The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
Random 2018 PISA Findings
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Israel has the highest standard deviation of reading test scores of any country taking the new PISA test: 124 compared to an OECD average of 99. US is around 108. Ireland has the lowest SD of any above average scoring country at around 91.

PISA is scored much like an SAT test with an intended mean for rich countries of 500 and a standard deviation of 100.

Mexico has a low standard deviation of 82. Mexico doesn’t have much of an intellectual elite according to PISA. There are rich people in Mexico, but their kids don’t seem to study hard in school judging by the lack of high scoring Mexicans on the PISA test over the years. Not surprisingly, Israel has The Bomb and Mexico does not.

Finland has the least Between School variation, with almost all of its variance stemming from differences among students Within Each School. Israel has the most Between School variation, followed by Lebanon and Netherlands.

New Zealand’s ethnic distribution of scores is pretty similar to America’s, with Maori scoring like Hispanics and non-Maori Pacific Islanders like blacks:

in the order reading, maths, science
Asian: 517, 522, 523
White: 524, 507, 526
Māori: 463, 451, 465
Pacific: 442, 433, 438

Thanks to iSteve commenter Harold for digging these up.

A number of Third World countries took PISA on a trial basis in 2017:

National Reports

Ecuador did the best of these countries, Zambia the worst:

Something fishy happened in Spain:

The OECD has decided to defer the publication of the PISA 2018 reading results, both national and sub-regional, for Spain. Spain’s data met PISA 2018 Technical Standards. However, some data show implausible student-response behaviour. Consequently, at the time of publication of this report, comparability of Spain’s results in reading cannot be assured (see Annex A9). PISA 2018 reading results for Spain are therefore not published in this report. Results in the mathematics and science domains appear less affected by this anomalous response behaviour. Further review will confirm this.

 
Hide 74 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. I’m going to guess that Israel’s high standard deviation and between-school scores are attributable to Jewish-Arab differences.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Prosa123

    Also: Israel doesn't even test its Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) population. Not a small share of their coming high-school population:

    https://i.imgur.com/uV0lfRX.jpg

    Israel's scores, counting excluded groups like Haredim & arabs living in the West Bank (de facto Israeli territory), is probably closer to 400-420 at best. It will continue to fall as time goes on. How long can a very successful smart fraction carry this growing burden?

    Israeli emigration of the highly skilled is increasing.

    , @J
    @Prosa123

    That and the Haredi (religious) sector, which rejects worldly studies.

  2. Dumb people are happy people.

    • Replies: @Peter Johnson
    @Thulean Friend

    Very interesting graph! So unintuitive that I assumed the slope was reversed (this often happens when scores are measured using some reversed scaling).

    Perhaps "life satisfaction" is not a great measure of human achievement? The unexamined life is not worth living, etc.

    , @SFG
    @Thulean Friend

    'Dumb peoples are happy peoples' is probably more precise, as the points on the graph are at the country level. You're picking up a fundamental truth about cultures (and possibly ethnic groups) as a whole, not people within a culture.

    Interesting the US has below-average life satisfaction--we've always been accused of excessive optimism as a nation. Something really has changed.

    , @res
    @Thulean Friend

    That graphic is from page 161 of
    https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/pisa-2018-results-volume-iii_acd78851-en
    One cool feature is they give a link to an Excel spreadsheet with the data:
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888934030325
    They appear to make the data available for ALL of the figures, which is a great feature!

    I thought this graphic from https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2019/12/nine-key-findings-from-pisa-2018/ was interesting.

    https://mk0ffteducation79fru.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/img1.png

    But their source attribution is wrong. It should be:
    OECD PISA 2018 report. Volume II, p60

    There is an amazing amount of data in the three volumes of PISA 2018 Results reports:
    https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/pisa_19963777

    P.S. Here is a link to the within/between school variation data: https://doi.org/10.1787/888934037355
    I was surprised how skewed the US was towards within school variation.

  3. ‘Not surprisingly, Israel has The Bomb and Mexico does not.’

    Pakistan has the bomb, Steve.

    • LOL: songbird
  4. @Prosa123
    I'm going to guess that Israel's high standard deviation and between-school scores are attributable to Jewish-Arab differences.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @J

    Also: Israel doesn’t even test its Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) population. Not a small share of their coming high-school population:

    Israel’s scores, counting excluded groups like Haredim & arabs living in the West Bank (de facto Israeli territory), is probably closer to 400-420 at best. It will continue to fall as time goes on. How long can a very successful smart fraction carry this growing burden?

    Israeli emigration of the highly skilled is increasing.

  5. @Prosa123
    I'm going to guess that Israel's high standard deviation and between-school scores are attributable to Jewish-Arab differences.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @J

    That and the Haredi (religious) sector, which rejects worldly studies.

  6. I think I read that Israel has the highest number of new book titles published each per capita. Or somewhere up there. And that Finland has more new titles published each year than the entire Arab world.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Books_published_per_country_per_year —- Looks like Finland and Denmark have Israel beat, in new titles per capita each year. They must be holed up reading a lot in those high latitude winters with few daylight hours. Winter time it is either beat your wife, make love to her, or drink a lot or read a lot or some combination thereof.

  7. 95th percentile math scores.

    Rank | MathPctl95 | Country

    1 | 716 | BSJZ.China
    2 | 713 | Singapore
    3 | 696 | HongKong.China
    4 | 686 | ChineseTaipei
    5 | 685 | Macao.China
    6 | 684 | Korea
    7 | 668 | Switzerland
    8 | 664 | Japan
    9 | 664 | Netherlands
    10 | 661 | Canada
    11 | 661 | Poland
    12 | 657 | Estonia
    15 | 651 | UnitedKingdom
    17 | 650 | Germany
    18 | 647 | Sweden
    27 | 639 | Finland
    28 | 638 | France
    32 | 634 | OECDavg
    33 | 632 | Israel
    36 | 629 | UnitedStates
    38 | 627 | Russia
    40 | 625 | Ireland
    43 | 619 | VietNam

  8. @Thulean Friend
    https://i.imgur.com/LXHkFBz.jpg

    Dumb people are happy people.

    Replies: @Peter Johnson, @SFG, @res

    Very interesting graph! So unintuitive that I assumed the slope was reversed (this often happens when scores are measured using some reversed scaling).

    Perhaps “life satisfaction” is not a great measure of human achievement? The unexamined life is not worth living, etc.

  9. If you look at OECD averages (thin blue line), there has been a gently declining trend since 2000.

    This is despite an increase of 15% per pupil since the year 2000 (adusting for inflation) across the OECD. We’re getting increasingly less with for each unit of money spent.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    @Thulean Friend

    Once again, the problem is the bulk of the increasing spending is going for special needs students, not regular ones.

  10. Differences between natives and immigrants once adjusted for socio-economic factors. Non-OECD members are in italic. I’ve only looked at relevant countries with >4% immigrant students.

    -74 | Finland
    -55 | Iceland
    -54 | Sweden
    -44 | Lebanon
    -35 | Estonia
    -35 | Czech Republic
    -34 | Denmark
    -33 | Norway
    -33 | Austria
    -28 | Slovenia
    -26 | Portugal
    -25 | Switzerland
    -24 | OECD average
    -23 | Netherlands
    -22 | Greece
    -22 | Italy
    -21 | Belgium
    -17 | Germany
    -13 | France (!)
    -9 | Ireland
    -9 | Belarus
    -8 | New Zealand
    -7 | Russia
    -4 | United Kingdom
    -3 | Croatia
    -1 | Canada

    And the positive balance countries:

    +2 | Serbia
    +6 | Israel
    +7 | Australia
    +12 | Argentina
    +16 | United States (!)
    +32 | Saudi Arabia
    +63 | Qatar
    +64 | United Arab Emirates

    Source document. Pages 21-22.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Thulean Friend

    Countries where 2nd gen immigrants perform better than non-immigrants

    Macau 512 528
    Hong Kong 529 533
    Canada 525 535
    Australia 504 523
    NZ 510 518
    Singapore 546 587
    USA 510 512
    Israel 481 493
    Russia. 480 491

    , @jon
    @Thulean Friend


    +6 | Israel
     
    Doesn't this contradict your emigration brain drain post above?

    +16 | United States (!)
     
    WTF? Any ideas what is going on here?

    +7 | Australia
     
    This one is not too surprising. Australia got a lot of bad press a few years ago for its No Way slogan: https://cnet2.cbsistatic.com/img/whUgiDqBGoesmrP6jAHr65EihXc=/fit-in/970x0/2016/08/16/77be049f-7f5e-4cc3-b8aa-a478ecb31a49/road-trip-no-way-poster-dibp.jpg

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Thulean Friend

    Wait, we're dumber than our immigrants, and Canadians smarter than theirs? The points system isn't working!

    That, or the Latin half of ours aren't being tested.

    And who the hell is immigrating to Saudi Arabia? Or are those the children of Aramco engineers?

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

  11. anon[145] • Disclaimer says:

    Education in Mexico was compulsory through 9th grade, the end of Junior High school until fairly recently. I have been unsuccessful in finding when that was changed, but now education is compulsory through the end of High School (12th grade). A lot of Mexicans are far more than 1 / 1024th Indian, with all sorts of implications. Some rural parts of Mexico were pretty immune to the dangers of Y2K – when you do not have telephone landlines or electricity you won’t notice them going away. That was 20 years ago.

    Mexico in the last 8 to 10 years has invested in youth orchestras all across the country, building some special arts high schools, etc. so there clearly has been a large scale effort to improve primary and secondary education. The low variance is a pleasant surprise, given the ugly violent conflict in many parts of the country.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @anon

    The problem with the low variance in Mexico is that only 1% of students score in the top 2 of the six categories. In other years, Mexico and Turkey were pretty similar scoring on average, but Turkey had a lot more people in the highest category, which seems about right: there aren't many really smart people in Turkey, but they are a small but distinct class. Mexico? I dunno ... Alfonso Cuaron's "Roma" was about growing up the child of Mexico City college professors, but I don't remember much about them seeing themselves as a class.

    Replies: @anon

    , @Jack D
    @anon


    Mexico in the last 8 to 10 years has invested in youth orchestras all across the country, building some special arts high schools, etc.
     
    Because they are not as g loaded, a lot of mixed race Latinos excel in music and arts. Venezuela had a spectacular system of youth orchestras that would be the envy of any country. Mexico has produced some great artists. It's when you get to math and physics and more highly g loaded stuff that they fall short.

    Replies: @anon

  12. Vietnam is missing from this year’s overall report. But they still have a dedicated country report. They only took the test on paper this year (PISA switched to computers in 2015 onwards).

    Coverage ratio in 2015 was a mere 51%. This time it shot up to 70%. A substantial improvement. For whatever reason, their results for the the 95th percentile is available for 2018 but their overall scores are not. Their 95th percentile score is rather low, indicating that the increased coverage ratio has depressed their scores.

    Their overall score in 2015 was around the OECD median. If the pattern between their 95th percentile and median scores hold in 2018 as in 2015, then it would mean that they also probably scored lower than OECD median this year, though not likely by much. Still very impressive when you compare to similarily poor countries and many richer ones. Their high-growth trajectory should continue for a few more decades.

  13. Israel has the highest standard deviation of reading test scores of any country…

    The country’s only subway has a very high standard deviation in regards to elevation:

  14. @anon
    Education in Mexico was compulsory through 9th grade, the end of Junior High school until fairly recently. I have been unsuccessful in finding when that was changed, but now education is compulsory through the end of High School (12th grade). A lot of Mexicans are far more than 1 / 1024th Indian, with all sorts of implications. Some rural parts of Mexico were pretty immune to the dangers of Y2K - when you do not have telephone landlines or electricity you won't notice them going away. That was 20 years ago.

    Mexico in the last 8 to 10 years has invested in youth orchestras all across the country, building some special arts high schools, etc. so there clearly has been a large scale effort to improve primary and secondary education. The low variance is a pleasant surprise, given the ugly violent conflict in many parts of the country.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Jack D

    The problem with the low variance in Mexico is that only 1% of students score in the top 2 of the six categories. In other years, Mexico and Turkey were pretty similar scoring on average, but Turkey had a lot more people in the highest category, which seems about right: there aren’t many really smart people in Turkey, but they are a small but distinct class. Mexico? I dunno … Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” was about growing up the child of Mexico City college professors, but I don’t remember much about them seeing themselves as a class.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Steve Sailer

    The problem with the low variance in Mexico is that only 1% of students score in the top 2 of the six categories.

    Perhaps the g of students in Mexico has a low variance overall? I don't have links handy, but I recall that ordinary Mexicans tend to have a fair amount of Meso-American mtDNA, perhaps that has an effect on g and VAR[g].

    Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” was about growing up the child of Mexico City college professors, but I don’t remember much about them seeing themselves as a class.

    Socially there is a tension between the concept of "mestizaje" ("Mestizoness") and excellence across Latin America. Some wealthy Mexican families have flaunted wealth visibly, while others are more low profile - the kidnapping industry might be a factor.

    Anecdotally when watching a Mexican TV game show the audience looks more Indian while the hosts and many participants look more European. Mexican professionals (PhD's, doctors) that I have worked with sometimes would bemoan the incuriousity of their countrymen; "No one reads anything except comic books! You can't make them study anything beyond what's required!".

    Frankly, I'm just throwing up my hands and saying "Whattaya?" at this point.

  15. @Thulean Friend
    Differences between natives and immigrants once adjusted for socio-economic factors. Non-OECD members are in italic. I've only looked at relevant countries with >4% immigrant students.

    -74 | Finland
    -55 | Iceland
    -54 | Sweden
    -44 | Lebanon
    -35 | Estonia
    -35 | Czech Republic
    -34 | Denmark
    -33 | Norway
    -33 | Austria
    -28 | Slovenia
    -26 | Portugal
    -25 | Switzerland
    -24 | OECD average
    -23 | Netherlands
    -22 | Greece
    -22 | Italy
    -21 | Belgium
    -17 | Germany
    -13 | France (!)
    -9 | Ireland
    -9 | Belarus
    -8 | New Zealand
    -7 | Russia
    -4 | United Kingdom
    -3 | Croatia
    -1 | Canada

    And the positive balance countries:

    +2 | Serbia
    +6 | Israel
    +7 | Australia
    +12 | Argentina
    +16 | United States (!)
    +32 | Saudi Arabia
    +63 | Qatar
    +64 | United Arab Emirates

    Source document. Pages 21-22.

    Replies: @utu, @jon, @Reg Cæsar

    Countries where 2nd gen immigrants perform better than non-immigrants

    Macau 512 528
    Hong Kong 529 533
    Canada 525 535
    Australia 504 523
    NZ 510 518
    Singapore 546 587
    USA 510 512
    Israel 481 493
    Russia. 480 491

  16. @Thulean Friend
    Differences between natives and immigrants once adjusted for socio-economic factors. Non-OECD members are in italic. I've only looked at relevant countries with >4% immigrant students.

    -74 | Finland
    -55 | Iceland
    -54 | Sweden
    -44 | Lebanon
    -35 | Estonia
    -35 | Czech Republic
    -34 | Denmark
    -33 | Norway
    -33 | Austria
    -28 | Slovenia
    -26 | Portugal
    -25 | Switzerland
    -24 | OECD average
    -23 | Netherlands
    -22 | Greece
    -22 | Italy
    -21 | Belgium
    -17 | Germany
    -13 | France (!)
    -9 | Ireland
    -9 | Belarus
    -8 | New Zealand
    -7 | Russia
    -4 | United Kingdom
    -3 | Croatia
    -1 | Canada

    And the positive balance countries:

    +2 | Serbia
    +6 | Israel
    +7 | Australia
    +12 | Argentina
    +16 | United States (!)
    +32 | Saudi Arabia
    +63 | Qatar
    +64 | United Arab Emirates

    Source document. Pages 21-22.

    Replies: @utu, @jon, @Reg Cæsar

    +6 | Israel

    Doesn’t this contradict your emigration brain drain post above?

    +16 | United States (!)

    WTF? Any ideas what is going on here?

    +7 | Australia

    This one is not too surprising. Australia got a lot of bad press a few years ago for its No Way slogan:

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @jon


    Doesn’t this contradict your emigration brain drain post above?
     
    Most people of immigrant origin in Israel are Russian speakers (who were above-average in their countries). And no, it doesn't because this was a one-off shock in the 1990s.

    It's perfectly possible for two things to be true at once: A) Israel's largely Russian-speaking migrant population does better than natives and B) even among them, some may prefer to live abroad, and increasingly do.


    WTF? Any ideas what is going on with the US?
     
    Remember: these scores are adjusted for socio-economic factors.

    Many poor natives in the US are blacks and even quite a few latinos. Whites do really well so their share of the lowest-performing groups are reasonably low. As this is a relative score, the immigrants' comparison would be against similarily poor natives. It is well known that many immigrants, while still being cognitively above-average of their countries, are quite poor in the US when they first arrive. Chinatowns in NYC is known for this, where people live in squalid poverty yet their 2nd gen offspring do remarkably well. That is a pattern replicated in many other communities, from African, Central Asian, South-East Asian etc.

    As mentioned, the US has a more cognitively demanding immigration system than many give it credit for. This shift started in the 1990s in earnest, accelerated in the 2000s and then when the Mexican boom died down in the post-GFC of 2008 era, it shifted even more towards highly skilled migrants, particularly from Asia but also from Europe and even quite a few from LatAm. But these trends were already prevalent well before the GFC of 2008.

    If you had looked at raw absolute values, my guess is that the US would have seen a negative (though still much less so than Sweden's) score between natives and immigrants. I want access to the raw, unadjusted numbers. I would also want a racial breakdown on these numbers, both adjusted for socio-economic factors as well the raw numbers. My guess is that we'd have to wait for that granular data until it is produced by the department of education in the US for some deep-dive 2018 PISA report with a focus solely on the US education system.

  17. @Thulean Friend
    Differences between natives and immigrants once adjusted for socio-economic factors. Non-OECD members are in italic. I've only looked at relevant countries with >4% immigrant students.

    -74 | Finland
    -55 | Iceland
    -54 | Sweden
    -44 | Lebanon
    -35 | Estonia
    -35 | Czech Republic
    -34 | Denmark
    -33 | Norway
    -33 | Austria
    -28 | Slovenia
    -26 | Portugal
    -25 | Switzerland
    -24 | OECD average
    -23 | Netherlands
    -22 | Greece
    -22 | Italy
    -21 | Belgium
    -17 | Germany
    -13 | France (!)
    -9 | Ireland
    -9 | Belarus
    -8 | New Zealand
    -7 | Russia
    -4 | United Kingdom
    -3 | Croatia
    -1 | Canada

    And the positive balance countries:

    +2 | Serbia
    +6 | Israel
    +7 | Australia
    +12 | Argentina
    +16 | United States (!)
    +32 | Saudi Arabia
    +63 | Qatar
    +64 | United Arab Emirates

    Source document. Pages 21-22.

    Replies: @utu, @jon, @Reg Cæsar

    Wait, we’re dumber than our immigrants, and Canadians smarter than theirs? The points system isn’t working!

    That, or the Latin half of ours aren’t being tested.

    And who the hell is immigrating to Saudi Arabia? Or are those the children of Aramco engineers?

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Reg Cæsar


    And who the hell is immigrating to Saudi Arabia?
     
    Either highly skilled professionals, mostly from the West, or largely South Asian labourers. However, there has been a growing share of South Asian professionals in the gulf countries, too.

    If you look at Mauritius (50% Indian population, and not drawn from their high-caste elite), their top 5% performs around the same as the OECD in TIMSS. In Singapore, Indians are mostly drawn from the descendants indentured labour class, at least up to 1990, yet were earning almost 90% of what Chinese did in 1990 and now outearn them.

    India and South Asia in general are really bad at educating their youth at home, but they tend to do okay abroad.

    Replies: @John Arthur, @John Arthur

  18. @jon
    @Thulean Friend


    +6 | Israel
     
    Doesn't this contradict your emigration brain drain post above?

    +16 | United States (!)
     
    WTF? Any ideas what is going on here?

    +7 | Australia
     
    This one is not too surprising. Australia got a lot of bad press a few years ago for its No Way slogan: https://cnet2.cbsistatic.com/img/whUgiDqBGoesmrP6jAHr65EihXc=/fit-in/970x0/2016/08/16/77be049f-7f5e-4cc3-b8aa-a478ecb31a49/road-trip-no-way-poster-dibp.jpg

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    Doesn’t this contradict your emigration brain drain post above?

    Most people of immigrant origin in Israel are Russian speakers (who were above-average in their countries). And no, it doesn’t because this was a one-off shock in the 1990s.

    It’s perfectly possible for two things to be true at once: A) Israel’s largely Russian-speaking migrant population does better than natives and B) even among them, some may prefer to live abroad, and increasingly do.

    WTF? Any ideas what is going on with the US?

    Remember: these scores are adjusted for socio-economic factors.

    Many poor natives in the US are blacks and even quite a few latinos. Whites do really well so their share of the lowest-performing groups are reasonably low. As this is a relative score, the immigrants’ comparison would be against similarily poor natives. It is well known that many immigrants, while still being cognitively above-average of their countries, are quite poor in the US when they first arrive. Chinatowns in NYC is known for this, where people live in squalid poverty yet their 2nd gen offspring do remarkably well. That is a pattern replicated in many other communities, from African, Central Asian, South-East Asian etc.

    As mentioned, the US has a more cognitively demanding immigration system than many give it credit for. This shift started in the 1990s in earnest, accelerated in the 2000s and then when the Mexican boom died down in the post-GFC of 2008 era, it shifted even more towards highly skilled migrants, particularly from Asia but also from Europe and even quite a few from LatAm. But these trends were already prevalent well before the GFC of 2008.

    If you had looked at raw absolute values, my guess is that the US would have seen a negative (though still much less so than Sweden’s) score between natives and immigrants. I want access to the raw, unadjusted numbers. I would also want a racial breakdown on these numbers, both adjusted for socio-economic factors as well the raw numbers. My guess is that we’d have to wait for that granular data until it is produced by the department of education in the US for some deep-dive 2018 PISA report with a focus solely on the US education system.

  19. @Reg Cæsar
    @Thulean Friend

    Wait, we're dumber than our immigrants, and Canadians smarter than theirs? The points system isn't working!

    That, or the Latin half of ours aren't being tested.

    And who the hell is immigrating to Saudi Arabia? Or are those the children of Aramco engineers?

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    And who the hell is immigrating to Saudi Arabia?

    Either highly skilled professionals, mostly from the West, or largely South Asian labourers. However, there has been a growing share of South Asian professionals in the gulf countries, too.

    If you look at Mauritius (50% Indian population, and not drawn from their high-caste elite), their top 5% performs around the same as the OECD in TIMSS. In Singapore, Indians are mostly drawn from the descendants indentured labour class, at least up to 1990, yet were earning almost 90% of what Chinese did in 1990 and now outearn them.

    India and South Asia in general are really bad at educating their youth at home, but they tend to do okay abroad.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @John Arthur
    @Thulean Friend

    Thulean,
    Check out the data on ethnicity and social performance for the United Kingdom. You will be quite interested to find out that on many metrics that the South Asian population does as well as Whites in many respects, better in others, and worse on some. Overall, not a bad overall performance at all.

    , @John Arthur
    @Thulean Friend

    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/11-to-16-years-old/pupil-progress-progress-8-between-ages-11-and-16-key-stage-2-to-key-stage-4/latest#by-ethnicity
    Sorry, I forgot to link the data

  20. Your point about the surprisingly low variance in Mexico reminded me of Greg Cochran recently arguing whether we should expect Saudi Arabian wealth to result in more brains.


    I’m curious what the variance is there, although it’s possible that the really wealthy royals don’t take part in such tests.

    • Agree: jim jones
  21. Anon[241] • Disclaimer says:

    Am I wrong, or does the fact that we know the mean and standard deviation let us convert the scores to IQ scores? Maybe not accurate on an individual kid basis, but sort of accurate on a country level. Map the United States mean to 100, or 98, or whatever it is, then scale the number of points between the mean and SD to 15, then make a chart showing equivalent IQ for each score, or a conversion formula.

    After all, any test with a cognitive component is an IQ test with noise, and as n approaches a high number, the influence of the noise approaches zero.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    Rindermann has done a lot of work on that approach -- pretty high correlation between national PISA, TIMSS, and IQ validation scores. On the other hand, there is still a fair amount of noise so it's hard to say for sure that one European country is smarter than another.

    Replies: @utu

  22. @Anon
    Am I wrong, or does the fact that we know the mean and standard deviation let us convert the scores to IQ scores? Maybe not accurate on an individual kid basis, but sort of accurate on a country level. Map the United States mean to 100, or 98, or whatever it is, then scale the number of points between the mean and SD to 15, then make a chart showing equivalent IQ for each score, or a conversion formula.

    After all, any test with a cognitive component is an IQ test with noise, and as n approaches a high number, the influence of the noise approaches zero.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Rindermann has done a lot of work on that approach — pretty high correlation between national PISA, TIMSS, and IQ validation scores. On the other hand, there is still a fair amount of noise so it’s hard to say for sure that one European country is smarter than another.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Steve Sailer

    "there is still a fair amount of noise " - It is likely that there is more noise in IQ data than PISA or TIMSS.

  23. Pisa-Schock: Jeder fünfte 15-Jährige kann kaum lesen — 2018 PISA results: 20% of “German” 15 year olds can barely read

    This is for all students, ie also those attending an academic HS (Gymnasium), where the smarter kids go — they are expected to attend a university (and can no doubt read at an appropriate level).

    In den nicht gymnasialen Schulen liegt ihr Anteil je nach Bundesland sogar bei 30, 40 oder sogar 50 Prozent. „Das ist dramatisch.“

    Looking just at kids in the non-academic secondary schools, the fraction of 15 year olds who can barely read is 30% – 50%, depending on Bundesland.

    Another article:

    Lehrer stehen auf verlorenem Posten — Teachers feel left alone to deal with difficult conditions in schools

    Fehlende Förderung und mangelnde Integration sind schuld am schlechten PISA-Ergebnis. In Klassen mit vielen Kindern, die (noch) kein Deutsch sprechen, kämpfen Lehrerinnen und Lehrer oft auf verlorenem Posten.

    Lack of support at home and in school — ‘failed integration’ — classes with many students who don’t speak German (or well enough).

    Auf der Suche nach Schuldigen an den PISA-Ergebnissen scheinen die Täter schnell ausgemacht: Kinder mit Migrationshintergrund. Doch liegt das Problem nicht bei ebendiesen.

    Generally it’s quickly agreed the cause of the problem is kids with a migrant background — but that’s not where the problem lies …

    Gute Bildung ist eine Frage des Geldes. Noch ist sie eine Frage des Geldes der Eltern. Das muss sich für echte Chancengleichheit unbedingt ändern.

    A good education is a question of money — it’s still a question of how much money the parents have (earn) — that must change so all kids have a fair chance.

    You see this kind of childish intellectual dishonesty again and again in DE, where racial/ethnic differences in IQ, even an IQ distribution among ethnic Germans, and the effects of that on success in school and in the job market, is still a taboo subject (recall the Jena Declaration).

    And here is the foto of children they use for an article about poor PISA results, which everyone knows are primarily due to Kinder mit Migrationshintergrund:

    • Replies: @eah
    @eah

    'Decisive for IQ is access to education'

    https://twitter.com/UniJena/status/1199727484905951235

    , @Lurker
    @eah

    Photo is perfect example of this sub-genre of The Agenda™. Stories of educational problems, falling scores or overcrowded classes are almost always illustrated with white kids.

  24. @eah
    Pisa-Schock: Jeder fünfte 15-Jährige kann kaum lesen -- 2018 PISA results: 20% of "German" 15 year olds can barely read

    This is for all students, ie also those attending an academic HS (Gymnasium), where the smarter kids go -- they are expected to attend a university (and can no doubt read at an appropriate level).

    In den nicht gymnasialen Schulen liegt ihr Anteil je nach Bundesland sogar bei 30, 40 oder sogar 50 Prozent. „Das ist dramatisch.“

    Looking just at kids in the non-academic secondary schools, the fraction of 15 year olds who can barely read is 30% - 50%, depending on Bundesland.

    Another article:

    Lehrer stehen auf verlorenem Posten -- Teachers feel left alone to deal with difficult conditions in schools

    Fehlende Förderung und mangelnde Integration sind schuld am schlechten PISA-Ergebnis. In Klassen mit vielen Kindern, die (noch) kein Deutsch sprechen, kämpfen Lehrerinnen und Lehrer oft auf verlorenem Posten.

    Lack of support at home and in school -- 'failed integration' -- classes with many students who don't speak German (or well enough).

    Auf der Suche nach Schuldigen an den PISA-Ergebnissen scheinen die Täter schnell ausgemacht: Kinder mit Migrationshintergrund. Doch liegt das Problem nicht bei ebendiesen.

    Generally it's quickly agreed the cause of the problem is kids with a migrant background -- but that's not where the problem lies ...

    Gute Bildung ist eine Frage des Geldes. Noch ist sie eine Frage des Geldes der Eltern. Das muss sich für echte Chancengleichheit unbedingt ändern.

    A good education is a question of money -- it's still a question of how much money the parents have (earn) -- that must change so all kids have a fair chance.

    You see this kind of childish intellectual dishonesty again and again in DE, where racial/ethnic differences in IQ, even an IQ distribution among ethnic Germans, and the effects of that on success in school and in the job market, is still a taboo subject (recall the Jena Declaration).

    And here is the foto of children they use for an article about poor PISA results, which everyone knows are primarily due to Kinder mit Migrationshintergrund:
    https://bilder.bild.de/fotos-skaliert/ergebnis-bei-pisa-studie-lehrer-stehen-auf-verlorenem-posten-201276153-66455074/5,w=1489,q=low,c=0.bild.jpg

    Replies: @eah, @Lurker

    ‘Decisive for IQ is access to education’

  25. @Steve Sailer
    @Anon

    Rindermann has done a lot of work on that approach -- pretty high correlation between national PISA, TIMSS, and IQ validation scores. On the other hand, there is still a fair amount of noise so it's hard to say for sure that one European country is smarter than another.

    Replies: @utu

    “there is still a fair amount of noise ” – It is likely that there is more noise in IQ data than PISA or TIMSS.

  26. @Thulean Friend
    If you look at OECD averages (thin blue line), there has been a gently declining trend since 2000.

    https://i.imgur.com/8IjmF4H.jpg

    This is despite an increase of 15% per pupil since the year 2000 (adusting for inflation) across the OECD. We're getting increasingly less with for each unit of money spent.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer

    Once again, the problem is the bulk of the increasing spending is going for special needs students, not regular ones.

  27. I suppose that results in Israel depend on the distinction between the people principally descended from the Judaeans of the Life of Brian period, and the descendants of the Jewish immigrants from 1900 onwards.

  28. @Thulean Friend
    https://i.imgur.com/LXHkFBz.jpg

    Dumb people are happy people.

    Replies: @Peter Johnson, @SFG, @res

    ‘Dumb peoples are happy peoples’ is probably more precise, as the points on the graph are at the country level. You’re picking up a fundamental truth about cultures (and possibly ethnic groups) as a whole, not people within a culture.

    Interesting the US has below-average life satisfaction–we’ve always been accused of excessive optimism as a nation. Something really has changed.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
  29. Israel has the most Between School variation, followed by Lebanon and Netherlands.

    What’s up with the Netherlands?

  30. in Israel the average ashkenazi jew is in the 102-105 range , roughly the same as east asians, sephardic and Mizrahim jews iq is below the average white american iq of 99-100.

  31. May I ask: who is “we”, and what is “not at all bad” about a situation where 1) the fastest growing demographic (Hispanics) does relatively poorly, and 2) the largest racial/ethnic group that does “not at all bad” (Whites) has been, as a demographic fraction, (fairly rapidly) declining for decades, particularly in the school-age/future worker population (Census: Minority youth overtake whites in 2020, 50% under 18) — ?

    And Blacks, the worst performing group by far, are not only growing in absolute numbers, but also as a population fraction (albeit more slowly than Hispanics and Asians) — while the “not at all bad” white population is actually declining, both in absolute numbers and as a population fraction (America’s white population shrinks for the first time as nation ages; Fewer Births Than Deaths Among Whites in Majority of U.S. States).

    Aren’t you the guy who regularly says the US is ‘running out of white kids’ to help school performance? — you could have just as easily said/tweeted that the data shows that “we” have the above-mentioned rather serious problem, right?

    It’s rather strange — ?

    • Replies: @eah
    @eah

    "And Blacks, the worst performing group by far, are not only growing in absolute numbers, but also as a population fraction (albeit more slowly than Hispanics and Asians)"

    https://twitter.com/NationalistTV/status/1195916576572235776

  32. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/pisa-2018-few-reactions-new-global-education-rankings

    Intelligent commentary on both the 2018 PISA report & some long-term conclusions.

  33. Eeh, nowadays everyone and their dog just makes the education system in such a way to get a bigger score

    It’s why Serbia has bad scores but keeps getting gold at math and physics olympiads

  34. anon[230] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    @anon

    The problem with the low variance in Mexico is that only 1% of students score in the top 2 of the six categories. In other years, Mexico and Turkey were pretty similar scoring on average, but Turkey had a lot more people in the highest category, which seems about right: there aren't many really smart people in Turkey, but they are a small but distinct class. Mexico? I dunno ... Alfonso Cuaron's "Roma" was about growing up the child of Mexico City college professors, but I don't remember much about them seeing themselves as a class.

    Replies: @anon

    The problem with the low variance in Mexico is that only 1% of students score in the top 2 of the six categories.

    Perhaps the g of students in Mexico has a low variance overall? I don’t have links handy, but I recall that ordinary Mexicans tend to have a fair amount of Meso-American mtDNA, perhaps that has an effect on g and VAR[g].

    Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” was about growing up the child of Mexico City college professors, but I don’t remember much about them seeing themselves as a class.

    Socially there is a tension between the concept of “mestizaje” (“Mestizoness”) and excellence across Latin America. Some wealthy Mexican families have flaunted wealth visibly, while others are more low profile – the kidnapping industry might be a factor.

    Anecdotally when watching a Mexican TV game show the audience looks more Indian while the hosts and many participants look more European. Mexican professionals (PhD’s, doctors) that I have worked with sometimes would bemoan the incuriousity of their countrymen; “No one reads anything except comic books! You can’t make them study anything beyond what’s required!”.

    Frankly, I’m just throwing up my hands and saying “Whattaya?” at this point.

  35. Steve Sailer, I’m sure you know more about statistics than I do, but I don’t understand these figures you’re calling standard deviations. I’m ready to believe that Israelis are one, maybe even one and a half standard deviations above the mean, but how can the country have an SD of 124? And what does mean standard variation mean? Sounds like a mishmash.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Tono Bungay

    Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the scores are. You can have two groups with the same average say height. Say Group A is an American classroom - there are some really tall Dutchmen who are over 6', there are some shrimpy Asians and Latinos who are 5'6". There is even a pygmy guy who is 5' 1" and a Watusi who is 6' 11" , but when you average them out the average of all of them is 5'9". And lets say Group B is a Hungarian classroom. Everyone is about the same height. There are some guys who are 5'10" and some who are 5'8" and a lot of guys who are exactly 5'9". The shortest guy is 5'7" and the tallest is 5'11", but when you average that group the average height also happens to be 5'9". We would say that Group A has a larger "standard deviation" than Group B . If you looked at a graph of the number of people with each height, both groups would probably form a bell shaped curve (the most frequent height is usually at or near the average and there are fewer and fewer as you go toward each extreme ) but the Group A curve would be a low wide bell and the Group B curve would be a high narrow bell.

    Standard deviation is important to know because if you looked at just the averages you'd say that the average height in Group A and Group B are the same so both groups must be similar but we know that they aren't - the average doesn't tell the whole story.

  36. NZ’s Maori are all at minimum 50% white. There is a large benefit to being Maori so someone that is 1/32 Maori is extremely likely to identify as Maori for statistical purposes.
    People identifying as Pacific Islanders are very likely to be 100% Tongan, Fijian etc or a mixture of different Pacific Island groups.

  37. It would be interesting to break up Israel’s scores the way the US scores were broken out – as Steve pointed out, American whites are about as good as any other whites, American blacks are as good as any other blacks, etc. In the end your position is going to be more determined by your racial stock than anything else. (Racial stock doesn’t just mean black and white – Poles and Romanians are both white but they are different kinds of white).

    In Israel’s case, you are going to have a small (and declining) fraction who are purebred secular Ashkenazis who are going to be at the top. Sephardic (and particularly Mizrahi) Jews are not known for their intellect. Arabs – we know what they are like.

    The Haredi are an interesting case because they are of mostly Ashkenazi stock and are a sort of reserve army of smart genes waiting to be liberated, just as the shtetl Jews of Europe sat in reserve for centuries. Although maybe there has been some sort of adverse selection and most of the smart Haredi became secular long ago?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Jack D

    For PISA, it's not to do with different races.

    PISA does not measure intelligence, but cultural ability, or question decoding.*

    This is why there is probably so much variation between schools in Israel, in particular - because is one of the few countries that operate parallel school systems.

    It's possible, in Hebrew schools they have told the students about the test, and prepared for it. While in the Arab school they do not prepare for the exam.

    If it was a normal exam, that is no problem. But PISA is question decoding exam, and will confuse most children who do not have experience with the format.

    Hebrew schools were above OECD average for the exam (here is likely an indication of exam preparation) but the Arabic schools were near the bottom (most children must be confused by the exam).


    -


    https://img.wcdn.co.il/f_auto,w_700/2/9/5/6/2956612-46.jpg

    Blue is the Hebrew-speaking school system's results for 2018.

    Green is the Arabic-speaking school system's results for 2018.

    Yellow is the average of developed (OECD member) countries.

    Red is Israel's composite score (combination of Hebrew and Arabic systems' results).


    https://news.walla.co.il/item/3327263
    -

    *I'm sure there will be real difference in distribution of academic abilities between races, but this shows at university with real exams.

  38. Buried deep in the PISA report is this fascinating chart.

    So Finland managed to get very respectable scores despite spending fairly light amount of time in school whereas the four Chinese provinces were literal slavemarkets by comparison. Pity UAE and Thailand who put in huge amounts of work with nothing to show for it.

    If you manage to achieve a lot with much less input than most other people it has a name: productivity.

    • Replies: @res
    @Thulean Friend

    Thanks! That is an interesting chart. Not sure if it is obvious to everyone, but Figure I.4.5 means it is in volume I (page 67). Their total learning time includes both in and out of school time. Here is some explanatory text.


    PISA 2015 highlighted significant differences in the hours of instruction per week among 15-year-old students. Students in Beijing-Shanghai-Jiangsu-Guangdong (China) (hereafter “B-S-J-G [China]”), Chile, Costa Rica, Korea, Chinese Taipei, Thailand and Tunisia spent at least 30 hours per week in regular lessons (all subjects combined), while students in Brazil, Bulgaria, Finland, Lithuania, the Slovak Republic and Uruguay spent less than 25 hours per week. Even larger differences were found in the amount of time that students spent learning outside of regular lessons, i.e. doing homework, taking additional instruction or attending private study. All subjects combined, students in B-S-J-G (China), the Dominican Republic, Qatar, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates reported that they studied at least 25 hours per week in addition to the required school schedule; in Finland, Germany, Iceland, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland, they studied less than 15 hours per week outside of school (OECD, 2016, pp. 209-217[4]).

    Based on information about learning time collected in PISA 2015,14 Figure I.4.5 shows the widely varied combinations of total How did countries perform in PISA 2018?4 learning time and performance that can be observed across PISA countries and economies. Countries in the upper-left quadrant can be considered more efficient, in that students reach above-average levels of proficiency but devote less time to learning than 15-year-old students on average across OECD countries. This group includes Finland, Germany, Japan and Sweden. By contrast, in several high-performing countries and economies, including B-S-J-Z (China), Korea and Singapore, students reported spending more than 50 hours per week attending regular lessons or in additional learning activities.
     
    In particular, notice the difference between Finland and the US in time spent out of school. It looks like that explains essentially all of the difference in total learning time between the two countries.

    Figure I.4.4 Reading performance and spending on education
    is also interesting (on page 66)
    , @EH
    @Thulean Friend

    It looks like a modest but significant negative correlation between scores and education time, even if you just look at the ones above 450, or even just Chinese in the main cluster (Macao-Hong Kong - Taipei). It looks like Singapore and mainland big-city China could potentially gain 50 points by reducing study by 10-15 hours per week.

    Replies: @res

  39. @anon
    Education in Mexico was compulsory through 9th grade, the end of Junior High school until fairly recently. I have been unsuccessful in finding when that was changed, but now education is compulsory through the end of High School (12th grade). A lot of Mexicans are far more than 1 / 1024th Indian, with all sorts of implications. Some rural parts of Mexico were pretty immune to the dangers of Y2K - when you do not have telephone landlines or electricity you won't notice them going away. That was 20 years ago.

    Mexico in the last 8 to 10 years has invested in youth orchestras all across the country, building some special arts high schools, etc. so there clearly has been a large scale effort to improve primary and secondary education. The low variance is a pleasant surprise, given the ugly violent conflict in many parts of the country.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Jack D

    Mexico in the last 8 to 10 years has invested in youth orchestras all across the country, building some special arts high schools, etc.

    Because they are not as g loaded, a lot of mixed race Latinos excel in music and arts. Venezuela had a spectacular system of youth orchestras that would be the envy of any country. Mexico has produced some great artists. It’s when you get to math and physics and more highly g loaded stuff that they fall short.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Jack D

    Because they are not as g loaded, a lot of mixed race Latinos excel in music and arts.

    High verbal among other things.

    Venezuela had a spectacular system of youth orchestras that would be the envy of any country.

    Had. Past tense. El Sistema is very likely the basis for Mexico's music system.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Sistema

    There is some link between playing / singing classical music and mathematics, but it isn't as simple as "Baby Mozart" of years ago. However it can't be a bad idea to encourage preteens and teens to learn an instrument, the discipline of showing up / practicing and performing. It's probably a better government expenditure than a lot other stuff Mexico is spending money on.


    @Tono Bungay

    Standard deviation and variance are related via a simple operation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

  40. @Thulean Friend
    https://i.imgur.com/LXHkFBz.jpg

    Dumb people are happy people.

    Replies: @Peter Johnson, @SFG, @res

    That graphic is from page 161 of
    https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/pisa-2018-results-volume-iii_acd78851-en
    One cool feature is they give a link to an Excel spreadsheet with the data:
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888934030325
    They appear to make the data available for ALL of the figures, which is a great feature!

    I thought this graphic from https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2019/12/nine-key-findings-from-pisa-2018/ was interesting.

    But their source attribution is wrong. It should be:
    OECD PISA 2018 report. Volume II, p60

    There is an amazing amount of data in the three volumes of PISA 2018 Results reports:
    https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/pisa_19963777

    P.S. Here is a link to the within/between school variation data: https://doi.org/10.1787/888934037355
    I was surprised how skewed the US was towards within school variation.

  41. @Tono Bungay
    Steve Sailer, I'm sure you know more about statistics than I do, but I don't understand these figures you're calling standard deviations. I'm ready to believe that Israelis are one, maybe even one and a half standard deviations above the mean, but how can the country have an SD of 124? And what does mean standard variation mean? Sounds like a mishmash.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the scores are. You can have two groups with the same average say height. Say Group A is an American classroom – there are some really tall Dutchmen who are over 6′, there are some shrimpy Asians and Latinos who are 5’6″. There is even a pygmy guy who is 5′ 1″ and a Watusi who is 6′ 11″ , but when you average them out the average of all of them is 5’9″. And lets say Group B is a Hungarian classroom. Everyone is about the same height. There are some guys who are 5’10” and some who are 5’8″ and a lot of guys who are exactly 5’9″. The shortest guy is 5’7″ and the tallest is 5’11”, but when you average that group the average height also happens to be 5’9″. We would say that Group A has a larger “standard deviation” than Group B . If you looked at a graph of the number of people with each height, both groups would probably form a bell shaped curve (the most frequent height is usually at or near the average and there are fewer and fewer as you go toward each extreme ) but the Group A curve would be a low wide bell and the Group B curve would be a high narrow bell.

    Standard deviation is important to know because if you looked at just the averages you’d say that the average height in Group A and Group B are the same so both groups must be similar but we know that they aren’t – the average doesn’t tell the whole story.

  42. @Thulean Friend
    @Reg Cæsar


    And who the hell is immigrating to Saudi Arabia?
     
    Either highly skilled professionals, mostly from the West, or largely South Asian labourers. However, there has been a growing share of South Asian professionals in the gulf countries, too.

    If you look at Mauritius (50% Indian population, and not drawn from their high-caste elite), their top 5% performs around the same as the OECD in TIMSS. In Singapore, Indians are mostly drawn from the descendants indentured labour class, at least up to 1990, yet were earning almost 90% of what Chinese did in 1990 and now outearn them.

    India and South Asia in general are really bad at educating their youth at home, but they tend to do okay abroad.

    Replies: @John Arthur, @John Arthur

    Thulean,
    Check out the data on ethnicity and social performance for the United Kingdom. You will be quite interested to find out that on many metrics that the South Asian population does as well as Whites in many respects, better in others, and worse on some. Overall, not a bad overall performance at all.

  43. @Thulean Friend
    @Reg Cæsar


    And who the hell is immigrating to Saudi Arabia?
     
    Either highly skilled professionals, mostly from the West, or largely South Asian labourers. However, there has been a growing share of South Asian professionals in the gulf countries, too.

    If you look at Mauritius (50% Indian population, and not drawn from their high-caste elite), their top 5% performs around the same as the OECD in TIMSS. In Singapore, Indians are mostly drawn from the descendants indentured labour class, at least up to 1990, yet were earning almost 90% of what Chinese did in 1990 and now outearn them.

    India and South Asia in general are really bad at educating their youth at home, but they tend to do okay abroad.

    Replies: @John Arthur, @John Arthur

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
  44. Israeli sources attempt to explain Israel’s poor performance on PISA
    as being due to lack of discipline (high levels of truancy, tardiness, talking in
    class, etc) plus the students’ focus on IDF (Israel Defense Forces) to the detriment
    of the academic subjects.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Anon 2

    PISA is mainly testing cultural conformity, with confusing questions that children have to decode. For children to score "higher", it requires that teachers prepare the students for this type of testing, so they can decode the questions.

    In Israel, it is likely the Arabic schools have not prepared the children for the exam (while from the results, it seems like Hebrew schools probably wasted some lessons to prepare the children).

    Israel has a laissez faire attitude for different nationalities' education and religion, where they are expected to self-organize within their own community/tribe.

    In Israel, there are parallel school systems for: Hebrew, Arabic and also Yiddish. Now more and more Arabs - especially Bedouin - go to Hebrew schools, but the majority of Arab youth are still lost in Arabic-schools.

    -

    Arabic schools obviously have not prepared their children for the PISA exam (I would almost say good for them):

    https://i.imgur.com/VG7q9Ee.jpg


    -

    Should Israel worry about this? No, because PISA is not important, except that it shows the lack of co-ordination of Hebrew-schools with Arabic-schools. Arabic schools in Israel reportedly teach different politics, including radicalism, - and that is real problem of their lack of amalgamation to a single education system.

  45. @eah
    Pisa-Schock: Jeder fünfte 15-Jährige kann kaum lesen -- 2018 PISA results: 20% of "German" 15 year olds can barely read

    This is for all students, ie also those attending an academic HS (Gymnasium), where the smarter kids go -- they are expected to attend a university (and can no doubt read at an appropriate level).

    In den nicht gymnasialen Schulen liegt ihr Anteil je nach Bundesland sogar bei 30, 40 oder sogar 50 Prozent. „Das ist dramatisch.“

    Looking just at kids in the non-academic secondary schools, the fraction of 15 year olds who can barely read is 30% - 50%, depending on Bundesland.

    Another article:

    Lehrer stehen auf verlorenem Posten -- Teachers feel left alone to deal with difficult conditions in schools

    Fehlende Förderung und mangelnde Integration sind schuld am schlechten PISA-Ergebnis. In Klassen mit vielen Kindern, die (noch) kein Deutsch sprechen, kämpfen Lehrerinnen und Lehrer oft auf verlorenem Posten.

    Lack of support at home and in school -- 'failed integration' -- classes with many students who don't speak German (or well enough).

    Auf der Suche nach Schuldigen an den PISA-Ergebnissen scheinen die Täter schnell ausgemacht: Kinder mit Migrationshintergrund. Doch liegt das Problem nicht bei ebendiesen.

    Generally it's quickly agreed the cause of the problem is kids with a migrant background -- but that's not where the problem lies ...

    Gute Bildung ist eine Frage des Geldes. Noch ist sie eine Frage des Geldes der Eltern. Das muss sich für echte Chancengleichheit unbedingt ändern.

    A good education is a question of money -- it's still a question of how much money the parents have (earn) -- that must change so all kids have a fair chance.

    You see this kind of childish intellectual dishonesty again and again in DE, where racial/ethnic differences in IQ, even an IQ distribution among ethnic Germans, and the effects of that on success in school and in the job market, is still a taboo subject (recall the Jena Declaration).

    And here is the foto of children they use for an article about poor PISA results, which everyone knows are primarily due to Kinder mit Migrationshintergrund:
    https://bilder.bild.de/fotos-skaliert/ergebnis-bei-pisa-studie-lehrer-stehen-auf-verlorenem-posten-201276153-66455074/5,w=1489,q=low,c=0.bild.jpg

    Replies: @eah, @Lurker

    Photo is perfect example of this sub-genre of The Agenda™. Stories of educational problems, falling scores or overcrowded classes are almost always illustrated with white kids.

  46. Plucky, unassuming Portugal doing better than expected, as usual. Too bad Spain isn’t on the list. Maybe there won’t be any “irregularities” in the 2019 results.

    I also do not trust the Chinese. They are known for cheating and “saving face.”

    • Replies: @BB753
    @OP

    So, why did Spain cheat too? To save face?

  47. anon[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    @anon


    Mexico in the last 8 to 10 years has invested in youth orchestras all across the country, building some special arts high schools, etc.
     
    Because they are not as g loaded, a lot of mixed race Latinos excel in music and arts. Venezuela had a spectacular system of youth orchestras that would be the envy of any country. Mexico has produced some great artists. It's when you get to math and physics and more highly g loaded stuff that they fall short.

    Replies: @anon

    Because they are not as g loaded, a lot of mixed race Latinos excel in music and arts.

    High verbal among other things.

    Venezuela had a spectacular system of youth orchestras that would be the envy of any country.

    Had. Past tense. El Sistema is very likely the basis for Mexico’s music system.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Sistema

    There is some link between playing / singing classical music and mathematics, but it isn’t as simple as “Baby Mozart” of years ago. However it can’t be a bad idea to encourage preteens and teens to learn an instrument, the discipline of showing up / practicing and performing. It’s probably a better government expenditure than a lot other stuff Mexico is spending money on.

    Standard deviation and variance are related via a simple operation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

    • Agree: nymom
  48. @Anon 2
    Israeli sources attempt to explain Israel’s poor performance on PISA
    as being due to lack of discipline (high levels of truancy, tardiness, talking in
    class, etc) plus the students’ focus on IDF (Israel Defense Forces) to the detriment
    of the academic subjects.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    PISA is mainly testing cultural conformity, with confusing questions that children have to decode. For children to score “higher”, it requires that teachers prepare the students for this type of testing, so they can decode the questions.

    In Israel, it is likely the Arabic schools have not prepared the children for the exam (while from the results, it seems like Hebrew schools probably wasted some lessons to prepare the children).

    Israel has a laissez faire attitude for different nationalities’ education and religion, where they are expected to self-organize within their own community/tribe.

    In Israel, there are parallel school systems for: Hebrew, Arabic and also Yiddish. Now more and more Arabs – especially Bedouin – go to Hebrew schools, but the majority of Arab youth are still lost in Arabic-schools.

    Arabic schools obviously have not prepared their children for the PISA exam (I would almost say good for them):

    Should Israel worry about this? No, because PISA is not important, except that it shows the lack of co-ordination of Hebrew-schools with Arabic-schools. Arabic schools in Israel reportedly teach different politics, including radicalism, – and that is real problem of their lack of amalgamation to a single education system.

  49. @Thulean Friend
    Buried deep in the PISA report is this fascinating chart.

    https://i.imgur.com/TWfD94r.jpg

    So Finland managed to get very respectable scores despite spending fairly light amount of time in school whereas the four Chinese provinces were literal slavemarkets by comparison. Pity UAE and Thailand who put in huge amounts of work with nothing to show for it.

    If you manage to achieve a lot with much less input than most other people it has a name: productivity.

    Replies: @res, @EH

    Thanks! That is an interesting chart. Not sure if it is obvious to everyone, but Figure I.4.5 means it is in volume I (page 67). Their total learning time includes both in and out of school time. Here is some explanatory text.

    PISA 2015 highlighted significant differences in the hours of instruction per week among 15-year-old students. Students in Beijing-Shanghai-Jiangsu-Guangdong (China) (hereafter “B-S-J-G [China]”), Chile, Costa Rica, Korea, Chinese Taipei, Thailand and Tunisia spent at least 30 hours per week in regular lessons (all subjects combined), while students in Brazil, Bulgaria, Finland, Lithuania, the Slovak Republic and Uruguay spent less than 25 hours per week. Even larger differences were found in the amount of time that students spent learning outside of regular lessons, i.e. doing homework, taking additional instruction or attending private study. All subjects combined, students in B-S-J-G (China), the Dominican Republic, Qatar, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates reported that they studied at least 25 hours per week in addition to the required school schedule; in Finland, Germany, Iceland, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland, they studied less than 15 hours per week outside of school (OECD, 2016, pp. 209-217[4]).

    Based on information about learning time collected in PISA 2015,14 Figure I.4.5 shows the widely varied combinations of total How did countries perform in PISA 2018?4 learning time and performance that can be observed across PISA countries and economies. Countries in the upper-left quadrant can be considered more efficient, in that students reach above-average levels of proficiency but devote less time to learning than 15-year-old students on average across OECD countries. This group includes Finland, Germany, Japan and Sweden. By contrast, in several high-performing countries and economies, including B-S-J-Z (China), Korea and Singapore, students reported spending more than 50 hours per week attending regular lessons or in additional learning activities.

    In particular, notice the difference between Finland and the US in time spent out of school. It looks like that explains essentially all of the difference in total learning time between the two countries.

    Figure I.4.4 Reading performance and spending on education
    is also interesting (on page 66)

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
  50. @Jack D
    It would be interesting to break up Israel's scores the way the US scores were broken out - as Steve pointed out, American whites are about as good as any other whites, American blacks are as good as any other blacks, etc. In the end your position is going to be more determined by your racial stock than anything else. (Racial stock doesn't just mean black and white - Poles and Romanians are both white but they are different kinds of white).

    In Israel's case, you are going to have a small (and declining) fraction who are purebred secular Ashkenazis who are going to be at the top. Sephardic (and particularly Mizrahi) Jews are not known for their intellect. Arabs - we know what they are like.

    The Haredi are an interesting case because they are of mostly Ashkenazi stock and are a sort of reserve army of smart genes waiting to be liberated, just as the shtetl Jews of Europe sat in reserve for centuries. Although maybe there has been some sort of adverse selection and most of the smart Haredi became secular long ago?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    For PISA, it’s not to do with different races.

    PISA does not measure intelligence, but cultural ability, or question decoding.*

    This is why there is probably so much variation between schools in Israel, in particular – because is one of the few countries that operate parallel school systems.

    It’s possible, in Hebrew schools they have told the students about the test, and prepared for it. While in the Arab school they do not prepare for the exam.

    If it was a normal exam, that is no problem. But PISA is question decoding exam, and will confuse most children who do not have experience with the format.

    Hebrew schools were above OECD average for the exam (here is likely an indication of exam preparation) but the Arabic schools were near the bottom (most children must be confused by the exam).


    Blue is the Hebrew-speaking school system’s results for 2018.

    Green is the Arabic-speaking school system’s results for 2018.

    Yellow is the average of developed (OECD member) countries.

    Red is Israel’s composite score (combination of Hebrew and Arabic systems’ results).

    https://news.walla.co.il/item/3327263

    *I’m sure there will be real difference in distribution of academic abilities between races, but this shows at university with real exams.

    • Disagree: Thulean Friend
  51. @OP
    Plucky, unassuming Portugal doing better than expected, as usual. Too bad Spain isn't on the list. Maybe there won't be any "irregularities" in the 2019 results.

    I also do not trust the Chinese. They are known for cheating and "saving face."

    Replies: @BB753

    So, why did Spain cheat too? To save face?

  52. In Estonia the students have a 13 week summer vacation plus 3-4 one week breaks during the study year. Thus the study year in Estonia is 35-36 weeks long. For example in Finland it is 2-3 weeks longer, I believe. I am not sure whether the weekly average workload already accounts for that (I rather doubt that).
    Summertime is a real break, but possibly with some mandatory book reading.

  53. Native math scores for 2018. You probably have to click on the image to view the full details (and forget doing it on mobile unless you like to scroll around a lot).

    Notice that when a country has a single digit (such as 6 for Slovakia) the full score will be in the legend. It is not a typo.

    Here’s a barchart with a simpler overview:

    Here is the full data, native + non-native compared.

    1:

    2:

    3:

    • Replies: @Jackjack
    @Thulean Friend

    With New Zealand scores:

    https://i.imgur.com/3dYfEXC.png

  54. From the commenter dux-ie.

    95th percentile scores (or top 5% in other words) for both reading and science. Let’s start with reading.

    Rank | Read95 | Country
    1 | 714 | Singapore
    2 | 692 | BSJZ.China
    3 | 677 | Canada
    4 | 676 | Estonia
    4 | 676 | UnitedStates
    6 | 673 | HongKong.China
    7 | 672 | Finland
    7 | 672 | Sweden
    9 | 671 | NewZealand
    10 | 670 | Macao.China
    11 | 669 | Korea
    12 | 667 | Poland
    13 | 664 | UnitedKingdom
    14 | 663 | Germany
    14 | 663 | Ireland
    14 | 663 | Israel
    17 | 661 | Norway
    17 | 661 | ChineseTaipei
    19 | 657 | Japan
    22 | 651 | France
    26 | 647 | Switzerland
    28 | 645 | OECDavg
    33 | 631 | Hungary
    34 | 629 | Russia
    38 | 625 | VietNam
    45 | 612 | Ukraine
    46 | 610 | Turkey
    50 | 592 | Qatar
    60 | 562 | Mexico
    70 | 533 | Thailand
    76 | 491 | Philippines

    ….

    And now science.

    Rank | Sci95 | Country
    1 | 721 | BSJZ.China
    2 | 698 | Singapore
    3 | 674 | Estonia
    4 | 674 | Macao.China
    5 | 673 | Finland
    6 | 673 | Japan
    7 | 672 | Korea
    8 | 671 | Canada
    9 | 670 | NewZealand
    10 | 670 | ChineseTaipei
    11 | 669 | VietNam
    12 | 666 | Netherlands
    13 | 665 | Germany
    14 | 664 | Australia
    15 | 664 | UnitedKingdom
    16 | 660 | Poland
    17 | 660 | UnitedStates
    18 | 655 | Sweden
    22 | 650 | HongKong.China
    26 | 644 | France
    28 |640 | Israel
    30 | 639 | OECDavg
    42 | 619 | Ukraine
    43 | 616 | Russia
    47 | 608 | Turkey
    49 | 596 | Qatar
    59 | 567 | Thailand
    67 | 548 | Mexico
    78 | 500 | Philippines

  55. There is a treasure trove of information in excel spreadsheets available here. Just let the site load a while, it takes a while to fully render.

  56. Mexico doesn’t have much of an intellectual elite according to PISA. There are rich people in Mexico, but their kids don’t seem to study hard in school judging by the lack of high scoring Mexicans on the PISA test over the years.

    I’m personally acquainted with a pair of Mexican brothers who both have STEM Ph.D.s. That’s probably rare enough that if I specified in what particular fields they acquired them, you could likely figure out their names with a little intrepid web-searching.

  57. @eah
    May I ask: who is "we", and what is "not at all bad" about a situation where 1) the fastest growing demographic (Hispanics) does relatively poorly, and 2) the largest racial/ethnic group that does "not at all bad" (Whites) has been, as a demographic fraction, (fairly rapidly) declining for decades, particularly in the school-age/future worker population (Census: Minority youth overtake whites in 2020, 50% under 18) -- ?

    And Blacks, the worst performing group by far, are not only growing in absolute numbers, but also as a population fraction (albeit more slowly than Hispanics and Asians) -- while the "not at all bad" white population is actually declining, both in absolute numbers and as a population fraction (America’s white population shrinks for the first time as nation ages; Fewer Births Than Deaths Among Whites in Majority of U.S. States).

    Aren't you the guy who regularly says the US is 'running out of white kids' to help school performance? -- you could have just as easily said/tweeted that the data shows that "we" have the above-mentioned rather serious problem, right?

    It's rather strange -- ?

    https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1202024725213401089

    Replies: @eah

    “And Blacks, the worst performing group by far, are not only growing in absolute numbers, but also as a population fraction (albeit more slowly than Hispanics and Asians)”

  58. Intersting Twitter thread on how major cities (population >1 million) performed in PISA.

    One limitation would be that high-performing smaller cities with a lower population than a million like Tallinn (Estonia’s capital) would be excluded. But it nevertheless serves as a rough guide which cities are global human capital star performers.

    Prague, for example, did significantly better in relative ranking than did the Czech Republic as a whole, far more so than you’d expect just by the capital city effect. This may be because that Prague attracts plenty of highly skilled migrants with far fewer low-skilled migrants, for instance.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Thulean Friend

    Prague didn't get blown up in WWII like, say, Warsaw did, so it has great Old Europe architecture.

    Replies: @Anon 2

    , @Jack D
    @Thulean Friend

    In most countries the downtown of the biggest/capital city is the best place to live that attracts the smartest and most elite people. That's where all the best restaurants, theaters, museums, shops, etc. are and you can get to work in a jiffy - maybe even walk or a short tram car/metro ride.

    The working class is exiled to the suburbs which may not be politically part of the city where they live ( both inside and outside the East Bloc) in Stalinist concrete towers while the rich live in restored antique splendor downtown. Only in the US is this topsy turvy where we ceded some of the best downtown real estate to blacks and the white people were the ones who were forced into long commutes.

  59. @Thulean Friend
    Intersting Twitter thread on how major cities (population >1 million) performed in PISA.

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201964878946324480

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201964880493977600

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201966253084217347

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201980658832302093

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201982792265019395

    One limitation would be that high-performing smaller cities with a lower population than a million like Tallinn (Estonia's capital) would be excluded. But it nevertheless serves as a rough guide which cities are global human capital star performers.

    Prague, for example, did significantly better in relative ranking than did the Czech Republic as a whole, far more so than you'd expect just by the capital city effect. This may be because that Prague attracts plenty of highly skilled migrants with far fewer low-skilled migrants, for instance.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Jack D

    Prague didn’t get blown up in WWII like, say, Warsaw did, so it has great Old Europe architecture.

    • Replies: @Anon 2
    @Steve Sailer

    True, but Warsaw is much larger and more dynamic than Prague.
    In Warsaw they cannot build skyscrapers fast enough to accomodate
    all the EU and NATO offices, and all the financial firms that are moving
    to Poland. Poland is rapidly becoming the banking and finance center
    of Central Europe. The average IQ in Warsaw (population of 3 million
    in the metro area) is at least 115.


  60. The definition used on those graphs is misleading.
    2nd generation immigrants in Estonia (full or partial descendants of societ colonists) are not natives. It is also misleading with respect to finns in Finland, because fennoswedes perform differently (and used a different test language). A more strict definition (but still imperfect) might be a student with both parents having been born in the country and with the test language being the dominant state language of the country. Even better, if the self-designation of both parents were also dominant natives and both spoke the dominant native language.

  61. PISA normally defines “top-performing” as those who score at level 5 or 6 in at least one subject. However, there is more stringest way of looking at it. The lowest level is 1 and highest is 6.

    In Table I.B1.26, they show students who scored at level 5 or 6 in all three subjects. This is the elite of the elite.

    OECD:

    Percentage share of students | Country

    6,6 Estonia
    6,4 Korea
    5,9 Japan
    5,5 Canada
    5,3 Netherlands*
    5,3 Poland
    5,2 Finland
    5,1 Germany
    5,0 New Zealand
    4,8 Sweden
    4,6 United Kingdom
    4,5 United States*
    4,5 Australia
    4,3 Belgium
    4,1 Switzerland
    3,9 Norway
    3,8 Czech Republic
    3,5 Slovenia

    3,4 OECD average

    3,3 France
    3,3 Austria
    3,2 Ireland
    2,9 Luxembourg
    2,8 Denmark
    2,8 Israel
    2,7 Portugal*
    2,3 Iceland
    2,0 Hungary
    2,0 Lithuania
    1,8 Slovak Republic
    1,5 Latvia
    1,4 Italy
    1,2 Turkey
    0,6 Greece
    0,3 Chile
    0,1 Mexico
    0,1 Colombia

    —-

    Non-OECD

    Percentage share of students | Country

    17,7 B-S-J-Z (China)
    14,7 Singapore
    7,4 Macao (China)
    6,7 Taiwan
    5,4 Hong Kong (China)*
    2,2 Malta
    2,1 Vietnam**
    1,6 Russia
    1,4 Belarus
    1,3 United Arab Emirates
    1,3 Croatia
    1,2 Ukraine
    0,9 Qatar
    0,7 Brunei Darussalam
    0,6 Bulgaria
    0,6 Serbia
    0,4 Cyprus
    0,3 Romania
    0,3 Brazil
    0,2 Moldova
    0,2 Malaysia
    0,2 Uruguay
    0,1 Kazakhstan
    0,1 North Macedonia
    0,1 Lebanon
    0,1 Montenegro
    0,1 Thailand
    0,1 Albania
    0,1 Peru
    0,0 Argentina
    0,0 Jordan
    0,0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
    0,0 Georgia
    0,0 Costa Rica
    0,0 Baku (Azerbaijan)
    0,0 Panama
    0,0 Saudi Arabia
    0,0 Indonesia
    0,0 Philippines
    0,0 Dominican Republic
    0,0 Kosovo
    0,0 Morocco

    —-
    *Hong Kong (China), Netherlands, Portugal and United States: Data did not meet the PISA technical standards but were accepted as largely comparable (see Annexes A2 and A4).

    **The data for Vietnam have not yet been fully validated. Due to a lack of consistency in the response pattern of some performance data, the OECD cannot yet assure full international comparability of the results (see Annexes A4 and A6).
    —-

    Keep in mind that China’s coverage ratio at 81% is significantly lower than Germany(99%) or Finland(96%), as well as the fact that they selected only their most elite provinces/cities, representing less than 15% of their overall population.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Thulean Friend

    % of students scoring 5 or 6 in all 3 subjects:

    4.5% US
    1.2% Turkey
    0.1% Mexico

    Mexico doesn't have much of an intellectual elite compared to, say, Turkey, a country that might seem fairly comparable to Mexico. It has something to do with the lack of coverage of Mexico in the US media.

    Replies: @Cpluskx

  62. Mexico doesn’t have The Bomb because it doesn’t have make-belief enemies, like Americans do. Their only enemy, America, would make sure that the Mexicans never get The Bomb. You know, America, the same country that actually provided the Zionist Entity with The Bomb plans “by mistake”. It’s surprising how the French, or the Russians did not make that “mistake”. Must be that high IQ.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    Do you know what nation has no bodies in this cemetery?

    MEXICO

    Even Luxembourg contributed 10% of it's military forces to fight by the USA in Korea.


    During the Korean War, Luxembourg contributed a 44-man contingent, attached to the Belgian contingent, to the United Nations force. Luxembourg achieved the dual distinction of deploying the largest proportion of its military force (10%) amongst all states contributing to the United Nations forces, and suffering the highest proportion of casualty (more than one third) amongst all United Nations contingents.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_Luxembourg
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr8PPyC2Nvg
    , @Jack D
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    Actually the French gave Israel their nuclear capability (and their Mirage jets). Before Nixon, the US was not especially friendly with Israel. DeGaulle was, but being DeGaulle at some point he changed his mind.

  63. @Thulean Friend
    Buried deep in the PISA report is this fascinating chart.

    https://i.imgur.com/TWfD94r.jpg

    So Finland managed to get very respectable scores despite spending fairly light amount of time in school whereas the four Chinese provinces were literal slavemarkets by comparison. Pity UAE and Thailand who put in huge amounts of work with nothing to show for it.

    If you manage to achieve a lot with much less input than most other people it has a name: productivity.

    Replies: @res, @EH

    It looks like a modest but significant negative correlation between scores and education time, even if you just look at the ones above 450, or even just Chinese in the main cluster (Macao-Hong Kong – Taipei). It looks like Singapore and mainland big-city China could potentially gain 50 points by reducing study by 10-15 hours per week.

    • Replies: @res
    @EH

    If you want to do the numerical analysis, the data for that chart is available at
    https://doi.org/10.1787/888934028425

    I see a correlation of -0.32

  64. @Dacian Julien Soros
    Mexico doesn't have The Bomb because it doesn't have make-belief enemies, like Americans do. Their only enemy, America, would make sure that the Mexicans never get The Bomb. You know, America, the same country that actually provided the Zionist Entity with The Bomb plans "by mistake". It's surprising how the French, or the Russians did not make that "mistake". Must be that high IQ.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Jack D

    Do you know what nation has no bodies in this cemetery?

    MEXICO

    Even Luxembourg contributed 10% of it’s military forces to fight by the USA in Korea.

    During the Korean War, Luxembourg contributed a 44-man contingent, attached to the Belgian contingent, to the United Nations force. Luxembourg achieved the dual distinction of deploying the largest proportion of its military force (10%) amongst all states contributing to the United Nations forces, and suffering the highest proportion of casualty (more than one third) amongst all United Nations contingents.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_Luxembourg

  65. @EH
    @Thulean Friend

    It looks like a modest but significant negative correlation between scores and education time, even if you just look at the ones above 450, or even just Chinese in the main cluster (Macao-Hong Kong - Taipei). It looks like Singapore and mainland big-city China could potentially gain 50 points by reducing study by 10-15 hours per week.

    Replies: @res

    If you want to do the numerical analysis, the data for that chart is available at
    https://doi.org/10.1787/888934028425

    I see a correlation of -0.32

  66. @Thulean Friend
    Native math scores for 2018. You probably have to click on the image to view the full details (and forget doing it on mobile unless you like to scroll around a lot).

    https://i.imgur.com/4EmbD2d.png

    Notice that when a country has a single digit (such as 6 for Slovakia) the full score will be in the legend. It is not a typo.

    Here's a barchart with a simpler overview:

    https://i.imgur.com/sXB0q4N.png

    Here is the full data, native + non-native compared.

    1:

    https://i.imgur.com/cxk5ZIp.png

    2:

    https://i.imgur.com/gNIXnF2.png

    3:

    https://i.imgur.com/xkkVpab.png

    Replies: @Jackjack

    With New Zealand scores:

  67. @Thulean Friend
    Intersting Twitter thread on how major cities (population >1 million) performed in PISA.

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201964878946324480

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201964880493977600

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201966253084217347

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201980658832302093

    https://twitter.com/JakubowskiEvid/status/1201982792265019395

    One limitation would be that high-performing smaller cities with a lower population than a million like Tallinn (Estonia's capital) would be excluded. But it nevertheless serves as a rough guide which cities are global human capital star performers.

    Prague, for example, did significantly better in relative ranking than did the Czech Republic as a whole, far more so than you'd expect just by the capital city effect. This may be because that Prague attracts plenty of highly skilled migrants with far fewer low-skilled migrants, for instance.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Jack D

    In most countries the downtown of the biggest/capital city is the best place to live that attracts the smartest and most elite people. That’s where all the best restaurants, theaters, museums, shops, etc. are and you can get to work in a jiffy – maybe even walk or a short tram car/metro ride.

    The working class is exiled to the suburbs which may not be politically part of the city where they live ( both inside and outside the East Bloc) in Stalinist concrete towers while the rich live in restored antique splendor downtown. Only in the US is this topsy turvy where we ceded some of the best downtown real estate to blacks and the white people were the ones who were forced into long commutes.

  68. @Dacian Julien Soros
    Mexico doesn't have The Bomb because it doesn't have make-belief enemies, like Americans do. Their only enemy, America, would make sure that the Mexicans never get The Bomb. You know, America, the same country that actually provided the Zionist Entity with The Bomb plans "by mistake". It's surprising how the French, or the Russians did not make that "mistake". Must be that high IQ.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin, @Jack D

    Actually the French gave Israel their nuclear capability (and their Mirage jets). Before Nixon, the US was not especially friendly with Israel. DeGaulle was, but being DeGaulle at some point he changed his mind.

  69. That scatter of score vs standard deviation would have been even more interesting if it had been score vs coefficient of variation.

  70. @Thulean Friend
    PISA normally defines "top-performing" as those who score at level 5 or 6 in at least one subject. However, there is more stringest way of looking at it. The lowest level is 1 and highest is 6.

    In Table I.B1.26, they show students who scored at level 5 or 6 in all three subjects. This is the elite of the elite.

    OECD:

    Percentage share of students | Country

    6,6 Estonia
    6,4 Korea
    5,9 Japan
    5,5 Canada
    5,3 Netherlands*
    5,3 Poland
    5,2 Finland
    5,1 Germany
    5,0 New Zealand
    4,8 Sweden
    4,6 United Kingdom
    4,5 United States*
    4,5 Australia
    4,3 Belgium
    4,1 Switzerland
    3,9 Norway
    3,8 Czech Republic
    3,5 Slovenia

    3,4 OECD average

    3,3 France
    3,3 Austria
    3,2 Ireland
    2,9 Luxembourg
    2,8 Denmark
    2,8 Israel
    2,7 Portugal*
    2,3 Iceland
    2,0 Hungary
    2,0 Lithuania
    1,8 Slovak Republic
    1,5 Latvia
    1,4 Italy
    1,2 Turkey
    0,6 Greece
    0,3 Chile
    0,1 Mexico
    0,1 Colombia


    ----


    Non-OECD

    Percentage share of students | Country

    17,7 B-S-J-Z (China)
    14,7 Singapore
    7,4 Macao (China)
    6,7 Taiwan
    5,4 Hong Kong (China)*
    2,2 Malta
    2,1 Vietnam**
    1,6 Russia
    1,4 Belarus
    1,3 United Arab Emirates
    1,3 Croatia
    1,2 Ukraine
    0,9 Qatar
    0,7 Brunei Darussalam
    0,6 Bulgaria
    0,6 Serbia
    0,4 Cyprus
    0,3 Romania
    0,3 Brazil
    0,2 Moldova
    0,2 Malaysia
    0,2 Uruguay
    0,1 Kazakhstan
    0,1 North Macedonia
    0,1 Lebanon
    0,1 Montenegro
    0,1 Thailand
    0,1 Albania
    0,1 Peru
    0,0 Argentina
    0,0 Jordan
    0,0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
    0,0 Georgia
    0,0 Costa Rica
    0,0 Baku (Azerbaijan)
    0,0 Panama
    0,0 Saudi Arabia
    0,0 Indonesia
    0,0 Philippines
    0,0 Dominican Republic
    0,0 Kosovo
    0,0 Morocco


    ----
    *Hong Kong (China), Netherlands, Portugal and United States: Data did not meet the PISA technical standards but were accepted as largely comparable (see Annexes A2 and A4).

    **The data for Vietnam have not yet been fully validated. Due to a lack of consistency in the response pattern of some performance data, the OECD cannot yet assure full international comparability of the results (see Annexes A4 and A6).
    ----

    Keep in mind that China's coverage ratio at 81% is significantly lower than Germany(99%) or Finland(96%), as well as the fact that they selected only their most elite provinces/cities, representing less than 15% of their overall population.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    % of students scoring 5 or 6 in all 3 subjects:

    4.5% US
    1.2% Turkey
    0.1% Mexico

    Mexico doesn’t have much of an intellectual elite compared to, say, Turkey, a country that might seem fairly comparable to Mexico. It has something to do with the lack of coverage of Mexico in the US media.

    • Replies: @Cpluskx
    @Steve Sailer

    In Pisa 2015, Turks living in Netherlands and Switzerland scored higher in science than the Icelandic students even though they come from the lowest skilled portion of Turkey, with 25-20% cousin marriage rate and language problems. There might be some really good potential in Turkey, especially if the cousin marriage halted. Ottoman Empire didn't build itself :D

  71. @Steve Sailer
    @Thulean Friend

    Prague didn't get blown up in WWII like, say, Warsaw did, so it has great Old Europe architecture.

    Replies: @Anon 2

    True, but Warsaw is much larger and more dynamic than Prague.
    In Warsaw they cannot build skyscrapers fast enough to accomodate
    all the EU and NATO offices, and all the financial firms that are moving
    to Poland. Poland is rapidly becoming the banking and finance center
    of Central Europe. The average IQ in Warsaw (population of 3 million
    in the metro area) is at least 115.

  72. I’ve charted the data on the high-performing students (scoring at the highest levels in all three subjects).

    Starting with OECD

    And then non-OECD

    I’d institute a rule that at least ≥75% of a country’s population would be sampled and a coverage ratio of ≥85% of that population. The problem is that such a rule would make much of the non-OECD graph vanish without a trace.

  73. This striking finding was also pointed out in Brazil by ’18 presidential candidate João Amoêdo on twitter (https://twitter.com/joaoamoedonovo/status/1202206752743264258)

    PISA by (all, not just elite) private schools puts Brazil in #11 for Literature above Sweden, #23 for Science tied with Switzerland, #38 for Mathematics, above Israel.

    His tweet was likely sourced from https://educacao.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,escolas-privadas-de-elite-do-brasil-superam-finlandia-no-pisa-rede-publica-vai-pior-do-que-peru,70003112767
    https://www.jornaldotocantins.com.br/editorias/vida-urbana/escola-de-elite-do-brasil-supera-finl%C3%A2ndia-no-pisa-rede-p%C3%BAblica-vai-pior-que-peru-1.1946253


    Despite a lot of talk about “socio-economic conditions” to make sense out of this data, private and public schools in Brazil are a proxy for ethnic distributions.
    Oddly, the Left in Brazil is always talking about how there’s a dreadful lack of diversity among private schools that are mostly White (and Asian) in a country that mostly isn’t. Then this result comes in, and the ethnic distributions don’t matter anymore, it must be socio-economic factors.

  74. @Steve Sailer
    @Thulean Friend

    % of students scoring 5 or 6 in all 3 subjects:

    4.5% US
    1.2% Turkey
    0.1% Mexico

    Mexico doesn't have much of an intellectual elite compared to, say, Turkey, a country that might seem fairly comparable to Mexico. It has something to do with the lack of coverage of Mexico in the US media.

    Replies: @Cpluskx

    In Pisa 2015, Turks living in Netherlands and Switzerland scored higher in science than the Icelandic students even though they come from the lowest skilled portion of Turkey, with 25-20% cousin marriage rate and language problems. There might be some really good potential in Turkey, especially if the cousin marriage halted. Ottoman Empire didn’t build itself 😀

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS