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The Acid Test of Vaccination
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The Pfizer vaccine takes about two weeks to start working. The Israelis started mass vaccinations about three weeks ago, so the number of new cases in Israel should start to be impacted this week (two week lag after first dose, and then a week lag for an infection to turn into a case), the number of new hospitalizations next week, and the number of deaths by the end of January.

But these are moving targets. As you may have noticed, this pandemic is a rollercoaster ride. The number of new cases could decline next week even if the vaccine is not working at all. Or the number of cases could go up for awhile even if the vaccine is working perfectly.

One way to tell if the Israeli vaccination campaign is working as planned is not from the gross numbers, but from their demographics. If the elderly start to decline as a percentage of symptomatic cases, then as a % hospitalizations, then of ICU patients, and, finally, of deaths, then it’s working.

 
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  1. Altai says:

    It should be a pretty good test since the large Orthodox population has, like in the US, been running epic infection rates and has refused to go along with social distancing. They are also the ones taking the vaccine in the greatest numbers.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  2. Thoughts says:

    Something happened at Del Amo Mall in Torrance CA, 500 teenagers rushed it

  3. Altai says:

    That lag in immunity though could be a problem if the vaccination is very rapid. Maybe people start to engage in more risk compensation before they should.

  4. anon[381] • Disclaimer says:

    The cult of “let’s all pretend we don’t know what gender you are” is getting out of control. The usually sensible Academia Stack exchange site advises that you should state your gender on a course syllabus lest the students be confused about what your gender is…

    https://academia.stackexchange.com/questions/161064/do-i-have-to-include-my-pronouns-in-a-course-outline

  5. glib says:

    Maestro Steve is correct. For example all over Europe death rates started dropping precipitously, without vaccines (specifically, after week 49 in 2020)

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    So I do not know that Israel has anything to offer w.r.t. significant data.
    Edit: note the Israel graph at the link. Decreasing well before vaccines.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Jack D
  6. @glib

    When the pandemic gets scary, people hunker down, the pandemic gets less scary, people go out more, the pandemic gets more scary, etc.

    Vaccines are our best hope to break this tedious cycle. If new cases are dropping among older Israelis a week from now, then there’s a big bright light at the end of the tunnel.

  7. glib says:
    @Steve Sailer

    I was only mentioning the quality of the data. Israel has abnormally low mortality right now, indeed the lowest of the last 3 years. If it reverts to the mean it could even be constructed as an anti-vaxx fact. So it works both ways. I also note with suspicion Israel’s addition to these data tables this last Fall.

  8. Mike Tre says:

    Here’s your new Capitol Police Chief:

  9. The ONLY way we could be certain these vaccines work, would be:
    1) Isolate the virus, in real life, in real time. Not computer models and “artist’s impressions”, real actual micrographs please.
    2) Infect thousands of people in a proper clinical trial to prove the existence and pathology of this virus.
    3) Infect thousands of vaccinated people in a proper clinical trial to see if they are protected and if so, at what level.
    Since not one of these three steps has been done so far, this whole issue is just blowing smoke up our collective ass.
    Now THAT would be doing science, instead of just “following” it like a lonely puppy dog with his head up his own backside.
    Also, watch out for lots old fogeys keeling over from “normal” things like diabetes, heart attacks, pneumonia and just plain old world weariness. Suddenly, none of them will have died OF covid19 anymore, just WITH.

  10. @Steve Sailer

    There’s also this little thingy called Mortality Displacement.

  11. @Thoughts

    They are called “youths” rather than “teenagers.” That is the correct terminology nowadays.

    • Replies: @Alfa158
  12. Anon7 says:

    OT: The invasion of the Congressional Spaces by non-mask-wearing people means that the entire congress should be under quarantine for fourteen days. Too late to organize an impeachment vote!

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  13. Jack D says:
    @paranoid goy

    That’s not the only way and it’s highly unethical to intentionally infect people with a deadly disease in order to test a vaccine. Nor is there any need to do so. The virus is circulating wild in the community and so people will get it anyway so in order to conduct a trial you just have to vaccinate them (and not vaccinate a control group) and they will take care of exposing themselves unintentionally. Which is exactly what was done and there is great scientific certainty that the vaccines work, as much as is possible for any vaccine.

  14. Jack D says:
    @glib

    Steve explains it above. Even if the overall rates are falling, if you vaccinate one group (the elderly) ahead of the general population then their rate will fall even more than the overall rate and so you can glean useful data from this even amid an overall decline.

    • Agree: Jus' Sayin'...
    • Replies: @glib
  15. On this site over the weekend, Gilad Atzmon posted about vaccines in Israel and how Arab Israelis were largely refusing to take the jab … and are in better health than the Israeli Jews who are getting vaccinated, two Israelis joining the long list of those dropping dead shortly after the jab
    https://www.unz.com/gatzmon/guinea-pigs-united/

    Re the 2 dead in Israel after receiving covid vaccine, article after the 2nd case
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/88-year-old-dies-hours-after-vaccine-doctors-stress-he-was-seriously-ill/

    11 dead in usa after vaccine jabs, per the CDC Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)

    11 deaths following Covid vaccine administration have now been reported to the @cdc, as well as 38 life threatening responses, five cases of permanent disability, and more than 1,000 ER visits or hospitalisations

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-war.html

    Numerous post-vaccine deaths all over the place … not so much covered by the glorious mainstream media

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    , @Yngvar
  16. Anon[126] • Disclaimer says:

    Didier Raoult and his team at IHU Mediterranée says this coronavirus has more mutations than other coronavirus, hence concern about medium term efficacity of the vaccine.

    Per two people who actually have read the Pfizer documentation, Pfizer says the following groups should not take the vaccine: children under 16, pregnant and breastfeeding women, people with severe allergies, people taking anticoagulants, people with immuno-compromised systems. Pfizer is also saying —buried in the fine print— the vaccine’s effectiveness drops after two months. Are these usual disclaimers?

    I have not been able to find a link to the Pfizer document.

  17. Aardvark says:
    @paranoid goy

    Suddenly, none of them will have died OF covid19 or the injection anymore, just WITH.

  18. Bartleby says: • Website

    I presume those who are the front of the vaccine line are the super-concerners who are very cautious, vaccine or no. These are the people who wear masks the most and actually give 6 feet, or usually more if they can help it. In other words, people least likely to become infected; the initial “vaccine effect” won’t be that notable. I don’t believe this will happen until ensuing vaccine waves that include people who tend to be more routinely “reckless.”

  19. glib says:
    @Jack D

    “Fall even more” being the key. You can look at previous viral waves in those links and see that rises and falls are not linear. Meaning they fall (or rise) even more on their own. I can be convinced that one year of data will provide some solid evidence though.

  20. @paranoid goy

    1) Isolate the virus, in real life, in real time. Not computer models and “artist’s impressions”, real actual micrographs please.

    Has been done. You think with the most important pathogen since 1918-9 the people do do electron microscopy and whatever new suitable imaging techniques are ignoring SARS-CoV-2???

    The rest was sufficiently covered by @Jack D, you’re demanding vaccine developers do unethical, borderline illegal stuff to satisfy your idea of what science must be, vs. how it’s actually practiced with lethal pathogens. That said, groups in the U.K. and the Netherlands have been mooting human challenge trials, but as I recall only for those vaccinated. Exposing unvaccinated people to this lethal virus just to satisfy your and other’s demands is stark raving mad, so you’re just going to have to settle for challenge trials to animal models like rhesus macaque monkeys.

  21. George says:

    “Medical Apartheid”: Israeli Vaccine Drive Excludes Millions of Palestinians in Occupied Territories
    https://www.democracynow.org/2021/1/5/israel_vaccines_palestinian_territories_mustafa_barghouti

    • Replies: @J
    , @dearieme
  22. peterike says:
    @Steve Sailer

    When the pandemic gets scary, people hunker down, the pandemic gets less scary, people go out more, the pandemic gets more scary, etc.

    Or it follows the same 8-12 week cycle that such things always follow, and which every “wave” of Covid has followed, and which we’ve understood for decades, right up until last March.

    BTW, there’s another “acid test” for the vaccine.

    • Agree: Hippopotamusdrome
    • Replies: @HA
  23. peterike says:

    This is the REAL acid test. Let’s hope Italy leads the charge for the rest of us.

    • Agree: Kyle
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  24. In the UK they are going all out to get people vaccinated including opening seven high-volume regional vaccine centers at places like Epsom (horse) Race Course (near London), open 12 hours a day, as well as general practice offices and hospitals in every community.

    However, they are still having to sometimes bin vaccines because of people not showing up for appointments, and predictably IT crashes and failures are causing snafus, with elderly people waiting outside for hours in subzero January temperatures.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9133765/Coronavirus-UK-Doctors-throw-away-Covid-vaccine-doses-patient-no-shows.html

    This does not bode well for the US, which will not even have the much-easier-to-store-and-handle AstraZeneca vaccine until around April.

    The one advantage that the US has is that many elderly people have cars and will be able to sit in the parking lots with the engine and heater running while waiting for their turn. Not a very ‘green’ solution, but under the circumstances…

    The disadvantage that the US may have is that there are 50 different ‘states’, each one of whom has an idiosyncratic governor who is literally a law unto himself, and that there may be issues related to payment from different Medicare providers taking up more time and resources.

    Of course, a possible advantage would be having 50 different IT systems running, so much less likely to have crashes or overload slowing down the whole system as in the UK.

    • Replies: @Travis
  25. @Mike Tre

    She looks like she would shoot from the hip in the event of any invasion of the Capitol.

    • Replies: @Alfa158
  26. @Bartleby

    That really depends if the vaccine lines are volunteers, or whether health care givers are calling up those most at risk first. Obviously, many of the early recipients will be health care workers, but they have great potential to spread the virus to the most vulnerable.

    With 50 different states, each will be vying to show that its methodology is better than that of its neighbors.

  27. @Steve Sailer

    Hunkering down? Scary? More scary? You’ve got to see this for what it is, Steve. I’m sorry, but I’m getting pissed now. You’re an intelligent open-minded guy who spends time searching for the truth. You always come across reasonable, civil, and usually with common sense.

    This is not a big enough deal to shut down an economy for and force people to go around everywhere with retarded face diapers and corrosive chemical sheilds on for! C’mon man! Do you get out at all? The hotel I was at last night had an occupancy of less than 5%. This has been regular. I’ve been told by hotel managers that over 50% of hotels will shut down for good. Small business is getting reamed too. People will not be able to get back on their feet with their businesses.

    US Big Biz is taking over more than they already have, and later much of it will get looted by the Chinese at fire sale prices, when the dollar goes down, just as the finance guys looted Russia in the 1990s. It was going to happen to some degree anyway, but this PanicFest is accelerating it big time.

    You will look back on your writing and see that your were inadvertantly a small part of pushing this panic and big distraction. People are acting like “we’ll just wait until the vaccine/the cases go down/Fauci says and go back on with our lives. It’ll be like before.” No, it will not!

    Get over it, people. It’s the wrong SHTF that you’re worried about.

    • Disagree: Corvinus
    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    , @Marty
    , @Stan d Mute
  28. Travis says:

    how many people are dying in Israel of COVID ? The 7 day average indicates 36 people are dying from COVID daily, which is the highest level since October.

    so we should see the number of people dying from COVID fall below 12 very quickly. After peaking in October with 42 people per day dying of COVID the daily deaths fell to just 12 per day in November. So even without a vaccine we should expect daily deaths would soon start to fall below 25 deaths per day. The average COVID death on Israel is 79 years old. So if deaths remain above 25 per day then the vaccine probably does not work well for people over the age of 75.

    Israel has largely escaped significant deaths from COVID, with just 3,500 deaths in 2020 and a case fatality rate of .8%. In contrast to New Jersey which had 18,000 COVID deaths in 2020. The Population of Israel is 10% larger than New Jersey but deaths in NJ are over 5 times greater.

    While here in NJ 95 people are dying from COVID each day, they have used just 35% of their vaccines, mostly vaccinating people under the age of 40. This will have almost no effect on the daily CV deaths.

  29. @Mike Tre

    Debra Winger looked tougher in that scene where she dons Richard Gere’s Navy hat

    https://www.oscars.org/videos-photos/officer-and-gentleman-ny/?fid=35376

  30. J says:
    @George

    They have their own government, recognized by more countries than Israel’s. They spend their tax monies on weapons not vaccines. There must be a limit for accepting responsibility for our sworn enemies.

  31. theMann says:

    The Acid test of vaccination – that is hilarious:

    1. Really convenient that the vaccines are rolling out just as “The Covid” cases are declining anyway. Start labeling death Certs, particularly of the Elderly, with what actually killed them and you just about make “The Covid” disappear. Especially if you also stop the bogus test, aka rPCR.

    2. The measure of the vaccine will begin in about a year, when sterilizations, deaths, and grotesque long term reactions multiply throughout the target populations.

    3. Are the Israelis getting a completely different vaccine? That would be …..significant.

  32. George says:

    Experts urge dose of transparency as medical data traded to Pfizer for vaccines

    Privacy activists ask if pharma firm is truly only getting publicly available information, decry lack of transparency and fear what will happen if records are de-anonymized

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/experts-urge-dose-of-transparency-as-medical-data-traded-to-pfizer-for-vaccines/

  33. @Thoughts

    Well I doubt any war criminals work in the mall so we’ll call this peaceful protest instead of domestic terrorism

  34. @Anon

    I have not been able to find a link to the Pfizer document.

    Here it is, I think:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=WB

  35. dearieme says:
    @George

    Complain to the Palestinian government of those territories.

  36. @Anon

    Per two people who actually have read the Pfizer documentation, Pfizer says the following groups should not take the vaccine: children under 16, pregnant and breastfeeding women, people with severe allergies, people taking anticoagulants, people with immuno-compromised systems. Pfizer is also saying —buried in the fine print— the vaccine’s effectiveness drops after two months. Are these usual disclaimers?

    I have not been able to find a link to the Pfizer document.

    Well, since they’re lying about everything but the age restriction, they’re not about to give you links to the actual document(s). Two good sources, the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) page, search using your browser (Ctrl-F or F3) on “12/11/2020” which is the day they granted the EUA page. Or this Pfizer page. See respectively the fact sheets for Recipients and Caregivers and Healthcare Providers, or select your country under “I am NOT a Healthcare Professional” or dive into the other side for those. The former says, and this has not changed since I first made a copy 12/12/20:

    WHAT SHOULD YOU MENTION TO YOUR VACCINATION PROVIDER BEFORE YOU GET THE PFIZER-BIONTECH COVID-19 VACCINE?

    Tell the vaccination provider about all of your medical conditions, including if you:

    • have any allergies
    • have a fever
    • have a bleeding disorder or are on a blood thinner
    • are immunocompromised or are on a medicine that affects your immune system
    • are pregnant or plan to become pregnant
    • are breastfeeding
    • have received another COVID-19 vaccine

    WHO SHOULD GET THE PFIZER-BIONTECH COVID-19 VACCINE?

    FDA has authorized the emergency use of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine in individuals 16 years of age and older.

    WHO SHOULD NOT GET THE PFIZER-BIONTECH COVID-19 VACCINE?

    You should not get the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine if you:

    • had a severe allergic reaction after a previous dose of this vaccine
    • had a severe allergic reaction to any ingredient of this vaccine

    The health care providers (HCP) document says:

    Contraindications

    Do not administer Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine to individuals with known history of a severe allergic reaction (e.g., anaphylaxis) to any component of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (see Full EUA Prescribing Information).

    Warnings

    [ Be well prepared for anaphylactic reactions, monitor recipients for immediate adverse reactions. ]

    Immunocompromised persons, including individuals receiving immunosuppressant therapy, may have a diminished immune response to the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine.

    Pfizer – BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine may not protect all vaccine recipients.

    The HCP fact/full prescribing info at the bottom sheet goes into more details on some of this, for example that we simply have no data on use of the vaccine and pregnancy or lactation.

    I continue to wonder why so many people blatantly lie about such easily falsifiable information, but I guess the answer is that it demonstrably works, the FUD about these mRNA vaccines has been thickly laid on with a trowel. And you should wonder about those people, who they might be, or might be working for.

  37. Alfa158 says:
    @Peter Johnson

    Not to me however. Everyone knows that “youths” has become nothing more than a thinly-veiled euphemism for the dreaded “N” word, so I now use “teenager” as the word for young people in general, and “youngster” for Black young people specifically. When someone says “youth” they are really saying “N”, and I find it dishonest and annoying.
    I admit I am a racist in the pure sense that I believe that race is real, but I still don’t like hiding behind mealy-mouthed euphemisms like “youths”. People should either have guts to say the word “N” that they really mean, or else say Black.

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    , @Peter Johnson
  38. Alfa158 says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    Luckily she looks like she would miss.
    Unluckily the stray bullets would hit an innocent bystander.

  39. @Jonathan Mason

    Obviously, many of the early recipients will be health care workers, but they have great potential to spread the virus to the most vulnerable.

    There’s a probably more important reason: hospital capacity is staff limited and there are no reserves left in the US as of now, so if you can eliminate the leading source of your workers being out sick or in quarantine after a possible exposure, you don’t have to bend the curve so much.

    I’ve seen this both locally with relief a few weeks ago but now Christmas exposure we assume caused numbers are climbing back up, and reported by “Aesop” of the Raconteur Report blog for southern California, his hospital is outside of LA county but just as burdened and without a question is giving substandard care to many who are COVID-19 positive, they have to wait days to get into an isolation room or ICU. One of his more recent comments is that now ICU beds most frequently are opened by someone dying, and he’s hearing the same sort of things from other hospitals in the area.

  40. AKAHorace says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    This is not a big enough deal to shut down an economy for and force people to go around everywhere with retarded face diapers and corrosive chemical sheilds on for! C’mon man! Do you get out at all? The hotel I was at last night had an occupancy of less than 5%. This has been regular. I’ve been told by hotel managers that over 50% of hotels will shut down for good. Small business is getting reamed too.

    The idea of wearing “retarded face diapers” is that it means that you don’t have to shut the economy down. They are not a big deal, in several countries in Asia they are worn just to prevent the spread of the seasonal flu.

    US Big Biz is taking over more than they already have, and later much of it will get looted by the Chinese at fire sale prices,

    Well if you don’t have faith in Sailers judgement what about the Chinese ? They took Covid seriously and their economy has not suffered.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  41. This week we expect to see the effect of the vaccines, by a drop in the relative number of 60+ years old out of the critically ill patients.

    Drop in “critically ill patients”? What will that prove? What about a drop in deaths? They can fudge ‘patients’ stats easier than ‘death’ stats.

    …number of new cases in Israel
    …number of new cases could decline
    …number of cases could go up
    …percentage of symptomatic cases

    Casedemic.

  42. @Thoughts

    Something happened at Del Amo Mall in Torrance CA, 500 teenagers rushed it

    Something odd happened in Boston too https://thenwfireblog.com/2021/01/10/multiple-boston-fires-look-suspicious/

    Maybe overly excited yutes have begun celebrating MLK day a week early.

  43. Mr. Anon says:
    @brabantian

    Numerous post-vaccine deaths all over the place … not so much covered by the glorious mainstream media

    Also plenty of stories in the media about the guy who says that there is no such thing as COVID who then gets it and – well, take it from me, this is serious man, this disease is real, wear your mask, etc. I saw one story yesterday about a man who died of COVID after getting it from his wife (how they establish that they don’t say) right after she went back to her job as a school teacher. Well that’s certainly timely in terms of pushing the NEA’s current agenda.

    Funny though, we never see news stories about “COVID-deniers” who are just fine and who will remain so. Nor do we see stories about the person who did every single thing that Anthony Fauci told us to do on the particular day he told us to do it (wear masks, not wear masks, social distance, put the right foot in, whatever) – that person who sanitizes his mail, wears a mask while driving alone in his car, etc., who none-the-less dies of the ‘Rona.

  44. Mr. Anon says:
    @Mike Tre

    There’s a new Sky Marshal and a new strategy:

    • Thanks: Polemos
  45. One common stereotype of Ashkenaz Jews is that they are neurotically obsessed with medical issues. It’s part of Woody Allen’s Jewish humor schtick. My personal experience tends to confirm this stereotype.

    This Ashkenaz trait not only helps to explain Israel’s vaccination policy but also the extent of the current Rona Panic compared with the relaxed attitude towards the just as widespread and just as dangerous Hong Kong Flu back during the 1968 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic. I suspect that one cause of the difference in response is the increased influence of Jews in politics and the MSM between now and then.

    As a 70-something retired epidemiologist with multiple co-morbidities I’m still not particularly concerned about being infected with SARS-COV-2, nor developing Covid-19 if I am, nor becoming seriously ill if I do show symptoms of Covid-19, nor dying if I do become seriously ill. The odds in each case, based on current data, favor the better outcome, i.e., no infection, no symptoms, no illness, no death.

    OTOH, I have no intention of taking a vaccine that has not undergone the usual large scale tests of long term efficacy and safety, tests which typically run for several years. I am further resolved on abstaining from vaccination since this vaccine is based on an entirely novel method of action, production, suspension, and distribution, and involves introducing long strings of manufactured mRNA into the cellular processes of those injected.

    It hardly reassures me that the Big Pharma developers, producers and distributors of these vaccines demanded absolute immunity from any civil and/or criminal lawsuits before even beginning their research. It only confirmed my concerns when the government shielded itself in a similar fashion.

    Godspeed to the Israelis. I’m happy they’ve volunteered as guinea pigs. If things work out over the next five years maybe I’ll then join the ranks of the vaccinated.

  46. peterike says:

    Well this is hilarious. One of the worst of the Covid dictators, Monster Cuomo, is changing his tune!

    Gosh, I wonder why the change of heart?

    The funny part is that if you go through the thread, it’s full of angry Karens shrieking that NONONO we must NOT re-open!! The very same Karens Cuomo has spent nine months stoking with an endless stream of total bullshit. And those same Karens spent nine months kissing his ass calling him a hero, and now they turn on a dime.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
  47. Jack D says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    As a 70-something retired epidemiologist with multiple co-morbidities I’m still not particularly concerned about being infected with SARS-COV-2, nor developing Covid-19 if I am, nor becoming seriously ill if I do show symptoms of Covid-19, nor dying if I do become seriously ill. The odds in each case, based on current data, favor the better outcome, i.e., no infection, no symptoms, no illness, no death.

    I’m glad you are so optimistic but the Center for Evidence Based Medicine lists the case fatality rate for Covid for people age 70-79, at 8% or 1 in 12. While these odds are strictly speaking “in your favor” they ain’t chopped liver. Maybe it’s just neurotic Jew in me, but I wouldn’t choose to play Russian roulette with those kind of odds if I could be safely vaccinated instead. Whatever the risks of the vaccine are, it’s not an 8% risk of death.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

  48. Have you got your Jab yet, Sailer? If you’re willing to travel, Salem OR is giving them away to all comers at its fairgrounds. Oregon has about 150,000 doses and we need to use them PRONTO before they rot in the subzero frigerators. Demand is very low here for this gene- and cell-altering experimental poison guaranteed to cause future autoimmune disorders along with overall poor function of any cells altered by The Jab. Whoda thunkit!

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Reg Cæsar
  49. Jack D says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Funny though, we never see news stories about “COVID-deniers” who are just fine and who will remain so. Nor do we see stories about the person who did every single thing that Anthony Fauci told us to do on the particular day he told us to do it (wear masks, not wear masks, social distance, put the right foot in, whatever) – that person who sanitizes his mail, wears a mask while driving alone in his car, etc., who none-the-less dies of the ‘Rona.

    It’s all a matter of odds. There are people who never smoke a cigarette and get lung cancer anyway and people who smoke 2 packs a day and live to 100. This doesn’t mean that smoking doesn’t increase your risk of lung cancer. It does and not taking the proper measures against Covid increases the odds that you will get Covid. Period.

    • Agree: Dissident
  50. @Jus' Sayin'...

    OTOH, I have no intention of taking a vaccine that has not undergone the usual large scale tests of long term efficacy and safety, tests which typically run for several years.

    We have large scale trials, as an epidemiologist you can actually tell us how statistically significant the early for an FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) effiacy results were (ask for links). Of course, this being an emergency and all even if you think that’s mostly due to hysterical Jews, the safety testing for the first step of the EUAs was limited to following one half of the trial subjects who got the vaccine for two months, based on the claim that the vast majority of severe adverse events show up in the first month and a half.

    I am further resolved on abstaining from vaccination since this vaccine is based on an entirely novel method of action, production, suspension, and distribution, and involves introducing long strings of manufactured mRNA into the cellular processes of those injected.

    Everything you say in that sentence is wrong except for production and suspension. You should learn something about the previous generations of “active” vaccines using live viruses.

    It hardly reassures me that the Big Pharma developers, producers and distributors of these vaccines demanded absolute immunity from any civil and/or criminal lawsuits before even beginning their research.

    Again a citation needed, except in this case there was the existing Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program invoked as soon as the DHS declared this was an emergency, a variation on the Reagan era “vaccine court” for childhood vaccines (and what do you know, Health.mil directs people to it, so injuries from exotic vaccines people in the military take are covered).

    Moderna and BioNTech don’t count as “Big Pharma,” but the former had their vaccine candidate done in a weekend, by January 13th. BioNTech started their vaccine development on January 27. Here’s the Federal Register in friendly form, deceleration effective February 4th. And these countermeasure programs don’t last forever, so we’ll have to see as this plays out.

    It only confirmed my concerns when the government shielded itself in a similar fashion.

    You’re surprised Republicans are not eager to enrich the plaintiff’s bar, which is one of the Democrat’s most important set of donors? That governments don’t want to pay many times as much for vaccines, if they’d be available at all, due to our insane civil court system?

    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
  51. Jack D says:
    @BenKenobi

    {Sticks fingers in ear}

    Nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah, I can’t hear you!

    Obviously talking to some people here is like talking to the wall, but maybe there are some that will listen to sense.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
  52. @Alfa158

    “so I now use… “youngster” for black young people specifically.”

    I prefer pickaninny.

  53. Bartleby says: • Website
    @Jonathan Mason

    Keep in mind that many medical workers are choosing not to be vaccinated.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  54. What difference does it make how many “cases” there are?

    The case only matters if the person DIES.

    The case fearmongering is absurd.

    The fact is that as more people are exposed and there are more cases…..and we see that 99.8% of the people survive…..the hysteria should STOP.

    Since the hysteria has not subsided we know FOR SURE that the underlying goal of the magic virus has nothing to do with public health.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  55. @Jack D

    “you will get Covid. Period.”

    Three periods in a row form an ellipsis, which communicates an unfinished, open-ended thought, rather the opposite of representing a triple-strong period. Three periods make a “not done yet.” I hope you don’t mind my pointless musing.

  56. @Thoughts

    Something happened at Del Amo Mall in Torrance CA, 500 teenagers rushed it

    Malls are so 20th century. Kids born in the 21st probably just discovered its existence.

  57. @Thoughts

    Half-price sale at Waldenbooks?

  58. Mike Tre says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    “You think with the most important pathogen since 1918-9…”

    You are out of your mind.

  59. @Jus' Sayin'...

    “Godspeed to the Israelis.”

    Is Steve playing his Weird Al card in order to obtain a COVID shot at the Israeli consulate?

  60. @Mike Tre

    “Yogananda Pittman” sounds like “Kamala Harris” in reverse. Kind of like how Madonna and Bruce Springsteen are equally Italian.

    Yogananda Pittman = Adopting many a tan. Monday, a pagan titan. A toady manning tap. A dynamo at panting.

    Notating many a pad. Pity a gnat madonna: “Am tiny; gonna adapt! Am donating a panty!”

    It must be a sign when they come in whole paragraphs.

    • Replies: @epebble
  61. peterike says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...

    One common stereotype of Ashkenaz Jews is that they are neurotically obsessed with medical issues…
    This Ashkenaz trait not only helps to explain Israel’s vaccination policy but also the extent of the current Rona Panic …

    I made this same point months ago. Two notable examples of otherwise level headed people who went off the deep end with Covid are the Lion of the Blogosphere blogger, and Ron Unz. Both Jewish.

    Tom Frieden is another Jewish Corona-panic pusher. But he’s also deeply China connected, so that might be more of why he shills the way he does.

  62. Travis says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    in 2009 the United States was able to vaccinate 60 million people in 8 weeks with the new Swine flu vaccine, despite shortages. https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=109603
    at the going rate it will take us 8 months to vaccinate 60 million Americans.

    millions of vaccines distributed to the states in December are still sitting in freezers across the nation and and few Americans over the age of 75 has been vaccinated. 80% of the vaccines have gone to people under the age of 50, the very people who have the lowest risk of being hospitalized with COVID. So far the rollout seems designed to prolong the epidemic and keep the daily deaths high until the new administration takes over. This helps the democrats keep the lockdowns going to appease their constituents while helping t kill off thousands of elderly whites.

  63. @peterike

    “Well this is hilarious. One of the worst of the Covid dictators, Monster Cuomo, is changing his tune!”

    Governor Kate Hitler in Oregon did a similar aboutface on schools a couple weeks ago, letting them all open per the judgment of each individual school district and abandoning the absurdly low statewide Hoax19 case count benchmarks previously set by Mz. Hitler (it was something like 30 cases per 100,000 residents) even whilst case counts are at record highs and the bodycount attributed to Hoax19 rises daily. It’s obvious no one in charge really believes Hoax19 is a crisis.

    A client came to my office last week diapered up as every client has since the advent of CoronaHoax and he obsessively alternated from mouthdiaper to chindiaper – he never stopped touching his diaper – so I could see a red diaper-shaped blotchy staph infection on his face extending from bridge of his nose to just below his bottom lip. He basically had diaper rash – ON HIS FACE. He’s a Millennial, so it serves him right. Millennials love them some facediapers.

    • LOL: U. Ranus
  64. Yngvar says:
    @brabantian

    Same story here in Norway.

    Jan. 5. The Norwegian Medicines Agency is investigating two deaths in which nursing home residents have died after receiving the corona vaccine.
    […]
    About 400 people die in Norwegian nursing homes a week.
    […]
    The studies under the basis for the temporary approval of the vaccine do not include people over the age of 85.
    –Therefore, we know little about how any side effects will affect the very oldest. We assume that any side effects will be the same in the oldest as in younger age groups. This is something we pay close attention to,” says Madsen.

    The nursing homes are prioritized for the vaccine.

  65. Marty says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Did that hotel cut its rates? I was thinking about a little golf jaunt to Santa Barbara, but the hotel rates there are the same as before Covid.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  66. @AKAHorace

    The idea of wearing “retarded face diapers” is that it means that you don’t have to shut the economy down.

    How’s that work, Horace? People are wearing these, and the small business economy* is still shut down. I thought the point of the face diapers was to “flatten the curve” for a couple of weeks, back in April or something. The problem has not been the disease itself but the ridiculous hysteria that was ginned up and has been pushed for nearly a year now, by government and big media.

    It’s not about judgement in China. It’s about orders, and its about a tangled disastrous mess of information. People don’t trust what they read on wechat about it. We don’t know, and they likely don’t know, how many people died in Wuhan from the COVID. They’ve instituted an Orwellian system of health scoring, which fits in nicely with the rest of the Orwellian stuff going on, that the COVID was a very convenient excuse for.

    As opposed to Ron Unz’s theory that a US organization spread the COVID to China, and against the (mine, anyway) common-sense assumption that it spread from a lab in Wuhan due to poor procedures, I could really see another one. If one starts with the results that we see in America and China, to me a good conspiracy theory is that the CCP let this virus loose purposefully to both start the PanicFest in the US to derail the economy and have an excuse to add this new Orwellian process in China with the health scoring.

    .

    * along with anyone else with an excuse, such as local government, partly shut down again, lower schools doing 1/2 weeks, universities still having remote classes, sports venues staying closed, etc…

  67. anon[266] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Please rant harder and poast moar! You and Omar Mateen surely can turn the entire course of US policy just by babbling about “face diapers” in a blog com box that hardly anyone reads! It’s got to work, but only if you double then triple down! Plus be sure to write on your driveway with chalk! That’s got to get the attention of your governor!

    MOAR RANTING! MOAR!

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  68. @Marty

    It’s not my own money, Marty. Sorry, I can’t tell you now, but I’ll try to find out.

    I’ll tell you this, on a pleasure trip 3 months back we went to a downtown hotel that was something like 5% occupied, yet they wouldn’t budge a bit on the rate! (That’s what happens when you walk up though. They figure you’re committed.)

  69. @Known Fact

    They find that Tennessee nurse yet?

    Probably ran off with Jack Ma …

    .

    … who is hiding out in the same place as Jimmy Hoffa.

  70. Yngvar says:

    You are doing 1918 once more!

    (January 10, 2021) By Sunday, 45 soldiers had tested positive for COVID-19, according to the local newspaper Nye Troms. All arriving soldiers to northern Norway are routinely tested and quarantined. The municipal health authorities in Bardu and Målselv, where the military camps are located, say 41 U.S. Marines and four British soldiers are infected, newspaper VG reports.

    (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2021/01/spike-covid-19-cases-among-us-marines-arriving-northern-norway)

    🙂 Just kidding, your soldiers are very welcome to train with us.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  71. Anon7 says:

    OT:

    Suppose Republicans decided to support impeachment proceedings against President Trump, but there isn’t time to formally remove him from office.

    Suppose Trump decided to form a third party going forward.

    Which would be bigger: the Trump party or the Republican Party?

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  72. @Mr. Anon

    Oh, I’m a mask denier, and I got stories, buddy! You’ve probably read most of them, though, Mr. Anon.

    As far as others’ stories, I am still partial to that one with the guy dying of COVID on the United Airlines flight. Ha, I guess not everyone is completely truthful when filling out those checkboxes when checking in for their flights. The guy died of the Kung Flu en-route, man! Then, did the airline go quarantine all those people sitting near him? Or did the masks all save their asses? Who knows? When Black Plague 2.0 hits, you don’t ask such questions.

    • Agree: Jim Christian
  73. @Adam Smith

    What an excellent job! That is Peak Stupidity material. Thanks, Adam.

    (I did have to look up the original to see it was by Corey Hart.)

    • Thanks: Adam Smith
  74. @Robert Dolan

    What difference does it make how many “cases” there are?

    The case only matters if the person DIES.

    So why is the CDC’s famous publication the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (albeit like the CDC as a whole, now fairly pozzed)?

    Side note: Cool, they have short summaries with a moderate amount of detail on the two vaccine EUAs, “The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ Interim Recommendation for Use of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine — United States, December 2020” and “The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ Interim Recommendation for Use of Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine — United States, December 2020“.

    Back to morbidity: cases also matter for the fraction that get maimed by COVID-19, and I hope some of those with “long COVID” are only taking months to regain their full health or thereabouts. Wikipedia has an article on it, and the conclusions I get from skimming it is that it’s real, but we don’t have a good handle on it. Perhaps as many as 10% with symptoms longer than three weeks, which should not be controversial even for Floomers, and 2% longer than twelve weeks, again a fraction that doesn’t sound improbable.

    Death is … well, actually hotly denied by COVID-19 truthers, but it is indeed a rather well defined binary outcome vs. life, but definitely not the only metric we care about. As recently discussed in Unz.com comments, how about the theoretical concerns about female fertility, they’ve been brought up WRT to vaccines but on the surface would also apply to natural infections, and the empirical concerns about male fertility?

    • Replies: @Mike Tre
  75. @That Would Be Telling

    Everything you say in that sentence is wrong except for production and suspension. You should learn something about the previous generations of “active” vaccines using live viruses.

    In fact these vaccines do not use live viruses, inactivated viruses or parts of viruses. They do use manufactured strands of mRNA created to produce copies of SARS-COV-2 spikes when processed by ribosomes within the cells of those who are vaccinated. So everything I said in that sentence is correct.

    I’m not going to waste further time dealing with the rather large quantity of additional misinformation in your post. I have better things to do with my time.

  76. @Bartleby

    That’s probably more true in the U.S.

    In Israel, they have already vaccinated a majority of individuals in some higher-risk groups, so selection effects are rapidly becoming less important.

  77. @Jus' Sayin'...

    “One common stereotype of Ashkenaz Jews is that they are neurotically obsessed with medical issues. It’s part of Woody Allen’s Jewish humor schtick.”

    As I’ve mentioned before, my guess is that Jews picked that up from gentile Germans, who really are pretty neurotic about health. Woody Allen, for example, while growing up often spoke German at home with his relatives.

    • Replies: @Lot
  78. J.Ross says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Unless of course it is simultaneously true that (a) the disease is real (and in fact the vaccine is real, and so are the non-vaccine medications, and, you know what, even some of the deaths are real), and also (b) the lockdown was a triumph of elite hostility and political expediency. Given the newly redoubled aggressive censorship, how will anyone ever know?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Corvinus
  79. @Bartleby

    Anybody have a breakdown by job type among medical care workers refusing to be vaccinated ?

    There’s a pretty obvious negative IQ correlation with refusing vaccine, so my guess is that orderlies are more likely to refuse than M.D.s.

    But if the correlation runs the opposite direction, then I would definitely be concerned.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Anon
    , @Mike Tre
  80. J.Ross says:
    @Anon7

    Third parties are effectively not allowed any more than is evidence of election fraud or mainstream medical criticism of the lockdown or discussion of black crime. Republican party wins by default by being allowed to exist. Trump playing a rigged game is a perfect sequel to Trump using Twitter and FaceBook.

    • Replies: @Anon7
    , @Reg Cæsar
  81. @Steve Sailer

    Wow, this eminently sensible post earned two “TROLL”s and a “LOL.” I know this site is crawling with thoroughgoing whackos, but I thought they generally stayed away (or are kept away) from Steve’s posts.

  82. @Jack D

    It’s so frustrating to happen upon an Sailer thread after some absence only to find that anti-white Jew-firster JackD is one of the few voices of reason. Sometimes you just gotta lol.

    • Replies: @Dissident
  83. Lot says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Of course they’ll drop. Why would the Israelis have a greatly different result from the Pfizer trial?

    • Agree: lavoisier
  84. anon[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    This whole “medical care workers refusing” notion is a classic Citation Required idea.

    I have reason to believe that at least some organizations are very close to making it a term of employment. Sure, ICU nurses are in short supply, but would a big city hospital admin really find it ok for some of them to refuse vaccination? Or would there be an immediate opening in ICU that would be filled with a traveling nurse in a matter of days?

    Anyone claiming that nurses, doctors, EMT’s are refusing vaccine needs to bring facts or go home.

  85. Lot says:
    @Steve Sailer

    “they are neurotically obsessed with medical issues”

  86. Mike Tre says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    You are nothing but a liar. You need a thousand words to try to dismiss a 99.97 survivability rate, a rate that is skewed by thousands of deaths falsely attributed to the beer flu as it is.

    Comorbidity is over 90%. Average age of death is over 70 years. People under 20 are virtually invulnerable to this weak ass virus that you call the most significant since 1918? Is your last name Sackler, or what?

    We know Sailer sees himself as frail and is afraid to die, so at least his panic is justifiable. What is yours and Jack F’s motivation to deliberately and disingenuously overstate the danger of this virus? Why do you advocate for and celebrate the further removal of individual liberties from regular people by a hostel ruling class? Jack F is part of, or wants to part of, that class, so whats your excuse?

    Don’t say the truth. You wouldn’t know the Truth if it was a middle aged black man making unfunny qips in the Unz comments.

    • LOL: Stan d Mute
    • Replies: @HA
  87. @J.Ross

    That’s why I’ve been focused on the vaccine: let’s get this whole thing over and done with and stop going around and around.

  88. J.Ross says:
    @Steve Sailer

    So will you disobey when they renew the lockdown?

  89. Anon[347] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Didier Raoult has a very wait-and-see attitude about the vaccine given —his words— he has seen “no studies, just propaganda”. In particular about long-term efficacity of any based on one genome, given he’s been sequencing Covid19 since the beginning, and it mutates much more than other coronavirus.

    • Replies: @epebble
  90. Dissident says:
    @silviosilver

    anti-white Jew-firster JackD

    Even if that were a fair and accurate characterization of Mr. D*, would its inverse not apply to you? (Not to suggest that you would be alone, or even among the worst offenders here, in that regard. But conspicuous enough in your own right nonetheless…)

    Sometimes you just gotta lol.

    Thanks for providing additional evidence that when it comes to lacking self-awareness, Jews aren’t the only ones who are challenged…

    *Although I have a number of not-inconsiderable differences with Mr. D, the “anti-white” part of your characterization at least, would (to the best of my recalled familiarity with his posting history here) seem at best to be wild, reckless hyperbole.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  91. Art Deco says:

    West Virginia is vaccinating 12,000 people a day. If it keeps this up, it should have it’s vulnerable population fully vaccinated by mid-March. Virginia gives priority to ‘essential workers’ and is vaccinating about 5,500 people a day. It should have it’s vulnerable population fully vaccinated in about 3 years.

  92. Anon[347] • Disclaimer says:
    @dearieme

    Thank you kindly. They also cited a Pfizer document entitled “Meeting of the Advisory Committee for Vaccines and Biological Products” (my translation from the French language).

    In case it’s useful, a site with info and links to published studies on substances used as Covid treatments: https://c19study.com/

  93. @That Would Be Telling

    Exposing unvaccinated people to this lethal virus just to satisfy your and other’s demands is stark raving mad,

    I dunno about that. I’ve always thought that we should do double blind trials with prisoners, in exchange for commuting part or all of their sentence. You do it after Phase 2. Everybody gets infected, one half get the vaccine, the other half the placebo. If you did this across a number of prisons, you might be able to stratify the sample sufficiently, too.

    It’s the ideal place to do it. You could keep participants in solitary, locked down. The minute someone gets sick, the medical team descends.

    It’s the perfect science experiment, complete control of the data, properly falsifiable, and you get results fast.

    Ethically troubling? Maybe, but if you tell the guy in for 8-15 for armed robbery, “Sign up, and you’ll get 2 off your sentence if you’re placebo, and 5 if you get the bug,” I bet they would line up. I bet some would say as they line up to get stabbed, “Gimme the bug, doc, gimme the bug!!”

  94. HA says:
    @peterike

    “The ratio [of complications] is about [ 30 times worse when comparing a completely routine flu vaccine that most people who take it have been taking for years and a vaccine for a novel and much deadlier virus].”

    Another meme straight out of the anti-vaxxer playbook. Given the abysmal track record of the just-a-flu-bros throughout COVID’s advance, I guess they can’t afford to be too particular. But as I noted a few days ago, one anti-vaxxer who frequently posts his theories here once warned me that children who take flu vaccinations are several times more likely to be hospitalized with the flu. Real scary, huh? He even had a paper to cite saying exactly that. And sure enough, up until a much larger study overturned those results (he conveniently overlooked or forgot to mention that), this was indeed the best that science had to offer.

    But even then, after some admitted head-scratching, the explanation given was that pediatricians whose young patients had asthma or other chronic lung issues simply twisted their parents arms until they were given the vaccine, whereas flu vaccines are not otherwise administered to children so much. So the fact that an asthmatic child might be three times more likely to wind up in the hospital after taking the flu vaccine is still considerably better odds than they would have without it. (Again, the subsequent larger study vindicated that explanation.)

    That needs to be kept in mind here as well, and maybe the weird fact that the CDC went and publicized these dark and disturbing results for Alex Berenson to post is an indication that they’re not as dark and disturbing as some want to make them out to be.

    [MORE]

    Again, to the extent that a large portion of the people receiving an injection of completely novel vaccine bits suffer more complications than people who routinely get the flu vaccine year after year isn’t particularly a shocker, especially if the people who are among the first in line to be given the vaccine are those whose COVID outlook is deadlier than most. But somehow your post forgets to mention that as well. Again, straight out of the anti-vaxxer playbook.

    I distrust and fear the weasels of Big Pharma as much as anyone, but if the anti-vaxxers are allowed to lead the opposition, then it’s no surprise the weasels just keeps getting richer. If anything, they might at some point slip a few coins to the loonier anti-vaxxers now and then as part of their PR budget.

  95. epebble says:
    @Anon

    it mutates much more than other coronavirus.

    Do you have a reference for this? Thanks.

    • Replies: @Anon
  96. HA says:
    @Mike Tre

    “You wouldn’t know the Truth if it was a middle aged black man making unfunny qips in the Unz comments.”

    Again, the person preaching to you about truth is the same who told us that being told to strap on a mask in response to COVID was “the greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people”.

    In other words, forget about Typhoid Mary, forget the Tuskegee syphilis trials, forget MK Ultra, forget the armed guards that Washington sent to enforce smallpox quarantines. For that matter, forget the decades of TSA pat-downs in the wake of 9/11, centuries of forced military conscription, the income tax, Prohibition, WWII internment camps, Ruby Ridge, and whatever other governmental overreach you could cite if you had the hours needed to run through the full list. No, the hostile looks that Mike Tre had to endure when he refused to strap on a mask was worse than all of that.

    That is apparently what passes for truth among the just-a-flu types who want to blame everyone else for acting like a bunch of entitled and fragile drama-queens.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    , @Mike Tre
  97. anon[198] • Disclaimer says:

    If it all goes to shit and israelis start popping their clogs from the vacc , the high pitched whining coming from tel-aviv will cause dogs to have nervous breakdowns.
    And I reckon they didn’t pay retail for it either.

  98. Anon7 says:
    @J.Ross

    Third parties aren’t allowed anymore. Right.

    But what if the 75 million people who voted for Trump are given a choice, and 40 million want to go with Trump’s party? Who’s the unneeded third party now?

    Don’t forget that 22 million people watched The Apprentice before he was the President. The Internet is still an open medium. He’s a creative guy. Let’s see what happens, especially when the Democrats really hit their stride this summer, and the hapless traditional Republicans are wearing dunce caps and hair shirts.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  99. AKAHorace says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    How’s that work, Horace? People are wearing these, and the small business economy* is still shut down. I thought the point of the face diapers was to “flatten the curve” for a couple of weeks, back in April or something. The problem has not been the disease itself but the ridiculous hysteria that was ginned up and has been pushed for nearly a year now, by government and big media.

    It’s not about judgement in China. It’s about orders, and its about a tangled disastrous mess of information. People don’t trust what they read on wechat about it. We don’t know, and they likely don’t know, how many people died in Wuhan from the COVID. They’ve instituted an Orwellian system of health scoring, which fits in nicely with the rest of the Orwellian stuff going on, that the COVID was a very convenient excuse for.

    I won’t deny that mistakes have been made in dealing with Corona. Lockdowns were overdone, there was incredible hypocracy in allowing BLM demonstrations after shutting down funerals and church services. The benefits of masking up was underplayed, partly because there was an attitude that the west knows best and that we had nothing to learn from Asia. However

    Masks seem to work. Asian countries that have used them have had far fewer problems with the virus than the rest of the world. Most countries are taking Coronavirus seriously. Any conspiracy that involves massively overplaying the dangers of the virus would have to include a lot of people who have no reason to collaborate with each other.

    If the alt right is identified with the view that masks are a waste of time and that Coronavirus is a hoax and both are proved to be wrong (as seems likely) how seriously will most people take the alt right after this ?

  100. @AKAHorace

    Vaccines are an anti-Semitic conspiracy to sterilize Israelis.

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    , @glib
    , @Reg Cæsar
  101. AKAHorace says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Vaccines are an anti-Semitic conspiracy to sterilize Israelis.

    Well I am glad that you can laugh about it Sailer.

    all the best.

  102. anon[231] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Dude, dude, dude…it’s not iSteve’s fault that any of this stuff has happened. Taking your anger out on him doesn’t change anything.

    Where were you on Dec. 12, 2020? Probably not on a music boat on the edge of the Black Sea…but you can enjoy Korolova’s set anyway. Divert yourself. Chill.

  103. Mr. Anon says:
    @Jack D

    It does and not taking the proper measures against Covid increases the odds that you will get Covid.

    Something like 40% of people get infected with Corona virus and never get COVID. Another 40% just experience it has a something like the flu, ranging from not-that-bad to bad-but-not-serious.

    My point still stands – the media is purposefully making the disease seem far more deadly than it is.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  104. glib says:
    @Steve Sailer

    I will listen to this argument if someone proves to me that the stuff sent to Israel is the same stuff sent to Peoria, now and in the near future (since there will be many vaccines).

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  105. J.Ross says:
    @Anon7

    Aaaaaand it’s declared a terrorist organization, thank you for playing.
    —-
    “Anymore”? The de facto ban on third parties far predates the present madness.

  106. @glib

    So the Israelis are getting a supersecret vaccine from Pfizer that’s better than the public vaccine Pfizer makes?

    Sure …

    • Replies: @glib
  107. @BenKenobi

    Is the doctor in Mike Judge’s “Idiocracy” the same actor as the lawyer in Judge’s “Silicon Valley,” Pied Piper’s super cocky and cheerful outside counsel whose main job is to explain that each one of their legal problems will require hiring a specialist lawyer for $200k?

  108. glib says:
    @Steve Sailer

    through deception they make war. It has always been so.

  109. BenKenobi says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Hi Steve, thanks for the response. Especially after the recent contention.

    Justin Long was the doctor in the Idiocracy clip.

    I never watched Silicon Valley but I think the actor to which you are referring is Ben Feldman.

  110. @AKAHorace

    The benefits of masking up was underplayed, partly because there was an attitude that the west knows best and that we had nothing to learn from Asia.

    I’ve never heard that attitude, and I’ve never seen that attitude. Making fun of the Japanese in ’09 during that epidemic for their wearing masks throughout the Detroit airport – yes, been there, done that.

    Masks seem to work. Asian countries that have used them have had far fewer problems with the virus than the rest of the world.

    Horace, WE (not including me) have been wearing masks all over the place since the end of the summer, maybe the middle. We are in one of the more low population density countries compared to all of those* Yet the big CASES!, CASES!, CASES! push came in the fall, conveniently after the Summer of George was winding down … and may tail off .. hmmm …. right around inauguration day …

    Any conspiracy that involves massively overplaying the dangers of the virus would have to include a lot of people who have no reason to collaborate with each other.

    I never said it was a conspiracy theory, Horace. Do you think the media have to write memos back and forth to tell each other to get on TV a lot and scare the hell out of people? It comes naturally. It’s what they do. Do you think Governors don’t enjoy wielding emergency powers (somehow past their 1 month normal authority by 10X) to shut down this, re-open that, etc, and do you think many of them want to be the bogeyman on TV for being the least concerned? (Think of the children!)

    If the alt right is identified with the view that masks are a waste of time and that Coronavirus is a hoax and both are proved to be wrong (as seems likely) how seriously will most people take the alt right after this ?

    This is not just an alt-right thing. I don’t know where you get that. This is just one small area of the web, with lots of alt-right people and with the usual divide between panickers and non-panickers. I am both, but then again I don’t give a rat’s ass about the vaccine … because I am not a panicker. I’m glad there’s one out there for those who are, but I sure don’t think even a well-proven (in the field) vaccine is going to bring this country back to sanity, with no more LOCKDOWN talk again and everyone just ditching those face diapers, and to where I can short my floor sticker sector stock holdings.

    There are anti-vax people and anti-panic people on all sides of the political spectrum though both tend to lean toward the conservatives, as they just do a little more thinking. I am the latter, but not the former. That doesn’t mean I plan on getting vaccinated either any time soon. The nurse in our family is holding out until she is forced to, to keep her job. Right now, BTW, they are told they can work even if tested positive, so long as they don’t show symptoms. What’s that tell you?

    .

    * Excluding NY City, which, guess what? It was a hot spot for a while, masks or no masks – I chalk that up to high-density living AND lots of travel back and forth to everywhere including, guess where? The place where this virus started, as lots of them seem to, China.

  111. @Steve Sailer

    Don’t know (watched a number of episodes of Silicon Valley some years ago but can’t remember), but that scene is one of my favorite movie scenes of ALL time. It’s both the ignorant smile and his way of talking. Whoever he is, he made the best scene in one of my favorite movies ever. (Funny cause it’s true!)

    “My ex-wife … ‘tarded … she’s a pilot now.” Hahahaa!

  112. U. Ranus says:
    @peterike

    A thing your link seems to miss (I haven’t read it all yet) is the existence of scenarios like “Lock Step” and “Event 201”: The West’s endoparasites were considering these ideas well before 2020.

  113. One way to tell if the Israeli vaccination campaign is working as planned is not from the gross numbers, but from their demographics.

    Jesus! We need a Sailer to ridicule this Sailer about his hysteria. Get some testosterone shots already Steve, not even my wife believes that bullshit anymore. Here’s your sentence corrected:

    One way to tell if the Israeli vaccination campaign is working as planned is not from the gross numbers, but from their demographics the establishment need to control their minions and signal their DIE virtues.

    But you just go on believing that all previous forms of death have been suspended and COVID is now the sole cause of death and don’t forget to wear your face diaper.

  114. @Achmed E. Newman

    Hunkering down? Scary? More scary? You’ve got to see this for what it is, Steve.

    Option 1. Steve’s wife guest posts about CoronaCaust
    Option 2. Steve’s retirement is sensibly invested in Big Pharma
    Option 3. Steve’s wife emasculated him as immunization against testicular cancer (as a fellow lymphoma survivor this idea hasn’t crossed my mind, but Steve’s the Big Thinker here).

    • Replies: @AnonAnon
  115. @Mr. Anon

    I saw one story yesterday about a man who died of COVID after getting it from his wife (how they establish that they don’t say)

    Didn’t wear a mask during sex.

    • LOL: Stan d Mute
  116. @Steve Sailer

    Please keep us posted on the Israeli progress and results.

  117. @paranoid goy

    Reply to Jack and TWBT: Unethical? I stand corrected, I am so stupid. Now, if’n da massahs will show me where they have publically condemned, say, Bill Gates when he caused an epidemic of microcephalus with his “cocktail of 7 vaccines” to thousands of women in Brazil. Or when polio suddenly flared up wherever he handed out vaccines. Or how about maybe you two published a learned study on genetically modified food and their long-term effects on billions of consumers exposed without warning? How about your ethical diatribe against Monsanto and their viscious hormone disruptors now prevailent across the food chain?
    Hey, maybe I can learn more about ethics from you guys if you explain the medical ethics of Tavistock, CFR and yo mama feeding hormones to eight-year-olds to prepare them for “gender assignment surgery”?
    Or maybe you wanna start me on some light reading on medical ethics, like, “why are more than a million babies younger than twelve months on psychiatric medication, in the US alone?”
    Yeah, I stand corrected, medical ethics….
    …and show me a frigging micrograph of this covid1984 virus, independently verified and replicated. At least isolated so we can determine the genetic sequence of a LIVE virus, not a computer model. Proper evidence from an honest scientist, instead of an ethical one, please!

  118. I gather than in Israel anyone* who wants a jab can turn up at the vaccination centres and take a chance on their being some leftover vaccine (which in the US seems to go in the bin).

    * not sure this applies to West Bank Arabs

  119. Mike Tre says:
    @HA

    Projection. And I stand by that statement. (and flattered that it has been seared into the recesses of your mind, forever!) 330 million people forced to comply with mask and lock down mandates. Nothing else compares.

    I suggest you have your estrogen checked. After you unplug your laptop and never turn it on again.

    • Replies: @HA
  120. @Steve Sailer

    let’s get this whole thing over and done with

    But the ride never ends…

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  121. @Hippopotamusdrome

    This too shall pass.

    It will pass faster if we’re not knuckleheads.

    • LOL: Stan d Mute
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  122. Polemos says:
    @HA

    Again, to the extent that a large portion of the people receiving an injection of completely novel vaccine bits suffer more complications than people who routinely get the flu vaccine year after year isn’t particularly a shocker, especially if the people who are among the first in line to be given the vaccine are those whose COVID outlook is deadlier than most.

    So the disagreement isn’t about the fact that the novel vaccines have more complications with larger groups of people, but that we shouldn’t be surprised by the complications?

    The special emphasis reads as though your point is that, statistically speaking, they were going to be dying anyway. I am unsure how that differs from the COVID-19 skeptics who point out deaths are among those who were going to die soon (the talk of “pulling forward” deaths that would have been spread out over the term), as you’re both saying the numbers look higher but due to selective scope.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @HA
    , @Jack D
  123. @Dissident

    Even if that were a fair and accurate characterization of Mr. D*, would its inverse not apply to you?

    Jack’s position is that white gentiles are too inferior for Jewish royalty to mix with, but that white gentiles must allow Jews to live among them and rule over them anyway. I don’t see how my own position amounts to an inverse of that at all.

    seem at best to be wild, reckless hyperbole.

    He’s far from the worst offender, to be sure. My feeling, though, is that if push came to shove, he’d side with the forces of anti-whitism. Anything else is too risky, see.

    • Replies: @Dissident
  124. @Steve Sailer

    This too shall pass.

    The COVID-19 as a deadly virus will pass. The new “normal” will not. Think back 19 1/3 years.

  125. @Polemos

    The U.S. is up to about 9 million vaccinations now. The country is finally starting to make some numbers.

    • Replies: @epebble
  126. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Exposing unvaccinated people to this lethal virus just to satisfy your and other’s demands is stark raving mad,

    I dunno about that. I’ve always thought that we should do double blind trials with prisoners, in exchange for commuting part or all of their sentence.

    We (the USA) used to do this sort of thing, but we’re too … well, actually, our ruling trash changed to be on the side of the criminals, it’s a part of their increasingly blatant anarcho-tyranny.

    So while that’s a great idea in theory, and perhaps can be done by other countries, certainly the PRC but they’re not exactly open with most things having to do with COVID-19 (was just reading something about Sinovac trying to keep the results of their Phase III Brazilian CornaVac trial a secret, with rumor level reports its efficacy is less than 60%, which would not be surprising if its inactivated virus is a wild type vs. having a stabilized spike protein), it’s not an option for the US, and probably a lot of the West. At most, the West is mooting or doing challenge trials to people who’ve gotten vaccinated, and I assume have serological (blood) tests that show they’re not in the 5% or 38% for AZ/Oxford for whom the vaccine didn’t work.

  127. @HA

    “The ratio [of complications] is about [30 times worse when comparing a completely routine flu vaccine that most people who take it have been taking for years and a vaccine for a novel and much deadlier virus].”

    Another meme straight out of the anti-vaxxer playbook….

    So it would seem. Assuming its even true, it ignores that the flu vaccine is “passive,” protein plus adjuvant, while the so far licensed vaccines (not counting Sinovac’s CoronaVac and the PRC and Brazil, maybe) are “active,” they hijack cells to make viral proteins, which is the best controlled simulation of a real infection you can get. So we expect more adverse reactions, in return for getting better protection, excluding the AZ/Oxford clown show. See also how Sanofi/GSK’s protein plus adjuvant failed with the elderly, they’re having to restart from scratch in a month or three.

    The single biggest failing of anti-vaxxers is any sense of risk/benefit tradeoffs. Generally by denying benefits by downplaying the results, especially morbidity, of whatever pathogen is being targeted.

  128. anon[166] • Disclaimer says:
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    trials with prisoners, in exchange for commuting part or all of their sentence.

    Hell yes. It’s like the Dirty Dozen never happened. We would have never won WW 2 without those guys.

  129. HA says:
    @Mike Tre

    “…I stand by that statement. “

    And it will say all that needs to be said should you ever again present yourself as some grand arbiter of truth around here.

    (and flattered that it has been seared into the recesses of your mind, forever!)

    Like I often say, I try to remember my comments (though I’m starting to see why people like you don’t), even if that means remembering some spectacularly idiotic (though otherwise quite forgettable) drivel that compelled them. It’s a blessing and a curse, all in all. And yes, in that sense something as shallow and self-centered as your statement was indeed seared into my mind, but the same goes for any other train wreck I might come across, metaphorical or actual, and whichever other guy who decides to take a header off the bridge and into the deep. If you want to be proud of that, you might at least get some consolation points for your consistency.

  130. anon[166] • Disclaimer says:

    OK….I was expecting the “Biden Miracle” to continue from December into January. But cases increased and the vaccine delivery was slowed and no such luck.

    And hey, the “scamdemic” crowd gotta vent and all. But holy shit. China is locking down again. And Japan, probably the country that handled it the best is having problems. But this is not a US thing, it’s global. The US MSM is capable of anything, but how did they get the commies and Japs onboard. Plus Brazil and on and on.

    And the anti-vaxxers? Too crunchy for my taste. I like GMO, and go out of my way to consume franken-grains. And hell yes to plastic. Without carbon, life itself would be impossible. Red states, red meat and oil. And post vaccination, I will have another excuse for my ADD. Risking another increment on the spectrum.

    The anti vaxxers are just another varient of snowflakes. They could be called pussies, but that would be wrong.

  131. HA says:
    @Polemos

    “So the disagreement isn’t about the fact that the novel vaccines have more complications with larger groups of people, but that we shouldn’t be surprised by the complications?”

    I’m not saying the differential is or isn’t surprising — that’s for more expert analysis than I (and I’d wager Alex Berenson) can offer. I do suspect that 1) all other things being equal, getting a vaccine for a novel virus the first time (as opposed to the annual booster that the vast majority of flu vaccine injections happen to be, including the 2019 case that Berenson cited) is more likely to cause an adverse reaction.

    I also suspect that 2) those who are among the first in line for the COVID vaccine are more likely to be at higher risk from the disease and therefore will be more likely to suffer adverse reactions from those vaccine protein spikes (real or facsimile). A fairer comparison would therefore be to consider a group of people who were never injected with the flu vaccine and yet are at high risk from the disease, or more realistically, wait until everyone (or at least a more representative sample) of people are injected with the COVID vaccine to make any comparison.

    Moreover it is the case that 3) COVID is considerably worse than the flu (pace the loons who think that Israel is getting an extra-premium batch of the vaccine, maybe shipped in the same box as that government-lab-grade thermite they buy, the kind that REALLY brought down the Twin Towers). Bits of COVID vaccines (again, whether real or facsimile) would, other things being equal, therefore be more likely to produce an adverse reaction.

    I, again, would not have the expertise to speak on the passive/active differentials between flu/COVID vaccines that ThatWouldBeTelling mentioned, or any other such higher-level caveats (I am reminded here of the idiot who claimed that since we weren’t able to find a vaccine for HIV, despite enormous effort, we would never, ever, ever be able to find a vaccine for a coronavirus, QED), but differences like that actually do matter, so let’s add that as a final 4).

    Put all that together, and THEN tell me that a 30-1 differential is troubling or unexpected. Don’t just toss me up some dark and sinister factoids the way anti-vaxxers do. By now, I’m way beyond being impressed by that routine.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  132. @HA

    Like I often say, I try to remember my comments

    You poor dear, my mother in law is having the exact same problem along with the other lovely ladies in diapers (both top & bottom!).

    Buck up, senile memory loss doesn’t last forever!!!

  133. epebble says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    She may belong to Self-Realization Fellowship. Yogananda was its founder/saint.

  134. Jack D says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Even by your math, that leaves 20%, or 1 in 5, who will experience Covid as a serious illness (or in some cases, death). And that 20% is not evenly distributed, but concentrated among older people and people with comorbidities, so at some age and/or level of comorbidity your chances of becoming seriously ill or dying from Covid are more than 50/50.

    I agree with you thought that the media has (in many cases for the usual Leftist reasons) purposely NOT made clear who is most at risk from Covid. For example, the fact that people under 30 have almost ZERO statistical risk of dying from Covid. In fact they have done the opposite and highlighted the handful of rare cases where someone younger has died. While such deaths are tragic to the families of those involved, they are not at all representative of the average Covid victim. The AVERAGE victim of Covid is 80 years old and in many cases is suffering from dementia and living in a nursing home, but such individuals are not sufficiently photogenic or interesting or useful for propaganda purposes to be made into Covid posterboys.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
  135. @HA

    Moreover it is the case that 3) COVID is considerably worse than the flu … would, other things being equal, therefore be more likely to produce an adverse reaction.

    That’s a very interesting idea. But until we know why COVID is so much worse for a fair fraction of the people it infects, all the weird things it does that the flu doesn’t, for example causes clots of every size, or invading and damaging your junk, we’re going to have to put serious investigation of this idea WRT to vaccines on the shelf, while noting it sound plausible.

    There’s no a priori reason to believe that using a single method to create vaccines against different viral pathogens will always result in their having the same side effect profiles. In all cases, theory must bow to results in the real world.

    I, again, would not have the expertise to speak on the passive/active differentials between flu/COVID vaccines that ThatWouldBeTelling mentioned … but differences like that actually do matter, so let’s add that as a final 4).

    That’s the simplifying analysis you need to make; you don’t need to know how each type of vaccine shouts to the adaptive immune system “I’m alien stuff, zap me and learn how to do it fast in the future!!!”, you just need to know they use significantly different methods and therefore we would again be surprised if they had exactly the same side effect profiles.

    One other thing to note? A lot of these things we’re calling “side effects” aren’t really exactly that. We are after all poking our immune systems with a stick, so if it says, “Oh joy, another infection. Let’s make it hot for the enemy.” and the vaccine causes a fever, while I’d say that’s a side effect unless it helps the adaptive immune system to do its thing better or faster, it’s not like say a drug who’s actions are unrelated to your liver killing the latter organ because some people have issues metabolizing it. Swollen lymph nodes (lymphadenopathy)? Sounds like the vaccine did a very good job indeed in simulating an infection. An undesired adverse effect? For sure, but, perhaps not a big deal.

    Whereas while looking up that in the Pfizer/BioNTech briefing for the FDA advisory committee, I noticed a Serious Adverse Event of appendicitis; collect a group of 43,000 people and watch them for some months and you’ll have bad stuff happen unrelated to a vaccination or placebo:

    … None of the [appendicitis] cases were assessed as related to study intervention by the investigators.

    With 8496.05 years of participant follow up as of 16 November 2020, an observation of 12 appendicitis cases across both treatment groups is not greater than expected based on background rates estimated in a US Electronic Health Records database. The ratio of the observed number of cases compared with the expected number of cases was 1.19 (95% [confidence interval (CI)] 0.62 -2.09) overall, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.39 – 2.02) within the 18-54 age category and 1.73 (95% CI, 0.56 -4.03) in the 55 and older age category.

    • Replies: @HA
  136. @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    If you’re willing to travel, Salem OR is giving them away to all comers at its fairgrounds.

    We know Oregon is soft on riots, but public masturbation too? They’ll fall into the sea before long.

  137. peterike says:
    @HA

    Like I often say, I try to remember my comments (though I’m starting to see why people like you don’t), even if that means remembering some spectacularly idiotic (though otherwise quite forgettable) drivel that compelled them. It’s a blessing and a curse, all in all. And yes, in that sense something as shallow and self-centered as your statement was indeed seared into my mind, but the same goes for any other train wreck I might come across, metaphorical or actual, and whichever other guy who decides to take a header off the bridge and into the deep. If you want to be proud of that, you might at least get some consolation points for your consistency.

    Note the highlighted sections. Your standard MO is hyper-emotional, finger-wagging, insulting, self-righteous belligerence towards other posters. But you’re not the hysteric, amirite?

    I can’t decide if you’re a woman or a very soy-addled nu-male. But I’m pretty sure HA stands for “Humungous Asshole.”

    • Replies: @HA
  138. @Steve Sailer

    Vaccines are an anti-Semitic conspiracy to sterilize Israelis.

    Just as the polio and other vaccines are a Jewish conspiracy to sterilize Arabs. Thus our embargo on Iraq actually worked to their advantage.

  139. Jack D says:
    @Polemos

    I’m not sure what your point is. Since 100% of people die eventually, in a manner of speaking all that Covid (that any disease) does is “pull forward” the date of our death – the question is by how much. There are a number of ways of calculating this but the bottom line is that Covid does not kill ONLY those whose sell-by date is fast approaching (nor should we be dismissive of people who might only have say 5 years left – how much would you pay not to have 5 years trimmed off of your life?). Maybe half of Covid victims fit that profile but the other half includes people who may have some comorbidities such as obesity and diabetes but who, thanks to modern medicine, could have lived for decades more in the absence of the ‘rona.

    Regarding the complications of the vaccines, as a new and rapidly developed vaccine, we certainly can’t rule out that the RATE of complications will possibly be higher than for vaccines with a long track record. However, in terms of the TYPE of complications, I don’t think that there are going to be any surprises. These vaccines have now been tested in animal models and given to millions of individuals and people are not keeling over dead from it or getting cancer or producing children with no arms or anything like the parade of horrors that anti-vaxxers conjure from their imagination. It’s fairly common for people who receive the to feel a little under the weather for a few days. A tiny # of people, most of whom have a known tendency to experience severe allergic reactions, experience such reactions. And that’s it.

  140. HA says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    “In all cases, theory must bow to results in the real world.”

    Yeah, you make a fair point. I should have simply said that a scenario in which a more serious disease (relative to flu or anything else) results in a vaccine that causes more adverse reactions (especially the very first time it is administered) is at the least plausible and left it at that. It would be presumptuous of me to offer up “more serious diseases imply more serious vaccine reactions, ceteris paribus” as some kind of general rule of what should happen (as opposed to the weaker claim that we shouldn’t be particularly surprised or alarmed when that is what transpires).

    After all, in some cases, very mild diseases (e.g. cowpox) can provide immunity to very serious ones (e.g. smallpox), and as you say, without understanding the specifics of what makes both the disease and the reactions to the vaccine problematic, all sorts of exceptions can occur, but even with this less sloppier wording, the original 30-1 comparison is still a specious one.

  141. Mike Tre says:
    @HA

    “ And it will say all that needs to be said should you ever again present yourself as some grand arbiter of truth around here.”

    Isn’t that cute! Fortunately, you don’t get to speak on behalf of the group here, or truth for that matter.

    Further, the fact that you might disagree with someone on this topic should lead you to dismiss anything they have to say about any other topic speaks directly to your rigid ignorance and childish butthurt.

    Put your silly little mask on and remember to social distance, so you can virtue signal to yourself how you’re a “good person.”

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    , @HA
  142. @Mike Tre

    Brother man, now that Mr. Biden looks like he will get inaugurated, we need to shift gears, do a full CPUSA after the Austrian Corporal turned his armies on the Soviet Union.

    We need to embrace Covanxiety. We need to tell our liberal friends that Mr. Biden isn’t doing near enough.

    I trolled an ultra-liberal lawyer friend, and he took me quite seriously.

  143. HA says:
    @Mike Tre

    “Isn’t that cute! Fortunately, you don’t get to speak on behalf of the group here, or truth for that matter.”

    Your own comments do a far better job of discrediting you than I ever could. I just happen to be able to remember the ones that were so spectacularly dumb I actually took the bother of replying to them (though the point seems lost on Stan D Mute — I wonder if his mother in law’s memory loss is worse than his own shoddy reading comprehension?)

    And you think I’m the one who’s hurting over that? Yeah, right. Talk about projection.

    • Replies: @Mike Tre
  144. HA says:
    @peterike

    “But you’re not the hysteric, amirite?”

    Actually, the “seared into my mind” comment you cited as being hyper-emotional was a direct quote from Mike Tre — look it up. He got the ball rolling, I just took it and ran with it.

    And no, I’m not the hysteric. That would actually be the loon who first tried to convince us that lockdowns, as opposed to a novel virus, were what was causing the uptick in deaths, (though despite that even now, some 300K later, still fancies himself a repository of sound COVID policy).

    Who might that be, I wonder?

    And you know, like they say, “viruses are gonna do what viruses are gonna do” so that doing anything about them is futile, really, especially if we assume that we’re never able to come up with a vaccine or cure or anything like that, which seems to be the assumption you were working from. How’d that one work out?

    Now THAT is some bona fide gloom-and-doom talk, so maybe work on unraveling all the issues underlying that before you start wagging your finger at me, pot-kettle.

  145. Mike Tre says:
    @HA

    tl; dr

    You’ve proven yourself to be a waste of time. Mask up, brave soul!

  146. Anon[138] • Disclaimer says:
    @epebble

    On YouTube you can find the IHU Mediterranée channel. On this video, around minute 24, Raoult says “this virus mutates beaucoup” and explains. I know I have heard him say the exact phrase I cited, but I cannot right now find the exact place on video. He and his team have apparently done a lot of genome sequencing.

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    , @epebble
  147. @J.Ross

    Republican party wins by default by being allowed to exist.

    Wisconsin bumped the Greens’ Howie Hawkins and Kanye West off the ballot this year. On trivial technicalities.

    That was not done to help the Republicans!

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  148. Nico says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Nor do we see stories about the person who did every single thing that Anthony Fauci told us to do on the particular day he told us to do it (wear masks, not wear masks, social distance, put the right foot in, whatever) – that person who sanitizes his mail, wears a mask while driving alone in his car, etc., who none-the-less dies of the ‘Rona.

    I have avoided COVID-19 biopics in the interested popular press which doesn’t know what it’s talking about as a general rule, much less with technical topics (on that note: run fast and far away from any source which uses the phrase “the science behind”) but I can in fact remember one such story. The headline read something like, “Healthy teenager who took precautions dies of COVID.” They included a picture of the “healthy teenager” and he happened to be morbidly obese. Given his skin color (black-African) juxtaposed with his residence in North America, as well as his physical shape, it’s likely he was also vitamin-D deficient.

    It’s not an either-or situation. You don’t have to say COVID isn’t serious to acknowledge that the risk is VERY asymmetrical across clear medically delimited categories. With age the reduced VO2max is likely a culprit but the elderly also have more of a chance of a poor lifestyle catching up to them. Indeed, the correlation of hospitalized/fatality cases with what are usually metabolic and/or lifestyle conditions (obesity, diabetes, cardiac trouble, history of smoking) is so high that I am of the opinion that in seeming “fluke” cases (young, healthy, fit) there is a correlative condition (lifestyle or not) which has simply been overlooked.

    As a general rule, people don’t just drop dead for no reason.

    “The girl obviously died of something. If it was natural causes, it’s plausible something was overlooked at autopsy. If it was murder, it’s possible there was a sloppy investigation… The answers are there: you just have to know where to look!”~Dana Scully

    • Replies: @Jack D
  149. Nico says:
    @Jack D

    Covid does not kill ONLY those whose sell-by date is fast approaching (nor should we be dismissive of people who might only have say 5 years left – how much would you pay not to have 5 years trimmed off of your life?). Maybe half of Covid victims fit that profile but the other half includes people who may have some comorbidities such as obesity and diabetes but who, thanks to modern medicine, could have lived for decades more in the absence of the ‘rona.

    Actually, in Britain the average COVID-19 death age seems to be in the early 80s and only some 20-25 percent of victims are normal BMI. On average given prior conditions as well as actuarial average remaining life once you’ve hit 80, I’ve estimated COVID-19 victims lose about seven years of life. (The problem from a policy standpoint is that this loss of life years, while undeniably tragic, does not seem to be weighed against the number of quality-adjusted life years for the rest of the population.)

    The risk of a serious or deadly case of COVID-19 are VERY asymmetrical as a function of age and prior (usually metabolic or lifestyle) conditions, possibly even more so with the latter, and I would argue that prior conditions are simply overlooked in many other victims. Furthermore, the older you get, the greater the chance a latent problem will “jump out” at some point or that a poor life habit will “catch up” to you.

  150. AKAHorace says:
    @Anon

    On YouTube you can find the IHU Mediterranée channel. On this video, around minute 24, Raoult says “this virus mutates beaucoup” and explains. I know I have heard him say the exact phrase I cited, but I cannot right now find the exact place on video. He and his team have apparently done a lot of genome sequencing.

    I think that he says that the new variant has a lot of changes in the genome, normally you see a few changes at a time. This is either because of changes in the repair gene or because it went from humans to another animal, changed there and then came back to humans. He describes it as a completely new disease. I will listen to the whole thing and summarize if there is no translation and anyone here is interested.

    • Replies: @Anon
  151. epebble says:
    @Steve Sailer

    The problem is, at a rate slower than a million a day (which seems to be 3 times more than the capacity of the system at present), it will take a year to vaccinate everyone. By then, the new strains may necessitate new vaccinations. This becomes a treadmill till the mutations end up causing the virus to become a flu-like strain. Unfortunately, this means behavioral containment i.e. masks and social distancing will be with us for a long time.

    Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity

    We are currently faced with the question of how the CoV-2 severity may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. We predict a different outcome for an emergent coronavirus that causes severe disease in children. These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout, while prompting us to evaluate scenarios for continuing vaccination in the endemic phase.

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522.full

  152. @Yngvar

    Just kidding, your soldiers are very welcome to train with us.

    Many Norwegians are conscripts, including the women. Are our Marines canoodling with the locals? Not much else to do up there with only 58 minutes of daylight!

    11:25 AM
    Friday, January 15, 2021 (GMT+1)
    Sunrise in Tromsø, Norway

    12:23 PM
    Friday, January 15, 2021 (GMT+1)
    Sunset in Tromsø, Norway

    But which way is the bug flow?

  153. epebble says:
    @Anon

    Thanks. He is a smart guy. Does he give interviews/presentations in English? At least, someone can subtitle it in English and repost it.

    • Replies: @Anon
  154. @Jack D

    A tiny # of people, most of whom have a known tendency to experience severe allergic reactions, experience such reactions.

    Dr. Messonnier had January 6th newer firm numbers from the CDC, actually it’s data from an early release of a Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report paper that day, “Allergic Reactions Including Anaphylaxis After Receipt of the First Dose of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine — United States, December 14–23, 2020” 21 cases of anaphylaxis out of the first 1.9 million first doses in the first week and a half of vaccinations, she said “17 patients had a documented history of allergies or allergic reactions, including to drugs or medical products, foods and insect stings,” that would cover for example the two healthcare workers in Idaho a random search I made found. And the count of anaphylaxis cases is now up to 29 with both vaccines, but that wasn’t synced up to exactly how many vaccine first doses it corresponded to.

    I would imagine the adverse effect reporting is a lot swifter than the doses administered reporting, the latter as I’ve said before is one of the least important things about our program, except in isolating problems. Where Cuomo’s insane penalties of a 1 million dollar fine and loss of license if you vaccinate someone out of order has resulted in you feared, perfectly good vaccine doses being thrown away. The threat is not idle, Montefiore New Rochelle Hospital is already being investigated for making a mistake.

    There’s also a terrific bottleneck for individuals signing up in New York state, at worst case depending on how many new accounts have to be set up etc., someone may have to make up to 51 steps including uploading (an ID card I think) to create an appointment. Needless to say a lot of not so computer literate folks need help doing this, Cuomo’s last minute throwing away of the existing and perhaps iterated with Operation Warp Speed plans, his control freak and murderous character plus ORANGE MAN BAD continues to take its toll.

    Back to anaphylaxis, there will be new papers to follow, including a first one focused on Moderna’s, I may have mentioned one doctor allergic to shellfish who used one of his own epipens and then went down to his hospitals emergency department. He was only surprised that it was the most intense reaction he’d had since an event when he was eleven. This is of course not good, but it’s a standard thing dispensers of vaccines must be ready for (in the 1970s my pediatrician’s office had a crash box with a small bottle of oxygen etc.), and as Dr. Messonnier backed up by a Dr. Clark says, “it’s going to be really important to have a clinician able to help a patient exercise judgment as opposed to having sort of completely hard and fast rules.”

    People including Biden are now getting their second Pfizer/BioNTech doses, and as you say, the sky is not falling, per the CDC today (well, the update is a bit messed up, says as of December 20th, 2001!), 9,327,138 first doses reported as of 9 am. That includes 951,774 first doses through the Federal Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care Program (CVS and Walgreens roaming the land looking for the elderly and their caregivers to vaccinate). I wonder if that program is operative in New York state, it shouldn’t be according to Cuomo’s rules before a change a day or two ago, maybe.

    • Thanks: Jack D
  155. Corvinus says:
    @J.Ross

    The disease is real and lockdowns were to slow its spread. The “elite hostility” and “political expediency” angle is other than accurate. You really ought to be thanking Mr. Sailer for being relatively reasonable on this topic.

  156. Corvinus says:
    @theMann

    “Are the Israelis getting a completely different vaccine?”

    Confirmed. It’s a Molotov cocktail consisting of anti-White, pro-Cultural Marxism, and pro-Zionism.

  157. J.Ross says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    No, but it was to protect the overall system, of which the old Republicans are a part.

  158. Anon[138] • Disclaimer says:
    @epebble

    In the IHU Mediterranée YouTube channel they do a lot of fast-paced power-point presentations, some graphics are in English. The one about about remdesivir has a timeline in English, and a few other slides also. I haven’t seen any videos in English tho.

  159. Anon[138] • Disclaimer says:
    @AKAHorace

    Correct.

    This is a more recent video than the one above, and he speculates a bit more on the subject.

    Didier Raoult variant anglais

    10:37 poses question whether Italy hotspot in 2020 had to do with mink farms there

    11:20 how did a virus w 14 mutations appear all of a sudden instead of little by little

    Does anyone know if Raoult is jewish, by the way?

  160. Jack D says:
    @Nico

    Indeed, the correlation of hospitalized/fatality cases with what are usually metabolic and/or lifestyle conditions (obesity, diabetes, cardiac trouble, history of smoking) is so high that I am of the opinion that in seeming “fluke” cases (young, healthy, fit) there is a correlative condition (lifestyle or not) which has simply been overlooked.

    Generally speaking that is true but there have been a few case where the victim was truly young and healthy before they got Covid and died anyway. Sometimes cytokine storms are the worst in people with strong immune systems.

    The other thing is that there are LOTS of Americans with metabolic or lifestyle conditions. Maybe more than those who are in perfect health. Despite such conditions, modern medicine often keeps such people going for decades absent covid. So if you say Covid ONLY kills people with those conditions, you’re really not saying much because that leaves maybe 1/2 the population at risk.

    • Replies: @Nico
  161. Jack D says:
    @Anon

    Does anyone know if Raoult is jewish, by the way?

    Highly doubtful. Name is not typically Jewish nor does his family history match. You need to read The Poisoned Mushroom, where Nazis taught little children that one can have a LARGE nose without it being a Jewish nose, the difference being that the Aryan nose is straight. Americans really really stink at Jewsniffing with unz commenters particularly prone to false positives.

    • Replies: @HA
    , @Anon
  162. Kyle says:

    I’m not an anti vaxer, just a realist. If the standard for ending the lockdowns and going back to normal life is that 99% of people must be vaccinated… Then in that case the military must go door to door inoculating everyone. That’s what needs to happen, and somehow I don’t think America has the organizational capacity or political will to accomplish that. I’m thinking it’s probably just going to be lockdowns forever. In my mind the anti vaxers and their opinions are sort of irrelevant. At least right now we can focus on vaccinating all residents & workers in old people’s homes, that cuts 2 million deaths down to 1 million. Beyond that I’m not sure what the hell governor Whitmer’s plan is, I’m trying to figure out where when & how to get vaccinated. At this point I’m not aware of what her plan is but that may be due to my own ignorance. ~ 2 weeks ago my friend who works in a hospital got his vaccination, and gave me a heads up that cvs & Walgreens would have vaccinations available “in a few weeks.” Don’t call me an anti vaxer, I only have 1 question regarding the vaccine. How much does it cost?

  163. Jack D says:
    @theMann

    in about a year, when sterilizations, deaths, and grotesque long term reactions multiply throughout the target populations.

    How do you know it’s a year and not 5 years or 10 or 20? I suggest YOU wait AT LEAST a decade so that you can be really really sure that the vaccine won’t make your pee-pee fall off or something (you forgot to list that possible side effect – it MIGHT happen).

  164. @theMann

    They should put the vaccine on a sugar cube for people who are afraid of needles.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  165. Rahan says:
    @Mike Tre

    “Cadet, who let you into my office?”

  166. TRM says:

    Important update from Ivor Cummins which mentions Israel & USA but focuses mainly on Europe.

  167. TRM says:
    @Kyle

    Why not use Ivermectin as a prophylactic? Vastly more effective and much safer.

    Dr. Pierre Kory (FLCCC Alliance, https://covid19criticalcare.com/ ) and his Senate testimony from Dec 8, 2020.

  168. This is taken from The Daily Mail.

    The chart seems to indicate that the death rate has essentially skyrocket in Great Britain, at right about the time the vaccines began being administered in Merry Olde England, almost to the very day. Seems potentially relevant somehow.

  169. AnonAnon says:
    @Stan d Mute

    Option 4. Steve is paid to shill the fear.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • LOL: Dissident
  170. Dissident says:
    @silviosilver

    I don’t see how my own position amounts to an inverse of that at all.

    My main point, in a nutshell, was that even if Jack D has exhibited hostility or contempt toward goyim[1], it would be no worse (either in quality or in quantity) than the hostility toward (and even paranoia about) Jews that I have seen exhibited in any number of your comments.[2] (And therefore, even if there would be validity to your characterization of Mr. D– and I do not claim there is none at all— it is rather rich to hear it from you.)

    Jack’s position is that white gentiles are too inferior for Jewish royalty to mix with, but that white gentiles must allow Jews to live among them and rule over them anyway.

    While I would not argue that there is absolutely no basis for such a characterization, it would nonetheless be at most — to the extent of my familiarity with Jack D’s commenting behavior here– a pretty wild exaggeration.

    [MORE]

    There have been comments of Mr. D’s that have made me uncomfortable, including some in which it seemed to me that he exhibited contempt for non-Jews. (Though in at least some of those cases, the possibility that I may have taken what was meant as mere sarcasm or facetious jesting too seriously does not seem beyond the realm of plausibility.)

    Certainly, I have often found Mr. D too dismissive of criticisms or challenges that, at least up to a point, I found valid, or at least understandable and not entirely unreasonable or without basis. (This does not mean that I found Mr. D’s interlocutor without fault, or even necessarily any more credible or compelling, at least on balance.)

    My feeling, though, is that if push came to shove, he’d side with the forces of anti-whitism. Anything else is too risky, see.

    This doesn’t make a lot of sense. Jack D seems well aware that most non-whites who are hostile to whites are at least as hostile toward Jews.

    NOTES and CITATIONS
    [1] Widespread claims to the contrary notwithstanding, goy (singular) and goyim (plural) are no more inherently pejorative than the English equivalent gentile. Reg Cæsar has even argued that “gentile is far more offensive than goy“.

    [2] An example of your exhibiting both hostility as well as a decidedly unreasonable assumption of bad faith that, if sincere, could very well indicate paranoia, is found in this comment of yours from January 2020. I happened to have come across that one again just last week, when the very same canard was regurgitated by the very same individual who had inquired about it and received a debunking response nearly a full a year ago.

  171. @Anon

    11:20 how did a virus w 14 mutations appear all of a sudden instead of little by little

    The theory behind mutated variants (I prefer using “strain” for changes that make previous immunity, natural or vaccine, no longer work) is ecological and evolutionary. Respectively, what circumstances cause different variants to fight it out for superiority, and what selection pressures cause them to even try hard to out compete each other.

    In the population at large, there are so many still naive to COVID-19 we don’t yet expect strong selection pressures to favor variants that transmit more wildly in a battle for the most “fit.” But there are people with wonky immune systems where they keep it from killing them, but don’t clear the virus quickly, or at all without for example a transfusion of convalescent antibodies as seen in one early case in the PRC. So inside their bodies, it’s a jungle, there’s very strong selection pressure for better transmission. Which might also result in better transmission between people. If we’re unlucky, some of these person will give an improved variant to others, and now it’ll out compete the previous prevalent variant(s) in person to person transmission.

    • Replies: @Kyle
  172. @Kyle

    I only have 1 question regarding the vaccine. How much does it cost?

    In the usual situation, doses themselves are free because they’ve been bought by the Federal government, but there can be an administrative charge for doing the paperwork and jabbing. There are of course many ways that’s also covered by for example your insurance as preventive care, or will be be waived, and you can apply for reimbursement from the CARES act. In sane states, I would expect the charges to be fairly low, and one November source said The Medicare reimbursement rate is $16.94 for the first dose and $28.39 for the final dose. I can see the second dose being reimbursed at a higher rate since it should allow for your provider to hound you to come back to get it in time….

  173. Kyle says:

    We need mass vaccinations to save lives and end the pandemic stage of this virus. A forrest fire is raging & we need to put out the fire. After vaccines hopefully put an end to the pandemic stage, at that point we need mass civil disobedience against the lockdowns, in order to end the hysteria. We need both of these things to happens. The only reason any individual is questioning the “science” of covid is that we get the sense that this means masks forever + lockdowns forever. Whatever you think personally is irrelevant. Can you blame these people for trying to rationalize covid out of existence? While we can most certainly end the pandemic, the pandemic has become endemic; it is in the populace. No matter what happens, we all have a chance of dying a horrible covid death in a nursing home some day. China has opened Pandora’s box. Caesar has crossed the rubicon, ect…

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
  174. Nico says:
    @Jack D

    Sometimes cytokine storms are the worst in people with strong immune systems.

    This is true but for COVID-19 it doesn’t appear to be nearly as large a factor as it was during the Spanish flu. The “no one is safe!” line is misleading, even though:

    The other thing is that there are LOTS of Americans with metabolic or lifestyle conditions. Maybe more than those who are in perfect health. Despite such conditions, modern medicine often keeps such people going for decades absent covid. So if you say Covid ONLY kills people with those conditions, you’re really not saying much because that leaves maybe 1/2 the population at risk.

    Again, not arguing otherwise. My own estimate is that lethal COVID-19, all age and metabolic factors considered, robs its victims of on average about seven years. But when metabolic conditions increase risk of the severe or lethal form by 50% to several times, it’s time to pay attention, and not nearly enough is being paid. COVID-19 is driven by a virus, yes, but it is also a distinctly modern pandemic which is enabled or greatly magnified by modern mobility and abundance.

    The fact that the biggest winners have included purveyors of doorstep sales (eg, Amazon) and home entertainment (eg, Netflix), i.e., champions of the sedentary life, may not be intentional, but it doesn’t help the conspiracy theories.

    • Agree: Dissident
  175. @Achmed E. Newman

    face diapers

    No need to invent a new term for those protective devices, because the term face masks already exists. Spanish mascarilla.

    But huge announcement today that the US will demand a negative Covid-19 test taken within 3 days of travel for all arrivals in the US, effective January 26th.

    While this new immigration policy will not be welcomed by airline and cruise ship employees, all credit must go to Mr. Trump and his White House team of public health experts who have been quietly working with the CDC behind the scenes in consultation with neighbors and allied nations for the last 10 months to overcome red tape and make this possible, so it is unfortunate that the credit for this, Trump’s finest achievement, will probably go down to Biden, who will be in office by the time this takes effect.

    I did not see the Rose Garden announcement of the new policy, and of course Trump is now off Twitter, but credit should go to the modest architect of the policy.

    The news headline ought to be: Biden Steals Credit for Trump Travel Testing Initiative, but it will probably be something negative like White House Finally Notices Pandemic.

    ̶H̶e̶i̶l̶ Hail to the Chief!

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  176. @Kyle

    I only have 1 question regarding the vaccine. How much does it cost?

    The wholesale price for the AstraZeneca vaccine is $4 per dose, so $8 for a double dose, which will be effective during the pandemic, but presumably will go up afterwards.

    The Russians have not published a price for the Sputnik V vaccine, but the maximum price has now been set at $26.20 for a double dose, and there is talk of it being manufactured in Argentina, among other places.

    I imagine that anyone who has Medicare in the US, that is persons over the age of 65 and some persons with disabilities, will not have to pay out of pocket for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines currently available in the US.

    It is not uncommon for medications to be sold at different prices in different world markets, and obviously tends to be higher in more affluent nations, and lower in lower income nations.

    In many countries such as Britain where a single health provider purchases millions of doses, the price is negotiated with the manufacturer and may or may not be made public.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  177. @Jack D

    I agree with this..

    I was just talking to my sister yesterday who is a doctor in England. She says they find cases like 20 Bangladeshi people all living in a small house, and all of them have Covid-19, and they don’t understand what is happening.

    These are the cases that you don’t read about.

  178. @Jonathan Mason

    See my previous comment about in the US vaccine doses being free, maybe an administrative charge for the paperwork, jab, and of course being ready for an allergic reaction.

    The wholesale price for the AstraZeneca vaccine is $4 per dose, so $8 for a double dose, which will be effective during the pandemic….

    The Russians have not published a price for the Sputnik V vaccine, but the maximum price has now been set at $26.20 for a double dose….

    Factor in efficacy, both AZ/Oxford and now perhaps the U.K. have been doing their best to obfuscate that critical result. As of now, per the U.K. in some group or groups of subjects ending in November 4th I think, 5,800 each vaccine and control (control may have been another unrelated vaccine or a placebo), they’re claiming 70% efficacy based on 30 and 101 infection cases in the two groups respectively.

    I don’t trust their efficacy claims at all especially since AZ/Oxford started out with a bogus blended figure which was a blatant lie and I use the “falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus” principle. And even then they’re rather modest, certainly the worse except for those that have failed so far like Sanofi/GSK for the elderly, and what we’re just now hearing about Sinovac’s CoronaVac inactivated live virus. “Passive” vaccines so far are not doing so well except perhaps based on the clue that after running a 15,000 subject trial in the U.K. for a while Novavax’s started their 30,000 subject trial in the US very recently.

    Gamaleya’s Gam-COVID-Vac AKA SputnikV is vs. the politicians not screwing around and has an unusual for the West Phase III protocol with a vaccine to control ratio of 3:1, risky if it took a long time to get enough cases in the latter, but it paid off handsomely. As of when they stopped for efficacy analysis 17,000 vs. 5,700 subjects with 16 vs. 62 cases, calculating a 91% efficacy. Weasel wording for when they stopped that, as of December 14th they had 26,000 people vaccinated for the purposes of safety evaluation, which they say is fine (it is an “active” vaccine, two virus vectors, one for each dose).

    I need to learn about the manufacturing of virus vectors that are replication deficient, that is you can’t just put them in cell cultures and crank out a lot of viruses, but this is an established technology vs. the brand new mRNA, where you probably can fairly cheaply crank out the mRNA, but we’re also I assume only now doing it at scale we’re just at the beginning of our learning curve (and any major changes need approval), and then you have to arrange the lipid protection just so which I’ve read is a bottleneck, and freeze the combination.

    So I’m guessing the higher prices for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna’s vaccines are based on more expensive manufacturing, and for all companies also the temperature at which they’re shipped and stored is a factor in the price. So BioNTech’s infamously ultra-low (less mature technology), Moderna and SputnikV normal freezer temperatures unless you freeze dry the latter, which of course increases its inherent costs by a lot, but worth if for locations without a cold chain, and AZ/Oxford refrigerator temperature.

  179. Kyle says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    Everyone wearing a mask & social distancing absent a vaccine increases selection for infectiousness yes? Or no? Is it possible it would have been better to just “let ‘er rip” and let the virus kill the old, fat, sickly, & immunocompromised?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  180. HA says:
    @Jack D

    “Highly doubtful. Name is not typically Jewish nor does his family history match.”

    It depends specifically on which family history you’re talking about. His wife is a novelist of some note:

    Didier Raoult s’est marié en 1982 avec Natacha Caïn, issue d’une famille juive lituanienne…. Elle a notamment écrit plusieurs romans …Ensemble, ils ont eu trois enfants Magali, Sacha – qui est maître de conférences en droit privé et sciences criminelles à Marseille – et Lola Raoult-Cohen qui est médecin psychiatre à Marseille et a notamment travaillé dans un centre expert sur les troubles bipolaires. Natacha Raoult-Cain semble en tout cas vouloir se mettre en retrait de la notoriété de son mari.

    I.e., his wife (and evidently his children) are Jewish, though I’m mainly just curious why, in this particular instance (as opposed to, say, Fauci or Wittkowski or Tegnell or any other names now associated with COVID), it would matter one way or the other. In any case, he’s kind of an interesting character — born in Senegal, worked in the merchant marines for a while, and was apparently a mediocre student who was basically forced by his military-doctor father to get into medicine.

  181. Anon87 says:
    @Steve Sailer

    You should stop thinking the vaccine will stop this. It is admitted NOT to keep you from getting or transmitting the virus, only potentially limited the effects if you get it and aren’t asymptomatic. This isn’t a polio or MMR shot.

    Having said that, absolutely put the elderly at the top of the list. Reduced symptoms if they get Covid may actually save their lives.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  182. @Kyle

    Everyone wearing a mask & social distancing absent a vaccine increases selection for infectiousness yes? Or no?

    Not as far as we can tell. First you need to define social distancing, 6 feet indoors is not even science as far as I know, and is obviously grossly inadequate even if it helps a bit.

    Also recently came across mention of a study that most transmission seems to be happening in dwellings, which is what I’d expect, especially as people spend more time indoors. Also thought to be a factor in for example southern California get crushed right now where Hispanics typically live crammed together by US standards (see Aesop on this).

    Surgical grade plus or minus mask wearing requires the people who are contagious to be all but universally doing it, and I doubt that’s happening, it’s also only a mitigation not a real preventive measure, and again, not in homes.

    Is it possible it would have been better to just “let ‘er rip” and let the virus kill the old, fat, sickly, & immunocompromised?

    I can’t even begin to fathom how that would make sense in terms of anything we’re talking about, but thanks again for reminding us you’re a sociopath, Mr. Lol.

  183. @Kyle

    “No matter what happens, we all have a chance of dying a horrible covid death in a nursing home some day”

    Lol, a troll most excellent, well played.

    If we all had the same covid prognosis, average human life expectancy would increase.

    Imagine, if you will, a virus so deadly that it increases average human life expectancy.

  184. @Anon87

    You should stop thinking the vaccine will stop this. It is admitted NOT to keep you from getting or transmitting the virus, only potentially limited the effects if you get it and aren’t asymptomatic.

    Citation Needed, because this is not what the companies or the FDA says except for no proof it stops transmission, just strong indications it does based on serological (blood) tests. See for example the endpoints of the Phase III clinical trial protocols, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, and the results reported to the FDA and the advisory committee’s discussions, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna.

    This is not the first time someone has chimed in with these ludicrous claims, where on earth are you getting them?

    • Replies: @Anon87
  185. Anon[138] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    Thanks for the tip. I looked rather at his hands which are still finely shaped.

    OTOH, he married Natasha Caïn, psychiatrist daughter of psychiatrists, she strongly identifies as jewish, and has managed to publish three lightweight novels, one titled “Please, not Christmas”. His daughter married a Cohen.
    Raoult’s father said the only career he would pay for his son was medicine. Raoult himself is pugnacious, can hold a grudge, but then who can blame him. He’s been vilified yet asked back on tv programs. Not cancelled or fired. He recalled a Yiddish proverb on video. Very, very little personal information on wiki. Maybe it’s just the wife’s influence.
    Anyway, a fine scientist.

  186. Anon87 says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    Search “do I still need to wear a mask” and choose from any of the many articles that come up from the last month referencing the medical community saying, a) the vaccine may only last 6 months, we have no good data beyond that, b) the studies were not focused on if covid could still be transmitted after vaccination, so they can’t say. They say if you get the vaccine it is 94-95% effective (but you may only have reduced symptoms). It’s everywhere, am I just supposed to ignore all of these mainstream sources? I’m not reading paranoid InfoWars here. I listened to a University of Rochester Medical Center lecture and they were clear about what it does and what they can’t claim yet.

    They are hopeful it pans out in regards to lasting effectiveness and transmission, but without more studies and data they aren’t claiming more.

    The rollout has been a joke to date, so with what we know so far what’s wrong with prioritizing the elderly and compromised?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  187. @Jonathan Mason

    I’m not writing this to piss you off, Mr. Mason, but I like Mr. J.S.O. Marteen’s trademarked term just the same. (Peak Stupidity has rights per our legal staff, last I heard.)

    Regarding the rest of your comment, no argument from me.

  188. Mike Tre says:
    @Steve Sailer

    “There’s a pretty obvious negative IQ correlation with refusing vaccine, so my guess is that orderlies are more likely to refuse than M.D.s.”

    Citation or this is pure dishonesty.

  189. HA says:

    “Citation or this is pure dishonesty.”

    If you lean towards anti-vaxxer and you apparently couldn’t be bothered to simply type “anti-vaxxxer iq correlation” into a search engine, that maybe constitutes at least anecdotal evidence as to what I’m about to lay down, but had you done that you probably would have found the following.

    According to a 2015 Pew research poll, anti-vaxxers are more likely to be:

    In lower income brackets: People earning less than $25,000 a year are 50% more likely to distrust vaccines.

    Live in rural areas: Rural dwellers are 28% more likely to refuse vaccines. [But also see the link below for another take on that.]

    Non-college educated: People with a high school diploma as their highest education level are 11% more likely to be against vaccines.

    According to the same study, they’re more likely to be liberal, though that was pre-COVID and pre-Trump and there are some interesting wrinkles that deserve mention. There isn’t a breakout for IQ specifically, but putting all that together it should be easy for most people to see that Sailer is on pretty solid ground as far as this particular guess goes, but then again, you’re the guy who thinks having to wear a mask during a respiratory disease epidemic constitutes the “the greatest seizure of individual liberties ever perpetrated on the American people”, so in your case, who knows? (And hey, you better watch out — with flowery language like that, the local anti-hyper-emotional police might come after you.)

  190. ISteve, did you see that Azar recommended that the vaccines should now go to those 65 and over? Newsom today agreed, and my health system this afternoon posted a notice that this is now their policy. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-13/california-opens-covid-vaccine-eligibility-people-over-65

    I’m over 65 and that benefits me. It must have been brought about by mighty lobby pressure from AARP (imagine the senior mailer a challenger could send out in the next election). You observed that there may be justifiable reasons other than racial discrimination to distribute vaccines other than on the basis of age vulnerability, but the CDC didn’t bother to offer any. It might be wise to vaccinate those whose circumstances compel frequent human contact — to slow the spread. I think what it comes down to is that in the fog of mass action during an emergency any criteria more fancy than health worker or easily verified age are too burdensome to manage.

    I had a Novovax Phase 3 trial vaccination or placebo yesterday; second three weeks from now. Researching the matter, there are rumors it has 99% efficacy and extremely low side effects. It does not require extraordinary temperature handling, and Novavax is also seeking approval for a combined influenza-coronavirus jab. Although it wasn’t first out of the gate, it is likely to become vaccine of choice in later 2021 and years beyond as part of the annual fall virus shot…

    • Replies: @epebble
  191. @Anon87

    [You try moving the goalposts.] It’s everywhere, am I just supposed to ignore all of these mainstream sources? I’m not reading paranoid InfoWars here. I listened to a University of Rochester Medical Center

    Yes, primary sources are always preferred to secondary ones, and MSM ones in particular, for science and medicine should never be used except as a pointer to primary ones, or high quality publication secondary ones. For example, summary editorials in medical and scientific journals, or Derek “Things I Won’t Work With” Lowe’s In the Pipeline blog.

    I have difficultly believing I even have to make this point, what the companies and the FDA say about their vaccines is what counts the most, not vacuous talking heads speculating for months in advance, and often motivated by getting rid of the BAD ORANGE MAN, or some random hospital.

    The only two new but slightly legitimate points you bring up is that of course we don’t, because we can’t, know how long natural or vaccine immunity will last, that’s something we learn for sure a day at a time. And what happens when vaccines fail to stop someone from getting an infection. Looking at the primary sources of data, we don’t have statistically significant evidence either prevents severe infections, for Moderna that claim would come from later data when the severe cases got up to 30, which might be statistically significant from what I remember of the FDA originally looking for 32 cases for a very first level of significance.

    Primary source data is from November 20th and 30th, the days of the FDA Emergency Use Authorization applications based on the Phase III trials. For Moderna 10,400 subjects each, vaccine arm and control arm (placebo for this but not studies which are starting soon), adjudicated COVID-19 cases 5/90, unadjudicated additional cases 1/17, or a total of 6/107. 11 cases as of then graded severe, all in the placebo group.

    Which is comforting, but not yet true scientific evidence. There’s another 5 unadjudicated severe cases, again all placebo. Pfizer didn’t have enough severe cases to even really consider, 1 vaccine due to oxygen saturation of 93% in room air, but did not need hospitalization, 3 placebo, again one like that 1 vaccine severe case but one point lower, it’s implied in the FDA staff report this person also didn’t need hospitalization. So, again comforting information, but definitely not statistically significant, especially since the Pfizer/BioNTech trial was larger, ~21,300 each arm of the study.

  192. peterike says:

    Safest vaccine EVER!

  193. @Alfa158

    Language works best when virtually everyone agrees what various words mean. There is a network effect, so we do not individually have the ability to change word meanings and still be generally understood properly. The mainstream media has decided that young blacks causing trouble are called “youths” and we are stuck with that word for that meaning, due to network effects. If you use a different word, you cannot be properly understood.

  194. epebble says:
    @New Dealer

    That was a bluff. There is no vaccine reserve to expand the eligible pool. The statement was made by Azar to fend of political heat over holding back second doses when 4,000 people are dying every day.

    HHS Secretary Alex Azar said Tuesday the federal government would no longer hold second vaccine doses in reserve and urged states to broaden eligibility.

    Vaccine reserve was already exhausted when Trump administration vowed to release it, dashing hopes of expanded access

    States were anticipating a windfall after federal officials said they would stop holding back second doses. But the policy had already changed, and no stockpile …

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/15/trump-vaccine-reserve-used-up/

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