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There has been a lot of talk about bias and discrimination in artificial intelligence systems, such as last year’s NYT op-ed:
Now, obviously, much of this represents rage at intelligence in general, whether artificial or natural, along with the growing bias against white guys.
But AI is interesting because it encourages people to think twice about difficult questions.
For example, there is much controversy over a program called Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions or COMPAS that some states use for helping make parole decisions for prisoners based on a number of factors, such as chance to commit another serious crime if you are allowed out of prison early.
From Jacobite, a defense of COMPAS:
A.I. ‘BIAS’ DOESN’T MEAN WHAT JOURNALISTS SAY IT MEANS
Chris Stucchio & Lisa Mahapatra August 29, 2017
The basic problem is that there is a racial gap in behavior: black prisoners are more likely to re-offend than, say, Asian prisoners. Should race therefore be taken into account in making parole decisions?
It’s apparently, not included as a direct factor in COMPAS.
On the other hand, what if COMPAS were to use questions to tease out race, such as “Does the prisoner like grape soda?” (I don’t know if it is true anymore, but when I was in MBA school in the early 1980s, it was a Marketing Research Fun Fact that African Americans liked grape soda more than other groups did.)
Much of the arguments over “disparate impact” are over claims that some
But even if it did neither, there some tough conundrums to consider. For example, consider two prisoners with identical criminal records, but one is black and one is Asian. Indeed, assume the crime they are in prison for is identical: they were playing pool in a bar and got annoyed by another guy flirting with a girl they liked, so they shoved the guy, then, when he cursed back, they grabbed a pool cue and hit the guy over the head, knocking him out but not permanently injuring him. Neither offender appears to be a gang member or a professional criminal. They’re just hot-tempered dumb guys who do seriously bad things now and then.
But let’s say that the National Academy of Sciences is drafted to look into all the behavioral (i.e., not genetic) factors that predict re-offending rates. They report that if let out of prison a year early, all else being equal, the black prisoner has statistically twice the chance of committing another serious crime during that year as the Asian prisoner, just because that’s what blacks and Asians behave like.
So it would be more efficient for society to let the Asian prisoner out ahead of the black prisoner.
But would it be just for a judge to sentence the black defendant to longer in prison than the Asian just for being a different race?
Maybe, maybe not.
I would distinguish between trying to prevent crime before it happens and trying to punish crime after it happens. I would be more sympathetic to using race, as in “racial profiling,” to prevent crime. I’m wary of using race as a factor in determining punishment for crime.
The problem is that the two issues overlap in questions like determining when to let a prisoner out of prison, which has both a punishment for a past infraction aspect and a prevention of future crime aspect.
That, say, an Asian-American in prison for a violent crime would be less likely statistically to commit another violent crime than an African-American with the same history of violence would suggest that it would be a statistically more efficient use of prison resources to let the Asian out before the black.
On the other hand, the idea of punishing one individual more than another individual due to racial differences seems distasteful and not in sync with the best principles of Anglo-American jurisprudence. I don’t really know how to resolve the two feelings.
One possible angle on this difficult question is the matter of time: racial profiling is more reasonable under time pressure.
For example, your daughter’s car breaks down at night in a bad neighborhood and her phone is dead. She can walk either north or south to get help. North of her she can see six African-American teens loitering on the corner, while south of her she can see six Laotian-American teens loitering on the corner. Which way should she go? Is she wrong to use race as a major input in her decision-making?
In contrast, a parole board has time to research in some depth into individual characteristics, so putting a high value on race would seem more questionable.
In summary, you can see why so many people feel it unthinkable that racial differences in behavior actually exist. Sure, blaming systemic racism is basically conspiracy theorizing, but it makes other questions simpler.
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It’s quite clear that this is the answer. You seem to be a utilitarian. Even if you consider in rule-utilitarian framework. The law is more effective and stable when it is blind – as depicted in traditional images of ‘Lady Justice’ wearing a blindfold.
E.g.
The desire to avoid judging by appearance is often so idealized that it transcends moderation and approaches the adsurb. To take one example: at my last jury duty, the accused had tattoos. In response, one guy said cops have tattoos. Yes, but not on their fingers. It was a DWI offense and the guy was a serious lightweight. Yet, I was the only juror present who even acknowledged the fact.Replies: @ScarletNumber
Women already get dramatically lower sentences for the same crime. It is an entrenched pattern far greater than any race bias in sentencing.
Yes, to do otherwise would be too Libertarian and muh-Constitutiony. What the hell did the Founding Fathers know anyway, with all that due process and blind justice crap?
“but it makes other questions simpler.””
Such as why the white girl lives in a country with other tribes?
Steve, need some proofreading attention here.
Wait … what?
No, come on. Of course that would be unjust. I guess we’re all at various points along the HBD-realist line, depending upon our own minds and our own experiences, but … yeah, I think I missed my station a few minutes ago.
““Does the prisoner like grape soda?”
Blacks refer to grape soda as “purpal drank” around here. But they typically report their favorite flavor of kool aide as “red”.
Impossible in there real world. In your case of two and Asian and a Black guys all else being equal would mean that they are both adopted by white parent families who happen to be identical twins with respect to each other, leave in the same neighborhoods where no Blacks or Asians ever show up, and so on.
Race which also means culture connects to everything. You can’t disentangle genes from it. Stop trying.
Well, that depends on whether or not the Laotians are Hmong or not.
Regarding grape soda (sort of) and blacks
She should run like hell either East or West and not stop until she finds a white neighborhood.
The controversy surrounding the predictive models has to due with in something called “latent variables” which in statistical lingo, means unobserved variables that nonetheless effect the model indirectly through their relationship the observed variables you included in your model.
Say your model includes things that race may be related to such as education, income, neighborhood where you live, prior criminal record etc, then your model will detect the effect of race through these other variables.
There is another more philosophical problem as well. Predictive models use “training data” to learn the relationship between the output variable (in this case, recidivism risk) and the input variables. Each data point in the training set is the record of an individual person, crucially not the persons the model is being used on. This means that any decision regarding an individual made using the model necessary reflect crimes other people committed . Basically, guilt by statistical association.
It's the way most every predictive model works. Like using the SAT or your high school grades.
*You* have not actually been to college yet when the college makes a decision. You just might be that special snowflake that will knock Harvard out of the park and go on to entrepreneurial greatness with your crappy 650s. But Harvard figures ... uh ... no thanks. It's the way every job interview works. Most medicine works. Heck most everything works... hey maybe you can eat that fruit everyone says is poison, you're physiology hasn't been tested yet!
I think the rough name for this "problem" is "knowledge".Replies: @J.Ross
Replies: @Anonymous IV
I think there is a consideration in some cases to the race of the victim. If we consider Michael Brown to be a victim, then the fact that the cop who shot him was white played a big role.
What no one will say is that they should not be in the same society. Diversity is injustice. And if you sentence them differently (even as our current system does giving massively undeserved credit to the black to balance some pre-existing situation) you are agreeing that different peoples have different cultures and need different laws.
I think the real issue is that some
You threw me there with Indian. When you said Asian, I was picturing a Chinese guy.
To clarify for everyone, it was not an Oriental guy in that hypothetical story. BTW, in case you think an Oriental guy would be the least likely to beat anyone on the head with a pool cue, I know one example - yes, beer was involved.
The funny part was when we went into the same bar, which he had been banned from due to said incident, he thought for sure the bouncer would believe him when he said "No, that was my brother!" (How could the guy tell right? They all look (near) the same and all that). It didn't take.
Thanks.
Blacks refer to grape soda as "purpal drank" around here. But they typically report their favorite flavor of kool aide as "red".Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @ScarletNumber
Yeah, I’ve noticed (oops!) over the years that they definitely like the bright colors, in everything.
Dave Chappelle – Grape Drink
I was surprised at reading this. Two men of different races commit the same offense, and perhaps they should be sentenced differently because statistics indicate the black is more likely to re-offend?
Sentencing this black man differently would be a rank injustice, and social engineering.
As for my hypothetical daughter avoiding blacks in favor of Laotians, that is a matter of practicality, not justice.
https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/prison/index.htmReplies: @AndrewR, @BB753, @27 year old
Yes. People of Color should have the affirmative defense of anti racism snd have their sentences lessened or commuted if it can proven that the crime was committed because of systemic inequality
Sorry, this started out as a comment on SlateStarCodex.com with an Indian, but I generalized it here, but didn’t catch this use.
“That, say, an Asian-American in prison for a violent crime would be less likely statistically to commit another violent crime than an African-American with the same history of violence would suggest that it would be a statistically more efficient use of prison resources to let the Indian out before the black.”
It’s interesting how the “Asian-American” in the beginning of the paragraph —
https://www.google.com/search?tbm=isch&q=chechen#imgrc=jRR42PrbOKw2uM: —
has by the end of the paragraph become an “Indian”
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36804209
OT should race be considered in British neighborhoods?
at 4chan now:
>BBC releases a documentary called “White Fright: Divided Britain”
>Shows how Muslim immigration/integration is an abject failure in English towns
>They tried to frame it in the usual white flight/racist Brits light
>When you remove all the needless politicians & talking heads whats left is prime redpill material
The question in the article is too whatchamacallit, hypothetical. How about this question instead:
If the po-leese grab up a brother for questioning, and he asks them for a pack of nabs and a grape soda, and they bring him a moon pie and a RC, then is the brother’s several rights done been violated?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7gOq_q0Jy0
But Lady Justice is a white woman with blond hair. That would be imposing a Eurocentric justice system on non-whites.
Now that cops are recording video of their encounters, it would be important to see statistical breakdowns of not only use of force by police but also uncooperative / disrespectful / resistant behavior by the offenders encountering the police. Perhaps the evidence will surprise us and that encounters with Black civilians, arrestees, offenders will be exactly as respectful and cooperative as the other rates… Let the video and the statistics speak for themselves.
A few years ago the New Jersey highway patrol was forced to apologize to the Black community for issuing a disproportionate number of speeding tickets to Blacks, and institute a program to study the problem and make reforms. As part of the reforms they studied driver activity using automatic cameras and radar, and discovered that Blacks were in fact disproportionately speeding, and the ticketing rates simply reflected it. The disparity actually increased as speeds over the limit increased. The study nevertheless had no effect on the Highway Patrol being forced to make “reforms” anyway.Replies: @CCZ, @Anonymous
OT Strzok Scandal
at 4chan from a tweet by Paul Sperry:
Senator Grassley has confirmed on the floor of the Capitol and read into the Congressional record that the Fusion GPS “dossier” (which was the evidentiary basis for the FISA wiretapping) was unverified in 2016 and therefore not good enough to justify the wiretaps.
All the wheels are coming off and none are stamped “Russian Federation.”
An anon follows this with:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/24/report-doj-has-found-and-is-recovering-missing-fbi-text-messages/Replies: @J.Ross
Let’s flip around the thought experiment by considering sentencing disparity from the SJW point of view. Black communities are made to suffer by society at large, because the criminal-justice system imprisons young black men at rates that are far out of proportion to incarceration of young white and Asian men.
These days, it’s practical to come up with cheap, validated measures of Blackness. 23andMe and Ancestry.com generate a DNA-based percentage figure that’s accurate to about 0.5% Or use machine learning to quantify African facial features on mug shots, combine that with skin reflectance.
So we have everything needed to create a model that systematically eliminates systematic racism and bias. Determine the Race Multiple for a given crime, then apply the formula to black convicts at the sentencing phase.
For instance, suppose the per-capita conviction rates for vehicular manslaughter is half again as high for blacks as it is for non-blacks. And suppose that John Doe has just received a standard sentence of 12 months. If Mr. Doe’s Blackness Index is 75%, his sentence would be adjusted as follows:
* Racial Adjustment — (12 months)/(1.5x) = 8 months.
* Thus, the sentence of a 100% Black felon would be reduced by 4 months.
* Mr. Doe gets 75% of this benefit, or a 3 month reduction.
* Thus, Mr. Doe must serve (12 months) – (3 months) = 9 months.
One potential objection is that reduction of sentence doesn’t compensate for the number of convictions. In that case, after conviction, black felons could be given the chance for a reversal on appeal (records expunged), with the odds of success determined as above. For example, John Doe’s chance for walking would be (1 – (9 months)/(12 months)), or 25%.
Shouldn't that read 18 months?Replies: @ic1000
How much of the liberal-left freakout over Trump has to do with a perceived incompatibility of the realities of human biodiversity and the principle enshrined in the Declaration of Independence that all men are created equal? I think quite a lot, maybe almost all of it.
Rightly understood, I don’t think the ideal of human equality and the realities of racial differences are incompatible, at least when it comes to the design of good policy. For example, in the realm of trade a good policy is one that recognizes that (a) everyone’s happiness is equally important, and (b) a dollar is worth more to a poor man than a rich one. In a world of high- and low-wage countries that means either (a) protectionism or (b) income redistribution (or a combination of both). In the realm of immigration, bio-cultural differences come into play, which further restricts the menu of choices.
I just don't think you can get away with taking race into account explicitly, as Steve spitballs here. That said, I don't see why we shouldn't be able take crime rates by nationality into account when considering potential immigrants, which will have similar results.
Now if you are just restricting the pool to citizens this runs into the Democrats strategy of importing an electorate. Unless you are willing to deport people who are born here your ideals will break down by the 2040s at the latest.Replies: @Luke Lea
1) Racial information is statistical information.
2) Statistical information should never be taken as indefeasible in making life-altering decisions about individuals.
Ergo:
C) Racial information should never be taken as indefeasible in making life-altering decisions about individuals.
(I take it, in theory and in practice, that racial information is often extremely useful. But it is nonetheless statistical.)
It’s my [conjectural] daughter. She’s wearing an H&K USP, and she has a Thingmeistered Hi-Point in the same caliber under the driver’s seat with three pre-loaded high-capacity assault magazines that don’t have pictures. She’ll be fine unless your boys roll three digits deep.
Ah, repurposed. That explains the sentence that abruptly cuts off in the middle.
For an example of income redistribution see here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WIdVnQEWdYgYYly9iKkesWCVhfINvbtwuVq2GMOxMbw/edit?usp=sharing
On the other hand, what if COMPAS were to use questions to tease out race, such as “Does the prisoner like grape soda?” (I don’t know if it is true anymore, but when I was in MBA school in the early 1980s, it was a Marketing Research Fun Fact that African Americans liked grape soda more than other groups did.)
Alternative questions:
1) Does the prisoner like cheetos with his grape soda?
1) Has the prisoner ever eaten Argo laundry starch?
2) Has the prisoner ever hosted a children’s birthday party at Chuck-e-Cheese?
This is actually a great argument for “getting on with it” and gathering the genetic data.
What we’d like to avoid is to be tarring the black guy with the “black brush” as a likely repeat offender if in fact he is not. (And conversely cutting the Asian guy slack if it’s undeserved.) To that end it helps to dig out the genes that are involved and test them directly.
For example–the one everyone here has heard of–there are a bunch of low-activity forms of the MAOA gene, that produce less of MAO-A enzyme. Some studies show, the 3R (three repeats in promoter) is associated with anti-social behavior and the 2R highly correlated with serious violent activity. Some 5% of blacks are 2R, but only 0.1% of whites and it’s basically non-existant in East Asians. (Wikipedia data). If we collect this genetic data for criminals and find the correlation. Then we can directly take the data into account for potential parolees and not tar some random black guy as “more likely” simply beause of the crimes of 2R fellow blacks.
Obviously this one gene isn’t the deal. There are a whole suite of them involving IQ, conscientiousness, extraversion, time-preference, testosterone, aggression, etc. etc. But the point is lets make the recidivism prediction based on what their actual profile–including genetic profile–suggests not just tar them based on the jackassery level of their race.
In other words, “holistic” recidivism profiling.
* Racial Adjustment -- (12 months)/(1.5x) = 8 months.
* Thus, the sentence of a 100% Black felon would be reduced by 4 months.
* Mr. Doe gets 75% of this benefit, or a 3 month reduction.
* Thus, Mr. Doe must serve (12 months) - (3 months) = 9 months.One potential objection is that reduction of sentence doesn't compensate for the number of convictions. In that case, after conviction, black felons could be given the chance for a reversal on appeal (records expunged), with the odds of success determined as above. For example, John Doe's chance for walking would be (1 - (9 months)/(12 months)), or 25%.Replies: @ic1000, @Twodees Partain
NB, the plan at #31 above can serve the cause of social justice by being applied to lower-conviction-rate groups. For instance, the sentence for an ethnically Han Chinese citizen convicted of murder could be increased in the post-sentencing phase. Alternately, instead of releasing black felons, white/Asian/Ashkenazi/etc. ones could be created, using The Hunger Games as a how-to manual.
Agreed in general. In criminal justice policy, the way to do this specifically is to raise punishments to the point where they lower the crime rates of the worst offending group to a tolerable level. So, even if the average Chinese American crook is less of a recidivism risk than the average African American one, you assume everyone has AA recidivism rates and have tough-on-crime policies like three strikes.
I just don’t think you can get away with taking race into account explicitly, as Steve spitballs here. That said, I don’t see why we shouldn’t be able take crime rates by nationality into account when considering potential immigrants, which will have similar results.
O/T
Jack Posobiec, worthless grifter, has been destroyed.
—
Also, new to me, Vice Media pays people to demonize the right-wing as a full time job.
https://twitter.com/realTanyaTay/status/956294029418942464Replies: @Maj. Kong, @Anonymous
There’s one huge problem I’ve never seen pointed out in even the best critiques of ProPublica’s COMPAS analysis: the data the model is based on are presumably drawn from nationwide crime statistics, but the article tested the results against only one county in Florida. There’s no reason to assume the characteristics that predict recidivism for people belonging to a particular race in one county are distributed identically with people of that race across the nation as a whole. The model could be perfectly calibrated nationwide according to some criterion but still appear to be biased against blacks in some areas, and against whites in others. (Although of course you could train a model on finer-grained data including geographic labels.)
That is to say, I found the article to be quite racist in assuming that all black people are alike.
Are computers turning into bigots? Machines that learn to think for themselves are revolutionising the workplace. But there’s growing evidence they are acquiring racial and class prejudices too
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5310031/Evidence-robots-acquiring-racial-class-prejudices.html#ixzz55Aftk1Pr
‘Fired because we’re white’: Two cameramen claim The Tonight Show’s Questlove had them fired for receiving an unsolicited racist text but a black staffer who got the same message kept their job
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5309989/Tonight-staffers-fired-receiving-racist-text.html
Ironically, blind people probably have a lot of biases which may be less prevalent in the sighted.
The desire to avoid judging by appearance is often so idealized that it transcends moderation and approaches the adsurb. To take one example: at my last jury duty, the accused had tattoos. In response, one guy said cops have tattoos. Yes, but not on their fingers. It was a DWI offense and the guy was a serious lightweight. Yet, I was the only juror present who even acknowledged the fact.
Philippe Lemoine gave a great explanation of the statistical value of protected class information even when all other observed variables are equal between two individuals: https://necpluribusimpar.net/politically-incorrect-guide-affirmative-action/
https://twitter.com/nathanTbernard/status/956257673359568896
Jack Posobiec, worthless grifter, has been destroyed.
---
Also, new to me, Vice Media pays people to demonize the right-wing as a full time job.Replies: @Dave Pinsen, @eah
His wife (TayTay?) seems to disagree with your assessment.
I would rather wait and see if Posobiec goes to court, but I can't stand his grifting nature and an inability to deliver. At least James O'Keefe and Mike Cernovich actually produce, despite their well known ethics issues. Of course, I'd rather the Right be rid of all the grifters.
Roy Moore had and has the chance to sue his accusers in court. He has not done so. People will draw conclusions about his character from his actions. They will do the same for Jack.
https://twitter.com/RichardBSpencer/status/876564807142572032
Another concern would be: Is there a differential amount of time /severity of sentence proportional to the odds of changing future behavior between different racial groups? For instance, perhaps short jail sentences are devastating to soft white middle class employed males, but no deterrent at all to inner city underclass blacks who can fight, and have nothing else much to do anyway. The latter may be deterred substantially, though, by the prospect of hard time in a cracker state prison hundreds of miles away where there are no conjugal visits allowed and tough rural guards make ‘thug life’ unpleasant, keeping them incommunicado from their homies and effectively controlling drugs, pruno and cell phones.
Thirty days in the local clink combined with a fine, and a period of monitoring and random dope and alcohol tests may effectively deter the first guy, whereas it may take a two year stretch to have much impact on the second.
Is it fair? Well, that’s not my call. But that is probably the reality, fair or othrwise.
There have already been rumblings from activists to take the body cams back off the police. Apparently the videos are generally showing that the police are more or less justified in the way they have been handling suspects because Black people are in fact more likely to Michael Brown it up. So far it seems anecdotal so we’ll have to see if real data supports that. Of course if it does there is going to be lot of pressure from activists to suppress results that contradict their narrative.
A few years ago the New Jersey highway patrol was forced to apologize to the Black community for issuing a disproportionate number of speeding tickets to Blacks, and institute a program to study the problem and make reforms. As part of the reforms they studied driver activity using automatic cameras and radar, and discovered that Blacks were in fact disproportionately speeding, and the ticketing rates simply reflected it. The disparity actually increased as speeds over the limit increased. The study nevertheless had no effect on the Highway Patrol being forced to make “reforms” anyway.
July 9, 2017
SAN FRANCISCO (KPIX) — In the last three months, there have been at least three robberies on Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) involving groups of teenagers.
“I think people are genuinely concerned — they are fearful about the stories that have come out about the recent attacks, the assaults, the thefts,” said Debora Allen, who is a member of the BART Board of Directors.
So far, BART has refused to turn over surveillance video for any of these incidents.
“To release these videos would create a high level of racially insensitive commentary toward the district. And in addition it would create a racial bias in the riders against minorities on the trains.” The memo was from BART Assistant General Manager Kerry Hamill.
Allen emailed Hamill, “I don’t understand what role the color of one’s skin plays in this issue [of whether to divulge information]. Can you explain?” She says all this raises questions, “What is the priority of BART? Is the safety of the passenger — of all passengers — is that a lesser priority than the race bias issue?”Replies: @ScarletNumber
https://twitter.com/realTanyaTay/status/956294029418942464Replies: @Maj. Kong, @Anonymous
They’ve got no shortage of media orgs they can file a lawsuit against, and the media has acted with “actual malice”. Truth, however, is a defense against a libel tort. Not to mention that he could claim that Bumble, a rather well-funded startup, is defaming him.
I would rather wait and see if Posobiec goes to court, but I can’t stand his grifting nature and an inability to deliver. At least James O’Keefe and Mike Cernovich actually produce, despite their well known ethics issues. Of course, I’d rather the Right be rid of all the grifters.
Roy Moore had and has the chance to sue his accusers in court. He has not done so. People will draw conclusions about his character from his actions. They will do the same for Jack.
If the po-leese grab up a brother for questioning, and he asks them for a pack of nabs and a grape soda, and they bring him a moon pie and a RC, then is the brother's several rights done been violated?Replies: @MEH 0910, @Forbes, @Achmed E. Newman
I had to look up “pack of nabs”. Thank you for increasing my vocabulary.
It already has in CA when Brown changed various felonies into misdemeanors because the older felony charges resulted in too many Blacks being incarcerated. Now they are loose and free to commit more crimes.
Paul Kersey talks about it in his youtube videos.
I fully expect this to go nationwide in time.
La Griffe du Lion made pretty much the same point, albeit more concisely and less philosophically than Philippe. But it’s a waste of words in both cases, IMO, for two reasons:
1) ~95% of Americans won’t grok it.
2) I think most of us would be fine if either A or B got hired for the math-intensive job, provided they both had the same math SAT score. The difference between their abilities is going to be so much smaller than it would be given the usual impact of preferences that it’s not worth alienating ~95% of the population about it.
the more interesting question is whether repeat violent offenders should lose citizenship and face deportation. that’s something I support
It's interesting how the "Asian-American" in the beginning of the paragraph --
https://www.google.com/search?tbm=isch&q=chechen#imgrc=jRR42PrbOKw2uM: --
has by the end of the paragraph become an "Indian"
https://images.angelpub.com/2015/39/33510/indiagoldscheme.jpgReplies: @PiltdownMan
That happy looking Indian guy, a money lender, was, sadly, beaten to death.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36804209
I squandered the last half of the 199o’s and my own late 30’s drinking and playing pool in dive bars. Few regrets. This is a bad movie script. The first rule of bar life is that no one calls the cops. Two or three cop calls in a row and the bar owner’s liquor license will be revoked. Bartender have strong social IQs. They will give any customer a first drink and maybe a second. Come the third, not so easy. This situation was very improbable back then.
So this is 2018 last time I checked. It is very hard to find a bar with an active pool table anymore. So now we have a pool table, an Asian, a flirty girl, a white guy, a black guy, and some pool stick clubbing. Really?
There are two different issues of policy being conflated here. One is justice – crime and punishment – in specific, individual cases. The other is maintenance of social order, that is, crime prevention in general.
In the latter case, it is scientifically valid (efficacious) and morally defensible to use larger statistical data to enact policies to discourage lawbreaking. And, indeed, our society does. For example, blacks, in general, commit much higher rates of crime than Asians, Hispanics, or whites do, and therefore areas with large numbers of blacks receive proportionately much greater police attention. Various jurisdictions try to hide this or dress it up prettily (or occasionally go mad/too “politically correct” and not do it), but it is done, by and large. It has to be if anyone is serious about reducing crime.
In the former case – that of justice, one should keep in mind that, despite general trends of a large demographic group, there is a great deal of disparity within it. In other words, while blacks account for a far larger share of crimes than other ethno-racial groups do, most blacks are, in fact, law-abiding. It’s just that their share of the not-so-law-abiding is much bigger than those of other groups. So it is grossly unfair in the moral sense AND inefficacious to use aggregate data to make judgments about individuals whose tendencies may be at great odds with the general trends, to which the said individuals belong. Simply put, group trends predict group behavior; they don’t predict individual behavior (it’s for the same dynamic that most people don’t respond to direct mail, but a predictable percentage does and generate profits for direct mailers).
When we discuss justice, we are not dealing with society-wide issues (that’s the domain of the so-called social justice warriors). Instead, we are dealing with INDIVIDUAL crimes and punishments. To the extent that criminal sanctions are used to punish wrongdoing, identical crimes in similar situations ought to be punished the same way regardless of race or demographic data. To the extent that punishment is used to make an example, that is, deter future crimes by the same persons or to discourage others, the SPECIFIC circumstances of the offenders in question should play a large role. And, again, our society operates this way – repeat offenders, regardless of race, are treated much more harshly (and skeptically) than first time offenders.
Crime is a highly charged emotional issue, because it impacts powerfully on not just the actual victims, but the fears of the populace at large. It is, therefore, too easy to want to do something, anything to prevent it. This is the same impulse that leads to calls for gun control every time someone criminal/insane shoots up a crowd. But we have to fight this impulse, because giving into this impulse erodes freedom and, thus, (voluntary) virtue, without which society becomes a depressing, oppressive, and gray place.
We don’t and shouldn’t punish individuals for what groups (e.g. blacks, men, youths, the poor to name the more criminally prone) do. We should punish – and harshly when warranted – individuals for what THEY do, period.
https://twitter.com/nathanTbernard/status/956257673359568896
Jack Posobiec, worthless grifter, has been destroyed.
---
Also, new to me, Vice Media pays people to demonize the right-wing as a full time job.Replies: @Dave Pinsen, @eah
It isn’t really off-topic.
bias and discrimination in artificial intelligence
Obviously the untoward application of (some people’s) ‘natural intelligence’, backed by virtually the entire Establishment (‘it’s OK to punch a Nazi’), is a far greater problem/threat today.
Just so it is clear:
We live in a world where Whites’ free speech is censored by “hate speech” regulations…And “hate speech” regulations protect everyone except Whites from criticism…Anti-censorship legislation is the only way forward.
Dissident movements always attract those that don't fit in with mainstream society, some of them go off half-cocked. If we don't police our own, the police state will do it for us.
I am not offended that the ADLsplc are trying to squelch us, I am glad. If they weren't trying to stop us, it would mean we are having no effect.
The left is going to ban us from every institution it can, because they seek nothing less than to blur us out of existence. We don't need their consumerism, it is time for parallel instituions.Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson
Since then the public treatment of numerous nonwhite conservatives has only confirmed this fact. Not being a white is NOT an inoculation against leftist victimization. In fact, one is often viewed as a deranged person or a contemptible traitor by those on the left who assume that all nonwhites should be their “allies.” It’s sad to see that those on alt-right agree with this demented view.Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Kokusen'ya, @Kokusen'ya
The logical progression of our rhetoric leads to calls for using the police power of the state to commit violence against the invaders. It should not be a surprise that liberals are afraid, they’ve been trying to starve out Steve for a decade.
Dissident movements always attract those that don’t fit in with mainstream society, some of them go off half-cocked. If we don’t police our own, the police state will do it for us.
I am not offended that the ADLsplc are trying to squelch us, I am glad. If they weren’t trying to stop us, it would mean we are having no effect.
The left is going to ban us from every institution it can, because they seek nothing less than to blur us out of existence. We don’t need their consumerism, it is time for parallel instituions.
We do not have unlimited capital. Prudence seems like a harsh mistress, but she repays careful investment with compound interest.
Well, we could use the policy that would reduce crime. Or we can use the policy that lets us morally preen while increasing the amount of crime black people suffer. The second one is considered the moral and fair option because it appears people are cartoonishly evil.
Jefferson owned slaves; he was referring to the principle of divine right, not egalitarianism.
They are in a democracy; people compete for status and certain racial differences are considered low status so the racial groups that have them will work tirelessly to have discussion of them suppressed, even if that harms their group and society as a whole.
That would mean the optimal policy is exporting all our industry to China (since they are significantly poorer then us), a plan that is sort of terrible if the Chinese ever decide to go to war with the United States.
Now if you are just restricting the pool to citizens this runs into the Democrats strategy of importing an electorate. Unless you are willing to deport people who are born here your ideals will break down by the 2040s at the latest.
No, protectionism would be justified in that situation. Interestingly, Adam Smith did not support direct foreign investment for precisely that reason.
Say your model includes things that race may be related to such as education, income, neighborhood where you live, prior criminal record etc, then your model will detect the effect of race through these other variables.
There is another more philosophical problem as well. Predictive models use "training data" to learn the relationship between the output variable (in this case, recidivism risk) and the input variables. Each data point in the training set is the record of an individual person, crucially not the persons the model is being used on. This means that any decision regarding an individual made using the model necessary reflect crimes other people committed . Basically, guilt by statistical association.Replies: @academic gossip, @AnotherDad
There are Math SJW pushing that line, but it’s a fake non-issue used for distraction. People like Cathy O’Neil are trying to make careers out of that type of nonsense.
The model does not “detect” forbidden data like race. Its inputs and output happen to correlate with race in various ways, but those are facts about the world and not problems with the algorithm.
The entire judicial system is based on rules and patterns derived from a zillion past cases. AI is no different in that respect.
There may be an ethical problem with refusing to use race, if doing so significantly degrades the performance of algorithms used in important decisions.
A few years ago the New Jersey highway patrol was forced to apologize to the Black community for issuing a disproportionate number of speeding tickets to Blacks, and institute a program to study the problem and make reforms. As part of the reforms they studied driver activity using automatic cameras and radar, and discovered that Blacks were in fact disproportionately speeding, and the ticketing rates simply reflected it. The disparity actually increased as speeds over the limit increased. The study nevertheless had no effect on the Highway Patrol being forced to make “reforms” anyway.Replies: @CCZ, @Anonymous
BART Withholding Surveillance Videos Of Crime To Avoid ‘Stereotypes’
July 9, 2017
SAN FRANCISCO (KPIX) — In the last three months, there have been at least three robberies on Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) involving groups of teenagers.
“I think people are genuinely concerned — they are fearful about the stories that have come out about the recent attacks, the assaults, the thefts,” said Debora Allen, who is a member of the BART Board of Directors.
So far, BART has refused to turn over surveillance video for any of these incidents.
“To release these videos would create a high level of racially insensitive commentary toward the district. And in addition it would create a racial bias in the riders against minorities on the trains.” The memo was from BART Assistant General Manager Kerry Hamill.
Allen emailed Hamill, “I don’t understand what role the color of one’s skin plays in this issue [of whether to divulge information]. Can you explain?” She says all this raises questions, “What is the priority of BART? Is the safety of the passenger — of all passengers — is that a lesser priority than the race bias issue?”
The conundrums aren’t as tough when determining whether AI makes the decisions fairly, because the statistical patterns of group behavior (who is more violent, etc) don’t necessarily hold given the information in the criminal record.
For example, N.E. Asians have lower violent crime rates than blacks, so an Asian who commits a given violent crime might be more abnormal than a black who did the same crime. Asians also have higher income and education and safer neighborhoods, so by the same reasoning, if all those socioeconomic variables (plus crime committed) are held constant, it could be that Asians have a higher rate of recidivism than blacks, because a lot more has had to go wrong to reach the same set of data used in the prediction.
In the latter case, it is scientifically valid (efficacious) and morally defensible to use larger statistical data to enact policies to discourage lawbreaking. And, indeed, our society does. For example, blacks, in general, commit much higher rates of crime than Asians, Hispanics, or whites do, and therefore areas with large numbers of blacks receive proportionately much greater police attention. Various jurisdictions try to hide this or dress it up prettily (or occasionally go mad/too "politically correct" and not do it), but it is done, by and large. It has to be if anyone is serious about reducing crime.
In the former case - that of justice, one should keep in mind that, despite general trends of a large demographic group, there is a great deal of disparity within it. In other words, while blacks account for a far larger share of crimes than other ethno-racial groups do, most blacks are, in fact, law-abiding. It's just that their share of the not-so-law-abiding is much bigger than those of other groups. So it is grossly unfair in the moral sense AND inefficacious to use aggregate data to make judgments about individuals whose tendencies may be at great odds with the general trends, to which the said individuals belong. Simply put, group trends predict group behavior; they don't predict individual behavior (it's for the same dynamic that most people don't respond to direct mail, but a predictable percentage does and generate profits for direct mailers).
When we discuss justice, we are not dealing with society-wide issues (that's the domain of the so-called social justice warriors). Instead, we are dealing with INDIVIDUAL crimes and punishments. To the extent that criminal sanctions are used to punish wrongdoing, identical crimes in similar situations ought to be punished the same way regardless of race or demographic data. To the extent that punishment is used to make an example, that is, deter future crimes by the same persons or to discourage others, the SPECIFIC circumstances of the offenders in question should play a large role. And, again, our society operates this way - repeat offenders, regardless of race, are treated much more harshly (and skeptically) than first time offenders.
Crime is a highly charged emotional issue, because it impacts powerfully on not just the actual victims, but the fears of the populace at large. It is, therefore, too easy to want to do something, anything to prevent it. This is the same impulse that leads to calls for gun control every time someone criminal/insane shoots up a crowd. But we have to fight this impulse, because giving into this impulse erodes freedom and, thus, (voluntary) virtue, without which society becomes a depressing, oppressive, and gray place.
We don't and shouldn't punish individuals for what groups (e.g. blacks, men, youths, the poor to name the more criminally prone) do. We should punish - and harshly when warranted - individuals for what THEY do, period.Replies: @academic gossip
The trouble is if probability of recidivism (used in sentencing), is much better predicted by using the SES factors (income, education, family status, etc) in addition to the individual’s own actions. Judges have always taken those “demographic” data into account informally or even subconsciously so it’s not clear why an algorithm shouldn’t be used that does so explicitly.
It’s true that prediction is better with more information, but Lemoine’s explanation of what conclusions to draw from math test scores is wrong for (more realistic) multivariate models of the scores and abilities. The woman with the same test score as the man could be higher or lower in expected ability. It depends on the relative importance (for total ability) of the sub-abilities that are differently distributed in men and women, and contributed to the score.
For one-variable models he is correct since it amounts to saying that the effect of noisy measurement is to cover up for differences in ability distributions; therefore compensate in the direction of any known difference.
Your intuition is correct, and it has recently been re-affirmed by the Supreme Court in the 2017 case of Buck v. Davis:
There are dozens on Supreme Court cases saying the same thing. Any proposal to use race as any kind of factor in criminal sentencing would be immediately struck down by literally every court in America.
I am obviously against these stupid, evil “hate speech” regulations, but I also find Nehlen’s claim that only whites are victimized so much rabble-rousing demagoguery. I know firsthand that nonwhites can be victimized just as easily, and sometimes even more harshly, for heterodox views. I learned that decades ago when I was told privately by my then department chairman that due to my views, I would not be a good fit and that I would not be offered tenure. Back then I was still very naive about the ideological orientation of academia, and this was quite a shock.
Since then the public treatment of numerous nonwhite conservatives has only confirmed this fact. Not being a white is NOT an inoculation against leftist victimization. In fact, one is often viewed as a deranged person or a contemptible traitor by those on the left who assume that all nonwhites should be their “allies.” It’s sad to see that those on alt-right agree with this demented view.
I was only in academia (college) half a decade ago, but experienced similar prejudices as a traditionalist non-white. I’ve also interacted with a number of Alt-Right figures in the past (before they became Alt-Right), and they similarly assumed that Asians _should_ have a set of predefined beliefs and acted rather belligerently when they deviated from the script.
To be fair, Asian-Americans have proven themselves to be perfect lapdogs of the progressives. I have not researched this topic in depth but my intuition is that, in spite of whatever assimilation might have occurred, strands of holdover Confucian mentality still exist within many Asian-Americans, and it subconsciously informs the blind, sycophantic obedience they have towards their perceived “social betters”, in this case white progressives and their cute little theory of intersectionality.
Asian Hack:
Free-Thinking Asian:
Replies: @Twinkie
I was only in academia (college) half a decade ago, but experienced similar prejudices as a traditionalist non-white. I’ve also interacted with a number of Alt-Right figures in the past (before they became Alt-Right), and they similarly assumed that Asians _should_ have a set of predefined beliefs and acted rather belligerently when I deviated from the script.
To be fair, Asian-Americans have proven themselves to be perfect lapdogs of the progressives. I have not researched this topic in depth but my intuition is that, in spite of whatever assimilation might have occurred, strands of holdover Confucian mentality still exist within many Asian-Americans, and it subconsciously informs the blind, sycophantic obedience they have towards their perceived “social betters”, in this case white progressives and their cute little theory of intersectionality.
Asian Hack:
Free-Thinking Asian:
Replies: @Kokusen'ya
Lady Justice is blindfolded because she is being held hostage by the Criminal Elite who run the place.
Sentencing this black man differently would be a rank injustice, and social engineering.
As for my hypothetical daughter avoiding blacks in favor of Laotians, that is a matter of practicality, not justice.Replies: @Rosie
I couldn’t disagree more. I think the only way to achieve equal punishment is to give Whites lesser sentences for the same offense. A black who goes to prison is in the majority, while a White is in a small minority, and is therefore going to be doing harder time throughout. I actually wonder if judges do in fact go a little easier on White defendants because of this. I also believe White jurors would be totally justified in refusing to convict any White defendant unless and until prisons are resegregated.
https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/prison/index.htm
https://youtu.be/GsNnL5PQ-qM
Believe it not, the "booty warrior" above was released! Apparently, rape in prison is not a crime.
https://www.theroot.com/fleece-johnson-aka-booty-warrior-to-be-released-fro-1790860961
One of seven errors in the piece. Oh well, time pressure and all that.
She should get sterilized because she’s too stupid to procreate. If you don’t carry a phone charger in your car, 1) stay out of bad neighborhoods or 2) don’t let your phone battery run down or 3) carry a spare battery or 4) ANY of the above.
The problem with this sort of prescription is that we only dare apply it to white people. Still, spare a thought for the thousand generations before yours, not a one of which had cell phones at all.
I still have absolutely no idea why Dave Chappelle is so popular. Only now I also have two fewer minutes left in my life.
Even on his claim to fame, his day-to-day perspective has a covert tinge of "whiteness" (white writers, white costars, crypto-virtue signalling) unpossessed by his urban contemporaries (Rock, Hart, Burress, et. al.) Bill Burr and Louis C.K. may have written for all of them, but only Chappell was willing to be seen on screen with white people as equals (in both manners: whites and blacks being portrayed as equally moral/amoral as necessary). If he wasn't a slave to the Narrative, he wouldn't have suffered his purported breakdown.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5309989/Tonight-staffers-fired-receiving-racist-text.htmlReplies: @Anonymous
You can lose your job for receiving a racist text message now. Good to know. How does the law read, or is there no relevant statute.
https://twitter.com/realTanyaTay/status/956294029418942464Replies: @Maj. Kong, @Anonymous
Her endless mugging for the camera and boasting about her ring tends to attenuate any sympathy I might have felt for her otherwise. I’m also sorry that I even know about her.
A few years ago the New Jersey highway patrol was forced to apologize to the Black community for issuing a disproportionate number of speeding tickets to Blacks, and institute a program to study the problem and make reforms. As part of the reforms they studied driver activity using automatic cameras and radar, and discovered that Blacks were in fact disproportionately speeding, and the ticketing rates simply reflected it. The disparity actually increased as speeds over the limit increased. The study nevertheless had no effect on the Highway Patrol being forced to make “reforms” anyway.Replies: @CCZ, @Anonymous
Back before vehicles were all monster SUVs with black glass windows, I used to have a regular highway commute. The vast majority of drivers who passed me at wildly illegal speeds were of the African persuasion.
So even then this DWB narrative failed to persuade. But you can be sure that each and every one who was ever pulled over felt unfairly persecuted. The MSM told him so.
It seems grossly unjust to consider race as such.
If an individual is actually inclined to reoffend regularly, his past habits will reflect that.
The classic case of “three or four young black men dressed like gangstas in a rental car on the NJ Turnpike” may make statistical sense; “black man in a car” doesn’t.
Anglo-American jurisprudence is separated by more than a hyphen. America was historically more diverse and violent than England, and our jurisprudence historically allowed cops some leeway in exercising their own judgement about who Didn’t Belong Around Here, and acting on it. The country was safer then, net — probably for literally everybody, overall, even taking into account abusive and unaccountable local cops who didn’t learn their jobs from Andy Griffith.
You can’t do any that now, of course; localism is dead.
No, come on. Of course that would be unjust. I guess we're all at various points along the HBD-realist line, depending upon our own minds and our own experiences, but ... yeah, I think I missed my station a few minutes ago.Replies: @The Z Blog
Unjust to whom? If longer sentences for Group A ,versus Group B, reduces overall crime, thus reducing the number of crime victims, where is the injustice?
Forget about race, why should ANY non-causal behaviors be considered by COMPAS? Is it really fair for, say, my preference for grape soda to affect my parole? How about the city where I come from? Or even my gender, for that matter?
“Risk of re-offending” is a fair concern but only based on past CRIMINAL behavior. Just putting an ankle bracelet on all males at birth might reduce crime a lot but we don’t care, that wouldn’t be considered fair by ANY Americans.
It doesn’t seem that hard to limit the set of factors that go into COMPAS. Race is a distraction, a whole bunch of innocuous behaviors simply shouldn’t be factors AT ALL and that argument can be made without ever referencing race.
” Should race be considered in prison sentences”
In Germany it already is, as recently a middle-eastern person was sentenced to a lesser sentence due to the “fact” that he is, as according to his ethnic background, “sensitive” to incarceration, as if not everyone else is.
Germany the lunatic center of the universe, and the gift of insanity which never stops giving.
Authenticjazzman “Mensa” qualified since 1973, airborne trained US Army vet, and pro jazz musician.
PS : I am aware that “race” and “ethnical” background are two different elements.
“Risk of re-offending” is a fair concern but only based on past CRIMINAL behavior. Just putting an ankle bracelet on all males at birth might reduce crime a lot but we don’t care, that wouldn’t be considered fair by ANY Americans.
It doesn’t seem that hard to limit the set of factors that go into COMPAS. Race is a distraction, a whole bunch of innocuous behaviors simply shouldn’t be factors AT ALL and that argument can be made without ever referencing race.Replies: @Vinay
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2702103-Sample-Risk-Assessment-COMPAS-CORE.html
Here’s a questionnaire with some of the more problematic questions highlighted. For example, it doesn’t seem like your parents divorce or your decision to move houses should be considered as a factor in a parole decision.
If you make a utilitarian argument that taking out those factors would increase crime by parolees, then consider gender. Would it be fair to use gender as a factor favoring women prisoners? Sure, women are less likely to be criminals but that’s already accounted for by much less likelihood of ending up in prison in the first place.
It may be problematic to hold sex-offenders past their release date but at least it’s based directly on their actual criminal behavior.
If the po-leese grab up a brother for questioning, and he asks them for a pack of nabs and a grape soda, and they bring him a moon pie and a RC, then is the brother's several rights done been violated?Replies: @MEH 0910, @Forbes, @Achmed E. Newman
It depends. Is the Moon in the Seventh House, has Jupiter aligned with Mars?
https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/prison/index.htmReplies: @AndrewR, @BB753, @27 year old
It would defend on a lot of factors. Blacks in a Vermont or Maine prison would be vastly outnumbered by whites. In a Louisiana prison it would certainly be the opposite.
Yes. Whites do not need as long of sentences as blacks. And Whites are more amenable to “rehabilitation”. Most Whites probably commit violent crime over a girl in one way or another. It’s not clear that a White dude who took a machete to his cheating wife is a danger to society at large. He was dangerous to her, after she betrayed him. But, to a random stranger off the street, he’s probably no threat. Contrast with blacks who frequently do violent crime against random strangers off the street purely for their own amusement.
The threat of prison (really, even just an arrest and a charge can be nearly as bad as a conviction) is very effective at keeping Whites in line. But prison obviously has little to no deterring effect on black crime. It is ridiculous (I.e. deliberately hostile against us) that sentencing does not reflect this blatant fact.
Whites should get shorter sentences and greater opportunities for training, education and parole.
Apparently young black kids will sacrifice everything if necessary for the attainment of these hallowed titles : Bad and Bad Mo Fo, as these precious titles also represent the ultimate of anti-white, of non-whiteness.
I grew up in Detroit and and I was raised by a (wonderful) black lady, I KNOW what I am talking about.
Authenticjazzman "Mensa" qualified since 1973, airborne trained US army vet, and pro jazz musician.
https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/prison/index.htmReplies: @AndrewR, @BB753, @27 year old
This is the kind of black gentleman you’re bound to meet in prison.
Believe it not, the “booty warrior” above was released! Apparently, rape in prison is not a crime.
https://www.theroot.com/fleece-johnson-aka-booty-warrior-to-be-released-fro-1790860961
Dissident movements always attract those that don't fit in with mainstream society, some of them go off half-cocked. If we don't police our own, the police state will do it for us.
I am not offended that the ADLsplc are trying to squelch us, I am glad. If they weren't trying to stop us, it would mean we are having no effect.
The left is going to ban us from every institution it can, because they seek nothing less than to blur us out of existence. We don't need their consumerism, it is time for parallel instituions.Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson
I have often thought this, but maybe it isn’t a requirement. The Left mostly co-opted existing institutions and corrupted them, instead of creating new ones. And Trump took a corrupt Republican Party and re-purposed it. Trump could not have won using a 3rd party.
We do not have unlimited capital. Prudence seems like a harsh mistress, but she repays careful investment with compound interest.
at 4chan from a tweet by Paul Sperry:
Senator Grassley has confirmed on the floor of the Capitol and read into the Congressional record that the Fusion GPS "dossier" (which was the evidentiary basis for the FISA wiretapping) was unverified in 2016 and therefore not good enough to justify the wiretaps.
All the wheels are coming off and none are stamped "Russian Federation."
An anon follows this with:Replies: @Twodees Partain
Here’s more on that:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/24/report-doj-has-found-and-is-recovering-missing-fbi-text-messages/
* Racial Adjustment -- (12 months)/(1.5x) = 8 months.
* Thus, the sentence of a 100% Black felon would be reduced by 4 months.
* Mr. Doe gets 75% of this benefit, or a 3 month reduction.
* Thus, Mr. Doe must serve (12 months) - (3 months) = 9 months.One potential objection is that reduction of sentence doesn't compensate for the number of convictions. In that case, after conviction, black felons could be given the chance for a reversal on appeal (records expunged), with the odds of success determined as above. For example, John Doe's chance for walking would be (1 - (9 months)/(12 months)), or 25%.Replies: @ic1000, @Twodees Partain
“* Racial Adjustment — (12 months)/(1.5x) = 8 months.”
Shouldn’t that read 18 months?
No, the problem is that the black presence in prison is disparately high. Contra Steve, my proposal is to use race-based sentencing as a way to justly bring the percentage of blacks in prison down to their proportion of the population. So, either reduce sentence times or institute a lottery so that fewer are sent away after conviction.
Nobody ever claimed that fighting racism would be easy.
Nice to posit two guys with no record. In reality, this is rare. The purpose of police with respect to “youth” is to paper them, make them known to the system. The website Charleston Thug Life had amazingly long lists of priors on violent offenders going in and out of the system, usually sentences of time-served, obviously soft judges, but otherwise every prison would be overflowing without this non-hypothetical disparity.
Anyone know what happened to CTL? Only traces seem to remain.
You’re a bore.
The grape drink. I’ve noticed that the folks of color also enjoy Dr.Pepper( Mr.Pibb for you west coasters). And what’s with the mentholated cigarettes? The beginning of the month it’s Newports, middle of the month its Kool’s and just before the gov mails them the check towards the end…it’s buying GPC generic brand singles from an overweight vibrant with a diseased heart and we’ve a segway to what this article is really all about.
As the primary theme of my Red Ice interview, I address the “white guy” “bias” of “AI”:
In order to legitimately claim “bias” you need data to back up that claim — so by raising the question of “bias” you are begging the question. This question was theoretically answered by Solomonoff Induction as early as the mid-1960s and _practically_ by advances in machine learning, Moore’s Law and Big Data.
The thing people need to really fear is that people viewed as “experts” on “bias” are unaware of this.
Indeed, this has been known theoretically since the 1930s if one counts Harold Jeffrey’s work — so that was really plenty of time to work out practical applications far in advance of the recent practical technologies.
My working hypothesis is that authoritative desire to avoid the truth is at play here.
https://jimbowery.blogspot.com/2017/07/ockhams-guillotine.html
Yes, it’s a simplified model meant to elucidate a principle. Interestingly though, this model also implies that if a man and a woman both scored, say, a 450, you should expect the woman to be smarter. But I suppose shaking down employers for hiring practices on the left-hand side of the distribution is not as attractive of a racket.
Perhaps slightly off topic, but what is Larry Nassar’s ethnicity? I can’t find it Googling around.
Never OT:
The problem with AI and race is that AI software must be told what not to notice. The point of Op-Ed’s like the one noted is to ensure AI programmers and researchers remember to ignore what the data says in favor of The Truth.
If the po-leese grab up a brother for questioning, and he asks them for a pack of nabs and a grape soda, and they bring him a moon pie and a RC, then is the brother's several rights done been violated?Replies: @MEH 0910, @Forbes, @Achmed E. Newman
We just missed the 100th anniversity of the moon pie. I didn’t see a single post on iSteve about this – seems kind of negligent. For those Chinese rednecks reading here, it’s “moon pie”, not “moon cake”, get it straight, and tastes much better – don’t be a rube and get a lemon one either. You don’t have to wait for just one day of the year to have a moon PIE – Circle-K has got them 24/7/365-6 along with the usually associated yoohoos in chocolate and strawberry. You will be assimilated … or get diabetes, one.
(BTW, “nabs” was originally short for Nabiscos – didn’t know that for a long time.)
Whaddayagonnado?
AHAAA! SEE! That’s what I’ve been talking about.
To clarify for everyone, it was not an Oriental guy in that hypothetical story. BTW, in case you think an Oriental guy would be the least likely to beat anyone on the head with a pool cue, I know one example – yes, beer was involved.
The funny part was when we went into the same bar, which he had been banned from due to said incident, he thought for sure the bouncer would believe him when he said “No, that was my brother!” (How could the guy tell right? They all look (near) the same and all that). It didn’t take.
I’ve represented prisoners in parole proceedings where COMPAS assessments are at issue. In my experience they seem to be good indicators of whether someone will reoffend. If anything, they might be a little too generous to the inmate, and could probably be easily gamed by a sociopath with a relatively high IQ who had the ability to control himself by not getting into fights and answering the prison shrink’s questions correctly.
The bigger problem is that there are old men with pretty much perfect COMPAS scores who should get parole but don’t, at least if the inquiry is whether they’re likely to reoffend if released.
Hey, let’s do two thought experiments. After all, they have been acceptable substitutes for real science for approximately one century now:
1) You are in an elevator traveling through space at a constant acceleration of one g. You cannot distinguish between acceleration and gravity because you cannot see outside the elevator. As far as you can tell, you are standing on the floor in normal, everyday gravity.
You cannot tell why, but your above-average inductive reasoning tells you that you had better assume that your glass of champagne will fall to the floor at a rate of 32 feet-per-second-per-second and break if you drop it. (Because you are an iSteve reader, you have a superior IQ and you are traveling through space inside a first class elevator — and you are familiar with this Einstein thought experiment.)
Likewise, in our second, brand new thought experiment:
2) You are on a parole board. (You are a pillar of your community who travels first class, remember?). Half the convicts who come before you are black and half are Oriental. (Oh, excuse me, “Oriental” must now be translated as “East Asian.”). They are presented to you in their two groups, but you are blindfolded so that you cannot see them. You cannot hear them speak either. Their attorneys speak for them. You cannot tell anything about them.
What you do observe is that one group, over time, commits vastly more crimes than the other group. They are a more rapidly accelerating elevator, so to speak. Your iSteve superior reasoning (and the accompanying need to prove your smarts) leads you to conclude that members of one group are far more likely to become repeat offenders. You cannot tell why. They just will.
Are you going to just let go of your glass of champagne and let it drop to the floor and break? Are you going to deny what you know will happen, even if nobody will allow you to know or say why? You still know what will happen. You don’t have to know why.
In this way, Lady Justice can still keep her blindfold on. She doesn’t need to know anything about the guilty to make a logical judgement.
Again, this is just a though experiment. For mortal men, it would be best never to apply this insight to parole decisions. It’s just interesting to think about.
Chalk up one more vote against using race as a parole factor, regardless of logic and statistical facts. Just ride the elevator, drink your champagne and forget about it. Call it the cost of doing humane business.
The threat of prison (really, even just an arrest and a charge can be nearly as bad as a conviction) is very effective at keeping Whites in line. But prison obviously has little to no deterring effect on black crime. It is ridiculous (I.e. deliberately hostile against us) that sentencing does not reflect this blatant fact.
Whites should get shorter sentences and greater opportunities for training, education and parole.Replies: @Authenticjazzman
A totally overlooked or not even realized element of the equasion being : Amongst many young black kids, male and female the highest level of achievement is the attainment of the states of : BAD and BAD MO FO, bad mo being the crowning glory of endeavor.
Apparently young black kids will sacrifice everything if necessary for the attainment of these hallowed titles : Bad and Bad Mo Fo, as these precious titles also represent the ultimate of anti-white, of non-whiteness.
I grew up in Detroit and and I was raised by a (wonderful) black lady, I KNOW what I am talking about.
Authenticjazzman “Mensa” qualified since 1973, airborne trained US army vet, and pro jazz musician.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/24/report-doj-has-found-and-is-recovering-missing-fbi-text-messages/Replies: @J.Ross
Nice. Far from being isolated and overwhelmed, the God Emperor and Inspector General Horowitz have everything well in hand.
And I agree that the real issue is “some” – no doubt in my mind. Too, you must agree that in addition to “some”, you must have more
They really do perfectly encapsulate leftism, don’t they? Killing people while explaining to everyone why this makes them more moral then everyone else.
Say your model includes things that race may be related to such as education, income, neighborhood where you live, prior criminal record etc, then your model will detect the effect of race through these other variables.
There is another more philosophical problem as well. Predictive models use "training data" to learn the relationship between the output variable (in this case, recidivism risk) and the input variables. Each data point in the training set is the record of an individual person, crucially not the persons the model is being used on. This means that any decision regarding an individual made using the model necessary reflect crimes other people committed . Basically, guilt by statistical association.Replies: @academic gossip, @AnotherDad
Yawn. This is not a “philosophical problem” off any kind.
It’s the way most every predictive model works. Like using the SAT or your high school grades.
*You* have not actually been to college yet when the college makes a decision. You just might be that special snowflake that will knock Harvard out of the park and go on to entrepreneurial greatness with your crappy 650s. But Harvard figures … uh … no thanks. It’s the way every job interview works. Most medicine works. Heck most everything works… hey maybe you can eat that fruit everyone says is poison, you’re physiology hasn’t been tested yet!
I think the rough name for this “problem” is “knowledge”.
GTFO. That sh*t is funny, I don’t care who you are. I don’t care for his recent politics, but he is a comedic genius, especially around racial issues, but I expect a lot of his nuanced observations are less appreciated by anyone who hasn’t spent significant time living among other races, because the observations are keenest about somewhat subtle things like sugary drinks among kids and how they differ among races, but are only significant when those races are together as kids – which isn’t as common as the leftists and hippies may think….
He is certainly an odd bird - apparently he lives on some farm in Ohio, and is married to a Filipina (and has a mixed son). His one recent bit, though, was really moving - he described the whites who lined up to vote for Trump in his locality (the crowd was about to laugh and jeer at the mention) as, in fact, decent ordinary people. A brief, stunned pause followed, and some quick clapping. That was, well, slightly awkward to the people in attendance, I am sure.
I am glad to see that it's not all race with you.
https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/prison/index.htmReplies: @AndrewR, @BB753, @27 year old
Great call
It's the way most every predictive model works. Like using the SAT or your high school grades.
*You* have not actually been to college yet when the college makes a decision. You just might be that special snowflake that will knock Harvard out of the park and go on to entrepreneurial greatness with your crappy 650s. But Harvard figures ... uh ... no thanks. It's the way every job interview works. Most medicine works. Heck most everything works... hey maybe you can eat that fruit everyone says is poison, you're physiology hasn't been tested yet!
I think the rough name for this "problem" is "knowledge".Replies: @J.Ross
There is a universal pattern in elitist progressive thought: decision-making is magic, the discreet and withheld property of an initiated priesthood, and the laity are not even allowed to try to understand it.
Blacks refer to grape soda as "purpal drank" around here. But they typically report their favorite flavor of kool aide as "red".Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @ScarletNumber
I hate to break this to you, but purple drank generally refers to a cough syrup/soda cocktail.
The desire to avoid judging by appearance is often so idealized that it transcends moderation and approaches the adsurb. To take one example: at my last jury duty, the accused had tattoos. In response, one guy said cops have tattoos. Yes, but not on their fingers. It was a DWI offense and the guy was a serious lightweight. Yet, I was the only juror present who even acknowledged the fact.Replies: @ScarletNumber
What does having finger tattoos and DWI have to do with each other?
Do tattoos automatically mean guilty? Of course not! But they are not meaningless either. You have to weigh all the evidence. If a guy's testimony doesn't add up, and he has finger tattoos. He's probably lying. It's probably not the all the planets being in alignment.
July 9, 2017
SAN FRANCISCO (KPIX) — In the last three months, there have been at least three robberies on Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) involving groups of teenagers.
“I think people are genuinely concerned — they are fearful about the stories that have come out about the recent attacks, the assaults, the thefts,” said Debora Allen, who is a member of the BART Board of Directors.
So far, BART has refused to turn over surveillance video for any of these incidents.
“To release these videos would create a high level of racially insensitive commentary toward the district. And in addition it would create a racial bias in the riders against minorities on the trains.” The memo was from BART Assistant General Manager Kerry Hamill.
Allen emailed Hamill, “I don’t understand what role the color of one’s skin plays in this issue [of whether to divulge information]. Can you explain?” She says all this raises questions, “What is the priority of BART? Is the safety of the passenger — of all passengers — is that a lesser priority than the race bias issue?”Replies: @ScarletNumber
I’m with BART. There is no reason to release the tapes except to satisfy ghouls.
Shouldn't that read 18 months?Replies: @ic1000
> Shouldn’t that [12 month sentence turn into] 18 months?
No, the problem is that the black presence in prison is disparately high. Contra Steve, my proposal is to use race-based sentencing as a way to justly bring the percentage of blacks in prison down to their proportion of the population. So, either reduce sentence times or institute a lottery so that fewer are sent away after conviction.
Nobody ever claimed that fighting racism would be easy.
In all multiracial societies white women are preyed on by black men. By contrast, how often does one hear of a Japanese or Chinese guy raping a white woman?
Now if you are just restricting the pool to citizens this runs into the Democrats strategy of importing an electorate. Unless you are willing to deport people who are born here your ideals will break down by the 2040s at the latest.Replies: @Luke Lea
“That would mean the optimal policy is exporting all our industry to China (since they are significantly poorer then us), a plan that is sort of terrible if the Chinese ever decide to go to war with the United States.”
No, protectionism would be justified in that situation. Interestingly, Adam Smith did not support direct foreign investment for precisely that reason.
Is your daughter, er, a big girl?
Yes, but these “SES factors” are those of the convict in question, not the average of his ethnic group.
Since then the public treatment of numerous nonwhite conservatives has only confirmed this fact. Not being a white is NOT an inoculation against leftist victimization. In fact, one is often viewed as a deranged person or a contemptible traitor by those on the left who assume that all nonwhites should be their “allies.” It’s sad to see that those on alt-right agree with this demented view.Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Kokusen'ya, @Kokusen'ya
Why would it surprise you that white supremacists hate non-whites – whatever their ideology? It’s not about ideology.
Same reason Jon Stewart briefly had not only a career but moral authority. The mass media sacrifices its credibility with its constant lying. But in order to lie effectively, it needs credibility. To have credibility it must sometimes tell the truth. So a thought leader will get attention by actually telling the truth (Chapelle and Chris Rock about blacks, Stewart about the early Bush administration at a time when the media was not going after them, Dennis Leary about sloppy moral thinking, Bill Hicks about everything, etc). Having won that attention and a certain reputation he will then “spend” it with a poisoned payload. When people figure out that he is effectively a state propagandist with a better backstory they drift away or sit in their room listening to Peter Murphy songs about the paradox of loneliness. Then there’s a new “tells-it-like-it-is” comedian and it all restarts.
After I pressed publish I thought, she needs to be wearing a P-83 Wanad, and keep the Heckler in a purse …
For a short stretch I carried that exact pistol - the H&K USP in 45 ACP - on an "assault vest" overseas. It was so large and unwieldy that I ditched it promptly (it went to a cousin, a pilot, who carried it on his helo). And I am 6' 2" and have pretty good grip strength from doing decades of Judo. I just don't see most females carrying it or handling it well.
Subsequently I carried a Browning Hi-Power in 9mm. In the U.S. for my civilian concealed carry, I use something much smaller and lighter.
P-83... I am not a big fan of straight blowback pistols for a day job.* Small caliber, low capacity, and snappy recoil (relative to the ballistics). They are generally rugged and fairly accurate though, thanks to the fixed barrel, that is, if one could procure decent quality ammo for them (i.e. not comblock milsurp). Even then, they have ridiculously primitive and small sights.
*I collect Walther PP series pistols, but that's purely for collection and aesthetic purposes. In comparison to modern guns, they are terrible pistols.Replies: @J.Ross
One could very much argue the opposite on HBD grounds. Since blacks have a higher recidivism rate, it could be argued that it isn’t their fault. Therefore, their punishment should be less.
I know someone who taught in an alternative high school. He said he hated his white students. Why? Because for a white student to be put in an alternative school requires them to be a major-league asshole. Also, he put it like this: the white students should know better than to act like the NAM’s.
Because I do not believe that all alt-righters are white supremacists… and also because I want people to be honest about their reasons. If they hated nonwhites, they should state so, instead of making up lies about whites being the only victims of the left. I hate demagoguery whoever engages in it. In general, history tells me that demagogues mean well even to those they claim to represent.
She must have some mighty big purse. And some big man-hands.
For a short stretch I carried that exact pistol – the H&K USP in 45 ACP – on an “assault vest” overseas. It was so large and unwieldy that I ditched it promptly (it went to a cousin, a pilot, who carried it on his helo). And I am 6′ 2″ and have pretty good grip strength from doing decades of Judo. I just don’t see most females carrying it or handling it well.
Subsequently I carried a Browning Hi-Power in 9mm. In the U.S. for my civilian concealed carry, I use something much smaller and lighter.
P-83… I am not a big fan of straight blowback pistols for a day job.* Small caliber, low capacity, and snappy recoil (relative to the ballistics). They are generally rugged and fairly accurate though, thanks to the fixed barrel, that is, if one could procure decent quality ammo for them (i.e. not comblock milsurp). Even then, they have ridiculously primitive and small sights.
*I collect Walther PP series pistols, but that’s purely for collection and aesthetic purposes. In comparison to modern guns, they are terrible pistols.
I agree mostly, but his recent comedy is not as funny to me. His old stuff, such as the white news about reparations to blacks and the blind black white supremacist, is comedy gold and surprisingly biting toward blacks.
He is certainly an odd bird – apparently he lives on some farm in Ohio, and is married to a Filipina (and has a mixed son). His one recent bit, though, was really moving – he described the whites who lined up to vote for Trump in his locality (the crowd was about to laugh and jeer at the mention) as, in fact, decent ordinary people. A brief, stunned pause followed, and some quick clapping. That was, well, slightly awkward to the people in attendance, I am sure.
I am glad to see that it’s not all race with you.
At 4chan we call that “guaranteed replies.” Imagine yelling that Euler was an idiot into a room full of humorless mathematicians.
For a short stretch I carried that exact pistol - the H&K USP in 45 ACP - on an "assault vest" overseas. It was so large and unwieldy that I ditched it promptly (it went to a cousin, a pilot, who carried it on his helo). And I am 6' 2" and have pretty good grip strength from doing decades of Judo. I just don't see most females carrying it or handling it well.
Subsequently I carried a Browning Hi-Power in 9mm. In the U.S. for my civilian concealed carry, I use something much smaller and lighter.
P-83... I am not a big fan of straight blowback pistols for a day job.* Small caliber, low capacity, and snappy recoil (relative to the ballistics). They are generally rugged and fairly accurate though, thanks to the fixed barrel, that is, if one could procure decent quality ammo for them (i.e. not comblock milsurp). Even then, they have ridiculously primitive and small sights.
*I collect Walther PP series pistols, but that's purely for collection and aesthetic purposes. In comparison to modern guns, they are terrible pistols.Replies: @J.Ross
It’s my conjectural daughter, I can shower her with inappropriate firearms.
I have actual daughters and they shoot ladies’ guns, some of them all pinked out and such.Replies: @J.Ross
Perhaps this will be a use of AI — to analyze the footage from body cams and categorize these types of behaviors. It will show that blacks are, all else equal, more likely to be uncooperative/disrespectful/resistant, which of course will prove that the AI and the people who programmed it are racist.
Yes, I think he’s a good comic. Chappelle has also spoken out about Illuminati control over the entertainment business, to the detriment of his career.
True, nabs is short for Nabisco, but if you grew up near Charlotte, you know that Lance crackers are superior to nabs in every way. Trouble is, the cullut people still call Lance crackers nabs.
Whaddayagonnado?
Tattoos are a sign of lack of inhibition. That goes 10x for ones that can’t be covered up.
Do tattoos automatically mean guilty? Of course not! But they are not meaningless either. You have to weigh all the evidence. If a guy’s testimony doesn’t add up, and he has finger tattoos. He’s probably lying. It’s probably not the all the planets being in alignment.
Why do you have fantasies of having a daughter with big man-hands?
I have actual daughters and they shoot ladies’ guns, some of them all pinked out and such.
I have actual daughters and they shoot ladies’ guns, some of them all pinked out and such.Replies: @J.Ross
One day you will write a perfectly intelligent comment that is not agonizing over the symbols and proofs of masculinity.
You mean like having muscular, hunky sons and tall, beautiful daughters?
Since then the public treatment of numerous nonwhite conservatives has only confirmed this fact. Not being a white is NOT an inoculation against leftist victimization. In fact, one is often viewed as a deranged person or a contemptible traitor by those on the left who assume that all nonwhites should be their “allies.” It’s sad to see that those on alt-right agree with this demented view.Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Kokusen'ya, @Kokusen'ya
It’s so much worse than you probably remember it.
I was only in academia (college) half a decade ago, but experienced similar prejudices as a traditionalist non-white. I’ve also interacted with a number of Alt-Right figures in the past (before they became Alt-Right), and they similarly assumed that Asians _should_ have a set of predefined beliefs and acted rather belligerently when they deviated from the script.
To be fair, Asian-Americans have proven themselves to be perfect lapdogs of the progressives. I have not researched this topic in depth but my intuition is that, in spite of whatever assimilation might have occurred, strands of holdover Confucian mentality still exist within many Asian-Americans, and it subconsciously informs the blind, sycophantic obedience they have towards their perceived “social betters”, in this case white progressives and their cute little theory of intersectionality.
Asian Hack:
Free-Thinking Asian:
Since then the public treatment of numerous nonwhite conservatives has only confirmed this fact. Not being a white is NOT an inoculation against leftist victimization. In fact, one is often viewed as a deranged person or a contemptible traitor by those on the left who assume that all nonwhites should be their “allies.” It’s sad to see that those on alt-right agree with this demented view.Replies: @Johann Ricke, @Kokusen'ya, @Kokusen'ya
It’s so much worse than you probably remember it.
I was only in academia (college) half a decade ago, but experienced similar prejudices as a traditionalist non-white. I’ve also interacted with a number of Alt-Right figures in the past (before they became Alt-Right), and they similarly assumed that Asians _should_ have a set of predefined beliefs and acted rather belligerently when I deviated from the script.
To be fair, Asian-Americans have proven themselves to be perfect lapdogs of the progressives. I have not researched this topic in depth but my intuition is that, in spite of whatever assimilation might have occurred, strands of holdover Confucian mentality still exist within many Asian-Americans, and it subconsciously informs the blind, sycophantic obedience they have towards their perceived “social betters”, in this case white progressives and their cute little theory of intersectionality.
Asian Hack:
Free-Thinking Asian:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8UTj8lQJhY&t=3s
The SES factors aren’t traits of the individual alone. For example, if you take into account a 23 year-old’s education level, it is influenced not only by the individual’s own traits and actions, but those of their parents and community, outside of the individual’s control. This doesn’t make it necessarily worse as a predictor, but it runs afoul of the principle of holding people accountable for their own actions only. It’s a tradeoff between fairness and quality of model that becomes harder if the SES predictors make the model much better.
I was only in academia (college) half a decade ago, but experienced similar prejudices as a traditionalist non-white. I’ve also interacted with a number of Alt-Right figures in the past (before they became Alt-Right), and they similarly assumed that Asians _should_ have a set of predefined beliefs and acted rather belligerently when I deviated from the script.
To be fair, Asian-Americans have proven themselves to be perfect lapdogs of the progressives. I have not researched this topic in depth but my intuition is that, in spite of whatever assimilation might have occurred, strands of holdover Confucian mentality still exist within many Asian-Americans, and it subconsciously informs the blind, sycophantic obedience they have towards their perceived “social betters”, in this case white progressives and their cute little theory of intersectionality.
Asian Hack:
Free-Thinking Asian:
Replies: @Kokusen'ya
Sorry, meant to include this link:
I was only in academia (college) half a decade ago, but experienced similar prejudices as a traditionalist non-white. I’ve also interacted with a number of Alt-Right figures in the past (before they became Alt-Right), and they similarly assumed that Asians _should_ have a set of predefined beliefs and acted rather belligerently when they deviated from the script.
To be fair, Asian-Americans have proven themselves to be perfect lapdogs of the progressives. I have not researched this topic in depth but my intuition is that, in spite of whatever assimilation might have occurred, strands of holdover Confucian mentality still exist within many Asian-Americans, and it subconsciously informs the blind, sycophantic obedience they have towards their perceived “social betters”, in this case white progressives and their cute little theory of intersectionality.
Asian Hack:
Free-Thinking Asian:
Replies: @Twinkie
I suggest you do more research. Asians are a diverse group, and Koreans vote differently than Indians do. The biggest single variable that affects voting patterns among Asians is religion. If you understand that, you begin to understand why Koreans and Indians, respectively, behave differently politically and socially in America.
Fair enough. But… “those of their parents and community” still refer to “their” particular parents and community, not a race or larger ethnic group as a whole. And I agree that judges discretely take such factors into account.
Here’s another layer of irony: Dave Chappell was raised by middle-class black people in a decidedly non-criminal environment. His first wholesale exposure to the black underclass was as a marihuana enthusiast adult. He’s married with all of his children born in wedlock to a non-black (Filipino, iirc) woman and lives far, *far* away from the urban environment. Literally every one of his, “White people do this, but black people do *this*!”, jokes are performed from an outsider perspective.
Even on his claim to fame, his day-to-day perspective has a covert tinge of “whiteness” (white writers, white costars, crypto-virtue signalling) unpossessed by his urban contemporaries (Rock, Hart, Burress, et. al.) Bill Burr and Louis C.K. may have written for all of them, but only Chappell was willing to be seen on screen with white people as equals (in both manners: whites and blacks being portrayed as equally moral/amoral as necessary). If he wasn’t a slave to the Narrative, he wouldn’t have suffered his purported breakdown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TNxsXdDcaY&feature=youtu.be&t=41