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The 1918 Flu in Samoa: An Unnatural Experiment in Quarantine
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From Corpus:

Influenza 1918: the Samoan experience
November 5, 2018
John Ryan McLane

In 1918 the Samoan archipelago was split between American Samoa (a United States territory) and Western Samoa (previously a German colony but under New Zealand governance from 1914). The 1918 influenza pandemic killed a quarter of Western Samoans, while leaving American Samoa unscathed. Why were their experiences so different?

In late 1918 a second wave within a single pandemic of influenza was spreading throughout Asia and the Pacific. On 30 October 1918 the Union Steamship Company’s Talune left Auckland for its run through Polynesia. The new, more lethal influenza variant had arrived in Auckland with the spring, and several crew members were ill. On 7 November the Talune reached Apia, the main port of New Zealand-occupied Western Samoa. …

The two Samoas were in regular contact with each other, and controlled all access to the outside world through two ports: Pago Pago in the east and Apia in the west. The dangers of ship-borne disease were well known, and exclusion of many diseases, especially plague, had been implemented since the imposition of colonial governance nineteen years before.

How then to explain the differing responses to the approach of the pandemic? When the Talune docked in Western Samoa she was not put in quarantine. No word had come from Auckland by wireless, and the ship’s captain did not mention that influenza was in New Zealand. In fact, the captain instructed ill crew and passengers to hide their malady so as to prevent being delayed in Apia.

The Germans had developed their colony of Western Samoa as a commercial enterprise. European-owned plantations occupied one-fifth of the land, supported by a network of European planters and shipping agents. Three times more foreign ships visited Apia than Pago Pago. When the issue of quarantine arose, the New Zealand Governor, Colonel Logan, faced the hostility of this trading community, as well as significant logistical difficulties. Logan needed a larger infrastructure to cope with the number of ships quarantined, and would have had difficulty enforcing any such restrictive edict. …

Facing a lack of experience, a dearth of instructions and an unhelpful infrastructure, Logan perceived little support. He chose to wait for directives. The port remained open.

American Samoa presented a different set of circumstances. During nineteen years of benign neglect the administration in Pago Pago had learned to act autonomously. Without oversight from Washington the naval bureaucracy had left most affairs to the traditional Samoan nobility and did not interfere in the granting of titles. The medical staff were naval officers with knowledge of quarantine.

To officials in Washington, American Samoa was a naval station with an incidental indigenous population. There was scant need for traders to maintain a permanent presence in the colony and no effort to attract settlers. This facilitated the American Governor’s use of quarantine: the absence of a trader community allowed General Poyer to impose measures without resistance, and the small number of ships visiting Pago Pago made such an effort manageable. When descriptions of the flu reached Poyer, he acted decisively. Quarantine was established, and implemented under the leadership of traditional chiefs. With modifications, the quarantine in American Samoa continued, with no fatal cases of influenza reported, until late 1921.

In contrast, Western Samoa suffered the highest known mortality of any state during the 1918-1921 pandemic. At least 24 percent of the population died, and most who died were between 18-50 years of age. Half of the most productive age cohort of Western Samoa, and the chiefly and religious elites, died. Western Samoa collapsed. …

 
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  1. There is also the story of smallpox in Tito’s Yougoslavia….

  2. The Western Samoa (now Samoa) turned out much better in the end than American Samoa. Paul Theroux hated American Samoa iirc.

    “American Samoa has become a garbage dump; junk even overflows into the lagoons, paving them with discarded drink cans (and dead coral). Their remarkable free-money economy, Theroux reports, has turned a race of warriors and master navigators into a tubby, profligate people shoving supermarket carts full of junk food.”

    Here from another writer:

    https://www.leeabbamonte.com/oceania/differences-samoa-american-samoa.html

    “However, the main difference I myself have observed is the people. The people of Samoa are some of the most warm and welcoming people I have ever encountered. Their selfless culture makes you want to be a better person. They have been influenced by the west in some ways but have really maintained their own identity and culture in my eyes. ”

    “American Samoa has clearly been influenced by its US affiliation not that there’s anything wrong with that.[…] Other influences are loud (bad) music and apparently there is a big crystal meth problem on American Samoa. In fact, we were asked if we wanted to buy some “ice”. We didn’t know what that meant and had to look it up. It was just assumed that was why we had come to American Samoa-true story!”

    “I really did love Samoa if that’s not obvious to anyone who followed my trip or has read my posts. However, I did not love American Samoa either time I have visited and I likely will not return.”

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Theroux would have hated Nauru even more. The population got fat off the earnings from selling phosphate from the bird droppings on the island, the resource has now been fully exploited and all they have left is diabetes. Coconut oil is incredibly fattening.

    https://www.ft.com/content/da2e7890-4851-11e4-b5ad-00144feab7de

    Corona virus is too contagious to fully contain, thankfully the mortality rate is low at around two percent.
    , @Jake
    What is the great lesson about what happened to American Samoa?

    As it became Americanized, as it assimilated to Yank WASP culture, it became more and more decadent.
    , @Pincher Martin

    The Western Samoa (now Samoa) turned out much better in the end than American Samoa. Paul Theroux hated American Samoa iirc.
     
    Well, if the dumb and dull Paul Theroux hated American Samoa, then that is a high mark in its favor.

    Let's compare American Samoa to Western Samoa. The former has a higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rate, lower death rate, and nearly double the per capita income.

    And apropos to the current topic, Western Samoa suffered a grisly measles outbreak last year due to the low vaccine rate among the superstitious natives. More than sixty people have died.

    American Samoa also recently suffered a measles outbreak, but since they have a better than 99 percent vaccination rate, no one has died from it yet. Only a few travelers have been infected.

    I can see why the witless Paul Theroux disliked American Samoa so much. Plainly, "in the end", as Utu put it, things turned out so much better in Western Samoa. At least the residents in Western Samoa aren't eating so much American junk food and listening to loud music.

  3. Interesting. But maybe there is another cause.

    It seems more and more likely that aspirin was partly responsible for the pandemic in 1918 (https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/health/13aspirin.html).

    Aspirin was fabricated by the German company Bayer…

    • Replies: @Jack D
    This is highly doubtful. It was a worldwide pandemic. Millions died in places where they had never even heard of aspirin. Could some small % of Americans have died from aspirin overdose? Sure but that wasn't the main cause. This is just a red herring and Starko based her theory on nothing but speculation.
    , @El Dato
    Well, the virus has been disinterred from Icelandic patients, I don't think aspirin was mentioned, however there was a lot of talk about how its surface proteins glom on human cell surfaces.

    But then, what are we talking here..


    The Journal of the American Medical Association suggested a dose of 1,000 milligrams every three hours, the equivalent of almost 25 standard 325-milligram aspirin tablets in 24 hours. This is about twice the daily dosage generally considered safe today.
     
    Yeah, don't do that.

    Although he doubted that more than a small number of deaths could be attributed to aspirin overdose, Dr. David M. Morens, an epidemiologist with the National Institutes of Health, said the paper was valuable in that “it makes an attempt to look at environmental or host factors that may be involved.” He said, “We haven’t been able to explain all the deaths in young adults with the virus itself.”

    Dr. Starko was hesitant to estimate how many deaths aspirin overdose could have caused, but suggested that military archives might be one place to look. “I’m hoping others will follow up,” she said, “by examining available treatment records.”
     

    So, let's say a few hundred dead? Not excact an onramp to THE HOLOCAUST.

    Aspirin was fabricated by the German company Bayer…
     
    Still is.
  4. The modern elites would rather have tens of thousands dead than tolerate proof that a motivated, competent government can control who does and doesn’t enter its territory.

    • Agree: HammerJack, BB753
    • Replies: @HammerJack
    The important thing is that we still have our open borders! All of the MSM outlets are posting stories about how other diseases in the past have killed more people, and that nazis are using this one as yet another pretext for their irredeemable racism.
    , @bomag
    "What happened with not quarantining was a tragedy, but I think it would be an even greater tragedy if our diversity becomes a casualty here."
    , @Jake
    But why?

    Trade as the greatest good.
    , @Corn
    Agreed. Western governments would hate to admit that yes, Virginia, borders can be controlled.
    , @Desiderius
    https://twitter.com/relicn0cer/status/1223235287633072131?s=20
    , @Dieter Kief
    TVA really good looking young man, vital, optimistic, nice, explained in German TV with a smiling face, the virus causes only trouble for the old and sick! - So - no need to worry folks, everything is just fine!
    , @PiltdownMan
  5. @Anonymous
    The modern elites would rather have tens of thousands dead than tolerate proof that a motivated, competent government can control who does and doesn't enter its territory.

    The important thing is that we still have our open borders! All of the MSM outlets are posting stories about how other diseases in the past have killed more people, and that nazis are using this one as yet another pretext for their irredeemable racism.

  6. @Anonymous
    The modern elites would rather have tens of thousands dead than tolerate proof that a motivated, competent government can control who does and doesn't enter its territory.

    “What happened with not quarantining was a tragedy, but I think it would be an even greater tragedy if our diversity becomes a casualty here.”

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
    • LOL: ben tillman
  7. @utu
    The Western Samoa (now Samoa) turned out much better in the end than American Samoa. Paul Theroux hated American Samoa iirc.

    "American Samoa has become a garbage dump; junk even overflows into the lagoons, paving them with discarded drink cans (and dead coral). Their remarkable free-money economy, Theroux reports, has turned a race of warriors and master navigators into a tubby, profligate people shoving supermarket carts full of junk food."

    Here from another writer:

    https://www.leeabbamonte.com/oceania/differences-samoa-american-samoa.html

    "However, the main difference I myself have observed is the people. The people of Samoa are some of the most warm and welcoming people I have ever encountered. Their selfless culture makes you want to be a better person. They have been influenced by the west in some ways but have really maintained their own identity and culture in my eyes. "

    "American Samoa has clearly been influenced by its US affiliation not that there’s anything wrong with that.[...] Other influences are loud (bad) music and apparently there is a big crystal meth problem on American Samoa. In fact, we were asked if we wanted to buy some “ice”. We didn’t know what that meant and had to look it up. It was just assumed that was why we had come to American Samoa-true story!"

    "I really did love Samoa if that’s not obvious to anyone who followed my trip or has read my posts. However, I did not love American Samoa either time I have visited and I likely will not return."

    Theroux would have hated Nauru even more. The population got fat off the earnings from selling phosphate from the bird droppings on the island, the resource has now been fully exploited and all they have left is diabetes. Coconut oil is incredibly fattening.

    https://www.ft.com/content/da2e7890-4851-11e4-b5ad-00144feab7de

    Corona virus is too contagious to fully contain, thankfully the mortality rate is low at around two percent.

    • Replies: @Smithsonian_6
    I am not convinced by the 2% mortality figure since that is just the number of cases / number of deaths.

    Instead, the calculation needs to be

    Number of dead / (number of dead + number of recoveries)

    Which is quite different.
    This article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51214864 gives a mortality rate of AT LEAST 10% which is much more serious.
    , @James Forrestal

    Corona virus is too contagious to fully contain, thankfully the mortality rate is low at around two percent.
     
    1. The 1918 "Spanish Flu" had a case-fatality rate of about 2.5%. It killed at least 50 million people -- possibly 100 million. On the other hand, MERS (a coronavirus related to 2019-nCoV) has a case-fatality rate of 20% or more. Sucks for you if you get it, but at a population level it's not nearly as big a threat, because it's mostly not transmitted very efficiently person-to-person [so far]. It keeps getting reintroduced from an animal reservoir (camels).

    2. As Smithsonian pointed out, most people don't die on the day that they're diagnosed, so when the epidemic is in an exponential growth phase, comparing current total cases with current total deaths understates mortality (misses the sick people who are going to die from the disease, but haven't died yet).

    3. On the other side, especially in Wuhan, where the healthcare system is overwhelmed, a lot of mild cases likely aren't getting formally diagnosed -- which would tend falsely elevate mortality. Tough to know exactly how various factors balance out.

    This model estimates a fatality rate of around 6.5%.

    Bottom line: even with a case-fatality rate of 2%, it's worth going all out to try to contain this. As long as they can keep the number of potential cases down to a level that screening, identifying cases, contact tracing, and isolation can keep up with, then there's a decent chance. Gotta keep the effective reproduction number below 1. If the above model is correct, that can be accomplished by reducing the average infectious exposure time to 2.3 days or less. If Whites turn out to be less susceptible than Asians (as some of the ACE2 data suggests), that should help as well.

    The 14 day quarantine on people coming in from China is a little late, but may still do it.

  8. Lesson #1: contrary to the Libertarian religion, nations/provinces/cities/peoples that are ‘traders‘ – meaning, their identity is in commerce, not in land and the people living on the land, and their politics are based on shipping, their ‘nobility’ the richest traders – will always be more viciously amoral (love of money as root of all evil, and such) than counterparts based on land and extended family.

    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics. Swap all the American Samoans for the Western Samoans, and the same tragedy would have unfolded in Western Samoa, because Western Samoa’s reigning culture would have remained the same.

    Now the really astute and brave of you can, and should, apply this knowledge to comparative studies that matter more to the world than Samoa.

    • Replies: @Divine Right

    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics.
     
    What superficial nonsense. This has to be a troll post.

    "Ethnic diversity has long been considered as one of the factors explaining why the severe forms of dengue are more prevalent in Southeast Asia than elsewhere ... The researchers identified two genes related to blood vessel inflammation that confer risk of severe dengue, and four genes related to metabolism that affect risk of classic dengue fever. Further experiments showed that variations in the genes led to observable changes in cellular dynamics. Additionally, a comparison with the genetic databases of individuals of African and European origin showed that the prevalence of these variations varies based on ethnic ancestry.
     
    https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-area/press-documents/genetics-makes-asians-and-europeans-susceptible-severe-dengue

    Now the really astute and brave of you can, and should, apply this knowledge to comparative studies that matter more to the world than Samoa
     
    Har har har
    , @anon

    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics.
     
    Weebs, watch out! I hear this virus infects Asians best, so you guys are in trouble.
    , @RobRich
    You sound like a typical anti-libertarian bigot who gets things exactly reversed.

    The Libertarian lesson here is the value of voluntary networks of family and clan, and local autonomy.

    Plus don't be part of a socialist German monarchic dictatorship with legislated trade monopolies.
  9. @Anonymous
    The modern elites would rather have tens of thousands dead than tolerate proof that a motivated, competent government can control who does and doesn't enter its territory.

    But why?

    Trade as the greatest good.

  10. @utu
    The Western Samoa (now Samoa) turned out much better in the end than American Samoa. Paul Theroux hated American Samoa iirc.

    "American Samoa has become a garbage dump; junk even overflows into the lagoons, paving them with discarded drink cans (and dead coral). Their remarkable free-money economy, Theroux reports, has turned a race of warriors and master navigators into a tubby, profligate people shoving supermarket carts full of junk food."

    Here from another writer:

    https://www.leeabbamonte.com/oceania/differences-samoa-american-samoa.html

    "However, the main difference I myself have observed is the people. The people of Samoa are some of the most warm and welcoming people I have ever encountered. Their selfless culture makes you want to be a better person. They have been influenced by the west in some ways but have really maintained their own identity and culture in my eyes. "

    "American Samoa has clearly been influenced by its US affiliation not that there’s anything wrong with that.[...] Other influences are loud (bad) music and apparently there is a big crystal meth problem on American Samoa. In fact, we were asked if we wanted to buy some “ice”. We didn’t know what that meant and had to look it up. It was just assumed that was why we had come to American Samoa-true story!"

    "I really did love Samoa if that’s not obvious to anyone who followed my trip or has read my posts. However, I did not love American Samoa either time I have visited and I likely will not return."

    What is the great lesson about what happened to American Samoa?

    As it became Americanized, as it assimilated to Yank WASP culture, it became more and more decadent.

  11. “Chinese food culture” is sacred (along with neoliberal globalist ideology) so we just have to put up with the risk of global pandemics and the certain extermination of numerous endangered species.

    It's almost like the Cathedral knows it can use climate change to gain power, as in the Green New DealBut that the measures needed to fight lethal diseases might strip it of powerLike, for instance, forcing it to admit that some behaviors are more likely to cause pandemics pic.twitter.com/alRE1zbGGF— 17thCenturyShytePost (@17cShyteposter) January 31, 2020

    • Agree: JMcG
  12. @Anonymous
    The modern elites would rather have tens of thousands dead than tolerate proof that a motivated, competent government can control who does and doesn't enter its territory.

    Agreed. Western governments would hate to admit that yes, Virginia, borders can be controlled.

  13. @Xavier B
    Interesting. But maybe there is another cause.

    It seems more and more likely that aspirin was partly responsible for the pandemic in 1918 (https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/health/13aspirin.html).

    Aspirin was fabricated by the German company Bayer...

    This is highly doubtful. It was a worldwide pandemic. Millions died in places where they had never even heard of aspirin. Could some small % of Americans have died from aspirin overdose? Sure but that wasn’t the main cause. This is just a red herring and Starko based her theory on nothing but speculation.

    • Agree: HammerJack
  14. I remember when you posted this Steve several uears ago. Very insightful…..and prophetic?

    1 of the reasons we’re spreading our legs wide open for the world is that tje economy itself has become so tourism & consumption based.

    Idaho probably won’t get raped by a pandemic as bad as say Vegas or Florida or coastal California etc due to those regions having to whore themselves.

    But yeah we’re fascists or whatever for wanting quarantine at the border.

  15. Even in Singapore, a country that’s 70% ethnic Chinese and relies heavily on Chinese tourism, the Singaporean Chinese are openly cursing the “China people” for their “disgusting eating habits”. Singapore became the first country in Asia to ban entry of all Chinese nationals. Italy the first in the EU.

    But all Trump cares about is the stock market and Israel. Suspending all air travel from China would be bad for business, which would be bad for the stock market. Better to kill off a few thousand Americans than to have the DOW shed a few thousand. But as soon as we have the first death in America, the stock market is going to nosedive anyway. That’s the trouble with the money loving crowd, they only care about short term profits.

    America’s first Jewish president is reaffirming to the world what America is really all about: Money. Business before lives. That is who we are.

  16. ” Quarantine was established, and implemented under the leadership of traditional chiefs.”

    Tribalism! EEEEEEKK!!!

  17. What we needed:

    LOTR The Return of the King – The Black Gate Opens

    What we got instead:

    Family Guy – Britney Spears dietitian

  18. OT: Preprint of one of the first papers on 2019-nCov.

    Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

    Key quotes:

    Men are 3 times as likely to get it, and men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers that give you #2019nCoV
    Asians have 5 times as much as Africans/Europeans.

    We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.

    This is similar to previous suspicions that a variant in the IFITM3 gene (The SNP rs12252) is associated with susceptibility to infection and severity of symptoms for flu viruses and that the relative population frequency differs with East Asians having a higher frequency of the flu risk variant and the apparent protective effects of this variant against yellow fever and malaria are thought to be the reasons. (Europe having been mostly malaria-free since the Little Ice Age is thought to have killed off the Malaria parasites but not the vector mosquitos.)

    IFITM3 Rs12252-C Variant Increases Potential Risk for Severe Influenza Virus Infection in Chinese Population
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5491636/

    IFITM3: How genetics influence influenza infection demographically
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2319417018305675

    IFITM3 protects the heart during influenza virus infection
    https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18607

    I know one researcher in London wanted to at least estimate the relative frequency of the variant in different populations and use the census data to see if the spread of seasonal flu could be correlated to ancestry and thus enable priortisation of public health efforts in high risk areas.

    For those at home who have had their genome sequenced. The C variant (According to dbSNP strand orientation) for rs12252 is the one associated with increased flu risk, if you’re hom for it, maybe a good idea to get your annual flu shot in your later years or if you have health complications.

    • Replies: @Lurker

    Men are 3 times as likely to get it, and men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers that give you #2019nCoV
     
    All those M to F trannies must be breathing a sigh of relief.
    , @Altai
    I should point out, these numbers come from 8 samples, only one of whom is Asian. But the previous work on IFITM3 makes it more interesting as a possible scenario.
  19. Personally, I think that President Trump blew the political response, which should have been to get out in front of the do-nothing Democrats and show an excess of caution, even if it wasn’t really warranted scientifically.

    I assume that President Trump is following the recommendations of the CDC; this is what they’ve been doing, as well as their current assessment:

    For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV is considered low. The goal of the ongoing U.S. public health response is to contain this outbreak and prevent sustained spread of 2019-nCov in this country.

    – CDC established a 2019-nCoV Incident Management Structure on January 7, 2020. On January 21, 2020, CDC activated its Emergency Response System to better provide ongoing support to the 2019-nCoV response.
    – On January 27, 2020 CDC issued updated travel guidance for China, recommending that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to all of the country (Level 3 Travel Health Notice).
    – CDC and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) are continuing to conduct enhanced entry screening of passengers who have been in Wuhan within the past 14 days at 5 designated U.S. airports. Given travel out of Wuhan has been shut down, the number of passengers who meet this criteria are dwindling.
    – Going forward, CBP officials will monitor for travelers with symptoms compatible with 2019-nCoV infection and a travel connection with China and will refer them to CDC staff for evaluation at all 20 U.S. quarantine stations.
    – At the same time, ALL travelers from China will be given CDC’s Travel Health Alert Notice, educating those travelers about what to do if they get sick with certain symptoms within 14 days after arriving in the United States.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html#anchor_1580079137454

    • Replies: @Anon7
    Okay, so you know how I wrote this post that was saying basically don’t panic?

    “Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed ["not fortuitous'].”

    (Via Anand Ranganathan, who obtained his BSc (Hons) degree in Chemistry from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi after which he left on a Nehru Centenary Scholarship for Cambridge, UK, where he obtained his BA (Tripos) in Natural Sciences, his MA, and his PhD. After a post-doctoral stint at Cambridge, Anand returned to India to join International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Delhi where he ran his lab for 16 years.)

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

    So, who’s read The Stand?
  20. The story/play/movie Rain is set in Pago Pogo during a quarantine. In the 1932 film Joan Crawford makes a stunning appearance in her first scene and there’s an interesting scene of some US Marines marching and singing in the rain.

  21. As far as quarantine goes for the current epidemic, it is probably already too little too late. Cases of corona virus are appearing all over the world.

    Had all flights out of China been stopped earlier, the spread might have been prevented, but probably would just have delayed it as it would have spread overland thoughout Asia.

    The best hope is that like a lot of viruses, it is seasonal and likes cold weather, and that the hotter weather coming this summer will stop the spread.

    The current temperature in Wuhan is 45F.

    • Replies: @El Dato

    The current temperature in Wuhan is 45F.
     
    Sounds like the title of a good song.
    , @HA
    "As far as quarantine goes for the current epidemic, it is probably already too little too late. Cases of corona virus are appearing all over the world."

    Quarantine is still useful, even after an epidemic enters a country. That's how they helped contain the damage of the latest measles outbreak.

    I mean, unless we're talking about something like AIDS -- some sacred cows are far too holy to ever be tethered.

  22. @Xavier B
    Interesting. But maybe there is another cause.

    It seems more and more likely that aspirin was partly responsible for the pandemic in 1918 (https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/health/13aspirin.html).

    Aspirin was fabricated by the German company Bayer...

    Well, the virus has been disinterred from Icelandic patients, I don’t think aspirin was mentioned, however there was a lot of talk about how its surface proteins glom on human cell surfaces.

    But then, what are we talking here..

    The Journal of the American Medical Association suggested a dose of 1,000 milligrams every three hours, the equivalent of almost 25 standard 325-milligram aspirin tablets in 24 hours. This is about twice the daily dosage generally considered safe today.

    Yeah, don’t do that.

    Although he doubted that more than a small number of deaths could be attributed to aspirin overdose, Dr. David M. Morens, an epidemiologist with the National Institutes of Health, said the paper was valuable in that “it makes an attempt to look at environmental or host factors that may be involved.” He said, “We haven’t been able to explain all the deaths in young adults with the virus itself.”

    Dr. Starko was hesitant to estimate how many deaths aspirin overdose could have caused, but suggested that military archives might be one place to look. “I’m hoping others will follow up,” she said, “by examining available treatment records.”

    So, let’s say a few hundred dead? Not excact an onramp to THE HOLOCAUST.

    Aspirin was fabricated by the German company Bayer…

    Still is.

    • Replies: @utu
    "Bayer's patent on aspirin expired, so many companies rushed in to make a profit and greatly increased the supply; this coincided with the Spanish flu; and the symptoms of aspirin poisoning were not known at the time." - Wiki
  23. @Jonathan Mason
    As far as quarantine goes for the current epidemic, it is probably already too little too late. Cases of corona virus are appearing all over the world.

    Had all flights out of China been stopped earlier, the spread might have been prevented, but probably would just have delayed it as it would have spread overland thoughout Asia.

    The best hope is that like a lot of viruses, it is seasonal and likes cold weather, and that the hotter weather coming this summer will stop the spread.

    The current temperature in Wuhan is 45F.

    The current temperature in Wuhan is 45F.

    Sounds like the title of a good song.

  24. @Altai
    OT: Preprint of one of the first papers on 2019-nCov.

    Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

    Key quotes:


    Men are 3 times as likely to get it, and men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers that give you #2019nCoV
    Asians have 5 times as much as Africans/Europeans.

    ...

    We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.
     

    This is similar to previous suspicions that a variant in the IFITM3 gene (The SNP rs12252) is associated with susceptibility to infection and severity of symptoms for flu viruses and that the relative population frequency differs with East Asians having a higher frequency of the flu risk variant and the apparent protective effects of this variant against yellow fever and malaria are thought to be the reasons. (Europe having been mostly malaria-free since the Little Ice Age is thought to have killed off the Malaria parasites but not the vector mosquitos.)

    IFITM3 Rs12252-C Variant Increases Potential Risk for Severe Influenza Virus Infection in Chinese Population
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5491636/

    IFITM3: How genetics influence influenza infection demographically
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2319417018305675

    IFITM3 protects the heart during influenza virus infection
    https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18607

    I know one researcher in London wanted to at least estimate the relative frequency of the variant in different populations and use the census data to see if the spread of seasonal flu could be correlated to ancestry and thus enable priortisation of public health efforts in high risk areas.

    For those at home who have had their genome sequenced. The C variant (According to dbSNP strand orientation) for rs12252 is the one associated with increased flu risk, if you're hom for it, maybe a good idea to get your annual flu shot in your later years or if you have health complications.

    Men are 3 times as likely to get it, and men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers that give you #2019nCoV

    All those M to F trannies must be breathing a sigh of relief.

    • LOL: JMcG, Smithsonian_6
    • Replies: @Neoconned
    A relative of mine is a hospice nurse. She related a story to me about a m2f trans person who died of a female type of breast cancer after getting female breast hormones and implants....i thought that ironic.
    , @donut
    I wonder if temporarily identifying as female until the crisis has passed would work ?
    , @Altai
    Sadly the reason is because the ACE2 gene is on the X chromosome. So male odds of being homozygous for risk variants is higher than for women who obviously have two X chromosomes.

    No amount of HRT is going to fix that.
  25. Our new, unfamiliar, uncomfortable sovereignty:

    Anon said:
    Alex Jones has been saying this for years, specifically about A&M.

  26. @Lurker

    Men are 3 times as likely to get it, and men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers that give you #2019nCoV
     
    All those M to F trannies must be breathing a sigh of relief.

    A relative of mine is a hospice nurse. She related a story to me about a m2f trans person who died of a female type of breast cancer after getting female breast hormones and implants….i thought that ironic.

  27. @Lurker

    Men are 3 times as likely to get it, and men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers that give you #2019nCoV
     
    All those M to F trannies must be breathing a sigh of relief.

    I wonder if temporarily identifying as female until the crisis has passed would work ?

  28. @Altai
    OT: Preprint of one of the first papers on 2019-nCov.

    Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

    Key quotes:


    Men are 3 times as likely to get it, and men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers that give you #2019nCoV
    Asians have 5 times as much as Africans/Europeans.

    ...

    We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.
     

    This is similar to previous suspicions that a variant in the IFITM3 gene (The SNP rs12252) is associated with susceptibility to infection and severity of symptoms for flu viruses and that the relative population frequency differs with East Asians having a higher frequency of the flu risk variant and the apparent protective effects of this variant against yellow fever and malaria are thought to be the reasons. (Europe having been mostly malaria-free since the Little Ice Age is thought to have killed off the Malaria parasites but not the vector mosquitos.)

    IFITM3 Rs12252-C Variant Increases Potential Risk for Severe Influenza Virus Infection in Chinese Population
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5491636/

    IFITM3: How genetics influence influenza infection demographically
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2319417018305675

    IFITM3 protects the heart during influenza virus infection
    https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18607

    I know one researcher in London wanted to at least estimate the relative frequency of the variant in different populations and use the census data to see if the spread of seasonal flu could be correlated to ancestry and thus enable priortisation of public health efforts in high risk areas.

    For those at home who have had their genome sequenced. The C variant (According to dbSNP strand orientation) for rs12252 is the one associated with increased flu risk, if you're hom for it, maybe a good idea to get your annual flu shot in your later years or if you have health complications.

    I should point out, these numbers come from 8 samples, only one of whom is Asian. But the previous work on IFITM3 makes it more interesting as a possible scenario.

    • Replies: @Altai
    Though there is an extensive literature on variants in ACE2 being significantly different in Chinese populations versus European ones. In these cases linked to hypertension risks.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16866021
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16822235
    https://academic.oup.com/ajh/article/25/2/216/2282074
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6195726
    https://www.nature.com/articles/1002090

    And so on...

  29. @utu
    The Western Samoa (now Samoa) turned out much better in the end than American Samoa. Paul Theroux hated American Samoa iirc.

    "American Samoa has become a garbage dump; junk even overflows into the lagoons, paving them with discarded drink cans (and dead coral). Their remarkable free-money economy, Theroux reports, has turned a race of warriors and master navigators into a tubby, profligate people shoving supermarket carts full of junk food."

    Here from another writer:

    https://www.leeabbamonte.com/oceania/differences-samoa-american-samoa.html

    "However, the main difference I myself have observed is the people. The people of Samoa are some of the most warm and welcoming people I have ever encountered. Their selfless culture makes you want to be a better person. They have been influenced by the west in some ways but have really maintained their own identity and culture in my eyes. "

    "American Samoa has clearly been influenced by its US affiliation not that there’s anything wrong with that.[...] Other influences are loud (bad) music and apparently there is a big crystal meth problem on American Samoa. In fact, we were asked if we wanted to buy some “ice”. We didn’t know what that meant and had to look it up. It was just assumed that was why we had come to American Samoa-true story!"

    "I really did love Samoa if that’s not obvious to anyone who followed my trip or has read my posts. However, I did not love American Samoa either time I have visited and I likely will not return."

    The Western Samoa (now Samoa) turned out much better in the end than American Samoa. Paul Theroux hated American Samoa iirc.

    Well, if the dumb and dull Paul Theroux hated American Samoa, then that is a high mark in its favor.

    Let’s compare American Samoa to Western Samoa. The former has a higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rate, lower death rate, and nearly double the per capita income.

    And apropos to the current topic, Western Samoa suffered a grisly measles outbreak last year due to the low vaccine rate among the superstitious natives. More than sixty people have died.

    American Samoa also recently suffered a measles outbreak, but since they have a better than 99 percent vaccination rate, no one has died from it yet. Only a few travelers have been infected.

    I can see why the witless Paul Theroux disliked American Samoa so much. Plainly, “in the end”, as Utu put it, things turned out so much better in Western Samoa. At least the residents in Western Samoa aren’t eating so much American junk food and listening to loud music.

    • Replies: @Anon
    Theroux may be a misanthrope, but that was a really funny book!

    Are you Australian, by any chance? Theroux did such a number on Australia I still don't think I'd ever go there.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Let’s compare American Samoa to Western Samoa. The former has a higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rate, lower death rate, and nearly double the per capita income.
     
    Most of them are living in L.A. Perhaps Steve could interview one for you.


    One area in which Western does better is association football. WS's biggest win was 8-0, vs AS. AS, in turn, holds Fifa's record for the worst blowout ever, vs Australia. Their record win was against Wallis and Futuna, which isn't even in Fifa.


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1wg9ox9F7Vw
  30. @Altai
    I should point out, these numbers come from 8 samples, only one of whom is Asian. But the previous work on IFITM3 makes it more interesting as a possible scenario.

    Though there is an extensive literature on variants in ACE2 being significantly different in Chinese populations versus European ones. In these cases linked to hypertension risks.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16866021
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16822235
    https://academic.oup.com/ajh/article/25/2/216/2282074
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6195726
    https://www.nature.com/articles/1002090

    And so on…

  31. @Pincher Martin

    The Western Samoa (now Samoa) turned out much better in the end than American Samoa. Paul Theroux hated American Samoa iirc.
     
    Well, if the dumb and dull Paul Theroux hated American Samoa, then that is a high mark in its favor.

    Let's compare American Samoa to Western Samoa. The former has a higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rate, lower death rate, and nearly double the per capita income.

    And apropos to the current topic, Western Samoa suffered a grisly measles outbreak last year due to the low vaccine rate among the superstitious natives. More than sixty people have died.

    American Samoa also recently suffered a measles outbreak, but since they have a better than 99 percent vaccination rate, no one has died from it yet. Only a few travelers have been infected.

    I can see why the witless Paul Theroux disliked American Samoa so much. Plainly, "in the end", as Utu put it, things turned out so much better in Western Samoa. At least the residents in Western Samoa aren't eating so much American junk food and listening to loud music.

    Theroux may be a misanthrope, but that was a really funny book!

    Are you Australian, by any chance? Theroux did such a number on Australia I still don’t think I’d ever go there.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Are you Australian, by any chance? Theroux did such a number on Australia I still don’t think I’d ever go there.
     
    No, but I wouldn't hold that against Theroux even if I was Australian.

    Besides, Theroux couldn't have committed any worse of an atrocity against Australians than he did against himself in that cringeworthy exchange he had with his old pal and mentor V.S. Naipaul. What an embarrassment that was.
  32. @Anonymous
    The modern elites would rather have tens of thousands dead than tolerate proof that a motivated, competent government can control who does and doesn't enter its territory.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Wait'll he sees the actual symbol of the Fabians, and realizes that this wasn't an externality or a side effect.
  33. Well, if the dumb and dull Paul Theroux hated American Samoa, then that is a high mark in its favor.

    I have read a number of Theroux’s travel book and some of his other works too. He is anything but dumb and dull. Some of my favorites the The Mosquito Coast, Kingdom By The Sea, and the semiautobiographical My Secret History.

    A consistent theme in Theroux’s travel books is that he has read everything written before and tries to see what earlier writers saw and gives his often perceptive opinions.

    For example in his 1980’s book about England he tracks part of the itinerary of J.B. Priestley’s An English Journey, written in the 1930’s and also George Orwell’s The Road To Wigan Pier from the same era, and actually interviews an elderly woman in Wigan who might have been the woman Orwell saw from a train poking a stick up a blocked drain pipe, the twist being that her memory of her youth was of happy times, not of despair.

    Never dumb, and certainly never dull, though the book about his travels through the Pacific The Happy Isles of Oceania: Paddling the Pacific in which he paddles in his folding canvas canoe through numerous Polynesian isles is not one of his most popular. He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin’s paradise and Margaret Mead’s early works.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Pincher Martin

    I have read a number of Theroux’s travel book and some of his other works too.
     
    Good for you. So have I. Or at least I did many years ago when I read more trash than I'm willing to read today.

    Theroux is dumb and dull. His travelogues are lazy and forgettable. His opinions are cliched leftisms for the most part with the occasional nod to some non-PC thought just to keep his readers off guard, but which he will never follow through to their logical end.

    Never dumb, and certainly never dull, though the book about his travels through the Pacific The Happy Isles of Oceania: Paddling the Pacific in which he paddles in his folding canvas canoe through numerous Polynesian isles is not one of his most popular. He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin’s paradise and Margaret Mead’s early works.
     
    I read The Happy Isles of Oceania when it first came out. I was living in Hawaii at the time and I still can't remember a damn thing about it, other than a funny line he made about the men in a Oahu strip joint. But your take - "He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin’s paradise and Margaret Mead’s early works" - perfectly encapsulates why I can't stand him.
    , @Jack D
    I read part of his book about traveling in the American South, "Deep South". It was completely predictable Leftist drivel. Southern whites are sullen bigots and love guns too much. Blacks are vibrant and wonderful - they preach the Gospel and cook soul food. He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.
    , @kihowi
    What do previous writers have to do with travel literature? You either honestly write about what you experience, or you don't.

    The moment someone is described as "well read" in fiction usually happens five minutes before I realize that they can only see reality through the lens of what writers have told them to feel about it. Making an effort not to fool yourself and stay away from wishful thinking and then looking at reality is worth memorizing 1000 books. "Literary" travel literature is especially worthless. You're better off just watching a YouTube video. At least that happened.
  34. A quibble: Poyer seems to’ve been a commander, not a general.

    (Is perhaps McLane a proud veteran of the army, ignorant of, or out to downplay, the navy?)

  35. @Jonathan Mason

    Well, if the dumb and dull Paul Theroux hated American Samoa, then that is a high mark in its favor.
     
    I have read a number of Theroux's travel book and some of his other works too. He is anything but dumb and dull. Some of my favorites the The Mosquito Coast, Kingdom By The Sea, and the semiautobiographical My Secret History.

    A consistent theme in Theroux's travel books is that he has read everything written before and tries to see what earlier writers saw and gives his often perceptive opinions.

    For example in his 1980's book about England he tracks part of the itinerary of J.B. Priestley's An English Journey, written in the 1930's and also George Orwell's The Road To Wigan Pier from the same era, and actually interviews an elderly woman in Wigan who might have been the woman Orwell saw from a train poking a stick up a blocked drain pipe, the twist being that her memory of her youth was of happy times, not of despair.

    Never dumb, and certainly never dull, though the book about his travels through the Pacific The Happy Isles of Oceania: Paddling the Pacific in which he paddles in his folding canvas canoe through numerous Polynesian isles is not one of his most popular. He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin's paradise and Margaret Mead's early works.

    I have read a number of Theroux’s travel book and some of his other works too.

    Good for you. So have I. Or at least I did many years ago when I read more trash than I’m willing to read today.

    Theroux is dumb and dull. His travelogues are lazy and forgettable. His opinions are cliched leftisms for the most part with the occasional nod to some non-PC thought just to keep his readers off guard, but which he will never follow through to their logical end.

    Never dumb, and certainly never dull, though the book about his travels through the Pacific The Happy Isles of Oceania: Paddling the Pacific in which he paddles in his folding canvas canoe through numerous Polynesian isles is not one of his most popular. He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin’s paradise and Margaret Mead’s early works.

    I read The Happy Isles of Oceania when it first came out. I was living in Hawaii at the time and I still can’t remember a damn thing about it, other than a funny line he made about the men in a Oahu strip joint. But your take – “He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin’s paradise and Margaret Mead’s early works” – perfectly encapsulates why I can’t stand him.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    I read The Happy Isles of Oceania when it first came out.
     
    I managed to slog my way through that book.

    I kept thinking, "Why doesn't the writer do himself and his readers a favor and flip his kayak upside-down?"
  36. @Jonathan Mason

    Well, if the dumb and dull Paul Theroux hated American Samoa, then that is a high mark in its favor.
     
    I have read a number of Theroux's travel book and some of his other works too. He is anything but dumb and dull. Some of my favorites the The Mosquito Coast, Kingdom By The Sea, and the semiautobiographical My Secret History.

    A consistent theme in Theroux's travel books is that he has read everything written before and tries to see what earlier writers saw and gives his often perceptive opinions.

    For example in his 1980's book about England he tracks part of the itinerary of J.B. Priestley's An English Journey, written in the 1930's and also George Orwell's The Road To Wigan Pier from the same era, and actually interviews an elderly woman in Wigan who might have been the woman Orwell saw from a train poking a stick up a blocked drain pipe, the twist being that her memory of her youth was of happy times, not of despair.

    Never dumb, and certainly never dull, though the book about his travels through the Pacific The Happy Isles of Oceania: Paddling the Pacific in which he paddles in his folding canvas canoe through numerous Polynesian isles is not one of his most popular. He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin's paradise and Margaret Mead's early works.

    I read part of his book about traveling in the American South, “Deep South”. It was completely predictable Leftist drivel. Southern whites are sullen bigots and love guns too much. Blacks are vibrant and wonderful – they preach the Gospel and cook soul food. He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    I have never thought of Theroux as a political writer. As far as I recall he portrays southern whites quite sympathetically and touches on some of the same areas as Trump regarding exporting of manufacturing jobs by greedy corporations.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2015/oct/23/paul-theroux-journey-america-deep-south

    For a book that is even less political The Lost Continent: Travels in Small-Town America by Bill Bryson is somewhat amusing (as I recall).

    Also recommended American Notes (1842) Charles Dickens:

    http://www.online-literature.com/dickens/americannotes/

    Democracy in America: Alexis de Tocqueville

    http://www.gutenberg.org/files/815/815-h/815-h.htm
    , @Pincher Martin
    As I remember, that was the consensus view among book critics of Theroux's book on the south. I didn't read it because by the time it was published I was already bored of the man.

    I just reread some of Naipaul's comments on Theroux. Like most of Naipaul's personal asides, they are vicious and bitchy, but I think they accurately describe his fellow writer:


    'After he [Theroux] left [Africa] in 1966, he was an absolute bore. I wrote a very ironical letter to him thinking this would put an end to those letters... But it never did. It was not important, I think. Probably these things helped to give one a reputation... Theroux didn't know what he thought about anything. He had no views. It's as though he didn't know he was in Africa. But he pestered me with letters, long letters being written to me every two or three weeks at a certain time.'
     
    That sounds like the Theroux I remember. I recall reading page after page in some of his travelogues where he goes on long asides that have nothing to do with the land he is traveling in and yet also have no inherent interest as general commentary.
    , @Flip
    I agree about Deep South. He was almost a race realist in an earlier book about Africa called Dark Star Safari.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.
     
    Southerners were considered the salt of the earth as long as they voted yellow-dog. Reading to do so is really their only sin.

    Don't take the rest of it seriously. We're they to return to the fold, all would be forgiven. That happened in 1976.
  37. @Pincher Martin

    The Western Samoa (now Samoa) turned out much better in the end than American Samoa. Paul Theroux hated American Samoa iirc.
     
    Well, if the dumb and dull Paul Theroux hated American Samoa, then that is a high mark in its favor.

    Let's compare American Samoa to Western Samoa. The former has a higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rate, lower death rate, and nearly double the per capita income.

    And apropos to the current topic, Western Samoa suffered a grisly measles outbreak last year due to the low vaccine rate among the superstitious natives. More than sixty people have died.

    American Samoa also recently suffered a measles outbreak, but since they have a better than 99 percent vaccination rate, no one has died from it yet. Only a few travelers have been infected.

    I can see why the witless Paul Theroux disliked American Samoa so much. Plainly, "in the end", as Utu put it, things turned out so much better in Western Samoa. At least the residents in Western Samoa aren't eating so much American junk food and listening to loud music.

    Let’s compare American Samoa to Western Samoa. The former has a higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rate, lower death rate, and nearly double the per capita income.

    Most of them are living in L.A. Perhaps Steve could interview one for you.

    One area in which Western does better is association football. WS’s biggest win was 8-0, vs AS. AS, in turn, holds Fifa’s record for the worst blowout ever, vs Australia. Their record win was against Wallis and Futuna, which isn’t even in Fifa.

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin

    Most of them are living in L.A. Perhaps Steve could interview one for you.
     
    I have never in my life heard of a Pacific Islander who had anything to say that was worth listening to.

    They're good fighters, good football players, and great eaters, but that's about where their skill set ends.

    One area in which Western does better is association football.
     
    So Western Samoa has association football, less junk food, softer music, and Paul Theroux's imprimatur.

    American Samoa, on the other hand, has American professional football, louder music, more junk food, longer life spans, fewer diseases, lower infant mortality, and it keeps the Paul Theroux's of the world at arm's length.

    I got to say that it looks like American Samoa wins in landslide.
  38. Anonymous[358] • Disclaimer says:

    CDC finally does first federal quarantine order issued in 50 years…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-confirms-first-cases-coronavirus-countries-ignore-who

    This measure should’ve been implemented many days ago but better late than never. Late quarantining does actually help.

    Also… black comedy that the private USA airline corporations are responsible for shutting off flight traffic to China —- the pilots union was in rebellion. Also the ticket demand market for the flights dried up and made the flights uneconomical.

    USgov obviously hesitated due to GDP concerns in an election year. But maybe Trump and his inner circle have known for weeks that the virus is much more deadly for Asians. The death rate outside China is very low right now which seems to confirm.

    But ultimately it’s fear that freezes up an economy. The usgov non-response has stoked fear. This shit reminds of the prevent defense in football. It’s questionable strategy.

  39. @Reg Cæsar

    Let’s compare American Samoa to Western Samoa. The former has a higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rate, lower death rate, and nearly double the per capita income.
     
    Most of them are living in L.A. Perhaps Steve could interview one for you.


    One area in which Western does better is association football. WS's biggest win was 8-0, vs AS. AS, in turn, holds Fifa's record for the worst blowout ever, vs Australia. Their record win was against Wallis and Futuna, which isn't even in Fifa.


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1wg9ox9F7Vw

    Most of them are living in L.A. Perhaps Steve could interview one for you.

    I have never in my life heard of a Pacific Islander who had anything to say that was worth listening to.

    They’re good fighters, good football players, and great eaters, but that’s about where their skill set ends.

    One area in which Western does better is association football.

    So Western Samoa has association football, less junk food, softer music, and Paul Theroux’s imprimatur.

    American Samoa, on the other hand, has American professional football, louder music, more junk food, longer life spans, fewer diseases, lower infant mortality, and it keeps the Paul Theroux’s of the world at arm’s length.

    I got to say that it looks like American Samoa wins in landslide.

    • Replies: @utu
    The society of Samoa is more traditional than American Samoa for various reasons including the remnants of German laws that guaranteed communal property and less exposure to the benefits and ills of American culture and philosophy of life.

    Here are some stats:
    _________Samoa________ American Samoa
    GDP (PPP) 5,700_____11.200
    Growth rate +2.5%_______-1.9%
    Unemployment 5.2%_____23.8%
    Life expectancy 75_______72.7
    Infant mortality. 15.2_____10.8
    Suicide mortality 6.89____5.9
    Homicide rate 3.1______5.4
    Literacy rate 99.1%_____97%
    , @sb
    Samoa is a rugby country.-the number who play soccer is miniscule
  40. Anonymous[358] • Disclaimer says:

    The Canadian bioweapons lab to Wuhan bioweapons lab connection is freaky deaky.

    Seems like the possibilities are

    1. Accidental release
    2. Deliberate release by an overpopulation radical.
    3. Deliberate release by a committed anticommunist (attempt to topple the chicom gov)
    4. Deliberate release by a compromised scientist (operative of a foreign gov)

    So someone angry about Hong Kong? Fentanyl? Maybe Xi’s power grab?

    If it’s a deliberate release it’s hugely successful as an attack on the chicom regime. Massive kick in the balls.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    If the CCP has the slightest inkling that the 'deliberate release' hypothesis had merit, it will go down as yet another smart-ass clandestine piece of chicanery that will come back to bite its perpetrators on the arse.

    That said, it's also been something of a damp squib: the information landscape is very very different from how it was during the last manufactured hysteria (SARS), and a lot more people are aware that it's bullshit.

    During SARS, 'messaging' was deliberately constructed to encourage people to conflate 'cases' with 'deaths'; even people of median intelligence won't fall for that trick twice.

    So if the 'on purpose' thing is real, the death toll from the inevitable blowback (which may be 10 years in the making) will be largely symbolic - just as the pissy death toll from the last big kick in the West's taint (Blowback Day, when those 'command, control and communications infrastructure' buildings in some US city fell down, for some reason) was orders of magnitude lower than the accumulated grief visited on the Arab people by a century of malign Western interference.
  41. @Jonathan Mason

    Well, if the dumb and dull Paul Theroux hated American Samoa, then that is a high mark in its favor.
     
    I have read a number of Theroux's travel book and some of his other works too. He is anything but dumb and dull. Some of my favorites the The Mosquito Coast, Kingdom By The Sea, and the semiautobiographical My Secret History.

    A consistent theme in Theroux's travel books is that he has read everything written before and tries to see what earlier writers saw and gives his often perceptive opinions.

    For example in his 1980's book about England he tracks part of the itinerary of J.B. Priestley's An English Journey, written in the 1930's and also George Orwell's The Road To Wigan Pier from the same era, and actually interviews an elderly woman in Wigan who might have been the woman Orwell saw from a train poking a stick up a blocked drain pipe, the twist being that her memory of her youth was of happy times, not of despair.

    Never dumb, and certainly never dull, though the book about his travels through the Pacific The Happy Isles of Oceania: Paddling the Pacific in which he paddles in his folding canvas canoe through numerous Polynesian isles is not one of his most popular. He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin's paradise and Margaret Mead's early works.

    What do previous writers have to do with travel literature? You either honestly write about what you experience, or you don’t.

    The moment someone is described as “well read” in fiction usually happens five minutes before I realize that they can only see reality through the lens of what writers have told them to feel about it. Making an effort not to fool yourself and stay away from wishful thinking and then looking at reality is worth memorizing 1000 books. “Literary” travel literature is especially worthless. You’re better off just watching a YouTube video. At least that happened.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    What do previous writers have to do with travel literature? You either honestly write about what you experience, or you don’t.
     
    That is an interesting point of view, but I think it adds more to the picture to know what has been written about a place before and then compare your own experience and see how the place has changed. In the case of Wigan, I would think that Orwell and Theroux are the only writers of any significance who have been there are written about it other than in connection with its soccer and rugby teams, so their comments and opinions,although 50 years apart, are inherently of interest.

    I am sure that part of the reason why Theroux put Wigan on his itinerary was to evaluate how much of Orwell's account was truth and how much hyperbole and to see what was the same and what had changed. He would not be the first to do so.

    ( I have been to Wigan a couple of times, but on both occasions it was just to meet someone.)

  42. @Anonymous
    The modern elites would rather have tens of thousands dead than tolerate proof that a motivated, competent government can control who does and doesn't enter its territory.

    TVA really good looking young man, vital, optimistic, nice, explained in German TV with a smiling face, the virus causes only trouble for the old and sick! – So – no need to worry folks, everything is just fine!

    • Replies: @Altai
    I wonder if somebody can ask the German finance minister if the virus kills enough pensioners will the 'need' for more highly skilled kebab technicians abate.
  43. @Jack D
    I read part of his book about traveling in the American South, "Deep South". It was completely predictable Leftist drivel. Southern whites are sullen bigots and love guns too much. Blacks are vibrant and wonderful - they preach the Gospel and cook soul food. He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.

    I have never thought of Theroux as a political writer. As far as I recall he portrays southern whites quite sympathetically and touches on some of the same areas as Trump regarding exporting of manufacturing jobs by greedy corporations.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2015/oct/23/paul-theroux-journey-america-deep-south

    For a book that is even less political The Lost Continent: Travels in Small-Town America by Bill Bryson is somewhat amusing (as I recall).

    Also recommended American Notes (1842) Charles Dickens:

    http://www.online-literature.com/dickens/americannotes/

    Democracy in America: Alexis de Tocqueville

    http://www.gutenberg.org/files/815/815-h/815-h.htm

  44. @Anon
    Theroux may be a misanthrope, but that was a really funny book!

    Are you Australian, by any chance? Theroux did such a number on Australia I still don't think I'd ever go there.

    Are you Australian, by any chance? Theroux did such a number on Australia I still don’t think I’d ever go there.

    No, but I wouldn’t hold that against Theroux even if I was Australian.

    Besides, Theroux couldn’t have committed any worse of an atrocity against Australians than he did against himself in that cringeworthy exchange he had with his old pal and mentor V.S. Naipaul. What an embarrassment that was.

  45. @Lurker

    Men are 3 times as likely to get it, and men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers that give you #2019nCoV
     
    All those M to F trannies must be breathing a sigh of relief.

    Sadly the reason is because the ACE2 gene is on the X chromosome. So male odds of being homozygous for risk variants is higher than for women who obviously have two X chromosomes.

    No amount of HRT is going to fix that.

  46. Chinese employee of German company is first confirmed superspreader. He infected 6 German coworkers, one of them infected his child, which seems to be the first double-transmission outside of China.

    Meanwhile Harvard’s Dr. Eric reports there may be HIV insertions into 2019NCorona.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1223305946723704832

    • Replies: @Altai
    It was done with BLAST and concerned very short sequences that could have aligned by chance or due to a some characteristic of the sequence like a repetitive nature that isn't highly diagnostic. BLAST gives crazy results all the time if you aren't careful using it.

    It may also be that these sequences are present in many viruses but are assigned as HIV-1 because the only reference on library with that sequence is HIV-1.

    Though I find it interesting that the first AIDs clinic in China by MSF was set up in Hubei.
    https://www.msf.org/msf-open-aids-clinic-hubei

    Maybe the first human infected was HIV-positive and was immuno-compromised and that's why they were infected? And the virus mixed with HIV.

    , @El Dato

    Meanwhile Harvard’s Dr. Eric reports there may be HIV insertions into 2019NCorona.
     


    Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing
    Public health scientist
    👨🏻‍🔬
    / Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Harvard ‘07 + Johns Hopkins ‘04 / Taught 15yrs HarvardSPH / NYT-feat. pharma whistleblower

     

    Dr. Feigl Ding should maybe explain whether he is looking for noise and working a bit too hard here to get published.

    Why should there be "HIV insertions" and what would the virus do with it (would it even function? Would it bind better to some cells?)


    Taken together, our findings suggest unconventional evolution of 2019-nCoV that warrants further investigation. Our work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV and has implications on the pathogenesis and diagnosis of this virus.
     
    I thought i came via bat or snake? Or does it mean that virus just up and grabs a bit of stuff from a completely alien RNA virus??

    Come clear with your academic bull Mr DingDong, you think this is a Greg Bear novel or something?

  47. @Dieter Kief
    TVA really good looking young man, vital, optimistic, nice, explained in German TV with a smiling face, the virus causes only trouble for the old and sick! - So - no need to worry folks, everything is just fine!

    I wonder if somebody can ask the German finance minister if the virus kills enough pensioners will the ‘need’ for more highly skilled kebab technicians abate.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    Not to forget the highly qualified jailologists***** and, of special importance now - - - the foreign drug experts. Sigh.

    ***** the Swiss keep orderly files and find that a whopping 80% of their prison-inmates are people with foreign backgrounds or foreigners.

  48. @El Dato
    Well, the virus has been disinterred from Icelandic patients, I don't think aspirin was mentioned, however there was a lot of talk about how its surface proteins glom on human cell surfaces.

    But then, what are we talking here..


    The Journal of the American Medical Association suggested a dose of 1,000 milligrams every three hours, the equivalent of almost 25 standard 325-milligram aspirin tablets in 24 hours. This is about twice the daily dosage generally considered safe today.
     
    Yeah, don't do that.

    Although he doubted that more than a small number of deaths could be attributed to aspirin overdose, Dr. David M. Morens, an epidemiologist with the National Institutes of Health, said the paper was valuable in that “it makes an attempt to look at environmental or host factors that may be involved.” He said, “We haven’t been able to explain all the deaths in young adults with the virus itself.”

    Dr. Starko was hesitant to estimate how many deaths aspirin overdose could have caused, but suggested that military archives might be one place to look. “I’m hoping others will follow up,” she said, “by examining available treatment records.”
     

    So, let's say a few hundred dead? Not excact an onramp to THE HOLOCAUST.

    Aspirin was fabricated by the German company Bayer…
     
    Still is.

    “Bayer’s patent on aspirin expired, so many companies rushed in to make a profit and greatly increased the supply; this coincided with the Spanish flu; and the symptoms of aspirin poisoning were not known at the time.” – Wiki

  49. @Jack D
    I read part of his book about traveling in the American South, "Deep South". It was completely predictable Leftist drivel. Southern whites are sullen bigots and love guns too much. Blacks are vibrant and wonderful - they preach the Gospel and cook soul food. He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.

    As I remember, that was the consensus view among book critics of Theroux’s book on the south. I didn’t read it because by the time it was published I was already bored of the man.

    I just reread some of Naipaul’s comments on Theroux. Like most of Naipaul’s personal asides, they are vicious and bitchy, but I think they accurately describe his fellow writer:

    ‘After he [Theroux] left [Africa] in 1966, he was an absolute bore. I wrote a very ironical letter to him thinking this would put an end to those letters… But it never did. It was not important, I think. Probably these things helped to give one a reputation… Theroux didn’t know what he thought about anything. He had no views. It’s as though he didn’t know he was in Africa. But he pestered me with letters, long letters being written to me every two or three weeks at a certain time.’

    That sounds like the Theroux I remember. I recall reading page after page in some of his travelogues where he goes on long asides that have nothing to do with the land he is traveling in and yet also have no inherent interest as general commentary.

  50. @Altai
    I wonder if somebody can ask the German finance minister if the virus kills enough pensioners will the 'need' for more highly skilled kebab technicians abate.

    Not to forget the highly qualified jailologists***** and, of special importance now – – – the foreign drug experts. Sigh.

    ***** the Swiss keep orderly files and find that a whopping 80% of their prison-inmates are people with foreign backgrounds or foreigners.

    • Replies: @Altai
    Yes, but a lot of them (Most of them?) are descendants of 90s/00s immigrants from the Balkans so it's okay because they're white. (According to people from countries whose immigrants aren't white and Americans who can't tell the difference between different European ethnicities.)

    I believe the best foreign drug experts come from Nigeria.

  51. From the Lancet:

    “ In our baseline scenario, we estimated that R0 was 2.68 with an epidemic doubling time of 6.4 days. We estimated that 75,815 individuals individuals had been infected in Greater Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020.”

    So the Chinese were probably underreporting by ~38 fold, like I suggested days ago. On Jan 25 their infection number was 2,000 v 76k Lancet estimate.

    Now it is 9k v 152k using the Lancet’s estimate and doubling, and Lancet is only estimating Wuhan, not all of China.

    “ We also estimated that Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, had imported 461 (227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan”

    Those are 95% confidence intervals after the main estimate.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

  52. @Desiderius
    https://twitter.com/relicn0cer/status/1223235287633072131?s=20

    Wait’ll he sees the actual symbol of the Fabians, and realizes that this wasn’t an externality or a side effect.

  53. @Pincher Martin

    Most of them are living in L.A. Perhaps Steve could interview one for you.
     
    I have never in my life heard of a Pacific Islander who had anything to say that was worth listening to.

    They're good fighters, good football players, and great eaters, but that's about where their skill set ends.

    One area in which Western does better is association football.
     
    So Western Samoa has association football, less junk food, softer music, and Paul Theroux's imprimatur.

    American Samoa, on the other hand, has American professional football, louder music, more junk food, longer life spans, fewer diseases, lower infant mortality, and it keeps the Paul Theroux's of the world at arm's length.

    I got to say that it looks like American Samoa wins in landslide.

    The society of Samoa is more traditional than American Samoa for various reasons including the remnants of German laws that guaranteed communal property and less exposure to the benefits and ills of American culture and philosophy of life.

    Here are some stats:
    _________Samoa________ American Samoa
    GDP (PPP) 5,700_____11.200
    Growth rate +2.5%_______-1.9%
    Unemployment 5.2%_____23.8%
    Life expectancy 75_______72.7
    Infant mortality. 15.2_____10.8
    Suicide mortality 6.89____5.9
    Homicide rate 3.1______5.4
    Literacy rate 99.1%_____97%

    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    I think some of those stats are wrong. For example, you appear to have switched the life expectancy figures for the two places.

    Other stats, like annual growth rates, are so volatile that a single figure for one year won't give us a good indication of relative wealth. Instead, it's a better measurement of the recent trajectory of the economy.

    For example, the IMF has the following GDP growth rates over the last three years for Western Samoa and the Bureau of Economic Analysis has the same figures for American Samoa.

    Western Samoa

    2016 - 7.2%

    2017 - 2.7%

    2018 - 0.9%

    American Samoa

    2016 - (-2.5)

    2017 - (-5.8)

    2018 - 2.2

    So Western Samoa grew like gangbusters in 2016, but slowed to a crawl in 2018.

    American Samoa had a couple of terrible years in 2016 and 2017, but a better year than Western Samoa in 2018. Why that is, I have no idea.

    But the per capita income figures I gave earlier are a more accurate and less volatile assessment of relative wealth when comparing the two places. By that measurement, American Samoa has a clear advantage over Western Samoa.

    I'm not sure what to make of those unemployment figures. They don't look believable. But I'll look into it.

  54. @Dieter Kief
    Not to forget the highly qualified jailologists***** and, of special importance now - - - the foreign drug experts. Sigh.

    ***** the Swiss keep orderly files and find that a whopping 80% of their prison-inmates are people with foreign backgrounds or foreigners.

    Yes, but a lot of them (Most of them?) are descendants of 90s/00s immigrants from the Balkans so it’s okay because they’re white. (According to people from countries whose immigrants aren’t white and Americans who can’t tell the difference between different European ethnicities.)

    I believe the best foreign drug experts come from Nigeria.

  55. @Jake
    Lesson #1: contrary to the Libertarian religion, nations/provinces/cities/peoples that are 'traders' - meaning, their identity is in commerce, not in land and the people living on the land, and their politics are based on shipping, their 'nobility' the richest traders - will always be more viciously amoral (love of money as root of all evil, and such) than counterparts based on land and extended family.


    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics. Swap all the American Samoans for the Western Samoans, and the same tragedy would have unfolded in Western Samoa, because Western Samoa's reigning culture would have remained the same.

    Now the really astute and brave of you can, and should, apply this knowledge to comparative studies that matter more to the world than Samoa.

    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics.

    What superficial nonsense. This has to be a troll post.

    “Ethnic diversity has long been considered as one of the factors explaining why the severe forms of dengue are more prevalent in Southeast Asia than elsewhere … The researchers identified two genes related to blood vessel inflammation that confer risk of severe dengue, and four genes related to metabolism that affect risk of classic dengue fever. Further experiments showed that variations in the genes led to observable changes in cellular dynamics. Additionally, a comparison with the genetic databases of individuals of African and European origin showed that the prevalence of these variations varies based on ethnic ancestry.

    https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-area/press-documents/genetics-makes-asians-and-europeans-susceptible-severe-dengue

    Now the really astute and brave of you can, and should, apply this knowledge to comparative studies that matter more to the world than Samoa

    Har har har

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar


    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics.
     
    What superficial nonsense. This has to be a troll post.
     
    Of course. Any fool can see that North Koreans are genetically closer to Afghans and Ugandans than to those people who coincidentally share their peninsula, language, and alphabet. Who themselves are more closely related to Maltese, Kuwaitis, and Bahamians.


    Same with Yemen and Oman. Poland and Ukraine. Havana and Miami. Huge genetic clines. Cultural differences, trivial.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita


    https://en.actualitix.com/doc/maps/wld/world-map-gdp-per-capita-by-country.jpg

  56. @utu
    The society of Samoa is more traditional than American Samoa for various reasons including the remnants of German laws that guaranteed communal property and less exposure to the benefits and ills of American culture and philosophy of life.

    Here are some stats:
    _________Samoa________ American Samoa
    GDP (PPP) 5,700_____11.200
    Growth rate +2.5%_______-1.9%
    Unemployment 5.2%_____23.8%
    Life expectancy 75_______72.7
    Infant mortality. 15.2_____10.8
    Suicide mortality 6.89____5.9
    Homicide rate 3.1______5.4
    Literacy rate 99.1%_____97%

    I think some of those stats are wrong. For example, you appear to have switched the life expectancy figures for the two places.

    Other stats, like annual growth rates, are so volatile that a single figure for one year won’t give us a good indication of relative wealth. Instead, it’s a better measurement of the recent trajectory of the economy.

    For example, the IMF has the following GDP growth rates over the last three years for Western Samoa and the Bureau of Economic Analysis has the same figures for American Samoa.

    Western Samoa

    2016 – 7.2%

    2017 – 2.7%

    2018 – 0.9%

    American Samoa

    2016 – (-2.5)

    2017 – (-5.8)

    2018 – 2.2

    So Western Samoa grew like gangbusters in 2016, but slowed to a crawl in 2018.

    American Samoa had a couple of terrible years in 2016 and 2017, but a better year than Western Samoa in 2018. Why that is, I have no idea.

    But the per capita income figures I gave earlier are a more accurate and less volatile assessment of relative wealth when comparing the two places. By that measurement, American Samoa has a clear advantage over Western Samoa.

    I’m not sure what to make of those unemployment figures. They don’t look believable. But I’ll look into it.

  57. @kihowi
    What do previous writers have to do with travel literature? You either honestly write about what you experience, or you don't.

    The moment someone is described as "well read" in fiction usually happens five minutes before I realize that they can only see reality through the lens of what writers have told them to feel about it. Making an effort not to fool yourself and stay away from wishful thinking and then looking at reality is worth memorizing 1000 books. "Literary" travel literature is especially worthless. You're better off just watching a YouTube video. At least that happened.

    What do previous writers have to do with travel literature? You either honestly write about what you experience, or you don’t.

    That is an interesting point of view, but I think it adds more to the picture to know what has been written about a place before and then compare your own experience and see how the place has changed. In the case of Wigan, I would think that Orwell and Theroux are the only writers of any significance who have been there are written about it other than in connection with its soccer and rugby teams, so their comments and opinions,although 50 years apart, are inherently of interest.

    I am sure that part of the reason why Theroux put Wigan on his itinerary was to evaluate how much of Orwell’s account was truth and how much hyperbole and to see what was the same and what had changed. He would not be the first to do so.

    ( I have been to Wigan a couple of times, but on both occasions it was just to meet someone.)

  58. @Lot
    Chinese employee of German company is first confirmed superspreader. He infected 6 German coworkers, one of them infected his child, which seems to be the first double-transmission outside of China.

    Meanwhile Harvard’s Dr. Eric reports there may be HIV insertions into 2019NCorona.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1223305946723704832

    https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/shacknews/assets/editorial/2016/10/IJnxZ3w.gif

    It was done with BLAST and concerned very short sequences that could have aligned by chance or due to a some characteristic of the sequence like a repetitive nature that isn’t highly diagnostic. BLAST gives crazy results all the time if you aren’t careful using it.

    It may also be that these sequences are present in many viruses but are assigned as HIV-1 because the only reference on library with that sequence is HIV-1.

    Though I find it interesting that the first AIDs clinic in China by MSF was set up in Hubei.
    https://www.msf.org/msf-open-aids-clinic-hubei

    Maybe the first human infected was HIV-positive and was immuno-compromised and that’s why they were infected? And the virus mixed with HIV.

    • Thanks: Lot
    • Replies: @Lot
    “ BLAST gives crazy results all the time if you aren’t careful using it.”

    Seems almost too far out to believe, “Super Bat-SARS With a Creamy HIV Filling!”

    But nobody has yet suggested reasons to be skeptical.

    And a reason to think engineered bioweapon: the Chinese started anti-HIV drugs pretty quick.
    , @Lot
    Below looks like a good debunking to me! Dr. Eric is backing away too.



    This study is crap.

    My comment from another thread. This paper isn't peer reviewed or published. It's just an online journal.

    I've worked pretty closely with gag in my PhD thesis. Gag is the conglomerate protein that gets cut by the protease to generate the hiv capsid, matrix, and carrier proteins. Gp120 is the receptor protein.

    This is a really fucking dumb study and these scientists should be ashamed. Those amino acids are so short. They just went and looked for a virus to match. You can go and blast the amino acids yourself. Just copy and paste from the journal entry into NCBIs BLASTp. I did it and there's hundreds of matches to those sequences. HIV didn't even come up in the first 100. The 4th residue is missing like 6 amino acids. There are conserved regions in viruses. Their "gp120" match compares 6 amino acids out of 850 in the whole protein for example.

    They found 4 sections that were in the new virus but not SARS. They then took these differences and ran them against all known viral proteins. They only looked at proteins with 100% matches, but if you look at the table they didn't match 100% for alignment. So like one is ABCEFG and they match it to an HIV protein that is ABCXYZEFG and they are calling those total matches. There's also tons of viruses that match these tiny sequences, they just noticed all 4 have HIV matches so they ignore the other matches and only looked at HIV.

    Go blast it yourself if you want.
  59. @Pincher Martin

    I have read a number of Theroux’s travel book and some of his other works too.
     
    Good for you. So have I. Or at least I did many years ago when I read more trash than I'm willing to read today.

    Theroux is dumb and dull. His travelogues are lazy and forgettable. His opinions are cliched leftisms for the most part with the occasional nod to some non-PC thought just to keep his readers off guard, but which he will never follow through to their logical end.

    Never dumb, and certainly never dull, though the book about his travels through the Pacific The Happy Isles of Oceania: Paddling the Pacific in which he paddles in his folding canvas canoe through numerous Polynesian isles is not one of his most popular. He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin’s paradise and Margaret Mead’s early works.
     
    I read The Happy Isles of Oceania when it first came out. I was living in Hawaii at the time and I still can't remember a damn thing about it, other than a funny line he made about the men in a Oahu strip joint. But your take - "He laments the loss of innocence since Gaugin’s paradise and Margaret Mead’s early works" - perfectly encapsulates why I can't stand him.

    I read The Happy Isles of Oceania when it first came out.

    I managed to slog my way through that book.

    I kept thinking, “Why doesn’t the writer do himself and his readers a favor and flip his kayak upside-down?”

    • LOL: Pincher Martin
  60. @Divine Right

    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics.
     
    What superficial nonsense. This has to be a troll post.

    "Ethnic diversity has long been considered as one of the factors explaining why the severe forms of dengue are more prevalent in Southeast Asia than elsewhere ... The researchers identified two genes related to blood vessel inflammation that confer risk of severe dengue, and four genes related to metabolism that affect risk of classic dengue fever. Further experiments showed that variations in the genes led to observable changes in cellular dynamics. Additionally, a comparison with the genetic databases of individuals of African and European origin showed that the prevalence of these variations varies based on ethnic ancestry.
     
    https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-area/press-documents/genetics-makes-asians-and-europeans-susceptible-severe-dengue

    Now the really astute and brave of you can, and should, apply this knowledge to comparative studies that matter more to the world than Samoa
     
    Har har har

    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics.

    What superficial nonsense. This has to be a troll post.

    Of course. Any fool can see that North Koreans are genetically closer to Afghans and Ugandans than to those people who coincidentally share their peninsula, language, and alphabet. Who themselves are more closely related to Maltese, Kuwaitis, and Bahamians.

    Same with Yemen and Oman. Poland and Ukraine. Havana and Miami. Huge genetic clines. Cultural differences, trivial.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

    • Replies: @James Forrestal
    And of course, "any fool can see" that Nature vs. Nurture is an entirely binary distinction.

    Das rite.
  61. It read like Ding and others are nearly arguing that this a deliberate thing (“unlikely to be fortuitous”); if this is the case, that wild idea about Beijing trying to punish Hong Kong (and getting hoisted by their own petarded safety standards) gets domesticated.
    ———-
    Antifa have been allowed to take over New York City’s Grand Central Station (by the same crowd that says they’re protecting us from Nazis and Russians). This is supposed to be a sympathetic live feed, I have no idea if it’s any good:

  62. @Jake
    Lesson #1: contrary to the Libertarian religion, nations/provinces/cities/peoples that are 'traders' - meaning, their identity is in commerce, not in land and the people living on the land, and their politics are based on shipping, their 'nobility' the richest traders - will always be more viciously amoral (love of money as root of all evil, and such) than counterparts based on land and extended family.


    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics. Swap all the American Samoans for the Western Samoans, and the same tragedy would have unfolded in Western Samoa, because Western Samoa's reigning culture would have remained the same.

    Now the really astute and brave of you can, and should, apply this knowledge to comparative studies that matter more to the world than Samoa.

    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics.

    Weebs, watch out! I hear this virus infects Asians best, so you guys are in trouble.

  63. @Jack D
    I read part of his book about traveling in the American South, "Deep South". It was completely predictable Leftist drivel. Southern whites are sullen bigots and love guns too much. Blacks are vibrant and wonderful - they preach the Gospel and cook soul food. He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.

    I agree about Deep South. He was almost a race realist in an earlier book about Africa called Dark Star Safari.

  64. It looks like the impeachment is going the only way any thinking person could expect it to go. Plebbit is generating delicious salt, parsed here:
    http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/241798072
    They’re all calling for somebody else to riot. There are the standard leftist calls for violence to public officials, which are never punished or reported.
    This anon probably puts it best:
    it’s like they paid $20 for imax and it was the [worst] movie they’ve ever seen so now they are going to riot.
    There is also a Pinoy who captures a plebbiter bemoaning that this is the angriest he’s ever been in his life, to which the Pinoy responds that this guy must be pretty sheltered to say that.
    Detroit NPR had this pre-recorded bumper, smug verbose triumphant nonsense about “history” and how impeachment is laid out in the Constitution and reserved for only the most serious offenses (which might surprise the Democrats, who had earlier been arguing that it could be over anything). This bumper is supposed to be a non-apology apology for the interruption of regularly scheduled programming in order to continue the error of broadcastimg parliamentary procedure and fatuous speechifying. The automatically rebroadcast bumpers remained, sometimes replaying back to back, even after somebody had the sense to back off and reinsert the regularly scheduled programming at night. It will be very interesting to hear how they respond to the looming acquittal they set themselves up for by relying on a majority Republican body and by refusing to build or present an actual case. I’m predicting Glorious Rossiya and the mood of the country will be blamed.

  65. OT but why is Pago Pago pronounced Pango Pango?

    • Replies: @Anon
    The g sound in Samoan represents a velar nasal, where the back of your tongue touches the soft palate tissue at the back of your throat to stop the airflow through your mouth and send it through your nose. English doesn't have any sound like that between vowels (intervocalic). We do have it before a hard g sound, a so-called velar stop, and we have it at the end of words, so the n in bingo and the g in ping. When you say "ping a friend," the g there is close to the g in Pago Pago. The g there is not like the ng in bingo, which is a velar nasal followed by a hard g, two sequential consonants.

    So the answer is that Samoan needed a letter to represent its velar nasal, and Samoan doesn't have a velar stop (a g), so the letter g was appropriated for the velar nasal. The name is doomed to be mispronounced by English speakers because English doesn't even have that sound between vowels, and there is no way to represent it any better in Roman letters.
    , @Foreign Expert
    Because there is an automatic phonological rule in Samoan that inserts the sound n in front of the g, so there is no need to write it. It’s more efficient. Similarly in Fijian, Nadi is automatically pronounced Nandi. sort of like in English when you write “dink” you don’t need to write dingk.
  66. @Anonymous
    The Canadian bioweapons lab to Wuhan bioweapons lab connection is freaky deaky.

    Seems like the possibilities are

    1. Accidental release
    2. Deliberate release by an overpopulation radical.
    3. Deliberate release by a committed anticommunist (attempt to topple the chicom gov)
    4. Deliberate release by a compromised scientist (operative of a foreign gov)

    So someone angry about Hong Kong? Fentanyl? Maybe Xi's power grab?

    If it's a deliberate release it's hugely successful as an attack on the chicom regime. Massive kick in the balls.

    If the CCP has the slightest inkling that the ‘deliberate release’ hypothesis had merit, it will go down as yet another smart-ass clandestine piece of chicanery that will come back to bite its perpetrators on the arse.

    That said, it’s also been something of a damp squib: the information landscape is very very different from how it was during the last manufactured hysteria (SARS), and a lot more people are aware that it’s bullshit.

    During SARS, ‘messaging’ was deliberately constructed to encourage people to conflate ‘cases’ with ‘deaths’; even people of median intelligence won’t fall for that trick twice.

    So if the ‘on purpose’ thing is real, the death toll from the inevitable blowback (which may be 10 years in the making) will be largely symbolic – just as the pissy death toll from the last big kick in the West’s taint (Blowback Day, when those ‘command, control and communications infrastructure‘ buildings in some US city fell down, for some reason) was orders of magnitude lower than the accumulated grief visited on the Arab people by a century of malign Western interference.

  67. @Altai
    It was done with BLAST and concerned very short sequences that could have aligned by chance or due to a some characteristic of the sequence like a repetitive nature that isn't highly diagnostic. BLAST gives crazy results all the time if you aren't careful using it.

    It may also be that these sequences are present in many viruses but are assigned as HIV-1 because the only reference on library with that sequence is HIV-1.

    Though I find it interesting that the first AIDs clinic in China by MSF was set up in Hubei.
    https://www.msf.org/msf-open-aids-clinic-hubei

    Maybe the first human infected was HIV-positive and was immuno-compromised and that's why they were infected? And the virus mixed with HIV.

    “ BLAST gives crazy results all the time if you aren’t careful using it.”

    Seems almost too far out to believe, “Super Bat-SARS With a Creamy HIV Filling!”

    But nobody has yet suggested reasons to be skeptical.

    And a reason to think engineered bioweapon: the Chinese started anti-HIV drugs pretty quick.

    • Replies: @Altai
    Anti-HIV drugs are really just ARVs, Anti-Retro Viral drugs and will work on plenty of other retro viruses than HIV.

    Virology just isn't that advanced for them to be doing something so subtle and intricate as the genetic modifications alleged with a clear idea of what they would achieve in terms of a specific goal like making a bioweapon.

  68. @Altai
    It was done with BLAST and concerned very short sequences that could have aligned by chance or due to a some characteristic of the sequence like a repetitive nature that isn't highly diagnostic. BLAST gives crazy results all the time if you aren't careful using it.

    It may also be that these sequences are present in many viruses but are assigned as HIV-1 because the only reference on library with that sequence is HIV-1.

    Though I find it interesting that the first AIDs clinic in China by MSF was set up in Hubei.
    https://www.msf.org/msf-open-aids-clinic-hubei

    Maybe the first human infected was HIV-positive and was immuno-compromised and that's why they were infected? And the virus mixed with HIV.

    Below looks like a good debunking to me! Dr. Eric is backing away too.

    [MORE]

    This study is crap.

    My comment from another thread. This paper isn’t peer reviewed or published. It’s just an online journal.

    I’ve worked pretty closely with gag in my PhD thesis. Gag is the conglomerate protein that gets cut by the protease to generate the hiv capsid, matrix, and carrier proteins. Gp120 is the receptor protein.

    This is a really fucking dumb study and these scientists should be ashamed. Those amino acids are so short. They just went and looked for a virus to match. You can go and blast the amino acids yourself. Just copy and paste from the journal entry into NCBIs BLASTp. I did it and there’s hundreds of matches to those sequences. HIV didn’t even come up in the first 100. The 4th residue is missing like 6 amino acids. There are conserved regions in viruses. Their “gp120” match compares 6 amino acids out of 850 in the whole protein for example.

    They found 4 sections that were in the new virus but not SARS. They then took these differences and ran them against all known viral proteins. They only looked at proteins with 100% matches, but if you look at the table they didn’t match 100% for alignment. So like one is ABCEFG and they match it to an HIV protein that is ABCXYZEFG and they are calling those total matches. There’s also tons of viruses that match these tiny sequences, they just noticed all 4 have HIV matches so they ignore the other matches and only looked at HIV.

    Go blast it yourself if you want.

  69. @Jack D
    I read part of his book about traveling in the American South, "Deep South". It was completely predictable Leftist drivel. Southern whites are sullen bigots and love guns too much. Blacks are vibrant and wonderful - they preach the Gospel and cook soul food. He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.

    He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.

    Southerners were considered the salt of the earth as long as they voted yellow-dog. Reading to do so is really their only sin.

    Don’t take the rest of it seriously. We’re they to return to the fold, all would be forgiven. That happened in 1976.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    That should read, "Failing to do so..." Bezos got me again.

    But his name is spelled right, a sign that I'm not on one of his products at the moment!
  70. @Jonathan Mason
    As far as quarantine goes for the current epidemic, it is probably already too little too late. Cases of corona virus are appearing all over the world.

    Had all flights out of China been stopped earlier, the spread might have been prevented, but probably would just have delayed it as it would have spread overland thoughout Asia.

    The best hope is that like a lot of viruses, it is seasonal and likes cold weather, and that the hotter weather coming this summer will stop the spread.

    The current temperature in Wuhan is 45F.

    “As far as quarantine goes for the current epidemic, it is probably already too little too late. Cases of corona virus are appearing all over the world.”

    Quarantine is still useful, even after an epidemic enters a country. That’s how they helped contain the damage of the latest measles outbreak.

    I mean, unless we’re talking about something like AIDS — some sacred cows are far too holy to ever be tethered.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    I mean, unless we’re talking about something like AIDS — some sacred cows are far too holy to ever be tethered.

    AIDS is latent for long periods after the initial infection. The median lapse of time is 11 years. You'd have had to put the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps - and a mess of others too.
  71. And without Steve, I’d never have known…

    Thanks. That was interesting.

  72. @HA
    "As far as quarantine goes for the current epidemic, it is probably already too little too late. Cases of corona virus are appearing all over the world."

    Quarantine is still useful, even after an epidemic enters a country. That's how they helped contain the damage of the latest measles outbreak.

    I mean, unless we're talking about something like AIDS -- some sacred cows are far too holy to ever be tethered.

    I mean, unless we’re talking about something like AIDS — some sacred cows are far too holy to ever be tethered.

    AIDS is latent for long periods after the initial infection. The median lapse of time is 11 years. You’d have had to put the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps – and a mess of others too.

    • Replies: @HA
    "AIDS is latent for long periods after the initial infection. The median lapse of time is 11 years... You’d have had to put the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps"

    And yet, even before we knew that, certain people had decided that quarantine was definitely the wrong approach in the case of AIDS. In other words, my previous statement still holds. (And what a good boy you're being in assuming -- just the way the media and the powers that be want you to -- that any effort to physically prevent people from spreading AIDS must involve putting "the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps", though at least you didn't toss in mention of cattle cars. Even so, I submit you've gulped that Kool-Aid down way too eagerly.)

    In any case, just because a disease is latent doesn't mean others can't be infected. Pretending otherwise calls to mind Typhoid Mary and her insistence that she couldn't possibly be infecting anyone -- and shouldn't be quarantined -- given that she herself showed no outward signs of disease.

    In the case of AIDS, we also have the following to consider:


    A few weeks after people are infected with HIV, they enter a months-long acute phase of infection when levels of virus in the bloodstream spike. If left untreated, this is followed by a decade-long chronic phase of infection that precedes AIDS...Estimating infectivity during acute-phase HIV is notoriously difficult, and only one study, involving heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda, has ever measured it directly. The new study took two complementary approaches to estimate the additional risk of transmission during the acute phase. The first analysis used data from the Rakai study but accounted for differences among the couples that were ignored in earlier studies; the second analysis estimated infection risk from measurements of virus levels throughout the acute phase. Both approaches found that the risk of transmission is indeed higher during the acute phase than the chronic phase, but the amount of additional risk during the acute phase is equivalent to only eight extra months of chronic-phase infectivity.
     
    In other words, quarantine -- or at least preventing people from engaging in sex with others (not to mention sharing needles) at least during the acute phase of the infection -- might well have saved lives or at least initially seemed to have been the more salvific response (however much, as the above link notes, that researchers initially overestimated the infectivity during the acute phase). The most one can say to the contrary is that the matter, as of 2015, is far from settled, and that's not saying much.
  73. @Art Deco
    I mean, unless we’re talking about something like AIDS — some sacred cows are far too holy to ever be tethered.

    AIDS is latent for long periods after the initial infection. The median lapse of time is 11 years. You'd have had to put the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps - and a mess of others too.

    “AIDS is latent for long periods after the initial infection. The median lapse of time is 11 years… You’d have had to put the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps”

    And yet, even before we knew that, certain people had decided that quarantine was definitely the wrong approach in the case of AIDS. In other words, my previous statement still holds. (And what a good boy you’re being in assuming — just the way the media and the powers that be want you to — that any effort to physically prevent people from spreading AIDS must involve putting “the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps”, though at least you didn’t toss in mention of cattle cars. Even so, I submit you’ve gulped that Kool-Aid down way too eagerly.)

    In any case, just because a disease is latent doesn’t mean others can’t be infected. Pretending otherwise calls to mind Typhoid Mary and her insistence that she couldn’t possibly be infecting anyone — and shouldn’t be quarantined — given that she herself showed no outward signs of disease.

    In the case of AIDS, we also have the following to consider:

    A few weeks after people are infected with HIV, they enter a months-long acute phase of infection when levels of virus in the bloodstream spike. If left untreated, this is followed by a decade-long chronic phase of infection that precedes AIDS…Estimating infectivity during acute-phase HIV is notoriously difficult, and only one study, involving heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda, has ever measured it directly. The new study took two complementary approaches to estimate the additional risk of transmission during the acute phase. The first analysis used data from the Rakai study but accounted for differences among the couples that were ignored in earlier studies; the second analysis estimated infection risk from measurements of virus levels throughout the acute phase. Both approaches found that the risk of transmission is indeed higher during the acute phase than the chronic phase, but the amount of additional risk during the acute phase is equivalent to only eight extra months of chronic-phase infectivity.

    In other words, quarantine — or at least preventing people from engaging in sex with others (not to mention sharing needles) at least during the acute phase of the infection — might well have saved lives or at least initially seemed to have been the more salvific response (however much, as the above link notes, that researchers initially overestimated the infectivity during the acute phase). The most one can say to the contrary is that the matter, as of 2015, is far from settled, and that’s not saying much.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    And yet, even before we knew that, certain people had decided that quarantine was definitely the wrong approach in the case of AIDS.

    Public health officials were successfully mau-mau'd by the gay lobby. The bathhouses should have been shut down in 1984 at the latest. Also, the confidentiality requirements in re handling medical records were excessive.

    That having been said, it wasn't until the spring of 1984 that the officials were sure it was a viral illness. The initial cases were men who had had scores (actually, hundreds) of partners, most of them anonymous, so a contact tracing program could never be implemented. By the fall of 1985, public health officials were estimating that as many as 1 million people were infected, so a quarantine program was not an option. They'd cleaned up the blood supply at that point, so getting it from a transfusion was nearly impossible (though I think hemopheliacs were still vulnerable because batches Factor VIII were distilled from thousands of blood donations). Transmission of the virus through ordinary coitus was rare. At that point, the people falling ill were already self-segregated in homosexual subcultures and IV drug user subcultures.
    , @Art Deco
    And what a good boy you’re being in assuming —

    Twerp.



    just the way the media and the powers that be want you to — that any effort to physically prevent people from spreading AIDS must involve putting “the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps”

    That's what it would have required. It was already pervasive in that subpopulation by 1984 and you would have needed to segregate that population, test all of them, and then release selectively. You're talking about 5 million people who would have had to be detained at least until their test results were final.
  74. “ might well have saved lives”

    Not very many I’d say.

    I haven’t looked really closely at the issue, but it seems like basically every urban gay bathhouse regular and heroin needle sharer got HIV, typically lots of slightly different versions in multiple separate infections.

    Measures to stop this really would have required both mass involuntary testing and then physical restraints on the infected and probably too on those whose behavior made them vulnerable.

    Last time this came up, someone posted a memoir essay that said that in the gay centers circa 1980, STDs were considered routine and frequent minor annoyances. Once HIV was in such a mix, mass infection was inevitable. And the needle junkies even more so given they were injecting the virus right into their veins and were generally sickly to begin with.

    • Replies: @HA
    "Measures to stop this really would have required both mass involuntary testing and then physical restraints on the infected and probably too on those whose behavior made them vulnerable."

    Yeah, that's the only possible way. For sure. You, too, somehow forgot to mention cattle cars, but should I assume you're just being delicate?

    And at least we've gone down from "the entire male homosexual population...and a mess of others" in the earlier claim to the far smaller subset of "every urban gay bathhouse regular and heroin needle sharer". Thanks for that, at least. It's rather bizarre how some people have trouble distinguishing those very different sets.

    I submit that after a few more such iterations and successive leaps towards reality -- i.e., where we stop trying to strawman arguments we don't like for whatever reason -- and actually get to the basics of what real quarantine involves, or would have involved, we could at least get a clearer picture. But I submit we're not there yet.

  75. @Lot
    “ might well have saved lives”

    Not very many I’d say.

    I haven’t looked really closely at the issue, but it seems like basically every urban gay bathhouse regular and heroin needle sharer got HIV, typically lots of slightly different versions in multiple separate infections.

    Measures to stop this really would have required both mass involuntary testing and then physical restraints on the infected and probably too on those whose behavior made them vulnerable.

    Last time this came up, someone posted a memoir essay that said that in the gay centers circa 1980, STDs were considered routine and frequent minor annoyances. Once HIV was in such a mix, mass infection was inevitable. And the needle junkies even more so given they were injecting the virus right into their veins and were generally sickly to begin with.

    “Measures to stop this really would have required both mass involuntary testing and then physical restraints on the infected and probably too on those whose behavior made them vulnerable.”

    Yeah, that’s the only possible way. For sure. You, too, somehow forgot to mention cattle cars, but should I assume you’re just being delicate?

    And at least we’ve gone down from “the entire male homosexual population…and a mess of others” in the earlier claim to the far smaller subset of “every urban gay bathhouse regular and heroin needle sharer”. Thanks for that, at least. It’s rather bizarre how some people have trouble distinguishing those very different sets.

    I submit that after a few more such iterations and successive leaps towards reality — i.e., where we stop trying to strawman arguments we don’t like for whatever reason — and actually get to the basics of what real quarantine involves, or would have involved, we could at least get a clearer picture. But I submit we’re not there yet.

    • Replies: @Lot
    You are confusing me with Art Deco and/or being needlessly belligerent.

    Further, who says what I mentioned was a strawman? I think mass testing of HIV and physically restraining the infected should have been on the table if it would have been effective. But most likely it would have barely reduced the initial infection rate.

    My idea, I had in HS health class when I first read about HIV, and I still think is a good idea, is a mandatory and very small tattoo near the butthole. While invasive, on average each HIV patient (1) takes $200,000+ in public medical care (2) infects at least another 0.5 people.

    A tiny tat in return for 1 and to prevent 2 is more than a fair trade.
  76. @Anonymous
    The modern elites would rather have tens of thousands dead than tolerate proof that a motivated, competent government can control who does and doesn't enter its territory.
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Of course they are. Singapore is run by the last of the 19th-century Englishmen. They just happen to be yellow and brown and live in the far east in the twenty-first century.
  77. @HA
    "Measures to stop this really would have required both mass involuntary testing and then physical restraints on the infected and probably too on those whose behavior made them vulnerable."

    Yeah, that's the only possible way. For sure. You, too, somehow forgot to mention cattle cars, but should I assume you're just being delicate?

    And at least we've gone down from "the entire male homosexual population...and a mess of others" in the earlier claim to the far smaller subset of "every urban gay bathhouse regular and heroin needle sharer". Thanks for that, at least. It's rather bizarre how some people have trouble distinguishing those very different sets.

    I submit that after a few more such iterations and successive leaps towards reality -- i.e., where we stop trying to strawman arguments we don't like for whatever reason -- and actually get to the basics of what real quarantine involves, or would have involved, we could at least get a clearer picture. But I submit we're not there yet.

    You are confusing me with Art Deco and/or being needlessly belligerent.

    Further, who says what I mentioned was a strawman? I think mass testing of HIV and physically restraining the infected should have been on the table if it would have been effective. But most likely it would have barely reduced the initial infection rate.

    My idea, I had in HS health class when I first read about HIV, and I still think is a good idea, is a mandatory and very small tattoo near the butthole. While invasive, on average each HIV patient (1) takes $200,000+ in public medical care (2) infects at least another 0.5 people.

    A tiny tat in return for 1 and to prevent 2 is more than a fair trade.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    My idea, I had in HS health class when I first read about HIV, and I still think is a good idea, is a mandatory and very small tattoo
     
    My understanding is that 'receptive' practitioners were/are more at risk than 'active' participants. The 'active' participants are more likely to be spreading and infecting. So your charming suggestion of where the tat should be located may be misplaced. Granted, obviously, many are playing at both roles. Anyway, BTW, your tat should probably read "Abandon hope..." And it should use glow-in-the-dark ink ;)
  78. @Lot
    “ BLAST gives crazy results all the time if you aren’t careful using it.”

    Seems almost too far out to believe, “Super Bat-SARS With a Creamy HIV Filling!”

    But nobody has yet suggested reasons to be skeptical.

    And a reason to think engineered bioweapon: the Chinese started anti-HIV drugs pretty quick.

    Anti-HIV drugs are really just ARVs, Anti-Retro Viral drugs and will work on plenty of other retro viruses than HIV.

    Virology just isn’t that advanced for them to be doing something so subtle and intricate as the genetic modifications alleged with a clear idea of what they would achieve in terms of a specific goal like making a bioweapon.

  79. “You are confusing me with Art Deco and/or being needlessly belligerent.”

    No, I’m not. I realize that the statement about “every male homosexual” was his and the one about “every urban bathhouse regular” was yours. But both statements were strawmen arguments.

    “Further, who says what I mentioned was a strawman? I think mass testing of HIV and physically restraining the infected should have been on the table if it would have been effective.”

    And there we have it — you’ve yet again iterated your argument in the direction of reality. Good for you, I say, but at least acknowledge that you’ve done that. In other words, to summarize, we’ve gone from 1) Art Deco’s initial “every male homosexual…and a mess of others” to 2) your subsequent “every urban bathhouse regular”, and now you’re talking about 3) those actually shown to have been “infected”. See what I mean about getting closer to reality with ever more realistic subsets? Granted, you might think the distinction between 2) and 3) is irrelevant, or at least subtle, but it’s there, and important.

    I don’t know specifically the exact steps that would have been required, but I do agree with you that everything should have been on the table. Alas, it wasn’t, and that’s all I’m trying to say, and I’m not sure why you find that so argumentative a claim. It wouldn’t have saved many, you say? Even if that’s true, so what? How many does it take in orderfor it to be a number worth saving, and worth going the extra mile for? Maybe that’s our only disagreement.

    I will, however, note for both your and Art Deco’s benefit that the most recent measles oubtreak involved Orthodox Jews, and yet, miraculously not a single concentration camp (nor even a cattle car) was required. Maybe you and he find that mind-blowing, but it happens to be true. So no, I wasn’t being belligerent, either. I was refusing to engage in farcical extreme arguments that don’t measure up to quarantine as it has been performed by those who do it the best as can be done, which means going through the actual hard work of figuring out who was with contact with who and proceeding from there, as opposed to simply opting for mass incarceration of one group or another.

    And your statement about tattooing the infected goes back to a proposal by Wm F. Buckley. It was met with derision and outrage, to the extent that how many lives would have been saved was never even considered. Again, some sacred cows must never be disturbed. So thank you for helping to make my point.

    • Replies: @Lot
    “ How many does it take in orderfor it to be a number worth saving, and worth going the extra mile for?”

    Statistical value of a life and cost/benefit like any other public health measure.

    “ And your statement about tattooing the infected goes back to a proposal by Wm F. Buckley.”

    I remember it being my idea independently. I did read NR in HS so possible I got it from there. It is pretty obvious. I don’t remember or like the inner arm variation. It isn’t too much to ask needle sharing junkies to check under pants first.
  80. @Anon7
    Personally, I think that President Trump blew the political response, which should have been to get out in front of the do-nothing Democrats and show an excess of caution, even if it wasn't really warranted scientifically.

    I assume that President Trump is following the recommendations of the CDC; this is what they've been doing, as well as their current assessment:

    For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV is considered low. The goal of the ongoing U.S. public health response is to contain this outbreak and prevent sustained spread of 2019-nCov in this country.

    - CDC established a 2019-nCoV Incident Management Structure on January 7, 2020. On January 21, 2020, CDC activated its Emergency Response System to better provide ongoing support to the 2019-nCoV response.
    - On January 27, 2020 CDC issued updated travel guidance for China, recommending that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to all of the country (Level 3 Travel Health Notice).
    - CDC and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) are continuing to conduct enhanced entry screening of passengers who have been in Wuhan within the past 14 days at 5 designated U.S. airports. Given travel out of Wuhan has been shut down, the number of passengers who meet this criteria are dwindling.
    - Going forward, CBP officials will monitor for travelers with symptoms compatible with 2019-nCoV infection and a travel connection with China and will refer them to CDC staff for evaluation at all 20 U.S. quarantine stations.
    - At the same time, ALL travelers from China will be given CDC’s Travel Health Alert Notice, educating those travelers about what to do if they get sick with certain symptoms within 14 days after arriving in the United States.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html#anchor_1580079137454
     

    Okay, so you know how I wrote this post that was saying basically don’t panic?

    “Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed [“not fortuitous’].”

    (Via Anand Ranganathan, who obtained his BSc (Hons) degree in Chemistry from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi after which he left on a Nehru Centenary Scholarship for Cambridge, UK, where he obtained his BA (Tripos) in Natural Sciences, his MA, and his PhD. After a post-doctoral stint at Cambridge, Anand returned to India to join International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Delhi where he ran his lab for 16 years.)

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

    So, who’s read The Stand?

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    “Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed [“not fortuitous’].”
     
    Trump finally got around to instituting some limits on travel from China.

    CHINA SLAMS TRUMP’S CORONAVIRUS TRAVEL LIMITS: ‘NOT A GESTURE OF GOODWILL’

    Hey China! You know what else isn't a gesture of goodwill?? CORONAVIRUS
    , @James Forrestal

    “Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed [“not fortuitous’].”
     
    https://i.postimg.cc/5NSpbSr4/Coronavirus-HIV-Withdrawn.jpg

    Link
  81. @PiltdownMan

    Of course they are. Singapore is run by the last of the 19th-century Englishmen. They just happen to be yellow and brown and live in the far east in the twenty-first century.

  82. @Reg Cæsar

    He has nothing good to say about Southern whites and nothing bad to say about blacks.
     
    Southerners were considered the salt of the earth as long as they voted yellow-dog. Reading to do so is really their only sin.

    Don't take the rest of it seriously. We're they to return to the fold, all would be forgiven. That happened in 1976.

    That should read, “Failing to do so…” Bezos got me again.

    But his name is spelled right, a sign that I’m not on one of his products at the moment!

  83. Seems almost too far out to believe, “Super Bat-SARS With a Creamy HIV Filling!” But nobody has yet suggested reasons to be skeptical.

    I’ve suggested a few reasons in the Karlin Corona FAQ thread. Basically, there is reason to suspect the researchers may have misinterpreted the significance of their results since they were looking for short sequences that might also appear elsewhere + other reasons. Also, the anti-retroviral can be explained as a desperation move; those medications might work with some other RNA viruses besides HIV. Of course, there is always the possibility that Corona is an escaped medical experiment, but I don’t yet see any definitive evidence of that. Until such evidence emerges, I think the safer bet is the current story, which is completely plausible on its own anyway.

    • Agree: Jack D, El Dato
  84. @Pincher Martin

    Most of them are living in L.A. Perhaps Steve could interview one for you.
     
    I have never in my life heard of a Pacific Islander who had anything to say that was worth listening to.

    They're good fighters, good football players, and great eaters, but that's about where their skill set ends.

    One area in which Western does better is association football.
     
    So Western Samoa has association football, less junk food, softer music, and Paul Theroux's imprimatur.

    American Samoa, on the other hand, has American professional football, louder music, more junk food, longer life spans, fewer diseases, lower infant mortality, and it keeps the Paul Theroux's of the world at arm's length.

    I got to say that it looks like American Samoa wins in landslide.

    Samoa is a rugby country.-the number who play soccer is miniscule

  85. Samoans run their own country which may be important to some
    But they are very close to New Zealand and, by extension, to Australia
    More Samoans live in New Zealand and Australia than Samoa (ie they can easily qualify for a NZ passport which also gives them a right to permanent residence in Australia)

    People will differ in their opinion as to whether it is more agreeable to have a right to permanent residence in the USA or NZ/Australia

  86. @Jake
    Lesson #1: contrary to the Libertarian religion, nations/provinces/cities/peoples that are 'traders' - meaning, their identity is in commerce, not in land and the people living on the land, and their politics are based on shipping, their 'nobility' the richest traders - will always be more viciously amoral (love of money as root of all evil, and such) than counterparts based on land and extended family.


    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics. Swap all the American Samoans for the Western Samoans, and the same tragedy would have unfolded in Western Samoa, because Western Samoa's reigning culture would have remained the same.

    Now the really astute and brave of you can, and should, apply this knowledge to comparative studies that matter more to the world than Samoa.

    You sound like a typical anti-libertarian bigot who gets things exactly reversed.

    The Libertarian lesson here is the value of voluntary networks of family and clan, and local autonomy.

    Plus don’t be part of a socialist German monarchic dictatorship with legislated trade monopolies.

  87. @LondonBob
    Theroux would have hated Nauru even more. The population got fat off the earnings from selling phosphate from the bird droppings on the island, the resource has now been fully exploited and all they have left is diabetes. Coconut oil is incredibly fattening.

    https://www.ft.com/content/da2e7890-4851-11e4-b5ad-00144feab7de

    Corona virus is too contagious to fully contain, thankfully the mortality rate is low at around two percent.

    I am not convinced by the 2% mortality figure since that is just the number of cases / number of deaths.

    Instead, the calculation needs to be

    Number of dead / (number of dead + number of recoveries)

    Which is quite different.
    This article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51214864 gives a mortality rate of AT LEAST 10% which is much more serious.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    No it doesn't. "Number of cases" already includes both recoveries and deaths so the numbers are the same. Also you have the ratio inverted.

    The BBC numbers were very early, based on less than 1,000 cases. There is better data now.

    The latest numbers are Cases: 12,024 Deaths: 259, which is around 2%. As doctors gain familiarity with treatments, that % will probably go down. Usually in diseases like this, those that die are the most vulnerable - the elderly, very young, immunocompromised, etc. (although not always - the 1918 Spanish Flu seemed to target young healthy people for reasons not clearly understood. Possibly a vigorous immune system caused an overreaction, as it does with allergies).
  88. @HA
    "AIDS is latent for long periods after the initial infection. The median lapse of time is 11 years... You’d have had to put the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps"

    And yet, even before we knew that, certain people had decided that quarantine was definitely the wrong approach in the case of AIDS. In other words, my previous statement still holds. (And what a good boy you're being in assuming -- just the way the media and the powers that be want you to -- that any effort to physically prevent people from spreading AIDS must involve putting "the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps", though at least you didn't toss in mention of cattle cars. Even so, I submit you've gulped that Kool-Aid down way too eagerly.)

    In any case, just because a disease is latent doesn't mean others can't be infected. Pretending otherwise calls to mind Typhoid Mary and her insistence that she couldn't possibly be infecting anyone -- and shouldn't be quarantined -- given that she herself showed no outward signs of disease.

    In the case of AIDS, we also have the following to consider:


    A few weeks after people are infected with HIV, they enter a months-long acute phase of infection when levels of virus in the bloodstream spike. If left untreated, this is followed by a decade-long chronic phase of infection that precedes AIDS...Estimating infectivity during acute-phase HIV is notoriously difficult, and only one study, involving heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda, has ever measured it directly. The new study took two complementary approaches to estimate the additional risk of transmission during the acute phase. The first analysis used data from the Rakai study but accounted for differences among the couples that were ignored in earlier studies; the second analysis estimated infection risk from measurements of virus levels throughout the acute phase. Both approaches found that the risk of transmission is indeed higher during the acute phase than the chronic phase, but the amount of additional risk during the acute phase is equivalent to only eight extra months of chronic-phase infectivity.
     
    In other words, quarantine -- or at least preventing people from engaging in sex with others (not to mention sharing needles) at least during the acute phase of the infection -- might well have saved lives or at least initially seemed to have been the more salvific response (however much, as the above link notes, that researchers initially overestimated the infectivity during the acute phase). The most one can say to the contrary is that the matter, as of 2015, is far from settled, and that's not saying much.

    And yet, even before we knew that, certain people had decided that quarantine was definitely the wrong approach in the case of AIDS.

    Public health officials were successfully mau-mau’d by the gay lobby. The bathhouses should have been shut down in 1984 at the latest. Also, the confidentiality requirements in re handling medical records were excessive.

    That having been said, it wasn’t until the spring of 1984 that the officials were sure it was a viral illness. The initial cases were men who had had scores (actually, hundreds) of partners, most of them anonymous, so a contact tracing program could never be implemented. By the fall of 1985, public health officials were estimating that as many as 1 million people were infected, so a quarantine program was not an option. They’d cleaned up the blood supply at that point, so getting it from a transfusion was nearly impossible (though I think hemopheliacs were still vulnerable because batches Factor VIII were distilled from thousands of blood donations). Transmission of the virus through ordinary coitus was rare. At that point, the people falling ill were already self-segregated in homosexual subcultures and IV drug user subcultures.

  89. @HA
    "AIDS is latent for long periods after the initial infection. The median lapse of time is 11 years... You’d have had to put the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps"

    And yet, even before we knew that, certain people had decided that quarantine was definitely the wrong approach in the case of AIDS. In other words, my previous statement still holds. (And what a good boy you're being in assuming -- just the way the media and the powers that be want you to -- that any effort to physically prevent people from spreading AIDS must involve putting "the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps", though at least you didn't toss in mention of cattle cars. Even so, I submit you've gulped that Kool-Aid down way too eagerly.)

    In any case, just because a disease is latent doesn't mean others can't be infected. Pretending otherwise calls to mind Typhoid Mary and her insistence that she couldn't possibly be infecting anyone -- and shouldn't be quarantined -- given that she herself showed no outward signs of disease.

    In the case of AIDS, we also have the following to consider:


    A few weeks after people are infected with HIV, they enter a months-long acute phase of infection when levels of virus in the bloodstream spike. If left untreated, this is followed by a decade-long chronic phase of infection that precedes AIDS...Estimating infectivity during acute-phase HIV is notoriously difficult, and only one study, involving heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda, has ever measured it directly. The new study took two complementary approaches to estimate the additional risk of transmission during the acute phase. The first analysis used data from the Rakai study but accounted for differences among the couples that were ignored in earlier studies; the second analysis estimated infection risk from measurements of virus levels throughout the acute phase. Both approaches found that the risk of transmission is indeed higher during the acute phase than the chronic phase, but the amount of additional risk during the acute phase is equivalent to only eight extra months of chronic-phase infectivity.
     
    In other words, quarantine -- or at least preventing people from engaging in sex with others (not to mention sharing needles) at least during the acute phase of the infection -- might well have saved lives or at least initially seemed to have been the more salvific response (however much, as the above link notes, that researchers initially overestimated the infectivity during the acute phase). The most one can say to the contrary is that the matter, as of 2015, is far from settled, and that's not saying much.

    And what a good boy you’re being in assuming —

    Twerp.

    just the way the media and the powers that be want you to — that any effort to physically prevent people from spreading AIDS must involve putting “the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps”

    That’s what it would have required. It was already pervasive in that subpopulation by 1984 and you would have needed to segregate that population, test all of them, and then release selectively. You’re talking about 5 million people who would have had to be detained at least until their test results were final.

    • Replies: @HA
    "That’s what it would have required."

    No, twit -- read your prior post, if you forgot it already. Start with things like closing down bathhouses and the like. Move on to dealing with those shown to have been exposed, the same way as is done with other diseases. Above all, do not allow yourself to be cowed or otherwise manhandled (or whatever the appropriate term would be) by a bunch of gay activists more worried about their own "stigmatization" and identity politics power plays than actually saving lives.

    And that includes, not parroting idiotic strawmen arguments which involve incarcerating every male homosexual for a decade or more. That's the very thing that the shrieking drama queens (who, surprise, surprise, are well-represented among the aforementioned gay activists) are claiming is the only alternative being offered by anyone who isn't 100% on board their program.

  90. @Smithsonian_6
    I am not convinced by the 2% mortality figure since that is just the number of cases / number of deaths.

    Instead, the calculation needs to be

    Number of dead / (number of dead + number of recoveries)

    Which is quite different.
    This article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51214864 gives a mortality rate of AT LEAST 10% which is much more serious.

    No it doesn’t. “Number of cases” already includes both recoveries and deaths so the numbers are the same. Also you have the ratio inverted.

    The BBC numbers were very early, based on less than 1,000 cases. There is better data now.

    The latest numbers are Cases: 12,024 Deaths: 259, which is around 2%. As doctors gain familiarity with treatments, that % will probably go down. Usually in diseases like this, those that die are the most vulnerable – the elderly, very young, immunocompromised, etc. (although not always – the 1918 Spanish Flu seemed to target young healthy people for reasons not clearly understood. Possibly a vigorous immune system caused an overreaction, as it does with allergies).

    • Replies: @Smithsonian_6

    No it doesn’t. “Number of cases” already includes both recoveries and deaths so the numbers are the same. Also you have the ratio inverted
     
    Presumably it also includes people who have the disease but haven't yet died OR recovered, which by definition cannot give you information about the mortality rate.

    (The ratio is the right way up since we are talking percentages).
  91. @HA
    "You are confusing me with Art Deco and/or being needlessly belligerent."

    No, I'm not. I realize that the statement about "every male homosexual" was his and the one about "every urban bathhouse regular" was yours. But both statements were strawmen arguments.

    "Further, who says what I mentioned was a strawman? I think mass testing of HIV and physically restraining the infected should have been on the table if it would have been effective."

    And there we have it -- you've yet again iterated your argument in the direction of reality. Good for you, I say, but at least acknowledge that you've done that. In other words, to summarize, we've gone from 1) Art Deco's initial "every male homosexual...and a mess of others" to 2) your subsequent "every urban bathhouse regular", and now you're talking about 3) those actually shown to have been "infected". See what I mean about getting closer to reality with ever more realistic subsets? Granted, you might think the distinction between 2) and 3) is irrelevant, or at least subtle, but it's there, and important.

    I don't know specifically the exact steps that would have been required, but I do agree with you that everything should have been on the table. Alas, it wasn't, and that's all I'm trying to say, and I'm not sure why you find that so argumentative a claim. It wouldn't have saved many, you say? Even if that's true, so what? How many does it take in orderfor it to be a number worth saving, and worth going the extra mile for? Maybe that's our only disagreement.

    I will, however, note for both your and Art Deco's benefit that the most recent measles oubtreak involved Orthodox Jews, and yet, miraculously not a single concentration camp (nor even a cattle car) was required. Maybe you and he find that mind-blowing, but it happens to be true. So no, I wasn't being belligerent, either. I was refusing to engage in farcical extreme arguments that don't measure up to quarantine as it has been performed by those who do it the best as can be done, which means going through the actual hard work of figuring out who was with contact with who and proceeding from there, as opposed to simply opting for mass incarceration of one group or another.

    And your statement about tattooing the infected goes back to a proposal by Wm F. Buckley. It was met with derision and outrage, to the extent that how many lives would have been saved was never even considered. Again, some sacred cows must never be disturbed. So thank you for helping to make my point.

    “ How many does it take in orderfor it to be a number worth saving, and worth going the extra mile for?”

    Statistical value of a life and cost/benefit like any other public health measure.

    “ And your statement about tattooing the infected goes back to a proposal by Wm F. Buckley.”

    I remember it being my idea independently. I did read NR in HS so possible I got it from there. It is pretty obvious. I don’t remember or like the inner arm variation. It isn’t too much to ask needle sharing junkies to check under pants first.

  92. @Jack D
    No it doesn't. "Number of cases" already includes both recoveries and deaths so the numbers are the same. Also you have the ratio inverted.

    The BBC numbers were very early, based on less than 1,000 cases. There is better data now.

    The latest numbers are Cases: 12,024 Deaths: 259, which is around 2%. As doctors gain familiarity with treatments, that % will probably go down. Usually in diseases like this, those that die are the most vulnerable - the elderly, very young, immunocompromised, etc. (although not always - the 1918 Spanish Flu seemed to target young healthy people for reasons not clearly understood. Possibly a vigorous immune system caused an overreaction, as it does with allergies).

    No it doesn’t. “Number of cases” already includes both recoveries and deaths so the numbers are the same. Also you have the ratio inverted

    Presumably it also includes people who have the disease but haven’t yet died OR recovered, which by definition cannot give you information about the mortality rate.

    (The ratio is the right way up since we are talking percentages).

    • Replies: @Smithsonian_2

    No it doesn’t. “Number of cases” already includes both recoveries and deaths so the numbers are the same. Also you have the ratio inverted

    Presumably it also includes people who have the disease but haven’t yet died OR recovered, which by definition cannot give you information about the mortality rate.

    (The ratio is the right way up since we are talking percentages).
     

     
    Oh wait, the first ratio - yeah, my bad. But the point still stands that the total infection rate includes those people who are still sick and haven't yet either died or recovered and therefore should be excluded from the mortality calculation.
  93. Anon[163] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    OT but why is Pago Pago pronounced Pango Pango?

    The g sound in Samoan represents a velar nasal, where the back of your tongue touches the soft palate tissue at the back of your throat to stop the airflow through your mouth and send it through your nose. English doesn’t have any sound like that between vowels (intervocalic). We do have it before a hard g sound, a so-called velar stop, and we have it at the end of words, so the n in bingo and the g in ping. When you say “ping a friend,” the g there is close to the g in Pago Pago. The g there is not like the ng in bingo, which is a velar nasal followed by a hard g, two sequential consonants.

    So the answer is that Samoan needed a letter to represent its velar nasal, and Samoan doesn’t have a velar stop (a g), so the letter g was appropriated for the velar nasal. The name is doomed to be mispronounced by English speakers because English doesn’t even have that sound between vowels, and there is no way to represent it any better in Roman letters.

    • Replies: @sb
    Why do we say ParIS and not Paree?
    Why is Kirabati prounced Kirabus?
    Why do Americans say erb and not Herb ?
    Why do Brits say shedule and not skedule ?
    This could go on longer than The Neverending Story
  94. @Anon7
    Okay, so you know how I wrote this post that was saying basically don’t panic?

    “Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed ["not fortuitous'].”

    (Via Anand Ranganathan, who obtained his BSc (Hons) degree in Chemistry from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi after which he left on a Nehru Centenary Scholarship for Cambridge, UK, where he obtained his BA (Tripos) in Natural Sciences, his MA, and his PhD. After a post-doctoral stint at Cambridge, Anand returned to India to join International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Delhi where he ran his lab for 16 years.)

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

    So, who’s read The Stand?

    “Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed [“not fortuitous’].”

    Trump finally got around to instituting some limits on travel from China.

    CHINA SLAMS TRUMP’S CORONAVIRUS TRAVEL LIMITS: ‘NOT A GESTURE OF GOODWILL’

    Hey China! You know what else isn’t a gesture of goodwill?? CORONAVIRUS

  95. @Lot
    You are confusing me with Art Deco and/or being needlessly belligerent.

    Further, who says what I mentioned was a strawman? I think mass testing of HIV and physically restraining the infected should have been on the table if it would have been effective. But most likely it would have barely reduced the initial infection rate.

    My idea, I had in HS health class when I first read about HIV, and I still think is a good idea, is a mandatory and very small tattoo near the butthole. While invasive, on average each HIV patient (1) takes $200,000+ in public medical care (2) infects at least another 0.5 people.

    A tiny tat in return for 1 and to prevent 2 is more than a fair trade.

    My idea, I had in HS health class when I first read about HIV, and I still think is a good idea, is a mandatory and very small tattoo

    My understanding is that ‘receptive’ practitioners were/are more at risk than ‘active’ participants. The ‘active’ participants are more likely to be spreading and infecting. So your charming suggestion of where the tat should be located may be misplaced. Granted, obviously, many are playing at both roles. Anyway, BTW, your tat should probably read “Abandon hope…” And it should use glow-in-the-dark ink 😉

  96. @Lot
    Chinese employee of German company is first confirmed superspreader. He infected 6 German coworkers, one of them infected his child, which seems to be the first double-transmission outside of China.

    Meanwhile Harvard’s Dr. Eric reports there may be HIV insertions into 2019NCorona.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1223305946723704832

    https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/shacknews/assets/editorial/2016/10/IJnxZ3w.gif

    Meanwhile Harvard’s Dr. Eric reports there may be HIV insertions into 2019NCorona.

    Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing
    Public health scientist
    👨🏻‍🔬
    / Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Harvard ‘07 + Johns Hopkins ‘04 / Taught 15yrs HarvardSPH / NYT-feat. pharma whistleblower

    Dr. Feigl Ding should maybe explain whether he is looking for noise and working a bit too hard here to get published.

    Why should there be “HIV insertions” and what would the virus do with it (would it even function? Would it bind better to some cells?)

    Taken together, our findings suggest unconventional evolution of 2019-nCoV that warrants further investigation. Our work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV and has implications on the pathogenesis and diagnosis of this virus.

    I thought i came via bat or snake? Or does it mean that virus just up and grabs a bit of stuff from a completely alien RNA virus??

    Come clear with your academic bull Mr DingDong, you think this is a Greg Bear novel or something?

    • Replies: @Jane Plain
    That AIDS insertion is a rumor! Hasn't been substantiated!

    What kind of a name is Feigl-Ding, and why does he put so many exclamation points in his tweets?!
  97. @Smithsonian_6

    No it doesn’t. “Number of cases” already includes both recoveries and deaths so the numbers are the same. Also you have the ratio inverted
     
    Presumably it also includes people who have the disease but haven't yet died OR recovered, which by definition cannot give you information about the mortality rate.

    (The ratio is the right way up since we are talking percentages).

    No it doesn’t. “Number of cases” already includes both recoveries and deaths so the numbers are the same. Also you have the ratio inverted

    Presumably it also includes people who have the disease but haven’t yet died OR recovered, which by definition cannot give you information about the mortality rate.

    (The ratio is the right way up since we are talking percentages).

    Oh wait, the first ratio – yeah, my bad. But the point still stands that the total infection rate includes those people who are still sick and haven’t yet either died or recovered and therefore should be excluded from the mortality calculation.

  98. @El Dato

    Meanwhile Harvard’s Dr. Eric reports there may be HIV insertions into 2019NCorona.
     


    Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing
    Public health scientist
    👨🏻‍🔬
    / Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Harvard ‘07 + Johns Hopkins ‘04 / Taught 15yrs HarvardSPH / NYT-feat. pharma whistleblower

     

    Dr. Feigl Ding should maybe explain whether he is looking for noise and working a bit too hard here to get published.

    Why should there be "HIV insertions" and what would the virus do with it (would it even function? Would it bind better to some cells?)


    Taken together, our findings suggest unconventional evolution of 2019-nCoV that warrants further investigation. Our work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV and has implications on the pathogenesis and diagnosis of this virus.
     
    I thought i came via bat or snake? Or does it mean that virus just up and grabs a bit of stuff from a completely alien RNA virus??

    Come clear with your academic bull Mr DingDong, you think this is a Greg Bear novel or something?

    That AIDS insertion is a rumor! Hasn’t been substantiated!

    What kind of a name is Feigl-Ding, and why does he put so many exclamation points in his tweets?!

  99. @Art Deco
    And what a good boy you’re being in assuming —

    Twerp.



    just the way the media and the powers that be want you to — that any effort to physically prevent people from spreading AIDS must involve putting “the entire male homosexual population in concentration camps”

    That's what it would have required. It was already pervasive in that subpopulation by 1984 and you would have needed to segregate that population, test all of them, and then release selectively. You're talking about 5 million people who would have had to be detained at least until their test results were final.

    “That’s what it would have required.”

    No, twit — read your prior post, if you forgot it already. Start with things like closing down bathhouses and the like. Move on to dealing with those shown to have been exposed, the same way as is done with other diseases. Above all, do not allow yourself to be cowed or otherwise manhandled (or whatever the appropriate term would be) by a bunch of gay activists more worried about their own “stigmatization” and identity politics power plays than actually saving lives.

    And that includes, not parroting idiotic strawmen arguments which involve incarcerating every male homosexual for a decade or more. That’s the very thing that the shrieking drama queens (who, surprise, surprise, are well-represented among the aforementioned gay activists) are claiming is the only alternative being offered by anyone who isn’t 100% on board their program.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    And that includes, not parroting idiotic strawmen arguments which involve incarcerating every male homosexual for a decade or more.

    The prevalence in the homosexual population was 50% by 1986. No strawman there.
  100. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:

    Many gays would have liked for AIDS drugs to be subject to government price controls and were vocal about this. Had Jiminy Carter still been in the White House they might have gotten their way, which would have arrested the development of those drugs effectively, and AIDS would have burned itself out by now via die-off. In the long run perhaps more lives might have been saved. It also might have solved the overpopulation crisis in sub-Saharan Africa by a generation, maybe a long generation.

    Heartless? Well maybe, but had it happened, there would have been no proof that it might have happened the other way.

  101. @Anon
    OT but why is Pago Pago pronounced Pango Pango?

    Because there is an automatic phonological rule in Samoan that inserts the sound n in front of the g, so there is no need to write it. It’s more efficient. Similarly in Fijian, Nadi is automatically pronounced Nandi. sort of like in English when you write “dink” you don’t need to write dingk.

  102. @Anon
    The g sound in Samoan represents a velar nasal, where the back of your tongue touches the soft palate tissue at the back of your throat to stop the airflow through your mouth and send it through your nose. English doesn't have any sound like that between vowels (intervocalic). We do have it before a hard g sound, a so-called velar stop, and we have it at the end of words, so the n in bingo and the g in ping. When you say "ping a friend," the g there is close to the g in Pago Pago. The g there is not like the ng in bingo, which is a velar nasal followed by a hard g, two sequential consonants.

    So the answer is that Samoan needed a letter to represent its velar nasal, and Samoan doesn't have a velar stop (a g), so the letter g was appropriated for the velar nasal. The name is doomed to be mispronounced by English speakers because English doesn't even have that sound between vowels, and there is no way to represent it any better in Roman letters.

    Why do we say ParIS and not Paree?
    Why is Kirabati prounced Kirabus?
    Why do Americans say erb and not Herb ?
    Why do Brits say shedule and not skedule ?
    This could go on longer than The Neverending Story

  103. @HA
    "That’s what it would have required."

    No, twit -- read your prior post, if you forgot it already. Start with things like closing down bathhouses and the like. Move on to dealing with those shown to have been exposed, the same way as is done with other diseases. Above all, do not allow yourself to be cowed or otherwise manhandled (or whatever the appropriate term would be) by a bunch of gay activists more worried about their own "stigmatization" and identity politics power plays than actually saving lives.

    And that includes, not parroting idiotic strawmen arguments which involve incarcerating every male homosexual for a decade or more. That's the very thing that the shrieking drama queens (who, surprise, surprise, are well-represented among the aforementioned gay activists) are claiming is the only alternative being offered by anyone who isn't 100% on board their program.

    And that includes, not parroting idiotic strawmen arguments which involve incarcerating every male homosexual for a decade or more.

    The prevalence in the homosexual population was 50% by 1986. No strawman there.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
  104. @Anon7
    Okay, so you know how I wrote this post that was saying basically don’t panic?

    “Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed ["not fortuitous'].”

    (Via Anand Ranganathan, who obtained his BSc (Hons) degree in Chemistry from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi after which he left on a Nehru Centenary Scholarship for Cambridge, UK, where he obtained his BA (Tripos) in Natural Sciences, his MA, and his PhD. After a post-doctoral stint at Cambridge, Anand returned to India to join International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Delhi where he ran his lab for 16 years.)

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

    So, who’s read The Stand?

    “Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed [“not fortuitous’].”

    Link

  105. @LondonBob
    Theroux would have hated Nauru even more. The population got fat off the earnings from selling phosphate from the bird droppings on the island, the resource has now been fully exploited and all they have left is diabetes. Coconut oil is incredibly fattening.

    https://www.ft.com/content/da2e7890-4851-11e4-b5ad-00144feab7de

    Corona virus is too contagious to fully contain, thankfully the mortality rate is low at around two percent.

    Corona virus is too contagious to fully contain, thankfully the mortality rate is low at around two percent.

    1. The 1918 “Spanish Flu” had a case-fatality rate of about 2.5%. It killed at least 50 million peoplepossibly 100 million. On the other hand, MERS (a coronavirus related to 2019-nCoV) has a case-fatality rate of 20% or more. Sucks for you if you get it, but at a population level it’s not nearly as big a threat, because it’s mostly not transmitted very efficiently person-to-person [so far]. It keeps getting reintroduced from an animal reservoir (camels).

    2. As Smithsonian pointed out, most people don’t die on the day that they’re diagnosed, so when the epidemic is in an exponential growth phase, comparing current total cases with current total deaths understates mortality (misses the sick people who are going to die from the disease, but haven’t died yet).

    3. On the other side, especially in Wuhan, where the healthcare system is overwhelmed, a lot of mild cases likely aren’t getting formally diagnosed — which would tend falsely elevate mortality. Tough to know exactly how various factors balance out.

    This model estimates a fatality rate of around 6.5%.

    Bottom line: even with a case-fatality rate of 2%, it’s worth going all out to try to contain this. As long as they can keep the number of potential cases down to a level that screening, identifying cases, contact tracing, and isolation can keep up with, then there’s a decent chance. Gotta keep the effective reproduction number below 1. If the above model is correct, that can be accomplished by reducing the average infectious exposure time to 2.3 days or less. If Whites turn out to be less susceptible than Asians (as some of the ACE2 data suggests), that should help as well.

    The 14 day quarantine on people coming in from China is a little late, but may still do it.

  106. @Reg Cæsar


    Lesson #2: Culture can, and always does to a large degree, trump genetics.
     
    What superficial nonsense. This has to be a troll post.
     
    Of course. Any fool can see that North Koreans are genetically closer to Afghans and Ugandans than to those people who coincidentally share their peninsula, language, and alphabet. Who themselves are more closely related to Maltese, Kuwaitis, and Bahamians.


    Same with Yemen and Oman. Poland and Ukraine. Havana and Miami. Huge genetic clines. Cultural differences, trivial.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita


    https://en.actualitix.com/doc/maps/wld/world-map-gdp-per-capita-by-country.jpg

    And of course, “any fool can see” that Nature vs. Nurture is an entirely binary distinction.

    Das rite.

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