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Number of Homicides Versus Number of "Black Lives Matter" Articles
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Screenshot 2018-12-08 17.40.47

Here’s a graph of the number of homicides (blue line, left axis) in the U.S. from 2011 to 2018 (with 2018 projected by Jeff Asher in the NYT) versus the number of articles (red line, right axis) in the New York Times that included the phrase “Black Lives Matter” (2018 projected by simple extrapolation). The 23% increase in homicides from 2014 to 2016 coincided with a massive increase in publicity for the phrase/movement “Black Lives Matter.”

Correlation? Yes.

Causation? Maybe.

 
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  1. Did you make this graph, Steve? I do understand your wanting to show a close up of the changes. However, having both y-axes NOT start at 0 is a non-starter (get it?) for me already, as far as graphs go, and here is one starting 3/4 way up with the other starting at 0. The ratios on one curve don’t match the ratios on the other curve. I just don’t like it as a graph.

    Sorry for the criticism, as this is a big pet peeve for me. I have read much from you about the BLM movement and homocides rates in certain big cities. I think the correlation (at the very least) is very obvious, no matter how much the Lyin’ Press hides it or comes up with stupid explanations.

  2. Altai says:

    OT:
    Just a reminder of how important having genetically-related children is.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/12/first-ever-baby-born-uterus-transplanted-after-death

    For the first time, a woman who received a uterus from a deceased donor has successfully given birth—an important milestone for the young field of uterus transplantation, STAT reports. Researchers at the University of São Paulo in São Paulo, Brazil, transplanted the uterus of a 45-year-old woman who had died of a brain hemorrhage into the body of 32-year-old woman with a condition that prevented her from developing the organ. Once it was clear the recipient’s body was not rejecting the organ, a fertilized embryo was placed in the uterus; 36 weeks later she gave birth through a cesarean section to a 2.5-kilogram girl (above), researchers report this week in The Lancet. This is the first time a woman has given birth with a deceased donor’s uterus; some organs from live donors have figured in past births.

    So she had the uterus of a dead woman implanted into her and had a caesarean birth all so she could give birth to her own biological child rather than adopt one.

    I don’t know how easy or hard that is in Brazil or if the woman was very white or German and had trouble finding an ethnically-matching child or infant. If the issue was the former, there’s no way it’s more convoluted than what she did. If it’s the latter then it just enhances my premise.

    It is also isn’t clear for how long the woman knew she was infertile and thus if she had accepted this beforehand. Also unclear how much if any of this she was obliged to pay for or if it was free for being a test subject for experimental surgery.

  3. newrouter says:

    Since the NYT is the national cheer leader megaphone for the rest of the MSM, it would be interesting to plot the homicide rate of Baltimore, Chicago et al vs. BLM stories in the NYT. You could also get a zero for the other y axis to satisfy some readers

  4. Dtbb says:

    I wonder how many vendattas the rising blue line caused and if they are the reason it is falling slower than the red one?

  5. So racists should HOPE for more BLM articles in the press?

  6. You so bad Steve. I’ve never seen someone who can whittle a dog whistle so many different ways with just a Barlow knife.

  7. BenKenobi says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Perhaps 12,000 is the new zero as far as homicides are concerned?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  8. @Achmed E. Newman

    Does the structure of the graph matter when we could simply list the number of murders vs the number of black lives matter references each year? So maybe it’s more a graphic than a graph assuming your observations are correct anyway. Cause I certainly don’t see it.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  9. @miss marple

    You can make a graph anyway you like, of course, but unless it’s a close-up (after having shown the full graph) or a special case like Temp. in F or C on the y-axis (0 doesn’t mean anything special then), y-axes not starting at zero induce interpretation error.

    It’s not like I don’t run into this all the time, but that doesn’t make it right. I often just pick a place on the paper or screen where 0 would be, and picture the curve above that imaginary x-axis.

  10. @BenKenobi

    Didn’t Mayor Lindsey say that?

    j/k

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  11. @Altai

    That indeed entailed a lot of risk for her to have her own baby. Let’s see, cut her open completely and make a whole bunch of connections (I guess wiring, pneumatic, and hydraulic lines, but I’m no thoracic surgeon), and sew her back to recover, hoping the organ works, then let her have sex, then 39 weeks later cut her again in her “special area” to pull out the result.

    Was she just in it as a way to get in the mood for sex? (“I stayed 4 hours in the OR, 2 days in ICU, another week in the hospital, and you tell me you’re tired!? What, you say this hospital gown isn’t sexy? Well, buddy, you better get in the mood right now!” )

    • Replies: @Paul Jolliffe
  12. J.Ross says: • Website
    @newrouter

    This is a good point. This graph is an interesting beginning. If it was augmented with the rest of the lyingpress following the lead of the NYT the correlation would probably be a lot stronger.

  13. @newrouter

    Thank you for your support,

    Bartles and Newman

  14. Anon[334] • Disclaimer says:

    More granularity is needed. A month-by-month treatment of the couple of years when the rise started would help inform the causation.

    By the way, Heather Mac Donald in her new Quillette podcast interview with Jonathan Kay said that she coined the phrase “The Fergusson Effect.” True?

    Edit: She credits it to the Saint Louis police chief, in the WaPo, July 2016:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/07/20/the-ferguson-effect/

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  15. @Altai

    A fertilized embryo was Placed in her uterus … was this child created with another females eggs ? Not clear , but it seems she went thru painful surgery to have a transplanted uterus in order to have another women’s child. She was unable to conceive a child naturally , thus had an embryo implanted into the transplanted uterus.

    It seems strange , but many women who go thru IVF fertility treatments use other women’s eggs to create the implanted embryo…not sure why women are choosing to adopt an embryo rather than just adopt a baby… maybe easier to adopt an embryo since Russia no longer allows Americans to adopt Russian babies.

  16. @Achmed E. Newman

    It’s a perfectly cromulent graph. In the 5 years before the BLM madness the number was between 14000-15500. It then shoots up to over 17000. The scale makes clear that the increase was ~10% but zooming out the y-axis to show the whole range is not important since there are no data outside the range that is displayed.

  17. Anon[425] • Disclaimer says:

    This is ROTFL

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
  18. @Altai

    So she had the uterus of a dead woman implanted into her and had a caesarean birth all so she could give birth to her own biological child rather than adopt one.

    And yet if a dude should suggest that he wants his children to be his own, all the single mothers point and shriek.

  19. It certainly illustrates post-2012 Obama Admin.

  20. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Anon

    [Psst — whoever started it, it looks a hell of a lot better originating with a police chief responsible for the public order and concerned about ginned-up violence than it does coming from a journalist.]

  21. anon[170] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    You don’t have to start each y axis at zero. You just need to start each at the same “norm” point before the two events in question occurred. You could display these as an index, or percent variation from the starting point. Then both lines would start at the same point on the graph.
    I do this all the time in sales reports to compare two events that occur on different scales in terms of their absolute values.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  22. Coincides nicely with the time of the release of “Django.”

    I remember I watched it in a theater with a friend when it first came out. He asked, “how did you like it?” I responded, “I didn’t like it at all.” He thought it was great, and couldn’t believe my response. He asked why. I said, “because it’s gonna get a shitload of black people killed. They’re gonna get pulled over by a cop for whatever reason, and they’re gonna act as if they’re Django getting harrassed by the man. They’ll talk shit to the cop, because they’re morons, and it’ll escalate. Most cops won’t know or care that they’ve been cast as the ever-present antagonist to Django.” My friend said, “oh, you’re overreacting!” I said, “just watch.”

  23. @Kookla Franen Ollie

    I’ve often said Django Unchained has had a bigger impact on identity politics in popular culture than it’s given credit for. This stuff was brewing for decades, of course, but I think it may have been the thing to tip it into the mainstream (along with Trayvon which happened in the year before). It was immediately followed by the black lives matter movement. They’re all part of the same sequence of events.

    • Replies: @Sean
  24. Sean says:
    @TheMediumIsTheMassage

    Django is really about the effeteness of (incestuous) white men and emmasculation of black men. It appears to be based on the 1976 Mandingo sequel Drum. Very popular in black grindhouse cinemas for the scene in which the homosexual owner is castrated by his strong black slave, Drum had everything that was in Django and then some.

  25. Mr. Moser says:

    I don’t think Django or BLM had much to do with the spike. I think the shooting of the cops in Texas was the tipping point for law enforcement around the country to stand down. The correlation and causation of cops no longer giving a shit and blacks going wild is pretty clear.

    Of course, the scum who shoot cops might well be fed by race hatred stemming from Django and BLM, but once the cops saw institutional support for cops doing their jobs had shockingly eroded, they said “bye-bye.”

    There’s no reason this won’t be repeated with a democrat in the white house in 2020 and it is a testament to the fact that cops think of themselves as good guys actually trying to save lives. Anything that jeopardizes that self-image will have catastrophic impact on the most criminally inclined.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
  26. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Kookla Franen Ollie

    There was an observation right after it came out, someone claimed to have heard a black woman exiting the movie declare that white people needed to stay the hell away and keep their mouths shut. Between that and twitter activity there was a clear mood of triumphalism and revenge. Of course, Black Panther didn’t touch this mood, because it was a much more positive and internal fantasy. But looking back on agitprop like I Spit On Your Grave in light of Django I wonder if filmmakers in the seventies wanted to create this sort of mood in women, and it didn’t quite get as far off the ground because they’re women.

  27. @anon

    If you make a graph of indices to norm the values to put on the same y-scale (not really necessary, as I have no problem with this graph’s having 2 different y-scales) you can still start ’em from 0.

    An example with indices from my interest in the housing bubble is a graph I pasted in my blog, shamelessly taken off of a site called seattlebubble. (I just like the way the graphs are interactive on the original site.) I like the graphs, but the y-axis values of this Case-Shiller index still don’t start at 0. It wasn’t my graph, so I left it like that. There’s no reason they shouldn’t start at 0.

    One can make the lowest curve look like it’s crawling along the bottom compared to the rest, when, in fact, they all are the same numbers within 10%. In addition, changes in the values can be amplified to look like “wow, that went up, like triple!” in the brain, while the numbers show a 5% rise.

    Lastly if you representing a variation from the starting point, that would start at 0, but those 1st-derivative plots can be deceiving if you aren’t used to them. That seattlebubble blog I mentioned, due to housing prices being seasonal, shows month-over-month and year-over-year plotted over the time range. You’ve gotta watch how you interpret that. Your 1st glance will always see a different story.

    That’s all I’m getting at.

  28. @Anon

    Dinesh is slowly but surely turning into the Indian character from The Camp of the Saints.

  29. @Achmed E. Newman

    John Hughes had a good take on this 30 years ago:

  30. @Altai

    Aaaaand tranny doing life in prison demands state install dead woman’s uterus (and build bassinet/changing table/playpen/swingset, etc.) in three . . . two . . . one . . .

  31. Wow, that’s a chart worthy of a Climate Scientist.

    BTW, which way are you going with causation? More articles due to more homicides, or more homicides due to more articles? I can kind of discern you leaning toward the former, but I thought I should check.

  32. @newrouter

    The interesting thing is that the murders presumably do not read the NYT, since most murderers are younger men and most young people do not read newspapers.

    So the effect here, if real, shows how mainstream media acts by influencing the people at the top to effect changes that trickle down. Restraining the police is one.

    Interesting.

  33. Corvinus says:

    “Correlation? Yes.”

    The better question, one that perhaps escaped you, is “Weak correlation or strong correlation?”

    “Causation? Maybe.”

    “Maybe”, for your audience, is more yes than no.

  34. loc says:

    Causation. Steve has located the intervening variable–the cops hanging out in the donut shop.

  35. Couldn’t you make this same graph with the entire civil rights movement? That is, the rise in crime and the rise of civil rights protests and marches coincided pretty well. I wonder how the NYT reported on the civil rights movement.

  36. J.Ross says: • Website
    @Mr. Moser

    If we cannot reverse legalized swatting (emergency protection removal orders), legalized mutilation (Bernard Friedman’s wholly incorrect idea that FGM is constitutional because it is religious), and one-sided political repression (antifa can do whatever they like, the police and the courts will wake up and crush only those who presume to defend themselves against antifa), then we need to move to a position of withdrawing support for police and finding nonviolent mechanisms of interference.

  37. Impressive. Maybe the world’s second most important graph.

  38. J1234 says:

    Correlation? Yes.

    Causation? Maybe.

    In the comments for another article I encountered the standard troll theme, “white women can’t resist black men.” Most people (especially black women) understand that black men’s lust for white women is, generally speaking, far far greater than vice versa (though that can exist, too), but the need for self-aggrandizing or morality enhancing mythology seems to be something that many blacks can’t control. The black-lives-matter/homicide relationship is kind of a “No! We’re not murdering YOU! You’re murdering US!” thing.

  39. Anon[425] • Disclaimer says:

    With blacks, things are often the reverse of what they say.

    ‘Bad’ means good, and ‘black lives matter’ means ‘black lives splatter’.

    Let the Big Guns Roar.

  40. This give a, shall we say, darker interpretation of the word “N-gram”.

  41. @Achmed E. Newman

    Didn’t Mayor Lindsey say that?

    Along with “Beame me up, Scottie.”

  42. hamont says:

    Interestingly Toronto is way up on homicides this year compared to the previous year (even including the crazy Incel van guy). There’s a BLM chapter and carding has stopped so maybe that has something to do with it.

    https://homicidecanada.com/10-biggest-canadian-city-homicide-count-homicide-rate-per-100000-and-full-year-2018-projections-updated-december-10th-2018/

  43. anon[117] • Disclaimer says:

    Of course, the alternative theory in most of progressivedom at the moment is that the murder rate had been falling for well over a decade since the early 90s for no reason whatsoever, and certainly no reason correlated with harsher criminal sentencing, and then for no reason whatsoever just randomly shot up a wee 23% over the exact period the democrat party media and Obama’s department of racial payback went full throttle on supporting BLM, and then it began decreasingly randomly for some unknown reason as soon as that all stopped. It’s a mystery. Who’s to say what happened? Random noise of … TWENTY-THREE PERCENT? Sure. Why not?

    Just put your fingers in your ears and chant “correlation does not equal causation” and maybe it will all go away…but then again, doesn’t there have to be some correlation for there to ever be any causation…shouldn’t that sentence include the world “always” after “not”…hey, what are those red dots…

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