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From CNBC:
Robert Shiller: Recession likely years away due to bullish Trump effect
PUBLISHED 5 HOURS AGO
Stephanie Landsman @STEPHLANDSMANNobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller believes a recession may be years away due to a bullish Trump effect in the market.
According to the Yale University professor, President Donald Trump is creating an environment that’s conducive to strong consumer spending, and it’s a major force that should hold off a recession.
“Consumers are hanging in there. You might wonder why that would be at this time so late into the cycle. This is the longest expansion ever. Now, you can say the expansion was partly [President Barack] Obama,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “But lingering on this long needs an explanation.”
Shiller, a behavioral finance expert who’s out with the new book “Narrative Economics,” believes Americans are still opening their wallets wide based on what President Trump exemplifies: Consumption.
“I think that [strong spending] has to do with the inspiration for many people provided by our motivational speaker president who models luxurious living,” said Shiller.
Shiller emphasizes there’s still uncertainty and risk surrounding Wall Street.
Before the markets can take-off, Shiller stresses President Trump needs to get past the impeachment inquiry. He sees this as the biggest threat to his optimistic forecast.
“If he survives that, he might contribute for some time in boosting the market,” said Shiller. “We’re maybe in the Trump era, and I think that Donald Trump by inspiration had an effect on the market — not just tax cutting.”
This reminds me of why I gave up on having macroeconomic opinions.
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I think understanding the economy is like being a liberal and trying to understand social phenomena – like why are some schools low-performing while others are high-performing? Why does this neighborhood have high crime while that one doesn’t? How come this group of immigrants is wealthy while this one is poor? You try all kinds of things and none of them work – it’s a complete mystery! But not to us HBD-aware deplorables – we know the secret!
So understanding the economy I think is like that – only no one knows the secret.
How the economy works is deliberately hidden for fairly similar reasons to the examples you gave: keep people misinformed so you can control how things work. It's fascinating, as a financial insider, to watch public speeches and how people lie while using words people think they know the meaning of. A great example is "growth". Internally, this means loan book growth but the public only hears economic growth. The two overlap strongly so it usually doesn't sound weird but sometimes there is obvious contradiction.
Bottom line, the minute debt growth stalls or contracts, economic growth will magically stall or contract.
Read:
Economics in One Lesson https://mises.org/library/economics-one-lesson
The Creature from Jekyll Island https://blog.12min.com/the-creature-from-jekyll-island-pdf/
Man, Economy and State https://mises.org/library/man-economy-and-state-power-and-market
Democracy, the God that Failed https://mises.org/library/democracy-god-failed-1
The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion https://archive.org/details/TheProtocolsOfTheLearnedEldersOfZion
To understand economics and its related problems.
Then study:
A Direct Republic: The Null Hypothesis of Politics https://www.thenullhypothesisofpolitics.com/
The Constitution of the First Distributed Republic https://strangerousthoughts.wordpress.com/2011/11/07/the-constitution-of-the-first-distributed-republic/
How to Make a Mint https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-paper
For the solutions.
>“I think that [strong spending] has to do with the inspiration for many people provided by our motivational speaker president who models luxurious living,” said Shiller.<
or more money in their wallet?
Please point to a single person at a trump rally the would indicate that they’re emulating some kind of Trump modeled luxury. Of course he’s a motivational speaker … that’s the job of a good President, and it drives them insane like mindless zombies that it’s the opposite of the dark lord obama.
We are actually dealing with a kind of weaponized mental virus that is spread and infects people like some kind of real world zombie apocalypse that is eating its way through society. They simply cannot comprehend reality anymore as their minds turn to mush.
Wow, is it too late to deplatform this guy? He needs deplatforming.
Is there any possibility consumers, perhaps also the rich, might boost their spending under the assumption a democrat might get elected and impose a tax increase? Spend it while you have it and before they take it? But who knows. Economics is something best left to hindsight. That way, everyone can have an opinion and no one can be wrong – or so everyone with an opinion will claim.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-12-02-mn-1293-story.html
If Warren wins in 2000 and the Dems take the Senate, expect something similar from Big Money Dems in tech and on Wall Street.
The power of positive thinking.
https://youtu.be/ROXPP8bSxP8Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
I think he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about. The country is still paying off the last debacle.
Incomes have not increased across the board.
The employment numbers reflect people working, not how deep that work is: full time, income level, impost verses exports . . .and we are still measuring GDP by what’s produced and remains on the shelf.
I simply don’t buy it. I support the executive, but a nobel prize winner or not I am not spending money based on how the president spends money. Given the real numbers, the prop up could end anytime.
Maybe it is just me, but that looks a lot like ‘It’s different this time!”.
Not topical, but amusing, nonetheless – white supremacist defends Jewish lobbyist for unleashing anti-Chinese tirade. In Canada:
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/opinion/canadian-far-right-china-loom-in-parking-lot-dispute/
The video of the incident in the parking lot is funny. The Jewish lady’s rude and racist tirade, while regrettable (as far as I can tell, but who knows what happened, I’m not judging...), is oddly catchy in its sing-songy way.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B1janQQHxFQ/
Best comment: “jeong_nguyen: I thought candians were supposed to be nice”.
The ensuing debate as detailed in the article is noteworthy for its many demographic, political, and free speech angles. When did Canada get so interesting?
For example, the “Say NO to Mass Immigration” billboard campaign that was canceled by the billboard company after a political outcry.
https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/08/26/immigration-ads-pulled-bernier/
It’s simply the Art of the Deal!
“Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.” Keynes (of course)
have i think hit it. Not too many people are copying Trump's ridiculous gold plated nonsense. But Trump is a "let's do this!" kind of guy who encourages people's animal spirits to keep flowing.
This in contrast the Democrats policy of telling everyone to stop doing anything and wait for approval from mommy. (Why my parents had to live through the 1937-38 recession within the Depression.)
As far as i can see the overall recovery has been cheap money--quantitative easing--more or less recapitulation the same housing bubble nonsense as the previous decade, with the only--but huge--real productive factor being the fracking revolution driving down energy costs giving everyone a decent bonus.
This might be running out of steam now, but Trump's positive attitude encourages people to keep it going. (Unfortunately he hasn't delivered on the one critical factor to improving American's lives--an end to the immigration insanity.)
Is it as simple as:
Trump=Animal Spirits?
All Trump has actually done is less. I would attribute it to that.
And sine all the Democrats can agree on is more government “help” its easy to see one future outcome.
That doesnt work when you have tenure,
If Shiller keeps up like this he'll find out he's not getting interviewed any more. Dinner invitations, speaking engagements, friendly tennis matches. Toast.
Fortunately his auto mechanic is probably like-minded so at least the brake lines on his car are safe, for now.Replies: @Kronos
Will the Dems sabotage the economy to win the presidency? I wouldn’t put it past them.
They will lie, cheat, steal, and, I'm convinced, kill to achieve their goals.Replies: @J.Ross
An orange a day…
https://youtu.be/uyEokxi2hWy
I think the media and left are loath to admit Trump’s drill drill drill policies have kept oil and gas prices down for Americans. Natural gas prices in particular ( current price $2.31 per thousand cu.ft) feed back to Americans in food, electricity and heating costs. I remember after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed the GoM gas fields people’s gas bills soared such that heating their house that winter cost more than paying their mortgage. $100 per barrel oil prices meant $4.oo per gallon gasoline too.
Be a different world for consumers today if Trump hadn’t shitcanned carbon taxes and blocked fracking as the econuts wanted.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-natgas-pipelines-flaring-explainer/explainer-why-are-us-natural-gas-prices-in-texas-below-zero-idUSKCN1RL2NL
It's cheaper to flare it off than it is to pay someone to take it from you, but somehow it seems just a bit wasteful. Might even contribute to warming, but you didn't hear that from me.Replies: @Anonymous, @AnotherDad
It wasnt until Dubya invaded Iraq and destabilized global oil markets that prices moved ABOVE the psychological barrier of 2 bucks a gallon. "Psychological threshold" is a very important concept.....and during Gulf War 1 and into the 90s economic boom the oil speculator parasites never dared jack oil prices above 2 bucks a gallon. As old rednecks back home put it "2 bucks a gallon is too much.
Prices only dipped twice since the Bush-induced market blow up....once in 2008/9 when demand destruction occurred during the bowels of the 09 W. Bush downturn recession.
And then again in 2014 when frackers flooded the market with so much oil prices dipped below $2 a gallon again...
In the long run Keynes is still dead.
The idea that we should vote a politician in or out based on whether the economic growth rate is -0.3% vs 1.2% or whatever in the period of time around the election–as the young ladies say, I can’t even.
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don’t have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it’s silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn’t know that until recently (and we still don’t know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn’t have time to cook–great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use–even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery–OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.
And it's presented in a easily understandable manner...almost simple.
Thanks, SimpleSong
The unemployment rate's supposed to be a better predictor as it gives a better impression of where people are subjectively, which is what determines their vote.Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter
Pet peeve? Absolutely.
This ...is solid gold. A little snippet that is demonstrative of so much of the "GDP growth" that has happened during my life.
Be a different world for consumers today if Trump hadn't shitcanned carbon taxes and blocked fracking as the econuts wanted.Replies: @SimpleSong, @HammerJack, @Neoconned
Agree–fracking has been like a phantom stimulus for over a decade now that has allowed the fed to get away with extremely loose monetary policy without triggering inflation.
If fracking falters…look out.
Also somewhat humorously fracking has lowered US CO2 emissions quite a bit since natural gas displaced coal for most electricity generation. Burning CH4 obviously makes less CO2 than pure C.
The fact that blowing all your hard-earned dough on useless crap like a house afire is a sign of economic “health” is itself a sign of the apocalypse.
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/opinion/canadian-far-right-china-loom-in-parking-lot-dispute/Replies: @European-American
Amusing indeed!
The video of the incident in the parking lot is funny. The Jewish lady’s rude and racist tirade, while regrettable (as far as I can tell, but who knows what happened, I’m not judging…), is oddly catchy in its sing-songy way.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B1janQQHxFQ/
Best comment: “jeong_nguyen: I thought candians were supposed to be nice”.
The ensuing debate as detailed in the article is noteworthy for its many demographic, political, and free speech angles. When did Canada get so interesting?
For example, the “Say NO to Mass Immigration” billboard campaign that was canceled by the billboard company after a political outcry.
https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/08/26/immigration-ads-pulled-bernier/
Considering the crowd he runs with (the Yale faculty), what he told this reporter means he’s a Trump voter for sure. In that crowd, if you aren’t condemning Trump every time you mention him, you’re a closet Trumpian.
This is true, but I think it’s mainly due to Trump browbeating Jerome Powell and the Fed into cutting interest rates twice this year. And Powell said a couple weeks ago that he might cut rates again soon.
Even with the cuts so far, Trump has been on Powell’s ass and keeping up the pressure on him:
“Trump Calls for Fed’s ‘Boneheads’ to Slash Interest Rates Below Zero”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/bonehead-trump-jay-powell.html
After a banking crisis economic growth is sluggish but continues for a longer time span than the usual business cycle. Trump's policies have meant the US is an outlier during the current world economic slowdown. I think people have forgotten you can have slowdowns and that these don't always turn in to systemic crises for the world financial system.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/orgchart/board/horowitz.html
They forgot to mention Sara Horowitz bankrupted 3 Obamacare co-ops:
https://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20160417/HEALTH_CARE/160419890/a-crain-s-investigation-shows-how-health-republic-insurance-of-new-york-the-company-that-was-supposed-to-be-ab
In theory Trump could do the same and make monetary policy a political tool of whatever party is in power. Sad thing is if he tried to do it hed be Oswalded by the bankers.Replies: @Bill
This reminds me why I have not given up thinking all boomers need to be put into camps.
http://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/5WEAAOSwBahVNT1c/s-l300.jpgReplies: @Kronos, @Anonymous
It sure helped Richard II. He thought animals would come to the rescue to protect “the divine right of kings.”
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51cFV6qAX-L._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
When you keep this in mind, you understand Donald Trump.Replies: @Dan Hayes, @Kronos, @Redneck farmer
Incomes have not increased across the board.
The employment numbers reflect people working, not how deep that work is: full time, income level, impost verses exports . . .and we are still measuring GDP by what's produced and remains on the shelf.
I simply don't buy it. I support the executive, but a nobel prize winner or not I am not spending money based on how the president spends money. Given the real numbers, the prop up could end anytime.Replies: @Kronos
Go’s to show the the major difference between the real economy and the stock market.
vs.
Steve Sailer has Germaned-up this man’s name.
Maybe Robert Shiller goes around writing “Steve Schailer.”
“The Seiler surname is derived from the German word "Seil," meaning "rope," and as such it is thought to have originally been an occupational name for a maker of rope.”
As for Shiller, all four of his grandparents came to America from Lithuania in 1906-1910.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_J._Shiller
Shiller seems to have been pretty good at predicting bursting bubbles. Hope he’s right about the current expansion remaining unpopped...Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Hail
The proper germanification of Steve’s last name is of course “Seiler”.
“The Seiler surname is derived from the German word “Seil,” meaning “rope,” and as such it is thought to have originally been an occupational name for a maker of rope.”
As for Shiller, all four of his grandparents came to America from Lithuania in 1906-1910.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_J._Shiller
Shiller seems to have been pretty good at predicting bursting bubbles. Hope he’s right about the current expansion remaining unpopped…
His father is listed as a Benjamin Peter Shiller, a.k.a. Bronislovas Petras Šileris, born early 1910s to George Shiller [b.1887] and Amelia Miller [b.1892], both of Lithuania. Nobel Prize-winner Shiller characterizes his paternal grandfather, in an aside during his book Finance and the Good Society, as an opponent of the Czarist regime who emigrated because Lithuania was then still a Russian province with little hope of independence (until the 1914 short war turned long and the 1917 communist cataclysm happened).
His mother is listed as Ruth Radsville (daughter of Vincas Radziwilas [b.1877] and Rosalia Serys [b.1880s?]), both of Lithuania, resident in Chicago from 191o? to 1916 and Detroit thereafter.
Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller is himself of Detroit upbringing.Funny, but that looks a lot like 'Sailer,' in (pseudo-)Latinized-medievalized form.
The Internet says Šileris is just the Lithuanian spelling of the German surname S(c)hiller. The Lithuanian wiki page 'Šileris' redirects to the Friedrich Schiller page.Replies: @Hail, @anon
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don't have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it's silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn't know that until recently (and we still don't know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn't have time to cook--great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use--even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery--OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.Replies: @JimB, @Kronos, @JudgeSmails, @SFG, @JudgeSmails, @Jim bob Lassiter, @AnotherDad, @Bill
My favorite comment of the month.
https://youtu.be/ROXPP8bSxP8Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
As others have pointed out, the minister at young Donald Trump’s family church was one Norman Vincent Peale.
When you keep this in mind, you understand Donald Trump.
And don't forget that The Donald first met Marla Maples, his future second wife, at Peale's Marble Collegiate Church.Replies: @Not Raul
“The Seiler surname is derived from the German word "Seil," meaning "rope," and as such it is thought to have originally been an occupational name for a maker of rope.”
As for Shiller, all four of his grandparents came to America from Lithuania in 1906-1910.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_J._Shiller
Shiller seems to have been pretty good at predicting bursting bubbles. Hope he’s right about the current expansion remaining unpopped...Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Hail
The story is that we were named Seiler until an ancestor became mayor of the small Swiss town of Wil, at which point he thought it more fitting for the family dignity to adopt the less blue collar spelling of Sailer, much like a Smith becoming a Smythe.
Especially in a town noted for its UFO visits.
Someone inform the Gold Box that his presence is requested.
Tenure may protect against defenestration, but absolutely anyone can be deplatformed. Consider that Twitter is considering deplatforming the President of the United States.
If Shiller keeps up like this he’ll find out he’s not getting interviewed any more. Dinner invitations, speaking engagements, friendly tennis matches. Toast.
Fortunately his auto mechanic is probably like-minded so at least the brake lines on his car are safe, for now.
https://youtu.be/MK0SrxBC1xs
Be a different world for consumers today if Trump hadn't shitcanned carbon taxes and blocked fracking as the econuts wanted.Replies: @SimpleSong, @HammerJack, @Neoconned
Natural gas? I wonder how much we flare off, annually, in aggregate.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-natgas-pipelines-flaring-explainer/explainer-why-are-us-natural-gas-prices-in-texas-below-zero-idUSKCN1RL2NL
It’s cheaper to flare it off than it is to pay someone to take it from you, but somehow it seems just a bit wasteful. Might even contribute to warming, but you didn’t hear that from me.
Clearly gas pipeline capacity from the Permian (and other fields) has not kept up with the boom in production from fracking.
Additionally we need to be moving our auto fueling infrastructure--autos and stations--to be methanol capable, so we can start getting the benefit of the cheap gas on the transportation side as well as the power and heating sides.Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter, @DRA, @Anonymous
What’s with the ads?
Shiller certainly doesn’t seem hostile to Trump generally. But this latest pro-Trump angle might be just a provocative way to move books.
The whole “animal spirits” theory of macroeconomic cycles is interesting and somewhat plausible. But there’s no way to objectively test the weight of “spirits,” so I don’t think you can ever turn it into a falsifiable, scientific hypothesis. It’s just another reason why macroeconomics is still such an unpredictable mystery for most things that matter.
Sterling!
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51cFV6qAX-L._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
When you keep this in mind, you understand Donald Trump.Replies: @Dan Hayes, @Kronos, @Redneck farmer
Buzz Mohawk:
And don’t forget that The Donald first met Marla Maples, his future second wife, at Peale’s Marble Collegiate Church.
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51cFV6qAX-L._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
When you keep this in mind, you understand Donald Trump.Replies: @Dan Hayes, @Kronos, @Redneck farmer
I didn’t know that.
If Shiller keeps up like this he'll find out he's not getting interviewed any more. Dinner invitations, speaking engagements, friendly tennis matches. Toast.
Fortunately his auto mechanic is probably like-minded so at least the brake lines on his car are safe, for now.Replies: @Kronos
They can hack it with computers now.
Since we’ve been in a recession for the past 11 years, the idea that anybody is holding off anything is kind of nonsensical from the get go.
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don't have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it's silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn't know that until recently (and we still don't know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn't have time to cook--great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use--even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery--OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.Replies: @JimB, @Kronos, @JudgeSmails, @SFG, @JudgeSmails, @Jim bob Lassiter, @AnotherDad, @Bill
You have any favorite economic books?
They are, it’s called Florida.
I think it's probably his support for Mittens Romney. What a nasty, evil, dangerous character that Steve thinks we should all support as "a competent white man who should be in charge."Replies: @Kronos
Insanely off-topic:
Just watched the new WATCHMEN show on HBO. A few comments:
The Lone Ranger was Black, y’all: The show opens with clips from a completely fictitious silent movie about Bass Reeves, the Black marshall in the OK territory who is allegedly the basis for the Lone Ranger. Unfortunately for the WOKE, that’s completely untrue:
“Myth Debunked: Bass Reeves Was Not the Inspiration for The Lone Ranger”
http://martingrams.blogspot.com/2018/02/myth-debunked-bass-reeves-was-not.html
Is the Tulsa race riot the new Emmett Till?: We get a very lurid and bloody depiction of the 1921 Tulsa race riot.
It’s not Cultural Appropriation when it’s done by POC: There’s an all-Black version of Oklahoma! ….
It’s not fascism when we do it: The Tulsa cops all wear masks and are known by superhero-style codenames…..But they’re on the side of the Blacks against the evil White supremacist group called the Seventh Cavalry, which makes it ok….
How to spot a White Supremacist: Give ’em an Implicit Bias test and see if they have a negative reaction to someone defecating on the US flag….And remember, they’re really stupid and probably won’t know what “defecating” means…..
We’ve still got Nixon to kick around: The super-evil White Supremacists live in a place called “Nixonville.”
It’s all rather dire…..and the soundtrack, for some reason, sounds like something that John Carpenter might have composed…..
Lots of people have won the Swedish Bank’s economics Nobel prize, but Robert Shiller would be a very big deal economist in the post-war era even without that recognition. His Rational Expectations and the Structure of Interest Rates paper (which was also his Ph.D. thesis, iirc) would easily make it into any list of the ten most important papers in economics since WWII.
OT:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-natgas-pipelines-flaring-explainer/explainer-why-are-us-natural-gas-prices-in-texas-below-zero-idUSKCN1RL2NL
It's cheaper to flare it off than it is to pay someone to take it from you, but somehow it seems just a bit wasteful. Might even contribute to warming, but you didn't hear that from me.Replies: @Anonymous, @AnotherDad
When gasoline gets to a certain level of cheapness, we should tax it but not propane, natural gas, or biofuels that are made from real exergy-positive methods (i.e., not corn derived ethanol).
“The Seiler surname is derived from the German word "Seil," meaning "rope," and as such it is thought to have originally been an occupational name for a maker of rope.”
As for Shiller, all four of his grandparents came to America from Lithuania in 1906-1910.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_J._Shiller
Shiller seems to have been pretty good at predicting bursting bubbles. Hope he’s right about the current expansion remaining unpopped...Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Hail
Interesting story. Surname of German origin in Lithuania?
His father is listed as a Benjamin Peter Shiller, a.k.a. Bronislovas Petras Šileris, born early 1910s to George Shiller [b.1887] and Amelia Miller [b.1892], both of Lithuania. Nobel Prize-winner Shiller characterizes his paternal grandfather, in an aside during his book Finance and the Good Society, as an opponent of the Czarist regime who emigrated because Lithuania was then still a Russian province with little hope of independence (until the 1914 short war turned long and the 1917 communist cataclysm happened).
His mother is listed as Ruth Radsville (daughter of Vincas Radziwilas [b.1877] and Rosalia Serys [b.1880s?]), both of Lithuania, resident in Chicago from 191o? to 1916 and Detroit thereafter.
Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller is himself of Detroit upbringing.
Funny, but that looks a lot like ‘Sailer,’ in (pseudo-)Latinized-medievalized form.
The Internet says Šileris is just the Lithuanian spelling of the German surname S(c)hiller. The Lithuanian wiki page ‘Šileris’ redirects to the Friedrich Schiller page.
Memel people, like the rest of the German(-oriented) people/regions of this part of Europe, was Lutheran (not Catholic, as was/is the rest of Lithuania). Even those in Memel who identified as "Lithuanian-ethnicity, Lithuanian-language" in the 1920s census also identified as Lutheran, and it seems by a large majority. Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller is himself a Protestant (Methodist), which suggests a cultural inheritance from the Memel half of his family (if this is indeed correct).
Robert J. Schiller, Nobel Prize winner, on his grandfather:One possibility here is whichever ancestor took the name Shiller may have been taking the name of a wealthy patron family in the area whom they worked for, and the Baltic-Germans were once wealth. I know Latvians and Estonians sometimes did this. I wouldn't be surprised if Memel'ers did the same.
In any event, there is no indication that any of Robert Shiller's ancestry is Jewish. (Memel was 0.4% Jewish in the 1920s censuses; Lithuania's capital city Vilnius, typical of city in this region of Europe at the time, was as much as 40% Jewish around 1900, down to 25-30% by the 1930s).Replies: @Dan Hayes, @Steve Sailer, @anon
His father is listed as a Benjamin Peter Shiller, a.k.a. Bronislovas Petras Šileris, born early 1910s to George Shiller [b.1887] and Amelia Miller [b.1892], both of Lithuania. Nobel Prize-winner Shiller characterizes his paternal grandfather, in an aside during his book Finance and the Good Society, as an opponent of the Czarist regime who emigrated because Lithuania was then still a Russian province with little hope of independence (until the 1914 short war turned long and the 1917 communist cataclysm happened).
His mother is listed as Ruth Radsville (daughter of Vincas Radziwilas [b.1877] and Rosalia Serys [b.1880s?]), both of Lithuania, resident in Chicago from 191o? to 1916 and Detroit thereafter.
Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller is himself of Detroit upbringing.Funny, but that looks a lot like 'Sailer,' in (pseudo-)Latinized-medievalized form.
The Internet says Šileris is just the Lithuanian spelling of the German surname S(c)hiller. The Lithuanian wiki page 'Šileris' redirects to the Friedrich Schiller page.Replies: @Hail, @anon
That both husband and wife had German names suggests to me they were from the Memel coastal area, the once-German section of Lithuania that all students of WWII will recall as the area ceded to Germany after a Hitler ultimatum in 1939. (There were 90,000 Germans counted in the 1920s censuses in Lithuania, two-thirds in Memel, where they outnumbered Lithuanians.) Grandmother Amelia (search for “Amelia Shiller” [nee Miller]) had an exotic, very much Lappoid-type look. General Hindenburg was of a similar, Baltid anthropological type but less Lappoid in appearance.
Memel people, like the rest of the German(-oriented) people/regions of this part of Europe, was Lutheran (not Catholic, as was/is the rest of Lithuania). Even those in Memel who identified as “Lithuanian-ethnicity, Lithuanian-language” in the 1920s census also identified as Lutheran, and it seems by a large majority. Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller is himself a Protestant (Methodist), which suggests a cultural inheritance from the Memel half of his family (if this is indeed correct).
Robert J. Schiller, Nobel Prize winner, on his grandfather:
One possibility here is whichever ancestor took the name Shiller may have been taking the name of a wealthy patron family in the area whom they worked for, and the Baltic-Germans were once wealth. I know Latvians and Estonians sometimes did this. I wouldn’t be surprised if Memel’ers did the same.
In any event, there is no indication that any of Robert Shiller’s ancestry is Jewish. (Memel was 0.4% Jewish in the 1920s censuses; Lithuania’s capital city Vilnius, typical of city in this region of Europe at the time, was as much as 40% Jewish around 1900, down to 25-30% by the 1930s).
That said, his grandmother (or her sister) does not look Lithuanian, but rather vaguely Asiatic. Might be of a Lithuanian Tatar origin, like Charles Bronson. Some Tatars settled there in the 14th century around the old capital city.
Also, Lithuanian-Americans tend to vote Republican, so it's not that surprising Shiller would support Trump, even if tacitly. Especially having grown up in Detroit in the 1960s.Replies: @PiltdownMan
He’s certainly keeping the Treason Media, Treason Consultants, and Treason Lobbyists swimming in LibTard cash.
It’s the only thing worth a gold box these days.
The pharaoh had to feed his people, and, being a god on earth, during some time periods in ancient Egypt, he was seen as being in control of the fertilizing floods of the Nile.
https://www.projecthistoryteacher.com/2007/10/role-of-pharaoh-in-ancient-egypt.html
But there is nothing new under the sun:
When the Pharaoh’s advisers failed to interpret these dreams, the cup-bearer remembered Joseph. Joseph was then summoned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_(Genesis)#Vizier_of_Egypt
Now we need to talk about Pharoah’s chief economic forecaster, Moses.
The Egyptians shall know that I am the LORD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plagues_of_Egypt
Oh hell yeah they would! Nothing is off the table with that faction’s single minded pursuit of political power.
They will lie, cheat, steal, and, I’m convinced, kill to achieve their goals.
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51cFV6qAX-L._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
When you keep this in mind, you understand Donald Trump.Replies: @Dan Hayes, @Kronos, @Redneck farmer
Unfortunately, his brother disproved The Power Of Positive Drinking.
The energy balance for grain ethanol has been solidly positive for over a decade.
Corn production is heavily subsidized on several levels so accounting for its true cost is difficult, but it is extremely capital and chemical intensive.
Natural gas for vehicles is simple. You just need to take out the sulfur and the nonmethane gases that are valuable, like the noble gases, compress it and you are good to go. If you don't need to recover the noble gases simply desulfurizing it makes for good motor fuel. A natural gas compressor can run on its own gas, making small scale compressor-to-tank stations fairly cost effective.
The expense is the compressor station and the tank that has to be fitted in the car. These are high pressure tanks and are not cheap, but their cost and service life are becoming more favorable with volume.
Sadly, we are going backward and not forward on CNG vehicles. Honda and Ford both had turnkey cars available in the last few years but not in the current one due to poor demand.Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
Even with the cuts so far, Trump has been on Powell's ass and keeping up the pressure on him:
"Trump Calls for Fed’s ‘Boneheads’ to Slash Interest Rates Below Zero"
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/bonehead-trump-jay-powell.htmlReplies: @LondonBob, @jill, @Neoconned
Powell was right to raise rates, ultra low interest rates do more harm than good, but he did raise them too far, too fast.
After a banking crisis economic growth is sluggish but continues for a longer time span than the usual business cycle. Trump’s policies have meant the US is an outlier during the current world economic slowdown. I think people have forgotten you can have slowdowns and that these don’t always turn in to systemic crises for the world financial system.
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don't have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it's silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn't know that until recently (and we still don't know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn't have time to cook--great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use--even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery--OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.Replies: @JimB, @Kronos, @JudgeSmails, @SFG, @JudgeSmails, @Jim bob Lassiter, @AnotherDad, @Bill
A terrific look beyond the same old same old economic reporting using, apparently, thanks to this post, the measure of GDP as a complete metric of economic conditions.
And it’s presented in a easily understandable manner…almost simple.
Thanks, SimpleSong
Back in 2018, Peter Zeihan predicted there won’t be a major recession for at least 10 years, because millennials are finally earning enough to buy houses and start families. David Kohl has observed his students and many economists think we’re 1-2 years away from a recession. Bankers, who are actually in the economy, think 4-5 years.
His name is misspelled in the title (and URL). It should be either Shiller … or Schuller, if the winner of the Nobel Prize in televangelism is intended.
Thanks.
OT, but of interest:
The Internet thinks there is, in fact, a Steve Schailer out there and that he runs an Aussie Rules Touch Football training program:
Australian Rules (Touch) Football is an occasional subject of discussion at iSteve.
https://www.projecthistoryteacher.com/2007/10/role-of-pharaoh-in-ancient-egypt.html
But there is nothing new under the sun:
When the Pharaoh's advisers failed to interpret these dreams, the cup-bearer remembered Joseph. Joseph was then summoned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_(Genesis)#Vizier_of_Egypt
Now we need to talk about Pharoah's chief economic forecaster, Moses.
The Egyptians shall know that I am the LORD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plagues_of_EgyptReplies: @Dan Hayes
Ah, the usual suspects!
Memel people, like the rest of the German(-oriented) people/regions of this part of Europe, was Lutheran (not Catholic, as was/is the rest of Lithuania). Even those in Memel who identified as "Lithuanian-ethnicity, Lithuanian-language" in the 1920s census also identified as Lutheran, and it seems by a large majority. Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller is himself a Protestant (Methodist), which suggests a cultural inheritance from the Memel half of his family (if this is indeed correct).
Robert J. Schiller, Nobel Prize winner, on his grandfather:One possibility here is whichever ancestor took the name Shiller may have been taking the name of a wealthy patron family in the area whom they worked for, and the Baltic-Germans were once wealth. I know Latvians and Estonians sometimes did this. I wouldn't be surprised if Memel'ers did the same.
In any event, there is no indication that any of Robert Shiller's ancestry is Jewish. (Memel was 0.4% Jewish in the 1920s censuses; Lithuania's capital city Vilnius, typical of city in this region of Europe at the time, was as much as 40% Jewish around 1900, down to 25-30% by the 1930s).Replies: @Dan Hayes, @Steve Sailer, @anon
Admit it. The end-purpose of this exercise is to establish whether or not Schiller is Jewish!
They will lie, cheat, steal, and, I'm convinced, kill to achieve their goals.Replies: @J.Ross
They would but they might not be able to. Shiller’s meaning seems to be that, while no president can do a lot directly, every president sends signals about what priorities and foci he will assign his agencies, and after Obama’s Justice Department’s wrongheaded equity crusades, Trump wants to let every cash register ring: thus, businesses are taking this into account in their planning. Which is still sloppier than what we expect from a professor.
I'm still sometimes astonished at the lengths to which progressives and their more leftist compadres go to grab political power. Creative, ruthless, relentless. They never seem to take a day off.
Yes, presidents receive too much credit or blame for the economic fortunes of the country. As you state, presidents can't do a lot directly. Take the issuance of rules and regulations that impact businesses. Obama's administration, I believe, set records imposing more than any other administration. Trump has probably repealed and rescinded a record number, thereby sending signals, as you put it.
Maybe Professor Shiller felt the need to speak down to his audience. Way down. I think the way you presented the topic hit the sweet spot between too simplistic and too intricate .
Admit it, you were surprised that a respected Ivy League academic economist with a German last name was all but guaranteed to not be Jewish!
Memel people, like the rest of the German(-oriented) people/regions of this part of Europe, was Lutheran (not Catholic, as was/is the rest of Lithuania). Even those in Memel who identified as "Lithuanian-ethnicity, Lithuanian-language" in the 1920s census also identified as Lutheran, and it seems by a large majority. Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller is himself a Protestant (Methodist), which suggests a cultural inheritance from the Memel half of his family (if this is indeed correct).
Robert J. Schiller, Nobel Prize winner, on his grandfather:One possibility here is whichever ancestor took the name Shiller may have been taking the name of a wealthy patron family in the area whom they worked for, and the Baltic-Germans were once wealth. I know Latvians and Estonians sometimes did this. I wouldn't be surprised if Memel'ers did the same.
In any event, there is no indication that any of Robert Shiller's ancestry is Jewish. (Memel was 0.4% Jewish in the 1920s censuses; Lithuania's capital city Vilnius, typical of city in this region of Europe at the time, was as much as 40% Jewish around 1900, down to 25-30% by the 1930s).Replies: @Dan Hayes, @Steve Sailer, @anon
Americans won’t believe it, but there have been smart people with German-sounding names who aren’t Jewish.
What would you say Mr. Sailer’s most boomerific position is?
I think it’s probably his support for Mittens Romney. What a nasty, evil, dangerous character that Steve thinks we should all support as “a competent white man who should be in charge.”
You’d think there would be at least a few alt-righters from Wisconsin who could set the others straight on this.
It seems like whenever Trump fears that the Fed will raise rates (or not lower them), he ramps up the tariff talk against China, which spooks the markets and causes the Fed to lower rates. It’s a fine line he’s walking but it seems to be working.
Seriously, roughly where do you live? If northeast Ohio has help wanted signs out, and has for 3-5 years, the country isn’t in recession.
When employers cannot afford to page a wage that entices people away from welfare, the student loan party life, or mom's basement, that is a recession, only of another kind.
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don't have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it's silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn't know that until recently (and we still don't know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn't have time to cook--great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use--even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery--OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.Replies: @JimB, @Kronos, @JudgeSmails, @SFG, @JudgeSmails, @Jim bob Lassiter, @AnotherDad, @Bill
All good points. (I’ve read quite a few of them–minus the immigration one, of course–in liberal magazines.)
The unemployment rate’s supposed to be a better predictor as it gives a better impression of where people are subjectively, which is what determines their vote.
Even with the cuts so far, Trump has been on Powell's ass and keeping up the pressure on him:
"Trump Calls for Fed’s ‘Boneheads’ to Slash Interest Rates Below Zero"
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/bonehead-trump-jay-powell.htmlReplies: @LondonBob, @jill, @Neoconned
This is a scrubbed bio of Sara Horowitz who sits on the board of the NY Fed:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/orgchart/board/horowitz.html
They forgot to mention Sara Horowitz bankrupted 3 Obamacare co-ops:
https://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20160417/HEALTH_CARE/160419890/a-crain-s-investigation-shows-how-health-republic-insurance-of-new-york-the-company-that-was-supposed-to-be-ab
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don't have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it's silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn't know that until recently (and we still don't know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn't have time to cook--great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use--even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery--OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.Replies: @JimB, @Kronos, @JudgeSmails, @SFG, @JudgeSmails, @Jim bob Lassiter, @AnotherDad, @Bill
Thank you for not using the awkward sounding (at least it is to me) “Firstly”. I guess it’s a perfectly acceptable word, but I kinda cringe when I encounter it.
Pet peeve? Absolutely.
That’s a nice thought, but you might consider the case of one of the most consequential scientists of the last 100 years, James D. Watson, 1962 Nobel Prize winner for describing the double-helix structure of DNA (along with Francis Crick). http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2019/01/01/james-watson-continues-to-commit-heinous-thought-crime/
http://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/5WEAAOSwBahVNT1c/s-l300.jpgReplies: @Kronos, @Anonymous
Think and Grow Rich was Mitt Romney’s bible when he was younger not Trump’s.
Scott Adams is a hardcore materialist. He believes 100% in affirmations and says it’s the only reason he was able to become a world famous cartoonist, super rich, and date hot women. His current girlfriend has a master’s degree in financial economics and owns her own successful LA business.
Bret Weinstein had tenure. Still got PNG’d by the campus and had to leave his job.
…if they could added to my sentiment would be more accurate. Their efforts would be indirect and mostly consist of “talking down the economy”.Weren’t the Repubs accused of this during Obama’s administration?
I’m still sometimes astonished at the lengths to which progressives and their more leftist compadres go to grab political power. Creative, ruthless, relentless. They never seem to take a day off.
Yes, presidents receive too much credit or blame for the economic fortunes of the country. As you state, presidents can’t do a lot directly. Take the issuance of rules and regulations that impact businesses. Obama’s administration, I believe, set records imposing more than any other administration. Trump has probably repealed and rescinded a record number, thereby sending signals, as you put it.
Maybe Professor Shiller felt the need to speak down to his audience. Way down. I think the way you presented the topic hit the sweet spot between too simplistic and too intricate .
Maybe markings should be put around German-sounding names who aren’t Jewish. Shiller might become ++Shiller++.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-natgas-pipelines-flaring-explainer/explainer-why-are-us-natural-gas-prices-in-texas-below-zero-idUSKCN1RL2NL
It's cheaper to flare it off than it is to pay someone to take it from you, but somehow it seems just a bit wasteful. Might even contribute to warming, but you didn't hear that from me.Replies: @Anonymous, @AnotherDad
It’s definitely wasteful. I always hate seeing gas being flared off.
Clearly gas pipeline capacity from the Permian (and other fields) has not kept up with the boom in production from fracking.
Additionally we need to be moving our auto fueling infrastructure–autos and stations–to be methanol capable, so we can start getting the benefit of the cheap gas on the transportation side as well as the power and heating sides.
By then we will probably be back to pleistocene conditions. (see recent Science News for conditions)
Isn’t this the simple answer?
Also, speaking of the economy….
Uber Technologies Inc. is laying off 400 American employees at its California offices while seeking to import hundreds of foreign workers through the H-1B visa program.
Same old, same old.
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don't have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it's silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn't know that until recently (and we still don't know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn't have time to cook--great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use--even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery--OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.Replies: @JimB, @Kronos, @JudgeSmails, @SFG, @JudgeSmails, @Jim bob Lassiter, @AnotherDad, @Bill
I believe Jimmah Carter’s folks called it the “misery index”. They might have been on to something, but they sure didn’t fix it with the Knoxville Worlds Fair.
Clearly gas pipeline capacity from the Permian (and other fields) has not kept up with the boom in production from fracking.
Additionally we need to be moving our auto fueling infrastructure--autos and stations--to be methanol capable, so we can start getting the benefit of the cheap gas on the transportation side as well as the power and heating sides.Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter, @DRA, @Anonymous
Methanol is engine ruining shit that cost costs more in energy inputs to produce than it yields in BTUs. You must be from Iowa.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1186152886776094721Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @JerseyJeffersonian
“Pierre Delecto” is almost up there with “Carlos Danger” as a Twitter handle.
The unemployment rate's supposed to be a better predictor as it gives a better impression of where people are subjectively, which is what determines their vote.Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter
The unemployment rate is as useless as the GDP. The real useful figure is the labor force participation rate. (adjusted for lay-a-bouts, malingers, wage thieves by nature etc.)
Robert Shiller is a baby boomer stooge whore for the hostile JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire.
The Federal Reserve Bank and monetary extremism from the Fed is the cause and reason for the subsequent continuation of the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate.
Shiller is a high IQ baby boomer moron stooge boy who knows damn well that the Federal Reserve Bank is the reason that the asset bubbles in real estate — commercial/residential — and stocks and bonds has been kept inflated.
Shiller is a shyster who hides the fact that central banker shysters are using mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration as wage-reducing agents to suppress the wage inflation that would ordinarily occur during bouts of monetary extremism.
This filthy propaganda stooge Shiller is full of shit about some vague and hazy Trumpian consumer animal spirits that are magically levitating the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate!
This state university peasant bastard writer says that MIT sonofabitch Shiller can go straight to Hell!
Attention Shiller: What would the GDP be without a trillion dollar yearly deficit or a 23 trillion dollar federal government debt?
Attention Shiller: What would be the GDP and how would the asset bubbles fare if the federal funds rate were at the normal level of 6 percent?
Attention Shiller: If the economy is booming like a bastard, why is it necessary to cut the federal funds rate and pour in more liquidity to the money supply?
I hereby challenge this MIT bigshot Shiller to a debate on monetary extremism and the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate.
This will be a 4 hour debate with mandatory beer consumption during the debate.
More Beer! More Debate! More Free Speech!
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don't have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it's silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn't know that until recently (and we still don't know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn't have time to cook--great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use--even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery--OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.Replies: @JimB, @Kronos, @JudgeSmails, @SFG, @JudgeSmails, @Jim bob Lassiter, @AnotherDad, @Bill
Terrific comment–all your points–SimpleSong.
This …
is solid gold. A little snippet that is demonstrative of so much of the “GDP growth” that has happened during my life.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1186152886776094721Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @JerseyJeffersonian
His twitter handle should actually be In Flagrante Delicto; this would have been more truthful, as he is always busy committing evils. It also has the implication, in relation to the “impeachment inquiry”, that he is busy cuckolding the will of the American electorate. Mitt Romney, at your cervix, Madam Liberty (H/T Firesign Theater).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGzve57kBlA
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1185140724469321729
RIGGED HORSESHIT MONETARY EXTREMISM INTERVENTIONISM!
Andrew Jackson was right:
It’s the frigging central bank causing the asset bubbles, you boneheads!
I, too, have stopped even thinking about macroeconomics. Throughout my life I have repeatedly been persuaded by the hard-money, balanced-budget, what-goes-up-must-come-down arguments of analysts who believe there’s no such thing as a free lunch. And so I’ve missed out on several of the biggest bull markets in history. Even now, J.H. Kunstler strikes me as the most reasonable commentator on the world’s financial situation. But the market, of course, has a mind of its own.
Fritz Mondale was law review at Minnesota. 👊🏻
The spelling of the Laureate’s surname in the URL (Schiller) is a reminder that, like the rest of us, Mr. Sailer (Seiler) is fallible.
So understanding the economy I think is like that - only no one knows the secret.Replies: @Mike1, @Ash Williams
It’s actually simple: when debt is increasing, the economy swings up.
How the economy works is deliberately hidden for fairly similar reasons to the examples you gave: keep people misinformed so you can control how things work. It’s fascinating, as a financial insider, to watch public speeches and how people lie while using words people think they know the meaning of. A great example is “growth”. Internally, this means loan book growth but the public only hears economic growth. The two overlap strongly so it usually doesn’t sound weird but sometimes there is obvious contradiction.
Bottom line, the minute debt growth stalls or contracts, economic growth will magically stall or contract.
I’m sure they will if they can. I suspect that there are small nudges that could tip it over into a recession, that there are individuals in a position to provide those nudges, and that at least some of those individuals are Never-Trumpers. They won’t be able to prevent a recovery, which will happen naturally over time, so their best strategy is to wait until fairly close to the election–say, late spring to early summer next year.
Three Cranes
and Anon[292]
have i think hit it. Not too many people are copying Trump’s ridiculous gold plated nonsense. But Trump is a “let’s do this!” kind of guy who encourages people’s animal spirits to keep flowing.
This in contrast the Democrats policy of telling everyone to stop doing anything and wait for approval from mommy. (Why my parents had to live through the 1937-38 recession within the Depression.)
As far as i can see the overall recovery has been cheap money–quantitative easing–more or less recapitulation the same housing bubble nonsense as the previous decade, with the only–but huge–real productive factor being the fracking revolution driving down energy costs giving everyone a decent bonus.
This might be running out of steam now, but Trump’s positive attitude encourages people to keep it going. (Unfortunately he hasn’t delivered on the one critical factor to improving American’s lives–an end to the immigration insanity.)
Reminds me of a girl I met at a party back in my college days. Her last name was Berg, but when she introduced herself it came out as “BergI’mnotJewish.” (She was Scandinavian, IIRC.)
Another example of proffering differentiation -
The pronunciation of Koch: either the NYC Jewish way (i.e. Mayor Koch) or the Cook non-Jewish way (i.e. the globalist libertarian cutthroat Koch Family).Replies: @prosa123
J.Ross,
I wholeheartedly and unabashedly concur with your judgement. Thanks.
The Sailers of Elmwood, Wisconsin are important regional butchers, distributing their product in stores for many counties around. A name that means “rope-maker” might not be the best in this business.
Especially in a town noted for its UFO visits.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptronym
Here we recall Michael Eisner, running Disney from the “left,” no doubt cheering the 1992 election of Bill Clinton. That having been said, he made sure to exercise his stock options BEFORE 1993, when Clinton took power and raised tax rates:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-12-02-mn-1293-story.html
If Warren wins in 2000 and the Dems take the Senate, expect something similar from Big Money Dems in tech and on Wall Street.
So understanding the economy I think is like that - only no one knows the secret.Replies: @Mike1, @Ash Williams
Many know the secret. The problem is many more can’t be bothered; or like liberals and HBD statistics, they are too uncomfortable with the conclusions (because they show how totally and completely fooled they were by those who profited by deceiving them).
Read:
Economics in One Lesson https://mises.org/library/economics-one-lesson
The Creature from Jekyll Island https://blog.12min.com/the-creature-from-jekyll-island-pdf/
Man, Economy and State https://mises.org/library/man-economy-and-state-power-and-market
Democracy, the God that Failed https://mises.org/library/democracy-god-failed-1
The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion https://archive.org/details/TheProtocolsOfTheLearnedEldersOfZion
To understand economics and its related problems.
Then study:
A Direct Republic: The Null Hypothesis of Politics https://www.thenullhypothesisofpolitics.com/
The Constitution of the First Distributed Republic https://strangerousthoughts.wordpress.com/2011/11/07/the-constitution-of-the-first-distributed-republic/
How to Make a Mint https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-paper
For the solutions.
Robert Shiller is full of shit, and I don’t care if he’s a Jew or a Kraut or a Baltic bastard of some sort or a mongrel bastard, and he’s an MIT fancy pants pissant ECONOMIST!
Lawyers and Economists and Politicians are the scum of the earth!
My favorite all-time economist had the decency to croak down dead of a heart attack in the middle of one of his crappy lectures. It happened at the state university close by Aaron Burr’s gravesite at Princeton. That Bert Lahr wannabe with the Princeton “P” tatooed on his fat geezer globalizer money-grubber ass — GEORGE SHULTZ — is the type of THERANOS board member scumbag who goes to Princeton. That ridiculous Elizabeth Holmes dirtbag fraud really impressed your Princeton ass, ain’t that so Shultzy!
Princeton is only slightly less rancid than that vile shithole called Harvard!
Long before the treasonous filth baby boomers were even born, there was scum like George Shultz plotting to attack and destroy the USA using mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration as demographic weapons. The JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire has been rotten and treasonous for a century or more; many people say since that warmonger ape Abe Lincoln attacked the Southern states by refusing to vacate a Northern states-controlled island military installation.
Shultz ain’t got that “C” like he should, just like Shiller!
I wrote this about Robert Shiller in May of 2017:
Economist Robert J. Shiller is a shyster. Shiller is an economist. Shiller is unscrupulous. Shiller is an academic. Shiller pushes globalization and mass immigration. What more do you need to know?
Shiller and his ilk will defend this rotting globalized economic and political system until they expire and go to hell. My favorite economist croaked while in the middle of a lecture. He dropped dead of a heart attack. True story. Economists are evil beyond redemption.
Steve Sailer wrote this in 2017 about economists and Robert Shiller and the real estate asset bubble implosion of 2007 to 2009:
https://www.unz.com/isteve/why-dont-economists-yet-understand-the-housing-bubblebust/#comment-1880729
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/upshot/how-tales-of-flippers-led-to-a-housing-bubble.html?mabReward=CTM&recp=7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine
https://www.unz.com/isteve/why-dont-economists-yet-understand-the-housing-bubblebust/#comment-1880729
I wrote this in May of 2017 about Robert Shiller and central banking and immigration and asset bubbles:
The monetary extremism of the globalized central banks caused the real estate bubble. The real estate bubble popped in 2007-2oo9. The monetary extremism of the globalized central banks has re-inflated the real estate bubble. The current real estate bubble is in the process of popping at this very moment.
Mass immigration and monetary extremism are the two big issues of our time. The battle is being fought under the banners of patriotism vs globalization. Demography and debt just means mass immigration and financialization. Shysters like Robert Shiller are vile slobs who will never admit that their project to globalize the United States has led to unpayable government debt and unpayable private debt and unsustainable levels of multicultural mayhem.
The upcoming global financial implosion will stop mass immigration cold. The only thing holding the globalized financial system together is monetary extremism. That is why the globalized central banks must continuously inflate asset bubbles. Central banking is the key to understanding globalization, financialization, mass immigration and asset bubbles.
“Go’s to show the the major difference between the real economy and the stock market.”
I think that WS is valuable asset. But they are not the only mechanism to guage the economy.
I agree with anyone who suggests that GDP really needs an overhaul.
Lawyers and Economists and Politicians are the scum of the earth!
My favorite all-time economist had the decency to croak down dead of a heart attack in the middle of one of his crappy lectures. It happened at the state university close by Aaron Burr's gravesite at Princeton. That Bert Lahr wannabe with the Princeton "P" tatooed on his fat geezer globalizer money-grubber ass -- GEORGE SHULTZ -- is the type of THERANOS board member scumbag who goes to Princeton. That ridiculous Elizabeth Holmes dirtbag fraud really impressed your Princeton ass, ain't that so Shultzy!
Princeton is only slightly less rancid than that vile shithole called Harvard!
Long before the treasonous filth baby boomers were even born, there was scum like George Shultz plotting to attack and destroy the USA using mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration as demographic weapons. The JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire has been rotten and treasonous for a century or more; many people say since that warmonger ape Abe Lincoln attacked the Southern states by refusing to vacate a Northern states-controlled island military installation.
Shultz ain't got that "C" like he should, just like Shiller!Replies: @anon, @Anonymous
Stop holding back, Charles, and tell us how you really feel.
Trump will look demure by comparison.
I think it's probably his support for Mittens Romney. What a nasty, evil, dangerous character that Steve thinks we should all support as "a competent white man who should be in charge."Replies: @Kronos
Well back in 2012, it would’ve been preferable to the late Obama collapse. The SJW types got even nuttier between 2013-2016. Keep in mind there isn’t any real economic/foreign policy difference between Romney and Obama. Both support open boarders, neoliberal economics, and would’ve become further involved in the Middle East. But a Romney presidency would’ve partially sucked the oxygen out of the BLM/SJW/Cultural Marxist people. (Then again, his dad did a horrible job handling black riots/crime in Detroit while Governor.)
Keep in mind if the GOP had supported boarder security in the 1980s-1990s, the racial demographics would’ve allowed Obama’s defeat by ten points. (Maybe he wouldn’t have been elected at all.) The boomers wanted cheap labor so to transfer the money toward dividends. But with the demise of the Boomers in the next 15 years, the platforms of Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader will become solidly mainstream. You won’t have the middle-upper class white feminist/beta male grand alliance that’s controlled (and destroyed) everything in the last forty years since the 1968 “Boomer Ascension.”
*One thing I’m currently focusing my reading list on is Feminism. (AKA cancer research.) It seems that after every war they gained substantial political concessions. I’m starting with articles and stuff and eventually Phyllis Chesler’s “A Politically Incorrect Feminist: Creating a Movement with Bitches, Lunatics, Dykes, Prodigies, Warriors, and Wonder Women.”
https://www.unz.com/isteve/roots-of-2nd-wave-feminism/?highlight=Feminism
(Here’s a brief concentration of the research.)
World War I: The right to Vote.
World War II: A whole lot of government programs and jobs that benefited women. (Like Unions during the war years, they won concessions by supporting the war and not causing trouble. There were some very large anti-war protests (think Charles Lindbergh) before the Pearl Harbor attacks.
Vietnam War: Became a mainstream political faction in US politics. Because women weren’t eligible for the draft, they never received the political flack for fighting in Vietnam or draft dodging. While men were either fighting in Vietnam or skiing in Europe to avoid the draft, boomer women were able to consolidate political power. Keep in mind, feminism is fundamentally a middle-upper class movement. While rich brother Chad was a ski bum/fugitive for going AWOL, sister Alice could learn about the family real estate empire or join a corporate entity. Also, military men can’t vote, so if millions of men can’t vote, that an advantage to females.(Especially boomer women, the biggest generation in US history.) They could convince their FDR hating parents that allowing women into the workforce could help rollback New Deal economic legislation and weaken Unions from the inside.
So far, I haven’t been brainwashed into this guy yet.
Lawyers and Economists and Politicians are the scum of the earth!
My favorite all-time economist had the decency to croak down dead of a heart attack in the middle of one of his crappy lectures. It happened at the state university close by Aaron Burr's gravesite at Princeton. That Bert Lahr wannabe with the Princeton "P" tatooed on his fat geezer globalizer money-grubber ass -- GEORGE SHULTZ -- is the type of THERANOS board member scumbag who goes to Princeton. That ridiculous Elizabeth Holmes dirtbag fraud really impressed your Princeton ass, ain't that so Shultzy!
Princeton is only slightly less rancid than that vile shithole called Harvard!
Long before the treasonous filth baby boomers were even born, there was scum like George Shultz plotting to attack and destroy the USA using mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration as demographic weapons. The JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire has been rotten and treasonous for a century or more; many people say since that warmonger ape Abe Lincoln attacked the Southern states by refusing to vacate a Northern states-controlled island military installation.
Shultz ain't got that "C" like he should, just like Shiller!Replies: @anon, @Anonymous
State University= Rutgers?
Less than 30 miles north of Princeton is Trump's golf course.
In California UCSD and UCSB have some super elite departments in high IQ fields but nobody really cares about them as undergraduate degrees.
*To bring this back to Mr. Sailer, I believe one of the reasons it became a stellar department is that Jerry Fodor was a huge opera fan so he decided he'd rather be at Rutgers than MIT/Harvard (he'd spent most of his career in Cambridge, MA)Replies: @anon
Rex Little:
Another example of proffering differentiation –
The pronunciation of Koch: either the NYC Jewish way (i.e. Mayor Koch) or the Cook non-Jewish way (i.e. the globalist libertarian cutthroat Koch Family).
The pronunciation of Koch: either the NYC Jewish way (i.e. Mayor Koch) or the Cook non-Jewish way (i.e. the globalist libertarian cutthroat Koch Family).
There's also the authentic German pronunciation, which is very difficult for non-native German speakers.Replies: @Not Raul
Interesting post, but one quibble. People in the military can vote.
How much of this is due to over borrowing by this and previous administrations?
Women got the vote in Wyoming and Utah shortly after the Civil War. Those were territories, though, and a Republican Congress rescinded it in Utah about 15 years later. For some reason, GOP-bashers never bring that up today. Possibly due some other practice of Utah’s premature suffragists.
I can see why you resent them. They failed in teaching the young to spell.
In 15 years, Nader will be a centenarian, with Buchanan close behind. Their presidential campaigns will make Bernie Sanders look like a Boy Wonder.
How is hating FDR any different from hating Hitler or Stalin, the latter a hero of the President’s? Besides, most of their parents voted for him.
The only New Deal legislation that worked (in any sense other than the political) was our entry into the Second World War. Against which, by the way, Jeannette Rankin cast a very lonely vote. “As a woman I can’t go to war,” she said, “and I refuse to send anyone else.”
In 1917, with another vote against entering another world war, she said, “I wish to stand for my country, but I cannot vote for war.” In her interregnum between Congresses, she defended this with “I felt the first time the first woman had a chance to say no to war, she should say it.”
Now that’s my kind of suffragist!
The Reconstruction Finance Corporation, the bank holiday, the devaluation of the currency, the creation of HOLC, and Glass-Steagall were all tonic, as were the public employment programs. The Social Security Act was also successful toward certain ends (manifest later).Replies: @Kronos
https://cdn.pastemagazine.com/www/articles/LOTR%20via%20Amazon%20Header.jpg
Maybe I can help create a program to help my fellow Millennials?
https://youtu.be/O7dPprbzNSc
Also, I just started “A Politically Incorrect Feminist” by Phyllis Chesler. (Maybe I can become the Alt-Right’s Feminist expert correspondent?)Already, the schisms between the various feminist movements seem severe. Lots of differences and objectives (who would’ve thought women would act as such?) Chesler kind of seems like a Trotskyite that got purged by the successful Stalinists. You have Feinstein, who’s one of the biggest hawks in DC who runs on the feminist platform.
The only New Deal legislation that worked (in any sense other than the political) was our entry into the Second World War.
The Reconstruction Finance Corporation, the bank holiday, the devaluation of the currency, the creation of HOLC, and Glass-Steagall were all tonic, as were the public employment programs. The Social Security Act was also successful toward certain ends (manifest later).
Clearly gas pipeline capacity from the Permian (and other fields) has not kept up with the boom in production from fracking.
Additionally we need to be moving our auto fueling infrastructure--autos and stations--to be methanol capable, so we can start getting the benefit of the cheap gas on the transportation side as well as the power and heating sides.Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter, @DRA, @Anonymous
By the time the fracking gas runs out, perhaps methane hydrate from the continental slops will be available safely.
By then we will probably be back to pleistocene conditions. (see recent Science News for conditions)
About 20 miles up from Princeton on 27 is RU.
Less than 30 miles north of Princeton is Trump’s golf course.
Not quite, even as late as WW2 the absentee ballet was relatively new and underutilized. I recall a “Willie and Joe” comic making fun of the process. (I couldn’t find the exact one but this might do.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/11/ensuring-soldiers-a-chance-to-vote-was-a-challenge-in-the-civil-war-it-still-is-today/
Also, there are still major restrictions on supporting a political candidate while on active duty. (Keep in mind in the comic, both Eisenhower and MacArthur were still in the military. Neither were running for political office.)
https://www.thebalancecareers.com/military-folks-and-politics-3332818
Be a different world for consumers today if Trump hadn't shitcanned carbon taxes and blocked fracking as the econuts wanted.Replies: @SimpleSong, @HammerJack, @Neoconned
Thats not totally true. Gas from the mid 1980s when the Saudis tanked oil prices to bankrupt the Soviets who financed their empire with high oil prices…..until 2005 were in a 50 cents to UNDER $2.00 price range. There were hurricanes in the Gulf that shut down oil output in both the 80s & 90s but gas prices never shot up….
It wasnt until Dubya invaded Iraq and destabilized global oil markets that prices moved ABOVE the psychological barrier of 2 bucks a gallon. “Psychological threshold” is a very important concept…..and during Gulf War 1 and into the 90s economic boom the oil speculator parasites never dared jack oil prices above 2 bucks a gallon. As old rednecks back home put it “2 bucks a gallon is too much.
Prices only dipped twice since the Bush-induced market blow up….once in 2008/9 when demand destruction occurred during the bowels of the 09 W. Bush downturn recession.
And then again in 2014 when frackers flooded the market with so much oil prices dipped below $2 a gallon again…
The Reconstruction Finance Corporation, the bank holiday, the devaluation of the currency, the creation of HOLC, and Glass-Steagall were all tonic, as were the public employment programs. The Social Security Act was also successful toward certain ends (manifest later).Replies: @Kronos
I thought the biggest one was infrastructure spending. It essentially brought the South into the 20th century. (Before, northern banks constantly blackballed them via denying credit and financial investment.) Even modern LA was built on New Deal infrastructure spending.
And don't forget that The Donald first met Marla Maples, his future second wife, at Peale's Marble Collegiate Church.Replies: @Not Raul
where NOT to meet women
The South was less affluent than the north in 1929 to the tune of about 40% in terms personal income per capita in real terms (i.e roughly 40 years behind) It didn’t lack for public works departments or banks.
…..and we & our civilization are as well. Keynes was right about that.
Even with the cuts so far, Trump has been on Powell's ass and keeping up the pressure on him:
"Trump Calls for Fed’s ‘Boneheads’ to Slash Interest Rates Below Zero"
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/bonehead-trump-jay-powell.htmlReplies: @LondonBob, @jill, @Neoconned
Japanese Prime Min. Shinzo Abe stripped the Bank of Japan(their version of the Federal Reserve) of its independence in 2015 I think it was with a vote held by his party in the Japanese parliament. This basically lets the executive branch control monetary policy.
In theory Trump could do the same and make monetary policy a political tool of whatever party is in power. Sad thing is if he tried to do it hed be Oswalded by the bankers.
It's interesting that Trump uses such crude, public methods to get Powell to dance to his tune, but the Fed dancing to the POTUS's tune is not new.
Damn, and I promised commenter “Res” I’d work on it. Technically, the words aren’t spelled incorrectly. They’re just slightly different words that miss the full optimization of the sentence. But yes, I’m part of that generation addicted to spellchecker and missed the boat on cursive writing. (The joke being cursive taught you how to write Elven.)
Maybe I can help create a program to help my fellow Millennials?
But it largely benefited from New Deal funding right?
Still, according to Frank Bryan in Real Vermonters Don't Milk Goats, FDR was willing to build a parkway to Montreal via the peaks of the Green Mountains, but it was shot down in town meeting.
You mean ethanol from corn, not methanol from natural gas. It requires fuel systems made for it. But burns clean and runs cool.
The platforms and ideas not necessarily the people.
Also, I just started “A Politically Incorrect Feminist” by Phyllis Chesler. (Maybe I can become the Alt-Right’s Feminist expert correspondent?)
Already, the schisms between the various feminist movements seem severe. Lots of differences and objectives (who would’ve thought women would act as such?) Chesler kind of seems like a Trotskyite that got purged by the successful Stalinists.
You have Feinstein, who’s one of the biggest hawks in DC who runs on the feminist platform.
It seems to me like macroeconomics is like trying to predict the course of biological evolution. Things may be guided by certain principles but chaos and random chance is inherently part of the mix. Like, if you were an alien who understood natural selection and were observing Earth at the end of the Cretaceous and you saw the asteroid coming, would you be able to predict the evolution of humans in 65 million years? Probably not. You probably couldn’t even predict that all the non-avian dinosaurs would go extinct (after all, they survived numerous mass extinctions before in the Triassic and Jurassic). The only thing you’d be able to say is that a lot of things are gonna end up dying. Seems like economists are like that. They can say one event may have an effect but never are consistent enough to accurately say when the shit is gonna hit the fan.
Another example of proffering differentiation -
The pronunciation of Koch: either the NYC Jewish way (i.e. Mayor Koch) or the Cook non-Jewish way (i.e. the globalist libertarian cutthroat Koch Family).Replies: @prosa123
Another example of proffering differentiation –
The pronunciation of Koch: either the NYC Jewish way (i.e. Mayor Koch) or the Cook non-Jewish way (i.e. the globalist libertarian cutthroat Koch Family).
There’s also the authentic German pronunciation, which is very difficult for non-native German speakers.
The pronunciation of Koch: either the NYC Jewish way (i.e. Mayor Koch) or the Cook non-Jewish way (i.e. the globalist libertarian cutthroat Koch Family).
There's also the authentic German pronunciation, which is very difficult for non-native German speakers.Replies: @Not Raul
Is the authentic pronunciation like “Coke”?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loch
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cMkoHt73loQReplies: @Not Raul
Clearly gas pipeline capacity from the Permian (and other fields) has not kept up with the boom in production from fracking.
Additionally we need to be moving our auto fueling infrastructure--autos and stations--to be methanol capable, so we can start getting the benefit of the cheap gas on the transportation side as well as the power and heating sides.Replies: @Jim bob Lassiter, @DRA, @Anonymous
It may be almost as expensive to make gas stations methanolworthy as to put in CNG compressors. Most gas stations already have natural gas for internal heating hooked up, they just need the compressor.
Interestingly, Rutgers is one of those state universities that has no “lay prestige” for undergraduate pedigree on dating profiles but has some absolutely elite departments.
It is literally number one* in my high IQ field (yes, over Harvard, MIT, Princeton, Stanford, Oxford, Cambridge, etc.).
In California UCSD and UCSB have some super elite departments in high IQ fields but nobody really cares about them as undergraduate degrees.
*To bring this back to Mr. Sailer, I believe one of the reasons it became a stellar department is that Jerry Fodor was a huge opera fan so he decided he’d rather be at Rutgers than MIT/Harvard (he’d spent most of his career in Cambridge, MA)
Steve's bud Pinker would have no trouble landing a job at any NYC/NJ university tomorrow, should he wish to do so.Replies: @anonymous2space, @anonymous
YOur social engineering is very detailed. Why should you run other peoples lives?
Do you oppose the already onerous and colossal amount of motor vehicle and fuel regulations already in force?
The McJobs churn is an essential component of a stagflationary recession. Everybody is hiring, but nobody is paying.
When employers cannot afford to page a wage that entices people away from welfare, the student loan party life, or mom’s basement, that is a recession, only of another kind.
The Case-Schiller index is kind of a big deal too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case–Shiller_index
Well, duh… compare the vote totals in Mississippi and South Carolina to those in Maine and Vermont, or to those in the Hudson Valley for that matter, where they knew their native son the best.
Still, according to Frank Bryan in Real Vermonters Don’t Milk Goats, FDR was willing to build a parkway to Montreal via the peaks of the Green Mountains, but it was shot down in town meeting.
It rhymes with loch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loch
Trump the man
I failed to link the comment below. But yes, your more correct on that point than myself. Turns out the average age for Vietnam soldiers was 18 while in WW2 it was 23. Until during the early 1970s, the voting age was 21. Thus the common critique that you can die for your country but neither drink or vote.
https://youtu.be/uuYEzqVmy20
The issue here is exergy, which roughly means “the energy it takes to get the energy”. Corn derived ethanol is a poor exergy fuel, that is to say, it’s like a business with a billion dollars of capital invested that shows a profit of a hundred thousand dollars. It makes money but it doesn’t make enough money to make the capital investment worth it.
Corn production is heavily subsidized on several levels so accounting for its true cost is difficult, but it is extremely capital and chemical intensive.
Natural gas for vehicles is simple. You just need to take out the sulfur and the nonmethane gases that are valuable, like the noble gases, compress it and you are good to go. If you don’t need to recover the noble gases simply desulfurizing it makes for good motor fuel. A natural gas compressor can run on its own gas, making small scale compressor-to-tank stations fairly cost effective.
The expense is the compressor station and the tank that has to be fitted in the car. These are high pressure tanks and are not cheap, but their cost and service life are becoming more favorable with volume.
Sadly, we are going backward and not forward on CNG vehicles. Honda and Ford both had turnkey cars available in the last few years but not in the current one due to poor demand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPthZO0fCLg
250 million more of these potential rolling bombs on the road may be a bridge too far (pun intended). By the way, this video also answers the claims of the "laws of physics" branch of 9/11 Douchers who claim that burning petroleum products cannot cause steel structures to collapse.Replies: @Anonymous
I stand corrected. Thanks 113 and my apologies dad.
To me “social engineering” means fooling with people’s religious, sex or family life, not whether their car runs on methane or gasoline. It’s not an ethical, moral, or social issue per se.
Do you oppose the already onerous and colossal amount of motor vehicle and fuel regulations already in force?
Corn production is heavily subsidized on several levels so accounting for its true cost is difficult, but it is extremely capital and chemical intensive.
Natural gas for vehicles is simple. You just need to take out the sulfur and the nonmethane gases that are valuable, like the noble gases, compress it and you are good to go. If you don't need to recover the noble gases simply desulfurizing it makes for good motor fuel. A natural gas compressor can run on its own gas, making small scale compressor-to-tank stations fairly cost effective.
The expense is the compressor station and the tank that has to be fitted in the car. These are high pressure tanks and are not cheap, but their cost and service life are becoming more favorable with volume.
Sadly, we are going backward and not forward on CNG vehicles. Honda and Ford both had turnkey cars available in the last few years but not in the current one due to poor demand.Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
There are some serious safety concerns with CNG, which poses both decompression and explosion risks. When a tank of compressed natural gas ruptures, you get this:
250 million more of these potential rolling bombs on the road may be a bridge too far (pun intended). By the way, this video also answers the claims of the “laws of physics” branch of 9/11 Douchers who claim that burning petroleum products cannot cause steel structures to collapse.
It also takes a lot to rupture a CNG tank, whereas many cars use flimsy sheet metal or even plastic gasoline tanks. I bought an old Chevy truck and owned it for two years before discovering it had an aftermarket rotamolded plastic gas tank. I used to smoke cigars and hesitate to think what might have happened had I dropped a lit one and it rolled under the seat and the hot end hit the plastic tank. I sold the truck, as I was planning to anyway, and did tell the new owner about the aftermarket plastic gas tank. He was planning to make it into a "street truck" anyway and put in a tank under the bed so the underseat area could accomodate the subwoofer "kicker".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPthZO0fCLg
250 million more of these potential rolling bombs on the road may be a bridge too far (pun intended). By the way, this video also answers the claims of the "laws of physics" branch of 9/11 Douchers who claim that burning petroleum products cannot cause steel structures to collapse.Replies: @Anonymous
Yes, but gasoline also presents severe fire risks, however we are used to it. If natgas or propane or diesel or alcohols were the established fuels and the newfangled gasoline were introduced it would be banned for being a liquid fire hazard. Natural gas can cause horrendous explosions but often natgas leaks dissipate without incident. Propane is sort of the worst of both worlds-it’s a gas, but a heavy one that lies low and tends to stick around until sooner or later it finds an ignition point. Methane often disperses until it is too lean to ignite.
It also takes a lot to rupture a CNG tank, whereas many cars use flimsy sheet metal or even plastic gasoline tanks. I bought an old Chevy truck and owned it for two years before discovering it had an aftermarket rotamolded plastic gas tank. I used to smoke cigars and hesitate to think what might have happened had I dropped a lit one and it rolled under the seat and the hot end hit the plastic tank. I sold the truck, as I was planning to anyway, and did tell the new owner about the aftermarket plastic gas tank. He was planning to make it into a “street truck” anyway and put in a tank under the bed so the underseat area could accomodate the subwoofer “kicker”.
Memel people, like the rest of the German(-oriented) people/regions of this part of Europe, was Lutheran (not Catholic, as was/is the rest of Lithuania). Even those in Memel who identified as "Lithuanian-ethnicity, Lithuanian-language" in the 1920s census also identified as Lutheran, and it seems by a large majority. Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller is himself a Protestant (Methodist), which suggests a cultural inheritance from the Memel half of his family (if this is indeed correct).
Robert J. Schiller, Nobel Prize winner, on his grandfather:One possibility here is whichever ancestor took the name Shiller may have been taking the name of a wealthy patron family in the area whom they worked for, and the Baltic-Germans were once wealth. I know Latvians and Estonians sometimes did this. I wouldn't be surprised if Memel'ers did the same.
In any event, there is no indication that any of Robert Shiller's ancestry is Jewish. (Memel was 0.4% Jewish in the 1920s censuses; Lithuania's capital city Vilnius, typical of city in this region of Europe at the time, was as much as 40% Jewish around 1900, down to 25-30% by the 1930s).Replies: @Dan Hayes, @Steve Sailer, @anon
Robert Shiller definitely is and identifies as a Lithuanian-American as the linked article details (e.g. the name of his grandfather’s store in Detroit, and also his mother’s first name is that of a wife of one Grand Duke of Lithuania and mother of another in the 14th century, and a uniquely Lithuanian name). I doubt that a Litvak (a Lithuanian Jew) would use it to name his store or his daughter, especially in the U.S. in early 20th century. Her maiden name is that of a queen of Poland by marriage and Grand Duchess of Lithuania in the 16th century.
That said, his grandmother (or her sister) does not look Lithuanian, but rather vaguely Asiatic. Might be of a Lithuanian Tatar origin, like Charles Bronson. Some Tatars settled there in the 14th century around the old capital city.
Also, Lithuanian-Americans tend to vote Republican, so it’s not that surprising Shiller would support Trump, even if tacitly. Especially having grown up in Detroit in the 1960s.
It is possible that Robert Shiller is related, through his mother's side. People running that ethnic website would know.
in their dreams. The people who control everything will never allow another depression, But, they are not against killing lots of people, now. They , the bad guys, actually want to kill a lot of Americans when it is more convenient.
Wait till he gets elected President. Then it will be ALL CAPS ALL THE TIME!
Trump will look demure by comparison.
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/fG0vogPpqXU/hqdefault.jpgReplies: @Lagertha
he is my hero.
In California UCSD and UCSB have some super elite departments in high IQ fields but nobody really cares about them as undergraduate degrees.
*To bring this back to Mr. Sailer, I believe one of the reasons it became a stellar department is that Jerry Fodor was a huge opera fan so he decided he'd rather be at Rutgers than MIT/Harvard (he'd spent most of his career in Cambridge, MA)Replies: @anon
I know other former MIT or Harvard or outer Ivy League profs who took positions in/around NYC because they wanted to be able to go to the Met/Broadway shows on any night they felt like it. NYU for one has significantly built up certain departments in the last decade for that reason, and also in some cases because of the NYC gay scene. Of course, you have to be a “star” to be able to choose your institution like that, but most full or even more junior Harvard/MIT profs are “stars”.
Steve’s bud Pinker would have no trouble landing a job at any NYC/NJ university tomorrow, should he wish to do so.
Even CUNY, which most people think is just a community college, has elite departments in certain fields.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @PiltdownMan
Jerry Fodor IS the prestige (or was when he was younger and moved to Rutgers). Nobody in philosophy wondered if he was good because he was at Rutgers; everyone already knew who he was.
A British philosopher who went to Rutgers after Fodor remarked he was tired of all the second-rate professors at Oxbridge who just told each other how smart they were because they were at cool old buildings in Oxbridge. He said it was completely intellectually moribund partly for that reason. I think he might have said an older famous British philosopher told him the same thing.
I'm not endorsing his specific opinion on any particular department at Oxbridge at any exact time but he was a big deal philosopher who did feel that way.Replies: @Charles Pewitt
His father is listed as a Benjamin Peter Shiller, a.k.a. Bronislovas Petras Šileris, born early 1910s to George Shiller [b.1887] and Amelia Miller [b.1892], both of Lithuania. Nobel Prize-winner Shiller characterizes his paternal grandfather, in an aside during his book Finance and the Good Society, as an opponent of the Czarist regime who emigrated because Lithuania was then still a Russian province with little hope of independence (until the 1914 short war turned long and the 1917 communist cataclysm happened).
His mother is listed as Ruth Radsville (daughter of Vincas Radziwilas [b.1877] and Rosalia Serys [b.1880s?]), both of Lithuania, resident in Chicago from 191o? to 1916 and Detroit thereafter.
Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller is himself of Detroit upbringing.Funny, but that looks a lot like 'Sailer,' in (pseudo-)Latinized-medievalized form.
The Internet says Šileris is just the Lithuanian spelling of the German surname S(c)hiller. The Lithuanian wiki page 'Šileris' redirects to the Friedrich Schiller page.Replies: @Hail, @anon
There is a bunch of folks in Lithuania named Šileris (Lith version of Schiller/Shiller) that come up in a search as public officials, business people etc.. Not a common surname there, but not unheard of.
That comment calls for this video, which I hope Mr. Sailer will indulge.
That said, his grandmother (or her sister) does not look Lithuanian, but rather vaguely Asiatic. Might be of a Lithuanian Tatar origin, like Charles Bronson. Some Tatars settled there in the 14th century around the old capital city.
Also, Lithuanian-Americans tend to vote Republican, so it's not that surprising Shiller would support Trump, even if tacitly. Especially having grown up in Detroit in the 1960s.Replies: @PiltdownMan
Jackie Kennedy’s sister, Lee Radziwill, was married to a Polish-Lithuanian prince, Stanislaw Radziwill.
It is possible that Robert Shiller is related, through his mother’s side. People running that ethnic website would know.
Steve's bud Pinker would have no trouble landing a job at any NYC/NJ university tomorrow, should he wish to do so.Replies: @anonymous2space, @anonymous
Yes, NYU went from joke to a very serious school in my lifetime because of its location. It’s a place that can attract donations and professors and students. USC to a lesser extent is the LA version of that, I guess.
Even CUNY, which most people think is just a community college, has elite departments in certain fields.
Steve's bud Pinker would have no trouble landing a job at any NYC/NJ university tomorrow, should he wish to do so.Replies: @anonymous2space, @anonymous
And if you’re a star, you don’t really care if Rutgers sounds good.
Jerry Fodor IS the prestige (or was when he was younger and moved to Rutgers). Nobody in philosophy wondered if he was good because he was at Rutgers; everyone already knew who he was.
A British philosopher who went to Rutgers after Fodor remarked he was tired of all the second-rate professors at Oxbridge who just told each other how smart they were because they were at cool old buildings in Oxbridge. He said it was completely intellectually moribund partly for that reason. I think he might have said an older famous British philosopher told him the same thing.
I’m not endorsing his specific opinion on any particular department at Oxbridge at any exact time but he was a big deal philosopher who did feel that way.
He seemed well mannered and his surname was Anglo-Norman.
Even CUNY, which most people think is just a community college, has elite departments in certain fields.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @PiltdownMan
NYU has an attractive macro location for a college (New York City) and an attractive micro location (Greenwich Village). USC has the macro location but not the micro location. (It’s not as bad as it once was, but still.)
Even CUNY, which most people think is just a community college, has elite departments in certain fields.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @PiltdownMan
City College, which is the flagship college in the CUNY system, has always gotten respect in New York City circles for over a century. It recruited the philosopher Bertrand Russell in the late 1940s, but notoriously, backed off under pressure from the Catholic Church and a lawsuit from a parent who was worried about his views on marriage and free love.
To quote CUNY’s web page
Not bad, at all, for a municipally funded college system. But you would expect that in hindsight, given the concentration of talent in New York City, which has a population exceeding that of some of the smaller Northern European countries.
I know a Schneider (tailor) family in Switzerland that changed their name to the Latin equivalent (Sartorius) when the family fortunes improved. You should be able to trace your Swiss origins, Steve. At a talk in Basel, the inventor of PCR, Kary Mullis, mentioned that when he received the Nobel, he was contacted by a representative of the Muhlis family. They had correctly traced him to a family member that migrated to the US in the 18th or 19th century.
First of all we should be caring about the inflation-adjusted GDP growth per capita, not raw GDP growth. Growing GDP by 50% in nominal terms is not a good thing if the population increases by 70% and prices go up by 30%. We should also probably be looking at medians and not means. Doing this paints a much less rosy picture of the last 10+ years. And a much less rosy picture of the effect of mass immigration.
Secondly the underlying fundamental economic growth rate is driven by technological and demographic factors. If the fundamentals are good the busts will be followed by booms that snap the economy back to its fundamental trajectory. Rewarding or punishing incumbents based on whether they are in the right place at the right time in the business cycle (or not) is silly.
Thirdly elected politicians don't have a huge amount of control over the economy, particularly in the short term. Chairman of the fed is probably more powerful. President is in the top 5, sure, but unless you can identify a specific harmful or salutatory policy of his, it's silly to laud/blame them for economic changes. Even then the effect of a policy often takes > 10 years to make itself felt. MFN for China has probably been a disaster for the US economically and geopolitically but we didn't know that until recently (and we still don't know it for sure, and can never know it for sure.)
Fourthly GDP probably correlates with quality of life but is not the same thing. For example consider the situation where you have a nice community with excellent schools and all the mothers are SAHMs. Then suppose the school system is wrecked by a refugee influx, and everyone pulls their kids out of the local schools and puts them in private schools, and all the moms get second jobs to help pay for the tuition. Sounds bad, right? In this scenario GDP goes up.
Another example: suppose everyone is eating unhealthy restaurant food all the time because everyone works 80 hour weeks and doesn't have time to cook--great for GDP. Then everyone gets so fat that they start buying diet-advice books and get gym memberships that they never use--even better for GDP. None of this works and they have to get bariatric surgery--OMG economy is doing great. So much earning and spending. Economic miracle. Hail Ben Bernanke.
GDP is a terrible, terrible metric.Replies: @JimB, @Kronos, @JudgeSmails, @SFG, @JudgeSmails, @Jim bob Lassiter, @AnotherDad, @Bill
But you’re not the first person to notice this (or even the thousandth). GDP is a wonderful, wonderful metric if you get your living by taking vig off of market transactions, as, for example, Wall St does or Washington does. Every time some production moves from the home to the market, businesses have to expand, capital must be raised, and tax revenue increases. Similarly with immigration.
In theory Trump could do the same and make monetary policy a political tool of whatever party is in power. Sad thing is if he tried to do it hed be Oswalded by the bankers.Replies: @Bill
Monetary policy (and fiscal policy for that matter) are already political tools of whatever party is in power. This even has a name, “the political business cycle,” which you can google and which Britannica (which still exists!?) even has an article on. Here is a paper with a very readable abstract: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5154585_Does_the_Fed_Contribute_to_a_Political_Business_Cycle
It’s interesting that Trump uses such crude, public methods to get Powell to dance to his tune, but the Fed dancing to the POTUS’s tune is not new.
No, the Case-Shiller Index is not a big deal at all. It gets the names Case and Shiller in the news a lot, but that’s it.
Jerry Fodor IS the prestige (or was when he was younger and moved to Rutgers). Nobody in philosophy wondered if he was good because he was at Rutgers; everyone already knew who he was.
A British philosopher who went to Rutgers after Fodor remarked he was tired of all the second-rate professors at Oxbridge who just told each other how smart they were because they were at cool old buildings in Oxbridge. He said it was completely intellectually moribund partly for that reason. I think he might have said an older famous British philosopher told him the same thing.
I'm not endorsing his specific opinion on any particular department at Oxbridge at any exact time but he was a big deal philosopher who did feel that way.Replies: @Charles Pewitt
I had a professor of English ancestry at RU who went to the London School of Economics and got his doctorate at Cornell University and he taught British Politics and other things at Rutgers. I had a Loon Mountain shirt on one day and he asked about it. I told him it’s a mountain in New England. He was a good professor.
He seemed well mannered and his surname was Anglo-Norman.
We got this brain-dead baby boomer Ann Coulter to come around on immigration, and we’ll get this Ann Coulter broad to understand central banker shysterism too!
Without central banker shyster interventionism and monetary extremism, the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate will implode immediately. Got That Cornell Woman Ann Coulter!
Attention Steve Sailer:
Please moderate my unmoderated comment on Shiller on through the whim moderation machine — it is at #84.
This Shiller guy and corrupt globalizer economists like him and the corporate propaganda outlets are why gals like Ann Coulter don’t know crud about central banker shysterism.
First of all, the Germans themselves had this (certain categories, or -man instead of -mann), and the Jews simply waited until it was legal for them to obscure their imposed names. Secondly this gets into the weeds on a non-problem with potential externalities. We want to be able to identify societal subverters, a group with enormous but incomplete overlap with Jews, so identifying, say, Dennis Prager’s Jewishness is an own goal, because he’s a societal … uh, upholder.
or more money in their wallet?Replies: @Papa
I’m glad that point didn’t only stand out to me, but my take was a bit different; that these manic and deranged liberals simply have no ability to comprehend reality anymore, so they just say nonsensical things because it’s the only way they can interpret things in their mentally ill state.
Please point to a single person at a trump rally the would indicate that they’re emulating some kind of Trump modeled luxury. Of course he’s a motivational speaker … that’s the job of a good President, and it drives them insane like mindless zombies that it’s the opposite of the dark lord obama.
We are actually dealing with a kind of weaponized mental virus that is spread and infects people like some kind of real world zombie apocalypse that is eating its way through society. They simply cannot comprehend reality anymore as their minds turn to mush.
The Further Adventures Of Nick Danger
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loch
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cMkoHt73loQReplies: @Not Raul
Thanks.