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From my new column in Taki’s Magazine:
The Secret History of the 21st Century
by Steve Sailer
June 14, 2017The insightful blogger who goes by the moniker Spotted Toad has created a series of charts explaining the 2016 Electoral College results as a result of average home price in each state.
The pattern is much the same as it has been in every election since 2000: In states where younger white people can better afford to buy a home, they are more likely to be married, have more children, and vote more Republican. In states where whites are less able to afford a home, they marry later, have fewer children, and vote more Democratic. …
Trump won the 22 states with the cheapest homes, and 26 of the 27 least costly states. Conversely, Hillary Clinton carried 15 of the 16 states with the most expensive housing. …
Here is Spotted Toad’s graph showing the fifty states, with Trump’s share of the vote on the vertical axis and home values on the horizontal axis. The correlation coefficient for the relationship between Trump’s share of the vote and home values in each state was –0.76, a very strong negative correlation.
Read the whole thing there.
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Virginia Postrel, over at The Atlantic Monthly, noticed the same thing 10 years ago: “A Tale of Two Town Houses: Real estate may be as important as religion in explaining the infamous gap between red and blue states.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/11/a-tale-of-two-town-houses/306334/
To misquote Yogi Berra, "Nobody raises families in California anymore: there's too many people, and the schools are too crowded."
This theory seems to intuitively match one's experience in some places: say, Massachussetts, and San Francisco, where children do seem to be disappearing. But not California as a whole,and presumably not the states listed as a whole.
Its not children, or families, that are missing. Its children and families of a certain type. It may be white families (which, as I said, you obliquely mention). It may be middle class families (who want to raise children in a certain minimum of safety, and social/financial standard). And it may be conservative families (who want to raise children to a certain minimum of civilizational standard-which would include married parents). It may be that all three are actually the same.
But it simply doesn't do to suggest that California, whose population has doubled since 1970 (roughly the time you mention your observation of the state began), is making it harder to raise families. There are twice as many of them now*. It reminds me of the argument of the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians: Arab population in Israel has increased 10-fold in the last fifty years, making the Palestinian genocide the slowest genocide in history.
joe
*statistical evidence for your theory would be found in states where population (and specifically, school age population) is declining-I think you've mentioned West Virginia in the past?Replies: @AM
http://isteve.blogspot.com/2005/01/dirt-gap.html?m=1
OT
Here’s a new fake movie trailer by The Onion:
In the event, the sheer size of the place, its protection by the Indian Ocean and the Himalayan Mountains, and universal disinterest in such adventures in the modern era (reavers no longer require military conquest, as communication and transportation have made fungible commodities of everything – even people – which can be moved about as needed and controlled remotely).
Be interesting to analyse the UK in the same way, but mass Muslim immigration/chain migration skews the dynamic. They are prepared to accept lower housing standards and more people per house (like the Victorian British working class) to live amongst their own in places like Bradford and East London. Bradford/Burnley/Blackburn are among the cheapest places to live and buy a house while East London is among the most expensive.
I think whilst the elements Steve mentioned are perhaps an element I still see the US as determined by the old Albion seed patterns that are now be slowly overrode by ethnic factors due to mass post 65 immigration. So the rustbelt will continue to go more Republican with perhaps places like RI, NJ drifting that way too. A similar pattern that is observed in Britain.
Sometimes you're better off dead
There's gun in your hand and it's pointing at your head
You think you're mad, too unstable
Kicking in chairs and knocking down tables
In a restaurant in a West End town
Call the police, there's a madman around
Running down underground to a dive bar
In a West End town
https://youtu.be/p3j2NYZ8FKs
You've got a heart of glass or a heart of stone
Just you wait 'til I get you home
We've got no future, we've got no past
Here today, built to last
In every city, in every nation
From Lake Geneva to the Finland station*
(How far have you been?)
(* @ 3:04 the camera passes South Africa House showing a human geography of protestors in the Non-Stop Picket,a thousand days long anti-apartheid protest that was organized by City Group - an organization that, conveniently enough, mimics moniker of their cosmopoliethnocentric sponsors**. All Sailerites know how well that one ended... )
** In addition to U.S. money managers, Citigroup largest shareholders include Abu Dhabi, Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, and Singapore.Replies: @Charles Pewitt
Heck I think the only person they interviewed with an Anglo surname was black.Replies: @Jack D, @LondonBob
“easier to build houses and hard to immigrate.”
Agreed, but as we know, a major problem is that the GOP is run by the kind of people who would rather hire cheap immigrants than expensive Americans to build houses.
http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Building-Boom-Worker-Bust-20000-Construction-Workers-Needed-in-DFW-428085303.html
Also, I assume it was for space reasons that you left out a major aspect of the strategy: you need not just a house, but a house in a neighborhood where parents can execute Sailer’s One Point Plan for Preventing Racial Prejudice: Don’t let your kids get beaten up [or impregnated] by underclass minorities
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/429693/affh-preview-obamas-hud-takes-over-dubuque-iowa
http://www.vdare.com/articles/preventing-kid-prejudice-the-sailer-one-point-plan
https://www.unz.com/isteve/bad-students-not-bad-schools/
In the cities of Texas, just to take a random example of a Sand State that has been flooded with vibrancy by the cheap labor-loving oligarchs of the Stupid Party, houses as such are cheap, but houses with Magic Dirt and “good schools” are actually pretty expensive, in price or commute time or both.
And the Eye of Soros works overtime to make sure that there’s no guarantee that the Magic Dirt will stay that way:
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/news/2016/02/26/will-supreme-court-let-lawsuits-frighten-cities-into-accepting-affordable-housing
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20120122-sunnyvale-hit-with-new-suit-over-low-income-apartments.ece
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-news/mckinney/headlines/20150727-with-new-complex-mckinney-hopes-to-remake-its-affordable-housing-landscape.ece
These links refer to suburbs (really, exurbs) for married white Republicans who can’t afford to live in bourgeois-bohemian enclaves or to pay for 12 years of private school. They move there, and put up with hour-long commutes, specifically to avoid the vibrancy that already encompasses the entire inner ring of suburbs in soon-to-be purple-state Texas.
Let me take a stab at what the causation going on here is. I don’t really think low housing costs causes people to vote republican. Rather I think housing costs are the function of the number of elite white people a state has. Elite white people, who by the way like the high IQ family in idiocracy, are cautious and delay having children. Basically, high housing means that a state is going to have the high part of the democrats high-low coalition. Or just think of it this way, if the cost of housing where you lived went up drastically, would you be any more likely to vote democrat?
http://www.cbsnews.com/media/9-u-s-states-with-the-highest-income-inequality/10/
Still based on class and regional differences. The white areas of London, the highest house value areas, vote Conservative. Southern England remains Tory, as always, whereas the areas that just voted Tory in Scotland are the old NE areas and the borders (very unsurprising if you know the history of these regions of Scotland). The trend is demographically the Tories are being washed out of London (and cities like Birmingham) and formerly hostile areas in the North and Midlands which remain predominantly native are drifting Tory.
I think whilst the elements Steve mentioned are perhaps an element I still see the US as determined by the old Albion seed patterns that are now be slowly overrode by ethnic factors due to mass post 65 immigration. So the rustbelt will continue to go more Republican with perhaps places like RI, NJ drifting that way too. A similar pattern that is observed in Britain.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/11/a-tale-of-two-town-houses/306334/Replies: @joeyjoejoe, @Anonym
While interesting, this theory is missing something-and you seem to dance around it, without directly addressing it.
To misquote Yogi Berra, “Nobody raises families in California anymore: there’s too many people, and the schools are too crowded.”
This theory seems to intuitively match one’s experience in some places: say, Massachussetts, and San Francisco, where children do seem to be disappearing. But not California as a whole,and presumably not the states listed as a whole.
Its not children, or families, that are missing. Its children and families of a certain type. It may be white families (which, as I said, you obliquely mention). It may be middle class families (who want to raise children in a certain minimum of safety, and social/financial standard). And it may be conservative families (who want to raise children to a certain minimum of civilizational standard-which would include married parents). It may be that all three are actually the same.
But it simply doesn’t do to suggest that California, whose population has doubled since 1970 (roughly the time you mention your observation of the state began), is making it harder to raise families. There are twice as many of them now*. It reminds me of the argument of the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians: Arab population in Israel has increased 10-fold in the last fifty years, making the Palestinian genocide the slowest genocide in history.
joe
*statistical evidence for your theory would be found in states where population (and specifically, school age population) is declining-I think you’ve mentioned West Virginia in the past?
I've give you a place that I'm more familiar with the stats of as an example. Vermont is a blue state which has very high housing costs compared to the local wage base. It is right now bleeding young people and families of which we were one a few years ago. Here's the stats, with the end of the article talking about historical averages.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/money/2016/12/29/vermont-population-declining-out-migration-art-woolf/95886408/
The end of this article shows that Vermont mostly has stagnated since after the Civil War, which as my home stomping grounds, I can attest to. Very little new building and you can literally see it in the age of the housing, as it happens in waves. Some right around the civil war, a burst after WWII until the 1970's when the same environmental regs hit Vermont and shut down large track builds.
If Vermont had a better environment to build housing, it might kept up it's post WWII boom. As it is, it appears that the last (poor) person will need to shut off the lights.
Vermont should at this moment have much more of a population than it does. So too, I tend to think with California. At the very least, I suspect if you broke out those stats between whites and Mexicans, you'd discover negative or static growth in the white population, just as in Vermont.Replies: @Lurker, @DWB, @Marty T
Liberalism works by making more and more whites something no better off than serfs, while it (liberalism) rants about making everything and everybody equal. Equal as serfs.
The problem with getting alleged conservatives in power to see these things, is twofold. One issue is the American mythos means the vast majority of Americans simply do not want to believe that this country could regress in any way. They have faith in America. America is if not God at least the Divine Church of God.
The other issue is that many Republicans know these things and support them. Old money/old connections WASP Elites do not want anything like true social and power mobility. They want a replication of the British class system that works for them as Americans. They want their power made virtually permanent. And t do that, they must limit the opportunities of non-elite whites.
It should go without saying that Jews agree 100% with that WASP Elite way of seeing the world and the mass of whites – they are threats to neutralize so the ‘right’ people can wield power forever.
America's faith is Progress with a capital P, and it will hear nothing against her.
You're conflating Liberalism with Leftism/Globalism. Liberalism consistently advocated for higher living standards for working class people, while Leftism/Globalism support policies that bring the living standards in the West at parity with those of developing nations. Phyllis Schlafly called this process "leveling", and these polices are imposed through sustainable development/climate change treaties and policies. The Kyoto Accords are an example of how this is done.Replies: @Cloudbuster
Spotted Toad is, indeed, a very insightful writer. He/She sometimes comments here.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/11/a-tale-of-two-town-houses/306334/Replies: @joeyjoejoe, @Anonym
Steve did it 12 years ago. Postrel cribs his title, but does not credit Sailer.
http://isteve.blogspot.com/2005/01/dirt-gap.html?m=1
Environmental regulation is not a significant factor in housing price differentials between red and blue in most cases.
First, consider Washington DC. The Maryland and Virginia suburbs are as sprawling and overdeveloped as anywhere, with no significant limitation on either. There is also not a coastline hemming in one side. And yet the DC area is significantly more expensive than, say, similarly sized places such as Houston or Dallas.
Even considering your example of LA, aside from a few exceptions (Malibu, Beverly Hills) it is one of the most overdeveloped places on Earth, with uninterrupted housing and commercial development spreading over thousands of square miles. It is pretty much fully developed, again except for a few ultimately small exceptions. There is certainly not a lack of housing stock in Southern California. But LA is still expensive.
The most determining factor in expense seems to be the presence of a critical mass of high paying industries and employers.
We're on the brink of food wars because those stupid millennials built all those houses on the prime farm land! Also, when was the last time you saw a bee?I cringe when people bring up building regulations. They only matter in very particular places. I always look at a place like Belgium and feel sad that it's being paved over to fit more and more Arabs and North Africans.Might be an American/Australia/Canadian thing though, still haven't settled in to have as deep an attachment to the land.
So Steve, is Hawley’s 2011 U of Houston PhD thesis the first time an academic has unblushingly cited you?
Secret like the Purloined Letter was secret!
Kudos to Spotted Toad and Steve Sailer for bringing this information together in a succinct and easy to read format.
Spotted Toad does include a pair of UK maps, but without the numerical analysis. They look less compelling than the US maps. Unfortunately, Toad’s map pairs use colors to opposite effect within each pair, so for example in the US pair dark red means high housing cost (anti-Trump) on the property map but pro-Trump on the electoral map, which weakens the visual impact.
In other words, you were “redlined,” just like the blacks were in the 1950s. The Left had — and still has — a fit over “redlining” blacks, but only because they conscripted blacks to take the place of working-class whites in the Democratic Party coalition.
But now redlining is OK, so long as they’re keeping the white trash out in the name of the environment. The white man has become the n___er of the 21st century.
Mass Immigration Prevents Affordable Family Formation.
Mass Immigration Increases Housing Costs.
Mass Immigration Causes Suburban Sprawl.
Mass Immigration Swamps Schools.
President Trump should call for a halt to all legal immigration and deport all illegal alien invaders.
President Trump should say that mass immigration prevents AFFORDABLE FAMILY FORMATION.
White Core Americans Want AFFORDABLE FAMILY FORMATION.
bored identity was told that some things never change, until…they do:
Sometimes you’re better off dead
There’s gun in your hand and it’s pointing at your head
You think you’re mad, too unstable
Kicking in chairs and knocking down tables
In a restaurant in a West End town
Call the police, there’s a madman around
Running down underground to a dive bar
In a West End town
You’ve got a heart of glass or a heart of stone
Just you wait ’til I get you home
We’ve got no future, we’ve got no past
Here today, built to last
In every city, in every nation
From Lake Geneva to the Finland station*
(How far have you been?)
(* @ 3:04 the camera passes South Africa House showing a human geography of protestors in the Non-Stop Picket,a thousand days long anti-apartheid protest that was organized by City Group – an organization that, conveniently enough, mimics moniker of their cosmopoliethnocentric sponsors**. All Sailerites know how well that one ended… )
** In addition to U.S. money managers, Citigroup largest shareholders include Abu Dhabi, Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, and Singapore.
https://twitter.com/CroftonBooks/status/595978142566744064
My hope is that we can return many of the legal & illegal aliens to their countries of origin. And their progeny ought to go with them. Already too darned many people crowding my country; I think we need some breathing room.
There is increasingly more and more jobs that offer a telecommute option. So a person can work for a firm in an expensive city, for say $85,000 per year, and then buy a home in West Virginia and work there. Telecommuters are a growing segment of the workforce. I wonder how this will affect elections in the future.
If there was any labor cost advantage, it would be harvested by the employers, not the employees anyway.
No, but I would probably sell my house to a childless Democrat couple. I think that outcome is consistent with Steve’s theory.
In Chicago, housing in the city is hemmed in by Lake Michigan and the fact that Chicago cannot annex more land to grow. So you have the “Lakefront Liberals.” Just outside Chicago, in Dupage County, there was until recently tons of land to spread out. During this time Dupage County was one of the most Republican counties in the country. DuPage County has now been totally built out with no room to grow. Suddenly, in the last couple of elections, DuPage has become more of a blue county. The collar counties of Kane, Kendall, and McHenry are now Republican strongholds. There is plenty of land out there to spread out. Having said that though DuPage County has also become more of a Hispanic county in the past decade or so, with a growing black population.
Unfortunately, that saddles poor whites with the garbage people and contributes to the decline of rural America.
Today I learned that Pinterest blocks content from Taki’s.
http://i.imgur.com/mVwKpDt.jpgReplies: @Autochthon
Here's a new fake movie trailer by The Onion:Replies: @Autochthon
Absent an invasion and subsequent genocide (by the Chinese?), India is genetically incapable of ever becoming a superpower. But then it wouldn’t really be India that was the superpower, any more than one could now say the Iroquois or the Cherokee are a superpower….
In the event, the sheer size of the place, its protection by the Indian Ocean and the Himalayan Mountains, and universal disinterest in such adventures in the modern era (reavers no longer require military conquest, as communication and transportation have made fungible commodities of everything – even people – which can be moved about as needed and controlled remotely).
Doesn’t a lot of this come down to zoning laws? Blue states and the coasts tend to have restrictive policies, places like Texas have permissive policies and lots of land to turn into housing.
Seattle should be an interesting test case, it’s a coastal city that is investing heavily in pro-growth, pro-density policies. Developers are knocking down two story buildings and putting up towers all over the place.
Here in the San Francisco Bay area, the argument about housing costs arises virtually every day. One solution often suggested is for places to build "up," and the giant cities of Asia are often mentioned.
We are going to find out, one way or the other, aren't we?Replies: @Autochthon
Agreed, but as we know, a major problem is that the GOP is run by the kind of people who would rather hire cheap immigrants than expensive Americans to build houses.
http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Building-Boom-Worker-Bust-20000-Construction-Workers-Needed-in-DFW-428085303.htmlAlso, I assume it was for space reasons that you left out a major aspect of the strategy: you need not just a house, but a house in a neighborhood where parents can execute Sailer's One Point Plan for Preventing Racial Prejudice: Don't let your kids get beaten up [or impregnated] by underclass minorities
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/429693/affh-preview-obamas-hud-takes-over-dubuque-iowa
http://www.vdare.com/articles/preventing-kid-prejudice-the-sailer-one-point-plan
https://www.unz.com/isteve/bad-students-not-bad-schools/
In the cities of Texas, just to take a random example of a Sand State that has been flooded with vibrancy by the cheap labor-loving oligarchs of the Stupid Party, houses as such are cheap, but houses with Magic Dirt and "good schools" are actually pretty expensive, in price or commute time or both.
And the Eye of Soros works overtime to make sure that there's no guarantee that the Magic Dirt will stay that way:
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/news/2016/02/26/will-supreme-court-let-lawsuits-frighten-cities-into-accepting-affordable-housing
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20120122-sunnyvale-hit-with-new-suit-over-low-income-apartments.ece
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-news/mckinney/headlines/20150727-with-new-complex-mckinney-hopes-to-remake-its-affordable-housing-landscape.ece
These links refer to suburbs (really, exurbs) for married white Republicans who can't afford to live in bourgeois-bohemian enclaves or to pay for 12 years of private school. They move there, and put up with hour-long commutes, specifically to avoid the vibrancy that already encompasses the entire inner ring of suburbs in soon-to-be purple-state Texas.Replies: @Autochthon, @hhsiii
I love how this asshole actually reacts to people accepting the highest available wage with “Crazy, isn;t it?” and the idea that someone, somewhere, may earn $3.00 more an hour at backbreaking work (from contractors who doubtless own houses, probably with a couple of paid-for cars or trucks, and maybe even a boat) signals some kind of crisis requiring MOAR IMMIGRANTS and pipelining more natives into shop class. Because when the supply of labour contracts, two things can be done to achieve equilibrium again between supply and demand…and one of ’em is of course as inconceivable and horrifying as nuclear war or decapitating kittens.
To misquote Yogi Berra, "Nobody raises families in California anymore: there's too many people, and the schools are too crowded."
This theory seems to intuitively match one's experience in some places: say, Massachussetts, and San Francisco, where children do seem to be disappearing. But not California as a whole,and presumably not the states listed as a whole.
Its not children, or families, that are missing. Its children and families of a certain type. It may be white families (which, as I said, you obliquely mention). It may be middle class families (who want to raise children in a certain minimum of safety, and social/financial standard). And it may be conservative families (who want to raise children to a certain minimum of civilizational standard-which would include married parents). It may be that all three are actually the same.
But it simply doesn't do to suggest that California, whose population has doubled since 1970 (roughly the time you mention your observation of the state began), is making it harder to raise families. There are twice as many of them now*. It reminds me of the argument of the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians: Arab population in Israel has increased 10-fold in the last fifty years, making the Palestinian genocide the slowest genocide in history.
joe
*statistical evidence for your theory would be found in states where population (and specifically, school age population) is declining-I think you've mentioned West Virginia in the past?Replies: @AM
Sure, it’s impressive that CA has double the population since 1970. Great. How much population and how many young families would you expect if CA’s population matched national growth rates and/or the rate that was there in 1970? How many should there be? Not how many are right now.
I’ve give you a place that I’m more familiar with the stats of as an example. Vermont is a blue state which has very high housing costs compared to the local wage base. It is right now bleeding young people and families of which we were one a few years ago. Here’s the stats, with the end of the article talking about historical averages.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/money/2016/12/29/vermont-population-declining-out-migration-art-woolf/95886408/
The end of this article shows that Vermont mostly has stagnated since after the Civil War, which as my home stomping grounds, I can attest to. Very little new building and you can literally see it in the age of the housing, as it happens in waves. Some right around the civil war, a burst after WWII until the 1970’s when the same environmental regs hit Vermont and shut down large track builds.
If Vermont had a better environment to build housing, it might kept up it’s post WWII boom. As it is, it appears that the last (poor) person will need to shut off the lights.
Vermont should at this moment have much more of a population than it does. So too, I tend to think with California. At the very least, I suspect if you broke out those stats between whites and Mexicans, you’d discover negative or static growth in the white population, just as in Vermont.
California in 1980 had a total population of approximately 23 million people; of these, about 17.5 million were white.
In the most recent census (2010), the population was 37 million. of which 15 million or so were non-hispanic whites.
Now, some of the changes are due to the way census data are collected, but what is happening in California is what Steve likes to call "electing a new people."
Sources: https://www.census.gov/prod/www/decennial.html#y1980popv1ca
This just goes to prove what I have always suspected: affordably priced homes are racist.
I went to a wedding just outside Jackson, Mississippi last year. The bride’s parents hosted at their home- a mansion by anyone’s standards. Beautiful marble pool out back, with a poolhouse the size of most middle class homes. Sprawling green backyard, tall trees, a small private lake, another smaller home out back “for the help”. Probably around 7 acres.
I looked up the property value – just a little over 1 Million. I was floored. This kind of property would sell for at least 15 Million on Long Island.
The twist to the story is despite being Southern old money, the bride and her family are all die hard liberals.
“easier to build houses and hard to immigrate.”
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today’s 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can’t buy property.
As a "slum lord" I ask, what's wrong with me? I provide and maintain a valuable product for people who want and need it. The people I rent to need what I provide. They wouldn't be homeowners "if only Cloudbuster hand't bought all the property." They're people who can't afford and can't handle (or don't want -- wish I had more of those) the responsibility of homeownership. The work to maintain my rental houses is never-ending and exhausting, and I provide work to many working class men -- painters, plumbers, roofers, drywall-hangers, handymen, electricians, etc.
If you impose draconian costs like that on my business, I'll do everything in my power to avoid those taxes -- shell corporations for each house, etc.
This idea of confiscatory taxation on people who are actually productive really burns me.Replies: @HI
If you've lived 30 years or so by now in this country (probably any other too) you've got to have seen that taxes: only go up in rates, go down in coverage levels, and NEVER! GO! AWAY!
Does nobody on here know that the 16th Amendment of > 100 years back to impose and income tax had no maximum rate because people figured it would never apply to them, the little guys.? They were going to set a 7% max in there, but the politicians were all, " pshaww, this is just silly, it'll never apply to you, and no way will it get above a couple of %; not worth even debating." (Most of them meant it honestly, I'm sure).
Income tax, sales tax, local/city property tax, business licenses. Is that not enough?
I know, I know, these are ideas to set things right, is that it? Just tweek it like this to make people act right. These numbers will do what we need. I see the numbers you wrote as suggestions. How long do you think they will hold?
Oh, what if it turns out, that after a big bout of inflation, your house ends up smack dab in the target range of this Federal Property tax, and so does your whole block and mine.
THIS! STUFF! NEVER! GOES! AWAY!
I think maybe Michael Scott did say it better: "NO! GOD! NO!"Replies: @Autochthon
A law prohibiting any non-citizen from owning property in the US seems a fine idea, especially farm land and manufacturing plants, but it'd be simpler to stipulate that a deed would be null and void (hell, I'm no lawyer) were the holder not a US citizen.
This will not happen easily, as we know that there are plenty who are glad to sell the country out, including Warren Buffet's selling of rental property directly to foreigners. Hey, millennial renter, meet your new landlord "Yu Pye Daon".
The problem with getting alleged conservatives in power to see these things, is twofold. One issue is the American mythos means the vast majority of Americans simply do not want to believe that this country could regress in any way. They have faith in America. America is if not God at least the Divine Church of God.
The other issue is that many Republicans know these things and support them. Old money/old connections WASP Elites do not want anything like true social and power mobility. They want a replication of the British class system that works for them as Americans. They want their power made virtually permanent. And t do that, they must limit the opportunities of non-elite whites.
It should go without saying that Jews agree 100% with that WASP Elite way of seeing the world and the mass of whites - they are threats to neutralize so the 'right' people can wield power forever.Replies: @Autochthon, @Desiderius, @Anonymous
By hatchet, axe, and saw….
I don’t mean to be rude, but this idea belies an ignorance or naïveté of reality. Fewer and fewer jobs in technology (not more and more) accommodate telecommuting, because employers demand the control that only can be had by making employees sit in their facilities. Related to this, and more important still to their control, is that they want employees to always be making just barely enough to get by without paying so little the employees quit. Thus, even if you do work for a firm in New York but are permitted to telecommute from Wheeling, you can bet your bottom dollar the firm will adjust your offered salary accordingly, paying, say, $40,000.00 instead of $100,000.00 annually for the same work, backing up their ideas with data about relative costs of living and such. The plutocrats are not stupid: they realise that paying that telecommuter in Wheeling $100,000.00 annually merely ensures he can retire early on his paid for house and do what he likes with the rest of his life, and indeed if (heaven forfend!) there were enough such lucrative telecommuting options to create a competitive market for the worker’s services, he would not suffer half as much shit with a smile from any one particular employer, and there goes the desired compliant serfdom right out the window.
Even Traitorous Trump has admitted to this racket.
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today's 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can't buy property.Replies: @anon, @Jack D, @Anonymous, @Cloudbuster, @The preferred nomenclature is..., @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman
Yea … Especially where Americans can’t own property. In more than a few of those places, real estate is the only asset that will come close to retaining value. Like Argentina.
Meanwhile, highly off topic, but big news:
The US is phasing out coal. China is choking in its own mess and has to clean up a little bit. Economics controls carbon and the Paris thing? A nothing burger.
This is from BP. Better to read the original then the MSM version, although not too much spin in this.
I looked up the property value - just a little over 1 Million. I was floored. This kind of property would sell for at least 15 Million on Long Island.
The twist to the story is despite being Southern old money, the bride and her family are all die hard liberals.Replies: @AM, @Verymuchalive
From a certain POV, the very first liberal globalists in the US were in fact..drum roll please…rich Southerners. The South is conservative perhaps because they had to live with the plantation owners who merely saw widgets when they imported blacks into the South.
Spotted Toad’s home value numbers look whacky to me. If I am reading his graph correctly, the logarithms of his home values range from about 11.5 to about 13. When you undo the logarithm, that corresponds to actual home values of 10^11.5 to 10^13 ($316,227,766,016 to $10,000,000,000,000). These are ridiculous numbers and they make me wonder about the validity of the rest of Spotted Toad’s analysis.
And why use logarithms in the first place for an analysis like this? Why not just use plain old median home prices as the independant variable?
Also, to nit pick, his dependant axis is mislabeled. The numbers are not, as claimed, the percent of the vote received by Trump, they are, I presume, the percent divided by 100.
I think that most people would not know about natural logarithms and even if they did, there would be no reason to use them on the horizontal axis. Common logarithms are the ones that most people know about - that is why they are called "common logarithms" or just "logarithms".
Sometimes using a logarithmic scale, instead of the usual linear one, is appropriate, but I can't see any reason for doing so in this case. However, even if a logarithmic scale is used, it should be labelled with the obvious units, meaning dollars in this case. I mean, would you tell anyone that the natural logarithm of your house's price was 12.43, instead of saying it was worth $250,000?
I agree that the vertical axis is mislabelled, and that the numbers need to be multiplied by 100 to give percentages.
I think that the graph gives very useful information, in spite of how badly it has been labelled.Replies: @anon, @1972 heartbreak kid
There was a shooting in Alexandria Virginia
Looks at the facts and start feeling those chickens coming home to roost
Who's the black private dick
that's a sex machine to all the chicks?
(Shaft!)
You're damn right
Who is the man
that would risk his neck for his brother man?
(Shaft!)
Can ya dig it?
Who's the cat that won't cop out
when there's danger all about
(Shaft!)
Right on
You see this cat Shaft is a bad mother--
(Shut your mouth)
But I'm talkin' about Shaft
(Then we can dig it)
He's a complicated man
but no one understands him but his woman
(John Shaft)
- Leonard Pitts
The problem is that Spotted Toad’s amenities include high paying jobs.
The traditional ‘professions’ — doctor/lawyer/&c. — can do OK anywhere. Your typical consultant needs to live around large pools of money to survive.
The problem with getting alleged conservatives in power to see these things, is twofold. One issue is the American mythos means the vast majority of Americans simply do not want to believe that this country could regress in any way. They have faith in America. America is if not God at least the Divine Church of God.
The other issue is that many Republicans know these things and support them. Old money/old connections WASP Elites do not want anything like true social and power mobility. They want a replication of the British class system that works for them as Americans. They want their power made virtually permanent. And t do that, they must limit the opportunities of non-elite whites.
It should go without saying that Jews agree 100% with that WASP Elite way of seeing the world and the mass of whites - they are threats to neutralize so the 'right' people can wield power forever.Replies: @Autochthon, @Desiderius, @Anonymous
You said it better in the first sentence.
America’s faith is Progress with a capital P, and it will hear nothing against her.
Snobbery clothed in her best SJW bullshit.
I believe that Geffen has/had private beach properties on both coasts, Malibu and the Hamptons. Geffen is after all notorious for throwing “NonStandard” Pool/Foam Parties where hosts Hollywood’s and Wall Street’s Gay &| Jewish Mafia.
Likewise I remember Rob Reiner decades ago being on Johnny Carson and explaining that what he loved about the exclusivity of living on the beach in Malibu was running into neighbors like the 70s era Bionic Woman Lindsay Wagner out enjoying a completely naked stroll.
Sense the need to keep the riff-raff far and away???
“Trump is a Traitor. Trump Has Destroyed Our Democracy. It’s Time to Destroy Trump & Co.”
Was the shooter quoting a NY Times’ editorial?
There is plenty of room to grow in Chicago. The problem is much of that empty space is adjacent to or in the middle of territory populated by the perpetual, hyper-violent underclass. No one in their right mind will live in those areas. The best option for the city is the Daley Negro Dispersal Protocol (DNDP).
Unfortunately, that saddles poor whites with the garbage people and contributes to the decline of rural America.
First, consider Washington DC. The Maryland and Virginia suburbs are as sprawling and overdeveloped as anywhere, with no significant limitation on either. There is also not a coastline hemming in one side. And yet the DC area is significantly more expensive than, say, similarly sized places such as Houston or Dallas.
Even considering your example of LA, aside from a few exceptions (Malibu, Beverly Hills) it is one of the most overdeveloped places on Earth, with uninterrupted housing and commercial development spreading over thousands of square miles. It is pretty much fully developed, again except for a few ultimately small exceptions. There is certainly not a lack of housing stock in Southern California. But LA is still expensive.
The most determining factor in expense seems to be the presence of a critical mass of high paying industries and employers.Replies: @Altai
Alt-Right 2050:
We’re on the brink of food wars because those stupid millennials built all those houses on the prime farm land! Also, when was the last time you saw a bee?
I cringe when people bring up building regulations. They only matter in very particular places. I always look at a place like Belgium and feel sad that it’s being paved over to fit more and more Arabs and North Africans.
Might be an American/Australia/Canadian thing though, still haven’t settled in to have as deep an attachment to the land.
Scott Adams’ blog:
Also, I’d love to see that broken down by county.
The shooter was a Bernie volunteer (Bernie’s disowned him). His FB is archived here.
https://archive.fo/8L9Se
No, congressman this is a show of how divided we are.
How many Bernie fans like Maddow? I smell Clinton.
If the Republican party wanted to kick off a White baby boom it should aim to unite both middle class environmentalists and the middle/working classes by pushing for the repeal of Shelly Vs Kraemer, the 1948 SCOTUS decision that outlawed restrictive covenants.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelley_v._Kraemer
As Paul Kersey at SPBDL has documented for almost a decade the Shelly decision has both devastated and depopulated vast sections of urban and inner suburban real estate. There are vast tracks of affordable land in Blue/Purple states to be had if Shelly was reversed with only modest effect on actual rates of segregation.
Non millionaire environmentalist should love the idea that billions of barrels of oil and tons of GHGs would not have to be burned and emitted simply in order for middle and working to bankrupt themselves attempting to seek out their own rights of freedom of association.
A better meme for the “Environmentalism” of the mega rich like Reiner and Geffen would after all be “Kosher Covenants”. If the Stupid Party every regained its balls it would forget about trying to reverse Roe Vs Wade and go after Shelly by pointing out the hypocrisy of the mega donors of the Democratic party.
Not following you here - how do you liberate those tracts with covenants without affecting segregation - is it that these tracts are all black now and would be all white in the future so they are still segregated either way?
I don't think you could do it with Shelly alone since the land is already occupied. You would have to have the government eject all the current blacks, THEN (re)impose the covenants so that they wouldn't come back. They did this in Johannesburg in the '40s but I don't think it's in the cards for the US. That's just way, way beyond the Overton window of the possible, especially in cities in blue states
If you look at NE cities, this is already being done thru market forces without the government's help ("gentrification"). Beat up old houses in W. Phila (near Penn/Drexel) are sold for $60K (ejecting the black tenants), gut rehabbed and sold to Chinese investors (who fill them with Chinese grad student tenants) for $350K. I know it's happening because I've done it. You don't need covenants to get rid of blacks, you just price them out of the market.
It would be nice to be able to clear out every single ghetto black in Harlem all in one day - it would create billions of $ in real estate value, but it's not going to happen that way. It will happen anyway, but gradually. They didn't clear all the whites out of the cities in 1 day and the reverse process will take some time as well.Replies: @anonymous-antimarxist
Hi Steve: How can young people form families when wages for the average worker continue to decline or stagnate? Are young people in red states less educated than those in blue states? What is the role of educational attainment in voting patterns? Are less educated people more likely to vote republican regardless of where they live?
I've give you a place that I'm more familiar with the stats of as an example. Vermont is a blue state which has very high housing costs compared to the local wage base. It is right now bleeding young people and families of which we were one a few years ago. Here's the stats, with the end of the article talking about historical averages.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/money/2016/12/29/vermont-population-declining-out-migration-art-woolf/95886408/
The end of this article shows that Vermont mostly has stagnated since after the Civil War, which as my home stomping grounds, I can attest to. Very little new building and you can literally see it in the age of the housing, as it happens in waves. Some right around the civil war, a burst after WWII until the 1970's when the same environmental regs hit Vermont and shut down large track builds.
If Vermont had a better environment to build housing, it might kept up it's post WWII boom. As it is, it appears that the last (poor) person will need to shut off the lights.
Vermont should at this moment have much more of a population than it does. So too, I tend to think with California. At the very least, I suspect if you broke out those stats between whites and Mexicans, you'd discover negative or static growth in the white population, just as in Vermont.Replies: @Lurker, @DWB, @Marty T
Track or tract? Just checking in case ‘track’ is some terminology I’m unfamiliar with.
OT – Man who shot Congressman today was an anti-Trump Democrat. What is it about Democrats that creates a Climate of Hate (TM)? I’m sure we will be reading about this in the Wash Po, NY Times, etc. and it’s only a matter of time before they launch the USS Scalise, right?
Democrat supporters keep showing the severed head of Trump, Trump as Caesar getting stabbed, etc. They are “sophisticated” and explain that this is just humor or metaphor or satire or something, but apparently some of their followers are more literal minded. Who will rid Hillary of this troublesome Trump?
Speaking of London housing, I saw a CNN clip of interviews of resident at the high rise tower. There was only one white person interviewed and his surname was definitely non Anglo.
Heck I think the only person they interviewed with an Anglo surname was black.
Though government owned, management was subcontracted to a private mgmt co. - naturally they are looking to blame the private company. Government can do no wrong.
LOL – yes, thank you. I meant tract housing. My typos are really bad.
Yes, the causation goes like this:
Large number of high paying knowledge economy jobs => large number of BoBo whites
and also
Large number of high paying knowledge economy jobs => high housing prices
then, following that:
large number of BoBo whites => preference for Democrats
and also
large number of BoBo whites + high housing prices => small families
That’s how you get high housing prices, small families, and preference for Democrats all clustering together in general.
Entirely off topic, the Oliver Stone interviews of Vlad Putin are intriguing. Have watched the first two hours. Putin is impressive; Stone is not a “gotcha” journalist so there is little in the way of fire works. Putin speaks “off the cuff” quite well; I suspect he understands nuanced American English much better than he or his interpreter let on.
This has been an interesting couple of weeks for me for finding information about Russia.
Two Saturdays ago at a local church book sale I snared the two volume Kennan study of Russia’s decision to leave WWI and the American decision to Invade Russia in 1918.
http://press.princeton.edu/titles/4443.html
http://press.princeton.edu/titles/4442.html
a week later I found Anatoly Dobrynin’s autobiography. (For those who did not know he was the USSR’s ambassador to the USA from 1962-1986).
The learning never stops — neither does the disillusion.
Democrat supporters keep showing the severed head of Trump, Trump as Caesar getting stabbed, etc. They are "sophisticated" and explain that this is just humor or metaphor or satire or something, but apparently some of their followers are more literal minded. Who will rid Hillary of this troublesome Trump?Replies: @AM
The people who live on the margins mentally take things like that seriously, which is why there is a taboo in the first place. The leftists, ever optimistic that everyone is a white, liberal upper middle class person with all their marbles, push the boundaries until the completely predictable happens again.
Hi Steve: Is there any relationship between IQ, and if people are more likely to vote for a democrat or a republican?
Agreed, but as we know, a major problem is that the GOP is run by the kind of people who would rather hire cheap immigrants than expensive Americans to build houses.
http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Building-Boom-Worker-Bust-20000-Construction-Workers-Needed-in-DFW-428085303.htmlAlso, I assume it was for space reasons that you left out a major aspect of the strategy: you need not just a house, but a house in a neighborhood where parents can execute Sailer's One Point Plan for Preventing Racial Prejudice: Don't let your kids get beaten up [or impregnated] by underclass minorities
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/429693/affh-preview-obamas-hud-takes-over-dubuque-iowa
http://www.vdare.com/articles/preventing-kid-prejudice-the-sailer-one-point-plan
https://www.unz.com/isteve/bad-students-not-bad-schools/
In the cities of Texas, just to take a random example of a Sand State that has been flooded with vibrancy by the cheap labor-loving oligarchs of the Stupid Party, houses as such are cheap, but houses with Magic Dirt and "good schools" are actually pretty expensive, in price or commute time or both.
And the Eye of Soros works overtime to make sure that there's no guarantee that the Magic Dirt will stay that way:
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/news/2016/02/26/will-supreme-court-let-lawsuits-frighten-cities-into-accepting-affordable-housing
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20120122-sunnyvale-hit-with-new-suit-over-low-income-apartments.ece
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-news/mckinney/headlines/20150727-with-new-complex-mckinney-hopes-to-remake-its-affordable-housing-landscape.ece
These links refer to suburbs (really, exurbs) for married white Republicans who can't afford to live in bourgeois-bohemian enclaves or to pay for 12 years of private school. They move there, and put up with hour-long commutes, specifically to avoid the vibrancy that already encompasses the entire inner ring of suburbs in soon-to-be purple-state Texas.Replies: @Autochthon, @hhsiii
It’s amazing how relentless the assault is on any last enclave or place of refuge if you aren’t rich as Croesus.
Interesting that you link to that old Steve article mentioning the implicit association test. I have my doubts about it too, but like Steve I took the test twice and apparently am slightly biased in favor of blacks. Unlike Steve I didn’t go to parochial school at first. I was bused in the late ’70s. Not exactly the mean streets (Montclair, NJ), but I got into fights, nose bloodied, spat on, choked, pushed into a locker, etc. That was about the worst of it.
So what did I hear the other day on NPR (I know, can’t help it, and a course in iSteve noticing really makes it a painful experience), but a piece on police shootings of Af-Ams (only 25% of the total, which doesn’t seem high to me, other than there are way too many shootings in general) being more prevalent in areas that score high in implicit bias. So the suggestion was something must be done about that. Ugh.
Also in that article, Steve mentioned that his kid would mention that a schoolmate was brown (not black as an adult would say), and that he was pink, and hispanic kids brown pink. Just thus. My daughter said the same things. Kids are great noticers.
So she goes to a decent public primary school in our NYC neighborhood. Now all the rage is, trumpeted on NPR and the NYT, because a UCLA shows NYC public schools to be among the most “segregated” they want to mix up the kids more to achieve balance. Which of course drives some whites from the public school system or the city altogether. As Steve has said, only so many magic whites to go around. In Astoria, which has been turning hipster for 20 years, the god public school Greek kids went to now has to take kids from the Queensbridge projects. The young hipsters don’t mind. They don’t have kids yet.
And as my kids get older decent middle school and high school get harder to find unless you get into Stuyvesant etc, we may need to move to the ‘burbs. My wife thinks more Lily-white Glen Ridge (she’s Latvian, so she doesn’t care much about political correctness; she says they had poor, violent kids where she grew up too, but they were just white people like everyone else) than Montclair, next door, but there’s a bidding war again on every house. Gee, thanks Fed for reinflating the housing bubble.
And of course they will be affirmatively furthering fair housing there, too (not under Trump, but whenever the next Dem is in power, Kamala Harris, whoever). We are a little under the $200k line that is supposedly meanie upper middle class these days (and in a raise or 2 we’ll be there), but that barely scrapes by with 3 kids in this area.
OK, back to my NPR listening, then there was a piece on Marketplace about Pennsylvania mushroom farms needing more immigrant labor. Geeze, you already charge like $4 for 4 oz of plain whites in my ‘hood, I’ll pay a quarter more if you pay an old quaker a decent wage to pick my ‘shrooms, mister mushroom magnate. or how about some inner city black kids? Get’em off the street and into moist, dark, cool mushroom growing rooms.
Seriously, the assault is every day, and on every side. It’s race, gender, immigrants, if it ain’t the giant nothingburger of russian influence and Jim Comey’s career. You’d think Trump hoping for a little investigatorial discretion (as if that’s the most important use of FBI resources imaginable) was the biggest shock since Louis Renault found out gambling was going on at Rick’s Place.
So every night I’m cooking dinner, with NPR on, and argue back with the unresponding radio, and my wife says why do you listen. Because it is all so obvious. And insidious. And I’m supposed to feel guilty for all this? My white, cishet privilege, the great crime that lies behind all this vast power? Like Ralph Kramden would say, hardeeharhar.
Pardon the rant. If I saw this word salad it’d be TL;DR.
“Trump won the 22 states with the cheapest homes, and 26 of the 27 least costly states”
There are pockets of exceptions. You can buy a 5 bedroom, 1 bath,1,870 sqft home for $70,000 in the Austin Chicago neighborhood. There are many, many more examples like this.
In this neighborhood of course Trump was probably outvoted 100 to 1. An enigma to be sure.The progressives are hard at work trying to explain this anomaly in the force field.
Heck I think the only person they interviewed with an Anglo surname was black.Replies: @Jack D, @LondonBob
The building was public housing (projects or “council flats” as they call them in the UK) even though it is located on some of the most expensive real estate in London (Kensington).
Though government owned, management was subcontracted to a private mgmt co. – naturally they are looking to blame the private company. Government can do no wrong.
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today's 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can't buy property.Replies: @anon, @Jack D, @Anonymous, @Cloudbuster, @The preferred nomenclature is..., @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman
Your suggestions make perfect sense, which is why they will never see the light of day.
It hasn’t worked that way at all in real life. The jobs that you think would lend themselves best to telecommuting attract 20 somethings that all want to live in Brooklyn or SF surrounded by their fellow hipsters.
If there was any labor cost advantage, it would be harvested by the employers, not the employees anyway.
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today's 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can't buy property.Replies: @anon, @Jack D, @Anonymous, @Cloudbuster, @The preferred nomenclature is..., @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman
Yes, these are all great ideas.
Steve,
You should spend more time exploring the Red State “Affordability” vs Blue State “Amenity” world views.
Married middle/working class folks with kids don’t care much about modern art galleries, night clubs, hipster restaurants, trendy boutiques etc… not to mention private beaches.
This reminds me of the Hal Clifford argument on how the mega corporate resorts were killing the average Ski town.
The mega corporations are all focused on adding as many amenities to the ski resort as possible to cater to a strictly upper class clientele. Namely lots of high speed quad lifts, expensive restaurants, exclusive night spots, trendy stores etc…. All of this obsession with amenities completely prices out the dying middle and working classes.
Now who would be against high speed quad lifts???
Now if you are very fit and have a very efficient skiing technique, modern equipment and are skiing primarily alone or with similarly able bodied mostly men there is no problem.
But most folks are only able to ski a limited number of vertical feet in a day. What the resort corporations love about high speed quads is that most folks, especially upper class women are done skiing after 3-4 hours and will spend the rest of the afternoon shopping.
Its all about maximizing the potential profits of the other AMENITIES.
Your typical middle/working class fit male skier is out there from first chair to last chair trying to milk every vertical foot out of his lift ticket for the 3-6 days a year he can afford to ski out west.
Therefore ski patrols have to be on constant look out for fatigued skiers who are at the greatest risk for injury.
For lots of folks the romance of skiing was in part being able to spend a long chair left sitting on a double chair in beautiful surroundings with somebody you care about. For families being able to spend all day skiing with ones children is the issue.
Sometimes you're better off dead
There's gun in your hand and it's pointing at your head
You think you're mad, too unstable
Kicking in chairs and knocking down tables
In a restaurant in a West End town
Call the police, there's a madman around
Running down underground to a dive bar
In a West End town
https://youtu.be/p3j2NYZ8FKs
You've got a heart of glass or a heart of stone
Just you wait 'til I get you home
We've got no future, we've got no past
Here today, built to last
In every city, in every nation
From Lake Geneva to the Finland station*
(How far have you been?)
(* @ 3:04 the camera passes South Africa House showing a human geography of protestors in the Non-Stop Picket,a thousand days long anti-apartheid protest that was organized by City Group - an organization that, conveniently enough, mimics moniker of their cosmopoliethnocentric sponsors**. All Sailerites know how well that one ended... )
** In addition to U.S. money managers, Citigroup largest shareholders include Abu Dhabi, Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, and Singapore.Replies: @Charles Pewitt
TO THE FINLAND STATION to AFFORDABLE FAMILY FORMATION is a long way home.
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today's 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can't buy property.Replies: @anon, @Jack D, @Anonymous, @Cloudbuster, @The preferred nomenclature is..., @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra.
As a “slum lord” I ask, what’s wrong with me? I provide and maintain a valuable product for people who want and need it. The people I rent to need what I provide. They wouldn’t be homeowners “if only Cloudbuster hand’t bought all the property.” They’re people who can’t afford and can’t handle (or don’t want — wish I had more of those) the responsibility of homeownership. The work to maintain my rental houses is never-ending and exhausting, and I provide work to many working class men — painters, plumbers, roofers, drywall-hangers, handymen, electricians, etc.
If you impose draconian costs like that on my business, I’ll do everything in my power to avoid those taxes — shell corporations for each house, etc.
This idea of confiscatory taxation on people who are actually productive really burns me.
I'm sure some slumlords will survive even if they have to pay a 1% property tax. This may well happen in the worst neighborhoods, where the residents are simply incapable of (and not interested in) being owners. In neighborhoods above the very bottom, however, you'd expect to see the homeownership rate go up as prices come down.Replies: @AM, @Cloudbuster
I looked up the property value - just a little over 1 Million. I was floored. This kind of property would sell for at least 15 Million on Long Island.
The twist to the story is despite being Southern old money, the bride and her family are all die hard liberals.Replies: @AM, @Verymuchalive
Southern old money ? You mean descendants of the original Carpetbaggers ! From personal experience, I know that there’s lots of them!
Off-topic,
In Defense of Cultural Appropriation
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/14/opinion/in-defense-of-cultural-appropriation.html?_r=0
I telecommuted as my regular means of working fifteen years ago – and I loved it. But it was clear to me that telecommuting was unlikely to be a major factor in most work situations.
I spent a lot of my career as a manager. I was the first to get there in the morning and the last to leave at night. I did that because I was trying to inspire my staff with a spirit of hard work. And it worked in most cases. Even people who generally like their work (in my case coders) work more steadily and consistently if they are observed.
Then there are the managers. Anyone who has been in a managerial or executive position knows that a great deal of store is placed on the location of your office. People fight to work near the nexus of power. Usually this means the offices near the bosses office. Any ambitious corporate bureaucrat will fear working too far from the executive suite. If you work at home you will not be seen. You are not going to advance up the ladder if no one sees you.
Yep, you can even deduct mortgage interest on a -vacation- home. Mortgage interest is not deductible in Canada and they have about the same percentage of home owners as we do.
I wonder how Spotted Toad’s house price/vote analysis would scale to the county level?
From Taki:
What about Prop 13 (and descendants)? It would be interesting to do an analysis of house price trajectory taking into account tax measures like that (e.g. Measure 5 in OR, others?).
Here is some decennial house price by state data (would be much more useful if it had 2010 data): https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.html
George Hawley looked into whether my state-level analysis would hold up at the county level for the 2000 election and it did:
Home affordability, female marriage rates and vote choice in the 2000 US presidential election
Evidence from US counties
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354068810389641Replies: @res
I got blocked from Pinterest for posting some goofy pro-Trump memes I made during the election campaign. But I also got blocked by AmRen for posting smarty-pants comments about their glorious pan-pagan white man philosophy. Bummer.
To be clear, I expect these decisions are not taken by directly Chick-fil-ets's people, I've no doubt; the corny software the subscribe to has some barmy list of ostensibly evil sites, and that's that. Nevertheless, these platforms enable the subscriber to make exceptions, and Chick-fil-et have not, so bugger 'em.
In the age of ubiquitous telecommunications, these types of battles will become more and more important; make no mistake: these kinds of shenanigans are the book-burnings and witch-hunts of the modern era, as antagonistic to independent thought as the Papists were to Luther's writings or the Mohammedans are to...well...civilisation itself.Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
The problem with getting alleged conservatives in power to see these things, is twofold. One issue is the American mythos means the vast majority of Americans simply do not want to believe that this country could regress in any way. They have faith in America. America is if not God at least the Divine Church of God.
The other issue is that many Republicans know these things and support them. Old money/old connections WASP Elites do not want anything like true social and power mobility. They want a replication of the British class system that works for them as Americans. They want their power made virtually permanent. And t do that, they must limit the opportunities of non-elite whites.
It should go without saying that Jews agree 100% with that WASP Elite way of seeing the world and the mass of whites - they are threats to neutralize so the 'right' people can wield power forever.Replies: @Autochthon, @Desiderius, @Anonymous
“Liberalism works by making more and more whites something no better off than serfs, while it (liberalism) rants about making everything and everybody equal. Equal as serfs.”
You’re conflating Liberalism with Leftism/Globalism. Liberalism consistently advocated for higher living standards for working class people, while Leftism/Globalism support policies that bring the living standards in the West at parity with those of developing nations. Phyllis Schlafly called this process “leveling”, and these polices are imposed through sustainable development/climate change treaties and policies. The Kyoto Accords are an example of how this is done.
We have to play with the terms as they lie. "Liberal" and "liberalism" have been entirely co-opted by the globalist left. Complain all you want that they are the farthest thing from classical liberalism. You're right, but nobody except an academic or political junkie will understand what you mean.
Seattle should be an interesting test case, it's a coastal city that is investing heavily in pro-growth, pro-density policies. Developers are knocking down two story buildings and putting up towers all over the place.Replies: @DWB
The trouble with this is that I suspect many American families do not want to have and raise children in giant, glass habitrails.
Here in the San Francisco Bay area, the argument about housing costs arises virtually every day. One solution often suggested is for places to build “up,” and the giant cities of Asia are often mentioned.
We are going to find out, one way or the other, aren’t we?
From Taki:What about Prop 13 (and descendants)? It would be interesting to do an analysis of house price trajectory taking into account tax measures like that (e.g. Measure 5 in OR, others?).
Here is some decennial house price by state data (would be much more useful if it had 2010 data): https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.htmlReplies: @Benjamin I. Espen, @Steve Sailer
Pretty well, as Random C. Analysis demonstrated to ST on Twitter.
In my experience, it holds at even more micro levels, such as voting precinct, which can be seen in this article about voting patterns in my home town. The unincorporated areas outside of the city limits are much cheaper, and much more Republican than the city itself, with its amenities.
I've give you a place that I'm more familiar with the stats of as an example. Vermont is a blue state which has very high housing costs compared to the local wage base. It is right now bleeding young people and families of which we were one a few years ago. Here's the stats, with the end of the article talking about historical averages.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/money/2016/12/29/vermont-population-declining-out-migration-art-woolf/95886408/
The end of this article shows that Vermont mostly has stagnated since after the Civil War, which as my home stomping grounds, I can attest to. Very little new building and you can literally see it in the age of the housing, as it happens in waves. Some right around the civil war, a burst after WWII until the 1970's when the same environmental regs hit Vermont and shut down large track builds.
If Vermont had a better environment to build housing, it might kept up it's post WWII boom. As it is, it appears that the last (poor) person will need to shut off the lights.
Vermont should at this moment have much more of a population than it does. So too, I tend to think with California. At the very least, I suspect if you broke out those stats between whites and Mexicans, you'd discover negative or static growth in the white population, just as in Vermont.Replies: @Lurker, @DWB, @Marty T
You’re right.
California in 1980 had a total population of approximately 23 million people; of these, about 17.5 million were white.
In the most recent census (2010), the population was 37 million. of which 15 million or so were non-hispanic whites.
Now, some of the changes are due to the way census data are collected, but what is happening in California is what Steve likes to call “electing a new people.”
Sources: https://www.census.gov/prod/www/decennial.html#y1980popv1ca
I've give you a place that I'm more familiar with the stats of as an example. Vermont is a blue state which has very high housing costs compared to the local wage base. It is right now bleeding young people and families of which we were one a few years ago. Here's the stats, with the end of the article talking about historical averages.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/money/2016/12/29/vermont-population-declining-out-migration-art-woolf/95886408/
The end of this article shows that Vermont mostly has stagnated since after the Civil War, which as my home stomping grounds, I can attest to. Very little new building and you can literally see it in the age of the housing, as it happens in waves. Some right around the civil war, a burst after WWII until the 1970's when the same environmental regs hit Vermont and shut down large track builds.
If Vermont had a better environment to build housing, it might kept up it's post WWII boom. As it is, it appears that the last (poor) person will need to shut off the lights.
Vermont should at this moment have much more of a population than it does. So too, I tend to think with California. At the very least, I suspect if you broke out those stats between whites and Mexicans, you'd discover negative or static growth in the white population, just as in Vermont.Replies: @Lurker, @DWB, @Marty T
In the case of Vermont, isnt the appeal the rural natural beauty? I guess that helps make it a blue state, but it’s a great place to visit.
It's now blue thanks to a almost one for one replacement of middle class natives with urbanites with jobs/incomes/pension from large metro areas.
In fairness, the native stock tended to be libertarian type conservatives. However, the socialism thing is an overlay of the newest arrivals, who tend to treat Vermont (whose population is not larger than a mid-size city) as their commune. I didn't pay close attention to single payer debacle, but it must have been quite angsty there when it failed. Lots of people who tend to not be realistic about money there now.
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today's 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can't buy property.Replies: @anon, @Jack D, @Anonymous, @Cloudbuster, @The preferred nomenclature is..., @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman
Excellent ideas. I would opt for the $2M exemption on primary and $500K on secondary and none on third or more. If foreign owned I would double the tax rate.
Off Topic But Awesome
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1144510/woman-made-up-sex-attack-claims-against-15-men-and-sent-innocent-man-to-jail-for-7-years/
Can you imagine?
The causation is pretty clear, if you were to cross-reference this analysis with one examining the voting patterns based on the level of income disparity in a state, i.e. enclave rich libs and poor vibrants voting together, but not actually living close together.
http://www.cbsnews.com/media/9-u-s-states-with-the-highest-income-inequality/10/
There are pockets of exceptions. You can buy a 5 bedroom, 1 bath,1,870 sqft home for $70,000 in the Austin Chicago neighborhood. There are many, many more examples like this.
In this neighborhood of course Trump was probably outvoted 100 to 1. An enigma to be sure.The progressives are hard at work trying to explain this anomaly in the force field.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @prole
“You can buy a 5 bedroom, 1 bath,1,870 sqft home for $70,000 in the Austin Chicago neighborhood.”
Previously owned by my in-laws.
The house my dad grew up in two miles away in Oak Park is probably worth 10x that.
There are pockets of exceptions. You can buy a 5 bedroom, 1 bath,1,870 sqft home for $70,000 in the Austin Chicago neighborhood. There are many, many more examples like this.
In this neighborhood of course Trump was probably outvoted 100 to 1. An enigma to be sure.The progressives are hard at work trying to explain this anomaly in the force field.Replies: @Steve Sailer, @prole
Demographic causes the whites to flee some affordable neighborhoods..
As a "slum lord" I ask, what's wrong with me? I provide and maintain a valuable product for people who want and need it. The people I rent to need what I provide. They wouldn't be homeowners "if only Cloudbuster hand't bought all the property." They're people who can't afford and can't handle (or don't want -- wish I had more of those) the responsibility of homeownership. The work to maintain my rental houses is never-ending and exhausting, and I provide work to many working class men -- painters, plumbers, roofers, drywall-hangers, handymen, electricians, etc.
If you impose draconian costs like that on my business, I'll do everything in my power to avoid those taxes -- shell corporations for each house, etc.
This idea of confiscatory taxation on people who are actually productive really burns me.Replies: @HI
Slumlords do provide useful services. They also increase the value of housing, thus making it harder for blue-collar and middle class families to buy. This is what the discussion is about, right?
I’m sure some slumlords will survive even if they have to pay a 1% property tax. This may well happen in the worst neighborhoods, where the residents are simply incapable of (and not interested in) being owners. In neighborhoods above the very bottom, however, you’d expect to see the homeownership rate go up as prices come down.
The problem is that what people don't see, is what they don't see. How many large scale developments were proposed and shot down? How much housing doesn't exist, thanks to overbearing regulation.
I live in place that is okay with development. It's lightly regulated. The vast majority of the housing stock looks great and if you're willing to live in particular exurbs, you can have a nice neighborhood for cheap.
In Vermont, which has no shortage of land, it's become impossible to build housing in scale. Housing prices, relative to local wages are insane. The housing stock is now in poor condition because a lot of money is spent simply to purchase and there's very little left over to improve things. And it's all artificial to extent because of "environmental" regs in place in the 1970's.
If you want cheap houses, you have to let builders build, basically.
Taxes should be as they were originally conceived in the Constitution: applied equally to all, not targeted as punitive measures against certain demographics or industries, and kept to the minimum necessary to fund necessary, defined government functions.
Regarding your actual post, what I contend with daily is that it is actually the school systems in my area that work to drive up property values.
As a landlord, instead of a "flipper" we go to court frequently to challenge our property valuations, requesting they be lower, so our property tax assessments will be lower, because our properties have value to us from long-term use, not short-term valuations. We go armed with voluminous data showing the actual values in our area. Inevitably, we are up against lawyers for the school district. They are paid by the district to challenge any request to reduce property valuations, because that reduces the school district's revenues from property taxes.
Flippers, as I mention above, also work more than landlords to drive up property valuations, because they're interested in a short-term profit on a property. We have to compete with flippers all the time to purchase additional properties in the area. They're frequently larger, out-of-state corporations with much deeper pockets than us. They could afford a 1% federal property tax better than I could, both because of their deeper pockets and because they plan to hold on to the property for a much shorter time period, and wager on inflated property valuations. The tax, as all such taxes do, hit the small businessman the hardest.Replies: @Opinionator
Telecommuting happens but it is called outsourcing and the people live in India and are paid Indian wages.
Heck I think the only person they interviewed with an Anglo surname was black.Replies: @Jack D, @LondonBob
Know that area well, huge Somalian population with the usual MENA and Sub Saharans thrown in. All cheek by jowl with some of the priciest real estate in the world.
Looks at the facts and start feeling those chickens coming home to roostReplies: @fish
Shaft
Who’s the black private dick
that’s a sex machine to all the chicks?
(Shaft!)
You’re damn right
Who is the man
that would risk his neck for his brother man?
(Shaft!)
Can ya dig it?
Who’s the cat that won’t cop out
when there’s danger all about
(Shaft!)
Right on
You see this cat Shaft is a bad mother–
(Shut your mouth)
But I’m talkin’ about Shaft
(Then we can dig it)
He’s a complicated man
but no one understands him but his woman
(John Shaft)
– Leonard Pitts
Steve Sailer is a hypocrite of gargantuan proportions. On the one hand, he opposes immigration on the grounds that immigrants are making America crowded, and that America’s historically high PPP per capita is due to the U.S not being crowded, with cheap land. On the other hand, he writes endless articles on “affordable family formation”, on how to increase the number of families and kids. In other words, increasing the number of people. This of course, translates into a higher demographic density which is exactly what Sailer is so preocupied in preventing by arguing for limited immigration. In other words: a hypocrite.
The reality is that Sailer is not really concerned with America’s cost of living so much as he believes that immigrants, the majority of which are Latinos, are biologically inferior to the current American white stock. It is pure racism, plain and simple. I don’t like the word racism because it is clieched at this point, but truly there is no other way of defining Steve Sailer.
Not a secret if you’ve been reading Steve Sailer
https://archive.fo/8L9SeReplies: @Thea
paul Ryan said the greatest political violence since the civil war is a show of American unity.
No, congressman this is a show of how divided we are.
How many Bernie fans like Maddow? I smell Clinton.
And why use logarithms in the first place for an analysis like this? Why not just use plain old median home prices as the independant variable?
Also, to nit pick, his dependant axis is mislabeled. The numbers are not, as claimed, the percent of the vote received by Trump, they are, I presume, the percent divided by 100.Replies: @Alan D
The strange-looking values for the logarithms are because Spotted Toad has used logarithms to the base e (= 2.71828…), i.e. “natural logarithms”) rather than logarithms to the base 10, i.e. “common logarithms”. If so, the house prices range from about $100,000 to about $440,000.
I think that most people would not know about natural logarithms and even if they did, there would be no reason to use them on the horizontal axis. Common logarithms are the ones that most people know about – that is why they are called “common logarithms” or just “logarithms”.
Sometimes using a logarithmic scale, instead of the usual linear one, is appropriate, but I can’t see any reason for doing so in this case. However, even if a logarithmic scale is used, it should be labelled with the obvious units, meaning dollars in this case. I mean, would you tell anyone that the natural logarithm of your house’s price was 12.43, instead of saying it was worth $250,000?
I agree that the vertical axis is mislabelled, and that the numbers need to be multiplied by 100 to give percentages.
I think that the graph gives very useful information, in spite of how badly it has been labelled.
Agree with your comments about labels. I imagine Toad used his familiar stats package with the defaults.Replies: @res
To live in Vermont? Sure. But you can’t eat the view.
It’s now blue thanks to a almost one for one replacement of middle class natives with urbanites with jobs/incomes/pension from large metro areas.
In fairness, the native stock tended to be libertarian type conservatives. However, the socialism thing is an overlay of the newest arrivals, who tend to treat Vermont (whose population is not larger than a mid-size city) as their commune. I didn’t pay close attention to single payer debacle, but it must have been quite angsty there when it failed. Lots of people who tend to not be realistic about money there now.
The reality is that Sailer is not really concerned with America's cost of living so much as he believes that immigrants, the majority of which are Latinos, are biologically inferior to the current American white stock. It is pure racism, plain and simple. I don't like the word racism because it is clieched at this point, but truly there is no other way of defining Steve Sailer.Replies: @AM, @Jack D
grin There are lots of ways of defining Steve Sailer but that’s probably best left to himself.
At any rate, the race card is maxed out. You point it out, but you can’t resist it, in part because it’s been so wildly successful in shutting down discussions of who we are and where we want to be in 50-100 years.
It is possible to want to shut down the borders to keep America American, without making judgements on any other race. If we let in enough Mexicans, it’s going to be more Mexico than the United States. It would be much better to make Japan’s choice, which is to simply deal with the shrinking population, rather than artificially pump up numbers with people who have foriegn culture. It’s an obvious concept that requires a great deal of propagandizing, narcissism, and first world guilt to make into some sort of ginormous moral dilemma.
Different people are different…without the judgements, which so often come from leftists pretending that they are tolerant or non-judgmental or something. In the end, you’re the one who insisted that Hispanics were inferior, for whatever reason, not this article.
http://i.imgur.com/mVwKpDt.jpgReplies: @Autochthon
Chik-fil-et (of all places?) blocks connections via their 802.11 network to VDare.com; a message appears decreeing VDare is a contains “hate” (whatever that means). I was sad to discover it a few months ago, because I’ll miss Chick-fil-et.
To be clear, I expect these decisions are not taken by directly Chick-fil-ets’s people, I’ve no doubt; the corny software the subscribe to has some barmy list of ostensibly evil sites, and that’s that. Nevertheless, these platforms enable the subscriber to make exceptions, and Chick-fil-et have not, so bugger ’em.
In the age of ubiquitous telecommunications, these types of battles will become more and more important; make no mistake: these kinds of shenanigans are the book-burnings and witch-hunts of the modern era, as antagonistic to independent thought as the Papists were to Luther’s writings or the Mohammedans are to…well…civilisation itself.
I'm sure some slumlords will survive even if they have to pay a 1% property tax. This may well happen in the worst neighborhoods, where the residents are simply incapable of (and not interested in) being owners. In neighborhoods above the very bottom, however, you'd expect to see the homeownership rate go up as prices come down.Replies: @AM, @Cloudbuster
Housing prices are rarely attached to property taxes. It has impact, yes, but it’s almost always traced back to local zoning regs, even in places with clear geography issues.
The problem is that what people don’t see, is what they don’t see. How many large scale developments were proposed and shot down? How much housing doesn’t exist, thanks to overbearing regulation.
I live in place that is okay with development. It’s lightly regulated. The vast majority of the housing stock looks great and if you’re willing to live in particular exurbs, you can have a nice neighborhood for cheap.
In Vermont, which has no shortage of land, it’s become impossible to build housing in scale. Housing prices, relative to local wages are insane. The housing stock is now in poor condition because a lot of money is spent simply to purchase and there’s very little left over to improve things. And it’s all artificial to extent because of “environmental” regs in place in the 1970’s.
If you want cheap houses, you have to let builders build, basically.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelley_v._Kraemer
As Paul Kersey at SPBDL has documented for almost a decade the Shelly decision has both devastated and depopulated vast sections of urban and inner suburban real estate. There are vast tracks of affordable land in Blue/Purple states to be had if Shelly was reversed with only modest effect on actual rates of segregation.
Non millionaire environmentalist should love the idea that billions of barrels of oil and tons of GHGs would not have to be burned and emitted simply in order for middle and working to bankrupt themselves attempting to seek out their own rights of freedom of association.
A better meme for the "Environmentalism" of the mega rich like Reiner and Geffen would after all be "Kosher Covenants". If the Stupid Party every regained its balls it would forget about trying to reverse Roe Vs Wade and go after Shelly by pointing out the hypocrisy of the mega donors of the Democratic party.Replies: @Jack D
Tracts not tracks.
Not following you here – how do you liberate those tracts with covenants without affecting segregation – is it that these tracts are all black now and would be all white in the future so they are still segregated either way?
I don’t think you could do it with Shelly alone since the land is already occupied. You would have to have the government eject all the current blacks, THEN (re)impose the covenants so that they wouldn’t come back. They did this in Johannesburg in the ’40s but I don’t think it’s in the cards for the US. That’s just way, way beyond the Overton window of the possible, especially in cities in blue states
If you look at NE cities, this is already being done thru market forces without the government’s help (“gentrification”). Beat up old houses in W. Phila (near Penn/Drexel) are sold for $60K (ejecting the black tenants), gut rehabbed and sold to Chinese investors (who fill them with Chinese grad student tenants) for $350K. I know it’s happening because I’ve done it. You don’t need covenants to get rid of blacks, you just price them out of the market.
It would be nice to be able to clear out every single ghetto black in Harlem all in one day – it would create billions of $ in real estate value, but it’s not going to happen that way. It will happen anyway, but gradually. They didn’t clear all the whites out of the cities in 1 day and the reverse process will take some time as well.
There are vast sections of major cities that essentially depopulated, Gary In, East St Louis IL, Chicago's West Side, St Louis(in the very neighborhood surrounding where the "Shelly" house is located, not to mention much of Detroit/Wayne county. Indianapolis alone has 20,000 abandoned homes and properties and every year the city keeps bulldozing more homes creating vacate lots.
Over priced gentrification for gays, childless SWPLs and Chinese speculators does not help white folks wanting families much.
Eject blacks???? How about saying you can not live here if you have a criminal record and on the dole. How about we stop helping blacks to spread their blight from one neighborhood to another all on the taxpayer dime.
Ending the disastrous Shelly decision and bringing back true freedom of association is the key to affordable family formation.
The only thing stopping the Overton window from moving back towards sanity are Boomer Cuck mindsets like your own.
Here in the San Francisco Bay area, the argument about housing costs arises virtually every day. One solution often suggested is for places to build "up," and the giant cities of Asia are often mentioned.
We are going to find out, one way or the other, aren't we?Replies: @Autochthon
Just so. Just this morning people on the bus were complaining to each other about how “crowded” everything has become and chucking (yes, chuckling) about how it is inevitably going to continue to worsen, like this stuff were as ineluctable as the weather or the tides. Not once in their vapid exchange were the words “immigration” or “overpopulation” mentioned, and both were American women in their thirties, unwed and childless, naturally; because everyone knows the cause of overpopulation anyway is Europeans who dare to replace themselves – it’s nothing to do with hordes of savages breeding with abandon and flooding civilised nations with their excessive spawn.
Were I have not read 1 % of what I've read on the immigration subject (in > 1 decade) perhaps I would not know the simple fact that America's population is increasing rapidly solely due to immigration.
A lot of people don't read or care to read about basically anything that doesn't affect them personally and right away, or football, of course.Replies: @Autochthon
The reality is that Sailer is not really concerned with America's cost of living so much as he believes that immigrants, the majority of which are Latinos, are biologically inferior to the current American white stock. It is pure racism, plain and simple. I don't like the word racism because it is clieched at this point, but truly there is no other way of defining Steve Sailer.Replies: @AM, @Jack D
So if you want your country to be prosperous and for your existing citizens and their children to be fruitful and multiply, that’s racist, but if you want the entire world to have the right to flee from their current shitholes and make America more like the places that they left, that’s not racist. Maybe that’s appealing to you because you imagine (it’s implied in your remarks) that the future arrivals will be Latinos like you and that’s fine with you, but what if the future arrivals aren’t Latinos at all? Say they are Africans from deepest darkest villages in the sub-Sahara or Muslims with 4 chadored wives whose kids like to blow stuff up. This is the mistake that a lot of Jews make – they think, “once we were refugees with funny clothes so I have to be sympathetic to refugees with funny clothes.” Are you sure that opening the gates to everyone is really such a good idea after all?
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today's 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can't buy property.Replies: @anon, @Jack D, @Anonymous, @Cloudbuster, @The preferred nomenclature is..., @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman
Michael Scott’s view on this idea:
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today's 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can't buy property.Replies: @anon, @Jack D, @Anonymous, @Cloudbuster, @The preferred nomenclature is..., @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman
OK, seriously now, I know this is not a libertarian site, but damn, I can’t believe what I’m reading from intelligent people.
If you’ve lived 30 years or so by now in this country (probably any other too) you’ve got to have seen that taxes: only go up in rates, go down in coverage levels, and NEVER! GO! AWAY!
Does nobody on here know that the 16th Amendment of > 100 years back to impose and income tax had no maximum rate because people figured it would never apply to them, the little guys.? They were going to set a 7% max in there, but the politicians were all, ” pshaww, this is just silly, it’ll never apply to you, and no way will it get above a couple of %; not worth even debating.” (Most of them meant it honestly, I’m sure).
Income tax, sales tax, local/city property tax, business licenses. Is that not enough?
I know, I know, these are ideas to set things right, is that it? Just tweek it like this to make people act right. These numbers will do what we need. I see the numbers you wrote as suggestions. How long do you think they will hold?
Oh, what if it turns out, that after a big bout of inflation, your house ends up smack dab in the target range of this Federal Property tax, and so does your whole block and mine.
THIS! STUFF! NEVER! GOES! AWAY!
I think maybe Michael Scott did say it better: “NO! GOD! NO!”
"That government is best which governs least." — Some dead white male, so what did he know, anyhow...
There are other options.
Simpson-Bowles recommended capping the mortgage deduction at 500k, down from today's 1.1M. This would hit blue areas.
Another option is to introduce a federal property tax, with a large exemption for primary residences and possibly even the second home. Say a 1% federal property tax, with a 2M (or 1M) exemption for a primary residence, and a 1M (or 500k) exemption for a second home. This would also allow you to tax Chinese investors, hedge funds, and slum lords (like Jared Kushner) extra. You could make the tax 2% for foreign owners, or at least owners from places where Americans can't buy property.Replies: @anon, @Jack D, @Anonymous, @Cloudbuster, @The preferred nomenclature is..., @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman
BTW, it’s not like I don’t agree with your goals. The means suck though.
A law prohibiting any non-citizen from owning property in the US seems a fine idea, especially farm land and manufacturing plants, but it’d be simpler to stipulate that a deed would be null and void (hell, I’m no lawyer) were the holder not a US citizen.
This will not happen easily, as we know that there are plenty who are glad to sell the country out, including Warren Buffet’s selling of rental property directly to foreigners. Hey, millennial renter, meet your new landlord “Yu Pye Daon”.
To be clear, I expect these decisions are not taken by directly Chick-fil-ets's people, I've no doubt; the corny software the subscribe to has some barmy list of ostensibly evil sites, and that's that. Nevertheless, these platforms enable the subscriber to make exceptions, and Chick-fil-et have not, so bugger 'em.
In the age of ubiquitous telecommunications, these types of battles will become more and more important; make no mistake: these kinds of shenanigans are the book-burnings and witch-hunts of the modern era, as antagonistic to independent thought as the Papists were to Luther's writings or the Mohammedans are to...well...civilisation itself.Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
I would still let them know in some way, Autochthon. They seem like a good enough company to where the owner may someday get word. I would miss the spicy chicken sandwich #2, but you’ve gotta stand for something. Nice job.
Not following you here - how do you liberate those tracts with covenants without affecting segregation - is it that these tracts are all black now and would be all white in the future so they are still segregated either way?
I don't think you could do it with Shelly alone since the land is already occupied. You would have to have the government eject all the current blacks, THEN (re)impose the covenants so that they wouldn't come back. They did this in Johannesburg in the '40s but I don't think it's in the cards for the US. That's just way, way beyond the Overton window of the possible, especially in cities in blue states
If you look at NE cities, this is already being done thru market forces without the government's help ("gentrification"). Beat up old houses in W. Phila (near Penn/Drexel) are sold for $60K (ejecting the black tenants), gut rehabbed and sold to Chinese investors (who fill them with Chinese grad student tenants) for $350K. I know it's happening because I've done it. You don't need covenants to get rid of blacks, you just price them out of the market.
It would be nice to be able to clear out every single ghetto black in Harlem all in one day - it would create billions of $ in real estate value, but it's not going to happen that way. It will happen anyway, but gradually. They didn't clear all the whites out of the cities in 1 day and the reverse process will take some time as well.Replies: @anonymous-antimarxist
Great lets reclaim our ghettos by selling overpriced gentrified properties to the Chinese. That really helps middle and working class primarily whites who want families.
There are vast sections of major cities that essentially depopulated, Gary In, East St Louis IL, Chicago’s West Side, St Louis(in the very neighborhood surrounding where the “Shelly” house is located, not to mention much of Detroit/Wayne county. Indianapolis alone has 20,000 abandoned homes and properties and every year the city keeps bulldozing more homes creating vacate lots.
Over priced gentrification for gays, childless SWPLs and Chinese speculators does not help white folks wanting families much.
Eject blacks???? How about saying you can not live here if you have a criminal record and on the dole. How about we stop helping blacks to spread their blight from one neighborhood to another all on the taxpayer dime.
Ending the disastrous Shelly decision and bringing back true freedom of association is the key to affordable family formation.
The only thing stopping the Overton window from moving back towards sanity are Boomer Cuck mindsets like your own.
Wouldn’t surprise me if, as the Latino population goes north of 30%, future US policy limits (!) unlimited immigration to natives of Latin America. Latinos aren’t known for welcoming non-white, non-Christian immigrants. They will presumably carve out an exclusive immigration niche for other Spanish-speaking natives of the Western Hemisphere. In other words, not too far from the current status quo.
I think that most people would not know about natural logarithms and even if they did, there would be no reason to use them on the horizontal axis. Common logarithms are the ones that most people know about - that is why they are called "common logarithms" or just "logarithms".
Sometimes using a logarithmic scale, instead of the usual linear one, is appropriate, but I can't see any reason for doing so in this case. However, even if a logarithmic scale is used, it should be labelled with the obvious units, meaning dollars in this case. I mean, would you tell anyone that the natural logarithm of your house's price was 12.43, instead of saying it was worth $250,000?
I agree that the vertical axis is mislabelled, and that the numbers need to be multiplied by 100 to give percentages.
I think that the graph gives very useful information, in spite of how badly it has been labelled.Replies: @anon, @1972 heartbreak kid
Price data is frequently plotted using a log scale. It makes sense to me.
Agree with your comments about labels. I imagine Toad used his familiar stats package with the defaults.
William Cleveland disagrees though. For anyone who cares, this has a pretty good discussion about labeling log axes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/naomirobbins/2012/01/25/how-should-i-label-log-scales-in-charts-and-graphs
If you've lived 30 years or so by now in this country (probably any other too) you've got to have seen that taxes: only go up in rates, go down in coverage levels, and NEVER! GO! AWAY!
Does nobody on here know that the 16th Amendment of > 100 years back to impose and income tax had no maximum rate because people figured it would never apply to them, the little guys.? They were going to set a 7% max in there, but the politicians were all, " pshaww, this is just silly, it'll never apply to you, and no way will it get above a couple of %; not worth even debating." (Most of them meant it honestly, I'm sure).
Income tax, sales tax, local/city property tax, business licenses. Is that not enough?
I know, I know, these are ideas to set things right, is that it? Just tweek it like this to make people act right. These numbers will do what we need. I see the numbers you wrote as suggestions. How long do you think they will hold?
Oh, what if it turns out, that after a big bout of inflation, your house ends up smack dab in the target range of this Federal Property tax, and so does your whole block and mine.
THIS! STUFF! NEVER! GOES! AWAY!
I think maybe Michael Scott did say it better: "NO! GOD! NO!"Replies: @Autochthon
All government – regulations, personnel, taxation; all of it – is a ratchet. (And most of it a racket.)
“That government is best which governs least.” — Some dead white male, so what did he know, anyhow…
Autochthon, it’s easy to assume that people know some “obvious” fact that you yourself have known about for many years and is a basic assumption under most articles on a familiar subject like this. I say this not in a lecturing way, as it’s just something that I’ve noticed in me.
Were I have not read 1 % of what I’ve read on the immigration subject (in > 1 decade) perhaps I would not know the simple fact that America’s population is increasing rapidly solely due to immigration.
A lot of people don’t read or care to read about basically anything that doesn’t affect them personally and right away, or football, of course.
I live in Mexifornia; your milage may vary.
From Taki:What about Prop 13 (and descendants)? It would be interesting to do an analysis of house price trajectory taking into account tax measures like that (e.g. Measure 5 in OR, others?).
Here is some decennial house price by state data (would be much more useful if it had 2010 data): https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.htmlReplies: @Benjamin I. Espen, @Steve Sailer
I wonder how Spotted Toad’s house price/vote analysis would scale to the county level?
George Hawley looked into whether my state-level analysis would hold up at the county level for the 2000 election and it did:
Home affordability, female marriage rates and vote choice in the 2000 US presidential election
Evidence from US counties
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354068810389641
I just downloaded his paper.
From pages 778-779 we see:His next paragraph is interesting. I don't know if this has been discussed here, but it seems topical:He actually did include black in his Table 2 Model V for Vote for Bush. The largest coefficient at -1.72 with a truly impressive p value based on a standard error of 0.04.
He used linear values for both home values and income. I wonder if changing them to logs would have mattered much.
I'm sure some slumlords will survive even if they have to pay a 1% property tax. This may well happen in the worst neighborhoods, where the residents are simply incapable of (and not interested in) being owners. In neighborhoods above the very bottom, however, you'd expect to see the homeownership rate go up as prices come down.Replies: @AM, @Cloudbuster
I revolt at the very idea of using taxes as a means of social control, which is what your tax is about. It’s another attempt at planning the economy, despite voluminous evidence that “experts” lack sufficient information to understand and plan a dynamic economy. Taxes that attempt to exert social control almost always end up distorting the market they target and creating unintended side effects (which the “experts” try to counter with more manipulations).
Taxes should be as they were originally conceived in the Constitution: applied equally to all, not targeted as punitive measures against certain demographics or industries, and kept to the minimum necessary to fund necessary, defined government functions.
Regarding your actual post, what I contend with daily is that it is actually the school systems in my area that work to drive up property values.
As a landlord, instead of a “flipper” we go to court frequently to challenge our property valuations, requesting they be lower, so our property tax assessments will be lower, because our properties have value to us from long-term use, not short-term valuations. We go armed with voluminous data showing the actual values in our area. Inevitably, we are up against lawyers for the school district. They are paid by the district to challenge any request to reduce property valuations, because that reduces the school district’s revenues from property taxes.
Flippers, as I mention above, also work more than landlords to drive up property valuations, because they’re interested in a short-term profit on a property. We have to compete with flippers all the time to purchase additional properties in the area. They’re frequently larger, out-of-state corporations with much deeper pockets than us. They could afford a 1% federal property tax better than I could, both because of their deeper pockets and because they plan to hold on to the property for a much shorter time period, and wager on inflated property valuations. The tax, as all such taxes do, hit the small businessman the hardest.
Is there a source you'd recommend for reading up on how to do this?
You're conflating Liberalism with Leftism/Globalism. Liberalism consistently advocated for higher living standards for working class people, while Leftism/Globalism support policies that bring the living standards in the West at parity with those of developing nations. Phyllis Schlafly called this process "leveling", and these polices are imposed through sustainable development/climate change treaties and policies. The Kyoto Accords are an example of how this is done.Replies: @Cloudbuster
You’re conflating Liberalism with Leftism/Globalism
We have to play with the terms as they lie. “Liberal” and “liberalism” have been entirely co-opted by the globalist left. Complain all you want that they are the farthest thing from classical liberalism. You’re right, but nobody except an academic or political junkie will understand what you mean.
Taxes should be as they were originally conceived in the Constitution: applied equally to all, not targeted as punitive measures against certain demographics or industries, and kept to the minimum necessary to fund necessary, defined government functions.
Regarding your actual post, what I contend with daily is that it is actually the school systems in my area that work to drive up property values.
As a landlord, instead of a "flipper" we go to court frequently to challenge our property valuations, requesting they be lower, so our property tax assessments will be lower, because our properties have value to us from long-term use, not short-term valuations. We go armed with voluminous data showing the actual values in our area. Inevitably, we are up against lawyers for the school district. They are paid by the district to challenge any request to reduce property valuations, because that reduces the school district's revenues from property taxes.
Flippers, as I mention above, also work more than landlords to drive up property valuations, because they're interested in a short-term profit on a property. We have to compete with flippers all the time to purchase additional properties in the area. They're frequently larger, out-of-state corporations with much deeper pockets than us. They could afford a 1% federal property tax better than I could, both because of their deeper pockets and because they plan to hold on to the property for a much shorter time period, and wager on inflated property valuations. The tax, as all such taxes do, hit the small businessman the hardest.Replies: @Opinionator
As a landlord, instead of a “flipper” we go to court frequently to challenge our property valuations, requesting they be lower, so our property tax assessments will be lower, because our properties have value to us from long-term use, not short-term valuations.
Is there a source you’d recommend for reading up on how to do this?
Philosopher Daniel Dennett’s last book “The Art Instinct” starts out with my theory of golf courses.
Were I have not read 1 % of what I've read on the immigration subject (in > 1 decade) perhaps I would not know the simple fact that America's population is increasing rapidly solely due to immigration.
A lot of people don't read or care to read about basically anything that doesn't affect them personally and right away, or football, of course.Replies: @Autochthon
I entirely agree, and it’s much if the trouble. that everyone is so ignorant and apathetic (quite by design of the tyrants). The trouble is now that it is all so well baked in that to chance discussion, nevermind persuasion, be it ever do gingerly, is to only invite rage and violence from the other fellow; at best one gets perplexed glares of sympathy or disgust, as though one were a madman or a simpleton, or just someone who farted during a fancy dinner. Some people even initiate campaigns if harassment and crime against one, conspiring with corrupt local governments to drive one out of house and home like Frankenstein’s monster. I didn’t introduce myself or broach the relevant topics with these precisely because of these hard learned lessons.
I live in Mexifornia; your milage may vary.
I’m sure that one stings the most!
Agree with your comments about labels. I imagine Toad used his familiar stats package with the defaults.Replies: @res
Yes, but log base 10 is MUCH more easily interpretable for most people (and base 2 isn’t bad, natural logs seem like a terrible choice to me). And I think using a logarithmic scale but with the original values as labels is better.
William Cleveland disagrees though. For anyone who cares, this has a pretty good discussion about labeling log axes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/naomirobbins/2012/01/25/how-should-i-label-log-scales-in-charts-and-graphs
George Hawley looked into whether my state-level analysis would hold up at the county level for the 2000 election and it did:
Home affordability, female marriage rates and vote choice in the 2000 US presidential election
Evidence from US counties
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354068810389641Replies: @res
Thanks. I would have expected that inner cities (is county a fine enough granularity to see low house prices for slums?) would throw a bit of a monkey wrench into this. Any idea how that played out in his work? I wonder how a two variable model (home price and % black) would do?
I just downloaded his paper.
From pages 778-779 we see:
His next paragraph is interesting. I don’t know if this has been discussed here, but it seems topical:
He actually did include black in his Table 2 Model V for Vote for Bush. The largest coefficient at -1.72 with a truly impressive p value based on a standard error of 0.04.
He used linear values for both home values and income. I wonder if changing them to logs would have mattered much.
I think that most people would not know about natural logarithms and even if they did, there would be no reason to use them on the horizontal axis. Common logarithms are the ones that most people know about - that is why they are called "common logarithms" or just "logarithms".
Sometimes using a logarithmic scale, instead of the usual linear one, is appropriate, but I can't see any reason for doing so in this case. However, even if a logarithmic scale is used, it should be labelled with the obvious units, meaning dollars in this case. I mean, would you tell anyone that the natural logarithm of your house's price was 12.43, instead of saying it was worth $250,000?
I agree that the vertical axis is mislabelled, and that the numbers need to be multiplied by 100 to give percentages.
I think that the graph gives very useful information, in spite of how badly it has been labelled.Replies: @anon, @1972 heartbreak kid
Thanks to heavy calculator use, there are a good number of people who call common (base-10) logarithms “logs”, and natural (base-e) lograithms “lins”.