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A lot of people love making predictions about the future. This is your chance to put down your election predictions in writing in the Comments … and open yourself up to being razzed about it endlessly by other commenters.

Personally, I don’t like trying to predict the future because I don’t like being wrong, and it’s hard not to be wrong about the future. It’s hard enough being right about the past.

Say you notice that in the recent past, A tends to lead to X. And at the moment, A is happening again, so that means X will happen, right? Well, not necessarily. Even if you are absolutely right about A tending to cause X, A isn’t the only thing happening right now. B is happening, C is happening, etc. etc.

Do you have a full picture of everything that is happening right now?

I don’t.

 
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  1. Frank G says:

    Trump wins AZ, FL, NC, OH, IA, PA and NH for a 283 EV victory. Biden has a heart attack between Election Day and Inauguration Day.

    • LOL: AndrewR, Guest007
    • Replies: @AndrewR
    , @JimB
  2. Dave Pinsen says: • Website

    My prediction is Trump wins with about 312 electoral votes. I elaborate here, but in a nutshell, I expect black and Hispanic turnout to be about 2 points lower due to voting by mail and I expect Trump’s share of their respective votes to rise to about 12% and >35% respectively.

    • Agree: Magic Dirt Resident
    • Replies: @Hannah Katz
    , @Guest007
  3. Biden may have a 6 point advantage in the early vote in Florida.

    Hopefully, Trump can get a massive election-day turnout. Which is certainly not implausible, as Republicans have not stressed voting by mail nearly as vigorously as Democrats.

    Here’s what the RCP average of all the polls shows in Florida.

    View post on imgur.com

    Registered Democrats have returned ~114K more ballots than registered Republicans.

  4. The good news is moderates will lose.

    Anti-Whites will get more zealous. They will double and triple down in the future.

    White populism will be more open, more strident.

    It was the moderates who facilitated anti-White policies. As long as White people get on their own side and dump the race-traitors, we have a bright future.

    • Agree: Johnny Smoggins, Kronos
    • Thanks: James Speaks
    • LOL: Polistra
  5. Kronos says:

    Trump Landslide BABY!!!

    Both the Bernie Bros and Blacks have every right to fear a Biden/Harris Presidency. The Neoliberals will purge every non-woke socialist if Biden gets elected. They’re still around today because Clinton lost in 2016. The Neoliberals have to pretend to be nice and consider their demands. The Blacks fear Harris will become a Gulag enforcer and retaliate against all those who rioted and just wanted a free TV. (Black riots in Democratic cities are no longer my concern, I don’t live there anymore. It’s GREAT tv!) Also, have you ever seen anyone REALLY excited about Biden? Most Boomer liberals support him because they HATE Trump. Generally negative instigation doesn’t work nearly as well as positive natural support. Both Trump and Sanders have bases that LOVE them. Just because some old crusty feminist boomer liberal thinks Trump reminds her of that bossy second husband from 1976 isn’t going to cut it.

  6. Boethiuss says:

    Trump is horrible clown show. He’s going to lose because he deserves to. Those of you who have been propping him up, what were you thinking?

    Biden by 6-8%, maybe draw-into-an-inside-straight chance of winning, maybe not even that much.

    Senate is probably about 50-50, give or take 1 either way. Which, btw, is a good result for the GOP all things considered. If Biden margin of victory goes into double digits, the downside risk for the GOP in the Senate is really big.

  7. Anonymous[422] • Disclaimer says:

    The creative initiative belongs to Trump and his supporters. I take his victory for granted. Obama crawling out of his hole at the last minute to campaign with Biden says they know the jig is up. Now Dems are just trying to mitigate national humiliation, and the inevitable dissolution of their shitty party as they know it. What I’m hoping for is turning California red this election, for old times sake, and to support the coming national agenda of change.

    Creativity, and always going the extra mile, not because someone told you to, but because you MUST, always wins. Trump and his supporters are doing it every day.

    It’s what winners do, not losers:

    • Thanks: Peripatetic Commenter
  8. Mr. Blank says:

    Honestly, I don’t know. I wouldn’t be comfortable putting money on either outcome.

    My gut tells me Trump’s gonna win, just because the enthusiasm I see for him everywhere is incredible. I know Democrats who’ve never voted GOP who are voting Trump this year. (I’m sure Steve would not be shocked to learn that they are all blue or pink collar white people with normal families.)

    Granted, I live in a conservative region which Trump will easily win, but still. I’ve never seen this kind of enthusiasm for any other Republican during my lifetime. (Maybe it was there for Reagan in ’84, but I was too young to notice.) The only other presidential candidate I’ve ever seen generate this much enthusiasm was Obama — even in my conservative region, the enthusiasm for Obama was strong and palpable.

    My head, on the other hand, tells me Biden’s gonna crush Trump. I know all the things people say about the polls being biased, blah blah blah, but looking at things dispassionately, it just seems like Trump has a very, very steep mountain to climb. Sure, he did it once, but that was just because he caught the Democrats napping. They’re very much awake this time. They’re going to have their guard up.

    I do agree with the pollster the other day (Frank Luntz? I can’t remember…) who said that if Trump wins this one, it’s going to do serious damage to the polling industry. I DO think that the polling industry is in trouble regardless, but a second Trump win would probably be the huge wake-up call the profession needs.

    • Agree: jim jones
  9. Anonymous[266] • Disclaimer says:

    Each side seems extremely confident that it’s going to win. Dems are touting the main polls as portending a Biden victory, while the Republicans are either sure that the polls are mistaken in various ways or are pointing to other polls indicating Trump strength.

    It seems due to the fact that each side is now firmly ensconced in its own media bubble, so there’s less consensus now. Whichever the outcome, the other side will feel cheated and that the election was illegitimate.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  10. Anonymous[424] • Disclaimer says:

    Prediction: Trump will win the electoral college by as much or more electoral votes as he did in 2016.

    However, due in some small part to blue state fraud, he will lose the so-called popular vote by even more than 2016.

    Republicans are bound to lose a senator or two, leaving the Senate at 50/50.

    The left will riot and demand to abolish the “white supremacist” electoral college. They will not be able to muster anywhere near the support needed to amend the constitution so that will again fail. I expect seasonal riots until 2024. They will use the damage and destruction as a weapon against GOP insiders who will be promised an end to the destruction if they nominate a weak candidate. They will take the bait and astroturf a Nikki Haley nomination, and she will lose the general in 2024.

    • Replies: @HammerJack
  11. @JohnnyWalker123

    Republicans fell behind in Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix), but seem to have caught up in returned ballots.

    According to the polling average, Trump may be ahead slightly in Arizona.

    View post on imgur.com

    The Republicans are beginning to challenge individual ballots.

    Read here.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-shift-from-challenging-rules-to-preparing-to-challenge-individual-ballots/ar-BB1ayB2Z?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=edgsp

    In Nevada, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit this week seeking images of the signature of every registered voter in Democratic-leaning Clark County — a potential first step toward challenging individual votes on grounds that the signed ballots don’t match the signatures on file.

    In Texas, Republican officeholders and candidates sued this week to have more than 100,000 votes invalidated in the Houston area because they were cast at drive-through voting centers the GOP has asked a judge to declare illegal.

    And in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, election officials will set aside any mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day — even if they were mailed before the polls closed — to facilitate potential court challenges.

    That means Republicans stand to gain a significant advantage if they can successfully challenge absentee votes already cast. Trump has telegraphed for months that if the election is close and he is running ahead of former vice president Joe Biden on election night, he will urge states to stop counting absentee ballots, even if they have been correctly cast.

    Wow.

    “Trump has telegraphed for months that if the election is close and he is running ahead of former vice president Joe Biden on election night, he will urge states to stop counting absentee ballots, even if they have been correctly cast.”

    The campaign has 8,500 lawyers prepared to help, as well as local lawyers lined up around the country, he said, adding: “We are prepared to sue if we need to.”

    8,500 lawyers.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
  12. My prediction is that iSteve content generators will apply for a piece of that sweet charitable contributions deal he’s got going. We have bills to pay too!

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/sailer-violent-victimizations/#comment-4249258

    Large or small, we find each donation to be a personal message of encouragement to keep doing what we’re doing. Pay with Bitcoin, Zelle,Google Wallet or just hit that LOL button. It’s all the same to us, really.

    • LOL: Polistra
  13. anon[316] • Disclaimer says:

    I predict that if Trump wins we will wander aimlessly through the swamp for another four years with Kushner and Ivanka leading us in circles.
    If Biden wins we will return to Obama era wars and trade deals, with the nastiest lesbians in America put in charge of our schools, neighborhoods, and personal lives.
    I pray for the swamp.

  14. Boethiuss says:
    @Kronos

    Trump Landslide BABY!!!

    Yeah this is bullshit. But even if it were true, I really wonder why we’re supposed to think it was a good thing. We know what Trump’s priorities are by now. Clearly they are not the reasons why the commentariat here was so excited about him in the 2016 primaries.

    • Disagree: Kronos, Redman
    • Replies: @Kronos
  15. Warner says:

    Trump LANDSLIDE!!

    He wins all 2016 states plus MN, NV, And NH.

    Polls are all lying. And those few that aren’t can’t capture the new voter, the unlikely voter who does vote, and are also missing the black vote which will go 20-25% for Trump.

    Media must be DEALT WITH in 2nd term. I believe in 1A but they’re destroying our country and something must be done, at minimum Section 230.

  16. Anon[813] • Disclaimer says:

    The more I read about polling, the more confused I get. From what I understand, the industry used to rely on normal people to pick up their old landline phones and talk to pollsters. Now, apparently, the response rate is very low and very non-representative. So pollsters apparently “correct” for their non-representative samples by overweighting some demographics and underweighting others. But isn’t this entirely circular reasoning? The whole point of polling is to determine how many of each group will show up to vote, and an initial assumption about the makeup of the electorate will shape the poll’s outcome.

    I’ve been listening to a lot of FiveThirtyEight podcasts recently, and they’ve done nothing to answer my questions. For “elections gurus” their analysis is surprisingly non-technical and superficial. Not to mention arrogant and smug. The more I listen to them, the more I suspect that their predictions might be substantially off. Also, they all have “NPR voice”. Extremely grating.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Justvisiting
  17. @JohnnyWalker123

    All the polling statisticians are predicting an overwhelming chance that Trump loses.

    Nevada might be tough. Trump lost there in 2016.

    Interesting youth straw poll out of Iowa.

    U.S. cities are preparing for election day unrest.

    • Agree: vhrm
  18. Dave Pinsen says: • Website
    @JohnnyWalker123

    If they’re confident Biden is going to win, why are they boarding up their windows? Does anyone think Trump supporters are going to riot in DC if Trump loses?

  19. 22pp22 says:

    Biden – the thought makes me puke. The pollsters were wrong last time, but I cannot believe that have not learned their lesson during the past four years and improved their methodologies.

  20. Wilkey says:

    Trump loses, but Republicans hold the Senate and retake the House. Record levels of ticket splitting by voters who are tired of Trump, but scared shitless of Democrats.

  21. I have to say it seems the Trump enthusiasts are projecting more based on hope than on any real data. This election may likely be more like 2012 than 2016, when Romney’s incompetent advisors fleeced his campaign for big bucks while pretending victory was within his grasp.

    On the other hand, it won’t be because Biden, his team, or the pollsters are especially competent, trustworthy, or worthy of any honor or respect. Wishful thinking on the left includes a realistic use of the iron fist inside the velvet glove. All the headlines about Trump fascism are good projections of what the BLM and DIE crowds have planned for the test of us.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
  22. JimDandy says:
    @22pp22

    I don’t think it’s a matter of learning a lesson. I think they are trying to create reality, diminish hope for Trump supporters, etc. That doesn’t mean Trump is going to win.

    I don’t think Nate Silver kept getting it so incredibly “wrong” again and again and again in ’16. I think he was trying to influence.

  23. Mr. Anon says:

    70/30 that Biden wins. I hope I am wrong. Feel free to flame me if I am.

    If Biden wins, he’s out inside of a year. He’ll be the Democrat’s sin-eater. He’s irish, so he fits the part.

    50/50 that the Republicans hold the Senate.

    No chance the Democrats lose the House.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
  24. Anonymous[183] • Disclaimer says:

    Personally, I don’t like trying to predict the future because I don’t like being wrong, and it’s hard not to be wrong about the future. It’s hard enough being right about the past.

    What are some examples of its being difficult to be right about the past? (Steve didn’t explain or give any.)

    • Replies: @V. Hickel
    , @Anon
  25. @Dave Pinsen

    Didn’t they riot a little when Obama won?

  26. Lot says:
    @Dave Pinsen

    “If they’re confident Biden is going to win, why are they boarding up their windows? ”

    Riots are not about the stated pretexts, but solving the collective action problem of getting a lot of black criminals all together at once in an area worth looting, hopefully with a vanguard of antifa who burn with hatred for their own race, by whose standards they are physically ugly, weak, and all around losers, but who nonetheless shine with competence at the basic physical mechanics of riot vanguardism, such as removing plywood from store windows and other tasks the typical black looter finds too difficult.

    “This is your chance to put down your election predictions in writing in the Comments … and open yourself up to being razzed about it endlessly.”

    Biden wins big, EV is 320-218.

    Polls are frequently off, but not by 10 points.

    Dave’s citation to Trafalgar Group on one hand, and all the dozens of other polls on the other like they should be weighted equally, displays confirmation bias.

    I also disagree with him suggesting in his ZH article a purchase of EV range shares on Predictit. The various “Yes” shares in that market add up to 130. The correct approach (the Lot approach) to this market is to short every contract and make 30 before spreads and fees and taxes, not try to fight the efficient market hypothosis by going long on any of them. (And the tax/fee/spread issue applies to going long too).

  27. AnonAnon says:

    Trump will win decisively – it would be wonderful if he flipped Minnesota- and we’ll know the winner Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Nobody wants a corrupt senile old man in charge, particularly one that is selling a “dark winter” with bullshit national mask mandates and continued lockdowns. People want their kids in school and life back to normal. Dems really shot themselves in the foot with their coronavirus scare tactics – college kids are home so not being pushed to the polls, democrat voters are too dim to fill out mail in ballots properly and they’ve been scared off from voting in person, and everyone is beyond over the riots. Biden has run an even lazier campaign than Hilary and Trump is once again doing three and four rallies a day in the final days of his campaign. Republicans will keep the Senate but lose a couple of seats and Dems will keep the House but lose seats. Pelosi will lose her Speakership. It looks like there will be riots -cities are boarding up and Trump moved his election night festivities from a hotel to the White House. The Red Wave is coming and I cannot wait to see the dejected faces of the media. An oldie but goodie I will keep on replay throughout the weekend:

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    , @Mikael_
  28. Kronos says:
    @Boethiuss

    Trump was able to break through and seize the Presidency. That foothold is essential for training new blood with real experience and knowledge for future Presidents in the future. Young people in the Trump administration are potential Pat Buchanans (and dare I say Roger Stones.)

    I perfectly understand that Trump didn’t/doesn’t have full control of the Republican Party with numerous cuckservatives and vipers ready to backstab at a moment’s notice. (I’ve donated money to the Trump campaign and get pleas for donating money to George Will organizations in return WTF? But it’ll take time to weed them out.)

    Trump avoided overextending his political clout and avoid impeachment. This is a time to entrench and build up, not spread out and advance. The man is still in the game. Things will only get more intense as the 2030s get closer. When more Boomer Neocons and Neoliberals overdose on viagra and heart pressure medication. I’m young and don’t expect to be outlived by Nancy or Mitch.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
    , @Cato
  29. Polistra says:

    Trump Landslide BABY!!!

    Trump LANDSLIDE!!

    Polls are all lying.

    Republicans hold the Senate and retake the House.

    You people are delusional. But I hope you’re right anyway.

    • Replies: @Kronos
    , @Warner
  30. I can’t predict. It’s too hard. I can’t understand why anyone would vote for Biden, so I can imagine a Trump victory easily. Plus, we have the memory of that emotional moment of surprise from the last election.

    However, my co-workers are deep, deep in Biden camp. They started in with the Hunter-Biden-scandal-is-Russian-disinformation crap the other day, and I finally broke. After 3 years of listening to their Russiagate shit without saying anything, I finally told them that their Russian hysteria was all bullshit and that they were believing lies without any basis in evidence. They had nothing to say to me, but now they are giving me wry smiles. There is nothing one can say to people who believe in CNN and the righteousness of the Party.

    So, who will win?

    It’s a crazy world out there.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    , @Moral Stone
  31. Anonymous[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    All polls are push polls. The polling “experts” are part of massive election manipulation and the industry should be outlawed. Voluntary online surveys should replace polls, Nate Silver and Frank Luntz can go get real jobs.

  32. @22pp22

    You’re assuming the pollsters are trying to be right, rather than to prop up the narrative. The media is dishonest about everything else, why would they be honest about the polls? These are people who don’t believe in objective truth anyway.

  33. Polistra says:

    All that plywood and OSB gets purchased new and then thrown in the landfill after each hurricane or riot or election. Seems a bit wasteful.

  34. @Boethiuss

    I was forced to sit near a TV today while eating my pudding. CNN was on. When Trump came on, I was just about laughing out loud about his mask remark. He is so enthusiastic and right. Then that guy (Anderson Cooper – does he have white hair now? That’s the guy. I think) came back on, bitching about the Kung Flu and that Trump is not taking it seriously enough. Between that and the President’s way, I understand why there are some really gung-ho Trump supporters.

    Were I to know nothing of politics and just have seen that 5 minutes of TV while eating my jello brand pudding, I’d be heading to the polls in the morning for an early Trump vote.

    That’s no prediction… I’m just sayin’ …

    • Replies: @p4nc4k3s Pl34s3
  35. Pollster claims that Pennsylvania could go either way.

    A strategy for winning in Pennsylvania.

    Michigan looks interesting.

    I should mention that according to most of the official polls (Trafalgar is a notable exception), Trump is down significantly in both Pennsylvania and Michigan.

  36. @Anonymous

    Ice Cube.
    Charlamagne tha God
    50 Cent
    Lil Wayne

    Even Kanye, who is running himself! How often does one contestant endorse his opponent?

    I rest my case.

    Wait a minute. Most or all of these fine gentlemen have walked back their endorsements once the wind blew in their faces.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Ron Mexico
  37. Lot says:
    @Dave Pinsen

    “If they’re confident Biden is going to win, why are they boarding up their windows? ”

    Riots are not about the stated pretexts, but solving the collective action problem of getting a lot of black criminals all together at once in an area worth looting, hopefully with a vanguard of antifa who burn with hatred for their own race, by whose standards they are physically ugly, weak, and all around losers, but who nonetheless shine with competence at the basic physical mechanics of riot vanguardism, such as removing plywood from store windows and other tasks the typical black looter finds too difficult.

    “This is your chance to put down your election predictions in writing in the Comments … and open yourself up to being razzed about it endlessly.”

    Biden wins big, EV is 320-218.

    Polls are frequently off, but not by 10 points.

    Dave’s citation to Trafalgar Group on one hand, and all the dozens of other polls on the other like they should be weighted equally, displays confirmation bias.

    I also disagree with him suggesting in his ZH article a purchase of EV range shares on Predictit. The various “Yes” shares in that market add up to 130. The correct approach (the Lot approach) to this market is to short every contract and make 30 before spreads and fees and taxes, not try to fight the efficient market hypothosis by going long on any of them. (And the tax/fee/spread issue applies to going long too).

    • Disagree: James Braxton
  38. Boethiuss says:
    @Kronos

    Trump was able to break through and seize the Presidency. That foothold is essential for training new blood with real experience and knowledge for future Presidents in the future. Young people in the Trump administration are potential Pat Buchanans (and dare I say Roger Stones.)

    First of all, this isn’t working in terms of new blood. Who is the new blood Trump is bringing in that could help us in 5-10 years time? Stephen Miller, maybe. One guy.

    But even if that were the case, that only goes as far as 2016 anyway. If it was the right choice to support Trump in 2016, what’s the logic in supporting him now?

    He’s not going to do anything for us that hasn’t already been done. He’s the anti-Midas of our politics. Whatever he touches turns to shit. Among other things, there are a lot of Americans who would otherwise be inclined to be with us, who will support more immigration into America for the sake of being on the opposite side of Donald Trump. We’ve seen this already for 3 and half years. Why do we need to see any more?

  39. Flip says:

    I think the Democrats steal the election and that Biden is quickly turned out due to senility and corruption. I am not looking forward to President Harris.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
    • Replies: @TTSSYF
  40. Voltarde says:

    The Uniparty will win. Demographics is destiny. COVID-19 will be interpreted by low-info voters as the loss of the mandate of heaven. Ironically, COVID-19 actually showed that the Uniparty “elite” is utterly incompetent, but you are not allowed to notice that in the overall din of the media’s Trump-reviling agit-prop.

    The 2016 presidential election result was a “black swan” event. Trump’s victory stripped the Creep State, Big Tech, the media, and their accomplices in academia totally naked. For that I’ll be forever grateful to every American who voted for Trump in 2016. Just imagine how history would have been written if HRC had won. I’ll have great difficulty ever believing a mainstream historian again.

    If by some miracle “Trump” does win, Jared will take the credit and his influence over policy will increase. And oh yes, after Trump’s loss, Jared’s ridiculous gibsmedat “Platinum Deal” sets a new auction floor bid in the vain attempt to buy off the anti-white vote. You dare oppose the D’s new and improved Platinum-Plus Deal? Why even Hitler incarnate himself proposed the original version of the “deal”. Let’s make the deal a real McDonald’s super-size one! More platinum, yeah, right, that’s the ticket, maybe throw in a platinum blonde for every aspiring rapper too! The past 60 years we haven’t spent nearly enough to help You-Know-Who succeed at God-knows-what.

    The Rs will also lose the Senate. Statehood for PR and DC, 15-member Supreme Tribunal Court. It’s the death of the Republic, sorry.

    After the election the Uniparty will ram through amnesty and end up ruling indefinitely (like the IRP in Mexico). The “Great Reviling” (already started, actually) will follow the successful “Great Replacement”.

  41. vhrm says:

    I’ve got no reason to think that fivethirtyeigth.com and them are wrong so… we’re looking at a Biden win.

    Maybe the recent looting in Philadelphia gives Trump a better shot in Pennsylvania than the polls have shown, and MAYBE some Trump voters have been lying low in polls out of fear of cancellation, but i suspect that’s just wishful thinking.

    Prediction? Pain.

  42. Anonymous[214] • Disclaimer says:

    The Sailer strategy gave Trump the win in 2016.
    But now that it has become clear that Trump is the real deal, he is going to win the largest portion of the black and Hispanic vote since WW2 by any Republican candidate, permanently destroying the Democratic electoral strategy.
    Playing to WIN ultimately gets you the votes of most who want to win. And that’s all you really need.

    • Agree: V. Hickel
  43. Dave Pinsen says: • Website
    @Lot

    Riots are not about the stated pretexts, but solving the collective action problem of getting a lot of black criminals all together at once in an area worth looting…

    When’s the last time blacks have rioted over an election result? The proximate reason cities are boarding up ahead of the election is because of leftist anti-Trump groups like Shutdown DC. It’s possible there will be opportunistic looting in the wake of rioting by groups like Shutdown DC, but those groups aren’t planning to riot if Biden wins; they’re planning to do so if “a coup” happens, i.e., if Trump wins reelection, which they (and the people boarding things up) don’t seem to think is terribly unlikely.

    Dave’s citation to Trafalgar Group on one hand, and all the dozens of other polls on the other like they should be weighted equally, displays confirmation bias.

    I didn’t cite a Trafalgar poll; I mentioned Trafalgar’s point about shy Trump voters, and explained how they got around that in 2016 (by asking people who they thought their neighbors were voting for). Then, I quoted the IBD/TIPP poll’s most recent answer to that question. All of the national polls that ask people who they’re voting for have Biden leading, including IBD/TIPP. But when IBD/TIPP asks people who they think their neighbors are voting for, by 45% to 37% they say their neighbors are voting for Trump.

    I also mentioned Gallop’s question about whether you’re better off now than you were four years ago, which 56% responded “yes” to. A surprising response, given the COVID-19 lockdowns, riots, etc. this year, and one that suggests support for the incumbent.

  44. Do you have a full picture of everything that is happening right now?

    I don’t.

    Nobody does. It’s a simple way to make a fool out of oneself to claim that one did.

    Besides that, to claim the following is clearly wrong: That you’d necessarily be thinking to have a full picture of everything that is happening right now by making a prediction of what might happen in the near future. So – Trump will win, I guess. If not – Joe Biden would be the most likely winner as of now. Don’t tell him though, because he might quite easily not remember what – you predicted.

    I make one more prediction: Those who did not yet manage to see that this Joe Biden guy (Joe Rogan) has a form of dementia might well get the chance to – experience – more about this emerging condition.

  45. @Mr. Blank

    Mr. Blank wrote:

    Granted, I live in a conservative region which Trump will easily win, but still. I’ve never seen this kind of enthusiasm for any other Republican during my lifetime. (Maybe it was there for Reagan in ’84, but I was too young to notice.)

    No, it was not there for Reagan: it was a real stunner in 1980 when Reagan won an absolute majority in a three-way race. I was at Stanford: the expression on faculty members’ faces was… interesting. Of course, Reagan was expected to win in ’84, but his support was firm, not ecstatic.

    I live in Sacramento. The other day I was chatting with an Afghan immigrant I know — he seems to be leaning towards Trump (no one actually says so in California — Trump supporters communicate with a wink and a nod).

    More recently, I started chatting with a black security guard at the local library. He is considering Trump or the Libertarian Jo Jorgensen.

    It’s hard for me to see Trump beating the poll deficit, but I can remember elections going back to 1960 (barely, for 1960), and I have never seen enthusiasm like the Trump supporters’. The guy is a cross between the Beatles and the Energizer Bunny.

    On the other hand, everyone hated Nixon (except Pat, Julie, and Tricia), and he won.

    So all bets are off — only a fool would put real money on this. (I will give my own money-free prediction below, just for fun.)

  46. @Boethiuss

    Boethiuss asked:

    If it was the right choice to support Trump in 2016, what’s the logic in supporting him now?

    Because otherwise we end up with President Kamala in well under four years.

    And the best thing that can be said about Kamala is that she does not really believe in her leftist ideology because she does not really believe in anything (except advancing Kamala).

    Boethiuss also asked:

    Who is the new blood Trump is bringing in that could help us in 5-10 years time?

    Josh Hawley. Matt Gaetz. Jim Jordan. Kayleigh — don’t underestimate her because she is beautiful; she actually is smart.

    And then there are the journalists who have come to prominence because of Trump — Mollie Hemingway, Kim Strassel, and, of course, Tucker.

  47. @Mr. Blank

    a second Trump win would probably be the huge wake-up call the profession needs.

    As they say, “You can’t wake a person who is pretending to be asleep.”

    Whatever the polling industry is at this point, it’s not an industry dedicated to presenting an accurate snapshot of the political landscape, any more than the news industry is dedicated to presenting a fair and balanced account of important issues.

    • Agree: Coemgen
    • Replies: @Known Fact
    , @Cato
  48. @JohnnyWalker123

    LOL that tweet from Bloomberg CityLab–that looks like a paintball gun to me. Eeek!

  49. @John Milton’s Ghost

    This election may likely be more like 2012 than 2016, when Romney’s incompetent advisors …
    Except there was no real enthusiasm for Romney, even though he was faking being conservative then.

    • Replies: @John Milton’s Ghost
  50. Kronos says:
    @Boethiuss

    First of all, this isn’t working in terms of new blood. Who is the new blood Trump is bringing in that could help us in 5-10 years time? Stephen Miller, maybe. One guy.

    That and the support staff. There a lot of people in a White House Administration that never receive media coverage. Take Miller for example. He’s a super talented guy who’ll network with other like-minded individuals for future projects. Those relationships are long lasting. It helps future political operators and/or media writers thrive and flourish. You’ll get more Tucker Carlsons as the network spreads. If the woke media ignores the faceless boring masses working in the Trump White House the better.

    But even if that were the case, that only goes as far as 2016 anyway. If it was the right choice to support Trump in 2016, what’s the logic in supporting him now?

    1) Further destabilizes the Democratic Neoliberals. They need to be in power to bribe and perform shady activities to sustain the leadership and the party. Clinton operators have been suffering political blue balls since 2016. They need to get back into office to perform those favors or their financial support further falters.

    2) Future Supreme Court appointments. Thomas and others need replacements soon. To further shore up the Court isn’t a bad idea.

    3) Show donors and voters that Trumpism is here to stay. That Bush Republicanism and Neoconservatism are essentially dead. That kids found Bush II to be such a loser that Nazism seems cool in comparison. 1988 was over 30 years ago.

    4) Help save a Bernie Bro in Need. I can’t stress it enough that the Bernie Bros are in critical danger if Biden gains the White House. They’re essential for future deals focusing on increasing worker wages and clamping down on Boomer “Free Market for Thee but not for Me” economic policy making. If Biden wins there’ll be multiple Ned Stark heads on pikes and countless Red Weddings. (Game of Thrones references.)

    5) Neoliberal and Cultural Marxist tears are fuckin delicious! Their pain and misery gives me strength and vigor. Let’s encourage Trump to sign more anti-woke executive orders.

  51. Kronos says:
    @Polistra

    If we’re right you owe us drinks. (And not the small cheap ones either.) I want the biggest Bloody Mary the World has ever seen. I’m talking rivers of blood from “The Shining” big!

    And I want it served by Hunter Biden, the coolest D.C. party animal I’ve ever read about.

    • Replies: @Polistra
  52. jim jones says:

    Hopefully Donald will collect a couple of his Nobel prizes just before the election leading to rejoicing in the streets:

  53. Mike Tre says:

    The juice win. They always do.

  54. JimB says:

    A corollary of Steve’s point can be summarized by Mark Twain, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” It’s just hard to grok a blue wave election when nobody likes the corrupt doofus candidates at the top of the Democrat slate who are running on Californicating the whole country. Hasn’t California been living in a world of shit long enough that people in Peoria, Albany, Milwaukee, and Boston have figured out that eliminating checks and balances in government and turning over power to minority idiots might not be in their interest, even if they happen to be minorities? Or has this special knowledge failed to spread beyond people living stunted lives in the Golden State?

  55. Polistra says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    So, um, how’s the new job search going?

  56. Polistra says:
    @Kronos

    If you’re right, drinks are on the house!

    But if you’re wrong? R.I.P. America.

  57. Trump 274 to Biden 264. The House of Representatives will name Biden the Presidential winner on 6 January 2021, and Kamala Harris will become acting President under the 25th Amendment during US Black History Month 2021.

  58. The Democrat cheating factor makes this one impossible to call.

  59. Anonymous[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot

    What was your prediction in 2016?

    • Replies: @Lot
  60. Bitfu says:

    269-269 in 2020

    My prelim electoral college map comes in with Trump ahead by 249-233. I’m left with four toss-ups—MI, MN, PA, WI.

    At this point I have Arizona going Dem, [The unctuous Mark Kelly appears to be the favorite over McCain’s replacement.] I have Ohio going Red.

    VA is Dem, and NC is GOP–again a fair and I believe most likely split.

    So, we’re left with mu toss-ups.

    Michigan goes Biden—so add its 16 to the 233 Biden tally. We’re at 249 to 249.

    I reasonably have PA (20) going Trump and the ten each from both MN and WI going Biden.

    We are deadlocked. 269 to 269 in 2020!

    [I got my prelim Electoral College map from the following article in The Federalist touting MN as the most important state. All in all, I thought it was a good prelim map. I just don’t agree that MN goes Trump, so here we are.]

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/minnesota-could-be-the-surprise-upset-that-hands-trump-a-second-term/

  61. @Boethiuss

    Boethiuss was saying Trump was doomed back in 2016 as well. A good omen.

    • Agree: Ron Mexico
  62. @JohnnyWalker123

    That also doesn’t tell you whom those people are voting for. I see more democrats breaking ranks this year than republicans. Just a gut feeling.

  63. @Dave Pinsen

    If they’re confident Biden is going to win, why are they boarding up their windows?

    It’s very common for winning sports teams to riot. There aren’t very many examples of winning political partisans rioting but then again there aren’t very many examples of losing political partisans rioting either (the brooks brothers riot was an obvious hyperbole). We’ve been blessed with a riot free manifestation of politics that may be coming to an end. Who knows how the riots will work if that happens?

  64. @Dave Pinsen

    If they’re confident Biden is going to win, why are they boarding up their windows?

    It’s not called rioting … it’s called Black Friday.

  65. EV predictions:
    Biden 216-374 with a most likely total of 283
    Trump: 165-322 with a most likely total of 255
    Biden with slightly better than even odds of winning.

    But it’s going to be close enough that the “true vote” will not be knowable with enough accuracy to determine a clear winner. It will be decided by other means, legal or extralegal.

  66. TTSSYF says:
    @Flip

    Has anyone here actually listened to Kamala at one of her rallies? I started listening to one she held yesterday in Texas, and it was so painful and embarrassing I had to turn it off. It’s hard to see how Trump loses, short of the Dems stealing it.

    • Replies: @Polistra
  67. Trump will win. But after watching Biden gaffe compilations I think it would be an entertaining presidency if he wins. The battle royale between Dr. Jill and Kamala will be an epic catfight, but eventually Harris will prevail. In the meantime Dr.Jill better keep Kamala away from Joe’s oatmeal.

  68. Dan Smith says:

    2020 has been such a shi* show I’m taking the pessimist track. Biden wins, the Dems take the Senate, Harris becomes President before the midterm elections, lockdowns continue indefinitely, massive riots when Derek Chauvin walks.

  69. MEH 0910 says:

    OT:

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  70. V. Hickel says:
    @Anonymous

    Your question reveals a staggering lack of intellectual capacity and is unworthy of a response.

  71. JMcG says:

    Trump. Not betting the house on it though.

  72. Trump lost about 1/3 of Mormons to Evan McMullin in 2016. That McMullin vote accounted for the margin of victory in Nevada that year.

    Mormons, as illustrated by the prominent example of Glenn Beck, have come around to Trump in a big way.

  73. @RichardTaylor

    For me personally, a working class / rural populist uprising is not what I’m looking for.

    I’ll take it, it’s better than nothing for sure. I voted for Trump last time and will again.

    I’m a white college-educated professional living in a major metro area on the East Coast. I’m not even conservative really, I’m moderate or liberal on most issues.

    What I really want is for other college-educated metropolitan professionals to just stop being so unbelievably brainwashed about race and gender.

    It’s a weird situation that I feel more comfortable with Joe Sixpack than with the people who are supposed to be “my people.”

    I’m sick of not being able to say what I think. The ideas that Steve expresses deserve to be respectable.

    How can so many smart people be so stupid?

    It’s a rhetorical question, I know the problem is the intellectual dishonesty of the media and universities, and I know that Jewish influence is a major factor in that.

    But still, I’m amazed that so many smart people don’t see through it or aren’t at least skeptical. I’ve felt that way since the Michael Brown Hoax. It was just so blatant! The black kid was obviously the perpetrator and not the victim!

    That was over five years ago and things have only gotten worse!

    White guilt is like a drug that scrambles people’s brains. Somebody should do a remake of those 80’s anti-drug commercials: “This is your brain on white guilt” voiceover as an egg is cracked into a hot frying pan.

    • Replies: @Marty
    , @Richard B
  74. Trump 326
    Biden 212

    People will be surprised by the magnitude of the rural working class vote. Rural nationalists vs Urban globalist oligarchies. Think Philip of Macedon Vs city-states like Athens and Sparta. City-states were pre-occupied with living a certain lifestyle and accumulating wealth. They took for granted water, food and land masses controlled by rural people and were crushed.

    Democracy is about more than elections, it’s about the people controlling the government, not the government controlling the people. The testicles of the urban globalist oligarchies are about to be squeezed by those who control the land, the food, the water and the energy.

    Nevada, New Hampshire leaning Trump by thin margins. Most likely to be stolen by vote fraud: Nevada.

    Arizona to Trump. Republicans fleeing California helping to offset unfavorable demographic changes.

    Maine 2 district Trump (1 vote). Possible Trump could surprise and take 2 votes for winning the state. Maine 1 district to Biden for sure.

    Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to Trump. Minnesota could be tightest race of these four states. Trump trade policies helping Iron Range. Norwegian voters going heavily for Trump in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa because they see Trump as anti-war.

    Iowa comfortably for Trump.

    Ohio a very easy win for Trump. I bet this state early and will double my money. More of an investment, not a bet. Easiest money I’ll make all year, although I said that after betting on Lagoa to be the SCOTUS nominee. I see Barrett as being unreliable, like John Roberts, Gina Haspel, Christopher Wray and many others. Trump tricked again.

    Florida to Trump fairly easily. Later returns on election night will be huge for Trump. Magnitude of SW Florida vote for Trump will surprise many. Cubans more for Trump than in 2016. Venezuelans fleeing to Miami-Dade will help keep Florida red. Blue collar voters who haven’t voted in years will be voting Trump.

    As Florida goes, so goes North Carolina. Pennsylvania and Michigan move in same direction as Florida in presidential elections. Understanding that some states are correlated with others can lead to multi-state parlay betting opportunities. Getting Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan on a parlay bet at 4 or 5 to 1 would be a great betting opportunity, it’s not like picking 5 NFL games where if you are really good you might have a 55% chance of getting each game right.

    Colorado is a blue state that Trump could win if he really kills it. Might be worth a longshot bet for a small amount.

    Biden win possible but I think Trump 80% likely to take it and possibly by a wider margin than anyone is predicting.

    I got lucky and nailed every state in 2016. Unlikely that happens again. I started in 2020 with assumption that Biden is a cadaver and Trump will do 1.7% better against him than he did against Hillary in every state, taking into account CV-19 and the lockdowns. Then I looked at multiple factors state by state. Betting 75% of my net worth on this election.

    Norpoth model, Oxford model, voter enthusiasm, new voter registrations and super-analyst Robert Barnes all say Trump wins. Everything says Trump takes it, except the polls. Nate Silver is a fraud and so are most of the polls he promotes. Silver has lied about the ROI you would have made betting on his election predictions over the years. Reality: Betting on Silver over the years would have lost you money (per Robert Barnes, who tracks this corrupt fraudster).

    Cheers!

    • Replies: @AnonAnon
  75. Ditritus says:

    The election will be a landslide.
    I just don’t know which side the land will slide.

  76. Spud Boy says:

    I tried to tell my liberal daughter that the polls in the swing states were wildly inaccurate in 2016. She replied that they were all within the margin of error.

    If it was a “margin of error” thing, why did they all err in the same direction, breaking for Trump in the end? You would expect statistical errors to be more or less evenly distributed.

    The pollsters are trying to create reality by leaning Biden, but in order to maintain credibility they need to stay within the margin of error. Predicting Trump has a 20% probably of victory is within the margin of error.

    I’m in line with Scott Adams, one of the few pundits who called it for Trump in 2016. He predicts Trump will win, based on enthusiasm and higher % of black support than is typical for Republicans.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
  77. Anon7 says:

    What will happen if Biden/Harris takes the presidency and Dems take the Senate:

    “…[Biden] has returned. His Orcs have multiplied; his fortress of Barad-dur is rebuilt in the land of Mordor. [He] needs only this [Presidency and Senate] to cover all the lands in a second darkness. He is seeking it. Seeking it, all his thought is bent on it…”

    If he regains it, your valour is vain, and his victory will be swift and complete: so complete that none can foresee the end of it while this world lasts…

    • Agree: Polistra
  78. theMann says:

    I am of two minds about the election.

    In version 1, Trump wins easily, and all non-lockdown Republicans win as well. For the reasons that:

    Republicans have done a great job of registering new voters, upwards of 5 million.
    Rational people don’t vote for a walking corpse and Hillary-without-the-charm.
    People who have been actively hurt by CoronaFraud are the most furious voters in the country, and no pro-lockdown, pro-face mask candidate will do well this election cycle.
    Republicans, standing for some kind of Law and Order, do seem to have really impoved their standing with non-White voters.
    In any case, Trump will get a lot more votes than in 2016.

    In version two, the Dems win narrowly, for the reasons that:
    1. They are very, very , good at Vote Fraud.
    2. The hysterical ninny (mostly female) nitwits who are still shitting themselves over CoronaFraud, despite the evidence of their own eyes telling them there is no pandemic, are likely going to be extremely influenced by the Media in other ways, and Orange Man bad.
    3. Back and back and back to CoronaFraud – it is possible a lot of people will blame Trump, since he is the one in office during this, and has hardly acted decisively.
    4. The Satancrats end up with significantly more votes than 2016, which allows them an Electoral Map victory. (I am skeptical – I can’t think many people who didn’t vote for Hitlery in 2016 will vote for Biden’ my time to the grave in 2020, but voters aren’t rational.)

    I think New Jersy will be an early election night key:

    1. If Trump gets fewer votes than 2016, Republican disaster.
    2. If Trump gets a lot more votes, and the Satancrat ticket doesn’t, Republican landside.
    3. If both tickets get a lot more votes, toss-up Election. Then it is Voter Fraud vs. Voter Registration, and likely some real chaos.

    The inner me is hoping for number 2, but in all seriousness, America that was is finished ,and the sooner we get to full up Civil Insurrection, leading to Civil War, the sooner the real issues get decided.

    • Thanks: Ron Mexico
  79. Corvinus says:
    @Anonymous

    Gold box for your comment.

    From Ron Unz (finally, some clear thinking)…

    Frankly, both sides are so totally agitated and extreme, the Trumpists would be saying and believing it, even if it were entirely false and impossible. It’s hard to figure out what’s happening when everyone involved is so dishonest and corrupt. Trump has always seemed like an ignorant buffoon to me, but I think the Democrats and liberals have almost gone insane in their opposition to him.

    As I’ve been telling people for weeks, the whole political situation certainly seems very bizarre and I’ve seen some pretty plausible arguments that we might end up with a “disputed” election if the numbers are fairly close in key states. Apparently, the Republicans are overwhelmingly going to be voting in person, while the Democrats will be voting by mail, meaning their ballots will be much slower to come in and be counted.

    So Trump could be ahead by wide margins on Election Night and declare victory to the cheers of his partisans. And then as the mail ballots come in, the numbers turn against him, but he and his die-hard supporters cry “Fraud!” and refuse to recognize the result.

    Remember, Trump said if he wins, there was no massive voter fraud, and if he loses, there was massive voter fraud. There is a major disconnect there. That is exactly the excuse we can expect from the Dave Pinsen’s, the A123’s, and the various anony’s who litter this blog.

  80. Biden wins, but it’s closer than the media types think because Trump wins Florida. Let’s say 305 to 233.
    I just want Trump to win more electoral votes than Romney, that pompous ass.
    The America First philosophy will have won more than 500 electoral votes in 2 elections. It will live to fight another day.

  81. Who is going to win? C’mon, the same Tribe that wins EVERY election. Silly goy!!

  82. My prediction is it is more or less the same as last time. Trump holds FL, AZ, NC (and comfortably holds TX and GA, this time at least). I would be surprised if he doesn’t get enough of the Rust Belt to win, even if maybe he gets one less state there than last time. Biden would not spend resources in MN if he was not concerned about it; he’d be in OH trying to flip it blue. The left leaning polls are definitely just trying to create a narrative. PPD, Rasmussen, Trafalgar closer to correct.

    I don’t predict a landslide. Similar popular vote loss and 279-310 EV win, riots to follow.

  83. Biden (wins PA, OH and FL) — Republicans lose senate. Hunter B. is never indicted. Amnesty and dismantling of portions of wall that are built actually torn down. Supreme Court expanded to 19 — one of the new judges is trans WoC. 150,000 ground troops in horn of Africa to secure China’s flank. Texas goes Democratic in 2024.

    • LOL: Ron Mexico
    • Replies: @Jack Armstrong
  84. AndrewR says:

    I don’t know but I think most people making predictions are engaging in wishful thinking. “I want X to happen therefore it will” is the most absurdly magical thinking, but otherwise-intelligent people very often engage in it.

    What I do know is that if the Dems had run a young, bright, good-looking white guy who focused on improving the economic situation of lower and middle class Americans, the Dems would win all 50 states and 90% of the vote. Ultimately, the fact that Biden was selected shows that the Democrats really don’t care about winning.

    • Replies: @Rob McX
  85. AndrewR says:
    @Frank G

    Or he picks a fight with the wrong GM employee on Monday during a campaign stop, gets punched in the face, falls back and hits his head on the ground, dying soon after.

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
  86. @Harry Baldwin

    Fully agree. Romney would have been the worst candidate the Republicans trotted out in the modern era, if it weren’t for McCain the election before. (Actually come to think of it the GOP more often than not nominates disappointments and frauds. Another reason why we have Trump.)

    But I think all the enthusiasm—strong as it is—-could very easily be a reflection that 30-40% of America is excited that someone finally is on their side. Even adding shy voters might not cover the gap to get to 50, even with the electoral college.

    I’ll believe the Hispanic and black support came out for Trump after the election, not before, since those polls showing increased minority support have often been a mirage, even in 2016. Too many educated whites are in their credential bubbles to ever consider Trump, and the nonwhite phalanx of the Democratic Party is only growing with each cycle. Why has Colorado gone blue from its status as purple-red? Elite whites and brown immigrants. The electoral map has an awful lot of toss ups and a lot of blue states locked down, so a Trump victory feels like filling an inside straight.

    I will love to be wrong and happy to eat crow. For me predictions aren’t about being right, just being prepared for all possibilities.

  87. @PhysicistDave

    Of course, Reagan was expected to win in ’84, but his support was firm, not ecstatic.

    His support was ecstatic in the military, primarily because in 1982 he gave us a 14% pay raise, more than double the previous years’ raises and any year since. (For comparison, when I retired in 2014, Obama gave us 1%, after thirteen straight years of war). Maybe he was trying to buy our loyalty in case of a Deep State coup. In ’82 I was an E-3 making about $700 per month. Junior enlisted personnel (back then anyway), when given a sum of money, will immediately calculate how much booze they can buy with it. I figured my raise would buy me ten cases of beer per month, or even better, fifty mixed drinks at Fannie Annie’s Saloon in Old Sacramento, which you may be familiar with. I was stationed at Travis AFB at the time. Another favorite watering hole was The Graduate in Davis. (The UC Davis co-eds really didn’t like us short-haired GIs, but they would tolerate us as long as we kept buying them drinks, hence our happiness about Ronnie’s Bonus Booze Bucks). Of course in 1984 the military would have voted overwhelmingly for Reagan anyway, but after that pay raise we would have followed him to the gates of Stalingrad.

  88. Wilkey says:

    Obviously most of the polls were way off in 2016 – at least until the very last week, when they got a little closer to the truth – and it would be nice to think they’re way off again this year, and perhaps permanently broken. But we’ve had an election in between, and the polls then were better. Democrats did well in 2018 despite an extremely good economy. If that didn’t save Republicans then I don’t know what will save them now, except perhaps – perhaps – the growing realization that the Democratic Party is fucking insane.

    This year certainly suggests the possibility of a wave election for the Democrats, but there are also a few complicating factors. Polls have showed them way ahead, and even winning key races in reliably Republican states, like “the Solid South.” That either suggests that the Republicans are in deep shit, or that the polls really are wrong. Other, non-poll indicators, such as ballots returned and growing numbers of registered Republican voters, supposedly suggest a much closer race, and maybe even a strong Republican year, if Republican turnout keeps picking up steam. Let’s hope.

    But Trump is and will continue to be a liability, in many ways. His personality turns off a lot of what were once the normal Republican demographic – educated whites. I have lots of friends who have left the Republican fold, some of them thanks to Trump, others during the Bush Administration. If the fact that the last four Republican nominees are George W Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump doesn’t seriously depress you then you probably aren’t a real conservative.

    If Trump wins the GOP will probably have a tough time holding onto the Senate in 2022 – unless Democratic insanity (i.e., rioting, which WILL be bad if he wins) finally causes “reasonable” whites who have drifted away from the GOP to wake up. If he loses then Democrats are stuck with Biden/Harris for a little while, and maybe the GOP can start building back, hopefully while not forgetting the good lessons Trump has taught them (e.g., that immigration enforcement is a winning cause, and the importance of the white working class).

    When people ask “How could 2020 get any worse?” I think the answer has something to do with next weeks elections, or the riots in response to them. Hold on to your seats, folks. Or your guns.

  89. I can say with absolute confidence that regardless of who wins, the other side is going to assume it was through cheating.

    If Trump does win, I can further predict that the response from the left will be muted. Antifa/BLM stupidly used up all their energy over the summer. They just don’t have the will or the energy to dial things up again this soon. Remember that Washington was supposed to have been under an OWS like siege for a month now and that was called off due to lack of interest.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @anonymous
  90. Biden in a landslide.

    right wingers will be on suicide watch

    Prepare for the pain, jerks

    • Disagree: TTSSYF
  91. Bugg says:

    Enthusiasm carries the day for Trump. Saw 2 things the last few months. Vacationed for a few weeks in western Maryland/Pennsylvania border.Looked like Trump signs were mandated in every small town. Biden no doubt will take Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, but how do you sell anti-frack Biden to everyone else in PA?

    And bigger shock; NY is not going red. But my new neighbors, orthodox Jews, had a YUGE rally/car parade last Sunday through Manhattan and into Brooklyn. They are not alone; middle and working class typical white people are not happy, not with Cuomo’s lockdowns nor Diblasio’s daily stupidity. There have been other rallies in the Hudson valley and on Long Island. There are 3 more in NY scheduled for tomorrow. That has never happened, not even for Reagan. If it’s like this in NY, can only imagine what it’s like in other states.

    Heard the Trafalgar group pollster of FNC yesterday. And he contended the other pollsters still have not fixed the errors in their methodology from 2016. That seems to be the case. Why do the polls suddenly tighten dramatically right before election day? Only explanation is they want to say the day after Election Day they were close, even if they spent months trying to demoralize Trump supporters. ]

    Midtown Manhattan stores including Macy’s are boarded up. They would not being doing that if they expected the lefty lovefest of Biden/Harris was a likely outcome.

    And part of me would love to see the total shitshow that would be babbling Biden, and the eventual coronation of Willie Brown’s whore. Neither of these mediocrities has run anything more significant than their mouths, and Biden can barely do that.

    • Thanks: Dissident
  92. @AnonAnon

    I’m not gonna agree with this comment in general, just because I cannot predict a win with certainty, as you do, AA. I like your spirit, though!

    I wrote to say you have a really good point about the Dems having shot themselves in the foot with this Kung Flu Panic stuff. As HailToYou has written before, this Panic vs. Anti-Panic has cut across various normal political divides. (It ought to be the Libertarians’ biggest issue in a century!). However, since the D’s are using this PanicFest to beat Trump over the head with, they are stuck with their story, through the election, or right up to a Kamela win, perish the thought.

    I have a comment on this very thread about my brief experience being unwillingly in front of the TV with CNN on. Trump has become the man of reason, and no little amount of humor, on the anti-panic side, whether he intended that or not. His own coming through a quick bout of the Kung Flu in a couple of days, none the worse for the wear and tear, has gotta help our cause.

    “Dark Winter” indeed. Biden, wearing his stupid face diaper in all the pictures now, is just disgusting and depressing to me. Any national mandate on wearing those will cause trouble from me. I’ve already had more than enough of this bullshit!

  93. @Lot

    I also disagree with him suggesting in his ZH article a purchase of EV range shares on Predictit. The various “Yes” shares in that market add up to 130. The correct approach (the Lot approach) to this market is to short every contract and make 30 before spreads and fees and taxes, not try to fight the efficient market hypothosis by going long on any of them. (And the tax/fee/spread issue applies to going long too).

    Lot, i’ve never bet in these markets. (Though it might be better than i’ve done in the stock market this year!)

    But if what–i understand–you are saying above is true–that there’s a 3o%! arbitrage opportunity–how come you haven’t shorted every damn contract until you’re driven the market back to equilibrium?

    Why aren’t you hosting us all for Lot’s iSteve private party and post-election bash at your estate in Caribbean? (I can send you my info so you can book my tickets.)

    • Replies: @Lot
  94. Whether you think Biden or Trump will win comes down to the question: do you believe the polls are accurate?

    It’s hard to evaluate that issue. Obviously, they were pretty wrong in 2016, especially in the battleground states.

    Are the polls more or less accurate than in 2016?

    On the one side, the pollsters have claimed that they have corrected for the mistakes made in 2016. But should we believe them?

    I have my doubts. 2020 is very different from 2016: norms have been lost entirely that once were respected. In 2016, for example, it was obligatory for the media to cover negative stories about the Dem candidate, and they did so. In 2020, the media refuses to cover a major negative story about the Dem candidate.

    Are we supposed to believe that pollsters will abide by norms of objectivity when the media, the entire corporate world, and even scientists (see their comments on the pandemic), have abandoned them? Pollsters come from the same educated, left wing class as all other professions — why should they be different?

    It’s well known that different polling outfits have different “house effects”. Why should we not believe that the house effects an outfit settles on will reflect their very strong political bias?

    Beyond these sources of systematic bias, there is also the real possibility of a shy Trump effect. In some regions of the country, this may not operate. Loud and proud Trump rallies in more rural areas would attest to that. But in suburbs, I can see the shy Trump voter being a significant factor. I happen to live in an educated, very much left leaning suburb. I remember well that in 2016 there was a smattering of Trump signs in the town — certainly not many, but a presence. This year, I have not seen a single Trump sign — not one. Those homes which displayed them in 2016 have nothing. Now I don’t for a moment believe that those people have one and all changed their minds about Trump — I’d be surprised if all but the smallest number did. But they clearly have decided that they must keep a much lower profile than they had. No doubt professional and social consequences would ensue if they did otherwise.

    This leads me to believe that many Trump voters in the suburbs would be quite unwilling to reveal to anybody, including a pollster, who knows who they are, that they will vote for Trump.

    Putting the picture together, I have serious doubts about the accuracy of the polls.

    But I have no idea how much impact (if any) these considerations will have on the accuracy of the polls. Whether they will be enough to overcome Trump’s deficit — even though that deficit is not so large in the battleground states — I can’t predict.

    But I can easily see how Trump might win — and even decisively in the electoral college.

    • Replies: @Thomas
    , @Corvinus
    , @Thomas
  95. @JohnnyWalker123

    Trump will easily win FL–the Trump voters will show up on election day.

    The Biden voters are terrified of CV–and they will stay home on election day.

    My prediction–Trump wins every state he won in 2016 plus NH, MN, NM, NV with VA and OR too close to call.

    Trump will win the popular vote because of terrible Democratic turnout.

  96. @Anon

    Pollsters have no clue who will actually vote.

    That is why they are useless in Presidential elections (when it is most difficult to predict turnout, particularly in individual states).

  97. Huisache says: • Website

    I could not in good conscience vote for either of these two so I cast a blank ballot in the presidential race for the fourth time in a row.

    It was a choice between Mussolini and Chance the Gardener

    No choice at all

    • Replies: @Peterike
  98. Warner says:
    @Polistra

    Agree with previous reply.

    You owe us something if you call us delusional and we turn out to be right.

    I was the only one of my friends in 2016 to be confident knowing Trump would win since February 2016.

    • Replies: @TTSSYF
  99. @HammerJack

    Even Kanye, who is running himself! How often does one contestant endorse his opponent?

    Which state was it where the Constitution Party candidate dropped out and endorsed Trump, leading to Democrats running dishonest ads for the guy?

    • Replies: @TontoBubbaGoldstein
  100. Seneca44 says:

    Biden wins in close election, but is unlikely to survive until January 20, 2021.

    • Replies: @fish
  101. Alden says:

    Off topic

    President Trump just issued a proclamation making November 1 a day of remembrance for all Americans killed by illegal aliens. Very appropriate because November 1 is the Catholic holy day the dead. Supposed to go to church and pray for all the dead souls. So pray for the survivors of those killed by illegal aliens. Or pray illegal alien murderers get convicted and sentenced to life terms. Vdare’s been pushing this for years.

    It’s just a worthless symbol. But it’s better than Democrats dancing on the graves of Americans killed by illegals. And the media rejoicing every time the percentage of Whites drops another point.

    • Agree: Polistra
    • Replies: @Hibernian
  102. Peterike says:

    The Democrat early “lead” in returned ballots is nonsense because it assumes party affiliation means a D vote. In fact, easily 20-30% of those votes in places like FL and MI are for Trump. Trump will also get an army of “never voted before” whites.

    Trump will win the real vote fairly easily. However, the post-vote fraud is another thing. Dems will be brazen about it as there are no consequences for cheating. Can they pull it off is the big question of this election. It’s the only real question.

    Another thing. If Biden wins, he could be in jail before Inauguration Day. He should be – his crimes are multiple and proven. What happens then? Very interesting.

    The media coverage will be interesting. They won’t call PA or NC on election night, no matter Trumps lead, because thanks to the Supreme Court Jesters they have days and days to count mail-in votes. Trump will need to win some unexpected states (CO? NM?) to have a lead so large that PA and NC can’t decide it.

    The biggest factor of all are the many millions who never vote. If they show up in large numbers for Trump — and significant portions of his rally audiences are these people — then he might be able to overcome what will be “the most extensive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” just like Joe Biden said.

    • Agree: GeneralRipper
    • Troll: Supply and Demand
  103. Trump will win. He’ll get Florida and Pennsylvania and that’ll be that.

    I think Biden coulda done it if he hadn’t dissed fracking.

    • Disagree: Jack Armstrong
  104. @Wilkey

    His personality turns off a lot of what were once the normal Republican demographic – educated whites.

    If they’re voting based on the candidates’ personalities, then they have been educated beyond their intelligence.

    Here are some questions to ask these educated whites:

    * What’s going to happen to your income levels when taxes go through the wazoo to pay for reparations?
    * What’s going to happen to your property values when Section 8 gets ramped up to 800?
    * What’s going to happen to your kids when, if they’re lucky enough to get into a decent college, they graduate with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt, while LaShonda and DaShawn get preferred admission and full-ride scholarships because RACISM!
    * What’s going to happen to you when your car gets stolen, when your house gets burglarized, when your daughter gets raped, and when your throat gets slit because the police have been defunded and/or are spending all of their time hanging out at Dunkin’ Donuts?

    All of these things are already happening, to some extent. The standard NeverTrump response is, “Well, what has Orange Man done about any of this?” The honest answer is, “Not as much as we’d hoped.” But do these idiots honestly believe that Biden is going to make things better?

    • Agree: Coemgen
    • Replies: @Polistra
  105. @MEH 0910

    Put that gun down, Snowdrop Sean! For the children!

    Connery backs ban on guns

    • Replies: @Acilius
    , @Rob McX
  106. Prepare for another round of:

  107. @Wilkey

    “the normal Republican demographic”

    You mean the supporters of Bush-Romney Republicanism? Christian/Market fundamentalism? The demo for the Ye Olde GOP shrinks with every passing year. Trump murdered the Republican Party; it will be his crowning achievement.

    • Agree: fish
  108. I’m a Trump fan who almost fully expects Biden to win, but I can’t quite commit myself to saying it’s 100%.

    My gut says Trump is going to win because there just isn’t that much enthusiasm about Joe Freakin’ Biden, but my head says that the polls can’t be so darn wrong all over again.

    MAYBE there is a shy Trump vote. MAYBE anti-Trump enthusiasm doesn’t translate into votes for Biden. MAYBE the polls are missing something somewhere. But I just don’t see it logically. If Trump was going to win – especially win big – we would be seeing it in the polls.

    I’m resigned to a Biden win, but I’m holding out hope that I’m wrong.

  109. @Wilkey

    But Trump is and will continue to be a liability, in many ways. His personality turns off a lot of what were once the normal Republican demographic – educated whites. I have lots of friends who have left the Republican fold, some of them thanks to Trump, others during the Bush Administration. If the fact that the last four Republican nominees are George W Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump doesn’t seriously depress you then you probably aren’t a real conservative.

    Yeah, the Republican candidates–an unimpressive lot.

    And yeah, Trump–his glaring insecurities, intellectual laziness, poor personnel choices, and rhetorical incoherence–is a frustrating guy.

    But weirdly Trump is the only one of the Republican candidates who is actually something of a conservative. He actually shows some inkling–in fits and spurts–that he wants to conserve the American people and nation.

    ~

    The real issue here is with your “friends”. Are they actually your “friends” in any meaningful sense? Do they share with you a common interest in preserving your nation for their children and yours?

    I’d submit they are “the problem”. We have a large class of educated white people who are
    a) deeply stupid
    and
    b) fundamentally disloyal.

    Millions of “educated” whites now are so deeply steeped in Jewish minoritarian ideology that they are basically clueless saps cheering on their own destruction. They are like ghetto leaders helping maintain orderly loading of boxcars for relocation.

    They have never given any serious thought to what is civilization? How is it created? Maintained? And Western Civilization–How was it built? Why is it valuable? Who and what is required to maintain it?

    These “educated” whites just float in some cloud. They are actually loyal to nothing. (Yours may be loyal to their church–but that’s it.) They are not loyal to and do nothing to maintain Western civilization or the American nation. They don’t even think about the former–though they live off of its accomplishments. And they have a deeply stupid, ridiculous notion of the later. They nominally “care” about their family, their children … but have no deep loyalty toward their future and vote against their children’s, their posterity’s own future and survival.

    Your “friends” are the problem..

  110. Trump wins the electoral vote with similar numbers to 2016.
    He also wins the popular vote this time.

  111. @PhysicistDave

    Rose colored glasses my friend.

    • Agree: Jack Armstrong
  112. @Achmed E. Newman

    “Dark Winter”

    This is a term currently in use by the creepy technocrat class. Skullface Joe doesn’t know its origin or what it implies. He’s just a senile old coot yelling at everybody from the podium. Those dark aviators aren’t working for him. The Biden campaign is like something from a tedious and unfunny mockumentary. And then the realization of Kamala waiting in the shadows, drooling at the prospect of becoming the Whore of Babylon. That’s when hilarity kicks-in.

    • Agree: HammerJack
  113. Acilius says: • Website
    @Reg Cæsar

    People keep saying that the polls were wrong in 2016. But the last polls that year showed HRC with a lead of 1 or 2 percentage points in the overall popular vote; in reality, she won that vote by about 3 percentage points, not a statistically significant difference. They showed Trump with leads in states and districts that combined for 260 Electoral Votes; he won all of those votes. Most important, they showed four states each of which had at least ten Electoral Votes- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota- as so close that they were true toss-ups. And the final vote in all four of those states was in fact extremely close.

    So, a person who simply looked at the polls in 2016 would have concluded, and concluded correctly, that HRC had less than a seven percent chance of winning the election. Since any of the four true tossup states would have given the Electoral College to Trump, her chance of winning the presidency was the same as her chance of flipping a coin four times in a row and getting heads every time. The reason so few people believed that to be the case was that they did NOT believe the polls. What went wrong in 2016 was over-reliance on models. That isn’t to say that things will work out the same way this time- maybe this time the polls really will turn out to be screwy- but let’s be clear about what happened last time.

  114. I’m probably biased, having read too many lefty stats sites like 538.
    Soooo…

    Biden wins with 315 EVs. The senate goes Dem 51-49.
    I don’t like that, but it will be interesting to watch the Manchins and Cinemas contort themselves to appease the kkkrazies in The Coalition. Sleepy Joe too.

    I wouldn’t wager much on my prediction.

    For my physical well being, I will NOT spend election night in my Buffalo (city) place. If Trump wins, the left will get ugly. I’ll be armed up with family in the burbs.

  115. Anon[449] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    The Holocaust
    What was WWI really about
    Spanish Black Legend
    Liberté Fraternité Egalité

  116. Mike1 says:

    The “polls” are actually showing a Trump win. If you understand basic math the polling quoted everywhere is comical. Back when this was mostly an IQ blog I bet a dozen other people would have already pointed this out (and known why).
    That being said, polls can still be wrong. I have correctly picked every election winner for forty years (in multiple countries I care about) by a simple and unscientific method: hive buzz. Humans have an excitement vibe they give off which is unmistakable if you look for it. It is not being strident it is a genuine interest in something. Whatever this feeling is predicts elections. Based on this I give Trump the win.
    My guess (not prediction) is that R keeps the Senate but with low enough numbers that the fake R’s control what happens and that D keeps the House. If this happens the US will be borderline ungovernable.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Thanks: Manfred Arcane
    • Replies: @JimDandy
  117. Anonymous[299] • Disclaimer says:

    Senile Joe will win. I voted party-line Republican, except on the Presidential ballot, where I voted for him. It’s not because of accelerationism, it’s just that I don’t want my children growing up with a man and a movement that epitomizes loser values in power. What do I mean by loser values?

    1. Obsession with words and thoughts. Winners have the mindset that “sticks and stones may break my bones, but your words will never harm me.” This mentality is alien to the loser, who is constantly on the lookout for slights and people looking at him wrong. My loser uncle once told us he was gonna quit drinking, failed, then lashed out at us that “you didn’t believe in me anyway,” as if our skepticism somehow actioned-at-a-distance him to keep opening that bottle. Whenever I ask here why Trump hasn’t accomplished much, his fan base cites the media as if negative stories somehow override actual political power. He was gonna do an executive order on that, but then the media published a false story, and he just couldn’t do it after that.

    2. Yelling and screaming at people and expecting the target’s behavior to change. The loser thinks a weak person is someone who speaks softly, and a strong person is someone who yells loudly. You’ve all seen losers yelling at their kids or their SO’s in the park. Often they don’t do anything more than yell and then wonder why the target’s behavior doesn’t change. Trump yells about the deep state but never bothers to purge it. He seems to think that merely making it clear he is angry will force it to reform. His fan base gives him massive applause merely for being “brave enough” to acknowledge certain issues as problems. It is true as they say that the first step toward fixing something is acknowledging that there’s a problem. But they seem to think that doing so means you’re 95% of the way toward solving it.

    3. When the loser does threaten consequences, the threats are usually empty. When I worked in fast food as a kid there was a woman who yelled at the boss that “if things don’t change around here, I’m outta here.” I asked another co-worker if he thought she would quit, and he laughed in scorn and said “no, she’s been saying that for years.” The loser sees the winners making credible threats, sees other people’s behavior being modified due to those threats, and believes that the threats alone are all that’s necessary. When the threats don’t work, he concludes that next time he’ll have to yell louder.

    4. An inability to see one’s own enemies. The loser often surrounds himself with people who derogate him behind his back and who undermine what he tries to accomplish. Because of his over-emphasis on words over actions, he’s a sucker for a good apology, for those willing to momentarily grovel before him. Thus, loser Trump hires people with indisputable records of attacking him like Anthony Scaramucci and Raj Shah. His supporters defend him with the typical loser logic that he “had to” do it. 14 million people voted for him in the primary, but, his cuckolded supporters say, none of them are qualified to serve in his administration, them being convinced that these qualifications are a requirement spelled out somewhere in the constitution.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  118. @Achmed E. Newman

    Chocolate, vanilla or butterscotch?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  119. Let’s stop pretending that the so called “government” has any legitimacy.

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  120. @Harry Baldwin

    Agree. The typical mainstream news story about Trump has ranged from hearsay and innuendo to outright lies and fabrications. A mainstream public poll regarding Trump is just another news story, only coated with a thin veneer of science — like those old aspirin ads with an actor in a white labcoat. So why would it be accurate or even try?

  121. @Kronos

    The Blacks fear Harris will become a Gulag enforcer and retaliate against all those who rioted and just wanted a free TV.

    If Dems win, I hope that’s true, and her previous record shows it might.

    (

    Black

    riots in Democratic cities are no longer my concern, I don’t live there anymore. It’s GREAT tv!)

    Yeah, well, I’m sure they’ll figure out a way to get to rotters like you. It couldn’t happen to a better person.

    I hope Trump wins, but I’m with Steve–no way to do anything but cheerlead.

  122. Thomas says:

    I’ve come around on Trump’s chances in the last week or so. Mostly by realizing that the majority of polls are commissioned and published by the same Lügenpresse that lies about everything else. The mainstream narrative is that polls have given Biden a stable, consistent lead for the past six months. Which would make those polls probably the only thing that has been consistent and stable in this country in the past six months. Biden was in Minnesota yesterday and he and Obama will be in Michigan today. That’s not consistent with the blowout blue wave Dems are dreaming of.

    Right now, I see a competitive, close race. My prediction: Trump takes Florida, sweeps the South, wins Ohio and Iowa, and also takes Arizona plus the two swing EVs from Maine and Nebraska. (The gun issue has been the dog that didn’t bark in this election but it matters a lot in Arizona in particular.) That gets him to 260, and any one of the four Upper Midwest states then puts him over the top. I think he’ll take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He might get Minnesota if he’s lucky. 306-316 EVs.

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/En1nP

    • Agree: Farenheit
    • Replies: @Known Fact
    , @Anonymous
  123. Mikael_ says:
    @AnonAnon

    Pretty much agree.

    Only one more point you didn’t mention:
    This election’s “Deplorables” moment was the “I hope he dies” comment wave when he was in hospital, without any Dem calling for temperance.

  124. @PhysicistDave

    Josh Hawley. Matt Gaetz. Jim Jordan. Kayleigh — don’t underestimate her because she is beautiful; she actually is smart.

    Kayleigh really is something else. She really seems to enjoy jousting with and trolling the media, much like Trump. Easily his best hire.

    Don’t sleep on Governor Kristi Noem, who is campaigning as a surrogate for Trump and under heavy media assault for not locking down and pushing masks.

    Of course, the media will run the same tired, “flyover rube,” playbook they ran on Palin, even though Noem seems to be much sharper than her forerunner.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
  125. @Boethiuss

    The 2018 Senate election was dangerous for Democrats because the group running was elected in 2012, along with Obama. The Republicans only managed to flip one or two seats. Trump is likely responsible for this.

    This election is dangerous for Republicans Because it is the class of 2014 who took the Senate from the D’s as a reaction against late Obama era misgovernance. If they lose seats here, then 2022 will bode ill: 22 R’s won in 2016.

    So the real issue is the Senate, as you’ve identified.

  126. In California, Prop 15 would change property tax laws to raise $billions more for public schools. It will lose.

    Arizona Prop 208 would impose an income tax surcharge on high earners .. and redistribute the money to schools. It will pass.

    Dallas school district is pushing a $3.7B bond. It will pass.

    Across LA County, there are several school bond issues. LAUSD (Measure RR) wants $7B. Other districts combined want $1B. All will pass.

    Oakland USD is pushing a $735M bond (Measure YY). It will pass.

    Across San Diego County, ~$400M in school bonds. Half of the questions will pass (teach half of the undocumented kids).

    SFUSD Prop J would raise $50M/yr ($300/parcel). It will pass.

    Portland OR: Measure 26-215 ($1.2B for schools). Pass.

    Washington Referendum 90 seeks to nullify the law for the schools to teach “comprehensive” sex education to 6th graders (beginning in 2022, kindergarteners) and up. It will fail (i.e. voters favor sex ed).

    Win or lose, public school districts will always come back to taxpayers and ask for more.

  127. Barnard says:

    It would be funny to see Trump lose a couple of the rust belt states he won in 2016, but flip Minnesota and end up winning the election. I am not sure what percentage of the true vote he would need to overcome the well practiced fraud operation of Minneapolis-St. Paul Democrats, but would guess it is north of 52%.

  128. My heart and prayers say Trump landslide.

    My head says this country will be stolen via fraud and lawfare so the swamp can keep selling the country to China and wasting blood and treasure in useless wars.

    One thing that doesn’t get mentioned enough is everything Trump has done versus the do-nothing Dems and their nihilistic platform of lockdowns, riots, and infinite taxes for reparations.

    I mean, don’t the normie independents and undecideds notice this or are they that entranced by the MSM spell?

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
  129. I think Biden is winning. Kamala will be president within a year. Adios, America!

  130. Ian says:

    The good news is, Trump was cruising to reelection as recently as nine months ago.

    The bad news is, his chances of reelection dropped literally by about half or more in the six weeks after Covid first hit. People were terrified and craving leadership, and he tone-deafly acted the Nero and just kept tweeting about the stock market. Also, somehow people thought the George Floyd video gave the Dems moral authority to do a massive lurch forward in their long march towards takeover of America.

    The good news is, none of the Dem candidates in this field this election were strong. Biden is obviously a pervert, senile, and a man of low accomplishment. He’s run for president a number of times before, and lost decisively each time. Also, as the George Floyd protests transformed into riots, murders, and billion$ of arson and looting damage, people started to fear and resent radical leftism and look for security and stability.

    The bad news is, it doesn’t matter. Biden reassures people by not seeming too radical and reminds people of the comparative peace that many of them felt the Obama years (a peace that is not coming back any time soon no matter who is elected, but people are too dumb to know that). So, as of a month ago, Biden was way up in the polls.

    The good news is, Trump was doing better than the polls showed. The polls are skewed in favor of Dems, both to intentionally try to demoralize the right, and because lib pollsters are stuck in their lib bubble and make lib assumptions about the people they are polling.

    The bad news is, the polls are not that skewed. Biden was still winning by plenty.

    The good news is, Trump has much momentum on his side and his numbers are rising. He did well in the final debate, his rallies are pumping up enthusiasm, Repubs are believing victory is possible, and the Hunter Biden laptop family corruption stuff is truly a damning bombshell.

    The bad news is, not all momentum is on Trump’s side – Covid is spiking again and the market just cratered again. Also, the media has successfully squashed most people from having any awareness of the Hunter laptop stuff, and, if people have heard about it, they have been successfully deceived that it is simply desperate Republican disinformation.

    The good news is, the corruption issues revealed by the laptop aren’t going to go away, and what the media just did in burying this story is eventually going to be shown to many people to be partisan, intentionally dishonest, and a big blow to their credibility. The media will not ever again be able pull the card that they just pulled as they just did – it was a one time shot.

    The bad news is, it doesn’t matter that it was an act of desperation, it worked this time when they needed it to. And the Repubs “I just want to be left alone by the SJW crazies” doesn’t have the same passion to it as the Dems’ unhinged rage and moralistic lust to total power. So, the Dems are going to ride their TDS to a win the White House and (barely) the Senate. And the worse news is, I imagine we’ll sooner rather than later see President Kamela, who sincerely hates white people.

    The good news is, to many low information voter’s surprise, Covid and the Civil War will continue to be miserable with the Dems in power, and also Kamela is one of the least likeable people on the planet. So, the Repubs will win huge in the 2020 midterms.

    The bad news is, during their two years of uncontested power, the Dems will have made great strides in their jihad to corrupt, destroy, and rule over legacy America.

    There’s probably some good news after that, somewhere.

    • Replies: @Polistra
  131. dearieme says:

    I think Harris will win.

  132. Hibernian says:
    @Mr. Anon

    The Dem margin in the House may be whittled away to some extent..

  133. i have Biden winning by about 100 EC votes. this has been my call for over a year now.

    there’s no math that supports Trump winning the electoral vote. he won the last election by about 100,000 votes across 3 states. between 2016 and 2020, he’s generated no new voters. but Democrats automatically generate a million new voters every year. meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Trump voters from 2016 have literally died. 2 in my family alone.

    it’s over, and it’s been over for a while. 2 years at least. Trump needed to aggressively pursue european voters for 4 years. he could never afford to let off the gas for even a few months. he didn’t. he even went hard in the opposite direction, spending most of his term going after voters who will never vote for him. so that’s it.

    but just to make sure, Democrats will cheat in every close state. and that’s what solidly closes the door on Trump. people are really underestimating the amount of Democrat voter fraud. it seems like Trump is just now realizing he is doomed due to this. it will be a repeat of 2018 when every single close election went to the Democrat.

    i suppose you could say that once the virus hit globally, that was it for Trump as well. which is also true. even if he had gone full Sailer Stategy, he would still probably have lost due to the virus.you don’t get re-elected during a historic recession.

  134. $50 on Trump, any takers? Paypal or Bitcoin. (…he who doesn’t pay will stink forever!)

  135. the actual discussion should be about the odds of Trump being arrested and charged for random BS by Democrats after he leaves office. not whether he will win the election. this election is over.

    the real conversation should be about whether Democrats will go after a President after he leaves office. i’m betting they will.

    i thought maybe Trump sensed what extremely serious danger he was in over the last couple years, and would act accordingly. but it looks like he didn’t. maybe that’s just starting to occur to him now.

  136. If Trump wins Tuesday, the Core Democratic constituents will riot and burn down cities in anger on Wednesday;

    If Biden wins Tuesday, the Core Democratic constituents will riot and burn down cities in celebration Wednesday;

    If either Trump or Biden wins Tuesday the Deplorable People will just wake up and go to work on Wednesday.

    America 2020

  137. jb says:
    @Boethiuss

    He’s not going to do anything for us that hasn’t already been done. He’s the anti-Midas of our politics. Whatever he touches turns to shit. Among other things, there are a lot of Americans who would otherwise be inclined to be with us, who will support more immigration into America for the sake of being on the opposite side of Donald Trump.

    Yes, this is the real problem with Trump. I have reasonable people in my family who could have supported a nice guy whose politics aligned with ours, but who will be voting for Biden because they loath Trump with a burning passion. Yes, the media hates him and tells lies about him, but it’s still on Trump, because he makes it so easy!

    Worse, I suspect there may be a large number of people in this country who were previously apathetic about politics, but who have been pushed to joined Team Blue because of their revulsion for Trump. If this is so it’s a disaster, and has done permanent damage to our cause, because for most people politics is personal, and once someone commits to a team it can be almost impossible to get them to switch again. Trump has made some good judicial appointments, but aside from that, what has he done for us that can’t be easily overturned by a Democratic administration? Not much that I can see.

    I’ve reached the point where I seriously think it might have been better if Hillary had won. A Republican congress could have prevented her from getting much done, and instead of four years of Trump alienating the American public it would have been Hillary doing that. Who knows what the 2020 election would have looked like, and maybe the Republican establishment would have been able to hold the fort, but if the election today were Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley running against an unpopular do-nothing Clinton administration wouldn’t that be vastly better than what we are actually looking at?

    So what about the actually election? Will we be better off if Trump wins or loses? I absolutely don’t fucking know!!! At this point the only thing I really care about is the Senate.

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  138. @Achmed E. Newman

    I cannot predict a win with certainty, as you do, AA.

    Sure you can. Look at the pros in 2016. They were certain Trump would lose.

    You don’t actually have to be accurate or correct to make a prediction with certainty; then again, the weasel words of choice might be, “With a 90% level of confidence, I believe Trump will win.” You might actually venture what he might win.

  139. @PhysicistDave

    Kayleigh is attractive and fairly pretty, not beautiful.

    Melania is beautiful. Big difference.

  140. This is fun to watch. Truman’s success is no surprise, but being from next-door Kansas also helped Landon and Dole. The Iowan-Kansan Hoover/Curtis ticket had, shall we say, mixed results in its two races.

    Missouri has a history of going with the winner, but is no longer a swing state.

    This is as old as YouTube videos get, which is why it stops at 2004. Anyone have a newer version, or ones for other states?

    • Replies: @Hibernian
  141. Prediction: Trump ends Tuesday night with slim leads in AZ, FL, PA, MN, IA. Mail-in ballot counting during the course of the week shows him losing PA and on cusp of losing in FL, MN. Legal battles ensue…

    Media frames Trump’s loss as an inevitability, start running thought pieces on “where Republicans go from here,” “Republican soul-searching following repudiation of Trumpism,” “Who can Republicans turn to?”

    Cue Jeb! The helpful folks at Slate are already excavating his name from the 2016 rubble with sensible ideas like this:

    Jeb Bush: We need a national investment in broadband internet.
    https://slate.com/technology/…/jeb-bush-broadband-internet-investment.html

    • Replies: @fish
  142. @HammerJack

    Publicly walking back a statement does not equal casting a vote.

  143. Closers can make up an astonishing amount of ground down the stretch when the front-runner stops running, and that’s what we have here. Trump is a closer, and whatever they gave Joe out behind the shedrow is wearing off quickly.

    So to dust off a phrase much-used by those cigar-chomping tabloid handicappers of yore, I’ll call it Trump — Edge in tight fit. Biden can’t get the distance, and as for Kamala, they’re out looking for her with a search party.

    (I’ve done surprisingly well by the way with horses named after Trump; there are quite a few even in Australia/NZ. But I’ve also reached across the aisle to cash tickets on Global Warming and Climate Change)

    • Replies: @Lagertha
  144. I’ll go with Trump – he’ll give up MI and maybe even PA but retain the rest for a narrow EC victory. Will lose popular vote by a similar margin as last time. Biden will concede – rioting will occur but not on the scale of May and June. People will move on.

  145. @Thomas

    Arizona is a double-whammy, with a big Senate contest also hanging in the balance. I think all the focus on how early and mail-in voting — honest or not — might affect the prez race has not given proper attention to all the crucial state and local races that could be held hostage in limbo if things drag on for days and weeks.

    Even if they know Joe’s a goner, Democrat Senate control could make life hell for the next two years

  146. Thomas says:
    @candid_observer

    Are the polls more or less accurate than in 2016?

    On the one side, the pollsters have claimed that they have corrected for the mistakes made in 2016. But should we believe them?

    From what I understand, the “correction” largely amounts to how they weight various populations to match what they think the electorate will look like. For example, supposedly in 2016, they missed the heavy support for Trump from non-college educated whites. So now, they’ll weight the responses of that group more heavily.

    The problem though is that traditional polling methodology may just not be effective anymore. How many people will devote maybe up to half an hour answering dozens of questions from a stranger on the telephone on a weeknight these days? Plenty of people don’t have the time. Plenty won’t even pick up the phone for a number they don’t recognize in general. The ones who will are likely unrepresentative of the electorate as a whole. If the methodology is no longer sound, then all the second-order analysis and weighting won’t fix bad data. It’s GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out). This applies too to all of the aggregate “models” like Fivethirtyeight that come up with predictions from a basket of polls. If the polling data itself is worthless, plugging a bunch of it into some algorithm doesn’t somehow produce anything of predictive value either. As a matter of fact, depending on the algorithm, it might wind up creating an even more misleading picture. The mainstream narrative on the polling trend this election is that Biden has had a steady and stable lead for months. The Atlantic said a couple of days ago that the polls in this election are the most stable they’ve been for any presidential election for the past 30 years. What else in America has been stable in 2020?

    And then, of course, we have all the 2020-specific reasons why the polling responses are probably useless. People are being threatened now, with doxxing, loss of their jobs, or violence if they don’t toe the woke line. The media has gone further than I ever would’ve thought possible in this country trying to manufacture a false consensus and narrative. Trump donors have been doxxed and threatened. Moderate Trump leaning voters have a lot of reason to lie. This is why some polls (like Trafalgar) include the “who do you think your neighbors are voting for?” and “who do you think will win?” questions. People who won’t answer honestly who they’re voting for will answer those. More committed Trump supporters claim to have been deliberately misstating their intentions to screw up the polls.

    Also, 2020 has created a ton of disruption in individual lives and households that has probably pushed many out of reach of pollsters. One example that I heard with respect to Biden’s fracking gaffe at the last debate: the roughnecks working in Pennsylvania’s oil patches have probably come from all over the country. They likely just rely on their cell phones, didn’t change their numbers when they moved, don’t have landlines, and live in transient apartments. They’d be effectively unable for pollsters to reach them.

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
  147. Anonymous[421] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad

    I agree with everything you write with the proviso that the “uneducated” whites have also never given serious thought to what is civilization, how is it created, maintained, etc. They have a vaguely positive feeling towards their civilization but ultimately have more loyalty to brawndo and sportsball. Many are consumed by their own degenerate behavior; blaming the media for encouraging it doesn’t take away their responsibility for their own choices.

    • Replies: @Rob McX
    , @Corvinus
  148. Anonymous[421] • Disclaimer says:
    @Thomas

    Which would make those polls probably the only thing that has been consistent and stable in this country in the past six months.

    People generally don’t change their mind on political matters. New info is filtered through the lens of existing beliefs, aliefs, and biases.

    • Replies: @Thomas
  149. @Corvinus

    Ah Covid-ius, just like the virus and back for more.

    Trump is often a buffoon and probably a narcissist, so let me get that out of the way. His going off asserting fraud if he loses is about par for the course with him.

    But do you ever go into left wing media bubbles and disabuse them? I’m serious. I’ve discovered the number of comment threads available on the left, including mainstream liberal media, is rapidly decreasing. When comments are there they are heavily curated, like the feminist colleague of mine who kicks out anyone who disagrees with the echo chorus on her blog.

    Biden can’t articulate what he will have for dinner, so I’ll give you that it isn’t the titular head of the party spouting it, but many lefty media types are happily wargaming what they’ll do to grab power. Antifa, the non-existent idea, is putting out posts of how to seize federal buildings and work with government employees should the election not go their way. There’s plenty of evidence of ballot harvesting out there, but just like racial differences, nobody can even mention it without some sort of denunciation.

    But yes let’s talk about all the mouth breathers on this site.

  150. peterike says:
    @AnotherDad

    And yeah, Trump–his glaring insecurities

    Total nonsense.

    intellectual laziness

    Total nonsense. He’s the most informed President in at least 50 years.

    poor personnel choices

    Well ok.

    and rhetorical incoherence

    Total nonsense.

    • Thanks: Coemgen
  151. Dave Pinsen says: • Website
    @Corvinus

    So Trump could be ahead by wide margins on Election Night and declare victory to the cheers of his partisans. And then as the mail ballots come in, the numbers turn against him

    Ron is uncritically repeating the mainstream media’s prepared narrative there, but,

    1) With voting by mail having started over a month ago, why should decisive numbers of ballots come in after Election Day? I put my ballot in a ballot box on September 28th. I would think most rabid Trump opponents have similarly also voted.

    2) Are we to believe that the lower conscientiousness/IQ Democratic base held onto the ballots they received at the end of September without losing them, only to fill them out correctly and deposit them on or just before Election Day?

    Remember, Trump said if he wins, there was no massive voter fraud, and if he loses, there was massive voter fraud. There is a major disconnect there. That is exactly the excuse we can expect from the Dave Pinsen’s, the A123’s, and the various anony’s who litter this blog.

    That’s not what Trump said, and that’s not what I believe; on the contrary, it’s been the mainstream media that’s suggested a Trump win would be evidence of fraud.

    Trump has said he would accept the results of him losing the election if the election were fair, not that him losing would necessarily be evidence of fraud. IIRC, the heuristic is that fraud can account for only about 1.5% of the vote somewhere before it becomes too obvious.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Corvinus
  152. Another dynamic is the absolute debt disaster coming to fruition within Left-controlled cities, e.g. Chicago, NYC, etc.

    What happens to the hoped for “stimulus” after the election when Nancy starts needling a scorned Trump to turn the other cheek and magnanimously support the very enemies that burned him?

    What happens to the “stimulus” if the Repubs hold onto the Senate and suddenly rediscover fiscal responsibility again?

  153. epebble says:

    538’s odds for Nov 5, 2016 (3 days before election): 35.3% Trump, 64.7% Clinton
    538’s final odds for 2016: 28.6% Trump, 71.4% Clinton.

    538’s odds for today: 10% Trump, 90% Biden

    Trump’s win is improbable, but not impossible.

    EC vote spread per Economist: Trump 123-283, Biden: 255-415, Mean is 188 to Trump, 350 to Biden

  154. @Dave Pinsen

    Newt predicts Trump gets 326 electoral college votes. Sounds good to me. With all the riots and Biden corruption overflowing, I will go out on a limb and predict that the GOP increases their numbers in the Senate to 55, while the big surprise is they flip the House with 225 seats, ousting Nanzi as Speaker. That would be such justice!

    • Replies: @Polistra
  155. Electoral college win for Trump, with a popular vote loss. Followed by riots and then calls to leave the outcome open because there has been some kind of issue with the vast numbers of mail-in ballots. Who knows what happens after that.

  156. @Thomas

    Nobody under 40 has a landline.

  157. Wilkey says:

    Totally OT, but here’s a perfect example of the kind of nonsense we have to put up with from supposedly “conservative” institutions and leaders: Utah Board of Higher Education is ready to adopt “equity policies” on Utah public college campuses.

    This is a board appointed in entirety by the governor of Utah, held by Republicans since 1985. The article, published by the “conservative” Mormon Church-owned KSL News, not only obviously agrees with their adoption (and raises no questions about them) but uses the new bullshit policy of capitalizing “Black” but not “white.”

    Republican governor. Board appointed 100% by Republican governor. News site owned 100% by “conservative” Mormon Church whose members are, in fact, overwhelmingly conservative. All of them advocating for the most toxic anti-white racist nonsense around. These are our “conservative” leaders.

    • Agree: Polistra
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @fish
    , @Excal
  158. Anonymous[218] • Disclaimer says:

    Biden has the same chance as Kerry 04 Dole 96 Mondale 84.

    Senators DO NOT beat incumbent potus. Especially really old senators.

    The only chance dems had 2020 was to nominate a young dynamic governor who could run against DC beltway status quo.

    No senator has knocked off an incumbent prez since 1888.

    The real way senators become prez is to run against other senators!

    BIDEN LOSES WORSE THAN HILLARY.

  159. Corvinus says:
    @candid_observer

    “Beyond these sources of systematic bias, there is also the real possibility of a shy Trump effect.”

    Or, just as likely, the “I tell my friends I’m voting for Trump”, and then pull the handle for Biden. I also think that people could be underestimating how Trump has sickened them with his antics.

    • Replies: @Peterike
  160. Corvinus says:
    @AnotherDad

    “Millions of “educated” whites now are so deeply steeped in Jewish minoritarian ideology that they are basically clueless saps cheering on their own destruction.”

    More than likely, they are making their own decisions regarding race and culture, and you are overstating the Jewish effect.

    “They have never given any serious thought to what is civilization? How is it created? Maintained?”

    Of course they have, just not in your preferred ways. It’s really insane that you insist everyone must abide by your thought process, lest they are other than normal and enemies worthy of being Pinochoted.

    “And Western Civilization–How was it built? Why is it valuable? Who and what is required to maintain it?”

    Paul Harvey said it best in July 2005 –>

    Even now we’re standing there dying, daring to do nothing decisive, because we’ve declared ourselves to be better than our terrorist enemies — more moral, more civilized. Our image is at stake, we insist. But we didn’t come this far because we’re made of sugar candy.

    Once upon a time, we elbowed our way onto and into this continent by giving small pox infected blankets to native Americans. Yes, that was biological warfare! And we used every other weapon we could get our hands on to grab this land from whomever. And we grew prosperous. And, yes, we greased the skids with the sweat of slaves.

    And so it goes with most nation states, which, feeling guilty about their savage pasts, eventually civilize themselves out of business and wind up invaded, and ultimately dominated by the lean, hungry and up and coming who are not made of sugar candy.

    • Troll: GeneralRipper
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    , @Wilkey
  161. J1234 says:

    Like others, I have serious doubts about the polls. If the poll comes from a news organization that is conspicuously anti-Trump in it’s journalistic presentations, why on earth would anyone presume it’s polling data to be accurate? The thing is that almost all polls – whether anti- or pro-Trump – have Trump losing by at least small margins. Even Rasmussen – which had Trump ahead last week and earlier – I think has Trump behind as of a couple days ago.

    However, I think the major element in poll inaccuracy isn’t as much polling bias as the lack of pro-Trump participation. Resentment towards pollsters from Trump supporters still exists after 2016. Complicating the issue even further is that Trump has had some major flubs, the most conspicuous recent example being the fiasco of the first debate. Trump went into that believing he would be having his way with an Alzheimer’s patient, thanks to pundits like Tucker Carlson and Styxhexenhammer. When that didn’t happen, he lost his cool, big time. In light of this, the polling numbers don’t seem as illegitimate as they would otherwise.

    Using nothing more than intuition, I guess I see the race as being on a razor’s edge. Unless Biden has a heart attack or pulls down his pants and poops on stage in the next couple of days, I’d say that he has the ever so slight advantage, but it could go either way.

  162. @Kronos

    Trump Landslide BABY!!!

    Absolutely! If by “landslide,” you mean a narrow electoral college victory, squeaking out wins in NC, AZ, IA, FL, and PA or MI.

    Paraphrasing Michael Moore, Trump is still the “only middle finger available” to the American people. And they want to throw one at the Media, the Swamp, the Deep State, and Big Tech now more than ever.

    • Agree: GeneralRipper
  163. Corvinus says:
    @Wilkey

    “If Trump wins the GOP will probably have a tough time holding onto the Senate in 2022 – unless Democratic insanity (i.e., rioting, which WILL be bad if he wins) finally causes “reasonable” whites who have drifted away from the GOP to wake up.”

    Perhaps “reasonable whites” have already woke up and fully realized Trump’s liabilities? We shall see, as it is a toss up for the presidency.

  164. Anonymous[218] • Disclaimer says:

    No need for a crystal ball. Lots of early vote data is already in.

    Bidenists are underperforming everywhere. FL NC will not be close. AZ GA IA not in doubt. Late breakers and leaners never go for a tired old senator in an incumbent prez election.

    Kushnerists look strong in NV and MN.

    The writing was on the wall months ago: the Old Senator will limp across the finish line.

    See Robert Barnes Law twitter for excellent deep dive data instead of corrupt fanboi nonsense like Nate Silver.

    SEN JILLJOE IS GOING DOWN HARD.

  165. Sean c says:

    I saw a poll that had Biden up 17 in WI, so I am going to say Trump wins over 300 EC votes again. I predict he wins NV in addition to what he won in 2016. The male vote in NV is higher than the female vote.

  166. Trump. Two reasons. First, boat parades. Some of you have boats. You know it’s a PITA to wake up on Saturday morning, shake off that hangover, and get the boat in the water. That thousands of people are willing to do just that to support Trump shows his deep and enthusiastic support. Shcoking levels of support, really.

    Second, Rand Paul’s wife. I keep hearing how “upper middle-class suburban women are vot9ng for Biden. Horseshit. Those women see Paul’s wife, who looks just like them, being accosted by Biden voters in the street and they think, “NFW am I voting for Biden.”

    • Agree: GeneralRipper
    • Replies: @Polistra
  167. Thomas says:
    @candid_observer

    Also, if it’s correct that polling methodology has become fundamentally unsound and unable to produce meaningfully predictive data, that’s different from systemic bias or systemic error. The advocates for the polls and the aggregate derivatives of the polls this year are taking to saying that “for Trump to win, the polling error would have to be twice what it was in 2016,” meaning that they don’t understand the difference between systemic and random error (even random error that may all be biased on one side), and they assume that the polls or aggregates of polls they’re citing are still valid predictive tools, even if they might contain some degree of error. They’re either right or wrong about this. If they’re wrong though, trying to correct for any assumed systemic error is pointless.

    As an example, in the aftermath of the first debate and Trump’s COVID diagnosis, there were polls that had Biden with supposed double-digit leads. As a predictive measure of the final vote, those polls were obviously nonsense. But they still got aggregated with polls that showed more realistic single-digit gaps (effectively within or near the margin of error).

    To make a comparison, if your speedometer is broken and stuck at 60 mph, or just produces wildly varying random numbers, there’s no systemic error you can correct for to try to find out what your actual speed is. The speedometer is just a broken and unusable instrument.

    Here’s a prediction: in the aftermath of COVID, the lockdowns, the riots, and everything else this year, the electorate of 2020 is going to be highly unusual, and won’t resemble the electorate of 2016 or any other year. Which means that many of the electorate and turnout models the polls have been using are very likely going to be off, probably way off. Early voting returns from states that are publishing that info show extremely high turnout. It’s usually been assumed that high turnout tends to help Democrats and hurt Republicans, but that may not be true this time. There is a notable enthusiasm gap between Trump’s and Biden’s voters (basically, this election is about Trump and whether more people who like, or at least grudgingly support, Trump will show up than those who hate him). Every aspect of life in this country this year has been politicized, which also probably is driving people to the polls. Among Republicans, conservatives, or anyone else on the right or who leans right, there certainly is a sense that this is a decisive election. If the Democrats win, they’re coming for the guns, will pack the Court, will kill the filibuster, will admit DC and Puerto Rico to cement a legislative advantage, will give citizenship to anybody with a pulse, etc. Practically the only “Republicans” left who aren’t supporting Trump this election are the “Lincoln Project” and other shills on the Democrats’ payroll.

    By comparison, Biden-Harris’ only real selling point is “we’re not that guy.” And it also appears that they may possibly have made a serious mistake forgoing a traditional ground game strategy in favor of encouraging all their voters to vote by mail. Traditionally, the ground game was always a strong point for Democrats, and their electoral prospects may have relied on it. Significant parts of the Democratic base which are low-information and low-propensity who would’ve been scooped up are probably at risk of getting overlooked. That’s why you’re hearing all this stuff about “souls to polls” from black churches all of a sudden this weekend.

  168. @Wilkey

    But Trump is and will continue to be a liability, in many ways. His personality turns off a lot of what were once the normal Republican demographic – educated whites.

    Indoctrinated whites you mean. Since that’s exactly what the vast majority of the garbage labeled “education” has been since at least 1980.

    Those types fully deserve what is coming. Their children as well…lol

    • Replies: @epebble
    , @Guest007
  169. @Chrisnonymous

    It’s been astounding to me to talk to some coworkers, otherwise intelligent people, who thought trump was a Russian agent for 3 years and didn’t learn anything about the media from that saga. I would say I underestimated the power of the MSM propaganda machine over the last several years, probably because I view more alt media. But it is certainly pulling hard for Biden this election and will have an effect iSteve readers tend to underestimate.

    So, my dubious prediction: trump takes FL/AZ/NC/GA/OH/IA, putting him at about 260 EV. Does he pick off a single Great Lakes state to make it over the top? They run together electorally but there’s still local variation, although the polling and other factors indicate Biden has a stronger hold there than Clinton did, because the DNC are paying attention. But I’ll be an optimist and say trump takes one, I’ll predict ~275 EV for trump, 60% confidence, for what it’s worth.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  170. Guest007 says:
    @Dave Pinsen

    How does texas get much higher turnout than 2016 and overall Hispanic turnout goes down?

    • Replies: @epebble
  171. Thomas says:
    @Anonymous

    People generally don’t change their mind on political matters. New info is filtered through the lens of existing beliefs, aliefs, and biases.

    People may not change their mind, but the fundamental assumption of polling is that the public does, or at least certain segments of it do. With all the social tumult this year, it’s implausible that there would be so little movement one way or the other, even if the results wind up regressing to a mean. It looks a lot to me like confirmation bias, the media, the pollsters, and the “modelers” are getting stable results because they’re expecting them, because their minds aren’t changing.

    One thing I’ve consistently noted is that many of the battleground state polls that are published (assuming they have any validity) typically show Biden with no more than 50% support (within the margin of error of 50%)… but then a significant gap to Trump support typically down into the low-40s. Even accounting for support for third-party candidates, that typically leaves something like 6-8% of the electorate, at least, unaccounted for. If it’s true that there really aren’t many undecideds left anymore, but that there are “shy Trump voters,” this looks like where they might be. Either that, or, again, the methodology is just useless.

  172. epebble says:
    @Guest007

    Texas has added 1.8 million registered voters. Where they are shows how the state has become more competitive.

    Most of the new voters registered in the state’s fast-growing urban counties or suburbs.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/30/texas-toss-up-voters/

    • Replies: @Guest007
  173. epebble says:
    @GeneralRipper

    Doctrine (from Latin: doctrina, meaning “teaching, instruction”) is a codification of beliefs or a body of teachings or instructions, taught principles or positions, as the essence of teachings in a given branch of knowledge or in a belief system.

  174. There are still, even with only a couple of campaigning days left, too many variables in the mix. Will Biden put his foot in his mouth one last time? Any more revelations on Tucker Carlson about Hunter? More “mostly peaceful” unrest in our rotting urban cores?

    So, unable to answer the above questions, I’ll go with a strange sort of “normalcy bias”. In tribute to the recent passing of Sean Connery, I predict a Trump victory.

    Just as you know that 007 will win at the end of every movie, because, well, he ALWAYS wins. So too will Trump win, just because Trump has ALWAYS won in the past, and this would be his chance to win a final, sweetest of all victories.

    Scientific? Not hardly. But life is not always scientific, especially in the realm of human events like elections. Life imitates art, and the career of Donald Trump is nothing if not evocative of a Greek hero battling the gods, like Prometheus stealing their fire and bringing it to mortal men.

    • Replies: @Polistra
  175. Anonymous[167] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dave Pinsen

    Ron is uncritically repeating the mainstream media’s prepared narrative there

    No, he isn’t. This narrative is held not just by mainstream media liberals, but also by many pro-Trump MAGA types. The difference is that the mainstream media’s version of the narrative holds that enough legitimate mail in ballots will put Biden over the top after election day, while the pro-Trump version holds that there won’t be enough mail ins to help Biden because enough of them will be the result of voter fraud or invalid due to technicalities.

    I don’t know which version of this narrative Ron believes, but that’s irrelevant to his point. His point is that enough partisans on both sides have been “primed” by their respective media environments to result in a disputed or contested election.

    • Agree: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
  176. Rob McX says:
    @AndrewR

    Now that you mention it, it is a bit strange. There are various reasons why a party might not be able to put forward its absolutely best candidate – but Joe Biden? If you picked some random guy out of a homeless shelter, he’d probably be more impressive.

    • Replies: @Polistra
  177. • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  178. Rob McX says:

    At least you can rest assured Biden won’t be running in 2024.

  179. Question: Lots of good discussion here about polling, but does anyone know if the candidates’ own “internal polling” really is better than the numbers doled out to the public? That’s what I often hear — but if so, how do they do it, just bigger samples?

    • Replies: @Thomas
    , @Justvisiting
  180. @Rob McX

    Let’s hope that there’s an election in 2024

    • Agree: Polistra
  181. My feelings are the exact opposite of 2016, where I thought HerTurn2016 would likely win but Trump had a fighting chance. Now I’m confident our President will win, but it’s not impossible for Creepy Joe Lockdowns to win, especially via mail vote fraud in PA etc. Like Creepy Joe Lockdowns bragged, he and the Democrats have the greatest voter fraud system in the nation.

  182. It is amazing how many people think that the man who hides in his basement and is head of possibly the most corrupt family in politics is going to win.

    It is also amazing how much enthusiasm and support there is for Trump.

    Here is another example:

  183. Mr. Anon says:
    @PhysicistDave

    Josh Hawley. Matt Gaetz. Jim Jordan. Kayleigh — don’t underestimate her because she is beautiful; she actually is smart.

    Josh Hawley might actually be worth a damn, if he can avoid neocon influence, and if America can tolerate a President who kinda looks like Nicholas Cage. Matt Gaetz is an unmarried man who adopted a teenager – I don’t know if there is anything weird there, but it sure looks weird. Jim Jordan just comes across to me like a mutton-head.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  184. There are two votes. There is the official vote. And then there are the un-adjusted exit poll results.

    According to the unadjusted exit poll results, which contradict the fixed official vote results, Donald Trump won the popular vote by a significant margin as well as the electoral college in 2016.

    He will probably repeat this performance, whether the fixed official vote allows him to win or not.

    Just so you don’t think my source is biased, it says that Obama won the 2008 unadjusted exit polls by a much huger margin than the reported official vote. The real amount of people who didn’t vote for him was almost statistically insignificant.

  185. Rob McX says:
    @AnotherDad

    But weirdly Trump is the only one of the Republican candidates who is actually something of a conservative. He actually shows some inkling–in fits and spurts–that he wants to conserve the American people and nation.

    True. It’s so hard to find any politician who says plainly that he cares about preserving his nation (this doesn’t apply just to American ones, of course). Most “conservatives”, for instance, can’t criticise immigration without claiming that’s because it’s bad for the immigrants (no employment for them, etc.) or that too much immigration would “increase racism”. I wish someone would just say, “We like our country as it is, and immigration will change it permanently”. Trump falls a long way short of the ideal defender of the American nation, but he’s an improvement on his rivals in both parties.

  186. Mr. Anon says:
    @Corvinus

    Permit me to summarize your post:

    “wah, wah, wah, wah……”

    That’s all anybody saw, as they scrolled down after reading “Corvinus says:”

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane
  187. Polly says:

    Back in the eighties, I was a pollster at Gallup. The job entailed calling strangers at 7 pm and talking them into taking my poll, which usually lasted at least a half an hour. Our calls, especially if you were new, were were usually closely monitored by our managers. If we didn’t read their question verbatim, or of we even put the “wrong emphasis” on a particular word in the question, our poll was thrown out, and we got reemed by management.

    So if the last question on a 45 minute poll was delivered “incorrectly” to a subject, the entire poll was tossed, and all that time was wasted. If that happened 3 times in one shift, you would be fired. Even if it happened less than that, but intermittently throughout the week, you were fired. I quit after two months, because the pay scale wasn’t commensurate with the daily pressure. That is, I was getting shit pay for engaging in a process that required the concentration and intensity of a NASA employee overseeing the landing of a lunar module. It was mentally exhausting, every single day.

    Also, as a relative social measure, back in the eighties, journalists had relatively clean noses and journalism as a whole carried a qualified measure of respect. They did the work, and cared about journalism.

    I’m willing to go out on a limb and assume that the integrity of polls have followed suit with the meltdown of journalism, and poll takers these days are not held under anywhere near the scrutiny under which I was held, making polls a political tool, rather than an informational guidepost. I can’t imagine a work environment in this era, in which a low-paid worker was two shitty questions away from losing his job. It’s an impossible business model.

    So, leaving aside “shy Trump voters,” the incompetent, or even manipulative pollsters aren’t/can’t be given enough credit for the crap results. But the should get most of the credit, imo.

    • Thanks: Rob McX, PiltdownMan
  188. 2020 – Donald Trump Sr.
    2024 – Donald Trump Jr.
    2028 – Donald Trump Jr.
    2032 – Tucker Carlson
    2036 – Tucker Carlson
    2040 – Barron Trump
    2044 – Barron Trump

  189. Lot says:
    @Anonymous

    I made good money betting on Trump in both the primaries and general. Documented in my comment history here, if you search my comments for predictit.

    However, I switched my bet from Trump wins general to Trump wins NC and GA toward the end. The odds were not as good on those safer bets, about 50/50 rather than 25/75, so I missed out a bit.

    This time I think Trump will outperform his polls again by about the same 2-3 points. Which means, Biden landslide. I hope I am wrong it should go without saying.

  190. Trump loses the election, but the electoral college vote is much closer than predicted. Trump wins Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and maybe Iowa, but he loses New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona and Nevada.

    Not that it matters to the result of the election, but Biden is currently holding a 7.8-point advantage in the RCP national poll of polls. My guess is that Biden’s popular vote win will be less than five points.

    BTW, we will know early if the polls favoring Biden are biased because of shy Trump voters. If Georgia and North Carolina are genuinely competitive and can’t be called early, then Trump’s goose is cooked even if he does win Florida. I’m of the opinion that all this Democratic talk about Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas being swing states is malarky, but we’ll know for sure on election day.

    • Replies: @anonymous
  191. Xeno says:

    Rumor has it that Biden is cancelling his plans for his 14-stop rallies in Texas today. Too many Trump supporters are showing up at the rallies, and heckling him from outside the gates.

    I wonder how the heck so many Trump supporters can show up at every single stop to be enough of a pain in Biden’s ass to make him give it up?

    • Replies: @theo the kraut
  192. Corvinus says:
    @Dave Pinsen

    “1) With voting by mail having started over a month ago, why should decisive numbers of ballots come in after Election Day?”

    So long as they are post marked prior to Election Day and are properly filled out, that is what matters.

    This is patently troubling for voters regardless of party.

    Now, for those who believe in states rights, many states require that a ballot be received by Nov. 3. That is THEIR rule. Great! However, 21 states and Washington, D.C., will count ballots that arrive after Nov. 3, with deadlines varying. That is what the citizens there prefer.

    “I put my ballot in a ballot box on September 28th. I would think most rabid Trump opponents have similarly also voted”.

    As have millions of Americans, Democrat and Republican.

    “2) Are we to believe that the lower conscientiousness/IQ Democratic base held onto the ballots they received at the end of September without losing them, only to fill them out correctly and deposit them on or just before Election Day?”

    You are making a large assumption here.

    “That’s not what Trump said, and that’s not what I believe; on the contrary, it’s been the mainstream media that’s suggested a Trump win would be evidence of fraud.”

    August 17, 2020–“We have to win the election. We can’t play games. Go out and vote. Do those beautiful absentee ballots, or just make sure your vote gets counted. Make sure because the only way we’re going to lose this election is if the election is rigged,” Trump told the group of supporters at the outdoor campaign event. “Remember that. It’s the only way we’re going to lose this election, so we have to be very careful. The only way they’re going to win is that way. And we can’t let that happen,” Trump said just hours before Democrats are set to begin their 2020 convention to formally nominate Joe Biden as the party’s presidential candidate.

    “Trump has said he would accept the results of him losing the election if the election were fair, not that him losing would necessarily be evidence of fraud”.

    No. He already believes the election is other than fair if he loses. If he wins, it was fair. Can’t have it both ways.

    “The biggest problem we have is if they cheat with the ballots. That’s my biggest problem,” he told supporters at the Phoenix Goodyear Airport this week. “That’s my only thing — that’s the only thing I worry about.”

    “IIRC, the heuristic is that fraud can account for only about 1.5% of the vote somewhere before it becomes too obvious.”

    Assuming that there is this fraud being committed on a widespread basis. If the president loses, “I think it will be complete voter fraud,” Tammy Byler, 54, an operations manager in Waddell, Arizona, said. “There’s so much voter fraud happening”.

  193. Marty says:
    @Mike Thomas

    I once saw a guy in a restaurant parking lot, a plumber I think, whose t-shirt on the back read “this is your brain on drugs” over a Dodgers cap. I thought I’d be able to locate one for myself but never did. I should have stopped him.

  194. All of Germany is convulsing within the most rabid case of DTS to be found upon planet mirth, and one of my most important golden rules being : Whatever the lunatic Krauts favor is fatal for mankind and expecially for the US.

    The deranged Krauts still worship BO with a religious fervancy and they have elevated MO to sainthood and are praying for her installation into the OO, and the end of the nation.
    AJM

    DT 2020

  195. Lot says:
    @AnotherDad

    “ But if what–i understand–you are saying above is true–that there’s a 3o%! arbitrage opportunity–how come you haven’t shorted every damn contract until you’re driven the market back to equilibrium?”

    Who says I am not?

    There are position limits on PredictIt, so my ability is limited.

    It isn’t 30% profit, because PI 1099’s you to the IRS on your profits, and I am fortunately/unfortunately in a 45% or so bracket. There’s also the time involved, and to get the full 30%, you have to use limit orders that might not get filled. Finally, there’s a net 3% withdrawal fee (5%, but you can deposit with a 2% cash back card).

    Still, the annualized risk free return can be huge. It just takes time to enter the orders. Maybe 20 minutes of my time to make a risk free after tax and fees $50.

    Not bad at all, $150/hr. But it is tedious, and all speculation and gambling is vaguely déclassé. I hope before too long to be a gentlemen living on rents, interests, and dividends, and not seek trading profits.

    If you find markets fun and have $5,000 sitting around in the bank, the best thing on PredictIt is probably a low but not zero risk bet like “Biden wins Virginia” at 91, (or Oregon at 94).

    That 10% gain in about 2 weeks when it closes is a lot less work than completely risk free bets.

  196. @JohnnyWalker123

    Geez Johnny, relax.

    AnotherMom and I haven’t voted yet.

    • Replies: @Rob McX
  197. JimB says:
    @Frank G

    Biden has a heart attack between Election Day and Inauguration Day.

    Ol’ Joe will die from a embolism following a priapism caused by Viagra abuse

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  198. Thomas says:
    @Known Fact

    Bigger, better selected samples, focus groups, tracking the same selected samples of voters over time (sort of like a cross between a focus group and a poll), modeling past turnout among particular voters and precincts, modeling other variables that correlate with voting, just to name a few things they do.

    Accurate polling and election forecasting is expensive and takes time. Think of it as equivalent to a business’ marketing research efforts. (The companies that do polling usually also do market research the rest of the time.) The campaigns will spend a lot on it and expect their money’s worth. The polling that is sold to the media isn’t and doesn’t need to be of similar quality or robustness. The media will buy it anyways.

  199. Rob McX says:
    @Anonymous

    I agree with everything you write with the proviso that the “uneducated” whites have also never given serious thought to what is civilization, how is it created, maintained, etc.

    But people are inclined to hold educated people to higher standards. You’d expect them to have a better understanding, based on historical precedent, of how nations and civilisations are destroyed, and to recognise this destruction when they see it happening.

  200. Roger says:

    The expert opinion and data are overwhelmingly in favor of a Biden landslide.

    This not 2016. Then, the experts did not look carefully at the swing states. There were undecided voters.

    This time, Biden has a bigger margin than H. Clinton had, and is favored to win most of those swing states.

    If Biden does not win by a landslide, it is hard to see how experts would be trusted ever again.

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
  201. Rob McX says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    There seems to be an inverse relation between an actor’s support for guns and the amount of people he shoots on screen. Clint Eastwood and Sylvester Stallone are also keen on gun control.

    • Replies: @Jack Armstrong
  202. I’m afraid Trump will lose.

    Start with the 2016 results. Trump did lose the popular vote. I know, voter fraud, but I doubt there was enough of that to account for the entire margin. He won Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by margins ranging from 0.2% to 1.2%. If he loses any three of these–or two, if one is Florida–and doesn’t pick up any others to make up for it, he loses the election. So not much has to go wrong, and there’s a lot that can.

    Voters from 2016 who have died were mostly seniors, who tended to support Trump. New voters are mostly young. Yeah, I’ve read that new Republican registrations are up, but “registered Republican” and “Trump voter” are not necessarily the same thing.

    Demographic changes in the last four years don’t favor Trump.

    Those who were registered to vote in both 2016 and 2020 can be divided into four groups:

    1. Voted for Trump. Trump will lose votes from this group. Many of them are disappointed in him for one reason or another (look how many commenters on this site consider him just another Deep State Zionist). They won’t vote for Biden–most of them will hold their noses and vote for Trump–but some will just sit it out.

    2. Preferred Trump but didn’t vote. Not enough of these to matter.

    3. Preferred Clinton but didn’t vote. This is where a lot of Biden votes (more accurately, anti-Trump votes–Biden’s just a figurehead) will come from. I’m convinced that a great many Clinton supporters were so smugly convinced that she had it in the bag, they didn’t take the trouble to vote. That won’t happen again.

    4. Voted for Clinton. Can Trump gain enough votes from this group to make up for the losses elsewhere? I don’t see it. I know quite a few people who voted against him last time, and not one of them has said “You know, he’s not so bad after all.” And it’s not like they’d be afraid to say it to me; they know where I stand.

    If anyone can poke holes in this analysis, please do. I’d much rather be wrong on this.

  203. indocon says:

    I predict an exact opposite of 2000, the incumbent party candidate wins after series of court cases, Senate ends up at 50:50. Mass unrest continues in select cities with large white population like SFO/PDX/SEA but does not spread elsewhere. Come spring time, either Mitt Romney or Lisa Murkowski jump ship and hand control Senate to the Democrats, similar to what Jim Jeffords did in 2001. Next fall, the economic equivalent of 911 hits, interest rates start a sharp and relentless climb crushing the whole economy.

  204. I’m not sure if Democrats are engaged in gas lighting, or as I suspect, are simply lying to themselves, but one keeps coming across the idea that the polls show a bigger lead for Biden than they did last time for Hillary. That doesn’t jibe with my recollection. For example, the consensus view in the final week of the last election, was that Hillary was leading by eight points in Pennsylvania. And yet she still lost.

    The main polling agencies have not done very much to change their methodology since then. People get fired for Tweeting in support of Trump, so obviously a lot of people are reluctant to admit to pollsters that they endorse Estoreric Trumpetry.

    I got 48 out of 50 states correct last time (I was wrong about New Hampshire and Wisconsin).

    I tend to suspect Trump will carry every state he got last time, plus Nevada and Minnesota. New Mexico and New Hampshire are very close, but may lean to Biden. If Trump has a very good night, Virginia will be in play.

  205. @AndrewR

    “You’re full of shit!” Too bad that UAW dude didn’t take Sleepy out back in March.

  206. Wilkey says:
    @Corvinus

    Once upon a time, we elbowed our way onto and into this continent by giving small pox infected blankets to native Americans.

    Never happened, but cool story, bro.

    But Paul Harvey certainly was right about civilized nations guilting themselves into oblivion.

    • Agree: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Corvinus
  207. Prediction:

    On election night, Trump will have an electoral college advantage based on a narrow popular advantage in several swing states. The Dems, Media, Universities, NGOs, Deep State and other usual suspects will all go into immediate and simultaneous overdrive screaming that “It’s not over until every vote is counted!” Which of course means that now that they know how many ballots they have to “find”, they are setting about “finding” them.

    What happens next will depend on 1) how good the GOP is at preventing Dem vote fraud [history says: lousy], 2) how good the Dems are at frauding votes [history says: good enough to do it in their sleep], and 3) whether Trump buckles and concedes to the fraud tsunami. If he does, then it’s curtains. If he doesn’t, then BLM/Antifa go off leash targeting polling stations, gov’t and GOP offices, with the usual massive indiscriminate collateral damage/looting, culminating in the Dems demanding the Joint Chiefs intervene to “restore our democracy” [i.e., get rid of Trump].

    Then things will get interesting.

  208. Polls showing Biden winning are this year’s russian meddling scam. Dems know Trump will win; that’s why they put losers on the ticket. The real race is for control of the Senate.

  209. Anonymous[299] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr. Anon

    Matt Gaetz is an unmarried man who adopted a teenager – I don’t know if there is anything weird there, but it sure looks weird.

    Even weirder is that 5 years ago, when he was a Florida state representative, he broke with his own party the GOP to sponsor an amendment with the Democrats to repeal Florida’s ban on gay adoptions. He even persuaded his father, who was a Florida state senator, to support the repeal.

  210. The easiest prediction: the American citizenry will continue to lose.

    In the (D) v (R) false-dichotomy theatrics for ‘shotgun’ in the Clown Car – meh. Probably Trump.

    It doesn’t matter though: the ciphers that the citizenry get to vote for, are not the people who run the country. That’s true everywhere in the world, but it’s most obvious in the US.

  211. @Rob McX

    Either way, it will be Hilary in 2024 running against one of W’s nephews.

    • Replies: @Rob McX
  212. anonymous[185] • Disclaimer says:
    @Johnny Smoggins

    Remember that Washington was supposed to have been under an OWS like siege for a month now and that was called off due to lack of interest.

    Yes, the “50 days of rage at the White House,” which was billed as the mother of all Antifa/BLM protests/riots/whatever was quickly memory-holed back in September. But it was not for lack of interest. It was right when Don Lemon and Chris Cuomo announced on air that further rioting was bad for Dems, and lo and behold, the funding was pulled.

  213. In March I predicted the election would be a referendum on how well the voters think Trump handled Coronavirus.

    At this point 57% of the voters think he mishandled Coronavirus.

    Out of consistency, I will predict a Biden win.

    Shouldn’t have listened to Javanka.

    • Replies: @GeneralRipper
  214. @Rob McX

    The John Lennon factor … celebs get stalked by nuts. Nuts with guns is a worry for them.

  215. Sorry to keep you waiting. Complicated business.

  216. fish says:
    @Seneca44

    Biden wins in close election, but is unlikely to survive until January 20, 2021.

    Poetic justice I suppose. The only sad thing is that once they pull his meds after the election he won’t that he’s been deposed.

  217. botazefa says:

    All signs other than poll aggregation point to a Trump victory. No new wars. Good economy. People feel they are doing better now than four years ago. Trump’s negative polling isn’t too bad (mid 40s).

    We’re looking at record voter turnout thanks to Trump. That is a good thing for Democracy, and he should be credited.

    The only thing I worry about is localities in swing states issuing emergency lockdown orders due to coronavirus. I think they are likely to do that on Monday.

  218. anonymous[185] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pincher Martin

    Trump loses the election, but the electoral college vote is much closer than predicted. Trump wins Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and maybe Iowa, but he loses New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona and Nevada.

    This scenario results in an electoral college tie, no?

  219. BB753 says:

    Trump will win the electoral vote. Then all bets are off!

  220. Excal says:

    I predict Trump takes it, by a close-to-decent margin. Probably not by enough to get the lawsuits thrown out of court, and certainly not enough to keep the professional rioters off the street, but he will win in the end.

    Everyone keeps talking about how the polls can’t be that far wrong, that if they are it will damage the polling industry permanently, etc. etc. I heard exactly this sort of talk in 2016, I heard it for Brexit, I heard it again for Boris, and I’m hearing it again this year. The polling agencies haven’t been right about much of anything in ages, but for some reason, people keep buying their product. And if the product is selling, why should they change it?

    If I’m the Trump campaign, this is exactly how I want things. If Trump can point to the polls and say he’s down just two-to-three points, that gets people fired up and arsing themselves off the sofa just long enough to vote. The Tories used this tactic last year, and it worked almost too well for them.

    If I’m the Democrats, I am praying to Ss. Karl and Vladimir and Martin that the black vote sticks around, because that’s my entire strategy — that’s why I dumped Bernie, and everybody else, for Biden: because he’s the only one the blacks would accept. If even a few of the blacks leave me, I’m dead or close to it. And a few of the blacks are leaving — more than anyone wants to admit. And also quite a few of the Hispanics. And even more of the Cubans (although that’s not really news). I wouldn’t want to be a Democrat right now.

  221. fish says:
    @BaylessHound

    Jeb Bush: We need a national investment in broadband internet.

    Well he better switch parties because he will find even less support the next time as an (R). In fact you can probably just cross out anything that has any Bush Family association going forward.

    ……please clap….

  222. fish says:
    @Wilkey

    Republican governor. Board appointed 100% by Republican governor. News site owned 100% by “conservative” Mormon Church whose members are, in fact, overwhelmingly conservative. All of them advocating for the most toxic anti-white racist nonsense around. These are our “conservative” leaders.

    You act surprised…..from the faith that inflicted Mittens Cucksworthy III upon the land!?

    • Replies: @Wilkey
  223. TTSSYF says:
    @Warner

    I wasn’t confident Trump would win in 2016, but I wasn’t shocked by it, as some people were.

    I think the only outcome for 2020 that isn’t possible is Biden winning by a landslide. Trump in a landslide, Trump eking it out, or Biden eking it out — those are the only possible outcomes. I’m praying for Trump in a landslide, but I’ll take a slim win. He deserves another term, if only because of the harassment — much of it illegal — he has had to endure for the past four years.

    • Agree: S. Anonyia
  224. Polistra says:
    @The Alarmist

    We need a button for “thanks, but no thanks,” if you know what I mean.

  225. Trump is going to win. However, there will be violence afterwards because Dems have brainwashed everyone into thinking Biden is up big, which he isn’t. They’ve learned nothing in 4 years. Trump voters are like Fight Club members.

    So Dems will not think the pollsters suck, they’ll think they wuz robbed, and mayhem ensues.

    British and Irish bookies have Biden as the 2-1 favorite. They’ve also learned nothing. One of the best side stories of 2016 was how Trump destroyed the British retail gambler. No wonder they hate him!

  226. So, Who Is Going to Win?

    Whoever wins Pennsylvania.

  227. Polistra says:
    @TTSSYF

    You don’t know too many Democrats, do you.

    I’m jealous.

  228. Dave Pinsen says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    Biden bettors think their candidate is going to win in a landslide. That’s not consistent with Trump being up big on Tuesday night. The election should be decided Tuesday night either way.

  229. Just got confirmation from the Beijing embassy that my absentee ballot (Wisconsin) was processed. I’m proud to have voted for Joe!

  230. First I was confident for Trump. Then fairly certain Biden had it in the bag. Now I’m unsure. Don’t think the winner, whoever it is, will crack 300 EV though.

  231. Corvinus says:

    And there are a number of Trump supporters who Aldo believe he will handily beat Biden, with the belief it will be over on Election night.

    I think there will be uncertainty in a couple of states.

  232. Here’s a terrible thought:

    Trump wins bigly in the EC with record black and Hispanic support. From this, he concludes that the Kushner faction has been right all along and dumps Miller and any other right-leaning anti-immigrationists, supports general amnesty and promotes increasing numbers of immigrants from South America.

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
  233. Polistra says:
    @Rob McX

    However, our two-party political system is broken. Look at their last candidate: Hillary! Her negatives were even worse than Biden’s. Look at the Republican candidates. Not much better, if any.

    Our system is arranged to prevent good, patriotic candidates from prevailing, much less rising to the top. Trump was a fluke and through his ignorant stupidity he wasted the closest chance this country has had in a generation to recover anything like its former greatness.

  234. Corvinus says:
    @Wilkey

    Of course it happened that way. You just don’t want to believe it.

    • Replies: @Excal
  235. Norvak says:

    Popular vote trump 52%, Biden 44%, 2% others.

  236. Anonymous[210] • Disclaimer says:

    As an anonymous forecaster, I think the election will be close.

    – Harris-Biden will narrowly edge Trump in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and– here’s your added-value Sophisticated Wild-Ass Guess — N. Carolina (where Sen. Tillis will surprisingly-not-a-surprise take an L). It’s possible they’d win the other toss-ups but with those 4, it doesn’t matter. Very interested about the Texas and Georgia results but I find this meme of Harris-Biden winning either a bit overripe. In other words I expect the pollsters to be completely humiliated again, if they were still capable of that. Smart-set liberals and their suburban multicultural flock will drop the subject instantly, huddle together closer in their Floyd-COVID hybrid religion.

    – First 100 days of Harris-Biden will be rough. GOP will commence ignoring lame-duck Trump right away & try to obstruct more money-printer handouts to whomever.
    – If the Democrats get the U.S. Senate, I have no effing clue, but if so they’ll try to add 3 justices to SCOTUS because rich Wall Street/FAANG/gay donor base demands it.
    – Antitrust suits and Middle East wind-down will slip off the front pages, credentialed liberal commentators don’t have interest in those unless they can hang it on a GOP villain.
    – Rioting will continue to be a problem, but more in the pasty-white Portland/Seattle locales than People of Poor-Blackness terrain. There will not be a shoplifting renaissance in luxury stores on 5th Avenue in 2021.
    – Nothing happens to Hunter Biden, although the FBI money-laundering investigation will be kept in the hopper.

    – Massive layoffs in hard-news, entertainment, and sports media. Bankruptcies and mergers in Hollywood, basically what happened to the recording industry in the Napster/Google ’00s. Movies that were supposed to be released in summer 2020 will be sold at a loss to Netflix or Bezos.

    – Biden will make it to the 2024 primary season, which is not what I predicted before. I guess I don’t want to bother speculating on anything past next year, but the open secret about Kamala Harris is that she’s not popular, no one respects her, and she wouldn’t be anywhere without claiming to be Black. However, she will wield a lot of clout because the Wall Street/FAANG/gays don’t trust Joe in addition to not respecting him.

    – Trump will be commenting continuously and then re-emerge as a Glenn Beck/Alex Jones kind of gadfly figure next summer. But he is too undisciplined to either build that alternative power center or run again. The notion that any of his children will be anything more than obscure by this time next year is laughable.

    – COVID cases won’t spike this winter, as predicted. Experts and our betters will continue to exploit it as cover for whatever schemes they hatch. It’s the new Patriot Act. Notice how the liberals are now pooh-poohing the vaccine? Trump’s presidency revealed this country was feebler than even the harshest “American Factory” critiques held out

  237. I think Trump will win, but regardless, I have bought a bottle of wine that I am planning to drink as I watch the results roll in. If we lose, it will hurt less, and if we win, I’ll already be celebrating.

    Hell, I’ll probably be asleep quite early on. Find out in the morning with the smell of burning cities and a horrible, pounding headache.

    • Replies: @GeneralRipper
  238. @Roger

    I think Biden can only win if he gets either North Carolina or Georgia (former more likely than the latter) plus most of the Rust Belt. If he does win, it will be a narrow EV victory. And surprising because it will be the first election in decades that the winner didn’t need Florida or Ohio. The idea of Trump losing Florida is laughable. I guess it is possible CNAs are filling out ballots for all of the demented nursing home residents, but Trump seems to be more popular in Florida right now than any Republican in my lifetime. Which kind of proves he isn’t a traditional Republican, because Florida isn’t that conservative.

  239. @PhysicistDave

    Kayleigh — don’t underestimate her because she is beautiful; she actually is smart

    She is beautiful compared to her two predecessors, but isn’t generally speaking. Plus, she has no boobies.

  240. Richard B says:
    @RichardTaylor

    The good news is moderates will lose.

    We’ll see. And sooner than later.

    Anti-Whites will get more zealous. They will double and triple down in the future.

    Yep! From the looks of things, no end in sight.

    White populism will be more open, more strident.

    Not so sure about that one. But, the thought does have its charms. Again, we’ll see. Unfortunately, there’s almost no end in sight to White Masochism. In fact, we’re all familiar with the Anarcho-Tyranny, but I think that if things don’t change soon and more in the direction suggested by your comment, society, at least as far as race is conerned, will grow more and more Sado-Masochistic.

    The other possibility, or probability, is that society will look more and more like a Prison Yard where everything is about race. Long term, that’d be curtains for blacks and good for Whites. Can’t think of any racial moderates in the prison system, except maybe in movies.

    It was the moderates who facilitated anti-White policies.

    True. But the Right and those Whites who lean fascist or NS, didn’t help, seeing as they seemed to fall for every trap set for them. But that shouldn’t come as a surprise. Those ideas failed miserably in the 20th century. They won’t work at all in the 21st.

    You can be pro-White and anti-ideological. In fact, to the extent Whites have a future, we might see more and more of that. Since not a few Whites have had enough of both the Right and the Left.

    As long as White people get on their own side and dump the race-traitors, we have a bright future.

    Again, another thought that warms the heart. But we’ve already got our hands full trying to live in the present, and we’re not doing too well. So, first things first.

  241. @anonymous

    Depends on Maine.

    If Biden wins all 4 EC Maine votes, he gets 270.
    If Trump wins the Maine 2nd, it is a tie.

  242. @Spud Boy

    [Scott Adams] predicts Trump will win, based on enthusiasm and higher % of black support than is typical for Republicans.

    Without referring to it by name, he also feels there will be a Bradley Effect that is skewing the polling, except he also thinks Trump supporters are trolling the pollsters.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  243. @Known Fact

    internal polling….how do they do it

    They do it by _validating_ their samples against known facts.

    Examples:
    –A known fact is what percentage Trump and Hillary had in given states in 2016.
    –A known fact (in many states) is the registration of received mail in votes or early votes compared to what voters said they would do (mail in, early vote, or vote in person).

    Then they can make sure their samples _match_ the known facts that a true sample would give them.

    The mass media polls do not do this, and that is one reason they are garbage.

    Even with the validation techniques, there still is no good way of determining who will actually vote on election day.

  244. @Moral Stone

    As if crazy co-workers aren’t enough, I just got an email from my mother who says her elderly Iranian immigrant friend is voting for “Kamala Harris” because she’s young. Also, I suspect, because she’s a “she”.

    Makes voter suppression sound like a good idea.

  245. Richard B says:
    @Mike Thomas

    There’s a lot here worth responding to. For now I’ll just say, thank you for an interesting, thought-provoking comment.

    For me personally, a working class / rural populist uprising is not what I’m looking for.

    What I really want is for other college-educated metropolitan professionals to just stop being so unbelievably brainwashed about race and gender.

    What I’d like to see is an alliance between both groups. And not just both, since Whites are more than just those two groups.

    If history’s shown us anything it’s that there are times when any answer other than “Yes” is unimaginable. And then people start saying “No!”

    Now that more and more Whites are finding themselves between the sword and the wall, it’s possible that they’ll start saying “No!”, or better, “Enough!” It very well may be.

    • Replies: @Mike Thomas
  246. Polistra says:
    @Stan Adams

    By a fair margin, your points are more rational than the average voter…

  247. Anonymous[210] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Alarmist

    The problem with this scenario is that the House picks the President in per-state delegations, not by caucus. The (D) over-under seems to be 22 states.

    It’s not impossible for Congress to elect a different Vice President. Since this will also be the final election by strict Electoral College (pending NPVIC) I’d be kind of amazed if they just installed, I dunno, Lisa Murkowski as veep.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
  248. Cato says:
    @Harry Baldwin

    Whatever the polling industry is at this point, it’s not an industry dedicated to presenting an accurate snapshot of the political landscape, any more than the news industry is dedicated to presenting a fair and balanced account of important issues.

    I’m not sure about that. Pollsters have an enormous incentive to predict accurately. The MSM can say whatever they want, and they own the fact-checkers. So the incentives are different.

    The problem for the pollsters is that the narrative generated by the MSM makes respondents shy. Since Trump is Truly Hitler, and only a Nazi (note: in caps, just like “Blacks”) could support him, the respondents mumble something about “change” and “compassion” and look away from the feelings they will have in the line-up to the voting booth.

  249. @JimB

    Ol’ Joe will die from a embolism following a priapism caused by Viagra abuse

    And will be eulogized by Bob Dole and James L Buckley, who are two decades older, served with and were senior to him in the Senate, and are still going strong.

  250. Excal says:
    @Corvinus

    (Just in case you’re serious, and for those who don’t know ..)

    The Blanket Solution appears to have been tried exactly once, using two blankets. Most historians agree that it didn’t work. It certainly didn’t do much to those particular Indians.

    Of the armies of racist Europeans in hazmat gear advancing on peace-loving, unsuspecting Indians, waving before them blankets soaked in smallpox instead of weapons, evidence remains elusive.

    Sources:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Fort_Pitt#Biological_warfare

    https://www.history.com/news/colonists-native-americans-smallpox-blankets

    • Replies: @fish
    , @Corvinus
  251. @personfellowindividual

    I’ll be drinking grain alcohol and rainwater all night.

    Watching the Leftist faggots melt down again, is something that should not be missed.

    • Replies: @bruce county
  252. Excal says:
    @Wilkey

    The mainstream Mormons, Lord love them, will crumple like wet cardboard. Unlike Catholics, they lack an unalterable Deposit of Faith, so they can modify their teaching to suit when it suits. They have done this before, most famously with polygamy, and their attitude towards Africans. I have no doubt they will do it again.

    • Replies: @Wilkey
  253. @anonymous

    270 to 268 in favor of Biden.

    But given the HoR, Biden will win any ties if one of Maine’s EVs goes for Trump.

  254. @ScarletNumber

    …he also thinks Trump supporters are trolling the pollsters.

    You mean the 2% of them who are even answering the phones? They always tell you the number they spoke to, never the number they tried to speak to.

    Like the electoral and “popular” votes in 2016, the polls are quite clear this time, as are the other traditional indicators. They are clear, but clearly disagree. Republicans are still behind in registered voters, but much less so than in past elections they have prevailed in.

  255. JimDandy says:
    @Mike1

    There are far worse outcomes.

  256. Personally, I don’t like trying to predict the future because I don’t like being wrong

    Sigh, you’re being such a wuss.

    Anyway, my prediction is that Biden wins. The Republicans don’t have the good fortune of running against Hillary Clinton again. However, I don’t necessarily predict he will become president come January 20.

    I also predict that the Senate will be at least 50-50 Democratic, and the Supreme Court will be at 11 by the time the new session of the Supreme Court starts on October 4.

  257. Wilkey says:
    @Excal

    A local news station just reported the latest poll results for Utah: Trump 51, Biden 44. We are talking about a state where Republican presidential candidates typically win 65-70% of the vote. Trump only got about 45% four years ago, but that was with Egg McMuffin getting about 22% as a protest vote.

    Either the polls are way off, or Utah has made a dramatic (hopefully just temporary) political turn.

    The Mormon Church would be crazy to move left (any more than it already has). It never works. Churches that move left always lose members. Always.

    • Replies: @Eric Novak
    , @Excal
  258. @TontoBubbaGoldstein

    That’s what I thought. I’d read a story about it, but forgot the details When I did a search on South Carolina, all that came up was Harrison; nothing about Bledsoe. Naturally I thought I had the wrong state.

    I wonder if this was deliberate.

  259. V. Hickel says:
    @Corvinus

    its because the fraud is overwhelmingly on the democratic side. For example the thousands of aliens who vote every year.

    • Agree: GeneralRipper
    • Replies: @Corvinus
  260. @Anonymous

    2018 was a test run for the Dems to figure out how to flip Repube House seats that had been won by continuing the vote counts for days after the Election Day. Everyone is focused on the impact of vote fraud on the Presidential election and the EC, but very few are figuring there might be a significant change in the balance of power in state delegations in the House arising from vote fraud.

  261. Hibernian says:
    @Alden

    November 1 is All Saints Day. The 2nd is All Souls Day.

    • Thanks: Alden
  262. Rob McX says:
    @AnotherDad

    Vote as early and as often as you can get away with.

  263. SFG says:

    Man, take a day off and the board blows up.

    With decreasing order of confidence:

    I predict a Biden victory. No, I’m not looking forward to it, but that’s what I think *will* happen.

    I voted Trump, but I am predicting Biden will win, because Trump f***ed up this virus thing big-time. Wear a f***ing mask, DJT. Stop messing with the CDC. Shut down the country and pay people to stay home, then rev up test-and-trace. Pandemics are one of the few things Big Government is actually good for.

    I further predict the Democrats will try to pack the court and impose various woke things by federal mandate, with about a 33% success rate that nonetheless pushes the culture several steps to the left. Immigration will be increased, with a white minority probably occurring several years earlier than otherwise. However, Trump will pull a surprising number of Hispanics (perhaps 35% or so), and we will continue to see a rightward drift by Nick Fuentes types, so whether they will be able to turn this country into Brazil remains to be seen.

    Oh, and the stock market goes down as a bunch of people sell their stocks to lock in the last year of low capital gains taxes, then up as the market prices in the decreased volatility.

    After the election:

    The GOP drops enough protectionism into their platform to keep the white working class on board but avoids doing anything about immigration or walking away from tax cuts, because donors still control both parties.

    Lindsey Graham comes out of the closet and nobody cares. Nancy Pelosi retires after audio emerges of her referring to someone as ‘light in the loafers’ in 1962 and is replaced by Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, leading to the GOP retaking the House in 2022.

    The Dems try to put DJT in jail, but can’t pin enough on him to succeed, and he drifts into a comfortable retirement on Fox News selling gold-plated MAGA hats and the like.

    Biden mouths a few platitudes and is an even better friend to Israel than DJT was, but no major new wars. The country’s pretty sick of them. He steps down after one term or possibly less due to increasingly hard-to-hide senility…sorry, be an ally to a strong black woman. Harris runs in 2024 and loses.

    We all get doxxed as Unz is revealed as a Deep State honeypot and lose our jobs (those of us with jobs to lose). My colleagues are very surprised, but the underlings are like, “Knew it!” I am approached by someone claiming to be a right-wing Jewish woman looking for someone to help produce a bundle of baby Stephen Millers to drag the tribe right, but decline it as spam.

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
  264. Cato says:
    @Kronos

    Trump was not able to get top-drawer talent to work for him. The people he got, whom he could have molded, were not treated with respect and left as soon as they could. No one really wants a boss whose favorite line is, “You’re fired!”

    The best that can be said about Trump (and it is high praise indeed) is that he did not start any new wars. For that alone, I voted for him.

    • Replies: @Kronos
    , @cityview
  265. Hibernian says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Note the sharp changes when the Dem candidate is Southern or Border State; this persists into the 1990s with Clinton.

  266. The winner will be Biden, who is not senile despite the claims of some. He wins big in EC and popular vote. This is a tragedy, because Trump could have won if he acted serious and smart, but instead he chose to operate like an inflammatory talk radio guy.

  267. I think Trump wins every state he won in 2016 except for one or two of the upper midwest states of WI, MI, PA. So, I am predicting a narrow Trump victory. Just watch Florida’s returns on election night- you will be able to determine what is going to happen by that state alone, I think. If Biden wins Florida, you can go to bed- the election is over. If Trump wins Florida, then watch the margin- all the other states will move similarly to Florida- if Trump wins by a bigger margin, he is likely to win all the states he won the last time. If Trump wins Florida by a smaller margin, then he is likely to lose narrowly in the electoral college.

    This, by the way, is how I knew Bush had won in 2004 and Obama had won in 2012- I simply watched Florida both times on election night- the incumbent generally wins the state by a larger margin than he did the first time, or in Obama’s case just wins it. In short, Democrats winning Florida is a sure sign they win the election, but they don’t need it. Biden doesn’t need to win Florida, but he does need WI, MI, and PA, so I think he needs to do better in Florida than Clinton did.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  268. @SFG

    I’ve been trying to say this.

    Simply put: most of the white, coastal, college-educated middle class who voted for Trump in 2016 are horrified by the maskless stuff. The faster people here realize that the mask-tyranny works because most people are simply not as investigative as you and love their parents and don’t want to see them die of influenza, the better.

    Trump energized the hell out of his low-IQ base by going “mask-off”. Those folks who go to rallies are simply not the “silent majority” or the “silent Trumper”. The former “silent Trumper” who is a white middle-manager with obese boomer parents who he relies on for child-care is justly miffed with this stuff. Because I was in the education-tech industrial complex (software development specifically) I know many such people. They live in gated communities with armed guards, so the Kenosha riots don’t bug them as much as the idea of their kids grandpa being killed by COVID. They are all voting Biden, as am I (for different reasons!).

    Now, you can come back to me with “taxes” — but again you underestimate how much the corporate world is chained to the federal government. Nothing in my field moved without the Department of Ed. making it rain on these companies so they can finance their research. These people know where the bread gets buttered.

    Never underestimate the contempt of the white middle class for other whites.

    • Troll: GeneralRipper
    • Replies: @bomag
  269. @GeneralRipper

    I’ll be drinking grain alcohol and rainwater all night.

    Do you have angels nearby?

  270. Boethiuss says:

    Best news of the last 6 months for Trump came today, imo. Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register released her final pre-election Iowa Poll, the gold standard for prognostication imo. Poll sez Trump +7 Ernst +4 (in Iowa).

    Extrapolate that to the rest of the country, and Trump still loses, but it’s a reasonably competitive loss, say 220-240 EVs for Trump.

  271. Boethiuss says:
    @jb

    I’ve reached the point where I seriously think it might have been better if Hillary had won. A Republican congress could have prevented her from getting much done, and instead of four years of Trump alienating the American public it would have been Hillary doing that. Who knows what the 2020 election would have looked like, and maybe the Republican establishment would have been able to hold the fort, but if the election today were Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley running against an unpopular do-nothing Clinton administration wouldn’t that be vastly better than what we are actually looking at?

    So what about the actually election? Will we be better off if Trump wins or loses? I absolutely don’t fucking know!!! At this point the only thing I really care about is the Senate.

    Yeah, this is exactly where I am.

    • Agree: Hibernian
  272. Polistra says:
    @Ian

    The answer to your last remark is that we’re all dead in the long run.

    Oh, one more thing:

    The good news is, the corruption issues revealed by the laptop aren’t going to go away, and what the media just did in burying this story is eventually going to be shown to many people to be partisan, intentionally dishonest, and a big blow to their credibility. The media will not ever again be able pull the card that they just pulled as they just did – it was a one time shot.

    None of that is true if the Dems win as I expect them to. Along with their wholly-owned ‘prestige media’ they are masters at manufacturing truth and erasing inconvenient facts.

  273. fish says:
    @Excal

    Forget it man…..it’s Corby.

    • Replies: @Excal
  274. Rob McX says:
    @Jack Armstrong

    God, I hope not. It’s strange how America is having older and older people run for election, while the politics these candidates espouse are getting more and more juvenile.

  275. Alden says:
    @Supply and Demand

    You don’t live here so you and your family won’t suffer the consequences of another Democrat administration.

  276. @Boethiuss

    Excellent analysis.

    I am the increasingly rare liberal immigration patriot.

    The rank and file of the Democratic Party abandoned us long ago, to get the megabucks from Silicon Valley donors and NY area FIRE companies that want their cheap H1-B visas, and other rich donors who want their cheap labor. Then then La Raza types who want more Latins to increase their power.

    As recently as 2015, about half the rank and file Democrats were immigration patriots, although none of the leaders were (Sanders was an immigration patriot until he decided to run for president. He is now a world class Hispanderer.).

    As quickly as 2017, the rank and file were about 3-1 open borders vs. the increasingly rare patriot. These days you can buy yard signs with the Woke Creed — “In This House we Believe…” which of course includes “No Human is Illegal”. Trust me, those are popular here in Madison.

    By this point I fear Trump’s division tactics, along with his general corruption and incompetence, have killed off immigration patriotism.

    I left the hard sciences, even with a PhD, because Asians took all the jobs. I went into programming. It has been years since I had anything other than a contract role, and I once lost a job to a cheaper H1-B. Trump has been far less terrible on the H1-B front than the Democrats, but Trump will lose and the country will be flooded with H1-Bs and before long no native born Americans will have any STEM jobs at all.

  277. Polistra says:
    @Hannah Katz

    With all the riots and Biden corruption overflowing, I will go out on a limb and predict that the GOP increases their numbers in the Senate to 55, while the big surprise is they flip the House with 225 seats, ousting Nanzi as Speaker..

    The riots are forgotten by everyone but us, and what’s more in most people’s minds they were 99.9% ‘peaceful protests’ anyway.

    Am I the only one here who ever gets outside the online alt-right bubble? The vast majority of people trust the so-called prestige media implicitly. I mean 100%, entirely without reservations.

    We make fun of the MSM here, and enjoy poking holes in their more obvious fabrications and distortions. But the MSM tells the masses that we are evil and so is anyone who even thinks of questioning their narratives.

    And they do this every bit as much with what people think of as “entertainment” as with “information”. People believe that the tiny amount of rioting was the work of right-wing provocateurs.

    The normies I know don’t know a thing about any Biden corruption story.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  278. @Yancey Ward

    Just watch Florida’s returns on election night- you will be able to determine what is going to happen by that state alone

    I agree with this comment.

    For apples to apples analysis, what you need to know is in 2016 Florida was won by Trump by 1.2%.

    If Trump improves on that number, he should be re-elected.

    If he cannot match it, he most likely will not be re-elected.

    • Replies: @Polistra
  279. Polistra says:
    @Cool Daddy Jimbo

    A few dozen people in each group you named. Heck, I read lavishly in the alternative media and I barely know (or care) about Rand Paul’s wife. You may be certain that 95% or more of the populace have no idea what you’re talking about, much less care.

  280. Democracy is now a horror. As described, two wolves and a sheep considering what’s for dinner.

    This democracy is now nothing but a racial/ethnic head count. And the racial/ethnic head count has manipulated for many decades. It’s all becoming very similar to Rhodesia and South Africa.

    There is no voting that will save European Americans. They are and will become a hated minority. See the videos of Africans chopping up wood work and furniture in Africa Addio for fires to cook food. That’s just years away in the US.

    An incredibly evil power has done this to the west. A group that has always been at war with European Christians.

  281. Polistra says:
    @Hamlet's Ghost

    Elaborate wishful thinking about your God-Emperor, with lots of literary rhetoric thrown in for good measure. Fun!

  282. Kronos says:
    @Cato

    I’d imagine it was a really tough set of circumstances. You likely had prestigious NeoCon and NeoLiberal think-tanks threatening good talent that they’ll get blackballed if they ever joined the Trump administration. Good people still joined up but many likely scuttled away.

    In an alternate universe I’d imagine the surprise victory of Bernie Sanders over low-energy Jeb Bush would’ve encountered the same problems. That the Clinton establishment would’ve heavily pressured him to appoint Larry Summers and other such NeoLiberal individuals.

  283. @Boethiuss

    You sound like the BBC on the eve of last year’s election on 12/12/19. Labour was up by 8%, until they were murdered on Election Day. Northern families that voted Labour for a century came out in droves-several million, in fact-to stab Labour in the heart and twist the knife around until Jeremy Corbyn coughed up blood and his eyes popped out of their sockets.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  284. @Anonymous

    Cut the psychobabble, man. Face it, you fucked up and voted for Kamela Harris, a woman who hates white people like yourself. Why are you proud of yourself for that?

    • Agree: 22pp22
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  285. @Wilkey

    Those aren’t Mormons voting left. They’re Mexicans. Census 2020 data will be a shock to no one but morons and those who have somehow remained unaffected by 21st Century diversity in the Whitetopias of SLC, Ogden, Provo, St. George, etc.

  286. Peterike says:
    @Huisache

    “ It was a choice between Mussolini and Chance the Gardener”

    Trump = Mussolini? How big of a jackass does someone have to be to say something that retarded?

  287. @Polistra

    The vast majority of people trust the so-called prestige media implicitly. I mean 100%, entirely without reservations.

    I hate fact-checkers.

    But, this is a no-brainer–the correct number is 40% trust the mass media:

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/321116/americans-remain-distrustful-mass-media.aspx

    • Replies: @Polistra
  288. Peterike says:
    @Corvinus

    “ Or, just as likely, the “I tell my friends I’m voting for Trump”, and then pull the handle for Biden.”

    That accounts for about six people.

    • Agree: Hibernian
    • Disagree: Corvinus, Supply and Demand
  289. Boethiuss says:
    @Eric Novak

    You sound like the BBC on the eve of last year’s election on 12/12/19. Labour was up by 8%, until they were murdered on Election Day. Northern families that voted Labour for a century came out in droves-several million, in fact-to stab Labour in the heart and twist the knife around until Jeremy Corbyn coughed up blood and his eyes popped out of their sockets.

    No no no, not on your life.

    The Tories were running well in front of Labour as soon as the election was called (and for a significant amount of time before that as well). This is a big reason why I’m not having the conspiracy theories around “The polls are crooked!”

    Even if, by some miracle, that actually happens to be true, it still doesn’t have to be that way. If we could have had a better candidate, we could do smart things and speak in a way that connects and bonds with most Americans. We could be running way ahead in the polls and run a normal campaign and win a normal reelection like we’re supposed to.

    Instead we’re hoping that Trump’s 4×4 caravan rallies really represents the mood of the voters and not the polls.

    • Replies: @Eric Novak
  290. Excal says:
    @fish

    I know, but I wanted to look it up for myself actually.

    I never expect to convince people like that of anything — it’s other people I’m more thinking of.

  291. Excal says:
    @Wilkey

    I don’t put much stock in those polls, of course, but I also don’t expect Mormons to be totally wild for Trump. They’re suspicious of him just as a lot of other conservative strait-laced populations are. But mostly, they’ll vote for him — they have no reason at all to trust the Democrats. No inside info, just my guess.

    There’s also demographics. Going by the numbers, Utah has shifted less than one might expect, but refugee-class Hispanics have been moving in like everywhere else, so that’s probably a factor.

    I agree about leftist churches. Socialism is designed to supplant religion, not augment it or coexist with it. It is a jealous god.

    Mormons are surprisingly similar to restorationist Protestants in many ways. These sorts of groups have a tendency to keep the faith until an old, enthusiastic cohort dies out. Then they start inching left to “stay relevant”. It’s even happening to the non-denominational Evangelicals, which I think not many people predicted — and yet here we are. Mormons may very well awaken one morning to find themselves leftist, and dying.

  292. @Xeno

    They’re showing the CCP prostitutes the love they deserve.

  293. @Boethiuss

    Yes, that’s right, Tories were ahead of Labour after the Tories and Boris won! Meta-polling had Corbyn up by 8% THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION. The exact same structural faults and intentional features of poll fraud in place in Britain are in place in the US.

    • Replies: @Boethiuss
  294. AnonAnon says:
    @Adam Grant

    I haven’t commented enough lately to be able to hit the AGREE button but consider it hit. You are either someone I follow on twitter or we follow a lot of the same people.

    I saw posts today/tonight that New Jersey might be in play. If it’s true, I bet the Philly riots have some part to play in it.

    I suspect suburban women with school age children are furious at what’s being done to their children’s education and emotional states. They also hate riots and looting. However, my fellow women are such low information lemmings I have a hard time predicting them.

    Trump supporters seem to be coming out of their shells lately and I think they sense blood in the water. Texans chasing the Biden tour bus around was hilarious. There was another big Beverly Hills rally today, along with one in Huntington Beach. I saw a post for a car parade in Riverside County but haven’t seen video of it yet. There are going to be freeway overpass rallies in Orange County in the coming days.

    I need to pick up some adult beverages to enjoy on election night. It’s going to be glorious.

    • Replies: @Marty
  295. Rob McX says:
    @Polistra

    The vast majority of people will tell you that they don’t trust the mass media, and within the next minute or two will quote the latest bit of nonsense they read or heard there as though it’s gospel truth.

    Put simply, most people trust the media without even knowing it.

    Good points. The issue of trust is a complex one. You end up having to believe some of what you see in MSM because there’s no other source for much of what happens. People unconsciously believe more than they think they do. I think it’s a matter of learning to interpret what you see, and to guess what spin the journalists are putting on the story.

  296. Polistra says:
    @Justvisiting

    1. The vast majority of people will tell you that they don’t trust the mass media, and within the next minute or two will quote the latest bit of nonsense they read or heard there as though it’s gospel truth.

    Put simply, most people trust the media without even knowing it.

    2. The 100% figure referred to implicitly not vast majority. It means that their trust is total, and despite themselves, as explained in #1.

    • Replies: @Rob McX
  297. Polistra says:
    @Justvisiting

    Winning Florida this year would be a tall order for Trump even if the state’s demographics hadn’t deteriorated in the past four years, and even if they hadn’t legalized felon voting. As it is, you tell me.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  298. @The Wild Geese Howard

    The Wild Geese Howard wrote to me:

    Don’t sleep on Governor Kristi Noem, who is campaigning as a surrogate for Trump and under heavy media assault for not locking down and pushing masks.

    Yeah, that was indeed a big oversight on my part: I was thinking in terms of DC, but Noem is indeed one of the more interesting new faces.

  299. @PhysicistDave

    My predictions for the fun of it:

    Collins, McSally, and Gardner lose in the Senate. The GOP picks up the seat in Alabama. Net result: the Senate is 51/49 for the GOP.

    The Dems lose a few seats in the House but end up still in control 228/207.

    Trump takes everything he took in 2016 EXCEPT WI and MI for a 280/260 win, but the Dems end up obviously stealing PA, and Trump loses in the courts. So Biden is inaugurated on 1/20/2021.

    Of course, the fun result is Trump takes everything as in 2016 EXCEPT WI, MI, and AZ. In which case, it is 269/269 and goes to the House where each state gets one vote. (Anyone remember the “corrupt bargain” of 1824?)

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  300. Boethiuss says:
    @Eric Novak

    Yes, that’s right, Tories were ahead of Labour after the Tories and Boris won! Meta-polling had Corbyn up by 8% THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION. The exact same structural faults and intentional features of poll fraud in place in Britain are in place in the US.

    No no no that’s completely wrong, and you’re going to have to cite something if you want to be at all clear.

    The Tories were leading Labour for the entire period of Boris Johnson as PM. There were a lot of ups and downs during that period based mostly based on the fate of Brexit, but the Tories were ahead the whole time. A lot of anti-Boris factions were trying to outmaneuver Boris without having a new election.

    As the election got closer the uncertainly was about if the Tories would get an outright majority in the Commons and if so by how much, which is very important in the UK because with a large majority the government is not at the mercy of a coalition with small parties or defectors in its own.

    I can absolutely promise guarantee you that there was no one in the BBC the day before the election talking about Corbyn beating the Tories by 10 points, just like there is no one at CBS talking about Trump beating Biden by 10 points. That’s just been completely off radar for months or years.

    • Agree: 22pp22
    • Replies: @Hibernian
  301. Hibernian says:
    @Boethiuss

    He may have been confusing Johnson vs. Corbyn with the Brexit referendum.

  302. @Richard B

    Thanks. Yes, white people just shouldn’t be quite so divided, at least on racial issues, and it’s the white liberals who are weird. Of course people will always disagree on other political issues.

    I also think white liberals are just naively following along with the heavily Jewish-influenced cultural elite narrative. Jews don’t consider themselves white, and they have very negative views of white people. When they use the word white, they’re not talking about a group they see themselves as belonging to, which is why they talk about white people in such a spiteful way. Of course not all Jews feel this way but it’s a common pattern and most white people are probably oblivious to it.

    I’m not even primarily mad at the Jews, they’re entitled to their feelings if they don’t like us. But non-Jewish white people don’t have to take it at face value! I think white liberals are just parroting Jewish sentiments even though they’re not Jewish!

    Now that more and more Whites are finding themselves between the sword and the wall, it’s possible that they’ll start saying “No!”, or better, “Enough!” It very well may be.

    Yes, I think it’s a general principle of human nature that external oppression increases within-group solidarity.

    I think it’s also the case that being individually ostracized from your own group is worse psychologically than being a member of an oppressed group.

    That’s the biggest source of stress for me personally that I was talking about. Not just not fitting in with my own people (college-educated white people) but even real fear of being considered a moral pariah (if I said what I really think, or got doxxed).

    White people becoming a minority, or losing power collectively relative to other groups, is not what really affects me. I’m not saying it’s a good thing, but it might have the good result (for me) that white people might get more solidarity and stop attacking each other and then I won’t have to feel so alienated from my own people.

    Then again, probably my main reason for feeling alienated is just that I’m just very different. Not in a bad way, I’m just much more of an intellectual type.

    I don’t say that to toot my horn, just saying that I’ve gone far out of my way to do a lot of reading and independent thinking, which is how I know about things like the race and intelligence issue and the Jewish Question, that even most educated people are completely in the dark about.

    I don’t mind being seen as quirky or eccentric, but my own people thinking I’m a bad person is a different story.

    • Thanks: Richard B, Cato
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    , @Richard B
    , @Cato
  303. Anonymous[324] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    It’s not psychobabble, it’s the result of decades of interacting with real people. I’m not proud of filling out a bubble, but I’m not ashamed of it either. I voted for Biden because I want my children to grow up to be winners. Both individually and as part of a wider group not enthralled by loser values. I noticed you didn’t dispute any of the points I raised. Am I wrong in my “psychobabble?” Or does it just not matter? We could spend years idolizing gansta rappers, and it would have no effect whatsoever on the proportion of kids who grow up to be ganstas?

  304. anon[147] • Disclaimer says:

    I know this is an old post, but I’m going to put my two cents in anyway.

    And I say that it’s basically a coin toss at this point. It’s going to come down to Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Michigan is one of the other four states people are watching, but my gut says Biden has it. Pennsylvania is too weird of a state for me to guess at, but it’s the one that matters the most.

    Minnesota is so reliably Democratic that it’s hard for me to think it’ll go for Trump. But on the other hand, watching the biggest city in your state get set on fire has to mobilize the rural types somewhat. Trouble is, I feel like they were already as mobilized as they could be back in 2016. Are there enough more of them to matter?

    Wisconsin had the Kenosha riot too, so there’s that. Wisconsin strikes me as being basically like Illinois, where outside Chicago and the college towns, it’s all Trump supporters. Just that, in Wisconsin, the cities aren’t quite as dominant.

    I wish it wasn’t so close. I want Trump to win, but not even just so much for Trump himself. If Biden wins, it means that all the media tactics will have worked. All the coddling of Biden and hiding of negative stories about him will have worked. Which means they’ll keep doing it. And that’s really not good for anybody in the long run.

    Plus, I like these dumb Trump boomers. They’re my kind of people. The kind of people I grew up around, anyway. They so seldom get to win anything, when they go up against the smarmy liberal types in cities. I just want them to win something. To think that they might lose just because a bunch of women and minorities got Orange Man Baded into voting for a senile old man whose own campaign thinks is so off-putting that he’s better off simply hiding than actually showing himself in public sucks.

    So that’s why I care about this election. All the policies and the economy and everything, sure. But frankly, I just don’t want the bad guys to win.

    • Agree: Marty, PhysicistDave
    • Thanks: Manfred Arcane
    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
  305. @Supply and Demand

    Your ballot is just like all the other Chinese exports – more China-made Crap.

  306. @Jack Armstrong

    Can Trump win any state north of the Mason-Dixon and east of the Mississippi? I guess Indiana, after that …

  307. @PhysicistDave

    (Anyone remember the “corrupt bargain” of 1824?)

    No, and just how old are you, anyway? ;-}

    I always get something out of your comments, Dave. Thanks.

  308. My prediction is that more dead people will vote Democrat than ever before!

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
  309. Corvinus says:
    @Excal

    Thank you for affirming what Harvey stated–there had been an effort made by Europeans to use small pox blankets. It may not have been widespread or effective, but the fact remains they engaged in this tactic.

    Here is a more exhaustive study on the topic.

    https://web.stanford.edu/dept/HPS/MayorSmallpox.pdf

    NOTICE you didn’t dispute Harvey’s other assertion–“And we used every other weapon we could get our hands on to grab this land from whomever. And we grew prosperous. And, yes, we greased the skids with the sweat of slaves”. To what extent do you believe this statement is accurate? Why?

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Wilkey
  310. Corvinus says:
    @Anonymous

    “I agree with everything you write with the proviso that the “uneducated” whites have also never given serious thought to what is civilization, how is it created, maintained, etc.”

    OK, what constitutes this “uneducated white” class? How are you certain they have not pondered those questions? I would say you are speaking more from an emotional, rather than logical, perspective. Perhaps you are a female?

    “They have a vaguely positive feeling towards their civilization but ultimately have more loyalty to brawndo and sportsball”.

    No, they are loyal to family, friends, nation, community, colleague, sports team.

    “Many are consumed by their own degenerate behavior; blaming the media for encouraging it doesn’t take away their responsibility for their own choices.”

    Assuming that these “uneducated whites” are engaging in this conduct, how do you propose as their alleged intellectual better to assist them to realize the err of their ways, other than virtue signaling and brow beating? Please be specific.

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
  311. Who will win?

    Well, politics is not really about fact, figures, the national debt (check USdebtclock.org), or any long needed monetary or fiscal logic at all, but all about the appearance of the economy… and absolutely more than anything else; cultural identity and animosity, if not raw emotions.

    All this suggest to me that Trump is going to win it. The Covid-lockdowns and the riots just magnify this trend. Joe Biden himself is not going to win anything… However, the real winners will be the mainstream media, the social media giants like Facebook and Twitter, the Hollywood glitterati and the Deep State, with Joe Biden as their nominal front man. Just the right amount of voter-fraud in the battleground states, and Joe Biden is home free and clear. So say hello to President Joe…

    But concerning the Hunter Biden dealings in China and Ukraine, nothing to see here folks, just move on. Whatever kickbacks Joe Biden got out of those, don’t waste your time playing 3D-chess with a man like him. Only the most basic of misdirection is an explanation good enough for understanding what he was all about. And that was cashing in… But that aside, who do the Russians want the most, Trump or Biden? Well, Biden of course, as he has repeatedly told the Russians and the Chinese that he is for sale. Trump on the other hand, is a loose cannon that the Russians may want to avoid and actively undermine. Not that they won’t try to undermine US Presidential elections out of malice, but they must do this as an information operation regardless. After all, they get the chance to hone their skills at this only every 4 years…
    Another question however, is Obama himself… Portrayed as the smartest guy on the planet, he must have known in great detail what Joe was up to. How could Joe Biden be blundering about in this way without Obama knowing any of it? How in the world could he NOT know! Is it just so that Biden got smart just in time to avoid Obamas scrutiny every time, over and over again? My guess is that Obama knew perfectly well, but knew they would not be caught red handed, simply because the mainstream media and social media giants are all-in for the Democrats. For this reason, a recent defector like Glenn Greenwald better start watching his back rather carefully now…

    • Replies: @Stan Adams
  312. Guest007 says:
    @epebble

    The fastest growing urban counties are where Latinos and blacks live. Why would anyone think that the Latino vote would go down.

    The Republicans in Texas are working hard to make themselves a minority party based upon the push to alienate both Latinos and college educated whites. Of course, any party that would hire Allen West to be the head of the party is not a serious party.

  313. Guest007 says:
    @JohnnyWalker123

    But how many of the registered Republicans will vote for Biden and how many of the registered Democrats will vote for Trump. Assuming that all registered Republicans will vote for Trump is probably a mistake.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  314. I never thought I would see a Presidential Campaign where one of the candidates puts on videos from Twitter about his opponent!

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  315. Corvinus says:
    @V. Hickel

    “its because the fraud is overwhelmingly on the democratic side. For example the thousands of aliens who vote every year.”

    There have been some cases, assuredly. But as far as widespread, perpetual fraud that has repeatedly and unequivocally swayed elections at the national level toward one candidate? No.

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @res
  316. Wilkey says:
    @Corvinus

    Corvinus, no one gives a shit. Yes, our ancestors conquered this land from its prior inhabitants – just like the ancestors of the current occupants of pretty much every other land on earth.

    So what? Do you have any plans do move back to wherever the hell your ancestors came from (which was also conquered from someone else, at some point in history)?

    This land was conquered. None of us are leaving. All you are trying to do is use guilt as a political weapon, and no one here is having it.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  317. Corvinus says:
    @Mike Thomas

    “which is how I know about things like the race and intelligence issue and the Jewish Question, that even most educated people are completely in the dark about.”

    To the contrary, educated white people are in the loop on such matters as a result of their own reading and independent thinking, and have drawn different conclusions that you personally disagree with.

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    , @anon
    , @anon
  318. Wilkey says:
    @fish

    This is also the state that threw Chris Cannon and Bob Bennett overboard. Give us a little credit.

    But no, I’m not that surprised.

  319. @Anonymous

    ” I voted for Biden because I want my children to grow up to be winners”

    NO you voted for Biden because you are a moronic nitwit and crazy as a loon.

    I quess a life-long grifter politician who goes around sniffing unsuspecting young girl’s hair against their will is your definition of a “Winner”

    AJM “Mensa” qualified since 1973, airborne trained US Army vet, and pro jazz artist.

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane
  320. @Bardon Kaldian

    Why can’t we have more charming immigrants like Melania?

  321. Element59 says:

    OK, I’m putting this in writing on Nov. 1

    Presidential election prediction: Trump wins

    Election Day prediction: No winner declared on Nov. 3

    Trump will carry the swing states that he needs and also closes the popular vote gap from 2016.

    The polls are wrong, again, largely due to the following factors:

    *not capturing apathetic moderate-conservative voters who are motivated this time to vote Trump. Statistically, self-identified conservatives outnumber self-identified liberals 35% to 26% respectively

    *not capturing registered white old school Dems who are now switching to Trump, but will not openly state so

    *not capturing black Dems who are switching to Trump (Trump pulls 5% more black vote than 2016)

    *not capturing Latinos who are switching to Trump – they are not on board with BLM and feel dominated and disrespected by the attention blacks are getting from the Dems (Trump pulls 8% more Latino vote than 2016)

    The press is promoting pro-Biden polls and most of the pollsters appear to lean Left and devise their sampling to that end. The press is out of touch with how much the BLM movement and the summer’s extraordinary urban violence fed by anti-police rhetoric turned-off middle Americans outside of the urban elitist bubbles. The Dems’ talk of hiking taxes and further authoritarian COVID control restrictions is demoralizing to a majority of Americans. The press remains willfully ignorant of just how much common sense Americans now distrust them – and who now feel highly motivated to reject all of the above through this election.

    This is an election that’s more about rejecting the trajectory that our elites are propagandizing and forcing us in than it is about liking Trump. It’s the Silent Majority’s protest.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave, Lagertha
  322. @Corvinus

    If you look at educated white people’s behavior rather than their words, you might reach a different conclusion about what they really believe.

    • Replies: @vinteuil
  323. res says:
    @Corvinus

    It is good to see Corvinus going back to his roots as the Unz Review “master” of logical fallacies. That was a nice re-purposing of the No True Scotsman fallacy.

    I’m curious, Corvinus. How may days after someone’s heart stops beating is it necessary to wait before declaring them unequivocally dead?

    P.S. And thanks for that update on the latest talking points. It is good to know that it is now OK to admit election fraud sometimes happens rather than just completely denying it out of hand.

  324. anon[147] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus

    educated white people are in the loop on such matters as a result of their own reading and independent thinking

    Corvinus, educated white people are the ones who decided, over the course of a few days this past summer, that abolishing the police was a good idea.

    You never heard any of them saying this until May of this year, and then suddenly, all at once, they all decided, at the exact same time, that it was totally necessary, because they saw a video of some black guy dying of a drug overdose.

    Educated white people are the ones who decided, based on no evidence at all, that Donald Trump colluded with Russian spies, to pull off the historically unprecedented feat of stealing a United States presidential election, and almost none of them stood up and pointed out how completely insane that sounded.

    I could come up with a million more examples of this if you really want me to, but the point is, if there is a group of people less prone to independent thinking than educated white people, I’d love to know who it is.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  325. anon[354] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus

    To the contrary, educated white people are in the loop on such matters as a result of their own reading and independent thinking, and have drawn different conclusions that you personally disagree with.

    Brrrrrrrr goes the globohomo drone.

  326. Muggles says:

    As of Nov. 1 my best hunch is Trump will win.

    That’s more wishful thinking than anything else. I claim no special insight. Polls do appear to be tightening up.

    Also, I’ve never voted for anyone who actually won. Maybe this time.

  327. @peterike

    Trump is “the most informed President in at least 50 years”? More or better informed than Richard Nixon? A man who had served two terms as Ike’s VP, and had travelled widely as a private citizen, meeting with most significant world leaders before taking office in 1969?

    I admire DJT’s resilience in the face of unrelenting attacks from all corners, and will be voting enthusiastically for him Tuesday, but let’s not gild the lily.

  328. Marty says:
    @AnonAnon

    Truck parade through Marin today. By the way, yesterday I passed Michael Savage on the freeway between Mill Valley and Sausalito. He was driving his open top XK120.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  329. @Guest007

    Assuming that all registered Republicans will vote for Trump is probably a mistake.

    Historically, both parties have had “loyal” voters near 90%, and polls that claimed that there would be a significant change from those figures invariably turn out to be wrong.

    In addition, the “disloyal” voters are more likely to vote for a third party candidate than the other major candidate–there is a long history of data on this as well.

    That is why changes in party registration from election to election are a much better predictor of any change in election outcomes than any poll.

    • Replies: @Guest007
  330. @peterike

    peterike,

    You may love the guy and Trump’s priorities, level of focus and rhetorical pitch may work for you. (I can’t fathom why, but to each his own.)

    But it is simply a fact that it has decidedly has failed to work for millions of people, who should be Trump voters!

    Few obvious examples likely to cost him re-election:

    — Trump separated himself from the standard issue Republican pack largely on immigration, secondarily on trade and reining in the wars. Then in the first year we got the wall, e-verify, slashed H1-Bs … no, Trump made a deal with Paul Ryan for tax cuts. His brilliant negotiating left his agenda on the cutting room floor, and he had to grind on it in succeeding years. Just stupid.

    — Trump talks about immigration occasionally–and not likely the illegal thing–but he hasn’t had the rhetorical chops to do the absolutely essential job of tying it directly and critically to American’s job, wage prospects and housing costs … and tying it into a seamless package of protecting the American dream.

    A corollary: Trump has not tied it hard and fast to the diminished job prospects of HS and college grads. And “affordable family formation. This is leaving million dollar bills on the table. If young people thought not just “i’m getting screwed” but “Trump’s trying to fix it and the Democrats are trying to screw me worse” and the Democrats lost the youth vote … the election would again be no contest. (The Democrats critically depend on a bunch of groups being stupid and voting against their interests–young people, white women.)

    — Trump has muffed the whole Xi virus thing, not by being wrong, but be being Trump–random, half-assed. He’s basically been right–it’s not any kind of threat to civilization, the death rate is low, we ought to have the economy humming. It’s basically a geezer killer and was pretty much–once loose–locked in to kill a bunch of old/sick folks … most of whom are part of Trump’s base, and/or have family in his base. Very calm, rational, these are the scientific facts we know, this-is-what-we-need-to-do explanation done very sensitively always with a bit of sorrow nodding at the fine Americans we’re going to lose could have gone a long way toward keeping more oldsters and white women on-side. But Trump can’t bother to discipline himself to do that. He’s made it easy for the establishment/Democrat media to portray him as the guy who “rejects science” and “puts the economy over human lives” and basically con oldsters and white women.

    Note in all these things, i’m just ask Trump to be *better* at being Trump. These are failures of Trump to simply make his own policy set more effective politically and get himself re-elected to do more or it.

  331. @Anonymous

    I voted for Biden because I want my children to grow up to be winners.

    Winners like … Hunter Biden?

  332. vinteuil says:
    @Alexander Turok

    If nobody’s paying Alexander Turok & Corvinus to reply to one another’s posts, than nobody should be.

  333. @Morosamguten

    But concerning the Hunter Biden dealings in China and Ukraine, nothing to see here folks, just move on.

    Why shouldn’t Hunter’s shenanigans be fair game?

    Would you feel the same way if Don Jr. were receiving payments from a company with ties to the Russian government? Can you imagine what CNN would do with a story like that?

    Let’s face it: Joe Biden is one corrupt SOB. Obama is corrupt. The Clintons are corrupt. They’re all pigs feeding at the public trough. They’re whores, wholly undeserving of even one iota of admiration and/or respect.

    The fact that people such as Barack and Hillary and Joe are allowed anywhere near the White House indicates that our system is fundamentally broken.

    • Agree: Lagertha
  334. Biden wins. How can he not? Voters have to have info to vote. 2020 is the year of Disinformation, Censorship and Deplatforming. There is no way that voters have gotten the proper info.

  335. @Marty

    Hell, there was a Trump Truck parade today in the heart of Silicon Valley.

    It was great to see the sign on the back of one of the trucks:

    President Trump. Finally a president with balls!

    • Replies: @Lagertha
  336. @Supply and Demand

    Just got confirmation from the Beijing embassy that my absentee ballot (Wisconsin) was processed. I’m proud to have voted for Joe [Kamala]!

    So you essentially admit you’re a racist. Good to clear that up.

    Of course, Joe has done more for China than just about anybody in the US, so naturally there would be some gratitude on your part.

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
  337. @Reg Cæsar

    I have said multiple times on Unz that I am a racist. The term isn’t a gotcha where I live — China is exceptionally racist place. You just need to hate the right races: dot Indians, negroes, Arabs.

    You guys live in a very strange world where you think academics aren’t some of the most racist folk in the world. I’ve had 6 white students in 5 years who were from the Southern United States and failed them all because they were subhuman Scots-Irish. I’ve had 19 African exchange students that have all failed because they’re subhuman Blacks. I’ve failed none of my domestic Chinese students and no American exchange students from above the Mason Dixon line. The groups in those latter categories have certainly deserved it. There will be zero consequences because the daughters of the military elite who attend here give me rave reviews because I am young, have aryan features and keep trim.

    • Replies: @Dissident
  338. cityview says:
    @Cato

    I agree on the war issue. If I end up voting for Trump–and I don’t identify as Republican or conservative per se–keeping the U. S. out of new wars will be a big reason why. I’m surprised more people don’t think that’s important.

  339. @Anonymous

    #324, come on, man! (As your role model would say.)

    We all know Trump is a braggart, he rambles on in circles, he exaggerates and just kind of bullshits quite often. However, Biden is a flat-out plagiarizing lying white-hating asshole. How is he ANY kind of example for your kids? How is Kamala, the bi-racial kid child of a broken home of two foreigners (remind you of anybody, some Constitutional scholar with REDACTED SAT scores? Anyone, anyone, … Bueller?) someone to look up to for ANYONE?

    “Loser values” WTF does that even mean? There are people who’ve lost a lot, but have done so much for this world. You’d call them losers rather than care about their accomplishments? There are winners who’ve destroyed countries and killed millions. Are they going to be your kids’ role models?

    Is it that you are going to vote for the guy (really the slut) that you think will win, so that makes you feel better? What kind of stupid shit …

    • Agree: PhysicistDave, bomag
  340. Guest007 says:
    @Justvisiting

    What the cite for voter registration being a better indicator than polling? Also, what happens with the increasing number of independent voters who actually lean one way or another. Did all of those voters in Loudoun county Virginia really change their registration when they started voting for Democrats? The same for the suburbs of Philly, Atlanta, etc?

    Party registration is really only important in states with closed primaries.

  341. Guest007 says:
    @GeneralRipper

    Trump remind many people of the worst boss or coworker they ever hard: vain, stupid, refuses to face reality, indulges in hopeful thinking, cannot be convinced, contrarian, defiant disorder, narcissistic, sociopath. It is hard to like a blowhard vain liar if one is a knowledge worker or professional.

  342. @cityview

    The anti-war issue is very important in a couple of states where Trump could surprise the “experts”, MN and OR.

    If he pulls the big upset in either of those states, that may be the reason.

  343. Yngvar says:

    Trump is going to win. Big easily.

  344. @Corvinus

    Corvinus wrote:

    No, [uneducated whites\ are loyal to family, friends, nation, community, colleague, sports team.

    I am glad, Corvy, that you are finally revealing your secret admiration for Trump’s core voters.

  345. @anon

    anon[147] wrote:

    Plus, I like these dumb Trump boomers. They’re my kind of people. The kind of people I grew up around, anyway.

    One of my high-school social-studies classes happened to include one of the stars of the school basketball team, not an idiot, but certainly not an honors student.

    But he took seriously the issues of current events, political principles, etc. discussed in the class.

    I also knew the three guys who were co-captains of the football team — one was an honors student, one was just a so-so student, the third had trouble passing courses.

    Given the choice, I would rather be ruled by the various jocks I knew in my high-school class than by the faculty members I knew at Stanford.

    Yeah, the Stanford faculty had higher IQs. But many of them were dishonest, unscrupulous, power-hungry jerks. (The faculty I knew at Caltech were more decent, by the way.)

    The high-school jocks I knew were, on the whole, decent well intentioned people.

    Ordinary Americans are still okay. Our elites reek of decadence.

  346. bomag says:
    @Supply and Demand

    The former “silent Trumper” who is a white middle-manager with obese boomer parents who he relies on for child-care is justly miffed with this stuff… I know many such people. They live in gated communities with armed guards

    Sounds like they are miffed over something the other party would have bungled even more; and why vote for candidates that will give HUD vouchers to the entire third world to buy the house next door?

    you underestimate how much the corporate world is chained to the federal government. Nothing in my field moved without the Department of Ed. making it rain on these companies…

    It’s not like Trump and the Repubs don’t lavishly fund this stuff. And at least the Repubs will give out fewer of the above HUD vouchers.

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
  347. Trump wins , picks up Minnesota and Nevada so he does not need win Pennsylvania , although he probably still wins PA

  348. @The Wild Geese Howard

    I agree wholeheartedly. I am totally in love with her (as person, not as a woman) and I think she is one of the best things to happen to the US in eons.
    So much class and dignity, compared to her boogaloo stomping predecessor.

    AJM

  349. Travis says:

    Trump is polling better than in 2016….The never Trumpers are not as numerous, and , unlike 2016 when 2 Republicans (McMullin and Gary Johnson) were on the ballot.

    Trump will probably win the popular vote this year, as the 4% who voted for Gary Johnson and McMullin, are mostly going to vote for Trump this time

    Trump wins Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nevada.

    • Agree: Lagertha
  350. Corvinus says:
    @Wilkey

    “So what? Do you have any plans do move back to wherever the hell your ancestors came from (which was also conquered from someone else, at some point in history)?”

    Except what I hear from some posters here is that the U.S. is currently experiencing an invasion of our “native stock”. The Orcs have inundated the Shire! So, obviously, they do care about being conquered themselves. Haven’t you received the memo from your handlers?

  351. Corvinus says:
    @anon

    “Corvinus, educated white people are the ones who decided, over the course of a few days this past summer, that abolishing the police was a good idea.”

    SOME white people who are educated called for that course of action. Obviously, that idea is wrong-headed.

    “because they saw a video of some black guy dying of a drug overdose.”.

    Not exactly what happened with George Floyd. You are leaving out an important part of the story.

    “Educated white people are the ones who decided, based on no evidence at all, that Donald Trump colluded with Russian spies”

    You mean government officials with far more knowledge and background on such matters put together a case based on intelligence data and good old fashioned investigative work. The evidence is clearly there, you just don’t want to believe it.

    “I could come up with a million more examples of this if you really want me to…”

    Which would be rife with logical errors.

    “but the point is, if there is a group of people less prone to independent thinking than educated white people, I’d love to know who it is.”

    I heard Jews cannot think for themselves. They are tribalistic.

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
  352. @bomag

    When I was 26 and pulling 14 hour shifts at a tech startup, I was pulling the Dem lever. You guys have time to examine stuff, people who are putting food on the table in high-demand, high-turnover, high-attrition careers simply want society to function again. Joe Biden is the obvious choice for that.

    • LOL: Coemgen
    • Replies: @bomag
  353. Richard B says:
    @Mike Thomas

    Another great comment. I’m sure a lot of people could identify with it.

    Regarding alienation. There’s no question it’s difficult. But if the difficulties can be overcome the rewards are incalculable.

    I think it’s also the case that being individually ostracized from your own group is worse psychologically than being a member of an oppressed group.

    That very well may be. But, in that case, were they really your own group? In my own case I had to come to the conclusion that the group, or groups, I thought were my own, weren’t. There were some hard times involved in that realization, but I’m glad to came to it and accepted it.

    There were some long stretches of desert loneliness too. But I was convinced that could be overcome, and I was right. Of course, as soon as I accepted, fully, my alienation things changed across the board and for the better. But I had to say good-bye to a lot of friends. So glad I did that too.

    Then again, probably my main reason for feeling alienated is just that I’m just very different. Not in a bad way, I’m just much more of an intellectual type.

    The sister of one of my girlfriends used to say to her, “Why are you with him? He’s different.” Naturally, we didn’t last because she couldn’t stand the pressure. And me being “an intellectual type” definitely played into that. So be it.

    Painful as it was at the time, I’m so glad we broke up and that I’m with the woman I’m with now. We’ve been married for years, making the previous alienation a distant dream of another person’s life.

    I don’t mind being seen as quirky or eccentric, but my own people thinking I’m a bad person is a different story.

    A question I used to ask myself was If you like yourself why care if someone else thinks you’re a bad person?

    It took me a while to answer that question in a way that was satisfactory to me. The reasons why aren’t worth going into here. The important thing is I answered it. Mainly by purging those people from my life. Glad I did that too.

    • Replies: @Mike Thomas
  354. bomag says:
    @Supply and Demand

    At one time, the Democrats could plausibly sell themselves as the party that would fix the roads and look out for the little guy against foreign and domestic unfair practices.

    Not anymore.

  355. Lagertha says:
    @Known Fact

    Trump is gonna Secretariat Joe. Trump is going to win by a lot; my instincts for this victory is just too strong. There is something about people and animals that have red hair.

    Enjoy this video. I too, love horses (and race horses), and when I see this, it always brings chills to my spine!

    • Replies: @Known Fact
  356. @Adam Smith

    This graphic is why people who vote for a party with zero likelihood of winning are such weak bitches. They help give weight to the system’s fraudulent claim that voting is a legitimate way of determining social preferences.

    The majority of the eligible voting population usually does not vote – at least in systems that pass a minimal hurdle for “free and fair” election… which morally excludes mandatory voting.

    It is almost never the case that the votes obtained by the ‘winner’ is greater than the number of abstentions.

    If you go candidate by candidate, the proportion of the population that votes “No to this specific asshole” (i.e., who vote for someone other than the candidate, or do not vote) is of the order of 70%, consistently – even for US Presidential elections.

  357. Lagertha says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    I can’t wait to see Melania and Donald for the next 4 years at the White House. The most Beautiful FLOTUS ever!

    One of the reasons (so many) I know that Trump will win is because the MSM and Fashion Media Complex has been so disgusting towards her.

    They have never, ever, put her on a cover, or actually, for once, written an article on her – people want to know. And, women who support Trump feel that this type of sneering elitism and snobbery, really hatefulness, is exactly why the Coastal elites are despised, why Trump won, and, that more and more women will vote for Trump this time. Women really hate women, especially those disingenuous, full-of-hate, coastal and metropolitan elite. This is a bit of a FY to Progressive, obnoxious, metro white women.

    It is unseemly to treat Melania and Barron so badly for 5 years. These foolish, educated snobs are too narcissistic to understand that actual Americans, who love their country, do not like people who disrespect POTUS, FLOTUS, The White House, the Office of the Presidency. BTW, I voted for Obama (worst mistake of my life), so this is not Trump-love talking. I learned history…learned about the horrors of what the Economic Reset/new Bretton Woods means for my children. I believe in liberty.

    • Thanks: The Wild Geese Howard
  358. Anon[326] • Disclaimer says:

    Biden will win handily. Trump whines and complains constantly, like a black female, which turns off normal men.

    • Replies: @bomag
  359. Lagertha says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    This is why Trump is so popular with Gen Z boys (and girls) who happened to turn 18…just in time to vote.

    I knew Trump would win because of football. Trump also gets credit for “saving” College (Big League) football. Well, it was actually SEC, Big, 12, Southern Uni’s that forced the cucked Midwestern and Northern programs to play…especially when Nebraska sued the Big 10 – the covidiots,

    Boys across my Blue state were kept in the dark about football season all summer (training usually starts after July 4th)…and, our wussy-ass (no balls) governor finally said it was too dangerous (the Coof). HS boys were upset, as were parents. Several times they protested in the State Capitol, and some other major towns….to no avail. The protests were national news, btw, but I’m too lazy to find the link 😉

    Simultaneously, the girls volleyball (indoors) was allowed to happen – girls wear masks, and, trust me, volley ball, if you’re any good, your face/head is very close to your opponent or teammate…especially during spiking.

    The HS boys pleaded with the State: they said they will wear masks like the soccer, volleyball, FH girls – Football players wear mouth guards, anyway. But, once again, the Governor said “no.”

    So what happened, the two richest counties formed their own private club football. Many seniors were counting on film to get onto University teams. Then, surprise, surprise, 2 blue collar towns decided to play each other, and were invited to play the “rich towns.” The “rich towns” offered some funding, but the blue collar towns (and 60% minority) said they would be fine fundraising on their own – lots of orgs, businesses and people sent funds. I mean, this was all about their hometown kids after a long 6, boring and frustrating months.

    Then, more towns wanted to join…it became an embarrassment for the Governor and the Health Dept. The newspapers wrote scathing articles about how immature the guys were; how irresponsible and selfish the parents and coaches were (I knew this was gonna happen; it was quite funny – glad my sons are long gone from HS football – but non-athletes, many elites, don’t understand sportsball people) and how they were “putting lives at risk.” By, the way, it is like 40* at night, so people would have been fine if the season was played. People are cocooned-up and tend to not talk because it’s too bloody cold.

    However, what did the boys learn: Government and Media lie to you. The hilarious part: the overlords in our state could not criticize the “rich town” because the 60* minority towns/blue collar towns had simultaneously decided to play, like the “rich towns”, because the health (including mental) and well being of their boys was more important.

    And, lastly, the MSM was so frustrated that 2 of the most talented QB’s (their HSs fell for Coof Fearporn) decided to go live with family in TX & OK to complete their senior year, play, and hopefully be recruited by Big Football programs. Both these guys were black, so the media could not write mean articles about these boys’ perceived “selfishness.”

    Most people, especially haughty white people who vote for Democrats, do not realize that for many very good players (height, speed and instincts are rare) this is their ticket to a better life….either by attending University, or, winding up in the NFL – these 2 particular HSs have placed at least 6 players (last 20 years) on to the NFL. And, for 4 of the black guys, it was their ticket into the 1%.

    And, for girls: the fastest runners were thwarted for 3 years by 2 trannies. These girls won their lawsuit, but are already in college. Getting into the program or University of choice may have happened, if they did not have to compete with jocks-with-cocks for 3 years.

    Young people are very into MAGA Instagram posts – well, girls. They also know how much fun it is to go to a MAGA rally because all the hot guys are there! It’s like a rock concert, during the era of The Coof. Lockdowns; no Prom, no graduation & parties; beach closings; no football (no cheerleaders); no home-coming dance; no Halloween; no concerts, was too much. These Gen Z are solid for Trump…and so are their parents.

    I almost think it may flip my state back to Red….it just might. The kids are fed up. Oh, lastly, hahaaaa, there are kids who are being arrested, expelled, fined for having parties or being at a party. If that does not make kids hate college administrators, nothing will. Like I said, the suicides (growing – media is virtue signaling by bringing up suicide hotlines in print and local TV) are on the adults, the Progressive adults – they are responsible for that misery. Gen Z are more conservative, cynical and distrusting of all institutions than Millennials. They see thru the indoctrination of Marxist ideas foisted upon them. And, identity politics is sneered at.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  360. bomag says:
    @Anon

    Trump whines and complains constantly, like a black female…

    LOL

    A difference between complaining when your efforts are thwarted and complaining because status and stuff aren’t being given to you.

  361. @Lagertha

    Trump might be more of a Silky Sullivan — famed for winning from way behind!

    (BTW your other comment about Melania being shunned by the press is so right on — a gorgeous, classy and slightly exotic first lady and the fashion mag idiots and other assorted media pretend she doesn’t exist. The bias and jealousy is insane)

    • Replies: @Lagertha
  362. Biden wins fairly easily 330+ electoral college votes. Trump barely won last time and he just has too many negatives.

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
  363. @Richard B

    Thanks for the advice man, I appreciate it.

    I was actually just talking to someone recently about how because I was a “gifted” child I always just assumed that intelligent and educated people were “my people” but now I’ve had a belated epiphany that those aren’t always the most important things. I’ll hit it off with some smart people, but with others I’ll clash badly. And I have a friend who never went to college and we have a great rapport and always have fun.

    I did end one friendship, and it was a relief going from being frustrated trying to make it work to just accepting that it’s not working and walking away. I also “demoted” someone, where we’re still friendly but I’m no longer invested in expecting a certain connection that was unrealistic to begin with.

    • Replies: @Richard B
  364. Cato says:
    @cityview

    Thank you for your comment. I’m surprised at the indifference to peace, too, especially among my generation that so resented Vietnam. I think a volunteer military makes it easier for those who rise in Washington to execute their foreign policy fantasies, and perhaps the MSM throws a veil over those fantasies when it suits MSM objectives (arguably they under-reported the war-making of Nobel Peace Prize winner POTUS Obama).

  365. Cato says:
    @Mike Thomas

    Look, I would drop the whole reference-to-Jews thing. Jews are incredibly diverse (just like WASPS, or Slavs, or Muslims, or any other sub-category of supposedly homogeneous White people). Jews have had problems living among Christians (and Muslims) for all those centuries, and they are an unusually able people, with an unusually strong impact in societies that allow them to exist, but they are a heterogeneous group, and don’t deserve to be lumped together.

    You are an outsider. Read Nietzsche, he will speak to you. Especially if you are young. If you are not so young, read Hayek. He will draw you back toward what has to be the common ground among all of us who are so different from each other.

  366. Biden wins but narrowly in the EC, in the 270 to 300 range. Trump wins no new states, Biden doesn’t take new Romney 2012/solid red states, it’s just Biden flipping a few from 2016, including the Rust Belt.

    Democrats hold the House and Republicans hold the Senate, which is part of the recipe for a very ineffective next few years of federal government.

    The polling industry and related media will be insufferable, and will experience no consequences for being wrong, even though they are already wrong about various numbers and there certainly will not be a Biden landslide. For instance, Trump won’t even do as well with nonwhite voters as the average poll, let alone what Trump diehards have tricked themselves into thinking. Same with all the similar nonsense about “noncollege” voters and suburbs and so forth although potentially in the other way for partisans, they set themselves up to get those numbers even more wrong than 2016, but again the media won’t care and will just brag about the overall Biden win.

    The Biden administration will oversee America experiencing economic malaise, political distrust, no revolutionary decrease in crime, no peace in the Middle East or anything like that. Republicans probably win 2024 after all that. The Covid pandemic also doesn’t get better for a year or more, it will continue killing elderly/infirm people just like 2020. Whatever nonsense the Biden administration pushes about a mask policy (except BLM protesters/rioters don’t have to wear masks) will be ineffective, same with any other policy. If we are unlucky, and honestly it’s a scientific possibility, even the potential vaccines out there won’t be very effective and countries like the US/Europe will just see Covid killing thousands of elderly people for years, as it could take decades for covid prevalence around the world to go down. The virus could mutate too much or the most vulnerable Covid cohorts (the sick elderly) won’t gain immunity from the vaccine anyway, and the US lacks the political will to cut off foreign travel and immigration from third worlders and so forth that would keep bringing the extremely contagious disease back. Of course in an economic or political sense society will give up and just let the virus kill those it’s going to kill if this is the case in the long run, more than the next year or two.

    Sorry in advance for the reader who finds the tone too pessimistic, I’m not even that pessimistic about the future overall right now just these two subjects line up this way.

  367. Lagertha says:
    @Known Fact

    being a European girl in the USA, I have always been friends with everyone – always been nervous/on-guard with Americans. Americans have never overcome their “poor” roots, so they despise anyone who may get by with their looks, or money. Most new money elites in the USA, despise people who have that extra thing.

  368. Dissident says:
    @Supply and Demand

    I’ve had 6 white students in 5 years who were from the Southern United States and failed them all because they were subhuman Scots-Irish. I’ve had 19 African exchange students that have all failed because they’re subhuman Blacks.

    Subhuman? In each of the above cases that you cite, what made the individuals-in-question “subhuman”?

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
    , @BB753
  369. @Dissident

    My opinion. If you don’t like it, leave.

  370. @Lagertha

    They also know how much fun it is to go to a MAGA rally because all the hot guys are there!

    This is why I think Trump’s (and his family) barnstorming campaign has been great PR – it’s a low-cost, healthy social outlet for people that haven’t had one for most of 2020.

  371. Richard B says:
    @Mike Thomas

    Thanks for the exchange Mike. All the best!

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