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iSteve commenter Hypnotoad666 writes:

There are lots of important hypotheses to be tested. But none will be investigated until long after it is too late and the virus has run its course through the whole population.

Pursuant to bureaucratic fragmentation, HIIPA red tape, and political butt-covering, comprehensive or representative data is totally inaccessible.

No systematic data records who caught the virus, when they caught it, what health effects they suffered because of it, and their health and demographic backgrounds. Indeed, the powers that be have barely even starting the process of doing representative sampling.

There are vast data analytic resources available, including very smart data analysts and medical researchers could be enlisted to crowdsource solutions.

But they can’t do a damn thing without the data: Which is either not being collected, or is locked up tight.

As I may have mentioned once or twice before, for the last 7 years, the Internal Revenue Service has been letting Harvard economist Raj Chetty trawl through your tax returns and mine, which he has done to great media acclaim and almost zero criticism because the tax returns are anoymized so Chetty and his bright boys couldn’t possibly figure out who is who.

In the current crisis, why can’t some Big Data wizard be allowed to do something similar with, say, Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions? This could be hugely useful at telling us how much risk, say, schoolteachers would be in from reopening schools. What about workers at law firms? Bus drivers? Assembly line workers? This kind of info would be useful to know to build confidence in the economy again.

It could be be that, say, 20% of jobs account for 80% of infections among the employed. Why not figure out who is in the Relatively Safe 80%?

There are a million other potentially helpful questions that could be tackled from existing databases.

It’s tragic that America is hamstrung for a lack of mask manufacturing capacity, but it’s ridiculous for America to be hamstrung because of a lack of something we have in the greatest abundance in human history: number-crunching power.

 
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  1. “I thought you said the law was powerless?”

    “Powerless to help you, not punish you.”

  2. The data re kungflu are unusable excrement because, as Dr. Scarfy admitted, CDC is encouraging hospitals to attribute all deaths to kungflu. Plus, Uncle Samantha is paying hospitals $13,000 for every kungflu diagnosis and $39,000 for every intubated kungflu patient.

    • Replies: @Eagle Eye

    The data re kungflu are unusable ...
     
    The solution is simple, if any group of researchers REALLY wants to get to the bottom of this:

    - Offer free TRIPLE TESTING TM to a large random sample of individuals (at least 10,000 individuals selected to be generally representative of the U.S.) Many individuals are likely to volunteer simply to benefit from free, ANONYMOUS testing, including antibody testing that indicates possible immunity (another issue we need to verify).

    - Testing is conducted anonymously. Subjects will be given free access to the data and may VOLUNTEER to share individual results. Go over the heads of DHS and state bureaucrats and contact individuals DIRECTLY.

    - Subjects are offered further incentives (e.g. $200 or free medical care for disease-related issues within 6 months) in return for permission to access all their health records for research purposes.

    TRIPLE TESTING TM: combined infection (nasal swab) testing and antibody testing at first appointment, re-testing for infection e.g. 4 weeks later.

    Further longitudinal studies can be conducted on some individuals, e.g. to monitor disease immediately after infection (which may only be detected a few days later).

  3. What do we see at the top of the Government? Hysteria. Paralysis. Butt-Covering. Grandstanding. And a Certain Amount of Profiteering.

    Anyone with a deep interest in Systems must have seen the series on the Chernobyl disaster.
    Common features with the Chinese response to corona? Lots.But too many common features to our own response.

    Why is the Government reluctant to blame the Chinese? Perhaps they recall the old adage about Those Who Live in Glass Houses.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    I've seen a number of stories in the press like this one:

    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-pandemic-authoritarians-world-opportunity-crack/story?id=69795910

    talking about how authoritarians around the World are using the COVID-19 pandemic to crack down on dissent and seize power. And yet they always point the finger at someone else, like Viktor Orban, whom the establishment media hates anyway. They never mention, for example, the US, where arbitrary government control over people's lives is being normalized and dissent is stifled using the tried-and-true american methods of media propaganda.
  4. What is ridiculous is imagining that the US government has any desire for the real data attendant to this whole sorry to be analyzed. Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.

    Someday, maybe soon, people will figure out how much our “leaders” in politics, business, and public service have been screwing us over and for how long. I hope there will be blood in the streets on that day. Real blood, not metaphorical or ironic.

    • Replies: @Hail

    Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.
     
    "As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu."
    -- Dr. Knut Wittkowski, writing April 15, commenting on the coronavirus pandemic.

    With all kinds of data now pointing to the likelihood <0.1% fatality rate (when the numbers are disentangled) in most places, perhaps slightly higher in the very hardest hit localities (and half of victims now reported to be nursing home patients; almost all the remainder being elderly or very ill individuals), the media and the "media-run state" desperately want to cover up analysis.

    Even more embarrassing than how minor this pandemic actually is/was in historical terms (consider the nuclear-war-like response) is the fact that "the CoronaPanic" looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus. This is a textbook example of why not to create and fan the flames of a Panic.

    The policy response has been so irrational that I believe future generations are likely to remember it either as "the Corona Coup D'Etat of 2020" or as the "Corona Mass-Hysteria Event of 2020." Both are probably correct, to a degree; we'll have to wait to see how it plays out, which narrative wins out, and by how much, in collective memory by say 2030.

    , @moshe
    WHAT THE HELL?!

    The one thing that the crazies on bith sides have in common is calls for BLOOD ON THE STREETS.

    You call for blood because the disease wasn't a big deal while Unz calls for hangings because it's a really really big deal.

    Heck, even Scott Alexander's recent post fantasized (admittedly less seriously than you) about heads on pikes...

    I have disagreed with Steve Sailer regarding this issue and how important it is for The Government to take away our human rights but one thing he has bit done much of (if any) was engage in Hatred against "those who might be wrong" about this whole Coronabusiness or its response.

    This demand for blood in the streets is horrible.

    Let me admit my biases. I regard Quarantinism as a religion/social movement and though I stand behind nobody in mocking the faith's claimed beliefs, I think that religious movements spontaneously adapted (or even acquiesced to) by hundreds of millions of people in countries as different as America, China, Israel and Iran ought to be given some intellectual and enotional respect for its practices, if not for its kindergarten grade justifications.

    I also like that mankind has (4,000 years too late) come around to evolving the collective conscience that brought about a weak form of the biblical Jubilee year.

    Maybe that's why I'm not fantasizing about blood flowing in response to something that millions upon millions of people (whether on one side or on the other) may have gotten wrong --- or at least been caught up in the fire and fear of the religious movement.

    I'm not above fantasizing about punishments meeted out to either my few personal enemies over the years or to class enemies. I doubt it represents the best of me but it's been there. And I've definitely been critical of Steve's tone toward the enemies of this blog's usual ideologies (though you will note that they are never against his own personal enemies).

    But even though Steve has been one of the early Panickers and clearly Has A Side, he has reported (perhaps slightly unfairly but) without hatred the theories and preferences and findings of those countries calling for freedom or for herd immunity, those scientists (pre-inquisition) who wondered about the massive aktons in response to almost no data, and findings that (as was always obvious to me and perhaps you) cheek kissings and choir singings spread the virus around the world while table touching did only about as often as lesbian sex spread hiv.

    Please stop the calls for hangings and blood - especially if you are on my team. (I doubt those who think this is a zionist plot for gold grabbing will consider my call to be in good faith, nor do I especially mind when they throw shit and cover themselves in gorey.
    , @Corvinus
    "What is ridiculous is imagining that the US government has any desire for the real data attendant to this whole sorry to be analyzed. Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal."

    Then there is no need for the data, because you've already drawn the conclusion from something...you haven't even seen.

    "I hope there will be blood in the streets on that day. Real blood, not metaphorical or ironic."

    Another arm chair warrior speaks.

  5. What I can comprehend from the situation is that, Trump is gonna lose bug time in November.

    As a Liberal Democrat, I agree that Biden is not a good choice for nominee but I am very much certain that people will not tolerate a Second Term of this American Psycho in power nowadays.

    I hope Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and the Rust Belt will remove the Orange Buffon this time.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    You know as well as I do that Senilo isn’t going to be allowed to be President for any length of time. His ability to function is nil. He is more demented today than Reagan was on leaving office and it’s getting worse. He’ll be swapped out for some liberal squack who will in turn do as she is told by the globalists and central bankers. I think the plan is to get him elected and then it’s discovered he is not functional and must step down, or he will get the disease of convenience and pass away.

    Alternatively he may have a Howard Dean moment and be swapped out for The Rod or some other she-beast.
    , @Anonymous
    Very little change likely. Same 4 or 5 states. Think the Michigan governor is going to cost Biden that state.

    Arizona all but unaffected by Covid.


    Biden has to leave his rented mansion if he has any chance. 6 months to go and most decisions will be made by football season kickoff.

    Trump still significantly better than even money in the active markets.


    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner
    , @Anon
    Trump has handled the pandemic better than any democrat would have.

    Biden did not approve of the stoppage of flights from China. Nancy Pelosi and De Blasio initially responded with “hug a funky chinaman from funky Chinatown!”

    Nancy “let them eat ice cream” is holding up further funding of small biz aid.

    To hell with the Democrat Party.
  6. anon[148] • Disclaimer says: • Website

    No systematic data records who caught the virus, when they caught it, what health effects they suffered because of it, and their health and demographic backgrounds. Indeed, the powers that be have barely even starting the process of doing representative sampling.

    this will mean that travel patterns, proclivities, etc, will need to be tracked. For gay men, eg. who do what they do, will they be alright with having their lifestyle tracked to monitor a very deadly virus?..

    “butt covering”? try butt exposure…

    • Replies: @Known Fact
    Uh-oh, deBlasio says June's "Pride Parade" may now be in danger
  7. Anonymous[277] • Disclaimer says:

    Hypnotoad is exactly right. We should (and could) have a database of every single proven Covid infection and death complete with demographics, comorbidities and basic clinical course. It could be freely available to all researchers, which would quickly give us a deep, likely profound insight to the disease. But I don’t blame HIPPA; HIPPA would *usually* be an obstacle to this sort of thing, but in pandemic mode you could easily convince Congress to grant the necessary exceptions. In fact it’s amazing how quickly lawmakers and bureaucrats are brushing aside the usual healthcare regulations; paperwork that would normally take months now takes minutes. I hate HIPPA, but it’s not the reason we don’t have this database. Blame our politicians for not having the imagination and intelligence to push for this; but more than that, blame the medical and public establishments, most of whom would rather tweet and give press conferences than actually try to conquer this disease.

    • Replies: @Joseph Doaks
    Yes, but these practices should have been automatic because they should have been put in place in response to the last "pandemic" scare.

    So why didn't that happen?
    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Such a database would not be helpful today, since it would miss 95% of the CV cases. Proven infections are a small percentage of CV cases , people with mild cases are not getting tested, so the data on confirmed cases is not very beneficial and would distort the true scope and dangers of this virus.

    We know the demographics of those dying from COVID-19 , the elderly, the obese and those with existing health problems are 96% of the deaths. The median age at death is 70 for COVID-19.

    The death statistics from New York indicates the risk of dying from CV is About .2% for those under the age of 50 who contract Coronavirus. The CDC and government health leaders are deceiving the public about the risks , just as they did in the eighties about the risk of getting AIDS. We cannot trust Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx , because they are known liars. We cannot trust the media , they want to panic the public and destroy the economy. They hide the statistics from the public , just as they did with HIV statistics. They should be warning the obese and encourage Americans to exercise and get outside for some healthy sun.
    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Such a database would not be helpful today, since it would miss 95% of the CV cases. Proven infections are a small percentage of CV cases , people with mild cases are not getting tested, so the data on confirmed cases is not very beneficial and would distort the true scope and dangers of this virus.

    We know the demographics of those dying from COVID-19 , the elderly, the obese and those with existing health problems are 96% of the deaths. The median age at death is 70 for COVID-19.

    The death statistics from New York indicates the risk of dying from CV is About .2% for those under the age of 50 who contract Coronavirus. The CDC and government health leaders are deceiving the public about the risks , just as they did in the eighties about the risk of getting AIDS. We cannot trust Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx , because they are known liars. We cannot trust the media , they want to panic the public and destroy the economy. They hide the statistics from the public , just as they did with HIV statistics. They should be warning the obese and encourage Americans to exercise and get outside for some healthy sun.
    , @Corvinus
    "We should (and could) have a database of every single proven Covid infection and death complete with demographics, comorbidities and basic clinical course."

    OK, fine. Contact your local representative. Or get into contact with Trump himself. He is more than willing to offer up records and information.

    "HIPPA would *usually* be an obstacle to this sort of thing, but in pandemic mode you could easily
    convince Congress to grant the necessary exceptions."

    How do you convince the average American, as well as libertarians, that this exception does NOT represent a slippery slope?
  8. I don’t think you’re asking the right questions. “How is most likely to get ill” is not the same as “who is the juiciest tort target”.

  9. Anonymous[305] • Disclaimer says:

    Why isn’t Steve writing about restricting immigration anymore?

    There has never been more reason to end immigration to the United States than now, with the country facing skyrocketing unemployment as well infection from a virus that came from a foreign land?

    Every third article of his here should be a pitch to bringing a halt to decades of ruinous mass immigration.

    • Agree: Joseph Doaks
    • Replies: @Meretricious

    Why isn’t Steve writing about restricting immigration anymore?
     
    Because a large proportion of his contributors are (((opposed))) to it.
    , @moshe
    BECAUSE WE ARE WINNING THAT FIGHT, AND BRINGING ATTENTION TO IT WILL AWAKEN ENEMY RESISTENCE.

    Have you never played poker or had a disagreement with your heterosexual significant other?

    This one is obvious and for as long as Steve can discipline himself to refarin from finding cherry-picked pro-immigs he should hold that discipline.

    America very very very agrees with us. Making ANY noise now or for the foreseeable future would be uber super dumb.

    Even in response to provication.
  10. There are some well intentioned privacy protection laws, that often go overboard
    >Additionally, there are the #PCGagOrders, the fear of finding some racist truths when analyzing data. PC loves to withhold relevant information, as is mandated to police, and media to withhold race of ‘MINORITY’ criminals.
    >BTW, when allowed to crawl ALL tax returns, even anonymized, it should not be difficult to find Donald Trump’s returns, or Bill Gates’. Enough information is known about them, and only a few thousand people are in their income bracket.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I'm sure the dozen bright young men Raj Chetty employs to crunch anonymized tax returns have never ever figured out which one is Bill Gates' or which one is Donald Trump's.
  11. MB says: • Website

    This Event Was A Coordinated Last Ditch Effort By The [Deep State], Moves & Countermoves: Dr. Shiva

    This guy says the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent @ 11:58.

    IOW those in charge of the programming for the electronic version of Plato’s cave, aren’t interested in putting themselves out of the propaganda business. Real facts and numbers would expose the scam; that this is one of the most brazen power grabs and a medical coup d’etat, for all practical purposes piggybacking on a seasonal virus epidemic.

    The biostat models – with mitigation included – are way overblown compared to the numbers coming back from the real world. Ferguson out of Imperial College went from 2-3 million fatalities to 100-200K and that is still way too high.
    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?
    One thousand ventilators needed in NY instead of three thousand that Cuomo was yelling about?
    And on it goes.

    The emperor has no clothes/Long live the emperor.

    • Replies: @Simon Tugmutton
    That video is very interesting indeed, thanks.

    https://youtu.be/WwMLMXV6mcU?t=69
    , @Hail

    the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent
     
    The Corona Coup D'Etat.
    , @FPD72

    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?
     
    There were 3,711 passengers and crew aboard, all of whom were tested. A total of 705 tested positive. If there have been 12 deaths, that would be a CFR and IFR (the same in this instance since the entire ship’s company was tested) of 1.7% and a morbidity rate of .32%.

    Apply that same morbidity rate to the entire country and you get a little over a million deaths, about 20 times a bad flu season. But since cruise passengers skew older than our general population and infectious diseases seem to run roughshod through the ships, I’m not sure how applicable these data are to our nation as a whole. Most of the deaths occurred before we tried some of the pharmaceutical treatments that appear to be helpful, so it’s possible that the death totals would be lower.
    , @Faraday's Bobcat
    Shiva is a self-promoting jackass who has been discredited many times.
    , @Redman
    Just watched Shiva's podcast with Molyneux. Very interesting.

    The idea that Big Pharma wants to create a market of billions of people through the manipulation of scientific inquiry is not surprising. That could equate to the development of an entirely new global industry with many folks getting very wealthy. You couldn't ask for a better marketing opportunity with the 201 event followed immediately by the CV pandemic.

    Is the hypothesis that these folks saw an opening with a novel virus which was actually known about earlier than January as has been reported? Or that when it was eventually learned CV was so easily spread (i.e. by asymptomatic people) they just saw an opening and ran with a plan to create as much panic as possible to market the vaccine angle?

    I suspect the latter, since Fauci first minimized the danger of CV in the NE Journal of Medicine in February. But then suddenly morphed into a promoter of mass panic, and a staunch promoter of the need for a vaccine. At a minimum this raises suspicion about his motives.
  12. • LOL: R.G. Camara, hhsiii
    • Replies: @Barnard
    The warning signs were there. Brooks April 2nd column was about how he is mentally exhausted every day by 5 PM. Perhaps the NY Times should relieve David of his obligations to them and replace him with a columnist who exclusively writes about her hair.
  13. Data research into this might lead into some unsavory conclusions.

    Not merely because they’d be un-p.c. But also because China has its fingers in many research pots, both in terms of money and in terms of Chinese spies at U.S. (and other Western) institutions.

    China will squelch any data research that even mildly implicates them. For crying out loud, they’ve already got CNN, the NY Times, and MSNBC spewing their propaganda.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Hail

    China will squelch any data research that even mildly implicates them. For crying out loud, they’ve already got CNN, the NY Times, and MSNBC spewing their propaganda.
     
    The commenter prime noticer has written about how one aspect of the Corona Doup D'Etat has a pro-China angle which is mixed-in with the D-Team / Coalition of the Fringes dominant faction in US domestic politics:

    i believe this virus has greatly accelerated the US cold civil war.

    1) the Democrats see that the Republicans are about to go down permanently, and are already making their early alliance with a major outside force, China, against their internal enemy, Republicans. this happens in most big civil wars, and is one of the telltale steps along the way. the Democrats are not only openly hostile to Trump and Republicans as always, deliberately getting in the way during a ‘crisis’, but are now siding with China in the domestic argument about the virus, an ally they had not previously taken. [....]
     

    Hey, you know what's funny?

    Try this:

    Try imagining the CNN-MSNBC-NYT-WashPost-InternetClickbaiter axis, and the rest of the MSM and their hangers-on, and so on, start drumbeating something about like the following by May or by summer, and keep up the pressure through fall, RussiaHoax-like:

    "The true origin of the devastating coronavirus -- or, as activists and community organizers in hard-hit places have been bravely calling it, the Trump Virus -- is probably in the US itself, not in China as previously reported by racists aligned with Trump's inner circle. An international campaign to sue the Trump administration for damages has begun..."

    How hard is it to imagine that becoming reality? Disturbingly not that hard.

    prime noticer was right.

  14. Besides the reasons you and Hypnotoad666 correctly cite that lifesaving pandemic data will not be available, there are three further roadblocks for obtaining medical data compared to the Chetty data-heist:

    1) Raj Chetty’s lifting of everyone’s IRS data was probably a major federal felony. No one will ever be prosecuted for it because—as too many recent scandals demonstrate—insiders don’t prosecute insiders, but still, they probably hoped that particular breach of federal data security and fiduciary duty would just be forgotten and now wish you would stop drawing attention to it.

    2) The IRS is a single unitary institution: if you plug into their computer system, you have access to all federal tax data. By contrast, there is no central repository of medical data. There are thousands of hospitals, clinics, and insurers, each with their own computer systems, paperwork, and habits. To be sure, there are some large federal databases (e.g., the VA, Medicare), but they are incomplete and unrepresentative (not to mention, even worse organized than the IRS).

    3) At the IRS, the data is the product. Whatever value your AGI is recorded at by them is by definition your AGI that year, tied to your SSN. In medicine, healthcare is the product, data is just a byproduct. There are certain things they record meticulously, like your billing address, but as far as your actual medical condition, well, subjectivity reigns. Symptoms, background, medications, etc. may or may not be recorded, digitally or on paper, legibly or illegibly, in a format consistent with other offices or not, paper notes may or may not be digitized in a timely way, diagnoses may or may not be influenced by non-medical factors (COVID diagnoses are strongly biased by federal money), your identity may or may not be recorded accurately or comparably, etc. etc. So even if you can break through all the other barriers, what do you get? A mishmash of incompatible and dubious chicken scratching.

    Someone someday might be able to make a meaningful study from all that chaos, but it won’t be soon, cheap or reliable.

    • Replies: @R.G. Camara
    I agree, except that I would bet good money on the idea that there does exist some central repository of medical data----it's just top secret. Given the Patriot Act and our computerized society, I am confident the NSA or CIA or some other Deep State assholes have all of our medical records in a large mainframe, just waiting to be cross-referenced for whatever reason their evil little hearts demand.
    , @Pericles
    Not to mention the IRS is already weaponized and rotten to the core. And there's nothing you peons can do about it, ha ha ha! (Lois Lerner, etc.)
  15. @Almost Missouri
    Besides the reasons you and Hypnotoad666 correctly cite that lifesaving pandemic data will not be available, there are three further roadblocks for obtaining medical data compared to the Chetty data-heist:

    1) Raj Chetty's lifting of everyone's IRS data was probably a major federal felony. No one will ever be prosecuted for it because—as too many recent scandals demonstrate—insiders don't prosecute insiders, but still, they probably hoped that particular breach of federal data security and fiduciary duty would just be forgotten and now wish you would stop drawing attention to it.

    2) The IRS is a single unitary institution: if you plug into their computer system, you have access to all federal tax data. By contrast, there is no central repository of medical data. There are thousands of hospitals, clinics, and insurers, each with their own computer systems, paperwork, and habits. To be sure, there are some large federal databases (e.g., the VA, Medicare), but they are incomplete and unrepresentative (not to mention, even worse organized than the IRS).

    3) At the IRS, the data is the product. Whatever value your AGI is recorded at by them is by definition your AGI that year, tied to your SSN. In medicine, healthcare is the product, data is just a byproduct. There are certain things they record meticulously, like your billing address, but as far as your actual medical condition, well, subjectivity reigns. Symptoms, background, medications, etc. may or may not be recorded, digitally or on paper, legibly or illegibly, in a format consistent with other offices or not, paper notes may or may not be digitized in a timely way, diagnoses may or may not be influenced by non-medical factors (COVID diagnoses are strongly biased by federal money), your identity may or may not be recorded accurately or comparably, etc. etc. So even if you can break through all the other barriers, what do you get? A mishmash of incompatible and dubious chicken scratching.

    Someone someday might be able to make a meaningful study from all that chaos, but it won't be soon, cheap or reliable.

    I agree, except that I would bet good money on the idea that there does exist some central repository of medical data—-it’s just top secret. Given the Patriot Act and our computerized society, I am confident the NSA or CIA or some other Deep State assholes have all of our medical records in a large mainframe, just waiting to be cross-referenced for whatever reason their evil little hearts demand.

    • Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers
    Mulder and Scully already found that info in that mountain in West Virginia in 1995 - probably predictive programming. Remember the Church committee exposing neato Batman's utility belt tools back in the Seventies, like that icicle heart attack bullet in the FBI's arsenal? Judith Vary Baker's book about being a brilliant highschool girl in the late Fifties with her own bioweaponry lab for injectable two-week metastatic cancer is even sicker. These m-f's have been on the case since forever. This all is merely their endgame, funded since 1913 via the Fed. They're giddily hailing their dark lord as we speak. Irreversible techno-totalitarian, Panopticon/Skynet society is imminent. Money supply, food supply, lockdown, Book of Revelations tattoo from Bill "Gatekeeper" Gates, sofa king pleased with himself.

    “And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”

    ― Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn , The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
    , @Almost Missouri
    I didn't expect to defend the integrity of our intelligence agencies, but—partly due to HIPAA (another thing I didn't expect to defend)—medical office systems are among the hardest domestic hacking targets. And, as per my previous comment, even if you do hack them, what do you get? Not much that is useful.

    Well, I guess I'm not really defending anyone's "integrity". It's just that medical records are largely crappy records, so as a target, licit or illicit, they are much less valuable in practice than in theory. If you want to analyze/embarrass one individual, medical records could be useful, but for anything large scale, the data acquiring, scrubbing, interpreting, and analyzing costs quickly become prohibitive. Even the NSA has a budget.
  16. Mr Sailer, as you know, only some numbers in America may be crunched…

    Number of gentle-giant-aspiring-rappers-who-were-turning-their-lives-around shot by white police officers.

    Number of cherubic angelic black youths killed by ‘white’ men like George Zimmerman

    Number of African-Americans who suffer from white-people caused diseases such as redliningvirus, notwinningallthegrammysvirus, hairtouchingvirus, etc….

    And now, you are permitted to crunch…

    Number of obese diabetic welfare negroes killed by the Trumpvirus.

    • Replies: @Ancient Briton
    Too, Two, 2 funny!
    , @Anon87
    Right. If we actually had serious number crunching on the virus data I imagine the "what have we learned?" lesson is...... "AI is racist" and that's the end of that.
  17. Google, Apple, Samsung, Verizon and T-Mobile could probably be loaned the NSA’s cellphone correlation software, tie it to their own internal data and get a good historical look and also be able to warn people about potential exposure. “We noticed you sat in the drive through line at Starbucks for 15 minutes. Two people who have since tested positive for Covid-19 were in line before you an hour before. Please isolate accordinly”.

    Google and Apple are doing something similar right now.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Please isolate accordinly
     
    https://media1.tenor.com/images/d0014795323ad7c6112ae10c545a8b44/tenor.gif?itemid=13760828
    , @Mr. Anon

    Google, Apple, Samsung, Verizon and T-Mobile could probably be loaned the NSA’s cellphone correlation software, tie it to their own internal data and get a good historical look and also be able to warn people about potential exposure. “We noticed you sat in the drive through line at Starbucks for 15 minutes. Two people who have since tested positive for Covid-19 were in line before you an hour before. Please isolate accordinly”.
     
    The same technique could be used to flatten the curve on thought-crime. "We noticed that you were at a party with a person who has since been discovered to be a regular reader of Unz.com. Watch this video produced by Vox instructing you to trust only vetted media outlets."
    , @moshe
    I immediately thought of this...

    https://youtu.be/5d7SaO0JAHk
  18. @Lugash
    Google, Apple, Samsung, Verizon and T-Mobile could probably be loaned the NSA's cellphone correlation software, tie it to their own internal data and get a good historical look and also be able to warn people about potential exposure. "We noticed you sat in the drive through line at Starbucks for 15 minutes. Two people who have since tested positive for Covid-19 were in line before you an hour before. Please isolate accordinly".

    Google and Apple are doing something similar right now.

    Please isolate accordinly

    • Replies: @Lugash
    LOL, nice.

    Speaking of the NSA, they've had our movements mapped in real time since at least 9/11. I'm sure they're monitoring how well we're following 'stay at home' orders. My state health department just started airing commercials explaining the difference between isolation and quarantine and how they can be 'mandated'. I think the feds are seeing the data that the lockdown is slipping and prepping for forced action.
  19. Assuming federalism is still permitted, each state can try its own system of staged recovery. Some will succeed better than others (or fail less spectacularly). Time will tell, but the Orange One should stay out of it.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    Staged recovery should happen at the county level. Rural states like Wyoming or Montana should experiment with the smallest, least affected counties. Let healthy, young residents of those counties resume their normal lives. Have it go slowly so if an outbreak does happen it can be dealt with. Having a good testing regime in place before and after the letup would be necessary.
  20. China revised its Wuhan death figures: http://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2020-04/17/content_75943843.htm

    The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan as of the end of April 16 was revised up by 325 to 50,333, and the number of fatalities up by 1,290 to 3,869.

    And China’s economy shrank for the firs time in 18 years – a decline of close to 7% in the first three years of 2020.

  21. @Reg Cæsar

    Please isolate accordinly
     
    https://media1.tenor.com/images/d0014795323ad7c6112ae10c545a8b44/tenor.gif?itemid=13760828

    LOL, nice.

    Speaking of the NSA, they’ve had our movements mapped in real time since at least 9/11. I’m sure they’re monitoring how well we’re following ‘stay at home’ orders. My state health department just started airing commercials explaining the difference between isolation and quarantine and how they can be ‘mandated’. I think the feds are seeing the data that the lockdown is slipping and prepping for forced action.

    • Replies: @Brian Reilly
    Lugash, We, the might-be-infected, great unwashed are not quite desperate enough. Not yet. What with rent forbearance, no courts to run eviction paper, mortgage forbearance, no truck/suv repo work, no work to go to, etc, we just aren't quite worried, scared enough. The people running this global scam that is using Coronavirus® as a means to steal, ruin and enslave need us a bit more concerned so we will just do what they say without the need for actual shock troops, martial law, etc. They need us to embrace (through fear) the bars of our new jail cells.

    Next up is meat shortages. Then eggs and dairy, then vegetables. Soon, gas stations will be mostly closed, deliveries suspended. They need to keep planting difficult and restricted so any excess in the supply system can be used up, with much less coming in the new crop season. By 01 July or so, we will be frantic, they hope. I wonder how long they will allow liquor and (in states where it is legal) marijuana sales.

    Fascinating times.
    , @Polynikes

    Speaking of the NSA, they’ve had our movements mapped in real time since at least 9/11.
     
    They've been trying since then. Since ~2010 for sure. The invention of the smart phone was a godsend to them (and every other gov. in the world, as we're seeing).
  22. “ Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions”

    Both organizations routinely give access to their data for big epidemiology studies. As do smaller HMOs, but you named the two that do it the most. Kaiser itself conducts a lot of this research itself in house too. Search “Kaiser” on PubMed for many examples.

    HIPAA is a general-purpose excuse for any actor involved in the 20% of our economy related with healthcare to not do something they don’t want to do, or want a lot more money to do. It’s the “I’ve got a headache” of the heathcare industrial complex. So for your particular request for race-coded Covid data… sorry HIPAA.

    • Agree: Coemgen
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    HIPAA is a general-purpose excuse for any actor involved in the 20% of our economy related with healthcare to not do something they don’t want to do, or want a lot more money to do. It’s the “I’ve got a headache” of the heathcare industrial complex. So for your particular request for race-coded Covid data… sorry HIPAA.
     
    In other words, "pwoduct wiability".
    , @Almost Missouri

    "HIPAA is a general-purpose excuse for any actor involved in the 20% of our economy related with healthcare to not do something they don’t want to do"
     
    Agree.

    A healthcare lawyer described HIPAA to me as "a law that makes getting information impossible and the healthcare industry likes it that way."
  23. the data on deaths indicate that 85% of those dying are not employed. Thus the death data will not be as helpful in determining the most dangerous occupations, since healthy young workers are not dying from CV. The majority of the workforce is under the age of 50 and healthier than the average non-working person. Looking at the obituaries of all those dying of CV will demonstrate the highest risk occupation will be retired grandfather living in a nursing home.

    Since the people going to the hospital for treatment are very sick , they are mostly elderly retirees who are not working and thus caught the virus from another family member or from socializing with friends etc…

    Most of those getting coronavirus will never go to the hospital for treatment, thus most cases will not be documented. New York City has 11,500 reported deaths, and probably 2 million New Yorkers have been infected, yet only 123,000 New Yorkers have tested positive for CV. Based on the number of deaths there must be another 1,800,000 New Yorkers who have or had CV and never bothered to get tested.

    unlike Income taxes, Americans are not required to get tested for CV nor are Americans required get treatment when they get sick, nor are Americans forced to report when they have a cold or the flu. 90% of CV cases will go unreported and undiagnosed. This makes it difficult to obtain meaningful data on those who have contracted CV, since the vast majority of cases will never be reported to any health-care database. The data we have is biased , counting just the most sick who tend to be the elderly and obese. Young healthy people are more likely to get CV but less likely to need medical care.

  24. @Sincerity.net
    There are some well intentioned privacy protection laws, that often go overboard
    >Additionally, there are the #PCGagOrders, the fear of finding some racist truths when analyzing data. PC loves to withhold relevant information, as is mandated to police, and media to withhold race of 'MINORITY' criminals.
    >BTW, when allowed to crawl ALL tax returns, even anonymized, it should not be difficult to find Donald Trump's returns, or Bill Gates'. Enough information is known about them, and only a few thousand people are in their income bracket.

    I’m sure the dozen bright young men Raj Chetty employs to crunch anonymized tax returns have never ever figured out which one is Bill Gates’ or which one is Donald Trump’s.

    • LOL: Meretricious
  25. @James Speaks
    Assuming federalism is still permitted, each state can try its own system of staged recovery. Some will succeed better than others (or fail less spectacularly). Time will tell, but the Orange One should stay out of it.

    Staged recovery should happen at the county level. Rural states like Wyoming or Montana should experiment with the smallest, least affected counties. Let healthy, young residents of those counties resume their normal lives. Have it go slowly so if an outbreak does happen it can be dealt with. Having a good testing regime in place before and after the letup would be necessary.

  26. Anonymized health data has been sent to federal agencies for years. It’s a common practice.

    https://healthdata.gov/

    If researchers can’t get the cov-19 related data, it isn’t because of HIPAA, or due to technical difficulty; it’s political. The politicians want an under-count, so that they can brag about what a good job they did.

  27. OT

    I’m beginning to see stories hinting at permanent side effects from Covid: respiratory, heart, kidney, liver, and brain. I hope these don’t turn out to be true.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    That's one of the whistling past the graveyard scenarios. The others:

    1) The virus is going to keep rolling through the population until we develop heard immunity.So it's the worst of both lockdown and letting it run it's course.

    2) Some people aren't developing immunity and are getting reinfected.

    3) There are multiple strains and getting infected by a new one is worse than the previous one.

    4) The virus is mutating like the flu, so no one develops immunity.

    4b) A vaccine will only be partially effective.
  28. Anonymous[343] • Disclaimer says:

    We must really be as rich and decadent as the Koran-floggers say, if we can subsidize an entire “pundit class” indulging themselves in self-flagellating lockdown kink while paying none of its cost themselves. We are footing the bill for a rolling daily Reichstag campfire to the noble end of further empowering lifelong bureaucrats, arbitrageurs, and big-pharma stooges haunting the Former Acela Corridor. It’s a fine scam– is there any hardier box-office perennial than apocalyptic dancing mania?

  29. @Anon
    OT

    I'm beginning to see stories hinting at permanent side effects from Covid: respiratory, heart, kidney, liver, and brain. I hope these don't turn out to be true.

    That’s one of the whistling past the graveyard scenarios. The others:

    1) The virus is going to keep rolling through the population until we develop heard immunity.So it’s the worst of both lockdown and letting it run it’s course.

    2) Some people aren’t developing immunity and are getting reinfected.

    3) There are multiple strains and getting infected by a new one is worse than the previous one.

    4) The virus is mutating like the flu, so no one develops immunity.

    4b) A vaccine will only be partially effective.

  30. Anonymous[379] • Disclaimer says:

    Wow, America just had 4,591 deaths in the past 24 hours. 2 days ago, it was 2,400 deaths, and 3 weeks ago it was ~1,000 deaths day. The virus is progressing at an exponential function.

    COVID-19 is making it very clear that it is not one bit scared of the superpower, and appears to have chosen the U.S to make it’s statement about how weak the human species is, and who truly runs the planet.

    Viruses and bacteria constitute 98% of the entire biomass of the planet. This is their planet. We just live in it.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    https://youtu.be/JsbNqBpmzmY?t=157
  31. Steve still not getting it. We will be locked down by our betters until we submit and grovel to President Biden then President Abrams.

    The lockdown is punishment for deplorable ness.

  32. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    The data re kungflu are unusable excrement because, as Dr. Scarfy admitted, CDC is encouraging hospitals to attribute all deaths to kungflu. Plus, Uncle Samantha is paying hospitals $13,000 for every kungflu diagnosis and $39,000 for every intubated kungflu patient.

    The data re kungflu are unusable …

    The solution is simple, if any group of researchers REALLY wants to get to the bottom of this:

    – Offer free TRIPLE TESTING TM to a large random sample of individuals (at least 10,000 individuals selected to be generally representative of the U.S.) Many individuals are likely to volunteer simply to benefit from free, ANONYMOUS testing, including antibody testing that indicates possible immunity (another issue we need to verify).

    – Testing is conducted anonymously. Subjects will be given free access to the data and may VOLUNTEER to share individual results. Go over the heads of DHS and state bureaucrats and contact individuals DIRECTLY.

    – Subjects are offered further incentives (e.g. $200 or free medical care for disease-related issues within 6 months) in return for permission to access all their health records for research purposes.

    TRIPLE TESTING TM: combined infection (nasal swab) testing and antibody testing at first appointment, re-testing for infection e.g. 4 weeks later.

    Further longitudinal studies can be conducted on some individuals, e.g. to monitor disease immediately after infection (which may only be detected a few days later).

    • Replies: @Meretricious
    Only genuine freaks would tolerate a scheme like that, though it may indeed be the case that genuine freaks now represent an accurate cross-section of the American public.
    , @Polynikes
    Santa Clara County preliminary study is back. 2.5 to 4% estimate of the entire population that has already had it and recovered. Or about 50x the confirmed cases now.

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1251170511557722115?s=20


    Obviously, if that holds true across the country, then the IFR is considerably lower than the numbers being thrown around.
  33. @MB
    This Event Was A Coordinated Last Ditch Effort By The [Deep State], Moves & Countermoves: Dr. Shiva

    This guy says the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent @ 11:58.

    IOW those in charge of the programming for the electronic version of Plato's cave, aren't interested in putting themselves out of the propaganda business. Real facts and numbers would expose the scam; that this is one of the most brazen power grabs and a medical coup d'etat, for all practical purposes piggybacking on a seasonal virus epidemic.

    The biostat models - with mitigation included - are way overblown compared to the numbers coming back from the real world. Ferguson out of Imperial College went from 2-3 million fatalities to 100-200K and that is still way too high.
    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?
    One thousand ventilators needed in NY instead of three thousand that Cuomo was yelling about?
    And on it goes.

    The emperor has no clothes/Long live the emperor.

    That video is very interesting indeed, thanks.

  34. Such a database exists. It resides in the Blue Cross/Blue shield Association. Technically BCBS is made up of 50 plus state associations, but it has data collection norms for each state (if you have BCBS Illinois and you break your leg in Texas, the medical provider has to charge you the BCBS Texas rate – this is hated by medical providers since they want to charge full price) . BCBS has full access to records (for billing).

    HIPPA has been waived for many things, like telemedicine. Frankly the feds could just take the data under eminent domain.

    • Replies: @Travis
    This database will miss 90% of the cases since 90% of CV cases go unreported and undiagnosed. Half the people with CV do not know they have CV. Most who have symptoms do not bother getting tested, nor do they seek medical care.

    we have data on the deaths, which indicate the vast majority of deaths occur among the elderly and those with other health issues. The death statistics are not widely publicized, because it would end the panic. CNN has yet to report the death statistics from New York, which indicates 85% of the deaths are among the elderly. Instead they report on the few middle aged victims, most of them are obese and have health issues which go unreported. The news reports amplify the panic, by only reporting on the few victims in their 40s...they cannot find any victims younger than 35 years old.

    The government wants to keep the panic going...thus they misrepresent the data on deaths, counting all deaths as COVID-19 deaths while not informing the public that the risk to those under the age of 55 is almost too low to measure. The media also keeps the public from hearing about the success of the Trump Tonic , which doctors and hospitals are using to keep patients out of the ICU.

    everyday Steve Sailer seeks data on the occupations of the dead and hospitalized patients....when it is clear 90% of them are not employed. It is not too difficult to figure out which occupations are dangerous. Those working in hospitals will have more cases of CV than most professions, yet they continue to go to work each day. Retail workers are exposed to hundreds of people each day and will be expected to be at higher risk of getting sick. Those commuting on a subway each day will have a higher risk. Those with young children attending school will be at higher risk. Coronavirus is very contagious , similar to the common cold. Americans living in big cities with a high population density of people will get sick.

    12,000 NYC deaths means there were 1.2 million infected 3 weeks ago (if the death rate is 1%) and we would have 2 million infected by now in New York City, which is 25% of the NYC population. Yet only 125,000 New Yorkers are confirmed to have CV...Most likely 20% of the NY metro population has already had CV and recovered. The vast majority were never tested, never went to a doctor and recovered at home in a few days.

  35. @Almost Missouri
    Besides the reasons you and Hypnotoad666 correctly cite that lifesaving pandemic data will not be available, there are three further roadblocks for obtaining medical data compared to the Chetty data-heist:

    1) Raj Chetty's lifting of everyone's IRS data was probably a major federal felony. No one will ever be prosecuted for it because—as too many recent scandals demonstrate—insiders don't prosecute insiders, but still, they probably hoped that particular breach of federal data security and fiduciary duty would just be forgotten and now wish you would stop drawing attention to it.

    2) The IRS is a single unitary institution: if you plug into their computer system, you have access to all federal tax data. By contrast, there is no central repository of medical data. There are thousands of hospitals, clinics, and insurers, each with their own computer systems, paperwork, and habits. To be sure, there are some large federal databases (e.g., the VA, Medicare), but they are incomplete and unrepresentative (not to mention, even worse organized than the IRS).

    3) At the IRS, the data is the product. Whatever value your AGI is recorded at by them is by definition your AGI that year, tied to your SSN. In medicine, healthcare is the product, data is just a byproduct. There are certain things they record meticulously, like your billing address, but as far as your actual medical condition, well, subjectivity reigns. Symptoms, background, medications, etc. may or may not be recorded, digitally or on paper, legibly or illegibly, in a format consistent with other offices or not, paper notes may or may not be digitized in a timely way, diagnoses may or may not be influenced by non-medical factors (COVID diagnoses are strongly biased by federal money), your identity may or may not be recorded accurately or comparably, etc. etc. So even if you can break through all the other barriers, what do you get? A mishmash of incompatible and dubious chicken scratching.

    Someone someday might be able to make a meaningful study from all that chaos, but it won't be soon, cheap or reliable.

    Not to mention the IRS is already weaponized and rotten to the core. And there’s nothing you peons can do about it, ha ha ha! (Lois Lerner, etc.)

  36. Not to mention, this kind of data on tens of thousands of cases:

    a1, a2, a3, etc on age, BMI, comorbidities
    b1, b2, b3, etc, on treatments given, including drugs, ICU, oxygen, ventilator
    c1, c2, etc. on outcomes, dead, recovered, still in care

    wouldn’t that kind of real data be worth a thousand controlled studies on particular forms of care?

  37. If you want to try your hand at COVID-19 data analysis, take a look at:

    https://www.kaggle.com/covid19

    There is a ton of data there to get your teeth into.

  38. @Eagle Eye

    The data re kungflu are unusable ...
     
    The solution is simple, if any group of researchers REALLY wants to get to the bottom of this:

    - Offer free TRIPLE TESTING TM to a large random sample of individuals (at least 10,000 individuals selected to be generally representative of the U.S.) Many individuals are likely to volunteer simply to benefit from free, ANONYMOUS testing, including antibody testing that indicates possible immunity (another issue we need to verify).

    - Testing is conducted anonymously. Subjects will be given free access to the data and may VOLUNTEER to share individual results. Go over the heads of DHS and state bureaucrats and contact individuals DIRECTLY.

    - Subjects are offered further incentives (e.g. $200 or free medical care for disease-related issues within 6 months) in return for permission to access all their health records for research purposes.

    TRIPLE TESTING TM: combined infection (nasal swab) testing and antibody testing at first appointment, re-testing for infection e.g. 4 weeks later.

    Further longitudinal studies can be conducted on some individuals, e.g. to monitor disease immediately after infection (which may only be detected a few days later).

    Only genuine freaks would tolerate a scheme like that, though it may indeed be the case that genuine freaks now represent an accurate cross-section of the American public.

  39. @Anonymous
    Why isn’t Steve writing about restricting immigration anymore?

    There has never been more reason to end immigration to the United States than now, with the country facing skyrocketing unemployment as well infection from a virus that came from a foreign land?

    Every third article of his here should be a pitch to bringing a halt to decades of ruinous mass immigration.

    Why isn’t Steve writing about restricting immigration anymore?

    Because a large proportion of his contributors are (((opposed))) to it.

  40. @R.G. Camara
    I agree, except that I would bet good money on the idea that there does exist some central repository of medical data----it's just top secret. Given the Patriot Act and our computerized society, I am confident the NSA or CIA or some other Deep State assholes have all of our medical records in a large mainframe, just waiting to be cross-referenced for whatever reason their evil little hearts demand.

    Mulder and Scully already found that info in that mountain in West Virginia in 1995 – probably predictive programming. Remember the Church committee exposing neato Batman’s utility belt tools back in the Seventies, like that icicle heart attack bullet in the FBI’s arsenal? Judith Vary Baker’s book about being a brilliant highschool girl in the late Fifties with her own bioweaponry lab for injectable two-week metastatic cancer is even sicker. These m-f’s have been on the case since forever. This all is merely their endgame, funded since 1913 via the Fed. They’re giddily hailing their dark lord as we speak. Irreversible techno-totalitarian, Panopticon/Skynet society is imminent. Money supply, food supply, lockdown, Book of Revelations tattoo from Bill “Gatekeeper” Gates, sofa king pleased with himself.

    “And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”

    ― Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn , The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956

  41. @MB
    This Event Was A Coordinated Last Ditch Effort By The [Deep State], Moves & Countermoves: Dr. Shiva

    This guy says the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent @ 11:58.

    IOW those in charge of the programming for the electronic version of Plato's cave, aren't interested in putting themselves out of the propaganda business. Real facts and numbers would expose the scam; that this is one of the most brazen power grabs and a medical coup d'etat, for all practical purposes piggybacking on a seasonal virus epidemic.

    The biostat models - with mitigation included - are way overblown compared to the numbers coming back from the real world. Ferguson out of Imperial College went from 2-3 million fatalities to 100-200K and that is still way too high.
    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?
    One thousand ventilators needed in NY instead of three thousand that Cuomo was yelling about?
    And on it goes.

    The emperor has no clothes/Long live the emperor.

    the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent

    The Corona Coup D’Etat.

    • Replies: @MB
    If not the Great 2020 Panic Plannedemic Psyop, which is not as short and sweet.

    cheers
  42. anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:

    Speaking of data – since the fatality rate appears to be much lower than the alarmists were projecting, lets turn our attention to the non-fatalaties – anyone here have any sources they deem reputable for the symptoms & impacts on those who did not die? In other words, there are other kinds of impacts than “you’re dead.” What can we believe about those impacts? The only anecdote I have is that an acquaintance who may have been exposed but is self-isolating and is under regular medical care via facetime or whatever has been fighting something for more than 6 weeks now. Symptoms are fatigue and apparently difficulty speaking. This is an otherwise healthy human adult with no obesity or other “underlying condition.”

  43. @R.G. Camara
    Data research into this might lead into some unsavory conclusions.

    Not merely because they'd be un-p.c. But also because China has its fingers in many research pots, both in terms of money and in terms of Chinese spies at U.S. (and other Western) institutions.

    China will squelch any data research that even mildly implicates them. For crying out loud, they've already got CNN, the NY Times, and MSNBC spewing their propaganda.

    China will squelch any data research that even mildly implicates them. For crying out loud, they’ve already got CNN, the NY Times, and MSNBC spewing their propaganda.

    The commenter prime noticer has written about how one aspect of the Corona Doup D’Etat has a pro-China angle which is mixed-in with the D-Team / Coalition of the Fringes dominant faction in US domestic politics:

    i believe this virus has greatly accelerated the US cold civil war.

    1) the Democrats see that the Republicans are about to go down permanently, and are already making their early alliance with a major outside force, China, against their internal enemy, Republicans. this happens in most big civil wars, and is one of the telltale steps along the way. the Democrats are not only openly hostile to Trump and Republicans as always, deliberately getting in the way during a ‘crisis’, but are now siding with China in the domestic argument about the virus, an ally they had not previously taken. [….]

    Hey, you know what’s funny?

    Try this:

    Try imagining the CNN-MSNBC-NYT-WashPost-InternetClickbaiter axis, and the rest of the MSM and their hangers-on, and so on, start drumbeating something about like the following by May or by summer, and keep up the pressure through fall, RussiaHoax-like:

    The true origin of the devastating coronavirus — or, as activists and community organizers in hard-hit places have been bravely calling it, the Trump Virus — is probably in the US itself, not in China as previously reported by racists aligned with Trump’s inner circle. An international campaign to sue the Trump administration for damages has begun…”

    How hard is it to imagine that becoming reality? Disturbingly not that hard.

    prime noticer was right.

    • Agree: R.G. Camara
    • Replies: @Meretricious
    I bet it'll turn out that cishet white males are behind it. Likely of Anglo descent, maybe with some German admixture. Is Haven Monahan really Irish? Notice how quiet he's been lately? Remember, there's no such thing as a coincidence.
    , @anonymous
    There are other columns and substantial comments here on TUR that credibly implicate Uncle Sam. It's early, and we may never know what happened or why.

    ALL powerful institutions, especially governmental authorities, lie as needed to cover their backsides or scapegoat rivals. Why at this point are you so sympathetic to the one that you happen to live under?

    , @Marshall Lentini
    100%.
  44. @Hail

    China will squelch any data research that even mildly implicates them. For crying out loud, they’ve already got CNN, the NY Times, and MSNBC spewing their propaganda.
     
    The commenter prime noticer has written about how one aspect of the Corona Doup D'Etat has a pro-China angle which is mixed-in with the D-Team / Coalition of the Fringes dominant faction in US domestic politics:

    i believe this virus has greatly accelerated the US cold civil war.

    1) the Democrats see that the Republicans are about to go down permanently, and are already making their early alliance with a major outside force, China, against their internal enemy, Republicans. this happens in most big civil wars, and is one of the telltale steps along the way. the Democrats are not only openly hostile to Trump and Republicans as always, deliberately getting in the way during a ‘crisis’, but are now siding with China in the domestic argument about the virus, an ally they had not previously taken. [....]
     

    Hey, you know what's funny?

    Try this:

    Try imagining the CNN-MSNBC-NYT-WashPost-InternetClickbaiter axis, and the rest of the MSM and their hangers-on, and so on, start drumbeating something about like the following by May or by summer, and keep up the pressure through fall, RussiaHoax-like:

    "The true origin of the devastating coronavirus -- or, as activists and community organizers in hard-hit places have been bravely calling it, the Trump Virus -- is probably in the US itself, not in China as previously reported by racists aligned with Trump's inner circle. An international campaign to sue the Trump administration for damages has begun..."

    How hard is it to imagine that becoming reality? Disturbingly not that hard.

    prime noticer was right.

    I bet it’ll turn out that cishet white males are behind it. Likely of Anglo descent, maybe with some German admixture. Is Haven Monahan really Irish? Notice how quiet he’s been lately? Remember, there’s no such thing as a coincidence.

  45. @Brian Reilly
    What is ridiculous is imagining that the US government has any desire for the real data attendant to this whole sorry to be analyzed. Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.

    Someday, maybe soon, people will figure out how much our "leaders" in politics, business, and public service have been screwing us over and for how long. I hope there will be blood in the streets on that day. Real blood, not metaphorical or ironic.

    Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.

    As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu.”
    — Dr. Knut Wittkowski, writing April 15, commenting on the coronavirus pandemic.

    With all kinds of data now pointing to the likelihood <0.1% fatality rate (when the numbers are disentangled) in most places, perhaps slightly higher in the very hardest hit localities (and half of victims now reported to be nursing home patients; almost all the remainder being elderly or very ill individuals), the media and the "media-run state" desperately want to cover up analysis.

    Even more embarrassing than how minor this pandemic actually is/was in historical terms (consider the nuclear-war-like response) is the fact that “the CoronaPanic” looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus. This is a textbook example of why not to create and fan the flames of a Panic.

    The policy response has been so irrational that I believe future generations are likely to remember it either as “the Corona Coup D’Etat of 2020” or as the “Corona Mass-Hysteria Event of 2020.” Both are probably correct, to a degree; we’ll have to wait to see how it plays out, which narrative wins out, and by how much, in collective memory by say 2030.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
    "is the fact that “the CoronaPanic” looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus."

    Can you amplify this statement? I'm genuinely interested.
    , @Louis Renault

    the Corona Coup D’Etat of 2020
     
    Yes, because Russia Collusion, Stormy Daniels, and the Ukriane "whistleblower" all failed.
    , @The Wild Geese Howard
    My contention is that if the Dems somehow retake the White House in November CV-19 goes straight into the memory hole, never to be heard from again.
    , @eD
    "The policy response has been so irrational that I believe future generations are likely to remember it either as “the Corona Coup D’Etat of 2020” or as the “Corona Mass-Hysteria Event of 2020.”"

    It really depends if the conspiracy theorists or cock-up theorists are right. It depends if the crackdown was designed to engineer a 1984-style dystopia or if it was a case of the rulers (some of whom probably have senile dementia) and parts of the general panicking. Of course, this could start as a cock-up that becomes a crackdown to keep those responsible from being accountable, or a crackdown that is really a rehearsal for the real crackdown and so is lifted temporarily.

    If the lockdown is lifted, it will be forgotten, or known as "the panic of 2020", or even remembered as "the epidemic of 2020" and the small number of deaths forgotten. If not, then "the crackdown".
  46. The “80% relatively safe” are people under 60 who don’t have a serious pre-existing condition.

    My modest proposal for this March, oh, is it May for some reason? Coulda been March…

    A) HIDE YOUR GRANDPARENTS
    *All people attending to said grandparents need to be isolated with them as well

    B) If you are sick, stay the fudk home! (Bonus! Applies in 2010 and 2030 too!)

    C) Profit

  47. In the current crisis, why can’t some Big Data wizard be allowed to do something similar with, say, Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions? This could be hugely useful at telling us how much risk, say, schoolteachers would be in from reopening schools

    And we could have data scientists collate every galactic datum to conclude the sun is unlikely to explode tomorrow. Do we really need science to study that which is plainly observable?

    There are so so many ‘essential workers’ that if this virus was a real threat they would be dropping like flies. Does anyone disagree?

    We don’t need more data than we have. We certainly don’t need weaker controls on our medical records, anonymized or not.

    • Replies: @Redman
    I would agree in principle. Not that wouldn't be better to have more date (e.g. like knowing what the actual infection rate is, rather than totally speculative estimates based on unknown predictive models). But that it seems we have sufficient data to make reasoned decisions for ourselves, without this totalitarian government lock down.

    The infection rate is clearly quite high. I actually suspect there are for than just the asymptomatic folks who didn't even know they had it. There are lots of people who have been quite sick that I know of in my neighborhood in Larchmont who aren't telling anyone since everyone is quarantining anyway. They're not going out of their way to get tested since it's a hassle and has no benefit.

    The value of having a "study" to compare the relative safety of getting one's haircut versus going back to law office, courtroom, bookstore, etc. seems fairly useless. We know enough not to go to places like Ishgl (crowded bars, clubs, etc.), but most other things (with masks and other sensible precautions) should be opened. Maybe its just me, but the reluctance to just start back up reminds me of Prufrock and his peach.
  48. @MB
    This Event Was A Coordinated Last Ditch Effort By The [Deep State], Moves & Countermoves: Dr. Shiva

    This guy says the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent @ 11:58.

    IOW those in charge of the programming for the electronic version of Plato's cave, aren't interested in putting themselves out of the propaganda business. Real facts and numbers would expose the scam; that this is one of the most brazen power grabs and a medical coup d'etat, for all practical purposes piggybacking on a seasonal virus epidemic.

    The biostat models - with mitigation included - are way overblown compared to the numbers coming back from the real world. Ferguson out of Imperial College went from 2-3 million fatalities to 100-200K and that is still way too high.
    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?
    One thousand ventilators needed in NY instead of three thousand that Cuomo was yelling about?
    And on it goes.

    The emperor has no clothes/Long live the emperor.

    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?

    There were 3,711 passengers and crew aboard, all of whom were tested. A total of 705 tested positive. If there have been 12 deaths, that would be a CFR and IFR (the same in this instance since the entire ship’s company was tested) of 1.7% and a morbidity rate of .32%.

    Apply that same morbidity rate to the entire country and you get a little over a million deaths, about 20 times a bad flu season. But since cruise passengers skew older than our general population and infectious diseases seem to run roughshod through the ships, I’m not sure how applicable these data are to our nation as a whole. Most of the deaths occurred before we tried some of the pharmaceutical treatments that appear to be helpful, so it’s possible that the death totals would be lower.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    Ionnadis ran that with age adjusted results. Article was in statnews.com. IFR under .1% or same as the flu.

    Also, you're considering a 100% saturation rate. Cruise ship had an infection rate of about 19% which is inline with the later Icelandic and German studies.

    (back of the napkin math) 350 million people times 19% infection rate times 0.1% infection rate = ~66,000 deaths. Or roughly same as a bad flu year.

    You only get millions of deaths with the same faulty assumptions Fauci and the rest of the fear brigade made.
  49. By the way, the way that this stinker has been handled will mean that “reopening The Economy” (shouldn’t that be “decriminalizing the usage of a basic human rights?”) will lead to HUUUUGE numbers of infections among the seriously at risk who will now emerge from their caves along with their grandchildren as “everything goes back to normal” and will suffer horribly.

    This should ALWAYS have been about quarantining ONLY TWO GROUPS, the at-risk-of-death and the sick

    AND IT OUGHT TO REMAIN about ONLY those two groups as well.

    But every old person I talk to thinks that Spring Has Sprung and our collective national nightmare will soon be over.

    They are wrong. And for them it is likely to just begin.

    This Quarantinism will have had many many good outcomes (The Bible calls for a generational Jubilee Year for a reason) but almost none of them related to either the public’s accurate understanding of the health issue and its remedies or about, in simple dollars and cents, obvious years of life saved. [To say nothing about lost quality of life for people who prefer interacting with an outside active world.]

    Heck, I’m pretty sure the excess weight we all gained will contribute to more healthy and young years lost than old and sick years that the quarantine saved.

    But again —- all the old and frail that we aimed to save will immediately be placed at risk as soon as The Economy ® is put back in charge of things thanks not obly to things that can not be helped but thanks to how misinformed they (and their wandering grandchildren) have been about the whole pseuro-purpose of both starting and now ending the quarantine now that “the worst has passed”.

    All of which could be mitigated if people who supported the quarantine in its current form (unlike in the form I have always advocated – for the at-risk + their Carers, and The Sick) would aknowledge their mistake and explain how “given time to think about it, we’re still going to run the only sort of quarantine we should have run in the first place”.

    Trump will never do that. Nor will any of the stern media faces or any of the alarmists or panickers but, Steve, can’t YOU do it?

  50. anonymous[245] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hail

    China will squelch any data research that even mildly implicates them. For crying out loud, they’ve already got CNN, the NY Times, and MSNBC spewing their propaganda.
     
    The commenter prime noticer has written about how one aspect of the Corona Doup D'Etat has a pro-China angle which is mixed-in with the D-Team / Coalition of the Fringes dominant faction in US domestic politics:

    i believe this virus has greatly accelerated the US cold civil war.

    1) the Democrats see that the Republicans are about to go down permanently, and are already making their early alliance with a major outside force, China, against their internal enemy, Republicans. this happens in most big civil wars, and is one of the telltale steps along the way. the Democrats are not only openly hostile to Trump and Republicans as always, deliberately getting in the way during a ‘crisis’, but are now siding with China in the domestic argument about the virus, an ally they had not previously taken. [....]
     

    Hey, you know what's funny?

    Try this:

    Try imagining the CNN-MSNBC-NYT-WashPost-InternetClickbaiter axis, and the rest of the MSM and their hangers-on, and so on, start drumbeating something about like the following by May or by summer, and keep up the pressure through fall, RussiaHoax-like:

    "The true origin of the devastating coronavirus -- or, as activists and community organizers in hard-hit places have been bravely calling it, the Trump Virus -- is probably in the US itself, not in China as previously reported by racists aligned with Trump's inner circle. An international campaign to sue the Trump administration for damages has begun..."

    How hard is it to imagine that becoming reality? Disturbingly not that hard.

    prime noticer was right.

    There are other columns and substantial comments here on TUR that credibly implicate Uncle Sam. It’s early, and we may never know what happened or why.

    ALL powerful institutions, especially governmental authorities, lie as needed to cover their backsides or scapegoat rivals. Why at this point are you so sympathetic to the one that you happen to live under?

  51. Anonymous[152] • Disclaimer says:
    @J Adelman
    What I can comprehend from the situation is that, Trump is gonna lose bug time in November.

    As a Liberal Democrat, I agree that Biden is not a good choice for nominee but I am very much certain that people will not tolerate a Second Term of this American Psycho in power nowadays.

    I hope Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and the Rust Belt will remove the Orange Buffon this time.

    You know as well as I do that Senilo isn’t going to be allowed to be President for any length of time. His ability to function is nil. He is more demented today than Reagan was on leaving office and it’s getting worse. He’ll be swapped out for some liberal squack who will in turn do as she is told by the globalists and central bankers. I think the plan is to get him elected and then it’s discovered he is not functional and must step down, or he will get the disease of convenience and pass away.

    Alternatively he may have a Howard Dean moment and be swapped out for The Rod or some other she-beast.

    • Replies: @the one they call Desanex
    Old, moldy, mildewed, decrepit, senile Joe Biden = Die, J. B.; Old, moldy, mildewed, decrepit, senile one
  52. We’ be been exposed as a banana republic with mountains of debt and little practical ability to function with natural adversity that is always sure to arrive. Silicon Valley doesn’t represent our bananas, rather Hollywood propaganda is our great export.

    There is a lot of talk about America’s technical might but it’s possible this great data crunching ability is just smoke and mirrors. Hidden figures indeed.

  53. The Department of Veterans Affairs did give access to not only all the records, but also to direct health exams and blood draws under the Million Veterans Project.

    Hmmmm….you all think. That name doesn’t sound quite American. Yes, Chinese “Universities” sponsored the project, hired family members of VA Senior Executive Service career employees as special consultants, and took all the data home.

    So far the only result published has been new ways of determining race through blood testing, without DNA.

  54. @Hodag
    Such a database exists. It resides in the Blue Cross/Blue shield Association. Technically BCBS is made up of 50 plus state associations, but it has data collection norms for each state (if you have BCBS Illinois and you break your leg in Texas, the medical provider has to charge you the BCBS Texas rate - this is hated by medical providers since they want to charge full price) . BCBS has full access to records (for billing).

    HIPPA has been waived for many things, like telemedicine. Frankly the feds could just take the data under eminent domain.

    This database will miss 90% of the cases since 90% of CV cases go unreported and undiagnosed. Half the people with CV do not know they have CV. Most who have symptoms do not bother getting tested, nor do they seek medical care.

    we have data on the deaths, which indicate the vast majority of deaths occur among the elderly and those with other health issues. The death statistics are not widely publicized, because it would end the panic. CNN has yet to report the death statistics from New York, which indicates 85% of the deaths are among the elderly. Instead they report on the few middle aged victims, most of them are obese and have health issues which go unreported. The news reports amplify the panic, by only reporting on the few victims in their 40s…they cannot find any victims younger than 35 years old.

    The government wants to keep the panic going…thus they misrepresent the data on deaths, counting all deaths as COVID-19 deaths while not informing the public that the risk to those under the age of 55 is almost too low to measure. The media also keeps the public from hearing about the success of the Trump Tonic , which doctors and hospitals are using to keep patients out of the ICU.

    everyday Steve Sailer seeks data on the occupations of the dead and hospitalized patients….when it is clear 90% of them are not employed. It is not too difficult to figure out which occupations are dangerous. Those working in hospitals will have more cases of CV than most professions, yet they continue to go to work each day. Retail workers are exposed to hundreds of people each day and will be expected to be at higher risk of getting sick. Those commuting on a subway each day will have a higher risk. Those with young children attending school will be at higher risk. Coronavirus is very contagious , similar to the common cold. Americans living in big cities with a high population density of people will get sick.

    12,000 NYC deaths means there were 1.2 million infected 3 weeks ago (if the death rate is 1%) and we would have 2 million infected by now in New York City, which is 25% of the NYC population. Yet only 125,000 New Yorkers are confirmed to have CV…Most likely 20% of the NY metro population has already had CV and recovered. The vast majority were never tested, never went to a doctor and recovered at home in a few days.

    • Agree: Redman
  55. @Brian Reilly
    What is ridiculous is imagining that the US government has any desire for the real data attendant to this whole sorry to be analyzed. Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.

    Someday, maybe soon, people will figure out how much our "leaders" in politics, business, and public service have been screwing us over and for how long. I hope there will be blood in the streets on that day. Real blood, not metaphorical or ironic.

    WHAT THE HELL?!

    The one thing that the crazies on bith sides have in common is calls for BLOOD ON THE STREETS.

    You call for blood because the disease wasn’t a big deal while Unz calls for hangings because it’s a really really big deal.

    Heck, even Scott Alexander’s recent post fantasized (admittedly less seriously than you) about heads on pikes…

    I have disagreed with Steve Sailer regarding this issue and how important it is for The Government to take away our human rights but one thing he has bit done much of (if any) was engage in Hatred against “those who might be wrong” about this whole Coronabusiness or its response.

    This demand for blood in the streets is horrible.

    Let me admit my biases. I regard Quarantinism as a religion/social movement and though I stand behind nobody in mocking the faith’s claimed beliefs, I think that religious movements spontaneously adapted (or even acquiesced to) by hundreds of millions of people in countries as different as America, China, Israel and Iran ought to be given some intellectual and enotional respect for its practices, if not for its kindergarten grade justifications.

    I also like that mankind has (4,000 years too late) come around to evolving the collective conscience that brought about a weak form of the biblical Jubilee year.

    Maybe that’s why I’m not fantasizing about blood flowing in response to something that millions upon millions of people (whether on one side or on the other) may have gotten wrong — or at least been caught up in the fire and fear of the religious movement.

    I’m not above fantasizing about punishments meeted out to either my few personal enemies over the years or to class enemies. I doubt it represents the best of me but it’s been there. And I’ve definitely been critical of Steve’s tone toward the enemies of this blog’s usual ideologies (though you will note that they are never against his own personal enemies).

    But even though Steve has been one of the early Panickers and clearly Has A Side, he has reported (perhaps slightly unfairly but) without hatred the theories and preferences and findings of those countries calling for freedom or for herd immunity, those scientists (pre-inquisition) who wondered about the massive aktons in response to almost no data, and findings that (as was always obvious to me and perhaps you) cheek kissings and choir singings spread the virus around the world while table touching did only about as often as lesbian sex spread hiv.

    Please stop the calls for hangings and blood – especially if you are on my team. (I doubt those who think this is a zionist plot for gold grabbing will consider my call to be in good faith, nor do I especially mind when they throw shit and cover themselves in gorey.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    This demand for blood in the streets is horrible.
     
    https://i.redd.it/4aa4pakk9gz11.jpg
  56. @Lugash
    LOL, nice.

    Speaking of the NSA, they've had our movements mapped in real time since at least 9/11. I'm sure they're monitoring how well we're following 'stay at home' orders. My state health department just started airing commercials explaining the difference between isolation and quarantine and how they can be 'mandated'. I think the feds are seeing the data that the lockdown is slipping and prepping for forced action.

    Lugash, We, the might-be-infected, great unwashed are not quite desperate enough. Not yet. What with rent forbearance, no courts to run eviction paper, mortgage forbearance, no truck/suv repo work, no work to go to, etc, we just aren’t quite worried, scared enough. The people running this global scam that is using Coronavirus® as a means to steal, ruin and enslave need us a bit more concerned so we will just do what they say without the need for actual shock troops, martial law, etc. They need us to embrace (through fear) the bars of our new jail cells.

    Next up is meat shortages. Then eggs and dairy, then vegetables. Soon, gas stations will be mostly closed, deliveries suspended. They need to keep planting difficult and restricted so any excess in the supply system can be used up, with much less coming in the new crop season. By 01 July or so, we will be frantic, they hope. I wonder how long they will allow liquor and (in states where it is legal) marijuana sales.

    Fascinating times.

  57. @Hail

    China will squelch any data research that even mildly implicates them. For crying out loud, they’ve already got CNN, the NY Times, and MSNBC spewing their propaganda.
     
    The commenter prime noticer has written about how one aspect of the Corona Doup D'Etat has a pro-China angle which is mixed-in with the D-Team / Coalition of the Fringes dominant faction in US domestic politics:

    i believe this virus has greatly accelerated the US cold civil war.

    1) the Democrats see that the Republicans are about to go down permanently, and are already making their early alliance with a major outside force, China, against their internal enemy, Republicans. this happens in most big civil wars, and is one of the telltale steps along the way. the Democrats are not only openly hostile to Trump and Republicans as always, deliberately getting in the way during a ‘crisis’, but are now siding with China in the domestic argument about the virus, an ally they had not previously taken. [....]
     

    Hey, you know what's funny?

    Try this:

    Try imagining the CNN-MSNBC-NYT-WashPost-InternetClickbaiter axis, and the rest of the MSM and their hangers-on, and so on, start drumbeating something about like the following by May or by summer, and keep up the pressure through fall, RussiaHoax-like:

    "The true origin of the devastating coronavirus -- or, as activists and community organizers in hard-hit places have been bravely calling it, the Trump Virus -- is probably in the US itself, not in China as previously reported by racists aligned with Trump's inner circle. An international campaign to sue the Trump administration for damages has begun..."

    How hard is it to imagine that becoming reality? Disturbingly not that hard.

    prime noticer was right.

    100%.

  58. @R.G. Camara
    I agree, except that I would bet good money on the idea that there does exist some central repository of medical data----it's just top secret. Given the Patriot Act and our computerized society, I am confident the NSA or CIA or some other Deep State assholes have all of our medical records in a large mainframe, just waiting to be cross-referenced for whatever reason their evil little hearts demand.

    I didn’t expect to defend the integrity of our intelligence agencies, but—partly due to HIPAA (another thing I didn’t expect to defend)—medical office systems are among the hardest domestic hacking targets. And, as per my previous comment, even if you do hack them, what do you get? Not much that is useful.

    Well, I guess I’m not really defending anyone’s “integrity”. It’s just that medical records are largely crappy records, so as a target, licit or illicit, they are much less valuable in practice than in theory. If you want to analyze/embarrass one individual, medical records could be useful, but for anything large scale, the data acquiring, scrubbing, interpreting, and analyzing costs quickly become prohibitive. Even the NSA has a budget.

    • Agree: Barnard
    • Replies: @R.G. Camara

    If you want to analyze/embarrass one individual, medical records could be useful, but for anything large scale, the data acquiring, scrubbing, interpreting, and analyzing costs quickly become prohibitive. Even the NSA has a budget.
     
    First, as, you note, embarrassment.

    Second, recon. A hostile has a heart condition? Keep having agents and loud noises scare him out of nowhere.

    Is he being treated for cancer? Make sure he can't sleep at night, and overload him with work stress until he quits or gets so jacked up on speed/caffeine to keep him going that he does something reckless or falls asleep at the wheel.

    Diabetic? Dilute his insulin so he starts to have headaches, fatigue, etc.

    Or is he taking Viagra suddenly, and yet his wife is still frustrated? He's got a mistress---now you have leverage.

    Or did he spend a ton of money at a plastic surgeons recently? Vanity, he's looking good for someone.

    Did he get treated at an urgent care far from his home a few times in the last few years? Now you have a location for his safe house/"off the grid" home.

    And don't forget---with the records, you also know who is regular doctor is and the nurses and staff who are close to him physically when he's most vulnerable. They can be bribed or threatened to get people in or to prescribe bad medication/treatment to mess with your guy.

    This isn't that hard. Your medical conditions and treatments give away your weaknesses, in more ways than one.
  59. @Anonymous
    Why isn’t Steve writing about restricting immigration anymore?

    There has never been more reason to end immigration to the United States than now, with the country facing skyrocketing unemployment as well infection from a virus that came from a foreign land?

    Every third article of his here should be a pitch to bringing a halt to decades of ruinous mass immigration.

    BECAUSE WE ARE WINNING THAT FIGHT, AND BRINGING ATTENTION TO IT WILL AWAKEN ENEMY RESISTENCE.

    Have you never played poker or had a disagreement with your heterosexual significant other?

    This one is obvious and for as long as Steve can discipline himself to refarin from finding cherry-picked pro-immigs he should hold that discipline.

    America very very very agrees with us. Making ANY noise now or for the foreseeable future would be uber super dumb.

    Even in response to provication.

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    Moshe, I like the way you think.
    , @Anonymous

    America very very very agrees with us. Making ANY noise now or for the foreseeable future would be uber super dumb.
     
    Right. Let’s all keep quiet about immigration until the health and jobs crisis is a distant memory. That’ll be the moment of stasis to try to overturn the inertia a half century old policy.

    If what you write were true, we would be seeing the president, congresspersons, and media pundits out calling for repatriation and for rolling back Hart-Celler. But we don’t.

    Steve is missing the opportunity of his lifetime.

    It’s now or never. Paging Rahm Emanuel.
  60. @anon
    No systematic data records who caught the virus, when they caught it, what health effects they suffered because of it, and their health and demographic backgrounds. Indeed, the powers that be have barely even starting the process of doing representative sampling.

    this will mean that travel patterns, proclivities, etc, will need to be tracked. For gay men, eg. who do what they do, will they be alright with having their lifestyle tracked to monitor a very deadly virus?..

    "butt covering"? try butt exposure...

    Uh-oh, deBlasio says June’s “Pride Parade” may now be in danger

  61. @MB
    This Event Was A Coordinated Last Ditch Effort By The [Deep State], Moves & Countermoves: Dr. Shiva

    This guy says the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent @ 11:58.

    IOW those in charge of the programming for the electronic version of Plato's cave, aren't interested in putting themselves out of the propaganda business. Real facts and numbers would expose the scam; that this is one of the most brazen power grabs and a medical coup d'etat, for all practical purposes piggybacking on a seasonal virus epidemic.

    The biostat models - with mitigation included - are way overblown compared to the numbers coming back from the real world. Ferguson out of Imperial College went from 2-3 million fatalities to 100-200K and that is still way too high.
    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?
    One thousand ventilators needed in NY instead of three thousand that Cuomo was yelling about?
    And on it goes.

    The emperor has no clothes/Long live the emperor.

    Shiva is a self-promoting jackass who has been discredited many times.

    • Replies: @MB
    No doubt/entirely possible that Shiva is a self promoting BSer. I don't know.

    But for all practical purposes this event crashed the economy, Gate's plan to microchip vaccinate the universe is now mainstreamed and dissent is being suppressed because "safety".

    If this was baseball, that's a great batting average.
    , @Redman
    Any cites to such discrediting? Just asking.
  62. @Anonymous
    Hypnotoad is exactly right. We should (and could) have a database of every single proven Covid infection and death complete with demographics, comorbidities and basic clinical course. It could be freely available to all researchers, which would quickly give us a deep, likely profound insight to the disease. But I don't blame HIPPA; HIPPA would *usually* be an obstacle to this sort of thing, but in pandemic mode you could easily convince Congress to grant the necessary exceptions. In fact it's amazing how quickly lawmakers and bureaucrats are brushing aside the usual healthcare regulations; paperwork that would normally take months now takes minutes. I hate HIPPA, but it's not the reason we don't have this database. Blame our politicians for not having the imagination and intelligence to push for this; but more than that, blame the medical and public establishments, most of whom would rather tweet and give press conferences than actually try to conquer this disease.

    Yes, but these practices should have been automatic because they should have been put in place in response to the last “pandemic” scare.

    So why didn’t that happen?

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  63. @Hail

    Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.
     
    "As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu."
    -- Dr. Knut Wittkowski, writing April 15, commenting on the coronavirus pandemic.

    With all kinds of data now pointing to the likelihood <0.1% fatality rate (when the numbers are disentangled) in most places, perhaps slightly higher in the very hardest hit localities (and half of victims now reported to be nursing home patients; almost all the remainder being elderly or very ill individuals), the media and the "media-run state" desperately want to cover up analysis.

    Even more embarrassing than how minor this pandemic actually is/was in historical terms (consider the nuclear-war-like response) is the fact that "the CoronaPanic" looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus. This is a textbook example of why not to create and fan the flames of a Panic.

    The policy response has been so irrational that I believe future generations are likely to remember it either as "the Corona Coup D'Etat of 2020" or as the "Corona Mass-Hysteria Event of 2020." Both are probably correct, to a degree; we'll have to wait to see how it plays out, which narrative wins out, and by how much, in collective memory by say 2030.

    “is the fact that “the CoronaPanic” looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus.”

    Can you amplify this statement? I’m genuinely interested.

    • Replies: @moshe
    I assume he means heart attacks and other things that people didn't go to the hospital for when they should have.

    I personally wonder how many young and healthy years will be lost due to quarantine- induced international weight gain, versus how many elderly and frail years were saved.

    Then again, motorists and pedestrians have died and been injured in smaller numbers, etc.
    , @Hail
    I wrote about this here:

    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/models-the-logic-of-failure/#comment-3838440

    (The first part of the post shows that Weeks 1 to 12 had been unusually mild for deaths in the UK, a net 5,000 below the norm, one of the mildest flu seasons in years, and that observed coronavirus-attributed deaths up through Weeks 13 and 14 are an upward-correction to get back to the longterm baseline.)

    Firm data suggests a majority of excess deaths are attributable to the 'Panic' and not to the 'Virus' in the UK:

    On observed deaths that are attributable to the Panic and not to the Virus

    [...] The UK’s Week 14 data release suggests that...half or more of the rise in deaths may be attributable to the ‘lockdown’ policy and the panic, and not to the virus.

    The UK’s Week 14, five-year-avg. deaths: 10,305;
    The UK’s 2020 Week 14 total deaths were 16,387,
    …of which, listed as “COVID-19 deaths”: 3,475

    That is +6,082 deaths over the long-run average,
    but only 3,475 of the deaths are attributed to COVID-19,
    which leaves 2,607 marginal deaths unaccounted for [...]

    How does one account for these non-COVID marginal deaths? I cannot be the only one to notice this. The way Coronavirus discourse works, some people sound a lonely alarm about this kind of finding and no one pays attention to them, as at the height of a Panic there is no ‘market’ in the media for contrary views. Like anti-war voices during the height of war fever, such people are seen as perhaps unpatriotic in some way.

    The most reasonable explanation I can see is that the Panic itself caused these 2,607 extra deaths. There are reports that people with heart attacks or other serious problems are too scared to seek treatment (the same is being reported in NYC) and are dying unnecessarily. This is precisely the reason one never wants to promote panic [...]

    Assuming there is at least some degree of a “deaths with the virus vs. deaths from the virus” problem in the UK data (as elsewhere), it’s possible [nay, likely] that there have already been more marginal deaths in the UK due to the panic over the virus, than due to the virus itself. And this, long before the recession starts to bite…
    _________________________

  64. @Anonymous
    Hypnotoad is exactly right. We should (and could) have a database of every single proven Covid infection and death complete with demographics, comorbidities and basic clinical course. It could be freely available to all researchers, which would quickly give us a deep, likely profound insight to the disease. But I don't blame HIPPA; HIPPA would *usually* be an obstacle to this sort of thing, but in pandemic mode you could easily convince Congress to grant the necessary exceptions. In fact it's amazing how quickly lawmakers and bureaucrats are brushing aside the usual healthcare regulations; paperwork that would normally take months now takes minutes. I hate HIPPA, but it's not the reason we don't have this database. Blame our politicians for not having the imagination and intelligence to push for this; but more than that, blame the medical and public establishments, most of whom would rather tweet and give press conferences than actually try to conquer this disease.

    Such a database would not be helpful today, since it would miss 95% of the CV cases. Proven infections are a small percentage of CV cases , people with mild cases are not getting tested, so the data on confirmed cases is not very beneficial and would distort the true scope and dangers of this virus.

    We know the demographics of those dying from COVID-19 , the elderly, the obese and those with existing health problems are 96% of the deaths. The median age at death is 70 for COVID-19.

    The death statistics from New York indicates the risk of dying from CV is About .2% for those under the age of 50 who contract Coronavirus. The CDC and government health leaders are deceiving the public about the risks , just as they did in the eighties about the risk of getting AIDS. We cannot trust Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx , because they are known liars. We cannot trust the media , they want to panic the public and destroy the economy. They hide the statistics from the public , just as they did with HIV statistics. They should be warning the obese and encourage Americans to exercise and get outside for some healthy sun.

  65. @Anonymous
    Hypnotoad is exactly right. We should (and could) have a database of every single proven Covid infection and death complete with demographics, comorbidities and basic clinical course. It could be freely available to all researchers, which would quickly give us a deep, likely profound insight to the disease. But I don't blame HIPPA; HIPPA would *usually* be an obstacle to this sort of thing, but in pandemic mode you could easily convince Congress to grant the necessary exceptions. In fact it's amazing how quickly lawmakers and bureaucrats are brushing aside the usual healthcare regulations; paperwork that would normally take months now takes minutes. I hate HIPPA, but it's not the reason we don't have this database. Blame our politicians for not having the imagination and intelligence to push for this; but more than that, blame the medical and public establishments, most of whom would rather tweet and give press conferences than actually try to conquer this disease.

    Such a database would not be helpful today, since it would miss 95% of the CV cases. Proven infections are a small percentage of CV cases , people with mild cases are not getting tested, so the data on confirmed cases is not very beneficial and would distort the true scope and dangers of this virus.

    We know the demographics of those dying from COVID-19 , the elderly, the obese and those with existing health problems are 96% of the deaths. The median age at death is 70 for COVID-19.

    The death statistics from New York indicates the risk of dying from CV is About .2% for those under the age of 50 who contract Coronavirus. The CDC and government health leaders are deceiving the public about the risks , just as they did in the eighties about the risk of getting AIDS. We cannot trust Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx , because they are known liars. We cannot trust the media , they want to panic the public and destroy the economy. They hide the statistics from the public , just as they did with HIV statistics. They should be warning the obese and encourage Americans to exercise and get outside for some healthy sun.

    • Disagree: James Speaks
  66. @JohnnyWalker123
    https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1250954675416899592

    https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1250959367291183110

    https://twitter.com/RuckCohlchez/status/1250960027101171712

    The warning signs were there. Brooks April 2nd column was about how he is mentally exhausted every day by 5 PM. Perhaps the NY Times should relieve David of his obligations to them and replace him with a columnist who exclusively writes about her hair.

  67. @Anonymous
    Wow, America just had 4,591 deaths in the past 24 hours. 2 days ago, it was 2,400 deaths, and 3 weeks ago it was ~1,000 deaths day. The virus is progressing at an exponential function.

    COVID-19 is making it very clear that it is not one bit scared of the superpower, and appears to have chosen the U.S to make it's statement about how weak the human species is, and who truly runs the planet.

    Viruses and bacteria constitute 98% of the entire biomass of the planet. This is their planet. We just live in it.

  68. @Eagle Eye

    The data re kungflu are unusable ...
     
    The solution is simple, if any group of researchers REALLY wants to get to the bottom of this:

    - Offer free TRIPLE TESTING TM to a large random sample of individuals (at least 10,000 individuals selected to be generally representative of the U.S.) Many individuals are likely to volunteer simply to benefit from free, ANONYMOUS testing, including antibody testing that indicates possible immunity (another issue we need to verify).

    - Testing is conducted anonymously. Subjects will be given free access to the data and may VOLUNTEER to share individual results. Go over the heads of DHS and state bureaucrats and contact individuals DIRECTLY.

    - Subjects are offered further incentives (e.g. $200 or free medical care for disease-related issues within 6 months) in return for permission to access all their health records for research purposes.

    TRIPLE TESTING TM: combined infection (nasal swab) testing and antibody testing at first appointment, re-testing for infection e.g. 4 weeks later.

    Further longitudinal studies can be conducted on some individuals, e.g. to monitor disease immediately after infection (which may only be detected a few days later).

    Santa Clara County preliminary study is back. 2.5 to 4% estimate of the entire population that has already had it and recovered. Or about 50x the confirmed cases now.

    Obviously, if that holds true across the country, then the IFR is considerably lower than the numbers being thrown around.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    In that study, the "unadjusted" rate of positives was only 1.5%. Only by demographic extrapolation was it increased to ~3%. Of course such extrapolation is something of a mug's game at this point.

    And that doesn't strike me as being the weakest point in the study.

    If you have only 1.5% positive, how can you possibly be confident that antibody tests that were only recently developed could be so free of false positives that you could rely on this number to make extraordinary extrapolations to the population at large?

    The researchers rely on some mix of the claims of manufacturers of specificity, and some local testing they did themselves. But as best as I can see, the number of subjects involved in both cases is far too low to have any real confidence in the claims of specificity -- not to mention the obvious incentive manufacturers have to exaggerate their results. My reading is that the number of subjects involved in both cases is at most in the low hundreds, and should be in the many thousands to have real confidence in the the 1.5% range.

    , @res
    Paper is at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

    Abstract

    Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
     

    So on April 3-4 they estimate between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County. Here is the Santa Clara County COVID-19 dashboard:
    https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

    On that we see 1094 cases on 4/3 and 1148 on 4/4. In the paper text they base their comparisons on 4/1:


    Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study.
     
    We have one advantage over the paper. We can look up the number of deaths on 4/16 and see it is 69 (there were 4 that day). That would give an IFR range of 0.085% to 0.14%. Even with some increase if the infection-death lag is three weeks that is still far lower than estimates in common use (I have been estimating 1% with a decent chance of 0.5%). Here is the paper's take on IFR.

    We can use our prevalence estimates to approximate the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 in Santa Clara County. As of April 10, 2020, 50 people have died of COVID-19 in the County, with an average increase of 6% daily in the number of deaths. If our estimates of 48,000-81,000 infections represent the cumulative total on April 1, and we project deaths to April 22 (a 3 week lag from time of infection to death22), we estimate about 100 deaths in the county. A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%. If antibodies take longer than 3 days to appear, if the average duration from case identification to death is less than 3 weeks, or if the epidemic wave has peaked and growth in deaths is less than 6% daily, then the infection fatality rate would be lower. These straightforward estimations of infection fatality rate fail to account for age structure and changing treatment approaches to COVID-19. Nevertheless, our prevalence estimates can be used to update existing fatality rates given the large upwards revision of under-ascertainment.
     
    Now for some caveats (emphasis mine).

    This study had several limitations. First, our sampling strategy selected for members of Santa Clara County with access to Facebook and a car to attend drive-through testing sites. This resulted in an overrepresentation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64, and an under-representation of Hispanic and Asian populations, relative to our community. Those imbalances were partly addressed by weighting our sample population by zip code, race, and sex to match the county. We did not account for age imbalance in our sample, and could not ascertain representativeness of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in homeless populations. Other biases, such as bias favoring individuals in good health capable of attending our testing sites, or bias favoring those with prior COVID-like illnesses seeking antibody confirmation are also possible. The overall effect of such biases is hard to ascertain.
     
    I think the biggest weakness is the age imbalance issue. To my mind that invalidates the IFR conclusions above. We already knew the fatality rate was low for younger people. Table 1 gives demographic data for both the adjusted and unadjusted sample as well as the county. We see that the adjusted sample is underweighted almost 3x for over 65. And the next bucket is 19-64 so we can't estimate the weighting for ages 50-64. Take a look at how different the mortality rates are for those ages in these estimates:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

    AGE | DEATH RATE all cases
    80+ years old 14.8%
    70-79 years old 8.0%
    60-69 years old 3.6%
    50-59 years old 1.3%
    40-49 years old 0.4%
    30-39 years old 0.2%
    20-29 years old 0.2%
    10-19 years old 0.2%
    0-9 years old _ no fatalities
     
    The paper sample also overweights women (link above estimates 1.7% death rate for women vs. 2.8% for men), but the sample adjustment should take care of this.

    (thinking about this some more during the edit window, as long as the infection rate is similar between the age groups this may not be as big a deal as I think)

    TLDR: This paper is suggestive about IFR, but far from definitive. Age unrepresentativeness is a fatal flaw for that analysis. Infection rate does not depend on that effect (age mortality rate differences) though so those estimates are likely better.

    P.S. The author's failure to break down age demographics more finely than they did really makes me question their commitment to getting a good estimate of IFR. I am disappointed in them.

    P.P.S. Ron, if you see this I would be interested in your take.

  69. The available data prove the lethality of kungflu is less than a typical cold or flu even when you include the massively inflated body counts fueled by Uncle Samantha’s bounty of $13,000 per kungflu diagnosis.

    It’s time to end this hoax perpetrated by Democratic governors, the hoaxstream media, and the fake AIDS doctor who never learned to speak properly.

    • Replies: @Faraday's Bobcat
    Curious to know your explanation for the 2x-6x excess death rates in some localities. Multiple huge bus accidents nobody noticed?
    , @Anonymous

    Uncle Samantha’s bounty of $13,000 per kungflu diagnosis.
     
    Do you have a citation?
  70. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @J Adelman
    What I can comprehend from the situation is that, Trump is gonna lose bug time in November.

    As a Liberal Democrat, I agree that Biden is not a good choice for nominee but I am very much certain that people will not tolerate a Second Term of this American Psycho in power nowadays.

    I hope Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and the Rust Belt will remove the Orange Buffon this time.

    Very little change likely. Same 4 or 5 states. Think the Michigan governor is going to cost Biden that state.

    Arizona all but unaffected by Covid.

    Biden has to leave his rented mansion if he has any chance. 6 months to go and most decisions will be made by football season kickoff.

    Trump still significantly better than even money in the active markets.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

    • Agree: Ron Mexico
  71. @Hail

    Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.
     
    "As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu."
    -- Dr. Knut Wittkowski, writing April 15, commenting on the coronavirus pandemic.

    With all kinds of data now pointing to the likelihood <0.1% fatality rate (when the numbers are disentangled) in most places, perhaps slightly higher in the very hardest hit localities (and half of victims now reported to be nursing home patients; almost all the remainder being elderly or very ill individuals), the media and the "media-run state" desperately want to cover up analysis.

    Even more embarrassing than how minor this pandemic actually is/was in historical terms (consider the nuclear-war-like response) is the fact that "the CoronaPanic" looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus. This is a textbook example of why not to create and fan the flames of a Panic.

    The policy response has been so irrational that I believe future generations are likely to remember it either as "the Corona Coup D'Etat of 2020" or as the "Corona Mass-Hysteria Event of 2020." Both are probably correct, to a degree; we'll have to wait to see how it plays out, which narrative wins out, and by how much, in collective memory by say 2030.

    the Corona Coup D’Etat of 2020

    Yes, because Russia Collusion, Stormy Daniels, and the Ukriane “whistleblower” all failed.

    • Replies: @Hail
    Has anyone been following non-corona news coverage, if any, from the US MSM? Is anyone still talking about Russia?
  72. @Lugash
    LOL, nice.

    Speaking of the NSA, they've had our movements mapped in real time since at least 9/11. I'm sure they're monitoring how well we're following 'stay at home' orders. My state health department just started airing commercials explaining the difference between isolation and quarantine and how they can be 'mandated'. I think the feds are seeing the data that the lockdown is slipping and prepping for forced action.

    Speaking of the NSA, they’ve had our movements mapped in real time since at least 9/11.

    They’ve been trying since then. Since ~2010 for sure. The invention of the smart phone was a godsend to them (and every other gov. in the world, as we’re seeing).

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    E911 - triangulation and/or GPS location tracking of all cell phones, supposedly for use in "emergencies" has been mandatory since late 1990s.

    The supposed "emergency" scenario is that you were in a car crash etc. and DON'T KNOW WHERE YOU ARE.

  73. Is it clear how long people who have the virus remain contagious? I see 72 hours after no fever or 14 days or six weeks.

  74. In the current crisis, why can’t some Big Data wizard be allowed to do something similar with, say, Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions?

    Because inserting hard data into the discussion might interfere with parties not letting a manufactured crisis go to waste.

  75. MB says: • Website
    @Faraday's Bobcat
    Shiva is a self-promoting jackass who has been discredited many times.

    No doubt/entirely possible that Shiva is a self promoting BSer. I don’t know.

    But for all practical purposes this event crashed the economy, Gate’s plan to microchip vaccinate the universe is now mainstreamed and dissent is being suppressed because “safety”.

    If this was baseball, that’s a great batting average.

    • Replies: @Redman
    Exactly. Sounds almost as good as the Houston Astros' "batting average" while they knew what pitches were being thrown.
  76. Special Scientists are protected from the inconvenience of Replication by virtue of their Special Access to Data. Moreover the whole issue of “anonymization” has been applied to restrict access to previously-available county-level time-series going back many decades because there are inferential ways around that — particularly when government enforced heterogeneity (mendaciously called “diversity”) means there will always be outliers in any county that can be identified in the data. So that means Special Scientists actually can identify people in many cases.

    But this is all a red-herring given Algorithmic Information Theory, which states that the best model of society, given a fixed data set, is the one that most-compresses it without loss.

    So “data-driven social policy” can select the best model of society by publishing, not the government’s data, but it’s schema and then accepting submission of published models of society in the form of open source lossless data compressors. The compressor producing the smallest executable archive of the government’s data is the one embodying the best model of society.

    No one need have access to the data but those setting up the government’s computers to run the submissions. Yes, this means those individuals must be trusted to accurately report the size of the compressed data and yes there are costs associated with running the compressors that must be paid for by those submitting models. So what? Is that any worse than having the foundation of science in replication being subverted by Special People from Special Institutions being lavished with Special Prestige based on Special Access to the data?

  77. @Hail

    the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent
     
    The Corona Coup D'Etat.

    If not the Great 2020 Panic Plannedemic Psyop, which is not as short and sweet.

    cheers

  78. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    The available data prove the lethality of kungflu is less than a typical cold or flu even when you include the massively inflated body counts fueled by Uncle Samantha's bounty of $13,000 per kungflu diagnosis.

    It's time to end this hoax perpetrated by Democratic governors, the hoaxstream media, and the fake AIDS doctor who never learned to speak properly.

    Curious to know your explanation for the 2x-6x excess death rates in some localities. Multiple huge bus accidents nobody noticed?

  79. In the current crisis, why can’t some Big Data wizard be allowed to do something similar with, say, Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions?

    The government could fund the Kaiser Foundation to look at its own data. Kaiser does epidemiological studies of patient data all the time. It has an army of statisticians to help them determine most effective treatment and prevention regimes.

  80. Anonymous[683] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    The available data prove the lethality of kungflu is less than a typical cold or flu even when you include the massively inflated body counts fueled by Uncle Samantha's bounty of $13,000 per kungflu diagnosis.

    It's time to end this hoax perpetrated by Democratic governors, the hoaxstream media, and the fake AIDS doctor who never learned to speak properly.

    Uncle Samantha’s bounty of $13,000 per kungflu diagnosis.

    Do you have a citation?

  81. In the meantime some outfit from NY state is measuring “stay at home compliance” (by counties) by tracking cell phone GPS motion. They claim they’re dealing in statistical metadata only. I’ve got some nice beachfront property in West Virginia that I’m looking to unload cheap.

  82. @Polynikes
    Santa Clara County preliminary study is back. 2.5 to 4% estimate of the entire population that has already had it and recovered. Or about 50x the confirmed cases now.

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1251170511557722115?s=20


    Obviously, if that holds true across the country, then the IFR is considerably lower than the numbers being thrown around.

    In that study, the “unadjusted” rate of positives was only 1.5%. Only by demographic extrapolation was it increased to ~3%. Of course such extrapolation is something of a mug’s game at this point.

    And that doesn’t strike me as being the weakest point in the study.

    If you have only 1.5% positive, how can you possibly be confident that antibody tests that were only recently developed could be so free of false positives that you could rely on this number to make extraordinary extrapolations to the population at large?

    The researchers rely on some mix of the claims of manufacturers of specificity, and some local testing they did themselves. But as best as I can see, the number of subjects involved in both cases is far too low to have any real confidence in the claims of specificity — not to mention the obvious incentive manufacturers have to exaggerate their results. My reading is that the number of subjects involved in both cases is at most in the low hundreds, and should be in the many thousands to have real confidence in the the 1.5% range.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    There's the additional potential issue with the fact that it is a volunteer study. I gather they did a number of things to get a representative sample, but I don't know how they might correct for the possibility that volunteers would be more likely to have worries about having the virus, and that more often than for others this would be justified.

    Again, 1.5% is a very small number, and small defects can make a big difference.
    , @Travis
    more likely the antibody testing will have more false negatives than false positives.

    6% of those who have recovered from CV have not produced any antibodies. Most young people have strong enough immune systems to destroy the virus without the need to make antibodies.The study found that elderly and middle-aged people developed higher levels of antibodies than younger patients. 90% of the patients who did not develop coronavirus antibodies were 40 years old or younger. https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recovered-coronavirus-patients-antibodies-2020-4

    Would be interesting to test for antibodies in NYC. With 12,000 New Yorkers dead of CV they must have had 3 million infected already if the death rate is ~.5%. Consequently 30% of New Yorkers have already recovered form a bout with coronavirus and 25% probably have antibodies protecting them from reinfection.

    , @Polynikes

    I think the biggest weakness is the age imbalance issue. To my mind that invalidates the IFR conclusions above.
     
    That's a fair point. Seems like that is going to be an issue with nearly all the tests all over the country given the immediacy with which everything is being rolled out. All the numbers so far are "dirty," and people are coming up with the best they can. We'll have a real good handle on this thing 5 years from now. A lot of good that does anyone today.

    But the regular flu IFR is based on similar style estimates. It seems to me that this type of analysis is more fair and more useful when making those comparisons than just saying well in Springfield County we had 10 cases and 1 death so the IFR must be 10%. The latter is what got fed into much of the doomsday models and lead even stringent scientists off the deep end.
  83. @candid_observer
    In that study, the "unadjusted" rate of positives was only 1.5%. Only by demographic extrapolation was it increased to ~3%. Of course such extrapolation is something of a mug's game at this point.

    And that doesn't strike me as being the weakest point in the study.

    If you have only 1.5% positive, how can you possibly be confident that antibody tests that were only recently developed could be so free of false positives that you could rely on this number to make extraordinary extrapolations to the population at large?

    The researchers rely on some mix of the claims of manufacturers of specificity, and some local testing they did themselves. But as best as I can see, the number of subjects involved in both cases is far too low to have any real confidence in the claims of specificity -- not to mention the obvious incentive manufacturers have to exaggerate their results. My reading is that the number of subjects involved in both cases is at most in the low hundreds, and should be in the many thousands to have real confidence in the the 1.5% range.

    There’s the additional potential issue with the fact that it is a volunteer study. I gather they did a number of things to get a representative sample, but I don’t know how they might correct for the possibility that volunteers would be more likely to have worries about having the virus, and that more often than for others this would be justified.

    Again, 1.5% is a very small number, and small defects can make a big difference.

  84. Anon[481] • Disclaimer says:
    @J Adelman
    What I can comprehend from the situation is that, Trump is gonna lose bug time in November.

    As a Liberal Democrat, I agree that Biden is not a good choice for nominee but I am very much certain that people will not tolerate a Second Term of this American Psycho in power nowadays.

    I hope Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and the Rust Belt will remove the Orange Buffon this time.

    Trump has handled the pandemic better than any democrat would have.

    Biden did not approve of the stoppage of flights from China. Nancy Pelosi and De Blasio initially responded with “hug a funky chinaman from funky Chinatown!”

    Nancy “let them eat ice cream” is holding up further funding of small biz aid.

    To hell with the Democrat Party.

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane
  85. res says:
    @Polynikes
    Santa Clara County preliminary study is back. 2.5 to 4% estimate of the entire population that has already had it and recovered. Or about 50x the confirmed cases now.

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1251170511557722115?s=20


    Obviously, if that holds true across the country, then the IFR is considerably lower than the numbers being thrown around.

    Paper is at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

    Abstract

    Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer’s data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

    So on April 3-4 they estimate between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County. Here is the Santa Clara County COVID-19 dashboard:
    https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

    On that we see 1094 cases on 4/3 and 1148 on 4/4. In the paper text they base their comparisons on 4/1:

    Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study.

    We have one advantage over the paper. We can look up the number of deaths on 4/16 and see it is 69 (there were 4 that day). That would give an IFR range of 0.085% to 0.14%. Even with some increase if the infection-death lag is three weeks that is still far lower than estimates in common use (I have been estimating 1% with a decent chance of 0.5%). Here is the paper’s take on IFR.

    We can use our prevalence estimates to approximate the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 in Santa Clara County. As of April 10, 2020, 50 people have died of COVID-19 in the County, with an average increase of 6% daily in the number of deaths. If our estimates of 48,000-81,000 infections represent the cumulative total on April 1, and we project deaths to April 22 (a 3 week lag from time of infection to death22), we estimate about 100 deaths in the county. A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%. If antibodies take longer than 3 days to appear, if the average duration from case identification to death is less than 3 weeks, or if the epidemic wave has peaked and growth in deaths is less than 6% daily, then the infection fatality rate would be lower. These straightforward estimations of infection fatality rate fail to account for age structure and changing treatment approaches to COVID-19. Nevertheless, our prevalence estimates can be used to update existing fatality rates given the large upwards revision of under-ascertainment.

    Now for some caveats (emphasis mine).

    This study had several limitations. First, our sampling strategy selected for members of Santa Clara County with access to Facebook and a car to attend drive-through testing sites. This resulted in an overrepresentation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64, and an under-representation of Hispanic and Asian populations, relative to our community. Those imbalances were partly addressed by weighting our sample population by zip code, race, and sex to match the county. We did not account for age imbalance in our sample, and could not ascertain representativeness of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in homeless populations. Other biases, such as bias favoring individuals in good health capable of attending our testing sites, or bias favoring those with prior COVID-like illnesses seeking antibody confirmation are also possible. The overall effect of such biases is hard to ascertain.

    I think the biggest weakness is the age imbalance issue. To my mind that invalidates the IFR conclusions above. We already knew the fatality rate was low for younger people. Table 1 gives demographic data for both the adjusted and unadjusted sample as well as the county. We see that the adjusted sample is underweighted almost 3x for over 65. And the next bucket is 19-64 so we can’t estimate the weighting for ages 50-64. Take a look at how different the mortality rates are for those ages in these estimates:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

    AGE | DEATH RATE all cases
    80+ years old 14.8%
    70-79 years old 8.0%
    60-69 years old 3.6%
    50-59 years old 1.3%
    40-49 years old 0.4%
    30-39 years old 0.2%
    20-29 years old 0.2%
    10-19 years old 0.2%
    0-9 years old _ no fatalities

    The paper sample also overweights women (link above estimates 1.7% death rate for women vs. 2.8% for men), but the sample adjustment should take care of this.

    (thinking about this some more during the edit window, as long as the infection rate is similar between the age groups this may not be as big a deal as I think)

    TLDR: This paper is suggestive about IFR, but far from definitive. Age unrepresentativeness is a fatal flaw for that analysis. Infection rate does not depend on that effect (age mortality rate differences) though so those estimates are likely better.

    P.S. The author’s failure to break down age demographics more finely than they did really makes me question their commitment to getting a good estimate of IFR. I am disappointed in them.

    P.P.S. Ron, if you see this I would be interested in your take.

    • Replies: @Polynikes

    I think the biggest weakness is the age imbalance issue. To my mind that invalidates the IFR conclusions above.
     
    If I'm reading the preview right, the IFR is just an extrapolation from existing deaths onto their new number of people infected (estimated from their study). Remember IFR is a fraction where the Numerator = deaths and Denominator = people infected.

    The deaths didn't change in their study. It came from publicly available data. So there is no issue with age adjusting the deaths. The numerator in the IFR stays the same. But instead of using confirmed tests of actively infected in the county (a relatively small number), they used the total number of people that had been infected by projecting their anti-body tests out to the entire population. This is how the regular flu IFR is calculated, btw.

    The age break down would have nothing to do with the deaths, but instead is their attempt to normalize their sample so it mirrors the actual population demographics when they extrapolate out the number of infected (again, not deaths). For example, they are simply saying in our study 50% of the applicants were females, aged 19-65. In the total population only 35% of the people are females aged 19-65. So we've adjusted our infection rate, accordingly. (numbers not precise, just an example)

    This is far from conclusive, obviously. But it is one of the first attempts at getting at the true number infected here in the states. Surprisingly, their 3% comes in pretty well below the 10-15% prevalence found in the German and Icelandic studies.
  86. @candid_observer
    In that study, the "unadjusted" rate of positives was only 1.5%. Only by demographic extrapolation was it increased to ~3%. Of course such extrapolation is something of a mug's game at this point.

    And that doesn't strike me as being the weakest point in the study.

    If you have only 1.5% positive, how can you possibly be confident that antibody tests that were only recently developed could be so free of false positives that you could rely on this number to make extraordinary extrapolations to the population at large?

    The researchers rely on some mix of the claims of manufacturers of specificity, and some local testing they did themselves. But as best as I can see, the number of subjects involved in both cases is far too low to have any real confidence in the claims of specificity -- not to mention the obvious incentive manufacturers have to exaggerate their results. My reading is that the number of subjects involved in both cases is at most in the low hundreds, and should be in the many thousands to have real confidence in the the 1.5% range.

    more likely the antibody testing will have more false negatives than false positives.

    6% of those who have recovered from CV have not produced any antibodies. Most young people have strong enough immune systems to destroy the virus without the need to make antibodies.The study found that elderly and middle-aged people developed higher levels of antibodies than younger patients. 90% of the patients who did not develop coronavirus antibodies were 40 years old or younger. https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recovered-coronavirus-patients-antibodies-2020-4

    Would be interesting to test for antibodies in NYC. With 12,000 New Yorkers dead of CV they must have had 3 million infected already if the death rate is ~.5%. Consequently 30% of New Yorkers have already recovered form a bout with coronavirus and 25% probably have antibodies protecting them from reinfection.

    • Replies: @Redman
    Anyone know of a plan to have any antibody testing in the NY area? I'd be headed there right now if there was one.
  87. @Hail

    Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.
     
    "As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu."
    -- Dr. Knut Wittkowski, writing April 15, commenting on the coronavirus pandemic.

    With all kinds of data now pointing to the likelihood <0.1% fatality rate (when the numbers are disentangled) in most places, perhaps slightly higher in the very hardest hit localities (and half of victims now reported to be nursing home patients; almost all the remainder being elderly or very ill individuals), the media and the "media-run state" desperately want to cover up analysis.

    Even more embarrassing than how minor this pandemic actually is/was in historical terms (consider the nuclear-war-like response) is the fact that "the CoronaPanic" looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus. This is a textbook example of why not to create and fan the flames of a Panic.

    The policy response has been so irrational that I believe future generations are likely to remember it either as "the Corona Coup D'Etat of 2020" or as the "Corona Mass-Hysteria Event of 2020." Both are probably correct, to a degree; we'll have to wait to see how it plays out, which narrative wins out, and by how much, in collective memory by say 2030.

    My contention is that if the Dems somehow retake the White House in November CV-19 goes straight into the memory hole, never to be heard from again.

    • Agree: Travis
  88. Off-tropic: An anniversary just passed without notice:

    Eyjafjallajökull closed European airspace for almost a week. This year, “suburban” Reykjavik has seen felt 8,000 earthquakes since January:

    Awakening volcanic region in Iceland ‘could cause disruption for centuries’

    Is that why it’s snowed here all week?

    In California news, the mayor of Auburn resigned after posting a crude political joke:

    https://fox40.com/news/local-news/auburn-mayor-faces-backlash-over-social-media-posts/political

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    I didn't realize that Gov Northam is a Trump supporter.
  89. As I and others have repeatedly stated, the denominator the Deep State and hoaxstream media are using to calculate fatality rates is far too tiny:

    Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-us-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free/ar-BB12Jojz

    A sane society would have already realized this and re-opened for business. Alas, we no longer live in a sane society, as we have seen many instances of oppression in the name of safety and security.

  90. @MB
    This Event Was A Coordinated Last Ditch Effort By The [Deep State], Moves & Countermoves: Dr. Shiva

    This guy says the panic plannedemic was to accomplish 3 things: crash the economy, mandated big pharma vaccine (along with a microchip from Bill Gates) and suppress dissent @ 11:58.

    IOW those in charge of the programming for the electronic version of Plato's cave, aren't interested in putting themselves out of the propaganda business. Real facts and numbers would expose the scam; that this is one of the most brazen power grabs and a medical coup d'etat, for all practical purposes piggybacking on a seasonal virus epidemic.

    The biostat models - with mitigation included - are way overblown compared to the numbers coming back from the real world. Ferguson out of Imperial College went from 2-3 million fatalities to 100-200K and that is still way too high.
    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?
    One thousand ventilators needed in NY instead of three thousand that Cuomo was yelling about?
    And on it goes.

    The emperor has no clothes/Long live the emperor.

    Just watched Shiva’s podcast with Molyneux. Very interesting.

    The idea that Big Pharma wants to create a market of billions of people through the manipulation of scientific inquiry is not surprising. That could equate to the development of an entirely new global industry with many folks getting very wealthy. You couldn’t ask for a better marketing opportunity with the 201 event followed immediately by the CV pandemic.

    Is the hypothesis that these folks saw an opening with a novel virus which was actually known about earlier than January as has been reported? Or that when it was eventually learned CV was so easily spread (i.e. by asymptomatic people) they just saw an opening and ran with a plan to create as much panic as possible to market the vaccine angle?

    I suspect the latter, since Fauci first minimized the danger of CV in the NE Journal of Medicine in February. But then suddenly morphed into a promoter of mass panic, and a staunch promoter of the need for a vaccine. At a minimum this raises suspicion about his motives.

    • Replies: @Hail

    Molyneux
     
    Has anyone followed Molyneux during this?

    Has he been been generally pro-CoronaPanic or anti-CoronaPanic? If he interviewed a Corona Dissident, that would suggest he is, now at least, in the 'anti' camp.

    ___________

    In other news, Tucker Carlson is back, or so it seems.

    As others have remarked here, his constant pro-Panic coverage made him unwatchable. He appears to have given up, for a few weeks, his skeptical edge to instead play auxiliary-drumbeat-guy for the pro-CoronaPanic side.

    He ran an a segment titled, "What is the actual death rate of COVID-19?" with a known anti-CoronaPanic expert two days ago. Has he freed himself from the clutches of the evil beast now?

  91. @res
    Paper is at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

    Abstract

    Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
     

    So on April 3-4 they estimate between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County. Here is the Santa Clara County COVID-19 dashboard:
    https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

    On that we see 1094 cases on 4/3 and 1148 on 4/4. In the paper text they base their comparisons on 4/1:


    Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study.
     
    We have one advantage over the paper. We can look up the number of deaths on 4/16 and see it is 69 (there were 4 that day). That would give an IFR range of 0.085% to 0.14%. Even with some increase if the infection-death lag is three weeks that is still far lower than estimates in common use (I have been estimating 1% with a decent chance of 0.5%). Here is the paper's take on IFR.

    We can use our prevalence estimates to approximate the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 in Santa Clara County. As of April 10, 2020, 50 people have died of COVID-19 in the County, with an average increase of 6% daily in the number of deaths. If our estimates of 48,000-81,000 infections represent the cumulative total on April 1, and we project deaths to April 22 (a 3 week lag from time of infection to death22), we estimate about 100 deaths in the county. A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%. If antibodies take longer than 3 days to appear, if the average duration from case identification to death is less than 3 weeks, or if the epidemic wave has peaked and growth in deaths is less than 6% daily, then the infection fatality rate would be lower. These straightforward estimations of infection fatality rate fail to account for age structure and changing treatment approaches to COVID-19. Nevertheless, our prevalence estimates can be used to update existing fatality rates given the large upwards revision of under-ascertainment.
     
    Now for some caveats (emphasis mine).

    This study had several limitations. First, our sampling strategy selected for members of Santa Clara County with access to Facebook and a car to attend drive-through testing sites. This resulted in an overrepresentation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64, and an under-representation of Hispanic and Asian populations, relative to our community. Those imbalances were partly addressed by weighting our sample population by zip code, race, and sex to match the county. We did not account for age imbalance in our sample, and could not ascertain representativeness of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in homeless populations. Other biases, such as bias favoring individuals in good health capable of attending our testing sites, or bias favoring those with prior COVID-like illnesses seeking antibody confirmation are also possible. The overall effect of such biases is hard to ascertain.
     
    I think the biggest weakness is the age imbalance issue. To my mind that invalidates the IFR conclusions above. We already knew the fatality rate was low for younger people. Table 1 gives demographic data for both the adjusted and unadjusted sample as well as the county. We see that the adjusted sample is underweighted almost 3x for over 65. And the next bucket is 19-64 so we can't estimate the weighting for ages 50-64. Take a look at how different the mortality rates are for those ages in these estimates:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

    AGE | DEATH RATE all cases
    80+ years old 14.8%
    70-79 years old 8.0%
    60-69 years old 3.6%
    50-59 years old 1.3%
    40-49 years old 0.4%
    30-39 years old 0.2%
    20-29 years old 0.2%
    10-19 years old 0.2%
    0-9 years old _ no fatalities
     
    The paper sample also overweights women (link above estimates 1.7% death rate for women vs. 2.8% for men), but the sample adjustment should take care of this.

    (thinking about this some more during the edit window, as long as the infection rate is similar between the age groups this may not be as big a deal as I think)

    TLDR: This paper is suggestive about IFR, but far from definitive. Age unrepresentativeness is a fatal flaw for that analysis. Infection rate does not depend on that effect (age mortality rate differences) though so those estimates are likely better.

    P.S. The author's failure to break down age demographics more finely than they did really makes me question their commitment to getting a good estimate of IFR. I am disappointed in them.

    P.P.S. Ron, if you see this I would be interested in your take.

    I think the biggest weakness is the age imbalance issue. To my mind that invalidates the IFR conclusions above.

    If I’m reading the preview right, the IFR is just an extrapolation from existing deaths onto their new number of people infected (estimated from their study). Remember IFR is a fraction where the Numerator = deaths and Denominator = people infected.

    The deaths didn’t change in their study. It came from publicly available data. So there is no issue with age adjusting the deaths. The numerator in the IFR stays the same. But instead of using confirmed tests of actively infected in the county (a relatively small number), they used the total number of people that had been infected by projecting their anti-body tests out to the entire population. This is how the regular flu IFR is calculated, btw.

    The age break down would have nothing to do with the deaths, but instead is their attempt to normalize their sample so it mirrors the actual population demographics when they extrapolate out the number of infected (again, not deaths). For example, they are simply saying in our study 50% of the applicants were females, aged 19-65. In the total population only 35% of the people are females aged 19-65. So we’ve adjusted our infection rate, accordingly. (numbers not precise, just an example)

    This is far from conclusive, obviously. But it is one of the first attempts at getting at the true number infected here in the states. Surprisingly, their 3% comes in pretty well below the 10-15% prevalence found in the German and Icelandic studies.

    • Replies: @res

    So there is no issue with age adjusting the deaths. The numerator in the IFR stays the same.
     
    You are right. My analysis was flawed there.

    It is still possible there is bias (age and otherwise) in the sampling, but unlikely it is anywhere near as large as the age effect on mortality rate.

    This is far from conclusive, obviously. But it is one of the first attempts at getting at the true number infected here in the states. Surprisingly, their 3% comes in pretty well below the 10-15% prevalence found in the German and Icelandic studies.
     
    Agreed.

    The big thing which concerns me now is they did a number of adjustments (e.g. for accuracy of test results) and I don't feel able to judge whether they could (as used) bias the numbers. Any thoughts there?
  92. @Faraday's Bobcat
    Shiva is a self-promoting jackass who has been discredited many times.

    Any cites to such discrediting? Just asking.

  93. @candid_observer
    In that study, the "unadjusted" rate of positives was only 1.5%. Only by demographic extrapolation was it increased to ~3%. Of course such extrapolation is something of a mug's game at this point.

    And that doesn't strike me as being the weakest point in the study.

    If you have only 1.5% positive, how can you possibly be confident that antibody tests that were only recently developed could be so free of false positives that you could rely on this number to make extraordinary extrapolations to the population at large?

    The researchers rely on some mix of the claims of manufacturers of specificity, and some local testing they did themselves. But as best as I can see, the number of subjects involved in both cases is far too low to have any real confidence in the claims of specificity -- not to mention the obvious incentive manufacturers have to exaggerate their results. My reading is that the number of subjects involved in both cases is at most in the low hundreds, and should be in the many thousands to have real confidence in the the 1.5% range.

    I think the biggest weakness is the age imbalance issue. To my mind that invalidates the IFR conclusions above.

    That’s a fair point. Seems like that is going to be an issue with nearly all the tests all over the country given the immediacy with which everything is being rolled out. All the numbers so far are “dirty,” and people are coming up with the best they can. We’ll have a real good handle on this thing 5 years from now. A lot of good that does anyone today.

    But the regular flu IFR is based on similar style estimates. It seems to me that this type of analysis is more fair and more useful when making those comparisons than just saying well in Springfield County we had 10 cases and 1 death so the IFR must be 10%. The latter is what got fed into much of the doomsday models and lead even stringent scientists off the deep end.

  94. @Jim Given
    What do we see at the top of the Government? Hysteria. Paralysis. Butt-Covering. Grandstanding. And a Certain Amount of Profiteering.

    Anyone with a deep interest in Systems must have seen the series on the Chernobyl disaster.
    Common features with the Chinese response to corona? Lots.But too many common features to our own response.

    Why is the Government reluctant to blame the Chinese? Perhaps they recall the old adage about Those Who Live in Glass Houses.

    I’ve seen a number of stories in the press like this one:

    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-pandemic-authoritarians-world-opportunity-crack/story?id=69795910

    talking about how authoritarians around the World are using the COVID-19 pandemic to crack down on dissent and seize power. And yet they always point the finger at someone else, like Viktor Orban, whom the establishment media hates anyway. They never mention, for example, the US, where arbitrary government control over people’s lives is being normalized and dissent is stifled using the tried-and-true american methods of media propaganda.

  95. @Lugash
    Google, Apple, Samsung, Verizon and T-Mobile could probably be loaned the NSA's cellphone correlation software, tie it to their own internal data and get a good historical look and also be able to warn people about potential exposure. "We noticed you sat in the drive through line at Starbucks for 15 minutes. Two people who have since tested positive for Covid-19 were in line before you an hour before. Please isolate accordinly".

    Google and Apple are doing something similar right now.

    Google, Apple, Samsung, Verizon and T-Mobile could probably be loaned the NSA’s cellphone correlation software, tie it to their own internal data and get a good historical look and also be able to warn people about potential exposure. “We noticed you sat in the drive through line at Starbucks for 15 minutes. Two people who have since tested positive for Covid-19 were in line before you an hour before. Please isolate accordinly”.

    The same technique could be used to flatten the curve on thought-crime. “We noticed that you were at a party with a person who has since been discovered to be a regular reader of Unz.com. Watch this video produced by Vox instructing you to trust only vetted media outlets.”

  96. Hail says: • Website
    @Redman
    Just watched Shiva's podcast with Molyneux. Very interesting.

    The idea that Big Pharma wants to create a market of billions of people through the manipulation of scientific inquiry is not surprising. That could equate to the development of an entirely new global industry with many folks getting very wealthy. You couldn't ask for a better marketing opportunity with the 201 event followed immediately by the CV pandemic.

    Is the hypothesis that these folks saw an opening with a novel virus which was actually known about earlier than January as has been reported? Or that when it was eventually learned CV was so easily spread (i.e. by asymptomatic people) they just saw an opening and ran with a plan to create as much panic as possible to market the vaccine angle?

    I suspect the latter, since Fauci first minimized the danger of CV in the NE Journal of Medicine in February. But then suddenly morphed into a promoter of mass panic, and a staunch promoter of the need for a vaccine. At a minimum this raises suspicion about his motives.

    Molyneux

    Has anyone followed Molyneux during this?

    Has he been been generally pro-CoronaPanic or anti-CoronaPanic? If he interviewed a Corona Dissident, that would suggest he is, now at least, in the ‘anti’ camp.

    ___________

    In other news, Tucker Carlson is back, or so it seems.

    As others have remarked here, his constant pro-Panic coverage made him unwatchable. He appears to have given up, for a few weeks, his skeptical edge to instead play auxiliary-drumbeat-guy for the pro-CoronaPanic side.

    He ran an a segment titled, “What is the actual death rate of COVID-19?” with a known anti-CoronaPanic expert two days ago. Has he freed himself from the clutches of the evil beast now?

  97. @Anonymous
    You know as well as I do that Senilo isn’t going to be allowed to be President for any length of time. His ability to function is nil. He is more demented today than Reagan was on leaving office and it’s getting worse. He’ll be swapped out for some liberal squack who will in turn do as she is told by the globalists and central bankers. I think the plan is to get him elected and then it’s discovered he is not functional and must step down, or he will get the disease of convenience and pass away.

    Alternatively he may have a Howard Dean moment and be swapped out for The Rod or some other she-beast.

    Old, moldy, mildewed, decrepit, senile Joe Biden = Die, J. B.; Old, moldy, mildewed, decrepit, senile one

  98. @Lugash
    Google, Apple, Samsung, Verizon and T-Mobile could probably be loaned the NSA's cellphone correlation software, tie it to their own internal data and get a good historical look and also be able to warn people about potential exposure. "We noticed you sat in the drive through line at Starbucks for 15 minutes. Two people who have since tested positive for Covid-19 were in line before you an hour before. Please isolate accordinly".

    Google and Apple are doing something similar right now.

    I immediately thought of this…

  99. @botazefa

    In the current crisis, why can’t some Big Data wizard be allowed to do something similar with, say, Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions? This could be hugely useful at telling us how much risk, say, schoolteachers would be in from reopening schools
     
    And we could have data scientists collate every galactic datum to conclude the sun is unlikely to explode tomorrow. Do we really need science to study that which is plainly observable?

    There are so so many 'essential workers' that if this virus was a real threat they would be dropping like flies. Does anyone disagree?

    We don't need more data than we have. We certainly don't need weaker controls on our medical records, anonymized or not.

    I would agree in principle. Not that wouldn’t be better to have more date (e.g. like knowing what the actual infection rate is, rather than totally speculative estimates based on unknown predictive models). But that it seems we have sufficient data to make reasoned decisions for ourselves, without this totalitarian government lock down.

    The infection rate is clearly quite high. I actually suspect there are for than just the asymptomatic folks who didn’t even know they had it. There are lots of people who have been quite sick that I know of in my neighborhood in Larchmont who aren’t telling anyone since everyone is quarantining anyway. They’re not going out of their way to get tested since it’s a hassle and has no benefit.

    The value of having a “study” to compare the relative safety of getting one’s haircut versus going back to law office, courtroom, bookstore, etc. seems fairly useless. We know enough not to go to places like Ishgl (crowded bars, clubs, etc.), but most other things (with masks and other sensible precautions) should be opened. Maybe its just me, but the reluctance to just start back up reminds me of Prufrock and his peach.

  100. @FPD72

    We have what? twelve fatalities now out of 3700 infected on the Diamond Princess?
     
    There were 3,711 passengers and crew aboard, all of whom were tested. A total of 705 tested positive. If there have been 12 deaths, that would be a CFR and IFR (the same in this instance since the entire ship’s company was tested) of 1.7% and a morbidity rate of .32%.

    Apply that same morbidity rate to the entire country and you get a little over a million deaths, about 20 times a bad flu season. But since cruise passengers skew older than our general population and infectious diseases seem to run roughshod through the ships, I’m not sure how applicable these data are to our nation as a whole. Most of the deaths occurred before we tried some of the pharmaceutical treatments that appear to be helpful, so it’s possible that the death totals would be lower.

    Ionnadis ran that with age adjusted results. Article was in statnews.com. IFR under .1% or same as the flu.

    Also, you’re considering a 100% saturation rate. Cruise ship had an infection rate of about 19% which is inline with the later Icelandic and German studies.

    (back of the napkin math) 350 million people times 19% infection rate times 0.1% infection rate = ~66,000 deaths. Or roughly same as a bad flu year.

    You only get millions of deaths with the same faulty assumptions Fauci and the rest of the fear brigade made.

    • Replies: @FPD72
    I did not assume a 100% “saturation” rate. I used the mortality rate from the ship. The mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the entire population, which was 12 divided by 3,711 = .0032 or .32%. If applied to the US, the same mortality rate would yield 1,067,097 deaths. I also recognized that cruise passengers skew older (although I would guess that the crew, who are included in the 3,711, would skew younger) and that this would impact on the results. I have not seen a listing of the twelve who died, with their ages. I also recognized that infectious diseases run rampant on cruise ships. But my math was correct; if you applied the same mortality rate, not adjusted for age or other factors, to the US as a whole, you would have over a million fatalities. Trust me, I know the difference between mortality rate, CFR and IFR.
  101. @Ano
    Mr Sailer, as you know, only some numbers in America may be crunched...

    Number of gentle-giant-aspiring-rappers-who-were-turning-their-lives-around shot by white police officers.

    Number of cherubic angelic black youths killed by 'white' men like George Zimmerman

    Number of African-Americans who suffer from white-people caused diseases such as redliningvirus, notwinningallthegrammysvirus, hairtouchingvirus, etc....

    And now, you are permitted to crunch...

    Number of obese diabetic welfare negroes killed by the Trumpvirus.

    Too, Two, 2 funny!

  102. @Almost Missouri
    I didn't expect to defend the integrity of our intelligence agencies, but—partly due to HIPAA (another thing I didn't expect to defend)—medical office systems are among the hardest domestic hacking targets. And, as per my previous comment, even if you do hack them, what do you get? Not much that is useful.

    Well, I guess I'm not really defending anyone's "integrity". It's just that medical records are largely crappy records, so as a target, licit or illicit, they are much less valuable in practice than in theory. If you want to analyze/embarrass one individual, medical records could be useful, but for anything large scale, the data acquiring, scrubbing, interpreting, and analyzing costs quickly become prohibitive. Even the NSA has a budget.

    If you want to analyze/embarrass one individual, medical records could be useful, but for anything large scale, the data acquiring, scrubbing, interpreting, and analyzing costs quickly become prohibitive. Even the NSA has a budget.

    First, as, you note, embarrassment.

    Second, recon. A hostile has a heart condition? Keep having agents and loud noises scare him out of nowhere.

    Is he being treated for cancer? Make sure he can’t sleep at night, and overload him with work stress until he quits or gets so jacked up on speed/caffeine to keep him going that he does something reckless or falls asleep at the wheel.

    Diabetic? Dilute his insulin so he starts to have headaches, fatigue, etc.

    Or is he taking Viagra suddenly, and yet his wife is still frustrated? He’s got a mistress—now you have leverage.

    Or did he spend a ton of money at a plastic surgeons recently? Vanity, he’s looking good for someone.

    Did he get treated at an urgent care far from his home a few times in the last few years? Now you have a location for his safe house/”off the grid” home.

    And don’t forget—with the records, you also know who is regular doctor is and the nurses and staff who are close to him physically when he’s most vulnerable. They can be bribed or threatened to get people in or to prescribe bad medication/treatment to mess with your guy.

    This isn’t that hard. Your medical conditions and treatments give away your weaknesses, in more ways than one.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    Wow, sounds like someone is angling for a job with the Stasi.

    And here I thought we were talking about analyzing medical data for pandemic control.
  103. @MB
    No doubt/entirely possible that Shiva is a self promoting BSer. I don't know.

    But for all practical purposes this event crashed the economy, Gate's plan to microchip vaccinate the universe is now mainstreamed and dissent is being suppressed because "safety".

    If this was baseball, that's a great batting average.

    Exactly. Sounds almost as good as the Houston Astros’ “batting average” while they knew what pitches were being thrown.

  104. @MikeatMikedotMike
    "is the fact that “the CoronaPanic” looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus."

    Can you amplify this statement? I'm genuinely interested.

    I assume he means heart attacks and other things that people didn’t go to the hospital for when they should have.

    I personally wonder how many young and healthy years will be lost due to quarantine- induced international weight gain, versus how many elderly and frail years were saved.

    Then again, motorists and pedestrians have died and been injured in smaller numbers, etc.

  105. @Travis
    more likely the antibody testing will have more false negatives than false positives.

    6% of those who have recovered from CV have not produced any antibodies. Most young people have strong enough immune systems to destroy the virus without the need to make antibodies.The study found that elderly and middle-aged people developed higher levels of antibodies than younger patients. 90% of the patients who did not develop coronavirus antibodies were 40 years old or younger. https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recovered-coronavirus-patients-antibodies-2020-4

    Would be interesting to test for antibodies in NYC. With 12,000 New Yorkers dead of CV they must have had 3 million infected already if the death rate is ~.5%. Consequently 30% of New Yorkers have already recovered form a bout with coronavirus and 25% probably have antibodies protecting them from reinfection.

    Anyone know of a plan to have any antibody testing in the NY area? I’d be headed there right now if there was one.

  106. @moshe
    BECAUSE WE ARE WINNING THAT FIGHT, AND BRINGING ATTENTION TO IT WILL AWAKEN ENEMY RESISTENCE.

    Have you never played poker or had a disagreement with your heterosexual significant other?

    This one is obvious and for as long as Steve can discipline himself to refarin from finding cherry-picked pro-immigs he should hold that discipline.

    America very very very agrees with us. Making ANY noise now or for the foreseeable future would be uber super dumb.

    Even in response to provication.

    Moshe, I like the way you think.

    • Thanks: moshe
  107. @Reg Cæsar
    Off-tropic: An anniversary just passed without notice:


    https://cdn.britannica.com/34/143334-050-B4789C6D/eruption-plume-volcano-Iceland-Eyjafjallajokull-atmosphere-ash-2010.jpg


    Eyjafjallajökull closed European airspace for almost a week. This year, "suburban" Reykjavik has seen felt 8,000 earthquakes since January:

    Awakening volcanic region in Iceland 'could cause disruption for centuries'

    Is that why it's snowed here all week?

    In California news, the mayor of Auburn resigned after posting a crude political joke:


    https://fox40.com/news/local-news/auburn-mayor-faces-backlash-over-social-media-posts/political


    https://www.canyon-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Likened-To-The-KKK.jpg

    I didn’t realize that Gov Northam is a Trump supporter.

    • Agree: MB
  108. Anonymous[240] • Disclaimer says:
    @Polynikes

    Speaking of the NSA, they’ve had our movements mapped in real time since at least 9/11.
     
    They've been trying since then. Since ~2010 for sure. The invention of the smart phone was a godsend to them (and every other gov. in the world, as we're seeing).

    E911 – triangulation and/or GPS location tracking of all cell phones, supposedly for use in “emergencies” has been mandatory since late 1990s.

    The supposed “emergency” scenario is that you were in a car crash etc. and DON’T KNOW WHERE YOU ARE.

  109. @moshe
    WHAT THE HELL?!

    The one thing that the crazies on bith sides have in common is calls for BLOOD ON THE STREETS.

    You call for blood because the disease wasn't a big deal while Unz calls for hangings because it's a really really big deal.

    Heck, even Scott Alexander's recent post fantasized (admittedly less seriously than you) about heads on pikes...

    I have disagreed with Steve Sailer regarding this issue and how important it is for The Government to take away our human rights but one thing he has bit done much of (if any) was engage in Hatred against "those who might be wrong" about this whole Coronabusiness or its response.

    This demand for blood in the streets is horrible.

    Let me admit my biases. I regard Quarantinism as a religion/social movement and though I stand behind nobody in mocking the faith's claimed beliefs, I think that religious movements spontaneously adapted (or even acquiesced to) by hundreds of millions of people in countries as different as America, China, Israel and Iran ought to be given some intellectual and enotional respect for its practices, if not for its kindergarten grade justifications.

    I also like that mankind has (4,000 years too late) come around to evolving the collective conscience that brought about a weak form of the biblical Jubilee year.

    Maybe that's why I'm not fantasizing about blood flowing in response to something that millions upon millions of people (whether on one side or on the other) may have gotten wrong --- or at least been caught up in the fire and fear of the religious movement.

    I'm not above fantasizing about punishments meeted out to either my few personal enemies over the years or to class enemies. I doubt it represents the best of me but it's been there. And I've definitely been critical of Steve's tone toward the enemies of this blog's usual ideologies (though you will note that they are never against his own personal enemies).

    But even though Steve has been one of the early Panickers and clearly Has A Side, he has reported (perhaps slightly unfairly but) without hatred the theories and preferences and findings of those countries calling for freedom or for herd immunity, those scientists (pre-inquisition) who wondered about the massive aktons in response to almost no data, and findings that (as was always obvious to me and perhaps you) cheek kissings and choir singings spread the virus around the world while table touching did only about as often as lesbian sex spread hiv.

    Please stop the calls for hangings and blood - especially if you are on my team. (I doubt those who think this is a zionist plot for gold grabbing will consider my call to be in good faith, nor do I especially mind when they throw shit and cover themselves in gorey.

    This demand for blood in the streets is horrible.

  110. @Hail

    Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.
     
    "As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu."
    -- Dr. Knut Wittkowski, writing April 15, commenting on the coronavirus pandemic.

    With all kinds of data now pointing to the likelihood <0.1% fatality rate (when the numbers are disentangled) in most places, perhaps slightly higher in the very hardest hit localities (and half of victims now reported to be nursing home patients; almost all the remainder being elderly or very ill individuals), the media and the "media-run state" desperately want to cover up analysis.

    Even more embarrassing than how minor this pandemic actually is/was in historical terms (consider the nuclear-war-like response) is the fact that "the CoronaPanic" looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus. This is a textbook example of why not to create and fan the flames of a Panic.

    The policy response has been so irrational that I believe future generations are likely to remember it either as "the Corona Coup D'Etat of 2020" or as the "Corona Mass-Hysteria Event of 2020." Both are probably correct, to a degree; we'll have to wait to see how it plays out, which narrative wins out, and by how much, in collective memory by say 2030.

    “The policy response has been so irrational that I believe future generations are likely to remember it either as “the Corona Coup D’Etat of 2020” or as the “Corona Mass-Hysteria Event of 2020.””

    It really depends if the conspiracy theorists or cock-up theorists are right. It depends if the crackdown was designed to engineer a 1984-style dystopia or if it was a case of the rulers (some of whom probably have senile dementia) and parts of the general panicking. Of course, this could start as a cock-up that becomes a crackdown to keep those responsible from being accountable, or a crackdown that is really a rehearsal for the real crackdown and so is lifted temporarily.

    If the lockdown is lifted, it will be forgotten, or known as “the panic of 2020”, or even remembered as “the epidemic of 2020” and the small number of deaths forgotten. If not, then “the crackdown”.

    • Thanks: Hail
  111. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot
    “ Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions”

    Both organizations routinely give access to their data for big epidemiology studies. As do smaller HMOs, but you named the two that do it the most. Kaiser itself conducts a lot of this research itself in house too. Search “Kaiser” on PubMed for many examples.

    HIPAA is a general-purpose excuse for any actor involved in the 20% of our economy related with healthcare to not do something they don’t want to do, or want a lot more money to do. It’s the “I’ve got a headache” of the heathcare industrial complex. So for your particular request for race-coded Covid data... sorry HIPAA.

    HIPAA is a general-purpose excuse for any actor involved in the 20% of our economy related with healthcare to not do something they don’t want to do, or want a lot more money to do. It’s the “I’ve got a headache” of the heathcare industrial complex. So for your particular request for race-coded Covid data… sorry HIPAA.

    In other words, “pwoduct wiability”.

  112. @R.G. Camara

    If you want to analyze/embarrass one individual, medical records could be useful, but for anything large scale, the data acquiring, scrubbing, interpreting, and analyzing costs quickly become prohibitive. Even the NSA has a budget.
     
    First, as, you note, embarrassment.

    Second, recon. A hostile has a heart condition? Keep having agents and loud noises scare him out of nowhere.

    Is he being treated for cancer? Make sure he can't sleep at night, and overload him with work stress until he quits or gets so jacked up on speed/caffeine to keep him going that he does something reckless or falls asleep at the wheel.

    Diabetic? Dilute his insulin so he starts to have headaches, fatigue, etc.

    Or is he taking Viagra suddenly, and yet his wife is still frustrated? He's got a mistress---now you have leverage.

    Or did he spend a ton of money at a plastic surgeons recently? Vanity, he's looking good for someone.

    Did he get treated at an urgent care far from his home a few times in the last few years? Now you have a location for his safe house/"off the grid" home.

    And don't forget---with the records, you also know who is regular doctor is and the nurses and staff who are close to him physically when he's most vulnerable. They can be bribed or threatened to get people in or to prescribe bad medication/treatment to mess with your guy.

    This isn't that hard. Your medical conditions and treatments give away your weaknesses, in more ways than one.

    Wow, sounds like someone is angling for a job with the Stasi.

    And here I thought we were talking about analyzing medical data for pandemic control.

  113. @Lot
    “ Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions”

    Both organizations routinely give access to their data for big epidemiology studies. As do smaller HMOs, but you named the two that do it the most. Kaiser itself conducts a lot of this research itself in house too. Search “Kaiser” on PubMed for many examples.

    HIPAA is a general-purpose excuse for any actor involved in the 20% of our economy related with healthcare to not do something they don’t want to do, or want a lot more money to do. It’s the “I’ve got a headache” of the heathcare industrial complex. So for your particular request for race-coded Covid data... sorry HIPAA.

    “HIPAA is a general-purpose excuse for any actor involved in the 20% of our economy related with healthcare to not do something they don’t want to do”

    Agree.

    A healthcare lawyer described HIPAA to me as “a law that makes getting information impossible and the healthcare industry likes it that way.”

  114. @Brian Reilly
    What is ridiculous is imagining that the US government has any desire for the real data attendant to this whole sorry to be analyzed. Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal. It would reveal no medical/public health reason to initiate the destruction of large swaths of the economy.

    Someday, maybe soon, people will figure out how much our "leaders" in politics, business, and public service have been screwing us over and for how long. I hope there will be blood in the streets on that day. Real blood, not metaphorical or ironic.

    “What is ridiculous is imagining that the US government has any desire for the real data attendant to this whole sorry to be analyzed. Said analysis would reveal an illness not very important, serious, or lethal.”

    Then there is no need for the data, because you’ve already drawn the conclusion from something…you haven’t even seen.

    “I hope there will be blood in the streets on that day. Real blood, not metaphorical or ironic.”

    Another arm chair warrior speaks.

  115. @Anonymous
    Hypnotoad is exactly right. We should (and could) have a database of every single proven Covid infection and death complete with demographics, comorbidities and basic clinical course. It could be freely available to all researchers, which would quickly give us a deep, likely profound insight to the disease. But I don't blame HIPPA; HIPPA would *usually* be an obstacle to this sort of thing, but in pandemic mode you could easily convince Congress to grant the necessary exceptions. In fact it's amazing how quickly lawmakers and bureaucrats are brushing aside the usual healthcare regulations; paperwork that would normally take months now takes minutes. I hate HIPPA, but it's not the reason we don't have this database. Blame our politicians for not having the imagination and intelligence to push for this; but more than that, blame the medical and public establishments, most of whom would rather tweet and give press conferences than actually try to conquer this disease.

    “We should (and could) have a database of every single proven Covid infection and death complete with demographics, comorbidities and basic clinical course.”

    OK, fine. Contact your local representative. Or get into contact with Trump himself. He is more than willing to offer up records and information.

    “HIPPA would *usually* be an obstacle to this sort of thing, but in pandemic mode you could easily
    convince Congress to grant the necessary exceptions.”

    How do you convince the average American, as well as libertarians, that this exception does NOT represent a slippery slope?

  116. Anonymous[683] • Disclaimer says:
    @moshe
    BECAUSE WE ARE WINNING THAT FIGHT, AND BRINGING ATTENTION TO IT WILL AWAKEN ENEMY RESISTENCE.

    Have you never played poker or had a disagreement with your heterosexual significant other?

    This one is obvious and for as long as Steve can discipline himself to refarin from finding cherry-picked pro-immigs he should hold that discipline.

    America very very very agrees with us. Making ANY noise now or for the foreseeable future would be uber super dumb.

    Even in response to provication.

    America very very very agrees with us. Making ANY noise now or for the foreseeable future would be uber super dumb.

    Right. Let’s all keep quiet about immigration until the health and jobs crisis is a distant memory. That’ll be the moment of stasis to try to overturn the inertia a half century old policy.

    If what you write were true, we would be seeing the president, congresspersons, and media pundits out calling for repatriation and for rolling back Hart-Celler. But we don’t.

    Steve is missing the opportunity of his lifetime.

    It’s now or never. Paging Rahm Emanuel.

  117. @Polynikes

    I think the biggest weakness is the age imbalance issue. To my mind that invalidates the IFR conclusions above.
     
    If I'm reading the preview right, the IFR is just an extrapolation from existing deaths onto their new number of people infected (estimated from their study). Remember IFR is a fraction where the Numerator = deaths and Denominator = people infected.

    The deaths didn't change in their study. It came from publicly available data. So there is no issue with age adjusting the deaths. The numerator in the IFR stays the same. But instead of using confirmed tests of actively infected in the county (a relatively small number), they used the total number of people that had been infected by projecting their anti-body tests out to the entire population. This is how the regular flu IFR is calculated, btw.

    The age break down would have nothing to do with the deaths, but instead is their attempt to normalize their sample so it mirrors the actual population demographics when they extrapolate out the number of infected (again, not deaths). For example, they are simply saying in our study 50% of the applicants were females, aged 19-65. In the total population only 35% of the people are females aged 19-65. So we've adjusted our infection rate, accordingly. (numbers not precise, just an example)

    This is far from conclusive, obviously. But it is one of the first attempts at getting at the true number infected here in the states. Surprisingly, their 3% comes in pretty well below the 10-15% prevalence found in the German and Icelandic studies.

    So there is no issue with age adjusting the deaths. The numerator in the IFR stays the same.

    You are right. My analysis was flawed there.

    It is still possible there is bias (age and otherwise) in the sampling, but unlikely it is anywhere near as large as the age effect on mortality rate.

    This is far from conclusive, obviously. But it is one of the first attempts at getting at the true number infected here in the states. Surprisingly, their 3% comes in pretty well below the 10-15% prevalence found in the German and Icelandic studies.

    Agreed.

    The big thing which concerns me now is they did a number of adjustments (e.g. for accuracy of test results) and I don’t feel able to judge whether they could (as used) bias the numbers. Any thoughts there?

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    Unfortunately not. That’s beyond anything I could even guess at.

    It is a fair issue to raise, though. It is something however I’m rather loathe to think about—the accuracy of these tests, in general. We’ve brought all these tests along quickly. If they aren’t even remotely accurate to the point that the rather respected guys doing this study can’t rely on them, we’re almost back to square one.
  118. @res

    So there is no issue with age adjusting the deaths. The numerator in the IFR stays the same.
     
    You are right. My analysis was flawed there.

    It is still possible there is bias (age and otherwise) in the sampling, but unlikely it is anywhere near as large as the age effect on mortality rate.

    This is far from conclusive, obviously. But it is one of the first attempts at getting at the true number infected here in the states. Surprisingly, their 3% comes in pretty well below the 10-15% prevalence found in the German and Icelandic studies.
     
    Agreed.

    The big thing which concerns me now is they did a number of adjustments (e.g. for accuracy of test results) and I don't feel able to judge whether they could (as used) bias the numbers. Any thoughts there?

    Unfortunately not. That’s beyond anything I could even guess at.

    It is a fair issue to raise, though. It is something however I’m rather loathe to think about—the accuracy of these tests, in general. We’ve brought all these tests along quickly. If they aren’t even remotely accurate to the point that the rather respected guys doing this study can’t rely on them, we’re almost back to square one.

  119. Hail says: • Website
    @MikeatMikedotMike
    "is the fact that “the CoronaPanic” looks almost certain to have killed more victims already in many of the high-profile, high-panic places, according to various analyses of the most recent death data, than the virus."

    Can you amplify this statement? I'm genuinely interested.

    I wrote about this here:

    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/models-the-logic-of-failure/#comment-3838440

    (The first part of the post shows that Weeks 1 to 12 had been unusually mild for deaths in the UK, a net 5,000 below the norm, one of the mildest flu seasons in years, and that observed coronavirus-attributed deaths up through Weeks 13 and 14 are an upward-correction to get back to the longterm baseline.)

    Firm data suggests a majority of excess deaths are attributable to the ‘Panic’ and not to the ‘Virus’ in the UK:

    On observed deaths that are attributable to the Panic and not to the Virus

    […] The UK’s Week 14 data release suggests that…half or more of the rise in deaths may be attributable to the ‘lockdown’ policy and the panic, and not to the virus.

    The UK’s Week 14, five-year-avg. deaths: 10,305;
    The UK’s 2020 Week 14 total deaths were 16,387,
    …of which, listed as “COVID-19 deaths”: 3,475

    That is +6,082 deaths over the long-run average,
    but only 3,475 of the deaths are attributed to COVID-19,
    which leaves 2,607 marginal deaths unaccounted for […]

    How does one account for these non-COVID marginal deaths? I cannot be the only one to notice this. The way Coronavirus discourse works, some people sound a lonely alarm about this kind of finding and no one pays attention to them, as at the height of a Panic there is no ‘market’ in the media for contrary views. Like anti-war voices during the height of war fever, such people are seen as perhaps unpatriotic in some way.

    The most reasonable explanation I can see is that the Panic itself caused these 2,607 extra deaths. There are reports that people with heart attacks or other serious problems are too scared to seek treatment (the same is being reported in NYC) and are dying unnecessarily. This is precisely the reason one never wants to promote panic […]

    Assuming there is at least some degree of a “deaths with the virus vs. deaths from the virus” problem in the UK data (as elsewhere), it’s possible [nay, likely] that there have already been more marginal deaths in the UK due to the panic over the virus, than due to the virus itself. And this, long before the recession starts to bite…
    _________________________

  120. @Louis Renault

    the Corona Coup D’Etat of 2020
     
    Yes, because Russia Collusion, Stormy Daniels, and the Ukriane "whistleblower" all failed.

    Has anyone been following non-corona news coverage, if any, from the US MSM? Is anyone still talking about Russia?

  121. @Polynikes
    Ionnadis ran that with age adjusted results. Article was in statnews.com. IFR under .1% or same as the flu.

    Also, you're considering a 100% saturation rate. Cruise ship had an infection rate of about 19% which is inline with the later Icelandic and German studies.

    (back of the napkin math) 350 million people times 19% infection rate times 0.1% infection rate = ~66,000 deaths. Or roughly same as a bad flu year.

    You only get millions of deaths with the same faulty assumptions Fauci and the rest of the fear brigade made.

    I did not assume a 100% “saturation” rate. I used the mortality rate from the ship. The mortality rate is the number of deaths divided by the entire population, which was 12 divided by 3,711 = .0032 or .32%. If applied to the US, the same mortality rate would yield 1,067,097 deaths. I also recognized that cruise passengers skew older (although I would guess that the crew, who are included in the 3,711, would skew younger) and that this would impact on the results. I have not seen a listing of the twelve who died, with their ages. I also recognized that infectious diseases run rampant on cruise ships. But my math was correct; if you applied the same mortality rate, not adjusted for age or other factors, to the US as a whole, you would have over a million fatalities. Trust me, I know the difference between mortality rate, CFR and IFR.

  122. Anonymous[266] • Disclaimer says:

    I used to do data mining of manually entered records — shipping records, as it happened. Nightmare, completely infeasible. Much of the data was false (put in to get the ship cleared to leave port), the formatting was very bad, and accessibility to the database was extremely poor. Eventually the organization I was working for decided that all their database data was useless and stopped trying to access it.

    Data mining works best when the data is clean and gathered by software. Number of clicks on otherwise identical advertisements using different color schemes is a reasonable subject for data mining. Records entered in stressful situations, of no use whatsoever to the people entering the data, and that the people entering the data don’t expect to be used, are worthless. “Cause of death” will not be nearly as accurate as “Date of death”, for example. If the patient isn’t marked as dead on some specific date, the patient’s body won’t be removed, and bad things will happen. If “cause of death” is wrong, well, that won’t smell up the ward, so who cares?

    Data mining is a very powerful tool, but, well, garbage in, garbage out.

  123. @Ano
    Mr Sailer, as you know, only some numbers in America may be crunched...

    Number of gentle-giant-aspiring-rappers-who-were-turning-their-lives-around shot by white police officers.

    Number of cherubic angelic black youths killed by 'white' men like George Zimmerman

    Number of African-Americans who suffer from white-people caused diseases such as redliningvirus, notwinningallthegrammysvirus, hairtouchingvirus, etc....

    And now, you are permitted to crunch...

    Number of obese diabetic welfare negroes killed by the Trumpvirus.

    Right. If we actually had serious number crunching on the virus data I imagine the “what have we learned?” lesson is…… “AI is racist” and that’s the end of that.

  124. Too bad about the shortage of widespread testing. If this study has merit – and the actual Covid-19 infection rate is 50-85X what had been assumed! — then the calculations and responses get more interesting.
    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-17/coronavirus-antibodies-study-santa-clara-county

    Even if PANDEMIC!!! DEATH is the only metric (and the tally of CV-related is inflated), there is perspective gained from a survey of historical pandemics:
    http://www.talkstats.com/threads/wanted-rational-coronavirus-analysis.74951/#post-219969

    Finally, you’d think that the shortage of face masks could be addressed by inventing a disinfecting technique that would allow reuse of said masks … perhaps using cutting-edge technologies like soap, water, bleach, air, sunshine, etc.

    • Replies: @anon
    Finally, you’d think that the shortage of face masks could be addressed by inventing a disinfecting technique that would allow reuse of said masks

    I suggest you learn how to use a search engine.

    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=mask+disinfecting&t=brave&ia=videos
  125. The fun of reading iSteve and commentators each morning is the realization that despite my reputation as a government hating skeptic, I’m practically Pollyanna here with this group. I’ve heard so many ludicrous and never-come-to-pass conspiracy theories over the years that my mantra is, per the late Peter McAlpine, “I don’t want conspiracy theories, I want to see the facts behind the conspiracies.” Alas, in short supply.

    Who knew that amateur epidemiology could be so popular? As evidenced by half the comments here. I guess it is the propeller headed nerd audience Steve attracts. Good for you! We all need to stay busy, especially since daytime TV sucks.

    Here’s a Wuhan Flu silver lining: PBS is now whimpering about having to lay off staffers due to declining revenues from suckers and quasi government TV stations. Soon hordes of silver haired, bitter lesbians and effete, suspiciously personable sounding males (who do the coffee fetching) will be roaming the deserted streets of DC, crumpled Tote Bags in hand. They are all otherwise unemployable and none have seen the inside of a Walmart.

    Soon, they could actually encounter some of those “People of Color” on the streets they’re always whining about. That will be fun. But they won’t last long. Kombucha lattes and vegan pasta keeps them very thin but weak. Corona Chan Strikes Again!

  126. @Jim from Boston
    Too bad about the shortage of widespread testing. If this study has merit – and the actual Covid-19 infection rate is 50-85X what had been assumed! -- then the calculations and responses get more interesting.
    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-17/coronavirus-antibodies-study-santa-clara-county

    Even if PANDEMIC!!! DEATH is the only metric (and the tally of CV-related is inflated), there is perspective gained from a survey of historical pandemics:
    http://www.talkstats.com/threads/wanted-rational-coronavirus-analysis.74951/#post-219969

    Finally, you’d think that the shortage of face masks could be addressed by inventing a disinfecting technique that would allow reuse of said masks … perhaps using cutting-edge technologies like soap, water, bleach, air, sunshine, etc.

    Finally, you’d think that the shortage of face masks could be addressed by inventing a disinfecting technique that would allow reuse of said masks

    I suggest you learn how to use a search engine.

    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=mask+disinfecting&t=brave&ia=videos

  127. Finally, you’d think that the shortage of face masks could be addressed by inventing a disinfecting technique that would allow reuse of said masks

    I suggest you learn how to use a search engine.

    I suggest you learn sarcasm.

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