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Phase 1 Safety Trial for a Vaccine Begins Monday
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From the Associated Press today:

Government official: Coronavirus vaccine trial starts Monday
By ZEKE MILLER
an hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The first participant in a clinical trial for a vaccine to protect against the new coronavirus will receive an experimental dose on Monday, according to a government official.

The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. The official who disclosed plans for the first participant spoke on condition of anonymity because the move has not been publicly announced.

Public health officials say it will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

Testing will begin with 45 young, healthy volunteers with different doses of shots co-developed by NIH and Moderna Inc. There’s no chance participants could get infected from the shots, because they don’t contain the virus itself. The goal is purely to check that the vaccines show no worrisome side effects, setting the stage for larger tests.

Dozens of research groups around the world are racing to create a vaccine as COVID-19 cases continue to grow. Importantly, they’re pursuing different types of vaccines — shots developed from new technologies that not only are faster to produce than traditional inoculations but might prove more potent. Some researchers even aim for temporary vaccines, such as shots that might guard people’s health a month or two at a time while longer-lasting protection is developed. …

There are a whole bunch of different ways to come up with a vaccine, so trying them all makes sense.

Even if initial safety tests go well, “you’re talking about a year to a year and a half” before any vaccine could be ready for widespread use, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

From the KOMO in Seattle on March 5th:

Kaiser Permanente recruits volunteers for 1st coronavirus vaccine trials
by Karina Mazhukhina | KOMO News Thursday, March 5th 2020
AA

SEATTLE – As Washington state grapples with coronavirus, one Seattle research institute is taking matters into their own hands.

Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute got the OK to begin its vaccine trials, the first of its kind. Its research team is enrolling 45 healthy people, ages 18 to 55, from the Seattle-area over the course of 14 months.

“[The trial] does not include any form of the live virus, and the trial will not expose participants to the virus,” said Rebecca Hughes, senior media consultant with Kaiser Permanente.

The trial is part one of three-phases that will study the safety of the vaccine and how well the immune system responds to it. …

Participants will receive $100 for each of the in-person study visits. People who complete every visit will get $1,100.

So it apparently took about 11 days between the public announcement of recruitment of volunteers and the beginning of the tests. One question would be whether higher compensation could cut, say, a week from that process in the future? Was recruitment immediate or did it take a week or more to find enough volunteers?

This isn’t a time to penny-pinch on paying volunteers.

 
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  1. Why not just give it to any very sick, elderly person who wants it? If you are 87 and very ill why not try it?

    • Replies: @Hypnotoad666
    @Western

    The old and sick may be most at risk for the coronavirus, but I assume they would also be most at risk for the side effects of a vaccine. So, it's a technical tradeoff question that the researchers would have to weigh based on the estimated mortality of the virus vs. an experimental vaccine.

    (Also, while trying to measure the safety and efficacy of a proposed vaccine they would presumably want to test it on subjects representing a reasonable cross-section of age and health conditions.)

    Notwithstanding the math, however, there is normally a strong institutional bias toward letting people die from lack of treatment vs. killing them with an imperfect vaccine.

    Some of this bias comes from legal liability concerns, and some of it comes from political concerns. And some of it comes from the normal human impulse to assign more moral blame to one who actively causes harm rather than one who passively fails to prevent it.

    Hopefully, a mechanism can be put into place to override all these biases and just make the vaccine approval decision according to a cold-blooded cost/benefit assessment.

  2. I do some work with pharma companies, and lots of folks wonder why it takes so long to get an effective vaccine.

    First you have to figure out what specific biological form that active ingredient the vaccine should take.

    Second you have to figure out what excipients should be used so the active ingredient remains active through a manufacturing and distribution process.

    Third, you have to figure out the range of dosages you have to test.

    Fourth, you have to test those range of dosages across a N number the accurately reflects the demography of your patient pool. This first test is not to test effectiveness but to test for side effects as as well as potency. As part of this phase, if there are side effects, you have to make a decision whether those side effects are worth it. Not easy.

    Fifth, you need to do a double blind with a sufficient N across the demography reflecting your patient pool to see if the vaccine is in fact preventative.

    Time and money. Typically lots of both.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Is there any way some of these steps can be done in parallel, so that many paths are explored at once?

    E.g., try various biological forms, try various excipients on each of them simultaneously, try simultaneously various dosages for these many forms,and excipients.

    Sure, it's a lot more expensive since only one path will ultimately be chosen, but money should be no object.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    , @Sideshow Bob
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Double blind placebo tests are never done for vaccines. Instead of using an inert placebo they test against just the adjuvants or against a currently used vaccine. We don't actually know what the casualty rate is for any given vaccine due to side effects.

    There has been a rapid increase in the occurrence of autoimmune diseases that correlates with the rapid increase in volume of immune system hacking vaccines. It would be good to know if we were trading the prevention of what for most people are unlikely (e.g. Tetanus) or nuisance (e.g. childhood Varicella) for lifelong chronic illnesses.

  3. According to NPR, genetically engineered mice are being pressed into service as well. The absolute best part of the article, however, is to learn that a woman named “Cat Lutz” is in charge of the Mouse Repository.

    I bet when she’s away . . . oh, never mind.

    In order to test and ensure that vaccines are safe and effective, researchers typically conduct experiments on animals, usually mice. Though some labs are experimenting with ferrets and monkeys for this virus, mice are cheap and plentiful.

    But researchers can’t use ordinary mice. That’s because the coronavirus doesn’t make mice sick. Humans have to genetically engineer them to be susceptible to the virus. But it seems there are no such mice to be found.

    The problem is that the genetically altered mice that researchers need have been on ice for the past few years, says Cat Lutz, senior director of the Jackson Laboratory Mouse Repository in Bar Harbor, Maine

    .

    https://www.npr.org/2020/03/14/815624878/mouse-hunt-lab-races-to-grow-mice-for-covid-19-research

    • Replies: @Dissident
    @Hypnotoad666


    The absolute best part of the article, however, is to learn that a woman named “Cat Lutz” is in charge of the Mouse Repository.
     
    Reminds me of that story from a little while back featuring a proud Lesbian named "Cat Packer".
  4. Anonymous[312] • Disclaimer says:

    Corona viruses have been around forever yet there aren’t any corona virus vaccines.

    A zillion dollars awaits the inventor of an effective corona virus vaccine (corona viruses cause the common cold) yet it has never happened.

    It would require a quantum leap in medicine to develop a corona vaccine that actually works and is not a stunt.

    The motivations behind rolling out what will be a guaranteed ineffective vaccine are dark.

    • Agree: nickels, LondonBob
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Anonymous


    Corona viruses have been around forever
     
    Citation needed.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    , @Aardvark
    @Anonymous

    So, do we watch the same movie again?
    The clinical trials will show the vaccine doesn't work.
    They will single source fake data that says it does work.
    A few years in to mass inoculating everyone they can get their hands on, the CDC will be forced to admin it ins't effective at all, but you should get it anyway (sound familiar - like Flu vaccine?).
    The wreckage caused by a hastily made non-functioning vaccine will be swept under the rug.

    , @HA
    @Anonymous

    "Corona viruses have been around forever yet there aren’t any corona virus vaccines."

    That's not true. If you're a camel/alpaca, there's at least this (though it's not a silver bullet by any stretch):
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d42473-018-00392-7

    Or else, if you're a cow:
    https://www.nbc15.com/content/news/Rock-Co-dairy-farmers-use-vaccine-to-prevent-bovine-coronavirus--568783911.html

    Also, note that one of the reasons it's so hard to find a vaccine is because the coronavirus is so mutable. But that in turn makes it more likely that the virus will mutate into some less deadly form (as may have happened with the Spanish flu). Viruses that become deadly and virulent enough to make headline are stepping out on a limb, evolution-wise, because that attention makes medical personnel and even common folk more vigilant to its progression, and makes it more likely for the infected to be quarantined before they can infect others.

    For example, SARS hasn't infected anyone in over a decade. That's one of the main reasons it has been difficult to marshall the resources and funding required to create a vaccine.

    , @Ripple Earthdevil
    @Anonymous

    Coronaviruses cause something like 25% of common colds. IIRC there are something like 200 known viruses that do so.

  5. I say this is one time we should allow immigrants to do the jobs that Americans just won’t do.

    Or, why not see if there’s anybody in prison that wants a few years reduced from a sentence?

  6. Anonymous[312] • Disclaimer says:

    This is a rapidly mutating RNA virus. Evidence of benign behavior emerging…

    Are there now very mild strains out there? Is it the humidity issue? Is it simply good hygiene? Is it the Purell?

    —-CPAC conference supposed super spreader … didn’t infect anyone!?

    —-Argentine & Brazilian Mar-a-Lago visitors failed to spread the virus also?

    —-Diamond Princess spouses went uninfected after long term sharing of small cabins

    —-Grand Princess cruise shaping up as non-disaster: 1 death out of 2700 passengers

    I’ve read that CPAC had Purell stations everywhere. I’ve read that Trump World are Purell maniacs.

    All in all I don’t see how the St Patty partiers can be blamed. They’re not the target demo. And this thing doesn’t exactly spread like measles outside of dysfunctional countries and nursing homes etc. Or maybe it spreads like crazy but it’s so mild the infected don’t even realize they have it.

  7. Anonymous[268] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Corona viruses have been around forever yet there aren't any corona virus vaccines.

    A zillion dollars awaits the inventor of an effective corona virus vaccine (corona viruses cause the common cold) yet it has never happened.

    It would require a quantum leap in medicine to develop a corona vaccine that actually works and is not a stunt.

    The motivations behind rolling out what will be a guaranteed ineffective vaccine are dark.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Aardvark, @HA, @Ripple Earthdevil

    Corona viruses have been around forever

    Citation needed.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Anonymous

    Review from 1995: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7761711

    "Viral upper respiratory infections, otherwise known as the common cold, are the most common diseases among humans. The self-limited, and often self-diagnosed, acute mild catarrhal illness is usually a nasopharyngitis of 5 to 7 days duration. The major virus groups causing colds are the Picornaviridae, Coronaviridae, Paramyxoviridae, Orthomyxoviridae, and Adenoviridae families."

  8. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    I do some work with pharma companies, and lots of folks wonder why it takes so long to get an effective vaccine.

    First you have to figure out what specific biological form that active ingredient the vaccine should take.

    Second you have to figure out what excipients should be used so the active ingredient remains active through a manufacturing and distribution process.

    Third, you have to figure out the range of dosages you have to test.

    Fourth, you have to test those range of dosages across a N number the accurately reflects the demography of your patient pool. This first test is not to test effectiveness but to test for side effects as as well as potency. As part of this phase, if there are side effects, you have to make a decision whether those side effects are worth it. Not easy.

    Fifth, you need to do a double blind with a sufficient N across the demography reflecting your patient pool to see if the vaccine is in fact preventative.

    Time and money. Typically lots of both.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @Sideshow Bob

    Is there any way some of these steps can be done in parallel, so that many paths are explored at once?

    E.g., try various biological forms, try various excipients on each of them simultaneously, try simultaneously various dosages for these many forms,and excipients.

    Sure, it’s a lot more expensive since only one path will ultimately be chosen, but money should be no object.

    • Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @candid_observer

    @candid_observer

    You can do lots of parallel vaccine OPTIONS -- the only thing that that takes is more money and testing resources -- but it's very hard to compress the time line.

    You would think -- "Hey, this antibody we just concocted in the lab and tested in a bunch of ex vivo environments really disrupts the virus' lipid layer -- woo hoo, let's make a bunch of it at scale, put it in vials, and have the nurse practitioers inject 300 milliion people -- and pandemic solved.!!"

    But that's a recipe for ultimate ineffectiveness...or worse, catastrophe. While nature is parsimonious, it is also very complex and stuff happens in the immune system that we are only beginning to understand.

    A lot of folks recall their high school biology and think, "Cowpox provides immunity against smallpox..how hard would it be to find the cowpox for Covid-19?" Well, it's really hard. That's why the flu shot you might get for this season is only partially effective because the world of viruses is evolution at light speed. And because vaccines take time to make and verify, you always seem to be fighting the last war.

    Covid-19 is an RNA virus, which means it's relatively simple and mutations for the time being shouldn't invalidate an effective vaccine. But maybe at some point.

    Of all the sub species of medicine/biology, immunology is really a huge frontier we have yet to fully exploit. If anyone out there has kids interested in biology or medicine, I would urge them to go into immunology. There's gold in them there hills, and for a lucky few, some Nobel Prizes.

    We are just starting -- recent immunological approaches against cancer, like CAR-T, are tremendously exciting, yet still in their infancy. I bet Alzheimers given the recent findings is a viral generated syndrome. The landscape is positively replete with possibilities.

    Replies: @candid_observer

  9. @Western
    Why not just give it to any very sick, elderly person who wants it? If you are 87 and very ill why not try it?

    Replies: @Hypnotoad666

    The old and sick may be most at risk for the coronavirus, but I assume they would also be most at risk for the side effects of a vaccine. So, it’s a technical tradeoff question that the researchers would have to weigh based on the estimated mortality of the virus vs. an experimental vaccine.

    (Also, while trying to measure the safety and efficacy of a proposed vaccine they would presumably want to test it on subjects representing a reasonable cross-section of age and health conditions.)

    Notwithstanding the math, however, there is normally a strong institutional bias toward letting people die from lack of treatment vs. killing them with an imperfect vaccine.

    Some of this bias comes from legal liability concerns, and some of it comes from political concerns. And some of it comes from the normal human impulse to assign more moral blame to one who actively causes harm rather than one who passively fails to prevent it.

    Hopefully, a mechanism can be put into place to override all these biases and just make the vaccine approval decision according to a cold-blooded cost/benefit assessment.

    • Agree: ic1000
  10. (((NWO))) trial balloon just went up in Champaign, IL:

    Illinois Mayor Grants Herself Power To Ban Gun Sales And Alcohol During Coronavirus Epidemic

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/illinois-mayor-grants-herself-power-ban-gun-sales-and-alcohol-during-coronavirus-epidemic

    Unsurprisingly, the mayor is a hideous (((AWFUL))).

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    It's a college town. Enough said.

  11. Was recruitment immediate or did it take a week or more to find enough volunteers?

    I thought any illegal in the country was implicitly giving consent for whatever experiments we need to run? Why “inform” them each time?

  12. This isn’t a time to penny-pinch on paying volunteers.

    I understand your point, but 45 volunteers at $1,100 per ($100/visit x 11 visits) totals $49,500. There will be additional trials I am sure, and payments could easily reach into seven figures with no guarantee of payback.

    As an aside, you’re doing a remarkable job of bringing the latest, most relevant information to the forefront. Kudos, etc.

    • Agree: Dieter Kief
  13. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    Don’t get your hopes high. Moderna’s is an mRNA approach. It’s likely to be very safe but very unlikely to work. If making effective vaccines were as easy as injecting a single pathogen surface protein, making vaccines would be trivial. But the reality is that it’s not – single protein approach is rarely effective. mRNA does nothing to solve this fundamental difficulty.

    In the short term, a far better bet is Gilead’s antiviral, remdesivir. Several clinical trials of it are already ongoing.

    A safe and effective vaccine? Wait a year or two.

    • Replies: @Pegasus
    @Anonymous

    You seem to know what you are talking about. Any hints about why this class of broad spectrum antivirals - the equivalent of penicillin for viruses - did not get any funding nor any mention years after being proven to work in lab mice?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

    Not to get too conspiratorial, but why would someone deface the wikipedia article, in which the name of the inventor disappeared and also it is claimed that the drugs were working in vitro against few viruses. Anyone who has read the paper knows that DRACO was safe and worked against different types of viruses in vivo, which means the compound was administered to mice and cleared diverse viral infections without hurting the animals. Maybe the difference is trivial to the casual reader, but claiming something works and it is safe in vivo vs only in vitro makes a world of difference in drugs research.

    See the red text in the following pic

    https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.129/f5o.aea.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/DRACOb-scaled.jpg

    Compare it to the dodgy wiki article

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

    https://riderinstitute.org/discovery/

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Jack D

    , @Anon
    @Anonymous

    To be more specific, none of the vaccines we currently use are RNA-based. FDA went put of its way to make easy for Moderna to get approval for a Zika vaccine. But there is zero chance they will ever work.

    More money to the Synagogue - Ivy League - FDA complex, in a country where most big cities ran out of toilet paper and hospital masks.

    Replies: @Anonymous

  14. Anonymous[386] • Disclaimer says:

    I had no idea Sailer was this powerful. He’s like shadow emperor, and his emissary Tucker informed Trumpet of the decree.

    He calls for zero tolerance war on Corona, and next week, my local library is closed for two weeks. There is WWTP raging all over America. Whole nation is shutting down and going on war footing.

    • Replies: @Spangel
    @Anonymous

    If only sailer were that powerful. We should be so lucky.

  15. Donald Trump ‘offers to pay German company creating experimental coronavirus vaccine to move to the US and make it exclusively for Americans’
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8114015/Donald-Trump-tries-pay-German-company-creating-experimental-coronavirus-vaccine-US.html

    Then-CureVac CEO Daniel Menichella met Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force and senior representatives of pharmaceutical and biotech companies to discuss a vaccine at the White House on March 2.

    Menichella, who became CEO in May 2018, was abruptly replaced by board chairman Ingmar Hoerr just nine days after his DC meeting with Trump and drugmakers.

    Germany tries to stop US from luring away firm seeking coronavirus vaccine
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-germany-tries-to-stop-us-luring-away-firm-seeking-vaccine.html

    Berlin is trying to stop Washington from persuading a German company seeking a coronavirus vaccine to move its research to the United States, prompting German politicians to insist no country should have a monopoly on any future vaccine.

    Earlier, the Welt am Sonntag German newspaper reported that U.S. President Donald Trump had offered funds to lure CureVac to the United States, and the German government was making counter-offers to tempt it to stay.

    Responding to the report, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, wrote on Twitter: “The Welt story was wrong.”

    Welt am Sonntag quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists’ work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, “but only for the United States.”

    • Replies: @Anon
    @utu

    The NYT on this here:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/world/europe/cornonavirus-vaccine-us-germany.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    It sounds to me that Trump made an offhand hail-fellow-well-met jokey comment to the German guy during a photo op, and this somehow took off as an orange-man-bad industrial espionage fever dream story in the hands of the Trump-hating media and German government.

    , @Dieter Kief
    @utu

    Dietmar Hopp, co-founder of the sofware-company SAP is invested in bio-medical firms and in the Tübingen based CureVac too. He said there was an offer by Trump to take over CureVac, but they've turned it down. The former CEO Daniel Menichella, who did talk to Trump about a vaccine in the White House, is gone though.

  16. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    @Anonymous


    Corona viruses have been around forever
     
    Citation needed.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Review from 1995: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7761711

    “Viral upper respiratory infections, otherwise known as the common cold, are the most common diseases among humans. The self-limited, and often self-diagnosed, acute mild catarrhal illness is usually a nasopharyngitis of 5 to 7 days duration. The major virus groups causing colds are the Picornaviridae, Coronaviridae, Paramyxoviridae, Orthomyxoviridae, and Adenoviridae families.”

  17. Anon[141] • Disclaimer says:

    It will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

    There’s no chance participants could get infected from the shots.

    The goal is purely to check that the vaccines show no worrisome side effects.

    Who cares if there are “worrisome side effects”? What kind of side effects could there be?

    From Vaccines.gov:

    What are common side effects of vaccines?

    The most common side effects after vaccination are mild. They include:

    Pain, swelling, or redness where the shot was given
    Mild fever
    Chills
    Feeling tired
    Headache
    Muscle and joint aches

    How about serious side effects?

    Serious side effects from vaccines are extremely rare. For example, if 1 million doses of a vaccine are given, 1 to 2 people may have a severe allergic reaction.

    Two people maybe die out of a million? That’s the risk rate of driving to the supermarket.

    Of course, this is from vaccines that have gone through “testing and validation,” but lets say that without such testing 200 out of a million die. Is my math right? Is that only 1/5 of a percent? Bring it on!

    And destroying the national economy by shutting down for a year is not going to be really great for morbitity and mortality.

    This seems like another case of overregulation designed for situations not like the present, the same as with the testing hurdles.

    Lower the acceptable risk thresholds, pay people a lot to participate in testing, and/or let any volunteer become a guinea pig get the test vaccines in their various dosages. Then release it and tweek it as more becomes known.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
    @Anon


    Who cares if there are “worrisome side effects”? What kind of side effects could there be?
     
    Flippers?
    , @Jack D
    @Anon

    When they were trying to create a vaccine for SARS (they never did - the funding disappeared when the disease died off) they found that some of the test vaccines had a paradoxical effect in the animal trials - instead of making the disease more mild, it made it worse. This may be because the real danger from Chinese bat soup flu (we should call it that from now on because China and the WHO are busy retconning history) in some individuals comes not from the disease itself but as collateral damage from your immune response.

    Now that it is become clear that the entire world economy has been crashed as a result of Chinese (un)sanitary habits, we should especially not be playing this "no one is to blame - let's not associate this disease with any particular race" game. This is part of the war on noticing.

    , @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @Anon

    Remember, we're talking about side effects from Vaccines that have been VALIDATED.

    If you want to be a guinea pig for a POTENTIAL vaccine that hasn't been adequately tested, be my guest.

    Make sure you're all set so that if your immunological system generates a cytokine storm, your heirs are ready.

  18. Coronavirus: UK panic buying continues despite government call to stop
    https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=awArO_1584274880

    After viewing the video BoJo may not have other policy options.

  19. does it seem to you that this fauci character in enjoying his time in the limelight a bit too much.

    His dire warnings are going to drag the us into an unprecedented depression with 100 million unemployed. anyone not sitting on a pile of cash in the bank or having a cushy govt job with a guaranteed paycheck every two weeks will be bankrupt in a month

    • Replies: @Western
    @jesse helms think-alike

    The guy is 79 and still working. He certainly likes his job.

    This video is interesting.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=yn074EB5NNY&feature=emb_logo


    How come so many of these types of people never retire? We have so many politicians in their 70's too.

  20. This isn’t a time to penny-pinch on paying volunteers.

    Offer a lifetime supply of bottled water and toilet paper.

  21. @jesse helms think-alike
    does it seem to you that this fauci character in enjoying his time in the limelight a bit too much.

    His dire warnings are going to drag the us into an unprecedented depression with 100 million unemployed. anyone not sitting on a pile of cash in the bank or having a cushy govt job with a guaranteed paycheck every two weeks will be bankrupt in a month

    Replies: @Western

    The guy is 79 and still working. He certainly likes his job.

    This video is interesting.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=yn074EB5NNY&feature=emb_logo

    How come so many of these types of people never retire? We have so many politicians in their 70’s too.

  22. Anon[141] • Disclaimer says:

    Via Ryan Girdusky’s excellent National Populist Newsletter, another vaccine (and an Israeli vaccine is also mentioned):

    We’ve Got The Vaccine, Says Pentagon-Funded Company
    https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/breaking-weve-got-vaccine-says-pentagon-funded-company/163739/

    A Canadian company says that it has produced a COVID-19 vaccine just 20 days after receiving the coronavirus’s genetic sequence.

    DARPA funded it to develop fast vaccine techniques. Twenty days to vaccine, then quickly 10 million doses per month. Except, FDA …

    In 2010, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, put together a $100 million program dubbed Blue Angel to look into new forms of vaccine discovery and production. A big chunk of that money went to Medicago to build a facility in North Carolina, where they showed that they could find a vaccine in just 20 days, then rapidly scale up production.

    Clark says that once they get the green light, they will be able to produce 10 million vaccine doses a month.

    And it’s vegan!

    How did Clark’s team create one so quickly? They use plants, not chicken eggs, as a bioreactor for growing vaccine proteins.

    Traditional vaccine production requires eggs, a lot of them. Vaccine manufacturers inject the virus into the eggs, where it propagates. But using eggs is expensive, takes a long time, and is far from perfect. Mutations can yield vaccines that don’t match up to the virus they aim to shut down, Clark said

    So Medicago doesn’t work with a live virus. Instead, it uses plants, a relatively new approach that has seen much advancement in the past decade. It inserts a genetic sequence into agrobacterium, a soil bacteria, which is taken up by plants — in this case, a close cousin to tobacco. The plant begins to produce the protein that can then be used as a vaccine. If the virus begins to mutate, as is expected for COVID-19, they can just update the production using new plants.

    He said the only obstacles at this point are regulatory. The company’s technique isn’t yet FDA-approved and would need to go through clinical trials.

    “Our basic plan is to be in human studies, phase one, by the July time frame; and then, it would depend, quite extensively, on the decisions the regulators make in terms of the hurdles they want us to have in the normal course of development,” he said.

    Clark says that he understands that cutting corners in drug development invites risk. But, he says, “There’s a lot of room for negotiation with the regulators. I won’t put words in their mouths…I will say our intention, taking a very standard approach, is that by November [of 2021] we will have completed phase III,” in clinical trials — allowing the vaccine to be made widely available to the public.

    https://ryangirdusky.com/newsletter/

  23. Anon[141] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    Donald Trump 'offers to pay German company creating experimental coronavirus vaccine to move to the US and make it exclusively for Americans'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8114015/Donald-Trump-tries-pay-German-company-creating-experimental-coronavirus-vaccine-US.html

    Then-CureVac CEO Daniel Menichella met Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force and senior representatives of pharmaceutical and biotech companies to discuss a vaccine at the White House on March 2.

    Menichella, who became CEO in May 2018, was abruptly replaced by board chairman Ingmar Hoerr just nine days after his DC meeting with Trump and drugmakers.
     

    Germany tries to stop US from luring away firm seeking coronavirus vaccine
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-germany-tries-to-stop-us-luring-away-firm-seeking-vaccine.html

    Berlin is trying to stop Washington from persuading a German company seeking a coronavirus vaccine to move its research to the United States, prompting German politicians to insist no country should have a monopoly on any future vaccine.

    Earlier, the Welt am Sonntag German newspaper reported that U.S. President Donald Trump had offered funds to lure CureVac to the United States, and the German government was making counter-offers to tempt it to stay.

    Responding to the report, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, wrote on Twitter: “The Welt story was wrong.”

    Welt am Sonntag quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists’ work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, “but only for the United States.”
     

    Replies: @Anon, @Dieter Kief

    The NYT on this here:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/world/europe/cornonavirus-vaccine-us-germany.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    It sounds to me that Trump made an offhand hail-fellow-well-met jokey comment to the German guy during a photo op, and this somehow took off as an orange-man-bad industrial espionage fever dream story in the hands of the Trump-hating media and German government.

    • Agree: snorlax
  24. I’m really worried. It’s obvious that we are very near a stock market crash. This thing is about to go off the cliff very quickly.

    Where are you guys putting your money now? What do you think we should do? Any advice from savy investors and market watchers on here?

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Market crashed already, this is beyond market crash territory.

    , @The Wild Geese Howard
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning. I'd wait a day or two to see how far it drops, then look for cheaper bullion on eBay.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Reg Cæsar

  25. @Anon

    It will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

    There’s no chance participants could get infected from the shots.

    The goal is purely to check that the vaccines show no worrisome side effects.
     

    Who cares if there are "worrisome side effects"? What kind of side effects could there be?

    From Vaccines.gov:


    What are common side effects of vaccines?

    The most common side effects after vaccination are mild. They include:

    Pain, swelling, or redness where the shot was given
    Mild fever
    Chills
    Feeling tired
    Headache
    Muscle and joint aches
     

    How about serious side effects?

    Serious side effects from vaccines are extremely rare. For example, if 1 million doses of a vaccine are given, 1 to 2 people may have a severe allergic reaction.
     
    Two people maybe die out of a million? That's the risk rate of driving to the supermarket.

    Of course, this is from vaccines that have gone through "testing and validation," but lets say that without such testing 200 out of a million die. Is my math right? Is that only 1/5 of a percent? Bring it on!

    And destroying the national economy by shutting down for a year is not going to be really great for morbitity and mortality.

    This seems like another case of overregulation designed for situations not like the present, the same as with the testing hurdles.

    Lower the acceptable risk thresholds, pay people a lot to participate in testing, and/or let any volunteer become a guinea pig get the test vaccines in their various dosages. Then release it and tweek it as more becomes known.

    Replies: @James Speaks, @Jack D, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Who cares if there are “worrisome side effects”? What kind of side effects could there be?

    Flippers?

  26. @Anonymous
    Don't get your hopes high. Moderna's is an mRNA approach. It's likely to be very safe but very unlikely to work. If making effective vaccines were as easy as injecting a single pathogen surface protein, making vaccines would be trivial. But the reality is that it's not - single protein approach is rarely effective. mRNA does nothing to solve this fundamental difficulty.

    In the short term, a far better bet is Gilead's antiviral, remdesivir. Several clinical trials of it are already ongoing.

    A safe and effective vaccine? Wait a year or two.

    Replies: @Pegasus, @Anon

    You seem to know what you are talking about. Any hints about why this class of broad spectrum antivirals – the equivalent of penicillin for viruses – did not get any funding nor any mention years after being proven to work in lab mice?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

    Not to get too conspiratorial, but why would someone deface the wikipedia article, in which the name of the inventor disappeared and also it is claimed that the drugs were working in vitro against few viruses. Anyone who has read the paper knows that DRACO was safe and worked against different types of viruses in vivo, which means the compound was administered to mice and cleared diverse viral infections without hurting the animals. Maybe the difference is trivial to the casual reader, but claiming something works and it is safe in vivo vs only in vitro makes a world of difference in drugs research.

    See the red text in the following pic

    Compare it to the dodgy wiki article

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

    https://riderinstitute.org/discovery/

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Pegasus

    I don't know. Never heard about it. I'll have to read about it and try to understand what's stopping it. On the surface of it, does sound too good to be true. And Tom Rider's personality might be a factor: "How German-Speaking Scientists and Engineers Invented The Modern World And What We Can Learn From Them"

    , @Jack D
    @Pegasus

    I am always very skeptical of "I invented a device that boosts your gas mileage to 99 MPG but Big Oil suppressed it" type claims. If there was really an "antibiotic for viruses" that worked, someone would have brought it to market. If not in the US, then somewhere else.

  27. @utu

    Donald Trump 'offers to pay German company creating experimental coronavirus vaccine to move to the US and make it exclusively for Americans'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8114015/Donald-Trump-tries-pay-German-company-creating-experimental-coronavirus-vaccine-US.html

    Then-CureVac CEO Daniel Menichella met Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force and senior representatives of pharmaceutical and biotech companies to discuss a vaccine at the White House on March 2.

    Menichella, who became CEO in May 2018, was abruptly replaced by board chairman Ingmar Hoerr just nine days after his DC meeting with Trump and drugmakers.
     

    Germany tries to stop US from luring away firm seeking coronavirus vaccine
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-germany-tries-to-stop-us-luring-away-firm-seeking-vaccine.html

    Berlin is trying to stop Washington from persuading a German company seeking a coronavirus vaccine to move its research to the United States, prompting German politicians to insist no country should have a monopoly on any future vaccine.

    Earlier, the Welt am Sonntag German newspaper reported that U.S. President Donald Trump had offered funds to lure CureVac to the United States, and the German government was making counter-offers to tempt it to stay.

    Responding to the report, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, wrote on Twitter: “The Welt story was wrong.”

    Welt am Sonntag quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists’ work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, “but only for the United States.”
     

    Replies: @Anon, @Dieter Kief

    Dietmar Hopp, co-founder of the sofware-company SAP is invested in bio-medical firms and in the Tübingen based CureVac too. He said there was an offer by Trump to take over CureVac, but they’ve turned it down. The former CEO Daniel Menichella, who did talk to Trump about a vaccine in the White House, is gone though.

  28. We have created an initial version of DRACO and shown that it is nontoxic and effective against 18 different viruses in 13 mammalian cell types. We have also demonstrated that DRACO is nontoxic in mice and rescues mice from lethal challenges with H1N1 influenza, Amapari arenavirus, Tacaribe arenavirus, and Guama bunyavirus in preliminary trials. Our DRACO approach and results have been called “visionary” by the White House (National Bioeconomy Blueprint, April 2012, p. 9), named one of the best inventions of the year by Time magazine (November 28, 2011, pp. 58, 78), and featured on the BBC Horizons TV program (2013).

    https://riderinstitute.org/discovery/

    Yet years after discovery, the project is dead. Any ideas as to what happened with this seemingly abandoned gold mine?

  29. To address the question of payments to test subjects: they currently are allowed to compensate people for their time and any other expenses accrued but not beyond that. This is because the medical ethics community decided that paying people for more than just their time is immoral. You can’t ”coerce“ people to be test subjects using financial incentives. Now, on the ground, $1100 means more to some people, and the payment is a factor. But there isn’t just a regulation in the way of say tripling that payment – there’s a medical ethics concern. And those are harder to change on the fly. To be clear though, companies absolutely would pay more if they could. Direct payments to participants are a pittance compared to overall trial expenses.

  30. To focus only on the virus is a mistake.

    What’s killing people and causing hospitals (mainly in Italy) to overflow isn’t the virus.

    It’s this: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    What we want to avoid is bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    The virus is necessary but not sufficient to cause bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    To get bilateral interstitial pneumonia you need the Covid-19 virus + some X factor.

    What is the X factor?

    All the informatics, “big data” science, google algorithms and the worlds’ collective computing prowess should be out to solving this problem. All the people (especially the young) who have contracted bilateral interstitial pneumonia should be studied with a fine tooth comb (genetics, diet, physiology, contact history, behavior) to determine the X factor.

    Once we know the X factor, public health officials can focus on treatment, mitigation of that, and the rest of us can get on with our lives and get over this common cold.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @PennTothal

    Google algorithms have never solved anything. They spied on me for two decades, and still their "personalized" search is worse than useless. Why would they suddenly work?

    , @Jack D
    @PennTothal

    The main X factor is being old, so as soon as we find the fountain of youth, we will be all set.

    , @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @PennTothal

    I can tell you what the major X factors are right now: COPD -- bronchitis and emphysema -- along with asthma, Type 1 diabetes, MS, Lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis. If you're taking the very effective medicines for small cell lung cancer, you are also at a much higher risk.

    If anyone out there is taking Humira/Enbrel or its equivalent, I cannot stress how important it is that you erect a barricade around your life for the next few months.

    There's a lot of talk that if you're young, you'll be fine if your get it. But not if you are a Type 1 diabetic or a severe asthmatic. You are in trouble.

  31. Anon[232] • Disclaimer says:

    Doctors want to treat coronavirus with blood from recovered patients
    https://nypost.com/2020/03/15/doctors-want-to-treat-coronavirus-with-blood-from-recovered-patients/

    Where have I heard this before? Greg Cochran? It sounds like a good idea, as long as the blood is from gay men, since I would have to do a chick-fil-a-esque boycott of the treatment otherwise.

    Doctors searching for treatments to fight the coronavirus say the answer may be in the blood of recovered patients, according to a report.

    Researchers at Johns Hopkins University want to use a method known as “convalescent serum,” which involves harvesting virus-fighting antibodies from the blood of patients who have already beaten the illness, NBC News reported.

  32. @JohnnyWalker123
    I'm really worried. It's obvious that we are very near a stock market crash. This thing is about to go off the cliff very quickly.

    https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1239311267501944834

    Where are you guys putting your money now? What do you think we should do? Any advice from savy investors and market watchers on here?

    Replies: @LondonBob, @The Wild Geese Howard

    Market crashed already, this is beyond market crash territory.

  33. @JohnnyWalker123
    I'm really worried. It's obvious that we are very near a stock market crash. This thing is about to go off the cliff very quickly.

    https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1239311267501944834

    Where are you guys putting your money now? What do you think we should do? Any advice from savy investors and market watchers on here?

    Replies: @LondonBob, @The Wild Geese Howard

    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning. I’d wait a day or two to see how far it drops, then look for cheaper bullion on eBay.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    The three main reasons to hold cash are:

    1) Portability, still a valid medium of exchange short-term.
    2) To take advantage of the eventual rebound, once Corona is under control.
    3) You're not trapped in the market if things get so bad they suspend access for everyone but the Fed, MMs, central banks, and large institutions, which is exactly what they will do if things get bad enough.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning.
     
    Huh? Shouldn't gold go up in an emergency? Arbitrary numbers on worthless paper is of more value now?

    Doesn't cash spread bacteria and viruses? (I got laryngitis once from handling cash from foreigners.)

    It seems like this strain eats away brain cells.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @prime noticer, @Coemgen

  34. @The Wild Geese Howard
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning. I'd wait a day or two to see how far it drops, then look for cheaper bullion on eBay.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Reg Cæsar

    The three main reasons to hold cash are:

    1) Portability, still a valid medium of exchange short-term.
    2) To take advantage of the eventual rebound, once Corona is under control.
    3) You’re not trapped in the market if things get so bad they suspend access for everyone but the Fed, MMs, central banks, and large institutions, which is exactly what they will do if things get bad enough.

  35. Anon[135] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Don't get your hopes high. Moderna's is an mRNA approach. It's likely to be very safe but very unlikely to work. If making effective vaccines were as easy as injecting a single pathogen surface protein, making vaccines would be trivial. But the reality is that it's not - single protein approach is rarely effective. mRNA does nothing to solve this fundamental difficulty.

    In the short term, a far better bet is Gilead's antiviral, remdesivir. Several clinical trials of it are already ongoing.

    A safe and effective vaccine? Wait a year or two.

    Replies: @Pegasus, @Anon

    To be more specific, none of the vaccines we currently use are RNA-based. FDA went put of its way to make easy for Moderna to get approval for a Zika vaccine. But there is zero chance they will ever work.

    More money to the Synagogue – Ivy League – FDA complex, in a country where most big cities ran out of toilet paper and hospital masks.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Anon

    I wouldn't want to say "zero chance" but the likelihood is very low indeed. The NIH probably just clutched that straw because it felt that they had to clutch something and at the time that was the only thing available.

  36. @PennTothal
    To focus only on the virus is a mistake.

    What's killing people and causing hospitals (mainly in Italy) to overflow isn't the virus.

    It's this: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    What we want to avoid is bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    The virus is necessary but not sufficient to cause bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    To get bilateral interstitial pneumonia you need the Covid-19 virus + some X factor.

    What is the X factor?

    All the informatics, "big data" science, google algorithms and the worlds' collective computing prowess should be out to solving this problem. All the people (especially the young) who have contracted bilateral interstitial pneumonia should be studied with a fine tooth comb (genetics, diet, physiology, contact history, behavior) to determine the X factor.

    Once we know the X factor, public health officials can focus on treatment, mitigation of that, and the rest of us can get on with our lives and get over this common cold.

    Replies: @Anon, @Jack D, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Google algorithms have never solved anything. They spied on me for two decades, and still their “personalized” search is worse than useless. Why would they suddenly work?

  37. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:
    @Pegasus
    @Anonymous

    You seem to know what you are talking about. Any hints about why this class of broad spectrum antivirals - the equivalent of penicillin for viruses - did not get any funding nor any mention years after being proven to work in lab mice?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

    Not to get too conspiratorial, but why would someone deface the wikipedia article, in which the name of the inventor disappeared and also it is claimed that the drugs were working in vitro against few viruses. Anyone who has read the paper knows that DRACO was safe and worked against different types of viruses in vivo, which means the compound was administered to mice and cleared diverse viral infections without hurting the animals. Maybe the difference is trivial to the casual reader, but claiming something works and it is safe in vivo vs only in vitro makes a world of difference in drugs research.

    See the red text in the following pic

    https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.129/f5o.aea.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/DRACOb-scaled.jpg

    Compare it to the dodgy wiki article

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

    https://riderinstitute.org/discovery/

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Jack D

    I don’t know. Never heard about it. I’ll have to read about it and try to understand what’s stopping it. On the surface of it, does sound too good to be true. And Tom Rider’s personality might be a factor: “How German-Speaking Scientists and Engineers Invented The Modern World And What We Can Learn From Them”

  38. @Anonymous
    Corona viruses have been around forever yet there aren't any corona virus vaccines.

    A zillion dollars awaits the inventor of an effective corona virus vaccine (corona viruses cause the common cold) yet it has never happened.

    It would require a quantum leap in medicine to develop a corona vaccine that actually works and is not a stunt.

    The motivations behind rolling out what will be a guaranteed ineffective vaccine are dark.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Aardvark, @HA, @Ripple Earthdevil

    So, do we watch the same movie again?
    The clinical trials will show the vaccine doesn’t work.
    They will single source fake data that says it does work.
    A few years in to mass inoculating everyone they can get their hands on, the CDC will be forced to admin it ins’t effective at all, but you should get it anyway (sound familiar – like Flu vaccine?).
    The wreckage caused by a hastily made non-functioning vaccine will be swept under the rug.

  39. @candid_observer
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Is there any way some of these steps can be done in parallel, so that many paths are explored at once?

    E.g., try various biological forms, try various excipients on each of them simultaneously, try simultaneously various dosages for these many forms,and excipients.

    Sure, it's a lot more expensive since only one path will ultimately be chosen, but money should be no object.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    You can do lots of parallel vaccine OPTIONS — the only thing that that takes is more money and testing resources — but it’s very hard to compress the time line.

    You would think — “Hey, this antibody we just concocted in the lab and tested in a bunch of ex vivo environments really disrupts the virus’ lipid layer — woo hoo, let’s make a bunch of it at scale, put it in vials, and have the nurse practitioers inject 300 milliion people — and pandemic solved.!!”

    But that’s a recipe for ultimate ineffectiveness…or worse, catastrophe. While nature is parsimonious, it is also very complex and stuff happens in the immune system that we are only beginning to understand.

    A lot of folks recall their high school biology and think, “Cowpox provides immunity against smallpox..how hard would it be to find the cowpox for Covid-19?” Well, it’s really hard. That’s why the flu shot you might get for this season is only partially effective because the world of viruses is evolution at light speed. And because vaccines take time to make and verify, you always seem to be fighting the last war.

    Covid-19 is an RNA virus, which means it’s relatively simple and mutations for the time being shouldn’t invalidate an effective vaccine. But maybe at some point.

    Of all the sub species of medicine/biology, immunology is really a huge frontier we have yet to fully exploit. If anyone out there has kids interested in biology or medicine, I would urge them to go into immunology. There’s gold in them there hills, and for a lucky few, some Nobel Prizes.

    We are just starting — recent immunological approaches against cancer, like CAR-T, are tremendously exciting, yet still in their infancy. I bet Alzheimers given the recent findings is a viral generated syndrome. The landscape is positively replete with possibilities.

    • Replies: @candid_observer
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    I appreciate that one can't just go through all steps at once in parallel (rather than serially) and expect a good outcome. It probably wouldn't be feasible, just in terms of resources, in any case.

    My suggestion was that some of these steps might be done in parallel, rather than serially. Any such parallelization would speed up the timeline considerably, though at considerable cost.

    Parallelization of some steps might have little impact on safety or ultimate efficacy.

    Perhaps this method has already been incorporated to the extent possible, but I don't know why we should believe that's so: economics has always been an overriding concern in the past.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

  40. @Anon

    It will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

    There’s no chance participants could get infected from the shots.

    The goal is purely to check that the vaccines show no worrisome side effects.
     

    Who cares if there are "worrisome side effects"? What kind of side effects could there be?

    From Vaccines.gov:


    What are common side effects of vaccines?

    The most common side effects after vaccination are mild. They include:

    Pain, swelling, or redness where the shot was given
    Mild fever
    Chills
    Feeling tired
    Headache
    Muscle and joint aches
     

    How about serious side effects?

    Serious side effects from vaccines are extremely rare. For example, if 1 million doses of a vaccine are given, 1 to 2 people may have a severe allergic reaction.
     
    Two people maybe die out of a million? That's the risk rate of driving to the supermarket.

    Of course, this is from vaccines that have gone through "testing and validation," but lets say that without such testing 200 out of a million die. Is my math right? Is that only 1/5 of a percent? Bring it on!

    And destroying the national economy by shutting down for a year is not going to be really great for morbitity and mortality.

    This seems like another case of overregulation designed for situations not like the present, the same as with the testing hurdles.

    Lower the acceptable risk thresholds, pay people a lot to participate in testing, and/or let any volunteer become a guinea pig get the test vaccines in their various dosages. Then release it and tweek it as more becomes known.

    Replies: @James Speaks, @Jack D, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    When they were trying to create a vaccine for SARS (they never did – the funding disappeared when the disease died off) they found that some of the test vaccines had a paradoxical effect in the animal trials – instead of making the disease more mild, it made it worse. This may be because the real danger from Chinese bat soup flu (we should call it that from now on because China and the WHO are busy retconning history) in some individuals comes not from the disease itself but as collateral damage from your immune response.

    Now that it is become clear that the entire world economy has been crashed as a result of Chinese (un)sanitary habits, we should especially not be playing this “no one is to blame – let’s not associate this disease with any particular race” game. This is part of the war on noticing.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
  41. @Pegasus
    @Anonymous

    You seem to know what you are talking about. Any hints about why this class of broad spectrum antivirals - the equivalent of penicillin for viruses - did not get any funding nor any mention years after being proven to work in lab mice?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

    Not to get too conspiratorial, but why would someone deface the wikipedia article, in which the name of the inventor disappeared and also it is claimed that the drugs were working in vitro against few viruses. Anyone who has read the paper knows that DRACO was safe and worked against different types of viruses in vivo, which means the compound was administered to mice and cleared diverse viral infections without hurting the animals. Maybe the difference is trivial to the casual reader, but claiming something works and it is safe in vivo vs only in vitro makes a world of difference in drugs research.

    See the red text in the following pic

    https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.129/f5o.aea.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/DRACOb-scaled.jpg

    Compare it to the dodgy wiki article

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRACO

    https://riderinstitute.org/discovery/

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Jack D

    I am always very skeptical of “I invented a device that boosts your gas mileage to 99 MPG but Big Oil suppressed it” type claims. If there was really an “antibiotic for viruses” that worked, someone would have brought it to market. If not in the US, then somewhere else.

  42. @Anon

    It will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

    There’s no chance participants could get infected from the shots.

    The goal is purely to check that the vaccines show no worrisome side effects.
     

    Who cares if there are "worrisome side effects"? What kind of side effects could there be?

    From Vaccines.gov:


    What are common side effects of vaccines?

    The most common side effects after vaccination are mild. They include:

    Pain, swelling, or redness where the shot was given
    Mild fever
    Chills
    Feeling tired
    Headache
    Muscle and joint aches
     

    How about serious side effects?

    Serious side effects from vaccines are extremely rare. For example, if 1 million doses of a vaccine are given, 1 to 2 people may have a severe allergic reaction.
     
    Two people maybe die out of a million? That's the risk rate of driving to the supermarket.

    Of course, this is from vaccines that have gone through "testing and validation," but lets say that without such testing 200 out of a million die. Is my math right? Is that only 1/5 of a percent? Bring it on!

    And destroying the national economy by shutting down for a year is not going to be really great for morbitity and mortality.

    This seems like another case of overregulation designed for situations not like the present, the same as with the testing hurdles.

    Lower the acceptable risk thresholds, pay people a lot to participate in testing, and/or let any volunteer become a guinea pig get the test vaccines in their various dosages. Then release it and tweek it as more becomes known.

    Replies: @James Speaks, @Jack D, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Remember, we’re talking about side effects from Vaccines that have been VALIDATED.

    If you want to be a guinea pig for a POTENTIAL vaccine that hasn’t been adequately tested, be my guest.

    Make sure you’re all set so that if your immunological system generates a cytokine storm, your heirs are ready.

  43. @PennTothal
    To focus only on the virus is a mistake.

    What's killing people and causing hospitals (mainly in Italy) to overflow isn't the virus.

    It's this: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    What we want to avoid is bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    The virus is necessary but not sufficient to cause bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    To get bilateral interstitial pneumonia you need the Covid-19 virus + some X factor.

    What is the X factor?

    All the informatics, "big data" science, google algorithms and the worlds' collective computing prowess should be out to solving this problem. All the people (especially the young) who have contracted bilateral interstitial pneumonia should be studied with a fine tooth comb (genetics, diet, physiology, contact history, behavior) to determine the X factor.

    Once we know the X factor, public health officials can focus on treatment, mitigation of that, and the rest of us can get on with our lives and get over this common cold.

    Replies: @Anon, @Jack D, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    The main X factor is being old, so as soon as we find the fountain of youth, we will be all set.

  44. @PennTothal
    To focus only on the virus is a mistake.

    What's killing people and causing hospitals (mainly in Italy) to overflow isn't the virus.

    It's this: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    What we want to avoid is bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    The virus is necessary but not sufficient to cause bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

    To get bilateral interstitial pneumonia you need the Covid-19 virus + some X factor.

    What is the X factor?

    All the informatics, "big data" science, google algorithms and the worlds' collective computing prowess should be out to solving this problem. All the people (especially the young) who have contracted bilateral interstitial pneumonia should be studied with a fine tooth comb (genetics, diet, physiology, contact history, behavior) to determine the X factor.

    Once we know the X factor, public health officials can focus on treatment, mitigation of that, and the rest of us can get on with our lives and get over this common cold.

    Replies: @Anon, @Jack D, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    I can tell you what the major X factors are right now: COPD — bronchitis and emphysema — along with asthma, Type 1 diabetes, MS, Lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis. If you’re taking the very effective medicines for small cell lung cancer, you are also at a much higher risk.

    If anyone out there is taking Humira/Enbrel or its equivalent, I cannot stress how important it is that you erect a barricade around your life for the next few months.

    There’s a lot of talk that if you’re young, you’ll be fine if your get it. But not if you are a Type 1 diabetic or a severe asthmatic. You are in trouble.

  45. HA says:
    @Anonymous
    Corona viruses have been around forever yet there aren't any corona virus vaccines.

    A zillion dollars awaits the inventor of an effective corona virus vaccine (corona viruses cause the common cold) yet it has never happened.

    It would require a quantum leap in medicine to develop a corona vaccine that actually works and is not a stunt.

    The motivations behind rolling out what will be a guaranteed ineffective vaccine are dark.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Aardvark, @HA, @Ripple Earthdevil

    “Corona viruses have been around forever yet there aren’t any corona virus vaccines.”

    That’s not true. If you’re a camel/alpaca, there’s at least this (though it’s not a silver bullet by any stretch):
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d42473-018-00392-7

    Or else, if you’re a cow:
    https://www.nbc15.com/content/news/Rock-Co-dairy-farmers-use-vaccine-to-prevent-bovine-coronavirus–568783911.html

    Also, note that one of the reasons it’s so hard to find a vaccine is because the coronavirus is so mutable. But that in turn makes it more likely that the virus will mutate into some less deadly form (as may have happened with the Spanish flu). Viruses that become deadly and virulent enough to make headline are stepping out on a limb, evolution-wise, because that attention makes medical personnel and even common folk more vigilant to its progression, and makes it more likely for the infected to be quarantined before they can infect others.

    For example, SARS hasn’t infected anyone in over a decade. That’s one of the main reasons it has been difficult to marshall the resources and funding required to create a vaccine.

  46. @The Wild Geese Howard
    (((NWO))) trial balloon just went up in Champaign, IL:

    Illinois Mayor Grants Herself Power To Ban Gun Sales And Alcohol During Coronavirus Epidemic

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/illinois-mayor-grants-herself-power-ban-gun-sales-and-alcohol-during-coronavirus-epidemic

    Unsurprisingly, the mayor is a hideous (((AWFUL))).

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    It’s a college town. Enough said.

  47. @The Wild Geese Howard
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning. I'd wait a day or two to see how far it drops, then look for cheaper bullion on eBay.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Reg Cæsar

    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning.

    Huh? Shouldn’t gold go up in an emergency? Arbitrary numbers on worthless paper is of more value now?

    Doesn’t cash spread bacteria and viruses? (I got laryngitis once from handling cash from foreigners.)

    It seems like this strain eats away brain cells.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Reg Cæsar


    Huh? Shouldn’t gold go up in an emergency? Arbitrary numbers on worthless paper is of more value now?
     
    Normally, yes.

    The actual price action in gold and silver over the past five days indicates otherwise.

    I believe PM prices are being suppressed by the Fed, central banks, and market makers to prop up the USD.

    Near term I would use this artificial drop in PM prices to keep stacking!!

    Nothing really makes sense at present.

    Airline shares are tremendously overbought right now because they are talking to the US Govt about a $50 billion bailout. There is literally no reason to buy and hold these for the next 2-3 months, yet share prices are marching upwards as I type this.


    Doesn’t cash spread bacteria and viruses?
     
    Yes. This situation may be used to push for a cashless society.

    Then again, viruses love to live on plastic surfaces for days at a time. Like all those little plastic buttons and touchscreens on the card readers at the supermarket checkout.

    , @prime noticer
    @Reg Cæsar

    "Shouldn’t gold go up in an emergency?"

    that gold went down too, like 150 dollars per ounce, shows that we're in sheer panic mode. no brain cells are being operated here. this is pure fight or flight stuff.

    boomers, largely, are just selling everything and going to US dollars, i assume. or whatever the older people around the world with investments are doing for their native currency. but maybe they don't even want to hold euros, pounds, yen. i'm not sure.

    we have now crashed the world economy for something much less dangerous than TB, polio, small pox, HIV, or severe influenza strains.

    , @Coemgen
    @Reg Cæsar

    Gold going down sounds like deflation.

    On the bright side, if you have physical cash, it should be worth more now than it was a month ago.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  48. @Reg Cæsar
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning.
     
    Huh? Shouldn't gold go up in an emergency? Arbitrary numbers on worthless paper is of more value now?

    Doesn't cash spread bacteria and viruses? (I got laryngitis once from handling cash from foreigners.)

    It seems like this strain eats away brain cells.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @prime noticer, @Coemgen

    Huh? Shouldn’t gold go up in an emergency? Arbitrary numbers on worthless paper is of more value now?

    Normally, yes.

    The actual price action in gold and silver over the past five days indicates otherwise.

    I believe PM prices are being suppressed by the Fed, central banks, and market makers to prop up the USD.

    Near term I would use this artificial drop in PM prices to keep stacking!!

    Nothing really makes sense at present.

    Airline shares are tremendously overbought right now because they are talking to the US Govt about a $50 billion bailout. There is literally no reason to buy and hold these for the next 2-3 months, yet share prices are marching upwards as I type this.

    Doesn’t cash spread bacteria and viruses?

    Yes. This situation may be used to push for a cashless society.

    Then again, viruses love to live on plastic surfaces for days at a time. Like all those little plastic buttons and touchscreens on the card readers at the supermarket checkout.

  49. @Reg Cæsar
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning.
     
    Huh? Shouldn't gold go up in an emergency? Arbitrary numbers on worthless paper is of more value now?

    Doesn't cash spread bacteria and viruses? (I got laryngitis once from handling cash from foreigners.)

    It seems like this strain eats away brain cells.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @prime noticer, @Coemgen

    “Shouldn’t gold go up in an emergency?”

    that gold went down too, like 150 dollars per ounce, shows that we’re in sheer panic mode. no brain cells are being operated here. this is pure fight or flight stuff.

    boomers, largely, are just selling everything and going to US dollars, i assume. or whatever the older people around the world with investments are doing for their native currency. but maybe they don’t even want to hold euros, pounds, yen. i’m not sure.

    we have now crashed the world economy for something much less dangerous than TB, polio, small pox, HIV, or severe influenza strains.

  50. @Reg Cæsar
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    Cash.

    Gold is in freefall this morning.
     
    Huh? Shouldn't gold go up in an emergency? Arbitrary numbers on worthless paper is of more value now?

    Doesn't cash spread bacteria and viruses? (I got laryngitis once from handling cash from foreigners.)

    It seems like this strain eats away brain cells.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @prime noticer, @Coemgen

    Gold going down sounds like deflation.

    On the bright side, if you have physical cash, it should be worth more now than it was a month ago.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Coemgen


    On the bright side, if you have physical cash, it should be worth more now than it was a month ago.
     
    What if it's in Antarctic banknotes?


    http://www.atsnotes.com/catalog/banknotes-pictures/antarctica/antartica-07.JPG
  51. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @candid_observer

    @candid_observer

    You can do lots of parallel vaccine OPTIONS -- the only thing that that takes is more money and testing resources -- but it's very hard to compress the time line.

    You would think -- "Hey, this antibody we just concocted in the lab and tested in a bunch of ex vivo environments really disrupts the virus' lipid layer -- woo hoo, let's make a bunch of it at scale, put it in vials, and have the nurse practitioers inject 300 milliion people -- and pandemic solved.!!"

    But that's a recipe for ultimate ineffectiveness...or worse, catastrophe. While nature is parsimonious, it is also very complex and stuff happens in the immune system that we are only beginning to understand.

    A lot of folks recall their high school biology and think, "Cowpox provides immunity against smallpox..how hard would it be to find the cowpox for Covid-19?" Well, it's really hard. That's why the flu shot you might get for this season is only partially effective because the world of viruses is evolution at light speed. And because vaccines take time to make and verify, you always seem to be fighting the last war.

    Covid-19 is an RNA virus, which means it's relatively simple and mutations for the time being shouldn't invalidate an effective vaccine. But maybe at some point.

    Of all the sub species of medicine/biology, immunology is really a huge frontier we have yet to fully exploit. If anyone out there has kids interested in biology or medicine, I would urge them to go into immunology. There's gold in them there hills, and for a lucky few, some Nobel Prizes.

    We are just starting -- recent immunological approaches against cancer, like CAR-T, are tremendously exciting, yet still in their infancy. I bet Alzheimers given the recent findings is a viral generated syndrome. The landscape is positively replete with possibilities.

    Replies: @candid_observer

    I appreciate that one can’t just go through all steps at once in parallel (rather than serially) and expect a good outcome. It probably wouldn’t be feasible, just in terms of resources, in any case.

    My suggestion was that some of these steps might be done in parallel, rather than serially. Any such parallelization would speed up the timeline considerably, though at considerable cost.

    Parallelization of some steps might have little impact on safety or ultimate efficacy.

    Perhaps this method has already been incorporated to the extent possible, but I don’t know why we should believe that’s so: economics has always been an overriding concern in the past.

    • Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @candid_observer

    Theoretically you could do excipients, safety testing, and efficacy testing more or less fast tracked/simultaneous, but if one leg doesn't work out, you would have to go back to the very beginning and start over. And doing safety testing and efficacy testing together is tough, because you need a much larger N to do efficacy than safety.

    Moreover, efficacy relies on statistical inferences, and statistical inferences also take time to determine.

    Meanwhile, if the drug/vaccine has a bad safety profile, and you do safety and efficacy simultaneously, you've screwed up a larger N. It's another reason why companies try drugs out on monkeys first -- yes, ladies and gentlemen, we do inject our primate cousins, and some with really high dose levels, though drug companies are moving away from that.

    Yes, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!! Or at least some of it.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780124171442/the-nonhuman-primate-in-nonclinical-drug-development-and-safety-assessment

    (Sorry, that wasn't aimed at you. Back to our originally scheduled comment).

    I think the implication you are getting at is right -- money should not be an object, so failures that were fast tracked, even though more expensive, would be acceptable, especially in this crisis situation. And maybe we'll hit the jackpot faster.

    Someday, maybe not in my lifetime or yours, some enterprising person/organization is going to figure out an ex-vivo model that could do the entire process without getting people involved. Computers along with CRISPR are churning out a ton of antibody possibilities. But the stuff has gotta go into humans, and humans are notoriously tricky.

  52. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    I do some work with pharma companies, and lots of folks wonder why it takes so long to get an effective vaccine.

    First you have to figure out what specific biological form that active ingredient the vaccine should take.

    Second you have to figure out what excipients should be used so the active ingredient remains active through a manufacturing and distribution process.

    Third, you have to figure out the range of dosages you have to test.

    Fourth, you have to test those range of dosages across a N number the accurately reflects the demography of your patient pool. This first test is not to test effectiveness but to test for side effects as as well as potency. As part of this phase, if there are side effects, you have to make a decision whether those side effects are worth it. Not easy.

    Fifth, you need to do a double blind with a sufficient N across the demography reflecting your patient pool to see if the vaccine is in fact preventative.

    Time and money. Typically lots of both.

    Replies: @candid_observer, @Sideshow Bob

    Double blind placebo tests are never done for vaccines. Instead of using an inert placebo they test against just the adjuvants or against a currently used vaccine. We don’t actually know what the casualty rate is for any given vaccine due to side effects.

    There has been a rapid increase in the occurrence of autoimmune diseases that correlates with the rapid increase in volume of immune system hacking vaccines. It would be good to know if we were trading the prevention of what for most people are unlikely (e.g. Tetanus) or nuisance (e.g. childhood Varicella) for lifelong chronic illnesses.

  53. @Anonymous
    I had no idea Sailer was this powerful. He's like shadow emperor, and his emissary Tucker informed Trumpet of the decree.

    He calls for zero tolerance war on Corona, and next week, my local library is closed for two weeks. There is WWTP raging all over America. Whole nation is shutting down and going on war footing.

    Replies: @Spangel

    If only sailer were that powerful. We should be so lucky.

  54. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    @Anonymous

    To be more specific, none of the vaccines we currently use are RNA-based. FDA went put of its way to make easy for Moderna to get approval for a Zika vaccine. But there is zero chance they will ever work.

    More money to the Synagogue - Ivy League - FDA complex, in a country where most big cities ran out of toilet paper and hospital masks.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    I wouldn’t want to say “zero chance” but the likelihood is very low indeed. The NIH probably just clutched that straw because it felt that they had to clutch something and at the time that was the only thing available.

  55. @candid_observer
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    I appreciate that one can't just go through all steps at once in parallel (rather than serially) and expect a good outcome. It probably wouldn't be feasible, just in terms of resources, in any case.

    My suggestion was that some of these steps might be done in parallel, rather than serially. Any such parallelization would speed up the timeline considerably, though at considerable cost.

    Parallelization of some steps might have little impact on safety or ultimate efficacy.

    Perhaps this method has already been incorporated to the extent possible, but I don't know why we should believe that's so: economics has always been an overriding concern in the past.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Theoretically you could do excipients, safety testing, and efficacy testing more or less fast tracked/simultaneous, but if one leg doesn’t work out, you would have to go back to the very beginning and start over. And doing safety testing and efficacy testing together is tough, because you need a much larger N to do efficacy than safety.

    Moreover, efficacy relies on statistical inferences, and statistical inferences also take time to determine.

    Meanwhile, if the drug/vaccine has a bad safety profile, and you do safety and efficacy simultaneously, you’ve screwed up a larger N. It’s another reason why companies try drugs out on monkeys first — yes, ladies and gentlemen, we do inject our primate cousins, and some with really high dose levels, though drug companies are moving away from that.

    Yes, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!! Or at least some of it.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780124171442/the-nonhuman-primate-in-nonclinical-drug-development-and-safety-assessment

    (Sorry, that wasn’t aimed at you. Back to our originally scheduled comment).

    I think the implication you are getting at is right — money should not be an object, so failures that were fast tracked, even though more expensive, would be acceptable, especially in this crisis situation. And maybe we’ll hit the jackpot faster.

    Someday, maybe not in my lifetime or yours, some enterprising person/organization is going to figure out an ex-vivo model that could do the entire process without getting people involved. Computers along with CRISPR are churning out a ton of antibody possibilities. But the stuff has gotta go into humans, and humans are notoriously tricky.

  56. @Coemgen
    @Reg Cæsar

    Gold going down sounds like deflation.

    On the bright side, if you have physical cash, it should be worth more now than it was a month ago.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    On the bright side, if you have physical cash, it should be worth more now than it was a month ago.

    What if it’s in Antarctic banknotes?

    • LOL: Coemgen
  57. @Anonymous
    Corona viruses have been around forever yet there aren't any corona virus vaccines.

    A zillion dollars awaits the inventor of an effective corona virus vaccine (corona viruses cause the common cold) yet it has never happened.

    It would require a quantum leap in medicine to develop a corona vaccine that actually works and is not a stunt.

    The motivations behind rolling out what will be a guaranteed ineffective vaccine are dark.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Aardvark, @HA, @Ripple Earthdevil

    Coronaviruses cause something like 25% of common colds. IIRC there are something like 200 known viruses that do so.

  58. @Hypnotoad666
    According to NPR, genetically engineered mice are being pressed into service as well. The absolute best part of the article, however, is to learn that a woman named "Cat Lutz" is in charge of the Mouse Repository.

    I bet when she's away . . . oh, never mind.

    In order to test and ensure that vaccines are safe and effective, researchers typically conduct experiments on animals, usually mice. Though some labs are experimenting with ferrets and monkeys for this virus, mice are cheap and plentiful.

    But researchers can't use ordinary mice. That's because the coronavirus doesn't make mice sick. Humans have to genetically engineer them to be susceptible to the virus. But it seems there are no such mice to be found.

    The problem is that the genetically altered mice that researchers need have been on ice for the past few years, says Cat Lutz, senior director of the Jackson Laboratory Mouse Repository in Bar Harbor, Maine
     
    .

    https://www.npr.org/2020/03/14/815624878/mouse-hunt-lab-races-to-grow-mice-for-covid-19-research

    Replies: @Dissident

    The absolute best part of the article, however, is to learn that a woman named “Cat Lutz” is in charge of the Mouse Repository.

    Reminds me of that story from a little while back featuring a proud Lesbian named “Cat Packer”.

  59. It’s just “…from KOMO in Seattle…” Steve, not “from the KOMO in Seattle” – the same way it is “I’m at WKRP in Cincinnati” (not “I’m at the WKRP in Cincinnati.”).

    Please don’t start writing like yet another of these Chinese coolies who randomly omit and insert articles both definite and indefinite.

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