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NYT: Maybe It Wasn't the Ferguson Effect That Got All Those People Murdered, It Was, uh ... Climate Change!
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From the NYT Upshot page:

A Rise in Murder? Let’s Talk About the Weather

The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities.

By Jeff Asher
Sept. 21, 2018

The national murder rate reached a modern low in 2014, capping a quarter-century decline. Then it rose across the United States in 2015 and 2016. Why gun violence increased in those two years remains somewhat of a mystery, and no single factor is likely to explain it, but there is one potential contributor that is rarely talked about: weather.

Temperatures across the country were higher on average in those two years than they were in 2014. The relationship between temperature and crime has been discussed for decades. Fewer people are murdered in America during colder months than during warmer ones.

In the case of 2015 and 2016, it may be a small part of the story, but the broader correlation of weather and crime merits more research. …

The effect of warmer weather on rising gun violence in 2015 and 2016 in any individual city might have been small, but all told across the nation, it might have been significant. If you look at national murder data from 2000 to 2016 and compare it with the average annual temperature across the United States per year, you could predict a national rise or fall in murder using just the average annual temperature in 11 of 16 years.

… Warmer weather can’t really explain big increases in murder in Chicago or Baltimore in 2015 and 2016 — or in Orlando, where the Pulse nightclub mass shooting took place.

The F.B.I. will release its Uniform Crime Report data for 2017 on Monday, and indications are that murder will have fallen slightly.

In my Taki’s column back on January 10, 2018, I added up from local newspaper reports the 2017 homicide toll in the 50 biggest cities and came up with a 2% drop vs. 2016.

This would match a slight drop in the national average annual temperature last year, although it’s not clear what role, if any, weather might have played.

Gun violence in Chicago has also fallen over the last year and a half, with declines for 16 straight months. Murder is down 20 percent so far this year in the city. But the weekend of violence Aug. 3 through 5 — when at least 74 people were shot and 12 were killed — was a reminder of how grim it can get in Chicago during the summer. That suggests the need for more research and better data on shootings in American cities to understand how weather affects gun violence.

Uh, sure, but how about looking squarely at the Ferguson Effect?

 
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  1. Anon[193] • Disclaimer says:

    At this point they are just playing to an ever shrinking choir. Fewer and fewer people believe this nonsense with every passing day.

    • Replies: @dvorak
  2. Anon[323] • Disclaimer says:

    Did global warming hit Detroit in the 70s?

    • Replies: @pyrrhus
    , @Bubba
    , @Reg Cæsar
  3. Anon[323] • Disclaimer says:

    We can rationalize the KKK with the weather.

    All that heat in the South just made whites go crazy.

    Blame the weather.

  4. Now that we have air conditioning, wouldn’t excessive heat lead people indoors, thus isolating them from others?

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
  5. TGGP says: • Website

    The article doesn’t seem so bad, acknowledging that it’s only contributing a small part to the variation (and thus not actually denying the Ferguson effect). It’s also been well known for a long time that when the weather is better, people spend more time outside and crime goes up. So perhaps the time to really be afraid of global warming is when it causes the crime rate to go down.

  6. Endorsing the Ferguson Effect, Big Media would reveal itself as unindicted accessory in murders of all those black folk.

  7. - Guns kill people!

    - Capitalism kills people!

    - Inequality kills people!

    - And now, hot air kills people!

    Apparently, only thugs are not guilty of killing people according to their handbook.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Reg Cæsar
  8. Jonah says:

    OT but incredible:

    SNL adds new cast member. Stale pale male replaced by black woman named Ego.

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/live-feed/saturday-night-live-adds-ego-nwodim-season-44-cast-1146064?__twitter_impression=true

    Slaaaay, qweeeen!

    Here she is as Maya Angelou in an attempt at… comedy, I guess?

    In a world where guys playing with NERF gear garner tens of millions of views, Lorne Michaels has plucked Sasheer Zamata Sr. off the YouTube scrap heap on the strength of literally thousands of views.

    (Relax. We are all living inside an iSteve Simulation.)

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Anonymous
  9. anon[101] • Disclaimer says:

    The Ferguson effect is as close to proven as any social phenomenon. The refusal to acknowledge this is evidence that facts don’t much matter.

    What are they so afraid of?

    • Replies: @Forbes
    , @Mr. Rational
    , @anon
  10. pyrrhus says:
    @Anon

    The 1970s having been the coldest decade since the Little Ice Age in the northern Midwest….That was caused by too many white people reflecting sunshine back into space.

  11. Bubba says:
    @Anon

    Yes. Detroilet always celebrated Halloween in the 70′s with lots of man-made carbon emissions and contributed heavily to the so-called “Man Made Global Warming.” It was always fossil fuels used from older, stately, ornate wood homes left behind in the hasty white flight rush retreat to safety in the suburbs. However some homes were still occupied by older whites who didn’t escape and died in the infernos. It is largely believed to be a prehistoric-like ritual exclusive to the species Africanas-Americanus (most likely due to genetic propensities, but that is too controversial to discuss) that would indiscriminately burn the houses to drive out all the evil white spirits plaguing their peaceful Wakanda.

  12. @Anon

    Did global warming hit Detroit in the 70s?

    Oh, long before that…

  13. “It’s not the heat, it’s the inhumanity.” – Neil Peart

    (I confess I REALLY wish I’d written that first.)

  14. D. K. says:

    ***

    The effect of warmer weather on rising gun violence in 2015 and 2016 in any individual city might have been small, but all told across the nation, it might have been significant. If you look at national murder data from 2000 to 2016 and compare it with the average annual temperature across the United States per year, you could predict a national rise or fall in murder using just the average annual temperature in 11 of 16 years.

    ***

    “I flipped a coin, every Fourth of July from 2001 through 2016, and eleven of those sixteen times it came up heads. Climate change!”

    • Replies: @Forbes
    , @Joe Stalin
  15. anon[133] • Disclaimer says:

    Umm… doesn’t this hypothesis invalidate global warming?

    Look at these graphs, starting around 1990: per NASA, the earth gets warmer, while, per the FBI, homicides go down.

    Didn’t Steve Pinker write a whole book about how the human race has been getting less violent for centuries?

    If the earth has been consistently warming since the 1850′s, shouldn’t Pinker’s crime trend have been arrested? (Heh.)

    • Replies: @niteranger
  16. anon[130] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jonah

    Saturday Night Live?

    • Replies: @tyrone
  17. Neoconned says:

    Steve in NOLA it’s been common knowledge for a century plus that the higher the winter temps….higher the mainly thug NOLA murder rate…..

    During high temp weekends many suburbians are known to stay home rather than come into the city for a party where you are more likely to be shot near the French Quarter

  18. Climate Change: Is there anything it can’t be blamed for?

  19. So how do we do this? Do we literally chain and stake climate researchers out in various parts of US communities and record how many are murdered at various times of the year, recording the weather conditions along the way? This would naturally need to be a sampling with replacement exercise.

  20. Bill B. says:

    Naa. You’ve all missed the point. Black gangbangers must be sent to British public schools (i.e. high priced private schools) where they can learn to overcome their renowned shyness and lack of self-esteem.

    David also noticed how confident his new contemporaries were.

    ‘They had an air of audacity which was completely alien to me,’ says David. ‘In a very positive way, they acted as if they deserved the best education and had the expectation of a good life ahead.

    ‘Even the younger boys had a very strong confidence in who they were. Seeing them speak to adults, without any insubordination, was something that really struck me and was quite powerful. This sense of entitlement, of course, has its pros and cons.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6194843/Two-friends-London-East-End-school-different-lives.html

  21. Trevor H. says:

    Why gun violence increased in those two years remains somewhat of a mystery, and no single factor is likely to explain it

    Nonsense. Crime rose because criminals (unlike everyone else) could tell that Donald Trump was going to be elected president and started warming up early Warming up, get it?

  22. @Reg Cæsar

    In Chicago, there is a correlation between higher temperatures and shootings. Look at the data at heyjackass.com, and Second City Blog has noted the trend as well.

    Most of the old buildings in Chicago where the blacks live have no air conditioning. Higher temperatures drive people out of their homes to sit on stoops or stand on street corners. I assume you can imagine what develops from there.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @gunner29
    , @anon
  23. Anonymous[527] • Disclaimer says:

    It’s definitely the heat ‘cuz you take old wealthy folks from NYC where crime is low and dump them in hot places like Del Boca Vista and Malibu and can just sit back and watch the crime sprees unfurl.

  24. Anonymous[527] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jonah

    SNL has a rep for screwing up and going through periods where viewership declines and people think it’s utter garbage. Looks like it’s time to short sell SNL again.

  25. Arclight says:

    It is true that the murder rate rises in the warmer months of the year, but I would guess that is a product of more people being out of the house and congregating outside, so there are more opportunities for disputes to spring up between groups of people as well as it being easier to actually find someone you are looking to dust.

    Of course, the question of why some people are substantially more likely to commit violence regardless of the weather compared to other people must not be considered.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  26. TheJester says:

    A more credible approach is understanding that empowering minorities or otherwise sacralizing them as above the law and free of the social constraints that govern human relations in the rest of society is a prescription for anarchy.

    The point of the NYT’s article, it seems, is to blame increasing black-on-black violence on Global Warming. This is a politically correct “twofer”.

    1. If the sudden increase in black-on-black violence is attributable to Global Warming, then it’s the white man’s fault that blacks are killing blacks in record numbers because whites are responsible for Global Warming. If true, a bizarre short-term solution: Ensure as national policy that every black residence in the United States has a functioning air conditioner to ward off the summer heat. This follows from the premise that Global Warming causes black violence. Install air conditioners and the problem goes away. Right?

    2. If an increase in violence can be statistically attributed to Global Warming, then this is more evidence of the need to reverse Global Warming before the violence now confined to black ghettos escapes to the population at large — “Clock Work Orange”. This is a throw away on the part of the Global Warming community. Reverse Global Warming now or you will live in a dystopia of violence and social decay. It’s already started!

    The more credible approach in focusing on the Ferguson Effect as opposed to Global Warming to explain the increase in black violence is the simple sociological observation regarding what happens when a demographic already disposed to violence begins to feel empowered; that is, when they feel that the social power differential is moving in their favor, i.e. Zimbabwe, South Africa, Black Lives Matter, the phenomenon of kneeling for the National Anthem, increases in black-on-white violence, increases in black-on-black violence in Chicago, Baltimore, etc. … they are all related.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
  27. Anonymous[527] • Disclaimer says:
    @ThirdWorldSteveReader

    Leftist flails around into all manner of foolish explanations (Occam’s butter knife in iSteve parlance) because they reject simple realities which are elephants in the room even when (or perhaps it’s especially when) they are directly in front of their faces. It’s like, “Ignoring the man in the blue coat who I saw stab the girl in front of me, how can I explain why this girl is laying on the ground in a pool of blood? Maybe she stabbed herself? No one else is around. But why would she do that? Because young women are oppressed! But she has no knife. So maybe she didn’t get stabbed. Maybe the blood is from delivering a baby. But where is the baby? No, she has a serious wound. But what else could have caused this wound? We need to spend a lot of money and effort to get to the bottom of this but it damn well can’t be my money because I need it so it’ll have to be everyone else’s money.”

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  28. Aurora Borealis? At this time of day, at this time of year, localized entirely to Chicago, St. Louis and Baltimore ?

    Yes.

    May I see it?

    No.

    • Disagree: Lowe
    • Replies: @Lowe
  29. Jake says:

    The average Liberal would prefer to talk about how the man in the moon made of green cheese caused the Numinous Negroes to do seemingly bad things than to acknowledge the possibility of the truth.

  30. Corvinus says:

    “Uh, sure, but how about looking squarely at the Ferguson Effect?”

    The Ferguson Effect has been called into question. Is it legitimate? To what extent? Or is it simply Alt Right fodder? Perhaps there is a story to NOTICE the methodologies of these studies and delve deeper into their findings.

    “A February 2016 University of Colorado Boulder study looked at crime statistics from 81 U.S. cities and found no evidence of a Ferguson effect with respect to overall, violent, or property crime, but did identify an increase in robbery rates after the shooting of Michael Brown (while these rates had been decreasing before this shooting).”

    “A March 2016 study by Johns Hopkins University researchers Stephen L. Morgan and Joel Pally found that after Brown was shot, rates of many types of crimes in Baltimore decreased relative to what had been expected, while others (such as robbery and burglary) remained unchanged.”

    “Another 2016 study, led by Edward Maguire of Arizona State University, found no evidence of a “Ferguson effect” with regard to the number of police officers killed in the line of duty in the United States between August 2014 and March 2016.”

    “Additionally, a 2017 study led by Bradley Campbell of the University of Louisville, showed no significant increase or decrease in the number of citizens fatally shot by police after the events in Ferguson, MO in August 2014.”

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004723521730171X?via%3Dihub

  31. In a grad school stats class I had a professor who liked to use the example of ice cream sales being correlated with homicides as an example or correlation not being causation. I get the idea of a long hot summer affecting crime causing people to go outside and get away from the heat, but there would need to be a way of testing if there’s air conditioning. Maybe cities with older housing stock would be less likely to have air conditioning. That’s easy to measure with Census data. Did murder rates go up faster in Philadelphia, Providence, and Boston compared with sunbelt cities like Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix where virtually all houses have air conditioning?

    Ferguson Effect seems more likely, but it would be fun to use median age of housing in a model to see what happens.

  32. Forbes says:
    @anon

    Facts inconvenient to The Narrative will be ignored.

  33. Forbes says:
    @D. K.

    The stock market-Super Bowl effect has a pretty good correlation, too. And is just as statistically rigorous. Not.

    As Twain said, if you don’t read the newspaper you’re merely uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you’re misinformed.

  34. dvorak says:
    @Anon

    Fewer and fewer people believe this nonsense with every passing day.

    It still works if those few are backed up by orc hordes.

  35. D. K. says:
    @Corvinus

    A la last month, none of your citations even addresses the posited Ferguson Effect: an increase in murders, in the wake of the justified killing of violent criminal Michael Brown, and the orchestrated riots that followed it, due to police disengagement from proactive police enforcement in mostly Black communities, and especially in those specifically targeted by George Soros’ Black Lives Matter front organization, and/or by Barack Obama’s Department of Justice, under the direction of Black activist Eric Holder.

    As for your repeated citation of the inapposite study by Edward McGuire, inter alia, I will simply repost the rhetorical question that I posed to you, just over a month ago:

    ***

    Gee, I wonder why he chose a cut-off date of March 31 . . .

    https://nypost.com/2016/12/11/2016-was-a-deadly-year-for-cops-and-blm-may-be-to-blame/

    ***

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  36. “Gun violence in Chicago has also fallen over the last year and a half, with declines for 16 straight months. Murder is down 20 percent so far this year in the city”

    Okay here’s my take on the declining murder rate in Chicago. The number of Africans in the city has decreased and is decreasing every year. These Africans are being exported to the outlying areas as far away as Wisconsin and Iowa. Itz hard to find accurate census data but if you look at public school enrollment you will find dramatic decreases in the number of African students. For example in 1998 roughly 53% of public school students were African versus 2017 where the population dropped down to 37% while at the same time total public enrollment dropped around 40 thousand. To study African crime we need to start looking at the outlying areas and not just the city.

    Read the following about “Memphis Murder Mystery”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/07/american-murder-mystery/306872/

    “Earlier this year, Betts presented her findings to city leaders, including Robert Lipscomb, the head of the Memphis Housing Authority. From what Lipscomb said to me, he’s still not moved. “You’ve already marginalized people and told them they have to move out,” he told me irritably, just as he’s told Betts. “Now you’re saying they moved somewhere else and created all these problems? “

  37. Pat Boyle says:

    The reason every well read and intelligent person is always saying – “Correlation isn’t necessarily causation” – is just for this reason. Which way does the arrow of causation point?

    Does warm weather cause crime? Or does crime cause warm weather? After all we know that a rain dance brings rain. Don’t we?

  38. Mr. Anon says:

    The “Law and Order” episode writes itself. Those selfless, honest prosecutors who defend the people and state of New York indict Chevron, the Murray Energy Corporation, and the Koch Brothers for multiple homicide, while Jerry Orbach cracks wise over a dead vic “Hot enough for ya’?”

    Dun Dun.

  39. Mr. Anon says:

    I was recently talking to some young, 20-something women and remarking on the heat of an Indian Summer. One of them said something about “climate change”. Thanks to “climate change” you can’t even talk about the weather without it being political.

  40. Another excuse for African dysfunction. And it’s going to get worse: the ritual sacrifice chambers to Baal are now active 24/7 in the effort to get empty vessel Kamala Harris elected emperor in 2020. Kamala Harris’ mother is southeast Asian Indian. The League of Paranoids has been mocked as of late, but we have never been wrong. Paranoia is an acute form of perception. The southeast Asian Indian stalking horse is real; the war against whitey will only intensify.

  41. Traveling in CONUS and talking with friends and acquaintances from Canada west to upper Midwest US to Texas and on to Florida, the differences between my Atlanta experiences and theirs re: racial reality is astonishing. Many of them just simply have no idea; it’s as if they have had impressions and beliefs implanted in their subconscious.

    Especially those from the West and and the NE; it’s as if we were from two different worlds. Even many from Texas, having been awakened somewhat by their invasion from below, will impart that every black person they meet carries within them a potential Morgan Freeman, just waiting to be unleashed.

    We took our kids through New England for a late summer vacation. The relative calm of the urban areas and the beauty and neatness of even the most remote countryside was marked. To what could much of this be attributed? Why did we feel confident and unhurried in Bangor, Acadia, Portland, Bar Harbor and even most of Boston? I’m letting these observations marinate in my kids memories, and will soon follow up to question what they thought made the difference.

    Television and infotainment continues to do their work on impressionable youth and vacuous adults; to dissent from their version of reality is the quite dangerous. And I find an increasing tendency towards defensive silence among peers here in GA, even among those unquestionably woke to reality. It’s almost eerie, here in the suburbs, paying for relatively huge disparities in mortgages, taxes, fees, and travel costs just to be in vibrancy-free enclaves, while no one feels capable of acknowledging the costs or the causes thereof. Where does this end?

  42. @D. K.

    The City of Chicago used to have a July 4 “Independence Day” fireworks display on the lakefront Downtown. Lots of white suburbanites showed up to watch.

    And then one year Dah Mayor decided that there was (allegedly) better things to spend money on than celebrating our political separation from England.

    A lot of people believe that Blacks were also going Downtown to create mayhem among Whitey and this is the actual reason for the lack of fireworks.

  43. Leftism is non-falsifiable.

    You can’t get a much clearer complete failure than the Ferguson effect–a dramatic inflection point in the long term downtrend in crime, thousands of extra murders centered precisely in the three metros with the biggest racial mau-mauing against the man.

    Makes no difference. We’re beyond the realm of logic and reason here.

    Another reason–as if we needed more–for separation.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  44. Sleep says:

    Oh it all makes sense now, thank you. I had always wondered why warm-climate cities like Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong were so dangerous, and now I know. I think I’ll move to Minneapolis now, and just to be extra safe, i’ll buy an apartment on the north side.

  45. @Corvinus

    The Ferguson Effect has been called into question. Is it legitimate? To what extent? Or is it simply Alt Right fodder? Perhaps there is a story to NOTICE the methodologies of these studies and delve deeper into their findings.

    Did you read the article you linked to? You must have missed this in the literature review:

    Morgan and Pally(2016), for example, found evidence of de-policing by Baltimore officers following the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson (an effect that was even more pronounced following the death of local resident Freddie Gray).

    Shjarback et al. (2017) similarly found that police departments across the state of Missouri made fewer traffic stops, searches, and arrests in 2015 compared to 2014. A recent nationwide survey of nearly 8000 police officers suggests de-policing might be a pervasive strategy in response to negative police publicity. Seventy-two percent of the sample indicated that officers in their department recently “have become less willing to stop and question people who seem suspicious as a result of high-profile incidents involving blacks and the police”(Morin et al., 2017).

    The article does not support your position.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  46. Lowe says:
    @415 reasons

    Oops, disagreed by accident!

  47. Vendetta says:

    One might call it the Do The Right Thing Effect.

  48. tyrone says:
    @anon

    It’s that comedy show back in the 70′s,they were funny once, long long ago

  49. Corvinus says:
    @D. K.

    “A la last month, none of your citations even addresses the posited Ferguson Effect…”

    The researchers specifically studied this phenomenon. Either you are ignorant or being obtuse.

    • Troll: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @D. K.
  50. D. K. says:
    @Corvinus

    I have not read the actual studies; I simply am relying upon what you have (again) provided us:

    ***

    Colorado Boulder study looked at crime statistics from 81 U.S. cities and found no evidence of a Ferguson effect with respect to overall, violent, or property crime, but did identify an increase in robbery rates after the shooting of Michael Brown (while these rates had been decreasing before this shooting).”

    “A March 2016 study by Johns Hopkins University researchers Stephen L. Morgan and Joel Pally found that after Brown was shot, rates of many types of crimes in Baltimore decreased relative to what had been expected, while others (such as robbery and burglary) remained unchanged.”

    “Another 2016 study, led by Edward Maguire of Arizona State University, found no evidence of a “Ferguson effect” with regard to the number of police officers killed in the line of duty in the United States between August 2014 and March 2016.”

    “Additionally, a 2017 study led by Bradley Campbell of the University of Louisville, showed no significant increase or decrease in the number of citizens fatally shot by police after the events in Ferguson, MO in August 2014.”

    ***

    The first citation refers to a study that looked at “overall, violent, or property crime” in 81 American cities. It is not about the Ferguson Effect, which refers specifically to a dramatic increase in murders, theorized to be the result of a de facto reduction in street-level policing, which was itself the result of the demonizing of the police by the corporate propaganda media and the Obama Administration, to which they were in thrall, along with their allied left-wing activist groups, most notably George Soros’ Black Lives Matter front organization.

    The second citation refers to a study that looked at “rates of many types of crime in Baltimore,” after violent criminal Michael Brown was justifiably killed, on August 9, 2014, in Ferguson, Missouri. Again, that is not a study about the Ferguson Effect, which refers specifically to a dramatic increase in murders, theorized to be the result of a de facto reduction in street-level policing. More astonishingly, it studied the broad criminal effects that it was looking for in Baltimore in the wake of that justified killing in Missouri– rather than, say, after the subsequent Black race riot in Baltimore itself, the following spring, following the death of drug dealer Freddie Gray, who accidentally killed himself by acting out inside of a moving police van, while he was high on his own illicit wares, having swallowed them as he attempted to evade (another) arrest for drug dealing, in the city’s most notorious outdoor drug market.

    The third citation refers to the study that I have openly wondered about twice, now, in reaction to two of your own references to it, in the past five weeks. Again, however, it is not a study of the Ferguson Effect, which refers specifically to a dramatic increase in murders, theorized to be the result of a de facto reduction in street-level policing.

    The final citation is about fatal police shootings of “citizens” (although I doubt that citizenship status was actually determined, let alone used as a limiting factor on the incidents included in the study!?!). It is, at most, only tangential to the Ferguson Effect, which refers specifically to a dramatic increase in murders, theorized to be the result of a de facto reduction in street-level policing, since the number of fatal police shootings of others (whether citizens of the United States or not!) which end up being recorded as murders is undeniably de minimis.

    In short, you still are out of both your league and your depth, youngster. Please, go play in the street, like your late hero, the drug-addled violent criminal Michael Brown.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @Corvinus
  51. @ThirdWorldSteveReader

    - And now, hot air kills people!

    Well, the hot air wafting off the Potomac has certainly taken its share of lives there and in many other parts of the land.

  52. gunner29 says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    In Chicago, there is a correlation between higher temperatures and shootings. Look at the data at heyjackass.com, and Second City Blog has noted the trend as well.

    Most of the old buildings in Chicago where the blacks live have no air conditioning. Higher temperatures drive people out of their homes to sit on stoops or stand on street corners. I assume you can imagine what develops from there.

    dat be it! Also spend the entire day draining 40′s, smoking weed, doing crack, or whatever mind bender of choice. Then have someone else establish eye contact with you; I been dissed! So you pop a couple of 9s in his ass.

    That’s all it takes for 77 shootings, those reported to the cops, probably double that for the ones the cops don’t know about.

    Womyn I know lived half mile north of Wrigley field 40 years ago, she would park her car and start hiking back to her pad and walk into the crossfire of somebody who got dissed!

    Animals.

  53. @anon

    What are they so afraid of?

    The ugly truth will slay their beautiful theory of equality, and all their social, political and economic power with it.

  54. @TheJester

    2. If an increase in violence can be statistically attributed to Global Warming, then this is more evidence of the need to reverse Global Warming before the violence now confined to black ghettos escapes to the population at large

    One can argue coherently that, with China now the world’s largest GHG emitter* (and illegal producer of CFCs too!) and India not far behind, that the USA doesn’t matter too much, but we can STILL make a difference and set an example.

    Commuting is a major driver of GHG emissions.  One way to make a difference is to eliminate most of the need for long commutes and make public transit safe for everyone, especially White women with children.  It is largely the Black undertow which creates no-go zones and drives crime and “bad schools” over large areas, forcing Whites to flee for safety and commute to their jobs.  The fastest solution is to relocate the Black undertow from urban areas to places where there are no White victims to target.

    Liberia and Ghana are such places.  Since the undertow lives largely on EBT and housing subsidies, they can be relocated by the simple expedient of making their benefits payable only in Africa.

    Suddenly the no-go zones are totally free for gentrification.  Commutes become a snap.  Schools don’t need metal detectors.  And GHG emissions take a dive, while US oil imports become even less of a factor than they’ve become with fracking.

    Won’t happen while Dimocraps occupy even 1/3 of House and Senate seats, though.

    * China may not be for much longer.  China is about to replace a lot of the coal used for space heating with hot-water district heating systems fed by 400 megawatt swimming-pool reactors.  These reactors are simple, cheap and can be built in 2 years.  Watch for them to explode after the first few go in.  They’re doing this to clear the air, but emissions-free means ALL emissions, including CO2.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
  55. @Mr. Rational

    Watch for them to explode after the first few go in.

    Why will they explode?

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
  56. SF says:

    It’s not 100% bs. It remember a riot in Chicago back in the dark ages being started when cops busted kids for opening the fire hydrants. The next heat wave, they said go ahead, cool off and have fun

  57. @Jim Don Bob

    Why will they explode?

    Bad choice of words on my part.  They are physically incapable of creating explosions, but the number installed will explode because of public demand for an end to filthy air.

  58. @anon

    Check with Dr. Taleb I believe he showed that Pinker was full of you know what.

  59. I’ve read no statistics but I have read articles in the main stream media where Black Lives Matter activists denied ever having called for a reduction in policing in black communities. There has to be a reason for such a blatant lie. [email protected]

  60. anon[146] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    What are they so afraid of?

    The truth.

    Something no amount of Jewish cultural Marxism can eliminate.

  61. anon[146] • Disclaimer says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    Correlation is NOT causation. Imagine it is incredibly hot in Japan and lots of Japanese having no ac go outside to sit on stoops and street corners. I would find it very hard to believe this would cause a huge number of homicides in Japan.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
  62. anon[146] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus

    NO university in the politically correct USA of today is going to say anything bad about blacks sport.

  63. In crime reports from 2012-2016, Justice Department FBI attributed these 2-4%rises and falls in homicides in Chicago and Baltimore to reductions and increases in the efficiencies of the trauma centers in those two cities. Johns Hopkins and Uni/Chicago boast surgeons headed for and returning home from war zones of Iraq and Afghanistan and Germany, they train for gunshots overseas by serving periods at these trauma centers in the deep ghettos. U of Chicago closed the trauma center Southside (they couldn’t afford to stay open) and the homicide rate was said afterwards to have increased. In every case however, whatever the city measured and publicized for political gain or blame, the number of shootings themselves went up. And so homicide rates that increase or decrease in that narrow range are really mere reflections of the trauma center efficiencies in whatever city they were measuring. In cities without a First-due trauma facility, ‘homicide rates’ increase greatly, but never the numbers of shootings.

    These are after all cities where the contestants are all well-armed and do drive-by shootings on the funerals of the victims of their drive-by shootings. Class One Trauma Centers. When it comes to gang-bangers and the general purpose, feral ghetto-dweller, surgical facilities are like a good pistol: Don’t leave home in a city without one.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
  64. Corvinus says:
    @D. K.

    “It is not about the Ferguson Effect, which refers specifically to a dramatic increase in murders, theorized to be the result of a de facto reduction in street-level policing.”

    Typical. You purposely narrowed the definition to “murders” to suit your own narrative, rather than employ the actual definition.

    The Ferguson Effect refers to the increased scrutiny by the public, chiefly blacks, toward the tactics of law enforcement, which supposedly led police departments to withdraw from proactive policies that results in an increase in CRIMINAL activity for that particular area. Again, CRIMINAL activity. **This alleged relationship between public criticism, de-policing, and crime** was originally coined by former St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson. Furthermore, you do realize that any type of published study involving a concept must include an operational definition. The studies I cited used this definition**.

    Indeed, someone is out of their league, and that would be YOU.

    • Replies: @D. K.
  65. Corvinus says:
    @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    “Did you read the article you linked to? You must have missed this in the literature review?

    I linked to this article –>

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004723521730171X?via%3Dihub

    The quotation you offered does NOT appear here. Looks like you are trying to play a trick here. Not working.

    Now, the Morgan and Pally (2016) study acknowledges this de-policing effect. But, per usual, you did not offer the requisite context. The study recognizes the complex relationship between the national dialogue on policing and local Baltimore circumstances, taking into consideration many possible reasons for the crime surge after Gray’s death. “One reasonable interpretation of these entangled effects is that the crime spike in the Gray period could be a Ferguson effect that would have remained dormant had it not been ignited by a localized Gray effect,” the report states. “However, the size and duration of the crime spike is almost certainly attributable to particular features of the unrest, possibly including an increase in gang-related conflict over drug distribution as well as a police pullback in protest of the city’s leadership.”

  66. D. K. says:
    @Corvinus

    The Ferguson Effect that has been discussed frequently by Steve Sailer, here, and which has been pooh-poohed frequently by you, here, and by your like-minded ignoramuses in the corporate propaganda media, elsewhere, has been specifically about the dramatic increases in murders that occurred in the United States, but especially in or near the centers of left-wing and Department of Justice racial activism against law enforcement, in the years after your martyred hero, Michael Brown, the drug-addled violent criminal, was justifiably killed in that suburb of Saint Louis.

    Neither Steve Sailer nor anyone else here claimed that all American cities saw rises in all varieties of crime in the immediate aftermath of that one justified killing of a violent criminal in suburban Saint Louis; yet, that is just what the first of your four highlighted studies was trying to find. Instead, it found only some increase in the category of robberies, which hitherto had been in some decline. Who cares?

    For an academic researcher to study whether crime in general went up in Baltimore, in the months after Michael Brown’s demise outside of Saint Louis, as one of your chosen studies discusses, rather than, say, why murders went up dramatically in Baltimore, in the months and years after your drug-addled hero Freddie Gray, the convicted Baltimore drug dealer, accidentally killed himself, while in police custody, setting off a Black race riot in my old stomping grounds, is laughabe on the face of it.

    The two other studies that you chose to highlight both have to do with police shootings– one about police doing the shooting, and the other about policemen being shot. To claim that the number and nature of police shootings, nationwide, is what anyone has been referring to as “the Ferguson Effect,” since the justified killing of the drug-addled violent criminal Michael Brown, on August 9, 2014, is ludicrous.

    An academic’s setting up of a study with an operational definition of a named effect that is purposely divergent from the pre-existing meaning of that named effect that already has been widely discussed in the mainstream media– not just by the relatively unknown Steve Sailer, writing for his relatively unknown blog, at the relatively unknown Unz.com– is not delimiting that effect in a social-scientific way; it is deliberately trying to discredit the named effect by studying something divergent, and then claiming that the named effect was not found, and is thus discredited. It is, in other words, an act of academic and intellectual dishonesty.

    When you receive your invitation to join the Prometheus Society, junior, and earn enough advanced degrees to surpass my paltry few, then do feel free to tell me how I am simply not in your league.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  67. @Jim Christian

    “U of Chicago closed the trauma center Southside (they couldn’t afford to stay open) ”

    The UC trauma center on the Southside has REOPENED so Blacks can take their Wounded in Black Action to get patched up.

    https://trauma.uchospitals.edu/2017/10/11/video-trauma-center-on-the-south-side/

  68. @anon

    I never said it was. But it is obtuse to not understand how hot weather acts as a contributing factor to higher rates of violence in urban ghettos.

    It is equally obtuse to compare Japanese people to American inner city negros competing over gang turf and drug trade.

  69. Corvinus says:
    @D. K.

    “The Ferguson Effect that has been discussed frequently by Steve Sailer, here, and which has been pooh-poohed frequently by you, here, and by your like-minded ignoramuses in the corporate propaganda media, elsewhere, has been specifically about the dramatic increases in murders that occurred in the United States…”

    Doubling down on your own stupidity. The Ferguson Effect is NOT exclusively linked to murder. Even Sailer in this blog post talks about this phenomenon being connected to crime.

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/liberal-researcher-now-admits-ferguson-effect-on-murder-is-real

    While the title is misleading, there are several references to crime by our dear author. For example, he said that “crimes rate have generally been on a downward trend since perhaps the late 1970s, in part because crime doesn’t pay as well anymore.”

    The Ferguson Effect is about crime, which includes murder.

    “An academic’s setting up of a study with an operational definition of a named effect that is purposely divergent from the pre-existing meaning of that named effect that already has been widely discussed in the mainstream media…”

    Patently false. The authors of those studies properly defined that phenomenon. I even noted that the police chief responsible for coining the Ferguson Effect referred to it as being about criminal activity, NOT simply murder. You are the one being purposely deceitful here.

    • Troll: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @D. K.
  70. D. K. says:
    @Corvinus

    No one has said that only murder rates have been affected by de-policing; but murder is both the most serious crime and the one hardest to undercount in official crime statistics. That is why the marked rise in murders nationwide, after many years of decline, became the subject of the hypothesized “Ferguson Effect”— per its own Wikipedia.org entry (and contra your above claim):

    “The term was coined by Doyle Sam Dotson III, the chief of the St. Louis police, to account for an increased murder rate in some U.S. cities following the Ferguson unrest.[1]”

    The marked increase in the murder rate nationwide— but especially in the few communities targeted by George Soros’ Black Lives Matter front organization and/or the Obama Administration— in the years following the justified killing of drug-addled violent criminal Michael Brown, on August 9, 2014– which led to a Black race riot, in the small suburban community of Ferguson, Missouri— and then the accidental suicide by the drug-addled drug pusher Freddie Gray, in Baltimore, on April 12, 2015– which also led to a Black race riot, and then to the malicious criminal indictments of six police officers by the inept and corrupt district attorney for Baltimore City— is what has been the primary focus of the arguments over whether there has (or, at least, had) been any “Ferguson Effect” at all.

    Again, two of your four chosen studies had to do with police shootings— one with the police as shooters, and the other with the police as victims. No one but you and those two studies’ authors has attempted to operationally define the “Ferguson Effect” in terms of a rise in either variety of those two specific types of incidents (with most shootings by police not even being crimes!), which together comprise a tiny percentage of all of the shootings and shooting deaths in this country, in any given year. (For the third time, at least, I again note that the study about the shootings of police officers that you again chose to present, above, deliberately used a cut-off date of March 31, 2016, to avoid its having to draw a very different conclusion, a la that laid out in the December 11, 2016, newspaper article that I linked to, above— as I originally had last month, when you first used it to pooh-pooh Steve Sailer’s many blog posts on the “Ferguson Effect” and the many thousands of extra murder victims that it had produced, in just the first couple of years following the death of the drug-addled violent criminal, Michael Brown.)

    One of your other two chosen studies laughably looked for a rise in crimes of various types in distant Baltimore, in the months after the justified shooting death of drug-addled violent criminal Michael Brown, in Ferguson, Missouri— rather than looking for rises in such crimes, but especially murders, in the months and years after the accidental suicide of drug-addled drug pusher Freddie Gray, in Baltimore itself, which led to another Black race riot, there, and the most pronounced de-policing by any police force in the United States, because of the malicious prosecutions against six Baltimore police officers!

    The lone remaining study that you chose to present, above, is the only one of the four studies cited that attempted to look at what you now claim is the true meaning of the “Ferguson Effect”: a general rise in crimes of all types, across the United States, solely as a result of the Ferguson controversy’s effect on police behavior, nationwide. Tell the good folks in my old haunts of downtown Baltimore how de-policing, due to “anti-racist” campaigns against having the police deal with crime where it actually is found, has no effect on the incidence of crime, in general, and on the homicide rate, in particular.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  71. Corvinus says:
    @D. K.

    The Ferguson Effect deals with criminal activity, including murder. In context, the police chief of St. Louis acknowledged it as murder in the aftermath of the Brown incident, but also specified, as has the media, law enforcement, and politicians, as including violent crimes. You got caught trying to shanghai the definition for your own designs. It is NOT narrow, but broad. The authors of those studies used the proper definition. Admit you were wrong and move on.

    “(For the third time, at least, I again note that the study about the shootings of police officers that you again chose to present, above, deliberately used a cut-off date of March 31, 2016, to avoid its having to draw a very different conclusion…”

    That would be YOUR characterization as “deliberate”, which is speculation, not fact, on your part.

    • Troll: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @D. K.
  72. D. K. says:
    @Corvinus

    Again, what immediately follows is the entirety of the academic evidence that you yourself chose to present to us in order to prove your contention that there was no discernible “Ferguson Effect,” following the justified police killing of drug-addled violent criminal Michael Brown, in Ferguson, Missouri, on August 9, 2014, and that Steve Sailer has been deliberately ignoring this dispositive “scientific” consensus, because he is a filthy, racist, ultra-right-wing demagogue:

    ***

    Colorado Boulder study looked at crime statistics from 81 U.S. cities and found no evidence of a Ferguson effect with respect to overall, violent, or property crime, but did identify an increase in robbery rates after the shooting of Michael Brown (while these rates had been decreasing before this shooting).”

    “A March 2016 study by Johns Hopkins University researchers Stephen L. Morgan and Joel Pally found that after Brown was shot, rates of many types of crimes in Baltimore decreased relative to what had been expected, while others (such as robbery and burglary) remained unchanged.”

    “Another 2016 study, led by Edward Maguire of Arizona State University, found no evidence of a “Ferguson effect” with regard to the number of police officers killed in the line of duty in the United States between August 2014 and March 2016.”

    “Additionally, a 2017 study led by Bradley Campbell of the University of Louisville, showed no significant increase or decrease in the number of citizens fatally shot by police after the events in Ferguson, MO in August 2014.”

    ***

    YOU (TODAY):

    ***

    The Ferguson Effect deals with criminal activity, including murder. In context, the police chief of St. Louis acknowledged it as murder in the aftermath of the Brown incident, but also specified, as has the media, law enforcement, and politicians, as including violent crimes. You got caught trying to shanghai the definition for your own designs. It is NOT narrow, but broad.

    ***

    YOU (TWO DAYS AGO):

    ***

    The Ferguson Effect refers to the increased scrutiny by the public, chiefly blacks, toward the tactics of law enforcement, which supposedly led police departments to withdraw from proactive policies that results in an increase in CRIMINAL activity for that particular area. Again, CRIMINAL activity. **This alleged relationship between public criticism, de-policing, and crime** was originally coined by former St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson.

    ***

    WIKIPEDIA.ORG ENTRY FOR “FERGUSON EFFECT” (BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER ALL OF THE ABOVE COMMENTS POSTED BY YOU IN THIS THREAD):

    ***

    “The term was coined by Doyle Sam Dotson III, the chief of the St. Louis police, to account for an increased murder rate in some U.S. cities following the Ferguson unrest.[1]”

    ***

    CITATION [1]: Gold, Ashley (5 June 2015). “Why has the murder rate in some US cities suddenly spiked?”. BBC News. Retrieved 15 December 2015.

    ***

    YOU (ALSO TODAY):

    ***

    The authors of those studies used the proper definition. Admit you were wrong and move on.

    ***

    I have shown multiple times, above, that only one of your four cited studies even tried to study the “Ferguson Effect” as you yourself claim it is to be broadly defined, substantively and geographically. Two of your other three studies dealt with police killings, with one of them dealing with the killing of policemen, using an arbitrary cut-off date of March 31, 2016– leaving out the spate of BLM-inspired killings later that year, including the eight police officers killed in Dallas and Baton Rouge, in a ten-day period in July 2016– with the other study dealing with fatal shootings by police. The latter study is utterly irrelevant, because, with rare exceptions, such shootings are a justifiable use of police force, and simply not criminal acts at all, thus falling outside of your own broad definition of the “Ferguson Effect”!

    Here is an academic study listed at the aforementioned Wikipedia.org entry for the “Ferguson effect” that you somehow overlooked, junior:

    ***

    A June 2016 University of Missouri study by Rosenfeld, published by the National Institute of Justice found that there was an “unprecedented” 16.8% increase in homicides in 56 large cities over the course of 2015,[19][20] and examined the Ferguson effect as one of three plausible explanations recommended for further research. Rosenfeld stated that “the only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect” and that it is his “leading hypothesis”.[21]

    ***

    So, the one study that you cited that uses your own broad definition, substantively and geographically, of the “Ferguson Effect” found that there was no statistically significant change in crime, nationwide, following the Ferguson incident, other than an unexpected increase for robberies. Your citation that dealt with fatal shootings by policemen said that there was no statistically significant change in the number of “citizens” shot dead by the police. Your citation that dealt with the murders of policemen– but only through March 31, 2016!– likewise said that there was no statistically significant change in the numbers murdered. Your remaining reference, which studied a supposed variety of crimes, but only in Baltimore, where the Johns Hopkins researchers themselves were located, and only in the immediate aftermath of the Ferguson incident– rather than in the long wake of the city’s own Freddie Gray race riot, eight months later!– found that the rates for some of those various crimes “decreased relative to what had been expected”– What exactly were those researchers expecting?– while others, including robberies and burglaries, were statistically unchanged.

    From those four cherry-picked studies, you conclude that there has been no “Ferguson Effect” at all– despite the “unprecedented” rise in murders in 2015, and another huge increase in 2016, which, as Steve Sailer just blogged, declined by a mere 0.7% in 2017, from the heights of the vast increases of the two preceding years– and that anyone who claims that there has been a “Ferguson Effect” vis-a-vis the annual murder rate in this country is trying to “shanghai” that term for nefarious purposes. Got it!

    YOU (ALSO TODAY):

    ***

    That would be YOUR characterization as “deliberate”, which is speculation, not fact, on your part.

    ***

    As a published author in the social sciences since 1981, it is not mere “speculation” on my part that researchers like Arizona State University’s Edward R. Maguire define the parameters of their own research studies, such that they themselves choose precisely which time periods they are going to study and compare statistically, looking for an effect. His study was published online on September 29, 2016– months after the spate of BLM-inspired ambush killings of police officers began, including five in Dallas and three in Baton Rouge, within a ten-day period. You will note that Professor Maguire and his cohorts have yet to extend their study’s findings beyond March 31, 2016, to test the robustness of their data; nor have any of their fellow “scientists” in the field of Criminology apparently bothered to do so, either:

    https://www.tandfonline.com/keyword/Ferguson+Effect

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  73. Corvinus says:

    My “YOU (TODAY)” and “YOU (TWO DAYS AGO)” definition of the Ferguson Effect are consistent. Criminal activity includes murder. Murder is criminal activity. Moreover, the studies that I presented provided the appropriate definition of the Ferguson Effect, and looked it this phenomenon from different angles, ones that you twist and turn to suit your own narrative. Their conclusions, it would appear, are what you find disturbing, but twisting and turning what they ought to have done, rather than what they actually did in their work, to suit your narrative does little to help your cause.

    Moving forward, I would agree that the researchers ought to conduct similar studies to replicate their findings and address their critics.

    • Troll: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @D. K.
  74. D. K. says:
    @Corvinus

    You are blowing smoke out of your well-worn ass, junior, as anyone else reading this thread realizes.

    I will give you another shot at it, though:

    ***

    June 2016 University of Missouri study by Rosenfeld, published by the National Institute of Justice found that there was an “unprecedented” 16.8% increase in homicides in 56 large cities over the course of 2015,[19][20] and examined the Ferguson effect as one of three plausible explanations recommended for further research. Rosenfeld stated that “the only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect” and that it is his “leading hypothesis”.[21]

    ***

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