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From Quillette:
Did the BLM Protests Against the Police Lead to the 2020 Spike in Homicides?
written by Wilfred Reilly
Published on January 27, 2021Wilfred Reilly is an associate professor of Political Science at Kentucky State University. His most recent book is Taboo: Ten Facts You Can’t Talk About. You can follow him on Twitter at @will_da_beast630.
I reviewed Professor Reilly’s 2019 book Hate Crime Hoax: How the Left Is Selling a Fake Race War in 2019.
Serious crime, particularly murder, soared while everyone was supposed to be locked indoors. Between 2019—by no means a famously peaceful year—and 2020, homicides alone surged by 42 percent during the summer and 34 percent during the fall. Many politically acceptable explanations have been advanced for this, with left-leaning publications like Vox preferring to focus on the undeniable economic devastation wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, an alternative explanation fits the data far better: crime increased because major police departments had their budgets slashed and reeled in their stops dramatically—and similar chaos has followed such “woke” policy moves nearly every time they have been implemented. …
This finding gels perfectly with recent history. The increase in murders from roughly 14,000 in 2014 to 17,294 in 2017, following the first wave of Black Lives Matter-associated riots and the resulting police pullback, gained international attention as the “Ferguson Effect.” More broadly, US murders jumped from 8,530 in 1962 to 24,700 in 1991, following a generation or two of criminal justice reforms including the Miranda and Escobedo protocols, the Fruit of the Poisoned Tree doctrine, and a general liberalization of sentencing policies.
Read the whole thing there.
Total insanity
What we need is a Colored School for Normal Persons.
These “stats” are not telling you “the truth”! This so-called statistical method of theirs is pure lunacy. If you believe in their numbers and rates you are a fool too!
What is needed is more opportunity for Black Men.
There isn’t any doubt the cause is BLM.
Not only what we’ve seen over the previous six years, but the but the timing–post Floyd–and people involved–blacks–seal the case.
Shockingly telling “you should be really pissed off!” to not very bolted down people is not a recipe for civilized behavior nor social peace.
BLM as the cause is so obvious, the Reality Czar is required to be on the job 24x7x365 to insure everyone understands BLM is not the cause.
OT – military to ban the “OK sign”:
as exemplified by these noted white supremecists:
And yet they manage to convince people that the greatest threat to blacks comes from the police and white supremacy. It’s not just that blacks don’t mind shooting their co-ethnics in huge numbers. A black shooter won’t even care if he hits a bunch of innocent people along with the person he was aiming for. A typical funeral shooter will consider a 5:1 ratio of innocent bystanders to intended target as acceptable.
Defund those urban/metro police departments.
While union cops rack up the OT, citizen calls to 9-1-1 get no dispatch.
(Meanwhile, the school districts maintain their own, high-cost police.)
I live in a rural area. Very safe. It has lots of private, gun ownership.
The county sheriff’s office is small, which contains the abuse of taxpayers.
OT
Read the whole thread.
This is a classic example of why there is so little trust in institutions and leaders in America anymore. Not because policy makers, social scientists and opinion leaders make mistakes. No one is right 100% of the time. Because they let politics blind them, won’t admit when they are wrong, and then try to obscure the causes of the problems they create, to the detriment of the American people.
This isn’t just an issue on the Left, although rising crime rates and BLM are a great example. Since NAFTA, China’s entry to the WTO and unlimited immigration, the American working class has been devastated. But there is little recognition of this causality by the Orthdoxy.
With the exception of the 1st Iraq war, every major military conflict the US has entered since Vietnam has become an unwinnable counter insurgency. But we continue to lose lives and waste billions per year in Afghanistan.
Although murders did increase in 2020, some of Reilly’s points seem a bit cherry-picked, and his narrative doesn’t allow for the huge increase in the population over the past 60 years:
In 1962, the murder rate was 4.6 per 100,000. In 2019, “by no means a famously peaceful year,” the murder rate was 5.0 per 100,000. Not really very different. The raw numbers from 2019 are larger, of course, but that’s to be expected when a population increases from 186 million (1962) to 328 million (2019).
He cites 1991 deliberately, since that year the murder rate was more than double the 1962 rate, at 9.8 per 100,000. However, in 2014, the rate was 4.4 per 100,000, i.e., lower than the murder rate in 1962. Isn’t 2014 just as much “following a generation or two of criminal justice reforms” as 1991, or 2020 for that matter?
TL;DR: The linkage between murder rates and public policy seems weaker and less direct than Reilly’s article suggests.
Coïncidence?
As with everything wrong with the world, it was ultimately the fault of the British.
In honor of black history month: how many whites have been killed by blacks since 2000?
Not to mention telling them this 24/7/365 via mass-media entertainment/indoctrination, and not to mention how gullible the population is. Though “not very bolted down” does imply that last bit, inter alia.
Further, the mass-media indoctrination tells them not only that they should be pissed off, but at whom they should be pissed off. And that nothing ever is their own fault. And if that weren’t enough, it tells white folks that all of it [and more] is completely justified.
Its said that Burl Ives had a dusky son…
How can a professor get away with saying stuff like this in the current …
Ohhh, OK.
You should also take the time to read the ‘Talk’ page on his wikipedia entry. It’s mostly a bunch of SJW’s melting down over him being a conservative black academic without admitting that is what triggers them or directly addressing his views – trying to argue that he isn’t notable, his sources aren’t reputable, that he is contributing to his own page, etc.
It’s not BLM. It’s the fact that whites did not embrace BLM and get down on one knee and genuflect before Saint Floyd fast enough. Some even had the audacity to say Blue Lives Matter. Others were worse. What’s worse? Not caring about all those beautiful black babies. And their mommas hair. That too.
Jared Taylor once debated Professor Reilly at considerable length:
Spot on.
If mass immigration and multiculturalism made our lives and economy better there should be hard data to prove it. After all both policies have been in override since about 1990, when the government roughly doubled legal immigration. The three biggest economic indicators I can think of that would reflect that are median income, federal budget deficits, and trade deficits. Median incomes have stalled. The trade deficit is worse. The budget deficit is far, far worse.
And multiculturalism? Well we are literally on the verge of tearing our country apart, largely due to racial strife.
Look at the WH noon briefing video of Jake Sullivan expounding on things “working families in this country are facing every day.”
These comprise: 1) The Pandemic, 2) Climate Change, 3) “threat of domestic violent extremism.” I think those are the pillars of the Bridge Back To The 20th Century actually.
Uttering such sententious nonsense isn’t meant to shore up citizens’ trust in the elite, it’s intended to make the proles tune out entirely. The crisis point where the world’s oldest deliberative body scurries in pants-wetting fear from an unarmed cosplay mob has already passed in a routine weekday. What good comes of anybody paying attention to civics (let alone the non-stakeholders)? East Berlin fencing/infantry will still be surrounding the Capitol at this time next year.
If mass immigration and multiculturalism made our lives and economy better there should be hard data to prove it.
It makes the economic results better for the elites. That’s all that matters in GlobalHomo clown world.
And multiculturalism? Well we are literally on the verge of tearing our country apart, largely due to racial strife.
Gated communities and secure buildings are exempted from the violence for some reason or other. It is a total mystery!
Former WWE wrestler Tyler Reks is now Gabbi Tuft.
But he always felt like a girl on the inside as he was smashing a folding chair over his archrival’s head.
BLM spikes the murder rate- replicated 2 times. BLM spikes the murder rare- n=330,000,000 . BLM- the biggest unethical social science experiment in history.
I’m sure if you go back and look at the footage Gabbi did one of those little back heel kicks every time he swung that chair.
So, which part of that statement have you proved false, Jake?
Pretty soon people will be standing frozen like clothing store mannequins, terrified that they might inadvertently make a hate sign.
Yikes. This guy makes “Caitlyn” Jenner look like Audrey Hepburn.
I have the impression that the claims that the okay sign and boogaloo are white supremacist came entirely from the ranks of the woke themselves. Even if I’m wrong, it would be a cinch for them to invent such a claim given the complete lack of critical scrutiny of anything they say by their peers and hangers-on.
The determination and rapidity with which they’re targeting the military indicates to me they’re pretty afraid that there might arise a resistance movement from within the ranks. They want to catch it early.
In honor of negro history month, how many whites will be killed by negroes during negro history month?
It’s what authoritarian regimes do: they must secure the reliability (if not the loyalty) of the military.
The
BidenHarris regime is no different.Sullivan is emblematic of the modern era’s hollow men. A Rhodie and a Yale-educated lawyer with no particular experience in anything real, and yet he is now the President’s chief advisor on “National Security”.
As if parents of “working families” lie awake at night worrying about climate change. What a load of hogwash.
There was the 1994 crime bill and 3 strikes law, etc. There was a bit of a policy change then, don’t you think? Or maybe you subscribe to a Pinkeresque Roe v Wade explanation. Or crack. Broken windows.
Regardless, murder rose then fell. And certainly rose this summer.
Thanks to progress in trauma medicine, wounds that would have killed 60 years ago nowadays do not necessarily produce murder victims but survivors of aggravated assault.
I’m still in the simulation in a computer in a closet in Los Angeles County.
OFF TOPIC
OFF TOPIC
Indeed. This is why proponents of the second amendment always cite murder statistics, which they love to remind you have gone down. What is needed is to report on shooting statistics. Are more or fewer people being shot at, regardless of whether they survive or not?
This should not be taken as evidence I’m against the second amendment or am pro gun control. I just don’t approve of sleight of hand no matter who does it.
This violates Betteridge’s law of headlines: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.”
I guess this provides camouflage. I thought it was some MSM article blaming it on systemic racism or COVID but then I saw it was quillette.
Reilly’s been on Glenn Loury’s podcast. I’m kind of not sure how to take him. He seems pretty smart and reasonable, and then when pressed he turns into a blowhard. Also, he looks white, and has a white television car salesman commercial voice.
At any rate, he’s an anti-HBD environmentalist:
This really encapsulates how the guys comes across: “After suppressing a bit of a giggle here, let me note that high Black immigrant IQ is also not a result of uniquely rigorous immigration processes employed by the U.S.A. and modern Europe.”
The kind of condescending, “shaking my head,” “Debunked!” approach, in this case when dealing with a straw man, is how he comes off. The argument is not that the State Department doesn’t give IQ tests. The argument is that modern immigrants are self-selecting. The U.S. doesn’t prevent dumb Africans and Carribeaners from coming … well, we sort of do in the form of visas that require waiting jobs or college admissison spots … but dumb Africans and Carribeaners don’t have the money and planning abiliity to get over here in the same proportions as smart Africans and Carribeaners.
They will need to shred the old Army ROTC training manuals:
But the Navy may have a problem, unless it wants its sailors to be fleeced when in Japan:
If only we had a modern-day Leonardo to capture that enigmatic smile!
But he always felt like a girl on the inside as he was smashing a folding chair over his archrival’s head.
On the other hand it does answer, rather decisively, Freud’s ‘great’ question “What does a woman want?”
One more curious thing about Saint Floyd the Fentanyl’d — he was the first person to die while infected with Covid to not have his cause of death listed as Covid.
Weird, eh?
Sorry but I just ate .
The Democrat cries out… well, just cries as she strikes you.
Discussion underway here on this very blog.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/nyt-us-government-needs-reality-czar-to-censor-badthink/#comment-4450286
For the sake of your mental health, you may want to skip the corvinavirus contributions.
Not only that, but these vastly superior medical services are far more readily available due to cell phones, which mean that help is summoned instantly; and due to EMS vans which are essentially mobile ERs as opposed to the quaint ambulances of yore, whose purpose was to transport you to the real ER.
Or at any time, please? Where are the aggregate figures? And may we include other varieties of mayhem visited upon us with horrifying regularity, and which the MSM studiously ignores, year after year?
I take it Fender forgets, we’re more fans of the singing of Ms. Hynde?
I’m watching ‘68. It’s on HBO Max but I think cnn did it. The quality of leadership back then, and I’m just talking in terms of presentation & stature, are light years ahead of what is going on today.
I don’t think someone like Lindsey Graham could have been elected dog catcher back then, let alone a senator.
Looks like there’s lots of new talent on the rise filling up the void of Trump’s betrayal of his base.
Great to see Hunter Wallace right back where he belongs, at Pickett’s Charge.
I wish Ron would introduce a new voice speaking for the White youth of today to coincide with his failed olde guard.
It’s interesting how culture plays a role. For example in the UK and Canada Caribbean immigrants are kind of at the bottom. A significant chunk of the crime in Canada is done by Jamaicans in Toronto area. Maybe Haitians in Montreal are better.
Also even here in the USA. Caribbean excellence usually lasts a generation as their kids assimilate into the larger black American community.
Many NYC blacks, if not an outright majority, have Caribbean roots. When you read about blacks born in NYC from about 1920-40. It’s kind of striking how many were born to Caribbean parents. For example I didn’t know Cicely Tyson’s parents were immigrants from Nevis. She was born in Harlem.
I second Led Zep sentiment “though the course may change sometimes…rivers always reach the sea”
A study in Philadelphia found that speeding gunshot victims to the hospital in the back of a police car produced equal to better survival rates than waiting for the ambulance. Other studies controlling for severity of injury have found that victims arriving by private car have higher survival rates.
Load and go is better than stay and play…paramedics can do most things on the move but not intubation…the cops tourniquet extremity wounds and take off.
When you allow negroes to be negroes, they will be negroes.
Simple as that.
Why is “Wear a Mask!” incapable of wearing a mask without showing nostril cleavage?
And why is he always wearing some type of mask that has gaps allowing breath-spew leakage out the sides?
Does he, say, suffer from some degree of intellectual disability?
This reminds me of the most abject failure in leadership by Kathleen Blanco who was governor of the state of Louisiana during hurricane Katrina. She wanted to score political points by flying around in a helicopter while crying and making an emotional appeal that Bush wasn’t doing anything about it.
She should have rounded up her National Guard to get a helicopter to pick up heavy equipment from anyone who could offer it (and offer to pay them double the rental rate). The equipment could have been delivered to the breached levy site and she should have scored points for handling this crisis herself.
He couldn’t bring himself to say “working families in this country are facing relentless bullshit from the likes of CNN every day.”
I didn’t realize that the Caribbean Harlem invasion had started that early. Present day Brooklyn is predominantly current or first generation Caribbeans while Harlemite blacks have been around a lot longer.
Did the BLM Protests Against the Police Lead to the 2020 Spike in Homicides?
We need to see a Tropic Thunder-style movie that has some SF soldiers trying to communicate silently without using banned hand signals.
This kind of humor deflects from the probable reality that he is a pervert.
Is Prof. Reilly tenured?
You know, it should be amazing, but it isn’t, that so many on left have their undies in a huge irritating bunch over this woman Marjorie Greene.
Why? Because the Jake Tappers of the world — a slimy POS if ever there was one — need demons.
Since they have no religion, they have to invent devils.
Of course, they can’t deal with Eric Swallwell banging a Chinese spy, or Maxine Waters telling everyone within earshot to get in the faces of Trump supporters, or complete ciphers like Marie Hirono and Ted Liu, who definitely left behind their cerebellums in the womb.
The other reason, obviously, that Greene is such a target is BECAUSE she is actually insignificant, even if what she espouses has some truth in it. It’s a dress rehearsal for going after bigger “demons.”
Uh oh, my crimestop didn’t kick in quickly enough when I read that.
Every life is precious but there were a total of 4 US combat deaths in Afghanistan in all of 2020 so this is just not a major issue. The US has lots of problems right now but combat deaths in Afghanistan are way down on the list.
Doesn’t everyone make that gesture when they pick a booger out of their nose and prepare to flick it away? Is that now going to be grounds for a dishonorable discharge?
“What is needed is more opportunity for Black Men”
So Affirmative Action” and quotas not enough for you.
There can be only so many NFL and NBA leagues.
Thanks for that.
If such stats were available, a really good study would address
–gun shot wounds per population, cut by race and time
–% fatal gun shot wounds per population, cut by race and time
–hospital/ER costs for gunshot wounds, cut by race and time
–% of gun shot wounds successfully/unsuccessfully treated in ER, cut by race and time
–gunshot events where victim pronounced dead at scene, cut by race and time
Such numbers would give a much better sense of what is really happening.
Hypothesis? Fatalities are steady, but #of gunshot wounds/events are high, a greater percentage of gunshot wounds are recovered from, and costs of treatment have skyrocketed.
And it is ALL concentrated amongst the numinous ones, both past and present.
Who the heck wants to leave the Caribbean for NYC?
What are these people thinking?
I believe that the OK sign as a “White Power” symbol was actually started by some guys on 4-chan or something, just as a gag. They wanted to see if they could take any old innocuous gesture or symbol and, through meme-power, get wokesters to believe it was actually true. And it worked.
How far back in Joke Tapper’s timeline would you have to go to find him retweeting the same sentiment, just from the positive/approval side of it?
You may like to know that this was also covered in the Washington Post yesterday in a reasonably straight-forward bit of reporting.
Headline: “Homicides rose 30 percent in 2020, survey of 34 U.S. cities finds”
4th para: “And the drastic uptick in violence beginning in June, immediately after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, paralleled a similar uptick in 2016 after protests against police use of force erupted, said criminologist Richard Rosenfeld of the University of Missouri at St. Louis.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/crime-law/2021/02/03/homicides-rose-2020/
It’s essentially the precise undoing of the approach to rising crime of the 1994 VCCLEA, which was better funding of police, more proactive policing, and longer prison sentences – all of which worked quite well (the VCCLEA is the catalyst for re-urbanization IMO). It was obvious that undoing the very things which led to a long term trend of reduced violent crime would yield, well – much more violent crime.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/U0YlrTTCYi550Z4py1MNVenNt-E1oi5vqbMX2nSIAvMVfGW-XDI9VOPjUOa9wKI7fnxsoWyv7kLrHKfJg7iMGIpDNvNC99uBoQXMbuTEqsqTzvYVcBkSKamYcIRn7E0bTHAFop3w
“A study in Philadelphia found that speeding gunshot victims to the hospital in the back of a police car produced equal to better survival rates than waiting for the ambulance”
Plus itz an easy cleanup. Police cars have plastic seats in the back. Itz an easy job to clean up. Just turn on the water hose and rinse away.
It’s an entertainment bog. Who doesn’t trust a bog?
What about Hawiian shirts? I love that one: Put on a colorful and comfortable shirt and no one knows if your just relaxing or are part of the insurrection. (They also can’t tell if you’re packing).
We need more of this: Take an object, symbol or gesture that everyone likes or uses, and highjack it for the movement. These nitwits will be playing wack-a-mole forever.
Congress is just a carnival show now. The laws are being made by Executive Order, regulations passed by executive departments, and by the courts. The legislative houses are all about putting on this kind of worthless vapid show.
In my mind it started with Arlen Specter asking Clarence Thomas on national TV “Have you ever heard of ‘Long Dong Silver?” All down hill from there. They are a worthless for getting the people’s business done. What is taking Iran so long with their bomb?
While you are waiting for the ambulance to come, the victim may bleed out in the meantime. Also you are in a city so it’s not a long ride. Ideally you would want the cops to quickly apply at least some minimal measures to stop the bleeding before they toss you into the back of the cop car.
How can things not get worse, when everything these people believe is wrong? Everything. I am not worried the least about the piss-weak pandemic, so-called domestic extremism, nor climate change, yet these people keep telling me 24/7 that these are what I should worry about. Either they are deliberately trying to distract me from my real worries- a crashing economy, mass immigration, and destroying people with heterodox opinions-, or they really believe their own propaganda.
Evil, stupid, or both?
TPTB fear the training they’ve inculcated American society with in their service could come back and bite them on the ass when they try to screw the populace.
They KNOW basic infantry tactics would make things hell for them in a revolt.
The old JROTC US Army manuals like TM-145-4-2 cover things like hand signals, ambushes and the like.
These manuals can be found all over and on the interwebs; I found mine abandoned in high school.
Just saw “The Hunt” and I think it is an amusing movie right up the alley for Deplorables.
Great. Another mulatto cousin. Fourth or something…
Melanin=tenure.
Socialist leftists are not for immigration. Or ID politics for that matter.
Just so’s you know, you ditz-brains who think that mere Democrats are “leftists.”
I like how he mixes capitalists with leftists. Huh? He of course means ID politicians, what you cretins call “cultural Marxists” which doesn’t mean anything and is not a real concept, although the qualification “cultural” might imply that real Marxists, as opposed to the cultural kind, don’t give a damn about identity, only about rich and poor, about money, which is the only thing that matters.
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I’ve been wondering what they have in store for us that they feel the need to purge the military. The likely answer is arms seizures. It’s been crickets on the gun control issue so far.
While BLM certainly helped increase the murder rate, it was the lockdowns which resulted in the rapid spread of BLM protests across the nation. Without the lockdowns the death of George Floyd would not have resulted in protesting across America and to places like New York City. The lockdowns resulted in the spread of the BM protests, because it was the only way young people could socialize and gather. All the college kids were sick and tired of being locked home with their parents, millions more young people were out of work due to the shuttering of millions of businesses. Without the lockdowns we never would have had the summer of George.
Pretty interesting and even-handed discussion of the Capitol riot on Bret Weinstein’s podcast, where he interviews Jeremy Lee Quinn, a journalist who has been studying BLM, Antifa, and Proud Boy activities and entered the Capitol during the riot. He says that the more militant of the pro-Trump rioters had studied and closely followed the tactics of Antifa.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/time-to-purge-wikipedia/
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twentieth_Century_Motor_Car_Corporation
The Lady And The Dale: Official Teaser | HBO
The Lady and the Dale: Official Trailer | HBO
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What is “Wilfred Reilly” going to write his next book about, golf course design?
They could still, theoretically, be affected by it even if they’re not lying away worrying about it.
I happen to believe that the so-called ‘effects of climate change’ are a bunch of monumental hogwash in themselves, amounting to little more than excuses to pack ever more of the third world into the first via the route of ‘climate refugees.’
Still, I’m open to being wrong on climate. For the time being, though, the kinds terrifying ‘changes’ I’m supposed to panicked by don’t seem all that terrifying to me. I find attempts to characterize a couple degree warming as calamitous completely unconvincing.
“the 1st Iraq war”
The sequel was better. Cheney and Rumsfeld running psyop on the runt whilst Poppy had Scowcroft write bitchy columns about Cheney and Rumsfeld. And the old lady who was a dead ringer for Alistair Crowley in pearls? Quite the soap opera. I just replaced my Hanes white socks with cool Dickies grey socks and man have I been liberated. Just like the Iraqis.
My honest impression of race politics over the last 40 years is that Non-Blacks have gotten smarter, while African Americans have gotten dumber.
I feel that this pretty much explains every phenomenon in America today: Why Whites have become vastly more Puritan, why heavily Hispanic California and Texas are booming, why the elites have become so pro-immigration for Hispanics, Arabs, and Asians, why heavily Black areas are a dumpster fire while heavily Latino areas now encapsulate prestigious areas like Queens and Silicon Valley, why Black politics have become borderline retarded, etc. Why liberals(who live with Whites and Immigrants) have become more firm in their beliefs, and why conservatives(who live near Black areas) have become more hard in their beliefs.
My honest impression is that Hispanics were really dysfunctional in the 90s, at least in terms of income and poverty, but are doing alright these days.
Asians were alright in the 90s, but not much too different than Whites, but now they do vastly better.
And I notice that lots of Muslims coding these days, when that wasn’t the case in the 90s.
Whites are doing ridiculously well in America these days, even the rural, working class ones live in nice houses, though they have a drug problem, but that is more a story of addiction than poverty.
Get ready for a Rohm Putsch event, aka “preemptive retaliation” against not-yet rebellious military leaders, with a little collateral house-cleaning thrown in to eliminate ubiquitous saboteurs and traitors, Trotskyite “deviationists,” defeatists, Four-Old-ists, and assorted other -ites and -ists.
Chrissie was probably the best female singer in rock’n’roll. She had a golden voice. Her rhythm guitar playing was adequate backup for James Honeymoon Scott’s pyrotechnics but isn’t really worthy of a signature guitar. She got this honor purely due to virtue signaling by Gibson. Poor James checked out after two albums and was never really able to establish an extended presence on the rock’n’roll scene. Pretenders fans know he was the real deal though.
Ann Coulter Retweeted:
“Reilly: BLM Main Cause of 2020 Murder Rise”
No.