1.8 million vaccinated (~21% pop.)
~72% of all 60+ years old
~80% of all 70+ years old
This week we expect to see the effect of the vaccines, by a drop in the relative number of 60+ years old out of the critically ill patients. Our projection is the blue dashed line pic.twitter.com/OrAjl9WqrJ
— Eran Segal (@segal_eran) January 10, 2021
The Pfizer vaccine takes about two weeks to start working. The Israelis started mass vaccinations about three weeks ago, so the number of new cases in Israel should start to be impacted this week (two week lag after first dose, and then a week lag for an infection to turn into a case), the number of new hospitalizations next week, and the number of deaths by the end of January.
But these are moving targets. As you may have noticed, this pandemic is a rollercoaster ride. The number of new cases could decline next week even if the vaccine is not working at all. Or the number of cases could go up for awhile even if the vaccine is working perfectly.
One way to tell if the Israeli vaccination campaign is working as planned is not from the gross numbers, but from their demographics. If the elderly start to decline as a percentage of symptomatic cases, then as a % hospitalizations, then of ICU patients, and, finally, of deaths, then it’s working.