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Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military
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From CNN:

… the former vice president said there had been 6,114 “military Covid deaths” and 118,984 “military Covid [infections].”

Facts First: This is wrong — and not just by a little. Biden overstated the number of military Covid deaths by 6,107 and infections by nearly 79,000. There have been seven deaths in the military due to Covid-19 and 40,026 cases as of September 9, according to the Defense Department.

Wow, I did not know that: only 7.

So the Case Fatality Rate among US military personnel has been about 1 out of 6000.

The military has mandatory retirement ages and rules against being too fat, so personnel are much less likely to be old, fat, or sickly.

From the DoD:

DOD COVID-19 Cumulative Totals
Cases Hospitalized Recovered Deaths CFR CHR
Military 40,026 592 24,913 7 0.02% 1.48%
Civilian 8,882 357 5,394 55 0.62% 4.02%
Dependent 5,339 124 3,439 7 0.13% 2.32%
Contractor 3,811 170 2,334 21 0.55% 4.46%
Total 58,058 1,243 36,080 90 0.16% 2.14%
As of 0600, Sept. 9, 2020

CFR is Case Fatality Rate or deaths per officially recorded cases. CHR is Case Hospitalization Rate.

The CHR for Military isn’t super low (1.48%), but the CFR rate is almost negligible (0.02%).

 
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  1. Were any of the people in the military who died of Covid also, like, shot through the head by an enemy bullet or beheaded in a helicopter crash or anything like that?

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Troll: guest007
    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @JimDandy

    Not a bad thought given how many state health depts have been negligent. Looking at those rates, I’d guess they are actually deaths “from” the ‘rona. Technically, I suppose it’s possible a few of them were active duty guys recuperating in the hospital from something else when they got it, but I doubt it.

    , @Travis
    @JimDandy

    one of them had Lung cancer , 1 of them were diabetic and 2 had were obese and one was fighting HIV

    Replies: @res

  2. Also the military doesn’t have any incentive to lie about COVID deaths as the private sector.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman, Redman
    • Troll: guest007
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    @Frank G

    • Troll: guest007

    Full-time troll asserts right to identify others as trolls.

    Too bad Unz hasn't come up with a way to keep the litter out of the comment section.

    , @Hibernian
    @Frank G

    Cue the leftists telling us the military has the biggest incentive to lie. (The relative youth and good health of military personnel, along with a good health care system for those who are infected, plus military discipline and punishment for anyone not following precautionary rules is the obvious explanation for the low number of fatalities.)

    , @Abolish_public_education
    @Frank G

    The last time I heard, mil hospitals had statistically significant, lower rates for “emergency” surgical procedures, such as C-section.

    The most obvious explanation was that mil doctors had no financial or defensive incentive to operate.

    Remember that when a Porsche-driving, board certified specialist warns you'll be “dead by morning.”

    , @Piglet
    @Frank G

    Having served in the military for close to 30 years before retiring, I can tell you from experience that no, you cannot automatically trust what the military tells you on any subject. I recall being assigned to a major command headquarters in the USAF and being encouraged to "massage the numbers." Nobody said to falsify them or outright lie, but to "massage." It was, of course, the same thing.

    Over time I saw the same sort of deception going on elsewhere and I came to realize that military public affairs offices were dens of professional liars and propagandists. They existed only to make the base, the wing, the commander and the USAF look good. Their careers depend upon them doing this well. You could not rely on them to be truthful to you. Being around them, I found that they viewed the public, which provided the tax money on which they relied, as the enemy of sorts and they felt no obligation at all to be the least bit truthful.

    Army psychological operations units spread propaganda to break the will of foreign enemies. PAOs spread propaganda domestically to break the will of the taxpayers, or at least massively deceive them.

    I'm not a leftist by any means, but I'm telling you what the reality is. I understand that a lot of people have a very inflated opinion of the military that probably doesn't match reality, but this is the way it really is. Remember that the military is indeed part of the same federal (feral?) government that many have come to despise for various (but valid) reasons.

    Keep in mind these famous quotes:

    “We Americans are the ultimate innocents. We are forever desperate to believe that this time the government is telling us the truth.” Sydney Schanberg (deceased), former NYT journalist and author of The Killing Fields

    “Look, if you think any American official is going to tell you the truth, then you’re stupid. Did you hear that? — stupid.” Arthur Sylvester, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs in the mid-60s

  3. Anonymous[132] • Disclaimer says:

    Steve Sailer:

    “Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military”

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can’t possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    • Agree: Not Raul, JohnPlywood
    • Disagree: El Dato, botazefa, Chrisnonymous
    • LOL: JimDandy, Adam Smith
    • Replies: @Adam Smith
    @Anonymous

    200,000 reported COVID Deaths! in the U.S is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    , @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder
    @Anonymous


    There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater)
     
    Probably 25% of that. Ever heard of the concept of excess deaths?

    The vast majority of covid victims were going to die anyway, and many of the rest were killed by Andrew Cuomo demanding that they be intubated and/or placed in nursing homes.


    About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?
     
    So what you're saying is that either you didn't read Steve's argument, or you couldn't understand it, or both.

    Replies: @Svigor, @HA

    , @AnotherDad
    @Anonymous


    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can’t possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?
     
    132, when you run around yelling "bullshit" it would help to at least have a vague clue about the numbers you trot out.

    Simply writing "3% of the US population are in the military" should set off your bullshit detector. (3% of the US population is 10 million people. We haven't had that number in the service since 1945.)

    And, of course, your COVID deaths 2-4X greater is absolute nonsense. (The incentives run entirely the other way.) And you don't seem to have a clue about who--age and co-morbidity profile--is actually dying from this thing.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @D. K.
    @Anonymous

    The active-duty uniformed military is currently a little under 1.35 million strong:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces#Personnel

    The population of the United States passed 330 million, in late July, according to the population clock maintained by the United States Census Bureau:

    https://www.census.gov/popclock/

    1.35 million / 330 million = c. 0.00409 or c. 0.41%

    You were only off by a factor of about seven and one-third.

    The notion that there have been 400,000 to 800,000 deaths from Covid-19, to date, in the United States, with half to three-quarters of those unaccounted for, despite the federal government's guaranteed reimbursements for every patient labeled as a Covid-19 illness or death, is laughable on its face. Suicides and automobile deaths are being categorized as Covid-19 deaths!

    , @anon
    @Anonymous

    14,500 US Covid deaths age for age brackets roughly corresponding to military service (15-54 years old) out of population about 157 million. source

    1.4 million active duty in military. So proportional representation would get you 129 deaths.

    Once you factor in that they've selectively filtered out pre-existing conditions, which has some kind of Pareto Law effect and the fact that median service member age is on the lower side of the age brackets used above (age effect on mortality also Pareto)-- you're getting to a point where 7 deaths doesn't sound that unreasonable.

    Replies: @J, @Almost Missouri

    , @vhrm
    @Anonymous


    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can’t possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.
     
    Not sure if you're serious however, but there's nothing far fetched about it.
    Active duty military is listed as 1.38M (1).
    US population is 330.3M (2)
    For a people in the military rate of 0.4%

    Further, the CDC lists deaths of people <=44 yo if we control for age and nothing else and assume the military is all under 44 yo as ~4750
    45 - 54 yo as 8501. (3)

    If we control ONLY for age and say for convenience that everyone in the military is < 45 we'd get:
    4750 * 0.004 = 19

    even with the 45-54 it's
    13500 * 0.004 = 54

    This is all painting with a very very broad brush. Most military are in their 20s and 30s with increasingly few in their 40s and above.

    More importantly, the whole point is that the military is that all sorts of co-morbidities are also screened out by the military.

    1) https://www.dmdc.osd.mil/appj/dwp/rest/download?fileName=ms0_2007.pdf&groupName=milTop from https://www.dmdc.osd.mil/appj/dwp/dwp_reports.jsp

    2) https://www.census.gov/popclock/

    3) https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/new-cdc-report-shows-94-of-covid-19-deaths-in-us-had-underlying-medical-conditions/
    , @Alden
    @Anonymous

    Only about 9,500 of the 200, 000 deaths were from covid alone. The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.

    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @guest007, @Almost Missouri, @Jack D, @Chrisnonymous

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Anonymous

    • Is that you, Ron Unz?: Achmed E. Newman

    , @Ben tillman
    @Anonymous

    Real number might be 4x greater than 200,000? I.e., a million?

    Even though there have been just 500,000 deaths total this year in this country?

    I don’t think so.

    Replies: @Pendragon

    , @BenKenobi
    @Anonymous

    Anon 132 with a classic Unz Hat Trick! (four separate reaction buttons, this concept was developed before the Thanks button)

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Anonymous

    200,000 reported COVID deaths

     

    Need to track age cohorts, though. Few 85 year olds hauling oxygen tanks in their packs in Afghanistan.

    25-34 years All deaths involving COVID-19: 1,360

    And the average enlisted member was just over age 27

    1.3 million military ÷ 330 million total = 1 ÷ 100
    1,360 COVID ÷ 100 = 13.6

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

  4. Probably the best argument yet for protecting the vulnerable while letting the rest of us live our lives normally.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The issue is that no one in the military works in a nursing home, retirement center, or is around a large of the elderly.

    One should also note that at the same time that President Trump has downplaying masks and wanting to liberate Michigan from lockdown, the Pentagon was mandating masks for all employees and the Defense Commissary were also mandating masks.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

  5. Join the US Military – and live longer! Especially since our President, Donald J. Trump, hasn’t started any new wars.

    Good news for recruiting.

    OTOH, regular Americans have spent the last six months watching on average about eight more hours of network TV every week – a health care disaster, as well as a disaster for Trump. A substantial amount of that increase is after 11:00 pm, when the left progressive propaganda shows start.

  6. In Singapore, the Bangladeshi and Indian guest workers who are the majority of the COVID victims are, by necessity given their jobs, physically fit men in their 20s and 30s. Hence the relatively low death rate despite the rate of infection.

  7. Yes, it’s almost like the people dying from COVID19 were going to die sooner rather than later anyway.

    • Agree: prosa123, JimDandy
    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @ScarletNumber

    Correct. Places like Sweden where they instituted little formal lockdowns are approaching no excess mortality for the year. Places with heavy lockdowns are much more complicated on the excess death front because strict lockdowns have likely lead to many deaths. Ethical Skeptic already has the “years of life lost” from the lockdowns greater than from the ‘rona.

    Replies: @HA

  8. Off Topic, but I think we have a meme winner:

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Anonymous

    Everyone has their favorite. This is mine. (Currently):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y64dAkZ2SGw

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  9. Anonymous[366] • Disclaimer says:

    Can’t speak for what the other services did, but the Navy didn’t just shine it on. Here are some of the rules put in place back in March:

    And on a lighter note, but one which sailors and marines will relate to:

    • Thanks: El Dato
  10. Anonymous[216] • Disclaimer says:

    Biden is the New Mondale. Only worse. Because Mondale was mostly just a square. Nice guy. Wacky liberal.

    But Biden is a slimeball liar and plagiarist. Crooked politician. Always pretended to be the folksy man of the people but could never pull it off. Got bounced out of the primaries twice when he was in his prime.

    Looks like Biden will lose MN. He is 10 points behind where 2016 Hillary was in Twin Cities poll.

    Like a lot of Senators Biden has never run anything in his life. No executive experience. His first big exec hiring decision: Kamala Harris. She is a disaster.

    Also Biden is a D.C. insider. This is Bob Dole John Kerry John McCain etc all over again. D.C. INSIDERS NEVER BEAT INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS.

    The only way to beat Trump was with an outsider who portrayed Trump as the corrupt insider. Incumbent HW Bush 92 lost to outsider Clinton. (Obviously Mondale was the exact wrong outsider in 84.)

    Biden losing will make four in a row insider senators failing against the incumbent potus.

    I blame a lack of brainpower in the current Dem party. I can’t think of a single scary talented Dem strategist. The equivalent Ragin’ Cajun or David Axelrod are nowhere to be found.

    • Agree: Coemgen
    • Replies: @International Jew
    @Anonymous

    Dagburnit, you've convinced me not to vote for Biden!

    , @epebble
    @Anonymous

    Some interesting survey:

    A 51% majority said Trump is mentally unfit to be president, while 49% answered that he is fit to hold the job. A similar share, by a 52% to 48% margin, responded that Biden is mentally unfit to be president.

    Voters had more confidence in the presidential hopefuls’ physical fitness to hold the White House. A 52% majority said the 74-year-old Trump is physically fit to be president, and 54% said the same about Biden, who is 77.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/2020-election-news-voters-see-trump-biden-as-mentally-unfit-to-be-president.html

    , @AndrewR
    @Anonymous

    McCain wasn't up against an incumbent, and Romney was not really a "DC insider" even if he was slimy and cozy with all the DC sociopaths.

  11. From CNN:

    Facts First: This is wrong — and not just by a little. Biden overstated the number of military Covid deaths by 6,107 …

    CNN is still spinning this like mad, A more relevant description would be that Biden exaggerated the death count by 87,300% .

    • Agree: Ben tillman
    • Replies: @Tim Howells
    @Tim Howells

    And another thing ... where did Biden get that very precise figure of 6,414 deaths anyway? Did it come to him in a dream? One more question: Does the official figure of 7 deaths include people who once were suspected of having covid who died in motorcycle accidents?


    According to Dr. Raul Pino, Health Officer for the Florida Department of Health in Orange County ... "you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash ..."
     
    https://www.newsweek.com/florida-man-killed-crash-listed-covid-19-death-raising-doubts-over-health-data-1518994
  12. A good way to judge your risk (for men only): stand up straight and look down. If you can’t see your feet you’re at elevated risk, and not just from Covid-19.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    @prosa123

    Uh-oh!

    , @Buzz Mohawk
    @prosa123

    There's a bulge in my pants blocking my view. Am I gonna die?

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind, @Almost Missouri, @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Ancient Briton

  13. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    200,000 reported COVID Deaths! in the U.S is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

  14. As a young fit & healthy male (admittedly not military-grade fitness), a 1 in 6000 risk is still quite worrying. I hope the DoD releases a report about those seven deaths; it would be interesting to know if they had complicating factors.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @Andrew M

    Exactly. It means if you are in good fitness and 30 year old and the virus is allowed to run wild there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying within a year from this? Also I would like to know how many people have long term bad effects. It's absolutely bullshit to use his statistic to think this thing is no big deal.

    Replies: @Thatgirl, @Kratoklastes

    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Andrew M

    Then you should never leave your house. The odds of a 25 year-old man dying in any given year is about t1 in 500. The odds of a man in the military dying in any given year is not much different , about 1 in 450

    Replies: @Coemgen

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Andrew M

    I'm not a doctor, and I haven't played one on TV (yet), but here's my advice to you, Andrew:

    - Don't leave the house.
    - Don't operate bicycles or automobiles.
    - Remove all sharp utensils and tools from you premises, subject to the restrictions of (1).
    - If you feel feverish or short of breath, bend your knees, lean well forward, and kiss your ass goodbye.

    Replies: @Andrew M

    , @Thatgirl
    @Andrew M

    At the beginning of this whole mess, I heard an epidemiologist put the numbers in perspective. He said that, if Covid ended up having the highest case fatality rate for young people that was thought at the time, which was 3%, the average 25-year old in the United States would have the life expectancy of a 25-year old in 1975.

    , @AndrewR
    @Andrew M

    Lmao how fit do you think the average military member is? If you're less fit than the military median then you are NOT fit

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @Anon
    @Andrew M

    The risk is not 1 in 6,000 ...... more like one in 150,000. We have over a million troops in the military, many of them over the age of 40. Most of those in the military who died from COVID were over the age of 40

    while the military has confirmed about 50,000 cases, most will show no symptoms because the majority of those under the age of 35 are basically immune to this virus. We have no idea how many troops were infected with coronavirus this year. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/09/03/7th-us-service-member-has-died-from-covid-19/

    The U.S. service members who’ve died due to complications related to COVID-19 are Navy Chief Charles Thacker, 41; Army reservist Sgt. Simon Zamudio, 34; Army reservist Spc. Curtis Fort, 61; and Army reservist Master Sgt. Brian K. Tolliver, 46 and Army Capt. Douglas Linn Hickock, 57, with the New Jersey National Guard and Lt. Col. Jonathan Shiroma, a 36-year-old staff sergeant assigned to the California National Guard. The average age was 46 years-old.

    , @Piglet
    @Andrew M

    People in the military are not necessarily good health and don't look much like the people in the movies. Not everyone is a Navy SEAL or USAF pararescueman. In fact, in my last unit in the Army Reserve, most of the members of the unit couldn't begin to pass a fitness test and many were just plain obese, and they didn't even begin to take care of their own health. The scores they achieved on fitness tests were simply abysmal, and that was with a lot of cheating. Since retiring I know a number of them have since died (long before COVID) from various ailments, such as cancer, a brain aneurysm, accident, etc., and those were just the ones I heard about.

  15. Sturgis: 365,979 attended, 5 deaths due to crashes, 1 death due to covid, $12 billion in public health something or other

    Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was ‘superspreading event’ that cost public health $12.2 billion: analysis

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/515453-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-was-superspreading-event-that-cost-public

    The first known Covid-19 death linked to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is in Minnesota

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/health/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-covid-death/index.html

    Sturgis 2020 In Numbers: Attendance Only Down Slightly, Crashes Up

    https://www.rideapart.com/articles/439496/sturgis-2020-attendance-crime-numbers/

    • Replies: @Coemgen
    @George

    When was the Sturgis Rally?

    When did this paper get published?

    Can you say: rush to judgement?

    , @Piglet
    @George

    You'll find the debunking here:

    A Tale of Two Mass Gatherings: Sturgis ‘Super Spreader’ Bike Rally vs. Black Lives Matter ‘Fiery but Mostly Peaceful’ Protests
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/09/no_author/a-tale-of-two-mass-gatherings-sturgis-super-spreader-bike-rally-vs-black-lives-matter-fiery-but-mostly-peaceful-protests/

  16. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater)

    Probably 25% of that. Ever heard of the concept of excess deaths?

    The vast majority of covid victims were going to die anyway, and many of the rest were killed by Andrew Cuomo demanding that they be intubated and/or placed in nursing homes.

    About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    So what you’re saying is that either you didn’t read Steve’s argument, or you couldn’t understand it, or both.

    • Replies: @Svigor
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    Yeah, counting problems are unavoidable. And I tend to agree with you that here they're probably overestimating. I also think that the further you get down the list of "developed nations," the bigger the shift from overestimating toward underestimating. This is why the judenpresse's statistical comparisons between USA and places like Brazil or "the world" are so deceptive, even when they aren't openly innumerate (raw totals rather than rates to compare countries with wildly different populations).

    , @HA
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    "Ever heard of the concept of excess deaths?"

    If anything, excess mortality rates rates indicate that we've undercounted coronavirus deaths.

    The same goes for anyone claiming that the tolls have been inflated by creative mislabeling in cause-of-death certificates. Yes, we've all heard about the motorcycle death attributed to COVID. That was definitely a covid death overcount. But when you include all the false negatives and never-tested-for-covid deaths that resulted in a local undercount of covid mortality -- or better yet, just look at the excess mortality, as noted -- the death toll is pretty much the same (and actually somewhat larger).

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  17. Seems like a poorly designed bio-weapon

    • Replies: @tyrone
    @Kent Nationalist

    OR brilliantly designed ……..depends on the target…….was it a kill strike?, we'll see in november.

    , @Libre
    @Kent Nationalist

    Nah it destroyed our economy and social fabric. It was perfect.

  18. Is George Floyd counted as a Chinese virus 19 death.

    If someone has a positive test that is followed by a more accurate negative test, is the positive test removed from the total? The governor of Ohio is my example.

  19. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can’t possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    132, when you run around yelling “bullshit” it would help to at least have a vague clue about the numbers you trot out.

    Simply writing “3% of the US population are in the military” should set off your bullshit detector. (3% of the US population is 10 million people. We haven’t had that number in the service since 1945.)

    And, of course, your COVID deaths 2-4X greater is absolute nonsense. (The incentives run entirely the other way.) And you don’t seem to have a clue about who–age and co-morbidity profile–is actually dying from this thing.

    • Agree: vhrm, Goatweed
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @AnotherDad


    Simply writing “3% of the US population are in the military” should set off your bullshit detector. (3% of the US population is 10 million people. We haven’t had that number in the service since 1945.)
     
    Studies show that 87.4% of all statistics are simply made up.
  20. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    The active-duty uniformed military is currently a little under 1.35 million strong:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces#Personnel

    The population of the United States passed 330 million, in late July, according to the population clock maintained by the United States Census Bureau:

    https://www.census.gov/popclock/

    1.35 million / 330 million = c. 0.00409 or c. 0.41%

    You were only off by a factor of about seven and one-third.

    The notion that there have been 400,000 to 800,000 deaths from Covid-19, to date, in the United States, with half to three-quarters of those unaccounted for, despite the federal government’s guaranteed reimbursements for every patient labeled as a Covid-19 illness or death, is laughable on its face. Suicides and automobile deaths are being categorized as Covid-19 deaths!

  21. anon[282] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    14,500 US Covid deaths age for age brackets roughly corresponding to military service (15-54 years old) out of population about 157 million. source

    1.4 million active duty in military. So proportional representation would get you 129 deaths.

    Once you factor in that they’ve selectively filtered out pre-existing conditions, which has some kind of Pareto Law effect and the fact that median service member age is on the lower side of the age brackets used above (age effect on mortality also Pareto)– you’re getting to a point where 7 deaths doesn’t sound that unreasonable.

    • Agree: J
    • Replies: @J
    @anon

    Agree. But the issue is that the virus causes a bad respiratory disease. Even if it does not kill or is curable - it is a pandemic. The fear it causes may be exaggerated and it has broken the economy.

    Replies: @anon, @Libre

    , @Almost Missouri
    @anon

    So a million-odd people living and working at close quarters, who get out and about far more than the average, and only 7 deaths ...

    = 0.0005% mortality rate on a population that by circumstance and behavior should be among the most at risk.

    This means the US COVID mortality (0.06%) is overwhelmingly mortality of the already morbid.

  22. Another life expectancy statistic: 30% of people who have a leg amputated die within one month, and by the end of one year the death rate is 54%. If a Covid-19 patient has had such an amputation, and I’m sure some are in that category, attributing their deaths to the virus can be misleading.

  23. @Anonymous
    Off Topic, but I think we have a meme winner:

    https://youtu.be/7C0Z8dh83Ro

    Replies: @JimDandy

    Everyone has their favorite. This is mine. (Currently):

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @JimDandy

    It's about that time of year, isn't? These folks are usually safely quarantined in the desert. Only Portland would take them in 2020.


    Burning Man Canceled, But Black Rock City Still Lives For A Few Die-Hards


    https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/01/31/PREN/2878c76f-c2e8-4716-a85a-c05671b16bb4-Burning_Man_2013_10.JPG

  24. Even for a Democrat, the numbers were so wildly inaccurate, you wonder why he tried to pass them off. I mean CNN was forced to correct him. Perhaps old Joe misspoke ? Maybe he missed his nap.

  25. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can’t possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Not sure if you’re serious however, but there’s nothing far fetched about it.
    Active duty military is listed as 1.38M (1).
    US population is 330.3M (2)
    For a people in the military rate of 0.4%

    Further, the CDC lists deaths of people <=44 yo if we control for age and nothing else and assume the military is all under 44 yo as ~4750
    45 – 54 yo as 8501. (3)

    If we control ONLY for age and say for convenience that everyone in the military is < 45 we'd get:
    4750 * 0.004 = 19

    even with the 45-54 it's
    13500 * 0.004 = 54

    This is all painting with a very very broad brush. Most military are in their 20s and 30s with increasingly few in their 40s and above.

    More importantly, the whole point is that the military is that all sorts of co-morbidities are also screened out by the military.

    1) https://www.dmdc.osd.mil/appj/dwp/rest/download?fileName=ms0_2007.pdf&groupName=milTop from https://www.dmdc.osd.mil/appj/dwp/dwp_reports.jsp

    2) https://www.census.gov/popclock/

    3) https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/new-cdc-report-shows-94-of-covid-19-deaths-in-us-had-underlying-medical-conditions/

  26. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    Only about 9,500 of the 200, 000 deaths were from covid alone. The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.

    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.

    • Troll: guest007
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Alden

    To my surprise, the word "comorbidity" doesn't mean co-cause of death it means "another ailment:"

    "the simultaneous presence of two chronic diseases or conditions in a patient."

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Redman

    , @guest007
    @Alden

    You are intentionally misinterpreting a statistics from the CDC that is based on death certificate data and you are using it in a way that the CDC has stated is incorrect.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Almost Missouri
    @Alden


    The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.
     
    Holy smokes, is that true? If so, that alone tells that the whole COVID Pandemic™ was a tempest in a teapot.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @Jack D
    @Alden


    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.
     
    This is not at all surprising given the average age of death - how many 80 year olds DON'T have some major health problem of one sort or another? However, our medical establishment has gotten quite good at prolonging the life (if not always the quality of life) of people with even severe ailments. Lots of people linger for years and even decades with COPD, diabetes, heart disease, etc., kept alive by medications and various interventions. COVID disrupted this considerably. Oldsters that might have lingered on for 5 or 10 more years (or until the next big flu season) had their expiration dates pushed up by years in many cases.

    This doesn't mean that only 9,500 deaths were from Covid - in fact it means the opposite - that 9,500 people with well above average health were taken by it.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Alden

    I tend to agree that the number of deaths not attributable to being old or sick before getting COVID is smaller than the reported deaths. However, please check out this video about the CDC report....

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_TECf3xSFbU

  27. VOTE FOR BIDEN, AND THE PANDEMIC MAGICALLY STOPS ON NOV. 5th!!

    VOTE TWICE FOR BIDEN, AND THE RIOTS AND THE LOCKDOWNS STOP ON NOV. 5th!!

    VOTE FIVE TIMES BY MAIL FOR BIDEN, AND WE STOP THE RIOTS, AND BRING BACK THE ECONOMY!! (Whispers offstage). Huh? OKAY, WE BRING BACK PART OF THE ECONOMY!!

    WE PROMISE: GET DOWN WITH THE SHAKEDOWN, AND WE’LL GO DOWNTOWN!

    Obey. Your. Master!

    At all costs, no matter what, the goyim must never again be permitted to regain control of their country. If they ever figure out what we’ve done to them, how long and carefully we planned it, and that it was us, all along… Oy, it’ll be Annuddah Shoah. But this time a real one, not the kind that we make up.

    • Replies: @Neuday
    @The Germ Theory of Disease


    At all costs, no matter what, the goyim must never again be permitted to regain control of their country. If they ever figure out what we’ve done to them, how long and carefully we planned it, and that it was us, all along… Oy, it’ll be Annuddah Shoah. But this time a real one, not the kind that we make up.
     
    Let's see . . . there are about 330,000,000 people in the U.S., and it's often reported that Jews are about 2% of the population, so that would be . . . a little over 6 million. So I guess it's time.
    , @Svigor
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Never again for the first time, bigot!


    The numbers Biden cited are very close the numbers for Michigan, not the Military. He probably misread.
     
    That makes perfect sense in a non compos mentis, "oh the president merely pressed the red button instead of the cancel button, oh well" kind of way.

    This’ll be fun when he’s deciding which countries to bomb.
     
    Let's hope he doesn't confuse anything else with "US military."
  28. You also have to have an IQ north of 85 or 90 to be in the military, which may be relevant in a Kierkegaard’s Fifth Law of Behavioral Genetics sort of way. After all, Covid “discriminates” against black people.

  29. The numbers Biden cited are very close the numbers for Michigan, not the Military. He probably misread.

    • Replies: @El Dato
    @MC

    Good explanation. It's like those "he was only off by one" errors when the machine blows up because someone get the SKU number of a part wrong.

    https://youtu.be/Yq7FKO5DlV0?t=298

    , @anon
    @MC

    Well to be fair the words are very similar.

    This'll be fun when he's deciding which countries to bomb.

    Replies: @Redman, @Ancient Briton

    , @Redman
    @MC

    That was the exact excuse his campaign gave to CNN. But doesn’t anyone check his notes before he gives these speeches? It’s not like they must feel comfortable with him going off script.

    So he mistook “Michigan” for the “Military” and then tried to make a big emotional point out of it in a speech. (not real clear what point he was even trying to make). The voters are supposed to be comfortable with that excuse?

    This guy couldn’t pass a 3rd grade math test at this point and he wants to be President. Great example for our kids who are constantly being told how important STEM is.

  30. @prosa123
    A good way to judge your risk (for men only): stand up straight and look down. If you can't see your feet you're at elevated risk, and not just from Covid-19.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Buzz Mohawk

    Uh-oh!

  31. anonymous[311] • Disclaimer says:
    @Andrew M
    As a young fit & healthy male (admittedly not military-grade fitness), a 1 in 6000 risk is still quite worrying. I hope the DoD releases a report about those seven deaths; it would be interesting to know if they had complicating factors.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Achmed E. Newman, @Thatgirl, @AndrewR, @Anon, @Piglet

    Exactly. It means if you are in good fitness and 30 year old and the virus is allowed to run wild there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying within a year from this? Also I would like to know how many people have long term bad effects. It’s absolutely bullshit to use his statistic to think this thing is no big deal.

    • Replies: @Thatgirl
    @anonymous

    There is a whole world of possible thoughts between "no big deal" and "end of the world." In addition, there is a whole world of possible responses between "allowing virus to run wild" and "locking down everyone indefinitely."

    It is only by recognizing the actual risks to different populations that can we begin to tailor a practical solution to a virus that quite possibly will be with us for many years.

    Or we could just continue to run around with our hair on fire...

    , @Kratoklastes
    @anonymous


    It means if you are in good fitness and 30 year old and the virus is allowed to run wild there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying within a year from this?
     
    You've missed a bunch of aspects of military life that diverge from the norm and generate tilts towards increased spread of any illness - for example, living in close quarters with your squad (for the Navy shipboard 'close quarters' is an understatement).

    Besides, 1 in 10,000 is trivial: it's in line with... wait for it ... the 'flu, bro.

    The median military member does not have 'good' fitness: they have adequate fitness.

    Fitness standards in militaries the world over have taken the same path as US high school grades - i.e., the standard to get an 'A' has declined, and the standard to get a 'pass' is embarrassingly low. (It's higher for combat arms, but even there the standard is worse than it used to be: turns out that even unemployable youth are pretty risk-averse when it comes to pointless wars).


    (When I was a soldier, standards were higher. We were all fitter than Olympic ninjas and smarter than Jedis... at least that's how I remember it. We wuz good-lookin', too. You whippersnappers don't know how easy you've got it... now get off my lawn).

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  32. @MC
    The numbers Biden cited are very close the numbers for Michigan, not the Military. He probably misread.

    Replies: @El Dato, @anon, @Redman

    Good explanation. It’s like those “he was only off by one” errors when the machine blows up because someone get the SKU number of a part wrong.

  33. Tory Sovietism in the UK:

    Serious health führer Matt Hancock is serious.

    The UK government’s new Covid rules are authoritarian and arbitrary. How much longer will people put up with this?

    The health secretary, who also seems to have appointed himself commissioner of the fun police, explained to the adoring inmates of Airstrip One that: “one of the pieces of feedback we had, including from the police, was that we needed the rules to be super simple so that everybody knows what they are, and now this will be rigorously enforced by the police. This is really simple. Gatherings are OK, they should be socially distanced of course, but groups only of up to six.”

    They may be really simple, Mr Hancock, but far more striking than their simplicity is their earth-shattering stupidity. The new restrictions are being introduced in response to a steep rise in coronavirus cases. Not deaths, not hospitalisations, but cases [this probably means, someone’s test was positive, not that someone is ill, as is the custom in 2020]. This rise in cases has, astonishingly, coincided with an increase in testing, but the fact that if you go looking for something you might find more of it doesn’t seem to have crossed the minds of the geniuses at the Department of Health.

    Despite that little nugget of information passing them by, they have identified some situations where it is apparently fine for more than six people to congregate. These include schools and workplaces, ‘Covid-secure’ weddings, funerals and organised team sports.

    “6 meetings and a funeral – the new COVID Video!”

    Well, maybe “6” is the key number of some computer simulation above which the UK goes critical. I suppose that’s it.

    The devolved administrations in Wales and Scotland seem to be having a competition to be even more ridiculous than the absolute shower in Westminster, and the MSM continue to breathlessly report every case of coronavirus without ever providing the context of how ill any of the people who have it are.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @El Dato

    The CDC tells people to stay 6 ft. apart. In Europe the "authorities" tell people to stay 1.5 meters apart, which is just under 5 ft. Why don't they say 1.8 meters? The arbitrariness of it indicates it's all bulls**t. Likewise the deal with face coverings. Cloth masks are fine. N95 masks are okay now, but used to not be okay, because only health care professionals were supposed to have them as they are precious. The fact that there is an enormous difference between homemade cloth masks, bandanas, paper surgical masks, and N95 masks makes no never mind. Even plastic face-shields are okay, despite the fact that they they are completely useless in terms of filtering out aerosol droplets. It is health security theater.

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

  34. @MC
    The numbers Biden cited are very close the numbers for Michigan, not the Military. He probably misread.

    Replies: @El Dato, @anon, @Redman

    Well to be fair the words are very similar.

    This’ll be fun when he’s deciding which countries to bomb.

    • Replies: @Redman
    @anon

    If there was any comedy left in America, someone could do quite the parody of Uncle Joe. But the left is just too afraid of it catching on and influencing young voters.

    Someone could do an old SNL Emily Litella skit, but as Biden.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fZLeaSWY37I

    , @Ancient Briton
    @anon

    Oh, you meant that Georgia. Never mind.

  35. Of 50 patients treated with calcifediol, one required admission to the ICU, while of 26 untreated patients, 13 required admission.

    I think that once the results of this randomised trial sink in, covid will be a done deal. Calcifediol is essentially fast acting vitamin D. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764

  36. But when I hear that the average person on the street believes the US COVID-19 death toll is on the order of nine million, Sleepy Creepy Joe’s numbers aren’t at all shocking, as he is somewhat less than average.

  37. @Tim Howells

    From CNN:

    Facts First: This is wrong — and not just by a little. Biden overstated the number of military Covid deaths by 6,107 ...
     

     
    CNN is still spinning this like mad, A more relevant description would be that Biden exaggerated the death count by 87,300% .

    Replies: @Tim Howells

    And another thing … where did Biden get that very precise figure of 6,414 deaths anyway? Did it come to him in a dream? One more question: Does the official figure of 7 deaths include people who once were suspected of having covid who died in motorcycle accidents?

    According to Dr. Raul Pino, Health Officer for the Florida Department of Health in Orange County … “you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash …”

    https://www.newsweek.com/florida-man-killed-crash-listed-covid-19-death-raising-doubts-over-health-data-1518994

  38. @anon
    @Anonymous

    14,500 US Covid deaths age for age brackets roughly corresponding to military service (15-54 years old) out of population about 157 million. source

    1.4 million active duty in military. So proportional representation would get you 129 deaths.

    Once you factor in that they've selectively filtered out pre-existing conditions, which has some kind of Pareto Law effect and the fact that median service member age is on the lower side of the age brackets used above (age effect on mortality also Pareto)-- you're getting to a point where 7 deaths doesn't sound that unreasonable.

    Replies: @J, @Almost Missouri

    Agree. But the issue is that the virus causes a bad respiratory disease. Even if it does not kill or is curable – it is a pandemic. The fear it causes may be exaggerated and it has broken the economy.

    • Replies: @anon
    @J

    But the issue is that the virus causes a bad respiratory disease.

    No, that's not correct. SARS-2 is a circulatory disease that is spread via the respiratory route. It causes blood vessels to leak. This can lead to scary but not too dangerous symptoms such as "COVID toe" blood blisters or "COVID tongue" spots. It can also lead to fluid leaking into the lungs blocking oxygen exchange and bleeding in the brain leading to strokes.

    Some damage can be done in the heart, but it's still not even clear how much - maybe only the very sick, maybe not. I have not yet found out if anyone has even asked what SARS does to kidney / liver.

    , @Libre
    @J

    There's no pandemic. If it weren't on the news, you wouldnt know there's a cold going around

  39. @AnotherDad
    @Anonymous


    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can’t possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?
     
    132, when you run around yelling "bullshit" it would help to at least have a vague clue about the numbers you trot out.

    Simply writing "3% of the US population are in the military" should set off your bullshit detector. (3% of the US population is 10 million people. We haven't had that number in the service since 1945.)

    And, of course, your COVID deaths 2-4X greater is absolute nonsense. (The incentives run entirely the other way.) And you don't seem to have a clue about who--age and co-morbidity profile--is actually dying from this thing.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Simply writing “3% of the US population are in the military” should set off your bullshit detector. (3% of the US population is 10 million people. We haven’t had that number in the service since 1945.)

    Studies show that 87.4% of all statistics are simply made up.

    • LOL: Jim Don Bob
  40. Don’t know whether all is factual but it sounds like emptying nursing homes is followed by making bank 🤣 :

    Democrats & Republicans agree: Politicians & corporations should be spared from prosecution over killer Covid-19 care homes

    When Cuomo’s corporate immunity provisions first resurfaced in Senate Republicans’ Covid-19 stimulus package in July, some thought it was a fluke. The legislative package protected elder care homes from lawsuits over “resource or staffing shortage” and classed hospital administrators as caregivers for the purpose of that immunity. Cuomo himself criticized the bill, even as journalists noted the similarity of its language to his own legislation.

    The bill in question was actually written by the Greater New York Hospital Association (GNYHA), a lobbying group that paid Cuomo over $1 million for the privilege of walling its members off from legal action [how can he do that?] in the midst of a pandemic that has seen tens of thousands of Americans die in nursing homes across the nation. Careful to cover all its bases, the GNYHA also spread over a quarter of a million dollars among Democratic legislative committees, ensuring the provision would be passed.

    Critics said the measure green-lighted the most egregious corporate misbehavior – “effectively reward[ing] executives at nursing homes where thousands of elderly residents were killed by the coronavirus,” in the words of the progressive trio. Under pressure from progressive Democrats, the immunity measure was reined in by a second bill that limited its effect only to Covid-19 cases.

    However, that ‘restriction’, combined with the hefty federal payouts to hospitals for coronavirus cases, may only have served to encourage facilities to list coronavirus on death certificates – and other states quickly followed New York’s example, passing their own version of the liability shield.

    Those articles should all have a JavaScript applet helping one to follow the money in an easily graspable graph. There is a big Market Opportunity here for a company called “Moneylysis” or something.

  41. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    • Is that you, Ron Unz?: Achmed E. Newman

  42. @Andrew M
    As a young fit & healthy male (admittedly not military-grade fitness), a 1 in 6000 risk is still quite worrying. I hope the DoD releases a report about those seven deaths; it would be interesting to know if they had complicating factors.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Achmed E. Newman, @Thatgirl, @AndrewR, @Anon, @Piglet

    Then you should never leave your house. The odds of a 25 year-old man dying in any given year is about t1 in 500. The odds of a man in the military dying in any given year is not much different , about 1 in 450

    • Replies: @Coemgen
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    About 1 in 620 according to this table: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

  43. @Andrew M
    As a young fit & healthy male (admittedly not military-grade fitness), a 1 in 6000 risk is still quite worrying. I hope the DoD releases a report about those seven deaths; it would be interesting to know if they had complicating factors.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Achmed E. Newman, @Thatgirl, @AndrewR, @Anon, @Piglet

    I’m not a doctor, and I haven’t played one on TV (yet), but here’s my advice to you, Andrew:

    – Don’t leave the house.
    – Don’t operate bicycles or automobiles.
    – Remove all sharp utensils and tools from you premises, subject to the restrictions of (1).
    – If you feel feverish or short of breath, bend your knees, lean well forward, and kiss your ass goodbye.

    • LOL: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Andrew M
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The overall risk of dying in a motor vehicle accident is 1:6700 in any given year, which sounds similar to Covid-19 in the military. But nearly 1/3rd of those involved alcohol, and drugs (legal & illegal) account for another 1/6th. Another huge chunk is motorcyclists, not car drivers.

    Your chances of dying sober while wearing a seatbelt and driving sensibly in a modern car are considerably lower.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @adreadline

  44. @Anonymous
    Biden is the New Mondale. Only worse. Because Mondale was mostly just a square. Nice guy. Wacky liberal.

    But Biden is a slimeball liar and plagiarist. Crooked politician. Always pretended to be the folksy man of the people but could never pull it off. Got bounced out of the primaries twice when he was in his prime.

    Looks like Biden will lose MN. He is 10 points behind where 2016 Hillary was in Twin Cities poll.

    Like a lot of Senators Biden has never run anything in his life. No executive experience. His first big exec hiring decision: Kamala Harris. She is a disaster.

    Also Biden is a D.C. insider. This is Bob Dole John Kerry John McCain etc all over again. D.C. INSIDERS NEVER BEAT INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS.

    The only way to beat Trump was with an outsider who portrayed Trump as the corrupt insider. Incumbent HW Bush 92 lost to outsider Clinton. (Obviously Mondale was the exact wrong outsider in 84.)

    Biden losing will make four in a row insider senators failing against the incumbent potus.

    I blame a lack of brainpower in the current Dem party. I can't think of a single scary talented Dem strategist. The equivalent Ragin' Cajun or David Axelrod are nowhere to be found.

    Replies: @International Jew, @epebble, @AndrewR

    Dagburnit, you’ve convinced me not to vote for Biden!

  45. This is not a spam post. I wish everyone would watch the whole thing, but if you just FF right to 23:16 and pause within the next 5 seconds, you’ll see a chart of COVID cases and hospitalizations at 16 big universities. The case column has numbers from a hundred and something to over 1,400 (Go Carolina!) The hospitalization column has ZEROES. Yes, ZEROES in every column. Total cases is over 11,000. Of course there is no “deaths” column either.

    What a scam this whole Kung Flu Panic-fest has been!

    Ron Paul is so damn refreshing to listen to. How did a guy with this much perspective and common sense ever make it to Congress? (Grandfathered in?)

    • Agree: Travis
    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @theMann
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The Mother of all Scams. It is even worse than the charts show:

    1. There, to date, has been no, as in not one, mapping of "covid-19" under an electron microscope. No chemical structure, no "map" of the Virus. *(My point, along with many others making this point: it doesn't exist.)
    2. Both the WHO and the CDC's have an official policy of NEVER doing an autopsy on a covid-19 death.
    3. Death Certificates have been routinely altered, as in fraud committed, two weeks after the original death report is issued. Of course, at that point the body has been cremated or buried, so no way to invalidate the fraudulent Death Certificate.
    4. The head of the CDCs has publicly stated that the Deaths from the (illegal, War Crimes) lockdowns are more than twice the Covid-19 deaths. I have previously posted the video.
    5. The studies that masks don't work runs to the low hundreds, indeed, they are counterproductive as genuinely unhealthy. By the time people start loosing teeth, getting Asthma, and catching TB it will be a little late for I told you so's.
    6. From the top down, this tyranny was pre-planned - over one hundred nations with the same Media Lies, church closings, hysterically fear mongering - all of it self evident lies from the beginning, massively coordinated.


    But you know what, I just don't care any more, because I have realized a fundamental truth. The world is divided into the mass of shit-eaters, and the few who are men. And we just can't intersect with each other. Let every one of the shit-eaters get what is coming to them, because they do have it coming to them. When you line up for those "vaccines" that turn you into dog-boy and pig-girl, I will laugh out loud watching you turn into something less than human.

    Replies: @HA

  46. @Alden
    @Anonymous

    Only about 9,500 of the 200, 000 deaths were from covid alone. The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.

    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @guest007, @Almost Missouri, @Jack D, @Chrisnonymous

    To my surprise, the word “comorbidity” doesn’t mean co-cause of death it means “another ailment:”

    “the simultaneous presence of two chronic diseases or conditions in a patient.”

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Steve Sailer

    Look, here's what it's all about, in reality, for old people once they get hospitalized or in the shape for which they should be:


    If you've dealt with an older family member or friend in the hospital for serious illness (not the same as with young people hurt in a car wreck), you may know how this goes. This one condition requires this treatment, but we can't do that until he gets his XYZ readings up. For that, we will prescribe drug ABC, which does have a worsening effect on this OTHER condition. Additionally, the same drug, that he really needs to take, has a side effect causing this OTHER problem, which hopefully will not be bad enough to stop us from doing that original treatment we were going to do ... It gets pretty sad and/or scary, as things as up in the fashion of a puzzle. Solving the puzzle is the way to get through it all, until something else crops up next month. I hope all you readers can somehow avoid this, but ... as opposed to what, right?

    After all that, for some months, if the patient doesn't make it home, then the cause of death must be logged. What was it, exactly? Note that 2.6 average co-conditions. But, we need a code or two, and "old age" is not one of them.
     
    (From Peak Stupidity's post "6% dying from Kung Flu alone - Vindication, bitchez!".)

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    , @Redman
    @Steve Sailer

    This is true, but in courts (where I practice) the issue of co-morbidities is quite significant in parsing true causes of death.

    COD is often a highly subjective exercise with differing opinions among medical experts. Scientific consensus on COD is rarer than one would imagine. And with a novel virus, I would think the divergence among experts would be more pronounced.

  47. in the entire United States less than 6,000 deaths have occurred among those under the age of 45. The majority of them were obese.

    We can assume the 7 victims had a comorbidity. From 1998 to 2010, there was a threefold increase in the annual number of active-duty personnel diagnosed as overweight or obese . 60% of male and 40% of female active-duty military personnel were overweight, including 13% who qualified as obese. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4010088/

    the majority of service members are now overweight or obese. https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/features/sah-sah0000057.pdf

  48. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Andrew M

    I'm not a doctor, and I haven't played one on TV (yet), but here's my advice to you, Andrew:

    - Don't leave the house.
    - Don't operate bicycles or automobiles.
    - Remove all sharp utensils and tools from you premises, subject to the restrictions of (1).
    - If you feel feverish or short of breath, bend your knees, lean well forward, and kiss your ass goodbye.

    Replies: @Andrew M

    The overall risk of dying in a motor vehicle accident is 1:6700 in any given year, which sounds similar to Covid-19 in the military. But nearly 1/3rd of those involved alcohol, and drugs (legal & illegal) account for another 1/6th. Another huge chunk is motorcyclists, not car drivers.

    Your chances of dying sober while wearing a seatbelt and driving sensibly in a modern car are considerably lower.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Andrew M

    Andrew, I wouldn't have been so flippant in my comment if I'd know you would reply civilly and calmly (never rule anything out!)

    If you are between 25 and 35 y/o, Andrew, the CDC data says that the total percentage of deaths WITH COVID-19 of people your age is 9%, but that's not accounting for co-morbidities. They say (look here) someone in that age group (I'm assuming, cause you didn't say) has a 0.13% chance of dying from all causes, which brings the "WITH COVID-19" death rate to 0.012%. That is one in about 8,000 so does match your 1 in 6,000 pretty well.

    How about if we bring in the fact that the CDC itself admitted that only 6% of "COVID-19 deaths" are without any co-morbidities? It's on their web site. There are big incentives, for everyone, family, doctors, hospitals to log deaths as from the virus for political and monetary (insurance and government support) reasons.

    Let's talk car wrecks. Though it's a good page, this NHSTA page has no raw numbers, but shows car wreck fatalities for men in that 10-year span age group to be 17.5% of total male car wreck fatalities. I get roughly 22,000 male fatalities yearly, so right around 4,000. I cannot seem to get a good value for the number of Americans in the 25-35 age group, but call it 50,000,000 and your chances of dying in a car crash are under 1 in 10,000.

    OK, point made. Nope, but it's not. This does not account for the co-morbidities in these deaths of guys your age WITH the COVID-19. Guys dying from this disease at your age have other SERIOUS problems. You just told me you don't. Even if you triple the 6% number of cases for which there was no co-morbidity, you've got a greater chance of dying in a car wreck than from the Kung Flu, Andrew.

    The last thing will be anecdotal. I ask you to think of any young people you know that have died of this COVID-19, even officially. Then think if you know anyone who has died in a car wreck. How about the same for people you know who know someone who ...?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @adreadline
    @Andrew M


    But nearly 1/3rd of those involved alcohol, and drugs (legal & illegal) account for another 1/6th.
     
    At least sometimes, you see, the other side in the crash hasn't been drinking or on drugs, wears a seatbelt and drives sensibly, but dies anyway. It just takes one drunk driver for several deaths to result.
  49. @Kent Nationalist
    Seems like a poorly designed bio-weapon

    Replies: @tyrone, @Libre

    OR brilliantly designed ……..depends on the target…….was it a kill strike?, we’ll see in november.

  50. @Buzz Mohawk
    Probably the best argument yet for protecting the vulnerable while letting the rest of us live our lives normally.

    Replies: @guest007

    The issue is that no one in the military works in a nursing home, retirement center, or is around a large of the elderly.

    One should also note that at the same time that President Trump has downplaying masks and wanting to liberate Michigan from lockdown, the Pentagon was mandating masks for all employees and the Defense Commissary were also mandating masks.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @guest007


    The issue is that no one in the military works in a nursing home, retirement center, or is around a large of the elderly.
     
    How would that put the young military people at risk any more than the close quarters they live and work in? Are you claiming that they would be at greater risk among the elderly somehow?

    ... the Pentagon was mandating masks for all employees and the Defense Commissary were also mandating masks.
     
    How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?

    Replies: @Travis, @HA

  51. @Alden
    @Anonymous

    Only about 9,500 of the 200, 000 deaths were from covid alone. The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.

    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @guest007, @Almost Missouri, @Jack D, @Chrisnonymous

    You are intentionally misinterpreting a statistics from the CDC that is based on death certificate data and you are using it in a way that the CDC has stated is incorrect.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @guest007

    Stopp "trolling" everyone who disagrees with you, idiot. People have a right to disagree with you.

  52. @prosa123
    A good way to judge your risk (for men only): stand up straight and look down. If you can't see your feet you're at elevated risk, and not just from Covid-19.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Buzz Mohawk

    There’s a bulge in my pants blocking my view. Am I gonna die?

    • LOL: JMcG
    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
    @Buzz Mohawk

    If you had taken that blue pill and the resulting bulge persists for over four hours, yes, you are going to die.

    , @Almost Missouri
    @Buzz Mohawk

    If swelling persists more than four hours, contact your physician.

    OTOH, if that is your normal reaction to the iSteve comment section, carry on.

    , @Jim Bob Lassiter
    @Buzz Mohawk

    If and when your bulge decides to give it a rest and you then can't see Mr. Wiggily without a hand mirror, then you are at high risk for Covid 19 mortality.

    , @Ancient Briton
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Is that a bananna, or are you just pleased to see me?

  53. @guest007
    @Buzz Mohawk

    The issue is that no one in the military works in a nursing home, retirement center, or is around a large of the elderly.

    One should also note that at the same time that President Trump has downplaying masks and wanting to liberate Michigan from lockdown, the Pentagon was mandating masks for all employees and the Defense Commissary were also mandating masks.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    The issue is that no one in the military works in a nursing home, retirement center, or is around a large of the elderly.

    How would that put the young military people at risk any more than the close quarters they live and work in? Are you claiming that they would be at greater risk among the elderly somehow?

    … the Pentagon was mandating masks for all employees and the Defense Commissary were also mandating masks.

    How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Buzz Mohawk

    masks are useless against COVID , which is one reason so many in the military were infected with CV. Few people realize how obese our military has become over the last 20 years. The obesity rate in the military now exceeds 13% and over 60% of the military is classified as overweight. A significant number of our military men now have type II diabetes.

    Developing diabetes while already serving in the military is not automatic grounds for separation from the military. Several hundred service members are diagnosed with diabetes each year. In 2011, the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center reported that nearly 400,000 of its active members had at least one overweight-related medical diagnosis. https://www.diabetesselfmanagement.com/about-diabetes/general-diabetes-information/diabetes-in-the-military/#:~:text=Diabetes%20in%20the%20Military.%20Military%20service%20members%20with,having%20a%20history%20of%20post-traumatic%20stress%20disorder%20%28PTSD%29%2C

    I would wager that of the 7 COVID deaths in the military this year , the majority were obese or had another condition like cancer. The first member of the military to die from COVID this year was a 57 year-old obese officer who was fighting Lung Cancer. https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/mc-nws-coronavirus-first-military-death-20200331-p4ogar3jazhopiwtn6tg2qmy4u-story.html

    , @HA
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?"

    Wearing masks (and taking basic social distanging precautions) reduces the CFR as well as the transmission rate. (see also this earlier animal study). Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you're more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer few complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on "variolation") but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.

    I've said this before, but anyone who claims that the low CFR we're seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services, or in countries like Switzerland or Japan) is somehow an argument for doing away with such restrictions has just committed a classic Fox Butterfield fallacy (as in, "why are we building more and more prisons even though crime rates are going down?").

    To repeat: if anyone wants to ask "Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?", he should first stop and realize that he just answered his own stupid question.

    Replies: @vhrm, @Kratoklastes, @Chrisnonymous, @Hippopotamusdrome

  54. @Steve Sailer
    @Alden

    To my surprise, the word "comorbidity" doesn't mean co-cause of death it means "another ailment:"

    "the simultaneous presence of two chronic diseases or conditions in a patient."

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Redman

    Look, here’s what it’s all about, in reality, for old people once they get hospitalized or in the shape for which they should be:

    If you’ve dealt with an older family member or friend in the hospital for serious illness (not the same as with young people hurt in a car wreck), you may know how this goes. This one condition requires this treatment, but we can’t do that until he gets his XYZ readings up. For that, we will prescribe drug ABC, which does have a worsening effect on this OTHER condition. Additionally, the same drug, that he really needs to take, has a side effect causing this OTHER problem, which hopefully will not be bad enough to stop us from doing that original treatment we were going to do … It gets pretty sad and/or scary, as things as up in the fashion of a puzzle. Solving the puzzle is the way to get through it all, until something else crops up next month. I hope all you readers can somehow avoid this, but … as opposed to what, right?

    After all that, for some months, if the patient doesn’t make it home, then the cause of death must be logged. What was it, exactly? Note that 2.6 average co-conditions. But, we need a code or two, and “old age” is not one of them.

    (From Peak Stupidity‘s post “6% dying from Kung Flu alone – Vindication, bitchez!”.)

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I agree Achmed - CO-19 is not as dangerous as it looked in the first two months. By far.

    When I first read about Professor Klaus Püschel from Hamburg-Eppendorf, a well-known pathologist, who looked closely into one hundred CO-19 deaths**** and found that none of them had died because of CO-19 (all with it) and almost all of them were older when they died than the average German by the time of his death - it took me a while to accept his findings.

    *** hurting strict government regulations which interdicted (!) such post mortem examinations, because they'd be - - - too dangerous...

    Replies: @J.Ross, @HA

  55. @Achmed E. Newman
    This is not a spam post. I wish everyone would watch the whole thing, but if you just FF right to 23:16 and pause within the next 5 seconds, you'll see a chart of COVID cases and hospitalizations at 16 big universities. The case column has numbers from a hundred and something to over 1,400 (Go Carolina!) The hospitalization column has ZEROES. Yes, ZEROES in every column. Total cases is over 11,000. Of course there is no "deaths" column either.

    What a scam this whole Kung Flu Panic-fest has been!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JqH0Y_jcT4

    Ron Paul is so damn refreshing to listen to. How did a guy with this much perspective and common sense ever make it to Congress? (Grandfathered in?)

    Replies: @theMann

    The Mother of all Scams. It is even worse than the charts show:

    1. There, to date, has been no, as in not one, mapping of “covid-19” under an electron microscope. No chemical structure, no “map” of the Virus. *(My point, along with many others making this point: it doesn’t exist.)
    2. Both the WHO and the CDC’s have an official policy of NEVER doing an autopsy on a covid-19 death.
    3. Death Certificates have been routinely altered, as in fraud committed, two weeks after the original death report is issued. Of course, at that point the body has been cremated or buried, so no way to invalidate the fraudulent Death Certificate.
    4. The head of the CDCs has publicly stated that the Deaths from the (illegal, War Crimes) lockdowns are more than twice the Covid-19 deaths. I have previously posted the video.
    5. The studies that masks don’t work runs to the low hundreds, indeed, they are counterproductive as genuinely unhealthy. By the time people start loosing teeth, getting Asthma, and catching TB it will be a little late for I told you so’s.
    6. From the top down, this tyranny was pre-planned – over one hundred nations with the same Media Lies, church closings, hysterically fear mongering – all of it self evident lies from the beginning, massively coordinated.

    But you know what, I just don’t care any more, because I have realized a fundamental truth. The world is divided into the mass of shit-eaters, and the few who are men. And we just can’t intersect with each other. Let every one of the shit-eaters get what is coming to them, because they do have it coming to them. When you line up for those “vaccines” that turn you into dog-boy and pig-girl, I will laugh out loud watching you turn into something less than human.

    • Replies: @HA
    @theMann

    "No chemical structure, no “map” of the Virus."

    Actually, it was sequenced months ago. That's how German doctors came up with one of the first tests. You don't remember the (quickly quashed) conspiracy claims about how its protein spikes were suspiciously similar to HIV? You don't remember all that work tracking down the different strains of the virus according to how the genetic strains differed? No?

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome (click on the "view display" button).

  56. @Buzz Mohawk
    @prosa123

    There's a bulge in my pants blocking my view. Am I gonna die?

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind, @Almost Missouri, @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Ancient Briton

    If you had taken that blue pill and the resulting bulge persists for over four hours, yes, you are going to die.

  57. @Andrew M
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The overall risk of dying in a motor vehicle accident is 1:6700 in any given year, which sounds similar to Covid-19 in the military. But nearly 1/3rd of those involved alcohol, and drugs (legal & illegal) account for another 1/6th. Another huge chunk is motorcyclists, not car drivers.

    Your chances of dying sober while wearing a seatbelt and driving sensibly in a modern car are considerably lower.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @adreadline

    Andrew, I wouldn’t have been so flippant in my comment if I’d know you would reply civilly and calmly (never rule anything out!)

    If you are between 25 and 35 y/o, Andrew, the CDC data says that the total percentage of deaths WITH COVID-19 of people your age is 9%, but that’s not accounting for co-morbidities. They say (look here) someone in that age group (I’m assuming, cause you didn’t say) has a 0.13% chance of dying from all causes, which brings the “WITH COVID-19” death rate to 0.012%. That is one in about 8,000 so does match your 1 in 6,000 pretty well.

    How about if we bring in the fact that the CDC itself admitted that only 6% of “COVID-19 deaths” are without any co-morbidities? It’s on their web site. There are big incentives, for everyone, family, doctors, hospitals to log deaths as from the virus for political and monetary (insurance and government support) reasons.

    Let’s talk car wrecks. Though it’s a good page, this NHSTA page has no raw numbers, but shows car wreck fatalities for men in that 10-year span age group to be 17.5% of total male car wreck fatalities. I get roughly 22,000 male fatalities yearly, so right around 4,000. I cannot seem to get a good value for the number of Americans in the 25-35 age group, but call it 50,000,000 and your chances of dying in a car crash are under 1 in 10,000.

    OK, point made. Nope, but it’s not. This does not account for the co-morbidities in these deaths of guys your age WITH the COVID-19. Guys dying from this disease at your age have other SERIOUS problems. You just told me you don’t. Even if you triple the 6% number of cases for which there was no co-morbidity, you’ve got a greater chance of dying in a car wreck than from the Kung Flu, Andrew.

    The last thing will be anecdotal. I ask you to think of any young people you know that have died of this COVID-19, even officially. Then think if you know anyone who has died in a car wreck. How about the same for people you know who know someone who …?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Not out of moderation yet, but I see one error involving the car wreck #s. I should have used the total number of men between 25-35 (inclusive on one end or the other). Therefore that'd make the odds closer to 1 in 5,000, but then I pulled that 50,000,000 out of my ass, meaning ~ 25,000,000 males in that group. If you or anyone has those numbers, I'd like to know, as all the stuff I've been reading keeps breaking up the age groups more coarsely than 10-year ones.

  58. @Buzz Mohawk
    @guest007


    The issue is that no one in the military works in a nursing home, retirement center, or is around a large of the elderly.
     
    How would that put the young military people at risk any more than the close quarters they live and work in? Are you claiming that they would be at greater risk among the elderly somehow?

    ... the Pentagon was mandating masks for all employees and the Defense Commissary were also mandating masks.
     
    How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?

    Replies: @Travis, @HA

    masks are useless against COVID , which is one reason so many in the military were infected with CV. Few people realize how obese our military has become over the last 20 years. The obesity rate in the military now exceeds 13% and over 60% of the military is classified as overweight. A significant number of our military men now have type II diabetes.

    Developing diabetes while already serving in the military is not automatic grounds for separation from the military. Several hundred service members are diagnosed with diabetes each year. In 2011, the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center reported that nearly 400,000 of its active members had at least one overweight-related medical diagnosis. https://www.diabetesselfmanagement.com/about-diabetes/general-diabetes-information/diabetes-in-the-military/#:~:text=Diabetes%20in%20the%20Military.%20Military%20service%20members%20with,having%20a%20history%20of%20post-traumatic%20stress%20disorder%20%28PTSD%29%2C

    I would wager that of the 7 COVID deaths in the military this year , the majority were obese or had another condition like cancer. The first member of the military to die from COVID this year was a 57 year-old obese officer who was fighting Lung Cancer. https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/mc-nws-coronavirus-first-military-death-20200331-p4ogar3jazhopiwtn6tg2qmy4u-story.html

  59. @Frank G
    Also the military doesn’t have any incentive to lie about COVID deaths as the private sector.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @Hibernian, @Abolish_public_education, @Piglet

    • Troll: guest007

    Full-time troll asserts right to identify others as trolls.

    Too bad Unz hasn’t come up with a way to keep the litter out of the comment section.

  60. 2020 is the year when the Western world lost its collective mind. Covid panic and systemic racism beliefs.

  61. @MC
    The numbers Biden cited are very close the numbers for Michigan, not the Military. He probably misread.

    Replies: @El Dato, @anon, @Redman

    That was the exact excuse his campaign gave to CNN. But doesn’t anyone check his notes before he gives these speeches? It’s not like they must feel comfortable with him going off script.

    So he mistook “Michigan” for the “Military” and then tried to make a big emotional point out of it in a speech. (not real clear what point he was even trying to make). The voters are supposed to be comfortable with that excuse?

    This guy couldn’t pass a 3rd grade math test at this point and he wants to be President. Great example for our kids who are constantly being told how important STEM is.

  62. @Buzz Mohawk
    @prosa123

    There's a bulge in my pants blocking my view. Am I gonna die?

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind, @Almost Missouri, @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Ancient Briton

    If swelling persists more than four hours, contact your physician.

    OTOH, if that is your normal reaction to the iSteve comment section, carry on.

  63. @anon
    @MC

    Well to be fair the words are very similar.

    This'll be fun when he's deciding which countries to bomb.

    Replies: @Redman, @Ancient Briton

    If there was any comedy left in America, someone could do quite the parody of Uncle Joe. But the left is just too afraid of it catching on and influencing young voters.

    Someone could do an old SNL Emily Litella skit, but as Biden.

  64. @Alden
    @Anonymous

    Only about 9,500 of the 200, 000 deaths were from covid alone. The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.

    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @guest007, @Almost Missouri, @Jack D, @Chrisnonymous

    The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.

    Holy smokes, is that true? If so, that alone tells that the whole COVID Pandemic™ was a tempest in a teapot.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Almost Missouri

    In that CDC release of data (which included figures they had received up through 8/29, since updated to 9/5), in only about 6% of "COVID19" deaths was COVID19 listed as the only cause of death. Among the remaining 94%, for which other causes of death were listed, the average number of co-morbidities was 2.6. As Steve pointed out, "co-morbidity" does not mean cause of death but rather "underlying health condition", such as diabetes, obesity, heart-disease, chronic lung-disease, etc.

    Among the additional causes of death, "cardiac arrest" was listed as a cause of death in nearly 22,000 cases. Now, some people probably contacted SARS-COV-2, came down with COVID19, got very sick, and then died of heart-attacks, so Coronavirus was definitely a contributing cause or even the main cause. But out of those 22,000, how many people just died of heart-attacks - from, for example, being stressed out due to the 24/7 diet of Corona fear-porn - and were subsequently found to have Coronavirus, or even were just "presumed" to have it (as that is good enough according to CDC guidelines), but Coronavirus didn't really have anything to do with their death? A lot, I suspect.

    Another category in that list is "Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events", coming in at 5,692 cases. These are your falls, drug overdoses and - yes, guest007 - motorcycle accidents (that really happened).

    So it isn't that only about 10,000 people died of Coronavirus. It is more than that - considerably more. But probably not as many as claimed. And, so far at least, entirely in line with the numbers of people who died during the Asian Flu pandemic of 1957/58 and the Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1968/69.

    So - yes - I agree with you that it is a tempest in a teapot. Actually, it's been more than that - a catastophic completely crazy freakout.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  65. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    VOTE FOR BIDEN, AND THE PANDEMIC MAGICALLY STOPS ON NOV. 5th!!

    VOTE TWICE FOR BIDEN, AND THE RIOTS AND THE LOCKDOWNS STOP ON NOV. 5th!!

    VOTE FIVE TIMES BY MAIL FOR BIDEN, AND WE STOP THE RIOTS, AND BRING BACK THE ECONOMY!! (Whispers offstage). Huh? OKAY, WE BRING BACK PART OF THE ECONOMY!!

    WE PROMISE: GET DOWN WITH THE SHAKEDOWN, AND WE'LL GO DOWNTOWN!

    Obey. Your. Master!

    At all costs, no matter what, the goyim must never again be permitted to regain control of their country. If they ever figure out what we've done to them, how long and carefully we planned it, and that it was us, all along... Oy, it'll be Annuddah Shoah. But this time a real one, not the kind that we make up.

    Replies: @Neuday, @Svigor

    At all costs, no matter what, the goyim must never again be permitted to regain control of their country. If they ever figure out what we’ve done to them, how long and carefully we planned it, and that it was us, all along… Oy, it’ll be Annuddah Shoah. But this time a real one, not the kind that we make up.

    Let’s see . . . there are about 330,000,000 people in the U.S., and it’s often reported that Jews are about 2% of the population, so that would be . . . a little over 6 million. So I guess it’s time.

  66. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    Real number might be 4x greater than 200,000? I.e., a million?

    Even though there have been just 500,000 deaths total this year in this country?

    I don’t think so.

    • Replies: @Pendragon
    @Ben tillman

    No, it's actually around 1,903,360 dead for the year as of the latest CDC number.

    Replies: @ben tillman

  67. @Steve Sailer
    @Alden

    To my surprise, the word "comorbidity" doesn't mean co-cause of death it means "another ailment:"

    "the simultaneous presence of two chronic diseases or conditions in a patient."

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Redman

    This is true, but in courts (where I practice) the issue of co-morbidities is quite significant in parsing true causes of death.

    COD is often a highly subjective exercise with differing opinions among medical experts. Scientific consensus on COD is rarer than one would imagine. And with a novel virus, I would think the divergence among experts would be more pronounced.

  68. I can’t believe CNN “fact checked” anything coming from a Democrat, especially Joe Biden.

  69. @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder
    @Anonymous


    There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater)
     
    Probably 25% of that. Ever heard of the concept of excess deaths?

    The vast majority of covid victims were going to die anyway, and many of the rest were killed by Andrew Cuomo demanding that they be intubated and/or placed in nursing homes.


    About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?
     
    So what you're saying is that either you didn't read Steve's argument, or you couldn't understand it, or both.

    Replies: @Svigor, @HA

    Yeah, counting problems are unavoidable. And I tend to agree with you that here they’re probably overestimating. I also think that the further you get down the list of “developed nations,” the bigger the shift from overestimating toward underestimating. This is why the judenpresse’s statistical comparisons between USA and places like Brazil or “the world” are so deceptive, even when they aren’t openly innumerate (raw totals rather than rates to compare countries with wildly different populations).

  70. @Andrew M
    As a young fit & healthy male (admittedly not military-grade fitness), a 1 in 6000 risk is still quite worrying. I hope the DoD releases a report about those seven deaths; it would be interesting to know if they had complicating factors.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Achmed E. Newman, @Thatgirl, @AndrewR, @Anon, @Piglet

    At the beginning of this whole mess, I heard an epidemiologist put the numbers in perspective. He said that, if Covid ended up having the highest case fatality rate for young people that was thought at the time, which was 3%, the average 25-year old in the United States would have the life expectancy of a 25-year old in 1975.

  71. @anon
    @Anonymous

    14,500 US Covid deaths age for age brackets roughly corresponding to military service (15-54 years old) out of population about 157 million. source

    1.4 million active duty in military. So proportional representation would get you 129 deaths.

    Once you factor in that they've selectively filtered out pre-existing conditions, which has some kind of Pareto Law effect and the fact that median service member age is on the lower side of the age brackets used above (age effect on mortality also Pareto)-- you're getting to a point where 7 deaths doesn't sound that unreasonable.

    Replies: @J, @Almost Missouri

    So a million-odd people living and working at close quarters, who get out and about far more than the average, and only 7 deaths …

    = 0.0005% mortality rate on a population that by circumstance and behavior should be among the most at risk.

    This means the US COVID mortality (0.06%) is overwhelmingly mortality of the already morbid.

  72. @George
    Sturgis: 365,979 attended, 5 deaths due to crashes, 1 death due to covid, $12 billion in public health something or other

    Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was 'superspreading event' that cost public health $12.2 billion: analysis

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/515453-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-was-superspreading-event-that-cost-public

    The first known Covid-19 death linked to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is in Minnesota

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/health/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-covid-death/index.html

    Sturgis 2020 In Numbers: Attendance Only Down Slightly, Crashes Up

    https://www.rideapart.com/articles/439496/sturgis-2020-attendance-crime-numbers/

    Replies: @Coemgen, @Piglet

    When was the Sturgis Rally?

    When did this paper get published?

    Can you say: rush to judgement?

  73. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @Andrew M

    Then you should never leave your house. The odds of a 25 year-old man dying in any given year is about t1 in 500. The odds of a man in the military dying in any given year is not much different , about 1 in 450

    Replies: @Coemgen

    About 1 in 620 according to this table: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

  74. anon[446] • Disclaimer says:
    @J
    @anon

    Agree. But the issue is that the virus causes a bad respiratory disease. Even if it does not kill or is curable - it is a pandemic. The fear it causes may be exaggerated and it has broken the economy.

    Replies: @anon, @Libre

    But the issue is that the virus causes a bad respiratory disease.

    No, that’s not correct. SARS-2 is a circulatory disease that is spread via the respiratory route. It causes blood vessels to leak. This can lead to scary but not too dangerous symptoms such as “COVID toe” blood blisters or “COVID tongue” spots. It can also lead to fluid leaking into the lungs blocking oxygen exchange and bleeding in the brain leading to strokes.

    Some damage can be done in the heart, but it’s still not even clear how much – maybe only the very sick, maybe not. I have not yet found out if anyone has even asked what SARS does to kidney / liver.

    • Agree: Chrisnonymous
  75. @anonymous
    @Andrew M

    Exactly. It means if you are in good fitness and 30 year old and the virus is allowed to run wild there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying within a year from this? Also I would like to know how many people have long term bad effects. It's absolutely bullshit to use his statistic to think this thing is no big deal.

    Replies: @Thatgirl, @Kratoklastes

    There is a whole world of possible thoughts between “no big deal” and “end of the world.” In addition, there is a whole world of possible responses between “allowing virus to run wild” and “locking down everyone indefinitely.”

    It is only by recognizing the actual risks to different populations that can we begin to tailor a practical solution to a virus that quite possibly will be with us for many years.

    Or we could just continue to run around with our hair on fire…

  76. Anon[277] • Disclaimer says:

    Wall Street has quietly known that COVID has been overblown for awhile now. At least since the healthcare companies released second quarter results in late July.

    The media assured us that hospitals were overwhelmed. And yet Q2 hospital admissions (April 1 – June 30) were down 13% for HCA. Down 20% for Tenet.

    How about health insurers? Medical claims paid were down more than 10% for the large health insurers. Utilization was down because people were encouraged to stay away from hosspitals and doctors’ offices, but there was no offsetting surge from COVID patients.

    And here’s an interesting statement from one health insurer’s conference call with analysts:

    Through the end of June, we have paid approximately $550 million associated with COVID claims. This compares to $221 million we discussed on our Investor Day. One thing to highlight, the cost we have categorized as COVID cost include all the claim codes consistent with CDC guidelines. This includes costs that are not associated with confirmed positive cases and they include costs that are not related to COVID at all.

    COVID costs consistent with CDC guidelines may not be related to positive cases or COVID cases at all. So COVID costs are inflated. This company paid out $41 billion in medical claims in the first half of 2020. Using the overstated number, COVID costs were still less than 1.4% of all medical claims paid from Jan 1 through June 30. If most of the sickest and therefore most expensive cases are behind us, then this number is sure to go down.

    Transcript of the conference call is here.
    https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/07/28/centene-corp-cnc-q2-2020-earnings-call-transcript.aspx

    • Thanks: JMcG
  77. @Frank G
    Also the military doesn’t have any incentive to lie about COVID deaths as the private sector.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @Hibernian, @Abolish_public_education, @Piglet

    Cue the leftists telling us the military has the biggest incentive to lie. (The relative youth and good health of military personnel, along with a good health care system for those who are infected, plus military discipline and punishment for anyone not following precautionary rules is the obvious explanation for the low number of fatalities.)

  78. @Andrew M
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The overall risk of dying in a motor vehicle accident is 1:6700 in any given year, which sounds similar to Covid-19 in the military. But nearly 1/3rd of those involved alcohol, and drugs (legal & illegal) account for another 1/6th. Another huge chunk is motorcyclists, not car drivers.

    Your chances of dying sober while wearing a seatbelt and driving sensibly in a modern car are considerably lower.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @adreadline

    But nearly 1/3rd of those involved alcohol, and drugs (legal & illegal) account for another 1/6th.

    At least sometimes, you see, the other side in the crash hasn’t been drinking or on drugs, wears a seatbelt and drives sensibly, but dies anyway. It just takes one drunk driver for several deaths to result.

  79. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    VOTE FOR BIDEN, AND THE PANDEMIC MAGICALLY STOPS ON NOV. 5th!!

    VOTE TWICE FOR BIDEN, AND THE RIOTS AND THE LOCKDOWNS STOP ON NOV. 5th!!

    VOTE FIVE TIMES BY MAIL FOR BIDEN, AND WE STOP THE RIOTS, AND BRING BACK THE ECONOMY!! (Whispers offstage). Huh? OKAY, WE BRING BACK PART OF THE ECONOMY!!

    WE PROMISE: GET DOWN WITH THE SHAKEDOWN, AND WE'LL GO DOWNTOWN!

    Obey. Your. Master!

    At all costs, no matter what, the goyim must never again be permitted to regain control of their country. If they ever figure out what we've done to them, how long and carefully we planned it, and that it was us, all along... Oy, it'll be Annuddah Shoah. But this time a real one, not the kind that we make up.

    Replies: @Neuday, @Svigor

    Never again for the first time, bigot!

    The numbers Biden cited are very close the numbers for Michigan, not the Military. He probably misread.

    That makes perfect sense in a non compos mentis, “oh the president merely pressed the red button instead of the cancel button, oh well” kind of way.

    This’ll be fun when he’s deciding which countries to bomb.

    Let’s hope he doesn’t confuse anything else with “US military.”

  80. @JimDandy
    Were any of the people in the military who died of Covid also, like, shot through the head by an enemy bullet or beheaded in a helicopter crash or anything like that?

    Replies: @Polynikes, @Travis

    Not a bad thought given how many state health depts have been negligent. Looking at those rates, I’d guess they are actually deaths “from” the ‘rona. Technically, I suppose it’s possible a few of them were active duty guys recuperating in the hospital from something else when they got it, but I doubt it.

  81. @ScarletNumber
    Yes, it's almost like the people dying from COVID19 were going to die sooner rather than later anyway.

    Replies: @Polynikes

    Correct. Places like Sweden where they instituted little formal lockdowns are approaching no excess mortality for the year. Places with heavy lockdowns are much more complicated on the excess death front because strict lockdowns have likely lead to many deaths. Ethical Skeptic already has the “years of life lost” from the lockdowns greater than from the ‘rona.

    • Agree: Travis
    • Replies: @HA
    @Polynikes

    "Places with heavy lockdowns are much more complicated on the excess death front because strict lockdowns have likely lead to many deaths."

    But fewer deaths overall -- somehow people like you always manage to forget that part.

    If the lockdowns were ending more than they were prolonging, then easing the lockdowns wouldn't have caused a "second hump", i.e., an increase in the death rate (even though it was summertime when the corona-truthers were assuring us "the virus won't transmit. Yeah, baby!" and even though we were "almost at herd immunity", and whatever other pipe dreams were being floated about by the just-a-flu bros).

    So yes, the lockdowns are causing deaths in some cases (suicide, etc.) and reducing it for others (delaying or canceling elective surgeries, etc.) but given the coronavirus deaths they're preventing, you need to stop pretending they've taken more lives than they've saved. Sweden, of all places, demonstrates that, given its death toll in comparison with its neighbors.

    You can't have it both ways. These magic/tragic lockdowns that increase the death toll when they're applied, and then cause another increase when they're eased are about as believable as crazy old grandpa’s barefoot walks to and from school in the bitter rain and snow when he was young, that went uphill both ways. It didn't happen like that, grandpa. That's about as believable as this magic/tragic dirt that liberals claim is the main reason black people are being held back.

    Replies: @Travis, @Polynikes

  82. The NY Times covers for Sleepy Joe:

    At one point, Mr. Biden appeared to mix up the approximate number of military service members who have died of the coronavirus and the number of people in Michigan who have died from it. As he read from notes, he said that 6,000 service members had died of the virus; in fact, the number is seven.

    When Trump misstates something, he is lying – “Trump FALSELY stated X”. But when Sleep Joe gets it wrong, he just mixed up some numbers. He’s not senile or anything, he just made a mistake reading “notes” off of the teleprompter . Could happen to anyone.

    If Joe had stopped to think (not something that he is known for) he would have understood that 6,000 could not possibly meet the smell test. The US military has approx. 1.3 million active duty personnel, or .36% of the US population. Total Covid deaths are (allegedly) around 190,000, so even if military members were dying at the same rate at the rest of the population (unlikely since the general population includes lots of elderly and the military doesn’t) they would have experienced around 700 deaths. So Joe’s number was an order of magnitude too high even if you did not account for age and health status. 6,000 deaths would have been more than 3% of all Covid deaths. If he had said 600, he still would have been way wrong, but it would have been a somewhat plausible error. 6,000 was so far beyond the realm of the possible that he should have asked someone to double check that number before reading it off the teleprompter. The fact that it made it to the teleprompter shows that innumeracy in the Biden staff runs deep.

    The actual # of deaths confirms what we have known for a long time. Covid kills mostly the elderly and also some (mostly minority) middle aged people with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and obesity. On very rare occasions it will kill a younger person formerly in good health. Since the military consists mostly of the latter group, Covid deaths were rare. In my county of around 800,000 people, Covid has killed zero people under age 30 and zero non-blacks under age 40 (2 blacks in the 30-39 category died). The highest # of deaths were in the 80-89 decile and the 2nd highest was in the 90+ group, these two groups accounting for more than half of all deaths.

    We destroyed the entire US economy mostly to save some old people, many of whom are in nursing homes and on their last legs already. Maybe this is the right thing to do anyway, but based on speeches like Biden’s, I don’t think that there is any popular awareness that that is what we are really doing. The MSM will highlight a rare death of a young person and make that seem as if he or she is a typical victim. I’ll bet that if you asked people what the average age of a covid victim is, no one would guess 80.

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Jack D



    he would have understood that 6,000 could not possibly meet the smell test

     

    https://media.breitbart.com/media/2019/03/Biden-Hair-Kissing-200x150.jpg
  83. That table would be even more interesting with the number of people in each category added along with the resulting case rates.

    US Active duty military 1.3 million
    https://www.governing.com/gov-data/public-workforce-salaries/military-civilian-active-duty-employee-workforce-numbers-by-state.html

    Military dependents 1.6 million
    https://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Infographic/2018-demographics-active-duty-families.pdf

    DOD civilians 750 thousand
    Service Contractors 560 thousand
    https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-military-forces-fy-2020-sof-civilians-contractors-and-nukes

    Category | Cases | # People | Case Rate
    Military | 40,026 | 1,300,000 | 3.08%
    Civilian | 8,882 | 750,000 | 1.18%
    Dependent | 5,339 | 1,600,000 | 0.33%
    Contractor | 3,811 | 560,000 | 0.68%
    Total | 58,058 | 4,210,000 | 1.38%

    Those case rates seem awfully low to me. I wonder what the true infection rates are.

    • Replies: @anon
    @res

    Another set of implausible data:

    U.S. has passed Italy in Deaths per million.

    Peru: 915
    Belgium: 855
    Spain: 635
    Chile: 615
    U.K. 612
    Bolivia; 611
    Ecuador: 608
    Brazil: 605
    USA: 591

    Looks like Covid is settling down in Latin America.

  84. @guest007
    @Alden

    You are intentionally misinterpreting a statistics from the CDC that is based on death certificate data and you are using it in a way that the CDC has stated is incorrect.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Stopp “trolling” everyone who disagrees with you, idiot. People have a right to disagree with you.

  85. @Frank G
    Also the military doesn’t have any incentive to lie about COVID deaths as the private sector.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @Hibernian, @Abolish_public_education, @Piglet

    The last time I heard, mil hospitals had statistically significant, lower rates for “emergency” surgical procedures, such as C-section.

    The most obvious explanation was that mil doctors had no financial or defensive incentive to operate.

    Remember that when a Porsche-driving, board certified specialist warns you’ll be “dead by morning.”

  86. @Almost Missouri
    @Alden


    The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.
     
    Holy smokes, is that true? If so, that alone tells that the whole COVID Pandemic™ was a tempest in a teapot.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    In that CDC release of data (which included figures they had received up through 8/29, since updated to 9/5), in only about 6% of “COVID19” deaths was COVID19 listed as the only cause of death. Among the remaining 94%, for which other causes of death were listed, the average number of co-morbidities was 2.6. As Steve pointed out, “co-morbidity” does not mean cause of death but rather “underlying health condition”, such as diabetes, obesity, heart-disease, chronic lung-disease, etc.

    Among the additional causes of death, “cardiac arrest” was listed as a cause of death in nearly 22,000 cases. Now, some people probably contacted SARS-COV-2, came down with COVID19, got very sick, and then died of heart-attacks, so Coronavirus was definitely a contributing cause or even the main cause. But out of those 22,000, how many people just died of heart-attacks – from, for example, being stressed out due to the 24/7 diet of Corona fear-porn – and were subsequently found to have Coronavirus, or even were just “presumed” to have it (as that is good enough according to CDC guidelines), but Coronavirus didn’t really have anything to do with their death? A lot, I suspect.

    Another category in that list is “Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events”, coming in at 5,692 cases. These are your falls, drug overdoses and – yes, guest007 – motorcycle accidents (that really happened).

    So it isn’t that only about 10,000 people died of Coronavirus. It is more than that – considerably more. But probably not as many as claimed. And, so far at least, entirely in line with the numbers of people who died during the Asian Flu pandemic of 1957/58 and the Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1968/69.

    So – yes – I agree with you that it is a tempest in a teapot. Actually, it’s been more than that – a catastophic completely crazy freakout.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Mr. Anon

    Thank you, Mr. Anon, and I agree with all you wrote.

    My point with Alden's comment was that in one simple statistic (average US age at "normal" death 78; average US age at COVID death 78.5) the overreaction of the lockdown is made obvious.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  87. I just had a happy thought – or maybe just a brain fart. Problem with grasping the elephant of covid in the US is that we are too close to it. Too many variables. But what about Israel? A certain percentage of commenters here explain almost every nefarious occurence to be caused by the great Sanhedrin plot. Lock-down in the US is good for the bankers/jews, etc. etc. that sort of thing.

    Let’s look abroad at Sweden and Denmark and how they dealt with covid and the temporal reciprocity of how their respective measures worked. But maybe even in Sweden and Denmark, in their diametrically opposed courses of action, they too did what they did, as puppets, what their jew masters wanted them to do, etc. etc.

    One country alone is dealing with the covid pandemic on their own hook, not beholden to the jews, the Rothschilds, etc. and that is Israel. https://www.debka.com/mivzak/covid-19-infection-breaks-another-record-3904-in-one-day/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=covid-19-infection-breaks-another-record-3904-in-one-day

    Israel has about 9 million inhabitants. I suggest they are the best guinea pig dataset for understanding covid as time goes on and, soon, the efficacy of vacines.

    • Replies: @Anonymouse
    @Anonymouse

    Israel is said to be having a covid breakout. And Jewish New Year and the Day of Atonement is near. And their large Orthodox population is not amenable to lockdowns, masks, social-distancing no more than the Orthodox in Brooklyn. They hold large wedding parties and funerals and their infection rate is quite high.

    Update of 9/11 from the Israeli Debka website -

    A full two-week lockdown starts next week subject to cabinet approval
    Sep 11, 2020 @ 11:29

    The first of the three-stage closure is due to begin next week before the New Year festival, during which non-essential work and business will be barred, including restaurants, bars and entertainment. Shopping malls and schools will be closed, except for remote instruction. Movement outside the home will be confined to 500 meters, excepting only shopping for essentials. Prayers and other gatherings will follow the Gamzu prescriptions of 10 people indoors and 20 outside.

    Certain relaxations will beintrdouced in the second stage, with business allowed to operate during the day and movement allowed outside the home – although not from town to town. The third stage will depend on the success of the first two in containing the emergency of the out-of-control rise of coronavirus infection. The full cabinet is due to approve this lockdown proposal on Sunday.

  88. @Alden
    @Anonymous

    Only about 9,500 of the 200, 000 deaths were from covid alone. The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.

    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @guest007, @Almost Missouri, @Jack D, @Chrisnonymous

    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.

    This is not at all surprising given the average age of death – how many 80 year olds DON’T have some major health problem of one sort or another? However, our medical establishment has gotten quite good at prolonging the life (if not always the quality of life) of people with even severe ailments. Lots of people linger for years and even decades with COPD, diabetes, heart disease, etc., kept alive by medications and various interventions. COVID disrupted this considerably. Oldsters that might have lingered on for 5 or 10 more years (or until the next big flu season) had their expiration dates pushed up by years in many cases.

    This doesn’t mean that only 9,500 deaths were from Covid – in fact it means the opposite – that 9,500 people with well above average health were taken by it.

  89. @Anonymous
    Biden is the New Mondale. Only worse. Because Mondale was mostly just a square. Nice guy. Wacky liberal.

    But Biden is a slimeball liar and plagiarist. Crooked politician. Always pretended to be the folksy man of the people but could never pull it off. Got bounced out of the primaries twice when he was in his prime.

    Looks like Biden will lose MN. He is 10 points behind where 2016 Hillary was in Twin Cities poll.

    Like a lot of Senators Biden has never run anything in his life. No executive experience. His first big exec hiring decision: Kamala Harris. She is a disaster.

    Also Biden is a D.C. insider. This is Bob Dole John Kerry John McCain etc all over again. D.C. INSIDERS NEVER BEAT INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS.

    The only way to beat Trump was with an outsider who portrayed Trump as the corrupt insider. Incumbent HW Bush 92 lost to outsider Clinton. (Obviously Mondale was the exact wrong outsider in 84.)

    Biden losing will make four in a row insider senators failing against the incumbent potus.

    I blame a lack of brainpower in the current Dem party. I can't think of a single scary talented Dem strategist. The equivalent Ragin' Cajun or David Axelrod are nowhere to be found.

    Replies: @International Jew, @epebble, @AndrewR

    Some interesting survey:

    A 51% majority said Trump is mentally unfit to be president, while 49% answered that he is fit to hold the job. A similar share, by a 52% to 48% margin, responded that Biden is mentally unfit to be president.

    Voters had more confidence in the presidential hopefuls’ physical fitness to hold the White House. A 52% majority said the 74-year-old Trump is physically fit to be president, and 54% said the same about Biden, who is 77.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/2020-election-news-voters-see-trump-biden-as-mentally-unfit-to-be-president.html

  90. @El Dato
    Tory Sovietism in the UK:

    Serious health führer Matt Hancock is serious.

    The UK government’s new Covid rules are authoritarian and arbitrary. How much longer will people put up with this?


    The health secretary, who also seems to have appointed himself commissioner of the fun police, explained to the adoring inmates of Airstrip One that: “one of the pieces of feedback we had, including from the police, was that we needed the rules to be super simple so that everybody knows what they are, and now this will be rigorously enforced by the police. This is really simple. Gatherings are OK, they should be socially distanced of course, but groups only of up to six.”

    They may be really simple, Mr Hancock, but far more striking than their simplicity is their earth-shattering stupidity. The new restrictions are being introduced in response to a steep rise in coronavirus cases. Not deaths, not hospitalisations, but cases [this probably means, someone's test was positive, not that someone is ill, as is the custom in 2020]. This rise in cases has, astonishingly, coincided with an increase in testing, but the fact that if you go looking for something you might find more of it doesn’t seem to have crossed the minds of the geniuses at the Department of Health.

    Despite that little nugget of information passing them by, they have identified some situations where it is apparently fine for more than six people to congregate. These include schools and workplaces, ‘Covid-secure’ weddings, funerals and organised team sports.
     

    "6 meetings and a funeral - the new COVID Video!"

    Well, maybe "6" is the key number of some computer simulation above which the UK goes critical. I suppose that's it.


    The devolved administrations in Wales and Scotland seem to be having a competition to be even more ridiculous than the absolute shower in Westminster, and the MSM continue to breathlessly report every case of coronavirus without ever providing the context of how ill any of the people who have it are.
     

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    The CDC tells people to stay 6 ft. apart. In Europe the “authorities” tell people to stay 1.5 meters apart, which is just under 5 ft. Why don’t they say 1.8 meters? The arbitrariness of it indicates it’s all bulls**t. Likewise the deal with face coverings. Cloth masks are fine. N95 masks are okay now, but used to not be okay, because only health care professionals were supposed to have them as they are precious. The fact that there is an enormous difference between homemade cloth masks, bandanas, paper surgical masks, and N95 masks makes no never mind. Even plastic face-shields are okay, despite the fact that they they are completely useless in terms of filtering out aerosol droplets. It is health security theater.

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Mr. Anon

    6' because when you coof the spit goes 6'. They did a study.

    What if you just withdraw 6' to coof then go back? What if you coof into your shirt? What if you're not coofing at all?

  91. OT: Looks like former Theranos head and former iSteve Poster Girl Elizabeth Holmes will be trying the not guilty because crazy due to trauma or victimization defense.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-theranos-ceo-holmes-puts-160057570.html

  92. @Ben tillman
    @Anonymous

    Real number might be 4x greater than 200,000? I.e., a million?

    Even though there have been just 500,000 deaths total this year in this country?

    I don’t think so.

    Replies: @Pendragon

    No, it’s actually around 1,903,360 dead for the year as of the latest CDC number.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    @Pendragon

    Yes, you are right. Thank you.

  93. @Buzz Mohawk
    @guest007


    The issue is that no one in the military works in a nursing home, retirement center, or is around a large of the elderly.
     
    How would that put the young military people at risk any more than the close quarters they live and work in? Are you claiming that they would be at greater risk among the elderly somehow?

    ... the Pentagon was mandating masks for all employees and the Defense Commissary were also mandating masks.
     
    How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?

    Replies: @Travis, @HA

    “How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?”

    Wearing masks (and taking basic social distanging precautions) reduces the CFR as well as the transmission rate. (see also this earlier animal study). Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you’re more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer few complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on “variolation”) but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.

    I’ve said this before, but anyone who claims that the low CFR we’re seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services, or in countries like Switzerland or Japan) is somehow an argument for doing away with such restrictions has just committed a classic Fox Butterfield fallacy (as in, “why are we building more and more prisons even though crime rates are going down?”).

    To repeat: if anyone wants to ask “Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?”, he should first stop and realize that he just answered his own stupid question.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @HA


    Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you’re more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer fewer complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on “variolation”) but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.
     
    Yes, i tend to believe this. For example the death of those poor Chinese doctors and nurses in their 20s and 30s who died early on is consistent with their having gotten large doses over a short period since there's "no way" they would have died now.

    However IFR is also pretty low (though infection rate is pretty high) among the segments of urban society that aren't following most of the rules.


    So my impression is that the bulk of those CFR/IFR reduction benefits of reducing the dose of exposure would be achieved at a relatively small fraction of the level of restrictions that we have now.
    Mainly:
    mask up:
    - in healthcare settings, esp. around people with respiratory symptoms.
    - in nursing homes.
    - on public transit (and increase ventilation and try to reduce congestion)

    close/restrict:
    - sweaty night clubs
    - concerts and sports events, maybe maga-church services
    (and mask, lower density , increase ventilation at the ones that ARE allowed)


    Basically take the liberal line on drugs or pregnancy: "harm reduction" > "prohibition"

    Replies: @HA

    , @Kratoklastes
    @HA


    if anyone wants to ask “Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?”, he should first stop and realize that he just answered his own stupid question.
     
    Doomers and government whiplickers ought to ask themselves: how often are you less than 6 feet from a stranger for long enough to get a decent dose?.

    In Australia "the science" says you've got to be in close casual proximity for 15 minutes - without a face-nappy - to get a dose that raises your infection risk. (That 15 minutes is a nonsense number, but it's their number)[1]

    Most infectees will, in any case, remain asymptomatic; some small proportion will get ill to varying degrees of severity, and a vanishingly-small number of previously-healthy people will be hospitalised... of which, almost none will die.

    As you add risk overlays - metabolic syndrome, pulmonary and respiratory disease, immune-compromise... and most of all 'age > 75' - all risks increase; it remains that if you're not an occupant in an age care home you're very unlikely to die. ("Age > 75" is not an independent risk factor - it's just that other risk factors are present in a larger proportion of the elderly, and at more severe levels. Healthy 75 year olds experience about the same disease progression as healthy 40 year olds).

    What we have observed is the normal pattern of spread of a relatively low-mortality virus - whose lethality was hyped by a factor of ten by serial doom-huckster Fauci in March (and his fuckup was used as an input by others like Ferguson).

    Everywhere it has been measured, death tolls ramped up, peaked and declined to triviality along paths that aligned with with a moderate-lethality, moderately-infectious disease.

    The thing about hyping the lethality of a thing, is that it lowers the bar: whatever you do, death rates will be lower than expected - so you can declare that your decisions were successful.

    Even deplorable fuckups - like forcing corona-positive aged care patients back into care homes[2] - don't raise the death toll enough to touch the initial over-hyped level.

    So at the end of the day, the tax-eating hucksters get to do a victory lap and claim that without them we would all be dying in the street, with bubbles of pink sputum frothing at the corners of our mouths.

    [1] Obviously, getting sneezed on directly by a patient in the throes of dying from respiratory illness is a very different event from standing near someone who is breathing, but happens to have contracted SARS-nCov2. Nobody's saying that hospital staff shouldn't practice infection control.

    [2] that policy was undertaken in both the US (particularly NY) and in the UK: it is responsible for the lion's share of all deaths -whether mis-measured or not.

    'Clear out the hospitals to prepare for the tsunami of severe cases' killed tens of thousands of elderly people, and the entire decision-making apparatus that generated that policy should be executed.

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @HA

    I live in an urban area in Japan.

    My gym opened again a couple months ago, and I have been going for about 6 weeks as have many other members. There is a standard security theater temperature checks and masks during workouts, but people use benches and weights next to each other and in the locker room, no social distancing or masks are enforced.

    Sometimes when I go out, like to the supermarket, I don't wear a mask (usually because I forgot it at home) and there are always some other people not wearing.

    More than half of people have stopped wearing masks outside (like on the sidewalks).

    Many businesses and schools are doing security theater, but not sure how effective it is. For example, some luxury department stores have infrared cameras at the entrances (how many people feel like non-necessity shopping when they have a high fever? and you can cover it up with Tylenol anyhow), and there are plastic "sneeze guards" between customer and staff in a lot of places, but these don't prevent infected air circulating around. Similarly, a lot of places are frequently wiping things down with cleaning sprays and paper towels, but this would not be considered adequate in a hospital, and the risk of infection from surface contact has been shown to be low anyhow. Another example: the post office won't hand packages to you even though there is no evidence of transmission via mail and even though Amazon and grocery store delivery is going strong.

    Anyhow, my point is that while you are correct about the Fox Butterfield fallacy, the "Japan is enacting and enforcing basic social distancing" should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Also, while Japan may not be an argument for doing away with all precautions, it is an argument against (1) continuing whole-population lockdowns, (2) the kind of "test everyone!" theory of testing efficacy, (3) legally mandated masks everywhere, (4) the necessity of vaccines before returning to work, and (x) other extreme claims and measures.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @HA

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    @HA



    the low CFR we’re seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services

     

    Wat? Social distancing in the armed services? Do they like, tape an X on every other bunk in the submarines now?


    “Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?”

     

    Remy: People Will Die!

    Replies: @HA

  94. @res
    That table would be even more interesting with the number of people in each category added along with the resulting case rates.

    US Active duty military 1.3 million
    https://www.governing.com/gov-data/public-workforce-salaries/military-civilian-active-duty-employee-workforce-numbers-by-state.html

    Military dependents 1.6 million
    https://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Infographic/2018-demographics-active-duty-families.pdf

    DOD civilians 750 thousand
    Service Contractors 560 thousand
    https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-military-forces-fy-2020-sof-civilians-contractors-and-nukes

    Category | Cases | # People | Case Rate
    Military | 40,026 | 1,300,000 | 3.08%
    Civilian | 8,882 | 750,000 | 1.18%
    Dependent | 5,339 | 1,600,000 | 0.33%
    Contractor | 3,811 | 560,000 | 0.68%
    Total | 58,058 | 4,210,000 | 1.38%

    Those case rates seem awfully low to me. I wonder what the true infection rates are.

    Replies: @anon

    Another set of implausible data:

    U.S. has passed Italy in Deaths per million.

    Peru: 915
    Belgium: 855
    Spain: 635
    Chile: 615
    U.K. 612
    Bolivia; 611
    Ecuador: 608
    Brazil: 605
    USA: 591

    Looks like Covid is settling down in Latin America.

  95. More evidence that anyone who thinks this low number of COVID deaths in the military is an argument against mask wearing has it backwards:

    Military Times: Wearing masks could become part of troops’ standard post-COVID operating procedure

    Wearing masks, wiping down work spaces and quarantine periods have presented a fringe benefit to military operations, most notably in the basic training environment. Fewer troops are coming down with communicable diseases, which take them out of the fight for days or even weeks…military medicine is learning in real time how best to keep troops safe for now, and perhaps into the future…

    “One of the things that, I will tell you, we definitely believe has made a difference is the masks, particularly in close quarters,” Rear Adm. Louis Tripoli, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s top doctor, told reporters Aug. 31.”

    Yes, this kind of thing also increases the danger that we’re eventually going to become immunologically “soft” as a species, and more likely to suffer auto-immune diseases — that’s usually how it works with any “advance” in medicine or health — but if that’s your worry, there are better ways to address it than throwing tantrums on Facebook or becoming another anti-vaxxer nutjob.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @HA

    Even after the Covid-19 pandemic, mask wearing by nurses in icy and critical care wards will probably become standard Since Medicare/Medicaid services want to punish hospitals for the infections that patients get while in the hospital, masks will become standard. I also suspect that visitors to ICU or any ward with immune compromised patients will be required to wear masks to try to decrease the number of infections.

  96. @Buzz Mohawk
    @prosa123

    There's a bulge in my pants blocking my view. Am I gonna die?

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind, @Almost Missouri, @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Ancient Briton

    If and when your bulge decides to give it a rest and you then can’t see Mr. Wiggily without a hand mirror, then you are at high risk for Covid 19 mortality.

  97. @HA
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?"

    Wearing masks (and taking basic social distanging precautions) reduces the CFR as well as the transmission rate. (see also this earlier animal study). Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you're more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer few complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on "variolation") but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.

    I've said this before, but anyone who claims that the low CFR we're seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services, or in countries like Switzerland or Japan) is somehow an argument for doing away with such restrictions has just committed a classic Fox Butterfield fallacy (as in, "why are we building more and more prisons even though crime rates are going down?").

    To repeat: if anyone wants to ask "Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?", he should first stop and realize that he just answered his own stupid question.

    Replies: @vhrm, @Kratoklastes, @Chrisnonymous, @Hippopotamusdrome

    Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you’re more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer fewer complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on “variolation”) but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.

    Yes, i tend to believe this. For example the death of those poor Chinese doctors and nurses in their 20s and 30s who died early on is consistent with their having gotten large doses over a short period since there’s “no way” they would have died now.

    However IFR is also pretty low (though infection rate is pretty high) among the segments of urban society that aren’t following most of the rules.

    So my impression is that the bulk of those CFR/IFR reduction benefits of reducing the dose of exposure would be achieved at a relatively small fraction of the level of restrictions that we have now.
    Mainly:
    mask up:
    – in healthcare settings, esp. around people with respiratory symptoms.
    – in nursing homes.
    – on public transit (and increase ventilation and try to reduce congestion)

    close/restrict:
    – sweaty night clubs
    – concerts and sports events, maybe maga-church services
    (and mask, lower density , increase ventilation at the ones that ARE allowed)

    Basically take the liberal line on drugs or pregnancy: “harm reduction” > “prohibition”

    • Replies: @HA
    @vhrm

    "mask up: – in healthcare settings, esp. around people with respiratory symptoms... on public transit...

    That may well be the right approach, though it's far beyond my expertise to say. However, I don't think the people who throw tantrums over wearing a mask at Walmart are going to suddenly gain enough IQ points to give up the snowflake routine once they get onto a subway or airplane. They proudly act like brats and refuse to wear masks on principle.

    In the case of the military, it's not just about being young and thin-enough-to-see-your-feet as some here would like to think. It's about being young, thin-enough, and not being permitted to act like a spoiled child when it comes to heeding quarantine and social distancing regulations. But good luck getting them to admit that.

  98. So does this mean that Sgt. Carter and Sgt. Hartman no longer get into Gomer and Joker’s faces and scream at them?

  99. @JimDandy
    Were any of the people in the military who died of Covid also, like, shot through the head by an enemy bullet or beheaded in a helicopter crash or anything like that?

    Replies: @Polynikes, @Travis

    one of them had Lung cancer , 1 of them were diabetic and 2 had were obese and one was fighting HIV

    • Replies: @res
    @Travis


    one of them had Lung cancer , 1 of them were diabetic and 2 had were obese and one was fighting HIV
     
    If you are serious, could you please give some references? This August article mentions four of the military deaths, but I am not finding much on comorbidities.
    https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/08/04/4th-us-service-member-dies-of-covid-19.html

    Replies: @Travis

  100. @HA

    Even after the Covid-19 pandemic, mask wearing by nurses in icy and critical care wards will probably become standard Since Medicare/Medicaid services want to punish hospitals for the infections that patients get while in the hospital, masks will become standard. I also suspect that visitors to ICU or any ward with immune compromised patients will be required to wear masks to try to decrease the number of infections.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
  101. Steve, speaking of Wuhan death percentages, have you seen this twitter thread from Stephen McIntyre?

    Absolutely shocking.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1303024247510503424.html

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia


    Absolutely shocking
     
    Not really 'shocking' - it's more like 'predictable' if you have the appropriate starting premise - viz., that nobody with any talent wants to be a "public health official". There was a massive incentive to 'goose' all forecasts - as there has been with every major scare campaign in the last two decades.

    The conflation of CFR and IFR resulted in forecast death counts that were almost exactly 10x what they ought to have been - which made this thing look like it was worse than the 'flu when it absolutely isn't.

    As usual, the error was in the direction that favoured reducing constraints on government power - enabling the vermin of the political class to impose its will on the peons.

    That means it wasn't an error: it was a means to an end. Literally thousands of competent (i.e., not public-sector) quants have been banging the table about this since late March.

    Nobody in the media has any excuse for not knowing this, because they have been told time and time again: the problem is, "There's nothing to worry about" does not generate eyeballs, clicks and easy-to-generate content.
  102. Pointing out that Biden told a massive lie? That must be a fireable offense at CNN. Shocked this article was written at all.

  103. @Anonymous
    Biden is the New Mondale. Only worse. Because Mondale was mostly just a square. Nice guy. Wacky liberal.

    But Biden is a slimeball liar and plagiarist. Crooked politician. Always pretended to be the folksy man of the people but could never pull it off. Got bounced out of the primaries twice when he was in his prime.

    Looks like Biden will lose MN. He is 10 points behind where 2016 Hillary was in Twin Cities poll.

    Like a lot of Senators Biden has never run anything in his life. No executive experience. His first big exec hiring decision: Kamala Harris. She is a disaster.

    Also Biden is a D.C. insider. This is Bob Dole John Kerry John McCain etc all over again. D.C. INSIDERS NEVER BEAT INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS.

    The only way to beat Trump was with an outsider who portrayed Trump as the corrupt insider. Incumbent HW Bush 92 lost to outsider Clinton. (Obviously Mondale was the exact wrong outsider in 84.)

    Biden losing will make four in a row insider senators failing against the incumbent potus.

    I blame a lack of brainpower in the current Dem party. I can't think of a single scary talented Dem strategist. The equivalent Ragin' Cajun or David Axelrod are nowhere to be found.

    Replies: @International Jew, @epebble, @AndrewR

    McCain wasn’t up against an incumbent, and Romney was not really a “DC insider” even if he was slimy and cozy with all the DC sociopaths.

  104. @Andrew M
    As a young fit & healthy male (admittedly not military-grade fitness), a 1 in 6000 risk is still quite worrying. I hope the DoD releases a report about those seven deaths; it would be interesting to know if they had complicating factors.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Achmed E. Newman, @Thatgirl, @AndrewR, @Anon, @Piglet

    Lmao how fit do you think the average military member is? If you’re less fit than the military median then you are NOT fit

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @AndrewR

    Aaah, man, it's confusing as hell with you 2 Andrews. I completely agree, Andrew R. I was kind of wondering when I wrote Andrew M. that long reply, is he really in good shape? If so, then he is easily fit for the military. I've seen plenty of people 20-30 lb. overweight getting off the plane to start basic training.

    Replies: @AndrewR

  105. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Steve Sailer

    Look, here's what it's all about, in reality, for old people once they get hospitalized or in the shape for which they should be:


    If you've dealt with an older family member or friend in the hospital for serious illness (not the same as with young people hurt in a car wreck), you may know how this goes. This one condition requires this treatment, but we can't do that until he gets his XYZ readings up. For that, we will prescribe drug ABC, which does have a worsening effect on this OTHER condition. Additionally, the same drug, that he really needs to take, has a side effect causing this OTHER problem, which hopefully will not be bad enough to stop us from doing that original treatment we were going to do ... It gets pretty sad and/or scary, as things as up in the fashion of a puzzle. Solving the puzzle is the way to get through it all, until something else crops up next month. I hope all you readers can somehow avoid this, but ... as opposed to what, right?

    After all that, for some months, if the patient doesn't make it home, then the cause of death must be logged. What was it, exactly? Note that 2.6 average co-conditions. But, we need a code or two, and "old age" is not one of them.
     
    (From Peak Stupidity's post "6% dying from Kung Flu alone - Vindication, bitchez!".)

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    I agree Achmed – CO-19 is not as dangerous as it looked in the first two months. By far.

    When I first read about Professor Klaus Püschel from Hamburg-Eppendorf, a well-known pathologist, who looked closely into one hundred CO-19 deaths**** and found that none of them had died because of CO-19 (all with it) and almost all of them were older when they died than the average German by the time of his death – it took me a while to accept his findings.

    *** hurting strict government regulations which interdicted (!) such post mortem examinations, because they’d be – – – too dangerous…

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Dieter Kief

    In the early days too there was a German doctor (forget his name, sorry) who spoke in a video very clearly about how none of the lockdown proposals were justified and how the severity of the threat was far from certain. He and Didier Raoult of France have been totally vindicated. But in Nancy Pelosi's defense there's some good food in Chinatown.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    , @HA
    @Dieter Kief

    "I agree Achmed – CO-19 is not as dangerous as it looked in the first two months. By far...."

    And part of the reason for that is because people took to social distancing and mask wearing which brought down the CFR, something that this supposedly well-respected Klaus Püschel seems to have ignored.

    In other words, he deserves a lot less respect than you're giving him.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @Mr. Anon

  106. @AndrewR
    @Andrew M

    Lmao how fit do you think the average military member is? If you're less fit than the military median then you are NOT fit

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Aaah, man, it’s confusing as hell with you 2 Andrews. I completely agree, Andrew R. I was kind of wondering when I wrote Andrew M. that long reply, is he really in good shape? If so, then he is easily fit for the military. I’ve seen plenty of people 20-30 lb. overweight getting off the plane to start basic training.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I have seniority over him on here but it's all good.

    I would recommend going to basic training as fit as you can be but it's also designed so that pretty much anyone who passes the pre-enlistment exams can finish basic training. The sleep deprivation, the psychological abuse and the unbelievably short meal times are all much worse than the physical exertion of basic training, at least in the USAF.

    Actually I wouldn't recommend joining the US military at all, especially in 2020 as they are forcing all the wokeness* on people in addition to the wars for Israel, but if one does enlist then one should strive for a high fitness level before boot camp

    *from the official Twitter feed of the Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force:

    "This, my friends, is my greatest fear, not that I will be killed by a white police officer (believe me my heart starts racing like most other Black men in America when I see those blue lights behind me) But that I will wake up to a report that one of our Black Airmen has died at the hands of a white police officer... I am George Floyd…I am Philando Castile, I am Michael Brown, I am Alton Sterling, I am Tamir Rice."

  107. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Andrew M

    Andrew, I wouldn't have been so flippant in my comment if I'd know you would reply civilly and calmly (never rule anything out!)

    If you are between 25 and 35 y/o, Andrew, the CDC data says that the total percentage of deaths WITH COVID-19 of people your age is 9%, but that's not accounting for co-morbidities. They say (look here) someone in that age group (I'm assuming, cause you didn't say) has a 0.13% chance of dying from all causes, which brings the "WITH COVID-19" death rate to 0.012%. That is one in about 8,000 so does match your 1 in 6,000 pretty well.

    How about if we bring in the fact that the CDC itself admitted that only 6% of "COVID-19 deaths" are without any co-morbidities? It's on their web site. There are big incentives, for everyone, family, doctors, hospitals to log deaths as from the virus for political and monetary (insurance and government support) reasons.

    Let's talk car wrecks. Though it's a good page, this NHSTA page has no raw numbers, but shows car wreck fatalities for men in that 10-year span age group to be 17.5% of total male car wreck fatalities. I get roughly 22,000 male fatalities yearly, so right around 4,000. I cannot seem to get a good value for the number of Americans in the 25-35 age group, but call it 50,000,000 and your chances of dying in a car crash are under 1 in 10,000.

    OK, point made. Nope, but it's not. This does not account for the co-morbidities in these deaths of guys your age WITH the COVID-19. Guys dying from this disease at your age have other SERIOUS problems. You just told me you don't. Even if you triple the 6% number of cases for which there was no co-morbidity, you've got a greater chance of dying in a car wreck than from the Kung Flu, Andrew.

    The last thing will be anecdotal. I ask you to think of any young people you know that have died of this COVID-19, even officially. Then think if you know anyone who has died in a car wreck. How about the same for people you know who know someone who ...?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Not out of moderation yet, but I see one error involving the car wreck #s. I should have used the total number of men between 25-35 (inclusive on one end or the other). Therefore that’d make the odds closer to 1 in 5,000, but then I pulled that 50,000,000 out of my ass, meaning ~ 25,000,000 males in that group. If you or anyone has those numbers, I’d like to know, as all the stuff I’ve been reading keeps breaking up the age groups more coarsely than 10-year ones.

  108. Anon[908] • Disclaimer says:
    @Andrew M
    As a young fit & healthy male (admittedly not military-grade fitness), a 1 in 6000 risk is still quite worrying. I hope the DoD releases a report about those seven deaths; it would be interesting to know if they had complicating factors.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Achmed E. Newman, @Thatgirl, @AndrewR, @Anon, @Piglet

    The risk is not 1 in 6,000 …… more like one in 150,000. We have over a million troops in the military, many of them over the age of 40. Most of those in the military who died from COVID were over the age of 40

    while the military has confirmed about 50,000 cases, most will show no symptoms because the majority of those under the age of 35 are basically immune to this virus. We have no idea how many troops were infected with coronavirus this year. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/09/03/7th-us-service-member-has-died-from-covid-19/

    The U.S. service members who’ve died due to complications related to COVID-19 are Navy Chief Charles Thacker, 41; Army reservist Sgt. Simon Zamudio, 34; Army reservist Spc. Curtis Fort, 61; and Army reservist Master Sgt. Brian K. Tolliver, 46 and Army Capt. Douglas Linn Hickock, 57, with the New Jersey National Guard and Lt. Col. Jonathan Shiroma, a 36-year-old staff sergeant assigned to the California National Guard. The average age was 46 years-old.

  109. Meanwhile in the Public Edbejukin’shun bidness:

    A woman posing for a picture: Known as the school’s “songbird” for entertaining students with her voice, Demetria “Demi” Bannister was teaching her third-graders remotely this year:

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/south-carolina-teacher-28-dies-from-coronavirus-3-days-after-testing-positive/ar-BB18UbDP?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp&fullscreen=true#image=2

  110. @Dieter Kief
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I agree Achmed - CO-19 is not as dangerous as it looked in the first two months. By far.

    When I first read about Professor Klaus Püschel from Hamburg-Eppendorf, a well-known pathologist, who looked closely into one hundred CO-19 deaths**** and found that none of them had died because of CO-19 (all with it) and almost all of them were older when they died than the average German by the time of his death - it took me a while to accept his findings.

    *** hurting strict government regulations which interdicted (!) such post mortem examinations, because they'd be - - - too dangerous...

    Replies: @J.Ross, @HA

    In the early days too there was a German doctor (forget his name, sorry) who spoke in a video very clearly about how none of the lockdown proposals were justified and how the severity of the threat was far from certain. He and Didier Raoult of France have been totally vindicated. But in Nancy Pelosi’s defense there’s some good food in Chinatown.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @J.Ross

    Could have been Wolfgang Wodarg - this video is from the 13th of March - (or Professor em. Sucharit Bhakti)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    It seems about quite right still. (In the beginning, it took me some time to see as clearly as he did, because I could not make sense of what had taken place especially in Italy, Spain and Alsace/France. I think now, this is clear too and thus what could have been a counter-argument against Wodargs analysis isn't one any longer (or bettter: Never hs been).

    Replies: @J.Ross

  111. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    Anon 132 with a classic Unz Hat Trick! (four separate reaction buttons, this concept was developed before the Thanks button)

    • Agree: vhrm
  112. @anonymous
    @Andrew M

    Exactly. It means if you are in good fitness and 30 year old and the virus is allowed to run wild there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying within a year from this? Also I would like to know how many people have long term bad effects. It's absolutely bullshit to use his statistic to think this thing is no big deal.

    Replies: @Thatgirl, @Kratoklastes

    It means if you are in good fitness and 30 year old and the virus is allowed to run wild there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying within a year from this?

    You’ve missed a bunch of aspects of military life that diverge from the norm and generate tilts towards increased spread of any illness – for example, living in close quarters with your squad (for the Navy shipboard ‘close quarters’ is an understatement).

    Besides, 1 in 10,000 is trivial: it’s in line with… wait for it … the ‘flu, bro.

    The median military member does not have ‘good’ fitness: they have adequate fitness.

    Fitness standards in militaries the world over have taken the same path as US high school grades – i.e., the standard to get an ‘A’ has declined, and the standard to get a ‘pass’ is embarrassingly low. (It’s higher for combat arms, but even there the standard is worse than it used to be: turns out that even unemployable youth are pretty risk-averse when it comes to pointless wars).

    (When I was a soldier, standards were higher. We were all fitter than Olympic ninjas and smarter than Jedis… at least that’s how I remember it. We wuz good-lookin’, too. You whippersnappers don’t know how easy you’ve got it… now get off my lawn).

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Kratoklastes

    I think some standards have declined but others have changed due to better understanding of relationship of fitness and performance. For example, asking Navy SEALS to be able to be good long-distance-while-unencumbered runners doesn't make sense if what they need to do in combat is sprint for short distances while carrying lots of equipment.

  113. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    Steve, speaking of Wuhan death percentages, have you seen this twitter thread from Stephen McIntyre?

    Absolutely shocking.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1303024247510503424.html

    Replies: @Kratoklastes

    Absolutely shocking

    Not really ‘shocking’ – it’s more like ‘predictable’ if you have the appropriate starting premise – viz., that nobody with any talent wants to be a “public health official”. There was a massive incentive to ‘goose’ all forecasts – as there has been with every major scare campaign in the last two decades.

    The conflation of CFR and IFR resulted in forecast death counts that were almost exactly 10x what they ought to have been – which made this thing look like it was worse than the ‘flu when it absolutely isn’t.

    As usual, the error was in the direction that favoured reducing constraints on government power – enabling the vermin of the political class to impose its will on the peons.

    That means it wasn’t an error: it was a means to an end. Literally thousands of competent (i.e., not public-sector) quants have been banging the table about this since late March.

    Nobody in the media has any excuse for not knowing this, because they have been told time and time again: the problem is, “There’s nothing to worry about” does not generate eyeballs, clicks and easy-to-generate content.

  114. @Travis
    @JimDandy

    one of them had Lung cancer , 1 of them were diabetic and 2 had were obese and one was fighting HIV

    Replies: @res

    one of them had Lung cancer , 1 of them were diabetic and 2 had were obese and one was fighting HIV

    If you are serious, could you please give some references? This August article mentions four of the military deaths, but I am not finding much on comorbidities.
    https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/08/04/4th-us-service-member-dies-of-covid-19.html

    • Replies: @Travis
    @res

    https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/mc-nws-coronavirus-first-military-death-20200331-p4ogar3jazhopiwtn6tg2qmy4u-story.html

    Hickok had battled lung cancer. he lived in Pennsylvania and worked in Connecticut as a physician assistant. He was 57 years old. He was the first COVID military death, though he was in the reserves and not active at the time.

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/09/03/7th-us-service-member-has-died-from-covid-19/ This link shows all the military deaths were over the age of 34. The average age was 46. Most of them were in the reserves. From their pictures , some of them appear over-weight.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

  115. @res
    @Travis


    one of them had Lung cancer , 1 of them were diabetic and 2 had were obese and one was fighting HIV
     
    If you are serious, could you please give some references? This August article mentions four of the military deaths, but I am not finding much on comorbidities.
    https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/08/04/4th-us-service-member-dies-of-covid-19.html

    Replies: @Travis

    https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/mc-nws-coronavirus-first-military-death-20200331-p4ogar3jazhopiwtn6tg2qmy4u-story.html

    Hickok had battled lung cancer. he lived in Pennsylvania and worked in Connecticut as a physician assistant. He was 57 years old. He was the first COVID military death, though he was in the reserves and not active at the time.

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/09/03/7th-us-service-member-has-died-from-covid-19/ This link shows all the military deaths were over the age of 34. The average age was 46. Most of them were in the reserves. From their pictures , some of them appear over-weight.

    • Thanks: JimDandy
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Travis

    Thanks.

    , @res
    @Travis

    Thanks.

    I wonder if Hickock might have survived if he had gotten sick later after they had figured out that maybe ventilators were not the best solution. Note that March 25 was a Wednesday.


    But the 57-year-old New Jersey Army National Guardsman, a physician assistant who lived in Bangor, took a bad turn. On March 25, five days after admission, he was placed on a ventilator to help him breathe.

    On Saturday, Hickok died.

    ...

    But he was worried, too. Ventilators are an intensive treatment, and it can be hard to wean patients off of them.

    “He was not a fan of ventilators,” Scott-Peavler said. “He said ‘Sis, if they put me on it, I’m gone.' He knew it. He’d seen it.”

     

    Anything on this part of your original comment? "1 of them were diabetic and 2 had were obese and one was fighting HIV"

    P.S. This study of veterans might be of interest.
    https://www.aidsmap.com/news/jul-2020/no-link-between-hiv-status-and-coronavirus-outcomes-large-us-study
  116. @Alden
    @Anonymous

    Only about 9,500 of the 200, 000 deaths were from covid alone. The average age of the 200,000 dead is 78.54. Average of death in America all ages and ethnicities is 78.

    190,000 of the other covid dead had 1 or more deadly diseases cancer severe diabetes cardio vascular problems, obesity, COPD and other respiratory problems.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @guest007, @Almost Missouri, @Jack D, @Chrisnonymous

    I tend to agree that the number of deaths not attributable to being old or sick before getting COVID is smaller than the reported deaths. However, please check out this video about the CDC report….

  117. @HA
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?"

    Wearing masks (and taking basic social distanging precautions) reduces the CFR as well as the transmission rate. (see also this earlier animal study). Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you're more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer few complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on "variolation") but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.

    I've said this before, but anyone who claims that the low CFR we're seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services, or in countries like Switzerland or Japan) is somehow an argument for doing away with such restrictions has just committed a classic Fox Butterfield fallacy (as in, "why are we building more and more prisons even though crime rates are going down?").

    To repeat: if anyone wants to ask "Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?", he should first stop and realize that he just answered his own stupid question.

    Replies: @vhrm, @Kratoklastes, @Chrisnonymous, @Hippopotamusdrome

    if anyone wants to ask “Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?”, he should first stop and realize that he just answered his own stupid question.

    Doomers and government whiplickers ought to ask themselves: how often are you less than 6 feet from a stranger for long enough to get a decent dose?.

    In Australia “the science” says you’ve got to be in close casual proximity for 15 minutes – without a face-nappy – to get a dose that raises your infection risk. (That 15 minutes is a nonsense number, but it’s their number)[1]

    Most infectees will, in any case, remain asymptomatic; some small proportion will get ill to varying degrees of severity, and a vanishingly-small number of previously-healthy people will be hospitalised… of which, almost none will die.

    As you add risk overlays – metabolic syndrome, pulmonary and respiratory disease, immune-compromise… and most of all ‘age > 75’ – all risks increase; it remains that if you’re not an occupant in an age care home you’re very unlikely to die. (“Age > 75” is not an independent risk factor – it’s just that other risk factors are present in a larger proportion of the elderly, and at more severe levels. Healthy 75 year olds experience about the same disease progression as healthy 40 year olds).

    What we have observed is the normal pattern of spread of a relatively low-mortality virus – whose lethality was hyped by a factor of ten by serial doom-huckster Fauci in March (and his fuckup was used as an input by others like Ferguson).

    Everywhere it has been measured, death tolls ramped up, peaked and declined to triviality along paths that aligned with with a moderate-lethality, moderately-infectious disease.

    The thing about hyping the lethality of a thing, is that it lowers the bar: whatever you do, death rates will be lower than expected – so you can declare that your decisions were successful.

    Even deplorable fuckups – like forcing corona-positive aged care patients back into care homes[2] – don’t raise the death toll enough to touch the initial over-hyped level.

    So at the end of the day, the tax-eating hucksters get to do a victory lap and claim that without them we would all be dying in the street, with bubbles of pink sputum frothing at the corners of our mouths.

    [1] Obviously, getting sneezed on directly by a patient in the throes of dying from respiratory illness is a very different event from standing near someone who is breathing, but happens to have contracted SARS-nCov2. Nobody’s saying that hospital staff shouldn’t practice infection control.

    [2] that policy was undertaken in both the US (particularly NY) and in the UK: it is responsible for the lion’s share of all deaths -whether mis-measured or not.

    Clear out the hospitals to prepare for the tsunami of severe caseskilled tens of thousands of elderly people, and the entire decision-making apparatus that generated that policy should be executed.

  118. @Polynikes
    @ScarletNumber

    Correct. Places like Sweden where they instituted little formal lockdowns are approaching no excess mortality for the year. Places with heavy lockdowns are much more complicated on the excess death front because strict lockdowns have likely lead to many deaths. Ethical Skeptic already has the “years of life lost” from the lockdowns greater than from the ‘rona.

    Replies: @HA

    “Places with heavy lockdowns are much more complicated on the excess death front because strict lockdowns have likely lead to many deaths.”

    But fewer deaths overall — somehow people like you always manage to forget that part.

    If the lockdowns were ending more than they were prolonging, then easing the lockdowns wouldn’t have caused a “second hump”, i.e., an increase in the death rate (even though it was summertime when the corona-truthers were assuring us “the virus won’t transmit. Yeah, baby!” and even though we were “almost at herd immunity”, and whatever other pipe dreams were being floated about by the just-a-flu bros).

    So yes, the lockdowns are causing deaths in some cases (suicide, etc.) and reducing it for others (delaying or canceling elective surgeries, etc.) but given the coronavirus deaths they’re preventing, you need to stop pretending they’ve taken more lives than they’ve saved. Sweden, of all places, demonstrates that, given its death toll in comparison with its neighbors.

    You can’t have it both ways. These magic/tragic lockdowns that increase the death toll when they’re applied, and then cause another increase when they’re eased are about as believable as crazy old grandpa’s barefoot walks to and from school in the bitter rain and snow when he was young, that went uphill both ways. It didn’t happen like that, grandpa. That’s about as believable as this magic/tragic dirt that liberals claim is the main reason black people are being held back.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @HA

    The lockdowns did not prevent COVID deaths in New Jersey, New York , Pennsylvania...and when the lockdowns were eased in NJ, NY , PA there was no increase in COVID deaths

    Where did the easing of lockdowns result in an increase in deaths ? Name the place ? I cannot find any place which had a second wave of deaths or hospitalizations after the lockdowns were eased.

    In NY and NJ the lockdowns started in March. The schools were shuttered between March 11 and March 15 in NY and NJ , as were all churches, restaurants, malls etc.. yet the death count soared in April , peaking 3-4 weeks after the lockdowns..,, No evidence the lockdowns prevented deaths in NJ and NY.

    while the lockdowns did not reduce COVID deaths in NY and NJ , they certainly had a negative impact on the economy and health and well being of everyone else.

    We see similar results in European nations..the data show that the relative strictness of a country’s containment measures had little bearing on its membership in any of the three groups above. While Germany had milder restrictions than Spain, it has been much more successful in containing the virus. Sweden and Japan did not lockdown their nations yet faired much better than New York , new Jersey , PA, Spain, France, etc...

    There is no evidence to support lockdowns as an effective response to stop coronavirus. Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus 'likely has its own dynamics' which are 'unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures'..Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been spooked by 'flawed scientific papers' into imposing lockdowns which were 'inefficient or late' and had little effect.

    'Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than Covid-19 itself,' The JP Morgan report includes graphs showing that 'the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates' after lockdowns were lifted. Infection rates have continued to decline even once a lag period for new infections to become visible is factored in, the report says. A second graph shows a similar effect in the US, showing that many states saw a lower rate of transmission (R) after full-scale lockdowns were ended. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html

    Replies: @HA

    , @Polynikes
    @HA

    Lockdowns spread out deaths, at best. The “second hump” was regional had nothing to do with lockdowns.

  119. @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder
    @Anonymous


    There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater)
     
    Probably 25% of that. Ever heard of the concept of excess deaths?

    The vast majority of covid victims were going to die anyway, and many of the rest were killed by Andrew Cuomo demanding that they be intubated and/or placed in nursing homes.


    About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?
     
    So what you're saying is that either you didn't read Steve's argument, or you couldn't understand it, or both.

    Replies: @Svigor, @HA

    “Ever heard of the concept of excess deaths?”

    If anything, excess mortality rates rates indicate that we’ve undercounted coronavirus deaths.

    The same goes for anyone claiming that the tolls have been inflated by creative mislabeling in cause-of-death certificates. Yes, we’ve all heard about the motorcycle death attributed to COVID. That was definitely a covid death overcount. But when you include all the false negatives and never-tested-for-covid deaths that resulted in a local undercount of covid mortality — or better yet, just look at the excess mortality, as noted — the death toll is pretty much the same (and actually somewhat larger).

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @HA

    "Excess deaths" isn't a synonym for "COVID deaths". Lots of non-elective surgeries have been delayed or compromised by the lockdown, for example.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-high-is-herd-immunity-level/#comment-3905256

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/a-big-question/#comment-3905673

    https://www.unz.com/article/brad-griffin-is-not-my-mommy-and-he-doesnt-get-to-decide-whether-or-not-i-can-play-outside/?showcomments#comment-3876006

    Still, I agree that the excess deaths figures show that something happened and that COVID was part of it. But they also show that the recent excess deaths were minor on a historical scale compared to earlier epidemics.

    Replies: @HA

  120. @Dieter Kief
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I agree Achmed - CO-19 is not as dangerous as it looked in the first two months. By far.

    When I first read about Professor Klaus Püschel from Hamburg-Eppendorf, a well-known pathologist, who looked closely into one hundred CO-19 deaths**** and found that none of them had died because of CO-19 (all with it) and almost all of them were older when they died than the average German by the time of his death - it took me a while to accept his findings.

    *** hurting strict government regulations which interdicted (!) such post mortem examinations, because they'd be - - - too dangerous...

    Replies: @J.Ross, @HA

    “I agree Achmed – CO-19 is not as dangerous as it looked in the first two months. By far….”

    And part of the reason for that is because people took to social distancing and mask wearing which brought down the CFR, something that this supposedly well-respected Klaus Püschel seems to have ignored.

    In other words, he deserves a lot less respect than you’re giving him.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @HA

    Mask wearing and social distancing in Germany were applied after (!) CO-19 numbers had started to decline.

    Swiss schools were hardly closed (10 days more easter holidays - that was it) - but nothing much happened in Switzerland compared to Germany, where the schools are still not fully open. Swiss crafts never stopped work. As did almost all of the Swiss factories.

    The Swiss hospitals were at no point under stress from emergency patients with CO-19. Never.

    In all of Germany, there were in the last weeks always less than 300 people in emergency care because of CO-19. This is no pandemic.

    Replies: @HA

    , @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    Sure, that cloth mask with a filtering efficiency that varies anywhere from 10% - 90% made all the difference.

    The only thing that brought down the the CFR was the infection of a wider array of people who were less susceptible to developing the disease.

    But - by all means - keep holding on to your "COVID-19 is the great existential threat of our time" fantasy. It might comfort you while strolling past the food-bank lines in your boarded-up, burned-out city.

    Replies: @HA, @Chrisnonymous

  121. @HA
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?"

    Wearing masks (and taking basic social distanging precautions) reduces the CFR as well as the transmission rate. (see also this earlier animal study). Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you're more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer few complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on "variolation") but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.

    I've said this before, but anyone who claims that the low CFR we're seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services, or in countries like Switzerland or Japan) is somehow an argument for doing away with such restrictions has just committed a classic Fox Butterfield fallacy (as in, "why are we building more and more prisons even though crime rates are going down?").

    To repeat: if anyone wants to ask "Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?", he should first stop and realize that he just answered his own stupid question.

    Replies: @vhrm, @Kratoklastes, @Chrisnonymous, @Hippopotamusdrome

    I live in an urban area in Japan.

    My gym opened again a couple months ago, and I have been going for about 6 weeks as have many other members. There is a standard security theater temperature checks and masks during workouts, but people use benches and weights next to each other and in the locker room, no social distancing or masks are enforced.

    Sometimes when I go out, like to the supermarket, I don’t wear a mask (usually because I forgot it at home) and there are always some other people not wearing.

    More than half of people have stopped wearing masks outside (like on the sidewalks).

    Many businesses and schools are doing security theater, but not sure how effective it is. For example, some luxury department stores have infrared cameras at the entrances (how many people feel like non-necessity shopping when they have a high fever? and you can cover it up with Tylenol anyhow), and there are plastic “sneeze guards” between customer and staff in a lot of places, but these don’t prevent infected air circulating around. Similarly, a lot of places are frequently wiping things down with cleaning sprays and paper towels, but this would not be considered adequate in a hospital, and the risk of infection from surface contact has been shown to be low anyhow. Another example: the post office won’t hand packages to you even though there is no evidence of transmission via mail and even though Amazon and grocery store delivery is going strong.

    Anyhow, my point is that while you are correct about the Fox Butterfield fallacy, the “Japan is enacting and enforcing basic social distancing” should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Also, while Japan may not be an argument for doing away with all precautions, it is an argument against (1) continuing whole-population lockdowns, (2) the kind of “test everyone!” theory of testing efficacy, (3) legally mandated masks everywhere, (4) the necessity of vaccines before returning to work, and (x) other extreme claims and measures.

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Chrisnonymous

    I forgot to comment on restaurants:

    Many pubs are closing earlier than normal and many people are avoiding going to drinking parties with their colleagues. Frequent small drinking outings and periodic large drinking outings used to be a standard part of culture. That said, most restaurants are open and do not enforce rules about mask-wearing, such as the rules I have seen in the US that you have to wear a mask when walking between your table and the front door. I went out with my wife recently to a high-end place and the staff were wearing masks, but there were no barriers, bubbles, face shields, etc. At the low-end places we usually frequent, the staff often don't wear masks, but the chains and franchises enforce them on staff. I have entered restaurants without masks before and not been turned away--this is the Japanese style: most people are cautious most of the time, but nobody is doing anything extreme and nobody is draconian or going into hysterics over other people's behavior.

    , @HA
    @Chrisnonymous

    "Anyhow, my point is that while you are correct about the Fox Butterfield fallacy, the “Japan is enacting and enforcing basic social distancing” should be taken with a grain of salt."

    I have two things to say about that:

    1) Japan has been at this a long time. Look at the number of people who mask up in a Japanese subway or allow contact tracing and compare it to the number of people who are willing to do that here. And as a result, they haven't had to shift things around as much, given that to a large extent, they were already at it. Differences like that matter. How many Japanese are throwing tantrums over having to wear masks at the local bodega? How many are twerking away mask-free at an Air-BnB party? Probably not as many as in the US, I'm guessing, even on a per capita basis.

    2) Japan can still have nice things. We no longer can. (Sweden is just now apparently realizing that it can no longer have some of those nice things that it used to enjoy and might have to do without going forward.) Yes, a good portion of the people who are now stuck wearing masks probably don't need to as often as they're asked to do so, but that's because we're also stuck with large numbers of more at-risk people who really do need to do that more often. And if we started passing out exemptions to the groups of people who might get by with practicing social distancing responsibly at their own behest, because they're wealthy enough to be able to not be crammed in like everyone else, or whatever other reason, well, we both know that that wouldn't go over well. That's just how it goes.

    Once Japan replaces a good chunk of itself with some of the same kinds of people Westerners have been replacing themselves with, things will be different for them as well. Yeah, it's tough coming up with one single social health policy for a country that at this point is several different continents, just as it is tough to come up with an effective set of education goals when a good chunk of the class can't even read, but that's what we get for doing what we've done to ourselves.

    But don't worry -- we all got some really cheap tacos and spicy ethnic food to wash all that down with, so in the end, it all balanced out. Diveristy wins again!

  122. @HA
    @Polynikes

    "Places with heavy lockdowns are much more complicated on the excess death front because strict lockdowns have likely lead to many deaths."

    But fewer deaths overall -- somehow people like you always manage to forget that part.

    If the lockdowns were ending more than they were prolonging, then easing the lockdowns wouldn't have caused a "second hump", i.e., an increase in the death rate (even though it was summertime when the corona-truthers were assuring us "the virus won't transmit. Yeah, baby!" and even though we were "almost at herd immunity", and whatever other pipe dreams were being floated about by the just-a-flu bros).

    So yes, the lockdowns are causing deaths in some cases (suicide, etc.) and reducing it for others (delaying or canceling elective surgeries, etc.) but given the coronavirus deaths they're preventing, you need to stop pretending they've taken more lives than they've saved. Sweden, of all places, demonstrates that, given its death toll in comparison with its neighbors.

    You can't have it both ways. These magic/tragic lockdowns that increase the death toll when they're applied, and then cause another increase when they're eased are about as believable as crazy old grandpa’s barefoot walks to and from school in the bitter rain and snow when he was young, that went uphill both ways. It didn't happen like that, grandpa. That's about as believable as this magic/tragic dirt that liberals claim is the main reason black people are being held back.

    Replies: @Travis, @Polynikes

    The lockdowns did not prevent COVID deaths in New Jersey, New York , Pennsylvania…and when the lockdowns were eased in NJ, NY , PA there was no increase in COVID deaths

    Where did the easing of lockdowns result in an increase in deaths ? Name the place ? I cannot find any place which had a second wave of deaths or hospitalizations after the lockdowns were eased.

    In NY and NJ the lockdowns started in March. The schools were shuttered between March 11 and March 15 in NY and NJ , as were all churches, restaurants, malls etc.. yet the death count soared in April , peaking 3-4 weeks after the lockdowns..,, No evidence the lockdowns prevented deaths in NJ and NY.

    while the lockdowns did not reduce COVID deaths in NY and NJ , they certainly had a negative impact on the economy and health and well being of everyone else.

    We see similar results in European nations..the data show that the relative strictness of a country’s containment measures had little bearing on its membership in any of the three groups above. While Germany had milder restrictions than Spain, it has been much more successful in containing the virus. Sweden and Japan did not lockdown their nations yet faired much better than New York , new Jersey , PA, Spain, France, etc…

    There is no evidence to support lockdowns as an effective response to stop coronavirus. Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus ‘likely has its own dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures’..Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been spooked by ‘flawed scientific papers’ into imposing lockdowns which were ‘inefficient or late’ and had little effect.

    ‘Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than Covid-19 itself,’ The JP Morgan report includes graphs showing that ‘the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates’ after lockdowns were lifted. Infection rates have continued to decline even once a lag period for new infections to become visible is factored in, the report says. A second graph shows a similar effect in the US, showing that many states saw a lower rate of transmission (R) after full-scale lockdowns were ended. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html

    • Replies: @HA
    @Travis

    "The lockdowns did not prevent COVID deaths in New Jersey, New York , Pennsylvania…"

    Who says? If you want to pretend that things would not have been even worse if there had been no lockdown in those areas, your assertions won't be enough to convince me.


    "Where did the easing of lockdowns result in an increase in deaths ?"

    Texas, for one. Prior to the easing of lockdowns, the maximum death toll was about 30. It eventually quadrupled subsequently. Florida's increase looks pretty dramatic as well.

    "While Germany had milder restrictions than Spain, it has been much more successful in containing the virus. Sweden and Japan did not lockdown their nations yet faired much better than New York , new Jersey , PA, Spain, France, etc…"

    If you want a fair apples to apples comparison, look at Sweden vs. its neighbors. Similar lifestyles (some of which have more social distancing built in than others), etc.

    That's three answers given to three stupid questions, which was far more effort than was warranted. I'm not even going to bother reading the rest.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  123. @vhrm
    @HA


    Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you’re more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer fewer complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on “variolation”) but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.
     
    Yes, i tend to believe this. For example the death of those poor Chinese doctors and nurses in their 20s and 30s who died early on is consistent with their having gotten large doses over a short period since there's "no way" they would have died now.

    However IFR is also pretty low (though infection rate is pretty high) among the segments of urban society that aren't following most of the rules.


    So my impression is that the bulk of those CFR/IFR reduction benefits of reducing the dose of exposure would be achieved at a relatively small fraction of the level of restrictions that we have now.
    Mainly:
    mask up:
    - in healthcare settings, esp. around people with respiratory symptoms.
    - in nursing homes.
    - on public transit (and increase ventilation and try to reduce congestion)

    close/restrict:
    - sweaty night clubs
    - concerts and sports events, maybe maga-church services
    (and mask, lower density , increase ventilation at the ones that ARE allowed)


    Basically take the liberal line on drugs or pregnancy: "harm reduction" > "prohibition"

    Replies: @HA

    “mask up: – in healthcare settings, esp. around people with respiratory symptoms… on public transit…

    That may well be the right approach, though it’s far beyond my expertise to say. However, I don’t think the people who throw tantrums over wearing a mask at Walmart are going to suddenly gain enough IQ points to give up the snowflake routine once they get onto a subway or airplane. They proudly act like brats and refuse to wear masks on principle.

    In the case of the military, it’s not just about being young and thin-enough-to-see-your-feet as some here would like to think. It’s about being young, thin-enough, and not being permitted to act like a spoiled child when it comes to heeding quarantine and social distancing regulations. But good luck getting them to admit that.

  124. Shameless, demented and stupid is no way to go through life. Which is why, if elected, someone will “accidentally” cough on Old White Joe and send him on his way to whatever the equivalent of Valhalla is for crooked politicians.

  125. @Chrisnonymous
    @HA

    I live in an urban area in Japan.

    My gym opened again a couple months ago, and I have been going for about 6 weeks as have many other members. There is a standard security theater temperature checks and masks during workouts, but people use benches and weights next to each other and in the locker room, no social distancing or masks are enforced.

    Sometimes when I go out, like to the supermarket, I don't wear a mask (usually because I forgot it at home) and there are always some other people not wearing.

    More than half of people have stopped wearing masks outside (like on the sidewalks).

    Many businesses and schools are doing security theater, but not sure how effective it is. For example, some luxury department stores have infrared cameras at the entrances (how many people feel like non-necessity shopping when they have a high fever? and you can cover it up with Tylenol anyhow), and there are plastic "sneeze guards" between customer and staff in a lot of places, but these don't prevent infected air circulating around. Similarly, a lot of places are frequently wiping things down with cleaning sprays and paper towels, but this would not be considered adequate in a hospital, and the risk of infection from surface contact has been shown to be low anyhow. Another example: the post office won't hand packages to you even though there is no evidence of transmission via mail and even though Amazon and grocery store delivery is going strong.

    Anyhow, my point is that while you are correct about the Fox Butterfield fallacy, the "Japan is enacting and enforcing basic social distancing" should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Also, while Japan may not be an argument for doing away with all precautions, it is an argument against (1) continuing whole-population lockdowns, (2) the kind of "test everyone!" theory of testing efficacy, (3) legally mandated masks everywhere, (4) the necessity of vaccines before returning to work, and (x) other extreme claims and measures.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @HA

    I forgot to comment on restaurants:

    Many pubs are closing earlier than normal and many people are avoiding going to drinking parties with their colleagues. Frequent small drinking outings and periodic large drinking outings used to be a standard part of culture. That said, most restaurants are open and do not enforce rules about mask-wearing, such as the rules I have seen in the US that you have to wear a mask when walking between your table and the front door. I went out with my wife recently to a high-end place and the staff were wearing masks, but there were no barriers, bubbles, face shields, etc. At the low-end places we usually frequent, the staff often don’t wear masks, but the chains and franchises enforce them on staff. I have entered restaurants without masks before and not been turned away–this is the Japanese style: most people are cautious most of the time, but nobody is doing anything extreme and nobody is draconian or going into hysterics over other people’s behavior.

  126. @HA
    @Polynikes

    "Places with heavy lockdowns are much more complicated on the excess death front because strict lockdowns have likely lead to many deaths."

    But fewer deaths overall -- somehow people like you always manage to forget that part.

    If the lockdowns were ending more than they were prolonging, then easing the lockdowns wouldn't have caused a "second hump", i.e., an increase in the death rate (even though it was summertime when the corona-truthers were assuring us "the virus won't transmit. Yeah, baby!" and even though we were "almost at herd immunity", and whatever other pipe dreams were being floated about by the just-a-flu bros).

    So yes, the lockdowns are causing deaths in some cases (suicide, etc.) and reducing it for others (delaying or canceling elective surgeries, etc.) but given the coronavirus deaths they're preventing, you need to stop pretending they've taken more lives than they've saved. Sweden, of all places, demonstrates that, given its death toll in comparison with its neighbors.

    You can't have it both ways. These magic/tragic lockdowns that increase the death toll when they're applied, and then cause another increase when they're eased are about as believable as crazy old grandpa’s barefoot walks to and from school in the bitter rain and snow when he was young, that went uphill both ways. It didn't happen like that, grandpa. That's about as believable as this magic/tragic dirt that liberals claim is the main reason black people are being held back.

    Replies: @Travis, @Polynikes

    Lockdowns spread out deaths, at best. The “second hump” was regional had nothing to do with lockdowns.

  127. @Chrisnonymous
    @HA

    I live in an urban area in Japan.

    My gym opened again a couple months ago, and I have been going for about 6 weeks as have many other members. There is a standard security theater temperature checks and masks during workouts, but people use benches and weights next to each other and in the locker room, no social distancing or masks are enforced.

    Sometimes when I go out, like to the supermarket, I don't wear a mask (usually because I forgot it at home) and there are always some other people not wearing.

    More than half of people have stopped wearing masks outside (like on the sidewalks).

    Many businesses and schools are doing security theater, but not sure how effective it is. For example, some luxury department stores have infrared cameras at the entrances (how many people feel like non-necessity shopping when they have a high fever? and you can cover it up with Tylenol anyhow), and there are plastic "sneeze guards" between customer and staff in a lot of places, but these don't prevent infected air circulating around. Similarly, a lot of places are frequently wiping things down with cleaning sprays and paper towels, but this would not be considered adequate in a hospital, and the risk of infection from surface contact has been shown to be low anyhow. Another example: the post office won't hand packages to you even though there is no evidence of transmission via mail and even though Amazon and grocery store delivery is going strong.

    Anyhow, my point is that while you are correct about the Fox Butterfield fallacy, the "Japan is enacting and enforcing basic social distancing" should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Also, while Japan may not be an argument for doing away with all precautions, it is an argument against (1) continuing whole-population lockdowns, (2) the kind of "test everyone!" theory of testing efficacy, (3) legally mandated masks everywhere, (4) the necessity of vaccines before returning to work, and (x) other extreme claims and measures.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @HA

    “Anyhow, my point is that while you are correct about the Fox Butterfield fallacy, the “Japan is enacting and enforcing basic social distancing” should be taken with a grain of salt.”

    I have two things to say about that:

    1) Japan has been at this a long time. Look at the number of people who mask up in a Japanese subway or allow contact tracing and compare it to the number of people who are willing to do that here. And as a result, they haven’t had to shift things around as much, given that to a large extent, they were already at it. Differences like that matter. How many Japanese are throwing tantrums over having to wear masks at the local bodega? How many are twerking away mask-free at an Air-BnB party? Probably not as many as in the US, I’m guessing, even on a per capita basis.

    2) Japan can still have nice things. We no longer can. (Sweden is just now apparently realizing that it can no longer have some of those nice things that it used to enjoy and might have to do without going forward.) Yes, a good portion of the people who are now stuck wearing masks probably don’t need to as often as they’re asked to do so, but that’s because we’re also stuck with large numbers of more at-risk people who really do need to do that more often. And if we started passing out exemptions to the groups of people who might get by with practicing social distancing responsibly at their own behest, because they’re wealthy enough to be able to not be crammed in like everyone else, or whatever other reason, well, we both know that that wouldn’t go over well. That’s just how it goes.

    Once Japan replaces a good chunk of itself with some of the same kinds of people Westerners have been replacing themselves with, things will be different for them as well. Yeah, it’s tough coming up with one single social health policy for a country that at this point is several different continents, just as it is tough to come up with an effective set of education goals when a good chunk of the class can’t even read, but that’s what we get for doing what we’ve done to ourselves.

    But don’t worry — we all got some really cheap tacos and spicy ethnic food to wash all that down with, so in the end, it all balanced out. Diveristy wins again!

  128. (1) Masks are wider spread on trains and buses than in other places, but it is not clear that is important. The Japanese government itself defines “close contact” as partly involving exposure over a prolonged period of time. Except for NYC, I am not aware of claims that public trnasportation is an importa nt factor.

    (2) It borders on dishonesty to post an article from several months ago and claim that Sweden is “just now realizing”. Moreover, I have seen subsequent interviews with Anders Tegnell and the “Sweden regret” meme is overstated. Basically, he would not have changed much except some more protections for the elderly.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Chrisnonymous

    I have noticed the media lying a lot about Sweden. As much as they are about masks and the Hydroxy-cocktail. They keep claiming that the Hydroxy-cocktail (the cocktail part was always part of it - just referring to Hydroxycloroquine by itself is itself a lie) has been debunked by numerous studies, despite ignoring the fact that most if not all of those studies have themselves been debunked.

  129. @Buzz Mohawk
    @prosa123

    There's a bulge in my pants blocking my view. Am I gonna die?

    Replies: @Inquiring Mind, @Almost Missouri, @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Ancient Briton

    Is that a bananna, or are you just pleased to see me?

  130. @anon
    @MC

    Well to be fair the words are very similar.

    This'll be fun when he's deciding which countries to bomb.

    Replies: @Redman, @Ancient Briton

    Oh, you meant that Georgia. Never mind.

  131. @Pendragon
    @Ben tillman

    No, it's actually around 1,903,360 dead for the year as of the latest CDC number.

    Replies: @ben tillman

    Yes, you are right. Thank you.

  132. @JimDandy
    @Anonymous

    Everyone has their favorite. This is mine. (Currently):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y64dAkZ2SGw

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    It’s about that time of year, isn’t? These folks are usually safely quarantined in the desert. Only Portland would take them in 2020.

    Burning Man Canceled, But Black Rock City Still Lives For A Few Die-Hards

  133. @HA
    @Dieter Kief

    "I agree Achmed – CO-19 is not as dangerous as it looked in the first two months. By far...."

    And part of the reason for that is because people took to social distancing and mask wearing which brought down the CFR, something that this supposedly well-respected Klaus Püschel seems to have ignored.

    In other words, he deserves a lot less respect than you're giving him.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @Mr. Anon

    Mask wearing and social distancing in Germany were applied after (!) CO-19 numbers had started to decline.

    Swiss schools were hardly closed (10 days more easter holidays – that was it) – but nothing much happened in Switzerland compared to Germany, where the schools are still not fully open. Swiss crafts never stopped work. As did almost all of the Swiss factories.

    The Swiss hospitals were at no point under stress from emergency patients with CO-19. Never.

    In all of Germany, there were in the last weeks always less than 300 people in emergency care because of CO-19. This is no pandemic.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Dieter Kief

    Mask wearing and social distancing in Germany were applied after (!) CO-19 numbers had started to decline.

    And in Texas, mask wearing and social distancing restrictions were relaxed after covid-19 numbers started to decline. Guess what happened there? To the extent Germany chose another path, good for them. Plenty of other European countries that thought they had this thing licked and slacked off realized they were wrong.

    "The Swiss hospitals were at no point under stress from emergency patients with CO-19. Never."

    Again, that's real swell. To the extent that Swiss don't live in multigenerational dwellings crammed in like people in the barrios and projects of the US, which means their CFR is already significantly lower than it is in Malmo or Bergamo, good for them. It doesn't disprove or contradict a single thing I said. If I were a germophobe who stayed 10 feet away from everyone at all times, then I, too, could forego wearing a mask and pretend there was no pandemic, and still be fine. That wouldn't mean I was correct. "If people can't eat bread, well, let them simply eat cake instead like we do over at the palace" That's basically how you're talking right now.

    You've decided to double down on the Fox Butterfield fallacy with the Pauline Kael fallacy ("no one I know voted for Nixon, therefore that means he must have lost" -- though, to be fair, that one is mostly apocryphal"). Just because the pandemic didn't hit your corner of the world yet (thanks in part, I suspect, to those social distancing restrictions you speak of) doesn't mean there's no pandemic.

  134. @HA
    @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder

    "Ever heard of the concept of excess deaths?"

    If anything, excess mortality rates rates indicate that we've undercounted coronavirus deaths.

    The same goes for anyone claiming that the tolls have been inflated by creative mislabeling in cause-of-death certificates. Yes, we've all heard about the motorcycle death attributed to COVID. That was definitely a covid death overcount. But when you include all the false negatives and never-tested-for-covid deaths that resulted in a local undercount of covid mortality -- or better yet, just look at the excess mortality, as noted -- the death toll is pretty much the same (and actually somewhat larger).

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    “Excess deaths” isn’t a synonym for “COVID deaths”. Lots of non-elective surgeries have been delayed or compromised by the lockdown, for example.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-high-is-herd-immunity-level/#comment-3905256

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/a-big-question/#comment-3905673

    https://www.unz.com/article/brad-griffin-is-not-my-mommy-and-he-doesnt-get-to-decide-whether-or-not-i-can-play-outside/?showcomments#comment-3876006

    Still, I agree that the excess deaths figures show that something happened and that COVID was part of it. But they also show that the recent excess deaths were minor on a historical scale compared to earlier epidemics.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Almost Missouri

    "But they also show that the recent excess deaths were minor on a historical scale compared to earlier epidemics."


    No that's wishful thinking (not to mention a link-free assertion devoid of any links, citations, or actual evidence). In fact, excess death spikes like the one below are not "minor" especially given that they happened despite the massive precautions that were put in place, and especially since much of the death toll happened in the summertime, when respiratory viruses tend to ease up. In other words, you're dreaming. You're once again trying to play the Fox Butterfield fallacy of claiming that a virus we took inordinate pains to avoid feeling the full effect of was -- by sole virtue of the reduced death toll -- never that big a deal in the first place. The correct answer is that it was inordinately deadly despite those precautions and (based on the fact that things got worse when the restrictions were eased) would have been even worse without them.


    https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/britainexessdeath2.jpg

    And there are plenty more spikes like that one, generally somewhat larger than the official COVID count but otherwise suspiciously similar in the other excess mortality graphs that have been collected. Actually, they contain overlays of both COVID counts and excess mortality for easy comparison.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Almost Missouri

  135. @Anonymous
    Steve Sailer:

    "Only 7 COVID Deaths in US Military"

    This is incontrovertibly bullshit. You can't possibly believe this statistic. There are roughly 200,000 reported COVID deaths in the U.S(real number probably 2-4 X greater). About 3% of the U.S population are in the military. 7 deaths?

    This is the kind of statistic that is so far-fetched that it should be immediately discarded as worthless.

    Replies: @Adam Smith, @Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder, @AnotherDad, @D. K., @anon, @vhrm, @Alden, @Achmed E. Newman, @Ben tillman, @BenKenobi, @Hippopotamusdrome

    200,000 reported COVID deaths

    Need to track age cohorts, though. Few 85 year olds hauling oxygen tanks in their packs in Afghanistan.

    25-34 years All deaths involving COVID-19: 1,360

    And the average enlisted member was just over age 27

    1.3 million military ÷ 330 million total = 1 ÷ 100
    1,360 COVID ÷ 100 = 13.6

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    Corrected: 1.3 ÷ 330 = 1 ÷ 254
    1,360 ÷ 254 = 5.4

  136. @Mr. Anon
    @Almost Missouri

    In that CDC release of data (which included figures they had received up through 8/29, since updated to 9/5), in only about 6% of "COVID19" deaths was COVID19 listed as the only cause of death. Among the remaining 94%, for which other causes of death were listed, the average number of co-morbidities was 2.6. As Steve pointed out, "co-morbidity" does not mean cause of death but rather "underlying health condition", such as diabetes, obesity, heart-disease, chronic lung-disease, etc.

    Among the additional causes of death, "cardiac arrest" was listed as a cause of death in nearly 22,000 cases. Now, some people probably contacted SARS-COV-2, came down with COVID19, got very sick, and then died of heart-attacks, so Coronavirus was definitely a contributing cause or even the main cause. But out of those 22,000, how many people just died of heart-attacks - from, for example, being stressed out due to the 24/7 diet of Corona fear-porn - and were subsequently found to have Coronavirus, or even were just "presumed" to have it (as that is good enough according to CDC guidelines), but Coronavirus didn't really have anything to do with their death? A lot, I suspect.

    Another category in that list is "Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events", coming in at 5,692 cases. These are your falls, drug overdoses and - yes, guest007 - motorcycle accidents (that really happened).

    So it isn't that only about 10,000 people died of Coronavirus. It is more than that - considerably more. But probably not as many as claimed. And, so far at least, entirely in line with the numbers of people who died during the Asian Flu pandemic of 1957/58 and the Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1968/69.

    So - yes - I agree with you that it is a tempest in a teapot. Actually, it's been more than that - a catastophic completely crazy freakout.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Thank you, Mr. Anon, and I agree with all you wrote.

    My point with Alden’s comment was that in one simple statistic (average US age at “normal” death 78; average US age at COVID death 78.5) the overreaction of the lockdown is made obvious.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Almost Missouri

    Yes, that is a telling statistic.

  137. @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Anonymous

    200,000 reported COVID deaths

     

    Need to track age cohorts, though. Few 85 year olds hauling oxygen tanks in their packs in Afghanistan.

    25-34 years All deaths involving COVID-19: 1,360

    And the average enlisted member was just over age 27

    1.3 million military ÷ 330 million total = 1 ÷ 100
    1,360 COVID ÷ 100 = 13.6

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    Corrected: 1.3 ÷ 330 = 1 ÷ 254
    1,360 ÷ 254 = 5.4

  138. @Jack D
    The NY Times covers for Sleepy Joe:

    At one point, Mr. Biden appeared to mix up the approximate number of military service members who have died of the coronavirus and the number of people in Michigan who have died from it. As he read from notes, he said that 6,000 service members had died of the virus; in fact, the number is seven.
     
    When Trump misstates something, he is lying - "Trump FALSELY stated X". But when Sleep Joe gets it wrong, he just mixed up some numbers. He's not senile or anything, he just made a mistake reading "notes" off of the teleprompter . Could happen to anyone.

    If Joe had stopped to think (not something that he is known for) he would have understood that 6,000 could not possibly meet the smell test. The US military has approx. 1.3 million active duty personnel, or .36% of the US population. Total Covid deaths are (allegedly) around 190,000, so even if military members were dying at the same rate at the rest of the population (unlikely since the general population includes lots of elderly and the military doesn't) they would have experienced around 700 deaths. So Joe's number was an order of magnitude too high even if you did not account for age and health status. 6,000 deaths would have been more than 3% of all Covid deaths. If he had said 600, he still would have been way wrong, but it would have been a somewhat plausible error. 6,000 was so far beyond the realm of the possible that he should have asked someone to double check that number before reading it off the teleprompter. The fact that it made it to the teleprompter shows that innumeracy in the Biden staff runs deep.

    The actual # of deaths confirms what we have known for a long time. Covid kills mostly the elderly and also some (mostly minority) middle aged people with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and obesity. On very rare occasions it will kill a younger person formerly in good health. Since the military consists mostly of the latter group, Covid deaths were rare. In my county of around 800,000 people, Covid has killed zero people under age 30 and zero non-blacks under age 40 (2 blacks in the 30-39 category died). The highest # of deaths were in the 80-89 decile and the 2nd highest was in the 90+ group, these two groups accounting for more than half of all deaths.

    We destroyed the entire US economy mostly to save some old people, many of whom are in nursing homes and on their last legs already. Maybe this is the right thing to do anyway, but based on speeches like Biden's, I don't think that there is any popular awareness that that is what we are really doing. The MSM will highlight a rare death of a young person and make that seem as if he or she is a typical victim. I'll bet that if you asked people what the average age of a covid victim is, no one would guess 80.

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    he would have understood that 6,000 could not possibly meet the smell test

  139. @Mr. Anon
    @El Dato

    The CDC tells people to stay 6 ft. apart. In Europe the "authorities" tell people to stay 1.5 meters apart, which is just under 5 ft. Why don't they say 1.8 meters? The arbitrariness of it indicates it's all bulls**t. Likewise the deal with face coverings. Cloth masks are fine. N95 masks are okay now, but used to not be okay, because only health care professionals were supposed to have them as they are precious. The fact that there is an enormous difference between homemade cloth masks, bandanas, paper surgical masks, and N95 masks makes no never mind. Even plastic face-shields are okay, despite the fact that they they are completely useless in terms of filtering out aerosol droplets. It is health security theater.

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    6′ because when you coof the spit goes 6′. They did a study.

    What if you just withdraw 6′ to coof then go back? What if you coof into your shirt? What if you’re not coofing at all?

  140. @HA
    @Buzz Mohawk

    "How does this explain the very low Case Fatality Rate?"

    Wearing masks (and taking basic social distanging precautions) reduces the CFR as well as the transmission rate. (see also this earlier animal study). Masks and other such precautions not only make you less likely to catch the disease, the fact that you are less likely to get a big dose of the virus means that even if you do get sick, you're more likely to be asymptomatic or suffer few complications (and also less likely to give a big dose to anyone else). This is still a somewhat controversial subject (search on "variolation") but so far the concept seems to be panning out with coronavirus.

    I've said this before, but anyone who claims that the low CFR we're seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services, or in countries like Switzerland or Japan) is somehow an argument for doing away with such restrictions has just committed a classic Fox Butterfield fallacy (as in, "why are we building more and more prisons even though crime rates are going down?").

    To repeat: if anyone wants to ask "Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?", he should first stop and realize that he just answered his own stupid question.

    Replies: @vhrm, @Kratoklastes, @Chrisnonymous, @Hippopotamusdrome

    the low CFR we’re seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services

    Wat? Social distancing in the armed services? Do they like, tape an X on every other bunk in the submarines now?

    “Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?”

    Remy: People Will Die!

    • Replies: @HA
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    "Do they like, tape an X on every other bunk in the submarines now?"

    That's a pretty good question, actually, but regardless of the answer, I'm pretty sure they keep track of who sleeps in what bunk -- i.e. contact tracing to the max -- so that if someone gets sick, they and those around them are put in a quarantine that no amount of tantrum-throwing can lift.

    That may just be good enough to keep a lid on this thing. But if you'd rather be subjected to that kind of treatment than wear a mask, well, be careful what you wish for.

  141. @Travis
    @res

    https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/mc-nws-coronavirus-first-military-death-20200331-p4ogar3jazhopiwtn6tg2qmy4u-story.html

    Hickok had battled lung cancer. he lived in Pennsylvania and worked in Connecticut as a physician assistant. He was 57 years old. He was the first COVID military death, though he was in the reserves and not active at the time.

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/09/03/7th-us-service-member-has-died-from-covid-19/ This link shows all the military deaths were over the age of 34. The average age was 46. Most of them were in the reserves. From their pictures , some of them appear over-weight.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

    Thanks.

  142. @Achmed E. Newman
    @AndrewR

    Aaah, man, it's confusing as hell with you 2 Andrews. I completely agree, Andrew R. I was kind of wondering when I wrote Andrew M. that long reply, is he really in good shape? If so, then he is easily fit for the military. I've seen plenty of people 20-30 lb. overweight getting off the plane to start basic training.

    Replies: @AndrewR

    I have seniority over him on here but it’s all good.

    I would recommend going to basic training as fit as you can be but it’s also designed so that pretty much anyone who passes the pre-enlistment exams can finish basic training. The sleep deprivation, the psychological abuse and the unbelievably short meal times are all much worse than the physical exertion of basic training, at least in the USAF.

    Actually I wouldn’t recommend joining the US military at all, especially in 2020 as they are forcing all the wokeness* on people in addition to the wars for Israel, but if one does enlist then one should strive for a high fitness level before boot camp

    *from the official Twitter feed of the Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force:

    “This, my friends, is my greatest fear, not that I will be killed by a white police officer (believe me my heart starts racing like most other Black men in America when I see those blue lights behind me) But that I will wake up to a report that one of our Black Airmen has died at the hands of a white police officer… I am George Floyd…I am Philando Castile, I am Michael Brown, I am Alton Sterling, I am Tamir Rice.”

  143. @Travis
    @res

    https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/mc-nws-coronavirus-first-military-death-20200331-p4ogar3jazhopiwtn6tg2qmy4u-story.html

    Hickok had battled lung cancer. he lived in Pennsylvania and worked in Connecticut as a physician assistant. He was 57 years old. He was the first COVID military death, though he was in the reserves and not active at the time.

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/09/03/7th-us-service-member-has-died-from-covid-19/ This link shows all the military deaths were over the age of 34. The average age was 46. Most of them were in the reserves. From their pictures , some of them appear over-weight.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

    Thanks.

    I wonder if Hickock might have survived if he had gotten sick later after they had figured out that maybe ventilators were not the best solution. Note that March 25 was a Wednesday.

    But the 57-year-old New Jersey Army National Guardsman, a physician assistant who lived in Bangor, took a bad turn. On March 25, five days after admission, he was placed on a ventilator to help him breathe.

    On Saturday, Hickok died.

    But he was worried, too. Ventilators are an intensive treatment, and it can be hard to wean patients off of them.

    “He was not a fan of ventilators,” Scott-Peavler said. “He said ‘Sis, if they put me on it, I’m gone.’ He knew it. He’d seen it.”

    Anything on this part of your original comment? “1 of them were diabetic and 2 had were obese and one was fighting HIV”

    P.S. This study of veterans might be of interest.
    https://www.aidsmap.com/news/jul-2020/no-link-between-hiv-status-and-coronavirus-outcomes-large-us-study

  144. @J.Ross
    @Dieter Kief

    In the early days too there was a German doctor (forget his name, sorry) who spoke in a video very clearly about how none of the lockdown proposals were justified and how the severity of the threat was far from certain. He and Didier Raoult of France have been totally vindicated. But in Nancy Pelosi's defense there's some good food in Chinatown.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    Could have been Wolfgang Wodarg – this video is from the 13th of March – (or Professor em. Sucharit Bhakti)

    It seems about quite right still. (In the beginning, it took me some time to see as clearly as he did, because I could not make sense of what had taken place especially in Italy, Spain and Alsace/France. I think now, this is clear too and thus what could have been a counter-argument against Wodargs analysis isn’t one any longer (or bettter: Never hs been).

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Dieter Kief

    That's him, the uneducated Trump supporter with stock in the hydroxychloroquine company and an irrational fear of undemocratic rule.

  145. @Almost Missouri
    @Mr. Anon

    Thank you, Mr. Anon, and I agree with all you wrote.

    My point with Alden's comment was that in one simple statistic (average US age at "normal" death 78; average US age at COVID death 78.5) the overreaction of the lockdown is made obvious.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Yes, that is a telling statistic.

  146. @HA
    @Dieter Kief

    "I agree Achmed – CO-19 is not as dangerous as it looked in the first two months. By far...."

    And part of the reason for that is because people took to social distancing and mask wearing which brought down the CFR, something that this supposedly well-respected Klaus Püschel seems to have ignored.

    In other words, he deserves a lot less respect than you're giving him.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @Mr. Anon

    Sure, that cloth mask with a filtering efficiency that varies anywhere from 10% – 90% made all the difference.

    The only thing that brought down the the CFR was the infection of a wider array of people who were less susceptible to developing the disease.

    But – by all means – keep holding on to your “COVID-19 is the great existential threat of our time” fantasy. It might comfort you while strolling past the food-bank lines in your boarded-up, burned-out city.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "Sure, that cloth mask with a filtering efficiency that varies anywhere from 10% – 90% made all the difference."

    I think handwashing is generally a good idea, even though various techniques probably range from 10% to 90% of optimum. If you have an aversion to that, too, it wouldn't surprise me, and it would actually explain a lot about your comments. By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it. But if all you can provide are more cranky link-free assertions, those mean little to me.


    "keep holding on to your “COVID-19 is the great existential threat of our time” fantasy."

    Given how grumpy you seem to be today -- I'm guessing it's getting past naptime, eh? -- I'll buy you a box of Snickers -- or we can donate the cost thereof to the moderator -- if you can find in my history any comment I wrote in which I claim that COVID-19 is the "great existential threat of our time" as you put it. You won't get anywhere no matter how fast you ctr-F, but it'll be far more productive than screaming at your PC terminal about how your world has gone to pot. (I'm assuming you're already done with today's tantrum-throwing session outside of Walmart.)

    And be sure to wipe down that spittle-stained screen and keyboard. There might be some covid there, or who knows what else, if my hunch about your hand-washing technique is valid.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Mr. Anon

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Mr. Anon


    ...comfort you while strolling past the food-bank lines in your boarded-up, burned-out city.
     
    Food banks, boarded up businesses, and freezer trucks full of dead bodies. Don't forget the body bags piling up, right? RIGHT!?

    I like the scenes in Contagion toward the end where the trash is all lying around, not picked up. Widespread social dissolution and failure of infrastructure and services. It could happen at any moment right now!

    One connection I haven't seen anybody make is that the Jude Law character who gets arrested for selling scam treatments also goes around wearing a ridiculous plastic bubble over his head. In the end, who will be America's COVID Jude Laws? The HCQ advocates or the masks and plastic shields fanatics?
  147. @theMann
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The Mother of all Scams. It is even worse than the charts show:

    1. There, to date, has been no, as in not one, mapping of "covid-19" under an electron microscope. No chemical structure, no "map" of the Virus. *(My point, along with many others making this point: it doesn't exist.)
    2. Both the WHO and the CDC's have an official policy of NEVER doing an autopsy on a covid-19 death.
    3. Death Certificates have been routinely altered, as in fraud committed, two weeks after the original death report is issued. Of course, at that point the body has been cremated or buried, so no way to invalidate the fraudulent Death Certificate.
    4. The head of the CDCs has publicly stated that the Deaths from the (illegal, War Crimes) lockdowns are more than twice the Covid-19 deaths. I have previously posted the video.
    5. The studies that masks don't work runs to the low hundreds, indeed, they are counterproductive as genuinely unhealthy. By the time people start loosing teeth, getting Asthma, and catching TB it will be a little late for I told you so's.
    6. From the top down, this tyranny was pre-planned - over one hundred nations with the same Media Lies, church closings, hysterically fear mongering - all of it self evident lies from the beginning, massively coordinated.


    But you know what, I just don't care any more, because I have realized a fundamental truth. The world is divided into the mass of shit-eaters, and the few who are men. And we just can't intersect with each other. Let every one of the shit-eaters get what is coming to them, because they do have it coming to them. When you line up for those "vaccines" that turn you into dog-boy and pig-girl, I will laugh out loud watching you turn into something less than human.

    Replies: @HA

    “No chemical structure, no “map” of the Virus.”

    Actually, it was sequenced months ago. That’s how German doctors came up with one of the first tests. You don’t remember the (quickly quashed) conspiracy claims about how its protein spikes were suspiciously similar to HIV? You don’t remember all that work tracking down the different strains of the virus according to how the genetic strains differed? No?

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome (click on the “view display” button).

  148. @Chrisnonymous
    (1) Masks are wider spread on trains and buses than in other places, but it is not clear that is important. The Japanese government itself defines "close contact" as partly involving exposure over a prolonged period of time. Except for NYC, I am not aware of claims that public trnasportation is an importa nt factor.

    (2) It borders on dishonesty to post an article from several months ago and claim that Sweden is "just now realizing". Moreover, I have seen subsequent interviews with Anders Tegnell and the "Sweden regret" meme is overstated. Basically, he would not have changed much except some more protections for the elderly.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    I have noticed the media lying a lot about Sweden. As much as they are about masks and the Hydroxy-cocktail. They keep claiming that the Hydroxy-cocktail (the cocktail part was always part of it – just referring to Hydroxycloroquine by itself is itself a lie) has been debunked by numerous studies, despite ignoring the fact that most if not all of those studies have themselves been debunked.

  149. @Hippopotamusdrome
    @HA



    the low CFR we’re seeing in areas where people enact and enforce (or naturally follow) basic social distancing (e.g. in the armed services

     

    Wat? Social distancing in the armed services? Do they like, tape an X on every other bunk in the submarines now?


    “Why are we bothering with all this social distancing if so few people are dying?”

     

    Remy: People Will Die!

    Replies: @HA

    “Do they like, tape an X on every other bunk in the submarines now?”

    That’s a pretty good question, actually, but regardless of the answer, I’m pretty sure they keep track of who sleeps in what bunk — i.e. contact tracing to the max — so that if someone gets sick, they and those around them are put in a quarantine that no amount of tantrum-throwing can lift.

    That may just be good enough to keep a lid on this thing. But if you’d rather be subjected to that kind of treatment than wear a mask, well, be careful what you wish for.

  150. @Dieter Kief
    @HA

    Mask wearing and social distancing in Germany were applied after (!) CO-19 numbers had started to decline.

    Swiss schools were hardly closed (10 days more easter holidays - that was it) - but nothing much happened in Switzerland compared to Germany, where the schools are still not fully open. Swiss crafts never stopped work. As did almost all of the Swiss factories.

    The Swiss hospitals were at no point under stress from emergency patients with CO-19. Never.

    In all of Germany, there were in the last weeks always less than 300 people in emergency care because of CO-19. This is no pandemic.

    Replies: @HA

    Mask wearing and social distancing in Germany were applied after (!) CO-19 numbers had started to decline.

    And in Texas, mask wearing and social distancing restrictions were relaxed after covid-19 numbers started to decline. Guess what happened there? To the extent Germany chose another path, good for them. Plenty of other European countries that thought they had this thing licked and slacked off realized they were wrong.

    “The Swiss hospitals were at no point under stress from emergency patients with CO-19. Never.”

    Again, that’s real swell. To the extent that Swiss don’t live in multigenerational dwellings crammed in like people in the barrios and projects of the US, which means their CFR is already significantly lower than it is in Malmo or Bergamo, good for them. It doesn’t disprove or contradict a single thing I said. If I were a germophobe who stayed 10 feet away from everyone at all times, then I, too, could forego wearing a mask and pretend there was no pandemic, and still be fine. That wouldn’t mean I was correct. “If people can’t eat bread, well, let them simply eat cake instead like we do over at the palace” That’s basically how you’re talking right now.

    You’ve decided to double down on the Fox Butterfield fallacy with the Pauline Kael fallacy (“no one I know voted for Nixon, therefore that means he must have lost” — though, to be fair, that one is mostly apocryphal”). Just because the pandemic didn’t hit your corner of the world yet (thanks in part, I suspect, to those social distancing restrictions you speak of) doesn’t mean there’s no pandemic.

  151. @Anonymouse
    I just had a happy thought - or maybe just a brain fart. Problem with grasping the elephant of covid in the US is that we are too close to it. Too many variables. But what about Israel? A certain percentage of commenters here explain almost every nefarious occurence to be caused by the great Sanhedrin plot. Lock-down in the US is good for the bankers/jews, etc. etc. that sort of thing.

    Let's look abroad at Sweden and Denmark and how they dealt with covid and the temporal reciprocity of how their respective measures worked. But maybe even in Sweden and Denmark, in their diametrically opposed courses of action, they too did what they did, as puppets, what their jew masters wanted them to do, etc. etc.

    One country alone is dealing with the covid pandemic on their own hook, not beholden to the jews, the Rothschilds, etc. and that is Israel. https://www.debka.com/mivzak/covid-19-infection-breaks-another-record-3904-in-one-day/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=covid-19-infection-breaks-another-record-3904-in-one-day

    Israel has about 9 million inhabitants. I suggest they are the best guinea pig dataset for understanding covid as time goes on and, soon, the efficacy of vacines.

    Replies: @Anonymouse

    Israel is said to be having a covid breakout. And Jewish New Year and the Day of Atonement is near. And their large Orthodox population is not amenable to lockdowns, masks, social-distancing no more than the Orthodox in Brooklyn. They hold large wedding parties and funerals and their infection rate is quite high.

    Update of 9/11 from the Israeli Debka website –

    A full two-week lockdown starts next week subject to cabinet approval
    Sep 11, 2020 @ 11:29

    The first of the three-stage closure is due to begin next week before the New Year festival, during which non-essential work and business will be barred, including restaurants, bars and entertainment. Shopping malls and schools will be closed, except for remote instruction. Movement outside the home will be confined to 500 meters, excepting only shopping for essentials. Prayers and other gatherings will follow the Gamzu prescriptions of 10 people indoors and 20 outside.

    Certain relaxations will beintrdouced in the second stage, with business allowed to operate during the day and movement allowed outside the home – although not from town to town. The third stage will depend on the success of the first two in containing the emergency of the out-of-control rise of coronavirus infection. The full cabinet is due to approve this lockdown proposal on Sunday.

  152. @Dieter Kief
    @J.Ross

    Could have been Wolfgang Wodarg - this video is from the 13th of March - (or Professor em. Sucharit Bhakti)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

    It seems about quite right still. (In the beginning, it took me some time to see as clearly as he did, because I could not make sense of what had taken place especially in Italy, Spain and Alsace/France. I think now, this is clear too and thus what could have been a counter-argument against Wodargs analysis isn't one any longer (or bettter: Never hs been).

    Replies: @J.Ross

    That’s him, the uneducated Trump supporter with stock in the hydroxychloroquine company and an irrational fear of undemocratic rule.

  153. @Almost Missouri
    @HA

    "Excess deaths" isn't a synonym for "COVID deaths". Lots of non-elective surgeries have been delayed or compromised by the lockdown, for example.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-high-is-herd-immunity-level/#comment-3905256

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/a-big-question/#comment-3905673

    https://www.unz.com/article/brad-griffin-is-not-my-mommy-and-he-doesnt-get-to-decide-whether-or-not-i-can-play-outside/?showcomments#comment-3876006

    Still, I agree that the excess deaths figures show that something happened and that COVID was part of it. But they also show that the recent excess deaths were minor on a historical scale compared to earlier epidemics.

    Replies: @HA

    “But they also show that the recent excess deaths were minor on a historical scale compared to earlier epidemics.”

    No that’s wishful thinking (not to mention a link-free assertion devoid of any links, citations, or actual evidence). In fact, excess death spikes like the one below are not “minor” especially given that they happened despite the massive precautions that were put in place, and especially since much of the death toll happened in the summertime, when respiratory viruses tend to ease up. In other words, you’re dreaming. You’re once again trying to play the Fox Butterfield fallacy of claiming that a virus we took inordinate pains to avoid feeling the full effect of was — by sole virtue of the reduced death toll — never that big a deal in the first place. The correct answer is that it was inordinately deadly despite those precautions and (based on the fact that things got worse when the restrictions were eased) would have been even worse without them.

    And there are plenty more spikes like that one, generally somewhat larger than the official COVID count but otherwise suspiciously similar in the other excess mortality graphs that have been collected. Actually, they contain overlays of both COVID counts and excess mortality for easy comparison.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @HA

    You are doing a straw-man-like thing. The commenter said the excess deaths were not significant compared to other epidemics and you trying to refute him with a graph showing the current excess deaths compared to the average, not compared to other epidemics.

    Replies: @HA

    , @Almost Missouri
    @HA


    that’s wishful thinking (not to mention a link-free assertion devoid of any links, citations, or actual evidence). In fact, excess death spikes like the one below are not “minor”
     
    I didn't include links to Black Death or the Spanish Flu because they are too well known to need special reference. Also, they predate the highly precise (if sometimes inaccurate) record keeping that characterizes modern medicine.

    Even in the nice graphic you kindly provided, you can see that there have been higher spikes than 2020 in the recent past, despite the fact that the chart begins after the last the serious pandemic, in 1968.

    especially given that they happened despite the massive precautions that were put in place,
     
    Not quite. There was widespread and officially encouraged resistance to precautions such as closing borders, masks and quarantines until late March or even April, by which time the illness was already pretty well seeded everywhere.

    and especially since much of the death toll happened in the summertime, when respiratory viruses tend to ease up.
     
    The big rise in the death toll happened April-June, i.e., Springtime, which is late but not unusual for a flu season. In the US it was an unusually cold Spring.

    You’re once again trying to play the Fox Butterfield fallacy
     
    The flipside of the Fox Butterfield fallacy is the Bear Patrol fallacy.

    Replies: @HA

  154. @Kratoklastes
    @anonymous


    It means if you are in good fitness and 30 year old and the virus is allowed to run wild there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying within a year from this?
     
    You've missed a bunch of aspects of military life that diverge from the norm and generate tilts towards increased spread of any illness - for example, living in close quarters with your squad (for the Navy shipboard 'close quarters' is an understatement).

    Besides, 1 in 10,000 is trivial: it's in line with... wait for it ... the 'flu, bro.

    The median military member does not have 'good' fitness: they have adequate fitness.

    Fitness standards in militaries the world over have taken the same path as US high school grades - i.e., the standard to get an 'A' has declined, and the standard to get a 'pass' is embarrassingly low. (It's higher for combat arms, but even there the standard is worse than it used to be: turns out that even unemployable youth are pretty risk-averse when it comes to pointless wars).


    (When I was a soldier, standards were higher. We were all fitter than Olympic ninjas and smarter than Jedis... at least that's how I remember it. We wuz good-lookin', too. You whippersnappers don't know how easy you've got it... now get off my lawn).

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    I think some standards have declined but others have changed due to better understanding of relationship of fitness and performance. For example, asking Navy SEALS to be able to be good long-distance-while-unencumbered runners doesn’t make sense if what they need to do in combat is sprint for short distances while carrying lots of equipment.

  155. @HA
    @Almost Missouri

    "But they also show that the recent excess deaths were minor on a historical scale compared to earlier epidemics."


    No that's wishful thinking (not to mention a link-free assertion devoid of any links, citations, or actual evidence). In fact, excess death spikes like the one below are not "minor" especially given that they happened despite the massive precautions that were put in place, and especially since much of the death toll happened in the summertime, when respiratory viruses tend to ease up. In other words, you're dreaming. You're once again trying to play the Fox Butterfield fallacy of claiming that a virus we took inordinate pains to avoid feeling the full effect of was -- by sole virtue of the reduced death toll -- never that big a deal in the first place. The correct answer is that it was inordinately deadly despite those precautions and (based on the fact that things got worse when the restrictions were eased) would have been even worse without them.


    https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/britainexessdeath2.jpg

    And there are plenty more spikes like that one, generally somewhat larger than the official COVID count but otherwise suspiciously similar in the other excess mortality graphs that have been collected. Actually, they contain overlays of both COVID counts and excess mortality for easy comparison.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Almost Missouri

    You are doing a straw-man-like thing. The commenter said the excess deaths were not significant compared to other epidemics and you trying to refute him with a graph showing the current excess deaths compared to the average, not compared to other epidemics.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Chrisnonymous

    "You are doing a straw-man-like thing. The commenter said the excess deaths were not significant compared to other epidemics and you trying to refute him with a graph showing the current excess deaths compared to the average, not compared to other epidemics."

    The graph goes back 50 years, so it contains numerous other bad flu years, including the 1968-9 Hong Kong flue epidemic. Also the 2009 epidemic, which, by the way, recently was claimed to have been undercounted by a factor of 10, though I suspect the graph doesn't contain those adjustments. A graph of other locations would show effects of ebola, zika, and other such epidemics though that didn't make it into the UK.

    In short, if this thing is large on the scale of anything we've seen in half a century, and as the graph indicates it most definitely is, I'm not straw-manning anything. Again, if all this is supposed to be argumentation in good faith on your part, you have a curiously selective way of identifying who is and isn't strawmanning, but I think we both realize at this point, that you're not interested in that.

    Early intelligence estimates put the unmitigated death toll of this thing at half a million. That's more or less what we're talking about. Sure, there are epidemics that have taken out ten times that and more, so in that sense, yeah, this is much smaller, but that doesn't mean half a million -- which is increasingly looking like an underestimate -- aren't worth trying to save or that they are, under any sane assessment, "not significant". If you're honestly against people twisting things, you need to take a closer look at the kinds of comments you are choosing to defend.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

  156. @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    Sure, that cloth mask with a filtering efficiency that varies anywhere from 10% - 90% made all the difference.

    The only thing that brought down the the CFR was the infection of a wider array of people who were less susceptible to developing the disease.

    But - by all means - keep holding on to your "COVID-19 is the great existential threat of our time" fantasy. It might comfort you while strolling past the food-bank lines in your boarded-up, burned-out city.

    Replies: @HA, @Chrisnonymous

    “Sure, that cloth mask with a filtering efficiency that varies anywhere from 10% – 90% made all the difference.”

    I think handwashing is generally a good idea, even though various techniques probably range from 10% to 90% of optimum. If you have an aversion to that, too, it wouldn’t surprise me, and it would actually explain a lot about your comments. By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it. But if all you can provide are more cranky link-free assertions, those mean little to me.

    “keep holding on to your “COVID-19 is the great existential threat of our time” fantasy.”

    Given how grumpy you seem to be today — I’m guessing it’s getting past naptime, eh? — I’ll buy you a box of Snickers — or we can donate the cost thereof to the moderator — if you can find in my history any comment I wrote in which I claim that COVID-19 is the “great existential threat of our time” as you put it. You won’t get anywhere no matter how fast you ctr-F, but it’ll be far more productive than screaming at your PC terminal about how your world has gone to pot. (I’m assuming you’re already done with today’s tantrum-throwing session outside of Walmart.)

    And be sure to wipe down that spittle-stained screen and keyboard. There might be some covid there, or who knows what else, if my hunch about your hand-washing technique is valid.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @HA


    By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it.
     
    One paper you linked to in NEJM was an opinion piece that concluded that in order to examine the hypotheses that masks prevent transmission and reduce disease severity, more studies need to be done.

    The other "paper" you linked to was not even a peer-reviewed article. It was an announcement on a website of what looks to me to be unpublished/unreviewed claims as reported in the South China Morning Post (a Chinese-friendly media outlet). The supposedly-existing research was announced by a Hong Kong researcher who said "the team carried out the study as the necessity of wearing masks, something he had long advocated, was being challenged worldwide, including by the World Health Organisation." So, someone with a pre-existing belief announces some unpublished new findings to support his previously-advocated beliefs. Yeah, that's convincing.

    I think it is very logical that some kinds of masks should do something to lessen transmission, but these are two of the lamest and weakest pieces of evidence I've seen (actually, they aren't even really evidence at all, not being scientific studies).

    Several months ago, I conducted a long review of masks for myself. The problem--and this is why the CDC's prior-to-COVID19-established recommendations were not in favor of widespread masking--is that the research on masking is almost all about hospitals and laboratories, not communities. The two are very different--one by trained professionals in controlled settings, the other by every bumpkin anywhere.

    It seems likely that masks can prevent sick people from coughing out droplets, but other than that, the evidence very, very weak that masks can protect you. Further, saying that works out in the wider world is just assumption.. Drawing conclusions from "countries that mask" is the lowest level of science data--epidemiology--open to all kinds of confounders and not much better than speculation.

    I think it is a good idea to keep masking, especially around vulnerable groups like older people, based on the logic. But there is not much science there.

    Replies: @HA

    , @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    I think handwashing is generally a good idea, even though various techniques probably range from 10% to 90% of optimum. If you have an aversion to that, too, it wouldn’t surprise me, and it would actually explain a lot about your comments.
     
    I have no objection to hand-washing for infection control. I have no objection to wearing masks. I object to governments mandating their use.

    By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it. But if all you can provide are more cranky link-free assertions, those mean little to me.

    Masks reduce COVID-19 transmission between hamsters

     

    On that second one, how did they get the Hamsters to wear masks? But of course, I joke - they used a surgical mask as a filter between two cages. Probably with a tight-fitting seal, although what they revealed doesn't allow one to say. Pictures or diagrams of the experimental set up would be nice. Not exactly the same as wearing a mask.

    But, by all means, if you Hamsters want to wear masks all the time, have at it.

    Anyway, you want studies - here are some studies:

    https://swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/


    And be sure to wipe down that spittle-stained screen and keyboard. There might be some covid there, or who knows what else, if my hunch about your hand-washing technique is valid.
     
    Based on your posts, I'd conclude that you don't wipe.
  157. @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    Sure, that cloth mask with a filtering efficiency that varies anywhere from 10% - 90% made all the difference.

    The only thing that brought down the the CFR was the infection of a wider array of people who were less susceptible to developing the disease.

    But - by all means - keep holding on to your "COVID-19 is the great existential threat of our time" fantasy. It might comfort you while strolling past the food-bank lines in your boarded-up, burned-out city.

    Replies: @HA, @Chrisnonymous

    …comfort you while strolling past the food-bank lines in your boarded-up, burned-out city.

    Food banks, boarded up businesses, and freezer trucks full of dead bodies. Don’t forget the body bags piling up, right? RIGHT!?

    I like the scenes in Contagion toward the end where the trash is all lying around, not picked up. Widespread social dissolution and failure of infrastructure and services. It could happen at any moment right now!

    One connection I haven’t seen anybody make is that the Jude Law character who gets arrested for selling scam treatments also goes around wearing a ridiculous plastic bubble over his head. In the end, who will be America’s COVID Jude Laws? The HCQ advocates or the masks and plastic shields fanatics?

  158. @Travis
    @HA

    The lockdowns did not prevent COVID deaths in New Jersey, New York , Pennsylvania...and when the lockdowns were eased in NJ, NY , PA there was no increase in COVID deaths

    Where did the easing of lockdowns result in an increase in deaths ? Name the place ? I cannot find any place which had a second wave of deaths or hospitalizations after the lockdowns were eased.

    In NY and NJ the lockdowns started in March. The schools were shuttered between March 11 and March 15 in NY and NJ , as were all churches, restaurants, malls etc.. yet the death count soared in April , peaking 3-4 weeks after the lockdowns..,, No evidence the lockdowns prevented deaths in NJ and NY.

    while the lockdowns did not reduce COVID deaths in NY and NJ , they certainly had a negative impact on the economy and health and well being of everyone else.

    We see similar results in European nations..the data show that the relative strictness of a country’s containment measures had little bearing on its membership in any of the three groups above. While Germany had milder restrictions than Spain, it has been much more successful in containing the virus. Sweden and Japan did not lockdown their nations yet faired much better than New York , new Jersey , PA, Spain, France, etc...

    There is no evidence to support lockdowns as an effective response to stop coronavirus. Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus 'likely has its own dynamics' which are 'unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures'..Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been spooked by 'flawed scientific papers' into imposing lockdowns which were 'inefficient or late' and had little effect.

    'Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than Covid-19 itself,' The JP Morgan report includes graphs showing that 'the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates' after lockdowns were lifted. Infection rates have continued to decline even once a lag period for new infections to become visible is factored in, the report says. A second graph shows a similar effect in the US, showing that many states saw a lower rate of transmission (R) after full-scale lockdowns were ended. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html

    Replies: @HA

    “The lockdowns did not prevent COVID deaths in New Jersey, New York , Pennsylvania…”

    Who says? If you want to pretend that things would not have been even worse if there had been no lockdown in those areas, your assertions won’t be enough to convince me.

    “Where did the easing of lockdowns result in an increase in deaths ?”

    Texas, for one. Prior to the easing of lockdowns, the maximum death toll was about 30. It eventually quadrupled subsequently. Florida’s increase looks pretty dramatic as well.

    “While Germany had milder restrictions than Spain, it has been much more successful in containing the virus. Sweden and Japan did not lockdown their nations yet faired much better than New York , new Jersey , PA, Spain, France, etc…”

    If you want a fair apples to apples comparison, look at Sweden vs. its neighbors. Similar lifestyles (some of which have more social distancing built in than others), etc.

    That’s three answers given to three stupid questions, which was far more effort than was warranted. I’m not even going to bother reading the rest.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    Who says? If you want to pretend that things would not have been even worse if there had been no lockdown in those areas, your assertions won’t be enough to convince me.
     
    Do you guys ever look at any real f**king numbers? Sweden's death rate was lower than Englands. It was lower than that of Belgium, Italy, and Spain. It was lower than that of New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Japan's was much lower.

    Degree of lock-down is entirely uncorrelated with death rate. You're just doubling down on bulls**t.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  159. @Kent Nationalist
    Seems like a poorly designed bio-weapon

    Replies: @tyrone, @Libre

    Nah it destroyed our economy and social fabric. It was perfect.

  160. @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "Sure, that cloth mask with a filtering efficiency that varies anywhere from 10% – 90% made all the difference."

    I think handwashing is generally a good idea, even though various techniques probably range from 10% to 90% of optimum. If you have an aversion to that, too, it wouldn't surprise me, and it would actually explain a lot about your comments. By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it. But if all you can provide are more cranky link-free assertions, those mean little to me.


    "keep holding on to your “COVID-19 is the great existential threat of our time” fantasy."

    Given how grumpy you seem to be today -- I'm guessing it's getting past naptime, eh? -- I'll buy you a box of Snickers -- or we can donate the cost thereof to the moderator -- if you can find in my history any comment I wrote in which I claim that COVID-19 is the "great existential threat of our time" as you put it. You won't get anywhere no matter how fast you ctr-F, but it'll be far more productive than screaming at your PC terminal about how your world has gone to pot. (I'm assuming you're already done with today's tantrum-throwing session outside of Walmart.)

    And be sure to wipe down that spittle-stained screen and keyboard. There might be some covid there, or who knows what else, if my hunch about your hand-washing technique is valid.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Mr. Anon

    By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it.

    One paper you linked to in NEJM was an opinion piece that concluded that in order to examine the hypotheses that masks prevent transmission and reduce disease severity, more studies need to be done.

    The other “paper” you linked to was not even a peer-reviewed article. It was an announcement on a website of what looks to me to be unpublished/unreviewed claims as reported in the South China Morning Post (a Chinese-friendly media outlet). The supposedly-existing research was announced by a Hong Kong researcher who said “the team carried out the study as the necessity of wearing masks, something he had long advocated, was being challenged worldwide, including by the World Health Organisation.” So, someone with a pre-existing belief announces some unpublished new findings to support his previously-advocated beliefs. Yeah, that’s convincing.

    I think it is very logical that some kinds of masks should do something to lessen transmission, but these are two of the lamest and weakest pieces of evidence I’ve seen (actually, they aren’t even really evidence at all, not being scientific studies).

    Several months ago, I conducted a long review of masks for myself. The problem–and this is why the CDC’s prior-to-COVID19-established recommendations were not in favor of widespread masking–is that the research on masking is almost all about hospitals and laboratories, not communities. The two are very different–one by trained professionals in controlled settings, the other by every bumpkin anywhere.

    It seems likely that masks can prevent sick people from coughing out droplets, but other than that, the evidence very, very weak that masks can protect you. Further, saying that works out in the wider world is just assumption.. Drawing conclusions from “countries that mask” is the lowest level of science data–epidemiology–open to all kinds of confounders and not much better than speculation.

    I think it is a good idea to keep masking, especially around vulnerable groups like older people, based on the logic. But there is not much science there.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Chrisnonymous

    "One paper you linked to in NEJM was an opinion piece that concluded that in order to examine the hypotheses that masks prevent transmission and reduce disease severity, more studies need to be done."

    It was more than an "opinion piece". Moreover, I did take pains to acknowledge in my post that there is still controversy surrounding the variolation aspect of masks. I'm not sure why you saw fit to omit that, either. That being the case, I don't think you're arguing in good faith here, but in the interest of going the extra mile, here's one relevant portion in the piece:


    The typical rate of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to be 40% by the CDC in mid-July, but asymptomatic infection rates are reported to be higher than 80% in settings with universal facial masking, which provides observational evidence for this hypothesis. Countries that have adopted population-wide masking have fared better in terms of rates of severe Covid-related illnesses and death, which, in environments with limited testing, suggests a shift from symptomatic to asymptomatic infections. Another experiment in the Syrian hamster model simulated surgical masking of the animals and showed that with simulated masking, hamsters were less likely to get infected, and if they did get infected, they either were asymptomatic or had milder symptoms than unmasked hamsters.
     
    It is true that the Syrian hamster study is still one of the key pieces of evidence, so definitely more needs to be done. If you want more details on that animal study than the South China Morning Post provides, simply type "COVID syrian hamster study masks" and read all you want. I just used the first post that popped up when I did that, having read about it elsewhere -- you can also use that so-called "opinion" piece to find actual links to the study.


    If you don't find that convincing, fine. It certainly carries more weight than the various experts around here who don't even bother to cite anything. Again, my post was primarily focused on the variolation effect of masks. If you're looking to do an actual assessment of their overall effectiveness at reducing COVID transmission, as you claim to have done, you should probably redouble your efforts, but given your fast and loose usage of "opinion" and so forth, it might not be worth the bother. I suspect all you'll find is your own confirmation bias. In any case, the following gives a rundown of the shifting views:

    https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  161. @J
    @anon

    Agree. But the issue is that the virus causes a bad respiratory disease. Even if it does not kill or is curable - it is a pandemic. The fear it causes may be exaggerated and it has broken the economy.

    Replies: @anon, @Libre

    There’s no pandemic. If it weren’t on the news, you wouldnt know there’s a cold going around

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  162. @HA
    @Almost Missouri

    "But they also show that the recent excess deaths were minor on a historical scale compared to earlier epidemics."


    No that's wishful thinking (not to mention a link-free assertion devoid of any links, citations, or actual evidence). In fact, excess death spikes like the one below are not "minor" especially given that they happened despite the massive precautions that were put in place, and especially since much of the death toll happened in the summertime, when respiratory viruses tend to ease up. In other words, you're dreaming. You're once again trying to play the Fox Butterfield fallacy of claiming that a virus we took inordinate pains to avoid feeling the full effect of was -- by sole virtue of the reduced death toll -- never that big a deal in the first place. The correct answer is that it was inordinately deadly despite those precautions and (based on the fact that things got worse when the restrictions were eased) would have been even worse without them.


    https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/britainexessdeath2.jpg

    And there are plenty more spikes like that one, generally somewhat larger than the official COVID count but otherwise suspiciously similar in the other excess mortality graphs that have been collected. Actually, they contain overlays of both COVID counts and excess mortality for easy comparison.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Almost Missouri

    that’s wishful thinking (not to mention a link-free assertion devoid of any links, citations, or actual evidence). In fact, excess death spikes like the one below are not “minor”

    I didn’t include links to Black Death or the Spanish Flu because they are too well known to need special reference. Also, they predate the highly precise (if sometimes inaccurate) record keeping that characterizes modern medicine.

    Even in the nice graphic you kindly provided, you can see that there have been higher spikes than 2020 in the recent past, despite the fact that the chart begins after the last the serious pandemic, in 1968.

    especially given that they happened despite the massive precautions that were put in place,

    Not quite. There was widespread and officially encouraged resistance to precautions such as closing borders, masks and quarantines until late March or even April, by which time the illness was already pretty well seeded everywhere.

    and especially since much of the death toll happened in the summertime, when respiratory viruses tend to ease up.

    The big rise in the death toll happened April-June, i.e., Springtime, which is late but not unusual for a flu season. In the US it was an unusually cold Spring.

    You’re once again trying to play the Fox Butterfield fallacy

    The flipside of the Fox Butterfield fallacy is the Bear Patrol fallacy.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Almost Missouri

    "There was widespread and officially encouraged resistance to precautions such as closing borders, masks and quarantines until late March or even April"

    Ergo, the reason for the spikes. Thanks for helping make my case. (And no, in none of those other spots were the spikes as prolonged, or the precautions as substantial.(

    "The flipside of the Fox Butterfield fallacy is the Bear Patrol fallacy."

    That's why we have this thing called research, and doctors, and gene sequencers and even people called epidemiologists who study this thing for a living. We can rely on their expertise in the same way that we don't presume to walk into a cockpit and start telling the pilot that Bernoulli's principle is some scam designed to waste fuel and pull us into another Mideast war even sooner. Even if that's your hunch, you typically want to go take a few courses in physics and aeronautical engineering and actually learn from the experts before you start pretending you know more than they do.

    But when it comes to COVID, a lot of people want to pretend that they're just as good as any expert who has spent an entire career dealing with pandemics of all kinds.

    Moreover, we have real live test cases thanks to the truthers getting their way in numerous states. When lockdowns (however much "widespread and officially encouraged resistance") were relaxed, death rates INCREASED, even though it was summertime when the truthers were assuring us we wouldn't need to worry about this thing any longer or that we were practically at herd immunity.

    If you get rid of the bear patrol, and bears start mauling more people even if it's the time of year when bear activity is limited, and even though we were assured by PETA that bears had already grown tired of human flesh so that we were immune to their predation and therefore we should all just live and let live, then there's no fallacy. You need some kind of patrol.

    Look at those spikes again. There's definitely bears out there, so to speak.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  163. @Almost Missouri
    @HA


    that’s wishful thinking (not to mention a link-free assertion devoid of any links, citations, or actual evidence). In fact, excess death spikes like the one below are not “minor”
     
    I didn't include links to Black Death or the Spanish Flu because they are too well known to need special reference. Also, they predate the highly precise (if sometimes inaccurate) record keeping that characterizes modern medicine.

    Even in the nice graphic you kindly provided, you can see that there have been higher spikes than 2020 in the recent past, despite the fact that the chart begins after the last the serious pandemic, in 1968.

    especially given that they happened despite the massive precautions that were put in place,
     
    Not quite. There was widespread and officially encouraged resistance to precautions such as closing borders, masks and quarantines until late March or even April, by which time the illness was already pretty well seeded everywhere.

    and especially since much of the death toll happened in the summertime, when respiratory viruses tend to ease up.
     
    The big rise in the death toll happened April-June, i.e., Springtime, which is late but not unusual for a flu season. In the US it was an unusually cold Spring.

    You’re once again trying to play the Fox Butterfield fallacy
     
    The flipside of the Fox Butterfield fallacy is the Bear Patrol fallacy.

    Replies: @HA

    “There was widespread and officially encouraged resistance to precautions such as closing borders, masks and quarantines until late March or even April”

    Ergo, the reason for the spikes. Thanks for helping make my case. (And no, in none of those other spots were the spikes as prolonged, or the precautions as substantial.(

    “The flipside of the Fox Butterfield fallacy is the Bear Patrol fallacy.”

    That’s why we have this thing called research, and doctors, and gene sequencers and even people called epidemiologists who study this thing for a living. We can rely on their expertise in the same way that we don’t presume to walk into a cockpit and start telling the pilot that Bernoulli’s principle is some scam designed to waste fuel and pull us into another Mideast war even sooner. Even if that’s your hunch, you typically want to go take a few courses in physics and aeronautical engineering and actually learn from the experts before you start pretending you know more than they do.

    But when it comes to COVID, a lot of people want to pretend that they’re just as good as any expert who has spent an entire career dealing with pandemics of all kinds.

    Moreover, we have real live test cases thanks to the truthers getting their way in numerous states. When lockdowns (however much “widespread and officially encouraged resistance”) were relaxed, death rates INCREASED, even though it was summertime when the truthers were assuring us we wouldn’t need to worry about this thing any longer or that we were practically at herd immunity.

    If you get rid of the bear patrol, and bears start mauling more people even if it’s the time of year when bear activity is limited, and even though we were assured by PETA that bears had already grown tired of human flesh so that we were immune to their predation and therefore we should all just live and let live, then there’s no fallacy. You need some kind of patrol.

    Look at those spikes again. There’s definitely bears out there, so to speak.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @HA


    or the precautions as substantial.
     
    Apparently you missed the part where the US didn't bother with precautions. Not that it matters (see below).

    That’s why we have this thing called research, and doctors, and gene sequencers and even people called epidemiologists who study this thing for a living ...
     
    ...who have a variety of views, so it's just a question of whose authority you want to sign up to.

    What do you think of Dr. Fauci's authority?

    death rates INCREASED, even though it was summertime
     
    Nah. The percentage weekly growth rate dropped into the single digits in May and has been getting closer to zero ever since. The second derivative turned negative back in April.

    You need some kind of patrol.
     
    There is no correlation between countries' anti-COVID regime and their death rates. No one really knows for sure what causes some places to suffer more than others.

    you start pretending you know more than they do.
     
    Almost. There are indeed people pretending they know more than they do ...
  164. @Chrisnonymous
    @HA


    By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it.
     
    One paper you linked to in NEJM was an opinion piece that concluded that in order to examine the hypotheses that masks prevent transmission and reduce disease severity, more studies need to be done.

    The other "paper" you linked to was not even a peer-reviewed article. It was an announcement on a website of what looks to me to be unpublished/unreviewed claims as reported in the South China Morning Post (a Chinese-friendly media outlet). The supposedly-existing research was announced by a Hong Kong researcher who said "the team carried out the study as the necessity of wearing masks, something he had long advocated, was being challenged worldwide, including by the World Health Organisation." So, someone with a pre-existing belief announces some unpublished new findings to support his previously-advocated beliefs. Yeah, that's convincing.

    I think it is very logical that some kinds of masks should do something to lessen transmission, but these are two of the lamest and weakest pieces of evidence I've seen (actually, they aren't even really evidence at all, not being scientific studies).

    Several months ago, I conducted a long review of masks for myself. The problem--and this is why the CDC's prior-to-COVID19-established recommendations were not in favor of widespread masking--is that the research on masking is almost all about hospitals and laboratories, not communities. The two are very different--one by trained professionals in controlled settings, the other by every bumpkin anywhere.

    It seems likely that masks can prevent sick people from coughing out droplets, but other than that, the evidence very, very weak that masks can protect you. Further, saying that works out in the wider world is just assumption.. Drawing conclusions from "countries that mask" is the lowest level of science data--epidemiology--open to all kinds of confounders and not much better than speculation.

    I think it is a good idea to keep masking, especially around vulnerable groups like older people, based on the logic. But there is not much science there.

    Replies: @HA

    “One paper you linked to in NEJM was an opinion piece that concluded that in order to examine the hypotheses that masks prevent transmission and reduce disease severity, more studies need to be done.”

    It was more than an “opinion piece”. Moreover, I did take pains to acknowledge in my post that there is still controversy surrounding the variolation aspect of masks. I’m not sure why you saw fit to omit that, either. That being the case, I don’t think you’re arguing in good faith here, but in the interest of going the extra mile, here’s one relevant portion in the piece:

    The typical rate of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to be 40% by the CDC in mid-July, but asymptomatic infection rates are reported to be higher than 80% in settings with universal facial masking, which provides observational evidence for this hypothesis. Countries that have adopted population-wide masking have fared better in terms of rates of severe Covid-related illnesses and death, which, in environments with limited testing, suggests a shift from symptomatic to asymptomatic infections. Another experiment in the Syrian hamster model simulated surgical masking of the animals and showed that with simulated masking, hamsters were less likely to get infected, and if they did get infected, they either were asymptomatic or had milder symptoms than unmasked hamsters.

    It is true that the Syrian hamster study is still one of the key pieces of evidence, so definitely more needs to be done. If you want more details on that animal study than the South China Morning Post provides, simply type “COVID syrian hamster study masks” and read all you want. I just used the first post that popped up when I did that, having read about it elsewhere — you can also use that so-called “opinion” piece to find actual links to the study.

    If you don’t find that convincing, fine. It certainly carries more weight than the various experts around here who don’t even bother to cite anything. Again, my post was primarily focused on the variolation effect of masks. If you’re looking to do an actual assessment of their overall effectiveness at reducing COVID transmission, as you claim to have done, you should probably redouble your efforts, but given your fast and loose usage of “opinion” and so forth, it might not be worth the bother. I suspect all you’ll find is your own confirmation bias. In any case, the following gives a rundown of the shifting views:

    https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    It is true that the Syrian hamster study is still one of the key pieces of evidence, so definitely more needs to be done.
     
    And if the term "Syrian Hamster Study" doesn't fill one with confidence, I don't know what will.
  165. @Chrisnonymous
    @HA

    You are doing a straw-man-like thing. The commenter said the excess deaths were not significant compared to other epidemics and you trying to refute him with a graph showing the current excess deaths compared to the average, not compared to other epidemics.

    Replies: @HA

    “You are doing a straw-man-like thing. The commenter said the excess deaths were not significant compared to other epidemics and you trying to refute him with a graph showing the current excess deaths compared to the average, not compared to other epidemics.”

    The graph goes back 50 years, so it contains numerous other bad flu years, including the 1968-9 Hong Kong flue epidemic. Also the 2009 epidemic, which, by the way, recently was claimed to have been undercounted by a factor of 10, though I suspect the graph doesn’t contain those adjustments. A graph of other locations would show effects of ebola, zika, and other such epidemics though that didn’t make it into the UK.

    In short, if this thing is large on the scale of anything we’ve seen in half a century, and as the graph indicates it most definitely is, I’m not straw-manning anything. Again, if all this is supposed to be argumentation in good faith on your part, you have a curiously selective way of identifying who is and isn’t strawmanning, but I think we both realize at this point, that you’re not interested in that.

    Early intelligence estimates put the unmitigated death toll of this thing at half a million. That’s more or less what we’re talking about. Sure, there are epidemics that have taken out ten times that and more, so in that sense, yeah, this is much smaller, but that doesn’t mean half a million — which is increasingly looking like an underestimate — aren’t worth trying to save or that they are, under any sane assessment, “not significant”. If you’re honestly against people twisting things, you need to take a closer look at the kinds of comments you are choosing to defend.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    The graph goes back 50 years, so it contains numerous other bad flu years, including the 1968-9 Hong Kong flue epidemic.
     
    Yes, and the week 0 and 1 peaks for flu go up as high as the week 15 peak for COVID. That highest most number for Week 0 and 1 is probably from 1970 - the year of the Hong Kong Flu. It's just that that graph shows COVID in scary solid red, and the Hong Kong Flu in a calming pale blue that's easy to miss.

    If you're going to show graphs you really ought to choose ones that reinforce your point, not that of the person you're trying to rebut.

    Replies: @HA

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @HA

    Okay, so now it's obvious that you don't understand the difference between comparing this year's excess deaths to other epidemic years versus comparing it to average excess deaths over decades. In other words, you keep posting stuff, but you don't know what you're talking about.

    Similarly, you challenged us to "discredit the two research papers I linked to", so I pointed out that they aren't even research papers, and your response indicates that you don't understand the difference between an opinion piece and research.

    So, we can ignore your hysterical COVID commentary from now on. Luckily, Unz has an ignore list, which is where you're going.

  166. @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "Sure, that cloth mask with a filtering efficiency that varies anywhere from 10% – 90% made all the difference."

    I think handwashing is generally a good idea, even though various techniques probably range from 10% to 90% of optimum. If you have an aversion to that, too, it wouldn't surprise me, and it would actually explain a lot about your comments. By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it. But if all you can provide are more cranky link-free assertions, those mean little to me.


    "keep holding on to your “COVID-19 is the great existential threat of our time” fantasy."

    Given how grumpy you seem to be today -- I'm guessing it's getting past naptime, eh? -- I'll buy you a box of Snickers -- or we can donate the cost thereof to the moderator -- if you can find in my history any comment I wrote in which I claim that COVID-19 is the "great existential threat of our time" as you put it. You won't get anywhere no matter how fast you ctr-F, but it'll be far more productive than screaming at your PC terminal about how your world has gone to pot. (I'm assuming you're already done with today's tantrum-throwing session outside of Walmart.)

    And be sure to wipe down that spittle-stained screen and keyboard. There might be some covid there, or who knows what else, if my hunch about your hand-washing technique is valid.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Mr. Anon

    I think handwashing is generally a good idea, even though various techniques probably range from 10% to 90% of optimum. If you have an aversion to that, too, it wouldn’t surprise me, and it would actually explain a lot about your comments.

    I have no objection to hand-washing for infection control. I have no objection to wearing masks. I object to governments mandating their use.

    By all means, if you want to discredit the two research papers I linked to, and claim masks have had no effect, have at it. But if all you can provide are more cranky link-free assertions, those mean little to me.

    Masks reduce COVID-19 transmission between hamsters

    On that second one, how did they get the Hamsters to wear masks? But of course, I joke – they used a surgical mask as a filter between two cages. Probably with a tight-fitting seal, although what they revealed doesn’t allow one to say. Pictures or diagrams of the experimental set up would be nice. Not exactly the same as wearing a mask.

    But, by all means, if you Hamsters want to wear masks all the time, have at it.

    Anyway, you want studies – here are some studies:

    https://swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/

    And be sure to wipe down that spittle-stained screen and keyboard. There might be some covid there, or who knows what else, if my hunch about your hand-washing technique is valid.

    Based on your posts, I’d conclude that you don’t wipe.

  167. @HA
    @Chrisnonymous

    "You are doing a straw-man-like thing. The commenter said the excess deaths were not significant compared to other epidemics and you trying to refute him with a graph showing the current excess deaths compared to the average, not compared to other epidemics."

    The graph goes back 50 years, so it contains numerous other bad flu years, including the 1968-9 Hong Kong flue epidemic. Also the 2009 epidemic, which, by the way, recently was claimed to have been undercounted by a factor of 10, though I suspect the graph doesn't contain those adjustments. A graph of other locations would show effects of ebola, zika, and other such epidemics though that didn't make it into the UK.

    In short, if this thing is large on the scale of anything we've seen in half a century, and as the graph indicates it most definitely is, I'm not straw-manning anything. Again, if all this is supposed to be argumentation in good faith on your part, you have a curiously selective way of identifying who is and isn't strawmanning, but I think we both realize at this point, that you're not interested in that.

    Early intelligence estimates put the unmitigated death toll of this thing at half a million. That's more or less what we're talking about. Sure, there are epidemics that have taken out ten times that and more, so in that sense, yeah, this is much smaller, but that doesn't mean half a million -- which is increasingly looking like an underestimate -- aren't worth trying to save or that they are, under any sane assessment, "not significant". If you're honestly against people twisting things, you need to take a closer look at the kinds of comments you are choosing to defend.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

    The graph goes back 50 years, so it contains numerous other bad flu years, including the 1968-9 Hong Kong flue epidemic.

    Yes, and the week 0 and 1 peaks for flu go up as high as the week 15 peak for COVID. That highest most number for Week 0 and 1 is probably from 1970 – the year of the Hong Kong Flu. It’s just that that graph shows COVID in scary solid red, and the Hong Kong Flu in a calming pale blue that’s easy to miss.

    If you’re going to show graphs you really ought to choose ones that reinforce your point, not that of the person you’re trying to rebut.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "That highest most number for Week 0 and 1 is probably from 1970 – the year of the Hong Kong Flu."

    Which, as noted earlier, took out at the most 100,000K in total. In other words, this thing has, in just over half a year, and with massive preventive measures in place to muzzle its damage, and with summertime weather to blunt its damage even further, still taken out almost twice what that thing did. Even after the population adjustment, there's just no comparison.

    Again, I've addressed this pathetically lame whack-a-mole argument too many times already. I've even gone through this with you before so before you waste my time again, get a better set of arguments or a better memory.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  168. @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    The graph goes back 50 years, so it contains numerous other bad flu years, including the 1968-9 Hong Kong flue epidemic.
     
    Yes, and the week 0 and 1 peaks for flu go up as high as the week 15 peak for COVID. That highest most number for Week 0 and 1 is probably from 1970 - the year of the Hong Kong Flu. It's just that that graph shows COVID in scary solid red, and the Hong Kong Flu in a calming pale blue that's easy to miss.

    If you're going to show graphs you really ought to choose ones that reinforce your point, not that of the person you're trying to rebut.

    Replies: @HA

    “That highest most number for Week 0 and 1 is probably from 1970 – the year of the Hong Kong Flu.”

    Which, as noted earlier, took out at the most 100,000K in total. In other words, this thing has, in just over half a year, and with massive preventive measures in place to muzzle its damage, and with summertime weather to blunt its damage even further, still taken out almost twice what that thing did. Even after the population adjustment, there’s just no comparison.

    Again, I’ve addressed this pathetically lame whack-a-mole argument too many times already. I’ve even gone through this with you before so before you waste my time again, get a better set of arguments or a better memory.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    Which, as noted earlier, took out at the most 100,000K in total. In other words, this thing has, in just over half a year, and with massive preventive measures in place to muzzle its damage, and with summertime weather to blunt its damage even further, still taken out almost twice what that thing did. Even after the population adjustment, there’s just no comparison.

    Again, I’ve addressed this pathetically lame whack-a-mole argument too many times already. I’ve even gone through this with you before so before you waste my time again, get a better set of arguments or a better memory.
     
    You're the one sporting lame arguments. The Asian Flu of 1957/58 killed off about 0.065% of the population of America. We still aren't there yet with COVID, even with the vaunted "2nd wave". The ratio of cases to deaths is much lower than in March/April. Although the cases numbers are largely garbage as the tests are rife with false positives, and the death numbers are garbage as they've been inflated.

    The fact is, this may very well not be any worse than that pandemic of 1957/58. The World didn't freak-the-f**k-out back then.

    Still, as always, you are welcome to cower in a closet with your mask on, if you like. After all, we pretend that it's a free country. Just leave us adults out of your childish panic attacks.
  169. @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "That highest most number for Week 0 and 1 is probably from 1970 – the year of the Hong Kong Flu."

    Which, as noted earlier, took out at the most 100,000K in total. In other words, this thing has, in just over half a year, and with massive preventive measures in place to muzzle its damage, and with summertime weather to blunt its damage even further, still taken out almost twice what that thing did. Even after the population adjustment, there's just no comparison.

    Again, I've addressed this pathetically lame whack-a-mole argument too many times already. I've even gone through this with you before so before you waste my time again, get a better set of arguments or a better memory.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Which, as noted earlier, took out at the most 100,000K in total. In other words, this thing has, in just over half a year, and with massive preventive measures in place to muzzle its damage, and with summertime weather to blunt its damage even further, still taken out almost twice what that thing did. Even after the population adjustment, there’s just no comparison.

    Again, I’ve addressed this pathetically lame whack-a-mole argument too many times already. I’ve even gone through this with you before so before you waste my time again, get a better set of arguments or a better memory.

    You’re the one sporting lame arguments. The Asian Flu of 1957/58 killed off about 0.065% of the population of America. We still aren’t there yet with COVID, even with the vaunted “2nd wave”. The ratio of cases to deaths is much lower than in March/April. Although the cases numbers are largely garbage as the tests are rife with false positives, and the death numbers are garbage as they’ve been inflated.

    The fact is, this may very well not be any worse than that pandemic of 1957/58. The World didn’t freak-the-f**k-out back then.

    Still, as always, you are welcome to cower in a closet with your mask on, if you like. After all, we pretend that it’s a free country. Just leave us adults out of your childish panic attacks.

    • Agree: Dieter Kief
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  170. @HA
    @Chrisnonymous

    "One paper you linked to in NEJM was an opinion piece that concluded that in order to examine the hypotheses that masks prevent transmission and reduce disease severity, more studies need to be done."

    It was more than an "opinion piece". Moreover, I did take pains to acknowledge in my post that there is still controversy surrounding the variolation aspect of masks. I'm not sure why you saw fit to omit that, either. That being the case, I don't think you're arguing in good faith here, but in the interest of going the extra mile, here's one relevant portion in the piece:


    The typical rate of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to be 40% by the CDC in mid-July, but asymptomatic infection rates are reported to be higher than 80% in settings with universal facial masking, which provides observational evidence for this hypothesis. Countries that have adopted population-wide masking have fared better in terms of rates of severe Covid-related illnesses and death, which, in environments with limited testing, suggests a shift from symptomatic to asymptomatic infections. Another experiment in the Syrian hamster model simulated surgical masking of the animals and showed that with simulated masking, hamsters were less likely to get infected, and if they did get infected, they either were asymptomatic or had milder symptoms than unmasked hamsters.
     
    It is true that the Syrian hamster study is still one of the key pieces of evidence, so definitely more needs to be done. If you want more details on that animal study than the South China Morning Post provides, simply type "COVID syrian hamster study masks" and read all you want. I just used the first post that popped up when I did that, having read about it elsewhere -- you can also use that so-called "opinion" piece to find actual links to the study.


    If you don't find that convincing, fine. It certainly carries more weight than the various experts around here who don't even bother to cite anything. Again, my post was primarily focused on the variolation effect of masks. If you're looking to do an actual assessment of their overall effectiveness at reducing COVID transmission, as you claim to have done, you should probably redouble your efforts, but given your fast and loose usage of "opinion" and so forth, it might not be worth the bother. I suspect all you'll find is your own confirmation bias. In any case, the following gives a rundown of the shifting views:

    https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    It is true that the Syrian hamster study is still one of the key pieces of evidence, so definitely more needs to be done.

    And if the term “Syrian Hamster Study” doesn’t fill one with confidence, I don’t know what will.

  171. @HA
    @Travis

    "The lockdowns did not prevent COVID deaths in New Jersey, New York , Pennsylvania…"

    Who says? If you want to pretend that things would not have been even worse if there had been no lockdown in those areas, your assertions won't be enough to convince me.


    "Where did the easing of lockdowns result in an increase in deaths ?"

    Texas, for one. Prior to the easing of lockdowns, the maximum death toll was about 30. It eventually quadrupled subsequently. Florida's increase looks pretty dramatic as well.

    "While Germany had milder restrictions than Spain, it has been much more successful in containing the virus. Sweden and Japan did not lockdown their nations yet faired much better than New York , new Jersey , PA, Spain, France, etc…"

    If you want a fair apples to apples comparison, look at Sweden vs. its neighbors. Similar lifestyles (some of which have more social distancing built in than others), etc.

    That's three answers given to three stupid questions, which was far more effort than was warranted. I'm not even going to bother reading the rest.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Who says? If you want to pretend that things would not have been even worse if there had been no lockdown in those areas, your assertions won’t be enough to convince me.

    Do you guys ever look at any real f**king numbers? Sweden’s death rate was lower than Englands. It was lower than that of Belgium, Italy, and Spain. It was lower than that of New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Japan’s was much lower.

    Degree of lock-down is entirely uncorrelated with death rate. You’re just doubling down on bulls**t.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Mr. Anon

    Agree. Japan is a little different though in that it closed the borders early on. Kinda what Trump did in stopping the flights from China - just not long enough and with enough persistence.

  172. @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    Who says? If you want to pretend that things would not have been even worse if there had been no lockdown in those areas, your assertions won’t be enough to convince me.
     
    Do you guys ever look at any real f**king numbers? Sweden's death rate was lower than Englands. It was lower than that of Belgium, Italy, and Spain. It was lower than that of New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Japan's was much lower.

    Degree of lock-down is entirely uncorrelated with death rate. You're just doubling down on bulls**t.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    Agree. Japan is a little different though in that it closed the borders early on. Kinda what Trump did in stopping the flights from China – just not long enough and with enough persistence.

  173. @HA
    @Chrisnonymous

    "You are doing a straw-man-like thing. The commenter said the excess deaths were not significant compared to other epidemics and you trying to refute him with a graph showing the current excess deaths compared to the average, not compared to other epidemics."

    The graph goes back 50 years, so it contains numerous other bad flu years, including the 1968-9 Hong Kong flue epidemic. Also the 2009 epidemic, which, by the way, recently was claimed to have been undercounted by a factor of 10, though I suspect the graph doesn't contain those adjustments. A graph of other locations would show effects of ebola, zika, and other such epidemics though that didn't make it into the UK.

    In short, if this thing is large on the scale of anything we've seen in half a century, and as the graph indicates it most definitely is, I'm not straw-manning anything. Again, if all this is supposed to be argumentation in good faith on your part, you have a curiously selective way of identifying who is and isn't strawmanning, but I think we both realize at this point, that you're not interested in that.

    Early intelligence estimates put the unmitigated death toll of this thing at half a million. That's more or less what we're talking about. Sure, there are epidemics that have taken out ten times that and more, so in that sense, yeah, this is much smaller, but that doesn't mean half a million -- which is increasingly looking like an underestimate -- aren't worth trying to save or that they are, under any sane assessment, "not significant". If you're honestly against people twisting things, you need to take a closer look at the kinds of comments you are choosing to defend.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

    Okay, so now it’s obvious that you don’t understand the difference between comparing this year’s excess deaths to other epidemic years versus comparing it to average excess deaths over decades. In other words, you keep posting stuff, but you don’t know what you’re talking about.

    Similarly, you challenged us to “discredit the two research papers I linked to”, so I pointed out that they aren’t even research papers, and your response indicates that you don’t understand the difference between an opinion piece and research.

    So, we can ignore your hysterical COVID commentary from now on. Luckily, Unz has an ignore list, which is where you’re going.

  174. @HA
    @Almost Missouri

    "There was widespread and officially encouraged resistance to precautions such as closing borders, masks and quarantines until late March or even April"

    Ergo, the reason for the spikes. Thanks for helping make my case. (And no, in none of those other spots were the spikes as prolonged, or the precautions as substantial.(

    "The flipside of the Fox Butterfield fallacy is the Bear Patrol fallacy."

    That's why we have this thing called research, and doctors, and gene sequencers and even people called epidemiologists who study this thing for a living. We can rely on their expertise in the same way that we don't presume to walk into a cockpit and start telling the pilot that Bernoulli's principle is some scam designed to waste fuel and pull us into another Mideast war even sooner. Even if that's your hunch, you typically want to go take a few courses in physics and aeronautical engineering and actually learn from the experts before you start pretending you know more than they do.

    But when it comes to COVID, a lot of people want to pretend that they're just as good as any expert who has spent an entire career dealing with pandemics of all kinds.

    Moreover, we have real live test cases thanks to the truthers getting their way in numerous states. When lockdowns (however much "widespread and officially encouraged resistance") were relaxed, death rates INCREASED, even though it was summertime when the truthers were assuring us we wouldn't need to worry about this thing any longer or that we were practically at herd immunity.

    If you get rid of the bear patrol, and bears start mauling more people even if it's the time of year when bear activity is limited, and even though we were assured by PETA that bears had already grown tired of human flesh so that we were immune to their predation and therefore we should all just live and let live, then there's no fallacy. You need some kind of patrol.

    Look at those spikes again. There's definitely bears out there, so to speak.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    or the precautions as substantial.

    Apparently you missed the part where the US didn’t bother with precautions. Not that it matters (see below).

    That’s why we have this thing called research, and doctors, and gene sequencers and even people called epidemiologists who study this thing for a living …

    …who have a variety of views, so it’s just a question of whose authority you want to sign up to.

    What do you think of Dr. Fauci’s authority?

    death rates INCREASED, even though it was summertime

    Nah. The percentage weekly growth rate dropped into the single digits in May and has been getting closer to zero ever since. The second derivative turned negative back in April.

    You need some kind of patrol.

    There is no correlation between countries’ anti-COVID regime and their death rates. No one really knows for sure what causes some places to suffer more than others.

    you start pretending you know more than they do.

    Almost. There are indeed people pretending they know more than they do …

  175. @Frank G
    Also the military doesn’t have any incentive to lie about COVID deaths as the private sector.

    Replies: @Harry Baldwin, @Hibernian, @Abolish_public_education, @Piglet

    Having served in the military for close to 30 years before retiring, I can tell you from experience that no, you cannot automatically trust what the military tells you on any subject. I recall being assigned to a major command headquarters in the USAF and being encouraged to “massage the numbers.” Nobody said to falsify them or outright lie, but to “massage.” It was, of course, the same thing.

    Over time I saw the same sort of deception going on elsewhere and I came to realize that military public affairs offices were dens of professional liars and propagandists. They existed only to make the base, the wing, the commander and the USAF look good. Their careers depend upon them doing this well. You could not rely on them to be truthful to you. Being around them, I found that they viewed the public, which provided the tax money on which they relied, as the enemy of sorts and they felt no obligation at all to be the least bit truthful.

    Army psychological operations units spread propaganda to break the will of foreign enemies. PAOs spread propaganda domestically to break the will of the taxpayers, or at least massively deceive them.

    I’m not a leftist by any means, but I’m telling you what the reality is. I understand that a lot of people have a very inflated opinion of the military that probably doesn’t match reality, but this is the way it really is. Remember that the military is indeed part of the same federal (feral?) government that many have come to despise for various (but valid) reasons.

    Keep in mind these famous quotes:

    “We Americans are the ultimate innocents. We are forever desperate to believe that this time the government is telling us the truth.” Sydney Schanberg (deceased), former NYT journalist and author of The Killing Fields

    “Look, if you think any American official is going to tell you the truth, then you’re stupid. Did you hear that? — stupid.” Arthur Sylvester, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs in the mid-60s

  176. @Andrew M
    As a young fit & healthy male (admittedly not military-grade fitness), a 1 in 6000 risk is still quite worrying. I hope the DoD releases a report about those seven deaths; it would be interesting to know if they had complicating factors.

    Replies: @anonymous, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco, @Achmed E. Newman, @Thatgirl, @AndrewR, @Anon, @Piglet

    People in the military are not necessarily good health and don’t look much like the people in the movies. Not everyone is a Navy SEAL or USAF pararescueman. In fact, in my last unit in the Army Reserve, most of the members of the unit couldn’t begin to pass a fitness test and many were just plain obese, and they didn’t even begin to take care of their own health. The scores they achieved on fitness tests were simply abysmal, and that was with a lot of cheating. Since retiring I know a number of them have since died (long before COVID) from various ailments, such as cancer, a brain aneurysm, accident, etc., and those were just the ones I heard about.

  177. @George
    Sturgis: 365,979 attended, 5 deaths due to crashes, 1 death due to covid, $12 billion in public health something or other

    Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was 'superspreading event' that cost public health $12.2 billion: analysis

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/515453-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-was-superspreading-event-that-cost-public

    The first known Covid-19 death linked to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is in Minnesota

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/health/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-covid-death/index.html

    Sturgis 2020 In Numbers: Attendance Only Down Slightly, Crashes Up

    https://www.rideapart.com/articles/439496/sturgis-2020-attendance-crime-numbers/

    Replies: @Coemgen, @Piglet

    You’ll find the debunking here:

    A Tale of Two Mass Gatherings: Sturgis ‘Super Spreader’ Bike Rally vs. Black Lives Matter ‘Fiery but Mostly Peaceful’ Protests
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/09/no_author/a-tale-of-two-mass-gatherings-sturgis-super-spreader-bike-rally-vs-black-lives-matter-fiery-but-mostly-peaceful-protests/

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