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From my new column in Taki’s Magazine:

Let’s Be Over and Done in ’21
Steve Sailer

December 16, 2020

It’s only natural to be frightened of getting a needle stuck in your arm loaded with a novel vaccine developed at such a pace that few besides the optimistic President Trump believed it could be rolled out this year.

Likewise, it’s common to be either hypochondriacal about a new infectious disease or dismissive of its dangers. A huge number of Americans assume COVID poses an apocalyptic menace, while others try to loudly reassure themselves that they must be virtually invulnerable.

My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.

It’s important to note that COVID is a crisis of moderate magnitude, neither “Just the flu, bro” nor the end of the world (as I will demonstrate below). The problem is that it’s been very hard to come up with a measured, moderate response proportionate to the dangers of an infection that spreads exponentially and thus tends to be either growing or shrinking.

As Tyler Cowen has pointed out, it’s very hard to fight coronavirus to a draw. It’s probably beyond our skill set. Instead, at any point in time, the place where you live is either winning over it or losing to it.

Fortunately, with the delivery of the first of several vaccines, we are now finally at the point where victory is in sight, assuming Americans don’t botch the opportunity to put this whole awful experience in our past. But a large enough number of us must choose to win.

The two quite similar vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna have proved themselves highly effective. From FDA analyses of their clinical trials:

Moderna vaccine: Only eleven COVID cases were seen in the vaccine group versus 185 in the equal-size placebo group.

Pfizer vaccine: Eight cases in the vaccine group, 162 cases in the placebo group.

Combined: Nineteen cases in the vaccine group, 347 in the placebo group. (That’s not an insignificant sample size.)

Read the whole thing there.

 
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  1. What’s changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.

    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.

    • Agree: Charon, Kyle, Polistra
    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Nodwink
    @HammerJack

    They opened it up again, which was the first time I thought the "lab accident" theorists might be onto something.

    Replies: @Polistra, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack


    What’s changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.
     
    It's at least equally as likely COVID-19 is a "gain of function" experiment that was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's (WIV) BSL-4 lab facilities. This is true mad scientist "research" where through various means a pathogen is given better functionality in humans, or in one of the first notorious experiments, only done in a BSL-2 lab, bird flu was manually passed through a series of ferrets until it transmitted well in them, which likely would include more mammals like humans, ferrets being a favorite animal model for respiratory viruses.

    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research. Note we need a world wide end to this sort of research, which some have claimed has never produced any beneficial results, plenty of other countries allow it, and the PRC is hardly the only country to leak pathogens from their labs. And the biomedical community is terrified that politicians will learn just how very dangerous a lot of their work is, how careless they are at times, and that they'll be subject to draconian restrictions. So they're denying any possibility of this being the source of SARS-CoV-2, and so far getting away with it.

    Replies: @415 reasons, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Mr. Anon, @davidgmillsatty, @Stonewall Jackson

    , @Guy De Champlagne
    @HammerJack

    China has every reason to keep pumping out pandemics as long as they're able to respond to them quickly and competently while the US just shows off its signature buffoonery and basketcasery. Maybe by the next pandemic they'll blow us out of the water with their vaccine development like China was able to with every other part of their COVID response this time.

    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China. This virus and the responses from the two countries has been the best advertisement for 'Made in China' that they could have hoped for.

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @fnn, @WJ, @Keypusher, @Hhsiii

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack

    Excellent article in every way, although of course you could have scaremongered more about morbidity, and perhaps pointed out people generally have a choice of an uncontrolled wild type infection involving zillions of cells, or a controlled real or quasi-infection (virus vector or mRNA), or protein plus adjuvants!!!, although the Operation Warp Speed big bet on Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline is requiring a restart, their dosing for the elderly "produced 'insufficient immune response,'" see the newer formulations of the same style flu vaccines for this population, four times the protein antigens as the normal, my father certainly noticed the difference.

    As previously discussed on iSteve, your point in the article about giving our betters less time and fodder to engineer a Great Reset is worthy of serious consideration. In the US, if enough people don't get either natural or vaccine immunity (the former the term for getting the wild type infection), in Blue states it'll be "lockdowns forever," or until they run out of money, people willing to tolerate their shenanigans, etc. Depopulating NYC sounds great in theory, but we know from the Californication of various western states, plus see New Hampshire, that these people will bring the attitudes that turned their former hellholes to wherever they decamp to. And who knows what a Biden or Harris in the White House might try to impose on the entire country, the former having previously warned us about a "dark winter." And he's probably not all wrong....

    For those worrying about the safety of mRNA vaccines, it's clear almost all those on iSteve simply aren't going to be eligible for the first tranche of mRNA vaccines, so they'll have a lot more time to learn from the data of the Phase III trial participants, and for those one in million problems that you're unlikely to find when you only give vaccines to a few tens of thousands, from the Phase IV experiences of tens of millions getting the vaccines starting in the last couple of days.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @Rex Little, @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @HammerJack


    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.
     
    No re-do in '22!
    , @Hapalong Cassidy
    @HammerJack

    Nothing changed in China. Now Fort Detrick, on the other hand . . .

  2. As pointed out in Strategy Page, political and military leaders are mostly over 60, so this resulted in the hystericalness of the reaction.
    Also, the wet markets will probably cause another pandemic in the 2030s.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Redneck farmer

    How do you know that Covid-19 originated in a wet market?

    , @Johnny Smoggins
    @Redneck farmer

    Also the fact that western nations are now largely run by women, so extreme caution and hypochondria are to be expected.

    Replies: @Mr Mox

    , @AndrewR
    @Redneck farmer

    In the 2030s? Awfully specific. Do you know something we don't?

    Replies: @Dago Shoes, @Redneck farmer

  3. @HammerJack
    What's changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.

    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.

    Replies: @Nodwink, @That Would Be Telling, @Guy De Champlagne, @That Would Be Telling, @Hypnotoad666, @Hapalong Cassidy

    They opened it up again, which was the first time I thought the “lab accident” theorists might be onto something.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @Nodwink

    If they really opened it up again, it could indicate that they realize it's pointless to keep one closed when dozens of others remain open in just that region alone.

    Or the Chinese just might find it difficult to give up old nasty habits. It's hardly their only one.

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Nodwink

    Lab accident always seemed most likely to me. Here is my impeccable logic:

    THE CASE FOR NATURAL EMERGENCE:

    The Chinese are filthy. They eat bats, and bugs, they shit in the street, and they don't wash their hands. Their cities are crowded and unsanitary. Of course they spawn new viruses!

    THE CASE AGAINST NATURAL EMERGENCE:

    You can say the same of India, Africa, South America, the Middle East, the rest of Asia, and parts of Europe and North America. Where are all their viruses? Why is China punching above its weight here? Why are we singling them out?

    THE CASE FOR A LAB ACCIDENT:

    1. This research takes place in the west
    2. Western labs have a history of safety problems
    3. This research also takes place in China
    4. However unsafe the labs in America are, the Chinese labs will be twice as bad

  4. It is always a very good thing to trust whatever Bill Gates hawks. The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.

    • Agree: Cloudbuster
    • Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Jake

    Plus, despite what his detractors claim, he has vast expertise with viruses. Even this retCONned flu.

    , @U. Ranus
    @Jake


    It is always a very good thing to trust whatever Bill Gates hawks
     
    In case this isn't widespread knowledge, here's how Gates and BioNTech are connected (from BioNTech SE's quarterly report):

    On August 30, 2019, BioNTech entered into agreements with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (“BMGF”) under which BioNTech is required to perform certain research and development activities. The issuance of 3,038,674 ordinary shares with the nominal amount of k€ 3,039 was registered with the commercial register (Handelsregister) on September 26, 2019. As result of the transaction the capital reserve increased by k€46,826.

    [...]

    If we commit a specified material breach under the letter agreement with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, or BMGF, and such breach remains uncured after a specified period of time (if curable), we are required to either (i) repurchase the shares held by BMGF or locate a third party to purchase the shares from BMGF, in either case at a price that is the greater of the original purchase price or the fair market value of the shares at the time of repurchase, or (ii) if we cannot meet the requirements under (i) (e.g., because we do not have sufficient cash reserves), then we must use our best efforts to effect BMGF’s withdrawal right as soon as practicable, which may mean acquiring the shares in tranches over time. If we are required to repurchase BMGF’s shares, our financial position could be materially and adversely affected.
     

    , @Paul Jolliffe
    @Jake

    “We’ve got to help out with the tools now so they are not faced with an impossible situation later.”

    https://www.gatesnotes.com/about-bill-gates/a-conversation-with-bill-gates-population-growth

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @Jake


    The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.
     
    As the saying goes: "The problem with self-made men is that they tend to worship their creator."

    Actually, these guys have a lot of intelligence and ability. But they suffer from the common delusion that "if I am a genius in field A, then I must be a genius in all other fields as well."

    It's like the nuclear scientists who were the smartest men on earth when it came to physics, but whose ideas on geopolitics and economics was a lot of rainbows and unicorns nonsense about having a benevolent one-world dictatorship of experts who would hold nuclear weapons in trust and use technocratic solutions to fix all the world's problems.

    Replies: @36 ulster

    , @Alden
    @Jake

    Gates just issued a statement that he believes the epidemic will go on to 2022. Who’s he? Not a nurse Dr public health statistician epidemiologist nothing to do with health issues.

    I never believed covid hoax is a real disease. My believe it’s a hoax comes from excellent authority. The NYSlimes, Washington Post CNN the entire media claimed its the new Black Plague that will kill hundreds of millions.

    Since every word in the MSM is a lie, I know covid is a hoax. Whatever the MSM claims, the opposite is true. Trayvon Martin Mike Brown Freddie Gray George Floyd we’re all sweet innocent blacks intentionally murdered by racist Whites. Whatever the MSM says, the opposite is true.

    TSA really only affects air travelers. Few have the money or desire to buy a brand new electric hybrid Save Mother Earth car every other year. Global warming isn’t accelerating that anyone can notice or be affected by. Garbage and trash separate cans, criminalization of smoking tobacco, legalization of smoking weed TPTB, need to come up with a new way to harass and disrupt our lives every few years.

    This one is serious. Not the disease but the power mad domination and control freaks . Fauci states we might have to wear masks after vaccination.

    Whatever minion of Satan invented covid hoax masks and school and business closures is a mega genius. Masks for everyone, TSA lines to enter stores and obedience to dictatorial government orders that change every day.

  5. We should want life to go back to the way it was before, and the faster the better.

    We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. The countries that were hardest hit by SARS are the countries that were the best prepared for COVID because they did just that. It would be a huge mistake and a great tragedy to just go back to normal, learn absolutely nothing, and comfort ourselves with a bunch of just-so stories about how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography.

    • Replies: @Jake
    @Guy De Champlagne

    Have you not figured out that they have been lumping flu deaths with Covid deaths? And they have been attributing to death by Covid people who have been dying from cancer for years and caught Covid at the very end?

    Everything about this pandemic has been greatly overblown, with more than a few outright lies tossed in. Why? Who?

    Follow the money and the political power.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Guy De Champlagne, @Keypusher

    , @ken
    @Guy De Champlagne

    But part of that learn from this moment would have to be an admittal that the response to COVID was crappy and our leaders will never do that.

    , @Pop Warner
    @Guy De Champlagne


    how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography
     
    But those are the reasons. As the US is a democratic country and very federalized it means that states or cities can openly resist the federal government to everybody's detriment. China's authoritarian system allowed them to completely seal off Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province with absolutely no pushback. Meanwhile, Cuomo threw a massive fit when Rhode Island was screening New York license plates for entry (when the virus was largely contained in New York). And he had judges backing him up effectively preventing the kind of response China had.

    I knew from the beginning that China would handle this better than the US. Their autocratic system can respond much quicker to crises because they don't have to worry about excessive legalism, factions intentionally hurting themselves to spite their opponents, and individual liberties. The US, on the other hand, had some politicians downplay the virus to keep the economy afloat (Trump), and others downplayed or exacerbated the death toll because it would help their party's chances in the upcoming election (democrats, especially mayors and governors where the virus hit the hardest and who put infected patients in nursing homes). Any Chinaesque measure Trump could have taken that would be effective would have been immediately challenged and resisted as we saw all throughout 2020 - Kamala Harris said in the same sentence that she would reject any vaccine Trump endorsed but accept any vaccine Fauci endorsed. His "leave it to the states" strategy meant that the pandemic would never really stop as it went to new places who had different standards. Then the same politicians who (eventually) were the most psychotic about shutdowns completely flipped when it came to peaceful riots against white people and endorsed thousands of people packing the streets, because I guess corona-chan takes a knee for racism. Who needs a vaccine when Saint Floyd protects us?

    All this pandemic really did was expose the incompetence and disunity of the United States. It showed that there is absolutely no sense of unity or camaraderie between American citizens, and there is nothing that can stop the eventual collapse. The Antonine Plague dealt Rome a crushing blow, and it seems the US is also in the Late Imperial Period. Our leaders have been shown to be not just hypocrites but murderous hypocrites, and our media is willing to lie in every way to protect them.

    Replies: @vinteuil

    , @Prester John
    @Guy De Champlagne

    "We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. "

    Our first opportunity was after the anthrax scare which followed 9/11. I recall hearing several scientists ring the alarm bells, saying that the time had arrived for this country to gear up in the event of a real bio-emergency i.e. a full-blown attack or a pandemic). Three administrations slept through 20 years without doing anything.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    , @Polynikes
    @Guy De Champlagne

    We should be revoking all emergency authority from all executives to prevent the next round of society crippling measures that do nothing to stop a virus.

    , @Rob
    @Guy De Champlagne

    The countries that best handled SARS-CoV-2 were East Asian countries where the elites have not abandoned the masses to the vicissitudes of outsourcing and the endless hordes of aliens both ‘legal’ and illegal. That helped in several ways. Firstly, they still have significant manufacturing, meaning they could produce enough masks early enough in the pandemic that majority masking made the plague minor. The US no longer has the ability to make masks, having outsourced that to the Asian Tigers. They don’t have the legacy population of surly blacks who have trouble obeying any laws, so they kept did not shelter in place, or whatever that was called. The elites in Asia have not betrayed the peopke by importing 100 million aliens, who, like blacks, both kept spreading the disease and have the same tropical peoples’ vulnerability to respiratory diseases that blacks have.

    Because their media had not been on a partisan tear against the legacy majority of the country, and an intensified propaganda campaign against the President and his deplorable voters, so masking did not become a partisan issue, with a huge number of people denying even the existence of COVID, because the media lies and gaslights them about everything else. In East Asia, the elites and media are more trustworthy, so citizens trusted them more than Americans trusted our elite.

    Their elite and public health ‘experts’ did not spend the first month of the pandemic lying to them, telling them masks did not work to slow the spread of COVID.

    Their permanent government did not see an opportunity to oust the Orange Man Bad, so their FDA-equivalents did not create a defective test kit, and decline to approve others’ tests. That allowed the bad orange man to claim that we did not have a plague on our hands.

    They don’t have a political party whose only goal is breaking the government. A party whose legislative leader’s only idea of how to respond to a plague and the mass unemployment it caused was to suggest a tax cut.

    Their political establishment is no so deficient that a half-witted clown got elected President. A clown who did not wear a mask, because, like his base, the media lies to and about him constantly, so he did not believe that wearing a mask was important. Probably he thought it made him look ghey. So he got COVID, along with many others in the White House. Again, because the partisan media made masking a partisan issue, because they people remembered their partisan propaganda serving the elite. The media spread and amplified the establishments’ early lies about masks.

    Our problems are much deeper and larger in scale than our D- response to COVID. Far worse than merely ignoring SARS. East Asia handled SARS-CoV-2 so well because they are developed, first world countries. We used to be. All COVID did was expose how deep the rot is.

    Replies: @Guy De Champlagne, @utu

  6. @HammerJack
    What's changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.

    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.

    Replies: @Nodwink, @That Would Be Telling, @Guy De Champlagne, @That Would Be Telling, @Hypnotoad666, @Hapalong Cassidy

    What’s changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.

    It’s at least equally as likely COVID-19 is a “gain of function” experiment that was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s (WIV) BSL-4 lab facilities. This is true mad scientist “research” where through various means a pathogen is given better functionality in humans, or in one of the first notorious experiments, only done in a BSL-2 lab, bird flu was manually passed through a series of ferrets until it transmitted well in them, which likely would include more mammals like humans, ferrets being a favorite animal model for respiratory viruses.

    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research. Note we need a world wide end to this sort of research, which some have claimed has never produced any beneficial results, plenty of other countries allow it, and the PRC is hardly the only country to leak pathogens from their labs. And the biomedical community is terrified that politicians will learn just how very dangerous a lot of their work is, how careless they are at times, and that they’ll be subject to draconian restrictions. So they’re denying any possibility of this being the source of SARS-CoV-2, and so far getting away with it.

    • Thanks: MEH 0910
    • Replies: @415 reasons
    @That Would Be Telling

    I’ve recently become convinced that Peter Daszak’s evil EcoHealth group was behind a plan to put a pangolin RBD into a SARS related bat virus as a demonstration of the pandemic potential of wildlife smuggling.

    They had done similar “car and mouse” experiments making murine/feline chimeric CoVs.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bies.202000240

    Now, of course, Daszak, the person probably most responsible in the world for unleashing this pandemic, is on the WHO Committee to investigate its origins.

    , @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @That Would Be Telling

    I don't think it's "equally likely," I think it's absolutely the case.

    I do some consulting work with the academic science community and "gain of function" experiments in the virology world have been both hugely controversial AND hugely desired by virologists, the same way a 16 year old boy lusts after the cutest girl in the class.

    Go here:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00210-5

    It's pretty well known that Fauci and the NIH shifted a bunch of this sort of work to the Chinese because, well, if they can make iPhones in sweat shops, what's the problem with crazy genetically altered bugs? In my view, it's the sort of juicy story an enterprising journalist should be licking his chops at, but attacking Saint Anthony and his nutty cabal at the NIAID is clearly verboten.

    I have no doubt that the Chinese are working on bioweapons, but they also see the Pharma business as a huge economic opportunity for them -- it's the perfect industry for an Asian country full of above average IQ folk who have no problem droning in the lab for 30 years.

    The Wuhan is almost certainly an instance where the "gain of function" work was sloppy at the gleaming really modern Wuhan Institute of Virology, and the little bugger escaped when someone forgot to close the door on the way out of the Level 4 lab.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @That Would Be Telling


    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research.
     
    My understanding was that a moratorium on new-starts in GoF research was put into place in 2014. Already funded projects were suspended for a couple of months for evaluation and then resumed in 2015. The one project you mentioned, funded by NIAID (and Fauci is reportedly a big proponent of GoF research) was done in collaboration with the WIV; the first phase involved collecting and evaluating samples and the second phase, started in the summer of 2019 (and terminated without much comment although evidently with some panic in April of 2020) involved Gain-of-Function research. But then, you know how research often works. A researcher asking for funding to start working on something in year x, has often already started working on it in year x-1 or x-2. The best way to deliver on your promise is to promise something that you've already done. Who really knows how much GoF work on corona viruses has already been done (or by whom)?
    , @davidgmillsatty
    @That Would Be Telling

    Except that Italy is now in the lead for earliest human infection, beating China by several months

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33176598/

    "SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%)....

    Replies: @J.Ross

    , @Stonewall Jackson
    @That Would Be Telling

    Well stated post. I can't follow dear Unz's argument as it usually takes him a thousand words to say anything roundabout, but his statement that covid is blowback to the US is better explained by you than rather the idea that the stupid US military had anything to do with it. It's biomedical research blowback not some military plot. The Chinese and Pfizer and Fauci want to make money.

  7. My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.

    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to “get the damn pandemic over and done with.” It’s given them previously undreamed-of powers — the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election… and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won’t be able to milk COVID-19 forever… but there’s always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the “solution.” They’re going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    • Disagree: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Hannah Katz
    @Dr. X

    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter. F Fauci.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Barnard, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Travis

    , @Jake
    @Dr. X

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people's suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    Replies: @MikeCLT, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR, @Known Fact, @Anonymous, @Magic Dirt Resident, @Richard B

    , @BB753
    @Dr. X

    Covid-19 is the best thing that has happened to our elites. Why would they want to end it, and what makes you think that the cure won't be worse than the vaccine? When did Steve Sailer become so naive?

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    , @Aardvark
    @Dr. X

    Earlier it was with 911 which is being milked to eternity. Enhanced screening and X-rays and the whole lot. The official narrative still that a bunch of Saudis did it. So as a revenge we want to Iraq and Afghanistan rather than Saudi Arabia. Oh, and never mind that WTC 7 was announced by BBC 20 minutes before it actually imploded and wasn't hit by a plane etc. That was caused by something something shut up about it already.

    With COVID, we have seen all along that government officials at all levels have been seen not wearing their masks, not staying home, not social distancing. It's all do as we say, not as we do and don't pay attention to or scrutinize what we do. That's why I haven't taken it that serious, they don't... Never mind the wide swath of economic destruction that has been forced on us.

    , @Old and Grumpy
    @Dr. X

    Supposedly there are now new strains of Covid 19. It will never end, nor is it meant to. However if you want to live in a pod and eat bugs and weeds, yes the vaccine will be your means to your dystopian utopia.

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Dr. X

    Right, Dr. X. Mr. Sailer tells us to "man up", but as this country turns into a Gulag that can be LOCKDOWNed at will, 10 years from now, Americans, if you should even be calling them that then, may wonder why their ancestors didn't man up over the years and fight Totalitarianism. I doubt they'll be able to get ahold of any Solzhenitsyn books by then, but if so, they will wonder why we didn't learn anything from certain parts of that book.

    If you want something to compare the mentality that you well-describe here, just travel by air and look at the TSA bullshit that has been going on for 19 years. That hasn't ended yet. One of those grannies could be THE ONE to try to TERRORIZE us. (I just saw one granny the day before yesterday that could barely lift her arms off the armrests of her wheelchair, so her family had to hold up her arms for the search. #Sickening!)

    Now at the airports, besides those "TSA requires ..." announcements over and over, there are now "CDC guidelines say ..." announcements. Does Mr. Sailer think this will ever just stop because the Kung Flu PanicFest has been curtailed due to "being over and done". Government programs are hardly ever over and done, especially when they involve more control and less freedom for Americans.

    Replies: @Redman, @Joe Stalin

    , @Bragadocious
    @Dr. X


    the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation
     
    If only they were doing that. One check for $1200. Meanwhile other industrialized nations are covering 70, 80 or 90 percent of lost wages and business losses caused by lockdowns. And in the midst of this unfathomable government fuckery and sadistic miserliness, Rubio pours salt on the wound with this:

    https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1337478628888678404

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    , @JohnnyWalker123
    @Dr. X

    I hope you're wrong, but I fear you might be right.

    Replies: @wren

    , @vinteuil
    @Dr. X


    The last thing the powers-that-be want is to “get the damn pandemic over and done with.” It’s given them previously undreamed-of powers — the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election… and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process...They’re going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.
     
    Precisely so.

    I spent a couple of years as an intern in the bioethics department at the National Institutes of Health. My immediate bosses were Zeke Emanuel & Christine Grady (aka Mrs. Anthony Fauci).

    We all really need to understand what guys like Zeke Emanuel & Anthony Fauci are like. They are not like you or me. They are high on power. They live for control - total control over every aspect of everyone's life, everywhere & forever.

    For them, the expansion of government power is not an unfortunate necessity in a time of emergency. It is the realization of all their fondest dreams.

    And, with the "election" of Biden/Harris, they are now in the position to ensure that we'll never, ever, be "over and done" with the present state of emergency.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Abolish_public_education

  8. Shouldn’t there be a cutoff where if someone is young and healthy enough they should just get infected with the virus rather than get some expensive and scarce rush job experimental vaccine with an awfully cancery seeming delivery mechanism?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Guy De Champlagne


    Shouldn’t there be a cutoff where if someone is young and healthy enough they should just get infected with the virus rather than get some expensive and scarce rush job experimental vaccine
     
    mRNA vaccines are not the sort of rush jobs you're making them out to be, except in two ways: based on previous research, including against SARS type coronaviruses, animal testing was started in parallel with human Phase I trials, a risk for a very few humans that paid off fantastically.

    And the FDA using their long existing Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) mechanism to allow them to be used now, before enough data is gathered for licensure for general populations, which will almost certainly come, or not, by the time those "young and healthy enough" are even able to get these vaccines.

    with an awfully cancery seeming delivery mechanism?
     
    The mRNA vaccines are the single most precise and exact simulation of a real COVID-19 infection that's the mechanism of what I call "active" vaccines, the previous ones using "live" whole viruses that have either had their fangs removed or their ability to reproduce gimped (and one of the latter from Janssen is coming along nicely we hear, is in Phase III trials; ignore the AZ/Oxford clown show for a long time, and Sputnik V has great theory, but became a political football).

    Just like the wild type virus, they deposit their lipids and payload of stabilized spike protein coding mRNA and nothing else into cells, but only a small number of cells, and the mRNA that hijacks these cells won't last for very long. Compare to the wild type infection where zillions of cells get infected, sometimes all over the body, hijacked for a long time to pump out full viruses, and in all cases these cells get killed dead by a proper immune system response, not counting those that self-destruct after being too hard used by the virus. You're somehow thinking a "natural," uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    Of course, a lot of the above is theory, but it's being experimentally proven in Phase I-III trials, and now in Phase IV as they're be given to highest priority populations.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Guy De Champlagne

  9. OT: The world is starting to tell “Dumb American” jokes

    For example, “Textbooks (1) China, Age 4 ‘Solving Ordinary Differential Equations II’
    (2) USA, Age 4 ‘The Gay B.C.s by M.L. Webb’ (Courtesy of David Zhang on Twitter)

    The United States is increasingly becoming a target of worldwide ridicule because
    of its obsession with LGBT issues, childish level of math education, growing
    squalor of its cities, and most recently, the incompetent handling of the
    pandemic. Britain is becoming the next target of ridicule. Its mishandling
    of Brexit does not help

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @James O'Meara
    @Anon 2

    Brexit is not being "mishandled". It is being handled superbly, just the way the Elite want it.

    https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=22209

    , @Kyle
    @Anon 2

    The Chinese text book for 4 year olds is an english language diffy-q textbook. Everyone in China is just following the lead of smart successful Americans. How do we get everyone in America to do that?

  10. @HammerJack
    What's changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.

    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.

    Replies: @Nodwink, @That Would Be Telling, @Guy De Champlagne, @That Would Be Telling, @Hypnotoad666, @Hapalong Cassidy

    China has every reason to keep pumping out pandemics as long as they’re able to respond to them quickly and competently while the US just shows off its signature buffoonery and basketcasery. Maybe by the next pandemic they’ll blow us out of the water with their vaccine development like China was able to with every other part of their COVID response this time.

    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China. This virus and the responses from the two countries has been the best advertisement for ‘Made in China’ that they could have hoped for.

    • LOL: Kyle
    • Troll: Clyde
    • Replies: @Ozymandias
    @Guy De Champlagne


    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China
     
    It's true, nothing says quality like "Made In China."
    , @fnn
    @Guy De Champlagne

    It also means the end of "liberal democracy." We will all have to have Chinese-style totalitarian systems in place to combat the next pandemic-which may come at any time. Pretty soon (if not already), "liberal democracy" will mean nothing more than special privileges for non-whites, immigrants and trans people. Oh, and possibly faked elections with non-verifiable results.

    , @WJ
    @Guy De Champlagne

    Our response was not to literally weld people's houses shut, with the occupants inside. Our response was not to seed the rest of the world with the virus while restricting travel internally. Our response wasn't to lie about every aspect of the virus including it's origins.

    , @Keypusher
    @Guy De Champlagne

    Congrats on the “Troll” tag. It means “I have no answer to your post, and I’m REALLY angry about that.”

    , @Hhsiii
    @Guy De Champlagne

    I bet what China noticed is that the American stock market is at an all time high.

  11. “Botched”, there’s an interesting word. Democrat elites brainwashed their base into thinking that Trump “botched” the pandemic. In truth, he quite literally saved the world.
    It’s pretty clear from circumstantial evidence that he set an outrageous goal, provided the resources, and removed barriers. That last part, accomplished with his typical tact, made a lot of enemies and may have cost him the election.

    Al Gore gets a lot of mocking for “inventing the internet”. Of course he didn’t, any more than Kennedy invented the Saturn V. But let’s give leadership credit where credit is due . Do we get a Christmas vaccine with President Hillary?

    • Replies: @peterike
    @Dr. DoomNGloom


    Do we get a Christmas vaccine with President Hillary?
     
    With President Hillary we wouldn't have had a "pandemic" in the first place. Just a bad flu year.

    Replies: @Polistra

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Dr. DoomNGloom

    For those not in the know, can you explain or provide a link that explains how Trump facilitated the vaccine?

    Replies: @Dr. DoomNGloom

  12. It’s important to note that COVID is a crisis of moderate magnitude, neither “Just the flu, bro”

    What is your argument for that?

    • Agree: GoRedWings!
    • Replies: @epebble
    @Anonymous

    I lived in San Diego area for 15 years. This has never happened before. This is happening in many places, especially in the interior of the country and rural areas with smaller facilities. This can increase death rates for patients without Covid too.

    Ambulances turned away as hospital emergency rooms overwhelmed


    County hospital association reaches out to state for staffing help

    By PAUL SISSON DEC. 15, 2020 11:14 AM

    Severe impacts on local emergency departments have forced paramedics to wait for hours before they can deliver their patients, prompting unprecedented changes to San Diego County ambulance bypass procedures Tuesday.

    The change came as intensive care capacity across the state continued to dwindle, prompting local hospitals to reach out to Sacramento for staffing help even as the first batches of vaccine began to arrive
     
    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-12-15/governor-says-covid-19-deaths-have-activated-a-grim-supply-chain

    Replies: @Polynikes

  13. @Guy De Champlagne
    We should want life to go back to the way it was before, and the faster the better.

    We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. The countries that were hardest hit by SARS are the countries that were the best prepared for COVID because they did just that. It would be a huge mistake and a great tragedy to just go back to normal, learn absolutely nothing, and comfort ourselves with a bunch of just-so stories about how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography.

    Replies: @Jake, @ken, @Pop Warner, @Prester John, @Polynikes, @Rob

    Have you not figured out that they have been lumping flu deaths with Covid deaths? And they have been attributing to death by Covid people who have been dying from cancer for years and caught Covid at the very end?

    Everything about this pandemic has been greatly overblown, with more than a few outright lies tossed in. Why? Who?

    Follow the money and the political power.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Jake

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @TomSchmidt, @DCThrowback, @Mr. Anon, @res, @ferd

    , @Guy De Champlagne
    @Jake

    So you're admitting that no matter the characteristics of any future pandemic your response will be the same as it was to the coronavirus? There is no need to plan out any future government response because no government action will ever be justified?

    If you're not just motivated by a pathological aversion to collective action and would actually support it in response to certain diseases, why not lay the groundwork for that action now so we don't get caught with our pants down again?

    , @Keypusher
    @Jake

    What unz needs is not a troll tag but a
    moron tag.

  14. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter. F Fauci.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Hannah Katz


    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter.
     
    Ignoring that he's a pathological liar, and very bad with time based estimates, see his comments on Operation Warp Speed (OWS), this is all about obtaining herd immunity for the 5% who can't get protected by vaccines. If you care about the populations at risk, and view masking with surgical grade plus or minus as at best neutral, which is an open question few are trying to honestly answer (see the Danish study which asked the wrong question), then, yes, we should be under restrictions like masking until herd immunity is reached, naturally or vaccine. Or not, I have no belief enough people will take COVID-19 vaccines to reach it, and we simply can't know at this time if natural immunity will "sterilize," to use the term as vaccine people do, enough people to fill in the gaps. (Sterilize as in, "you will never, ever detect viable SARS-CoV-2 in this person in the future.")

    So we could see out betters saying, hey, get the vaccine to protect the 5% of seniors most at risk who also fail to get a proper response from the vaccines. And if not, "lockdowns forever," and that could well be a winning political strategy for the Democrats. If seniors, probably correctly, view the Right and Republicans as selfish sociopaths who don't give a damn if they live or die, why shouldn't they switch their allegiance to Democrats who at least pretend to care, and who have the MSM covering up things like Cuomo's killing 10-20,000 nursing home residents, and the same policies killing even more per capita in New Jersey, see also Pennsylvania. Without that part of the Republican base, the Democrats won't even have to cheat to win elections.

    Replies: @Catdog, @Steve Sailer

    , @Barnard
    @Hannah Katz

    Even after the total failure of the Thanksgiving Freakout, as Alex Berenson is calling it, the lockdown zealots haven't adjusted tactics at all. They are now claiming that the natural decline after this spike is proof that masks work. The idea that everyone getting the vaccine will stop the Great Reset is naive at best. The doctor on MSNBC who said even though he has been vaccinated he won't travel until "Dr. Fauci says it is safe" is what they are trying to promote. There will always be another crisis.

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Hannah Katz

    "I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter. F Fauci."

    Yes, until flu season begins again and cases rise again - OH NO IT'S OUR FIFTH WAVE so we must diaper and lickdown and assburger-distance again!!! - ad infinitum.

    This hoax ends when men find their brains and their balls and put a stop to the womanly hysteria. Judging by all the fagboys in facediapers™ around my hood, I have little hope.

    , @Travis
    @Hannah Katz

    Two weeks to flatten the curve

  15. @HammerJack
    What's changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.

    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.

    Replies: @Nodwink, @That Would Be Telling, @Guy De Champlagne, @That Would Be Telling, @Hypnotoad666, @Hapalong Cassidy

    Excellent article in every way, although of course you could have scaremongered more about morbidity, and perhaps pointed out people generally have a choice of an uncontrolled wild type infection involving zillions of cells, or a controlled real or quasi-infection (virus vector or mRNA), or protein plus adjuvants!!!, although the Operation Warp Speed big bet on Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline is requiring a restart, their dosing for the elderly “produced ‘insufficient immune response,’” see the newer formulations of the same style flu vaccines for this population, four times the protein antigens as the normal, my father certainly noticed the difference.

    As previously discussed on iSteve, your point in the article about giving our betters less time and fodder to engineer a Great Reset is worthy of serious consideration. In the US, if enough people don’t get either natural or vaccine immunity (the former the term for getting the wild type infection), in Blue states it’ll be “lockdowns forever,” or until they run out of money, people willing to tolerate their shenanigans, etc. Depopulating NYC sounds great in theory, but we know from the Californication of various western states, plus see New Hampshire, that these people will bring the attitudes that turned their former hellholes to wherever they decamp to. And who knows what a Biden or Harris in the White House might try to impose on the entire country, the former having previously warned us about a “dark winter.” And he’s probably not all wrong….

    For those worrying about the safety of mRNA vaccines, it’s clear almost all those on iSteve simply aren’t going to be eligible for the first tranche of mRNA vaccines, so they’ll have a lot more time to learn from the data of the Phase III trial participants, and for those one in million problems that you’re unlikely to find when you only give vaccines to a few tens of thousands, from the Phase IV experiences of tens of millions getting the vaccines starting in the last couple of days.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @That Would Be Telling

    "see the newer formulations of the same style flu vaccines for this population, four times the protein antigens as the normal, my father certainly noticed the difference"

    I know someone who was so knocked about by the over-65 UK flu jab he immediately booked a Covid test.

    , @Rex Little
    @That Would Be Telling


    we know from the Californication of various western states, plus see New Hampshire, that these people will bring the attitudes that turned their former hellholes to wherever they decamp to.
     
    As witness, Arizona (my current home state after 40 years in California) going for Biden.

    Dammit, I moved here to get away from those people. Where do I go now?
    , @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    @That Would Be Telling

    “ it’s clear almost all those on iSteve simply aren’t going to be eligible for the first tranche of mRNA vaccines”

    You underestimate iSteve’s military readership

    Replies: @res

  16. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people’s suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    • Replies: @MikeCLT
    @Jake

    Steve survived stage 4 cancer because of cancer treatments developed by the pharmaceutical companies. His trust in their competence comes from experience.

    Replies: @AndrewR

    , @Johnny Smoggins
    @Jake

    Steve also seems unwilling to dig too deeply into the election that was just stolen right in front of everyone.

    I think boomers saw enough of America at its greatest that they can't bring themselves to admit that America has become basically as corrupt as Ukraine.

    Replies: @Ian M., @Ray Huffman

    , @AndrewR
    @Jake

    Let's not forget that in February and early March, the Democrats were telling everyone to go French kiss random Chinese people to fight xenophobia.

    Now they're saying we have to extend these absurd restrictions forever unless everyone gets vaccinated (possibly annually). And even that won't be enough, because they'll use flu outbreaks to justify tyrannical measures. Tens of thousands of Americans have died of the flu annually for generations. No one seemed to care that much but Democrats will rabidly insist on eliminating flu deaths just like they treat every mass shooting (outside of the ghetto) as apocalyptic. At some point we will have to do things to stand up to the Democrats that would make Steve reach for the smelling salts.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Known Fact
    @Jake

    "Naive" might be too strong because Steve really gives all these statistics a serious crunching in search of some meaning, rather than just accepting the pre-digested conventional wisdom. But while I enjoy a steaming pile of stats as much as anyone, I'm especially skeptical of the mountain of numbers that COVID has generated. Call me vile but there are so many ambiguities and perverse incentives. So what can Steve hope to find when the source material cannot entirely be trusted. Reading berween the lines can help, but still ...

    , @Anonymous
    @Jake


    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people’s suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.
     
    Great BS. You claim to represent the reader against the bad people, understand everybody's (including the readers) concealed emotions and motives, reinforce your message with sarcasm and hatred of the intelligent and informed (which you assume the reader shares). Classic template, but maybe a bit too familiar to be effective.
    , @Magic Dirt Resident
    @Jake

    Maybe once we all get our vaccines Steve will finally cover the statistical anomalies from the election.

    , @Richard B
    @Jake


    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people’s suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.
     
    Though I think Steve's the best living journalist in the world today, or certainly one of them, I have to say that I was disappointed about his reaction to Covid.

    Maybe there's more than one reason for his response, maybe not. Maybe he simply believes it's a real and is responding accordingly.

    But one thing I thought might be possible is that, in spite of his better judgment, he still yearns for mainstream respectability. Can't say that I blame him, He should be mainstream. And in a reasonably sane world he would be.

    It's the mainstream who should be thrown in the As Irrelevant As A Giant Pile Of Rotary Phones bin.

  17. “We should want life to go back to the way it was before, and the faster the better.”

    Well, there’s your problem. This has never been a problem of public health policy or drug development policy. The pandemic is the expression of a more fundamental conflict between people who want to go back to normal and be left alone and people who want to constantly change what normal is by any means necessary. What they did with the pandemic is what they want to do with climate change, the criminal justice system, even biology and sex. They want absolute power and if a lot of people die on their way to getting it, so much the better.

  18. Funny how these mortality statistics are 100% contradicted by Market Ticker’s analysis of Social Security data, which shows only a small blip increase in March-April when Cuomo and Witmer were forcing Covid patients into nursing homes, killing about 40,000….Otherwise, nothing…And since when did a few months of trials demonstrate the safety of a new vaccine that injects the novel mRNA into your system?
    Also, they are talking about booster shots every 6 months, and the 2d shot causing severe side effects…let’s hear more about that…

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @pyrrhus


    Also, they are talking about booster shots every 6 months
     
    Who is "they"? CNN, etc. has to fill 24 hours of air time every day so they have all sorts of talking heads on spewing wild speculation. As of now, there is no plan for booster shots - they don't even have enough to give everyone the initial vaccine. Nor is it possible to know how long the protection of the vaccine lasts since there hasn't been enough time to test this.

    "Severe" side effects is a term of art. A minority of the vaccine recipients have headache, fever, achiness, soreness around the injection site, etc. for a day or two after their 2nd shot. Nothing worse than that. This is a sign that the vaccine has triggered an immune reaction and is working. It's better to feel lousy for a day with almost no further risk and gaining immunity from Covid vs. getting very sick and maybe dying from Covid. If there was nothing to be gained from being vaccinated, then sure why subject yourself to a possible lousy day (maybe a day of lost work) for nothing, but in this case the game is worth the candle in my opinion. YMMV.

    Replies: @pyrrhus

    , @danand
    @pyrrhus

    “...they are talking about booster shots every 6 months”

    Pyrrhus, I confirm what your hearing. Our local news affiliates for ABC, NBC, CBS have been touting that in recent days. The consensus seems to be that “while they don’t know” it’s expected boosters while be required somewhere between every 4 to 12 months. I would assume this would be the case until the virus is “extinguished”. I guess seems about right given that’s about the protection afforded by a regular flu vaccination?

    https://flic.kr/p/2iU8g3r

    While hearing of a few reported Covid-19 sufferers becoming reinfected, it does not appear, given the lack of reports, to occur too often. Let’s hope that holds, but those same news reports are saying that even those who have had Covid-19 will still need vaccination.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

  19. @Jake
    @Guy De Champlagne

    Have you not figured out that they have been lumping flu deaths with Covid deaths? And they have been attributing to death by Covid people who have been dying from cancer for years and caught Covid at the very end?

    Everything about this pandemic has been greatly overblown, with more than a few outright lies tossed in. Why? Who?

    Follow the money and the political power.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Guy De Champlagne, @Keypusher

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    • Agree: ic1000
    • LOL: Polynikes
    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Steve Sailer


    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.
     
    I'm not so sure about that. The CDC's primary flu surveillance depends on a particular set of doctor's offices and clinics doing point of contact tests and reporting the results. Otherwise, flu is not a "reportable" disease unless it kills an infant. Whereas by law all positive COVID-19 tests must be reported to the authorities.

    So I've been assuming a lot of people with lower grades of flu infection have been avoiding doctor's offices, which at most would give you a Tamiflu prescription very limited utility, better to let nature take its course than potentially get exposed to a much more lethal pathogen. Albeit with very different demographics, but they're all, flu and COVID-19, still quite capable of killing the young and middle aged stone cold dead.

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @Kyle

    , @TomSchmidt
    @Steve Sailer

    Is that serious, or tongue-in-cheek?

    Now that I think about it, I'd like a global 3-week lockdown, mandatory, to eliminate the common cold, forever. I would guess that the restrictions on people, socially, economically, and psychologically damaging as they are, have cut down transmission of a lot of illnesses. Why not end the rhinovirus' reign of terror?

    , @DCThrowback
    @Steve Sailer

    universal mask wearing has decimated normal seasonal flu cases.

    universal cloth mask mandates is just about useless v. an aerosol spread virus like COVID.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer


    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.
     
    Sure, the masks and lockdowns have stopped the spread of the respiratory disease known as seasonal influenza (caused by pathogens that in a normal year infect around 10% of the population), but have somehow had no effect at all on the respiratory disease known as COVID-19. Although we should certainly continue taking those measures, and even more stringent measures, because science.

    You are foolishly naive Steve if you think the pandemic can be ended by any rational concrete means. It serves the interests of a too many powerful interests - the people who engineered it (not the virus, but the response). It didn't bother you that the propaganda (We're all in this together, six feet apart!, Stay Home, Stay Safe!, Frontline Heros!) started belching forth from the World's viewscreens as if on cue? A whole carefully crafted and coordinated PR campaign ready to go from Day One, as soon as somebody or somebodies flipped that switch?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Rockford Tyson

    , @res
    @Steve Sailer

    I tend to think you are right, but am curious about That Would Be Telling's response.

    For those who don't see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 - 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 - 3. Countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID-19 (lockdowns, masks, etc.) are likely to reduce the effective R of the flu below 1 at which point it stops spreading freely (there might still be occasional cases).

    It is also worth looking at the CDC flu tracker data from March-April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @utu, @Polynikes, @Hypnotoad666, @danand

    , @ferd
    @Steve Sailer

    Pandemic analysis has exposed an interesting fault line between conservatives who are intelligent and innumerate, and those who can read data. This has been a huge theme in my life since March.

    For God's sake, look at the graphs in Steve's piece.

    Replies: @utu

  20. https://off-guardian.org/2020/12/15/the-covid-19-data-is-a-travesty/

    Oh, the info you can find in 30 seconds of searching.

    And Covid will be over, when, and only when, you minds reject the lies…….which is to say, never.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  21. @Jake
    It is always a very good thing to trust whatever Bill Gates hawks. The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers, @U. Ranus, @Paul Jolliffe, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden

    Plus, despite what his detractors claim, he has vast expertise with viruses. Even this retCONned flu.

  22. Anon[358] • Disclaimer says:

    Like many, I had imagined that “morbidity” meant something like “cause of death,” but it just means “ailment.”

    This surprises me. Morbidity is a pretty good super-condensed version of the Wordsum IQ test. The reason why is that smart people tent to read a lot, including the news, and the CDC publishes the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, as it happens, weekly. This tends to produce news that from time to time makes it into the text of various articles, which are sourced from and credited to the MMWR.

    The first time you come across a reference to this publication, a smart person will ask himself, Why the redundant name? Then, They probably know what they’re doing, so it must not be redundant … what does morbidity mean, anyway? Then a trip to the dictionary, or Google, and you have a new word in your pocket.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @Anon

    I know a couple of morbid people.
    Neither of them is dead.When they are, they'll be proved to have been wrong: things could get worse.

    Replies: @Anon

  23. @Guy De Champlagne
    Shouldn't there be a cutoff where if someone is young and healthy enough they should just get infected with the virus rather than get some expensive and scarce rush job experimental vaccine with an awfully cancery seeming delivery mechanism?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Shouldn’t there be a cutoff where if someone is young and healthy enough they should just get infected with the virus rather than get some expensive and scarce rush job experimental vaccine

    mRNA vaccines are not the sort of rush jobs you’re making them out to be, except in two ways: based on previous research, including against SARS type coronaviruses, animal testing was started in parallel with human Phase I trials, a risk for a very few humans that paid off fantastically.

    And the FDA using their long existing Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) mechanism to allow them to be used now, before enough data is gathered for licensure for general populations, which will almost certainly come, or not, by the time those “young and healthy enough” are even able to get these vaccines.

    with an awfully cancery seeming delivery mechanism?

    The mRNA vaccines are the single most precise and exact simulation of a real COVID-19 infection that’s the mechanism of what I call “active” vaccines, the previous ones using “live” whole viruses that have either had their fangs removed or their ability to reproduce gimped (and one of the latter from Janssen is coming along nicely we hear, is in Phase III trials; ignore the AZ/Oxford clown show for a long time, and Sputnik V has great theory, but became a political football).

    Just like the wild type virus, they deposit their lipids and payload of stabilized spike protein coding mRNA and nothing else into cells, but only a small number of cells, and the mRNA that hijacks these cells won’t last for very long. Compare to the wild type infection where zillions of cells get infected, sometimes all over the body, hijacked for a long time to pump out full viruses, and in all cases these cells get killed dead by a proper immune system response, not counting those that self-destruct after being too hard used by the virus. You’re somehow thinking a “natural,” uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    Of course, a lot of the above is theory, but it’s being experimentally proven in Phase I-III trials, and now in Phase IV as they’re be given to highest priority populations.

    • Thanks: MEH 0910, ic1000
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @That Would Be Telling

    You’re somehow thinking a “natural,” uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    What is the rate of serious harm in the young from COVID? By contrast, you might want to consider this:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle

    I think you might make the case that for older, sicker, fatter people the risks of MRNA vaccines are outweighed by the benefits. For people under 20?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @AnotherDad

    , @Guy De Champlagne
    @That Would Be Telling

    You’re somehow thinking a “natural,” uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    It's axiomatic that the consequences, especially long term, are better understood.

    You gave a good defense of mRNA vaccines and I'm sure there are people even more eloquent and convincing than you. But there were also eloquent and convincing defenses of all sorts of iatrogenesis throughout medical history. How are all those totally safe totally non addictive painkillers working out?

    the mRNA that hijacks these cells won’t last for very long

    I'm curious about this. Are you saying that there are (supposedly) no long term effects on the cells that are modified to produce the spikes or just that the causative mechanism that modifies them (the mRNA) ends up destroyed? Or are the cells that are modified to produce the spike all destroyed by the immune system?

  24. @Steve Sailer
    @Jake

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @TomSchmidt, @DCThrowback, @Mr. Anon, @res, @ferd

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    I’m not so sure about that. The CDC’s primary flu surveillance depends on a particular set of doctor’s offices and clinics doing point of contact tests and reporting the results. Otherwise, flu is not a “reportable” disease unless it kills an infant. Whereas by law all positive COVID-19 tests must be reported to the authorities.

    So I’ve been assuming a lot of people with lower grades of flu infection have been avoiding doctor’s offices, which at most would give you a Tamiflu prescription very limited utility, better to let nature take its course than potentially get exposed to a much more lethal pathogen. Albeit with very different demographics, but they’re all, flu and COVID-19, still quite capable of killing the young and middle aged stone cold dead.

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    @That Would Be Telling

    Hopelessness kills the young and middle-aged in greater numbers and social isolation via lockdowns is killing them faster.

    , @Kyle
    @That Would Be Telling

    “Whereas by law all positive COVID-19 tests must be reported to the authorities.“

    I’d wager a good chunk of people who contracted covid denied it to themselves, didn’t go to the doctor, didn’t tell anyone, and “soldiered on” as the English like to say. It’s an extremely american ethos. How should we go about rounding up those people and punishing them?

    Replies: @Cloudbuster

  25. Let’s be Over and Done in ’21

    15 days to flatten the curve.

    • Agree: Kyle
  26. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    Covid-19 is the best thing that has happened to our elites. Why would they want to end it, and what makes you think that the cure won’t be worse than the vaccine? When did Steve Sailer become so naive?

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @BB753

    When did Steve Sailer become so naive?

    What, you think the Deep State Davoisie would allow Steve Sailor to publish? Don't you realize Steve Sailor has been replaced by "Steve Sailor"? When did BB753 become so naive?

    Replies: @BB753

  27. The Litmus Test issues keep coming, and those who fail one, tend to go on to fail the next.

    So, those who did not see-through the fraud that is the pandemic (and did not later repent their error) – also fail to notice the global totalitarian coup of early 2020 (I’d have thought this was impossible to miss, but nothing is too big to be ignored in 2020), and the same folk have also failed to perceive the obvious electoral fraud.

    I think this is because once one has decided to trust the good motivations of the Global Establishment, and bought-into their… way of explaining their actions; then one is caught in a fly bottle from which personal experience and common sense are also excluded.

    From then onwards, one absorbs the ideology along with the facts from the monobloc bureaucracy of mass media/ officialdom/ ‘science’/ schools/ academia/ law etc, so that no facts can ever refute the ideology.

    Indeed, there are (in truth) no facts without conceptual understanding – so until a true conceptual understanding is in-place (which, I take it, is Christianity – properly understood by personal intent, not absorbed passively from the 2020 ‘churches’), then the true facts cannot become apparent.

    • Agree: Polite Derelict
    • Thanks: theMann, YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Bruce Charlton

    Mormonism is not Christianity but heresy. Moreover, people who sincerely believe in it have to be a little insane because it is so clearly refuted by history, archaeology, and Christian theology. Plus, Romney.

    , @Jtgw
    @Bruce Charlton

    What caused the excess deaths then? Or do you think those fake stats?

  28. @Hannah Katz
    @Dr. X

    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter. F Fauci.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Barnard, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Travis

    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter.

    Ignoring that he’s a pathological liar, and very bad with time based estimates, see his comments on Operation Warp Speed (OWS), this is all about obtaining herd immunity for the 5% who can’t get protected by vaccines. If you care about the populations at risk, and view masking with surgical grade plus or minus as at best neutral, which is an open question few are trying to honestly answer (see the Danish study which asked the wrong question), then, yes, we should be under restrictions like masking until herd immunity is reached, naturally or vaccine. Or not, I have no belief enough people will take COVID-19 vaccines to reach it, and we simply can’t know at this time if natural immunity will “sterilize,” to use the term as vaccine people do, enough people to fill in the gaps. (Sterilize as in, “you will never, ever detect viable SARS-CoV-2 in this person in the future.”)

    So we could see out betters saying, hey, get the vaccine to protect the 5% of seniors most at risk who also fail to get a proper response from the vaccines. And if not, “lockdowns forever,” and that could well be a winning political strategy for the Democrats. If seniors, probably correctly, view the Right and Republicans as selfish sociopaths who don’t give a damn if they live or die, why shouldn’t they switch their allegiance to Democrats who at least pretend to care, and who have the MSM covering up things like Cuomo’s killing 10-20,000 nursing home residents, and the same policies killing even more per capita in New Jersey, see also Pennsylvania. Without that part of the Republican base, the Democrats won’t even have to cheat to win elections.

    • Replies: @Catdog
    @That Would Be Telling


    If seniors, probably correctly, view the Right and Republicans as selfish sociopaths who don’t give a damn if they live or die
     
    The selfish sociopaths are the oldsters ruining the lives of children and young adults so that they can claw out a few more senescent years watching Wheel of Fortune. The damage this hysteria has caused will outlive them by decades.
    , @Steve Sailer
    @That Would Be Telling

    "Or not, I have no belief enough people will take COVID-19 vaccines to reach it, and we simply can’t know at this time if natural immunity will “sterilize,” to use the term as vaccine people do, enough people to fill in the gaps. (Sterilize as in, “you will never, ever detect viable SARS-CoV-2 in this person in the future.”)"

    Vaccine experts should stop using the term of art "sterilizing" because most people don't know what it means and instead assume they are talking about the vaccine rendering people infertile or impotent.

  29. @Redneck farmer
    As pointed out in Strategy Page, political and military leaders are mostly over 60, so this resulted in the hystericalness of the reaction.
    Also, the wet markets will probably cause another pandemic in the 2030s.

    Replies: @Anon, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR

    How do you know that Covid-19 originated in a wet market?

  30. @Jake
    @Dr. X

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people's suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    Replies: @MikeCLT, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR, @Known Fact, @Anonymous, @Magic Dirt Resident, @Richard B

    Steve survived stage 4 cancer because of cancer treatments developed by the pharmaceutical companies. His trust in their competence comes from experience.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @MikeCLT

    How many years ago was that? It's a different world.

  31. As I’ve mentioned before, when I had cancer in 1997, it was common for nonsmoking acquaintances to ask my wife, “That’s so sad—by the way, so…Steve…smokes, right?” When told that I didn’t, that I had apparently just come down with cancer due to random bad luck, they’d go away looking thoughtful and gloomy. They had wanted to believe that I must have had it coming for something that I did that they wouldn’t do, which meant that they didn’t deserve to die, and, to a rough approximation, that therefore they would never die.

    I’ve thought about this insight since you first wrote it. It’s an essential human psychology predicate when it comes to understanding both individual and group risk.

    The current justified contretemps over ‘Rules for thee, but no for me,’ is really about our liberty to assume risk and foist it on others. Stalking nearby is socialized costs.

    AIDS turned out to be the paradigmatic example of a novel infectious disease with high individual risk for those engaging in high risk behaviors and exceedingly low risk for those we’re not supposed to call innocent in the AIDS/HIV context.

    Covid, airborne and highly infectious, is essentially opposite on the individual and group risk spectrums.

    In other words, whereas you really had to be unlucky to get HIV/AIDS without engaging in known high risk behaviors, the die is essentially cast in terms of any individual’s risk of death or life-shortening/degrading due to Covid.

    Now put this in the context of an aging Baby Boomer generation that’s a category killer when it comes to craven selfishness. How else to explain the number that they were and remain willing to do on children and young adults. Whereas previous generations in other contexts starved so their children and grandchildren had what to eat, this current crop cares only about themselves and maybe, just maybe, their own progeny.

    In the event, Trump and Sleepy Joe are emblematic. Trump modeled the old-school exemplary behavior. Bearing risk by virtue of his position and in the common interest. Biden hides in his basement, using every resource to protect himself.

    I would despair over Americans choosing the No Profile In Courage latter but that simply isn’t the case. Trump won in a landslide. That means that if Biden becomes president the process of discrediting will be complete. The American president will be the equivalent of Russia’s Yeltsin circa 1996.

    • Agree: Redman
  32. @Steve Sailer
    @Jake

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @TomSchmidt, @DCThrowback, @Mr. Anon, @res, @ferd

    Is that serious, or tongue-in-cheek?

    Now that I think about it, I’d like a global 3-week lockdown, mandatory, to eliminate the common cold, forever. I would guess that the restrictions on people, socially, economically, and psychologically damaging as they are, have cut down transmission of a lot of illnesses. Why not end the rhinovirus’ reign of terror?

  33. Anon[314] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve, I mostly agree with your criticism of the anti-vaxxers. Yes, there are some unknowns regarding a new vaccine, but it’s funny that people who are dismissive of the virus itself get so worked up about potential vaccine side effects. There’s some inconsistency there. I don’t want to live in a country where the government forces people to get this vaccine, but a widespread lack of common sense about this could make that outcome more likely.

    That said…..it’s still not clear what your view is about the restrictions that have been and are in place. You observe that the virus is spread by, for example, church services and birthday parties. So, do you support the huge restrictions that have been placed on these things? Commenters have pointed out that dozens of millions of young people, who are at virtually no risk, have been living in virtual house arrest for much of the past year. Do you support that?

    Yes, many people are taking precautions voluntarily, so it was inevitable that movie theaters were in for a bad year regardless of the decisions of government. But there was no fundamental law of physics requiring that the government respond to the virus in this way. Governments in the past generally didn’t, even when faced with worse infectious diseases than we’re faced with.

    I give you credit for posting comments from the rude commenters who’ve been insulting you. But I think people are frustrated that, like so many in public life this year, you seem to focus solely on the reduction of death. For example, your concession to the trade-off argument is that some people are missing cancer screenings- i.e. increasing the likelihood of a different cause of death.

    It’s hard to overstate how massive and unprecedented have been the changes put in place this year. There is a real sense in which we no longer live in a free country. There are huge non-health-related costs being imposed on huge numbers of people. I was banned from going to church for several months this year, and now I have to sign up on a list to go. Previous generations of Americans would have considered that insane. Didn’t we use to think that there are things worse than dying? Apparently not anymore.

    • Replies: @stealth
    @Anon

    Nobody believes in the supernatural anymore, so people really really don’t want to die.

    Replies: @Anon

    , @Redman
    @Anon

    It’s not hard to understand. If you think the Corona Virus was overhyped and used by governments to institute totalitarian measures, why would you think the supported government cure is any more worthy of acceptance.

    I’m not an anti-Vaxxer (whatever that overly reductive term is supposed to mean). But I still think this vaccine seems odd. Covid isn’t the plague. That’s why we’re still arguing about it. It’s not polio. It doesn’t kill healthy people.

    This represents a massive shift in social paradigms. We are now officially obsessed with health and trying to live forever. Even when nature says we’ve lived long enough. It’s a form of decadence. Other poorer societies who envy our wealth are taking notes. You can depend on it.

  34. @That Would Be Telling
    @Guy De Champlagne


    Shouldn’t there be a cutoff where if someone is young and healthy enough they should just get infected with the virus rather than get some expensive and scarce rush job experimental vaccine
     
    mRNA vaccines are not the sort of rush jobs you're making them out to be, except in two ways: based on previous research, including against SARS type coronaviruses, animal testing was started in parallel with human Phase I trials, a risk for a very few humans that paid off fantastically.

    And the FDA using their long existing Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) mechanism to allow them to be used now, before enough data is gathered for licensure for general populations, which will almost certainly come, or not, by the time those "young and healthy enough" are even able to get these vaccines.

    with an awfully cancery seeming delivery mechanism?
     
    The mRNA vaccines are the single most precise and exact simulation of a real COVID-19 infection that's the mechanism of what I call "active" vaccines, the previous ones using "live" whole viruses that have either had their fangs removed or their ability to reproduce gimped (and one of the latter from Janssen is coming along nicely we hear, is in Phase III trials; ignore the AZ/Oxford clown show for a long time, and Sputnik V has great theory, but became a political football).

    Just like the wild type virus, they deposit their lipids and payload of stabilized spike protein coding mRNA and nothing else into cells, but only a small number of cells, and the mRNA that hijacks these cells won't last for very long. Compare to the wild type infection where zillions of cells get infected, sometimes all over the body, hijacked for a long time to pump out full viruses, and in all cases these cells get killed dead by a proper immune system response, not counting those that self-destruct after being too hard used by the virus. You're somehow thinking a "natural," uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    Of course, a lot of the above is theory, but it's being experimentally proven in Phase I-III trials, and now in Phase IV as they're be given to highest priority populations.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Guy De Champlagne

    You’re somehow thinking a “natural,” uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    What is the rate of serious harm in the young from COVID? By contrast, you might want to consider this:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle

    I think you might make the case that for older, sicker, fatter people the risks of MRNA vaccines are outweighed by the benefits. For people under 20?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @TomSchmidt


    What is the rate of serious harm in the young from COVID?
     
    That's one of the points, we don't know, but people are looking. What's the age distribution of the 20% of confirmed male COVID-19 cases that report testes pain? The PRC, facing a demographic catastrophe of their own making, has reported some results recently, although I wonder for how much longer the CCP will allow such research to go public. Also, some, not very many, but some "young people" under 20 without comorbidities die, and while I've stopped following the research, as far as I know, we generally don't understand the how of those who roll snake eyes, although we have clues like Vitamin D levels.

    You see, it's not a case of leaping to a new innovation without sufficient care, but a choice between one of two definitely not entirely safe things. I don't see how the precautionary principle applies at all, when there's something that's very possibly it's own "innovation" from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) that's the alternative. Either options, natural infection or vaccine, are experiments being done on vast scales, one all but completely uncontrolled, the other under an microscope.

    But, sure, age stratify those who get vaccines starting from the oldest to the youngest as we gather more data about the effects of these vaccines in large populations. But that's many months in the future, at the moment I'm not even sure we're going to able to vaccinate 100 million Americans who want it by the end of the first quarter of next year (Pfizer has supply chain problems, Moderna's ability to manufacture at scale is entirely untested).
    , @AnotherDad
    @TomSchmidt

    Tom, you've got your choice:

    a) The Xi-special from the Wuhan Institute of Virology
    --full on reproducing bug, that makes your cells reproduce itself--the full virus--and if not stopped can infect/kill ever freaking cell in your body

    b) The mRNA vaccines from German and American labs.
    -- not a full bug, doesn't reproduce, but just delivery to your cells of mRNA that produces spike protein (to rile up immune system), limited to amount in vaccine shot

    You can pick whichever.

    I'm an Irish-Anglo-Germanic American white guy. I'm going with the white man's vaccine over the Chinaman's f'ing germ.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @TomSchmidt

  35. You fight Bolony Corony.

    I’m fighting air.

    5ds

  36. If I was over 40 I would be more okay with taking the vaccine. But my wife and I are still hoping to have more children and the rumour in conspiracy circles is that one of the side effects of the vaccine is infertility. Conspiracy circles are making a big deal about TPTB wanting population control and Bill Gates himself being linked to the population control/eugenics movement, which struck me as a bit much, but you never know. I might have missed previous comments on this topic. What are the iSteve commenters thoughts on this? Are fears overblown or is taking the vaccine not worth the risk?

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    @BRK

    Same. I would be all for taking it...but I’m only 30. The chances of me dying of COVID are way slimmer than having a random heart attack or stroke. I think Great Britain is recommending women planning to get pregnant within 3 months not take the vaccine initially. That’s probably where the rumors of infertility are coming from.

    Hopefully I’m last in line so I can observe what the actual effects are, but I think my job will require it by Spring or Summer.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @BRK

    Saw some reports that the virus infects testes and may affect sperm production, so there you go... infertile from the virus or infertile from the cure... take your pick.

  37. Paranoid style of thinking of anti-waxxers & conspiracy “theorists” is that they usually overrate their importance & others’ motives.

    As gifted a man as Richard Stillman, with his obsession over hiding from being tracked etc. simply overrates his (or anyone’s) importance. Why would anyone care where he is or was? Blackmail him- why?

    True, some info can be gained to promote easily identifiable subjects- hence spying on technology, weapons, some strategic sources etc. But grandiose fantasies on big hidden evil forces/people is pure rubbish: why would anyone want “New World Order” (whatever this may mean)? Why would, even if they could- which is absolutely impossible- anyone wish to create a society of total control where basically nothing of importance would happen? Why would a hyper-fantasist government want to have a possibility to read your minds, contents of which are mostly- worthless shit? Why would sinister big pharma want to reduce populations, and given the circumstances, the most creative populations, while retaining & enhancing global presence of dumb breeders (Africa, Islam, India, ..)? Why would some powerful hidden elites want to create a world which is even more shitholler than today?

    To paraphrase “Communist Manifesto”: Rationalists of the world unite. You have nothing to lose -except your obesity & your shitty inflated ego.

  38. @Redneck farmer
    As pointed out in Strategy Page, political and military leaders are mostly over 60, so this resulted in the hystericalness of the reaction.
    Also, the wet markets will probably cause another pandemic in the 2030s.

    Replies: @Anon, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR

    Also the fact that western nations are now largely run by women, so extreme caution and hypochondria are to be expected.

    • Agree: Redman
    • Replies: @Mr Mox
    @Johnny Smoggins

    Shhh... Some universal truths are not supposed to be noticed:

    It sounds sexist, and it’s sure to raise the ire of some feminists, but the literature does not lie. Throughout history, groups of people in cohesive social units have suddenly fallen ill or exhibited strange behaviors, from headaches and fainting spells to twitching, shaking and trance states. But whether it’s an outbreak of spirit possession at a shoe factory in Malaysia, a collapsing marching band at a school gala in England or a twitching epidemic in a Louisiana high school, the pattern is invariably the same. Most, and often all of those affected, are females. In fact, of the 2,000+ cases in my files which date back to 1566, this pattern holds true over ninety-nine percent of the time.

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/its-catching/201703/why-are-females-prone-mass-hysteria

    Replies: @Jack D

  39. @Jake
    @Dr. X

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people's suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    Replies: @MikeCLT, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR, @Known Fact, @Anonymous, @Magic Dirt Resident, @Richard B

    Steve also seems unwilling to dig too deeply into the election that was just stolen right in front of everyone.

    I think boomers saw enough of America at its greatest that they can’t bring themselves to admit that America has become basically as corrupt as Ukraine.

    • Agree: TTSSYF, RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Ian M.
    @Johnny Smoggins


    America has become basically as corrupt as Ukraine.
     
    Wow, that's great news that our level of corruption has decreased so significantly!

    Oh... that's not what you meant?
    , @Ray Huffman
    @Johnny Smoggins

    It's worse than the Ukraine. In the Ukraine, when apprehended by some mercenary pig for committing some bullshit crime, you can pay a small bribe on the spot to avoid a far worse ass raping by the judge and sundry others. Here, that option is not open to you. They will pass you around like a joint at a Willie Nelson concert until you are sucked dry and financially ruined. And that probably still won't be enough. They'll then throw your ass in jail simply because you have no more money to pay. Graft only benefits the rich here.

  40. @TomSchmidt
    @That Would Be Telling

    You’re somehow thinking a “natural,” uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    What is the rate of serious harm in the young from COVID? By contrast, you might want to consider this:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle

    I think you might make the case that for older, sicker, fatter people the risks of MRNA vaccines are outweighed by the benefits. For people under 20?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @AnotherDad

    What is the rate of serious harm in the young from COVID?

    That’s one of the points, we don’t know, but people are looking. What’s the age distribution of the 20% of confirmed male COVID-19 cases that report testes pain? The PRC, facing a demographic catastrophe of their own making, has reported some results recently, although I wonder for how much longer the CCP will allow such research to go public. Also, some, not very many, but some “young people” under 20 without comorbidities die, and while I’ve stopped following the research, as far as I know, we generally don’t understand the how of those who roll snake eyes, although we have clues like Vitamin D levels.

    You see, it’s not a case of leaping to a new innovation without sufficient care, but a choice between one of two definitely not entirely safe things. I don’t see how the precautionary principle applies at all, when there’s something that’s very possibly it’s own “innovation” from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) that’s the alternative. Either options, natural infection or vaccine, are experiments being done on vast scales, one all but completely uncontrolled, the other under an microscope.

    But, sure, age stratify those who get vaccines starting from the oldest to the youngest as we gather more data about the effects of these vaccines in large populations. But that’s many months in the future, at the moment I’m not even sure we’re going to able to vaccinate 100 million Americans who want it by the end of the first quarter of next year (Pfizer has supply chain problems, Moderna’s ability to manufacture at scale is entirely untested).

  41. Choose to live and this whole thing will be over

    Choose to believe what They say and they will move the goalpost

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  42. @Guy De Champlagne
    @HammerJack

    China has every reason to keep pumping out pandemics as long as they're able to respond to them quickly and competently while the US just shows off its signature buffoonery and basketcasery. Maybe by the next pandemic they'll blow us out of the water with their vaccine development like China was able to with every other part of their COVID response this time.

    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China. This virus and the responses from the two countries has been the best advertisement for 'Made in China' that they could have hoped for.

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @fnn, @WJ, @Keypusher, @Hhsiii

    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China

    It’s true, nothing says quality like “Made In China.”

  43. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    Earlier it was with 911 which is being milked to eternity. Enhanced screening and X-rays and the whole lot. The official narrative still that a bunch of Saudis did it. So as a revenge we want to Iraq and Afghanistan rather than Saudi Arabia. Oh, and never mind that WTC 7 was announced by BBC 20 minutes before it actually imploded and wasn’t hit by a plane etc. That was caused by something something shut up about it already.

    With COVID, we have seen all along that government officials at all levels have been seen not wearing their masks, not staying home, not social distancing. It’s all do as we say, not as we do and don’t pay attention to or scrutinize what we do. That’s why I haven’t taken it that serious, they don’t… Never mind the wide swath of economic destruction that has been forced on us.

    • Thanks: Buffalo Joe
  44. @That Would Be Telling
    @Guy De Champlagne


    Shouldn’t there be a cutoff where if someone is young and healthy enough they should just get infected with the virus rather than get some expensive and scarce rush job experimental vaccine
     
    mRNA vaccines are not the sort of rush jobs you're making them out to be, except in two ways: based on previous research, including against SARS type coronaviruses, animal testing was started in parallel with human Phase I trials, a risk for a very few humans that paid off fantastically.

    And the FDA using their long existing Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) mechanism to allow them to be used now, before enough data is gathered for licensure for general populations, which will almost certainly come, or not, by the time those "young and healthy enough" are even able to get these vaccines.

    with an awfully cancery seeming delivery mechanism?
     
    The mRNA vaccines are the single most precise and exact simulation of a real COVID-19 infection that's the mechanism of what I call "active" vaccines, the previous ones using "live" whole viruses that have either had their fangs removed or their ability to reproduce gimped (and one of the latter from Janssen is coming along nicely we hear, is in Phase III trials; ignore the AZ/Oxford clown show for a long time, and Sputnik V has great theory, but became a political football).

    Just like the wild type virus, they deposit their lipids and payload of stabilized spike protein coding mRNA and nothing else into cells, but only a small number of cells, and the mRNA that hijacks these cells won't last for very long. Compare to the wild type infection where zillions of cells get infected, sometimes all over the body, hijacked for a long time to pump out full viruses, and in all cases these cells get killed dead by a proper immune system response, not counting those that self-destruct after being too hard used by the virus. You're somehow thinking a "natural," uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    Of course, a lot of the above is theory, but it's being experimentally proven in Phase I-III trials, and now in Phase IV as they're be given to highest priority populations.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Guy De Champlagne

    You’re somehow thinking a “natural,” uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    It’s axiomatic that the consequences, especially long term, are better understood.

    You gave a good defense of mRNA vaccines and I’m sure there are people even more eloquent and convincing than you. But there were also eloquent and convincing defenses of all sorts of iatrogenesis throughout medical history. How are all those totally safe totally non addictive painkillers working out?

    the mRNA that hijacks these cells won’t last for very long

    I’m curious about this. Are you saying that there are (supposedly) no long term effects on the cells that are modified to produce the spikes or just that the causative mechanism that modifies them (the mRNA) ends up destroyed? Or are the cells that are modified to produce the spike all destroyed by the immune system?

  45. Moderna vaccine: Only eleven COVID cases were seen in the vaccine group versus 185 in the equal-size placebo group.

    Here we go with “cases” again. Is a case a positive PCR test with sniffles or actual sickness? How many of those 185 were hospitalized? Is there evidence that the vaccine reduces hospitalization in people at risk?

  46. “let’s… get this… over and done with… ”

  47. Steve, you’ve got a very comprehensive column there. I will write more about the numbers especially as related to the baseline curve, as seen in your previous post, that to me does not seem to keep up with a rapidly aging American population (went up by 1.2 years average age from ’18 to ’19 and 34% more over 65 Americans in one decade). Yes, I know, your point on the excess deaths of various age groups seems to preclude that being a confounding factor, but something seems wrong at first glance on the 4th graph (raw excess deaths by age group). Are those your own graphs, Steve? You wrote “reliable analyst”.

    I’ll get back to that, but let me say this about your column:

    a) This was well organized with good graphs, but I still want to get more into the data now. One of your links just went to a google page with a spreadsheet. Where is that data from?

    b) Your one paragraph about your cancer and people’s questions about your (lack of) smoking was better, IMO, than the way you’ve put it before. Instead of saying they tried to blame you for smoking, you worded it just about the way I would have put it. Except, I doubt people felt you “deserved” to die. They would have felt “ahaa, well that was your problem. You shouldn’t have smoked. I’ll be fine.” if you’d told them you were a smoker. You’re right that people want to feel that they are not vulnerable.

    c) That said, I guess I’m one with that invulnerable feeling. I’ve been exposed to this thing from traveling all around during all phases of this, being close to all kinds of people well before most people were wearing masks. I don’t seem to get any kinds of respiratory things, so maybe that’s why I feel confident this bug has probably already gone through me a few times. Then again, a well-over 60 y/o friend who has gotten pneumonia more than once before does not wear a mask, almost period, must be pretty invulnerable, as he’s been ignoring the whole thing action-wise – talks to customers at normal distance, nobody wears masks, et.

    d) We must be in a good area, because our hospitals are not near overcrowded as one keeps hearing. My family member in healthcare said the COVID floor is 10% of the hospital, and they would bring the patients elsewhere if they had to. One patient was on her floor for a few days, turns out with the COVID (missing one symptom, a fever, so some slack-ass doc missed it). Every one of the staff is fine so far, and they hadn’t been wearing anything special due to lack of knowledge about this.

    e) I’ll go with ID (infectious disease) doctor’s opinion, who told my doc friend that, just like the common cold, everyone is going to be in contact with these germs at some point. As for your herd immunity numbers, even that WSJ article you linked to admits that with most of us not getting tested and people with no symptoms, there are likely many more people who’ve gotten the virus in their systems than reported, so it’s a CDC “modeling estimate”. OK…

    f) Let those who are vulnerable, or feel vulnerable, take that vaccine. I got a flu shot per healthcare family member’s request, but even she is against taking the COVID vaccine. I’m not sure completely why.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Achmed E. Newman


    We must be in a good area, because our hospitals are not near overcrowded as one keeps hearing.
     
    There are definitely "good areas," but for how long? Consistent with what I'm hearing about national trends of bad conditions changing to the coasts, demand for COVID-19 beds in my very local part of flyover country has fallen by about 1/5th, and along with everyone else? we didn't see a post-Thanksgiving surge. So nature and/or human action, we've bent the curve enough we aren't being forced to give substandard care for now.

    But that's still quite a few people so sick with COVID-19 they require hospitalization, and the deaths keep coming. Not done a real analysis, still seems to be Silent Generation and old Boomers weighted, with the occasional younger person, and while I don't know the details, someone in my general area under the age of 10 died. Might be like a teenager who at last count was on a respirator, he had at least one terrible comorbidity.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Jack D

    , @gent
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The severity of COVID-19 seems directly proportional to how strong the control the DNC has over the area.

  48. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    Supposedly there are now new strains of Covid 19. It will never end, nor is it meant to. However if you want to live in a pod and eat bugs and weeds, yes the vaccine will be your means to your dystopian utopia.

  49. @Jake
    @Guy De Champlagne

    Have you not figured out that they have been lumping flu deaths with Covid deaths? And they have been attributing to death by Covid people who have been dying from cancer for years and caught Covid at the very end?

    Everything about this pandemic has been greatly overblown, with more than a few outright lies tossed in. Why? Who?

    Follow the money and the political power.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Guy De Champlagne, @Keypusher

    So you’re admitting that no matter the characteristics of any future pandemic your response will be the same as it was to the coronavirus? There is no need to plan out any future government response because no government action will ever be justified?

    If you’re not just motivated by a pathological aversion to collective action and would actually support it in response to certain diseases, why not lay the groundwork for that action now so we don’t get caught with our pants down again?

  50. This is a typically well-thought-out essay by Steve Sailer.

    In addition to the usual logic and statistics, Sailer makes use of his marketing knowledge to exhort rocky personalities to “man up and get their vaccine shots.” We are predisposed to listen, because we like to “man up” and be manly, and he knows that.

    The alternative argument is that Steve could “man up” and accept that fact that sometimes some things happen that increase an already small death rate to some small multiple of small — which is still small. He makes persuasive use of death graphs and multiples, but he neglects to mention how small the base is to start with. The fact is, in a country of 330,000,000 people, and in a world of over 7,000,000,000, not very many people will die of COVID-19, no matter what anybody does.

    But sure, we now will have the option of vaccines that have been rushed and approved by a corporate-government-elite oligarchy and are now being pushed on us by them and by Steve Sailer. What matters most, really, is that it remain one’s individual choice.

    Will it?

    BTW: No rocky personality worth his crusty salt is afraid of getting stuck by a needle. This one has had more than the usual American share of innoculations, because he got himself a complement of extra ones when he began traveling to Eastern Europe two decades ago, because There Be Dragons There.

    • Agree: Catdog
    • Thanks: Chrisnonymous
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I first thought he meant being afraid of getting stuck by the needle, but to give him credit, he didn't mean it that way, Buzz. When I got my flu shot recently, my boy was a little worried, but I told him I didn't even feel this one. Amazing.

    Agreed with the rest.

    BTW, per recommendations, I got some quinine to bring with me when traveling to the south of China years ago, along with Hepatitis shots. A colleague had me pretty worried about it, maybe for nothing.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    , @SunBakedSuburb
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "man up and get their vaccine shots"

    Steve's great. He's a talented writer. But he lives in a closet. I've manned up by getting the flu shot a few weeks ago. Fortunately, I'm white; the most loathsome of the human species. Getty stooge Newsom keeps referring to "equity" when it comes to vaccine distribution in lovely California. That means whitey to the back of the bus. And when it comes the COVID vaccine I'm okay with that. Though I do miss picking my nose. It's the only way to clean house in there.

    , @Old Prude
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Yeah, Steve’s ‘man up’ is kind of pathetic, especially coming muffled through the closet door like it is.

    Yo, Steve! Utu! Jack! Man up and take off the diaper!

  51. Sure, I want to get back to normal, but the normal for the United States in December 2019 set the stage for:

    the United States of 2020 having more Covid deaths per million than her southern neighbor, Mexico; the United States having far more Covid deaths per million than her northern neighbor, Canada; the United States having more Covid deaths per million than even the minimalist-response and much scolded Sweden.

    Doesn’t this cry out for a Joint House-Senate Select Committee on Health Care Investigation? Or are we all supposed to take our vaccine and wish away America’s dismal and very costly performance during the pandemic?

  52. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    Right, Dr. X. Mr. Sailer tells us to “man up”, but as this country turns into a Gulag that can be LOCKDOWNed at will, 10 years from now, Americans, if you should even be calling them that then, may wonder why their ancestors didn’t man up over the years and fight Totalitarianism. I doubt they’ll be able to get ahold of any Solzhenitsyn books by then, but if so, they will wonder why we didn’t learn anything from certain parts of that book.

    If you want something to compare the mentality that you well-describe here, just travel by air and look at the TSA bullshit that has been going on for 19 years. That hasn’t ended yet. One of those grannies could be THE ONE to try to TERRORIZE us. (I just saw one granny the day before yesterday that could barely lift her arms off the armrests of her wheelchair, so her family had to hold up her arms for the search. #Sickening!)

    Now at the airports, besides those “TSA requires …” announcements over and over, there are now “CDC guidelines say …” announcements. Does Mr. Sailer think this will ever just stop because the Kung Flu PanicFest has been curtailed due to “being over and done”. Government programs are hardly ever over and done, especially when they involve more control and less freedom for Americans.

    • Replies: @Redman
    @Achmed E. Newman


    No more deaths, no more lockdowns, no more masks. It will be over.
     
    It sounds like Steve has hit the jackpot for naive positive thinking. Of course it won't be over. As our population continues to trend older and sicker, there will be any number of new bogiemen blamed for the rising number of deaths. As opposed to the most obvious: age.
    , @Joe Stalin
    @Achmed E. Newman


    If you want something to compare the mentality that you well-describe here, just travel by air and look at the TSA bullshit that has been going on for 19 years. That hasn’t ended yet.
     
    I remember a couple of years back when the Feds were rewriting the flight rules to allow a passenger to once again carry small pocket knives e.g. Swiss Army knives but all the stewardesses whined about the Muzzie terrorists using knives in the 9/11, so the Feds backed off.

    We need to get back to 1960s levels of risk tolerances for this country to come back from the shit-show we're morphing to.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  53. @Guy De Champlagne
    @HammerJack

    China has every reason to keep pumping out pandemics as long as they're able to respond to them quickly and competently while the US just shows off its signature buffoonery and basketcasery. Maybe by the next pandemic they'll blow us out of the water with their vaccine development like China was able to with every other part of their COVID response this time.

    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China. This virus and the responses from the two countries has been the best advertisement for 'Made in China' that they could have hoped for.

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @fnn, @WJ, @Keypusher, @Hhsiii

    It also means the end of “liberal democracy.” We will all have to have Chinese-style totalitarian systems in place to combat the next pandemic-which may come at any time. Pretty soon (if not already), “liberal democracy” will mean nothing more than special privileges for non-whites, immigrants and trans people. Oh, and possibly faked elections with non-verifiable results.

    • Agree: Chrisnonymous
  54. @pyrrhus
    Funny how these mortality statistics are 100% contradicted by Market Ticker's analysis of Social Security data, which shows only a small blip increase in March-April when Cuomo and Witmer were forcing Covid patients into nursing homes, killing about 40,000....Otherwise, nothing...And since when did a few months of trials demonstrate the safety of a new vaccine that injects the novel mRNA into your system?
    Also, they are talking about booster shots every 6 months, and the 2d shot causing severe side effects...let's hear more about that...

    Replies: @Jack D, @danand

    Also, they are talking about booster shots every 6 months

    Who is “they”? CNN, etc. has to fill 24 hours of air time every day so they have all sorts of talking heads on spewing wild speculation. As of now, there is no plan for booster shots – they don’t even have enough to give everyone the initial vaccine. Nor is it possible to know how long the protection of the vaccine lasts since there hasn’t been enough time to test this.

    “Severe” side effects is a term of art. A minority of the vaccine recipients have headache, fever, achiness, soreness around the injection site, etc. for a day or two after their 2nd shot. Nothing worse than that. This is a sign that the vaccine has triggered an immune reaction and is working. It’s better to feel lousy for a day with almost no further risk and gaining immunity from Covid vs. getting very sick and maybe dying from Covid. If there was nothing to be gained from being vaccinated, then sure why subject yourself to a possible lousy day (maybe a day of lost work) for nothing, but in this case the game is worth the candle in my opinion. YMMV.

    • LOL: 3g4me
    • Replies: @pyrrhus
    @Jack D

    I agree that if that were all the side effects, the vaccine would be less of a problem...But apparently the antibodies created last only months, so the assumption has always been that there would be frequent boosters, which greatly increases the risks...All injected vaccines cause a certain incidence of paralysis and death...More than 100 children have died from the measles vaccine...

  55. The self-destructive libertarian tendencies of the American right on display in these comments. No, the elites aren’t particularly bent on locking you down and violating your “civil liberties”. They were perfectly happy to watch you slowly kill yourself with opioids and porn before this ever began. Taste the liberty!

  56. @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack


    What’s changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.
     
    It's at least equally as likely COVID-19 is a "gain of function" experiment that was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's (WIV) BSL-4 lab facilities. This is true mad scientist "research" where through various means a pathogen is given better functionality in humans, or in one of the first notorious experiments, only done in a BSL-2 lab, bird flu was manually passed through a series of ferrets until it transmitted well in them, which likely would include more mammals like humans, ferrets being a favorite animal model for respiratory viruses.

    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research. Note we need a world wide end to this sort of research, which some have claimed has never produced any beneficial results, plenty of other countries allow it, and the PRC is hardly the only country to leak pathogens from their labs. And the biomedical community is terrified that politicians will learn just how very dangerous a lot of their work is, how careless they are at times, and that they'll be subject to draconian restrictions. So they're denying any possibility of this being the source of SARS-CoV-2, and so far getting away with it.

    Replies: @415 reasons, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Mr. Anon, @davidgmillsatty, @Stonewall Jackson

    I’ve recently become convinced that Peter Daszak’s evil EcoHealth group was behind a plan to put a pangolin RBD into a SARS related bat virus as a demonstration of the pandemic potential of wildlife smuggling.

    They had done similar “car and mouse” experiments making murine/feline chimeric CoVs.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bies.202000240

    Now, of course, Daszak, the person probably most responsible in the world for unleashing this pandemic, is on the WHO Committee to investigate its origins.

  57. @Buzz Mohawk
    This is a typically well-thought-out essay by Steve Sailer.

    In addition to the usual logic and statistics, Sailer makes use of his marketing knowledge to exhort rocky personalities to "man up and get their vaccine shots." We are predisposed to listen, because we like to "man up" and be manly, and he knows that.

    The alternative argument is that Steve could "man up" and accept that fact that sometimes some things happen that increase an already small death rate to some small multiple of small -- which is still small. He makes persuasive use of death graphs and multiples, but he neglects to mention how small the base is to start with. The fact is, in a country of 330,000,000 people, and in a world of over 7,000,000,000, not very many people will die of COVID-19, no matter what anybody does.

    But sure, we now will have the option of vaccines that have been rushed and approved by a corporate-government-elite oligarchy and are now being pushed on us by them and by Steve Sailer. What matters most, really, is that it remain one's individual choice.

    Will it?

    BTW: No rocky personality worth his crusty salt is afraid of getting stuck by a needle. This one has had more than the usual American share of innoculations, because he got himself a complement of extra ones when he began traveling to Eastern Europe two decades ago, because There Be Dragons There.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @SunBakedSuburb, @Old Prude

    I first thought he meant being afraid of getting stuck by the needle, but to give him credit, he didn’t mean it that way, Buzz. When I got my flu shot recently, my boy was a little worried, but I told him I didn’t even feel this one. Amazing.

    Agreed with the rest.

    BTW, per recommendations, I got some quinine to bring with me when traveling to the south of China years ago, along with Hepatitis shots. A colleague had me pretty worried about it, maybe for nothing.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Achmed E. Newman


    I first thought he meant being afraid of getting stuck by the needle, but to give him credit, he didn’t mean it that way, Buzz.
     
    I know. What he meant was some fear of getting vaccinated, and I meant that. I'm just a lazy writer with a rocky personality.
  58. @Redneck farmer
    As pointed out in Strategy Page, political and military leaders are mostly over 60, so this resulted in the hystericalness of the reaction.
    Also, the wet markets will probably cause another pandemic in the 2030s.

    Replies: @Anon, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR

    In the 2030s? Awfully specific. Do you know something we don’t?

    • Replies: @Dago Shoes
    @AndrewR

    It would be far, far better to ask that question -- or to have asked it even 5-10 years ago -- of Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci, the whole great group who've run all of the 'simulations' going back a decade who've 'predicted' this event (Event 201, anyone?), the WEF folks -- numerous other suspects who've pretty well apparently 'known' that this was coming … and what they were going to use it to do to US …

    , @Redneck farmer
    @AndrewR

    Just seems every 10 to 20 years something nasty occurs/comes out of China. So another really nasty disease outbreak in the 2030s sounds about right.

  59. OK, it’s not “just the flu” — there’s clearly an added element of mystery and danger.

    But one problem with extricating ourselves from this mess and preparing more effectively for the next is that the maintream media has squandered every ounce of credibility and is no longer a reliable source for calm guidance in a crisis. Their political coverage and non-coverage these past few years has been disgraceful, and they were never all that great to begin with on matters of science and numbers. Look at the hysterical reactions and mood swings regarding the HCQ treatment as just one example.

    Add in the performance of public officials such as Cuomo and deBlasio — ranging from buffoonish at best to duplicitous and power-crazed, and you see why skepticism has become a crucial survival mechanism. Hence the need for contrarian channels such as Unz — if they are allowed to survive.

    Suspicions about motives and agendas aside, I do try to keep an open mind when someone well versed in science and medicine is trying to make a point. But based on my own experience in the media and my view of their more recent performance, most of what people are getting from mainstream sources is pure crap and this makes it tough for a society to move forward on any major challenge.

    • Agree: Redman
  60. @Steve Sailer
    @Jake

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @TomSchmidt, @DCThrowback, @Mr. Anon, @res, @ferd

    universal mask wearing has decimated normal seasonal flu cases.

    universal cloth mask mandates is just about useless v. an aerosol spread virus like COVID.

    • LOL: Polynikes
  61. Will the scaredy cats who don’t want to wear a mask in a supermarket also be too sacred to take the vaccine?

  62. Covid-19 has killed 0.0009% of the people in this nation.
    Covid-19 has killed 1.8% of people who ARE KNOWN to have become infected.
    Covid-19 has killed probably 0.08% of people who actually have become infected.

    The vaccine has been tested for four months.What if we discover that, six months after vaccination, 10% of the people who received the vaccine die from it? That would be 32 million dead people.

    The government would claim, of course, that there had been a sudden outbreak of heart disease.

  63. @Achmed E. Newman
    Steve, you've got a very comprehensive column there. I will write more about the numbers especially as related to the baseline curve, as seen in your previous post, that to me does not seem to keep up with a rapidly aging American population (went up by 1.2 years average age from '18 to '19 and 34% more over 65 Americans in one decade). Yes, I know, your point on the excess deaths of various age groups seems to preclude that being a confounding factor, but something seems wrong at first glance on the 4th graph (raw excess deaths by age group). Are those your own graphs, Steve? You wrote "reliable analyst".

    I'll get back to that, but let me say this about your column:

    a) This was well organized with good graphs, but I still want to get more into the data now. One of your links just went to a google page with a spreadsheet. Where is that data from?

    b) Your one paragraph about your cancer and people's questions about your (lack of) smoking was better, IMO, than the way you've put it before. Instead of saying they tried to blame you for smoking, you worded it just about the way I would have put it. Except, I doubt people felt you "deserved" to die. They would have felt "ahaa, well that was your problem. You shouldn't have smoked. I'll be fine." if you'd told them you were a smoker. You're right that people want to feel that they are not vulnerable.

    c) That said, I guess I'm one with that invulnerable feeling. I've been exposed to this thing from traveling all around during all phases of this, being close to all kinds of people well before most people were wearing masks. I don't seem to get any kinds of respiratory things, so maybe that's why I feel confident this bug has probably already gone through me a few times. Then again, a well-over 60 y/o friend who has gotten pneumonia more than once before does not wear a mask, almost period, must be pretty invulnerable, as he's been ignoring the whole thing action-wise - talks to customers at normal distance, nobody wears masks, et.

    d) We must be in a good area, because our hospitals are not near overcrowded as one keeps hearing. My family member in healthcare said the COVID floor is 10% of the hospital, and they would bring the patients elsewhere if they had to. One patient was on her floor for a few days, turns out with the COVID (missing one symptom, a fever, so some slack-ass doc missed it). Every one of the staff is fine so far, and they hadn't been wearing anything special due to lack of knowledge about this.

    e) I'll go with ID (infectious disease) doctor's opinion, who told my doc friend that, just like the common cold, everyone is going to be in contact with these germs at some point. As for your herd immunity numbers, even that WSJ article you linked to admits that with most of us not getting tested and people with no symptoms, there are likely many more people who've gotten the virus in their systems than reported, so it's a CDC "modeling estimate". OK...

    f) Let those who are vulnerable, or feel vulnerable, take that vaccine. I got a flu shot per healthcare family member's request, but even she is against taking the COVID vaccine. I'm not sure completely why.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @gent

    We must be in a good area, because our hospitals are not near overcrowded as one keeps hearing.

    There are definitely “good areas,” but for how long? Consistent with what I’m hearing about national trends of bad conditions changing to the coasts, demand for COVID-19 beds in my very local part of flyover country has fallen by about 1/5th, and along with everyone else? we didn’t see a post-Thanksgiving surge. So nature and/or human action, we’ve bent the curve enough we aren’t being forced to give substandard care for now.

    But that’s still quite a few people so sick with COVID-19 they require hospitalization, and the deaths keep coming. Not done a real analysis, still seems to be Silent Generation and old Boomers weighted, with the occasional younger person, and while I don’t know the details, someone in my general area under the age of 10 died. Might be like a teenager who at last count was on a respirator, he had at least one terrible comorbidity.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks for the reply, TWBT.

    I've not known of any kid getting sick with this thing, and I know lots of people with kids here. I'd think if even just one kid in the entire metro area died from this, parents would be worried enough to demand going back to remote schooling.

    My point about the numbers can be seen to a degree in the last graph (8th one down) in the imgur file Steve linked to (I guess this is his writing and graphing of data, as he hasn't attributed it to anyone else) - HERE.

    That graph of total death rates per American population has a trend line upwards that would take out about 1/3 of excess deaths if you used it as a baseline ('19 looks like a low point). Why they didn't put it in % rather than deaths/1,000 I don't know, but it's a climb of more like what would be 0.95% otherwise, to 0.99%.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    , @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling


    while I don’t know the details, someone in my general area under the age of 10 died. Might be like a teenager who at last count was on a respirator, he had at least one terrible comorbidity.
     
    Covid is just not a killer of young people. In my county of around 800,000, where almost 1,000 have died in the pandemic, exactly 1 person under 40 has died of Covid and 0 persons under 30. In the rare cases where a child or a teen dies from the disease, if you read to the bottom of the story the child was already seriously ill - had terminal cancer or cystic fibrosis or something that was going to kill him soon anyway.

    Stories about young people dying from Covid make good press because they tug at your heartstrings - a young person cut down in the prime of life. Perhaps a talented athlete or entertainer. So unfair. The reality is that the average Covid patient is 80 years old and lives in a nursing home - their death just doesn't sell clicks because people (rightly) figure that such people were already on the exit ramp from this Vale of Tears.

    Now in between the 80 and 90 year olds and the young folks, there is a big group in between - older Boomers, PoCs in their 40s and 50s who perhaps are not as fit and skinny as they should be, etc. Most of these folks, due to modern medicine, usually have a lot more miles in them despite their less than perfect health. But Covid takes quite a few of them out of the race early.

    Replies: @JimDandy

  64. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Buzz Mohawk

    I first thought he meant being afraid of getting stuck by the needle, but to give him credit, he didn't mean it that way, Buzz. When I got my flu shot recently, my boy was a little worried, but I told him I didn't even feel this one. Amazing.

    Agreed with the rest.

    BTW, per recommendations, I got some quinine to bring with me when traveling to the south of China years ago, along with Hepatitis shots. A colleague had me pretty worried about it, maybe for nothing.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    I first thought he meant being afraid of getting stuck by the needle, but to give him credit, he didn’t mean it that way, Buzz.

    I know. What he meant was some fear of getting vaccinated, and I meant that. I’m just a lazy writer with a rocky personality.

  65. @Jake
    @Dr. X

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people's suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    Replies: @MikeCLT, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR, @Known Fact, @Anonymous, @Magic Dirt Resident, @Richard B

    Let’s not forget that in February and early March, the Democrats were telling everyone to go French kiss random Chinese people to fight xenophobia.

    Now they’re saying we have to extend these absurd restrictions forever unless everyone gets vaccinated (possibly annually). And even that won’t be enough, because they’ll use flu outbreaks to justify tyrannical measures. Tens of thousands of Americans have died of the flu annually for generations. No one seemed to care that much but Democrats will rabidly insist on eliminating flu deaths just like they treat every mass shooting (outside of the ghetto) as apocalyptic. At some point we will have to do things to stand up to the Democrats that would make Steve reach for the smelling salts.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @AndrewR


    Let’s not forget that in February and early March, the Democrats were telling everyone to go French kiss random Chinese people to fight xenophobia.
     
    I'd rather Chinese-checker random Frenchwomen!

    Don't the Russians have some equivalent to our term "Chinese fire drill" involving restaurants?
  66. This is indefensibly naive. The lockdown and the pandemic are two separate things. There is no reason to believe that dealing with one gets you anywhere with the other. The lockdown should have been ended months ago by politicians recognizing how destructive or unscientific it was, or later by protesters; now belated protest is starting to emerge. And none of this restores destroyed capital. The lockdown gave the Democrats everything they wanted. They will not end it because of some medical fact any more than medicine played any role in beginning it. They will end it when they are forced to against their will. Without the will to force the lockdown to end, by procedure or by protest, there is no reason to expect power addicts to surrender power, and no basis for connecting any of this to taking or not taking a money grab boondoggle (which by all accounts will not be available to huge numbers of people until much later anyway).
    tldr: How did we get conquered by China? Bribery, blackmail, but more than anything else, because we tolerated the completely unjustified faith of our elders in poisoned institutions.

  67. @Jake
    It is always a very good thing to trust whatever Bill Gates hawks. The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers, @U. Ranus, @Paul Jolliffe, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden

    It is always a very good thing to trust whatever Bill Gates hawks

    In case this isn’t widespread knowledge, here’s how Gates and BioNTech are connected (from BioNTech SE’s quarterly report):

    On August 30, 2019, BioNTech entered into agreements with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (“BMGF”) under which BioNTech is required to perform certain research and development activities. The issuance of 3,038,674 ordinary shares with the nominal amount of k€ 3,039 was registered with the commercial register (Handelsregister) on September 26, 2019. As result of the transaction the capital reserve increased by k€46,826.

    […]

    If we commit a specified material breach under the letter agreement with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, or BMGF, and such breach remains uncured after a specified period of time (if curable), we are required to either (i) repurchase the shares held by BMGF or locate a third party to purchase the shares from BMGF, in either case at a price that is the greater of the original purchase price or the fair market value of the shares at the time of repurchase, or (ii) if we cannot meet the requirements under (i) (e.g., because we do not have sufficient cash reserves), then we must use our best efforts to effect BMGF’s withdrawal right as soon as practicable, which may mean acquiring the shares in tranches over time. If we are required to repurchase BMGF’s shares, our financial position could be materially and adversely affected.

  68. @Guy De Champlagne
    We should want life to go back to the way it was before, and the faster the better.

    We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. The countries that were hardest hit by SARS are the countries that were the best prepared for COVID because they did just that. It would be a huge mistake and a great tragedy to just go back to normal, learn absolutely nothing, and comfort ourselves with a bunch of just-so stories about how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography.

    Replies: @Jake, @ken, @Pop Warner, @Prester John, @Polynikes, @Rob

    But part of that learn from this moment would have to be an admittal that the response to COVID was crappy and our leaders will never do that.

  69. No thanks.

    And you’re misreporting on the efficacy, they didn’t have to prevent transmission entirely, just show some arbitrary reduction in symptoms.

  70. @That Would Be Telling
    @Hannah Katz


    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter.
     
    Ignoring that he's a pathological liar, and very bad with time based estimates, see his comments on Operation Warp Speed (OWS), this is all about obtaining herd immunity for the 5% who can't get protected by vaccines. If you care about the populations at risk, and view masking with surgical grade plus or minus as at best neutral, which is an open question few are trying to honestly answer (see the Danish study which asked the wrong question), then, yes, we should be under restrictions like masking until herd immunity is reached, naturally or vaccine. Or not, I have no belief enough people will take COVID-19 vaccines to reach it, and we simply can't know at this time if natural immunity will "sterilize," to use the term as vaccine people do, enough people to fill in the gaps. (Sterilize as in, "you will never, ever detect viable SARS-CoV-2 in this person in the future.")

    So we could see out betters saying, hey, get the vaccine to protect the 5% of seniors most at risk who also fail to get a proper response from the vaccines. And if not, "lockdowns forever," and that could well be a winning political strategy for the Democrats. If seniors, probably correctly, view the Right and Republicans as selfish sociopaths who don't give a damn if they live or die, why shouldn't they switch their allegiance to Democrats who at least pretend to care, and who have the MSM covering up things like Cuomo's killing 10-20,000 nursing home residents, and the same policies killing even more per capita in New Jersey, see also Pennsylvania. Without that part of the Republican base, the Democrats won't even have to cheat to win elections.

    Replies: @Catdog, @Steve Sailer

    If seniors, probably correctly, view the Right and Republicans as selfish sociopaths who don’t give a damn if they live or die

    The selfish sociopaths are the oldsters ruining the lives of children and young adults so that they can claw out a few more senescent years watching Wheel of Fortune. The damage this hysteria has caused will outlive them by decades.

    • Agree: Travis
  71. @Jake
    @Dr. X

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people's suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    Replies: @MikeCLT, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR, @Known Fact, @Anonymous, @Magic Dirt Resident, @Richard B

    “Naive” might be too strong because Steve really gives all these statistics a serious crunching in search of some meaning, rather than just accepting the pre-digested conventional wisdom. But while I enjoy a steaming pile of stats as much as anyone, I’m especially skeptical of the mountain of numbers that COVID has generated. Call me vile but there are so many ambiguities and perverse incentives. So what can Steve hope to find when the source material cannot entirely be trusted. Reading berween the lines can help, but still …

  72. @Guy De Champlagne
    @HammerJack

    China has every reason to keep pumping out pandemics as long as they're able to respond to them quickly and competently while the US just shows off its signature buffoonery and basketcasery. Maybe by the next pandemic they'll blow us out of the water with their vaccine development like China was able to with every other part of their COVID response this time.

    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China. This virus and the responses from the two countries has been the best advertisement for 'Made in China' that they could have hoped for.

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @fnn, @WJ, @Keypusher, @Hhsiii

    Our response was not to literally weld people’s houses shut, with the occupants inside. Our response was not to seed the rest of the world with the virus while restricting travel internally. Our response wasn’t to lie about every aspect of the virus including it’s origins.

  73. Steve, you are inadvertently hiding an important factor with your comparisons. It’s the fact that this disease nearly exclusively kills the extremely elderly or very sick.

    Had covid-19 killed half as many in the US as it did (say 150K), but all children and young adults, it would be orders of magnitude more a catastrophe than even a double-covid that killed 500K+ elderly people.

    There is a reason that we spend vast amounts per death on reducing infant and childhood mortality: young healthy deaths matter more than old sick deaths. I’m sorry that the very elderly’s chance of death this year went from 15% to 25%. That’s no fun. But there is no prize for being the oldest guy in the nursing home either.

    Finally, remember that you only get covid once. Risks that are present for the long haul, year in and year out, win in the long run. An effective public exercise program would have saved many more lives than the masks and lockdowns.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Xens

    well stated.

    The average age of the 300,000 deaths is now 79 years-old. We have had more deaths over the age of 80 than under the age of 75. Most young people are unaffected by CV. The majority of young people infected with CV never develop symptoms and few need any medical care to recover.

    90% of inmates who tested positive were asymptomatic in several prison studies. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX

    70% of pregnant women who tested positive were asymptomatic.
    https://www.mountsinai.org/about/newsroom/2020/majority-of-pregnant-women-who-tested-positive-for-covid19-were-asymptomatic-study-finds

    The lockdowns will kill far more young people this year than COVID. Deaths of despair have risen about 10% this year. We expect 74,000 Americans to die from drugs this year. Over the last 5 years 350,000 Americans have dies from drugs, mostly under the age of 40. No warp speed funding to fight the drug epidemic which has been growing yearly for decades.

    , @scrivener3
    @Xens


    An effective public exercise program would have saved many more lives than the masks and lockdowns.
     
    Could an American write this? What could it possibly mean? I have an idea, a locked belt with a heart monitor and taiser built in. If you dont manage 85% of your maximum heart rate for 60 minutes a day four days a week you get tased one time per hour for the next 12 hours. That'll teach you.

    Or perhaps you mean public health announcements sent to smart phones that you have to acknowledge before opening any app.

    Would change nothing except make using your phone less enjoyable.
  74. This would mean several million votes were switched from Trump to Biden:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1339090279429775363

  75. Berkeley City Teachers are in line to be among the first recipients of the new vaccine, but they can not be forced to take the vaccine and can’t be terminated for not being vacinated. So while a solution to hybrid classes is in the offing, in other words, teachers can return to classes, they won’t. The teachers’ union is currently proposing a restart in the Fall of 2021. I would like to see biden-harris deal with this recalcitrance the way Reagan dealt with the Air Traffic Controls. Who am I kidding? And yes ATCs were Fed employees and teachers are local, but I am guessing not a peep from bid-har about teachers, the Golden Goose of dem donors.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Buffalo Joe


    Berkeley City Teachers are in line to be among the first recipients of the new vaccine, but they can not be forced to take the vaccine and can’t be terminated for not being vacinated. So while a solution to hybrid classes is in the offing, in other words, teachers can return to classes, they won’t.
     
    "Chicago Schools Hiring People to Supervise Kids in Class While Teachers Work Remotely"

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Abolish_public_education

  76. @That Would Be Telling
    @Achmed E. Newman


    We must be in a good area, because our hospitals are not near overcrowded as one keeps hearing.
     
    There are definitely "good areas," but for how long? Consistent with what I'm hearing about national trends of bad conditions changing to the coasts, demand for COVID-19 beds in my very local part of flyover country has fallen by about 1/5th, and along with everyone else? we didn't see a post-Thanksgiving surge. So nature and/or human action, we've bent the curve enough we aren't being forced to give substandard care for now.

    But that's still quite a few people so sick with COVID-19 they require hospitalization, and the deaths keep coming. Not done a real analysis, still seems to be Silent Generation and old Boomers weighted, with the occasional younger person, and while I don't know the details, someone in my general area under the age of 10 died. Might be like a teenager who at last count was on a respirator, he had at least one terrible comorbidity.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Jack D

    Thanks for the reply, TWBT.

    I’ve not known of any kid getting sick with this thing, and I know lots of people with kids here. I’d think if even just one kid in the entire metro area died from this, parents would be worried enough to demand going back to remote schooling.

    My point about the numbers can be seen to a degree in the last graph (8th one down) in the imgur file Steve linked to (I guess this is his writing and graphing of data, as he hasn’t attributed it to anyone else) – HERE.

    That graph of total death rates per American population has a trend line upwards that would take out about 1/3 of excess deaths if you used it as a baseline (’19 looks like a low point). Why they didn’t put it in % rather than deaths/1,000 I don’t know, but it’s a climb of more like what would be 0.95% otherwise, to 0.99%.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Ach, deaths from seasonal flu are so rare among the very young, that it was front page news here in WNY when an 11 year old, otherwise very healthy boy, died way back in January. Diagnosed on 6 Jan. and dead on the 9th. Tragic, and newsworthy because of the rarity.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

  77. @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack


    What’s changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.
     
    It's at least equally as likely COVID-19 is a "gain of function" experiment that was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's (WIV) BSL-4 lab facilities. This is true mad scientist "research" where through various means a pathogen is given better functionality in humans, or in one of the first notorious experiments, only done in a BSL-2 lab, bird flu was manually passed through a series of ferrets until it transmitted well in them, which likely would include more mammals like humans, ferrets being a favorite animal model for respiratory viruses.

    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research. Note we need a world wide end to this sort of research, which some have claimed has never produced any beneficial results, plenty of other countries allow it, and the PRC is hardly the only country to leak pathogens from their labs. And the biomedical community is terrified that politicians will learn just how very dangerous a lot of their work is, how careless they are at times, and that they'll be subject to draconian restrictions. So they're denying any possibility of this being the source of SARS-CoV-2, and so far getting away with it.

    Replies: @415 reasons, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Mr. Anon, @davidgmillsatty, @Stonewall Jackson

    I don’t think it’s “equally likely,” I think it’s absolutely the case.

    I do some consulting work with the academic science community and “gain of function” experiments in the virology world have been both hugely controversial AND hugely desired by virologists, the same way a 16 year old boy lusts after the cutest girl in the class.

    Go here:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00210-5

    It’s pretty well known that Fauci and the NIH shifted a bunch of this sort of work to the Chinese because, well, if they can make iPhones in sweat shops, what’s the problem with crazy genetically altered bugs? In my view, it’s the sort of juicy story an enterprising journalist should be licking his chops at, but attacking Saint Anthony and his nutty cabal at the NIAID is clearly verboten.

    I have no doubt that the Chinese are working on bioweapons, but they also see the Pharma business as a huge economic opportunity for them — it’s the perfect industry for an Asian country full of above average IQ folk who have no problem droning in the lab for 30 years.

    The Wuhan is almost certainly an instance where the “gain of function” work was sloppy at the gleaming really modern Wuhan Institute of Virology, and the little bugger escaped when someone forgot to close the door on the way out of the Level 4 lab.

  78. @Steve Sailer
    @Jake

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @TomSchmidt, @DCThrowback, @Mr. Anon, @res, @ferd

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    Sure, the masks and lockdowns have stopped the spread of the respiratory disease known as seasonal influenza (caused by pathogens that in a normal year infect around 10% of the population), but have somehow had no effect at all on the respiratory disease known as COVID-19. Although we should certainly continue taking those measures, and even more stringent measures, because science.

    You are foolishly naive Steve if you think the pandemic can be ended by any rational concrete means. It serves the interests of a too many powerful interests – the people who engineered it (not the virus, but the response). It didn’t bother you that the propaganda (We’re all in this together, six feet apart!, Stay Home, Stay Safe!, Frontline Heros!) started belching forth from the World’s viewscreens as if on cue? A whole carefully crafted and coordinated PR campaign ready to go from Day One, as soon as somebody or somebodies flipped that switch?

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Mr. Anon


    It serves the interests of a too many powerful interests – the people who engineered it (not the virus, but the response).
     
    This is definitely an issue, as is the related issue of the elites not being affected in the same way as everyone else (can do their jobs online from home, etc)...

    It didn’t bother you that the propaganda (We’re all in this together, six feet apart!, Stay Home, Stay Safe!, Frontline Heros!) started belching forth from the World’s viewscreens as if on cue? A whole carefully crafted and coordinated PR campaign ready to go from Day One, as soon as somebody or somebodies flipped that switch?
     
    ...however, this is not right. We have all lived through this together, so people should be able to remember how things developed only a few months ago, and there was not a uniform response that was rolled out by TPTB. The propaganda was a hodgepodge that developed organically over time and has differed somewhat based on locality. As someone who was travelling to NY from from Asia just as things were getting bad in NYC, I was in contact with my local health department and experienced the developing response firsthand as they kept contacting me with new news as New York government was meeting and developing its response plans. The response is actually a strong argument that the pandemic was an accident and not a plan, despite the danger it poses to civil liberties.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mr. Anon

    , @Rockford Tyson
    @Mr. Anon

    Sheer idiocy. Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, "elites" do not benefit from this lockdown at all. The stock of most corporations are down, demand is down, production is down. Except fro maybe a few bankers in Wall Street, economic elites are being crushed by the pandemic. If you think this is good for Sillicon Valley, or for Boeing, or for computer chip manufactuers, you are stupid beyond belief. Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.

    The economy globally will retract 7% this years. Why would elites want to engineer a crisis like this that makes them poorer, that restricts their ability to send money abroad and that ultimately, might even kill them?

    The response to COVID from the government is exactly what you would expect to a pandemic with a degree of severity we haven't seen in 100 years, a virus that no one knew it's etiology, it's infectious capacity, and it's mortality rate. The global President of the Santander bank,one of the richest man in the World, died from COVID. Is this part of the conspiracy, too? To make some of the members of the elite die just to give credibility to the notion that the elite is not conspiring to get the "Great Reset" that the Rightist nutsos like you talk about? You right-wingers are a bunch of delusional idiots.

    Even worse are right-wingers that deny the seriousness of this disease by claiming that the death toll of COVID is much lower because most of the infected people die from other causes, like penumonia. Yeah, except that the person wouldn't have died from pneumonia or even caught it in the first place if it weren't for them being infected from COVID. That is like saying that someone infected with HIV that dies from the Flu did not really die from HIV but from the Flu. The fact is, that same person most likely would have survived the Flu infection if it weren't for them him being infected with HIV in the first place "Unrelated" causes my ass. 2 million dead already and counting. If it weren't for COVID, the vast majority of those people would be alive despite many of them having caught the pneumonia, or the Flu, or the heart failure that "supposedly" killed them.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Mr. Anon, @William Badwhite, @vinteuil

  79. @Achmed E. Newman
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks for the reply, TWBT.

    I've not known of any kid getting sick with this thing, and I know lots of people with kids here. I'd think if even just one kid in the entire metro area died from this, parents would be worried enough to demand going back to remote schooling.

    My point about the numbers can be seen to a degree in the last graph (8th one down) in the imgur file Steve linked to (I guess this is his writing and graphing of data, as he hasn't attributed it to anyone else) - HERE.

    That graph of total death rates per American population has a trend line upwards that would take out about 1/3 of excess deaths if you used it as a baseline ('19 looks like a low point). Why they didn't put it in % rather than deaths/1,000 I don't know, but it's a climb of more like what would be 0.95% otherwise, to 0.99%.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    Ach, deaths from seasonal flu are so rare among the very young, that it was front page news here in WNY when an 11 year old, otherwise very healthy boy, died way back in January. Diagnosed on 6 Jan. and dead on the 9th. Tragic, and newsworthy because of the rarity.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Buffalo Joe

    Sure, but complications arising from common colds and flu lead to the occasional deaths of children every year, so they are flogging this to hype the WuFlu.

  80. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation

    If only they were doing that. One check for $1200. Meanwhile other industrialized nations are covering 70, 80 or 90 percent of lost wages and business losses caused by lockdowns. And in the midst of this unfathomable government fuckery and sadistic miserliness, Rubio pours salt on the wound with this:

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Bragadocious

    When thousands of Americans are lined up for food banks (in their cars, which begs the question of how they afford the petrol), it takes a brave politico to borrow more on the backs of those Americans to give yet another $10 per man, woman, child, and non-binary in the US to defend a country whose own residents still rank in the top 20% of the world’s per capita GDP ....

    Brava, Senator Rubio.

    How about running “Text Help to 55555 to send $10 for Israel’s defense” ads on TV, and let’s see how much actual Americans would give if given the choice?

    Replies: @Jack D

  81. @Hannah Katz
    @Dr. X

    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter. F Fauci.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Barnard, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Travis

    Even after the total failure of the Thanksgiving Freakout, as Alex Berenson is calling it, the lockdown zealots haven’t adjusted tactics at all. They are now claiming that the natural decline after this spike is proof that masks work. The idea that everyone getting the vaccine will stop the Great Reset is naive at best. The doctor on MSNBC who said even though he has been vaccinated he won’t travel until “Dr. Fauci says it is safe” is what they are trying to promote. There will always be another crisis.

  82. Combined: Nineteen cases in the vaccine group, 347 in the placebo group. (That’s not an insignificant sample size.)

    Those aren’t samples. The groups of those who got the vaxx and those who got the placebo are samples. The cases are observed incidences of infection in the sample groups at the the time the observations were deemed closed for the purposes of calculating efficacy.

    The efficacy announced is a measure of risk reduction at the time observations were stopped. If observations continue to be made (and you can bet they will), the efficacy could conceivably be even higher, but could also be considerably lower

    What remains undisclosed is the representativeness of the sample groups to one another, though I suspect they would indeed have addressed that by random selection of the treatment groups, as well as to the population as a whole, which they probably didn’t control for very well because they were dealing with volunteers rather than drawing random subjects from the population as a whole. Also unaddressed is the potential for differences in exposure to the virus in the wild (the assumption with very large sized sample groups is that this will be smoothed out by the large number of participants).

    What remains in question is the actual safety (the declaration of safety is based on very short-term data, just like the efficacy), as well as the durability of the vaccine; the cynic in me thinks it will be deliberately attenuated so that these vaccines become an annuity of income for big pharma and a never-ending means of population control measures for governments acting through big biz … no vaxx, no travel … no vaxx, no concerts … ultimately, no vaxx, no food.

    Oh, and the difference of incidences between the two groups at the point they stopped counting cases might have actually been statistically significant … I’ll leave it to you to do the math for yourself before you again declare something statistical to be significant.

    • Replies: @Dutch Boy
    @The Alarmist

    One wonders what the definition of a "case" was. A positive PCR test? Pish! Actual symptoms or need for medical care? That would be meaningful.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

  83. @Jake
    It is always a very good thing to trust whatever Bill Gates hawks. The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers, @U. Ranus, @Paul Jolliffe, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden

    “We’ve got to help out with the tools now so they are not faced with an impossible situation later.”

    https://www.gatesnotes.com/about-bill-gates/a-conversation-with-bill-gates-population-growth

  84. @Buffalo Joe
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Ach, deaths from seasonal flu are so rare among the very young, that it was front page news here in WNY when an 11 year old, otherwise very healthy boy, died way back in January. Diagnosed on 6 Jan. and dead on the 9th. Tragic, and newsworthy because of the rarity.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    Sure, but complications arising from common colds and flu lead to the occasional deaths of children every year, so they are flogging this to hype the WuFlu.

    • Agree: Buffalo Joe
  85. What about the UN’s projected increase in the US death rate? Why does the CDC seemingly not increase its predicted annual total deaths, rather than base its curve on an average of the past few years? I’ve mentioned this here several times before, but for some reason nobody but me seems to think it significant.

    Maybe this is the other “world’s most important graph” which Steve would rather not look at:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

    In 2010, the death rate was 8.138/1000. In 2025, the death rate is projected to be 9.280/1000. That’s an increase of 14%. This year we are on track to have about 10%-12% more total deaths than in 2019. My point is not to suggest that Covid wasn’t a bad flu. But even a mild flu (or weak flu) will be able to kill far more people than typical when a population rapidly ages. The more we are able to keep alive the elderly with extreme medical treatment and procedures, the more people will die when even a slightly stronger strain of flu comes along. As the boomers become elderly and are kept alive with ever more extreme science, this will only be getting worse in the years to come.

    The UN projected death rate for 2050 is 10.572/1000, or 30% higher than the low water mark of 2010. Should we expect another societal freak out like this year’s around 2050? Or will we have accepted aging a little more gracefully by then?

  86. @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack


    What’s changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.
     
    It's at least equally as likely COVID-19 is a "gain of function" experiment that was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's (WIV) BSL-4 lab facilities. This is true mad scientist "research" where through various means a pathogen is given better functionality in humans, or in one of the first notorious experiments, only done in a BSL-2 lab, bird flu was manually passed through a series of ferrets until it transmitted well in them, which likely would include more mammals like humans, ferrets being a favorite animal model for respiratory viruses.

    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research. Note we need a world wide end to this sort of research, which some have claimed has never produced any beneficial results, plenty of other countries allow it, and the PRC is hardly the only country to leak pathogens from their labs. And the biomedical community is terrified that politicians will learn just how very dangerous a lot of their work is, how careless they are at times, and that they'll be subject to draconian restrictions. So they're denying any possibility of this being the source of SARS-CoV-2, and so far getting away with it.

    Replies: @415 reasons, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Mr. Anon, @davidgmillsatty, @Stonewall Jackson

    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research.

    My understanding was that a moratorium on new-starts in GoF research was put into place in 2014. Already funded projects were suspended for a couple of months for evaluation and then resumed in 2015. The one project you mentioned, funded by NIAID (and Fauci is reportedly a big proponent of GoF research) was done in collaboration with the WIV; the first phase involved collecting and evaluating samples and the second phase, started in the summer of 2019 (and terminated without much comment although evidently with some panic in April of 2020) involved Gain-of-Function research. But then, you know how research often works. A researcher asking for funding to start working on something in year x, has often already started working on it in year x-1 or x-2. The best way to deliver on your promise is to promise something that you’ve already done. Who really knows how much GoF work on corona viruses has already been done (or by whom)?

  87. Great piece, but especially these two blow-my-socks-off brilliant insights.

    it’s natural to be overconfident about a disease on the grounds that you don’t deserve to die.

    and

    which meant that they didn’t deserve to die, and, to a rough approximation, that therefore they would never die.

    • Agree: AKAHorace
    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @International Jew

    "Great piece, but especially these two blow-my-socks-off brilliant insights."

    /Sarc, I assume? I had these insights in my late teens. Sailer seems quite pleased with himself that he discovered them in middle age after his boring brush with cancer - a boring though alarming experience many others have enjoyed, myself included. I never once insisted everyone else change their lives or demean and dehumanize themselves cuz I scared, though. Nauseating.

  88. @HammerJack
    What's changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.

    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.

    Replies: @Nodwink, @That Would Be Telling, @Guy De Champlagne, @That Would Be Telling, @Hypnotoad666, @Hapalong Cassidy

    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.

    No re-do in ’22!

  89. @pyrrhus
    Funny how these mortality statistics are 100% contradicted by Market Ticker's analysis of Social Security data, which shows only a small blip increase in March-April when Cuomo and Witmer were forcing Covid patients into nursing homes, killing about 40,000....Otherwise, nothing...And since when did a few months of trials demonstrate the safety of a new vaccine that injects the novel mRNA into your system?
    Also, they are talking about booster shots every 6 months, and the 2d shot causing severe side effects...let's hear more about that...

    Replies: @Jack D, @danand

    “…they are talking about booster shots every 6 months”

    Pyrrhus, I confirm what your hearing. Our local news affiliates for ABC, NBC, CBS have been touting that in recent days. The consensus seems to be that “while they don’t know” it’s expected boosters while be required somewhere between every 4 to 12 months. I would assume this would be the case until the virus is “extinguished”. I guess seems about right given that’s about the protection afforded by a regular flu vaccination?

    61696EE8-93ED-4ACB-8924-D275829E70F0

    While hearing of a few reported Covid-19 sufferers becoming reinfected, it does not appear, given the lack of reports, to occur too often. Let’s hope that holds, but those same news reports are saying that even those who have had Covid-19 will still need vaccination.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @danand

    Covid and the flu are two completely different viruses. The flu virus is known to mutate constantly so that one reason the effectiveness of the vaccine drops off is that the strains that are out there six months from now are not the ones you have been vaccinated against. Covid seems more stable and the spike protein target may be especially stable such that the vaccines will continue to work even if the virus mutates. Some vaccines (measles) are thought to confer lifetime immunity and never require boosters.

    We really don't know how long Covid immunity (either from the vaccine or from the disease itself) lasts because it hasn't been around long enough to know. In the fullness of time, we will know the answer to this question and doctors will be able to make a science based recommendation for those who have already had the disease or the vaccine. In the meantime, all we have is speculation. Speculation is cheap - they give it away for free on TV. But knowing how long flu vaccine immunity lasts add nothing.

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @danand


    Our local news affiliates for ABC, NBC, CBS have been touting that in recent days. The consensus seems to be that “while they don’t know” it’s expected boosters while be required somewhere between every 4 to 12 months. I would assume this would be the case until the virus is “extinguished”. I guess seems about right given that’s about the protection afforded by a regular flu vaccination?
     
    The MSM?!?!! See also the BAD ORANGE MAN who's constant pushing made these vaccines available, albeit under Emergency Use Authorizations, as soon as possible, with no relevant shortcuts to those who are taking them now, These mRNA vaccines are entirely unlike the flu vaccine, which also has a problem in that even the body with a natural infection can't muster an "eternal" immune response, like it can with so many other viruses. Details:

    With the successful development of mRNA vaccines, I've divided the universe of vaccines into active and passive categories. The former previous ones are "live" viruses that have had either their fangs removed ("attenuated"), or are unrelated to the target, have had their ability to reproduce gimped, and code for one or more target proteins spliced into them, here the infamous spike one. Examples include the AZ/Oxford clown show, the Janssen ambitious one dose one billion people by the end of 2021, and Sputnik V, unfortunately now a political football but has great theory. mRNA vaccines are just like the live virus vaccines, except their payload is only the code to make a stabilized spike protein. The only thing these COVID-19 vaccines lack compared to natural immunity is a reaction to the nucleocapsid protein.

    "Passive" vaccines don't hijack cells, as I understand it don't provide as full as in broad immune system response, are either proteins with adjuvants!!! like the flu vaccine, or "killed," inactivated wild type virus like the Salk type polio vaccines. I don't know much about their limitations, the polio one is eternal but not "sterilizing", doesn't stop you from getting it in your gut and passing it on to others, but do note that the common TDaP one that targets toxic bacteria proteins need booster doses every 5-10 years (and get them, lockjaw is an ugly way to die).

    Now onto what makes an "eternal" immune system response: is what the immune system latches onto "conserved" or not? That is, for instance, a part of a protein that cannot change much or "the virus won't virus?" To use enzymes as an example, they're like locks into which a key fits more or less precisely, the key being whatever the enzyme works on. Change the lock's pins too much, and it no longer functions.

    So for the flu, natural infection, or H or H+N protein vaccines, whatever it latches onto is not conserved, it can change enough that immunity to previous flu strains doesn't help, or help as much. Change enough, and you get a flu pandemic. On the other hand, fairly recently as these things go, some old folk's blood was checked to see if they appeared to have an "eternal" response to the 1918-9 pandemic flu strain, and it appears they did.

    So, we don't know natural immunity or the current vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 will produce an eternal immune system response, by definition can't know until more time passes, but we so far believe it to be true.
  90. One hopeful sign is the growing diversity of government officials tasked with safeguarding the public’s health. Many have impressive degrees, though not in anything related to actual science or medicine. And many have first-hand experience living life as not just one but multiple genders, so they are especially insightful.

    • LOL: Cortes, Excal
  91. @Jack D
    @pyrrhus


    Also, they are talking about booster shots every 6 months
     
    Who is "they"? CNN, etc. has to fill 24 hours of air time every day so they have all sorts of talking heads on spewing wild speculation. As of now, there is no plan for booster shots - they don't even have enough to give everyone the initial vaccine. Nor is it possible to know how long the protection of the vaccine lasts since there hasn't been enough time to test this.

    "Severe" side effects is a term of art. A minority of the vaccine recipients have headache, fever, achiness, soreness around the injection site, etc. for a day or two after their 2nd shot. Nothing worse than that. This is a sign that the vaccine has triggered an immune reaction and is working. It's better to feel lousy for a day with almost no further risk and gaining immunity from Covid vs. getting very sick and maybe dying from Covid. If there was nothing to be gained from being vaccinated, then sure why subject yourself to a possible lousy day (maybe a day of lost work) for nothing, but in this case the game is worth the candle in my opinion. YMMV.

    Replies: @pyrrhus

    I agree that if that were all the side effects, the vaccine would be less of a problem…But apparently the antibodies created last only months, so the assumption has always been that there would be frequent boosters, which greatly increases the risks…All injected vaccines cause a certain incidence of paralysis and death…More than 100 children have died from the measles vaccine…

  92. I am eager to hear about side effects from taking weaponized
    Pfizer vaccine on you and your family members. They will
    curse your name for encouraging them to take that vaccine
    as long as they live.

  93. Yes it IS just the flu.

  94. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Dr. X

    Right, Dr. X. Mr. Sailer tells us to "man up", but as this country turns into a Gulag that can be LOCKDOWNed at will, 10 years from now, Americans, if you should even be calling them that then, may wonder why their ancestors didn't man up over the years and fight Totalitarianism. I doubt they'll be able to get ahold of any Solzhenitsyn books by then, but if so, they will wonder why we didn't learn anything from certain parts of that book.

    If you want something to compare the mentality that you well-describe here, just travel by air and look at the TSA bullshit that has been going on for 19 years. That hasn't ended yet. One of those grannies could be THE ONE to try to TERRORIZE us. (I just saw one granny the day before yesterday that could barely lift her arms off the armrests of her wheelchair, so her family had to hold up her arms for the search. #Sickening!)

    Now at the airports, besides those "TSA requires ..." announcements over and over, there are now "CDC guidelines say ..." announcements. Does Mr. Sailer think this will ever just stop because the Kung Flu PanicFest has been curtailed due to "being over and done". Government programs are hardly ever over and done, especially when they involve more control and less freedom for Americans.

    Replies: @Redman, @Joe Stalin

    No more deaths, no more lockdowns, no more masks. It will be over.

    It sounds like Steve has hit the jackpot for naive positive thinking. Of course it won’t be over. As our population continues to trend older and sicker, there will be any number of new bogiemen blamed for the rising number of deaths. As opposed to the most obvious: age.

  95. @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack


    What’s changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.
     
    It's at least equally as likely COVID-19 is a "gain of function" experiment that was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's (WIV) BSL-4 lab facilities. This is true mad scientist "research" where through various means a pathogen is given better functionality in humans, or in one of the first notorious experiments, only done in a BSL-2 lab, bird flu was manually passed through a series of ferrets until it transmitted well in them, which likely would include more mammals like humans, ferrets being a favorite animal model for respiratory viruses.

    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research. Note we need a world wide end to this sort of research, which some have claimed has never produced any beneficial results, plenty of other countries allow it, and the PRC is hardly the only country to leak pathogens from their labs. And the biomedical community is terrified that politicians will learn just how very dangerous a lot of their work is, how careless they are at times, and that they'll be subject to draconian restrictions. So they're denying any possibility of this being the source of SARS-CoV-2, and so far getting away with it.

    Replies: @415 reasons, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Mr. Anon, @davidgmillsatty, @Stonewall Jackson

    Except that Italy is now in the lead for earliest human infection, beating China by several months

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33176598/

    “SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%)….

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @davidgmillsatty

    ... because of all the Chinese there. Italy built Chinese sweatshops and shipped the slaves in to be able to have a "Made In Italy" label.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  96. @Buzz Mohawk
    This is a typically well-thought-out essay by Steve Sailer.

    In addition to the usual logic and statistics, Sailer makes use of his marketing knowledge to exhort rocky personalities to "man up and get their vaccine shots." We are predisposed to listen, because we like to "man up" and be manly, and he knows that.

    The alternative argument is that Steve could "man up" and accept that fact that sometimes some things happen that increase an already small death rate to some small multiple of small -- which is still small. He makes persuasive use of death graphs and multiples, but he neglects to mention how small the base is to start with. The fact is, in a country of 330,000,000 people, and in a world of over 7,000,000,000, not very many people will die of COVID-19, no matter what anybody does.

    But sure, we now will have the option of vaccines that have been rushed and approved by a corporate-government-elite oligarchy and are now being pushed on us by them and by Steve Sailer. What matters most, really, is that it remain one's individual choice.

    Will it?

    BTW: No rocky personality worth his crusty salt is afraid of getting stuck by a needle. This one has had more than the usual American share of innoculations, because he got himself a complement of extra ones when he began traveling to Eastern Europe two decades ago, because There Be Dragons There.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @SunBakedSuburb, @Old Prude

    “man up and get their vaccine shots”

    Steve’s great. He’s a talented writer. But he lives in a closet. I’ve manned up by getting the flu shot a few weeks ago. Fortunately, I’m white; the most loathsome of the human species. Getty stooge Newsom keeps referring to “equity” when it comes to vaccine distribution in lovely California. That means whitey to the back of the bus. And when it comes the COVID vaccine I’m okay with that. Though I do miss picking my nose. It’s the only way to clean house in there.

  97. @Guy De Champlagne
    We should want life to go back to the way it was before, and the faster the better.

    We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. The countries that were hardest hit by SARS are the countries that were the best prepared for COVID because they did just that. It would be a huge mistake and a great tragedy to just go back to normal, learn absolutely nothing, and comfort ourselves with a bunch of just-so stories about how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography.

    Replies: @Jake, @ken, @Pop Warner, @Prester John, @Polynikes, @Rob

    how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography

    But those are the reasons. As the US is a democratic country and very federalized it means that states or cities can openly resist the federal government to everybody’s detriment. China’s authoritarian system allowed them to completely seal off Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province with absolutely no pushback. Meanwhile, Cuomo threw a massive fit when Rhode Island was screening New York license plates for entry (when the virus was largely contained in New York). And he had judges backing him up effectively preventing the kind of response China had.

    I knew from the beginning that China would handle this better than the US. Their autocratic system can respond much quicker to crises because they don’t have to worry about excessive legalism, factions intentionally hurting themselves to spite their opponents, and individual liberties. The US, on the other hand, had some politicians downplay the virus to keep the economy afloat (Trump), and others downplayed or exacerbated the death toll because it would help their party’s chances in the upcoming election (democrats, especially mayors and governors where the virus hit the hardest and who put infected patients in nursing homes). Any Chinaesque measure Trump could have taken that would be effective would have been immediately challenged and resisted as we saw all throughout 2020 – Kamala Harris said in the same sentence that she would reject any vaccine Trump endorsed but accept any vaccine Fauci endorsed. His “leave it to the states” strategy meant that the pandemic would never really stop as it went to new places who had different standards. Then the same politicians who (eventually) were the most psychotic about shutdowns completely flipped when it came to peaceful riots against white people and endorsed thousands of people packing the streets, because I guess corona-chan takes a knee for racism. Who needs a vaccine when Saint Floyd protects us?

    All this pandemic really did was expose the incompetence and disunity of the United States. It showed that there is absolutely no sense of unity or camaraderie between American citizens, and there is nothing that can stop the eventual collapse. The Antonine Plague dealt Rome a crushing blow, and it seems the US is also in the Late Imperial Period. Our leaders have been shown to be not just hypocrites but murderous hypocrites, and our media is willing to lie in every way to protect them.

    • Replies: @vinteuil
    @Pop Warner


    I knew from the beginning that China would handle this better than the US.
     
    Yeah, I bet you did.
  98. Great. Now how about a column about the stolen election?

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    @James Braxton

    The election wasn’t stolen. Trump lost. Grow up.

    There, done.

    Replies: @James Braxton

  99. ‘Over in done in ’21 . . . until ’22!’ The swine flu and Zika and MERS and so on didn’t work, but this one stuck good, the ‘great reset’, the ‘new normal’. (Every crisis seems to result in a shrinking universe. There was a British study I cannot seem to locate now that showed the smaller and smaller radius of children’s travel from their home from the beginning of the 20th century forward. Now all the kiddies are stuck at the computer desk or kitchen table. What next with that VR headset crap that, thankfully, doesn’t seem to be gaining traction for the moment.) There are already concerns about the effectiveness of the vaccines in production against mutations of the SARS CoV2, so I guess we can either go into lockdown every time a novel virus arises, or, just to be safe, stay in some modified version of lock down permanently. It seems a better approach, a simpler approach, would be to severely regulate international travel, shut down to travel to ‘hot spots’ as they arise and quarantine those who have been to the hot spots. Of course that would require that the bureaucracy is more interested in the health of the citizenry than exploiting the opportunity for control and making a buck. Another approach might be to improve the general health of Americans. Nah, what with Stevo and all of his co-morbidity semantics. They had an article in the local news about the threat of Covid for young adults because the local young adults, rightly, didn’t think that they were at great risk. To make their newsy point they used as an example a college athlete who died from neurological complications due to Covid. (This is a kid who lived several states away, apparently no local deaths being available to exploit.) If you didn’t read past the headline you wouldn’t have found out that he had been diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome.

  100. @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack

    Excellent article in every way, although of course you could have scaremongered more about morbidity, and perhaps pointed out people generally have a choice of an uncontrolled wild type infection involving zillions of cells, or a controlled real or quasi-infection (virus vector or mRNA), or protein plus adjuvants!!!, although the Operation Warp Speed big bet on Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline is requiring a restart, their dosing for the elderly "produced 'insufficient immune response,'" see the newer formulations of the same style flu vaccines for this population, four times the protein antigens as the normal, my father certainly noticed the difference.

    As previously discussed on iSteve, your point in the article about giving our betters less time and fodder to engineer a Great Reset is worthy of serious consideration. In the US, if enough people don't get either natural or vaccine immunity (the former the term for getting the wild type infection), in Blue states it'll be "lockdowns forever," or until they run out of money, people willing to tolerate their shenanigans, etc. Depopulating NYC sounds great in theory, but we know from the Californication of various western states, plus see New Hampshire, that these people will bring the attitudes that turned their former hellholes to wherever they decamp to. And who knows what a Biden or Harris in the White House might try to impose on the entire country, the former having previously warned us about a "dark winter." And he's probably not all wrong....

    For those worrying about the safety of mRNA vaccines, it's clear almost all those on iSteve simply aren't going to be eligible for the first tranche of mRNA vaccines, so they'll have a lot more time to learn from the data of the Phase III trial participants, and for those one in million problems that you're unlikely to find when you only give vaccines to a few tens of thousands, from the Phase IV experiences of tens of millions getting the vaccines starting in the last couple of days.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @Rex Little, @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang

    “see the newer formulations of the same style flu vaccines for this population, four times the protein antigens as the normal, my father certainly noticed the difference”

    I know someone who was so knocked about by the over-65 UK flu jab he immediately booked a Covid test.

  101. All government policies suck.

    The government policy of voluntary vaccinations will inevitably mutate into a coercive one.

    The DEMs are pro-choice on exactly one issue.

    The GOPs will support tax credits for businesses that get their workers vaccinated.

    [MORE]

    In many states, public education started out as a non-compulsory program of matching funds:

    Parents who sent their kids to the member-supported, “little red schoolhouse” for three months (which had been the cultural norm, anyhow) were entitled to three months of government funding (in order to extend the term).

    The 180-day school year.

  102. 100 million Americans have recovered from COVID by now. The worst case scenario would be 80 million are infected over the next 12 months and 200,000 deaths in 2021, as treatments have improved and millions of Americans have immunity now.

    Moderna has 20 million doses to distribute this month and Pfizer will distribute 24 million doses this month, so 22 million Americans can be inoculated by January and 50 million Americans should be vaccinated by February. There are 55 million Americans over the age of 65 and most of them will be vaccinated by March.

    by April about 165 million Americans adults will have immunity, which is 67% of the adult population. Herd immunity will be achieved due to a combination of the vaccine and the 100 million who have immunity after recovering from COVID. Most people who have recovered from coronavirus will skip getting vaccinated. So we should not have too many people who have recovered from COVID rushing to get the vaccine, most of the asymptomatic are under the age of 40 and less fearful of getting sick from this virus anyway. Most of the young people do not know they have recovered, because they had zero symptoms, many of them may eventually get vaccinated after all the elderly are vaccinated.

  103. @danand
    @pyrrhus

    “...they are talking about booster shots every 6 months”

    Pyrrhus, I confirm what your hearing. Our local news affiliates for ABC, NBC, CBS have been touting that in recent days. The consensus seems to be that “while they don’t know” it’s expected boosters while be required somewhere between every 4 to 12 months. I would assume this would be the case until the virus is “extinguished”. I guess seems about right given that’s about the protection afforded by a regular flu vaccination?

    https://flic.kr/p/2iU8g3r

    While hearing of a few reported Covid-19 sufferers becoming reinfected, it does not appear, given the lack of reports, to occur too often. Let’s hope that holds, but those same news reports are saying that even those who have had Covid-19 will still need vaccination.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

    Covid and the flu are two completely different viruses. The flu virus is known to mutate constantly so that one reason the effectiveness of the vaccine drops off is that the strains that are out there six months from now are not the ones you have been vaccinated against. Covid seems more stable and the spike protein target may be especially stable such that the vaccines will continue to work even if the virus mutates. Some vaccines (measles) are thought to confer lifetime immunity and never require boosters.

    We really don’t know how long Covid immunity (either from the vaccine or from the disease itself) lasts because it hasn’t been around long enough to know. In the fullness of time, we will know the answer to this question and doctors will be able to make a science based recommendation for those who have already had the disease or the vaccine. In the meantime, all we have is speculation. Speculation is cheap – they give it away for free on TV. But knowing how long flu vaccine immunity lasts add nothing.

    • Thanks: northeast
  104. @danand
    @pyrrhus

    “...they are talking about booster shots every 6 months”

    Pyrrhus, I confirm what your hearing. Our local news affiliates for ABC, NBC, CBS have been touting that in recent days. The consensus seems to be that “while they don’t know” it’s expected boosters while be required somewhere between every 4 to 12 months. I would assume this would be the case until the virus is “extinguished”. I guess seems about right given that’s about the protection afforded by a regular flu vaccination?

    https://flic.kr/p/2iU8g3r

    While hearing of a few reported Covid-19 sufferers becoming reinfected, it does not appear, given the lack of reports, to occur too often. Let’s hope that holds, but those same news reports are saying that even those who have had Covid-19 will still need vaccination.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

    Our local news affiliates for ABC, NBC, CBS have been touting that in recent days. The consensus seems to be that “while they don’t know” it’s expected boosters while be required somewhere between every 4 to 12 months. I would assume this would be the case until the virus is “extinguished”. I guess seems about right given that’s about the protection afforded by a regular flu vaccination?

    The MSM?!?!! See also the BAD ORANGE MAN who’s constant pushing made these vaccines available, albeit under Emergency Use Authorizations, as soon as possible, with no relevant shortcuts to those who are taking them now, These mRNA vaccines are entirely unlike the flu vaccine, which also has a problem in that even the body with a natural infection can’t muster an “eternal” immune response, like it can with so many other viruses. Details:

    With the successful development of mRNA vaccines, I’ve divided the universe of vaccines into active and passive categories. The former previous ones are “live” viruses that have had either their fangs removed (“attenuated”), or are unrelated to the target, have had their ability to reproduce gimped, and code for one or more target proteins spliced into them, here the infamous spike one. Examples include the AZ/Oxford clown show, the Janssen ambitious one dose one billion people by the end of 2021, and Sputnik V, unfortunately now a political football but has great theory. mRNA vaccines are just like the live virus vaccines, except their payload is only the code to make a stabilized spike protein. The only thing these COVID-19 vaccines lack compared to natural immunity is a reaction to the nucleocapsid protein.

    “Passive” vaccines don’t hijack cells, as I understand it don’t provide as full as in broad immune system response, are either proteins with adjuvants!!! like the flu vaccine, or “killed,” inactivated wild type virus like the Salk type polio vaccines. I don’t know much about their limitations, the polio one is eternal but not “sterilizing”, doesn’t stop you from getting it in your gut and passing it on to others, but do note that the common TDaP one that targets toxic bacteria proteins need booster doses every 5-10 years (and get them, lockjaw is an ugly way to die).

    Now onto what makes an “eternal” immune system response: is what the immune system latches onto “conserved” or not? That is, for instance, a part of a protein that cannot change much or “the virus won’t virus?” To use enzymes as an example, they’re like locks into which a key fits more or less precisely, the key being whatever the enzyme works on. Change the lock’s pins too much, and it no longer functions.

    So for the flu, natural infection, or H or H+N protein vaccines, whatever it latches onto is not conserved, it can change enough that immunity to previous flu strains doesn’t help, or help as much. Change enough, and you get a flu pandemic. On the other hand, fairly recently as these things go, some old folk’s blood was checked to see if they appeared to have an “eternal” response to the 1918-9 pandemic flu strain, and it appears they did.

    So, we don’t know natural immunity or the current vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 will produce an eternal immune system response, by definition can’t know until more time passes, but we so far believe it to be true.

    • Thanks: ic1000
  105. Anon[358] • Disclaimer says:

    The biggest question that I have is whether there are permanent or chronic effects from Covid. Remember in the spring when there were reports of serious cellular damage to the lungs, and then there was speculation about kidney damage and liver damage, and then a few young athletes seemed to have heart damage, and finally there were reports of blood-brain barrier breaching and brain damage?

    And then this all kind of disappeared. So I thought that it probably didn’t pan out, and permanent problems were not present as long as you could avoid the ultimate permanent side effect of death.

    But I was watching Bret Weinstein’s podcast the other day. (I’ve begun to think that Eric Weinstein is drifting into adult-onset schizophrenia/paranoia, and Bret, who I’ve admired, may also starting to go a bit off the deep end. So there’s that.)

    But Bret Weinstein thinks that the long-term dangers are real, to the tune of taking maybe a decade of life span off of victims. In other words, if you are young and completely healthy and get Covid, then you may come out of it with, say, the lungs of someone who will come down with COPD and die at 70 rather than 80, something along those lines, if I am reading between the lines of what he is hinting at. And he does hint, since he is paranoid that YouTube will demonetize him or knock his channel offline — the way that the online giants instantly “raptured” Dr. Mike Yeadon off the planet for expressing doubts about vaccines has got Weinstein spooked.

    (The vaccines are great, I want them as soon as possible, and I think Yeadon is a crank. But perhaps the tech oligarchy is getting a little too powerful.)

    So to sum up: Maybe we shouldn’t be so casual about the young getting Covid to supplement vaccines and produce herd immunity, until chronic effect are more fully understood.

  106. I have no intention of taking this vaccine until at least 25% of the population has taken it, and whatever boosters are deemed necessary, and we have studied the data obtained from the process for at least 2 years. You may believe a m-RNA vaccine is completely safe, but we don’t know it to a degree that would make me willing to be a guinea pig at this point in time.

    Here is the thing, though- we have been taking influenza A and B vaccines for decades now, and influenza A and B continue to kill people every single year- the same is going to be true for COVID-19 even if everybody takes the vaccine this one time. The virus turned endemic last Spring, and nothing is ever going to change that. It will be just another respiratory illness that continues to kill the infirm elderly from now on, just like the flus and all the other respiratory pathogens that are our Grim Reapers.

  107. @Buffalo Joe
    Berkeley City Teachers are in line to be among the first recipients of the new vaccine, but they can not be forced to take the vaccine and can't be terminated for not being vacinated. So while a solution to hybrid classes is in the offing, in other words, teachers can return to classes, they won't. The teachers' union is currently proposing a restart in the Fall of 2021. I would like to see biden-harris deal with this recalcitrance the way Reagan dealt with the Air Traffic Controls. Who am I kidding? And yes ATCs were Fed employees and teachers are local, but I am guessing not a peep from bid-har about teachers, the Golden Goose of dem donors.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Berkeley City Teachers are in line to be among the first recipients of the new vaccine, but they can not be forced to take the vaccine and can’t be terminated for not being vacinated. So while a solution to hybrid classes is in the offing, in other words, teachers can return to classes, they won’t.

    Chicago Schools Hiring People to Supervise Kids in Class While Teachers Work Remotely

    • LOL: Old Prude
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @That Would Be Telling

    That Would....., Chicago schools have lost 15,000 students over the last year and yet the school budget went up and no teachers laid off . That tells you the clout that union teachers have in dem cities.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Orville H. Larson

    , @Abolish_public_education
    @That Would Be Telling

    The public union (CTU) schoolteachers will insist that the supervisors be credentialed .. in something or other.

    Once Chicago USD assents to the CTU’s collective bargaining demand, the union will forevermore insist that, while remote work should be available as an option for teachers with seniority, all classrooms must be staffed with unionized supervisors, i.e. assistant babysitters — all of whom will be constantly on their phones.

    It’s beyond ridiculous how the entitled, special interest, school industry tells taxpayers to shut-up and fund remote instruction — at the same price or higher than in-person babysitting.

    In fairness, at least remote institution finally solved the problem of school violence.

  108. Sure, Steve. Whatever you say

  109. In a normal world I would trust the public health officials to tell me the best science they have about the virus and the vaccine, and I would take their prescription and get the shot.
    Of course we are not in a normal world and I have many good reasons to mistrust (and hate) the leaders of our institutions, including Fauci, Big Pharma, and the political elites who now rule us with street violence.
    But in the end I will trust my doctor and get the shot. Why? Because you can’t walk around paranoid about everything. Because there will always be more graphs contradicting all the other graphs and I don’t have time to go get a medical degree and decide for myself. Because trustworthy or not I can’t avoid relying on institutions. Because I chose my doctor, he’s done right by me for years, I trust him, and he said get the shot.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @rebel yell


    But in the end I will trust my doctor and get the shot. Why? Because you can’t walk around paranoid about everything.
     
    Bad advice. Remember, if you walk around "paranoid" about everything, at least you're walking around.

    I, personally, have in my adult life been (in rough chronological order) almost killed by mistaken medical therapy once, badly defrauded twice, and had my life saved once (hip replacement) and bettered once (ocular surgery). That omits dental care, which has saved my life (by preventing progressive deterioration of health due to a major infection) every time I had a root canal. Which happened periodically until I stopped using sugar in drinks.

    One of my family members was almost killed by serotonin re-uptake drugs (later found to be ineffective therapy) after being badly overworked, losing roughly $80,000 directly and much more indirectly, and becoming apathetic. He was OK once he got several months to rest up.

    From the "Win a few, lose a few" department: Physicians aren't perfect, just very good (usually).
    There are about 2.8 million deaths in the US each year. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
    About 0.8 million of these 2.8 million are iatrogenic.
    https://www.ourcivilisation.com/medicine/usamed/deaths.htm
    https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death/


    Physicians are very smart and well trained, so am I, so are you. They necessarily operate on imperfect information and also make mistakes and are sometimes greedy -- they are human, just like you. Trust a bit, but verify a lot -- or die early, up to you.

    Replies: @JackOH, @Jack D

  110. @Anon 2
    OT: The world is starting to tell “Dumb American” jokes

    For example, “Textbooks (1) China, Age 4 ‘Solving Ordinary Differential Equations II’
    (2) USA, Age 4 ‘The Gay B.C.s by M.L. Webb’ (Courtesy of David Zhang on Twitter)

    The United States is increasingly becoming a target of worldwide ridicule because
    of its obsession with LGBT issues, childish level of math education, growing
    squalor of its cities, and most recently, the incompetent handling of the
    pandemic. Britain is becoming the next target of ridicule. Its mishandling
    of Brexit does not help

    Replies: @James O'Meara, @Kyle

    Brexit is not being “mishandled”. It is being handled superbly, just the way the Elite want it.

    https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=22209

  111. @That Would Be Telling
    @Achmed E. Newman


    We must be in a good area, because our hospitals are not near overcrowded as one keeps hearing.
     
    There are definitely "good areas," but for how long? Consistent with what I'm hearing about national trends of bad conditions changing to the coasts, demand for COVID-19 beds in my very local part of flyover country has fallen by about 1/5th, and along with everyone else? we didn't see a post-Thanksgiving surge. So nature and/or human action, we've bent the curve enough we aren't being forced to give substandard care for now.

    But that's still quite a few people so sick with COVID-19 they require hospitalization, and the deaths keep coming. Not done a real analysis, still seems to be Silent Generation and old Boomers weighted, with the occasional younger person, and while I don't know the details, someone in my general area under the age of 10 died. Might be like a teenager who at last count was on a respirator, he had at least one terrible comorbidity.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Jack D

    while I don’t know the details, someone in my general area under the age of 10 died. Might be like a teenager who at last count was on a respirator, he had at least one terrible comorbidity.

    Covid is just not a killer of young people. In my county of around 800,000, where almost 1,000 have died in the pandemic, exactly 1 person under 40 has died of Covid and 0 persons under 30. In the rare cases where a child or a teen dies from the disease, if you read to the bottom of the story the child was already seriously ill – had terminal cancer or cystic fibrosis or something that was going to kill him soon anyway.

    Stories about young people dying from Covid make good press because they tug at your heartstrings – a young person cut down in the prime of life. Perhaps a talented athlete or entertainer. So unfair. The reality is that the average Covid patient is 80 years old and lives in a nursing home – their death just doesn’t sell clicks because people (rightly) figure that such people were already on the exit ramp from this Vale of Tears.

    Now in between the 80 and 90 year olds and the young folks, there is a big group in between – older Boomers, PoCs in their 40s and 50s who perhaps are not as fit and skinny as they should be, etc. Most of these folks, due to modern medicine, usually have a lot more miles in them despite their less than perfect health. But Covid takes quite a few of them out of the race early.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Jack D

    How many people in the entire military have died "of" Covid? 9? And how many of them were older reservists with serious underlying conditions?

  112. Golly gee whillikers thirty more seconds of searching:

    https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/

    Seriously………..

  113. @That Would Be Telling
    @Steve Sailer


    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.
     
    I'm not so sure about that. The CDC's primary flu surveillance depends on a particular set of doctor's offices and clinics doing point of contact tests and reporting the results. Otherwise, flu is not a "reportable" disease unless it kills an infant. Whereas by law all positive COVID-19 tests must be reported to the authorities.

    So I've been assuming a lot of people with lower grades of flu infection have been avoiding doctor's offices, which at most would give you a Tamiflu prescription very limited utility, better to let nature take its course than potentially get exposed to a much more lethal pathogen. Albeit with very different demographics, but they're all, flu and COVID-19, still quite capable of killing the young and middle aged stone cold dead.

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @Kyle

    Hopelessness kills the young and middle-aged in greater numbers and social isolation via lockdowns is killing them faster.

  114. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Dr. X

    Right, Dr. X. Mr. Sailer tells us to "man up", but as this country turns into a Gulag that can be LOCKDOWNed at will, 10 years from now, Americans, if you should even be calling them that then, may wonder why their ancestors didn't man up over the years and fight Totalitarianism. I doubt they'll be able to get ahold of any Solzhenitsyn books by then, but if so, they will wonder why we didn't learn anything from certain parts of that book.

    If you want something to compare the mentality that you well-describe here, just travel by air and look at the TSA bullshit that has been going on for 19 years. That hasn't ended yet. One of those grannies could be THE ONE to try to TERRORIZE us. (I just saw one granny the day before yesterday that could barely lift her arms off the armrests of her wheelchair, so her family had to hold up her arms for the search. #Sickening!)

    Now at the airports, besides those "TSA requires ..." announcements over and over, there are now "CDC guidelines say ..." announcements. Does Mr. Sailer think this will ever just stop because the Kung Flu PanicFest has been curtailed due to "being over and done". Government programs are hardly ever over and done, especially when they involve more control and less freedom for Americans.

    Replies: @Redman, @Joe Stalin

    If you want something to compare the mentality that you well-describe here, just travel by air and look at the TSA bullshit that has been going on for 19 years. That hasn’t ended yet.

    I remember a couple of years back when the Feds were rewriting the flight rules to allow a passenger to once again carry small pocket knives e.g. Swiss Army knives but all the stewardesses whined about the Muzzie terrorists using knives in the 9/11, so the Feds backed off.

    We need to get back to 1960s levels of risk tolerances for this country to come back from the shit-show we’re morphing to.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Joe Stalin


    We need to get back to 1960s levels of risk tolerances for this country to come back from the shit-show we’re morphing to.
     
    Regarding the flying/terrorism scare, one could argue (and you'd be the 2nd to, Joe after me, I'm sure) that if passengers hadn't been disarmed for years and especially on 09/11/01, we wouldn't even have a TSA today or a Department of Motherland Security. We'd have a day to be proud of as Americans who defended themselves easily from some nuts with little box-cutters (if the official story is true - please everyone, don't start - Ron Unz has hundreds of threads about this). Peak Stupidity expounded on this 3 years ago in 16 Years of Spreading Democracy - They still hate us for our freedoms(?)

    In other words, having no TSA and Motherland Security would make us safer, even before we look at the Police State angle that makes life more dangerous in the long run. What about the CDC? I don't have any problem with a small department in the Feral Gov't that gathers stats, but I don't need to hear even recommendations from them. Plenty of non-government people in the field would have advice. If this were a new Black Plague, we'd have seen or heard of people die on our very block and multiple relatives too, and we'd be hunkering down on our own with our beans, bullets, and band-aids.

  115. Somewhat OT, but last night I came across a story on TV about a nursing home in a rural part of Ohio. It must have been in a particularly white part of the state because EVERYONE was white – the elderly patients, even the staff (where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff). Anyway, at the start of the epidemic, the staff realized that the only way that they were going to keep the epidemic of the nursing home was to lock it down, including themselves. If they went home every night they would surely bring it back to the facility. So they all decided to live at the home for the duration (during the summer when the epidemic declined to low levels in their area they were able to go home but now they are back at it). The staff said that all of the people in the home were in effect their grandparents and that they didn’t want to kill their grandparents. So far no one at the home has contracted Covid. Zero cases.

    I don’t get the feeling that the average (black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean) nursing home employee in NY or PA thinks of the residents as being his or her grandparents. If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.

    • Agree: Redman, Travis
    • Thanks: Voltarde
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Jack D


    If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.
     
    • Agree

    Excellent comment. Thank you.

    , @J.Ross
    @Jack D

    Except if that nursing home was under Whitmer or Cuomo.

    , @JohnnyWalker123
    @Jack D


    where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff
     
    I've noticed this too.

    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes? I noticed the first four ethnic groups overrepresented as RNs and CNAs, with Subcons being highly represented as doctors.

    Interestingly, the owners and managers of the facilities are usually native-born Whites. They're sort of the front men.

    If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.
     
    That's a very good point.

    Replies: @epebble, @peterike, @Brutusale

    , @utu
    @Jack D

    Dedicated nursing home staff goes home after 65 days in isolation
    https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/dedicated-nursing-home-staff-goes-home-after-65-days-in-isolation-video.html

    I would think that they were paid more. So it was management/owner decision. With right leadership and some incentive you could do the same with black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean stuff. Perhaps the owners were real Christians. There are many real Christians in places like Newark, Ohio.

    Replies: @prosa123

    , @Bardon Kaldian
    @Jack D


    I don’t get the feeling that the average (black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean) nursing home employee in NY or PA thinks of the residents as being his or her grandparents.
     
    Understatement of the year.
  116. • Replies: @Known Fact
    @Reg Cæsar

    Beethoven indeed! And it's a two-day party because it's not entirely clear if he was born on the 16th or the 17th! Enjoy it now before the cancel culcha gets him (and throw in a little Ferdinand Ries, his talented friend and pupil)

    , @MEH 0910
    @Reg Cæsar

    How Did Beethoven Hear Music?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bA2V0jZMo4


    In this episode I discuss Ludwig Van Beethoven's hearing loss and demonstrate how music may have sounded to his ears and in his mind towards the end of his life.
     
    , @MEH 0910
    @Reg Cæsar

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1338660070121463813

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @Bardon Kaldian
    @Reg Cæsar

    Yeah, sure, but Ludwig got PCoed. His heroic trait, the essential lineament of his temperament, has been diffused & distorted into something akin to the pean of the Brussels bureaucracy.

    Of course I know everything from Eroica & Napoleon to the Ode to Joy, but the author's position is clear- Beethoven, torn between individualist heroism & universalist humanism (a fake dichotomy) had finally chosen the right side.

    Only if he could, he would have probably voted for Sleepy Joe. Most blacks did, anyway.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/15/opinions/celebrating-beethoven-250-birthday-swafford/index.html

    How Beethoven outgrew his hero worship

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    , @Father O'Hara
    @Reg Cæsar

    Hey pal,Black History Month is February!🙄

    , @Menes
    @Reg Cæsar

    Happy birthday homie!



    https://www.apesound.de/out/pictures/generated/product/1/540_340_75/haskil6(1).jpg



    https://www.limelightmagazine.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Black%20Beethoven.jpg

    , @MEH 0910
    @Reg Cæsar

    https://www.onthisday.com/date/1958/december/20


    Famous Birthdays

    Steve Sailer, American political commentator
     
    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51ncurKRoWL._AC_SL1000_.jpg

    Replies: @BB753

  117. Why do the options have to be zero or one? You don’t have to be “anti-vax” if you’re anti-THIS-vax.

    This entire covid thing is suspicious up and down, front and back.

    What else is suspicious? The steady chorus of “Shhhh, just go to sleep. You’re being silly. TOP MEN (and women and PoC) have been working soooo hard on this. The government that hates you and wants you replaced is on your side THIS ONE TIME.”

  118. @Jack D
    Somewhat OT, but last night I came across a story on TV about a nursing home in a rural part of Ohio. It must have been in a particularly white part of the state because EVERYONE was white - the elderly patients, even the staff (where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff). Anyway, at the start of the epidemic, the staff realized that the only way that they were going to keep the epidemic of the nursing home was to lock it down, including themselves. If they went home every night they would surely bring it back to the facility. So they all decided to live at the home for the duration (during the summer when the epidemic declined to low levels in their area they were able to go home but now they are back at it). The staff said that all of the people in the home were in effect their grandparents and that they didn't want to kill their grandparents. So far no one at the home has contracted Covid. Zero cases.

    I don't get the feeling that the average (black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean) nursing home employee in NY or PA thinks of the residents as being his or her grandparents. If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @J.Ross, @JohnnyWalker123, @utu, @Bardon Kaldian

    If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.

    • Agree

    Excellent comment. Thank you.

  119. @Anon

    Like many, I had imagined that “morbidity” meant something like “cause of death,” but it just means “ailment.”
     
    This surprises me. Morbidity is a pretty good super-condensed version of the Wordsum IQ test. The reason why is that smart people tent to read a lot, including the news, and the CDC publishes the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, as it happens, weekly. This tends to produce news that from time to time makes it into the text of various articles, which are sourced from and credited to the MMWR.

    The first time you come across a reference to this publication, a smart person will ask himself, Why the redundant name? Then, They probably know what they're doing, so it must not be redundant ... what does morbidity mean, anyway? Then a trip to the dictionary, or Google, and you have a new word in your pocket.

    Replies: @Bill Jones

    I know a couple of morbid people.
    Neither of them is dead.When they are, they’ll be proved to have been wrong: things could get worse.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Bill Jones


    I know a couple of morbid people.
    Neither of them is dead.When they are, they’ll be proved to have been wrong: things could get worse.
     
    Perhaps they're moribund, and are living the moribundant life.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1955/10/01/the-moribundant-life-or-grow-along-with-whom
  120. @Reg Cæsar
    https://www.bthvn2020.de/fileadmin/user_upload/banner_website.JPG


    https://www.bthvn2020.de/en/



    https://wp-cpr.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2019/06/peanuts_btvn_bust_1951.jpg

    Replies: @Known Fact, @MEH 0910, @MEH 0910, @Bardon Kaldian, @Father O'Hara, @Menes, @MEH 0910

    Beethoven indeed! And it’s a two-day party because it’s not entirely clear if he was born on the 16th or the 17th! Enjoy it now before the cancel culcha gets him (and throw in a little Ferdinand Ries, his talented friend and pupil)

  121. I was talking to my doctor this morning and she can’t wait to be vaccinated but she works in hospitals so she doesn’t have as good a picture of the virus as the skeptics here do. She just sees people getting very sick with some dying of covid. Its not a hoax to her. We both agreed the Moderna vaccine would be preferable if we have a choice but driving home the radio informed me that Pfizer is not going to to ship the 400,000 doses they had promised to Governor DeSantis because of ‘production problems’. New York and California just better have the same delays or Trump may have to seize Pfizer’s facilities and administer a high velocity lead innoculation to Pfizer’s CEO

  122. i won’t be taking any of these RNA vaccines no matter what. this isn’t tuberculosis. this isn’t polio.

    do those people in Australia now test positive for HIV forever?

    some authorities already want the VACCINATED people to continue to wear a mask and stay at home doing nothing. fuck that and fuck them.

    and this virus definitely did not kill 300,000 people here. it is real and it is dangerous. to old people and fat people. old people and fat africans and fat mexicans can sometimes die from it. which is being used to exaggerate how many people died from it so the bad guys can take total control of the country. a 3 to 1 exaggeration factor is realistic.

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    @prime noticer


    some authorities already want the VACCINATED people to continue to wear a mask and stay at home doing nothing. fuck that and fuck them.
     
    Recently vaccinated people often spread disease and should quarantine for about a month.

    I otherwise completely agree with your comment.

  123. I had a distinct bout of something in early March.
    I’m pretty sure I’ve had a tussle with Covid 19 and like most people I have managed to shrug it off.
    Tens of millions of people have survived their encounter with Covid-19. What advice do you have for people who have presumably got some form of immunity? Is there any point in people like me taking a vaccine that has only had perfunctory testing?

  124. Anonymous[290] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jake
    @Dr. X

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people's suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    Replies: @MikeCLT, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR, @Known Fact, @Anonymous, @Magic Dirt Resident, @Richard B

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people’s suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    Great BS. You claim to represent the reader against the bad people, understand everybody’s (including the readers) concealed emotions and motives, reinforce your message with sarcasm and hatred of the intelligent and informed (which you assume the reader shares). Classic template, but maybe a bit too familiar to be effective.

  125. @Buzz Mohawk
    This is a typically well-thought-out essay by Steve Sailer.

    In addition to the usual logic and statistics, Sailer makes use of his marketing knowledge to exhort rocky personalities to "man up and get their vaccine shots." We are predisposed to listen, because we like to "man up" and be manly, and he knows that.

    The alternative argument is that Steve could "man up" and accept that fact that sometimes some things happen that increase an already small death rate to some small multiple of small -- which is still small. He makes persuasive use of death graphs and multiples, but he neglects to mention how small the base is to start with. The fact is, in a country of 330,000,000 people, and in a world of over 7,000,000,000, not very many people will die of COVID-19, no matter what anybody does.

    But sure, we now will have the option of vaccines that have been rushed and approved by a corporate-government-elite oligarchy and are now being pushed on us by them and by Steve Sailer. What matters most, really, is that it remain one's individual choice.

    Will it?

    BTW: No rocky personality worth his crusty salt is afraid of getting stuck by a needle. This one has had more than the usual American share of innoculations, because he got himself a complement of extra ones when he began traveling to Eastern Europe two decades ago, because There Be Dragons There.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @SunBakedSuburb, @Old Prude

    Yeah, Steve’s ‘man up’ is kind of pathetic, especially coming muffled through the closet door like it is.

    Yo, Steve! Utu! Jack! Man up and take off the diaper!

    • Agree: Adam Smith
  126. Covid is a hoax, a psychological operation, a scam.

    It is not dangerous unless you are 80 years old and dying anyway.

    The overall death rate is .2%, about the same as the flu.

    Even for the most vulnerable old people category the death rate is still only 4%.

    Covid poses zero risk for young people.

    The total number of deaths has not increased, while the death rates for heart attacks, flu, etc., have disappeared, indicating that dying with Covid has replaced a long list of normal causes of death.

    In other words, they are LYING on the death certificates because hospitals are getting paid for every covid diagnosis.

    At this point I believe the whole thing was planned and deliberate….used to get rid of Trump, push mail in ballots to enable fraud, etc.

    Also the virus has been used to rob people of their liberty.

    God knows what kind of dangers lurk in an untested vaccine.

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    @Robert Dolan

    • Agree: Adam Smith


    At this point I believe the whole thing was planned and deliberate….used to get rid of Trump, push mail in ballots to enable fraud, etc.
     
    It was also used as a cover for the planned reset of the already imploding economy.

    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Robert Dolan

    The Pandemic was not planned, but the Deep state , the media and the democratic leaders realized they could use it to their advantage to defeat Trump.

    The democrats quickly realized they could use this pandemic to implement mail-in voting across the nation which would make it easier to defeat Trump in November, so the governors kept the lockdowns going thru the summer , months after the curve was flattened. They kept the panic going to increase the size of our government , increase their power and destroy millions of small business owners.

    The lockdowns and mask wearing mandates did nothing to stop the spread of Coronavirus. these new vaccines may save the lives of 150,000 Americans over the next year as they help us get to herd immunity faster. The Hoax is the lies about the benefits of lockdowns and masks and continued exaggerations of deaths and risks to the average American. Half the people who died from COVID would have passed away within 12 months. It was immoral to shut down the schools and small businesses in a failed effort to stop the spread of a virus with a fatality rate of .2% for those not living in a nursing home.

  127. “Americans, therefore, need to man up and get their vaccine shots.”

    This, and the efforts of the authorities to persuade coveted groups (read Blacks) to get the vaccine are precisely the wrong strategy to get Americans to voluntarily take the jab. After all, even the most self proclaimed altruistic liberal/statist among us is still an American with the expectation that he will get what he wants when he wants it. The trick would be to make the vaccine appear like a scarce commodity, which of course it is, so that Americans will move heaven and earth to get it. The extra bonus would be that if there do turn out to be unexpected complications then the authorities can remind the recipients that they volunteered to take it without pressure from the government or anyone else. Remember H1N1 Flu? At that time, flu vaccine was like gold and Americans were trying to use every connection, no matter how tenuous to get it for their families.

  128. No more deaths, no more lockdowns, no more masks. It will be over.

    Is that true though? Fauci et al are saying that taking the vaccine does not exempt you from social distancing and masking.

    I’m 26 and healthy. I’ll take my chances by just washing my hands and taking zinc.

  129. Great Scot, Steve, get a hold of yourself.

    These displays of cowardice are unmanly.

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    @roo_ster

    https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/1339175256616038400

    https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1339189323694964737

  130. OT – no sooner do China get discovered doing naughties with the world wide mobile system

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/15/revealed-china-suspected-of-spying-on-americans-via-caribbean-phone-networks

    Than Israel is doing it too!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/16/israeli-spy-firm-suspected-accessing-global-telecoms-channel-islands

    The Israeli private intelligence company Rayzone Group appears to have had access to the global telecommunications network via a mobile operator in the Channel Islands in the first half of 2018, potentially enabling its clients at that time to track the locations of mobile phones across the world.

    Invoices seen by the Guardian and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism suggest Rayzone, a corporate spy agency that provides its government clients with “geolocation tools”, used an intermediary in 2018 to lease an access point into the telecoms network via Sure Guernsey, a mobile operator in the Channel Islands.

    Such access points, known in the telecoms industry as “global titles”, provide a route into a decades-old global messaging system known as SS7, which allows mobile operators to connect users around the world. It is not uncommon for mobile companies to lease out such access.

    However, doing so potentially allows third parties to exploit signalling messages – commands that are sent through a telecoms operator across the global network, unbeknownst to a mobile phone user. Used legitimately, such commands allow operators and others with access to the network to locate mobile phones, connect mobile phone users to one another, and assess roaming charges.

    But entities with access to mobile phone networks are also known to use signalling messages for questionable purposes, such as monitoring locations for the purpose of surveillance or even intercepting communications.

    So that’s how my mobile provider knows how to contact me with a helpful message about roaming charges whenever I cross or get close to a border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/19/ss7-hack-explained-mobile-phone-vulnerability-snooping-texts-calls

    https://blog.securegroup.com/phone-hacking-through-ss7-is-frighteningly-easy-and-effective

  131. @Jake
    @Dr. X

    Steve the naive Nerd is showing in this. He has been frightened and wants to believe that Big Pharma and Big Tech and Big Government are all basically honest and concerned with people's suffering and quite competent at things other than gouging for profits and power.

    Replies: @MikeCLT, @Johnny Smoggins, @AndrewR, @Known Fact, @Anonymous, @Magic Dirt Resident, @Richard B

    Maybe once we all get our vaccines Steve will finally cover the statistical anomalies from the election.

    • LOL: J.Ross, BB753
  132. @Anonymous

    It’s important to note that COVID is a crisis of moderate magnitude, neither “Just the flu, bro”
     
    What is your argument for that?

    Replies: @epebble

    I lived in San Diego area for 15 years. This has never happened before. This is happening in many places, especially in the interior of the country and rural areas with smaller facilities. This can increase death rates for patients without Covid too.

    Ambulances turned away as hospital emergency rooms overwhelmed

    County hospital association reaches out to state for staffing help

    By PAUL SISSON DEC. 15, 2020 11:14 AM

    Severe impacts on local emergency departments have forced paramedics to wait for hours before they can deliver their patients, prompting unprecedented changes to San Diego County ambulance bypass procedures Tuesday.

    The change came as intensive care capacity across the state continued to dwindle, prompting local hospitals to reach out to Sacramento for staffing help even as the first batches of vaccine began to arrive

    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-12-15/governor-says-covid-19-deaths-have-activated-a-grim-supply-chain

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @epebble

    It happens every year. Search 2018 flu hospitals overrun.

    And staffing is a manmade issue as their holding out non symptomatic positive tested staff. Something they don’t do for the flu or any other diseases.

  133. anon[137] • Disclaimer says:

    In order to ‘just be done with it’ we don’t have to do anything that isn’t already teed up. There are almost 17 million reported cases in the US and several times as many actual cases. As many as 100 million, based on CDC estimates of the ratio of reported to actual cases. And we are going still reporting 200,000 cases a day, which means around another million/day are being infected. North Dakota has officially tested cumulative rate of over 10% of the population. Which is getting close to herd immunity, using a factor of 5 to account for untested infections.

    Meanwhile the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are gearing up to vaccinate another million/day. Demand for vaccines is through the roof, and there is a battle between the over 65’s and ‘essential’ workers for the next 50 million or so vaccines.

    It doesn’t matter that much who gets the first vaccines, as long as they are distributed as rapidly as they are available. So the current surge will end sooner rather than later. And the whole thing will be effectively over well before the first 100 million Americans are vaccinated.

    So American’s can’t really botch this. It’s a numbers thing, and people can think or do more or less whatever they want. People will be contributing to herd immunity either by vaccinating or catching it naturally — no one gets a free pass.

  134. Herd immunity is likely to require more than 60 percent and perhaps as many as 80 percent of Americans to be either infected or vaccinated. In hard-hit Manaus in the Amazon, an estimated 76 percent of residents have been infected.

    With the current third wave, we’ll no doubt reach, say, 25 percent infected by midwinter. But the good news is that if another 50 percent or so of the population get inoculated rather than infected, then COVID will be gone.

    Some of the relevant numbers here are not well established, or fully precise, including rate for herd immunity, percentage infected, and rate of reduction in transmission from the vaccinated.

    But the relationship is pretty simple.

    nonInfectious = infected + naive * vaccinated * suppressionRate

    Here, the “nonInfectious” is the overall percentage of those in the population who won’t transmit the disease, “infected” is the percentage already infected, “naive” is the percentage of the population which has not been infected (i.e. 1-infected), “vaccinated” is the percentage of the naive who get vaccination, and “suppressionRate” the percentage of the vaccinated who cannot transmit the disease.

    Then we’ve reached herd immunity when

    nonInfectious = herdImmunityRate (with obvious meaning)

    We want to know: what’s the required vaccination rate to reach herd immunity?

    Solving for vaccinated, we get

    vaccinated = (herdImmunityRate-infected)/(naive * suppressionRate)

    This formula is easy to set up in excel, etc. Again, one can substitute (1 – infected) for naive.

    As we get a clearer picture of the relevant rates, it should be easy to predict what vaccination rates we need, at least at a very crude level.

    For example, if the herd immunity rate is 75%, the infected 25%, and the suppression of transmission is 90%, then the required vaccination rate is 74%.

    It’s probably worth noting, though, that rate required for herd immunity is likely a moving object, not just because of measures that might be taken, but also because of weather. The third surge seems very good evidence of the major impact of weather.

    • Agree: res
    • Replies: @MGB
    @candid_observer

    I don't think you can use simple vaccination rates. You'd have to decide who gets vaccinated.

    , @unit472
    @candid_observer

    Herd immunity is a wonderful objective but is there any evidence it even exists? Was small pox overcome because of 'herd immunity? The 'Black Death ,or did survivors become so few and far between that those viruses just ran out of new hosts... until the next outbreak?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    , @Steve Sailer
    @candid_observer

    "For example, if the herd immunity rate is 75%, the infected 25%, and the suppression of transmission is 90%, then the required vaccination rate is 74%."

    Does this assume the already infected get vaccinated at the same rate as the uninfected?

    Replies: @candid_observer

  135. @candid_observer

    Herd immunity is likely to require more than 60 percent and perhaps as many as 80 percent of Americans to be either infected or vaccinated. In hard-hit Manaus in the Amazon, an estimated 76 percent of residents have been infected.

    ...

    With the current third wave, we’ll no doubt reach, say, 25 percent infected by midwinter. But the good news is that if another 50 percent or so of the population get inoculated rather than infected, then COVID will be gone.
     

    Some of the relevant numbers here are not well established, or fully precise, including rate for herd immunity, percentage infected, and rate of reduction in transmission from the vaccinated.

    But the relationship is pretty simple.

    nonInfectious = infected + naive * vaccinated * suppressionRate

    Here, the "nonInfectious" is the overall percentage of those in the population who won't transmit the disease, "infected" is the percentage already infected, "naive" is the percentage of the population which has not been infected (i.e. 1-infected), "vaccinated" is the percentage of the naive who get vaccination, and "suppressionRate" the percentage of the vaccinated who cannot transmit the disease.

    Then we've reached herd immunity when

    nonInfectious = herdImmunityRate (with obvious meaning)

    We want to know: what's the required vaccination rate to reach herd immunity?

    Solving for vaccinated, we get

    vaccinated = (herdImmunityRate-infected)/(naive * suppressionRate)

    This formula is easy to set up in excel, etc. Again, one can substitute (1 - infected) for naive.

    As we get a clearer picture of the relevant rates, it should be easy to predict what vaccination rates we need, at least at a very crude level.

    For example, if the herd immunity rate is 75%, the infected 25%, and the suppression of transmission is 90%, then the required vaccination rate is 74%.

    It's probably worth noting, though, that rate required for herd immunity is likely a moving object, not just because of measures that might be taken, but also because of weather. The third surge seems very good evidence of the major impact of weather.

    Replies: @MGB, @unit472, @Steve Sailer

    I don’t think you can use simple vaccination rates. You’d have to decide who gets vaccinated.

  136. @Steve Sailer
    @Jake

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @TomSchmidt, @DCThrowback, @Mr. Anon, @res, @ferd

    I tend to think you are right, but am curious about That Would Be Telling’s response.

    For those who don’t see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 – 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 – 3. Countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID-19 (lockdowns, masks, etc.) are likely to reduce the effective R of the flu below 1 at which point it stops spreading freely (there might still be occasional cases).

    It is also worth looking at the CDC flu tracker data from March-April.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @res


    am curious about That Would Be Telling’s response.

    For those who don’t see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 – 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 – 3. Countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID-19 (lockdowns, masks, etc.) are likely to reduce the effective R of the flu below 1 at which point it stops spreading freely
     
    My response TL;DR is that we might have no good idea of how much flu is out there and transmitting, unless the CDC is taking effective measures to adjust to how their flu surveillance system works due to the way things are now (I know, I know, probably not much hope there, especially when COVID-19 is much more important and requires a lot of the same unfashionable public health skill sets).

    Using Wikipedia, there's a wide range of flu Ro guesses for various strains, 1918 pandemic 1.4-2.8, 2009 pandemic 1.4-1.6, which is likely the most accurate, and 0.9-2.1 for seasonal variations, and and you expect wide range there, season to season. Actually, that latter number is very possibly technically bogus, since Ro is for a totally naive population, which you only get, and only maybe in part, when you have flu antigenic shifts so big you get a pandemic. For examplem we wonder if the demographics of 1918-9 serious and lethal cases was influenced by a previous H1N1 strain older folks got. A true Ro is still probably useful when the CDC's and other's best infected case guesses are 8-10 times those of RT-PCR confirmed cases, that still leaves 200+ million naive to COVID-19.

    Countermeasures I'm just not following "scientifically," since mine is 99.999% isolation so far since mid-February, which not many are able to do, let alone is not a tremendous change in my lifestyle (that said, not being able to go out per my strategy is very different from generally not wanting to out of my small home and small lot). And I get the impression would take some mighty statistical feats to extract anything resembling proof about countermeasures, including which countermeasures, which includes what people do without needing to be told or ordered, and results in cases, severe cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, which I suppose are our basic metrics of effectiveness. Many confounding factors, including our medical community learning how to better treat COVID-19 from lessons written in blood.

    All of this is still worth looking into, and maybe someone will be able to produce some good flu incidence data sets for the 2020-2021 Northern Hemisphere season. And the Southern Hemisphere public health community should be less confused to the extend they can get a lot of people vaccinated before their normal flu and looks like COVID-19 winter season hits. Oh, yeah, that's another reason for Australia to put themselves at the back of the bus for vaccinations after they tossed their home grown effort because it produces false positives for HIV antibody tests, it's officially summer there in 5 days.
    , @utu
    @res

    The R0 for NYC could be 5 or even higher and for rural Iowa it can be only 1.5. The R0 here is for the population that consciously or subconsciously does not apply any social distancing countermeasures and goes about life as normal as before the news of the epidemic. The curves of growth that were observed implied lower than 5 R0 because the countermeasure even if not official were already lowering R0 in the very beginning of the epidemic once the news about the epidemic reached the people. For example people stopped going to Chinatown before there were any cases even despite that they were guilt tripped for it.

    The herd immunity threshold will be lower if we maintain some countermeasures so we can stop the epidemic while vaccinating before we go to normal life. I suspect that once vaccination begins some people will think that they can go back to normal and this will increase the infection rate. People should be told that our first goal in the next year is to stop the epidemic while going back to normal will come later.

    , @Polynikes
    @res

    Masks don’t prevent the flu. Decades of research back that up.

    And lockdowns didn’t drop the spread of covid. If anything the opposite since the main mode of transmission is in the home.

    But other than that I believe the CDC propaganda.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @res


    For those who don’t see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 – 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 – 3.
     
    Res -- Serious questions if you or anybody knows the answers:

    1. How does the CDC actually know the R0 of covid (or anything else for that mater)? Do they just guess how many people had it at T = 0; and then guess again how many people had it at T= 0 + x; and then guess a third time at how long it takes between infections; and then extrapolate an R0 guess from all those guesses?

    2. What is Covid's R0 in time? To project the rate of future infections doesn't R0 need to have a time component -- i.e., the amount of time that it takes for each new infection to generate the projected 1.8, 2.5, or whatever number of additional infections. Otherwise, it's like asking how fast your money will grow at 180% compound interest, without specifying whether the interest rate is per day, per week, or per year. The most useful metric would be the expected doubling time for covid infections in a population. Has anyone ever calculated this supposed doubling time for covid? If so, what is it?

    3. Why won't we quantify the costs and benefits of proposed interventions on R0? You'd think we'd be able to arbitrarily define a measuring unit. Such as one "social transmission opportunity equivalent (STOE)" or the like, that equated to, say, the odds of infection to an average health American from being in an enclosed room with an infected person for 30 minutes. We could then figure out how much eliminating one of these units is worth statistically in terms of reducing expected infections over time (per #1 and #2, above). And then we could estimate how many of these units are avoided by any particular proposed intervention, such as requiring masks, shutting down indoor dining, outdoor dining, bars, church services, sports, etc.

    All this stuff seems elemental. But our "experts" seem instead to be running around like the proverbial chickens with no heads.

    Replies: @utu

    , @danand
    @res

    "...the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 – 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 – 3."

    Res, I have not read this entire thread, so this may be repetitious. That Ro figure of 3.0, I would have to guess, is a “peak” value, not a long term average. At that level of spread; every infected person spreading the virus to 3 others every half month, nearly every region in the “open” world would have achieved Covid-19 herd immunity by this point.

    I was a bit encouraged when the Ro in the San Francisco bay area dropped to .8 over the summer. Things were looking up. If that .8 would have held, we may have well felt on our way out of this, back to normal.

    What occurred instead was that Ro here jumped over 1 in November, and is currently at ~1.27. The recent daily peak, last week, was ~1.32, so perhaps the “Thanksgiving surge” has past?

    Covid-19 sufferer boards United flight with his family, and dies Monday:

    https://onemileatatime.com/passenger-coronavirus-dies-united-flight/

  137. @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling


    while I don’t know the details, someone in my general area under the age of 10 died. Might be like a teenager who at last count was on a respirator, he had at least one terrible comorbidity.
     
    Covid is just not a killer of young people. In my county of around 800,000, where almost 1,000 have died in the pandemic, exactly 1 person under 40 has died of Covid and 0 persons under 30. In the rare cases where a child or a teen dies from the disease, if you read to the bottom of the story the child was already seriously ill - had terminal cancer or cystic fibrosis or something that was going to kill him soon anyway.

    Stories about young people dying from Covid make good press because they tug at your heartstrings - a young person cut down in the prime of life. Perhaps a talented athlete or entertainer. So unfair. The reality is that the average Covid patient is 80 years old and lives in a nursing home - their death just doesn't sell clicks because people (rightly) figure that such people were already on the exit ramp from this Vale of Tears.

    Now in between the 80 and 90 year olds and the young folks, there is a big group in between - older Boomers, PoCs in their 40s and 50s who perhaps are not as fit and skinny as they should be, etc. Most of these folks, due to modern medicine, usually have a lot more miles in them despite their less than perfect health. But Covid takes quite a few of them out of the race early.

    Replies: @JimDandy

    How many people in the entire military have died “of” Covid? 9? And how many of them were older reservists with serious underlying conditions?

  138. anonymous[255] • Disclaimer says:

    Since I had Covid in late November, do I need to worry about getting vaccinated? For me, it was a mild cold, so no big deal. (I did test positive and lost taste for a day or two, so I know that I had Covid.) I subsequently tested negative. If I were to get it again in a few months, is there any way it would be worse than the first time? It seems reasonable to assume it would be less severe the second time. I got it from my significant other, so as far as viral load goes, I assume I got the maximum!

    I will say that if I don’t have to wear a mask anymore, that would be worth getting vaccinated. I’m not scared of the vaccine, but right now I don’t see a reason to get it.

  139. Herd immunity is likely to require more than 60 percent and perhaps as many as 80 percent of Americans to be either infected or vaccinated. In hard-hit Manaus in the Amazon, an estimated 76 percent of residents have been infected.

    candid_observer covered much of this nicely above, but one point I would like to add. It is possible for the overall infection rate to overshoot the herd immunity threshold. Hopefully thinking about how the time lags involved work makes clear why this is so. For more on the topic of overshoot, search my comments for “overshoot”.

    TLDR: don’t assume the herd immunity threshold is the highest infection rate observed.

  140. @res
    @Steve Sailer

    I tend to think you are right, but am curious about That Would Be Telling's response.

    For those who don't see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 - 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 - 3. Countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID-19 (lockdowns, masks, etc.) are likely to reduce the effective R of the flu below 1 at which point it stops spreading freely (there might still be occasional cases).

    It is also worth looking at the CDC flu tracker data from March-April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @utu, @Polynikes, @Hypnotoad666, @danand

    am curious about That Would Be Telling’s response.

    For those who don’t see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 – 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 – 3. Countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID-19 (lockdowns, masks, etc.) are likely to reduce the effective R of the flu below 1 at which point it stops spreading freely

    My response TL;DR is that we might have no good idea of how much flu is out there and transmitting, unless the CDC is taking effective measures to adjust to how their flu surveillance system works due to the way things are now (I know, I know, probably not much hope there, especially when COVID-19 is much more important and requires a lot of the same unfashionable public health skill sets).

    Using Wikipedia, there’s a wide range of flu Ro guesses for various strains, 1918 pandemic 1.4-2.8, 2009 pandemic 1.4-1.6, which is likely the most accurate, and 0.9-2.1 for seasonal variations, and and you expect wide range there, season to season. Actually, that latter number is very possibly technically bogus, since Ro is for a totally naive population, which you only get, and only maybe in part, when you have flu antigenic shifts so big you get a pandemic. For examplem we wonder if the demographics of 1918-9 serious and lethal cases was influenced by a previous H1N1 strain older folks got. A true Ro is still probably useful when the CDC’s and other’s best infected case guesses are 8-10 times those of RT-PCR confirmed cases, that still leaves 200+ million naive to COVID-19.

    Countermeasures I’m just not following “scientifically,” since mine is 99.999% isolation so far since mid-February, which not many are able to do, let alone is not a tremendous change in my lifestyle (that said, not being able to go out per my strategy is very different from generally not wanting to out of my small home and small lot). And I get the impression would take some mighty statistical feats to extract anything resembling proof about countermeasures, including which countermeasures, which includes what people do without needing to be told or ordered, and results in cases, severe cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, which I suppose are our basic metrics of effectiveness. Many confounding factors, including our medical community learning how to better treat COVID-19 from lessons written in blood.

    All of this is still worth looking into, and maybe someone will be able to produce some good flu incidence data sets for the 2020-2021 Northern Hemisphere season. And the Southern Hemisphere public health community should be less confused to the extend they can get a lot of people vaccinated before their normal flu and looks like COVID-19 winter season hits. Oh, yeah, that’s another reason for Australia to put themselves at the back of the bus for vaccinations after they tossed their home grown effort because it produces false positives for HIV antibody tests, it’s officially summer there in 5 days.

  141. • LOL: Patrick in SC
    • Replies: @Patrick in SC
    @Reg Cæsar


    “Now more than ever it is crucial for every American to have access to the resources to make their voices heard during an election, whether that be on a national scale, or in their local races.
     
    "Access to resources"? Such as?

    Answer: Ballots.

    Whether they live in Macon, GA, or Brooklyn, NY. Or whether they've already voted. Or whether they're alive or deceased.
  142. The greatest gift of the CoronaHoax is we can now identify cowardly imbeciles on-sight by their facediapers™. My philosophy early on in the CoronaHoax was “no grudges, no scorekeeping.” No more. Now when any diaperface speaks to me, I tell them shut up, diaperface, or just give them the finger. So far no one has retaliated – because anyone in a facediaper is a brainless wimp.

    Oh, and CDC data show that total deaths were average or below average for all of 2020, barring a last-minute slaughter of some sort. Verdict: hoax.

  143. @Achmed E. Newman
    Steve, you've got a very comprehensive column there. I will write more about the numbers especially as related to the baseline curve, as seen in your previous post, that to me does not seem to keep up with a rapidly aging American population (went up by 1.2 years average age from '18 to '19 and 34% more over 65 Americans in one decade). Yes, I know, your point on the excess deaths of various age groups seems to preclude that being a confounding factor, but something seems wrong at first glance on the 4th graph (raw excess deaths by age group). Are those your own graphs, Steve? You wrote "reliable analyst".

    I'll get back to that, but let me say this about your column:

    a) This was well organized with good graphs, but I still want to get more into the data now. One of your links just went to a google page with a spreadsheet. Where is that data from?

    b) Your one paragraph about your cancer and people's questions about your (lack of) smoking was better, IMO, than the way you've put it before. Instead of saying they tried to blame you for smoking, you worded it just about the way I would have put it. Except, I doubt people felt you "deserved" to die. They would have felt "ahaa, well that was your problem. You shouldn't have smoked. I'll be fine." if you'd told them you were a smoker. You're right that people want to feel that they are not vulnerable.

    c) That said, I guess I'm one with that invulnerable feeling. I've been exposed to this thing from traveling all around during all phases of this, being close to all kinds of people well before most people were wearing masks. I don't seem to get any kinds of respiratory things, so maybe that's why I feel confident this bug has probably already gone through me a few times. Then again, a well-over 60 y/o friend who has gotten pneumonia more than once before does not wear a mask, almost period, must be pretty invulnerable, as he's been ignoring the whole thing action-wise - talks to customers at normal distance, nobody wears masks, et.

    d) We must be in a good area, because our hospitals are not near overcrowded as one keeps hearing. My family member in healthcare said the COVID floor is 10% of the hospital, and they would bring the patients elsewhere if they had to. One patient was on her floor for a few days, turns out with the COVID (missing one symptom, a fever, so some slack-ass doc missed it). Every one of the staff is fine so far, and they hadn't been wearing anything special due to lack of knowledge about this.

    e) I'll go with ID (infectious disease) doctor's opinion, who told my doc friend that, just like the common cold, everyone is going to be in contact with these germs at some point. As for your herd immunity numbers, even that WSJ article you linked to admits that with most of us not getting tested and people with no symptoms, there are likely many more people who've gotten the virus in their systems than reported, so it's a CDC "modeling estimate". OK...

    f) Let those who are vulnerable, or feel vulnerable, take that vaccine. I got a flu shot per healthcare family member's request, but even she is against taking the COVID vaccine. I'm not sure completely why.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @gent

    The severity of COVID-19 seems directly proportional to how strong the control the DNC has over the area.

  144. @Jack D
    Somewhat OT, but last night I came across a story on TV about a nursing home in a rural part of Ohio. It must have been in a particularly white part of the state because EVERYONE was white - the elderly patients, even the staff (where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff). Anyway, at the start of the epidemic, the staff realized that the only way that they were going to keep the epidemic of the nursing home was to lock it down, including themselves. If they went home every night they would surely bring it back to the facility. So they all decided to live at the home for the duration (during the summer when the epidemic declined to low levels in their area they were able to go home but now they are back at it). The staff said that all of the people in the home were in effect their grandparents and that they didn't want to kill their grandparents. So far no one at the home has contracted Covid. Zero cases.

    I don't get the feeling that the average (black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean) nursing home employee in NY or PA thinks of the residents as being his or her grandparents. If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @J.Ross, @JohnnyWalker123, @utu, @Bardon Kaldian

    Except if that nursing home was under Whitmer or Cuomo.

    • LOL: AnotherDad
  145. @Jake
    It is always a very good thing to trust whatever Bill Gates hawks. The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers, @U. Ranus, @Paul Jolliffe, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden

    The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.

    As the saying goes: “The problem with self-made men is that they tend to worship their creator.”

    Actually, these guys have a lot of intelligence and ability. But they suffer from the common delusion that “if I am a genius in field A, then I must be a genius in all other fields as well.”

    It’s like the nuclear scientists who were the smartest men on earth when it came to physics, but whose ideas on geopolitics and economics was a lot of rainbows and unicorns nonsense about having a benevolent one-world dictatorship of experts who would hold nuclear weapons in trust and use technocratic solutions to fix all the world’s problems.

    • Replies: @36 ulster
    @Hypnotoad666

    As described by Michael Rennie in The Day the Earth Stood Still, though one-UNIVERSE dictatorship might be more appropriate.

  146. Only soyboys terrified of the sniffles, shuffling about safespaced behind their facediapers™ are afraid of needles, Sailer. Men are not.

    I didn’t bother reading the article. Let me guess: Sailer defines ‘back to normal’ as facediapers™ forever and assburger-distancing forever. Imbecile. Nearly 10 months into this hoax and I’ve never worn a cuck muzzle – I don’t even own one. I’ll bet that really infuriates Sailer, Unz, and the other bedwetters round here.

  147. @That Would Be Telling
    @Buffalo Joe


    Berkeley City Teachers are in line to be among the first recipients of the new vaccine, but they can not be forced to take the vaccine and can’t be terminated for not being vacinated. So while a solution to hybrid classes is in the offing, in other words, teachers can return to classes, they won’t.
     
    "Chicago Schools Hiring People to Supervise Kids in Class While Teachers Work Remotely"

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Abolish_public_education

    That Would….., Chicago schools have lost 15,000 students over the last year and yet the school budget went up and no teachers laid off . That tells you the clout that union teachers have in dem cities.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Buffalo Joe

    While tens of millions were slashed from the police budget. Even though Larry Lightfoot said she opposed defunding the police.

    , @Orville H. Larson
    @Buffalo Joe

    " . . . That tells you the clout that union teachers have in dem cities."

    Ah, yes, the teachers unions, those bastions of sloth and incompetence. They're an integral part of the public (mis)education system. The adults in the system--teachers, school superintendents, paper-shuffling bureaucrats et al.--get theirs, while the kids get dumber and dumber. . . .

  148. @Guy De Champlagne
    We should want life to go back to the way it was before, and the faster the better.

    We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. The countries that were hardest hit by SARS are the countries that were the best prepared for COVID because they did just that. It would be a huge mistake and a great tragedy to just go back to normal, learn absolutely nothing, and comfort ourselves with a bunch of just-so stories about how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography.

    Replies: @Jake, @ken, @Pop Warner, @Prester John, @Polynikes, @Rob

    “We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. ”

    Our first opportunity was after the anthrax scare which followed 9/11. I recall hearing several scientists ring the alarm bells, saying that the time had arrived for this country to gear up in the event of a real bio-emergency i.e. a full-blown attack or a pandemic). Three administrations slept through 20 years without doing anything.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Prester John


    “We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. ”

    Our first opportunity was after the anthrax scare which followed 9/11. I recall hearing several scientists ring the alarm bells, saying that the time had arrived for this country to gear up in the event of a real bio-emergency i.e. a full-blown attack or a pandemic). Three administrations slept through 20 years without doing anything.
     
    Do you really believe that?? Certainly not enough, and against the near total opposition of today's public health establishment which holds infectious disease control in disdain, focusing on banning Big Gulps and guns, "lifestyle" issues.

    I suppose you missed, just off the top of my head: rebuilding a smallpox vaccine inventory, building up stocks of supplies for future pandemics (not managed well, and a lot not rebuild by Obama after the 2009 flu pandemic), research into SARS type coronaviruses that among other things dealt with antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), so Moderna literally was able to create their vaccine candidate over a weekend after the sequences were first published out of the PRC, and how about the flu pandemic plan? Which formed the basis of a lot of our COVID-19 response.
  149. @Hannah Katz
    @Dr. X

    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter. F Fauci.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Barnard, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Travis

    “I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter. F Fauci.”

    Yes, until flu season begins again and cases rise again – OH NO IT’S OUR FIFTH WAVE so we must diaper and lickdown and assburger-distance again!!! – ad infinitum.

    This hoax ends when men find their brains and their balls and put a stop to the womanly hysteria. Judging by all the fagboys in facediapers™ around my hood, I have little hope.

  150. @Buffalo Joe
    @That Would Be Telling

    That Would....., Chicago schools have lost 15,000 students over the last year and yet the school budget went up and no teachers laid off . That tells you the clout that union teachers have in dem cities.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Orville H. Larson

    While tens of millions were slashed from the police budget. Even though Larry Lightfoot said she opposed defunding the police.

  151. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    I hope you’re wrong, but I fear you might be right.

    • Replies: @wren
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Here's something OT for you and Steve:

    https://www.twitter.com/diana_west_/status/1339277102982569985

    If the Georgia Bureau of Investigations guy investigating the mysterious crash (which looked like Michael Hasting's crash?) really committed suicide on Monday, there is something odd going on.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

  152. @candid_observer

    Herd immunity is likely to require more than 60 percent and perhaps as many as 80 percent of Americans to be either infected or vaccinated. In hard-hit Manaus in the Amazon, an estimated 76 percent of residents have been infected.

    ...

    With the current third wave, we’ll no doubt reach, say, 25 percent infected by midwinter. But the good news is that if another 50 percent or so of the population get inoculated rather than infected, then COVID will be gone.
     

    Some of the relevant numbers here are not well established, or fully precise, including rate for herd immunity, percentage infected, and rate of reduction in transmission from the vaccinated.

    But the relationship is pretty simple.

    nonInfectious = infected + naive * vaccinated * suppressionRate

    Here, the "nonInfectious" is the overall percentage of those in the population who won't transmit the disease, "infected" is the percentage already infected, "naive" is the percentage of the population which has not been infected (i.e. 1-infected), "vaccinated" is the percentage of the naive who get vaccination, and "suppressionRate" the percentage of the vaccinated who cannot transmit the disease.

    Then we've reached herd immunity when

    nonInfectious = herdImmunityRate (with obvious meaning)

    We want to know: what's the required vaccination rate to reach herd immunity?

    Solving for vaccinated, we get

    vaccinated = (herdImmunityRate-infected)/(naive * suppressionRate)

    This formula is easy to set up in excel, etc. Again, one can substitute (1 - infected) for naive.

    As we get a clearer picture of the relevant rates, it should be easy to predict what vaccination rates we need, at least at a very crude level.

    For example, if the herd immunity rate is 75%, the infected 25%, and the suppression of transmission is 90%, then the required vaccination rate is 74%.

    It's probably worth noting, though, that rate required for herd immunity is likely a moving object, not just because of measures that might be taken, but also because of weather. The third surge seems very good evidence of the major impact of weather.

    Replies: @MGB, @unit472, @Steve Sailer

    Herd immunity is a wonderful objective but is there any evidence it even exists? Was small pox overcome because of ‘herd immunity? The ‘Black Death ,or did survivors become so few and far between that those viruses just ran out of new hosts… until the next outbreak?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @unit472


    Herd immunity is a wonderful objective but is there any evidence it even exists? Was small pox overcome because of ‘herd immunity? The ‘Black Death ,or did survivors become so few and far between that those viruses just ran out of new hosts… until the next outbreak?
     
    Herd immunity only makes sense in the context of what herd you're talking about. Smallpox was effectively eradicated from the US long before it was from the entire earth, and that's because imported smallpox cases hit a wall of immune hosts, although I would not be surprise to learn there was some transmission. The last known cases of smallpox are illuminating, in 1978 a not understood lab release in the U.K. infected a photographer who used a darkroom below that lab, despite a 1966 inoculation she got it and died. Her mother contracted "a very minor" case, no known other cases, but we might assume some people got exposed throughout the process and were fully protected by the vaccinations.

    The Black Death is caused by a bacteria, initial route is from rodent reservoirs (don't get too friendly with them in the western US, where the last plague pandemic ended up due to, as usual, it coming from mainland China), normally with an anthropoid vector like fleas. But that bubonic plague can then get into the blood, and at worst case for public health, the lungs, upon which it can spread like wildfire. I'm pretty sure not enough people ever got it that herd immunity would ever become a factor.

    Measles would be a good virus to study, much, much more transmissible than most anything else we vaccinate against, with the anti-vaxxers, certain special populations, and foreign sources breaking down the herd immunity that was achieved at great effort.

    So for COVID-19 today, at most you should shoot for herd immunity in particular nations, particularly important for a country like the US that this side of the counter-revolution has almost totally open borders, there will always been immigrants and visitors bringing it back here. By and large I wouldn't spend much time thinking about it today, after enough people get these new vaccines under FDA Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) the attitudes towards them might change, and it'll be some months before everyone who wants them today can get them. As it is, COVID-19 instantly became part of our cold civil war, is now to the point an insane tribal and political thing, and a great fraction of the Right is proving the Left was right about them, claiming a right to infect others as they please.

    Replies: @danand, @anon

  153. @TomSchmidt
    @That Would Be Telling

    You’re somehow thinking a “natural,” uncontrolled infection is axiomatically better than a controlled simulation of one??

    What is the rate of serious harm in the young from COVID? By contrast, you might want to consider this:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle

    I think you might make the case that for older, sicker, fatter people the risks of MRNA vaccines are outweighed by the benefits. For people under 20?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @AnotherDad

    Tom, you’ve got your choice:

    a) The Xi-special from the Wuhan Institute of Virology
    –full on reproducing bug, that makes your cells reproduce itself–the full virus–and if not stopped can infect/kill ever freaking cell in your body

    b) The mRNA vaccines from German and American labs.
    — not a full bug, doesn’t reproduce, but just delivery to your cells of mRNA that produces spike protein (to rile up immune system), limited to amount in vaccine shot

    You can pick whichever.

    I’m an Irish-Anglo-Germanic American white guy. I’m going with the white man’s vaccine over the Chinaman’s f’ing germ.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @AnotherDad

    I'd call that a good argument. I'm going to sit this vaccination out, and look at the results. I had read about mRNA interference a few years back; it's exciting to see related technology put to use.

    But I won't trust it until we've experimented on a few hundred million others first.

    And I suspect that that several-days dry cough back in March was the COVID.

    , @TomSchmidt
    @AnotherDad

    There's something else in here that the precautionary principle tells me. Paraphrasing from Taleb's Antifragile, we have the concept of Umberto Eco's anti library. Eco famously had a library of 30,000 or so volumes that he had read. You can sense you're dealing with a truly well-read individual when you read his work.

    There's also his anti-library, the set of volumes that he never read. That is of course much larger. There might be things in the anti-library that contradict the things in his library that he knows, but he simply does not and cannot know those things, this for a man whose knowledge surely exceeds 99.9% of humanity.

    I take what you say about the knowledge behind the mRNA vaccine at face value. What I'm not convinced of is the size of the anti-library dealing with all the things we do not yet understand about RNI interference. You seem to believe it is small in comparison to the library; I think it's large.

    You'll be doing me and all of mankind a favor if you take the vaccine, as it will help us enlarge our library and shrink the anti-library. I hope I retain the right not to take it.

    Replies: @Jack D, @That Would Be Telling

  154. Anon[240] • Disclaimer says:

    Another anaphylaxis reaction to the vaccine, this time in Alaska. Epinephrine to the rescue. But I was curious about the 15-minute post-vaccination observational period I had read about. A few seconds of research told me that half of anaphylaxis reactions occur during the first hour. Although I am no math genius, I conclude that half occur AFTER the first hour. So what’s the story with that 15 minutes? I suppose they can’t force you to leave the hospital lobby after 15 minutes. Or if they do, you can always hang-out outside, and if your throat swells-up, you are right there.

  155. @Jack D
    Somewhat OT, but last night I came across a story on TV about a nursing home in a rural part of Ohio. It must have been in a particularly white part of the state because EVERYONE was white - the elderly patients, even the staff (where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff). Anyway, at the start of the epidemic, the staff realized that the only way that they were going to keep the epidemic of the nursing home was to lock it down, including themselves. If they went home every night they would surely bring it back to the facility. So they all decided to live at the home for the duration (during the summer when the epidemic declined to low levels in their area they were able to go home but now they are back at it). The staff said that all of the people in the home were in effect their grandparents and that they didn't want to kill their grandparents. So far no one at the home has contracted Covid. Zero cases.

    I don't get the feeling that the average (black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean) nursing home employee in NY or PA thinks of the residents as being his or her grandparents. If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @J.Ross, @JohnnyWalker123, @utu, @Bardon Kaldian

    where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff

    I’ve noticed this too.

    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes? I noticed the first four ethnic groups overrepresented as RNs and CNAs, with Subcons being highly represented as doctors.

    Interestingly, the owners and managers of the facilities are usually native-born Whites. They’re sort of the front men.

    If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.

    That’s a very good point.

    • Replies: @epebble
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes?

    May be the citizens do not like to work with elderly and infirm? If this were not so, the elders would have been taken care of at homes by their younger relatives. Citizen students haven't been flocking to hard science classes in universities. So, supply is also a problem.

    , @peterike
    @JohnnyWalker123


    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes?
     
    Because the pay sucks and so do the working conditions.

    with Subcons being highly represented as doctors.

     

    Massive opportunities for fake Medicaid billings. It's a gold mine for the unscrupulous.

    the owners and managers of the facilities are usually native-born Whites.

     

    In NYC a lot of nursing homes are owned by Orthodox Jews. It's another racket.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Brutusale
    @JohnnyWalker123

    With Subcons being highly suspect as doctors.

    FIFY

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

  156. @Jack D
    Somewhat OT, but last night I came across a story on TV about a nursing home in a rural part of Ohio. It must have been in a particularly white part of the state because EVERYONE was white - the elderly patients, even the staff (where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff). Anyway, at the start of the epidemic, the staff realized that the only way that they were going to keep the epidemic of the nursing home was to lock it down, including themselves. If they went home every night they would surely bring it back to the facility. So they all decided to live at the home for the duration (during the summer when the epidemic declined to low levels in their area they were able to go home but now they are back at it). The staff said that all of the people in the home were in effect their grandparents and that they didn't want to kill their grandparents. So far no one at the home has contracted Covid. Zero cases.

    I don't get the feeling that the average (black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean) nursing home employee in NY or PA thinks of the residents as being his or her grandparents. If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @J.Ross, @JohnnyWalker123, @utu, @Bardon Kaldian

    Dedicated nursing home staff goes home after 65 days in isolation
    https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/dedicated-nursing-home-staff-goes-home-after-65-days-in-isolation-video.html

    I would think that they were paid more. So it was management/owner decision. With right leadership and some incentive you could do the same with black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean stuff. Perhaps the owners were real Christians. There are many real Christians in places like Newark, Ohio.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @utu

    Very early in the epidemic a nursing home owner in Connecticut moved some trailers onto the property and had staff members move into them. Coupled with the standard suspension of visitors this kept the virus from spreading among the patients. The catch was that the owner paid participating employees about $3,000 per month in addition to their normal salaries, something that most facilities couldn't afford.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

  157. @utu
    @Jack D

    Dedicated nursing home staff goes home after 65 days in isolation
    https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/dedicated-nursing-home-staff-goes-home-after-65-days-in-isolation-video.html

    I would think that they were paid more. So it was management/owner decision. With right leadership and some incentive you could do the same with black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean stuff. Perhaps the owners were real Christians. There are many real Christians in places like Newark, Ohio.

    Replies: @prosa123

    Very early in the epidemic a nursing home owner in Connecticut moved some trailers onto the property and had staff members move into them. Coupled with the standard suspension of visitors this kept the virus from spreading among the patients. The catch was that the owner paid participating employees about $3,000 per month in addition to their normal salaries, something that most facilities couldn’t afford.

    • Thanks: utu
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @prosa123


    The catch was that the owner paid participating employees about $3,000 per month in addition to their normal salaries, something that most facilities couldn’t afford.
     
    But it is something the Fed can afford.

    Pocket change for QE to cover.
  158. @That Would Be Telling
    @Buffalo Joe


    Berkeley City Teachers are in line to be among the first recipients of the new vaccine, but they can not be forced to take the vaccine and can’t be terminated for not being vacinated. So while a solution to hybrid classes is in the offing, in other words, teachers can return to classes, they won’t.
     
    "Chicago Schools Hiring People to Supervise Kids in Class While Teachers Work Remotely"

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Abolish_public_education

    The public union (CTU) schoolteachers will insist that the supervisors be credentialed .. in something or other.

    Once Chicago USD assents to the CTU’s collective bargaining demand, the union will forevermore insist that, while remote work should be available as an option for teachers with seniority, all classrooms must be staffed with unionized supervisors, i.e. assistant babysitters — all of whom will be constantly on their phones.

    [MORE]

    It’s beyond ridiculous how the entitled, special interest, school industry tells taxpayers to shut-up and fund remote instruction — at the same price or higher than in-person babysitting.

    In fairness, at least remote institution finally solved the problem of school violence.

  159. @Reg Cæsar

    “Now more than ever it is crucial for every American to have access to the resources to make their voices heard during an election, whether that be on a national scale, or in their local races.

    “Access to resources”? Such as?

    Answer: Ballots.

    Whether they live in Macon, GA, or Brooklyn, NY. Or whether they’ve already voted. Or whether they’re alive or deceased.

  160. @Dr. X

    My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.
     
    Are you kidding me, Steve? The last thing the powers-that-be want is to "get the damn pandemic over and done with." It's given them previously undreamed-of powers -- the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election... and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process.

    Justice Alito even complained that nothing he has ever seen has been more damaging to civil liberties.

    Sure, they won't be able to milk COVID-19 forever... but there's always COVID-21 or some other bogeyman lurking over the horizon for which more government power will always be the "solution." They're going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Replies: @Hannah Katz, @Jake, @BB753, @Aardvark, @Old and Grumpy, @Achmed E. Newman, @Bragadocious, @JohnnyWalker123, @vinteuil

    The last thing the powers-that-be want is to “get the damn pandemic over and done with.” It’s given them previously undreamed-of powers — the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election… and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process…They’re going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.

    Precisely so.

    I spent a couple of years as an intern in the bioethics department at the National Institutes of Health. My immediate bosses were Zeke Emanuel & Christine Grady (aka Mrs. Anthony Fauci).

    We all really need to understand what guys like Zeke Emanuel & Anthony Fauci are like. They are not like you or me. They are high on power. They live for control – total control over every aspect of everyone’s life, everywhere & forever.

    For them, the expansion of government power is not an unfortunate necessity in a time of emergency. It is the realization of all their fondest dreams.

    And, with the “election” of Biden/Harris, they are now in the position to ensure that we’ll never, ever, be “over and done” with the present state of emergency.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @vinteuil


    And, with the “election” of Biden/Harris, they are now in the position to ensure that we’ll never, ever, be “over and done” with the present state of emergency.
     
    They only have to go through the motions to try to get the tribal part of the Right that's "No COVID-19 vaccines, ever!" and they'll have ever bit of justification they need for the control over the whole county you say they so fervently desire, in the form you mention. "Shame we have to keep you locked down, it it wasn't for those [fill in the blank]." And a good and legitimate way to further dehumanize the Right. Who wants to share a county with frank, open sociopaths?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @vinteuil

    , @Abolish_public_education
    @vinteuil

    I am so sick and tired of seeing government bureaucrats marry one another.

    Wiki informs that this bureaucratic, “power” couple has three kids. I’m guessing that their children were sent to private schools.

    A voucher system.

  161. @res
    @Steve Sailer

    I tend to think you are right, but am curious about That Would Be Telling's response.

    For those who don't see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 - 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 - 3. Countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID-19 (lockdowns, masks, etc.) are likely to reduce the effective R of the flu below 1 at which point it stops spreading freely (there might still be occasional cases).

    It is also worth looking at the CDC flu tracker data from March-April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @utu, @Polynikes, @Hypnotoad666, @danand

    The R0 for NYC could be 5 or even higher and for rural Iowa it can be only 1.5. The R0 here is for the population that consciously or subconsciously does not apply any social distancing countermeasures and goes about life as normal as before the news of the epidemic. The curves of growth that were observed implied lower than 5 R0 because the countermeasure even if not official were already lowering R0 in the very beginning of the epidemic once the news about the epidemic reached the people. For example people stopped going to Chinatown before there were any cases even despite that they were guilt tripped for it.

    The herd immunity threshold will be lower if we maintain some countermeasures so we can stop the epidemic while vaccinating before we go to normal life. I suspect that once vaccination begins some people will think that they can go back to normal and this will increase the infection rate. People should be told that our first goal in the next year is to stop the epidemic while going back to normal will come later.

  162. It’s important to note that COVID is a crisis of moderate magnitude, neither “Just the flu, bro” nor the end of the world (as I will demonstrate below).

    Right! Yet your solution of a vaccine, especially a rushed one, is a solution for the latter.

    The survival rate of catching the disease is far greater than the efficacy of the vaccine so why not err on the side of caution? Surely we’ve all learned by now that medical intervention is always last recourse and our first principal must always be “do no harm”.

    A novel vaccine for a novel virus is an hysterical response commensurate with that of the “Just the flu, bro” “nietzschean ubermen” you rightfully deride.

    I was on the side of caution initially due to the fact it was a novel virus, evidence from Wuhan looked frightening and as an adult I chose a path of caution. Likewise, now that we have several months of evidence from all over the world in all sorts of environments, this is a disease that’s a little bit worse than the flu and predominantly affects old age people at death’s door. The cure is worse than the disease with government’s all over the world in lockstep destroying their economies and rapidly heading towards mandatory vaccines as our only way out.

    [MORE]

    Do you want this as the everlasting legacy of phase locked late stage boomers? That you would not only suck dry every last drop of life from our economy but now destroy our future under a one world United Soviet of America*?

    Peter Robinson made the case in a recent podcast with John Anderson that it was the boomers frightened of covid-19 who were the deciding difference in the election, fearful of Trump’s early bravado (no doubt influenced by is inner circle-jerk God Emperor Trust the Plan Southern Baptist whack offs). Still, why won’t these boomers harden the fuck up for fuck’s sake?

    Fortunately, with the delivery of the first of several vaccines, we are now finally at the point where victory is in sight, assuming Americans don’t botch the opportunity to put this whole awful experience in our past. But a large enough number of us must choose to win.

    False dichotomies lead to wrong conclusions and solutions. NSW, the premier state in Australia, is the Gold Standard in covid response: contact tracing! Get it right and follow a path of minimal disruption to the economy focusing protection on the elderly.

    Unfortunately (or deliberately) the msm and alt-right focus has been on the authoritarian reaction of Victoria in Australia. NSW and Victoria are chalk and cheese responses, NSW now economically thriving leading the rest of Oz out of recession.

    Steps: contact tracing, minimal disruption to economy, focus on protecting elderly in nursing homes.

    Contact tracing is not some Big Brother police state but simply scanning a QR code and entering your details on visiting an establishment like you would a visitor’s book in a tourist town, or at any of the pubs and clubs in NSW so you can claim your wins from the poker machines.

    And, eventually, rely on herd immunity like we would and have for time eternal. Whatever you do: don’t take the vaccine. Get sick instead.

    I’m diseased
    And I don’t mind
    Gunna make you love me
    Til the day you die
    Touch me I’m sick!
    Fuck me I’m sick!
    If you don’t come
    You’ll die alone!

    *Julian Asasange’s apt term and prediction

  163. @Jack D
    Somewhat OT, but last night I came across a story on TV about a nursing home in a rural part of Ohio. It must have been in a particularly white part of the state because EVERYONE was white - the elderly patients, even the staff (where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff). Anyway, at the start of the epidemic, the staff realized that the only way that they were going to keep the epidemic of the nursing home was to lock it down, including themselves. If they went home every night they would surely bring it back to the facility. So they all decided to live at the home for the duration (during the summer when the epidemic declined to low levels in their area they were able to go home but now they are back at it). The staff said that all of the people in the home were in effect their grandparents and that they didn't want to kill their grandparents. So far no one at the home has contracted Covid. Zero cases.

    I don't get the feeling that the average (black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean) nursing home employee in NY or PA thinks of the residents as being his or her grandparents. If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @J.Ross, @JohnnyWalker123, @utu, @Bardon Kaldian

    I don’t get the feeling that the average (black/Hispanic/African/Caribbean) nursing home employee in NY or PA thinks of the residents as being his or her grandparents.

    Understatement of the year.

  164. Everybody I know has got over it and compares it to a mild case of the flu.
    And most of us don’t need a vaccine for the flu, despite the propaganda.

    Never mind the ’76 and ’09 Swine flu vaccine fiascos, both of which were rush jobs.

    If people insist on getting the vaccine, fine, but what the puppet masters really want is a proof of vaccine card to work, shop or live normal lives.

    Nyet.

    WADR Steve you need to get out of your closet a bit more for some fresh air and sunshine.
    Which is precisely what TPTB don’t want and never have and in part has dragged it out.

    FWIW a Dr. Weiler at PA Medical Freedom gathering.
    https://rumble.com/vbm2k5-james-lyons-weiler-pathogenic-priming-coronavirus-vaccine-safety-warning.html
    Kind of a mad scientist look, but pretty good public speaker 14 min.

    But hey as long as Bill Gates and Dr. F get it first and financial liablity is not waived by Pfizer and the rest of the big boys, I might reconsider.

    cheers

    • Replies: @Dutch Boy
    @MB

    Pharma's liability has already been waived:
    " If you are injured by a pandemic vaccine, you cannot sue any of the parties involved in getting the vaccine to you. Within one year of vaccination, you would have to file a claim with the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP), run by the Department of Health and Human Services, which is also sponsoring the COVID-19 vaccination program
    The maximum CICP payout is $250,000 per person; however, you’d have to exhaust your private insurance policy first. CICP will only pay the difference between what your insurance covers and the total CICP payout amount established for your case."
    https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/12/14/covid-19-vaccine-cicp.aspx

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  165. I am a Nietzschean superman,
    Dressed like a Nazi storm trooper, man!
    Tiny sucker-tipped arms
    Can’t do me any harm;
    They call me the COVID ass-whooper* man!

    *“Whooper” pronounced as spelt, as in “Indian War Whoop” (not “whupper”).

    • LOL: Buffalo Joe
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @the one they call Desanex

    Whiggledy piggledy,
    One They Call Desenex
    rushes to versify
    what we read here,

    ready to offer his
    pseudo-Hibernian
    rodomontade to the
    iSteveosphere.


    2 ⁴ 2020:


    There was a young lady called Harris
    That nothing could ever embarrass
    Till the bath salts, one day
    In the tub where she lay
    Turned out to be Plaster of Paris.

    --Ogden Nash (1902-71)

    There once were two cats of Kilkenny,
    Each thought there was one cat too many,
    So they fought and they fit,
    And they scratched and they bit,
    Till, excepting their nails
    And the tips of their tails,
    Instead of two cats, there weren’t any.

    --anonymous

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex

  166. Let me preface my comments by saying that me and mine are probably going to get the vaccine. My wife might get it next week since she’s a front line medical worker. It will also let us check on her folks who believe everything they see on CNN and haven’t let anyone in to see them since March.

    I’m not convinced that even if everyone got vaccinated it would end the current year madness. There’s lots of uncertainty here. Right now there are (assume an ‘about’ ahead of all numbers that follow) 335M Americans and 55M have gotten the Bug per the CDC. That leaves 280M would are susceptible to it. If herd immunity is 66%, then 168M Americans ( (168+55)/335 = 66%) will need to be made immune in someway for herd immunity to kick in. If it’s 75%, the number is 196M. If it’s 80%, the number is 213M. (I am assuming that once you get the Bug, then you are immune to the Bug. One of many assumptions I’ll be making.)

    The stated efficiency is 95%. Briggs thinks this is too high, and would be ‘pleasantly surprised’ by an efficiency of 50%. (https://wmbriggs.com/post/33887/). He thinks the trial was a best case scenario, and the real world efficiency will be lower due to various reasons.

    We can estimate the number of protected Americans from the vaccine based on the expression:

    Np = (% vaccinated = Vr) * (efficiency) * (Number of uninflected Americans).

    Here I am assuming that the vaccine is only given to Americans who haven’t had the Bug yet. (Probably a bad assumption, but let’s roll with it). The number of protected Americans must be higher than the number that require herd immunity for herd immunity to kick in.

    If the efficiency is 95%, then the Np as a function of percent vaccinated is:
    Vr = 100%, Np = 266M
    Vr = 75%, Np = 200M
    Vr = 50%, Np = 133M
    Vr = 25%, Np = 67M
    For a herd immunity threshold of 80%, more than 80% of the population will need to be vaccinated. I don’t expect that to happen. It seems unreasonable given the current environment.

    Now let’s assume that Briggs is pleasantly surprised and the efficiency is 50%:
    Vr = 100%, Np = 140M
    Vr = 75%, Np = 105M
    Vr = 50%, Np = 70M
    Vr = 25%, Np = 35M
    Not even full vaccination will be enough to trigger herd immunity. Worse, once that becomes clear though various samizdat channels, I expect Vr to drop to lower values. At that point, TPTB try to compel vaccination by various means and cause further loss of confidence. The wreckers get blamed by state propaganda organs. Lockdowns continue with massive federal support and pressure. More bad blood develops between Red and Blue. 2020 (when we could all agree that Tiger King was incredible) looks quaint in comparison to 2021.

    As for me, I think that I’ll buy a standing desk for the home office as my Christmas present.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @LRFD

    I looked at the Briggs blog post and frankly he pulls the 50% number out of his ass. It's true that real life efficacy tends to be somewhat lower than in trials but he cuts the efficacy in half based on nothing. I don't know what the actual reduction will be but you can't just pull numbers out of the air and have any credibility. I'm too lazy to research what the real life vs. trial efficacy haircut has been for other vaccines but I'd be shocked if it was half.

  167. The numbers are irrelevant. Our government does not grant rights on a quantitative, provisional basis. We are endowed with QUALITATIVE rights that can not be abridged. The sitting directorate can not be said to be legitimate under our explicate system of governance.

  168. @Reg Cæsar
    https://www.bthvn2020.de/fileadmin/user_upload/banner_website.JPG


    https://www.bthvn2020.de/en/



    https://wp-cpr.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2019/06/peanuts_btvn_bust_1951.jpg

    Replies: @Known Fact, @MEH 0910, @MEH 0910, @Bardon Kaldian, @Father O'Hara, @Menes, @MEH 0910

    How Did Beethoven Hear Music?

    In this episode I discuss Ludwig Van Beethoven’s hearing loss and demonstrate how music may have sounded to his ears and in his mind towards the end of his life.

  169. @roo_ster
    Great Scot, Steve, get a hold of yourself.

    These displays of cowardice are unmanly.

    Replies: @MEH 0910

  170. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Jack D


    where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff
     
    I've noticed this too.

    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes? I noticed the first four ethnic groups overrepresented as RNs and CNAs, with Subcons being highly represented as doctors.

    Interestingly, the owners and managers of the facilities are usually native-born Whites. They're sort of the front men.

    If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.
     
    That's a very good point.

    Replies: @epebble, @peterike, @Brutusale

    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes?

    May be the citizens do not like to work with elderly and infirm? If this were not so, the elders would have been taken care of at homes by their younger relatives. Citizen students haven’t been flocking to hard science classes in universities. So, supply is also a problem.

  171. Steve’s graph showing that the covid deaths follow similar trend as the excess deaths minus the covid deaths suggests that the remainder of the excess death is covid related. Most likely the covid deaths are undercounted.

    I have looked at totals for EU countries.

    There are countries that have excess deaths negative so they are better off with the epidemic than without it;
    there are countries where covid deaths is higher than the excess deaths;
    there are countries where excess deaths is close to the covid deaths;
    there are countries like the US where the excess deaths is higher than the covid deaths.

    Spain and Poland have the highest ratio of excess-to-covid deaths. Either they severely undercounted the covid deaths or they suffered the medical system breakdown that caused many covid unrelated deaths.

  172. @The Alarmist

    Combined: Nineteen cases in the vaccine group, 347 in the placebo group. (That’s not an insignificant sample size.)
     
    Those aren’t samples. The groups of those who got the vaxx and those who got the placebo are samples. The cases are observed incidences of infection in the sample groups at the the time the observations were deemed closed for the purposes of calculating efficacy.

    The efficacy announced is a measure of risk reduction at the time observations were stopped. If observations continue to be made (and you can bet they will), the efficacy could conceivably be even higher, but could also be considerably lower

    What remains undisclosed is the representativeness of the sample groups to one another, though I suspect they would indeed have addressed that by random selection of the treatment groups, as well as to the population as a whole, which they probably didn’t control for very well because they were dealing with volunteers rather than drawing random subjects from the population as a whole. Also unaddressed is the potential for differences in exposure to the virus in the wild (the assumption with very large sized sample groups is that this will be smoothed out by the large number of participants).

    What remains in question is the actual safety (the declaration of safety is based on very short-term data, just like the efficacy), as well as the durability of the vaccine; the cynic in me thinks it will be deliberately attenuated so that these vaccines become an annuity of income for big pharma and a never-ending means of population control measures for governments acting through big biz ... no vaxx, no travel ... no vaxx, no concerts ... ultimately, no vaxx, no food.

    Oh, and the difference of incidences between the two groups at the point they stopped counting cases might have actually been statistically significant ... I’ll leave it to you to do the math for yourself before you again declare something statistical to be significant.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy

    One wonders what the definition of a “case” was. A positive PCR test? Pish! Actual symptoms or need for medical care? That would be meaningful.

    • Agree: Polistra
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Dutch Boy

    I recently saw a blurb that on one of the two tests, only three of the 162 cases in the placebo group were considered severe.

    The first question anyone presenting no symptoms but being asked to take a PCR test is how many cycles they are running; if the answer is, “I don’t know,” or any number greater than 35 (a number The Fauch himself volunteered earlier on), one should politely decline, since there is little valid science going on there, and a false positive result only complicates one’s life.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  173. @Bragadocious
    @Dr. X


    the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation
     
    If only they were doing that. One check for $1200. Meanwhile other industrialized nations are covering 70, 80 or 90 percent of lost wages and business losses caused by lockdowns. And in the midst of this unfathomable government fuckery and sadistic miserliness, Rubio pours salt on the wound with this:

    https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1337478628888678404

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    When thousands of Americans are lined up for food banks (in their cars, which begs the question of how they afford the petrol), it takes a brave politico to borrow more on the backs of those Americans to give yet another $10 per man, woman, child, and non-binary in the US to defend a country whose own residents still rank in the top 20% of the world’s per capita GDP ….

    Brava, Senator Rubio.

    How about running “Text Help to 55555 to send $10 for Israel’s defense” ads on TV, and let’s see how much actual Americans would give if given the choice?

    • Agree: Polistra
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @The Alarmist

    The money doesn't actually go to Israel - it goes to US defense contractors who give overpriced stuff to Israel. The Israelis appreciate the free stuff but most of the money stays here.

    If we were really given a choice about paying taxes I don't think that the Federal government would collect very much money at all. If you look at the amount that the Pentagon wastes, the money that goes toward buying stuff for Israel is just pocket change. The Pentagon budget is $704 billion so $3 billion is just a rounding error.

  174. @MB
    Everybody I know has got over it and compares it to a mild case of the flu.
    And most of us don't need a vaccine for the flu, despite the propaganda.

    Never mind the '76 and '09 Swine flu vaccine fiascos, both of which were rush jobs.

    If people insist on getting the vaccine, fine, but what the puppet masters really want is a proof of vaccine card to work, shop or live normal lives.

    Nyet.

    WADR Steve you need to get out of your closet a bit more for some fresh air and sunshine.
    Which is precisely what TPTB don't want and never have and in part has dragged it out.

    FWIW a Dr. Weiler at PA Medical Freedom gathering.
    https://rumble.com/vbm2k5-james-lyons-weiler-pathogenic-priming-coronavirus-vaccine-safety-warning.html
    Kind of a mad scientist look, but pretty good public speaker 14 min.

    But hey as long as Bill Gates and Dr. F get it first and financial liablity is not waived by Pfizer and the rest of the big boys, I might reconsider.

    cheers

    Replies: @Dutch Boy

    Pharma’s liability has already been waived:
    ” If you are injured by a pandemic vaccine, you cannot sue any of the parties involved in getting the vaccine to you. Within one year of vaccination, you would have to file a claim with the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP), run by the Department of Health and Human Services, which is also sponsoring the COVID-19 vaccination program
    The maximum CICP payout is $250,000 per person; however, you’d have to exhaust your private insurance policy first. CICP will only pay the difference between what your insurance covers and the total CICP payout amount established for your case.”
    https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/12/14/covid-19-vaccine-cicp.aspx

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Dutch Boy

    On the new CICP "vaccine court" for COVID-19 "Countermeasures": governments are cheap, ours doesn't want to pay 10 to 100 times as much for these countermeasures including vaccines that would be required if they were to be subject to our totally insane civil law system. See the children's vaccine court established in 1988 when pertussis (whooping cough) vaccine was becoming unobtanium.

    There's also the sad fact that no matter what you do, when you give vaccines to tens of millions of people, you will absolutely positively maim and kill a few of them. That's just how things work with our wild and crazy, but usually in a good way, immune systems.

    Or take your chances with an uncontrolled zillions of your cells infected wild type virus infection, nature doesn't care how you get immunized, or die and make that irrelevant.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy

  175. @davidgmillsatty
    @That Would Be Telling

    Except that Italy is now in the lead for earliest human infection, beating China by several months

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33176598/

    "SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%)....

    Replies: @J.Ross

    … because of all the Chinese there. Italy built Chinese sweatshops and shipped the slaves in to be able to have a “Made In Italy” label.

    • Agree: Polistra
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @J.Ross

    Nah, Bergamo doesn't have many Chinese immigrants.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

  176. @BB753
    @Dr. X

    Covid-19 is the best thing that has happened to our elites. Why would they want to end it, and what makes you think that the cure won't be worse than the vaccine? When did Steve Sailer become so naive?

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    When did Steve Sailer become so naive?

    What, you think the Deep State Davoisie would allow Steve Sailor to publish? Don’t you realize Steve Sailor has been replaced by “Steve Sailor”? When did BB753 become so naive?

    • LOL: BB753
    • Replies: @BB753
    @kaganovitch

    I know you're joking but Steve Sailer has totally changed since the Wu-Flu scare hit the news.
    To the point that Steve Sailer almost sounded like a Fox News commentator on his interview with Dutton. Has Steve lost his mojo?
    Is it a California thing?

    Replies: @kaganovitch

  177. @unit472
    @candid_observer

    Herd immunity is a wonderful objective but is there any evidence it even exists? Was small pox overcome because of 'herd immunity? The 'Black Death ,or did survivors become so few and far between that those viruses just ran out of new hosts... until the next outbreak?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Herd immunity is a wonderful objective but is there any evidence it even exists? Was small pox overcome because of ‘herd immunity? The ‘Black Death ,or did survivors become so few and far between that those viruses just ran out of new hosts… until the next outbreak?

    Herd immunity only makes sense in the context of what herd you’re talking about. Smallpox was effectively eradicated from the US long before it was from the entire earth, and that’s because imported smallpox cases hit a wall of immune hosts, although I would not be surprise to learn there was some transmission. The last known cases of smallpox are illuminating, in 1978 a not understood lab release in the U.K. infected a photographer who used a darkroom below that lab, despite a 1966 inoculation she got it and died. Her mother contracted “a very minor” case, no known other cases, but we might assume some people got exposed throughout the process and were fully protected by the vaccinations.

    The Black Death is caused by a bacteria, initial route is from rodent reservoirs (don’t get too friendly with them in the western US, where the last plague pandemic ended up due to, as usual, it coming from mainland China), normally with an anthropoid vector like fleas. But that bubonic plague can then get into the blood, and at worst case for public health, the lungs, upon which it can spread like wildfire. I’m pretty sure not enough people ever got it that herd immunity would ever become a factor.

    Measles would be a good virus to study, much, much more transmissible than most anything else we vaccinate against, with the anti-vaxxers, certain special populations, and foreign sources breaking down the herd immunity that was achieved at great effort.

    So for COVID-19 today, at most you should shoot for herd immunity in particular nations, particularly important for a country like the US that this side of the counter-revolution has almost totally open borders, there will always been immigrants and visitors bringing it back here. By and large I wouldn’t spend much time thinking about it today, after enough people get these new vaccines under FDA Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) the attitudes towards them might change, and it’ll be some months before everyone who wants them today can get them. As it is, COVID-19 instantly became part of our cold civil war, is now to the point an insane tribal and political thing, and a great fraction of the Right is proving the Left was right about them, claiming a right to infect others as they please.

    • Replies: @danand
    @That Would Be Telling

    "Measles would be a good virus to study, much, much more transmissible than most anything else we vaccinate against..."

    That Would Be Telling, interesting comment. Measles immunity has proven over the years to be robust.

    Can't recall where I came across this, but tabled are a few diseases for which vaccines have been developed. It gives estimates for antibody half-life based off, as I recall, a couple decades worth of subject sampling, that was then extrapolated.


    https://flic.kr/p/2khFWCV

    Replies: @res

    , @anon
    @That Would Be Telling


    a great fraction of the Right is proving the Left was right about them, claiming a right to infect others as they please.
     
    wtf are you on about? leftoids can get the vax and they'll be protected, no matter how many righties decide not to get it. As usual, the palimpsest of leftie rhetoric reveals a deep-seated totalitarian urge for power over those who would deny their authority.
  178. @Dr. DoomNGloom
    "Botched", there's an interesting word. Democrat elites brainwashed their base into thinking that Trump "botched" the pandemic. In truth, he quite literally saved the world.
    It's pretty clear from circumstantial evidence that he set an outrageous goal, provided the resources, and removed barriers. That last part, accomplished with his typical tact, made a lot of enemies and may have cost him the election.

    Al Gore gets a lot of mocking for "inventing the internet". Of course he didn't, any more than Kennedy invented the Saturn V. But let's give leadership credit where credit is due . Do we get a Christmas vaccine with President Hillary?

    Replies: @peterike, @Chrisnonymous

    Do we get a Christmas vaccine with President Hillary?

    With President Hillary we wouldn’t have had a “pandemic” in the first place. Just a bad flu year.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @peterike

    Agreed, though that wouldn't explain Belgium, Italy, Brazil etc.

  179. @BRK
    If I was over 40 I would be more okay with taking the vaccine. But my wife and I are still hoping to have more children and the rumour in conspiracy circles is that one of the side effects of the vaccine is infertility. Conspiracy circles are making a big deal about TPTB wanting population control and Bill Gates himself being linked to the population control/eugenics movement, which struck me as a bit much, but you never know. I might have missed previous comments on this topic. What are the iSteve commenters thoughts on this? Are fears overblown or is taking the vaccine not worth the risk?

    Replies: @S. Anonyia, @Chrisnonymous

    Same. I would be all for taking it…but I’m only 30. The chances of me dying of COVID are way slimmer than having a random heart attack or stroke. I think Great Britain is recommending women planning to get pregnant within 3 months not take the vaccine initially. That’s probably where the rumors of infertility are coming from.

    Hopefully I’m last in line so I can observe what the actual effects are, but I think my job will require it by Spring or Summer.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @S. Anonyia

    '...Hopefully I’m last in line so I can observe what the actual effects are, but I think my job will require it by Spring or Summer.'

    One of the ironies here is that us cantankerous old bastards who are already retired will prove to be one of the groups best able to refuse to take the vaccine.

    ...never mind that we're about the only group who would be even theoretically likely to benefit from it.

  180. @Prester John
    @Guy De Champlagne

    "We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. "

    Our first opportunity was after the anthrax scare which followed 9/11. I recall hearing several scientists ring the alarm bells, saying that the time had arrived for this country to gear up in the event of a real bio-emergency i.e. a full-blown attack or a pandemic). Three administrations slept through 20 years without doing anything.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    “We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. ”

    Our first opportunity was after the anthrax scare which followed 9/11. I recall hearing several scientists ring the alarm bells, saying that the time had arrived for this country to gear up in the event of a real bio-emergency i.e. a full-blown attack or a pandemic). Three administrations slept through 20 years without doing anything.

    Do you really believe that?? Certainly not enough, and against the near total opposition of today’s public health establishment which holds infectious disease control in disdain, focusing on banning Big Gulps and guns, “lifestyle” issues.

    I suppose you missed, just off the top of my head: rebuilding a smallpox vaccine inventory, building up stocks of supplies for future pandemics (not managed well, and a lot not rebuild by Obama after the 2009 flu pandemic), research into SARS type coronaviruses that among other things dealt with antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), so Moderna literally was able to create their vaccine candidate over a weekend after the sequences were first published out of the PRC, and how about the flu pandemic plan? Which formed the basis of a lot of our COVID-19 response.

  181. @AndrewR
    @Redneck farmer

    In the 2030s? Awfully specific. Do you know something we don't?

    Replies: @Dago Shoes, @Redneck farmer

    It would be far, far better to ask that question — or to have asked it even 5-10 years ago — of Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci, the whole great group who’ve run all of the ‘simulations’ going back a decade who’ve ‘predicted’ this event (Event 201, anyone?), the WEF folks — numerous other suspects who’ve pretty well apparently ‘known’ that this was coming … and what they were going to use it to do to US …

  182. @Steve Sailer
    @Jake

    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @TomSchmidt, @DCThrowback, @Mr. Anon, @res, @ferd

    Pandemic analysis has exposed an interesting fault line between conservatives who are intelligent and innumerate, and those who can read data. This has been a huge theme in my life since March.

    For God’s sake, look at the graphs in Steve’s piece.

    • Agree: utu
    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @utu
    @ferd

    "...intelligent and innumerate, and those who can read data..." - There is also a bias that might the dominant factor impeding the ability of reading the data. Having a libertarian involved in designing the countermeasures against the epidemic is like having a pacifist conscientious objector at the war council.

    Replies: @Jtgw

  183. @vinteuil
    @Dr. X


    The last thing the powers-that-be want is to “get the damn pandemic over and done with.” It’s given them previously undreamed-of powers — the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election… and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process...They’re going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.
     
    Precisely so.

    I spent a couple of years as an intern in the bioethics department at the National Institutes of Health. My immediate bosses were Zeke Emanuel & Christine Grady (aka Mrs. Anthony Fauci).

    We all really need to understand what guys like Zeke Emanuel & Anthony Fauci are like. They are not like you or me. They are high on power. They live for control - total control over every aspect of everyone's life, everywhere & forever.

    For them, the expansion of government power is not an unfortunate necessity in a time of emergency. It is the realization of all their fondest dreams.

    And, with the "election" of Biden/Harris, they are now in the position to ensure that we'll never, ever, be "over and done" with the present state of emergency.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Abolish_public_education

    And, with the “election” of Biden/Harris, they are now in the position to ensure that we’ll never, ever, be “over and done” with the present state of emergency.

    They only have to go through the motions to try to get the tribal part of the Right that’s “No COVID-19 vaccines, ever!” and they’ll have ever bit of justification they need for the control over the whole county you say they so fervently desire, in the form you mention. “Shame we have to keep you locked down, it it wasn’t for those [fill in the blank].” And a good and legitimate way to further dehumanize the Right. Who wants to share a county with frank, open sociopaths?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @That Would Be Telling


    Who wants to share a county with frank, open sociopaths?
     
    OK, then, separate counties. I'd love to keep those sociopathic Totalitarians on the other side of the county line.

    Seriously though, I'm not going to be cowed with these threats like, "just cooperate, and they won't have an excuse to clamp down harder." Heard multiple times in the security line in the airport: "If it weren't for those bad guys ruining it for all of us, we/you/your kid wouldn't have to get felt up." Where does this attitude lead? You well known.

    And this is from a guy who couldn't care very much about taking the virus or not taking it.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    , @vinteuil
    @That Would Be Telling

    So what's your first language? It's obviously not English.

  184. @Joe Stalin
    @Achmed E. Newman


    If you want something to compare the mentality that you well-describe here, just travel by air and look at the TSA bullshit that has been going on for 19 years. That hasn’t ended yet.
     
    I remember a couple of years back when the Feds were rewriting the flight rules to allow a passenger to once again carry small pocket knives e.g. Swiss Army knives but all the stewardesses whined about the Muzzie terrorists using knives in the 9/11, so the Feds backed off.

    We need to get back to 1960s levels of risk tolerances for this country to come back from the shit-show we're morphing to.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    We need to get back to 1960s levels of risk tolerances for this country to come back from the shit-show we’re morphing to.

    Regarding the flying/terrorism scare, one could argue (and you’d be the 2nd to, Joe after me, I’m sure) that if passengers hadn’t been disarmed for years and especially on 09/11/01, we wouldn’t even have a TSA today or a Department of Motherland Security. We’d have a day to be proud of as Americans who defended themselves easily from some nuts with little box-cutters (if the official story is true – please everyone, don’t start – Ron Unz has hundreds of threads about this). Peak Stupidity expounded on this 3 years ago in 16 Years of Spreading Democracy – They still hate us for our freedoms(?)

    In other words, having no TSA and Motherland Security would make us safer, even before we look at the Police State angle that makes life more dangerous in the long run. What about the CDC? I don’t have any problem with a small department in the Feral Gov’t that gathers stats, but I don’t need to hear even recommendations from them. Plenty of non-government people in the field would have advice. If this were a new Black Plague, we’d have seen or heard of people die on our very block and multiple relatives too, and we’d be hunkering down on our own with our beans, bullets, and band-aids.

  185. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Jack D


    where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff
     
    I've noticed this too.

    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes? I noticed the first four ethnic groups overrepresented as RNs and CNAs, with Subcons being highly represented as doctors.

    Interestingly, the owners and managers of the facilities are usually native-born Whites. They're sort of the front men.

    If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.
     
    That's a very good point.

    Replies: @epebble, @peterike, @Brutusale

    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes?

    Because the pay sucks and so do the working conditions.

    with Subcons being highly represented as doctors.

    Massive opportunities for fake Medicaid billings. It’s a gold mine for the unscrupulous.

    the owners and managers of the facilities are usually native-born Whites.

    In NYC a lot of nursing homes are owned by Orthodox Jews. It’s another racket.

    • Agree: Polistra, 3g4me
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @peterike


    Because the pay sucks
     
    Pay isn't bad. It's competitive.

    Massive opportunities for fake Medicaid billings. It’s a gold mine for the unscrupulous.

     

    Definitely possible. Though my understanding is that nursing home doctors aren't paid by procedure, but paid by number of patients. From what I saw, the doctors minimized the care they provided because they didn't want to spend too much time per patient. In actual hospitals, it's different, as they're paid by procedure and, therefore, incentivized to maximize care.

    In NYC a lot of nursing homes are owned by Orthodox Jews. It’s another racket.

     

    Interesting.
  186. @That Would Be Telling
    @vinteuil


    And, with the “election” of Biden/Harris, they are now in the position to ensure that we’ll never, ever, be “over and done” with the present state of emergency.
     
    They only have to go through the motions to try to get the tribal part of the Right that's "No COVID-19 vaccines, ever!" and they'll have ever bit of justification they need for the control over the whole county you say they so fervently desire, in the form you mention. "Shame we have to keep you locked down, it it wasn't for those [fill in the blank]." And a good and legitimate way to further dehumanize the Right. Who wants to share a county with frank, open sociopaths?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @vinteuil

    Who wants to share a county with frank, open sociopaths?

    OK, then, separate counties. I’d love to keep those sociopathic Totalitarians on the other side of the county line.

    Seriously though, I’m not going to be cowed with these threats like, “just cooperate, and they won’t have an excuse to clamp down harder.” Heard multiple times in the security line in the airport: “If it weren’t for those bad guys ruining it for all of us, we/you/your kid wouldn’t have to get felt up.” Where does this attitude lead? You well known.

    And this is from a guy who couldn’t care very much about taking the virus or not taking it.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Achmed E. Newman


    Seriously though, I’m not going to be cowed with these threats like, “just cooperate, and they won’t have an excuse to clamp down harder.”
     
    That's not a threat, it's a prediction about how your current behavior is idiotically playing right into their hands.

    Perhaps a wrong one, they could just go for preventing you from doing a host of things, ultimately exiting your property or stepping outside your door if in an apartment or the like, if you refuse to take any of the vaccine options unless they all have contraindications for you.

    I don't know how these people's minds work, I don't know what political power they're going to be able to amass, their clown show in handling COVID-19 in the US from Trump on down has squandered an unimaginable amount of political capital. Which is why I'm thinking, without any evidence they're that smart, that they just might take this more clever approach, especially if they get their fingers burnt trying forceful ones. Or they could do both....

    And I repeat, in the meanwhile, the Right and the Republicans (not at all the same thing) are losing a constituency they require to win elections. I suppose in light of that, the prospect of voting becoming meaningless is not such a big deal if you're on the Right or a Republican....

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross

  187. @Reg Cæsar
    https://www.bthvn2020.de/fileadmin/user_upload/banner_website.JPG


    https://www.bthvn2020.de/en/



    https://wp-cpr.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2019/06/peanuts_btvn_bust_1951.jpg

    Replies: @Known Fact, @MEH 0910, @MEH 0910, @Bardon Kaldian, @Father O'Hara, @Menes, @MEH 0910

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @MEH 0910

    I haven't seen many Woke takes on Beethoven this week. Back in September there were a lot of them, but I guess we laughed them out of fashion.

    Replies: @Polistra

  188. @Bruce Charlton
    The Litmus Test issues keep coming, and those who fail one, tend to go on to fail the next.

    So, those who did not see-through the fraud that is the pandemic (and did not later repent their error) - also fail to notice the global totalitarian coup of early 2020 (I'd have thought this was impossible to miss, but nothing is too big to be ignored in 2020), and the same folk have also failed to perceive the obvious electoral fraud.

    I think this is because once one has decided to trust the good motivations of the Global Establishment, and bought-into their... way of explaining their actions; then one is caught in a fly bottle from which personal experience and common sense are also excluded.

    From then onwards, one absorbs the ideology along with the facts from the monobloc bureaucracy of mass media/ officialdom/ 'science'/ schools/ academia/ law etc, so that no facts can ever refute the ideology.

    Indeed, there are (in truth) no facts without conceptual understanding - so until a true conceptual understanding is in-place (which, I take it, is Christianity - properly understood by personal intent, not absorbed passively from the 2020 'churches'), then the true facts cannot become apparent.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Jtgw

    Mormonism is not Christianity but heresy. Moreover, people who sincerely believe in it have to be a little insane because it is so clearly refuted by history, archaeology, and Christian theology. Plus, Romney.

  189. Earlier in the year I posted that an IFR of 0.5% is the inflection point between “just the flu bro” and “the sky is falling.” And I speculated that it was probably less than 0.5%. I was wrong. It’s hard to blame us doubters when the mainstream media has been crying wolf for so long. When one actually shows up people with a normal sense of healthy skepticism, are skeptical. I still think without a vaccine 2 million people would have died. Or whatever, the exact number is irrelevant in a sense, however many people were going to die… were going to die. Eventually. Absent a vaccine. Those of you who hunkered down until the vaccine arrived, congratulations. It looks like you played your cards right. I didn’t hunker down. We were shut down for 6 weeks in April. But other than that I pretty much just kept going to work. In my opinion I have bigger problems than covid. And I still think I played my cards right. I really dialed up my productivity at work and I think I helped my boss keep his head above water financially. People like HBD chick are still going hysterical on twitter, according to her I’ve probably developed blood clots and suffered organ damage. Getting old sucks huh? Sars-cov-2 is going to be around forever, but the “pandemic” stage, or let’s call it the first wave, is not going to be around forever. Eventually a wildfire burns through all the dry fresh tinder and smolders out. Thank god for operation warp speed and whoever pushed for it.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @Kyle


    Those of you who hunkered down until the vaccine arrived, congratulations. It looks like you played your cards right. I didn’t hunker down. We were shut down for 6 weeks in April. But other than that I pretty much just kept going to work. In my opinion I have bigger problems than covid. And I still think I played my cards right.
     
    Huh? Which group played their cards right again?

    FWIW, I'm in the first group but knowing what I know now I would have done it your way. But only because I'm not in a high-risk group.

    We didn't have much knowledge in February and March. But we did by July and the rest was politics.

    Why are the IFR and raw death numbers up again now?

  190. Professor Christian Drosten, who developed the PCR test in his own words:

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    Howard, Gov. Newsum says that California is ordering body bags and sending refrigerated trucks to hospital for the looming death totals...sigh, how I wish we could find the truth. Stay safe.

    Replies: @unit472, @epebble

  191. @Anon 2
    OT: The world is starting to tell “Dumb American” jokes

    For example, “Textbooks (1) China, Age 4 ‘Solving Ordinary Differential Equations II’
    (2) USA, Age 4 ‘The Gay B.C.s by M.L. Webb’ (Courtesy of David Zhang on Twitter)

    The United States is increasingly becoming a target of worldwide ridicule because
    of its obsession with LGBT issues, childish level of math education, growing
    squalor of its cities, and most recently, the incompetent handling of the
    pandemic. Britain is becoming the next target of ridicule. Its mishandling
    of Brexit does not help

    Replies: @James O'Meara, @Kyle

    The Chinese text book for 4 year olds is an english language diffy-q textbook. Everyone in China is just following the lead of smart successful Americans. How do we get everyone in America to do that?

  192. @Anon
    Steve, I mostly agree with your criticism of the anti-vaxxers. Yes, there are some unknowns regarding a new vaccine, but it's funny that people who are dismissive of the virus itself get so worked up about potential vaccine side effects. There's some inconsistency there. I don't want to live in a country where the government forces people to get this vaccine, but a widespread lack of common sense about this could make that outcome more likely.

    That said.....it's still not clear what your view is about the restrictions that have been and are in place. You observe that the virus is spread by, for example, church services and birthday parties. So, do you support the huge restrictions that have been placed on these things? Commenters have pointed out that dozens of millions of young people, who are at virtually no risk, have been living in virtual house arrest for much of the past year. Do you support that?

    Yes, many people are taking precautions voluntarily, so it was inevitable that movie theaters were in for a bad year regardless of the decisions of government. But there was no fundamental law of physics requiring that the government respond to the virus in this way. Governments in the past generally didn't, even when faced with worse infectious diseases than we're faced with.

    I give you credit for posting comments from the rude commenters who've been insulting you. But I think people are frustrated that, like so many in public life this year, you seem to focus solely on the reduction of death. For example, your concession to the trade-off argument is that some people are missing cancer screenings- i.e. increasing the likelihood of a different cause of death.

    It's hard to overstate how massive and unprecedented have been the changes put in place this year. There is a real sense in which we no longer live in a free country. There are huge non-health-related costs being imposed on huge numbers of people. I was banned from going to church for several months this year, and now I have to sign up on a list to go. Previous generations of Americans would have considered that insane. Didn't we use to think that there are things worse than dying? Apparently not anymore.

    Replies: @stealth, @Redman

    Nobody believes in the supernatural anymore, so people really really don’t want to die.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @stealth

    Right, one description of 2020 could be "Nietzsche's Last Men handle a crisis".

    Replies: @Wielgus

  193. @That Would Be Telling
    @Steve Sailer


    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.
     
    I'm not so sure about that. The CDC's primary flu surveillance depends on a particular set of doctor's offices and clinics doing point of contact tests and reporting the results. Otherwise, flu is not a "reportable" disease unless it kills an infant. Whereas by law all positive COVID-19 tests must be reported to the authorities.

    So I've been assuming a lot of people with lower grades of flu infection have been avoiding doctor's offices, which at most would give you a Tamiflu prescription very limited utility, better to let nature take its course than potentially get exposed to a much more lethal pathogen. Albeit with very different demographics, but they're all, flu and COVID-19, still quite capable of killing the young and middle aged stone cold dead.

    Replies: @Louis Renault, @Kyle

    “Whereas by law all positive COVID-19 tests must be reported to the authorities.“

    I’d wager a good chunk of people who contracted covid denied it to themselves, didn’t go to the doctor, didn’t tell anyone, and “soldiered on” as the English like to say. It’s an extremely american ethos. How should we go about rounding up those people and punishing them?

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
    @Kyle

    I’d wager a good chunk of people who contracted covid denied it to themselves, didn’t go to the doctor, didn’t tell anyone, and “soldiered on” as the English like to say.

    That's my plan. Maybe I'll take Ivermectin, too.

  194. Steve is really into the propaganda about this … and, somewhat tellingly, he cites the FDA papers which are just the Pfizer and Moderna studies available at the FDA’s web site.

    More to the point, the New England Journal Of Medicine’s reading and explaining of the Pfizer study puts things much more clearly … and pulls back the curtain a bit and lets US see the truth behind all of the gobbledygook … which is that 162 people (8/10%) of the 20,000+ folks given the placebo actually came down with the Fauci flu (even some folks WITH the vaccine came down with it) … and of those on the placebo who came down with the Fauci flu, an infinitesimally small percentage actually were sick enough to require hospitalization (numerous comorbidities).

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Dago Shoes


    Steve is really into the propaganda about this … and, somewhat tellingly, he cites the FDA papers which are just the Pfizer and Moderna studies available at the FDA’s web site.
     
    Not even close, there's one briefing by the "sponsor," Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna (go to "Event Materials"), and another from FDA staff who've studied the former and a lot more, they're so crazy serious they visit manufacturing facilities. I continue to be amazed about how little people know about how the FDA works, even when it can be trivially looked up.

    More to the point, the New England Journal Of Medicine’s reading and explaining of the Pfizer study puts things much more clearly … and pulls back the curtain a bit and lets US see the truth behind all of the gobbledygook … which is that 162 people (8/10%) of the 20,000+ folks given the placebo actually came down with the Fauci flu (even some folks WITH the vaccine came down with it) … and of those on the placebo who came down with the Fauci flu, an infinitesimally small percentage actually were sick enough to require hospitalization (numerous comorbidities).
     
    Ummn, yes? We've been discussing these exact numbers, which are in no way a secret, here on iSteve for some time. Old numbers now, Pfizer submitted its FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application on November 20th, they now have almost a month's more data, in a period where a lot more people are coming down with COVID-19. Another three months maybe and they might be ready to try for full FDA licensure, although unusually based on that EUA tens of millions will get dosed in Phase IV "post-marketing," and there will be tremendously more data than a mere Phase III trial can produce.

    Moderna's numbers are more interesting, they are said to have enrolled a lot more elderly, and had 30 serious cases as of their November 30th EUA application, all on the placebo "arm" of their Phase III study. As I recall, the FDA was initially saying that for trials of this size, around 32 or so cases are where you just begin to get statistical significance.
  195. @Pop Warner
    @Guy De Champlagne


    how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography
     
    But those are the reasons. As the US is a democratic country and very federalized it means that states or cities can openly resist the federal government to everybody's detriment. China's authoritarian system allowed them to completely seal off Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province with absolutely no pushback. Meanwhile, Cuomo threw a massive fit when Rhode Island was screening New York license plates for entry (when the virus was largely contained in New York). And he had judges backing him up effectively preventing the kind of response China had.

    I knew from the beginning that China would handle this better than the US. Their autocratic system can respond much quicker to crises because they don't have to worry about excessive legalism, factions intentionally hurting themselves to spite their opponents, and individual liberties. The US, on the other hand, had some politicians downplay the virus to keep the economy afloat (Trump), and others downplayed or exacerbated the death toll because it would help their party's chances in the upcoming election (democrats, especially mayors and governors where the virus hit the hardest and who put infected patients in nursing homes). Any Chinaesque measure Trump could have taken that would be effective would have been immediately challenged and resisted as we saw all throughout 2020 - Kamala Harris said in the same sentence that she would reject any vaccine Trump endorsed but accept any vaccine Fauci endorsed. His "leave it to the states" strategy meant that the pandemic would never really stop as it went to new places who had different standards. Then the same politicians who (eventually) were the most psychotic about shutdowns completely flipped when it came to peaceful riots against white people and endorsed thousands of people packing the streets, because I guess corona-chan takes a knee for racism. Who needs a vaccine when Saint Floyd protects us?

    All this pandemic really did was expose the incompetence and disunity of the United States. It showed that there is absolutely no sense of unity or camaraderie between American citizens, and there is nothing that can stop the eventual collapse. The Antonine Plague dealt Rome a crushing blow, and it seems the US is also in the Late Imperial Period. Our leaders have been shown to be not just hypocrites but murderous hypocrites, and our media is willing to lie in every way to protect them.

    Replies: @vinteuil

    I knew from the beginning that China would handle this better than the US.

    Yeah, I bet you did.

  196. @Achmed E. Newman
    @That Would Be Telling


    Who wants to share a county with frank, open sociopaths?
     
    OK, then, separate counties. I'd love to keep those sociopathic Totalitarians on the other side of the county line.

    Seriously though, I'm not going to be cowed with these threats like, "just cooperate, and they won't have an excuse to clamp down harder." Heard multiple times in the security line in the airport: "If it weren't for those bad guys ruining it for all of us, we/you/your kid wouldn't have to get felt up." Where does this attitude lead? You well known.

    And this is from a guy who couldn't care very much about taking the virus or not taking it.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Seriously though, I’m not going to be cowed with these threats like, “just cooperate, and they won’t have an excuse to clamp down harder.”

    That’s not a threat, it’s a prediction about how your current behavior is idiotically playing right into their hands.

    Perhaps a wrong one, they could just go for preventing you from doing a host of things, ultimately exiting your property or stepping outside your door if in an apartment or the like, if you refuse to take any of the vaccine options unless they all have contraindications for you.

    I don’t know how these people’s minds work, I don’t know what political power they’re going to be able to amass, their clown show in handling COVID-19 in the US from Trump on down has squandered an unimaginable amount of political capital. Which is why I’m thinking, without any evidence they’re that smart, that they just might take this more clever approach, especially if they get their fingers burnt trying forceful ones. Or they could do both….

    And I repeat, in the meanwhile, the Right and the Republicans (not at all the same thing) are losing a constituency they require to win elections. I suppose in light of that, the prospect of voting becoming meaningless is not such a big deal if you’re on the Right or a Republican….

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @That Would Be Telling

    I didn't mean that it was a threat from YOU, TWBT. It's an implied threat from Government and can be about anything. I meant to add this re: the compliant people in the TSA lines. This country is not supposed to be a Kindergarten.

    "See, now we said 'let a thousand flowers bloom'. You people took WAY too much advantage of this program. We will now implement the 100 riding lawnmowers program." The only thing Chairman Butcher Mao got right was "power comes out of the barrel of a gum."

    Replies: @Adam Smith

    , @J.Ross
    @That Would Be Telling

    >republicans
    >winning elections
    No longer possible or apparently desired. Could be doable if we imposed the deSantis rules everywhere. I haven't heard that proposed by any officeholder. Elections are as fake as medicine.

  197. @That Would Be Telling
    @vinteuil


    And, with the “election” of Biden/Harris, they are now in the position to ensure that we’ll never, ever, be “over and done” with the present state of emergency.
     
    They only have to go through the motions to try to get the tribal part of the Right that's "No COVID-19 vaccines, ever!" and they'll have ever bit of justification they need for the control over the whole county you say they so fervently desire, in the form you mention. "Shame we have to keep you locked down, it it wasn't for those [fill in the blank]." And a good and legitimate way to further dehumanize the Right. Who wants to share a county with frank, open sociopaths?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @vinteuil

    So what’s your first language? It’s obviously not English.

  198. @Reg Cæsar
    https://www.bthvn2020.de/fileadmin/user_upload/banner_website.JPG


    https://www.bthvn2020.de/en/



    https://wp-cpr.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2019/06/peanuts_btvn_bust_1951.jpg

    Replies: @Known Fact, @MEH 0910, @MEH 0910, @Bardon Kaldian, @Father O'Hara, @Menes, @MEH 0910

    Yeah, sure, but Ludwig got PCoed. His heroic trait, the essential lineament of his temperament, has been diffused & distorted into something akin to the pean of the Brussels bureaucracy.

    Of course I know everything from Eroica & Napoleon to the Ode to Joy, but the author’s position is clear- Beethoven, torn between individualist heroism & universalist humanism (a fake dichotomy) had finally chosen the right side.

    Only if he could, he would have probably voted for Sleepy Joe. Most blacks did, anyway.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/15/opinions/celebrating-beethoven-250-birthday-swafford/index.html

    How Beethoven outgrew his hero worship

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @Bardon Kaldian

    Yeah, sure, but Ludwig got PCoed. His heroic trait, the essential lineament of his temperament, has been diffused & distorted into something akin to the pean of the Brussels bureaucracy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWGZdYNpaSo

  199. Steve has seemingly missed the truth of the Pfizer statistics in its self-aggrandizing report as explained by the New England Journal of Medicine.

    ” … the vaccine results are very promising: only 8 people out of 20,033 who received two full doses of the vaccine ended up testing positive for COVID-19.

    “And perhaps even better, ZERO out of the 805 subjects over the age 75 (who received the vaccine) tested positive for COVID.”

    “So from the roughly 20,000 participants who did NOT receive the vaccine, 162 (0.8%) tested positive for COVID-19 during the evaluation period. And THREE (1.9% of the positive tests) had ‘severe’ Covid. [see page 30 of the report]”

    So … of the 20,000+ who received the placebo — 8/10% caught the Fauci flu — and of THAT minuscule number, only 3 of them (1.9% of 8/10% = 0.000152) had a ‘severe’ case.

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/12/15/why-the-number-3-may-make-you-rethink-covid-hysteria/

    • Agree: Travis
  200. @Dr. DoomNGloom
    "Botched", there's an interesting word. Democrat elites brainwashed their base into thinking that Trump "botched" the pandemic. In truth, he quite literally saved the world.
    It's pretty clear from circumstantial evidence that he set an outrageous goal, provided the resources, and removed barriers. That last part, accomplished with his typical tact, made a lot of enemies and may have cost him the election.

    Al Gore gets a lot of mocking for "inventing the internet". Of course he didn't, any more than Kennedy invented the Saturn V. But let's give leadership credit where credit is due . Do we get a Christmas vaccine with President Hillary?

    Replies: @peterike, @Chrisnonymous

    For those not in the know, can you explain or provide a link that explains how Trump facilitated the vaccine?

    • Replies: @Dr. DoomNGloom
    @Chrisnonymous

    Casual web searches find lots of hits. My take is that he thought this a low risk high reward strategy. He provided a lot more resources and capital than I thought it was worth, but he won the roll of those dice.

    here is one from april and an unfriendly, but not demented, site.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/trump-s-operation-warp-speed-aims-to-rush-coronavirus-vaccine

    It's been going on for a while. Here's one from August in which Trump sounds precient about foot dragging till after Nov 3.

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/513443-trump-turns-up-pressure-on-fda

    He was clearly hedging bets
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/trump-wants-fda-to-move-as-quickly-as-they-can-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-approval.html

    Trump pressuring FDA is the narrative from hostile media
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/03/politics/white-house-fda-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

    I can't find a link, but after it was over, he had the FDA hold a special meeting for final go ahead for use. The stories I read said it wouldn't affect the actual delivery time because everything was tied up in the supply chain. The narrative was pretty consistent, everyone says "what your hurry", and "you should be spending more time on x,y,z" as Trump bully's, blusters, and arm-twists others to pick up the pace.

    It's as if he had a lot of experience wrangling cats on high cost projects.

  201. @prime noticer
    i won't be taking any of these RNA vaccines no matter what. this isn't tuberculosis. this isn't polio.

    do those people in Australia now test positive for HIV forever?

    some authorities already want the VACCINATED people to continue to wear a mask and stay at home doing nothing. fuck that and fuck them.

    and this virus definitely did not kill 300,000 people here. it is real and it is dangerous. to old people and fat people. old people and fat africans and fat mexicans can sometimes die from it. which is being used to exaggerate how many people died from it so the bad guys can take total control of the country. a 3 to 1 exaggeration factor is realistic.

    Replies: @Adam Smith

    some authorities already want the VACCINATED people to continue to wear a mask and stay at home doing nothing. fuck that and fuck them.

    Recently vaccinated people often spread disease and should quarantine for about a month.

    I otherwise completely agree with your comment.

  202. @That Would Be Telling
    @Achmed E. Newman


    Seriously though, I’m not going to be cowed with these threats like, “just cooperate, and they won’t have an excuse to clamp down harder.”
     
    That's not a threat, it's a prediction about how your current behavior is idiotically playing right into their hands.

    Perhaps a wrong one, they could just go for preventing you from doing a host of things, ultimately exiting your property or stepping outside your door if in an apartment or the like, if you refuse to take any of the vaccine options unless they all have contraindications for you.

    I don't know how these people's minds work, I don't know what political power they're going to be able to amass, their clown show in handling COVID-19 in the US from Trump on down has squandered an unimaginable amount of political capital. Which is why I'm thinking, without any evidence they're that smart, that they just might take this more clever approach, especially if they get their fingers burnt trying forceful ones. Or they could do both....

    And I repeat, in the meanwhile, the Right and the Republicans (not at all the same thing) are losing a constituency they require to win elections. I suppose in light of that, the prospect of voting becoming meaningless is not such a big deal if you're on the Right or a Republican....

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross

    I didn’t mean that it was a threat from YOU, TWBT. It’s an implied threat from Government and can be about anything. I meant to add this re: the compliant people in the TSA lines. This country is not supposed to be a Kindergarten.

    “See, now we said ‘let a thousand flowers bloom’. You people took WAY too much advantage of this program. We will now implement the 100 riding lawnmowers program.” The only thing Chairman Butcher Mao got right was “power comes out of the barrel of a gum.”

    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    @Achmed E. Newman

    https://images.artwanted.com/large/58/34812_1180258.jpg

    The compliant people in the TSA lines and everywhere else. The GreatCoronaPanic of 2020 has really brought the authoritarianism and ridiculousness to a new level.

    Should I go long on these?

    https://www.elitecme.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/rhinovirus900x500.jpg

  203. @Robert Dolan
    Covid is a hoax, a psychological operation, a scam.

    It is not dangerous unless you are 80 years old and dying anyway.

    The overall death rate is .2%, about the same as the flu.

    Even for the most vulnerable old people category the death rate is still only 4%.

    Covid poses zero risk for young people.

    The total number of deaths has not increased, while the death rates for heart attacks, flu, etc., have disappeared, indicating that dying with Covid has replaced a long list of normal causes of death.

    In other words, they are LYING on the death certificates because hospitals are getting paid for every covid diagnosis.

    At this point I believe the whole thing was planned and deliberate....used to get rid of Trump, push mail in ballots to enable fraud, etc.

    Also the virus has been used to rob people of their liberty.

    God knows what kind of dangers lurk in an untested vaccine.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    • Agree: Adam Smith

    At this point I believe the whole thing was planned and deliberate….used to get rid of Trump, push mail in ballots to enable fraud, etc.

    It was also used as a cover for the planned reset of the already imploding economy.

  204. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer


    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.
     
    Sure, the masks and lockdowns have stopped the spread of the respiratory disease known as seasonal influenza (caused by pathogens that in a normal year infect around 10% of the population), but have somehow had no effect at all on the respiratory disease known as COVID-19. Although we should certainly continue taking those measures, and even more stringent measures, because science.

    You are foolishly naive Steve if you think the pandemic can be ended by any rational concrete means. It serves the interests of a too many powerful interests - the people who engineered it (not the virus, but the response). It didn't bother you that the propaganda (We're all in this together, six feet apart!, Stay Home, Stay Safe!, Frontline Heros!) started belching forth from the World's viewscreens as if on cue? A whole carefully crafted and coordinated PR campaign ready to go from Day One, as soon as somebody or somebodies flipped that switch?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Rockford Tyson

    It serves the interests of a too many powerful interests – the people who engineered it (not the virus, but the response).

    This is definitely an issue, as is the related issue of the elites not being affected in the same way as everyone else (can do their jobs online from home, etc)…

    It didn’t bother you that the propaganda (We’re all in this together, six feet apart!, Stay Home, Stay Safe!, Frontline Heros!) started belching forth from the World’s viewscreens as if on cue? A whole carefully crafted and coordinated PR campaign ready to go from Day One, as soon as somebody or somebodies flipped that switch?

    …however, this is not right. We have all lived through this together, so people should be able to remember how things developed only a few months ago, and there was not a uniform response that was rolled out by TPTB. The propaganda was a hodgepodge that developed organically over time and has differed somewhat based on locality. As someone who was travelling to NY from from Asia just as things were getting bad in NYC, I was in contact with my local health department and experienced the developing response firsthand as they kept contacting me with new news as New York government was meeting and developing its response plans. The response is actually a strong argument that the pandemic was an accident and not a plan, despite the danger it poses to civil liberties.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Chrisnonymous

    Right, the Establishment's response was all over the map. There was no Master Plan. They had no clue what to do.

    Replies: @Pat Hannagan, @utu

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Chrisnonymous


    The propaganda was a hodgepodge that developed organically over time and has differed somewhat based on locality.
     
    No, that isn't what I saw. I saw PSA's and slogans rolled out almost immediately. Within about a week, commercial advertising was reflecting the "New Normal". Within just a couple of weeks, a global all-network program was put on with an army of celebrities - Elton John, Lady GaGa, Bill Gates, etc. Then there was the global phenomenon, within days or at most a week or two, of people standing on their balconies banging pots and pans to honor "front line workers" (our brave boys on the Malabar front!).

    It was not normal. It was not organic. It was planned and executed with a purpose. A purpose likely not even known to most of the people who were the public face of this campaign.

  205. @BRK
    If I was over 40 I would be more okay with taking the vaccine. But my wife and I are still hoping to have more children and the rumour in conspiracy circles is that one of the side effects of the vaccine is infertility. Conspiracy circles are making a big deal about TPTB wanting population control and Bill Gates himself being linked to the population control/eugenics movement, which struck me as a bit much, but you never know. I might have missed previous comments on this topic. What are the iSteve commenters thoughts on this? Are fears overblown or is taking the vaccine not worth the risk?

    Replies: @S. Anonyia, @Chrisnonymous

    Saw some reports that the virus infects testes and may affect sperm production, so there you go… infertile from the virus or infertile from the cure… take your pick.

  206. @Xens
    Steve, you are inadvertently hiding an important factor with your comparisons. It's the fact that this disease nearly exclusively kills the extremely elderly or very sick.

    Had covid-19 killed half as many in the US as it did (say 150K), but all children and young adults, it would be orders of magnitude more a catastrophe than even a double-covid that killed 500K+ elderly people.

    There is a reason that we spend vast amounts per death on reducing infant and childhood mortality: young healthy deaths matter more than old sick deaths. I'm sorry that the very elderly's chance of death this year went from 15% to 25%. That's no fun. But there is no prize for being the oldest guy in the nursing home either.

    Finally, remember that you only get covid once. Risks that are present for the long haul, year in and year out, win in the long run. An effective public exercise program would have saved many more lives than the masks and lockdowns.

    Replies: @Travis, @scrivener3

    well stated.

    The average age of the 300,000 deaths is now 79 years-old. We have had more deaths over the age of 80 than under the age of 75. Most young people are unaffected by CV. The majority of young people infected with CV never develop symptoms and few need any medical care to recover.

    90% of inmates who tested positive were asymptomatic in several prison studies. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX

    70% of pregnant women who tested positive were asymptomatic.
    https://www.mountsinai.org/about/newsroom/2020/majority-of-pregnant-women-who-tested-positive-for-covid19-were-asymptomatic-study-finds

    The lockdowns will kill far more young people this year than COVID. Deaths of despair have risen about 10% this year. We expect 74,000 Americans to die from drugs this year. Over the last 5 years 350,000 Americans have dies from drugs, mostly under the age of 40. No warp speed funding to fight the drug epidemic which has been growing yearly for decades.

  207. Anonymous[389] • Disclaimer says:

    What is the greater threat?

    (1) Covid

    -or-

    (2) Immigration?

    Why is Steve so focused on the former, while basically ignoring the latter?

    If Covid was such a serious threat, the powers that be would have shut the borders and shut down restaurant food preparation and service. They didn’t.

    The Covid crisis has provided the opportunity of a lifetime to end immigration. Mainly for economic reasons, but also for public health reasons.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @Anonymous

    Fear turns people into fools.

    It’s a cliche at this point but Walmart and Amazon = ok. But your local retailer = ‘rona scare!

    Grocery stores are ok, but restaurants are not. Unless you get carryout or your bartender has a hanky on her face.

    BLM rallies = kosher. Republican rallies = superspreaders!

    Your beloved mother dies = zoom call funeral! Black congressman or crack head dies = multi state funeral tour!

    It’s amazing how many idiots, especially around here, but into this nonsense. The same people telling you George Floyd was the next SCOTUS Justice are the same ones telling you not to work, keep your kids out of school and wear a mask. How absolutely dumb do you have to be to believe them? About anything?

  208. Kind of iStevey and plaguey:

    “Daddy, why are there wood boards over all the store windows?” my eight-year-old daughter Evan asked as our family walked our dog along Venice Boulevard. Two-and-a-half months into the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, the streets were quiet, as a curfew was in place. Stores all over Los Angeles were being boarded up after looting had followed a peaceful Black Lives Matter protest in nearby Santa Monica the day before.

    “Well, the store owners have decided to cover the windows just in case,” my wife said. Before Evan could say “in case of what?” I interjected with, “Because people get scared when Black people demand things.”

    https://variety.com/2020/tv/features/heroes-leonard-roberts-ali-larter-1234854439/

    It reminds of the South Park episode on Scientology:
    my eight year old wants to know why windows are boarded up
    covid got us all in the closet
    white people like their windows so damn much
    they scared of a few questions
    SO THEN I PULLED PUT MY GUN

  209. @That Would Be Telling
    @Achmed E. Newman


    Seriously though, I’m not going to be cowed with these threats like, “just cooperate, and they won’t have an excuse to clamp down harder.”
     
    That's not a threat, it's a prediction about how your current behavior is idiotically playing right into their hands.

    Perhaps a wrong one, they could just go for preventing you from doing a host of things, ultimately exiting your property or stepping outside your door if in an apartment or the like, if you refuse to take any of the vaccine options unless they all have contraindications for you.

    I don't know how these people's minds work, I don't know what political power they're going to be able to amass, their clown show in handling COVID-19 in the US from Trump on down has squandered an unimaginable amount of political capital. Which is why I'm thinking, without any evidence they're that smart, that they just might take this more clever approach, especially if they get their fingers burnt trying forceful ones. Or they could do both....

    And I repeat, in the meanwhile, the Right and the Republicans (not at all the same thing) are losing a constituency they require to win elections. I suppose in light of that, the prospect of voting becoming meaningless is not such a big deal if you're on the Right or a Republican....

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @J.Ross

    >republicans
    >winning elections
    No longer possible or apparently desired. Could be doable if we imposed the deSantis rules everywhere. I haven’t heard that proposed by any officeholder. Elections are as fake as medicine.

  210. Steve Sailer:

    “As I’ve mentioned before, when I had cancer in 1997, it was common for nonsmoking acquaintances to ask my wife, “That’s so sad—by the way, so…Steve…smokes, right?” When told that I didn’t, that I had apparently just come down with cancer due to random bad luck, they’d go away looking thoughtful and gloomy. They had wanted to believe that I must have had it coming for something that I did that they wouldn’t do, which meant that they didn’t deserve to die, and, to a rough approximation, that therefore they would never die.”

    This one of the dumbest things I have read in my life. So smoking is the only cause of cancer? Of course it’s not. For instance, the cause of intestinal cancer are mostly nitrates and heterocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in charcoaled meat. The primary cause of bone marrow cancer is toluene and benzene exposure. The primary cause of oral cancr is the HPV virus, and so forth.

    So, yes, someone who was never a smoker and got cancer “could have it coming” depending on the type of cancer. Even when it comes to lung cancer, cigarette smoking is not the only cause. Asbestos exposure is also a significant cause of cancer.

    In general, we can say that non-smokers have lower rates of cancer than smokers. Vegetarians have lower risk of cancer than meat eaters, especially those that eat canned meats and sausages.

  211. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Dr. X

    I hope you're wrong, but I fear you might be right.

    Replies: @wren

    Here’s something OT for you and Steve:

    If the Georgia Bureau of Investigations guy investigating the mysterious crash (which looked like Michael Hasting’s crash?) really committed suicide on Monday, there is something odd going on.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @wren

    That's very interesting!

  212. They still do not have a reliable diagnostic tool to determine infection,
    yet they have a “reliable” vaccine? Cognitive Dissonance.

    The CDC’s symptoms for COVID are equivalent to the CDC’s symptoms for the flu.

    This long running current event has naught to do with Health.

    War by other means.

    Sanctions on Individual Citizens by every nation in goose marching lock step.

  213. @res
    @Steve Sailer

    I tend to think you are right, but am curious about That Would Be Telling's response.

    For those who don't see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 - 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 - 3. Countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID-19 (lockdowns, masks, etc.) are likely to reduce the effective R of the flu below 1 at which point it stops spreading freely (there might still be occasional cases).

    It is also worth looking at the CDC flu tracker data from March-April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @utu, @Polynikes, @Hypnotoad666, @danand

    Masks don’t prevent the flu. Decades of research back that up.

    And lockdowns didn’t drop the spread of covid. If anything the opposite since the main mode of transmission is in the home.

    But other than that I believe the CDC propaganda.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Polynikes


    Masks don’t prevent the flu. Decades of research back that up.

     

    In a technical sense, this may well be accurate, i.e. a typical surgical mask really doesn't stop individual viruses.

    But in practical terms, Hong Kong's response to COVID back in January is a good case study. Because of SARS here in 2003, once COVID hit the news in late January, nearly everyone in HK immediately starting wearing masks in public. Not coincidentally, I guess, the seasonal flu here simply ended. It was effectively eliminated within weeks, right at the point of the year at which it normally peaks.

    At this point, I honestly wish this weren't true -- it's given the HK government the impression that all viral outbreaks, including COVID, are 'beatable' via intensive social distancing and mask mandating, to the point that quality of life here has become much, much worse even though COVID cases/deaths here are still pretty low.

    Replies: @Polynikes, @utu

  214. My view, though, is that it’s time to get the damn pandemic over and done with.

    Must this misanthrope’s paradise really be drawn to a close so soon? Can’t we spare any consideration for the disagreeable and antisocial, so long oppressed by the tyranny of the cheerful and gregarious? I’ve never enjoyed walks through the city so much. (Admittedly, having already survived this dreaded lurgy with no ill effects I am perhaps no impartial judge.)

    Alright, fine- I am not so misanthropic as to be without fear and worry for my elderly and sickly kin, but once they’re safe, I shall always remember these days fondly.

    • Agree: utu
  215. @Guy De Champlagne
    We should want life to go back to the way it was before, and the faster the better.

    We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. The countries that were hardest hit by SARS are the countries that were the best prepared for COVID because they did just that. It would be a huge mistake and a great tragedy to just go back to normal, learn absolutely nothing, and comfort ourselves with a bunch of just-so stories about how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography.

    Replies: @Jake, @ken, @Pop Warner, @Prester John, @Polynikes, @Rob

    We should be revoking all emergency authority from all executives to prevent the next round of society crippling measures that do nothing to stop a virus.

  216. @Chrisnonymous
    @Mr. Anon


    It serves the interests of a too many powerful interests – the people who engineered it (not the virus, but the response).
     
    This is definitely an issue, as is the related issue of the elites not being affected in the same way as everyone else (can do their jobs online from home, etc)...

    It didn’t bother you that the propaganda (We’re all in this together, six feet apart!, Stay Home, Stay Safe!, Frontline Heros!) started belching forth from the World’s viewscreens as if on cue? A whole carefully crafted and coordinated PR campaign ready to go from Day One, as soon as somebody or somebodies flipped that switch?
     
    ...however, this is not right. We have all lived through this together, so people should be able to remember how things developed only a few months ago, and there was not a uniform response that was rolled out by TPTB. The propaganda was a hodgepodge that developed organically over time and has differed somewhat based on locality. As someone who was travelling to NY from from Asia just as things were getting bad in NYC, I was in contact with my local health department and experienced the developing response firsthand as they kept contacting me with new news as New York government was meeting and developing its response plans. The response is actually a strong argument that the pandemic was an accident and not a plan, despite the danger it poses to civil liberties.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mr. Anon

    Right, the Establishment’s response was all over the map. There was no Master Plan. They had no clue what to do.

    • Replies: @Pat Hannagan
    @Steve Sailer

    That's a basic misunderstanding of "conspiracy theory" or what constitutes a conspiracy.

    This is an open conspiracy where media and politicians are watching for instructions from world bodies as to what the response should be. It's not a well oiled machine with everyone up to speed on every minute detail.

    Think of it like an enterprise level project where there are multiple teams each working on their own specific part of an overall implementation, like the completion of an ocean liner for example. Those at the top of the cruise line have their plans, goals and agendas and put their projects into motion but each sub-contractor is not engaged knowing the ultimate goal other than their own part of the project and that's all they need and want to know.

    Think about how all western governments send their politicians and bureaucrats every year to all sort of international conferences where policy responses are promulgated. And no Western government acts in their own strictly national interest - national interest in the pre world war II sense of the term.

    It's all being played out in the open: https://www.weforum.org/great-reset

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/10/12/klaus-schwab-his-great-fascist-reset/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuDQ_3g53qc

    Replies: @J.Ross

    , @utu
    @Steve Sailer

    Obviously there was no Master Plan. The question is why they were all over the map. I am pretty sure they have all kinds of ready to use plans for different epidemic scenarios. All it takes is to go to right filing cabinet somewhere in Pentagon or Homeland Security. Is it possible that our establishment was subjected to disinformation to confuse and delay their response? Is it possible there are moles in the establishment that were sabotaging constructive attempts? Why the alternative of doing nothing as oppose of doing something was even put on the table? Who was behind the do nothing herd immunity meme?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @That Would Be Telling

  217. @J.Ross
    @davidgmillsatty

    ... because of all the Chinese there. Italy built Chinese sweatshops and shipped the slaves in to be able to have a "Made In Italy" label.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Nah, Bergamo doesn’t have many Chinese immigrants.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @Steve Sailer

    If anything, the grunt work is done outside the country.

    I have purchased wonderful "Italian" leather goods in Romania, where they are actually made. My wife and I wear them with pleasure -- at one-tenth the cost.

    My point is this: Whatever you think about Italian leather products, they might not even come (really) from Italy, although they might be shipped from there.

    Because, you see, even those poor Romanian people are used and abused like cheap labor, just like those Chinese people.

    You know, Steve, even today I wore, around my Connecticut town, my "Italian leather" coat that I bought in Romania. It has the Italian designer label. Others paid ten times what I did.

    The point is... Oh, I don't know. Just that nothing is what it seems.

  218. @Bill Jones
    @Anon

    I know a couple of morbid people.
    Neither of them is dead.When they are, they'll be proved to have been wrong: things could get worse.

    Replies: @Anon

    I know a couple of morbid people.
    Neither of them is dead.When they are, they’ll be proved to have been wrong: things could get worse.

    Perhaps they’re moribund, and are living the moribundant life.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1955/10/01/the-moribundant-life-or-grow-along-with-whom

  219. @Achmed E. Newman
    @That Would Be Telling

    I didn't mean that it was a threat from YOU, TWBT. It's an implied threat from Government and can be about anything. I meant to add this re: the compliant people in the TSA lines. This country is not supposed to be a Kindergarten.

    "See, now we said 'let a thousand flowers bloom'. You people took WAY too much advantage of this program. We will now implement the 100 riding lawnmowers program." The only thing Chairman Butcher Mao got right was "power comes out of the barrel of a gum."

    Replies: @Adam Smith

    The compliant people in the TSA lines and everywhere else. The GreatCoronaPanic of 2020 has really brought the authoritarianism and ridiculousness to a new level.

    Should I go long on these?

  220. @epebble
    @Anonymous

    I lived in San Diego area for 15 years. This has never happened before. This is happening in many places, especially in the interior of the country and rural areas with smaller facilities. This can increase death rates for patients without Covid too.

    Ambulances turned away as hospital emergency rooms overwhelmed


    County hospital association reaches out to state for staffing help

    By PAUL SISSON DEC. 15, 2020 11:14 AM

    Severe impacts on local emergency departments have forced paramedics to wait for hours before they can deliver their patients, prompting unprecedented changes to San Diego County ambulance bypass procedures Tuesday.

    The change came as intensive care capacity across the state continued to dwindle, prompting local hospitals to reach out to Sacramento for staffing help even as the first batches of vaccine began to arrive
     
    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-12-15/governor-says-covid-19-deaths-have-activated-a-grim-supply-chain

    Replies: @Polynikes

    It happens every year. Search 2018 flu hospitals overrun.

    And staffing is a manmade issue as their holding out non symptomatic positive tested staff. Something they don’t do for the flu or any other diseases.

  221. You have turned into a pathetic douche

  222. @Anon
    Steve, I mostly agree with your criticism of the anti-vaxxers. Yes, there are some unknowns regarding a new vaccine, but it's funny that people who are dismissive of the virus itself get so worked up about potential vaccine side effects. There's some inconsistency there. I don't want to live in a country where the government forces people to get this vaccine, but a widespread lack of common sense about this could make that outcome more likely.

    That said.....it's still not clear what your view is about the restrictions that have been and are in place. You observe that the virus is spread by, for example, church services and birthday parties. So, do you support the huge restrictions that have been placed on these things? Commenters have pointed out that dozens of millions of young people, who are at virtually no risk, have been living in virtual house arrest for much of the past year. Do you support that?

    Yes, many people are taking precautions voluntarily, so it was inevitable that movie theaters were in for a bad year regardless of the decisions of government. But there was no fundamental law of physics requiring that the government respond to the virus in this way. Governments in the past generally didn't, even when faced with worse infectious diseases than we're faced with.

    I give you credit for posting comments from the rude commenters who've been insulting you. But I think people are frustrated that, like so many in public life this year, you seem to focus solely on the reduction of death. For example, your concession to the trade-off argument is that some people are missing cancer screenings- i.e. increasing the likelihood of a different cause of death.

    It's hard to overstate how massive and unprecedented have been the changes put in place this year. There is a real sense in which we no longer live in a free country. There are huge non-health-related costs being imposed on huge numbers of people. I was banned from going to church for several months this year, and now I have to sign up on a list to go. Previous generations of Americans would have considered that insane. Didn't we use to think that there are things worse than dying? Apparently not anymore.

    Replies: @stealth, @Redman

    It’s not hard to understand. If you think the Corona Virus was overhyped and used by governments to institute totalitarian measures, why would you think the supported government cure is any more worthy of acceptance.

    I’m not an anti-Vaxxer (whatever that overly reductive term is supposed to mean). But I still think this vaccine seems odd. Covid isn’t the plague. That’s why we’re still arguing about it. It’s not polio. It doesn’t kill healthy people.

    This represents a massive shift in social paradigms. We are now officially obsessed with health and trying to live forever. Even when nature says we’ve lived long enough. It’s a form of decadence. Other poorer societies who envy our wealth are taking notes. You can depend on it.

    • Thanks: William Badwhite
  223. @Steve Sailer
    @J.Ross

    Nah, Bergamo doesn't have many Chinese immigrants.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    If anything, the grunt work is done outside the country.

    I have purchased wonderful “Italian” leather goods in Romania, where they are actually made. My wife and I wear them with pleasure — at one-tenth the cost.

    My point is this: Whatever you think about Italian leather products, they might not even come (really) from Italy, although they might be shipped from there.

    Because, you see, even those poor Romanian people are used and abused like cheap labor, just like those Chinese people.

    You know, Steve, even today I wore, around my Connecticut town, my “Italian leather” coat that I bought in Romania. It has the Italian designer label. Others paid ten times what I did.

    The point is… Oh, I don’t know. Just that nothing is what it seems.

  224. @Reg Cæsar
    https://www.bthvn2020.de/fileadmin/user_upload/banner_website.JPG


    https://www.bthvn2020.de/en/



    https://wp-cpr.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2019/06/peanuts_btvn_bust_1951.jpg

    Replies: @Known Fact, @MEH 0910, @MEH 0910, @Bardon Kaldian, @Father O'Hara, @Menes, @MEH 0910

    Hey pal,Black History Month is February!🙄

  225. @Kyle
    @That Would Be Telling

    “Whereas by law all positive COVID-19 tests must be reported to the authorities.“

    I’d wager a good chunk of people who contracted covid denied it to themselves, didn’t go to the doctor, didn’t tell anyone, and “soldiered on” as the English like to say. It’s an extremely american ethos. How should we go about rounding up those people and punishing them?

    Replies: @Cloudbuster

    I’d wager a good chunk of people who contracted covid denied it to themselves, didn’t go to the doctor, didn’t tell anyone, and “soldiered on” as the English like to say.

    That’s my plan. Maybe I’ll take Ivermectin, too.

  226. @stealth
    @Anon

    Nobody believes in the supernatural anymore, so people really really don’t want to die.

    Replies: @Anon

    Right, one description of 2020 could be “Nietzsche’s Last Men handle a crisis”.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Anon

    I have definitely not been noticing the Übermensch this year...

  227. @Dago Shoes
    Steve is really into the propaganda about this … and, somewhat tellingly, he cites the FDA papers which are just the Pfizer and Moderna studies available at the FDA's web site.

    More to the point, the New England Journal Of Medicine's reading and explaining of the Pfizer study puts things much more clearly … and pulls back the curtain a bit and lets US see the truth behind all of the gobbledygook … which is that 162 people (8/10%) of the 20,000+ folks given the placebo actually came down with the Fauci flu (even some folks WITH the vaccine came down with it) … and of those on the placebo who came down with the Fauci flu, an infinitesimally small percentage actually were sick enough to require hospitalization (numerous comorbidities).

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Steve is really into the propaganda about this … and, somewhat tellingly, he cites the FDA papers which are just the Pfizer and Moderna studies available at the FDA’s web site.

    Not even close, there’s one briefing by the “sponsor,” Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna (go to “Event Materials”), and another from FDA staff who’ve studied the former and a lot more, they’re so crazy serious they visit manufacturing facilities. I continue to be amazed about how little people know about how the FDA works, even when it can be trivially looked up.

    More to the point, the New England Journal Of Medicine’s reading and explaining of the Pfizer study puts things much more clearly … and pulls back the curtain a bit and lets US see the truth behind all of the gobbledygook … which is that 162 people (8/10%) of the 20,000+ folks given the placebo actually came down with the Fauci flu (even some folks WITH the vaccine came down with it) … and of those on the placebo who came down with the Fauci flu, an infinitesimally small percentage actually were sick enough to require hospitalization (numerous comorbidities).

    Ummn, yes? We’ve been discussing these exact numbers, which are in no way a secret, here on iSteve for some time. Old numbers now, Pfizer submitted its FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) application on November 20th, they now have almost a month’s more data, in a period where a lot more people are coming down with COVID-19. Another three months maybe and they might be ready to try for full FDA licensure, although unusually based on that EUA tens of millions will get dosed in Phase IV “post-marketing,” and there will be tremendously more data than a mere Phase III trial can produce.

    Moderna’s numbers are more interesting, they are said to have enrolled a lot more elderly, and had 30 serious cases as of their November 30th EUA application, all on the placebo “arm” of their Phase III study. As I recall, the FDA was initially saying that for trials of this size, around 32 or so cases are where you just begin to get statistical significance.

  228. @Steve Sailer
    @Chrisnonymous

    Right, the Establishment's response was all over the map. There was no Master Plan. They had no clue what to do.

    Replies: @Pat Hannagan, @utu

    That’s a basic misunderstanding of “conspiracy theory” or what constitutes a conspiracy.

    This is an open conspiracy where media and politicians are watching for instructions from world bodies as to what the response should be. It’s not a well oiled machine with everyone up to speed on every minute detail.

    Think of it like an enterprise level project where there are multiple teams each working on their own specific part of an overall implementation, like the completion of an ocean liner for example. Those at the top of the cruise line have their plans, goals and agendas and put their projects into motion but each sub-contractor is not engaged knowing the ultimate goal other than their own part of the project and that’s all they need and want to know.

    Think about how all western governments send their politicians and bureaucrats every year to all sort of international conferences where policy responses are promulgated. And no Western government acts in their own strictly national interest – national interest in the pre world war II sense of the term.

    It’s all being played out in the open: https://www.weforum.org/great-reset

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/10/12/klaus-schwab-his-great-fascist-reset/

    • Thanks: Mike Tre
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Pat Hannagan

    Steve probably hasn't seen that one WEF slide with the smiling Semite and the words "you'll own nothing, and you'll be happy."

  229. This assumes, of course, that the Corona Virus hysteria was not merely yet another symptom, but the actual problem.

    Given Black Bullshit Matters, The Gender-creative Child,, Trump derangement, Antifa, and the wholesale self-policing of our media, I’ m skeptical.

    Make the Corona Virus go away, and we’ll just invent something else. We’ve collectively lost our minds.

  230. @Dutch Boy
    @MB

    Pharma's liability has already been waived:
    " If you are injured by a pandemic vaccine, you cannot sue any of the parties involved in getting the vaccine to you. Within one year of vaccination, you would have to file a claim with the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP), run by the Department of Health and Human Services, which is also sponsoring the COVID-19 vaccination program
    The maximum CICP payout is $250,000 per person; however, you’d have to exhaust your private insurance policy first. CICP will only pay the difference between what your insurance covers and the total CICP payout amount established for your case."
    https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/12/14/covid-19-vaccine-cicp.aspx

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    On the new CICP “vaccine court” for COVID-19 “Countermeasures”: governments are cheap, ours doesn’t want to pay 10 to 100 times as much for these countermeasures including vaccines that would be required if they were to be subject to our totally insane civil law system. See the children’s vaccine court established in 1988 when pertussis (whooping cough) vaccine was becoming unobtanium.

    There’s also the sad fact that no matter what you do, when you give vaccines to tens of millions of people, you will absolutely positively maim and kill a few of them. That’s just how things work with our wild and crazy, but usually in a good way, immune systems.

    Or take your chances with an uncontrolled zillions of your cells infected wild type virus infection, nature doesn’t care how you get immunized, or die and make that irrelevant.

    • Replies: @Dutch Boy
    @That Would Be Telling

    We don't yet know how many will be harmed by the new vaccines. Keep your fingers crossed. BTW, the DPT disaster was caused by the use of whole cell DTP in the USA even though a much safer DTaP was available and used in Japan. Lobbying by parents finally caused the USA to switch to DTaP in the 80s after ten years of effort.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  231. @vinteuil
    @Dr. X


    The last thing the powers-that-be want is to “get the damn pandemic over and done with.” It’s given them previously undreamed-of powers — the power to shutter business at will, the power to simply print money and give it away to the entire nation, the power to suspend gun sales, the power to force mass social compliance in dress and behavior, the power to borrow $3 trillion in a single year, the power to shut down travel without proof of immunity, the power of governors to act as literal dictators, the power to close churches, the power to contract-trace, the power to print millions of mail-in ballots that were then used to rig the election… and coming soon, the power to compel the masses to take what is basically an experimental vaccine that was rushed through the normal approval process...They’re going to keep the crisis mentality going forever now that they have established that they can get away with it.
     
    Precisely so.

    I spent a couple of years as an intern in the bioethics department at the National Institutes of Health. My immediate bosses were Zeke Emanuel & Christine Grady (aka Mrs. Anthony Fauci).

    We all really need to understand what guys like Zeke Emanuel & Anthony Fauci are like. They are not like you or me. They are high on power. They live for control - total control over every aspect of everyone's life, everywhere & forever.

    For them, the expansion of government power is not an unfortunate necessity in a time of emergency. It is the realization of all their fondest dreams.

    And, with the "election" of Biden/Harris, they are now in the position to ensure that we'll never, ever, be "over and done" with the present state of emergency.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Abolish_public_education

    I am so sick and tired of seeing government bureaucrats marry one another.

    Wiki informs that this bureaucratic, “power” couple has three kids. I’m guessing that their children were sent to private schools.

    A voucher system.

  232. @MEH 0910
    @Reg Cæsar

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1338660070121463813

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    I haven’t seen many Woke takes on Beethoven this week. Back in September there were a lot of them, but I guess we laughed them out of fashion.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @Steve Sailer


    I haven’t seen many Woke takes on Beethoven this week.
     
    Dude, just look at the picture! He's got friggin Rainbow HAIR fer chrissakes
  233. @That Would Be Telling
    @unit472


    Herd immunity is a wonderful objective but is there any evidence it even exists? Was small pox overcome because of ‘herd immunity? The ‘Black Death ,or did survivors become so few and far between that those viruses just ran out of new hosts… until the next outbreak?
     
    Herd immunity only makes sense in the context of what herd you're talking about. Smallpox was effectively eradicated from the US long before it was from the entire earth, and that's because imported smallpox cases hit a wall of immune hosts, although I would not be surprise to learn there was some transmission. The last known cases of smallpox are illuminating, in 1978 a not understood lab release in the U.K. infected a photographer who used a darkroom below that lab, despite a 1966 inoculation she got it and died. Her mother contracted "a very minor" case, no known other cases, but we might assume some people got exposed throughout the process and were fully protected by the vaccinations.

    The Black Death is caused by a bacteria, initial route is from rodent reservoirs (don't get too friendly with them in the western US, where the last plague pandemic ended up due to, as usual, it coming from mainland China), normally with an anthropoid vector like fleas. But that bubonic plague can then get into the blood, and at worst case for public health, the lungs, upon which it can spread like wildfire. I'm pretty sure not enough people ever got it that herd immunity would ever become a factor.

    Measles would be a good virus to study, much, much more transmissible than most anything else we vaccinate against, with the anti-vaxxers, certain special populations, and foreign sources breaking down the herd immunity that was achieved at great effort.

    So for COVID-19 today, at most you should shoot for herd immunity in particular nations, particularly important for a country like the US that this side of the counter-revolution has almost totally open borders, there will always been immigrants and visitors bringing it back here. By and large I wouldn't spend much time thinking about it today, after enough people get these new vaccines under FDA Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) the attitudes towards them might change, and it'll be some months before everyone who wants them today can get them. As it is, COVID-19 instantly became part of our cold civil war, is now to the point an insane tribal and political thing, and a great fraction of the Right is proving the Left was right about them, claiming a right to infect others as they please.

    Replies: @danand, @anon

    “Measles would be a good virus to study, much, much more transmissible than most anything else we vaccinate against…”

    That Would Be Telling, interesting comment. Measles immunity has proven over the years to be robust.

    Can’t recall where I came across this, but tabled are a few diseases for which vaccines have been developed. It gives estimates for antibody half-life based off, as I recall, a couple decades worth of subject sampling, that was then extrapolated.

    Immu

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @res
    @danand

    Thanks. It looks like this 2007 paper is the source.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5858106_Duration_of_Humoral_Immunity_to_Common_Viral_and_Vaccine_Antigens

  234. @AndrewR
    @Redneck farmer

    In the 2030s? Awfully specific. Do you know something we don't?

    Replies: @Dago Shoes, @Redneck farmer

    Just seems every 10 to 20 years something nasty occurs/comes out of China. So another really nasty disease outbreak in the 2030s sounds about right.

  235. Anonymous[316] • Disclaimer says:

    This is a good columnn, Steve.

    I look forward to when the vaccines are rolled out, we can take them, and then get on with life.

    In the meantime, what a wasted opportunity the virus was for the right to get on board with elimination for a couple of years and use it as a reason to limit immigration at least for a while.

    It is also sad that those in the USA (and probably in some countries in Europe) didn’t even use this as a way to practice successful techniques to reduce transmission of a respiratory pathogen. Maybe the next time there is a more severe pathogen that is about as transmissible but is harder to develop a vaccine for.

    Instead, the response is “don’t tread on me”, which I get and love when it comes to say, warding off the (((communists))), but is not the best public health response. But I guess there is a history there with botched response to HIV from the left. (“Oh noes, not my homorinos!”)

    COVID was also an opportunity for Trump to be the man of the hour in a pandemic and win re-election, which sadly, was also botched.

  236. @S. Anonyia
    @BRK

    Same. I would be all for taking it...but I’m only 30. The chances of me dying of COVID are way slimmer than having a random heart attack or stroke. I think Great Britain is recommending women planning to get pregnant within 3 months not take the vaccine initially. That’s probably where the rumors of infertility are coming from.

    Hopefully I’m last in line so I can observe what the actual effects are, but I think my job will require it by Spring or Summer.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘…Hopefully I’m last in line so I can observe what the actual effects are, but I think my job will require it by Spring or Summer.’

    One of the ironies here is that us cantankerous old bastards who are already retired will prove to be one of the groups best able to refuse to take the vaccine.

    …never mind that we’re about the only group who would be even theoretically likely to benefit from it.

  237. @Xens
    Steve, you are inadvertently hiding an important factor with your comparisons. It's the fact that this disease nearly exclusively kills the extremely elderly or very sick.

    Had covid-19 killed half as many in the US as it did (say 150K), but all children and young adults, it would be orders of magnitude more a catastrophe than even a double-covid that killed 500K+ elderly people.

    There is a reason that we spend vast amounts per death on reducing infant and childhood mortality: young healthy deaths matter more than old sick deaths. I'm sorry that the very elderly's chance of death this year went from 15% to 25%. That's no fun. But there is no prize for being the oldest guy in the nursing home either.

    Finally, remember that you only get covid once. Risks that are present for the long haul, year in and year out, win in the long run. An effective public exercise program would have saved many more lives than the masks and lockdowns.

    Replies: @Travis, @scrivener3

    An effective public exercise program would have saved many more lives than the masks and lockdowns.

    Could an American write this? What could it possibly mean? I have an idea, a locked belt with a heart monitor and taiser built in. If you dont manage 85% of your maximum heart rate for 60 minutes a day four days a week you get tased one time per hour for the next 12 hours. That’ll teach you.

    Or perhaps you mean public health announcements sent to smart phones that you have to acknowledge before opening any app.

    Would change nothing except make using your phone less enjoyable.

  238. @International Jew
    Great piece, but especially these two blow-my-socks-off brilliant insights.


    it’s natural to be overconfident about a disease on the grounds that you don’t deserve to die.

     

    and

    which meant that they didn’t deserve to die, and, to a rough approximation, that therefore they would never die.
     

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    “Great piece, but especially these two blow-my-socks-off brilliant insights.”

    /Sarc, I assume? I had these insights in my late teens. Sailer seems quite pleased with himself that he discovered them in middle age after his boring brush with cancer – a boring though alarming experience many others have enjoyed, myself included. I never once insisted everyone else change their lives or demean and dehumanize themselves cuz I scared, though. Nauseating.

    • Troll: Jack D
  239. OT: Last night I took one for the team and watched Christopher Nolan’s new movie Tenet, all 2:30 of it. Beautifully staged and shot, spared no expense (they crashed a real 747), well acted, but it didn’t make a lick of sense.

    But then I never understood Inception, and I had to watch Memento twice to figure out just WTF was going on, so YMMV.

  240. Steve, it is not 1989 any more. We know for a fact that the CCP has spies and representatives in every major country, and every organization inside every major country: banks, police forces, national police forces, government ministries, news organizations, scientific bodies, universities, companies, etc. The penetration and control is near total and absolute.

    Now ask yourself, do you trust a vaccine that the CHINESE are not taking, and doubtless have spiked with all sorts of goodies? Things to create infertility, cancer, and the like?

    After all, it has been official Chinese policy to want to take control of North America for resources. No different than Imperial Japan’s strategy, that of Hitler, and many others going back to the first empires in Babylonia.

    The Great Reset is part and parcel of the lockdowns, and it is designed to forbid Westerners their own resources so that food and fuel can be shipped to CHINA. So Xi buys social peace in the face of ever tightening controls with more food, that is cheaper, and more fuel, that is cheaper. Its a small planet so for Chinese to live better Americans and Westerners have to eat bugs and drink sewage water. The Oligarchs are totally dependent on the Chinese so that’s why they had to get rid of Trump.

    The lockdowns will NEVER end, as they provide the means to enforce the Great Reset. And like Potato Famine Ireland, export food during a famine. Enjoy your bugs Steve!

    Pfizer and Moderna are demonstrably not trustworthy as the likelihood of China doing things to it that allows them to take over North America without a shot is very high to approach 100%. Don’t forget that Apple, Wal-Mart, Amazon, Nike, and the rest cannot exist with Chinese slave labor of one sort or another. Indirectly, that’s true of Silicon Valley. Computers would cost a tremendous amount without slave labor assembly and manufacture.

    I will not be taking the vaccine, I do not trust one little bit the CCP or Pfizer or Moderna. I don’t trust Biden, or the US Government, or Woke Corporate Capital.

    Steve you may trust those guys but it just makes you a chump. A mark. An easy target. Don’t be a chump. Its not 1989.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Whiskey


    Now ask yourself, do you trust a vaccine that the CHINESE are not taking
     
    "Coronavirus: China set for 100 million doses of BioNTech vaccine amid roll-out of shots overseas."

    Of course, this means nothing if you think the CCP has such complete control of the US that they can spike these mRNA vaccines with lethal stuff, without anyone noticing through trivial examination of them. One of their biggest advantages is their extreme simplicity, more so than any other vaccine excepting ones like the PRC's whole "killed" virus apparently without adjuvants!!! although I haven't confirmed that, and that info might not be available, this is stuff the CCP considered to be states secrets, their non-cooperation with the rest of the world on everything about COVID-19 is legendary, once you get past the smoke blown by the WHO which they do own.

    But if they have such complete control, they'd already be doing it with children's vaccines, a huge variety of drugs for which they provide the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), and ... have you thought about risk? You think they could avoid nuclear retaliation, or our taking out the Three Gorges Dam which could be done conventionally, which could kill tens of hundreds of millions and otherwise devastate their everything including their economy?

    I really don't think they're quite there yet, but they'll make great strides if Biden becomes President and is not quickly replaced by Team Obama's Harris.
    , @Neoconned
    @Whiskey

    Whiskey: I am not much of a listener to talk radio but stumbled onto that guy Levins show last night. As his interview guest he had on an investigative reporter who was talking about corruption in D.C. and with Mitch McConnell in particular.....

    So Mitch is married to a lady named Chou or something who was some kinda Secretary of Commerce or some such for Dubya Bush.

    Long story short her dad is a zillionaire shipping magnate who owns a majority stake in some shipping firm that ships a sizable share of the exports to the USA from China....

    I always knew both parties were in bed in various capacities with the CCP but Chows sibling sits on the board of the Central Bank of China....a comment that made Levin say ".....wait a minute....so you're telling me Mitch McConnell has a sister in law who's a CCP functionary on the CBOC?"

    Short answer: Yes.

    That's why McConnell rolled over for Biden....i hope the old Hindenberg figurehead survives for 4 years....or the CCP has a backdoor plan to coup Kamala, or something....

    I can't see her given India's long history of warfare w China being too friendly with Beijing.....only she'll be a Brahmin chauvinist.....

    Replies: @Abolish_public_education, @That Would Be Telling, @epebble

  241. @prosa123
    @utu

    Very early in the epidemic a nursing home owner in Connecticut moved some trailers onto the property and had staff members move into them. Coupled with the standard suspension of visitors this kept the virus from spreading among the patients. The catch was that the owner paid participating employees about $3,000 per month in addition to their normal salaries, something that most facilities couldn't afford.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    The catch was that the owner paid participating employees about $3,000 per month in addition to their normal salaries, something that most facilities couldn’t afford.

    But it is something the Fed can afford.

    Pocket change for QE to cover.

  242. @peterike
    @Dr. DoomNGloom


    Do we get a Christmas vaccine with President Hillary?
     
    With President Hillary we wouldn't have had a "pandemic" in the first place. Just a bad flu year.

    Replies: @Polistra

    Agreed, though that wouldn’t explain Belgium, Italy, Brazil etc.

  243. @Steve Sailer
    @MEH 0910

    I haven't seen many Woke takes on Beethoven this week. Back in September there were a lot of them, but I guess we laughed them out of fashion.

    Replies: @Polistra

    I haven’t seen many Woke takes on Beethoven this week.

    Dude, just look at the picture! He’s got friggin Rainbow HAIR fer chrissakes

  244. @Pat Hannagan
    @Steve Sailer

    That's a basic misunderstanding of "conspiracy theory" or what constitutes a conspiracy.

    This is an open conspiracy where media and politicians are watching for instructions from world bodies as to what the response should be. It's not a well oiled machine with everyone up to speed on every minute detail.

    Think of it like an enterprise level project where there are multiple teams each working on their own specific part of an overall implementation, like the completion of an ocean liner for example. Those at the top of the cruise line have their plans, goals and agendas and put their projects into motion but each sub-contractor is not engaged knowing the ultimate goal other than their own part of the project and that's all they need and want to know.

    Think about how all western governments send their politicians and bureaucrats every year to all sort of international conferences where policy responses are promulgated. And no Western government acts in their own strictly national interest - national interest in the pre world war II sense of the term.

    It's all being played out in the open: https://www.weforum.org/great-reset

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/10/12/klaus-schwab-his-great-fascist-reset/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuDQ_3g53qc

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Steve probably hasn’t seen that one WEF slide with the smiling Semite and the words “you’ll own nothing, and you’ll be happy.”

  245. @Steve Sailer
    @Chrisnonymous

    Right, the Establishment's response was all over the map. There was no Master Plan. They had no clue what to do.

    Replies: @Pat Hannagan, @utu

    Obviously there was no Master Plan. The question is why they were all over the map. I am pretty sure they have all kinds of ready to use plans for different epidemic scenarios. All it takes is to go to right filing cabinet somewhere in Pentagon or Homeland Security. Is it possible that our establishment was subjected to disinformation to confuse and delay their response? Is it possible there are moles in the establishment that were sabotaging constructive attempts? Why the alternative of doing nothing as oppose of doing something was even put on the table? Who was behind the do nothing herd immunity meme?

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @utu


    Who was behind the do nothing herd immunity meme?
     
    From the screenplay for Oliver Stone's Pandemic:

    Deep inside CIA headquarters, two officers simultaneously insert keys into a safe. John Brennan retrieves a stack of papers. Papers shown being passed from person to person until received by Joint Chiefs as they walk into the Oval Office...

    Chairman of JC: "Mr. President. Now is the time. You must follow The Plan to Nationalize Mask Production."
    Stephen Miller: "Mr. President, some Unz Review commenters don't want to wear masks. Some are even concerned about... civil liberties..."
    Chairman of JC: "Mr. President, you must listen! 10s of millions of lives are at stake!"
    Trump [looking into the distance]: "Everyone out. Now."
    [Exeunt all staff]

    Trump kneels down in middle of Oval Office. A life-size hologram of a figure in a dark, hooded cloak appears. It is Anders Tegnell, but his face is wrinkled and his body slumped over. The hood partially obscures his face.
    Trump [kneeling with head bowed]: "My master, the CIA is trying to save America with its plan."
    Tegnell: "Don't worry, my apprentice. Sweden is progressing nicely to herd immunity. Soon America will follow."
    Trump: "But my master, you clearly said before that Sweden is not trying to achieve herd immunity and that herd immunity is only a byproduct of a plan to minimize disruption to people's lives."
    Tegnell: "Yes, I said it in interviews, but the Force is strong in one. His name is... utu... he has seen through our published statements and plans... seen through to the herd immunity... Darth Trump, you must go to the press pool now. Declare that America must get back to work! Take Darth Miller with you. He can rally our legions in alternative media...Go now, before it is too late!"

    Scene change. Somewhere in East Asia a man in meditating.
    utu [eyes open suddenly]: "Master Yoda, I felt a great disturbance in the Force, like a million voices crying out and suddenly being silenced."
    Yoda: "Herd immunity you see."
    utu: "Online. I must go online. I have to save them."
    Yoda: "But your research summarizing. Incomplete it is..."
    utu: "Master Yoda, I must go!"

    Replies: @Pat Hannagan

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @utu


    I am pretty sure they have all kinds of ready to use plans for different epidemic scenarios. All it takes is to go to right filing cabinet web page somewhere in Pentagon or Homeland Security.
     
    Our base plan was the one we'd developed and iterated over for many years for the next really bad flu pandemic, and back in the first part of 2020 you could find these plans on the web with a near trivial amount of effort. The best site for the latest iterations was the CDC's. Respiratory spread virus, naive population, these were proper starting points for public health measures (whatever they might have said about clinical practice was of course wrong, but I'm not sure that was in their remit, and certainly did no harm in and of itself, instead the medical community had to learn lessons written in blood).

    From memory based on what I saved at the end of February, "Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza - United States, 2017" is a or the base plan the CDC explicitly used as their starting point for the COVID-19 plan. You'll find it all there, extensive discussion of using face masks, "bend the curve" but not using those words, etc. Of course, as the Soviets were said to say, reading our military manuals was useless because in practice our military largely ignores them, as we can see with the early and obviously bogus "masks are useless for the hoi polloi, they must be saved for us health professionals," a lie Saint Fauci eventually admitted to (he turns out to be a pathological liar).

    Is it possible that our establishment was subjected to disinformation to confuse and delay their response? Is it possible there are moles in the establishment that were sabotaging constructive attempts?
     
    I consider this an established fact. The CDC did a very poor job with their RT-PCR test, it was not robust and very few labs outside of the CDC could make it work. Then they massively screwed up the manufacturing of them with cross contamination. Due to a certain sort of emergency being declared, no one else was allowed to market tests without FDA Emergency Use Authorization "approval," which resulted in clear enemy action.

    Among many things, FDA required others' tests to be able to distinguish between COVID-19, SARS, which died out, and MERS, the ME for Middle East, it comes from camels, and there's only been two cases in the US; doing this required very scarce time working in BSL-3 labs. From January 10th to the end of February these two units of the government prevented testing for all but 4,000 people, by which time it was too late to try normal public health measures to contain COVID-19.

    Why the alternative of doing nothing as oppose of doing something was even put on the table?
     
    Floomers, people who dismissed it as nothing more than a bad, not even pandemic flu equivalent. We can see this in Trump early on when he talked so much about the flu, and among the people he consulted were businessmen who it appears gave him this "ride it out" advice.

    So think about the whole context: CDC and FDA blocking effective testing so no one knew how bad it was getting the US, Trump on down were flying blind until sometime in March at the earliest. The same seditious Deep State that had been trying to destroy Trump long before the 2016 election telling him to destroy the economy and stock market, the latter his most important economic metric (although he constantly boasted about "greatest black unemployment figures ever!!!"), that is, preemptively destroy his chance of getting reelected. Megan McCain saying his response "could be the silver bullet that takes out this administration" in early March.

    Who and what was he, with zero STEM knowledge, supposed to believe? Saint Fauci? His head of the CDC, both experts in the almost entirely useless for COVID-19 topic of AIDS/HIV? This also played right into his overweening narcissism.

    Replies: @BB753

  246. anon[271] • Disclaimer says:
    @That Would Be Telling
    @unit472


    Herd immunity is a wonderful objective but is there any evidence it even exists? Was small pox overcome because of ‘herd immunity? The ‘Black Death ,or did survivors become so few and far between that those viruses just ran out of new hosts… until the next outbreak?
     
    Herd immunity only makes sense in the context of what herd you're talking about. Smallpox was effectively eradicated from the US long before it was from the entire earth, and that's because imported smallpox cases hit a wall of immune hosts, although I would not be surprise to learn there was some transmission. The last known cases of smallpox are illuminating, in 1978 a not understood lab release in the U.K. infected a photographer who used a darkroom below that lab, despite a 1966 inoculation she got it and died. Her mother contracted "a very minor" case, no known other cases, but we might assume some people got exposed throughout the process and were fully protected by the vaccinations.

    The Black Death is caused by a bacteria, initial route is from rodent reservoirs (don't get too friendly with them in the western US, where the last plague pandemic ended up due to, as usual, it coming from mainland China), normally with an anthropoid vector like fleas. But that bubonic plague can then get into the blood, and at worst case for public health, the lungs, upon which it can spread like wildfire. I'm pretty sure not enough people ever got it that herd immunity would ever become a factor.

    Measles would be a good virus to study, much, much more transmissible than most anything else we vaccinate against, with the anti-vaxxers, certain special populations, and foreign sources breaking down the herd immunity that was achieved at great effort.

    So for COVID-19 today, at most you should shoot for herd immunity in particular nations, particularly important for a country like the US that this side of the counter-revolution has almost totally open borders, there will always been immigrants and visitors bringing it back here. By and large I wouldn't spend much time thinking about it today, after enough people get these new vaccines under FDA Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) the attitudes towards them might change, and it'll be some months before everyone who wants them today can get them. As it is, COVID-19 instantly became part of our cold civil war, is now to the point an insane tribal and political thing, and a great fraction of the Right is proving the Left was right about them, claiming a right to infect others as they please.

    Replies: @danand, @anon

    a great fraction of the Right is proving the Left was right about them, claiming a right to infect others as they please.

    wtf are you on about? leftoids can get the vax and they’ll be protected, no matter how many righties decide not to get it. As usual, the palimpsest of leftie rhetoric reveals a deep-seated totalitarian urge for power over those who would deny their authority.

  247. @Kyle
    Earlier in the year I posted that an IFR of 0.5% is the inflection point between “just the flu bro” and “the sky is falling.” And I speculated that it was probably less than 0.5%. I was wrong. It’s hard to blame us doubters when the mainstream media has been crying wolf for so long. When one actually shows up people with a normal sense of healthy skepticism, are skeptical. I still think without a vaccine 2 million people would have died. Or whatever, the exact number is irrelevant in a sense, however many people were going to die... were going to die. Eventually. Absent a vaccine. Those of you who hunkered down until the vaccine arrived, congratulations. It looks like you played your cards right. I didn’t hunker down. We were shut down for 6 weeks in April. But other than that I pretty much just kept going to work. In my opinion I have bigger problems than covid. And I still think I played my cards right. I really dialed up my productivity at work and I think I helped my boss keep his head above water financially. People like HBD chick are still going hysterical on twitter, according to her I’ve probably developed blood clots and suffered organ damage. Getting old sucks huh? Sars-cov-2 is going to be around forever, but the “pandemic” stage, or let’s call it the first wave, is not going to be around forever. Eventually a wildfire burns through all the dry fresh tinder and smolders out. Thank god for operation warp speed and whoever pushed for it.

    Replies: @Polistra

    Those of you who hunkered down until the vaccine arrived, congratulations. It looks like you played your cards right. I didn’t hunker down. We were shut down for 6 weeks in April. But other than that I pretty much just kept going to work. In my opinion I have bigger problems than covid. And I still think I played my cards right.

    Huh? Which group played their cards right again?

    FWIW, I’m in the first group but knowing what I know now I would have done it your way. But only because I’m not in a high-risk group.

    We didn’t have much knowledge in February and March. But we did by July and the rest was politics.

    Why are the IFR and raw death numbers up again now?

  248. @The Alarmist
    @Bragadocious

    When thousands of Americans are lined up for food banks (in their cars, which begs the question of how they afford the petrol), it takes a brave politico to borrow more on the backs of those Americans to give yet another $10 per man, woman, child, and non-binary in the US to defend a country whose own residents still rank in the top 20% of the world’s per capita GDP ....

    Brava, Senator Rubio.

    How about running “Text Help to 55555 to send $10 for Israel’s defense” ads on TV, and let’s see how much actual Americans would give if given the choice?

    Replies: @Jack D

    The money doesn’t actually go to Israel – it goes to US defense contractors who give overpriced stuff to Israel. The Israelis appreciate the free stuff but most of the money stays here.

    If we were really given a choice about paying taxes I don’t think that the Federal government would collect very much money at all. If you look at the amount that the Pentagon wastes, the money that goes toward buying stuff for Israel is just pocket change. The Pentagon budget is $704 billion so $3 billion is just a rounding error.

    • Agree: Alden, The Alarmist
  249. The problem is that it’s been very hard to come up with a measured, moderate response proportionate to the dangers of an infection that spreads exponentially and thus tends to be either growing or shrinking.

    It’s not rolling off a log, but i don’t think it’s rocket science either.

    But what’s appalling is the response we got from the establishment/Democrats:

    When it was possible to keep it out and contain it:

    “Quarantines don’t work! “What we have to fear is racism and xenophobia!” And the Democrats go hug a Chinaman routine.

    Then a month later, when we need sane moderate measures to suppress a respiratory virus.

    “Masks don’t work.” “Stop wearing a mask.” “Wash your hands 50 times a day.”

    Then a month later:

    “Shut it all down!” “Don’t go outside!” “Killer beaches!” “Killer parks!”

    You can’t make this stuff up. If i already hadn’t seen our establishment “elites” in action on immigration, the level of stupidity, arrogance and incompetence … off the charts.

    • Replies: @Robert Dolan
    @AnotherDad

    I wish it was simply incompetence......it's malice.

    The Covid lockdowns are economic warfare against our citizens.

    This is the deliberate destruction of our economy to usher in communism....unless people fight back.

  250. At first (March) I thought it was cool that there was finally a big argument among Sailer’s commenters in which one side didn’t consist just of Lot and Jack D., or just of Corvinus.

    Then I realized that corona-fear is just a read-out of body-mass index (I’m looking at you, Alexander Turok), and it got less interesting.

  251. @the one they call Desanex
    I am a Nietzschean superman,
    Dressed like a Nazi storm trooper, man!
    Tiny sucker-tipped arms
    Can’t do me any harm;
    They call me the COVID ass-whooper* man!

    *“Whooper” pronounced as spelt, as in “Indian War Whoop” (not “whupper”).

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Whiggledy piggledy,
    One They Call Desenex
    rushes to versify
    what we read here,

    ready to offer his
    pseudo-Hibernian
    rodomontade to the
    iSteveosphere.

    2 ⁴ 2020:

    There was a young lady called Harris
    That nothing could ever embarrass
    Till the bath salts, one day
    In the tub where she lay
    Turned out to be Plaster of Paris.

    Ogden Nash (1902-71)

    There once were two cats of Kilkenny,
    Each thought there was one cat too many,
    So they fought and they fit,
    And they scratched and they bit,
    Till, excepting their nails
    And the tips of their tails,
    Instead of two cats, there weren’t any.

    anonymous

    • Replies: @the one they call Desanex
    @Reg Cæsar

    It’s Desanex, not Desenex. Do I seem like a foot powder to you? I’m this guy.
    https://desanex.es/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/logo-desanex-desatascosysaneamientos.png

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  252. @danand
    @That Would Be Telling

    "Measles would be a good virus to study, much, much more transmissible than most anything else we vaccinate against..."

    That Would Be Telling, interesting comment. Measles immunity has proven over the years to be robust.

    Can't recall where I came across this, but tabled are a few diseases for which vaccines have been developed. It gives estimates for antibody half-life based off, as I recall, a couple decades worth of subject sampling, that was then extrapolated.


    https://flic.kr/p/2khFWCV

    Replies: @res

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
  253. @Guy De Champlagne
    We should want life to go back to the way it was before, and the faster the better.

    We should also be laying the groundwork for effective responses to disease outbreaks in the future. The countries that were hardest hit by SARS are the countries that were the best prepared for COVID because they did just that. It would be a huge mistake and a great tragedy to just go back to normal, learn absolutely nothing, and comfort ourselves with a bunch of just-so stories about how we have to be pathetic and incompetent because of our political system or geography.

    Replies: @Jake, @ken, @Pop Warner, @Prester John, @Polynikes, @Rob

    The countries that best handled SARS-CoV-2 were East Asian countries where the elites have not abandoned the masses to the vicissitudes of outsourcing and the endless hordes of aliens both ‘legal’ and illegal. That helped in several ways. Firstly, they still have significant manufacturing, meaning they could produce enough masks early enough in the pandemic that majority masking made the plague minor. The US no longer has the ability to make masks, having outsourced that to the Asian Tigers. They don’t have the legacy population of surly blacks who have trouble obeying any laws, so they kept did not shelter in place, or whatever that was called. The elites in Asia have not betrayed the peopke by importing 100 million aliens, who, like blacks, both kept spreading the disease and have the same tropical peoples’ vulnerability to respiratory diseases that blacks have.

    Because their media had not been on a partisan tear against the legacy majority of the country, and an intensified propaganda campaign against the President and his deplorable voters, so masking did not become a partisan issue, with a huge number of people denying even the existence of COVID, because the media lies and gaslights them about everything else. In East Asia, the elites and media are more trustworthy, so citizens trusted them more than Americans trusted our elite.

    Their elite and public health ‘experts’ did not spend the first month of the pandemic lying to them, telling them masks did not work to slow the spread of COVID.

    Their permanent government did not see an opportunity to oust the Orange Man Bad, so their FDA-equivalents did not create a defective test kit, and decline to approve others’ tests. That allowed the bad orange man to claim that we did not have a plague on our hands.

    They don’t have a political party whose only goal is breaking the government. A party whose legislative leader’s only idea of how to respond to a plague and the mass unemployment it caused was to suggest a tax cut.

    Their political establishment is no so deficient that a half-witted clown got elected President. A clown who did not wear a mask, because, like his base, the media lies to and about him constantly, so he did not believe that wearing a mask was important. Probably he thought it made him look ghey. So he got COVID, along with many others in the White House. Again, because the partisan media made masking a partisan issue, because they people remembered their partisan propaganda serving the elite. The media spread and amplified the establishments’ early lies about masks.

    Our problems are much deeper and larger in scale than our D- response to COVID. Far worse than merely ignoring SARS. East Asia handled SARS-CoV-2 so well because they are developed, first world countries. We used to be. All COVID did was expose how deep the rot is.

    • Replies: @Guy De Champlagne
    @Rob

    Australia and New Zealand also had competent responses. And non basket case countries in Europe had incompetent responses. A lot of it just comes down to having been scared by SARS and having been spared by SARS.

    , @utu
    @Rob

    "...a huge number of people denying even the existence of COVID, because the media lies and gaslights them about everything else." - I think the covid truthers would resent this description. Most of them here who are self-described HBDers would attribute their actions and beliefs to their superior genes. And do not forget about large contingent of libertarians. Asking them to be constructive when a concerted effort is required is like inviting a pacifist conscientious objector to the war council. In Taiwan 75% of Sailer's commentariat would be fined or arrested for the nonsense about covid and countermeasures they repeat for last nine months. The success of Taiwan was due to discipline and compliance which were helped with arrests and fining of several rumor mongers.

    Japan success comes form tracking and isolating system that was already in place from past epidemics and compliance with universal masking.

    And then there is New Zealand. A Western country with a leftist government with 15% of Maori population and not too strong industrial base that succeeded in quashing the epidemic as well as Asian countries.

    In Europe several countries did very well like Finland, Norway and Denmark. Then there are Poland and Czechoslovakia which did very well in the first wave but then they squandered everything by letting to develop the devastating second wave. They thought the epidemic was over and they did not continue tracking and isolating in summer.

    And Germany is doing well chiefly because of having a very good medical system infrastructure and doing very good tracking and isolating to prevent outbreaks. Still as of today they had to go for the lockdown.

    Countries that did not do well like Spain, Italy, UK, Belgium did not respond early enough. The infection rate was already very high went they introduced lockdowns. And then in summer when the infection rate went to below the managble level their tracking and isolating system turned out to be ineffective so they were hit with big second waves.

    Partisan media and vicious polarization in the US certainly should be blamed. And I do not make distinction between Democrats and Republicans here. But the party in power and president are Republican so they bear all responsibility. The chamber of commerce Republicans were no different from libertarians on the countermeasures. Suddenly they all discovered that the welfare state Sweden was their Shangri-La. People, who put on the table the do nothing herd immunity option are the most responsible. Because of them lockdowns were delayed and they planted a seed of doubt that was amplified by the useful idiot libertarians and other covid truthers to unmanageable proportion.

    And we should not overload the role of WHO and CDC in dismissing masking as an effective non-pharmaceutical countermeasure. The role of Big Pharma in creating the paradigm for fighting epidemics that is anti the non-pharmaceutical countermeasures should not be overlooked.

    Finally I do not exclude a possibility that we in the West were a subject of a disinformation campaign to weaken our resolve by sowing confusion and distrust. In the age of internet to conduct a disinformation campaign by creating destructive memes and getting on board some credentialed useful idiots professionals as talking heads on Youtube is easy. Russia and China come to my mind as potential culprits.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jtgw, @Mark G.

  254. @Jake
    It is always a very good thing to trust whatever Bill Gates hawks. The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.

    Replies: @Bard of Bumperstickers, @U. Ranus, @Paul Jolliffe, @Hypnotoad666, @Alden

    Gates just issued a statement that he believes the epidemic will go on to 2022. Who’s he? Not a nurse Dr public health statistician epidemiologist nothing to do with health issues.

    I never believed covid hoax is a real disease. My believe it’s a hoax comes from excellent authority. The NYSlimes, Washington Post CNN the entire media claimed its the new Black Plague that will kill hundreds of millions.

    Since every word in the MSM is a lie, I know covid is a hoax. Whatever the MSM claims, the opposite is true. Trayvon Martin Mike Brown Freddie Gray George Floyd we’re all sweet innocent blacks intentionally murdered by racist Whites. Whatever the MSM says, the opposite is true.

    TSA really only affects air travelers. Few have the money or desire to buy a brand new electric hybrid Save Mother Earth car every other year. Global warming isn’t accelerating that anyone can notice or be affected by. Garbage and trash separate cans, criminalization of smoking tobacco, legalization of smoking weed TPTB, need to come up with a new way to harass and disrupt our lives every few years.

    This one is serious. Not the disease but the power mad domination and control freaks . Fauci states we might have to wear masks after vaccination.

    Whatever minion of Satan invented covid hoax masks and school and business closures is a mega genius. Masks for everyone, TSA lines to enter stores and obedience to dictatorial government orders that change every day.

  255. @Robert Dolan
    Covid is a hoax, a psychological operation, a scam.

    It is not dangerous unless you are 80 years old and dying anyway.

    The overall death rate is .2%, about the same as the flu.

    Even for the most vulnerable old people category the death rate is still only 4%.

    Covid poses zero risk for young people.

    The total number of deaths has not increased, while the death rates for heart attacks, flu, etc., have disappeared, indicating that dying with Covid has replaced a long list of normal causes of death.

    In other words, they are LYING on the death certificates because hospitals are getting paid for every covid diagnosis.

    At this point I believe the whole thing was planned and deliberate....used to get rid of Trump, push mail in ballots to enable fraud, etc.

    Also the virus has been used to rob people of their liberty.

    God knows what kind of dangers lurk in an untested vaccine.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    The Pandemic was not planned, but the Deep state , the media and the democratic leaders realized they could use it to their advantage to defeat Trump.

    The democrats quickly realized they could use this pandemic to implement mail-in voting across the nation which would make it easier to defeat Trump in November, so the governors kept the lockdowns going thru the summer , months after the curve was flattened. They kept the panic going to increase the size of our government , increase their power and destroy millions of small business owners.

    The lockdowns and mask wearing mandates did nothing to stop the spread of Coronavirus. these new vaccines may save the lives of 150,000 Americans over the next year as they help us get to herd immunity faster. The Hoax is the lies about the benefits of lockdowns and masks and continued exaggerations of deaths and risks to the average American. Half the people who died from COVID would have passed away within 12 months. It was immoral to shut down the schools and small businesses in a failed effort to stop the spread of a virus with a fatality rate of .2% for those not living in a nursing home.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  256. @The Wild Geese Howard
    Professor Christian Drosten, who developed the PCR test in his own words:

    https://twitter.com/LGcommaI/status/1338954407610871808

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    Howard, Gov. Newsum says that California is ordering body bags and sending refrigerated trucks to hospital for the looming death totals…sigh, how I wish we could find the truth. Stay safe.

    • Replies: @unit472
    @Buffalo Joe

    California reported over 61,500! new cases today and 407 deaths. You can be a skeptic but those numbers are devastating.

    Replies: @utu

    , @epebble
    @Buffalo Joe

    Also this:


    Hospitals’ Desperate Measures

    With intensive care units in Southern California and the Central Valley lurching perilously close to full capacity, officials are turning to increasingly desperate measures to prevent the state’s coronavirus surge from killing even more patients.

    Hospitalizations are continuing to rise at unprecedented levels, and officials have limited options for boosting capacity. Among the tools: canceling scheduled surgeries; keeping critically ill patients in emergency rooms; sending ICU patients into step-down units earlier; training nurses from elsewhere in hospitals to help with intensive care; and increasing the numbers of patients an ICU nurse can care for.

    In Los Angeles County, emergency rooms are so crowded that some ambulances have been forced to wait as long as six hours to offload patients, said Cathy Chidester, director of the Los Angeles County Emergency Medical Services Agency.

    California is also seeking more medical staff from overseas, perhaps from as far away as Australia, while opening field hospitals to care for non-ICU patients in places such as Costa Mesa, Porterville, Sacramento and Imperial

     

    Replies: @HammerJack

  257. @AnotherDad

    The problem is that it’s been very hard to come up with a measured, moderate response proportionate to the dangers of an infection that spreads exponentially and thus tends to be either growing or shrinking.
     
    It's not rolling off a log, but i don't think it's rocket science either.

    But what's appalling is the response we got from the establishment/Democrats:

    When it was possible to keep it out and contain it:

    "Quarantines don't work! "What we have to fear is racism and xenophobia!" And the Democrats go hug a Chinaman routine.

    Then a month later, when we need sane moderate measures to suppress a respiratory virus.

    "Masks don't work." "Stop wearing a mask." "Wash your hands 50 times a day."

    Then a month later:

    "Shut it all down!" "Don't go outside!" "Killer beaches!" "Killer parks!"


    You can't make this stuff up. If i already hadn't seen our establishment "elites" in action on immigration, the level of stupidity, arrogance and incompetence ... off the charts.

    Replies: @Robert Dolan

    I wish it was simply incompetence……it’s malice.

    The Covid lockdowns are economic warfare against our citizens.

    This is the deliberate destruction of our economy to usher in communism….unless people fight back.

  258. @Anonymous
    What is the greater threat?

    (1) Covid

    -or-

    (2) Immigration?

    Why is Steve so focused on the former, while basically ignoring the latter?

    If Covid was such a serious threat, the powers that be would have shut the borders and shut down restaurant food preparation and service. They didn’t.

    The Covid crisis has provided the opportunity of a lifetime to end immigration. Mainly for economic reasons, but also for public health reasons.

    Replies: @Polynikes

    Fear turns people into fools.

    It’s a cliche at this point but Walmart and Amazon = ok. But your local retailer = ‘rona scare!

    Grocery stores are ok, but restaurants are not. Unless you get carryout or your bartender has a hanky on her face.

    BLM rallies = kosher. Republican rallies = superspreaders!

    Your beloved mother dies = zoom call funeral! Black congressman or crack head dies = multi state funeral tour!

    It’s amazing how many idiots, especially around here, but into this nonsense. The same people telling you George Floyd was the next SCOTUS Justice are the same ones telling you not to work, keep your kids out of school and wear a mask. How absolutely dumb do you have to be to believe them? About anything?

  259. @Guy De Champlagne
    @HammerJack

    China has every reason to keep pumping out pandemics as long as they're able to respond to them quickly and competently while the US just shows off its signature buffoonery and basketcasery. Maybe by the next pandemic they'll blow us out of the water with their vaccine development like China was able to with every other part of their COVID response this time.

    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China. This virus and the responses from the two countries has been the best advertisement for 'Made in China' that they could have hoped for.

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @fnn, @WJ, @Keypusher, @Hhsiii

    Congrats on the “Troll” tag. It means “I have no answer to your post, and I’m REALLY angry about that.”

  260. @Johnny Smoggins
    @Jake

    Steve also seems unwilling to dig too deeply into the election that was just stolen right in front of everyone.

    I think boomers saw enough of America at its greatest that they can't bring themselves to admit that America has become basically as corrupt as Ukraine.

    Replies: @Ian M., @Ray Huffman

    America has become basically as corrupt as Ukraine.

    Wow, that’s great news that our level of corruption has decreased so significantly!

    Oh… that’s not what you meant?

  261. But it wont be over and done. We’ll just be a-waitin’ on the next Karen-created crisis, surely coming right around the corner.

  262. @Chrisnonymous
    @Dr. DoomNGloom

    For those not in the know, can you explain or provide a link that explains how Trump facilitated the vaccine?

    Replies: @Dr. DoomNGloom

    Casual web searches find lots of hits. My take is that he thought this a low risk high reward strategy. He provided a lot more resources and capital than I thought it was worth, but he won the roll of those dice.

    here is one from april and an unfriendly, but not demented, site.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/trump-s-operation-warp-speed-aims-to-rush-coronavirus-vaccine

    It’s been going on for a while. Here’s one from August in which Trump sounds precient about foot dragging till after Nov 3.

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/513443-trump-turns-up-pressure-on-fda

    He was clearly hedging bets
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/trump-wants-fda-to-move-as-quickly-as-they-can-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-approval.html

    Trump pressuring FDA is the narrative from hostile media
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/03/politics/white-house-fda-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

    I can’t find a link, but after it was over, he had the FDA hold a special meeting for final go ahead for use. The stories I read said it wouldn’t affect the actual delivery time because everything was tied up in the supply chain. The narrative was pretty consistent, everyone says “what your hurry”, and “you should be spending more time on x,y,z” as Trump bully’s, blusters, and arm-twists others to pick up the pace.

    It’s as if he had a lot of experience wrangling cats on high cost projects.

    • Thanks: Chrisnonymous
  263. @Guy De Champlagne
    @HammerJack

    China has every reason to keep pumping out pandemics as long as they're able to respond to them quickly and competently while the US just shows off its signature buffoonery and basketcasery. Maybe by the next pandemic they'll blow us out of the water with their vaccine development like China was able to with every other part of their COVID response this time.

    Noone in their right mind is going to choose to rely on anything critical made in the US when they could get it from China. This virus and the responses from the two countries has been the best advertisement for 'Made in China' that they could have hoped for.

    Replies: @Ozymandias, @fnn, @WJ, @Keypusher, @Hhsiii

    I bet what China noticed is that the American stock market is at an all time high.

  264. @Jake
    @Guy De Champlagne

    Have you not figured out that they have been lumping flu deaths with Covid deaths? And they have been attributing to death by Covid people who have been dying from cancer for years and caught Covid at the very end?

    Everything about this pandemic has been greatly overblown, with more than a few outright lies tossed in. Why? Who?

    Follow the money and the political power.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Guy De Champlagne, @Keypusher

    What unz needs is not a troll tag but a
    moron tag.

  265. Latest caution from CDC. We should only wear a mask once. Because breathing in and out means breathing in and out your own germs. So we should change the masks several times a day. And always wear your mans indoors in your own home. Even if you live alone and work at home. And be sure to change it often.

    This research brought to you by the Suk Yu medical mask factory.

  266. @Bardon Kaldian
    @Reg Cæsar

    Yeah, sure, but Ludwig got PCoed. His heroic trait, the essential lineament of his temperament, has been diffused & distorted into something akin to the pean of the Brussels bureaucracy.

    Of course I know everything from Eroica & Napoleon to the Ode to Joy, but the author's position is clear- Beethoven, torn between individualist heroism & universalist humanism (a fake dichotomy) had finally chosen the right side.

    Only if he could, he would have probably voted for Sleepy Joe. Most blacks did, anyway.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/15/opinions/celebrating-beethoven-250-birthday-swafford/index.html

    How Beethoven outgrew his hero worship

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    Yeah, sure, but Ludwig got PCoed. His heroic trait, the essential lineament of his temperament, has been diffused & distorted into something akin to the pean of the Brussels bureaucracy.

  267. @Polynikes
    @res

    Masks don’t prevent the flu. Decades of research back that up.

    And lockdowns didn’t drop the spread of covid. If anything the opposite since the main mode of transmission is in the home.

    But other than that I believe the CDC propaganda.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Masks don’t prevent the flu. Decades of research back that up.

    In a technical sense, this may well be accurate, i.e. a typical surgical mask really doesn’t stop individual viruses.

    But in practical terms, Hong Kong’s response to COVID back in January is a good case study. Because of SARS here in 2003, once COVID hit the news in late January, nearly everyone in HK immediately starting wearing masks in public. Not coincidentally, I guess, the seasonal flu here simply ended. It was effectively eliminated within weeks, right at the point of the year at which it normally peaks.

    At this point, I honestly wish this weren’t true — it’s given the HK government the impression that all viral outbreaks, including COVID, are ‘beatable’ via intensive social distancing and mask mandating, to the point that quality of life here has become much, much worse even though COVID cases/deaths here are still pretty low.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Yet all over Europe and the United States masks haven’t made a difference. Even the shoddy city by city comparison studies that were rushed out to support faucis mask fetish had to be retracted* when all the mask locations in those cherry picked studies eventually got the rona.

    Those studies are pretty unreliable anyways. And most of the RCTs point to masks being ineffective. Your anecdote is a data point, but just one in a sea of evidence that points in the opposite direction. They seem like they should work much in the same way it seems the Sun rotates sounds the earth, but both fail under closer examination.


    *of course, actual scientific discourse would’ve been to update your study and point out your original conclusion is no longer correct and maybe even the opposite is now true. but since politics now trump science, we simply withdraw the study and pretend it never happened.

    , @utu
    @The Last Real Calvinist


    In a technical sense, this may well be accurate, i.e. a typical surgical mask really doesn’t stop individual viruses.
     
    A mask does not stop 100% but it reduces a viral dose. There is a minimal threshold of viral dose necessary for the infection to happen. If the mask reduces the viral does below the threshold then the mask is de facto 100% effective.

    Furthermore it is believed that infections at lower viral doses are milder and less infective.

    But the most important function of masks that Asian countries recognize is that when almost everybody wears a mask the effect of masks is multiplied and it leads to the reduction of the R0 which reduces the infection rate and if R0 is below 1 the epidemic can be quashed without pharmaceutical measures.

    The Big Pharma is not a friend of masks. The adopted paradigm by WHO and CDC is to fight epidemics with pharmaceutical measures. This explain why we were hearing dismissive statements about masks form WHO and CDC in the beginning of the epidemic. They were running on the autopilot. CDC even posted an anti-nonpharmaceutical measures paper on its site in May. Probably to cover its ass. But in September finally they changed their tune:

    CDC director Robert Redfield said face masks may be more effective than a vaccine in preventing individual coronavirus infections”
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-director-masks-better-than-vaccines-at-stopping-coronavirus-2020-9

    The World Health Organization’s senior official in Europe said Thursday that blanket national lockdowns to curb the spread of COVID-19 wouldn’t be necessary if governments could convince their citizens to wear masks.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-europe-who-masks-could-prevent-coronavirus-lockdowns-school-closures-dont-work/
     
  268. @Buffalo Joe
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    Howard, Gov. Newsum says that California is ordering body bags and sending refrigerated trucks to hospital for the looming death totals...sigh, how I wish we could find the truth. Stay safe.

    Replies: @unit472, @epebble

    California reported over 61,500! new cases today and 407 deaths. You can be a skeptic but those numbers are devastating.

    • Replies: @utu
    @unit472

    The 4o7 is big jump from the day before. The 4o7 deaths are due to the infections from three weeks ago. Since then the infections daily rate increased by 2-3 times. So one may expect to see 800-1200 deaths per day in 2-3 weeks proving that the big jump today was not an outlier.

  269. @That Would Be Telling
    @Dutch Boy

    On the new CICP "vaccine court" for COVID-19 "Countermeasures": governments are cheap, ours doesn't want to pay 10 to 100 times as much for these countermeasures including vaccines that would be required if they were to be subject to our totally insane civil law system. See the children's vaccine court established in 1988 when pertussis (whooping cough) vaccine was becoming unobtanium.

    There's also the sad fact that no matter what you do, when you give vaccines to tens of millions of people, you will absolutely positively maim and kill a few of them. That's just how things work with our wild and crazy, but usually in a good way, immune systems.

    Or take your chances with an uncontrolled zillions of your cells infected wild type virus infection, nature doesn't care how you get immunized, or die and make that irrelevant.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy

    We don’t yet know how many will be harmed by the new vaccines. Keep your fingers crossed. BTW, the DPT disaster was caused by the use of whole cell DTP in the USA even though a much safer DTaP was available and used in Japan. Lobbying by parents finally caused the USA to switch to DTaP in the 80s after ten years of effort.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Dutch Boy


    We don’t yet know how many will be harmed by the new vaccines. Keep your fingers crossed.
     
    Indeed; as I said, some for sure, but how many is very much up in the air.

    BTW, the DPT disaster was caused by the use of whole cell DTP in the USA even though a much safer DTaP was available and used in Japan. Lobbying by parents finally caused the USA to switch to DTaP in the 80s after ten years of effort.
     
    Everything I've heard is that this is an immediate safety/efficacy trad eoff of questionable long term outcome, and that claims of a "disaster" are wildly overblown, the whole cell variety was after all a now century old vaccine. Acellular pertussis (whooping cough) vaccines, the a in TDaP, do nothing to stop someone from getting the disease, they just try to control the bad side effects by limiting the damage from one of its toxins. But it has more than one toxin, and a commentator in a previous iSteve discussion insisted we really needed to add another toxin to the acellular vaccine.
  270. @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack

    Excellent article in every way, although of course you could have scaremongered more about morbidity, and perhaps pointed out people generally have a choice of an uncontrolled wild type infection involving zillions of cells, or a controlled real or quasi-infection (virus vector or mRNA), or protein plus adjuvants!!!, although the Operation Warp Speed big bet on Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline is requiring a restart, their dosing for the elderly "produced 'insufficient immune response,'" see the newer formulations of the same style flu vaccines for this population, four times the protein antigens as the normal, my father certainly noticed the difference.

    As previously discussed on iSteve, your point in the article about giving our betters less time and fodder to engineer a Great Reset is worthy of serious consideration. In the US, if enough people don't get either natural or vaccine immunity (the former the term for getting the wild type infection), in Blue states it'll be "lockdowns forever," or until they run out of money, people willing to tolerate their shenanigans, etc. Depopulating NYC sounds great in theory, but we know from the Californication of various western states, plus see New Hampshire, that these people will bring the attitudes that turned their former hellholes to wherever they decamp to. And who knows what a Biden or Harris in the White House might try to impose on the entire country, the former having previously warned us about a "dark winter." And he's probably not all wrong....

    For those worrying about the safety of mRNA vaccines, it's clear almost all those on iSteve simply aren't going to be eligible for the first tranche of mRNA vaccines, so they'll have a lot more time to learn from the data of the Phase III trial participants, and for those one in million problems that you're unlikely to find when you only give vaccines to a few tens of thousands, from the Phase IV experiences of tens of millions getting the vaccines starting in the last couple of days.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @Rex Little, @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang

    we know from the Californication of various western states, plus see New Hampshire, that these people will bring the attitudes that turned their former hellholes to wherever they decamp to.

    As witness, Arizona (my current home state after 40 years in California) going for Biden.

    Dammit, I moved here to get away from those people. Where do I go now?

  271. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Polynikes


    Masks don’t prevent the flu. Decades of research back that up.

     

    In a technical sense, this may well be accurate, i.e. a typical surgical mask really doesn't stop individual viruses.

    But in practical terms, Hong Kong's response to COVID back in January is a good case study. Because of SARS here in 2003, once COVID hit the news in late January, nearly everyone in HK immediately starting wearing masks in public. Not coincidentally, I guess, the seasonal flu here simply ended. It was effectively eliminated within weeks, right at the point of the year at which it normally peaks.

    At this point, I honestly wish this weren't true -- it's given the HK government the impression that all viral outbreaks, including COVID, are 'beatable' via intensive social distancing and mask mandating, to the point that quality of life here has become much, much worse even though COVID cases/deaths here are still pretty low.

    Replies: @Polynikes, @utu

    Yet all over Europe and the United States masks haven’t made a difference. Even the shoddy city by city comparison studies that were rushed out to support faucis mask fetish had to be retracted* when all the mask locations in those cherry picked studies eventually got the rona.

    Those studies are pretty unreliable anyways. And most of the RCTs point to masks being ineffective. Your anecdote is a data point, but just one in a sea of evidence that points in the opposite direction. They seem like they should work much in the same way it seems the Sun rotates sounds the earth, but both fail under closer examination.

    *of course, actual scientific discourse would’ve been to update your study and point out your original conclusion is no longer correct and maybe even the opposite is now true. but since politics now trump science, we simply withdraw the study and pretend it never happened.

  272. @Nodwink
    @HammerJack

    They opened it up again, which was the first time I thought the "lab accident" theorists might be onto something.

    Replies: @Polistra, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    If they really opened it up again, it could indicate that they realize it’s pointless to keep one closed when dozens of others remain open in just that region alone.

    Or the Chinese just might find it difficult to give up old nasty habits. It’s hardly their only one.

  273. @Buffalo Joe
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    Howard, Gov. Newsum says that California is ordering body bags and sending refrigerated trucks to hospital for the looming death totals...sigh, how I wish we could find the truth. Stay safe.

    Replies: @unit472, @epebble

    Also this:

    Hospitals’ Desperate Measures

    With intensive care units in Southern California and the Central Valley lurching perilously close to full capacity, officials are turning to increasingly desperate measures to prevent the state’s coronavirus surge from killing even more patients.

    Hospitalizations are continuing to rise at unprecedented levels, and officials have limited options for boosting capacity. Among the tools: canceling scheduled surgeries; keeping critically ill patients in emergency rooms; sending ICU patients into step-down units earlier; training nurses from elsewhere in hospitals to help with intensive care; and increasing the numbers of patients an ICU nurse can care for.

    In Los Angeles County, emergency rooms are so crowded that some ambulances have been forced to wait as long as six hours to offload patients, said Cathy Chidester, director of the Los Angeles County Emergency Medical Services Agency.

    California is also seeking more medical staff from overseas, perhaps from as far away as Australia, while opening field hospitals to care for non-ICU patients in places such as Costa Mesa, Porterville, Sacramento and Imperial

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    @epebble


    California is also seeking more medical staff from overseas, perhaps from as far away as Australia
     
    Now isn't that strange? Why would they go to Australia? Mexico's right next door. And only racists would pretend that Mexico's not the equal of (or superior to) Australia in every way.

    Besides, most of the patients are probably Mexican anyway. Eliminates the language barrier. Win win.

    Replies: @epebble

  274. • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @MEH 0910


    Breaking News [from the NYT]: U.S. hospitals are discovering that some vials of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine contain extra doses, and the FDA said it was acceptable to use them.
     
    It's kinda of a bad headline, in part based on simple arithmetic beyond the NYT staff's level. First see the info about the vaccine in the FDA's EUA page. After you defrost a vial, you dilute the contents with 1.8 mL of 0.9% Sodium Chloride Injection, USP, which officially yields 5 0.3 mL doses. Using division, then being just a little over in the saline solution you add, and/or just a little under in the doses, would allow you to easily scavenge a 6th dose from the vial, or if not, you've still got a near full 6th dose.

    These should be close enough to the official full quantity it won't matter for the purposes of getting younger people with good immune systems vaccinated. On the other hand, if you're savaging a 7th dose either there was too much original material in the vial, which should be a mostly harmless error in its filling, but concerning if there's also vials with too little (but if responsible, you always bias towards too much by just a little bit), or you used way too much in the initial dilution. Which is still probably going to work out in the end, but I'd really try to avoid this for any elderly getting the vaccine.
  275. @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack

    Excellent article in every way, although of course you could have scaremongered more about morbidity, and perhaps pointed out people generally have a choice of an uncontrolled wild type infection involving zillions of cells, or a controlled real or quasi-infection (virus vector or mRNA), or protein plus adjuvants!!!, although the Operation Warp Speed big bet on Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline is requiring a restart, their dosing for the elderly "produced 'insufficient immune response,'" see the newer formulations of the same style flu vaccines for this population, four times the protein antigens as the normal, my father certainly noticed the difference.

    As previously discussed on iSteve, your point in the article about giving our betters less time and fodder to engineer a Great Reset is worthy of serious consideration. In the US, if enough people don't get either natural or vaccine immunity (the former the term for getting the wild type infection), in Blue states it'll be "lockdowns forever," or until they run out of money, people willing to tolerate their shenanigans, etc. Depopulating NYC sounds great in theory, but we know from the Californication of various western states, plus see New Hampshire, that these people will bring the attitudes that turned their former hellholes to wherever they decamp to. And who knows what a Biden or Harris in the White House might try to impose on the entire country, the former having previously warned us about a "dark winter." And he's probably not all wrong....

    For those worrying about the safety of mRNA vaccines, it's clear almost all those on iSteve simply aren't going to be eligible for the first tranche of mRNA vaccines, so they'll have a lot more time to learn from the data of the Phase III trial participants, and for those one in million problems that you're unlikely to find when you only give vaccines to a few tens of thousands, from the Phase IV experiences of tens of millions getting the vaccines starting in the last couple of days.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @Rex Little, @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang

    “ it’s clear almost all those on iSteve simply aren’t going to be eligible for the first tranche of mRNA vaccines”

    You underestimate iSteve’s military readership

    • Replies: @res
    @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang


    You underestimate iSteve’s military readership
     
    Any further thoughts on that? What kind or proportions do you think apply for:
    ex/military as share of iSteve readers/commenters
    iSteve readers/commenters as share of current military

    Do iSteve readers in the military tend to be open about it?
  276. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Polynikes


    Masks don’t prevent the flu. Decades of research back that up.

     

    In a technical sense, this may well be accurate, i.e. a typical surgical mask really doesn't stop individual viruses.

    But in practical terms, Hong Kong's response to COVID back in January is a good case study. Because of SARS here in 2003, once COVID hit the news in late January, nearly everyone in HK immediately starting wearing masks in public. Not coincidentally, I guess, the seasonal flu here simply ended. It was effectively eliminated within weeks, right at the point of the year at which it normally peaks.

    At this point, I honestly wish this weren't true -- it's given the HK government the impression that all viral outbreaks, including COVID, are 'beatable' via intensive social distancing and mask mandating, to the point that quality of life here has become much, much worse even though COVID cases/deaths here are still pretty low.

    Replies: @Polynikes, @utu

    In a technical sense, this may well be accurate, i.e. a typical surgical mask really doesn’t stop individual viruses.

    A mask does not stop 100% but it reduces a viral dose. There is a minimal threshold of viral dose necessary for the infection to happen. If the mask reduces the viral does below the threshold then the mask is de facto 100% effective.

    Furthermore it is believed that infections at lower viral doses are milder and less infective.

    But the most important function of masks that Asian countries recognize is that when almost everybody wears a mask the effect of masks is multiplied and it leads to the reduction of the R0 which reduces the infection rate and if R0 is below 1 the epidemic can be quashed without pharmaceutical measures.

    The Big Pharma is not a friend of masks. The adopted paradigm by WHO and CDC is to fight epidemics with pharmaceutical measures. This explain why we were hearing dismissive statements about masks form WHO and CDC in the beginning of the epidemic. They were running on the autopilot. CDC even posted an anti-nonpharmaceutical measures paper on its site in May. Probably to cover its ass. But in September finally they changed their tune:

    CDC director Robert Redfield said face masks may be more effective than a vaccine in preventing individual coronavirus infections”
    https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-director-masks-better-than-vaccines-at-stopping-coronavirus-2020-9

    The World Health Organization’s senior official in Europe said Thursday that blanket national lockdowns to curb the spread of COVID-19 wouldn’t be necessary if governments could convince their citizens to wear masks.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-europe-who-masks-could-prevent-coronavirus-lockdowns-school-closures-dont-work/

  277. @unit472
    @Buffalo Joe

    California reported over 61,500! new cases today and 407 deaths. You can be a skeptic but those numbers are devastating.

    Replies: @utu

    The 4o7 is big jump from the day before. The 4o7 deaths are due to the infections from three weeks ago. Since then the infections daily rate increased by 2-3 times. So one may expect to see 800-1200 deaths per day in 2-3 weeks proving that the big jump today was not an outlier.

  278. anon[271] • Disclaimer says:

    As you see, the shape of the COVID and non-COVID curves are nearly identical, with both peaking in April and mid-summer. This suggests that many of the excess deaths not attributed to COVID actually were related to COVID.

    Steve, I don’t think this automatically follows. A lot of mortality-related statistics may peak during those same times. Car accidents, suicides, domestic violence, all sorts of seemingly disparate stuff follows strange annual patterns of intensity.

    If anything, the collapse in regular flu cases so far this year suggests the possibility that there’s an over-diagnosis of chinese virus happening.

    Something you should mention is that the CDC has admitted the number of deaths from wu flu ALONE is only about 9,000 total. Covid has to exploit preexisting ailments to bump up its lethality.

    Another thing: there are NO long term studies of the safety of mRNA vaccines (given their novelty). You cannot assert with any confidence that there won’t be long term lasting side effects from the pandademic jab.

    Man up and accept that a cost-benefit analysis of taking this vaccine is the smart approach. If I have a 0.003% chance of dying from the chinese flu, and there’s a novel fast-tracked vaccine using an mRNA delivery system which has ZERO long-term safety studies behind it, I’m not gonna rush to get jabbed.

    All these vax pushers have no rebuttal to this type of healthy skepticism. They can endlessly insist the new vaccine is safe “on paper” over the long term, but no one really knows, especially when the vaccine is created using mRNA genetic building blocks.

    The smart play for younger healthy people is to let the vulnerable oldies and fatties get jabbed while free riding on their innoculation firewall.

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @anon


    Another thing: there are NO long term studies of the safety of mRNA vaccines (given their novelty). You cannot assert with any confidence that there won’t be long term lasting side effects from the pandademic jab.

    Man up and accept that a cost-benefit analysis of taking this vaccine is the smart approach. If I have a 0.003% chance of dying from the chinese flu, and there’s a novel fast-tracked vaccine using an mRNA delivery system which has ZERO long-term safety studies behind it, I’m not gonna rush to get jabbed.

    All these vax pushers have no rebuttal to this type of healthy skepticism. They can endlessly insist the new vaccine is safe “on paper” over the long term, but no one really knows, especially when the vaccine is created using mRNA genetic building blocks.
     
    The problem here is that you don't know that for a very long time we've been using "vaccines created using mRNA genetic building blocks" in the form of attenuated, de-fanged pathogenic RNA viruses; from a perusal of Wikipedia, measles, mumps, oral polio, rotavirus (but per reports here and on Wikipedia the first vaccine had a nasty side effect requiring surgery to fix), rubella (German measles), the nasal spray flu vaccine, and yellow fever.

    So the idea of injecting mRNA into cells so they can hijack them to produce a full immune system response including killing all those cells dead is not new. The only new things here, which were not entirely experimental before COVID-19 showed up, is the precise mRNA used, a stabilized version of the spike protein, and the precise lipids used to protect the mRNA. In return, even more than modern viral vector vaccines, there's precise control and a massive limitation of the mRNA used. So "on paper" as you put it, the theory is strong.

    But as anyone sane acknowledges, theory must be proven in the real world. So people have been getting dosed with these particular mRNA vaccines since March, in increasing numbers through the Phase I to III trials. And they aren't "approved" as the FDA uses that term quite explicitly in the information provided to those giving and taken the Pfizer/BioNTech, we're at the stage of Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs), where we're willing to take more risks because, you know, thousands of people are dying every day.

    Letting nature take its course has known and unknown risks, and if we fail to keep the curve bent, death rates go up when you run out of hospital capacity, as my very local region recently did (it's down by 1/5th in the last week or so, and we didn't see a Thanksgiving surge). So that's one reason front line healthcare workers are one of the highest priorities, because many if not most if not pretty much all hospitals are staff rather than isolation bed limited, that's true of my local ones, which when we were peaking a little while ago had perhaps a total of 100 staff out with COVID-19, or isolated after an exposure.

    So what's "long term?" The FDA decided two months of safety data from one half of the people who get a vaccine in a Phase III trial is enough for an EUA, based on the claim which seems reasonable that the vast majority of severe side effects show up in a month and a half. From a very unreliable source, the norm is six months, which we'll reach in another three months or so, at which point the FDA would normally consider full licensure for general populations. And doing that based on limited information is required, you simply aren't likely to find "one in a million" bad side effects when you're only testing them on 15,000 people plus or minus. But here we have an early start on Phase IV due to the EUA and the crisis meaning we'll have data from tens of millions getting inoculated before licensure is considered, a lot of extra data.

    But going back to the theory, if you're going to claim these mRNA vaccines are extra dangerous you need hypotheses about why the stabilized spike protein the mRNA makes a relatively few cells produce is, for example, a lot more dangerous than a wild type infection doing the same without stabilization in zillions of cells. Or why the lipid protection in the vaccines is going to be harmful in the long term, which I doubt any of us are qualified to theorize on, except for noting we have a lot of machinery to deal with lipids, and there's no public horror stories about the use of these lipids in the decade or so during which they've been tried on limited numbers of people in multiple Phase I trials.

    More to the point, you need hypotheses about why bad side effects aren't going to show up in 8-2 months so far, but later, and add 4 months before licensure will be considered per my estimate. Better, wait on the data generated from these fairly long periods, and the EUA use in tens of millions. The latter is certainly risky, but so it letting the virus rip through populations, where we also don't know what the long term effects are going to be.

    Replies: @BB753

  279. It’l be done just a little after the War on Terror is wrapped up.

    Done in ’21
    Through in ’22
    Free in ’23

    • Replies: @Mr Mox
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    Done in ’21
    Through in ’22
    Free in ’23


    More in '24

  280. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer


    Nah, the flu has basically not happened in the US since about April.
     
    Sure, the masks and lockdowns have stopped the spread of the respiratory disease known as seasonal influenza (caused by pathogens that in a normal year infect around 10% of the population), but have somehow had no effect at all on the respiratory disease known as COVID-19. Although we should certainly continue taking those measures, and even more stringent measures, because science.

    You are foolishly naive Steve if you think the pandemic can be ended by any rational concrete means. It serves the interests of a too many powerful interests - the people who engineered it (not the virus, but the response). It didn't bother you that the propaganda (We're all in this together, six feet apart!, Stay Home, Stay Safe!, Frontline Heros!) started belching forth from the World's viewscreens as if on cue? A whole carefully crafted and coordinated PR campaign ready to go from Day One, as soon as somebody or somebodies flipped that switch?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Rockford Tyson

    Sheer idiocy. Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, “elites” do not benefit from this lockdown at all. The stock of most corporations are down, demand is down, production is down. Except fro maybe a few bankers in Wall Street, economic elites are being crushed by the pandemic. If you think this is good for Sillicon Valley, or for Boeing, or for computer chip manufactuers, you are stupid beyond belief. Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.

    The economy globally will retract 7% this years. Why would elites want to engineer a crisis like this that makes them poorer, that restricts their ability to send money abroad and that ultimately, might even kill them?

    The response to COVID from the government is exactly what you would expect to a pandemic with a degree of severity we haven’t seen in 100 years, a virus that no one knew it’s etiology, it’s infectious capacity, and it’s mortality rate. The global President of the Santander bank,one of the richest man in the World, died from COVID. Is this part of the conspiracy, too? To make some of the members of the elite die just to give credibility to the notion that the elite is not conspiring to get the “Great Reset” that the Rightist nutsos like you talk about? You right-wingers are a bunch of delusional idiots.

    Even worse are right-wingers that deny the seriousness of this disease by claiming that the death toll of COVID is much lower because most of the infected people die from other causes, like penumonia. Yeah, except that the person wouldn’t have died from pneumonia or even caught it in the first place if it weren’t for them being infected from COVID. That is like saying that someone infected with HIV that dies from the Flu did not really die from HIV but from the Flu. The fact is, that same person most likely would have survived the Flu infection if it weren’t for them him being infected with HIV in the first place “Unrelated” causes my ass. 2 million dead already and counting. If it weren’t for COVID, the vast majority of those people would be alive despite many of them having caught the pneumonia, or the Flu, or the heart failure that “supposedly” killed them.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Rockford Tyson


    Sheer idiocy. Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, “elites” do not benefit from this lockdown at all. The stock of most corporations are down, demand is down, production is down. Except fro maybe a few bankers in Wall Street, economic elites are being crushed by the pandemic. If you think this is good for Sillicon Valley, or for Boeing, or for computer chip manufactuers, you are stupid beyond belief. Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.
     
    The only idiocy I see on display here is your. Gates, Bezos, and the rest of them are making solid bank on this crisis.

    “Unrelated” causes my ass. 2 million dead already and counting. If it weren’t for COVID, the vast majority of those people would be alive despite many of them having caught the pneumonia, or the Flu, or the heart failure that “supposedly” killed them.
     
    Even without COVID many of them would have been dead within a few years. There are many people who willl die from the response to COVID.

    2 million dead? The Asia Flu killed more than a million people in a World with a population only about 37% of the current population. People didn't run around like their hair was on fire in 1958 and act like shrieking hysterics as you and your ilk are doing.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Rockford Tyson


    Why would elites want to engineer a crisis like this that makes them poorer, that restricts their ability to send money abroad and that ultimately, might even kill them?
     
    Restricts their ability to send money abroad? How?

    Might even kill them? How will masking, locking-down, and ruining the peasants kill the elites?

    You are not making any sense.
    , @William Badwhite
    @Rockford Tyson


    The stock of most corporations are down
     
    Cool rant Bro, but facts are your friend:

    The S&P 500 is up 16.6% year-to-date. The performance since the end of Q1 is even more astounding.

    The all-country world ex-US is up over 4%, more since the end of Q1.

    The Europe, Asia, Far East is up 4.25%, more since the end of Q1.


    Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.
     
    Citation needed. Lets take Bezos for example: Amazon stock is up over 75% in 2020. How about Gates? Microsoft stock is up over 40%.


    You right-wingers are a bunch of delusional idiots.
     
    You left-wingers are stupid, angry, and vicious. When you're able to construct an argument that isn't both wrong and filled with ad hominem, you may be ready to post here. Until then please go back to Slate or Yahoo News or wherever you came from.

    Replies: @Neil Templeton, @Rockford Tyson

    , @vinteuil
    @Rockford Tyson


    Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, “elites” do not benefit from this lockdown at all.
     
    Don't be obtuse.

    The political elite are gaining unprecedented power over many aspects of everyday life - power that they will never voluntarily give up.

    The media elite are gaining unprecedented power over the dissemination - and, especially, the suppression - of information.

    The big distributors of consumer goods are gaining unprecedented market share, wiping out the little ones.

    The stock of most corporations are down...
     
    You mean like Amazon? Like Walmart? Like Target?

    I mean, WTF, dude - the market keeps setting record highs.

    "Sheer idiocy," indeed.
  281. @Chrisnonymous
    @Mr. Anon


    It serves the interests of a too many powerful interests – the people who engineered it (not the virus, but the response).
     
    This is definitely an issue, as is the related issue of the elites not being affected in the same way as everyone else (can do their jobs online from home, etc)...

    It didn’t bother you that the propaganda (We’re all in this together, six feet apart!, Stay Home, Stay Safe!, Frontline Heros!) started belching forth from the World’s viewscreens as if on cue? A whole carefully crafted and coordinated PR campaign ready to go from Day One, as soon as somebody or somebodies flipped that switch?
     
    ...however, this is not right. We have all lived through this together, so people should be able to remember how things developed only a few months ago, and there was not a uniform response that was rolled out by TPTB. The propaganda was a hodgepodge that developed organically over time and has differed somewhat based on locality. As someone who was travelling to NY from from Asia just as things were getting bad in NYC, I was in contact with my local health department and experienced the developing response firsthand as they kept contacting me with new news as New York government was meeting and developing its response plans. The response is actually a strong argument that the pandemic was an accident and not a plan, despite the danger it poses to civil liberties.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Mr. Anon

    The propaganda was a hodgepodge that developed organically over time and has differed somewhat based on locality.

    No, that isn’t what I saw. I saw PSA’s and slogans rolled out almost immediately. Within about a week, commercial advertising was reflecting the “New Normal”. Within just a couple of weeks, a global all-network program was put on with an army of celebrities – Elton John, Lady GaGa, Bill Gates, etc. Then there was the global phenomenon, within days or at most a week or two, of people standing on their balconies banging pots and pans to honor “front line workers” (our brave boys on the Malabar front!).

    It was not normal. It was not organic. It was planned and executed with a purpose. A purpose likely not even known to most of the people who were the public face of this campaign.

    • Agree: Alden
    • LOL: Chrisnonymous
  282. @Nodwink
    @HammerJack

    They opened it up again, which was the first time I thought the "lab accident" theorists might be onto something.

    Replies: @Polistra, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Lab accident always seemed most likely to me. Here is my impeccable logic:

    THE CASE FOR NATURAL EMERGENCE:

    The Chinese are filthy. They eat bats, and bugs, they shit in the street, and they don’t wash their hands. Their cities are crowded and unsanitary. Of course they spawn new viruses!

    THE CASE AGAINST NATURAL EMERGENCE:

    You can say the same of India, Africa, South America, the Middle East, the rest of Asia, and parts of Europe and North America. Where are all their viruses? Why is China punching above its weight here? Why are we singling them out?

    THE CASE FOR A LAB ACCIDENT:

    1. This research takes place in the west
    2. Western labs have a history of safety problems
    3. This research also takes place in China
    4. However unsafe the labs in America are, the Chinese labs will be twice as bad

  283. @wren
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Here's something OT for you and Steve:

    https://www.twitter.com/diana_west_/status/1339277102982569985

    If the Georgia Bureau of Investigations guy investigating the mysterious crash (which looked like Michael Hasting's crash?) really committed suicide on Monday, there is something odd going on.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    That’s very interesting!

  284. @candid_observer

    Herd immunity is likely to require more than 60 percent and perhaps as many as 80 percent of Americans to be either infected or vaccinated. In hard-hit Manaus in the Amazon, an estimated 76 percent of residents have been infected.

    ...

    With the current third wave, we’ll no doubt reach, say, 25 percent infected by midwinter. But the good news is that if another 50 percent or so of the population get inoculated rather than infected, then COVID will be gone.
     

    Some of the relevant numbers here are not well established, or fully precise, including rate for herd immunity, percentage infected, and rate of reduction in transmission from the vaccinated.

    But the relationship is pretty simple.

    nonInfectious = infected + naive * vaccinated * suppressionRate

    Here, the "nonInfectious" is the overall percentage of those in the population who won't transmit the disease, "infected" is the percentage already infected, "naive" is the percentage of the population which has not been infected (i.e. 1-infected), "vaccinated" is the percentage of the naive who get vaccination, and "suppressionRate" the percentage of the vaccinated who cannot transmit the disease.

    Then we've reached herd immunity when

    nonInfectious = herdImmunityRate (with obvious meaning)

    We want to know: what's the required vaccination rate to reach herd immunity?

    Solving for vaccinated, we get

    vaccinated = (herdImmunityRate-infected)/(naive * suppressionRate)

    This formula is easy to set up in excel, etc. Again, one can substitute (1 - infected) for naive.

    As we get a clearer picture of the relevant rates, it should be easy to predict what vaccination rates we need, at least at a very crude level.

    For example, if the herd immunity rate is 75%, the infected 25%, and the suppression of transmission is 90%, then the required vaccination rate is 74%.

    It's probably worth noting, though, that rate required for herd immunity is likely a moving object, not just because of measures that might be taken, but also because of weather. The third surge seems very good evidence of the major impact of weather.

    Replies: @MGB, @unit472, @Steve Sailer

    “For example, if the herd immunity rate is 75%, the infected 25%, and the suppression of transmission is 90%, then the required vaccination rate is 74%.”

    Does this assume the already infected get vaccinated at the same rate as the uninfected?

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @Steve Sailer

    I'm assuming that the vaccination rate is relevant only for those in the naive population, that is, those who have not been already infected. I'm assuming that all of those who have already been infected are, permanently, no longer infectious. If they happen to get the vaccination, then, obviously, their lack of infectiousness can't improve from 100%.

    To work through the example, suppose that 25% of the population has been already infected, and that herd immunity is reached when 75% of the entire population is no longer infectious. In order to reach that 75% figure in the entire population, 25% comes from the already infected, and the remaining 50% must come from the naive population -- which is 2/3, .6666, of that population. But to get 67% of the naive population non-infectious, we must vaccinate a higher proportion of them, because vaccination presumably does not confer 100% non-infectiousness on its recipients. So we need to factor that dropoff into the formula. So let's assume that vaccination confers only 90% non-infectiousness. Then, as I quoted, and as the formula I provided entails, we must vaccinate 74% of the naive population. Checking that this works, we can see that .9 * .74 = .666.

    Th virtue of the formula is that it makes it very convenient to update our expectations as the relevant inputs -- rate of already infected, herd immunity rate, and suppression of infectiousness in the vaccinated -- get better established, or change.

  285. @MikeCLT
    @Jake

    Steve survived stage 4 cancer because of cancer treatments developed by the pharmaceutical companies. His trust in their competence comes from experience.

    Replies: @AndrewR

    How many years ago was that? It’s a different world.

  286. @That Would Be Telling
    @Hannah Katz


    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter.
     
    Ignoring that he's a pathological liar, and very bad with time based estimates, see his comments on Operation Warp Speed (OWS), this is all about obtaining herd immunity for the 5% who can't get protected by vaccines. If you care about the populations at risk, and view masking with surgical grade plus or minus as at best neutral, which is an open question few are trying to honestly answer (see the Danish study which asked the wrong question), then, yes, we should be under restrictions like masking until herd immunity is reached, naturally or vaccine. Or not, I have no belief enough people will take COVID-19 vaccines to reach it, and we simply can't know at this time if natural immunity will "sterilize," to use the term as vaccine people do, enough people to fill in the gaps. (Sterilize as in, "you will never, ever detect viable SARS-CoV-2 in this person in the future.")

    So we could see out betters saying, hey, get the vaccine to protect the 5% of seniors most at risk who also fail to get a proper response from the vaccines. And if not, "lockdowns forever," and that could well be a winning political strategy for the Democrats. If seniors, probably correctly, view the Right and Republicans as selfish sociopaths who don't give a damn if they live or die, why shouldn't they switch their allegiance to Democrats who at least pretend to care, and who have the MSM covering up things like Cuomo's killing 10-20,000 nursing home residents, and the same policies killing even more per capita in New Jersey, see also Pennsylvania. Without that part of the Republican base, the Democrats won't even have to cheat to win elections.

    Replies: @Catdog, @Steve Sailer

    “Or not, I have no belief enough people will take COVID-19 vaccines to reach it, and we simply can’t know at this time if natural immunity will “sterilize,” to use the term as vaccine people do, enough people to fill in the gaps. (Sterilize as in, “you will never, ever detect viable SARS-CoV-2 in this person in the future.”)”

    Vaccine experts should stop using the term of art “sterilizing” because most people don’t know what it means and instead assume they are talking about the vaccine rendering people infertile or impotent.

  287. @Johnny Smoggins
    @Redneck farmer

    Also the fact that western nations are now largely run by women, so extreme caution and hypochondria are to be expected.

    Replies: @Mr Mox

    Shhh… Some universal truths are not supposed to be noticed:

    It sounds sexist, and it’s sure to raise the ire of some feminists, but the literature does not lie. Throughout history, groups of people in cohesive social units have suddenly fallen ill or exhibited strange behaviors, from headaches and fainting spells to twitching, shaking and trance states. But whether it’s an outbreak of spirit possession at a shoe factory in Malaysia, a collapsing marching band at a school gala in England or a twitching epidemic in a Louisiana high school, the pattern is invariably the same. Most, and often all of those affected, are females. In fact, of the 2,000+ cases in my files which date back to 1566, this pattern holds true over ninety-nine percent of the time.

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/its-catching/201703/why-are-females-prone-mass-hysteria

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Mr Mox


    During outbreaks [of mass hysteria] girls may insult .... officials and demand change. They have even spat on and slapped their superiors in the face – with no repercussions. The students are able to escape punishment because their actions are blamed on the possessing spirits who are believed to be talking through them
     
    The spirit of George Floyd speaks....

    BTW, if you Google George Floyd he comes up as "American hip-hop artist". LOL.
  288. @Reg Cæsar
    @the one they call Desanex

    Whiggledy piggledy,
    One They Call Desenex
    rushes to versify
    what we read here,

    ready to offer his
    pseudo-Hibernian
    rodomontade to the
    iSteveosphere.


    2 ⁴ 2020:


    There was a young lady called Harris
    That nothing could ever embarrass
    Till the bath salts, one day
    In the tub where she lay
    Turned out to be Plaster of Paris.

    --Ogden Nash (1902-71)

    There once were two cats of Kilkenny,
    Each thought there was one cat too many,
    So they fought and they fit,
    And they scratched and they bit,
    Till, excepting their nails
    And the tips of their tails,
    Instead of two cats, there weren’t any.

    --anonymous

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex

    It’s Desanex, not Desenex. Do I seem like a foot powder to you? I’m this guy.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @the one they call Desanex


    Do I seem like a foot powder to you?
     
    On the Internet, nobody knows you're a foot powder.



    https://464697-1455876-raikfcquaxqncofqfm.stackpathdns.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/na-internetu-niko-ne-zna-da-ste-pas.png
  289. @Hippopotamusdrome
    It'l be done just a little after the War on Terror is wrapped up.

    Done in '21
    Through in '22
    Free in '23

    Replies: @Mr Mox

    Done in ’21
    Through in ’22
    Free in ’23

    More in ’24

  290. @Johnny Smoggins
    @Jake

    Steve also seems unwilling to dig too deeply into the election that was just stolen right in front of everyone.

    I think boomers saw enough of America at its greatest that they can't bring themselves to admit that America has become basically as corrupt as Ukraine.

    Replies: @Ian M., @Ray Huffman

    It’s worse than the Ukraine. In the Ukraine, when apprehended by some mercenary pig for committing some bullshit crime, you can pay a small bribe on the spot to avoid a far worse ass raping by the judge and sundry others. Here, that option is not open to you. They will pass you around like a joint at a Willie Nelson concert until you are sucked dry and financially ruined. And that probably still won’t be enough. They’ll then throw your ass in jail simply because you have no more money to pay. Graft only benefits the rich here.

  291. @utu
    @Steve Sailer

    Obviously there was no Master Plan. The question is why they were all over the map. I am pretty sure they have all kinds of ready to use plans for different epidemic scenarios. All it takes is to go to right filing cabinet somewhere in Pentagon or Homeland Security. Is it possible that our establishment was subjected to disinformation to confuse and delay their response? Is it possible there are moles in the establishment that were sabotaging constructive attempts? Why the alternative of doing nothing as oppose of doing something was even put on the table? Who was behind the do nothing herd immunity meme?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @That Would Be Telling

    Who was behind the do nothing herd immunity meme?

    From the screenplay for Oliver Stone’s Pandemic:

    Deep inside CIA headquarters, two officers simultaneously insert keys into a safe. John Brennan retrieves a stack of papers. Papers shown being passed from person to person until received by Joint Chiefs as they walk into the Oval Office…

    Chairman of JC: “Mr. President. Now is the time. You must follow The Plan to Nationalize Mask Production.”
    Stephen Miller: “Mr. President, some Unz Review commenters don’t want to wear masks. Some are even concerned about… civil liberties…”
    Chairman of JC: “Mr. President, you must listen! 10s of millions of lives are at stake!”
    Trump [looking into the distance]: “Everyone out. Now.”
    [Exeunt all staff]

    Trump kneels down in middle of Oval Office. A life-size hologram of a figure in a dark, hooded cloak appears. It is Anders Tegnell, but his face is wrinkled and his body slumped over. The hood partially obscures his face.
    Trump [kneeling with head bowed]: “My master, the CIA is trying to save America with its plan.”
    Tegnell: “Don’t worry, my apprentice. Sweden is progressing nicely to herd immunity. Soon America will follow.”
    Trump: “But my master, you clearly said before that Sweden is not trying to achieve herd immunity and that herd immunity is only a byproduct of a plan to minimize disruption to people’s lives.”
    Tegnell: “Yes, I said it in interviews, but the Force is strong in one. His name is… utu… he has seen through our published statements and plans… seen through to the herd immunity… Darth Trump, you must go to the press pool now. Declare that America must get back to work! Take Darth Miller with you. He can rally our legions in alternative media…Go now, before it is too late!”

    Scene change. Somewhere in East Asia a man in meditating.
    utu [eyes open suddenly]: “Master Yoda, I felt a great disturbance in the Force, like a million voices crying out and suddenly being silenced.”
    Yoda: “Herd immunity you see.”
    utu: “Online. I must go online. I have to save them.”
    Yoda: “But your research summarizing. Incomplete it is…”
    utu: “Master Yoda, I must go!”

    • LOL: Mike Tre, utu
    • Replies: @Pat Hannagan
    @Chrisnonymous

    I like Utu but that was very funny!

  292. @Hypnotoad666
    @Jake


    The multi-billionaires are selflessly devoted to mankind, and none of them are freaky weird SciFi types with god-complexes.
     
    As the saying goes: "The problem with self-made men is that they tend to worship their creator."

    Actually, these guys have a lot of intelligence and ability. But they suffer from the common delusion that "if I am a genius in field A, then I must be a genius in all other fields as well."

    It's like the nuclear scientists who were the smartest men on earth when it came to physics, but whose ideas on geopolitics and economics was a lot of rainbows and unicorns nonsense about having a benevolent one-world dictatorship of experts who would hold nuclear weapons in trust and use technocratic solutions to fix all the world's problems.

    Replies: @36 ulster

    As described by Michael Rennie in The Day the Earth Stood Still, though one-UNIVERSE dictatorship might be more appropriate.

  293. Anonymous[290] • Disclaimer says:
    @rebel yell
    In a normal world I would trust the public health officials to tell me the best science they have about the virus and the vaccine, and I would take their prescription and get the shot.
    Of course we are not in a normal world and I have many good reasons to mistrust (and hate) the leaders of our institutions, including Fauci, Big Pharma, and the political elites who now rule us with street violence.
    But in the end I will trust my doctor and get the shot. Why? Because you can't walk around paranoid about everything. Because there will always be more graphs contradicting all the other graphs and I don't have time to go get a medical degree and decide for myself. Because trustworthy or not I can't avoid relying on institutions. Because I chose my doctor, he's done right by me for years, I trust him, and he said get the shot.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    But in the end I will trust my doctor and get the shot. Why? Because you can’t walk around paranoid about everything.

    Bad advice. Remember, if you walk around “paranoid” about everything, at least you’re walking around.

    I, personally, have in my adult life been (in rough chronological order) almost killed by mistaken medical therapy once, badly defrauded twice, and had my life saved once (hip replacement) and bettered once (ocular surgery). That omits dental care, which has saved my life (by preventing progressive deterioration of health due to a major infection) every time I had a root canal. Which happened periodically until I stopped using sugar in drinks.

    One of my family members was almost killed by serotonin re-uptake drugs (later found to be ineffective therapy) after being badly overworked, losing roughly $80,000 directly and much more indirectly, and becoming apathetic. He was OK once he got several months to rest up.

    From the “Win a few, lose a few” department: Physicians aren’t perfect, just very good (usually).
    There are about 2.8 million deaths in the US each year. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
    About 0.8 million of these 2.8 million are iatrogenic.
    https://www.ourcivilisation.com/medicine/usamed/deaths.htm
    https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death/

    Physicians are very smart and well trained, so am I, so are you. They necessarily operate on imperfect information and also make mistakes and are sometimes greedy — they are human, just like you. Trust a bit, but verify a lot — or die early, up to you.

    • Replies: @JackOH
    @Anonymous

    Excellent comment, sir, on a medical establishment that does much good when it does good, and also contains within its skill set the capability of doing much harm through error, either honest or through ineptitude, or willfulness, mostly greed compounded by vanity.

    From my comment #52 above:

    Doesn’t this cry out for a Joint House-Senate Select Committee on Health Care Investigation? Or are we all supposed to take our vaccine and wish away America’s dismal and very costly performance during the pandemic?

    Two questions I'd want to ask are:

    (1) How is it that the United States is paying a Lambo price, much of it in costs of economic dislocation, for a budget-lot beater performance in the pandemic?

    (2) Does America's medical establishment emphasize some public health statistics to serve its own political interests, and, likewise, place other public health statistics in shadow for the same reason?

    Two examples of the former are Covid-19, of course, and "undertreated pain", promoted by opioid makers and many others beginning in the 1990s.

    One example of the latter is the completely unexamined role of America's medically uninsured folks during the pandemic. Seems reasonable to me a younger uninsured and Covid-infected worker in the low wage retail, food service, and other sectors would be unlikely to self-quarantine, or get tested at all.

    , @Jack D
    @Anonymous


    About 0.8 million of these 2.8 million are iatrogenic.
     
    It's unfair to think of all of these deaths as having been caused by the medical system. Typically the individual in question is already very sick (or at least sick enough to require medical attention, by definition) and instead of curing him the medical care (or lack of medical care) leads to his death but in most (but not all) cases the individual would have died anyway of the underlying condition if left untreated.

    This is the same fallacy as afflicts anti-vaxxers. Your choice is not, take the vaccine and face the unknown risks thereof vs. don't take it and nothing will happen to you, it is take the vaccine and face the unknown risks thereof vs. don't take it and possibly get Covid and die. I agree that if the purpose of the shot was just to make you better looking (e.g. Botox) then there's no way in hell I would risk taking it knowing what you say about human imperfection and greed. However, according to the FDA approved double blind studies, the vaccine offers you a 95% chance of immunity from a disease that has killed millions worldwide. That's a risk that I am willing to take given what lies on the other side of the balance.
  294. @Chrisnonymous
    @utu


    Who was behind the do nothing herd immunity meme?
     
    From the screenplay for Oliver Stone's Pandemic:

    Deep inside CIA headquarters, two officers simultaneously insert keys into a safe. John Brennan retrieves a stack of papers. Papers shown being passed from person to person until received by Joint Chiefs as they walk into the Oval Office...

    Chairman of JC: "Mr. President. Now is the time. You must follow The Plan to Nationalize Mask Production."
    Stephen Miller: "Mr. President, some Unz Review commenters don't want to wear masks. Some are even concerned about... civil liberties..."
    Chairman of JC: "Mr. President, you must listen! 10s of millions of lives are at stake!"
    Trump [looking into the distance]: "Everyone out. Now."
    [Exeunt all staff]

    Trump kneels down in middle of Oval Office. A life-size hologram of a figure in a dark, hooded cloak appears. It is Anders Tegnell, but his face is wrinkled and his body slumped over. The hood partially obscures his face.
    Trump [kneeling with head bowed]: "My master, the CIA is trying to save America with its plan."
    Tegnell: "Don't worry, my apprentice. Sweden is progressing nicely to herd immunity. Soon America will follow."
    Trump: "But my master, you clearly said before that Sweden is not trying to achieve herd immunity and that herd immunity is only a byproduct of a plan to minimize disruption to people's lives."
    Tegnell: "Yes, I said it in interviews, but the Force is strong in one. His name is... utu... he has seen through our published statements and plans... seen through to the herd immunity... Darth Trump, you must go to the press pool now. Declare that America must get back to work! Take Darth Miller with you. He can rally our legions in alternative media...Go now, before it is too late!"

    Scene change. Somewhere in East Asia a man in meditating.
    utu [eyes open suddenly]: "Master Yoda, I felt a great disturbance in the Force, like a million voices crying out and suddenly being silenced."
    Yoda: "Herd immunity you see."
    utu: "Online. I must go online. I have to save them."
    Yoda: "But your research summarizing. Incomplete it is..."
    utu: "Master Yoda, I must go!"

    Replies: @Pat Hannagan

    I like Utu but that was very funny!

  295. I hope Mr. Sailer and his readers check this video out. It’s Dr. Tom Woods (not a medical doctor) on the science and politics of the Covid situation:

  296. @anon

    As you see, the shape of the COVID and non-COVID curves are nearly identical, with both peaking in April and mid-summer. This suggests that many of the excess deaths not attributed to COVID actually were related to COVID.
     
    Steve, I don't think this automatically follows. A lot of mortality-related statistics may peak during those same times. Car accidents, suicides, domestic violence, all sorts of seemingly disparate stuff follows strange annual patterns of intensity.

    If anything, the collapse in regular flu cases so far this year suggests the possibility that there's an over-diagnosis of chinese virus happening.

    Something you should mention is that the CDC has admitted the number of deaths from wu flu ALONE is only about 9,000 total. Covid has to exploit preexisting ailments to bump up its lethality.

    Another thing: there are NO long term studies of the safety of mRNA vaccines (given their novelty). You cannot assert with any confidence that there won't be long term lasting side effects from the pandademic jab.

    Man up and accept that a cost-benefit analysis of taking this vaccine is the smart approach. If I have a 0.003% chance of dying from the chinese flu, and there's a novel fast-tracked vaccine using an mRNA delivery system which has ZERO long-term safety studies behind it, I'm not gonna rush to get jabbed.

    All these vax pushers have no rebuttal to this type of healthy skepticism. They can endlessly insist the new vaccine is safe "on paper" over the long term, but no one really knows, especially when the vaccine is created using mRNA genetic building blocks.

    The smart play for younger healthy people is to let the vulnerable oldies and fatties get jabbed while free riding on their innoculation firewall.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Another thing: there are NO long term studies of the safety of mRNA vaccines (given their novelty). You cannot assert with any confidence that there won’t be long term lasting side effects from the pandademic jab.

    Man up and accept that a cost-benefit analysis of taking this vaccine is the smart approach. If I have a 0.003% chance of dying from the chinese flu, and there’s a novel fast-tracked vaccine using an mRNA delivery system which has ZERO long-term safety studies behind it, I’m not gonna rush to get jabbed.

    All these vax pushers have no rebuttal to this type of healthy skepticism. They can endlessly insist the new vaccine is safe “on paper” over the long term, but no one really knows, especially when the vaccine is created using mRNA genetic building blocks.

    The problem here is that you don’t know that for a very long time we’ve been using “vaccines created using mRNA genetic building blocks” in the form of attenuated, de-fanged pathogenic RNA viruses; from a perusal of Wikipedia, measles, mumps, oral polio, rotavirus (but per reports here and on Wikipedia the first vaccine had a nasty side effect requiring surgery to fix), rubella (German measles), the nasal spray flu vaccine, and yellow fever.

    So the idea of injecting mRNA into cells so they can hijack them to produce a full immune system response including killing all those cells dead is not new. The only new things here, which were not entirely experimental before COVID-19 showed up, is the precise mRNA used, a stabilized version of the spike protein, and the precise lipids used to protect the mRNA. In return, even more than modern viral vector vaccines, there’s precise control and a massive limitation of the mRNA used. So “on paper” as you put it, the theory is strong.

    But as anyone sane acknowledges, theory must be proven in the real world. So people have been getting dosed with these particular mRNA vaccines since March, in increasing numbers through the Phase I to III trials. And they aren’t “approved” as the FDA uses that term quite explicitly in the information provided to those giving and taken the Pfizer/BioNTech, we’re at the stage of Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs), where we’re willing to take more risks because, you know, thousands of people are dying every day.

    Letting nature take its course has known and unknown risks, and if we fail to keep the curve bent, death rates go up when you run out of hospital capacity, as my very local region recently did (it’s down by 1/5th in the last week or so, and we didn’t see a Thanksgiving surge). So that’s one reason front line healthcare workers are one of the highest priorities, because many if not most if not pretty much all hospitals are staff rather than isolation bed limited, that’s true of my local ones, which when we were peaking a little while ago had perhaps a total of 100 staff out with COVID-19, or isolated after an exposure.

    So what’s “long term?” The FDA decided two months of safety data from one half of the people who get a vaccine in a Phase III trial is enough for an EUA, based on the claim which seems reasonable that the vast majority of severe side effects show up in a month and a half. From a very unreliable source, the norm is six months, which we’ll reach in another three months or so, at which point the FDA would normally consider full licensure for general populations. And doing that based on limited information is required, you simply aren’t likely to find “one in a million” bad side effects when you’re only testing them on 15,000 people plus or minus. But here we have an early start on Phase IV due to the EUA and the crisis meaning we’ll have data from tens of millions getting inoculated before licensure is considered, a lot of extra data.

    But going back to the theory, if you’re going to claim these mRNA vaccines are extra dangerous you need hypotheses about why the stabilized spike protein the mRNA makes a relatively few cells produce is, for example, a lot more dangerous than a wild type infection doing the same without stabilization in zillions of cells. Or why the lipid protection in the vaccines is going to be harmful in the long term, which I doubt any of us are qualified to theorize on, except for noting we have a lot of machinery to deal with lipids, and there’s no public horror stories about the use of these lipids in the decade or so during which they’ve been tried on limited numbers of people in multiple Phase I trials.

    More to the point, you need hypotheses about why bad side effects aren’t going to show up in 8-2 months so far, but later, and add 4 months before licensure will be considered per my estimate. Better, wait on the data generated from these fairly long periods, and the EUA use in tens of millions. The latter is certainly risky, but so it letting the virus rip through populations, where we also don’t know what the long term effects are going to be.

    • Replies: @BB753
    @That Would Be Telling

    More to the point: will YOU get the vaccine, and which one if so?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  297. @Dutch Boy
    @That Would Be Telling

    We don't yet know how many will be harmed by the new vaccines. Keep your fingers crossed. BTW, the DPT disaster was caused by the use of whole cell DTP in the USA even though a much safer DTaP was available and used in Japan. Lobbying by parents finally caused the USA to switch to DTaP in the 80s after ten years of effort.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    We don’t yet know how many will be harmed by the new vaccines. Keep your fingers crossed.

    Indeed; as I said, some for sure, but how many is very much up in the air.

    BTW, the DPT disaster was caused by the use of whole cell DTP in the USA even though a much safer DTaP was available and used in Japan. Lobbying by parents finally caused the USA to switch to DTaP in the 80s after ten years of effort.

    Everything I’ve heard is that this is an immediate safety/efficacy trad eoff of questionable long term outcome, and that claims of a “disaster” are wildly overblown, the whole cell variety was after all a now century old vaccine. Acellular pertussis (whooping cough) vaccines, the a in TDaP, do nothing to stop someone from getting the disease, they just try to control the bad side effects by limiting the damage from one of its toxins. But it has more than one toxin, and a commentator in a previous iSteve discussion insisted we really needed to add another toxin to the acellular vaccine.

  298. @Anonymous
    @rebel yell


    But in the end I will trust my doctor and get the shot. Why? Because you can’t walk around paranoid about everything.
     
    Bad advice. Remember, if you walk around "paranoid" about everything, at least you're walking around.

    I, personally, have in my adult life been (in rough chronological order) almost killed by mistaken medical therapy once, badly defrauded twice, and had my life saved once (hip replacement) and bettered once (ocular surgery). That omits dental care, which has saved my life (by preventing progressive deterioration of health due to a major infection) every time I had a root canal. Which happened periodically until I stopped using sugar in drinks.

    One of my family members was almost killed by serotonin re-uptake drugs (later found to be ineffective therapy) after being badly overworked, losing roughly $80,000 directly and much more indirectly, and becoming apathetic. He was OK once he got several months to rest up.

    From the "Win a few, lose a few" department: Physicians aren't perfect, just very good (usually).
    There are about 2.8 million deaths in the US each year. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
    About 0.8 million of these 2.8 million are iatrogenic.
    https://www.ourcivilisation.com/medicine/usamed/deaths.htm
    https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death/


    Physicians are very smart and well trained, so am I, so are you. They necessarily operate on imperfect information and also make mistakes and are sometimes greedy -- they are human, just like you. Trust a bit, but verify a lot -- or die early, up to you.

    Replies: @JackOH, @Jack D

    Excellent comment, sir, on a medical establishment that does much good when it does good, and also contains within its skill set the capability of doing much harm through error, either honest or through ineptitude, or willfulness, mostly greed compounded by vanity.

    From my comment #52 above:

    Doesn’t this cry out for a Joint House-Senate Select Committee on Health Care Investigation? Or are we all supposed to take our vaccine and wish away America’s dismal and very costly performance during the pandemic?

    Two questions I’d want to ask are:

    (1) How is it that the United States is paying a Lambo price, much of it in costs of economic dislocation, for a budget-lot beater performance in the pandemic?

    (2) Does America’s medical establishment emphasize some public health statistics to serve its own political interests, and, likewise, place other public health statistics in shadow for the same reason?

    Two examples of the former are Covid-19, of course, and “undertreated pain”, promoted by opioid makers and many others beginning in the 1990s.

    One example of the latter is the completely unexamined role of America’s medically uninsured folks during the pandemic. Seems reasonable to me a younger uninsured and Covid-infected worker in the low wage retail, food service, and other sectors would be unlikely to self-quarantine, or get tested at all.

  299. @Dutch Boy
    @The Alarmist

    One wonders what the definition of a "case" was. A positive PCR test? Pish! Actual symptoms or need for medical care? That would be meaningful.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    I recently saw a blurb that on one of the two tests, only three of the 162 cases in the placebo group were considered severe.

    The first question anyone presenting no symptoms but being asked to take a PCR test is how many cycles they are running; if the answer is, “I don’t know,” or any number greater than 35 (a number The Fauch himself volunteered earlier on), one should politely decline, since there is little valid science going on there, and a false positive result only complicates one’s life.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @The Alarmist

    There's no connection between your two paragraphs, severe cases in the two mRNA Phase III trials have criteria beyond being symptomatic for COVID-19. If you want to know know that the criteria for the latter are, here are the Pfizr/BioNTech and Moderna Phase III protocols, which will define them as precisely as they did severe cases, which I've looked up and posted here on iSteve in a prior topic.

    It's been suspected the much higher number of severe cases in the Moderna trial, almost statistically significant as of the November 30th Moderna application for a FDA Emergency Use Authorization, was from their enrolling a lot more elderly. This can be confirmed now that the Moderna briefing papers, company and FDA staff, have been published by the FDA's advisory committee, which should be meeting right this very minute to make their recommendation. And live streaming it, here's the pages for each, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna.

  300. @Rob
    @Guy De Champlagne

    The countries that best handled SARS-CoV-2 were East Asian countries where the elites have not abandoned the masses to the vicissitudes of outsourcing and the endless hordes of aliens both ‘legal’ and illegal. That helped in several ways. Firstly, they still have significant manufacturing, meaning they could produce enough masks early enough in the pandemic that majority masking made the plague minor. The US no longer has the ability to make masks, having outsourced that to the Asian Tigers. They don’t have the legacy population of surly blacks who have trouble obeying any laws, so they kept did not shelter in place, or whatever that was called. The elites in Asia have not betrayed the peopke by importing 100 million aliens, who, like blacks, both kept spreading the disease and have the same tropical peoples’ vulnerability to respiratory diseases that blacks have.

    Because their media had not been on a partisan tear against the legacy majority of the country, and an intensified propaganda campaign against the President and his deplorable voters, so masking did not become a partisan issue, with a huge number of people denying even the existence of COVID, because the media lies and gaslights them about everything else. In East Asia, the elites and media are more trustworthy, so citizens trusted them more than Americans trusted our elite.

    Their elite and public health ‘experts’ did not spend the first month of the pandemic lying to them, telling them masks did not work to slow the spread of COVID.

    Their permanent government did not see an opportunity to oust the Orange Man Bad, so their FDA-equivalents did not create a defective test kit, and decline to approve others’ tests. That allowed the bad orange man to claim that we did not have a plague on our hands.

    They don’t have a political party whose only goal is breaking the government. A party whose legislative leader’s only idea of how to respond to a plague and the mass unemployment it caused was to suggest a tax cut.

    Their political establishment is no so deficient that a half-witted clown got elected President. A clown who did not wear a mask, because, like his base, the media lies to and about him constantly, so he did not believe that wearing a mask was important. Probably he thought it made him look ghey. So he got COVID, along with many others in the White House. Again, because the partisan media made masking a partisan issue, because they people remembered their partisan propaganda serving the elite. The media spread and amplified the establishments’ early lies about masks.

    Our problems are much deeper and larger in scale than our D- response to COVID. Far worse than merely ignoring SARS. East Asia handled SARS-CoV-2 so well because they are developed, first world countries. We used to be. All COVID did was expose how deep the rot is.

    Replies: @Guy De Champlagne, @utu

    Australia and New Zealand also had competent responses. And non basket case countries in Europe had incompetent responses. A lot of it just comes down to having been scared by SARS and having been spared by SARS.

  301. @utu
    @Steve Sailer

    Obviously there was no Master Plan. The question is why they were all over the map. I am pretty sure they have all kinds of ready to use plans for different epidemic scenarios. All it takes is to go to right filing cabinet somewhere in Pentagon or Homeland Security. Is it possible that our establishment was subjected to disinformation to confuse and delay their response? Is it possible there are moles in the establishment that were sabotaging constructive attempts? Why the alternative of doing nothing as oppose of doing something was even put on the table? Who was behind the do nothing herd immunity meme?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @That Would Be Telling

    I am pretty sure they have all kinds of ready to use plans for different epidemic scenarios. All it takes is to go to right filing cabinet web page somewhere in Pentagon or Homeland Security.

    Our base plan was the one we’d developed and iterated over for many years for the next really bad flu pandemic, and back in the first part of 2020 you could find these plans on the web with a near trivial amount of effort. The best site for the latest iterations was the CDC’s. Respiratory spread virus, naive population, these were proper starting points for public health measures (whatever they might have said about clinical practice was of course wrong, but I’m not sure that was in their remit, and certainly did no harm in and of itself, instead the medical community had to learn lessons written in blood).

    From memory based on what I saved at the end of February, “Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza – United States, 2017” is a or the base plan the CDC explicitly used as their starting point for the COVID-19 plan. You’ll find it all there, extensive discussion of using face masks, “bend the curve” but not using those words, etc. Of course, as the Soviets were said to say, reading our military manuals was useless because in practice our military largely ignores them, as we can see with the early and obviously bogus “masks are useless for the hoi polloi, they must be saved for us health professionals,” a lie Saint Fauci eventually admitted to (he turns out to be a pathological liar).

    Is it possible that our establishment was subjected to disinformation to confuse and delay their response? Is it possible there are moles in the establishment that were sabotaging constructive attempts?

    I consider this an established fact. The CDC did a very poor job with their RT-PCR test, it was not robust and very few labs outside of the CDC could make it work. Then they massively screwed up the manufacturing of them with cross contamination. Due to a certain sort of emergency being declared, no one else was allowed to market tests without FDA Emergency Use Authorization “approval,” which resulted in clear enemy action.

    Among many things, FDA required others’ tests to be able to distinguish between COVID-19, SARS, which died out, and MERS, the ME for Middle East, it comes from camels, and there’s only been two cases in the US; doing this required very scarce time working in BSL-3 labs. From January 10th to the end of February these two units of the government prevented testing for all but 4,000 people, by which time it was too late to try normal public health measures to contain COVID-19.

    Why the alternative of doing nothing as oppose of doing something was even put on the table?

    Floomers, people who dismissed it as nothing more than a bad, not even pandemic flu equivalent. We can see this in Trump early on when he talked so much about the flu, and among the people he consulted were businessmen who it appears gave him this “ride it out” advice.

    So think about the whole context: CDC and FDA blocking effective testing so no one knew how bad it was getting the US, Trump on down were flying blind until sometime in March at the earliest. The same seditious Deep State that had been trying to destroy Trump long before the 2016 election telling him to destroy the economy and stock market, the latter his most important economic metric (although he constantly boasted about “greatest black unemployment figures ever!!!”), that is, preemptively destroy his chance of getting reelected. Megan McCain saying his response “could be the silver bullet that takes out this administration” in early March.

    Who and what was he, with zero STEM knowledge, supposed to believe? Saint Fauci? His head of the CDC, both experts in the almost entirely useless for COVID-19 topic of AIDS/HIV? This also played right into his overweening narcissism.

    • Thanks: utu
    • Replies: @BB753
    @That Would Be Telling

    Fauci should have been fired from his job 30 years ago on account of the Aids fiasco, and been working as a janitor in a lab since then.

  302. @James Braxton
    Great. Now how about a column about the stolen election?

    Replies: @Keypusher

    The election wasn’t stolen. Trump lost. Grow up.

    There, done.

    • Replies: @James Braxton
    @Keypusher

    Thanks. Now that you mention it I'm sure those nice African American ladies in Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Milwaukee were adjudicating those ballots accurately at 3:00 a.m. I guess we'll just have to take their word for it since no observers were there to see it.

    Replies: @Keypusher

  303. @That Would Be Telling
    @HammerJack


    What’s changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.
     
    It's at least equally as likely COVID-19 is a "gain of function" experiment that was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's (WIV) BSL-4 lab facilities. This is true mad scientist "research" where through various means a pathogen is given better functionality in humans, or in one of the first notorious experiments, only done in a BSL-2 lab, bird flu was manually passed through a series of ferrets until it transmitted well in them, which likely would include more mammals like humans, ferrets being a favorite animal model for respiratory viruses.

    The US has done two funding moratoriums on this work which I understand to have expired (but could still informally be in place), for bird flu and SARS like coronaviruses, the Bat Woman of WIV participating in one before it was shut down in the US. Saint Fauci funded the WIV for 4-5 years to collect exotic viruses from bats, and then for a year to do gain of function research. Note we need a world wide end to this sort of research, which some have claimed has never produced any beneficial results, plenty of other countries allow it, and the PRC is hardly the only country to leak pathogens from their labs. And the biomedical community is terrified that politicians will learn just how very dangerous a lot of their work is, how careless they are at times, and that they'll be subject to draconian restrictions. So they're denying any possibility of this being the source of SARS-CoV-2, and so far getting away with it.

    Replies: @415 reasons, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Mr. Anon, @davidgmillsatty, @Stonewall Jackson

    Well stated post. I can’t follow dear Unz’s argument as it usually takes him a thousand words to say anything roundabout, but his statement that covid is blowback to the US is better explained by you than rather the idea that the stupid US military had anything to do with it. It’s biomedical research blowback not some military plot. The Chinese and Pfizer and Fauci want to make money.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
  304. @Whiskey
    Steve, it is not 1989 any more. We know for a fact that the CCP has spies and representatives in every major country, and every organization inside every major country: banks, police forces, national police forces, government ministries, news organizations, scientific bodies, universities, companies, etc. The penetration and control is near total and absolute.

    Now ask yourself, do you trust a vaccine that the CHINESE are not taking, and doubtless have spiked with all sorts of goodies? Things to create infertility, cancer, and the like?

    After all, it has been official Chinese policy to want to take control of North America for resources. No different than Imperial Japan's strategy, that of Hitler, and many others going back to the first empires in Babylonia.

    The Great Reset is part and parcel of the lockdowns, and it is designed to forbid Westerners their own resources so that food and fuel can be shipped to CHINA. So Xi buys social peace in the face of ever tightening controls with more food, that is cheaper, and more fuel, that is cheaper. Its a small planet so for Chinese to live better Americans and Westerners have to eat bugs and drink sewage water. The Oligarchs are totally dependent on the Chinese so that's why they had to get rid of Trump.

    The lockdowns will NEVER end, as they provide the means to enforce the Great Reset. And like Potato Famine Ireland, export food during a famine. Enjoy your bugs Steve!

    Pfizer and Moderna are demonstrably not trustworthy as the likelihood of China doing things to it that allows them to take over North America without a shot is very high to approach 100%. Don't forget that Apple, Wal-Mart, Amazon, Nike, and the rest cannot exist with Chinese slave labor of one sort or another. Indirectly, that's true of Silicon Valley. Computers would cost a tremendous amount without slave labor assembly and manufacture.

    I will not be taking the vaccine, I do not trust one little bit the CCP or Pfizer or Moderna. I don't trust Biden, or the US Government, or Woke Corporate Capital.

    Steve you may trust those guys but it just makes you a chump. A mark. An easy target. Don't be a chump. Its not 1989.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Neoconned

    Now ask yourself, do you trust a vaccine that the CHINESE are not taking

    Coronavirus: China set for 100 million doses of BioNTech vaccine amid roll-out of shots overseas.”

    Of course, this means nothing if you think the CCP has such complete control of the US that they can spike these mRNA vaccines with lethal stuff, without anyone noticing through trivial examination of them. One of their biggest advantages is their extreme simplicity, more so than any other vaccine excepting ones like the PRC’s whole “killed” virus apparently without adjuvants!!! although I haven’t confirmed that, and that info might not be available, this is stuff the CCP considered to be states secrets, their non-cooperation with the rest of the world on everything about COVID-19 is legendary, once you get past the smoke blown by the WHO which they do own.

    But if they have such complete control, they’d already be doing it with children’s vaccines, a huge variety of drugs for which they provide the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), and … have you thought about risk? You think they could avoid nuclear retaliation, or our taking out the Three Gorges Dam which could be done conventionally, which could kill tens of hundreds of millions and otherwise devastate their everything including their economy?

    I really don’t think they’re quite there yet, but they’ll make great strides if Biden becomes President and is not quickly replaced by Team Obama’s Harris.

  305. I was dubious of this virus until I caught it, flat out for a week, this is well worse than the flu.

    Are the ‘elites’ exploiting it? of course, they exploit everything they can.

    • Thanks: Hhsiii
    • Troll: Hippopotamusdrome
  306. @That Would Be Telling
    @anon


    Another thing: there are NO long term studies of the safety of mRNA vaccines (given their novelty). You cannot assert with any confidence that there won’t be long term lasting side effects from the pandademic jab.

    Man up and accept that a cost-benefit analysis of taking this vaccine is the smart approach. If I have a 0.003% chance of dying from the chinese flu, and there’s a novel fast-tracked vaccine using an mRNA delivery system which has ZERO long-term safety studies behind it, I’m not gonna rush to get jabbed.

    All these vax pushers have no rebuttal to this type of healthy skepticism. They can endlessly insist the new vaccine is safe “on paper” over the long term, but no one really knows, especially when the vaccine is created using mRNA genetic building blocks.
     
    The problem here is that you don't know that for a very long time we've been using "vaccines created using mRNA genetic building blocks" in the form of attenuated, de-fanged pathogenic RNA viruses; from a perusal of Wikipedia, measles, mumps, oral polio, rotavirus (but per reports here and on Wikipedia the first vaccine had a nasty side effect requiring surgery to fix), rubella (German measles), the nasal spray flu vaccine, and yellow fever.

    So the idea of injecting mRNA into cells so they can hijack them to produce a full immune system response including killing all those cells dead is not new. The only new things here, which were not entirely experimental before COVID-19 showed up, is the precise mRNA used, a stabilized version of the spike protein, and the precise lipids used to protect the mRNA. In return, even more than modern viral vector vaccines, there's precise control and a massive limitation of the mRNA used. So "on paper" as you put it, the theory is strong.

    But as anyone sane acknowledges, theory must be proven in the real world. So people have been getting dosed with these particular mRNA vaccines since March, in increasing numbers through the Phase I to III trials. And they aren't "approved" as the FDA uses that term quite explicitly in the information provided to those giving and taken the Pfizer/BioNTech, we're at the stage of Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs), where we're willing to take more risks because, you know, thousands of people are dying every day.

    Letting nature take its course has known and unknown risks, and if we fail to keep the curve bent, death rates go up when you run out of hospital capacity, as my very local region recently did (it's down by 1/5th in the last week or so, and we didn't see a Thanksgiving surge). So that's one reason front line healthcare workers are one of the highest priorities, because many if not most if not pretty much all hospitals are staff rather than isolation bed limited, that's true of my local ones, which when we were peaking a little while ago had perhaps a total of 100 staff out with COVID-19, or isolated after an exposure.

    So what's "long term?" The FDA decided two months of safety data from one half of the people who get a vaccine in a Phase III trial is enough for an EUA, based on the claim which seems reasonable that the vast majority of severe side effects show up in a month and a half. From a very unreliable source, the norm is six months, which we'll reach in another three months or so, at which point the FDA would normally consider full licensure for general populations. And doing that based on limited information is required, you simply aren't likely to find "one in a million" bad side effects when you're only testing them on 15,000 people plus or minus. But here we have an early start on Phase IV due to the EUA and the crisis meaning we'll have data from tens of millions getting inoculated before licensure is considered, a lot of extra data.

    But going back to the theory, if you're going to claim these mRNA vaccines are extra dangerous you need hypotheses about why the stabilized spike protein the mRNA makes a relatively few cells produce is, for example, a lot more dangerous than a wild type infection doing the same without stabilization in zillions of cells. Or why the lipid protection in the vaccines is going to be harmful in the long term, which I doubt any of us are qualified to theorize on, except for noting we have a lot of machinery to deal with lipids, and there's no public horror stories about the use of these lipids in the decade or so during which they've been tried on limited numbers of people in multiple Phase I trials.

    More to the point, you need hypotheses about why bad side effects aren't going to show up in 8-2 months so far, but later, and add 4 months before licensure will be considered per my estimate. Better, wait on the data generated from these fairly long periods, and the EUA use in tens of millions. The latter is certainly risky, but so it letting the virus rip through populations, where we also don't know what the long term effects are going to be.

    Replies: @BB753

    More to the point: will YOU get the vaccine, and which one if so?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @BB753


    More to the point: will YOU get the vaccine, and which one if so?
     
    I expect so, but which of the several choices by the time I'm likely to be eligible, being in the very lowest priority group (prior to perhaps a President Harris making white men even lower...) remains to be seen. Read more of my postings [sound of a record scratching.]

    Unless you somehow took from my posting that I'm in a high priority group and thus weighing this decision now, you're a troll, because you completely ignored the section that starts with "But as anyone sane acknowledges, theory must be proven in the real world."

    Which vaccine obviously will be based on the experiences of the all when it becomes a possibility for me. Which I'm not expecting prior to the end of the first quarter of next year, unless anti-vaxxers cause so many people to refuse to take any there's an unexpected surplus, at the same time Pfizer is having supply chain problems (refused help from Operation Warp Speed (OWS)) and Moderna's ability to produce anything at scale is unknown.

    Replies: @BB753

  307. @That Would Be Telling
    @utu


    I am pretty sure they have all kinds of ready to use plans for different epidemic scenarios. All it takes is to go to right filing cabinet web page somewhere in Pentagon or Homeland Security.
     
    Our base plan was the one we'd developed and iterated over for many years for the next really bad flu pandemic, and back in the first part of 2020 you could find these plans on the web with a near trivial amount of effort. The best site for the latest iterations was the CDC's. Respiratory spread virus, naive population, these were proper starting points for public health measures (whatever they might have said about clinical practice was of course wrong, but I'm not sure that was in their remit, and certainly did no harm in and of itself, instead the medical community had to learn lessons written in blood).

    From memory based on what I saved at the end of February, "Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza - United States, 2017" is a or the base plan the CDC explicitly used as their starting point for the COVID-19 plan. You'll find it all there, extensive discussion of using face masks, "bend the curve" but not using those words, etc. Of course, as the Soviets were said to say, reading our military manuals was useless because in practice our military largely ignores them, as we can see with the early and obviously bogus "masks are useless for the hoi polloi, they must be saved for us health professionals," a lie Saint Fauci eventually admitted to (he turns out to be a pathological liar).

    Is it possible that our establishment was subjected to disinformation to confuse and delay their response? Is it possible there are moles in the establishment that were sabotaging constructive attempts?
     
    I consider this an established fact. The CDC did a very poor job with their RT-PCR test, it was not robust and very few labs outside of the CDC could make it work. Then they massively screwed up the manufacturing of them with cross contamination. Due to a certain sort of emergency being declared, no one else was allowed to market tests without FDA Emergency Use Authorization "approval," which resulted in clear enemy action.

    Among many things, FDA required others' tests to be able to distinguish between COVID-19, SARS, which died out, and MERS, the ME for Middle East, it comes from camels, and there's only been two cases in the US; doing this required very scarce time working in BSL-3 labs. From January 10th to the end of February these two units of the government prevented testing for all but 4,000 people, by which time it was too late to try normal public health measures to contain COVID-19.

    Why the alternative of doing nothing as oppose of doing something was even put on the table?
     
    Floomers, people who dismissed it as nothing more than a bad, not even pandemic flu equivalent. We can see this in Trump early on when he talked so much about the flu, and among the people he consulted were businessmen who it appears gave him this "ride it out" advice.

    So think about the whole context: CDC and FDA blocking effective testing so no one knew how bad it was getting the US, Trump on down were flying blind until sometime in March at the earliest. The same seditious Deep State that had been trying to destroy Trump long before the 2016 election telling him to destroy the economy and stock market, the latter his most important economic metric (although he constantly boasted about "greatest black unemployment figures ever!!!"), that is, preemptively destroy his chance of getting reelected. Megan McCain saying his response "could be the silver bullet that takes out this administration" in early March.

    Who and what was he, with zero STEM knowledge, supposed to believe? Saint Fauci? His head of the CDC, both experts in the almost entirely useless for COVID-19 topic of AIDS/HIV? This also played right into his overweening narcissism.

    Replies: @BB753

    Fauci should have been fired from his job 30 years ago on account of the Aids fiasco, and been working as a janitor in a lab since then.

  308. @kaganovitch
    @BB753

    When did Steve Sailer become so naive?

    What, you think the Deep State Davoisie would allow Steve Sailor to publish? Don't you realize Steve Sailor has been replaced by "Steve Sailor"? When did BB753 become so naive?

    Replies: @BB753

    I know you’re joking but Steve Sailer has totally changed since the Wu-Flu scare hit the news.
    To the point that Steve Sailer almost sounded like a Fox News commentator on his interview with Dutton. Has Steve lost his mojo?
    Is it a California thing?

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @BB753

    To the point that Steve Sailer almost sounded like a Fox News commentator on his interview with Dutton. Has Steve lost his mojo? Is it a California thing?

    I'm not so sure of that. Maestro Steve is both by personality and inclination not very well suited to dissidence. It is only his basic honesty that forces him in the dissident direction in these parlous times. His bourgeois persona is always struggling to get out and succeeds at the oddest times.

    Replies: @AKAHorace

  309. @Rockford Tyson
    @Mr. Anon

    Sheer idiocy. Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, "elites" do not benefit from this lockdown at all. The stock of most corporations are down, demand is down, production is down. Except fro maybe a few bankers in Wall Street, economic elites are being crushed by the pandemic. If you think this is good for Sillicon Valley, or for Boeing, or for computer chip manufactuers, you are stupid beyond belief. Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.

    The economy globally will retract 7% this years. Why would elites want to engineer a crisis like this that makes them poorer, that restricts their ability to send money abroad and that ultimately, might even kill them?

    The response to COVID from the government is exactly what you would expect to a pandemic with a degree of severity we haven't seen in 100 years, a virus that no one knew it's etiology, it's infectious capacity, and it's mortality rate. The global President of the Santander bank,one of the richest man in the World, died from COVID. Is this part of the conspiracy, too? To make some of the members of the elite die just to give credibility to the notion that the elite is not conspiring to get the "Great Reset" that the Rightist nutsos like you talk about? You right-wingers are a bunch of delusional idiots.

    Even worse are right-wingers that deny the seriousness of this disease by claiming that the death toll of COVID is much lower because most of the infected people die from other causes, like penumonia. Yeah, except that the person wouldn't have died from pneumonia or even caught it in the first place if it weren't for them being infected from COVID. That is like saying that someone infected with HIV that dies from the Flu did not really die from HIV but from the Flu. The fact is, that same person most likely would have survived the Flu infection if it weren't for them him being infected with HIV in the first place "Unrelated" causes my ass. 2 million dead already and counting. If it weren't for COVID, the vast majority of those people would be alive despite many of them having caught the pneumonia, or the Flu, or the heart failure that "supposedly" killed them.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Mr. Anon, @William Badwhite, @vinteuil

    Sheer idiocy. Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, “elites” do not benefit from this lockdown at all. The stock of most corporations are down, demand is down, production is down. Except fro maybe a few bankers in Wall Street, economic elites are being crushed by the pandemic. If you think this is good for Sillicon Valley, or for Boeing, or for computer chip manufactuers, you are stupid beyond belief. Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.

    The only idiocy I see on display here is your. Gates, Bezos, and the rest of them are making solid bank on this crisis.

    “Unrelated” causes my ass. 2 million dead already and counting. If it weren’t for COVID, the vast majority of those people would be alive despite many of them having caught the pneumonia, or the Flu, or the heart failure that “supposedly” killed them.

    Even without COVID many of them would have been dead within a few years. There are many people who willl die from the response to COVID.

    2 million dead? The Asia Flu killed more than a million people in a World with a population only about 37% of the current population. People didn’t run around like their hair was on fire in 1958 and act like shrieking hysterics as you and your ilk are doing.

  310. @Rockford Tyson
    @Mr. Anon

    Sheer idiocy. Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, "elites" do not benefit from this lockdown at all. The stock of most corporations are down, demand is down, production is down. Except fro maybe a few bankers in Wall Street, economic elites are being crushed by the pandemic. If you think this is good for Sillicon Valley, or for Boeing, or for computer chip manufactuers, you are stupid beyond belief. Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.

    The economy globally will retract 7% this years. Why would elites want to engineer a crisis like this that makes them poorer, that restricts their ability to send money abroad and that ultimately, might even kill them?

    The response to COVID from the government is exactly what you would expect to a pandemic with a degree of severity we haven't seen in 100 years, a virus that no one knew it's etiology, it's infectious capacity, and it's mortality rate. The global President of the Santander bank,one of the richest man in the World, died from COVID. Is this part of the conspiracy, too? To make some of the members of the elite die just to give credibility to the notion that the elite is not conspiring to get the "Great Reset" that the Rightist nutsos like you talk about? You right-wingers are a bunch of delusional idiots.

    Even worse are right-wingers that deny the seriousness of this disease by claiming that the death toll of COVID is much lower because most of the infected people die from other causes, like penumonia. Yeah, except that the person wouldn't have died from pneumonia or even caught it in the first place if it weren't for them being infected from COVID. That is like saying that someone infected with HIV that dies from the Flu did not really die from HIV but from the Flu. The fact is, that same person most likely would have survived the Flu infection if it weren't for them him being infected with HIV in the first place "Unrelated" causes my ass. 2 million dead already and counting. If it weren't for COVID, the vast majority of those people would be alive despite many of them having caught the pneumonia, or the Flu, or the heart failure that "supposedly" killed them.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Mr. Anon, @William Badwhite, @vinteuil

    Why would elites want to engineer a crisis like this that makes them poorer, that restricts their ability to send money abroad and that ultimately, might even kill them?

    Restricts their ability to send money abroad? How?

    Might even kill them? How will masking, locking-down, and ruining the peasants kill the elites?

    You are not making any sense.

  311. @Hannah Katz
    @Dr. X

    I heard Fauci say that even with most of the population vaccinated, we would need to keep wearing masks, social distancing, etc. at least until next winter. F Fauci.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Barnard, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Travis

    Two weeks to flatten the curve

  312. @HammerJack
    What's changed in China? Which of the hideous practices with respect to the animal trade has been curtailed? The Ground Zero wet market is shuttered, but many more operate as though nothing has changed.

    Has anything changed? With increased population density and third world practices, the interval before the next pandemic may be surprisingly brief.

    Replies: @Nodwink, @That Would Be Telling, @Guy De Champlagne, @That Would Be Telling, @Hypnotoad666, @Hapalong Cassidy

    Nothing changed in China. Now Fort Detrick, on the other hand . . .

  313. @Steve Sailer
    @candid_observer

    "For example, if the herd immunity rate is 75%, the infected 25%, and the suppression of transmission is 90%, then the required vaccination rate is 74%."

    Does this assume the already infected get vaccinated at the same rate as the uninfected?

    Replies: @candid_observer

    I’m assuming that the vaccination rate is relevant only for those in the naive population, that is, those who have not been already infected. I’m assuming that all of those who have already been infected are, permanently, no longer infectious. If they happen to get the vaccination, then, obviously, their lack of infectiousness can’t improve from 100%.

    To work through the example, suppose that 25% of the population has been already infected, and that herd immunity is reached when 75% of the entire population is no longer infectious. In order to reach that 75% figure in the entire population, 25% comes from the already infected, and the remaining 50% must come from the naive population — which is 2/3, .6666, of that population. But to get 67% of the naive population non-infectious, we must vaccinate a higher proportion of them, because vaccination presumably does not confer 100% non-infectiousness on its recipients. So we need to factor that dropoff into the formula. So let’s assume that vaccination confers only 90% non-infectiousness. Then, as I quoted, and as the formula I provided entails, we must vaccinate 74% of the naive population. Checking that this works, we can see that .9 * .74 = .666.

    Th virtue of the formula is that it makes it very convenient to update our expectations as the relevant inputs — rate of already infected, herd immunity rate, and suppression of infectiousness in the vaccinated — get better established, or change.

    • Agree: utu
  314. @Mr Mox
    @Johnny Smoggins

    Shhh... Some universal truths are not supposed to be noticed:

    It sounds sexist, and it’s sure to raise the ire of some feminists, but the literature does not lie. Throughout history, groups of people in cohesive social units have suddenly fallen ill or exhibited strange behaviors, from headaches and fainting spells to twitching, shaking and trance states. But whether it’s an outbreak of spirit possession at a shoe factory in Malaysia, a collapsing marching band at a school gala in England or a twitching epidemic in a Louisiana high school, the pattern is invariably the same. Most, and often all of those affected, are females. In fact, of the 2,000+ cases in my files which date back to 1566, this pattern holds true over ninety-nine percent of the time.

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/its-catching/201703/why-are-females-prone-mass-hysteria

    Replies: @Jack D

    During outbreaks [of mass hysteria] girls may insult …. officials and demand change. They have even spat on and slapped their superiors in the face – with no repercussions. The students are able to escape punishment because their actions are blamed on the possessing spirits who are believed to be talking through them

    The spirit of George Floyd speaks….

    BTW, if you Google George Floyd he comes up as “American hip-hop artist”. LOL.

  315. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Jack D


    where I live it is very rare to find ANY white native born Americans working in a nursing home let alone the entire staff
     
    I've noticed this too.

    Why are there so many immigrants (Africans, Filipinos, East Asians, Eastern Euros, and Subcons) working at nursing homes? I noticed the first four ethnic groups overrepresented as RNs and CNAs, with Subcons being highly represented as doctors.

    Interestingly, the owners and managers of the facilities are usually native-born Whites. They're sort of the front men.

    If all of the nursing homes in the US had taken this approach, the rest of us could have probably gone about our business and there would have been very few excess deaths.
     
    That's a very good point.

    Replies: @epebble, @peterike, @Brutusale

    With Subcons being highly suspect as doctors.

    FIFY

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Brutusale

    Nursing home doctor spend too little time per patient.

    You'll see situations in which the doctor shows up for 8 hours per week, but they have 120 patients under their care. So that's 4 minutes per patient. Keep in mind these are patients who are typically in their 70s&80s (sometimes 90s), with various illnesses (diabetes, blood pressure, atherosclerosis, cancer, etc). These people are typically very sick.

    4 minutes per patient per week is a travesty. That's like 3.5 hours per year per patient.

    Presumably, only doctors who are excessively interested in money would work in such an environment.

  316. Everything about this pandemic has been greatly overblown, with more than a few outright lies tossed in. Why? Who?

    People seem to ignore or discount the value of this exercise as preparation for a truly dangerous virus some day in the future.

    The mRNA vaccines have been being developed for many years in the lab and this is a chance to force them into the field on a rush basis. One day the ability to create vaccines rapidly may spell the difference between survival and death for a nation.

    While an eventual reduction in world population is probably a goal of a lot of people in high places, nobody in political power wants to “go first” and see their country reduced and exposed to predation by others.

    I doubt anyone released this virus intentionally, but surely they are not letting the crisis go to waste.

    • Replies: @another fred
    @another fred

    "...nobody in political power wants to “go first” and see their* country reduced and exposed to predation by others."

    *Or a country whose economic functioning they depend on for wealth and power.

  317. @another fred

    Everything about this pandemic has been greatly overblown, with more than a few outright lies tossed in. Why? Who?
     
    People seem to ignore or discount the value of this exercise as preparation for a truly dangerous virus some day in the future.

    The mRNA vaccines have been being developed for many years in the lab and this is a chance to force them into the field on a rush basis. One day the ability to create vaccines rapidly may spell the difference between survival and death for a nation.

    While an eventual reduction in world population is probably a goal of a lot of people in high places, nobody in political power wants to "go first" and see their country reduced and exposed to predation by others.

    I doubt anyone released this virus intentionally, but surely they are not letting the crisis go to waste.

    Replies: @another fred

    “…nobody in political power wants to “go first” and see their* country reduced and exposed to predation by others.”

    *Or a country whose economic functioning they depend on for wealth and power.

  318. @Anonymous
    @rebel yell


    But in the end I will trust my doctor and get the shot. Why? Because you can’t walk around paranoid about everything.
     
    Bad advice. Remember, if you walk around "paranoid" about everything, at least you're walking around.

    I, personally, have in my adult life been (in rough chronological order) almost killed by mistaken medical therapy once, badly defrauded twice, and had my life saved once (hip replacement) and bettered once (ocular surgery). That omits dental care, which has saved my life (by preventing progressive deterioration of health due to a major infection) every time I had a root canal. Which happened periodically until I stopped using sugar in drinks.

    One of my family members was almost killed by serotonin re-uptake drugs (later found to be ineffective therapy) after being badly overworked, losing roughly $80,000 directly and much more indirectly, and becoming apathetic. He was OK once he got several months to rest up.

    From the "Win a few, lose a few" department: Physicians aren't perfect, just very good (usually).
    There are about 2.8 million deaths in the US each year. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
    About 0.8 million of these 2.8 million are iatrogenic.
    https://www.ourcivilisation.com/medicine/usamed/deaths.htm
    https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death/


    Physicians are very smart and well trained, so am I, so are you. They necessarily operate on imperfect information and also make mistakes and are sometimes greedy -- they are human, just like you. Trust a bit, but verify a lot -- or die early, up to you.

    Replies: @JackOH, @Jack D

    About 0.8 million of these 2.8 million are iatrogenic.

    It’s unfair to think of all of these deaths as having been caused by the medical system. Typically the individual in question is already very sick (or at least sick enough to require medical attention, by definition) and instead of curing him the medical care (or lack of medical care) leads to his death but in most (but not all) cases the individual would have died anyway of the underlying condition if left untreated.

    This is the same fallacy as afflicts anti-vaxxers. Your choice is not, take the vaccine and face the unknown risks thereof vs. don’t take it and nothing will happen to you, it is take the vaccine and face the unknown risks thereof vs. don’t take it and possibly get Covid and die. I agree that if the purpose of the shot was just to make you better looking (e.g. Botox) then there’s no way in hell I would risk taking it knowing what you say about human imperfection and greed. However, according to the FDA approved double blind studies, the vaccine offers you a 95% chance of immunity from a disease that has killed millions worldwide. That’s a risk that I am willing to take given what lies on the other side of the balance.

  319. @LRFD
    Let me preface my comments by saying that me and mine are probably going to get the vaccine. My wife might get it next week since she’s a front line medical worker. It will also let us check on her folks who believe everything they see on CNN and haven’t let anyone in to see them since March.

    I’m not convinced that even if everyone got vaccinated it would end the current year madness. There’s lots of uncertainty here. Right now there are (assume an ‘about’ ahead of all numbers that follow) 335M Americans and 55M have gotten the Bug per the CDC. That leaves 280M would are susceptible to it. If herd immunity is 66%, then 168M Americans ( (168+55)/335 = 66%) will need to be made immune in someway for herd immunity to kick in. If it’s 75%, the number is 196M. If it’s 80%, the number is 213M. (I am assuming that once you get the Bug, then you are immune to the Bug. One of many assumptions I’ll be making.)

    The stated efficiency is 95%. Briggs thinks this is too high, and would be ‘pleasantly surprised’ by an efficiency of 50%. (https://wmbriggs.com/post/33887/). He thinks the trial was a best case scenario, and the real world efficiency will be lower due to various reasons.

    We can estimate the number of protected Americans from the vaccine based on the expression:

    Np = (% vaccinated = Vr) * (efficiency) * (Number of uninflected Americans).

    Here I am assuming that the vaccine is only given to Americans who haven’t had the Bug yet. (Probably a bad assumption, but let’s roll with it). The number of protected Americans must be higher than the number that require herd immunity for herd immunity to kick in.

    If the efficiency is 95%, then the Np as a function of percent vaccinated is:
    Vr = 100%, Np = 266M
    Vr = 75%, Np = 200M
    Vr = 50%, Np = 133M
    Vr = 25%, Np = 67M
    For a herd immunity threshold of 80%, more than 80% of the population will need to be vaccinated. I don’t expect that to happen. It seems unreasonable given the current environment.

    Now let’s assume that Briggs is pleasantly surprised and the efficiency is 50%:
    Vr = 100%, Np = 140M
    Vr = 75%, Np = 105M
    Vr = 50%, Np = 70M
    Vr = 25%, Np = 35M
    Not even full vaccination will be enough to trigger herd immunity. Worse, once that becomes clear though various samizdat channels, I expect Vr to drop to lower values. At that point, TPTB try to compel vaccination by various means and cause further loss of confidence. The wreckers get blamed by state propaganda organs. Lockdowns continue with massive federal support and pressure. More bad blood develops between Red and Blue. 2020 (when we could all agree that Tiger King was incredible) looks quaint in comparison to 2021.

    As for me, I think that I’ll buy a standing desk for the home office as my Christmas present.

    Replies: @Jack D

    I looked at the Briggs blog post and frankly he pulls the 50% number out of his ass. It’s true that real life efficacy tends to be somewhat lower than in trials but he cuts the efficacy in half based on nothing. I don’t know what the actual reduction will be but you can’t just pull numbers out of the air and have any credibility. I’m too lazy to research what the real life vs. trial efficacy haircut has been for other vaccines but I’d be shocked if it was half.

  320. @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1339382321154318337

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Breaking News [from the NYT]: U.S. hospitals are discovering that some vials of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine contain extra doses, and the FDA said it was acceptable to use them.

    It’s kinda of a bad headline, in part based on simple arithmetic beyond the NYT staff’s level. First see the info about the vaccine in the FDA’s EUA page. After you defrost a vial, you dilute the contents with 1.8 mL of 0.9% Sodium Chloride Injection, USP, which officially yields 5 0.3 mL doses. Using division, then being just a little over in the saline solution you add, and/or just a little under in the doses, would allow you to easily scavenge a 6th dose from the vial, or if not, you’ve still got a near full 6th dose.

    These should be close enough to the official full quantity it won’t matter for the purposes of getting younger people with good immune systems vaccinated. On the other hand, if you’re savaging a 7th dose either there was too much original material in the vial, which should be a mostly harmless error in its filling, but concerning if there’s also vials with too little (but if responsible, you always bias towards too much by just a little bit), or you used way too much in the initial dilution. Which is still probably going to work out in the end, but I’d really try to avoid this for any elderly getting the vaccine.

    • Thanks: MEH 0910
  321. @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    @That Would Be Telling

    “ it’s clear almost all those on iSteve simply aren’t going to be eligible for the first tranche of mRNA vaccines”

    You underestimate iSteve’s military readership

    Replies: @res

    You underestimate iSteve’s military readership

    Any further thoughts on that? What kind or proportions do you think apply for:
    ex/military as share of iSteve readers/commenters
    iSteve readers/commenters as share of current military

    Do iSteve readers in the military tend to be open about it?

  322. @Buffalo Joe
    @That Would Be Telling

    That Would....., Chicago schools have lost 15,000 students over the last year and yet the school budget went up and no teachers laid off . That tells you the clout that union teachers have in dem cities.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Orville H. Larson

    ” . . . That tells you the clout that union teachers have in dem cities.”

    Ah, yes, the teachers unions, those bastions of sloth and incompetence. They’re an integral part of the public (mis)education system. The adults in the system–teachers, school superintendents, paper-shuffling bureaucrats et al.–get theirs, while the kids get dumber and dumber. . . .

  323. @Anon
    @stealth

    Right, one description of 2020 could be "Nietzsche's Last Men handle a crisis".

    Replies: @Wielgus

    I have definitely not been noticing the Übermensch this year…

  324. @AndrewR
    @Jake

    Let's not forget that in February and early March, the Democrats were telling everyone to go French kiss random Chinese people to fight xenophobia.

    Now they're saying we have to extend these absurd restrictions forever unless everyone gets vaccinated (possibly annually). And even that won't be enough, because they'll use flu outbreaks to justify tyrannical measures. Tens of thousands of Americans have died of the flu annually for generations. No one seemed to care that much but Democrats will rabidly insist on eliminating flu deaths just like they treat every mass shooting (outside of the ghetto) as apocalyptic. At some point we will have to do things to stand up to the Democrats that would make Steve reach for the smelling salts.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Let’s not forget that in February and early March, the Democrats were telling everyone to go French kiss random Chinese people to fight xenophobia.

    I’d rather Chinese-checker random Frenchwomen!

    Don’t the Russians have some equivalent to our term “Chinese fire drill” involving restaurants?

  325. @Rockford Tyson
    @Mr. Anon

    Sheer idiocy. Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, "elites" do not benefit from this lockdown at all. The stock of most corporations are down, demand is down, production is down. Except fro maybe a few bankers in Wall Street, economic elites are being crushed by the pandemic. If you think this is good for Sillicon Valley, or for Boeing, or for computer chip manufactuers, you are stupid beyond belief. Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.

    The economy globally will retract 7% this years. Why would elites want to engineer a crisis like this that makes them poorer, that restricts their ability to send money abroad and that ultimately, might even kill them?

    The response to COVID from the government is exactly what you would expect to a pandemic with a degree of severity we haven't seen in 100 years, a virus that no one knew it's etiology, it's infectious capacity, and it's mortality rate. The global President of the Santander bank,one of the richest man in the World, died from COVID. Is this part of the conspiracy, too? To make some of the members of the elite die just to give credibility to the notion that the elite is not conspiring to get the "Great Reset" that the Rightist nutsos like you talk about? You right-wingers are a bunch of delusional idiots.

    Even worse are right-wingers that deny the seriousness of this disease by claiming that the death toll of COVID is much lower because most of the infected people die from other causes, like penumonia. Yeah, except that the person wouldn't have died from pneumonia or even caught it in the first place if it weren't for them being infected from COVID. That is like saying that someone infected with HIV that dies from the Flu did not really die from HIV but from the Flu. The fact is, that same person most likely would have survived the Flu infection if it weren't for them him being infected with HIV in the first place "Unrelated" causes my ass. 2 million dead already and counting. If it weren't for COVID, the vast majority of those people would be alive despite many of them having caught the pneumonia, or the Flu, or the heart failure that "supposedly" killed them.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Mr. Anon, @William Badwhite, @vinteuil

    The stock of most corporations are down

    Cool rant Bro, but facts are your friend:

    The S&P 500 is up 16.6% year-to-date. The performance since the end of Q1 is even more astounding.

    The all-country world ex-US is up over 4%, more since the end of Q1.

    The Europe, Asia, Far East is up 4.25%, more since the end of Q1.

    Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.

    Citation needed. Lets take Bezos for example: Amazon stock is up over 75% in 2020. How about Gates? Microsoft stock is up over 40%.

    You right-wingers are a bunch of delusional idiots.

    You left-wingers are stupid, angry, and vicious. When you’re able to construct an argument that isn’t both wrong and filled with ad hominem, you may be ready to post here. Until then please go back to Slate or Yahoo News or wherever you came from.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @Neil Templeton
    @William Badwhite

    Don't forget the companion fallacies to ad hominem, appeals to authority and emotion. Where are the statistical rebuttals to the alleged election anomalies?

    Replies: @vinteuil, @William Badwhite

    , @Rockford Tyson
    @William Badwhite

    "Cool rant Bro, but facts are your friend:

    The S&P 500 is up 16.6% year-to-date. The performance since the end of Q1 is even more astounding.

    The all-country world ex-US is up over 4%, more since the end of Q1.

    The Europe, Asia, Far East is up 4.25%, more since the end of Q1."

    Another idiot. The S&P reflects the value of mostly financial stocks. Do you really think that the stock of, say, Boeing, for instance, had a dramatic decline in the number of orders, for obvious reasons. Saying that the pandemic is good for the economy is retarded.

    "Citation needed. Lets take Bezos for example: Amazon stock is up over 75% in 2020. How about Gates? Microsoft stock is up over 40%"

    Aamzon is obviously an exception. You want a citation? What about GDP variation, moron? That reflects *all* economic activity, and GDP is down.

    "You left-wingers are stupid, angry, and vicious. When you’re able to construct an argument that isn’t both wrong and filled with ad hominem, you may be ready to post here. Until then please go back to Slate or Yahoo News or wherever you came from"

    FY! You are wrong about 100% of what you just wrote, evident by the rate of GDP expansion. Yeah, liberals are so "stupid" that the vast majority of Harvard graduates, professional and university professors are liberals. Dumbass.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @William Badwhite

  326. @ferd
    @Steve Sailer

    Pandemic analysis has exposed an interesting fault line between conservatives who are intelligent and innumerate, and those who can read data. This has been a huge theme in my life since March.

    For God's sake, look at the graphs in Steve's piece.

    Replies: @utu

    “…intelligent and innumerate, and those who can read data…” – There is also a bias that might the dominant factor impeding the ability of reading the data. Having a libertarian involved in designing the countermeasures against the epidemic is like having a pacifist conscientious objector at the war council.

    • Replies: @Jtgw
    @utu

    Which libertarian was involved in designing countermeasures?

  327. I have experienced more than one Boomer recently tell me that they hate Covid and the lock downs because either a. it threatens their lifespan or b. they only have 10 years left to live and one of those years has been taken away from them. It is always about them, never mention the kids being locked down not learning anything, masked like Harrison Bergeron. This is the fundamental problem, we are led intellectually and culturally by the Boomer class coming to terms with and terrified of their own mortality. It is interesting that the only exception to this are the religious ones, who have a “such is life” attitude and actually care about their families and children and not just themselves. I am emerging from this crisis quite disgusted with this generation. A reminder also that there was a significant flu during Woodstock but these people partied anyway and the Silents seemed to handle the situation with the appropriate restraint.

  328. @res
    @Steve Sailer

    I tend to think you are right, but am curious about That Would Be Telling's response.

    For those who don't see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 - 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 - 3. Countermeasures sufficient to slow COVID-19 (lockdowns, masks, etc.) are likely to reduce the effective R of the flu below 1 at which point it stops spreading freely (there might still be occasional cases).

    It is also worth looking at the CDC flu tracker data from March-April.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @utu, @Polynikes, @Hypnotoad666, @danand

    For those who don’t see why, the typical R0 of the flu is something like 1.5 – 1.8 while COVID-19 is more like 2.5 – 3.

    Res — Serious questions if you or anybody knows the answers:

    1. How does the CDC actually know the R0 of covid (or anything else for that mater)? Do they just guess how many people had it at T = 0; and then guess again how many people had it at T= 0 + x; and then guess a third time at how long it takes between infections; and then extrapolate an R0 guess from all those guesses?

    2. What is Covid’s R0 in time? To project the rate of future infections doesn’t R0 need to have a time component — i.e., the amount of time that it takes for each new infection to generate the projected 1.8, 2.5, or whatever number of additional infections. Otherwise, it’s like asking how fast your money will grow at 180% compound interest, without specifying whether the interest rate is per day, per week, or per year. The most useful metric would be the expected doubling time for covid infections in a population. Has anyone ever calculated this supposed doubling time for covid? If so, what is it?

    3. Why won’t we quantify the costs and benefits of proposed interventions on R0? You’d think we’d be able to arbitrarily define a measuring unit. Such as one “social transmission opportunity equivalent (STOE)” or the like, that equated to, say, the odds of infection to an average health American from being in an enclosed room with an infected person for 30 minutes. We could then figure out how much eliminating one of these units is worth statistically in terms of reducing expected infections over time (per #1 and #2, above). And then we could estimate how many of these units are avoided by any particular proposed intervention, such as requiring masks, shutting down indoor dining, outdoor dining, bars, church services, sports, etc.

    All this stuff seems elemental. But our “experts” seem instead to be running around like the proverbial chickens with no heads.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Hypnotoad666

    1. How does the CDC actually know the R0 of covid (or anything else for that mater)? - You estimate it from daily infections or deaths plot and you need to know what is the time one remains infectious. The latter is expressed as a gamma probability density function.

    2. What is Covid’s R0 in time? - Yes R0 is changing in the course of epidemic. The R0 you need to estimate the herd immunity threshold is larger than any value of R0 you measure during the epidemic because people behavior is different in epidemic mode than in normal life.

    The most useful metric would be the expected doubling time for covid infections in a population. -The doubling time and R0 are directly related.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  329. @Rockford Tyson
    @Mr. Anon

    Sheer idiocy. Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, "elites" do not benefit from this lockdown at all. The stock of most corporations are down, demand is down, production is down. Except fro maybe a few bankers in Wall Street, economic elites are being crushed by the pandemic. If you think this is good for Sillicon Valley, or for Boeing, or for computer chip manufactuers, you are stupid beyond belief. Most of the plutocrats are losing money like there is no tomorrow with this pandemic.

    The economy globally will retract 7% this years. Why would elites want to engineer a crisis like this that makes them poorer, that restricts their ability to send money abroad and that ultimately, might even kill them?

    The response to COVID from the government is exactly what you would expect to a pandemic with a degree of severity we haven't seen in 100 years, a virus that no one knew it's etiology, it's infectious capacity, and it's mortality rate. The global President of the Santander bank,one of the richest man in the World, died from COVID. Is this part of the conspiracy, too? To make some of the members of the elite die just to give credibility to the notion that the elite is not conspiring to get the "Great Reset" that the Rightist nutsos like you talk about? You right-wingers are a bunch of delusional idiots.

    Even worse are right-wingers that deny the seriousness of this disease by claiming that the death toll of COVID is much lower because most of the infected people die from other causes, like penumonia. Yeah, except that the person wouldn't have died from pneumonia or even caught it in the first place if it weren't for them being infected from COVID. That is like saying that someone infected with HIV that dies from the Flu did not really die from HIV but from the Flu. The fact is, that same person most likely would have survived the Flu infection if it weren't for them him being infected with HIV in the first place "Unrelated" causes my ass. 2 million dead already and counting. If it weren't for COVID, the vast majority of those people would be alive despite many of them having caught the pneumonia, or the Flu, or the heart failure that "supposedly" killed them.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Mr. Anon, @William Badwhite, @vinteuil

    Except for a few special interests that are getting bailed out and would have gone bankrupt, like some airliners and banks that were already in pretty bad financial situation, “elites” do not benefit from this lockdown at all.

    Don’t be obtuse.

    The political elite are gaining unprecedented power over many aspects of everyday life – power that they will never voluntarily give up.

    The media elite are gaining unprecedented power over the dissemination – and, especially, the suppression – of information.

    The big distributors of consumer goods are gaining unprecedented market share, wiping out the little ones.

    The stock of most corporations are down…

    You mean like Amazon? Like Walmart? Like Target?

    I mean, WTF, dude – the market keeps setting record highs.

    “Sheer idiocy,” indeed.

  330. @William Badwhite
    @Rockford Tyson


    The stock of most corporations are down
     
    Cool ra