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The English Patients: Stats on 2,249 ICU Admittees in England Are Not Encouraging
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Update: Since I wrote this post, UK prime minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to a hospital with the coronavirus.

One of the widespread hopes has been that the coronavirus is merely dangerous to people who were practically on the verge of death anyway even before the new disease came along. Many optimists have seized upon the advanced average age of Italians who died and their high percentage of “co-morbidities” (although nobody seems to want to explain what percentage of the general population also have problems like hypertension).

Personally, I don’t know that much about Italian social structures. I feel like I have a better understanding of English society, so I was interested in this brand new report (then click on the PDF link in the upper right) on the on 2,249 Intensive Care Unit patients with the new disease in England. (Here

Most are still in the ICU, but of the 690 who aren’t anymore, half got better and half died.

Basically, you don’t want to go into the ICU. You have a high chance of dying, and even if you survive, how vigorous will the rest of your life be? We don’t know much about the long term effects of this particular novel disease. And I’ve got to guess that a week or three in the ICU for any reason will likely permanently damage anybody besides the fairly young.

Generally, as you get older, you come out of a health crisis, even one of only a few months in duration, effectively 5 or 10 or 15 years older than you went into it. To take a minor example, the one health crisis of my life was when I had cancer when I was 38. Probably due to getting into a clinical trial testing a brilliant advance, the first monoclonal antibody Rituximab (for which I hope the innovators live long enough to win their Nobel Prize), I came out of chemotherapy and was back to seemingly full strength within about 24 months. But, mild as this passage was for me, it marked a divide in my life between being a younger man and a middle aged man.

So, of the 2249 who went into the ICU, the mean age of admittees was 60 and median was 61. Men made up 73%. 93% were living without assistance. “Very severe comorbidities” were fairly rare. Whites were slightly underrepresented, South Asians about average, and blacks somewhat overrepresented among those in the ICU.

ICU patients were only slightly fatter than the general population of similar sex and age:

Here’s a table of those who went into ICU and are no longer there (half got better and half died):

Of those who are no longer in ICU, 24% of those under 50 died, 46% of those 50-69 died, and 68% of those 70 or over died. So, basically, you don’t want to go into ICU no matter how young you are.

Okay, so the average English person isn’t a world class triathlete.
But what it looks like is you are better off not getting the infection in the first place than in relying upon your superb Olympic-worthy conditioning to get you through.
Most people who get the germ won’t wind up in ICU. On the other hand, the English stats suggest that the poor bastards who wind up in ICU are NOT people who were already on death’s door, but are instead a fairly random selection of average people, just somewhat older & slightly fatter. Randomness plays a sizable role in who is hit hard.

I encourage you to read this report yourself. Perhaps my interpretation of it is overly pessimistic. One lesson I took away from my experience with cancer is that many people hope you are to blame for your disease (e.g., several people asked my wife, “So, Steve’s a smoker, right?” and seemed depressed to learn I wasn’t) because, since they are blameless, that means they will never die. But I may be misinterpreting the English numbers.

 
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  1. UK says:

    This post is a fair partial explanation for why British ICUs, even in London, are emptier than they were over a month ago.

    It seems that only the extremely sick are being taken in. Perhaps it is an overreaction to fear of ICUs potentially becoming overwhelmed.

    Considering that doctors in London on Coronavirus wards are not easily tested even when they have to self-isolate at home with obvious symptoms, there is so much selection bias it is crazy.

  2. This really tells you very little because in order to be placed in an ICU you have to be very sick to begin with. The people who get put in there of all ages are roughly equally sick when they go in (but the younger ones still have somewhat better outcomes).

    But maybe (made up numbers) 1 in 5 of 80 year olds with Wuhan Virus are going into the ICU and 1 in 30 20 year olds. The mean age of the UK population is 40, the mean age of this population is 60 so clearly it skews much older.

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts – the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years, the middle cohort is 50-69 which is 19 years but the latter cohort has more than twice as many people in it. On a % of population basis, it’s probably 4x. To really clearly present the data there should have been equal # of year age groups = 0-19,20-39, etc.

    But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    Basically agree with Jack here. The phrase "very severe comorbitities" in not defined in the table above, but I assume it does not include important issues like whether the patient is a cigarette smoker or not.

    However, if you are in an ICU, you are in pretty bad shape going in, regardless of premorbid health.

    What is does show is that if you are older or debilitated, you are less likely to make it. Activities of daily living includes feeding, toileting, bathing, dressing, transferring (from bed), and continence (of urine or feces), so if you need help with any of the above and you are in ICU, you are probably a goner.

    Also note that if you have "advanced respiratory support" (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor, whereas if you are just getting "basic respiratory support" (positioning in bed with torso raised, oxygen via nasal cannula) then your chances are much better.

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    By the way, this also raised the question of whether ventilators pumping mechanisms cannot be reused when patients die, or is there also a shortage of the tubing and masks that must be disposed of when patient dies.

    Here's an interesting quote from The Guardian:

    Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, described how ventilators went from $25,000 to $45,000 “because we bid $25,000. California says, ‘I’ll give you $30,000’ and Illinois says, ‘I’ll give you $35,000’ and Florida says ‘I’ll give you $40,000. And then, Fema [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] gets involved and Fema starts bidding!

    “And now Fema is bidding on top of the 50! So Fema is driving up the price. What sense does this make? We’re literally bidding up the prices ourselves.”

    New York state is paying 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than five cents, $7.50 for masks that normally go for 50 cents, $2,795 for infusion pumps that normally cost half that, $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

    But isn't this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?

    , @Polynikes
    Agree. This chart tells us little we don't know. You can cherry pick all kind of inputs to make things appear how you want them. Here they've not distributed the ages evenly and they've eliminated co-morbidities we know are risk factors--mainly, diabetes (probably a proxy for obese-ness), high blood pressure (especially if medicated for it), and other respiratory issues like smoking. So obviously that is going to drop the rate of co-morbidities way down.

    Otherwise this chart backs up what we already know: this is a very bad flu-type illness that seems to be some combination of pneumonia* and swine-flu. It targets the older and those with other health issues, especially obesity. Young healthy people are at little risk, comparatively. These really aren't even questions anymore, although I suppose we should still continue to monitor the data.

    The operative question is: what is to be done about it? And what effects will this "cure" have on society. Currently the "cure" is putting us on the verge of mass unemployment, economic retraction, and now there are indicators from some states that preliminary calls to addiction hotlines are up 20-fold and calls to suicide hotlines are up 25-fold. So while a loud minority continue to beat down the strawman of "it's just the flu," I guess it is up to everyone else to consider the implications of current policy decisions?


    *speaking of pneumonia, something to keep an eye: CDC recorded deaths of pneumonia are dropping quickly over the last 3 weeks--about 25-33% lower than the baseline over the last 5 years. It's quite likely that thousands of regular pneumonia deaths are coded as Covid-19 deaths. That's in line with the new recommendations and the CDC stats back it up, so far.

    Here's an article out of Minnesota on it: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/03/change-to-death-certificates-could-boost-covid19-counts
    , @Anonymous
    Jack D

    Nothing that you say in your overly verbose post negates Steve's major points -

    (1)Most people who become infected with this virus will not get very ill and recover.

    (2) A disproportionate number of those who get very ill and never recover are older people or people with severe comorbidities.

    (3) Unfortunately, there is a not too insignificant number of young and previously healthy patients with Covid-19 who end up in the ICU and never recover. As of right now, the health establishment has not identified a set of risk factors (genetic susceptibility, etc.) that put this group at danger.

    Point 3 is central to Steve's thesis. Most people assumed that the young and healthy were immune to the worst effects of this virus. This is true in most cases but not all. This fact that random young and healthy people can die from this thing is increasing people's anxiety.
    , @Sean
    Only 1 in 50 under 30 year olds infected need any kind of hospital treatment. That is likely a massive overestimate.


    Over the last three months in a Bergamo suburb called Nembro, three-quarters of the population are known to have been infected and 0.8 percent of the population seem to have died a COVID-19 related death (this is including all the excess deaths of those who passed away at home undiagnosed with COVID-19). The rationale for the lockdown originally was stopping too many getting seriously ill at one time and thus have all cause deaths skyrocket because treatment had become unobtainable as the medical services and hospitals became clogged up and overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. Never that with a lockdown we could stop people from dying of COVID-19 that would have died even with the best treatment once they were exposed to the pathogen. But that is what is begining to be implied that testing and lockdown will do. This is the spectre of Dread Risk and it will prevent exit from the lockdown even once it has become established it wouldn't overwhelm the hospitals.

    One in four men in Glasgow will die before his sixty-fifth birthday by stroke, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer. Considering cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction, its not looking good for Scotland, but Russia, where men die from alcohol poisoning so young there are fewer lame ducks/ low hanging fruit for COVID-19, may come out relatively well.

    The government can conscript young men (conceivably women) into the army and send then off to die abroad in order that national power is maintained. Often it is the most intelligent selfless and valuable men who die without reproducing. Something similar in the twilight of life seems hardly less just. Those who would be at most risk of dying younger are the very same ones who ignored official advice not to smoke, drink and overeat. A vaccine is required for COVID-19 to end the lockdown without a tranche of COVID-19 deaths, but although the pathogen (SARS-CoV-2) does not mutate as much as the flu virus, a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 is not going to be ready for use for months no matter what resources they throw at it. And so they are talking about an all-ages lockdown continuing for months, which in a modern just-in-time supply chain economy is impossible without irreversible economic damage.

    Continuing the full lockdown past a month is surely into the realm of where back-to-normal is not going to mean that. Medical services have to be paid for with economic activity and if that ceases the treatment will have to be rationed. This is not COVID-19 hospital overwhelm for a limited time I am talking about, but a depression without precedent in which there will be health care rationing never before seen, and continuing for decades. In that case, rely on it, the death toll will be huge.

    , @Mr. Anon

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts – the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years...
     
    Yes, 16-49 is a meaningless age-category. On average, a 49 year old is not at all like a 16 year-old, or even a 30 year-old. The categories should be broken out by decades as you said.
    , @Hypnotoad666

    on the on 2,249 Intensive Care Unit patients with the new disease in England. . . Most are still in the ICU, but of the 690 who aren’t anymore, half got better and half died.
     
    This means that 345 people in England have died of CV to date after going to the ICU. But they are currently claiming a total of 4,934 British deaths.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-britain-united-kingdom-infection-deaths-symptoms-2020-3

    Can it be true that only 7% (645/4,934) of the people who actually died from CV required ICU treatment? How are the rest dying?

    Do they drop dead too fast for any intervention? Or, is the medical system failing to give them ICU treatment? Or, does the 4,934 number actually include a lot of people who really died of other stuff, and who therefore didn't end up going through the full progression of respiratory symptoms that a terminal CV case would entail?

    Inquiring minds want to know.

  3. To paraphrase Forrest Gump “Hospital is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get”! I had a wicked looking rash on my left calf. My PCP sent me to a dermatologist to have a look only she wasn’t there so her nurse practitioner examined me and said it was just hives and gave me some ointment to put on it. The rash went away after a few weeks but then my urine turned amber. I had some blood work done and was told to report to the ER by my doc. I did and gave them a urine sample. Then a newly hired nurse ( I overheard her being asked if she knew how to insert a catheter in a man’s penis) came in and put the device down my penis. She damaged my bladder and it began to bleed. To stop the bleeding they put a two liter bag of saline hanging above my bed to flush my bladder. Problem was blood clots and that blocked my urinary canal. My bladder was being pressurized and I was in agony. A nurse tried to massage my genitals to work the clots out but it kept happening. I was screaming in pain and finally just ripped all the tubing out of me. That enraged the nurses but they did track down a urologist who took the nurses out of my room and told them they were lucky they hadn’t killed me. I was then taken to surgery to have my bladder repaired. NONE of this had anything to do with my actual problem.

    The rash on my calf was an early indicator or wegener’s granulomatosis, a rare autoimmune disease that, in my case went on to attack my kidneys leaving me with only 11% capacity and condemned to dialysis for the rest of my life which will be short indeed if I get Covid-19

    • Replies: @Smithsonian_6

    My bladder was being pressurized and I was in agony. A nurse tried to massage my genitals to work the clots out
     
    This is the strangest 'letter to Playboy' that I have ever read.
    , @HA
    Yeech. Stay safe, man. And take heart -- not everyone here wants to consign you to the "so what? he was at death's door anyway" bin.
    , @Anonymous

    The rash on my calf was an early indicator or wegener’s granulomatosis,
     
    What did the rash look like?
    , @Gabe Ruth
    Thanks, that is a rough story, but an important message: it's probably not worth going into a hospital if you're walking.
  4. UK, US, Sweden…”strategy” gloriously- failed.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    "UK, US, Sweden…”strategy” gloriously- failed."

    You don't know what the goal was, do you?
  5. This makes for sombre reading.

    If you go onto respiratory support (advanced), you have only a 33% chance of making it out alive.

    …and the UK wants to buy thousands of new ventilators.

    My own hope is for Chloroquinine therapy to be given when illness first manifests. Waiting for breathing to get difficult is waiting too long.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Of course, the key component in a ventilator is the electric motor.

    I earnestly wonder if there is a single facility left in the UK which manufactures electric motors of the correct power level.

    No guesses from where they must be imported from ......
  6. Of those who are no longer in ICU, 24% of those under 50 died, 46% of those 50-69 died, and 68% of those 70 or over died. So, basically, you don’t want to go into ICU no matter how young you are.

    But of course. You never want to get sick from this, no matter how young you are. However, — and what I’ll say is rather obvious — one would specially not want to end up in the intensive care unit (or ill with the new virus in the first place) if they’re over 50 years old and obese, per the data. Most of those who got out alive of the ICU had a body mass index under 25, even though most of those brought there had a BMI over 25. Most of those who died there had a BMI over 30.

    Note that very few of those with body mass index under 18.5 ended up there. They are not common in the English population in general, yes, but that is possibly a symptom the English population is not generally healthy to begin with. BMI has its flaws, is not all there’s to be, and one population, or race, might be healthy at a different average BMI than another, but the data seems to suggest (at the least) the average person living in England (as in the United States) is overweight. If the average person is overweight, as said before, you might have an unhealthy people (living in world’s wealthiest countries), with all the consequences this brings.

  7. Basically, you don’t want to go into the ICU. You have a high chance of dying, and even if you survive, how vigorous will the rest of your life be?

    That depends on how much of an assist the you need from the ventilator. If it has to be set at maximum, it will leave you with greatly diminished lung capacity from scarring of the lungs due to burst alveoli.

  8. Italy allowed 100,000 Chinese workers from Wuhan to move to Italy to work in their factories

    https://www.altnewsmedia.net/news/corona-virus-exclusive-why-italy/

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Strangely, Italy is a land of mass unemployment.
  9. But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.

    I spent 2 weeks in an ICU in 1972, at age 14, with lower lung pneumonia, a complication that developed on top of asthma and what began as a bad chest cold. Though I was strong and fit as a fiddle before I got sick, it was a truly nasty experience, and I was wobbly and well below par for the next six months, even as a teenager.

    I’ll confess, I’m terrified of this damn thing.

    • Replies: @Kylie
    People who have never struggled to breathe have no idea of how terrifying it is.

    I'm with you. I'm terrified of getting this disease.

    As far as I'm concerned, anyone who flouts the social distancing/self isolation guidelines is no better than a drunk driver. Both choose to put their own lives and the lives of others at risk for needlessly selfish reasons.
  10. a) I’ve said this before, but they (most, at least) don’t blame you for being a smoker. They just wanted to assign an obvious reason so they can live with less worry about it themselves, and yeah, figure they will never die. OK, maybe better phrasing would be “they wanted to blame your cancer on smoking.” How about that?

    b) Yes, staying in the hospital can be bad for you. Lying around, getting no more than 2 hours sleep at a time, cause they wake you on THEIR SCHEDULE for new drips of this, new pricks for the other thing, etc., and being in an environment so different from home is not good for you. Then, there are the screw-ups, which happen quite often.

    Oh 3 more words: National Health Service. Steve, if the NHS had been around back in the day, the English Patient would have not been able to be a full-length feature film.

    • Replies: @keypusher
    Oh 3 more words: National Health Service. Steve, if the NHS had been around back in the day, the English Patient would have not been able to be a full-length feature film.

    Yes, that's why privatizing the NHS is such a proven election winner in the UK. My sister had her third child in England, dealt with the NHS throughout the pregnancy, and it damn near turned her into a socialist.
    , @Mr. Anon
    I would suggest a third category: c.) hospital acquired infections, which become more likely the more crowded a hospital gets.
  11. @Jack D
    This really tells you very little because in order to be placed in an ICU you have to be very sick to begin with. The people who get put in there of all ages are roughly equally sick when they go in (but the younger ones still have somewhat better outcomes).

    But maybe (made up numbers) 1 in 5 of 80 year olds with Wuhan Virus are going into the ICU and 1 in 30 20 year olds. The mean age of the UK population is 40, the mean age of this population is 60 so clearly it skews much older.

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts - the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years, the middle cohort is 50-69 which is 19 years but the latter cohort has more than twice as many people in it. On a % of population basis, it's probably 4x. To really clearly present the data there should have been equal # of year age groups = 0-19,20-39, etc.

    But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.

    Basically agree with Jack here. The phrase “very severe comorbitities” in not defined in the table above, but I assume it does not include important issues like whether the patient is a cigarette smoker or not.

    However, if you are in an ICU, you are in pretty bad shape going in, regardless of premorbid health.

    What is does show is that if you are older or debilitated, you are less likely to make it. Activities of daily living includes feeding, toileting, bathing, dressing, transferring (from bed), and continence (of urine or feces), so if you need help with any of the above and you are in ICU, you are probably a goner.

    Also note that if you have “advanced respiratory support” (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor, whereas if you are just getting “basic respiratory support” (positioning in bed with torso raised, oxygen via nasal cannula) then your chances are much better.

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    By the way, this also raised the question of whether ventilators pumping mechanisms cannot be reused when patients die, or is there also a shortage of the tubing and masks that must be disposed of when patient dies.

    Here’s an interesting quote from The Guardian:

    Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, described how ventilators went from $25,000 to $45,000 “because we bid $25,000. California says, ‘I’ll give you $30,000’ and Illinois says, ‘I’ll give you $35,000’ and Florida says ‘I’ll give you $40,000. And then, Fema [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] gets involved and Fema starts bidding!

    “And now Fema is bidding on top of the 50! So Fema is driving up the price. What sense does this make? We’re literally bidding up the prices ourselves.”

    New York state is paying 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than five cents, $7.50 for masks that normally go for 50 cents, $2,795 for infusion pumps that normally cost half that, $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

    But isn’t this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?

    • Replies: @Jack D

    Also note that if you have “advanced respiratory support” (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor,
     
    This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced. We are used to a system where, if you are in respiratory distress you get ventilated in order to "give you a chance". You might not even want to be ventilated but unless someone in your family fights really hard (and maybe even not then) they are going to ventilate you anyway.

    The doctors and the hospitals don't worry about what your "chance" is. ANY chance is considered better than just letting you die. Doctors want to save people, not kill them. Hospitals make money off of ICUs. Families sometimes want to keep grandma around even if she lives in the nursing home and they don't visit as often as they should because she no longer recognizes them and they just know if they pray hard there will be a miracle and grandma will be saved. "Rationing" is a dirt word - everyone should get all you can eat health care even if the chances that it will really help you are tiny.

    But, if you really pressed doctors into predicting who is going to come off of that ventilator and who isn't, they would be able to tell you with a fairly high degree of certainty. Yes, there might be some miracles where 2 or 3% of the ICU patients predicted not to make it ended up making it. And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3% because we don't want to ever turn ANYONE away from a ventilator or take them off of it before they flatline.

    "Rationing" really wouldn't be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance. But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren't getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.
    , @UK
    The ridiculous prices do at least seem likely to motivate businesses to get into this market.
    , @James Braxton
    To an extent, price gouging discourages hoarding.

    If you pay $80 for a bottle of hand sanitizer you either need it really bad or you plan to sell it to someone who needs it worse. You probably won't just keep it in the pantry.

    Maybe this logic doesn't apply to government entities though.
    , @Erik L
    In the paper itself they list and break down the comorbidities that are considered "very severe":

    Very severe comorbidities*, n (%) [N=540]
    Cardiovascular
    Respiratory
    Renal
    Liver
    Metastatic disease
    Haematological malignancy
    Immunocompromise
    , @Corvinus
    "But isn’t this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?"

    In a f---- pandemic? NO. The federal and state governments during this NATIONAL crisis should NOT be bidding against one another. Rather, there should be cooperation and mutual aid, as promised by Trump. Recall that FDR set the production and distribution of materials during World War II, converted peacetime industries to meet the demands of war--which we are in!--and rationed scarce supplies.
    , @obwandiyag
    Don't you know that the free market is the best of all possible economic systems? Don't you know that nothing is better than the free market? Don't you know that, no matter how many people die, as long as there is still a totally free market, then everything is alright. The free market works for everything.
  12. This data argues AGAINST a lockdown. The only real benefit from a lockdown that I can see is that by flattening the curve, those that get infected and need hospitalization get to go to a functioning hospital system rather than an overwhelmed hospital system. Because the epidemiologists are saying that the lockdown won’t change the number of people who eventually get it that much. So the societal benefit is the number of people who get the disease under the long lockdown strategy, need hospitalization and live, but would have died if the hospitals were worse. But if an ICU doesn’t do that much for you anyway (in all probability), then this number, the benefit of a lockdown, is low.

    • Replies: @anon
    This data argues AGAINST a lockdown. The only real benefit from a lockdown that I can see is that by flattening the curve, those that get infected and need hospitalization get to go to a functioning hospital system rather than an overwhelmed hospital system.

    Think more carefully. There are many people who use the hospital, including the ICU. A friend of my just had her third child and unfortunately there were some complications. The child is fine, the mother spent a night in ICU before being moved to a room. None of her family can visit because of quarantine, but at least there was enough hospital capacity to take care of her; her children still have a mother.

    Car accidents happen. Cardiac events happen. All sorts of things happen, and some number of people wind up in the ICU for a time. But if the local ICU is stuffed full of COVID-19 patients there's a problem for other people.

    Flattening the curve is good for the entire community, because ICU space is finite. This should be obvious.
  13. England’s current population is given as 67,797,568 persons. If the figure of 2249 persons in ICU at the moment is for all of England, then the rate of infection for you to be sick enough to end up in ICU is .0000331723 %. Wow, the second coming of the Black Death. Not to mention that the death rate SHOULD be 0%, since we know how to cure this illness.

    Or alternately, you could try an ounce of prevention, eating something high in Vitamin C while sitting in front of a sun lamp. (or the actual Sun where I live, not an option yet everywhere.)

    But clearly, it makes much more sense for the entire world to collectively shit their pants while destroying their Economies over an illness of very low lethality, with a known set of cures, and a known methodology for prevention.

    Men take responsibility for their actions, and their health. So in all seriousness:

    Are we men, or are we Lab Rats?

    • Thanks: Alden
    • Replies: @Smithsonian_6

    then the rate of infection for you to be sick enough to end up in ICU is .0000331723 %. Wow, the second coming of the Black Death
     
    .

    You might want to look up how exponential growth works.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    England’s current population is given as 67,797,568 persons.
     
    No it isn't.

    You've just offended everyone in Ecclefechan, Auchtermuchty, Cwmystwyth and Llanfair­pwllgwyngyll­gogery­chwyrn­drobwll­llan­tysilio­gogo­goch. Not to mention these places:


    https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01581/SIGN_1581022c.jpg
    , @FPD72
    You have two too many 0’s in your answer, since you expressed it as a percentage. 2,249 is .oo331723% of 67,797,568.
    , @ben tillman
    You're off by a factor of 100. It's .0000331723 (or .00331723%), not .0000331723%.

    Also, the population figure is for all of the UK.
  14. All Cowisdom can be summed up in 3-4 points:

    1. this infection is highly atypical, unlike any other influenza

    2. low mortality & low recovery rate. Combined, they’re 5-10% of all cases. More than 90% are still ill. This all takes too long.

    3. symptoms vary so much that it questionable that we can speak of symptoms in any meaningful sense of the word

    4. basically, experts- real experts- don’t know.

    • Replies: @Flubber
    There was a doctor talking on social media earlier that I saw, who said that the treatment approach for COVID-19 was wrong.

    I'm paraphrasing, but he said that traditionally Vents were for people who's lung muscles were too weak/tired. COVID patients muscles are fine, its their ability to capture oxygen that seems to be compromised.

    Thats why so many patients describe feelings of drowning.

    Its an evil bastard. that's for sure.
  15. However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    I realize this may be dispiriting, but your comment put me in mind of the words of Blaise Pascal.

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”

    • Agree: jim jones
    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    There is an air of All's Quiet on the Western Front to this.

    Kemmerich is conscious and talking to his comrades at his hospital bedside. Being the pre-antibiotic era, his nurses have him in the ward of those expected to die from their wounds. His friends know that but Kemmerich hasn't been told as was the protocol. Or maybe he knows but is putting a brave face on it.

    Muller wants his boots, because what is Kemmerich going to do with those really good boots under current circumstances? The other guys give a kind of look, but what is Muller asking for that is so unreasonable, anyway, apart perhaps from giving Muller a clue that he is about to die.

    iSteve: People asking your wife, "so, he's a smoker?" also has an All's Quiet on the Western Front Quality to it. They weren't trying to blame you. They were trying to hang on to something that they wouldn't end up in your place.

    I commend you for saying this without being a scold like you-know-who.,

    , @Prester John
    Yes! Indeed it is.
    , @j mct
    I guess that really is the human condition, stuff like this virus just make it less easy to ignore, like we do most of the time.

    It's not the pig condition though. I have a farmer brother in law how raises pigs, though he isn't a pig farmer, he does it on the side, and raises about a dozen of them every year, slaughtering them in October. Very good bacon. When he slaughters them though, he just puts an apple on the ground, they come over, one at a time as he lets them and he uses a special kind of pistol at pops them behind the ear. Then he puts down more apple for the next one, right next to the previous one, who watched the whole thing, who sprints off to the bait when it's his turn. Pigs don't get death. Some people say elephants get it, but other than that possibility, only humans understand death.

    , @AnotherDad

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”
     

    Blah, blah, blah. Pascal's a downer.

    Life is beautiful. A precious gift from God. Chocolate chip cookies. Learning and figuring stuff out. Your first good kiss. Popping some corn to hang out with your mom. Throwing a perfect spiral, right to your guy's fingertips. Your first real paycheck. Beating a bigger man off the dribble. The accomplishment of honest labor. Heart pounding, a bit winded ... taking in a mountain vista. A the smile of a pretty young woman ... or the feel of her curves in your arms. Holding your child in your arms. Reading stories to your kids, then having them read the stories to you. The noisy serene quiet of the deep forest. Your kids sleeping in the minivan rolling down the highway toward some national park. Your kids graduating high school, graduating college, finding a husband or wife, and ... taking your place. Surfer girls in bikinis on your retirement beach. A beautiful sunset. Christmas morning with your grandkids. Reading stories to them and telling them about your life and their world.

    Life:
    -- Case fatality rate: 100%
    -- Best damn thing imaginable.

  16. Just wondering if anyone is tabulating total mortality rate of the entire population from all causes. Also wondering if anyone is performing random sample testing of a population.

    By the above account, the virus is certainly terrible, and it seems innovative and likely there will need to be increased resources to overcome it. Under an environment of a rapidly contracting economy, where are these resources to come from?

    Given the economic costs of current policies are becoming more clear and a marginally improved mortality information provided here (if, however, abstracted from the rest of the world), might we come up with a less expensive policy plan than mass impoverishment?

    • Replies: @Ray
    Yes , the average number of deaths per week here in the UK from all causes in typically 1600 to 17 per week. The numbers are up a little in the last couple of week - increased by the Chinese flu but lower in terms of flu, hepatitis , car accidents . There was an article about this in the online magazine Unherd a couple of days .
  17. Most people who get the germ won’t wind up in ICU. On the other hand, the English stats suggest that the poor bastards who wind up in ICU are NOT people who were already on death’s door, but are instead a fairly random selection of average people, just somewhat older & slightly fatter. Randomness plays a sizable role in who is hit hard.

    Steve, agree these figures are depressing. I don’t like to see younger people in there at all, and i’d like to see more comorbidity.

    But this certainly doesn’t look like a “fairly random selection just somewhat older and slightly fatter”.

    16-49 is a the huge band, 35 years, while the 50-69 is 20 years. Yet the ratio is 123/310. There are a lot of older Brits now from their later baby boom so flat isn’t a ridiculous simplification. That gives you a 310/20 vs. 123/35 comparison–a factor of 4.4 skew between those brackets. Not as much as i’d like but still a huge factor.

    Then if you add in the dying … which is barely above 50-50 for the 50-70 group, but < 25% for the younger folks. That jacks it by 168/310 over 29/123. Granted it will be a lower skew when the people still in the ICU are "released", but this is still a huge factor–the younger folks do way better. That jacks the overall ratio to 10x.

    And of course that isn't 10x better for a 30 year old. There's no doubt the admission for both of these groups skews old. Most of these admits in the 16-49 group are probably in their 40s skewing late. So the averages are like comparing results for 45 year old with a 65 year old. 10x better for the 45 year old. Not random.

    And just a glance shows you that the 70+ group are another step down. That's a much smaller population group–England was poor and still rationing right after the war and i don't believe had as big and immediate bulge as our annoying lead boomers (e.g. Clinton, W, Trump, Hillary). But that 70+ group still has 80% the admits and die at over 2-1, which will be probably 3-1 or more by the time all the cases resolve.

    I'll agree the comorbidities is depressing. I don't know how common, ergo how over-represented they are, but the high skew toward regular folks–depressing.

    And, i'd definitely like the age skew to better. Like any sane person i want this to be knocking out only the old–who've lived there lives–and the sick. If this was 100% 80+ with pre-existing health issues, we could isolate those folks as best we could and open up right now.

    But still i wouldn't call this random. A very strong age skew is there even if it isn't as strong as i'd like.

    • Agree: Jack D
  18. B36 says:

    Remember that not all patients with respiratory failure get sent to the ICU. Some of the elderly with comorbidities have preexisting DNR orders or choose DNR status at the last moment and are managed on the ward until death. And harsh as it may sound, at times a doc faced with an unrealistic patient and/or family may slow walk an ICU transfer (“FFS, I’m not putting an 82 year old COPDer with dementia on a ventilator”), and nature takes its course.

    • Agree: Cortes
  19. Pascal be damned. His metaphor does not obtain for mentation of the very old. I know I will die pretty soon being 86. But day to day that knowledge does not obtrude on my consciousness. Of course I speak only for myself but I am surely not the only one emotionally unaffected by an impending but temporally indeterminate doom. Pascal evidently had a neurosthenic disposition which is not typical.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams

    Pascal evidently had a neurosthenic disposition which is not typical.
     
    Philip Larkin appears to have shared it: https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/48422/aubade-56d229a6e2f07
  20. @black sea

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

     

    I realize this may be dispiriting, but your comment put me in mind of the words of Blaise Pascal.

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”

    There is an air of All’s Quiet on the Western Front to this.

    Kemmerich is conscious and talking to his comrades at his hospital bedside. Being the pre-antibiotic era, his nurses have him in the ward of those expected to die from their wounds. His friends know that but Kemmerich hasn’t been told as was the protocol. Or maybe he knows but is putting a brave face on it.

    Muller wants his boots, because what is Kemmerich going to do with those really good boots under current circumstances? The other guys give a kind of look, but what is Muller asking for that is so unreasonable, anyway, apart perhaps from giving Muller a clue that he is about to die.

    iSteve: People asking your wife, “so, he’s a smoker?” also has an All’s Quiet on the Western Front Quality to it. They weren’t trying to blame you. They were trying to hang on to something that they wouldn’t end up in your place.

    I commend you for saying this without being a scold like you-know-who.,

  21. The HBD crowd is very worried about this virus for reasons that are mystifying. They don’t show anywhere near this much concern for the misery of hundreds of millions of White people all over the West. They seem preoccupied with preserving the current Establishment – just educating it a bit.

    All the “we can be like the Greatest Generation by fighting the virus” stuff (God help us, please don’t let us be that bad!) might be the last gasp of civic nationalism. Maybe that’s what they fear; they worship Ashkenazi and the Chinese for having high IQs, and dread the thought of Whites actually getting a voice, as a people. Perhaps especially the White working class.

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane
    • Troll: Peter Frost
  22. Almost 3/4 of ICU deaths listed in the chart are males.

    Can you imagine what would be happening right now if the gender proportions of ICU deaths (and virus deaths more generally) were reversed?

    It would be all pink ribbons–or something–and stentorian shrieking that “the patriarchy doesn’t care about the lives of women.”

    No doubt some equivalent of ACT UP would already be aggressively soliciting funding and marching on Capitol Hill.

    • Replies: @SFG
    Indeed. I've thought about figuring out a way to get involved in men's-rights activism should I survive this.
  23. Recent studies show that patients who have recovered from covid-19 end up with most of their vital organs severely damaged, not just the lungs. Kidneys, heart, even the brain.
    If these patients haven’t developed a resistance to covid-19 or its future variants, there’ll be a spike in mortality next winter, when covid-19 and influenza make a comeback.

    • Replies: @Rex Little

    Recent studies show that patients who have recovered from covid-19 end up with most of their vital organs severely damaged, not just the lungs. Kidneys, heart, even the brain.
     
    First I've heard of that. Got a link?
  24. Anonymous[360] • Disclaimer says:

    Basically, it’s all down to the physiology of the mortal, cobbled together, fishy originated casks which we inhabit.
    Metabolism – which, of course is vital, particularly with brain cells, depends on oxygenation. Oxygenation, in turn, depends on alveoli – tiny, blind air sacs in which the lungs terminate. Any blockage of the alveoli is bad news – excruciatingly uncomfortable to the sufferer – rather like the mortal embrace of a Boa Constrictor, but internally – whilst robbing the body of oxygen, the staff of life.
    As it happens, the internal surface area of the alveoli makes for excellent feeding for the Covid virus, concealed warm and wet, in the virus’s vital quest of turning human flesh into crystalline discreet replicating units of the virulent variety.

    Anyone who’s suffered from long-term respiratory illness, such as asthma, can tell you that the blind, one way bellow system that we depend on is, quite frankly, shit.

    Blame the Devonian times, high temperatures, and lack of dissolved oxygen in water – Corona virus, plague and all, is merely a tangential phenomenon after the fact.

  25. as says:

    Interesting report, thanks for posting.

    Agree with

    16-49 is a huge and meaningless age range.

    Why don’t they break down the age ranges in a more meaningful way?

    16-19
    20-29
    30-39
    40-49
    etc.

    2/3 of the uk population is overweight or obese easily.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn03336/

    Looking at the graph you posted, it seems like the fatter you are, the more likely you are to be admitted. Underweight people aren’t being admitted at all.

    “severe comorbidities”

    Cardiovascular: symptoms at rest
    • Respiratory: shortness of breath with light activity or home ventilation
    • Renal: RRT for end-stage renal disease
    • Liver: biopsy-proven cirrhosis, portal hypertension or hepatic encephalopathy;
    • Metastatic disease: distant metastases
    • Haematological malignancy: acute or chronic leukaemia, multiple myeloma or
    lymphoma
    • Immunocompromise: chemotherapy, radiotherapy or daily high dose steroid
    treatment in previous 6 months, HIV/AIDS or congenital immune deficiency

    There’s no data on whether they were smokers or asthmatics.

    I know this is a sensitive point for you Steve, but whether you’re a smoker is significant when talking about respiratory infections.

    I would say most people feel that obese people had it coming. I know I feel that way. I think it’s because this is something that you have some control over at least, like smoking.

  26. @Jack D
    This really tells you very little because in order to be placed in an ICU you have to be very sick to begin with. The people who get put in there of all ages are roughly equally sick when they go in (but the younger ones still have somewhat better outcomes).

    But maybe (made up numbers) 1 in 5 of 80 year olds with Wuhan Virus are going into the ICU and 1 in 30 20 year olds. The mean age of the UK population is 40, the mean age of this population is 60 so clearly it skews much older.

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts - the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years, the middle cohort is 50-69 which is 19 years but the latter cohort has more than twice as many people in it. On a % of population basis, it's probably 4x. To really clearly present the data there should have been equal # of year age groups = 0-19,20-39, etc.

    But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.

    Agree. This chart tells us little we don’t know. You can cherry pick all kind of inputs to make things appear how you want them. Here they’ve not distributed the ages evenly and they’ve eliminated co-morbidities we know are risk factors–mainly, diabetes (probably a proxy for obese-ness), high blood pressure (especially if medicated for it), and other respiratory issues like smoking. So obviously that is going to drop the rate of co-morbidities way down.

    Otherwise this chart backs up what we already know: this is a very bad flu-type illness that seems to be some combination of pneumonia* and swine-flu. It targets the older and those with other health issues, especially obesity. Young healthy people are at little risk, comparatively. These really aren’t even questions anymore, although I suppose we should still continue to monitor the data.

    The operative question is: what is to be done about it? And what effects will this “cure” have on society. Currently the “cure” is putting us on the verge of mass unemployment, economic retraction, and now there are indicators from some states that preliminary calls to addiction hotlines are up 20-fold and calls to suicide hotlines are up 25-fold. So while a loud minority continue to beat down the strawman of “it’s just the flu,” I guess it is up to everyone else to consider the implications of current policy decisions?

    *speaking of pneumonia, something to keep an eye: CDC recorded deaths of pneumonia are dropping quickly over the last 3 weeks–about 25-33% lower than the baseline over the last 5 years. It’s quite likely that thousands of regular pneumonia deaths are coded as Covid-19 deaths. That’s in line with the new recommendations and the CDC stats back it up, so far.

    Here’s an article out of Minnesota on it: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/03/change-to-death-certificates-could-boost-covid19-counts

  27. The only victim, so far, who I knew personally, was a woman in her late 80s. I won’t be allowed to attend the funeral.

    The celebrity deaths that I know of are Eddie Large (a comedian aged 79), the Marquis of Bath (74), Adam Schlesinger from the Fountains of Wayne (early 50s). A rather small sample.

    According to Anatoly Karlin you have a better than 50-50 chance of recovering even in your 80s, which is somewhat comforting.

    It looks pretty grim. We really need a treatment that works. Ventilators won’t be enough.

    • Replies: @Lagertha
    Adam, of Fountains of Wayne, had stage 4 pancreatic cancer. His case has been hyped by the craven media, when he was actually, on the verge of dying anytime. It just irritates me that the public is not aware that he was dying of cancer for a long time. No one survives pancreatic cancer - don't get tattoos!
  28. I sort of imagine Brits like these being the patients.

    Big bellies, lots of tattoos, heavy drinkers. Bill Burr calls it the “English fish & chips chest.” Also makes you wonder how much of Spain’s outbreak has to do with its rather large British expat population, who’d rather sing songs than mask up and shelter in place. Spain must be absolutely delighted to have these people in its country.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Fondly known in England as the 'beer gut'.

    In the words of the late, great Benny Hill:

    Female Character to Benny: 'If that belly was on a girl, why, she would be pregnant'
    Benny Hill: 'It was, and she is'.
    , @YetAnotherAnon
    "Also makes you wonder how much of Spain’s outbreak has to do with its rather large British expat population"

    You're wrong - again. Madrid and Barcelona are the most heavily impacted areas, not Andalucia.

    Just because you want something to be true doesn't make it so.

    Guardian live blog April 2

    "The pro-independence leader of Catalonia, the region of Spain hardest hit by the coronavirus after Madrid, has abandoned his government’s initial reluctance to seek help from the Spanish army, saying any assistance would be gratefully received, reports Sam Jones from Madrid.

    Last month, Quim Torra’s separatist administration said the Spanish military was not needed in the region. But as the region confirmed 21,804 cases of the virus and 2,093 deaths on Thursday, Torra asked for help from the army.

    “If they can help us – and if any doctor can come and help us – I’d be very grateful,” he told Radio Ser Catalunya.

    However, while Torra admitted that his government had not kept people sufficiently informed about the desperate situation in Catalonia’s care homes – where 362 people have died from the virus – he said his government was bearing the brunt of the health crisis when it came to resources.

    “We haven’t received any tests from the Spanish state,” he said.

    “The Catalan government is providing 90% of the resources, with the other 10% coming from the Spanish state.”

    Catalonia’s health minister, Alba Vergés, also appealed for assistance from the Spanish military, which is already disinfecting old people’s homes in the region and helping to set up a large field hospital in a conference centre in Barcelona.

    “We need hands,” Vergés told Catalunya Ràdio. “And by ‘hands’, I also mean that if the army has doctors and nurses, they should be made available to us.”"
     
  29. Addendum:
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

    Translation: since the death rate is nowhere near as bad as the numbers we have been shrieking about for two months, just pull a cause of death out of your ass. So, we know that the US Medical community is as corrupt as it is incompetent, what about NHS in Britain? These do seem to me relevant questions.

  30. This suggests that modern ICUs are iatrogenic abattoirs much like the Semmelweis’s First Ward at Vienna General Hospital in the 1840s.

  31. There are about 47,000 confirmed cases in England. So far 29 people under the age of 50 have died. Some significant percentage of those 29 people had co-morbidities. How many people under the age of 50 with no co-morbidities have died of this virus in England?

    What percentage of the 47,000 are under the age of 50 with no co-morbidities? If you are English, under the age of 50, with no co-morbidities, you have a ___% chance of dying from it?

    Also, it was wrong of people to assume that Steve smoked when they heard that he had cancer, but I’m going to go ahead and assume that some of the English people under 50 who died were heavy smokers. I don’t think “heavy smoker” is considered a co-morbidity, but it might as well be.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    If you are English, under the age of 50, with no co-morbidities, you have a ___% chance of dying from it?
     
    Probably somewhere on the order of .05% or 1 in 2,000 infected, with most of that in the 40-49 group. When it comes to this disease, the younger the better.

    This started out as Tom Hanks Disease and then it was a nursing home disease but it's going to be a ghetto disease. In Milwaukee, 80% of the dead were black, mostly males. Chicago, 70%. They are the under-65s with the most co-morbidities.

    , @JimDandy
    Yeah, very much so. I had a feeling the black inner cities were going to get hit hard. So much co-morbidity in tightly packed areas. That infamous skid row tent city of homeless in LA seems ripe for disaster.
  32. Anon[674] • Disclaimer says:

    Mr. Sailer, have you looked into Ivermectin?
    I know a few nerdy cattle ranchers, they started getting to know the substance while it was still looked down upon by veterinarians. One fellow in particular kept his dog alive for years with heart worm.

    At the moment it’s inexpensive, in clinical trials and (like the microwave) they don’t understand how it works on covid. Daily Mail ran an article a couple days ago.

    A couple of boxes in the cupboard could lower stress levels immensely. Life will deal to us all blows and wounds. But we were not made for pleasure. We are meant for greatness. Best wishes.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    A couple of boxes in the cupboard could lower stress levels immensely.
     
    Where can one obtain it?
    , @danand
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8186287/Monash-University-scientists-anti-parasite-Ivermectin-kill-COVID-19-cells-two-days.html

    #674, from a Daily Mail article on the 3rd:

    Coronavirus breakthrough as scientists discover a drug used to treat HEAD LICE can kill COVID-19 cells.

    Researchers at Monash University found Ivermectin can kills COVID-19 cells
    The anti-parasite drug killed off the cells within two days and is widely available
    Scientists are moving towards human trials but expect it to be at least a month
    Ivermectin has also been found to work against HIV, influenza and Zika virus”
     
    https://flic.kr/p/2iMuoiH

    Makes you strong like horse, maybe even Ox! Available @ Amazon (I’m ordering before the run, and $2K price increase.)

    Thanks for the tip #674.
  33. The worst part is, we’re going to see a lot of the same panic, unpreparedness, and lack of good data the next time a newish virus hits.

  34. data looks similar to the ICU outcomes during the 2009 Swine flu, which killed mostly younger people under the age of 45. Back in 2009 74% of ventilated Swine flu patients died, . The majority of patients who expired were of the age group of 20–39 years. 900 American children killed in first 6 months of the swine flu pandemic.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3456478/

    The emergent pandemic H1N1-2009 virus is challenging to the medical community around the world. Because of its unusual rapidity of spread specially among young and previously healthy patients. In the present study, majority (78.1%) of the cases were seen in age group of 15–45 years, was fatal in 60% (15/25). This is similar to study by Choudasama et al., in which mean age was 29.4 years[15] This may be due to immunity in older persons due to pre-2009 H1N1 influenza virus exposure.

  35. Those figures certainly give a Boomer, even a fit one, pause for thought. If so many younger than I don’t make it that is not good news at all.

    Are we sure this isn’t an escaped experimental weapon/research project from the Wuhan Institute of Virology? Where exactly is Huang Yanling?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8188159/Did-coronavirus-leak-research-lab-Wuhan-Startling-new-theory-no-longer-discounted.html

    • Replies: @Smithsonian_6

    Are we sure this isn’t an escaped experimental weapon/research project from the Wuhan Institute of Virology?
     
    I would say that is about 100x more likely than a group of visiting US soldiers releasing it on purpose.
  36. “Lockdown” in the UK, is still quite weak, unfortunately. It is not known if this will be sufficient to reduce the rate of infection below 1 (if yes, then it will be very good news about the controllability of the epidemic).

    The behaviour of the public has been disobedient of directives for how people should behave during an epidemic.

    Situations you can see in supermarkets are a real disaster. Lots of people are touching things in supermarkets (including products), without wearing gloves. People talking to each other and talking to staff, people queuing for checkouts close together ignoring instructions to stand apart, and most people are without masks, let alone goggles. A minority proportion of people have been wearing disposable masks.

    And this behaviour includes a lot of nerdy looking demographics, who are probably professors, engineers, scientists, i.e. people who should understand the germ theory of disease. Moreover, there are old people with grey hair behaving like this despite their higher risk from this particular virus – without masks and goggles.

    • Replies: @Lugash

    And this behaviour includes a lot of nerdy looking demographics, who are probably professors, engineers, scientists, i.e. people who should understand the germ theory of disease. Moreover, there are old people with grey hair behaving like this despite their higher risk from this particular virus – without masks and goggles.
     
    Same here. Grandparents meeting with their grandchildren for totally non essential issues. Entire family units(grandma ~70, mom ~40 and grandson ~10) all going to the grocery store together. And 'Jesus will protect me'.
    , @YetAnotherAnon
    “Lockdown” in the UK, is still quite weak, unfortunately.

    It's pretty strong in the rural area where I live, don't know what it's like in the cities, but pretty strong in the nearest large town too. Difficult to trust the former Paper Of Record 'cos the Mail does like a good "aren't these people awful" story.

    This is definitely not good though. If the Chief Medical Officer breaks the rules, how are other people going to follow them?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/05/scotland-chief-medical-officer-seen-flouting-lockdown-advice-catherine-calderwood

    Police have given Scotland’s chief medical officer, Catherine Calderwood, a formal warning about her conduct after she visited her second home in Fife in breach of her own advice to avoid travel.

    Calderwood was forced to apologise after being pictured on Saturday with her family taking a walk with their dog through the East Neuk, a picturesque area of Fife on the Firth of Forth, about 45 miles from her main home in Edinburgh.

    At the Scottish government’s daily coronavirus briefing on Sunday Calderwood admitted that she had also been to the property last weekend.

    Scottish government adverts are being shown on television this weekend where Calderwood says: “To help save lives, stay at home.”

    With Calderwood now under intense pressure to resign, Scotland’s chief constable, Iain Livingstone, said his officers had visited her at her main home in Edinburgh on Sunday morning and formally warned her about her breach of safety regulations.
     
    , @anonymous
    Gloves are a false security blanket. You touch something with the virus and it's now on your gloves. You'd have to change your gloves frequently to be safe depending on what you're doing. Think how easy it would be to spread the virus with gloves from touching an unclean shopping cart handle or infected products, pull out your CC to pay, and then touch your car door handle and steering wheel. You've now potentially infected your wallet, CC and car. It's much better and easier to use hand sanitizer as needed. When you bring your stuff home, you can either disinfect the items or quarantine them for up to 3 days when the virus has degraded enough to be safe.
  37. I hope hospitals force all workers to wear masks while on the job from now on. Before the pandemic, I’d see more masks at an Urgent Care center than a hospital. You never want to go to the hospital since it is crawling with germs, let alone go to the ICU.

    Has anyone been to a UK hospital or even an ICU? Is it well run, clean, etc. Or is it pretty gross?

  38. Here’s some happy news from England to cheer everyone up:

    “ After Corbyn, UK Labour elects Keir Starmer, Zionist with Jewish wife, as leader”

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/keir-starmer-elected-uk-labour-chief-apologizes-to-jews-for-party-anti-semitism/

    • Replies: @Lot
    More good news:

    NY daily deaths dropped yesterday
    Italian deaths Saturday lowest in 10 days
    Spain has third day of lower totals
    Bill Gates estimates US deaths will be “well short” of Trump’s 100k statement

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/05/bill-gates-coronavirus-pandemic-a-nightmare-scenario.html

    On the economic front, Chinese tax revenue data from February isn’t as bad as I’d expect: VAT down 19% and overall down 9%.

    Possible vaccine breakthrough: researchers in La Jolla are looking for people who fully recovered from CV to donate blood to further their research:

    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/science/story/2020-04-03/scripps-research-find-evidence-of-an-anchilles-heel
    , @Alden
    He’s a crusading civil rights anti White racist radical environmental barrister. He was the prosecutor who charged and prosecuted for racial crime the drug dealer thugs who killed their thug drug dealer Stephen Lawrence back in the 1990s. He made Stephen Lawrence the Marty and saint he is today. Kind of a William Kunstler, Yagman, Dershowitz, Gerry Spence lawyer.

    He’s just another anti White racist and anti business anti earning a living radical environmentalist instead of an old fashioned Marxist like Corbyn. Labour selected him because he’s a moderate. He’s in the still existing Trotskite wing of Labour Party.
    Maoist Corbyn radical. Trotskyite Radical environmentalist anti White activist is moderate.
    , @Pericles
    Lol, what a guy and what a party. They will cooperate with Boris against Corona-chan and otherwise it seems mainly occupy themselves with rooting out anti-semitism. Now that's how you win elections!

    Though there are still some dark clouds over the Tel Aviv Candidate.


    Starmer is a member of Labour Friends of Palestine & the Middle East, a parliamentary group that promotes support for the Palestinians and campaigns for “peace and justice in the Middle East through the implementation of international law and respect for human rights.”
    ...
    Starmer drew criticism in 2017 when he invited a controversial anti-Israel charity to speak to the House of Commons. The Camden Abu Dis Friendship Association has praised Palestinian suicide bombers who targeted Israeli civilians during the Second Intifada.

     

    Suddenly there is a certain froideur in the room. Well, I'm sure this can be quietly adjusted in a nice back room. Or, if worst comes to worst, perhaps his wife can execute the Esther option.

    Finally, this sentence was independently funny.


    The Conservatives have also promised eye-watering sums to keep businesses and individuals afloat, wading into traditional Labour territory.

     

  39. Basically, you don’t want to go into the ICU.

    Certainly not an NHS ICU.

    So, COVID-19 disproportionately kills fatties when compared to viral pneumonia, which culls more along the lines of a lognormal distribution skewed to the disadvantage of the leaner. In other words, COVID-19 is more inclusive of those normally excluded because of their weight.

    COVID-19 is also much more inclusive, because viral pneumonia skews 88% against caucasians.

    So, do we continue to fight a disease which is actually more inclusive to the ordinary losers in life’s lottery?

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    Boris Johnson is quite chubby - is this why he may be playing chess with Death right now?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4yXBIigZbg

    Johnson would probably try Monopoly, and lose anyway.
  40. @Jonathan Mason
    Basically agree with Jack here. The phrase "very severe comorbitities" in not defined in the table above, but I assume it does not include important issues like whether the patient is a cigarette smoker or not.

    However, if you are in an ICU, you are in pretty bad shape going in, regardless of premorbid health.

    What is does show is that if you are older or debilitated, you are less likely to make it. Activities of daily living includes feeding, toileting, bathing, dressing, transferring (from bed), and continence (of urine or feces), so if you need help with any of the above and you are in ICU, you are probably a goner.

    Also note that if you have "advanced respiratory support" (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor, whereas if you are just getting "basic respiratory support" (positioning in bed with torso raised, oxygen via nasal cannula) then your chances are much better.

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    By the way, this also raised the question of whether ventilators pumping mechanisms cannot be reused when patients die, or is there also a shortage of the tubing and masks that must be disposed of when patient dies.

    Here's an interesting quote from The Guardian:

    Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, described how ventilators went from $25,000 to $45,000 “because we bid $25,000. California says, ‘I’ll give you $30,000’ and Illinois says, ‘I’ll give you $35,000’ and Florida says ‘I’ll give you $40,000. And then, Fema [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] gets involved and Fema starts bidding!

    “And now Fema is bidding on top of the 50! So Fema is driving up the price. What sense does this make? We’re literally bidding up the prices ourselves.”

    New York state is paying 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than five cents, $7.50 for masks that normally go for 50 cents, $2,795 for infusion pumps that normally cost half that, $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

    But isn't this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?

    Also note that if you have “advanced respiratory support” (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor,

    This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced. We are used to a system where, if you are in respiratory distress you get ventilated in order to “give you a chance”. You might not even want to be ventilated but unless someone in your family fights really hard (and maybe even not then) they are going to ventilate you anyway.

    The doctors and the hospitals don’t worry about what your “chance” is. ANY chance is considered better than just letting you die. Doctors want to save people, not kill them. Hospitals make money off of ICUs. Families sometimes want to keep grandma around even if she lives in the nursing home and they don’t visit as often as they should because she no longer recognizes them and they just know if they pray hard there will be a miracle and grandma will be saved. “Rationing” is a dirt word – everyone should get all you can eat health care even if the chances that it will really help you are tiny.

    But, if you really pressed doctors into predicting who is going to come off of that ventilator and who isn’t, they would be able to tell you with a fairly high degree of certainty. Yes, there might be some miracles where 2 or 3% of the ICU patients predicted not to make it ended up making it. And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3% because we don’t want to ever turn ANYONE away from a ventilator or take them off of it before they flatline.

    “Rationing” really wouldn’t be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance. But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced."

    Tell that to state governors, hospital staff, but more importantly, the patients and their family.

    “Rationing” really wouldn’t be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance."

    Right, which the Trump Administration is NOT meeting its promise.

    "But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable."

    Right. #DieForTheDow
    , @Jim Don Bob

    And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3%
     
    ...

    I heard on a Wall Street conference call a guy say that GDP will be down 24% this year and the recovery will be a U-shaped curve, not a V-shaped one. All this over what increasing looks to me as "just" a really bad flu. YMMV.

    , @3g4me
    Jack D: Never would have predicted I'd find your comments the rare voice of reason among the hysteria here at iSteve, but lots of things I wouldn't have predicted have happened, so . . .

    Your problem (and mine) is that we're being rational, not hysterical. Others here, while perhaps not quite hysterical, have admitted they're "terrified" of covid. I have no particular desire to die, but neither am I terrified of a virus that, while perhaps more severe and unpleasant, does not statistically cause any more illness and death than any new variant of the flu does any year. It's not the bubonic plague and I'm not seeing the promised pyramids of corpses (unfortunately). I'm just seeing lots of people cowering under their beds and shrieking "OMG! We're all going to dieeeee!!!" And medical rationing - particularly for those over 80 and/or in poor health, is logical and practical. I don't know where this desire to live forever illness free comes from, but as a Christian I can confidently say it is nowhere promised in the New Testament. Eternal life is not in this flesh, which will always remain vulnerable to illness and disease. The modern American medical practice keeping every 85 year old technically alive but bedbound and rarely sentient for the last 'x' months via hundreds of thousands of modern care is obscene. And this hysteria over a virus is utterly ludicrous. And I hate most people anyhow, and now even more so. And I'm 61 and refuse to wear a mask or cower.

    Get over yourselves, people. Where is your purported dissidence, or resolve, or even rationality? You have revealed yourselves to be pupal bugmen just waiting to virtue signal with the best of the cat ladies (and the Nice White Ladies who are having a grand old time bullying everyone and trying to shame them into cowering along with the rest). If you're terrified unto death, then die already. Otherwise, grow a pair and quit your whinging.
  41. Anonymous[284] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    This really tells you very little because in order to be placed in an ICU you have to be very sick to begin with. The people who get put in there of all ages are roughly equally sick when they go in (but the younger ones still have somewhat better outcomes).

    But maybe (made up numbers) 1 in 5 of 80 year olds with Wuhan Virus are going into the ICU and 1 in 30 20 year olds. The mean age of the UK population is 40, the mean age of this population is 60 so clearly it skews much older.

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts - the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years, the middle cohort is 50-69 which is 19 years but the latter cohort has more than twice as many people in it. On a % of population basis, it's probably 4x. To really clearly present the data there should have been equal # of year age groups = 0-19,20-39, etc.

    But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.

    Jack D

    Nothing that you say in your overly verbose post negates Steve’s major points –

    (1)Most people who become infected with this virus will not get very ill and recover.

    (2) A disproportionate number of those who get very ill and never recover are older people or people with severe comorbidities.

    (3) Unfortunately, there is a not too insignificant number of young and previously healthy patients with Covid-19 who end up in the ICU and never recover. As of right now, the health establishment has not identified a set of risk factors (genetic susceptibility, etc.) that put this group at danger.

    Point 3 is central to Steve’s thesis. Most people assumed that the young and healthy were immune to the worst effects of this virus. This is true in most cases but not all. This fact that random young and healthy people can die from this thing is increasing people’s anxiety.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    The young and healthy are not immune but the vast majority will experience this as a cold or flu like disease. They are not going to die from it. Yes if you are 25 and sick enough to be put in the ICU, you may die (not at as high a rate as 85 year olds in the ICU, but at a significant rate), but very few are. 25 year olds who are unlucky enough to be in the ICU as a result of pneumonia or trauma or anything else also die at a significant rate - the ICU is for people who are extremely sick and they can't always save you if you are that sick already.

    A certain % of young people die when they eat a single shrimp. A few even die when they get a whiff of a platter of steaming shrimp pass their table. It's not a zero risk. If you were to see them in anaphylactic shock, it's horrifying. Their airways narrow, blocking breathing and they choke to death. It's tragic. The question is, is it a serious risk , a large risk, or not? For those already in anaphylactic shock the risk is extremely high, but this is looking at the wrong end of the telescope.

    Here is the fatality rate in S. Korea:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105088/south-korea-coronavirus-mortality-rate-by-age/

    It range from .1% in to 30 to 39 group (999 out 1000 infected will survive) to 18.86% (8/10 infected will survive) in the 80+ group (they don't even bother to measure under 30's because it's so low - essentially zero). Or in other words the risk to 80+ year olds is almost 200x greater than to a 30-39 year old. There's a big, big difference.

    Keep in mind that if you are over 80 and in at least average health for your age, you STILL have a very good chance. It's not a death sentence by any means. Some simple criteria would refine that even further - 80 year old without major comorbidity - maybe 90% survival. Those with, only 70% survival (made up numbers).

  42. Steve, I don’t think this is as random as you may perceive.
    A high carbohydrate and calorie, nutrient deficient diet such as is common in the west causes metabolic syndrome. Inflammation follows from that state, in a complex feedback network within the body, whether made obvious by the degree of obesity or not. This inflammatory condition initiates many comorbidities and a decline in general health and immune function. In the U.S. for example, fully 88% of the population has metabolic dysfunction.
    The way to stay out of the intensive care units is to eat a low (ideally zero) carb, high fat diet – the one evolution has designed us for. See Dr. Paul Saladino’s work for details.

  43. 2,249 people in the UK in the ICU with respiratory disease. It’s really hard to know whether that is alarming or not without some context. How many people in the UK are in ICU with respiratory issues in a typical year?

  44. https://thinkingcriticalcare.com/2020/03/28/covid-clinical-discussion-w-cameron-kyle-sidell-nyc-ed-icu-doc-in-the-trenches-foamed/

    It’s not like buying/making a bunch of respirators are going to make this thing ok. It looks like something is going on besides normal ARDS (Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome).

  45. @Jonathan Mason
    Basically agree with Jack here. The phrase "very severe comorbitities" in not defined in the table above, but I assume it does not include important issues like whether the patient is a cigarette smoker or not.

    However, if you are in an ICU, you are in pretty bad shape going in, regardless of premorbid health.

    What is does show is that if you are older or debilitated, you are less likely to make it. Activities of daily living includes feeding, toileting, bathing, dressing, transferring (from bed), and continence (of urine or feces), so if you need help with any of the above and you are in ICU, you are probably a goner.

    Also note that if you have "advanced respiratory support" (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor, whereas if you are just getting "basic respiratory support" (positioning in bed with torso raised, oxygen via nasal cannula) then your chances are much better.

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    By the way, this also raised the question of whether ventilators pumping mechanisms cannot be reused when patients die, or is there also a shortage of the tubing and masks that must be disposed of when patient dies.

    Here's an interesting quote from The Guardian:

    Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, described how ventilators went from $25,000 to $45,000 “because we bid $25,000. California says, ‘I’ll give you $30,000’ and Illinois says, ‘I’ll give you $35,000’ and Florida says ‘I’ll give you $40,000. And then, Fema [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] gets involved and Fema starts bidding!

    “And now Fema is bidding on top of the 50! So Fema is driving up the price. What sense does this make? We’re literally bidding up the prices ourselves.”

    New York state is paying 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than five cents, $7.50 for masks that normally go for 50 cents, $2,795 for infusion pumps that normally cost half that, $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

    But isn't this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?

    The ridiculous prices do at least seem likely to motivate businesses to get into this market.

  46. @black sea

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

     

    I realize this may be dispiriting, but your comment put me in mind of the words of Blaise Pascal.

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”

    Yes! Indeed it is.

  47. @Dmitry
    "Lockdown" in the UK, is still quite weak, unfortunately. It is not known if this will be sufficient to reduce the rate of infection below 1 (if yes, then it will be very good news about the controllability of the epidemic).

    The behaviour of the public has been disobedient of directives for how people should behave during an epidemic.

    Situations you can see in supermarkets are a real disaster. Lots of people are touching things in supermarkets (including products), without wearing gloves. People talking to each other and talking to staff, people queuing for checkouts close together ignoring instructions to stand apart, and most people are without masks, let alone goggles. A minority proportion of people have been wearing disposable masks.

    And this behaviour includes a lot of nerdy looking demographics, who are probably professors, engineers, scientists, i.e. people who should understand the germ theory of disease. Moreover, there are old people with grey hair behaving like this despite their higher risk from this particular virus – without masks and goggles.

    And this behaviour includes a lot of nerdy looking demographics, who are probably professors, engineers, scientists, i.e. people who should understand the germ theory of disease. Moreover, there are old people with grey hair behaving like this despite their higher risk from this particular virus – without masks and goggles.

    Same here. Grandparents meeting with their grandchildren for totally non essential issues. Entire family units(grandma ~70, mom ~40 and grandson ~10) all going to the grocery store together. And ‘Jesus will protect me’.

    • Replies: @Daniel Williams

    Grandparents meeting with their grandchildren for totally non essential issues.
     
    Grandparents meeting with their grandchildren is an essential service.

    Some old people have accepted that they will die, and they wish to continue experiencing meaningful life until that happens. It’s hard for me to resent someone for feeling like that.

  48. Clearly no one ever wants to go to the ICU and, as everyone has said, by definition you’re in bad shape if you get there. But isn’t it important, if this information is to be used to fuel our psychological state, that we remember what we’re really worried about (or maybe way more worried about) is the probability of going into the ICU given all these factors (when we have, from the data, been given the probability in the reverse direction)?

    Different numbers and different distributions, I’d expect.

  49. And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3% because we don’t want to ever turn ANYONE away from a ventilator or take them off of it before they flatline.

    You have actually put your finger on an aspect of US culture that is not always understood by foreigners. Hence Americans are horrified that National Health Service patients in England might be denied hip or knee replacement surgery if they are morbidly obese on the grounds that they would derive no tangible benefit.

    Such a thing has never been heard of in the US where a 400-lbs bedbound person has no trouble getting a new hip or knee on Medicare.

    It is simply part of the culture–the shared values that no one ever questions.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    "Such a thing has never been heard of in the US where a 400-lbs bedbound person has no trouble getting a new hip or knee on Medicare."

    That's simply not true. My father is obese and they refuse him a hip replacement until he loses weight.His doctor, not Medicare.
  50. Lot says:
    @Lot
    Here’s some happy news from England to cheer everyone up:

    “ After Corbyn, UK Labour elects Keir Starmer, Zionist with Jewish wife, as leader”

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/keir-starmer-elected-uk-labour-chief-apologizes-to-jews-for-party-anti-semitism/

    More good news:

    NY daily deaths dropped yesterday
    Italian deaths Saturday lowest in 10 days
    Spain has third day of lower totals
    Bill Gates estimates US deaths will be “well short” of Trump’s 100k statement

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/05/bill-gates-coronavirus-pandemic-a-nightmare-scenario.html

    On the economic front, Chinese tax revenue data from February isn’t as bad as I’d expect: VAT down 19% and overall down 9%.

    Possible vaccine breakthrough: researchers in La Jolla are looking for people who fully recovered from CV to donate blood to further their research:

    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/science/story/2020-04-03/scripps-research-find-evidence-of-an-anchilles-heel

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    'Bill Gates estimates US deaths will be “well short” of Trump’s 100k statement'

    There goes President Literally Hitler lying to us again.
  51. @Jonathan Mason
    Basically agree with Jack here. The phrase "very severe comorbitities" in not defined in the table above, but I assume it does not include important issues like whether the patient is a cigarette smoker or not.

    However, if you are in an ICU, you are in pretty bad shape going in, regardless of premorbid health.

    What is does show is that if you are older or debilitated, you are less likely to make it. Activities of daily living includes feeding, toileting, bathing, dressing, transferring (from bed), and continence (of urine or feces), so if you need help with any of the above and you are in ICU, you are probably a goner.

    Also note that if you have "advanced respiratory support" (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor, whereas if you are just getting "basic respiratory support" (positioning in bed with torso raised, oxygen via nasal cannula) then your chances are much better.

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    By the way, this also raised the question of whether ventilators pumping mechanisms cannot be reused when patients die, or is there also a shortage of the tubing and masks that must be disposed of when patient dies.

    Here's an interesting quote from The Guardian:

    Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, described how ventilators went from $25,000 to $45,000 “because we bid $25,000. California says, ‘I’ll give you $30,000’ and Illinois says, ‘I’ll give you $35,000’ and Florida says ‘I’ll give you $40,000. And then, Fema [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] gets involved and Fema starts bidding!

    “And now Fema is bidding on top of the 50! So Fema is driving up the price. What sense does this make? We’re literally bidding up the prices ourselves.”

    New York state is paying 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than five cents, $7.50 for masks that normally go for 50 cents, $2,795 for infusion pumps that normally cost half that, $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

    But isn't this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?

    To an extent, price gouging discourages hoarding.

    If you pay $80 for a bottle of hand sanitizer you either need it really bad or you plan to sell it to someone who needs it worse. You probably won’t just keep it in the pantry.

    Maybe this logic doesn’t apply to government entities though.

  52. anon[387] • Disclaimer says:

    As far as I can tell, only 1/4 to 1/5 of the severely ill people who are hospitalized become critical and are intubated. Those that aren’t get oxygen as needed. Plus, their vital signs are monitored and presumably they do better than people at home, who are on their own.

    As such, it is the severely ill that are the causing the catastrophic resource problem. If we skipped the final ICU phase, we would still have the problem. The hospitals aren’t filing with hypochondriacs any more than the prisons are filled with pot smokers.

    The figures on hospital admissions vs capacity hasn’t been a primary focus, but seem to be the what drives the decisions on this. Like it or not, we have already shut down and getting this under control will be necessary to open up again.

  53. @Lugash

    And this behaviour includes a lot of nerdy looking demographics, who are probably professors, engineers, scientists, i.e. people who should understand the germ theory of disease. Moreover, there are old people with grey hair behaving like this despite their higher risk from this particular virus – without masks and goggles.
     
    Same here. Grandparents meeting with their grandchildren for totally non essential issues. Entire family units(grandma ~70, mom ~40 and grandson ~10) all going to the grocery store together. And 'Jesus will protect me'.

    Grandparents meeting with their grandchildren for totally non essential issues.

    Grandparents meeting with their grandchildren is an essential service.

    Some old people have accepted that they will die, and they wish to continue experiencing meaningful life until that happens. It’s hard for me to resent someone for feeling like that.

    • Agree: Hibernian
  54. What counts as co-morbidities? Does smoking count as one, or only diagnosed illnesses? You can smoke for forty years and you don’t have empysema in any official sense, right up to the day your doctor writes “emphysema” on your chart. But your lungs were just as impaired the day before your diagnosis as the day after (I mean other than that pack you smoked right after the doc told you that you had emphysema).

  55. @Jonathan Mason
    Basically agree with Jack here. The phrase "very severe comorbitities" in not defined in the table above, but I assume it does not include important issues like whether the patient is a cigarette smoker or not.

    However, if you are in an ICU, you are in pretty bad shape going in, regardless of premorbid health.

    What is does show is that if you are older or debilitated, you are less likely to make it. Activities of daily living includes feeding, toileting, bathing, dressing, transferring (from bed), and continence (of urine or feces), so if you need help with any of the above and you are in ICU, you are probably a goner.

    Also note that if you have "advanced respiratory support" (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor, whereas if you are just getting "basic respiratory support" (positioning in bed with torso raised, oxygen via nasal cannula) then your chances are much better.

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    By the way, this also raised the question of whether ventilators pumping mechanisms cannot be reused when patients die, or is there also a shortage of the tubing and masks that must be disposed of when patient dies.

    Here's an interesting quote from The Guardian:

    Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, described how ventilators went from $25,000 to $45,000 “because we bid $25,000. California says, ‘I’ll give you $30,000’ and Illinois says, ‘I’ll give you $35,000’ and Florida says ‘I’ll give you $40,000. And then, Fema [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] gets involved and Fema starts bidding!

    “And now Fema is bidding on top of the 50! So Fema is driving up the price. What sense does this make? We’re literally bidding up the prices ourselves.”

    New York state is paying 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than five cents, $7.50 for masks that normally go for 50 cents, $2,795 for infusion pumps that normally cost half that, $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

    But isn't this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?

    In the paper itself they list and break down the comorbidities that are considered “very severe”:

    Very severe comorbidities*, n (%) [N=540]
    Cardiovascular
    Respiratory
    Renal
    Liver
    Metastatic disease
    Haematological malignancy
    Immunocompromise

    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    It doesn't help to list some organs, because the relevant question is how severe the renal, liver etc. disease has to be to increase risk for COVID-19. A big share of the population has medical problems with at least on of the named organs.
  56. You are reading it right. Studies like this have been available since January. I sold my house and stocks when I read a similar study published by Wuhan doctors. Their death rate for critical patients was 61% and (despite what endless “just the flu!” or “what about people who don’t go to hospital!” idiots) the data left out a lot of dead or soon to be dead people. This study does the same – but it does point that out more clearly.

    I have also noticed that people that have experienced a tough period or tragedy in their life seem to have more of a clue about what is happening. It is not IQ based.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    I've experienced some tough times medically and also some tough times financially, as have a lot of people. I'm a senior citizen and somewhat vulnerable; I'm also employed and would like to stay that way for a while longer. I think I can see both sides of this. I'd also, if I'm lucky enough to live another 15 years or longer, like to spend those years not observing the utter and complete collapse of Western Civilization. Don't tell me health vs. wealth.
  57. In the paper it shows a higher rate of death than for other viral pneumonia in recent years but they also caution correctly that you can’t yet draw a conclusion because this is only for ICU patients who have had an outcome (death or release) and since we are currently on the upward slope and that someone who was admitted 3 days ago and died is counted but someone who was admitted 3 days ago and is still in the ICU and may survive is not.

    Also note that although this epidemic is serious and dangerous, it’s not an order of magnitude worse than previous viral pneumonias. This could change.

  58. @Jonathan Mason
    Basically agree with Jack here. The phrase "very severe comorbitities" in not defined in the table above, but I assume it does not include important issues like whether the patient is a cigarette smoker or not.

    However, if you are in an ICU, you are in pretty bad shape going in, regardless of premorbid health.

    What is does show is that if you are older or debilitated, you are less likely to make it. Activities of daily living includes feeding, toileting, bathing, dressing, transferring (from bed), and continence (of urine or feces), so if you need help with any of the above and you are in ICU, you are probably a goner.

    Also note that if you have "advanced respiratory support" (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor, whereas if you are just getting "basic respiratory support" (positioning in bed with torso raised, oxygen via nasal cannula) then your chances are much better.

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    By the way, this also raised the question of whether ventilators pumping mechanisms cannot be reused when patients die, or is there also a shortage of the tubing and masks that must be disposed of when patient dies.

    Here's an interesting quote from The Guardian:

    Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, described how ventilators went from $25,000 to $45,000 “because we bid $25,000. California says, ‘I’ll give you $30,000’ and Illinois says, ‘I’ll give you $35,000’ and Florida says ‘I’ll give you $40,000. And then, Fema [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] gets involved and Fema starts bidding!

    “And now Fema is bidding on top of the 50! So Fema is driving up the price. What sense does this make? We’re literally bidding up the prices ourselves.”

    New York state is paying 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than five cents, $7.50 for masks that normally go for 50 cents, $2,795 for infusion pumps that normally cost half that, $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

    But isn't this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?

    “But isn’t this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?”

    In a f—- pandemic? NO. The federal and state governments during this NATIONAL crisis should NOT be bidding against one another. Rather, there should be cooperation and mutual aid, as promised by Trump. Recall that FDR set the production and distribution of materials during World War II, converted peacetime industries to meet the demands of war–which we are in!–and rationed scarce supplies.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.
  59. @Jack D

    Also note that if you have “advanced respiratory support” (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor,
     
    This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced. We are used to a system where, if you are in respiratory distress you get ventilated in order to "give you a chance". You might not even want to be ventilated but unless someone in your family fights really hard (and maybe even not then) they are going to ventilate you anyway.

    The doctors and the hospitals don't worry about what your "chance" is. ANY chance is considered better than just letting you die. Doctors want to save people, not kill them. Hospitals make money off of ICUs. Families sometimes want to keep grandma around even if she lives in the nursing home and they don't visit as often as they should because she no longer recognizes them and they just know if they pray hard there will be a miracle and grandma will be saved. "Rationing" is a dirt word - everyone should get all you can eat health care even if the chances that it will really help you are tiny.

    But, if you really pressed doctors into predicting who is going to come off of that ventilator and who isn't, they would be able to tell you with a fairly high degree of certainty. Yes, there might be some miracles where 2 or 3% of the ICU patients predicted not to make it ended up making it. And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3% because we don't want to ever turn ANYONE away from a ventilator or take them off of it before they flatline.

    "Rationing" really wouldn't be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance. But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren't getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.

    “This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced.”

    Tell that to state governors, hospital staff, but more importantly, the patients and their family.

    “Rationing” really wouldn’t be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance.”

    Right, which the Trump Administration is NOT meeting its promise.

    “But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.”

    Right. #DieForTheDow

    • Replies: @Jack D
    At what point should they take you off - when you have a 1% chance of survival, a .1% chance, a .01% chance? 1 in a million? Does the family's answer change if they are personally paying the cost? It's easy to be generous with other people's money - it's a Democrat specialty in fact.
    , @TomSchmidt
    “But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.”

    Right. #DieForTheDow


    Despite your puerile sloganeering, you ignored the commenter's logic. In this world, ventilators are scarce. That's not going to change immediately. It's plausible that someone who will not be saved by using a ventilator is occupying one, blocking someone with a better chance. Your insistence is that that latter person die, which you don't want to explicitly say. Essentially, "I got here first and I got mine, Jack". Let's call it:

    #DieForTheQueue.
    , @Stan d Mute
    Every time I see “corvinus” I read “coronavirus” and vice-versa. Maybe it’s my strong urge for social distancing?
  60. @Jack D

    Also note that if you have “advanced respiratory support” (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor,
     
    This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced. We are used to a system where, if you are in respiratory distress you get ventilated in order to "give you a chance". You might not even want to be ventilated but unless someone in your family fights really hard (and maybe even not then) they are going to ventilate you anyway.

    The doctors and the hospitals don't worry about what your "chance" is. ANY chance is considered better than just letting you die. Doctors want to save people, not kill them. Hospitals make money off of ICUs. Families sometimes want to keep grandma around even if she lives in the nursing home and they don't visit as often as they should because she no longer recognizes them and they just know if they pray hard there will be a miracle and grandma will be saved. "Rationing" is a dirt word - everyone should get all you can eat health care even if the chances that it will really help you are tiny.

    But, if you really pressed doctors into predicting who is going to come off of that ventilator and who isn't, they would be able to tell you with a fairly high degree of certainty. Yes, there might be some miracles where 2 or 3% of the ICU patients predicted not to make it ended up making it. And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3% because we don't want to ever turn ANYONE away from a ventilator or take them off of it before they flatline.

    "Rationing" really wouldn't be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance. But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren't getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.

    And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3%

    I heard on a Wall Street conference call a guy say that GDP will be down 24% this year and the recovery will be a U-shaped curve, not a V-shaped one. All this over what increasing looks to me as “just” a really bad flu. YMMV.

    • Agree: Hibernian
  61. The death toll is almost certainly massively underreported.

    First, if we accept the Wuhan death toll, we would have to believe the Chinese weren’t trying to underplay she numbers. Some have estimated over 40,000 unexplained deaths. But those bodies have been cremated, so no proof.

    In Italy, the excess number of people dying was far greater than the reported Coronavirus deaths.

    In the US, it has been established that there are quite a few false negatives, not to mention people who died before being tested. Quite a few deaths by respiratory disease not reported as Coronavirus.

    My wife is a health care worker. She treated an unusual number of patients with respiratory symptoms who were never tested for Coronavirus.

    Sorry, but the people trying to downplay this as people who would have died anyway doesn’t work. Of course everyone dies sometime. But these are people who are dying years, or even decades, before their time. There is at least one recorded death by Coronavirus of a newborn baby.

    • Agree: Bardon Kaldian
    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    The death toll is almost certainly massively underreported.
     
    Oh please.

    No doubt they've missed a few upfront when the testing was a mess. But you, i even the cats and dogs know all the politics pushes the other way.

    They aren't short of testing now. Any death that's Wuhan virus positive will be a covid-19 death and probably any respiratory death that looks like it will get tossed in as well.
    , @keypusher
    Chinese underestimation: here is a blog post discussing a paper arguing that, as of Feb. 8, the number of infections worldwide was not very large (55,800, with a 95% confidence interval from 17,500 to 194,400), and therefore the official Chinese statistics, though they are no doubt imperfect, are probably not wildly off. The basis for the argument is that, judging from an analysis of 53 coronavirus genomes, the virus is not as mutated as you would expect if it had spread through a much larger number of people. I'm not competent to evaluate the argument, but it's being advanced (though not endorsed) by competent people. There is some pushback in the comments, some of it also sounding pretty well informed.

    https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/04/04/perhaps-the-chinese-government-is-not-covering-up-the-number-of-covid-19-cases/

    As far as the covid death/infection counts, there are factors pushing them toward being too high, identified by @AnotherDad, and factors pushing them toward being too low, identified by you. I have a couple of friends who I'm pretty confident had coronavirus, but they never got so bad that they had to be hospitalized, and neither was tested, so they don't show up in the statistics. On the other hand the coding for covid as cause of death is aggressive, and as more people are tested, more infections are found.

    What I suspect is the most valuable statistic at the moment is corona hospitalizations...which have been relatively stable in New York over the past 10 days or so, according to the city website. I think the city may be at its apex for hospitalizations, though probably not for deaths.

  62. Anon[259] • Disclaimer says:

    I have been looking for papers that indicate whether having latent tuberculosis increases your percentage of ACE 2 receptors, but it appears no one has done any research on it. Unfortunately, this may be the most important factor of all in Covid-19, now that it looks like there’s a latent tuberculosis and Covid-19 connection.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033795v1

    We need more TB testing in Covid-19 patients, and more a lot more research.

    By the way, Cuomo has reported that new hospitalizations in New York dropped today. Italy and Spain have also reported a drop in their death rates:

    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/04/05/Italy-Spain-record-much-lower-rises-in-coronavirus-deaths-global-toll-68000/3711586095776/?sl=1

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    "In Italy, the excess number of people dying was far greater than the reported Coronavirus deaths."

    Are you suggesting that the Italian government has underreported deaths? According to Euromomo, they report over 95% of actual deaths within 7 days.

    Check the charts here, derived not from models but actual data:
    http://www.euromomo.eu/

    Spain is still below three winters ago. The Netherlands, pursuing herd immunity, has no increase over normal. Sweden, with no lockdown, has no excess deaths.

    "Sorry, but the people trying to downplay this as people who would have died anyway doesn’t work."
    What about the data that do that? Do you reject those as well?

    And remember this: if Corona kills in 28 days from date of infection, none of the European countries have locked down more than 28 days ago. Any drops in deaths, as seen in Italy starting March 27, only 17 days after lockdown, cannot be due to the lockdown.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
  63. @Jonathan Mason
    Basically agree with Jack here. The phrase "very severe comorbitities" in not defined in the table above, but I assume it does not include important issues like whether the patient is a cigarette smoker or not.

    However, if you are in an ICU, you are in pretty bad shape going in, regardless of premorbid health.

    What is does show is that if you are older or debilitated, you are less likely to make it. Activities of daily living includes feeding, toileting, bathing, dressing, transferring (from bed), and continence (of urine or feces), so if you need help with any of the above and you are in ICU, you are probably a goner.

    Also note that if you have "advanced respiratory support" (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor, whereas if you are just getting "basic respiratory support" (positioning in bed with torso raised, oxygen via nasal cannula) then your chances are much better.

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

    By the way, this also raised the question of whether ventilators pumping mechanisms cannot be reused when patients die, or is there also a shortage of the tubing and masks that must be disposed of when patient dies.

    Here's an interesting quote from The Guardian:

    Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, described how ventilators went from $25,000 to $45,000 “because we bid $25,000. California says, ‘I’ll give you $30,000’ and Illinois says, ‘I’ll give you $35,000’ and Florida says ‘I’ll give you $40,000. And then, Fema [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] gets involved and Fema starts bidding!

    “And now Fema is bidding on top of the 50! So Fema is driving up the price. What sense does this make? We’re literally bidding up the prices ourselves.”

    New York state is paying 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than five cents, $7.50 for masks that normally go for 50 cents, $2,795 for infusion pumps that normally cost half that, $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

    But isn't this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?

    Don’t you know that the free market is the best of all possible economic systems? Don’t you know that nothing is better than the free market? Don’t you know that, no matter how many people die, as long as there is still a totally free market, then everything is alright. The free market works for everything.

  64. OT: Doctors in China are testing Viagra as a treatment for COVID-19.

    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-05/viagra-discovery-could-treat-coronavirus-patients

    • LOL: BB753
    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    Well.

    There seems to be an increase in the number of divorces in couples quarantining together.

    Maybe this could help both Coronavirus and some of these marriages.
    , @HA
    "OT: Doctors in China are testing Viagra as a treatment for COVID-19."

    Meanwhile, practitioners of traditional Chinese "medicine" are also hard at work ridding the world of this pestilence:

    China is encouraging herbal remedies to treat COVID-19.

    How long before they decide a little bat soup -- as in "hair of the dog" is the secret ingredient that makes this cure bulletproof? I mean, you can't let some silly wet-market prohibition stand in the way of people obtaining their traditional medicine, right? That would be inhumane, and also racist. Don't forget racist.

    And then, once they package it up, how much longer before Gwynneth Paltrow starts offering $600 vials of the stuff on her website? (In an effort to get rid of "excess inventory" I bet she'll even be able to toss in a couple of vaginal eggs, if you order within the next 24 hours.)

  65. @PiltdownMan

    But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.
     
    I spent 2 weeks in an ICU in 1972, at age 14, with lower lung pneumonia, a complication that developed on top of asthma and what began as a bad chest cold. Though I was strong and fit as a fiddle before I got sick, it was a truly nasty experience, and I was wobbly and well below par for the next six months, even as a teenager.

    I’ll confess, I’m terrified of this damn thing.

    People who have never struggled to breathe have no idea of how terrifying it is.

    I’m with you. I’m terrified of getting this disease.

    As far as I’m concerned, anyone who flouts the social distancing/self isolation guidelines is no better than a drunk driver. Both choose to put their own lives and the lives of others at risk for needlessly selfish reasons.

    • Replies: @UK
    All respiratory doctors know, a lot of people are especially scared of symptoms that mirror panic attacks.

    Personally, when I am extremely stressed I am more likely to hold my breath on purpose and not breath. I almost find it comforting, so the symptoms of Chinavirus don't put special fear into me.

    Those who have nightmares of drowning etc. will be particularly prone to panic over this stuff.
    , @TomSchmidt
    Actually, my walking about freely CANNOT put your life at risk, secure in your locked down bunker. If you choose to go out, you take the consequences. Isn't that how mature adults treat each other?

    By contrast, someone who is feverish or symptomatic who goes out is a like a drunk driver, even if he infects no one, and should suffer penalties.

    By the way, do you agree that moms who send sick kids to school should suffer the same sort of social opprobrium? Drunk drivers go to jail. It'd be nice if we could learn from COVID to at least scorn people who knowingly put others at risk
  66. @HA
    OT: Doctors in China are testing Viagra as a treatment for COVID-19.

    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-05/viagra-discovery-could-treat-coronavirus-patients

    Well.

    There seems to be an increase in the number of divorces in couples quarantining together.

    Maybe this could help both Coronavirus and some of these marriages.

    • LOL: Daniel Williams
    • Replies: @Anon
    Laughing here. Fear of God should help a baby boom, though
    “ If this be error, and upon me proved,
    Then I never writ, nor no man ever loved.”
    , @HA
    "Maybe this could help both Coronavirus and some of these marriages."

    I suspect this all has more to do with the marriages -- or impending divorces -- of the researchers involved in this study.
  67. There’s certainly a lot of whistling past the graveyard: Corona kills the old and sick, but it won’t get me.

    But then there’s this:
    https://www.aier.org/article/what-does-the-growing-number-of-coronavirus-cases-really-mean/

    “Perhaps my interpretation of it is overly pessimistic.”
    Either Corona is very infectious and not too deadly, or very deadly and not too infectious. Or, neither; but the numbers say it cannot be both.

  68. Meanwhile, in Zimbabwe….

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hIuryZ8JUJM
  69. The sky is falling, the sky is falling. I don’t believe any official statistics and information about the Chinese virus from any country, province county city or medical center.

    As for infectious ICUs I was in an ICU for 6 weeks and didn’t catch any diseases. I was in a private ICU room. That may have helped but the constantly in and out medics weren’t masked gloved and gowned. Plus it was a teaching hospital so I was hostess to hordes of ortho & surgery residents plus interns and med students several times a day.

    Some say I’m just too cynical and racist. Some say every opinion and fact I’ve ever mentioned is absolutely right.

    There’s an interesting thread on conservativetreehouse. Title is something like “ On the ground healthcare focus What’s going on in your city or neighborhood?” Comments include medics noting they’re out of work and can’t pay next months bills for their clinics and practices because of the no elective procedures rules. Lots of elective procedures aren’t really elective. They need to be done. Not immediately but in the near future.

    . Completely different prospective from the media hysteria. Well worth reading

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    Once about 7 years ago when i was in the hospital for soething serious I had, one morning, somewhere between 5 and 10 medical students gathered around me, led by their professor. he asked me a few questions and I answered. How much could they have learned? was it worth the aggravation? (My aggravation)
    , @moshe
    "WHAT IS HAPPENING IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD?"

    Where is there a website of normal people whi can inform the public and be informed by them about what is happening in waxh and every area?

    The media is untrustworthy.

    And the non-media writers are mainly folk who LOVE quarantines and haven't left their closet-office in 6 months anyway.

    Where are threads where people report NOT what they heard or read about -(even if it's about people they have some vague connection to) but what they KNOW about themselves, their neighborhoods, and people close enough to them that they actually talk to them. Close enough, that they spoke to them even before this whole coronavirus hysteria.

    The moods and preferences of "type-not-talk" Agoraphobes what to be taken into account when reading them.
  70. One thing I’ve been wondering about is if there isn’t a statistical approach to get some sense of what the values of R0 before and after restrictions might be, based on the various curves we see.

    Couldn’t one construct a simple model of R0 before and after restrictions which would produce these various metrics — hospitalization, ICU, death — and see which ranges of values of R0 match up best with what we see empirically?

    Isn’t it possible to use a maximum likelihood estimator approach to do this?

    Looking by eye for slight bends in the curve seems pretty primitive.

    • Agree: res
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    Given what we have seen with asymptomaticinfection, and the authorities' 14 day quarantine for exposed people, it's reasonable to assume the average from infection to deaths is something like 28 days. Essentially ALL the deaths now are from pre-lockdown infections.

    So there'd better be a severe kink 28 days after Cuomo torpedoed the NYeconomy, budget, and bond rating. The drop in deaths now, (he just announced we had a statewide drop today) less than 3 weeks after the March 18/20 full shutdown, cannot be due to decreased infections from the shutdown.

    I'd love to see a fuller explication on this point.

    , @candid_observer
    If nothing else, it should be possible to run a set of simulations under various assumptions for the value of R0 (and perhaps various assumptions about distributions of time to hospitalization, time to ICU, time to death) and get a sense of what sort of curves we might expect to see, and see how the actual curves fit into these models.

    If nothing else, we could see whether we are overinterpreting these actual curves for signs of reduction; perhaps we can't have anything like confidence until we get further out in the curve.

    As it is, we're really just making blind "intuitive" guesses.

    , @SFG
    If you get the actual numbers you can divide one day by the day before and estimate the doubling time and see if it goes up or down. With more than two days you can take the logarithm and fit a regression line. Of course, the fewer days you use the noisier your data.
  71. @Paleo Liberal
    Well.

    There seems to be an increase in the number of divorces in couples quarantining together.

    Maybe this could help both Coronavirus and some of these marriages.

    Laughing here. Fear of God should help a baby boom, though
    “ If this be error, and upon me proved,
    Then I never writ, nor no man ever loved.”

  72. @black sea

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

     

    I realize this may be dispiriting, but your comment put me in mind of the words of Blaise Pascal.

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”

    I guess that really is the human condition, stuff like this virus just make it less easy to ignore, like we do most of the time.

    It’s not the pig condition though. I have a farmer brother in law how raises pigs, though he isn’t a pig farmer, he does it on the side, and raises about a dozen of them every year, slaughtering them in October. Very good bacon. When he slaughters them though, he just puts an apple on the ground, they come over, one at a time as he lets them and he uses a special kind of pistol at pops them behind the ear. Then he puts down more apple for the next one, right next to the previous one, who watched the whole thing, who sprints off to the bait when it’s his turn. Pigs don’t get death. Some people say elephants get it, but other than that possibility, only humans understand death.

    • Disagree: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Pericles
    Or he might have bred really dumb pigs. Wild animals are a bit less, um, sanguine about being killed. (Including wild pigs, I'd like to note. Pests.)
  73. @Corvinus
    "This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced."

    Tell that to state governors, hospital staff, but more importantly, the patients and their family.

    “Rationing” really wouldn’t be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance."

    Right, which the Trump Administration is NOT meeting its promise.

    "But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable."

    Right. #DieForTheDow

    At what point should they take you off – when you have a 1% chance of survival, a .1% chance, a .01% chance? 1 in a million? Does the family’s answer change if they are personally paying the cost? It’s easy to be generous with other people’s money – it’s a Democrat specialty in fact.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "At what point should they take you off – when you have a 1% chance of survival, a .1% chance, a .01% chance? 1 in a million?"

    That's for the medical professionals to decide. You seemingly would be willing to pull the plug just to save money.

    "Does the family’s answer change if they are personally paying the cost?"

    They most likely have insurance, right?

    "It’s easy to be generous with other people’s money – it’s a Democrat specialty in fact."

    You mean it's a Democrat AND Republican speciality in fact.
  74. @candid_observer
    One thing I've been wondering about is if there isn't a statistical approach to get some sense of what the values of R0 before and after restrictions might be, based on the various curves we see.

    Couldn't one construct a simple model of R0 before and after restrictions which would produce these various metrics -- hospitalization, ICU, death -- and see which ranges of values of R0 match up best with what we see empirically?

    Isn't it possible to use a maximum likelihood estimator approach to do this?

    Looking by eye for slight bends in the curve seems pretty primitive.

    Given what we have seen with asymptomaticinfection, and the authorities’ 14 day quarantine for exposed people, it’s reasonable to assume the average from infection to deaths is something like 28 days. Essentially ALL the deaths now are from pre-lockdown infections.

    So there’d better be a severe kink 28 days after Cuomo torpedoed the NYeconomy, budget, and bond rating. The drop in deaths now, (he just announced we had a statewide drop today) less than 3 weeks after the March 18/20 full shutdown, cannot be due to decreased infections from the shutdown.

    I’d love to see a fuller explication on this point.

    • Agree: Sean
    • Replies: @res
    Ron Unz and I are discussing that right now. I think the the infection-death period is closer to 14 days which would make the NY drop now align with the shutdown. It would also make the Louisiana dramatic change in growth rate for deaths (36% per day to 18%) better align with their state of emergency (a 17 day lag).

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/americas-coronavirus-peak/#comment-3818339
  75. UK says:
    @Kylie
    People who have never struggled to breathe have no idea of how terrifying it is.

    I'm with you. I'm terrified of getting this disease.

    As far as I'm concerned, anyone who flouts the social distancing/self isolation guidelines is no better than a drunk driver. Both choose to put their own lives and the lives of others at risk for needlessly selfish reasons.

    All respiratory doctors know, a lot of people are especially scared of symptoms that mirror panic attacks.

    Personally, when I am extremely stressed I am more likely to hold my breath on purpose and not breath. I almost find it comforting, so the symptoms of Chinavirus don’t put special fear into me.

    Those who have nightmares of drowning etc. will be particularly prone to panic over this stuff.

    • Replies: @Kylie
    I went to the ER during allergy season with breathing trouble, not a panic attack. I know the difference because I've been diagnosed with both*.

    My trip to the ER was the result of a plug of mucous so thick it partially blocked my airway. I waa finally able to dislodge it by coughing. That's what scares me--producing mucous so thick that it impairs my breathing and can't be readily dislodged. I'd rather have a panic attack any day.


    *Panic attacks can be controlled with a breathing technique that's simple and effective. And they can be overcome by confronting whatever trauma has caused you to feel you've lost control of your life. In my case, it was years of life-threatening domestic violence. It's been thirty years since I had one.

  76. @Jack D
    This really tells you very little because in order to be placed in an ICU you have to be very sick to begin with. The people who get put in there of all ages are roughly equally sick when they go in (but the younger ones still have somewhat better outcomes).

    But maybe (made up numbers) 1 in 5 of 80 year olds with Wuhan Virus are going into the ICU and 1 in 30 20 year olds. The mean age of the UK population is 40, the mean age of this population is 60 so clearly it skews much older.

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts - the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years, the middle cohort is 50-69 which is 19 years but the latter cohort has more than twice as many people in it. On a % of population basis, it's probably 4x. To really clearly present the data there should have been equal # of year age groups = 0-19,20-39, etc.

    But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.

    Only 1 in 50 under 30 year olds infected need any kind of hospital treatment. That is likely a massive overestimate.

    Over the last three months in a Bergamo suburb called Nembro, three-quarters of the population are known to have been infected and 0.8 percent of the population seem to have died a COVID-19 related death (this is including all the excess deaths of those who passed away at home undiagnosed with COVID-19). The rationale for the lockdown originally was stopping too many getting seriously ill at one time and thus have all cause deaths skyrocket because treatment had become unobtainable as the medical services and hospitals became clogged up and overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. Never that with a lockdown we could stop people from dying of COVID-19 that would have died even with the best treatment once they were exposed to the pathogen. But that is what is begining to be implied that testing and lockdown will do. This is the spectre of Dread Risk and it will prevent exit from the lockdown even once it has become established it wouldn’t overwhelm the hospitals.

    One in four men in Glasgow will die before his sixty-fifth birthday by stroke, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer. Considering cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction, its not looking good for Scotland, but Russia, where men die from alcohol poisoning so young there are fewer lame ducks/ low hanging fruit for COVID-19, may come out relatively well.

    The government can conscript young men (conceivably women) into the army and send then off to die abroad in order that national power is maintained. Often it is the most intelligent selfless and valuable men who die without reproducing. Something similar in the twilight of life seems hardly less just. Those who would be at most risk of dying younger are the very same ones who ignored official advice not to smoke, drink and overeat. A vaccine is required for COVID-19 to end the lockdown without a tranche of COVID-19 deaths, but although the pathogen (SARS-CoV-2) does not mutate as much as the flu virus, a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 is not going to be ready for use for months no matter what resources they throw at it. And so they are talking about an all-ages lockdown continuing for months, which in a modern just-in-time supply chain economy is impossible without irreversible economic damage.

    Continuing the full lockdown past a month is surely into the realm of where back-to-normal is not going to mean that. Medical services have to be paid for with economic activity and if that ceases the treatment will have to be rationed. This is not COVID-19 hospital overwhelm for a limited time I am talking about, but a depression without precedent in which there will be health care rationing never before seen, and continuing for decades. In that case, rely on it, the death toll will be huge.

    • Agree: Jack D, Charon, Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @SFG
    Then maybe the just-in-time supply chain is part of the problem. What did we do before that?
  77. @Kylie
    People who have never struggled to breathe have no idea of how terrifying it is.

    I'm with you. I'm terrified of getting this disease.

    As far as I'm concerned, anyone who flouts the social distancing/self isolation guidelines is no better than a drunk driver. Both choose to put their own lives and the lives of others at risk for needlessly selfish reasons.

    Actually, my walking about freely CANNOT put your life at risk, secure in your locked down bunker. If you choose to go out, you take the consequences. Isn’t that how mature adults treat each other?

    By contrast, someone who is feverish or symptomatic who goes out is a like a drunk driver, even if he infects no one, and should suffer penalties.

    By the way, do you agree that moms who send sick kids to school should suffer the same sort of social opprobrium? Drunk drivers go to jail. It’d be nice if we could learn from COVID to at least scorn people who knowingly put others at risk

    • Replies: @moshe
    EXACTLY RIGHT.

    Sick people who go to work should be beaten if they could have used a Sick Day. If their job did not afford them one then their boss should be beaten.

    Healthy people however have every eamn right to walk around outdoors and it is VERY LITERALLY CRIMINAL TO THE LAWS OF GOD AND MAN for the government to stop it inder threat of being placed in a cage where one is nearly guaranteed to become sick.

    SHAME ON ALMOST EVERYONE FOR SUPPORTING THE GOVERNMENT'S RIGHT TO RESTRICT THE MOVEMENT OF IT'S CITY'S CITIZENS WITHIN THEIR OWN CITIES.

    I don't mind voluntary isolations. I mind POLICE ENFORCED isolations.

    And I mind MORE , all of the penisless masses who support, encourage and beg for more such police enforcements.
    , @but an humble craftsman

    It’d be nice if we could learn from COVID to at least scorn people who knowingly put others at risk
     
    Indeed.
    I did not see my father for six months prior to his death because a friend came to stay with me knowing he had the flu. My father had fibrosis of the lungs having suffered from viral pneumonia two years earlier, so I decided to stay away.
  78. Anon[259] • Disclaimer says:

    Beer pong game spread Covid-19 virus at ski resort in Tyrol. The beer pong mention is about half way down. “The game involved spitting ping pong balls out of their mouths into beer glasses, and those balls were then reused by other people.” Blech.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html

    I’ve been seeing mentions that Covid-19 doesn’t seem to be airborne, just spread by droplets. I wonder what percentage of party-goers have shown up with Covid-19 so far compared to the stay-at-home introverts?

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    It seems that authorities in Ischgl, where the problem was kept under wrap, have their fair share of blame for clusters of corona infections as far away as Iceland.
  79. @Dmitry
    "Lockdown" in the UK, is still quite weak, unfortunately. It is not known if this will be sufficient to reduce the rate of infection below 1 (if yes, then it will be very good news about the controllability of the epidemic).

    The behaviour of the public has been disobedient of directives for how people should behave during an epidemic.

    Situations you can see in supermarkets are a real disaster. Lots of people are touching things in supermarkets (including products), without wearing gloves. People talking to each other and talking to staff, people queuing for checkouts close together ignoring instructions to stand apart, and most people are without masks, let alone goggles. A minority proportion of people have been wearing disposable masks.

    And this behaviour includes a lot of nerdy looking demographics, who are probably professors, engineers, scientists, i.e. people who should understand the germ theory of disease. Moreover, there are old people with grey hair behaving like this despite their higher risk from this particular virus – without masks and goggles.

    “Lockdown” in the UK, is still quite weak, unfortunately.

    It’s pretty strong in the rural area where I live, don’t know what it’s like in the cities, but pretty strong in the nearest large town too. Difficult to trust the former Paper Of Record ‘cos the Mail does like a good “aren’t these people awful” story.

    This is definitely not good though. If the Chief Medical Officer breaks the rules, how are other people going to follow them?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/05/scotland-chief-medical-officer-seen-flouting-lockdown-advice-catherine-calderwood

    Police have given Scotland’s chief medical officer, Catherine Calderwood, a formal warning about her conduct after she visited her second home in Fife in breach of her own advice to avoid travel.

    Calderwood was forced to apologise after being pictured on Saturday with her family taking a walk with their dog through the East Neuk, a picturesque area of Fife on the Firth of Forth, about 45 miles from her main home in Edinburgh.

    At the Scottish government’s daily coronavirus briefing on Sunday Calderwood admitted that she had also been to the property last weekend.

    Scottish government adverts are being shown on television this weekend where Calderwood says: “To help save lives, stay at home.”

    With Calderwood now under intense pressure to resign, Scotland’s chief constable, Iain Livingstone, said his officers had visited her at her main home in Edinburgh on Sunday morning and formally warned her about her breach of safety regulations.

  80. Generally, as you get older, you come out of a health crisis, even one of only a few months in duration, effectively 5 or 10 or 15 years older than you went into it.

    Beyond the first consideration of mortality rates of those exposed and age-graded estimates this point really gets my attention. Frankly, it sends a chill through me. The pace of aging does indeed seem, like evolution, prone to be punctuated by events. While exposure to this virus may pose, for let’s say some healthy fit upper-middle-age guy, a mere 1/1000 chance of death, it’s a much greater threat, god damn it, to be a hard cannon-strike to a barricade of vitality compulsively preserved to hold off senescence.

  81. Steve,years ago, when I was early forties, I contracted pericarditis, an infection in the sac that contains your heart. The heart beats in what is a vat of pus and the stress is like a heart attack. I was placed in ICU and recovered in two days to where I could be discharged to a room or to home. I chose home. The nurse whose job was to wheel me to the lobby pushed me around for a while and then said, “I am lost. Usually when you leave ICU you go a room or the morque.” Yikes.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That's a memorable anecdote for illustrating the point. Thanks.
  82. @Corvinus
    "This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced."

    Tell that to state governors, hospital staff, but more importantly, the patients and their family.

    “Rationing” really wouldn’t be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance."

    Right, which the Trump Administration is NOT meeting its promise.

    "But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable."

    Right. #DieForTheDow

    “But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.”

    Right. #DieForTheDow

    Despite your puerile sloganeering, you ignored the commenter’s logic. In this world, ventilators are scarce. That’s not going to change immediately. It’s plausible that someone who will not be saved by using a ventilator is occupying one, blocking someone with a better chance. Your insistence is that that latter person die, which you don’t want to explicitly say. Essentially, “I got here first and I got mine, Jack”. Let’s call it:

    #DieForTheQueue.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Despite your puerile sloganeering..."

    Replace "puerile" with "sensible" and you would be accurate.

    "Essentially, “I got here first and I got mine, Jack”. "

    Exactly why Trump is to blame. The ventilators are scarce now. They didn't have to be is the point. Do you want someone like Kushner in charge of the health of YOU or YOUR loved ones during this global pandemic?

  83. @Jack D

    Also note that if you have “advanced respiratory support” (intubation and mechanical ventilator) your chances of coming out alive are quite poor,
     
    This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced. We are used to a system where, if you are in respiratory distress you get ventilated in order to "give you a chance". You might not even want to be ventilated but unless someone in your family fights really hard (and maybe even not then) they are going to ventilate you anyway.

    The doctors and the hospitals don't worry about what your "chance" is. ANY chance is considered better than just letting you die. Doctors want to save people, not kill them. Hospitals make money off of ICUs. Families sometimes want to keep grandma around even if she lives in the nursing home and they don't visit as often as they should because she no longer recognizes them and they just know if they pray hard there will be a miracle and grandma will be saved. "Rationing" is a dirt word - everyone should get all you can eat health care even if the chances that it will really help you are tiny.

    But, if you really pressed doctors into predicting who is going to come off of that ventilator and who isn't, they would be able to tell you with a fairly high degree of certainty. Yes, there might be some miracles where 2 or 3% of the ICU patients predicted not to make it ended up making it. And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3% because we don't want to ever turn ANYONE away from a ventilator or take them off of it before they flatline.

    "Rationing" really wouldn't be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance. But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren't getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.

    Jack D: Never would have predicted I’d find your comments the rare voice of reason among the hysteria here at iSteve, but lots of things I wouldn’t have predicted have happened, so . . .

    Your problem (and mine) is that we’re being rational, not hysterical. Others here, while perhaps not quite hysterical, have admitted they’re “terrified” of covid. I have no particular desire to die, but neither am I terrified of a virus that, while perhaps more severe and unpleasant, does not statistically cause any more illness and death than any new variant of the flu does any year. It’s not the bubonic plague and I’m not seeing the promised pyramids of corpses (unfortunately). I’m just seeing lots of people cowering under their beds and shrieking “OMG! We’re all going to dieeeee!!!” And medical rationing – particularly for those over 80 and/or in poor health, is logical and practical. I don’t know where this desire to live forever illness free comes from, but as a Christian I can confidently say it is nowhere promised in the New Testament. Eternal life is not in this flesh, which will always remain vulnerable to illness and disease. The modern American medical practice keeping every 85 year old technically alive but bedbound and rarely sentient for the last ‘x’ months via hundreds of thousands of modern care is obscene. And this hysteria over a virus is utterly ludicrous. And I hate most people anyhow, and now even more so. And I’m 61 and refuse to wear a mask or cower.

    Get over yourselves, people. Where is your purported dissidence, or resolve, or even rationality? You have revealed yourselves to be pupal bugmen just waiting to virtue signal with the best of the cat ladies (and the Nice White Ladies who are having a grand old time bullying everyone and trying to shame them into cowering along with the rest). If you’re terrified unto death, then die already. Otherwise, grow a pair and quit your whinging.

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
    "I don’t know where this desire to live forever illness free comes from."

    90% of the people alive today, perhaps more, do not believe in any world other than this one. They believe that death is extinction. Even the fake pope half-believes that.

    So if this is it, then you want it prolonged to the very last laboured breath.

    People wonder why previous pandemics were more or less ignored.

    The answer, for once, really is very simple. People believed both in God and in what He had promised: eternal life, but after this one.

    Come sweet death; come, eternal rest:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJMEeOL4uJk

  84. res says:

    Thanks for this data, Steve!

    To summarize, we have 2,249 people admitted to the ICU. Of those 344 were discharged alive and 346 died leaving 1559 in critical care. So roughly speaking 1/7 lived, 1/7 died, and 5/7 are still under care. So the big question is what happens to those 5/7. Based on the survival curves in Figure 11 showing all patients with 50% survival at 30 days, I am guessing half of the 5/7 die, but I would feel better with a double check of my reasoning, and better still with hard data saying that outright.

    Some definitions:

    – Advanced respiratory: invasive ventilation, BPAP via translarygeal tube or tracheostomy, CPAP via translaryngeal tube, or extracorporeal respiratory support

    – Basic respiratory: >50% oxygen by face mask, close observation due to potential for acute deterioration, physiotherapy/suction to clear secretions at least two-hourly, recently extubated after a period of mechanical ventilation, mask/hood CPAP/BPAP, non-invasive ventilation, CPAP via a tracheostomy, intubated to protect airway

    Table 4 breaks patients down into those categories.

    I think “Advanced respiratory” is a fairly good proxy for “ventilators.” There were 388 of those cases with 127 surviving and 261 dying. The average length of stay in critical care was 7 days for survivors, 5 days for non-survivors.

    So two thirds of people placed on ventilator died anyway. I think this supports the idea that concern over ventilator capacity is overblown in terms of materially increasing the overall death rate. But denying ventilator access would cause preventable deaths which are worth worrying about. It is just that ventilators are not the difference between apocalypse and not-apocalypse.

    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.

    Figure 11 provides a good way of looking at this data. There we see 30 day survival rates of:
    All patients – 50%
    Patients not receiving mechanical ventilation in the first 24h – 71%
    Patients receiving mechanical ventilation in the first 24h – 34%

    For comparison, I linked a study from Wuhan here:
    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/china-skates/#comment-3818413

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

    The organ dysfunction and treatment of the 138 patients are shown in Table 4. As of February 3, 2020, 85 patients (61.6%) were still hospitalized. A total of 47 patients (34.1%) had been discharged, and 6 patients (4.3%) had died. Of the 36 patients admitted to the ICU, 11 were still in the ICU, 9 had been discharged to home, 10 had been transferred to the general wards, and 6 had died. Of the 11 patients who remained in the ICU, 6 received invasive ventilation (1 switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) and 5 to noninvasive ventilations).

    So 6/36 of ICU patients died (none who weren’t admitted to ICU died, 0/102) and 11/36 were still in the ICU (which I assume is not a good sign). So we are looking at between 1/6 and 1/2 of patients admitted to the ICU dying anyway.

    Those numbers seem in the ballpark of these English numbers which gives me more confidence in both.

    • Thanks: Keypusher
    • Replies: @John Achterhof

    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.
     
    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.
    , @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    So, like you, I'm a little less concerned about the ventilator shortage (because people who need ventilators are in dire straits even with all the care in the world) and more concerned about a potential general hospital bed shortage (because we really want to give treatment to people who need hospital treatment but not ventilator treatment).

  85. …you don’t want to go into the ICU.

    Nobody goes there anymore– it’s too crowded.

    You certainly don’t want to go there in South Africa. That’s where patients were dying every Friday night in one ICU. It was always on Friday.

    It took them weeks to discover that the cleaning lady was unplugging the equipment so she could wax the floor.

    Basically…

    Nostalgia. My kids were watching music videos from the ’80s today. That’s the era when every other sentence began with “Basically…”

    In the ’70s it was “totally”. It was more the concept than the word; publishers put out many books with “Compleat” in the title.

    “Essentially” and its many synonyms took over in the ’90s. I stopped paying attention after that, essentially.

    • Replies: @Charon
    I'll get you up to date then. Several years ago, people began every sentence with the word "So". That got old so now they start every sentence with "Okay so..."

    Happy to be of service.

    P.S. What might be next?
    , @Mr. Anon

    Nostalgia. My kids were watching music videos from the ’80s today. That’s the era when every other sentence began with “Basically…”

    In the ’70s it was “totally”. It was more the concept than the word; publishers put out many books with “Compleat” in the title.

    “Essentially” and its many synonyms took over in the ’90s. I stopped paying attention after that, essentially.
     
    "Totally" is used by frivolous middle-class people. "Basically" is used by earnest middle-class people. "Essentially" is used by upper-middle-class people who look down on the aforementioned two groups. But they all mean the same thing: "uuuuuuh".
  86. @Paleo Liberal
    Well.

    There seems to be an increase in the number of divorces in couples quarantining together.

    Maybe this could help both Coronavirus and some of these marriages.

    “Maybe this could help both Coronavirus and some of these marriages.”

    I suspect this all has more to do with the marriages — or impending divorces — of the researchers involved in this study.

    • LOL: Paleo Liberal
  87. @Jack D
    At what point should they take you off - when you have a 1% chance of survival, a .1% chance, a .01% chance? 1 in a million? Does the family's answer change if they are personally paying the cost? It's easy to be generous with other people's money - it's a Democrat specialty in fact.

    “At what point should they take you off – when you have a 1% chance of survival, a .1% chance, a .01% chance? 1 in a million?”

    That’s for the medical professionals to decide. You seemingly would be willing to pull the plug just to save money.

    “Does the family’s answer change if they are personally paying the cost?”

    They most likely have insurance, right?

    “It’s easy to be generous with other people’s money – it’s a Democrat specialty in fact.”

    You mean it’s a Democrat AND Republican speciality in fact.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    "That’s for the medical professionals to decide. You seemingly would be willing to pull the plug just to save money."

    Suppose by pulling the plug you could save enough dollars to provide medical care to save five infants from premature death, given our scandalously high infant mortality rate. Would you do it?
  88. HA says:
    @HA
    OT: Doctors in China are testing Viagra as a treatment for COVID-19.

    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-05/viagra-discovery-could-treat-coronavirus-patients

    “OT: Doctors in China are testing Viagra as a treatment for COVID-19.”

    Meanwhile, practitioners of traditional Chinese “medicine” are also hard at work ridding the world of this pestilence:

    China is encouraging herbal remedies to treat COVID-19.

    How long before they decide a little bat soup — as in “hair of the dog” is the secret ingredient that makes this cure bulletproof? I mean, you can’t let some silly wet-market prohibition stand in the way of people obtaining their traditional medicine, right? That would be inhumane, and also racist. Don’t forget racist.

    And then, once they package it up, how much longer before Gwynneth Paltrow starts offering $600 vials of the stuff on her website? (In an effort to get rid of “excess inventory” I bet she’ll even be able to toss in a couple of vaginal eggs, if you order within the next 24 hours.)

  89. @Jonathan Mason

    And we are basically turning our whole society upside down to help this 2 or 3% because we don’t want to ever turn ANYONE away from a ventilator or take them off of it before they flatline.
     
    You have actually put your finger on an aspect of US culture that is not always understood by foreigners. Hence Americans are horrified that National Health Service patients in England might be denied hip or knee replacement surgery if they are morbidly obese on the grounds that they would derive no tangible benefit.

    Such a thing has never been heard of in the US where a 400-lbs bedbound person has no trouble getting a new hip or knee on Medicare.

    It is simply part of the culture--the shared values that no one ever questions.

    “Such a thing has never been heard of in the US where a 400-lbs bedbound person has no trouble getting a new hip or knee on Medicare.”

    That’s simply not true. My father is obese and they refuse him a hip replacement until he loses weight.His doctor, not Medicare.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Tom -
    I know. Since I've been shutdown and locked up in my house, I've had more time to pay attention to the assertions made by columnists and commentators here. I catch a lot of that kind of stuff - claims that have absolutely no basis in fact or are extreme exaggerations of the truth. My 80 year old father received a knee replacement operation last summer after a one year wait. The orthopedic surgeon had refused to do it earlier because my father, who was otherwise in great shape, had a small a rotator cuff tear in his shoulder. The ability of a patient to get on their feet using a walker and support their own weight and use the joint is essential to post-operative outcomes. A shoulder issue would have just made this very difficult - not impossible, and the doctor still demurred.

    Up till now I considered myself sympathetic to the whole HBD thing. I' m beginning to question their whole "We have all the answers to the world's most vexing problems. Everything is encoded and predetermined in genes (IQ, disease outcomes, success in life), however, we are being silenced and persecuted by powerful forces enforcing political correctness who exclude us from mainstream discussions".

    This Covid-19 thing came along and their "movement", which claimed to understand the Rosetta Stone on human outcomes, sounded zero alarms about what is possibly the largest public health crisis of our lifetime. Maybe the MSM is justified in being so skeptical about their major assertions.
  90. @Corvinus
    "At what point should they take you off – when you have a 1% chance of survival, a .1% chance, a .01% chance? 1 in a million?"

    That's for the medical professionals to decide. You seemingly would be willing to pull the plug just to save money.

    "Does the family’s answer change if they are personally paying the cost?"

    They most likely have insurance, right?

    "It’s easy to be generous with other people’s money – it’s a Democrat specialty in fact."

    You mean it's a Democrat AND Republican speciality in fact.

    “That’s for the medical professionals to decide. You seemingly would be willing to pull the plug just to save money.”

    Suppose by pulling the plug you could save enough dollars to provide medical care to save five infants from premature death, given our scandalously high infant mortality rate. Would you do it?

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    "Suppose by pulling the plug you could save enough dollars to provide medical care to save five infants from premature death, given our scandalously high infant mortality rate. Would you do it?"

    It's very easy to make up these moral dilemma scenarios. How old is the person I am pulling the plug on? Is it a relative or a dear friend? What is their condition? What is their prognosis? And, of course, what is the emotional toll and aftermath of it all?

    But, to answer your question, I would consult with the person and their family, told them about the situation, and then make that decision. Perhaps you find it easier to play God.

    Pray tell, what is the race of the person that I am "pulling the plug on" and the race of the kids? See, to some of the fine posters here, this information is relevant to them and would unfortunately guide their decision. Hopefully, you are not in that camp.

  91. @Anonymouse
    Pascal be damned. His metaphor does not obtain for mentation of the very old. I know I will die pretty soon being 86. But day to day that knowledge does not obtrude on my consciousness. Of course I speak only for myself but I am surely not the only one emotionally unaffected by an impending but temporally indeterminate doom. Pascal evidently had a neurosthenic disposition which is not typical.

    Pascal evidently had a neurosthenic disposition which is not typical.

    Philip Larkin appears to have shared it: https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/48422/aubade-56d229a6e2f07

  92. A reality check for Steve–

    Video:

    Transcript: https://freebirth.ca/blogs/freebirth/perspectives-on-the-pandemic-with-professor-knut-wittkowski

    The entire strategy that has been employed so far is ass-backwards from a public health standpoint.

    • Replies: @anon
    More like unreality check.
  93. @Achmed E. Newman
    a) I've said this before, but they (most, at least) don't blame you for being a smoker. They just wanted to assign an obvious reason so they can live with less worry about it themselves, and yeah, figure they will never die. OK, maybe better phrasing would be "they wanted to blame your cancer on smoking." How about that?

    b) Yes, staying in the hospital can be bad for you. Lying around, getting no more than 2 hours sleep at a time, cause they wake you on THEIR SCHEDULE for new drips of this, new pricks for the other thing, etc., and being in an environment so different from home is not good for you. Then, there are the screw-ups, which happen quite often.

    Oh 3 more words: National Health Service. Steve, if the NHS had been around back in the day, the English Patient would have not been able to be a full-length feature film.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5qalNX5G94

    Oh 3 more words: National Health Service. Steve, if the NHS had been around back in the day, the English Patient would have not been able to be a full-length feature film.

    Yes, that’s why privatizing the NHS is such a proven election winner in the UK. My sister had her third child in England, dealt with the NHS throughout the pregnancy, and it damn near turned her into a socialist.

  94. @res
    Thanks for this data, Steve!

    To summarize, we have 2,249 people admitted to the ICU. Of those 344 were discharged alive and 346 died leaving 1559 in critical care. So roughly speaking 1/7 lived, 1/7 died, and 5/7 are still under care. So the big question is what happens to those 5/7. Based on the survival curves in Figure 11 showing all patients with 50% survival at 30 days, I am guessing half of the 5/7 die, but I would feel better with a double check of my reasoning, and better still with hard data saying that outright.

    Some definitions:

    - Advanced respiratory: invasive ventilation, BPAP via translarygeal tube or tracheostomy, CPAP via translaryngeal tube, or extracorporeal respiratory support

    - Basic respiratory: >50% oxygen by face mask, close observation due to potential for acute deterioration, physiotherapy/suction to clear secretions at least two-hourly, recently extubated after a period of mechanical ventilation, mask/hood CPAP/BPAP, non-invasive ventilation, CPAP via a tracheostomy, intubated to protect airway
     
    Table 4 breaks patients down into those categories.

    I think "Advanced respiratory" is a fairly good proxy for "ventilators." There were 388 of those cases with 127 surviving and 261 dying. The average length of stay in critical care was 7 days for survivors, 5 days for non-survivors.

    So two thirds of people placed on ventilator died anyway. I think this supports the idea that concern over ventilator capacity is overblown in terms of materially increasing the overall death rate. But denying ventilator access would cause preventable deaths which are worth worrying about. It is just that ventilators are not the difference between apocalypse and not-apocalypse.

    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.

    Figure 11 provides a good way of looking at this data. There we see 30 day survival rates of:
    All patients - 50%
    Patients not receiving mechanical ventilation in the first 24h - 71%
    Patients receiving mechanical ventilation in the first 24h - 34%

    For comparison, I linked a study from Wuhan here:
    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/china-skates/#comment-3818413

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

    The organ dysfunction and treatment of the 138 patients are shown in Table 4. As of February 3, 2020, 85 patients (61.6%) were still hospitalized. A total of 47 patients (34.1%) had been discharged, and 6 patients (4.3%) had died. Of the 36 patients admitted to the ICU, 11 were still in the ICU, 9 had been discharged to home, 10 had been transferred to the general wards, and 6 had died. Of the 11 patients who remained in the ICU, 6 received invasive ventilation (1 switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) and 5 to noninvasive ventilations).

     

    So 6/36 of ICU patients died (none who weren’t admitted to ICU died, 0/102) and 11/36 were still in the ICU (which I assume is not a good sign). So we are looking at between 1/6 and 1/2 of patients admitted to the ICU dying anyway.
     
    Those numbers seem in the ballpark of these English numbers which gives me more confidence in both.

    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.

    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.

    • Replies: @res


    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.
     
    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.
     
    Right. Which means you are taking a group which might have an expected 90% death rate even with ventilators and making it 100% (assume). So 1/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) would be excess deaths due to lack of ventilator capacity. Whereas a naive analysis would use the death rate for the entire ventilator group (70%) and calculate 3/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) excess deaths.

    I think those are pretty decent guesses, and that means the excess deaths with triage might be 1/3 of what you would think from the naive analysis.

    And for those screaming about death panels (not so many here, but out in the world at large...), that is why you do triage.
  95. @Paleo Liberal
    The death toll is almost certainly massively underreported.

    First, if we accept the Wuhan death toll, we would have to believe the Chinese weren’t trying to underplay she numbers. Some have estimated over 40,000 unexplained deaths. But those bodies have been cremated, so no proof.

    In Italy, the excess number of people dying was far greater than the reported Coronavirus deaths.

    In the US, it has been established that there are quite a few false negatives, not to mention people who died before being tested. Quite a few deaths by respiratory disease not reported as Coronavirus.

    My wife is a health care worker. She treated an unusual number of patients with respiratory symptoms who were never tested for Coronavirus.

    Sorry, but the people trying to downplay this as people who would have died anyway doesn’t work. Of course everyone dies sometime. But these are people who are dying years, or even decades, before their time. There is at least one recorded death by Coronavirus of a newborn baby.

    The death toll is almost certainly massively underreported.

    Oh please.

    No doubt they’ve missed a few upfront when the testing was a mess. But you, i even the cats and dogs know all the politics pushes the other way.

    They aren’t short of testing now. Any death that’s Wuhan virus positive will be a covid-19 death and probably any respiratory death that looks like it will get tossed in as well.

    • Agree: Polynikes
    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    They are very short on testing now. Talk to any health care worker. They will tell you.
  96. @Anon
    I have been looking for papers that indicate whether having latent tuberculosis increases your percentage of ACE 2 receptors, but it appears no one has done any research on it. Unfortunately, this may be the most important factor of all in Covid-19, now that it looks like there's a latent tuberculosis and Covid-19 connection.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033795v1

    We need more TB testing in Covid-19 patients, and more a lot more research.

    By the way, Cuomo has reported that new hospitalizations in New York dropped today. Italy and Spain have also reported a drop in their death rates:

    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/04/05/Italy-Spain-record-much-lower-rises-in-coronavirus-deaths-global-toll-68000/3711586095776/?sl=1

    “In Italy, the excess number of people dying was far greater than the reported Coronavirus deaths.”

    Are you suggesting that the Italian government has underreported deaths? According to Euromomo, they report over 95% of actual deaths within 7 days.

    Check the charts here, derived not from models but actual data:
    http://www.euromomo.eu/

    Spain is still below three winters ago. The Netherlands, pursuing herd immunity, has no increase over normal. Sweden, with no lockdown, has no excess deaths.

    “Sorry, but the people trying to downplay this as people who would have died anyway doesn’t work.”
    What about the data that do that? Do you reject those as well?

    And remember this: if Corona kills in 28 days from date of infection, none of the European countries have locked down more than 28 days ago. Any drops in deaths, as seen in Italy starting March 27, only 17 days after lockdown, cannot be due to the lockdown.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

    • Agree: RichardTaylor
  97. A little off-topic: How do people get infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus?

    Documented transmission by fomite (e.g. doorknobs), droplets (6′ distancing), and aerosols (out to 20′). So what are the relative importances/frequencies of these modes?

    Here’s the 4-hour intercity bus ride that symptomatic “Patient A” took. The person sitting next to him: not infected.

    A related question is whether how you get infected affects the course of your illness. Siddhartha Mukherjee in the 3/26/20 New Yorker points to studies suggesting that a high initial viral load (e.g. getting sneezed on by somebody shedding lots of virus) likely leads or more severe disease. In the April 1 NYT (not paywalled), two Princeton academics make the same point.

    So what are the low-hanging fruit, in terms of behaviors? ICU doc David Price emphasizes hand-washing and Purell at the 13:50 mark of this 3/22/20 video. Are gloves necessary? Decontaminating mail?

    It’d be useful to have a clearer sense of the relative risks.

    • Agree: Charon
    • Replies: @Sean
    Boris Johnson is in hospital.
    , @Charon
    Fascinating, but 1) how did they figure out the 30-minute infection case and especially 2) how is it that no one got on or off the bus at intervals, no seats were empty, and there were no standees?

    I'll go look at the article and see if these fairly obvious questions were addressed. I'm always skeptical of data which are neat and tidy.

    , @vhrm
    Heh, right before the time mark you give the guy says:

    "The general public has zero need for n95 masks."
    So was still pushing hard the old party line. (which was still current as of the time he was saying it).

    This, of course makes no sense in light of that bus study you mention (which also came up in comments a few weeks ago as indication that there's strong evidence of aeresol spread ).

    The evolving view that transmission and possibly severity is dose dependent (your other links) also suggests masks would help since they cut down on the number of particles you intake (if you happen to be somewhere where there are such).

    The low hanging fruit, imo, are avoiding indoor crowds, ventilation, masks and hand sanitizing. Also stay away from sewers or water treatment plants or anywhere else that you can smell sewage.

    One of Steve's posts just a few days back was news that sone Germans are tracking the transmission problem with gusto, but it'll probably be months until they publish any results.

    , @AnotherDad
    ic1000, thanks much for those links.

    Both the South China Morning Post story on the bus bugman and the NYT story by the Princeton Chemistry/Genomics profs on viral load were definitely worth reading and reinforced the point i've made repeatedly ...

    It is stupid to be taking all the very intrusive and meddlesome "shut it down!" measures when we aren't doing the very simplest thing to wallop airborne transmission--wearing a mask.

    I've forward them on to my kids--who all now have some masks AnotherMom sewed along with KN95s from China.
  98. Anonymous[259] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hugh
    This makes for sombre reading.

    If you go onto respiratory support (advanced), you have only a 33% chance of making it out alive.

    ...and the UK wants to buy thousands of new ventilators.

    My own hope is for Chloroquinine therapy to be given when illness first manifests. Waiting for breathing to get difficult is waiting too long.

    Of course, the key component in a ventilator is the electric motor.

    I earnestly wonder if there is a single facility left in the UK which manufactures electric motors of the correct power level.

    No guesses from where they must be imported from ……

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    I earnestly wonder if there is a single facility left in the UK which manufactures electric motors of the correct power level.
     
    I could manufacture an electric motor from stuff lying around in my garage.
  99. anon[222] • Disclaimer says:
    @Harsh Pencil
    This data argues AGAINST a lockdown. The only real benefit from a lockdown that I can see is that by flattening the curve, those that get infected and need hospitalization get to go to a functioning hospital system rather than an overwhelmed hospital system. Because the epidemiologists are saying that the lockdown won't change the number of people who eventually get it that much. So the societal benefit is the number of people who get the disease under the long lockdown strategy, need hospitalization and live, but would have died if the hospitals were worse. But if an ICU doesn't do that much for you anyway (in all probability), then this number, the benefit of a lockdown, is low.

    This data argues AGAINST a lockdown. The only real benefit from a lockdown that I can see is that by flattening the curve, those that get infected and need hospitalization get to go to a functioning hospital system rather than an overwhelmed hospital system.

    Think more carefully. There are many people who use the hospital, including the ICU. A friend of my just had her third child and unfortunately there were some complications. The child is fine, the mother spent a night in ICU before being moved to a room. None of her family can visit because of quarantine, but at least there was enough hospital capacity to take care of her; her children still have a mother.

    Car accidents happen. Cardiac events happen. All sorts of things happen, and some number of people wind up in the ICU for a time. But if the local ICU is stuffed full of COVID-19 patients there’s a problem for other people.

    Flattening the curve is good for the entire community, because ICU space is finite. This should be obvious.

    • Replies: @FPD72
    People who don’t have Covid-19 are afraid of going to the ED in my city for fear of being exposed. My younger son is dating a pediatric nurse practitioner who works in an ER. According to her, people are so afraid of being exposed that the ED has lost so much business that they’ve had to lay off employees.
    , @Semperluctor
    Agreed. The data show that shelter in place should be mandatory for those > say 65 to 70, plus those with diabetes etc. Everyone else goes to work. Of these at work, all will get the virus, and 99.5 % will recover just fine, with 0.5 % either dying or getting long term disability. The hospitals will not crash. The virus eventually having no new hosts to infect, those who sheltered in place can now come outside. Arrivals from abroad with the virus can still infect them, but the hospitals won’t crash. This is the only sane model; it seems to be the Swedish model, but maybe I am wrong there.
    Lastly, regarding total deaths by / with/from COVID. The only way to know for sure will be in hindsight. That is to say, examine all deaths from all causes for period Jan 2020 to say October 2020, & compare to same period for prior ten years. If for example doctors are classifying deaths as being from COVID when they would in other years have been classified as death from viral pneumonia, then viral pneumonia deaths will drop by the number of increased COVID deaths... but, total deaths would remain stable. I think that here in the US total deaths are about 2.8 million per year (is this right?) so we will know if it spikes to say 2.9m.
  100. Anonymous[259] • Disclaimer says:
    @jim jones
    Italy allowed 100,000 Chinese workers from Wuhan to move to Italy to work in their factories

    https://www.altnewsmedia.net/news/corona-virus-exclusive-why-italy/

    Strangely, Italy is a land of mass unemployment.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    So the ruling class screwed us out of our standard of living, and now they're screwing us out of living.
  101. @3g4me
    Jack D: Never would have predicted I'd find your comments the rare voice of reason among the hysteria here at iSteve, but lots of things I wouldn't have predicted have happened, so . . .

    Your problem (and mine) is that we're being rational, not hysterical. Others here, while perhaps not quite hysterical, have admitted they're "terrified" of covid. I have no particular desire to die, but neither am I terrified of a virus that, while perhaps more severe and unpleasant, does not statistically cause any more illness and death than any new variant of the flu does any year. It's not the bubonic plague and I'm not seeing the promised pyramids of corpses (unfortunately). I'm just seeing lots of people cowering under their beds and shrieking "OMG! We're all going to dieeeee!!!" And medical rationing - particularly for those over 80 and/or in poor health, is logical and practical. I don't know where this desire to live forever illness free comes from, but as a Christian I can confidently say it is nowhere promised in the New Testament. Eternal life is not in this flesh, which will always remain vulnerable to illness and disease. The modern American medical practice keeping every 85 year old technically alive but bedbound and rarely sentient for the last 'x' months via hundreds of thousands of modern care is obscene. And this hysteria over a virus is utterly ludicrous. And I hate most people anyhow, and now even more so. And I'm 61 and refuse to wear a mask or cower.

    Get over yourselves, people. Where is your purported dissidence, or resolve, or even rationality? You have revealed yourselves to be pupal bugmen just waiting to virtue signal with the best of the cat ladies (and the Nice White Ladies who are having a grand old time bullying everyone and trying to shame them into cowering along with the rest). If you're terrified unto death, then die already. Otherwise, grow a pair and quit your whinging.

    “I don’t know where this desire to live forever illness free comes from.”

    90% of the people alive today, perhaps more, do not believe in any world other than this one. They believe that death is extinction. Even the fake pope half-believes that.

    So if this is it, then you want it prolonged to the very last laboured breath.

    People wonder why previous pandemics were more or less ignored.

    The answer, for once, really is very simple. People believed both in God and in what He had promised: eternal life, but after this one.

    Come sweet death; come, eternal rest:

    • Agree: Daniel Williams
  102. @ic1000
    A little off-topic: How do people get infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus?

    Documented transmission by fomite (e.g. doorknobs), droplets (6' distancing), and aerosols (out to 20'). So what are the relative importances/frequencies of these modes?

    Here's the 4-hour intercity bus ride that symptomatic "Patient A" took. The person sitting next to him: not infected.
    https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2020/03/11/2367f83c-61fc-11ea-8e9f-2d196083a37c_972x_161511.jpg

    A related question is whether how you get infected affects the course of your illness. Siddhartha Mukherjee in the 3/26/20 New Yorker points to studies suggesting that a high initial viral load (e.g. getting sneezed on by somebody shedding lots of virus) likely leads or more severe disease. In the April 1 NYT (not paywalled), two Princeton academics make the same point.

    So what are the low-hanging fruit, in terms of behaviors? ICU doc David Price emphasizes hand-washing and Purell at the 13:50 mark of this 3/22/20 video. Are gloves necessary? Decontaminating mail?

    It'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the relative risks.

    Boris Johnson is in hospital.

  103. @Oscar Peterson
    Almost 3/4 of ICU deaths listed in the chart are males.

    Can you imagine what would be happening right now if the gender proportions of ICU deaths (and virus deaths more generally) were reversed?

    It would be all pink ribbons--or something--and stentorian shrieking that "the patriarchy doesn't care about the lives of women."

    No doubt some equivalent of ACT UP would already be aggressively soliciting funding and marching on Capitol Hill.

    Indeed. I’ve thought about figuring out a way to get involved in men’s-rights activism should I survive this.

  104. Anonymous[232] • Disclaimer says:

    There seems to be a lot of will internationally to portray Britain as being in chaos and as a basket case country on the brink of collapse.

    I think this is a mixture of the Anglophobia that is common in many countries as well as more recent contempt for Britain over Brexit. It’s interesting that Sweden hasn’t even locked down and yet is not getting anywhere near the criticism directed at them that Britain is.

  105. @unit472
    To paraphrase Forrest Gump "Hospital is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get"! I had a wicked looking rash on my left calf. My PCP sent me to a dermatologist to have a look only she wasn't there so her nurse practitioner examined me and said it was just hives and gave me some ointment to put on it. The rash went away after a few weeks but then my urine turned amber. I had some blood work done and was told to report to the ER by my doc. I did and gave them a urine sample. Then a newly hired nurse ( I overheard her being asked if she knew how to insert a catheter in a man's penis) came in and put the device down my penis. She damaged my bladder and it began to bleed. To stop the bleeding they put a two liter bag of saline hanging above my bed to flush my bladder. Problem was blood clots and that blocked my urinary canal. My bladder was being pressurized and I was in agony. A nurse tried to massage my genitals to work the clots out but it kept happening. I was screaming in pain and finally just ripped all the tubing out of me. That enraged the nurses but they did track down a urologist who took the nurses out of my room and told them they were lucky they hadn't killed me. I was then taken to surgery to have my bladder repaired. NONE of this had anything to do with my actual problem.

    The rash on my calf was an early indicator or wegener's granulomatosis, a rare autoimmune disease that, in my case went on to attack my kidneys leaving me with only 11% capacity and condemned to dialysis for the rest of my life which will be short indeed if I get Covid-19

    My bladder was being pressurized and I was in agony. A nurse tried to massage my genitals to work the clots out

    This is the strangest ‘letter to Playboy’ that I have ever read.

    • LOL: Jim Don Bob
    • Replies: @Wielgus
    The erotic literature of COVID just had a new entry.
  106. @candid_observer
    One thing I've been wondering about is if there isn't a statistical approach to get some sense of what the values of R0 before and after restrictions might be, based on the various curves we see.

    Couldn't one construct a simple model of R0 before and after restrictions which would produce these various metrics -- hospitalization, ICU, death -- and see which ranges of values of R0 match up best with what we see empirically?

    Isn't it possible to use a maximum likelihood estimator approach to do this?

    Looking by eye for slight bends in the curve seems pretty primitive.

    If nothing else, it should be possible to run a set of simulations under various assumptions for the value of R0 (and perhaps various assumptions about distributions of time to hospitalization, time to ICU, time to death) and get a sense of what sort of curves we might expect to see, and see how the actual curves fit into these models.

    If nothing else, we could see whether we are overinterpreting these actual curves for signs of reduction; perhaps we can’t have anything like confidence until we get further out in the curve.

    As it is, we’re really just making blind “intuitive” guesses.

  107. @theMann
    England's current population is given as 67,797,568 persons. If the figure of 2249 persons in ICU at the moment is for all of England, then the rate of infection for you to be sick enough to end up in ICU is .0000331723 %. Wow, the second coming of the Black Death. Not to mention that the death rate SHOULD be 0%, since we know how to cure this illness.

    Or alternately, you could try an ounce of prevention, eating something high in Vitamin C while sitting in front of a sun lamp. (or the actual Sun where I live, not an option yet everywhere.)

    But clearly, it makes much more sense for the entire world to collectively shit their pants while destroying their Economies over an illness of very low lethality, with a known set of cures, and a known methodology for prevention.


    Men take responsibility for their actions, and their health. So in all seriousness:

    Are we men, or are we Lab Rats?

    then the rate of infection for you to be sick enough to end up in ICU is .0000331723 %. Wow, the second coming of the Black Death

    .

    You might want to look up how exponential growth works.

  108. res says:
    @TomSchmidt
    Given what we have seen with asymptomaticinfection, and the authorities' 14 day quarantine for exposed people, it's reasonable to assume the average from infection to deaths is something like 28 days. Essentially ALL the deaths now are from pre-lockdown infections.

    So there'd better be a severe kink 28 days after Cuomo torpedoed the NYeconomy, budget, and bond rating. The drop in deaths now, (he just announced we had a statewide drop today) less than 3 weeks after the March 18/20 full shutdown, cannot be due to decreased infections from the shutdown.

    I'd love to see a fuller explication on this point.

    Ron Unz and I are discussing that right now. I think the the infection-death period is closer to 14 days which would make the NY drop now align with the shutdown. It would also make the Louisiana dramatic change in growth rate for deaths (36% per day to 18%) better align with their state of emergency (a 17 day lag).

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/americas-coronavirus-peak/#comment-3818339

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    How can we get a better fix on timing? Known infections, maybe? You need to know the exact day when someone got infected, and also died.

    The Kirkland nursing home gives a good idea:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-09/how-coronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

    Patient 0 in Seattle was January 19th. The first death in the home was Feb 19, 31 days later. So infection to death cannot be more than 31 days.
  109. @Sean
    Only 1 in 50 under 30 year olds infected need any kind of hospital treatment. That is likely a massive overestimate.


    Over the last three months in a Bergamo suburb called Nembro, three-quarters of the population are known to have been infected and 0.8 percent of the population seem to have died a COVID-19 related death (this is including all the excess deaths of those who passed away at home undiagnosed with COVID-19). The rationale for the lockdown originally was stopping too many getting seriously ill at one time and thus have all cause deaths skyrocket because treatment had become unobtainable as the medical services and hospitals became clogged up and overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. Never that with a lockdown we could stop people from dying of COVID-19 that would have died even with the best treatment once they were exposed to the pathogen. But that is what is begining to be implied that testing and lockdown will do. This is the spectre of Dread Risk and it will prevent exit from the lockdown even once it has become established it wouldn't overwhelm the hospitals.

    One in four men in Glasgow will die before his sixty-fifth birthday by stroke, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer. Considering cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction, its not looking good for Scotland, but Russia, where men die from alcohol poisoning so young there are fewer lame ducks/ low hanging fruit for COVID-19, may come out relatively well.

    The government can conscript young men (conceivably women) into the army and send then off to die abroad in order that national power is maintained. Often it is the most intelligent selfless and valuable men who die without reproducing. Something similar in the twilight of life seems hardly less just. Those who would be at most risk of dying younger are the very same ones who ignored official advice not to smoke, drink and overeat. A vaccine is required for COVID-19 to end the lockdown without a tranche of COVID-19 deaths, but although the pathogen (SARS-CoV-2) does not mutate as much as the flu virus, a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 is not going to be ready for use for months no matter what resources they throw at it. And so they are talking about an all-ages lockdown continuing for months, which in a modern just-in-time supply chain economy is impossible without irreversible economic damage.

    Continuing the full lockdown past a month is surely into the realm of where back-to-normal is not going to mean that. Medical services have to be paid for with economic activity and if that ceases the treatment will have to be rationed. This is not COVID-19 hospital overwhelm for a limited time I am talking about, but a depression without precedent in which there will be health care rationing never before seen, and continuing for decades. In that case, rely on it, the death toll will be huge.

    Then maybe the just-in-time supply chain is part of the problem. What did we do before that?

    • Replies: @The Alarmist

    Then maybe the just-in-time supply chain is part of the problem. What did we do before that?
     
    We paid more for crap actually made in the USA.
  110. SFG says:
    @candid_observer
    One thing I've been wondering about is if there isn't a statistical approach to get some sense of what the values of R0 before and after restrictions might be, based on the various curves we see.

    Couldn't one construct a simple model of R0 before and after restrictions which would produce these various metrics -- hospitalization, ICU, death -- and see which ranges of values of R0 match up best with what we see empirically?

    Isn't it possible to use a maximum likelihood estimator approach to do this?

    Looking by eye for slight bends in the curve seems pretty primitive.

    If you get the actual numbers you can divide one day by the day before and estimate the doubling time and see if it goes up or down. With more than two days you can take the logarithm and fit a regression line. Of course, the fewer days you use the noisier your data.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    That tells you the approximate value of the exponent of the empirical curve, but it doesn't give you a good sense of what's going on underneath in terms of the changes in R0. Nor does it give you a sense of the confidence interval even in the exponent of the empirical curve.

    In the end, we need to have an idea of what R0 might be after the restrictions. It's the only way we will be able to make reasonable inferences as to how far back we can pull the restrictions without another exponential explosion.

    To get an idea of the change in R0 it will be important to understand how the distribution of the time table of transition from infection to various events (hospitalization, ICU, death) works.

  111. @YetAnotherAnon
    Those figures certainly give a Boomer, even a fit one, pause for thought. If so many younger than I don't make it that is not good news at all.

    Are we sure this isn't an escaped experimental weapon/research project from the Wuhan Institute of Virology? Where exactly is Huang Yanling?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8188159/Did-coronavirus-leak-research-lab-Wuhan-Startling-new-theory-no-longer-discounted.html

    Are we sure this isn’t an escaped experimental weapon/research project from the Wuhan Institute of Virology?

    I would say that is about 100x more likely than a group of visiting US soldiers releasing it on purpose.

  112. Anonymous[284] • Disclaimer says:
    @TomSchmidt
    "Such a thing has never been heard of in the US where a 400-lbs bedbound person has no trouble getting a new hip or knee on Medicare."

    That's simply not true. My father is obese and they refuse him a hip replacement until he loses weight.His doctor, not Medicare.

    Tom –
    I know. Since I’ve been shutdown and locked up in my house, I’ve had more time to pay attention to the assertions made by columnists and commentators here. I catch a lot of that kind of stuff – claims that have absolutely no basis in fact or are extreme exaggerations of the truth. My 80 year old father received a knee replacement operation last summer after a one year wait. The orthopedic surgeon had refused to do it earlier because my father, who was otherwise in great shape, had a small a rotator cuff tear in his shoulder. The ability of a patient to get on their feet using a walker and support their own weight and use the joint is essential to post-operative outcomes. A shoulder issue would have just made this very difficult – not impossible, and the doctor still demurred.

    Up till now I considered myself sympathetic to the whole HBD thing. I’ m beginning to question their whole “We have all the answers to the world’s most vexing problems. Everything is encoded and predetermined in genes (IQ, disease outcomes, success in life), however, we are being silenced and persecuted by powerful forces enforcing political correctness who exclude us from mainstream discussions”.

    This Covid-19 thing came along and their “movement”, which claimed to understand the Rosetta Stone on human outcomes, sounded zero alarms about what is possibly the largest public health crisis of our lifetime. Maybe the MSM is justified in being so skeptical about their major assertions.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    I don't think they really believe in HBD, frankly. A true HBd person engages in that behavior of discriminating, or use Steve's term, noticing. It's not PCto notice differences in races with respect to IQ, although Steve has pointed out that maybe the problem is we've essentially made life for lower-IQ people untenable, and we ought to have places for them.

    A discriminating person would not recommend a lockdown, as if everyone were equal. A discriminating person would have locked down the elderly in February. We did not discriminate in any sense of the term.
    , @Anonymous
    As Thomas Aquinas is supposed to have said, "Beware of the man of one book." HBD attracts a crowd who see it as justification for whatever fringe political ideology, and perceive everything through the lens of that ideology even when it is completely inappropriate to do so.

    To his credit, Mr. Sailer is not this way. He never claimed to have the Rosetta Stone and conspicuously avoids expressing strong opinions on any field he isn't very well-versed in. Perhaps related, he may not have been the earliest to "sound the alarm" but his corona coverage has consistently solid the last few weeks.
    , @Rob
    What sort of insights from HBD would you expect to apply to coronavirus? Populations haven’t been under moderate to strong selection by corona viruses, so there probably aren’t strong population differences in how people respond to infection. Perhaps climate differences have led to Ace2 expression or allelic differences between populations. We can predict that blacks won’t respond to the lockdown very responsibly, but maybe you don’t need HBD for that. Perhaps HBD has some insights into the way Asian and white nations are responding.

    There’s a big difference between accepting g that population IQ differences are genetic, stable, and important for life outcomes, and being able to figure out whatever it is about SARS-CoV-2 that HBD such a disappointment to you.

    Could you describe in more detail how you expect insights from HBD to help with this?
  113. @Lot
    Here’s some happy news from England to cheer everyone up:

    “ After Corbyn, UK Labour elects Keir Starmer, Zionist with Jewish wife, as leader”

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/keir-starmer-elected-uk-labour-chief-apologizes-to-jews-for-party-anti-semitism/

    He’s a crusading civil rights anti White racist radical environmental barrister. He was the prosecutor who charged and prosecuted for racial crime the drug dealer thugs who killed their thug drug dealer Stephen Lawrence back in the 1990s. He made Stephen Lawrence the Marty and saint he is today. Kind of a William Kunstler, Yagman, Dershowitz, Gerry Spence lawyer.

    He’s just another anti White racist and anti business anti earning a living radical environmentalist instead of an old fashioned Marxist like Corbyn. Labour selected him because he’s a moderate. He’s in the still existing Trotskite wing of Labour Party.
    Maoist Corbyn radical. Trotskyite Radical environmentalist anti White activist is moderate.

  114. @Anonymous
    Jack D

    Nothing that you say in your overly verbose post negates Steve's major points -

    (1)Most people who become infected with this virus will not get very ill and recover.

    (2) A disproportionate number of those who get very ill and never recover are older people or people with severe comorbidities.

    (3) Unfortunately, there is a not too insignificant number of young and previously healthy patients with Covid-19 who end up in the ICU and never recover. As of right now, the health establishment has not identified a set of risk factors (genetic susceptibility, etc.) that put this group at danger.

    Point 3 is central to Steve's thesis. Most people assumed that the young and healthy were immune to the worst effects of this virus. This is true in most cases but not all. This fact that random young and healthy people can die from this thing is increasing people's anxiety.

    The young and healthy are not immune but the vast majority will experience this as a cold or flu like disease. They are not going to die from it. Yes if you are 25 and sick enough to be put in the ICU, you may die (not at as high a rate as 85 year olds in the ICU, but at a significant rate), but very few are. 25 year olds who are unlucky enough to be in the ICU as a result of pneumonia or trauma or anything else also die at a significant rate – the ICU is for people who are extremely sick and they can’t always save you if you are that sick already.

    A certain % of young people die when they eat a single shrimp. A few even die when they get a whiff of a platter of steaming shrimp pass their table. It’s not a zero risk. If you were to see them in anaphylactic shock, it’s horrifying. Their airways narrow, blocking breathing and they choke to death. It’s tragic. The question is, is it a serious risk , a large risk, or not? For those already in anaphylactic shock the risk is extremely high, but this is looking at the wrong end of the telescope.

    Here is the fatality rate in S. Korea:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105088/south-korea-coronavirus-mortality-rate-by-age/

    It range from .1% in to 30 to 39 group (999 out 1000 infected will survive) to 18.86% (8/10 infected will survive) in the 80+ group (they don’t even bother to measure under 30’s because it’s so low – essentially zero). Or in other words the risk to 80+ year olds is almost 200x greater than to a 30-39 year old. There’s a big, big difference.

    Keep in mind that if you are over 80 and in at least average health for your age, you STILL have a very good chance. It’s not a death sentence by any means. Some simple criteria would refine that even further – 80 year old without major comorbidity – maybe 90% survival. Those with, only 70% survival (made up numbers).

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Well - what do you know Jack D. As Ron Unz has pointed out, Covid-19 isn't global warming. We wont have to wait 30 years to figure out who is right and who is wrong.

    Boris Johnson, the 55 year old Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, was just admitted to the hospital 10 days after testing positive for coronavirus and experiencing minor symptoms. Yes - the guy doesn't look like a triathlete. However, all that really means is that he looks very much like the average 50+ male I encounter on a daily basis. Such males reasonably expect to live well into their 70s even without access to the quality of medical facilities and care that the leader of one of the most important countries in the world enjoys.

    Hopefully, he'll be one of the 50%+ that leaves the hospital on his own two feet. However, neither one of us if we were totally honest, would bet their 401k on it. That was the point of my post - the randomness of who this thing strikes hard. This is driving everyone's fear.
    , @The Alarmist

    A certain % of young people die when they eat a single shrimp. A few even die when they get a whiff of a platter of steaming shrimp pass their table.
     
    I thought for sure someone might go for the dreaded killer peanuts, which have been denied me on many flights because one child on the aircraft is allergic, but you really threw a curve-ball at us with the insidious killer prawn.

    Now that I reflect on this, we've figuratively grounded the entire flight because we have one or two passengers with allergies.

    , @Lot
    “ The young and healthy are not immune but the vast majority will experience this as a cold or flu like disease.”

    Even that’s overstating it. About half will be asymptomatic.
  115. @unit472
    To paraphrase Forrest Gump "Hospital is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get"! I had a wicked looking rash on my left calf. My PCP sent me to a dermatologist to have a look only she wasn't there so her nurse practitioner examined me and said it was just hives and gave me some ointment to put on it. The rash went away after a few weeks but then my urine turned amber. I had some blood work done and was told to report to the ER by my doc. I did and gave them a urine sample. Then a newly hired nurse ( I overheard her being asked if she knew how to insert a catheter in a man's penis) came in and put the device down my penis. She damaged my bladder and it began to bleed. To stop the bleeding they put a two liter bag of saline hanging above my bed to flush my bladder. Problem was blood clots and that blocked my urinary canal. My bladder was being pressurized and I was in agony. A nurse tried to massage my genitals to work the clots out but it kept happening. I was screaming in pain and finally just ripped all the tubing out of me. That enraged the nurses but they did track down a urologist who took the nurses out of my room and told them they were lucky they hadn't killed me. I was then taken to surgery to have my bladder repaired. NONE of this had anything to do with my actual problem.

    The rash on my calf was an early indicator or wegener's granulomatosis, a rare autoimmune disease that, in my case went on to attack my kidneys leaving me with only 11% capacity and condemned to dialysis for the rest of my life which will be short indeed if I get Covid-19

    Yeech. Stay safe, man. And take heart — not everyone here wants to consign you to the “so what? he was at death’s door anyway” bin.

  116. @Lot
    Here’s some happy news from England to cheer everyone up:

    “ After Corbyn, UK Labour elects Keir Starmer, Zionist with Jewish wife, as leader”

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/keir-starmer-elected-uk-labour-chief-apologizes-to-jews-for-party-anti-semitism/

    Lol, what a guy and what a party. They will cooperate with Boris against Corona-chan and otherwise it seems mainly occupy themselves with rooting out anti-semitism. Now that’s how you win elections!

    Though there are still some dark clouds over the Tel Aviv Candidate.

    Starmer is a member of Labour Friends of Palestine & the Middle East, a parliamentary group that promotes support for the Palestinians and campaigns for “peace and justice in the Middle East through the implementation of international law and respect for human rights.”

    Starmer drew criticism in 2017 when he invited a controversial anti-Israel charity to speak to the House of Commons. The Camden Abu Dis Friendship Association has praised Palestinian suicide bombers who targeted Israeli civilians during the Second Intifada.

    Suddenly there is a certain froideur in the room. Well, I’m sure this can be quietly adjusted in a nice back room. Or, if worst comes to worst, perhaps his wife can execute the Esther option.

    Finally, this sentence was independently funny.

    The Conservatives have also promised eye-watering sums to keep businesses and individuals afloat, wading into traditional Labour territory.

    • Replies: @FPD72
    Does the Balfour Declaration still express the will of the British government?
  117. @Erik L
    In the paper itself they list and break down the comorbidities that are considered "very severe":

    Very severe comorbidities*, n (%) [N=540]
    Cardiovascular
    Respiratory
    Renal
    Liver
    Metastatic disease
    Haematological malignancy
    Immunocompromise

    It doesn’t help to list some organs, because the relevant question is how severe the renal, liver etc. disease has to be to increase risk for COVID-19. A big share of the population has medical problems with at least on of the named organs.

    • Replies: @Erik L
    I think we can infer. Severe renal disease would be some level of renal failure. Hepatic disease has to be at least hepatitis. etc.
  118. @theMann
    England's current population is given as 67,797,568 persons. If the figure of 2249 persons in ICU at the moment is for all of England, then the rate of infection for you to be sick enough to end up in ICU is .0000331723 %. Wow, the second coming of the Black Death. Not to mention that the death rate SHOULD be 0%, since we know how to cure this illness.

    Or alternately, you could try an ounce of prevention, eating something high in Vitamin C while sitting in front of a sun lamp. (or the actual Sun where I live, not an option yet everywhere.)

    But clearly, it makes much more sense for the entire world to collectively shit their pants while destroying their Economies over an illness of very low lethality, with a known set of cures, and a known methodology for prevention.


    Men take responsibility for their actions, and their health. So in all seriousness:

    Are we men, or are we Lab Rats?

    England’s current population is given as 67,797,568 persons.

    No it isn’t.

    You’ve just offended everyone in Ecclefechan, Auchtermuchty, Cwmystwyth and Llanfair­pwllgwyngyll­gogery­chwyrn­drobwll­llan­tysilio­gogo­goch. Not to mention these places:

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    Walking on that hillside seems a good way to social-distance. But it is outdoors and may now be illegal.
  119. @j mct
    I guess that really is the human condition, stuff like this virus just make it less easy to ignore, like we do most of the time.

    It's not the pig condition though. I have a farmer brother in law how raises pigs, though he isn't a pig farmer, he does it on the side, and raises about a dozen of them every year, slaughtering them in October. Very good bacon. When he slaughters them though, he just puts an apple on the ground, they come over, one at a time as he lets them and he uses a special kind of pistol at pops them behind the ear. Then he puts down more apple for the next one, right next to the previous one, who watched the whole thing, who sprints off to the bait when it's his turn. Pigs don't get death. Some people say elephants get it, but other than that possibility, only humans understand death.

    Or he might have bred really dumb pigs. Wild animals are a bit less, um, sanguine about being killed. (Including wild pigs, I’d like to note. Pests.)

    • Replies: @j mct
    Animals do get pain suffering, getting bitten....

    The "undiscovered country from who's bourne no traveler returns" yada yada yada, they don't get, just like the don't get matrix algebra. Slaughtering animals efficiently is to do it without triggering the things that aren't death qua death, but generally in the wild do lead to death, that trigger them.
  120. • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital.

     

    Sure, I buy it.

    "Hey, look, this pandemic is serious, even the PM is sick. Better give even yet more emergency powers to the elites to control the population."
  121. @BB753
    Recent studies show that patients who have recovered from covid-19 end up with most of their vital organs severely damaged, not just the lungs. Kidneys, heart, even the brain.
    If these patients haven't developed a resistance to covid-19 or its future variants, there'll be a spike in mortality next winter, when covid-19 and influenza make a comeback.

    Recent studies show that patients who have recovered from covid-19 end up with most of their vital organs severely damaged, not just the lungs. Kidneys, heart, even the brain.

    First I’ve heard of that. Got a link?

    • Replies: @BB753
    Try these:

    https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200370

    http://kjfy.meetingchina.org/msite/news/show/cn/3337.html

    https://www.livescience.com/woman-with-covid19-coronavirus-had-rare-brain-disease.html
  122. Anonymous[284] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    The young and healthy are not immune but the vast majority will experience this as a cold or flu like disease. They are not going to die from it. Yes if you are 25 and sick enough to be put in the ICU, you may die (not at as high a rate as 85 year olds in the ICU, but at a significant rate), but very few are. 25 year olds who are unlucky enough to be in the ICU as a result of pneumonia or trauma or anything else also die at a significant rate - the ICU is for people who are extremely sick and they can't always save you if you are that sick already.

    A certain % of young people die when they eat a single shrimp. A few even die when they get a whiff of a platter of steaming shrimp pass their table. It's not a zero risk. If you were to see them in anaphylactic shock, it's horrifying. Their airways narrow, blocking breathing and they choke to death. It's tragic. The question is, is it a serious risk , a large risk, or not? For those already in anaphylactic shock the risk is extremely high, but this is looking at the wrong end of the telescope.

    Here is the fatality rate in S. Korea:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105088/south-korea-coronavirus-mortality-rate-by-age/

    It range from .1% in to 30 to 39 group (999 out 1000 infected will survive) to 18.86% (8/10 infected will survive) in the 80+ group (they don't even bother to measure under 30's because it's so low - essentially zero). Or in other words the risk to 80+ year olds is almost 200x greater than to a 30-39 year old. There's a big, big difference.

    Keep in mind that if you are over 80 and in at least average health for your age, you STILL have a very good chance. It's not a death sentence by any means. Some simple criteria would refine that even further - 80 year old without major comorbidity - maybe 90% survival. Those with, only 70% survival (made up numbers).

    Well – what do you know Jack D. As Ron Unz has pointed out, Covid-19 isn’t global warming. We wont have to wait 30 years to figure out who is right and who is wrong.

    Boris Johnson, the 55 year old Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, was just admitted to the hospital 10 days after testing positive for coronavirus and experiencing minor symptoms. Yes – the guy doesn’t look like a triathlete. However, all that really means is that he looks very much like the average 50+ male I encounter on a daily basis. Such males reasonably expect to live well into their 70s even without access to the quality of medical facilities and care that the leader of one of the most important countries in the world enjoys.

    Hopefully, he’ll be one of the 50%+ that leaves the hospital on his own two feet. However, neither one of us if we were totally honest, would bet their 401k on it. That was the point of my post – the randomness of who this thing strikes hard. This is driving everyone’s fear.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    the randomness of who this thing strikes hard. This is driving everyone’s fear.
     
    It's not really random in any true sense. It's random in the way lightning strikes are random but people who are out on the golf course and who take refuge under tall trees get hit a lot more than other people do. 55 year olds die of Wuhan Virus a LOT more than 15 year olds. People who are overweight and maybe diabetic die of it a lot more than those who are not overweight. Etc. This is probably equally true of seasonal flu but seasonal flu has a mortality of maybe .1% total so we don't notice it as much.

    Part of the problem is, as someone else said, there are a lot of people who are, OTOH not 87 and in the memory ward of a nursing home but OTOH are not 22 and in prime athletic shape either. To say that this doesn't harm people who are in good health is not that reassuring because there are a lot of people nowadays who are not in perfect health but who (up until now) were being kept alive for a long time anyway due to modern medicine.

    Johnson, unfortunately , seems to have taken a turn for the worse and is now in intensive care.
  123. @black sea

    However, all of us are human and of course we do not want to read about people just like us dying from coronavirus any more than pigs in line to be slaughtered listening to the squeals from the front of the line want to accept that they will soon be pork chops.

     

    I realize this may be dispiriting, but your comment put me in mind of the words of Blaise Pascal.

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”

    Blah, blah, blah. Pascal’s a downer.

    Life is beautiful. A precious gift from God. Chocolate chip cookies. Learning and figuring stuff out. Your first good kiss. Popping some corn to hang out with your mom. Throwing a perfect spiral, right to your guy’s fingertips. Your first real paycheck. Beating a bigger man off the dribble. The accomplishment of honest labor. Heart pounding, a bit winded … taking in a mountain vista. A the smile of a pretty young woman … or the feel of her curves in your arms. Holding your child in your arms. Reading stories to your kids, then having them read the stories to you. The noisy serene quiet of the deep forest. Your kids sleeping in the minivan rolling down the highway toward some national park. Your kids graduating high school, graduating college, finding a husband or wife, and … taking your place. Surfer girls in bikinis on your retirement beach. A beautiful sunset. Christmas morning with your grandkids. Reading stories to them and telling them about your life and their world.

    Life:
    — Case fatality rate: 100%
    — Best damn thing imaginable.

    • Agree: Lot, ic1000
    • Thanks: Bill Jones
    • Replies: @Charon
    The only trouble I see with all these wonderful things (and many more I'd add) is that they are being taken from us, one by one, and trampled, devalued, denigrated, defamed and destroyed.

    Generally by people who shouldn't even be in our country. Or should I say, what used to be our country. Already I can hear Corvy saying "So what are you going to do about it?" What would you recommend?

    , @Charon

    Life:
    — Case fatality rate: 100%
    — Best damn thing imaginable.
     
    You forgot to add : L'chaim!
  124. @SFG
    Then maybe the just-in-time supply chain is part of the problem. What did we do before that?

    Then maybe the just-in-time supply chain is part of the problem. What did we do before that?

    We paid more for crap actually made in the USA.

    • Replies: @anon
    In Australia here, the locally made crap wasn't bad quality and the better stuff was reasonably priced.
    Now it's all crap.
    Yeah, it's cheap crap but how many pairs of non repairable shoes does anyone need?
  125. @Jack D
    The young and healthy are not immune but the vast majority will experience this as a cold or flu like disease. They are not going to die from it. Yes if you are 25 and sick enough to be put in the ICU, you may die (not at as high a rate as 85 year olds in the ICU, but at a significant rate), but very few are. 25 year olds who are unlucky enough to be in the ICU as a result of pneumonia or trauma or anything else also die at a significant rate - the ICU is for people who are extremely sick and they can't always save you if you are that sick already.

    A certain % of young people die when they eat a single shrimp. A few even die when they get a whiff of a platter of steaming shrimp pass their table. It's not a zero risk. If you were to see them in anaphylactic shock, it's horrifying. Their airways narrow, blocking breathing and they choke to death. It's tragic. The question is, is it a serious risk , a large risk, or not? For those already in anaphylactic shock the risk is extremely high, but this is looking at the wrong end of the telescope.

    Here is the fatality rate in S. Korea:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105088/south-korea-coronavirus-mortality-rate-by-age/

    It range from .1% in to 30 to 39 group (999 out 1000 infected will survive) to 18.86% (8/10 infected will survive) in the 80+ group (they don't even bother to measure under 30's because it's so low - essentially zero). Or in other words the risk to 80+ year olds is almost 200x greater than to a 30-39 year old. There's a big, big difference.

    Keep in mind that if you are over 80 and in at least average health for your age, you STILL have a very good chance. It's not a death sentence by any means. Some simple criteria would refine that even further - 80 year old without major comorbidity - maybe 90% survival. Those with, only 70% survival (made up numbers).

    A certain % of young people die when they eat a single shrimp. A few even die when they get a whiff of a platter of steaming shrimp pass their table.

    I thought for sure someone might go for the dreaded killer peanuts, which have been denied me on many flights because one child on the aircraft is allergic, but you really threw a curve-ball at us with the insidious killer prawn.

    Now that I reflect on this, we’ve figuratively grounded the entire flight because we have one or two passengers with allergies.

  126. Anonymous[425] • Disclaimer says: • Website

    This is the way to go.

    • Replies: @utu
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PhdParody/status/1236676350045556736
    , @SFG
    I don't know. They miss all the time.
  127. Breaking news: British Prime Minster Johnson admitted to hospital: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/05/boris-johnson-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus
    He’s had the virus for 10 days and has shown no signs of recovery or improvement. His heavily pregnant companion is also infected.

  128. anonymous[422] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dmitry
    "Lockdown" in the UK, is still quite weak, unfortunately. It is not known if this will be sufficient to reduce the rate of infection below 1 (if yes, then it will be very good news about the controllability of the epidemic).

    The behaviour of the public has been disobedient of directives for how people should behave during an epidemic.

    Situations you can see in supermarkets are a real disaster. Lots of people are touching things in supermarkets (including products), without wearing gloves. People talking to each other and talking to staff, people queuing for checkouts close together ignoring instructions to stand apart, and most people are without masks, let alone goggles. A minority proportion of people have been wearing disposable masks.

    And this behaviour includes a lot of nerdy looking demographics, who are probably professors, engineers, scientists, i.e. people who should understand the germ theory of disease. Moreover, there are old people with grey hair behaving like this despite their higher risk from this particular virus – without masks and goggles.

    Gloves are a false security blanket. You touch something with the virus and it’s now on your gloves. You’d have to change your gloves frequently to be safe depending on what you’re doing. Think how easy it would be to spread the virus with gloves from touching an unclean shopping cart handle or infected products, pull out your CC to pay, and then touch your car door handle and steering wheel. You’ve now potentially infected your wallet, CC and car. It’s much better and easier to use hand sanitizer as needed. When you bring your stuff home, you can either disinfect the items or quarantine them for up to 3 days when the virus has degraded enough to be safe.

    • Replies: @Travis
    where can I buy hand sanitizer ? None was available at any local stores for the last 3 weeks here in New Jersey nor is it available via Amazon.
  129. @Reg Cæsar

    ...you don’t want to go into the ICU.
     
    Nobody goes there anymore-- it's too crowded.

    You certainly don't want to go there in South Africa. That's where patients were dying every Friday night in one ICU. It was always on Friday.

    It took them weeks to discover that the cleaning lady was unplugging the equipment so she could wax the floor.

    Basically...
     
    Nostalgia. My kids were watching music videos from the '80s today. That's the era when every other sentence began with "Basically..."

    In the '70s it was "totally". It was more the concept than the word; publishers put out many books with "Compleat" in the title.

    "Essentially" and its many synonyms took over in the '90s. I stopped paying attention after that, essentially.

    I’ll get you up to date then. Several years ago, people began every sentence with the word “So”. That got old so now they start every sentence with “Okay so…”

    Happy to be of service.

    P.S. What might be next?

    • Replies: @Cortes
    “Well now”

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bliZhksbnTg
  130. @ic1000
    A little off-topic: How do people get infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus?

    Documented transmission by fomite (e.g. doorknobs), droplets (6' distancing), and aerosols (out to 20'). So what are the relative importances/frequencies of these modes?

    Here's the 4-hour intercity bus ride that symptomatic "Patient A" took. The person sitting next to him: not infected.
    https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2020/03/11/2367f83c-61fc-11ea-8e9f-2d196083a37c_972x_161511.jpg

    A related question is whether how you get infected affects the course of your illness. Siddhartha Mukherjee in the 3/26/20 New Yorker points to studies suggesting that a high initial viral load (e.g. getting sneezed on by somebody shedding lots of virus) likely leads or more severe disease. In the April 1 NYT (not paywalled), two Princeton academics make the same point.

    So what are the low-hanging fruit, in terms of behaviors? ICU doc David Price emphasizes hand-washing and Purell at the 13:50 mark of this 3/22/20 video. Are gloves necessary? Decontaminating mail?

    It'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the relative risks.

    Fascinating, but 1) how did they figure out the 30-minute infection case and especially 2) how is it that no one got on or off the bus at intervals, no seats were empty, and there were no standees?

    I’ll go look at the article and see if these fairly obvious questions were addressed. I’m always skeptical of data which are neat and tidy.

  131. fatter and older Mr. Sailer, that’s all you need to know. exceptions such as the couple dozen under-50 dead “kids” pumped full of meds and ventilated (as if this was SARS?) prove the rule. oh and if these are “kids”, do under-50 Mexican illegals get DACA too?

    you don’t wanna go to the ICU (specially not to a substandard crowded one such as the British NHS), then don’t worry, you probably won’t. it’s been weeks and months since the virus is airborne, and according to the blessed models millions are supposed to be infected and hundreds of thousands dead, right? specially among all the cancer patients that the hyperstressful and polluted wasp-modern lifestyle has created (yes, i know stress and toil are important to Christians, but Protestants give those virtues more latria than Catholics to the Virgin…)

    if this is a part of the flu family, it’s impossible for most of the planet not to have it already. the Chinese have colonies everywhere, after all. and all the global rich love the Alps in the winter. so let’s just lock up the weak (and/or Boomers) safely and move on.

  132. iirc your particular cancer is associated with epstein-barr, that is the jeffrey epstein-william barr virus.

    and it is an AIDS associated cancer.

    but there are many types of NHL. for example, finland has its own professional hockey league.

    this is NOT to say that you steve contracted some bug due to perversions of one sort or another.

    but before throwing out the parable of the garden one should see in full how bad things often happen to good people because bad people doing bad shit.

  133. @AnotherDad

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”
     

    Blah, blah, blah. Pascal's a downer.

    Life is beautiful. A precious gift from God. Chocolate chip cookies. Learning and figuring stuff out. Your first good kiss. Popping some corn to hang out with your mom. Throwing a perfect spiral, right to your guy's fingertips. Your first real paycheck. Beating a bigger man off the dribble. The accomplishment of honest labor. Heart pounding, a bit winded ... taking in a mountain vista. A the smile of a pretty young woman ... or the feel of her curves in your arms. Holding your child in your arms. Reading stories to your kids, then having them read the stories to you. The noisy serene quiet of the deep forest. Your kids sleeping in the minivan rolling down the highway toward some national park. Your kids graduating high school, graduating college, finding a husband or wife, and ... taking your place. Surfer girls in bikinis on your retirement beach. A beautiful sunset. Christmas morning with your grandkids. Reading stories to them and telling them about your life and their world.

    Life:
    -- Case fatality rate: 100%
    -- Best damn thing imaginable.

    The only trouble I see with all these wonderful things (and many more I’d add) is that they are being taken from us, one by one, and trampled, devalued, denigrated, defamed and destroyed.

    Generally by people who shouldn’t even be in our country. Or should I say, what used to be our country. Already I can hear Corvy saying “So what are you going to do about it?” What would you recommend?

  134. Ray says:
    @OtherPaul
    Just wondering if anyone is tabulating total mortality rate of the entire population from all causes. Also wondering if anyone is performing random sample testing of a population.

    By the above account, the virus is certainly terrible, and it seems innovative and likely there will need to be increased resources to overcome it. Under an environment of a rapidly contracting economy, where are these resources to come from?

    Given the economic costs of current policies are becoming more clear and a marginally improved mortality information provided here (if, however, abstracted from the rest of the world), might we come up with a less expensive policy plan than mass impoverishment?

    Yes , the average number of deaths per week here in the UK from all causes in typically 1600 to 17 per week. The numbers are up a little in the last couple of week – increased by the Chinese flu but lower in terms of flu, hepatitis , car accidents . There was an article about this in the online magazine Unherd a couple of days .

  135. @Achmed E. Newman
    a) I've said this before, but they (most, at least) don't blame you for being a smoker. They just wanted to assign an obvious reason so they can live with less worry about it themselves, and yeah, figure they will never die. OK, maybe better phrasing would be "they wanted to blame your cancer on smoking." How about that?

    b) Yes, staying in the hospital can be bad for you. Lying around, getting no more than 2 hours sleep at a time, cause they wake you on THEIR SCHEDULE for new drips of this, new pricks for the other thing, etc., and being in an environment so different from home is not good for you. Then, there are the screw-ups, which happen quite often.

    Oh 3 more words: National Health Service. Steve, if the NHS had been around back in the day, the English Patient would have not been able to be a full-length feature film.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5qalNX5G94

    I would suggest a third category: c.) hospital acquired infections, which become more likely the more crowded a hospital gets.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  136. @Mike1
    You are reading it right. Studies like this have been available since January. I sold my house and stocks when I read a similar study published by Wuhan doctors. Their death rate for critical patients was 61% and (despite what endless "just the flu!" or "what about people who don't go to hospital!" idiots) the data left out a lot of dead or soon to be dead people. This study does the same - but it does point that out more clearly.

    I have also noticed that people that have experienced a tough period or tragedy in their life seem to have more of a clue about what is happening. It is not IQ based.

    I’ve experienced some tough times medically and also some tough times financially, as have a lot of people. I’m a senior citizen and somewhat vulnerable; I’m also employed and would like to stay that way for a while longer. I think I can see both sides of this. I’d also, if I’m lucky enough to live another 15 years or longer, like to spend those years not observing the utter and complete collapse of Western Civilization. Don’t tell me health vs. wealth.

    • Agree: vhrm, Polynikes
    • Replies: @Mike1
    It's only stupid vs not stupid. There are no other paradigms here.

    All my businesses are closed so the financial impact is apparent to me.
  137. @Corvinus
    "But isn’t this how free markets are supposed to work, letting the market discover efficient pricing?"

    In a f---- pandemic? NO. The federal and state governments during this NATIONAL crisis should NOT be bidding against one another. Rather, there should be cooperation and mutual aid, as promised by Trump. Recall that FDR set the production and distribution of materials during World War II, converted peacetime industries to meet the demands of war--which we are in!--and rationed scarce supplies.

    Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    Merkel is Chamberlain & Putin is Franco.
    Trump is Hitler (loser) and Xi Ping Pong is Roosevelt.
    Boris is...in hospital.
    , @Corvinus
    "Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc."

    Don't be obtuse. It's our government's RESPONSE that matters to this global pandemic to our citizens. The logic is quite simple--Fewer personal interactions under lockdown means a slower rate of community transmission and infections, keeping the direct acute care rate "manageable". But the problem is that Trump is getting in the way of having a coherent strategy by which the states and localities are part of the solution and not deemed as "competitors".

    Do you really want Jared Kushner, a Jew, running the Covid-19 response team? I mean, I keep hearing time and time again from a myriad of posters here that Jews ought NOT to be trusted in positions of authority, right?

    , @Hypnotoad666

    Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.
     
    IDK, But the guy who started the whole thing by eating a bad bowl of bat soup is definitely the Gavrilo Princip of the current World War V.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/Gavrilo_Princip%2C_prison%2C_infobox_crop.jpg/220px-Gavrilo_Princip%2C_prison%2C_infobox_crop.jpg

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavrilo_Princip
  138. The Imperial College team led by Neil Ferguson anticipated the poor outcome of ICU treatment.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR).

    This raises an awkward issue. We were told that the purpose of the lockdown is to prevent ICU beds being overwhelmed by demand. Nobody bothered to mention that when a patient has reached the stage at which they need ICU treatment, it will give them only a 50% chance of survival. Better than 0% without ICU, for sure, but not a silver bullet against coronavirus.

    • Replies: @Cortes
    Perhaps my information is out of date but my understanding is that there’s a three stage classification of hospital in-patients: routine, Acute, then Intensive.

    I’ve been in an Acute unit in the NHS and was and remain very grateful for the care delivered. The experience makes me think that poor souls who have to be looked after in ICUs must indeed be hanging onto life by a gossamer thread and a positive outcome for them should be regarded as a bonus rather than a given.

  139. @Reg Cæsar

    ...you don’t want to go into the ICU.
     
    Nobody goes there anymore-- it's too crowded.

    You certainly don't want to go there in South Africa. That's where patients were dying every Friday night in one ICU. It was always on Friday.

    It took them weeks to discover that the cleaning lady was unplugging the equipment so she could wax the floor.

    Basically...
     
    Nostalgia. My kids were watching music videos from the '80s today. That's the era when every other sentence began with "Basically..."

    In the '70s it was "totally". It was more the concept than the word; publishers put out many books with "Compleat" in the title.

    "Essentially" and its many synonyms took over in the '90s. I stopped paying attention after that, essentially.

    Nostalgia. My kids were watching music videos from the ’80s today. That’s the era when every other sentence began with “Basically…”

    In the ’70s it was “totally”. It was more the concept than the word; publishers put out many books with “Compleat” in the title.

    “Essentially” and its many synonyms took over in the ’90s. I stopped paying attention after that, essentially.

    “Totally” is used by frivolous middle-class people. “Basically” is used by earnest middle-class people. “Essentially” is used by upper-middle-class people who look down on the aforementioned two groups. But they all mean the same thing: “uuuuuuh”.

  140. @Jack D
    The young and healthy are not immune but the vast majority will experience this as a cold or flu like disease. They are not going to die from it. Yes if you are 25 and sick enough to be put in the ICU, you may die (not at as high a rate as 85 year olds in the ICU, but at a significant rate), but very few are. 25 year olds who are unlucky enough to be in the ICU as a result of pneumonia or trauma or anything else also die at a significant rate - the ICU is for people who are extremely sick and they can't always save you if you are that sick already.

    A certain % of young people die when they eat a single shrimp. A few even die when they get a whiff of a platter of steaming shrimp pass their table. It's not a zero risk. If you were to see them in anaphylactic shock, it's horrifying. Their airways narrow, blocking breathing and they choke to death. It's tragic. The question is, is it a serious risk , a large risk, or not? For those already in anaphylactic shock the risk is extremely high, but this is looking at the wrong end of the telescope.

    Here is the fatality rate in S. Korea:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105088/south-korea-coronavirus-mortality-rate-by-age/

    It range from .1% in to 30 to 39 group (999 out 1000 infected will survive) to 18.86% (8/10 infected will survive) in the 80+ group (they don't even bother to measure under 30's because it's so low - essentially zero). Or in other words the risk to 80+ year olds is almost 200x greater than to a 30-39 year old. There's a big, big difference.

    Keep in mind that if you are over 80 and in at least average health for your age, you STILL have a very good chance. It's not a death sentence by any means. Some simple criteria would refine that even further - 80 year old without major comorbidity - maybe 90% survival. Those with, only 70% survival (made up numbers).

    “ The young and healthy are not immune but the vast majority will experience this as a cold or flu like disease.”

    Even that’s overstating it. About half will be asymptomatic.

  141. @Alden
    The sky is falling, the sky is falling. I don’t believe any official statistics and information about the Chinese virus from any country, province county city or medical center.

    As for infectious ICUs I was in an ICU for 6 weeks and didn’t catch any diseases. I was in a private ICU room. That may have helped but the constantly in and out medics weren’t masked gloved and gowned. Plus it was a teaching hospital so I was hostess to hordes of ortho & surgery residents plus interns and med students several times a day.

    Some say I’m just too cynical and racist. Some say every opinion and fact I’ve ever mentioned is absolutely right.

    There’s an interesting thread on conservativetreehouse. Title is something like “ On the ground healthcare focus What’s going on in your city or neighborhood?” Comments include medics noting they’re out of work and can’t pay next months bills for their clinics and practices because of the no elective procedures rules. Lots of elective procedures aren’t really elective. They need to be done. Not immediately but in the near future.

    . Completely different prospective from the media hysteria. Well worth reading

    Once about 7 years ago when i was in the hospital for soething serious I had, one morning, somewhere between 5 and 10 medical students gathered around me, led by their professor. he asked me a few questions and I answered. How much could they have learned? was it worth the aggravation? (My aggravation)

    • Replies: @Cortes
    Perhaps the real learning experience is often best done at a diplomatic remove from the patient? It’s likely to be difficult to be able to question the students frankly in the presence of the subject:

    “So, did any of you form a view about Mr X’s statement that he has never used tobacco/alcohol/heroin and cannot fathom why he should be affected by COPD/liver failure/AIDS?”

  142. The most intense infection in theUK is in Gwent in South Wales counting 10 days back from the cumulative deaths figure of 166 gives a case figure of 741. This is, as a working approximation, a 22% CFR which is staggering by earlier standards. Gwent did more testing than anywhere in the UK so it was not just the most severe cases being counted. This thing is getting more virulent.

    https://coronaviruscymru.wales/graphs-%26-timeline

  143. SF says:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

    The 16-49 age group is 43.4% of the population of the UK, but 8.4% of the deaths recorded in this study.. The 70+ age group is 13.2 % of the population, but 50.6% of the deaths.
    Thus, the over 70 group is 19.6 times more likely to die than the 16-49 age group.
    This considers only deaths in intensive care. The table above has a 15-19 cohort, which I reduced by 20% to match the 16-19 in Steve’s study.

  144. I fear for Boris Johnson. He is very important for the UK and Brexit

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    I fear for Boris Johnson. He is very important for the UK and Brexit
     
    Social distancing should hurry it along, though, no matter who is in charge.

    Travel from the UK to France:
    Our passenger shuttle services continue to operate. Please check carefully before travelling to Folkestone, as you may be turned away by the French Authorities if you don't have good reason to travel within France. They have advised us that they will only allow travel for the following reasons:

    Going home to a main residence
    Essential work in France
    Medical staff

    NO HOLIDAYS OR SOCIAL VISITS

    There are restrictions on all movements within France that mean people are only allowed to be on the roads if they have completed a certificate and have it with them. This page explains the circumstances under which people are allowed to travel within France.

    Travel from France to the UK:
    Our passenger shuttle services continue to operate but the shops and cafés in our terminal building in France have had to close due to new French regulations. There are no current restrictions by the authorities on travel from France to the UK, but the UK Government have advised that travel within the UK should only take place if it's essential.


    https://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/travelling-with-us/latest/covid-19/
     

  145. @Lot
    More good news:

    NY daily deaths dropped yesterday
    Italian deaths Saturday lowest in 10 days
    Spain has third day of lower totals
    Bill Gates estimates US deaths will be “well short” of Trump’s 100k statement

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/05/bill-gates-coronavirus-pandemic-a-nightmare-scenario.html

    On the economic front, Chinese tax revenue data from February isn’t as bad as I’d expect: VAT down 19% and overall down 9%.

    Possible vaccine breakthrough: researchers in La Jolla are looking for people who fully recovered from CV to donate blood to further their research:

    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/science/story/2020-04-03/scripps-research-find-evidence-of-an-anchilles-heel

    ‘Bill Gates estimates US deaths will be “well short” of Trump’s 100k statement’

    There goes President Literally Hitler lying to us again.

    • Replies: @keypusher
    There goes President Literally Hitler lying to us again.

    No, it's President LH not having a clue.

  146. @AnotherDad

    The death toll is almost certainly massively underreported.
     
    Oh please.

    No doubt they've missed a few upfront when the testing was a mess. But you, i even the cats and dogs know all the politics pushes the other way.

    They aren't short of testing now. Any death that's Wuhan virus positive will be a covid-19 death and probably any respiratory death that looks like it will get tossed in as well.

    They are very short on testing now. Talk to any health care worker. They will tell you.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    Your anecdotes are worth little. All evidence points to deaths being inflated.
    , @Getaclue
    Under the CDC Guidelines they need NO test to decree any death as CV-- seems to encourage placing any death possible on to the CV heap if you read it -- this seems to be the standard all over-- the Italian numbers were said in reality to be about 12% of what is stated-- the intentional overstatement of numbers to create hysteria and panic is criminal but it has been and is happening-- wonder why?

    WHO did it out of the gate with its incredibly inflated death "projection" as did the London "Expert" who claimed millions to die (by his "Model") and then walked it back to under 20,000 after it was clear he would be called out-- his numbers were used to crash the World Economy and Trump used them also in deciding to do the same to the USA--basically fraud -- I read it is this same "Expert"/Clown/Fraud who gave us "Social Distancing" and that there is ZERO Scientific evidence it has any validity as to this Cold Virus -- some anecdotal events were cited but nothing that should have caused it to be implemented on this massive scale--likewise there is serious evidence that Mass Quarantining might well SPREAD this Virus more than stop it -- the WHO Head with his phony projections? "ex" violent Ethiopian Marxist Revolutionary put in by the ChiComs -- what is someone like that doing there?

    Likewise the Gates Foundation "Model" is being used -- highly inflated and inaccurate "adjusted daily" LOL -- and Gates (Mr. "depopulation") has been pimping a pandemic like this to implement Mass Vaccinations/"chipping" and the NWO Agenda for years now--somehow he's an "Expert" too like the London "Expert"/Fraud-- the "event" is clearly being used as a "reset" of the World economy and the Banksters are using it to cover years of fraud etc. -- the hyping of deaths, not done as to Flu or any other morbidity previously, is a propaganda method to cause mass hysteria and compliance with the "Medical Martial Law" agenda they are now calling "the New Normal"-- no way any of this just "happened" -- another 911 by different means only more drastic-- the "terrorists" are now microscopic, invisible, everywhere, and never going away....

  147. There you have your English patient:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/05/uk/boris-johnson-hospital-coronavirus/index.html

    UK PM Boris Johnson admitted to hospital for tests

  148. @Paleo Liberal
    The death toll is almost certainly massively underreported.

    First, if we accept the Wuhan death toll, we would have to believe the Chinese weren’t trying to underplay she numbers. Some have estimated over 40,000 unexplained deaths. But those bodies have been cremated, so no proof.

    In Italy, the excess number of people dying was far greater than the reported Coronavirus deaths.

    In the US, it has been established that there are quite a few false negatives, not to mention people who died before being tested. Quite a few deaths by respiratory disease not reported as Coronavirus.

    My wife is a health care worker. She treated an unusual number of patients with respiratory symptoms who were never tested for Coronavirus.

    Sorry, but the people trying to downplay this as people who would have died anyway doesn’t work. Of course everyone dies sometime. But these are people who are dying years, or even decades, before their time. There is at least one recorded death by Coronavirus of a newborn baby.

    Chinese underestimation: here is a blog post discussing a paper arguing that, as of Feb. 8, the number of infections worldwide was not very large (55,800, with a 95% confidence interval from 17,500 to 194,400), and therefore the official Chinese statistics, though they are no doubt imperfect, are probably not wildly off. The basis for the argument is that, judging from an analysis of 53 coronavirus genomes, the virus is not as mutated as you would expect if it had spread through a much larger number of people. I’m not competent to evaluate the argument, but it’s being advanced (though not endorsed) by competent people. There is some pushback in the comments, some of it also sounding pretty well informed.

    https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/04/04/perhaps-the-chinese-government-is-not-covering-up-the-number-of-covid-19-cases/

    As far as the covid death/infection counts, there are factors pushing them toward being too high, identified by , and factors pushing them toward being too low, identified by you. I have a couple of friends who I’m pretty confident had coronavirus, but they never got so bad that they had to be hospitalized, and neither was tested, so they don’t show up in the statistics. On the other hand the coding for covid as cause of death is aggressive, and as more people are tested, more infections are found.

    What I suspect is the most valuable statistic at the moment is corona hospitalizations…which have been relatively stable in New York over the past 10 days or so, according to the city website. I think the city may be at its apex for hospitalizations, though probably not for deaths.

  149. @Alden
    The sky is falling, the sky is falling. I don’t believe any official statistics and information about the Chinese virus from any country, province county city or medical center.

    As for infectious ICUs I was in an ICU for 6 weeks and didn’t catch any diseases. I was in a private ICU room. That may have helped but the constantly in and out medics weren’t masked gloved and gowned. Plus it was a teaching hospital so I was hostess to hordes of ortho & surgery residents plus interns and med students several times a day.

    Some say I’m just too cynical and racist. Some say every opinion and fact I’ve ever mentioned is absolutely right.

    There’s an interesting thread on conservativetreehouse. Title is something like “ On the ground healthcare focus What’s going on in your city or neighborhood?” Comments include medics noting they’re out of work and can’t pay next months bills for their clinics and practices because of the no elective procedures rules. Lots of elective procedures aren’t really elective. They need to be done. Not immediately but in the near future.

    . Completely different prospective from the media hysteria. Well worth reading

    “WHAT IS HAPPENING IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD?”

    Where is there a website of normal people whi can inform the public and be informed by them about what is happening in waxh and every area?

    The media is untrustworthy.

    And the non-media writers are mainly folk who LOVE quarantines and haven’t left their closet-office in 6 months anyway.

    Where are threads where people report NOT what they heard or read about -(even if it’s about people they have some vague connection to) but what they KNOW about themselves, their neighborhoods, and people close enough to them that they actually talk to them. Close enough, that they spoke to them even before this whole coronavirus hysteria.

    The moods and preferences of “type-not-talk” Agoraphobes what to be taken into account when reading them.

  150. Steve, the comorbidities they list are super extreme that it’s almost impossible to determine what “healthy” means in this report’s context. Here are the “very severe comorbidities” that they listed:

    • Cardiovascular: symptoms at rest
    • Respiratory: shortness of breath with light activity or home ventilation
    • Renal: RRT for end-stage renal disease
    • Liver: biopsy-proven cirrhosis, portal hypertension or hepatic encephalopathy;
    • Metastatic disease: distant metastases
    • Haematological malignancy: acute or chronic leukaemia, multiple myeloma or lymphoma
    • Immunocompromise: chemotherapy, radiotherapy or daily high dose steroid treatment in previous 6 months, HIV/AIDS or congenital immune deficiency

    These are absurdly “severe” situations — as an example, having “cardiovascular symptoms at rest” is a code word for “unstable angina”, which often means you literally need to be catheterized. Liver literally says “biopsy-proven cirrhosis” – so if you drink 15 drinks a day with elevated liver function tests, but never had a biopsy done, you’re not counted as “having a comorbidity”. And if you had all of those but 7 months ago, and now you’re better (say, for things that are solvable like “cardiovascular symptoms at rest”), you’re not counted as “having a comorbidity”.

    Things that are NOT included: mild COPD, asthma, a history of multiple heart attacks that required stenting or cardiac bypass, severe diabetes (even that which lead to ketoacidosis or diabetic coma), stage 3 cancer (with local metastases), history of stroke (heck, a person who is literally stroking out doesn’t appear to qualify as having a “severe comorbidity” here), history of brain/breast/other organ cancer with surgical excision 6.01 months ago, etc etc. These people would qualify as “healthy” in this report.

    I don’t mean to cast shade on the physicians/medical professionals who created the data — they’re trying to put out this data as quickly as possible and went with the most confirmed severe diagnoses they had while trying to save people’s lives in this crisis. But there’s a huge caveat to “those that are healthy and those that are not” in this data set.

    Take it with a major heaping of salt. As an aside, the data will get more granular as we get more of it.

    -Visionary (physician in NYC)

    • Thanks: John Achterhof
    • Replies: @keypusher
    Steve, the comorbidities they list are super extreme that it’s almost impossible to determine what “healthy” means in this report’s context. Here are the “very severe comorbidities” that they listed:

    Who gives a damn, since that is only 7% of the sample? And we do have some idea of what healthy means in the report's context, since 1,899 of the sample (the other 93%) are able to live without assistance in daily activities.

    Anecdote department: the guy at 0:05, 0:13 etc in this video (Danny Burstein) just got off a ventilator. He is, or was, in great shape and yeah, he's straight.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd7r8sMv70E

    90% of the people in NYC dying of corona are 65 or older. And since everyone that age has something wrong with them, I'm sure they all have a "co-morbidity" or two. But a lot of healthy people are getting very, very sick. Deal with it, stop lying to yourself about it.

    It's funny, Steve mentions the anecdote about people finding out he had cancer, and being cast down when they were told he didn't smoke. It gets borne out in every single one of these threads.

  151. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    'Bill Gates estimates US deaths will be “well short” of Trump’s 100k statement'

    There goes President Literally Hitler lying to us again.

    There goes President Literally Hitler lying to us again.

    No, it’s President LH not having a clue.

  152. @Hibernian
    Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.

    Merkel is Chamberlain & Putin is Franco.
    Trump is Hitler (loser) and Xi Ping Pong is Roosevelt.
    Boris is…in hospital.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Trump is Hitler (loser) and Xi Ping Pong is Roosevelt.
     
    Trump is De Gaulle.


    https://worldportal.news/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2b5796696ef052ded3a53e0a1a0e421a.png


    In 2016, as in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944, upstaters were right and downstaters wrong. Except at the very top.

  153. @res
    Ron Unz and I are discussing that right now. I think the the infection-death period is closer to 14 days which would make the NY drop now align with the shutdown. It would also make the Louisiana dramatic change in growth rate for deaths (36% per day to 18%) better align with their state of emergency (a 17 day lag).

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/americas-coronavirus-peak/#comment-3818339

    How can we get a better fix on timing? Known infections, maybe? You need to know the exact day when someone got infected, and also died.

    The Kirkland nursing home gives a good idea:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-09/how-coronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

    Patient 0 in Seattle was January 19th. The first death in the home was Feb 19, 31 days later. So infection to death cannot be more than 31 days.

    • Replies: @res
    I think the 5.1 day median incubation period estimate is reasonably solid. Perhaps decrease a bit for deaths because they might be more vulnerable and show symptoms sooner.

    Given the incubation period, it is just a matter of collecting data for time of symptoms to death. Which should be relatively easy if you ask people about symptom onset when they are admitted.

    But I think the approach I am proposing of looking at lockdowns and changes in the death rate is even better because it directly gives you an estimate of the relevant time (how long it takes transmission countermeasures to have an effect).

    As I said in the other thread, my current estimate based on that approach is 16-17 days from infection to death based on the New York and UK lockdowns along with the Louisiana emergency order. I also gave a theoretical estimate of 14.1 days based on study estimates of incubation period and infection-death time. The latter is about 9 days according to an Italian study.
    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/americas-coronavirus-peak/#comment-3819155

    Ron is sticking to his three week estimate, so I guess we will just have to see who turns out to be closer.
    , @Sean
    Most of the population of Bergamo were celebrating their team win a Champions league match on 19 February by drinking and platonically slobbering all over one another into the early hours. That may have showed in the national statistics The COVID-19 deaths in Italy sort of spiked on March 21. Infection to death takes a month.
  154. @TomSchmidt
    Actually, my walking about freely CANNOT put your life at risk, secure in your locked down bunker. If you choose to go out, you take the consequences. Isn't that how mature adults treat each other?

    By contrast, someone who is feverish or symptomatic who goes out is a like a drunk driver, even if he infects no one, and should suffer penalties.

    By the way, do you agree that moms who send sick kids to school should suffer the same sort of social opprobrium? Drunk drivers go to jail. It'd be nice if we could learn from COVID to at least scorn people who knowingly put others at risk

    EXACTLY RIGHT.

    Sick people who go to work should be beaten if they could have used a Sick Day. If their job did not afford them one then their boss should be beaten.

    Healthy people however have every eamn right to walk around outdoors and it is VERY LITERALLY CRIMINAL TO THE LAWS OF GOD AND MAN for the government to stop it inder threat of being placed in a cage where one is nearly guaranteed to become sick.

    SHAME ON ALMOST EVERYONE FOR SUPPORTING THE GOVERNMENT’S RIGHT TO RESTRICT THE MOVEMENT OF IT’S CITY’S CITIZENS WITHIN THEIR OWN CITIES.

    I don’t mind voluntary isolations. I mind POLICE ENFORCED isolations.

    And I mind MORE , all of the penisless masses who support, encourage and beg for more such police enforcements.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    One commentator whose tagline is "the situation is hopeless, but it's not serious" once pondered: where did the Nazis find all the people who volunteered to become camp guards.

    "And I mind MORE , all of the penisless masses who support, encourage and beg for more such police enforcements."

    Well, you see now.
  155. @Hibernian
    Once about 7 years ago when i was in the hospital for soething serious I had, one morning, somewhere between 5 and 10 medical students gathered around me, led by their professor. he asked me a few questions and I answered. How much could they have learned? was it worth the aggravation? (My aggravation)

    Perhaps the real learning experience is often best done at a diplomatic remove from the patient? It’s likely to be difficult to be able to question the students frankly in the presence of the subject:

    “So, did any of you form a view about Mr X’s statement that he has never used tobacco/alcohol/heroin and cannot fathom why he should be affected by COPD/liver failure/AIDS?”

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    You're right. (I've reached my "Agree" quota.)
  156. @Anonymous
    Strangely, Italy is a land of mass unemployment.

    So the ruling class screwed us out of our standard of living, and now they’re screwing us out of living.

  157. @Anonymous
    Tom -
    I know. Since I've been shutdown and locked up in my house, I've had more time to pay attention to the assertions made by columnists and commentators here. I catch a lot of that kind of stuff - claims that have absolutely no basis in fact or are extreme exaggerations of the truth. My 80 year old father received a knee replacement operation last summer after a one year wait. The orthopedic surgeon had refused to do it earlier because my father, who was otherwise in great shape, had a small a rotator cuff tear in his shoulder. The ability of a patient to get on their feet using a walker and support their own weight and use the joint is essential to post-operative outcomes. A shoulder issue would have just made this very difficult - not impossible, and the doctor still demurred.

    Up till now I considered myself sympathetic to the whole HBD thing. I' m beginning to question their whole "We have all the answers to the world's most vexing problems. Everything is encoded and predetermined in genes (IQ, disease outcomes, success in life), however, we are being silenced and persecuted by powerful forces enforcing political correctness who exclude us from mainstream discussions".

    This Covid-19 thing came along and their "movement", which claimed to understand the Rosetta Stone on human outcomes, sounded zero alarms about what is possibly the largest public health crisis of our lifetime. Maybe the MSM is justified in being so skeptical about their major assertions.

    I don’t think they really believe in HBD, frankly. A true HBd person engages in that behavior of discriminating, or use Steve’s term, noticing. It’s not PCto notice differences in races with respect to IQ, although Steve has pointed out that maybe the problem is we’ve essentially made life for lower-IQ people untenable, and we ought to have places for them.

    A discriminating person would not recommend a lockdown, as if everyone were equal. A discriminating person would have locked down the elderly in February. We did not discriminate in any sense of the term.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Yes - and I am beginning to believe that a discriminating person (Unz more than Sailer)would not have spent the last several years promulgating a narrative that our country was committing a great sin by limiting the percentage of slots in elite universities for the children of foreign born elites. This displacement was supposed to make us a stronger, more productive nation. It has not - in fact it is becoming obvious over the last few weeks that the presence of this foreign body poses a true existential threat to our Nation. This threat, however, wasn't a priority for many here - instead we were served a column a day mocking the latest musings of some banal, 20ish black New York Times online columnist fretting about the texture of their hair.

    To understand my point. Consider this article in the Atlantic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/04/chinese-americans-pandemic-flashback/609400/

    Over 400,000 Chinese nationals traveled from their Covid19 ravaged homeland to the US in February. Not a single column anywhere about what this presence could mean to the public health of Americans. Think about that. This foreign born elite did not warn the larger community about the virus threat that was coming. Neither did our HBD pied pipers.

    Absolutely incomprehensible.
  158. @Charon
    I'll get you up to date then. Several years ago, people began every sentence with the word "So". That got old so now they start every sentence with "Okay so..."

    Happy to be of service.

    P.S. What might be next?

    “Well now”

  159. @moshe
    EXACTLY RIGHT.

    Sick people who go to work should be beaten if they could have used a Sick Day. If their job did not afford them one then their boss should be beaten.

    Healthy people however have every eamn right to walk around outdoors and it is VERY LITERALLY CRIMINAL TO THE LAWS OF GOD AND MAN for the government to stop it inder threat of being placed in a cage where one is nearly guaranteed to become sick.

    SHAME ON ALMOST EVERYONE FOR SUPPORTING THE GOVERNMENT'S RIGHT TO RESTRICT THE MOVEMENT OF IT'S CITY'S CITIZENS WITHIN THEIR OWN CITIES.

    I don't mind voluntary isolations. I mind POLICE ENFORCED isolations.

    And I mind MORE , all of the penisless masses who support, encourage and beg for more such police enforcements.

    One commentator whose tagline is “the situation is hopeless, but it’s not serious” once pondered: where did the Nazis find all the people who volunteered to become camp guards.

    “And I mind MORE , all of the penisless masses who support, encourage and beg for more such police enforcements.”

    Well, you see now.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    ...where did the Nazis find all the people who volunteered to become camp guards.
     
    Better that than the alternative, the Eastern Front. In Ira Gershwin's words,



    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A58ecFDFPvQ
    , @Wielgus
    At least from summer 1941 onwards, finding a job that did not involve fighting anybody armed, and especially not the Red Army Of The Workers And Peasants, was one major motivation for being a camp guard.
  160. @UK
    All respiratory doctors know, a lot of people are especially scared of symptoms that mirror panic attacks.

    Personally, when I am extremely stressed I am more likely to hold my breath on purpose and not breath. I almost find it comforting, so the symptoms of Chinavirus don't put special fear into me.

    Those who have nightmares of drowning etc. will be particularly prone to panic over this stuff.

    I went to the ER during allergy season with breathing trouble, not a panic attack. I know the difference because I’ve been diagnosed with both*.

    My trip to the ER was the result of a plug of mucous so thick it partially blocked my airway. I waa finally able to dislodge it by coughing. That’s what scares me–producing mucous so thick that it impairs my breathing and can’t be readily dislodged. I’d rather have a panic attack any day.

    *Panic attacks can be controlled with a breathing technique that’s simple and effective. And they can be overcome by confronting whatever trauma has caused you to feel you’ve lost control of your life. In my case, it was years of life-threatening domestic violence. It’s been thirty years since I had one.

  161. @Jack D
    This really tells you very little because in order to be placed in an ICU you have to be very sick to begin with. The people who get put in there of all ages are roughly equally sick when they go in (but the younger ones still have somewhat better outcomes).

    But maybe (made up numbers) 1 in 5 of 80 year olds with Wuhan Virus are going into the ICU and 1 in 30 20 year olds. The mean age of the UK population is 40, the mean age of this population is 60 so clearly it skews much older.

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts - the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years, the middle cohort is 50-69 which is 19 years but the latter cohort has more than twice as many people in it. On a % of population basis, it's probably 4x. To really clearly present the data there should have been equal # of year age groups = 0-19,20-39, etc.

    But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts – the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years…

    Yes, 16-49 is a meaningless age-category. On average, a 49 year old is not at all like a 16 year-old, or even a 30 year-old. The categories should be broken out by decades as you said.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    On average, a 49 year old is not at all like a 16 year-old
     
    But if a 16-year-old knocks up a 49-year-old, he's on the hook for child support. Unless she aborts, a decision in which he has no say.

    What's the record age gap for a pregnant couple in which the male partner is younger?
  162. OT: What about tigers? A tiger at The Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the Virus.

    So it’s jumped species, and presumably has found other animal hosts. The WuFlu will be with us for a long while.

    • Replies: @HA
    "So it’s jumped species, and presumably has found other animal hosts.

    Yes, it's clearly jumped species several times already, which is how it got into humans. If I understand the general thinking, this thing already jumped from horseshoe bats to pangolin (and maybe some civets along the way). In any case:

    Coronavirus can infect cats — dogs, not so much

  163. Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr’s law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 — just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly. Spain is just a few days to a week behind Italy.

    New York and New Jersey (two states with high % of Italian-Americans) confirmed case count likely peaked in the first few days of April. Deaths lag in these two states, but should peak in 7-20 days. Total deaths in NY and NJ combined not likely to exceed 35,000. Other states not nearly as bad as NJ and NY. Warmer weather and longer days likely to reduce case and death count further. Total death count in US not likely to exceed 100,000 — less than 0.03% of total population.

    Wondering if Italians are more genetically disposed to suffer from this particular virus.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week. A case could be made for continuing to restrict very large spectator sporting events and large concerts for a few months.

    For what it’s worth, Italy, Spain, NY, NJ and Michigan are of similar latitudes.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.
     
    Next week meaning when?
    , @Ron Unz

    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr’s law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 — just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly.
     
    Unfortunately, I really don't think those Italian totals are correct. The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don't bother testing corpses for the virus, and very large numbers of the victims are apparently dying at home, untested and unhospitalized. So the true body-count may be five times larger:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    The WSJ had a big article saying the same thing a couple of days ago. Incidentally, that huge discrepancy may completely throw off the reliability of Italian data on all sorts of other factors, including the age and health of the victims.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.
     
    Well, it's nice to see that the totally insane are properly represented on these comment-threads.
  164. @The Alarmist

    Then maybe the just-in-time supply chain is part of the problem. What did we do before that?
     
    We paid more for crap actually made in the USA.

    In Australia here, the locally made crap wasn’t bad quality and the better stuff was reasonably priced.
    Now it’s all crap.
    Yeah, it’s cheap crap but how many pairs of non repairable shoes does anyone need?

  165. @Another Old Fart
    A reality check for Steve--

    Video: https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg

    Transcript: https://freebirth.ca/blogs/freebirth/perspectives-on-the-pandemic-with-professor-knut-wittkowski

    The entire strategy that has been employed so far is ass-backwards from a public health standpoint.

    More like unreality check.

  166. @Bardon Kaldian
    All Cowisdom can be summed up in 3-4 points:

    1. this infection is highly atypical, unlike any other influenza

    2. low mortality & low recovery rate. Combined, they're 5-10% of all cases. More than 90% are still ill. This all takes too long.

    3. symptoms vary so much that it questionable that we can speak of symptoms in any meaningful sense of the word

    4. basically, experts- real experts- don't know.

    There was a doctor talking on social media earlier that I saw, who said that the treatment approach for COVID-19 was wrong.

    I’m paraphrasing, but he said that traditionally Vents were for people who’s lung muscles were too weak/tired. COVID patients muscles are fine, its their ability to capture oxygen that seems to be compromised.

    Thats why so many patients describe feelings of drowning.

    Its an evil bastard. that’s for sure.

  167. @Bardon Kaldian
    UK, US, Sweden..."strategy" gloriously- failed.

    “UK, US, Sweden…”strategy” gloriously- failed.”

    You don’t know what the goal was, do you?

  168. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    And now a Russian government-funded agency reports that Boris has been hospitalized “out of precaution” (probably true) and will be put on a ventilator (probably not true).
    https://ria.ru/20200406/1569611571.html?rcmd_alg=svd&rcmd_id=1569611410

    In any case, the consistent reports from more than one sources is that he was unable to shake off fever and cough for well over a week. and his pregnant bride is infected too. “It’s just a flu”.

    • Replies: @Sean
    Johnson's ten days fever equals a real risk of developing pneumonia. He apparently had not been seen by a doctor since he was diagnosed, which sounds especially foolhardy considering his responsibilities.
  169. @ic1000
    A little off-topic: How do people get infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus?

    Documented transmission by fomite (e.g. doorknobs), droplets (6' distancing), and aerosols (out to 20'). So what are the relative importances/frequencies of these modes?

    Here's the 4-hour intercity bus ride that symptomatic "Patient A" took. The person sitting next to him: not infected.
    https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2020/03/11/2367f83c-61fc-11ea-8e9f-2d196083a37c_972x_161511.jpg

    A related question is whether how you get infected affects the course of your illness. Siddhartha Mukherjee in the 3/26/20 New Yorker points to studies suggesting that a high initial viral load (e.g. getting sneezed on by somebody shedding lots of virus) likely leads or more severe disease. In the April 1 NYT (not paywalled), two Princeton academics make the same point.

    So what are the low-hanging fruit, in terms of behaviors? ICU doc David Price emphasizes hand-washing and Purell at the 13:50 mark of this 3/22/20 video. Are gloves necessary? Decontaminating mail?

    It'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the relative risks.

    Heh, right before the time mark you give the guy says:

    “The general public has zero need for n95 masks.”
    So was still pushing hard the old party line. (which was still current as of the time he was saying it).

    This, of course makes no sense in light of that bus study you mention (which also came up in comments a few weeks ago as indication that there’s strong evidence of aeresol spread ).

    The evolving view that transmission and possibly severity is dose dependent (your other links) also suggests masks would help since they cut down on the number of particles you intake (if you happen to be somewhere where there are such).

    The low hanging fruit, imo, are avoiding indoor crowds, ventilation, masks and hand sanitizing. Also stay away from sewers or water treatment plants or anywhere else that you can smell sewage.

    One of Steve’s posts just a few days back was news that sone Germans are tracking the transmission problem with gusto, but it’ll probably be months until they publish any results.

    • Replies: @utu

    Germans are tracking the transmission problem... but it’ll probably be months until they publish any results.
     
    Prof. Hendrik Streeck

    https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-german-scientists-hope-to-find-answers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot

    "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven,"

    "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html

    ‘We know it’s not a smear infection that is transmitted by touching objects, but that close dancing and exuberant celebrations have led to infections.’

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/these-are-answers-we-need-who-plans-global-study-discover-true-extent-coronavirus

    Virologist Hendrik Streeck of Bonn’s University Hospital says he and his colleagues used WHO’s protocols to help shape their study. He says initial results could be announced as early as next week.
    , @Polynikes
    The viral load theory would help explain why masks, even rudimentary ones, seem to work when used en mass. They at the very least cut down on the viral load if not protect you 100%. It also explains why some young health care doctors have dropped dead.
  170. @TomSchmidt
    "That’s for the medical professionals to decide. You seemingly would be willing to pull the plug just to save money."

    Suppose by pulling the plug you could save enough dollars to provide medical care to save five infants from premature death, given our scandalously high infant mortality rate. Would you do it?

    “Suppose by pulling the plug you could save enough dollars to provide medical care to save five infants from premature death, given our scandalously high infant mortality rate. Would you do it?”

    It’s very easy to make up these moral dilemma scenarios. How old is the person I am pulling the plug on? Is it a relative or a dear friend? What is their condition? What is their prognosis? And, of course, what is the emotional toll and aftermath of it all?

    But, to answer your question, I would consult with the person and their family, told them about the situation, and then make that decision. Perhaps you find it easier to play God.

    Pray tell, what is the race of the person that I am “pulling the plug on” and the race of the kids? See, to some of the fine posters here, this information is relevant to them and would unfortunately guide their decision. Hopefully, you are not in that camp.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    Reverend Corvinus strikes again.
    , @TomSchmidt
    I don't find it easier to play God, but philosophy professor with trolley problems sure. The complication in this case is that the people spending the money aren't necessarily the people paying the money, so the family has less skin in the game. Where it's private money being spent, I have to agree with your approach. I recall one psych experiment where the professor challenged students to ask people for their seats on the subway, and how hard most students found it to do, so ingrained is the "first come, first served" heuristic.

    The posited scenario is that the person's chance of survival is near 0, with no age given by the original commenter. Also, in the trolley problem version, there's no shortage of ventilators, only money to spend in healthcare. I mentioned infants because each represents about 80 years of human life, as you know, while the average ventilated person does not.

    I'd actually prefer to see a change to care to let people know the cost in dollars (trolley) or lives (scarce ventilators) to keep people alive with low prospects. My understanding is a lot of people on ventilators need to be sedated because they find it tortuous. That might help some family members to come to grips with the suffering that excessive measure cause.

    BTW, the artificial trolley problem has its counterpart in the ticking time bomb problem of terrorism and torture. Never cared for that one.

  171. Anonymous[921] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Tom -
    I know. Since I've been shutdown and locked up in my house, I've had more time to pay attention to the assertions made by columnists and commentators here. I catch a lot of that kind of stuff - claims that have absolutely no basis in fact or are extreme exaggerations of the truth. My 80 year old father received a knee replacement operation last summer after a one year wait. The orthopedic surgeon had refused to do it earlier because my father, who was otherwise in great shape, had a small a rotator cuff tear in his shoulder. The ability of a patient to get on their feet using a walker and support their own weight and use the joint is essential to post-operative outcomes. A shoulder issue would have just made this very difficult - not impossible, and the doctor still demurred.

    Up till now I considered myself sympathetic to the whole HBD thing. I' m beginning to question their whole "We have all the answers to the world's most vexing problems. Everything is encoded and predetermined in genes (IQ, disease outcomes, success in life), however, we are being silenced and persecuted by powerful forces enforcing political correctness who exclude us from mainstream discussions".

    This Covid-19 thing came along and their "movement", which claimed to understand the Rosetta Stone on human outcomes, sounded zero alarms about what is possibly the largest public health crisis of our lifetime. Maybe the MSM is justified in being so skeptical about their major assertions.

    As Thomas Aquinas is supposed to have said, “Beware of the man of one book.” HBD attracts a crowd who see it as justification for whatever fringe political ideology, and perceive everything through the lens of that ideology even when it is completely inappropriate to do so.

    To his credit, Mr. Sailer is not this way. He never claimed to have the Rosetta Stone and conspicuously avoids expressing strong opinions on any field he isn’t very well-versed in. Perhaps related, he may not have been the earliest to “sound the alarm” but his corona coverage has consistently solid the last few weeks.

    • Agree: utu
  172. @anonymous
    Gloves are a false security blanket. You touch something with the virus and it's now on your gloves. You'd have to change your gloves frequently to be safe depending on what you're doing. Think how easy it would be to spread the virus with gloves from touching an unclean shopping cart handle or infected products, pull out your CC to pay, and then touch your car door handle and steering wheel. You've now potentially infected your wallet, CC and car. It's much better and easier to use hand sanitizer as needed. When you bring your stuff home, you can either disinfect the items or quarantine them for up to 3 days when the virus has degraded enough to be safe.

    where can I buy hand sanitizer ? None was available at any local stores for the last 3 weeks here in New Jersey nor is it available via Amazon.

  173. ‘… Whites were slightly underrepresented, South Asians about average, and blacks somewhat overrepresented among those in the ICU…’

    Every cloud has a silver lining — though, I’ll hasten to add, I’ve nothing in particular against South Asians.

  174. … since they are blameless, that means they will never die.

    Johnson was far overweight until the other year.

    Never get fat, it can come back off, but the damage is lasting. The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill. He lacks self control.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Boris Johnson is not a marathoner, but he did win a historic General Election less than 4 months ago. He is in his prime.
    , @keypusher
    The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill. He lacks self control.

    Know how I know you don't know anything about Winston Churchill?
    , @PiltdownMan

    The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill.
     
    There's been only one Billy Bunter in British politics, and he is both Billy Bunter and Churchill.

    Winston Churchill's grandson, Nicholas (Bunter) Soames.

    https://i.imgur.com/s8qWUxa.jpg

    https://images.arcadja.com/chapman_c_h_-two_billy_bunter_drawings~OM235300~10000_20101216_L10408_190.jpg

  175. @Cortes
    Perhaps the real learning experience is often best done at a diplomatic remove from the patient? It’s likely to be difficult to be able to question the students frankly in the presence of the subject:

    “So, did any of you form a view about Mr X’s statement that he has never used tobacco/alcohol/heroin and cannot fathom why he should be affected by COPD/liver failure/AIDS?”

    You’re right. (I’ve reached my “Agree” quota.)

  176. @Hibernian
    Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.

    “Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.”

    Don’t be obtuse. It’s our government’s RESPONSE that matters to this global pandemic to our citizens. The logic is quite simple–Fewer personal interactions under lockdown means a slower rate of community transmission and infections, keeping the direct acute care rate “manageable”. But the problem is that Trump is getting in the way of having a coherent strategy by which the states and localities are part of the solution and not deemed as “competitors”.

    Do you really want Jared Kushner, a Jew, running the Covid-19 response team? I mean, I keep hearing time and time again from a myriad of posters here that Jews ought NOT to be trusted in positions of authority, right?

    • Replies: @SFG
    Plenty of Jews I'd trust running this. Jared is not one of them.
  177. @Corvinus
    "Suppose by pulling the plug you could save enough dollars to provide medical care to save five infants from premature death, given our scandalously high infant mortality rate. Would you do it?"

    It's very easy to make up these moral dilemma scenarios. How old is the person I am pulling the plug on? Is it a relative or a dear friend? What is their condition? What is their prognosis? And, of course, what is the emotional toll and aftermath of it all?

    But, to answer your question, I would consult with the person and their family, told them about the situation, and then make that decision. Perhaps you find it easier to play God.

    Pray tell, what is the race of the person that I am "pulling the plug on" and the race of the kids? See, to some of the fine posters here, this information is relevant to them and would unfortunately guide their decision. Hopefully, you are not in that camp.

    Reverend Corvinus strikes again.

    • Agree: Colin Wright
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    Someone has to carry the moral weight around here. Why do you apparently slack off in this regard?
  178. @Anonymous
    This is the way to go.

    https://s3.amazonaws.com/digitaltrends-uploads-prod/2014/08/Star-Wars-stormtroopers.jpg
  179. @vhrm
    Heh, right before the time mark you give the guy says:

    "The general public has zero need for n95 masks."
    So was still pushing hard the old party line. (which was still current as of the time he was saying it).

    This, of course makes no sense in light of that bus study you mention (which also came up in comments a few weeks ago as indication that there's strong evidence of aeresol spread ).

    The evolving view that transmission and possibly severity is dose dependent (your other links) also suggests masks would help since they cut down on the number of particles you intake (if you happen to be somewhere where there are such).

    The low hanging fruit, imo, are avoiding indoor crowds, ventilation, masks and hand sanitizing. Also stay away from sewers or water treatment plants or anywhere else that you can smell sewage.

    One of Steve's posts just a few days back was news that sone Germans are tracking the transmission problem with gusto, but it'll probably be months until they publish any results.

    Germans are tracking the transmission problem… but it’ll probably be months until they publish any results.

    Prof. Hendrik Streeck

    https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-german-scientists-hope-to-find-answers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot

    “So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven,”

    “We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html

    ‘We know it’s not a smear infection that is transmitted by touching objects, but that close dancing and exuberant celebrations have led to infections.’

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/these-are-answers-we-need-who-plans-global-study-discover-true-extent-coronavirus

    Virologist Hendrik Streeck of Bonn’s University Hospital says he and his colleagues used WHO’s protocols to help shape their study. He says initial results could be announced as early as next week.

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @vhrm
    The "next week" is for the results of the antibody survey, which I'm definitely looking forward to.

    But didn't see projected dates for the current transmission investigation. The house of infected people where they found no bootable virus on surfaces is def interesting; I'd forgotten about it.

  180. @Paleo Liberal
    They are very short on testing now. Talk to any health care worker. They will tell you.

    Your anecdotes are worth little. All evidence points to deaths being inflated.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    So deaths are inflated by all evidence?

    They explains the Washington Post article about deaths being underreported. Uh. Wait.

    Where is this “all evidence “ that deaths are being inflated?

    We know people are dying without being tested. That is a fact.

    We know there are a number of false negatives. That is a fact. When a false negative dies, that is not reported as a Coronavirus death.

    We know the death rates in places like Italy have grown more than the reported deaths by Coronavirus. That is a fact.

    And therefore the deaths are being inflated?

    Please explain the “evidence “.
  181. @AnotherDad

    “Imagine a number of men in chains, all under sentence of death, some of whom are each day butchered in the sight of others. Those remaining see their own condition in that of their fellows, and looking at each other with grief and despair await their turn. This is an image of the human condition.”
     

    Blah, blah, blah. Pascal's a downer.

    Life is beautiful. A precious gift from God. Chocolate chip cookies. Learning and figuring stuff out. Your first good kiss. Popping some corn to hang out with your mom. Throwing a perfect spiral, right to your guy's fingertips. Your first real paycheck. Beating a bigger man off the dribble. The accomplishment of honest labor. Heart pounding, a bit winded ... taking in a mountain vista. A the smile of a pretty young woman ... or the feel of her curves in your arms. Holding your child in your arms. Reading stories to your kids, then having them read the stories to you. The noisy serene quiet of the deep forest. Your kids sleeping in the minivan rolling down the highway toward some national park. Your kids graduating high school, graduating college, finding a husband or wife, and ... taking your place. Surfer girls in bikinis on your retirement beach. A beautiful sunset. Christmas morning with your grandkids. Reading stories to them and telling them about your life and their world.

    Life:
    -- Case fatality rate: 100%
    -- Best damn thing imaginable.

    Life:
    — Case fatality rate: 100%
    — Best damn thing imaginable.

    You forgot to add : L’chaim!

  182. @Paleo Liberal
    They are very short on testing now. Talk to any health care worker. They will tell you.

    Under the CDC Guidelines they need NO test to decree any death as CV– seems to encourage placing any death possible on to the CV heap if you read it — this seems to be the standard all over– the Italian numbers were said in reality to be about 12% of what is stated– the intentional overstatement of numbers to create hysteria and panic is criminal but it has been and is happening– wonder why?

    WHO did it out of the gate with its incredibly inflated death “projection” as did the London “Expert” who claimed millions to die (by his “Model”) and then walked it back to under 20,000 after it was clear he would be called out– his numbers were used to crash the World Economy and Trump used them also in deciding to do the same to the USA–basically fraud — I read it is this same “Expert”/Clown/Fraud who gave us “Social Distancing” and that there is ZERO Scientific evidence it has any validity as to this Cold Virus — some anecdotal events were cited but nothing that should have caused it to be implemented on this massive scale–likewise there is serious evidence that Mass Quarantining might well SPREAD this Virus more than stop it — the WHO Head with his phony projections? “ex” violent Ethiopian Marxist Revolutionary put in by the ChiComs — what is someone like that doing there?

    Likewise the Gates Foundation “Model” is being used — highly inflated and inaccurate “adjusted daily” LOL — and Gates (Mr. “depopulation”) has been pimping a pandemic like this to implement Mass Vaccinations/”chipping” and the NWO Agenda for years now–somehow he’s an “Expert” too like the London “Expert”/Fraud– the “event” is clearly being used as a “reset” of the World economy and the Banksters are using it to cover years of fraud etc. — the hyping of deaths, not done as to Flu or any other morbidity previously, is a propaganda method to cause mass hysteria and compliance with the “Medical Martial Law” agenda they are now calling “the New Normal”– no way any of this just “happened” — another 911 by different means only more drastic– the “terrorists” are now microscopic, invisible, everywhere, and never going away….

  183. “COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death,” CDC guidelines issued March 24 read. “Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc.,” the guidance continued.

    “If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.”

  184. @Bardon Kaldian
    Meanwhile, in Zimbabwe....

    https://i.postimg.cc/7hnmynp8/IMG-c0e216f593b874ef94645f6225464c9e-V.jpg

    • Replies: @Lagertha
    hahahahahaahaaa! Reg, good one! Humor is essential during tough times!
  185. @Visionary
    Steve, the comorbidities they list are super extreme that it's almost impossible to determine what "healthy" means in this report's context. Here are the "very severe comorbidities" that they listed:

    • Cardiovascular: symptoms at rest
    • Respiratory: shortness of breath with light activity or home ventilation
    • Renal: RRT for end-stage renal disease
    • Liver: biopsy-proven cirrhosis, portal hypertension or hepatic encephalopathy;
    • Metastatic disease: distant metastases
    • Haematological malignancy: acute or chronic leukaemia, multiple myeloma or lymphoma
    • Immunocompromise: chemotherapy, radiotherapy or daily high dose steroid treatment in previous 6 months, HIV/AIDS or congenital immune deficiency

    These are absurdly "severe" situations -- as an example, having "cardiovascular symptoms at rest" is a code word for "unstable angina", which often means you literally need to be catheterized. Liver literally says "biopsy-proven cirrhosis" - so if you drink 15 drinks a day with elevated liver function tests, but never had a biopsy done, you're not counted as "having a comorbidity". And if you had all of those but 7 months ago, and now you're better (say, for things that are solvable like "cardiovascular symptoms at rest"), you're not counted as "having a comorbidity".

    Things that are NOT included: mild COPD, asthma, a history of multiple heart attacks that required stenting or cardiac bypass, severe diabetes (even that which lead to ketoacidosis or diabetic coma), stage 3 cancer (with local metastases), history of stroke (heck, a person who is literally stroking out doesn't appear to qualify as having a "severe comorbidity" here), history of brain/breast/other organ cancer with surgical excision 6.01 months ago, etc etc. These people would qualify as "healthy" in this report.

    I don't mean to cast shade on the physicians/medical professionals who created the data -- they're trying to put out this data as quickly as possible and went with the most confirmed severe diagnoses they had while trying to save people's lives in this crisis. But there's a huge caveat to "those that are healthy and those that are not" in this data set.

    Take it with a major heaping of salt. As an aside, the data will get more granular as we get more of it.

    -Visionary (physician in NYC)

    Steve, the comorbidities they list are super extreme that it’s almost impossible to determine what “healthy” means in this report’s context. Here are the “very severe comorbidities” that they listed:

    Who gives a damn, since that is only 7% of the sample? And we do have some idea of what healthy means in the report’s context, since 1,899 of the sample (the other 93%) are able to live without assistance in daily activities.

    Anecdote department: the guy at 0:05, 0:13 etc in this video (Danny Burstein) just got off a ventilator. He is, or was, in great shape and yeah, he’s straight.

    90% of the people in NYC dying of corona are 65 or older. And since everyone that age has something wrong with them, I’m sure they all have a “co-morbidity” or two. But a lot of healthy people are getting very, very sick. Deal with it, stop lying to yourself about it.

    It’s funny, Steve mentions the anecdote about people finding out he had cancer, and being cast down when they were told he didn’t smoke. It gets borne out in every single one of these threads.

    • Replies: @Skeptic54
    As of early April, 18% of NYC corona deaths were in patients under 60, 36% under 70.
  186. @James N. Kennett
    The Imperial College team led by Neil Ferguson anticipated the poor outcome of ICU treatment.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR).
     
    This raises an awkward issue. We were told that the purpose of the lockdown is to prevent ICU beds being overwhelmed by demand. Nobody bothered to mention that when a patient has reached the stage at which they need ICU treatment, it will give them only a 50% chance of survival. Better than 0% without ICU, for sure, but not a silver bullet against coronavirus.

    Perhaps my information is out of date but my understanding is that there’s a three stage classification of hospital in-patients: routine, Acute, then Intensive.

    I’ve been in an Acute unit in the NHS and was and remain very grateful for the care delivered. The experience makes me think that poor souls who have to be looked after in ICUs must indeed be hanging onto life by a gossamer thread and a positive outcome for them should be regarded as a bonus rather than a given.

  187. • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    A Chinese woman proudly filmed herself buying huge amount of facemasks from multiple US supermarkets

     

    "This Tweet is from a suspended account. Learn more" They censer quick.

    This is why price gouging in an emergency is a good thing. If the idiot running the store placed a steep premium on the coveted masks, it would to expensive for someone to walk in and fill up a shopping cart.

    If only a profiteer had gotten there first and bought the store's whole stock and flipped the masks from his truck in the parking lot, then people could still have access masks and they wouldn't be in China or a hoarder's basement.

    Price Gouging [ John Stossel]
    In Defense of “Price Gouging”
  188. @Bruno
    I fear for Boris Johnson. He is very important for the UK and Brexit

    I fear for Boris Johnson. He is very important for the UK and Brexit

    Social distancing should hurry it along, though, no matter who is in charge.

    Travel from the UK to France:
    Our passenger shuttle services continue to operate. Please check carefully before travelling to Folkestone, as you may be turned away by the French Authorities if you don’t have good reason to travel within France. They have advised us that they will only allow travel for the following reasons:

    Going home to a main residence
    Essential work in France
    Medical staff

    NO HOLIDAYS OR SOCIAL VISITS

    There are restrictions on all movements within France that mean people are only allowed to be on the roads if they have completed a certificate and have it with them. This page explains the circumstances under which people are allowed to travel within France.

    Travel from France to the UK:
    Our passenger shuttle services continue to operate but the shops and cafés in our terminal building in France have had to close due to new French regulations. There are no current restrictions by the authorities on travel from France to the UK, but the UK Government have advised that travel within the UK should only take place if it’s essential.

    https://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/travelling-with-us/latest/covid-19/

  189. @John Achterhof

    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.
     
    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.

    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.

    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.

    Right. Which means you are taking a group which might have an expected 90% death rate even with ventilators and making it 100% (assume). So 1/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) would be excess deaths due to lack of ventilator capacity. Whereas a naive analysis would use the death rate for the entire ventilator group (70%) and calculate 3/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) excess deaths.

    I think those are pretty decent guesses, and that means the excess deaths with triage might be 1/3 of what you would think from the naive analysis.

    And for those screaming about death panels (not so many here, but out in the world at large…), that is why you do triage.

    • Thanks: John Achterhof
    • Replies: @keypusher
    Supposedly that is SOP in the UK per this tweet:

    "Absolutely. People with a limited life expectancy are SCREENED OUT of ITU. ITUs are overloaded with people who are explicitly NOT GOING TO DIE SOON anyway. Half of ventilated COVID+ve people die. Half are under 60, but being over 60 doesn't mean you are about to die."

    https://twitter.com/CrystalliseL/status/1246869676925366285

    But does anyone know whether that is true?

    Stuart McDonald thread is worth reading, since he's discussing the report Steve is linking to.

    , @but an humble craftsman
    Oncw ICUs are swamped, the naive assumption is the correct assumption.
    , @Jack D
    90% is probably low. This morning on the local news they made a big deal about a middle aged guy who had just been discharged from the hospital after 17 days on the ventilator. The reason they made such a big deal is because he was the first one to do so. For people with certain profiles, getting off the ventilator is more like a miracle than a realistic prospect. I don't know this guy's exact profile but based on age I don't think he would have been rejected under a triage system in the first place - he was probably one of the better candidates.

    Triage doesn't have to be all or nothing. It should vary according to how bad the ventilator shortage is at the moment and some sort of scoring system. Maybe if your score (predicted likelihood of survival) is extremely low (85+ year old Alzheimer's patient who already has terminal cancer) then they don't put you on in the first place, which frees up a certain amount of capacity. Then for people with slightly higher scores, they give you a certain time on the ventilator (two weeks to start) and if thinks get worse you cut it back to 1 week and if things get even worse you raise the score a little. But for some people, this is not good enough - unless you can provide ventilators to 100% of the patients 100% of the time you're a Nazi who is killing for the Dow.

    I think that 3/10ths excess deaths is very high based on what a real world (and realistic - say 50%) ventilator shortage and triage system could accomplish. You would be taking a small group of people with a very short life expectancy to begin with and reducing their chances of survival from 2% to 0%.

    GM and Ford and lots of others are rushing to produce ventilators that will be ready for market in 2 or 3 months. I predict that these ventilators will be put in a warehouse and gather dust and most of them will never be used before they go out of date.

    Cuomo was also proposing (quite rationally) that we should ship ventilators from places that are not hotspots to those that are, both within NY State and nationally. This makes perfect sense because the epidemic isn't peaking at the same time in all cities. Even at this moment when it is sheer chaos in Brooklyn and Queens, things are peaceful upstate and even more peaceful in Wyoming and there are plenty of ventilators that are not being used. The problem is that most hospitals are not going to be willing to part with their ventilators because they are going to be afraid that they won't get them back in time (and in working condition) when they really need them.

    This would probably be true some % of the time but not 100% of the time. What is really needed is Federally provided "ventilator insurance" for hospitals backed by a pool of say 10% of the # of lent out ventilators. If your hospital doesn't get its loaned ventilators back immediately, the Fed gov would provide you with backup loaner ventilators within 48 hours until you do.

    It would have been good if we had something like this planned in advance (just like power companies lend their crews to each other after hurricanes) instead of having Cuomo begging on TV in the middle of the storm. The advantage of joining such a program is that your hospital in turn would be eligible for unlimited loaner ventilators in your moment of need.
    , @res
    I was thinking about this some more, and realized I left another factor out of the analysis. Under a triage system (done well, not if the criteria are "he's a senator" or "he gave a lot of money to the hospital") the survival rate of the ICU should increase because fewer of the highest risk patients are being admitted to it.

    I don't know a good way to derive numerical assumptions for this so I won't do a further analysis, but just note the effect. And also note that if we assume the ICU helps more than it harms (a reasonable statistical assumption IMHO, though there may be pathological individual cases, e.g. an iatrogenic acquired infection) then the overall survival rate will always be worse than the rate expected with no capacity limitation.
  190. @Anonymous
    Of course, the key component in a ventilator is the electric motor.

    I earnestly wonder if there is a single facility left in the UK which manufactures electric motors of the correct power level.

    No guesses from where they must be imported from ......

    I earnestly wonder if there is a single facility left in the UK which manufactures electric motors of the correct power level.

    I could manufacture an electric motor from stuff lying around in my garage.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    As could I, but it would not be very useful.

    I have worked in motor and transformer winding plants. They are set up for a narrow range of sizes and types and are capital intensive.

    The book on winding motors was literally written in 1920, by which time there were people with 30 to 40 years experience. There are motors dating back from the turn of the 20th century still in revenue service. I occasionally visit a 1912 building whose freight elevator has its original DC motor. It has new brushes and bearings but was never rewound. The mercury arc rectifier was replaced in the seventies and microprocessor control replaced the octal based relays in the 1990s. It runs smoother than a supermodel’s ass. It will probably outlast the building, which still has the mounts for the EMD standby generator in the basement floor from when it was a WWII telegraph nexus.
  191. @vhrm
    Heh, right before the time mark you give the guy says:

    "The general public has zero need for n95 masks."
    So was still pushing hard the old party line. (which was still current as of the time he was saying it).

    This, of course makes no sense in light of that bus study you mention (which also came up in comments a few weeks ago as indication that there's strong evidence of aeresol spread ).

    The evolving view that transmission and possibly severity is dose dependent (your other links) also suggests masks would help since they cut down on the number of particles you intake (if you happen to be somewhere where there are such).

    The low hanging fruit, imo, are avoiding indoor crowds, ventilation, masks and hand sanitizing. Also stay away from sewers or water treatment plants or anywhere else that you can smell sewage.

    One of Steve's posts just a few days back was news that sone Germans are tracking the transmission problem with gusto, but it'll probably be months until they publish any results.

    The viral load theory would help explain why masks, even rudimentary ones, seem to work when used en mass. They at the very least cut down on the viral load if not protect you 100%. It also explains why some young health care doctors have dropped dead.

  192. @anon
    This data argues AGAINST a lockdown. The only real benefit from a lockdown that I can see is that by flattening the curve, those that get infected and need hospitalization get to go to a functioning hospital system rather than an overwhelmed hospital system.

    Think more carefully. There are many people who use the hospital, including the ICU. A friend of my just had her third child and unfortunately there were some complications. The child is fine, the mother spent a night in ICU before being moved to a room. None of her family can visit because of quarantine, but at least there was enough hospital capacity to take care of her; her children still have a mother.

    Car accidents happen. Cardiac events happen. All sorts of things happen, and some number of people wind up in the ICU for a time. But if the local ICU is stuffed full of COVID-19 patients there's a problem for other people.

    Flattening the curve is good for the entire community, because ICU space is finite. This should be obvious.

    People who don’t have Covid-19 are afraid of going to the ED in my city for fear of being exposed. My younger son is dating a pediatric nurse practitioner who works in an ER. According to her, people are so afraid of being exposed that the ED has lost so much business that they’ve had to lay off employees.

    • Agree: Stan d Mute
    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
    Another anecdote: mother-in-law is in nursing facility and has an infection for which the prescribed treatment is intravenous antibiotics administered as an infusion in a hospital setting. Her care facility however says that if she goes outside for the treatment she must be quarantined for 21 days before she may return. So here’s an octogenarian who may succumb to sepsis because she has nowhere to go and be quarantined.

    One more: middle aged Down Syndrome man has pneumonia (SARS-CoV-2 negative) and leaves his care facility for hospitalization where the virus has several current patients. Downies have respiratory problems anyway and middle age is old age for them. Last year he spent a month in hospital for pneumonia so he’s got a good chance of picking up our novel virus this time around. Our fevered panic now, however, prevents the guy with an IQ of 30 from having any family visit. If this is his year, it’s a tough way to go - utterly alone and confused.

    Is anyone tallying Covid-19 panic caused deaths yet?
  193. How’s that herd immunity working? Right, it doesn’t work because covid-19 is totally different from influenza. Great planning, bureaucrats! Here’s hoping you won’t be immune although you act like sheep.

  194. res says:
    @TomSchmidt
    How can we get a better fix on timing? Known infections, maybe? You need to know the exact day when someone got infected, and also died.

    The Kirkland nursing home gives a good idea:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-09/how-coronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

    Patient 0 in Seattle was January 19th. The first death in the home was Feb 19, 31 days later. So infection to death cannot be more than 31 days.

    I think the 5.1 day median incubation period estimate is reasonably solid. Perhaps decrease a bit for deaths because they might be more vulnerable and show symptoms sooner.

    Given the incubation period, it is just a matter of collecting data for time of symptoms to death. Which should be relatively easy if you ask people about symptom onset when they are admitted.

    But I think the approach I am proposing of looking at lockdowns and changes in the death rate is even better because it directly gives you an estimate of the relevant time (how long it takes transmission countermeasures to have an effect).

    As I said in the other thread, my current estimate based on that approach is 16-17 days from infection to death based on the New York and UK lockdowns along with the Louisiana emergency order. I also gave a theoretical estimate of 14.1 days based on study estimates of incubation period and infection-death time. The latter is about 9 days according to an Italian study.
    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/americas-coronavirus-peak/#comment-3819155

    Ron is sticking to his three week estimate, so I guess we will just have to see who turns out to be closer.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    You seem to be looking only at the medians in the timings of these events.

    It's going to be important to understand and incorporate the full distribution to grasp how the curves are affected.

    Even a crude assumption of a normal distribution with some plausible standard deviation would make a considerable difference in the outcome curves.

    , @TomSchmidt
    Some worthwhile graphs comparing initiation of lockdown versus deaths are here:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/when-will-coronavirus-lockdowns-be-lifted-here-are-one-banks-estimates

    Hubei has that nice curve that screams fake data, but it does serve as a useful backdrop.
  195. @SFG
    If you get the actual numbers you can divide one day by the day before and estimate the doubling time and see if it goes up or down. With more than two days you can take the logarithm and fit a regression line. Of course, the fewer days you use the noisier your data.

    That tells you the approximate value of the exponent of the empirical curve, but it doesn’t give you a good sense of what’s going on underneath in terms of the changes in R0. Nor does it give you a sense of the confidence interval even in the exponent of the empirical curve.

    In the end, we need to have an idea of what R0 might be after the restrictions. It’s the only way we will be able to make reasonable inferences as to how far back we can pull the restrictions without another exponential explosion.

    To get an idea of the change in R0 it will be important to understand how the distribution of the time table of transition from infection to various events (hospitalization, ICU, death) works.

  196. Anonymous[284] • Disclaimer says:
    @TomSchmidt
    I don't think they really believe in HBD, frankly. A true HBd person engages in that behavior of discriminating, or use Steve's term, noticing. It's not PCto notice differences in races with respect to IQ, although Steve has pointed out that maybe the problem is we've essentially made life for lower-IQ people untenable, and we ought to have places for them.

    A discriminating person would not recommend a lockdown, as if everyone were equal. A discriminating person would have locked down the elderly in February. We did not discriminate in any sense of the term.

    Yes – and I am beginning to believe that a discriminating person (Unz more than Sailer)would not have spent the last several years promulgating a narrative that our country was committing a great sin by limiting the percentage of slots in elite universities for the children of foreign born elites. This displacement was supposed to make us a stronger, more productive nation. It has not – in fact it is becoming obvious over the last few weeks that the presence of this foreign body poses a true existential threat to our Nation. This threat, however, wasn’t a priority for many here – instead we were served a column a day mocking the latest musings of some banal, 20ish black New York Times online columnist fretting about the texture of their hair.

    To understand my point. Consider this article in the Atlantic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/04/chinese-americans-pandemic-flashback/609400/

    Over 400,000 Chinese nationals traveled from their Covid19 ravaged homeland to the US in February. Not a single column anywhere about what this presence could mean to the public health of Americans. Think about that. This foreign born elite did not warn the larger community about the virus threat that was coming. Neither did our HBD pied pipers.

    Absolutely incomprehensible.

  197. @res
    I think the 5.1 day median incubation period estimate is reasonably solid. Perhaps decrease a bit for deaths because they might be more vulnerable and show symptoms sooner.

    Given the incubation period, it is just a matter of collecting data for time of symptoms to death. Which should be relatively easy if you ask people about symptom onset when they are admitted.

    But I think the approach I am proposing of looking at lockdowns and changes in the death rate is even better because it directly gives you an estimate of the relevant time (how long it takes transmission countermeasures to have an effect).

    As I said in the other thread, my current estimate based on that approach is 16-17 days from infection to death based on the New York and UK lockdowns along with the Louisiana emergency order. I also gave a theoretical estimate of 14.1 days based on study estimates of incubation period and infection-death time. The latter is about 9 days according to an Italian study.
    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/americas-coronavirus-peak/#comment-3819155

    Ron is sticking to his three week estimate, so I guess we will just have to see who turns out to be closer.

    You seem to be looking only at the medians in the timings of these events.

    It’s going to be important to understand and incorporate the full distribution to grasp how the curves are affected.

    Even a crude assumption of a normal distribution with some plausible standard deviation would make a considerable difference in the outcome curves.

    • Replies: @res
    Worthwhile point, but what we really care about is where the primary mass of the distribution is. Which will be right around the sum of the two medians.

    That is also one of the reasons I prefer the methodology of looking at the lockdown to death rate changes timing. It gives a much more direct answer in the real world.
  198. @Rex Little

    Recent studies show that patients who have recovered from covid-19 end up with most of their vital organs severely damaged, not just the lungs. Kidneys, heart, even the brain.
     
    First I've heard of that. Got a link?
  199. Anonymous[971] • Disclaimer says:
    @unit472
    To paraphrase Forrest Gump "Hospital is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get"! I had a wicked looking rash on my left calf. My PCP sent me to a dermatologist to have a look only she wasn't there so her nurse practitioner examined me and said it was just hives and gave me some ointment to put on it. The rash went away after a few weeks but then my urine turned amber. I had some blood work done and was told to report to the ER by my doc. I did and gave them a urine sample. Then a newly hired nurse ( I overheard her being asked if she knew how to insert a catheter in a man's penis) came in and put the device down my penis. She damaged my bladder and it began to bleed. To stop the bleeding they put a two liter bag of saline hanging above my bed to flush my bladder. Problem was blood clots and that blocked my urinary canal. My bladder was being pressurized and I was in agony. A nurse tried to massage my genitals to work the clots out but it kept happening. I was screaming in pain and finally just ripped all the tubing out of me. That enraged the nurses but they did track down a urologist who took the nurses out of my room and told them they were lucky they hadn't killed me. I was then taken to surgery to have my bladder repaired. NONE of this had anything to do with my actual problem.

    The rash on my calf was an early indicator or wegener's granulomatosis, a rare autoimmune disease that, in my case went on to attack my kidneys leaving me with only 11% capacity and condemned to dialysis for the rest of my life which will be short indeed if I get Covid-19

    The rash on my calf was an early indicator or wegener’s granulomatosis,

    What did the rash look like?

  200. @theMann
    England's current population is given as 67,797,568 persons. If the figure of 2249 persons in ICU at the moment is for all of England, then the rate of infection for you to be sick enough to end up in ICU is .0000331723 %. Wow, the second coming of the Black Death. Not to mention that the death rate SHOULD be 0%, since we know how to cure this illness.

    Or alternately, you could try an ounce of prevention, eating something high in Vitamin C while sitting in front of a sun lamp. (or the actual Sun where I live, not an option yet everywhere.)

    But clearly, it makes much more sense for the entire world to collectively shit their pants while destroying their Economies over an illness of very low lethality, with a known set of cures, and a known methodology for prevention.


    Men take responsibility for their actions, and their health. So in all seriousness:

    Are we men, or are we Lab Rats?

    You have two too many 0’s in your answer, since you expressed it as a percentage. 2,249 is .oo331723% of 67,797,568.

  201. res says:
    @candid_observer
    You seem to be looking only at the medians in the timings of these events.

    It's going to be important to understand and incorporate the full distribution to grasp how the curves are affected.

    Even a crude assumption of a normal distribution with some plausible standard deviation would make a considerable difference in the outcome curves.

    Worthwhile point, but what we really care about is where the primary mass of the distribution is. Which will be right around the sum of the two medians.

    That is also one of the reasons I prefer the methodology of looking at the lockdown to death rate changes timing. It gives a much more direct answer in the real world.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    "That is also one of the reasons I prefer the methodology of looking at the lockdown to death rate changes timing. It gives a much more direct answer in the real world."

    But that also assumes that the lockdown caused the drop in deaths, which is what we are trying to establish.

    I don't know how many cases there are that trace from exact moment of infection to death (or recovery, which takes longer than death). There probably aren't enough to form a statistically valid sample upon, with a verification group. Would bootstrapping be a valid technique here? If we don't get a large enough sample, what would you advise another to accept as proof of the infection-to-death time?
  202. For the past two evenings we have had really beautiful views of Venus, in the south-east sky just above housetops, as the firmament is pleasantly blue without being black: it’s been the “first … see[n] at night,” and as the others arrive it forms the lower right corner of a wide rectangular box with Capella above it, across from Procyon in the upper left, with Sirius (very bright but noticeably less so than Venus) in the lower left, and with Orion between them. Oh and the internet tubes buzz about some comet or asteroid or something.

  203. Anonymous[971] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    Mr. Sailer, have you looked into Ivermectin?
    I know a few nerdy cattle ranchers, they started getting to know the substance while it was still looked down upon by veterinarians. One fellow in particular kept his dog alive for years with heart worm.

    At the moment it’s inexpensive, in clinical trials and (like the microwave) they don’t understand how it works on covid. Daily Mail ran an article a couple days ago.

    A couple of boxes in the cupboard could lower stress levels immensely. Life will deal to us all blows and wounds. But we were not made for pleasure. We are meant for greatness. Best wishes.

    A couple of boxes in the cupboard could lower stress levels immensely.

    Where can one obtain it?

  204. Very important news the reinforces my desire to social distance until the virus is gone or an effective vaccine is in me. It suggests that, like ‘flesh eating bacteria’ the Chinese Originated Viral Infectious Disease No. 19 is finding and destroying those copies of the human genome that are less potent against it than most (as well as older people). I don’t want to find out if I’m in that category thanks to the genetic lottery. Send this data to Lance Welton.

  205. Anonymous[266] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    I earnestly wonder if there is a single facility left in the UK which manufactures electric motors of the correct power level.
     
    I could manufacture an electric motor from stuff lying around in my garage.

    As could I, but it would not be very useful.

    I have worked in motor and transformer winding plants. They are set up for a narrow range of sizes and types and are capital intensive.

    The book on winding motors was literally written in 1920, by which time there were people with 30 to 40 years experience. There are motors dating back from the turn of the 20th century still in revenue service. I occasionally visit a 1912 building whose freight elevator has its original DC motor. It has new brushes and bearings but was never rewound. The mercury arc rectifier was replaced in the seventies and microprocessor control replaced the octal based relays in the 1990s. It runs smoother than a supermodel’s ass. It will probably outlast the building, which still has the mounts for the EMD standby generator in the basement floor from when it was a WWII telegraph nexus.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    "The mercury arc rectifier was replaced in the seventies"

    A neat anachronism of the early twentieth century.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7E4vNYuv4E
  206. @Bardon Kaldian
    Merkel is Chamberlain & Putin is Franco.
    Trump is Hitler (loser) and Xi Ping Pong is Roosevelt.
    Boris is...in hospital.

    Trump is Hitler (loser) and Xi Ping Pong is Roosevelt.

    Trump is De Gaulle.

    In 2016, as in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944, upstaters were right and downstaters wrong. Except at the very top.

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    Trump is De Gaulle.
     
    Or maybe Caesar. (But Julius or Augustus? It makes a big difference.)

    https://www.humortimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Trump-as-Caesar2.jpg
  207. @Jack D
    This really tells you very little because in order to be placed in an ICU you have to be very sick to begin with. The people who get put in there of all ages are roughly equally sick when they go in (but the younger ones still have somewhat better outcomes).

    But maybe (made up numbers) 1 in 5 of 80 year olds with Wuhan Virus are going into the ICU and 1 in 30 20 year olds. The mean age of the UK population is 40, the mean age of this population is 60 so clearly it skews much older.

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts - the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years, the middle cohort is 50-69 which is 19 years but the latter cohort has more than twice as many people in it. On a % of population basis, it's probably 4x. To really clearly present the data there should have been equal # of year age groups = 0-19,20-39, etc.

    But yes, should you be one of the few 20 year olds who gets this disease bad enough to go into the ICU, you and your family should worry.

    on the on 2,249 Intensive Care Unit patients with the new disease in England. . . Most are still in the ICU, but of the 690 who aren’t anymore, half got better and half died.

    This means that 345 people in England have died of CV to date after going to the ICU. But they are currently claiming a total of 4,934 British deaths.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-britain-united-kingdom-infection-deaths-symptoms-2020-3

    Can it be true that only 7% (645/4,934) of the people who actually died from CV required ICU treatment? How are the rest dying?

    Do they drop dead too fast for any intervention? Or, is the medical system failing to give them ICU treatment? Or, does the 4,934 number actually include a lot of people who really died of other stuff, and who therefore didn’t end up going through the full progression of respiratory symptoms that a terminal CV case would entail?

    Inquiring minds want to know.

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute

    How are the rest dying?
     
    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities, adult foster care homes.

    All, oddly enough, places where they drop like flies anyway.

    I’m dying to see the numbers for total mortality YTD versus previous years.
    , @Johann Ricke
    Excess deaths in Italy:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-01/coronavirus-italy-shows-we-may-be-underestimating-death-toll
  208. @Reg Cæsar

    Trump is Hitler (loser) and Xi Ping Pong is Roosevelt.
     
    Trump is De Gaulle.


    https://worldportal.news/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2b5796696ef052ded3a53e0a1a0e421a.png


    In 2016, as in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944, upstaters were right and downstaters wrong. Except at the very top.

    Trump is De Gaulle.

    Or maybe Caesar. (But Julius or Augustus? It makes a big difference.)

  209. @Corvinus
    "This is why I think the hysteria over lack of ventilators is misplaced."

    Tell that to state governors, hospital staff, but more importantly, the patients and their family.

    “Rationing” really wouldn’t be that hard. Americans want to be fair. Give everyone a fighting chance."

    Right, which the Trump Administration is NOT meeting its promise.

    "But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable."

    Right. #DieForTheDow

    Every time I see “corvinus” I read “coronavirus” and vice-versa. Maybe it’s my strong urge for social distancing?

  210. @Hypnotoad666

    on the on 2,249 Intensive Care Unit patients with the new disease in England. . . Most are still in the ICU, but of the 690 who aren’t anymore, half got better and half died.
     
    This means that 345 people in England have died of CV to date after going to the ICU. But they are currently claiming a total of 4,934 British deaths.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-britain-united-kingdom-infection-deaths-symptoms-2020-3

    Can it be true that only 7% (645/4,934) of the people who actually died from CV required ICU treatment? How are the rest dying?

    Do they drop dead too fast for any intervention? Or, is the medical system failing to give them ICU treatment? Or, does the 4,934 number actually include a lot of people who really died of other stuff, and who therefore didn't end up going through the full progression of respiratory symptoms that a terminal CV case would entail?

    Inquiring minds want to know.

    How are the rest dying?

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities, adult foster care homes.

    All, oddly enough, places where they drop like flies anyway.

    I’m dying to see the numbers for total mortality YTD versus previous years.

  211. @jimmyriddle
    The only victim, so far, who I knew personally, was a woman in her late 80s. I won't be allowed to attend the funeral.

    The celebrity deaths that I know of are Eddie Large (a comedian aged 79), the Marquis of Bath (74), Adam Schlesinger from the Fountains of Wayne (early 50s). A rather small sample.

    According to Anatoly Karlin you have a better than 50-50 chance of recovering even in your 80s, which is somewhat comforting.

    It looks pretty grim. We really need a treatment that works. Ventilators won't be enough.

    Adam, of Fountains of Wayne, had stage 4 pancreatic cancer. His case has been hyped by the craven media, when he was actually, on the verge of dying anytime. It just irritates me that the public is not aware that he was dying of cancer for a long time. No one survives pancreatic cancer – don’t get tattoos!

    • Replies: @vhrm
    Are you sure? I'm not finding anything an the web about this. (i started looking because i was incensed that i hadn't heard that aspect though I'd heard about his death several times already.)
  212. @Hibernian
    Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.

    Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.

    IDK, But the guy who started the whole thing by eating a bad bowl of bat soup is definitely the Gavrilo Princip of the current World War V.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavrilo_Princip

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmHxq28440c
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS1gROq5iZ8
    https://news.guns.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/browning-1910-WW1-thumb.jpg
    FN 1910 used by Gavrilo Princip.
  213. @Sean

    ... since they are blameless, that means they will never die.
     
    Johnson was far overweight until the other year.

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/126/750x445/1072899.jpg

    Never get fat, it can come back off, but the damage is lasting. The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill. He lacks self control.

    Boris Johnson is not a marathoner, but he did win a historic General Election less than 4 months ago. He is in his prime.

    • Replies: @Lagertha
    And, sheesh, somehow women shag/marry him and he keeps having children! He really upsets men (mostly) because he defies logic and data points...all that stuff.
    , @Sean
    His confusing private life a few years ago was that of a man in his reproductive prime and he lost at least a pound for every year of the 24 year age gap between him and his girlfriend. Losing so much so fast is draining, you take calories from muscle and fat 50/50, and you tend to overshoot. He would have been in a much better position to fight it off with a few extra stable pounds around the waist. 'Ideal' weights are not so good for surviving serious illness. Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38.
    , @Rob (London)
    He's now in intensive care.

    Not on a ventilator - yet - but he's in trouble.
    , @Sean
    Fat is mainly immune cells, that is why fat people have generalised systemic inflammation. Johnson liked a drink or three. I have been told the Glasgow ICUs are full of men in their 40s and 50s with COVID-19. The liver is key to immune response and Scots have the highest rate of cirrhosis in the world, Sugar plus alcohol.

    Anyway, Boris Johnson is now in intensive care.
  214. @Polynikes
    Your anecdotes are worth little. All evidence points to deaths being inflated.

    So deaths are inflated by all evidence?

    They explains the Washington Post article about deaths being underreported. Uh. Wait.

    Where is this “all evidence “ that deaths are being inflated?

    We know people are dying without being tested. That is a fact.

    We know there are a number of false negatives. That is a fact. When a false negative dies, that is not reported as a Coronavirus death.

    We know the death rates in places like Italy have grown more than the reported deaths by Coronavirus. That is a fact.

    And therefore the deaths are being inflated?

    Please explain the “evidence “.

  215. @Reg Cæsar
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hIuryZ8JUJM

    hahahahahaahaaa! Reg, good one! Humor is essential during tough times!

  216. @Anonymous
    This is the way to go.

    https://s3.amazonaws.com/digitaltrends-uploads-prod/2014/08/Star-Wars-stormtroopers.jpg

    I don’t know. They miss all the time.

  217. @Anonymous
    As could I, but it would not be very useful.

    I have worked in motor and transformer winding plants. They are set up for a narrow range of sizes and types and are capital intensive.

    The book on winding motors was literally written in 1920, by which time there were people with 30 to 40 years experience. There are motors dating back from the turn of the 20th century still in revenue service. I occasionally visit a 1912 building whose freight elevator has its original DC motor. It has new brushes and bearings but was never rewound. The mercury arc rectifier was replaced in the seventies and microprocessor control replaced the octal based relays in the 1990s. It runs smoother than a supermodel’s ass. It will probably outlast the building, which still has the mounts for the EMD standby generator in the basement floor from when it was a WWII telegraph nexus.

    “The mercury arc rectifier was replaced in the seventies”

    A neat anachronism of the early twentieth century.

  218. @Steve Sailer
    Boris Johnson is not a marathoner, but he did win a historic General Election less than 4 months ago. He is in his prime.

    And, sheesh, somehow women shag/marry him and he keeps having children! He really upsets men (mostly) because he defies logic and data points…all that stuff.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    And, sheesh, somehow women shag/marry him and he keeps having children! He really upsets men (mostly) because he defies logic and data points…all that stuff.
     
    Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as nothing on Bernie.

    No, not that Bernie. The much older one.


    Apropos of nothing:


    https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/enhanced/webdr02/2013/4/12/13/enhanced-buzz-17889-1365786077-4.jpg?downsize=700%3A%2A&output-quality=auto&output-format=auto
  219. @Sean

    ... since they are blameless, that means they will never die.
     
    Johnson was far overweight until the other year.

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/126/750x445/1072899.jpg

    Never get fat, it can come back off, but the damage is lasting. The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill. He lacks self control.

    The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill. He lacks self control.

    Know how I know you don’t know anything about Winston Churchill?

    • Agree: Bill Jones, JMcG
    • Replies: @Rob McX
    He couldn't hold on to money, for one thing. He only experienced financial stability for the first time at the end of WW2.
  220. @res


    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.
     
    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.
     
    Right. Which means you are taking a group which might have an expected 90% death rate even with ventilators and making it 100% (assume). So 1/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) would be excess deaths due to lack of ventilator capacity. Whereas a naive analysis would use the death rate for the entire ventilator group (70%) and calculate 3/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) excess deaths.

    I think those are pretty decent guesses, and that means the excess deaths with triage might be 1/3 of what you would think from the naive analysis.

    And for those screaming about death panels (not so many here, but out in the world at large...), that is why you do triage.

    Supposedly that is SOP in the UK per this tweet:

    “Absolutely. People with a limited life expectancy are SCREENED OUT of ITU. ITUs are overloaded with people who are explicitly NOT GOING TO DIE SOON anyway. Half of ventilated COVID+ve people die. Half are under 60, but being over 60 doesn’t mean you are about to die.”

    But does anyone know whether that is true?

    Stuart McDonald thread is worth reading, since he’s discussing the report Steve is linking to.

  221. Anonymous[971] • Disclaimer says:
    @George Si
    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr's law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 -- just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly. Spain is just a few days to a week behind Italy.

    New York and New Jersey (two states with high % of Italian-Americans) confirmed case count likely peaked in the first few days of April. Deaths lag in these two states, but should peak in 7-20 days. Total deaths in NY and NJ combined not likely to exceed 35,000. Other states not nearly as bad as NJ and NY. Warmer weather and longer days likely to reduce case and death count further. Total death count in US not likely to exceed 100,000 -- less than 0.03% of total population.

    Wondering if Italians are more genetically disposed to suffer from this particular virus.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week. A case could be made for continuing to restrict very large spectator sporting events and large concerts for a few months.

    For what it's worth, Italy, Spain, NY, NJ and Michigan are of similar latitudes.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.

    Next week meaning when?

    • Replies: @George Si
    Restrictions should be gradually lifted by Easter. Let two people meet each other. By May 1 -- groups of 10 or less. By June 1 -- groups of 100 or less. Maybe faster than that.
  222. @Corvinus
    "Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc."

    Don't be obtuse. It's our government's RESPONSE that matters to this global pandemic to our citizens. The logic is quite simple--Fewer personal interactions under lockdown means a slower rate of community transmission and infections, keeping the direct acute care rate "manageable". But the problem is that Trump is getting in the way of having a coherent strategy by which the states and localities are part of the solution and not deemed as "competitors".

    Do you really want Jared Kushner, a Jew, running the Covid-19 response team? I mean, I keep hearing time and time again from a myriad of posters here that Jews ought NOT to be trusted in positions of authority, right?

    Plenty of Jews I’d trust running this. Jared is not one of them.

  223. @FPD72
    People who don’t have Covid-19 are afraid of going to the ED in my city for fear of being exposed. My younger son is dating a pediatric nurse practitioner who works in an ER. According to her, people are so afraid of being exposed that the ED has lost so much business that they’ve had to lay off employees.

    Another anecdote: mother-in-law is in nursing facility and has an infection for which the prescribed treatment is intravenous antibiotics administered as an infusion in a hospital setting. Her care facility however says that if she goes outside for the treatment she must be quarantined for 21 days before she may return. So here’s an octogenarian who may succumb to sepsis because she has nowhere to go and be quarantined.

    One more: middle aged Down Syndrome man has pneumonia (SARS-CoV-2 negative) and leaves his care facility for hospitalization where the virus has several current patients. Downies have respiratory problems anyway and middle age is old age for them. Last year he spent a month in hospital for pneumonia so he’s got a good chance of picking up our novel virus this time around. Our fevered panic now, however, prevents the guy with an IQ of 30 from having any family visit. If this is his year, it’s a tough way to go – utterly alone and confused.

    Is anyone tallying Covid-19 panic caused deaths yet?

    • Agree: vhrm
  224. @Hypnotoad666

    Who is the Admiral Yamamoto of the Coronavirus crisis? The Hitler? The Mussolini? Etc., etc.
     
    IDK, But the guy who started the whole thing by eating a bad bowl of bat soup is definitely the Gavrilo Princip of the current World War V.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/Gavrilo_Princip%2C_prison%2C_infobox_crop.jpg/220px-Gavrilo_Princip%2C_prison%2C_infobox_crop.jpg

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavrilo_Princip


    FN 1910 used by Gavrilo Princip.

  225. @Mr. Anon

    Note also they are playing trick with the age cohorts – the younger (already smaller group) is 16-49 (I assume none under 16) which is 33 years...
     
    Yes, 16-49 is a meaningless age-category. On average, a 49 year old is not at all like a 16 year-old, or even a 30 year-old. The categories should be broken out by decades as you said.

    On average, a 49 year old is not at all like a 16 year-old

    But if a 16-year-old knocks up a 49-year-old, he’s on the hook for child support. Unless she aborts, a decision in which he has no say.

    What’s the record age gap for a pregnant couple in which the male partner is younger?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Well, boys start making swimmers as tweens or early teens and women go to menopause in their late 30s or early 40s. So there somewhere is an absolute record of probably just under a 40 year gap but 25 years is probably relatively common as cougars line up young stuff and have a change of life oops.
  226. @Lagertha
    Adam, of Fountains of Wayne, had stage 4 pancreatic cancer. His case has been hyped by the craven media, when he was actually, on the verge of dying anytime. It just irritates me that the public is not aware that he was dying of cancer for a long time. No one survives pancreatic cancer - don't get tattoos!

    Are you sure? I’m not finding anything an the web about this. (i started looking because i was incensed that i hadn’t heard that aspect though I’d heard about his death several times already.)

    • Replies: @Lagertha
    completely sure.
  227. Anon[377] • Disclaimer says:

    In the Queen’s state address on the Corona Virus, she says that the UK does not have a past it can be proud of:

    “The pride in who we are is not part of our past. It defines our present and our future.” (See 1:55 of video.)

    Did I misunderstand what she said? I think not. Elizabeth II has to go. I’m not against the institution of monarchy, just this particular Monarch.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    In that usage it means it's not ONLY part of the past.

    The speech is saying Brits should endure this just like previous Brits endured previous trials so that future Brits can look back on today's Brits with pride.

    i.e. don't sully the good British name!


    The paragraph from which you quote:

    I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge. And those who come after us will say the Britons of this generation were as strong as any. That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country. The pride in who we are is not a part of our past, it defines our present and our future. The moments when the United Kingdom has come together to applaud its care and essential workers will be remembered as an expression of our national spirit; and its symbol will be the rainbows drawn by children.

     

    , @PiltdownMan

    Did I misunderstand what she said?
     
    Yes. She said British pride lives on, in the present, and will live on, into the future. It is not merely a thing of the past.
    , @22pp22
    That was saying we should live up to our ancestors. PC flies out of the window in times of real crisis.
    , @AnotherDad


    Did I misunderstand what she said? I think not. Elizabeth II has to go. I’m not against the institution of monarchy, just this particular Monarch.
     
    Monarchy is embarrassing to every free man.

    Tribal king-ship--where the men in a tribe acknowledge one of them--strong or cool in battle or wise-as their leader is one thing. The parasitism of "nobility" is another.

    Men with self-respect, will fight to chuck this off and take charge of governing themselves.
  228. • Replies: @MEH 0910
    hbd chick Retweeted:
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1247247671049551873
    https://twitter.com/RealYeyoZa/status/1247245138725941249
  229. @TomSchmidt
    Actually, my walking about freely CANNOT put your life at risk, secure in your locked down bunker. If you choose to go out, you take the consequences. Isn't that how mature adults treat each other?

    By contrast, someone who is feverish or symptomatic who goes out is a like a drunk driver, even if he infects no one, and should suffer penalties.

    By the way, do you agree that moms who send sick kids to school should suffer the same sort of social opprobrium? Drunk drivers go to jail. It'd be nice if we could learn from COVID to at least scorn people who knowingly put others at risk

    It’d be nice if we could learn from COVID to at least scorn people who knowingly put others at risk

    Indeed.
    I did not see my father for six months prior to his death because a friend came to stay with me knowing he had the flu. My father had fibrosis of the lungs having suffered from viral pneumonia two years earlier, so I decided to stay away.

  230. @Lagertha
    And, sheesh, somehow women shag/marry him and he keeps having children! He really upsets men (mostly) because he defies logic and data points...all that stuff.

    And, sheesh, somehow women shag/marry him and he keeps having children! He really upsets men (mostly) because he defies logic and data points…all that stuff.

    Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as nothing on Bernie.

    No, not that Bernie. The much older one.

    Apropos of nothing:

    https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/enhanced/webdr02/2013/4/12/13/enhanced-buzz-17889-1365786077-4.jpg?downsize=700%3A%2A&output-quality=auto&output-format=auto

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    That last face isn’t Kim. It looks a lot like Psy, the Korean pop singer who sang “Gangnam Style.”
    , @Lagertha
    That Bernie at least is good-looking even if he is in his 80's!
  231. @Anon
    Beer pong game spread Covid-19 virus at ski resort in Tyrol. The beer pong mention is about half way down. "The game involved spitting ping pong balls out of their mouths into beer glasses, and those balls were then reused by other people." Blech.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html

    I've been seeing mentions that Covid-19 doesn't seem to be airborne, just spread by droplets. I wonder what percentage of party-goers have shown up with Covid-19 so far compared to the stay-at-home introverts?

    It seems that authorities in Ischgl, where the problem was kept under wrap, have their fair share of blame for clusters of corona infections as far away as Iceland.

  232. @utu

    Germans are tracking the transmission problem... but it’ll probably be months until they publish any results.
     
    Prof. Hendrik Streeck

    https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-german-scientists-hope-to-find-answers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot

    "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven,"

    "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html

    ‘We know it’s not a smear infection that is transmitted by touching objects, but that close dancing and exuberant celebrations have led to infections.’

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/these-are-answers-we-need-who-plans-global-study-discover-true-extent-coronavirus

    Virologist Hendrik Streeck of Bonn’s University Hospital says he and his colleagues used WHO’s protocols to help shape their study. He says initial results could be announced as early as next week.

    The “next week” is for the results of the antibody survey, which I’m definitely looking forward to.

    But didn’t see projected dates for the current transmission investigation. The house of infected people where they found no bootable virus on surfaces is def interesting; I’d forgotten about it.

  233. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    This is presented as a wacky novelty story. But it seems potentially … scary:

    Tiger at Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus, and others have symptoms, zoo says
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241788246.html

    Officials believe the cats were infected by an asymptomatic person with the virus who’d been caring for them, according to the release.

    If, for instance, housecats can get coronavirus from humans, why couldn’t they give it to humans? They’re constantly licking stuff.

    • Replies: @Lot
    My cat is under 55 and a non-smoker, so I’m not worried.
    , @Rosie

    If, for instance, housecats can get coronavirus from humans, why couldn’t they give it to humans? They’re constantly licking stuff.
     
    The thing about house cats is that, well, they're house cats. They belong in the house. I have no reason to worry about my puddy tats, because I don't let them run the neighborhood.
  234. Steve, this will take you back a ways: ultra-Orthodox Jew Aaron Rubashkin, 93, of the famously corrupt Agriprocessors meatpacking company, has fallen victim to the coronavirus. Couldn’t have happened to a better person. I’m sure all of Postville, Iowa is deep in mourning.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Steve, this will take you back a ways: ultra-Orthodox Jew Aaron Rubashkin, 93, of the famously corrupt Agriprocessors meatpacking company, has fallen victim to the coronavirus. Couldn’t have happened to a better person. I’m sure all of Postville, Iowa is deep in mourning.
     
    Agree ... except this piece of shit made it to 93.

    Postville--a short hour's drive from my cousin's farm--is a poster child for the joys of "di-versity" and having your community given the middle man minority treatment.

    Scale up to "nation" and that's pretty much the American story.
  235. @Reg Cæsar

    And, sheesh, somehow women shag/marry him and he keeps having children! He really upsets men (mostly) because he defies logic and data points…all that stuff.
     
    Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as nothing on Bernie.

    No, not that Bernie. The much older one.


    Apropos of nothing:


    https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/enhanced/webdr02/2013/4/12/13/enhanced-buzz-17889-1365786077-4.jpg?downsize=700%3A%2A&output-quality=auto&output-format=auto

    That last face isn’t Kim. It looks a lot like Psy, the Korean pop singer who sang “Gangnam Style.”

  236. The Dog That Did Not Bark here is cases by age bracket. More specifically, the fact that it’s hard to find for the UK (at least, in a timely fashion).

    In order to work out what table 5 in the report means in practical terms – its relevance to a case of a given age – you need to know what proportion of UK cases in each (weird bespoke) age bracket require an ICU.

    Then you can get some guesses about your conditional likelihood of requiring an ICU if you’re X years of age and you test positive, and then table 5 gives your conditional likelihood of death.

    Since we have count data for ICU patients by (weird bespoke) age brackets, if we had cases by age bracket, it would be possible to make some general statements about age-related risk.

    Bespoke age brackets rarely exist by accident. Just sayin’.

    I haven’t done much on the UK yet, but I’ve just spent 15 minutes trying to find comparable data to what I needed for Italy[1] for age-group CFRs – and for the UK I can’t find any data for the distribution of cases by age group. Weird.

    15 minutes is a long time for anybody who has any experience at refining search terms. It’s never taken me this long to find cases by age group (it’s not on Statista either: those guys are generally a good guide to whether it exists).

    .

    However since we have a population pyramid for the UK with 5-year age bands, we can say things about the age-cohort probabilities at this point in time.

    Age :: Lived :: Died :: Total :: AgePop :: % ICU/AgePop
    16-49  ::  94 :: 29 :: 123 :: 30143396 :: 0.00040805
    50-69 :: 188 :: 142 :: 330 :: 16344840 :: 0.002018986
    <70  ::  282 :: 171 :: 453 :: 58438145 :: 0.00082317
    70+ ::  82 :: 175 :: 257 :: 9092016 :: 0.002826656

    So as usual, the population risk for under 70s is a power of 2 and an order of magnitude, less than the population risk for over 70s. (Bear in mind: this is the unconditional probability that a person in each age cohort requires a covid19-related ICU bed; to get to dead from there use the dead/live split in each row).

    Also as usual, the table layout will be shit – because not only can’t you use <table> tags, you can’t even use <pre> tags which would enable emacs-style tables. I hope ’emsp’ and ‘ensp’ HTML entities work, otherwise the table is going to be an absolute dog’s breakfast and I can’t be fucked trying to edit it into shape in 5 minutes.

    Here’s a pic of the table just in case. Skeptics can verify the pop counts at populationpyramid.net

    .

    This is why I have been sticking the boot into the amateurish data collection/collation by governments – assuming they’re interested in getting really good eyes on their data, by people with significant experience in how data ‘hangs together’ semantically (as opposd to their in-house data ‘scientists’ who can (sometimes) present stuff with tooltips and rounded corners.

    Another few examples like this, and it starts to smell like deliberate obfuscation.

    Getting data structures right and building a decent data API should take a competent person about an hour and a half; get it done once and other governments can replicate it in 1/10th the time. There’s no excuse for the absence of a timely, comprehensive, well-structured data API for every country.

    Instead, I’ve often found that if the data is being collated, it often appears on the website of some government authority that nobody’s ever heard of (e.g., Australian age/sex breakdowns are on the website of the “National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System“, after three dropdowns – and can’t be automatically ‘scraped’ by a simple script).

    Good thing is: once I find it and set up a retrieval mechanism, it can be updated and stored daily.

    Another good thing: it’s showing everyone that .gov can gather all the data on us that it wants, but it is totally retarded as far as setting that data up for half-decent analysis. CompSci ‘HelloWorld’ analysis is about all we need to fear from .gov – but much smarter people will exploit .gov ‘HelloWorld’ data security, which is more worrisome.

    [1] Data for Italy :: Available for UK?

    Data for Italy :: Available for UK?
    ICU Deaths by age cohort :: Yes (in report)
    UK Deaths by Age cohort :: Nope (WTF?)
    Cases by Age cohort :: Nope (WTF?)
    Population Pyramid :: Yes
    Comorbidity data :: Yes (for ICU deaths – in report)

    • Thanks: ic1000
  237. @Anon
    In the Queen's state address on the Corona Virus, she says that the UK does not have a past it can be proud of:

    "The pride in who we are is not part of our past. It defines our present and our future." (See 1:55 of video.)
    https://youtu.be/2klmuggOElE?t=115

    Did I misunderstand what she said? I think not. Elizabeth II has to go. I'm not against the institution of monarchy, just this particular Monarch.

    In that usage it means it’s not ONLY part of the past.

    The speech is saying Brits should endure this just like previous Brits endured previous trials so that future Brits can look back on today’s Brits with pride.

    i.e. don’t sully the good British name!

    The paragraph from which you quote:

    I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge. And those who come after us will say the Britons of this generation were as strong as any. That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country. The pride in who we are is not a part of our past, it defines our present and our future. The moments when the United Kingdom has come together to applaud its care and essential workers will be remembered as an expression of our national spirit; and its symbol will be the rainbows drawn by children.

    • Agree: jim jones
    • Replies: @anon
    I see what you mean. Confusing, or maybe it's just me.
  238. Anonymous[266] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    On average, a 49 year old is not at all like a 16 year-old
     
    But if a 16-year-old knocks up a 49-year-old, he's on the hook for child support. Unless she aborts, a decision in which he has no say.

    What's the record age gap for a pregnant couple in which the male partner is younger?

    Well, boys start making swimmers as tweens or early teens and women go to menopause in their late 30s or early 40s. So there somewhere is an absolute record of probably just under a 40 year gap but 25 years is probably relatively common as cougars line up young stuff and have a change of life oops.

  239. @res


    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.
     
    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.
     
    Right. Which means you are taking a group which might have an expected 90% death rate even with ventilators and making it 100% (assume). So 1/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) would be excess deaths due to lack of ventilator capacity. Whereas a naive analysis would use the death rate for the entire ventilator group (70%) and calculate 3/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) excess deaths.

    I think those are pretty decent guesses, and that means the excess deaths with triage might be 1/3 of what you would think from the naive analysis.

    And for those screaming about death panels (not so many here, but out in the world at large...), that is why you do triage.

    Oncw ICUs are swamped, the naive assumption is the correct assumption.

    • Replies: @res

    Oncw ICUs are swamped, the naive assumption is the correct assumption.
     
    Right. If they become swamped (perhaps you could define that term?). Which is why I have spent so much time talking about the aggressive scenario in this model
    https://qventus.com/blog/predicting-the-effects-of-the-covid-pandemic-on-us-health-system-capacity/
    which indicates that at the peak the state ICU capacities will be in the range of 100-150%. I would not call that swamped. Though they are overloaded and triage would be necessary. At 150% of capacity 1 in 3 patients would be denied an ICU bed. That seems like a decent ratio for triage to still be effective.

    Alternative models for ICU capacity welcomed. I have had trouble finding others. Seems like an important thing to understand so a bit surprising there is so little analytical discussion of it--despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the topic.

    I should add that individual hospitals being swamped is quite possible if there is uneven demand within a state and the state does a poor job of allocating resources.

    P.S. BTW, that model seems to assume all ICU patients will be placed on vents (hover over states to see more detail). Which based on the English paper we are discussing seems not to be necessarily true. If they assume vents are the limiting factor then they are probably underestimating ICU capacity as the term is used in this paper.
  240. @Anon
    In the Queen's state address on the Corona Virus, she says that the UK does not have a past it can be proud of:

    "The pride in who we are is not part of our past. It defines our present and our future." (See 1:55 of video.)
    https://youtu.be/2klmuggOElE?t=115

    Did I misunderstand what she said? I think not. Elizabeth II has to go. I'm not against the institution of monarchy, just this particular Monarch.

    Did I misunderstand what she said?

    Yes. She said British pride lives on, in the present, and will live on, into the future. It is not merely a thing of the past.

  241. @vhrm
    In that usage it means it's not ONLY part of the past.

    The speech is saying Brits should endure this just like previous Brits endured previous trials so that future Brits can look back on today's Brits with pride.

    i.e. don't sully the good British name!


    The paragraph from which you quote:

    I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge. And those who come after us will say the Britons of this generation were as strong as any. That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country. The pride in who we are is not a part of our past, it defines our present and our future. The moments when the United Kingdom has come together to applaud its care and essential workers will be remembered as an expression of our national spirit; and its symbol will be the rainbows drawn by children.

     

    I see what you mean. Confusing, or maybe it’s just me.

  242. @unit472
    To paraphrase Forrest Gump "Hospital is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get"! I had a wicked looking rash on my left calf. My PCP sent me to a dermatologist to have a look only she wasn't there so her nurse practitioner examined me and said it was just hives and gave me some ointment to put on it. The rash went away after a few weeks but then my urine turned amber. I had some blood work done and was told to report to the ER by my doc. I did and gave them a urine sample. Then a newly hired nurse ( I overheard her being asked if she knew how to insert a catheter in a man's penis) came in and put the device down my penis. She damaged my bladder and it began to bleed. To stop the bleeding they put a two liter bag of saline hanging above my bed to flush my bladder. Problem was blood clots and that blocked my urinary canal. My bladder was being pressurized and I was in agony. A nurse tried to massage my genitals to work the clots out but it kept happening. I was screaming in pain and finally just ripped all the tubing out of me. That enraged the nurses but they did track down a urologist who took the nurses out of my room and told them they were lucky they hadn't killed me. I was then taken to surgery to have my bladder repaired. NONE of this had anything to do with my actual problem.

    The rash on my calf was an early indicator or wegener's granulomatosis, a rare autoimmune disease that, in my case went on to attack my kidneys leaving me with only 11% capacity and condemned to dialysis for the rest of my life which will be short indeed if I get Covid-19

    Thanks, that is a rough story, but an important message: it’s probably not worth going into a hospital if you’re walking.

  243. Anon[197] • Disclaimer says:

    One thing that bears repeating is that in a pandemic, the death rate is front-end loaded. The people most likely to die, the ones that make your death rates look godawful, the ones in a population with pre-existing health conditions, don’t suddenly all die at the end of a pandemic; they die in the earlier stages. As time goes on, the death rates fall because the virus starts infecting only people with stronger immune systems who are more resistant to it.

    Some of this also follows the pattern of viral load. People with weak immune systems develop a heavy viral load before they die. When these people come in contact with others, they pass on some of that heavy viral load and make some people even with strong immune systems sick. However, once all the people with weak immune systems and massive viral loads have died out of a population, there is no more passage on of heavy viral loads any more. The remaining people with stronger immune systems only develop a moderate or small viral load. This means the later-infected start from a better point in their course of their disease, having immune systems that are able to attack and destroy a small viral load quite adequately.

    Sometimes epidemiologists interpret this as, “The virus mutated into a more mild form.” Well, no, it didn’t. It’s just the most sick died and the remainder of the population was more resistant. It’s not the germ, it’s the terrain.

    • Replies: @res
    Good point. Have you seen any attempts to quantify this effect?
    , @Hypnotoad666
    You make a good point about the most vulnerable being the first victims. However, their infection rate and death rate would naturally be dependent on their rate of exposure in the first place. That could still be a rolling process that wouldn't necessarily be front-loaded.

    Your related point that the vulnerable could be super-spreaders due to their high viral loads is also very interesting. I haven't seen anyone say that elsewhere.

    Both points obviously come together in the nursing home context, where the rate of spread and the fatality rate would both be at their highest.

    Quarantining the old and vulnerable would thus be both good offense and good defence against the virus.
    , @utu
    "the death rate is front-end loaded" - What does it even mean? I sense a muddled thinking here. Time of death Td for each victim of the epidemic is the time of infection Ti plus ∆(x) where x is the severity of the pre-existing health condition: Td=Ti+∆(x). Let assume that this disease takes less time to kill less healthy people, so ∆(x) for them is smaller than for healthier people: ∆(x1)>∆(x2) means that x1 is healthier than x2. Time of infection Ti is independent of x. The virus does no know the health of people it infects. Let assume that the histogram of Ti is a symmetric bell curve. Then for each group with the same x (x-group) the histogram of time of death Td is the same symmetric bell curve but shifted by ∆(x). The sum of all those histograms will not be symmetric, it will be skewed. Its skewness however can be either negative or positive depending on mortality rates for different x-groups and the proportion of x-groups sizes in the population. The same disease in two different populations may have opposite skewness meaning that the 'front-end loading' whatever it supposed to mean can't be detected from the data.
  244. @Anon
    In the Queen's state address on the Corona Virus, she says that the UK does not have a past it can be proud of:

    "The pride in who we are is not part of our past. It defines our present and our future." (See 1:55 of video.)
    https://youtu.be/2klmuggOElE?t=115

    Did I misunderstand what she said? I think not. Elizabeth II has to go. I'm not against the institution of monarchy, just this particular Monarch.

    That was saying we should live up to our ancestors. PC flies out of the window in times of real crisis.

  245. @res
    Thanks for this data, Steve!

    To summarize, we have 2,249 people admitted to the ICU. Of those 344 were discharged alive and 346 died leaving 1559 in critical care. So roughly speaking 1/7 lived, 1/7 died, and 5/7 are still under care. So the big question is what happens to those 5/7. Based on the survival curves in Figure 11 showing all patients with 50% survival at 30 days, I am guessing half of the 5/7 die, but I would feel better with a double check of my reasoning, and better still with hard data saying that outright.

    Some definitions:

    - Advanced respiratory: invasive ventilation, BPAP via translarygeal tube or tracheostomy, CPAP via translaryngeal tube, or extracorporeal respiratory support

    - Basic respiratory: >50% oxygen by face mask, close observation due to potential for acute deterioration, physiotherapy/suction to clear secretions at least two-hourly, recently extubated after a period of mechanical ventilation, mask/hood CPAP/BPAP, non-invasive ventilation, CPAP via a tracheostomy, intubated to protect airway
     
    Table 4 breaks patients down into those categories.

    I think "Advanced respiratory" is a fairly good proxy for "ventilators." There were 388 of those cases with 127 surviving and 261 dying. The average length of stay in critical care was 7 days for survivors, 5 days for non-survivors.

    So two thirds of people placed on ventilator died anyway. I think this supports the idea that concern over ventilator capacity is overblown in terms of materially increasing the overall death rate. But denying ventilator access would cause preventable deaths which are worth worrying about. It is just that ventilators are not the difference between apocalypse and not-apocalypse.

    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.

    Figure 11 provides a good way of looking at this data. There we see 30 day survival rates of:
    All patients - 50%
    Patients not receiving mechanical ventilation in the first 24h - 71%
    Patients receiving mechanical ventilation in the first 24h - 34%

    For comparison, I linked a study from Wuhan here:
    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/china-skates/#comment-3818413

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

    The organ dysfunction and treatment of the 138 patients are shown in Table 4. As of February 3, 2020, 85 patients (61.6%) were still hospitalized. A total of 47 patients (34.1%) had been discharged, and 6 patients (4.3%) had died. Of the 36 patients admitted to the ICU, 11 were still in the ICU, 9 had been discharged to home, 10 had been transferred to the general wards, and 6 had died. Of the 11 patients who remained in the ICU, 6 received invasive ventilation (1 switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) and 5 to noninvasive ventilations).

     

    So 6/36 of ICU patients died (none who weren’t admitted to ICU died, 0/102) and 11/36 were still in the ICU (which I assume is not a good sign). So we are looking at between 1/6 and 1/2 of patients admitted to the ICU dying anyway.
     
    Those numbers seem in the ballpark of these English numbers which gives me more confidence in both.

    Thanks.

    So, like you, I’m a little less concerned about the ventilator shortage (because people who need ventilators are in dire straits even with all the care in the world) and more concerned about a potential general hospital bed shortage (because we really want to give treatment to people who need hospital treatment but not ventilator treatment).

    • Replies: @Anon

    more concerned about a potential general hospital bed shortage (because we really want to give treatment to people who need hospital treatment but not ventilator treatment).
     
    So your impression is that people who are admitted to the hospital have better outcomes than people who would have been admitted but for a bed shortage? That may be true, but isn't obviously true without data.

    Simple oxygen at home is an alternative that keeps you out of a high-virus-load environment but lowers breathing distress. And hospital beds are likely to be temporary setups and medical personnel likely to be med students, unlicensed Haitian nurses, affirmative-actioned black nurses with attitude ("you fucking cracker"), or ex-hairdressers that your governor has decided are good enough to temporarily deputize for health work.
  246. @Buffalo Joe
    Steve,years ago, when I was early forties, I contracted pericarditis, an infection in the sac that contains your heart. The heart beats in what is a vat of pus and the stress is like a heart attack. I was placed in ICU and recovered in two days to where I could be discharged to a room or to home. I chose home. The nurse whose job was to wheel me to the lobby pushed me around for a while and then said, "I am lost. Usually when you leave ICU you go a room or the morque." Yikes.

    That’s a memorable anecdote for illustrating the point. Thanks.

  247. Anonymous[266] • Disclaimer says:

    Not OT:

    Marianne “Mars Bar” Faithfull diagnosed with virus and in hospital in UK.

  248. I know the CIA is useless. It has never predicted anything and it is responsible for dozens of lies and false flags. Mossad failed miserably to predict the Yom Kippiur War. So I am not surprised that the “intelligence” community failed to determine how bad this really is.

    But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don’t quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!

    I prepared as best I could starting on January 23rd. I tried to warn people and was ignored. During a yelled conversation with two neighbours, it transpired they had forgotten my warnings. I said: “Watch my lips. This is going to be bad.” I got the unusual PC smirk for my troubles.

    This is going to upend the world like a major war.

    In NZ we are the most isolated country on earth nas one of the last countries to be affected. We are also one of the most PC. We could have kept the disease out, but government time and attention was devoted instead to new hate-speech laws and partial-birth abortion.

    We are now in lock-down like everyone else.

    Smug PC people do smug PC and nothing else. It is the only thing that occupies their minds.

    New Caledonia and American Samoa were never affected by the Spanish flu. We didn’t need to be.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke

    But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don’t quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!
     
    There's a real monkey see, monkey do aspect to this comparison. Since when have we followed Communist China's lead on anything? In the 1950's, Mao Zedong decided to build a steel plant in every backyard, by melting down iron implements of all kinds. Should Eisenhower have followed his example?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

    He initiated the Cultural Revolution in the late 60's. I can't imagine anyone would have suggested that LBJ ape this move:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution

    Then there was Deng Xiaoping's 1 child policy in the late 70's. No one seems to have considered it a particularly good idea, then or now - at least not enough to follow in Deng's footsteps:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

    Bottom line is that Chinese leaders do things that are strange to foreign eyes for reasons that are not only opaque to outsiders, but also frequently disastrous for the Chinese population. They are not exemplars in any shape or form, except in a negative way.
    , @HA
    "This is going to upend the world like a major war."

    I'm worried that it might just spark one. People are really angry at China now and want some kind of payback. That kind of thinking can spiral out of control in much the same way as a novel virus in a city run by lying, coverup-obsessed, Communist bureaucrats.

    China should be sued for $6.5 trillion for coronavirus damages says top UK think tank

    Saber rattling to follow.

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don’t quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!"

    Bedwetting boomers just did, QED.

    Calm yourself, ninnie.
  249. @TomSchmidt
    “But if you have been on that ventilator a week or two and aren’t getting better and they need it for someone else, your family will just have to accept the inevitable.”

    Right. #DieForTheDow


    Despite your puerile sloganeering, you ignored the commenter's logic. In this world, ventilators are scarce. That's not going to change immediately. It's plausible that someone who will not be saved by using a ventilator is occupying one, blocking someone with a better chance. Your insistence is that that latter person die, which you don't want to explicitly say. Essentially, "I got here first and I got mine, Jack". Let's call it:

    #DieForTheQueue.

    “Despite your puerile sloganeering…”

    Replace “puerile” with “sensible” and you would be accurate.

    “Essentially, “I got here first and I got mine, Jack”. ”

    Exactly why Trump is to blame. The ventilators are scarce now. They didn’t have to be is the point. Do you want someone like Kushner in charge of the health of YOU or YOUR loved ones during this global pandemic?

  250. @Hibernian
    Reverend Corvinus strikes again.

    Someone has to carry the moral weight around here. Why do you apparently slack off in this regard?

  251. @Hypnotoad666

    on the on 2,249 Intensive Care Unit patients with the new disease in England. . . Most are still in the ICU, but of the 690 who aren’t anymore, half got better and half died.
     
    This means that 345 people in England have died of CV to date after going to the ICU. But they are currently claiming a total of 4,934 British deaths.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-britain-united-kingdom-infection-deaths-symptoms-2020-3

    Can it be true that only 7% (645/4,934) of the people who actually died from CV required ICU treatment? How are the rest dying?

    Do they drop dead too fast for any intervention? Or, is the medical system failing to give them ICU treatment? Or, does the 4,934 number actually include a lot of people who really died of other stuff, and who therefore didn't end up going through the full progression of respiratory symptoms that a terminal CV case would entail?

    Inquiring minds want to know.

  252. @George Si
    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr's law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 -- just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly. Spain is just a few days to a week behind Italy.

    New York and New Jersey (two states with high % of Italian-Americans) confirmed case count likely peaked in the first few days of April. Deaths lag in these two states, but should peak in 7-20 days. Total deaths in NY and NJ combined not likely to exceed 35,000. Other states not nearly as bad as NJ and NY. Warmer weather and longer days likely to reduce case and death count further. Total death count in US not likely to exceed 100,000 -- less than 0.03% of total population.

    Wondering if Italians are more genetically disposed to suffer from this particular virus.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week. A case could be made for continuing to restrict very large spectator sporting events and large concerts for a few months.

    For what it's worth, Italy, Spain, NY, NJ and Michigan are of similar latitudes.

    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr’s law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 — just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly.

    Unfortunately, I really don’t think those Italian totals are correct. The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don’t bother testing corpses for the virus, and very large numbers of the victims are apparently dying at home, untested and unhospitalized. So the true body-count may be five times larger:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    The WSJ had a big article saying the same thing a couple of days ago. Incidentally, that huge discrepancy may completely throw off the reliability of Italian data on all sorts of other factors, including the age and health of the victims.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.

    Well, it’s nice to see that the totally insane are properly represented on these comment-threads.

    • Replies: @Deckin
    When you look at the log graphs of total case growth at Worldometer, Italy, Germany and Spain look very similar (with the same values on the y-axis); then look at Sweden and Iran and they look similarly the same and basically just like the graphs of Italy, Germany and Spain but lower by a factor of 10.

    How is it that these countries, with their varying responses to the virus (I believe Sweden and Iran basically let it rip, whereas Germany imposed CA like restrictions actually after CA and over a full week after Italy) have such similar profiles at this stage of the game?

    I know the standard response in these parts is 'just wait' for Germany, or 'random outbreak followed by exponential growth', but Germany has been virtually matching Spain case for case since the middle of March and is flattening out just like Spain and Italy and Sweden and Iran now.

    I'd really like to know.

    , @utu
    "I really don’t think those Italian totals are correct. " - Right, but they still can be giving us an accurate picture about that the epidemic in Italy has peaked already providing that the countermeasures remain in place.
    , @George Si
    According to "reported" case counts (which you do not believe in Italy), Italy, New York and Spain are in the 8th inning of a 9 inning game. Daily reported case counts are clearly in decline. New Jersey is likely in the 6th inning.

    The news article you reference is old. Even if deaths are really multiples of reported -- they are still declining rapidly in both Italy and Spain. Both of these countries are in decline, but still 1st world -- thousands of bodies are not decomposing in homes in these 1st world countries.

    Reported cases lag incurred cases by about a week in New Jersey (I live in Bergen County, the epicenter of New Jersey). Reported daily case count in NJ is peaking now, which probably means incurred cases peaked in late March and transmission rates peaked in mid-March. The social distancing worked. The disease is being crushed. By May 15, 99% of the story will have been written.
    , @TelfoedJohn
    Sweden has few restrictions, yet they are not doing terribly. Of course, time may tell. Something close to their approach might be best - over 65s and people with existing conditions should self-isolate, and others live as normal.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don’t bother testing corpses for the virus"

    Well, you're in luck because the US is over-counting kung flu deaths. The sacred, holy CDC is encouraging hospitals to attribute any and all deaths during The Duration to kung flu, without testing any body [pun].

    Kinda like how during a heatwave, all deaths are attributed to the heatwave because it's good for the global climate warming crisis industry.

    All you eighth-grade math wizards may get that exponential death curve you've lusted after for a month now thanks to the CDC.

  253. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    This is hilarious and kind of brilliant:

    Panama is quarantining women and men on different days during its coronavirus lockdown
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/panama-gives-women-men-different-coronavirus-lockdown-days-2020-4

    I’m imagining how this would play out in the United States. Hahaha.

    But think about it. Enforcement of the “essential outings” rules is hard for cops:

    — People in Europe and New York are “borrowing,” or renting, dogs to walk.

    — In France you print out a couple of forms from the internet and fill them in before going out, but cops have to approach you to read them.

    — In some countries you are assigned outing times by time of day depending on the last digit of your SSN equivalent, but cops have to approach you to check that.

    — China is able to deal with this stuff, but only by going full Orwellian.

    The women/men thing is ingenious:

    — Cops can see at a glance (doesn’t boil the ocean, but 99.9 percent) if you are compliant.

    — Most couples are male-female, so it lowers risk by preventing that “Let’s go shopping together” tendancy.

    — Many rule shirkers will go out with their partner, but it’s less fun alone, so unnecessary trips may be fewer.

    — It eliminates “inter-household” contact where you don’t live with your girlfriend or boyfriend.

    (Household quarantining is critical. You don’t want someone from household A visiting a sibling in household B whose wife’s mother later visits, whose husband is later visited by his daughter, ad infinitum. If single-person quarantine is 15 days, for household quarantine you need an additional 10 or 15 days per household member, but with inter-household contact you need to add another 10 or 15 days, and with chain cheating, it never ends.)

    Other ways to schedule outings for easy enforcibility? Black and white and Asian days? Hahaha. Young, middle aged, and old? Boundaries are fuzzy, but still useful, young cannot fake old and vice versa. Fat people and thin people? Tall and short? Tattooed versus no visible tattoos?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.
    , @Bill Jones
    If you've been locked up with the wife for a week and could only go out without her, many would not be seen before dinner.
    (and vice versa, I'm sure)
    - My own excepted of course.
  254. Anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    So, like you, I'm a little less concerned about the ventilator shortage (because people who need ventilators are in dire straits even with all the care in the world) and more concerned about a potential general hospital bed shortage (because we really want to give treatment to people who need hospital treatment but not ventilator treatment).

    more concerned about a potential general hospital bed shortage (because we really want to give treatment to people who need hospital treatment but not ventilator treatment).

    So your impression is that people who are admitted to the hospital have better outcomes than people who would have been admitted but for a bed shortage? That may be true, but isn’t obviously true without data.

    Simple oxygen at home is an alternative that keeps you out of a high-virus-load environment but lowers breathing distress. And hospital beds are likely to be temporary setups and medical personnel likely to be med students, unlicensed Haitian nurses, affirmative-actioned black nurses with attitude (“you fucking cracker”), or ex-hairdressers that your governor has decided are good enough to temporarily deputize for health work.

    • Replies: @res

    Simple oxygen at home is an alternative that keeps you out of a high-virus-load environment but lowers breathing distress.
     
    Good point. It is interesting how little advice I am seeing about home care. Which can make sense for exactly that reason (and the same applies to doctor's offices). Here is one article.
    https://www.opb.org/news/article/covid-19-coronavirus-symptoms-home-self-care/

    P.S. One nightmare scenario I haven't seen mentioned is what would happen if an antibiotic resistant bacteria starts tearing through a hospital full of patients already weakened by COVID-19. I suppose that is unlikely given how concerned about hygiene the staff is likely to be right now.
  255. @Anon
    OT

    This is presented as a wacky novelty story. But it seems potentially ... scary:

    Tiger at Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus, and others have symptoms, zoo says
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241788246.html

    Officials believe the cats were infected by an asymptomatic person with the virus who’d been caring for them, according to the release.
     
    If, for instance, housecats can get coronavirus from humans, why couldn't they give it to humans? They're constantly licking stuff.

    My cat is under 55 and a non-smoker, so I’m not worried.

  256. res says:
    @but an humble craftsman
    Oncw ICUs are swamped, the naive assumption is the correct assumption.

    Oncw ICUs are swamped, the naive assumption is the correct assumption.

    Right. If they become swamped (perhaps you could define that term?). Which is why I have spent so much time talking about the aggressive scenario in this model
    https://qventus.com/blog/predicting-the-effects-of-the-covid-pandemic-on-us-health-system-capacity/
    which indicates that at the peak the state ICU capacities will be in the range of 100-150%. I would not call that swamped. Though they are overloaded and triage would be necessary. At 150% of capacity 1 in 3 patients would be denied an ICU bed. That seems like a decent ratio for triage to still be effective.

    Alternative models for ICU capacity welcomed. I have had trouble finding others. Seems like an important thing to understand so a bit surprising there is so little analytical discussion of it–despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the topic.

    I should add that individual hospitals being swamped is quite possible if there is uneven demand within a state and the state does a poor job of allocating resources.

    P.S. BTW, that model seems to assume all ICU patients will be placed on vents (hover over states to see more detail). Which based on the English paper we are discussing seems not to be necessarily true. If they assume vents are the limiting factor then they are probably underestimating ICU capacity as the term is used in this paper.

  257. @Anon
    One thing that bears repeating is that in a pandemic, the death rate is front-end loaded. The people most likely to die, the ones that make your death rates look godawful, the ones in a population with pre-existing health conditions, don't suddenly all die at the end of a pandemic; they die in the earlier stages. As time goes on, the death rates fall because the virus starts infecting only people with stronger immune systems who are more resistant to it.

    Some of this also follows the pattern of viral load. People with weak immune systems develop a heavy viral load before they die. When these people come in contact with others, they pass on some of that heavy viral load and make some people even with strong immune systems sick. However, once all the people with weak immune systems and massive viral loads have died out of a population, there is no more passage on of heavy viral loads any more. The remaining people with stronger immune systems only develop a moderate or small viral load. This means the later-infected start from a better point in their course of their disease, having immune systems that are able to attack and destroy a small viral load quite adequately.

    Sometimes epidemiologists interpret this as, "The virus mutated into a more mild form." Well, no, it didn't. It's just the most sick died and the remainder of the population was more resistant. It's not the germ, it's the terrain.

    Good point. Have you seen any attempts to quantify this effect?

  258. @Anon
    OT

    This is presented as a wacky novelty story. But it seems potentially ... scary:

    Tiger at Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus, and others have symptoms, zoo says
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241788246.html

    Officials believe the cats were infected by an asymptomatic person with the virus who’d been caring for them, according to the release.
     
    If, for instance, housecats can get coronavirus from humans, why couldn't they give it to humans? They're constantly licking stuff.

    If, for instance, housecats can get coronavirus from humans, why couldn’t they give it to humans? They’re constantly licking stuff.

    The thing about house cats is that, well, they’re house cats. They belong in the house. I have no reason to worry about my puddy tats, because I don’t let them run the neighborhood.

  259. Len says:

    San Diego County deaths by age group:

    I went back and listened to all the briefings to find demographic info on deaths. Could find mentions of 15 of 19 to date.

    20s – 1
    50s – 1
    70s – 7
    80s – 3
    90s – 3

    All three of the 90s were female. I believe all the rest were male.

    This is out of about 100 who have entered the ICU to date.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    I went back and listened to all the briefings to find demographic info on deaths.
     
    What is the best way to do that efficiently?
  260. res says:
    @Anon

    more concerned about a potential general hospital bed shortage (because we really want to give treatment to people who need hospital treatment but not ventilator treatment).
     
    So your impression is that people who are admitted to the hospital have better outcomes than people who would have been admitted but for a bed shortage? That may be true, but isn't obviously true without data.

    Simple oxygen at home is an alternative that keeps you out of a high-virus-load environment but lowers breathing distress. And hospital beds are likely to be temporary setups and medical personnel likely to be med students, unlicensed Haitian nurses, affirmative-actioned black nurses with attitude ("you fucking cracker"), or ex-hairdressers that your governor has decided are good enough to temporarily deputize for health work.

    Simple oxygen at home is an alternative that keeps you out of a high-virus-load environment but lowers breathing distress.

    Good point. It is interesting how little advice I am seeing about home care. Which can make sense for exactly that reason (and the same applies to doctor’s offices). Here is one article.
    https://www.opb.org/news/article/covid-19-coronavirus-symptoms-home-self-care/

    P.S. One nightmare scenario I haven’t seen mentioned is what would happen if an antibiotic resistant bacteria starts tearing through a hospital full of patients already weakened by COVID-19. I suppose that is unlikely given how concerned about hygiene the staff is likely to be right now.

  261. @Anon
    OT

    This is hilarious and kind of brilliant:

    Panama is quarantining women and men on different days during its coronavirus lockdown
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/panama-gives-women-men-different-coronavirus-lockdown-days-2020-4

    I'm imagining how this would play out in the United States. Hahaha.

    But think about it. Enforcement of the "essential outings" rules is hard for cops:

    -- People in Europe and New York are "borrowing," or renting, dogs to walk.

    -- In France you print out a couple of forms from the internet and fill them in before going out, but cops have to approach you to read them.

    -- In some countries you are assigned outing times by time of day depending on the last digit of your SSN equivalent, but cops have to approach you to check that.

    -- China is able to deal with this stuff, but only by going full Orwellian.

    The women/men thing is ingenious:

    -- Cops can see at a glance (doesn't boil the ocean, but 99.9 percent) if you are compliant.

    -- Most couples are male-female, so it lowers risk by preventing that "Let's go shopping together" tendancy.

    -- Many rule shirkers will go out with their partner, but it's less fun alone, so unnecessary trips may be fewer.

    -- It eliminates "inter-household" contact where you don't live with your girlfriend or boyfriend.

    (Household quarantining is critical. You don't want someone from household A visiting a sibling in household B whose wife's mother later visits, whose husband is later visited by his daughter, ad infinitum. If single-person quarantine is 15 days, for household quarantine you need an additional 10 or 15 days per household member, but with inter-household contact you need to add another 10 or 15 days, and with chain cheating, it never ends.)

    Other ways to schedule outings for easy enforcibility? Black and white and Asian days? Hahaha. Young, middle aged, and old? Boundaries are fuzzy, but still useful, young cannot fake old and vice versa. Fat people and thin people? Tall and short? Tattooed versus no visible tattoos?

    Thanks.

  262. @Ron Unz

    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr’s law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 — just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly.
     
    Unfortunately, I really don't think those Italian totals are correct. The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don't bother testing corpses for the virus, and very large numbers of the victims are apparently dying at home, untested and unhospitalized. So the true body-count may be five times larger:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    The WSJ had a big article saying the same thing a couple of days ago. Incidentally, that huge discrepancy may completely throw off the reliability of Italian data on all sorts of other factors, including the age and health of the victims.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.
     
    Well, it's nice to see that the totally insane are properly represented on these comment-threads.

    When you look at the log graphs of total case growth at Worldometer, Italy, Germany and Spain look very similar (with the same values on the y-axis); then look at Sweden and Iran and they look similarly the same and basically just like the graphs of Italy, Germany and Spain but lower by a factor of 10.

    How is it that these countries, with their varying responses to the virus (I believe Sweden and Iran basically let it rip, whereas Germany imposed CA like restrictions actually after CA and over a full week after Italy) have such similar profiles at this stage of the game?

    I know the standard response in these parts is ‘just wait’ for Germany, or ‘random outbreak followed by exponential growth’, but Germany has been virtually matching Spain case for case since the middle of March and is flattening out just like Spain and Italy and Sweden and Iran now.

    I’d really like to know.

  263. HA says:
    @Anon7
    OT: What about tigers? A tiger at The Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the Virus.

    So it’s jumped species, and presumably has found other animal hosts. The WuFlu will be with us for a long while.

    “So it’s jumped species, and presumably has found other animal hosts.

    Yes, it’s clearly jumped species several times already, which is how it got into humans. If I understand the general thinking, this thing already jumped from horseshoe bats to pangolin (and maybe some civets along the way). In any case:

    Coronavirus can infect cats — dogs, not so much

  264. @Steve Sailer
    Boris Johnson is not a marathoner, but he did win a historic General Election less than 4 months ago. He is in his prime.

    His confusing private life a few years ago was that of a man in his reproductive prime and he lost at least a pound for every year of the 24 year age gap between him and his girlfriend. Losing so much so fast is draining, you take calories from muscle and fat 50/50, and you tend to overshoot. He would have been in a much better position to fight it off with a few extra stable pounds around the waist. ‘Ideal’ weights are not so good for surviving serious illness. Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38.
     
    Doesn’t research show that marathon running is damaging to one’s health? Studies have found damaged heart tissue in marathon runners. Perhaps it leaves the lungs more vulnerable as well? There was a recently publicized story about a lawyer in New York City in his 40s who had run marathons but had to be on a ventilator and almost died because of the coronavirus.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38."

    Long-distance running is hell on the immune system and prematurely ages you. And it makes you ugly.

    It's not the lack of fat that put that wop in the ICU - it's the depleted immune system.
  265. @22pp22
    I know the CIA is useless. It has never predicted anything and it is responsible for dozens of lies and false flags. Mossad failed miserably to predict the Yom Kippiur War. So I am not surprised that the "intelligence" community failed to determine how bad this really is.

    But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don't quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!

    I prepared as best I could starting on January 23rd. I tried to warn people and was ignored. During a yelled conversation with two neighbours, it transpired they had forgotten my warnings. I said: "Watch my lips. This is going to be bad." I got the unusual PC smirk for my troubles.

    This is going to upend the world like a major war.

    In NZ we are the most isolated country on earth nas one of the last countries to be affected. We are also one of the most PC. We could have kept the disease out, but government time and attention was devoted instead to new hate-speech laws and partial-birth abortion.

    We are now in lock-down like everyone else.

    Smug PC people do smug PC and nothing else. It is the only thing that occupies their minds.

    New Caledonia and American Samoa were never affected by the Spanish flu. We didn't need to be.

    But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don’t quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!

    There’s a real monkey see, monkey do aspect to this comparison. Since when have we followed Communist China’s lead on anything? In the 1950’s, Mao Zedong decided to build a steel plant in every backyard, by melting down iron implements of all kinds. Should Eisenhower have followed his example?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

    He initiated the Cultural Revolution in the late 60’s. I can’t imagine anyone would have suggested that LBJ ape this move:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution

    Then there was Deng Xiaoping’s 1 child policy in the late 70’s. No one seems to have considered it a particularly good idea, then or now – at least not enough to follow in Deng’s footsteps:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

    Bottom line is that Chinese leaders do things that are strange to foreign eyes for reasons that are not only opaque to outsiders, but also frequently disastrous for the Chinese population. They are not exemplars in any shape or form, except in a negative way.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    I have not bothered to check back but my recollection is that until about six weeks ago much of the Unz commentariat consoled themselves with the thought that COVID was an East Asian thing. Even though it was already hitting the Iranians hard. A combination of a preoccupation with racial and ethnic genetics and "it can't happen here".
    Could it be that Western leaders were just as dismissive of something preoccupying the Chinese?
  266. @Anonymous

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.
     
    Next week meaning when?

    Restrictions should be gradually lifted by Easter. Let two people meet each other. By May 1 — groups of 10 or less. By June 1 — groups of 100 or less. Maybe faster than that.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    And in the mean time all the working class people starve to death or kill each other.
  267. @YetAnotherAnon
    Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/05/boris-johnson-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus

    Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital.

    Sure, I buy it.

    “Hey, look, this pandemic is serious, even the PM is sick. Better give even yet more emergency powers to the elites to control the population.”

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    "Better give even yet more emergency powers to the elites to control the population."

    He didn't look at all well when he stood on the doorstep last week to "clap for the NHS staff".

    I'm pretty cynical, but I think this is kosher. Several others in his circle have got it.

    PM must be a reasonably stressful job even for a cheeky chappie like Boris.

    Doing that with CV19 is asking for trouble, in hindsight he might have been better off handing over the reins for a week or two and relaxing at Chequers, having his vital functions checked daily by a pretty nurse.

  268. HA says:
    @22pp22
    I know the CIA is useless. It has never predicted anything and it is responsible for dozens of lies and false flags. Mossad failed miserably to predict the Yom Kippiur War. So I am not surprised that the "intelligence" community failed to determine how bad this really is.

    But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don't quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!

    I prepared as best I could starting on January 23rd. I tried to warn people and was ignored. During a yelled conversation with two neighbours, it transpired they had forgotten my warnings. I said: "Watch my lips. This is going to be bad." I got the unusual PC smirk for my troubles.

    This is going to upend the world like a major war.

    In NZ we are the most isolated country on earth nas one of the last countries to be affected. We are also one of the most PC. We could have kept the disease out, but government time and attention was devoted instead to new hate-speech laws and partial-birth abortion.

    We are now in lock-down like everyone else.

    Smug PC people do smug PC and nothing else. It is the only thing that occupies their minds.

    New Caledonia and American Samoa were never affected by the Spanish flu. We didn't need to be.

    “This is going to upend the world like a major war.”

    I’m worried that it might just spark one. People are really angry at China now and want some kind of payback. That kind of thinking can spiral out of control in much the same way as a novel virus in a city run by lying, coverup-obsessed, Communist bureaucrats.

    China should be sued for $6.5 trillion for coronavirus damages says top UK think tank

    Saber rattling to follow.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    Why bother suing? China holds 2 trillion in Treasury bills/notes/bonds. These purchases were likely all direct from the Treasury, the holdings are book entries in a computer. Puff, magically all of the Chinese holdings are cancelled, while the Treasuries held by other creditors are honored. This would not affect the credit rating, nor the ability of the US to borrow one iota, as this would not be seen as a debtor’s default. China has caused this county at least 2 trillion dolllars worth of harm, so we cancel their bond holdings. This for sure is being discussed at high levels, just maybe not 2 trillion dollars worth.
  269. @J.Ross
    https://twitter.com/WBYeats1865/status/1244821557253255169

    A Chinese woman proudly filmed herself buying huge amount of facemasks from multiple US supermarkets

    “This Tweet is from a suspended account. Learn more” They censer quick.

    This is why price gouging in an emergency is a good thing. If the idiot running the store placed a steep premium on the coveted masks, it would to expensive for someone to walk in and fill up a shopping cart.

    If only a profiteer had gotten there first and bought the store’s whole stock and flipped the masks from his truck in the parking lot, then people could still have access masks and they wouldn’t be in China or a hoarder’s basement.

    Price Gouging [ John Stossel]
    In Defense of “Price Gouging”

  270. @Ron Unz

    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr’s law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 — just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly.
     
    Unfortunately, I really don't think those Italian totals are correct. The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don't bother testing corpses for the virus, and very large numbers of the victims are apparently dying at home, untested and unhospitalized. So the true body-count may be five times larger:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    The WSJ had a big article saying the same thing a couple of days ago. Incidentally, that huge discrepancy may completely throw off the reliability of Italian data on all sorts of other factors, including the age and health of the victims.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.
     
    Well, it's nice to see that the totally insane are properly represented on these comment-threads.

    “I really don’t think those Italian totals are correct. ” – Right, but they still can be giving us an accurate picture about that the epidemic in Italy has peaked already providing that the countermeasures remain in place.

  271. @Ron Unz

    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr’s law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 — just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly.
     
    Unfortunately, I really don't think those Italian totals are correct. The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don't bother testing corpses for the virus, and very large numbers of the victims are apparently dying at home, untested and unhospitalized. So the true body-count may be five times larger:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    The WSJ had a big article saying the same thing a couple of days ago. Incidentally, that huge discrepancy may completely throw off the reliability of Italian data on all sorts of other factors, including the age and health of the victims.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.
     
    Well, it's nice to see that the totally insane are properly represented on these comment-threads.

    According to “reported” case counts (which you do not believe in Italy), Italy, New York and Spain are in the 8th inning of a 9 inning game. Daily reported case counts are clearly in decline. New Jersey is likely in the 6th inning.

    The news article you reference is old. Even if deaths are really multiples of reported — they are still declining rapidly in both Italy and Spain. Both of these countries are in decline, but still 1st world — thousands of bodies are not decomposing in homes in these 1st world countries.

    Reported cases lag incurred cases by about a week in New Jersey (I live in Bergen County, the epicenter of New Jersey). Reported daily case count in NJ is peaking now, which probably means incurred cases peaked in late March and transmission rates peaked in mid-March. The social distancing worked. The disease is being crushed. By May 15, 99% of the story will have been written.

    • Agree: Charon
    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    These initial numbers are not the whole story. Wave 1 here in the US will kill fewer than 50,000 people, about the same as a worse than usual flu season. The trick is to make sure that Wave 2 in November does not kill off the at-risk who sheltered in place. Antivirals from antibodies are what is needed, not vaccines. But the numbers of 100,000 to 200,000 dead here in the US are plain wrong. I hope!!
  272. @Anon
    One thing that bears repeating is that in a pandemic, the death rate is front-end loaded. The people most likely to die, the ones that make your death rates look godawful, the ones in a population with pre-existing health conditions, don't suddenly all die at the end of a pandemic; they die in the earlier stages. As time goes on, the death rates fall because the virus starts infecting only people with stronger immune systems who are more resistant to it.

    Some of this also follows the pattern of viral load. People with weak immune systems develop a heavy viral load before they die. When these people come in contact with others, they pass on some of that heavy viral load and make some people even with strong immune systems sick. However, once all the people with weak immune systems and massive viral loads have died out of a population, there is no more passage on of heavy viral loads any more. The remaining people with stronger immune systems only develop a moderate or small viral load. This means the later-infected start from a better point in their course of their disease, having immune systems that are able to attack and destroy a small viral load quite adequately.

    Sometimes epidemiologists interpret this as, "The virus mutated into a more mild form." Well, no, it didn't. It's just the most sick died and the remainder of the population was more resistant. It's not the germ, it's the terrain.

    You make a good point about the most vulnerable being the first victims. However, their infection rate and death rate would naturally be dependent on their rate of exposure in the first place. That could still be a rolling process that wouldn’t necessarily be front-loaded.

    Your related point that the vulnerable could be super-spreaders due to their high viral loads is also very interesting. I haven’t seen anyone say that elsewhere.

    Both points obviously come together in the nursing home context, where the rate of spread and the fatality rate would both be at their highest.

    Quarantining the old and vulnerable would thus be both good offense and good defence against the virus.

  273. Well my aunt with late stage terminal cancer and in her seventies is being released to go home today. She only ever had it very mild, little surprised she was hospitalised in the first place, being potentially exposed to a higher viral load always seemed a bigger threat.

  274. Anonymous[368] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bragadocious
    I sort of imagine Brits like these being the patients.

    https://twitter.com/RTUKnews/status/1239584711346769920

    Big bellies, lots of tattoos, heavy drinkers. Bill Burr calls it the "English fish & chips chest." Also makes you wonder how much of Spain's outbreak has to do with its rather large British expat population, who'd rather sing songs than mask up and shelter in place. Spain must be absolutely delighted to have these people in its country.

    Fondly known in England as the ‘beer gut’.

    In the words of the late, great Benny Hill:

    Female Character to Benny: ‘If that belly was on a girl, why, she would be pregnant’
    Benny Hill: ‘It was, and she is’.

  275. @anon
    This data argues AGAINST a lockdown. The only real benefit from a lockdown that I can see is that by flattening the curve, those that get infected and need hospitalization get to go to a functioning hospital system rather than an overwhelmed hospital system.

    Think more carefully. There are many people who use the hospital, including the ICU. A friend of my just had her third child and unfortunately there were some complications. The child is fine, the mother spent a night in ICU before being moved to a room. None of her family can visit because of quarantine, but at least there was enough hospital capacity to take care of her; her children still have a mother.

    Car accidents happen. Cardiac events happen. All sorts of things happen, and some number of people wind up in the ICU for a time. But if the local ICU is stuffed full of COVID-19 patients there's a problem for other people.

    Flattening the curve is good for the entire community, because ICU space is finite. This should be obvious.

    Agreed. The data show that shelter in place should be mandatory for those > say 65 to 70, plus those with diabetes etc. Everyone else goes to work. Of these at work, all will get the virus, and 99.5 % will recover just fine, with 0.5 % either dying or getting long term disability. The hospitals will not crash. The virus eventually having no new hosts to infect, those who sheltered in place can now come outside. Arrivals from abroad with the virus can still infect them, but the hospitals won’t crash. This is the only sane model; it seems to be the Swedish model, but maybe I am wrong there.
    Lastly, regarding total deaths by / with/from COVID. The only way to know for sure will be in hindsight. That is to say, examine all deaths from all causes for period Jan 2020 to say October 2020, & compare to same period for prior ten years. If for example doctors are classifying deaths as being from COVID when they would in other years have been classified as death from viral pneumonia, then viral pneumonia deaths will drop by the number of increased COVID deaths… but, total deaths would remain stable. I think that here in the US total deaths are about 2.8 million per year (is this right?) so we will know if it spikes to say 2.9m.

  276. @Pericles
    Or he might have bred really dumb pigs. Wild animals are a bit less, um, sanguine about being killed. (Including wild pigs, I'd like to note. Pests.)

    Animals do get pain suffering, getting bitten….

    The “undiscovered country from who’s bourne no traveler returns” yada yada yada, they don’t get, just like the don’t get matrix algebra. Slaughtering animals efficiently is to do it without triggering the things that aren’t death qua death, but generally in the wild do lead to death, that trigger them.

  277. @HA
    "This is going to upend the world like a major war."

    I'm worried that it might just spark one. People are really angry at China now and want some kind of payback. That kind of thinking can spiral out of control in much the same way as a novel virus in a city run by lying, coverup-obsessed, Communist bureaucrats.

    China should be sued for $6.5 trillion for coronavirus damages says top UK think tank

    Saber rattling to follow.

    Why bother suing? China holds 2 trillion in Treasury bills/notes/bonds. These purchases were likely all direct from the Treasury, the holdings are book entries in a computer. Puff, magically all of the Chinese holdings are cancelled, while the Treasuries held by other creditors are honored. This would not affect the credit rating, nor the ability of the US to borrow one iota, as this would not be seen as a debtor’s default. China has caused this county at least 2 trillion dolllars worth of harm, so we cancel their bond holdings. This for sure is being discussed at high levels, just maybe not 2 trillion dollars worth.

    • Replies: @Charon
    Makes sense to me. What'll the Chinese do, cut off trade? Excellent.

    People are demanding debt jubilees for all and sundry special interests. This would be relief for the entire nation.

    Yeah yeah there'll be knock-on effects, but we're a big country with a big economy. We can take it.
    , @Keypusher

    Puff, magically all of the Chinese holdings are cancelled, while the Treasuries held by other creditors are honored. This would not affect the credit rating, nor the ability of the US to borrow one iota, as this would not be seen as a debtor’s default.
     
    Plenty of competition, but this ranks high among the stupidest things I’ve read on Unz.
  278. @Anon
    Mr. Sailer, have you looked into Ivermectin?
    I know a few nerdy cattle ranchers, they started getting to know the substance while it was still looked down upon by veterinarians. One fellow in particular kept his dog alive for years with heart worm.

    At the moment it’s inexpensive, in clinical trials and (like the microwave) they don’t understand how it works on covid. Daily Mail ran an article a couple days ago.

    A couple of boxes in the cupboard could lower stress levels immensely. Life will deal to us all blows and wounds. But we were not made for pleasure. We are meant for greatness. Best wishes.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8186287/Monash-University-scientists-anti-parasite-Ivermectin-kill-COVID-19-cells-two-days.html

    #674, from a Daily Mail article on the 3rd:

    Coronavirus breakthrough as scientists discover a drug used to treat HEAD LICE can kill COVID-19 cells.

    Researchers at Monash University found Ivermectin can kills COVID-19 cells
    The anti-parasite drug killed off the cells within two days and is widely available
    Scientists are moving towards human trials but expect it to be at least a month
    Ivermectin has also been found to work against HIV, influenza and Zika virus”

    930CB99A-05F4-4F42-A29D-F8C4B5DB1B27

    Makes you strong like horse, maybe even Ox! Available @ Amazon (I’m ordering before the run, and $2K price increase.)

    Thanks for the tip #674.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Just remember that's enough Ivermectin to KILL a horse. A horse takes a whole tube of this stuff at once (Ivermectin usually given as a single dose) for deworming but a horse weighs 10x as much as a human. No one knows yet what the correct human dose is for Wuhan Virus but you are going to need some way to weigh or measure it accurately so you don't kill yourself like the guy who took fish tank cleaner ("a heaping spoonful").
    , @anon
    Do you know there is a difference between "in vitro" and "in vivo"?
    "In vitro" means "in a Petri dish".
    "In vivo" means "in a living organism".

    Plenty of compounds cure disease in vitro only to fail in vivo, or even produce bad side effects in vivo.

    Read the article you linked to. We have zero human testing, not even animal testing yet.

    Don't be stupid.
  279. The 50 to 65 age group may not like working under the one percent extra death threat.

    As a a 70 year old, I’m not thrilled to coming out with open borders.

  280. @George Si
    According to "reported" case counts (which you do not believe in Italy), Italy, New York and Spain are in the 8th inning of a 9 inning game. Daily reported case counts are clearly in decline. New Jersey is likely in the 6th inning.

    The news article you reference is old. Even if deaths are really multiples of reported -- they are still declining rapidly in both Italy and Spain. Both of these countries are in decline, but still 1st world -- thousands of bodies are not decomposing in homes in these 1st world countries.

    Reported cases lag incurred cases by about a week in New Jersey (I live in Bergen County, the epicenter of New Jersey). Reported daily case count in NJ is peaking now, which probably means incurred cases peaked in late March and transmission rates peaked in mid-March. The social distancing worked. The disease is being crushed. By May 15, 99% of the story will have been written.

    These initial numbers are not the whole story. Wave 1 here in the US will kill fewer than 50,000 people, about the same as a worse than usual flu season. The trick is to make sure that Wave 2 in November does not kill off the at-risk who sheltered in place. Antivirals from antibodies are what is needed, not vaccines. But the numbers of 100,000 to 200,000 dead here in the US are plain wrong. I hope!!

  281. @TomSchmidt
    How can we get a better fix on timing? Known infections, maybe? You need to know the exact day when someone got infected, and also died.

    The Kirkland nursing home gives a good idea:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-09/how-coronavirus-spread-from-patient-zero-in-seattle

    Patient 0 in Seattle was January 19th. The first death in the home was Feb 19, 31 days later. So infection to death cannot be more than 31 days.

    Most of the population of Bergamo were celebrating their team win a Champions league match on 19 February by drinking and platonically slobbering all over one another into the early hours. That may have showed in the national statistics The COVID-19 deaths in Italy sort of spiked on March 21. Infection to death takes a month.

  282. @Hippopotamusdrome


    Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital.

     

    Sure, I buy it.

    "Hey, look, this pandemic is serious, even the PM is sick. Better give even yet more emergency powers to the elites to control the population."

    “Better give even yet more emergency powers to the elites to control the population.”

    He didn’t look at all well when he stood on the doorstep last week to “clap for the NHS staff”.

    I’m pretty cynical, but I think this is kosher. Several others in his circle have got it.

    PM must be a reasonably stressful job even for a cheeky chappie like Boris.

    Doing that with CV19 is asking for trouble, in hindsight he might have been better off handing over the reins for a week or two and relaxing at Chequers, having his vital functions checked daily by a pretty nurse.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Johnson is not exactly in great physical shape, he should have just rested. Everyone else in the government who got it, and it is a fair number now, have recovered.
  283. @Anon
    OT

    This is hilarious and kind of brilliant:

    Panama is quarantining women and men on different days during its coronavirus lockdown
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/panama-gives-women-men-different-coronavirus-lockdown-days-2020-4

    I'm imagining how this would play out in the United States. Hahaha.

    But think about it. Enforcement of the "essential outings" rules is hard for cops:

    -- People in Europe and New York are "borrowing," or renting, dogs to walk.

    -- In France you print out a couple of forms from the internet and fill them in before going out, but cops have to approach you to read them.

    -- In some countries you are assigned outing times by time of day depending on the last digit of your SSN equivalent, but cops have to approach you to check that.

    -- China is able to deal with this stuff, but only by going full Orwellian.

    The women/men thing is ingenious:

    -- Cops can see at a glance (doesn't boil the ocean, but 99.9 percent) if you are compliant.

    -- Most couples are male-female, so it lowers risk by preventing that "Let's go shopping together" tendancy.

    -- Many rule shirkers will go out with their partner, but it's less fun alone, so unnecessary trips may be fewer.

    -- It eliminates "inter-household" contact where you don't live with your girlfriend or boyfriend.

    (Household quarantining is critical. You don't want someone from household A visiting a sibling in household B whose wife's mother later visits, whose husband is later visited by his daughter, ad infinitum. If single-person quarantine is 15 days, for household quarantine you need an additional 10 or 15 days per household member, but with inter-household contact you need to add another 10 or 15 days, and with chain cheating, it never ends.)

    Other ways to schedule outings for easy enforcibility? Black and white and Asian days? Hahaha. Young, middle aged, and old? Boundaries are fuzzy, but still useful, young cannot fake old and vice versa. Fat people and thin people? Tall and short? Tattooed versus no visible tattoos?

    If you’ve been locked up with the wife for a week and could only go out without her, many would not be seen before dinner.
    (and vice versa, I’m sure)
    – My own excepted of course.

  284. https://public-cdn.sermo.com/covid19/c8/be4e/4edbd4/dbd4ba4ac5a3b3d9a479f99cc5/wave-i-sermo-covid-19-global-analysis-final.pdf

    Interesting survey of physicians treating coronavirus patients, lots of data/responses.

    “Wave I of Sermo’s COVID-19 Barometer Survey was launched on March 25 and fielded over three days. Physicians were not incentivized to participate in the study. The sample represents physicians registered with Sermo, a secure digital (online) platform designed for physician networking and anonymous survey research. The platform is exclusive to verified and licensed physicians.”

  285. @Bragadocious
    I sort of imagine Brits like these being the patients.

    https://twitter.com/RTUKnews/status/1239584711346769920

    Big bellies, lots of tattoos, heavy drinkers. Bill Burr calls it the "English fish & chips chest." Also makes you wonder how much of Spain's outbreak has to do with its rather large British expat population, who'd rather sing songs than mask up and shelter in place. Spain must be absolutely delighted to have these people in its country.

    “Also makes you wonder how much of Spain’s outbreak has to do with its rather large British expat population”

    You’re wrong – again. Madrid and Barcelona are the most heavily impacted areas, not Andalucia.

    Just because you want something to be true doesn’t make it so.

    Guardian live blog April 2

    “The pro-independence leader of Catalonia, the region of Spain hardest hit by the coronavirus after Madrid, has abandoned his government’s initial reluctance to seek help from the Spanish army, saying any assistance would be gratefully received, reports Sam Jones from Madrid.

    Last month, Quim Torra’s separatist administration said the Spanish military was not needed in the region. But as the region confirmed 21,804 cases of the virus and 2,093 deaths on Thursday, Torra asked for help from the army.

    “If they can help us – and if any doctor can come and help us – I’d be very grateful,” he told Radio Ser Catalunya.

    However, while Torra admitted that his government had not kept people sufficiently informed about the desperate situation in Catalonia’s care homes – where 362 people have died from the virus – he said his government was bearing the brunt of the health crisis when it came to resources.

    “We haven’t received any tests from the Spanish state,” he said.

    “The Catalan government is providing 90% of the resources, with the other 10% coming from the Spanish state.”

    Catalonia’s health minister, Alba Vergés, also appealed for assistance from the Spanish military, which is already disinfecting old people’s homes in the region and helping to set up a large field hospital in a conference centre in Barcelona.

    “We need hands,” Vergés told Catalunya Ràdio. “And by ‘hands’, I also mean that if the army has doctors and nurses, they should be made available to us.””

  286. @YetAnotherAnon
    "Better give even yet more emergency powers to the elites to control the population."

    He didn't look at all well when he stood on the doorstep last week to "clap for the NHS staff".

    I'm pretty cynical, but I think this is kosher. Several others in his circle have got it.

    PM must be a reasonably stressful job even for a cheeky chappie like Boris.

    Doing that with CV19 is asking for trouble, in hindsight he might have been better off handing over the reins for a week or two and relaxing at Chequers, having his vital functions checked daily by a pretty nurse.

    Johnson is not exactly in great physical shape, he should have just rested. Everyone else in the government who got it, and it is a fair number now, have recovered.

  287. @Anonymous
    And now a Russian government-funded agency reports that Boris has been hospitalized "out of precaution" (probably true) and will be put on a ventilator (probably not true).
    https://ria.ru/20200406/1569611571.html?rcmd_alg=svd&rcmd_id=1569611410

    In any case, the consistent reports from more than one sources is that he was unable to shake off fever and cough for well over a week. and his pregnant bride is infected too. "It's just a flu".

    Johnson’s ten days fever equals a real risk of developing pneumonia. He apparently had not been seen by a doctor since he was diagnosed, which sounds especially foolhardy considering his responsibilities.

    • Replies: @anon
    When he spoke most recently, he was gasping for air every few words. He is 55 and doesn't look fit as a fiddle. Covid has felled stronger men.
  288. @Pericles
    Lol, what a guy and what a party. They will cooperate with Boris against Corona-chan and otherwise it seems mainly occupy themselves with rooting out anti-semitism. Now that's how you win elections!

    Though there are still some dark clouds over the Tel Aviv Candidate.


    Starmer is a member of Labour Friends of Palestine & the Middle East, a parliamentary group that promotes support for the Palestinians and campaigns for “peace and justice in the Middle East through the implementation of international law and respect for human rights.”
    ...
    Starmer drew criticism in 2017 when he invited a controversial anti-Israel charity to speak to the House of Commons. The Camden Abu Dis Friendship Association has praised Palestinian suicide bombers who targeted Israeli civilians during the Second Intifada.

     

    Suddenly there is a certain froideur in the room. Well, I'm sure this can be quietly adjusted in a nice back room. Or, if worst comes to worst, perhaps his wife can execute the Esther option.

    Finally, this sentence was independently funny.


    The Conservatives have also promised eye-watering sums to keep businesses and individuals afloat, wading into traditional Labour territory.

     

    Does the Balfour Declaration still express the will of the British government?

  289. utu says:
    @Anon
    One thing that bears repeating is that in a pandemic, the death rate is front-end loaded. The people most likely to die, the ones that make your death rates look godawful, the ones in a population with pre-existing health conditions, don't suddenly all die at the end of a pandemic; they die in the earlier stages. As time goes on, the death rates fall because the virus starts infecting only people with stronger immune systems who are more resistant to it.

    Some of this also follows the pattern of viral load. People with weak immune systems develop a heavy viral load before they die. When these people come in contact with others, they pass on some of that heavy viral load and make some people even with strong immune systems sick. However, once all the people with weak immune systems and massive viral loads have died out of a population, there is no more passage on of heavy viral loads any more. The remaining people with stronger immune systems only develop a moderate or small viral load. This means the later-infected start from a better point in their course of their disease, having immune systems that are able to attack and destroy a small viral load quite adequately.

    Sometimes epidemiologists interpret this as, "The virus mutated into a more mild form." Well, no, it didn't. It's just the most sick died and the remainder of the population was more resistant. It's not the germ, it's the terrain.

    “the death rate is front-end loaded” – What does it even mean? I sense a muddled thinking here. Time of death Td for each victim of the epidemic is the time of infection Ti plus ∆(x) where x is the severity of the pre-existing health condition: Td=Ti+∆(x). Let assume that this disease takes less time to kill less healthy people, so ∆(x) for them is smaller than for healthier people: ∆(x1)>∆(x2) means that x1 is healthier than x2. Time of infection Ti is independent of x. The virus does no know the health of people it infects. Let assume that the histogram of Ti is a symmetric bell curve. Then for each group with the same x (x-group) the histogram of time of death Td is the same symmetric bell curve but shifted by ∆(x). The sum of all those histograms will not be symmetric, it will be skewed. Its skewness however can be either negative or positive depending on mortality rates for different x-groups and the proportion of x-groups sizes in the population. The same disease in two different populations may have opposite skewness meaning that the ‘front-end loading’ whatever it supposed to mean can’t be detected from the data.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right. There are two separate processes: getting infected and infected people dying. Most of the evidence suggests that, outside of perhaps Wuhan and northern Italy, most people haven't been infected yet. There's not much reason to think that the people most likely to die from this (the old, the infirm, the fat, etc.) are the most likely to be infected first by Tom Hanks Disease, which tended instead to spread first among the vigorous and popular.
  290. @Semperluctor
    Why bother suing? China holds 2 trillion in Treasury bills/notes/bonds. These purchases were likely all direct from the Treasury, the holdings are book entries in a computer. Puff, magically all of the Chinese holdings are cancelled, while the Treasuries held by other creditors are honored. This would not affect the credit rating, nor the ability of the US to borrow one iota, as this would not be seen as a debtor’s default. China has caused this county at least 2 trillion dolllars worth of harm, so we cancel their bond holdings. This for sure is being discussed at high levels, just maybe not 2 trillion dollars worth.

    Makes sense to me. What’ll the Chinese do, cut off trade? Excellent.

    People are demanding debt jubilees for all and sundry special interests. This would be relief for the entire nation.

    Yeah yeah there’ll be knock-on effects, but we’re a big country with a big economy. We can take it.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    'People are demanding debt jubilees for all and sundry special interests. This would be relief for the entire nation.

    'Yeah yeah there’ll be knock-on effects, but we’re a big country with a big economy. We can take it.'

    Guess that would make me kind of a schmuck for just paying cash for my house and not having any credit card debt, huh?
  291. @Ron Unz

    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr’s law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 — just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly.
     
    Unfortunately, I really don't think those Italian totals are correct. The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don't bother testing corpses for the virus, and very large numbers of the victims are apparently dying at home, untested and unhospitalized. So the true body-count may be five times larger:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    The WSJ had a big article saying the same thing a couple of days ago. Incidentally, that huge discrepancy may completely throw off the reliability of Italian data on all sorts of other factors, including the age and health of the victims.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.
     
    Well, it's nice to see that the totally insane are properly represented on these comment-threads.

    Sweden has few restrictions, yet they are not doing terribly. Of course, time may tell. Something close to their approach might be best – over 65s and people with existing conditions should self-isolate, and others live as normal.

  292. @utu
    "the death rate is front-end loaded" - What does it even mean? I sense a muddled thinking here. Time of death Td for each victim of the epidemic is the time of infection Ti plus ∆(x) where x is the severity of the pre-existing health condition: Td=Ti+∆(x). Let assume that this disease takes less time to kill less healthy people, so ∆(x) for them is smaller than for healthier people: ∆(x1)>∆(x2) means that x1 is healthier than x2. Time of infection Ti is independent of x. The virus does no know the health of people it infects. Let assume that the histogram of Ti is a symmetric bell curve. Then for each group with the same x (x-group) the histogram of time of death Td is the same symmetric bell curve but shifted by ∆(x). The sum of all those histograms will not be symmetric, it will be skewed. Its skewness however can be either negative or positive depending on mortality rates for different x-groups and the proportion of x-groups sizes in the population. The same disease in two different populations may have opposite skewness meaning that the 'front-end loading' whatever it supposed to mean can't be detected from the data.

    Right. There are two separate processes: getting infected and infected people dying. Most of the evidence suggests that, outside of perhaps Wuhan and northern Italy, most people haven’t been infected yet. There’s not much reason to think that the people most likely to die from this (the old, the infirm, the fat, etc.) are the most likely to be infected first by Tom Hanks Disease, which tended instead to spread first among the vigorous and popular.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    If the death rate is 1%, then hundreds of thousands in NYC have already been infected. If it's .1%, then millions have been infected. Some randomized testing would be useful, and maybe we will get that afterwards with antibody blood tests. NYC testing is focused on the symptomatic:
    https://www.aier.org/article/what-does-the-growing-number-of-coronavirus-cases-really-mean/

    If the real death rate from COVID is the .66% (as Imperial College now estimates: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200331/covid-19-death-rate-drops-still-deadly-to-seniors) then at least 630,000 people in NY State have had the disease. If it's lower at .1%,NYC has approached herd immunity at half the population already infected.

    How can we run an immediate test? Sample size calculator shows <2000 people needed for a 99% confidence interval with 3% margin of error for the 8.5 million residents of the city. We need both tests to determine how many are/were infected.
    , @res
    Good point. The idea is that given equal exposure (e.g. walking 5.9 feet away from someone infected) the more likely to die people are also more likely to get infected. But you make an important counterpoint. The more vulnerable people (if they are being sensible, which may be a big assumption in the Current Year, or just because they don't get out) may be less likely to be exposed in the first place.

    But notice how important protecting elder care facilities (as a whole) becomes. I hope they are being diligent about testing staff and making staff limit and trace contacts. I think this is especially important for the lower levels of care (e.g. elder apartment complexes with minimal medical care except as backup) because those people may very well have many years of good life left.
  293. @danand
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8186287/Monash-University-scientists-anti-parasite-Ivermectin-kill-COVID-19-cells-two-days.html

    #674, from a Daily Mail article on the 3rd:

    Coronavirus breakthrough as scientists discover a drug used to treat HEAD LICE can kill COVID-19 cells.

    Researchers at Monash University found Ivermectin can kills COVID-19 cells
    The anti-parasite drug killed off the cells within two days and is widely available
    Scientists are moving towards human trials but expect it to be at least a month
    Ivermectin has also been found to work against HIV, influenza and Zika virus”
     
    https://flic.kr/p/2iMuoiH

    Makes you strong like horse, maybe even Ox! Available @ Amazon (I’m ordering before the run, and $2K price increase.)

    Thanks for the tip #674.

    Just remember that’s enough Ivermectin to KILL a horse. A horse takes a whole tube of this stuff at once (Ivermectin usually given as a single dose) for deworming but a horse weighs 10x as much as a human. No one knows yet what the correct human dose is for Wuhan Virus but you are going to need some way to weigh or measure it accurately so you don’t kill yourself like the guy who took fish tank cleaner (“a heaping spoonful”).

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
  294. @JimDandy
    There are about 47,000 confirmed cases in England. So far 29 people under the age of 50 have died. Some significant percentage of those 29 people had co-morbidities. How many people under the age of 50 with no co-morbidities have died of this virus in England?

    What percentage of the 47,000 are under the age of 50 with no co-morbidities? If you are English, under the age of 50, with no co-morbidities, you have a ___% chance of dying from it?

    Also, it was wrong of people to assume that Steve smoked when they heard that he had cancer, but I'm going to go ahead and assume that some of the English people under 50 who died were heavy smokers. I don't think "heavy smoker" is considered a co-morbidity, but it might as well be.

    If you are English, under the age of 50, with no co-morbidities, you have a ___% chance of dying from it?

    Probably somewhere on the order of .05% or 1 in 2,000 infected, with most of that in the 40-49 group. When it comes to this disease, the younger the better.

    This started out as Tom Hanks Disease and then it was a nursing home disease but it’s going to be a ghetto disease. In Milwaukee, 80% of the dead were black, mostly males. Chicago, 70%. They are the under-65s with the most co-morbidities.

  295. @res
    I think the 5.1 day median incubation period estimate is reasonably solid. Perhaps decrease a bit for deaths because they might be more vulnerable and show symptoms sooner.

    Given the incubation period, it is just a matter of collecting data for time of symptoms to death. Which should be relatively easy if you ask people about symptom onset when they are admitted.

    But I think the approach I am proposing of looking at lockdowns and changes in the death rate is even better because it directly gives you an estimate of the relevant time (how long it takes transmission countermeasures to have an effect).

    As I said in the other thread, my current estimate based on that approach is 16-17 days from infection to death based on the New York and UK lockdowns along with the Louisiana emergency order. I also gave a theoretical estimate of 14.1 days based on study estimates of incubation period and infection-death time. The latter is about 9 days according to an Italian study.
    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/americas-coronavirus-peak/#comment-3819155

    Ron is sticking to his three week estimate, so I guess we will just have to see who turns out to be closer.

    Some worthwhile graphs comparing initiation of lockdown versus deaths are here:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/when-will-coronavirus-lockdowns-be-lifted-here-are-one-banks-estimates

    Hubei has that nice curve that screams fake data, but it does serve as a useful backdrop.

    • Replies: @res
    Thanks. Hard to pull conclusions from that AFAICT. For most countries there are too many different measures at different times. I also think finer granularity locations (e.g. US states, or even cities) are more likely to give good timing estimates given they experience more uniform countermeasures and are more synchronized in overall place in the epidemic progression.
  296. Anonymous[291] • Disclaimer says:
    @Len
    San Diego County deaths by age group:

    I went back and listened to all the briefings to find demographic info on deaths. Could find mentions of 15 of 19 to date.

    20s - 1
    50s - 1
    70s - 7
    80s - 3
    90s - 3

    All three of the 90s were female. I believe all the rest were male.

    This is out of about 100 who have entered the ICU to date.

    I went back and listened to all the briefings to find demographic info on deaths.

    What is the best way to do that efficiently?

  297. Anonymous[291] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean
    His confusing private life a few years ago was that of a man in his reproductive prime and he lost at least a pound for every year of the 24 year age gap between him and his girlfriend. Losing so much so fast is draining, you take calories from muscle and fat 50/50, and you tend to overshoot. He would have been in a much better position to fight it off with a few extra stable pounds around the waist. 'Ideal' weights are not so good for surviving serious illness. Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38.

    Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38.

    Doesn’t research show that marathon running is damaging to one’s health? Studies have found damaged heart tissue in marathon runners. Perhaps it leaves the lungs more vulnerable as well? There was a recently publicized story about a lawyer in New York City in his 40s who had run marathons but had to be on a ventilator and almost died because of the coronavirus.

  298. @res
    Worthwhile point, but what we really care about is where the primary mass of the distribution is. Which will be right around the sum of the two medians.

    That is also one of the reasons I prefer the methodology of looking at the lockdown to death rate changes timing. It gives a much more direct answer in the real world.

    “That is also one of the reasons I prefer the methodology of looking at the lockdown to death rate changes timing. It gives a much more direct answer in the real world.”

    But that also assumes that the lockdown caused the drop in deaths, which is what we are trying to establish.

    I don’t know how many cases there are that trace from exact moment of infection to death (or recovery, which takes longer than death). There probably aren’t enough to form a statistically valid sample upon, with a verification group. Would bootstrapping be a valid technique here? If we don’t get a large enough sample, what would you advise another to accept as proof of the infection-to-death time?

    • Replies: @res

    “That is also one of the reasons I prefer the methodology of looking at the lockdown to death rate changes timing. It gives a much more direct answer in the real world.”

    But that also assumes that the lockdown caused the drop in deaths, which is what we are trying to establish.
     
    What I am trying to establish is the lag from infection to death. Absent compelling alternative reasons at an appropriate time I think it is reasonable to assume the lockdown causes the change.

    I don’t know how many cases there are that trace from exact moment of infection to death (or recovery, which takes longer than death). There probably aren’t enough to form a statistically valid sample upon, with a verification group. Would bootstrapping be a valid technique here? If we don’t get a large enough sample, what would you advise another to accept as proof of the infection-to-death time?
     
    Incubation period seems fairly well understood, and it should be easy to establish the time between initial symptoms (ask when admitted to the hospital!) and death. Though there is variability in both of course.

    But I still think it is better to try to measure based on the real world lockdowns. Since the underlying question I am trying to answer is "how long does it take for countermeasures to show an effect on deaths?"
  299. @22pp22
    I know the CIA is useless. It has never predicted anything and it is responsible for dozens of lies and false flags. Mossad failed miserably to predict the Yom Kippiur War. So I am not surprised that the "intelligence" community failed to determine how bad this really is.

    But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don't quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!

    I prepared as best I could starting on January 23rd. I tried to warn people and was ignored. During a yelled conversation with two neighbours, it transpired they had forgotten my warnings. I said: "Watch my lips. This is going to be bad." I got the unusual PC smirk for my troubles.

    This is going to upend the world like a major war.

    In NZ we are the most isolated country on earth nas one of the last countries to be affected. We are also one of the most PC. We could have kept the disease out, but government time and attention was devoted instead to new hate-speech laws and partial-birth abortion.

    We are now in lock-down like everyone else.

    Smug PC people do smug PC and nothing else. It is the only thing that occupies their minds.

    New Caledonia and American Samoa were never affected by the Spanish flu. We didn't need to be.

    “But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don’t quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!”

    Bedwetting boomers just did, QED.

    Calm yourself, ninnie.

    • Replies: @22pp22
    I am calm. I made sensible preparations. I wasn't the one emptying the supermarket shelves at the last minute. People, like you, who stress the need for "calm" are just too lazy and clueless to see the obvious. I even laid in building materials so I would have plenty to keep me preoccupied during lock-down.

    If people in NZ hadn't stressed being calm above all things, we wouldn't now have 15% unemployment.

    Wake up, ninnie.

  300. @George Si
    Restrictions should be gradually lifted by Easter. Let two people meet each other. By May 1 -- groups of 10 or less. By June 1 -- groups of 100 or less. Maybe faster than that.

    And in the mean time all the working class people starve to death or kill each other.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "And in the mean time all the working class people starve to death or kill each other."

    There will be food riots. Unemployment offices are swamped, applicants won't get a welfare check for weeks or months, most people live hand-to-mouth without savings.

    These won't be fake riots thrown by good boys who dindu nuffin looking for a 100% discount on flatscreen TVs. These will be normal people without criminal histories bolting out of the local Safeway with all the food they can carry.
  301. @Wilkey
    Steve, this will take you back a ways: ultra-Orthodox Jew Aaron Rubashkin, 93, of the famously corrupt Agriprocessors meatpacking company, has fallen victim to the coronavirus. Couldn't have happened to a better person. I'm sure all of Postville, Iowa is deep in mourning.

    Steve, this will take you back a ways: ultra-Orthodox Jew Aaron Rubashkin, 93, of the famously corrupt Agriprocessors meatpacking company, has fallen victim to the coronavirus. Couldn’t have happened to a better person. I’m sure all of Postville, Iowa is deep in mourning.

    Agree … except this piece of shit made it to 93.

    Postville–a short hour’s drive from my cousin’s farm–is a poster child for the joys of “di-versity” and having your community given the middle man minority treatment.

    Scale up to “nation” and that’s pretty much the American story.

    • Agree: Bubba
  302. @Ron Unz

    Nearly all epidemics follow the Farr’s law bell curve. Deaths in Italy peaked in late March. As of this writing less than 16,000 deaths in Italy. Likely total will be less than 20,000 — just 0.03% of population. Daily reported confirmed case count is declining rapidly.
     
    Unfortunately, I really don't think those Italian totals are correct. The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don't bother testing corpses for the virus, and very large numbers of the victims are apparently dying at home, untested and unhospitalized. So the true body-count may be five times larger:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    The WSJ had a big article saying the same thing a couple of days ago. Incidentally, that huge discrepancy may completely throw off the reliability of Italian data on all sorts of other factors, including the age and health of the victims.

    Governors need to start lifting restrictions on commerce gradually beginning next week.
     
    Well, it's nice to see that the totally insane are properly represented on these comment-threads.

    “The problem is that the tremendous pressure on health workers means they don’t bother testing corpses for the virus”

    Well, you’re in luck because the US is over-counting kung flu deaths. The sacred, holy CDC is encouraging hospitals to attribute any and all deaths during The Duration to kung flu, without testing any body [pun].

    Kinda like how during a heatwave, all deaths are attributed to the heatwave because it’s good for the global climate warming crisis industry.

    All you eighth-grade math wizards may get that exponential death curve you’ve lusted after for a month now thanks to the CDC.

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane
  303. @Sean
    His confusing private life a few years ago was that of a man in his reproductive prime and he lost at least a pound for every year of the 24 year age gap between him and his girlfriend. Losing so much so fast is draining, you take calories from muscle and fat 50/50, and you tend to overshoot. He would have been in a much better position to fight it off with a few extra stable pounds around the waist. 'Ideal' weights are not so good for surviving serious illness. Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38.

    “Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38.”

    Long-distance running is hell on the immune system and prematurely ages you. And it makes you ugly.

    It’s not the lack of fat that put that wop in the ICU – it’s the depleted immune system.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Long-distance running is hell on the immune system
     
    What distance qualifies as a distance that harms the immune system?

    and prematurely ages you.
     
    It does? At what distances?

    And it makes you ugly.
     
    Now you’re just trolling.
  304. @Steve Sailer
    Right. There are two separate processes: getting infected and infected people dying. Most of the evidence suggests that, outside of perhaps Wuhan and northern Italy, most people haven't been infected yet. There's not much reason to think that the people most likely to die from this (the old, the infirm, the fat, etc.) are the most likely to be infected first by Tom Hanks Disease, which tended instead to spread first among the vigorous and popular.

    If the death rate is 1%, then hundreds of thousands in NYC have already been infected. If it’s .1%, then millions have been infected. Some randomized testing would be useful, and maybe we will get that afterwards with antibody blood tests. NYC testing is focused on the symptomatic:
    https://www.aier.org/article/what-does-the-growing-number-of-coronavirus-cases-really-mean/

    If the real death rate from COVID is the .66% (as Imperial College now estimates: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200331/covid-19-death-rate-drops-still-deadly-to-seniors) then at least 630,000 people in NY State have had the disease. If it’s lower at .1%,NYC has approached herd immunity at half the population already infected.

    How can we run an immediate test? Sample size calculator shows <2000 people needed for a 99% confidence interval with 3% margin of error for the 8.5 million residents of the city. We need both tests to determine how many are/were infected.

  305. @ic1000
    A little off-topic: How do people get infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus?

    Documented transmission by fomite (e.g. doorknobs), droplets (6' distancing), and aerosols (out to 20'). So what are the relative importances/frequencies of these modes?

    Here's the 4-hour intercity bus ride that symptomatic "Patient A" took. The person sitting next to him: not infected.
    https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2020/03/11/2367f83c-61fc-11ea-8e9f-2d196083a37c_972x_161511.jpg

    A related question is whether how you get infected affects the course of your illness. Siddhartha Mukherjee in the 3/26/20 New Yorker points to studies suggesting that a high initial viral load (e.g. getting sneezed on by somebody shedding lots of virus) likely leads or more severe disease. In the April 1 NYT (not paywalled), two Princeton academics make the same point.

    So what are the low-hanging fruit, in terms of behaviors? ICU doc David Price emphasizes hand-washing and Purell at the 13:50 mark of this 3/22/20 video. Are gloves necessary? Decontaminating mail?

    It'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the relative risks.

    ic1000, thanks much for those links.

    Both the South China Morning Post story on the bus bugman and the NYT story by the Princeton Chemistry/Genomics profs on viral load were definitely worth reading and reinforced the point i’ve made repeatedly …

    It is stupid to be taking all the very intrusive and meddlesome “shut it down!” measures when we aren’t doing the very simplest thing to wallop airborne transmission–wearing a mask.

    I’ve forward them on to my kids–who all now have some masks AnotherMom sewed along with KN95s from China.

  306. @Anon
    In the Queen's state address on the Corona Virus, she says that the UK does not have a past it can be proud of:

    "The pride in who we are is not part of our past. It defines our present and our future." (See 1:55 of video.)
    https://youtu.be/2klmuggOElE?t=115

    Did I misunderstand what she said? I think not. Elizabeth II has to go. I'm not against the institution of monarchy, just this particular Monarch.

    Did I misunderstand what she said? I think not. Elizabeth II has to go. I’m not against the institution of monarchy, just this particular Monarch.

    Monarchy is embarrassing to every free man.

    Tribal king-ship–where the men in a tribe acknowledge one of them–strong or cool in battle or wise-as their leader is one thing. The parasitism of “nobility” is another.

    Men with self-respect, will fight to chuck this off and take charge of governing themselves.

    • Agree: JMcG
    • Replies: @epebble
    British Monarchy, above all else, is a big money making business for U.K. economy. U.K. doesn't make a lot of valuable stuff to support the population. I think cost-benefit or return on investment skews in favor of keeping this monarch. After this, I am not so sure.
  307. Rob says:
    @Anonymous
    Tom -
    I know. Since I've been shutdown and locked up in my house, I've had more time to pay attention to the assertions made by columnists and commentators here. I catch a lot of that kind of stuff - claims that have absolutely no basis in fact or are extreme exaggerations of the truth. My 80 year old father received a knee replacement operation last summer after a one year wait. The orthopedic surgeon had refused to do it earlier because my father, who was otherwise in great shape, had a small a rotator cuff tear in his shoulder. The ability of a patient to get on their feet using a walker and support their own weight and use the joint is essential to post-operative outcomes. A shoulder issue would have just made this very difficult - not impossible, and the doctor still demurred.

    Up till now I considered myself sympathetic to the whole HBD thing. I' m beginning to question their whole "We have all the answers to the world's most vexing problems. Everything is encoded and predetermined in genes (IQ, disease outcomes, success in life), however, we are being silenced and persecuted by powerful forces enforcing political correctness who exclude us from mainstream discussions".

    This Covid-19 thing came along and their "movement", which claimed to understand the Rosetta Stone on human outcomes, sounded zero alarms about what is possibly the largest public health crisis of our lifetime. Maybe the MSM is justified in being so skeptical about their major assertions.

    What sort of insights from HBD would you expect to apply to coronavirus? Populations haven’t been under moderate to strong selection by corona viruses, so there probably aren’t strong population differences in how people respond to infection. Perhaps climate differences have led to Ace2 expression or allelic differences between populations. We can predict that blacks won’t respond to the lockdown very responsibly, but maybe you don’t need HBD for that. Perhaps HBD has some insights into the way Asian and white nations are responding.

    There’s a big difference between accepting g that population IQ differences are genetic, stable, and important for life outcomes, and being able to figure out whatever it is about SARS-CoV-2 that HBD such a disappointment to you.

    Could you describe in more detail how you expect insights from HBD to help with this?

  308. @Corvinus
    "Suppose by pulling the plug you could save enough dollars to provide medical care to save five infants from premature death, given our scandalously high infant mortality rate. Would you do it?"

    It's very easy to make up these moral dilemma scenarios. How old is the person I am pulling the plug on? Is it a relative or a dear friend? What is their condition? What is their prognosis? And, of course, what is the emotional toll and aftermath of it all?

    But, to answer your question, I would consult with the person and their family, told them about the situation, and then make that decision. Perhaps you find it easier to play God.

    Pray tell, what is the race of the person that I am "pulling the plug on" and the race of the kids? See, to some of the fine posters here, this information is relevant to them and would unfortunately guide their decision. Hopefully, you are not in that camp.

    I don’t find it easier to play God, but philosophy professor with trolley problems sure. The complication in this case is that the people spending the money aren’t necessarily the people paying the money, so the family has less skin in the game. Where it’s private money being spent, I have to agree with your approach. I recall one psych experiment where the professor challenged students to ask people for their seats on the subway, and how hard most students found it to do, so ingrained is the “first come, first served” heuristic.

    The posited scenario is that the person’s chance of survival is near 0, with no age given by the original commenter. Also, in the trolley problem version, there’s no shortage of ventilators, only money to spend in healthcare. I mentioned infants because each represents about 80 years of human life, as you know, while the average ventilated person does not.

    I’d actually prefer to see a change to care to let people know the cost in dollars (trolley) or lives (scarce ventilators) to keep people alive with low prospects. My understanding is a lot of people on ventilators need to be sedated because they find it tortuous. That might help some family members to come to grips with the suffering that excessive measure cause.

    BTW, the artificial trolley problem has its counterpart in the ticking time bomb problem of terrorism and torture. Never cared for that one.

    • Replies: @anon
    I don’t find it easier to play God, but philosophy professor with trolley problems sure.

    This one is easy.

    If you meet a philosophy professor in the street, push him in front of a trolley.
  309. @Hibernian
    I've experienced some tough times medically and also some tough times financially, as have a lot of people. I'm a senior citizen and somewhat vulnerable; I'm also employed and would like to stay that way for a while longer. I think I can see both sides of this. I'd also, if I'm lucky enough to live another 15 years or longer, like to spend those years not observing the utter and complete collapse of Western Civilization. Don't tell me health vs. wealth.

    It’s only stupid vs not stupid. There are no other paradigms here.

    All my businesses are closed so the financial impact is apparent to me.

  310. A major takeaway from that report is ethnicity.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191443/NHS-data-suggests-people-black-minority-backgrounds-vulnerable-coronavirus.html

    Table 1 compares the races of 1966 CV19 people in ICU against around 4,500 in ICU with viral pneumonia between 2017-2019.

    88.8% of the viral pneumonia (VP) patients were white, 64.8% of CV19.
    5.7% of the VP were Asian, 13.8% CV19
    2.7% of the VP were black, 13.6% CV19
    2% of the VP were “Other”, 6.6% CV19
    0.9% of the VP were “Mixed”, 1.2% CV19

  311. Worldometers.info puts UK deaths at 4,934 . Current serious and critical is 1,559. Very small numbers to shut the whole country down for.

  312. @AnotherDad


    Did I misunderstand what she said? I think not. Elizabeth II has to go. I’m not against the institution of monarchy, just this particular Monarch.
     
    Monarchy is embarrassing to every free man.

    Tribal king-ship--where the men in a tribe acknowledge one of them--strong or cool in battle or wise-as their leader is one thing. The parasitism of "nobility" is another.

    Men with self-respect, will fight to chuck this off and take charge of governing themselves.

    British Monarchy, above all else, is a big money making business for U.K. economy. U.K. doesn’t make a lot of valuable stuff to support the population. I think cost-benefit or return on investment skews in favor of keeping this monarch. After this, I am not so sure.

  313. @res


    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.
     
    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.
     
    Right. Which means you are taking a group which might have an expected 90% death rate even with ventilators and making it 100% (assume). So 1/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) would be excess deaths due to lack of ventilator capacity. Whereas a naive analysis would use the death rate for the entire ventilator group (70%) and calculate 3/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) excess deaths.

    I think those are pretty decent guesses, and that means the excess deaths with triage might be 1/3 of what you would think from the naive analysis.

    And for those screaming about death panels (not so many here, but out in the world at large...), that is why you do triage.

    90% is probably low. This morning on the local news they made a big deal about a middle aged guy who had just been discharged from the hospital after 17 days on the ventilator. The reason they made such a big deal is because he was the first one to do so. For people with certain profiles, getting off the ventilator is more like a miracle than a realistic prospect. I don’t know this guy’s exact profile but based on age I don’t think he would have been rejected under a triage system in the first place – he was probably one of the better candidates.

    Triage doesn’t have to be all or nothing. It should vary according to how bad the ventilator shortage is at the moment and some sort of scoring system. Maybe if your score (predicted likelihood of survival) is extremely low (85+ year old Alzheimer’s patient who already has terminal cancer) then they don’t put you on in the first place, which frees up a certain amount of capacity. Then for people with slightly higher scores, they give you a certain time on the ventilator (two weeks to start) and if thinks get worse you cut it back to 1 week and if things get even worse you raise the score a little. But for some people, this is not good enough – unless you can provide ventilators to 100% of the patients 100% of the time you’re a Nazi who is killing for the Dow.

    I think that 3/10ths excess deaths is very high based on what a real world (and realistic – say 50%) ventilator shortage and triage system could accomplish. You would be taking a small group of people with a very short life expectancy to begin with and reducing their chances of survival from 2% to 0%.

    GM and Ford and lots of others are rushing to produce ventilators that will be ready for market in 2 or 3 months. I predict that these ventilators will be put in a warehouse and gather dust and most of them will never be used before they go out of date.

    Cuomo was also proposing (quite rationally) that we should ship ventilators from places that are not hotspots to those that are, both within NY State and nationally. This makes perfect sense because the epidemic isn’t peaking at the same time in all cities. Even at this moment when it is sheer chaos in Brooklyn and Queens, things are peaceful upstate and even more peaceful in Wyoming and there are plenty of ventilators that are not being used. The problem is that most hospitals are not going to be willing to part with their ventilators because they are going to be afraid that they won’t get them back in time (and in working condition) when they really need them.

    This would probably be true some % of the time but not 100% of the time. What is really needed is Federally provided “ventilator insurance” for hospitals backed by a pool of say 10% of the # of lent out ventilators. If your hospital doesn’t get its loaned ventilators back immediately, the Fed gov would provide you with backup loaner ventilators within 48 hours until you do.

    It would have been good if we had something like this planned in advance (just like power companies lend their crews to each other after hurricanes) instead of having Cuomo begging on TV in the middle of the storm. The advantage of joining such a program is that your hospital in turn would be eligible for unlimited loaner ventilators in your moment of need.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @res

    90% is probably low.
     
    Agreed. I try to be conservative in analyses like that. Especially given that there is uncertainty in multiple factors.

    Triage doesn’t have to be all or nothing. It should vary according to how bad the ventilator shortage is at the moment and some sort of scoring system.
     
    Absolutely. But remember that no matter the process there will probably be hard calls at the margins. Even if many of the pairwise decisions are relatively easy. Do you want to be the person that tells a grand/child that their loved one lost out on ICU access on an 85 vs. 84.9 score call? Even if us hard headed analytical bystanders understand that may have only reduced their survival rate from 2% to 0%. Remember that any score regime will have arguable close calls.

    I think that 3/10ths excess deaths is very high based on what a real world (and realistic – say 50%) ventilator shortage and triage system could accomplish. You would be taking a small group of people with a very short life expectancy to begin with and reducing their chances of survival from 2% to 0%.
     
    I'm not sure about very high, but I would agree with high. And supporting your underlying point, remember that the number multiplied by that 3/10ths is people denied ventilators (not everyone). Also remember that 50% was the high end of the overcapacity range by state seen in the model (though local hotspots are a concern). Also see my comment which should be following shortly.

    The problem is that most hospitals are not going to be willing to part with their ventilators because they are going to be afraid that they won’t get them back in time (and in working condition) when they really need them.
     
    This. And I can't say I blame them that much. What might help would be to put hospitals that part with their ventilators at the front of the queue for new ventilators IF they need them (let them get shiny new equipment for being generous). Or something like your proposal.

    It would have been good if we had something like this planned in advance
     
    This is true of so many things in this situation. It is much easier to make good decisions in advance than in moments of panic.

    But this is where our messed up priorities (but the impact on the trans drag queens!) really hurt us. Those priorities stop us from making good decisions in advance and require panic to focus people's minds on what is truly important.
    , @ic1000
    > Triage doesn’t have to be all or nothing. It should vary according to how bad the ventilator shortage is at the moment and some sort of scoring system.

    ELD Biddison et al., "Too Many Patients… A Framework to Guide Statewide Allocation of Scarce Mechanical Ventilation During Disasters." Chest vol. 155, pages 848-854, April 2019.


    Modeling studies suggest that an influenza pandemic similar to that of 1918 would require ICU and mechanical ventilation capacity that is significantly greater than what is available... Here we describe a critical care disaster resource allocation framework developed following a statewide community engagement process in Maryland. It is intended to assist hospitals and public health agencies in their independent and coordinated response to an officially declared catastrophic health emergency in which demand for mechanical ventilators exceeds the capabilities of all surge response efforts and in which there has been an executive order to implement scarce resource allocation procedures.
     
    The scoring scheme is presented as Table 1. From its legend: "Individual scores are assigned for each consideration and then added together to produce a total triage score (minimum 1, maximum 7). Priority is given to those with the lowest total triage scores. In the event that there is a 'tie,' life stage may be considered as a secondary criterion."
  314. @The Alarmist

    Basically, you don’t want to go into the ICU.
     
    Certainly not an NHS ICU.

    So, COVID-19 disproportionately kills fatties when compared to viral pneumonia, which culls more along the lines of a lognormal distribution skewed to the disadvantage of the leaner. In other words, COVID-19 is more inclusive of those normally excluded because of their weight.

    COVID-19 is also much more inclusive, because viral pneumonia skews 88% against caucasians.

    So, do we continue to fight a disease which is actually more inclusive to the ordinary losers in life's lottery?

    Boris Johnson is quite chubby – is this why he may be playing chess with Death right now?

    Johnson would probably try Monopoly, and lose anyway.

  315. @Reg Cæsar

    England’s current population is given as 67,797,568 persons.
     
    No it isn't.

    You've just offended everyone in Ecclefechan, Auchtermuchty, Cwmystwyth and Llanfair­pwllgwyngyll­gogery­chwyrn­drobwll­llan­tysilio­gogo­goch. Not to mention these places:


    https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01581/SIGN_1581022c.jpg

    Walking on that hillside seems a good way to social-distance. But it is outdoors and may now be illegal.

  316. @Smithsonian_6

    My bladder was being pressurized and I was in agony. A nurse tried to massage my genitals to work the clots out
     
    This is the strangest 'letter to Playboy' that I have ever read.

    The erotic literature of COVID just had a new entry.

  317. res says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Right. There are two separate processes: getting infected and infected people dying. Most of the evidence suggests that, outside of perhaps Wuhan and northern Italy, most people haven't been infected yet. There's not much reason to think that the people most likely to die from this (the old, the infirm, the fat, etc.) are the most likely to be infected first by Tom Hanks Disease, which tended instead to spread first among the vigorous and popular.

    Good point. The idea is that given equal exposure (e.g. walking 5.9 feet away from someone infected) the more likely to die people are also more likely to get infected. But you make an important counterpoint. The more vulnerable people (if they are being sensible, which may be a big assumption in the Current Year, or just because they don’t get out) may be less likely to be exposed in the first place.

    But notice how important protecting elder care facilities (as a whole) becomes. I hope they are being diligent about testing staff and making staff limit and trace contacts. I think this is especially important for the lower levels of care (e.g. elder apartment complexes with minimal medical care except as backup) because those people may very well have many years of good life left.

  318. @Erik Sieven
    It doesn't help to list some organs, because the relevant question is how severe the renal, liver etc. disease has to be to increase risk for COVID-19. A big share of the population has medical problems with at least on of the named organs.

    I think we can infer. Severe renal disease would be some level of renal failure. Hepatic disease has to be at least hepatitis. etc.

  319. Doctors raving and disputing,
    Death’s pale army still recruiting
    -Philip Freneau, 1793

  320. res says:
    @Jack D
    90% is probably low. This morning on the local news they made a big deal about a middle aged guy who had just been discharged from the hospital after 17 days on the ventilator. The reason they made such a big deal is because he was the first one to do so. For people with certain profiles, getting off the ventilator is more like a miracle than a realistic prospect. I don't know this guy's exact profile but based on age I don't think he would have been rejected under a triage system in the first place - he was probably one of the better candidates.

    Triage doesn't have to be all or nothing. It should vary according to how bad the ventilator shortage is at the moment and some sort of scoring system. Maybe if your score (predicted likelihood of survival) is extremely low (85+ year old Alzheimer's patient who already has terminal cancer) then they don't put you on in the first place, which frees up a certain amount of capacity. Then for people with slightly higher scores, they give you a certain time on the ventilator (two weeks to start) and if thinks get worse you cut it back to 1 week and if things get even worse you raise the score a little. But for some people, this is not good enough - unless you can provide ventilators to 100% of the patients 100% of the time you're a Nazi who is killing for the Dow.

    I think that 3/10ths excess deaths is very high based on what a real world (and realistic - say 50%) ventilator shortage and triage system could accomplish. You would be taking a small group of people with a very short life expectancy to begin with and reducing their chances of survival from 2% to 0%.

    GM and Ford and lots of others are rushing to produce ventilators that will be ready for market in 2 or 3 months. I predict that these ventilators will be put in a warehouse and gather dust and most of them will never be used before they go out of date.

    Cuomo was also proposing (quite rationally) that we should ship ventilators from places that are not hotspots to those that are, both within NY State and nationally. This makes perfect sense because the epidemic isn't peaking at the same time in all cities. Even at this moment when it is sheer chaos in Brooklyn and Queens, things are peaceful upstate and even more peaceful in Wyoming and there are plenty of ventilators that are not being used. The problem is that most hospitals are not going to be willing to part with their ventilators because they are going to be afraid that they won't get them back in time (and in working condition) when they really need them.

    This would probably be true some % of the time but not 100% of the time. What is really needed is Federally provided "ventilator insurance" for hospitals backed by a pool of say 10% of the # of lent out ventilators. If your hospital doesn't get its loaned ventilators back immediately, the Fed gov would provide you with backup loaner ventilators within 48 hours until you do.

    It would have been good if we had something like this planned in advance (just like power companies lend their crews to each other after hurricanes) instead of having Cuomo begging on TV in the middle of the storm. The advantage of joining such a program is that your hospital in turn would be eligible for unlimited loaner ventilators in your moment of need.

    90% is probably low.

    Agreed. I try to be conservative in analyses like that. Especially given that there is uncertainty in multiple factors.

    Triage doesn’t have to be all or nothing. It should vary according to how bad the ventilator shortage is at the moment and some sort of scoring system.

    Absolutely. But remember that no matter the process there will probably be hard calls at the margins. Even if many of the pairwise decisions are relatively easy. Do you want to be the person that tells a grand/child that their loved one lost out on ICU access on an 85 vs. 84.9 score call? Even if us hard headed analytical bystanders understand that may have only reduced their survival rate from 2% to 0%. Remember that any score regime will have arguable close calls.

    I think that 3/10ths excess deaths is very high based on what a real world (and realistic – say 50%) ventilator shortage and triage system could accomplish. You would be taking a small group of people with a very short life expectancy to begin with and reducing their chances of survival from 2% to 0%.

    I’m not sure about very high, but I would agree with high. And supporting your underlying point, remember that the number multiplied by that 3/10ths is people denied ventilators (not everyone). Also remember that 50% was the high end of the overcapacity range by state seen in the model (though local hotspots are a concern). Also see my comment which should be following shortly.

    The problem is that most hospitals are not going to be willing to part with their ventilators because they are going to be afraid that they won’t get them back in time (and in working condition) when they really need them.

    This. And I can’t say I blame them that much. What might help would be to put hospitals that part with their ventilators at the front of the queue for new ventilators IF they need them (let them get shiny new equipment for being generous). Or something like your proposal.

    It would have been good if we had something like this planned in advance

    This is true of so many things in this situation. It is much easier to make good decisions in advance than in moments of panic.

    But this is where our messed up priorities (but the impact on the trans drag queens!) really hurt us. Those priorities stop us from making good decisions in advance and require panic to focus people’s minds on what is truly important.

  321. @Sean
    Johnson's ten days fever equals a real risk of developing pneumonia. He apparently had not been seen by a doctor since he was diagnosed, which sounds especially foolhardy considering his responsibilities.

    When he spoke most recently, he was gasping for air every few words. He is 55 and doesn’t look fit as a fiddle. Covid has felled stronger men.

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
    News flash:


    his condition worsened this afternoon, and he is now in intensive care.

    , @Jim Don Bob
    Get well, Boris. Britain needs you.
  322. res says:
    @res


    Also, if triage for ventilator access is effective then the expected death rate with ventilator should be even higher than that for those denied access.
     
    But as I envision it the way triage works in this situation is that the best prospects among the critically ill get the ventilators while the others go into the tents and more-or-less get compassionate care with morphine and a soothing audio of waves crashing ashore playing in the background.
     
    Right. Which means you are taking a group which might have an expected 90% death rate even with ventilators and making it 100% (assume). So 1/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) would be excess deaths due to lack of ventilator capacity. Whereas a naive analysis would use the death rate for the entire ventilator group (70%) and calculate 3/10 x (# of people denied ventilators) excess deaths.

    I think those are pretty decent guesses, and that means the excess deaths with triage might be 1/3 of what you would think from the naive analysis.

    And for those screaming about death panels (not so many here, but out in the world at large...), that is why you do triage.

    I was thinking about this some more, and realized I left another factor out of the analysis. Under a triage system (done well, not if the criteria are “he’s a senator” or “he gave a lot of money to the hospital”) the survival rate of the ICU should increase because fewer of the highest risk patients are being admitted to it.

    I don’t know a good way to derive numerical assumptions for this so I won’t do a further analysis, but just note the effect. And also note that if we assume the ICU helps more than it harms (a reasonable statistical assumption IMHO, though there may be pathological individual cases, e.g. an iatrogenic acquired infection) then the overall survival rate will always be worse than the rate expected with no capacity limitation.

  323. @keypusher
    The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill. He lacks self control.

    Know how I know you don't know anything about Winston Churchill?

    He couldn’t hold on to money, for one thing. He only experienced financial stability for the first time at the end of WW2.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    No More Champagne: Churchill and His Money; by David Lough is an excellent book on this subject. Eye opening.
  324. anon[127] • Disclaimer says:
    @danand
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8186287/Monash-University-scientists-anti-parasite-Ivermectin-kill-COVID-19-cells-two-days.html

    #674, from a Daily Mail article on the 3rd:

    Coronavirus breakthrough as scientists discover a drug used to treat HEAD LICE can kill COVID-19 cells.

    Researchers at Monash University found Ivermectin can kills COVID-19 cells
    The anti-parasite drug killed off the cells within two days and is widely available
    Scientists are moving towards human trials but expect it to be at least a month
    Ivermectin has also been found to work against HIV, influenza and Zika virus”
     
    https://flic.kr/p/2iMuoiH

    Makes you strong like horse, maybe even Ox! Available @ Amazon (I’m ordering before the run, and $2K price increase.)

    Thanks for the tip #674.

    Do you know there is a difference between “in vitro” and “in vivo”?
    “In vitro” means “in a Petri dish”.
    “In vivo” means “in a living organism”.

    Plenty of compounds cure disease in vitro only to fail in vivo, or even produce bad side effects in vivo.

    Read the article you linked to. We have zero human testing, not even animal testing yet.

    Don’t be stupid.

  325. @Jack D
    90% is probably low. This morning on the local news they made a big deal about a middle aged guy who had just been discharged from the hospital after 17 days on the ventilator. The reason they made such a big deal is because he was the first one to do so. For people with certain profiles, getting off the ventilator is more like a miracle than a realistic prospect. I don't know this guy's exact profile but based on age I don't think he would have been rejected under a triage system in the first place - he was probably one of the better candidates.

    Triage doesn't have to be all or nothing. It should vary according to how bad the ventilator shortage is at the moment and some sort of scoring system. Maybe if your score (predicted likelihood of survival) is extremely low (85+ year old Alzheimer's patient who already has terminal cancer) then they don't put you on in the first place, which frees up a certain amount of capacity. Then for people with slightly higher scores, they give you a certain time on the ventilator (two weeks to start) and if thinks get worse you cut it back to 1 week and if things get even worse you raise the score a little. But for some people, this is not good enough - unless you can provide ventilators to 100% of the patients 100% of the time you're a Nazi who is killing for the Dow.

    I think that 3/10ths excess deaths is very high based on what a real world (and realistic - say 50%) ventilator shortage and triage system could accomplish. You would be taking a small group of people with a very short life expectancy to begin with and reducing their chances of survival from 2% to 0%.

    GM and Ford and lots of others are rushing to produce ventilators that will be ready for market in 2 or 3 months. I predict that these ventilators will be put in a warehouse and gather dust and most of them will never be used before they go out of date.

    Cuomo was also proposing (quite rationally) that we should ship ventilators from places that are not hotspots to those that are, both within NY State and nationally. This makes perfect sense because the epidemic isn't peaking at the same time in all cities. Even at this moment when it is sheer chaos in Brooklyn and Queens, things are peaceful upstate and even more peaceful in Wyoming and there are plenty of ventilators that are not being used. The problem is that most hospitals are not going to be willing to part with their ventilators because they are going to be afraid that they won't get them back in time (and in working condition) when they really need them.

    This would probably be true some % of the time but not 100% of the time. What is really needed is Federally provided "ventilator insurance" for hospitals backed by a pool of say 10% of the # of lent out ventilators. If your hospital doesn't get its loaned ventilators back immediately, the Fed gov would provide you with backup loaner ventilators within 48 hours until you do.

    It would have been good if we had something like this planned in advance (just like power companies lend their crews to each other after hurricanes) instead of having Cuomo begging on TV in the middle of the storm. The advantage of joining such a program is that your hospital in turn would be eligible for unlimited loaner ventilators in your moment of need.

    > Triage doesn’t have to be all or nothing. It should vary according to how bad the ventilator shortage is at the moment and some sort of scoring system.

    ELD Biddison et al., “Too Many Patients… A Framework to Guide Statewide Allocation of Scarce Mechanical Ventilation During Disasters.” Chest vol. 155, pages 848-854, April 2019.

    Modeling studies suggest that an influenza pandemic similar to that of 1918 would require ICU and mechanical ventilation capacity that is significantly greater than what is available… Here we describe a critical care disaster resource allocation framework developed following a statewide community engagement process in Maryland. It is intended to assist hospitals and public health agencies in their independent and coordinated response to an officially declared catastrophic health emergency in which demand for mechanical ventilators exceeds the capabilities of all surge response efforts and in which there has been an executive order to implement scarce resource allocation procedures.

    The scoring scheme is presented as Table 1. From its legend: “Individual scores are assigned for each consideration and then added together to produce a total triage score (minimum 1, maximum 7). Priority is given to those with the lowest total triage scores. In the event that there is a ‘tie,’ life stage may be considered as a secondary criterion.”

    • Thanks: res
  326. @JimDandy
    There are about 47,000 confirmed cases in England. So far 29 people under the age of 50 have died. Some significant percentage of those 29 people had co-morbidities. How many people under the age of 50 with no co-morbidities have died of this virus in England?

    What percentage of the 47,000 are under the age of 50 with no co-morbidities? If you are English, under the age of 50, with no co-morbidities, you have a ___% chance of dying from it?

    Also, it was wrong of people to assume that Steve smoked when they heard that he had cancer, but I'm going to go ahead and assume that some of the English people under 50 who died were heavy smokers. I don't think "heavy smoker" is considered a co-morbidity, but it might as well be.

    Yeah, very much so. I had a feeling the black inner cities were going to get hit hard. So much co-morbidity in tightly packed areas. That infamous skid row tent city of homeless in LA seems ripe for disaster.

  327. @Rob McX
    He couldn't hold on to money, for one thing. He only experienced financial stability for the first time at the end of WW2.

    No More Champagne: Churchill and His Money; by David Lough is an excellent book on this subject. Eye opening.

    • Thanks: MEH 0910
    • Replies: @Rob McX
    I read it a while back. It has some amazing insights into Churchill's psyche.
  328. @TomSchmidt
    One commentator whose tagline is "the situation is hopeless, but it's not serious" once pondered: where did the Nazis find all the people who volunteered to become camp guards.

    "And I mind MORE , all of the penisless masses who support, encourage and beg for more such police enforcements."

    Well, you see now.

    …where did the Nazis find all the people who volunteered to become camp guards.

    Better that than the alternative, the Eastern Front. In Ira Gershwin’s words,

  329. @TomSchmidt
    One commentator whose tagline is "the situation is hopeless, but it's not serious" once pondered: where did the Nazis find all the people who volunteered to become camp guards.

    "And I mind MORE , all of the penisless masses who support, encourage and beg for more such police enforcements."

    Well, you see now.

    At least from summer 1941 onwards, finding a job that did not involve fighting anybody armed, and especially not the Red Army Of The Workers And Peasants, was one major motivation for being a camp guard.

  330. @Semperluctor
    Why bother suing? China holds 2 trillion in Treasury bills/notes/bonds. These purchases were likely all direct from the Treasury, the holdings are book entries in a computer. Puff, magically all of the Chinese holdings are cancelled, while the Treasuries held by other creditors are honored. This would not affect the credit rating, nor the ability of the US to borrow one iota, as this would not be seen as a debtor’s default. China has caused this county at least 2 trillion dolllars worth of harm, so we cancel their bond holdings. This for sure is being discussed at high levels, just maybe not 2 trillion dollars worth.

    Puff, magically all of the Chinese holdings are cancelled, while the Treasuries held by other creditors are honored. This would not affect the credit rating, nor the ability of the US to borrow one iota, as this would not be seen as a debtor’s default.

    Plenty of competition, but this ranks high among the stupidest things I’ve read on Unz.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Plenty of competition, but this ranks high among the stupidest things I’ve read on Unz.
     
    What is stupid about it?
  331. @Johann Ricke

    But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don’t quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!
     
    There's a real monkey see, monkey do aspect to this comparison. Since when have we followed Communist China's lead on anything? In the 1950's, Mao Zedong decided to build a steel plant in every backyard, by melting down iron implements of all kinds. Should Eisenhower have followed his example?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

    He initiated the Cultural Revolution in the late 60's. I can't imagine anyone would have suggested that LBJ ape this move:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution

    Then there was Deng Xiaoping's 1 child policy in the late 70's. No one seems to have considered it a particularly good idea, then or now - at least not enough to follow in Deng's footsteps:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

    Bottom line is that Chinese leaders do things that are strange to foreign eyes for reasons that are not only opaque to outsiders, but also frequently disastrous for the Chinese population. They are not exemplars in any shape or form, except in a negative way.

    I have not bothered to check back but my recollection is that until about six weeks ago much of the Unz commentariat consoled themselves with the thought that COVID was an East Asian thing. Even though it was already hitting the Iranians hard. A combination of a preoccupation with racial and ethnic genetics and “it can’t happen here”.
    Could it be that Western leaders were just as dismissive of something preoccupying the Chinese?

  332. @theMann
    England's current population is given as 67,797,568 persons. If the figure of 2249 persons in ICU at the moment is for all of England, then the rate of infection for you to be sick enough to end up in ICU is .0000331723 %. Wow, the second coming of the Black Death. Not to mention that the death rate SHOULD be 0%, since we know how to cure this illness.

    Or alternately, you could try an ounce of prevention, eating something high in Vitamin C while sitting in front of a sun lamp. (or the actual Sun where I live, not an option yet everywhere.)

    But clearly, it makes much more sense for the entire world to collectively shit their pants while destroying their Economies over an illness of very low lethality, with a known set of cures, and a known methodology for prevention.


    Men take responsibility for their actions, and their health. So in all seriousness:

    Are we men, or are we Lab Rats?

    You’re off by a factor of 100. It’s .0000331723 (or .00331723%), not .0000331723%.

    Also, the population figure is for all of the UK.

  333. Johnson moved to intensive care though not on a ventilator according to Channel 4. “Precautionary”. Dominic Raab deputising.

  334. @Steve Sailer
    Boris Johnson is not a marathoner, but he did win a historic General Election less than 4 months ago. He is in his prime.

    He’s now in intensive care.

    Not on a ventilator – yet – but he’s in trouble.

  335. @TomSchmidt
    I don't find it easier to play God, but philosophy professor with trolley problems sure. The complication in this case is that the people spending the money aren't necessarily the people paying the money, so the family has less skin in the game. Where it's private money being spent, I have to agree with your approach. I recall one psych experiment where the professor challenged students to ask people for their seats on the subway, and how hard most students found it to do, so ingrained is the "first come, first served" heuristic.

    The posited scenario is that the person's chance of survival is near 0, with no age given by the original commenter. Also, in the trolley problem version, there's no shortage of ventilators, only money to spend in healthcare. I mentioned infants because each represents about 80 years of human life, as you know, while the average ventilated person does not.

    I'd actually prefer to see a change to care to let people know the cost in dollars (trolley) or lives (scarce ventilators) to keep people alive with low prospects. My understanding is a lot of people on ventilators need to be sedated because they find it tortuous. That might help some family members to come to grips with the suffering that excessive measure cause.

    BTW, the artificial trolley problem has its counterpart in the ticking time bomb problem of terrorism and torture. Never cared for that one.

    I don’t find it easier to play God, but philosophy professor with trolley problems sure.

    This one is easy.

    If you meet a philosophy professor in the street, push him in front of a trolley.

    • LOL: TomSchmidt
  336. @Steve Sailer
    Boris Johnson is not a marathoner, but he did win a historic General Election less than 4 months ago. He is in his prime.

    Fat is mainly immune cells, that is why fat people have generalised systemic inflammation. Johnson liked a drink or three. I have been told the Glasgow ICUs are full of men in their 40s and 50s with COVID-19. The liver is key to immune response and Scots have the highest rate of cirrhosis in the world, Sugar plus alcohol.

    Anyway, Boris Johnson is now in intensive care.

  337. @anon
    When he spoke most recently, he was gasping for air every few words. He is 55 and doesn't look fit as a fiddle. Covid has felled stronger men.

    News flash:

    his condition worsened this afternoon, and he is now in intensive care.

    • Replies: @anon
    Yep; Some nasties are already promoting #BOREXIT
  338. @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/hbdchick/status/1246971631060357131

    hbd chick Retweeted:

    • Replies: @Sean
    If all else fails they are prepared to use what would be the ultimate shock therapy for him: sex with a woman over 50 years old.
    , @MEH 0910
    hbd chick Retweeted:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1247919761033515009
  339. @anon
    When he spoke most recently, he was gasping for air every few words. He is 55 and doesn't look fit as a fiddle. Covid has felled stronger men.

    Get well, Boris. Britain needs you.

  340. @MEH 0910
    hbd chick Retweeted:
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1247247671049551873
    https://twitter.com/RealYeyoZa/status/1247245138725941249

    If all else fails they are prepared to use what would be the ultimate shock therapy for him: sex with a woman over 50 years old.

  341. @J.Ross
    And in the mean time all the working class people starve to death or kill each other.

    “And in the mean time all the working class people starve to death or kill each other.”

    There will be food riots. Unemployment offices are swamped, applicants won’t get a welfare check for weeks or months, most people live hand-to-mouth without savings.

    These won’t be fake riots thrown by good boys who dindu nuffin looking for a 100% discount on flatscreen TVs. These will be normal people without criminal histories bolting out of the local Safeway with all the food they can carry.

  342. @JMcG
    No More Champagne: Churchill and His Money; by David Lough is an excellent book on this subject. Eye opening.

    I read it a while back. It has some amazing insights into Churchill’s psyche.

  343. hbd chick Retweeted:

  344. @Charon
    Makes sense to me. What'll the Chinese do, cut off trade? Excellent.

    People are demanding debt jubilees for all and sundry special interests. This would be relief for the entire nation.

    Yeah yeah there'll be knock-on effects, but we're a big country with a big economy. We can take it.

    ‘People are demanding debt jubilees for all and sundry special interests. This would be relief for the entire nation.

    Yeah yeah there’ll be knock-on effects, but we’re a big country with a big economy. We can take it.’

    Guess that would make me kind of a schmuck for just paying cash for my house and not having any credit card debt, huh?

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    You're in a much better position anyway but mathematically where is the money supposed to come from when work itself has been forbidden? These aren't people who are choosing to not pay their debts, there's no way the debts can be paid.
    , @Charon
    Yep. That's exactly how I felt in 2009 when I essentially paid off my neighbor's mortgage for him. So he could sell at a profit instead of a loss, and retire to Florida.
  345. @TomSchmidt
    Some worthwhile graphs comparing initiation of lockdown versus deaths are here:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/when-will-coronavirus-lockdowns-be-lifted-here-are-one-banks-estimates

    Hubei has that nice curve that screams fake data, but it does serve as a useful backdrop.

    Thanks. Hard to pull conclusions from that AFAICT. For most countries there are too many different measures at different times. I also think finer granularity locations (e.g. US states, or even cities) are more likely to give good timing estimates given they experience more uniform countermeasures and are more synchronized in overall place in the epidemic progression.

  346. @Anonymous
    Well - what do you know Jack D. As Ron Unz has pointed out, Covid-19 isn't global warming. We wont have to wait 30 years to figure out who is right and who is wrong.

    Boris Johnson, the 55 year old Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, was just admitted to the hospital 10 days after testing positive for coronavirus and experiencing minor symptoms. Yes - the guy doesn't look like a triathlete. However, all that really means is that he looks very much like the average 50+ male I encounter on a daily basis. Such males reasonably expect to live well into their 70s even without access to the quality of medical facilities and care that the leader of one of the most important countries in the world enjoys.

    Hopefully, he'll be one of the 50%+ that leaves the hospital on his own two feet. However, neither one of us if we were totally honest, would bet their 401k on it. That was the point of my post - the randomness of who this thing strikes hard. This is driving everyone's fear.

    the randomness of who this thing strikes hard. This is driving everyone’s fear.

    It’s not really random in any true sense. It’s random in the way lightning strikes are random but people who are out on the golf course and who take refuge under tall trees get hit a lot more than other people do. 55 year olds die of Wuhan Virus a LOT more than 15 year olds. People who are overweight and maybe diabetic die of it a lot more than those who are not overweight. Etc. This is probably equally true of seasonal flu but seasonal flu has a mortality of maybe .1% total so we don’t notice it as much.

    Part of the problem is, as someone else said, there are a lot of people who are, OTOH not 87 and in the memory ward of a nursing home but OTOH are not 22 and in prime athletic shape either. To say that this doesn’t harm people who are in good health is not that reassuring because there are a lot of people nowadays who are not in perfect health but who (up until now) were being kept alive for a long time anyway due to modern medicine.

    Johnson, unfortunately , seems to have taken a turn for the worse and is now in intensive care.

  347. @TomSchmidt
    "That is also one of the reasons I prefer the methodology of looking at the lockdown to death rate changes timing. It gives a much more direct answer in the real world."

    But that also assumes that the lockdown caused the drop in deaths, which is what we are trying to establish.

    I don't know how many cases there are that trace from exact moment of infection to death (or recovery, which takes longer than death). There probably aren't enough to form a statistically valid sample upon, with a verification group. Would bootstrapping be a valid technique here? If we don't get a large enough sample, what would you advise another to accept as proof of the infection-to-death time?

    “That is also one of the reasons I prefer the methodology of looking at the lockdown to death rate changes timing. It gives a much more direct answer in the real world.”

    But that also assumes that the lockdown caused the drop in deaths, which is what we are trying to establish.

    What I am trying to establish is the lag from infection to death. Absent compelling alternative reasons at an appropriate time I think it is reasonable to assume the lockdown causes the change.

    I don’t know how many cases there are that trace from exact moment of infection to death (or recovery, which takes longer than death). There probably aren’t enough to form a statistically valid sample upon, with a verification group. Would bootstrapping be a valid technique here? If we don’t get a large enough sample, what would you advise another to accept as proof of the infection-to-death time?

    Incubation period seems fairly well understood, and it should be easy to establish the time between initial symptoms (ask when admitted to the hospital!) and death. Though there is variability in both of course.

    But I still think it is better to try to measure based on the real world lockdowns. Since the underlying question I am trying to answer is “how long does it take for countermeasures to show an effect on deaths?”

  348. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "But this is bad. The CCP was really scared by this, and we chose to sit on the sidelines and smirk rather than prepare. You don’t quarantine seven hundred million people for the flu!"

    Bedwetting boomers just did, QED.

    Calm yourself, ninnie.

    I am calm. I made sensible preparations. I wasn’t the one emptying the supermarket shelves at the last minute. People, like you, who stress the need for “calm” are just too lazy and clueless to see the obvious. I even laid in building materials so I would have plenty to keep me preoccupied during lock-down.

    If people in NZ hadn’t stressed being calm above all things, we wouldn’t now have 15% unemployment.

    Wake up, ninnie.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "I am calm. I made sensible preparations. I wasn’t the one emptying the supermarket shelves at the last minute."

    Me neither. My supermarkets are filled with everything I want and need, I shop leisurely every three or four days. I don't participate in hoaxes.
  349. @Old Palo Altan
    News flash:


    his condition worsened this afternoon, and he is now in intensive care.

    Yep; Some nasties are already promoting #BOREXIT

  350. @vhrm
    Are you sure? I'm not finding anything an the web about this. (i started looking because i was incensed that i hadn't heard that aspect though I'd heard about his death several times already.)

    completely sure.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    Adam, of Fountains of Wayne, had stage 4 pancreatic cancer. His case has been hyped by the craven media, when he was actually, on the verge of dying anytime. It just irritates me that the public is not aware that he was dying of cancer for a long time. No one survives pancreatic cancer – don’t get tattoos!

     

    I really can't find any mention in google that Adam Schlesinger or anyone associated with Fountains of Wayne had cancer. May i ask how you know this?
    It's strange that it's not showing up anywhere on these rememberences or even in articles from before coronavirus times.

    Is it possible you're thinking of Adam Yauch of the Beastie Boys who died of cancer in 2012? (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Yauch)
  351. @Colin Wright
    'People are demanding debt jubilees for all and sundry special interests. This would be relief for the entire nation.

    'Yeah yeah there’ll be knock-on effects, but we’re a big country with a big economy. We can take it.'

    Guess that would make me kind of a schmuck for just paying cash for my house and not having any credit card debt, huh?

    You’re in a much better position anyway but mathematically where is the money supposed to come from when work itself has been forbidden? These aren’t people who are choosing to not pay their debts, there’s no way the debts can be paid.

  352. Fortuna should be treated like a woman: grabbed and violently handled according to Machiavelli, and he said Cesare Borgia epitomised this. Yet Borgia lamented he had planned and found a remedy for everything once his father passed away, except that he never thought that [at the crucial moment] he himself would also be on the point of dying. Truly great men do not drink.

    • Replies: @Bubba

    Truly great men do not drink.
     
    Please name one.
  353. @Lagertha
    completely sure.

    Adam, of Fountains of Wayne, had stage 4 pancreatic cancer. His case has been hyped by the craven media, when he was actually, on the verge of dying anytime. It just irritates me that the public is not aware that he was dying of cancer for a long time. No one survives pancreatic cancer – don’t get tattoos!

    I really can’t find any mention in google that Adam Schlesinger or anyone associated with Fountains of Wayne had cancer. May i ask how you know this?
    It’s strange that it’s not showing up anywhere on these rememberences or even in articles from before coronavirus times.

    Is it possible you’re thinking of Adam Yauch of the Beastie Boys who died of cancer in 2012? (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Yauch)

    • Replies: @Bubba
    Old news, pancreatic cancer coupled with the Wuhan Flu (Wu-Flu) ... he's dead.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/entertainment/adam-schlesinger-dead/index.html

    , @Lagertha
    He had stage 4 pancreatic cancer, and has been ailing for months before contracting Covid.
    , @Lagertha
    I knew about Adam S's pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic cancer gives someone almost a year, but the final months are really bad. Pancreatic cancer is a very quick cancer, and it can appear out of nowhere. And, towards the end, victims look horrible; all discolored and wretchedly thin...it is the most awful cancer, and the suffering is huge - catching the Covid bug made his death less painful.
  354. @Sean
    Fortuna should be treated like a woman: grabbed and violently handled according to Machiavelli, and he said Cesare Borgia epitomised this. Yet Borgia lamented he had planned and found a remedy for everything once his father passed away, except that he never thought that [at the crucial moment] he himself would also be on the point of dying. Truly great men do not drink.

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ce060aff51efbd88ae4466e285ac4955757e246c/0_0_2400_1440/master/2400.jpg?width=1125&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=44b3b78f35c313382ff80e2f471f7f4f

    Truly great men do not drink.

    Please name one.

  355. @vhrm

    Adam, of Fountains of Wayne, had stage 4 pancreatic cancer. His case has been hyped by the craven media, when he was actually, on the verge of dying anytime. It just irritates me that the public is not aware that he was dying of cancer for a long time. No one survives pancreatic cancer – don’t get tattoos!

     

    I really can't find any mention in google that Adam Schlesinger or anyone associated with Fountains of Wayne had cancer. May i ask how you know this?
    It's strange that it's not showing up anywhere on these rememberences or even in articles from before coronavirus times.

    Is it possible you're thinking of Adam Yauch of the Beastie Boys who died of cancer in 2012? (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Yauch)

    Old news, pancreatic cancer coupled with the Wuhan Flu (Wu-Flu) … he’s dead.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/entertainment/adam-schlesinger-dead/index.html

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I looked up pancreatic cancer and Adam Schlesinger and found lots of other musicians with pancreatic cancer, but not him.
  356. @Bubba
    Old news, pancreatic cancer coupled with the Wuhan Flu (Wu-Flu) ... he's dead.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/entertainment/adam-schlesinger-dead/index.html

    I looked up pancreatic cancer and Adam Schlesinger and found lots of other musicians with pancreatic cancer, but not him.

  357. Avoid going to hospital, period. Greater risk of exposure to drug resistant bacteria, viruses, and (the most common killer) preventable medical error.

    How many patients have been killed by medical errors? How many by secondary issues exacerbated by stays in a hospital setting?

    • Agree: Charon
  358. @Sean

    ... since they are blameless, that means they will never die.
     
    Johnson was far overweight until the other year.

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/126/750x445/1072899.jpg

    Never get fat, it can come back off, but the damage is lasting. The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill. He lacks self control.

    The man is more Billy Bunter than Churchill.

    There’s been only one Billy Bunter in British politics, and he is both Billy Bunter and Churchill.

    Winston Churchill’s grandson, Nicholas (Bunter) Soames.

  359. @Colin Wright
    'People are demanding debt jubilees for all and sundry special interests. This would be relief for the entire nation.

    'Yeah yeah there’ll be knock-on effects, but we’re a big country with a big economy. We can take it.'

    Guess that would make me kind of a schmuck for just paying cash for my house and not having any credit card debt, huh?

    Yep. That’s exactly how I felt in 2009 when I essentially paid off my neighbor’s mortgage for him. So he could sell at a profit instead of a loss, and retire to Florida.

  360. @keypusher
    Steve, the comorbidities they list are super extreme that it’s almost impossible to determine what “healthy” means in this report’s context. Here are the “very severe comorbidities” that they listed:

    Who gives a damn, since that is only 7% of the sample? And we do have some idea of what healthy means in the report's context, since 1,899 of the sample (the other 93%) are able to live without assistance in daily activities.

    Anecdote department: the guy at 0:05, 0:13 etc in this video (Danny Burstein) just got off a ventilator. He is, or was, in great shape and yeah, he's straight.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd7r8sMv70E

    90% of the people in NYC dying of corona are 65 or older. And since everyone that age has something wrong with them, I'm sure they all have a "co-morbidity" or two. But a lot of healthy people are getting very, very sick. Deal with it, stop lying to yourself about it.

    It's funny, Steve mentions the anecdote about people finding out he had cancer, and being cast down when they were told he didn't smoke. It gets borne out in every single one of these threads.

    As of early April, 18% of NYC corona deaths were in patients under 60, 36% under 70.

  361. @22pp22
    I am calm. I made sensible preparations. I wasn't the one emptying the supermarket shelves at the last minute. People, like you, who stress the need for "calm" are just too lazy and clueless to see the obvious. I even laid in building materials so I would have plenty to keep me preoccupied during lock-down.

    If people in NZ hadn't stressed being calm above all things, we wouldn't now have 15% unemployment.

    Wake up, ninnie.

    “I am calm. I made sensible preparations. I wasn’t the one emptying the supermarket shelves at the last minute.”

    Me neither. My supermarkets are filled with everything I want and need, I shop leisurely every three or four days. I don’t participate in hoaxes.

  362. Anonymous[332] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Mattia the Italian coronavirus super-spreader literally was a marathon runner and ended up on life support despite being only 38."

    Long-distance running is hell on the immune system and prematurely ages you. And it makes you ugly.

    It's not the lack of fat that put that wop in the ICU - it's the depleted immune system.

    Long-distance running is hell on the immune system

    What distance qualifies as a distance that harms the immune system?

    and prematurely ages you.

    It does? At what distances?

    And it makes you ugly.

    Now you’re just trolling.

  363. Anonymous[332] • Disclaimer says:
    @Keypusher

    Puff, magically all of the Chinese holdings are cancelled, while the Treasuries held by other creditors are honored. This would not affect the credit rating, nor the ability of the US to borrow one iota, as this would not be seen as a debtor’s default.
     
    Plenty of competition, but this ranks high among the stupidest things I’ve read on Unz.

    Plenty of competition, but this ranks high among the stupidest things I’ve read on Unz.

    What is stupid about it?

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke


    Plenty of competition, but this ranks high among the stupidest things I’ve read on Unz.

     

    What is stupid about it?

     

    There is no magic to this. Stop paying your credit card bills to one company over some dispute or other. See if your interest rate for other adjustable rate credit lines change. Welsh on your mortgage payments because you think the bank charged you too many points at closing. See if that affects your credit rating.

    Nobody cares about your rationalizations for debt defaults. All they want to see is a consistent record of interest and principal payments, come hell or high water. Creditworthiness isn't just about ability to pay - it's about willingness (and perhaps determination) to pay. A credit that picks one excuse for not paying can just as easily pick another. What lenders want to be certain of isn't that they'll become rich off debt, since they don't participate in the borrower's profit off his business ventures. It's that they will get their principal back with a bit of interest to account for the time value of money and borrower-specific risk. A borrower that welshes not only on interest but principal is taking that borrower-specific risk to the moon.
  364. @MEH 0910
    hbd chick Retweeted:
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1247247671049551873
    https://twitter.com/RealYeyoZa/status/1247245138725941249

    hbd chick Retweeted:

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1248262542843097088
  365. @vhrm

    Adam, of Fountains of Wayne, had stage 4 pancreatic cancer. His case has been hyped by the craven media, when he was actually, on the verge of dying anytime. It just irritates me that the public is not aware that he was dying of cancer for a long time. No one survives pancreatic cancer – don’t get tattoos!

     

    I really can't find any mention in google that Adam Schlesinger or anyone associated with Fountains of Wayne had cancer. May i ask how you know this?
    It's strange that it's not showing up anywhere on these rememberences or even in articles from before coronavirus times.

    Is it possible you're thinking of Adam Yauch of the Beastie Boys who died of cancer in 2012? (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Yauch)

    He had stage 4 pancreatic cancer, and has been ailing for months before contracting Covid.

  366. @vhrm

    Adam, of Fountains of Wayne, had stage 4 pancreatic cancer. His case has been hyped by the craven media, when he was actually, on the verge of dying anytime. It just irritates me that the public is not aware that he was dying of cancer for a long time. No one survives pancreatic cancer – don’t get tattoos!

     

    I really can't find any mention in google that Adam Schlesinger or anyone associated with Fountains of Wayne had cancer. May i ask how you know this?
    It's strange that it's not showing up anywhere on these rememberences or even in articles from before coronavirus times.

    Is it possible you're thinking of Adam Yauch of the Beastie Boys who died of cancer in 2012? (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Yauch)

    I knew about Adam S’s pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic cancer gives someone almost a year, but the final months are really bad. Pancreatic cancer is a very quick cancer, and it can appear out of nowhere. And, towards the end, victims look horrible; all discolored and wretchedly thin…it is the most awful cancer, and the suffering is huge – catching the Covid bug made his death less painful.

  367. @Reg Cæsar

    And, sheesh, somehow women shag/marry him and he keeps having children! He really upsets men (mostly) because he defies logic and data points…all that stuff.
     
    Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as nothing on Bernie.

    No, not that Bernie. The much older one.


    Apropos of nothing:


    https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/enhanced/webdr02/2013/4/12/13/enhanced-buzz-17889-1365786077-4.jpg?downsize=700%3A%2A&output-quality=auto&output-format=auto

    That Bernie at least is good-looking even if he is in his 80’s!

  368. @Anonymous

    Plenty of competition, but this ranks high among the stupidest things I’ve read on Unz.
     
    What is stupid about it?

    Plenty of competition, but this ranks high among the stupidest things I’ve read on Unz.

    What is stupid about it?

    There is no magic to this. Stop paying your credit card bills to one company over some dispute or other. See if your interest rate for other adjustable rate credit lines change. Welsh on your mortgage payments because you think the bank charged you too many points at closing. See if that affects your credit rating.

    Nobody cares about your rationalizations for debt defaults. All they want to see is a consistent record of interest and principal payments, come hell or high water. Creditworthiness isn’t just about ability to pay – it’s about willingness (and perhaps determination) to pay. A credit that picks one excuse for not paying can just as easily pick another. What lenders want to be certain of isn’t that they’ll become rich off debt, since they don’t participate in the borrower’s profit off his business ventures. It’s that they will get their principal back with a bit of interest to account for the time value of money and borrower-specific risk. A borrower that welshes not only on interest but principal is taking that borrower-specific risk to the moon.

  369. @MEH 0910
    hbd chick Retweeted:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1247919761033515009

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1248319601647247361
  370. @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1248262542843097088

  371. Steve,
    Your point about assigning blame is very true. However, we have to explain places like Japan or Finland that are doing better. Maybe it’s dietary factors like fish consumption, or habits like saunas/hot baths. When you can’t find a good answer, don’t throw up your hands and say “blame!!” , keep looking harder.

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