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As we all know, no politicians have ever exploited and/or encouraged demographic change for the sake of electoral advantage. That’s just a conspiracy theory! Well, except in Israel, of course, where progressive and now centrist Jews are being swamped by the recently teeming masses of Ultra-Orthodox Jews and their political allies, like Bibi Netanyahu, who are bribing them to stay home and breed even more. From the New York Times news section:
In Power With Netanyahu, Ultra-Orthodox Parties Chart Israel’s Future
Bolstered by growth in numbers and political influence, ultra-Orthodox parties are pushing for greater autonomy, with potentially far-reaching implications for the country.
By Isabel Kershner
Jan. 9, 2023JERUSALEM — … Members of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community have long enjoyed benefits unavailable to many other Israeli citizens: exemption from army service for Torah students, government stipends for those choosing full-time religious study over work and separate schools that receive state funds even though their curriculums barely teach government-mandated subjects.
Those benefits have fueled resentment among large segments of the more secular public, and Israeli leaders have declared for years that their intention was to draw more of the ultra-Orthodox, known as Haredim, into the work force and society.
But the string of promises by Mr. Netanyahu in recent weeks as he pulled together the country’s most right-wing and religiously conservative government ever suggest that Haredi leaders are pushing hard to cement the community’s special status, with broad-ranging implications for Israeli society and the economy. …
Ultra-Orthodox parties won the most parliamentary seats in years in the November elections, reflecting the fast growth of this largely insular community and making them linchpins of Mr. Netanyahu’s government. …
Most Haredi women have jobs, albeit often low-paying ones. But only about half of ultra-Orthodox men go to work. Critics say that the promise to increase stipends for Torah students will act as a disincentive for them to join the labor force.
Haredi children now make up a quarter of all Jewish children in the school system and a fifth of all pupils in the country, Jewish and Arab. Most Haredi boys focus on religious studies and learn little or no math, English or science.
“When the Haredim were a small group, that was OK,” Professor Stern said. “Now it’s impossible. To allow this to go on despite the large numbers of Haredim means the country won’t be able to function.”
… Haredim make up some 13 percent of the population, but Haredi families have an average of seven children, more than double the number of the average Israeli family. If current trends continue, almost one in four Israelis, and about one in three Israeli Jews, are projected to be Haredi by 2050.
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“Most Haredi boys focus on religious studies and learn little or no math, English or science.”
Why would they learn English? Wouldn’t they learn Hebrew?
This is what happens when you let your religious right run amok. Americans: pay attention!Replies: @SFG, @Dmon
This is especially true in Israel which is otherwise isolated from the world with its unique alphabet - unless they taught the kids English (or another language with the Roman alphabet) then they wouldn't even be able to read the signs in a foreign airport or the label on imported product packages.Replies: @Dutch Boy
I am curious what the comments at the NYT are saying about this? I am guessing that the usual visceral hatred for white people there is not allowed to be duplicated for religious jews.
It’s strange to me that the New York Times hasn’t published anything about Yariv Levin’s judicial reform yet. Poland and Hungary times are finally coming to Israel! The liberal elites are in a state of hysteria and the Times has nothing to say?
Why would they learn English? Wouldn't they learn Hebrew?Replies: @raga10, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @AndrewR, @RoHa
Well, English is helpful for all kinds of reasons – not least of these, to operate weapons provided from America, manuals for which are probably not written in Hebrew. Of course, they don’t need to worry about that – they are exempt from military service anyway.
This is what happens when you let your religious right run amok. Americans: pay attention!
I was hoping for something more like this.
https://i2-prod.dailystar.co.uk/incoming/article22175400.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_Newsflash-SyriaMural-01.jpg
A decade or two ago the UN published two lengthy reports on the Arab world. Mostly by Arab ‘scholars’ they went through the ‘it’s all the Israelis’ fault’ motions, but soon settled into a candid and eye-opening autopsy of Arab underachievement (one widely quoted example being that the number of books Spain translates into Spanish each year exceeds the number all Arab countries have translated into Arabic since the 9th century). One of the roots of this regress was the concentration of education on ‘religious studies’ even into the higher academes. Nations of praying couch potatoes become objects of derision and pity, and work is made for these idle hands by the devil. So, as the Ultras breed and extort their way to power, are we witnessing the Arab-isation of Israel?
The Ultras are (almost all) Ashkenazis, but another thing that’s going on is that Mizrahis are becoming more fashionable in Israel popular culture over more educated Ashkenazis.
Israel's parliament has proportional representation so the number of members a party gets is proportional to its share of the vote. The political party which represents Ashkenazi Haredim, which is called United Torah Judaism, has had ~7 parliamentary seats for years . The political party which represents Sephardic/Mizrahi Haredim, which is called Shas, now has double that number. In fact it is entirely growth in the latter which has given the ultra-Orthodox parties their 'most parliamentary seats ever,' as the NY Times article claims.Replies: @Pixo
There's actually a Canadian-Israeli Jewish guy who makes a bunch of videos in Israel who did a video on this exact topic asking religious ultra jews who are sephardi and Mizrahi why they all dress like they're Polish. The vast majority didn't really have an answer and just said "we're religious", but he tacitly and at times explicitly points out that while Sephardi/Mizrahi culture and food is now dominant in Israeli Jewish pop culture and much of culture outside of the Ultras, Ashkenazi culture and habits of dress still largely dominate the Sephari/Mizrahi within the ultras.
Here's that video, titled "Mizrahi religious Jews: Why do you dress like Ashkenazis?"
This guy also does lots of interviews of all sorts of Jews and Arabs in Israel. It's telling that even though he's on the center left or left in Israel, hes super zionist and super biased towards the Zionist project in Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCWTK231VKg
It’s called citizenship. And it’s a bedrock of Western Civilization.
Speaking of conspiracies. Lemmings gotta Lemming.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-01-11/lemmings-will-be-lemmings-awaken-or-slumber
Is it still a Mitzvah if it benefits the goyim?
Oy vey. "Anti-semiticist canard" alert!
The Haredim are kind of similar to American white conservatives: heavy breeders with a focus on religion and lower average levels of income and eduication compared to progressive urban whites. But the comparison is not entirely accurate, because the Haredim are leeches, while at least the white American conservatives don’t take handouts from their welathier fellow citizens, and have a deep sense of duty and serve in the Military disproportionally. Basically, the Haredim have the worse riats of cdonservative white Americans, like the high religiosity and the intense hostility for strangers, but none of the virtues of white American conservatives like dutifullness and a sense of obligation towards one’s community.
The growth of the Haredim does not bold well to Israel, becausse the wealthiest and most educated Jews, like the wealthiest and most educated white gentile Americans, tend to be secular, liberal and progressive. We also see this in America, with white families from “red” states being much more religious and breeding in much greater number than white urban bourgeoise liberals. I have said before that the ultimate fate of the American white bourgeoise, the urban white-collar liberal whites, is to be exterminated by being outbred by everyone, as well as due to their pathological level of altruism and universalism.
White conservatives are glad to see them go, but I am not so sure that the end of the white bourgeoise, the urban white-collar liberals, will be good for America. They have accomplished tremendous things, like ending slavery to founding all of America’s Ivy League universities, founding Silicon Valleyas well as most of America’s classic corporations. Historically, their states and cities have been the richest and most advanced in the country. I think that it is a terrible omen for American the decline and dwindling number of the white bourgeoise, which is almost synonymous for white urban liberal. Despite their levels of delusion and pathological altrusim, America will be a much more backward and poor country when theyn are all gone. The poblem is that white urban liberal women don’t seem to be physically capable of giving birth more than once or twice in a lifetime. I don’t know what that is, because when I lived in Manhattan, the few white-collar liberal white families that had kids, usually only had 1 kid. I think that only once I saw a white family with 2 kids. It can’t be income, becausse these are really wealthy families, at the top 1-3% income bracket in America. They could afford more children, but they don’t want to, Also, liberal white women seem to have a problem with childbirth, and pregnancy seems to take a heavy toll on them compared to conservative women. Like breeding is harder for them, and pregnancy takes a drain on their bodies. When I lived in Manhattan, the few white couples I saw with kids the mother almost always said that pregnancy and childbirth were the worst experieces of their life, and that they nearly died.
Here’s a fun story; when I was an adolescent, I had a Jewish friend that went almost every year to Israel. There was one summer vacation when I didn’t know where to go or what to do, and he suggested to me to go with him to a “Kibutz” in Israel. I asked him why the hell I would want to spend my summer picking oranges for free, to which he replied;
– “To bang chicks…”
“Jewish chicks” – I asked
– Him: “Yeah..!”
Then I knew that he was full of shit, because no way no how would Jewish parents allow a “goy” boy within thirty feet of their daughters. 🤣 So I politely declined his invitation.
Might be due to high maternal age.Replies: @Zero Philosopher
But this sentence hits on the key issue. Israel's Haredi are parasites. They suck up welfare and government benefits while underproducing and dodging military service which is critical to Israel.
Since about 10 minutes after the development of agriculture, mankind has been plagued with parasites finding some grift to eat and live--sometimes very, very well--at the expense of productive people. And every society has the challenge of trying to reign that in--ex. executing criminals--or limit it to within its means--ex. the king can only tax so much--or the parasitism simply drags it down.
The Haredim also demonstrate one of the toxic features of democratic electoral politics. That a particular group can act as a parasite vote bank, getting its parasitism fed by the state from productive taxpayers at the expense of the nation's public interest.
This is all very much in contrast to American white conservatives who are overwhelming the people who do the materially productive labor upon which everyone else depends.
I'm not Jewish and don't pretend to know anything about Israel. But I believe there is a group "national religious" in Israel--religiously observant (what you'd think of as "Modern Orthodox" in America) and productively employed and patriotic--which would be a better analog to conservative believing Christians in the US. (Though their mean family size--I believe near 4--would be at least a kid higher than US conservative Christians, who--though there are outliers--are not wildly fertile, just moreso than the white mean and maybe a kid higher than liberal seculars.)
Those in the know on Israeli matters can correct me.Replies: @Zero Philosopher
But which Jews? The most brutal anti-Semitism I ever saw on the internet was from middle class Jewish-but-not-that-Jewish New York Staters complaining about the Westlake mafia types, who had conned a city into building their houses for them, for free, and now could not tax those houses because the residential houses in a subdivision were declared to be houses of worship. There are videos of people confronting them and their shomrim. Law & Order actually did an episode in which a group like them are the bad guys. And there’s the excellent documentary My Brother’s Keeper.
Why would they learn English? Wouldn't they learn Hebrew?Replies: @raga10, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @AndrewR, @RoHa
It’s a huge problem that any group be allowed to be so alien and separate. This wrecks the nation just like universal service builds it.
How do Haredi do on IQ tests? Jayman was fond of saying that once a population split on some factor, they were no longer the same population. When there were 1000 Ashkenazi in Israel, it stands to reason that the ten who became (or stayed) Haredi were a lot different than 990 who were sane.
Still, it matters if the Haredi have an average IQ of 90, 95, 100, or 105. Do the women get educated?
Are the Haredi the Jews who think Israel is an illegitimate country because King Solomon isn’t running it, or some such?
They’ll have something to say sooner or later, and you can count on it being wrong. Then again, if their reporter takes time to learn about the details, I think even a liberal American would be horrified at the power Israel’s supreme court and solicitor general have arrogated to themselves.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-judicial-reform.htmlReplies: @International Jew
Haredi make up some 13% of the population… hhmm
To their credit, the Arabs translated a lot of Greek classics that would have otherwise been lost forever. So the Arabs are still one-up on the Spaniards if you weight by quality.
The little good Muslims did in translating choice volumes doesn't balance out the wholesale destruction of Greek/Christian culture in the places mentioned above, including many volumes lost in the conquest.
In terms of Nobel Laurates, the MENA region (excluding Israel) counts 5 awardees in the Science category: Elias Corey (Lebanese Christian), Ahmad Zewail (Egyptian Muslim), Aziz Sancar (Turkish Muslim), Serge Haroche (Moroccan Jewish), Claude Cohen-Tannoudji (Algerian Jewish); 1 in the Medicine category: Ardem Patapoutian (Armenian Christian) and 2 in the Literature category: Naguib Mahfouz (Egyptian Muslim) and Orhan Pamuk (Turkish Muslim).Peter Medawar, a Nobel laureate in Medicine, was of Lebanese Maronite extraction on his father’s side, and English on his mother, but was born and raised in Brazil. Baruj Benacerraf, also a laureate in Medicine, was born in Venezuela to Moroccan Jewish parents. Depending on how they are counted, the MENA region has a total of 8-10 laureates in Science, Medicine and Literature.Latin America counts 2 laureate in the Sciences: Louis Leloir (Argentine) and Mario Mollina (Mexican); 3 in Medicine: Baruj Benacerraf (Venezuelan of Moroccan Jewish extraction), César Milstein (Argentine of Ashkenazi Jewish extraction) and Bernardo Houssay (Argentine); and 6 in literature: Gabriela Mistral (Chile), Miguel Ángel Asturias (Guatemala), Pablo Neruda (Chile), Gabriel García Márquez (Colombia), Octavio Paz (Mexico), and Mario Vargas Llosa (Peru). Comes to a total of 11-13 depending on how Medawar and Benacerraf are counted.None of LatAm’s awardees were indigos or mestizos, most seemed to have been mostly of European or MENA origin. Conspicuous in absence from the laureate list are Iran and Brazil. Egypt’s Copts likewise failed to make the cut, though Egypt alongside Turkey racked up the most prizes in the MENA region. Maghrebi Jews and Lebanese Christians were over-represented, it’s also notable that two LatAm laureates were of Maronite and Moroccan Jewish ancestry. MENA region seemed to have outperformed LatAm in the sciences, while the reverse is true of literature.Historical Accomplishment
A comparison of historical accomplishment between the two regions would be lopsided since the MENA region is multiple times older than LatAm. But for those interested, in Charles Murray’s Human Accomplishment, the MENA region counts the following significant figures:Astronomy: Ibn Yunus (Egypt) (8), Al-Zarqali (Andalus) (7)
Chemistry: Jabar Ibn Haryana (Persia) (14)
Physics: Al-Hazen (Iraq) (22)
Maths: Al-Khawarizmi (Persia) (23), Omar Khayyam (Persia) (13), Abul Wafa (Persia) (7), Al-Battani (Persia) (4)
Medicine: Al-Razi (Persia) (26), Constantine of Africa (5), Ibn An-Nafis (Syria) (4)
Arabic Literature: 82 significant figures
Western Philosophy: Saint Augustine (Algeria) (30), Averroes (Andalus) (11), Avicenna (Persia) (15), Al-Ghazali (Persia) (4), Al-Kindi (Persia) (3), Ben Josef (1)
Western Literature: Saint Augustine (Algeria) (13)Total = 101In Latin America:Astronomy: None
Chemistry: None
Physics: None
Maths: None
Medicine: None
Western Literature: Mario de Andrade (Brazil) (1), Miguel Asturias (Guatemala) (2), Ricardo Guraldes (Argentina) (2), Jose De Heradia (5), Vincente Huidobro (Chile) (2), Jorge De Lime (Brazil) (1), Pablo Neruda (Chile) (4), Juan Mendoza (5), Cesar Vallejo (Peru) (1), Jorge Borges (4), Mistral Gabriela (2)
Western Philosophy: None
Western Music: Heitor Villa-Lobos (Brazil) (4), Carlos Ramirez (2)Total: 13The most significant world historical figure from either region was Saint Augustine (Algeria), followed by Al-Hazen (Iraq), Al-Razi (Persia), Al-Khawarizimi (Persia) and Omar Khayyam (Persia). And of course all the early Christian and Islamic figures, though not counted by Murray, were of MENA origin.
I don't think the current crew would do any such favor.
This is what happens when you let your religious right run amok. Americans: pay attention!Replies: @SFG, @Dmon
The American religious right wouldn’t waste everyone’s time in seminaries. Studying being holy is a Jewish, not a Christian thing. They’d ban abortion, make all movies G-rated, make all women wear skirts, bring back football in every high school in the country…
OK, there must be downsides.
>make all women wear skirts
Give a scruffy homeless man a haircut and you have a homeless man with short hair. But it is indicative of the religious right's childish, lazy, symbols-are-everything mindset.
"make all movies G-rated"
An upside-down world where you can own a gun but not make a movie of you using it. The lefties are more consistent in their safetyist dystopia.
Meh, this is a good problem to have. Would you mind it so much if the Mormons reproduced to an extent that preserved the white majority in the US?
“no way no how would Jewish parents allow a “goy” boy within thirty feet of their daughters”
You don’t have to go to Israel. Haredim are different, but secular Ashkenazi parents don’t really have a say in the matter once little Rachel/Anna/Jenny goes off to university 😉
AnotherDad – despite the Russian 1990s demographic disaster, caused by listening to “US economists”, their situation is better than most of Europe’s.
In Italy and Spain, life expectancy is around 84 years and 81 or 82 for men. In Russia it's 73 and 67 for men (lower than Bangladesh). If people are living 10 or 15 years longer then of course the % of the population over 65 is going to be greater. Most Russian men over 65 are found in the local cemetery, not in the population statistics.
Russia’s “pronatalist” policies are weak, and its fertility mini-boom peaked around 2015 at 1.8TFR.
Ok, but I am talking about being at a Kibutz in a Jewish country, surrounded by Jewish people that know that I am not a Jew. It's entirely different.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_RussiaThe highest white TFRs currently are actually among northern Euros--including the US. (For example US white TFR is 1.65ish--probably near a quarter of kid above Russians.) Contrary to popular belief most white women do like kids and want to have kids. The problem is native northern-Euros are under continual immigration assault. (As well as under cultural--anti-family, pro-slut, female-careerism--propaganda assault.) Even with all the propaganda if norther-Euros were simply not under the immigration assault on jobs and housing--i.e. "affordable family formation"--their TFR would probably be up near 1.8 and the whole issue would be a non-crisis.The big advantage Russia has is that it is absolutely huge. And chock full of natural resources. No place on earth should be as easy to insure "affordable family formation" as Russia. But Putin--obsessed with the Russian empire--has pissed away the free cash flow from oil and gas on his imperial dreams and schemes and done nothing to either curb the illegal immigration--and inevitable creeping islamification issues--nor prioritize "affordable family formation" for young Russians. (And now he's killing a bunch of young Russians and send millions of others scurrying into exile.) Putin's a disaster for Russians, Russia's demographics. He only looks good in not actively conspiring to demographically strangle his nation's people, like our (Jewish run) "Biden" administration. Putin is merely a don't-give-a-shit oaf instead of being actively genocidal.We'll see on Russia. There is a decent post-collapse, pre-Ukraine-follies cohort, who'll come into their breeding prime over the next decade. Hopefully Putin will exit and the Russians will get a guy who gives a shit about Russians and
-- cleans up Putin's imperialist mess
-- stops illegal immigration from the 'stans and sends them back
-- cuts loose Chechnya (and anything else down there he can get rid of)
-- and most importantly prioritizes above all else "affordable family formation" for young Russians.Not holding my breath, but it is at least possible. But they current trend line--"Russia" will be an Islamic state in the next century.
Not true. The actual numbers are hard to suss out, but Sephardi/Mizrahi haredim make up a large fraction of the total number of haredim.
Israel’s parliament has proportional representation so the number of members a party gets is proportional to its share of the vote. The political party which represents Ashkenazi Haredim, which is called United Torah Judaism, has had ~7 parliamentary seats for years . The political party which represents Sephardic/Mizrahi Haredim, which is called Shas, now has double that number. In fact it is entirely growth in the latter which has given the ultra-Orthodox parties their ‘most parliamentary seats ever,’ as the NY Times article claims.
Not a perfect comparison as Shas is a broader ethnic and mainstream conservative party compared to UTJ, whose members are non-mainstream and more a distinct counterculture.
The peak election for Shas was 1999, 17 seats, versus 11 now.
https://en.idi.org.il/israeli-elections-and-parties/parties/shas/
The great replacement in Israel was already foretold long ago! In this parody:
In America, most destructive dysfunction is caused by tax exempt status for Churches and Foundations.
Not sure tax exempt status would change much for churches.
NGOs; Foundations; schools; and gov't agencies on the other hand...
Remember Jonathan Pollard?
This is great news if you are Jewish.
The Ashkenazim have tons of children, enough to remain the upper class in control of government, and now they have an entire Army of Settlers at their disposal.
The Orthodox are human territorial markers, they don’t need Math or English.
Torah study is challenging for the brain in a Talmudic lawyering sort of way, so don’t think these are uneducated Hillbillies.
Ultra orthodox Jews are highly inbred morons who disavow actual education in favour of studying the talmud. Thier I.Q is very low.
“Most Haredi boys focus on religious studies and learn little or no math, English or science”
It is the gaps in the education of some Jews which led to some of the most egregious errors in the WW2 Holocaust narrative.
Examples abound: the mass cremation of humans cannot be carried out quickly with minimal fuel, burial pits cannot be dug below water tables, ‘gas chambers’ cannot be constructed of non air-tight materials, and wells cannot be located next to supposed mass graves.
Someone with minimal education about the physical world can be forgiven for writing impossible tales, but those of more intelligence cannot be forgiven for believing them.
Why?
What “replacement”? They are all Ashkenazi Jews!!
Wish we had that type of “replacement”in our countries, instead of people from Africa and Mexico.
Still, it matters if the Haredi have an average IQ of 90, 95, 100, or 105. Do the women get educated?
Are the Haredi the Jews who think Israel is an illegitimate country because King Solomon isn’t running it, or some such?Replies: @Pixo, @J
“ Are the Haredi the Jews who think Israel is an illegitimate country because King Solomon isn’t running it, or some such?”
Anti-Zionist Jews who go to BDS meetings and march with Arabs are Haredi but only a small minority of them, and are a subgroup of Hasidics. They dress and behave the same way as zionist hasidics, just different sects founded by different charismatic rabbis.
“ How do Haredi do on IQ tests?”
Probably pretty bad because they don’t study math and science much. As an AJ subgroup that has eugenic fertility, their unrealized genotype IQ should still be around 115 however. The very low parental age, typically starting at 19 for women and 23 for men, is also eugenic.
Whereas in modern Haredi society, there doesn't seem to be a gradient. EVERYONE, rich and poor, dumb and smart, has a large family.Replies: @BB753, @Pixo, @Art Deco
Is Haredi women’s (or men’s) fertility correlated positively with IQ? If not, then their IQ is not getting higher. Well, it could if dumb Haredi get killed in accidents a lot.
The Human Varieties blog had a post on GWAS and IQ for various groups. Some had IQs higher or lower than their (common SNP) polygenic scores indicated. I’m wondering if the Haredi have common SNPs that raise IQ (because Ashkenazi), but lots of individually rare SNPs that depress IQ.
Here’s an archived version of the Human Varieties post.
https://archive.is/2021.06.03-063940/https://humanvarieties.org/2021/06/01/coincidence/
For anyone who has had interactions with black hat Jews (in America or Israel) do they seem as sharp as secular Jews? Or, if you're Jewish, have you had friends or relatives become Haredi/ultra-Orthodox, how did their personalities/intelligence compare to people who stayed normally secular?Replies: @Larry, San Francisco, @Pixo
Russia is the youngest European country because all of the old people died.
Imagine thinking that was something to crow about!
And it has avoided as much immigration, because its economy is a disaster, which goes little beyond selling gas cheaply and claiming it is a genius political victory.
Furthermore, Russia’s 90s disaster was not because of “Western economists.” They aren’t magic. Instead it was because Russia stayed as blame-deflecting, close-minded and paranoid as ever. We can see this clearly in the fact that the more Western influenced a post-Soviet country was, the better it did, and the more Russian-influenced, the more of a disaster.
The best case for your argument would be similar to the one that could be made for Haiti over the United States. Comical, but I guess it is important to notice the silver lining of being horribly inept.
However, if you’re making predictions about the future and a country’s ability to fix its problems, I’ll go with the countries that have an effective track record, rather than merely a track record of failing and blaming everyone else for their failure.
I sometimes can’t believe that there are still people cheerleading for Putin, after almost a year of his catastrophe and after his surrender in Kherson. Why do you guys humiliate yourselves so? You were completely wrong. That’s ok. Geopolitics is complicated. You bought into the silliest of the fanfiction. But then why would you not? It isn’t like you can possibly have been certain of your views? Theorising in such complexity with so little information is never going to be certain, so being wrong only makes you imbeciles if you can’t reflect and change course.
"Russia is the youngest European country because all of the old people died."
There may be some truth in that - Russia in the 90s was a disaster zone, thanks to the advice of "Western economists" and its implementation by "oligarchs", many of whom were the fellow tribesmen of the economists. Who were the western journalists, still doing good work today afaik, who documented this in many, many reports? Reading their despatches from Russian nightclubs in the 90s I was reminded of Pasternak's Komarovsky. Babushkas were selling their possessions in the streets while oligarchs competed to have the finest girls on their arm.
By 1990 Russia was completely in oligarch hands - it's a miracle Putin ever got where he is without being killed.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/why-nato-cant-not-let-ukraine-in/#comment-5159790Replies: @Jack D, @Leaves No Shadow
Hum, where do you get the news from ? The Pentagon mailing list? On the ground, the Ukrainian army is being defeated. Badly.
https://youtu.be/lgAxMdW5JikReplies: @Leaves No Shadow
Why would they learn English? Wouldn't they learn Hebrew?Replies: @raga10, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @AndrewR, @RoHa
“English” is shorthand for a modern education. English is the lingua franca of the modern world, the way that Latin once was. In many countries today, English is taught as a 2nd (3rd,4th) language starting from the 1st grade. In Europe, 91% of students in primary and secondary school study English. Most scientific journals are published in English, etc.
This is especially true in Israel which is otherwise isolated from the world with its unique alphabet – unless they taught the kids English (or another language with the Roman alphabet) then they wouldn’t even be able to read the signs in a foreign airport or the label on imported product packages.
Israel's parliament has proportional representation so the number of members a party gets is proportional to its share of the vote. The political party which represents Ashkenazi Haredim, which is called United Torah Judaism, has had ~7 parliamentary seats for years . The political party which represents Sephardic/Mizrahi Haredim, which is called Shas, now has double that number. In fact it is entirely growth in the latter which has given the ultra-Orthodox parties their 'most parliamentary seats ever,' as the NY Times article claims.Replies: @Pixo
“ The political party which represents Ashkenazi Haredim, which is called United Torah Judaism, has had ~7 parliamentary seats for years . The political party which represents Sephardic/Mizrahi Haredim, which is called Shas, now has double that number. ”
Not a perfect comparison as Shas is a broader ethnic and mainstream conservative party compared to UTJ, whose members are non-mainstream and more a distinct counterculture.
The peak election for Shas was 1999, 17 seats, versus 11 now.
https://en.idi.org.il/israeli-elections-and-parties/parties/shas/
Those Greek texts would have been available in the original and in Latin translation much more readily and/ or earlier if not for a) the Ottoman invasion of Constantinople b) the Arab invasion of those parts of the Levant and North Africa which used to belong to the Eastern Roman Empire, also known as Byzantium.
The little good Muslims did in translating choice volumes doesn’t balance out the wholesale destruction of Greek/Christian culture in the places mentioned above, including many volumes lost in the conquest.
And yet somehow it was anti-semitic for Poles to not be thrilled about 8-9% of population being Hasidic Jews(more than third in urban areas in most of the country) in interwar Poland(secular Jews were about 1,5%).
I am concerned at how eugenic Haredi breeding is because in Israel (and to some extent in the US) they function as a non-working welfare supported population (like blacks were in the heyday of welfare in the US). The way that Jews achieved their high IQs in the 1st place is that the smartest Jews bred more than the dumb ones. In E. Europe a good match was the daughter of a rich businessman with a clever religious scholar. A couple like this could afford to have more kids than two idiots.
Whereas in modern Haredi society, there doesn’t seem to be a gradient. EVERYONE, rich and poor, dumb and smart, has a large family.
That’s a reasonable tradeoff given Israel’s demographic contest with the Arabs.
The main driver of intra-ethnic dysgenic fertility all over the world is low and delayed fertility of the top third IQ women. Haredi I doubt have much issue with this.
Any white or NE Asian group that becomes superbreeders has my unqualified blessing and is doing God’s work.Replies: @AndrewR, @Art Deco, @YetAnotherAnon
About 6 million blacks were collecting AFDC in 1992. There were about 28 million blacks in the U.S. at that time.
There are two ways to achieve a low average age for your population – one is to have a lot of kids. The other is to make sure that your people drink a lot of vodka and die young. Guess which method Russia used?
In Italy and Spain, life expectancy is around 84 years and 81 or 82 for men. In Russia it’s 73 and 67 for men (lower than Bangladesh). If people are living 10 or 15 years longer then of course the % of the population over 65 is going to be greater. Most Russian men over 65 are found in the local cemetery, not in the population statistics.
If the dumbest x% of Ashkenazi became/stayed Haredi, then they might have genotypic IQ that’s much lower than their fellows.
Is Haredi women’s (or men’s) fertility correlated positively with IQ? If not, then their IQ is not getting higher. Well, it could if dumb Haredi get killed in accidents a lot.
The Human Varieties blog had a post on GWAS and IQ for various groups. Some had IQs higher or lower than their (common SNP) polygenic scores indicated. I’m wondering if the Haredi have common SNPs that raise IQ (because Ashkenazi), but lots of individually rare SNPs that depress IQ.
Here’s an archived version of the Human Varieties post.
https://archive.is/2021.06.03-063940/https://humanvarieties.org/2021/06/01/coincidence/
For anyone who has had interactions with black hat Jews (in America or Israel) do they seem as sharp as secular Jews? Or, if you’re Jewish, have you had friends or relatives become Haredi/ultra-Orthodox, how did their personalities/intelligence compare to people who stayed normally secular?
Why would this happen?
Sure that lifestyle isn’t appealing to the top 1% IQ’s AJs. If half that group drops out that’s a pretty small effect that takes hundreds of years to impact group IQ.
Dumb haredi have lower marriage rates, more delayed marriage, and may find themselves not up to the demands of that life and drop out of it.
As for IQ depressing rare SNPs, these are correlated with parental age, which is very low for haredi.Replies: @Jack D
It was the Persian influence that saved the classics. The original Arabs were not interested in Greek philosophy.
Is Haredi women’s (or men’s) fertility correlated positively with IQ? If not, then their IQ is not getting higher. Well, it could if dumb Haredi get killed in accidents a lot.
The Human Varieties blog had a post on GWAS and IQ for various groups. Some had IQs higher or lower than their (common SNP) polygenic scores indicated. I’m wondering if the Haredi have common SNPs that raise IQ (because Ashkenazi), but lots of individually rare SNPs that depress IQ.
Here’s an archived version of the Human Varieties post.
https://archive.is/2021.06.03-063940/https://humanvarieties.org/2021/06/01/coincidence/
For anyone who has had interactions with black hat Jews (in America or Israel) do they seem as sharp as secular Jews? Or, if you're Jewish, have you had friends or relatives become Haredi/ultra-Orthodox, how did their personalities/intelligence compare to people who stayed normally secular?Replies: @Larry, San Francisco, @Pixo
When I was young I studied with a number of Hasidic rabbis and their students. They were pretty smart (although they did not believe in evolution). To get prestige in those communities you need to be a scholar so that should have a positive impact on intelligence. As an anecdote the smartest person in my high school (he took AP Calculus as a freshman) and who graduated Summa Cum Laude from an Ivy League university in mathematics became a Hasid. My friends and I were all very surprised.
Including ba'alei teshuva ("masters of repentance" - secular Jews who have returned to Orthodoxy) in the fold is loading the dice, sort of like including trannies in the stats for female swimmers.
As I said in my other post, there hasn't really been enough time to separate Haredim from secular Jews - they are all of the same stock. I have 2nd cousins who stayed in Brooklyn and who are Orthodox (but not Hasidic). One of them came up on my daughter's DNA test. My daughter went to MIT and she teaches girls in an Orthodox elementary school but genetically they are of the same stock.Replies: @Rob, @Peter Lund
Steve, there’s a huge fraction of Ultras who are Sephardi and Mizrahi. Your confusion is probably largely or partially due to the fact that almost all of those Sephardi and Mizrahi ultras except the Chief Rabbi and a few others DRESS like they’re from 1800s Poland.
There’s actually a Canadian-Israeli Jewish guy who makes a bunch of videos in Israel who did a video on this exact topic asking religious ultra jews who are sephardi and Mizrahi why they all dress like they’re Polish. The vast majority didn’t really have an answer and just said “we’re religious”, but he tacitly and at times explicitly points out that while Sephardi/Mizrahi culture and food is now dominant in Israeli Jewish pop culture and much of culture outside of the Ultras, Ashkenazi culture and habits of dress still largely dominate the Sephari/Mizrahi within the ultras.
Here’s that video, titled “Mizrahi religious Jews: Why do you dress like Ashkenazis?”
This guy also does lots of interviews of all sorts of Jews and Arabs in Israel. It’s telling that even though he’s on the center left or left in Israel, hes super zionist and super biased towards the Zionist project in Israel.
Whereas in modern Haredi society, there doesn't seem to be a gradient. EVERYONE, rich and poor, dumb and smart, has a large family.Replies: @BB753, @Pixo, @Art Deco
Myself, I don’t give a flying fig about what happens in Israel. After all, Israelis have been busy screwing every country on earth since 1948.
I think a more interesting and comparable question would be Arabs vs Hispanics; not just Spaniards. The similarities between the Arab world and Latin America are many; both are roughly around the same developmental level; the climate in both is mostly pleasant, containing green hills and desertic environments; religiosity and faith are high, though of course of a different faith; and even the phenotypes bear a resemblance, with a Mediterranean Caucasian stratum added to a mass of brown people, and a few blacks thrown in. And the cultural exchange arising from interactions between the Arab world and Spain was carried over to the New World; hence the Arabic-sounding names of many Latin American cities, and the prevalence of Arabic-origin loan words. Both regions also exhibit a sharp discontinuity between the pre-conquest and post-conquest phases of their history.
The key difference between the two regions is their population sizes; Latin America contains 670M people whereas the Arab world only 420M (or 380M if Sudan and Somalia are excluded). However, if Turkey and Iran are added to make a MENA category, then population sizes would be roughly approximate; thus providing a good basis for comparison of present and historical achievement.
Nobel Laureates
In terms of Nobel Laurates, the MENA region (excluding Israel) counts 5 awardees in the Science category: Elias Corey (Lebanese Christian), Ahmad Zewail (Egyptian Muslim), Aziz Sancar (Turkish Muslim), Serge Haroche (Moroccan Jewish), Claude Cohen-Tannoudji (Algerian Jewish); 1 in the Medicine category: Ardem Patapoutian (Armenian Christian) and 2 in the Literature category: Naguib Mahfouz (Egyptian Muslim) and Orhan Pamuk (Turkish Muslim).
Peter Medawar, a Nobel laureate in Medicine, was of Lebanese Maronite extraction on his father’s side, and English on his mother, but was born and raised in Brazil. Baruj Benacerraf, also a laureate in Medicine, was born in Venezuela to Moroccan Jewish parents. Depending on how they are counted, the MENA region has a total of 8-10 laureates in Science, Medicine and Literature.
Latin America counts 2 laureate in the Sciences: Louis Leloir (Argentine) and Mario Mollina (Mexican); 3 in Medicine: Baruj Benacerraf (Venezuelan of Moroccan Jewish extraction), César Milstein (Argentine of Ashkenazi Jewish extraction) and Bernardo Houssay (Argentine); and 6 in literature: Gabriela Mistral (Chile), Miguel Ángel Asturias (Guatemala), Pablo Neruda (Chile), Gabriel García Márquez (Colombia), Octavio Paz (Mexico), and Mario Vargas Llosa (Peru). Comes to a total of 11-13 depending on how Medawar and Benacerraf are counted.
None of LatAm’s awardees were indigos or mestizos, most seemed to have been mostly of European or MENA origin. Conspicuous in absence from the laureate list are Iran and Brazil. Egypt’s Copts likewise failed to make the cut, though Egypt alongside Turkey racked up the most prizes in the MENA region. Maghrebi Jews and Lebanese Christians were over-represented, it’s also notable that two LatAm laureates were of Maronite and Moroccan Jewish ancestry. MENA region seemed to have outperformed LatAm in the sciences, while the reverse is true of literature.
Historical Accomplishment
A comparison of historical accomplishment between the two regions would be lopsided since the MENA region is multiple times older than LatAm. But for those interested, in Charles Murray’s Human Accomplishment, the MENA region counts the following significant figures:
Astronomy: Ibn Yunus (Egypt) (8), Al-Zarqali (Andalus) (7)
Chemistry: Jabar Ibn Haryana (Persia) (14)
Physics: Al-Hazen (Iraq) (22)
Maths: Al-Khawarizmi (Persia) (23), Omar Khayyam (Persia) (13), Abul Wafa (Persia) (7), Al-Battani (Persia) (4)
Medicine: Al-Razi (Persia) (26), Constantine of Africa (5), Ibn An-Nafis (Syria) (4)
Arabic Literature: 82 significant figures
Western Philosophy: Saint Augustine (Algeria) (30), Averroes (Andalus) (11), Avicenna (Persia) (15), Al-Ghazali (Persia) (4), Al-Kindi (Persia) (3), Ben Josef (1)
Western Literature: Saint Augustine (Algeria) (13)
Total = 101
In Latin America:
Astronomy: None
Chemistry: None
Physics: None
Maths: None
Medicine: None
Western Literature: Mario de Andrade (Brazil) (1), Miguel Asturias (Guatemala) (2), Ricardo Guraldes (Argentina) (2), Jose De Heradia (5), Vincente Huidobro (Chile) (2), Jorge De Lime (Brazil) (1), Pablo Neruda (Chile) (4), Juan Mendoza (5), Cesar Vallejo (Peru) (1), Jorge Borges (4), Mistral Gabriela (2)
Western Philosophy: None
Western Music: Heitor Villa-Lobos (Brazil) (4), Carlos Ramirez (2)
Total: 13
The most significant world historical figure from either region was Saint Augustine (Algeria), followed by Al-Hazen (Iraq), Al-Razi (Persia), Al-Khawarizimi (Persia) and Omar Khayyam (Persia). And of course all the early Christian and Islamic figures, though not counted by Murray, were of MENA origin.
Why would they learn English? Wouldn't they learn Hebrew?Replies: @raga10, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @AndrewR, @RoHa
All their schooling is in Hebrew already.
Please cite the book translation thing. Sounds like something Ben Shapiro would say
This is the number of titles translated from 1979 to 2019; the number is the target language, not the original one:
UNESCO Index Translationum
https://www.unesco.org/xtrans/bsstatexp.aspx?crit1L=4&nTyp=min&topN=50
German --301,935
French--240,045
Spanish -- 228,559
English -- 164,509
Japanese -- 130,649
Dutch -- 111,270
Russian -- 100,806
................................
Chinese -- 63,123
.........................
Arabic-- 13,418
.........................Replies: @AndrewR
Russia’s higher share of under-65 compared to someplace like Greece or Poland is almost entirely a product of lower life expectancy (male life expectancy in 2020 was 66.5!) and migration from poor Muslim countries.
Russia’s “pronatalist” policies are weak, and its fertility mini-boom peaked around 2015 at 1.8TFR.
Yes, but that was a brief period many years ago.
I don’t think the current crew would do any such favor.
This is what happens when you let your religious right run amok. Americans: pay attention!Replies: @SFG, @Dmon
“This is what happens when you let your religious right run amok.”
I was hoping for something more like this.
Are you quite sure it was “the Arabs” not ‘the Persians’?
Not sure you can blame churches for dysfunction.
Not sure tax exempt status would change much for churches.
NGOs; Foundations; schools; and gov’t agencies on the other hand…
Is Haredi women’s (or men’s) fertility correlated positively with IQ? If not, then their IQ is not getting higher. Well, it could if dumb Haredi get killed in accidents a lot.
The Human Varieties blog had a post on GWAS and IQ for various groups. Some had IQs higher or lower than their (common SNP) polygenic scores indicated. I’m wondering if the Haredi have common SNPs that raise IQ (because Ashkenazi), but lots of individually rare SNPs that depress IQ.
Here’s an archived version of the Human Varieties post.
https://archive.is/2021.06.03-063940/https://humanvarieties.org/2021/06/01/coincidence/
For anyone who has had interactions with black hat Jews (in America or Israel) do they seem as sharp as secular Jews? Or, if you're Jewish, have you had friends or relatives become Haredi/ultra-Orthodox, how did their personalities/intelligence compare to people who stayed normally secular?Replies: @Larry, San Francisco, @Pixo
“ If the dumbest x% of Ashkenazi became/stayed Haredi, then they might have genotypic IQ that’s much lower than their fellows.”
Why would this happen?
Sure that lifestyle isn’t appealing to the top 1% IQ’s AJs. If half that group drops out that’s a pretty small effect that takes hundreds of years to impact group IQ.
Dumb haredi have lower marriage rates, more delayed marriage, and may find themselves not up to the demands of that life and drop out of it.
As for IQ depressing rare SNPs, these are correlated with parental age, which is very low for haredi.
Where is your evidence that dumb haredi have lower marriage rates? My understanding is that the Haredi will go to almost any lengths to match up their kids so no matter how dumb or defective the son/daughter is, there is a shidduch for him or her.
Whereas in modern Haredi society, there doesn't seem to be a gradient. EVERYONE, rich and poor, dumb and smart, has a large family.Replies: @BB753, @Pixo, @Art Deco
Haredi men have about a 52% employment rate and women 73%. Their average is about 15-20 points below non-haredi, but they have 6.6 kids per women.
That’s a reasonable tradeoff given Israel’s demographic contest with the Arabs.
The main driver of intra-ethnic dysgenic fertility all over the world is low and delayed fertility of the top third IQ women. Haredi I doubt have much issue with this.
Any white or NE Asian group that becomes superbreeders has my unqualified blessing and is doing God’s work.
The employment-to-population ratio in Israel is at 0.6 quite normal for an affluent country.
Be interesting to see what housing policy is like in Israel, to make such fertility affordable. I tend to assume they just steal building land from Arab farmers, but perhaps I'm being unfair.
In the UK we have the absolute opposite of affordable family formation
https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/160668492So someone with a Masters is offered a job at a salary that won't allow her to live where the job is (I'm guessing Cambridge). This will be almost certainly down to rents/house prices rather than salary (I lived in London in the late 80s on £9k a year - my rent was iirc £12.50 pw. Now the cheapest single room where I lived is £265 pw!)
Banning abortion would lead to more chaotic, dysfunctional families.
>make all women wear skirts
Give a scruffy homeless man a haircut and you have a homeless man with short hair. But it is indicative of the religious right’s childish, lazy, symbols-are-everything mindset.
“When I lived in Manhattan, the few white couples I saw with kids the mother almost always said that pregnancy and childbirth were the worst experieces of their life, and that they nearly died.”
Might be due to high maternal age.
Not necessarily. One of them had tried to get pregnant at 26 and failed. That is not old by any standards. I think that, on average, liberal white women tend to be less fertile than conservstive women since urban white liberals come from long lines of people that engage in K-selection, with old age of first birth, few kids and high parental investment.
But you are right that, on average, white urban liberal tend to have kids at really advanced ages. I read somewhere that the average Manhattan white-collar liberal white woman have their first and often only kid at age 33.Replies: @Anonymous
That’s a reasonable tradeoff given Israel’s demographic contest with the Arabs.
The main driver of intra-ethnic dysgenic fertility all over the world is low and delayed fertility of the top third IQ women. Haredi I doubt have much issue with this.
Any white or NE Asian group that becomes superbreeders has my unqualified blessing and is doing God’s work.Replies: @AndrewR, @Art Deco, @YetAnotherAnon
What’s your ethnicity
“You don’t have to go to Israel. Haredim are different, but secular Ashkenazi parents don’t really have a say in the matter once little Rachel/Anna/Jenny goes off to university”
Ok, but I am talking about being at a Kibutz in a Jewish country, surrounded by Jewish people that know that I am not a Jew. It’s entirely different.
Why would this happen?
Sure that lifestyle isn’t appealing to the top 1% IQ’s AJs. If half that group drops out that’s a pretty small effect that takes hundreds of years to impact group IQ.
Dumb haredi have lower marriage rates, more delayed marriage, and may find themselves not up to the demands of that life and drop out of it.
As for IQ depressing rare SNPs, these are correlated with parental age, which is very low for haredi.Replies: @Jack D
I don’t think that enough time has elapsed for Haredi to have a genotype that is distinct from non-Haredi. If you scratch any secular Jew you don’t have to go back too many generations to find his Haredi great-grandfather. OTOH, I have known a number of ex-Haredi. Once you shave off the beard and put them in normal clothes they look like any other Ashkenazi Jews.
Where is your evidence that dumb haredi have lower marriage rates? My understanding is that the Haredi will go to almost any lengths to match up their kids so no matter how dumb or defective the son/daughter is, there is a shidduch for him or her.
I think you mean Orthodox Jews, not Hasidic Jews in particular. I doubt 85% of the Jewish population was actually observant in 1930. Whether Poles were thrilled about it or not, it was an antique population (nearly wiped out in 1939-45).
I think that IQ as measured by conventional IQ tests would come out low for Haredim because they are so lacking in secular education and parts of the IQ test depend on common knowledge and vocabulary, etc. Probably if you had tested Einstein’s grandfather, he would have come out low also.
Including ba’alei teshuva (“masters of repentance” – secular Jews who have returned to Orthodoxy) in the fold is loading the dice, sort of like including trannies in the stats for female swimmers.
As I said in my other post, there hasn’t really been enough time to separate Haredim from secular Jews – they are all of the same stock. I have 2nd cousins who stayed in Brooklyn and who are Orthodox (but not Hasidic). One of them came up on my daughter’s DNA test. My daughter went to MIT and she teaches girls in an Orthodox elementary school but genetically they are of the same stock.
It seems to me that the wonders of European advancement might have pulled Jews into secular life who differed (on average) on various cognitive and personality measures from Jews who stayed in the ghetto.
It seems that dedicating one’s life to the study of commentary on religious texts might not draw the same sort of people who become MIT professors. I could be wrong(ish). I knew a guy who became ultra-orthodox, though not haredi. He wasn’t dumb. But he also did not move to Israel to have a passel of kids.Replies: @Jack D
And should you wish to make the same argument about Niels Bohr's Jewish grandfather, well:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_B._Adlerhttps://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/Portr%C3%A6t_af_Jenny_Raphael_Adler_med_sine_d%C3%B8tre_Ellen%2C_Hanna_og_Emma.jpgThat is the home his mother grew up in. She's the girl holding the tablet.
His father's father, Abraham Einstein:https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/Abraham_and_Helen_Einstein.jpgHe died in 1868 at a time when poor people most certainly couldn't afford to have their pictures taken.Replies: @Peter Lund
That’s a reasonable tradeoff given Israel’s demographic contest with the Arabs.
The main driver of intra-ethnic dysgenic fertility all over the world is low and delayed fertility of the top third IQ women. Haredi I doubt have much issue with this.
Any white or NE Asian group that becomes superbreeders has my unqualified blessing and is doing God’s work.Replies: @AndrewR, @Art Deco, @YetAnotherAnon
Haredi men have about a 52% employment rate and women 73%.
The employment-to-population ratio in Israel is at 0.6 quite normal for an affluent country.
The depths of your ignorance show no bounds. 90% of the Jews of Poland were not Hasidic. By modern American standards, they were more observant than average American Jews today (but less observant of their religion than most Polish Catholics were of their own). On the whole they were quite secular and modern. In American terms you would call many of them them “modern Orthodox” like Jared Kushner. The young were mostly less observant than their parents and grandparents.
Truly secular Jews would have been found only in the largest cities – in any small town there would have been social and familial pressure to be at least outwardly observant to some extent. My father said that when he wanted to ride his bike to the nearby big city on the Sabbath, he would leave it with a non-Jewish friend who lived at the edge of town so that his father wouldn’t see him riding it.
In this video, Glenn Kurtz shows a three minute film that his grandfather had made in a predominantly Jewish town in Poland one year before WWII broke out. You can see that most of the Jews of the town are dressed in modern dress. The men are mostly beardless. There are a few Hasidim who are wearing black garb but they are a clear and distinct minority.
The film is utterly heartbreaking because within 5 years almost everyone you see on the screen, old and young, Hasidic and secular, will have been murdered.
That’s a reasonable tradeoff given Israel’s demographic contest with the Arabs.
The main driver of intra-ethnic dysgenic fertility all over the world is low and delayed fertility of the top third IQ women. Haredi I doubt have much issue with this.
Any white or NE Asian group that becomes superbreeders has my unqualified blessing and is doing God’s work.Replies: @AndrewR, @Art Deco, @YetAnotherAnon
It’s impressive that their women go out to work AND have 6.6 kids. But who’s looking after the kids while the women are at work?
Be interesting to see what housing policy is like in Israel, to make such fertility affordable. I tend to assume they just steal building land from Arab farmers, but perhaps I’m being unfair.
In the UK we have the absolute opposite of affordable family formation
https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/160668492
So someone with a Masters is offered a job at a salary that won’t allow her to live where the job is (I’m guessing Cambridge). This will be almost certainly down to rents/house prices rather than salary (I lived in London in the late 80s on £9k a year – my rent was iirc £12.50 pw. Now the cheapest single room where I lived is £265 pw!)
I am skeptical about this claim – it sounds very exaggerated- but UNESCO claims that Arabic is one of those languages very few books are being translated into.
This is the number of titles translated from 1979 to 2019; the number is the target language, not the original one:
UNESCO Index Translationum
https://www.unesco.org/xtrans/bsstatexp.aspx?crit1L=4&nTyp=min&topN=50
German –301,935
French–240,045
Spanish — 228,559
English — 164,509
Japanese — 130,649
Dutch — 111,270
Russian — 100,806
…………………………..
Chinese — 63,123
…………………….
Arabic– 13,418
…………………….
Whereas in modern Haredi society, there doesn't seem to be a gradient. EVERYONE, rich and poor, dumb and smart, has a large family.Replies: @BB753, @Pixo, @Art Deco
they function as a non-working welfare supported population (like blacks were in the heyday of welfare in the US).
About 6 million blacks were collecting AFDC in 1992. There were about 28 million blacks in the U.S. at that time.
Including ba'alei teshuva ("masters of repentance" - secular Jews who have returned to Orthodoxy) in the fold is loading the dice, sort of like including trannies in the stats for female swimmers.
As I said in my other post, there hasn't really been enough time to separate Haredim from secular Jews - they are all of the same stock. I have 2nd cousins who stayed in Brooklyn and who are Orthodox (but not Hasidic). One of them came up on my daughter's DNA test. My daughter went to MIT and she teaches girls in an Orthodox elementary school but genetically they are of the same stock.Replies: @Rob, @Peter Lund
Once there is a selection event, they are not “of the same stock,” exactly. You can play around with a threshold bell curve on Emil Kierkegaard’s site (however you spell his name) and see that if you split a population at some threshold, the two new populations have different means on whatever trait(s) were selected. Then, both of the new populations regress partway to the original population’s mean. Then that’s it. The new populations have different means from then on in the absence of more selection. Selection can easily happen in one generation.
It seems to me that the wonders of European advancement might have pulled Jews into secular life who differed (on average) on various cognitive and personality measures from Jews who stayed in the ghetto.
It seems that dedicating one’s life to the study of commentary on religious texts might not draw the same sort of people who become MIT professors. I could be wrong(ish). I knew a guy who became ultra-orthodox, though not haredi. He wasn’t dumb. But he also did not move to Israel to have a passel of kids.
I find it unbelievable that people still spew the 115 IQ bullshit.
There’s plenty of time for that math and physics nonsense, once you’ve learned the fundamentals of torturing indigenous tweens, shooting their eyeballs out, squashing hot activists with bulldozers, and fleeing in panic from Hezbollah.
We will revisit your post in six months time, if you haven’t changed your id by then.
“Russia is the youngest European country because all of the old people died.”
There may be some truth in that – Russia in the 90s was a disaster zone, thanks to the advice of “Western economists” and its implementation by “oligarchs”, many of whom were the fellow tribesmen of the economists. Who were the western journalists, still doing good work today afaik, who documented this in many, many reports? Reading their despatches from Russian nightclubs in the 90s I was reminded of Pasternak’s Komarovsky. Babushkas were selling their possessions in the streets while oligarchs competed to have the finest girls on their arm.
By 1990 Russia was completely in oligarch hands – it’s a miracle Putin ever got where he is without being killed.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/why-nato-cant-not-let-ukraine-in/#comment-5159790
It seems to me that the wonders of European advancement might have pulled Jews into secular life who differed (on average) on various cognitive and personality measures from Jews who stayed in the ghetto.
It seems that dedicating one’s life to the study of commentary on religious texts might not draw the same sort of people who become MIT professors. I could be wrong(ish). I knew a guy who became ultra-orthodox, though not haredi. He wasn’t dumb. But he also did not move to Israel to have a passel of kids.Replies: @Jack D
I guess it depends on what you call a “selection event”. If I had stayed in Brooklyn then maybe my parents would have sent me to a Jewish day school to get away from the Kneegrows who were already stealing my lunch money in public school kindergarten before we left for rural NJ. I have other cousins where the parents sent the kid to religious school and the kid ended up pulling his parents in a more religious direction than my parents even though they started out the same.
In yet another example from my family (different set of cousins, these are actually my first cousins), one of my cousin’s son’s remained secular and became a lawyer and his brother got mixed up with a bad crowd (the Lubavitchers) and became a rabbi with a big long beard and now he has a passel of kids. Meanwhile, the brother of this same cousin had two daughters who are vegans who live in Brooklyn (the hipster part, not the Orthodox world) and I don’t think either one is every going to marry or have children. I don’t think these are real selection events, just random luck of the draw.
the study of commentary on religious texts might not draw the same sort of people who become MIT professors
These two things are not as different as you might think. Someone who has the sitzfleisch to dedicate themselves to a life of study might do well in either occupation, depending on his life circumstances. For one of her college essays, my daughter wrote that in another timeline, she might be selling fish in the market square of a Polish shtetl.
My understanding is that effective contraception has caused many Jewish girls to adopt the traditional male attitude to these things, i.e. that sex with gentiles ‘doesn’t count’. It’s a kind of masturbation, not real sex, so that a Jewish girl can have a string of gentile boyfriends in school and college but still be considered a ‘virgin’ for her Jewish husband.
TLDR: you missed out on a lot of hot Jewess sex
Maybe you are right. Jewish girls usually do have some nice pair of knockers. But I don't think Jewish parents like Goyim teenage boys around their daughters.
This is especially true in Israel which is otherwise isolated from the world with its unique alphabet - unless they taught the kids English (or another language with the Roman alphabet) then they wouldn't even be able to read the signs in a foreign airport or the label on imported product packages.Replies: @Dutch Boy
True. Years ago I studied the Norwegian language so I could communicate with some of my older relatives there. The old folks are gone now and the younger ones all speak at least passable English (vastly better than my rusty Norwegian).
Here we go!
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-judicial-reform.html
Is that Yiddish/German for the rear end? Lol, that’s great.
Ok, let’s take an example that does not hit you close to home. A gentile German-descended couple in Illinois has two kids. One joins a fundamentalist cult/church. The other becomes an engineer. Is the second brother likely smarter than the cultish one?
It's German (but used in Yiddish as well) and means literally "sitting flesh" but figuratively the amount of endurance a person has for sitting still on his butt for the hours and hours and hours of time that it takes to get finely detailed work done.
Might be due to high maternal age.Replies: @Zero Philosopher
“Might be due to high maternal age.”
Not necessarily. One of them had tried to get pregnant at 26 and failed. That is not old by any standards. I think that, on average, liberal white women tend to be less fertile than conservstive women since urban white liberals come from long lines of people that engage in K-selection, with old age of first birth, few kids and high parental investment.
But you are right that, on average, white urban liberal tend to have kids at really advanced ages. I read somewhere that the average Manhattan white-collar liberal white woman have their first and often only kid at age 33.
Sounds like he’s saying that they’re almost… parasites on the rest of society?
Oy vey. “Anti-semiticist canard” alert!
Arabs and Persians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graeco-Arabic_translation_movement
Not all of them Muslims either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunayn_ibn_Ishaq
Ok, let’s take an example that does not hit you close to home. A gentile German-descended couple in Illinois has two kids. One joins a fundamentalist cult/church. The other becomes an engineer. Is the second brother likely smarter than the cultish one?Replies: @Jack D, @Jack D
https://www.elizabethgilbert.com/word-of-the-day-sitzfleisch-asha-a-friend-of-this-page-just-asked-me-to-r/
It’s German (but used in Yiddish as well) and means literally “sitting flesh” but figuratively the amount of endurance a person has for sitting still on his butt for the hours and hours and hours of time that it takes to get finely detailed work done.
Ok, let’s take an example that does not hit you close to home. A gentile German-descended couple in Illinois has two kids. One joins a fundamentalist cult/church. The other becomes an engineer. Is the second brother likely smarter than the cultish one?Replies: @Jack D, @Jack D
This is not my area of expertise, but I think there are factors other than intelligence involved. There are many personality traits that are not mapped to intelligence. Most people are not recruited into cults anyway – they are whatever religion their parents are and if their parents are devout they tend to be devout. If you have grown up in a religious cult then it’s difficult to leave – it will usually involve cutting yourself off from your family and everyone you know. If you stay within the cult there are all sorts of support systems and if you leave, you are alone in the world. And you are probably without the skills that are needed to live in the modern world. Maybe it’s the smart ones who stay given that choice.
"Russia is the youngest European country because all of the old people died."
There may be some truth in that - Russia in the 90s was a disaster zone, thanks to the advice of "Western economists" and its implementation by "oligarchs", many of whom were the fellow tribesmen of the economists. Who were the western journalists, still doing good work today afaik, who documented this in many, many reports? Reading their despatches from Russian nightclubs in the 90s I was reminded of Pasternak's Komarovsky. Babushkas were selling their possessions in the streets while oligarchs competed to have the finest girls on their arm.
By 1990 Russia was completely in oligarch hands - it's a miracle Putin ever got where he is without being killed.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/why-nato-cant-not-let-ukraine-in/#comment-5159790Replies: @Jack D, @Leaves No Shadow
It’s not a miracle. The oligarchs PUT him there.
Why do you do this "true-but-dishonest" stuff, as if I didn't know it already? (don't answer, I know)
I have documented dozens of times Brezovsky's sense of betrayal
https://theintercept.com/2015/06/11/russian-oligarch-wanted-turn-joke-reality/that Putin turned on his creators and survived that experience, which many, many people did not.
Think how powerless Trump was against the US Deep State, and that's in a political entity flawed but nowhere near Russia-1990 flawed.
And Jack, listening to you about Russia is about as useful as listening to Bragadocious about Brits.
https://i.postimg.cc/CMbtSgmG/ukrainetattoo.jpg
The writing at the bottom says "Going to Europe? Swastika tattoos removed at half price!"
Wrong. Russia has a higher birth rate than the West. That has nothing to do with dying old people. You don’t understand statistics. Or anything else.
I was having coffee outdoors, under the portico, when a gentleman asked if he could share my table. There being no others available, I said “Sure”.
We struck up a conversation and he quickly got on to telling me about his work. He told me he was some sort of missionary in Africa involved in race relations, promoting black equality. He had once, he said, attended an event at which Nelson Mandela had been present. He said this with a note of anticipation and paused, looking at me, waiting for my appreciative response.
When none was forthcoming, he plowed on, informing me that not only had he heard Mandela speak but that later, when he was at the urinal in the men’s restroom, an assistant to the great man himself, his second in command, came in, took up a station next to his own and danged if they didn’t take a pee together! WHAT DID I MAKE OF THAT?
“Is that right?” was my tepid response as I tried to delete the mental image his yarn had created in my mind.
Undeterred, he went on about how fortunate he was to have taken part in “history in the making”.
Come to find out, he was affiliated with Lutheran Services, a charitable arm of the Luthern Church, the same which is responsible for sponsoring diverse unassimilable, churlish immivaders.
Why should Churches be excused from paying taxes? Not needing to produce anything marketable, they engage in all manner of unproductive–counterproductive–enterprises. As free riders they have no compulsion to behave morally. Just as this man did, they imagine themselves as goodness incarnate and worthy of special citation for merit while remaining blissfully ignorant of the damage they cause. Had he a clue about current conditions in South Africa? No. He was too busy preening and expecting you to admire him with reverence.
“Well, I’ll be off now. Have a good day”, as I made my escape before he could launch into his next tale.
When donations to churches are tax exempt, other, productive citizens have to make up the Federal revenue shortfall. Thus the evil is compounded.
They don't have any corporate profits, what little sales income they have is derived from vending discarded, donated, and salvaged items, they get no rental income, and any real property they own typically provides housing for just one household (who do not own the property). Philanthropic agencies generally are excused from real property taxes. By the way, Church employees have the same withholding on their pay stubs as everyone else. Your problem is your bad attitude.
Lots of conservative Christian types have no clue what churches actually do with their time and money.
Why would they learn English? Wouldn't they learn Hebrew?Replies: @raga10, @J.Ross, @Jack D, @AndrewR, @RoHa
They need to learn English in order to able to tell the world how victimised they are. Comparatively few people in the world understand Hebrew.
I’ll never understand this “try-hard” love of Putin’s Russia.
The twitter bozos you reference are demographic mediocrities. Other folks have beaten me to it, but the reason Russia is younger than Europe is low life expectancy. (Particularly for males–drinking themselves to death.) Russia’s current TFR has recovered a bit but seems to have plateaued around 1.5-1.6. And for actual Russians worse–1.4 something. (The leading states are the Muslim ones, Chechnya #1.) Russia is not “young” because its nurseries are full of towheaded Russian babies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
The highest white TFRs currently are actually among northern Euros–including the US. (For example US white TFR is 1.65ish–probably near a quarter of kid above Russians.) Contrary to popular belief most white women do like kids and want to have kids.
The problem is native northern-Euros are under continual immigration assault. (As well as under cultural–anti-family, pro-slut, female-careerism–propaganda assault.) Even with all the propaganda if norther-Euros were simply not under the immigration assault on jobs and housing–i.e. “affordable family formation”–their TFR would probably be up near 1.8 and the whole issue would be a non-crisis.
The big advantage Russia has is that it is absolutely huge. And chock full of natural resources. No place on earth should be as easy to insure “affordable family formation” as Russia.
But Putin–obsessed with the Russian empire–has pissed away the free cash flow from oil and gas on his imperial dreams and schemes and done nothing to either curb the illegal immigration–and inevitable creeping islamification issues–nor prioritize “affordable family formation” for young Russians. (And now he’s killing a bunch of young Russians and send millions of others scurrying into exile.)
Putin’s a disaster for Russians, Russia’s demographics. He only looks good in not actively conspiring to demographically strangle his nation’s people, like our (Jewish run) “Biden” administration. Putin is merely a don’t-give-a-shit oaf instead of being actively genocidal.
We’ll see on Russia. There is a decent post-collapse, pre-Ukraine-follies cohort, who’ll come into their breeding prime over the next decade. Hopefully Putin will exit and the Russians will get a guy who gives a shit about Russians and
— cleans up Putin’s imperialist mess
— stops illegal immigration from the ‘stans and sends them back
— cuts loose Chechnya (and anything else down there he can get rid of)
— and most importantly prioritizes above all else “affordable family formation” for young Russians.
Not holding my breath, but it is at least possible. But they current trend line–“Russia” will be an Islamic state in the next century.
Not necessarily. One of them had tried to get pregnant at 26 and failed. That is not old by any standards. I think that, on average, liberal white women tend to be less fertile than conservstive women since urban white liberals come from long lines of people that engage in K-selection, with old age of first birth, few kids and high parental investment.
But you are right that, on average, white urban liberal tend to have kids at really advanced ages. I read somewhere that the average Manhattan white-collar liberal white woman have their first and often only kid at age 33.Replies: @Anonymous
There is a huge difference between having your second or tenth child at 33 and having your first at that age. Bearing a first child physically changes a woman’s body in fundamental ways (even with caesarean delivery) and it’s better for these changes to happen when the body is young and flexible rather than otherwise.
As for Turkey, I wonder if the Kurds have currently an higher fertility than the Turks? There was a old article from 2017 that made Ergogan nervous. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/25/turkey-fertility-secular-religious-divide-erdogan-population-growth
Why should Churches be excused from paying taxes?
They don’t have any corporate profits, what little sales income they have is derived from vending discarded, donated, and salvaged items, they get no rental income, and any real property they own typically provides housing for just one household (who do not own the property). Philanthropic agencies generally are excused from real property taxes. By the way, Church employees have the same withholding on their pay stubs as everyone else. Your problem is your bad attitude.
Well said.
Lots of conservative Christian types have no clue what churches actually do with their time and money.
A Chicago church goer had a White woman from Africa visit. When asked if she knew Dr. Carlson, she said she was Dr. Carlson’s SECRETARY!
Is there no Israeli Betty Friedan to tell those ultra Orthodox women how unhappy they actually are?
Additional Dr. Carlson Stanleyville film.
Zero, most of you verbiage about white American conservatives is nonsense.
But this sentence hits on the key issue. Israel’s Haredi are parasites. They suck up welfare and government benefits while underproducing and dodging military service which is critical to Israel.
Since about 10 minutes after the development of agriculture, mankind has been plagued with parasites finding some grift to eat and live–sometimes very, very well–at the expense of productive people. And every society has the challenge of trying to reign that in–ex. executing criminals–or limit it to within its means–ex. the king can only tax so much–or the parasitism simply drags it down.
The Haredim also demonstrate one of the toxic features of democratic electoral politics. That a particular group can act as a parasite vote bank, getting its parasitism fed by the state from productive taxpayers at the expense of the nation’s public interest.
This is all very much in contrast to American white conservatives who are overwhelming the people who do the materially productive labor upon which everyone else depends.
I’m not Jewish and don’t pretend to know anything about Israel. But I believe there is a group “national religious” in Israel–religiously observant (what you’d think of as “Modern Orthodox” in America) and productively employed and patriotic–which would be a better analog to conservative believing Christians in the US. (Though their mean family size–I believe near 4–would be at least a kid higher than US conservative Christians, who–though there are outliers–are not wildly fertile, just moreso than the white mean and maybe a kid higher than liberal seculars.)
Those in the know on Israeli matters can correct me.
I agree with you that many members of religious cults were born into them. Some religious cult leaders, though, have quite mesmerizing abilities and can draw people into their cult. Long before he talked a thousand of his followers into committing mass suicide, Jim Jones ran a church here in Indianapolis my grandmother got involved in. She finally managed to pull herself out of it and then warned my dad to stay away from him. My dad told me she said to him, “stay away from that Jim Jones; he’s a bad one”. He turned out to be quite a bad one.
The Times runs a lot of stuff about Haredim in New York, troubled by their welfare and public service dependence, the subsidized schools and housing many of them utilize, etc. Apparently they are the only demographic in New York City who does this.
But this sentence hits on the key issue. Israel's Haredi are parasites. They suck up welfare and government benefits while underproducing and dodging military service which is critical to Israel.
Since about 10 minutes after the development of agriculture, mankind has been plagued with parasites finding some grift to eat and live--sometimes very, very well--at the expense of productive people. And every society has the challenge of trying to reign that in--ex. executing criminals--or limit it to within its means--ex. the king can only tax so much--or the parasitism simply drags it down.
The Haredim also demonstrate one of the toxic features of democratic electoral politics. That a particular group can act as a parasite vote bank, getting its parasitism fed by the state from productive taxpayers at the expense of the nation's public interest.
This is all very much in contrast to American white conservatives who are overwhelming the people who do the materially productive labor upon which everyone else depends.
I'm not Jewish and don't pretend to know anything about Israel. But I believe there is a group "national religious" in Israel--religiously observant (what you'd think of as "Modern Orthodox" in America) and productively employed and patriotic--which would be a better analog to conservative believing Christians in the US. (Though their mean family size--I believe near 4--would be at least a kid higher than US conservative Christians, who--though there are outliers--are not wildly fertile, just moreso than the white mean and maybe a kid higher than liberal seculars.)
Those in the know on Israeli matters can correct me.Replies: @Zero Philosopher
AnotherDad:
“Zero, most of you verbiage about white American conservatives is nonsense.”
No, it’s not. It is 100% accurate. That white liberals, on average, earn more, are better educated and committ less crimes than white conservatives is a fact corroborated by statistics.
“Since about 10 minutes after the development of agriculture, mankind has been plagued with parasites finding some grift to eat and live–sometimes very, very well–at the expense of productive people”
There were free-riders among Paleolithic hunter-gatherers, too. Like the guy that contributed almost nothing to the success of the hunt, but still got as much meat as the most successful hunter in the tribe. not to mention that raiding is an ancient thing, and many young men lived from killing tribes and stealing their food. Bandits are hardly an invention of the Neolithic Revolution.
“This is all very much in contrast to American white conservatives who are overwhelming the people who do the materially productive labor upon which everyone else depends.”
This is not true. The ancestors of white liberals are the founders of all the Ivy League universities, and their states are the richest and most advanced in the country. They also founded most of America’s historical corporations and Sillicon Valley. Nowadyas, white liberals tend to earn more and have higher level of educations compared to white conservatives. But if you define “materailly productive labor” as blue collar work, then you are probably right.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-judicial-reform.htmlReplies: @International Jew
I give them credit for reaching out to Daniel Friedmann. Otherwise, it was about what I expected.
Still, it matters if the Haredi have an average IQ of 90, 95, 100, or 105. Do the women get educated?
Are the Haredi the Jews who think Israel is an illegitimate country because King Solomon isn’t running it, or some such?Replies: @Pixo, @J
The Haredi (i.e. God-Fearing) Jews are only two generations away from the most liberal Jews. A hundred years ago all Jews were very religious. Haredim study all day – mostly medieval philosophical texts in Aramaic – and they have higher IQ than the average American Jew. If they are poor, it is by choice.
This is the number of titles translated from 1979 to 2019; the number is the target language, not the original one:
UNESCO Index Translationum
https://www.unesco.org/xtrans/bsstatexp.aspx?crit1L=4&nTyp=min&topN=50
German --301,935
French--240,045
Spanish -- 228,559
English -- 164,509
Japanese -- 130,649
Dutch -- 111,270
Russian -- 100,806
................................
Chinese -- 63,123
.........................
Arabic-- 13,418
.........................Replies: @AndrewR
Interesting but I imagine there is a lot more chaff among books translated into Spanish vs books translated into Arabic. Arabs aren’t missing out by not being able to read all the awful fiction churned out by alcoholic American writers
The real reason that there is less translation is that book (especially novel) reading/buying is just not where consumers spend their leisure time/money in the Arab world and to the extent that it is, Arabic speakers would just read the book in some Western language that they do know - if not English, then French or German or maybe even Russian. Any academic books would be read in the original English. So there is just not a big market for translated fiction or other popular works. Probably if you did, your work would just get pirated anyway so there is even less economic incentive to spend the money on translation and publishing.
However, what this does get at is that the Arab public is not into reading and this does reflect a general low level of intellectual activity by Western standards.Replies: @Yahya
According to the book “Beyond Liberal and Conservative” by Maddox and Lilie, surveys of the political beliefs of different income groups found that upper income groups actually tend to be more libertarian. You can take the economically conservative and socially liberal libertarians and throw them into the liberal category to make liberals seem wealthier and more educated than they actually are.
Instead of putting everyone into one of two boxes, liberal or conservative, it’s more useful to classify people as libertarian, liberal, conservative or populist. For example, blacks vote for the party of liberals, the Democrats. Are blacks wealthy, educated people with low crime rates? No, they are not. Surveys show they are populists: believers in socialist redistribution of wealth but at the same time often socially conservative on issues like abortion, gay rights and drug legalization. There is no populist party to vote for, though, so they have to pick the liberal Democrat party or the conservative Republican party. They largely vote Democrat because the welfare, affirmative action and soft on crime policies the Democrats offer is more important to them.
One can check for various countries & except for Switzerland, China, Argentina and a few others, it’s mostly trash. Arabic language countries generally translate works & authors from other Muslim countries.
https://www.unesco.org/xtrans/bsstatlist.aspx?m=10
“The oligarchs PUT him there.”
Why do you do this “true-but-dishonest” stuff, as if I didn’t know it already? (don’t answer, I know)
I have documented dozens of times Brezovsky’s sense of betrayal
https://theintercept.com/2015/06/11/russian-oligarch-wanted-turn-joke-reality/
that Putin turned on his creators and survived that experience, which many, many people did not.
Think how powerless Trump was against the US Deep State, and that’s in a political entity flawed but nowhere near Russia-1990 flawed.
And Jack, listening to you about Russia is about as useful as listening to Bragadocious about Brits.
The writing at the bottom says “Going to Europe? Swastika tattoos removed at half price!”
It’s ironic that modern liberal Jews insist that gender equality is a fundamental Jewish value since traditional Judaism as practiced by the Haredim is just about the most patriarchal culture around. What other culture insists that women shoulder not only all the domestic duties but also all the breadwinning?
As for the idea that "gender equality is a fundamental Jewish value" , I don't know that Jewish feminists are really saying this to begin with and to the extent that they are, it's just some sort of sophistry or rationalization as is common on the Left (and on the Right for that matter). Leftists are always declaring that whatever they favor is a "fundamental value". "The right of men pretending to be women to use the ladies room is a fundamental American value." Just because they say so doesn't make it so.
However, it is important to understand that European Jews did not keep their women locked up like Arabs. Jewish women were present in the public sphere. For a Jewish woman to mind the shop while her husband studied the holy books was a permissible, even admirable arrangement. Even now if you see scenes of street life in the Arab world, it's mostly men who are out on the street but in photos/film of life in Eastern Europe, Jewish men and women are seen in equal numbers.
When White people choose to live among African blacks.
It takes a special kind of cluelessness not to be cognizant of the implicit rebuke a White heaps upon black Africans when he, the Whitey, chooses to “walk among them” and “do good”. Those Whites say, in effect, “I am superior. I choose to grace you with my presence and you must forebear and take me as I present myself to you. It is important to me to regard myself in just such a light and you must play along with me, on my terms.” Christians do this. This is what Christians do.
Inevitably, blacks tire of the role in which they are cast by this Drama and rise up and murder the Whites whose presence reminds them, ala Sam Francis, of how inferior in every way they are to Whites.
Dr. Carlson chose to become a veterinarian who admired himself for entering the beast’s cage unarmed. As was foreordained, the gorillas killed him.
"Russia is the youngest European country because all of the old people died."
There may be some truth in that - Russia in the 90s was a disaster zone, thanks to the advice of "Western economists" and its implementation by "oligarchs", many of whom were the fellow tribesmen of the economists. Who were the western journalists, still doing good work today afaik, who documented this in many, many reports? Reading their despatches from Russian nightclubs in the 90s I was reminded of Pasternak's Komarovsky. Babushkas were selling their possessions in the streets while oligarchs competed to have the finest girls on their arm.
By 1990 Russia was completely in oligarch hands - it's a miracle Putin ever got where he is without being killed.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/why-nato-cant-not-let-ukraine-in/#comment-5159790Replies: @Jack D, @Leaves No Shadow
“Russians dindu nuffin. It wuz Western economists/Jews!”
Spiritually black white racists are pathetic. You guys aren’t sure if you want to be the new black people or be with them.
More Western influence = Poland, Czechia, Slovakia. Less Western influence = Russia, Belarus and Ukraine (until recently.)
Therefore blaming Western influence is stupid.
But what can I expect from someone who has made the sort of predictions about the war you have made so far and yet are still confidently saying “let’s see in six months!”
Remember how no one protested COVID zero in China except that one guy with the banner and he was dismissed as a totally unrepresentative crank? Then, very little time later, suddenly other protests broke out and China cancelled Zero COVID with zero preparation in obviously a blind panic?
Face-saving authoritarian regimes look confident and strong until they suddenly don’t. This is because they prioritise appearances over everything else. 6 months is probably too short for you to learn this in Russia’s case but 1 year is probably not. I wonder what deluded and bitter conspiracy theory you’ll have to ruminate over then? How could they take away your completely fantasy idea of Russia from you? A country that is in reality run by a stupider, more cynical and corrupt version of GWB, slowly degenerated by being in power for far too long.
I don’t know where you got that from. Maybe in 1966 or something but probably not even then. Jewish girls today are not just having sex with, but marrying, non-Jews (more often than they marry Jews). Any Jewish groom today would either (a) not care whether his bride was a virgin or not or (b) if he did care, would look equally (or more) askance at his predecessor(s) having been non-Jewish vs. Jewish. So your whole thesis is ridiculous.
I tried to quickly bing up some data, but didn't find anything on target. Pew folks did do a recent survey, but of course, they don't have the year by year tracking which would tell the tale:
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/05/11/marriage-families-and-children/
It's hard to square up these two paragraphswithout suggesting continual massive dynamiting of Jewish-gentile inter-marriages.
~~~As "old school" as it is, "b" is still the #1 objective criteria available for a guy can use to reduce the change of getting divorce raped. Obviously subjective estimations of character are critical. But the difference in divorce between "virgin to you" and "boyfriends before" is huge.Replies: @Jack D
This just sounds like sour grapes. Arabs love, for example, awful telenovelas that are churned out by alcoholic Mexican scriptwriters. Because no reading is required.
The real reason that there is less translation is that book (especially novel) reading/buying is just not where consumers spend their leisure time/money in the Arab world and to the extent that it is, Arabic speakers would just read the book in some Western language that they do know – if not English, then French or German or maybe even Russian. Any academic books would be read in the original English. So there is just not a big market for translated fiction or other popular works. Probably if you did, your work would just get pirated anyway so there is even less economic incentive to spend the money on translation and publishing.
However, what this does get at is that the Arab public is not into reading and this does reflect a general low level of intellectual activity by Western standards.
No, it’s not at all ironic. It follows. Some leading feminists (e.g. Shulamith Firestone) grew up in Orthodox households and their feminism was an express rejection of the patriarchy that they had experienced at home. Others experienced that same sexism on a secular level – Daddy expected Son #1 to go to med school but Daughter #1 to get her Mrs. degree and Daughter #1 didn’t like it that she was considered inferior to her brother. Modern feminism exists in part as a RESULT of Jewish patriarchal culture.
As for the idea that “gender equality is a fundamental Jewish value” , I don’t know that Jewish feminists are really saying this to begin with and to the extent that they are, it’s just some sort of sophistry or rationalization as is common on the Left (and on the Right for that matter). Leftists are always declaring that whatever they favor is a “fundamental value”. “The right of men pretending to be women to use the ladies room is a fundamental American value.” Just because they say so doesn’t make it so.
However, it is important to understand that European Jews did not keep their women locked up like Arabs. Jewish women were present in the public sphere. For a Jewish woman to mind the shop while her husband studied the holy books was a permissible, even admirable arrangement. Even now if you see scenes of street life in the Arab world, it’s mostly men who are out on the street but in photos/film of life in Eastern Europe, Jewish men and women are seen in equal numbers.
The real reason that there is less translation is that book (especially novel) reading/buying is just not where consumers spend their leisure time/money in the Arab world and to the extent that it is, Arabic speakers would just read the book in some Western language that they do know - if not English, then French or German or maybe even Russian. Any academic books would be read in the original English. So there is just not a big market for translated fiction or other popular works. Probably if you did, your work would just get pirated anyway so there is even less economic incentive to spend the money on translation and publishing.
However, what this does get at is that the Arab public is not into reading and this does reflect a general low level of intellectual activity by Western standards.Replies: @Yahya
I don’t really pay much attention to what’s being played TV, but from my little experience, I don’t think this is true. From what I gather, Arabic channels play mostly Turkish and Korean soap operas. But soap operas are watched everywhere around the globe; so Arabs are hardly alone. If you’re claiming they watch more than other peoples, well I’d like to see some quantification. Otherwise I’ll chalk up your statement to your anti-semitism.
This on the other hand is true; almost all educated Arabs are fluent in either English or French; so there’s not much reason to translate books into Arabic. English and French translators have already done all the work. For example, I read Tolstoy and Aristotle in English just fine (though of course Aristotle’s works are somewhat hieroglyphic); there’s not much reason for me to want or need an Arabic translation of these works.
Another key reason for the lack of translation, which everyone here missed; is that Arabs are strongly interested in books related to Islamic theology; most of which are written in the language of Islam… Arabic. As Bardon Kaldian mentioned; Arab countries are strongly interested in Islam-related works from other countries; and what few are not written in Arabic are promptly translated.
Wonder how long that will be true? Peak out-marriage might have already happened?
I tried to quickly bing up some data, but didn’t find anything on target. Pew folks did do a recent survey, but of course, they don’t have the year by year tracking which would tell the tale:
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/05/11/marriage-families-and-children/
It’s hard to square up these two paragraphs
without suggesting continual massive dynamiting of Jewish-gentile inter-marriages.
~~~
As “old school” as it is, “b” is still the #1 objective criteria available for a guy can use to reduce the change of getting divorce raped. Obviously subjective estimations of character are critical. But the difference in divorce between “virgin to you” and “boyfriends before” is huge.
2nd, correlation is not the same thing as causation. Maybe virgins are disproportionately from fundamentalist religious groups who are unlikely to divorce so the real driver is not the bride's virginity but her membership in the sect.
So unless you are in the market for a religious fundamentalist bride it's not going to help you choose. If you are a secular male and are not interested in marrying a religious fundamentalist of some sort and you limit your dating to virgins only, it's gonna be pretty slim pickins, I would think.Replies: @AnotherDad
I tried to quickly bing up some data, but didn't find anything on target. Pew folks did do a recent survey, but of course, they don't have the year by year tracking which would tell the tale:
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/05/11/marriage-families-and-children/
It's hard to square up these two paragraphswithout suggesting continual massive dynamiting of Jewish-gentile inter-marriages.
~~~As "old school" as it is, "b" is still the #1 objective criteria available for a guy can use to reduce the change of getting divorce raped. Obviously subjective estimations of character are critical. But the difference in divorce between "virgin to you" and "boyfriends before" is huge.Replies: @Jack D
First of all, haven’t you phrased that wrong? Shouldn’t the 1st choice be just plain “virgin” ?
2nd, correlation is not the same thing as causation. Maybe virgins are disproportionately from fundamentalist religious groups who are unlikely to divorce so the real driver is not the bride’s virginity but her membership in the sect.
So unless you are in the market for a religious fundamentalist bride it’s not going to help you choose. If you are a secular male and are not interested in marrying a religious fundamentalist of some sort and you limit your dating to virgins only, it’s gonna be pretty slim pickins, I would think.
-- "virgin" (virgin except for you) -- divorce 20%
-- "normal girl" a few (1-3) prior "didn't work out" "relationships" -- divorce 40-50%
-- "slut" many prior relationships and/or casual hookups -- divorce likely 70-80%The last category--just don't even see any point. Either her native personality is "slut" or she's been saddled and unsaddled by enough different riders that the female sexual bonding typical among the civilized races is simply shot.I'm a "conservative"--I don't even think of myself as particularly conservative, just sane--pro-marriage guy. But realistically the social and legal environment (most states) is very shitty for guys. Nothing, not society, friends, and certainly not the law! works to push a woman to stay married, other than her own bonding and character. So a guy really needs to be super-choosy just to do the most ordinary stuff of life--get married, have a family.Replies: @Jack D
OK, then alcoholic Turkish and Korean script writers (BTW, for an Islamic people, the Turks drink a fair bit – not as much as Europeans but not nothing either).
It doesn’t change my point, which is not to be anti-Arab but to note that Arabs have no real objection to trashy entertainment, they just prefer to take it in the form of video rather than in writing. Whereas AndrewR was trying to spin it that Arabs are somehow on an elevated moral level and are not interested in reading decadent American romance novels.
As to whether telenovelas/soap operas are more or less popular in the Arab world than elsewhere, I have no idea but it’s my impression that they are fairly popular.
Funny though that you should mention Aristotle. In the Middle Ages when the West had lost all interest in Greek philosophy, a lot of the works of the Greek philosophers survived only in the Islamic world and reached the West in translation from the Arabic. That it runs the other way now shows that the Arab world has lost its intellectual leadership that it once had.
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/226812/summary
Most of the original works were preserved in Byzantium or by the Catholic church.Replies: @Peter Lund
2nd, correlation is not the same thing as causation. Maybe virgins are disproportionately from fundamentalist religious groups who are unlikely to divorce so the real driver is not the bride's virginity but her membership in the sect.
So unless you are in the market for a religious fundamentalist bride it's not going to help you choose. If you are a secular male and are not interested in marrying a religious fundamentalist of some sort and you limit your dating to virgins only, it's gonna be pretty slim pickins, I would think.Replies: @AnotherDad
You’re right. Poor phraseology. My mental conception is “virgin when she comes to you”. “Only partner is you” is the key aspect. Many couples “jump the gun”.
True. That’s a separate driver–while highly relevant does not apply to most people.
But here I think you’re overbaking it. It’s highly age-dependent. Lots of couples meet as undergrads–or even HS–and stayed together. (Not everyone is banging away in HS.) I know a few couples getting married recently who met five or more years ago in their early 20s and are now tying the knot. But obviously if you’re meeting as Big Law associates at 26 … then the odds are low.
~~
I’ll also note that there are not just two, but sort of three rough buckets that show up in the divorce survey stats I’ve seen:
— “virgin” (virgin except for you) — divorce 20%
— “normal girl” a few (1-3) prior “didn’t work out” “relationships” — divorce 40-50%
— “slut” many prior relationships and/or casual hookups — divorce likely 70-80%
The last category–just don’t even see any point. Either her native personality is “slut” or she’s been saddled and unsaddled by enough different riders that the female sexual bonding typical among the civilized races is simply shot.
I’m a “conservative”–I don’t even think of myself as particularly conservative, just sane–pro-marriage guy. But realistically the social and legal environment (most states) is very shitty for guys. Nothing, not society, friends, and certainly not the law! works to push a woman to stay married, other than her own bonding and character. So a guy really needs to be super-choosy just to do the most ordinary stuff of life–get married, have a family.
The Haredim are smarter than religious right Americans. Whereas they seek to fund their own reproduction, American religious righties want to ban abortion so there will be a baby boom in the ghetto.
“make all movies G-rated”
An upside-down world where you can own a gun but not make a movie of you using it. The lefties are more consistent in their safetyist dystopia.
-- "virgin" (virgin except for you) -- divorce 20%
-- "normal girl" a few (1-3) prior "didn't work out" "relationships" -- divorce 40-50%
-- "slut" many prior relationships and/or casual hookups -- divorce likely 70-80%The last category--just don't even see any point. Either her native personality is "slut" or she's been saddled and unsaddled by enough different riders that the female sexual bonding typical among the civilized races is simply shot.I'm a "conservative"--I don't even think of myself as particularly conservative, just sane--pro-marriage guy. But realistically the social and legal environment (most states) is very shitty for guys. Nothing, not society, friends, and certainly not the law! works to push a woman to stay married, other than her own bonding and character. So a guy really needs to be super-choosy just to do the most ordinary stuff of life--get married, have a family.Replies: @Jack D
I generally agree with what you’ve written above. Normal humans of both genders start their sex lives somewhere in the late teens, give or take a couple of years depending on the society and historical period. Historically this was done in the context of marriage but the median age for the first wedding among women in the United States is now 28.6 years. and for men, the median age is 30.6 years.
It’s just not realistic to expect (in the presence of effective birth control and the absence of religious or familial strictures) that women (or men) are going to defer having sex for a decade or more until they get married. We are talking about humans, not saints. As you say, for normal women (and men) this usually occurs in the context of a handful of long term serially monogamous relationships and not a long series of one night stands. A few people marry their high school sweethearts but among the college educated, this is pretty rare. But if you are say a Big Law associate or someone with other graduate education and are not a devout religious believer and you want to marry a woman with a comparable level of education/intellect who is about your age and will be compatible with you, if you are holding out for a virgin bride you are probably not going to find a bride at all.
This is a meme that’s widely taught in schools, but might actually be wrong. This article by Bernard G. Dod From John Hopkins University Press lists every work of Aristotle and how they were preserved. Over 30 complete works by Aristotle remain, and none of them only in Arabic. Dod points out “There is a tenacious legend that the West learnt its Aristotle via translations from the Arabic, but the fact is that the West turned to Arabic-Latin translations only in default of the more intelligible Greek-Latin ones”
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/226812/summary
Most of the original works were preserved in Byzantium or by the Catholic church.
Yes, but many of them really were unavailable in Latin/Greek for centuries... because they only survived in a few scattered manuscripts here and there. We have since recovered texts that only survived as palimpsests -- and we can expect to recover some that only exist in a single copy in scorched papyrus scroll from a villa in Herculaneum. We just need to improve our non-invasive scanning techniques a bit more...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herculaneum_papyri#Virtual_unrolling
Mark G;
“You can take the economically conservative and socially liberal libertarians and throw them into the liberal category to make liberals seem wealthier and more educated than they actually are”
I don’t care what this little book says. I care about stats across broad sweeps of demographics. Liberalistm tends to correlate strongly with income, white-collar occupation and being more urban rather than agricultural. Ivy League universities are all in “Blue” states.
I don’t put fiscal conservatives in the liberal category, but I do put social libertarians in the liberal category because that is what they are. Being a liberal is mostly about being a humanist, and believing in giving people the freedom to live their lives as they see fit, like giving them the freedom to use drugs or be gay or whatever. I tis liberals that agree with social liberatarianism, not conservatives.
“TLDR: you missed out on a lot of hot Jewess sex”
Maybe you are right. Jewish girls usually do have some nice pair of knockers. But I don’t think Jewish parents like Goyim teenage boys around their daughters.
“I sometimes can’t believe that there are still people cheerleading for Putin, after almost a year of his catastrophe and after his surrender in Kherson.”
Hum, where do you get the news from ? The Pentagon mailing list? On the ground, the Ukrainian army is being defeated. Badly.
Just in August, he was demanding support for Ukraine be stopped as supposedly Ukraine was at a point where they were about to decisively lose anyway.
Instead, Ukraine decisively defeated Russia in Kherson and in the North-East.
He also, in the same article, predicted huge public winter demonstrations in support of Russia in Europe, which would break apart NATO. Lol
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/reinforcing-failure-in-ukraine/
In March, he declared "However, the unevenness in Russian military performance has no discernible impact on the operational level of war, where Russian forces continue to pursue, encircle, isolate and destroy Ukrainian ground forces. The end of this tragedy is not in doubt. Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine will be annihilated or captured."
And was again, completely wrong.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/is-there-a-path-to-peace-in-ukraine/
Most comically, in December 2021, he declared that Russia would roll over the full combined arms of NATO forces like Germany did France in WW2.
And he had the ironic gall to add "it’s an indisputable fact: Washington leads the world in self-delusion."
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/washington-prepares-to-fail-in-ukraine/
He is all style and no substance, and his style is basically distilled narcissism. What do you think of when you read this: https://medium.com/relationships-101/the-dilemma-of-codependent-men-75a20edcca0fReplies: @BB753
“As we all know, no politicians have ever exploited and/or encouraged demographic change for the sake of electoral advantage”
It’s called citizenship. And it’s a bedrock of Western Civilization.
Every country on earth?
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/226812/summary
Most of the original works were preserved in Byzantium or by the Catholic church.Replies: @Peter Lund
> Most of the original works were preserved in Byzantium or by the Catholic church.
Yes, but many of them really were unavailable in Latin/Greek for centuries… because they only survived in a few scattered manuscripts here and there. We have since recovered texts that only survived as palimpsests — and we can expect to recover some that only exist in a single copy in scorched papyrus scroll from a villa in Herculaneum. We just need to improve our non-invasive scanning techniques a bit more…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herculaneum_papyri#Virtual_unrolling
Including ba'alei teshuva ("masters of repentance" - secular Jews who have returned to Orthodoxy) in the fold is loading the dice, sort of like including trannies in the stats for female swimmers.
As I said in my other post, there hasn't really been enough time to separate Haredim from secular Jews - they are all of the same stock. I have 2nd cousins who stayed in Brooklyn and who are Orthodox (but not Hasidic). One of them came up on my daughter's DNA test. My daughter went to MIT and she teaches girls in an Orthodox elementary school but genetically they are of the same stock.Replies: @Rob, @Peter Lund
Almost certainly not.
His mother’s father, Julius Doerzbacher:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein_family#Pauline_Koch_(Albert’s_mother)
And should you wish to make the same argument about Niels Bohr’s Jewish grandfather, well:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_B._Adler
That is the home his mother grew up in. She’s the girl holding the tablet.
His father’s father, Abraham Einstein:
He died in 1868 at a time when poor people most certainly couldn’t afford to have their pictures taken.
Excluding Papua-New Guinea and Bhutan.
And should you wish to make the same argument about Niels Bohr's Jewish grandfather, well:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_B._Adlerhttps://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/Portr%C3%A6t_af_Jenny_Raphael_Adler_med_sine_d%C3%B8tre_Ellen%2C_Hanna_og_Emma.jpgThat is the home his mother grew up in. She's the girl holding the tablet.
His father's father, Abraham Einstein:https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/Abraham_and_Helen_Einstein.jpgHe died in 1868 at a time when poor people most certainly couldn't afford to have their pictures taken.Replies: @Peter Lund
I somehow messed up the order when I replaced the wikipedia image links that didn’t load with some that would 🙁
Hum, where do you get the news from ? The Pentagon mailing list? On the ground, the Ukrainian army is being defeated. Badly.
https://youtu.be/lgAxMdW5JikReplies: @Leaves No Shadow
Macgregor is just the latest in a long line of pompous pro-Russia grifters. He has the same style of total bullsh*t confidence that appeals to all of you people hereabouts. However, let’s look at his track record:
Just in August, he was demanding support for Ukraine be stopped as supposedly Ukraine was at a point where they were about to decisively lose anyway.
Instead, Ukraine decisively defeated Russia in Kherson and in the North-East.
He also, in the same article, predicted huge public winter demonstrations in support of Russia in Europe, which would break apart NATO. Lol
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/reinforcing-failure-in-ukraine/
In March, he declared “However, the unevenness in Russian military performance has no discernible impact on the operational level of war, where Russian forces continue to pursue, encircle, isolate and destroy Ukrainian ground forces. The end of this tragedy is not in doubt. Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine will be annihilated or captured.”
And was again, completely wrong.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/is-there-a-path-to-peace-in-ukraine/
Most comically, in December 2021, he declared that Russia would roll over the full combined arms of NATO forces like Germany did France in WW2.
And he had the ironic gall to add “it’s an indisputable fact: Washington leads the world in self-delusion.”
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/washington-prepares-to-fail-in-ukraine/
He is all style and no substance, and his style is basically distilled narcissism. What do you think of when you read this: https://medium.com/relationships-101/the-dilemma-of-codependent-men-75a20edcca0f
Just in August, he was demanding support for Ukraine be stopped as supposedly Ukraine was at a point where they were about to decisively lose anyway.
Instead, Ukraine decisively defeated Russia in Kherson and in the North-East.
He also, in the same article, predicted huge public winter demonstrations in support of Russia in Europe, which would break apart NATO. Lol
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/reinforcing-failure-in-ukraine/
In March, he declared "However, the unevenness in Russian military performance has no discernible impact on the operational level of war, where Russian forces continue to pursue, encircle, isolate and destroy Ukrainian ground forces. The end of this tragedy is not in doubt. Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine will be annihilated or captured."
And was again, completely wrong.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/is-there-a-path-to-peace-in-ukraine/
Most comically, in December 2021, he declared that Russia would roll over the full combined arms of NATO forces like Germany did France in WW2.
And he had the ironic gall to add "it’s an indisputable fact: Washington leads the world in self-delusion."
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/washington-prepares-to-fail-in-ukraine/
He is all style and no substance, and his style is basically distilled narcissism. What do you think of when you read this: https://medium.com/relationships-101/the-dilemma-of-codependent-men-75a20edcca0fReplies: @BB753
Forget McGregor. Is Ukraine factually losing or not? That’s the point.
2. Victory is also defined as the achievement of political goals.
Therefore to force Ukraine to agree to Russia's demands, Russia either needs to take Kyiv, or outlast Ukraine.
Or to force Russia to agree to Ukrainian demands, Ukraine needs to take Crimea or outlast Russia.
Outlasting is the worst option for both, as it is determined by 4 factors: motivation, manpower, equipment and the attritional balance.
However, in this area, Ukraine will win. Ukrainians are more motivated in Ukraine, which also means that their manpower is greater. Ukraine may be smaller than Russia, but obviously there are more Ukrainians willing to fight and die for Ukraine than Russians who will fight and die for Ukraine. You might disagree, but even people like Karlin notice that Ukrainian mobilisation is de facto voluntary. Russian is not.
Equipment is also on Ukraine's side. The US will be perfectly bipartisanly happy to spend a small fraction of its defence budget helping Ukraine for decades. The UK is donating better tanks than Russia has. And Poland will likely be end up giving their entire set of tanks and buying more. Western support is a bit neurotic, but why this means is that whenever Ukraine is more threatened, the West is scared of losing something, so support is massively increased. Ukraine knows this and plays this too.
Now we come to atrition. I suspect that casualties (not only dead, but the real meaning of casualities) on both sides are much fewer than people think.
Probably 80,000 on Ukraine and 130,000 for Russia. Divided each by 3 for deaths.
You can disagree or even switch the ratios, but the fact that Russia ran out of troops while Ukraine did not, does suggest Ukraine is not suffering like Russia. I have other reasons for believing this, but they are long and technical and won't do anything to enlighten you.
But to address the Russian hope, I know Russia fired a lot of artillery, but possibly missing by 200 metres either side or 200m length-ways either side, means that the dumb munition, that Russia fires a lot of, will need to be fired 160,000 times to have a chance of hitting someone in a very basic trench. Dumb munitions are suppression fire, not for killing.
And I have been optimistic about Russian accuracy, motivation and intelligence led fires in this calculation. Evermind the fact that Ukrainians sit in trenches that are not basic.
Essentially Russia could fire a million rounds of ammunition, in the way it has, and quite possibly kill not a single Ukrainian. No wonder they're running out.
Anyway, Ukraine will outlast Russia, so yes they are winning in this respect. Ukraine would still be fighting in 5 years if Russia could continue that long, but obviously it won't. Forget the hysteria in their reporting and their Twitter personalities. Were Russia to withdraw tomorrow, 80% of those supporting the war would be decalring it a great victory and Putin a genius and the West defeated, and the other 20% would be in prison. You know it is true.
As for either side winning the war by forcing the other to essentially surrender, Ukraine is in a far better position here too.
Russia took 6 months to take Soledar. A town of 10,000, not a city of 4,000,000. Kyiv also can't be encircled due to the waterways. Anyone who says Russia has any sort of ability to do so is completely nuts.
However, for Ukraine to take Crime, they need only advance to Melitopol. Or thereabouts. Cutting Crimea off to Russian shipping is easy. Destroying the Kerch bridge from Melitopol is easy. Russia would have to withdraw from Crimea and Putin would either be gone or would be desperate for peace. The heavy soils continue south to Melitopol and haven't frozen this year. The ground is open and an advancing force would need to overcome the mud, or wait until it warms up. At that point they will unleash whatever technological surprises the US military industrial complex has given them. By August, Crimea will be Ukrainian again.
Soledar is irrelevant. Russia could take a thousand more Soledars and be no closer to winning the war. Of course, at this rate, that would take them 3000 years. Furthermore, the Russian strategic ill-discipline in focussing on non-war defining targets is not an optimistic sign for them. Just as them running out of shells by firing them randomly all over fields is not optimistic for them. They know there is no victory for them, so they prioritise showboating and pursuing inter-factional warfare. This is rational, for each individual, given their situation, but does not help the overall effort
And if you want to understand Soledar, this huge Russian victory, if taking an emptied bombed out near-village is a huge victory, get that it resulted in a sweep of top of the line tanks being sent to Ukraine for the first time. Thereby breaking yet another dam for better weapons for Ukraine. In other words, Ukraine is much stronger than before Soledar and the Russian army is just yet more exhausted.
Russia is a medium-sized economy that has no serious industry beyond resource extraction and some adjacent processing. It is also diplomatically isolated, with it being forced to boast of how countries remain neutral to it, like China. China has given zero aid to Russia, though some to Ukraine. If you're boasting of a country giving you nice words and the country you invaded actual aid, it is because you have nothing good to boast about.
And Russia is facing an extremely united developed world (not West), but literally all developed countries. Yes, some of those countries are barely committed, but whenever Ukraine looks like it is suffering, they commit more, and more, and more. Russia is therefore in an impossible position. It is in a Chinese finger trap and is currently trying to pull itself into shape, but is pulling itself apart. I doubt their government will survive this year.
Ukraine may fail to advance to Melitopol, thereby taking Crimea, though I doubt it. Russia may advance enough to threaten Kramatorsk by 2024, though I doubt it. But who in Russia is going to be supporting Putin in the elections that year? What will be his campaign promise? If he was terrified of the last mobilisation, so he did it too late, and scares of this one, so already getting too late, how will he feel about another 4 more?
And ask yourself, don't you just wish Putin had never decided to invade Ukraine and you had been able to remain as your bizarre ignorant fantasy of a competent Russia, standing up for all of the things it has nothing to do with, but they sold you?Replies: @BB753
1. Victory in war requires the loser to agree.
2. Victory is also defined as the achievement of political goals.
Therefore to force Ukraine to agree to Russia’s demands, Russia either needs to take Kyiv, or outlast Ukraine.
Or to force Russia to agree to Ukrainian demands, Ukraine needs to take Crimea or outlast Russia.
Outlasting is the worst option for both, as it is determined by 4 factors: motivation, manpower, equipment and the attritional balance.
However, in this area, Ukraine will win. Ukrainians are more motivated in Ukraine, which also means that their manpower is greater. Ukraine may be smaller than Russia, but obviously there are more Ukrainians willing to fight and die for Ukraine than Russians who will fight and die for Ukraine. You might disagree, but even people like Karlin notice that Ukrainian mobilisation is de facto voluntary. Russian is not.
Equipment is also on Ukraine’s side. The US will be perfectly bipartisanly happy to spend a small fraction of its defence budget helping Ukraine for decades. The UK is donating better tanks than Russia has. And Poland will likely be end up giving their entire set of tanks and buying more. Western support is a bit neurotic, but why this means is that whenever Ukraine is more threatened, the West is scared of losing something, so support is massively increased. Ukraine knows this and plays this too.
Now we come to atrition. I suspect that casualties (not only dead, but the real meaning of casualities) on both sides are much fewer than people think.
Probably 80,000 on Ukraine and 130,000 for Russia. Divided each by 3 for deaths.
You can disagree or even switch the ratios, but the fact that Russia ran out of troops while Ukraine did not, does suggest Ukraine is not suffering like Russia. I have other reasons for believing this, but they are long and technical and won’t do anything to enlighten you.
But to address the Russian hope, I know Russia fired a lot of artillery, but possibly missing by 200 metres either side or 200m length-ways either side, means that the dumb munition, that Russia fires a lot of, will need to be fired 160,000 times to have a chance of hitting someone in a very basic trench. Dumb munitions are suppression fire, not for killing.
And I have been optimistic about Russian accuracy, motivation and intelligence led fires in this calculation. Evermind the fact that Ukrainians sit in trenches that are not basic.
Essentially Russia could fire a million rounds of ammunition, in the way it has, and quite possibly kill not a single Ukrainian. No wonder they’re running out.
Anyway, Ukraine will outlast Russia, so yes they are winning in this respect. Ukraine would still be fighting in 5 years if Russia could continue that long, but obviously it won’t. Forget the hysteria in their reporting and their Twitter personalities. Were Russia to withdraw tomorrow, 80% of those supporting the war would be decalring it a great victory and Putin a genius and the West defeated, and the other 20% would be in prison. You know it is true.
As for either side winning the war by forcing the other to essentially surrender, Ukraine is in a far better position here too.
Russia took 6 months to take Soledar. A town of 10,000, not a city of 4,000,000. Kyiv also can’t be encircled due to the waterways. Anyone who says Russia has any sort of ability to do so is completely nuts.
However, for Ukraine to take Crime, they need only advance to Melitopol. Or thereabouts. Cutting Crimea off to Russian shipping is easy. Destroying the Kerch bridge from Melitopol is easy. Russia would have to withdraw from Crimea and Putin would either be gone or would be desperate for peace. The heavy soils continue south to Melitopol and haven’t frozen this year. The ground is open and an advancing force would need to overcome the mud, or wait until it warms up. At that point they will unleash whatever technological surprises the US military industrial complex has given them. By August, Crimea will be Ukrainian again.
Soledar is irrelevant. Russia could take a thousand more Soledars and be no closer to winning the war. Of course, at this rate, that would take them 3000 years. Furthermore, the Russian strategic ill-discipline in focussing on non-war defining targets is not an optimistic sign for them. Just as them running out of shells by firing them randomly all over fields is not optimistic for them. They know there is no victory for them, so they prioritise showboating and pursuing inter-factional warfare. This is rational, for each individual, given their situation, but does not help the overall effort
And if you want to understand Soledar, this huge Russian victory, if taking an emptied bombed out near-village is a huge victory, get that it resulted in a sweep of top of the line tanks being sent to Ukraine for the first time. Thereby breaking yet another dam for better weapons for Ukraine. In other words, Ukraine is much stronger than before Soledar and the Russian army is just yet more exhausted.
Russia is a medium-sized economy that has no serious industry beyond resource extraction and some adjacent processing. It is also diplomatically isolated, with it being forced to boast of how countries remain neutral to it, like China. China has given zero aid to Russia, though some to Ukraine. If you’re boasting of a country giving you nice words and the country you invaded actual aid, it is because you have nothing good to boast about.
And Russia is facing an extremely united developed world (not West), but literally all developed countries. Yes, some of those countries are barely committed, but whenever Ukraine looks like it is suffering, they commit more, and more, and more. Russia is therefore in an impossible position. It is in a Chinese finger trap and is currently trying to pull itself into shape, but is pulling itself apart. I doubt their government will survive this year.
Ukraine may fail to advance to Melitopol, thereby taking Crimea, though I doubt it. Russia may advance enough to threaten Kramatorsk by 2024, though I doubt it. But who in Russia is going to be supporting Putin in the elections that year? What will be his campaign promise? If he was terrified of the last mobilisation, so he did it too late, and scares of this one, so already getting too late, how will he feel about another 4 more?
And ask yourself, don’t you just wish Putin had never decided to invade Ukraine and you had been able to remain as your bizarre ignorant fantasy of a competent Russia, standing up for all of the things it has nothing to do with, but they sold you?
Yeah, the South will rise again, lol!"Therefore to force Ukraine to agree to Russia’s demands, Russia either needs to take Kyiv, or outlast Ukraine." A huge fallacy. You don't need to storm the capital to defeat an enemy. You just have to incapacitate its fighting forces and nullify any capacity to fight on. " Equipment is also on Ukraine’s side."
Wrong, Russia's military industrial complex exceeds that of the entire West."Soledar is irrelevant"As a town, for sure, and so is Bakhmut. The importance of these places is strategic and military. That's where the Ukrainians built their Maginot line, now facetiously called "Zelensky line". Miles of trenches, bunkers, cfield mines and artillery units. In order to oust the Ukrainians from the Donbass, and cross that line North, Russians needed to destroy this last line of defence without losing an excess of equipment and soldiers. They've been fighting a long battle of attrition which is paying off, while Kiev and its Western overlords were desperate enough to throw everything at the Russians, losing entire brigades in the futile process of stalling the enemy. It made for good PR long enough to have Zelensky travel go Washington dressed up in military fatigues and squeeze more billions out of US taxpayers."Probably 80,000 on Ukraine and 130,000 for Russia. Divided each by 3 for deaths."B.S.! Ursula van der Leyen let it slip months ago that Ukraine had lost over 100,000 soldiers. And that's not counting the injured, the M. I. A., etc."Russia is a medium-sized economy that has no serious industry beyond resource extraction and some adjacent processing."
Again, more lies and propaganda. The Russian economy is actually growing, with the sanctions having had little effect as there are other markets available to Rusian products. " And Russia is facing an extremely united developed world (not West), but literally all developed countries." Does BRICS sound familiar? China? Russia doesn't need the West, whose economy is terminaly ill.
Aa for the US, once the petrodollar is no longer the resource currency, the Fed won't be able to print dollars out of thin air. Expect not a recession but a depression the like hasn't seen before.
I can understand why the West is fighting to the last Ukrainian to preserve a dying system.
Now, whether out of the ashes of a NATO debacle a new multipolar world will emerge or America and the West were being played in a 3D chess game by the ueberglobalists to usher in a Chinese interregnum before a One World Government, remains to be seen.
2. Victory is also defined as the achievement of political goals.
Therefore to force Ukraine to agree to Russia's demands, Russia either needs to take Kyiv, or outlast Ukraine.
Or to force Russia to agree to Ukrainian demands, Ukraine needs to take Crimea or outlast Russia.
Outlasting is the worst option for both, as it is determined by 4 factors: motivation, manpower, equipment and the attritional balance.
However, in this area, Ukraine will win. Ukrainians are more motivated in Ukraine, which also means that their manpower is greater. Ukraine may be smaller than Russia, but obviously there are more Ukrainians willing to fight and die for Ukraine than Russians who will fight and die for Ukraine. You might disagree, but even people like Karlin notice that Ukrainian mobilisation is de facto voluntary. Russian is not.
Equipment is also on Ukraine's side. The US will be perfectly bipartisanly happy to spend a small fraction of its defence budget helping Ukraine for decades. The UK is donating better tanks than Russia has. And Poland will likely be end up giving their entire set of tanks and buying more. Western support is a bit neurotic, but why this means is that whenever Ukraine is more threatened, the West is scared of losing something, so support is massively increased. Ukraine knows this and plays this too.
Now we come to atrition. I suspect that casualties (not only dead, but the real meaning of casualities) on both sides are much fewer than people think.
Probably 80,000 on Ukraine and 130,000 for Russia. Divided each by 3 for deaths.
You can disagree or even switch the ratios, but the fact that Russia ran out of troops while Ukraine did not, does suggest Ukraine is not suffering like Russia. I have other reasons for believing this, but they are long and technical and won't do anything to enlighten you.
But to address the Russian hope, I know Russia fired a lot of artillery, but possibly missing by 200 metres either side or 200m length-ways either side, means that the dumb munition, that Russia fires a lot of, will need to be fired 160,000 times to have a chance of hitting someone in a very basic trench. Dumb munitions are suppression fire, not for killing.
And I have been optimistic about Russian accuracy, motivation and intelligence led fires in this calculation. Evermind the fact that Ukrainians sit in trenches that are not basic.
Essentially Russia could fire a million rounds of ammunition, in the way it has, and quite possibly kill not a single Ukrainian. No wonder they're running out.
Anyway, Ukraine will outlast Russia, so yes they are winning in this respect. Ukraine would still be fighting in 5 years if Russia could continue that long, but obviously it won't. Forget the hysteria in their reporting and their Twitter personalities. Were Russia to withdraw tomorrow, 80% of those supporting the war would be decalring it a great victory and Putin a genius and the West defeated, and the other 20% would be in prison. You know it is true.
As for either side winning the war by forcing the other to essentially surrender, Ukraine is in a far better position here too.
Russia took 6 months to take Soledar. A town of 10,000, not a city of 4,000,000. Kyiv also can't be encircled due to the waterways. Anyone who says Russia has any sort of ability to do so is completely nuts.
However, for Ukraine to take Crime, they need only advance to Melitopol. Or thereabouts. Cutting Crimea off to Russian shipping is easy. Destroying the Kerch bridge from Melitopol is easy. Russia would have to withdraw from Crimea and Putin would either be gone or would be desperate for peace. The heavy soils continue south to Melitopol and haven't frozen this year. The ground is open and an advancing force would need to overcome the mud, or wait until it warms up. At that point they will unleash whatever technological surprises the US military industrial complex has given them. By August, Crimea will be Ukrainian again.
Soledar is irrelevant. Russia could take a thousand more Soledars and be no closer to winning the war. Of course, at this rate, that would take them 3000 years. Furthermore, the Russian strategic ill-discipline in focussing on non-war defining targets is not an optimistic sign for them. Just as them running out of shells by firing them randomly all over fields is not optimistic for them. They know there is no victory for them, so they prioritise showboating and pursuing inter-factional warfare. This is rational, for each individual, given their situation, but does not help the overall effort
And if you want to understand Soledar, this huge Russian victory, if taking an emptied bombed out near-village is a huge victory, get that it resulted in a sweep of top of the line tanks being sent to Ukraine for the first time. Thereby breaking yet another dam for better weapons for Ukraine. In other words, Ukraine is much stronger than before Soledar and the Russian army is just yet more exhausted.
Russia is a medium-sized economy that has no serious industry beyond resource extraction and some adjacent processing. It is also diplomatically isolated, with it being forced to boast of how countries remain neutral to it, like China. China has given zero aid to Russia, though some to Ukraine. If you're boasting of a country giving you nice words and the country you invaded actual aid, it is because you have nothing good to boast about.
And Russia is facing an extremely united developed world (not West), but literally all developed countries. Yes, some of those countries are barely committed, but whenever Ukraine looks like it is suffering, they commit more, and more, and more. Russia is therefore in an impossible position. It is in a Chinese finger trap and is currently trying to pull itself into shape, but is pulling itself apart. I doubt their government will survive this year.
Ukraine may fail to advance to Melitopol, thereby taking Crimea, though I doubt it. Russia may advance enough to threaten Kramatorsk by 2024, though I doubt it. But who in Russia is going to be supporting Putin in the elections that year? What will be his campaign promise? If he was terrified of the last mobilisation, so he did it too late, and scares of this one, so already getting too late, how will he feel about another 4 more?
And ask yourself, don't you just wish Putin had never decided to invade Ukraine and you had been able to remain as your bizarre ignorant fantasy of a competent Russia, standing up for all of the things it has nothing to do with, but they sold you?Replies: @BB753
” Victory in war requires the loser to agree.”
Yeah, the South will rise again, lol!
“Therefore to force Ukraine to agree to Russia’s demands, Russia either needs to take Kyiv, or outlast Ukraine.”
A huge fallacy. You don’t need to storm the capital to defeat an enemy. You just have to incapacitate its fighting forces and nullify any capacity to fight on.
” Equipment is also on Ukraine’s side.”
Wrong, Russia’s military industrial complex exceeds that of the entire West.
“Soledar is irrelevant”
As a town, for sure, and so is Bakhmut. The importance of these places is strategic and military. That’s where the Ukrainians built their Maginot line, now facetiously called “Zelensky line”. Miles of trenches, bunkers, cfield mines and artillery units. In order to oust the Ukrainians from the Donbass, and cross that line North, Russians needed to destroy this last line of defence without losing an excess of equipment and soldiers. They’ve been fighting a long battle of attrition which is paying off, while Kiev and its Western overlords were desperate enough to throw everything at the Russians, losing entire brigades in the futile process of stalling the enemy. It made for good PR long enough to have Zelensky travel go Washington dressed up in military fatigues and squeeze more billions out of US taxpayers.
“Probably 80,000 on Ukraine and 130,000 for Russia. Divided each by 3 for deaths.”
B.S.! Ursula van der Leyen let it slip months ago that Ukraine had lost over 100,000 soldiers. And that’s not counting the injured, the M. I. A., etc.
“Russia is a medium-sized economy that has no serious industry beyond resource extraction and some adjacent processing.”
Again, more lies and propaganda. The Russian economy is actually growing, with the sanctions having had little effect as there are other markets available to Rusian products.
” And Russia is facing an extremely united developed world (not West), but literally all developed countries.”
Does BRICS sound familiar? China? Russia doesn’t need the West, whose economy is terminaly ill.
Aa for the US, once the petrodollar is no longer the resource currency, the Fed won’t be able to print dollars out of thin air. Expect not a recession but a depression the like hasn’t seen before.
I can understand why the West is fighting to the last Ukrainian to preserve a dying system.
Now, whether out of the ashes of a NATO debacle a new multipolar world will emerge or America and the West were being played in a 3D chess game by the ueberglobalists to usher in a Chinese interregnum before a One World Government, remains to be seen.
I ascertain an organisation’s value through a simple formula: the power of the individual members multiplied by what real sacrifices they will make for each other.
In the case of BRICS, this means quite a bit is multiplied by zero and therefore equals zero.
The organisation, if you can call it that, is meaningless.
Be honest: how long have you been predicting some sort of collapse for?
I hope you’ll excuse me for believing that it says more about you, than it does about the world.
I also hope you’re not stupid enough to put your money where your mouth is, for your sake.
The West isn’t fighting and Putin is the one responsible for the killing of Ukrainians. This isn’t Jussie Smollett power hour, We can both agree that the person who ordered the invasion takes the blame, not whatever particular term you use instead of “white supremacy” to deflect it.
Lee surrendered.
You misunderstand what I wrote. I was being specific to this war. I also included attrition as a possible Russian route to victory, but they’ll need to kill around 2 million Ukrainian soldiers, which will likely come at a cost of more than 2 million Russians, so 4 million+ dead Slavs overall, not including civilians. I suggest you don’t salivate over this. It will do bad things to your soul.
This is an insane claim.
She mispoke. And if what she said is true, then this would exceed the casualty rate in WW1 per month by a very long way indeed, which is an extraordinary claim for a war which has seen Ukraine advance since week 3. Therefore she mispoke. But interesting what your standard of evidence is.
Not according even to official Russian statistics.
I have seen versions of this narrative written by all of you clowns ever since the war began, and every time they turned out to be completely wrong. The thing is that you’re not even a broken clock, but some deluded scribbles on a wall that thinks you’re a clock. You’ll turn out to be right absolutely never. And the most disappointing thing is that surely you should have learned this in the last 11 months? But no, just double down because you can’t admit you were wrong. Comical, sad, bizarre, all at once.
Mormons and amish etc do productive labour. Mormons serve in the military. Ultra orthodox Jews in America and Israel are leeches who take far more from the state then they give and refuse to perform military service. If Israel became majority haredi it would cease to exist.
‘Torah study is challenging for the brain in a Talmudic lawyering sort of way, so don’t think these are uneducated Hillbillies.’
Ultra orthodox Jews are highly inbred morons who disavow actual education in favour of studying the talmud. Thier I.Q is very low.