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In Quillette, assistant editor Jonathan Kay publishes an important analysis based on his readings about contact tracing of 54 documented superspreader events early in the epidemic:

COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons
written by Jonathan Kay

Jonathan Kay is Canadian Editor of Quillette. He tweets at @jonkay.

… I was struck by how few of the SSEs originated in conditions stereotypically associated with the underclass (though a March outbreak at a Qatari migrant workers camp in the industrial area north of Doha offers one such example). Many of the early SSEs, in fact, centered on weddings, birthday parties, and other events that were described in local media as glamorous or populated by “socialites.” …

There is some selection bias here in that more upper class people seem more likely to talk to public health authorities than are illegal immigrants or guys who have a warrant out. But I think this is plausible, overall.

But absent more data, the more obvious explanation is that these early SSEs are linked to the intercontinental travel practices of the guests. … Moreover, COVID-19 outbreaks in poor communities are simply less likely to be reported, because the victims have less access to testing, high-end medical care, or media contacts.

In fact, the truly remarkable trend that jumped off my spreadsheet has nothing to do with the sort of people involved in these SSEs, but rather the extraordinarily narrow range of underlying activities. And I believe it is on this point that a close study of SSEs, even one based on such a biased and incomplete data set as the one I’ve assembled in my lay capacity, can help us:

  • Of the 54 SSEs on my list for which the underlying activities were identified, no fewer than nine were linked to religious services or missionary work. …
  • Nineteen of the SSEs—about one-third—involved parties or liquor-fueled mass attendance festivals of one kind or another, including (as with the examples cited above) celebrations of weddings, engagements and birthdays.
  • Five of the SSEs involved funerals.
  • Six of the SSEs involved face-to-face business networking. This includes large-scale events such as Biogen’s notorious Boston leadership meeting in February, as well as one-on-one business meetings—from the unidentified “traveling salesperson” who spread COVID-19 in Maine to Hisham Hamdan, a powerful sovereign-wealth fund official who spread the disease in Malaysia.

All told, 38 of the 54 SSEs for which activities were known involved one or more of these four activities—about 70 percent….

But even that 70 percent figure underestimates the prevalence of these activities in COVID-19 SSEs, because my database also includes five SSEs involving two warships and three cruise ships—the USS Roosevelt, Charles de Gaulle, Diamond Princess, Grand Princess and Ruby Princess—at least three of which (and probably all five) featured onboard parties.

These parties, funerals, religious meet-ups and business networking sessions all seem to have involved the same type of behaviour: extended, close-range, face-to-face conversation—typically in crowded, socially animated spaces. This includes the many people infected by a bartender while being served at a raucous après ski venue in Austria, and party guests in Brazil greeting “each other with two kisses on the cheek [a local custom], hugs and handshakes.” The funerals in question are generally described as highly intimate and congested scenes of grieving among close friends and relatives. In the case of the SSE funeral in Albany, Georgia that devastated the local population, “people wiped tears away, and embraced, and blew their noses, and belted out hymns. They laughed, remembering. It was a big gathering, with upward of 200 mourners overflowing the memorial chapel, so people had to stand outside.”

With few exceptions, almost all of the SSEs took place indoors, where people tend to pack closer together in social situations, and where ventilation is poorer. (It is notable, for instance, that the notorious outbreak at an Austrian ski resort is connected to a bartender and not, say, a lift operator.) But generalizations in this area are complicated by the fact that some of the religious festivals described herein were mixed indoor/outdoor affairs. Moreover, the February 19 SSE at San Siro stadium in Milan is also ambiguous, since that stadium has a roof over the seating area, but not over the field.

I would imagine that supporters of the Bergamo soccer club tended to travel to the big game in Milan in buses and trains with other supporters, talking and perhaps singing excitedly at least one way. (If Bergamo won the game, then on the ride home as well.)

The media accounts of these SSEs are full of descriptions in this vein. At a February 15 festival in Gangelt, a town in Germany’s tiny Heinsberg district, “beer and wine flowed aplenty as approximately 350 adults in fancy dress locked arms on long wooden benches and swayed to the rhythm of music provided by a live band. During an interval in the programme, guests got up to mingle with friends and relatives at other tables, greeting each other as Rhineland tradition commands, with a bützchen, or peck on the cheek.” Since that time, more than 40 Germans from the Heinsberg district have died. It’s been called “Germany’s Wuhan.”

In the case of religious SSEs, Sikhs, Christians, Jews and Muslims are all represented in the database. …

Of the 54 SSEs for which underlying activities could be identified, only 11 did not involve either religious activity, a party, a funeral, a cruise or extended face-to-face professional networking. But even in this minority of cases, one can observe almost identical interpersonal dynamics. Three of the SSEs—in Japan, Skagit County, WA, and Singapore—involved concert-goers and singing groups belting out tunes together over a period of hours. (The Skagit example [a Presbyterian choir practice) is particularly interesting, because the organizers were aware of the COVID-19 risk beforehand, and took the precaution of spacing out the participants by several feet. If they had been merely chatting, instead of singing, no one might have gotten sick.)

Another SSE involved a group of Canadian doctors engaged in a day of recreational curling. This is a sport that involves hyperventilating participants frenetically sweeping the ice with brooms while their faces are positioned inches apart, sometimes changing partners—an ideal climate for Flüggian infection. Indeed, this partner-swapping aspect of the activity seems to be a common feature of many suspected SSEs, such as square-dancing parties.

Four of the SSEs were outbreaks at meat-processing plants, in which “gut snatchers” and other densely packed workers must communicate with one another amidst the ear-piercing shriek of industrial machinery. I lack the expertise to determine how the refrigerated nature of some meat-processing facilities may affect the dynamics of droplet transmission—though I would also note that at least four of the SSEs on my list unfolded at European ski resorts. But high levels of noise do seem to be a common feature of SSEs, as such environments force conversationalists to speak at extremely close range. (Related factors may be at play in old-age homes. These tend to be quiet places. But the reduced speaking volume and hearing functions of some elderly residents lend themselves to conversations held at much closer range than is socially typical in the general population.)

Finally, three of the SSEs involved mass sports spectacles, during which fans regularly rain saliva in all directions as they communally celebrate or commiserate in response to each turn of fortune. (Advance to the 8:30 mark of this video, showing euphoric hometown fan reaction during the infamous February 19th football match between Atlanata and Valencia, and you will see exactly what I mean.) As we now know, the danger starts even before the action begins: One of the most dangerous things you can do at a sports event in the COVID-19 era is sing the national anthem.

* * *

When do COVID-19 SSEs happen? Based on the list I’ve assembled, the short answer is: Wherever and whenever people are up in each other’s faces, laughing, shouting, cheering, sobbing, singing, greeting, and praying.

“Humanist Conan, what is best in life?”

“Wherever and whenever people are up in each other’s faces, laughing, shouting, cheering, sobbing, singing, greeting, and praying.”

I imagine kissing should also be included in this list.

This is depressing. The accumulating evidence appears to be that most of the grimmer economic activities, outside of perhaps taking the NYC subway to work, aren’t all that dangerous, but the social activities that make getting and spending much more worth living are.

Basically, activities that a Boston Puritan minister of 1650 would have approved of, such as many forms of making money and listening attentively to his sermons, seem less dangerous, while the more dangerous activities are what we tend to think of as either fun or cathartic.

… It’s worth scanning all the myriad forms of common human activity that aren’t represented among these listed SSEs: watching movies in a theater, being on a train or bus, attending theater, opera, or symphony (these latter activities may seem like rarified examples, but they are important once you take stock of all those wealthy infectees who got sick in March, and consider that New York City is a major COVID-19 hot spot). These are activities where people often find themselves surrounded by strangers in densely packed rooms—as with all those above-described SSEs—but, crucially, where attendees also are expected to sit still and talk in hushed tones.

People are all tending to face in the same direction in these venues. And even during intermission, they mostly speak to the people they came with, not to random non-householders.

The world’s untold thousands of white-collar cubicle farms don’t seem to be generating abundant COVID-19 SSEs—despite the uneven quality of ventilation one finds in global workplaces. This category includes call centers (many of which are still operating), places where millions of people around the world literally talk for a living. (Addendum: there are at least two examples of call-centre-based clusters, both of which were indicated to me by readers after the original version of this article appeared—one in South Korea, which overlaps with the massive Shincheonji Church of Jesus cluster; and the other in Jamaica.)

In New Zealand, one SSE centered on students at a girls’ school. Given the exuberant and socially intimate way in which children laugh, argue and gossip, I am surprised there are not more schools on my list. Moreover, I had trouble finding any SSEs that originated in university classrooms, which one would expect to be massive engines of infection if COVID-19 could be transmitted easily through airborne small-droplet diffusion.

In the United States, the two university-based examples that have received the most media attention are Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. and the University of Texas. But in neither case was there any apparent connection to classroom activity. At Liberty, where several employees got sick, the one student known to be infected isn’t even currently enrolled in classes. And the UT outbreak, which has caused more than 40 students to be infected, actually took place on a Spring Break trip to Mexico. It’s possible, I suppose, that these students spent the week holed up in a conference room with a stack of books. But my instincts indicate otherwise.

It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs, notwithstanding the sardine-like manner in which airlines transport us and the ample opportunity that the industry’s bureaucracy offers for contact tracing. Yes, New Zealand has one cluster that’s based around an infected but asymptomatic flight attendant. But the many known infections he caused took place at a wedding reception, not in an airplane. …

I’ve already cataloged the limitations of my approach at some length. And I will emphasize again that I am not an epidemiologist, virologist, or infectious-diseases expert (though I like to think I’ve made myself a somewhat educated reader of the most recently published scientific literature in these fields). But even a layperson can see that there is a fairly clear pattern in the most notorious, destructive, and widely reported cases of mass COVID-19 infection—virtually all of which feature forms of human behaviour that permit the direct ballistic delivery of a large-droplet Flüggian payload from face A to face B. If fomites were a major pathway for COVID-19 infection outside of hospitals, old-age residences, and homes, one would expect restaurant cooks, mass-transit ticket handlers, and FedEx delivery workers to be at the center of major clusters. They’re not. If small-droplet airborne concentrations in unventilated spaces were a common vector for COVID-19 transmission (as with measles, for instance), one would expect whole office buildings to become mass-infection hot spots. That doesn’t seem to have happened. …

Fighting this disease will always be hard. But it will be harder still if we fail to develop a proper understanding of the precise way it attacks us.

An important unresolved question is if there is a selection bias in these list of superspreader events. For example, imagine that NYC subways were an important avenue of infection. But imagine how much harder a problem the subway poses problem they pose for contract tracers than, say, a wedding reception with an official invite list.

Another issue is whether superspreader events early in the epidemic, before contact-tracing was overwhelmed, are significantly different than how the virus is spread today. Early on, people who got infected tended to be popular people who are invited to lots of social events. But popular people may have more resources to self-isolate. In NYC lately, workers who get infected tend to be lower paid ones who have to show up at their place of work and deal with the public. So maybe the nature of the recent spread is fundamentally different from these well-documented early super-spreader events?

 
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  1. “Introvert Thoth-Amon, what is worst in life?”

    “Wherever and whenever people are up in each other’s faces, laughing, shouting, cheering, sobbing, singing, greeting, and praying.”

    “What is best in life?”

    “A cold flask of the wines of Stygia, a text of ancient lore, and a warm bed. These things do not spread the crown-poison, unlike the pleasures of the masses of men.”

    • Replies: @Father O'Hara
    To lie with harlots!
    , @Richard B
    Meanwhile, I still don't know anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone who has this thing.

    Don't know anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone who's died from it either.

    Not one.

  2. Good news Steve! The Fat Fuck that calls himself the governor of Illinois has just extended the stay at home order here in Illinois, and face masks will be required in public!

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/

    Isn’t that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you’ve been asking for.

    You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok

    face masks will be required in public!
     
    There are people who consider it a huge civil rights violation that they aren't allowed to be nude in public. The rest of us consider it a non-issue. Wear the mask.

    Funny thing is that many of the same people saying things like this were talking six months ago about "soyboys" and how weak modern men are. How prior generations of men fought in long and brutal wars. Now you ask them to stay inside for two months and it's the end of the world. What a bunch of wusses.
    , @Lars Porsena
    He has a name you know. It's Jelly Belly. Governor Jelly Belly to you.

    and face masks will be required in public!
     
    Uh oh. If I am not around posting in the next few days someone come bail me out. We'll see how this goes.

    I just said yesterday I was finally seeing store clerks not wearing them for the first time yesterday.
    , @moshe
    As you know, I am an Anti-Panicker but I'm not particularly "angry" about this whole quarantine business as you appear to be.

    I'm not disagreeing with anything you wrote but I am very curious about how angry you seem to be.

    You wrote:

    "You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself."

    I'm certain that I could provide many examples of this should anyone ask me to but I would be the wrong person for them to ask because my response would come from reasoned guessing and would only include personal anecdotes about how Quarantinism causes annoyances etc.

    So I'm curious about your anger and about the anger of the people you are referring to - so long as you know them personally.

    Could you please elaborate on why you are so mad?

    Communication on blogs can often be misread so let me make clear that I am simply curious to learn about the reason for your strong sentiments on this subject because while I have been the most consistent denier of "the plague", I don't have the anger that you have nor have I seen much of it in people I know personally. They may be annoyed, frazzled or upset but none of them seem to view Panickers as The Enemy, as you appear to.

    On this blog as well, such strong emotional and angry sentiments by other doubters are rare, hence my curiosity.

    Thanks.
    , @Lars Porsena
    On second reading you are kind of mean to Steve though you should be more understanding.

    Steve advocates his own point of view, he doesn't run around screaming to shoot the people who don't comply like a lot of panicked nutters do. I disagree with him but he's been pretty reasonable about this and his info has been fair (I think half of his own news facts discredit any panic).
    , @Joe Stalin
    https://twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1253379140549558274
    , @MBlanc46
    Thanks, Mike. I hadn’t seen that.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Isn’t that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you’ve been asking for."

    I feel you, brother. The chemotard and all around boomerfag Steve Sailer is jizzing his pants whilst shitting his bed. Highest point of his irrelevant life.

    #CoronaHoax
  3. As an aside, nice to see the Quillette boys coming up with something more useful than the culture-war stuff. Reading about ‘cancel culture’ for the 50th time got boring, even though I agree 110% with their point of view!

  4. eD says:

    I remember a long time ago when it was just expected that you would get sick each winter and have to spend each time in bed.

    I’m wondering to what extent this is taking several cultural trends in the past and taking them to the level of hysteria:

    1. More aversion to face to face/ in-person mixing and contact. This was already noticeable before 2020.

    2. Less sick leave or tolerance of being absent at work, meaning its harder to just take to your bed for a week when you come down with something.

    3. Boomers not retiring from work or wanting to slow down their lifestyles. In the past, people who reached the age where they couldn’t just shake off seasonal illnesses, which might kill them, were, well, retired. They didn’t get out much anyway. Once boomers reach the age where they have to slow down, everyone has to slow down.

    4. Slipping grip on reality and the need for trade-offs. Yeah, if you mix with a lot of people, who might pick up something nasty.

    I’m not sure where the nursing homes fit into this, however.

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    Yeah, I listen to people talk about Covid and I wonder 'Have you ever had the flu?'

    They act like it's a shock to be ill.

    I'm always sick, at least twice a year. Ironically, the year of Covid 2019-2020, I've gone almost a year with only a minor 36 hour exactly (it was amazing! at exactly 2 pm after 36 hours in bed I was...Fine? Got up and ate dinner...no cough..no runny nose...this was Late November) flu bug.

    Maybe there's something weird going on...Maybe all the 'Healthy, Never-Get Ill Tom Hanks' people are Finally Getting Ill for the First time In Their Lives

    While all the people like me who get the flu 4 times a year are strangely...Not getting anything.

    REVENGE!!!

    Sorry...

    , @moshe
    I agree with your comment though (as an anti-Panicker from the very start) I see this aversion to sickness, slowing down and death to be a very very very good thing.

    I only worry that now that their panic has been publicly demonstrated to be so silly and their tactics so ridiculous that they will move a bit in the direction of the sort of Resignation that you are recollecting.

    I hope they don't.
    , @Thatgirl
    I've noticed this also in the almost hysterical descriptions provided by the media of what sounds, to me, like fairly normal bouts with a flu-like illness. For instance, Chris Cuomo acted like he was on death's door even while he was still able to do a nightly news broadcast.

    I have had two bouts in the past ten years with bad viruses, one was probably the flu and one was Coxsackievirus. Both left me prostate in bed for a number of days and then recovering for at least a couple of weeks. With Coxsackievirus, my throat was in so much pain I could barely drink water.

    I think that many people, because of flu vaccines, have simply not been really sick in a long time, thus they simply are overwhelmed when they get a bad illness.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    eD, many people won't take days off sick because they can "bank" their sick days and redeem them for cash when they retire. Very selfish of let's say a teacher to work in a classroom when they should be home recovering.
    , @Anonymous

    Once boomers reach the age where they have to slow down, everyone has to slow down.
     
    That's it. Exactly right.

    I remember when my dad hit middle age he suddenly became a fitness/health fanatic. I wouldn't have cared, except that he insisted the entire family also join him in his new lifestyle. Bullshit.

    The principle here is the same.
  5. …the highest joy is in victory: to conquer one’s enemies; to pursue them; to deprive them of their possessions; to make their beloved weep; to ride on their horses; and to embrace their wives and daughters.

  6. A couple of (possibly minor) observations I haven’t seen discussed much.

    1) With the recent hysteria it’s not a stretch to propose that many people are highly anxious, particularly those predisposed to anxiety disorders. Symptoms of which share a similarity to Covid symptoms: breathlessness, chest pain, etc.

    2) The longer people isolate the greater chance the virus has time to mutate into something that’ll REALLY get its hooks in ya in order to survive, instead of allowing it to be neutralized by early infection.

    • Replies: @moshe
    There's no button for "Mostly Agree" so it will have to do as a comment.
  7. GermanReader2 [AKA "GermanReader2_new"] says:

    I just wanted to let you know, that Oktoberfest 2020 has been cancelled a few days ago. Reading this article this seems like a good decision.

  8. Keeping physically active does not necessarily involve socializing in person. I am a septuagenarian.

    Four years ago after visting a museum filled with 35 bus loads of elementary school kids,

    I got a 24-day bout of non-stop hacking cough which ended up in pneumonia.

    I still get close to 10,000 steps a day doing wildlife photography and cycling along

    the beach south of LA. My wife assumed the same lifestyle until she had stroke

    and ended up in a nursing home. Communicate with my children in New York

    via text and phone. Have been largely self-isolated for four years.

  9. This is depressing. The accumulating evidence appears to be that most of the grimmer economic activities, outside of perhaps taking the NYC subway to work, aren’t all that dangerous, but the social activities that make getting and spending much more worth living are.

    Basically, activities that a Boston Puritan minister of 1650 would have approved of, such as many forms of making money and listening attentively to his sermons, seem less dangerous, while the more dangerous activities are what we tend to think of as either fun or cathartic.

    I don’t know. I can live a long and happy life without any of that. I have zero use for listening to some minister drone on, but along with useful productive work

    Outdoor recreation–camping, hiking, kayaking, biking,
    Golf, tennis, swimming,
    Skiing–without the crowded public clubbing.
    The beach.
    Road trips–hitting the national parks.
    Having friends/family over for dinner, drinks–more quiet, more comfortable, don’t have to shout.
    Watching movies at home.
    Reading books … or iSteve.
    Enjoying family conversation, games, meals.
    Sex.

    I think i’m going to be just fine in the new order.

    • Replies: @Dissident
    >Sex.

    Hmm...

    Well, if, as is no doubt the case, there are many who find the study and discussion of that particular linguistic construct interesting, I suppose it only makes sense that at least some of them would also find it downright enjoyable.

    Oh, wait...It's gender that prevailing woke-speak incorrectly uses in place of sex. Not vice-versa. Sorry.

    So you properly meant sex, then? That you enjoy being unequivocally and unapologetically male?

    What's that, you say? That's not quite what you meant, either?

    So then, you must have meant...

    Really? There are people who actually enjoy that? You don't say.

  10. It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs, notwithstanding the sardine-like manner in which airlines transport us and the ample opportunity that the industry’s bureaucracy offers for contact tracing.

    See, I told you so, Steve! (You called the after-ski parties very well, I think responding to me on that one first.) For cryin’ out loud, people, there ARE air changes on the airliners. What it really is though, is that people do sit together, but they hardly talk as they did 25 or even 10 years back. There’s entertainment often on the seat back, and on almost all passengers’ tablets and phones.

    The guy did call the ability to trace passengers very well, which a consequence of the TSA – people are supposed to sit where the gate agent finalized their seat when the flight is “closed-out” (which also matters for weight/balance on the smaller birds.) On some of the longer flights especially, or just when families want to consolidate, maybe 5% of them move to different seats. One time, on a 12-hour flight going to the Orient, whenever I had to pee, the Chinese guy on the aisle would get up and take my seat, then I’d sit on the aisle till he had to get up to pee, for probably 3 cycles.

    Perhaps the author just meant tracing people on same flights, and I’m going overboard thinking about this. Definitely, this information is very accurate. Having stowaways is almost a thing of the past.

    • Replies: @DevOps Dad
    It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs ...

    This is because jetliner cabins filter air through 'true HEPA' filters that remove dust, allergens and microbes ('microbes' includes viruses and bacteria) from the air recirculated into the cabin and cockpit.

    True HEPA filters (>99.999% microbial removal efficiency)

    The anticipation of winter 2020-21 will likely produce fear of enclosed spaces for those living in the northern latitudes.

    As a result, this autumn we may be seeing 'true HEPA' air filters/humidifier combination units for office buildings and upscale homes.

    https://shop.pall.com/us/en/aerospace/commercial-fixed-wing/electronics-cooling-filtration
  11. On an airplane, people mostly face in the same direction. You’re never facing someone except maybe momentarily during boarding or on those weird old 737s that had a pair of facing rows in the back.

    On the NY subway, you can’t help but face people. Even if you can find a seat, the seats face in toward the aisle, so that you’re often face-to-face with a croupy six-year-old.

  12. This about proves that we all spit on each other when we talk.

  13. what is SSE?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Super-Spreader Event
  14. @anon
    what is SSE?

    Super-Spreader Event

  15. For example, imagine that NYC subways were an important avenue of infection. But imagine how much harder a problem the subway poses problem they pose for contract tracers than, say, a wedding reception with an official invite list.

    Well, they use magnetic-strip cards now instead of the old anonymous tokens. If they’re swiped at the exits as well as the entrance, that would supply a lot of information. Even if not, return trips would do the same.

    You wouldn’t know the individual passengers by name, but you’d have their transit patterns and place of purchase.

    …talking and perhaps singing excitedly at least one way. (If Bergamo won, then both ways.)

    I’d rather deal with their singing after a win than their vomit after a loss. I shared a Belgian ferry with defeated Arsenal supporters once, and a Glasgow hostel with drawn Celtic ones, over from Ireland.

    Still, thanks for the reminder. I’d forgotten all about Atalanta BC which, were their logo full-figure, would be even better than AS Roma’s. Oh, wait… it once was:

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
    Atalanta is one of my second favourite clubs in Serie A. They always punch above their weight due to their strong youth policy, judicious acquisitions and uncharacteristically loyal players.

    Also, they have a Greek name.

  16. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Good news Steve! The Fat Fuck that calls himself the governor of Illinois has just extended the stay at home order here in Illinois, and face masks will be required in public!

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/

    Isn't that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you've been asking for.

    You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.

    face masks will be required in public!

    There are people who consider it a huge civil rights violation that they aren’t allowed to be nude in public. The rest of us consider it a non-issue. Wear the mask.

    Funny thing is that many of the same people saying things like this were talking six months ago about “soyboys” and how weak modern men are. How prior generations of men fought in long and brutal wars. Now you ask them to stay inside for two months and it’s the end of the world. What a bunch of wusses.

    • Disagree: moshe
    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
    Stay in your home citizen.

    Embrace sodomy.

    Buy boner pills.

    Consume Corn.

    Wear your seatbelt.

    Embrace sodomy.

    Apologize for your racism.

    Recycle.

    Refinance your home.

    Embrace sodomy.
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    You don't seem self-aware enough to realize how very obtuse you're being, so I'm not going to try to correct you. Your comment can stand as a momument to its own obliviousness.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Now you ask them to stay inside...
     
    Tell, not ask. The reaction differs.
    , @moshe
    Wow. Your way of thinking is fascinating.

    First of all, you, and all of the other Panickers and Go-Alongers should have the decency and intellectual honesty to publicly admit that you were wrong and to publicly state your admiration for clearer thinkers who got it right.

    Second of all, how much brain pain does one have to suffer to come to the conclusion that the "I aint wearin no stinkin mask" fellas (such as myself and Donald Trump) are the "soyboys", while the people staying home with a lock on the door and wearing masks (and demanding that everyone else wear them too) are the brave sort of people akin to those who fought in WW2. I mean, does your brain always work that way? It's wild!

    P.S. I apologize for the personal attack and hope that you take it in the jocular kibbitzing manner in which it is intended. Unfortunately, such kibbitzing isn't really possible via text without all of the body language that kibbitzing requires but I suppose you and all of the other brave folk who have the courage to refrain from face to face conversations with strangers will be okay with never kibbitzing again and remaining Puritan Solemn in all of your interactions via text.


    P.P.S. Your conclusions about who the soyboys were reminded me of Rayban's ad campaign for dark sunglasses called "Never Hide" where they tried to make imply that sunglass-wearers who can't look people in the eye are somehow the proud and out people ready to take on any personal encounter. Sunglass-wearers are either hypochondriacs, Puritans or pussies. And so are bubble boys who want everyone walking around like the brave men who took away ET. :)
    , @XYZ (no Mr.)
    Actual active and healthy men require pretty strong evidence to stay inside. I'm not saying you're a woman, but only a woman would compare weak acquiesce to hiding inside to that of combat experience. And I've been in a war, though thankfully it wasn't a brutal war for me.

    Hint: only women and preachers and worthless SJWs shame. Men tend to convince. And if I'm out by myself wandering around the neighborhood I don't wear a mask. If wearing a mask is a necessary tradeoff for resuming full employment indoors, sounds very reasonable to me. Telling me I need to wear one arbitrarily wandering around the neighborhood is insipid nonsense.
    , @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Now you ask them to stay inside for two months
     
    Relatively easy to do in a nice single-family house with a pretty yard (or acres of land). Imagine being stuck in a small unit in a high-density building like the ones you want plonked all over the place. (#152, etc.) No thanks.

    Single-family-house zoning for the win!
  17. I kind of agree with AnotherDad and Gary, as I could also do things only by myself and with family for months with not a problem. I never did like being in a big crowd, as, say near the stage in front of a punk band when those idiots would do that stage diving. I was always the one leaving lots of room “clear the area, give ’em a good landing spot!” Sure, that was the extreme.

    Let’s hope what’s been happening with this Police State LOCKDOWN shit is a fluke here. Some of you may get not quite what you’re wishing for, as it was the playgrounds, outdoor tracks, beaches, and boat ramps closed too. Go long fence cutters, chain saws and Bobcats.

  18. I don’t agree with the article’s conclusion that “ballistic droplets” are the significant cause of concern and that “sub-Flüggian” aerosols aren’t. The evidence suggests both are in play.

    (maybe i should look into what that boundary is terminology wise in terms of size and especially hang-time)

    In the restaurant case the source infected people well in front of him and behind him.

    “the Chinese inter-City bus” case which has already been posted here a few times showed spread form a guy who don’t talk to or touch anyone to people in front, behind and to the sides of him. One person infected 30 minutes after the source left the bus.

    Even if we get rid of the 30 minutes later case i think we’re taking about particles with hang time at least in the tens of seconds being a significant vector, but Janine on the tens of minutes or longer seems more likely.

    When you add in the dose dependence concept it fits together pretty well: the dose via large droplets is significantly higher than via small droplets hence the long exposure time requirement. It takes a certain amount of time to inhale enough particles and have them stick (as most are just exhaled anyway).

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    “the Chinese inter-City bus” case which has already been posted here a few times showed spread form a guy who don’t talk to or touch anyone to people in front, behind and to the sides of him
     
    Just curious, is Chinese your first language?
    , @Chrisnonymous

    (as most are just exhaled anyway).
     
    Do you have a source for that? I'm not challenging you, but this is what I have always assumed* but have never seen it in research.

    * because of the connection between activity, inflation, and pneumonia avoidance.
  19. Jonathan Kay is pretty smart for a journalist. He has a masters in metallurgical engineering from Mcgill in Montreal, and he scored a perfect 180 on the LSAT.

    He is a breath of fresh air in English-Canadian media, which is stultifyingly conformist. I suspect the most talented head to the States.

  20. Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes. This is coming from all over the world. Some of the real superspreaders are likely travel docs, nurses, PTs, medical device delivery people, etc. Basically all the people who travel between nursing homes delivering supplies and care. Please unlock the rest of us and focus resources on the front lines where they’re needed: the nursing homes.

    See Tyler Cowen’s thread and the comments. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/nursing-home-estimates-of-the-day.html

    • Agree: moshe
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Sounds plausible.
    , @Elli
    Deliveries are being made to vestibules of nursing homes. Staff picks up goods after deliveryman leaves. Staff has temperature checks at door, doesn't catch the asymptomatic spreaders.

    What you have is aides being kept under full time so they don't get benefits, so they work at multiple places. They tend to be immigrants, have a language barrier and many of them are poorly trained. Many live with extended families.

    You also have staff caring for infected and uninfected patients, a shortage of protective gear, nurses taking off their masks at nursing stations.

    Elderly people may not become febrile when ill; they may become lethargic or confused so no red flag of infection.

    You have staff quitting because they are terrified, and you probably have unsupervised children going to play with friends while their mother is at work.
    , @Captain Tripps

    Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes.
     
    Makes sense, at least outside the large, densely populated urban hot zones. The first big outbreak in the States was the King County, Washington senior long-term care facility. Here in the county I reside in, the two biggest outbreaks, accounting for just under half the cases and 3/4ths of the deaths were at two senior assisted living facilities.
    , @FPD72

    Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes.
     
    As of two days ago, 35 of the 39 Covid-19 deaths in the Lubbock, TX area were in one nursing home.
  21. @COVID Kids
    Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes. This is coming from all over the world. Some of the real superspreaders are likely travel docs, nurses, PTs, medical device delivery people, etc. Basically all the people who travel between nursing homes delivering supplies and care. Please unlock the rest of us and focus resources on the front lines where they're needed: the nursing homes.

    See Tyler Cowen's thread and the comments. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/nursing-home-estimates-of-the-day.html

    Sounds plausible.

    • Replies: @COVID Kids
    I forgot to add that literally the only person I know who has tested positive works food services for a chain of nursing homes in the Detroit area. He often has to ferry supplies between facilities. Luckily he recovered at home without too much trouble. He said the cough was the worst part.
  22. I don’t comment much because most everything is explained and investigated better by Steve (and the various commenters). However, I have come to a conclusion about this virus. It doesn’t exist.
    Yes, there is probably a novel coronavirus, but it causes mild chest cold symptoms if it causes anything at all. People are dying, but are they dying from the supposed virus, or from something else? I would say the latter. They are dying from all kinds of complications from their bad health/age/disease load.
    In my opinion this is how it worked: we were told there was a novel coronavirus and it was a killer. Okay, like SARS etc. dangerous stuff, right? Then a couple of really old people died in a nursing home. Killer they cried, we’re all going to die. Nobody actually confirmed that this virus did anything, they merely claimed they checked that the dead person had antibodies for the virus. The massive heart attack or the pancreatitis was irrelevant.
    This puzzled me; along with the CDC mandate to classify everything as a covid-19 death. That’s when I came to my theory that the virus wasn’t and we’d all been conned. It was the only thing that made any sense considering the extremely low death rate and the enormous amount of lying. Then I saw this video. It made sense. If there are any experts who can refute this then I would love to hear from them. This is the most important event of my (longish) lifetime and it perfectly sets the stage for the end of America. I knew Trump would disappoint me, but this was not how I saw it happening: by destroying his own work and his country in the name of bogus science. This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but with a virus.

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    Thanks, it’s nice when someone comes out with something so utterly idiotic you can put them on ignore right away. I didn’t even have to finish your first paragraph.
  23. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Good news Steve! The Fat Fuck that calls himself the governor of Illinois has just extended the stay at home order here in Illinois, and face masks will be required in public!

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/

    Isn't that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you've been asking for.

    You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.

    He has a name you know. It’s Jelly Belly. Governor Jelly Belly to you.

    and face masks will be required in public!

    Uh oh. If I am not around posting in the next few days someone come bail me out. We’ll see how this goes.

    I just said yesterday I was finally seeing store clerks not wearing them for the first time yesterday.

  24. @eD
    I remember a long time ago when it was just expected that you would get sick each winter and have to spend each time in bed.

    I'm wondering to what extent this is taking several cultural trends in the past and taking them to the level of hysteria:

    1. More aversion to face to face/ in-person mixing and contact. This was already noticeable before 2020.

    2. Less sick leave or tolerance of being absent at work, meaning its harder to just take to your bed for a week when you come down with something.

    3. Boomers not retiring from work or wanting to slow down their lifestyles. In the past, people who reached the age where they couldn't just shake off seasonal illnesses, which might kill them, were, well, retired. They didn't get out much anyway. Once boomers reach the age where they have to slow down, everyone has to slow down.

    4. Slipping grip on reality and the need for trade-offs. Yeah, if you mix with a lot of people, who might pick up something nasty.

    I'm not sure where the nursing homes fit into this, however.

    Yeah, I listen to people talk about Covid and I wonder ‘Have you ever had the flu?’

    They act like it’s a shock to be ill.

    I’m always sick, at least twice a year. Ironically, the year of Covid 2019-2020, I’ve gone almost a year with only a minor 36 hour exactly (it was amazing! at exactly 2 pm after 36 hours in bed I was…Fine? Got up and ate dinner…no cough..no runny nose…this was Late November) flu bug.

    Maybe there’s something weird going on…Maybe all the ‘Healthy, Never-Get Ill Tom Hanks’ people are Finally Getting Ill for the First time In Their Lives

    While all the people like me who get the flu 4 times a year are strangely…Not getting anything.

    REVENGE!!!

    Sorry…

    • Replies: @Thatgirl
    What is your blood type? Just a theory I’m exploring....
    , @Thoughts
    O

    But I'm pretty sure this whole thing is a giant scam

    I was one of the people to get H1N1 in L.A. and that was pure hell...I was on the floor of my kitchen gasping for breath (I was in my 20s)

    I also had a bad flu in 2005 where I turned green...my skin had a green palor for several days even after feeling better
  25. @Alexander Turok

    face masks will be required in public!
     
    There are people who consider it a huge civil rights violation that they aren't allowed to be nude in public. The rest of us consider it a non-issue. Wear the mask.

    Funny thing is that many of the same people saying things like this were talking six months ago about "soyboys" and how weak modern men are. How prior generations of men fought in long and brutal wars. Now you ask them to stay inside for two months and it's the end of the world. What a bunch of wusses.

    Stay in your home citizen.

    Embrace sodomy.

    Buy boner pills.

    Consume Corn.

    Wear your seatbelt.

    Embrace sodomy.

    Apologize for your racism.

    Recycle.

    Refinance your home.

    Embrace sodomy.

    • LOL: Manfred Arcane
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    "You can't reject the Left's nonsense without embrace my nonsense," - yes, yes I can. I generally support your right to not wear a seatbelt and do all that dumb stuff you think is necessary to not be gay:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCIo4MCO-_U

    But the problem is that corona is an infectious disease. Other people are impacted.
  26. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Good news Steve! The Fat Fuck that calls himself the governor of Illinois has just extended the stay at home order here in Illinois, and face masks will be required in public!

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/

    Isn't that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you've been asking for.

    You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.

    As you know, I am an Anti-Panicker but I’m not particularly “angry” about this whole quarantine business as you appear to be.

    I’m not disagreeing with anything you wrote but I am very curious about how angry you seem to be.

    You wrote:

    “You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.”

    I’m certain that I could provide many examples of this should anyone ask me to but I would be the wrong person for them to ask because my response would come from reasoned guessing and would only include personal anecdotes about how Quarantinism causes annoyances etc.

    So I’m curious about your anger and about the anger of the people you are referring to – so long as you know them personally.

    Could you please elaborate on why you are so mad?

    Communication on blogs can often be misread so let me make clear that I am simply curious to learn about the reason for your strong sentiments on this subject because while I have been the most consistent denier of “the plague”, I don’t have the anger that you have nor have I seen much of it in people I know personally. They may be annoyed, frazzled or upset but none of them seem to view Panickers as The Enemy, as you appear to.

    On this blog as well, such strong emotional and angry sentiments by other doubters are rare, hence my curiosity.

    Thanks.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
    Hi Moshe,

    I am pissed because Steve refused to even acknowledge any of the pertinent issues of these lock downs that don't directly affect him. For example, he celebrates the fact that Ventura County has reopened golf courses, which is you know, great for old men who like to golf and not getting too close to other people, but meanwhile, my 12 and 16 year old daughters are having the entirety of their lives placed into a virtual solitary confinement. Both do very well in school and enjoy it. Both are heavily involved in extracurriculars. My 16 year old has/had a job. Now they have been isolated from all of that while the full force of the corona cult attempts to brainwash them into celebrating this police state we've been forced into. Never mind the the unknown negative consequences of forcing people to hide out indoors and removing all real and intimate social contact. It's unnatural and the costs are impossible to know long tern. Sailer won't even pay lip service to any of these concerns.

    Also, we are a working class family - so we know lots and lots of people who are out of work indefinitely because of this - people with mortgages and children of their own. People in retail, food service, peripheral health care, etc all on UI for the first time in their lives. Fuck it Dude, let's go bowling; I mean, golfing.

    Hopefully this answers your question - and addresses Lars Porsena's concerns as well (and his reply to that troll was hilarious and spot on.) To the others - thanks for your input.

    I must also again mention that because I dared to disagree with Ron Unz in a James Thompson article about this corona bullshit he has restricted my commenting ability to 1 comment per day. Sailer, being a obsessive comment control freak himself, no doubt approves.

  27. @Steve Sailer
    Sounds plausible.

    I forgot to add that literally the only person I know who has tested positive works food services for a chain of nursing homes in the Detroit area. He often has to ferry supplies between facilities. Luckily he recovered at home without too much trouble. He said the cough was the worst part.

  28. @COVID Kids
    Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes. This is coming from all over the world. Some of the real superspreaders are likely travel docs, nurses, PTs, medical device delivery people, etc. Basically all the people who travel between nursing homes delivering supplies and care. Please unlock the rest of us and focus resources on the front lines where they're needed: the nursing homes.

    See Tyler Cowen's thread and the comments. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/nursing-home-estimates-of-the-day.html

    Deliveries are being made to vestibules of nursing homes. Staff picks up goods after deliveryman leaves. Staff has temperature checks at door, doesn’t catch the asymptomatic spreaders.

    What you have is aides being kept under full time so they don’t get benefits, so they work at multiple places. They tend to be immigrants, have a language barrier and many of them are poorly trained. Many live with extended families.

    You also have staff caring for infected and uninfected patients, a shortage of protective gear, nurses taking off their masks at nursing stations.

    Elderly people may not become febrile when ill; they may become lethargic or confused so no red flag of infection.

    You have staff quitting because they are terrified, and you probably have unsupervised children going to play with friends while their mother is at work.

  29. @eD
    I remember a long time ago when it was just expected that you would get sick each winter and have to spend each time in bed.

    I'm wondering to what extent this is taking several cultural trends in the past and taking them to the level of hysteria:

    1. More aversion to face to face/ in-person mixing and contact. This was already noticeable before 2020.

    2. Less sick leave or tolerance of being absent at work, meaning its harder to just take to your bed for a week when you come down with something.

    3. Boomers not retiring from work or wanting to slow down their lifestyles. In the past, people who reached the age where they couldn't just shake off seasonal illnesses, which might kill them, were, well, retired. They didn't get out much anyway. Once boomers reach the age where they have to slow down, everyone has to slow down.

    4. Slipping grip on reality and the need for trade-offs. Yeah, if you mix with a lot of people, who might pick up something nasty.

    I'm not sure where the nursing homes fit into this, however.

    I agree with your comment though (as an anti-Panicker from the very start) I see this aversion to sickness, slowing down and death to be a very very very good thing.

    I only worry that now that their panic has been publicly demonstrated to be so silly and their tactics so ridiculous that they will move a bit in the direction of the sort of Resignation that you are recollecting.

    I hope they don’t.

  30. @Alexander Turok

    face masks will be required in public!
     
    There are people who consider it a huge civil rights violation that they aren't allowed to be nude in public. The rest of us consider it a non-issue. Wear the mask.

    Funny thing is that many of the same people saying things like this were talking six months ago about "soyboys" and how weak modern men are. How prior generations of men fought in long and brutal wars. Now you ask them to stay inside for two months and it's the end of the world. What a bunch of wusses.

    You don’t seem self-aware enough to realize how very obtuse you’re being, so I’m not going to try to correct you. Your comment can stand as a momument to its own obliviousness.

    • Replies: @Manfred Arcane
    Our dino-fighting Mr. Turok is a troll on the same level as Corvinus; I recommend the Ignore button.
  31. @Mehen
    A couple of (possibly minor) observations I haven’t seen discussed much.

    1) With the recent hysteria it’s not a stretch to propose that many people are highly anxious, particularly those predisposed to anxiety disorders. Symptoms of which share a similarity to Covid symptoms: breathlessness, chest pain, etc.

    2) The longer people isolate the greater chance the virus has time to mutate into something that’ll REALLY get its hooks in ya in order to survive, instead of allowing it to be neutralized by early infection.

    There’s no button for “Mostly Agree” so it will have to do as a comment.

  32. @SFG
    “Introvert Thoth-Amon, what is worst in life?”

    “Wherever and whenever people are up in each other’s faces, laughing, shouting, cheering, sobbing, singing, greeting, and praying.”

    "What is best in life?"

    "A cold flask of the wines of Stygia, a text of ancient lore, and a warm bed. These things do not spread the crown-poison, unlike the pleasures of the masses of men."

    To lie with harlots!

  33. @Alexander Turok

    face masks will be required in public!
     
    There are people who consider it a huge civil rights violation that they aren't allowed to be nude in public. The rest of us consider it a non-issue. Wear the mask.

    Funny thing is that many of the same people saying things like this were talking six months ago about "soyboys" and how weak modern men are. How prior generations of men fought in long and brutal wars. Now you ask them to stay inside for two months and it's the end of the world. What a bunch of wusses.

    Now you ask them to stay inside…

    Tell, not ask. The reaction differs.

  34. In Britain the big SSE was apparently a horse race on St. Patrick’s Day. 250,000 people with funny hats crammed into a racetrack. That led to this.

    View post on imgur.com

    • Replies: @RobUK
    Yet Ireland isn’t as badly affected, despite the fact that tens of thousands of Irish would have been at the Festival. The area around Cheltenham is basically County Cork for a week.
  35. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:

    So like Berenson has been saying, locking people exclusively together in a house just spread it among families thus causing the post lockdown spike in cases. They only other people then affected are first repaknders and people near these victims in hospitals. The Chinese were telling families in Wuhan to open windows if they were locked down together.

    All we really needed to do was end larger Social gatherings, promote social distancing everywhere else, isolate the elderly. There was no need to cause the economic carnage on the level of shutting everything down outside of possibly NYC. Sweden was smart.

    • Replies: @DPG
    “ All we really needed to do was end larger Social gatherings, promote social distancing everywhere else, isolate the elderly.”

    This looks more and more like the case, which should allow us to open up in a controlled but widespread way. I’d also add that encouraging or even mandating masks in dense public places looks important. If the author is right that “flugge droplets” rather than aerosols are spreading this, then masks will greatly prevent the infected from spreading it, and even uninflected will get spared from getting hit directly in the face by some droplets.

    Our public health community really screwed the pooch when they said in March that the public shouldn’t go out and get masks.
  36. @vhrm
    I don't agree with the article's conclusion that "ballistic droplets" are the significant cause of concern and that "sub-Flüggian" aerosols aren't. The evidence suggests both are in play.

    (maybe i should look into what that boundary is terminology wise in terms of size and especially hang-time)

    In the restaurant case the source infected people well in front of him and behind him.

    "the Chinese inter-City bus" case which has already been posted here a few times showed spread form a guy who don't talk to or touch anyone to people in front, behind and to the sides of him. One person infected 30 minutes after the source left the bus.

    Even if we get rid of the 30 minutes later case i think we're taking about particles with hang time at least in the tens of seconds being a significant vector, but Janine on the tens of minutes or longer seems more likely.

    When you add in the dose dependence concept it fits together pretty well: the dose via large droplets is significantly higher than via small droplets hence the long exposure time requirement. It takes a certain amount of time to inhale enough particles and have them stick (as most are just exhaled anyway).

    “the Chinese inter-City bus” case which has already been posted here a few times showed spread form a guy who don’t talk to or touch anyone to people in front, behind and to the sides of him

    Just curious, is Chinese your first language?

    • Replies: @vhrm

    Just curious, is Chinese your first language?
     
    Heh heh. No. The bulk of the errors in my comments are because i'm usually doing it on a phone and using swype. So instead of single letter typos it's whole word substitutions that often don't even hint at what the original should be. And i don't proof read as much as i should.

    In the specific piece you quote that's why it's "don't talk" instead of "didn't talk".

    Other than that, i stand by the sentence. Ok maybe I'd add another "anyone" for parallel structure like so:
    "didn't talk to [anyone] or touch anyone "

    But other than that i stand by it.
  37. @eD
    I remember a long time ago when it was just expected that you would get sick each winter and have to spend each time in bed.

    I'm wondering to what extent this is taking several cultural trends in the past and taking them to the level of hysteria:

    1. More aversion to face to face/ in-person mixing and contact. This was already noticeable before 2020.

    2. Less sick leave or tolerance of being absent at work, meaning its harder to just take to your bed for a week when you come down with something.

    3. Boomers not retiring from work or wanting to slow down their lifestyles. In the past, people who reached the age where they couldn't just shake off seasonal illnesses, which might kill them, were, well, retired. They didn't get out much anyway. Once boomers reach the age where they have to slow down, everyone has to slow down.

    4. Slipping grip on reality and the need for trade-offs. Yeah, if you mix with a lot of people, who might pick up something nasty.

    I'm not sure where the nursing homes fit into this, however.

    I’ve noticed this also in the almost hysterical descriptions provided by the media of what sounds, to me, like fairly normal bouts with a flu-like illness. For instance, Chris Cuomo acted like he was on death’s door even while he was still able to do a nightly news broadcast.

    I have had two bouts in the past ten years with bad viruses, one was probably the flu and one was Coxsackievirus. Both left me prostate in bed for a number of days and then recovering for at least a couple of weeks. With Coxsackievirus, my throat was in so much pain I could barely drink water.

    I think that many people, because of flu vaccines, have simply not been really sick in a long time, thus they simply are overwhelmed when they get a bad illness.

    • Replies: @anon
    Both left me prostate in bed for a number of days

    Did you discuss this with your doctor?
  38. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Good news Steve! The Fat Fuck that calls himself the governor of Illinois has just extended the stay at home order here in Illinois, and face masks will be required in public!

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/

    Isn't that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you've been asking for.

    You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.

    On second reading you are kind of mean to Steve though you should be more understanding.

    Steve advocates his own point of view, he doesn’t run around screaming to shoot the people who don’t comply like a lot of panicked nutters do. I disagree with him but he’s been pretty reasonable about this and his info has been fair (I think half of his own news facts discredit any panic).

    • Agree: Polynikes
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I strongly encourage debate. There is no time when freedom of speech ought to be more obviously valuable than in a novel situation where the facts and how best to respond to them are both in doubt.
    , @moshe
    Yup.

    That's why I don't mind if Steve doesn't publicly admit his error. (I will be disappointed and surprised if Scott Alexander doesn't do so when he eventually figures it out.) Steve has been fairer than most of the Panickers from the very start. A bit too credulous and fearful but fair and publicly sharing good information that opposes his original view.

    , @Liberty Mike
    Being reasonable, per se, means:

    (1) Being as cool as the other side of the pillow;

    (2) Dismissing the proposition that Dr. Anthony "chicken little" Fauci, a public sector lifer, is somehow a leader to be trusted;

    (3) Rejecting the mantra that "public health experts" are to be trusted;

    (4) Rejecting the notion that "experts" are leaders capable of seeing the big picture and weighing all of the costs attendant to the implementation of their schemes;

    (5) Understanding that those who allow their positions to be ruled by their fear hormones do not care about the costs of policy predicated upon, and suited to, allaying their fear;

    (6) Recognizing that we have become unacceptably feminized;

    (7) There is no covidia exception to the Bill of Rights;

    (8) One cuck's craven covidiphobia does not trump a rational person's right to earn a living;

    (9) One cuck's craven covidiphobia does not trump a rational person's right to patronize the business of another rational person's business;

    (10) One Karen's craven coviphobia does not trump a group of rational individuals' rights to peacefully assemble, without masks, and without complying with social distancing practices.
  39. @Lars Porsena
    On second reading you are kind of mean to Steve though you should be more understanding.

    Steve advocates his own point of view, he doesn't run around screaming to shoot the people who don't comply like a lot of panicked nutters do. I disagree with him but he's been pretty reasonable about this and his info has been fair (I think half of his own news facts discredit any panic).

    I strongly encourage debate. There is no time when freedom of speech ought to be more obviously valuable than in a novel situation where the facts and how best to respond to them are both in doubt.

  40. @Intelligent Dasein
    You don't seem self-aware enough to realize how very obtuse you're being, so I'm not going to try to correct you. Your comment can stand as a momument to its own obliviousness.

    Our dino-fighting Mr. Turok is a troll on the same level as Corvinus; I recommend the Ignore button.

  41. @Anonymous
    So like Berenson has been saying, locking people exclusively together in a house just spread it among families thus causing the post lockdown spike in cases. They only other people then affected are first repaknders and people near these victims in hospitals. The Chinese were telling families in Wuhan to open windows if they were locked down together.

    All we really needed to do was end larger Social gatherings, promote social distancing everywhere else, isolate the elderly. There was no need to cause the economic carnage on the level of shutting everything down outside of possibly NYC. Sweden was smart.

    “ All we really needed to do was end larger Social gatherings, promote social distancing everywhere else, isolate the elderly.”

    This looks more and more like the case, which should allow us to open up in a controlled but widespread way. I’d also add that encouraging or even mandating masks in dense public places looks important. If the author is right that “flugge droplets” rather than aerosols are spreading this, then masks will greatly prevent the infected from spreading it, and even uninflected will get spared from getting hit directly in the face by some droplets.

    Our public health community really screwed the pooch when they said in March that the public shouldn’t go out and get masks.

  42. @Alexander Turok

    face masks will be required in public!
     
    There are people who consider it a huge civil rights violation that they aren't allowed to be nude in public. The rest of us consider it a non-issue. Wear the mask.

    Funny thing is that many of the same people saying things like this were talking six months ago about "soyboys" and how weak modern men are. How prior generations of men fought in long and brutal wars. Now you ask them to stay inside for two months and it's the end of the world. What a bunch of wusses.

    Wow. Your way of thinking is fascinating.

    First of all, you, and all of the other Panickers and Go-Alongers should have the decency and intellectual honesty to publicly admit that you were wrong and to publicly state your admiration for clearer thinkers who got it right.

    Second of all, how much brain pain does one have to suffer to come to the conclusion that the “I aint wearin no stinkin mask” fellas (such as myself and Donald Trump) are the “soyboys”, while the people staying home with a lock on the door and wearing masks (and demanding that everyone else wear them too) are the brave sort of people akin to those who fought in WW2. I mean, does your brain always work that way? It’s wild!

    P.S. I apologize for the personal attack and hope that you take it in the jocular kibbitzing manner in which it is intended. Unfortunately, such kibbitzing isn’t really possible via text without all of the body language that kibbitzing requires but I suppose you and all of the other brave folk who have the courage to refrain from face to face conversations with strangers will be okay with never kibbitzing again and remaining Puritan Solemn in all of your interactions via text.

    P.P.S. Your conclusions about who the soyboys were reminded me of Rayban’s ad campaign for dark sunglasses called “Never Hide” where they tried to make imply that sunglass-wearers who can’t look people in the eye are somehow the proud and out people ready to take on any personal encounter. Sunglass-wearers are either hypochondriacs, Puritans or pussies. And so are bubble boys who want everyone walking around like the brave men who took away ET. 🙂

    • Thanks: Manfred Arcane
    • Replies: @Alexander Turok

    Second of all, how much brain pain does one have to suffer to come to the conclusion that the “I aint wearin no stinkin mask” fellas (such as myself and Donald Trump) are the “soyboys”, while the people staying home with a lock on the door and wearing masks (and demanding that everyone else wear them too) are the brave sort of people akin to those who fought in WW2. I mean, does your brain always work that way? It’s wild!
     
    I look at it in terms of self-sacrifice. Prior generations of men were asked to fight in brutal wars for the sake of their country. Most of those wars were dumb and not worth it, but that's another topic. If you aren't even willing to make the teeny tiny sacrifice of putting on a mask to keep other people safe, I don't have respect for you.
  43. Steve noticed some of this stuff first. Does Kay read Steve?

    Also, why has this not been noticed by mainstream researchers, or at least reported in the media? It’s politically correct to discourage flying, right?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Kay is following a similar methodology to ones I've used in the past, like when I followed up on 21 supposed hate crimes chosen by the NYT for their "This Week in Hate" column:

    https://www.takimag.com/article/the-21-club/

    Uncredentialed journalists don't get much respect for doing this, as opposed to reporting on academics doing the same thing.

  44. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Good news Steve! The Fat Fuck that calls himself the governor of Illinois has just extended the stay at home order here in Illinois, and face masks will be required in public!

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/

    Isn't that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you've been asking for.

    You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.

  45. @Thatgirl
    I've noticed this also in the almost hysterical descriptions provided by the media of what sounds, to me, like fairly normal bouts with a flu-like illness. For instance, Chris Cuomo acted like he was on death's door even while he was still able to do a nightly news broadcast.

    I have had two bouts in the past ten years with bad viruses, one was probably the flu and one was Coxsackievirus. Both left me prostate in bed for a number of days and then recovering for at least a couple of weeks. With Coxsackievirus, my throat was in so much pain I could barely drink water.

    I think that many people, because of flu vaccines, have simply not been really sick in a long time, thus they simply are overwhelmed when they get a bad illness.

    Both left me prostate in bed for a number of days

    Did you discuss this with your doctor?

    • LOL: Coemgen
  46. @Anon
    Steve noticed some of this stuff first. Does Kay read Steve?

    Also, why has this not been noticed by mainstream researchers, or at least reported in the media? It's politically correct to discourage flying, right?

    Kay is following a similar methodology to ones I’ve used in the past, like when I followed up on 21 supposed hate crimes chosen by the NYT for their “This Week in Hate” column:

    https://www.takimag.com/article/the-21-club/

    Uncredentialed journalists don’t get much respect for doing this, as opposed to reporting on academics doing the same thing.

  47. @Lars Porsena
    On second reading you are kind of mean to Steve though you should be more understanding.

    Steve advocates his own point of view, he doesn't run around screaming to shoot the people who don't comply like a lot of panicked nutters do. I disagree with him but he's been pretty reasonable about this and his info has been fair (I think half of his own news facts discredit any panic).

    Yup.

    That’s why I don’t mind if Steve doesn’t publicly admit his error. (I will be disappointed and surprised if Scott Alexander doesn’t do so when he eventually figures it out.) Steve has been fairer than most of the Panickers from the very start. A bit too credulous and fearful but fair and publicly sharing good information that opposes his original view.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    moshe, Steve is like a good bartender. He lets you spout off and he still pours you another drink. Rarely, if ever, throws anyone out on their ass.
  48. @FlayOtters
    I don't comment much because most everything is explained and investigated better by Steve (and the various commenters). However, I have come to a conclusion about this virus. It doesn't exist.
    Yes, there is probably a novel coronavirus, but it causes mild chest cold symptoms if it causes anything at all. People are dying, but are they dying from the supposed virus, or from something else? I would say the latter. They are dying from all kinds of complications from their bad health/age/disease load.
    In my opinion this is how it worked: we were told there was a novel coronavirus and it was a killer. Okay, like SARS etc. dangerous stuff, right? Then a couple of really old people died in a nursing home. Killer they cried, we're all going to die. Nobody actually confirmed that this virus did anything, they merely claimed they checked that the dead person had antibodies for the virus. The massive heart attack or the pancreatitis was irrelevant.
    This puzzled me; along with the CDC mandate to classify everything as a covid-19 death. That's when I came to my theory that the virus wasn't and we'd all been conned. It was the only thing that made any sense considering the extremely low death rate and the enormous amount of lying. Then I saw this video. It made sense. If there are any experts who can refute this then I would love to hear from them. This is the most important event of my (longish) lifetime and it perfectly sets the stage for the end of America. I knew Trump would disappoint me, but this was not how I saw it happening: by destroying his own work and his country in the name of bogus science. This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but with a virus.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCqg8sXKyw8&feature=emb_logo

    Thanks, it’s nice when someone comes out with something so utterly idiotic you can put them on ignore right away. I didn’t even have to finish your first paragraph.

  49. Thanks for this article, Steve; it’s very good. Kay’s analysis fits in well with what’s been going on here in Hong Kong: the ‘big spreads’ were at a religious gathering place (i.e. the ‘Buddha Hall’), and in crowded drinks-n-partying venues.

    Although HK is arguably the world’s most dense and crowded city, and the one that depends most on mass transit, there really is almost no evidence that the virus has been spread just by people being crowded together for brief periods, e.g. on trains and buses.

    But the X factor, of course, is mask-wearing, which is almost universal here. On that topic, I recommend the following article from the Atlantic, which I assumed had long ago banned publishing any sensible. Its take on mask-wearing — i.e. that masks work because they hold viruses in, not because they protect individual mask-wearers — is in my view the most accurate assessment I’ve seen in the media.

    The Real Reason to Wear a Mask

    I highly recommend reading it.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    Another casualty of HIV. In the past, masks were thought of as protective of patients, especially surgical patients. It is only in the last few decades that mask-wearing came to be thought of as protective of the wearer, and my guess is that the change was largely from recommendations to health care workers to wear masks in order to protect themselves from fluid transmission (blood spatter, etc).
  50. @eD
    I remember a long time ago when it was just expected that you would get sick each winter and have to spend each time in bed.

    I'm wondering to what extent this is taking several cultural trends in the past and taking them to the level of hysteria:

    1. More aversion to face to face/ in-person mixing and contact. This was already noticeable before 2020.

    2. Less sick leave or tolerance of being absent at work, meaning its harder to just take to your bed for a week when you come down with something.

    3. Boomers not retiring from work or wanting to slow down their lifestyles. In the past, people who reached the age where they couldn't just shake off seasonal illnesses, which might kill them, were, well, retired. They didn't get out much anyway. Once boomers reach the age where they have to slow down, everyone has to slow down.

    4. Slipping grip on reality and the need for trade-offs. Yeah, if you mix with a lot of people, who might pick up something nasty.

    I'm not sure where the nursing homes fit into this, however.

    eD, many people won’t take days off sick because they can “bank” their sick days and redeem them for cash when they retire. Very selfish of let’s say a teacher to work in a classroom when they should be home recovering.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    many people won’t take days off sick because they can “bank” their sick days and redeem them for cash when they retire.
     
    This is true, but then again many people are dedicated to their jobs and don't want to dump their own work on someone else as extra work.
    , @Lugash
    Government employees might be able to bank their sick time to retirement, but I've never seen it in the private sector. At most I've seen one week of sick time rolling over.

    In private sector things are run so lean that if you're out it's going to impact your team. Your coworkers will notice that, as will you boss. And when layoffs come around and your CFO is looking at his 'What will it cost to get rid of this employee?' spreadsheet the people with a week of sick time and the week of vacation will be safer.

    Contrary to this, in my particular area of white collar corporate America I've seen hard working white guys hitting short term disability. I've obviously got anecdata here, but I see them working to the point of exhaustion, then getting a doctor's note for a couple of months off while they recover.
  51. When do COVID-19 SSEs happen? Based on the list I’ve assembled, the short answer is: Wherever and whenever people are up in each other’s faces, laughing, shouting, cheering, sobbing, singing, greeting, and praying.

    My friend who was, actually still is last I heard, in intensive care with COVID-19 is a dentist. He, too, has a habit of getting up into people’s faces when there is saliva spraying about.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I presume the dental profession has some protocols from the last century over how to deal with infectious people who need dental care. I presume the PPE is the short supply.
  52. @Buffalo Joe
    eD, many people won't take days off sick because they can "bank" their sick days and redeem them for cash when they retire. Very selfish of let's say a teacher to work in a classroom when they should be home recovering.

    many people won’t take days off sick because they can “bank” their sick days and redeem them for cash when they retire.

    This is true, but then again many people are dedicated to their jobs and don’t want to dump their own work on someone else as extra work.

  53. @Reg Cæsar

    For example, imagine that NYC subways were an important avenue of infection. But imagine how much harder a problem the subway poses problem they pose for contract tracers than, say, a wedding reception with an official invite list.
     
    Well, they use magnetic-strip cards now instead of the old anonymous tokens. If they're swiped at the exits as well as the entrance, that would supply a lot of information. Even if not, return trips would do the same.

    You wouldn't know the individual passengers by name, but you'd have their transit patterns and place of purchase.


    ...talking and perhaps singing excitedly at least one way. (If Bergamo won, then both ways.)
     
    I'd rather deal with their singing after a win than their vomit after a loss. I shared a Belgian ferry with defeated Arsenal supporters once, and a Glasgow hostel with drawn Celtic ones, over from Ireland.

    Still, thanks for the reminder. I'd forgotten all about Atalanta BC which, were their logo full-figure, would be even better than AS Roma's. Oh, wait... it once was:


    https://seeklogo.com/images/A/atalanta-bc-bergamo-60-s-70-s-old-logo-3951A0D777-seeklogo.com.png

    Atalanta is one of my second favourite clubs in Serie A. They always punch above their weight due to their strong youth policy, judicious acquisitions and uncharacteristically loyal players.

    Also, they have a Greek name.

  54. @Lars Porsena
    Stay in your home citizen.

    Embrace sodomy.

    Buy boner pills.

    Consume Corn.

    Wear your seatbelt.

    Embrace sodomy.

    Apologize for your racism.

    Recycle.

    Refinance your home.

    Embrace sodomy.

    “You can’t reject the Left’s nonsense without embrace my nonsense,” – yes, yes I can. I generally support your right to not wear a seatbelt and do all that dumb stuff you think is necessary to not be gay:

    But the problem is that corona is an infectious disease. Other people are impacted.

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
    It's like 'won't someone please think of the children' but coming from a guy.

    This is how you end up tyrannized by the emotions of a 14 year old girl. Ruled by women and children.

    You have a greater than 98% chance of survival. Probably greater than 99.8%.

    We are as a society entitled and detached from reality. People think they are entitled to not be exposed to a disease. If masks work, yours will work. If masks don't work, there is no reason for me to wear one.

    Someone has to face life, including death. Many of us takes risks larger than this coronavirus every day, just to get through the day. Some of us do it for fun (extreme sports, motorsports, sketchy carnival rides).

    We have reached the point where, as a society, we have let a 14 year old girl tell us to slaughter all the livestock and shelter in our homes until utopia comes. She thinks she deserves to live in a world without disease and is entitled to it. The problem is other people are not delivering it for her, so now she will go on a tear. Instead of correcting her BS and stabilizing her neurosis, a bunch of full grown guys are hiding behind her and indulging their own neurosis over mortality.

    Someone has to face life, including death. Ultimately, all deaths are necessary and medical science has not actually saved a single person yet. All they do is stall.

    What's the game plan? What are we trying to prevent? Eventually you will have to take your mask off and live or die by your 98% chance. There is no other way out of this life. What if there is no vaccine? Will you wear the mask forever? Close restaurants and cancel concerts forever?

    By the time you take the mask off I will either be dead or I will have beat it and acquired antibodies so I can't spread it. We can't create a world without disease so nothing negatively effects you.

    I have been walking around for 2 months with no mask, along with a lot of other people. As far as I can tell I haven't even caught the damn thing. But you want me to start wearing a mask now, when it's probably already over?

    Why, are you scared that if people see I'm not dead they might take off their masks and grow up to face life, and then eventually you will have to come outside too?

    Suck it up buttercup, choose life (which includes death, as opposed to fantasy and neurosis). Stop hiding behind a 14 year old girls sense of entitlement. You only have a 98% chance of survival. Greet Death like a man. I saw a diabetic mestiza today embrace the reaper and breath the putrid miasma deep into her lungs, finally consigning herself to fate and accepting the inevitability of her own demise. Survival is futile. Stand at the front of the bow like Odysseus and scream into the storm, 'Is this all you've got Corona-chan? Is this the best you can do?'

    They are practically giving it to you for free. In a 0.1% storm the Odyssey would have read as parody. Odysseus would have been screaming at foggy drizzle.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxcJW6bs5os
  55. @moshe
    Yup.

    That's why I don't mind if Steve doesn't publicly admit his error. (I will be disappointed and surprised if Scott Alexander doesn't do so when he eventually figures it out.) Steve has been fairer than most of the Panickers from the very start. A bit too credulous and fearful but fair and publicly sharing good information that opposes his original view.

    moshe, Steve is like a good bartender. He lets you spout off and he still pours you another drink. Rarely, if ever, throws anyone out on their ass.

  56. @vhrm
    I don't agree with the article's conclusion that "ballistic droplets" are the significant cause of concern and that "sub-Flüggian" aerosols aren't. The evidence suggests both are in play.

    (maybe i should look into what that boundary is terminology wise in terms of size and especially hang-time)

    In the restaurant case the source infected people well in front of him and behind him.

    "the Chinese inter-City bus" case which has already been posted here a few times showed spread form a guy who don't talk to or touch anyone to people in front, behind and to the sides of him. One person infected 30 minutes after the source left the bus.

    Even if we get rid of the 30 minutes later case i think we're taking about particles with hang time at least in the tens of seconds being a significant vector, but Janine on the tens of minutes or longer seems more likely.

    When you add in the dose dependence concept it fits together pretty well: the dose via large droplets is significantly higher than via small droplets hence the long exposure time requirement. It takes a certain amount of time to inhale enough particles and have them stick (as most are just exhaled anyway).

    (as most are just exhaled anyway).

    Do you have a source for that? I’m not challenging you, but this is what I have always assumed* but have never seen it in research.

    * because of the connection between activity, inflation, and pneumonia avoidance.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    Short answer: i don't have a reference.

    ---
    I originally saw it back in the "efficacy of masks" argument days. It was in an article about the various challenges a virus particle has to go through to infect you (including various defenses), but i can't find where.

    There seem to be a lot of research about "retained fraction" of inhaled medicine and pollutants but they seem to focus on what fraction of particles reach different areas of the respiratory system.. and not on what is exhaled and the papers are too detailed for me to understand (at least for the level of effort in willing to put in).

    This one's pretty interesting and i can understand
    It looks at retained fraction of particles, by size during normal tidal breathing (they measured inhaled particles minus exhaled)

    They found it varies a lot from person to person and with particle size. But in the 50nm to 2um it stays below half. So the claim, when it comes to aerosol virus particles (< 5um) and their dried up "droplet nuclei" is plausible.

    https://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs12989-017-0190-8/MediaObjects/12989_2017_190_Fig1_HTML.gif?as=webp

    "Deposition efficiency of inhaled particles (15-5000 nm) related to breathing pattern and lung function: an experimental study in healthy children and adults"
    (https://particleandfibretoxicology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12989-017-0190-8#Tab3)

    Also ran into this decent Wired article about the ambiguity and arguments about what "it's airborne means.
    https://www.wired.com/story/they-say-coronavirus-isnt-airborne-but-its-definitely-borne-by-air/
    ( A good thing to point to if someone's arguing "but they said it's not airborne!". It's not new (3/15), but it's a good overview)

    ---
    Finally,
    "Collection, particle sizing and detection of airborne viruses" (https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jam.14278)
    Its introduction is an interesting overview of virus particles sizes and challenges to detecting viruses in the air.
  57. @moshe
    Wow. Your way of thinking is fascinating.

    First of all, you, and all of the other Panickers and Go-Alongers should have the decency and intellectual honesty to publicly admit that you were wrong and to publicly state your admiration for clearer thinkers who got it right.

    Second of all, how much brain pain does one have to suffer to come to the conclusion that the "I aint wearin no stinkin mask" fellas (such as myself and Donald Trump) are the "soyboys", while the people staying home with a lock on the door and wearing masks (and demanding that everyone else wear them too) are the brave sort of people akin to those who fought in WW2. I mean, does your brain always work that way? It's wild!

    P.S. I apologize for the personal attack and hope that you take it in the jocular kibbitzing manner in which it is intended. Unfortunately, such kibbitzing isn't really possible via text without all of the body language that kibbitzing requires but I suppose you and all of the other brave folk who have the courage to refrain from face to face conversations with strangers will be okay with never kibbitzing again and remaining Puritan Solemn in all of your interactions via text.


    P.P.S. Your conclusions about who the soyboys were reminded me of Rayban's ad campaign for dark sunglasses called "Never Hide" where they tried to make imply that sunglass-wearers who can't look people in the eye are somehow the proud and out people ready to take on any personal encounter. Sunglass-wearers are either hypochondriacs, Puritans or pussies. And so are bubble boys who want everyone walking around like the brave men who took away ET. :)

    Second of all, how much brain pain does one have to suffer to come to the conclusion that the “I aint wearin no stinkin mask” fellas (such as myself and Donald Trump) are the “soyboys”, while the people staying home with a lock on the door and wearing masks (and demanding that everyone else wear them too) are the brave sort of people akin to those who fought in WW2. I mean, does your brain always work that way? It’s wild!

    I look at it in terms of self-sacrifice. Prior generations of men were asked to fight in brutal wars for the sake of their country. Most of those wars were dumb and not worth it, but that’s another topic. If you aren’t even willing to make the teeny tiny sacrifice of putting on a mask to keep other people safe, I don’t have respect for you.

  58. @The Last Real Calvinist
    Thanks for this article, Steve; it's very good. Kay's analysis fits in well with what's been going on here in Hong Kong: the 'big spreads' were at a religious gathering place (i.e. the 'Buddha Hall'), and in crowded drinks-n-partying venues.

    Although HK is arguably the world's most dense and crowded city, and the one that depends most on mass transit, there really is almost no evidence that the virus has been spread just by people being crowded together for brief periods, e.g. on trains and buses.

    But the X factor, of course, is mask-wearing, which is almost universal here. On that topic, I recommend the following article from the Atlantic, which I assumed had long ago banned publishing any sensible. Its take on mask-wearing -- i.e. that masks work because they hold viruses in, not because they protect individual mask-wearers -- is in my view the most accurate assessment I've seen in the media.

    The Real Reason to Wear a Mask

    I highly recommend reading it.

    Another casualty of HIV. In the past, masks were thought of as protective of patients, especially surgical patients. It is only in the last few decades that mask-wearing came to be thought of as protective of the wearer, and my guess is that the change was largely from recommendations to health care workers to wear masks in order to protect themselves from fluid transmission (blood spatter, etc).

  59. @Thoughts
    Yeah, I listen to people talk about Covid and I wonder 'Have you ever had the flu?'

    They act like it's a shock to be ill.

    I'm always sick, at least twice a year. Ironically, the year of Covid 2019-2020, I've gone almost a year with only a minor 36 hour exactly (it was amazing! at exactly 2 pm after 36 hours in bed I was...Fine? Got up and ate dinner...no cough..no runny nose...this was Late November) flu bug.

    Maybe there's something weird going on...Maybe all the 'Healthy, Never-Get Ill Tom Hanks' people are Finally Getting Ill for the First time In Their Lives

    While all the people like me who get the flu 4 times a year are strangely...Not getting anything.

    REVENGE!!!

    Sorry...

    What is your blood type? Just a theory I’m exploring….

  60. One aspect of the difference between early superspreader events and later spread: Early in an epidemic, people are going to be less aware. If you have a cough and aren’t really aware that’s there’s an epidemic starting, you aren’t going to think anything of going to a party. On the other hand, in the middle of an epidemic, if you have a cough, maybe you think about staying home. I think that dynamic has to contribute a lot.

    We saw early superspreading because people weren’t aware, and we saw it in the well-off first not because they have more fun but because they are connected to international travel. Travel and lack of awareness.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks.

    So the question is whether Kay's analysis of superspreader events is informative about which businesses are risky and which are reasonably safe, or whether there is some fundamental bias that means his findings aren't very useful.

  61. @Chrisnonymous
    One aspect of the difference between early superspreader events and later spread: Early in an epidemic, people are going to be less aware. If you have a cough and aren't really aware that's there's an epidemic starting, you aren't going to think anything of going to a party. On the other hand, in the middle of an epidemic, if you have a cough, maybe you think about staying home. I think that dynamic has to contribute a lot.

    We saw early superspreading because people weren't aware, and we saw it in the well-off first not because they have more fun but because they are connected to international travel. Travel and lack of awareness.

    Thanks.

    So the question is whether Kay’s analysis of superspreader events is informative about which businesses are risky and which are reasonably safe, or whether there is some fundamental bias that means his findings aren’t very useful.

  62. @Anonymous

    “the Chinese inter-City bus” case which has already been posted here a few times showed spread form a guy who don’t talk to or touch anyone to people in front, behind and to the sides of him
     
    Just curious, is Chinese your first language?

    Just curious, is Chinese your first language?

    Heh heh. No. The bulk of the errors in my comments are because i’m usually doing it on a phone and using swype. So instead of single letter typos it’s whole word substitutions that often don’t even hint at what the original should be. And i don’t proof read as much as i should.

    In the specific piece you quote that’s why it’s “don’t talk” instead of “didn’t talk”.

    Other than that, i stand by the sentence. Ok maybe I’d add another “anyone” for parallel structure like so:
    “didn’t talk to [anyone] or touch anyone ”

    But other than that i stand by it.

  63. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Good news Steve! The Fat Fuck that calls himself the governor of Illinois has just extended the stay at home order here in Illinois, and face masks will be required in public!

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/

    Isn't that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you've been asking for.

    You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.

    Thanks, Mike. I hadn’t seen that.

  64. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Good news Steve! The Fat Fuck that calls himself the governor of Illinois has just extended the stay at home order here in Illinois, and face masks will be required in public!

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order/

    Isn't that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you've been asking for.

    You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself.

    “Isn’t that great?? You and the other corona acolytes should throw a party celebrating this police state you’ve been asking for.”

    I feel you, brother. The chemotard and all around boomerfag Steve Sailer is jizzing his pants whilst shitting his bed. Highest point of his irrelevant life.

    #CoronaHoax

  65. The Rolling Stones – Living In A Ghost Town (Official Video)

    [MORE]

  66. @AnotherDad

    This is depressing. The accumulating evidence appears to be that most of the grimmer economic activities, outside of perhaps taking the NYC subway to work, aren’t all that dangerous, but the social activities that make getting and spending much more worth living are.

    Basically, activities that a Boston Puritan minister of 1650 would have approved of, such as many forms of making money and listening attentively to his sermons, seem less dangerous, while the more dangerous activities are what we tend to think of as either fun or cathartic.
     
    I don't know. I can live a long and happy life without any of that. I have zero use for listening to some minister drone on, but along with useful productive work

    Outdoor recreation--camping, hiking, kayaking, biking,
    Golf, tennis, swimming,
    Skiing--without the crowded public clubbing.
    The beach.
    Road trips--hitting the national parks.
    Having friends/family over for dinner, drinks--more quiet, more comfortable, don't have to shout.
    Watching movies at home.
    Reading books ... or iSteve.
    Enjoying family conversation, games, meals.
    Sex.

    I think i'm going to be just fine in the new order.

    >Sex.

    Hmm…

    Well, if, as is no doubt the case, there are many who find the study and discussion of that particular linguistic construct interesting, I suppose it only makes sense that at least some of them would also find it downright enjoyable.

    Oh, wait…It’s gender that prevailing woke-speak incorrectly uses in place of sex. Not vice-versa. Sorry.

    So you properly meant sex, then? That you enjoy being unequivocally and unapologetically male?

    What’s that, you say? That’s not quite what you meant, either?

    So then, you must have meant…

    Really? There are people who actually enjoy that? You don’t say.

  67. @Jonathan Mason

    When do COVID-19 SSEs happen? Based on the list I’ve assembled, the short answer is: Wherever and whenever people are up in each other’s faces, laughing, shouting, cheering, sobbing, singing, greeting, and praying.
     
    My friend who was, actually still is last I heard, in intensive care with COVID-19 is a dentist. He, too, has a habit of getting up into people's faces when there is saliva spraying about.

    I presume the dental profession has some protocols from the last century over how to deal with infectious people who need dental care. I presume the PPE is the short supply.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    Arizona shut down non-emergency dentistry because dental work consumes so much PPE and it can't be reused.
    , @Anonymous
    I think I can answer this to you. I am 40, and recently I had a bad cavity on my right upper molar. It was infected with the roots badly damaged. I opted in having the tooth removed instead of doing root canal treatment, which would be a long process because the tooth was badly damaged and there was a high probability of the RCT failing anyway.

    So, feeling the worst pain of my life with a hole in my tooth, badly infected with my jaw all blown up and pus coming out from my gapped tooth, I had to go find an odontological surgeon in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    I eventually found a dental emergency that accepted to see me. What they were doing is that they were receiving only one patient at a time, and the dentist that was going to perform the surgery on me had a full medical mask with plastic goggles for the eyes. The room was sterilized with a strong solution of clorhexidine. Thjy uusally use that only inside the roots of teeth during root canal treatment to kill the bacteria before sealing the gap and on the utensiles that will be used during treatment, but now they were using it on everything. Literally on everything.

    So this is how they deal with it: receive only one patient at a time, full full medical gear and sterilize with potent sterilizers with a degree of thoroughness that only dentists are used to doing(because they have to, as sealing a gap in the tooth without killing 99.999999% of the bacteria results in reinfection and a much bigger problem, as the bugs infect the bone of the jaw and you can lose your entire face)
  68. @Alexander Turok

    face masks will be required in public!
     
    There are people who consider it a huge civil rights violation that they aren't allowed to be nude in public. The rest of us consider it a non-issue. Wear the mask.

    Funny thing is that many of the same people saying things like this were talking six months ago about "soyboys" and how weak modern men are. How prior generations of men fought in long and brutal wars. Now you ask them to stay inside for two months and it's the end of the world. What a bunch of wusses.

    Actual active and healthy men require pretty strong evidence to stay inside. I’m not saying you’re a woman, but only a woman would compare weak acquiesce to hiding inside to that of combat experience. And I’ve been in a war, though thankfully it wasn’t a brutal war for me.

    Hint: only women and preachers and worthless SJWs shame. Men tend to convince. And if I’m out by myself wandering around the neighborhood I don’t wear a mask. If wearing a mask is a necessary tradeoff for resuming full employment indoors, sounds very reasonable to me. Telling me I need to wear one arbitrarily wandering around the neighborhood is insipid nonsense.

  69. @Alexander Turok

    face masks will be required in public!
     
    There are people who consider it a huge civil rights violation that they aren't allowed to be nude in public. The rest of us consider it a non-issue. Wear the mask.

    Funny thing is that many of the same people saying things like this were talking six months ago about "soyboys" and how weak modern men are. How prior generations of men fought in long and brutal wars. Now you ask them to stay inside for two months and it's the end of the world. What a bunch of wusses.

    Now you ask them to stay inside for two months

    Relatively easy to do in a nice single-family house with a pretty yard (or acres of land). Imagine being stuck in a small unit in a high-density building like the ones you want plonked all over the place. (#152, etc.) No thanks.

    Single-family-house zoning for the win!

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    You don't want to live in a small unit in a high-density building? Don't live in a small unit in a high-density building.
  70. @Buffalo Joe
    eD, many people won't take days off sick because they can "bank" their sick days and redeem them for cash when they retire. Very selfish of let's say a teacher to work in a classroom when they should be home recovering.

    Government employees might be able to bank their sick time to retirement, but I’ve never seen it in the private sector. At most I’ve seen one week of sick time rolling over.

    In private sector things are run so lean that if you’re out it’s going to impact your team. Your coworkers will notice that, as will you boss. And when layoffs come around and your CFO is looking at his ‘What will it cost to get rid of this employee?’ spreadsheet the people with a week of sick time and the week of vacation will be safer.

    Contrary to this, in my particular area of white collar corporate America I’ve seen hard working white guys hitting short term disability. I’ve obviously got anecdata here, but I see them working to the point of exhaustion, then getting a doctor’s note for a couple of months off while they recover.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Lugash, thank you. Around here teachers can "bank" their sick time and cash out at retirement. My cousin pocketed a check for $65,000 (sick time/personal time.) My wife worked for the school district for about 10 years, saw it all the time. But, if a teacher is sick and teaches four classes of 25 students per day, she or he can affect 100 students in a day and their families.
  71. @Steve Sailer
    I presume the dental profession has some protocols from the last century over how to deal with infectious people who need dental care. I presume the PPE is the short supply.

    Arizona shut down non-emergency dentistry because dental work consumes so much PPE and it can’t be reused.

  72. @Chrisnonymous

    (as most are just exhaled anyway).
     
    Do you have a source for that? I'm not challenging you, but this is what I have always assumed* but have never seen it in research.

    * because of the connection between activity, inflation, and pneumonia avoidance.

    Short answer: i don’t have a reference.


    I originally saw it back in the “efficacy of masks” argument days. It was in an article about the various challenges a virus particle has to go through to infect you (including various defenses), but i can’t find where.

    There seem to be a lot of research about “retained fraction” of inhaled medicine and pollutants but they seem to focus on what fraction of particles reach different areas of the respiratory system.. and not on what is exhaled and the papers are too detailed for me to understand (at least for the level of effort in willing to put in).

    This one’s pretty interesting and i can understand
    It looks at retained fraction of particles, by size during normal tidal breathing (they measured inhaled particles minus exhaled)

    They found it varies a lot from person to person and with particle size. But in the 50nm to 2um it stays below half. So the claim, when it comes to aerosol virus particles (< 5um) and their dried up "droplet nuclei" is plausible.

    "Deposition efficiency of inhaled particles (15-5000 nm) related to breathing pattern and lung function: an experimental study in healthy children and adults"
    (https://particleandfibretoxicology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12989-017-0190-8#Tab3)

    Also ran into this decent Wired article about the ambiguity and arguments about what "it's airborne means.
    https://www.wired.com/story/they-say-coronavirus-isnt-airborne-but-its-definitely-borne-by-air/
    ( A good thing to point to if someone's arguing "but they said it's not airborne!". It's not new (3/15), but it's a good overview)


    Finally,
    "Collection, particle sizing and detection of airborne viruses" (https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jam.14278)
    Its introduction is an interesting overview of virus particles sizes and challenges to detecting viruses in the air.

  73. Anonymous[303] • Disclaimer says: • Website
    @Steve Sailer
    I presume the dental profession has some protocols from the last century over how to deal with infectious people who need dental care. I presume the PPE is the short supply.

    I think I can answer this to you. I am 40, and recently I had a bad cavity on my right upper molar. It was infected with the roots badly damaged. I opted in having the tooth removed instead of doing root canal treatment, which would be a long process because the tooth was badly damaged and there was a high probability of the RCT failing anyway.

    So, feeling the worst pain of my life with a hole in my tooth, badly infected with my jaw all blown up and pus coming out from my gapped tooth, I had to go find an odontological surgeon in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    I eventually found a dental emergency that accepted to see me. What they were doing is that they were receiving only one patient at a time, and the dentist that was going to perform the surgery on me had a full medical mask with plastic goggles for the eyes. The room was sterilized with a strong solution of clorhexidine. Thjy uusally use that only inside the roots of teeth during root canal treatment to kill the bacteria before sealing the gap and on the utensiles that will be used during treatment, but now they were using it on everything. Literally on everything.

    So this is how they deal with it: receive only one patient at a time, full full medical gear and sterilize with potent sterilizers with a degree of thoroughness that only dentists are used to doing(because they have to, as sealing a gap in the tooth without killing 99.999999% of the bacteria results in reinfection and a much bigger problem, as the bugs infect the bone of the jaw and you can lose your entire face)

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Thanks. Hope you are feeling better.
  74. @Anonymous
    I think I can answer this to you. I am 40, and recently I had a bad cavity on my right upper molar. It was infected with the roots badly damaged. I opted in having the tooth removed instead of doing root canal treatment, which would be a long process because the tooth was badly damaged and there was a high probability of the RCT failing anyway.

    So, feeling the worst pain of my life with a hole in my tooth, badly infected with my jaw all blown up and pus coming out from my gapped tooth, I had to go find an odontological surgeon in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    I eventually found a dental emergency that accepted to see me. What they were doing is that they were receiving only one patient at a time, and the dentist that was going to perform the surgery on me had a full medical mask with plastic goggles for the eyes. The room was sterilized with a strong solution of clorhexidine. Thjy uusally use that only inside the roots of teeth during root canal treatment to kill the bacteria before sealing the gap and on the utensiles that will be used during treatment, but now they were using it on everything. Literally on everything.

    So this is how they deal with it: receive only one patient at a time, full full medical gear and sterilize with potent sterilizers with a degree of thoroughness that only dentists are used to doing(because they have to, as sealing a gap in the tooth without killing 99.999999% of the bacteria results in reinfection and a much bigger problem, as the bugs infect the bone of the jaw and you can lose your entire face)

    Thanks. Hope you are feeling better.

  75. The common thread between all these SSEs is “events you would still attend even if you weren’t feeling great”.

    Going to a wedding or funeral? Pop a couple of Tylenol and enjoy seeing the extended family. Going on holiday with non-refundable flights booked months in advance? You’re not going to cancel that. If this had hit later in the year, graduation ceremonies would be another huge SSE.

    By contrast, going to the movies is very easy to cancel. Driving holidays or one-day breaks (local theme parks) you’re more likely to cancel. A restaurant meal with friends is easily rescheduled.

    In the past, I seem to recall airlines offered free cancellation or rescheduling. Maybe that needs to come back, even if it pushes up ticket prices.

    • Replies: @res

    The common thread between all these SSEs is “events you would still attend even if you weren’t feeling great”.
     
    A good point. That might be the social convention that most needs to change next flu season. And the "going to work/school anyway" equivalent.
  76. I don’t know whether other have mentioned it, but I think there is some statistical bias. The events which get identified as single super-spreading events might not be the events which cause the majority of infections. There are far less single events of e.g. funerals than of school lessons. So while for a single school lesson the risk of infection might be smaller than for a single funeral the aggregated risk of all lessons might still be higher than the aggregated risk for all school lessons. The same holds true for many other professional or educational social occasions. I would guess that at the beginning of the epidemic SSE might play a big role but in the middle of the epidemic non-SSE infections play at least a role as important as non-SSE infections. That´s why lock-downs still make sense right now. But for future epidemics administrations should concentrate on SSE right from the beginning on.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right. It's hard to tell whether there's a big difference between early and later events. Early events were biased toward social events, but later events may have been more work-a-day. It's hard to tell.
    , @res
    One of the differences is the network connectivity of the events. I think school lessons will tend to impact a more contained network than bigger gatherings which may involve people coming from out of town (e.g. weddings and funerals).

    I think the essence of a "super spreader event" is that a single event distributes the disease into many other networks all at once.
  77. @Erik Sieven
    I don't know whether other have mentioned it, but I think there is some statistical bias. The events which get identified as single super-spreading events might not be the events which cause the majority of infections. There are far less single events of e.g. funerals than of school lessons. So while for a single school lesson the risk of infection might be smaller than for a single funeral the aggregated risk of all lessons might still be higher than the aggregated risk for all school lessons. The same holds true for many other professional or educational social occasions. I would guess that at the beginning of the epidemic SSE might play a big role but in the middle of the epidemic non-SSE infections play at least a role as important as non-SSE infections. That´s why lock-downs still make sense right now. But for future epidemics administrations should concentrate on SSE right from the beginning on.

    Right. It’s hard to tell whether there’s a big difference between early and later events. Early events were biased toward social events, but later events may have been more work-a-day. It’s hard to tell.

  78. @COVID Kids
    Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes. This is coming from all over the world. Some of the real superspreaders are likely travel docs, nurses, PTs, medical device delivery people, etc. Basically all the people who travel between nursing homes delivering supplies and care. Please unlock the rest of us and focus resources on the front lines where they're needed: the nursing homes.

    See Tyler Cowen's thread and the comments. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/nursing-home-estimates-of-the-day.html

    Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes.

    Makes sense, at least outside the large, densely populated urban hot zones. The first big outbreak in the States was the King County, Washington senior long-term care facility. Here in the county I reside in, the two biggest outbreaks, accounting for just under half the cases and 3/4ths of the deaths were at two senior assisted living facilities.

  79. The Gangelt one is interesting, all that swaying and singing. Sway left, sway right, each of which brings you into the areas into which your immediate neighbours are exhaling heavily. And then into yours.

  80. @Bragadocious
    In Britain the big SSE was apparently a horse race on St. Patrick's Day. 250,000 people with funny hats crammed into a racetrack. That led to this.

    https://imgur.com/8Y4xHAO

    Yet Ireland isn’t as badly affected, despite the fact that tens of thousands of Irish would have been at the Festival. The area around Cheltenham is basically County Cork for a week.

  81. @Thoughts
    Yeah, I listen to people talk about Covid and I wonder 'Have you ever had the flu?'

    They act like it's a shock to be ill.

    I'm always sick, at least twice a year. Ironically, the year of Covid 2019-2020, I've gone almost a year with only a minor 36 hour exactly (it was amazing! at exactly 2 pm after 36 hours in bed I was...Fine? Got up and ate dinner...no cough..no runny nose...this was Late November) flu bug.

    Maybe there's something weird going on...Maybe all the 'Healthy, Never-Get Ill Tom Hanks' people are Finally Getting Ill for the First time In Their Lives

    While all the people like me who get the flu 4 times a year are strangely...Not getting anything.

    REVENGE!!!

    Sorry...

    O

    But I’m pretty sure this whole thing is a giant scam

    I was one of the people to get H1N1 in L.A. and that was pure hell…I was on the floor of my kitchen gasping for breath (I was in my 20s)

    I also had a bad flu in 2005 where I turned green…my skin had a green palor for several days even after feeling better

  82. @moshe
    As you know, I am an Anti-Panicker but I'm not particularly "angry" about this whole quarantine business as you appear to be.

    I'm not disagreeing with anything you wrote but I am very curious about how angry you seem to be.

    You wrote:

    "You have no idea, nor do you care, about how many peoples lives are being fucked with here. All you care about is yourself."

    I'm certain that I could provide many examples of this should anyone ask me to but I would be the wrong person for them to ask because my response would come from reasoned guessing and would only include personal anecdotes about how Quarantinism causes annoyances etc.

    So I'm curious about your anger and about the anger of the people you are referring to - so long as you know them personally.

    Could you please elaborate on why you are so mad?

    Communication on blogs can often be misread so let me make clear that I am simply curious to learn about the reason for your strong sentiments on this subject because while I have been the most consistent denier of "the plague", I don't have the anger that you have nor have I seen much of it in people I know personally. They may be annoyed, frazzled or upset but none of them seem to view Panickers as The Enemy, as you appear to.

    On this blog as well, such strong emotional and angry sentiments by other doubters are rare, hence my curiosity.

    Thanks.

    Hi Moshe,

    I am pissed because Steve refused to even acknowledge any of the pertinent issues of these lock downs that don’t directly affect him. For example, he celebrates the fact that Ventura County has reopened golf courses, which is you know, great for old men who like to golf and not getting too close to other people, but meanwhile, my 12 and 16 year old daughters are having the entirety of their lives placed into a virtual solitary confinement. Both do very well in school and enjoy it. Both are heavily involved in extracurriculars. My 16 year old has/had a job. Now they have been isolated from all of that while the full force of the corona cult attempts to brainwash them into celebrating this police state we’ve been forced into. Never mind the the unknown negative consequences of forcing people to hide out indoors and removing all real and intimate social contact. It’s unnatural and the costs are impossible to know long tern. Sailer won’t even pay lip service to any of these concerns.

    Also, we are a working class family – so we know lots and lots of people who are out of work indefinitely because of this – people with mortgages and children of their own. People in retail, food service, peripheral health care, etc all on UI for the first time in their lives. Fuck it Dude, let’s go bowling; I mean, golfing.

    Hopefully this answers your question – and addresses Lars Porsena’s concerns as well (and his reply to that troll was hilarious and spot on.) To the others – thanks for your input.

    I must also again mention that because I dared to disagree with Ron Unz in a James Thompson article about this corona bullshit he has restricted my commenting ability to 1 comment per day. Sailer, being a obsessive comment control freak himself, no doubt approves.

    • Thanks: moshe
    • Replies: @vhrm

    has restricted my commenting ability to 1 comment per day.
     
    that sucks. I hope it's temporary and he lets you out of comment jail soon.
    , @Bragadocious

    I must also again mention that because I dared to disagree with Ron Unz in a James Thompson article about this corona bullshit he has restricted my commenting ability to 1 comment per day.
     
    "Support free thought and free speech"

    --Unz Review
  83. Not all nursing homes are equally dangerous. I am the septuagenarian whose wife is in

    a nursing home after an apparent “stroke.” (Scans showed no evidence of stroke).

    It was hard to find a home willing to take her. Can’t stand or walk, can’t talk and

    on 24/7 oxygen due to interstitial lung disease (never smoked). Has to be lifted by hoist.

    Most homes didn’t want her. Too much work and care needed plus liability if

    interruption in oxygen supply occurs.

    Got her in private room with separate entrance to patio. room has separate

    heating and cooling. At the end of a long hallway. So far no infections for

    two years. Main caregivers are brothers of owner who are better than regular

    hourly employees. They’re full time and have medical insurance provided.

    Only six patients–all non-ambulatory and suffering dementia.

    Larger nursing homes are circuses. Too many poorly paid part-time staff members and

    visiting nurses.

    • Replies: @res
    Good luck to both of you. That is a difficult situation.
  84. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Now you ask them to stay inside for two months
     
    Relatively easy to do in a nice single-family house with a pretty yard (or acres of land). Imagine being stuck in a small unit in a high-density building like the ones you want plonked all over the place. (#152, etc.) No thanks.

    Single-family-house zoning for the win!

    You don’t want to live in a small unit in a high-density building? Don’t live in a small unit in a high-density building.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Don’t live in a small unit in a high-density building.
     
    Not only that, but my fellow NIMBYs and I will continue to vote against pro-density zoning changes. :)
  85. @COVID Kids
    Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes. This is coming from all over the world. Some of the real superspreaders are likely travel docs, nurses, PTs, medical device delivery people, etc. Basically all the people who travel between nursing homes delivering supplies and care. Please unlock the rest of us and focus resources on the front lines where they're needed: the nursing homes.

    See Tyler Cowen's thread and the comments. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/nursing-home-estimates-of-the-day.html

    Many studies are coming out now indicating over 50% of deaths are linked to nursing homes.

    As of two days ago, 35 of the 39 Covid-19 deaths in the Lubbock, TX area were in one nursing home.

  86. Kay’s article is valuable. In a widespread problem like COVID it is more important to trace activities than persons – because so many are asymptomatic contact tracing won’t work.

    If “herd immunity” is a thing, then maybe it is important that people do low risk activities (like retail shopping) – because it may be that people are getting exposed in these situations but the viral load is low so almost everyone who is exposed in such a symptom is asymptomatic.

  87. @Alexander Turok
    "You can't reject the Left's nonsense without embrace my nonsense," - yes, yes I can. I generally support your right to not wear a seatbelt and do all that dumb stuff you think is necessary to not be gay:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCIo4MCO-_U

    But the problem is that corona is an infectious disease. Other people are impacted.

    It’s like ‘won’t someone please think of the children’ but coming from a guy.

    This is how you end up tyrannized by the emotions of a 14 year old girl. Ruled by women and children.

    You have a greater than 98% chance of survival. Probably greater than 99.8%.

    We are as a society entitled and detached from reality. People think they are entitled to not be exposed to a disease. If masks work, yours will work. If masks don’t work, there is no reason for me to wear one.

    Someone has to face life, including death. Many of us takes risks larger than this coronavirus every day, just to get through the day. Some of us do it for fun (extreme sports, motorsports, sketchy carnival rides).

    We have reached the point where, as a society, we have let a 14 year old girl tell us to slaughter all the livestock and shelter in our homes until utopia comes. She thinks she deserves to live in a world without disease and is entitled to it. The problem is other people are not delivering it for her, so now she will go on a tear. Instead of correcting her BS and stabilizing her neurosis, a bunch of full grown guys are hiding behind her and indulging their own neurosis over mortality.

    Someone has to face life, including death. Ultimately, all deaths are necessary and medical science has not actually saved a single person yet. All they do is stall.

    What’s the game plan? What are we trying to prevent? Eventually you will have to take your mask off and live or die by your 98% chance. There is no other way out of this life. What if there is no vaccine? Will you wear the mask forever? Close restaurants and cancel concerts forever?

    By the time you take the mask off I will either be dead or I will have beat it and acquired antibodies so I can’t spread it. We can’t create a world without disease so nothing negatively effects you.

    I have been walking around for 2 months with no mask, along with a lot of other people. As far as I can tell I haven’t even caught the damn thing. But you want me to start wearing a mask now, when it’s probably already over?

    Why, are you scared that if people see I’m not dead they might take off their masks and grow up to face life, and then eventually you will have to come outside too?

    Suck it up buttercup, choose life (which includes death, as opposed to fantasy and neurosis). Stop hiding behind a 14 year old girls sense of entitlement. You only have a 98% chance of survival. Greet Death like a man. I saw a diabetic mestiza today embrace the reaper and breath the putrid miasma deep into her lungs, finally consigning herself to fate and accepting the inevitability of her own demise. Survival is futile. Stand at the front of the bow like Odysseus and scream into the storm, ‘Is this all you’ve got Corona-chan? Is this the best you can do?’

    They are practically giving it to you for free. In a 0.1% storm the Odyssey would have read as parody. Odysseus would have been screaming at foggy drizzle.

    • Agree: Mehen
  88. >>Suck it up buttercup, choose life (which includes death, as opposed to fantasy and neurosis). Stop hiding behind a 14 year old girls sense of entitlement.<<

    Hmmm… both sexist and stupidly macho.

    All of your keyboard chest thumping seems highly unnecessary if you had some kind of rational argument. Would you fly on the 98% "non fatal" flight, even if practically free? I didn't think so.

    Yes, with politicians and bad information. Nearly all brand new info is usually wrong; even more so with previously unknown medical diseases, e.g. AIDS, remember? "Breaking News" is rarely factually complete or accurate. So killer viruses are in the same cycle of fear of the unknown to gradual rational defenses. Your personal preference for risk (as boasted in safe typing) doesn't set the standard for the public. Neither does mine. Politicians have a huge fear of being criticized for ignoring public safety. They get elected by majorities, remember?

    You might respect the fact that over half of the public is female. They have different standards of safety and fear than most men. So either you hate women or have zero knowledge of their normal attitudes and behavior. And 98% survival isn't universal for anyone, is it? Lots of people, even young ones, have medical conditions which make them vulnerable and fragile. Men too.

    First, panic, then over-reaction, then gradual learning of real dangers, then, eventually realistic protections and rational responses. "Lars" here must really miss his leather bar pals, now they these are closed. Don't bring your misogynistic queer rantings here, please!

    • Disagree: moshe
  89. @Andrew M
    The common thread between all these SSEs is “events you would still attend even if you weren’t feeling great”.

    Going to a wedding or funeral? Pop a couple of Tylenol and enjoy seeing the extended family. Going on holiday with non-refundable flights booked months in advance? You’re not going to cancel that. If this had hit later in the year, graduation ceremonies would be another huge SSE.

    By contrast, going to the movies is very easy to cancel. Driving holidays or one-day breaks (local theme parks) you’re more likely to cancel. A restaurant meal with friends is easily rescheduled.

    In the past, I seem to recall airlines offered free cancellation or rescheduling. Maybe that needs to come back, even if it pushes up ticket prices.

    The common thread between all these SSEs is “events you would still attend even if you weren’t feeling great”.

    A good point. That might be the social convention that most needs to change next flu season. And the “going to work/school anyway” equivalent.

  90. @Erik Sieven
    I don't know whether other have mentioned it, but I think there is some statistical bias. The events which get identified as single super-spreading events might not be the events which cause the majority of infections. There are far less single events of e.g. funerals than of school lessons. So while for a single school lesson the risk of infection might be smaller than for a single funeral the aggregated risk of all lessons might still be higher than the aggregated risk for all school lessons. The same holds true for many other professional or educational social occasions. I would guess that at the beginning of the epidemic SSE might play a big role but in the middle of the epidemic non-SSE infections play at least a role as important as non-SSE infections. That´s why lock-downs still make sense right now. But for future epidemics administrations should concentrate on SSE right from the beginning on.

    One of the differences is the network connectivity of the events. I think school lessons will tend to impact a more contained network than bigger gatherings which may involve people coming from out of town (e.g. weddings and funerals).

    I think the essence of a “super spreader event” is that a single event distributes the disease into many other networks all at once.

  91. @gary
    Not all nursing homes are equally dangerous. I am the septuagenarian whose wife is in

    a nursing home after an apparent "stroke." (Scans showed no evidence of stroke).

    It was hard to find a home willing to take her. Can't stand or walk, can't talk and

    on 24/7 oxygen due to interstitial lung disease (never smoked). Has to be lifted by hoist.

    Most homes didn't want her. Too much work and care needed plus liability if

    interruption in oxygen supply occurs.


    Got her in private room with separate entrance to patio. room has separate

    heating and cooling. At the end of a long hallway. So far no infections for

    two years. Main caregivers are brothers of owner who are better than regular

    hourly employees. They're full time and have medical insurance provided.

    Only six patients--all non-ambulatory and suffering dementia.

    Larger nursing homes are circuses. Too many poorly paid part-time staff members and

    visiting nurses.

    Good luck to both of you. That is a difficult situation.

  92. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Hi Moshe,

    I am pissed because Steve refused to even acknowledge any of the pertinent issues of these lock downs that don't directly affect him. For example, he celebrates the fact that Ventura County has reopened golf courses, which is you know, great for old men who like to golf and not getting too close to other people, but meanwhile, my 12 and 16 year old daughters are having the entirety of their lives placed into a virtual solitary confinement. Both do very well in school and enjoy it. Both are heavily involved in extracurriculars. My 16 year old has/had a job. Now they have been isolated from all of that while the full force of the corona cult attempts to brainwash them into celebrating this police state we've been forced into. Never mind the the unknown negative consequences of forcing people to hide out indoors and removing all real and intimate social contact. It's unnatural and the costs are impossible to know long tern. Sailer won't even pay lip service to any of these concerns.

    Also, we are a working class family - so we know lots and lots of people who are out of work indefinitely because of this - people with mortgages and children of their own. People in retail, food service, peripheral health care, etc all on UI for the first time in their lives. Fuck it Dude, let's go bowling; I mean, golfing.

    Hopefully this answers your question - and addresses Lars Porsena's concerns as well (and his reply to that troll was hilarious and spot on.) To the others - thanks for your input.

    I must also again mention that because I dared to disagree with Ron Unz in a James Thompson article about this corona bullshit he has restricted my commenting ability to 1 comment per day. Sailer, being a obsessive comment control freak himself, no doubt approves.

    has restricted my commenting ability to 1 comment per day.

    that sucks. I hope it’s temporary and he lets you out of comment jail soon.

  93. @Lugash
    Government employees might be able to bank their sick time to retirement, but I've never seen it in the private sector. At most I've seen one week of sick time rolling over.

    In private sector things are run so lean that if you're out it's going to impact your team. Your coworkers will notice that, as will you boss. And when layoffs come around and your CFO is looking at his 'What will it cost to get rid of this employee?' spreadsheet the people with a week of sick time and the week of vacation will be safer.

    Contrary to this, in my particular area of white collar corporate America I've seen hard working white guys hitting short term disability. I've obviously got anecdata here, but I see them working to the point of exhaustion, then getting a doctor's note for a couple of months off while they recover.

    Lugash, thank you. Around here teachers can “bank” their sick time and cash out at retirement. My cousin pocketed a check for $65,000 (sick time/personal time.) My wife worked for the school district for about 10 years, saw it all the time. But, if a teacher is sick and teaches four classes of 25 students per day, she or he can affect 100 students in a day and their families.

  94. @Lars Porsena
    On second reading you are kind of mean to Steve though you should be more understanding.

    Steve advocates his own point of view, he doesn't run around screaming to shoot the people who don't comply like a lot of panicked nutters do. I disagree with him but he's been pretty reasonable about this and his info has been fair (I think half of his own news facts discredit any panic).

    Being reasonable, per se, means:

    (1) Being as cool as the other side of the pillow;

    (2) Dismissing the proposition that Dr. Anthony “chicken little” Fauci, a public sector lifer, is somehow a leader to be trusted;

    (3) Rejecting the mantra that “public health experts” are to be trusted;

    (4) Rejecting the notion that “experts” are leaders capable of seeing the big picture and weighing all of the costs attendant to the implementation of their schemes;

    (5) Understanding that those who allow their positions to be ruled by their fear hormones do not care about the costs of policy predicated upon, and suited to, allaying their fear;

    (6) Recognizing that we have become unacceptably feminized;

    (7) There is no covidia exception to the Bill of Rights;

    (8) One cuck’s craven covidiphobia does not trump a rational person’s right to earn a living;

    (9) One cuck’s craven covidiphobia does not trump a rational person’s right to patronize the business of another rational person’s business;

    (10) One Karen’s craven coviphobia does not trump a group of rational individuals’ rights to peacefully assemble, without masks, and without complying with social distancing practices.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok

    (6) Recognizing that we have become unacceptably feminized;
     
    Rationality and science are not regarded as "feminine" by all of us. Certainly by some, though:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn200lvmTZc

    (10) One Karen’s craven coviphobia
     
    The reasonable person is non-ironically using the term "Karen" and believes that making up "phobias" counts as an argument...
  95. @SFG
    “Introvert Thoth-Amon, what is worst in life?”

    “Wherever and whenever people are up in each other’s faces, laughing, shouting, cheering, sobbing, singing, greeting, and praying.”

    "What is best in life?"

    "A cold flask of the wines of Stygia, a text of ancient lore, and a warm bed. These things do not spread the crown-poison, unlike the pleasures of the masses of men."

    Meanwhile, I still don’t know anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone who has this thing.

    Don’t know anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone who’s died from it either.

    Not one.

    • Replies: @moshe
    I know plenty of people diagnosed with Covid. Heck, my own brother and his kids had/have it and my sister in law's grandfather died from it.

    But.

    Of the 17 or so people whom I know that had it, the only 2 deaths were of of people who were around 90 and were already quite ill before they caught Covid.

    All of the others felt a little shvach (slightly weak and inease) and some lost their sense of smell for a few weeks but none required hospitalization or even the sick bed. Including the 65 year olds.

    Look. Thank God (an expression of gratitude that has no secular equivalent I know of or I might prefer it) illness and sickness have almost vanished from most parts of the world. At least for the vast vast majority of non-hypochondriacs born after 1950.

    That's pretty F'n good.

    So I don't begrudge people who don't wish to accept Covid as an unavoidable plague sent by a wrathful God/Planet that only the weak refuse to proudly die from.

    I like them and thank god for them.

    They have given me an extraordinarily healthy and happy life so far and their worries and concerns and angry refusal to accept illness and death as natural are likely to grant me increasingly more years of the same.

    That doesn't mean that I need to catch the mental illness of their exaggerated fears any more than I need to vote in order to benefit from the pleasures of Democracy.

    Public shaming is a natural way for society to keep there from being too many others who think rationally about it as well. It's religious in nature and practice and that's cool with me. I can like religion without being relivious myself. I can prefer that ~80% of young and seemingly healthy people wear masks while sneering at their womanly fearfulness and happily living the good life mask-free.

    Eschewing "The Mask" may soon become the armband sign of rebellion.

    The single most blatant characteristic of President Trump (I can't get over how much fun it is to say that :) ) is that he lacks a sense of shame. It's an absolute marvel to behold.

    I'm nowhere close to his level but I can't help but be proud of the fact that I like to park in handicapped spaces (while handicapped people make handicapped faces [inside joke]) and to laugh at people to fearful to do so even when it's evident that it far more available than can be necessary for any handicapped people who may show up.

    Unwarranted womanish fear and submission to societal or dictatorial rule and rules is the point at hand. I stand behind no one in my admiration for the great Mahatma Gandhi.

    At the same time - Thank God for the natural female impulses that forced Mankind into such a beatific society as the one we are so fortunate to live in!
  96. @Liberty Mike
    Being reasonable, per se, means:

    (1) Being as cool as the other side of the pillow;

    (2) Dismissing the proposition that Dr. Anthony "chicken little" Fauci, a public sector lifer, is somehow a leader to be trusted;

    (3) Rejecting the mantra that "public health experts" are to be trusted;

    (4) Rejecting the notion that "experts" are leaders capable of seeing the big picture and weighing all of the costs attendant to the implementation of their schemes;

    (5) Understanding that those who allow their positions to be ruled by their fear hormones do not care about the costs of policy predicated upon, and suited to, allaying their fear;

    (6) Recognizing that we have become unacceptably feminized;

    (7) There is no covidia exception to the Bill of Rights;

    (8) One cuck's craven covidiphobia does not trump a rational person's right to earn a living;

    (9) One cuck's craven covidiphobia does not trump a rational person's right to patronize the business of another rational person's business;

    (10) One Karen's craven coviphobia does not trump a group of rational individuals' rights to peacefully assemble, without masks, and without complying with social distancing practices.

    (6) Recognizing that we have become unacceptably feminized;

    Rationality and science are not regarded as “feminine” by all of us. Certainly by some, though:

    (10) One Karen’s craven coviphobia

    The reasonable person is non-ironically using the term “Karen” and believes that making up “phobias” counts as an argument…

    • Troll: moshe
    • Replies: @moshe
    You are posting clips from Idiocracy that have as much bearing on your arguments as calling mountain climbers "soyboys" and Ann Coulter Berkeley Lecture Attendees "snowflakes".

    These are shaming tactics that don't sufficiently pass the smell test to even have any effect.

    " No, You're a towel!"


    https://youtu.be/Bvi0JSYUv_w
  97. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @eD
    I remember a long time ago when it was just expected that you would get sick each winter and have to spend each time in bed.

    I'm wondering to what extent this is taking several cultural trends in the past and taking them to the level of hysteria:

    1. More aversion to face to face/ in-person mixing and contact. This was already noticeable before 2020.

    2. Less sick leave or tolerance of being absent at work, meaning its harder to just take to your bed for a week when you come down with something.

    3. Boomers not retiring from work or wanting to slow down their lifestyles. In the past, people who reached the age where they couldn't just shake off seasonal illnesses, which might kill them, were, well, retired. They didn't get out much anyway. Once boomers reach the age where they have to slow down, everyone has to slow down.

    4. Slipping grip on reality and the need for trade-offs. Yeah, if you mix with a lot of people, who might pick up something nasty.

    I'm not sure where the nursing homes fit into this, however.

    Once boomers reach the age where they have to slow down, everyone has to slow down.

    That’s it. Exactly right.

    I remember when my dad hit middle age he suddenly became a fitness/health fanatic. I wouldn’t have cared, except that he insisted the entire family also join him in his new lifestyle. Bullshit.

    The principle here is the same.

  98. @Alexander Turok
    You don't want to live in a small unit in a high-density building? Don't live in a small unit in a high-density building.

    Don’t live in a small unit in a high-density building.

    Not only that, but my fellow NIMBYs and I will continue to vote against pro-density zoning changes. 🙂

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    Morons gonna moron, I just wish you'd stay in California and enjoy your high housing costs and stop bringing that crap into my state.
  99. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Don’t live in a small unit in a high-density building.
     
    Not only that, but my fellow NIMBYs and I will continue to vote against pro-density zoning changes. :)

    Morons gonna moron, I just wish you’d stay in California and enjoy your high housing costs and stop bringing that crap into my state.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    I just wish you’d stay in California
     
    Huh? I don’t live in California.
  100. @Richard B
    Meanwhile, I still don't know anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone who has this thing.

    Don't know anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone who's died from it either.

    Not one.

    I know plenty of people diagnosed with Covid. Heck, my own brother and his kids had/have it and my sister in law’s grandfather died from it.

    But.

    Of the 17 or so people whom I know that had it, the only 2 deaths were of of people who were around 90 and were already quite ill before they caught Covid.

    All of the others felt a little shvach (slightly weak and inease) and some lost their sense of smell for a few weeks but none required hospitalization or even the sick bed. Including the 65 year olds.

    Look. Thank God (an expression of gratitude that has no secular equivalent I know of or I might prefer it) illness and sickness have almost vanished from most parts of the world. At least for the vast vast majority of non-hypochondriacs born after 1950.

    That’s pretty F’n good.

    So I don’t begrudge people who don’t wish to accept Covid as an unavoidable plague sent by a wrathful God/Planet that only the weak refuse to proudly die from.

    I like them and thank god for them.

    They have given me an extraordinarily healthy and happy life so far and their worries and concerns and angry refusal to accept illness and death as natural are likely to grant me increasingly more years of the same.

    That doesn’t mean that I need to catch the mental illness of their exaggerated fears any more than I need to vote in order to benefit from the pleasures of Democracy.

    Public shaming is a natural way for society to keep there from being too many others who think rationally about it as well. It’s religious in nature and practice and that’s cool with me. I can like religion without being relivious myself. I can prefer that ~80% of young and seemingly healthy people wear masks while sneering at their womanly fearfulness and happily living the good life mask-free.

    Eschewing “The Mask” may soon become the armband sign of rebellion.

    The single most blatant characteristic of President Trump (I can’t get over how much fun it is to say that 🙂 ) is that he lacks a sense of shame. It’s an absolute marvel to behold.

    I’m nowhere close to his level but I can’t help but be proud of the fact that I like to park in handicapped spaces (while handicapped people make handicapped faces [inside joke]) and to laugh at people to fearful to do so even when it’s evident that it far more available than can be necessary for any handicapped people who may show up.

    Unwarranted womanish fear and submission to societal or dictatorial rule and rules is the point at hand. I stand behind no one in my admiration for the great Mahatma Gandhi.

    At the same time – Thank God for the natural female impulses that forced Mankind into such a beatific society as the one we are so fortunate to live in!

    • Replies: @Mehen

    I’m nowhere close to his level but I can’t help but be proud of the fact that I like to park in handicapped spaces (while handicapped people make handicapped faces [inside joke])
     
    Either explain your statement or be forever known as a shitbag.

    Sorry, personal peeve of mine.
  101. @Alexander Turok

    (6) Recognizing that we have become unacceptably feminized;
     
    Rationality and science are not regarded as "feminine" by all of us. Certainly by some, though:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn200lvmTZc

    (10) One Karen’s craven coviphobia
     
    The reasonable person is non-ironically using the term "Karen" and believes that making up "phobias" counts as an argument...

    You are posting clips from Idiocracy that have as much bearing on your arguments as calling mountain climbers “soyboys” and Ann Coulter Berkeley Lecture Attendees “snowflakes”.

    These are shaming tactics that don’t sufficiently pass the smell test to even have any effect.

    ” No, You’re a towel!”

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    I don't think mountain climbers are soyboys, nor do I think Ann Coulter Berkeley Lecture Attendees are snowflakes.

    In contrast, I think the people in idiocracy saying 'you talk like a f**' provide an accurate representation of some of the commenters here.

  102. @Alexander Turok
    Morons gonna moron, I just wish you'd stay in California and enjoy your high housing costs and stop bringing that crap into my state.

    I just wish you’d stay in California

    Huh? I don’t live in California.

  103. @Achmed E. Newman

    It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs, notwithstanding the sardine-like manner in which airlines transport us and the ample opportunity that the industry’s bureaucracy offers for contact tracing.
     
    See, I told you so, Steve! (You called the after-ski parties very well, I think responding to me on that one first.) For cryin' out loud, people, there ARE air changes on the airliners. What it really is though, is that people do sit together, but they hardly talk as they did 25 or even 10 years back. There's entertainment often on the seat back, and on almost all passengers' tablets and phones.

    The guy did call the ability to trace passengers very well, which a consequence of the TSA - people are supposed to sit where the gate agent finalized their seat when the flight is "closed-out" (which also matters for weight/balance on the smaller birds.) On some of the longer flights especially, or just when families want to consolidate, maybe 5% of them move to different seats. One time, on a 12-hour flight going to the Orient, whenever I had to pee, the Chinese guy on the aisle would get up and take my seat, then I'd sit on the aisle till he had to get up to pee, for probably 3 cycles.

    Perhaps the author just meant tracing people on same flights, and I'm going overboard thinking about this. Definitely, this information is very accurate. Having stowaways is almost a thing of the past.

    It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs …

    This is because jetliner cabins filter air through ‘true HEPA’ filters that remove dust, allergens and microbes (‘microbes’ includes viruses and bacteria) from the air recirculated into the cabin and cockpit.

    True HEPA filters (>99.999% microbial removal efficiency)

    The anticipation of winter 2020-21 will likely produce fear of enclosed spaces for those living in the northern latitudes.

    As a result, this autumn we may be seeing ‘true HEPA’ air filters/humidifier combination units for office buildings and upscale homes.

    https://shop.pall.com/us/en/aerospace/commercial-fixed-wing/electronics-cooling-filtration

    • Replies: @Mehen
    My understanding is that virii are not “microbes”. Virii are far smaller.
  104. @MikeatMikedotMike
    Hi Moshe,

    I am pissed because Steve refused to even acknowledge any of the pertinent issues of these lock downs that don't directly affect him. For example, he celebrates the fact that Ventura County has reopened golf courses, which is you know, great for old men who like to golf and not getting too close to other people, but meanwhile, my 12 and 16 year old daughters are having the entirety of their lives placed into a virtual solitary confinement. Both do very well in school and enjoy it. Both are heavily involved in extracurriculars. My 16 year old has/had a job. Now they have been isolated from all of that while the full force of the corona cult attempts to brainwash them into celebrating this police state we've been forced into. Never mind the the unknown negative consequences of forcing people to hide out indoors and removing all real and intimate social contact. It's unnatural and the costs are impossible to know long tern. Sailer won't even pay lip service to any of these concerns.

    Also, we are a working class family - so we know lots and lots of people who are out of work indefinitely because of this - people with mortgages and children of their own. People in retail, food service, peripheral health care, etc all on UI for the first time in their lives. Fuck it Dude, let's go bowling; I mean, golfing.

    Hopefully this answers your question - and addresses Lars Porsena's concerns as well (and his reply to that troll was hilarious and spot on.) To the others - thanks for your input.

    I must also again mention that because I dared to disagree with Ron Unz in a James Thompson article about this corona bullshit he has restricted my commenting ability to 1 comment per day. Sailer, being a obsessive comment control freak himself, no doubt approves.

    I must also again mention that because I dared to disagree with Ron Unz in a James Thompson article about this corona bullshit he has restricted my commenting ability to 1 comment per day.

    “Support free thought and free speech”

    –Unz Review

  105. @moshe
    I know plenty of people diagnosed with Covid. Heck, my own brother and his kids had/have it and my sister in law's grandfather died from it.

    But.

    Of the 17 or so people whom I know that had it, the only 2 deaths were of of people who were around 90 and were already quite ill before they caught Covid.

    All of the others felt a little shvach (slightly weak and inease) and some lost their sense of smell for a few weeks but none required hospitalization or even the sick bed. Including the 65 year olds.

    Look. Thank God (an expression of gratitude that has no secular equivalent I know of or I might prefer it) illness and sickness have almost vanished from most parts of the world. At least for the vast vast majority of non-hypochondriacs born after 1950.

    That's pretty F'n good.

    So I don't begrudge people who don't wish to accept Covid as an unavoidable plague sent by a wrathful God/Planet that only the weak refuse to proudly die from.

    I like them and thank god for them.

    They have given me an extraordinarily healthy and happy life so far and their worries and concerns and angry refusal to accept illness and death as natural are likely to grant me increasingly more years of the same.

    That doesn't mean that I need to catch the mental illness of their exaggerated fears any more than I need to vote in order to benefit from the pleasures of Democracy.

    Public shaming is a natural way for society to keep there from being too many others who think rationally about it as well. It's religious in nature and practice and that's cool with me. I can like religion without being relivious myself. I can prefer that ~80% of young and seemingly healthy people wear masks while sneering at their womanly fearfulness and happily living the good life mask-free.

    Eschewing "The Mask" may soon become the armband sign of rebellion.

    The single most blatant characteristic of President Trump (I can't get over how much fun it is to say that :) ) is that he lacks a sense of shame. It's an absolute marvel to behold.

    I'm nowhere close to his level but I can't help but be proud of the fact that I like to park in handicapped spaces (while handicapped people make handicapped faces [inside joke]) and to laugh at people to fearful to do so even when it's evident that it far more available than can be necessary for any handicapped people who may show up.

    Unwarranted womanish fear and submission to societal or dictatorial rule and rules is the point at hand. I stand behind no one in my admiration for the great Mahatma Gandhi.

    At the same time - Thank God for the natural female impulses that forced Mankind into such a beatific society as the one we are so fortunate to live in!

    I’m nowhere close to his level but I can’t help but be proud of the fact that I like to park in handicapped spaces (while handicapped people make handicapped faces [inside joke])

    Either explain your statement or be forever known as a shitbag.

    Sorry, personal peeve of mine.

  106. @DevOps Dad
    It’s similarly notable that airplanes don’t seem to be common sites for known SSEs ...

    This is because jetliner cabins filter air through 'true HEPA' filters that remove dust, allergens and microbes ('microbes' includes viruses and bacteria) from the air recirculated into the cabin and cockpit.

    True HEPA filters (>99.999% microbial removal efficiency)

    The anticipation of winter 2020-21 will likely produce fear of enclosed spaces for those living in the northern latitudes.

    As a result, this autumn we may be seeing 'true HEPA' air filters/humidifier combination units for office buildings and upscale homes.

    https://shop.pall.com/us/en/aerospace/commercial-fixed-wing/electronics-cooling-filtration

    My understanding is that virii are not “microbes”. Virii are far smaller.

    • Replies: @DevOps Dad
    As far as the application of these filters 'microbes' includes viruses and bacteria.

    See link below:

    https://shop.pall.com/us/en/aerospace/commercial-fixed-wing/cabin-air-filtration/zidgxiyphgy?CategoryName=AD102&CatalogID=Aerospace-Defense-Marine&tracking=se

    ... cabin air filters remove dust, allergens and microbes ('microbes' includes viruses and bacteria) from the air recirculated into the cabin and cockpit.
  107. @moshe
    You are posting clips from Idiocracy that have as much bearing on your arguments as calling mountain climbers "soyboys" and Ann Coulter Berkeley Lecture Attendees "snowflakes".

    These are shaming tactics that don't sufficiently pass the smell test to even have any effect.

    " No, You're a towel!"


    https://youtu.be/Bvi0JSYUv_w

    I don’t think mountain climbers are soyboys, nor do I think Ann Coulter Berkeley Lecture Attendees are snowflakes.

    In contrast, I think the people in idiocracy saying ‘you talk like a f**’ provide an accurate representation of some of the commenters here.

    • Replies: @moshe
    Let me put it plainly.


    Nobody who died of Coronavirus had 2 years left to live

    Also: Between 5% and 30% of those who are listed as having died from Coronavirus actually died from the effects of the Coronavirus Panic.

    I could expound upon this but it would be a wasted effort.

    Mathew 7:6

    P.S. I wish there were a method of contacting commentors privately. I find phone conversations more productive.

  108. @Alexander Turok
    I don't think mountain climbers are soyboys, nor do I think Ann Coulter Berkeley Lecture Attendees are snowflakes.

    In contrast, I think the people in idiocracy saying 'you talk like a f**' provide an accurate representation of some of the commenters here.

    Let me put it plainly.

    Nobody who died of Coronavirus had 2 years left to live

    Also: Between 5% and 30% of those who are listed as having died from Coronavirus actually died from the effects of the Coronavirus Panic.

    I could expound upon this but it would be a wasted effort.

    Mathew 7:6

    P.S. I wish there were a method of contacting commentors privately. I find phone conversations more productive.

  109. But you do talk like a fag.

    😉

    ============================
    ============================

    [Of course if you’re elderly and/or ill I understand your exaggerated concern. But don’t worry my friend, I promise you that the coronavirus is only dangerous if you fear it. As President Hoover said (that’s not a joke), we have nothing to fear but fear itself.

  110. @Mehen
    My understanding is that virii are not “microbes”. Virii are far smaller.

    As far as the application of these filters ‘microbes’ includes viruses and bacteria.

    See link below:

    https://shop.pall.com/us/en/aerospace/commercial-fixed-wing/cabin-air-filtration/zidgxiyphgy?CategoryName=AD102&CatalogID=Aerospace-Defense-Marine&tracking=se

    … cabin air filters remove dust, allergens and microbes (‘microbes’ includes viruses and bacteria) from the air recirculated into the cabin and cockpit.

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