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During the current heatwave in Los Angeles, it’s illegal to go to Los Angeles’s cool, breezy, wide beaches (The Pacific at California is cooler than the East Coast Atlantic at the same latitude due to ocean currents). But the Mayor has reopened some libraries so people can crowd in to get some air conditioning.

Part of the problem is that everybody responds to changes by going to the same place at once. E.g., when L.A. closed shopping malls and restaurants, huge numbers of Angelenos came up independently but simultaneously with the idea of going to the Griffith Park planetarium, which became enormously packed. It’s a little like panic shopping, but in this case, what happened was that everybody got a good idea — The whole family should go for a hike in the mountains — but they weren’t aware of any place to hike other than the Planetarium.

This in turn led to crazier government shutdowns of most outdoor recreation.

One thing that authorities can do to get back to normal is to apply license plate even-odd restrictions to parking lots: E.g., “you can park at the beach parking lots today, April 23rd (and odd number) if your license plate ends in an odd number. Tomorrow, the 24th, only even numbered license plates can park there.” This would probably reduce crowds by, I dunno, 30%?

This kind of thing can then be dropped pretty quickly as people get used to going to the beach or whatever again and demand drops off.

 
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  1. Lol, LA drove down to OC beaches today. I saw the news interview a guy who came down from Sacramento. There is much hand wringing and tut-tutting in LA and SF media over how we’re all going to die now. Screw you, Newsom.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Hey, Farbod, not everyone who comes to Newport Beach lives in Newport Beach. I don't know what your numbers are supposed to illustrate, but, yet, it's a shame the Orange County supervisors couldn't arrange for all cites in Orange County to have their own beaches. It's a shame that you feel it's their job to be the nannies of the people of Orange County. Not all Americans want that. Maybe you really aren't one, and that would explain your tweet.

    To the Orange County "Supervisors":

    "Did you ever know you are my heroes?"

    WHAT!? NO BETTE MIDELER?!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bRWVLEHZpk
    , @Hail
    Who is Farbod Esnaashari? Why is he lecturing us Americans on how to live?
    , @Alexander Turok
    What ever happened to everyone who supported the Iraq war? You almost always hear, 'no, I was opposed to it from the beginning.' All the supporters seem to have vanished into thin air, phew.

    I think they're still here. Still making the same arguments, "oh, Michael Moore opposes this course of action, you don't want to agree with Michael Moore, do you?"
  2. Lol, LA drove down to OC to use our beaches today. There is much hand wringing and tut-tutting going on from the LA and SF media how we’re all going to die now? Screw you, Newsom.

  3. This in turn led to crazier government shutdowns of most outdoor recreation.

    Well, Bois des Sioux announced their front nine opened last Saturday; those are in North Dakota. The back nine, across the river in Minnesota, looked dicier, but their sentence was commuted by the governor. Within a day or so, the entire course opened.

    Here’s a list of every state’s policy as of two days ago:

    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/heres-when-every-state-plans-to-end-their-coronavirus-lockdown

    • Thanks: Keypusher
    • Replies: @res

    Here’s a list of every state’s policy as of two days ago:

    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/heres-when-every-state-plans-to-end-their-coronavirus-lockdown
     
    Thanks. That was a good way of getting a quick summary of what is happening (both now and into the future) around the country.
    , @Black-hole creator
    Thanks for the link. I am about to cancel my upcoming trip to Hawaii, was hoping the situation would change, but it looks unlikely. And even if they lifted the restrictions, I am not even sure myself if I want to risk flying right now.

    Pretty insane that HI is quarantining all visitors for 2 weeks, and also not sure how its economy will stay afloat with no tourism. However, Hawaii appears to be one of the places where the aggressive lockdown worked, unlike SoCal where the situation is not really improving.
    , @Olorin
    Am I the only person who has observed that the artists' inventions of the Doom Virus looks not at all like the electron microscopy photos I've seen (which suggest neutrophil-like blobs with cloudy areas around them)...but more like golf balls with bad acne?

    Or koosh balls of the 1990s.

    Or Pokemon Koffing.

    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=pokemon+coffing&t=ftas&iax=images&ia=images

  4. Daytona Beach is closed for sitting or sunbathing, but open for walking.

    Volusia County beaches are closed. However, certain exercise-related activities are allowed on the beach including walking, jogging, biking, fishing, surfing and swimming. Activities such as sunbathing, sitting in chairs, organized sports or lying on blankets and grouping of people on the beach remains prohibited.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    JS, we had the same nonsense in Brevard until last week.

    You couldn't just ... sit there. But you could just sit there ... if you had a fishing pole.

    But i don't want to be too hard on the manager and commission as they held out against the insanity and at least did not close up. Don't want to even think about how long my "HoneyDo" list would be now if AnotherMom hadn't been getting in her beach walks.

    But ... now you can sit on the beach. You're welcome to hop in your car and drive on down. No parking open at the beach, but you're welcome to park in my driveway and walk over as iSteve commenter courtesy.
  5. Liberty, License, Alpha Males, Betacoronaviruses, Beaches

    Great..just great…cuck-lite perverts -stupidly ignoring idiotic even/odd edicts – nekkid apart from MAGA hats – body-building and becoming bronzed on the beach – arrested, jailed, convicted, imprisoned, raped, forced to make license plates…

  6. Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks. It is normally so empty anyway that once in a while someone will bring a horse in a trailer, let it out in the parking lot, and ride it along the water’s edge. It’s beautiful if you happen to be one of the five or six other people there on the sand to see it.

    Corona-chan is why we can’t have nice things anymore.

    • Thanks: Keypusher
    • Replies: @Russ
    I see from Aviation Week that Connecticut has abandoned the plan to have those Canadian drones fly about taking the temperatures of citizens out and about. In the St. Louis area, St. Louis County parks are closed while St. Louis City parks are open.
    , @MEH 0910
    Planet of the Apes (5/5) Movie CLIP - Statue of Liberty (1968) HD
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDLS12_a-fk

    Behind the Planet of the Apes: "Creating the Statue of Liberty Ending"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWBSt60-TL0

    A clip from the 1998 documentary, "Behind the Planet of the Apes," which examined the five original Planet of the Apes movies and its various tie-ins.

    This clip shows how the production team from the original Planet of the Apes, created one of the most memorable endings in movie history.
     
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Democratic governors is why we can’t have nice things anymore."

    Fixed it for you.
    , @Reg Cæsar
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bdYiJgwzumg
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Buzz, our Saturday drive, sky was blue, weather warm, took my wife and I through the Iroquois Nature Refugee. They have a few hiking trails and a few parking lots so you can view the waterfowl and resident bald eagles. Parking lots were quite full and a couple of people had their horse trailers and their saddled mounts. We have never seen horses there before.
    , @Mr. Anon

    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks.
     
    It makes perfect sense if the goal of the whole undertaking is to demoralize people, make them feel isolated, and accustom them to the arbitrary exercise of governmental power. As Orwell said (I may be paraphrasing here): The purpose of toture IS torture.
    , @Keypusher
    Appreciate the gorgeous picture.
  7. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    I remember visiting the observatory somewhat regularly in 2005, and I was amazed how empty it was. I thought it was a real shame the place wasn’t more crowded, considering it was free.

    Cut to me going around 20010, and the place was actually pretty crowded. By 2015, it was packed regularly, and the predominant number of visitors were Latino. By then, they had what I’d call urban Latino tour guides. Twenty-something fat Mexican guys trying to make astronomy accessible for the homeboys. It was bizarre. Still is. If you’re white, you will be a minority at the Griffith Park Observatory.

    In any case, a big reason that place is so packed now is because Mexicans LOVE a free time out. You get a Mexican working Joe with his wife and 4 kids, the expense of entertaining them is prohibitive. Where the hell else is he gonna take ’em to run around and have fun for that price? Everyone comes home happy, including his wallet.

    New L.A. Rule: Any family entertainment that’s cheap or free, when the Mexicans find out about it, will be packed.

  8. One thing that authorities can do to get back to normal is to apply license plate even-odd restrictions to parking lots

    The only thing that’s Faker & Gayer than our ostensible “normal” are the proposals to return to it.

  9. There seems to be an underlying attitude in too many areas of “Make the Rabble suffer!”.

    • Agree: Old and Grumpy
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    There seems to be an underlying attitude in too many areas of “Make the Rabble suffer!”.
     
    There's definitely a busybody control freak element to all this. We've been naughty children and Nanny has sent us to bed without our supper. Actually we haven't been naughty - Nanny just likes controlling every aspect of our lives.

    And Nanny does not approve of frivolous nonsense like fun.
    , @JMcG
    Just like the government shutdown during which that insufferable prick Obama made sure to shut down national forests and parks. I hope everyone’s eyes are being opened as to whose side law enforcement is on.
  10. Barber shops and barber schools. I’ve been getting by with my Wahl Peanut clipper, doing crude work above the ears and above the neck. The hat or cap I usually wear conceals the crudeness, I think. I’ve attempted haircuts on my own. Electric clippers and razors ‘n’ mirrors and stuff like that. The results reminded me of why God lifted up barbers from the primordial slime to do barber stuff.

    • Agree: RVBlake, Mark G.
    • Replies: @Cortes
    I totally agree. At some point a journalist will grow a pair and ask Trump/Pelosi/“brave celebrity” du jour

    “What safety measures are in place when your hair is done daily?” Followed by “So can the rest of us get a chance to look human again someday soon?”
    , @MikeatMikedotMike
    I have to say the subject of haircuts during this police state is an interesting peripheral. I know no less than 5 friends of the family who are stylists, that also happen to have had salons set up in their homes for side work for quite a long time. Getting a haircut is a few minute drive more of a hassle than it was before, which isn't much, and an excuse to take a drive isn't a bad thing.

    But it's funny to read here how seemingly few people actually have access to a barber or stylist. I suppose there are some advantages to not being a snobby intellectual or other garden variety elitist know-it-all. I have a few lawyer friends still in Cali that I've been Zooming with and all three look like they just got rescued off the ship's boat from the HMS Bounty.

    There's my one comment for the day. At least I know I look better than Sailer and Unz.
    , @RVBlake
    I'm not even gonna attempt any electric self-barbering, just take the scissors and lop it off above the ears. Any time I spend in front of the mirror inevitably leads me to conclude "Why bother" anyway.
    , @Charles
    I have been giving myself haircuts for going on ten years, but I don't have a hairstyle - I just cut it as close to the scalp as possible without being a skinhead. A month or so later I do it again. The $20 electric clippers I bought all those years ago still work fine.
    , @baythoven
    I think it's the female half of our population that's really "suffering" and just dying to get their hair done.
    , @newrouter
    me: #3 on the sides #5 on top.
  11. @Buzz Mohawk
    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks. It is normally so empty anyway that once in a while someone will bring a horse in a trailer, let it out in the parking lot, and ride it along the water's edge. It's beautiful if you happen to be one of the five or six other people there on the sand to see it.

    Corona-chan is why we can't have nice things anymore.

    https://www.travisneighborward.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Sunset-Horse-Ride-by-Sandy-and-Chuck-Harris-Flickr-1024x630.jpg

    I see from Aviation Week that Connecticut has abandoned the plan to have those Canadian drones fly about taking the temperatures of citizens out and about. In the St. Louis area, St. Louis County parks are closed while St. Louis City parks are open.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    There is one town nearby that has begun using drones. That community has certain socioeconomic connections to New York City people, and it was the first one I noticed tallying large numbers of infections after New Rochelle. It fits that they would go the Big Brother route, politically and culturally for them.
  12. Anon[506] • Disclaimer says:

    I fear that the license plate scheme would lead to the “New York Rent a Dog” problem: People would lend out their cars to others. Also, why wouldn’t people just swarm in via Uber, or is Uber outlawed?

    Finally, beach openings would most end up as household mixings, which is what lockdown is supposed to prevent. The unit of quarantine is the household, not the family, not the social friend group, not the romantic partner pair. Individual quarantine would be ideal, but the realities of living spaces prevent it. But a lot of people will end up meeting friends at the beach, or picking them up in their last-digit legal cars (observing social distancing … not).

    So the license plate attempt to create rational, enforceable rules would end up creating end-runs around lock down.

    At some point we may have to throw in the towel and let the big die-off and medical chaos happen if citizens won’t obey the rules, but there’s still a chance we can salvage things. But more and more I think guns and ammo will turn out to be as much of a must-purchase as a pulse oximeter. Things could start to get nasty between the ghetto birthday partiers, the beach goers, the stay-home Karens, the hunker-down Hanks, and so on. And as the percentage of infected zombies increases I think we can kiss the cops goodbye: The job will be less and less appealing, as with any medical related job.

    • Replies: @Old and Grumpy
    How many Californians could walk to the beach? No license plate necessary. Also it is depressing to see how many science loving conservatives have embraced big government and medical tyranny. Sadly conservatives embracing tyranny is becoming the norm. Finally lets hope that 4 million mile estimate from earth for the current asteroid is off by 4 million. Lets just end it all with a big bang. Til then open the beaches, and lets see if Dr Green is still best treatment for viruses.
    , @ScarletNumber

    I fear that the license plate scheme would lead to the “New York Rent a Dog” problem: People would lend out their cars to others.
     
    Well most families have more than one, so if one is odd and one is even, you don't even have to borrow.

    Will there be riots on May 31st?
  13. Anon[385] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    Axios has been a good source of information. It’s not biased in the same way that the NYT and WaPo are. It’s ex-Politico and venture capital guys. The writing style is terse and dense, kind of like VC Powerpoint pitch decks.

    Here’s a good one with what sounds like a clickbait title, but they back it up:

    The coronavirus crisis is way worse than feared

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-crisis-worse-fear-c88158d2-64a3-4da6-a85a-cc6556a6207d.html

    It’s deflating, but it would be derelict to ignore: The hope of anything approximating normal in the coming months — and probably well beyond — is gone.

    It’s time to recalibrate expectations based on this stark reality:

    Bill Gates warned in a blog post this week: “[I]t is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come.”

    Gates said full stadiums and big concerts, both of which will be signs of true normal, “probably will not make the cut for a long time.”

    Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control, told the WashPost he imagines a one-two punch this winter of “the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time.”

    Ask yourself this: How many restaurants, which already operate on thin margins, can survive with half the business?

    “All the experts familiar with vaccine production agreed that even [Fauci’s timeline of at least a year to 18 months] was optimistic.”

    And the World Health Organization said today there is “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.

    And:

    First look: Business to warn against patchwork rules

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will send a letter next week urging President Trump, governors, mayors and county officials to work together on consistent rules for a staged reopening….

    Bradley told me that after consulting businesses and partners in all 50 states, he sees three ways that reopening America could be fumbled:

    — Substituting bureaucracy for proven best practices, with “overly prescriptive” guidelines or regulations about new rules for the workplace.

    — Business could quickly “become paralyzed by a patchwork of differing requirements at different levels of government.”

    — Employers could be frozen by fear of what Bradley called “frivolous lawsuits,” such as employees or customers saying they were exposed to the virus in a workplace.

    Funny, travel and sport journalism are officially dead:

    Tomorrow, the N.Y. Times will debut a new weekly section, “At Home,” as part of a temporary shift in the paper’s Sunday architecture.

    “At Home will help our readers enrich their lives at home even while quarantined by guiding them on what to watch, listen to, read, cook, make and play. At Home will replace … our print Travel section … and Sports Sunday will move into the first section of the newspaper, also temporarily.”

    And what about restaurant reviews?

    • Replies: @Un Question
    Why is no one addressing Vitamin D3 as preventive (not cure). Fauci et al say heat does not help, but vitamin D is light.

    https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/vitamin-d-does-not-cure-covid-19-but-it-plays-an-important-role-WXQ3XdCWckCeAeBTaXI3ww

    Axios article is argument from authority and chooses its authorities. There are other authorities with differing views, such as Dr. Ioannidis.
    , @Ozymandias

    And the World Health Organization said today there is “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection
     
    But is there any evidence antibodies don't protect you from a second infection? There's certainly a wealth of evidence that the WHO is a bag of crap.
    , @theMann
    So let me get this straight:

    The usual collection of grotesque morons, outright liars, stupendous incompetents, and profit seeking conflict of interest buffoons,

    Who have been wildly wrong about every single prediction, pronouncement,and piece of medical advice they have made without exception for three months


    Are the people we should be listening to going forward.


    Ok, you go do that.
    , @Anon
    Corona is the first thing to come along in 50+ years that blasts right through any of the
    privileges of wealth, fame, and electoral and socioeconomic clout. Naturally, Boomers like Gates, Sailer, et. al cannot wrap their heads around it.

    Here is a proposal for Billy Gates and the CDC. Let sporting events continue, packed stadiums and all, but with one exception -- older attendees (55+) and the morbidly obese can't attend. Problem solved.

    Boomer's basically have one year, where we entertain their idiotic notions of "never returning to normal." This has little to do with corona, and more to do with them being an influential voting block in an election year.

    After that, things will return to normal, by society boarding up Boomers in their homes. Problem solved.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    385, Ah, yes. The NYT will "guide us on what to watch, listen to, read, cook, make and play" Use this NYT section until the official Life Rules are issued.
  14. Politics trump Science — open libraries, shut beaches.
    It never ceases to amaze me that governments can’t see the clear differences between outdoor & indoor activities.
    We know the virus can spread via aerosol or droplets. The dangers of each is vastly increased, the lesser the flow-away of air.
    In a high wind, possibly a foot of social distance might be safe. Indoors, with little air movement (or worse, unfiltered air-con) possibly 7, 8, 9 metres of social distance may be inadequate.
    Opening libraries & closed beaches = confused government.

    • Agree: Alice, Harry Baldwin
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    Similar arbitrary decisions characterize the restrictions in Michigan, compounded by Ghoul Witless's lawyer logic that she is not responsible for anything she did not explicitly command in writing (so she did "not" close stores which closed based on their own reading of her pretty unambiguous ukases).
    https://gfycat.com/leftcolorfulbream
    , @ThatsNotAll
    The mortality data for Covid-19 is well established. The most likely to die are those in the last months of their lives.

    The general mortality rate of those in nursing homes is estimated to be 30% to 50% a year. Half of those dying of COVID are nursing home patients!

    Now note who isn't dying from Covid. Healthy people of all ages do not have an elevated mortality riak due to COVID. In fact it is unusual for anyone under 50 to die of COVID. It happens, but it is uncommon.

    Those under 25 have a statistically zero chance of COVID death.

    So why is Bill Gates shilling Covid fear porn? I wish I knew.
    , @Known Fact
    NY libraries remain frustratingly closed, even up here in the great white north. Yes I know there are plenty of "online resources" but I wish they could set up some kind of curbside pickup like some eateries are doing
    , @Anonymous
    lel....people in LA dont read books bro.

    Its for the homeless to use the pisser and stuff.
  15. @Buzz Mohawk
    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks. It is normally so empty anyway that once in a while someone will bring a horse in a trailer, let it out in the parking lot, and ride it along the water's edge. It's beautiful if you happen to be one of the five or six other people there on the sand to see it.

    Corona-chan is why we can't have nice things anymore.

    https://www.travisneighborward.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Sunset-Horse-Ride-by-Sandy-and-Chuck-Harris-Flickr-1024x630.jpg

    Planet of the Apes (5/5) Movie CLIP – Statue of Liberty (1968) HD

    [MORE]

    Behind the Planet of the Apes: “Creating the Statue of Liberty Ending”

    A clip from the 1998 documentary, “Behind the Planet of the Apes,” which examined the five original Planet of the Apes movies and its various tie-ins.

    This clip shows how the production team from the original Planet of the Apes, created one of the most memorable endings in movie history.

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
  16. Anonymous[425] • Disclaimer says:

    Two approaches to the crisis:

    vs.

  17. There is plenty of epidemilogical evidence that being in open air and sunshine helps limit the impact of such viruses.

    When public officials tell you to stay home, it can literally be a death sentence.

  18. @animalogic
    Politics trump Science -- open libraries, shut beaches.
    It never ceases to amaze me that governments can't see the clear differences between outdoor & indoor activities.
    We know the virus can spread via aerosol or droplets. The dangers of each is vastly increased, the lesser the flow-away of air.
    In a high wind, possibly a foot of social distance might be safe. Indoors, with little air movement (or worse, unfiltered air-con) possibly 7, 8, 9 metres of social distance may be inadequate.
    Opening libraries & closed beaches = confused government.

    Similar arbitrary decisions characterize the restrictions in Michigan, compounded by Ghoul Witless’s lawyer logic that she is not responsible for anything she did not explicitly command in writing (so she did “not” close stores which closed based on their own reading of her pretty unambiguous ukases).
    https://gfycat.com/leftcolorfulbream

  19. @Buzz Mohawk
    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks. It is normally so empty anyway that once in a while someone will bring a horse in a trailer, let it out in the parking lot, and ride it along the water's edge. It's beautiful if you happen to be one of the five or six other people there on the sand to see it.

    Corona-chan is why we can't have nice things anymore.

    https://www.travisneighborward.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Sunset-Horse-Ride-by-Sandy-and-Chuck-Harris-Flickr-1024x630.jpg

    “Democratic governors is why we can’t have nice things anymore.”

    Fixed it for you.

    • Agree: Ron Mexico, Buzz Mohawk
  20. @JackOH
    Barber shops and barber schools. I've been getting by with my Wahl Peanut clipper, doing crude work above the ears and above the neck. The hat or cap I usually wear conceals the crudeness, I think. I've attempted haircuts on my own. Electric clippers and razors 'n' mirrors and stuff like that. The results reminded me of why God lifted up barbers from the primordial slime to do barber stuff.

    I totally agree. At some point a journalist will grow a pair and ask Trump/Pelosi/“brave celebrity” du jour

    “What safety measures are in place when your hair is done daily?” Followed by “So can the rest of us get a chance to look human again someday soon?”

  21. OT — WaPo article on serious morbidity and mortality in young people without predisposing conditions, due to Covid-19 strokes and blood clots.

    Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes. Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead. Some didn’t even know they were infected.
    by Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post. April 25, 2020

    Lots of quotes from docs at prestigious US medical centers. I assume these anecdotes are true. Are they meaningful, in terms of what they add to the evolving picture of the disease? (Obviously, they are significant to these patients and their families.)

    • Replies: @SFG
    Probably increases estimated morbidity rates (and mortality rates a little) over what was thought.
    , @Gyre07
    If you've got an agenda you can find plenty of apparently credible (though not particularly knowledgeable) people to pose for the cameras to anchor a 'news' story pushing your trope. There's not much actual evidence to conclude CV-19 is any worse than last year's flu season, and those facts are coming out. So now it's time to make more people fearful by citing all the 'outlier' cases to pump up the fear factor. A lot of smoke, but not much flame for a population too stupid and scared to be able to distinguish fact from opinion, or propaganda.
    , @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    Cases in New York, Philadelphia, and Baltimore.

    What are the odds that these "young people" are obese African American with uncontrolled hypertension?

    Believe me, that's not an attempt to minimize the horror of such events for those individuals. And that's not to say that the virus wasn't the cause of those events. But everything requires perspective.

    A quick look at the stats shows that about 4% of stroke victims are under age 59.

    Meanwhile, hypoxia creates increased risk for blood clots.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180802115657.htm
    , @Buffalo Joe
    ic1000, thank you and ..."some didn't even know they were infected." Well actually the vast majority of us don't know and can't find out if we are infected, but we all are affected.
  22. These actions of banning outdoor recreation while pushing indoor assembly are all the evidence one needs that this pandemic is not about protecting public health.

    What this pandemic is about is giving public officials justification to cause economic destruction, social disruption and to foment fear in order to realize certain political outcomes this November and beyond.

    Of course destroying things is easier than building the right thing. So while this episode has given me cause to hope Trump loses, it has also reminded me that American government is hopelessly corrupt and that politicians and political parties are not worth spit.

  23. @JackOH
    Barber shops and barber schools. I've been getting by with my Wahl Peanut clipper, doing crude work above the ears and above the neck. The hat or cap I usually wear conceals the crudeness, I think. I've attempted haircuts on my own. Electric clippers and razors 'n' mirrors and stuff like that. The results reminded me of why God lifted up barbers from the primordial slime to do barber stuff.

    I have to say the subject of haircuts during this police state is an interesting peripheral. I know no less than 5 friends of the family who are stylists, that also happen to have had salons set up in their homes for side work for quite a long time. Getting a haircut is a few minute drive more of a hassle than it was before, which isn’t much, and an excuse to take a drive isn’t a bad thing.

    But it’s funny to read here how seemingly few people actually have access to a barber or stylist. I suppose there are some advantages to not being a snobby intellectual or other garden variety elitist know-it-all. I have a few lawyer friends still in Cali that I’ve been Zooming with and all three look like they just got rescued off the ship’s boat from the HMS Bounty.

    There’s my one comment for the day. At least I know I look better than Sailer and Unz.

    • Replies: @Thomm

    There’s my one comment for the day.
     
    Which is more than the quality of your comments warrant.

    At least I know I look better than Sailer and Unz.
     
    Aren't you about 40 pounds overweight. It doesn't take much to be better looking than Unz, but I don't think you can clear even that low bar.
  24. They just re-0pened the public boat ramps in Manatee County. They closed them in a fit of pique at citizens congregating on the water though its pretty hard not to socially distance when you are sitting in a fiberglass hull on an undulating surface. Besides there is a breeze and sunshine so its not a lot different than putting the top down on your car and going for a drive. Besides the ban only affected those who did not have private boat slips. It was just a hateful decree by bureaucrats offended by the sight of people out on Sarasota Bay instead of staying cooped up in their home.

    • Replies: @Anon
    Heading to Siesta right now, they closed public beach to the water line until 4:45. So you can’t walk entire beach. Moronic, random edicts.
  25. @animalogic
    Politics trump Science -- open libraries, shut beaches.
    It never ceases to amaze me that governments can't see the clear differences between outdoor & indoor activities.
    We know the virus can spread via aerosol or droplets. The dangers of each is vastly increased, the lesser the flow-away of air.
    In a high wind, possibly a foot of social distance might be safe. Indoors, with little air movement (or worse, unfiltered air-con) possibly 7, 8, 9 metres of social distance may be inadequate.
    Opening libraries & closed beaches = confused government.

    The mortality data for Covid-19 is well established. The most likely to die are those in the last months of their lives.

    The general mortality rate of those in nursing homes is estimated to be 30% to 50% a year. Half of those dying of COVID are nursing home patients!

    Now note who isn’t dying from Covid. Healthy people of all ages do not have an elevated mortality riak due to COVID. In fact it is unusual for anyone under 50 to die of COVID. It happens, but it is uncommon.

    Those under 25 have a statistically zero chance of COVID death.

    So why is Bill Gates shilling Covid fear porn? I wish I knew.

  26. The way it works today –

    A white lesbian advises CA to cut back on over crowding in outdoor public places, as well shopping centers/stores, by declaring that on even days, only license plates that end in an even number may park there, on of odd days only plates that end in an odd number may park there.

    The Gov is tickled pink and begins boasting ab out his super smart lesbian with the brightest future ahead. That makes a Chinese Tiger Mom who also works for the Gov livid. She calls in all her connections to find out where the lesbo got such great idea. One them comes across Steve Sailer, and the Chinese Tiger Mom delights in exposing the white lesbo to the Gov, warning about how the public would respond to knowing that the Gov had adopted an idea that came from such a racist.

    The Gov. naturally, must quietly back away from that plan, and the only way to do that and save face is with more Draconian restriction. That leads all the Numinous Negroes to smell BIG money, and they begin screaming about racism, threatening Million Man Marches. The Jewish lawyers for the Numinous Negroes figure out what happened and then how to make hundreds of millions of dollars for themselves with lawsuits and shake downs.

    ‘Conservative’ Republicans join with Democrats to sing high praise to Diversity, and call for more people from across the globe to come and make America work better.

  27. @ic1000
    OT -- WaPo article on serious morbidity and mortality in young people without predisposing conditions, due to Covid-19 strokes and blood clots.

    Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes. Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead. Some didn’t even know they were infected.
    by Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post. April 25, 2020

    Lots of quotes from docs at prestigious US medical centers. I assume these anecdotes are true. Are they meaningful, in terms of what they add to the evolving picture of the disease? (Obviously, they are significant to these patients and their families.)

    Probably increases estimated morbidity rates (and mortality rates a little) over what was thought.

  28. @Anon
    OT

    Axios has been a good source of information. It's not biased in the same way that the NYT and WaPo are. It's ex-Politico and venture capital guys. The writing style is terse and dense, kind of like VC Powerpoint pitch decks.

    Here's a good one with what sounds like a clickbait title, but they back it up:

    The coronavirus crisis is way worse than feared

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-crisis-worse-fear-c88158d2-64a3-4da6-a85a-cc6556a6207d.html

    It's deflating, but it would be derelict to ignore: The hope of anything approximating normal in the coming months — and probably well beyond — is gone.

    :

    It’s time to recalibrate expectations based on this stark reality:

    Bill Gates warned in a blog post this week: "[I]t is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come."

    Gates said full stadiums and big concerts, both of which will be signs of true normal, "probably will not make the cut for a long time."

    :

    Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control, told the WashPost he imagines a one-two punch this winter of "the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time."

    :

    Ask yourself this: How many restaurants, which already operate on thin margins, can survive with half the business?

    :

    "All the experts familiar with vaccine production agreed that even [Fauci's timeline of at least a year to 18 months] was optimistic."

    :

    And the World Health Organization said today there is "no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.
     
    And:

    First look: Business to warn against patchwork rules

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will send a letter next week urging President Trump, governors, mayors and county officials to work together on consistent rules for a staged reopening....

    Bradley told me that after consulting businesses and partners in all 50 states, he sees three ways that reopening America could be fumbled:

    -- Substituting bureaucracy for proven best practices, with "overly prescriptive" guidelines or regulations about new rules for the workplace.

    -- Business could quickly "become paralyzed by a patchwork of differing requirements at different levels of government."

    -- Employers could be frozen by fear of what Bradley called "frivolous lawsuits," such as employees or customers saying they were exposed to the virus in a workplace.
     
    Funny, travel and sport journalism are officially dead:

    Tomorrow, the N.Y. Times will debut a new weekly section, "At Home," as part of a temporary shift in the paper's Sunday architecture.

    "At Home will help our readers enrich their lives at home even while quarantined by guiding them on what to watch, listen to, read, cook, make and play. At Home will replace ... our print Travel section ... and Sports Sunday will move into the first section of the newspaper, also temporarily."
     
    And what about restaurant reviews?

    Why is no one addressing Vitamin D3 as preventive (not cure). Fauci et al say heat does not help, but vitamin D is light.

    https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/vitamin-d-does-not-cure-covid-19-but-it-plays-an-important-role-WXQ3XdCWckCeAeBTaXI3ww

    Axios article is argument from authority and chooses its authorities. There are other authorities with differing views, such as Dr. Ioannidis.

    • Replies: @neprof
    Starting around October and through April, I take 5000 mg of Vit. D daily. There's probably a reason skin color got whiter the further people migrated from the equator.
  29. @Anon
    OT

    Axios has been a good source of information. It's not biased in the same way that the NYT and WaPo are. It's ex-Politico and venture capital guys. The writing style is terse and dense, kind of like VC Powerpoint pitch decks.

    Here's a good one with what sounds like a clickbait title, but they back it up:

    The coronavirus crisis is way worse than feared

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-crisis-worse-fear-c88158d2-64a3-4da6-a85a-cc6556a6207d.html

    It's deflating, but it would be derelict to ignore: The hope of anything approximating normal in the coming months — and probably well beyond — is gone.

    :

    It’s time to recalibrate expectations based on this stark reality:

    Bill Gates warned in a blog post this week: "[I]t is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come."

    Gates said full stadiums and big concerts, both of which will be signs of true normal, "probably will not make the cut for a long time."

    :

    Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control, told the WashPost he imagines a one-two punch this winter of "the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time."

    :

    Ask yourself this: How many restaurants, which already operate on thin margins, can survive with half the business?

    :

    "All the experts familiar with vaccine production agreed that even [Fauci's timeline of at least a year to 18 months] was optimistic."

    :

    And the World Health Organization said today there is "no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.
     
    And:

    First look: Business to warn against patchwork rules

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will send a letter next week urging President Trump, governors, mayors and county officials to work together on consistent rules for a staged reopening....

    Bradley told me that after consulting businesses and partners in all 50 states, he sees three ways that reopening America could be fumbled:

    -- Substituting bureaucracy for proven best practices, with "overly prescriptive" guidelines or regulations about new rules for the workplace.

    -- Business could quickly "become paralyzed by a patchwork of differing requirements at different levels of government."

    -- Employers could be frozen by fear of what Bradley called "frivolous lawsuits," such as employees or customers saying they were exposed to the virus in a workplace.
     
    Funny, travel and sport journalism are officially dead:

    Tomorrow, the N.Y. Times will debut a new weekly section, "At Home," as part of a temporary shift in the paper's Sunday architecture.

    "At Home will help our readers enrich their lives at home even while quarantined by guiding them on what to watch, listen to, read, cook, make and play. At Home will replace ... our print Travel section ... and Sports Sunday will move into the first section of the newspaper, also temporarily."
     
    And what about restaurant reviews?

    And the World Health Organization said today there is “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection

    But is there any evidence antibodies don’t protect you from a second infection? There’s certainly a wealth of evidence that the WHO is a bag of crap.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Oz, I may be totally wrong, but doesn't a vaccine work by helping your body to develop antibodies? So isn't this like your body making its own vaccine?
    , @leterip
    The WHO has already walked back that dumb statement as follows:.

    World Health Organization (WHO)
    @WHO
    · Apr 25
    Earlier today we tweeted about a new WHO scientific brief on "immunity passports". The thread caused some concern & we would like to clarify:

    We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection.
     
  30. @JackOH
    Barber shops and barber schools. I've been getting by with my Wahl Peanut clipper, doing crude work above the ears and above the neck. The hat or cap I usually wear conceals the crudeness, I think. I've attempted haircuts on my own. Electric clippers and razors 'n' mirrors and stuff like that. The results reminded me of why God lifted up barbers from the primordial slime to do barber stuff.

    I’m not even gonna attempt any electric self-barbering, just take the scissors and lop it off above the ears. Any time I spend in front of the mirror inevitably leads me to conclude “Why bother” anyway.

  31. @AnonAnon
    Lol, LA drove down to OC beaches today. I saw the news interview a guy who came down from Sacramento. There is much hand wringing and tut-tutting in LA and SF media over how we’re all going to die now. Screw you, Newsom.

    https://twitter.com/farbod_e/status/1253873315367620608?s=21

    Hey, Farbod, not everyone who comes to Newport Beach lives in Newport Beach. I don’t know what your numbers are supposed to illustrate, but, yet, it’s a shame the Orange County supervisors couldn’t arrange for all cites in Orange County to have their own beaches. It’s a shame that you feel it’s their job to be the nannies of the people of Orange County. Not all Americans want that. Maybe you really aren’t one, and that would explain your tweet.

    To the Orange County “Supervisors”:

    “Did you ever know you are my heroes?”

    WHAT!? NO BETTE MIDELER?!

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    "cites" is shorthand for "cities", dangit.
  32. Would love to see the REAL stats of people dying WITH the “virus” vs. the ones who died BECAUSE of the “virus.” I have a friend who works at a Walmart in Albany, Georgia and I asked her if anyone she knew had gotten ill with the virus. NADA. I basically see the same faces at my local Walmart in my neck of the woods. NOW, if this virus was this deadly, wouldn’t you think that people who worked at a Walmart store or the other large grocery stores that stayed open would have been dropping like flies? haha. I think another good stat would be the number of grocery store employees who caught the virus. Yeah, yeah, we heard about the medical professionals catching the “virus” and dying. Interestingly, the Walmart near me just started MAKING their employees wear masks this past week. lololol. You start making it mandatory for your employees to wear masks this late in the game. Yet another contradiction in this bullshit fairy tale. ENJOY THE BEACH, PEOPLE. IF you are healthy, fit and strong, you probably have about as much chance of dying from the coronavirus as you do hitting a perfecta on the upcoming Kentucky Derby, which last time I checked will be held in the Fall. smdh.

  33. @Achmed E. Newman
    Hey, Farbod, not everyone who comes to Newport Beach lives in Newport Beach. I don't know what your numbers are supposed to illustrate, but, yet, it's a shame the Orange County supervisors couldn't arrange for all cites in Orange County to have their own beaches. It's a shame that you feel it's their job to be the nannies of the people of Orange County. Not all Americans want that. Maybe you really aren't one, and that would explain your tweet.

    To the Orange County "Supervisors":

    "Did you ever know you are my heroes?"

    WHAT!? NO BETTE MIDELER?!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bRWVLEHZpk

    “cites” is shorthand for “cities”, dangit.

  34. @James Speaks
    Daytona Beach is closed for sitting or sunbathing, but open for walking.

    Volusia County beaches are closed. However, certain exercise-related activities are allowed on the beach including walking, jogging, biking, fishing, surfing and swimming. Activities such as sunbathing, sitting in chairs, organized sports or lying on blankets and grouping of people on the beach remains prohibited.
     

    JS, we had the same nonsense in Brevard until last week.

    You couldn’t just … sit there. But you could just sit there … if you had a fishing pole.

    But i don’t want to be too hard on the manager and commission as they held out against the insanity and at least did not close up. Don’t want to even think about how long my “HoneyDo” list would be now if AnotherMom hadn’t been getting in her beach walks.

    But … now you can sit on the beach. You’re welcome to hop in your car and drive on down. No parking open at the beach, but you’re welcome to park in my driveway and walk over as iSteve commenter courtesy.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
    Thanks, but sand is over rated. I prefer the springs in the Ocala.
    , @St. Regis Philbin
    Always happy to see the Space Coast on iSteve
  35. @Anon
    OT

    Axios has been a good source of information. It's not biased in the same way that the NYT and WaPo are. It's ex-Politico and venture capital guys. The writing style is terse and dense, kind of like VC Powerpoint pitch decks.

    Here's a good one with what sounds like a clickbait title, but they back it up:

    The coronavirus crisis is way worse than feared

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-crisis-worse-fear-c88158d2-64a3-4da6-a85a-cc6556a6207d.html

    It's deflating, but it would be derelict to ignore: The hope of anything approximating normal in the coming months — and probably well beyond — is gone.

    :

    It’s time to recalibrate expectations based on this stark reality:

    Bill Gates warned in a blog post this week: "[I]t is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come."

    Gates said full stadiums and big concerts, both of which will be signs of true normal, "probably will not make the cut for a long time."

    :

    Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control, told the WashPost he imagines a one-two punch this winter of "the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time."

    :

    Ask yourself this: How many restaurants, which already operate on thin margins, can survive with half the business?

    :

    "All the experts familiar with vaccine production agreed that even [Fauci's timeline of at least a year to 18 months] was optimistic."

    :

    And the World Health Organization said today there is "no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.
     
    And:

    First look: Business to warn against patchwork rules

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will send a letter next week urging President Trump, governors, mayors and county officials to work together on consistent rules for a staged reopening....

    Bradley told me that after consulting businesses and partners in all 50 states, he sees three ways that reopening America could be fumbled:

    -- Substituting bureaucracy for proven best practices, with "overly prescriptive" guidelines or regulations about new rules for the workplace.

    -- Business could quickly "become paralyzed by a patchwork of differing requirements at different levels of government."

    -- Employers could be frozen by fear of what Bradley called "frivolous lawsuits," such as employees or customers saying they were exposed to the virus in a workplace.
     
    Funny, travel and sport journalism are officially dead:

    Tomorrow, the N.Y. Times will debut a new weekly section, "At Home," as part of a temporary shift in the paper's Sunday architecture.

    "At Home will help our readers enrich their lives at home even while quarantined by guiding them on what to watch, listen to, read, cook, make and play. At Home will replace ... our print Travel section ... and Sports Sunday will move into the first section of the newspaper, also temporarily."
     
    And what about restaurant reviews?

    So let me get this straight:

    The usual collection of grotesque morons, outright liars, stupendous incompetents, and profit seeking conflict of interest buffoons,

    Who have been wildly wrong about every single prediction, pronouncement,and piece of medical advice they have made without exception for three months

    Are the people we should be listening to going forward.

    Ok, you go do that.

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane
  36. My compliments to our community for staying away from the beaches in LA. From Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice, to Dockweiler – All Clear!! Safer at Home will get us there sooner.

    Where exactly is “there”? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?

    If you’re trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you–at minimum–need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy–power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)–all humming.

    If you aren’t doing that then you are doing what precisely?

    Holding it off to get to a vaccine? That’s a long way off.

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings, figure out best treatment practices, prepare? Ok … how is that going?

    Suppressing the deaths enough so the loons on this blog–who have conveniently outed themselves–can keep baying that it’s “just the flu”?

    • Agree: Black-hole creator
    • Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Where exactly is “there”? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?

    If you’re trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you–at minimum–need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy–power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)–all humming.
     
    "Humming." Yeah. Right. 20+ million unemployed. It's gonna be "humming" alright.

    Yep. Let’s shut down the economy for ANOTHER month, let’s keep every hair salon, burrito truck, and greasy spoon and “non-essential” health care operation shuttered so we can fall into DEEPER depression than we already have in order to save vast swaths of 80 year olds with COPD and uncontrolled hypertension.

    Yeah, not to worry. The government will just print another odd trillion dollars or so to make everybody feel super super confident, and super super safe.

    Sure, let’s keep all the healthy 20-50 year-olds with no co-morbidities under house arrest for another 4 weeks, even though the likelihood of that demographic slice getting really sick from this little bugger, let along dying, is very small.

    Because you know we have to “kill” the virus that is going to mutate anyway and is going to infect people anyway.

    Enjoy being a blunt force economic trauma co-religionist of Comrades Newsom and Whitmer.
    , @Gamecockjerry
    "It is just the flu" for a vast majority of the population. The antibody tests of NYC show that if you are under 50 you have a 5 in 100,000 chance of dying. Similar results are found in the many other tests in Miami, LA, etc.

    You are your fellow 'loons' are the reason 100's of thousands of people will die from suicide, depression, abuse, poverty, etc. in the coming years as they can no longer live.

    We can't 'Kill' off the infection. It' s here and will be going forward. Live in fear if that's they way you want to live. I'll see you in a couple of months when you crawl out from under your rock.
    , @moshe
    Let me concede something to you.

    First, I will ask you to consider tapping the hyperlink of my nom de guerre to get a bit of an idea of how I called this mass hysteria for what it would be (and was and is) from the very start and am slowly being vindicated.

    I say "a bit" because mostly I've how to say the same thing over and over again, and often in generalized simpler terms for simple people. If I had a platform however I would write a solid 15 to 20 pages explaining the details of what I believed and why I believed it - and what, slowly but surely, everyone else but the most die-hard are coming to believe.

    Here's my concession to you AnotherDad.

    Although you and Steve and quite a few other people appear to be highly irrational about this thing as well as dishonest, even dishonest and propagandist in the way of the worst media, you have a very good reason to be tilted that way and even to have more fear than the people who have already come around to my point of view.

    And that is of course because you are more endangered.

    Obviously everything will bias your critical thought toward thinking that it is more dangerous and it is. But, more importantly, you might see things as they actually are and be propagandizing for the obvious reason that your own life is in play.

    Statistically nobody under the age of 60 died from Coronavirus. (Please don't pass on bullshit about coronavirus-caused strokes.) Out of all the deaths, approximately 1 in 25 is of somebody under the age of 60.

    But while (in layman's terms) none number of deaths have been a people under 60 that leaves the much smaller population of people over 60 the shoulder all of the deaths.

    And of course if you're over 70 then you're a member of a much smaller demographic of the population but your demographic is still shouldering ~92% all of the deaths attributed to coronavirus. ((I say "attributed" because I believe that many of the counted deaths were not due to to the virus but to other factors including The Panic ITSELF.))

    That sucks.

    That means that if you're over 70 (needless to say, it's different if you're 70 or 110) you have a 1 in 300 chance of dying from coronavirus.

    That's not nothing.

    If someone 40 years old has only a 1 in 30,000 chance of dying and you have a 1 in 300 then it's pretty easy to see how the two of you can meet as faceless pseudonyms here and come to very different conclusions. (And of course if it causes more deaths than the panic about it, all demographics will find a larger percentage of them dead. This will probably still mean almost nothing to people 40 or under - about a third of whom in metropolitan areas already have it.)

    Now there may be good news for you (unless the following applies which would mean that this is bad news, in which case, for those people for whom this actually is bad news I apologize. but it won't be many, because the people for whom this is bad news generally are not typing on blogs).

    The good news is two-fold.

    Firstly, if you are not in a nursing home your chances of dying of coronavirus decrease somewhat.

    But, and this is the crucial point, the less sick you are COMPARED TO OTHERS OVER 70 (if, being very very convervative, you even are that old) the smaller your chances of dying are.

    Nearly All Patients Hospitalized With Covid-19 Had Chronic Health Issues, Study Finds

    This is very BAD news for old people who have a chronic condition. Especially in nursing homes.

    It means that coronavirus is practically the angel of death.

    And of course the sicker the more likely to die.

    Let me say personally that I have spent approximately two thousand hours visiting people in nursing homes (pro-bono).

    This means two things. One for me one for you.

    Obviously I care GREATLY about those people. Not just one relative or something. Between 1,500 and 3,000 hours spent visiting strangers is not nothing. And the money spent on people I FIRST MET in nursing homes and the time and money spent travelling, etc have not been negligible either.

    AND THIS IS one of the main reasons that I opposed The Panic! I believe that the OBVIOUSLY inaccurate way that the world went about this IS WHAT DOOMED these 100,000 people (my high number isn't due to the first link entirely, in some countries many ot most nursing home deaths were never counted).

    I've writtten details of why and how in previous comments.

    The news for you personally however is good news.

    Having spent so much time there I can tell you that this population, which again, is the population that died in very large part, is far more decrepit than anybody reading this would imagine.

    Many of you know people who are 80 or 90 or a hundred or a hundred and five. I do, and have for all my life.

    Even before I started visiting people in nursing homes and hospices (and hospitals ehich is relevant as well because there are people hooked uo to machines in some hospitals for over a year).

    But the people that I knew and the people that you were likely to know are those who are out and about. Those who are doing okay for their age. not okay, actually they are doing great for their age. Anybody who is 90 years old or a hundred years old or a hundred five years old who is not in a nursing home or hospice or hospital or otherwise hooked up to machines at home, is somebody who is exceptionally healthy for their age.

    The people in nursing homes, of all ages, tend to skew towards being on the quite decrepit side. Only a small percentage are likely to be as healthy as someone's grandfather or great-grandfather who is living at home.

    And if someone here is over 90 years old and and is reading this blog, never mind getting all the way to the end of this comment, then they are NOT SIMILAR to most of the people who have died. THEY/YOU are MUCH HEALTHIER than those who have died.

    Especially if you're "just" 70!

    I hope this helps you feel better about things.

    I also hope this does not make your new ease translate into a lack of concern for those people who may actually be in real danger.

    What I hope it does is make us turn our attention toward our fears for ourselves towards our fears and caring about them.

    And not just about coronavirus. But about ALL the dangers they face (at least those who are better off alive, many are not, trust me). The biggest of which is lonliness and a feeling that the world abandoned them.

    And THAT'S how come it's so insane that they were slaughtered. They were ALREADY QUARANTINED in their horribly sad domicile.

    They should have been the EASIEST to protect.

    And not just that.

    Everyone else at risk (like very ill people at home) should have been quarantined and protected in ad hoc nursing homes created on the spot. EVERY hotel, motel and hostel is empty. Finding space for those in danger who were living with their children (or otherwise) would be the easiest thing in the world. And then protecting them for 6 months or so within the quarantine buildings would have been less 1% as complicated and expensive and insane as what the governments of every country have done, in order to seem important.

    And thus they doomed the people actually at risk and CONTINUE TO DO SO! You'll notice that these improvised new nursing homes Do not exist!

    Instead, the idiots of the world are arguing about whether to continue total quarantine or whether to become totally free. Or half free. Or 13.7% free... NONE of which faces the actual, real, endangered population. All of which continues to oretend that they don't exist.

    Except as a number. A concept. To be used by the media, the fearful masses who FEED the media, the wasteful part of the medical industry, and the politicians who need an excuse for their pretensions to the throne of government...

    And if I, someone with no expertise in any relevant specialty knew this IN FEBRUARY and stuck to it EVERY DAY SINCE until finally the truth can not be obscured anymore (because too many honest people in 40 countries have been involved in the science and medicine and numbers angle) --- Can we really believe that all of the clever people who actually read the reports from China and understood the relevant subjects did NOT know?

    Well, many did. But the majority of the masses and media and medicine and politicians etc, needed and wanted this.

    And so, the plague was spread and imported from China and then Iran and then Italy and then France... to everywhere else. And LITERALLY IMPORTED into nursing homes.

    But while I'm frustrated to be in a position where I feel like everyone around me is mad and I'm a Prophet shouting to a jeering audience, I believe that The Quarantine may, just may, have staved off something far worse. Mankind needed to be pushed off the treadmill and thing rethink things.

    Every new world does it. The Bible called it rhe jubille year. And every half century - almost to the exact year, it comes like clockwork. 2020, 1979, 1920

    [Note: The post WW1 world rethought everything, WW2 had no effect such effect anywhere outside Germany - everywhere else people thought the same things they did before Hitler become an international concern, once he became one, and after he was defeated. The post WW1 generation decided on Pacifism (as an ideological movement/almost-religion). Some even on Absolute Pacifism. Yet, with the exception of Gandhi way out in India they all (at least in Europe before Pearl Harbor) supported the war against Hitler. Bertrand Russell is an example of how they thought. He went to jail for opposing World War 1, supported Churchill in WW 2, and then was jailed again, in 1961, at the age of 89, for opposing the nuclear arms race and lived long enough to publicly oppose The Vietnam War.]

    If this turns out to be a sufficient trauma for people under 35 en masse have the ideological upheaval needed to inherit the world then it will have staved off a world war.

    Let's hope that The Pinker Principle remains true and that the World War One generation bequeathed the need for a much less deadly Jubilee reset in the form of the Vietnam War and it's mirror image in the Anti-War/ Hippie Movement, which bequeathed to our generation no more than a 2 month "Go To Your Room In Order To Be A Soldier In This War Against The Coronavirus/Death".

    Selah.

    , @Reg Cæsar

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings...
     
    Are the nude beaches open now, too?
    , @moshe
    It seems that in the course of writing and dictating my response to you via mobile phone a part was erased including a crucial article that's necessary for my point. I have too much to do to now to re-write the missing part but here's...

    The missing link:

    Nursing homes linked to up to half of coronavirus deaths in Europe, WHO says

    , @Alfa158
    I’ve been watching the IMHE site that tracks cases and deaths and projects the trends to identify the “peak”.
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
    They appear to update their data and projections about twice a week and we are now inside the part of the projection where there should be a visible downward trend. The next couple of updates should be critical. There has been some chatter that we are going to plateau for quite a while rather than be past a peak, and waiting for the next winter spike. There are a lot of carriers judging from the New York and Florida tests of asymptomatic people, but still about 20% at most, so we have a ways to go to so-called herd immunity.
    We aren’t going to have the literal lockdown of people in their residences that you described and was implemented in the Wuhan core. That would only happen in a democracy if we had a pandemic with the 1/3 to 2/3 kill rate of the Black Death. Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza. I think smallpox eventually got to that state. Raging epidemics still devastated previously unexposed populations, but Europeans occasionally got it but survived. A lot of famous people like George Washington had the scars that were left out of their portraits. Maybe somebody here who is more familiar with that history can comment.
  37. @Anon
    I fear that the license plate scheme would lead to the "New York Rent a Dog" problem: People would lend out their cars to others. Also, why wouldn't people just swarm in via Uber, or is Uber outlawed?

    Finally, beach openings would most end up as household mixings, which is what lockdown is supposed to prevent. The unit of quarantine is the household, not the family, not the social friend group, not the romantic partner pair. Individual quarantine would be ideal, but the realities of living spaces prevent it. But a lot of people will end up meeting friends at the beach, or picking them up in their last-digit legal cars (observing social distancing ... not).

    So the license plate attempt to create rational, enforceable rules would end up creating end-runs around lock down.

    At some point we may have to throw in the towel and let the big die-off and medical chaos happen if citizens won't obey the rules, but there's still a chance we can salvage things. But more and more I think guns and ammo will turn out to be as much of a must-purchase as a pulse oximeter. Things could start to get nasty between the ghetto birthday partiers, the beach goers, the stay-home Karens, the hunker-down Hanks, and so on. And as the percentage of infected zombies increases I think we can kiss the cops goodbye: The job will be less and less appealing, as with any medical related job.

    How many Californians could walk to the beach? No license plate necessary. Also it is depressing to see how many science loving conservatives have embraced big government and medical tyranny. Sadly conservatives embracing tyranny is becoming the norm. Finally lets hope that 4 million mile estimate from earth for the current asteroid is off by 4 million. Lets just end it all with a big bang. Til then open the beaches, and lets see if Dr Green is still best treatment for viruses.

  38. There’s a theory now that nicotine could help protect you — was Woody Allen’s Sleeper right after all?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/world-about-panic-hoard-nicotine-products-after-frances-promising-coronavirus-study

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Time to get your supply of nicotine. I prefer Swedish Snus , but may start vaping to get more nicotine into my lungs where it can protect my ACE receptors from Coronavirus. Most people can handle the nicotine gum or lozenges. Smokeless tobacco is less costly but has more nicotine , thus will make most people dizzy. The Camel Snus comes in small pouches which are easier to handle for beginners. No need to spit with Snus (rhymes with noose ) because it is dried tobacco , not fermented like snuff which requires users to spit often.
  39. @animalogic
    Politics trump Science -- open libraries, shut beaches.
    It never ceases to amaze me that governments can't see the clear differences between outdoor & indoor activities.
    We know the virus can spread via aerosol or droplets. The dangers of each is vastly increased, the lesser the flow-away of air.
    In a high wind, possibly a foot of social distance might be safe. Indoors, with little air movement (or worse, unfiltered air-con) possibly 7, 8, 9 metres of social distance may be inadequate.
    Opening libraries & closed beaches = confused government.

    NY libraries remain frustratingly closed, even up here in the great white north. Yes I know there are plenty of “online resources” but I wish they could set up some kind of curbside pickup like some eateries are doing

  40. @Redneck farmer
    There seems to be an underlying attitude in too many areas of "Make the Rabble suffer!".

    There seems to be an underlying attitude in too many areas of “Make the Rabble suffer!”.

    There’s definitely a busybody control freak element to all this. We’ve been naughty children and Nanny has sent us to bed without our supper. Actually we haven’t been naughty – Nanny just likes controlling every aspect of our lives.

    And Nanny does not approve of frivolous nonsense like fun.

    • Replies: @Tlotsi
    More like Nurse Ratched.
    , @obwandiyag
    Sorry, but nothing but diversion name-calling.

    Vietnam is a "Nanny State" (which is a term only used by people who know what nannies are, and therefore have no right to speak, because they are rich, and rich fucks can go fuck themselves) and nobody has died. Hurray for Nanny States. Fie on the shithole whatever it is we got.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-23/vietnam-eases-coronavirus-lockdown
  41. I can’t help but notice, try as I might, the similarity of coronavirus to common flu.

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    I can’t help but notice, try as I might, the similarity of coronavirus to common flu.
     
    In what respect? Have you had both?
  42. Libraries vs beaches:

    This is all about who gets humiliated and forced to bend the knee. I suspect that is what is has been about from the very start 6 weeks ago, but is becoming clearer by the day.

  43. During the current heatwave in Los Angeles, it’s illegal to go to Los Angeles’s cool, breezy, wide beaches. But the Mayor has reopened the libraries so people can crowd in to get some air conditioning.

    There is a complete lack of consistency.
    If anything, this is exactly the opposite of what should be done.

    The panic is worse than the problem.

  44. Chief Michel Moore, like most of our “elites” in government, is very stupid.

  45. I live a block from a beach. I have been going there every other day. It is sparsely populated, mostly by families. 99% are immigrants. Day before yesterday a good looking German woman came with her, 2, very industrious sons. One was about 2 and was determined to empty the ocean with his little plastic bucket.

    Word on the street is that our cops and park rangers have been told not to nit pick and to leave the public alone as long as we aren’t blatently putting other people in danger.

    Garbage cans had been removed from the park, but now have returned. People were throwing bags of dog poop on the ground because they didn’t want to carry them for a mile and take them home in their cars.

    The picnic tables are surrounded by caution tape, but people still sit at them. There is a little wooden bridge that sits over a duck pond that they keep taping off the entrance to. They don’t want people to stand on it and watch the birds. There are a lot of just hatched goslings. My dog has always insisted on walking over the bridge, so we duck under the tape. Usually the tape has been torn off anyway.

  46. @Reg Cæsar

    This in turn led to crazier government shutdowns of most outdoor recreation.
     
    Well, Bois des Sioux announced their front nine opened last Saturday; those are in North Dakota. The back nine, across the river in Minnesota, looked dicier, but their sentence was commuted by the governor. Within a day or so, the entire course opened.


    Here's a list of every state's policy as of two days ago:


    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/heres-when-every-state-plans-to-end-their-coronavirus-lockdown

    Here’s a list of every state’s policy as of two days ago:

    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/heres-when-every-state-plans-to-end-their-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thanks. That was a good way of getting a quick summary of what is happening (both now and into the future) around the country.

  47. @AnotherDad


    My compliments to our community for staying away from the beaches in LA. From Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice, to Dockweiler - All Clear!! Safer at Home will get us there sooner.
     
    Where exactly is "there"? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?


    If you're trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you--at minimum--need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy--power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)--all humming.

    If you aren't doing that then you are doing what precisely?

    Holding it off to get to a vaccine? That's a long way off.

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings, figure out best treatment practices, prepare? Ok ... how is that going?

    Suppressing the deaths enough so the loons on this blog--who have conveniently outed themselves--can keep baying that it's "just the flu"?

    Where exactly is “there”? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?

    If you’re trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you–at minimum–need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy–power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)–all humming.

    “Humming.” Yeah. Right. 20+ million unemployed. It’s gonna be “humming” alright.

    Yep. Let’s shut down the economy for ANOTHER month, let’s keep every hair salon, burrito truck, and greasy spoon and “non-essential” health care operation shuttered so we can fall into DEEPER depression than we already have in order to save vast swaths of 80 year olds with COPD and uncontrolled hypertension.

    Yeah, not to worry. The government will just print another odd trillion dollars or so to make everybody feel super super confident, and super super safe.

    Sure, let’s keep all the healthy 20-50 year-olds with no co-morbidities under house arrest for another 4 weeks, even though the likelihood of that demographic slice getting really sick from this little bugger, let along dying, is very small.

    Because you know we have to “kill” the virus that is going to mutate anyway and is going to infect people anyway.

    Enjoy being a blunt force economic trauma co-religionist of Comrades Newsom and Whitmer.

  48. @ic1000
    OT -- WaPo article on serious morbidity and mortality in young people without predisposing conditions, due to Covid-19 strokes and blood clots.

    Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes. Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead. Some didn’t even know they were infected.
    by Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post. April 25, 2020

    Lots of quotes from docs at prestigious US medical centers. I assume these anecdotes are true. Are they meaningful, in terms of what they add to the evolving picture of the disease? (Obviously, they are significant to these patients and their families.)

    If you’ve got an agenda you can find plenty of apparently credible (though not particularly knowledgeable) people to pose for the cameras to anchor a ‘news’ story pushing your trope. There’s not much actual evidence to conclude CV-19 is any worse than last year’s flu season, and those facts are coming out. So now it’s time to make more people fearful by citing all the ‘outlier’ cases to pump up the fear factor. A lot of smoke, but not much flame for a population too stupid and scared to be able to distinguish fact from opinion, or propaganda.

  49. @AnotherDad


    My compliments to our community for staying away from the beaches in LA. From Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice, to Dockweiler - All Clear!! Safer at Home will get us there sooner.
     
    Where exactly is "there"? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?


    If you're trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you--at minimum--need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy--power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)--all humming.

    If you aren't doing that then you are doing what precisely?

    Holding it off to get to a vaccine? That's a long way off.

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings, figure out best treatment practices, prepare? Ok ... how is that going?

    Suppressing the deaths enough so the loons on this blog--who have conveniently outed themselves--can keep baying that it's "just the flu"?

    “It is just the flu” for a vast majority of the population. The antibody tests of NYC show that if you are under 50 you have a 5 in 100,000 chance of dying. Similar results are found in the many other tests in Miami, LA, etc.

    You are your fellow ‘loons’ are the reason 100’s of thousands of people will die from suicide, depression, abuse, poverty, etc. in the coming years as they can no longer live.

    We can’t ‘Kill’ off the infection. It’ s here and will be going forward. Live in fear if that’s they way you want to live. I’ll see you in a couple of months when you crawl out from under your rock.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    A) You missed the point of my comment.

    B)

    “It is just the flu” for a vast majority of the population.
     
    The Black Death was "just the flu" for a majority of the population. 2/3 or 3/4 survived and ... life was good! Wages went up. (Because they didn't have "global cosmopolitans" insisting on immigration.)

    China-virus-2019 is simply is not "just the flu". It's (ballpark) 10-50x as lethal as the flu. The numbers are in from several places where it had a good run before all the lockdowns. They simply aren't in dispute among honest people who don't have some religious commitment to some contrary position.


    However, not being "just the flu" does not mean the lockdown made or makes sense. That was the point of my comment.
  50. the loons on this blog–who have conveniently outed themselves–can keep baying that it’s “just the flu”?

    26 million and counting out of work, our children’s educations severely disrupted and likely delayed, a looming depression and economic effects that will last for years and people are “loons” for believing the “cure” is not worth it. Yes, I believe the numbers will end up like a flu, perhaps as bad as the 1957 pandemic or 1968 Hong Kong, but still in the range of what we have experienced before.

  51. I live in coastal California. I hike less known nearby trails that are a bit challenging. I encounter o.5 people per hour on those trails. Those county and state trails are now closed, and now I have to walk in the neighborhood. There, I encounter 10 people per hour on weekdays, and 20 per hour on weekends. Thus, Leviathan, for the sake of my safety, increases my exposure to disease 20 to 40 fold.

    Steve is correct. When the city closed parks, more people showed up in state and county parks. Next, the state closed because of increased traffic, followed by the county for the same reason. You could also almost hear the lawyers advising: if we don’t close too, we’ll be liable.

    • Agree: res
  52. Or the people in charge could realize that closing down any outdoor spaces will have a negligible effect in slowing virus spread open it all up at once with an apology for their panic inspired stupidity.

    • LOL: Stan d Mute
  53. Anon[749] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    OT

    Axios has been a good source of information. It's not biased in the same way that the NYT and WaPo are. It's ex-Politico and venture capital guys. The writing style is terse and dense, kind of like VC Powerpoint pitch decks.

    Here's a good one with what sounds like a clickbait title, but they back it up:

    The coronavirus crisis is way worse than feared

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-crisis-worse-fear-c88158d2-64a3-4da6-a85a-cc6556a6207d.html

    It's deflating, but it would be derelict to ignore: The hope of anything approximating normal in the coming months — and probably well beyond — is gone.

    :

    It’s time to recalibrate expectations based on this stark reality:

    Bill Gates warned in a blog post this week: "[I]t is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come."

    Gates said full stadiums and big concerts, both of which will be signs of true normal, "probably will not make the cut for a long time."

    :

    Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control, told the WashPost he imagines a one-two punch this winter of "the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time."

    :

    Ask yourself this: How many restaurants, which already operate on thin margins, can survive with half the business?

    :

    "All the experts familiar with vaccine production agreed that even [Fauci's timeline of at least a year to 18 months] was optimistic."

    :

    And the World Health Organization said today there is "no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.
     
    And:

    First look: Business to warn against patchwork rules

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will send a letter next week urging President Trump, governors, mayors and county officials to work together on consistent rules for a staged reopening....

    Bradley told me that after consulting businesses and partners in all 50 states, he sees three ways that reopening America could be fumbled:

    -- Substituting bureaucracy for proven best practices, with "overly prescriptive" guidelines or regulations about new rules for the workplace.

    -- Business could quickly "become paralyzed by a patchwork of differing requirements at different levels of government."

    -- Employers could be frozen by fear of what Bradley called "frivolous lawsuits," such as employees or customers saying they were exposed to the virus in a workplace.
     
    Funny, travel and sport journalism are officially dead:

    Tomorrow, the N.Y. Times will debut a new weekly section, "At Home," as part of a temporary shift in the paper's Sunday architecture.

    "At Home will help our readers enrich their lives at home even while quarantined by guiding them on what to watch, listen to, read, cook, make and play. At Home will replace ... our print Travel section ... and Sports Sunday will move into the first section of the newspaper, also temporarily."
     
    And what about restaurant reviews?

    Corona is the first thing to come along in 50+ years that blasts right through any of the
    privileges of wealth, fame, and electoral and socioeconomic clout. Naturally, Boomers like Gates, Sailer, et. al cannot wrap their heads around it.

    Here is a proposal for Billy Gates and the CDC. Let sporting events continue, packed stadiums and all, but with one exception — older attendees (55+) and the morbidly obese can’t attend. Problem solved.

    Boomer’s basically have one year, where we entertain their idiotic notions of “never returning to normal.” This has little to do with corona, and more to do with them being an influential voting block in an election year.

    After that, things will return to normal, by society boarding up Boomers in their homes. Problem solved.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Troll: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Anon
    Have you been following the emerging hints that Covid leaves permanent and serious side effects to multiple organs and the brain, results in immunity even shorter than the one year immunity of cold coronaviruses (with the second attacks returning to damaged lungs), and causes strokes, heart attacks, and kidney failure in the young? Fat old people might have the last laugh as they lay dying. At any rate this looks to be one nasty fucker, and it might never go away.
  54. @JackOH
    Barber shops and barber schools. I've been getting by with my Wahl Peanut clipper, doing crude work above the ears and above the neck. The hat or cap I usually wear conceals the crudeness, I think. I've attempted haircuts on my own. Electric clippers and razors 'n' mirrors and stuff like that. The results reminded me of why God lifted up barbers from the primordial slime to do barber stuff.

    I have been giving myself haircuts for going on ten years, but I don’t have a hairstyle – I just cut it as close to the scalp as possible without being a skinhead. A month or so later I do it again. The $20 electric clippers I bought all those years ago still work fine.

    • Replies: @DRA
    I went the other way. I've had a mullet ponytail for a couple of years. It's about six inches and growing, but nobody on Zoom seems to notice.
  55. Steve’s idea is not perfect but not bad. We want to avoid the Nirvana or perfect solution fallacy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy

    An example of this is one person saying we need drunk driving laws. A second person responds that people will still drive drunk anyway. The purpose of the law is to reduce not eliminate drunk driving.

    You need to look at the costs versus the benefits of a proposal. Completely shutting down public parks for a long period may be one of the bad ideas. There are benefits to having open parks. People are under a lot of stress right now. Stress has been shown to weaken the immune system. Being out in nature reduces stress. Exercise and being out in the sun where you can get vitamin D also improves the immune system and overall health and would help you fight off disease. Being too narrowly focused on social distancing may cause political leaders to overlook these factors.

  56. @ic1000
    OT -- WaPo article on serious morbidity and mortality in young people without predisposing conditions, due to Covid-19 strokes and blood clots.

    Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes. Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead. Some didn’t even know they were infected.
    by Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post. April 25, 2020

    Lots of quotes from docs at prestigious US medical centers. I assume these anecdotes are true. Are they meaningful, in terms of what they add to the evolving picture of the disease? (Obviously, they are significant to these patients and their families.)

    Cases in New York, Philadelphia, and Baltimore.

    What are the odds that these “young people” are obese African American with uncontrolled hypertension?

    Believe me, that’s not an attempt to minimize the horror of such events for those individuals. And that’s not to say that the virus wasn’t the cause of those events. But everything requires perspective.

    A quick look at the stats shows that about 4% of stroke victims are under age 59.

    Meanwhile, hypoxia creates increased risk for blood clots.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180802115657.htm

  57. moshe says:
    @AnotherDad


    My compliments to our community for staying away from the beaches in LA. From Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice, to Dockweiler - All Clear!! Safer at Home will get us there sooner.
     
    Where exactly is "there"? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?


    If you're trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you--at minimum--need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy--power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)--all humming.

    If you aren't doing that then you are doing what precisely?

    Holding it off to get to a vaccine? That's a long way off.

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings, figure out best treatment practices, prepare? Ok ... how is that going?

    Suppressing the deaths enough so the loons on this blog--who have conveniently outed themselves--can keep baying that it's "just the flu"?

    Let me concede something to you.

    First, I will ask you to consider tapping the hyperlink of my nom de guerre to get a bit of an idea of how I called this mass hysteria for what it would be (and was and is) from the very start and am slowly being vindicated.

    I say “a bit” because mostly I’ve how to say the same thing over and over again, and often in generalized simpler terms for simple people. If I had a platform however I would write a solid 15 to 20 pages explaining the details of what I believed and why I believed it – and what, slowly but surely, everyone else but the most die-hard are coming to believe.

    Here’s my concession to you AnotherDad.

    Although you and Steve and quite a few other people appear to be highly irrational about this thing as well as dishonest, even dishonest and propagandist in the way of the worst media, you have a very good reason to be tilted that way and even to have more fear than the people who have already come around to my point of view.

    And that is of course because you are more endangered.

    Obviously everything will bias your critical thought toward thinking that it is more dangerous and it is. But, more importantly, you might see things as they actually are and be propagandizing for the obvious reason that your own life is in play.

    Statistically nobody under the age of 60 died from Coronavirus. (Please don’t pass on bullshit about coronavirus-caused strokes.) Out of all the deaths, approximately 1 in 25 is of somebody under the age of 60.

    But while (in layman’s terms) none number of deaths have been a people under 60 that leaves the much smaller population of people over 60 the shoulder all of the deaths.

    And of course if you’re over 70 then you’re a member of a much smaller demographic of the population but your demographic is still shouldering ~92% all of the deaths attributed to coronavirus. ((I say “attributed” because I believe that many of the counted deaths were not due to to the virus but to other factors including The Panic ITSELF.))

    That sucks.

    That means that if you’re over 70 (needless to say, it’s different if you’re 70 or 110) you have a 1 in 300 chance of dying from coronavirus.

    That’s not nothing.

    If someone 40 years old has only a 1 in 30,000 chance of dying and you have a 1 in 300 then it’s pretty easy to see how the two of you can meet as faceless pseudonyms here and come to very different conclusions. (And of course if it causes more deaths than the panic about it, all demographics will find a larger percentage of them dead. This will probably still mean almost nothing to people 40 or under – about a third of whom in metropolitan areas already have it.)

    Now there may be good news for you (unless the following applies which would mean that this is bad news, in which case, for those people for whom this actually is bad news I apologize. but it won’t be many, because the people for whom this is bad news generally are not typing on blogs).

    The good news is two-fold.

    Firstly, if you are not in a nursing home your chances of dying of coronavirus decrease somewhat.

    But, and this is the crucial point, the less sick you are COMPARED TO OTHERS OVER 70 (if, being very very convervative, you even are that old) the smaller your chances of dying are.

    Nearly All Patients Hospitalized With Covid-19 Had Chronic Health Issues, Study Finds

    This is very BAD news for old people who have a chronic condition. Especially in nursing homes.

    It means that coronavirus is practically the angel of death.

    And of course the sicker the more likely to die.

    Let me say personally that I have spent approximately two thousand hours visiting people in nursing homes (pro-bono).

    This means two things. One for me one for you.

    Obviously I care GREATLY about those people. Not just one relative or something. Between 1,500 and 3,000 hours spent visiting strangers is not nothing. And the money spent on people I FIRST MET in nursing homes and the time and money spent travelling, etc have not been negligible either.

    AND THIS IS one of the main reasons that I opposed The Panic! I believe that the OBVIOUSLY inaccurate way that the world went about this IS WHAT DOOMED these 100,000 people (my high number isn’t due to the first link entirely, in some countries many ot most nursing home deaths were never counted).

    I’ve writtten details of why and how in previous comments.

    The news for you personally however is good news.

    Having spent so much time there I can tell you that this population, which again, is the population that died in very large part, is far more decrepit than anybody reading this would imagine.

    Many of you know people who are 80 or 90 or a hundred or a hundred and five. I do, and have for all my life.

    Even before I started visiting people in nursing homes and hospices (and hospitals ehich is relevant as well because there are people hooked uo to machines in some hospitals for over a year).

    But the people that I knew and the people that you were likely to know are those who are out and about. Those who are doing okay for their age. not okay, actually they are doing great for their age. Anybody who is 90 years old or a hundred years old or a hundred five years old who is not in a nursing home or hospice or hospital or otherwise hooked up to machines at home, is somebody who is exceptionally healthy for their age.

    The people in nursing homes, of all ages, tend to skew towards being on the quite decrepit side. Only a small percentage are likely to be as healthy as someone’s grandfather or great-grandfather who is living at home.

    And if someone here is over 90 years old and and is reading this blog, never mind getting all the way to the end of this comment, then they are NOT SIMILAR to most of the people who have died. THEY/YOU are MUCH HEALTHIER than those who have died.

    Especially if you’re “just” 70!

    I hope this helps you feel better about things.

    I also hope this does not make your new ease translate into a lack of concern for those people who may actually be in real danger.

    What I hope it does is make us turn our attention toward our fears for ourselves towards our fears and caring about them.

    And not just about coronavirus. But about ALL the dangers they face (at least those who are better off alive, many are not, trust me). The biggest of which is lonliness and a feeling that the world abandoned them.

    And THAT’S how come it’s so insane that they were slaughtered. They were ALREADY QUARANTINED in their horribly sad domicile.

    They should have been the EASIEST to protect.

    And not just that.

    Everyone else at risk (like very ill people at home) should have been quarantined and protected in ad hoc nursing homes created on the spot. EVERY hotel, motel and hostel is empty. Finding space for those in danger who were living with their children (or otherwise) would be the easiest thing in the world. And then protecting them for 6 months or so within the quarantine buildings would have been less 1% as complicated and expensive and insane as what the governments of every country have done, in order to seem important.

    And thus they doomed the people actually at risk and CONTINUE TO DO SO! You’ll notice that these improvised new nursing homes Do not exist!

    Instead, the idiots of the world are arguing about whether to continue total quarantine or whether to become totally free. Or half free. Or 13.7% free… NONE of which faces the actual, real, endangered population. All of which continues to oretend that they don’t exist.

    Except as a number. A concept. To be used by the media, the fearful masses who FEED the media, the wasteful part of the medical industry, and the politicians who need an excuse for their pretensions to the throne of government…

    And if I, someone with no expertise in any relevant specialty knew this IN FEBRUARY and stuck to it EVERY DAY SINCE until finally the truth can not be obscured anymore (because too many honest people in 40 countries have been involved in the science and medicine and numbers angle) — Can we really believe that all of the clever people who actually read the reports from China and understood the relevant subjects did NOT know?

    Well, many did. But the majority of the masses and media and medicine and politicians etc, needed and wanted this.

    And so, the plague was spread and imported from China and then Iran and then Italy and then France… to everywhere else. And LITERALLY IMPORTED into nursing homes.

    But while I’m frustrated to be in a position where I feel like everyone around me is mad and I’m a Prophet shouting to a jeering audience, I believe that The Quarantine may, just may, have staved off something far worse. Mankind needed to be pushed off the treadmill and thing rethink things.

    Every new world does it. The Bible called it rhe jubille year. And every half century – almost to the exact year, it comes like clockwork. 2020, 1979, 1920

    [Note: The post WW1 world rethought everything, WW2 had no effect such effect anywhere outside Germany – everywhere else people thought the same things they did before Hitler become an international concern, once he became one, and after he was defeated. The post WW1 generation decided on Pacifism (as an ideological movement/almost-religion). Some even on Absolute Pacifism. Yet, with the exception of Gandhi way out in India they all (at least in Europe before Pearl Harbor) supported the war against Hitler. Bertrand Russell is an example of how they thought. He went to jail for opposing World War 1, supported Churchill in WW 2, and then was jailed again, in 1961, at the age of 89, for opposing the nuclear arms race and lived long enough to publicly oppose The Vietnam War.]

    If this turns out to be a sufficient trauma for people under 35 en masse have the ideological upheaval needed to inherit the world then it will have staved off a world war.

    Let’s hope that The Pinker Principle remains true and that the World War One generation bequeathed the need for a much less deadly Jubilee reset in the form of the Vietnam War and it’s mirror image in the Anti-War/ Hippie Movement, which bequeathed to our generation no more than a 2 month “Go To Your Room In Order To Be A Soldier In This War Against The Coronavirus/Death”.

    Selah.

    • Replies: @johnomd
    And the award for TL;DR goes to...

    Seriously, you might want to hire an editor to help condense your posts down to 3 pages or less.
  58. @Reg Cæsar

    This in turn led to crazier government shutdowns of most outdoor recreation.
     
    Well, Bois des Sioux announced their front nine opened last Saturday; those are in North Dakota. The back nine, across the river in Minnesota, looked dicier, but their sentence was commuted by the governor. Within a day or so, the entire course opened.


    Here's a list of every state's policy as of two days ago:


    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/heres-when-every-state-plans-to-end-their-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thanks for the link. I am about to cancel my upcoming trip to Hawaii, was hoping the situation would change, but it looks unlikely. And even if they lifted the restrictions, I am not even sure myself if I want to risk flying right now.

    Pretty insane that HI is quarantining all visitors for 2 weeks, and also not sure how its economy will stay afloat with no tourism. However, Hawaii appears to be one of the places where the aggressive lockdown worked, unlike SoCal where the situation is not really improving.

  59. I just posted a lengthy comment/ open letter to AnotherDad.

    If you approach it with an open mind it may change your thoughts and feelings about this panic entirely.

    And for the better, happier, and more useful.

    I gained a lot by writing it. I hope and believe that even if you think I am wrong on some small points – and even if I am actually wrong on some lesser points (as I may be bound to be within such a long Open Letter To AnotherDad), or if there are typo or dictation errors, or if some parts seem too numberey or boring or upsetting, please read this. For your sake.

    • Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    Moshe, you appear to have a very high level of patience.

    Mine is just about gone.

    Fact 1: Wuhan is bad -- but mostly for nursing home patients and/or those with raging or a high level of co-morbidities or those who are immuno-compromised.

    Fact 2 : Wuhan is bad -- for those few outliers who do not fall in the categories in Fact 1. But they are outliers.

    Fact 3: Wuhan is NOT bad or tolerably bad -- for most already healthy people.

    Fact 4: The ostensible reason for "shutting" down -- the hospital system being overwhelmed -- has not happened.

    Therefore, this should all end, and right now.

    , @anon
    I just posted a lengthy comment/ open letter to AnotherDad.

    Too long,



    didn't read.
  60. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:
    @animalogic
    Politics trump Science -- open libraries, shut beaches.
    It never ceases to amaze me that governments can't see the clear differences between outdoor & indoor activities.
    We know the virus can spread via aerosol or droplets. The dangers of each is vastly increased, the lesser the flow-away of air.
    In a high wind, possibly a foot of social distance might be safe. Indoors, with little air movement (or worse, unfiltered air-con) possibly 7, 8, 9 metres of social distance may be inadequate.
    Opening libraries & closed beaches = confused government.

    lel….people in LA dont read books bro.

    Its for the homeless to use the pisser and stuff.

  61. @Buzz Mohawk
    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks. It is normally so empty anyway that once in a while someone will bring a horse in a trailer, let it out in the parking lot, and ride it along the water's edge. It's beautiful if you happen to be one of the five or six other people there on the sand to see it.

    Corona-chan is why we can't have nice things anymore.

    https://www.travisneighborward.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Sunset-Horse-Ride-by-Sandy-and-Chuck-Harris-Flickr-1024x630.jpg

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
  62. @AnotherDad


    My compliments to our community for staying away from the beaches in LA. From Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice, to Dockweiler - All Clear!! Safer at Home will get us there sooner.
     
    Where exactly is "there"? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?


    If you're trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you--at minimum--need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy--power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)--all humming.

    If you aren't doing that then you are doing what precisely?

    Holding it off to get to a vaccine? That's a long way off.

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings, figure out best treatment practices, prepare? Ok ... how is that going?

    Suppressing the deaths enough so the loons on this blog--who have conveniently outed themselves--can keep baying that it's "just the flu"?

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings

    Are the nude beaches open now, too?

  63. @Redneck farmer
    There seems to be an underlying attitude in too many areas of "Make the Rabble suffer!".

    Just like the government shutdown during which that insufferable prick Obama made sure to shut down national forests and parks. I hope everyone’s eyes are being opened as to whose side law enforcement is on.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    I hope everyone’s eyes are being opened as to whose side law enforcement is on.
     
    LEOs care about their gold plated pensions they can collect after 20 years on the job. No sides involved.
  64. I really don’t understand golf course closures. Wouldn’t golf be the epitome of a social distance sport? (I don’t know, I don’t play, so I’m just asking.) Same would hold true of tennis, I’d think.

    Yes, you’d have to close down clubhouses and shower facilities – and I guess limit the number in each golfing group – but I’d think most devoted athletes could deal with that.

    https://www.golfdigest.com/story/heres-a-state-by-state-breakdown-of-where-golfs-allowed-and-where-it-isnt

  65. During the current heatwave in Los Angeles, it’s illegal to go to Los Angeles’s cool, breezy, wide beaches. But the Mayor has reopened the libraries so people can crowd in to get some air conditioning.

    Minorities in charge. And when Stacy Abrams takes over as President when Biden falls out of Marine One, things are really going to be great.

  66. @Buzz Mohawk
    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks. It is normally so empty anyway that once in a while someone will bring a horse in a trailer, let it out in the parking lot, and ride it along the water's edge. It's beautiful if you happen to be one of the five or six other people there on the sand to see it.

    Corona-chan is why we can't have nice things anymore.

    https://www.travisneighborward.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Sunset-Horse-Ride-by-Sandy-and-Chuck-Harris-Flickr-1024x630.jpg

    Buzz, our Saturday drive, sky was blue, weather warm, took my wife and I through the Iroquois Nature Refugee. They have a few hiking trails and a few parking lots so you can view the waterfowl and resident bald eagles. Parking lots were quite full and a couple of people had their horse trailers and their saddled mounts. We have never seen horses there before.

    • Replies: @Anon87
    How easy is it to spot bald eagles there? I can never seem to see them locally or up in ADK.
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    It sounds nice there. My log cabin was Upstate by one of the little lakes extending from the Finger Lakes. People up there wish the world didn't think "New York" just means that giant city. The city is not New York.

    That is a city that dominates media and has an outsized influence on perceptions of what America is and what is going here. If not for the NYC-centric domination of the story, Corona-chan would be far less of an American panic than it is. Notice that NYC's Corona experience is entirely different from the rest of us.

    Gee, maybe New York City isn't normal. Maybe we should not listen to it so much.

    Nah!

    I imagine local leaders down here in Connecticut reasoned that people with too much time and not enough space would flock to places like the one you describe up your way. So, they closed the beaches that normally are empty during the cool months. I don't agree with it, but that has to be the only logic to it. Either that or just dumb power held by the usual dumb people who make dumb decisions because they can.

  67. @AnotherDad


    My compliments to our community for staying away from the beaches in LA. From Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice, to Dockweiler - All Clear!! Safer at Home will get us there sooner.
     
    Where exactly is "there"? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?


    If you're trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you--at minimum--need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy--power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)--all humming.

    If you aren't doing that then you are doing what precisely?

    Holding it off to get to a vaccine? That's a long way off.

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings, figure out best treatment practices, prepare? Ok ... how is that going?

    Suppressing the deaths enough so the loons on this blog--who have conveniently outed themselves--can keep baying that it's "just the flu"?

    It seems that in the course of writing and dictating my response to you via mobile phone a part was erased including a crucial article that’s necessary for my point. I have too much to do to now to re-write the missing part but here’s…

    The missing link:

    Nursing homes linked to up to half of coronavirus deaths in Europe, WHO says

  68. Ask yourself this: How many restaurants, which already operate on thin margins, can survive with half the business?

    The answer is “none” but this is the wrong question. If you double the normal separation between tables you’ve reduced the capacity to a quarter of the original space.

    But that’s not right either. Restaurants which can’t expand their footprint will close. Restaurants which can will acquire additional space so that the same staffing and kitchen capacity can be fully utilized. A randomly chosen website I can’t be bothered to vet tells me that lease costs should be between 5% -8% of total revenue. Add a few points for heating/lighting and we’re looking at more like a 17% loss of revenue. This would (likely) be partially offset by a drop in lease rates for restaurant space but of course everyone’s mileage would differ.

    This is not to discount the pain and dis-locution for all involved.

  69. @Anon
    OT

    Axios has been a good source of information. It's not biased in the same way that the NYT and WaPo are. It's ex-Politico and venture capital guys. The writing style is terse and dense, kind of like VC Powerpoint pitch decks.

    Here's a good one with what sounds like a clickbait title, but they back it up:

    The coronavirus crisis is way worse than feared

    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-crisis-worse-fear-c88158d2-64a3-4da6-a85a-cc6556a6207d.html

    It's deflating, but it would be derelict to ignore: The hope of anything approximating normal in the coming months — and probably well beyond — is gone.

    :

    It’s time to recalibrate expectations based on this stark reality:

    Bill Gates warned in a blog post this week: "[I]t is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come."

    Gates said full stadiums and big concerts, both of which will be signs of true normal, "probably will not make the cut for a long time."

    :

    Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control, told the WashPost he imagines a one-two punch this winter of "the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time."

    :

    Ask yourself this: How many restaurants, which already operate on thin margins, can survive with half the business?

    :

    "All the experts familiar with vaccine production agreed that even [Fauci's timeline of at least a year to 18 months] was optimistic."

    :

    And the World Health Organization said today there is "no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.
     
    And:

    First look: Business to warn against patchwork rules

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will send a letter next week urging President Trump, governors, mayors and county officials to work together on consistent rules for a staged reopening....

    Bradley told me that after consulting businesses and partners in all 50 states, he sees three ways that reopening America could be fumbled:

    -- Substituting bureaucracy for proven best practices, with "overly prescriptive" guidelines or regulations about new rules for the workplace.

    -- Business could quickly "become paralyzed by a patchwork of differing requirements at different levels of government."

    -- Employers could be frozen by fear of what Bradley called "frivolous lawsuits," such as employees or customers saying they were exposed to the virus in a workplace.
     
    Funny, travel and sport journalism are officially dead:

    Tomorrow, the N.Y. Times will debut a new weekly section, "At Home," as part of a temporary shift in the paper's Sunday architecture.

    "At Home will help our readers enrich their lives at home even while quarantined by guiding them on what to watch, listen to, read, cook, make and play. At Home will replace ... our print Travel section ... and Sports Sunday will move into the first section of the newspaper, also temporarily."
     
    And what about restaurant reviews?

    385, Ah, yes. The NYT will “guide us on what to watch, listen to, read, cook, make and play” Use this NYT section until the official Life Rules are issued.

    • Agree: Daniel Williams
  70. @ic1000
    OT -- WaPo article on serious morbidity and mortality in young people without predisposing conditions, due to Covid-19 strokes and blood clots.

    Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes. Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead. Some didn’t even know they were infected.
    by Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post. April 25, 2020

    Lots of quotes from docs at prestigious US medical centers. I assume these anecdotes are true. Are they meaningful, in terms of what they add to the evolving picture of the disease? (Obviously, they are significant to these patients and their families.)

    ic1000, thank you and …”some didn’t even know they were infected.” Well actually the vast majority of us don’t know and can’t find out if we are infected, but we all are affected.

  71. @AnotherDad


    My compliments to our community for staying away from the beaches in LA. From Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice, to Dockweiler - All Clear!! Safer at Home will get us there sooner.
     
    Where exactly is "there"? This fantastic place that we are getting to sooner?


    If you're trying to actually *kill* off the infection, then you--at minimum--need to lock down everyone in their homes for at least two months (more accurately at least 1month x number of persons in household) while having the actually critical parts of the economy--power, water, sewer, food production, transport and distribution (door to door!)--all humming.

    If you aren't doing that then you are doing what precisely?

    Holding it off to get to a vaccine? That's a long way off.

    Giving us a little window to steady, get our barings, figure out best treatment practices, prepare? Ok ... how is that going?

    Suppressing the deaths enough so the loons on this blog--who have conveniently outed themselves--can keep baying that it's "just the flu"?

    I’ve been watching the IMHE site that tracks cases and deaths and projects the trends to identify the “peak”.
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
    They appear to update their data and projections about twice a week and we are now inside the part of the projection where there should be a visible downward trend. The next couple of updates should be critical. There has been some chatter that we are going to plateau for quite a while rather than be past a peak, and waiting for the next winter spike. There are a lot of carriers judging from the New York and Florida tests of asymptomatic people, but still about 20% at most, so we have a ways to go to so-called herd immunity.
    We aren’t going to have the literal lockdown of people in their residences that you described and was implemented in the Wuhan core. That would only happen in a democracy if we had a pandemic with the 1/3 to 2/3 kill rate of the Black Death. Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza. I think smallpox eventually got to that state. Raging epidemics still devastated previously unexposed populations, but Europeans occasionally got it but survived. A lot of famous people like George Washington had the scars that were left out of their portraits. Maybe somebody here who is more familiar with that history can comment.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza.
     
    Alfa158 i basically agree with this. I've said from the beginning that a likely come down here is--baring a "one shot" vaccine--that this thing is around "forever". (Meaning for decades until our medical knowledge is such we're whacking out all such disease.) And it's possible people would get their yearly SARS vaccine--a guess at this year's strain--like they get a yearly flu vaccine.


    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the "it's just the flu, bro" boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was "jus the flu".

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.

    This idea "actions have consequences--i.e. change outcomes--i did not think was beyond the comprehension of commenters here, but apparently it is for some.

  72. Turns out the little ships aren’t super-spreaders after all.

    Children unlikely to transmit coronavirus, says study cited in PM’s push to reopen schools
    NSW report held up as Morrison government seeks return to classrooms across Australia despite warnings from teacher unions

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/children-unlikely-to-transmit-coronavirus-says-study-cited-in-pms-push-to-reopen-schools

  73. @Buffalo Joe
    Buzz, our Saturday drive, sky was blue, weather warm, took my wife and I through the Iroquois Nature Refugee. They have a few hiking trails and a few parking lots so you can view the waterfowl and resident bald eagles. Parking lots were quite full and a couple of people had their horse trailers and their saddled mounts. We have never seen horses there before.

    How easy is it to spot bald eagles there? I can never seem to see them locally or up in ADK.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Anon, don't know where you live but there is a parking spot on Rte 77 north where it splits from Rte 63 in the Town of Alabama. Drive about a mile and a half and you come to a sizeable parking area. Pull up to the log guard rail and straight ahead, maybe 400 yards, high in a tree, is the nest. Bald eagle nests are huge, like a LaZyBoy recliner in full recline. The is also a nesting platform atop a nearby telephone pole on Rte 77, a pair of Osprey nest there. Lots of fish and waterfowl for the raptors.
  74. @AnotherDad
    JS, we had the same nonsense in Brevard until last week.

    You couldn't just ... sit there. But you could just sit there ... if you had a fishing pole.

    But i don't want to be too hard on the manager and commission as they held out against the insanity and at least did not close up. Don't want to even think about how long my "HoneyDo" list would be now if AnotherMom hadn't been getting in her beach walks.

    But ... now you can sit on the beach. You're welcome to hop in your car and drive on down. No parking open at the beach, but you're welcome to park in my driveway and walk over as iSteve commenter courtesy.

    Thanks, but sand is over rated. I prefer the springs in the Ocala.

  75. Anon[691] • Disclaimer says:

    Countries that keep better records show clear signs of the pandemic dying out. Here’s data from the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 dashboard. All these countries have strong declines in new cases plus a large portion of recoveries in comparison to total cases:

    Germany:

    Total infected: 157K
    Total recovered: 112K

    Switzerland:

    Total infected: 29K
    Total recovered: 21K

    Austria:

    Total infected: 15K
    Total recovered: 12K

    South Korea:

    Total infected: 10K
    Total recovered: 8K

    Denmark:

    Total infected: 8K
    Total recovered: 6K

    Australia:

    Total infected: 6K
    Total recovered: 5K

    Luxembourg:

    Total infected: 3.7K
    Total recovered: 3.1K

  76. @moshe
    I just posted a lengthy comment/ open letter to AnotherDad.

    If you approach it with an open mind it may change your thoughts and feelings about this panic entirely.

    And for the better, happier, and more useful.

    I gained a lot by writing it. I hope and believe that even if you think I am wrong on some small points - and even if I am actually wrong on some lesser points (as I may be bound to be within such a long Open Letter To AnotherDad), or if there are typo or dictation errors, or if some parts seem too numberey or boring or upsetting, please read this. For your sake.

    Moshe, you appear to have a very high level of patience.

    Mine is just about gone.

    Fact 1: Wuhan is bad — but mostly for nursing home patients and/or those with raging or a high level of co-morbidities or those who are immuno-compromised.

    Fact 2 : Wuhan is bad — for those few outliers who do not fall in the categories in Fact 1. But they are outliers.

    Fact 3: Wuhan is NOT bad or tolerably bad — for most already healthy people.

    Fact 4: The ostensible reason for “shutting” down — the hospital system being overwhelmed — has not happened.

    Therefore, this should all end, and right now.

    • Replies: @moshe
    Right, but in addition to freeing the masses, the elderly need to be protected and, if anyone of importance reads my letter or even has common sense, they'll see how it is EASY to so so. (And just until a vaccine/treatment/mass immunity(?) is reached.
  77. UK says:

    OT but I’ve been listening to Matt Taibbi’s podcast with Katie Halper “Useful Idiots”. It is an excellent view from the sensible left and really funny to boot. They’re both likeable and thoughtful individuals.

    Nonetheless, they just had Nina Turner on from the Bernie Sanders campaign and for the entire interview she shouted substanceless rhetoric expressing how she feels about things. I’ve never heard or met anyone with such a surfeit of self-love. What the hell was that? An Englishman needs to understand.

  78. @Buffalo Joe
    Buzz, our Saturday drive, sky was blue, weather warm, took my wife and I through the Iroquois Nature Refugee. They have a few hiking trails and a few parking lots so you can view the waterfowl and resident bald eagles. Parking lots were quite full and a couple of people had their horse trailers and their saddled mounts. We have never seen horses there before.

    It sounds nice there. My log cabin was Upstate by one of the little lakes extending from the Finger Lakes. People up there wish the world didn’t think “New York” just means that giant city. The city is not New York.

    That is a city that dominates media and has an outsized influence on perceptions of what America is and what is going here. If not for the NYC-centric domination of the story, Corona-chan would be far less of an American panic than it is. Notice that NYC’s Corona experience is entirely different from the rest of us.

    Gee, maybe New York City isn’t normal. Maybe we should not listen to it so much.

    Nah!

    I imagine local leaders down here in Connecticut reasoned that people with too much time and not enough space would flock to places like the one you describe up your way. So, they closed the beaches that normally are empty during the cool months. I don’t agree with it, but that has to be the only logic to it. Either that or just dumb power held by the usual dumb people who make dumb decisions because they can.

    • Agree: Buffalo Joe
    • Replies: @anon

    perceptions of what America is
     
    I know well educated people from other countries (this is pre-internet era) being surprised that people in U.S. live in ordinary single story ranch homes. Many get their visual info from Hollywood and equate views of Manhattan and other major metro skylines with America.
    , @Mr. Anon
    I think the New York City area - NYC and nearby areas in New Jersey - account for about half the coronavirus deaths (or should I say, half the deaths attributed to coronavirus). If instead, half the coronavirus deaths were happening in and around Kansas City, or Nashville, or Detroit, we wouldn't have 24/7 news coverage of the pandemic.
  79. AnotherDad’s program for getting America back up and running:

    Public Health:
    — Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam–jobs go to Americans.
    — Virus officially named “China virus 2019”
    — Mandatory masks in transit, public buildings and grocery stores. All other private businesses work out what’s best.
    — Crash program to produce CPAP machines, oxygen concentrators, zinc tablets and other anti-virals.
    — Continuous competitive vaccine research funded so have infrastructure that’s always “ready to go” at a new threat.
    — Testing and quarantine facilities at ports of entry.
    — Dual use remote quarantine facilities. (Ex. military barracks, housing.)
    — No travel from China.
    — Anyone saying “it’s just the flu bro” is sentenced to spend every evening clubbing with China-virus positives.
    — Anyone whining about “millions dead” is sentenced to spend every evening with their eyes pinned open watching Monty Pyton’s “bring out your dead” skit in continuous loop.

    Economic Revival:
    — Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam — jobs go to Americans.
    — Unemployment extended until rate driven down.
    — Work week cut to 36 hours.
    — Fed’s explicit job is keeping the money supply up. Simply retire (monetize) as much federal debt as necessary.
    — Massive infrastructure spending to jump start economy. Quarantine facilities, roads, water, sewer improvements, etc.
    — Fast as possible, repatriation of core industrial and technological capability.
    — Fast as possible end of China trade.
    — Force trade balance (or desired near balance) through export-credit required for import or direct currency controls.
    — Financial transactions tax of 1/2%. Investment matters. Speculation does not.
    — Push forward on methanol economy, nuclear power, nuclear research including breeders and thorium cycle.
    — No China-virus personal lawsuits. Protect yourself. (We don’t need full employment for lawyers.)
    — SoylentGreen factories opened to deal with the “too many bodies” crisis.

    American Greatness and Social Cohesion:
    — Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam — jobs go to Americans.
    — Voucher off public education. Let parents and educators figure it out.
    — End “Yale or Jail” insanity and jumpstart personal learning. Certification tests for basic literacy, numeracy and in real subject areas at various levels. (No tests for b.s. “studies” degrees … as there is no actually knowledge there.) Feds hire only off exams. End student loans.
    — Any remaining colleges taking public aid, must have freedom of speech (with exceptions noted below).
    — Mandatory short iSteve class in natural selection and HBD required for all children.
    — Restore constitutionally protected, freedom of association. All “discrimination” nonsense repealed.
    — Reparations for slavery. Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
    — Mandatory golf lessons for all children.
    — Anyone mentioning “restricted country clubs” or “Harvard quotes” is deported to Israel. (If Israel doesn’t want them … not our problem!)
    — Huge child non-refundable child tax deduction. (Maybe $20,000?) Productive middle class people with three or four kids would not pay income taxes.
    — Anyone writing or saying “discredited eugenics” or “eugenics” and “Nazis” in the same sentence is flown over the ocean in a helicopter and tossed out. (Eugenic enhancement.)
    — Stocks and/or public whipping for minor criminal offenses.
    — Criminal felons deported to our Devil’s Island–maybe somewhere in the Aleutians. We don’t need or want the thugs. Bye.
    — All Americans are float tested. For every 10 lbs of excess fat (given their size and sex) they must skip eating one day a week–video monitored. Liposuction alternative available.
    — Girls with BAs given mandatory classes in baking cookies.
    — Anyone saying “nation of immigrants” or “crops rotting in the fields” is assigned to pick strawberries to keep JackD happy.
    — Any women yapping about or waving “refugees welcome” signs become comfort women for the single guys doing the actual critical productive labor (farming, mining, drilling, power, industry, etc.)
    — Ban tattoos. China-virus will take care of the fatties … this will remove the other scourge. MABA–Make American Beautiful Again.

    We can do this. MAGA!

    • Agree: Bernard
    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    You're a China-did-it troll. Earning a living typing lies for his masters on a computer. Congratulations.
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    Here is my post-Corona speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkYfmRwryQo

    https://i.pinimg.com/236x/88/c5/8c/88c58ce7a8d4adbc18490d08cf3327c2--calm-quotes-keep-calm.jpg
    , @anon
    Too long

    didn't read.
    , @BenKenobi
    I’m in. I’d prefer a commission but I’ll settle for enlistment if necessary.
    , @anon

    Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
     
    I like this. But obviously one can't pass any legislation only for black citizens. So, it should be generalized to include any citizens. Next, make it a no-profit/no-loss transaction: value of citizenship = EB-5 visa price. Finally, this should be privatized with USCIS acting as an escrow agency between an emigrant and an immigrant. Eventually, when the market is operating well, remove any government price and let the market decide the price between willing emigrants and immigrants. Obviously, government retains the right of refusal for security, health, criminal background etc.,
    , @dfordoom

    — Virus officially named “China virus 2019”
     
    Blaming everything on China is childish. I get it that you're probably one of those right-wingers who is butt hurt that China has been out-competing the US (maybe because China has a competent government and the US doesn't) but it does come across as childish.
  80. @dfordoom

    There seems to be an underlying attitude in too many areas of “Make the Rabble suffer!”.
     
    There's definitely a busybody control freak element to all this. We've been naughty children and Nanny has sent us to bed without our supper. Actually we haven't been naughty - Nanny just likes controlling every aspect of our lives.

    And Nanny does not approve of frivolous nonsense like fun.

    More like Nurse Ratched.

  81. anon[349] • Disclaimer says:

    Dinky town on I – 40 decides to re-open in defiance of governor.

    the tldr
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/let-state-police-come-down-here-new-mexico-mayor-to-defy-state-lockdown-order-by-reopening-city

    Here’s the more expanded form. The Mayor looks like an old hippy who got lost in the 70’s.

    https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Shuttered-Albuquerque-hospital-to-reopen-for-15221164.php#photo-19332752

    Best quote:

    “I’ve told businesses to call 911 if State Police show up to their place. We are going to stop Lujan Grisham and her Gestapo,” Hicks said, referring to the secret police of Nazi Germany.

    Uh oh, reserved word violation! Mere mayors are not allowed to say that!

    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-mexico/articles/2020-04-24/adl-condemns-new-mexico-mayors-nazi-remark-about-governor

    Only thing missing: the mayor of Grants should be on Twitter for proper effect.

  82. @Un Question
    Why is no one addressing Vitamin D3 as preventive (not cure). Fauci et al say heat does not help, but vitamin D is light.

    https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/vitamin-d-does-not-cure-covid-19-but-it-plays-an-important-role-WXQ3XdCWckCeAeBTaXI3ww

    Axios article is argument from authority and chooses its authorities. There are other authorities with differing views, such as Dr. Ioannidis.

    Starting around October and through April, I take 5000 mg of Vit. D daily. There’s probably a reason skin color got whiter the further people migrated from the equator.

    • Agree: Cortes
  83. Earlier today, the Financial Times posted an article on excess deaths in select European countries, Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported.

    [Edit: couldn’t get image to show.]

    For 2020, Denmark, Portugal, Austria, and Sweden are a little higher than normal (+5% to +18%).
    Then Switzerland (29%), France (34%), England/Wales (37%).
    And Netherlands (42%), Spain (51%), Belgium (60%), and Italy (90%).

    It’s not strictly apples to apples, as the final week counted varies from country to country.

    • Replies: @Joe Schmoe
    So these death rates are higher than what?

    Daily averages? Weekly averages? Monthly?

    If it is % higher than x, what is x?

    Also, if it disproportionally kills those with a life expectancy of less than one year, we will run out of our extra large number of those folks such that the the number of deaths can't stay as high as they hve been the past few weeks.
    , @epebble
    There is an interesting anomalous data point from India. India seems to be having negative excess deaths. This is suspected to be mostly due to fewer accidents etc., exceeding Covid deaths. Net result: some funeral homes have lost business!

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-casualties/mortality-rates-drop-sharply-in-parts-of-india-bucking-coronavirus-trend-idUSKCN2260WM
  84. @Gamecockjerry
    "It is just the flu" for a vast majority of the population. The antibody tests of NYC show that if you are under 50 you have a 5 in 100,000 chance of dying. Similar results are found in the many other tests in Miami, LA, etc.

    You are your fellow 'loons' are the reason 100's of thousands of people will die from suicide, depression, abuse, poverty, etc. in the coming years as they can no longer live.

    We can't 'Kill' off the infection. It' s here and will be going forward. Live in fear if that's they way you want to live. I'll see you in a couple of months when you crawl out from under your rock.

    A) You missed the point of my comment.

    B)

    “It is just the flu” for a vast majority of the population.

    The Black Death was “just the flu” for a majority of the population. 2/3 or 3/4 survived and … life was good! Wages went up. (Because they didn’t have “global cosmopolitans” insisting on immigration.)

    China-virus-2019 is simply is not “just the flu”. It’s (ballpark) 10-50x as lethal as the flu. The numbers are in from several places where it had a good run before all the lockdowns. They simply aren’t in dispute among honest people who don’t have some religious commitment to some contrary position.

    However, not being “just the flu” does not mean the lockdown made or makes sense. That was the point of my comment.

    • Agree: ic1000
    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    Well, you're half right. It is not the flu (and the "bro" is how you can tell). New York City just surpassed the 1918 Spanish flu in deaths. So if you want to say it's "just the Spanish flu" then you got something there.

    On the other hand, quarantine is good. It prevents many many people from dying (or having their internal organs excoriated). Calling it a lockdown is ridiculous anyway. My state, for instance is "locked down." But I can drive anywhere I want (which is nowhere). I can walk out my front door and take a walk anywhere. I can go to the grocery store, or, even better, the health food store and the farm market, where they box it up and bag it and leave it on the stoop for me. As to restaurants, restaurants suck. Gastro-intestinal disease heaven. Movies suck. Way way too loud, and people talk in them (loudly, because the movie's so loud) like they think they are encased in sound-resistant foam. Working? You can tell by the term "essential workers" how many people we actually need working in a modern country that is fully automated, and how many jobs are just busy-work. National income is simple and cheap and perfectly do-able, and eminently preferable to millions of people driving all over the place just to type on computers and call it work.
    , @Polynikes

    where it had a good run before all the lockdowns
     
    That’s called cherry picking the data.
  85. @moshe
    I just posted a lengthy comment/ open letter to AnotherDad.

    If you approach it with an open mind it may change your thoughts and feelings about this panic entirely.

    And for the better, happier, and more useful.

    I gained a lot by writing it. I hope and believe that even if you think I am wrong on some small points - and even if I am actually wrong on some lesser points (as I may be bound to be within such a long Open Letter To AnotherDad), or if there are typo or dictation errors, or if some parts seem too numberey or boring or upsetting, please read this. For your sake.

    I just posted a lengthy comment/ open letter to AnotherDad.

    Too long,

    [MORE]

    didn’t read.

  86. @Russ
    I see from Aviation Week that Connecticut has abandoned the plan to have those Canadian drones fly about taking the temperatures of citizens out and about. In the St. Louis area, St. Louis County parks are closed while St. Louis City parks are open.

    There is one town nearby that has begun using drones. That community has certain socioeconomic connections to New York City people, and it was the first one I noticed tallying large numbers of infections after New Rochelle. It fits that they would go the Big Brother route, politically and culturally for them.

  87. @dfordoom

    There seems to be an underlying attitude in too many areas of “Make the Rabble suffer!”.
     
    There's definitely a busybody control freak element to all this. We've been naughty children and Nanny has sent us to bed without our supper. Actually we haven't been naughty - Nanny just likes controlling every aspect of our lives.

    And Nanny does not approve of frivolous nonsense like fun.

    Sorry, but nothing but diversion name-calling.

    Vietnam is a “Nanny State” (which is a term only used by people who know what nannies are, and therefore have no right to speak, because they are rich, and rich fucks can go fuck themselves) and nobody has died. Hurray for Nanny States. Fie on the shithole whatever it is we got.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-23/vietnam-eases-coronavirus-lockdown

  88. @JackOH
    Barber shops and barber schools. I've been getting by with my Wahl Peanut clipper, doing crude work above the ears and above the neck. The hat or cap I usually wear conceals the crudeness, I think. I've attempted haircuts on my own. Electric clippers and razors 'n' mirrors and stuff like that. The results reminded me of why God lifted up barbers from the primordial slime to do barber stuff.

    I think it’s the female half of our population that’s really “suffering” and just dying to get their hair done.

    • Replies: @JackOH
    baythoven, I had a relative who recently video-chatted with her friends, all of them women in their seventies. She told me they talked about their roots. I'm thinking: you mean where Grandpa came from?

    Uh, no.
  89. @AnotherDad
    A) You missed the point of my comment.

    B)

    “It is just the flu” for a vast majority of the population.
     
    The Black Death was "just the flu" for a majority of the population. 2/3 or 3/4 survived and ... life was good! Wages went up. (Because they didn't have "global cosmopolitans" insisting on immigration.)

    China-virus-2019 is simply is not "just the flu". It's (ballpark) 10-50x as lethal as the flu. The numbers are in from several places where it had a good run before all the lockdowns. They simply aren't in dispute among honest people who don't have some religious commitment to some contrary position.


    However, not being "just the flu" does not mean the lockdown made or makes sense. That was the point of my comment.

    Well, you’re half right. It is not the flu (and the “bro” is how you can tell). New York City just surpassed the 1918 Spanish flu in deaths. So if you want to say it’s “just the Spanish flu” then you got something there.

    On the other hand, quarantine is good. It prevents many many people from dying (or having their internal organs excoriated). Calling it a lockdown is ridiculous anyway. My state, for instance is “locked down.” But I can drive anywhere I want (which is nowhere). I can walk out my front door and take a walk anywhere. I can go to the grocery store, or, even better, the health food store and the farm market, where they box it up and bag it and leave it on the stoop for me. As to restaurants, restaurants suck. Gastro-intestinal disease heaven. Movies suck. Way way too loud, and people talk in them (loudly, because the movie’s so loud) like they think they are encased in sound-resistant foam. Working? You can tell by the term “essential workers” how many people we actually need working in a modern country that is fully automated, and how many jobs are just busy-work. National income is simple and cheap and perfectly do-able, and eminently preferable to millions of people driving all over the place just to type on computers and call it work.

    • Replies: @Travis
    The lockdown is foolish for the reasons listed...people can still take the crowded subways, busses and go to grocery stores, liquor stores yet they are banned from the open parks.

    The 1918 pandemic was worse because it killed mostly younger people. Mortality was high in people younger than 40. The high mortality in healthy people was a unique feature of this pandemic. The fractional mortality increase was highest among teenagers during the first wave. This peak shifted to 25- to 29-year-olds in subsequent waves. The distribution of age-specific mortality during the last three waves was strongly correlated. An estimated total of 41,188 people, or ˜0·7% of the NYC population, died due to the Spanish flu pandemic.

    The Wahu flu has killed 390 New Yorkers under the age of 40 compared to 33,512 killed under the age of 40 during the Spanish flu epidemic
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4082668/table/tbl1/?report=objectonly
  90. @AnotherDad
    AnotherDad's program for getting America back up and running:


    Public Health:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam--jobs go to Americans.
    -- Virus officially named "China virus 2019"
    -- Mandatory masks in transit, public buildings and grocery stores. All other private businesses work out what's best.
    -- Crash program to produce CPAP machines, oxygen concentrators, zinc tablets and other anti-virals.
    -- Continuous competitive vaccine research funded so have infrastructure that's always "ready to go" at a new threat.
    -- Testing and quarantine facilities at ports of entry.
    -- Dual use remote quarantine facilities. (Ex. military barracks, housing.)
    -- No travel from China.
    -- Anyone saying "it's just the flu bro" is sentenced to spend every evening clubbing with China-virus positives.
    -- Anyone whining about "millions dead" is sentenced to spend every evening with their eyes pinned open watching Monty Pyton's "bring out your dead" skit in continuous loop.

    Economic Revival:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Unemployment extended until rate driven down.
    -- Work week cut to 36 hours.
    -- Fed's explicit job is keeping the money supply up. Simply retire (monetize) as much federal debt as necessary.
    -- Massive infrastructure spending to jump start economy. Quarantine facilities, roads, water, sewer improvements, etc.
    -- Fast as possible, repatriation of core industrial and technological capability.
    -- Fast as possible end of China trade.
    -- Force trade balance (or desired near balance) through export-credit required for import or direct currency controls.
    -- Financial transactions tax of 1/2%. Investment matters. Speculation does not.
    -- Push forward on methanol economy, nuclear power, nuclear research including breeders and thorium cycle.
    -- No China-virus personal lawsuits. Protect yourself. (We don't need full employment for lawyers.)
    -- SoylentGreen factories opened to deal with the "too many bodies" crisis.

    American Greatness and Social Cohesion:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Voucher off public education. Let parents and educators figure it out.
    -- End "Yale or Jail" insanity and jumpstart personal learning. Certification tests for basic literacy, numeracy and in real subject areas at various levels. (No tests for b.s. "studies" degrees ... as there is no actually knowledge there.) Feds hire only off exams. End student loans.
    -- Any remaining colleges taking public aid, must have freedom of speech (with exceptions noted below).
    -- Mandatory short iSteve class in natural selection and HBD required for all children.
    -- Restore constitutionally protected, freedom of association. All "discrimination" nonsense repealed.
    -- Reparations for slavery. Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
    -- Mandatory golf lessons for all children.
    -- Anyone mentioning "restricted country clubs" or "Harvard quotes" is deported to Israel. (If Israel doesn't want them ... not our problem!)
    -- Huge child non-refundable child tax deduction. (Maybe $20,000?) Productive middle class people with three or four kids would not pay income taxes.
    -- Anyone writing or saying "discredited eugenics" or "eugenics" and "Nazis" in the same sentence is flown over the ocean in a helicopter and tossed out. (Eugenic enhancement.)
    -- Stocks and/or public whipping for minor criminal offenses.
    -- Criminal felons deported to our Devil's Island--maybe somewhere in the Aleutians. We don't need or want the thugs. Bye.
    -- All Americans are float tested. For every 10 lbs of excess fat (given their size and sex) they must skip eating one day a week--video monitored. Liposuction alternative available.
    -- Girls with BAs given mandatory classes in baking cookies.
    -- Anyone saying "nation of immigrants" or "crops rotting in the fields" is assigned to pick strawberries to keep JackD happy.
    -- Any women yapping about or waving "refugees welcome" signs become comfort women for the single guys doing the actual critical productive labor (farming, mining, drilling, power, industry, etc.)
    -- Ban tattoos. China-virus will take care of the fatties ... this will remove the other scourge. MABA--Make American Beautiful Again.

    We can do this. MAGA!

    You’re a China-did-it troll. Earning a living typing lies for his masters on a computer. Congratulations.

  91. @AnotherDad
    AnotherDad's program for getting America back up and running:


    Public Health:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam--jobs go to Americans.
    -- Virus officially named "China virus 2019"
    -- Mandatory masks in transit, public buildings and grocery stores. All other private businesses work out what's best.
    -- Crash program to produce CPAP machines, oxygen concentrators, zinc tablets and other anti-virals.
    -- Continuous competitive vaccine research funded so have infrastructure that's always "ready to go" at a new threat.
    -- Testing and quarantine facilities at ports of entry.
    -- Dual use remote quarantine facilities. (Ex. military barracks, housing.)
    -- No travel from China.
    -- Anyone saying "it's just the flu bro" is sentenced to spend every evening clubbing with China-virus positives.
    -- Anyone whining about "millions dead" is sentenced to spend every evening with their eyes pinned open watching Monty Pyton's "bring out your dead" skit in continuous loop.

    Economic Revival:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Unemployment extended until rate driven down.
    -- Work week cut to 36 hours.
    -- Fed's explicit job is keeping the money supply up. Simply retire (monetize) as much federal debt as necessary.
    -- Massive infrastructure spending to jump start economy. Quarantine facilities, roads, water, sewer improvements, etc.
    -- Fast as possible, repatriation of core industrial and technological capability.
    -- Fast as possible end of China trade.
    -- Force trade balance (or desired near balance) through export-credit required for import or direct currency controls.
    -- Financial transactions tax of 1/2%. Investment matters. Speculation does not.
    -- Push forward on methanol economy, nuclear power, nuclear research including breeders and thorium cycle.
    -- No China-virus personal lawsuits. Protect yourself. (We don't need full employment for lawyers.)
    -- SoylentGreen factories opened to deal with the "too many bodies" crisis.

    American Greatness and Social Cohesion:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Voucher off public education. Let parents and educators figure it out.
    -- End "Yale or Jail" insanity and jumpstart personal learning. Certification tests for basic literacy, numeracy and in real subject areas at various levels. (No tests for b.s. "studies" degrees ... as there is no actually knowledge there.) Feds hire only off exams. End student loans.
    -- Any remaining colleges taking public aid, must have freedom of speech (with exceptions noted below).
    -- Mandatory short iSteve class in natural selection and HBD required for all children.
    -- Restore constitutionally protected, freedom of association. All "discrimination" nonsense repealed.
    -- Reparations for slavery. Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
    -- Mandatory golf lessons for all children.
    -- Anyone mentioning "restricted country clubs" or "Harvard quotes" is deported to Israel. (If Israel doesn't want them ... not our problem!)
    -- Huge child non-refundable child tax deduction. (Maybe $20,000?) Productive middle class people with three or four kids would not pay income taxes.
    -- Anyone writing or saying "discredited eugenics" or "eugenics" and "Nazis" in the same sentence is flown over the ocean in a helicopter and tossed out. (Eugenic enhancement.)
    -- Stocks and/or public whipping for minor criminal offenses.
    -- Criminal felons deported to our Devil's Island--maybe somewhere in the Aleutians. We don't need or want the thugs. Bye.
    -- All Americans are float tested. For every 10 lbs of excess fat (given their size and sex) they must skip eating one day a week--video monitored. Liposuction alternative available.
    -- Girls with BAs given mandatory classes in baking cookies.
    -- Anyone saying "nation of immigrants" or "crops rotting in the fields" is assigned to pick strawberries to keep JackD happy.
    -- Any women yapping about or waving "refugees welcome" signs become comfort women for the single guys doing the actual critical productive labor (farming, mining, drilling, power, industry, etc.)
    -- Ban tattoos. China-virus will take care of the fatties ... this will remove the other scourge. MABA--Make American Beautiful Again.

    We can do this. MAGA!

    Here is my post-Corona speech:

  92. @JMcG
    Just like the government shutdown during which that insufferable prick Obama made sure to shut down national forests and parks. I hope everyone’s eyes are being opened as to whose side law enforcement is on.

    I hope everyone’s eyes are being opened as to whose side law enforcement is on.

    LEOs care about their gold plated pensions they can collect after 20 years on the job. No sides involved.

  93. @Alfa158
    I’ve been watching the IMHE site that tracks cases and deaths and projects the trends to identify the “peak”.
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
    They appear to update their data and projections about twice a week and we are now inside the part of the projection where there should be a visible downward trend. The next couple of updates should be critical. There has been some chatter that we are going to plateau for quite a while rather than be past a peak, and waiting for the next winter spike. There are a lot of carriers judging from the New York and Florida tests of asymptomatic people, but still about 20% at most, so we have a ways to go to so-called herd immunity.
    We aren’t going to have the literal lockdown of people in their residences that you described and was implemented in the Wuhan core. That would only happen in a democracy if we had a pandemic with the 1/3 to 2/3 kill rate of the Black Death. Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza. I think smallpox eventually got to that state. Raging epidemics still devastated previously unexposed populations, but Europeans occasionally got it but survived. A lot of famous people like George Washington had the scars that were left out of their portraits. Maybe somebody here who is more familiar with that history can comment.

    Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza.

    Alfa158 i basically agree with this. I’ve said from the beginning that a likely come down here is–baring a “one shot” vaccine–that this thing is around “forever”. (Meaning for decades until our medical knowledge is such we’re whacking out all such disease.) And it’s possible people would get their yearly SARS vaccine–a guess at this year’s strain–like they get a yearly flu vaccine.

    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was “jus the flu”.

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.

    This idea “actions have consequences–i.e. change outcomes–i did not think was beyond the comprehension of commenters here, but apparently it is for some.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    ... attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys...
     
    I don't know how many really think or even say "it's just the flu." That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.

    The Wuhan Flu is indeed like a flu virus, only more contagious. It seems to have a mortality rate below 1%, and those deaths happen overwhelmingly to people with prior weaknesses. Even "just the flu" kills more indiscriminately, young and old, strong and weak. It happens every year.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.

    You have not seen the true cost of this shutdown. Do you want to be called a "It's just a shutdown" boy? Because this is not just a precautionary shutdown. It is potentially the destruction of our currency, our jobs, our livelihoods and even our freedoms.

    Let us have a balanced discussion, here on the dialectical Unz Review as we should. It is hardly happening anywhere else.

    Oh, and BTW, please explain Sweden.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/#001

    , @Mr. Anon

    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was “jus the flu”.
     
    And you seem to fall into the camp of "It's just a police-state, bro" or "It's just a depression, bro".

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.
     
    And, after-all, whatever the chicoms do must always be a necessary, proportionate (cough - Great Leap Forward - cough), rational (cough - Cultural Revolution - cough), sane, and reasonable (cough - Laogai prisoner organ-harvesting - cough) response.
    , @Kyle
    If this virus is going to be around forever then by definition the lockdown hasn’t done anything and can’t do anything.
    , @Alfa158
    I’m hoping that we do see that peak in the data, and it does actually drop off as shown in the dotted lines of the projections.
    However one thing I learned in business is that hope is not a plan, and even in my retirement, seeing that dotted line of projected trends on a graph of actual data, induces a combination of fear and sardonic laughter in me.

    I liked your program for getting America up and running, even though I’m an immigrant. When I was a kid, my parents waited 10 freaking years to work their way up the list and get carefully vetted and rationed green cards to come in. For years afterwards we were required to file a form very year reporting where we were living so the government could keep track of us in case things didn’t work out. We have seen how open borders worked for the Siberian-Americans who previously occupied North America but I think the people keeping the borders open don’t see that as a bug,

    BTW, if by chance you become emperor and implement your plan, can I still buy European cars?
  94. @unit472
    They just re-0pened the public boat ramps in Manatee County. They closed them in a fit of pique at citizens congregating on the water though its pretty hard not to socially distance when you are sitting in a fiberglass hull on an undulating surface. Besides there is a breeze and sunshine so its not a lot different than putting the top down on your car and going for a drive. Besides the ban only affected those who did not have private boat slips. It was just a hateful decree by bureaucrats offended by the sight of people out on Sarasota Bay instead of staying cooped up in their home.

    Heading to Siesta right now, they closed public beach to the water line until 4:45. So you can’t walk entire beach. Moronic, random edicts.

  95. JPL is going to sterilize the world from coronavirus, one room at a time. Here is Fridays presentation to President Trump:

    • Replies: @Kyle
    He doesn’t answer DJT’s poignant question. Can you breathe it in? He gives a half answer, but that isn’t satisfactory to me. No you can not breathe it in.
    , @anon
    Can you believe this is a month old? https://local.theonion.com/man-just-buying-one-of-every-cleaning-product-in-case-t-1842493766
  96. @AnotherDad

    Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza.
     
    Alfa158 i basically agree with this. I've said from the beginning that a likely come down here is--baring a "one shot" vaccine--that this thing is around "forever". (Meaning for decades until our medical knowledge is such we're whacking out all such disease.) And it's possible people would get their yearly SARS vaccine--a guess at this year's strain--like they get a yearly flu vaccine.


    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the "it's just the flu, bro" boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was "jus the flu".

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.

    This idea "actions have consequences--i.e. change outcomes--i did not think was beyond the comprehension of commenters here, but apparently it is for some.

    … attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys…

    I don’t know how many really think or even say “it’s just the flu.” That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.

    The Wuhan Flu is indeed like a flu virus, only more contagious. It seems to have a mortality rate below 1%, and those deaths happen overwhelmingly to people with prior weaknesses. Even “just the flu” kills more indiscriminately, young and old, strong and weak. It happens every year.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.

    You have not seen the true cost of this shutdown. Do you want to be called a “It’s just a shutdown” boy? Because this is not just a precautionary shutdown. It is potentially the destruction of our currency, our jobs, our livelihoods and even our freedoms.

    Let us have a balanced discussion, here on the dialectical Unz Review as we should. It is hardly happening anywhere else.

    Oh, and BTW, please explain Sweden.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/#001

    • Replies: @Kyle
    It’s not like the flu. It’s like sars, except Sars attacked everyone’s lungs directly. Sars-2 colonizes the throat first before the lungs, and spreads because people don’t realize they’re sick
    , @Alexander Turok
    Yes, it's just a shutdown, bro. Everything that's essential for life is still being produced. What about the people who lost their jobs? They're getting unemployment, so they can still buy it all. There are honestly who honestly believe that people are gonna starve to death if we don't reopen the hair salons because they cannot comprehend the idea of redistributing wealth.
    , @unit472
    What is 'Sweden' an example of? It has a covid death rate almost 50% higher than the US and, given its population is supposedly much healthier than that of the US it should be lower. I admit that the data between nations varies wildly and maybe due to lying or the inability to properly measure but that should not be a problem for Sweden so I assume it just has more people per capita dying than the US.

    Sweden reported 463 new cases today which terrible given its population size and its ratio of cases to total recovered is equally horrible.

    , @Hail

    please explain Sweden
     
    I think I can explain Sweden:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/coronavirus-epidemic-2020-in-sweden-deaths-and-icu-intakes-march-1-to-april-22.png

    The vertical bars are seven-day windows, weeks starting Sunday, for your analysis convenience.

    Sweden Vindicated (in "Just The Flu" Vindicated):

    The obvious thing to note here is that Deaths are on the decline, as are ICU intakes to a lesser extent.

    We have now (April 25) completed the eighth week of the epidemic as it shows up in the numbers, ICU-intakes and deaths; there is a slight data lag. You can see that the peak of the epidemic was between the middle of the fifth week and the middle of the seventh week.

    Of interest: This data-set further suggests that the epidemic-curve for this flu virus, the virus’ circulation in the population, started no later than mid-February, or early February, likely at least two weeks before the first confirmed case, making for eleven weeks total of the epidemic to the present, which is about the usual for a flu-virus epidemic to run through and start to fade.

    Maybe there were still earlier infections, but the familiar epidemic-arc can be dated to starting its upward move about that time, early-/mid-February, the exact circumstances of which are for specialists to study in the future.

    The obvious good news is that Sweden is seeing no Corona Apocalypse and will not see one, as the discredited, pro-Panic alarmists behind the Imperial College paper claimed, leading to one of the worst, most destructive policy blunders of the century.
     
    Sweden, explained:

    The Wuhan Coronavirus is a flu virus that ran its normal course, in Sweden, and in the US and elsewhere, in Q1 and into Q2 2020. It looks exactly like every other flu virus in its epidemic arc. What it does not look like is a Zombie Apocalypse Virus. There was no need for this panicked overreaction.

    I still see no alternative but to basically blame the media, but am open to other ideas.
    , @AnotherDad

    I don’t know how many really think or even say “it’s just the flu.” That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.
     
    No. I'm not dismissing such concerns. Words have meaning.

    "Just the flu" and "Bad cost/benefit" are two separate things.

    And yes, there are a number of commenters here who really do argue that it's "just the flu". That it's death rate is no different ... blah, blah, blah. It's ridiculous. The wave packet is collapsed.

    We may get much better therapies. Heck we may drive the IFR to zero. But with the typical medical care starting out and a roughly US (age, obesity, health) population distribution, there's a clear floor of IFR around 0.2-0.3% and most places have come in significantly above that 0.5-1.0%.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.
     
    Agree, we do not have adequate data to precisely tease out the effects of seasonality from the behavioral changes (both personally chosen and government mandated).

    However, the fact that this thing absolutely rocketed off to the races in late March and early April when a typical seasonal flu will be collapsing is another demonstration of it not being "just the flu".

    I don't know whether in some alternative universe where no one has had exposure to the flu whether this thing would be more contagious. However, here on this planet, facing a basically completely naive population, it does spread more rapidly than the flu. (For most flu strains at least some people have prior exposure to at least some of flu's antigens.)

    And the fact that it was roaring forward exponentially in March, but has slowed considerably by mid-April ... yet had only infected maybe 5% of Americans, is pretty poweful evidence that the behavioral changes are primarily responsible for slowing it down. The weather change is not dramatic over that three or four weeks. There is no reason to believe that without the behavioral changes (isolation) that the US infection rate wouldn't be 5-10x--25-50%--with deaths to match.

    What the "just the flu" boys do is double counting. The want to complain about the lockdown. (And are effectively complaining about behavioral changes people made on their own.) But then they use the effect of the lockdown--much, much lower rates of infection and death--to argue that it's "just the flu".

    Arguing the cost-benefit of the lockdown is wrong--totally valid.

    Arguing that "it's just the flu", when it's only "just the flu" in terms of deaths because we locked down and dramatically slowed it's spread--totally bogus.

    Whatever you think about the response, "just the flu" is nonsense.
  97. @Buzz Mohawk
    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks. It is normally so empty anyway that once in a while someone will bring a horse in a trailer, let it out in the parking lot, and ride it along the water's edge. It's beautiful if you happen to be one of the five or six other people there on the sand to see it.

    Corona-chan is why we can't have nice things anymore.

    https://www.travisneighborward.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Sunset-Horse-Ride-by-Sandy-and-Chuck-Harris-Flickr-1024x630.jpg

    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks.

    It makes perfect sense if the goal of the whole undertaking is to demoralize people, make them feel isolated, and accustom them to the arbitrary exercise of governmental power. As Orwell said (I may be paraphrasing here): The purpose of toture IS torture.

  98. @AnotherDad

    Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza.
     
    Alfa158 i basically agree with this. I've said from the beginning that a likely come down here is--baring a "one shot" vaccine--that this thing is around "forever". (Meaning for decades until our medical knowledge is such we're whacking out all such disease.) And it's possible people would get their yearly SARS vaccine--a guess at this year's strain--like they get a yearly flu vaccine.


    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the "it's just the flu, bro" boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was "jus the flu".

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.

    This idea "actions have consequences--i.e. change outcomes--i did not think was beyond the comprehension of commenters here, but apparently it is for some.

    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was “jus the flu”.

    And you seem to fall into the camp of “It’s just a police-state, bro” or “It’s just a depression, bro”.

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.

    And, after-all, whatever the chicoms do must always be a necessary, proportionate (cough – Great Leap Forward – cough), rational (cough – Cultural Revolution – cough), sane, and reasonable (cough – Laogai prisoner organ-harvesting – cough) response.

    • LOL: vhrm, Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    Reading comprehension Mr. Anon. Work on it.

    The technical parameters of the disease--what does it do? what are symptoms? how contagious is it? how is it contagious? who is getting hit hard? how lethal is it with current medical care?--those things are more or less "facts".

    The appropriate policy response based on all that and our values, laws and legal rights that is something else.
  99. @AnonAnon
    Lol, LA drove down to OC beaches today. I saw the news interview a guy who came down from Sacramento. There is much hand wringing and tut-tutting in LA and SF media over how we’re all going to die now. Screw you, Newsom.

    https://twitter.com/farbod_e/status/1253873315367620608?s=21

    Who is Farbod Esnaashari? Why is he lecturing us Americans on how to live?

    • Agree: Kyle
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    Americans are always lecturing Iranians about how to run their country, so it seems fair.

    Western charities often find it difficult to convince poor Africans to use malaria nets. Perhaps the Africans are right to reject such advice, after all, it comes from a foreign land. Probably from 'white males.' And the Nazis were right to reject "Jewish science."
  100. @AnotherDad

    Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza.
     
    Alfa158 i basically agree with this. I've said from the beginning that a likely come down here is--baring a "one shot" vaccine--that this thing is around "forever". (Meaning for decades until our medical knowledge is such we're whacking out all such disease.) And it's possible people would get their yearly SARS vaccine--a guess at this year's strain--like they get a yearly flu vaccine.


    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the "it's just the flu, bro" boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was "jus the flu".

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.

    This idea "actions have consequences--i.e. change outcomes--i did not think was beyond the comprehension of commenters here, but apparently it is for some.

    If this virus is going to be around forever then by definition the lockdown hasn’t done anything and can’t do anything.

    • Replies: @anon
    It is a delevering mechanism; This example below might help:

    A Beretta M9, has a typical bullet mass of 0.008 kilogram and a typical muzzle velocity of 400 meters per second. Multiply these two numbers together and you get a bullet momentum of about 3.2 kgm/s. In contrast, A car has a mass of about 1500 kg. Inching at a speed of 25mm/s (1 inch per second) it has a momentum of 38 kgm/s. But, if a car traveling at 1 inch per second were to plow into a crowd of people without ever putting on its brakes, it will NOT do the damage of a single bullet, let alone 10.

    If you use Kinetic Energy for calculation (proper way to measure collision damage), KE of bullet is 640 joules, For the car to equal this, it will be creeping at 2 miles per hour; still too small to hurt, let alone kill
     
  101. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    It sounds nice there. My log cabin was Upstate by one of the little lakes extending from the Finger Lakes. People up there wish the world didn't think "New York" just means that giant city. The city is not New York.

    That is a city that dominates media and has an outsized influence on perceptions of what America is and what is going here. If not for the NYC-centric domination of the story, Corona-chan would be far less of an American panic than it is. Notice that NYC's Corona experience is entirely different from the rest of us.

    Gee, maybe New York City isn't normal. Maybe we should not listen to it so much.

    Nah!

    I imagine local leaders down here in Connecticut reasoned that people with too much time and not enough space would flock to places like the one you describe up your way. So, they closed the beaches that normally are empty during the cool months. I don't agree with it, but that has to be the only logic to it. Either that or just dumb power held by the usual dumb people who make dumb decisions because they can.

    perceptions of what America is

    I know well educated people from other countries (this is pre-internet era) being surprised that people in U.S. live in ordinary single story ranch homes. Many get their visual info from Hollywood and equate views of Manhattan and other major metro skylines with America.

  102. @Buzz Mohawk
    It sounds nice there. My log cabin was Upstate by one of the little lakes extending from the Finger Lakes. People up there wish the world didn't think "New York" just means that giant city. The city is not New York.

    That is a city that dominates media and has an outsized influence on perceptions of what America is and what is going here. If not for the NYC-centric domination of the story, Corona-chan would be far less of an American panic than it is. Notice that NYC's Corona experience is entirely different from the rest of us.

    Gee, maybe New York City isn't normal. Maybe we should not listen to it so much.

    Nah!

    I imagine local leaders down here in Connecticut reasoned that people with too much time and not enough space would flock to places like the one you describe up your way. So, they closed the beaches that normally are empty during the cool months. I don't agree with it, but that has to be the only logic to it. Either that or just dumb power held by the usual dumb people who make dumb decisions because they can.

    I think the New York City area – NYC and nearby areas in New Jersey – account for about half the coronavirus deaths (or should I say, half the deaths attributed to coronavirus). If instead, half the coronavirus deaths were happening in and around Kansas City, or Nashville, or Detroit, we wouldn’t have 24/7 news coverage of the pandemic.

    • Agree: Travis, XYZ (no Mr.)
  103. @AnotherDad
    JS, we had the same nonsense in Brevard until last week.

    You couldn't just ... sit there. But you could just sit there ... if you had a fishing pole.

    But i don't want to be too hard on the manager and commission as they held out against the insanity and at least did not close up. Don't want to even think about how long my "HoneyDo" list would be now if AnotherMom hadn't been getting in her beach walks.

    But ... now you can sit on the beach. You're welcome to hop in your car and drive on down. No parking open at the beach, but you're welcome to park in my driveway and walk over as iSteve commenter courtesy.

    Always happy to see the Space Coast on iSteve

  104. @Buzz Mohawk

    ... attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys...
     
    I don't know how many really think or even say "it's just the flu." That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.

    The Wuhan Flu is indeed like a flu virus, only more contagious. It seems to have a mortality rate below 1%, and those deaths happen overwhelmingly to people with prior weaknesses. Even "just the flu" kills more indiscriminately, young and old, strong and weak. It happens every year.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.

    You have not seen the true cost of this shutdown. Do you want to be called a "It's just a shutdown" boy? Because this is not just a precautionary shutdown. It is potentially the destruction of our currency, our jobs, our livelihoods and even our freedoms.

    Let us have a balanced discussion, here on the dialectical Unz Review as we should. It is hardly happening anywhere else.

    Oh, and BTW, please explain Sweden.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/#001

    It’s not like the flu. It’s like sars, except Sars attacked everyone’s lungs directly. Sars-2 colonizes the throat first before the lungs, and spreads because people don’t realize they’re sick

  105. @danand
    JPL is going to sterilize the world from coronavirus, one room at a time. Here is Fridays presentation to President Trump:

    https://youtu.be/2__aJpDHgWA

    He doesn’t answer DJT’s poignant question. Can you breathe it in? He gives a half answer, but that isn’t satisfactory to me. No you can not breathe it in.

  106. easter was 2 weeks ago–how was our “9/11”, “pearl harbor” moment?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-united-states-coronavirus-outbreak/

    where they thinking just for NY, the center of the universe, or for America in general?

  107. @Hail
    Who is Farbod Esnaashari? Why is he lecturing us Americans on how to live?

    Americans are always lecturing Iranians about how to run their country, so it seems fair.

    Western charities often find it difficult to convince poor Africans to use malaria nets. Perhaps the Africans are right to reject such advice, after all, it comes from a foreign land. Probably from ‘white males.’ And the Nazis were right to reject “Jewish science.”

    • Troll: Manfred Arcane
  108. @AnonAnon
    Lol, LA drove down to OC beaches today. I saw the news interview a guy who came down from Sacramento. There is much hand wringing and tut-tutting in LA and SF media over how we’re all going to die now. Screw you, Newsom.

    https://twitter.com/farbod_e/status/1253873315367620608?s=21

    What ever happened to everyone who supported the Iraq war? You almost always hear, ‘no, I was opposed to it from the beginning.’ All the supporters seem to have vanished into thin air, phew.

    I think they’re still here. Still making the same arguments, “oh, Michael Moore opposes this course of action, you don’t want to agree with Michael Moore, do you?”

  109. One point to be kept in mind about the “opening up” controversy here is that no one is requiring anyone, over or under age 60, to travel to parks, beaches, zoos or other public spaces.

    Or, if and when, to attend sporting events, plays, concerts, restaurants, etc.

    There may or may not a slightly increased risk for stay-at-homes from contact with necessary strangers (delivery people, etc.) if opening up things actually increase the flu transmission.

    If that happens, we will know soon enough. Otherwise, within a week or so in most places (unlike NYC or a few crowded cities) personal risk choice will be sufficient to protect the public at large. You might not want to take crowded public transport, but again, you can stay at home.

    Until there are enough a) random large tests for positive antibodies and b) accurate test results, and c) and few other scientific details resolved such as persistence of post infection immunity, it will be mostly guesswork about what is absolutely necessary. By now we have enough info for people to assume their own risks. Schools won’t reopen until fall anyway.

    This flu is bad stuff, worse than anything recent. Very transmissible. But how dangerous and widespread is open to question. Most adults can take their own chances. Or stay home.

  110. @danand
    JPL is going to sterilize the world from coronavirus, one room at a time. Here is Fridays presentation to President Trump:

    https://youtu.be/2__aJpDHgWA
  111. @AnotherDad

    Therefore, the plateau theory is that with our current measures Covid will gradually continue to spread, but at a rate our medical resources can handle, until almost everyone has been exposed and the 1% or whatever of the population that is most vulnerable to it is killed off. (Barring development of effective anti-virals or vaccines).
    Covid would therefore persist as a background problem like pneumonia or influenza.
     
    Alfa158 i basically agree with this. I've said from the beginning that a likely come down here is--baring a "one shot" vaccine--that this thing is around "forever". (Meaning for decades until our medical knowledge is such we're whacking out all such disease.) And it's possible people would get their yearly SARS vaccine--a guess at this year's strain--like they get a yearly flu vaccine.


    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the "it's just the flu, bro" boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was "jus the flu".

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.

    This idea "actions have consequences--i.e. change outcomes--i did not think was beyond the comprehension of commenters here, but apparently it is for some.

    I’m hoping that we do see that peak in the data, and it does actually drop off as shown in the dotted lines of the projections.
    However one thing I learned in business is that hope is not a plan, and even in my retirement, seeing that dotted line of projected trends on a graph of actual data, induces a combination of fear and sardonic laughter in me.

    I liked your program for getting America up and running, even though I’m an immigrant. When I was a kid, my parents waited 10 freaking years to work their way up the list and get carefully vetted and rationed green cards to come in. For years afterwards we were required to file a form very year reporting where we were living so the government could keep track of us in case things didn’t work out. We have seen how open borders worked for the Siberian-Americans who previously occupied North America but I think the people keeping the borders open don’t see that as a bug,

    BTW, if by chance you become emperor and implement your plan, can I still buy European cars?

  112. @Ozymandias

    And the World Health Organization said today there is “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection
     
    But is there any evidence antibodies don't protect you from a second infection? There's certainly a wealth of evidence that the WHO is a bag of crap.

    Oz, I may be totally wrong, but doesn’t a vaccine work by helping your body to develop antibodies? So isn’t this like your body making its own vaccine?

  113. @Buzz Mohawk

    ... attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys...
     
    I don't know how many really think or even say "it's just the flu." That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.

    The Wuhan Flu is indeed like a flu virus, only more contagious. It seems to have a mortality rate below 1%, and those deaths happen overwhelmingly to people with prior weaknesses. Even "just the flu" kills more indiscriminately, young and old, strong and weak. It happens every year.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.

    You have not seen the true cost of this shutdown. Do you want to be called a "It's just a shutdown" boy? Because this is not just a precautionary shutdown. It is potentially the destruction of our currency, our jobs, our livelihoods and even our freedoms.

    Let us have a balanced discussion, here on the dialectical Unz Review as we should. It is hardly happening anywhere else.

    Oh, and BTW, please explain Sweden.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/#001

    Yes, it’s just a shutdown, bro. Everything that’s essential for life is still being produced. What about the people who lost their jobs? They’re getting unemployment, so they can still buy it all. There are honestly who honestly believe that people are gonna starve to death if we don’t reopen the hair salons because they cannot comprehend the idea of redistributing wealth.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    A lot of people are going to be ruined financially and a few nimble interests are going to make out like bandits.
    , @Hail

    What about the people who lost their jobs? They’re getting unemployment, so they can still buy it all
     
    Is Alexander Turok a troll?

    Honest question.

  114. @Buzz Mohawk

    ... attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys...
     
    I don't know how many really think or even say "it's just the flu." That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.

    The Wuhan Flu is indeed like a flu virus, only more contagious. It seems to have a mortality rate below 1%, and those deaths happen overwhelmingly to people with prior weaknesses. Even "just the flu" kills more indiscriminately, young and old, strong and weak. It happens every year.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.

    You have not seen the true cost of this shutdown. Do you want to be called a "It's just a shutdown" boy? Because this is not just a precautionary shutdown. It is potentially the destruction of our currency, our jobs, our livelihoods and even our freedoms.

    Let us have a balanced discussion, here on the dialectical Unz Review as we should. It is hardly happening anywhere else.

    Oh, and BTW, please explain Sweden.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/#001

    What is ‘Sweden’ an example of? It has a covid death rate almost 50% higher than the US and, given its population is supposedly much healthier than that of the US it should be lower. I admit that the data between nations varies wildly and maybe due to lying or the inability to properly measure but that should not be a problem for Sweden so I assume it just has more people per capita dying than the US.

    Sweden reported 463 new cases today which terrible given its population size and its ratio of cases to total recovered is equally horrible.

    • Disagree: Hail
    • Replies: @epebble
    There is a lot of innumeracy in reporting statistics. People are using absolute numbers to draw shocking conclusions. Reality is different:

    Countries in worst to best order measured by deaths per million:

    Belgium 612
    Spain 496
    Italy 441
    France 350
    U.K. 305
    Netherlands 261
    Ireland 220
    Sweden 217
    Switzerland 186
    USA 167


    Rest of the world Less than 20

    The worst country for Covid deaths is Belgium, not USA.
    , @leterip

    Sweden reported 463 new cases today which terrible given its population size and its ratio of cases to total recovered is equally horrible.
     
    It is has been very difficult for people to understand that Sweden is actually quite happy with the statistic you quote above. They believe a high infection rate, in the non vulnerable population, a feature , not a bug.

    Hopefully you will spend some time understanding their strategy because it is the only one that makes any sense whatsoever. In addition, Sweden's model predictions are the only ones that appear to have been even remotely correct.

    Here are my predictions on Sweden.
    -In a few weeks Stockholm will see a drastically decreased daily death rate without ever implementing a lockdown. This will be because Stockholm will have achieved herd immunity and they, therefore, can stop most of their already minimal social distancing practices.
    -By the end of summer most of the rest of Sweden will also have reached herd immunity and then, for Sweden, the ongoing impact of Covid will be negligible. They will be almost completely free of restrictions going forward. They will be in a very enviable position vs the rest of the world.
    -Their mortality rate will be roughly average as compared to other Western countries in short term and in the long term will be lower than average.
    -Their economy will be the least damaged.
    -Their chief epidemiologist will be a cult hero.

    Hopefully in next few months, other countries will finally realize their blunder, and start taking the Swedish approach ... allowing immunity by infection vs waiting for a vaccine.
    , @Polynikes
    Are people still looking at total cases? Irregularities in testing make it a meaningless stat. Their hospitalizations are going down.
  115. @Anon87
    How easy is it to spot bald eagles there? I can never seem to see them locally or up in ADK.

    Anon, don’t know where you live but there is a parking spot on Rte 77 north where it splits from Rte 63 in the Town of Alabama. Drive about a mile and a half and you come to a sizeable parking area. Pull up to the log guard rail and straight ahead, maybe 400 yards, high in a tree, is the nest. Bald eagle nests are huge, like a LaZyBoy recliner in full recline. The is also a nesting platform atop a nearby telephone pole on Rte 77, a pair of Osprey nest there. Lots of fish and waterfowl for the raptors.

    • Replies: @Anon87
    I'll be coming from the East, so thank you for the directions!
  116. It is my birthday so I am going to post this again for those who missed (it if Steve allows me)….A guy is lying on a hospital bed with a breathing mask, preliminary diagnosis, COVID-19. A nurse walks into the room and asks, “How are you doing?” Guy says, “Are my testicles black?” The nurse says, “Pardon me.” Guys says, “I am really worried. I am very concerned. Could you check to see it my testicles are black?” Nurse says, “Ok,” pulls down the sheet, lifts up his gown, moves his manhood to one side, cradles his nuts in her hand and says,”They look fine to me.” Guy pull down the mask and says…”I am going to slowly say this one more time, are my test results back?”

    • LOL: vhrm
  117. Hail says: • Website
    @Buzz Mohawk

    ... attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys...
     
    I don't know how many really think or even say "it's just the flu." That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.

    The Wuhan Flu is indeed like a flu virus, only more contagious. It seems to have a mortality rate below 1%, and those deaths happen overwhelmingly to people with prior weaknesses. Even "just the flu" kills more indiscriminately, young and old, strong and weak. It happens every year.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.

    You have not seen the true cost of this shutdown. Do you want to be called a "It's just a shutdown" boy? Because this is not just a precautionary shutdown. It is potentially the destruction of our currency, our jobs, our livelihoods and even our freedoms.

    Let us have a balanced discussion, here on the dialectical Unz Review as we should. It is hardly happening anywhere else.

    Oh, and BTW, please explain Sweden.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/#001

    please explain Sweden

    I think I can explain Sweden:

    The vertical bars are seven-day windows, weeks starting Sunday, for your analysis convenience.

    Sweden Vindicated (in “Just The Flu” Vindicated):

    The obvious thing to note here is that Deaths are on the decline, as are ICU intakes to a lesser extent.

    We have now (April 25) completed the eighth week of the epidemic as it shows up in the numbers, ICU-intakes and deaths; there is a slight data lag. You can see that the peak of the epidemic was between the middle of the fifth week and the middle of the seventh week.

    Of interest: This data-set further suggests that the epidemic-curve for this flu virus, the virus’ circulation in the population, started no later than mid-February, or early February, likely at least two weeks before the first confirmed case, making for eleven weeks total of the epidemic to the present, which is about the usual for a flu-virus epidemic to run through and start to fade.

    Maybe there were still earlier infections, but the familiar epidemic-arc can be dated to starting its upward move about that time, early-/mid-February, the exact circumstances of which are for specialists to study in the future.

    The obvious good news is that Sweden is seeing no Corona Apocalypse and will not see one, as the discredited, pro-Panic alarmists behind the Imperial College paper claimed, leading to one of the worst, most destructive policy blunders of the century.

    Sweden, explained:

    The Wuhan Coronavirus is a flu virus that ran its normal course, in Sweden, and in the US and elsewhere, in Q1 and into Q2 2020. It looks exactly like every other flu virus in its epidemic arc. What it does not look like is a Zombie Apocalypse Virus. There was no need for this panicked overreaction.

    I still see no alternative but to basically blame the media, but am open to other ideas.

  118. @Buffalo Joe
    Anon, don't know where you live but there is a parking spot on Rte 77 north where it splits from Rte 63 in the Town of Alabama. Drive about a mile and a half and you come to a sizeable parking area. Pull up to the log guard rail and straight ahead, maybe 400 yards, high in a tree, is the nest. Bald eagle nests are huge, like a LaZyBoy recliner in full recline. The is also a nesting platform atop a nearby telephone pole on Rte 77, a pair of Osprey nest there. Lots of fish and waterfowl for the raptors.

    I’ll be coming from the East, so thank you for the directions!

  119. @Charles
    I have been giving myself haircuts for going on ten years, but I don't have a hairstyle - I just cut it as close to the scalp as possible without being a skinhead. A month or so later I do it again. The $20 electric clippers I bought all those years ago still work fine.

    I went the other way. I’ve had a mullet ponytail for a couple of years. It’s about six inches and growing, but nobody on Zoom seems to notice.

  120. @AnotherDad
    AnotherDad's program for getting America back up and running:


    Public Health:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam--jobs go to Americans.
    -- Virus officially named "China virus 2019"
    -- Mandatory masks in transit, public buildings and grocery stores. All other private businesses work out what's best.
    -- Crash program to produce CPAP machines, oxygen concentrators, zinc tablets and other anti-virals.
    -- Continuous competitive vaccine research funded so have infrastructure that's always "ready to go" at a new threat.
    -- Testing and quarantine facilities at ports of entry.
    -- Dual use remote quarantine facilities. (Ex. military barracks, housing.)
    -- No travel from China.
    -- Anyone saying "it's just the flu bro" is sentenced to spend every evening clubbing with China-virus positives.
    -- Anyone whining about "millions dead" is sentenced to spend every evening with their eyes pinned open watching Monty Pyton's "bring out your dead" skit in continuous loop.

    Economic Revival:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Unemployment extended until rate driven down.
    -- Work week cut to 36 hours.
    -- Fed's explicit job is keeping the money supply up. Simply retire (monetize) as much federal debt as necessary.
    -- Massive infrastructure spending to jump start economy. Quarantine facilities, roads, water, sewer improvements, etc.
    -- Fast as possible, repatriation of core industrial and technological capability.
    -- Fast as possible end of China trade.
    -- Force trade balance (or desired near balance) through export-credit required for import or direct currency controls.
    -- Financial transactions tax of 1/2%. Investment matters. Speculation does not.
    -- Push forward on methanol economy, nuclear power, nuclear research including breeders and thorium cycle.
    -- No China-virus personal lawsuits. Protect yourself. (We don't need full employment for lawyers.)
    -- SoylentGreen factories opened to deal with the "too many bodies" crisis.

    American Greatness and Social Cohesion:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Voucher off public education. Let parents and educators figure it out.
    -- End "Yale or Jail" insanity and jumpstart personal learning. Certification tests for basic literacy, numeracy and in real subject areas at various levels. (No tests for b.s. "studies" degrees ... as there is no actually knowledge there.) Feds hire only off exams. End student loans.
    -- Any remaining colleges taking public aid, must have freedom of speech (with exceptions noted below).
    -- Mandatory short iSteve class in natural selection and HBD required for all children.
    -- Restore constitutionally protected, freedom of association. All "discrimination" nonsense repealed.
    -- Reparations for slavery. Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
    -- Mandatory golf lessons for all children.
    -- Anyone mentioning "restricted country clubs" or "Harvard quotes" is deported to Israel. (If Israel doesn't want them ... not our problem!)
    -- Huge child non-refundable child tax deduction. (Maybe $20,000?) Productive middle class people with three or four kids would not pay income taxes.
    -- Anyone writing or saying "discredited eugenics" or "eugenics" and "Nazis" in the same sentence is flown over the ocean in a helicopter and tossed out. (Eugenic enhancement.)
    -- Stocks and/or public whipping for minor criminal offenses.
    -- Criminal felons deported to our Devil's Island--maybe somewhere in the Aleutians. We don't need or want the thugs. Bye.
    -- All Americans are float tested. For every 10 lbs of excess fat (given their size and sex) they must skip eating one day a week--video monitored. Liposuction alternative available.
    -- Girls with BAs given mandatory classes in baking cookies.
    -- Anyone saying "nation of immigrants" or "crops rotting in the fields" is assigned to pick strawberries to keep JackD happy.
    -- Any women yapping about or waving "refugees welcome" signs become comfort women for the single guys doing the actual critical productive labor (farming, mining, drilling, power, industry, etc.)
    -- Ban tattoos. China-virus will take care of the fatties ... this will remove the other scourge. MABA--Make American Beautiful Again.

    We can do this. MAGA!

    Too long

    [MORE]

    didn’t read.

  121. @JackOH
    Barber shops and barber schools. I've been getting by with my Wahl Peanut clipper, doing crude work above the ears and above the neck. The hat or cap I usually wear conceals the crudeness, I think. I've attempted haircuts on my own. Electric clippers and razors 'n' mirrors and stuff like that. The results reminded me of why God lifted up barbers from the primordial slime to do barber stuff.

    me: #3 on the sides #5 on top.

  122. @ic1000
    Earlier today, the Financial Times posted an article on excess deaths in select European countries, Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported.

    [Edit: couldn't get image to show.]

    For 2020, Denmark, Portugal, Austria, and Sweden are a little higher than normal (+5% to +18%).
    Then Switzerland (29%), France (34%), England/Wales (37%).
    And Netherlands (42%), Spain (51%), Belgium (60%), and Italy (90%).

    It's not strictly apples to apples, as the final week counted varies from country to country.

    So these death rates are higher than what?

    Daily averages? Weekly averages? Monthly?

    If it is % higher than x, what is x?

    Also, if it disproportionally kills those with a life expectancy of less than one year, we will run out of our extra large number of those folks such that the the number of deaths can’t stay as high as they hve been the past few weeks.

    • Replies: @ic1000
    Sorry, Joe, the graphic (that I couldn't embed) supplied answers to some of those questions.

    Excess death percentages refer to 2020 totals to date, over a historical average.

    > if it disproportionally kills those with a life expectancy of less than one year, we will run out of our extra large number of those folks

    Yes, that's the sort of question that should be answerable, though complicated (somebody would have to curate the record for each death, and the assigned life expectancy would be debated). But it's good to have data on excess deaths, that's a start.
  123. @Alexander Turok
    Yes, it's just a shutdown, bro. Everything that's essential for life is still being produced. What about the people who lost their jobs? They're getting unemployment, so they can still buy it all. There are honestly who honestly believe that people are gonna starve to death if we don't reopen the hair salons because they cannot comprehend the idea of redistributing wealth.

    A lot of people are going to be ruined financially and a few nimble interests are going to make out like bandits.

  124. @Alexander Turok
    Yes, it's just a shutdown, bro. Everything that's essential for life is still being produced. What about the people who lost their jobs? They're getting unemployment, so they can still buy it all. There are honestly who honestly believe that people are gonna starve to death if we don't reopen the hair salons because they cannot comprehend the idea of redistributing wealth.

    What about the people who lost their jobs? They’re getting unemployment, so they can still buy it all

    Is Alexander Turok a troll?

    Honest question.

    • Replies: @Manfred Arcane
    Yes. I think he might be the same troll who's been banned multiple times from sci-fi writer John C. Wright's blog for spouting Communist propaganda and using it to start endless futile arguments. Turok's obsession with wealth redistribution and his comic-book screen name (there's a
    lot of comic talk at Wright's) make me suspect he's the same guy.
  125. @AnotherDad
    AnotherDad's program for getting America back up and running:


    Public Health:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam--jobs go to Americans.
    -- Virus officially named "China virus 2019"
    -- Mandatory masks in transit, public buildings and grocery stores. All other private businesses work out what's best.
    -- Crash program to produce CPAP machines, oxygen concentrators, zinc tablets and other anti-virals.
    -- Continuous competitive vaccine research funded so have infrastructure that's always "ready to go" at a new threat.
    -- Testing and quarantine facilities at ports of entry.
    -- Dual use remote quarantine facilities. (Ex. military barracks, housing.)
    -- No travel from China.
    -- Anyone saying "it's just the flu bro" is sentenced to spend every evening clubbing with China-virus positives.
    -- Anyone whining about "millions dead" is sentenced to spend every evening with their eyes pinned open watching Monty Pyton's "bring out your dead" skit in continuous loop.

    Economic Revival:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Unemployment extended until rate driven down.
    -- Work week cut to 36 hours.
    -- Fed's explicit job is keeping the money supply up. Simply retire (monetize) as much federal debt as necessary.
    -- Massive infrastructure spending to jump start economy. Quarantine facilities, roads, water, sewer improvements, etc.
    -- Fast as possible, repatriation of core industrial and technological capability.
    -- Fast as possible end of China trade.
    -- Force trade balance (or desired near balance) through export-credit required for import or direct currency controls.
    -- Financial transactions tax of 1/2%. Investment matters. Speculation does not.
    -- Push forward on methanol economy, nuclear power, nuclear research including breeders and thorium cycle.
    -- No China-virus personal lawsuits. Protect yourself. (We don't need full employment for lawyers.)
    -- SoylentGreen factories opened to deal with the "too many bodies" crisis.

    American Greatness and Social Cohesion:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Voucher off public education. Let parents and educators figure it out.
    -- End "Yale or Jail" insanity and jumpstart personal learning. Certification tests for basic literacy, numeracy and in real subject areas at various levels. (No tests for b.s. "studies" degrees ... as there is no actually knowledge there.) Feds hire only off exams. End student loans.
    -- Any remaining colleges taking public aid, must have freedom of speech (with exceptions noted below).
    -- Mandatory short iSteve class in natural selection and HBD required for all children.
    -- Restore constitutionally protected, freedom of association. All "discrimination" nonsense repealed.
    -- Reparations for slavery. Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
    -- Mandatory golf lessons for all children.
    -- Anyone mentioning "restricted country clubs" or "Harvard quotes" is deported to Israel. (If Israel doesn't want them ... not our problem!)
    -- Huge child non-refundable child tax deduction. (Maybe $20,000?) Productive middle class people with three or four kids would not pay income taxes.
    -- Anyone writing or saying "discredited eugenics" or "eugenics" and "Nazis" in the same sentence is flown over the ocean in a helicopter and tossed out. (Eugenic enhancement.)
    -- Stocks and/or public whipping for minor criminal offenses.
    -- Criminal felons deported to our Devil's Island--maybe somewhere in the Aleutians. We don't need or want the thugs. Bye.
    -- All Americans are float tested. For every 10 lbs of excess fat (given their size and sex) they must skip eating one day a week--video monitored. Liposuction alternative available.
    -- Girls with BAs given mandatory classes in baking cookies.
    -- Anyone saying "nation of immigrants" or "crops rotting in the fields" is assigned to pick strawberries to keep JackD happy.
    -- Any women yapping about or waving "refugees welcome" signs become comfort women for the single guys doing the actual critical productive labor (farming, mining, drilling, power, industry, etc.)
    -- Ban tattoos. China-virus will take care of the fatties ... this will remove the other scourge. MABA--Make American Beautiful Again.

    We can do this. MAGA!

    I’m in. I’d prefer a commission but I’ll settle for enlistment if necessary.

  126. anon[221] • Disclaimer says:

    Down the rabbit hole. A technique to treat a variety of infections in the upper respiratory tract is being tested at Cedars Sinai. It involves threading a tube into the tracheal passage, and apparently illuminating internal tissue with UV light. Seems legit, might work, should not be controversial.

    Video explaining the technique was posted to YouTube, which took it down for unknown TOS violations. Then the vid was reposted. It was taken down again. It was posted to Vimeo, but now it doesn’t exist there either.

    Text:

    Led by Mark Pimentel, MD, the research team of the Medically Associated Science and Technology (MAST) Program at Cedars-Sinai has been developing the patent-pending Healight platform since 2016 and has produced a growing body of scientific evidence demonstrating pre-clinical safety and effectiveness of the technology as an antiviral and antibacterial treatment. The Healight technology employs proprietary methods of administering intermittent ultraviolet (UV) A light via a novel endotracheal medical device. Pre-clinical findings indicate the technology’s significant impact on eradicating a wide range of viruses and bacteria, inclusive of coronavirus. The data have been the basis of discussions with the FDA for a near-term path to enable human use for the potential treatment of coronavirus in intubated patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Beyond the initial pursuit of a coronavirus ICU indication, additional data suggest broader clinical applications for the technology across a range of viral and bacterial pathogens. This includes bacteria implicated in ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP).

    So good news, right? But the vids have been pulled from YT and Vimeo. With no explanation. Don’t usually pay attention to these guys, but so far their take holds up.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/youtube-takes-bio-tech-firms-video-explaining-potential-uv-light-treatment-coronavirus-patients/

    What’s so dangerous about an experimental technique to deal with respiratory infections that it must be suppressed on vid channels?

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    There are a lot of Healight videos on Youtube.
  127. Oh noes! The most douchenozzle-y store in the entire country has fallen on hard times! It’s the end of civilization as we know it.
    https://ny.eater.com/2020/4/24/21233441/park-slope-food-coop-line-grocery-coronavirus

  128. @Jonathan Silber
    I can't help but notice, try as I might, the similarity of coronavirus to common flu.

    I can’t help but notice, try as I might, the similarity of coronavirus to common flu.

    In what respect? Have you had both?

  129. @anon
    Down the rabbit hole. A technique to treat a variety of infections in the upper respiratory tract is being tested at Cedars Sinai. It involves threading a tube into the tracheal passage, and apparently illuminating internal tissue with UV light. Seems legit, might work, should not be controversial.

    Video explaining the technique was posted to YouTube, which took it down for unknown TOS violations. Then the vid was reposted. It was taken down again. It was posted to Vimeo, but now it doesn't exist there either.

    Text:


    Led by Mark Pimentel, MD, the research team of the Medically Associated Science and Technology (MAST) Program at Cedars-Sinai has been developing the patent-pending Healight platform since 2016 and has produced a growing body of scientific evidence demonstrating pre-clinical safety and effectiveness of the technology as an antiviral and antibacterial treatment. The Healight technology employs proprietary methods of administering intermittent ultraviolet (UV) A light via a novel endotracheal medical device. Pre-clinical findings indicate the technology’s significant impact on eradicating a wide range of viruses and bacteria, inclusive of coronavirus. The data have been the basis of discussions with the FDA for a near-term path to enable human use for the potential treatment of coronavirus in intubated patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Beyond the initial pursuit of a coronavirus ICU indication, additional data suggest broader clinical applications for the technology across a range of viral and bacterial pathogens. This includes bacteria implicated in ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP).
     
    So good news, right? But the vids have been pulled from YT and Vimeo. With no explanation. Don't usually pay attention to these guys, but so far their take holds up.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/youtube-takes-bio-tech-firms-video-explaining-potential-uv-light-treatment-coronavirus-patients/

    What's so dangerous about an experimental technique to deal with respiratory infections that it must be suppressed on vid channels?

    There are a lot of Healight videos on Youtube.

    • Replies: @anon
    There are a lot of Healight videos on Youtube.

    All I'm finding is vidcaps of a Trump presser plus a couple of fanvids less than 2 min long. Maybe my search is inferior.

    Got a URL?

  130. @Hail

    What about the people who lost their jobs? They’re getting unemployment, so they can still buy it all
     
    Is Alexander Turok a troll?

    Honest question.

    Yes. I think he might be the same troll who’s been banned multiple times from sci-fi writer John C. Wright’s blog for spouting Communist propaganda and using it to start endless futile arguments. Turok’s obsession with wealth redistribution and his comic-book screen name (there’s a
    lot of comic talk at Wright’s) make me suspect he’s the same guy.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    Plenty of people support wealth redistribution. About half of Republicans favor higher taxes on the wealthy. We're not some communist fringe.
  131. @Joe Schmoe
    So these death rates are higher than what?

    Daily averages? Weekly averages? Monthly?

    If it is % higher than x, what is x?

    Also, if it disproportionally kills those with a life expectancy of less than one year, we will run out of our extra large number of those folks such that the the number of deaths can't stay as high as they hve been the past few weeks.

    Sorry, Joe, the graphic (that I couldn’t embed) supplied answers to some of those questions.

    Excess death percentages refer to 2020 totals to date, over a historical average.

    > if it disproportionally kills those with a life expectancy of less than one year, we will run out of our extra large number of those folks

    Yes, that’s the sort of question that should be answerable, though complicated (somebody would have to curate the record for each death, and the assigned life expectancy would be debated). But it’s good to have data on excess deaths, that’s a start.

  132. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad
    AnotherDad's program for getting America back up and running:


    Public Health:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam--jobs go to Americans.
    -- Virus officially named "China virus 2019"
    -- Mandatory masks in transit, public buildings and grocery stores. All other private businesses work out what's best.
    -- Crash program to produce CPAP machines, oxygen concentrators, zinc tablets and other anti-virals.
    -- Continuous competitive vaccine research funded so have infrastructure that's always "ready to go" at a new threat.
    -- Testing and quarantine facilities at ports of entry.
    -- Dual use remote quarantine facilities. (Ex. military barracks, housing.)
    -- No travel from China.
    -- Anyone saying "it's just the flu bro" is sentenced to spend every evening clubbing with China-virus positives.
    -- Anyone whining about "millions dead" is sentenced to spend every evening with their eyes pinned open watching Monty Pyton's "bring out your dead" skit in continuous loop.

    Economic Revival:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Unemployment extended until rate driven down.
    -- Work week cut to 36 hours.
    -- Fed's explicit job is keeping the money supply up. Simply retire (monetize) as much federal debt as necessary.
    -- Massive infrastructure spending to jump start economy. Quarantine facilities, roads, water, sewer improvements, etc.
    -- Fast as possible, repatriation of core industrial and technological capability.
    -- Fast as possible end of China trade.
    -- Force trade balance (or desired near balance) through export-credit required for import or direct currency controls.
    -- Financial transactions tax of 1/2%. Investment matters. Speculation does not.
    -- Push forward on methanol economy, nuclear power, nuclear research including breeders and thorium cycle.
    -- No China-virus personal lawsuits. Protect yourself. (We don't need full employment for lawyers.)
    -- SoylentGreen factories opened to deal with the "too many bodies" crisis.

    American Greatness and Social Cohesion:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Voucher off public education. Let parents and educators figure it out.
    -- End "Yale or Jail" insanity and jumpstart personal learning. Certification tests for basic literacy, numeracy and in real subject areas at various levels. (No tests for b.s. "studies" degrees ... as there is no actually knowledge there.) Feds hire only off exams. End student loans.
    -- Any remaining colleges taking public aid, must have freedom of speech (with exceptions noted below).
    -- Mandatory short iSteve class in natural selection and HBD required for all children.
    -- Restore constitutionally protected, freedom of association. All "discrimination" nonsense repealed.
    -- Reparations for slavery. Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
    -- Mandatory golf lessons for all children.
    -- Anyone mentioning "restricted country clubs" or "Harvard quotes" is deported to Israel. (If Israel doesn't want them ... not our problem!)
    -- Huge child non-refundable child tax deduction. (Maybe $20,000?) Productive middle class people with three or four kids would not pay income taxes.
    -- Anyone writing or saying "discredited eugenics" or "eugenics" and "Nazis" in the same sentence is flown over the ocean in a helicopter and tossed out. (Eugenic enhancement.)
    -- Stocks and/or public whipping for minor criminal offenses.
    -- Criminal felons deported to our Devil's Island--maybe somewhere in the Aleutians. We don't need or want the thugs. Bye.
    -- All Americans are float tested. For every 10 lbs of excess fat (given their size and sex) they must skip eating one day a week--video monitored. Liposuction alternative available.
    -- Girls with BAs given mandatory classes in baking cookies.
    -- Anyone saying "nation of immigrants" or "crops rotting in the fields" is assigned to pick strawberries to keep JackD happy.
    -- Any women yapping about or waving "refugees welcome" signs become comfort women for the single guys doing the actual critical productive labor (farming, mining, drilling, power, industry, etc.)
    -- Ban tattoos. China-virus will take care of the fatties ... this will remove the other scourge. MABA--Make American Beautiful Again.

    We can do this. MAGA!

    Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.

    I like this. But obviously one can’t pass any legislation only for black citizens. So, it should be generalized to include any citizens. Next, make it a no-profit/no-loss transaction: value of citizenship = EB-5 visa price. Finally, this should be privatized with USCIS acting as an escrow agency between an emigrant and an immigrant. Eventually, when the market is operating well, remove any government price and let the market decide the price between willing emigrants and immigrants. Obviously, government retains the right of refusal for security, health, criminal background etc.,

    • Agree: AnotherDad
    • Replies: @AnotherDad


    I like this. But obviously one can’t pass any legislation only for black citizens. So, it should be generalized to include any citizens. Next, make it a no-profit/no-loss transaction: value of citizenship = EB-5 visa price. Finally, this should be privatized with USCIS acting as an escrow agency between an emigrant and an immigrant. Eventually, when the market is operating well, remove any government price and let the market decide the price between willing emigrants and immigrants. Obviously, government retains the right of refusal for security, health, criminal background etc.,
     
    Excellent comment 225.

    I even thought of posting it that way--"anyone".

    You're nailing the key point. If immigration is supposedly required to get people in the "right" places, that's still no reason to destroy the value of US citizenship. Just monetize it. Create a market.

    The only thing i'd tack on is that the market needs to have some age and possibly sex criteria as well. A 65 year old bailing out for Mexico to do the Fred Reed, isn't a one for one trade with a fertile young woman. The young woman should have to buy out some young woman deciding to cash her "repartations check". While the oldster can sell off to someone's parents who want to be around their grandkids.
  133. @Ozymandias

    And the World Health Organization said today there is “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection
     
    But is there any evidence antibodies don't protect you from a second infection? There's certainly a wealth of evidence that the WHO is a bag of crap.

    The WHO has already walked back that dumb statement as follows:.

    World Health Organization (WHO)
    @WHO
    · Apr 25
    Earlier today we tweeted about a new WHO scientific brief on “immunity passports”. The thread caused some concern & we would like to clarify:

    We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection.

  134. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kyle
    If this virus is going to be around forever then by definition the lockdown hasn’t done anything and can’t do anything.

    It is a delevering mechanism; This example below might help:

    A Beretta M9, has a typical bullet mass of 0.008 kilogram and a typical muzzle velocity of 400 meters per second. Multiply these two numbers together and you get a bullet momentum of about 3.2 kgm/s. In contrast, A car has a mass of about 1500 kg. Inching at a speed of 25mm/s (1 inch per second) it has a momentum of 38 kgm/s. But, if a car traveling at 1 inch per second were to plow into a crowd of people without ever putting on its brakes, it will NOT do the damage of a single bullet, let alone 10.

    If you use Kinetic Energy for calculation (proper way to measure collision damage), KE of bullet is 640 joules, For the car to equal this, it will be creeping at 2 miles per hour; still too small to hurt, let alone kill

  135. @baythoven
    I think it's the female half of our population that's really "suffering" and just dying to get their hair done.

    baythoven, I had a relative who recently video-chatted with her friends, all of them women in their seventies. She told me they talked about their roots. I’m thinking: you mean where Grandpa came from?

    Uh, no.

  136. @ben tillman
    There are a lot of Healight videos on Youtube.

    There are a lot of Healight videos on Youtube.

    All I’m finding is vidcaps of a Trump presser plus a couple of fanvids less than 2 min long. Maybe my search is inferior.

    Got a URL?

  137. @anon

    Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
     
    I like this. But obviously one can't pass any legislation only for black citizens. So, it should be generalized to include any citizens. Next, make it a no-profit/no-loss transaction: value of citizenship = EB-5 visa price. Finally, this should be privatized with USCIS acting as an escrow agency between an emigrant and an immigrant. Eventually, when the market is operating well, remove any government price and let the market decide the price between willing emigrants and immigrants. Obviously, government retains the right of refusal for security, health, criminal background etc.,

    I like this. But obviously one can’t pass any legislation only for black citizens. So, it should be generalized to include any citizens. Next, make it a no-profit/no-loss transaction: value of citizenship = EB-5 visa price. Finally, this should be privatized with USCIS acting as an escrow agency between an emigrant and an immigrant. Eventually, when the market is operating well, remove any government price and let the market decide the price between willing emigrants and immigrants. Obviously, government retains the right of refusal for security, health, criminal background etc.,

    Excellent comment 225.

    I even thought of posting it that way–“anyone”.

    You’re nailing the key point. If immigration is supposedly required to get people in the “right” places, that’s still no reason to destroy the value of US citizenship. Just monetize it. Create a market.

    The only thing i’d tack on is that the market needs to have some age and possibly sex criteria as well. A 65 year old bailing out for Mexico to do the Fred Reed, isn’t a one for one trade with a fertile young woman. The young woman should have to buy out some young woman deciding to cash her “repartations check”. While the oldster can sell off to someone’s parents who want to be around their grandkids.

  138. @unit472
    What is 'Sweden' an example of? It has a covid death rate almost 50% higher than the US and, given its population is supposedly much healthier than that of the US it should be lower. I admit that the data between nations varies wildly and maybe due to lying or the inability to properly measure but that should not be a problem for Sweden so I assume it just has more people per capita dying than the US.

    Sweden reported 463 new cases today which terrible given its population size and its ratio of cases to total recovered is equally horrible.

    There is a lot of innumeracy in reporting statistics. People are using absolute numbers to draw shocking conclusions. Reality is different:

    Countries in worst to best order measured by deaths per million:

    Belgium 612
    Spain 496
    Italy 441
    France 350
    U.K. 305
    Netherlands 261
    Ireland 220
    Sweden 217
    Switzerland 186
    USA 167

    Rest of the world Less than 20

    The worst country for Covid deaths is Belgium, not USA.

    • Replies: @neprof
    If you exclude the deaths in the US residing in the area served by the NYC subway system, USA deaths per million would be around 80.
  139. @unit472
    What is 'Sweden' an example of? It has a covid death rate almost 50% higher than the US and, given its population is supposedly much healthier than that of the US it should be lower. I admit that the data between nations varies wildly and maybe due to lying or the inability to properly measure but that should not be a problem for Sweden so I assume it just has more people per capita dying than the US.

    Sweden reported 463 new cases today which terrible given its population size and its ratio of cases to total recovered is equally horrible.

    Sweden reported 463 new cases today which terrible given its population size and its ratio of cases to total recovered is equally horrible.

    It is has been very difficult for people to understand that Sweden is actually quite happy with the statistic you quote above. They believe a high infection rate, in the non vulnerable population, a feature , not a bug.

    Hopefully you will spend some time understanding their strategy because it is the only one that makes any sense whatsoever. In addition, Sweden’s model predictions are the only ones that appear to have been even remotely correct.

    Here are my predictions on Sweden.
    -In a few weeks Stockholm will see a drastically decreased daily death rate without ever implementing a lockdown. This will be because Stockholm will have achieved herd immunity and they, therefore, can stop most of their already minimal social distancing practices.
    -By the end of summer most of the rest of Sweden will also have reached herd immunity and then, for Sweden, the ongoing impact of Covid will be negligible. They will be almost completely free of restrictions going forward. They will be in a very enviable position vs the rest of the world.
    -Their mortality rate will be roughly average as compared to other Western countries in short term and in the long term will be lower than average.
    -Their economy will be the least damaged.
    -Their chief epidemiologist will be a cult hero.

    Hopefully in next few months, other countries will finally realize their blunder, and start taking the Swedish approach … allowing immunity by infection vs waiting for a vaccine.

    • Replies: @Kaz
    What would happen to Italy if they took the Sweden approach?
  140. @Manfred Arcane
    Yes. I think he might be the same troll who's been banned multiple times from sci-fi writer John C. Wright's blog for spouting Communist propaganda and using it to start endless futile arguments. Turok's obsession with wealth redistribution and his comic-book screen name (there's a
    lot of comic talk at Wright's) make me suspect he's the same guy.

    Plenty of people support wealth redistribution. About half of Republicans favor higher taxes on the wealthy. We’re not some communist fringe.

  141. @AnotherDad
    A) You missed the point of my comment.

    B)

    “It is just the flu” for a vast majority of the population.
     
    The Black Death was "just the flu" for a majority of the population. 2/3 or 3/4 survived and ... life was good! Wages went up. (Because they didn't have "global cosmopolitans" insisting on immigration.)

    China-virus-2019 is simply is not "just the flu". It's (ballpark) 10-50x as lethal as the flu. The numbers are in from several places where it had a good run before all the lockdowns. They simply aren't in dispute among honest people who don't have some religious commitment to some contrary position.


    However, not being "just the flu" does not mean the lockdown made or makes sense. That was the point of my comment.

    where it had a good run before all the lockdowns

    That’s called cherry picking the data.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    That’s called cherry picking the data.
     
    So is life.

    While there are other symptoms, the simplest comparison for severity is simple death rate (IFR). But to calculate any sort of rate you need a number for denominator. Which means you either have to be able to count infections, so either:
    a) get a good test and test a representative sample
    or
    b) find places where it's actually been able to run through most of population so you can use the whole population and the calculated rate will be a floor.

    Everywhere that's been done the IFR (even after age adjustment) is well above 'the flu." Mostly an order of magnitude above. The Miami 0.19% is the only case i've seen within shouting distance (maybe 4x) of "the flu". (And "flu deaths" are at least as inflated. They don't test for the flu either, just count pneumonia cases where it's plausibly "the flu".) And i'm dubious the Miami numbers hold up.


    Bottom line because of people's natural caution plus the lockdown the China virus epidemic has been stomped on. (As has infectious disease generally--everything's down.)

    One could generously--16X the official cases--estimate 5% of the US population has been infected. With 60,000K deaths that's an IFR of 0.36%--again an order of magnitude bigger than "just the flu".

  142. @unit472
    What is 'Sweden' an example of? It has a covid death rate almost 50% higher than the US and, given its population is supposedly much healthier than that of the US it should be lower. I admit that the data between nations varies wildly and maybe due to lying or the inability to properly measure but that should not be a problem for Sweden so I assume it just has more people per capita dying than the US.

    Sweden reported 463 new cases today which terrible given its population size and its ratio of cases to total recovered is equally horrible.

    Are people still looking at total cases? Irregularities in testing make it a meaningless stat. Their hospitalizations are going down.

    • Replies: @Hail
    I've been following Sweden's health ministry's daily updates for new corona-positive deaths and ICU intakes for corona-patients, which are tied to date of death. They are subject to rolling updates, which changes daily totals sometimes a week or more back, but data is 90%-complete by Death+3 days.

    The situation in Sweden is good, which is to say their strategy is working as planned:

    New ICU intakes peaked March 28 to April 13 (17-day window), @ 40 intakes/day (peak day in this window: 46).

    Deaths peaked April 2 to April 18 (17-day window) @ 89 deaths/day (peak-of-peak: April 7-15 @ 97 deaths/day; peak single day: April 7, @ 111 deaths). AFAICT, this is all coronavirus-positive deaths including those already in a terminal state.

    New deaths for period April 20-26 are running at 42.5/day, already less than half the peak period's avg. daily rate; the April 20 to April 30 data, which will be all-but-final with the Monday May 4 update, will likely be closer to 35/day, on the way down further.

    Epidemiological work going back decades shows that seasonal flu strains will tend to cause about a three-week 'hit,' and the Swedish data aligns with that. They are already at levels not even any specialist would notice or care about at all, if it weren't being tracked.

    See also:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/04/19/against-the-corona-panic-pt-iii-just-the-flu-vindicated-by-the-data-or-why-to-end-the-shutdowns-now/#sweden
  143. @ic1000
    Earlier today, the Financial Times posted an article on excess deaths in select European countries, Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported.

    [Edit: couldn't get image to show.]

    For 2020, Denmark, Portugal, Austria, and Sweden are a little higher than normal (+5% to +18%).
    Then Switzerland (29%), France (34%), England/Wales (37%).
    And Netherlands (42%), Spain (51%), Belgium (60%), and Italy (90%).

    It's not strictly apples to apples, as the final week counted varies from country to country.

    There is an interesting anomalous data point from India. India seems to be having negative excess deaths. This is suspected to be mostly due to fewer accidents etc., exceeding Covid deaths. Net result: some funeral homes have lost business!

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-casualties/mortality-rates-drop-sharply-in-parts-of-india-bucking-coronavirus-trend-idUSKCN2260WM

  144. @epebble
    There is a lot of innumeracy in reporting statistics. People are using absolute numbers to draw shocking conclusions. Reality is different:

    Countries in worst to best order measured by deaths per million:

    Belgium 612
    Spain 496
    Italy 441
    France 350
    U.K. 305
    Netherlands 261
    Ireland 220
    Sweden 217
    Switzerland 186
    USA 167


    Rest of the world Less than 20

    The worst country for Covid deaths is Belgium, not USA.

    If you exclude the deaths in the US residing in the area served by the NYC subway system, USA deaths per million would be around 80.

  145. @AnotherDad
    AnotherDad's program for getting America back up and running:


    Public Health:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam--jobs go to Americans.
    -- Virus officially named "China virus 2019"
    -- Mandatory masks in transit, public buildings and grocery stores. All other private businesses work out what's best.
    -- Crash program to produce CPAP machines, oxygen concentrators, zinc tablets and other anti-virals.
    -- Continuous competitive vaccine research funded so have infrastructure that's always "ready to go" at a new threat.
    -- Testing and quarantine facilities at ports of entry.
    -- Dual use remote quarantine facilities. (Ex. military barracks, housing.)
    -- No travel from China.
    -- Anyone saying "it's just the flu bro" is sentenced to spend every evening clubbing with China-virus positives.
    -- Anyone whining about "millions dead" is sentenced to spend every evening with their eyes pinned open watching Monty Pyton's "bring out your dead" skit in continuous loop.

    Economic Revival:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Unemployment extended until rate driven down.
    -- Work week cut to 36 hours.
    -- Fed's explicit job is keeping the money supply up. Simply retire (monetize) as much federal debt as necessary.
    -- Massive infrastructure spending to jump start economy. Quarantine facilities, roads, water, sewer improvements, etc.
    -- Fast as possible, repatriation of core industrial and technological capability.
    -- Fast as possible end of China trade.
    -- Force trade balance (or desired near balance) through export-credit required for import or direct currency controls.
    -- Financial transactions tax of 1/2%. Investment matters. Speculation does not.
    -- Push forward on methanol economy, nuclear power, nuclear research including breeders and thorium cycle.
    -- No China-virus personal lawsuits. Protect yourself. (We don't need full employment for lawyers.)
    -- SoylentGreen factories opened to deal with the "too many bodies" crisis.

    American Greatness and Social Cohesion:
    -- Immigration moratorium, E-verify, deport illegals, end birthright citizenship scam -- jobs go to Americans.
    -- Voucher off public education. Let parents and educators figure it out.
    -- End "Yale or Jail" insanity and jumpstart personal learning. Certification tests for basic literacy, numeracy and in real subject areas at various levels. (No tests for b.s. "studies" degrees ... as there is no actually knowledge there.) Feds hire only off exams. End student loans.
    -- Any remaining colleges taking public aid, must have freedom of speech (with exceptions noted below).
    -- Mandatory short iSteve class in natural selection and HBD required for all children.
    -- Restore constitutionally protected, freedom of association. All "discrimination" nonsense repealed.
    -- Reparations for slavery. Any American black of fertile age given $100,000 to surrender their citizenship and move back to Africa with all their children. $50,000 for post-fertile.
    -- Mandatory golf lessons for all children.
    -- Anyone mentioning "restricted country clubs" or "Harvard quotes" is deported to Israel. (If Israel doesn't want them ... not our problem!)
    -- Huge child non-refundable child tax deduction. (Maybe $20,000?) Productive middle class people with three or four kids would not pay income taxes.
    -- Anyone writing or saying "discredited eugenics" or "eugenics" and "Nazis" in the same sentence is flown over the ocean in a helicopter and tossed out. (Eugenic enhancement.)
    -- Stocks and/or public whipping for minor criminal offenses.
    -- Criminal felons deported to our Devil's Island--maybe somewhere in the Aleutians. We don't need or want the thugs. Bye.
    -- All Americans are float tested. For every 10 lbs of excess fat (given their size and sex) they must skip eating one day a week--video monitored. Liposuction alternative available.
    -- Girls with BAs given mandatory classes in baking cookies.
    -- Anyone saying "nation of immigrants" or "crops rotting in the fields" is assigned to pick strawberries to keep JackD happy.
    -- Any women yapping about or waving "refugees welcome" signs become comfort women for the single guys doing the actual critical productive labor (farming, mining, drilling, power, industry, etc.)
    -- Ban tattoos. China-virus will take care of the fatties ... this will remove the other scourge. MABA--Make American Beautiful Again.

    We can do this. MAGA!

    — Virus officially named “China virus 2019”

    Blaming everything on China is childish. I get it that you’re probably one of those right-wingers who is butt hurt that China has been out-competing the US (maybe because China has a competent government and the US doesn’t) but it does come across as childish.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    Sounds like PRC has already purchased you Aussies.

    Why China's rise exposes Australian vulnerabilities

    7 November 2019

    Australia and China continue to trade accusations and placations in an escalating row with far-reaching consequences. But amid criticisms of Beijing, Australia has long failed to properly scrutinise itself, writes China-Australia expert Kerry Brown.

    Mao Zedong, founder of the People's Republic of China (PRC), reportedly called Australia the "lonely continent". These days, though, going from the recent ups and downs in the bilateral relationship, Australians feel anything but lonely.

    China supplies to Australia a huge and ever-increasing number of tourists, overseas students, and, since 2010, has been the nation's biggest trading partner.

    Its investments have also increased exponentially - but posed increasingly probing problems because of fears by Canberra about security and interference.

    How did we get here?

    In the past decade, Australia has changed national leader five times. For all their differences, prime ministers from Mandarin speaker Kevin Rudd to today's Scott Morrison have had one thing in common - they have all found that dealing with China is never simple.

    This is not through lack of trying to find a model that works. Mr Rudd tried the "true friends speak truth to each other". That fell apart on the shoal of accusations by Beijing that he was actually too close to the US, allowing marine troops to rotate in the northern port of Darwin.

    Julia Gillard tried expanding the canvas to aim for an Asia-wide approach. But the simple fact that China loomed so large in Asia made that hard to implement, and Tony Abbott quickly phased out this approach when he was elected in 2013.

    He attempted to get closer to Japan. It might have worked - had he lasted more than two years in the brutal atmosphere of Canberra, or, for that matter, had Japan really offered a financial proposition remotely as tempting as Beijing's.

    For Malcolm Turnbull, early promise from his years of being a high-level lawyer and strategist of a more pragmatic, balanced relationship was scuppered by allegations local and national politicians had been influenced by Beijing. Anti-interference legislation followed.

    Now Mr Morrison follows the same zig-zag path - tough on China in his language, but needing to accept the brute reality that for the country's future prosperity, China still offers the best potential bet. And as his meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang this week showed, courtesy almost always returns.

    Why is this such an issue?

    After all, when China's President Xi Jinping visited the country in 2014, he stood before the parliament in Canberra and said they needed to be more ambitious and adventurous in their vision towards the PRC. And China liked things like the rule of law, and the institutional predictability of Australia. Why would it seek to disrupt these attributes?

    Part of the problem is simply about size. China's emergence as such a key player, perhaps the key player, for Australia - a nation of a mere 24 million people with vast space around its shores to police, and a navy of only 27,000 - was always going to be disorientating.

    Add to this mix the ways in which this whole phenomenon brings to the fore some deep, but often concealed, vulnerabilities in Australia's national psyche. This is a country that has never, until recently, had to conceive of itself as an Asian one, despite its geographical location.

    Europe was the major source of its migration till recent decades, and America of its security and much of its economic growth. Now Australia is receiving large numbers of new citizens whose families come from the region, including many from China.

    Australian universities are a good case study. Some have many thousands of Chinese students, meaning that these typically liberal institutions are dependent on funding from a stakeholder with very different values.

    A recent Four Corners documentary from the national broadcaster ABC contained almost paranoid claims that a large number of this cohort posed a security risk through their political interference, and the ways they operated potentially as technology spies.

    Canberra to tackle foreign interference in unis
    'I'm in Australia but I feel censored'
    Why universities have upset Chinese students

    There are cases of some academics feeling under pressure on issues like Taiwan, Hong Kong or Xinjiang. The Chinese government and its agents have sometimes acted in a heavy-handed way. Even so, it is easy to see why some Chinese might feel bewildered that their contribution to the coffers of the country in which they are coming to study and gain new skills is interpreted in such an ominous way.

    Challenge for Australia

    The simple fact is that no Australian leader has ever really addressed the other part of the China equation. They have been keen to talk, when it suited them, about the threats posed by this vast and very different new partner in terms of values and world view. But they have been far less keen to talk about the fears of their own country, and the issues it has with itself.

    Only Mr Abbott offered any real insight into this, when in a moment of unscripted candour he stated, off-camera to Angela Merkel, that the Australian attitude to China was typified by "fear and greed".

    Media caption

    In June, the sight of Chinese warships in Sydney Harbour created a local stir

    Australia can eschew investment, students, and opportunities from China, and sometimes does - Huawei is an example. But a wholesale attempt to do this, and seek partnerships in the Indo-Pacific for instance, would mean a big sacrifice, and significant reorientation of its mindset.

    It seems that at the moment Mr Morrison is following the footsteps of his predecessors, and taking a highly contradictory attitude. That might be for the very simple harsh reality that, for all the confident talk of standing up to the China threat, his administration, and his country, has no other option.

    Kerry Brown is professor of Chinese Studies and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London. From 2012 to 2015 he was professor of Chinese politics and director of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50299783

     

  146. Anon[174] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    Corona is the first thing to come along in 50+ years that blasts right through any of the
    privileges of wealth, fame, and electoral and socioeconomic clout. Naturally, Boomers like Gates, Sailer, et. al cannot wrap their heads around it.

    Here is a proposal for Billy Gates and the CDC. Let sporting events continue, packed stadiums and all, but with one exception -- older attendees (55+) and the morbidly obese can't attend. Problem solved.

    Boomer's basically have one year, where we entertain their idiotic notions of "never returning to normal." This has little to do with corona, and more to do with them being an influential voting block in an election year.

    After that, things will return to normal, by society boarding up Boomers in their homes. Problem solved.

    Have you been following the emerging hints that Covid leaves permanent and serious side effects to multiple organs and the brain, results in immunity even shorter than the one year immunity of cold coronaviruses (with the second attacks returning to damaged lungs), and causes strokes, heart attacks, and kidney failure in the young? Fat old people might have the last laugh as they lay dying. At any rate this looks to be one nasty fucker, and it might never go away.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    This is moronic. The relative risk from WuFlu for young, healthy people is negligible when compared to pneumonia, alcohol poisoning, opioids, driving with a cellphone, and basically anything else.

    Everyone knows this, but we aren't supposed to admit it because we're trying to make young people care about Boomers, who themselves haven't cared about young people for the last three decades. And let's be real about it: if this disease were impacting the fat, poor and young in West Virginia, Boomers would joke about it over brunch.

    Boomers will be inevitably culled by WuFlu over the coming years, which is fitting, since they created the world in which it has thrived. Considering what they have done to this country, I'm kind of glad to see it happen, honestly.

  147. @dfordoom

    — Virus officially named “China virus 2019”
     
    Blaming everything on China is childish. I get it that you're probably one of those right-wingers who is butt hurt that China has been out-competing the US (maybe because China has a competent government and the US doesn't) but it does come across as childish.

    Sounds like PRC has already purchased you Aussies.

    Why China’s rise exposes Australian vulnerabilities

    7 November 2019

    Australia and China continue to trade accusations and placations in an escalating row with far-reaching consequences. But amid criticisms of Beijing, Australia has long failed to properly scrutinise itself, writes China-Australia expert Kerry Brown.

    Mao Zedong, founder of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), reportedly called Australia the “lonely continent”. These days, though, going from the recent ups and downs in the bilateral relationship, Australians feel anything but lonely.

    China supplies to Australia a huge and ever-increasing number of tourists, overseas students, and, since 2010, has been the nation’s biggest trading partner.

    Its investments have also increased exponentially – but posed increasingly probing problems because of fears by Canberra about security and interference.

    How did we get here?

    In the past decade, Australia has changed national leader five times. For all their differences, prime ministers from Mandarin speaker Kevin Rudd to today’s Scott Morrison have had one thing in common – they have all found that dealing with China is never simple.

    This is not through lack of trying to find a model that works. Mr Rudd tried the “true friends speak truth to each other”. That fell apart on the shoal of accusations by Beijing that he was actually too close to the US, allowing marine troops to rotate in the northern port of Darwin.

    Julia Gillard tried expanding the canvas to aim for an Asia-wide approach. But the simple fact that China loomed so large in Asia made that hard to implement, and Tony Abbott quickly phased out this approach when he was elected in 2013.

    He attempted to get closer to Japan. It might have worked – had he lasted more than two years in the brutal atmosphere of Canberra, or, for that matter, had Japan really offered a financial proposition remotely as tempting as Beijing’s.

    For Malcolm Turnbull, early promise from his years of being a high-level lawyer and strategist of a more pragmatic, balanced relationship was scuppered by allegations local and national politicians had been influenced by Beijing. Anti-interference legislation followed.

    Now Mr Morrison follows the same zig-zag path – tough on China in his language, but needing to accept the brute reality that for the country’s future prosperity, China still offers the best potential bet. And as his meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang this week showed, courtesy almost always returns.

    Why is this such an issue?

    After all, when China’s President Xi Jinping visited the country in 2014, he stood before the parliament in Canberra and said they needed to be more ambitious and adventurous in their vision towards the PRC. And China liked things like the rule of law, and the institutional predictability of Australia. Why would it seek to disrupt these attributes?

    Part of the problem is simply about size. China’s emergence as such a key player, perhaps the key player, for Australia – a nation of a mere 24 million people with vast space around its shores to police, and a navy of only 27,000 – was always going to be disorientating.

    Add to this mix the ways in which this whole phenomenon brings to the fore some deep, but often concealed, vulnerabilities in Australia’s national psyche. This is a country that has never, until recently, had to conceive of itself as an Asian one, despite its geographical location.

    Europe was the major source of its migration till recent decades, and America of its security and much of its economic growth. Now Australia is receiving large numbers of new citizens whose families come from the region, including many from China.

    Australian universities are a good case study. Some have many thousands of Chinese students, meaning that these typically liberal institutions are dependent on funding from a stakeholder with very different values.

    A recent Four Corners documentary from the national broadcaster ABC contained almost paranoid claims that a large number of this cohort posed a security risk through their political interference, and the ways they operated potentially as technology spies.

    Canberra to tackle foreign interference in unis
    ‘I’m in Australia but I feel censored’
    Why universities have upset Chinese students

    There are cases of some academics feeling under pressure on issues like Taiwan, Hong Kong or Xinjiang. The Chinese government and its agents have sometimes acted in a heavy-handed way. Even so, it is easy to see why some Chinese might feel bewildered that their contribution to the coffers of the country in which they are coming to study and gain new skills is interpreted in such an ominous way.

    Challenge for Australia

    The simple fact is that no Australian leader has ever really addressed the other part of the China equation. They have been keen to talk, when it suited them, about the threats posed by this vast and very different new partner in terms of values and world view. But they have been far less keen to talk about the fears of their own country, and the issues it has with itself.

    Only Mr Abbott offered any real insight into this, when in a moment of unscripted candour he stated, off-camera to Angela Merkel, that the Australian attitude to China was typified by “fear and greed”.

    Media caption

    In June, the sight of Chinese warships in Sydney Harbour created a local stir

    Australia can eschew investment, students, and opportunities from China, and sometimes does – Huawei is an example. But a wholesale attempt to do this, and seek partnerships in the Indo-Pacific for instance, would mean a big sacrifice, and significant reorientation of its mindset.

    It seems that at the moment Mr Morrison is following the footsteps of his predecessors, and taking a highly contradictory attitude. That might be for the very simple harsh reality that, for all the confident talk of standing up to the China threat, his administration, and his country, has no other option.

    Kerry Brown is professor of Chinese Studies and director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College, London. From 2012 to 2015 he was professor of Chinese politics and director of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50299783

  148. @leterip

    Sweden reported 463 new cases today which terrible given its population size and its ratio of cases to total recovered is equally horrible.
     
    It is has been very difficult for people to understand that Sweden is actually quite happy with the statistic you quote above. They believe a high infection rate, in the non vulnerable population, a feature , not a bug.

    Hopefully you will spend some time understanding their strategy because it is the only one that makes any sense whatsoever. In addition, Sweden's model predictions are the only ones that appear to have been even remotely correct.

    Here are my predictions on Sweden.
    -In a few weeks Stockholm will see a drastically decreased daily death rate without ever implementing a lockdown. This will be because Stockholm will have achieved herd immunity and they, therefore, can stop most of their already minimal social distancing practices.
    -By the end of summer most of the rest of Sweden will also have reached herd immunity and then, for Sweden, the ongoing impact of Covid will be negligible. They will be almost completely free of restrictions going forward. They will be in a very enviable position vs the rest of the world.
    -Their mortality rate will be roughly average as compared to other Western countries in short term and in the long term will be lower than average.
    -Their economy will be the least damaged.
    -Their chief epidemiologist will be a cult hero.

    Hopefully in next few months, other countries will finally realize their blunder, and start taking the Swedish approach ... allowing immunity by infection vs waiting for a vaccine.

    What would happen to Italy if they took the Sweden approach?

    • Replies: @leterip
    I believe that Italy or any Western country with a decent medical system would be able to execute the Swedish approach. Sweden is inherently a better organized country than Italy so it may look a bit messier in Italy.

    Until recently, I wondered if a poor country with a minimal medical system might not want to take this approach. Then I was reading that some leaders in India are advocating it based on the fact their vulnerable population is extremely small and the damage the conventional approach is doing to their economy. .
  149. @Known Fact
    There's a theory now that nicotine could help protect you -- was Woody Allen's Sleeper right after all?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/world-about-panic-hoard-nicotine-products-after-frances-promising-coronavirus-study

    Time to get your supply of nicotine. I prefer Swedish Snus , but may start vaping to get more nicotine into my lungs where it can protect my ACE receptors from Coronavirus. Most people can handle the nicotine gum or lozenges. Smokeless tobacco is less costly but has more nicotine , thus will make most people dizzy. The Camel Snus comes in small pouches which are easier to handle for beginners. No need to spit with Snus (rhymes with noose ) because it is dried tobacco , not fermented like snuff which requires users to spit often.

    • Agree: Travis
  150. @Anon
    I fear that the license plate scheme would lead to the "New York Rent a Dog" problem: People would lend out their cars to others. Also, why wouldn't people just swarm in via Uber, or is Uber outlawed?

    Finally, beach openings would most end up as household mixings, which is what lockdown is supposed to prevent. The unit of quarantine is the household, not the family, not the social friend group, not the romantic partner pair. Individual quarantine would be ideal, but the realities of living spaces prevent it. But a lot of people will end up meeting friends at the beach, or picking them up in their last-digit legal cars (observing social distancing ... not).

    So the license plate attempt to create rational, enforceable rules would end up creating end-runs around lock down.

    At some point we may have to throw in the towel and let the big die-off and medical chaos happen if citizens won't obey the rules, but there's still a chance we can salvage things. But more and more I think guns and ammo will turn out to be as much of a must-purchase as a pulse oximeter. Things could start to get nasty between the ghetto birthday partiers, the beach goers, the stay-home Karens, the hunker-down Hanks, and so on. And as the percentage of infected zombies increases I think we can kiss the cops goodbye: The job will be less and less appealing, as with any medical related job.

    I fear that the license plate scheme would lead to the “New York Rent a Dog” problem: People would lend out their cars to others.

    Well most families have more than one, so if one is odd and one is even, you don’t even have to borrow.

    Will there be riots on May 31st?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Just buy two beater cars, same year, same make, same model. Take one to Maaco for the $299 job so both are same color even. Drive one let the other sit as a parts donor or while you tinker at leisure, swap tags as needed. Only one is insured, in states where you can pull that off. In Kansas if you register a car and it goes out of insurance, they suspend your license EVEN IF YOU NEVER DRIVE IT! But if you don't register it you can't get tags. I know guys that do that, have two or three beaters, one is insured, tagged and licensed, they never register the others and they sit in the garage when the one driven has the tag. As long as its only insured for liability, no one is ever going to find out. If you were in a high dollar wreck and the VIN didn't match you might be in trouble, but the old duffers that do this don't care, they figure they'll probably be killed if the wreck is that bad.


    I have a guy a few doors down (in the LOTO area) who does this. He buys these old Chrysler Lebarons. Like late eighties, early nineties ones, gets them for free or scrap value, swaps engines and transaxles out. Always has a fresh engine and trans axle in the garage and a couple running. No one else wants 'em, he knows them really well, has all the dealer tools from when they shut down a lot of dealers in the Obama era. The cops more or less are on to him but he doesn't cause any trouble so they let him slide. The cars won't ever be collectible, not in our lifetimes, but they run okay and parts are not too expensive. A properly rebuilt engine or trans will go maybe 120-150K. Electricals give some trouble, but nothing he can't handle. He drives one to Portland every year to see his kids, so he has confidence in them.
    , @Corvinus
    Thanks to the weekend protesters who are failing the national marshmallow test. So how many of the Covid-19 hoaxers have to contract it and be hospitalized before they give up the "remove the shut down orders and open up the economy at all costs" ghost?
  151. @Buzz Mohawk
    Beaches in Connecticut are closed too.

    This is strange, because nobody spends much time on them this time of year, other than for occasional walks. It is normally so empty anyway that once in a while someone will bring a horse in a trailer, let it out in the parking lot, and ride it along the water's edge. It's beautiful if you happen to be one of the five or six other people there on the sand to see it.

    Corona-chan is why we can't have nice things anymore.

    https://www.travisneighborward.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Sunset-Horse-Ride-by-Sandy-and-Chuck-Harris-Flickr-1024x630.jpg

    Appreciate the gorgeous picture.

  152. @Kaz
    What would happen to Italy if they took the Sweden approach?

    I believe that Italy or any Western country with a decent medical system would be able to execute the Swedish approach. Sweden is inherently a better organized country than Italy so it may look a bit messier in Italy.

    Until recently, I wondered if a poor country with a minimal medical system might not want to take this approach. Then I was reading that some leaders in India are advocating it based on the fact their vulnerable population is extremely small and the damage the conventional approach is doing to their economy. .

  153. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @ScarletNumber

    I fear that the license plate scheme would lead to the “New York Rent a Dog” problem: People would lend out their cars to others.
     
    Well most families have more than one, so if one is odd and one is even, you don't even have to borrow.

    Will there be riots on May 31st?

    Just buy two beater cars, same year, same make, same model. Take one to Maaco for the $299 job so both are same color even. Drive one let the other sit as a parts donor or while you tinker at leisure, swap tags as needed. Only one is insured, in states where you can pull that off. In Kansas if you register a car and it goes out of insurance, they suspend your license EVEN IF YOU NEVER DRIVE IT! But if you don’t register it you can’t get tags. I know guys that do that, have two or three beaters, one is insured, tagged and licensed, they never register the others and they sit in the garage when the one driven has the tag. As long as its only insured for liability, no one is ever going to find out. If you were in a high dollar wreck and the VIN didn’t match you might be in trouble, but the old duffers that do this don’t care, they figure they’ll probably be killed if the wreck is that bad.

    I have a guy a few doors down (in the LOTO area) who does this. He buys these old Chrysler Lebarons. Like late eighties, early nineties ones, gets them for free or scrap value, swaps engines and transaxles out. Always has a fresh engine and trans axle in the garage and a couple running. No one else wants ’em, he knows them really well, has all the dealer tools from when they shut down a lot of dealers in the Obama era. The cops more or less are on to him but he doesn’t cause any trouble so they let him slide. The cars won’t ever be collectible, not in our lifetimes, but they run okay and parts are not too expensive. A properly rebuilt engine or trans will go maybe 120-150K. Electricals give some trouble, but nothing he can’t handle. He drives one to Portland every year to see his kids, so he has confidence in them.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber

    I have a guy a few doors down (in the LOTO area) who does this. He buys these old Chrysler Lebarons.
     
    Jon Voight?
  154. Anonymous[179] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    Have you been following the emerging hints that Covid leaves permanent and serious side effects to multiple organs and the brain, results in immunity even shorter than the one year immunity of cold coronaviruses (with the second attacks returning to damaged lungs), and causes strokes, heart attacks, and kidney failure in the young? Fat old people might have the last laugh as they lay dying. At any rate this looks to be one nasty fucker, and it might never go away.

    This is moronic. The relative risk from WuFlu for young, healthy people is negligible when compared to pneumonia, alcohol poisoning, opioids, driving with a cellphone, and basically anything else.

    Everyone knows this, but we aren’t supposed to admit it because we’re trying to make young people care about Boomers, who themselves haven’t cared about young people for the last three decades. And let’s be real about it: if this disease were impacting the fat, poor and young in West Virginia, Boomers would joke about it over brunch.

    Boomers will be inevitably culled by WuFlu over the coming years, which is fitting, since they created the world in which it has thrived. Considering what they have done to this country, I’m kind of glad to see it happen, honestly.

  155. @Buzz Mohawk

    ... attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys...
     
    I don't know how many really think or even say "it's just the flu." That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.

    The Wuhan Flu is indeed like a flu virus, only more contagious. It seems to have a mortality rate below 1%, and those deaths happen overwhelmingly to people with prior weaknesses. Even "just the flu" kills more indiscriminately, young and old, strong and weak. It happens every year.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.

    You have not seen the true cost of this shutdown. Do you want to be called a "It's just a shutdown" boy? Because this is not just a precautionary shutdown. It is potentially the destruction of our currency, our jobs, our livelihoods and even our freedoms.

    Let us have a balanced discussion, here on the dialectical Unz Review as we should. It is hardly happening anywhere else.

    Oh, and BTW, please explain Sweden.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/#001

    I don’t know how many really think or even say “it’s just the flu.” That phrase and label deceptively serves to diminish real concerns that the measures taken far outweigh the benefits.

    No. I’m not dismissing such concerns. Words have meaning.

    “Just the flu” and “Bad cost/benefit” are two separate things.

    And yes, there are a number of commenters here who really do argue that it’s “just the flu”. That it’s death rate is no different … blah, blah, blah. It’s ridiculous. The wave packet is collapsed.

    We may get much better therapies. Heck we may drive the IFR to zero. But with the typical medical care starting out and a roughly US (age, obesity, health) population distribution, there’s a clear floor of IFR around 0.2-0.3% and most places have come in significantly above that 0.5-1.0%.

    Speaking of every year, you cannot separate out the variables of lockdowns from seasonal changes, and even from the time characteristics of this virus. Yes, yes, yes, we do indeed think distancing and precautions have reduced infections. How could they not? But by how much and at what cost is not yet determined.

    Agree, we do not have adequate data to precisely tease out the effects of seasonality from the behavioral changes (both personally chosen and government mandated).

    However, the fact that this thing absolutely rocketed off to the races in late March and early April when a typical seasonal flu will be collapsing is another demonstration of it not being “just the flu”.

    I don’t know whether in some alternative universe where no one has had exposure to the flu whether this thing would be more contagious. However, here on this planet, facing a basically completely naive population, it does spread more rapidly than the flu. (For most flu strains at least some people have prior exposure to at least some of flu’s antigens.)

    And the fact that it was roaring forward exponentially in March, but has slowed considerably by mid-April … yet had only infected maybe 5% of Americans, is pretty poweful evidence that the behavioral changes are primarily responsible for slowing it down. The weather change is not dramatic over that three or four weeks. There is no reason to believe that without the behavioral changes (isolation) that the US infection rate wouldn’t be 5-10x–25-50%–with deaths to match.

    What the “just the flu” boys do is double counting. The want to complain about the lockdown. (And are effectively complaining about behavioral changes people made on their own.) But then they use the effect of the lockdown–much, much lower rates of infection and death–to argue that it’s “just the flu”.

    Arguing the cost-benefit of the lockdown is wrong–totally valid.

    Arguing that “it’s just the flu”, when it’s only “just the flu” in terms of deaths because we locked down and dramatically slowed it’s spread–totally bogus.

    Whatever you think about the response, “just the flu” is nonsense.

  156. @ScarletNumber

    I fear that the license plate scheme would lead to the “New York Rent a Dog” problem: People would lend out their cars to others.
     
    Well most families have more than one, so if one is odd and one is even, you don't even have to borrow.

    Will there be riots on May 31st?

    Thanks to the weekend protesters who are failing the national marshmallow test. So how many of the Covid-19 hoaxers have to contract it and be hospitalized before they give up the “remove the shut down orders and open up the economy at all costs” ghost?

    • Troll: Manfred Arcane
  157. @Anonymous
    Just buy two beater cars, same year, same make, same model. Take one to Maaco for the $299 job so both are same color even. Drive one let the other sit as a parts donor or while you tinker at leisure, swap tags as needed. Only one is insured, in states where you can pull that off. In Kansas if you register a car and it goes out of insurance, they suspend your license EVEN IF YOU NEVER DRIVE IT! But if you don't register it you can't get tags. I know guys that do that, have two or three beaters, one is insured, tagged and licensed, they never register the others and they sit in the garage when the one driven has the tag. As long as its only insured for liability, no one is ever going to find out. If you were in a high dollar wreck and the VIN didn't match you might be in trouble, but the old duffers that do this don't care, they figure they'll probably be killed if the wreck is that bad.


    I have a guy a few doors down (in the LOTO area) who does this. He buys these old Chrysler Lebarons. Like late eighties, early nineties ones, gets them for free or scrap value, swaps engines and transaxles out. Always has a fresh engine and trans axle in the garage and a couple running. No one else wants 'em, he knows them really well, has all the dealer tools from when they shut down a lot of dealers in the Obama era. The cops more or less are on to him but he doesn't cause any trouble so they let him slide. The cars won't ever be collectible, not in our lifetimes, but they run okay and parts are not too expensive. A properly rebuilt engine or trans will go maybe 120-150K. Electricals give some trouble, but nothing he can't handle. He drives one to Portland every year to see his kids, so he has confidence in them.

    I have a guy a few doors down (in the LOTO area) who does this. He buys these old Chrysler Lebarons.

    Jon Voight?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    About twelve years ago I was walking down the street, and standing outside the Good Earth restaurant waiting for the valet to bring his car around was Jon Voight. He was talking in a congenial fashion with a very good looking younger couple. I was hoping Mr. Voight had reconciled with his daughter Angelina and Brad Pitt, but they turned out to be somebody I didn't recognized. I decided to hang around to see if Mr. Voight was driving a Chrysler LeBaron but after a couple of minutes and the valet still hadn't arrived, I got bored and walked on.
  158. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    Moshe, you appear to have a very high level of patience.

    Mine is just about gone.

    Fact 1: Wuhan is bad -- but mostly for nursing home patients and/or those with raging or a high level of co-morbidities or those who are immuno-compromised.

    Fact 2 : Wuhan is bad -- for those few outliers who do not fall in the categories in Fact 1. But they are outliers.

    Fact 3: Wuhan is NOT bad or tolerably bad -- for most already healthy people.

    Fact 4: The ostensible reason for "shutting" down -- the hospital system being overwhelmed -- has not happened.

    Therefore, this should all end, and right now.

    Right, but in addition to freeing the masses, the elderly need to be protected and, if anyone of importance reads my letter or even has common sense, they’ll see how it is EASY to so so. (And just until a vaccine/treatment/mass immunity(?) is reached.

  159. @ScarletNumber

    I have a guy a few doors down (in the LOTO area) who does this. He buys these old Chrysler Lebarons.
     
    Jon Voight?

    About twelve years ago I was walking down the street, and standing outside the Good Earth restaurant waiting for the valet to bring his car around was Jon Voight. He was talking in a congenial fashion with a very good looking younger couple. I was hoping Mr. Voight had reconciled with his daughter Angelina and Brad Pitt, but they turned out to be somebody I didn’t recognized. I decided to hang around to see if Mr. Voight was driving a Chrysler LeBaron but after a couple of minutes and the valet still hadn’t arrived, I got bored and walked on.

    • Replies: @ScarletNumber
    There is an old expression: Mommy's baby, Daddy's maybe? However, there is no doubt that Angelina is her father's daughter.
  160. @moshe
    Let me concede something to you.

    First, I will ask you to consider tapping the hyperlink of my nom de guerre to get a bit of an idea of how I called this mass hysteria for what it would be (and was and is) from the very start and am slowly being vindicated.

    I say "a bit" because mostly I've how to say the same thing over and over again, and often in generalized simpler terms for simple people. If I had a platform however I would write a solid 15 to 20 pages explaining the details of what I believed and why I believed it - and what, slowly but surely, everyone else but the most die-hard are coming to believe.

    Here's my concession to you AnotherDad.

    Although you and Steve and quite a few other people appear to be highly irrational about this thing as well as dishonest, even dishonest and propagandist in the way of the worst media, you have a very good reason to be tilted that way and even to have more fear than the people who have already come around to my point of view.

    And that is of course because you are more endangered.

    Obviously everything will bias your critical thought toward thinking that it is more dangerous and it is. But, more importantly, you might see things as they actually are and be propagandizing for the obvious reason that your own life is in play.

    Statistically nobody under the age of 60 died from Coronavirus. (Please don't pass on bullshit about coronavirus-caused strokes.) Out of all the deaths, approximately 1 in 25 is of somebody under the age of 60.

    But while (in layman's terms) none number of deaths have been a people under 60 that leaves the much smaller population of people over 60 the shoulder all of the deaths.

    And of course if you're over 70 then you're a member of a much smaller demographic of the population but your demographic is still shouldering ~92% all of the deaths attributed to coronavirus. ((I say "attributed" because I believe that many of the counted deaths were not due to to the virus but to other factors including The Panic ITSELF.))

    That sucks.

    That means that if you're over 70 (needless to say, it's different if you're 70 or 110) you have a 1 in 300 chance of dying from coronavirus.

    That's not nothing.

    If someone 40 years old has only a 1 in 30,000 chance of dying and you have a 1 in 300 then it's pretty easy to see how the two of you can meet as faceless pseudonyms here and come to very different conclusions. (And of course if it causes more deaths than the panic about it, all demographics will find a larger percentage of them dead. This will probably still mean almost nothing to people 40 or under - about a third of whom in metropolitan areas already have it.)

    Now there may be good news for you (unless the following applies which would mean that this is bad news, in which case, for those people for whom this actually is bad news I apologize. but it won't be many, because the people for whom this is bad news generally are not typing on blogs).

    The good news is two-fold.

    Firstly, if you are not in a nursing home your chances of dying of coronavirus decrease somewhat.

    But, and this is the crucial point, the less sick you are COMPARED TO OTHERS OVER 70 (if, being very very convervative, you even are that old) the smaller your chances of dying are.

    Nearly All Patients Hospitalized With Covid-19 Had Chronic Health Issues, Study Finds

    This is very BAD news for old people who have a chronic condition. Especially in nursing homes.

    It means that coronavirus is practically the angel of death.

    And of course the sicker the more likely to die.

    Let me say personally that I have spent approximately two thousand hours visiting people in nursing homes (pro-bono).

    This means two things. One for me one for you.

    Obviously I care GREATLY about those people. Not just one relative or something. Between 1,500 and 3,000 hours spent visiting strangers is not nothing. And the money spent on people I FIRST MET in nursing homes and the time and money spent travelling, etc have not been negligible either.

    AND THIS IS one of the main reasons that I opposed The Panic! I believe that the OBVIOUSLY inaccurate way that the world went about this IS WHAT DOOMED these 100,000 people (my high number isn't due to the first link entirely, in some countries many ot most nursing home deaths were never counted).

    I've writtten details of why and how in previous comments.

    The news for you personally however is good news.

    Having spent so much time there I can tell you that this population, which again, is the population that died in very large part, is far more decrepit than anybody reading this would imagine.

    Many of you know people who are 80 or 90 or a hundred or a hundred and five. I do, and have for all my life.

    Even before I started visiting people in nursing homes and hospices (and hospitals ehich is relevant as well because there are people hooked uo to machines in some hospitals for over a year).

    But the people that I knew and the people that you were likely to know are those who are out and about. Those who are doing okay for their age. not okay, actually they are doing great for their age. Anybody who is 90 years old or a hundred years old or a hundred five years old who is not in a nursing home or hospice or hospital or otherwise hooked up to machines at home, is somebody who is exceptionally healthy for their age.

    The people in nursing homes, of all ages, tend to skew towards being on the quite decrepit side. Only a small percentage are likely to be as healthy as someone's grandfather or great-grandfather who is living at home.

    And if someone here is over 90 years old and and is reading this blog, never mind getting all the way to the end of this comment, then they are NOT SIMILAR to most of the people who have died. THEY/YOU are MUCH HEALTHIER than those who have died.

    Especially if you're "just" 70!

    I hope this helps you feel better about things.

    I also hope this does not make your new ease translate into a lack of concern for those people who may actually be in real danger.

    What I hope it does is make us turn our attention toward our fears for ourselves towards our fears and caring about them.

    And not just about coronavirus. But about ALL the dangers they face (at least those who are better off alive, many are not, trust me). The biggest of which is lonliness and a feeling that the world abandoned them.

    And THAT'S how come it's so insane that they were slaughtered. They were ALREADY QUARANTINED in their horribly sad domicile.

    They should have been the EASIEST to protect.

    And not just that.

    Everyone else at risk (like very ill people at home) should have been quarantined and protected in ad hoc nursing homes created on the spot. EVERY hotel, motel and hostel is empty. Finding space for those in danger who were living with their children (or otherwise) would be the easiest thing in the world. And then protecting them for 6 months or so within the quarantine buildings would have been less 1% as complicated and expensive and insane as what the governments of every country have done, in order to seem important.

    And thus they doomed the people actually at risk and CONTINUE TO DO SO! You'll notice that these improvised new nursing homes Do not exist!

    Instead, the idiots of the world are arguing about whether to continue total quarantine or whether to become totally free. Or half free. Or 13.7% free... NONE of which faces the actual, real, endangered population. All of which continues to oretend that they don't exist.

    Except as a number. A concept. To be used by the media, the fearful masses who FEED the media, the wasteful part of the medical industry, and the politicians who need an excuse for their pretensions to the throne of government...

    And if I, someone with no expertise in any relevant specialty knew this IN FEBRUARY and stuck to it EVERY DAY SINCE until finally the truth can not be obscured anymore (because too many honest people in 40 countries have been involved in the science and medicine and numbers angle) --- Can we really believe that all of the clever people who actually read the reports from China and understood the relevant subjects did NOT know?

    Well, many did. But the majority of the masses and media and medicine and politicians etc, needed and wanted this.

    And so, the plague was spread and imported from China and then Iran and then Italy and then France... to everywhere else. And LITERALLY IMPORTED into nursing homes.

    But while I'm frustrated to be in a position where I feel like everyone around me is mad and I'm a Prophet shouting to a jeering audience, I believe that The Quarantine may, just may, have staved off something far worse. Mankind needed to be pushed off the treadmill and thing rethink things.

    Every new world does it. The Bible called it rhe jubille year. And every half century - almost to the exact year, it comes like clockwork. 2020, 1979, 1920

    [Note: The post WW1 world rethought everything, WW2 had no effect such effect anywhere outside Germany - everywhere else people thought the same things they did before Hitler become an international concern, once he became one, and after he was defeated. The post WW1 generation decided on Pacifism (as an ideological movement/almost-religion). Some even on Absolute Pacifism. Yet, with the exception of Gandhi way out in India they all (at least in Europe before Pearl Harbor) supported the war against Hitler. Bertrand Russell is an example of how they thought. He went to jail for opposing World War 1, supported Churchill in WW 2, and then was jailed again, in 1961, at the age of 89, for opposing the nuclear arms race and lived long enough to publicly oppose The Vietnam War.]

    If this turns out to be a sufficient trauma for people under 35 en masse have the ideological upheaval needed to inherit the world then it will have staved off a world war.

    Let's hope that The Pinker Principle remains true and that the World War One generation bequeathed the need for a much less deadly Jubilee reset in the form of the Vietnam War and it's mirror image in the Anti-War/ Hippie Movement, which bequeathed to our generation no more than a 2 month "Go To Your Room In Order To Be A Soldier In This War Against The Coronavirus/Death".

    Selah.

    And the award for TL;DR goes to…

    Seriously, you might want to hire an editor to help condense your posts down to 3 pages or less.

  161. @Steve Sailer
    About twelve years ago I was walking down the street, and standing outside the Good Earth restaurant waiting for the valet to bring his car around was Jon Voight. He was talking in a congenial fashion with a very good looking younger couple. I was hoping Mr. Voight had reconciled with his daughter Angelina and Brad Pitt, but they turned out to be somebody I didn't recognized. I decided to hang around to see if Mr. Voight was driving a Chrysler LeBaron but after a couple of minutes and the valet still hadn't arrived, I got bored and walked on.

    There is an old expression: Mommy’s baby, Daddy’s maybe? However, there is no doubt that Angelina is her father’s daughter.

    • Replies: @epebble
    I have heard that expressed another way: Maternity is a fact, Paternity is a matter of opinion.
  162. @ScarletNumber
    There is an old expression: Mommy's baby, Daddy's maybe? However, there is no doubt that Angelina is her father's daughter.

    I have heard that expressed another way: Maternity is a fact, Paternity is a matter of opinion.

  163. This anecdote definitely proves Covid is to Flu what a rattlesnake is to an earthworm:

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/manhattan-er-doc-lorna-breen-commits-suicide-shaken-by-coronavirus/

  164. @Mr. Anon

    Where i do not agree is are these attempts by the “it’s just the flu, bro” boys to pretend that because deaths are unspectacular (more or less a bad flu year) now and curves seem to be stalling that means it was “jus the flu”.
     
    And you seem to fall into the camp of "It's just a police-state, bro" or "It's just a depression, bro".

    In case they missed it, China-virus-2019 was specifically *stomped on* by all the lockdown stuff they hate (and i think is stupid and overbaked). Stuff we have never ever down before. That is why the deaths are low and the curves are rolling over.
     
    And, after-all, whatever the chicoms do must always be a necessary, proportionate (cough - Great Leap Forward - cough), rational (cough - Cultural Revolution - cough), sane, and reasonable (cough - Laogai prisoner organ-harvesting - cough) response.

    Reading comprehension Mr. Anon. Work on it.

    The technical parameters of the disease–what does it do? what are symptoms? how contagious is it? how is it contagious? who is getting hit hard? how lethal is it with current medical care?–those things are more or less “facts”.

    The appropriate policy response based on all that and our values, laws and legal rights that is something else.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    It seems I had you categorized wrong. I pegged you for a tyranny enthusiast, like so many others here.

    Whereas you are just somebody with a poor grasp of statistics who terms any questioning of the reigning public-health-fascism orthodoxy as "it's just the flu, bro".
  165. Hail says: • Website
    @Polynikes
    Are people still looking at total cases? Irregularities in testing make it a meaningless stat. Their hospitalizations are going down.

    I’ve been following Sweden’s health ministry’s daily updates for new corona-positive deaths and ICU intakes for corona-patients, which are tied to date of death. They are subject to rolling updates, which changes daily totals sometimes a week or more back, but data is 90%-complete by Death+3 days.

    The situation in Sweden is good, which is to say their strategy is working as planned:

    New ICU intakes peaked March 28 to April 13 (17-day window), @ 40 intakes/day (peak day in this window: 46).

    Deaths peaked April 2 to April 18 (17-day window) @ 89 deaths/day (peak-of-peak: April 7-15 @ 97 deaths/day; peak single day: April 7, @ 111 deaths). AFAICT, this is all coronavirus-positive deaths including those already in a terminal state.

    New deaths for period April 20-26 are running at 42.5/day, already less than half the peak period’s avg. daily rate; the April 20 to April 30 data, which will be all-but-final with the Monday May 4 update, will likely be closer to 35/day, on the way down further.

    Epidemiological work going back decades shows that seasonal flu strains will tend to cause about a three-week ‘hit,’ and the Swedish data aligns with that. They are already at levels not even any specialist would notice or care about at all, if it weren’t being tracked.

    See also:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/04/19/against-the-corona-panic-pt-iii-just-the-flu-vindicated-by-the-data-or-why-to-end-the-shutdowns-now/#sweden

  166. @Polynikes

    where it had a good run before all the lockdowns
     
    That’s called cherry picking the data.

    That’s called cherry picking the data.

    So is life.

    While there are other symptoms, the simplest comparison for severity is simple death rate (IFR). But to calculate any sort of rate you need a number for denominator. Which means you either have to be able to count infections, so either:
    a) get a good test and test a representative sample
    or
    b) find places where it’s actually been able to run through most of population so you can use the whole population and the calculated rate will be a floor.

    Everywhere that’s been done the IFR (even after age adjustment) is well above ‘the flu.” Mostly an order of magnitude above. The Miami 0.19% is the only case i’ve seen within shouting distance (maybe 4x) of “the flu”. (And “flu deaths” are at least as inflated. They don’t test for the flu either, just count pneumonia cases where it’s plausibly “the flu”.) And i’m dubious the Miami numbers hold up.

    Bottom line because of people’s natural caution plus the lockdown the China virus epidemic has been stomped on. (As has infectious disease generally–everything’s down.)

    One could generously–16X the official cases–estimate 5% of the US population has been infected. With 60,000K deaths that’s an IFR of 0.36%–again an order of magnitude bigger than “just the flu”.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Everywhere that’s been done the IFR (even after age adjustment) is well above ‘the flu.” Mostly an order of magnitude above.
     
    Absolutely wrong.
  167. OT: CV deaths (58,341) passed U.S. Vietnam War deaths (58,318). CV is the most deadly event in U.S. history in the last 75 years (after WW2).

  168. @Reg Cæsar

    This in turn led to crazier government shutdowns of most outdoor recreation.
     
    Well, Bois des Sioux announced their front nine opened last Saturday; those are in North Dakota. The back nine, across the river in Minnesota, looked dicier, but their sentence was commuted by the governor. Within a day or so, the entire course opened.


    Here's a list of every state's policy as of two days ago:


    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/heres-when-every-state-plans-to-end-their-coronavirus-lockdown

    Am I the only person who has observed that the artists’ inventions of the Doom Virus looks not at all like the electron microscopy photos I’ve seen (which suggest neutrophil-like blobs with cloudy areas around them)…but more like golf balls with bad acne?

    Or koosh balls of the 1990s.

    Or Pokemon Koffing.

    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=pokemon+coffing&t=ftas&iax=images&ia=images

  169. @AnotherDad
    Reading comprehension Mr. Anon. Work on it.

    The technical parameters of the disease--what does it do? what are symptoms? how contagious is it? how is it contagious? who is getting hit hard? how lethal is it with current medical care?--those things are more or less "facts".

    The appropriate policy response based on all that and our values, laws and legal rights that is something else.

    It seems I had you categorized wrong. I pegged you for a tyranny enthusiast, like so many others here.

    Whereas you are just somebody with a poor grasp of statistics who terms any questioning of the reigning public-health-fascism orthodoxy as “it’s just the flu, bro”.

    • Replies: @Olorin
    Over the past 2-3 months I've enjoyed (not really) mapping the rhetoric of this psy-op.

    Knowing that Pharma and health care PR firms have had plans in the drawer for at least 15 years for this sort of global pandemic-panic internet-based campaign helps clarify the categories to look for. It sharpens the senses so that small/new patterns in interaction can be seen as the iceberg tips they are.

    The formulation of precisely that dismissive and mocking phrase, "it's just the flu, bro," to ridicule dissent on this topic was a key turning point, in my view, Mr. Anon.

    The PR forces behind all this went from a Worried Mommy/Stern Expert stance...

    ...to a Hellaciously Furious Ex-Wife one.

    As the 4channers are satirizing it, YOU WILL EAT THE BUGS, GOY.

    When there is no longer any effort to understand the other person's point of view, when that point of view questions the authority demanding everyone bow down to Worried Mommy (now Conga Lining on TikTok!) and Stern Expert (whose drives to absolute power and Croesus-tier wealth are ever more denuded of camo)...

    ...when simple dissent gets met with bitter/rejected-female-type ridicule/mocking...you know that you're standing smack dab over the lunker hole on rotten lake ice in April.

    I find it fascinating that this Brave New Feminized Communications World has launched its global AI-based algorithm-driven PR-managed lucrative-new-medical-products campaign around that most primal of drives: the fear of infection, leading to death. Which is odd at some level since some of those giant Pharma PR firms are responsible for things like LA County's "Fuck Without Fear" sex campaign (Weber Shandwick) or Kaiser Permanente festooning its buildings with rainbow flags to celebrate STD superspreaders.

    Advertising, marketing, and PR have long accreted around sex, we know that, and we've seen to what extremes they will take that to get attention.

    Still, it seems that going right for the gut with a memento mori pickaxe is de trop on their parts. I mean, after all, the elders of this republic, at present, remember what it was like to grow up saturated with constant threat of nuclear holocaust, oops, I mean annihilation.

    If you couldn't scare us into compliance with that 40-year campaign of bioterrorism (for nuclear war was, at bottom, just that), do you really think that we're going to melt in the face of the Holocoof?

    Of course finding a way to kill off or disenfranchise anyone over 60 is part of the game here...but let's not digress there at the moment.

  170. @AnotherDad

    That’s called cherry picking the data.
     
    So is life.

    While there are other symptoms, the simplest comparison for severity is simple death rate (IFR). But to calculate any sort of rate you need a number for denominator. Which means you either have to be able to count infections, so either:
    a) get a good test and test a representative sample
    or
    b) find places where it's actually been able to run through most of population so you can use the whole population and the calculated rate will be a floor.

    Everywhere that's been done the IFR (even after age adjustment) is well above 'the flu." Mostly an order of magnitude above. The Miami 0.19% is the only case i've seen within shouting distance (maybe 4x) of "the flu". (And "flu deaths" are at least as inflated. They don't test for the flu either, just count pneumonia cases where it's plausibly "the flu".) And i'm dubious the Miami numbers hold up.


    Bottom line because of people's natural caution plus the lockdown the China virus epidemic has been stomped on. (As has infectious disease generally--everything's down.)

    One could generously--16X the official cases--estimate 5% of the US population has been infected. With 60,000K deaths that's an IFR of 0.36%--again an order of magnitude bigger than "just the flu".

    Everywhere that’s been done the IFR (even after age adjustment) is well above ‘the flu.” Mostly an order of magnitude above.

    Absolutely wrong.

  171. @obwandiyag
    Well, you're half right. It is not the flu (and the "bro" is how you can tell). New York City just surpassed the 1918 Spanish flu in deaths. So if you want to say it's "just the Spanish flu" then you got something there.

    On the other hand, quarantine is good. It prevents many many people from dying (or having their internal organs excoriated). Calling it a lockdown is ridiculous anyway. My state, for instance is "locked down." But I can drive anywhere I want (which is nowhere). I can walk out my front door and take a walk anywhere. I can go to the grocery store, or, even better, the health food store and the farm market, where they box it up and bag it and leave it on the stoop for me. As to restaurants, restaurants suck. Gastro-intestinal disease heaven. Movies suck. Way way too loud, and people talk in them (loudly, because the movie's so loud) like they think they are encased in sound-resistant foam. Working? You can tell by the term "essential workers" how many people we actually need working in a modern country that is fully automated, and how many jobs are just busy-work. National income is simple and cheap and perfectly do-able, and eminently preferable to millions of people driving all over the place just to type on computers and call it work.

    The lockdown is foolish for the reasons listed…people can still take the crowded subways, busses and go to grocery stores, liquor stores yet they are banned from the open parks.

    The 1918 pandemic was worse because it killed mostly younger people. Mortality was high in people younger than 40. The high mortality in healthy people was a unique feature of this pandemic. The fractional mortality increase was highest among teenagers during the first wave. This peak shifted to 25- to 29-year-olds in subsequent waves. The distribution of age-specific mortality during the last three waves was strongly correlated. An estimated total of 41,188 people, or ˜0·7% of the NYC population, died due to the Spanish flu pandemic.

    The Wahu flu has killed 390 New Yorkers under the age of 40 compared to 33,512 killed under the age of 40 during the Spanish flu epidemic
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4082668/table/tbl1/?report=objectonly

  172. @Mr. Anon
    It seems I had you categorized wrong. I pegged you for a tyranny enthusiast, like so many others here.

    Whereas you are just somebody with a poor grasp of statistics who terms any questioning of the reigning public-health-fascism orthodoxy as "it's just the flu, bro".

    Over the past 2-3 months I’ve enjoyed (not really) mapping the rhetoric of this psy-op.

    Knowing that Pharma and health care PR firms have had plans in the drawer for at least 15 years for this sort of global pandemic-panic internet-based campaign helps clarify the categories to look for. It sharpens the senses so that small/new patterns in interaction can be seen as the iceberg tips they are.

    The formulation of precisely that dismissive and mocking phrase, “it’s just the flu, bro,” to ridicule dissent on this topic was a key turning point, in my view, Mr. Anon.

    The PR forces behind all this went from a Worried Mommy/Stern Expert stance…

    …to a Hellaciously Furious Ex-Wife one.

    As the 4channers are satirizing it, YOU WILL EAT THE BUGS, GOY.

    When there is no longer any effort to understand the other person’s point of view, when that point of view questions the authority demanding everyone bow down to Worried Mommy (now Conga Lining on TikTok!) and Stern Expert (whose drives to absolute power and Croesus-tier wealth are ever more denuded of camo)…

    …when simple dissent gets met with bitter/rejected-female-type ridicule/mocking…you know that you’re standing smack dab over the lunker hole on rotten lake ice in April.

    I find it fascinating that this Brave New Feminized Communications World has launched its global AI-based algorithm-driven PR-managed lucrative-new-medical-products campaign around that most primal of drives: the fear of infection, leading to death. Which is odd at some level since some of those giant Pharma PR firms are responsible for things like LA County’s “Fuck Without Fear” sex campaign (Weber Shandwick) or Kaiser Permanente festooning its buildings with rainbow flags to celebrate STD superspreaders.

    Advertising, marketing, and PR have long accreted around sex, we know that, and we’ve seen to what extremes they will take that to get attention.

    Still, it seems that going right for the gut with a memento mori pickaxe is de trop on their parts. I mean, after all, the elders of this republic, at present, remember what it was like to grow up saturated with constant threat of nuclear holocaust, oops, I mean annihilation.

    If you couldn’t scare us into compliance with that 40-year campaign of bioterrorism (for nuclear war was, at bottom, just that), do you really think that we’re going to melt in the face of the Holocoof?

    Of course finding a way to kill off or disenfranchise anyone over 60 is part of the game here…but let’s not digress there at the moment.

  173. Thomm says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike
    I have to say the subject of haircuts during this police state is an interesting peripheral. I know no less than 5 friends of the family who are stylists, that also happen to have had salons set up in their homes for side work for quite a long time. Getting a haircut is a few minute drive more of a hassle than it was before, which isn't much, and an excuse to take a drive isn't a bad thing.

    But it's funny to read here how seemingly few people actually have access to a barber or stylist. I suppose there are some advantages to not being a snobby intellectual or other garden variety elitist know-it-all. I have a few lawyer friends still in Cali that I've been Zooming with and all three look like they just got rescued off the ship's boat from the HMS Bounty.

    There's my one comment for the day. At least I know I look better than Sailer and Unz.

    There’s my one comment for the day.

    Which is more than the quality of your comments warrant.

    At least I know I look better than Sailer and Unz.

    Aren’t you about 40 pounds overweight. It doesn’t take much to be better looking than Unz, but I don’t think you can clear even that low bar.

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