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Horry County, SC: 12th worst hellhole in America?

In Taki’s Magazine, I have a quite long column up:

Moneyball for Real Estate
by Steve Sailer
May 13, 2015

Where’s the best place to move for your children’s sake?

After a couple of years of sniping at obvious absurdities, I finally dove deep into economist Raj Chetty’s colossal IRS 1040 data trove (comparing parents’ income in 1996-2000 to their kids’ income in 2011-12) to see what can be salvaged: what’s merely an artifact of Chetty’s analytical weaknesses and what’s actually meaningful?

For example, here’s a table I made up of Chetty’s Worst 25 Counties in America for the offspring of families that were in the lower half of the income distribution in the later 1990s:

Screenshot 2015-05-12 22.35.22

I also looked in depth at the 25 Best Counties for blue collar families and the worst and best counties for upper middle class families. Doing this kind of place by place analysis reveals several patterns for understanding what’s fairly permanent and what’s ephemera in the results from Chetty’s vast undertaking.

Other questions considered include: Why, among large counties, is DuPage, which is just west of O’Hare airport, the best for the working class, and Fairfax, which is just west of the Pentagon, the best for the Upper Middle Class? And why is best county for the working class, Sioux County, Iowa, the utopian doppelganger of the worst, Shannon County, South Dakota?

Read the whole thing there.

 
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  1. Lot says:

    If you’re in San Diego, the best place for kids is Carmel Valley, with Poway a close second. In greater LA, Palos Verdes if you have the cash, otherwise Simi Valley.

    Not to denigrate parents elsewhere, but these places have the best ratio of good schools and child activities to hip adult fun.

    • Replies: @Paul
    I don't think you're right about Palos Verdes. The mexicans legal and illegal, that impregnate San Pedro, as well as the ex convicts that are dumped off there from LA county can leak into Palos Verdes to add some flavor flav.

    Some mexicans dumped a dead body up there not long ago. They also converge on free public resources such as the basketball courts, and parks, they even fall off the cliffs over there occasionally.

    It's turned a little cheesy. Palos Verdes isn't what it used to be. You move there, you make some social concessions to the riff raff. Like locking your doors, day or night. You can't fully relax there. If you're looking for that, try up the coast, like Santa Barbara. That city is like entering a time warp. It's the closest experience you'll have to being Marty McFly. It's the city integration forgot.

    , @Whiskey
    Isn't Simi Valley receiving lots of Blacks fleeing rapidly Latinoizing South Central?
  2. I think I’d pick a rural town with a land grant university. Low housing costs, culture, and high performing schools because of all the professor’s kids.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Neal Stephenson talks a lot about Northern college towns as a pretty great place to a smart kid growing up.
    , @hodag
    A lot of unis have "Labratory" schools for teaching uni education majors and schooling the kids of faculty while keeping their kids away from public schools. In Chicago the U of C lab school is the most fashionable nowadays, since the Obama girls once and Rahm's kids go there now. Latin is advertising, on busses. St. Ignatius is still there and has the largest alumni network who looks out for each other, likewise Fenwick in Oak Park.
    , @Realist
    That would be an excellent choice.
    , @E. Rekshun
    I think I’d pick a rural town with a land grant university. Low housing costs, culture, and high performing schools because of all the professor’s kids.

    Yes. Not exactly rural, but I went to grad school at the University of FL, then landed a decent well-paying job there a few years later. I had a great couple of years, but eventually grabbed another job opportunity a couple hundred miles away. I've been trying to get back for the past ten years. A lot of employment opportunities associated with the university (45K students) and large medical facilities, including a VA. For me, the social activities were plentiful, inexpensive, and a lot of fun. The real estate is relatively low cost, but the public schools are average at best. Oh, and the city of Gainesville is 23% black so, well, you know.
  3. OT:

    Linus Torvalds has a very different teaching philosophy to Bill Gates:

    “not every child should be taught to program…only people with the capacity to understand should learn.”

    Compare that to the “be like me” bill gates approach:

    • Replies: @Numinous
    If machines and automation are really going to take over the world, all kids ought to have basic programming skills at least. There are easy programming jobs (basically, writing configuration files) and hard programming jobs (writing operating systems, like Torvalds does). It's like the difference between car mechanics and design engineers. Semi-skilled vs skilled.
    , @Hal
    Spot on, Hombre.

    Linus Torvalds has a very different teaching philosophy to (sic) Bill Gates:
    “not every child should be taught to program…only people with the capacity to understand should learn.”
     
    Teaching every kid to think to the best of their ability would be considered raw racism, but only to those who hold dear the delusion that there is no difference.

    Teaching every kid to think to the best of their ability means testing for the ability to abstract before allowing into algebra, testing for the ability to synthesize before allowing into geometry, and testing for mastery of algebra and geometry before allowing into higher math.

    Those who can't pass the math course entrance exam get to spend time learning how to add, subtract, divide and multiply without a calculator. Those who refuse to master arithmetic are sent to the fields for meaningful re-education in hoeing, digging and hauling.

    Obviously, with the displacement of all those talented runners and jumpers away from boring colleges and into the agricultural training sector, we would need to develop an amateur sports network to rival the NCAA. Call it the NFNAA. (National Field Help Athletic Association)
  4. Paul says:
    @Lot
    If you're in San Diego, the best place for kids is Carmel Valley, with Poway a close second. In greater LA, Palos Verdes if you have the cash, otherwise Simi Valley.

    Not to denigrate parents elsewhere, but these places have the best ratio of good schools and child activities to hip adult fun.

    I don’t think you’re right about Palos Verdes. The mexicans legal and illegal, that impregnate San Pedro, as well as the ex convicts that are dumped off there from LA county can leak into Palos Verdes to add some flavor flav.

    Some mexicans dumped a dead body up there not long ago. They also converge on free public resources such as the basketball courts, and parks, they even fall off the cliffs over there occasionally.

    It’s turned a little cheesy. Palos Verdes isn’t what it used to be. You move there, you make some social concessions to the riff raff. Like locking your doors, day or night. You can’t fully relax there. If you’re looking for that, try up the coast, like Santa Barbara. That city is like entering a time warp. It’s the closest experience you’ll have to being Marty McFly. It’s the city integration forgot.

    • Replies: @Laguna Beach Fogey
    I was in Santa Barbara a couple of years ago and was shocked at the number of hippies and homeless wandering the streets.
    , @jeremiahjohnbalaya
    There are almost no blacks in santa barbara but there is an active anti-gang unit keeping the mexican gangs in check.
    , @Jefferson
    " If you’re looking for that, try up the coast, like Santa Barbara. That city is like entering a time warp. It’s the closest experience you’ll have to being Marty McFly. It’s the city integration forgot."

    Dennis Miller lives in Santa Barbara.
  5. @Lot
    If you're in San Diego, the best place for kids is Carmel Valley, with Poway a close second. In greater LA, Palos Verdes if you have the cash, otherwise Simi Valley.

    Not to denigrate parents elsewhere, but these places have the best ratio of good schools and child activities to hip adult fun.

    Isn’t Simi Valley receiving lots of Blacks fleeing rapidly Latinoizing South Central?

    • Replies: @Sojourner
    So far, no. I've seen maybe 5 blacks in Simi in the past year I've lived here.
    , @Jefferson
    "Isn’t Simi Valley receiving lots of Blacks fleeing rapidly Latinoizing South Central?"

    Why would Blacks want to move to Simi Valley when most White voters in that city vote Republican and it is home to the Ronald Reagan library. Those are the wrong types of White people for Blacks to live in close proximity to. Blacks do best when they live in close proximity to White Atheists who hate Christianity and White butch dykes who like to get manly looking haircuts to look like Janet Reno and Anne Hathaway in "Interstellar".

  6. @Boomstick
    I think I'd pick a rural town with a land grant university. Low housing costs, culture, and high performing schools because of all the professor's kids.

    Neal Stephenson talks a lot about Northern college towns as a pretty great place to a smart kid growing up.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Neal Stephenson talks a lot about Northern college towns as a pretty great place to [be] a smart kid growing up.

     

    David Foster Wallace also grew up in a northern college town, i.e. Champaign-Urbana. But I guess the results there were mixed at best . . . .

    Also, it was good to see the Sioux County shout-out in your piece. I've known for a long time that it's not quite like most other places, but it's interesting to see you note and remark upon its status as an extreme outlier.

    , @Chrisnonymous
    It's a good article, although I hope you address Ezra's point about regression and siblings.

    ...or somebody else figures out a biochemical solution for Native Americans’ propensity toward alcoholism.
     
    When I was in Mongolia--which also has a major problem with alcoholism--some of them were going across the border into Russia, where a doctor was experimenting with putting something in the body which was described as a "chip". I'm assuming this was something like a birth control implant that was time-releasing a drug like ReVia or Campral or Antabuse. Anyhow, it seemed to work.
  7. P says:

    For a superior Indian-American economist, I recommend Bhashkar Mazumder. He studies the same topics as Chetty, but he’s more careful and less populist and his methods are more straightforward. Here’s his paper on black-white differences in intergenerational mobility. Take a look at the Bell Curve -type analysis of upward and downward mobility in panels E and F in figure 9.

    • Replies: @MW
    From the Mazumder article you linked:

    As with previous studies linking AFQT scores to racial differences in adult outcomes (e.g. Neal and Johnson, 1996; Cameron and Heckman, 2001), I do not interpret these scores as measuring innate endowments but rather they reflect the accumulated differences in family background and other influences.
     
    Oh well. He still manages to make some important points.
  8. @Steve Sailer
    Neal Stephenson talks a lot about Northern college towns as a pretty great place to a smart kid growing up.

    Neal Stephenson talks a lot about Northern college towns as a pretty great place to [be] a smart kid growing up.

    David Foster Wallace also grew up in a northern college town, i.e. Champaign-Urbana. But I guess the results there were mixed at best . . . .

    Also, it was good to see the Sioux County shout-out in your piece. I’ve known for a long time that it’s not quite like most other places, but it’s interesting to see you note and remark upon its status as an extreme outlier.

    • Replies: @Abe

    David Foster Wallace also grew up in a northern college town, i.e. Champaign-Urbana
     
    Champ-bana- where 2001's HAL was supposedly created- had large swaths of public housing back last time I visited. Sent a friend who lived there at the time a news story about a "polar bear hunting" incident.
    , @Uptown Resident
    DFW's suicide was the result of a mental illness and mismanaged SSRIs, not of living in central Illinois. I've heard wonderful things about DFW's father, a professor of philosophy at UIC renowned for his brilliant lecturing style and personal kindness.
  9. Doesn’t surprise me that a conservative Dutch county is tops for average Americans. I recently moved to a county that has a large conservative Dutch contingent, and their town, which is right on the Canadian border, is really nice. It’s also surprisingly wealthy for a rural town.

    I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn’t face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it.

    Speaking of which, I can say from personal experience growing up in an integrated neighborhood that this line blacks have about white people wanting to touch their hair is pure projection. My sister is a real light blonde, like the type you only see commonly in places like Finland, and blacks were constantly pawing at her hair.

    I’ll bet Chetty would be horrified if someone presented data that showed that the blonder a county, the better it is for working and middle class people, but I’ll bet it’s true.

    BTW, college towns ain’t what they used to be. I currently live in one, and the people who run colleges these days deliberately set themselves apart from locals. There’s more of a “town and gown” atmosphere than there used to be.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    I recently moved to a county that has a large conservative Dutch contingent, and their town, which is right on the Canadian border, is really nice.

     

    Bill, I've been to that town, and I agree it's lovely. It would fit right into Sioux County.
    , @Anonymous
    Bill, would you care to comment a little more about discrimination against your blonde kids? I would have thought that in the Pacific Northwest, blonde children would be fairly common, even if their hair would turn darker after puberty.

    Unless you mean you moved there from LA or somewhere.
    , @Jefferson
    "I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn’t face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it."

    Would you say in big cities that blond kids get bullied just as equally as ginger haired kids, obese kids, and nerdy geek kids?
  10. • Replies: @Nathan Wartooth
    Steve sure has aged a bit. Being on the dark side really ages a man.
  11. @Bill P
    Doesn't surprise me that a conservative Dutch county is tops for average Americans. I recently moved to a county that has a large conservative Dutch contingent, and their town, which is right on the Canadian border, is really nice. It's also surprisingly wealthy for a rural town.

    I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn't face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it.

    Speaking of which, I can say from personal experience growing up in an integrated neighborhood that this line blacks have about white people wanting to touch their hair is pure projection. My sister is a real light blonde, like the type you only see commonly in places like Finland, and blacks were constantly pawing at her hair.

    I'll bet Chetty would be horrified if someone presented data that showed that the blonder a county, the better it is for working and middle class people, but I'll bet it's true.

    BTW, college towns ain't what they used to be. I currently live in one, and the people who run colleges these days deliberately set themselves apart from locals. There's more of a "town and gown" atmosphere than there used to be.

    I recently moved to a county that has a large conservative Dutch contingent, and their town, which is right on the Canadian border, is really nice.

    Bill, I’ve been to that town, and I agree it’s lovely. It would fit right into Sioux County.

  12. I think Steve Sailer makes a good point about some of the consequences of Chetty’s ex post reasoning, but I am not sure he has quite captured the nature of the thought experiment that Chetty is running.

    Chetty and Hendren measures the impact of growing up in a certain place by comparing the adult incomes of people who moved to that place with the income of their older brothers and sisters who grew up someplace else. This means that some of the pure parent effects should wash out. For instance, I think their results are exempt from the criticism that the results are just a regression to the racial mean, since the older brother should be the same race as the younger brother. Also, it might be true that loser parents are more likely to move to Loserville, but that doesn’t explain why older sister doesnt have the same loser stink as younger sister.

    It is probably true that younger sister who grew up in a Badlucksville is probably more attached and didn’t move out after all of the work dried up like older brother who never came back after the Army.

    • Replies: @P
    I agree that the sibling analysis constitutes Chetty's best evidence for the causal influence on human capital of local environments. His analysis is so complex though that I don't quite understand it yet. There are lots of potential confounds that make the results difficult to interpret:

    1) Many of the best and worst places identified by Chetty seem to be explainable by race effects and local economic booms and busts. To what extent do these drive his overall results?

    2) Chetty's sample is weird in that it consists entirely of people who choose to relocate for whatever reason, i.e., it's selected and unrepresentative and the results cannot really be generalized to the entire population.

    3) The IRS income data have been shown to be rather unreliable elsewhere.

    4) Income was measured when the participants were between 24 and 30, and is therefore a poor indicator of lifetime income.

    5) While Chetty et al. claim that the study is about the influence of neighborhoods on children, they actually analyze commuting zones and counties which can be very large and include very different neighborhoods, making the claim of neighborhood effects dubious.

    6) Race is not observed in Chetty's data, so differences in relocation effects between races cannot be calculated.
  13. Wow, if Chetty includes Orange County NC on his bad-for-rich-folks list, his methodology is even worse than I thought. Chapel Hill, the biggest town in the OC, is a wealthy liberal university town. It would probably remind Steve of his California home in that it’s pretty hard to get things built there–consequently, there’s a Walmart just over the county border in Chatham County and another Walmart just over the border in Durham County. And the two Chapel Hill public high schools have more national merit semifinalists than any other public school (and most other private schools) save the NC School of Science and Math, which is a statewide magnet.

  14. @Boomstick
    I think I'd pick a rural town with a land grant university. Low housing costs, culture, and high performing schools because of all the professor's kids.

    A lot of unis have “Labratory” schools for teaching uni education majors and schooling the kids of faculty while keeping their kids away from public schools. In Chicago the U of C lab school is the most fashionable nowadays, since the Obama girls once and Rahm’s kids go there now. Latin is advertising, on busses. St. Ignatius is still there and has the largest alumni network who looks out for each other, likewise Fenwick in Oak Park.

  15. “many will spend huge amounts of money for more desirable locations (which are summarized and euphemized with the shorthand phrase “good schools”)”: the same is true in England. I tease such people by referring to their children’s education as “semi-private”.

    There’s one trick you can use in England that isn’t available in the US. There are many church schools which are funded by the state – mainly Roman Catholic and Church of England – and they are usually sufficiently conservative that your children can get a better schooling compared to that of many state schools, and it’s free. Well, free in terms of money. You have to go to church and pretend to be a believer, of course, but what the hell, it’s what people do at weddings and christenings anyway.

    • Replies: @Another Canadian
    "There are many church schools which are funded by the state – mainly Roman Catholic and Church of England – and they are usually sufficiently conservative that your children can get a better schooling compared to that of many state schools, and it’s free."

    Yes, we use that trick in Canada. Our Catholic school board is separate from the public board but funded by the province. The Catholic board is usually a bit more conservative thus the curriculum has more wheat than chaff.
  16. @anon
    OT:

    Linus Torvalds has a very different teaching philosophy to Bill Gates:

    "not every child should be taught to program...only people with the capacity to understand should learn."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KfJiWR1FPw

    Compare that to the "be like me" bill gates approach:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKIu9yen5nc

    If machines and automation are really going to take over the world, all kids ought to have basic programming skills at least. There are easy programming jobs (basically, writing configuration files) and hard programming jobs (writing operating systems, like Torvalds does). It’s like the difference between car mechanics and design engineers. Semi-skilled vs skilled.

    • Replies: @rod1963
    That is so 1990.

    The fact is corporations are rapidly off-shoring technical work to India or importing foreigners here to the U.S. to take engineering and coding jobs. This applies to the medical and science fields as well. In short STEM is slowly being closed off to native born Americans.

    BTW it's being ongoing since the 1990's but few pay attention to this, because it brings up the ugly fact the business community is waging war on us.

    Instead Look for professions that can't be off-shored like plumbing, HVAC or a electrician. And it doesn't mean you can't learn coding and engineering as a hobby.
  17. The economy of Atlantic County, NJ, (#24 on your list), depends largely on its casinos, which used to have a near monopoly on casino gambling in the northeast states. During the years between 1996 and 2012, however, those casinos faced increasing competition from new casinos in neighboring states.

  18. I think the regression towards the mean concept Mr. Sailer raises (combined with the effect of the housing boom/bust) is epitomized by PG County just outside of DC. It tipped from majority white to majority black in the 1990s and in the early 2000s was heralded by the local press as the wealthiest majority black county in the US, where blacks could move and live in prosperous and well-tended neighborhoods and show that they’ve made it (this did not include the portion inside the Beltway, often referred to the 9th Ward of DC). Even saying “PG” instead of “Prince Georges” became occasion to accuse someone of being racist because it showed disrespect to this miracle on the Potomac.

    Fast forward to the present and one can read anguished articles in the local press and WP about how urban problems new residents thought they were escaping have crept in, there are thousands of foreclosures and homes people bought pre-recession are now worth only half of that. Lots of external explanations are bandied about but at the end of the day this is a majority black county that is ruled by the black political class (and notoriously corrupt). There was a brief window where it appeared that the black government worker class had built a counterpart to Montgomery County next door but reality has set in. But it can’t be the fault of the people who live there…

  19. J says: • Website

    As always, Sailer’s analysis is excellent and unique.

    In the ranking table, income differences of 20% are not really significant because of the local cost of living. Obviously, if one grows up in a place with poor, ignorant people, his future income will suffer, but not much.

    A more interesting question is where to move if one wants legitimate grandchildren. The IRS megadata may be useless to find the answer, because it may be linked to the degree of religious observance.

  20. You can start by looking at a demographic map
    http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/index.html
    With it you can even play games like Find the Prison

  21. @Paul
    I don't think you're right about Palos Verdes. The mexicans legal and illegal, that impregnate San Pedro, as well as the ex convicts that are dumped off there from LA county can leak into Palos Verdes to add some flavor flav.

    Some mexicans dumped a dead body up there not long ago. They also converge on free public resources such as the basketball courts, and parks, they even fall off the cliffs over there occasionally.

    It's turned a little cheesy. Palos Verdes isn't what it used to be. You move there, you make some social concessions to the riff raff. Like locking your doors, day or night. You can't fully relax there. If you're looking for that, try up the coast, like Santa Barbara. That city is like entering a time warp. It's the closest experience you'll have to being Marty McFly. It's the city integration forgot.

    I was in Santa Barbara a couple of years ago and was shocked at the number of hippies and homeless wandering the streets.

  22. Mike Zwick [AKA "Dahinda"] says:

    “DuPage is a mature suburb with a vast number of stable corporate jobs, but little population growth (up only one percent from 2000 to 2010) due to zoning and high home prices.”

    DuPage County is also completely built up. There is probably one or two farms left in the entire county and they exist for novelty reasons (U pick pumpkins with hay rides). Kane, McHenry, and especially Kendall Counties have large amounts of undeveloped farmland. Kendall County was listed as the fastest growing county outside of the sunbelt for each of the last ten years or so and it lies only a few miles from the DuPage Research Corridor (the Midwest’s Silicon Valley).

  23. Some of this is obvious at least in retrospect. I was raised in the relevant timeframe from #5 above and it should have been clear to anyone paying attention that a town largely built on one corporation which then decamped and began closing up all operations would decline. Genesee County was General Motors. GM moved to Detroit (corp HQ) and then systematically shut almost everything. Recall that GM was back then the biggest industrial corporation on the planet. Only the extreme southern edge of the County fared even moderately well and that mostly by virtue of I-75 easy access to Oakland County and Detroit (1hr drive). The heart of Genesee, Flint, is another Gary, IN or Benton Harbor, MI and both of those have similar stories (ie steel and major appliances respectively). In all cases the diaspora of southern negroes who came for the manual labor jobs stayed for the generous social welfare and the productive whites followed the jobs elsewhere.

    Fairfax, VA is also obvious as the chief domicile for high paid government managers and consultants. Government is always a growth business in America it seems. The rest of the list is, I’d guess, equally as obvious when you look at its economic engine. Oakland County, MI is somewhat interesting insofar as its heart of Pontiac is much like Detroit or Flint, but the County overall has done well as the more prosperous refugees from Flint, Detroit, and Pontiac have fortified and kept a very ruthlessly pragmatic County Executive (Brooks Patterson). Despite utter collapse of US auto manufacturing and collapse of Michigan generally (furniture, pharma, lumber, appliances, etc), Oakland has only dropped from the Top 5 to Top 10 (per capita). It’s hard to imagine Oakland avoiding further decline like Genesee and Wayne (Detroit) Counties, but impressive still its held on as long as it has.

    For the future, I like Spokane. It’s probably the safest mid sized city in America and the cold winters are deterrent to diversities who will be more attracted to W WA where they’ll also find welcoming leftists. I don’t see big growth, but neither do I see big decline in store for Spokane. Plentiful water despite the high desert climate will encourage more data center construction resulting in more high value jobs. Coloradans and Texans looking to escape the californication of CO & TX will also appreciate Spokane. For more rapid growth, Miami-Dade should get a look – its already back to building high rises like gangbusters. NYC and DC are also inevitable at least until the entire system collapses under its own weight.

  24. Wow. I never expected to see Sioux County mentioned on iSteve. Growing up, I’d occasionally play Le Mars in sports. Granted Le Mars isn’t in Sioux County but it’s close. Can’t recall if it was Le Mars, but I certainly remember noticing the names on a team over the years. A lot of “van and van der something or other” on the rooster. Being a complete idiot, I assumed that they were German last names, only figuring out in high school that they were Dutch.

    Btw, that’s pretty common in that part of the country (NW Iowa, SE SD, SE MN, NE Neb.). Different towns/counties often would be settled by a different ethnic group. One town would be heavily Dutch, the next heavily Danish, the next heavily German, Swedish, Norwegian, etc. (My town didn’t really have that as much due to the presence of a university, but, even there, you’d see a lot of Rasmussens and Jensens, so we had the Danish contingent.)

    That’s probably true of many neighborhoods in most American cities. However, the difference in that part of the country is that once the area was settled and the farms occupied, the influx of new residents pretty much stopped. As a result, those areas retain their ethnic homogeneity.

  25. @dearieme
    "many will spend huge amounts of money for more desirable locations (which are summarized and euphemized with the shorthand phrase “good schools”)": the same is true in England. I tease such people by referring to their children's education as "semi-private".


    There's one trick you can use in England that isn't available in the US. There are many church schools which are funded by the state - mainly Roman Catholic and Church of England - and they are usually sufficiently conservative that your children can get a better schooling compared to that of many state schools, and it's free. Well, free in terms of money. You have to go to church and pretend to be a believer, of course, but what the hell, it's what people do at weddings and christenings anyway.

    “There are many church schools which are funded by the state – mainly Roman Catholic and Church of England – and they are usually sufficiently conservative that your children can get a better schooling compared to that of many state schools, and it’s free.”

    Yes, we use that trick in Canada. Our Catholic school board is separate from the public board but funded by the province. The Catholic board is usually a bit more conservative thus the curriculum has more wheat than chaff.

  26. OT:

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_PROFESSORS_RACIAL_TWEETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-05-12-20-39-31

    And the SJW’s are rising up to support her. Bonus Points: White BU president issues mild rebuke, gets condemned by same SJWs.

  27. MW says:
    @P
    For a superior Indian-American economist, I recommend Bhashkar Mazumder. He studies the same topics as Chetty, but he's more careful and less populist and his methods are more straightforward. Here's his paper on black-white differences in intergenerational mobility. Take a look at the Bell Curve -type analysis of upward and downward mobility in panels E and F in figure 9.

    From the Mazumder article you linked:

    As with previous studies linking AFQT scores to racial differences in adult outcomes (e.g. Neal and Johnson, 1996; Cameron and Heckman, 2001), I do not interpret these scores as measuring innate endowments but rather they reflect the accumulated differences in family background and other influences.

    Oh well. He still manages to make some important points.

    • Replies: @gregor
    Eh, that might just be a bit of C.Y.A.
    , @P
    Mazumder is careful to not state any thought crimes, but I doubt that he quite believes in the nurturist story. Elsewhere he has admitted that IQ appears to be under strong genetic control. In any case his analyses are excellent and don't depend on any nurturist theory.
  28. Steve, where do you stand on the “Dad Bod” issue???

    Sexist atrocity or body positive new fad?

    http://theodysseyonline.com/clemson/dad-bod/97484

    http://time.com/3846828/dad-bod-is-a-sexist-atrocity/

  29. I read the long article. Everything in it speaks to the decisions my parents made when we moved to the USA in the late 60’s as far as where to live and where to find the schools for their kids.

    The only discrepancy I found was your reply comment on eye contact among Arizona Native Americans: eye contact is avoided because it is considered an affront; and strangers, in particular, should be regarded with suspicion. Making eye contact freely is also considered rude and a challenge to authority.

    Thinking about “no liability” pursuing sport/activities on Indian lands: I had one of the greatest rides of my life in Monument Valley with some Navajo teenagers years ago. I knew about the eye-contact thing, but several hours into this intense ride (made the mistake of telling them I was experienced) they became very comfortable once they found that we could talk about basketball and football incessantly. It was totally weird to climb a butte, inspect some petroglyphs that are too far for “bus and rv” tourists, be in this awe-inspiring landscape, while jabbering about statistics and arcane sport factoids. There was plenty of eye contact, and we left them a nice tip. I still remember their smiling faces today.

    Maybe because I always loved the Indian horse culture (I always rooted for the Indians watching westerns) while still a little girl in Europe, I grew to be fascinated by Native Americans. The reverence for the horse resonated with me and their deep love of nature, their shamanistic beliefs.

    And, even if some tribes are more prosperous than others today, casino owners or not, their sad history and sense of futility & poverty is impossible to ignore. The loss of their lands is just a deep wound that will never heal. There are no solutions. That’s why those suicides are so tragic at Pine Ridge…alcoholism does not pay as much of a role as a sense of complete and utter futility.

    A very well known author and journalist who taught/coached sports at an Indian reservation while working on his PhD (he blew-it off) told me the whole teaching experience made his so depressed. His feeling was, “If I tell them that they must strive to do well in school/university, it inevitably means they must leave the rez…and, if more of them do, don’t return, they lose their culture and eventually, their identity.” The tribal/extended family structure seems to be incompatible with seeking a career in the “outside world,” and so few who do succeed (American Indian College Fund kids and such) come back to help their tribe or community as doctors, lawyers, entrepreneurs, civic leaders, etc. There would have been a significant difference if years ago, there had been more Native American lawyers and lobbyists representing tribal/reservation issues in DC.

    I found it interesting that representatives of a girls school at Pine Ridge, invited FLOTUS (Monday editorial) to come there to cut the ribbon of their school…show a little respect for THEIR girls education initiatives after years of neglect by the American government. I wanted to go to Wounded Knee a couple of summers ago, but a very friendly hotel manager told me it wasn’t safe for me to go there alone, even if there are hotels and restaurants there. I have always traveled like a nomad, go off the road (learned that habit from my road-trip-crazed father) to look at some historic or natural wonder, and this warning was such a bummer.

  30. I grew up one block from Cook County, and DuPage still worked its magic for me. I hate to imagine how things might have turned out had my house been in the same town but on the other side of County Line Road, where most of my friends lived. Boy, I really dodged a bullet there!!

  31. off-topic,

    Curious to see how the PC-POC reaction to MAD MAX: FURY ROAD will shape up.Miller brought on the author of the Vagina Monologues as a consultant, but she’s been under attack lately:

    But Ensler’s famous play doesn’t fully withstand third-wave feminism’s emphasis on intersectionality, a complex theory that embraces the idea that women of color and trans women shouldn’t be left out of conversations about feminist issues.

    Many modern feminists believe the Vagina Monologues promotes an outdated view of gender because it doesn’t encompass transgender and genderqueer identities. Last month, the Mount Holyoke College theatre department canceled its production of the play for this reason after sustained protest from campus feminists.

    In addition, most of the monologues are written from the perspective of middle-class straight white women, which doesn’t exactly allow the play to showcase a wide range of experience of womanhood. One online feminist journal, The Knoll, argues that “the Monologues are a successful ‘global phenomenon’ precisely because they represent a fun, easy-to-digest pseudo-feminism.”

    http://www.dailydot.com/politics/rosie-odonnell-eve-ensler-twitter/

    And the film is already under assault for not having enough non-Whites in the cast:

    Max Max: Fury Road is a spectacle set in a dystopian world. It has explosions, fast cars and bikes, 3D effects worthy of the medium, and gory deaths that were shocking, surprising, and rewarding. This movie seemingly has everything a Summer movie goer could want, except a cast that reflects and represents the demographic buying the tickets. If the target demographic of Mad Max: Fury Road is Aryan with one token Black person out of all the viewers, then Mad Max is representative of it’s audience. […..]

    However, at a certain point in the movie you might realize something is a little off about the world of Mad Max: Fury Road. For some, you notice it in the first 5 minutes, for others much later, but unless you’re blind, at some point in the film, you may find yourself shocked at the glaring omission of minorities in…the…entire…movie. Yes, there was ONE cast member that was Black, the lovely Zoë Kravitz, and to be perfectly honest, it took me 30 minutes to realize that her character was not White and that it was Zoë Kravitz, but that could just be me. Either way, she’s the only one in this film who is not Caucasian. The entire cast whether main character or extra is White. It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct” and most of the audience laughed out loud. I guess they were thinking the same thing.

    Interesting how the roughly 50% White Zoe Kravitz (bother of her “Black” parents are half-White) is insufficiently Black for some….

    http://theblackgeeks.com/does-mad-max-have-a-diversity-problem/

    Awaiting the Lumpengentsia’s final verdict…..

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    "It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct” and most of the audience laughed out loud. I guess they were thinking the same thing."

    the proper response to which was "duh! it's post-apocolypse…"
    , @Dew
    In response to that movie article, if they showed minorities as savage villains there would be complaints from the POC crowd anyways. Heroes are the real acceptable role for them.
    , @Anonymous
    So Mad Max is a utopian story, then?
  32. @Steve Sailer
    Neal Stephenson talks a lot about Northern college towns as a pretty great place to a smart kid growing up.

    It’s a good article, although I hope you address Ezra’s point about regression and siblings.

    …or somebody else figures out a biochemical solution for Native Americans’ propensity toward alcoholism.

    When I was in Mongolia–which also has a major problem with alcoholism–some of them were going across the border into Russia, where a doctor was experimenting with putting something in the body which was described as a “chip”. I’m assuming this was something like a birth control implant that was time-releasing a drug like ReVia or Campral or Antabuse. Anyhow, it seemed to work.

  33. @The Last Real Calvinist

    Neal Stephenson talks a lot about Northern college towns as a pretty great place to [be] a smart kid growing up.

     

    David Foster Wallace also grew up in a northern college town, i.e. Champaign-Urbana. But I guess the results there were mixed at best . . . .

    Also, it was good to see the Sioux County shout-out in your piece. I've known for a long time that it's not quite like most other places, but it's interesting to see you note and remark upon its status as an extreme outlier.

    David Foster Wallace also grew up in a northern college town, i.e. Champaign-Urbana

    Champ-bana- where 2001’s HAL was supposedly created- had large swaths of public housing back last time I visited. Sent a friend who lived there at the time a news story about a “polar bear hunting” incident.

  34. DPG says:

    Chetty’s problem is that he really only has one cross-sectional sample, so it’s subject to idiosyncracies.

    To be really insightful, he needs to find general characteristics of communities that will be predictive out of sample. But that will probably end up being crimethink: % white/asian, % college grads, % church goers, % two parent families, property values/property taxes relative to neighboring communities. Those would be my guesses for factors with correlation to adult income.

  35. @Boomstick
    I think I'd pick a rural town with a land grant university. Low housing costs, culture, and high performing schools because of all the professor's kids.

    That would be an excellent choice.

  36. Steve,

    You really need to write your book on affordable family formation and its implications for society and get it published (or self-publish). I really do think it would sell as well (if not better) than “Freakonomics” did. I think it would be successful and put you “on the map” with regards to these issues.

  37. @Bill P
    Doesn't surprise me that a conservative Dutch county is tops for average Americans. I recently moved to a county that has a large conservative Dutch contingent, and their town, which is right on the Canadian border, is really nice. It's also surprisingly wealthy for a rural town.

    I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn't face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it.

    Speaking of which, I can say from personal experience growing up in an integrated neighborhood that this line blacks have about white people wanting to touch their hair is pure projection. My sister is a real light blonde, like the type you only see commonly in places like Finland, and blacks were constantly pawing at her hair.

    I'll bet Chetty would be horrified if someone presented data that showed that the blonder a county, the better it is for working and middle class people, but I'll bet it's true.

    BTW, college towns ain't what they used to be. I currently live in one, and the people who run colleges these days deliberately set themselves apart from locals. There's more of a "town and gown" atmosphere than there used to be.

    Bill, would you care to comment a little more about discrimination against your blonde kids? I would have thought that in the Pacific Northwest, blonde children would be fairly common, even if their hair would turn darker after puberty.

    Unless you mean you moved there from LA or somewhere.

    • Replies: @Bill P

    Bill, would you care to comment a little more about discrimination against your blonde kids? I would have thought that in the Pacific Northwest, blonde children would be fairly common, even if their hair would turn darker after puberty.

    Unless you mean you moved there from LA or somewhere.
     
    My kids never experienced it because they only went to school in Seattle to kindergarten. It was my sister and I who had to deal with it as children. We lived in diverse south Seattle and went to a secular private school on scholarship, so we got it in two ways. First, it was the black kids in the neighborhood who were both intrigued and hostile at the same time. Then it was the wannabe-WASPs (i.e. Episcopalians of ambiguous heritage), who seemed to get some vicarious thrill out of lording it over nordic whites with less money than they had. Some of these types (especially the women) would unconsciously snarl when they saw blond kids.

    My sister, being platinum blonde, had it worse than I did. It was actually pretty hard on her, because she was teased and called "albino" and the like, and then later on relentlessly pursued by the same ugly, hairy, swarthy types who had mocked her as a child. I was merely associated with nazis, despite not being in the least bit German, or even continental at all (we're of Scandinavian and British heritage).

    Now, I just don't want my kids to have to deal with these people. My kids are better off with less material wealth if that's what it takes to avoid them.
  38. More off-topic stuff,

    Hollywood’s been pretty good at avoiding affirmative action.Interesting to see if this goes anywhere:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/13/movies/aclu-citing-bias-against-women-wants-inquiry-into-hollywoods-hiring-practices.html?_r=1

  39. Quite happy you mentioned DuPage county in Illinois in your article, Steve.

    In 2011, I moved to DuPage county from Chicago (Cook County) precisely because my daughter would go to a better public school there instead of Chicago.

    Oh, and to have a house, too. That was pretty much impossible to do both of those things on my budget within the city of Chicago.

    • Replies: @Uptown Resident
    James Howard Kunstler likens suburban upbringing to a form of child abuse. A kid remains dependent on his parents to chauffeur him from home to school to XYZ activity, and he is deprived of experiencing an activated civic life.

    There are plenty of good public schools in Chicago, especially since the economic downturn has led affluent north side whites to pull their kids from private school and collectively enroll them in now majority white public magnet schools. The Waters school district in the Lincoln Square area is excellent. Lane Tech High School is rated 6th in the state of Illinois.

    Chicago real estate is a steal compared to Coastal cities.

  40. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Steve, you’ve got Sioux County mostly right. I moved here a few years ago; I’m white but not Dutch. Dutch-Americans are as fiercely tribal a group as there is, in many subtle ways. The in-group/out-group dynamic is breaking down (the saying “if you ain’t Dutch, you ain’t much” is dead on), but very slowly. I am discriminated against in subtle ways, although I’ll deal with that given the lifestyle advantages here.

    The wealthier cities in Sioux County are straight out of 1960. No one locks doors. People leave their cars running when they go into stores. At the local colleges, professors leave their doors unlocked and open when they aren’t there. Kids run up and down streets and all over the neighborhoods; parents encourage this. Whenever a plumber or electrician comes to work on my house, he just walks in the door and starts working.

    However, Sioux County is not 97% white, unless you’re counting Hispanics as white. It’s probably around 65% white, 30% Hispanic. The Hispanic population is growing, thanks to abundant jobs here (we have a 3% unemployment rate, and employers here are desperate for skilled workers). At the local schools, the lower grades are majority Hispanic.

    Also note that there was a farm crisis here in the 1980s. Land was dirt cheap; many farmers went bust. Now, as you say, we’re at $15-$20k an acre. In other words, a young farmer 30 years ago would be barely scrapping by. Now he’s a millionaire many times over (the retirees build McMansions far from the Hispanic neighborhoods). Perhaps this skews Chetty’s data, as in your Myrtle Beach example.

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Are you sure that the bias stems from you not being "Dutch"? I'd suspect that it's more of local vs. newcomer issue. In most towns, you're never really fully accepted if you move there as adult. Your kids will be accepted because they've grown up with the local kids but not you.

    Granted, I grew up in a university town nearby, so the "townie" influence wasn't as large for adults moving in, though for me, it was because half the high school was kids of "townies." However, to me, they were just kids that I knew, and, to a degree, I was one of them. But I could see how it would take my parents a very long time to be accepted by people who had grown up in the area. Then again, people who moved to town to work for the university tended to hang out with - yep, you guessed it - people who worked for the university.
  41. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @syonredux
    off-topic,

    Curious to see how the PC-POC reaction to MAD MAX: FURY ROAD will shape up.Miller brought on the author of the Vagina Monologues as a consultant, but she's been under attack lately:

    But Ensler's famous play doesn't fully withstand third-wave feminism's emphasis on intersectionality, a complex theory that embraces the idea that women of color and trans women shouldn't be left out of conversations about feminist issues.

    Many modern feminists believe the Vagina Monologues promotes an outdated view of gender because it doesn't encompass transgender and genderqueer identities. Last month, the Mount Holyoke College theatre department canceled its production of the play for this reason after sustained protest from campus feminists.

    In addition, most of the monologues are written from the perspective of middle-class straight white women, which doesn't exactly allow the play to showcase a wide range of experience of womanhood. One online feminist journal, The Knoll, argues that "the Monologues are a successful ‘global phenomenon’ precisely because they represent a fun, easy-to-digest pseudo-feminism."
     
    http://www.dailydot.com/politics/rosie-odonnell-eve-ensler-twitter/


    And the film is already under assault for not having enough non-Whites in the cast:

    Max Max: Fury Road is a spectacle set in a dystopian world. It has explosions, fast cars and bikes, 3D effects worthy of the medium, and gory deaths that were shocking, surprising, and rewarding. This movie seemingly has everything a Summer movie goer could want, except a cast that reflects and represents the demographic buying the tickets. If the target demographic of Mad Max: Fury Road is Aryan with one token Black person out of all the viewers, then Mad Max is representative of it’s audience. [.....]

    However, at a certain point in the movie you might realize something is a little off about the world of Mad Max: Fury Road. For some, you notice it in the first 5 minutes, for others much later, but unless you’re blind, at some point in the film, you may find yourself shocked at the glaring omission of minorities in…the…entire…movie. Yes, there was ONE cast member that was Black, the lovely Zoë Kravitz, and to be perfectly honest, it took me 30 minutes to realize that her character was not White and that it was Zoë Kravitz, but that could just be me. Either way, she’s the only one in this film who is not Caucasian. The entire cast whether main character or extra is White. It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct” and most of the audience laughed out loud. I guess they were thinking the same thing.

     

    Interesting how the roughly 50% White Zoe Kravitz (bother of her "Black" parents are half-White) is insufficiently Black for some....

    http://theblackgeeks.com/does-mad-max-have-a-diversity-problem/


    Awaiting the Lumpengentsia's final verdict.....

    “It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct” and most of the audience laughed out loud. I guess they were thinking the same thing.”

    the proper response to which was “duh! it’s post-apocolypse…”

    • Replies: @fredyetagain aka superhonky
    "“It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct”"

    Why do blacks like this guy feel entitled to provide audible commentary in movie theaters? He has every right to go home and scribble in his little blog, but while in the theater he needs to keep his opinions sotto voce.
  42. @Anonymous
    LOL

    https://disqus.com/by/stevesailor/

    Steve sure has aged a bit. Being on the dark side really ages a man.

  43. I’ve said it several times here, but again: Hollywood’s avoidance of quotas and such is largely structural. A movie production company is basically a temporary business. You start a company, hire people, make a film, and then the company goes out of business, all before the sharks and the parasites can begin circling. Very few of the people employed in the movie business are employed by a persistent structure, basically just the producers and their staff. My guess is a typical producer’s office is the producer and his idea people, and a few PAs working for peanuts hoping to get work on a movie or become one of the idea people. These guys will just add no-show jobs to their office payrolls if they’re forced to, the end.

  44. t says:

    OT: Far leftist Freddie de Boer says this about current progressive discourse:

    What all of this descended into, as was inevitable, was a White Off. A White Off is a peculiar 21st-century phenomenon where white progressives try to prove that the other white progressives they’re arguing with are The Real Whites. It’s a contest in shamelessness: who can be more brazen in reducing race to a pure argumentative cudgel? Who feels less guilt about using the fight against racism as a way to elevate oneself in a social hierarchy? Which white person will be the first to pull out “white” as a pejorative in a way that demonstrates the toothlessness of the concept? Within progressivism today, there is an absolute lack of shame or self-criticism about reducing racial discourse to a matter of straightforward personal branding and social signaling. It turns my stomach.

    http://fredrikdeboer.com/2015/05/13/maybe-time-for-change/

    • Replies: @anon
    It's starts off with SJWs competing with each other over who is least racist but once they reach the point of not being racist how do they compete? They compete over who can be the most anti-white.
    , @SPMoore8
    If we must be OT, then we must be making up nursery rhymes about Saida Grundy:

    Saida Grundy,
    born on a Monday,
    hired on a Tuesday,
    tweeted on a Wednesday,
    critiqued on a Thursday,
    sorry on a Friday,
    fired on a Saturday,
    buried on a Sunday,
    and that's all there is
    to Saida Grundy.

    However, what's most likely to happen is that she will immediately be appointed to tenure and will soon vie with Melissa Joan Harry Potter Harris Perry for the post of "America's most foremost public intellectual."

    Read it and LOL:

    http://socawlege.com/boston-university-assistant-professor-saida-grundy-attacks-whites-makes-false-statements-on-twitter/
  45. @The Last Real Calvinist

    Neal Stephenson talks a lot about Northern college towns as a pretty great place to [be] a smart kid growing up.

     

    David Foster Wallace also grew up in a northern college town, i.e. Champaign-Urbana. But I guess the results there were mixed at best . . . .

    Also, it was good to see the Sioux County shout-out in your piece. I've known for a long time that it's not quite like most other places, but it's interesting to see you note and remark upon its status as an extreme outlier.

    DFW’s suicide was the result of a mental illness and mismanaged SSRIs, not of living in central Illinois. I’ve heard wonderful things about DFW’s father, a professor of philosophy at UIC renowned for his brilliant lecturing style and personal kindness.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    He was living in California when he killed himself, IIRC.
  46. @emptyfree
    Quite happy you mentioned DuPage county in Illinois in your article, Steve.

    In 2011, I moved to DuPage county from Chicago (Cook County) precisely because my daughter would go to a better public school there instead of Chicago.

    Oh, and to have a house, too. That was pretty much impossible to do both of those things on my budget within the city of Chicago.

    James Howard Kunstler likens suburban upbringing to a form of child abuse. A kid remains dependent on his parents to chauffeur him from home to school to XYZ activity, and he is deprived of experiencing an activated civic life.

    There are plenty of good public schools in Chicago, especially since the economic downturn has led affluent north side whites to pull their kids from private school and collectively enroll them in now majority white public magnet schools. The Waters school district in the Lincoln Square area is excellent. Lane Tech High School is rated 6th in the state of Illinois.

    Chicago real estate is a steal compared to Coastal cities.

    • Replies: @MC
    "James Howard Kunstler likens suburban upbringing to a form of child abuse."

    Kunstler is an interesting guy, but...he doesn't have kids, does he?
    , @MUSE

    There are plenty of good public schools in Chicago, especially since the economic downturn has led affluent north side whites to pull their kids from private school and collectively enroll them in now majority white public magnet schools. The Waters school district in the Lincoln Square area is excellent. Lane Tech High School is rated 6th in the state of Illinois.
     
    The selective enrollment elementary schools in Chicago Public Schools are OK, but I do not believe they are great. Having moved from the city to a north shore suburb, my kid went from a gifted magnet elementary that had test scores in the top five state wide with mostly A's, yet required math tutoring for a year to catch up with the suburban kids in accelerated math.

    Additionally, the extracurricular opportunities do not come close to what is available in high quality suburban schools such as orchestra, band, art, music education and drama, as well as athletics. This is of course about the money, maybe culture as well. Chicago Public Schools spend a huge sum providing free breakfast and lunch, and lord knows where the rest of the money goes, but given that the current superintendent is on leave during an investigation of no-bid contracts, one can guess.

    Don't get me wrong, if you live in the city, selective enrollment programs are head and shoulders above most neighborhood schools (with a few exceptions); compared to Latin, Lab and the British School - not so much. Some of the selective enrollment High schools are quite good, but this is primarily because of the extreme selectivity of admissions. The reality though is that the vast majority of kids can't get in, so where does that leave parents. Well off whites can afford to try their luck in the city because ultimately, they can afford private or east coast prep if junior can't get into Northside or Payton. (And yes, Lane is good and improving, but not quite Payton yet).
  47. Steve,

    I just belatedly realized that I spent the summer of 2004 in the very Boone County, WV you were discussing last week. The church where I was working (in Comfort, WV) was originally a Presbyterian mission school that was widely attended by the local children in the 30s and 40s, judging by the pictures at the church and the memories of the current members who still revered the school’s director. I got the sense that many of the attendees of that school ended up as teachers, principals, coaches, etc. themselves and the ones I knew were good ones.

    In retrospect, it reminds me of the Pi Beta Phi settlement school founded in 1912 in Gatlinburg, TN that many locals credit as the spark that got that area going as its own engine of social mobility.

  48. @Numinous
    If machines and automation are really going to take over the world, all kids ought to have basic programming skills at least. There are easy programming jobs (basically, writing configuration files) and hard programming jobs (writing operating systems, like Torvalds does). It's like the difference between car mechanics and design engineers. Semi-skilled vs skilled.

    That is so 1990.

    The fact is corporations are rapidly off-shoring technical work to India or importing foreigners here to the U.S. to take engineering and coding jobs. This applies to the medical and science fields as well. In short STEM is slowly being closed off to native born Americans.

    BTW it’s being ongoing since the 1990’s but few pay attention to this, because it brings up the ugly fact the business community is waging war on us.

    Instead Look for professions that can’t be off-shored like plumbing, HVAC or a electrician. And it doesn’t mean you can’t learn coding and engineering as a hobby.

  49. @Anonymous
    "It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct” and most of the audience laughed out loud. I guess they were thinking the same thing."

    the proper response to which was "duh! it's post-apocolypse…"

    ““It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct””

    Why do blacks like this guy feel entitled to provide audible commentary in movie theaters? He has every right to go home and scribble in his little blog, but while in the theater he needs to keep his opinions sotto voce.

  50. Thing is, if you extrapolate from 50 years ago rather than from now and then imagine asking the question again in 50 years time then the clear answer is nowhere.

    There will be nowhere for your grand-children in 50 years time.

  51. @t
    OT: Far leftist Freddie de Boer says this about current progressive discourse:

    What all of this descended into, as was inevitable, was a White Off. A White Off is a peculiar 21st-century phenomenon where white progressives try to prove that the other white progressives they’re arguing with are The Real Whites. It’s a contest in shamelessness: who can be more brazen in reducing race to a pure argumentative cudgel? Who feels less guilt about using the fight against racism as a way to elevate oneself in a social hierarchy? Which white person will be the first to pull out “white” as a pejorative in a way that demonstrates the toothlessness of the concept? Within progressivism today, there is an absolute lack of shame or self-criticism about reducing racial discourse to a matter of straightforward personal branding and social signaling. It turns my stomach.

    http://fredrikdeboer.com/2015/05/13/maybe-time-for-change/

    It’s starts off with SJWs competing with each other over who is least racist but once they reach the point of not being racist how do they compete? They compete over who can be the most anti-white.

  52. @Anonymous
    Bill, would you care to comment a little more about discrimination against your blonde kids? I would have thought that in the Pacific Northwest, blonde children would be fairly common, even if their hair would turn darker after puberty.

    Unless you mean you moved there from LA or somewhere.

    Bill, would you care to comment a little more about discrimination against your blonde kids? I would have thought that in the Pacific Northwest, blonde children would be fairly common, even if their hair would turn darker after puberty.

    Unless you mean you moved there from LA or somewhere.

    My kids never experienced it because they only went to school in Seattle to kindergarten. It was my sister and I who had to deal with it as children. We lived in diverse south Seattle and went to a secular private school on scholarship, so we got it in two ways. First, it was the black kids in the neighborhood who were both intrigued and hostile at the same time. Then it was the wannabe-WASPs (i.e. Episcopalians of ambiguous heritage), who seemed to get some vicarious thrill out of lording it over nordic whites with less money than they had. Some of these types (especially the women) would unconsciously snarl when they saw blond kids.

    My sister, being platinum blonde, had it worse than I did. It was actually pretty hard on her, because she was teased and called “albino” and the like, and then later on relentlessly pursued by the same ugly, hairy, swarthy types who had mocked her as a child. I was merely associated with nazis, despite not being in the least bit German, or even continental at all (we’re of Scandinavian and British heritage).

    Now, I just don’t want my kids to have to deal with these people. My kids are better off with less material wealth if that’s what it takes to avoid them.

  53. @t
    OT: Far leftist Freddie de Boer says this about current progressive discourse:

    What all of this descended into, as was inevitable, was a White Off. A White Off is a peculiar 21st-century phenomenon where white progressives try to prove that the other white progressives they’re arguing with are The Real Whites. It’s a contest in shamelessness: who can be more brazen in reducing race to a pure argumentative cudgel? Who feels less guilt about using the fight against racism as a way to elevate oneself in a social hierarchy? Which white person will be the first to pull out “white” as a pejorative in a way that demonstrates the toothlessness of the concept? Within progressivism today, there is an absolute lack of shame or self-criticism about reducing racial discourse to a matter of straightforward personal branding and social signaling. It turns my stomach.

    http://fredrikdeboer.com/2015/05/13/maybe-time-for-change/

    If we must be OT, then we must be making up nursery rhymes about Saida Grundy:

    Saida Grundy,
    born on a Monday,
    hired on a Tuesday,
    tweeted on a Wednesday,
    critiqued on a Thursday,
    sorry on a Friday,
    fired on a Saturday,
    buried on a Sunday,
    and that’s all there is
    to Saida Grundy.

    However, what’s most likely to happen is that she will immediately be appointed to tenure and will soon vie with Melissa Joan Harry Potter Harris Perry for the post of “America’s most foremost public intellectual.”

    Read it and LOL:

    http://socawlege.com/boston-university-assistant-professor-saida-grundy-attacks-whites-makes-false-statements-on-twitter/

  54. @Whiskey
    Isn't Simi Valley receiving lots of Blacks fleeing rapidly Latinoizing South Central?

    So far, no. I’ve seen maybe 5 blacks in Simi in the past year I’ve lived here.

  55. Hal says:
    @anon
    OT:

    Linus Torvalds has a very different teaching philosophy to Bill Gates:

    "not every child should be taught to program...only people with the capacity to understand should learn."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KfJiWR1FPw

    Compare that to the "be like me" bill gates approach:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKIu9yen5nc

    Spot on, Hombre.

    Linus Torvalds has a very different teaching philosophy to (sic) Bill Gates:
    “not every child should be taught to program…only people with the capacity to understand should learn.”

    Teaching every kid to think to the best of their ability would be considered raw racism, but only to those who hold dear the delusion that there is no difference.

    Teaching every kid to think to the best of their ability means testing for the ability to abstract before allowing into algebra, testing for the ability to synthesize before allowing into geometry, and testing for mastery of algebra and geometry before allowing into higher math.

    Those who can’t pass the math course entrance exam get to spend time learning how to add, subtract, divide and multiply without a calculator. Those who refuse to master arithmetic are sent to the fields for meaningful re-education in hoeing, digging and hauling.

    Obviously, with the displacement of all those talented runners and jumpers away from boring colleges and into the agricultural training sector, we would need to develop an amateur sports network to rival the NCAA. Call it the NFNAA. (National Field Help Athletic Association)

  56. My family moved to Orange County, California in the early 1970’s. My parents looked at two towns- an upper-middle class to middle-middle class one, mostly white with a few Asians, and a lower-middle class to working class one, mostly white with some Mexicans and a few Asians.

    But Dad derided the first as a “white ghetto”. So the second it was, and it was pretty awful. The high school graduate whites of the place were largely pretty mean and stupid, and it was very rough for us. It may well have ruined my brother and sister.

    You want to avoid NAMs, but avoiding lower-class whites is very important as well. They are only just a little better in behavior than Mexicans. In the old days school and church kept them in line, but once those restrictions were lifted- as they just had been in California in the early 70’s- they are really nasty.

  57. @Paul
    I don't think you're right about Palos Verdes. The mexicans legal and illegal, that impregnate San Pedro, as well as the ex convicts that are dumped off there from LA county can leak into Palos Verdes to add some flavor flav.

    Some mexicans dumped a dead body up there not long ago. They also converge on free public resources such as the basketball courts, and parks, they even fall off the cliffs over there occasionally.

    It's turned a little cheesy. Palos Verdes isn't what it used to be. You move there, you make some social concessions to the riff raff. Like locking your doors, day or night. You can't fully relax there. If you're looking for that, try up the coast, like Santa Barbara. That city is like entering a time warp. It's the closest experience you'll have to being Marty McFly. It's the city integration forgot.

    There are almost no blacks in santa barbara but there is an active anti-gang unit keeping the mexican gangs in check.

  58. @Paul
    I don't think you're right about Palos Verdes. The mexicans legal and illegal, that impregnate San Pedro, as well as the ex convicts that are dumped off there from LA county can leak into Palos Verdes to add some flavor flav.

    Some mexicans dumped a dead body up there not long ago. They also converge on free public resources such as the basketball courts, and parks, they even fall off the cliffs over there occasionally.

    It's turned a little cheesy. Palos Verdes isn't what it used to be. You move there, you make some social concessions to the riff raff. Like locking your doors, day or night. You can't fully relax there. If you're looking for that, try up the coast, like Santa Barbara. That city is like entering a time warp. It's the closest experience you'll have to being Marty McFly. It's the city integration forgot.

    ” If you’re looking for that, try up the coast, like Santa Barbara. That city is like entering a time warp. It’s the closest experience you’ll have to being Marty McFly. It’s the city integration forgot.”

    Dennis Miller lives in Santa Barbara.

  59. @Whiskey
    Isn't Simi Valley receiving lots of Blacks fleeing rapidly Latinoizing South Central?

    “Isn’t Simi Valley receiving lots of Blacks fleeing rapidly Latinoizing South Central?”

    Why would Blacks want to move to Simi Valley when most White voters in that city vote Republican and it is home to the Ronald Reagan library. Those are the wrong types of White people for Blacks to live in close proximity to. Blacks do best when they live in close proximity to White Atheists who hate Christianity and White butch dykes who like to get manly looking haircuts to look like Janet Reno and Anne Hathaway in “Interstellar”.

  60. @Bill P
    Doesn't surprise me that a conservative Dutch county is tops for average Americans. I recently moved to a county that has a large conservative Dutch contingent, and their town, which is right on the Canadian border, is really nice. It's also surprisingly wealthy for a rural town.

    I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn't face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it.

    Speaking of which, I can say from personal experience growing up in an integrated neighborhood that this line blacks have about white people wanting to touch their hair is pure projection. My sister is a real light blonde, like the type you only see commonly in places like Finland, and blacks were constantly pawing at her hair.

    I'll bet Chetty would be horrified if someone presented data that showed that the blonder a county, the better it is for working and middle class people, but I'll bet it's true.

    BTW, college towns ain't what they used to be. I currently live in one, and the people who run colleges these days deliberately set themselves apart from locals. There's more of a "town and gown" atmosphere than there used to be.

    “I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn’t face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it.”

    Would you say in big cities that blond kids get bullied just as equally as ginger haired kids, obese kids, and nerdy geek kids?

    • Replies: @Dew
    Actually in the case of ginger haired kids, it is mostly the boys that are bullied. Red hair is considered attractive on girls these days but on boys not so much. Not so sure about blonde boys but on girls that trait is still attractive as always so I don't think they are bullied that much for their hair color, at least by other whites.

    Of course, the bullying will most likely increase if they live in area with blacks who have virtually no variety in hair color.
    , @Danindc
    Ginger hair kids are bullied excessively. Very disturbing. Matt Parker and Trey Stone have caused them a lot of pain. Blond kids - not nearly as much.
    , @Bill P

    Would you say in big cities that blond kids get bullied just as equally as ginger haired kids, obese kids, and nerdy geek kids?
     
    Depends on whether you're talking about girls or boys. The amount of aggressive sexual attention blonde teenage girls deal with in urban environments is beyond what most people could imagine. Blond boys, if not otherwise afflicted, basically get a certain amount of ethnic hostility directed their way and little more serious than that (although that can be serious if you run into ethnically hostile teachers, who do exist in substantial numbers), but it isn't like what their sisters have to put up with.

    If you were from a relatively humble Christian family and had a blonde daughter, would you want her to attend an urban public school? Your best bet would be a Catholic school, but even that is out of reach for middle-income parents these days as urban housing costs skyrocket.

    It's best to flee the city and all the costs one has to pay to insulate oneself from its distasteful elements. Why not go somewhere where your kids are like most of the other kids?
  61. @Boomstick
    I think I'd pick a rural town with a land grant university. Low housing costs, culture, and high performing schools because of all the professor's kids.

    I think I’d pick a rural town with a land grant university. Low housing costs, culture, and high performing schools because of all the professor’s kids.

    Yes. Not exactly rural, but I went to grad school at the University of FL, then landed a decent well-paying job there a few years later. I had a great couple of years, but eventually grabbed another job opportunity a couple hundred miles away. I’ve been trying to get back for the past ten years. A lot of employment opportunities associated with the university (45K students) and large medical facilities, including a VA. For me, the social activities were plentiful, inexpensive, and a lot of fun. The real estate is relatively low cost, but the public schools are average at best. Oh, and the city of Gainesville is 23% black so, well, you know.

  62. Education.

    Middlesex and Norfolk counties in Massachusetts have been great places to live for decades, and will be for many more. Those 80-something colleges around Boston are the reason.

  63. Avoid California. Drought, fires, low water pressure, mud with sliding potential, illegals…Wildfires.
    Go north, follow the North Star.

  64. @syonredux
    off-topic,

    Curious to see how the PC-POC reaction to MAD MAX: FURY ROAD will shape up.Miller brought on the author of the Vagina Monologues as a consultant, but she's been under attack lately:

    But Ensler's famous play doesn't fully withstand third-wave feminism's emphasis on intersectionality, a complex theory that embraces the idea that women of color and trans women shouldn't be left out of conversations about feminist issues.

    Many modern feminists believe the Vagina Monologues promotes an outdated view of gender because it doesn't encompass transgender and genderqueer identities. Last month, the Mount Holyoke College theatre department canceled its production of the play for this reason after sustained protest from campus feminists.

    In addition, most of the monologues are written from the perspective of middle-class straight white women, which doesn't exactly allow the play to showcase a wide range of experience of womanhood. One online feminist journal, The Knoll, argues that "the Monologues are a successful ‘global phenomenon’ precisely because they represent a fun, easy-to-digest pseudo-feminism."
     
    http://www.dailydot.com/politics/rosie-odonnell-eve-ensler-twitter/


    And the film is already under assault for not having enough non-Whites in the cast:

    Max Max: Fury Road is a spectacle set in a dystopian world. It has explosions, fast cars and bikes, 3D effects worthy of the medium, and gory deaths that were shocking, surprising, and rewarding. This movie seemingly has everything a Summer movie goer could want, except a cast that reflects and represents the demographic buying the tickets. If the target demographic of Mad Max: Fury Road is Aryan with one token Black person out of all the viewers, then Mad Max is representative of it’s audience. [.....]

    However, at a certain point in the movie you might realize something is a little off about the world of Mad Max: Fury Road. For some, you notice it in the first 5 minutes, for others much later, but unless you’re blind, at some point in the film, you may find yourself shocked at the glaring omission of minorities in…the…entire…movie. Yes, there was ONE cast member that was Black, the lovely Zoë Kravitz, and to be perfectly honest, it took me 30 minutes to realize that her character was not White and that it was Zoë Kravitz, but that could just be me. Either way, she’s the only one in this film who is not Caucasian. The entire cast whether main character or extra is White. It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct” and most of the audience laughed out loud. I guess they were thinking the same thing.

     

    Interesting how the roughly 50% White Zoe Kravitz (bother of her "Black" parents are half-White) is insufficiently Black for some....

    http://theblackgeeks.com/does-mad-max-have-a-diversity-problem/


    Awaiting the Lumpengentsia's final verdict.....

    In response to that movie article, if they showed minorities as savage villains there would be complaints from the POC crowd anyways. Heroes are the real acceptable role for them.

  65. Dew says:
    @Jefferson
    "I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn’t face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it."

    Would you say in big cities that blond kids get bullied just as equally as ginger haired kids, obese kids, and nerdy geek kids?

    Actually in the case of ginger haired kids, it is mostly the boys that are bullied. Red hair is considered attractive on girls these days but on boys not so much. Not so sure about blonde boys but on girls that trait is still attractive as always so I don’t think they are bullied that much for their hair color, at least by other whites.

    Of course, the bullying will most likely increase if they live in area with blacks who have virtually no variety in hair color.

  66. @Anonymous
    Steve, you've got Sioux County mostly right. I moved here a few years ago; I'm white but not Dutch. Dutch-Americans are as fiercely tribal a group as there is, in many subtle ways. The in-group/out-group dynamic is breaking down (the saying "if you ain't Dutch, you ain't much" is dead on), but very slowly. I am discriminated against in subtle ways, although I'll deal with that given the lifestyle advantages here.

    The wealthier cities in Sioux County are straight out of 1960. No one locks doors. People leave their cars running when they go into stores. At the local colleges, professors leave their doors unlocked and open when they aren't there. Kids run up and down streets and all over the neighborhoods; parents encourage this. Whenever a plumber or electrician comes to work on my house, he just walks in the door and starts working.

    However, Sioux County is not 97% white, unless you're counting Hispanics as white. It's probably around 65% white, 30% Hispanic. The Hispanic population is growing, thanks to abundant jobs here (we have a 3% unemployment rate, and employers here are desperate for skilled workers). At the local schools, the lower grades are majority Hispanic.

    Also note that there was a farm crisis here in the 1980s. Land was dirt cheap; many farmers went bust. Now, as you say, we're at $15-$20k an acre. In other words, a young farmer 30 years ago would be barely scrapping by. Now he's a millionaire many times over (the retirees build McMansions far from the Hispanic neighborhoods). Perhaps this skews Chetty's data, as in your Myrtle Beach example.

    Are you sure that the bias stems from you not being “Dutch”? I’d suspect that it’s more of local vs. newcomer issue. In most towns, you’re never really fully accepted if you move there as adult. Your kids will be accepted because they’ve grown up with the local kids but not you.

    Granted, I grew up in a university town nearby, so the “townie” influence wasn’t as large for adults moving in, though for me, it was because half the high school was kids of “townies.” However, to me, they were just kids that I knew, and, to a degree, I was one of them. But I could see how it would take my parents a very long time to be accepted by people who had grown up in the area. Then again, people who moved to town to work for the university tended to hang out with – yep, you guessed it – people who worked for the university.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Are you sure that the bias stems from you not being “Dutch”? I’d suspect that it’s more of local vs. newcomer issue.

     

    Much as it pains me to say this, Sioux County Citizen might be on to something real. I'm as Dutch as King Willem-Alexander, and grew up in Sioux County, so it seems a perfectly friendly place to me. But I certainly heard from non-Dutch friends I grew up with (many of whom had lived in Sioux County for many years) that they (and they parents) felt subtly left out in some ways. I think foremost was the fact that if you're of Dutch extraction in American-Dutch enclaves, you're very likely a member of a church that's part of either the Reformed Church of America, or the Christian Reformed Church (i.e. the two traditionally-Dutch protestant denominations in the USA; the rivalry between people who belong to these churches is a whole other post). Church activities play a prominent role in day-to-day Sioux County life, so if you're a Roman Catholic, or even a Lutheran, or (God forbid) unchurched, you're left out of a very active network. Now, I do think things have loosened up somewhat in recent years, but I don't doubt there's still some of this going on.

    BTW, in response to your other post above, it's great that you came as close to Sioux County as Le Mars, but rest assured that it's not the same thing. Le Mars was always considered a bit déclassé from the SC point of view, at least when I lived there . . . .

    And w/r/t the demographics that SCC mentioned, I agree that there's no way Sioux County is still 97% white; there are a lot of Hispanics around. But there's also no way their numbers are close to 35% of the population. Hispanic kids might comprise 35% of the public school kids in some places, but I looked up a couple of census sites, and they put Sioux County's Hispanic population in the 9% range, which seems about right. No question, though, that even this is a huge change -- when I was growing up there in the 70s and 80s the population would surely have been 97% white, or maybe even higher.

  67. @Uptown Resident
    James Howard Kunstler likens suburban upbringing to a form of child abuse. A kid remains dependent on his parents to chauffeur him from home to school to XYZ activity, and he is deprived of experiencing an activated civic life.

    There are plenty of good public schools in Chicago, especially since the economic downturn has led affluent north side whites to pull their kids from private school and collectively enroll them in now majority white public magnet schools. The Waters school district in the Lincoln Square area is excellent. Lane Tech High School is rated 6th in the state of Illinois.

    Chicago real estate is a steal compared to Coastal cities.

    “James Howard Kunstler likens suburban upbringing to a form of child abuse.”

    Kunstler is an interesting guy, but…he doesn’t have kids, does he?

    • Replies: @carol
    Kunstler may not have kids but it sounds like he's speaking from his own childhood experience. I felt the same way - growing up stuck in the shitty suburb of lower Temple City, El Monte-adjacent. As we were too moderne to go to church, my sole social outlet was school, period.

    It's no wonder that as soon as I was mobile, I was wandering the streets of downtown Pasadena, Hollywood, hell even ratty downtown LA, just for the thrill of it all. I loved cities. I loved the cafes, the bookstores, the pawn shops, the news kiosks, I liked kibitzing with total strangers.

    Fortunately I wandered in the daytime only and things were still rather safe back in the 60s anyway.

  68. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Are you sure that the bias stems from you not being "Dutch"? I'd suspect that it's more of local vs. newcomer issue. In most towns, you're never really fully accepted if you move there as adult. Your kids will be accepted because they've grown up with the local kids but not you.

    Granted, I grew up in a university town nearby, so the "townie" influence wasn't as large for adults moving in, though for me, it was because half the high school was kids of "townies." However, to me, they were just kids that I knew, and, to a degree, I was one of them. But I could see how it would take my parents a very long time to be accepted by people who had grown up in the area. Then again, people who moved to town to work for the university tended to hang out with - yep, you guessed it - people who worked for the university.

    Are you sure that the bias stems from you not being “Dutch”? I’d suspect that it’s more of local vs. newcomer issue.

    Much as it pains me to say this, Sioux County Citizen might be on to something real. I’m as Dutch as King Willem-Alexander, and grew up in Sioux County, so it seems a perfectly friendly place to me. But I certainly heard from non-Dutch friends I grew up with (many of whom had lived in Sioux County for many years) that they (and they parents) felt subtly left out in some ways. I think foremost was the fact that if you’re of Dutch extraction in American-Dutch enclaves, you’re very likely a member of a church that’s part of either the Reformed Church of America, or the Christian Reformed Church (i.e. the two traditionally-Dutch protestant denominations in the USA; the rivalry between people who belong to these churches is a whole other post). Church activities play a prominent role in day-to-day Sioux County life, so if you’re a Roman Catholic, or even a Lutheran, or (God forbid) unchurched, you’re left out of a very active network. Now, I do think things have loosened up somewhat in recent years, but I don’t doubt there’s still some of this going on.

    BTW, in response to your other post above, it’s great that you came as close to Sioux County as Le Mars, but rest assured that it’s not the same thing. Le Mars was always considered a bit déclassé from the SC point of view, at least when I lived there . . . .

    And w/r/t the demographics that SCC mentioned, I agree that there’s no way Sioux County is still 97% white; there are a lot of Hispanics around. But there’s also no way their numbers are close to 35% of the population. Hispanic kids might comprise 35% of the public school kids in some places, but I looked up a couple of census sites, and they put Sioux County’s Hispanic population in the 9% range, which seems about right. No question, though, that even this is a huge change — when I was growing up there in the 70s and 80s the population would surely have been 97% white, or maybe even higher.

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Thanks. Didn't realize that Le Mars was the Oakland to Sioux County's San Francisco. I only popped in a couple of times to play baseball.

    I'm surprised to hear that the area now has Hispanics. Growing up in the 80s, I don't remember any Hispanics - I mean, zero. There were a fair number of Indians but no Hispanics. My area was family farms and the university so not much need for cheap foreign labor. The farms grew corn and soybean, so they were highly mechanized. The families plus some occasional help from high school kids handled the labor needs. The university and businesses in town always had plenty of students - high school and college - willing to work for minimum wage.

    Now, Sioux City had Hispanics to work at the meat processing plants. (I can still remember that smell driving down I29.) Minnesota had them as well for sugar beets and other types of farms. The tide rolls in everywhere, I suppose.
  69. @MC
    "James Howard Kunstler likens suburban upbringing to a form of child abuse."

    Kunstler is an interesting guy, but...he doesn't have kids, does he?

    Kunstler may not have kids but it sounds like he’s speaking from his own childhood experience. I felt the same way – growing up stuck in the shitty suburb of lower Temple City, El Monte-adjacent. As we were too moderne to go to church, my sole social outlet was school, period.

    It’s no wonder that as soon as I was mobile, I was wandering the streets of downtown Pasadena, Hollywood, hell even ratty downtown LA, just for the thrill of it all. I loved cities. I loved the cafes, the bookstores, the pawn shops, the news kiosks, I liked kibitzing with total strangers.

    Fortunately I wandered in the daytime only and things were still rather safe back in the 60s anyway.

  70. Honestly, parents should probably just follow the new Chinese immigrant parents. They`re really good at avoiding the wrong kind of neighbourhoods. Think of it as outsourcing.

  71. Ezra says:

    An iSteve-ish topic to explore in regards to this dataset would be how much of the impact of moving to different neighborhoods runs through the channel of Affordable Family Formation. If a family is moving to a country with cheap enough housing so that Mom can afford to stay home, then maybe she can invest more time in the younger sibling and get better outcomes. If a yuppie family moves to Manhattan so Mommy has to work to cover the rent, then maybe the younger sib gets not enough attention.

    Probably the county level nature of the dataset makes it hard to examine the effect of immigration on different areas of California, since California counties are the size of Delaware.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right, Chetty has the detail in his database to look at the zip code level within counties, which is in many ways more interesting. His latest analysis looks at people who moved at least 100 miles, but that seems kind of backwards. People move across the country for job or family reasons that are often pretty idiosyncratic. But what people talk about all the time is moving to a different part of what Chetty calls your "Commuting Zone." You can constantly find people around you to talk to about moving somewhere else nearby, but you probably won't run into anybody from Sioux County, Iowa who can give you an informed opinion on the place.

    I'd be fascinated by an intergenerational analysis of just people who moved within the five counties of Southern California. That's over 5% of the population of the whole country right there. Heck Los Angeles County alone is 10 million people.
  72. @MW
    From the Mazumder article you linked:

    As with previous studies linking AFQT scores to racial differences in adult outcomes (e.g. Neal and Johnson, 1996; Cameron and Heckman, 2001), I do not interpret these scores as measuring innate endowments but rather they reflect the accumulated differences in family background and other influences.
     
    Oh well. He still manages to make some important points.

    Eh, that might just be a bit of C.Y.A.

  73. @Jefferson
    "I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn’t face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it."

    Would you say in big cities that blond kids get bullied just as equally as ginger haired kids, obese kids, and nerdy geek kids?

    Ginger hair kids are bullied excessively. Very disturbing. Matt Parker and Trey Stone have caused them a lot of pain. Blond kids – not nearly as much.

  74. @Jefferson
    "I moved to this county for my kids, in part so they wouldn’t face racial discrimination for being blond. Lots of people in big cities treat blond kids like crap, and feel righteous about it."

    Would you say in big cities that blond kids get bullied just as equally as ginger haired kids, obese kids, and nerdy geek kids?

    Would you say in big cities that blond kids get bullied just as equally as ginger haired kids, obese kids, and nerdy geek kids?

    Depends on whether you’re talking about girls or boys. The amount of aggressive sexual attention blonde teenage girls deal with in urban environments is beyond what most people could imagine. Blond boys, if not otherwise afflicted, basically get a certain amount of ethnic hostility directed their way and little more serious than that (although that can be serious if you run into ethnically hostile teachers, who do exist in substantial numbers), but it isn’t like what their sisters have to put up with.

    If you were from a relatively humble Christian family and had a blonde daughter, would you want her to attend an urban public school? Your best bet would be a Catholic school, but even that is out of reach for middle-income parents these days as urban housing costs skyrocket.

    It’s best to flee the city and all the costs one has to pay to insulate oneself from its distasteful elements. Why not go somewhere where your kids are like most of the other kids?

  75. MUSE says:
    @Uptown Resident
    James Howard Kunstler likens suburban upbringing to a form of child abuse. A kid remains dependent on his parents to chauffeur him from home to school to XYZ activity, and he is deprived of experiencing an activated civic life.

    There are plenty of good public schools in Chicago, especially since the economic downturn has led affluent north side whites to pull their kids from private school and collectively enroll them in now majority white public magnet schools. The Waters school district in the Lincoln Square area is excellent. Lane Tech High School is rated 6th in the state of Illinois.

    Chicago real estate is a steal compared to Coastal cities.

    There are plenty of good public schools in Chicago, especially since the economic downturn has led affluent north side whites to pull their kids from private school and collectively enroll them in now majority white public magnet schools. The Waters school district in the Lincoln Square area is excellent. Lane Tech High School is rated 6th in the state of Illinois.

    The selective enrollment elementary schools in Chicago Public Schools are OK, but I do not believe they are great. Having moved from the city to a north shore suburb, my kid went from a gifted magnet elementary that had test scores in the top five state wide with mostly A’s, yet required math tutoring for a year to catch up with the suburban kids in accelerated math.

    Additionally, the extracurricular opportunities do not come close to what is available in high quality suburban schools such as orchestra, band, art, music education and drama, as well as athletics. This is of course about the money, maybe culture as well. Chicago Public Schools spend a huge sum providing free breakfast and lunch, and lord knows where the rest of the money goes, but given that the current superintendent is on leave during an investigation of no-bid contracts, one can guess.

    Don’t get me wrong, if you live in the city, selective enrollment programs are head and shoulders above most neighborhood schools (with a few exceptions); compared to Latin, Lab and the British School – not so much. Some of the selective enrollment High schools are quite good, but this is primarily because of the extreme selectivity of admissions. The reality though is that the vast majority of kids can’t get in, so where does that leave parents. Well off whites can afford to try their luck in the city because ultimately, they can afford private or east coast prep if junior can’t get into Northside or Payton. (And yes, Lane is good and improving, but not quite Payton yet).

  76. @syonredux
    off-topic,

    Curious to see how the PC-POC reaction to MAD MAX: FURY ROAD will shape up.Miller brought on the author of the Vagina Monologues as a consultant, but she's been under attack lately:

    But Ensler's famous play doesn't fully withstand third-wave feminism's emphasis on intersectionality, a complex theory that embraces the idea that women of color and trans women shouldn't be left out of conversations about feminist issues.

    Many modern feminists believe the Vagina Monologues promotes an outdated view of gender because it doesn't encompass transgender and genderqueer identities. Last month, the Mount Holyoke College theatre department canceled its production of the play for this reason after sustained protest from campus feminists.

    In addition, most of the monologues are written from the perspective of middle-class straight white women, which doesn't exactly allow the play to showcase a wide range of experience of womanhood. One online feminist journal, The Knoll, argues that "the Monologues are a successful ‘global phenomenon’ precisely because they represent a fun, easy-to-digest pseudo-feminism."
     
    http://www.dailydot.com/politics/rosie-odonnell-eve-ensler-twitter/


    And the film is already under assault for not having enough non-Whites in the cast:

    Max Max: Fury Road is a spectacle set in a dystopian world. It has explosions, fast cars and bikes, 3D effects worthy of the medium, and gory deaths that were shocking, surprising, and rewarding. This movie seemingly has everything a Summer movie goer could want, except a cast that reflects and represents the demographic buying the tickets. If the target demographic of Mad Max: Fury Road is Aryan with one token Black person out of all the viewers, then Mad Max is representative of it’s audience. [.....]

    However, at a certain point in the movie you might realize something is a little off about the world of Mad Max: Fury Road. For some, you notice it in the first 5 minutes, for others much later, but unless you’re blind, at some point in the film, you may find yourself shocked at the glaring omission of minorities in…the…entire…movie. Yes, there was ONE cast member that was Black, the lovely Zoë Kravitz, and to be perfectly honest, it took me 30 minutes to realize that her character was not White and that it was Zoë Kravitz, but that could just be me. Either way, she’s the only one in this film who is not Caucasian. The entire cast whether main character or extra is White. It became so comical to me in a “I can’t believe this BS” way, that I yelled out in the theater “I guess all the minorities are extinct” and most of the audience laughed out loud. I guess they were thinking the same thing.

     

    Interesting how the roughly 50% White Zoe Kravitz (bother of her "Black" parents are half-White) is insufficiently Black for some....

    http://theblackgeeks.com/does-mad-max-have-a-diversity-problem/


    Awaiting the Lumpengentsia's final verdict.....

    So Mad Max is a utopian story, then?

  77. I’m black and rural. My husband is Nordic and rural. Our kids are being raised exurban/rural. I think it will work out, although we do *gasp* drive to buy hay and that kind of thing. Sometimes I feel bad about my children not being raised as SWPLs, but then I read threads like this and feel pretty relaxed about raising a bunch of rural-dwelling kids who will be able to get along in any kind of environment. Clever country folk tend to be pretty adaptable in my experience.

  78. OT: article about genetic wanderlust http://news.bitofnews.com/the-wanderlust-gene-why-some-people-are-born-to-travel-all-over-the-world/

    Wanderlust is SWPL therefore noticing is OK.

  79. It’s all so much easier in NZ. You just look up the school’s decile. Everything you need to know in one easy number. The rest of the government report on the quality of the school is PC rubbish and can be ignored.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_schools_in_the_Auckland_Region

    If even a decile-ten school is too down-market, you can go private. Supposedly egalitarian NZ is a small country and we all know the names of the snooty schools – St. Andrew’s and Christ’s College in Canterbury, Wanganui Collegiate etc etc….

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    Off topic, but what sports are most popular in New Zealand? From what people tell me, NZers pretty much only care about Rugby and, to a lesser extent, AFL.
  80. FWIW says:

    Yazoo, Mississippi. Prior to the Civil War, it was a boomtown. I had family there.

    After the Civil War? Just like anywhere that lost a war, a great place to be from. The family got out in the late 1860’s and never looked back. Anyone with any money got out. Maybe some heavily landed tried to hang on.

    An interesting note. This was only settled starting in the 1830’s. There is some sort of mythology that the old south was around for decades.

    One thing about Americans … they will pick up and move for money. That’s why they went there and that’s why they left.

    Also, that is one of the reasons Mississippi and Alabama have been on the bottom for decades … it was depopulated by the exact people it needed.

    It was also one of the last places in America to eradicate malaria. They could never quite do it 100% until the federal government and DDT.

    DDT is much better than its rep. Screw the birds. Malaria is a real bitch Gotta think it would be a good idea in the world problem areas

  81. @22pp22
    It's all so much easier in NZ. You just look up the school's decile. Everything you need to know in one easy number. The rest of the government report on the quality of the school is PC rubbish and can be ignored.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_schools_in_the_Auckland_Region

    If even a decile-ten school is too down-market, you can go private. Supposedly egalitarian NZ is a small country and we all know the names of the snooty schools - St. Andrew's and Christ's College in Canterbury, Wanganui Collegiate etc etc....

    Off topic, but what sports are most popular in New Zealand? From what people tell me, NZers pretty much only care about Rugby and, to a lesser extent, AFL.

    • Replies: @22pp22
    Rugby is central to Kiwi identity as it permits a nation of 4.4 million to be world champs in something. Women's netball is also quite big thing (Silver Ferns). Occasionally the country takes as interest in soccer, as when NZ drew with Italy in the World Cup. The Black Caps are the national cricket team and they have quite a big following. Men's basketball is now quite popular. Golf club membershp is cheap and easily obtained.

    NZ also does very well in the Olympics for a small country and on a couple of recent occasions has topped the per capita medals list. The rowing teams get alot of coverage and the large Polynesian population gives us a natural advantage in things like the shotput. Valerie Adams is Olympic gold medalist and national heroine. Kiwis also occasionally produce world champions in other sports like squash and sailing.

    For a couple of small islands a long way from anywhere, there is a lot to do and we have a great cultural life.

  82. @JohnnyWalker123
    Off topic, but what sports are most popular in New Zealand? From what people tell me, NZers pretty much only care about Rugby and, to a lesser extent, AFL.

    Rugby is central to Kiwi identity as it permits a nation of 4.4 million to be world champs in something. Women’s netball is also quite big thing (Silver Ferns). Occasionally the country takes as interest in soccer, as when NZ drew with Italy in the World Cup. The Black Caps are the national cricket team and they have quite a big following. Men’s basketball is now quite popular. Golf club membershp is cheap and easily obtained.

    NZ also does very well in the Olympics for a small country and on a couple of recent occasions has topped the per capita medals list. The rowing teams get alot of coverage and the large Polynesian population gives us a natural advantage in things like the shotput. Valerie Adams is Olympic gold medalist and national heroine. Kiwis also occasionally produce world champions in other sports like squash and sailing.

    For a couple of small islands a long way from anywhere, there is a lot to do and we have a great cultural life.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    Thanks for the response.

    From what I've seen, the Polynesians and Maoris seem very dominant in rugby. Are there opportunities for White New Zealanders to compete in that sport?
  83. @Ezra
    An iSteve-ish topic to explore in regards to this dataset would be how much of the impact of moving to different neighborhoods runs through the channel of Affordable Family Formation. If a family is moving to a country with cheap enough housing so that Mom can afford to stay home, then maybe she can invest more time in the younger sibling and get better outcomes. If a yuppie family moves to Manhattan so Mommy has to work to cover the rent, then maybe the younger sib gets not enough attention.

    Probably the county level nature of the dataset makes it hard to examine the effect of immigration on different areas of California, since California counties are the size of Delaware.

    Right, Chetty has the detail in his database to look at the zip code level within counties, which is in many ways more interesting. His latest analysis looks at people who moved at least 100 miles, but that seems kind of backwards. People move across the country for job or family reasons that are often pretty idiosyncratic. But what people talk about all the time is moving to a different part of what Chetty calls your “Commuting Zone.” You can constantly find people around you to talk to about moving somewhere else nearby, but you probably won’t run into anybody from Sioux County, Iowa who can give you an informed opinion on the place.

    I’d be fascinated by an intergenerational analysis of just people who moved within the five counties of Southern California. That’s over 5% of the population of the whole country right there. Heck Los Angeles County alone is 10 million people.

  84. @MW
    From the Mazumder article you linked:

    As with previous studies linking AFQT scores to racial differences in adult outcomes (e.g. Neal and Johnson, 1996; Cameron and Heckman, 2001), I do not interpret these scores as measuring innate endowments but rather they reflect the accumulated differences in family background and other influences.
     
    Oh well. He still manages to make some important points.

    Mazumder is careful to not state any thought crimes, but I doubt that he quite believes in the nurturist story. Elsewhere he has admitted that IQ appears to be under strong genetic control. In any case his analyses are excellent and don’t depend on any nurturist theory.

  85. P says:
    @Ezra
    I think Steve Sailer makes a good point about some of the consequences of Chetty's ex post reasoning, but I am not sure he has quite captured the nature of the thought experiment that Chetty is running.

    Chetty and Hendren measures the impact of growing up in a certain place by comparing the adult incomes of people who moved to that place with the income of their older brothers and sisters who grew up someplace else. This means that some of the pure parent effects should wash out. For instance, I think their results are exempt from the criticism that the results are just a regression to the racial mean, since the older brother should be the same race as the younger brother. Also, it might be true that loser parents are more likely to move to Loserville, but that doesn't explain why older sister doesnt have the same loser stink as younger sister.

    It is probably true that younger sister who grew up in a Badlucksville is probably more attached and didn't move out after all of the work dried up like older brother who never came back after the Army.

    I agree that the sibling analysis constitutes Chetty’s best evidence for the causal influence on human capital of local environments. His analysis is so complex though that I don’t quite understand it yet. There are lots of potential confounds that make the results difficult to interpret:

    1) Many of the best and worst places identified by Chetty seem to be explainable by race effects and local economic booms and busts. To what extent do these drive his overall results?

    2) Chetty’s sample is weird in that it consists entirely of people who choose to relocate for whatever reason, i.e., it’s selected and unrepresentative and the results cannot really be generalized to the entire population.

    3) The IRS income data have been shown to be rather unreliable elsewhere.

    4) Income was measured when the participants were between 24 and 30, and is therefore a poor indicator of lifetime income.

    5) While Chetty et al. claim that the study is about the influence of neighborhoods on children, they actually analyze commuting zones and counties which can be very large and include very different neighborhoods, making the claim of neighborhood effects dubious.

    6) Race is not observed in Chetty’s data, so differences in relocation effects between races cannot be calculated.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Chetty has gotten himself hung up on long moves between regions -- I think his latest paper looking at siblings has a restriction that he'll only consider moves of at least 100 miles.

    But most people spend far more time thinking about moving within their current commuting zone. That was a topic of constant lunch discussion when I lived in Chicago. Moving across country came up much less often because you didn't have a critical mass of people at the lunch table who'd thought about moving to a particular location far away. But everybody had an opinion on subjects like whether the schools were better in Lake County or DuPage County.

    , @Ezra
    1) Many of the best and worst places identified by Chetty seem to be explainable by race effects and local economic booms and busts. To what extent do these drive his overall results?

    Apparently, only to the extent that these affect younger siblings different than older siblings. Which, in the case of the latter, seems quite plausible.

    2) Chetty’s sample is weird in that it consists entirely of people who choose to relocate for whatever reason, i.e., it’s selected and unrepresentative and the results cannot really be generalized to the entire population.

    Especially, since it probably over-selects remarriage. I am not sure how Chetty deals with half-siblings which by the 1990's are probably a lot more common. If loser step-dad moves his family to Loserton and his own kid does worse than older half-brother, is that nurture or nature?


    3) The IRS income data have been shown to be rather unreliable elsewhere.

    Probably more reliable away from the extremes of the distribution.

    4) Income was measured when the participants were between 24 and 30, and is therefore a poor indicator of lifetime income.

    It makes me suspicious that Ann Arbor is supposedly a bad place for your kids to grow up. Maybe just means they are more likely to go to grad school.

    5) While Chetty et al. claim that the study is about the influence of neighborhoods on children, they actually analyze commuting zones and counties which can be very large and include very different neighborhoods, making the claim of neighborhood effects dubious.

    Measurement error should bias results toward zero, though. Seems like they have enough data to analyze zip codes though.

    6) Race is not observed in Chetty’s data, so differences in relocation effects between races cannot be calculated.

    True
  86. @P
    I agree that the sibling analysis constitutes Chetty's best evidence for the causal influence on human capital of local environments. His analysis is so complex though that I don't quite understand it yet. There are lots of potential confounds that make the results difficult to interpret:

    1) Many of the best and worst places identified by Chetty seem to be explainable by race effects and local economic booms and busts. To what extent do these drive his overall results?

    2) Chetty's sample is weird in that it consists entirely of people who choose to relocate for whatever reason, i.e., it's selected and unrepresentative and the results cannot really be generalized to the entire population.

    3) The IRS income data have been shown to be rather unreliable elsewhere.

    4) Income was measured when the participants were between 24 and 30, and is therefore a poor indicator of lifetime income.

    5) While Chetty et al. claim that the study is about the influence of neighborhoods on children, they actually analyze commuting zones and counties which can be very large and include very different neighborhoods, making the claim of neighborhood effects dubious.

    6) Race is not observed in Chetty's data, so differences in relocation effects between races cannot be calculated.

    Chetty has gotten himself hung up on long moves between regions — I think his latest paper looking at siblings has a restriction that he’ll only consider moves of at least 100 miles.

    But most people spend far more time thinking about moving within their current commuting zone. That was a topic of constant lunch discussion when I lived in Chicago. Moving across country came up much less often because you didn’t have a critical mass of people at the lunch table who’d thought about moving to a particular location far away. But everybody had an opinion on subjects like whether the schools were better in Lake County or DuPage County.

    • Replies: @Boomstick
    If he's limiting himself to families that moved, the obvious question is why did they move? Many people will stay in one place absent a reason to move. Where they driven out by bad economics? Attracted by better prospects elsewhere? Simple restlessness? I suspect his data set has a rather large selection bias.
    , @The Practical Conservative
    Yeah, we spent a long time crunching commute numbers before settling in our current spot and if we had to do it again, we'd've traded a longer commute for a more fully rural environment or spent a little more and moved somewhere bike-commute friendly (due to the high SWPL percentages since we live in whitopia, there's a lot of safe bike paths to major employers if you pay the housing premium of 30-50% more in money or 30-50% worse in housing stock quality and want the exercise of biking 8-20 miles per day).

    But commutes are health nightmares if you can't take a train, bus or ironman-bike it. My husband can avoid driving for most of his commute most of the time as we moved to a commuting hub a short drive away from employment and good, decent acreage properties at decent prices for the coastal area, but it affects future work prospects in that he has to consider work near the commuting hubs to keep his drive time low. Or get a driver (more people should, unless self-drive hits prime-time).

    But at least our kids get to play in acres of woods and rolling fields and get donkey, pony and horse rides and lessons from the neighbors.
  87. @The Last Real Calvinist

    Are you sure that the bias stems from you not being “Dutch”? I’d suspect that it’s more of local vs. newcomer issue.

     

    Much as it pains me to say this, Sioux County Citizen might be on to something real. I'm as Dutch as King Willem-Alexander, and grew up in Sioux County, so it seems a perfectly friendly place to me. But I certainly heard from non-Dutch friends I grew up with (many of whom had lived in Sioux County for many years) that they (and they parents) felt subtly left out in some ways. I think foremost was the fact that if you're of Dutch extraction in American-Dutch enclaves, you're very likely a member of a church that's part of either the Reformed Church of America, or the Christian Reformed Church (i.e. the two traditionally-Dutch protestant denominations in the USA; the rivalry between people who belong to these churches is a whole other post). Church activities play a prominent role in day-to-day Sioux County life, so if you're a Roman Catholic, or even a Lutheran, or (God forbid) unchurched, you're left out of a very active network. Now, I do think things have loosened up somewhat in recent years, but I don't doubt there's still some of this going on.

    BTW, in response to your other post above, it's great that you came as close to Sioux County as Le Mars, but rest assured that it's not the same thing. Le Mars was always considered a bit déclassé from the SC point of view, at least when I lived there . . . .

    And w/r/t the demographics that SCC mentioned, I agree that there's no way Sioux County is still 97% white; there are a lot of Hispanics around. But there's also no way their numbers are close to 35% of the population. Hispanic kids might comprise 35% of the public school kids in some places, but I looked up a couple of census sites, and they put Sioux County's Hispanic population in the 9% range, which seems about right. No question, though, that even this is a huge change -- when I was growing up there in the 70s and 80s the population would surely have been 97% white, or maybe even higher.

    Thanks. Didn’t realize that Le Mars was the Oakland to Sioux County’s San Francisco. I only popped in a couple of times to play baseball.

    I’m surprised to hear that the area now has Hispanics. Growing up in the 80s, I don’t remember any Hispanics – I mean, zero. There were a fair number of Indians but no Hispanics. My area was family farms and the university so not much need for cheap foreign labor. The farms grew corn and soybean, so they were highly mechanized. The families plus some occasional help from high school kids handled the labor needs. The university and businesses in town always had plenty of students – high school and college – willing to work for minimum wage.

    Now, Sioux City had Hispanics to work at the meat processing plants. (I can still remember that smell driving down I29.) Minnesota had them as well for sugar beets and other types of farms. The tide rolls in everywhere, I suppose.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    I’m surprised to hear that the area now has Hispanics. Growing up in the 80s, I don’t remember any Hispanics – I mean, zero
     
    A friend who grew up a few miles north of the Iowa border tells me her best friend in grade school was the daughter of a migrant worker, and there were enough of those to form a soccer team. (They called it Azteca.)
    These girls are Obama's age.

    Urban Hispanics are new to Minnesota and the Dakotas, but in the farm towns, Mexicans have been around for generations.
  88. @Steve Sailer
    Chetty has gotten himself hung up on long moves between regions -- I think his latest paper looking at siblings has a restriction that he'll only consider moves of at least 100 miles.

    But most people spend far more time thinking about moving within their current commuting zone. That was a topic of constant lunch discussion when I lived in Chicago. Moving across country came up much less often because you didn't have a critical mass of people at the lunch table who'd thought about moving to a particular location far away. But everybody had an opinion on subjects like whether the schools were better in Lake County or DuPage County.

    If he’s limiting himself to families that moved, the obvious question is why did they move? Many people will stay in one place absent a reason to move. Where they driven out by bad economics? Attracted by better prospects elsewhere? Simple restlessness? I suspect his data set has a rather large selection bias.

  89. Where’s the Best Place to Move for Your Children’s Sake?

    Any place where kids still roam freely and play ball without parents, coaches and expensive equipment.

  90. @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Thanks. Didn't realize that Le Mars was the Oakland to Sioux County's San Francisco. I only popped in a couple of times to play baseball.

    I'm surprised to hear that the area now has Hispanics. Growing up in the 80s, I don't remember any Hispanics - I mean, zero. There were a fair number of Indians but no Hispanics. My area was family farms and the university so not much need for cheap foreign labor. The farms grew corn and soybean, so they were highly mechanized. The families plus some occasional help from high school kids handled the labor needs. The university and businesses in town always had plenty of students - high school and college - willing to work for minimum wage.

    Now, Sioux City had Hispanics to work at the meat processing plants. (I can still remember that smell driving down I29.) Minnesota had them as well for sugar beets and other types of farms. The tide rolls in everywhere, I suppose.

    I’m surprised to hear that the area now has Hispanics. Growing up in the 80s, I don’t remember any Hispanics – I mean, zero

    A friend who grew up a few miles north of the Iowa border tells me her best friend in grade school was the daughter of a migrant worker, and there were enough of those to form a soccer team. (They called it Azteca.)
    These girls are Obama’s age.

    Urban Hispanics are new to Minnesota and the Dakotas, but in the farm towns, Mexicans have been around for generations.

    • Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Hmm. My area must have missed the vibrancy in the 80s. And we were just about 30 miles up I29 from Sioux City. Can't say that I'm sadden by that fact. In many ways, my childhood was more like the 1950s and early 1960s than the 1980s. Maybe that's why I identify with Sailer. I understand that it was a nice place to live, and I'm not sure why there's this burning desire to destroy that world.
  91. @Steve Sailer
    Chetty has gotten himself hung up on long moves between regions -- I think his latest paper looking at siblings has a restriction that he'll only consider moves of at least 100 miles.

    But most people spend far more time thinking about moving within their current commuting zone. That was a topic of constant lunch discussion when I lived in Chicago. Moving across country came up much less often because you didn't have a critical mass of people at the lunch table who'd thought about moving to a particular location far away. But everybody had an opinion on subjects like whether the schools were better in Lake County or DuPage County.

    Yeah, we spent a long time crunching commute numbers before settling in our current spot and if we had to do it again, we’d’ve traded a longer commute for a more fully rural environment or spent a little more and moved somewhere bike-commute friendly (due to the high SWPL percentages since we live in whitopia, there’s a lot of safe bike paths to major employers if you pay the housing premium of 30-50% more in money or 30-50% worse in housing stock quality and want the exercise of biking 8-20 miles per day).

    But commutes are health nightmares if you can’t take a train, bus or ironman-bike it. My husband can avoid driving for most of his commute most of the time as we moved to a commuting hub a short drive away from employment and good, decent acreage properties at decent prices for the coastal area, but it affects future work prospects in that he has to consider work near the commuting hubs to keep his drive time low. Or get a driver (more people should, unless self-drive hits prime-time).

    But at least our kids get to play in acres of woods and rolling fields and get donkey, pony and horse rides and lessons from the neighbors.

  92. @Reg Cæsar

    I’m surprised to hear that the area now has Hispanics. Growing up in the 80s, I don’t remember any Hispanics – I mean, zero
     
    A friend who grew up a few miles north of the Iowa border tells me her best friend in grade school was the daughter of a migrant worker, and there were enough of those to form a soccer team. (They called it Azteca.)
    These girls are Obama's age.

    Urban Hispanics are new to Minnesota and the Dakotas, but in the farm towns, Mexicans have been around for generations.

    Hmm. My area must have missed the vibrancy in the 80s. And we were just about 30 miles up I29 from Sioux City. Can’t say that I’m sadden by that fact. In many ways, my childhood was more like the 1950s and early 1960s than the 1980s. Maybe that’s why I identify with Sailer. I understand that it was a nice place to live, and I’m not sure why there’s this burning desire to destroy that world.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    "In many ways, my childhood was more like the 1950s and early 1960s than the 1980s. Maybe that’s why I identify with Sailer. I understand that it was a nice place to live, and I’m not sure why there’s this burning desire to destroy that world."

    I wonder that, too. It doesn't make a lot of sense.
  93. @Uptown Resident
    DFW's suicide was the result of a mental illness and mismanaged SSRIs, not of living in central Illinois. I've heard wonderful things about DFW's father, a professor of philosophy at UIC renowned for his brilliant lecturing style and personal kindness.

    He was living in California when he killed himself, IIRC.

  94. @P
    I agree that the sibling analysis constitutes Chetty's best evidence for the causal influence on human capital of local environments. His analysis is so complex though that I don't quite understand it yet. There are lots of potential confounds that make the results difficult to interpret:

    1) Many of the best and worst places identified by Chetty seem to be explainable by race effects and local economic booms and busts. To what extent do these drive his overall results?

    2) Chetty's sample is weird in that it consists entirely of people who choose to relocate for whatever reason, i.e., it's selected and unrepresentative and the results cannot really be generalized to the entire population.

    3) The IRS income data have been shown to be rather unreliable elsewhere.

    4) Income was measured when the participants were between 24 and 30, and is therefore a poor indicator of lifetime income.

    5) While Chetty et al. claim that the study is about the influence of neighborhoods on children, they actually analyze commuting zones and counties which can be very large and include very different neighborhoods, making the claim of neighborhood effects dubious.

    6) Race is not observed in Chetty's data, so differences in relocation effects between races cannot be calculated.

    1) Many of the best and worst places identified by Chetty seem to be explainable by race effects and local economic booms and busts. To what extent do these drive his overall results?

    Apparently, only to the extent that these affect younger siblings different than older siblings. Which, in the case of the latter, seems quite plausible.

    2) Chetty’s sample is weird in that it consists entirely of people who choose to relocate for whatever reason, i.e., it’s selected and unrepresentative and the results cannot really be generalized to the entire population.

    Especially, since it probably over-selects remarriage. I am not sure how Chetty deals with half-siblings which by the 1990’s are probably a lot more common. If loser step-dad moves his family to Loserton and his own kid does worse than older half-brother, is that nurture or nature?

    3) The IRS income data have been shown to be rather unreliable elsewhere.

    Probably more reliable away from the extremes of the distribution.

    4) Income was measured when the participants were between 24 and 30, and is therefore a poor indicator of lifetime income.

    It makes me suspicious that Ann Arbor is supposedly a bad place for your kids to grow up. Maybe just means they are more likely to go to grad school.

    5) While Chetty et al. claim that the study is about the influence of neighborhoods on children, they actually analyze commuting zones and counties which can be very large and include very different neighborhoods, making the claim of neighborhood effects dubious.

    Measurement error should bias results toward zero, though. Seems like they have enough data to analyze zip codes though.

    6) Race is not observed in Chetty’s data, so differences in relocation effects between races cannot be calculated.

    True

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Chetty should refocus on local moves with major metropolitan areas.
  95. @Ezra
    1) Many of the best and worst places identified by Chetty seem to be explainable by race effects and local economic booms and busts. To what extent do these drive his overall results?

    Apparently, only to the extent that these affect younger siblings different than older siblings. Which, in the case of the latter, seems quite plausible.

    2) Chetty’s sample is weird in that it consists entirely of people who choose to relocate for whatever reason, i.e., it’s selected and unrepresentative and the results cannot really be generalized to the entire population.

    Especially, since it probably over-selects remarriage. I am not sure how Chetty deals with half-siblings which by the 1990's are probably a lot more common. If loser step-dad moves his family to Loserton and his own kid does worse than older half-brother, is that nurture or nature?


    3) The IRS income data have been shown to be rather unreliable elsewhere.

    Probably more reliable away from the extremes of the distribution.

    4) Income was measured when the participants were between 24 and 30, and is therefore a poor indicator of lifetime income.

    It makes me suspicious that Ann Arbor is supposedly a bad place for your kids to grow up. Maybe just means they are more likely to go to grad school.

    5) While Chetty et al. claim that the study is about the influence of neighborhoods on children, they actually analyze commuting zones and counties which can be very large and include very different neighborhoods, making the claim of neighborhood effects dubious.

    Measurement error should bias results toward zero, though. Seems like they have enough data to analyze zip codes though.

    6) Race is not observed in Chetty’s data, so differences in relocation effects between races cannot be calculated.

    True

    Chetty should refocus on local moves with major metropolitan areas.

    • Replies: @Ezra
    You are correct. Focusing on within commuting area neighborhood effects would help control for area level ex post economic shocks. I have no doubt that at least one of the approximately 100 papers Chetty will write with this data will do that.
  96. @22pp22
    Rugby is central to Kiwi identity as it permits a nation of 4.4 million to be world champs in something. Women's netball is also quite big thing (Silver Ferns). Occasionally the country takes as interest in soccer, as when NZ drew with Italy in the World Cup. The Black Caps are the national cricket team and they have quite a big following. Men's basketball is now quite popular. Golf club membershp is cheap and easily obtained.

    NZ also does very well in the Olympics for a small country and on a couple of recent occasions has topped the per capita medals list. The rowing teams get alot of coverage and the large Polynesian population gives us a natural advantage in things like the shotput. Valerie Adams is Olympic gold medalist and national heroine. Kiwis also occasionally produce world champions in other sports like squash and sailing.

    For a couple of small islands a long way from anywhere, there is a lot to do and we have a great cultural life.

    Thanks for the response.

    From what I’ve seen, the Polynesians and Maoris seem very dominant in rugby. Are there opportunities for White New Zealanders to compete in that sport?

  97. @Steve Sailer
    Chetty should refocus on local moves with major metropolitan areas.

    You are correct. Focusing on within commuting area neighborhood effects would help control for area level ex post economic shocks. I have no doubt that at least one of the approximately 100 papers Chetty will write with this data will do that.

  98. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country
    Hmm. My area must have missed the vibrancy in the 80s. And we were just about 30 miles up I29 from Sioux City. Can't say that I'm sadden by that fact. In many ways, my childhood was more like the 1950s and early 1960s than the 1980s. Maybe that's why I identify with Sailer. I understand that it was a nice place to live, and I'm not sure why there's this burning desire to destroy that world.

    “In many ways, my childhood was more like the 1950s and early 1960s than the 1980s. Maybe that’s why I identify with Sailer. I understand that it was a nice place to live, and I’m not sure why there’s this burning desire to destroy that world.”

    I wonder that, too. It doesn’t make a lot of sense.

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