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The Best NFL Quarterbacks of 2014
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Ranking NFL quarterbacks is a complex process with competing statistical approaches. Below I’ve taken two stats published separately by FootballOutsiders, Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement for both passing and running with the ball and added them together. Here are the 14 NFL quarterbacks who accounted for at least 500 yards more than would have a theoretical replacement-level quarterback. Not too surprisingly, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay comes out #1 in combined Passing and Rushing yardage production for the 2014 regular season.

Player Team DYAR Pass DYAR Rush DYAR Total
A.Rodgers GB 1,563 104 1,667
B.Roethlisberger PIT 1,598 33 1,631
P.Manning DEN 1,433 0 1,433
D.Brees NO 1,212 27 1,239
T.Romo DAL 1,198 23 1,221
T.Brady NE 1,173 -19 1,154
M.Ryan ATL 1,101 23 1,124
J.Flacco BAL 982 -1 981
A.Luck IND 885 41 926
P.Rivers SD 917 3 920
R.Wilson SEA 465 284 749
R.Tannehill MIA 613 63 676
E.Manning NYG 632 0 632
A.Smith KC 493 38 531

This DYAR statistic benefits durable quarterbacks who are heavily involved (pass or run) with most plays, such as Ben Roethlisberger, rather than ones who hand off more, such as Tony Romo (early in 2014) or Russell Wilson. They have a second measure, DVOA, under which Romo’s passing looks better than Roethlisberger’s:

DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.

And here’s ESPN’s proprietary QBR system:

1 Tony Romo, DAL 82.7
2 Aaron Rodgers, GB 82.6
3 Peyton Manning, DEN 77.2
4 Tom Brady, NE 74.3
5 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 72.5
6 Drew Brees, NO 71.6
7 Eli Manning, NYG 70.9
8 Joe Flacco, BAL 67.3
9 Matt Ryan, ATL 67.0
10 Philip Rivers, SD 66.8
11 Andrew Luck, IND 63.8
12 Russell Wilson, SEA 62.4
13 Nick Foles, PHI 62.2
14 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 59.1
15 Mark Sanchez, PHI 58.2
16 Cam Newton, CAR 56.9
17 Colin Kaepernick, SF 55.9
18 Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU 55.3
19 Andy Dalton, CIN 55.2
20 Matthew Stafford, DET 55.1

It remains fascinating that after decades of Establishment campaigning for more black quarterbacks in the NFL, year after year we wind up with results like this, with Russell Wilson, last year’s Super Bowl winner, the only black quarterback to be clearly in the league’s elite.

Perhaps there has been a huge subterranean shift among large white youths and their football savvy dads toward: Go quarterback or go do some other kind of sport.

For example, the best football player of my high school class was about 6’3″ and 220 pounds. He played, as I vaguely recall, defensive end and tight end, so he could knock guys down. He was a smart guy (he’s an architect today), although it was kind of hard to tell back then because, as he joked at a high school reunion, at the time he totally bought into his coaches telling him not to worry about all that pussy book stuff when the important thing in life was knocking guys down.

Forty years ago it didn’t seem implausible that a white kid of that size and strength could wind up playing, say, defense in the NFL. Sure, the trend in the early Seventies was toward more and more blacks at most positions, but that was simply catching up for past discrimination, right? The Eighties, in contrast, would surely be an age of racial equality in which the natural equality of the races will cause the distribution of positions by race to stabilize.

Well, that racial stabilization didn’t happen and NFL positions became more segregated by race over time.

And, over the decades, white people have drawn lessons from that. Such as: if your son is tall, strong, and fairly fast, his best hope of a college and, especially, pro football career is at quarterback. So you’d better start sending him to quarterback summer camps young and if he shows promise, hire him his own quarterbacking tutor.

If quarterback doesn’t seem to be working out for him, well, there are a lot of other sports where his traits are wanted and the competition from African-Americans is much less fierce.

 
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  1. Don’t forget placekicker. I was in a bar one weekend this fall and a game between two HBCU’s was on the TV and I happened to notice that they both had white kickers.

    • Replies: @PenskeFile
    I had a similar experience a couple weeks ago when I attended a Texas 6A state semifinal game between Cedar Hill and Spring Westfield. These are two elite high school football programs in the state and Cedar Hill went on to beat Katy for the state title the following week.

    I scanned the sidelines for Westfield and could only ID one white player - the kicker/punter. For Cedar Hill, their kicker was hispanic and everyone else was black. Both teams had a smattering of whites in their marching bands, but as far as I could tell, no white cheerleaders. No male cheerleaders either as I don't think that would go down too well in their "vibrant" community. Cedar Hill did have a spirit group of black males who ran with their large flags onto the field and after scores.

    My son's Catholic high school in Austin meanwhile, now has a male cheerleader who is obviously gay as hell and performs the same routines as the girls. It's quite amusing to watch, but at least he's not wearing a skirt (yet)

    A few years back I watched Lufkin with Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys. This is a team in "Deep East Texas" as we call it. Almos their entire football team was black, yet almost all of the cheerleaders and drill team were white.
    , @Anonymous
    Is it true that blacks have trouble placekicking footballs because of the shape of their feet? I've heard that the ridges that they have on their feet can make placekicking harder for them.
  2. College football has become big business. Let’s stop calling it college football and remove the requirement for “players” to attend classes or even be enrolled. Let’s call it “college sponsored professional football.”

    If a college (university) wanted to have a “student” team, then we should place the academics first and the athleticism somewhere down the list. If the school’s SAT 50% is 1,000, then to be eligible, the student’s SAT needs to be at least 1,000, else the student’s grades might suffer.

  3. Just look how tall MLB pitchers are now. Tons of 6’3 – 6’5 white guys pitching in MLB, making millions.
    There’s also an increasing # of 6’2, 6’3+ guys in the NHL.

    In football, the QB and TE still skew white.

    Seems pretty clear that elite hand-eye coordination skews white. Asians also have elite fine motor control, but generally lack the size. Which is why baseball is the only major pro sport in America where asians regularly perform at an elite, all-star level.

    • Replies: @Jokah Macpherson
    In addition to the millions, Kate Upton is icing on the cake.
    , @ben tillman

    Just look how tall MLB pitchers are now. Tons of 6’3 – 6’5 white guys pitching in MLB, making millions.
     
    There's a huge amount of prejudice against shorter players at every position in baseball.
    , @Anonymous
    Shouldn't there be an Asian Rory McElroy coming out of California soon?
  4. On the other hand, the second best wide receiver (and the second most valuable skill player overall apparently) was Jordy Nelson. Although he’s an aberration, the second best white wide receiver was Edelman, at 32nd .

  5. With fine motor control — pitching a baseball, throwing a football, hitting a golf ball, etc — it’s all about reproducibility.

    The more you can do the exact same movement every time, the better off you are. Because you can correct flaws. You can figure out what’s wrong, figure out what’s right, and do the exact same motion each time.

    With fine motor control, blacks often have too much random error in their movements. Impossible to correct the problem. Not an accident that an all-time great shooter like Ray Allen, who is black, has mild OCD.

    Obviously some blacks have elite fine motor control, just a lower % than with whites and asians. In NFL and NBA other skills often make up for that.

    There’s also a lot of mixed-race black guys who combine black athleticism with white fine motor control. Stephen Curry, for example, who’s probably only a quarter black.

    Half and quarter black athletes seem incredibly over-represented in elite sports compared even to black athletes. I thought only 20% of blacks were 50% or more white. That’s only a few % of the population, yet highly represented. Russel Wilson being one of them. The most successful “black” QBs in recent years have only been 25-50% black. Wilson, Kaepernick.

    • Replies: @Ed
    Both of Russell Wilson's parents are black. In fact he comes from a talented tenth black family, obviously he has some white admixture but it's not more than 50%.

    http://www.richmond.com/sports/article_47fd8579-220c-5270-8ef7-c09cc5f84b30.html

    Russell Wilson's story is being told because of his sporting success, but it is fundamentally about the power of education. His father, Harrison Wilson III, was nearly an NFL player himself, but also was a University of Virginia law school graduate and was committed to his son's schooling.

    So when Russell began to stand out on the football field against private school competition at Collegiate School, and offers came for him to transfer to bigger high schools at higher levels, Cougars coach Charlie McFall had no reason to worry.

    "Russell's dad came over one time and said, 'Charlie, I didn't put Russell at Collegiate for sports. I put him there to get an education, and that's No. 1. Sports will come,' " McFall said.
    That attitude had been passed down through generations.

    Russell Wilson's grandfather is Dr. Harrison B. Wilson, retired president of Norfolk State University.
    Dr. Wilson's grandfather was a slave to a Confederate colonel and was freed after the Civil War. At age 18, he moved to Kentucky and started a farm.

    He instilled the promise and idea of education in his 15 children, who in turn passed it on.
    "It was interesting that while he had a big farm and had money, they didn't think of that as being as important as an education," Dr. Wilson said in tapes that are part of Old Dominion University's collection of oral histories. "Most of us worked our way through college."
     
  6. I don’t have the stats in front of me but I remember reading that the NBA is about 85% African American and the NFL over 75%. (Black folks are about 13% of the total population, that has been the same for a long while.) At the same time, I think MLB was about 20% black but is now only 8%. I don’t know what to make of it.

    One thing that is looming here is the risk of CTE or other permanent injury. Football, unless it’s for QB, will become an option of last resort for kids who want a college education and/or to make money for a sizable but relatively poor family back home.

    Incidentally, there is a Football IQ of sorts, the Wonderlic test, which gives scores from 0-50. Supposedly, if you double the Wonderlic score and add 60, you get an equivalent to more traditional IQ scores. It seems fair to say that scoring in single digits on your Wonderlic is a pretty good predictor of failure in the NFL, for most positions including QB. However, Frank Gore, with a score of 5, has had a very nice career. On the other hand, both Terry Bradshaw (16) and Dan Marino (15) scored low, and had nice careers, while Colin Kaepernick, whose 37 Wonderlic would put him in the 1% IQ range certainly doesn’t play like it.

    http://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/The-Lowest-Wonderlic-Scores-In-NFL-History-10-206-2066

    http://www.therichest.com/sports/football-sports/10-worst-wonderlic-scores-in-nfl-history/

    • Replies: @Sunbeam
    "One thing that is looming here is the risk of CTE or other permanent injury. "

    This is a big one right here. If I had a kid I really don't think I would want him to play football.

    I also think white kids basically just aren't that interested in sports anymore. Or at least the major sports. Maybe it's different in Texas or Ohio, but they just don't seem to be that into it where I live anymore.

    Another angle on this is you spend all this time and effort, and what is your reward (other than perhaps a college degree)? A contract with an NFL team? Unless you are drafted early you don't get any kind of big money contract.

    The average career is just under what it takes to qualify for an NFL pension (funny how that works).

    Let's say you are a late round pick and make an NFL team. You make what, say 400-450k? That isn't really a lot of money. Might go a long way in Green Bay, but not in DC, San Francisco, or New York.

    If you are like most people you usually have two sets of living arrangements: one in wherever you are from, and one where you are playing. You have to buy a car. And I suspect people laugh at you if you drive an economical one.

    Richie Incognito (among other things) showed us that veterans expect rookies and newer players to shell out bucks for their "elders."

    Just saying that unless you are one of a small number of NFL players (Brady, Manning, etc) you never make "real money." A guy employed by Goldman Sachs would probably laugh at what the average NFL player makes.

    If you really looked at it from an accounting standpoint, expected compensation, expected medical problems, length of career, it really seems like a dog of a job in a lot of ways.

    Plus depending on your position you might never get paid real money. No center or guard is going to sniff a contract like Denver gave Manning.

    Oh yeah, it's not widely reported, but it has happened enough time that there has to be a fire somewhere sending out smoke.

    The case of black players not being "black" enough. Jonathan Martin, Russell Wilson this past season.

    Part of it is a class thing as well. Of course some people can code switch at the drop of a hat, as the Seattle cornerback shows.

    , @ben tillman

    I don’t have the stats in front of me but I remember reading that the NBA is about 85% African American
     
    Careful with your PC jargon. "Black" and "African-American" are not the same thing. There are several dozen foreign Black players in the NBA.

    The NBA is 20% White.
  7. Black quarterbacks tend to have a spectacular season (or two at most) and then flame out in epic fashion before finishing their careers in wildly inconsistent fashion as turnover producing machines (Michael Vick is exhibit A for this phenomenon).

    And even when black quarterbacks go on winning streaks they still don’t really throw many actual touchdown passes. AFAIK, only Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham and Dante Culpepper are black NFL quarterbacks who have thrown for 30+ TD passes in a year, and none of those guys did it more than twice. In contrast, both Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo already have 4 seasons of 30+ TD passes, Tom Brady has 5 and Drew Brees has done accomplished that for 7 straight years.

    Michael Vick’s high in TD passes for a season is a paltry 21. Neither Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick nor Robert Griffin 3 have even thrown for 25 TD passes in a season yet, either.

    • Replies: @angus
    And doesn't your summary, even for Brady, highlight how awesome Randy Moss was? He brought Cunningham and Brady to the next level and was the only thing separating Culpepper from total mediocrity (at best).
  8. steve,
    have you looked at the wonderlic scores by position?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderlic_test

    “the average score of a NFL player according to position is the following:

    Offensive tackle – 26
    Center – 25
    Quarterback – 24
    Guard – 23
    Tight end – 22
    Safety – 19
    Linebacker – 19
    Cornerback – 18
    Wide receiver – 17
    Fullback – 17
    Halfback – 16”

    i think we could do a pretty nice white to black gradient with this data.

    • Replies: @Bugg
    Ol guys tend to either be white or very intelligent regardless of race. You have to concentrate to understand snap counts, blacking schemes, memorize plays and assignments, work out like crazy, et al. There are exceptions like Michael Oher of "The Blind Side" fame. Even black guys who play OL tend to come from privileged backgrounds. Jonathan Ogden, who figures to get into the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible, is the son of an attorney, as is Jonathan Martin. You do have yahoo knuckle headed white guys like Richie Incognito or Kyle Turley, but they are increasingly the exception. In the 1970s the San Diego Chargers did a study of the kinds of personalities that are found at the various positions. It corresponds closely to this wonderlic data.
    , @keypusher
    Two interesting points -- one, that data is from the 80s. Would be nice to see updated data. Two, a civil rights lawyer recently "persuaded" the NFL recently to give another test in addition to the Wonderlic -- one with less disparate impact, presumably. Might be an interesting topic for Steve, since the same test apparently is being touted for firefighters.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2013/02/17/nfl-combine-aptitude-test/1926409/
    , @anon
    Where do the defensive linemen rank? Defensive tackles and ends don't seem to be on that list.
  9. MLB’s demographics is the only one that roughly mirrors the demographics of America.

    The rise of soccer among the white middle class can also be seen as a move to add a middle-distance endurance component that favors whites over the more sprinting-dominant blacks.

    At some I expect the media to notice that.

    • Replies: @Honorary Thief
    I often wonder if the NFL will end up with a really smart commissioner who realizes that whites have an endurance advantage and makes subtle rule changes to speed up the game (based on the completely plausibly deniable idea that a whiter NFL will have more non-black fans).
  10. @SPMoore8
    I don't have the stats in front of me but I remember reading that the NBA is about 85% African American and the NFL over 75%. (Black folks are about 13% of the total population, that has been the same for a long while.) At the same time, I think MLB was about 20% black but is now only 8%. I don't know what to make of it.

    One thing that is looming here is the risk of CTE or other permanent injury. Football, unless it's for QB, will become an option of last resort for kids who want a college education and/or to make money for a sizable but relatively poor family back home.

    Incidentally, there is a Football IQ of sorts, the Wonderlic test, which gives scores from 0-50. Supposedly, if you double the Wonderlic score and add 60, you get an equivalent to more traditional IQ scores. It seems fair to say that scoring in single digits on your Wonderlic is a pretty good predictor of failure in the NFL, for most positions including QB. However, Frank Gore, with a score of 5, has had a very nice career. On the other hand, both Terry Bradshaw (16) and Dan Marino (15) scored low, and had nice careers, while Colin Kaepernick, whose 37 Wonderlic would put him in the 1% IQ range certainly doesn't play like it.

    http://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/The-Lowest-Wonderlic-Scores-In-NFL-History-10-206-2066

    http://www.therichest.com/sports/football-sports/10-worst-wonderlic-scores-in-nfl-history/

    “One thing that is looming here is the risk of CTE or other permanent injury. ”

    This is a big one right here. If I had a kid I really don’t think I would want him to play football.

    I also think white kids basically just aren’t that interested in sports anymore. Or at least the major sports. Maybe it’s different in Texas or Ohio, but they just don’t seem to be that into it where I live anymore.

    Another angle on this is you spend all this time and effort, and what is your reward (other than perhaps a college degree)? A contract with an NFL team? Unless you are drafted early you don’t get any kind of big money contract.

    The average career is just under what it takes to qualify for an NFL pension (funny how that works).

    Let’s say you are a late round pick and make an NFL team. You make what, say 400-450k? That isn’t really a lot of money. Might go a long way in Green Bay, but not in DC, San Francisco, or New York.

    If you are like most people you usually have two sets of living arrangements: one in wherever you are from, and one where you are playing. You have to buy a car. And I suspect people laugh at you if you drive an economical one.

    Richie Incognito (among other things) showed us that veterans expect rookies and newer players to shell out bucks for their “elders.”

    Just saying that unless you are one of a small number of NFL players (Brady, Manning, etc) you never make “real money.” A guy employed by Goldman Sachs would probably laugh at what the average NFL player makes.

    If you really looked at it from an accounting standpoint, expected compensation, expected medical problems, length of career, it really seems like a dog of a job in a lot of ways.

    Plus depending on your position you might never get paid real money. No center or guard is going to sniff a contract like Denver gave Manning.

    Oh yeah, it’s not widely reported, but it has happened enough time that there has to be a fire somewhere sending out smoke.

    The case of black players not being “black” enough. Jonathan Martin, Russell Wilson this past season.

    Part of it is a class thing as well. Of course some people can code switch at the drop of a hat, as the Seattle cornerback shows.

  11. Wtf, Geno Smith aint on the list.

  12. What about the increase of quality white wide receivers in the NFL over the last decade or so?

    By the mid-to-late eighties, it seemed as though WR was on its way to becoming an exclusively back position (along with tailback and cornerback).

    The entire decade of the 90s produced only three WRs that even die hard football fans would recognize by name -Wayne Chrebet, Ed McCaffrey, and Ricky Proehl.

    There are more good WRs who are white guys in the NFL right now- Jordy Nelson (91 catches, 1,519 yards, 13 touchdowns) Wes Welker (5 seasons with 100+ catches and 1000+ yards), Eric Decker (74, 962, 5), Julian Edelman (92, 972, 4), and Riley Cooper (55, 577,3)
    Add receiving tight ends to the mix and you also have Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olson, Jason Witten, and Travis Kelce.

    While certainly not an even split, it’s a curious trend nonetheless.
    Did white guys get faster?
    Did rule changes protecting receivers over the middle of the field benefit big white guys who are only a step slower than their black competitors?
    Did NFL scouts lessen their bias against white players competing at positions where conventional wisdom says you need black guys if you expect to win?

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    While certainly not an even split, it’s a curious trend nonetheless.
    Did white guys get faster?
     
    Part of it may be that there are simply more wide receivers total (more 3- and 4-WR sets) and more passes/receptions to be split among the receivers.
  13. Anonymous • Disclaimer says: • Website

    actually, the numbers of black QBs at the high school and college level continues to grow. And truthfully they do a pretty good job of it. That is because the high school/college game is much much different from the NFL game.

    In the NFL game if you cannot hurt the defense by throwing from the pocket, then you will not get much playing time.

    In the college game, everything is much simpler, and a running QB makes more sense because the defenses are not as good at hitting the QB. Truthfully, if I were a college or high school FB coach, I would prefer a black qb. It is easier to find a strong, athletic, QB with a good arm who is black than it is to find the right white QB and develop him. It takes time to develop that tall white QB who can pick apart defenses from the pocket. Why spend all that time and effort when you can just find a decent black QB who can run and pass, but who cannot really pick apart a defense from the pocket? You don’t really need to do that in high school or college. Compared to the tall white pocket QB, a black qb who has a strong arm and can run is a dime a dozen. Find one and simplify the offense.

    To reach the top of the NFL game requires intelligence, mental discipline and a grinding work ethic, and other things, too.

    Black QBs can often do OK for the first few games or even for a year or two, but once the other teams get enough video of him, they can almost always shut him down.

    But intelligence, mental discipline and a grinding work ethic? That is kryptonite to almost all blacks.

    The black qbs that do succeed past the first couple of NFL years of their career are either about half white (Russell Wilson) or they have freakish physical gifts (Cam Newton, Donovan McNabb).

    The problem is that even for the NFL it takes time to develop those tall white QBs who can pick you apart from the pocket. And most do not pan out. That can kill a coaching career. That is why the NFL drafts so many black qb’s even though almost all the top QBs in the NFL are white.

    You do see a lot more white players being receivers and defensive ends these days.

  14. @Chang
    MLB's demographics is the only one that roughly mirrors the demographics of America.

    The rise of soccer among the white middle class can also be seen as a move to add a middle-distance endurance component that favors whites over the more sprinting-dominant blacks.

    At some I expect the media to notice that.

    I often wonder if the NFL will end up with a really smart commissioner who realizes that whites have an endurance advantage and makes subtle rule changes to speed up the game (based on the completely plausibly deniable idea that a whiter NFL will have more non-black fans).

  15. Let’s say you are a late round pick and make an NFL team. You make what, say 400-450k? That isn’t really a lot of money. Might go a long way in Green Bay, but not in DC, San Francisco, or New York.

    Huh?

    That kind of salary is in the top .0000001 % of the top 1% in the USA. We’re talking about 21 year old kids here, not Goldman Sachs analysts in their 10th year with the firm.

    • Replies: @BurplesonAFB
    You're 7 orders of magnitude off. 400k is almost exactly the cut off for 1%er income (394k in 2013).

    Do you actually not know anyone who makes 400k a year? The guy who inherited his fathers plumbing company? Successful insurance guy? nobody?
    , @ben tillman

    Huh?

    That kind of salary is in the top .0000001 % of the top 1% in the USA.
     
    One in a hundred billion Americans earns 400-450k per year? And you're making fun of his numbers?
  16. College football coaches as well as pro coaches and scouts are, for the most part, anti-White. Barry Switzer, former NFL and college coach, recently said he’d never have a white quarterback on his team (he forgot about Troy Aikman). Other coaches have made similar quotes that if made against any group but Euro-Americans would result in an automatic firing. Watch Mark Wahlberg’s movie “Invincible” to get a small picture of what goes on in American football.

    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    That quote might be an impressive smoking gun coming from someone other than Barry Switzer, the guy probably holds the title of worst head coach to ever win a Super Bowl. He basically got the job after Jerry Jones de facto fired Jimmy Johnson after he built a young dynasty and won two straight Super Bowls in the early 1990's, and Jones wanted an empty suit he could control, instead of the very intelligent and independent Johnson who he couldn't. Even with the superior talent Dallas possessed over Pittsburgh in the one SB Switzer "won" SB XXX, they were very nearly beat by the underachieving Neil O'Donnell at QB, until he threw two late inexplicable picks when the Cowboys were flailing late in the game.

    Barry Switzer never got another head coaching job in the NFL after Jones fired him after four seasons. Evidently things were so bad between Troy Aikman and Barry Switzer during the Super Bowl year that Aikman didn't speak to Switzer the entire second half of the season including the playoffs, that might be we he "forgot" about Aikman. The Cowboys literally had so much talent that even with a horrible pro coach like Switzer who his QB refused to talk too still won the SB, but that team's talent was Johnson's doing, not Jerry Jones the owner who fired him. I think Switzer won one playoff game the following season before being eliminated and then was fired the following year, since then with Jones the de facto GM of the Cowboys they have a single postseason victory in 16 seasons.
  17. Let’s say you are a late round pick and make an NFL team. You make what, say 400-450k? That isn’t really a lot of money.

    Dumbest comment of the year.

    • Replies: @Sunbeam
    You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let's make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven't thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don't.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn't married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more... expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren't smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I've written.

    Otherwise, just shut up.
    , @DPG
    It's only the 2nd day of the year, but you may be right. 400k a year is more than a 90 IQ person would make in ten years doing most things. Comparing the earnings expectations of Billy from the Florida panhandle to those of Eli from Manhattan is ridiculous.
  18. For example, the best football player of my high school class was about 6’3″ and 220 pounds. He played, as I vaguely recall, defensive end and tight end, so he could knock guys down…..Forty years ago it didn’t seem implausible that a white kid of that size and strength could wind up playing, say, defense in the NFL.

    As an example of the evolution of size in football, I am reminded of my father playing second string center for his college in the ’30s at 6′ and 155 pounds. By contrast, I once had a conversation with a high school teacher who said that in the early 1980s, when he was starting college, he decided that he was too small to continue playing football. He had played offensive line in high school at 6’3″ and 240 pounds.

  19. The throwing ability of a Rodgers, Brady, Manning, etc., is more than just practice. It’s also a gift, that few have, and size has nothing to do with it. Their size is a bonus that helped get them to where they are today. Bree’s and Wilson are of average size but have great throwing ability, as well.

  20. Barry Switzer, former NFL and college coach, recently said he’d never have a white quarterback on his team (he forgot about Troy Aikman).

    Pretty sure he only said that because he moved Oklahoma back to the Wishbone offense after Aikman got hurt, and then stuck with it because it worked under Jamielle Holloway. Switzer had nothing but white quarterbacks in the NFL.

    • Replies: @me
    Oklahoma played Stanford in '81 or '82. Switzer said John Elway was the best college QB he'd ever seen.
  21. @Chang
    With fine motor control -- pitching a baseball, throwing a football, hitting a golf ball, etc -- it's all about reproducibility.

    The more you can do the exact same movement every time, the better off you are. Because you can correct flaws. You can figure out what's wrong, figure out what's right, and do the exact same motion each time.

    With fine motor control, blacks often have too much random error in their movements. Impossible to correct the problem. Not an accident that an all-time great shooter like Ray Allen, who is black, has mild OCD.

    Obviously some blacks have elite fine motor control, just a lower % than with whites and asians. In NFL and NBA other skills often make up for that.

    There's also a lot of mixed-race black guys who combine black athleticism with white fine motor control. Stephen Curry, for example, who's probably only a quarter black.

    Half and quarter black athletes seem incredibly over-represented in elite sports compared even to black athletes. I thought only 20% of blacks were 50% or more white. That's only a few % of the population, yet highly represented. Russel Wilson being one of them. The most successful "black" QBs in recent years have only been 25-50% black. Wilson, Kaepernick.

    Both of Russell Wilson’s parents are black. In fact he comes from a talented tenth black family, obviously he has some white admixture but it’s not more than 50%.

    http://www.richmond.com/sports/article_47fd8579-220c-5270-8ef7-c09cc5f84b30.html

    Russell Wilson’s story is being told because of his sporting success, but it is fundamentally about the power of education. His father, Harrison Wilson III, was nearly an NFL player himself, but also was a University of Virginia law school graduate and was committed to his son’s schooling.

    So when Russell began to stand out on the football field against private school competition at Collegiate School, and offers came for him to transfer to bigger high schools at higher levels, Cougars coach Charlie McFall had no reason to worry.

    “Russell’s dad came over one time and said, ‘Charlie, I didn’t put Russell at Collegiate for sports. I put him there to get an education, and that’s No. 1. Sports will come,’ ” McFall said.
    That attitude had been passed down through generations.

    Russell Wilson’s grandfather is Dr. Harrison B. Wilson, retired president of Norfolk State University.
    Dr. Wilson’s grandfather was a slave to a Confederate colonel and was freed after the Civil War. At age 18, he moved to Kentucky and started a farm.

    He instilled the promise and idea of education in his 15 children, who in turn passed it on.
    “It was interesting that while he had a big farm and had money, they didn’t think of that as being as important as an education,” Dr. Wilson said in tapes that are part of Old Dominion University’s collection of oral histories. “Most of us worked our way through college.”

  22. There does seem to have been a rise in white WRs in the last decade. The big white TE is quite common, but the small quick white WR is more common in 2014 than I would have predicted 20 years ago. Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like. Precision, timing, and good hands.

    The deep ball star WR — tall, lanky, fast and able to jump — seems exclusively black.

    I think the rules limiting defense have opened a space for some of these white WRs to compete better. Not sure how exactly.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    "Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like."

    Howard Twilley in 1965 in a ten game season for U. of Tulsa caught 134 passes for 1779 yards, which were just sci-fi statistics in college back then. I saw him in the Senior Bowl after that season and he was amazing at catching the ball in traffic. He was small, slow, and white, so he was only drafted in 12th round by the Miami Dolphins. He wound up playing 11 years for Miami, catching a touchdown pass in a Super Bowl win. An electrical engineering major, he earned an MBA in the off season, and got rich owning a chain of shoe stores.

    , @anon

    the small quick white WR is more common in 2014 than I would have predicted 20 years ago. Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like. Precision, timing, and good hands
     
    Precision, timing and good hands can be drilled into a kid. If the number of white wide receivers has been increasing, that would fit Steve's thesis.

    A lot of people in the comments have made assertions about whether the number of whites at this or that position is more or less than in the past. Does anyone have hard numbers, or are these just impressionistic statements? My own impression is that there have always been a lot of receivers in the NFL who were not particularly fast but succeeded because of their precision, timing and hands, and a lot of them have been white.
  23. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Forty years ago it didn’t seem implausible that a white kid of that size and strength could wind up playing, say, defense in the NFL.

    The fact that colleges are used as a stepping stone to the NFL, and the subsequent fact that the academic standards for whites and blacks in college football are dramatically different, are what skews the NFL so much towards black players. The same thing can be seen happening in the NBA, which also employs colleges as feeder teams. Baseball, which employs a completely different junior league system, is not dominated by black players. But if it used colleges as feeder teams then it too would be almost entirely black.

    If you’re a big, strong, fast, dumb, white guy, you don’t get into college and you never get the chance to progress to the NFL. If you’re a big, strong, fast, dumb black guy then colleges will compete to sign you and and will make up fake courses to keep up the fig leaf of your being a “student-athlete”.

    • Replies: @Marty T
    If the standards are different it's because they have to be, because blacks and whites have different academic profiles. But I don't think it's accurate that there's a significant number of really dumb athletic whites that can play college sports. And if there were, they'd definitely get in somewhere, because coaches want to win. There probably aren't that many great white athletes with IQ well under 100.
  24. Russell Wilson is still in the 2nd tier of elite quarterbacks, mainly due to low number of pass attempts. This year is the first that he’s ranked in the top 15 in attempts per game.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    But he could win a second straight Super Bowl, so I'm not going to say something bad about him and look dumb in a month. Plus he's less than 6 feet tall, so I like him for the same reason I liked Doug Flutie.
  25. @Chang
    There does seem to have been a rise in white WRs in the last decade. The big white TE is quite common, but the small quick white WR is more common in 2014 than I would have predicted 20 years ago. Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like. Precision, timing, and good hands.

    The deep ball star WR -- tall, lanky, fast and able to jump -- seems exclusively black.

    I think the rules limiting defense have opened a space for some of these white WRs to compete better. Not sure how exactly.

    “Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like.”

    Howard Twilley in 1965 in a ten game season for U. of Tulsa caught 134 passes for 1779 yards, which were just sci-fi statistics in college back then. I saw him in the Senior Bowl after that season and he was amazing at catching the ball in traffic. He was small, slow, and white, so he was only drafted in 12th round by the Miami Dolphins. He wound up playing 11 years for Miami, catching a touchdown pass in a Super Bowl win. An electrical engineering major, he earned an MBA in the off season, and got rich owning a chain of shoe stores.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    How can you remember Howard Twilley? You were 7 years old.
  26. You can just look a Wilson to see how much euro descent he has. If he’s more than 50% black it’s just barely. His hair and facial features aren’t very African. His father appears to be less black than the son.

    Remember, in America, people with more than about 30% of African ancestry tend to ID as black. Recent study had the cut-off line at 28% Wilson’s farther appears to be less than half black and his mom more than half and he’s probably around half. The picture I saw of Wilson’s grandpa is a very light-skinned black guy — classic NAACP leadership from that era light-skinned.

  27. @Camlost
    Russell Wilson is still in the 2nd tier of elite quarterbacks, mainly due to low number of pass attempts. This year is the first that he's ranked in the top 15 in attempts per game.

    But he could win a second straight Super Bowl, so I’m not going to say something bad about him and look dumb in a month. Plus he’s less than 6 feet tall, so I like him for the same reason I liked Doug Flutie.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    I wonder if there'll ever be an NFL GM who tries a moneyball move by giving away height. One of the challenges for short QBs is seeing over their offensive lines. What if you drafted shorter offensive linemen? Strong, power lifter types who average 6' or 6'2" instead of 6'4" or 6'5"? Then you could consider sub-6' QBs. You'd have cash leftover for a deeper team, and you could maybe run a faster tempo offense since your smaller linemen might have better endurance.
    , @Jokah Macpherson
    Where is your tall person solidarity???
  28. Steve pls write about feminist shaming of male nerds/geeks.

    http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/01/untitled/

  29. @rivelino
    steve,
    have you looked at the wonderlic scores by position?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderlic_test

    "the average score of a NFL player according to position is the following:

    Offensive tackle – 26
    Center – 25
    Quarterback – 24
    Guard – 23
    Tight end – 22
    Safety – 19
    Linebacker – 19
    Cornerback – 18
    Wide receiver – 17
    Fullback – 17
    Halfback – 16"

    i think we could do a pretty nice white to black gradient with this data.

    Ol guys tend to either be white or very intelligent regardless of race. You have to concentrate to understand snap counts, blacking schemes, memorize plays and assignments, work out like crazy, et al. There are exceptions like Michael Oher of “The Blind Side” fame. Even black guys who play OL tend to come from privileged backgrounds. Jonathan Ogden, who figures to get into the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible, is the son of an attorney, as is Jonathan Martin. You do have yahoo knuckle headed white guys like Richie Incognito or Kyle Turley, but they are increasingly the exception. In the 1970s the San Diego Chargers did a study of the kinds of personalities that are found at the various positions. It corresponds closely to this wonderlic data.

    • Replies: @EriK

    You do have yahoo knuckle headed white guys like Richie Incognito or Kyle Turley, but they are increasingly the exception.
     
    Incognito is unquestionably a knucklehead but his Wonderlic score was 32 (!).
    , @Ron Mexico
    The HOF beat you to it, Ogden was enshrined in 2013. Surprised Steve didn't notice your slighting of a UCLA great.
  30. @Jokah Macpherson
    Don't forget placekicker. I was in a bar one weekend this fall and a game between two HBCU's was on the TV and I happened to notice that they both had white kickers.

    I had a similar experience a couple weeks ago when I attended a Texas 6A state semifinal game between Cedar Hill and Spring Westfield. These are two elite high school football programs in the state and Cedar Hill went on to beat Katy for the state title the following week.

    I scanned the sidelines for Westfield and could only ID one white player – the kicker/punter. For Cedar Hill, their kicker was hispanic and everyone else was black. Both teams had a smattering of whites in their marching bands, but as far as I could tell, no white cheerleaders. No male cheerleaders either as I don’t think that would go down too well in their “vibrant” community. Cedar Hill did have a spirit group of black males who ran with their large flags onto the field and after scores.

    My son’s Catholic high school in Austin meanwhile, now has a male cheerleader who is obviously gay as hell and performs the same routines as the girls. It’s quite amusing to watch, but at least he’s not wearing a skirt (yet)

    A few years back I watched Lufkin with Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys. This is a team in “Deep East Texas” as we call it. Almos their entire football team was black, yet almost all of the cheerleaders and drill team were white.

  31. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    This seems on topic. Surprised Steve never mentioned it before.

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/07/us/unc-academic-scandal/index.html

    “A former University of North Carolina football player has become the first to sue the university over an 18-year academic scandal that kept athletes eligible to play sports by taking classes that never met.”

    “Mike McAdoo was a football player who lost his eligibility in 2011 when he was accused of getting too much help with a paper, and was one of the first athletes revealed to have taken part in “paper classes,” for which the only requirement was completing a single paper.”

    Naturally they don’t mention race but the students in question are mostly blacks. Then ponder the fact that in spite of fake classes black student athletes still have a far worse graduation rate than white student athletes.

  32. @honesthughgrant

    Let’s say you are a late round pick and make an NFL team. You make what, say 400-450k? That isn’t really a lot of money.
     
    Dumbest comment of the year.

    You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let’s make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven’t thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don’t.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn’t married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more… expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren’t smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I’ve written.

    Otherwise, just shut up.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Also, you are going to suddenly find out you have all sorts of relatives and old friends who had your back.
    , @Peter Akuleyev
    You are trying to make two different arguments simultaneously. Your original point was that middle class kids wouldn't bother with football because "400k isn't a lot of money". That is a silly argument. A kid from a white middle class family will probably do very well on that income, because he will have learned some basic skills for saving and spending wisely. He will also know how to leverage his football career into a long term post football career whether in coaching, sports management or business. In fact most white offensive linemen do just fine after their careers are over. Your hypothetical rookie burning up his $450K is exactly the sort of inner city kid for whom $450K is a huge amount of money, and also not likely to be working for Goldman Sachs unless it is a janitorial position.
    , @Brutusale
    Not a sports fan, huh? Not aware of all the boilerplate perks, dictated by the collective bargaining agreements, loaded into the average pro sports contract?

    NFL rookies get a per diem of $925 from the first day of training camp until the week of the first game (veterans get $1,700). As has been pointed out, they also receive lavish meals in the locker room/clubhouse, and also receive "meal money" for meals that the team doesn't supply ($110/day in the NFL, $106 in MLB). NFL players get paid travel, food and lodging just for participating in off-season training programs. The get paid for participating in the rookie orientation program. They get moving and travel reimbursements when they're traded. They get paid for making weight. They get paid for a whole host of things that you would imagine were a matter of course to normal people but, NFL players being overgrown children, these things are incentivized.

    http://www.thefootballeducator.com/nfl-salary-cap-more-counting-on-player-benefits/
    , @Truth
    Yeah, and how many people make $450,000 4 months out of their junior year in college?
    , @donut
    ESPN's series 30 for 30 had an episode called "Broke' about how easy it is to end up broke with a multimillion dollar contract.
  33. While trying to find the Chargers’ 1970s personality thing, the Packers found roughly the same stuff in 2011- http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/120251309.html

  34. An interesting sport to look at from a race perspective is UFC. There’s a great fight tomorrow – LHW title, Jon Jones vs Cormier. Jones is tall black guy. Two brothers in the NFL. Cormier is a stocky black, Olympic wrestler.

    Blacks, whites, and latinos (esp of the Brazilian mix) have all had success in the UFC. Asians have not. Lot of the top black fighters have brought a quickness and speed advantage, but the nature of the sport means endurance really matters, which favors the white guys. The white guys often have an upper body muscle mass advantage. Both the speed of the black guy and the muscle mass of the white guy help with KO power. The asian fighters seem to bring neither. They can’t keep up with the speed of the black guys or the strength of the white guys.

    UFC is desperate to expand the market in Asia, so they really want an asian champion. So far no luck. They introduced a bunch of lighter weight classes — 145, 135, even 125 — hoping an asian could win. Instead it’s just black, white and brown Americans and Brazilians who keep winning.

    MMA was huge in Japan in the 90s with Pride. But when all the top Japanese stars kept getting their asses kicked, the Japanese fans lost interest. (The Yakuza connections to the fight business also brought the sport down, but I think if a Japanese star was kick American and Brazilian asses, the Japanese would have responded.)

    In MMA, big black guys can have a 2nd career making the regional circuits in Asia and Europe and getting beaten up — locals find a big, black guy scary — even if he’s old and broken down. Gary Goodridge and Bob Sapp had whole careers based off that. Big black guys sell well on the poster. They fought for a decade after they weren’t any good as fighter any more, but they were still an attraction.

  35. @honesthughgrant

    Let’s say you are a late round pick and make an NFL team. You make what, say 400-450k? That isn’t really a lot of money.
     
    Dumbest comment of the year.

    It’s only the 2nd day of the year, but you may be right. 400k a year is more than a 90 IQ person would make in ten years doing most things. Comparing the earnings expectations of Billy from the Florida panhandle to those of Eli from Manhattan is ridiculous.

  36. @Sunbeam
    You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let's make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven't thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don't.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn't married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more... expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren't smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I've written.

    Otherwise, just shut up.

    Also, you are going to suddenly find out you have all sorts of relatives and old friends who had your back.

    • Replies: @anon
    ESPN had a great documentary (called "Broke") about why most pro athletes end up broke. The three reasons: flashy living, bad investments, and friends and family. F&F are a double whammy because they want you to buy them things, and they twist your arm to invest in their businesses that fail. The most surprising (to me) ex-athlete appearing on the show: Bernie Kosar, who had been paying for houses for an enormous crowd of people.
  37. Twilley! Bilitnikoff! Somehow they always got open.

    PS nobody ever read the field faster than Marino.

  38. @Steve Sailer
    But he could win a second straight Super Bowl, so I'm not going to say something bad about him and look dumb in a month. Plus he's less than 6 feet tall, so I like him for the same reason I liked Doug Flutie.

    I wonder if there’ll ever be an NFL GM who tries a moneyball move by giving away height. One of the challenges for short QBs is seeing over their offensive lines. What if you drafted shorter offensive linemen? Strong, power lifter types who average 6′ or 6’2″ instead of 6’4″ or 6’5″? Then you could consider sub-6′ QBs. You’d have cash leftover for a deeper team, and you could maybe run a faster tempo offense since your smaller linemen might have better endurance.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    What's the advantage of very tall offensive linemen other than just a bigger frame to hang mass onto?
    , @Truth
    Shorter linemen usually mean shorter arms, which means that the defensive lineman are a few inches closer to the QB.
    , @Brutusale
    I was one of those short, power-lifter offensive lineman in high school. Line play is a battle for leverage, and the taller guy with the longer arms has a better chance of getting his hands one you first. Strength and leverage don't scale together.
  39. I always thought it would be a good idea in college recruiting if the billionaire booster (e.g., T. Boone Pickens for Oklahoma State or John Arrillaugua (sp?) for Stanford) personally guaranteed to a high school recruit’s mom that if her son made the NFL he would ensure he would always have access to honest, competent accounting and financial management services.

    • Replies: @IANAL
    Steve, I am fairly sure that your hypothetical quid pro quo would violate NCAA rules.
    , @CJ
    John Arrillaga, (the name is Basque BTW) whose daughter married Marc Andreesen.
  40. Camlost,

    Fewer pass attempts is common for younger QBs, even the good ones. Even QBs like Brady and Roethlisberger had quite a few less attempts their first couple of full seasons than in their prime. And they were playing in SBs early on also.

    I’m not saying that Wilson will be as good as them (I have no idea), but he may not be at his performance ceiling yet.

    Honestly, his lack of height is probably the biggest thing against him. Not sure if he is a good enough passer to overcome that, and his legs will start slowing down soon…

    —–

    It seems like good NFL QBs also tend to have good coaches and consistent offenses. When a young QB has to learn a new offense every year or two, unless he is just amazingly gifted, he is almost always doomed. I’m not sure the cause / effect arrow is purely in one direction. After all, a good QB will help a coach hold his job longer. But all the QBs at the top of that list have had a limited number of coaches, and the ones they have had are generally well respected…..

    • Replies: @Camlost

    Fewer pass attempts is common for younger QBs, even the good ones. Even QBs like Brady and Roethlisberger had quite a few less attempts their first couple of full seasons than in their prime.
     
    No, this is not really true for the 1st tier of elite throwing/statistical quarterbacks (Brees, Brady, Manning, maybe even Romo). Most truly elite quarterbacks just jump right in and take over the full-throttle offense when they finally become the starter, any tune-up or "lower usage" period they have is on the bench. Keep in mind that this doesn't mean quarterbacks like Roethlisberger or Eli Manning, who have numbers less sterling than other top quarterbacks but gain their status partly by their actual winning results. (which Romo hasn't done yet)

    Brady had a massive 601 pass attempts in his first full year as a starter. (3rd season) However, even in the year Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe for 14 games he still averaged nearly 30 per game. Brees had 526 his first year as a starter, Romo had 520 and Manning had an astonishing 575 attempts as a true rookie starter from week 1 in 1998.

    In contrast, Russell Wilson had 393 and 407 pass attempts in his first two years as a starter. And yes I do understand that Seattle is still primarily a running team but this still shows that the other elite quarterbacks in the NFL do way more damage with their arm from day 1 than Wilson has, if he gets additional passing opportunity over a course of years then that is a different trajectory than what most top 5 quarterbacks experience.
  41. @Dave Pinsen
    I wonder if there'll ever be an NFL GM who tries a moneyball move by giving away height. One of the challenges for short QBs is seeing over their offensive lines. What if you drafted shorter offensive linemen? Strong, power lifter types who average 6' or 6'2" instead of 6'4" or 6'5"? Then you could consider sub-6' QBs. You'd have cash leftover for a deeper team, and you could maybe run a faster tempo offense since your smaller linemen might have better endurance.

    What’s the advantage of very tall offensive linemen other than just a bigger frame to hang mass onto?

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    Others in this thread say longer arms and bigger hands, but you could still select for them among shorter linemen. Hands aren't always proportional - the standout Giants WR Odell Beckham is 5'11" but has 10" hands.
    , @Lackawanna
    Longer arms. They can push you and you can't push them back.
  42. What if you drafted shorter offensive linemen? Strong, power lifter types who average 6′ or 6’2″ instead of 6’4″ or 6’5″? Then you could consider sub-6′ QBs.

    It won’t work.

    Offensive lineman are now getting taller because it’s important to have long arms and big hands so that you can hold the defensive player at range to control him better. As a blocker, if the defensive player has already gotten into your body he can knock you down easier. You don’t want want a “bowling ball” offensive lineman who’s only strong and stumpy, you want someone who can leverage a defender backwards off the line from a distance and who can occasionally move down the line and lead out in front of a runner proceeding downfield.

    Hand size, wingspan and joint size are now measured and analyzed very carefully by NFL scouts.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    The tallest linemen tend not to be the best at pulling. And, I suspect they are more injury prone. the Giants traded for 6'6" Geoff Schwartz to beef up their line last year and they got 1.5 games out of him.
  43. Perhaps there has been a huge subterranean shift among large white youths and their football savvy dads toward: Go quarterback or go do some other kind of sport.

    Definitely. Especially after this:

  44. @Jokah Macpherson
    Don't forget placekicker. I was in a bar one weekend this fall and a game between two HBCU's was on the TV and I happened to notice that they both had white kickers.

    Is it true that blacks have trouble placekicking footballs because of the shape of their feet? I’ve heard that the ridges that they have on their feet can make placekicking harder for them.

  45. “You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let’s make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven’t thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don’t.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn’t married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more… expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren’t smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I’ve written.

    Otherwise, just shut up”

    Don’t forget that most Black rappers and most Black NBA/NFL players have an entourage. And an entourage is extremely expensive, especially if they are making only only $450,000 a year.

    $450,000 a year is a lot of money in Manhattan and Beverly Hills if you live like a cheap Jew for example, but we know the spending habits of Blacks is the extreme opposite of that of the stereotypical Jew.

    If you want to live the bling bling lifestyle of Birdman and Lil Wayne of overpaying for everything instead of looking for a good bargain like the Jews, than $450,000 a year ain’t shit in New York City and Los Angeles.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    The Giants training facility is right near MetLife stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. There's plenty of reasonably priced housing within a 20 minute drive of it in NJ. No need to pay NYC taxes of rent and I doubt many players do. I also doubt most rookies have entourages. And players get fed most of their meals by the team when they are training.
    , @EriK

    If you want to live the bling bling lifestyle of Birdman and Lil Wayne of overpaying for everything instead of looking for a good bargain like the Jews, than $450,000 a year ain’t shit in New York City and Los Angeles.
     
    I agree $450K isn't much for all the reasons you and others have mentioned, but last time I checked LA doesn't have a football team and I just watched the Wolf of Wall Street so the notion that all Jews are, er, frugal isn't working for me right now.
  46. @JJM
    Camlost,

    Fewer pass attempts is common for younger QBs, even the good ones. Even QBs like Brady and Roethlisberger had quite a few less attempts their first couple of full seasons than in their prime. And they were playing in SBs early on also.

    I'm not saying that Wilson will be as good as them (I have no idea), but he may not be at his performance ceiling yet.

    Honestly, his lack of height is probably the biggest thing against him. Not sure if he is a good enough passer to overcome that, and his legs will start slowing down soon...

    -----

    It seems like good NFL QBs also tend to have good coaches and consistent offenses. When a young QB has to learn a new offense every year or two, unless he is just amazingly gifted, he is almost always doomed. I'm not sure the cause / effect arrow is purely in one direction. After all, a good QB will help a coach hold his job longer. But all the QBs at the top of that list have had a limited number of coaches, and the ones they have had are generally well respected.....

    Fewer pass attempts is common for younger QBs, even the good ones. Even QBs like Brady and Roethlisberger had quite a few less attempts their first couple of full seasons than in their prime.

    No, this is not really true for the 1st tier of elite throwing/statistical quarterbacks (Brees, Brady, Manning, maybe even Romo). Most truly elite quarterbacks just jump right in and take over the full-throttle offense when they finally become the starter, any tune-up or “lower usage” period they have is on the bench. Keep in mind that this doesn’t mean quarterbacks like Roethlisberger or Eli Manning, who have numbers less sterling than other top quarterbacks but gain their status partly by their actual winning results. (which Romo hasn’t done yet)

    Brady had a massive 601 pass attempts in his first full year as a starter. (3rd season) However, even in the year Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe for 14 games he still averaged nearly 30 per game. Brees had 526 his first year as a starter, Romo had 520 and Manning had an astonishing 575 attempts as a true rookie starter from week 1 in 1998.

    In contrast, Russell Wilson had 393 and 407 pass attempts in his first two years as a starter. And yes I do understand that Seattle is still primarily a running team but this still shows that the other elite quarterbacks in the NFL do way more damage with their arm from day 1 than Wilson has, if he gets additional passing opportunity over a course of years then that is a different trajectory than what most top 5 quarterbacks experience.

  47. Article showing how much the NFL combine obsesses over physical measurables like hand size and arm length:

    http://www.fieldgulls.com/nfl-draft/2013/2/22/4016082/nfl-combine-2013-offensive-line-height-weight-arm-length-measurements

  48. iSteveFan says:

    At the same time, I think MLB was about 20% black but is now only 8%. I don’t know what to make of it.

    I don’t think those stats include Latino blacks. For example, Sammy Sosa is clearly black, or at least he was before his skin bleaching. Many of the Latin players in MLB are clearly the descendants of slaves such as Venezuelans Salvadore Perezand Alcides Escobar, who would be considered black had they been born in the USA.

  49. “An interesting sport to look at from a race perspective is UFC. There’s a great fight tomorrow – LHW title, Jon Jones vs Cormier. Jones is tall black guy. Two brothers in the NFL. Cormier is a stocky black, Olympic wrestler.

    Blacks, whites, and latinos (esp of the Brazilian mix) have all had success in the UFC. Asians have not. Lot of the top black fighters have brought a quickness and speed advantage, but the nature of the sport means endurance really matters, which favors the white guys. The white guys often have an upper body muscle mass advantage. Both the speed of the black guy and the muscle mass of the white guy help with KO power. The asian fighters seem to bring neither. They can’t keep up with the speed of the black guys or the strength of the white guys.

    UFC is desperate to expand the market in Asia, so they really want an asian champion. So far no luck. They introduced a bunch of lighter weight classes — 145, 135, even 125 — hoping an asian could win. Instead it’s just black, white and brown Americans and Brazilians who keep winning.

    MMA was huge in Japan in the 90s with Pride. But when all the top Japanese stars kept getting their asses kicked, the Japanese fans lost interest. (The Yakuza connections to the fight business also brought the sport down, but I think if a Japanese star was kick American and Brazilian asses, the Japanese would have responded.)

    In MMA, big black guys can have a 2nd career making the regional circuits in Asia and Europe and getting beaten up — locals find a big, black guy scary — even if he’s old and broken down. Gary Goodridge and Bob Sapp had whole careers based off that. Big black guys sell well on the poster. They fought for a decade after they weren’t any good as fighter any more, but they were still an attraction.”

    There is no UFC version of Manny Pacquiao when it comes to dominating the UFC with an iron fist. Not even in the lighter weight divisions, let alone in the heavier weight divisions.

    I can’t see some Filipino MMA fighter tackling down a Brock Lesnar or a Anderson The Spider Silva for example. Especially since Filipinos on average are even shorter in height than the Chinese.

    Filipinos are on some Guatemalan levels of shortness.

  50. What is the endgame for such discussions?

    Is there to be a definitive statement about each open topic, and if so, to what end?

  51. At the same time, I think MLB was about 20% black but is now only 8%. I don’t know what to make of it.

  52. At the same time, I think MLB was about 20% black but is now only 8%. I don’t know what to make of it.

    In the 1970’s the percentage of American Blacks in baseball was close to 30%.

    But nowadays American blacks are often too much of a management nightmare to endure, so most marginal or utility positions formerly filled by American blacks are now filled by Latins (including Black Latinos from the DR, Venezuela, etc.) who have better attitudes and may not speak enough English to even cause a potential problem if they wanted to do so.

    It’s getting to the point that the only American blacks left are the true stars with unique skills so important that they are worth the management headache and potential for insubordination.

    Black former MLB star and notoriously troublesome headcase Gary Sheffield has made a ton of comments about how American blacks are now supplanted by Latinos because they “are easier to control”. See this article.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2891875

    • Replies: @svigor fan
    Blacks never say what they really mean. The "controllability" issue with blacks in MLB is a supply problem, not a demand issue. That is, blacks dropped baseball because, in contrast to the rest of life where they're now exempt from white supervision, in baseball you have to take instruction from white coaches through the minor leagues. As a result of this collective decision by American blacks, Caribbean players are what baseball executives are left with. They might be relieved at the development, but they don't drive it.
  53. @Camlost

    What if you drafted shorter offensive linemen? Strong, power lifter types who average 6′ or 6’2″ instead of 6’4″ or 6’5″? Then you could consider sub-6′ QBs.
     
    It won't work.

    Offensive lineman are now getting taller because it's important to have long arms and big hands so that you can hold the defensive player at range to control him better. As a blocker, if the defensive player has already gotten into your body he can knock you down easier. You don't want want a "bowling ball" offensive lineman who's only strong and stumpy, you want someone who can leverage a defender backwards off the line from a distance and who can occasionally move down the line and lead out in front of a runner proceeding downfield.

    Hand size, wingspan and joint size are now measured and analyzed very carefully by NFL scouts.

    The tallest linemen tend not to be the best at pulling. And, I suspect they are more injury prone. the Giants traded for 6’6″ Geoff Schwartz to beef up their line last year and they got 1.5 games out of him.

    • Replies: @Camlost
    Yes, there's definitely a tradeoff between sheer stature and pulling ability with offensive lineman. Of course your most freakishly gifted combinations of size, mobility and strength are found at the absolutely crucial left tackle position in the NFL.

    However, the days of the short, stumpy offensive lineman are over. They get flagged for too many holding penalties under today's blocking rules because they can't use their arms to control the scary fast defensive lineman (like JJ Watt, etc.) that are on top of you in a second, pushing you back and leaving you no other choice but to hold across their body (or neck) to try to slow them down.
  54. @Jefferson
    "You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let’s make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven’t thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don’t.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn’t married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more… expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren’t smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I’ve written.

    Otherwise, just shut up"

    Don't forget that most Black rappers and most Black NBA/NFL players have an entourage. And an entourage is extremely expensive, especially if they are making only only $450,000 a year.

    $450,000 a year is a lot of money in Manhattan and Beverly Hills if you live like a cheap Jew for example, but we know the spending habits of Blacks is the extreme opposite of that of the stereotypical Jew.

    If you want to live the bling bling lifestyle of Birdman and Lil Wayne of overpaying for everything instead of looking for a good bargain like the Jews, than $450,000 a year ain't shit in New York City and Los Angeles.

    The Giants training facility is right near MetLife stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. There’s plenty of reasonably priced housing within a 20 minute drive of it in NJ. No need to pay NYC taxes of rent and I doubt many players do. I also doubt most rookies have entourages. And players get fed most of their meals by the team when they are training.

    • Replies: @Camlost
    Please don't interrupt his moment of glory. He thought he was giving us a unique revelation that we didn't know by asserting that black athletes and rappers are known for poor money management.
  55. @Dave Pinsen
    The tallest linemen tend not to be the best at pulling. And, I suspect they are more injury prone. the Giants traded for 6'6" Geoff Schwartz to beef up their line last year and they got 1.5 games out of him.

    Yes, there’s definitely a tradeoff between sheer stature and pulling ability with offensive lineman. Of course your most freakishly gifted combinations of size, mobility and strength are found at the absolutely crucial left tackle position in the NFL.

    However, the days of the short, stumpy offensive lineman are over. They get flagged for too many holding penalties under today’s blocking rules because they can’t use their arms to control the scary fast defensive lineman (like JJ Watt, etc.) that are on top of you in a second, pushing you back and leaving you no other choice but to hold across their body (or neck) to try to slow them down.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    Someone like J.J. Watt is going to be a challenge for any lineman, but there are other ways to block D lineman than for one tall guy to try to keep him at arms' length. You can trap him, double team him, cut him, etc.

    Another idea that would neutralize most pass rushers, but no one seems to have tried yet, is to play two QBs at the same time, so when one is threatened by a rusher he can lateral to the other. The fastest pass rusher is much slower than a thrown football.
  56. @Steve Sailer
    What's the advantage of very tall offensive linemen other than just a bigger frame to hang mass onto?

    Others in this thread say longer arms and bigger hands, but you could still select for them among shorter linemen. Hands aren’t always proportional – the standout Giants WR Odell Beckham is 5’11” but has 10″ hands.

    • Replies: @Edward
    Otto Graham, coach of the College All-Star Team in 1965 said that Bob Hayes was "a 9.1 sprinter with 12.5 hands."
  57. Not only are the best ten to fifteen QBs in the game white, so too are a majority of the best TEs (Gronk, Witten, Miller, Ertz) and slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, Beasley). The fastest receiver, and maybe one of the fastest players in the league is a white guy from Kansas (Jordy Nelson, Green Bay).

    But the best player in the game, and should-be winner of this year’s MVP award is JJ Watt, who plays a position normally dominated by black guys (defensive end), and dominates it.

  58. @Steve Sailer
    But he could win a second straight Super Bowl, so I'm not going to say something bad about him and look dumb in a month. Plus he's less than 6 feet tall, so I like him for the same reason I liked Doug Flutie.

    Where is your tall person solidarity???

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Hmm good question. Is there such a thing, outside of say, basketball squads?

    Because at Steve's height, he's pretty much guaranteed to be the tallest guy in almost every social situation he'll ordinarily encounter. It's instant command presence and social dominance. Other tall guys would only mitigate this.
  59. OK, for years we have seen that the spectacular, flashy black college QB has not panned out over the years in the NFL. However, if Jameis Winston declares for the draft, he will probably be drafted within the first 10 picks, actually top 5.

    Why have NFL general managers not learned this lesson? Risk/reward … I keep thinking about Jamarcus Russell, EJ Manuel, Vince Young, Terrelle Pryor etc……..

  60. Camlost:

    AFAIK, only Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham and Dante Culpepper are black NFL quarterbacks who have thrown for 30+ TD passes in a year, and none of those guys did it more than twice.

    Also Donovan McNabb in 2004.

    I would argue these are also the four most gifted black quarterbacks to ever play the position.

  61. @Chang
    Just look how tall MLB pitchers are now. Tons of 6'3 - 6'5 white guys pitching in MLB, making millions.
    There's also an increasing # of 6'2, 6'3+ guys in the NHL.

    In football, the QB and TE still skew white.

    Seems pretty clear that elite hand-eye coordination skews white. Asians also have elite fine motor control, but generally lack the size. Which is why baseball is the only major pro sport in America where asians regularly perform at an elite, all-star level.

    In addition to the millions, Kate Upton is icing on the cake.

  62. @Dave Pinsen
    The Giants training facility is right near MetLife stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. There's plenty of reasonably priced housing within a 20 minute drive of it in NJ. No need to pay NYC taxes of rent and I doubt many players do. I also doubt most rookies have entourages. And players get fed most of their meals by the team when they are training.

    Please don’t interrupt his moment of glory. He thought he was giving us a unique revelation that we didn’t know by asserting that black athletes and rappers are known for poor money management.

  63. @Camlost
    Yes, there's definitely a tradeoff between sheer stature and pulling ability with offensive lineman. Of course your most freakishly gifted combinations of size, mobility and strength are found at the absolutely crucial left tackle position in the NFL.

    However, the days of the short, stumpy offensive lineman are over. They get flagged for too many holding penalties under today's blocking rules because they can't use their arms to control the scary fast defensive lineman (like JJ Watt, etc.) that are on top of you in a second, pushing you back and leaving you no other choice but to hold across their body (or neck) to try to slow them down.

    Someone like J.J. Watt is going to be a challenge for any lineman, but there are other ways to block D lineman than for one tall guy to try to keep him at arms’ length. You can trap him, double team him, cut him, etc.

    Another idea that would neutralize most pass rushers, but no one seems to have tried yet, is to play two QBs at the same time, so when one is threatened by a rusher he can lateral to the other. The fastest pass rusher is much slower than a thrown football.

  64. “The Giants training facility is right near MetLife stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. There’s plenty of reasonably priced housing within a 20 minute drive of it in NJ. No need to pay NYC taxes of rent and I doubt many players do. I also doubt most rookies have entourages. And players get fed most of their meals by the team when they are training.”

    You doubt that most Black rookies have entourages and are living way beyond their means ? Than why do a whopping 70 percent of NFL players go broke after retiring ?

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    I doubt most black NFL rookies have entourages. Those probably come later.
    , @Brutusale
    Because by and large they're not very bright, and when they've been cut loose from the system that takes care of every particular for them, they're bereft.

    Former NFL player Tim Green talked about this in his book, The Dark Side of the Game. The first thing many high draft picks do after signing the big contract is buy an expensive ride. Green talks about how too many players drive the Escalade for a while, then flip it for something like a Mercedes, which they drive for a while and then flip it for a Ferrari. How much money do they lose every time the flip a high-end car?
  65. @Jokah Macpherson
    Where is your tall person solidarity???

    Hmm good question. Is there such a thing, outside of say, basketball squads?

    Because at Steve’s height, he’s pretty much guaranteed to be the tallest guy in almost every social situation he’ll ordinarily encounter. It’s instant command presence and social dominance. Other tall guys would only mitigate this.

  66. If any professional sport in the U.S was predominantly Jewish, it would be the sport with the least amount of players who go broke after retiring.

    On average nobody is better than the Jews when it comes to delaying instant gratification in regards to money. Jews with poor impulse control regarding their own personal money is about as common as Blacks who have light eyes, meaning not very common.

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Jews with poor impulse control regarding their own personal money is about as common as Blacks who have light eyes, meaning not very common.
     
    I must remind you that 50% of Jews are female.
  67. @Rich
    College football coaches as well as pro coaches and scouts are, for the most part, anti-White. Barry Switzer, former NFL and college coach, recently said he'd never have a white quarterback on his team (he forgot about Troy Aikman). Other coaches have made similar quotes that if made against any group but Euro-Americans would result in an automatic firing. Watch Mark Wahlberg's movie "Invincible" to get a small picture of what goes on in American football.

    That quote might be an impressive smoking gun coming from someone other than Barry Switzer, the guy probably holds the title of worst head coach to ever win a Super Bowl. He basically got the job after Jerry Jones de facto fired Jimmy Johnson after he built a young dynasty and won two straight Super Bowls in the early 1990’s, and Jones wanted an empty suit he could control, instead of the very intelligent and independent Johnson who he couldn’t. Even with the superior talent Dallas possessed over Pittsburgh in the one SB Switzer “won” SB XXX, they were very nearly beat by the underachieving Neil O’Donnell at QB, until he threw two late inexplicable picks when the Cowboys were flailing late in the game.

    Barry Switzer never got another head coaching job in the NFL after Jones fired him after four seasons. Evidently things were so bad between Troy Aikman and Barry Switzer during the Super Bowl year that Aikman didn’t speak to Switzer the entire second half of the season including the playoffs, that might be we he “forgot” about Aikman. The Cowboys literally had so much talent that even with a horrible pro coach like Switzer who his QB refused to talk too still won the SB, but that team’s talent was Johnson’s doing, not Jerry Jones the owner who fired him. I think Switzer won one playoff game the following season before being eliminated and then was fired the following year, since then with Jones the de facto GM of the Cowboys they have a single postseason victory in 16 seasons.

    • Replies: @shk12344
    I would nominate Mike Ditka as the worst coach to win Super Bowl trophy. With any decent coach, the 80's Bears would have won 2-3 Super Bowls. Alas, with Ditka at the helm even with their legendary defense, they could only win one. I still remember 2 playoff games where Bears, playing at home, were completely outplayed and outcoached by Joe Gibb's coached Washington Redskins.
  68. @Steve Sailer
    I always thought it would be a good idea in college recruiting if the billionaire booster (e.g., T. Boone Pickens for Oklahoma State or John Arrillaugua (sp?) for Stanford) personally guaranteed to a high school recruit's mom that if her son made the NFL he would ensure he would always have access to honest, competent accounting and financial management services.

    Steve, I am fairly sure that your hypothetical quid pro quo would violate NCAA rules.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Quite possibly, but that's the kind of paternalist thing that should definitely be allowed: putting unsophisticated poor people in touch with vetted hiqh quality money management.
  69. @IANAL
    Steve, I am fairly sure that your hypothetical quid pro quo would violate NCAA rules.

    Quite possibly, but that’s the kind of paternalist thing that should definitely be allowed: putting unsophisticated poor people in touch with vetted hiqh quality money management.

  70. iSteveFan says:

    What’s the advantage of very tall offensive linemen other than just a bigger frame to hang mass onto?

    Not that teams run a lot anymore, but taller offensive lineman make it harder for the defenders to follow the running back. If you can’t see him, a running back can hit a hole and be gone before the linebackers and safeties can react. In his prime Maurice Jones-Drew, who is short, had a similar advantage of defenders having a hard time seeing him prior to his breaking through the line.

    Tall offensive lineman also make it harder for the defenders to see the QB and RBs, so reverses and screens are harder to diagnose.

  71. Jews with poor impulse control regarding their own personal money is about as common as Blacks who have light eyes, meaning not very common.

    Over the years didn’t Jews with such poor qualities just end up being absorbed into the local gentile populations?

  72. Not only are the best ten to fifteen QBs in the game white, so too are a majority of the best TEs (Gronk, Witten, Miller, Ertz) and slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, Beasley). The fastest receiver, and maybe one of the fastest players in the league is a white guy from Kansas (Jordy Nelson, Green Bay).

    But the best player in the game, and should-be winner of this year’s MVP award is JJ Watt, who plays a position normally dominated by black guys (defensive end), and dominates it.

    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black “skill” positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white “deep threat” receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.

    If whites are so unsuited to playing wide receiver, you’d expect the only white guys good enough to make it as a pro to linger in the fringes, barely hacking it in the league. Yet the opposite is true: there are no mediocre white wide receivers, only stars. This certainly seems to imply that there is discrimination against whites at the wide receiver position: in order to make it as far as the NFL, a white dude doesn’t have to merely be as good as the average black dude who made it that far: he has to be far superior.

    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that’s more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end? Between getting a scholarship at a top college program and getting invited to the NFL combine, he never even sniffed getting a chance to play in the NFL, whereas many black athletes of similar talent are playing as we speak.

    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    You notice the same phenomenon among elite college football teams, Joey Bosa is the only white defensive starter on Ohio State's football team, and despite being a true sophomore, he is clearly the best defensive player on the team as well, if blacks truly had an overwhelming advantage on average, you wouldn't see white players playing at an elite level at all in these sports. However what you do see is bench-warmers and superstars only, which implies the great middle of white players are being ignored at the top tier collegiate level.

    The superstars like Watt and Bosa can't get ignored because they are too talented physically, but the guys who are often late bloomers are probably ending up at non-BCS schools, where they would be lucky to be drafted no matter how well they play, but if they stay at Big State U even if they get eventually noticed they won't have enough playing time to warrant a high pick in the draft either.This bias of course ripples through the pro football draft, because the high picks are taken overwhelmingly in the first couple rounds from these programs. If a good white player who is a late bloomer spends a lot of time on the bench, not many teams are going to take him high, notwithstanding a few exceptions like Clay Matthews Jr.'s son Clay Matthews III, who didn't start at USC until his senior year but managed to vault up to a late first rounder largely on the strength of that year and an outstanding combine ( Although being the son of a great player and the nephew of a Hall of Famer probably helped too. ) This implies like Steve did a long time ago in a post on the NFL and white players that there is an untapped talent pool out there for hard working college coach to exploit, curious if any will do that.
    , @keypusher
    At least as far as receivers, this claim (that only star white players can make it in the NFL) is nonsense. Look at the data for receving yards. Twenty-three receivers had more than 1,000 yards receiving. Three were white -- Jordy Nelson, Gronkowski, and Greg Olsen. One WR and two tight ends. Basically there is one elite white WR in pro football. I can think of several mediocre ones (Danny Amendola, Brian Hartline, Riley Cooper....). The whole point of tight end (and slot receiver, where whites also excel) is mismatches -- the best pass defenders cover the wideouts, and lesser defenders cover the tight end and slot. The fact that whites congregate at tight end and slot just confirms what anyone with a stopwatch already knows -- whites are not competitive with blacks at speed positions.
    , @Anonymous
    I had 13 1/2 sacks this year on a terrible team that almost never was playing with the lead. Of course, I'm technically a linebacker.
    , @ben tillman

    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that’s more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end?
     
    Justin Smith is in his 14th year, so he's not mediocre, but clearly you are overlooking some players. What about Chris Long? Is Shea McClellin mediocre enough? He was moved to LB this year. Margus Hunt? 10 tackles in 2 years?
    , @GW
    The 2014 All-Pro teams were just released...

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000452986/article/2014-allpro-teams

    Fully 15 of the 26 first and second team offensive players are white, with 8 of 29 (if you count Watt twice, he made 2nd team as defensive tackle as well) defensive first and second teamers are white.

    Assuming these are the 55 best players in football, then 41.8% of the best players are white (23/55) in a league which is 27.7% white overall. This would tend to confirm your theory. (If Watt is counted once, then 22/54 is 40.7%--still much higher than league average).

    However part of the reason why blacks make up a higher percentage than they might otherwise has to do with the positions black players tend to play vs. whites. Take a typical white position--kicker. On a 53 man active roster, normally a team will only carry one place kicker and one punter (who often doubles as the holder--another position whites are overrepresented at). A typical black position--say defensive back--may have ten active players (like the Dallas Cowboys' roster does) even though only four start. The attrition difference between typically white and black positions skews the numbers, meaning that although over 2/3 of NFLers are black, they don't contribute to 2/3 of the value of a typical NFL team.
    , @John Cunningham
    @Felix notes--
    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black “skill” positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white “deep threat” receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.

    This is the exact situation that existed with Blacks coming into MLB for the first years of integration. Only star blacks got signed--Jackie Robinson, Campanella, Don Newcombe, Larry Doby, etc. it was quite a while before mediocre blacks got to ride the bench.
  73. I wrote this whole long thing, then, naaah: the whole topic is SO embarrassing, so I deleted it. You are so wrong, Steve, on this one – it is truly cringe-worthy what you are implying here – at least, look up your facts on sport, next time. Facts are those pesky things that make people look like fools if they don’t know them. And, everyone here, I can tell, has never played sport on an elite team, a Varsity team in college, or fracking High School, or any team where the risk of being cut was always there. What a bunch of wusses.

  74. Tackle, center, QB, guard, tight end. Send your kid to Stanford – tremendous NFL success at those Wonderlic positions.

    @Steve

    John Arrillaga and many others make sure no Stanford athlete fails financially, even if they don’t play professionally. And not just the revenue generating sports.

  75. Neoconned [AKA "Dirk Owned lebron and wade"] says:

    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.

    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.

    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.

    I am not sure about Luke kuechley and if he was not recruited heavily, but he is the best inside linebacker in the nfl these days, too. Don’t forget Clay Matthews, either. Whites seem to be making a big jump in numbers on defense. And no one is even close as good as Gronk at tight end when he is healthy.

    It sort of reminds me of the non-story in the American Great Black Hope boxing media and how it is apparently not news that the best middleweight, light heavy, and heavyweight boxers are all former soviet bloc whites who physically and mentally intimidate black American opponents.

    • Replies: @leftist conservative

    Dirk Owned lebron and wade wrote:
    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.
    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.
    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.
     
    Agreed.
    Whites mature later than blacks--allows more brain growth, and probably other things we do not yet understand.
    , @The Last Real Calvinist
    I agree there's a lot to the late-bloomer thesis. Couple this with the WIN NOW!!! pressure put on coaches at all levels, right down into high and middle schools, and it's no wonder there's not too much patience available to wait around for players who are promising but develop slower than average. I guess all but the most persistent late bloomers (i.e. those willing to walk on at the college level) simply get left behind without anyone, including themselves, thinking too much about it.

    I recall there was a study done with hockey players that showed the closer to the beginning of the year a player was born, the more likely he was to be successful in youth leagues, which used a calendar-year-based system for setting up age groups. So at ages at which physical development is rapid, i.e. especially early puberty, this meant the 'older' kids in a given age group in general played better, were given more attention by coaches, got even farther ahead of their younger teammates, and so on.
    , @Truth

    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.
     
    Jordy Nelson is a rare talent, but he catches passes from unquestionably, the best football player in the world. He has been superb, but he has not even scratched breaking records.

    On the other hand, Calvin Johnson (who has been clocked a bit to much from reaching for errant passes, and is probably over the hill), Plays with a mediocore QB who can't win games when he is not around.

    Nelson MIGHT be an all star playing with Stafford, but if you put Johnson, in his prime with Aaron Rodgers, they would have to change the rules the same way the NCAA did to prevent Kareem Abdul Jabbar from dunking.
    , @ben tillman

    I am not sure about Luke Kuechly and if he was not recruited heavily
     
    Luke Kuechly (2009)

    Rivals: 3-star, No. 37 in Ohio, No. 44 outside linebacker
    Scout: 3-star, No. 23 strong side linebacker
    , @John Cunningham
    Luke Kuechley was a big high school star here in Cincinnati at Xavier HS, a Jesuit school which recruits metro-wide. he went to Boston College, a Jesuit Univ, and had decent success there, so I don't think yiou can count him as a late bloomer.
  76. @Unladen Swallow
    That quote might be an impressive smoking gun coming from someone other than Barry Switzer, the guy probably holds the title of worst head coach to ever win a Super Bowl. He basically got the job after Jerry Jones de facto fired Jimmy Johnson after he built a young dynasty and won two straight Super Bowls in the early 1990's, and Jones wanted an empty suit he could control, instead of the very intelligent and independent Johnson who he couldn't. Even with the superior talent Dallas possessed over Pittsburgh in the one SB Switzer "won" SB XXX, they were very nearly beat by the underachieving Neil O'Donnell at QB, until he threw two late inexplicable picks when the Cowboys were flailing late in the game.

    Barry Switzer never got another head coaching job in the NFL after Jones fired him after four seasons. Evidently things were so bad between Troy Aikman and Barry Switzer during the Super Bowl year that Aikman didn't speak to Switzer the entire second half of the season including the playoffs, that might be we he "forgot" about Aikman. The Cowboys literally had so much talent that even with a horrible pro coach like Switzer who his QB refused to talk too still won the SB, but that team's talent was Johnson's doing, not Jerry Jones the owner who fired him. I think Switzer won one playoff game the following season before being eliminated and then was fired the following year, since then with Jones the de facto GM of the Cowboys they have a single postseason victory in 16 seasons.

    I would nominate Mike Ditka as the worst coach to win Super Bowl trophy. With any decent coach, the 80’s Bears would have won 2-3 Super Bowls. Alas, with Ditka at the helm even with their legendary defense, they could only win one. I still remember 2 playoff games where Bears, playing at home, were completely outplayed and outcoached by Joe Gibb’s coached Washington Redskins.

  77. @Jefferson
    "The Giants training facility is right near MetLife stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. There’s plenty of reasonably priced housing within a 20 minute drive of it in NJ. No need to pay NYC taxes of rent and I doubt many players do. I also doubt most rookies have entourages. And players get fed most of their meals by the team when they are training."

    You doubt that most Black rookies have entourages and are living way beyond their means ? Than why do a whopping 70 percent of NFL players go broke after retiring ?

    I doubt most black NFL rookies have entourages. Those probably come later.

  78. @Camlost
    Black quarterbacks tend to have a spectacular season (or two at most) and then flame out in epic fashion before finishing their careers in wildly inconsistent fashion as turnover producing machines (Michael Vick is exhibit A for this phenomenon).

    And even when black quarterbacks go on winning streaks they still don't really throw many actual touchdown passes. AFAIK, only Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham and Dante Culpepper are black NFL quarterbacks who have thrown for 30+ TD passes in a year, and none of those guys did it more than twice. In contrast, both Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo already have 4 seasons of 30+ TD passes, Tom Brady has 5 and Drew Brees has done accomplished that for 7 straight years.

    Michael Vick's high in TD passes for a season is a paltry 21. Neither Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick nor Robert Griffin 3 have even thrown for 25 TD passes in a season yet, either.

    And doesn’t your summary, even for Brady, highlight how awesome Randy Moss was? He brought Cunningham and Brady to the next level and was the only thing separating Culpepper from total mediocrity (at best).

  79. @Neoconned
    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.

    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.

    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.

    I am not sure about Luke kuechley and if he was not recruited heavily, but he is the best inside linebacker in the nfl these days, too. Don't forget Clay Matthews, either. Whites seem to be making a big jump in numbers on defense. And no one is even close as good as Gronk at tight end when he is healthy.

    It sort of reminds me of the non-story in the American Great Black Hope boxing media and how it is apparently not news that the best middleweight, light heavy, and heavyweight boxers are all former soviet bloc whites who physically and mentally intimidate black American opponents.

    Dirk Owned lebron and wade wrote:
    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.
    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.
    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.

    Agreed.
    Whites mature later than blacks–allows more brain growth, and probably other things we do not yet understand.

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    Dirk owned... Nelson is not in the class of Dez Bryant or Megatron. He would probably agree with that. That is not meant as a slight on him, just a recognition that Dez and Calvin are unreal talents.

    Lefty... Don't see how the brain growth is a necessary for the DE or WR position when with guys like Dez and Calvin the ball just needs to be thrown in a certain area and they can go up and get it. DE needs to get off the snap quickly, maybe use one "move", and chase a slower guy who is also trying to process many other things at that same time.
  80. @Steve Sailer
    I always thought it would be a good idea in college recruiting if the billionaire booster (e.g., T. Boone Pickens for Oklahoma State or John Arrillaugua (sp?) for Stanford) personally guaranteed to a high school recruit's mom that if her son made the NFL he would ensure he would always have access to honest, competent accounting and financial management services.

    John Arrillaga, (the name is Basque BTW) whose daughter married Marc Andreesen.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    There ought to be a way for guys of that caliber to promise the mothers of athletes that they won't let their sons' bonuses be embezzled.

  81. @CJ
    John Arrillaga, (the name is Basque BTW) whose daughter married Marc Andreesen.

    Thanks.

    There ought to be a way for guys of that caliber to promise the mothers of athletes that they won’t let their sons’ bonuses be embezzled.

  82. @Felix
    Not only are the best ten to fifteen QBs in the game white, so too are a majority of the best TEs (Gronk, Witten, Miller, Ertz) and slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, Beasley). The fastest receiver, and maybe one of the fastest players in the league is a white guy from Kansas (Jordy Nelson, Green Bay).


    But the best player in the game, and should-be winner of this year’s MVP award is JJ Watt, who plays a position normally dominated by black guys (defensive end), and dominates it.



    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black "skill" positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white "deep threat" receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.


    If whites are so unsuited to playing wide receiver, you'd expect the only white guys good enough to make it as a pro to linger in the fringes, barely hacking it in the league. Yet the opposite is true: there are no mediocre white wide receivers, only stars. This certainly seems to imply that there is discrimination against whites at the wide receiver position: in order to make it as far as the NFL, a white dude doesn't have to merely be as good as the average black dude who made it that far: he has to be far superior.



    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that's more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end? Between getting a scholarship at a top college program and getting invited to the NFL combine, he never even sniffed getting a chance to play in the NFL, whereas many black athletes of similar talent are playing as we speak.

    You notice the same phenomenon among elite college football teams, Joey Bosa is the only white defensive starter on Ohio State’s football team, and despite being a true sophomore, he is clearly the best defensive player on the team as well, if blacks truly had an overwhelming advantage on average, you wouldn’t see white players playing at an elite level at all in these sports. However what you do see is bench-warmers and superstars only, which implies the great middle of white players are being ignored at the top tier collegiate level.

    The superstars like Watt and Bosa can’t get ignored because they are too talented physically, but the guys who are often late bloomers are probably ending up at non-BCS schools, where they would be lucky to be drafted no matter how well they play, but if they stay at Big State U even if they get eventually noticed they won’t have enough playing time to warrant a high pick in the draft either.This bias of course ripples through the pro football draft, because the high picks are taken overwhelmingly in the first couple rounds from these programs. If a good white player who is a late bloomer spends a lot of time on the bench, not many teams are going to take him high, notwithstanding a few exceptions like Clay Matthews Jr.’s son Clay Matthews III, who didn’t start at USC until his senior year but managed to vault up to a late first rounder largely on the strength of that year and an outstanding combine ( Although being the son of a great player and the nephew of a Hall of Famer probably helped too. ) This implies like Steve did a long time ago in a post on the NFL and white players that there is an untapped talent pool out there for hard working college coach to exploit, curious if any will do that.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The coach who figured that out just signed a $40 million contract.
  83. @Unladen Swallow
    You notice the same phenomenon among elite college football teams, Joey Bosa is the only white defensive starter on Ohio State's football team, and despite being a true sophomore, he is clearly the best defensive player on the team as well, if blacks truly had an overwhelming advantage on average, you wouldn't see white players playing at an elite level at all in these sports. However what you do see is bench-warmers and superstars only, which implies the great middle of white players are being ignored at the top tier collegiate level.

    The superstars like Watt and Bosa can't get ignored because they are too talented physically, but the guys who are often late bloomers are probably ending up at non-BCS schools, where they would be lucky to be drafted no matter how well they play, but if they stay at Big State U even if they get eventually noticed they won't have enough playing time to warrant a high pick in the draft either.This bias of course ripples through the pro football draft, because the high picks are taken overwhelmingly in the first couple rounds from these programs. If a good white player who is a late bloomer spends a lot of time on the bench, not many teams are going to take him high, notwithstanding a few exceptions like Clay Matthews Jr.'s son Clay Matthews III, who didn't start at USC until his senior year but managed to vault up to a late first rounder largely on the strength of that year and an outstanding combine ( Although being the son of a great player and the nephew of a Hall of Famer probably helped too. ) This implies like Steve did a long time ago in a post on the NFL and white players that there is an untapped talent pool out there for hard working college coach to exploit, curious if any will do that.

    The coach who figured that out just signed a $40 million contract.

  84. @Camlost

    Let’s say you are a late round pick and make an NFL team. You make what, say 400-450k? That isn’t really a lot of money. Might go a long way in Green Bay, but not in DC, San Francisco, or New York.
     
    Huh?

    That kind of salary is in the top .0000001 % of the top 1% in the USA. We're talking about 21 year old kids here, not Goldman Sachs analysts in their 10th year with the firm.

    You’re 7 orders of magnitude off. 400k is almost exactly the cut off for 1%er income (394k in 2013).

    Do you actually not know anyone who makes 400k a year? The guy who inherited his fathers plumbing company? Successful insurance guy? nobody?

  85. @Sunbeam
    You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let's make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven't thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don't.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn't married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more... expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren't smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I've written.

    Otherwise, just shut up.

    You are trying to make two different arguments simultaneously. Your original point was that middle class kids wouldn’t bother with football because “400k isn’t a lot of money”. That is a silly argument. A kid from a white middle class family will probably do very well on that income, because he will have learned some basic skills for saving and spending wisely. He will also know how to leverage his football career into a long term post football career whether in coaching, sports management or business. In fact most white offensive linemen do just fine after their careers are over. Your hypothetical rookie burning up his $450K is exactly the sort of inner city kid for whom $450K is a huge amount of money, and also not likely to be working for Goldman Sachs unless it is a janitorial position.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The NFL exploits a lot of its nonstars.

    Major League Baseball is worse to minor leaguers (a guy I knew was amazed at how much worse playing in the minors was than playing for Stanford), but it's pretty awesome if you make the big leagues, even if you are not very good by MLB standards. The NFL, in contrast, is pretty bad for fringe NFL players, but it doesn't have the huge fringe of minor league players.

    On the other hand, being a minor league baseball player doesn't beat you up physically too much. For example, I knew a couple of guys who looked like they were headed for the MLB as flamethrowing closers, but they each blew out their arms in Double A ball by the time they were 25. That's sad, but one wound up an MBA, the other an MD. My quasi-cousin could still throw a football about 60 yards, but he'd complain that he used to be able to throw it 70.
    , @Sunbeam
    Peter,

    I'll stand by what I wrote.

    Look at the possible financial repercussion in future years (things like the concussion problem, good old knees). The expenses you have as an NFL player.

    I do want to say something. In an earlier post I claimed that most NFL players never had careers long enough to qualify for a pension.

    However I have done a little reading on this in the past day. The player's union says the average career is 3.3 years. The NFL says it is 6 years. I've seen other articles that claim 4.5 years.

    Something is screwy when something so easily determined is ambigous.

    But it only takes 3 years to qualify for an NFL pension, I thought it was 4, but this was changed in 1992.

    So theoretically most players qualify for a pension. I guess. Maybe.

    But I still believe it is not really a great job, at least compared to some others. I mean it doesn't appeal to me at all.

    Aside from concussions, it is pretty easy to find accounts of ex-players who are physically broken down even in their 30's.

    Of course I think differently about this than most players actually do. For one thing I would give the middle finger to Alabama, and I would contact the coaching staff at Stanford and say "Take me. Please, please take me. Tell you what, I'll walk on and pay my own way with loans or whatever. Just get me in, please. A preferred walk on or something, I'll take anything just get me into Stanford. I have marginal grades and scores for a Stanford admit (well this football thing has been sucking up my trombone playing and soup kitchen time), but if you can do anything I am yours. You don't even have to commit to a scholarship. Just a chance and that admission."

    Of course there are other excellent schools whose diploma has marketable value and cachet like Michigan. But Alabama, Oklahoma, those schools would not even be considered by me.
  86. Russell Wilson’s Wonderlic may only be respectable, but he is smart enough to have gotten divorced this year *before* he gets the big payday.

    That’s like doubling his salary right there! Compare to chumps like say … Jordan or Kobe.

    • Replies: @shk12344
    Russell Wilson divorced his wife because he caught her having an affair with his best friend Golden Tate. Golden Tate was then traded to Detroit Lions and Russell divorced his wife. She should have waited until Wilson signed the mega-contract to have an affair. Now she just gets only part of $500,00 a year salary. She could have been set for life if she waited a year.

    http://www.ibtimes.com/russell-wilson-rumors-wife-allegedly-cheated-qb-seahawks-teammate-golden-tate-says-gossip-1581462
  87. @Peter Akuleyev
    You are trying to make two different arguments simultaneously. Your original point was that middle class kids wouldn't bother with football because "400k isn't a lot of money". That is a silly argument. A kid from a white middle class family will probably do very well on that income, because he will have learned some basic skills for saving and spending wisely. He will also know how to leverage his football career into a long term post football career whether in coaching, sports management or business. In fact most white offensive linemen do just fine after their careers are over. Your hypothetical rookie burning up his $450K is exactly the sort of inner city kid for whom $450K is a huge amount of money, and also not likely to be working for Goldman Sachs unless it is a janitorial position.

    The NFL exploits a lot of its nonstars.

    Major League Baseball is worse to minor leaguers (a guy I knew was amazed at how much worse playing in the minors was than playing for Stanford), but it’s pretty awesome if you make the big leagues, even if you are not very good by MLB standards. The NFL, in contrast, is pretty bad for fringe NFL players, but it doesn’t have the huge fringe of minor league players.

    On the other hand, being a minor league baseball player doesn’t beat you up physically too much. For example, I knew a couple of guys who looked like they were headed for the MLB as flamethrowing closers, but they each blew out their arms in Double A ball by the time they were 25. That’s sad, but one wound up an MBA, the other an MD. My quasi-cousin could still throw a football about 60 yards, but he’d complain that he used to be able to throw it 70.

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    "Everything about the minor leagues is very minor."--Jim Bouton
    , @Peter Akuleyev

    The NFL, in contrast, is pretty bad for fringe NFL players,
     
    Exploitative sure, but it is still generally a good deal for the players. The stupider or more disadvantaged players generally have no access to alternative (legal) professions that would ever allow them to enjoy the status and social benefits of being an NFL player, even if it is short lived. Seems to me the more intelligent fringe players are still able to use the NFL brand later in life to promote themselves in their business or coaching careers. Who do you think has a better advantage in the business world, all else being equal? Joe Czerniak, former varsity wrestler from Ohio State or Joe Czerniak, former football player from Ohio State who played two years as a backup right guard for the Carolina Panthers?
    , @Brutusale
    Steve, I just finished John Feinstein's latest book, Where Nobody Knows Your Name, about life in Triple-A ball. It shocking how little these guys make, some as little $2,150 per month for a 6-month season, up to a maximum of $95K for a 7-year veteran. The competition is fierce for a MLB call-up because they get the major league minimum of $505K prorated for every second they're in the majors.
  88. @Neoconned
    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.

    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.

    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.

    I am not sure about Luke kuechley and if he was not recruited heavily, but he is the best inside linebacker in the nfl these days, too. Don't forget Clay Matthews, either. Whites seem to be making a big jump in numbers on defense. And no one is even close as good as Gronk at tight end when he is healthy.

    It sort of reminds me of the non-story in the American Great Black Hope boxing media and how it is apparently not news that the best middleweight, light heavy, and heavyweight boxers are all former soviet bloc whites who physically and mentally intimidate black American opponents.

    I agree there’s a lot to the late-bloomer thesis. Couple this with the WIN NOW!!! pressure put on coaches at all levels, right down into high and middle schools, and it’s no wonder there’s not too much patience available to wait around for players who are promising but develop slower than average. I guess all but the most persistent late bloomers (i.e. those willing to walk on at the college level) simply get left behind without anyone, including themselves, thinking too much about it.

    I recall there was a study done with hockey players that showed the closer to the beginning of the year a player was born, the more likely he was to be successful in youth leagues, which used a calendar-year-based system for setting up age groups. So at ages at which physical development is rapid, i.e. especially early puberty, this meant the ‘older’ kids in a given age group in general played better, were given more attention by coaches, got even farther ahead of their younger teammates, and so on.

  89. @Sunbeam
    You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let's make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven't thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don't.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn't married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more... expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren't smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I've written.

    Otherwise, just shut up.

    Not a sports fan, huh? Not aware of all the boilerplate perks, dictated by the collective bargaining agreements, loaded into the average pro sports contract?

    NFL rookies get a per diem of $925 from the first day of training camp until the week of the first game (veterans get $1,700). As has been pointed out, they also receive lavish meals in the locker room/clubhouse, and also receive “meal money” for meals that the team doesn’t supply ($110/day in the NFL, $106 in MLB). NFL players get paid travel, food and lodging just for participating in off-season training programs. The get paid for participating in the rookie orientation program. They get moving and travel reimbursements when they’re traded. They get paid for making weight. They get paid for a whole host of things that you would imagine were a matter of course to normal people but, NFL players being overgrown children, these things are incentivized.

    http://www.thefootballeducator.com/nfl-salary-cap-more-counting-on-player-benefits/

  90. @Jefferson
    "The Giants training facility is right near MetLife stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. There’s plenty of reasonably priced housing within a 20 minute drive of it in NJ. No need to pay NYC taxes of rent and I doubt many players do. I also doubt most rookies have entourages. And players get fed most of their meals by the team when they are training."

    You doubt that most Black rookies have entourages and are living way beyond their means ? Than why do a whopping 70 percent of NFL players go broke after retiring ?

    Because by and large they’re not very bright, and when they’ve been cut loose from the system that takes care of every particular for them, they’re bereft.

    Former NFL player Tim Green talked about this in his book, The Dark Side of the Game. The first thing many high draft picks do after signing the big contract is buy an expensive ride. Green talks about how too many players drive the Escalade for a while, then flip it for something like a Mercedes, which they drive for a while and then flip it for a Ferrari. How much money do they lose every time the flip a high-end car?

  91. @Steve Sailer
    The NFL exploits a lot of its nonstars.

    Major League Baseball is worse to minor leaguers (a guy I knew was amazed at how much worse playing in the minors was than playing for Stanford), but it's pretty awesome if you make the big leagues, even if you are not very good by MLB standards. The NFL, in contrast, is pretty bad for fringe NFL players, but it doesn't have the huge fringe of minor league players.

    On the other hand, being a minor league baseball player doesn't beat you up physically too much. For example, I knew a couple of guys who looked like they were headed for the MLB as flamethrowing closers, but they each blew out their arms in Double A ball by the time they were 25. That's sad, but one wound up an MBA, the other an MD. My quasi-cousin could still throw a football about 60 yards, but he'd complain that he used to be able to throw it 70.

    “Everything about the minor leagues is very minor.”–Jim Bouton

  92. @Dave Pinsen
    Others in this thread say longer arms and bigger hands, but you could still select for them among shorter linemen. Hands aren't always proportional - the standout Giants WR Odell Beckham is 5'11" but has 10" hands.

    Otto Graham, coach of the College All-Star Team in 1965 said that Bob Hayes was “a 9.1 sprinter with 12.5 hands.”

  93. Africans keep crying about lack of black playmakers in soccer, supposedly there is a plot to turn all talented african midfielders into Defensive Mids.

  94. @Jefferson
    "You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let’s make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven’t thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don’t.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn’t married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more… expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren’t smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I’ve written.

    Otherwise, just shut up"

    Don't forget that most Black rappers and most Black NBA/NFL players have an entourage. And an entourage is extremely expensive, especially if they are making only only $450,000 a year.

    $450,000 a year is a lot of money in Manhattan and Beverly Hills if you live like a cheap Jew for example, but we know the spending habits of Blacks is the extreme opposite of that of the stereotypical Jew.

    If you want to live the bling bling lifestyle of Birdman and Lil Wayne of overpaying for everything instead of looking for a good bargain like the Jews, than $450,000 a year ain't shit in New York City and Los Angeles.

    If you want to live the bling bling lifestyle of Birdman and Lil Wayne of overpaying for everything instead of looking for a good bargain like the Jews, than $450,000 a year ain’t shit in New York City and Los Angeles.

    I agree $450K isn’t much for all the reasons you and others have mentioned, but last time I checked LA doesn’t have a football team and I just watched the Wolf of Wall Street so the notion that all Jews are, er, frugal isn’t working for me right now.

  95. @Steve Sailer
    The NFL exploits a lot of its nonstars.

    Major League Baseball is worse to minor leaguers (a guy I knew was amazed at how much worse playing in the minors was than playing for Stanford), but it's pretty awesome if you make the big leagues, even if you are not very good by MLB standards. The NFL, in contrast, is pretty bad for fringe NFL players, but it doesn't have the huge fringe of minor league players.

    On the other hand, being a minor league baseball player doesn't beat you up physically too much. For example, I knew a couple of guys who looked like they were headed for the MLB as flamethrowing closers, but they each blew out their arms in Double A ball by the time they were 25. That's sad, but one wound up an MBA, the other an MD. My quasi-cousin could still throw a football about 60 yards, but he'd complain that he used to be able to throw it 70.

    The NFL, in contrast, is pretty bad for fringe NFL players,

    Exploitative sure, but it is still generally a good deal for the players. The stupider or more disadvantaged players generally have no access to alternative (legal) professions that would ever allow them to enjoy the status and social benefits of being an NFL player, even if it is short lived. Seems to me the more intelligent fringe players are still able to use the NFL brand later in life to promote themselves in their business or coaching careers. Who do you think has a better advantage in the business world, all else being equal? Joe Czerniak, former varsity wrestler from Ohio State or Joe Czerniak, former football player from Ohio State who played two years as a backup right guard for the Carolina Panthers?

    • Replies: @None
    funny you bring up college wrestlers. They are actually renowned for their network in both the corporate world and on Wall Street.

    Easy to make a bet on guys who have had the discipline to stick at the sport through college.
  96. @Felix
    Not only are the best ten to fifteen QBs in the game white, so too are a majority of the best TEs (Gronk, Witten, Miller, Ertz) and slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, Beasley). The fastest receiver, and maybe one of the fastest players in the league is a white guy from Kansas (Jordy Nelson, Green Bay).


    But the best player in the game, and should-be winner of this year’s MVP award is JJ Watt, who plays a position normally dominated by black guys (defensive end), and dominates it.



    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black "skill" positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white "deep threat" receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.


    If whites are so unsuited to playing wide receiver, you'd expect the only white guys good enough to make it as a pro to linger in the fringes, barely hacking it in the league. Yet the opposite is true: there are no mediocre white wide receivers, only stars. This certainly seems to imply that there is discrimination against whites at the wide receiver position: in order to make it as far as the NFL, a white dude doesn't have to merely be as good as the average black dude who made it that far: he has to be far superior.



    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that's more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end? Between getting a scholarship at a top college program and getting invited to the NFL combine, he never even sniffed getting a chance to play in the NFL, whereas many black athletes of similar talent are playing as we speak.

    At least as far as receivers, this claim (that only star white players can make it in the NFL) is nonsense. Look at the data for receving yards. Twenty-three receivers had more than 1,000 yards receiving. Three were white — Jordy Nelson, Gronkowski, and Greg Olsen. One WR and two tight ends. Basically there is one elite white WR in pro football. I can think of several mediocre ones (Danny Amendola, Brian Hartline, Riley Cooper….). The whole point of tight end (and slot receiver, where whites also excel) is mismatches — the best pass defenders cover the wideouts, and lesser defenders cover the tight end and slot. The fact that whites congregate at tight end and slot just confirms what anyone with a stopwatch already knows — whites are not competitive with blacks at speed positions.

  97. @Bugg
    Ol guys tend to either be white or very intelligent regardless of race. You have to concentrate to understand snap counts, blacking schemes, memorize plays and assignments, work out like crazy, et al. There are exceptions like Michael Oher of "The Blind Side" fame. Even black guys who play OL tend to come from privileged backgrounds. Jonathan Ogden, who figures to get into the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible, is the son of an attorney, as is Jonathan Martin. You do have yahoo knuckle headed white guys like Richie Incognito or Kyle Turley, but they are increasingly the exception. In the 1970s the San Diego Chargers did a study of the kinds of personalities that are found at the various positions. It corresponds closely to this wonderlic data.

    You do have yahoo knuckle headed white guys like Richie Incognito or Kyle Turley, but they are increasingly the exception.

    Incognito is unquestionably a knucklehead but his Wonderlic score was 32 (!).

    • Replies: @Marty T
    Wonderlic scores are suspect. The idea that Colin kaepernick has a 130+ IQ is ridiculous. I'm not too sure about Eli Manning's 130+, either.
  98. @rivelino
    steve,
    have you looked at the wonderlic scores by position?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderlic_test

    "the average score of a NFL player according to position is the following:

    Offensive tackle – 26
    Center – 25
    Quarterback – 24
    Guard – 23
    Tight end – 22
    Safety – 19
    Linebacker – 19
    Cornerback – 18
    Wide receiver – 17
    Fullback – 17
    Halfback – 16"

    i think we could do a pretty nice white to black gradient with this data.

    Two interesting points — one, that data is from the 80s. Would be nice to see updated data. Two, a civil rights lawyer recently “persuaded” the NFL recently to give another test in addition to the Wonderlic — one with less disparate impact, presumably. Might be an interesting topic for Steve, since the same test apparently is being touted for firefighters.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2013/02/17/nfl-combine-aptitude-test/1926409/

  99. @Peter Akuleyev
    You are trying to make two different arguments simultaneously. Your original point was that middle class kids wouldn't bother with football because "400k isn't a lot of money". That is a silly argument. A kid from a white middle class family will probably do very well on that income, because he will have learned some basic skills for saving and spending wisely. He will also know how to leverage his football career into a long term post football career whether in coaching, sports management or business. In fact most white offensive linemen do just fine after their careers are over. Your hypothetical rookie burning up his $450K is exactly the sort of inner city kid for whom $450K is a huge amount of money, and also not likely to be working for Goldman Sachs unless it is a janitorial position.

    Peter,

    I’ll stand by what I wrote.

    Look at the possible financial repercussion in future years (things like the concussion problem, good old knees). The expenses you have as an NFL player.

    I do want to say something. In an earlier post I claimed that most NFL players never had careers long enough to qualify for a pension.

    However I have done a little reading on this in the past day. The player’s union says the average career is 3.3 years. The NFL says it is 6 years. I’ve seen other articles that claim 4.5 years.

    Something is screwy when something so easily determined is ambigous.

    But it only takes 3 years to qualify for an NFL pension, I thought it was 4, but this was changed in 1992.

    So theoretically most players qualify for a pension. I guess. Maybe.

    But I still believe it is not really a great job, at least compared to some others. I mean it doesn’t appeal to me at all.

    Aside from concussions, it is pretty easy to find accounts of ex-players who are physically broken down even in their 30’s.

    Of course I think differently about this than most players actually do. For one thing I would give the middle finger to Alabama, and I would contact the coaching staff at Stanford and say “Take me. Please, please take me. Tell you what, I’ll walk on and pay my own way with loans or whatever. Just get me in, please. A preferred walk on or something, I’ll take anything just get me into Stanford. I have marginal grades and scores for a Stanford admit (well this football thing has been sucking up my trombone playing and soup kitchen time), but if you can do anything I am yours. You don’t even have to commit to a scholarship. Just a chance and that admission.”

    Of course there are other excellent schools whose diploma has marketable value and cachet like Michigan. But Alabama, Oklahoma, those schools would not even be considered by me.

  100. @Bugg
    Ol guys tend to either be white or very intelligent regardless of race. You have to concentrate to understand snap counts, blacking schemes, memorize plays and assignments, work out like crazy, et al. There are exceptions like Michael Oher of "The Blind Side" fame. Even black guys who play OL tend to come from privileged backgrounds. Jonathan Ogden, who figures to get into the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible, is the son of an attorney, as is Jonathan Martin. You do have yahoo knuckle headed white guys like Richie Incognito or Kyle Turley, but they are increasingly the exception. In the 1970s the San Diego Chargers did a study of the kinds of personalities that are found at the various positions. It corresponds closely to this wonderlic data.

    The HOF beat you to it, Ogden was enshrined in 2013. Surprised Steve didn’t notice your slighting of a UCLA great.

  101. @Anonymous
    Forty years ago it didn’t seem implausible that a white kid of that size and strength could wind up playing, say, defense in the NFL.

    The fact that colleges are used as a stepping stone to the NFL, and the subsequent fact that the academic standards for whites and blacks in college football are dramatically different, are what skews the NFL so much towards black players. The same thing can be seen happening in the NBA, which also employs colleges as feeder teams. Baseball, which employs a completely different junior league system, is not dominated by black players. But if it used colleges as feeder teams then it too would be almost entirely black.

    If you're a big, strong, fast, dumb, white guy, you don't get into college and you never get the chance to progress to the NFL. If you're a big, strong, fast, dumb black guy then colleges will compete to sign you and and will make up fake courses to keep up the fig leaf of your being a "student-athlete".

    If the standards are different it’s because they have to be, because blacks and whites have different academic profiles. But I don’t think it’s accurate that there’s a significant number of really dumb athletic whites that can play college sports. And if there were, they’d definitely get in somewhere, because coaches want to win. There probably aren’t that many great white athletes with IQ well under 100.

  102. @leftist conservative

    Dirk Owned lebron and wade wrote:
    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.
    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.
    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.
     
    Agreed.
    Whites mature later than blacks--allows more brain growth, and probably other things we do not yet understand.

    Dirk owned… Nelson is not in the class of Dez Bryant or Megatron. He would probably agree with that. That is not meant as a slight on him, just a recognition that Dez and Calvin are unreal talents.

    Lefty… Don’t see how the brain growth is a necessary for the DE or WR position when with guys like Dez and Calvin the ball just needs to be thrown in a certain area and they can go up and get it. DE needs to get off the snap quickly, maybe use one “move”, and chase a slower guy who is also trying to process many other things at that same time.

  103. White parents retreating from football will probably continue with the concussion risks. The fastest growing sports for whites, especially in the northeast, seem to be lacrosse and hockey. There’s also injury risk, but very little black competition.

  104. @Felix
    Not only are the best ten to fifteen QBs in the game white, so too are a majority of the best TEs (Gronk, Witten, Miller, Ertz) and slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, Beasley). The fastest receiver, and maybe one of the fastest players in the league is a white guy from Kansas (Jordy Nelson, Green Bay).


    But the best player in the game, and should-be winner of this year’s MVP award is JJ Watt, who plays a position normally dominated by black guys (defensive end), and dominates it.



    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black "skill" positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white "deep threat" receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.


    If whites are so unsuited to playing wide receiver, you'd expect the only white guys good enough to make it as a pro to linger in the fringes, barely hacking it in the league. Yet the opposite is true: there are no mediocre white wide receivers, only stars. This certainly seems to imply that there is discrimination against whites at the wide receiver position: in order to make it as far as the NFL, a white dude doesn't have to merely be as good as the average black dude who made it that far: he has to be far superior.



    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that's more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end? Between getting a scholarship at a top college program and getting invited to the NFL combine, he never even sniffed getting a chance to play in the NFL, whereas many black athletes of similar talent are playing as we speak.

    I had 13 1/2 sacks this year on a terrible team that almost never was playing with the lead. Of course, I’m technically a linebacker.

  105. @SPMoore8
    I don't have the stats in front of me but I remember reading that the NBA is about 85% African American and the NFL over 75%. (Black folks are about 13% of the total population, that has been the same for a long while.) At the same time, I think MLB was about 20% black but is now only 8%. I don't know what to make of it.

    One thing that is looming here is the risk of CTE or other permanent injury. Football, unless it's for QB, will become an option of last resort for kids who want a college education and/or to make money for a sizable but relatively poor family back home.

    Incidentally, there is a Football IQ of sorts, the Wonderlic test, which gives scores from 0-50. Supposedly, if you double the Wonderlic score and add 60, you get an equivalent to more traditional IQ scores. It seems fair to say that scoring in single digits on your Wonderlic is a pretty good predictor of failure in the NFL, for most positions including QB. However, Frank Gore, with a score of 5, has had a very nice career. On the other hand, both Terry Bradshaw (16) and Dan Marino (15) scored low, and had nice careers, while Colin Kaepernick, whose 37 Wonderlic would put him in the 1% IQ range certainly doesn't play like it.

    http://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/The-Lowest-Wonderlic-Scores-In-NFL-History-10-206-2066

    http://www.therichest.com/sports/football-sports/10-worst-wonderlic-scores-in-nfl-history/

    I don’t have the stats in front of me but I remember reading that the NBA is about 85% African American

    Careful with your PC jargon. “Black” and “African-American” are not the same thing. There are several dozen foreign Black players in the NBA.

    The NBA is 20% White.

  106. @Chang
    Just look how tall MLB pitchers are now. Tons of 6'3 - 6'5 white guys pitching in MLB, making millions.
    There's also an increasing # of 6'2, 6'3+ guys in the NHL.

    In football, the QB and TE still skew white.

    Seems pretty clear that elite hand-eye coordination skews white. Asians also have elite fine motor control, but generally lack the size. Which is why baseball is the only major pro sport in America where asians regularly perform at an elite, all-star level.

    Just look how tall MLB pitchers are now. Tons of 6’3 – 6’5 white guys pitching in MLB, making millions.

    There’s a huge amount of prejudice against shorter players at every position in baseball.

  107. @Eric
    What about the increase of quality white wide receivers in the NFL over the last decade or so?

    By the mid-to-late eighties, it seemed as though WR was on its way to becoming an exclusively back position (along with tailback and cornerback).

    The entire decade of the 90s produced only three WRs that even die hard football fans would recognize by name -Wayne Chrebet, Ed McCaffrey, and Ricky Proehl.

    There are more good WRs who are white guys in the NFL right now- Jordy Nelson (91 catches, 1,519 yards, 13 touchdowns) Wes Welker (5 seasons with 100+ catches and 1000+ yards), Eric Decker (74, 962, 5), Julian Edelman (92, 972, 4), and Riley Cooper (55, 577,3)
    Add receiving tight ends to the mix and you also have Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olson, Jason Witten, and Travis Kelce.

    While certainly not an even split, it's a curious trend nonetheless.
    Did white guys get faster?
    Did rule changes protecting receivers over the middle of the field benefit big white guys who are only a step slower than their black competitors?
    Did NFL scouts lessen their bias against white players competing at positions where conventional wisdom says you need black guys if you expect to win?

    While certainly not an even split, it’s a curious trend nonetheless.
    Did white guys get faster?

    Part of it may be that there are simply more wide receivers total (more 3- and 4-WR sets) and more passes/receptions to be split among the receivers.

  108. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:

    OT, but some news sites seem to have non-PC views about the Rotherham Rape Scandal:

    http://10news.dk/ferry-catastrophe-muslims-beat-women-and-children-to-save-themselves/

    Look at the side column …

  109. @Camlost

    Let’s say you are a late round pick and make an NFL team. You make what, say 400-450k? That isn’t really a lot of money. Might go a long way in Green Bay, but not in DC, San Francisco, or New York.
     
    Huh?

    That kind of salary is in the top .0000001 % of the top 1% in the USA. We're talking about 21 year old kids here, not Goldman Sachs analysts in their 10th year with the firm.

    Huh?

    That kind of salary is in the top .0000001 % of the top 1% in the USA.

    One in a hundred billion Americans earns 400-450k per year? And you’re making fun of his numbers?

  110. @Jefferson
    If any professional sport in the U.S was predominantly Jewish, it would be the sport with the least amount of players who go broke after retiring.

    On average nobody is better than the Jews when it comes to delaying instant gratification in regards to money. Jews with poor impulse control regarding their own personal money is about as common as Blacks who have light eyes, meaning not very common.

    Jews with poor impulse control regarding their own personal money is about as common as Blacks who have light eyes, meaning not very common.

    I must remind you that 50% of Jews are female.

  111. @Chang
    Just look how tall MLB pitchers are now. Tons of 6'3 - 6'5 white guys pitching in MLB, making millions.
    There's also an increasing # of 6'2, 6'3+ guys in the NHL.

    In football, the QB and TE still skew white.

    Seems pretty clear that elite hand-eye coordination skews white. Asians also have elite fine motor control, but generally lack the size. Which is why baseball is the only major pro sport in America where asians regularly perform at an elite, all-star level.

    Shouldn’t there be an Asian Rory McElroy coming out of California soon?

  112. That quote might be an impressive smoking gun coming from someone other than Barry Switzer, the guy probably holds the title of worst head coach to ever win a Super Bowl. ….

    The Cowboys literally had so much talent that even with a horrible pro coach like Switzer who his QB refused to talk too still won the SB….

    Thus, Jerry proved his point that any of 500 coaches could win a Super Bowl with that team.

    … but that team’s talent was Johnson’s doing, not Jerry Jones the owner who fired him.

    That’s what they say. Was there ever a player more overrated than Herschel Walker?

    Scott Woerner made the big plays that beat Clemson and Notre Dame and Belue/Scott made the “property damage” play that beat Florida in Georgia’s championship season, and Herschel’s numbers aren’t any better than those of Worley/Hampton in the late 1980’s. Herschel was just a physical specimen who was durable and able to carry the ball 30+ times a game.

    • Replies: @D/Jones

    Was there ever a player more overrated than Herschel Walker?
     
    Archie Griffin?
  113. @Camlost

    Barry Switzer, former NFL and college coach, recently said he’d never have a white quarterback on his team (he forgot about Troy Aikman).
     
    Pretty sure he only said that because he moved Oklahoma back to the Wishbone offense after Aikman got hurt, and then stuck with it because it worked under Jamielle Holloway. Switzer had nothing but white quarterbacks in the NFL.

    Oklahoma played Stanford in ’81 or ’82. Switzer said John Elway was the best college QB he’d ever seen.

  114. @rivelino
    steve,
    have you looked at the wonderlic scores by position?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderlic_test

    "the average score of a NFL player according to position is the following:

    Offensive tackle – 26
    Center – 25
    Quarterback – 24
    Guard – 23
    Tight end – 22
    Safety – 19
    Linebacker – 19
    Cornerback – 18
    Wide receiver – 17
    Fullback – 17
    Halfback – 16"

    i think we could do a pretty nice white to black gradient with this data.

    Where do the defensive linemen rank? Defensive tackles and ends don’t seem to be on that list.

  115. @Steve Sailer
    "Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like."

    Howard Twilley in 1965 in a ten game season for U. of Tulsa caught 134 passes for 1779 yards, which were just sci-fi statistics in college back then. I saw him in the Senior Bowl after that season and he was amazing at catching the ball in traffic. He was small, slow, and white, so he was only drafted in 12th round by the Miami Dolphins. He wound up playing 11 years for Miami, catching a touchdown pass in a Super Bowl win. An electrical engineering major, he earned an MBA in the off season, and got rich owning a chain of shoe stores.

    How can you remember Howard Twilley? You were 7 years old.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I watched the Senior Bowl in January 1966 when I was 7. Twilley made about 12 catches and was MVP. It was one of the first football games I'd watched as a fan semi-conscious of what was going on in football and it made an impression on me. Similarly, the first football game I can recall listening to on the radio was the 1965 USC-UCLA game that Gary Beban won on a couple of long bombs in the fourth quarter.
  116. @Sunbeam
    You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let's make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven't thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don't.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn't married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more... expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren't smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I've written.

    Otherwise, just shut up.

    Yeah, and how many people make $450,000 4 months out of their junior year in college?

  117. @Dave Pinsen
    I wonder if there'll ever be an NFL GM who tries a moneyball move by giving away height. One of the challenges for short QBs is seeing over their offensive lines. What if you drafted shorter offensive linemen? Strong, power lifter types who average 6' or 6'2" instead of 6'4" or 6'5"? Then you could consider sub-6' QBs. You'd have cash leftover for a deeper team, and you could maybe run a faster tempo offense since your smaller linemen might have better endurance.

    Shorter linemen usually mean shorter arms, which means that the defensive lineman are a few inches closer to the QB.

  118. @Camlost

    At the same time, I think MLB was about 20% black but is now only 8%. I don’t know what to make of it.
     
    In the 1970's the percentage of American Blacks in baseball was close to 30%.

    But nowadays American blacks are often too much of a management nightmare to endure, so most marginal or utility positions formerly filled by American blacks are now filled by Latins (including Black Latinos from the DR, Venezuela, etc.) who have better attitudes and may not speak enough English to even cause a potential problem if they wanted to do so.

    It's getting to the point that the only American blacks left are the true stars with unique skills so important that they are worth the management headache and potential for insubordination.

    Black former MLB star and notoriously troublesome headcase Gary Sheffield has made a ton of comments about how American blacks are now supplanted by Latinos because they "are easier to control". See this article.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2891875

    Blacks never say what they really mean. The “controllability” issue with blacks in MLB is a supply problem, not a demand issue. That is, blacks dropped baseball because, in contrast to the rest of life where they’re now exempt from white supervision, in baseball you have to take instruction from white coaches through the minor leagues. As a result of this collective decision by American blacks, Caribbean players are what baseball executives are left with. They might be relieved at the development, but they don’t drive it.

    • Replies: @Truth

    That is, blacks dropped baseball because, in contrast to the rest of life where they’re now exempt from white supervision, in baseball you have to take instruction from white coaches through the minor leagues.
     
    So every football and basketball coach... and record and studio executive...and government G-15, and military officer and Fortune 500 CEO is black now?

    Do you even have a brain?
  119. @Neoconned
    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.

    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.

    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.

    I am not sure about Luke kuechley and if he was not recruited heavily, but he is the best inside linebacker in the nfl these days, too. Don't forget Clay Matthews, either. Whites seem to be making a big jump in numbers on defense. And no one is even close as good as Gronk at tight end when he is healthy.

    It sort of reminds me of the non-story in the American Great Black Hope boxing media and how it is apparently not news that the best middleweight, light heavy, and heavyweight boxers are all former soviet bloc whites who physically and mentally intimidate black American opponents.

    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.

    Jordy Nelson is a rare talent, but he catches passes from unquestionably, the best football player in the world. He has been superb, but he has not even scratched breaking records.

    On the other hand, Calvin Johnson (who has been clocked a bit to much from reaching for errant passes, and is probably over the hill), Plays with a mediocore QB who can’t win games when he is not around.

    Nelson MIGHT be an all star playing with Stafford, but if you put Johnson, in his prime with Aaron Rodgers, they would have to change the rules the same way the NCAA did to prevent Kareem Abdul Jabbar from dunking.

    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    Not sure about that, remember Johnson was for many years the only pass catching option available for the Lions, and Stafford is a somewhat better than average QB who throws it a lot. Yes, Nelson had Aaron Rodgers, but Nelson had to begin the prime of his career with several other already established Pro Bowl WR's on the same team, Johnson didn't. Also, two years ago Nelson missed four or five games to injury, and then last season Rodgers missed half the season to injury, this was after Nelson had would should have been a Pro Bowl season three years ago even though he didn't make the Pro Bowl, so this year he finally got the recognition. Nelson over the last five years might be the best deep threat in the NFL, he has 14 TD catches of over 50 yards, and 18 TD's over 40 yards since late in the 2010 season. This season alone he has 5 TD's of over 50 yards, and 7 over 40 yards, including one on Darrelle Revis against New England.
  120. ” I just watched the Wolf of Wall Street so the notion that all Jews are, er, frugal isn’t working for me right now.”

    Jordan Belfort in his financial prime was wealthier than over 99 percent of NFL players past and present, so he could afford to spend money the way he did as at one time had a net worth of over $200 million dollars which in comparison makes a Black NFL player who makes $450 thousand dollars a year look like a Section 8 housing resident living on food stamps.

    Extremely few Black NFL players will ever make Jordan Belfort level money, yet the average Black NFL player spends like he is Jordan Belfort. Most Black NFL players spend more money than what they actually make per year and end up in the financial red by the end of the year.

    Most Jews don’t spend more money than they what they actually make, this is 100 percent fact. If a Jew on averages $450,000 a year in salary, he or she is not going to spend $1,450,000 a year if he or she does not already have that type of money in their savings account.

    Most Jews do not see money the way Negros see money. This is 100 percent fact. Hence why the Jewish poverty rate is nowhere Negro levels of poverty.

    • Replies: @EriK
    You are stuck on "winning" an argument that wasn't even started. I did agree with you after all, but you have to respond because that's just who you are. There is no such thing as 100% fact with regard to human behavior. Pretending otherwise is wrong. Pedantic, pretentious and petulant is no way to go through life. Lighten up.
    , @Ed
    Negroes? I mean really is it that hard for you to use Blacks? You can still get your disdain for Black folks across without using offensive terms to identify us.
  121. anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Chang
    There does seem to have been a rise in white WRs in the last decade. The big white TE is quite common, but the small quick white WR is more common in 2014 than I would have predicted 20 years ago. Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like. Precision, timing, and good hands.

    The deep ball star WR -- tall, lanky, fast and able to jump -- seems exclusively black.

    I think the rules limiting defense have opened a space for some of these white WRs to compete better. Not sure how exactly.

    the small quick white WR is more common in 2014 than I would have predicted 20 years ago. Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like. Precision, timing, and good hands

    Precision, timing and good hands can be drilled into a kid. If the number of white wide receivers has been increasing, that would fit Steve’s thesis.

    A lot of people in the comments have made assertions about whether the number of whites at this or that position is more or less than in the past. Does anyone have hard numbers, or are these just impressionistic statements? My own impression is that there have always been a lot of receivers in the NFL who were not particularly fast but succeeded because of their precision, timing and hands, and a lot of them have been white.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Howard Twilley survived 11 years with the Dolphins.

    I remember at Rice in the Tommy Kramer era, the best receivers were:

    1. A Howard Twilley like white guy with great hands and routes who caught maybe
    2. A fast white guy who was an excellent deep threat
    3. A fast, big black guy who seldom got open and tended to drop sure touchdown passes

    Not surprisingly, #3 got drafted, but not #2 or #1.

  122. @Felix
    Not only are the best ten to fifteen QBs in the game white, so too are a majority of the best TEs (Gronk, Witten, Miller, Ertz) and slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, Beasley). The fastest receiver, and maybe one of the fastest players in the league is a white guy from Kansas (Jordy Nelson, Green Bay).


    But the best player in the game, and should-be winner of this year’s MVP award is JJ Watt, who plays a position normally dominated by black guys (defensive end), and dominates it.



    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black "skill" positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white "deep threat" receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.


    If whites are so unsuited to playing wide receiver, you'd expect the only white guys good enough to make it as a pro to linger in the fringes, barely hacking it in the league. Yet the opposite is true: there are no mediocre white wide receivers, only stars. This certainly seems to imply that there is discrimination against whites at the wide receiver position: in order to make it as far as the NFL, a white dude doesn't have to merely be as good as the average black dude who made it that far: he has to be far superior.



    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that's more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end? Between getting a scholarship at a top college program and getting invited to the NFL combine, he never even sniffed getting a chance to play in the NFL, whereas many black athletes of similar talent are playing as we speak.

    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that’s more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end?

    Justin Smith is in his 14th year, so he’s not mediocre, but clearly you are overlooking some players. What about Chris Long? Is Shea McClellin mediocre enough? He was moved to LB this year. Margus Hunt? 10 tackles in 2 years?

    • Replies: @Anon2
    Funny thing about Margus Hunt is that he could have been a would class shot putter for Estonia. He is an amazing athlete and was drafted fully on potential. If he ever is able to play at full ability he could be a star. What holds him back is that he only started playing football in college.

    Chris Long is a pretty good player, but not at Watt or Smith level.
  123. MC Hammer for example spent over $40 million dollars in a year where he actually made only $30 million dollars off of the “Please Hammer Don’t Hurt Em” album. He was over $10 million dollars in the red a year after the most successful album of his career.

    The vast majority of Jews are too high in the IQ department to ever make a dumb Negro move like that. You have a higher chance of seeing a Anglo Saxon Protestant do something that stupid than you do of a Jew do something that stupid.

    Hence why you see so many Anglo Saxon Protestants who win the lottery blow away all of their Lottery winnings so quickly.

    • Replies: @anon
    Smart people don't play the lottery.
    , @Hare Krishna
    Corey Feldman?
  124. @Neoconned
    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.

    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.

    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.

    I am not sure about Luke kuechley and if he was not recruited heavily, but he is the best inside linebacker in the nfl these days, too. Don't forget Clay Matthews, either. Whites seem to be making a big jump in numbers on defense. And no one is even close as good as Gronk at tight end when he is healthy.

    It sort of reminds me of the non-story in the American Great Black Hope boxing media and how it is apparently not news that the best middleweight, light heavy, and heavyweight boxers are all former soviet bloc whites who physically and mentally intimidate black American opponents.

    I am not sure about Luke Kuechly and if he was not recruited heavily

    Luke Kuechly (2009)

    Rivals: 3-star, No. 37 in Ohio, No. 44 outside linebacker
    Scout: 3-star, No. 23 strong side linebacker

  125. @anon

    the small quick white WR is more common in 2014 than I would have predicted 20 years ago. Their skill set seems to rely on running ultra-precise short routes, quick slants and the like. Precision, timing, and good hands
     
    Precision, timing and good hands can be drilled into a kid. If the number of white wide receivers has been increasing, that would fit Steve's thesis.

    A lot of people in the comments have made assertions about whether the number of whites at this or that position is more or less than in the past. Does anyone have hard numbers, or are these just impressionistic statements? My own impression is that there have always been a lot of receivers in the NFL who were not particularly fast but succeeded because of their precision, timing and hands, and a lot of them have been white.

    Howard Twilley survived 11 years with the Dolphins.

    I remember at Rice in the Tommy Kramer era, the best receivers were:

    1. A Howard Twilley like white guy with great hands and routes who caught maybe
    2. A fast white guy who was an excellent deep threat
    3. A fast, big black guy who seldom got open and tended to drop sure touchdown passes

    Not surprisingly, #3 got drafted, but not #2 or #1.

  126. @Anonymous
    How can you remember Howard Twilley? You were 7 years old.

    I watched the Senior Bowl in January 1966 when I was 7. Twilley made about 12 catches and was MVP. It was one of the first football games I’d watched as a fan semi-conscious of what was going on in football and it made an impression on me. Similarly, the first football game I can recall listening to on the radio was the 1965 USC-UCLA game that Gary Beban won on a couple of long bombs in the fourth quarter.

  127. @EriK

    You do have yahoo knuckle headed white guys like Richie Incognito or Kyle Turley, but they are increasingly the exception.
     
    Incognito is unquestionably a knucklehead but his Wonderlic score was 32 (!).

    Wonderlic scores are suspect. The idea that Colin kaepernick has a 130+ IQ is ridiculous. I’m not too sure about Eli Manning’s 130+, either.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Back in the 1990s, a QB's IQ jumped from about 90 to 130 the two times he took the test. I doubt if the Wonderlic is built to withstand the kind of pressure a big time sports agent can apply to beating it by hook or by crook.
  128. @Marty T
    Wonderlic scores are suspect. The idea that Colin kaepernick has a 130+ IQ is ridiculous. I'm not too sure about Eli Manning's 130+, either.

    Back in the 1990s, a QB’s IQ jumped from about 90 to 130 the two times he took the test. I doubt if the Wonderlic is built to withstand the kind of pressure a big time sports agent can apply to beating it by hook or by crook.

  129. @Truth

    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.
     
    Jordy Nelson is a rare talent, but he catches passes from unquestionably, the best football player in the world. He has been superb, but he has not even scratched breaking records.

    On the other hand, Calvin Johnson (who has been clocked a bit to much from reaching for errant passes, and is probably over the hill), Plays with a mediocore QB who can't win games when he is not around.

    Nelson MIGHT be an all star playing with Stafford, but if you put Johnson, in his prime with Aaron Rodgers, they would have to change the rules the same way the NCAA did to prevent Kareem Abdul Jabbar from dunking.

    Not sure about that, remember Johnson was for many years the only pass catching option available for the Lions, and Stafford is a somewhat better than average QB who throws it a lot. Yes, Nelson had Aaron Rodgers, but Nelson had to begin the prime of his career with several other already established Pro Bowl WR’s on the same team, Johnson didn’t. Also, two years ago Nelson missed four or five games to injury, and then last season Rodgers missed half the season to injury, this was after Nelson had would should have been a Pro Bowl season three years ago even though he didn’t make the Pro Bowl, so this year he finally got the recognition. Nelson over the last five years might be the best deep threat in the NFL, he has 14 TD catches of over 50 yards, and 18 TD’s over 40 yards since late in the 2010 season. This season alone he has 5 TD’s of over 50 yards, and 7 over 40 yards, including one on Darrelle Revis against New England.

  130. @Felix
    Not only are the best ten to fifteen QBs in the game white, so too are a majority of the best TEs (Gronk, Witten, Miller, Ertz) and slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, Beasley). The fastest receiver, and maybe one of the fastest players in the league is a white guy from Kansas (Jordy Nelson, Green Bay).


    But the best player in the game, and should-be winner of this year’s MVP award is JJ Watt, who plays a position normally dominated by black guys (defensive end), and dominates it.



    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black "skill" positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white "deep threat" receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.


    If whites are so unsuited to playing wide receiver, you'd expect the only white guys good enough to make it as a pro to linger in the fringes, barely hacking it in the league. Yet the opposite is true: there are no mediocre white wide receivers, only stars. This certainly seems to imply that there is discrimination against whites at the wide receiver position: in order to make it as far as the NFL, a white dude doesn't have to merely be as good as the average black dude who made it that far: he has to be far superior.



    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that's more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end? Between getting a scholarship at a top college program and getting invited to the NFL combine, he never even sniffed getting a chance to play in the NFL, whereas many black athletes of similar talent are playing as we speak.

    The 2014 All-Pro teams were just released…

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000452986/article/2014-allpro-teams

    Fully 15 of the 26 first and second team offensive players are white, with 8 of 29 (if you count Watt twice, he made 2nd team as defensive tackle as well) defensive first and second teamers are white.

    Assuming these are the 55 best players in football, then 41.8% of the best players are white (23/55) in a league which is 27.7% white overall. This would tend to confirm your theory. (If Watt is counted once, then 22/54 is 40.7%–still much higher than league average).

    However part of the reason why blacks make up a higher percentage than they might otherwise has to do with the positions black players tend to play vs. whites. Take a typical white position–kicker. On a 53 man active roster, normally a team will only carry one place kicker and one punter (who often doubles as the holder–another position whites are overrepresented at). A typical black position–say defensive back–may have ten active players (like the Dallas Cowboys’ roster does) even though only four start. The attrition difference between typically white and black positions skews the numbers, meaning that although over 2/3 of NFLers are black, they don’t contribute to 2/3 of the value of a typical NFL team.

  131. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    To go with what others are saying about white defensive players, there are very few white safeties in the NFL, but two of the best overall (of any race) are Harrison Smith and Eric Weddle (consistent All Pro). White defensive line players such as Watt, Smith, Allen, and Kyle Williams all tend to play at an All Pro level as well. There are of course a few more middling white players as well. But is seems that of the white NFL players in these positions, that there is an inordinate amount of top level players. Since these positions are so dominated by blacks in most case a white player would have to have exceptional production.

  132. @ben tillman

    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that’s more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end?
     
    Justin Smith is in his 14th year, so he's not mediocre, but clearly you are overlooking some players. What about Chris Long? Is Shea McClellin mediocre enough? He was moved to LB this year. Margus Hunt? 10 tackles in 2 years?

    Funny thing about Margus Hunt is that he could have been a would class shot putter for Estonia. He is an amazing athlete and was drafted fully on potential. If he ever is able to play at full ability he could be a star. What holds him back is that he only started playing football in college.

    Chris Long is a pretty good player, but not at Watt or Smith level.

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Funny thing about Margus Hunt is that he could have been a would class shot putter for Estonia. He is an amazing athlete and was drafted fully on potential. If he ever is able to play at full ability he could be a star. What holds him back is that he only started playing football in college.

    Chris Long is a pretty good player, but not at Watt or Smith level.
     
    I'm not trying to demean these guys. In fact, I mention these guys because they impressed me in college. SMU is my local team, so I've followed Hunt's progress since he started playing football. I wish him every success in the NFL.
  133. Donovan McNabb also lacked the fire in the belly that all the truly great QBs have. There is an (in) famous clip of him laughing on the sidelines just after he threw a drive-ending interception in a playoff game that I think they eventually lost. No way would you ever see Montana, Brady, Elway, or Manning do that. They hate to lose.

  134. iSteveFan says:

    Hence why you see so many Anglo Saxon Protestants who win the lottery blow away all of their Lottery winnings so quickly.

    Really? And what do you define as many? Can you back up this assertion with actual figures? I can’t seem to recall seeing any Anglo Saxon Protestants who win the lottery blowing way all of their winnings. Of course I’ve never met or known any Anglo Saxon Protestant who won the lottery in the first place. I would not be surprised if it happened. I just can’t imagine that one would see many Anglo Saxon Protestants blowing their lotto winnings.

  135. @Steve Sailer
    Also, you are going to suddenly find out you have all sorts of relatives and old friends who had your back.

    ESPN had a great documentary (called “Broke”) about why most pro athletes end up broke. The three reasons: flashy living, bad investments, and friends and family. F&F are a double whammy because they want you to buy them things, and they twist your arm to invest in their businesses that fail. The most surprising (to me) ex-athlete appearing on the show: Bernie Kosar, who had been paying for houses for an enormous crowd of people.

  136. @ben tillman

    That quote might be an impressive smoking gun coming from someone other than Barry Switzer, the guy probably holds the title of worst head coach to ever win a Super Bowl. ....

    The Cowboys literally had so much talent that even with a horrible pro coach like Switzer who his QB refused to talk too still won the SB....
     
    Thus, Jerry proved his point that any of 500 coaches could win a Super Bowl with that team.

    ... but that team’s talent was Johnson’s doing, not Jerry Jones the owner who fired him.
     
    That's what they say. Was there ever a player more overrated than Herschel Walker?

    Scott Woerner made the big plays that beat Clemson and Notre Dame and Belue/Scott made the "property damage" play that beat Florida in Georgia's championship season, and Herschel's numbers aren't any better than those of Worley/Hampton in the late 1980's. Herschel was just a physical specimen who was durable and able to carry the ball 30+ times a game.

    Was there ever a player more overrated than Herschel Walker?

    Archie Griffin?

    • Replies: @D.Jones
    Or Johnny 'the ordinary superstar' Rodgers?
  137. @D/Jones

    Was there ever a player more overrated than Herschel Walker?
     
    Archie Griffin?

    Or Johnny ‘the ordinary superstar’ Rodgers?

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Or Johnny ‘the ordinary superstar’ Rodgers?
     
    Thanks for your competing candidates for the "most overrated" crown. I have just a handful of football memories from the time when I was 6 or younger. One of those is watching the 1971 OU/NU game at my friend Scott's house. That punt return was a big deal, and I can see why it might unduly inflate his reputation.
  138. @Jefferson
    " I just watched the Wolf of Wall Street so the notion that all Jews are, er, frugal isn’t working for me right now."

    Jordan Belfort in his financial prime was wealthier than over 99 percent of NFL players past and present, so he could afford to spend money the way he did as at one time had a net worth of over $200 million dollars which in comparison makes a Black NFL player who makes $450 thousand dollars a year look like a Section 8 housing resident living on food stamps.

    Extremely few Black NFL players will ever make Jordan Belfort level money, yet the average Black NFL player spends like he is Jordan Belfort. Most Black NFL players spend more money than what they actually make per year and end up in the financial red by the end of the year.

    Most Jews don't spend more money than they what they actually make, this is 100 percent fact. If a Jew on averages $450,000 a year in salary, he or she is not going to spend $1,450,000 a year if he or she does not already have that type of money in their savings account.

    Most Jews do not see money the way Negros see money. This is 100 percent fact. Hence why the Jewish poverty rate is nowhere Negro levels of poverty.

    You are stuck on “winning” an argument that wasn’t even started. I did agree with you after all, but you have to respond because that’s just who you are. There is no such thing as 100% fact with regard to human behavior. Pretending otherwise is wrong. Pedantic, pretentious and petulant is no way to go through life. Lighten up.

  139. @Dave Pinsen
    I wonder if there'll ever be an NFL GM who tries a moneyball move by giving away height. One of the challenges for short QBs is seeing over their offensive lines. What if you drafted shorter offensive linemen? Strong, power lifter types who average 6' or 6'2" instead of 6'4" or 6'5"? Then you could consider sub-6' QBs. You'd have cash leftover for a deeper team, and you could maybe run a faster tempo offense since your smaller linemen might have better endurance.

    I was one of those short, power-lifter offensive lineman in high school. Line play is a battle for leverage, and the taller guy with the longer arms has a better chance of getting his hands one you first. Strength and leverage don’t scale together.

  140. @Felix
    Not only are the best ten to fifteen QBs in the game white, so too are a majority of the best TEs (Gronk, Witten, Miller, Ertz) and slot receivers (Welker, Edelman, Beasley). The fastest receiver, and maybe one of the fastest players in the league is a white guy from Kansas (Jordy Nelson, Green Bay).


    But the best player in the game, and should-be winner of this year’s MVP award is JJ Watt, who plays a position normally dominated by black guys (defensive end), and dominates it.



    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black "skill" positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white "deep threat" receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.


    If whites are so unsuited to playing wide receiver, you'd expect the only white guys good enough to make it as a pro to linger in the fringes, barely hacking it in the league. Yet the opposite is true: there are no mediocre white wide receivers, only stars. This certainly seems to imply that there is discrimination against whites at the wide receiver position: in order to make it as far as the NFL, a white dude doesn't have to merely be as good as the average black dude who made it that far: he has to be far superior.



    Or look at defensive end. We currently have JJ Watt, Jared Allen (at the end of his rope but had an amazingly productive career) , Connor Barwin, Paul Kruger, and that's more or less it. All of those guys are to a greater or lesser degree superior to your average (ie black) NFL defensive end. Where is the mediocre (by NFL standards) white defensive end? Between getting a scholarship at a top college program and getting invited to the NFL combine, he never even sniffed getting a chance to play in the NFL, whereas many black athletes of similar talent are playing as we speak.

    notes–
    That is a very good point, and one that I was going to make myself. You see very few if any marginal white players at the typically black “skill” positions. Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker are the only two white “deep threat” receivers in the NFL. Nelson is one of the 3 or 4 best wideouts in the game and has been elite on a consistent basis for many seasons now. Decker is not among the first tier receivers but certainly makes the top 15. On the other hand, there are 40 to 50 completely anonymous, mediocre black receivers in the league.

    This is the exact situation that existed with Blacks coming into MLB for the first years of integration. Only star blacks got signed–Jackie Robinson, Campanella, Don Newcombe, Larry Doby, etc. it was quite a while before mediocre blacks got to ride the bench.

  141. @Neoconned
    I am finding the new patterns far more interesting than more failed black QBs.

    Best defensive player in the nfl? JJ Watt.
    Best (or at worst second best) receiver in the nfl? Jordy Nelson.

    What do both have in common? Late bloomers who had to walk on to their colleges. I think whites being much later bloomers than blacks physically is a major aspect that hurts them for college recruiting and thus the NFL. I am pretty sure Wes Welker had to walk on, too.

    I am not sure about Luke kuechley and if he was not recruited heavily, but he is the best inside linebacker in the nfl these days, too. Don't forget Clay Matthews, either. Whites seem to be making a big jump in numbers on defense. And no one is even close as good as Gronk at tight end when he is healthy.

    It sort of reminds me of the non-story in the American Great Black Hope boxing media and how it is apparently not news that the best middleweight, light heavy, and heavyweight boxers are all former soviet bloc whites who physically and mentally intimidate black American opponents.

    Luke Kuechley was a big high school star here in Cincinnati at Xavier HS, a Jesuit school which recruits metro-wide. he went to Boston College, a Jesuit Univ, and had decent success there, so I don’t think yiou can count him as a late bloomer.

  142. If the standards are different it’s because they have to be, because blacks and whites have different academic profiles. But I don’t think it’s accurate that there’s a significant number of really dumb athletic whites that can play college sports. And if there were, they’d definitely get in somewhere, because coaches want to win.

    There’s a reason Duke, Clemson, and Maryland stopped going to bowl games in the 1960’s. In 1960, the ACC imposed a requirement that football and basketball had to score a minimum of 750 on the SAT to get a scholarship. The minimum was increased to 800 in 1964. This kept out White players like Larry Csonka and, in basketball, Pete Maravich.

    Even before integration, Clemson and South Carolina kept losing “dumb athletic whites” (especially to Georgia) because of the 800 Rule. It was big part of why South Carolina seceded from the ACC in 1971.

  143. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    I don’t think it’s accurate that there’s a significant number of really dumb athletic whites that can play college sports.

    And you base that on what, exactly?

    There probably aren’t that many great white athletes with IQ well under 100.

    I’d expect that at least half of the great white athletes in the country have IQ’s under 100 and are ineligible to play college sports. White American players in the NFL and NBA have passed through a pretty narrow gateway – they’re high enough in IQ to get into college (which is a requirement black players don’t have to pass) but not so high in IQ that they decide to go into a lifetime career in law or medicine.

    if there were (dumb but talented white players) they’d definitely get in somewhere, because coaches want to win.

    They are clearly NOT getting in, because if they WERE getting in then the graduation rates for white student-athletes would mirror those of black-student athletes instead of being greatly superior. Commenters here have an annoying habit of sledgehammering in facts around their preconceived view of “the way things work”.

  144. @Anon2
    Funny thing about Margus Hunt is that he could have been a would class shot putter for Estonia. He is an amazing athlete and was drafted fully on potential. If he ever is able to play at full ability he could be a star. What holds him back is that he only started playing football in college.

    Chris Long is a pretty good player, but not at Watt or Smith level.

    Funny thing about Margus Hunt is that he could have been a would class shot putter for Estonia. He is an amazing athlete and was drafted fully on potential. If he ever is able to play at full ability he could be a star. What holds him back is that he only started playing football in college.

    Chris Long is a pretty good player, but not at Watt or Smith level.

    I’m not trying to demean these guys. In fact, I mention these guys because they impressed me in college. SMU is my local team, so I’ve followed Hunt’s progress since he started playing football. I wish him every success in the NFL.

  145. @AnotherDad
    Russell Wilson's Wonderlic may only be respectable, but he is smart enough to have gotten divorced this year *before* he gets the big payday.

    That's like doubling his salary right there! Compare to chumps like say ... Jordan or Kobe.

    Russell Wilson divorced his wife because he caught her having an affair with his best friend Golden Tate. Golden Tate was then traded to Detroit Lions and Russell divorced his wife. She should have waited until Wilson signed the mega-contract to have an affair. Now she just gets only part of $500,00 a year salary. She could have been set for life if she waited a year.

    http://www.ibtimes.com/russell-wilson-rumors-wife-allegedly-cheated-qb-seahawks-teammate-golden-tate-says-gossip-1581462

  146. @D.Jones
    Or Johnny 'the ordinary superstar' Rodgers?

    Or Johnny ‘the ordinary superstar’ Rodgers?

    Thanks for your competing candidates for the “most overrated” crown. I have just a handful of football memories from the time when I was 6 or younger. One of those is watching the 1971 OU/NU game at my friend Scott’s house. That punt return was a big deal, and I can see why it might unduly inflate his reputation.

    • Replies: @anon
    Johnny Rodgers won the Heisman because he was a great college player. The qualities that make a great college player are not always the same as the ones that make a great pro. Most Heisman trophy winners have had mediocre or worse pro careers, which doesn't mean they weren't great college players.
  147. @Jefferson
    " I just watched the Wolf of Wall Street so the notion that all Jews are, er, frugal isn’t working for me right now."

    Jordan Belfort in his financial prime was wealthier than over 99 percent of NFL players past and present, so he could afford to spend money the way he did as at one time had a net worth of over $200 million dollars which in comparison makes a Black NFL player who makes $450 thousand dollars a year look like a Section 8 housing resident living on food stamps.

    Extremely few Black NFL players will ever make Jordan Belfort level money, yet the average Black NFL player spends like he is Jordan Belfort. Most Black NFL players spend more money than what they actually make per year and end up in the financial red by the end of the year.

    Most Jews don't spend more money than they what they actually make, this is 100 percent fact. If a Jew on averages $450,000 a year in salary, he or she is not going to spend $1,450,000 a year if he or she does not already have that type of money in their savings account.

    Most Jews do not see money the way Negros see money. This is 100 percent fact. Hence why the Jewish poverty rate is nowhere Negro levels of poverty.

    Negroes? I mean really is it that hard for you to use Blacks? You can still get your disdain for Black folks across without using offensive terms to identify us.

  148. @ Benn Tillman

    “There’s a huge amount of prejudice against shorter players at every position in baseball.”

    Very true; and there’s also a lot of over-listing on the programs. Unlike football or basketball there’s no combine where you can look up players actual, measured heights in baseball (if you do, you’ll find that NFL and NBA program heights are often 1″-2″ more than their measured heights, particularly for basketball players and shorter NFL players – especially running backs – e.g., 5’8″ Brian Westbrook from the Eagles was listed at 5’10”; in basketball, Kevin Love is listed variously at 6’9″ or 6’10”, but is actually 6’7.75″).

    Back in 2008 I had the opportunity to stand among the Philadelphia Phillies and a lot of the players were shorter than their program heights, especially the shorter players. I’m only 5’8.5″ and Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, and Shane Victorino were all shorter than me (Rollins is only about 5’6″). Chase Utley, Pedro Feliz, Greg Dobbs and Geoff Jenkins were all listed at 6’1″. That appeared to be legitimate for Utley and Dobbs, but Feliz and Jenkins were both under 6′ (but taller than me). Jason Werth, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell were very tall. It’s hard for me to judge exactly because they were so much taller than me, but Werth was clearly the tallest and Burrell was noticeably taller than Howard, even though both are listed at 6’4″. The only player who was under-listed was pitcher Jamie Moyer (listed at 6′, but seemed to be in the 6’1″-6’2″ range – taller than Utley).

    Also, here’s an average for the NFL combines from 2008-12 by position:
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/8953829/2013-nfl-draft-five-year-nfl-combine-averages

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    In baseball, the theory used to be that short and wide was good for hitters: short for smaller strike zone but wide for power. The 1970s Dodgers were exceptionally wide, most famously Ron Cey but also Garvey, Lopes, Reggie Smith etc.
  149. anon • Disclaimer says:
    @ben tillman

    Or Johnny ‘the ordinary superstar’ Rodgers?
     
    Thanks for your competing candidates for the "most overrated" crown. I have just a handful of football memories from the time when I was 6 or younger. One of those is watching the 1971 OU/NU game at my friend Scott's house. That punt return was a big deal, and I can see why it might unduly inflate his reputation.

    Johnny Rodgers won the Heisman because he was a great college player. The qualities that make a great college player are not always the same as the ones that make a great pro. Most Heisman trophy winners have had mediocre or worse pro careers, which doesn’t mean they weren’t great college players.

    • Replies: @anon
    Looked up Johnny Rodgers and was reminded that he was one of those players who got a rich CFL contract. He went to Canada, where he was the best player in the league for four years. Came back to the NFL, where he was slowed down by leg injuries his first year and then blew out his knee, so he never really got a chance to show his stuff there.
    , @Anonymous

    The qualities that make a great college player are not always the same as the ones that make a great pro.
     
    You'll find this amusing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMwEm6xkDNc

    In all fairness Rogers did have some good years in the CFL playing in Montreal.

    As did Flutie!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Flutie#Canadian_Football_League_career

  150. Not sure about that, remember Johnson was for many years the only pass catching option available for the Lions,

    and Stafford is a somewhat better than average QB who throws it a lot.

    This falls along the cause…effect conundrum.

    Calvin Johnson was “the only pass-catching option” because he was so far superior to everyone else, there was no point in looking at them. Calvin Johnson was a rookie in 2007 and the starting WRs in 2006 were:

    Roy Williams, who in 2006 had 82 catches for 1310 yards and 7 TDs (In 12 games!)
    Mike Furrey who had 98 catches for 1086 yards and 6TDs

    And this production came with John Kitna who had 21 TDs and 22 INT on a 3-13 team.

    In 2007 they still had Furrey (61, 664, 1) and they still had Williams (64 838, 5) and Shaun McDonald had an excellent year in the slot (79 943 6) and Johnson was a rookie who still started 10/15 games (48 756 4). Kitna as mediocre again with 18 TDs and 20 INT and the team went to 7-9.

    In Johnson’s 2nd year, the team was 0-16 and Furrey, Williams and McDonald were all in and out of the lineup, facing double and triple coverage from the first quarter he had a monster year (18 1331 12)
    with Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, Drew Stanton, Drew Hinton, and Dante Culpepper as his QB.

    In the aggregate, the Lions QBs completed 55.2% of their passes, and threw 18TDs (12 to CJ) 19 INT, for 6.5 yards an attempt and fumbled 11 times.

    The next year, Furrey, McDonald and Williams were all released, Stafford in his rookie year had 13TDs, 20INT and 4 fumbles, the QBs combined for 16 TDs and FORTY FIVE turnovers, but Johnson still caught 67 balls and scored 5TD is 14 games.

    Johnson is now playing with is 3rd bad coach (Marinelli, Schwartz, Caldwell) his third OC, and a QB who has 131 TDs (roughly half to Johnson) and 124 TO.

    http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/detroit-lions/roster/2007

    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    Not denying any of this, but Jordy Nelson was playing with elite Pro Bowl WR's on the same team with him, no doubt several of them were open on a great deal of plays, this is good for the QB, because he has multiple good options, but probably bad for the least experienced good WR in the bunch statistically ( Which was what Nelson was in 2010 and maybe 2011 to a lesser extent ), however because Calvin Johnson was the overwhelming best choice and the team was often down late in games and had to throw, this would tend to benefit his individual statistics even if the QB play was far less effective in the aggregate than that of Rodgers. That was my point, Rodgers is far better than any of the Detroit QB's, but he often had three or four or five options to throw to on a play.

    If Johnson had been on Green Bay, he would have won more, but would also have certainly put up less fantastic statistics, because he would have been sharing the pass catching more equally with the other members of his receiving corps. It's a lot easier to favor one WR when the team sucks and the QB turnover is high, than when you have multiple good options and the QB play is great. A great QB is exploiting matchups, the defense can't double cover every WR or TE. A bad QB on the other hand is probably throwing it to his best WR as much as he can, even when he isn't necessarily open. Josh Gordon would have been a classic example last year, revolving door and poor QB play, great statistical output.

    , @ben tillman
    Truth,

    You could have bolstered your argument by mentioning Johnson's college experience catching passes from Reggie Ball. That wasn't easy.

    By the way, what's wrong with Caldwell as a coach? He did a great job with Wake Forest in 1999.

    As for Kitna, the guy was always marginal as an NFL starter, but he showed some amazing leadership qualities when he took over after Romo broke his collarbone in 2010. The whole team rallied around this ultra-Christian White guy. It was really impressive.
  151. @RT
    @ Benn Tillman

    "There’s a huge amount of prejudice against shorter players at every position in baseball."

    Very true; and there's also a lot of over-listing on the programs. Unlike football or basketball there's no combine where you can look up players actual, measured heights in baseball (if you do, you'll find that NFL and NBA program heights are often 1"-2" more than their measured heights, particularly for basketball players and shorter NFL players - especially running backs - e.g., 5'8" Brian Westbrook from the Eagles was listed at 5'10"; in basketball, Kevin Love is listed variously at 6'9" or 6'10", but is actually 6'7.75").

    Back in 2008 I had the opportunity to stand among the Philadelphia Phillies and a lot of the players were shorter than their program heights, especially the shorter players. I'm only 5'8.5" and Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, and Shane Victorino were all shorter than me (Rollins is only about 5'6"). Chase Utley, Pedro Feliz, Greg Dobbs and Geoff Jenkins were all listed at 6'1". That appeared to be legitimate for Utley and Dobbs, but Feliz and Jenkins were both under 6' (but taller than me). Jason Werth, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell were very tall. It's hard for me to judge exactly because they were so much taller than me, but Werth was clearly the tallest and Burrell was noticeably taller than Howard, even though both are listed at 6'4". The only player who was under-listed was pitcher Jamie Moyer (listed at 6', but seemed to be in the 6'1"-6'2" range - taller than Utley).

    Also, here's an average for the NFL combines from 2008-12 by position:
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/8953829/2013-nfl-draft-five-year-nfl-combine-averages

    In baseball, the theory used to be that short and wide was good for hitters: short for smaller strike zone but wide for power. The 1970s Dodgers were exceptionally wide, most famously Ron Cey but also Garvey, Lopes, Reggie Smith etc.

  152. @Truth

    Not sure about that, remember Johnson was for many years the only pass catching option available for the Lions,
     


    and Stafford is a somewhat better than average QB who throws it a lot.
     
    This falls along the cause...effect conundrum.

    Calvin Johnson was "the only pass-catching option" because he was so far superior to everyone else, there was no point in looking at them. Calvin Johnson was a rookie in 2007 and the starting WRs in 2006 were:

    Roy Williams, who in 2006 had 82 catches for 1310 yards and 7 TDs (In 12 games!)
    Mike Furrey who had 98 catches for 1086 yards and 6TDs

    And this production came with John Kitna who had 21 TDs and 22 INT on a 3-13 team.

    In 2007 they still had Furrey (61, 664, 1) and they still had Williams (64 838, 5) and Shaun McDonald had an excellent year in the slot (79 943 6) and Johnson was a rookie who still started 10/15 games (48 756 4). Kitna as mediocre again with 18 TDs and 20 INT and the team went to 7-9.

    In Johnson's 2nd year, the team was 0-16 and Furrey, Williams and McDonald were all in and out of the lineup, facing double and triple coverage from the first quarter he had a monster year (18 1331 12)
    with Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, Drew Stanton, Drew Hinton, and Dante Culpepper as his QB.

    In the aggregate, the Lions QBs completed 55.2% of their passes, and threw 18TDs (12 to CJ) 19 INT, for 6.5 yards an attempt and fumbled 11 times.

    The next year, Furrey, McDonald and Williams were all released, Stafford in his rookie year had 13TDs, 20INT and 4 fumbles, the QBs combined for 16 TDs and FORTY FIVE turnovers, but Johnson still caught 67 balls and scored 5TD is 14 games.

    Johnson is now playing with is 3rd bad coach (Marinelli, Schwartz, Caldwell) his third OC, and a QB who has 131 TDs (roughly half to Johnson) and 124 TO.

    http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/detroit-lions/roster/2007

    Not denying any of this, but Jordy Nelson was playing with elite Pro Bowl WR’s on the same team with him, no doubt several of them were open on a great deal of plays, this is good for the QB, because he has multiple good options, but probably bad for the least experienced good WR in the bunch statistically ( Which was what Nelson was in 2010 and maybe 2011 to a lesser extent ), however because Calvin Johnson was the overwhelming best choice and the team was often down late in games and had to throw, this would tend to benefit his individual statistics even if the QB play was far less effective in the aggregate than that of Rodgers. That was my point, Rodgers is far better than any of the Detroit QB’s, but he often had three or four or five options to throw to on a play.

    If Johnson had been on Green Bay, he would have won more, but would also have certainly put up less fantastic statistics, because he would have been sharing the pass catching more equally with the other members of his receiving corps. It’s a lot easier to favor one WR when the team sucks and the QB turnover is high, than when you have multiple good options and the QB play is great. A great QB is exploiting matchups, the defense can’t double cover every WR or TE. A bad QB on the other hand is probably throwing it to his best WR as much as he can, even when he isn’t necessarily open. Josh Gordon would have been a classic example last year, revolving door and poor QB play, great statistical output.

  153. anon • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    Johnny Rodgers won the Heisman because he was a great college player. The qualities that make a great college player are not always the same as the ones that make a great pro. Most Heisman trophy winners have had mediocre or worse pro careers, which doesn't mean they weren't great college players.

    Looked up Johnny Rodgers and was reminded that he was one of those players who got a rich CFL contract. He went to Canada, where he was the best player in the league for four years. Came back to the NFL, where he was slowed down by leg injuries his first year and then blew out his knee, so he never really got a chance to show his stuff there.

  154. @Truth

    Not sure about that, remember Johnson was for many years the only pass catching option available for the Lions,
     


    and Stafford is a somewhat better than average QB who throws it a lot.
     
    This falls along the cause...effect conundrum.

    Calvin Johnson was "the only pass-catching option" because he was so far superior to everyone else, there was no point in looking at them. Calvin Johnson was a rookie in 2007 and the starting WRs in 2006 were:

    Roy Williams, who in 2006 had 82 catches for 1310 yards and 7 TDs (In 12 games!)
    Mike Furrey who had 98 catches for 1086 yards and 6TDs

    And this production came with John Kitna who had 21 TDs and 22 INT on a 3-13 team.

    In 2007 they still had Furrey (61, 664, 1) and they still had Williams (64 838, 5) and Shaun McDonald had an excellent year in the slot (79 943 6) and Johnson was a rookie who still started 10/15 games (48 756 4). Kitna as mediocre again with 18 TDs and 20 INT and the team went to 7-9.

    In Johnson's 2nd year, the team was 0-16 and Furrey, Williams and McDonald were all in and out of the lineup, facing double and triple coverage from the first quarter he had a monster year (18 1331 12)
    with Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, Drew Stanton, Drew Hinton, and Dante Culpepper as his QB.

    In the aggregate, the Lions QBs completed 55.2% of their passes, and threw 18TDs (12 to CJ) 19 INT, for 6.5 yards an attempt and fumbled 11 times.

    The next year, Furrey, McDonald and Williams were all released, Stafford in his rookie year had 13TDs, 20INT and 4 fumbles, the QBs combined for 16 TDs and FORTY FIVE turnovers, but Johnson still caught 67 balls and scored 5TD is 14 games.

    Johnson is now playing with is 3rd bad coach (Marinelli, Schwartz, Caldwell) his third OC, and a QB who has 131 TDs (roughly half to Johnson) and 124 TO.

    http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/detroit-lions/roster/2007

    Truth,

    You could have bolstered your argument by mentioning Johnson’s college experience catching passes from Reggie Ball. That wasn’t easy.

    By the way, what’s wrong with Caldwell as a coach? He did a great job with Wake Forest in 1999.

    As for Kitna, the guy was always marginal as an NFL starter, but he showed some amazing leadership qualities when he took over after Romo broke his collarbone in 2010. The whole team rallied around this ultra-Christian White guy. It was really impressive.

  155. No offense meant, Unladen Swallow, but I think the point is better served using a basketball analogy:

    In 1983 the Chicago Bulls had two very good players, Orlando Woolridge, who averaged 19.3 points a game, and was and all-star, and Quinton Dailey, a shooting guard, who averaged 18.2. Mr. Dailey was one of the NBA’s up and coming stars in his second season.

    The next season they drafted a pretty good player from North Carolina with the #3 pick. His name was Michael Jordan.

    The next year Mr. Dailey one of the NBA’s rising stars was a sixth man; the year after that, he was gone, and they say he never recovered from getting his ass kicked in practice by Michael Jordan every day. In Jordan’s rookie season, Woolridge had a fantastic year: 23ppg, 6 reb; the year after that he was great again, 21ppg. The next year….he was gone too. As was George Gervin whom they signed to “compete” with MJ because he was so much better than “very good” NBA players that there was no point in having them.

    Now I pointed out earlier that the Detroit receivers the year Johnson arrived caught 180 passes for 2404 yards, that’s better than any year Donald Driver and Greg Jennings had, PLAYING WITH TWO HALL OF FAME QBs and a year later Furey and Williams were gone and Driver and Jennings kept playing.

    Now I posted where Furrey and Williams caught

  156. @Sunbeam
    You guys think $450,000 goes a long way eh?

    Okay let's make up a hypothetical rookie.

    Our rookie defies the odds. He is either drafted late (or is a free agent) and makes the team.

    The team signs him for $450,000.

    Our guy is going to play in, oh say NYC.

    You following all this?

    Now tell me where you think his paycheck goes. And be detailed because I am going to go straight at your grill for every dumb assumption you make, every stupid detail that shows you haven't thought things through.

    Some things you better cover, by doing some research.

    How many of these guys move to the city of the team they are playing for full time?

    What kind of automobile does everyone drive? You really think you are going to drive an econobox when everyone else has an Escalade? Some do, most don't.

    You going to budget, and eat Ramen? Eat out like everyone else that isn't married?

    You are going to need new clothes you know. And the ladies just got more... expensive, and I am not talking about prostitutes. You do realize you are a beyond healthy young man, in a highly sexualized culture right?

    Got an agent? How much did he get?

    What about taxes? Lessee NY you have state, and city taxes in addition to federal. Not sure how it works with the Giants and Jets, I think both teams operate out of Jersey now.

    Ya know, if you are smart you better get an accountant. But face it, you aren't smart, you are a rookie and this is the first time you have ever had money in your life. You get to learn about taxes firsthand in a very demanding way.

    Already got a kid? Pretty common. You know you will probably get the chance to have another one real quick.

    Got a mama?

    You know your work environment? They might call it hazing other places. But your new job, well the veterans at your position expect the rookies to pay for a big shindig for them at some point in the season. It is a tradition. And you are not really sure what happens if you refuse to fork in.

    More items will occur to me. I expect you to be very thorough if you want to refute anything I've written.

    Otherwise, just shut up.

    ESPN’s series 30 for 30 had an episode called “Broke’ about how easy it is to end up broke with a multimillion dollar contract.

    • Replies: @Truth



    ESPN’s series 30 for 30 had an episode called “Broke’ about how easy it is to end up broke with a multimillion dollar contract.
     
    It's a lot easier with $26,000.
  157. @Peter Akuleyev

    The NFL, in contrast, is pretty bad for fringe NFL players,
     
    Exploitative sure, but it is still generally a good deal for the players. The stupider or more disadvantaged players generally have no access to alternative (legal) professions that would ever allow them to enjoy the status and social benefits of being an NFL player, even if it is short lived. Seems to me the more intelligent fringe players are still able to use the NFL brand later in life to promote themselves in their business or coaching careers. Who do you think has a better advantage in the business world, all else being equal? Joe Czerniak, former varsity wrestler from Ohio State or Joe Czerniak, former football player from Ohio State who played two years as a backup right guard for the Carolina Panthers?

    funny you bring up college wrestlers. They are actually renowned for their network in both the corporate world and on Wall Street.

    Easy to make a bet on guys who have had the discipline to stick at the sport through college.

  158. @Jefferson
    MC Hammer for example spent over $40 million dollars in a year where he actually made only $30 million dollars off of the "Please Hammer Don't Hurt Em" album. He was over $10 million dollars in the red a year after the most successful album of his career.

    The vast majority of Jews are too high in the IQ department to ever make a dumb Negro move like that. You have a higher chance of seeing a Anglo Saxon Protestant do something that stupid than you do of a Jew do something that stupid.

    Hence why you see so many Anglo Saxon Protestants who win the lottery blow away all of their Lottery winnings so quickly.

    Smart people don’t play the lottery.

  159. @anon
    Johnny Rodgers won the Heisman because he was a great college player. The qualities that make a great college player are not always the same as the ones that make a great pro. Most Heisman trophy winners have had mediocre or worse pro careers, which doesn't mean they weren't great college players.

    The qualities that make a great college player are not always the same as the ones that make a great pro.

    You’ll find this amusing.

    In all fairness Rogers did have some good years in the CFL playing in Montreal.

    As did Flutie!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Flutie#Canadian_Football_League_career

  160. @svigor fan
    Blacks never say what they really mean. The "controllability" issue with blacks in MLB is a supply problem, not a demand issue. That is, blacks dropped baseball because, in contrast to the rest of life where they're now exempt from white supervision, in baseball you have to take instruction from white coaches through the minor leagues. As a result of this collective decision by American blacks, Caribbean players are what baseball executives are left with. They might be relieved at the development, but they don't drive it.

    That is, blacks dropped baseball because, in contrast to the rest of life where they’re now exempt from white supervision, in baseball you have to take instruction from white coaches through the minor leagues.

    So every football and basketball coach… and record and studio executive…and government G-15, and military officer and Fortune 500 CEO is black now?

    Do you even have a brain?

  161. @donut
    ESPN's series 30 for 30 had an episode called "Broke' about how easy it is to end up broke with a multimillion dollar contract.

    ESPN’s series 30 for 30 had an episode called “Broke’ about how easy it is to end up broke with a multimillion dollar contract.

    It’s a lot easier with $26,000.

  162. @Jefferson
    MC Hammer for example spent over $40 million dollars in a year where he actually made only $30 million dollars off of the "Please Hammer Don't Hurt Em" album. He was over $10 million dollars in the red a year after the most successful album of his career.

    The vast majority of Jews are too high in the IQ department to ever make a dumb Negro move like that. You have a higher chance of seeing a Anglo Saxon Protestant do something that stupid than you do of a Jew do something that stupid.

    Hence why you see so many Anglo Saxon Protestants who win the lottery blow away all of their Lottery winnings so quickly.

    Corey Feldman?

  163. @Steve Sailer
    The NFL exploits a lot of its nonstars.

    Major League Baseball is worse to minor leaguers (a guy I knew was amazed at how much worse playing in the minors was than playing for Stanford), but it's pretty awesome if you make the big leagues, even if you are not very good by MLB standards. The NFL, in contrast, is pretty bad for fringe NFL players, but it doesn't have the huge fringe of minor league players.

    On the other hand, being a minor league baseball player doesn't beat you up physically too much. For example, I knew a couple of guys who looked like they were headed for the MLB as flamethrowing closers, but they each blew out their arms in Double A ball by the time they were 25. That's sad, but one wound up an MBA, the other an MD. My quasi-cousin could still throw a football about 60 yards, but he'd complain that he used to be able to throw it 70.

    Steve, I just finished John Feinstein’s latest book, Where Nobody Knows Your Name, about life in Triple-A ball. It shocking how little these guys make, some as little $2,150 per month for a 6-month season, up to a maximum of $95K for a 7-year veteran. The competition is fierce for a MLB call-up because they get the major league minimum of $505K prorated for every second they’re in the majors.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    And the ten hour bus rides are a drag.
  164. @Brutusale
    Steve, I just finished John Feinstein's latest book, Where Nobody Knows Your Name, about life in Triple-A ball. It shocking how little these guys make, some as little $2,150 per month for a 6-month season, up to a maximum of $95K for a 7-year veteran. The competition is fierce for a MLB call-up because they get the major league minimum of $505K prorated for every second they're in the majors.

    And the ten hour bus rides are a drag.

  165. @Steve Sailer
    What's the advantage of very tall offensive linemen other than just a bigger frame to hang mass onto?

    Longer arms. They can push you and you can’t push them back.

  166. I am curious what the Wonderlic scores of these top quarterbacks were. Especially as it pertains to QB ratings, since you would think that the two would be closely related. Also wondering where Mariota and Winston could fall in this list. Wondering if either could fall into the worst pre NFL draft Wonderlic scores of all time? Some of these are listed here and it is entertaining to see: http://wonderlictestsample.com/most-disappointing-wonderlic-scores/

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