The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
Taleb on Why Panic Is Good
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Professor Taleb comes from the once-ruling Christian elite of Lebanon, back when it was “the Switzerland of the Middle East.” When people ask him, “What’s the worst that can happen?” he has many replies. But I think deep down, the answer that set him on his life work as our leading theoretician of disaster would be: “How does 15 years of civil war sound?”

 
Hide 245 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. IHTG says:

    The demographic transformation of Lebanon was no unpredictable Black Swan, though.

    • Replies: @Kronos
    , @utu
    , @Anon
  2. dearieme says:

    I’d be a bit more impressed by the advocates of “lockdown everyone everywhere immediately” if they were to tell me how they propose to handle the unlockup.

    Note too that if every jurisdiction adopts the same policies there will be no chance to learn what works well and what badly. Of course we’ll have to wait a while (two years, five years?) to know that anyway but it still might be useful for the next pandemic that comes along. When might that be? Lord knows.

  3. @dearieme

    I’m still trying to figure out how and why the US voluntarily euthanized its entire economy in less than a week.

    Is this virus really that bad, or is it being used as cover to deflate the asset bubble that has built up since ’09, or ’01 by some measures?

  4. Polynikes says:

    Interesting point in the article. But then again, how much panic is too much? There’s a fine line between scaring everybody into staying home and running society right off the rails.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  5. Am I the only one who thinks this isn’t a big deal but is encouraging the hysteria anyway for the potential damage it could do to the global establishment?

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
  6. Posting this will likely make Taleb block you on Twitter.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  7. One good thing from this (I hope) will be a review of our public health system.

    And why can’t we always have cheap drive through stations that test us for all kinds of bugs?

    • Agree: West Reanimator
  8. danand says:

    “How does 15 years of civil war sound?”

    I’m totally onboard with the professor. A boatload, or two, of the “regular” posters here on the Unz site comment as though they are in rabid anticipation of that sound.

    • Replies: @Charon
    , @Lurker
    , @BenKenobi
  9. @dearieme

    Some early data from Italy:

  10. Charon says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    It’s not just the USA, it’s the entire world. And while we were overdue for a recession in business-cycle terms, the nCoV is a genuine Black Swan event.

  11. Charon says:
    @danand

    Yeah, people are in favor of war mainly because they don’t have any real experience of war, and/or they don’t think they’ll be personally affected.

    Lebanon’s not just about its civil war. It’s also about its friendly neighbor who sometimes drops in uninvited and slaughters 1500 people at a time.

    Such neighbors, we should all have.

  12. Kronos says:
    @IHTG

    It may be one of those things where the butcher understands what’s going to happen on Thanksgiving but the turkey doesn’t have a clue. Taleb and family may have been plucked on the Civil War issue.

  13. As the hoards of toilet paper grow in size and number exponentially, the nation’s stock of self-storage rental units will stretch to the breaking point.

    • Replies: @Kolya Krassotkin
  14. El Dato says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    is this virus really that bad, or is it being used as cover to deflate the asset bubble

    Well, that “cover” was none too good.

    I mean, do we really need conspiracy theories where the conspiracy is exactly what would happen in real life?

    In a smoke-filled room full of old white men, as mysterious X-Files music plays:

    “We want do deflate the asset bubble that’s been forming for some time now!”
    “I though you believe that ‘the fundamentals are strong’”
    “Don’t be silly.”
    “How do we do that without anybody noticing? What would be the cover story?”
    “We put out the rumor there is a deadly virus afoot”.
    “Then it deflates …”
    “… and nobody really notices!”
    “Genius!”
    “And at the end we retire the virus story.”
    “Gentlemen, I think we are in agreement then.”

    Meanwhile:

    Nike closes all stores in N. America, W. Europe & Australia/NZ due to coronavirus crisis

    INNER CITYS GONNA BURN!

    • Replies: @Autochthon
  15. Sean says:

    Yes, but he argues that Lebanon has immunity* from civil war for a generation because of the tinder for such a conflagration was burnt up. Conversely, Syria’s meta-stability was a sure sign ot trouble ahead, all it needed was a spark.

    The Calm Before the Storm
    Why Volatility Signals Stability, and Vice Versa

    By Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Gregory F. Treverton January/February 2015

    Even as protests spread across the Middle East in early 2011, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria appeared immune from the upheaval. Assad had ruled comfortably for over a decade, having replaced his father, Hafez, who himself had held power for the previous three decades. Many pundits argued that Syria’s sturdy police state, which exercised tight control over the country’s people and economy, would survive the Arab Spring undisturbed. Compared with its neighbor Lebanon, Syria looked positively stable. Civil war had torn through Lebanon throughout much of the 1970s and 1980s, and the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005 had plunged the country into yet more chaos.

    But appearances were deceiving: today, Syria is in a shambles, with the regime fighting for its very survival, whereas Lebanon has withstood the influx of Syrian refugees and the other considerable pressures of the civil war next door.

    * Taleb’s ideas may have influenced the British government’s coronavirus policy. He had meetings with David Cameron so he has prestige in Conservative circles especially the now notorious nudge unit supremo David Solomon Halpern, who is a psychologist and by no means an expert on epidemiology.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/books-and-media/why-trauma-may-be-just-what-you-need/article5859652/

    In this passage,[ from the book Antifragility] Mr. Taleb considers the “antifragile” benefits of trauma, redundancy and overcompensation

    One day, sitting in the office of David Halpern, a U.K. government adviser and policy-maker, he informed me of a phenomenon called post-traumatic growth, the opposite of post-traumatic stress syndrome, by which people harmed by past events surpass themselves

    • Replies: @Matra
    , @miss marple
  16. Bitfu says:

    SHUT UP NASSIM TALEB. STFU!!!! YOU ARE A BUFFOON AND A CHARLATAN. SHUT YOUR F*ING MOUTH. NOW!!!!!!!!

    This Public Service Overreaction was brought to you by Bitfu. According to Taleb, my reaction is philanthropic and beneficial to all of mankind.

    You’re Welcome.

    • Agree: vhrm
    • LOL: JimDandy
  17. “How does 15 years of civil war sound?”

    Only 15? Are you effing kidding me?

    A peaceful and rational secession and partition is entirely doable (I can tell you at least a half dozen practical ways to do it). But alas, historically speaking, Americans are neither peaceful nor rational, nor practical, so count on the needless endless bloodbath instead.

  18. Anon[485] • Disclaimer says:

    Scott Adams is saying that, although you don’t want to panic people, nevertheless, bell curve and all, whatever you do will create varying levels of concern along a spectrum. To provoke the desired level of motivated hyperconcern among most people that will lead to solutions, perforce you’re going to end up with about 10 percent of the population panicking, and 1o percent thinking “Whatevahs” and heading out to the St. Patrick’s Day party.

  19. Taleb is Greek Orthodox. In Lebanon, they dominated banking and merchant activity and also occupied farmland north of Tripoli and in the Bekaa Valley. They are still there today. Given the dispersed Greek Orthodox population compared to, say the Shia, Druze and Maronites, they were often strong supporters of pan-Arab nationalism and supplied many of the early ideologues and leaders. However, numerically, the Maronites were larger so not sure one can say Taleb comes from the ‘Christian ruling elite’ of Lebanon.

  20. utu says:
    @IHTG

    Influx of Palestinian refugees to Lebanon was unpredictable before Israel pushed them out.

  21. tanabear says:

    Nassim Taleb did state in an interview the the civil war in Lebanon did influence him. However, it was when he came to America and became an options trader that set him on his life work. You can’t get in shape or get fat in a day. But you can go broke or get rich in a day on Wall Street.

  22. Danindc says:

    Speaks well of you Steve that you can see the good in this guy. He does have important things to say even though you schooled him in your last tête-à-tête.

  23. LET IT ALL GO, DAMMIT! LET THE FINANCIAL MARKETS FIND THEIR PROPER LEVEL!

    The asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate — commercial and residential — must be allowed to undergo PRICE DISCOVERY unhindered by the anti-capitalist machinations of the globalized central banker shysters.

    This is the third frigging asset bubble, starting in the 1990s, that the plutocrat- and privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank has inflated using monetary extremism — low or zero or negative interest rates, asset purchases, quantitative easing, dollar swaps, direct central bank purchases of sovereign and corporate debt, balance sheet ballooning, bailouts…etc. — and enough is enough, DAMMIT!

    A lot of sonsofabitches are saying they want this thing that is so-called “capitalism” and I say give it to ’em with both barrels. Stop the monetary extremism from the Fed and you greedy stupid boneheads will get your damn “capitalism.”

    There is no “capitalism,” you damn dirty ape fools, there is only globalized central banker shysterism. You can’t have any damn thing called “capitalism” when you have a debt-based fiat currency system. The greedy and immoral and evil ones will always use the electronics of an electronic debt-based fiat currency system to their advantage and they don’t give a frigging damn about what is in the best interests of the nation as a whole.

    The hostile and evil and immoral JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire is actively engaged in attacking and destroying the USA using globalization and fiancialization and mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and globalized trade deal scams and monetary policy and foreign policy and tax policy as a political weapon to kill the historic American nation and to attack and destroy the European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    Even this Viking guy who is accurate in his descriptions of the nasty antics of the plutocrat- and globalizer-controlled globalized central banks and who ain’t English but lives in the splendid and bucolic and green and ENGLISH area of England that is White White White has seemingly capitulated to this deranged and crazy monetary policy which demands constant rigging in favor of the plutocrats. Even you, Mr. Henrich?

    Keep the financial markets open and stop rigging them in favor of the globalizers and the bankers and the plutocrats!

    Sven, How dare you! That’s what Sven’s fellow Scandinavian Greta Thornberg would say.

    We can’t ask what Marv Throneberry would do or say because he croaked in 1994. Tennessee guy, that Throneberry. Career 53 home runs, 53 more than most of us.

    Mr Henrich Contemplates Shutting Down Financial Markets; I Say Keep Them Open:

    • Agree: Bill Jones
  24. anonymous[154] • Disclaimer says:

    In this paper from ’08, Shi Zhengli, lead researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, describes how she and her team engineered a bat coronavirus strain capable of utilizing human pulmonary ACE2 receptors (like the Wuhan Flu does):

    https://jvi.asm.org/content/82/4/1899

    In this study, a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-based pseudovirus system was employed to address these issues. Our results indicated that the SL-CoV S protein is unable to use ACE2 proteins of different species for cell entry and that SARS-CoV S protein also failed to bind the ACE2 molecule of the horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus pearsonii. However, when the RBD of SL-CoV S was replaced with that from the SARS-CoV S, the hybrid S protein was able to use the huACE2 for cell entry, implying that the SL-CoV S proteins are structurally and functionally very similar to the SARS-CoV S. These results suggest that although the SL-CoVs discovered in bats so far are unlikely to infect humans using ACE2 as a receptor, it remains to be seen whether they are able to use other surface molecules of certain human cell types to gain entry. It is also conceivable that these viruses may become infectious to humans if they undergo N-terminal sequence variation, for example, through recombination with other CoVs, which in turn might lead to a productive interaction with ACE2 or other surface proteins on human cells.

    Yet the MSM dismisses any notion of a connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology as a “conspiracy theory” that’s been “debunked.”

    • Thanks: Ben tillman, HammerJack
    • Replies: @Thatoneguy
  25. @LemmusLemmus

    Oh you mean take prudent steps to distance yourself, don’t hug and kiss for a while, extra hand-washing, then the curve comes down?

    As opposed to running ads to encourage your citizens to HUG a Chinese person to prove your aren’t racist? I hope such cases make good lawsuits for those who lost loved ones.

  26. Lurker says:
    @danand

    One side already initiated that war [insert preferred inception date] while many on the other (target) side remain largely unaware.

    And, as someone once said:

    People are disposed to mistake predicting troubles for causing troubles and even for desiring troubles

  27. Predictably, the (((shrieking))) to simply close the casino has begun:

    “Just Close The Whole Thing Up”: CNBC Anchors Melt Down, Beg For Market Closures On Twitter

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-close-whole-thing-cnbc-anchors-melt-down-beg-market-closures-twitter

    And here a silly goy like me thought markets worked in both directions!

    • Replies: @Hunsdon
  28. Rob Lee says:
    @Charon

    Even those who’ve never been in a war can still thoroughly understand the concept of being prepared for one. In addition, there are enough veterans of wars within living memory on this site who choose to have the upper hand in the very small (yet probably inevitable) chance that a civil war breaks out in the United States. It is not warmongering, naivete, bravado or machismo to understand the value in self-defense, stockpiling, preparation and basic survival. It is absurd NOT TO DO SO, and whistling past the graveyard simply guarantees that you’ll end up in one; most probably not on your own terms. You don’t have to be a keyboard tough guy to not want to die in a savage riot.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  29. Catching/avoiding a communicable disease is a classic economic “externality” issue.

    Catching the virus sucks for you because you become sick. But it also imposes an additional external cost to the community because it makes you into a disease vector for spreading the virus to others.

    Since individuals only bear the cost of their own sickness, and not the additional harm to the community from spreading it further, they are under-incentivized to avoid catching it in the first place.

    I imagine Taleb’s academic paper is merely making this simple and obvious point, but with lots of jargon and Inapt metaphors. That’s his M.O., IMHO.

    It’s worth noting that disease is not a “Black Swan.” It’s one of the “Four Horseman” that everyone knows is coming someday. Pandemics may be infrequent but they aren’t unimaginable as a risk factor.

  30. BenKenobi says:
    @danand

    Well duh. If White people are to disappear from God’s Gay Earth then we shall leave behind an irradiated planet of the apes.

    Enjoy.

  31. @The Wild Geese Howard

    “I’m still trying to figure out how and why the US voluntarily euthanized its entire economy in less than a week.”

    69 deaths, one for every five million people. We had no choice but to cancel civilization.

    Somewhere, Pepe the frog is smiling.

    • Agree: Colin Wright, Wielgus
    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Redneck farmer
  32. @dearieme

    “what works well”

    Humidity FFS.

    They humidify in Japan and Korea in offices and homes in the winter.

    Tropical countries have been fine.

    Unfortunately, the world deserves total economic collapse, for being so incredibly stupid to panic like this.

  33. We have people freaking because of the virus, people freaking out because people are freaking out, people freaking out because others are not freaking out.

    The underlying problem corona has exposed is that people have no faith in any of our institutions anymore. The press and gov’t have discredited themselves and no one knows what to do or who to trust. And it has laid bare the fundamental failings of our current globalist, wallstreet oriented, outsourced system.

    Using this opportunity to discuss these issues would probably be a good way not to let this crisis go to waste.

    • Agree: Ben tillman
    • Replies: @Hunsdon
  34. Neoconned says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    If you google “china accuses us corona” and hit the news tab you’ll see dozens of stories regarding how the Chinese govt is blaming our military aka the neocons for this outbreak….almist as if they’d been reading this site….anyway that’s an interesting theory regarding the “bubble of everything…..”

    What better way for the Fed & CIA to stop a deflationary depression?

    • Replies: @Morris Applebaum IV
  35. @Charon

    …the nCoV is a genuine Black Swan event.

    Is it?

    I’m still not seeing smoldering corpse pyramids with Corona-chan dancing on top on the news….

    CUPID-19 CoronaChan

    I LOVE YOU CORONA-CHAN!

  36. Luke Lea says:

    Lubos Motl is taking an opposite, cost-benefit approach and I must say I am beginning to agree with him. At what point is the cure worse than the disease?

    In this particular case, where it is mostly the elderly and therefore no longer working part of the population, it would seem to make more sense to limit social distancing to that one segment of the population, with everyone else going on with their lives as before. The reduction in world GDP which the current global response — taking its cue from Leninist China no less! — is simply not worth the extra benefit of extendings the lives of this one vulnerable demographic, which is already near the end of its expected life span.

    Why not? Because it fails to take into account the number of human life years ruined by a world-wide recession (depression?) that the current response seems to be triggering.

  37. Of the 69 deaths in the U.S. attributed to the Wuhan virus, 47, or 60%, have occurred in Washington state; and 27, or 40%, have been connected to a single nursing home in that state.

    These deaths in the U.S. appear to have been either of old and otherwise sick people — people already with one foot in the grave; or of a few people in their forties or fifties already sick with serious, chronic conditions including heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, and emphysema.

    In Italy, where the outbreak is greater, the average age of those whose deaths have been attributed to the virus is reported to be 81.6.

  38. Matra says:
    @Sean

    Taleb’s ideas may have influenced the British government’s coronavirus policy

    Taleb referred to the UK policy as “speculative lunacy”.

    • Replies: @Sean
    , @Lurker
  39. @Lurker

    me thinks that “danand” is projecting onto the posters here.

  40. Art Deco says:

    He’s not a leading anything. He was a professor of finance with a slim bibliography who hit on a grift as a peddler of disaster scenarios. The people who book him don’t bother to check his skills as a progosticator. So provactive. Great for Charlie Rose.

    • Agree: The Z Blog
    • LOL: miss marple
    • Replies: @ATBOTL
    , @Mr. Anon
  41. Anonymous[269] • Disclaimer says:

    But I think deep down, the answer that set him on his life work as our leading theoretician of disaster would be: “How does 15 years of civil war sound?”

    Nope. Taleb is driven by his own tribal narcissism and jealousies. His driving question is: “How does other talented groups wielding power sound?”

  42. Liza says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    Of course they knew a financial crisis was coming. So why not find some exotic virus to act as the “cause”.

    Go buy your pallet of toilet paper, dummies. It sure will fill you up when there’s no food on the shelves or on your table.

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
  43. Liza says:

    Viruses/germs/bacteria etc. will not kill everyone. Only the weakest.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Disagree: Pheasant
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    , @Pheasant
  44. @Luke Lea

    I agree with you, Mr. Lea, but would like to add that this economy is a house of cards anyway. Something was gonna cause a big reset. If it wasn’t this infotainment panic-fest, it’d have been something else soon enough.

    People may come out better for all this. As I wrote before, the best thing I see is the closing down of the schools for the medium term, causing many parents to see the light. Even my wife showed me some video of a preacher (OK, this is not completely related) talking about the anti-religious/woke shit that they teach in the schools. My response: “No shit!”, haha. I was glad to see her finally understand.

    We are doing addition and subtraction of fractions this morning, as I write. My 8 y/o is finding common denominators and then adding/subtracting the numerators. It’s the first time he’s ever done ANYTHING with the actual fractions, and it’s only taken 45 minutes while he eats his breakfast, and he’s pretty much got it. (I gave him 3 more, and I will check them in a bit here.)

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
  45. Anon[269] • Disclaimer says:
    @IHTG

    The demographic transformation of Lebanon was no unpredictable Black Swan, though.

    Please elaborate.

    • Replies: @Pheasant
  46. El Dato says:

    Rifts appearing faster than cracks in ice subjected to global warming.

    European solidarity doesn’t exist, only China can help us: Serbia goes full emergency over coronavirus

    One might argue that Serbia has already seen the Depleted Uranium Business End of Europe (and mainly of Germany looking for Ghadaffi-like baddies that can be sold via tabloids) at least once in the post-Cold War era, so there will not be much goodwill.

  47. Altai says:

    This is why I always got mad at people tut-tutting about the response to Ebola. I always want the WHO and others to act aggressive to all novel outbreaks, by the time you realise how serious it is, it’s too late.

    But since these events are so rare it’s perfectly reasonable to test out the measures to deal with potentially far worse pandemics that epidemiologists have been concerned with since the advent of mass international travel that we have today that has so ably spread ‘Covid-19’ so rapidly.

  48. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @Luke Lea

    Useless Eaters

  49. The Worst that Could Happen is we all get infected and reinfected until we all die.

    Taleb’s precautionary principle is prima facie wrong, incorrect, and dangerous. Dress it up with all the fancy math (“long tails” and other ‘model-replacing-reality’ bullshit) you like. You don’t base decisions of ‘what might happen’ without some idea about the evidence for that ‘what might happen’. Period.

    If the precautionary principle were true, we should all prepare for the alien invasion that will enslave us all, because, hey, it might happen.

  50. ATBOTL says:
    @Art Deco

    We know neocons don’t like him, you don’t have to remind us.

  51. Altai says:

    An interesting example of this mentality is the supposed ideal among traditional Native North American leaders considering the impact of any decision for many generations.

    Funnily enough in an editorial about the fight about the new telescope being built on a sacred Hawaiian mountaintop I found an example of an SJW expressing this ideal, albeit in a supposedly uniquely Hawaiian form. If you ask me it sounds an awful lot like social conservationism. (Which sounds an awful lot like social collectivism, which has also been very popular in every communist society. Or, just ‘society’ as humans would have called it for humanity’s whole history until about a few decades ago.)

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02304-1

    To Native Hawaiians, kapu requires us as members of society to exercise caution: to question whether an action should be taken. Recognizing that which is kapu — in need of being regulated or set aside — is a cornerstone of Hawaiian values of caring for people and place. Strictures on how to interact with the land abound in traditional songs, chants and oral histories. Mauna Kea — with its high elevation and clear skies — offers a powerful opportunity to study the Universe, but that potential must be weighed against the potential for further harm, evident in past management.

    Sadly the ruling ‘immigrants uber alles’ mentality prevents the mixed race woman who identifies as Native Hawaiian from observing that demographic displacement has been pretty bad for Native Hawaiians and is bad for anyone. Ultimately Native Hawaiians would rather not have the mountain that holds so much meaning to them play host to another giant radio telescope but due to being a poor minority as a result of conquest and demographic displacement, it doesn’t matter because the Howlies putting the telescope there just see it as a piece of rock in a distant land. Impressively though she finds a way to condemn Western civilisation and Western science without saying ‘I kinda wish Hawaii was still for the Hawaiians’.

    • Replies: @El Dato
    , @Jack D
    , @Jack D
  52. Edward says:

    Mnuchin just said: ‘THE FED IS AHEAD OF THE ISSUES … NOBODY HAS TO PULL MONEY OUT OF THE BANKS’

    To me, this screams: “take your money out of the bank, now!”

    Panic evolved for a reason. Those who panic now, pay less later on.

  53. So some bad actor tried to hack HHS and some other bad actor is sending out texts about a national lockdown. Got to think that Putin, The ChiComms, Iran, and the Norks all have plans to exploit/degrade/disrupt the Internet, The Electrical Grid, Water Treatment and such.

    Hunker down folks.

  54. UK says:

    Notably, the full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not be tested and will not be identified. Such cases therefore cannot be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent COVID-19 cases

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

    And with this handwave, The Lancet continues to feed into the panic.

    In reality, of the people sick enough to get tested the mortality rate may be 3%…this makes it the flu. I’ve probably had the flu but I’ve never been tested for it because I’ve never been sick enough.

    There isn’t even a test for the asymptomatic with Coronovirus…probably the majority of “sufferers”. The ridiculous 70% will get it and 3% of those will die calculations are completely wrong. 70% will get it, but only a small percentage of those will get significantly sick and 3% of those will die.

    It isn’t that this virus only attacks the rich and in rich countries. It is that those are the people most likely to get tested. The statistically extremely improbable number of politicians who have it in countries with few cases proves it. The almost complete lack of children tested positive does the same.

    This whole episode is going to look so unbelievably embarrassing in a couple of year’s time. Not as embarrassing as the Unzian line that this minor illness is actually a super special biowarfare attack though (-;

    Totally idle speculation: They may even find that it has been around a lot longer than suspected and that no one noticed. Perhaps the military games happening in Wuhan wasn’t a coincidence, it was simply the point when enough people got cramped together in dry, cold conditions to ramp up the spread. I assume there was a significant audience. Was Iran at the games? Did their more fanatical soldiers all go to Qom afterwards?

  55. The Z Blog says: • Website
    @Luke Lea

    The Steely Truth Of Stalin https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=20069

    The flatten the curve guys forgot that trade-offs are unavoidable.

  56. Mr. Anon says:
    @Art Deco

    The people who book him don’t bother to check his skills as a progosticator.

    Nobody has checked yours either, but since nobody cares what you think it hardly matters.

    The annoying, pedantic nobody known as Art Deco is upset that he was never booked on Charlie Rose.

  57. Thoughts says:
    @Luke Lea

    I disagree.

    Sure 80 year olds are f–ed

    But a lot of 40 somethings, 50 somethings, and 60 somethings are too

    And they are still VERY productive people

    And like Steve said….

    If the non-mild form of this thing has any lasting consequences….your lung tissue permanently damaged…

    That could be REALLY bad

    Also your missing the whole point of using up hospital beds which takes hospital beds away from the young who can be easily treated.

    Your way only works if we put 80 year olds out in the parking lot to die.

  58. El Dato says:
    @Altai

    host to another giant radio telescope

    That’s an optical telescope. Because it’s a mountain. Like in “high up above ground”.

    “Radio telescopes” (i.e. large arrays of antennas) are at ground level in deserts, like New Mexico, or if you want to surround them with parabolic tinfoil surfaces, in troughs.

    And seriously, what’s with the naysayers. Gimme that optical telescope. Ghostly ancestors suddenly telegraphing from the other side that they are worried about a mountaintop that morphs itself all the time anyway because it’s a fricking volcano? Seriously. Fuck that shit, get with the program. Tired of hearing about everyone’s personal pressure points all the time.

  59. UK says:

    Also, for the bloke who keeps talking about weather and Coronavirus, you haven’t been entirely original, others do look into it.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-coronavirus-be-affected-by-temperature

    It will likely turn out that it has a substantial effect and that all of those amazing East Asian responses turn out to be weather driven instead.

    It’ll be amazing when all of this turns out to be a minor seasonal illness against which global furious human action did very little, except of course finally deflate the asset boom, that needed to be deflated regardless.

    …maybe that’s the real conspiracy?!?!?! It’ll certainly be the theory all of the nuts retreat to once this whole thing reveals…

  60. Mr. Anon says:

    “How does 15 years of civil war sound?”

    Yeah, but Lebanon was a country deeply riven by political faction and ethnic and religious differences and………….

    ……………uh, uh, nevermind.

  61. El Dato says:
    @Luke Lea

    Lubos should maybe throw away his beloved no-benefit, resource-hoovering Sting Theory going by a logic like that.

    Because it fails to take into account the number of human life years ruined by a world-wide recession (depression?) that the current response seems to be triggering.

    How many years are that?

    The hankering after the GDP number is numerical fetishism of the worst kind in any case. Does that number tell us anything except that it’s good at giving us the illusion of knowledge? No. It’s just a number. It’s bereft of any structure. The body temperature of a druggie near death. 37.5° – we are all fine!

  62. dearieme says:
    @LemmusLemmus

    It’s probably far too soon to know what’s worked well.

    You might as well judge a marathon runner by how far he’s travelled in the first minute of the race.

    • Agree: Polynikes
  63. J.Ross says:

    If Taleb doesn’t see that the Democrat panic is a Democrat weapon using economic means for political ends (and that we can respect the situation properly without building a mountain of toulet paper) then he is at times as dumb as everyone accused.

  64. dearieme says:
    @Charon

    the nCoV is a genuine Black Swan event

    Nope: the fact that so many governments had planned for this, or its like, means it wasn’t a black swan.

    It was a white swan with an unknown time of arrival. Rather like a batty old aunt.

  65. dearieme says:
    @Luke Lea

    That’s approximately the UK policy, as published in 2011 and adopted by the present government.

    Whether Boris will stand up against the rising tide of hysteria is doubtful. I hope he does.

    • Replies: @UK
  66. George says:
    @LemmusLemmus

    Italy: 20,603 active cases with 1,672 serious.

    Shutting down the economy over 1672 cases might result in more lives lost and mayhem than not having those restrictions.

    Active cases that don’t become serious are potentially immune people who might be very useful to have around.

    I am guessing that mild cases are mostly among younger people. So why quarantine young people? Isn’t young people developing immunity in their youth the way things are supposed to work? Wouldn’t everyone be better off if a large number of immune young people existed, so they could care for the seriously ill more efficietly?

  67. Panic is good gutless. Then again, what can you expect from a world largely controlled by women?

  68. Anon[102] • Disclaimer says:

    If there is anything that indicates that panic is bad, look at the Diamond Princess cruise ship statistics. They had a Covid-19 outbreak earlier than all other places except for China. But after an initial 6 deaths, they’ve only had 1 more in the last 2 weeks. Their deaths have essentially stopped.

    Let me repeat that. Their deaths have stopped. The virus pretty much nailed anyone who was likely to die in the earliest days. This is what a study from China found. Mainly, that the people most likely to die go in the first week of infection.

  69. Anon[485] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    Airlines now are squealing for a bailout: they say they’re about to go bust.

    Is that a bad thing? Why are airlines moving people around? Just stop it. Keep people where they are.

  70. Jack D says:
    @Altai

    This mystical native anti-scientific stuff is always complete bullshit that is selectively employed to accomplish some short term modern political goal.

    The real system of kapu (any breach of which was punishable by death) included such offenses as men and women eating together. Also certain foods such as pork were forbidden to women but not to men. Kapu has absolutely zilch to do with putting a telescope on a mountain because they didn’t have telescopes or any concept of doing scientific research for the betterment of mankind. Does the author support bringing back kapu in full or only when it suits him?

  71. Anon[485] • Disclaimer says:

    I’m watching a Norwegian guy on his YouTube sailing channel. Interestingly …

    — Barber shops and hair salons are shut down

    — Airports are shut down

    — Norway’s farms kind of faded out, so all the food is imported, and Denmark closed its borders and shipoing is slowing down

  72. @Sean

    Is England surpassing itself?

  73. Semi-OT:

    I would love to have some of the drugs that Tim Berners-Lee, founder of the World Wide Web and apparently an enormous cuck, is smoking:

    Internet ‘is not working for women and girls’, says Berners-Lee

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/2020/mar/12/internet-not-working-women-girls-tim-berners-lee

    Women and girls face a “growing crisis” of online harms, with sexual harassment, threatening messages and discrimination making the web an unsafe place to be, Sir Tim Berners-Lee has warned.

    The inventor of the world wide web said the “dangerous trend” in online abuse was forcing women out of jobs, causing girls to skip school, damaging relationships and silencing female opinions, prompting him to conclude that “the web is not working for women and girls”.

    Wut?

    Is this the same internet that women have used to destroy thousands of men’s lives with pure hearsay?

    • Replies: @Dennis Dale
  74. Jack D says:
    @Altai

    demographic displacement has been pretty bad for Native Hawaiians

    Yes and no. Pre-contact Hawaiians were a stone age people (who BTW first arrived there possibly as late as the 10th century AD) who constantly engaged in tribal warfare with each other. They would have lived at a subsistence level and most would have died young due to lack of any kind of medical care if they weren’t killed sooner in battle. Had the white man never arrived, they would have a standard of living comparable to that on say Kiribati today ($1,600 per capita).

    When you build these imaginary palaces of purity, you have to consider the bad with the good. OTOH, they wouldn’t have the white man’s telescope on their sacred mountain. OTOH, they would be living in grass huts without a can of SPAM in sight.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  75. @Charon

    … the nCoV is a genuine Black Swan event.

    Maybe i just don’t know what a “black swan” is supposed to be.

    But it’s hard to think of anything that is less of a surprise then having disease sweep quickly all over the world in this age of globalization and cheap international air travel–much less a respiratory disease from China. (That’s a shocker!)

    Yeah, i had no idea it was coming this year–or even this decade. (We could have just continued to have flame outs like SARS.) But I’ve been predicting we’d have something like this for decades–and not because i’m a genius, but because it’s obvious, baked in. And honestly CoVId-19 is an under-performer. Worse–something that actually mows down young healthy people in droves–will certainly come.

    ~~

    If there’s anything even less “black swany” than this it is speculative bubbles and particularly the 2007-08 housing bubble pop which me, my brother, most of my friends … pretty much every intelligent person i know, was predicting for at least a couple three years. (But apparently makes Taleb a “genius”.)

    • Agree: Dissident, Autochthon
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    , @Charon
  76. d.dicon says:

    if only the (Christian) Lebanese had put their panic to good use and keep their nation, instead of uselessly begging the West to help them in their already dead struggle.
    They preferred to come over and sell carpets and take over telecoms, and be the equivalent of Jews among the Latin Christians.
    Taleb always has a lot of answers, to make sure no right one is found. again, very Semitical.

    at any rate, we have to overreact by quarantining for 2-4 weeks to get the identified ones at home long enough; or not do so at all. it’s too late for half measures, and too early for months of European/Asian style police state.

    during the swine flu masks were handed out and hand sanitizer in a lot of buildings. the deep state was still friendly enough, even if misleadingly…

  77. @Luke Lea

    I think the UK’S strategy of letting the disease take it’s course will end badly. I’d bet by summer there will be regrets and recriminations with Johnson pushed out at the earliest opportunity. The US could probably have gotten better results doing this in the rural areas but in densely populated cities the crisis in Italy will likely be repeated.

    Also many of those 70-somethings still hold important jobs because they aren’t easily replaced. Care for the elderly is also an important component of the economy with many if not most paying for it from a lifetime of earnings. There’s more an issue of younger people never pulling their own weight economically and never going to but society wouldn’t even consider ending these lives a little early…

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Autochthon
    , @Jack D
  78. @The Wild Geese Howard

    Is this virus really that bad, or is it being used as cover to deflate the asset bubble that has built up since ’09, or ’01 by some measures?

    Honestly, that’s a question I’d like to know the answer to after the fact. You know, hopefully it’s the latter, cause that’s infinitely better than former.

    Gut instinct tells me that something’s up, though. The elites rarely ever show signs of panic; I’m not getting any vibes of this being a “controlled burn” for whatever purpose.

  79. Dissident says:

    From the Do I as I Say, Not as I Do file:
    Bill de Blasio hits public gym, flouting coronavirus rules amid city shutdown

    [MORE]

    Broadway is dark, the city’s 1.1 million public school students are home from school, and the Big Apple’s 27,000 restaurants will close their doors to diners Tuesday — but none of those warnings could keep Mayor Bill de Blasio from a trip to his favorite public gym in Brooklyn on Monday morning.

    Meanwhile, I’m still waiting for an explanation of The Lesbian Past of Bill de Blasio’s Wife. Specifically, how does Gotham’s First Couple reconcile that admission against interest with the doctrine– one that they clearly purport not only to subscribe-to but to tyrannically enforce— that homosexuality is always, without exception, both innate as well as immutable?

  80. J.Ross says:

    We have some photographic evidence and even some mainstream news stories about how the grocery shortages were not organic widespread panic, they were a small number of operators seeking to gouge a future panic, and generating a wider panic in the process. These people should be investigated and prosecuted, and in the mean time online vendors should kill their sales.

  81. J.Ross says:
    @AnotherDad

    Agree and so has every health authority, mainstream and fringe, been predicting for the same reasons, for quite a while now.

  82. Anon[102] • Disclaimer says:

    I am already seeing how our attempts at quarantine (and its current euphemism, social distancing), are going to end. Milan and regional environs has around 3+ million people. If its current death rate continues at around 250 or so a day, the other 3 million are going to get mad if they’re locked up and not working if the quarantine lasts for more than 1 month. That’s all their patience is going to last for such a low death rate. 250 a day is close to the current death rate from Covid-19 in the Milan region.

    If it was 5000 a day, they’d stay quarantined, but 250 a day plus their usual death rate is low enough they’ll start thinking the risk is low, and they’ll start breaking quarantine and going outside and going back to work. 250 a day for one month is only 7500 people. That still leaves 3 million+ alive that month who need to make their usual rent/mortgate/car payments and have enough cash to buy groceries.

    Both Boris Johnson and Trump are correct. Unless you’re China, you’re not going to be able to do more than a limited quarantine in any Western country for more than a short while. I’d give it 3 weeks before the natives get restless and impatient. We are not as obedient as the Chinese are, and we don’t like curbs on our freedom to roam.

    Once you make people pay the cost of quarantine, they’ll do their own cost-benefit analysis compared to the risk of death, and the average person is going to cancel quarantine no matter what their leaders say.

    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
  83. @Jack D

    This mystical native anti-scientific stuff is always complete bullshit that is selectively employed to accomplish some short term modern political goal.

    This.

    Yes and no. Pre-contact Hawaiians were a stone age people (who BTW first arrived there possibly as late as the 10th century AD) who constantly engaged in tribal warfare with each other. They would have lived at a subsistence level and most would have died young due to lack of any kind of medical care if they weren’t killed sooner in battle.

    When the Polynesians first paddled up, i think Hawaii was about as good as it gets for primitive man.

    Mild climate, lush vegetation, coconuts, fruits burgeon. Gorgeous scenery. And … an island, safe from whatever the latest viral stew the Chinese are cooking up. Just a lot of fishing and fucking.

    But then guess what? Babies come. The islands quickly fill up. And then all you can do is go and attack the next island–grab their turf, grab their women. And even if you’re not motivated–your island is doing well, your pigs are fat, you’ve got a nice curvy gal to enjoy–doesn’t matter cause the guys on some other island are coming for your stuff! The nature of a place that is environmentally rich and disease free … only warfare can keep the numbers down.

    This is the nature of life. It’s a battle for existence. Whether it’s a coronavirus or a human.
    You either fight to keep your stuff or someone (or something) is coming to take it from you.

    This minoritarian–“minorities are special”–mind virus has rotted Western man’s mind and he’s lost track of this basic truth. He’s not protecting his turf–so predictable people are coming to take it from him.

    • Agree: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Jack D
  84. Yngvar says:

    Greetings from sunny Norway!

    A brother just arrived from a foreign trip. He was ordered to autoquarantine or else… ($2000 fine or gaol.)

    Urban Norwegians escaping the dread to stay in their cabins in the woods and mountains have been ordered to return home. Local municipalities health authorities is in no way prepared to deal with an outbreak from anyone but the locals. The National Guard are being mobilized to forcibly kick out the recalcitrant.

    It’s all so quiet.

  85. Any cases reported in the Northern Sentinel Islands yet?

    • Replies: @epebble
  86. Anonymous[331] • Disclaimer says:

    Sailer goes with the Arab money shifter to justify his hysteria over a mild virus.

    I think I’ll go with the Jewish Nobel Laureate and Stanford professor.

    Corona Is Slowing Down, Humanity Will Survive, Says Biophysicist Michael Levitt

    Nobel laureate and Stanford professor Michael Levitt unexpectedly became a reassuring figure in China at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. Now he assures Israelis: statistics show the virus is on a downturn.

    Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who teaches structural biology at Stanford University and spends much of his time in Tel Aviv, unexpectedly became a household name in China, offering the public reassurance during the peak of the country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. Levitt did not discover a treatment or a cure, just did what he does best: crunched the numbers. The statistics led him to the conclusion that, contrary to the grim forecasts being bandied about, the spread of the virus will come to a halt.

    https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html

    • Replies: @David88
  87. Malcolm Y says:

    From Wikipedia:

    In social choice theory, Arrow’s impossibility theorem, the general possibility theorem or Arrow’s paradox is an impossibility theorem stating that when voters have three or more distinct alternatives (options), no ranked voting electoral system can convert the ranked preferences of individuals into a community-wide (complete and transitive) ranking while also meeting a specified set of criteria: unrestricted domain, non-dictatorship, Pareto efficiency, and independence of irrelevant alternatives. The theorem is often cited in discussions of voting theory as it is further interpreted by the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem. The theorem is named after economist and Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow, who demonstrated the theorem in his doctoral thesis and popularized it in his 1951 book Social Choice and Individual Values. The original paper was titled “A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare”.[1]

    Possibly replacing preferences with actions applies to this situation.

  88. Professor Taleb comes from the once-ruling Christian elite of Lebanon, back when it was “the Switzerland of the Middle East.”

    Or Switzerland was the Lebanon of the Alps. Harry Browne in one of his earliest books touted Switzerland. He listed countries in the order of the gold backing of their currencies. Switzerland finished second with ca. 25%, far above most. In the #1 spot was Lebanon, with an astonishing 40%.

    Obviously, gold backing is a good thing, but not the only thing.

  89. danand says:

    Idria Elba test positive:

  90. Romanian says: • Website

    Does anyone have the full Taleb article? I cannot find it anywhere.

  91. Anon[306] • Disclaimer says:
    @DanHessinMD

    Exponential growth. Numbers may seem tiny one day, and much bigger the next.

    If we dodge the bullet because of active measures, you will probably be saying “pffft….I knew it was fake…we cratered the economy for nothing”.

  92. @RichardTaylor

    One good thing from this (I hope) will be a review of our public health system.

    And why can’t we always have cheap drive through stations that test us for all kinds of bugs?

    The answer to your question is located in the instruction booklet, available at irs.gov, for form 1040. Near the back of the booklet (page 103) is a pie chart showing where the money goes. Note the amount that goes for medicare, medicade, and to some extent the military. i.e. veterans medical operations, etc.

    At least half of the money paid in goes, in one form or another, to the medical industry. That’s why you can’t have cheap, drive through medical service. The legal industry which makes the rules, in conjunction with the medical industry, wont allow it.

    Always follow the money.

  93. UK says:
    @dearieme

    It might be the only thing those very sensible scientists didn’t model was political ability to withstand mass hysteria.

    There may be an incentive for a government to do the wrong thing simply because everyone is scratching out their eyeballs and screaming at the moon in order to demand it.

    I’m still optimistic though and believe that we are really quite lucky to have been gifted an exceptional government at this time. Brexit reintroduced a sense of purpose, general noblesse oblige and unity in a substantial section of our ruling class.

  94. At least Trump looks and sounds far better than he did Friday and his Corona test came back negative.

    Otherwise we’d be looking at a full-on 25th Amendment circus at this point.

  95. anon[405] • Disclaimer says:

    Covid-19 may prove to be a black swan in the sense that it is uniquely damaging.

    It isn’t severe enough to take Ebola like precautions. But it is too severe to simply treat like seasonal flu. We have made enough advances in molecular biology and virology to have created expectations that it is manageable using modern techniques yet they seem frustratingly out of reach. Social media hasn’t really helped much and I expect it will make things worse before it’s all over.

    I would say a catastrophic astroid collision with earth would qualify as a black swan, but not the typical low probability event that happen all the time.

  96. @Lockean Proviso

    Current cover of The Economist…

    Wow…now they’re just rubbing our noses in it…

  97. @Neoconned

    The difference is they’re not dumb enough to believe it.

  98. @The Wild Geese Howard

    Is this virus really that bad, or is it being used as cover to deflate the asset bubble that has built up since ’09, or ’01 by some measures?

    Since ’64.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Society

    Although when JFK “jawboned” the steel industry while leaning on the FED behind the curtain didn’t help any either. When the FED stopped taking away the punch bowl our fate was sealed.

  99. @Anon

    But after an initial 6 deaths, they’ve only had 1 more in the last 2 weeks. Their deaths have essentially stopped.

    Is the media still covering this? I haven’t seen any cruise ship headlines lately.

    This is a great, actual data that makes the current hysteria look even more ridiculous.

    • Agree: Houston 1992
    • Replies: @anon
    , @Houston 1992
  100. Anon7 says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    I’m wondering why we haven’t heard anything from the military. A Nimitz-class aircraft carrier has 6,000 people working in incredibly close quarters, just for one example. Don’t they make port calls all over the world?

    Military leaders aren’t usually the sort to panic; what is their assessment?

    • Replies: @Anon7
  101. Jack D says:
    @AnotherDad

    The islands quickly fill up.

    Polynesia was unique in that there were a number of uninhabited islands, spaced far apart, some of which were not discovered until almost modern times. If you could find one, it was yours. No one lived in New Zealand until 1350. THAT was a hell of a find. Most of them just found little rocky atolls.

    The way that they think this worked is that young single men with nothing to lose would set out in their outrigger canoes. Probably 99% of the exploration parties were lost at sea or eaten by the locals at their first landfall on an inhabited island (this was almost as good as having your excess youth killed in battle – in polygamous societies older men are always trying to get rid of youthful competitors. Mormon polygamist cults are notorious for chasing off their male youth at the earliest possible age). But 1% would find an uninhabited place, figure out how to return home, bring a settlement party and find the place a 2nd time.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  102. @Achmed E. Newman

    No shit. Common Core math is super retarded. When I help my elementary age kids I find I am undoing the nonsense they are taught at school, and they attend a Catholic school. Thankfully my two high schoolers attend Hillsdale Academy and are able to think for themselves.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  103. Neal says:

    Well, he’s not even following his own advice.
    There’s a huge list of things that he need to panic now and yet he doesn’t.
    On top of the list are the potential millions of people who ran out of toilet paper, lost their jobs, their porfolio, etc… that would like to punch him in the face if they ever met him.
    What’s the probability of that happening?
    Non-zero?
    Start panicking… now!
    Go to your bunker and never come out again.

  104. @Yngvar

    “It’s all so quiet.”

    My nieces create songs sporting the lyrical and melodic naivete of Björk but without the 12-piece jazz band or symphonic electronica haze. Björk is like an eternal child. It’s astonishing that grown-ass adults pay for her music.

  105. danand says:

    Did the entire US just go into lockdown, or is it just the San Francisco and Los Angels areas? 1st review of order date in April 7th.

  106. @Rob Lee

    I agree with your comment, Mr. Lee, but here:

    in the very small (yet probably inevitable) chance

    That doesn’t make sense – small chance or probably inevitable (meaning large chance)?

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  107. @RichardTaylor

    Because drive through testing would have a disparate adverse impact on you know who. You have to have a car to use drive through services, don’t you?

    And a valid DL, inshoance, inspection sticker, current tags, no outstanding warrants etc.

  108. J.Ross says:

    The panic-creating gougers who sell hygeine materials at huge markups rely on their friend, Amazon dot com, which hosts their online stores and enables their crime, but don’t worry: Amazon is moving to ban a book which nobody reads, which is in the public domain, and which can be instantly downloaded for free in any edition or major language. Oh, I mean, they’re banning most editions of it, but you will still be able to get the edition that (I guess) they like.
    Can we please have some government interference in the market on emergency grounds?
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/mar/16/amazon-bans-sale-of-most-editions-of-adolf-hitlers-mein-kampf

  109. @The Wild Geese Howard

    The latter,

    Trump really lucked out.
    He’s lashed himself to the economy for years, the bust was inevitable but has now been caused by the country who he has been warning about and fighting with from day one, despite the entire establishment telling him he was wrong.

  110. Jack D says:

    OT: A reminder to all Lindbergh fans here at Unz: Tonight on HBO is the premiere of a new alternate history series call “The Plot Against America”. In this version of history, Lindbergh is elected President in 1940 and flies to Iceland to make peace with Hitler and keep American boys from dying.

    I think the “plot against America” refers to the Soviet and British agents who try to trick America into joining the war but I haven’t seen the show so I’m not sure. I could be wrong about that part. But anyway I think y’all will get a big kick out of a series that shows the genuine American hero Lindbergh being elected President instead of that Rosenfeld guy.

    • LOL: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Charon
  111. Anon[360] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    Already given thumbs down from Jewish groups.

    THE JERUSALEM POST

    Head of Spielberg’s Holocaust foundation tells Amazon to drop ‘Hunters’

    By CNAAN LIPHSHIZ/JTA MARCH 16, 2020 02:58

    The director of the Holocaust foundation founded by Steven Spielberg has called on Amazon Prime not to produce a second season of “Hunters,” its fictional show about a crew of Nazi hunters in 1970s America.

    “Survivors of the Shoah sought justice, not revenge,” Stephen Smith, who heads the USC Shoah Foundation Institute, the archive of survivor testimonies initiated by Spielberg in 1994, wrote in an op-ed published Thursday by the Jewish Journal. By blurring the difference, he wrote, the show “collapses all meaningful differences between victim and perpetrator.”
    Smith, a renowned British scholar on the Holocaust, cited one scene in the pilot in which the vigilante avengers of a protagonist portrayed by Al Pacino gas a former Nazi chemist in her shower.
    “Jews never gassed Nazis. Period. That I must even make this point is proof enough how perilous this slippery slope can become,” Smith wrote. “Amazon must not renew it for a second season.

    https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Head-of-Spielbergs-Holocaust-foundation-tells-Amazon-to-drop-Hunters-620923

    • Replies: @Morris Applebaum IV
  112. Anon[457] • Disclaimer says:
    @miss marple

    Our big cities are mainly Democratic. They’re not voting for Trump anyway.

    “Also many of those 70-somethings still hold important jobs because they aren’t easily replaced. […] There’s more an issue of younger people never pulling their own weight economically and never going to but society wouldn’t even consider ending these lives a little early.”

    The younger folk would be able to get those important, high paying jobs if the 70-year olds died off. That would allow the younger folk to be able to ‘pull their economic weight.’

  113. @Anon

    Illegal aliens have probably killed more people in the US in the last 75 days than the Covid19.

    • Replies: @OscarWildeLoveChild
  114. yaph says:
    @UK

    In countries without a mass testing protocol the death rate looks like ten percent, as the number of tests goes up the death rate goes down and converges on two percent. That suggests that the opposite of what you are saying.

    • Replies: @UK
    , @Intelligent Dasein
  115. MEH 0910 says:

    • Replies: @JimDandy
  116. vhrm says:

    Is the Taleb thing an actual paper or just that one pager ?

    The one pager is fine but banal and has a comical definition of overreaction that apparently precludes any foresight.

    By this paper’s argument if you’re driving at a wall it’s “irrational” to hit the brakes at any time. I mean you’re absolutely fine until you perceive the pain from your leg being crushed, after your car has already made contact with the wall, right?

  117. @Liza

    A few days ago in my local Waitrose (the up-market supermarket in Britain) I was feeling proud of my fellow snobs and their lack of the panic bug: no empty shelves, no long lines, no harried looks, no raised voices.

    And then I turned the corner to where the loo roles normally patiently sit: and behold, twenty feet of pure emptiness.

    I actually laughed out loud.

  118. Charon says:
    @Jack D

    Very funny. As if you don’t know what the infamous Philip Roth novel is all about. Far from being depicted as a hero, Lindbergh is shown as satanic as he leads the nation into an orgy of anti-semitism.

    White people are depicted similarly and parallels to Trump are played up in the HBO version. The series is psychotically paranoid and explicitly anti-white, even by Hollywood standards. Your pretend-naïve post is what’s politely known as a ‘concern troll’.

  119. JimDandy says:
    @MEH 0910

    Turn all the Journalism schools into field hospitals.

  120. Sean says:
    @Matra

    ‘Taleb’s ideas’ would be his original ones like Antifragility, which nay have affected the way Halpern advised the government. The whole world thought the policy Halpern advocated and got adopted was mad.

    Anyway, Boris Johnson has just done a U turn and announced a total lockdown. There may be a curfew.

    Boris Johnson has unveiled a series of hugely stringent new restrictions to slow what he said was the now-rapid spread of coronavirus in the UK, including a 14-day isolation for all households with symptoms, a warning against “non-essential” contact, including trips to pubs and clubs, and an end to all mass gatherings. See 6.15pm for a summary of Johnson’s unprecedented announcement.

    A number of people died of coronavirus in London yesterday you see, and all the decision makers live south of Watford

  121. Charon says:
    @AnotherDad

    Yeah, i had no idea it was coming this year–or even this decade.

    That gives you a rough idea.

    I’ve been predicting we’d have something like this for decades

    Will you please link some of the posts in question?

    I agree that China’s extreme overpopulation and consistently vile treatment of animal food sources is an obvious source of pathogens. But the fact that there can (and doubtless will) be even worse epidemics doesn’t lessen any implications of this one.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  122. Charon says:
    @Yngvar

    Urban Norwegians escaping the dread to stay in their cabins in the woods and mountains have been ordered to return home.

    Will you (or anyone) please tell me what the purpose of such an order might be?

    • Replies: @Yngvar
    , @Anon
  123. @anonymous

    This is the most important post currently on unz.com. imo

  124. @Jonathan Silber

    And if this ends before Halloween, entire neighborhoods are going to be tee-peed.

  125. epebble says:
    @Old Palo Altan

    This is not far from me https://www.fox5ny.com/news/do-not-call-911-just-because-you-ran-out-of-toilet-paper-oregon-police-say

    Amusing but helpful info:

    It’s hard to believe that we even have to post this. Do not call 9-1-1 just because you ran out of toilet paper. You will survive without our assistance.

    In fact, history offers many other options for you in your time of need if you cannot find a roll of your favorite soft, ultra plush two-ply citrus scented tissue.

    Seamen used old rope and anchor lines soaked in salt water. Ancient Romans used a sea sponge on a stick, also soaked in salt water. We are a coastal town. We have an abundance of salt water available. Sea shells were also used.

    Mayans used corn cobs. Colonial Americans also used the core of the cob. Farmers not only used corn cobs, but used pages from the Farmers Almanac. Many Americans took advantage of the numerous pages torn from free catalogs such as Sears and Roebuck. The Sears Christmas catalog, four times thicker than the normal catalog, could get a family of three wiped clean from December through Valentine’s Day; or Saint Patrick’s Day if they were frugal.

    Then, of course, there are always alternatives to toilet paper. Grocery receipts, newspaper, cloth rags, lace, cotton balls, and that empty toilet paper roll sitting on the holder right now. Plus, there are a variety of leaves you can safely use. Mother Earth News magazine will even tell you how to make your own wipes using fifteen different leaves. When all else fails, you have magazine pages. Start saving those catalogs you get in the mail that you usually toss into the recycle bin. Be resourceful. Be patient. There is a TP shortage. This too shall pass. Just don’t call 9-1-1. We cannot bring you toilet paper.

    • Replies: @Liza
  126. Liza says:
    @Old Palo Altan

    and behold, twenty feet of pure emptiness.

    Only 20 feet! Tsk, tsk. Such poverty, such lack of choice! Here, it’s more like 40 feet of shelf space devoted to toilet paper. And, yes, it was all gone by the time I got to the supermarket a couple of days ago.

    I am more concerned about being out of food, though I don’t buy excessively and don’t hoard.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    , @Mr. Anon
  127. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    I’m going to assume he wants something to be done about the internet’s corrupting of morals through porn and social media–in his gut he knows making the present generation of women sluts from the cradle is repulsive and disastrous–but he has to frame his concerns in feminist twaddle.

    I suspect a lot of older lefties act in this way–“MeToo” has some origin in the sensible but subconscious response of older women to sexual depravity. Older women have always taken on the role of protecting young women from male sexual predation, and early feminists were the furthest thing from today’s do-me androgynes larping as men.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  128. @Charon

    Lebanon’s not just about its civil war. It’s also about its friendly neighbor who sometimes drops in uninvited and slaughters 1500 people at a time.

    Which friendly neighbor would this be?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Lebanon

    • Replies: @anon
  129. @Cagey Beast

    I can’t speak for his oeuvre.

    But i read his IQ piece–i.e. tirade–and it was pathetic junk.

    A lot of incoherent foot stomping over “fat tails”, which has essentially nothing to do with the relevant questions of either the relevant genetic/biological realities nor the usefulness and/or predictive value of IQ tests in schooling, employment or life.

    A lot of trying to torque around the data, to show it is nothing but screening against retardation (or low IQ). And in at least one case he slapped up some graphs, shaded off portions to make this truncated range point, but the variables were actually backwards from what he needed to show to make his point. (I.e. he wasn’t even truncating the right part of the graph.)

    And another thing was his stupid insistence that people weren’t smart unless they had “skin in the game”. Which is just stupid. Maybe it’s true of him and even more broadly of a certain cultural type. While it’s a critical social/political reality that people perform better with incentives–when they are working for themselves. There are lots of white guys are actually interested in the world and very capable of applying a lot of processing power to stuff where they have no “skin in the game” but are just super-interested. Conversely even smart people can be stupid about things they really a smart enough to avoid.

    It was a pathetic effort, that screamed “butt hurt”. I get the impression he’s got a giant ego, but has never tested very high–or at least as high as he would like-on IQ tests, and so wants to tear them down relative to his cagey “West Asian” style “skin in the game” style street smarts. Or he’s butt hurt over the numbers for Arabs. (I actually agree that the cross national, cross language stuff is much more complicated issue.)

    Or something. But after reading that piece, it’s clear that Taleb is not someone to go to for rational analysis of the world.

    • Agree: Pheasant
    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    , @vhrm
    , @Daniel H
  130. @UK

    I agree and, if I may be forgiven for quoting myself, here is something I wrote to Hail earlier apropos of your observations.

    I think the best way to understand what is going on with the coronavirus is to flip the script. This is not a novel or unusual situation. In fact, Covid-19 is behaving no differently than viruses in general do. The reason this general virus behavior is only becoming apparent now is because Covid-19 is the most extensively studied and documented viral outbreak in living memory, and because most people’s erstwhile thinking about viruses has been blighted by a lot of shallow, unscientific, sensational nonsense (and this includes the so-called scientific community).

    Now, these are the relevant facts about viruses that the Covid-19 epidemic teaches.

    • Viruses readily cross species barriers and are in general quite transmissible both between and within species. The ideas that epidemics are precipitated by saltation events, i.e. sudden jumps that require random mutations (or their sinister counterpart, the non-random mutations of deliberate bioweapons engineering) are misguided. Outbreaks involving a moticeable increase in mortality and thereby garnering a public response are rare precisely because most viruses are already present among us, unremarked and unremarkable.

    • Virus-related morbidity and mortality follows a Pareto distribution, an 80-20 law. Of all those exposed to a virus, only 20% will contract it. Of all those infected with a virus, 80% will be asymptomatic. Of the 20% who develop symptoms, 80% of those will have no more than a mild cold. Truly serious illness will be confined to the remaining 4%, among whom, with appropriate care, many will recover. This accords well with the reported lethality of about 2% for Covid-19. Since 96% of the infected population will experience nothing worse than a cold, and even the infected population is but a small subset of the total population, viruses can spread far and wide before anybody really notices them.

    • Viruses are not in any sense alive, nor do they “straddle the boundary between life and non-life.” Viruses are entirely artifactual. They originate by the same process by which we see them multiplied, viz. they are manufactured by organic cells, for ends which are no doubt as varied and multitudinous as the functions which living activity must subserve. The question must needs be asked, “Why are there viruses at all?” And the answer can only be, “Because cells produce them.”

    • Viruses therefore do not and cannot “mutate,” but the are mutated—i.e. modified—by the cells that multiply them, and this changes their properties.

    • Viruses become factors in disease only when their production becomes excessive, and this is usually the result of some cofactor. Linear predictions of mortality cannot be made in individual cases, as the variables are too numerous and complicated.

    • The acceptance of these facts will allow the discovery of a rich and varied viral economy taking place at the subcellular level which will open up new avenues for supportive care of viral diseases.

    • Replies: @Ben tillman
  131. J.Ross says:

    In 2006 researchers who were not panicking found a way to quadruple ventilator capacity.
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1197/j.aem.2006.05.009
    Conclusions: A single ventilator may be quickly modified to ventilate four simulated adults for a limited time. The volumes delivered in this simulation should be able to sustain four 70-kg individuals. While further study is necessary, this pilot study suggests significant potential for the expanded use of a single ventilator during cases of disaster surge involving multiple casualties with respiratory failure.
    ACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE 2006; 13:1246–1249 ª 2006 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine

  132. @AnotherDad

    True. Taleb has blocked several of the Twitter accounts I’ve used over the last few years. Most recently he blocked me for saying it was entirely understandable that he puts so much time and emotional labour into denying his people are Arabs. I guess some people can’t take a backhanded compliment.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  133. @The Germ Theory of Disease

    A peaceful and rational secession and partition is entirely doable (I can tell you at least a half dozen practical ways to do it). But alas, historically speaking, Americans are neither peaceful nor rational, nor practical, so count on the needless endless bloodbath instead.

    But after the bloodbath, will we be free of SJWs? I know it will be difficult, but on our side, we won’t have affirmative action, and no one will say “as horrific as this tragedy was, if our diversity becomes a casualty, I think that’s worse[.]” I do not know about you, but if the choice is a bloodbath, or the boot-stamping-on-our-face-forever they want to give us, then it is an easy call.

    Now, if we could get all SJWs to demand that medical services must be delivered by the D.I.E. beneficiaries, we might all make progress to a long-term solution.

  134. @UK

    Agree, for the most part, but the post mortem will not be how embarrassing this all is, including the media’s hype, it will be Trump and republicans “abysmal response to it” narrative. When the noose is a hoax, you shift the narrative to the “historical disenfranchisement” stuff.

    It’s value will be that it can be retconned. Republicans are too stupid to use it to their favor, pointing out that it is just “another reason to have stricter immigration laws” (even if that is an overstatement or would not have totally helped).

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
  135. @The Wild Geese Howard

    I’m still trying to figure out how and why the US voluntarily euthanized its entire economy in less than a week.

    Boomers gonna boom.

    The people who stalk our corridors of political and media power have been waiting for their own Pearl Harbor their entire lives, and they’ve used every significant public event for the last 20 years as a soundstage wherewith to get melodramatic. Do you remember those stupid color-coded “terror alerts” after 9/11?

  136. vhrm says:
    @AnotherDad

    +1

    My guess is that he’s pretty high IQ himself. His anti-IQ rant may be offense on behalf of his ethnic group, as you suggest.

    Another thing that can happen with intellectuals (real or imagined) is that belief in IQ would admit “privilege” in the negative SJW sense which then would lessen the value of their efforts.

    Like “pft, of course you got on the team; you’re 6′ 11″ ! ”

    The noblesse oblige of high IQ is unpleasant if you’re aware of it.

  137. Lot says:

    I suggested blacks in cold weather areas would be hardest hit by CV.

    Second big celeb after Tom Hanks to get CV? Black guy in London Idris Elba.

    First US pro sports players? Black guys playing for the Utah Jazz.

  138. Daniel H says:
    @AnotherDad

    But he does keep some very good company, company unlikely to tolerate a bullshitter. He teaches his NYU course with Robert Frey. If anybody knows probability/statistics, and how to used them, it is Frey.

  139. J.Ross says:
    @Dennis Dale

    He’s talking about using censorship to protect people from criticism. Criticism! He’s filth. He’s something which should be processed at a water treatment facility. He should be forbidden from owning or touching a computer for the rest of his life. More brainless bureaucrat than technologically important innovator. Nothing remains of his former genius. He has become Modern Britain, tolerator of rape and censor of speech, twisted and evil.

    [Berners-Lee has three vague foci. First is money, not sure what his point can be there, apparently only women can be poor.]

    Second is online safety: according to a survey [!!!!!!!1!!!11!!111!!!one!] by Berners-Lee’s Web Foundation, more than half of young women have experienced violence online [Let us recall the wisdom of a man who is Mr Berners-Lee’s superior in every way: Tyler the Creator], including sexual harassment, threatening messages and having private images shared without consent [See the violence inherent in the system? If only young women had a way of not propagating pictures they voluntarily took of themselves with their own devices while at home]. The vast majority [of the hysterical women who self-selected by filling out a freaking survey? Experts like Berners-Lee? Grauniad writing not make clear] believe the problem is getting worse.

    The third threat comes from badly designed artificial intelligence systems that repeat and exacerbate discrimination. “Many companies are working hard to tackle this discrimination. But unless they dedicate resources and diversify teams to mitigate bias, they risk expanding discrimination at a speed and scale never seen before,” he writes. [So, recall all those stories about the confirmation of black predisposition to criminality by AI being dismissed as “racist.” Berners-Lee wants our world less safe and our experts less well informed. He’s filth.]

    So he’s a computer guy who once knew his way around a trouble ticket but who now promises to do everything he can to prevent your machine from functioning.
    There is nothing hypocritical or self-damaging with casting into the pits a guy who was once bright but who has now gone senile or become positively dangerous. If Berners-Lee is supporting the Beijingification of the whole internet globally, especially to protect the emotions of the emotionally unstable, then he needs to be completely overwritten with consecutive ones and then zeroes in seven alternations.
    Within the bowels of Wozniak I beg you to consider that the most important thing about the internet is that you can use it to tell me that I am wrong and I cannot stop you. Once I can, it’s not the internet any more, it’s something else.

    • Agree: Charon
    • Replies: @Dennis Dale
  140. @Old Palo Altan

    Today I went to one Walgreens, one Target, one Milam’s, and four CVSes, and I saw not one roll of toilet paper, not one roll of paper towels, and not one package of wet wipes.

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  141. @Anon

    Exponential growth. Numbers may seem tiny one day, and much bigger the next.

    Where is the exponential growth? I have seen linear growth. Where did you see exponential growth?

  142. Polymath says:

    Boy, this issue has really shown who the dangerous idiots are.

    Every one of you on this thread who used the smallness of a *current* number to conclude that a dynamic process currently growing exponentially is no threat might as well be dead to me. I won’t block you, but I won’t take seriously anything you say on any issue that is quantitative to any material degree, henceforth. You know who you are.

    Every one of you whose criticisms of Taleb indicate gross misunderstandings of his work (which is not all of you criticizing him here, a few of you engage with his actual thought rather than some moronic misrepresentation of it) is also hereby on notice that you have lost my respect. You probably don’t know who you are.

    Every one of you who is making the utterly fundamental logical error of confusing “Democrats would lie about a non-crisis to make it sound like one” with “Democrats are making it sound like one therefore they’re lying and it’s not a crisis” is no better than them and is now on my list of garbage generators. You definitely don’t know who you are.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson
  143. @Cagey Beast

    …it was entirely understandable that he puts so much time and emotional labour into denying his people are Arabs.

    Yes. Christians aren’t Arabs. But Somalis are, since 1976:

    • Replies: @Charon
  144. @Anon

    Not sure why USC Shoah Foundation Institute’s Stephen Smith needed his 15 nanoseconds (whoever that is), but he doesn’t have anything to worry about.

    The show was pretty good the first 8 or so episodes, but it totally jumped the shark at the end in such a ridiculous way that it makes Fonzie’s jumping the shark seem like Shakespeare in comparison.

  145. OT – someone mentioned a lot of CEOs stepping down, couldn’t recall source.

    Does seem a lot if true

    -DISNEY
    -MASTERCARD
    -MORGAN STANLEY
    -SALESFORCE
    -BLACKROCK INC.
    -LBRANDS
    -UBER EATS
    -HULU
    -NESTLE’S WATER N. AMERICA
    -MGM
    -IBM
    -LINKEDIN

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  146. J.Ross says:

    Eugene Gu, a man who chose to throw away a medical career in order to score cheap political points, says he is more scared now than ever, because Trump named a flu which came from China as Chinese flu. Meanwhile the only anti-Chinese incidents I can find are from Biden supporters.

  147. anon[148] • Disclaimer says:
    @Johann Ricke

    Which friendly neighbor would this be?

  148. Jack D says:
    @Liza

    I am more concerned about being out of food,

    A human can live three minutes without air, three days without water, three weeks without food and three decades without toilet paper.

    • Thanks: Liza
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Anonymous
  149. Another reason for panic– a President Biden may gift us a wise Negress:

    Biden’s promises to work with Republicans are a reason to worry about his possible presidency; his promise to put a black woman on the Supreme Court are a reason to think maybe he’s wiser about Republican obstruction than he purports to be on the stump.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/biden-sanders-vice-president/

    Biden has been saying he would nominate an African American woman to the Supreme Court since the end of last month. But even that ostensibly progressive pledge highlights how his apprehension of alienating whites is more important to him than inspiring the constituencies that propelled the Obama-Biden ticket to victory. Talking about a Supreme Court nomination is speculative; committing to a woman of color as running mate is something he can do now.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/biden-sanders-vp-of-color/

    (BTW, I only go to The Nation to get the crossword.)

  150. Liza says:
    @epebble

    .Many Americans took advantage of the numerous pages torn from free catalogs such as Sears and Roebuck. The Sears Christmas catalog, four times thicker than the normal catalog, could get a family of three wiped clean from December through Valentine’s Day; or Saint Patrick’s Day if they were frugal.

    Hilarious!

    I am not ancient, but I do come from a poor area where we did not have plumbing on the farm. Even as late as when I was a teenager, us kids looked forward to late summer, when my parents would buy a couple of cases of fruit for canning (peaches, etc.). We were happy about this because each piece of fruit was wrapped in a nice soft piece of tissue! Guess what it was used for. So we had a few weeks away from the newspaper on our bums.

    Sorry. Is that Too Much Information?

    • Replies: @epebble
  151. If Taleb was fishing for midwits he’s done pretty well here.

  152. George says:

    One theory might be Taleb bet huge against the market. His nightmare would then be if there was no panic.

  153. anon[400] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    It’s still the good piece of evidence of the case fatality rate. Everyone got tested. Around 700 tested positive and around 7 died. Around 1%.

    Here is a paper: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html

    Which tries to combine this data with that from China.

    No one is following up on fatalities, but we almost have to assume the remaining seriously ill have lived, for lack of follow up.

    I think given the age of the population, the CFR would be maybe half that with a representative age structure.

    It is several times worse than flu, which is already hell on old people.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  154. Yngvar says:
    @Charon

    As I said, the local health authorities can’t cope if there is an outbreak of Chinese Communist Wuhan Corona virus in the typical cabin villages we have in Norway. So they have to go back to their own district, their own medical region.

    No one are being med-evacuated by chopper anywhere now. It’s grim.

    • Thanks: Charon
  155. @YetAnotherAnon

    It’s no fun being a CEO anymore now that the globalist salad days are over and struggling companies need real leadership in uncertain times. It was so much easire when you could just strip-mine the company, buy back stock with free Fed money, and pocket millions without increasing profits.

  156. @The Wild Geese Howard

    Coulter tweeted those stats at least once. RamZ Paul also thinks that we have over reacted

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  157. David88 says:
    @Anonymous

    But .. he also says “Currently, I am most worried about the U.S. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse.”

    He isn’t recommending business as usual.

  158. @Anon

    First death in Italy : Feb 22
    First death in US : Feb 29

    Total deaths Italy March 6 : 197
    Total deaths Italy March 9 : 463

    Total deaths US March 13 : 50
    Total deaths US March 16 : 69

  159. Dmon says:
    @UK

    Don’t we already have a pretty good controlled experiment? The Diamond Princess, 3700 people, most of them elderly (that’s who goes on cruises), packed together breathing and crapping all over each other with pretty much zero social distancing going on. Everybody tested – 17 % infection rate. Of those 17% infected, 1% death rate. So for a total population under pretty much worst case conditions, you have a death rate of 1/17 = 0.06%. Those are hard numbers – no speculation involved. So, worst case in a country like the US seems to be a couple hundred thousand dead. If we spread out a little and don’t all get served food by the same infected wait staff, we should be able to avoid 14th century Genoa.

    • Agree: UK, Kratoklastes
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @vinny
  160. @Polymath

    a dynamic process currently growing exponentially is no threat might as well be dead to me.

    hereby on notice that you have lost my respect. You probably don’t know who you are

    is no better than them and is now on my list of garbage generators. You definitely don’t know who you are.

    I know who I am. Who are you?

    • LOL: Autochthon
  161. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    We may have to go back to “steezer style”-the paper goes in a can or if there isn’t one, on the floor. Much of the plumbing in Mexico is so bad it can’t handle toilet paper, so that’s why they do it. The shitpaper should be burned, but that’s impossible in urban areas and difficult in the suburbs, leading to a worse health issue.

    I have talked to archaeology students who have dug up the sites of farmhouse outhouses from 100 to 170 years ago in various areas. They’ve said that even after that time the newspapers and catalog pages are often largely readable and the smell of shit-technically, indole, skatole, and hydrogen sulfide-is pervasive. I think I’ve read accounts of privy sites from as long ago as the time of the witch hunts in Massachusetts being dug up and similar patterns noted-apparently if the shit is beneath the topsoil, it more or less stays intact for centuries in many cases. But shit buried at the appropriate depth in topsoil is rapidly consumed by microbes, worms, and the like and is beneficial to the soil like any animal manure.

    The only way the shit gets “recycled” in deep burial is when a tree puts down roots.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  162. UK says:
    @yaph

    So we know they miss a large majority of cases , so it is likely they yet miss more.

  163. Corn says:
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    “A peaceful and rational secession and partition is entirely doable (I can tell you at least a half dozen practical ways to do it). ”

    Please share

  164. @Anonymous

    I have talked to archaeology students who have dug up the sites of farmhouse outhouses from 100 to 170 years ago in various areas. They’ve said that even after that time the newspapers and catalog pages are often largely readable and the smell of shit-technically, indole, skatole, and hydrogen sulfide-is pervasive.

    I am not buying that whatsoever.

  165. anon[400] • Disclaimer says:

    Yea, it’s bad for the economy, but it’s not like a normal business cycle event.

    Think of Europe after WW 2. Now imagine Europe without bombing. It would not have had to rebuild. It would have been more like post war US.

    This is a no fault event. A typical business cycle ends with over capacity and excess inventory. Also inflation and higher interest rates. Which are worked off in a recovery.

    I read someone talking about the permanently foregone GDP. All those meals that weren’t eaten out, all those hotel rooms. It’s not like they are going to disappear. The consumption is foregone, but if it isn’t too long, the capacity will mostly remain.

    Finally, you need animal spirits. I see them coming back sooner rather than later.

    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
  166. @yaph

    That actually corresponds precisely to what he was saying. When only the very worst cases even bother to get testing or treatment, some of those die and the ones who aren’t tested don’t even appear on the radar.

  167. @Houston 1992

    The economic pain we have set ourselves up for is potentially far worse than the virus.

    If this shutdown lasts more than a month there are going to be a lot of angry, desperate people roaming around out there.

  168. @Ron Mexico

    Ron, the teachers are very proud to make use of the 10 or 20 thousand dollars worth of Ed School “education” the taxpayers are on the hook for, so they do this concept thing. I could see it for the first day or two, but then, start freaking DOING fractions, you dipshits!

    Yeah, it’s hard to get away from it. This time off includes some on-line BS that is supposed to take the time of a school day. I’m hoping we can zip through it in 2 hours and then do something constructive.

  169. @danand

    That’s right, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes and airplanes, Lenny Bruce is not afraid …

    Can I have some time alone? (That’s the backing vocals/counterpoint lyric – took me a while to understand it.)

    • Replies: @Ben tillman
  170. Hunsdon says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    Heads they win, tails you lose. Both directions, right?

  171. Mr. Anon says:
    @anon

    It’s still the good piece of evidence of the case fatality rate. Everyone got tested. Around 700 tested positive and around 7 died. Around 1%.

    The demographics for that cruise probably skew old.

    • Replies: @anon
  172. Anonymous[175] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    A human can live three minutes without air, three days without water, three weeks without food and three decades without toilet paper

    I understand that life expectancy in India has risen, to about seven decades.

  173. @Jim Bob Lassiter

    Ive been waiting for Ann Coulter to make that point. Not to downplay Covid, but like smarmy left-leaners always like to interrupt someone to point out that “flying in an airplane is actually much safer than driving a car…” after any plane crash, they seem to take their intellectual problem glasses off when there are all sorts of such “interesting facts” about illegals (or blacks) available all around–in a variety of mathematical ways.

    To date, more people have been killed since Jan. 1st by ___________ than Covid-19.

    a. screwdrivers
    b. blacks under the age of 20
    c. illegals drunk driving
    d. Vermonters armed with handguns, with only a HS eduction
    e. Covid-19

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  174. @Anon

    I never, ever get a good response when I try to be diplomatic. My few attempts at matchmaking have failed miserably as well.

    Still, if you’re soured on seniors because you haven’t got a job, Amazon is hiring!

  175. Mr. Anon says:
    @Liza

    I am more concerned about being out of food, though I don’t buy excessively and don’t hoard.

    Hoarding is one of those irregularly conjugated verbs:

    I am preparing. You are overbuying. He is hoarding.

    • LOL: vhrm, HammerJack
    • Replies: @Liza
    , @Liza
  176. @Charon

    the nCoV is a genuine Black Swan event.

    Perhaps for China.

    We had more than two months notice.

    Governments in Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong swung into action by the last week of January, instituting contact tracing, mandatory quarantines and closing off entry to Chinese nationals by then.

    Despite having the highest number of cases (at that stage, in January) outside China, those societies have largely kept the lid on the problem in the two months since then.

    Schools and restaurants are open in Singapore, for instance, but all three countries have a vast machinery of civil defense, police and military personnel who are expending shoe leather doing the onerous work of contact tracing, so that quarantine notices can be issued.

    • Agree: epebble
  177. Mr. Anon says:
    @Polynikes

    Interesting point in the article. But then again, how much panic is too much? There’s a fine line between scaring everybody into staying home and running society right off the rails.

    Not mingling in crowds is a good idea. Not going to confined spaces with lots of people is probably a good idea. Staying shut in your house for three weeks sounds like a really bad idea. Several Bay Area counties have issued “orders” telling people to stay inside. They are implying that it is mandatory (because they probably know they have no legal authority to actually make it mandatory). Want to make people susceptible to disease? Shut them up inside for a few weeks without sunlight and exercise. Sunshine and fresh air are two of the most healthy things you can get.

    • Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.)
  178. It’s fairly well established now that the virus threat is an absolute, total, utter, and complete nothing-burger:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

    The economic damage caused by the response, however, is very much a something-burger and I daresay a shit sandwich. But, to quote Peter Schiff, the real problem is the great global liquidation of 11 years of financial imprudence. The problem is not the pin that pricked the bubble, the problem is the bubble deflating.

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @Anonymous
  179. Anon[362] • Disclaimer says:
    @Charon

    Urban Norwegians escaping the dread to stay in their cabins in the woods and mountains have been ordered to return home.

    Will you (or anyone) please tell me what the purpose of such an order might be?

    We are also worried about that in rural areas of the US. In our rural county, there is one mountain area that has been severely built up by developers. There are more homes in that small area than the rest of the county combined.

    Thankfully, there are only a small percentage there at any given time. The fear is everyone who owns one of those log mansions they call cabins will come try to hunker down and escape from the cities.

    We simply don’t have the infrastructure or medical personnel to deal with that kind of influx even in the absence of a viral pandemic.

  180. @Charon

    Charon, i think we’re just arguing over what constitutes “a black swan”.

    If didn’t know this was coming this year qualifies then yeah, swan away.

    But if your “provide links” thing is to suggest that this is some kind of shock to me or that me and millions of other people haven’t been expecting something like this–or worse–that’s ridiculous. If that’s the case, you really need a better class of friends to talk with.

    Almost every year the Chinese are launching some strain of flu around the world. The CDC has to guess and often gets it wrong.

    The SARS v.1 thing almost wiggled loose back in 03. Some Chinese brought it from Hong Kong got it going in Toronto and their containment efforts weren’t awesome. If it had been as contagious as this strain, it would have been a huge ass kicker as it was much more deadly.

    H1N1–“swine flu”–apparently started in Mexico and got around the world. Plenty of press on that. To many people the hype exceeded the disease, but it was still a bad strain that killed a lot of people that authorities were unable to contain.

    Heck, i was worried about Ebola just a few years ago–and again our globohomo establishment was pushing the whole minoritarian “you can’t quarantine Africa”, “borders are racist”, “quarantines don’t work” blah, blah, blah … Fortunately it turned out that it’s not all that contagious and you have to do some stupid stuff Africans do for it to spread easily.

    If took the bubonic plague over a decade to march across Asia from China (or central Asia) to Europe. Now some infected dude hops on a plane in lands in Seattle in the morning.

    So no. Only the “this year” bit here is surprise.

    • Replies: @Charon
  181. So Taleb is saying that the Madness of Crowds and tendency to panic is pro-social, because it gets everyone on the same page and doing what needs to be done to save the collective.

  182. @Mr. Anon

    The orders in all the counties involved absolutely state, under Section 10a, ‘Essential Activities’, that exercise is a legitimate reason to be out and about, as long as ‘social distance’ is respected.

    I think the actions in the Bay Area are nonsensical, and will hurt many hourly workers, but no one here will be trapped in their homes. For now.

  183. @Charon

    War beats the hell out of surrendering ones life.

  184. @Anon

    There would be MORE JOBS which the younger generations could compete for IF they weren’t a) shipped offshore; and b) millions of economic aliens allowed to swarm the border.

    • Replies: @Autochthon
  185. vinny says:
    @Dmon

    Those are promising numbers. Although we should remember that it’s more humid on a cruiseship than just about anywhere.

  186. Ed says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    I blame twitter. The pattern seems to be that journalists retweet a gathering in some locale. Scold those pictured and usually within 12-24 hours the mayor or governor of the area locks everything down.

    There’s also a game of brinkmanship among leaders who don’t want to be seen as lacking in their response.

    After OH Rep Governor shut down restaurants (there were only 18 cases at the time) major Dem governors/mayors did the same. Oddly DeBlasio is one major mayor that appeared to be resisting our current zeitgeist but he’s being pummeled on social media.

    Trump initially tried to hold out as recently as a few days ago but he was getting bashed for caring more about the economy. So looks like he buckled. Anyway I think if deaths don’t skyrocket this week (unfortunately they do appear to be accelerating) people will start pushing back on these lockdowns. Especially when they realize whatever help congress gets around to passing won’t help them much. Also there were tweets from white collar folks saying they’ve been laid off. That’ll change the tone of the hysteria.

  187. epebble says:
    @Liza

    What State/region would that be? and which year/decade?

  188. Kylie says:
    @Charon

    “Yeah, people are in favor of war mainly because they don’t have any real experience of war, and/or they don’t think they’ll be personally affected.”

    And because they haven’t bothered to consider what effects the aftermath of war will have on society.

  189. @Old Palo Altan

    This past weekend I talked to my parents, who live in the ancestral village in Sioux County, Iowa, where the good Yankee-Dutch burghers must surely be exhibiting a high degree of sensible, stoic self-control. Nope; not a toilet roll to be found.

  190. Lurker says:
    @Matra

    Taleb referred to the UK policy as “speculative lunacy”.

    Wow, wait til he finds out about UK immigration policy!

    • LOL: Charon, Ben tillman
  191. @Intelligent Dasein

    0.2 cubed = 0.8 percent, not 4%. But interesting stuff.

  192. Anon[316] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Very interesting article. 83% of those on the ship didn’t get the virus, and of those who did, half showed no symptoms at all. Yes, that sounds very over-inflated. Mortality rate was 1.2%.

  193. Anonymous[354] • Disclaimer says:

    Are cons really reacting to this disease or to the fear that Dems and Media will turn it into a Katrina?

    Sobriety and caution are called for but the panic and draconian measures seem totally out of whack.

  194. Charon says:
    @AnotherDad

    Yes, there are always epidemics and even pandemics. Especially exacerbated by overpopulation and third-world living conditions in places like China, India, and Africa.

    But this one is turning out to be unusual and its coincidence with the end of the business cycle (among other factors) is causing tremendous economic dislocations which have only just begun.

    By the time it’s over and done with, I’ll bet even you will say it was a Black Swan.

  195. Charon says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Well, they certainly act like Arabs. Have you ever tried sailing a boat past them?

    Also: wow, Theodora has her own domain now!

    Also: wait a minute. Comoros??

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  196. @Futurethirdworlder

    Am I the only one who thinks this isn’t a big deal but is encouraging the hysteria anyway for the potential damage it could do to the global establishment?

    I, for one, am uncertain that getting this same globalist establishment drunk on dictatorial emergency powers is the best of all possible worlds. Unless ‘future third worlder’ is an aspiration rather than a lament?

    • Replies: @Futurethirdworlder
  197. anon[400] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Yes. Passengers on the Diamond Princess skewed old. My best guess is a CFR of around .5, and that Covid-19 is 5x more severe than seasonal flu.

    There doesn’t seem to be a lot of headroom in capacity of our medical system. Or any countries system that includes critical care with breathing assistance/ventilation.

    We have capacity, but it is mostly in use. It seems like a fairly small outbreak (in terms of pct of population) will generate enough seriously ill patients to jam up the hospital systems.

    But this is assuming that not more than 1 or 2 of the still seriously ill passengers end up dying.

  198. @miss marple

    Also many of those 70-somethings still hold important jobs because they aren’t easily replaced.

    Comedy gold.

  199. @Stan Adams

    A bunch of these people will probably try flushing the paper towels and the wet wipes and wind up with a whole new crisis on their hands.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  200. @Kangaroo Dundee

    Miss Marple is just another one of the entitled, willfully ignorant geezers who mumbles “In my day…young people are lazy…I worked my way through school…I bought my first house for cash….” It’s always 1970 (or 1960, etc.) for her. She’s no appreciation for the mathematical impossibility since at least 1990 of working one’s way through school or (absent obscene wealth) purchasing a house for cash at prevailing costs, all caused by her cohort’s deliberate overpopulation of the F.U.S.A.

    May Coronachan decimate her ill-gotten savings!

    • Replies: @miss marple
  201. @El Dato

    I like it. Here’s another psycho-drama:

    Substitute “the F.U.S.A.” for “Dethklok” and substitute “Jew” for “record executive” and you are there, too….

  202. @kaganovitch

    It’s a guarantee if things keep rolling along as they have been for the last 70 years. The only thing that can prevent it is a complete meltdown.

  203. @Achmed E. Newman

    That doesn’t make sense – small chance or probably inevitable (meaning large chance)?

    There is no paradox or inconsistency. You just need to think of the conditionality underlying eacj probability.

    Pr(you die tomorrow) is relatively small;

    Pr(you die sometime after now) has been very close to 1 for all living things for the entire history of life (to date). It’s inevitable.

    (It’s not exactly 1, because there is a very small probability that you died as you read the word ‘now’).

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  204. @Achmed E. Newman

    Actually, it’s “It’s time I had some time alone.”

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  205. Liza says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Hoarding is one of those irregularly conjugated verbs:

    I am preparing. You are overbuying. He is hoarding.

    How so? Is it an issue of conjugation or transitive VS intransitive? Should I have said, “I don’t hoard food”? You know – as in “I don’t kick”, which doesn’t make sense; but “I don’t kick people or animals” is understandable.

    Serious question. I love grammar discussions. Hope I’m not being a korinthenkacker.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    , @Ben tillman
  206. @Ben tillman

    Hmmm, I can’t tell for sure, and I doubt Michael Stipe knew what the heck he was singing anyway.

    Try to catch these lyrics, Ben:

    The album was called Murmer. Yeah, no shit. Great sound though!

    • Replies: @Ben tillman
  207. @OscarWildeLoveChild

    (b) and (c) and sometimes (a) – illegal mexicans who’ve drunken too many screwdrivers, having sworn off Corona based on stupidity, and crashed their cars into American families of 5.

  208. @Lars Porsena

    Lars, nothing beats tampons for clogging up the sewer pipe the quickest.

    Next there’ll be a run on plumber’s snakes. No more ass-crack jokes, bitchez, if you want your toilet to flush, and I only take paper, uhh, no not that toilet paper either .. Gold, bitchez!

    • Replies: @anon
  209. @anon

    This is my take if we get this resolved in 3 weeks tops the forgone consumption will be largely confined to hospitality and travel. Bail those industries out-making sure that small businesses see some of that money and things can get moving again. Our elite sucks but unfortunately they are the elite we have-get their panic under control and we can roar back. Trump needs to be on the phone with the MLB and NBA frequently ready to give them the all clear. Getting sports back up will be important because Americans are sports obsessed (I say not in judgement I like them too).

  210. Jack D says:
    @miss marple

    Also many of those 70-somethings still hold important jobs because they aren’t easily replaced.

    Absolutely right – who could the Democrats have nominated instead of Joe Biden? Where are you going to find someone with his wisdom and experience, his discretion and judgment, his way with words, his strength and stamina?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  211. @Charon

    Also: wait a minute. Comoros??

    Shh! It’s their base for retaking Zanzibar!

    • LOL: HammerJack
  212. @OscarWildeLoveChild

    Agree, for the most part, but the post mortem will not be how embarrassing this all is, including the media’s hype, it will be Trump and republicans “abysmal response to it” narrative. When the noose is a hoax, you shift the narrative to the “historical disenfranchisement” stuff.

    It’s value will be that it can be retconned. Republicans are too stupid to use it to their favor, pointing out that it is just “another reason to have stricter immigration laws” (even if that is an overstatement or would not have totally helped).

    This is flat out a “globalist plague”, caused by globalization and our globalist elites contempt for nation–for borders and separation and protection.

    I more or less agree with your take. But disagree with the last bit.

    Beyond just “globalization”, it isn’t an over-statement to specifically blame immigration as well. The fast spreading here was mostly driven by overseas Chinese, visiting relatives in China for the Chinese New Year then returning to other nations with the virus.

    Businessmen and tourists are much less likely to have prolonged intimate contact in a foreign land than immigrants visiting home. And are easier to quash and manage when there is a crisis no muss, no fuss. (Video conferencing and trip cancellation.) And “immigrant communities” make the politics of the response more difficult.

    If we had not had the last 50 years of insanity in Western nations, this crisis would have been slower and the response better and firmer.

    Granted stopping immigration tomorrow does not immediately mitigate this problem. But in a couple generations of zero immigration the whole “visit relatives” contacts would be quashed–a non-problem.

    Ending immigration is way undervalued. It’s a huge positive in almost ever single area of life. Some of the benefits–ex. employment–will start to be realized almost immediately and will ramp up relatively quickly. Others–housing affordability, savings on taxes–will take a bit longer. Others–less new infrastructure required, less congestion, lower risk of pandemic–ramp up generationally, but are still huge benefits.

    • Agree: Ben tillman
  213. @Jack D

    Where are you going to find someone with his wisdom and experience, his discretion and judgment, his way with words, his strength and stamina?

    And hands! His are bigger and busier than Trump’s.

  214. @Reg Cæsar

    I went to AMC’s website this morning to by a ticket to see Emma today, and all their theaters are closed until further notice. I was looking forward to having the theater to myself. Perhaps they are making a virtue out of necessity.

  215. Anonymous[134] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    It wasn’t that suicidal. Seabirds will lead you to land. Catch fish and turtles for food and collect rainwater to drink. Sea turtle urine is also very dilute and drinkable by humans. Barring a major storm you could survive out there indefinitely.

  216. vhrm says:
    @Liza

    heh heh. It’s not grammar. It’s not even social commentary in grammar’s clothing. It’s a quip wearing a “grammar” t-shirt.

    • LOL: Liza
  217. anon[368] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Lars, nothing beats tampons for clogging up the sewer pipe the quickest.

    “Flushable” wet wipes are a close second, according to guys I know who work for plumbers.
    When I went shopping on Saturday the shelves for wet wipes and baby wipes were bare.
    Predicting a lot of high priced drain cleaning for the next month.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
  218. Nothing this idiot writes or says–including most especially this that you have posted–makes a lick of sense. He’s never made any sense at all. Ever.

    And then he completely jumped the shark putting down IQ?

    I don’t care if he was Lebanese Christian or Siamese Twin.

    He is a stupid retarded lying poser, who has nothing of any import to say about anything.

    If he really did make money as an options trader?

    Then why don’t you just shut the fuck up, retire to your mansion, and be happy.

    Why do you insult us with your utter cacophonous sludge? Live in your castle, you nonsensical dilettante.

    And leave us alone. Stay out of the dialog. You have nothing and I mean NOTHING to add. You only confuse and detract from all human thinking.

  219. @Kratoklastes

    No, I’m still here. Thanks for your concern.

  220. @Anon

    If true that is significant for hospital bed planning. Some have laster 3 weeks. I suspect the UK pushed the lock down button this week of that assumption.

  221. Bee headline: “Biden: not only will I appoint a woman running mate, but I will stand behind her at all times.”

  222. @Liza

    Viruses/germs/bacteria etc. will not kill everyone. Only the weakest.

    I dunno … they stopped the Martians dead in their tracks, and they were pretty bad-ass.

  223. @Liza

    Wigs. Humor. Joke.

    • Replies: @Ben tillman
  224. @Achmed E. Newman

    Murmur is probably my favorite REM album. Listen to teotwawki again. I assure you the lyric is as I say.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  225. @Ben tillman

    I think you’re right, Ben.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  226. @anon

    “Flushable” wet wipes are death to septic tanks because they do not decompose. It’s a problem in the lake country north of Toronto where the nannies flush them like they’re in the big city.

  227. @The Wild Geese Howard

    Someone like Ron Paul would say that, and does in one of his Liberty Report videos, though I think the good doctor is going out on a limb.

    Even if the pandemic is being exploited in that way, it’s still real. Do they really feel a need to disguise their extravagance at this point?

  228. @Autochthon

    The pile on! I try to encourage empathy for the elderly and all I get is criticism.

    Anyway, you couldn’t be more wrong about me. It’s still 1995 for me and always will be.

    BTW, I got ripped off by some senior citizens today at a little roadside stand. As I contemplated a container of wilting zucchini, I negotiated the damage down from $25 to $10. I bought a little something to keep up their spirits and got the hell out of there. As soon as I got home, I threw away their overpriced, unsanitary produce. Sheesh, I still feel unclean.

  229. Anonymous[971] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    But, to quote Peter Schiff, the real problem is the great global liquidation of 11 years of financial imprudence.

    When has Peter Schiff spoken about this?

  230. Pheasant says:
    @Anon

    Muslim underclass outbresding and siezing political power: quite predictable.

    Displaced plo plestinians did not help the situation.

  231. Pheasant says:
    @Liza

    Cytokine storms kills the particularly healthy.

  232. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @J.Ross

    What can I say? Agreed. I’m just trying to figure out what motivates these people. I still think most deluded lefties of the right hand of the bell curve are inwardly appalled by Globo Homo too.
    As “the rules” are all going to be tested now, might as well give them a chance to drop the feminist trappings and come out.

  233. Dennis Dale says: • Website

    Ironically, the author of “The Black Swan” is one of the last people I’m taking seriously here. He was drawing down his credibility capital long before his embarrassing encounter with the IQ question. His “Fat Tony” nonsense (about how you should trust the guy who looks nothing like what he is) and constant flexing (“I lift!”) means I don’t care how smart he is, he’s driven by resentment and unrestrained ego.
    And “antifragility” is not a real thing.

  234. Liza says:
    @Mr. Anon

    @Mr. Anon.

    God almighty, my parents never raised any stupid kids, but one of them sure is slow.

    Sorry for my stupid response. Did not see the forest for the trees, or is it the other way around…

  235. Anon87 says:

    I am worried about a “cry wolf” situation here. The death numbers are still fairly minor (ignoring the obese, smoking, elderly, kiss greeting Northern Italy), so shutting the country down seems like a massive overreaction. If those cruise ships filled with the elderly were showing death rates of 50%+, holy crap shut it all down! But they haven’t. Not even close. We aren’t going to see millions of dead bodies in the US over this.

    I am just afraid that we had one shot at this, and if the death toll ends up a rounding error or dwarfed by the usual car, flu, gang shootings, etc. we wasted the extreme measures for when we really DO need to shut things down.

    The pain of massive unemployment and ruined retirements (which is now absolutely real), with no real fear-inducing death toll to show for it is just going to make people tune out the next time. We have a barely functioning country as it is. See St. Patrick’s Day and Spring Break videos during a “crisis” for proof of our lack of seriousness already. The company I work for still thinks they can send people to work even though Cuomo moved to a 100% non-essential stay at home order.

    Japan didn’t even had to change that much and got thier death rate under control and didn’t go completley overboard. I am not even seeing hand sanitizer at grocery store entrances yet. We are “serious”, but not really serious about this, so I have no faith in the next go-around.

    And I also have zero faith in the potential silver lining of massive reshoring of jobs. We learn nothing in this country.

    The slide into being a 3rd World just got a little steeper.

Current Commenter
says:

Leave a Reply - Comments are moderated by iSteve, at whim.


 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
Submitted comments become the property of The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Subscribe to This Comment Thread via RSS Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS