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From the New York Times’ Upshot section:

How to Predict Gentrification: Look for Falling Crime

Emily Badger @emilymbadger JAN. 5, 2017

Everyone has theories for why well-educated, higher-income professionals are moving back into parts of cities shunned by their parents’ generation.

Perhaps their living preferences have shifted. Or the demands of the labor market have, and young adults with less leisure time are loath to waste it commuting. Maybe the tendency to postpone marriage and children has made city living more alluring. Or the benefits of cities themselves have improved.

“There are all sorts of potential other amenities, whether it’s cafes, restaurants, bars, nicer parks, better schools,” said Ingrid Gould Ellen, a professor of urban policy and planning at New York University.

“But a huge piece of it,” she said, “I think is crime.”

Ladies and gentlemen: you have just witnessed a novel thought in the history of the human race!

New research that she has conducted alongside Keren Mertens Horn, an economist at the University of Massachusetts in Boston, and Davin Reed, a doctoral student at N.Y.U., finds that when violent crime falls sharply, wealthier and educated people are more likely to move into lower-income and predominantly minority urban neighborhoods.

Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification.

But, but, I had always read that White Flight a half century ago was solely due to racist hallucinations.

And it highlights how, even if many Americans — including, by his own words, President-elect Donald Trump — inaccurately believe urban violence is soaring, the opposite long-term trend has brought wide-ranging change to cities.

Homicides have soared since Ferguson in cities that had the bad luck to have the Eye of Soros turn upon them: St. Louis, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Chicago, etc.

“We’re trying to help people understand what a dramatic difference the reduction in violent crime in particular has made in our environment,” Ms. Ellen said. “That has repercussions far beyond what we think of. The homicide rate has gone down — that’s directly the most important consequence. But there are all sorts of repercussions as well. This really has been a sea change.”

Nationally, violent crime peaked in 1991. It fell precipitously for the next decade, then more slowly through the 2000s (and there’s a whole other set of theories about why that has happened). While homicides have increased recently in some cities, rates remain far below what they were 25 years ago, including in Chicago. (Another end-of-year fact-check, while we’re at it: Mr. Trump claimed during the campaign that the homicide rate in his new home in Washington rose by 50 percent. In fact, it fell by 17 percent in 2016.)

Uh, obviously, during the 2016 campaign, Trump was referring to the 2015 increase in homicides in Washington DC. In his usual understated way, Trump actually understated the 2015 increase, which was 54%, not Trump’s 50%. So, homicides in the nation’s capital in 2016, such as the murder of Seth Rich, were up 28% over 2014. Homicides ought to drop several percentage points per year due to better emergency care and better surveillance technology.

By the way, predicting gentrification should be doable using Big Data, crowdsourcing, keyword analysis of social media, and the like. There are fortunes to be made.

That reminds me: In Los Angeles, gentrification tends to happen near or in hills — Silver Lake, Echo Park, Highland Park, Atwater Village. It goes back to the Night of the Locust assumption among Southern California thought leaders that hills are more defensible when the L.A. Zombie Apocalypse happens.

But the problem with this love of hills is that hills are bad for the end game of gentrification — as seen in gentrification Nirvana, Park Slope in Brooklyn — which is neighborhoods where numerous married mothers of two push double strollers down the sidewalks. Hilly neighborhoods, however, are tougher to walk and often don’t even have sidewalks.

Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders. This seems like a coordination problem that social media could overcome.

 
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  1. Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification.

    And next you’ll tell us that implementing tracking and strict discipline will cause more white children to attend those cities’ public schools.

    • Agree: Triumph104, Bill
  2. >>Hilly neighborhoods, however, are tougher to walk and often don’t even have sidewalks.

    I would never live in a neighborhood without sidewalks. Gimme San Fernando valley any day.

    • Replies: @Jacobite
    @Daniel H

    I dunno, West LA is pretty nice and it has sidewalks.

  3. Oh, I get it. Racism is determined by direction. If you’re running AWAY from high-crime areas, it’s Racism. If you’re running TOWARD places with low (or falling) crime, it’s Gentrification, which is permissible.

    Maybe instead of “white flight,” we should call it “gentrifying the countryside.”

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Mr. Blank

    No, SJWs rage at gentrification. They rage at everything, really.

    , @ben tillman
    @Mr. Blank


    Maybe instead of “white flight,” we should call it “gentrifying the countryside.”
     
    White Flight is a response to Black Attack.
  4. Those White SOBs.

    They move into a neighborhood and drive up property values.

    OK I get it about cleaning the trash out of the yard when they move in, but they even do BS like planting flowers.

    What is it with those people? 😉

  5. Why does N.W.A Land not have the same charm as Harlem has in the eyes of White Liberals?

    • Replies: @SFG
    @Jefferson

    It's in New York, man!

    There's also the history with the Harlem Renaissance and jazz, which people outside Harlem eventually accepted as art.

    , @Bill B.
    @Jefferson

    It is perhaps necessary to watch these types of videos once in a while...

    Target audience IQ = 75?

    , @Colleen Pater
    @Jefferson

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION
    Harlem adjoins the most expensive real estate in the world the upper east side of Manhattan. As the city got more and more expensive the places on the periphery of better places gentrified first. The lower east side adjoins the west village.The north half was renamed the east village after it was gentrified the parts of it east and south were also gentrified since they were then bordering the new east village.South of the west village was soho and tribecca they went a little slower because it was an abandonned commercial area, zoning laws and and lack of services slowed it, The upper west side was the land were Death Wish was filmed but eventually it being the west side of central park with riverside park on its other side and its wonderful architecture and cultural and civic infrastructure became irresistible. Brooklyn took a long while because as long as these other places actually in Manhatten. The areas that went first were closest to Manhatten or closest to Brooklyn areas that had not completely succumbed, its ongoing much of Brooklyn is still black but landlords are paying 100k for tenants to go away.

    Replies: @Kyle McKenna

    , @George
    @Jefferson

    Search on: compton gentrification

    I have to testify
    I'm hope'n some hipsters come to Gentrify.

    Word

    Friends Of The People - Gentrify Rap

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxjAZ6utVFY

    Replies: @Jefferson

  6. Isn’t “gentrification” a microaggression?

    No, seriously. Based as it is on the word “gentry,” meaning “people of education and good breeding,” doesn’t it perfectly fit the definition of something “that has no malicious intent, but that can be interpreted as ‘hostile or destructive’?”

    More broadly, why is that when whites move into black neighborhoods, it’s gentrification, but when they move out of black neighborhoods, it’s white flight? Or, if the market does it, it’s gentrification, but if the government does it, it’s “building inclusive communities”. For AFFH, based on “villein” (a tenant subject to a lord), I submit “villeification/villeify”, but I suppose this is too close to “villification/villify” to catch on.

    • Agree: Almost Missouri
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Chrisnonymous

    The concept always confused me. One of my best friends is "Southern gentry", a Georgian who had a plantation that avoided being broken up, so they have maintained a pretty vast farm to this day, modernizing it as time went on: adding a hanger for the crop duster planes, more tractors and having an increasingly white "redneck" farmhand base. Surprisingly profitable.

    But as far as I can tell, they more or less remain forever in a little town outside of Atlanta, rather than invade cities per se.

  7. Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders. This seems like a coordination problem that social media could overcome.

    Straights inta Compton.

    Well, it’s usually gays first until the coast is clear.

    • Replies: @Anonymous Nephew
    @Desiderius

    "it’s usually gays first until the coast is clear"

    Gays and young single people. No one (except the terminally stupid/liberal) wants to use their kids as pioneers.

    Notting Hill in London went from white working class --> West Indian --> white "alternative" --> young white professional --> upper-middle class in 60 years, looks as if Brixton's at the change to young white professional. Clapham next door is becoming much more young and white.

    Location helps - Notting Hill is still pretty central, Brixton/Clapham aren't, so no future Prime Minister is likely to live there.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Desiderius



    Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders. This seems like a coordination problem that social media could overcome.
     

     
    My question: Are there really enough whites to keep gentrification going?

    Ok, LA i get--the weather and Hollyweird keep white flyover country young people showing up there. And the traffic and the Mexification of far suburbs means you can't really "go to LA" and live in apartment complex in the boonies.

    San Francisco also--silly valley for the nerds and the city for the queers. Ok. California still looms large in the national imagination though the Beach Boys and the its days as a true paradise are long-in-the-tooth or dead. NYC ok. And D.C.--plenty of folks always wanting to get to the imperial capital to tit suck.

    But beyond those four, strikes me that we're running out of whites to keep it up. What are we at 1.7, 1.8 TFR? And it's probably 1.5 for college educated women who must hatch the next generation of yuppie gentrifiers. Ok--to be fair--that low fertility itself creates some demand among the never marrying\childless. But then they drop dead without replacement.

    I'll grant it's lucrative if you can call it--the tragic-to-magic transition. But i just don't see it going on and on and on. Demographics.

    Increasingly the future of America looks i think the sprawl suburban shabbiness i see around Orlando--Latin America meets American suburbia.
  8. Section 8 and the recent spate of “fair housing” edicts have made avoiding “crime” and finding good public schools more challenging than just moving it to the right the zip code.

  9. Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification.

    Penetrating insights from cutting edge academics into a super-subtle phenomenon.

    Amateurs would have just asked a few people who moved out of the cities in the seventies why they moved out. The people would have told them why they moved out, and then the amateurs would have known why they moved out. To make sure, the amateurs might have read some old newspapers or watched some old movies like Death Wish (1974), Being There (1979), or The Exorcist (1973). A couple day’s work … maybe.

    But that won’t get you published in a prestigious academic journal. Nope. For that, you need a 41 page paper with 13 tables of statistical results. (With multinomial logits, and Chow tests!)

    • LOL: Jacobite
    • Replies: @SFG
    @FactsAreImportant

    The irony is you could easily produce 41 pages with 13 tables showing that, but you'd never get published. I think Jared Taylor did as much, back in the day.

  10. Typically, when Hispanics ethnically cleanse blacks, the crime rate goes down, right? I believe Mr. Unz described this to have happened in East Palo Alto. So, if that has happened in L.A., that should have created many opportunities.

    And yet, I also have the impression that there are plenty of dangerous Hispanic areas in L.A. too. So maybe not(?)

    http://www.vdare.com/articles/extended-families-and-their-crime-coming-to-america
    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-lapd-learns-from-machiavelli/

    Personally, I like the old houses in Angelino Heights and West Adams.

    http://preservation.lacity.org/gallery/38
    http://preservation.lacity.org/gallery/37

    The Sun Belt tends to be short on pre-Depression architecture, but what there is, is nice. And well-preserved due to the weather?

  11. You also need cheap labor to renovate old buildings. Not to mention cheap labor to have ethnic restaurants. So there is more to it than low crime.

  12. Shouldn’t gentrification be called denegrification?

    • Replies: @Flip
    @Anon

    When the Cabrini Green housing project in Chicago was being shut down, the tenants put up banners that said "stop ethnic cleansing." It didn't do any good though. The land was too valuable to be used for poor people.

    , @CK
    @Anon

    " denegrification" to long, unwieldy not at all mellifluous ... let me suggest brightening or lightening or liberalizing.

    Replies: @Anon

  13. Ladies and gentlemen: you have just witnessed a novel thought in the history of the human race!

    I once heard someone, jokingly, say; “You know my father learned a lot in the time between my sixteenth and twenty-seventh birthdays.”

    I suspect you will see a lot of similar statements over the next (hopefully) eight years.

  14. @Daniel H
    >>Hilly neighborhoods, however, are tougher to walk and often don’t even have sidewalks.

    I would never live in a neighborhood without sidewalks. Gimme San Fernando valley any day.

    Replies: @Jacobite

    I dunno, West LA is pretty nice and it has sidewalks.

  15. @Jefferson
    Why does N.W.A Land not have the same charm as Harlem has in the eyes of White Liberals?

    https://youtu.be/7aleRvCrXp4

    Replies: @SFG, @Bill B., @Colleen Pater, @George

    It’s in New York, man!

    There’s also the history with the Harlem Renaissance and jazz, which people outside Harlem eventually accepted as art.

  16. @FactsAreImportant

    Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification.
     
    Penetrating insights from cutting edge academics into a super-subtle phenomenon.

    Amateurs would have just asked a few people who moved out of the cities in the seventies why they moved out. The people would have told them why they moved out, and then the amateurs would have known why they moved out. To make sure, the amateurs might have read some old newspapers or watched some old movies like Death Wish (1974), Being There (1979), or The Exorcist (1973). A couple day's work ... maybe.

    But that won't get you published in a prestigious academic journal. Nope. For that, you need a 41 page paper with 13 tables of statistical results. (With multinomial logits, and Chow tests!)

    Replies: @SFG

    The irony is you could easily produce 41 pages with 13 tables showing that, but you’d never get published. I think Jared Taylor did as much, back in the day.

  17. Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification.

    Take note. It’s just a ‘working paper’. The matter obviously needs to be studied in much greater depth, for a few more decades, before drawing any hasty conclusions. Wouldn’t want to go out too far on a limb or anything.

    One angle worth pursuing: what exactly is it about white people which seems to make so many of them averse to violent crime? Can this tendency be addressed somehow? It’s obviously racist, like everything else about white people.

    I, for one, welcome our insect overlords, er, I mean courageous academics; and I look forward to more of their daring exploits.

    • LOL: theo the kraut
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Kyle McKenna

    Kyle, I have three children, all adults, living in Lakewood, Ohio, first suburb west of Cleveland. Rock solid housing for the most part but the fringe, closest to Cleveland is getting edgy (W117 Street is the east border.) A few weeks ago there was a drive by shooting at the gas station at Franklin and W117, which is next to the Dunkin Donuts where I stop to get coffee and donuts. Just previous to that there was an armed robbery and shooting at a car dealer at W117 and the entrance to the I-90.This summer a woman came home to find a vibrant in her apartment and he stabbed her with a screw driver. That was walking distance to my daughters' apartments. My son has one daughter in private school now and his youngest daughter will follow next year. He is looking to move west to Rocky River, super solid burb . My two daughters are looking to move west also to RR or maybe Avon Lake. You don't want to be the last one out and you need to beat the housing price rise. My son is a conservative, but my daughters still lean left but are starting to waver. Giant Eagle is closing some stores in Cleveland which means the diverse crowd will be shopping at their Giant Eagle, so they will probably have to shop at Whole Foods or Trader Joe's or Heinen's, which means a bigger food bill. They already avoid the Dunkin Donuts, the closest liquor store and the town pool. There, I did the research, so where's my grant?

    Replies: @Desiderius

    , @anonguy
    @Kyle McKenna


    One angle worth pursuing: what exactly is it about white people which seems to make so many of them averse to violent crime? Can this tendency be addressed somehow? It’s obviously racist, like everything else about white people.
     
    Looking like Fake News to me...

    .... because compared to, say, East Asians, you'd have to flip that question, what makes so many white people prone to violent crime.

    And then you'd have to define what it is you mean by white people.

    And then....

    Just goes on and on.

    Replies: @Jefferson

  18. >>Hilly neighborhoods, however, are tougher to walk and often don’t even have sidewalks.<<

    Which keeps shiftless youths from shuffling aimlessly around, or swaggering around, or loping around with their heads swiveling, looking for easy targets….

    The safety of gentrified neighborhoods is overstated. (e.g. Seth Rich) Seattle has a lot of crime in gentrified neighborhoods, and I think the same is true other places. SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    @Thrasymachus

    "SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real."

    They have a hard time believing Black crime is real, so who do Social Justice Warriors believe murdered Biggie and 2Pac? Jared Taylor and Steve Bannon?

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Thrasymachus

    "The safety of gentrified neighborhoods is overstated."

    Indeed. A lot of gentrified neighborhoods in San Francisco are now reportedly undergoing a wave of petty crime: car break-ins, public intoxication, vandalism, people shooting up heroin in public, sidewalks and other public areas befouled with urine and feces.

    , @biz
    @Thrasymachus


    SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real.
     
    There are yuppies, there are SJWs, and there are some people where the two overlap, but their private and public feelings toward the reality of crime are more complicated than you have expressed.

    Replies: @BucephalusXYZ

  19. @Thrasymachus
    >>Hilly neighborhoods, however, are tougher to walk and often don’t even have sidewalks.<<

    Which keeps shiftless youths from shuffling aimlessly around, or swaggering around, or loping around with their heads swiveling, looking for easy targets....

    The safety of gentrified neighborhoods is overstated. (e.g. Seth Rich) Seattle has a lot of crime in gentrified neighborhoods, and I think the same is true other places. SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real.

    Replies: @Jefferson, @Mr. Anon, @biz

    “SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real.”

    They have a hard time believing Black crime is real, so who do Social Justice Warriors believe murdered Biggie and 2Pac? Jared Taylor and Steve Bannon?

  20. “Falling crime” strikes me as something that happens relatively late in the gentrification process. The first phase seems to be recognition by mostly white punks/anarchists/ultra-hipsters that you can get abodes that are in some sense objectively nice or interesting in places eschewed by the mainstream. So far as I can tell, this is almost always a sort of reconquista (but never described that way) as “whites” come to occupy formerly white areas (even if proximity to “diversity” is often taken as a plus – and not entirely crazily, I think – you get interesting food, with a chance of a beating). It seems that the main factors are public transport, foot/bike access to interesting areas, and low rent, but maybe there are others. Then come more intellectual types: grad students, wannabe grad students, etc. Finally come those who can actually afford Whole Foods without debt. But they only arrive once the crime rate has already demonstrably dropped.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @BucephalusXYZ

    When I moved to Chicago in 1982, the hottest gentrifying area was the arts district of Superior and Huron ("SuHu") Streets in River North. Artists like to have a lot of space.

    Replies: @pyrrhus, @Mr. Anon, @BucephalusXYZ

  21. Steve, do consider creating a Morons of the Mass Media set of trading cards, willya?

    It’s hard to remember who is who.

    Emily Badger is a writer based in San Francisco, where she covers national urban policy for The Washington Post. She writes frequently about urban planning, housing, transportation, poverty and inequality — and why we can’t understand any of these topics without considering the others. She’s particularly interested in how technology will change the way we move around cities, why the design of cities matters for economic mobility, and what it will mean for all of us to live in an increasingly urban world. In the past, she’s also been interested in cul-de-sacs, roadside rest area culture, weird commuting patterns and swaying skyscrapers.

    Oh yeah. Her.

    Emily grew up in Chicago, where she first learned to think about architecture, inequality and the value of public transit. She has also lived for various stretches in Portland, Cleveland, Orlando, Tallahassee, Paris, Norfolk, Atlanta and Washington. Along the way, she got a bachelor’s in journalism from Northwestern and a master’s in nonfiction writing from Johns Hopkins University.

    Actually that latter is a lie. According to her resume, she got a Masters of Writing in creative nonfiction.

    http://www.emilybadger.com/resume/

    For someone who spends a lot of time writing about cities, Emily tries to get as far away from them as possible when she’s not working. She loves to camp and hike and has, on the rare occasion, found an excuse to write about that, too.

    OK, I’ll trade my mid-Aughts Orlando Sentinel sports reporter Emily Badger and Fox-era Megyn Kelly for “suburban mom whore/heroin addict” era Sabrina Rubin Erdely and that Ibo guy who writes for Slate.

    Takers? Hello?

    • Replies: @Elf Himself
    @Olorin

    Oy. Few prose stylings are as annoying as a bio sketch which, while obviously written by the subject, is nevertheless written in the third person.

  22. @Desiderius

    Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders. This seems like a coordination problem that social media could overcome.
     
    Straights inta Compton.

    Well, it's usually gays first until the coast is clear.

    Replies: @Anonymous Nephew, @AnotherDad

    “it’s usually gays first until the coast is clear”

    Gays and young single people. No one (except the terminally stupid/liberal) wants to use their kids as pioneers.

    Notting Hill in London went from white working class –> West Indian –> white “alternative” –> young white professional –> upper-middle class in 60 years, looks as if Brixton’s at the change to young white professional. Clapham next door is becoming much more young and white.

    Location helps – Notting Hill is still pretty central, Brixton/Clapham aren’t, so no future Prime Minister is likely to live there.

  23. @BucephalusXYZ
    "Falling crime" strikes me as something that happens relatively late in the gentrification process. The first phase seems to be recognition by mostly white punks/anarchists/ultra-hipsters that you can get abodes that are in some sense objectively nice or interesting in places eschewed by the mainstream. So far as I can tell, this is almost always a sort of reconquista (but never described that way) as "whites" come to occupy formerly white areas (even if proximity to "diversity" is often taken as a plus - and not entirely crazily, I think - you get interesting food, with a chance of a beating). It seems that the main factors are public transport, foot/bike access to interesting areas, and low rent, but maybe there are others. Then come more intellectual types: grad students, wannabe grad students, etc. Finally come those who can actually afford Whole Foods without debt. But they only arrive once the crime rate has already demonstrably dropped.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    When I moved to Chicago in 1982, the hottest gentrifying area was the arts district of Superior and Huron (“SuHu”) Streets in River North. Artists like to have a lot of space.

    • Replies: @pyrrhus
    @Steve Sailer

    We lived in Chicago Near North on Cleveland at the same time, which was near the boundary of full gentrification. Gentrification has spread continually North and West from the lakefront since then (as well as taking down Cabrini Green to the South), while the rest of Chicago has plateaued (near West side) or collapsed. Except perhaps for Obama's area in Hyde Park.....But it has reached the point that everyone above working class lives on the North side.

    But this is consistent with what I call the Lakefront Rule, which applies all the way North to the Wisconsin border, and especially in the North Shore communities. Property values are determined by your distance from Lake Michigan, period, and if you live more than about 2 miles from the shoreline, you are regarded as not upper middle class.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Flip

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    "When I moved to Chicago in 1982, the hottest gentrifying area was the arts district of Superior and Huron (“SuHu”) Streets in River North. Artists like to have a lot of space."

    What's with the Hiragana-like urban abbreviation trend: SuHu, SoHo, NoHo, TriBeCa, etc. It seemed to start in the 90s sometime; I don't ever recall hearing it before. Back in the 70s, in Frisco, South of Market was called "South of Market" - now it's called "SoMa". Is it just laziness?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @BucephalusXYZ
    @Steve Sailer

    Good point. Whatever anyone thinks of their product, "artists" do aim to actually DO stuff (as opposed to surfing the net and whatnot), and you usually need some space to do it. As someone who grew up in a major suburban area, but has subsequently lived in border regions of several 1st and 2nd tier urban cores, one of the things that has surprised me has been how much "space" there is on the urban core fringes (at least in some places).

  24. Gentrification itself obviously reduces crime, just by replacing a high-crime demographic with a low-crime one. So sorting out cause and effect here isn’t easy.

    It’s like, if I have a sore back and I take an Advil every six hours, then starting with my second Advil, a naive observer might think that I tend to take Advil at times when my back is hurting less.

    • Replies: @Forbes
    @International Jew

    At what point does the churn of housing turnover become gentrification? Rising rents due to rising demand?

    Having moved to Manhattan 30 years ago, the change in neighborhoods (mothers with baby carriages, rather than moving to the 'burbs upon pregnancy) was due to a drastic reduction in crime resulting from Giuliani's policies. In other words, white flight ended, rather than a homesteading reconquista--the Upper East or West Sides weren't in need of gentrification.

    But NYC was unique (I think) as for many years ('90s) it was responsible for fully one-half of the national reduction in the number of crimes committed, i.e. largest city with a high crime rate became a much lower crime rate city.

    The spillover effect to Harlem, Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen (renamed Clinton Hill by some), East Village, and the outer boroughs (South Bronx, Bed-Stuy, Brownsville, et al.) resulted.

    Yet, I think most people associate gentrification with a kind of homesteading recoquista--where new housing occupants look at the price/value trade-off, and take a risk.

  25. By the way, predicting gentrification should be doable using Big Data, crowdsourcing, keyword analysis of social media, and the like. There are fortunes to be made.

    Could this be the elusive way to turn Sailerosphere insights into something marketable?

    Steve has often, complained about the lack of money making opportunities to be made off of this knowledge. Charles Johnson, however has managed to mine Sailer’s insights into making money for financial investors. From what I recall he helps investors target companies that start to publicly virtue signal about diversity which is a sign the company is going down. I believe he says that this has been a success.

    I imagine the real estate industry is fairly cynical so perhaps Steve could approach some of them and convince them to sponsor a moneyball type crew for predicting gentrification. All of this would be private to keep out bad publicity. I’m sure Johnson could be solicited as a middleman of some kind since he owes some of his success to Steve.

    I started (((noticing))) things and read the Bell Curve. I legit hid it under my mattress. Steve Sailer was a huge influence. I used to work in a computer lab in high school and I would read him and delete my history lest anyone found out.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/4js4s8/i_am_chuck_c_johnson_ama/d3927zn/

    I’m sure Charles Murray could provide for further validation to such a group. Time to cash in.

    • Replies: @BucephalusXYZ
    @Sam

    My sense is that many in the real estate industry are already fairly good at predicting gentrification (although risky gambles often ensue). But I don't think many will trumpet this fact. Interestingly, the people making money from gentrification seem to be not only those involved in institutional real estate, but also many seemingly leftist-identifying small-scale white (and black) landlords, and even quite a few entrepreneurial blacks doing freelance skilled work. (Although I wouldn't be surprised if some of these landlords and contractors didn't turn out to be just the sort who were secret Trump voters.)

    , @Almost Missouri
    @Sam

    Agree with BucephalusXYZ here. "Predicting gentrification" is actually the easy part, especially since the gentrifiers and predictors are usually the same--or at least mutually connected--people.

    The hard part is the trench-warfare drudgery of evicting/Section8ing/AFFHing away the existing residents and getting the regulatory approval/complaisance to do so. If all the regs were strictly enforced, gentrification would usually be impossible, so it takes a degree of governmental collusion/corruption to get it done. Similarly the ethnic cleansing of the existing residents would normally bring an Eye of Soros-type response to bear, so it can only be accomplished by those enjoying the Dark Lord's indulgence, which is why there are so many left-skewing FIRE actors.

  26. “Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification.” [emphasis mine]

    Steve, another “Bingo!” moment. You gotta wonder, does it really take academics to say what many White folks have pretty much articulated about White flight for decades? They have a legitimate fear of political and economic uncertainty and Black-on-White crime. So they evacuated themselves to the ‘burbs, at a terrific price for many of them. We ought to be seriously talking about offsetting those dubious claims for Black “reparations” with the costs of a great many Whites moving to the ‘burbs.

  27. The arrival of gays is very important to an early-stage gentrifying neighborhood because they actually call the cops and cooperate with law enforcement, allowing some sense of order to start to be established.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Camlost

    There are basically two kinds of guys, with a fair degree of overlap, who will serves as the shock troops of gentrification since they don't have women, much less children: gays and artists and, especially, gay artists.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Jefferson, @Peripatetic commenter

    , @yaqub the mad scientist
    @Camlost

    Any real estater will tell you, gays are the property value indicator that dare not speak its name.

    And don't laugh, in a few years, you could see some think piece about "pinklining"-of certain acronymned groups who are higher up on the progressive stack of potential customers.

    , @BB753
    @Camlost

    Gay couples or gay singles living alone? Or 3 or 4 gays sharing an apartment? What kind of gay shock troops are most effective at gentrification?

    Replies: @BucephalusXYZ, @Triumph104

  28. @Jefferson
    Why does N.W.A Land not have the same charm as Harlem has in the eyes of White Liberals?

    https://youtu.be/7aleRvCrXp4

    Replies: @SFG, @Bill B., @Colleen Pater, @George

    It is perhaps necessary to watch these types of videos once in a while…

    Target audience IQ = 75?

  29. @Jefferson
    Why does N.W.A Land not have the same charm as Harlem has in the eyes of White Liberals?

    https://youtu.be/7aleRvCrXp4

    Replies: @SFG, @Bill B., @Colleen Pater, @George

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION
    Harlem adjoins the most expensive real estate in the world the upper east side of Manhattan. As the city got more and more expensive the places on the periphery of better places gentrified first. The lower east side adjoins the west village.The north half was renamed the east village after it was gentrified the parts of it east and south were also gentrified since they were then bordering the new east village.South of the west village was soho and tribecca they went a little slower because it was an abandonned commercial area, zoning laws and and lack of services slowed it, The upper west side was the land were Death Wish was filmed but eventually it being the west side of central park with riverside park on its other side and its wonderful architecture and cultural and civic infrastructure became irresistible. Brooklyn took a long while because as long as these other places actually in Manhatten. The areas that went first were closest to Manhatten or closest to Brooklyn areas that had not completely succumbed, its ongoing much of Brooklyn is still black but landlords are paying 100k for tenants to go away.

    • Replies: @Kyle McKenna
    @Colleen Pater

    Actually there was no such place as the "West Village" (it was simply Greenwich Village) until real-estate operators came up with "East Village" as an upscale label for the part of the Lower East Side which they were attempting to gentrify.

    Greenwich "Village" actually grew up on the banks of the Hudson in the early 1800s as NYC's first suburb.

    Replies: @Ripple Earthdevil, @Colleen Pater

  30. @Camlost
    The arrival of gays is very important to an early-stage gentrifying neighborhood because they actually call the cops and cooperate with law enforcement, allowing some sense of order to start to be established.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @yaqub the mad scientist, @BB753

    There are basically two kinds of guys, with a fair degree of overlap, who will serves as the shock troops of gentrification since they don’t have women, much less children: gays and artists and, especially, gay artists.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Steve Sailer

    Steve, What other type of "artists" are there?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @Jefferson
    @Steve Sailer

    'There are basically two kinds of guys, with a fair degree of overlap, who will serves as the shock troops of gentrification since they don’t have women, much less children: gays and artists and, especially, gay artists."

    Why are White gay artists who are being priced out of West Hollywood too afraid to gentrify Compton?

    , @Peripatetic commenter
    @Steve Sailer

    Whoa, gay artists as the shock troops of gentrification.

    Would they wear Hugo Boss?

  31. @Steve Sailer
    @BucephalusXYZ

    When I moved to Chicago in 1982, the hottest gentrifying area was the arts district of Superior and Huron ("SuHu") Streets in River North. Artists like to have a lot of space.

    Replies: @pyrrhus, @Mr. Anon, @BucephalusXYZ

    We lived in Chicago Near North on Cleveland at the same time, which was near the boundary of full gentrification. Gentrification has spread continually North and West from the lakefront since then (as well as taking down Cabrini Green to the South), while the rest of Chicago has plateaued (near West side) or collapsed. Except perhaps for Obama’s area in Hyde Park…..But it has reached the point that everyone above working class lives on the North side.

    But this is consistent with what I call the Lakefront Rule, which applies all the way North to the Wisconsin border, and especially in the North Shore communities. Property values are determined by your distance from Lake Michigan, period, and if you live more than about 2 miles from the shoreline, you are regarded as not upper middle class.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @pyrrhus

    There are big advantages to living near Lake Michigan.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @a Newsreader, @pyrrhus

    , @Flip
    @pyrrhus

    I don't know about that. There are lots of very expensive houses in Wicker Park/Bucktown. It is quite a fashionable area these days.

    Replies: @pyrrhus

  32. “But a huge piece of it,” she said, “I think is crime.”

    So a mere 16 years for a fact to travel from iSteve to the NYT. The Sailer -> NYT train is running right on time.

    Of course, when the train arrives, the NYT’s so-called “journalists” immediately garland it with Crimestop and misdirection (“inaccurately believe urban violence is soaring”).

    I’m torn between gladness that a ray of light entered their cave-world, versus wanting to find some way to cash in on their heedlessness…

    • Replies: @snorlax
    @Almost Missouri

    Steve should get more credit, true, but I think some others beat him on this particular insight by a few millennia or so.

  33. @pyrrhus
    @Steve Sailer

    We lived in Chicago Near North on Cleveland at the same time, which was near the boundary of full gentrification. Gentrification has spread continually North and West from the lakefront since then (as well as taking down Cabrini Green to the South), while the rest of Chicago has plateaued (near West side) or collapsed. Except perhaps for Obama's area in Hyde Park.....But it has reached the point that everyone above working class lives on the North side.

    But this is consistent with what I call the Lakefront Rule, which applies all the way North to the Wisconsin border, and especially in the North Shore communities. Property values are determined by your distance from Lake Michigan, period, and if you live more than about 2 miles from the shoreline, you are regarded as not upper middle class.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Flip

    There are big advantages to living near Lake Michigan.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Steve Sailer

    As long as the natives don't decide you need to be driven into the Lake.

    Maybe Obama can broker a two-city solution once he's done fixing Israel.

    , @a Newsreader
    @Steve Sailer

    What are they? Better amenities? Or is it just where the better neighborhoods are?

    , @pyrrhus
    @Steve Sailer

    Having lived about a mile from the lakefront in Wilmette for 30 years, I can't think of any concrete advantages except being closer to the beach.....

  34. “Another end-of-year fact-check, while we’re at it”

    “Fact check” is dog-whistle for “more of that fake news to which our remaining readers bitterly cling”.

  35. @Kyle McKenna

    Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification.
     
    Take note. It's just a 'working paper'. The matter obviously needs to be studied in much greater depth, for a few more decades, before drawing any hasty conclusions. Wouldn't want to go out too far on a limb or anything.

    One angle worth pursuing: what exactly is it about white people which seems to make so many of them averse to violent crime? Can this tendency be addressed somehow? It's obviously racist, like everything else about white people.

    I, for one, welcome our insect overlords, er, I mean courageous academics; and I look forward to more of their daring exploits.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @anonguy

    Kyle, I have three children, all adults, living in Lakewood, Ohio, first suburb west of Cleveland. Rock solid housing for the most part but the fringe, closest to Cleveland is getting edgy (W117 Street is the east border.) A few weeks ago there was a drive by shooting at the gas station at Franklin and W117, which is next to the Dunkin Donuts where I stop to get coffee and donuts. Just previous to that there was an armed robbery and shooting at a car dealer at W117 and the entrance to the I-90.This summer a woman came home to find a vibrant in her apartment and he stabbed her with a screw driver. That was walking distance to my daughters’ apartments. My son has one daughter in private school now and his youngest daughter will follow next year. He is looking to move west to Rocky River, super solid burb . My two daughters are looking to move west also to RR or maybe Avon Lake. You don’t want to be the last one out and you need to beat the housing price rise. My son is a conservative, but my daughters still lean left but are starting to waver. Giant Eagle is closing some stores in Cleveland which means the diverse crowd will be shopping at their Giant Eagle, so they will probably have to shop at Whole Foods or Trader Joe’s or Heinen’s, which means a bigger food bill. They already avoid the Dunkin Donuts, the closest liquor store and the town pool. There, I did the research, so where’s my grant?

    • Agree: Kyle McKenna
    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Buffalo Joe

    I've been living in the first suburb west of Cincinnati for about three years. It's been a surprise. We got a great buy on a solid 1940-built house that needed some work, but had great neighbors, so we thought we'd try it. The elementary school at one end of the street is all black, but well kept up and there's a beautiful almost all white Catholic girls school on the other end of the street. Property values have been going up and some of our hipster friends have moved in to start families.

    The high school where Pete Rose graduated is five minutes away. It's been almost all black since at least the 80s when I grew up on the other side of town. Well kept up, nice new fields, new police station right next to it, and the nicest Walmart I've seen right next to that. The clientele there and at the Krogers next to it is mostly black, but the selection is good, good service, clean etc... a lot like the white suburb I grew up in in the 80s.

    The population is 50-60% white and steady. Working/middle-class strong multi-generational families, mostly Catholics who support their churches and schools and aren't going anywhere. Confident whites seem to have a good influence on blacks.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @AnotherDad

  36. @Steve Sailer
    @Camlost

    There are basically two kinds of guys, with a fair degree of overlap, who will serves as the shock troops of gentrification since they don't have women, much less children: gays and artists and, especially, gay artists.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Jefferson, @Peripatetic commenter

    Steve, What other type of “artists” are there?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Buffalo Joe

    Watch Nick Nolte as an abstract expressionist with hot and cold running starlets in Scorsese's segment of "New York Stories."

  37. @Camlost
    The arrival of gays is very important to an early-stage gentrifying neighborhood because they actually call the cops and cooperate with law enforcement, allowing some sense of order to start to be established.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @yaqub the mad scientist, @BB753

    Any real estater will tell you, gays are the property value indicator that dare not speak its name.

    And don’t laugh, in a few years, you could see some think piece about “pinklining”-of certain acronymned groups who are higher up on the progressive stack of potential customers.

  38. @International Jew
    Gentrification itself obviously reduces crime, just by replacing a high-crime demographic with a low-crime one. So sorting out cause and effect here isn't easy.

    It's like, if I have a sore back and I take an Advil every six hours, then starting with my second Advil, a naive observer might think that I tend to take Advil at times when my back is hurting less.

    Replies: @Forbes

    At what point does the churn of housing turnover become gentrification? Rising rents due to rising demand?

    Having moved to Manhattan 30 years ago, the change in neighborhoods (mothers with baby carriages, rather than moving to the ‘burbs upon pregnancy) was due to a drastic reduction in crime resulting from Giuliani’s policies. In other words, white flight ended, rather than a homesteading reconquista–the Upper East or West Sides weren’t in need of gentrification.

    But NYC was unique (I think) as for many years (’90s) it was responsible for fully one-half of the national reduction in the number of crimes committed, i.e. largest city with a high crime rate became a much lower crime rate city.

    The spillover effect to Harlem, Chelsea, Hell’s Kitchen (renamed Clinton Hill by some), East Village, and the outer boroughs (South Bronx, Bed-Stuy, Brownsville, et al.) resulted.

    Yet, I think most people associate gentrification with a kind of homesteading recoquista–where new housing occupants look at the price/value trade-off, and take a risk.

  39. @Mr. Blank
    Oh, I get it. Racism is determined by direction. If you're running AWAY from high-crime areas, it's Racism. If you're running TOWARD places with low (or falling) crime, it's Gentrification, which is permissible.

    Maybe instead of "white flight," we should call it "gentrifying the countryside."

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @ben tillman

    No, SJWs rage at gentrification. They rage at everything, really.

  40. @Chrisnonymous
    Isn't "gentrification" a microaggression?

    No, seriously. Based as it is on the word "gentry," meaning "people of education and good breeding," doesn't it perfectly fit the definition of something "that has no malicious intent, but that can be interpreted as 'hostile or destructive'?"

    More broadly, why is that when whites move into black neighborhoods, it's gentrification, but when they move out of black neighborhoods, it's white flight? Or, if the market does it, it's gentrification, but if the government does it, it's "building inclusive communities". For AFFH, based on "villein" (a tenant subject to a lord), I submit "villeification/villeify", but I suppose this is too close to "villification/villify" to catch on.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    The concept always confused me. One of my best friends is “Southern gentry”, a Georgian who had a plantation that avoided being broken up, so they have maintained a pretty vast farm to this day, modernizing it as time went on: adding a hanger for the crop duster planes, more tractors and having an increasingly white “redneck” farmhand base. Surprisingly profitable.

    But as far as I can tell, they more or less remain forever in a little town outside of Atlanta, rather than invade cities per se.

  41. Yeesh. 1991 was a long time ago.

    It’s a slight of hand trick to use that as the baseline. Every thing is going to look good compared to that.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @asdf

    They never use 1984, 1985, or 1986 for homicide rates, before crack and after powder cocaine, when homicides weren't particularly high.

    Replies: @Kyle McKenna

  42. @Anon
    Shouldn't gentrification be called denegrification?

    Replies: @Flip, @CK

    When the Cabrini Green housing project in Chicago was being shut down, the tenants put up banners that said “stop ethnic cleansing.” It didn’t do any good though. The land was too valuable to be used for poor people.

  43. @pyrrhus
    @Steve Sailer

    We lived in Chicago Near North on Cleveland at the same time, which was near the boundary of full gentrification. Gentrification has spread continually North and West from the lakefront since then (as well as taking down Cabrini Green to the South), while the rest of Chicago has plateaued (near West side) or collapsed. Except perhaps for Obama's area in Hyde Park.....But it has reached the point that everyone above working class lives on the North side.

    But this is consistent with what I call the Lakefront Rule, which applies all the way North to the Wisconsin border, and especially in the North Shore communities. Property values are determined by your distance from Lake Michigan, period, and if you live more than about 2 miles from the shoreline, you are regarded as not upper middle class.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Flip

    I don’t know about that. There are lots of very expensive houses in Wicker Park/Bucktown. It is quite a fashionable area these days.

    • Replies: @pyrrhus
    @Flip

    So I hear, haven't lived on Chicago's North side for more than 30 years. In the suburbs, however, it is pretty much an ironclad rule.....

  44. Murders in gentrified ares will tic back up, and a second wave of white flight will start.

  45. @Thrasymachus
    >>Hilly neighborhoods, however, are tougher to walk and often don’t even have sidewalks.<<

    Which keeps shiftless youths from shuffling aimlessly around, or swaggering around, or loping around with their heads swiveling, looking for easy targets....

    The safety of gentrified neighborhoods is overstated. (e.g. Seth Rich) Seattle has a lot of crime in gentrified neighborhoods, and I think the same is true other places. SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real.

    Replies: @Jefferson, @Mr. Anon, @biz

    “The safety of gentrified neighborhoods is overstated.”

    Indeed. A lot of gentrified neighborhoods in San Francisco are now reportedly undergoing a wave of petty crime: car break-ins, public intoxication, vandalism, people shooting up heroin in public, sidewalks and other public areas befouled with urine and feces.

  46. @Steve Sailer
    @Camlost

    There are basically two kinds of guys, with a fair degree of overlap, who will serves as the shock troops of gentrification since they don't have women, much less children: gays and artists and, especially, gay artists.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Jefferson, @Peripatetic commenter

    ‘There are basically two kinds of guys, with a fair degree of overlap, who will serves as the shock troops of gentrification since they don’t have women, much less children: gays and artists and, especially, gay artists.”

    Why are White gay artists who are being priced out of West Hollywood too afraid to gentrify Compton?

  47. @Steve Sailer
    @BucephalusXYZ

    When I moved to Chicago in 1982, the hottest gentrifying area was the arts district of Superior and Huron ("SuHu") Streets in River North. Artists like to have a lot of space.

    Replies: @pyrrhus, @Mr. Anon, @BucephalusXYZ

    “When I moved to Chicago in 1982, the hottest gentrifying area was the arts district of Superior and Huron (“SuHu”) Streets in River North. Artists like to have a lot of space.”

    What’s with the Hiragana-like urban abbreviation trend: SuHu, SoHo, NoHo, TriBeCa, etc. It seemed to start in the 90s sometime; I don’t ever recall hearing it before. Back in the 70s, in Frisco, South of Market was called “South of Market” – now it’s called “SoMa”. Is it just laziness?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Mr. Anon

    It starts from Soho -- South of Houston St -- in Manhattan, although maybe that came to New York from London.

    They've been trying to fix up lowly downtown North Hollywood under the name NoHo.

  48. Global homicide: murder rates around the world
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/13/homicide-rates-country-murder-data

    USA is 6 per 100k people

    The Baltics Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are all higher and whiter than the US. What gives? Poland is way smaller.

    Puerto Rico is 18 per 100k, what does that say about the future of Hispanic America? Mexico is 10, while Peru is 3. El Salvador rounds to 60.

    Nigeria claims to be 17, which makes me think there is hope if it is true. Kenya claims to be the same as the US. If you were wondering about Somali immigrants, using Eritrea Ethiopia as a proxy 15-20 or so per 100k is their home country numbers.

    North Africa for example Morocco also seems very small. The aesthetes of Morocco iSteve wrote an article about might be on to something.

    This article about cool young social activists might give a hint as to the next area to be gentrified, rural America. The Oakland Warehouse fire might indicate that the low hanging fruit in gentrification has been picked in Bos NY Philly + SF bay. While Trump might indicate DC will be less lucrative to live in.

    Want to be part of the next wave of activism? Move to rural America
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/russian-hacker-putin-election-alisa-shevchenko

    • Replies: @yaqub the mad scientist
    @George

    "Want to be part of the next wave of activism? Move to rural America."

    Whole chunks of North Carolina have become SWPL'ed already.

    , @anonguy
    @George

    'Global homicide: murder rates around the world

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/13/homicide-rates-country-murder-data"

    What's the deal with the enormous disparity between North and South Korea?

    So much for racial explanations of murder rates and an example of some egregious non-noticing when it doesn't fit the iSteve commenter narrative.

    And why are so many Pacific Islander places like Tonga, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Palau, to name a few I immediately noticed on my first cursory scan of this list.

    So much not to notice if you are solipsistically fixated upon the white v. everyone else thing like a Bull Terrier spinner on his tail.

    Which often has a white tip that catches his attention, interestingly enough.

    Replies: @epebble

  49. Journalists at FAZ are shocked that you go across the border into Czechia and find racists who are concerned about “the demise of the white race.” Maybe the Czechs sense that diversity causes tragic dirt:
    http://motls.blogspot.com/2017/01/its-not-racism-to-favor-domestic-models.html

    The German daily tells us that he was “shocked” by the racism of Czechs, especially those who were worried about the “demise of the white race”. I am sorry but when we look at the attitudes in Germany and demographic changes in much of Western Europe, these concerns seem justified. We’re constantly being shown the conflicts, attacks, but also billboards e.g. in Norway that work hard to suppress the European culture and the white race and spread others.

    An overwhelming majority of Czechs just doesn’t approve of these efforts. Get used to it. What is actually racist is to accuse a whole adjacent nation of racism just because many of its citizens prefer more or less domestic models in flyers. Many Czechs – like me – don’t care about the skin color of models at all but almost all of us agree that each of us has the right to prefer any models we want. None of these widespread things prove racism and it’s offensive – analogous to the Nazi propaganda – if the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes about our nation in this way.

  50. @Jefferson
    Why does N.W.A Land not have the same charm as Harlem has in the eyes of White Liberals?

    https://youtu.be/7aleRvCrXp4

    Replies: @SFG, @Bill B., @Colleen Pater, @George

    Search on: compton gentrification

    I have to testify
    I’m hope’n some hipsters come to Gentrify.

    Word

    Friends Of The People – Gentrify Rap

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    @George

    "Search on: compton gentrification"

    Compton is less than 1 percent White, so there is not any gentrification going on there.

    Replies: @Desiderius

  51. More of a sense of community in hilly areas. In the 60s and 70s the canyons of LA were swarming with counter culture hippies young people musicians etc same in SFO alto the lesser known neighborhoods of SFO became the vortex. The most famous was the Haight Ashbury area near UCSF and Mount Parnassus.

  52. @Anon
    Shouldn't gentrification be called denegrification?

    Replies: @Flip, @CK

    ” denegrification” to long, unwieldy not at all mellifluous … let me suggest brightening or lightening or liberalizing.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @CK

    Denegrigation?

  53. OT:

    Pygmies allegedly killed 15 Bantus, injuring 37, and burning 65 houses.

    This stood out: “In October, 20 people were killed in three days of bloodshed over a tax paid to Bantus on harvesting caterpillars – a staple food for Pygmies.”

    The Pygmies and the Bantus are like the Hatfields and the McCoys.

    http://www.scmp.com/news/world/africa/article/2059856/rampaging-pygmies-kill-15-and-torch-dozens-homes-congo-ethnic#add-comment

    • Replies: @Venator
    @Triumph104

    Nobody likes the taxman.

  54. Something about white folks, we love our hills. It’s deeply appealing to the SWPL brain to be looking down on everyone. In the Bronx where I live, there’s pretty much a direct correlation between income and altitude above mean sea level.

  55. An effective tactic for gentrifying neighborhoods is to locate a part of a city with an existing population of urban homesteaders (artists, gays, musicians) with a few established locally owned businesses, buy and renovate buildings on each side of each street, one street at a time until you take over the entire block, rinse and repeat. The areas adjacent to the newly gentrified block suddenly become less threatening to a new class of neighbors. Random, scattershot gentrification fails because developers underestimate the new neighbors aversion to undertow populations.

    One of the best tricks I saw developers pull was to game the city to remove multiple blocks of town home style projects in North Downtown Denver. I figured this out after making multiple offers at market value on buildings and homes and discovered asking prices 3-5 times over market value. The buy-and-hold strategy was going on years before the city council finally did the deed. It transformed from a NoGo zone in the the late 1990’s into another high rent district by 2005.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    @MarcB

    Please elaborate.

  56. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    “But, but, I had always read that White Flight a half century ago was solely due to racist hallucinations.”

    PC: ‘Racism’ is an hallucination.

    Truth: Race-ism is seeing the truth about racial differences and how they affect society.

    Race-ism is anti-hallucination. It is anti-racism that was hallucinatory in pretending blacks are just whites with dark skin.

    ‘Crime’ is just code-word of fear of black thugs because they are stronger and more aggressive.

  57. @Almost Missouri

    “But a huge piece of it,” she said, “I think is crime.”
     
    So a mere 16 years for a fact to travel from iSteve to the NYT. The Sailer -> NYT train is running right on time.

    Of course, when the train arrives, the NYT's so-called "journalists" immediately garland it with Crimestop and misdirection ("inaccurately believe urban violence is soaring").

    I'm torn between gladness that a ray of light entered their cave-world, versus wanting to find some way to cash in on their heedlessness...

    Replies: @snorlax

    Steve should get more credit, true, but I think some others beat him on this particular insight by a few millennia or so.

  58. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Shouldn’t ‘gentrification’ be called denegrification or de-negro-fication?

    I mean it really comes down to blacks. Most poor folks don’t commit lots of crime. While poor folks do commit more violence than affluent folks, not all poor folks are the same. Blacks are generally more aggressive and rowdy. It is made worse by the fact that they are more muscular and tougher. This makes them arrogant and contemptuous of the weaker races whom they can whup at will… like what happened to Matthew Yglesias.
    It is even made worse(r) by the fact of holy ‘white guilt’ that turned blacks in holy icons. Such Negrophilia means whites are reluctant to deal honestly with the black problem. It also means that even the worst blacks are made to feel a combo of self-righteous rage/hatred at whitey and megalomania as the holy people who suffered more than any other folks that ever be. As blacks are naturally self-aggrandizing, such moral flattery is like adding gasoline to fire.

    For this reason, affluent urbanites don’t wanna be honest. So, they use terms like ‘gentrification’ which sounds so nice. It’s like they just wanna spruce up a city and make it nicer. But it entails removing large amounts of Negroes or at least controlling them through stuff like Stop and Frisk.

    How many ways are there of denegrification?

    1. Homos. Let homos enter a neighborhood, buy up stuff, do fancy stuff, drive out blacks with rising property values and annoying prancy behavior.

    2. Mexicans and other meso-americans. Have them work in menial jobs, hire them over blacks, have them serve as buffers between whites and blacks. That way, blacks will whup browns than whites. Also, since browns are people of color, they can employ ‘racist’ tactics to control the blacks, like in LA.

    3. Section 8. Promise blacks greater integration. Just not with urban whites. Make Negroes integrate with whites in declining small towns and suburbs.

    4. Prison. Move lots of young Negro males into prisons and let them sober up into adulthood before they are released again. The Clinton method in 90s.

    • Replies: @benjaminl
    @Anon

    True. I assume you know Mr. Unz's article on crime.

    We live near (almost adjacent) to a Mexican ghetto. OK, a working-class Mexican area. What that means is: Some level of broperty crime. Burglaries. Break-ins to motor vehicles. Underachieving public schools. Drunk driving. Litter. Graffiti. etc. etc.

    It's not great... but it's tolerable. Once or twice some unlocked item has been stolen out of our front yard. That's about it. It's a net negative... but we don't have any fear for our physical safety or lives. No carjackings, etc.

    Totally different from fear of violent crime.

  59. “eye of soros” should be linked to https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-eye-of-soros/ You are good, man just tighten it up

  60. @Steve Sailer
    @Camlost

    There are basically two kinds of guys, with a fair degree of overlap, who will serves as the shock troops of gentrification since they don't have women, much less children: gays and artists and, especially, gay artists.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @Jefferson, @Peripatetic commenter

    Whoa, gay artists as the shock troops of gentrification.

    Would they wear Hugo Boss?

  61. @Mr. Anon
    @Steve Sailer

    "When I moved to Chicago in 1982, the hottest gentrifying area was the arts district of Superior and Huron (“SuHu”) Streets in River North. Artists like to have a lot of space."

    What's with the Hiragana-like urban abbreviation trend: SuHu, SoHo, NoHo, TriBeCa, etc. It seemed to start in the 90s sometime; I don't ever recall hearing it before. Back in the 70s, in Frisco, South of Market was called "South of Market" - now it's called "SoMa". Is it just laziness?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    It starts from Soho — South of Houston St — in Manhattan, although maybe that came to New York from London.

    They’ve been trying to fix up lowly downtown North Hollywood under the name NoHo.

  62. @Triumph104
    OT:

    Pygmies allegedly killed 15 Bantus, injuring 37, and burning 65 houses.

    This stood out: "In October, 20 people were killed in three days of bloodshed over a tax paid to Bantus on harvesting caterpillars - a staple food for Pygmies."

    The Pygmies and the Bantus are like the Hatfields and the McCoys.

    http://www.scmp.com/news/world/africa/article/2059856/rampaging-pygmies-kill-15-and-torch-dozens-homes-congo-ethnic#add-comment

    Replies: @Venator

    Nobody likes the taxman.

  63. @asdf
    Yeesh. 1991 was a long time ago.

    It's a slight of hand trick to use that as the baseline. Every thing is going to look good compared to that.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    They never use 1984, 1985, or 1986 for homicide rates, before crack and after powder cocaine, when homicides weren’t particularly high.

    • Replies: @Kyle McKenna
    @Steve Sailer

    And they dare not mention the early 1960s, or anytime before that, when violent crime was quite rare.

  64. @Buffalo Joe
    @Steve Sailer

    Steve, What other type of "artists" are there?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    Watch Nick Nolte as an abstract expressionist with hot and cold running starlets in Scorsese’s segment of “New York Stories.”

  65. @George
    Global homicide: murder rates around the world
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/13/homicide-rates-country-murder-data

    USA is 6 per 100k people

    The Baltics Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are all higher and whiter than the US. What gives? Poland is way smaller.

    Puerto Rico is 18 per 100k, what does that say about the future of Hispanic America? Mexico is 10, while Peru is 3. El Salvador rounds to 60.

    Nigeria claims to be 17, which makes me think there is hope if it is true. Kenya claims to be the same as the US. If you were wondering about Somali immigrants, using Eritrea Ethiopia as a proxy 15-20 or so per 100k is their home country numbers.

    North Africa for example Morocco also seems very small. The aesthetes of Morocco iSteve wrote an article about might be on to something.

    This article about cool young social activists might give a hint as to the next area to be gentrified, rural America. The Oakland Warehouse fire might indicate that the low hanging fruit in gentrification has been picked in Bos NY Philly + SF bay. While Trump might indicate DC will be less lucrative to live in.

    Want to be part of the next wave of activism? Move to rural America
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/russian-hacker-putin-election-alisa-shevchenko

    Replies: @yaqub the mad scientist, @anonguy

    “Want to be part of the next wave of activism? Move to rural America.”

    Whole chunks of North Carolina have become SWPL’ed already.

  66. @MarcB
    An effective tactic for gentrifying neighborhoods is to locate a part of a city with an existing population of urban homesteaders (artists, gays, musicians) with a few established locally owned businesses, buy and renovate buildings on each side of each street, one street at a time until you take over the entire block, rinse and repeat. The areas adjacent to the newly gentrified block suddenly become less threatening to a new class of neighbors. Random, scattershot gentrification fails because developers underestimate the new neighbors aversion to undertow populations.

    One of the best tricks I saw developers pull was to game the city to remove multiple blocks of town home style projects in North Downtown Denver. I figured this out after making multiple offers at market value on buildings and homes and discovered asking prices 3-5 times over market value. The buy-and-hold strategy was going on years before the city council finally did the deed. It transformed from a NoGo zone in the the late 1990's into another high rent district by 2005.

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    Please elaborate.

  67. @Olorin
    Steve, do consider creating a Morons of the Mass Media set of trading cards, willya?

    It's hard to remember who is who.


    Emily Badger is a writer based in San Francisco, where she covers national urban policy for The Washington Post. She writes frequently about urban planning, housing, transportation, poverty and inequality -- and why we can't understand any of these topics without considering the others. She's particularly interested in how technology will change the way we move around cities, why the design of cities matters for economic mobility, and what it will mean for all of us to live in an increasingly urban world. In the past, she's also been interested in cul-de-sacs, roadside rest area culture, weird commuting patterns and swaying skyscrapers.
     
    Oh yeah. Her.

    Emily grew up in Chicago, where she first learned to think about architecture, inequality and the value of public transit. She has also lived for various stretches in Portland, Cleveland, Orlando, Tallahassee, Paris, Norfolk, Atlanta and Washington. Along the way, she got a bachelor's in journalism from Northwestern and a master's in nonfiction writing from Johns Hopkins University.
     
    Actually that latter is a lie. According to her resume, she got a Masters of Writing in creative nonfiction.

    http://www.emilybadger.com/resume/


    For someone who spends a lot of time writing about cities, Emily tries to get as far away from them as possible when she’s not working. She loves to camp and hike and has, on the rare occasion, found an excuse to write about that, too.
     
    OK, I'll trade my mid-Aughts Orlando Sentinel sports reporter Emily Badger and Fox-era Megyn Kelly for "suburban mom whore/heroin addict" era Sabrina Rubin Erdely and that Ibo guy who writes for Slate.

    Takers? Hello?

    Replies: @Elf Himself

    Oy. Few prose stylings are as annoying as a bio sketch which, while obviously written by the subject, is nevertheless written in the third person.

  68. @Camlost
    The arrival of gays is very important to an early-stage gentrifying neighborhood because they actually call the cops and cooperate with law enforcement, allowing some sense of order to start to be established.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @yaqub the mad scientist, @BB753

    Gay couples or gay singles living alone? Or 3 or 4 gays sharing an apartment? What kind of gay shock troops are most effective at gentrification?

    • Replies: @BucephalusXYZ
    @BB753

    Probably gay male couples who are more into prettifying run-down houses and less into adopting children who will need to enroll in the public school system.

    , @Triumph104
    @BB753

    The documentary Flag Wars (2003) shows homosexuals gentrifying black Columbus, OH. I remember singles and couples, no groups or families.

  69. @Colleen Pater
    @Jefferson

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION
    Harlem adjoins the most expensive real estate in the world the upper east side of Manhattan. As the city got more and more expensive the places on the periphery of better places gentrified first. The lower east side adjoins the west village.The north half was renamed the east village after it was gentrified the parts of it east and south were also gentrified since they were then bordering the new east village.South of the west village was soho and tribecca they went a little slower because it was an abandonned commercial area, zoning laws and and lack of services slowed it, The upper west side was the land were Death Wish was filmed but eventually it being the west side of central park with riverside park on its other side and its wonderful architecture and cultural and civic infrastructure became irresistible. Brooklyn took a long while because as long as these other places actually in Manhatten. The areas that went first were closest to Manhatten or closest to Brooklyn areas that had not completely succumbed, its ongoing much of Brooklyn is still black but landlords are paying 100k for tenants to go away.

    Replies: @Kyle McKenna

    Actually there was no such place as the “West Village” (it was simply Greenwich Village) until real-estate operators came up with “East Village” as an upscale label for the part of the Lower East Side which they were attempting to gentrify.

    Greenwich “Village” actually grew up on the banks of the Hudson in the early 1800s as NYC’s first suburb.

    • Replies: @Ripple Earthdevil
    @Kyle McKenna

    I always thought that the East Village was above E. Houston St.* which is where the Avenues -- including the lettered avenues that are exclusive to the East Village -- and numbered streets begin. Conversely, the Lower East Side is what's below E. Houston.

    *Pronounced "Howston" in case anyone hasn't heard.

    Replies: @Kyle McKenna

    , @Colleen Pater
    @Kyle McKenna

    ... Ok so times change and things creep into your vocabulary, once the LES became the east village the village had to become the west village. Trust me no one ever actually used that mouthful "Greenwich village" except suburbanites, it was simply called the village.As to this theory about it being a suburb, maybe you should read henry james or something.


    @Ripple

    I always thought that the East Village was above E. Houston St.* which is where the Avenues -- including the lettered avenues that are exclusive to the East Village -- and numbered streets begin. Conversely, the Lower East Side is what's below E. Houston.
    *Pronounced "Howston" in case anyone hasn't heard.

    That is how they are called now, but when i was growing up there it was still one area, despite the fetishization of the jewish experience at the turn of the century the reality is they were simply the last major immigrant group to occupy the area and trust me they had crossed delancy and houston. The jewish theatre district went all the way up to 12 st. as did all of the culture that went on south of delancy.The entire area was in a time warp even through the 60s. I grewq up with horse drawn tinkers, rag and bone men, fruit vendors. stables were ubiquitous until the mid 60s We had eggs milk seltzer, diapers and bread delivered.The puerto ricans drove the jews out with the crime, but puerto rican are not big enough to drive whites out so the hippies and bikers and village overflow began moving in during the late 50s and 60s by which point the place was wrecked
    again because the first area of the entire LES to be retaken from the PRs was closest to the west village it was called east village which meant the village had to get a 'west' added to it. But it also meant what was left of the LES needed a name, most of us still call it LES for a while to this day I still say if asked where i grew up LES, anyway during the interum alphabet cit and LES in spanish [loisada] were tried for the far east above houston or no one bothered to differentiate between the east and west halfs above houston. I suppose at some point LES came to mean south of houston to most people.some have even even broken it up farther nolita and bowery seem to be used cooper union seems to mean something to some and I suppose some argue where the west village starts which is broadway

  70. @Steve Sailer
    @asdf

    They never use 1984, 1985, or 1986 for homicide rates, before crack and after powder cocaine, when homicides weren't particularly high.

    Replies: @Kyle McKenna

    And they dare not mention the early 1960s, or anytime before that, when violent crime was quite rare.

  71. @Buffalo Joe
    @Kyle McKenna

    Kyle, I have three children, all adults, living in Lakewood, Ohio, first suburb west of Cleveland. Rock solid housing for the most part but the fringe, closest to Cleveland is getting edgy (W117 Street is the east border.) A few weeks ago there was a drive by shooting at the gas station at Franklin and W117, which is next to the Dunkin Donuts where I stop to get coffee and donuts. Just previous to that there was an armed robbery and shooting at a car dealer at W117 and the entrance to the I-90.This summer a woman came home to find a vibrant in her apartment and he stabbed her with a screw driver. That was walking distance to my daughters' apartments. My son has one daughter in private school now and his youngest daughter will follow next year. He is looking to move west to Rocky River, super solid burb . My two daughters are looking to move west also to RR or maybe Avon Lake. You don't want to be the last one out and you need to beat the housing price rise. My son is a conservative, but my daughters still lean left but are starting to waver. Giant Eagle is closing some stores in Cleveland which means the diverse crowd will be shopping at their Giant Eagle, so they will probably have to shop at Whole Foods or Trader Joe's or Heinen's, which means a bigger food bill. They already avoid the Dunkin Donuts, the closest liquor store and the town pool. There, I did the research, so where's my grant?

    Replies: @Desiderius

    I’ve been living in the first suburb west of Cincinnati for about three years. It’s been a surprise. We got a great buy on a solid 1940-built house that needed some work, but had great neighbors, so we thought we’d try it. The elementary school at one end of the street is all black, but well kept up and there’s a beautiful almost all white Catholic girls school on the other end of the street. Property values have been going up and some of our hipster friends have moved in to start families.

    The high school where Pete Rose graduated is five minutes away. It’s been almost all black since at least the 80s when I grew up on the other side of town. Well kept up, nice new fields, new police station right next to it, and the nicest Walmart I’ve seen right next to that. The clientele there and at the Krogers next to it is mostly black, but the selection is good, good service, clean etc… a lot like the white suburb I grew up in in the 80s.

    The population is 50-60% white and steady. Working/middle-class strong multi-generational families, mostly Catholics who support their churches and schools and aren’t going anywhere. Confident whites seem to have a good influence on blacks.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Desiderius

    Desi, The value of neighborhood Catholic schools is underrated. They are an oasis for those who want order mixed in with education. The city of Buffalo suffers from the lack of such schools, and I think that is why charter schools were formed.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    , @AnotherDad
    @Desiderius

    "I’ve been living in the first suburb west of Cincinnati for about three years..."
     

    Good luck with it Desiderius. You happen to have landed in the one area of my home town where i've basically never ventured--grew up on the northside, Greenhills. (Even the year i should have ventured into "the Pit", we played Elder in Riverfront--and lost.) (I took my kids back to Cincinnati to see my boyhood home back in '96--before my folks moved out here--but haven't even been back to town at all in 20 years.)

    But my uninformed, 50,000 ft take is that older Cincinnati neighborhoods are fairing better than those in the lake-plain cities, because the hills cut off the ghetto sprawl. And your Western Hills area--especially down in Price Hill--has a much more cohesive Catholic community that as you remarked "isn't going anywhere".

    The problem is the global one--white gentiles are simply not allowed to have their own stuff, not schools, not neighborhoods, not nations.

    If they were allowed to keep blacks out, then those neighborhoods would have been stayed desirable in their own right, fewer whites would have "boiled off" to new suburbs. But i pulled up Great Schools for a few of the elementaries in your area--not great, as you'd expect. Even if the black homeowners are reasonably solid, regression to the mean, plus perhaps raising sisters', brothers' or children's kids means the black kids are less so. The unruliness, disorder, crappy academic performance ... means the package just isn't what white parents want. And i'd imagine the white Protestant families mostly boiled off. Sending your kids to the Catholic school means a big tuition\income hit, which becomes really substantial with a decent family size. That in turn suppresses the high white fertility which would make it possible to sustain such a traditional white community. Educational choice\vouchers could enable these neighborhoods to survive and thrive. But that's not on the horizon.

    It's just standard issue "liberalism"--make the nominal public institutions useless for or hostile to whites, while they have to pay for them and their own dispossession.

    But, your neighborhood is no doubt fairing much better than most. Best of luck with it.

    Replies: @Desiderius

  72. @Steve Sailer
    @pyrrhus

    There are big advantages to living near Lake Michigan.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @a Newsreader, @pyrrhus

    As long as the natives don’t decide you need to be driven into the Lake.

    Maybe Obama can broker a two-city solution once he’s done fixing Israel.

  73. @Kyle McKenna

    Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification.
     
    Take note. It's just a 'working paper'. The matter obviously needs to be studied in much greater depth, for a few more decades, before drawing any hasty conclusions. Wouldn't want to go out too far on a limb or anything.

    One angle worth pursuing: what exactly is it about white people which seems to make so many of them averse to violent crime? Can this tendency be addressed somehow? It's obviously racist, like everything else about white people.

    I, for one, welcome our insect overlords, er, I mean courageous academics; and I look forward to more of their daring exploits.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @anonguy

    One angle worth pursuing: what exactly is it about white people which seems to make so many of them averse to violent crime? Can this tendency be addressed somehow? It’s obviously racist, like everything else about white people.

    Looking like Fake News to me…

    …. because compared to, say, East Asians, you’d have to flip that question, what makes so many white people prone to violent crime.

    And then you’d have to define what it is you mean by white people.

    And then….

    Just goes on and on.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    @anonguy

    "Looking like Fake News to me…

    …. because compared to, say, East Asians, you’d have to flip that question, what makes so many white people prone to violent crime.

    And then you’d have to define what it is you mean by white people.

    And then….

    Just goes on and on."

    Of course "White Hispanics" commit way more crime than Asians because The Nortenos, Surenos, MS-13, The Mexican Mafia, etc are all counted as "White Hispanics" and of course all Islamic terrorist attacks are counted as "White crime" unless they are Somalis.

    But do regular White people still commit more crime than Asians?

  74. @Mr. Blank
    Oh, I get it. Racism is determined by direction. If you're running AWAY from high-crime areas, it's Racism. If you're running TOWARD places with low (or falling) crime, it's Gentrification, which is permissible.

    Maybe instead of "white flight," we should call it "gentrifying the countryside."

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @ben tillman

    Maybe instead of “white flight,” we should call it “gentrifying the countryside.”

    White Flight is a response to Black Attack.

  75. @George
    Global homicide: murder rates around the world
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/13/homicide-rates-country-murder-data

    USA is 6 per 100k people

    The Baltics Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are all higher and whiter than the US. What gives? Poland is way smaller.

    Puerto Rico is 18 per 100k, what does that say about the future of Hispanic America? Mexico is 10, while Peru is 3. El Salvador rounds to 60.

    Nigeria claims to be 17, which makes me think there is hope if it is true. Kenya claims to be the same as the US. If you were wondering about Somali immigrants, using Eritrea Ethiopia as a proxy 15-20 or so per 100k is their home country numbers.

    North Africa for example Morocco also seems very small. The aesthetes of Morocco iSteve wrote an article about might be on to something.

    This article about cool young social activists might give a hint as to the next area to be gentrified, rural America. The Oakland Warehouse fire might indicate that the low hanging fruit in gentrification has been picked in Bos NY Philly + SF bay. While Trump might indicate DC will be less lucrative to live in.

    Want to be part of the next wave of activism? Move to rural America
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/russian-hacker-putin-election-alisa-shevchenko

    Replies: @yaqub the mad scientist, @anonguy

    ‘Global homicide: murder rates around the world

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/13/homicide-rates-country-murder-data&#8221;

    What’s the deal with the enormous disparity between North and South Korea?

    So much for racial explanations of murder rates and an example of some egregious non-noticing when it doesn’t fit the iSteve commenter narrative.

    And why are so many Pacific Islander places like Tonga, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Palau, to name a few I immediately noticed on my first cursory scan of this list.

    So much not to notice if you are solipsistically fixated upon the white v. everyone else thing like a Bull Terrier spinner on his tail.

    Which often has a white tip that catches his attention, interestingly enough.

    • Replies: @epebble
    @anonguy

    As you have observed, this data set is meaningless. For example, Bhutan, a pacifist Buddhist country has 4.3 while Pakistan is 3.6, Afghanistan is 3.4, Bangladesh is 2.3. Nepal is 2.1

    Philippines is 21 while Indonesia is 8.9, Malaysia is 2, Vietnam 3.8,

    I think the table represents quality of data collection and reporting. Obviously, in many countries, not counting homicides fully is the norm. No country benefits by advertising they have a high homicide rate.

    Replies: @Merema

  76. @Kyle McKenna
    @Colleen Pater

    Actually there was no such place as the "West Village" (it was simply Greenwich Village) until real-estate operators came up with "East Village" as an upscale label for the part of the Lower East Side which they were attempting to gentrify.

    Greenwich "Village" actually grew up on the banks of the Hudson in the early 1800s as NYC's first suburb.

    Replies: @Ripple Earthdevil, @Colleen Pater

    I always thought that the East Village was above E. Houston St.* which is where the Avenues — including the lettered avenues that are exclusive to the East Village — and numbered streets begin. Conversely, the Lower East Side is what’s below E. Houston.

    *Pronounced “Howston” in case anyone hasn’t heard.

    • Replies: @Kyle McKenna
    @Ripple Earthdevil

    That's pretty much how it's conceived nowadays. I was speaking from a historical viewpoint, and historically there was no such thing as the "East Village". But real-estate people are forever stretching the boundaries of "better" neighborhoods and Greenwich Village is no exception.

    The pattern of streets is indeed a tipoff to many aspects of historical urban development, as are the names of the streets themselves. Greenwich Street was simply the road from the city of New York which connected it with the village of Greenwich.

    There were originally no numbered streets or avenues in Greenwich Village: the few currently numbered streets were renamed from their original names (where they intersected with the Manhattan street grid), and the two avenues were actually blasted through during the construction of the west side subway lines--a colossal act of urban vandalism whose effects remain even today. Back then there was no such thing as historic preservation, and no one dared stand in the way of "progress".

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ben tillman

  77. @George
    @Jefferson

    Search on: compton gentrification

    I have to testify
    I'm hope'n some hipsters come to Gentrify.

    Word

    Friends Of The People - Gentrify Rap

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxjAZ6utVFY

    Replies: @Jefferson

    “Search on: compton gentrification”

    Compton is less than 1 percent White, so there is not any gentrification going on there.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Jefferson

    I don't get the sense that Compton has many charming down-on-their-luck Victorian mansions waiting for love.

    Replies: @Jefferson

  78. @CK
    @Anon

    " denegrification" to long, unwieldy not at all mellifluous ... let me suggest brightening or lightening or liberalizing.

    Replies: @Anon

    Denegrigation?

  79. @BB753
    @Camlost

    Gay couples or gay singles living alone? Or 3 or 4 gays sharing an apartment? What kind of gay shock troops are most effective at gentrification?

    Replies: @BucephalusXYZ, @Triumph104

    Probably gay male couples who are more into prettifying run-down houses and less into adopting children who will need to enroll in the public school system.

  80. @Sam

    By the way, predicting gentrification should be doable using Big Data, crowdsourcing, keyword analysis of social media, and the like. There are fortunes to be made.
     
    Could this be the elusive way to turn Sailerosphere insights into something marketable?

    Steve has often, complained about the lack of money making opportunities to be made off of this knowledge. Charles Johnson, however has managed to mine Sailer's insights into making money for financial investors. From what I recall he helps investors target companies that start to publicly virtue signal about diversity which is a sign the company is going down. I believe he says that this has been a success.

    I imagine the real estate industry is fairly cynical so perhaps Steve could approach some of them and convince them to sponsor a moneyball type crew for predicting gentrification. All of this would be private to keep out bad publicity. I'm sure Johnson could be solicited as a middleman of some kind since he owes some of his success to Steve.

    I started (((noticing))) things and read the Bell Curve. I legit hid it under my mattress. Steve Sailer was a huge influence. I used to work in a computer lab in high school and I would read him and delete my history lest anyone found out.
     

    https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/4js4s8/i_am_chuck_c_johnson_ama/d3927zn/

    I'm sure Charles Murray could provide for further validation to such a group. Time to cash in.

    Replies: @BucephalusXYZ, @Almost Missouri

    My sense is that many in the real estate industry are already fairly good at predicting gentrification (although risky gambles often ensue). But I don’t think many will trumpet this fact. Interestingly, the people making money from gentrification seem to be not only those involved in institutional real estate, but also many seemingly leftist-identifying small-scale white (and black) landlords, and even quite a few entrepreneurial blacks doing freelance skilled work. (Although I wouldn’t be surprised if some of these landlords and contractors didn’t turn out to be just the sort who were secret Trump voters.)

  81. @Ripple Earthdevil
    @Kyle McKenna

    I always thought that the East Village was above E. Houston St.* which is where the Avenues -- including the lettered avenues that are exclusive to the East Village -- and numbered streets begin. Conversely, the Lower East Side is what's below E. Houston.

    *Pronounced "Howston" in case anyone hasn't heard.

    Replies: @Kyle McKenna

    That’s pretty much how it’s conceived nowadays. I was speaking from a historical viewpoint, and historically there was no such thing as the “East Village”. But real-estate people are forever stretching the boundaries of “better” neighborhoods and Greenwich Village is no exception.

    The pattern of streets is indeed a tipoff to many aspects of historical urban development, as are the names of the streets themselves. Greenwich Street was simply the road from the city of New York which connected it with the village of Greenwich.

    There were originally no numbered streets or avenues in Greenwich Village: the few currently numbered streets were renamed from their original names (where they intersected with the Manhattan street grid), and the two avenues were actually blasted through during the construction of the west side subway lines–a colossal act of urban vandalism whose effects remain even today. Back then there was no such thing as historic preservation, and no one dared stand in the way of “progress”.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Kyle McKenna

    Physically, Greenwich Village has to be the streets set diagonally to Manhattan's NSWE grid.

    Culturally, Greenwich Village has to be wherever it was in 1982 that I ran into Joey Ramone and his mom standing on the corner eating ice cream cones.

    "Joey! I'm your biggest fan," I shouted, which is awfully embarrassing.

    But it was Joey Ramone.

    , @ben tillman
    @Kyle McKenna

    I always laugh when I find myself at the intersection of W. 4th and W. 10th.

  82. @Kyle McKenna
    @Ripple Earthdevil

    That's pretty much how it's conceived nowadays. I was speaking from a historical viewpoint, and historically there was no such thing as the "East Village". But real-estate people are forever stretching the boundaries of "better" neighborhoods and Greenwich Village is no exception.

    The pattern of streets is indeed a tipoff to many aspects of historical urban development, as are the names of the streets themselves. Greenwich Street was simply the road from the city of New York which connected it with the village of Greenwich.

    There were originally no numbered streets or avenues in Greenwich Village: the few currently numbered streets were renamed from their original names (where they intersected with the Manhattan street grid), and the two avenues were actually blasted through during the construction of the west side subway lines--a colossal act of urban vandalism whose effects remain even today. Back then there was no such thing as historic preservation, and no one dared stand in the way of "progress".

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ben tillman

    Physically, Greenwich Village has to be the streets set diagonally to Manhattan’s NSWE grid.

    Culturally, Greenwich Village has to be wherever it was in 1982 that I ran into Joey Ramone and his mom standing on the corner eating ice cream cones.

    “Joey! I’m your biggest fan,” I shouted, which is awfully embarrassing.

    But it was Joey Ramone.

  83. @Thrasymachus
    >>Hilly neighborhoods, however, are tougher to walk and often don’t even have sidewalks.<<

    Which keeps shiftless youths from shuffling aimlessly around, or swaggering around, or loping around with their heads swiveling, looking for easy targets....

    The safety of gentrified neighborhoods is overstated. (e.g. Seth Rich) Seattle has a lot of crime in gentrified neighborhoods, and I think the same is true other places. SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real.

    Replies: @Jefferson, @Mr. Anon, @biz

    SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real.

    There are yuppies, there are SJWs, and there are some people where the two overlap, but their private and public feelings toward the reality of crime are more complicated than you have expressed.

    • Replies: @BucephalusXYZ
    @biz

    This actually strikes me as a great topic for a serious investigation, perhaps a dissertation by someone into sociolinguistics or some such thing. I would distinguish yuppies (if they even still exist as such) from SJWs from SWPLs, and look into how they all respond to gentrification, and actually TALK about it.

    Maybe some grad student is slumming here, wondering if this is really just some "racist" 1488 site. Here's an idea: Maybe you can find an advisor who is very slightly heterodox, maybe not FULLY aligned with the Narrative. (Hint: most of the actually intelligent and knowledgeable ones aren't, even if they don't know where to go with their doubts.) If "Sister Facebook" can write about the "alt-right", maybe you can write on the "contradictions" in the thinking and speech of gentrifiers. Present your proposed research as looking into the "possible" contradictions, as revealed by what "gentrifiers" at different levels actually say in private conversation.

    I know from personal experience that there is much VERY interesting discourse on gentrification from people that overtly proclaim it a verboten topic.

  84. @Steve Sailer
    @pyrrhus

    There are big advantages to living near Lake Michigan.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @a Newsreader, @pyrrhus

    What are they? Better amenities? Or is it just where the better neighborhoods are?

  85. @Desiderius
    @Buffalo Joe

    I've been living in the first suburb west of Cincinnati for about three years. It's been a surprise. We got a great buy on a solid 1940-built house that needed some work, but had great neighbors, so we thought we'd try it. The elementary school at one end of the street is all black, but well kept up and there's a beautiful almost all white Catholic girls school on the other end of the street. Property values have been going up and some of our hipster friends have moved in to start families.

    The high school where Pete Rose graduated is five minutes away. It's been almost all black since at least the 80s when I grew up on the other side of town. Well kept up, nice new fields, new police station right next to it, and the nicest Walmart I've seen right next to that. The clientele there and at the Krogers next to it is mostly black, but the selection is good, good service, clean etc... a lot like the white suburb I grew up in in the 80s.

    The population is 50-60% white and steady. Working/middle-class strong multi-generational families, mostly Catholics who support their churches and schools and aren't going anywhere. Confident whites seem to have a good influence on blacks.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @AnotherDad

    Desi, The value of neighborhood Catholic schools is underrated. They are an oasis for those who want order mixed in with education. The city of Buffalo suffers from the lack of such schools, and I think that is why charter schools were formed.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Buffalo Joe

    The UMC public school where I went growing up has turned out to be the hare to the Catholic School tortoise.

  86. @Jefferson
    @George

    "Search on: compton gentrification"

    Compton is less than 1 percent White, so there is not any gentrification going on there.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    I don’t get the sense that Compton has many charming down-on-their-luck Victorian mansions waiting for love.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    @Desiderius

    "I don’t get the sense that Compton has many charming down-on-their-luck Victorian mansions waiting for love."

    But Compton has many charming all American looking suburban homes which defines the American dream, yet The CPT is still seen as way too scary for the SWPL Portlandia demographic.

  87. @Anon
    Shouldn't 'gentrification' be called denegrification or de-negro-fication?

    I mean it really comes down to blacks. Most poor folks don't commit lots of crime. While poor folks do commit more violence than affluent folks, not all poor folks are the same. Blacks are generally more aggressive and rowdy. It is made worse by the fact that they are more muscular and tougher. This makes them arrogant and contemptuous of the weaker races whom they can whup at will... like what happened to Matthew Yglesias.
    It is even made worse(r) by the fact of holy 'white guilt' that turned blacks in holy icons. Such Negrophilia means whites are reluctant to deal honestly with the black problem. It also means that even the worst blacks are made to feel a combo of self-righteous rage/hatred at whitey and megalomania as the holy people who suffered more than any other folks that ever be. As blacks are naturally self-aggrandizing, such moral flattery is like adding gasoline to fire.

    For this reason, affluent urbanites don't wanna be honest. So, they use terms like 'gentrification' which sounds so nice. It's like they just wanna spruce up a city and make it nicer. But it entails removing large amounts of Negroes or at least controlling them through stuff like Stop and Frisk.

    How many ways are there of denegrification?

    1. Homos. Let homos enter a neighborhood, buy up stuff, do fancy stuff, drive out blacks with rising property values and annoying prancy behavior.

    2. Mexicans and other meso-americans. Have them work in menial jobs, hire them over blacks, have them serve as buffers between whites and blacks. That way, blacks will whup browns than whites. Also, since browns are people of color, they can employ 'racist' tactics to control the blacks, like in LA.

    3. Section 8. Promise blacks greater integration. Just not with urban whites. Make Negroes integrate with whites in declining small towns and suburbs.

    4. Prison. Move lots of young Negro males into prisons and let them sober up into adulthood before they are released again. The Clinton method in 90s.

    Replies: @benjaminl

    True. I assume you know Mr. Unz’s article on crime.

    We live near (almost adjacent) to a Mexican ghetto. OK, a working-class Mexican area. What that means is: Some level of broperty crime. Burglaries. Break-ins to motor vehicles. Underachieving public schools. Drunk driving. Litter. Graffiti. etc. etc.

    It’s not great… but it’s tolerable. Once or twice some unlocked item has been stolen out of our front yard. That’s about it. It’s a net negative… but we don’t have any fear for our physical safety or lives. No carjackings, etc.

    Totally different from fear of violent crime.

  88. Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders.

    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids — and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers — engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos to which they had been relegated. The lack of physical boundaries meant whites had to erect “social” boundaries through threats, intimidation, etc. if they wanted to preserve the whiteness of their neighborhoods. This was particularly pronounced in Detroit and Chicago and central L.A. On the other hand, a city like Pittsburgh, segmented by hills and rivers, also had a large black minority but less racial strife.

    It would also be interesting to study the correlation between suburban street connectivity and the degree of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s and 1970s. Again, my sense is that 1970s’ and 1980s’ suburban street networks display less connectivity in places with a history of racial strife. E.g., St. Paul/Minneapolis suburbs have a better connected street network than Detroit’s. See also the modern suburbs of cities with high black populations (Atlanta, Jackson). I haven’t seen anyone tackle this issue, though.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Chuck

    Very interesting.

    The San Fernando Valley has segmentation on a macro scale -- the Hollywood Hills separate it from the main part of the city.

    But within the Valley it's quite flat and the general street layout is a giant grid. However, some of the later residential developments within the overall grid are quite maze like. I was driving to the house of a successful man who lived in a seemingly downscale section of the Valley with check cashing and bail bonds store fronts on the main streets. But when I finally wound my way to his house at the center of the residential maze of complicated, outsider-repelling streets, it was Leave It to Beaverville.

    Replies: @cthulhu

    , @Kyle McKenna
    @Chuck

    See the work of Jane Jacobs, particularly "Death and Life.." She was a great, pioneering urban-design thinker, and had a lot to say about street grids, street life, and block morphology; particularly how they interact with and influence urban health.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Chuck


    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids — and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers — engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos ...
     
    I'm with Steve excellent comment--i'd say "gold border level"--Chuck.

    I was making the same point about Cincinnati versus the lake-plain cities in response to Desiderius's comment. Pittsburg same topograpy (same river even). I first noticed this comparing Cincinnati to Cleveland--where my undergrad girlfriend lived, who i'd hitchhike up and visit during college breaks. The ghetto fired up on Cleveland's east side and then just ate up the east and SE side of town, stopped only by the bluff rising up on the east. (The low density far east country suburbs are the real barrier.)

    Detroit and Chicago had even less in the way of natural neighborhood barriers.

    Of course none of this means the racial relations are great. Cincinnati had police shooting riots. But it does seem to mean a city is able to save some interior neighborhoods.

    ~~

    These "new urbanists" seem to love grids and connecting streets. I think they suck. I like coherent separated distinct "neighborhoods" that can take on a distinct community feeling. And i like--grew up on and live on--a cul-de-sac. (We have a tight neighborhood and terrific block parties.) I think neighboring streets should all connect directly with trails and bike paths, but i'm perfectly happy to have "can't get through" for cars and local traffic only.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @prosa123

    , @ben tillman
    @Chuck

    Sharp observations, Chuck.

  89. @Buffalo Joe
    @Desiderius

    Desi, The value of neighborhood Catholic schools is underrated. They are an oasis for those who want order mixed in with education. The city of Buffalo suffers from the lack of such schools, and I think that is why charter schools were formed.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    The UMC public school where I went growing up has turned out to be the hare to the Catholic School tortoise.

  90. In the late ’80s, South Miami Beach hadn’t yet gentrified; it was still old, working-class Jewish folks sitting on the front porches of the crumbling Art Deco hotels on Ocean Dr., and high crime from the lingering Marielitos that Jimmy Carter let in from Cuba. By 1990, the change was quick – models, photo shoots, celebrities, Madonna, Versace, trendy hotels, restaurants and bars. I left the area in the late ’90s, but went back for a weekend last summer – many rowdy blacks walking around trying be ballers – they drive over the causeway from Miami and some drop in from out of town. And what appeared to be many black lesbians. Also, many South American, European, and NYC tourists. The place is jumping nearly 24 hours. There have been a couple of shootings on Ocean Dr. in the past few months involving blacks. The local news has been chronicling the down-slide for a couple of years now. But housing and rental costs remain astronomically high.

  91. But didn’t Whites leave the cities in the 50s, 60s’ and 70’s when crime rate was low, and start returning to urban areas in the 80s and 90s when crime was high? At least it seems like that in NYC. Can one say the successful return of Whites to NYC is what began the Great White Return to the cities, and the rise of the White Urban Renaissance. Who better represents this phenomenon than Trump?

    I think White Flight was for a lot of reasons, mainly because the white working class became wealthy enough to leave their close-knot but unattractive urban ethnic enclaves for the greener pastures of the the suburbs. Also the usual difficulties of living with Black people-not so much crime- but the quality of life issues such as loud noise, littering, crass behavior, bad service etc. that everyone finds aggravating.

    White Americans are a gentle, sensitive disciplined people I find, and easily offended or hurt. I am constantly asked by newly arrived immigrants from East Africa why everything is “please” and “thank-you”. I have to remind them to open doors for people, and to smile, and that kids can not fight in America, or be too loud in public. Anyway, my point is that it would not have taken much to drive Whites from the cities.

    I remember the 80s as a time when there were a lot of shows that were based in NYC and other urban areas-Welcome Back Kotter, Taxi, Sesame Street, Baretta, the Jeffersons, Good Times …city life seemed so COOL , so interesting. I think these shows had an impact on kids, and the shows also happen to have a lot of unthreatening black people in them as well. In the 90s’ the propaganda continued with Spike Lee who made Brooklyn almost famous singlehandedly, and than you have the Woody Allen movies of old and Seinfeld.

    All these shows are about white people or black people living cool fun lives in a city.

    The kids as adults are not as put-off by black people as much and in either case they didn’t go back to the smelly crowded tenements of their grandparents-they went back to luxury condos and brownstones.

    I do think Whites have become more comfortable with living with Black and Brown people now as long as they don’t have kids and have to put up with poorly performing schools. Manhattan is filled with so many retiring old people who sold their empty nest homes in Westchester that you sometimes the island is turning into a White retirement community! By the way many projects are in NYC now called NOAC’s or “naturally occurring aging communities”-but I diverge.

    • Replies: @Anonymous Nephew
    @Merema

    "didn’t Whites leave the cities in the 50s, 60s’ and 70′s when crime rate was low"

    Crime was increasing all through the 60s, 70s and 80s,and whites were leaving. Detroit is the real classic here - population halved.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit#Demographics

    Crime rates were relatively low in the 50s. Whites left the cities after the destructive 1960s riots were followed by a huge crime increase that went on until at least the late 1980s. They didn't leave whitopia cities like Seattle and Portland either - they left NY, Chicago, Detroit.

    Look at how many of these riots were 1960s

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:African-American_riots_in_the_United_States

    President GW Bush lived as a child (late 1940s-early 1950s) in Compton, Los Angeles when it was a safe, white suburb. By the 1990s 'Compton' was shorthand for murderous street gangsters.

  92. @Desiderius
    @Buffalo Joe

    I've been living in the first suburb west of Cincinnati for about three years. It's been a surprise. We got a great buy on a solid 1940-built house that needed some work, but had great neighbors, so we thought we'd try it. The elementary school at one end of the street is all black, but well kept up and there's a beautiful almost all white Catholic girls school on the other end of the street. Property values have been going up and some of our hipster friends have moved in to start families.

    The high school where Pete Rose graduated is five minutes away. It's been almost all black since at least the 80s when I grew up on the other side of town. Well kept up, nice new fields, new police station right next to it, and the nicest Walmart I've seen right next to that. The clientele there and at the Krogers next to it is mostly black, but the selection is good, good service, clean etc... a lot like the white suburb I grew up in in the 80s.

    The population is 50-60% white and steady. Working/middle-class strong multi-generational families, mostly Catholics who support their churches and schools and aren't going anywhere. Confident whites seem to have a good influence on blacks.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @AnotherDad

    “I’ve been living in the first suburb west of Cincinnati for about three years…”

    Good luck with it Desiderius. You happen to have landed in the one area of my home town where i’ve basically never ventured–grew up on the northside, Greenhills. (Even the year i should have ventured into “the Pit”, we played Elder in Riverfront–and lost.) (I took my kids back to Cincinnati to see my boyhood home back in ’96–before my folks moved out here–but haven’t even been back to town at all in 20 years.)

    But my uninformed, 50,000 ft take is that older Cincinnati neighborhoods are fairing better than those in the lake-plain cities, because the hills cut off the ghetto sprawl. And your Western Hills area–especially down in Price Hill–has a much more cohesive Catholic community that as you remarked “isn’t going anywhere”.

    The problem is the global one–white gentiles are simply not allowed to have their own stuff, not schools, not neighborhoods, not nations.

    If they were allowed to keep blacks out, then those neighborhoods would have been stayed desirable in their own right, fewer whites would have “boiled off” to new suburbs. But i pulled up Great Schools for a few of the elementaries in your area–not great, as you’d expect. Even if the black homeowners are reasonably solid, regression to the mean, plus perhaps raising sisters’, brothers’ or children’s kids means the black kids are less so. The unruliness, disorder, crappy academic performance … means the package just isn’t what white parents want. And i’d imagine the white Protestant families mostly boiled off. Sending your kids to the Catholic school means a big tuition\income hit, which becomes really substantial with a decent family size. That in turn suppresses the high white fertility which would make it possible to sustain such a traditional white community. Educational choice\vouchers could enable these neighborhoods to survive and thrive. But that’s not on the horizon.

    It’s just standard issue “liberalism”–make the nominal public institutions useless for or hostile to whites, while they have to pay for them and their own dispossession.

    But, your neighborhood is no doubt fairing much better than most. Best of luck with it.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @AnotherDad


    The problem is the global one–white gentiles are simply not allowed to have their own stuff, not schools, not neighborhoods, not nations.
     
    Well, we've been supporting one rentier class or another for over 1,000 years. Danegeld, dindugeld, what's the difference? Cheaper than war. I wonder whether it's some sort of societal-level peacock's tail?
  93. @Steve Sailer
    @pyrrhus

    There are big advantages to living near Lake Michigan.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @a Newsreader, @pyrrhus

    Having lived about a mile from the lakefront in Wilmette for 30 years, I can’t think of any concrete advantages except being closer to the beach…..

  94. @Flip
    @pyrrhus

    I don't know about that. There are lots of very expensive houses in Wicker Park/Bucktown. It is quite a fashionable area these days.

    Replies: @pyrrhus

    So I hear, haven’t lived on Chicago’s North side for more than 30 years. In the suburbs, however, it is pretty much an ironclad rule…..

  95. @Desiderius

    Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders. This seems like a coordination problem that social media could overcome.
     
    Straights inta Compton.

    Well, it's usually gays first until the coast is clear.

    Replies: @Anonymous Nephew, @AnotherDad

    Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders. This seems like a coordination problem that social media could overcome.

    My question: Are there really enough whites to keep gentrification going?

    Ok, LA i get–the weather and Hollyweird keep white flyover country young people showing up there. And the traffic and the Mexification of far suburbs means you can’t really “go to LA” and live in apartment complex in the boonies.

    San Francisco also–silly valley for the nerds and the city for the queers. Ok. California still looms large in the national imagination though the Beach Boys and the its days as a true paradise are long-in-the-tooth or dead. NYC ok. And D.C.–plenty of folks always wanting to get to the imperial capital to tit suck.

    But beyond those four, strikes me that we’re running out of whites to keep it up. What are we at 1.7, 1.8 TFR? And it’s probably 1.5 for college educated women who must hatch the next generation of yuppie gentrifiers. Ok–to be fair–that low fertility itself creates some demand among the never marrying\childless. But then they drop dead without replacement.

    I’ll grant it’s lucrative if you can call it–the tragic-to-magic transition. But i just don’t see it going on and on and on. Demographics.

    Increasingly the future of America looks i think the sprawl suburban shabbiness i see around Orlando–Latin America meets American suburbia.

  96. @Chuck

    Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders.
     
    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids -- and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers -- engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos to which they had been relegated. The lack of physical boundaries meant whites had to erect "social" boundaries through threats, intimidation, etc. if they wanted to preserve the whiteness of their neighborhoods. This was particularly pronounced in Detroit and Chicago and central L.A. On the other hand, a city like Pittsburgh, segmented by hills and rivers, also had a large black minority but less racial strife.

    It would also be interesting to study the correlation between suburban street connectivity and the degree of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s and 1970s. Again, my sense is that 1970s' and 1980s' suburban street networks display less connectivity in places with a history of racial strife. E.g., St. Paul/Minneapolis suburbs have a better connected street network than Detroit's. See also the modern suburbs of cities with high black populations (Atlanta, Jackson). I haven't seen anyone tackle this issue, though.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Kyle McKenna, @AnotherDad, @ben tillman

    Very interesting.

    The San Fernando Valley has segmentation on a macro scale — the Hollywood Hills separate it from the main part of the city.

    But within the Valley it’s quite flat and the general street layout is a giant grid. However, some of the later residential developments within the overall grid are quite maze like. I was driving to the house of a successful man who lived in a seemingly downscale section of the Valley with check cashing and bail bonds store fronts on the main streets. But when I finally wound my way to his house at the center of the residential maze of complicated, outsider-repelling streets, it was Leave It to Beaverville.

    • Replies: @cthulhu
    @Steve Sailer

    Interesting...most of the San Diego metro area north of downtown is a mix of hills and canyons, and is low crime rate, mostly fairly pricey. The modest exceptions are the Mira Mesa / Rancho Penasquitos area immediately north of MCAS Miramar along the I-15 corridor; the northeast parts of Escondido, which is actually pretty flat and gridlike; and the parts of Oceanside which are dominated by enlisted Marines (active and retired). The south and east parts of the San Diego metro area tend to be flatter and more gridlike, and higher crime. It might be related to the proximity to Tijuana also.

  97. @Merema
    But didn't Whites leave the cities in the 50s, 60s' and 70's when crime rate was low, and start returning to urban areas in the 80s and 90s when crime was high? At least it seems like that in NYC. Can one say the successful return of Whites to NYC is what began the Great White Return to the cities, and the rise of the White Urban Renaissance. Who better represents this phenomenon than Trump?

    I think White Flight was for a lot of reasons, mainly because the white working class became wealthy enough to leave their close-knot but unattractive urban ethnic enclaves for the greener pastures of the the suburbs. Also the usual difficulties of living with Black people-not so much crime- but the quality of life issues such as loud noise, littering, crass behavior, bad service etc. that everyone finds aggravating.

    White Americans are a gentle, sensitive disciplined people I find, and easily offended or hurt. I am constantly asked by newly arrived immigrants from East Africa why everything is "please" and "thank-you". I have to remind them to open doors for people, and to smile, and that kids can not fight in America, or be too loud in public. Anyway, my point is that it would not have taken much to drive Whites from the cities.

    I remember the 80s as a time when there were a lot of shows that were based in NYC and other urban areas-Welcome Back Kotter, Taxi, Sesame Street, Baretta, the Jeffersons, Good Times ...city life seemed so COOL , so interesting. I think these shows had an impact on kids, and the shows also happen to have a lot of unthreatening black people in them as well. In the 90s' the propaganda continued with Spike Lee who made Brooklyn almost famous singlehandedly, and than you have the Woody Allen movies of old and Seinfeld.

    All these shows are about white people or black people living cool fun lives in a city.

    The kids as adults are not as put-off by black people as much and in either case they didn't go back to the smelly crowded tenements of their grandparents-they went back to luxury condos and brownstones.

    I do think Whites have become more comfortable with living with Black and Brown people now as long as they don't have kids and have to put up with poorly performing schools. Manhattan is filled with so many retiring old people who sold their empty nest homes in Westchester that you sometimes the island is turning into a White retirement community! By the way many projects are in NYC now called NOAC's or "naturally occurring aging communities"-but I diverge.

    Replies: @Anonymous Nephew

    “didn’t Whites leave the cities in the 50s, 60s’ and 70′s when crime rate was low”

    Crime was increasing all through the 60s, 70s and 80s,and whites were leaving. Detroit is the real classic here – population halved.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit#Demographics

    Crime rates were relatively low in the 50s. Whites left the cities after the destructive 1960s riots were followed by a huge crime increase that went on until at least the late 1980s. They didn’t leave whitopia cities like Seattle and Portland either – they left NY, Chicago, Detroit.

    Look at how many of these riots were 1960s

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:African-American_riots_in_the_United_States

    President GW Bush lived as a child (late 1940s-early 1950s) in Compton, Los Angeles when it was a safe, white suburb. By the 1990s ‘Compton’ was shorthand for murderous street gangsters.

  98. @Kyle McKenna
    @Ripple Earthdevil

    That's pretty much how it's conceived nowadays. I was speaking from a historical viewpoint, and historically there was no such thing as the "East Village". But real-estate people are forever stretching the boundaries of "better" neighborhoods and Greenwich Village is no exception.

    The pattern of streets is indeed a tipoff to many aspects of historical urban development, as are the names of the streets themselves. Greenwich Street was simply the road from the city of New York which connected it with the village of Greenwich.

    There were originally no numbered streets or avenues in Greenwich Village: the few currently numbered streets were renamed from their original names (where they intersected with the Manhattan street grid), and the two avenues were actually blasted through during the construction of the west side subway lines--a colossal act of urban vandalism whose effects remain even today. Back then there was no such thing as historic preservation, and no one dared stand in the way of "progress".

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @ben tillman

    I always laugh when I find myself at the intersection of W. 4th and W. 10th.

    • Agree: Jacobite
  99. @AnotherDad
    @Desiderius

    "I’ve been living in the first suburb west of Cincinnati for about three years..."
     

    Good luck with it Desiderius. You happen to have landed in the one area of my home town where i've basically never ventured--grew up on the northside, Greenhills. (Even the year i should have ventured into "the Pit", we played Elder in Riverfront--and lost.) (I took my kids back to Cincinnati to see my boyhood home back in '96--before my folks moved out here--but haven't even been back to town at all in 20 years.)

    But my uninformed, 50,000 ft take is that older Cincinnati neighborhoods are fairing better than those in the lake-plain cities, because the hills cut off the ghetto sprawl. And your Western Hills area--especially down in Price Hill--has a much more cohesive Catholic community that as you remarked "isn't going anywhere".

    The problem is the global one--white gentiles are simply not allowed to have their own stuff, not schools, not neighborhoods, not nations.

    If they were allowed to keep blacks out, then those neighborhoods would have been stayed desirable in their own right, fewer whites would have "boiled off" to new suburbs. But i pulled up Great Schools for a few of the elementaries in your area--not great, as you'd expect. Even if the black homeowners are reasonably solid, regression to the mean, plus perhaps raising sisters', brothers' or children's kids means the black kids are less so. The unruliness, disorder, crappy academic performance ... means the package just isn't what white parents want. And i'd imagine the white Protestant families mostly boiled off. Sending your kids to the Catholic school means a big tuition\income hit, which becomes really substantial with a decent family size. That in turn suppresses the high white fertility which would make it possible to sustain such a traditional white community. Educational choice\vouchers could enable these neighborhoods to survive and thrive. But that's not on the horizon.

    It's just standard issue "liberalism"--make the nominal public institutions useless for or hostile to whites, while they have to pay for them and their own dispossession.

    But, your neighborhood is no doubt fairing much better than most. Best of luck with it.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    The problem is the global one–white gentiles are simply not allowed to have their own stuff, not schools, not neighborhoods, not nations.

    Well, we’ve been supporting one rentier class or another for over 1,000 years. Danegeld, dindugeld, what’s the difference? Cheaper than war. I wonder whether it’s some sort of societal-level peacock’s tail?

  100. @BB753
    @Camlost

    Gay couples or gay singles living alone? Or 3 or 4 gays sharing an apartment? What kind of gay shock troops are most effective at gentrification?

    Replies: @BucephalusXYZ, @Triumph104

    The documentary Flag Wars (2003) shows homosexuals gentrifying black Columbus, OH. I remember singles and couples, no groups or families.

  101. @Chuck

    Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders.
     
    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids -- and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers -- engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos to which they had been relegated. The lack of physical boundaries meant whites had to erect "social" boundaries through threats, intimidation, etc. if they wanted to preserve the whiteness of their neighborhoods. This was particularly pronounced in Detroit and Chicago and central L.A. On the other hand, a city like Pittsburgh, segmented by hills and rivers, also had a large black minority but less racial strife.

    It would also be interesting to study the correlation between suburban street connectivity and the degree of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s and 1970s. Again, my sense is that 1970s' and 1980s' suburban street networks display less connectivity in places with a history of racial strife. E.g., St. Paul/Minneapolis suburbs have a better connected street network than Detroit's. See also the modern suburbs of cities with high black populations (Atlanta, Jackson). I haven't seen anyone tackle this issue, though.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Kyle McKenna, @AnotherDad, @ben tillman

    See the work of Jane Jacobs, particularly “Death and Life..” She was a great, pioneering urban-design thinker, and had a lot to say about street grids, street life, and block morphology; particularly how they interact with and influence urban health.

  102. @Chuck

    Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders.
     
    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids -- and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers -- engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos to which they had been relegated. The lack of physical boundaries meant whites had to erect "social" boundaries through threats, intimidation, etc. if they wanted to preserve the whiteness of their neighborhoods. This was particularly pronounced in Detroit and Chicago and central L.A. On the other hand, a city like Pittsburgh, segmented by hills and rivers, also had a large black minority but less racial strife.

    It would also be interesting to study the correlation between suburban street connectivity and the degree of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s and 1970s. Again, my sense is that 1970s' and 1980s' suburban street networks display less connectivity in places with a history of racial strife. E.g., St. Paul/Minneapolis suburbs have a better connected street network than Detroit's. See also the modern suburbs of cities with high black populations (Atlanta, Jackson). I haven't seen anyone tackle this issue, though.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Kyle McKenna, @AnotherDad, @ben tillman

    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids — and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers — engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos …

    I’m with Steve excellent comment–i’d say “gold border level”–Chuck.

    I was making the same point about Cincinnati versus the lake-plain cities in response to Desiderius’s comment. Pittsburg same topograpy (same river even). I first noticed this comparing Cincinnati to Cleveland–where my undergrad girlfriend lived, who i’d hitchhike up and visit during college breaks. The ghetto fired up on Cleveland’s east side and then just ate up the east and SE side of town, stopped only by the bluff rising up on the east. (The low density far east country suburbs are the real barrier.)

    Detroit and Chicago had even less in the way of natural neighborhood barriers.

    Of course none of this means the racial relations are great. Cincinnati had police shooting riots. But it does seem to mean a city is able to save some interior neighborhoods.

    ~~

    These “new urbanists” seem to love grids and connecting streets. I think they suck. I like coherent separated distinct “neighborhoods” that can take on a distinct community feeling. And i like–grew up on and live on–a cul-de-sac. (We have a tight neighborhood and terrific block parties.) I think neighboring streets should all connect directly with trails and bike paths, but i’m perfectly happy to have “can’t get through” for cars and local traffic only.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @AnotherDad


    Cincinnati had police shooting riots.
     
    Someone's dropped at least $100 mil on those neighborhoods since the riots. And I'm not even talking about the many neighborhoods that have gentrified. We've got projects that look like high-end condos now.
    , @prosa123
    @AnotherDad

    A rare example of decay being kept in check without natural barriers is in Nassau County, New York. Poor, largely minority Hempstead and rich white Garden City adjoin each other with nothing more than an ordinary two-lane street separating them. Yet despite this seeming vulnerability Hempstead's woes have not spread north into Garden City. What matters is that Garden City is an incorporated municipality rather than being part of a much larger township like most Long Island communities. It has its own zoning rules to restrict multifamily housing, and its own police department that's very good at stopping the influx of urban ills.

    The downside is that property taxes in Garden City are beyond obscene, it's bad enough that Nassau County is run by kleptomaniacs, but residents seem satisfied.

  103. @Desiderius
    @Jefferson

    I don't get the sense that Compton has many charming down-on-their-luck Victorian mansions waiting for love.

    Replies: @Jefferson

    “I don’t get the sense that Compton has many charming down-on-their-luck Victorian mansions waiting for love.”

    But Compton has many charming all American looking suburban homes which defines the American dream, yet The CPT is still seen as way too scary for the SWPL Portlandia demographic.

  104. @AnotherDad
    @Chuck


    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids — and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers — engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos ...
     
    I'm with Steve excellent comment--i'd say "gold border level"--Chuck.

    I was making the same point about Cincinnati versus the lake-plain cities in response to Desiderius's comment. Pittsburg same topograpy (same river even). I first noticed this comparing Cincinnati to Cleveland--where my undergrad girlfriend lived, who i'd hitchhike up and visit during college breaks. The ghetto fired up on Cleveland's east side and then just ate up the east and SE side of town, stopped only by the bluff rising up on the east. (The low density far east country suburbs are the real barrier.)

    Detroit and Chicago had even less in the way of natural neighborhood barriers.

    Of course none of this means the racial relations are great. Cincinnati had police shooting riots. But it does seem to mean a city is able to save some interior neighborhoods.

    ~~

    These "new urbanists" seem to love grids and connecting streets. I think they suck. I like coherent separated distinct "neighborhoods" that can take on a distinct community feeling. And i like--grew up on and live on--a cul-de-sac. (We have a tight neighborhood and terrific block parties.) I think neighboring streets should all connect directly with trails and bike paths, but i'm perfectly happy to have "can't get through" for cars and local traffic only.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @prosa123

    Cincinnati had police shooting riots.

    Someone’s dropped at least $100 mil on those neighborhoods since the riots. And I’m not even talking about the many neighborhoods that have gentrified. We’ve got projects that look like high-end condos now.

  105. @anonguy
    @Kyle McKenna


    One angle worth pursuing: what exactly is it about white people which seems to make so many of them averse to violent crime? Can this tendency be addressed somehow? It’s obviously racist, like everything else about white people.
     
    Looking like Fake News to me...

    .... because compared to, say, East Asians, you'd have to flip that question, what makes so many white people prone to violent crime.

    And then you'd have to define what it is you mean by white people.

    And then....

    Just goes on and on.

    Replies: @Jefferson

    “Looking like Fake News to me…

    …. because compared to, say, East Asians, you’d have to flip that question, what makes so many white people prone to violent crime.

    And then you’d have to define what it is you mean by white people.

    And then….

    Just goes on and on.”

    Of course “White Hispanics” commit way more crime than Asians because The Nortenos, Surenos, MS-13, The Mexican Mafia, etc are all counted as “White Hispanics” and of course all Islamic terrorist attacks are counted as “White crime” unless they are Somalis.

    But do regular White people still commit more crime than Asians?

  106. @Steve Sailer
    @Chuck

    Very interesting.

    The San Fernando Valley has segmentation on a macro scale -- the Hollywood Hills separate it from the main part of the city.

    But within the Valley it's quite flat and the general street layout is a giant grid. However, some of the later residential developments within the overall grid are quite maze like. I was driving to the house of a successful man who lived in a seemingly downscale section of the Valley with check cashing and bail bonds store fronts on the main streets. But when I finally wound my way to his house at the center of the residential maze of complicated, outsider-repelling streets, it was Leave It to Beaverville.

    Replies: @cthulhu

    Interesting…most of the San Diego metro area north of downtown is a mix of hills and canyons, and is low crime rate, mostly fairly pricey. The modest exceptions are the Mira Mesa / Rancho Penasquitos area immediately north of MCAS Miramar along the I-15 corridor; the northeast parts of Escondido, which is actually pretty flat and gridlike; and the parts of Oceanside which are dominated by enlisted Marines (active and retired). The south and east parts of the San Diego metro area tend to be flatter and more gridlike, and higher crime. It might be related to the proximity to Tijuana also.

  107. @biz
    @Thrasymachus


    SJW yuppies have trouble believing black crime is real.
     
    There are yuppies, there are SJWs, and there are some people where the two overlap, but their private and public feelings toward the reality of crime are more complicated than you have expressed.

    Replies: @BucephalusXYZ

    This actually strikes me as a great topic for a serious investigation, perhaps a dissertation by someone into sociolinguistics or some such thing. I would distinguish yuppies (if they even still exist as such) from SJWs from SWPLs, and look into how they all respond to gentrification, and actually TALK about it.

    Maybe some grad student is slumming here, wondering if this is really just some “racist” 1488 site. Here’s an idea: Maybe you can find an advisor who is very slightly heterodox, maybe not FULLY aligned with the Narrative. (Hint: most of the actually intelligent and knowledgeable ones aren’t, even if they don’t know where to go with their doubts.) If “Sister Facebook” can write about the “alt-right”, maybe you can write on the “contradictions” in the thinking and speech of gentrifiers. Present your proposed research as looking into the “possible” contradictions, as revealed by what “gentrifiers” at different levels actually say in private conversation.

    I know from personal experience that there is much VERY interesting discourse on gentrification from people that overtly proclaim it a verboten topic.

  108. @Steve Sailer
    @BucephalusXYZ

    When I moved to Chicago in 1982, the hottest gentrifying area was the arts district of Superior and Huron ("SuHu") Streets in River North. Artists like to have a lot of space.

    Replies: @pyrrhus, @Mr. Anon, @BucephalusXYZ

    Good point. Whatever anyone thinks of their product, “artists” do aim to actually DO stuff (as opposed to surfing the net and whatnot), and you usually need some space to do it. As someone who grew up in a major suburban area, but has subsequently lived in border regions of several 1st and 2nd tier urban cores, one of the things that has surprised me has been how much “space” there is on the urban core fringes (at least in some places).

  109. @AnotherDad
    @Chuck


    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids — and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers — engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos ...
     
    I'm with Steve excellent comment--i'd say "gold border level"--Chuck.

    I was making the same point about Cincinnati versus the lake-plain cities in response to Desiderius's comment. Pittsburg same topograpy (same river even). I first noticed this comparing Cincinnati to Cleveland--where my undergrad girlfriend lived, who i'd hitchhike up and visit during college breaks. The ghetto fired up on Cleveland's east side and then just ate up the east and SE side of town, stopped only by the bluff rising up on the east. (The low density far east country suburbs are the real barrier.)

    Detroit and Chicago had even less in the way of natural neighborhood barriers.

    Of course none of this means the racial relations are great. Cincinnati had police shooting riots. But it does seem to mean a city is able to save some interior neighborhoods.

    ~~

    These "new urbanists" seem to love grids and connecting streets. I think they suck. I like coherent separated distinct "neighborhoods" that can take on a distinct community feeling. And i like--grew up on and live on--a cul-de-sac. (We have a tight neighborhood and terrific block parties.) I think neighboring streets should all connect directly with trails and bike paths, but i'm perfectly happy to have "can't get through" for cars and local traffic only.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @prosa123

    A rare example of decay being kept in check without natural barriers is in Nassau County, New York. Poor, largely minority Hempstead and rich white Garden City adjoin each other with nothing more than an ordinary two-lane street separating them. Yet despite this seeming vulnerability Hempstead’s woes have not spread north into Garden City. What matters is that Garden City is an incorporated municipality rather than being part of a much larger township like most Long Island communities. It has its own zoning rules to restrict multifamily housing, and its own police department that’s very good at stopping the influx of urban ills.

    The downside is that property taxes in Garden City are beyond obscene, it’s bad enough that Nassau County is run by kleptomaniacs, but residents seem satisfied.

  110. @anonguy
    @George

    'Global homicide: murder rates around the world

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/13/homicide-rates-country-murder-data"

    What's the deal with the enormous disparity between North and South Korea?

    So much for racial explanations of murder rates and an example of some egregious non-noticing when it doesn't fit the iSteve commenter narrative.

    And why are so many Pacific Islander places like Tonga, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Palau, to name a few I immediately noticed on my first cursory scan of this list.

    So much not to notice if you are solipsistically fixated upon the white v. everyone else thing like a Bull Terrier spinner on his tail.

    Which often has a white tip that catches his attention, interestingly enough.

    Replies: @epebble

    As you have observed, this data set is meaningless. For example, Bhutan, a pacifist Buddhist country has 4.3 while Pakistan is 3.6, Afghanistan is 3.4, Bangladesh is 2.3. Nepal is 2.1

    Philippines is 21 while Indonesia is 8.9, Malaysia is 2, Vietnam 3.8,

    I think the table represents quality of data collection and reporting. Obviously, in many countries, not counting homicides fully is the norm. No country benefits by advertising they have a high homicide rate.

    • Replies: @Merema
    @epebble

    Muslim countries have much less murders and violent crimes -confirmed by tourists as well. A lot has to do with minimal alcohol drinking, and fear of repurcussions from clans and legal system.

  111. @Chuck

    Los Angeles has lots and lots of flat neighborhoods, but gentrifiers have typically shunned them for a lack of borders.
     
    An understudied phenomenon is the effect of featureless street grids on race relations. My sense from studying Chicago and Detroit is that their vast grids -- and lack of physical boundaries such as rivers -- engendered a lot of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s as blacks expanded out of the ghettos to which they had been relegated. The lack of physical boundaries meant whites had to erect "social" boundaries through threats, intimidation, etc. if they wanted to preserve the whiteness of their neighborhoods. This was particularly pronounced in Detroit and Chicago and central L.A. On the other hand, a city like Pittsburgh, segmented by hills and rivers, also had a large black minority but less racial strife.

    It would also be interesting to study the correlation between suburban street connectivity and the degree of racial strife in the 1950s and 1960s and 1970s. Again, my sense is that 1970s' and 1980s' suburban street networks display less connectivity in places with a history of racial strife. E.g., St. Paul/Minneapolis suburbs have a better connected street network than Detroit's. See also the modern suburbs of cities with high black populations (Atlanta, Jackson). I haven't seen anyone tackle this issue, though.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Kyle McKenna, @AnotherDad, @ben tillman

    Sharp observations, Chuck.

  112. @epebble
    @anonguy

    As you have observed, this data set is meaningless. For example, Bhutan, a pacifist Buddhist country has 4.3 while Pakistan is 3.6, Afghanistan is 3.4, Bangladesh is 2.3. Nepal is 2.1

    Philippines is 21 while Indonesia is 8.9, Malaysia is 2, Vietnam 3.8,

    I think the table represents quality of data collection and reporting. Obviously, in many countries, not counting homicides fully is the norm. No country benefits by advertising they have a high homicide rate.

    Replies: @Merema

    Muslim countries have much less murders and violent crimes -confirmed by tourists as well. A lot has to do with minimal alcohol drinking, and fear of repurcussions from clans and legal system.

  113. @Sam

    By the way, predicting gentrification should be doable using Big Data, crowdsourcing, keyword analysis of social media, and the like. There are fortunes to be made.
     
    Could this be the elusive way to turn Sailerosphere insights into something marketable?

    Steve has often, complained about the lack of money making opportunities to be made off of this knowledge. Charles Johnson, however has managed to mine Sailer's insights into making money for financial investors. From what I recall he helps investors target companies that start to publicly virtue signal about diversity which is a sign the company is going down. I believe he says that this has been a success.

    I imagine the real estate industry is fairly cynical so perhaps Steve could approach some of them and convince them to sponsor a moneyball type crew for predicting gentrification. All of this would be private to keep out bad publicity. I'm sure Johnson could be solicited as a middleman of some kind since he owes some of his success to Steve.

    I started (((noticing))) things and read the Bell Curve. I legit hid it under my mattress. Steve Sailer was a huge influence. I used to work in a computer lab in high school and I would read him and delete my history lest anyone found out.
     

    https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/4js4s8/i_am_chuck_c_johnson_ama/d3927zn/

    I'm sure Charles Murray could provide for further validation to such a group. Time to cash in.

    Replies: @BucephalusXYZ, @Almost Missouri

    Agree with BucephalusXYZ here. “Predicting gentrification” is actually the easy part, especially since the gentrifiers and predictors are usually the same–or at least mutually connected–people.

    The hard part is the trench-warfare drudgery of evicting/Section8ing/AFFHing away the existing residents and getting the regulatory approval/complaisance to do so. If all the regs were strictly enforced, gentrification would usually be impossible, so it takes a degree of governmental collusion/corruption to get it done. Similarly the ethnic cleansing of the existing residents would normally bring an Eye of Soros-type response to bear, so it can only be accomplished by those enjoying the Dark Lord’s indulgence, which is why there are so many left-skewing FIRE actors.

  114. @Kyle McKenna
    @Colleen Pater

    Actually there was no such place as the "West Village" (it was simply Greenwich Village) until real-estate operators came up with "East Village" as an upscale label for the part of the Lower East Side which they were attempting to gentrify.

    Greenwich "Village" actually grew up on the banks of the Hudson in the early 1800s as NYC's first suburb.

    Replies: @Ripple Earthdevil, @Colleen Pater

    … Ok so times change and things creep into your vocabulary, once the LES became the east village the village had to become the west village. Trust me no one ever actually used that mouthful “Greenwich village” except suburbanites, it was simply called the village.As to this theory about it being a suburb, maybe you should read henry james or something.

    @Ripple

    I always thought that the East Village was above E. Houston St.* which is where the Avenues — including the lettered avenues that are exclusive to the East Village — and numbered streets begin. Conversely, the Lower East Side is what’s below E. Houston.
    *Pronounced “Howston” in case anyone hasn’t heard.

    That is how they are called now, but when i was growing up there it was still one area, despite the fetishization of the jewish experience at the turn of the century the reality is they were simply the last major immigrant group to occupy the area and trust me they had crossed delancy and houston. The jewish theatre district went all the way up to 12 st. as did all of the culture that went on south of delancy.The entire area was in a time warp even through the 60s. I grewq up with horse drawn tinkers, rag and bone men, fruit vendors. stables were ubiquitous until the mid 60s We had eggs milk seltzer, diapers and bread delivered.The puerto ricans drove the jews out with the crime, but puerto rican are not big enough to drive whites out so the hippies and bikers and village overflow began moving in during the late 50s and 60s by which point the place was wrecked
    again because the first area of the entire LES to be retaken from the PRs was closest to the west village it was called east village which meant the village had to get a ‘west’ added to it. But it also meant what was left of the LES needed a name, most of us still call it LES for a while to this day I still say if asked where i grew up LES, anyway during the interum alphabet cit and LES in spanish [loisada] were tried for the far east above houston or no one bothered to differentiate between the east and west halfs above houston. I suppose at some point LES came to mean south of houston to most people.some have even even broken it up farther nolita and bowery seem to be used cooper union seems to mean something to some and I suppose some argue where the west village starts which is broadway

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