neo-barbarianism. White warriors in fighting mode acting like Vikings of Old and kicking butt all over. Blood blood everywhere and not a drop to mourn.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @kaganovitch, @Malla

    What can save Europe? Neo-barbarianism. White warriors in fighting mode acting like Vikings of Old and kicking butt all over. Blood blood everywhere and not a drop to mourn.

    Rather than wait for emasculated Vikings to rediscover their barbarian roots, alternatively they can import actual present day barbarians from Afghanistan or Chechnya. Doubtless that will work out splendidly as the Norsemen are discovering to their great joy.

  97. Anon[678] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hypnotoad666
    @dearieme


    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.
     
    People also forget that cosmopolitan cities were breeding grounds of disease with substantially lower life expectancy than the surrounding countryside. The Romans were good with sanitation and water projects. But Rome at its height must still have been the greatest imperial petri dish of all time.

    So disease is another reason that dense urban populations might not leave as much genetic ancestry behind as you'd otherwise expect.

    Replies: @Alden, @Anon

    That’s very much true. I have compared my father’s city-dwelling ancestors versus my mother’s country-dwelling ancestors in the course of doing genealogy, and I have a boatload of city ancestors and collateral relatives who have died of tuberculosis. Reading death certificates is very enlightening about how healthy city life actually is.

    I’ve been able to trace tuberculosis all the way through the entire 19th century on my Dad’s side of the family, and a suspiciously large amount of his relatives died in early adulthood in the 18th century, so tuberculosis probably goes back much further than that.

    My country ancestors, by contrast, are as healthy as horses. I’ve also backed this up with DNA testing. My mother has at least 15 times or more the number of relatives than my father does just among those have had their DNA tested. She has so many they could populate a city. This is despite the fact that I come from old American families on both sides with lot of founders from the 1600s. Though having the same starting point, my mother’s country relatives are winning the Darwinian war, and my father’s city relatives are losing. My father’s side of the family was/is more educated and wealthier then my mother’s, yet none of that has helped them one whit. Immune system is everything.

    Another important point is that the demographic shift towards smaller families occurred in cities earlier than in the country. Children in the country can help you farm, but in the city, they’re just a burden that brings in no cash. My father’s side of the family was limiting their family size in the 1800s while my mother’s was still having 10 kids per family, and in just a few generations, that really adds up.

  98. @Catdompanj
    @Alden

    True, but they also didn't follow for the same reasons Whites didn't chase seminoles or slaves into the Everglades.

    Replies: @Alden

    Except for alligators, what’s the difference between a Florida swamp and a swamp
    on the Adriatic Sea?

  99. @Hypnotoad666
    Off-Topic: Even if you are one of the folks who think Russia is evil and Ukraine is actually kicking so much ass on the battlefield that they are getting tired of winning, you still have to marvel at the hilarious dishonesty of our propaganda media. To wit: "Nazis hiding in a basement finally surrender" gets translated as "freedom fighters are evacuated" (to Russian POW camps).

    Below the fold is the Moon of Alabama post that sums it up. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-for-laughs.html#more



    'Western' media are nothing but Zelenski regime megaphones.

    Liveuamap @Liveuamap - 21:30 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Zelensky confirms Azovstal troops evacuation: «Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive. This has been our principle»
    https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-may... via @myroslavapetsa
    ---
    The New York Times @nytimes - 22:59 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Breaking News: Ukraine ended its “combat mission” in Mariupol and said fighters were being evacuated, signaling that the battle at a steel plant was over.
    link
    ---
    CNN International @cnni - 23:39 UTC · May 16, 2022
    Ukrainian forces say they have ended their "combat mission" in besieged Mariupol, as hundreds are evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant. https://cnn.it/3FQALcV
    ---
    Reuters @Reuters - 3:35 AM · May 17, 2022
    Ukraine's military said it was working to evacuate all remaining troops from their last stronghold in the besieged port of Mariupol, ceding control of the city to Russia after months of bombardment https://reut.rs/3wlYbUG
    From the false headline down the Washington Post report on the issue is a master piece of propaganda:

    Ukraine ends bloody battle for Mariupol, evacuates Azovstal fighters

    Ukrainian fighters have ended their weeks-long defense of a besieged steel plant in the strategic port city of Mariupol, as hundreds of combatants — dozens of them seriously wounded — were evacuated from the complex Monday.
    One has to read beyond 323 words of falsehood to find out, down in paragraph 7, what really has happened.

    Moscow hasn’t yet publicly responded to the developments in Mariupol, which were described by Russian state media as an order from Ukrainian military command for its troops to “surrender.”
    Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, said 53 seriously wounded soldiers were taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk, a nearby town which is controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Another 211 were transported to another Russian-aligned village, Olenivka, she said. Moscow and Kyiv are brokering a prisoner swap to secure their release.

    Malyar said officials were still working to rescue the remaining soldiers, though it is unclear how many are still inside. Ukrainian authorities said last week there were nearly 1,000 holdout fighters in the plant.

    The f***ers finally gave up and surrendered unconditionally to the Russian forces as their only alternative was to decease within the next hours or days.

    I am sure that the Russian authorities will apply a fine filter to determine who of those prisoners of war are allegeable for war crime prosecutions, de-nazification and a long stay in some north Siberian road builder camp.

    There are also rumors of NATO personnel presence in the Azovstal catacombs. They will likely get to know the cellars of the famous Lubyanka building in Moscow before being exchanged in this or that deal with their home countries.

    The rest will eventually be exchanged for Russian soldiers who are unfortunately held by the Ukrainian military. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-for-laughs.html#more
     

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Alden

    I just skimmed through the April 29 to May 2 issue of Time Magazine. A huge warmongering article praising Ukraine to the skies and down in Russia. Like the British newspapers must have been about evil Germany saintly martyr Russia during WW2. Vomit inducing propaganda.

    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    @Alden

    British newspaper coverage of World War II was relatively sober and straightforward. Part of the reason for this is that the government instituted strict rationing of newsprint, so there was literally no room on the front page for sensational banner headlines.

    For comparison, the front pages of the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail from 1941-06-23 and 2022-02-25, covering the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union and the Russian invasion of Ukraine:



    https://i33.servimg.com/u/f33/18/88/87/60/tgrh-110.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMZOyyeXoAgWCx6.jpg

    https://i33.servimg.com/u/f33/18/88/87/60/dmha-110.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMZSuvKXwAMozeu.jpg

  100. @jamie b.

    Ancient DNA from bodies dug up in Rome showed that the capital city was highly cosmopolitan in Imperial times, but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides.
     
    Urban areas might act as demographic sink-holes...

    https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2019/11/09/city-air-makes-you-less-fecund/

    Replies: @Catdompanj, @Reg Cæsar

    Urban areas might act as demographic sink-holes.

    That’s been known for ages. But cities have always replenished themselves from the provinces.

    However, the fecundity of the latter isn’t what it used to be. Instead of eight kids, Farmer Jones has two, and hires three Mexicans.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Reg Cæsar

    Farmer jones hires 3 Mexicans. They each have 2 or 3 kids. Because of their Spanish surnames, the kids are hired for every affirmative action government and school district job in the county.

    Those 4-6 Spanish surname kids have their own kids. Who become Affirmative Action county supervisors mayors school principals teachers police chiefs not deputy sheriffs but the Sheriff state assembly and congress critters. And building health and safety fire department inspectors take over the DMV most of the jobs in the county building and the small town small city halls.

    That’s what’s happened in California.

    White Employers are importing the non Whites who are destroying their own children’s and grandchildren’s future.

    Replies: @Anonymous

  101. @TG
    @War for Blair Mountain

    Cheap labor.

    Replies: @Oswald Spengler, @Reg Cæsar

    Cheap labor.

    Cheap human labor. Machine and animal labor is also cheap, but with less downside.

  102. @kaganovitch
    @TG

    without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher.

    I'm generally sympathetic to this point of view but it should be noted that Japan, who did not import a third world population, nevertheless saw a drastic, perhaps suicidal, drop in fertility. There is something rotten at the heart of our era, some loss of cultural self-assurance, that is undermining the foundations of our civilization.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @J.Ross, @Aidan Kehoe

    There is something rotten at the heart of our era, some loss of cultural self-assurance, that is undermining the foundations of our civilization.

    Ease.

  103. @James of Africa
    The peasants win by patience it would seem. Elites impressively burn out I would have hoped. How many people in the ex-Soviet Union are descendants of Kulaks, despite the best efforts of the Stalinists? I like the theory that people came from Africa, to me it suggests that it took a lot of hard work to become white! My people of course ended up back where we started then..

    Replies: @Malla

    I like the theory that people came from Africa, to me it suggests that it took a lot of hard work to become white!

    The people who left Africa were not people related to today’s Black Africans, who were a different branch in Africa (had not look like black Africans yet who are comparatively a very recent evolution). Check out the Hofmeyr Skull found in South Africa which was more similar to UP Europeans than Khoi-San and Bantu who arrived in the region much later.

  104. @Anonymous
    Lucky for Europe, the people who prevailed were the Germanics, a more pure-blooded European people. And it's a good thing they smashed the Roman Empire as the it might have brought in more non-Europeans who might have taken over. But the Germanics, due to geographical proximity and fighting spirit, gained the upper-hand among all the non-Romans with a stake in the system.
    They preserved Europe with barbarian vitality and glory.

    Some say Europe would have achieved more if the Roman empire had survived, but look at Byzantine. It survived and gradually atrophied into insignificance, whereas the Europe remade by Germanic barbarism led to all sorts of great achievements. Civilization must be infused with barbarian spirit. This spirit can come from without, as with the Germanics, or can be recovered from within. When Anglos spread out into the American wilderness, they reconnected with their barbarian warrior roots and injected vitality into Americanism. They got rid of all that hoity toity fruity stuff.

    Western Rome was left vulnerable as it was relatively neglected in favor of Eastern Rome, which the empire saw as the real prize as it was nearer to the great civilizations of the Near East and North Africa. In contrast, Western Rome was connected to the barbarian North, a people the Romans had less respect for(except in robust body and strength).

    When Western Rome fell, it seemed the empire was vindicated. Its future greatness was with Eastern Rome and its relations with other great civilizations. It could afford to lose Western Rome to a bunch of barbarians from the North.

    But what an irony of history that Germanic Barbarian takeover of Rome would lay the seeds for European revival and greatness whereas Eastern Rome's connections with other civilizations led to stagnation and inertia, ultra-conservatism, orthodoxy, and politics as nothing but series of court intrigue. Also, the East did far less with classical culture(despite possessing its knowledge) than the West even though the barbarians smashed so much of it.

    What can save Europe? Neo-barbarianism. White warriors in fighting mode acting like Vikings of Old and kicking butt all over. Blood blood everywhere and not a drop to mourn.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @kaganovitch, @Malla

    whereas the Europe remade by Germanic barbarism led to all sorts of great achievements. Civilization must be infused with barbarian spirit.

    High IQ barbarians.

  105. @kaganovitch
    @TG

    without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher.

    I'm generally sympathetic to this point of view but it should be noted that Japan, who did not import a third world population, nevertheless saw a drastic, perhaps suicidal, drop in fertility. There is something rotten at the heart of our era, some loss of cultural self-assurance, that is undermining the foundations of our civilization.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @J.Ross, @Aidan Kehoe

    >Japan lacks cultural self-assurance

    Sort of. Japan suffered a catastrophic military defeat and an imposed feminism program. But apart from that, they’re the most culturally self-assured modern nation. Rejecting feminism and similar clever radical notions would probably be enough.

  106. @Reg Cæsar
    @jamie b.


    Urban areas might act as demographic sink-holes.
     
    That's been known for ages. But cities have always replenished themselves from the provinces.

    However, the fecundity of the latter isn't what it used to be. Instead of eight kids, Farmer Jones has two, and hires three Mexicans.

    Replies: @Alden

    Farmer jones hires 3 Mexicans. They each have 2 or 3 kids. Because of their Spanish surnames, the kids are hired for every affirmative action government and school district job in the county.

    Those 4-6 Spanish surname kids have their own kids. Who become Affirmative Action county supervisors mayors school principals teachers police chiefs not deputy sheriffs but the Sheriff state assembly and congress critters. And building health and safety fire department inspectors take over the DMV most of the jobs in the county building and the small town small city halls.

    That’s what’s happened in California.

    White Employers are importing the non Whites who are destroying their own children’s and grandchildren’s future.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Alden


    White Employers are importing the non Whites who are destroying their own children’s and grandchildren’s future.
     
    I've seen them destroy their own children directly.
  107. Who were the “cosmopolitan elites” in Rome? What ethnicities?

    And can we get a firmer handle on what region and time period was the “Dark Ages”? It wasn’t all of Western Europe. And from what I can tell it didn’t last centuries. I’m talking about the actual conditions being brutal, not how much we know of the period later on.

    So, which regions of Western Europe went sideways and for how long?

  108. @Peter Akuleyev
    Venice was founded by Roman cosmopolitan urbanites fleeing the Germanic hordes - but mostly from Aquileia - a once major Roman city with over 100,000 inhabitants that is now a small town.

    Some of the Roman upper class moved to Constantinople.

    An interesting question is how much of the Roman upper class was siphoned off by the Church?

    Replies: @Alec Leamas (working from home), @Alden, @Alden

    Maybe the Roman church became so powerful was because it was run by descendants of the old Roman upper class? There’s a theory that the the whole pagan Roman clergy converted and established the official Christian Church. Like in the reformation. And why not? It’s the same job. And no nasty messy sacrificing of animals and chickens.

  109. @Mitleser
    @Twinkie

    "Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement ... even the Saxon conquest of Britain."

    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.


    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon — that is, DNA segments more similar to the Germans than the Welsh. Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons. These researchers actually found DNA from Dark Age-era graves identified as Anglo-Saxon, and some of these individuals were far more like the Germans in their DNA than the modern English; they differed from earlier Iron Age samples, proving beyond a doubt that a significant number of Germans did cross the North Sea in the 6th century.

    Where does this leave us in relation to the question of whether the transformation of Dark Age Britain to early medieval England was one of genes or memes? The clear answer seems to be both. The emergence of a new style of farming, pottery and the collapse of urban Roman civilization and Christianity in eastern Britain was not simply due to the prestige and power of a small number of German warlords. Whole villages must have transplanted themselves across the North Sea, creating the nucleus of a new people, and absorbed the remaining British Celts. The lack of Celtic loanwords and the adoption of Saxon peasant culture may indicate the self-confidence of the newcomers. If St. Gildas is correct, the British elites moved to the west of the island, leaving the common people to their own devices.

    But though the southern and eastern fringe of England has a substantial Anglo-Saxon demographic imprint, that fades out as one moves to the west, including to the lands that once comprised the kingdom of Wessex. There is far less German genetic influence in Hampshire, Berkshire or Wiltshire, let alone Devon. We know from early medieval records that Celtic language speakers did exist as late as the 8th century in these domains (and much later in Devon) but by then Old English, which is for all purposes a purely Germanic language, was dominant.
     
    https://unherd.com/2020/08/who-do-the-english-think-they-are/

    Replies: @dearieme, @obwandiyag, @Prester John, @S. Anonyia, @Twinkie

    That is only partially true. The Anglo‐Saxification of eastern Britain was also a story of colonization of the region by new people.

    It’s not “partially true.” It’s actually true. Of course, there was some colonization activity on the eastern and southern coastal areas by Angles, Saxons, and Jutes, but consider the following you posted (which I read already in the past):

    They estimated that 10-40% of the ancestry in central and southern England was Anglo-Saxon

    This means that, even in the areas of the greatest Anglo-Saxon (and Jutish) predations and colonization, the local substrate ancestry survived and comprise 60-90% of the current “English” population.

    Another paper from 2016, utilising ancient as well as contemporary DNA, estimated that 38% of the ancestry in the “East English” — people from East Anglia and the East Midlands — is derived from the Anglo-Saxons.

    In other words, even in the very center of what was once the Saxon Shore, 62% of the “English” is Brythonic/pre-Anglo-Saxon in ancestry.

    Now, when you consider that the Anglo-Saxon elites likely out-produced heirs than the substrate population (though perhaps later out-produced still by the Normans), that means that the fraction of the Anglo-Saxons among the Brythonic population at the time of the arrival of the former was likely smaller still.

    This is quite consistent with my contention (and that of more modern historians) that, indeed, the traditional historiography of the Anglo-Saxons killing, replacing, and displacing the Brythonic peoples (except in Wales, Cornwall, and Scotland) is, in fact, incorrect and that the substrate population largely survived intact while the elites were replaced.

  110. @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie



    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).
     
    Modern Western elites tend to be cosmopolitan, but "cosmopolitan" and "elite" may not always be synonyms for ancient Rome, much less for the Dark Ages.

    The Norman keep that dominated English settlements after 1066 was typically outside of and physically above (in elevation) the population it was dominating. And of course most of these settlements were at best just agricultural trade centers, since industry had mostly disappeared with the Roman Empire.

    Even in "cosmopolitan" Rome of the Imperial Era, while the elite maintained hillcrest villas for themselves in Rome, their true home and base was usually on their rural latifundia. Mark Antony's assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum.

    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.

    Historically, the elites dominating a country usually had some kind of countryside base, be it the steppe for the Mongol Khans in China, the orchards and forests for Norman Lords in England, or the grain and olive estates for Roman Senators.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have "country houses" too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network. It is peculiar then how much more hostile than the historical elites are the modern elites to the continued existence of techno-industrial civilization...

    Replies: @LP5, @Cortes, @nebulafox, @Twinkie, @animalogic

    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.

    A very good point.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have “country houses” too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network.

    Also a very good point. But a point of contention here would be the definition of “elites.” You might be surprised that actual elites (not just the upper middle class or lower upper class aspirants) actually own a lot of land, farmland in particular. Bill Gates, for example, is now reputedly the largest private farmland owner (something like 242,000 acres) in the United States.

    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    @Twinkie

    I have heard that, but I have also read that John Malone, uber cable TV baron was the country's largest landowner ( 2.2 million acres ) by the way, he is also a billionaire.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    , @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie


    Bill Gates, for example, is now reputedly the largest private farmland owner (something like 242,000 acres) in the United States.
     
    Yes, I'm aware our elites' recent farmland fetish. In distinction to traditional elites with their base in the countryside though, how many of Bill Gates's 242,000 acres do you think he has personally been to?

    I'd hazard a first order estimate of zero. It would surprise me if his awareness of all this farmland consists of more than one of his investment advisors mentioning that "we've diversified your portfolio into ag".

    In further distinction to traditional elites, how many troops, levies, housecarls, knights, thanes, orda, or vassals could Bill Gates raise from his 242,000 acres?

    Again, my first order estimate is zero.

    In a national collapse scenario, how many of Bill Gates's acres would he be able to hold onto based on his paper ownership?

    Again, first order estimate is zero. The Bundy Effect ain't happening for Bill.

    Replies: @Twinkie

  111. @Prester John
    @Mitleser

    "Wessex" translates roughly to "West Saxon", yet the article suggests that Saxon influence had "faded".
    Does that mean that they were a previously dominant minority who were eventually displaced by Celtic-speakers Welsh? If so, roughly when. It would be interesting to know the chronology here.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    “Wessex” translates roughly to “West Saxon”, yet the article suggests that Saxon influence had “faded”.

    Interesting factoid about the Kingdom of Wessex: although it is often cited as THE major Saxon kingdom whence Alfred the Great initiated the great project of uniting all the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms – indeed, it is often described as the last redoubt of the Saxons when the Danelaw was dominant in Britain – it now appears that the early kings of Wessex were likely Brythonic (from their names). If so, it might very well be that Wessex was a native kingdom where the elites began to mimic the invaders and underwent acculturation in the ways of the latter (much as the Roman elites did in places such as Gaul and Italy), rather than an intrusive kingdom of the invaders.

  112. This is quite consistent with my contention (and that of more modern historians) that, indeed, the traditional historiography of the Anglo-Saxons killing, replacing, and displacing the Brythonic peoples (except in Wales, Cornwall, and Scotland) is, in fact, incorrect and that the substrate population largely survived intact while the elites were replaced.

    That is true, however the language and place names in what is now England were entirely replaced, and the culture largely replaced (though not entirely).

    Welsh is actually derived from an old low-German word meaning “foreigner”. It would be as if the French invaded New England, pushed all the old Yankees into a remote corner of New Hampshire, and then started referring to them as “Etranger” and then the Yankees themselves started referring to themselves as “Etranger”.

    The Anglo-Saxon take-over of Britain may not have been a total replacement, but it was a pretty thorough “Great Replacement”.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Mr. Anon


    The Anglo-Saxon take-over of Britain may not have been a total replacement, but it was a pretty thorough “Great Replacement”.
     
    It was nowhere near a total replacement. The Anglo-Saxon ancestry is still a minority in Britain, even in coastal England. What was replaced, however, was culture, including language, as you mention. That happens often when elites are replaced (though the opposite sometimes occurs, e.g. the Mongols and the Basques).

    As for “Welsh,” it’s a bit more convoluted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_people#Terminology

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  113. @Anon

    Ancient DNA from bodies dug up in Rome showed that the capital city was highly cosmopolitan in Imperial times, but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.
     
    This isn't quite right. Demographically, Imperial Rome was Levantine shifted, while the earlier Roman Republic had been more northern European shifted. The barbarian invasions didn't just collapse Imperial Rome, but also demographically shifted the rural populations of the Italian peninsula, particularly its northern half, in a more northern European direction.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @T.Chris

    Thank you, that was interesting. But how do you know this?

  114. Anonymous[145] • Disclaimer says:
    @dearieme
    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died

    A population can die out without any need to flee or to die in extraordinary numbers. All it needs to do is not have children.

    This is currently happening in much of the world outside Africa.

    Replies: @Charon, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden, @TG, @Anonymous

    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died

    In the spring of 544 the Eastern Roman emperor Justinian I sent his general Belisarius to Italy to counterattack, but Totila captured Rome in 546 from Belisarius and depopulated the city after a yearlong siege. When Totila left to fight the Byzantines in Lucania, south of Naples, Belisarius retook Rome and rebuilt its fortifications.
    After Belisarius retreated to Constantinople in 549, Totila recaptured Rome, going on to complete the reconquest of Italy and Sicily.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Totila

  115. Anonymous[145] • Disclaimer says:
    @Alden
    @Reg Cæsar

    Farmer jones hires 3 Mexicans. They each have 2 or 3 kids. Because of their Spanish surnames, the kids are hired for every affirmative action government and school district job in the county.

    Those 4-6 Spanish surname kids have their own kids. Who become Affirmative Action county supervisors mayors school principals teachers police chiefs not deputy sheriffs but the Sheriff state assembly and congress critters. And building health and safety fire department inspectors take over the DMV most of the jobs in the county building and the small town small city halls.

    That’s what’s happened in California.

    White Employers are importing the non Whites who are destroying their own children’s and grandchildren’s future.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    White Employers are importing the non Whites who are destroying their own children’s and grandchildren’s future.

    I’ve seen them destroy their own children directly.

  116. the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived

    Another thing to keep in mind is that cities are and have been demographic sinks. Even without fleeing or being killed, the Levantine-shifted urban population in Rome would have died out without a persistent resupply from the Levant, which was indeed cut off once the interregional trade collapsed.

  117. @Mr. Anon

    This is quite consistent with my contention (and that of more modern historians) that, indeed, the traditional historiography of the Anglo-Saxons killing, replacing, and displacing the Brythonic peoples (except in Wales, Cornwall, and Scotland) is, in fact, incorrect and that the substrate population largely survived intact while the elites were replaced.
     
    That is true, however the language and place names in what is now England were entirely replaced, and the culture largely replaced (though not entirely).

    Welsh is actually derived from an old low-German word meaning "foreigner". It would be as if the French invaded New England, pushed all the old Yankees into a remote corner of New Hampshire, and then started referring to them as "Etranger" and then the Yankees themselves started referring to themselves as "Etranger".

    The Anglo-Saxon take-over of Britain may not have been a total replacement, but it was a pretty thorough "Great Replacement".

    Replies: @Twinkie

    The Anglo-Saxon take-over of Britain may not have been a total replacement, but it was a pretty thorough “Great Replacement”.

    It was nowhere near a total replacement. The Anglo-Saxon ancestry is still a minority in Britain, even in coastal England. What was replaced, however, was culture, including language, as you mention. That happens often when elites are replaced (though the opposite sometimes occurs, e.g. the Mongols and the Basques).

    As for “Welsh,” it’s a bit more convoluted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_people#Terminology

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Twinkie



    Welsh is actually derived from an old low-German word meaning “foreigner”.
     
    As for “Welsh,” it’s a bit more convoluted:
     
    Welsh is related to Walloon, Valais, Vlach, and the Poles' idiosyncratic name for Italy:



    https://44.media.tumblr.com/6967e8cf4b825c2949fb4fdb8cc6fd4f/tumblr_mzvwfm4CNb1qmmpvxo1_1280.gif



    Welsch is apparently a German-Swiss derogatory term for their fellow citizens who speak a Romance tongue.
  118. @TG
    @dearieme

    I respectfully disagree.

    There are two kinds of societies. In a first world society, people are careful not to have more children than they can REASONABLY support - however small or large that number. Essentially all prosperous societies are like this.

    In a third-world society, people have the physical maximum of children regardless of circumstance. This creates great poverty, and eventually population stabilizes because of chronic malnutrition. This has already happened in India and Pakistan, where food production per capita is at a low level of minimal subsistence and chronic malnutrition is as bad as it's ever been. This is hardly a case of people dying out for lack of breeding.

    When the rich of a first-world society import surplus population from a third world society, this drives down living standards and the first-worlders respond by limiting their fertility rate.

    It is a blame-the-victim slander to say that we have to import third world refugees because our our population refuses to breed - without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher. It just would not be high enough to create poverty and drive wages down, which is the whole point.

    Saying that first-worlders should respond to invasion by third-worlders, by also breeding to the physical maximum, so that the rich won't need to import third-worlders in order to drive labor costs down, is like saying that you should commit suicide to avoid the prospect of being murdered (apologies to Bismarck).

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Rob, @kaganovitch, @YetAnotherAnon

    “Saying that first-worlders should respond to invasion by third-worlders, by also breeding to the physical maximum, so that the rich won’t need to import third-worlders in order to drive labor costs down, is like saying that you should commit suicide to avoid the prospect of being murdered (apologies to Bismarck).”

    OTOH, in a world where intelligent white people are getting fewer (partly because many educated white women are childless), having a bunch (3 or more) of bright kids isn’t committing suicide – far from it.

    It does make me sad though to see bright female friends who were utterly gorgeous in youth ending up childless. Terrible waste of good genes.

  119. @YetAnotherAnon
    @AKAHorace

    "Difficult to kill or displace most people."

    Not so 4,000 years ago, when the R1b guys rode into Europe.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/is-distinctive-dna-marker-proof-of-ancient-genocide-1.1426197

    Replies: @anon, @Anon, @Coemgen

    Not so 4,000 years ago, when the R1b guys rode into Europe.

    The current science, based on DNA samples from Bronze Age Britons, is that the R1b (Indo-European) male haplogroup nearly replaced all of the male haplogroups in Britain within a period of about 300 years.

    That’s some serious demographic replacement.

  120. @Charon
    @dearieme

    You imply that the solution is for non-africans to try and out-reproduce africans. That way lies insanity.

    Matt Yglesias aside, a world with 20 or 30 billion people will most definitely not be a better world than what we have now.

    To your exact point, though: is today's world really so much better than when we had 4 or 5 billion? Are the few ways in which it *is* better contingent upon the doubling of the population?

    Replies: @dearieme, @animalogic

    “a world with 20 or 30 billion people will most definitely not be a better world than what we have now.”
    100% correct. In fact I believe that it would be a world metaphorically on the verge of “the flood”. Doubt whether there’ll be a dove at the end of it either.

  121. @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie



    the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived
     
    Die Völkerwanderung was elite replacement in most parts of the empire (as was the Norman conquest of Saxon England and even the Saxon conquest of Britain).
     
    Modern Western elites tend to be cosmopolitan, but "cosmopolitan" and "elite" may not always be synonyms for ancient Rome, much less for the Dark Ages.

    The Norman keep that dominated English settlements after 1066 was typically outside of and physically above (in elevation) the population it was dominating. And of course most of these settlements were at best just agricultural trade centers, since industry had mostly disappeared with the Roman Empire.

    Even in "cosmopolitan" Rome of the Imperial Era, while the elite maintained hillcrest villas for themselves in Rome, their true home and base was usually on their rural latifundia. Mark Antony's assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum.

    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.

    Historically, the elites dominating a country usually had some kind of countryside base, be it the steppe for the Mongol Khans in China, the orchards and forests for Norman Lords in England, or the grain and olive estates for Roman Senators.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have "country houses" too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network. It is peculiar then how much more hostile than the historical elites are the modern elites to the continued existence of techno-industrial civilization...

    Replies: @LP5, @Cortes, @nebulafox, @Twinkie, @animalogic

    “Mark Antony’s assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum.”
    Cicero was a compulsive collector of mansions/property.
    Whatever agricultural interests he had would have been handled by bailiffs (not sure if that’s the correct title for such managers)

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @animalogic


    Cicero was a compulsive collector of mansions/property.
     
    Yes, mostly in his home region southeast of Rome. And this is where he was born and died. Not in Rome. But we think of him as "Roman" (and not incorrectly as he was a Roman citizen and a Roman Senator). Which was the original point: traditional elites were not urban, they had power bases in the countryside. In distinction to most modern elites.

    Replies: @animalogic

  122. @Alden
    @Peter Akuleyev

    Venice was not founded by Romans who traveled 300 miles North east to live in an uninhabited swamp. North was where most of the invaders came from. It was founded by a combination of the indigenous Celts whi’d lived in N East Italy for several thousand years and earlier German Gith invaders who’d settled down.

    They fled east from the invaders until they came to the sea. The invaders left the Venetian swamps alone because there was nothing there to loot.

    Replies: @Catdompanj, @Peter Akuleyev

    Aquileia is not 300 miles away from Venice. It is just inland. The inhabitants of Aquileia were Roman urbanites in the sense that they were upper class and Roman citizens.

    Venice was not founded by Germans and Celts. The Aquileian founders went to the swamps to escape the Germanic hordes. In many ways Venice was the last true Roman city in Italy and recognized Byzantine authority right up until Byzantium became too weak to take seriously.

  123. @YetAnotherAnon
    @YetAnotherAnon

    WaPo:


    "the unprecedented nature of these measures is producing concerns around the world that the United States has “weaponized” its financial power and could lead, over time, to the decline of the dollar’s dominance, which is what gives America its financial superpowers in the first place.

    I’ve been hearing about this firsthand from three sources I trust. The first, in New Delhi, recently told me about a conversation that took place at the highest levels of India’s government. The topic: how to make sure that the United States could never do to India what it has just done to Russia. The second, from Brussels, where staff at the European Commission has been tasked — even while working with Washington on the sanctions — with finding ways to reduce the role of the dollar in its energy imports. The third, an Asian observer of China, speculated that the overly severe lockdowns in Shanghai — which involved the rationing of food and basic supplies — might be part of an effort by Beijing to experiment with a scenario in which it faced economic sanctions from Washington (perhaps after an invasion of Taiwan).

    A debate is raging around the world about whether the dollar’s total dominance of the international financial system is waning. "
     

    Replies: @epebble

    decline of the dollar’s dominance

    Is exactly what is needed if we ever have to give up our addiction of exporting debt and importing everything. Any freshman undergrad in macroeconomics knows the primary reason other countries undervalue their currency is to build up U.S. dollar reserves by exporting (favoring exporting through subsidies, curbing importing through tariffs). This causes U.S. manufacturers to become uncompetitive in producing in U.S. and are then compelled to move abroad to survive profitably. Once the USD is no longer the reserve, there is no more motive to shift production. This will cause inflation, massively, and our living standards will come down. But we will start making our own clothes, shoes, TVs, cars, knick-knacks in Walmart and Amazon. There won’t 100,000 opioid deaths due to despondency. As a bonus, there won’t be a flood of immigrants from rest of the world too.

  124. @HFR
    @nebulafox

    Ordinarily, I wouldn't say anything about the use of the word decimate, but since you are writing about Rome, I can't resist. You write that "Bubonic plague...decimated the rural population..." Did you mean 10%? That in itself would be quite serious, so perhaps you did. More confusingly, in the next paragraph, you write: "...the republican era...aristocracy was totally decimated..." That sounds more like "annihilated."

    I'm puzzled that decimate is being used so frequently to substitute for such a range of perfectly clear words: destroy, crush, annihilate, demolish, vanquish, et al.

    As you've probably guessed, I'm an editor. I constantly correct (only in my head), newspaper headlines, bus signs, writing on cereal boxes, anything in print. Obviously, for some reason, the use of decimate to mean anything but 1 out of 10 has really gotten under my skin.

    Replies: @rebel yell

    Well, decimate originally meant to kill one in ten. But like many words its meaning has grown over time through metaphorical use. It now is generally used to mean “kill, destroy, or remove a large percentage or part of.”
    The definition of a word is decided by its common useage(s). The historical useage and origin of a word is of secondary importance. As long as your intended audience gets your meaning when you use a word you have used it correctly.

  125. @Alden
    @Hypnotoad666

    I just skimmed through the April 29 to May 2 issue of Time Magazine. A huge warmongering article praising Ukraine to the skies and down in Russia. Like the British newspapers must have been about evil Germany saintly martyr Russia during WW2. Vomit inducing propaganda.

    Replies: @Stan Adams

    British newspaper coverage of World War II was relatively sober and straightforward. Part of the reason for this is that the government instituted strict rationing of newsprint, so there was literally no room on the front page for sensational banner headlines.

    For comparison, the front pages of the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail from 1941-06-23 and 2022-02-25, covering the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union and the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

    [MORE]

    • Thanks: Thea
  126. @kaganovitch
    @TG

    without the importation of all these refugees, the native fertility rate would be higher.

    I'm generally sympathetic to this point of view but it should be noted that Japan, who did not import a third world population, nevertheless saw a drastic, perhaps suicidal, drop in fertility. There is something rotten at the heart of our era, some loss of cultural self-assurance, that is undermining the foundations of our civilization.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @J.Ross, @Aidan Kehoe

    “I’m generally sympathetic to this point of view but it should be noted that Japan, who did not import a third world population, nevertheless saw a drastic, perhaps suicidal, drop in fertility.”

    I wondered initially if this was linked to access to contraception (the combined oral contraceptive was only legalised there in 1999), but no, TFR of 1.57 in 1989. Which makes intuitive sense, most of the heterosexual sex that doesn’t happen, doesn’t happen because she’s not interested in him, not because of the chance of getting pregnant.

    This site makes the very iSteve-affordable-family-formation argument that:

    “Even more important than overall employment rates, a large proportion of the young men who are employed today are in temporary jobs, very likely affecting their marriage prospects. And if men’s limited and precarious employment opportunities make them poor candidates for marriage, then Japan’s fertility is likely to remain very low for some time to come.”

    And yes, well, the iSteve argument is usually the right argument.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Aidan Kehoe


    ...most of the heterosexual sex that doesn’t happen, doesn’t happen because she’s not interested in him, not because of the chance of getting pregnant.
     
    They have a cure for that, too:



    https://coleccionistademomentos.com/images/manga/covers/the-rapeman-33468.jpg?t=1549744050


    https://image.tmdb.org/t/p/w500/7ExUTWgimKjqu1TNaJvH6ZfI9s9.jpg
  127. @Joe Stalin
    @Hypnotoad666

    Amusingly, the Ukrainians are using the term "denazify" to describe dead Russkies.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1525869598372990980?cxt=HHwWiMC4iZeU_awqAAAA

    While running up the Putin dead Russkie count... how long before the conscripts figure out being cannon fodder isn't a good career move?

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1526446476058148864?cxt=HHwWgIC-4fC-g68qAAAA

    Replies: @WJ

    How long did it take young Americans to figure out that the iraq war was a loser and losing an eye for Iraqi democracy was not a good idea?

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @WJ

    The Daily Mail today mentioned a Russian, "Mikhail Khodaryonok, a retired Soviet colonel, gave a dire assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine on state TV."


    Russian state media's trumped-up narrative of Putin's glorious war in Ukraine was last night shattered by a retired colonel who gave an unusually frank and damning assessment of the situation on the frontlines and world stage.

    Mikhail Khodarenok, a former air defence commander and graduate of some of the Soviet Union's top military schools, used his platform on one of Russia's most-watched talk shows to warn that the war is going badly and is likely to get worse, and that nuclear sabre-rattling - far from being threatening - actually 'looks quite amusing'.

    Ukraine, he said, will soon have mobilised more than a million soldiers who will be trained by the West and equipped with modern weapons, ready to fight and die to protect their homeland against Russia.

    Batting aside repeated interruption from propagandist Olga Skabeyeva that the army will be mostly made of conscripts, Khodarenok insisted that how an army is recruited is irrelevant - what really matters is willingness to fight, and Ukraine 'intends to fight to the last man.'

    Russia's position on the world stage is no better, he added, pointing out that 'we are in full geopolitical isolation, and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us. And it's that situation that we need to get out of.'

    Khodarenok's remarks, broadcast to millions of Russians who until now have been spoon-fed a narrative of their military's prowess and Ukraine's weakness, mark a stunning break with the state-sanctioned narrative and puts him at extreme odds with the Kremlin stooges stood to either side of him.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10823981/Ukraine-war-Retired-colonel-tells-Russian-state-media-world-against-us.html

     

    https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/preview/mol/2022/05/17/3280176617577663574/636x382_MP4_3280176617577663574.mp4
  128. @Twinkie
    @Almost Missouri


    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.
     
    A very good point.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have “country houses” too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network.
     
    Also a very good point. But a point of contention here would be the definition of "elites." You might be surprised that actual elites (not just the upper middle class or lower upper class aspirants) actually own a lot of land, farmland in particular. Bill Gates, for example, is now reputedly the largest private farmland owner (something like 242,000 acres) in the United States.

    Replies: @Unladen Swallow, @Almost Missouri

    I have heard that, but I have also read that John Malone, uber cable TV baron was the country’s largest landowner ( 2.2 million acres ) by the way, he is also a billionaire.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Unladen Swallow


    I have heard that, but I have also read that John Malone, uber cable TV baron was the country’s largest landowner ( 2.2 million acres )
     
    Bill Gates is not the largest landowner in the U.S. He is the large farmland owner in the U.S.
  129. @Twinkie
    @Mr. Anon


    The Anglo-Saxon take-over of Britain may not have been a total replacement, but it was a pretty thorough “Great Replacement”.
     
    It was nowhere near a total replacement. The Anglo-Saxon ancestry is still a minority in Britain, even in coastal England. What was replaced, however, was culture, including language, as you mention. That happens often when elites are replaced (though the opposite sometimes occurs, e.g. the Mongols and the Basques).

    As for “Welsh,” it’s a bit more convoluted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_people#Terminology

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Welsh is actually derived from an old low-German word meaning “foreigner”.

    As for “Welsh,” it’s a bit more convoluted:

    Welsh is related to Walloon, Valais, Vlach, and the Poles’ idiosyncratic name for Italy:

    Welsch is apparently a German-Swiss derogatory term for their fellow citizens who speak a Romance tongue.

  130. @Aidan Kehoe
    @kaganovitch


    “I’m generally sympathetic to this point of view but it should be noted that Japan, who did not import a third world population, nevertheless saw a drastic, perhaps suicidal, drop in fertility.”
     
    I wondered initially if this was linked to access to contraception (the combined oral contraceptive was only legalised there in 1999), but no, TFR of 1.57 in 1989. Which makes intuitive sense, most of the heterosexual sex that doesn't happen, doesn't happen because she’s not interested in him, not because of the chance of getting pregnant.

    This site makes the very iSteve-affordable-family-formation argument that:

    “Even more important than overall employment rates, a large proportion of the young men who are employed today are in temporary jobs, very likely affecting their marriage prospects. And if men's limited and precarious employment opportunities make them poor candidates for marriage, then Japan's fertility is likely to remain very low for some time to come.”
     
    And yes, well, the iSteve argument is usually the right argument.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    …most of the heterosexual sex that doesn’t happen, doesn’t happen because she’s not interested in him, not because of the chance of getting pregnant.

    They have a cure for that, too:

  131. @WJ
    @Joe Stalin

    How long did it take young Americans to figure out that the iraq war was a loser and losing an eye for Iraqi democracy was not a good idea?

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    The Daily Mail today mentioned a Russian, “Mikhail Khodaryonok, a retired Soviet colonel, gave a dire assessment of Russia’s war in Ukraine on state TV.”

    Russian state media’s trumped-up narrative of Putin’s glorious war in Ukraine was last night shattered by a retired colonel who gave an unusually frank and damning assessment of the situation on the frontlines and world stage.

    Mikhail Khodarenok, a former air defence commander and graduate of some of the Soviet Union’s top military schools, used his platform on one of Russia’s most-watched talk shows to warn that the war is going badly and is likely to get worse, and that nuclear sabre-rattling – far from being threatening – actually ‘looks quite amusing’.

    Ukraine, he said, will soon have mobilised more than a million soldiers who will be trained by the West and equipped with modern weapons, ready to fight and die to protect their homeland against Russia.

    Batting aside repeated interruption from propagandist Olga Skabeyeva that the army will be mostly made of conscripts, Khodarenok insisted that how an army is recruited is irrelevant – what really matters is willingness to fight, and Ukraine ‘intends to fight to the last man.’

    Russia’s position on the world stage is no better, he added, pointing out that ‘we are in full geopolitical isolation, and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us. And it’s that situation that we need to get out of.’

    Khodarenok’s remarks, broadcast to millions of Russians who until now have been spoon-fed a narrative of their military’s prowess and Ukraine’s weakness, mark a stunning break with the state-sanctioned narrative and puts him at extreme odds with the Kremlin stooges stood to either side of him.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10823981/Ukraine-war-Retired-colonel-tells-Russian-state-media-world-against-us.html

  132. @Unladen Swallow
    @Twinkie

    I have heard that, but I have also read that John Malone, uber cable TV baron was the country's largest landowner ( 2.2 million acres ) by the way, he is also a billionaire.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    I have heard that, but I have also read that John Malone, uber cable TV baron was the country’s largest landowner ( 2.2 million acres )

    Bill Gates is not the largest landowner in the U.S. He is the large farmland owner in the U.S.

  133. @Achmed E. Newman
    What about that "In hoc to the world" part, Steve? The Roman governments could shave the edges off of their real money, but I don't think issuing Treasury bonds based on made-up money to borrow large sums from the rest of the world was possible back then.

    See, America has a big advantage over ancient Rome in being able to do the "In hoc to the world" part in addition. I see no downsides, no, not a one. Yeah, I do think the new 5 and 10 stores will sell items for 5 and 10 bucks in the very near future. but that's got squat all to do with creating money out of thin air.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    but that’s got squat all to do with creating money out of thin air.

    Roman Emperors were no slouches at creating money from nothing.

    https://www.cointalk.com/attachments/roman-debasement-png.1204017/

    Silver content was remarkably stable during the Republic but became correlated with political violence during the Empire.

    Whatever you do, please don’t draw any comparisons with the Federal Reserve. It is run by Experts who Know What They Are Doing!

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Almost Missouri

    As you are likely aware, the Roman Empire bled a gargantuan amount of silver in trade with Arabia, East Africa, and India (and silver was in shorter supply anyway as the Spanish mines began to run dry). Even without the civil wars and political violence, the debasement of the denarius was inevitable unless something drastic was done about the trade deficit with the East.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  134. @animalogic
    @Almost Missouri

    "Mark Antony’s assassins caught über-Republican Cicero not in Rome but at his rural estate in Formiae, near his birthplace in Arpinum."
    Cicero was a compulsive collector of mansions/property.
    Whatever agricultural interests he had would have been handled by bailiffs (not sure if that's the correct title for such managers)

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Cicero was a compulsive collector of mansions/property.

    Yes, mostly in his home region southeast of Rome. And this is where he was born and died. Not in Rome. But we think of him as “Roman” (and not incorrectly as he was a Roman citizen and a Roman Senator). Which was the original point: traditional elites were not urban, they had power bases in the countryside. In distinction to most modern elites.

    • Replies: @animalogic
    @Almost Missouri

    "Which was the original point: traditional elites were not urban, they had power bases in the countryside."
    I'm not sure whether agrarian power base is a suitable descriptor here.
    Cicero came from a middle class family with few links to Elites.
    Indeed, Cicero of anyone was a man of Rome, the city. His entire rise to the Consularship was based on his legal career -- in the Courts of Rome.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  135. @Twinkie
    @Almost Missouri


    The point of all this being that the ethnic change due to urban collapse and ethnic change due to elite replacement may be two different, if often simultaneous things.
     
    A very good point.

    One of the peculiarities of modern elites is that their Manhattan penthouses, Georgetown manors, or Bel Air mansions really are their homes. They often have “country houses” too, but these are no more self-sufficient than their urban homes; they both really depend on the continued ministrations of the modern techno-industrial logistic network.
     
    Also a very good point. But a point of contention here would be the definition of "elites." You might be surprised that actual elites (not just the upper middle class or lower upper class aspirants) actually own a lot of land, farmland in particular. Bill Gates, for example, is now reputedly the largest private farmland owner (something like 242,000 acres) in the United States.

    Replies: @Unladen Swallow, @Almost Missouri

    Bill Gates, for example, is now reputedly the largest private farmland owner (something like 242,000 acres) in the United States.

    Yes, I’m aware our elites’ recent farmland fetish. In distinction to traditional elites with their base in the countryside though, how many of Bill Gates’s 242,000 acres do you think he has personally been to?

    I’d hazard a first order estimate of zero. It would surprise me if his awareness of all this farmland consists of more than one of his investment advisors mentioning that “we’ve diversified your portfolio into ag”.

    In further distinction to traditional elites, how many troops, levies, housecarls, knights, thanes, orda, or vassals could Bill Gates raise from his 242,000 acres?

    Again, my first order estimate is zero.

    In a national collapse scenario, how many of Bill Gates’s acres would he be able to hold onto based on his paper ownership?

    Again, first order estimate is zero. The Bundy Effect ain’t happening for Bill.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Almost Missouri


    In further distinction to traditional elites, how many troops, levies, housecarls, knights, thanes, orda, or vassals could Bill Gates raise from his 242,000 acres?
     
    When human societies were agrarian and cities as usual were demographic sinks, the countryside was the prime recruiting ground for soldiery. That is no longer the case today. Bill Gates doesn't need a rural power base to have at his disposal an army of highly-trained and -proficient private military contractors (PMCs).

    Yes, I’m aware our elites’ recent farmland fetish.
     
    This "fetish" isn't all that recent. Giant agri-businesses have been buying up farmland for ever and are a part of the elites.

    People of wealth and power have always lusted after land. Farmland these days generate food (esp. plant-based protein-rich food) and bio-fuel. There is a lot of political power in that - even without thanes or huscarls.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  136. @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie


    Bill Gates, for example, is now reputedly the largest private farmland owner (something like 242,000 acres) in the United States.
     
    Yes, I'm aware our elites' recent farmland fetish. In distinction to traditional elites with their base in the countryside though, how many of Bill Gates's 242,000 acres do you think he has personally been to?

    I'd hazard a first order estimate of zero. It would surprise me if his awareness of all this farmland consists of more than one of his investment advisors mentioning that "we've diversified your portfolio into ag".

    In further distinction to traditional elites, how many troops, levies, housecarls, knights, thanes, orda, or vassals could Bill Gates raise from his 242,000 acres?

    Again, my first order estimate is zero.

    In a national collapse scenario, how many of Bill Gates's acres would he be able to hold onto based on his paper ownership?

    Again, first order estimate is zero. The Bundy Effect ain't happening for Bill.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    In further distinction to traditional elites, how many troops, levies, housecarls, knights, thanes, orda, or vassals could Bill Gates raise from his 242,000 acres?

    When human societies were agrarian and cities as usual were demographic sinks, the countryside was the prime recruiting ground for soldiery. That is no longer the case today. Bill Gates doesn’t need a rural power base to have at his disposal an army of highly-trained and -proficient private military contractors (PMCs).

    Yes, I’m aware our elites’ recent farmland fetish.

    This “fetish” isn’t all that recent. Giant agri-businesses have been buying up farmland for ever and are a part of the elites.

    People of wealth and power have always lusted after land. Farmland these days generate food (esp. plant-based protein-rich food) and bio-fuel. There is a lot of political power in that – even without thanes or huscarls.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie


    Bill Gates doesn’t need a rural power base to have at his disposal an army of highly-trained and -proficient private military contractors (PMCs).
     
    True, but in a currency collapse scenario, what's he gonna pay his private army with? Microsoft options?

    Of course, there are plenty of possible intermediate scenarios where Microsoft-type wealth still exists, but the provinces are restless.

    It has yet to be tested whether the working-to-middle-class-origin trigger-pullers of the Deepstate would willingly turn their guns on their non-state fellows. Datapoints like Waco don't augur well perhaps, but that was small, ambivalent, and a generation ago. Obviously, the Deepstate is trying to end-run this contingency by wokifiying and bioleninizing the military and security services as fast as possible, but so far the results are not very formidable. We may live to see how this turns out, unfortunately.

    This “fetish” isn’t all that recent. Giant agri-businesses have been buying up farmland for ever and are a part of the elites.
     
    Yes and no. As Steve occasionally avers, business schools have been deriding farm products as "commodities" (i.e., low margin and bad) for the last half-century, so non-agricultural investors have stayed away. In the last decade or so, though, it started to dawn on even Sili Valley types that 1) the global farmland supply is finite, 2) world population has not plateaued as planned, and 3) no one ever repealed Malthus. They have quietly started acting accordingly.
  137. @Almost Missouri
    @Achmed E. Newman


    but that’s got squat all to do with creating money out of thin air.
     
    Roman Emperors were no slouches at creating money from nothing.

    https://www.cointalk.com/attachments/roman-debasement-png.1204017/

    https://goldbroker.com/media/image/cms/media/images/silver-commodity-money/roman-currency-debasement-silver-content%E2%80%93denarius.png

    Silver content was remarkably stable during the Republic but became correlated with political violence during the Empire.

    https://i0.wp.com/money.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/roman-debasement-share.jpg

    Whatever you do, please don't draw any comparisons with the Federal Reserve. It is run by Experts who Know What They Are Doing!

    https://i.postimg.cc/T294W1KR/Roman-US-Currency.jpg

    Replies: @Twinkie

    As you are likely aware, the Roman Empire bled a gargantuan amount of silver in trade with Arabia, East Africa, and India (and silver was in shorter supply anyway as the Spanish mines began to run dry). Even without the civil wars and political violence, the debasement of the denarius was inevitable unless something drastic was done about the trade deficit with the East.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Twinkie


    the Roman Empire bled a gargantuan amount of silver in trade with Arabia, East Africa, and India
     
    Yes, I was aware, but I've never seen a quantitative analysis of currency debasement due to Eastern trade versus currency debasement due to standard imperial overreach (or versus the self-acceleration due to Gresham's Law). In the absence of a statistical analysis, that, as mentioned, debasement accelerated noticeably during civil strife within the Empire, implies that imperial machinations, rather than foreign trade, was the main driver of debasement. Debasement was at its steepest in the Crisis of the Third Century when imperial infighting was high but foreign trade diminished.
  138. @Hypnotoad666
    @J.Ross


    Doddering corpse Joe Biden is laying the foundation for the collapse of American international business credibility.
     
    Agreed. Apparently the Fed was aghast at the precedent of stealing Russia's foreign reserves. And "Sanctions" now seems to include literal piracy as they grab yachts from Russian citizens. So much for the "rules based world order."

    You'll never hear about it in our corrupt press but all this has left a very unfavorable impression in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @epebble, @Catdompanj, @Peter Akuleyev

    left a very unfavorable impression in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.

    Yes, all countries famous for their lack of corruption and scrupulous attention to rule of law. If anything American willingness to play bully may actually help our business leaders negotiate better deals in those countries.

  139. @Anon

    Ancient DNA from bodies dug up in Rome showed that the capital city was highly cosmopolitan in Imperial times, but by medieval times, Rome had been repopulated by Italians from the surrounding countrysides. Presumably, during the barbarian invasions and ensuing Dark Ages, the cosmopolitan urbanites fled or died, while the indigenous rural peasantry survived to move back into Rome as their ancestors had done during the Roman Republic.
     
    This isn't quite right. Demographically, Imperial Rome was Levantine shifted, while the earlier Roman Republic had been more northern European shifted. The barbarian invasions didn't just collapse Imperial Rome, but also demographically shifted the rural populations of the Italian peninsula, particularly its northern half, in a more northern European direction.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @T.Chris

    That’s BS. Roman Republicans were genetically fully Southern European (between Iberia and Greece) just like Modern Italians. They were never like Northern Europeans. And there weren’t enough barbarian invaders to change the entire peninsula and rural populations.

    https://italianthro.blogspot.com/2019/11/ancient-roman-dna.html

  140. @Twinkie
    @Almost Missouri

    As you are likely aware, the Roman Empire bled a gargantuan amount of silver in trade with Arabia, East Africa, and India (and silver was in shorter supply anyway as the Spanish mines began to run dry). Even without the civil wars and political violence, the debasement of the denarius was inevitable unless something drastic was done about the trade deficit with the East.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    the Roman Empire bled a gargantuan amount of silver in trade with Arabia, East Africa, and India

    Yes, I was aware, but I’ve never seen a quantitative analysis of currency debasement due to Eastern trade versus currency debasement due to standard imperial overreach (or versus the self-acceleration due to Gresham’s Law). In the absence of a statistical analysis, that, as mentioned, debasement accelerated noticeably during civil strife within the Empire, implies that imperial machinations, rather than foreign trade, was the main driver of debasement. Debasement was at its steepest in the Crisis of the Third Century when imperial infighting was high but foreign trade diminished.

  141. @Twinkie
    @Almost Missouri


    In further distinction to traditional elites, how many troops, levies, housecarls, knights, thanes, orda, or vassals could Bill Gates raise from his 242,000 acres?
     
    When human societies were agrarian and cities as usual were demographic sinks, the countryside was the prime recruiting ground for soldiery. That is no longer the case today. Bill Gates doesn't need a rural power base to have at his disposal an army of highly-trained and -proficient private military contractors (PMCs).

    Yes, I’m aware our elites’ recent farmland fetish.
     
    This "fetish" isn't all that recent. Giant agri-businesses have been buying up farmland for ever and are a part of the elites.

    People of wealth and power have always lusted after land. Farmland these days generate food (esp. plant-based protein-rich food) and bio-fuel. There is a lot of political power in that - even without thanes or huscarls.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Bill Gates doesn’t need a rural power base to have at his disposal an army of highly-trained and -proficient private military contractors (PMCs).

    True, but in a currency collapse scenario, what’s he gonna pay his private army with? Microsoft options?

    Of course, there are plenty of possible intermediate scenarios where Microsoft-type wealth still exists, but the provinces are restless.

    It has yet to be tested whether the working-to-middle-class-origin trigger-pullers of the Deepstate would willingly turn their guns on their non-state fellows. Datapoints like Waco don’t augur well perhaps, but that was small, ambivalent, and a generation ago. Obviously, the Deepstate is trying to end-run this contingency by wokifiying and bioleninizing the military and security services as fast as possible, but so far the results are not very formidable. We may live to see how this turns out, unfortunately.

    This “fetish” isn’t all that recent. Giant agri-businesses have been buying up farmland for ever and are a part of the elites.

    Yes and no. As Steve occasionally avers, business schools have been deriding farm products as “commodities” (i.e., low margin and bad) for the last half-century, so non-agricultural investors have stayed away. In the last decade or so, though, it started to dawn on even Sili Valley types that 1) the global farmland supply is finite, 2) world population has not plateaued as planned, and 3) no one ever repealed Malthus. They have quietly started acting accordingly.

  142. OT:
    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/may/19/vangelis-greek-composer-chariots-of-fire-blade-runner-dies

    Vangelis – Playlists – Albums & Singles:
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNms80n59AltHVQuPgGrKkg/playlists?view=50&sort=dd&shelf_id=17666223384013636065

    Blade Runner (Music From The Original Soundtrack) playlist:
    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_kwWYbJ9MI9ALMqJdjVZ_cNJmOROOMc2Y0

  143. @Almost Missouri
    @animalogic


    Cicero was a compulsive collector of mansions/property.
     
    Yes, mostly in his home region southeast of Rome. And this is where he was born and died. Not in Rome. But we think of him as "Roman" (and not incorrectly as he was a Roman citizen and a Roman Senator). Which was the original point: traditional elites were not urban, they had power bases in the countryside. In distinction to most modern elites.

    Replies: @animalogic

    “Which was the original point: traditional elites were not urban, they had power bases in the countryside.”
    I’m not sure whether agrarian power base is a suitable descriptor here.
    Cicero came from a middle class family with few links to Elites.
    Indeed, Cicero of anyone was a man of Rome, the city. His entire rise to the Consularship was based on his legal career — in the Courts of Rome.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @animalogic

    Yes agree, but having made his career in Rome, he felt compelled to take his winnings back to his birthplace to create a simulacrum of the agrarian power base to rival that which other elites had by birth.

    Alternatively, if you don't like the way I presented it, you can think of Cicero as a premature version of a modern elite: making his bones in the city and then buying a country estate to LARP as a traditional elite. But like modern elites with their weekend "country homes", who mostly annoy the locals rather than lead or represent them, Cicero appears not to have been very thorough in his LARPing. Though vastly outnumbered, Cicero's assassins were not at all hindered by the locals from finding or killing him. Rather, they got local assistance.

    For a contrasting case of a traditional elite in the modern era rather than a modern elite in the traditional era, consider Saddam Hussein. Whatever you think of him, he led and was supported by his Tikriti home region. When the US government decided to finish him off, they couldn't just send a couple of assassins to stroll in and do the job, they had to invade and turn over the entire country. And even then it took months of work and little luck to get him.

  144. @animalogic
    @Almost Missouri

    "Which was the original point: traditional elites were not urban, they had power bases in the countryside."
    I'm not sure whether agrarian power base is a suitable descriptor here.
    Cicero came from a middle class family with few links to Elites.
    Indeed, Cicero of anyone was a man of Rome, the city. His entire rise to the Consularship was based on his legal career -- in the Courts of Rome.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Yes agree, but having made his career in Rome, he felt compelled to take his winnings back to his birthplace to create a simulacrum of the agrarian power base to rival that which other elites had by birth.

    Alternatively, if you don’t like the way I presented it, you can think of Cicero as a premature version of a modern elite: making his bones in the city and then buying a country estate to LARP as a traditional elite. But like modern elites with their weekend “country homes”, who mostly annoy the locals rather than lead or represent them, Cicero appears not to have been very thorough in his LARPing. Though vastly outnumbered, Cicero’s assassins were not at all hindered by the locals from finding or killing him. Rather, they got local assistance.

    For a contrasting case of a traditional elite in the modern era rather than a modern elite in the traditional era, consider Saddam Hussein. Whatever you think of him, he led and was supported by his Tikriti home region. When the US government decided to finish him off, they couldn’t just send a couple of assassins to stroll in and do the job, they had to invade and turn over the entire country. And even then it took months of work and little luck to get him.

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