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From the Los Angeles Times news section:

California’s coronavirus death toll is way below New York’s. Here’s why
social distancing

By JAMES RAINEY, SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA
APRIL 10, 20205:19 PM

California’s relatively quick action to close businesses and order residents to stay home has tamped down the coronavirus pandemic and left many hospitals largely empty, waiting for a surge that has yet to come. …

By late Friday, California had reported 598 deaths over two and a half months, fewer than New York experienced in a single day Wednesday, when 799 in the Empire State died from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. California has averaged just under 45 deaths per day over the last week, with no spike in fatalities.

New York became the epicenter of the disease in America because of several factors. The virus arrived there earlier than elsewhere and in more locations; it is denser than any other U.S. city; it depends more on public transportation, putting people close to one another;

So Philadelphia is slightly closer to Los Angeles in commuting style than it is to New York.

and it was behind California and Washington state in imposing restrictions on public movement, said Nicholas Jewell, a UC Berkeley biostatistician. …

Seven counties in the greater San Francisco Bay Area ordered residents to “shelter in place” and all but essential businesses to close at midnight on March 16, a day when the number of coronavirus deaths in California doubled from six to 12. Three days later, Gov. Gavin Newsom extended the order to the entire state, with the total death toll at just 19.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo made a similar order on March 20, but it did not take effect until Sunday, March 22, at 8 p.m. By then, his state already had recorded at least 150 deaths. That action still preceded lockdowns across much of the nation. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis didn’t impose a stay-at-home order until April 1.

Of course, Florida still isn’t terribly hard hit.

The state’s most populous county, Los Angeles, continued to record the biggest share of fatalities, with a total of 244 as of Friday. But the average of 22 deaths-per-day over the previous week included no notable spikes. …

The early action appeared evident in the empty hallways and wards of hospitals around California.

Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center in Westwood

This is a modern billion dollar hospital that opened in 2008. The downside is it only has 550 beds for its one million square feet of floorspace.

has been has been unusually quiet, said an attending physician, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. Patients have been admitted, but few.

“It’s almost like ominous,” he said. “The volume has been the lowest it’s been ever.”

There are currently 41 COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital, a figure that appears to have plateaued in recent days, according to the university’s dashboard. The doctor said they are encouraged by the state numbers, but remain anxious.

“Are we just waiting for the peak?” he asked. There had been a “high panic” about a month ago, as doctors and nurses watched television news accounts of overflowing wards in Italy, said the UCLA physician, adding: “Now it’s more like being scared to admit a little bit of confidence, maybe telling everyone … we’ve actually achieved something. We won’t admit to ourselves that we’re out of the woods immediately, until late May.”

By the way, the weather in L.A. has been cool and rainy for the last month, which is nice because now we probably won’t have many brushfires until July or later. But the rain has played havoc with my new Vitamin D fetish.

Smart-thermometer maker Kinsa Health showed that on April 9 just 0.3% of Los Angeles County residents had fevers, as associated with both common flu and the coronavirus, compared with an expected 3.2% for that date.

 
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  1. The two things New York didn’t have and couldn’t get were space (which California has in abundance, even in its cities) and the medical supplies recommended by a committee but deferred by Michael because at the time they didn’t seem necessary. To Michael’s credit he has joined his president in calling out the terrorist-led China-defending WHO for originally giving backwards advice.

    • Replies: @Gary in Gramercy
    "Michael"? I assume you're referring to the NY governor whose younger brother is Fredo. Here he is at a press conference, explaining the first, and most important, rule of The Cuomo Lockdown:

    "No one can call my brother Fredo but me. Understand? I can call him Fredo anytime I want. Everybody else has to call him 'Chris,' or 'Christopher,' but not 'Fredo.' That's only for me, because he's my little brother, and honestly, if you want to know the truth, he's kind of retarded. Pop always used to wonder about him, and about Ma too, sometimes, 'cause the rest of us have Pop's brains, but no, Ma is a saint! Forget I said that! Off the record, off the record! Don't print that. Not if you know what's good for you. You think I can't shut down that shiny new building of yours at 620 Eighth Avenue in New York City? Or 'repurpose' it for the current emergency? Bellevue called this morning: they're running out of beds..."
    , @anonymous
    Call him Cuomo II to avoid confusion. He runs the state just like his old man did.
    , @By-tor
    The CDC- Big Pharma's vaccine distribution agency- revised the flu death counting protocol to make sure the count in dysfunctional NYC went up as people watched in horror on the CNN. the Cuomo News Network. Our overlords hyped a so-called 'pandemic' as a cover for their debt bubble implosion.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/whistleblower-how-cdc-manipulating-covid-19-death-toll

    Event 201 run by the vaccine fetishists of the Gates Foundation ( Dr. Leah Birx is a member ) and Johns-Hopkins ( Dr. Anthony Fauci ) last Oct. 2019 at a 'World Economic Forum' event gamed out what we are living through right now. The exercise was evidently modeled on the movie 'Contagion'.

    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

    https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/04/bill-gates-psychopathology-we-dont-want-a-lot-of-recovered-people-reason-behind-the-lock-downs/

    https://www.sott.net/article/432171-Bill-Gates-Obsession-With-Vaccines

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/04/07/the-coronavirus-encounters-of-an-average-american-nobody/#more-215807

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/485497-federal-reserve-junk-bonds/

  2. Truth, I (and many others) think the whole matter is a farce, an hysterical over-reaction. Time may tell.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Speaking of over-reactions, the Theodore Roosevelt's (CVN-71) crew have been tested for COVID-19, with 416 positive cases and 3,170 negative results. Of those that tested positive, 187 were symptomatic and 229 were asymptomatic. It was for this that Capt. Cozier ... did what he did.
    , @The Germ Theory of Disease
    "an hysterical over-reaction"

    Actually it has been a calculated, deliberate over-reaction: a manufactured hysteria designed to create a chaos and a crisis which would not have existed otherwise.

    Look at the whole thing like a chess problem:

    Throughout Dec/Jan there was little coverage of the Wuhan situation, and both Dem Government and Dem Media Machine were focused with laser-like intensity on the incredibly pressing issue of whether the President said something mean to some guy in Ukraine during a phone call. Go back through the voluminous Dem presidential debates with the original Broadway cast of the Banana Splits, and try to find how many Democrat wizards asked far-reaching questions about Wuhan virus.

    When Trump closed off travel from China at end of Jan, the Dems howled Racist Nazi like trained seals. Dems howl racist Nazi at Trump 24/7 no matter what. If Trump had rolled out social distancing practice and crashed the economy in Feb, Dems would have howled racist evil authoritarian without evidence Nazi, defied social distancing as a matter of Resistance! and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.

    IOW there was no practical window for Trump to take effective measures before he actually did so.

    But even that doesn't matter because there was never a national crisis, as we are seeing now: just a rather nastier than usual flu bug which culls the weak mostly. The MSM had a variety of ways to play the story, best practice would have been, Whoa it's nasty out there this winter everyone! Wash your hands a lot, cover your face in public, and steer clear of vulnerable relatives or else take rational precautions.

    But no. It was the MSM's simultaneous, unanimous, full-court press decision to go completely hysterical which caused the hysteria. Why did they do this?

    -- Russiagate nonsense did not work.
    -- Impeachment nonsense did not work.
    -- in a field of 20 candidates, with a full three years to prepare, not a single compelling voice.
    -- Dem choice is between Commie Larry David and a dribbling dementia patient with a crooked and undistinguished past.

    This was a Hail Mary pass, pure and simple.

    Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites.
    , @ziggurat

    Truth, I (and many others) think the whole matter is a farce, an hysterical over-reaction. Time may tell.
     
    I think Scott Adams is right, when he says that time will not tell.

    If the outcome is low in severity, then both sides will say they were right:
    1) The severity was low, because of the tough measures.
    2) The severity was low, because this was a hysterical over-reaction.

    Indeed, both sides will be more certain they were correct, and they will have more data to back up their point of view.
  3. After this is over, how many knowing assertions are going to end up re-emphasizing ‘correlation is not causation’?

    Anyway, here’s a picture of Gavin’s covid19 model for CA. Note the dots for actual hospitalizations, and how they barely track along the very bottom of the ginormous predicted range.

    • Thanks: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    So...... when will the eighth-grade mathletes like Ron Unz acknowledge the coronahoax never ever even for five minutes went exponential?
  4. So Philadelphia is slightly closer to Los Angeles in commuting style than it is to New York.

    And carpooling and HOV lanes are a complete fraud. Everybody drives alone, everywhere. Period.

    We can finally admit it now.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Natural gas and propane vehicles should be allowed HOV lane access.
  5. “But the rain has played havoc with my new Vitamin D fetish.”
    Huh? Are you saying you just miss the sun or something more, or other?

  6. This seems like straightforward propaganda aimed at getting Californians to continue to accept shelter orders without complaint, while simultaneously acting as support for the recent hagiographies in the news I’ve seen of various local public health officers. For the Bay Area core counties, 7 million strong, at least the data is consistent with your previous entry on subways: most of the Bay Area is like San Jose when it comes to commuting. San Francisco is little more than 10 percent of the region’s population, and an outlier. San Jose and all of Santa Clara County, Alameda County, Contra Costa County, and most of San Mateo County are literally like Southern cities when it comes to transportation, and living is pretty spread out.

    Yet New York City is strangely seen as comparable to here, and without the strong expertise and foresight of our health officers social distancing our ass a whole two days before NYC, we would have undoubtedly suffered the same fate. It’s complete nonsense of course, and plenty of Southern states — there’s a lot more than Louisiana out there — will end up fine, with a per capita Wuhan virus death count comparable to California, and with more lackadaisical approaches to shelter orders.

    I agree with much — but certainly not all — of the shelter order actions where I live. But this attempt at self congratulation without a rigorous look on perhaps maybe our conditions, and not our decision makers, is what made the difference, is pretty pathetic.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Heartiste coined a great term for this malicious behavior by elected officials:

    Noblesse malice
    , @GeologyAnon Mk 2
    I doubt most of the involved, 4D chess style conspiracy theories about why this or that or the other national trend of major event occurred. The more people necessary to make a conspiracy work, the less likely it is to ever come off. I pin that critical number at around 50 people, which is the most a charismatic and intelligent leader can personally and directly manage under extremely high stress and absolute operational security. There is a reason that is the upper limit for platoon size... pretty much throughout all of military history, predating the Legions, even.

    So stuff that can be carried off like the terrorist attacks in NYC 20 years ago? Yeah, conspiracy. Of about 50 guys directly operationally involved. The idea that a bunch of room-temperature IQ G-men came together in their hundreds or thousands to pull off some kind of simultaneous plane crash/controlled detonation/cover up type thing is way less plausible because you have blown that 50 men critical limit way out the window.

    So I don't think this was a big conspiracy like that in terms of the USA trying to condition people one way or another. It is just that the first instinct of a 'soft' oligarchy like ours is to oppress and restrict personal freedoms. Especially when the threat vector is so non-discriminating as a virus. I've noticed people of a certain tribe are far more concerned about virulence than those of the others, for interesting psychosocial reasons.

    Still, the entire fuck up shows how little the Boomers and Silents care for the younger generations, who they have completely fucked over already. Another entire Iraq war worth of spending because they elderly couldn't bear to be quarantined while the young and hale went about their business with a mask and some hand sanitizer. The taxes that repay this debt (I kid...) should be levied exclusively from the senior class.

    Also-- why wasn't there a a big, WW2 style manufacturing effort to just pump out a shit-ton of those anti-viral UV lights? Have them installed everywhere, pulse them on for one minute out of ten on any florescent lighted building in America. It kills 98% of exposed bacteria and ruins the RNA of Viruses within 10s exposure. Just mandate them as the new federal building code, and order mass production. Certainly would not have cost 6 Trillion dollars, and would have protected us from future pandemics as well. People could just wear sunscreen if they were afraid of the radiation, frankly they should be anyway.
  7. @J.Ross
    The two things New York didn't have and couldn't get were space (which California has in abundance, even in its cities) and the medical supplies recommended by a committee but deferred by Michael because at the time they didn't seem necessary. To Michael's credit he has joined his president in calling out the terrorist-led China-defending WHO for originally giving backwards advice.

    “Michael”? I assume you’re referring to the NY governor whose younger brother is Fredo. Here he is at a press conference, explaining the first, and most important, rule of The Cuomo Lockdown:

    “No one can call my brother Fredo but me. Understand? I can call him Fredo anytime I want. Everybody else has to call him ‘Chris,’ or ‘Christopher,’ but not ‘Fredo.’ That’s only for me, because he’s my little brother, and honestly, if you want to know the truth, he’s kind of retarded. Pop always used to wonder about him, and about Ma too, sometimes, ’cause the rest of us have Pop’s brains, but no, Ma is a saint! Forget I said that! Off the record, off the record! Don’t print that. Not if you know what’s good for you. You think I can’t shut down that shiny new building of yours at 620 Eighth Avenue in New York City? Or ‘repurpose’ it for the current emergency? Bellevue called this morning: they’re running out of beds…”

    • LOL: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Bruno
    NYT building 😊
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Gary, Too funny. Google "Chris Cuomo's sickening interviews of Andrew-NY Post." Chris actually says on air that the country is learning to love Andrew like he does. Gag worthy.
  8. Anonymous[119] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel H
    Truth, I (and many others) think the whole matter is a farce, an hysterical over-reaction. Time may tell.

    Speaking of over-reactions, the Theodore Roosevelt’s (CVN-71) crew have been tested for COVID-19, with 416 positive cases and 3,170 negative results. Of those that tested positive, 187 were symptomatic and 229 were asymptomatic. It was for this that Capt. Cozier … did what he did.

    • Replies: @Hail
    The expected number of deaths for people in the age-and-condition profile of active navy sailors, even if the virus spread completely freely aboard a vessel of that size, is 0 (zero).
  9. Coronavirus Fact not Fear – Government Killer

    the government had access to clear data demonstrating that long before the declaration of UK lockdown and even at the time of the Prime Minister’s March 3rd broadcast, the data showed that Italy, Germany, Sweden and the UK were all decelerating, levelling off, and then falling away in terms of the rate of growth of the contagion. The crisis was over though the contagion would continue until exhausted. It is as inevitable as a ball thrown into the air, slowing down, and coming back to earth.

    The PDF of this video is here: https://peerlessreads.s3.us-east-2.am…

  10. @Gary in Gramercy
    "Michael"? I assume you're referring to the NY governor whose younger brother is Fredo. Here he is at a press conference, explaining the first, and most important, rule of The Cuomo Lockdown:

    "No one can call my brother Fredo but me. Understand? I can call him Fredo anytime I want. Everybody else has to call him 'Chris,' or 'Christopher,' but not 'Fredo.' That's only for me, because he's my little brother, and honestly, if you want to know the truth, he's kind of retarded. Pop always used to wonder about him, and about Ma too, sometimes, 'cause the rest of us have Pop's brains, but no, Ma is a saint! Forget I said that! Off the record, off the record! Don't print that. Not if you know what's good for you. You think I can't shut down that shiny new building of yours at 620 Eighth Avenue in New York City? Or 'repurpose' it for the current emergency? Bellevue called this morning: they're running out of beds..."

    NYT building 😊

  11. Simulations of how many less deaths would occur in NYC if the countermeasures were implemented 1 day, 2 days, 3 days,… should be done. Only then we could look at other factors responsible for the difference between California and NY. I think that the population density and the mode of transportation account for different unconstrained by countermeasures value of R0 in the two states.

    A rudimentary simulation should not be that difficult. We have NY daily deaths function that shows very fast growth early with 3 day doubling period and then the effects of the countermeasures slow down the rate of growth that leads to the inflection point after which the curve becomes concave. By shifting and scaling the function one may get the estimate of number of deaths if the countermeasure in NY were introduced ∆d days sooner.

    It has been reported that California and NY may have different virus strains. Is it possible that California has the less aggressive strain?

    Coronavirus: aggressive ‘L type’ strain affecting 70 per cent of cases
    https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-aggressive-l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/

    How America was hit with COVID-19 from two continents: Majority of cases in US epicenter New York came from Europe – but a DIFFERENT strain spread from China to the West Coast, genome studies reveal
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8206625/America-hit-COVID-19-two-continents-studies-suggest.html

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    It could be that there is a more dangerous Italian version that is more prevalent in New York than in California. Besides tourism, the fashion industry has a lot of people going back and forth between New York and Milan on business trips (although, in the umpteenth puzzling aspect of this story, Milan, unlike New York City, wasn't too badly off compared to the small towns east of Milan).
    , @Travis
    good point.

    You would also need to adjust for the demographics of New York verse California.
    New Yorkers are more elderly than California. The percentage of New Yorkers over the age of 60 is 25% compared to 20% in California. The average age in California is 36 and 40 in New York State.

    New York has 3 times the number of Blacks compared to California. (7% verse 20%)
    New York Hispanics are mostly mulatto Puerto Ricans and Dominicans.
    12% of New Yorkers are Dominican or Puerto Rican while less than 1% in California are.

    New Yorkers are more likely to have vitamin D deficiencies in March, due to the harsher climate of New York. The weather in New York results in people spending more time indoors in close proximity to other people. New Yorkers spend much more time inside , breathing in dry heated air during March and April. Currently the Temperature in NYC is 36 degrees, was below freezing last night. While California has nice warm weather , thus more people outside getting vitamin D.

    In every state the hardest hit are the elderly and Blacks. Thus we would expect New York to have more deaths from CV than California based on Demographics and density.

    Even if NYC started the lockdown a few days earlier, like California, we would expect the New York to suffer many more deaths due to the different demographics in New York verse California.
  12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_issues_in_New_York_City#Air_pollution

    “But the rain has played havoc with my new Vitamin D fetish.”

    They will be rolling their eyes in ER when you turn up with jaundice having ODed. You presumably want to give yourself the optimal vitamin D boost. This can be accomplished by gently dieting. It is stored in fat and liberated into the blood when fat breaks down. In California noon daylight you will stop making vitamin D win 5 to 20 minutes in the exposed skin because there is a mechanism by which skin ceases to make D from UVB (yes, in white folk too) to stop overdose. The sun gives you a LOT.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autophagy#Xenophagy
    In disease, autophagy has been seen as an adaptive response to stress, promoting survival of the cell; In microbiology, xenophagy is the autophagic degradation of infectious particles. Cellular autophagic machinery also play an important role in innate immunity. Intracellular pathogens, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis (the bacterium which is responsible for tuberculosis) are targeted for degradation by the same cellular machinery and regulatory mechanisms … Stimulation of autophagy in infected cells can help overcome this phenomenon, restoring pathogen degradation.

    When fighting an infection an animal is off its food and resting. They also complain about the weather.

  13. anon[394] • Disclaimer says:

    Check the math you sub 220 IQ dummies. My spreadsheet says this Virus is going exponential . Expo fucking nential !
    According to my calculations, we are on target for One Hundred Million deaths worldwide, with one Million deaths in America.
    Sure, I’m fine here in my modest house with my Mexican housekeeper and chef, and those short guys who maintain my estate, but you other Americans may need to shelter in place until I say.
    Regards,
    R. Unz.

    • LOL: Bragadocious
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    They waved exponential numbers in front of the digirati. "Finally, a chance to show the power of numbers and demonstrate to the benighted what they have been missing."

    I'm not going to doubt Ron's sincerity. The numbers based on the bad data we had really did look horrible. But we have learned more and their response isn't scientific, to change policies when the facts change, but rather to dig in. That's politics, not science: who are you gonna believe, me or the actual facts on the ground?

    NYC has suffered excess deaths from this thing. We will see if the annual total goes outside of previous years', or if the April killing fields just represent deaths moved forward. NYC has also suffered unquestioned economic shock from this, and in a way that will set off a catabolic cycle. That shock is going to kill... how many people? Were those dead from economic collapse included in the original models (time to check the University College London model closely)? Ignoring second-order effects, as the rush to shutdown people did, is an exercise in bad modeling. I hope someone is held to account for it.
    , @The JW

    my Mexican housekeeper and chef, and those short guys who maintain my estate,
     
    All essential workers. Our Brave New World is here.
  14. @utu
    Simulations of how many less deaths would occur in NYC if the countermeasures were implemented 1 day, 2 days, 3 days,... should be done. Only then we could look at other factors responsible for the difference between California and NY. I think that the population density and the mode of transportation account for different unconstrained by countermeasures value of R0 in the two states.

    A rudimentary simulation should not be that difficult. We have NY daily deaths function that shows very fast growth early with 3 day doubling period and then the effects of the countermeasures slow down the rate of growth that leads to the inflection point after which the curve becomes concave. By shifting and scaling the function one may get the estimate of number of deaths if the countermeasure in NY were introduced ∆d days sooner.

    It has been reported that California and NY may have different virus strains. Is it possible that California has the less aggressive strain?

    Coronavirus: aggressive ‘L type’ strain affecting 70 per cent of cases
    https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-aggressive-l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/

    How America was hit with COVID-19 from two continents: Majority of cases in US epicenter New York came from Europe – but a DIFFERENT strain spread from China to the West Coast, genome studies reveal
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8206625/America-hit-COVID-19-two-continents-studies-suggest.html

    It could be that there is a more dangerous Italian version that is more prevalent in New York than in California. Besides tourism, the fashion industry has a lot of people going back and forth between New York and Milan on business trips (although, in the umpteenth puzzling aspect of this story, Milan, unlike New York City, wasn’t too badly off compared to the small towns east of Milan).

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    Milan largely escaped the Black Death too.
    , @S. Anonyia
    I think that's possible. Also the worse version may have somehow reached Michigan and Louisiana, which also have high death rates. Obvious how it could get to New Orleans, not really clear why Michigan, as there isn't much travel between Italy/Michigan...maybe Iraqis/Iranians brought it back to metro Detroit after visiting relatives or going on a religious pilgrimage?

    Another factor in NY vs. California.....population density may make the viral load worse. Maybe quarantining people in their old apartments with old ventilation systems does little good?

    , @res

    It could be that there is a more dangerous Italian version that is more prevalent in New York than in California.
     
    It has been established that the dominant strains in New York and California are different. NY mostly got it from Europe, CA mostly from Asia. Thanks to utu for pointing me to this article:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8206625/America-hit-COVID-19-two-continents-studies-suggest.html

    Here is one site they referenced. https://nextstrain.org/

    I think this is the Cambridge University paper mentioned.
    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

    I have not seen anything indicating the strains differ in virulence.
  15. @Anonymous
    Speaking of over-reactions, the Theodore Roosevelt's (CVN-71) crew have been tested for COVID-19, with 416 positive cases and 3,170 negative results. Of those that tested positive, 187 were symptomatic and 229 were asymptomatic. It was for this that Capt. Cozier ... did what he did.

    The expected number of deaths for people in the age-and-condition profile of active navy sailors, even if the virus spread completely freely aboard a vessel of that size, is 0 (zero).

    • Replies: @Rabbi Zaius
    Speaking as an army veteran, you're forgetting the obesity and HIV problem prevalent in our sister service.
  16. God is still amused by southern California; NYC, not so much.

    • LOL: Muggles
  17. “New York became the epicenter of the disease in America because of several factors. The virus arrived there earlier than elsewhere and in more locations; it is denser than any other U.S. city; it depends more on public transportation”

    Also, NYC’s Health Commissioner’s first response to the virus news was to tell everyone to ignore it and attend Chinese New Year celebrations anyway and to call anyone racist who wouldn’t #HugAChinaman.

    • Agree: Triumph104, ia, unit472, res
  18. I call BS … California’s lockdown was a mere few days prior to NY.

    • Replies: @Anon87
    Agree, other factors are at play. While shutting down may have helped a bit, the US overall was way too late in reacting. The virus was most likely already spreading for a few months before March. While the virus is real, our frankly muddled and shoddy response has still resulted in a low death toll. Not exactly Plaguebolaids people were warning about. I'm wondering what I'm going to do with this 20lb bag of rice, since there is absolutely no shortage of food available.
    , @AnonAnon

    I call BS … California’s lockdown was a mere few days prior to NY.
     
    Silicon Valley companies started having people working from home in early March - March 5th -well before the state wide lock down went in place. Stanford told the kids to leave campus on March 6. California’s first reported case was on January 26th - a traveler from Wuhan. She was a parent who fled Wuhan to stay with her daughter who attended Irvine Valley Community College in Orange County. Once cases started popping up in California people started shopping less and going out to eat less, with Chinese restaurants being hard hit - so people were modifying their behavior early.

    I don’t know why the media is trying to peddle NY had coronavirus before California/the west coast - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8206625/America-hit-COVID-19-two-continents-studies-suggest.html - “ Coronavirus likely came to the US first from Europe, circulating unseen among New Yorkers for weeks before the state's first case was diagnosed, and even before it arrived in Washington state, where the first American case was confirmed. “ - but it doesn’t pass the common sense test. NY state didn’t even report their first case until March 1. It’s not like they wouldn’t have been on the lookout for it once the Washington State case hit the news.

    As for lockdowns being the reason California is doing so well, maybe partially due to that. We don’t live on top of each other, we don’t take mass transit, most people barely know their neighbors let alone gather in huggy/kissy ethnic enclaves, our mild climate lets us get outdoors and open the windows, our state has better quality medical care than NYC, and perhaps most importantly, the west coast Chinese nationals and Chinese Americans made their relatives put on a mask once they came back from traveling to Wuhan. It would certainly explain why heavily Asians cities aren’t noticeably more hard hit than other cities in California. The unsuspecting people who traveled back to New York from Europe had no clue what they brought back with them and it just spread and spread in the crowded subway air and high rise elevators.

    , @Seth Largo
    Yeah. And Vegas shut down after both LA and NYC . . . what are they at, 100 deaths? The strip is as packed as any NYC street.
  19. a positive outcome from the virus is Cuomo cannot be the democrat nominee. Too easy to fault him for not locking down NYC sooner, not having better health officials with more effective treatments of the infected.

    But democrats still have to replace Biden. Gavin Newsom as the next president?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Newsom is doing Trump-like stuff like he just made a hush-hush deal to buy California health care workers 150 million N95 masks. Don't ask from whom or for how much. It's all part of the art of the deal.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Steve, Cuomo was gov when H1-N1 (2009-2010) hit and was told to stockpile medical supplies and ventilators. Never happened. Thousands of hospital beds were eliminated during his tenure. And his two closest allies in State governance are in jail. He is no "Michael."
  20. @Steve Richter
    a positive outcome from the virus is Cuomo cannot be the democrat nominee. Too easy to fault him for not locking down NYC sooner, not having better health officials with more effective treatments of the infected.

    But democrats still have to replace Biden. Gavin Newsom as the next president?

    Newsom is doing Trump-like stuff like he just made a hush-hush deal to buy California health care workers 150 million N95 masks. Don’t ask from whom or for how much. It’s all part of the art of the deal.

    • LOL: Hibernian
  21. I can tell you that New York City was pretty shut down the week of March 16. The schools were closed (an announcement was made over the weekend — I really felt sorry for the parents of public schoolchildren). I went to the office once that week and had the place largely to myself.

    The Times ran an article yesterday saying that half the people who have died in the city might have been spared if it had shut down a week sooner. I wonder if the evidence for that is nothing more than the timing of the shutdown in NY v. California.

    What is needed beyond a bare chronology is accurate statistics, if they exist, of how much New Yorkers and Californians were actually moving about/group socializing at the time. My own WAG is that by March 16 the damage was largely done in NYC.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Sunday March 16 is when the mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti, shut restaurants, bars, bowling alleys, and movie theaters. I was impressed with the last item because it no doubt globally cratered Hollywood's movie theater business: if the mayor of Hollywood has closed Hollywood's movie theaters, shouldn't we? Sure, most of Hollywood's revenue these days comes from television/online, but still ...

    I presume there's a reason Disney CEO Bob Iger, 69, the most successful movie mogul/theme park CEO of the century, abruptly retired in February 2020.

    , @slumber_j
    We bugged out of Manhattan the evening of Sunday, March 15, with shutdown imminent. Things had certainly gotten serious by then, and people were already behaving accordingly
  22. @Daniel H
    Truth, I (and many others) think the whole matter is a farce, an hysterical over-reaction. Time may tell.

    “an hysterical over-reaction”

    Actually it has been a calculated, deliberate over-reaction: a manufactured hysteria designed to create a chaos and a crisis which would not have existed otherwise.

    Look at the whole thing like a chess problem:

    Throughout Dec/Jan there was little coverage of the Wuhan situation, and both Dem Government and Dem Media Machine were focused with laser-like intensity on the incredibly pressing issue of whether the President said something mean to some guy in Ukraine during a phone call. Go back through the voluminous Dem presidential debates with the original Broadway cast of the Banana Splits, and try to find how many Democrat wizards asked far-reaching questions about Wuhan virus.

    When Trump closed off travel from China at end of Jan, the Dems howled Racist Nazi like trained seals. Dems howl racist Nazi at Trump 24/7 no matter what. If Trump had rolled out social distancing practice and crashed the economy in Feb, Dems would have howled racist evil authoritarian without evidence Nazi, defied social distancing as a matter of Resistance! and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.

    IOW there was no practical window for Trump to take effective measures before he actually did so.

    But even that doesn’t matter because there was never a national crisis, as we are seeing now: just a rather nastier than usual flu bug which culls the weak mostly. The MSM had a variety of ways to play the story, best practice would have been, Whoa it’s nasty out there this winter everyone! Wash your hands a lot, cover your face in public, and steer clear of vulnerable relatives or else take rational precautions.

    But no. It was the MSM’s simultaneous, unanimous, full-court press decision to go completely hysterical which caused the hysteria. Why did they do this?

    — Russiagate nonsense did not work.
    — Impeachment nonsense did not work.
    — in a field of 20 candidates, with a full three years to prepare, not a single compelling voice.
    — Dem choice is between Commie Larry David and a dribbling dementia patient with a crooked and undistinguished past.

    This was a Hail Mary pass, pure and simple.

    Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites.

    • Agree: Patrick Sullivan
    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites."

    Pro comment, every jot and tittle. Imagine hating one White man so much that you attack and impoverish millions of people because you hope it harms him. This is exactly what Democratic governors and the hatestream media have done.

    #CoronaHoax

    , @Known Fact
    You've laid it all out so well. There was a tipping point where NYC media and officials suddenly pivoted from absurd reassurances that there would be no problem whatsoever -- despite packed subways and waves of travelers from China -- to the even more absurd levels of lockdown panic and ventilatormania.

    But aside from the panic and the deliberate sabotage of our society, what also strikes me is the many serious-minded people doggedly trying to make sense of the mountain of statistics now being generated. And yet the stats they're so diligently scrutinizing are potentially flawed at every step of the way. The tests are suspect, the people being tested are not a representative sample, the A-symps confound the whole mess and even cause of death can be misread or massaged.

    , @BenKenobi
    Spoke for Whites. He doesn't do that anymore. Anyone even remotely based from the nascent administration has been purged.

    He should have torn everything out, root and branch on Jan 21, 2017. He could have fixed everything, legally and with state power. He could have had the largest army on Earth personally loyal to him just for the asking. He could have become the literal God-Emperor of Humanity.

    TearsInRain.jpg
    , @Hibernian

    ...and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.
     
    In Chicago they and their media allies said it was racist to quit going to eat at the Chinese restaurants in Chinatown.
    , @MB
    The Great 2020 Panic Plannedemic is all about breaking the economy, vaccinating the universe via a Windows Virus Version X microchip courtesy of Bill Gates hisself and suppressing dissent. Because Orange Man Bad has got to go.
    Unless he plays along and flattens the curve of resistance by calling for the '08 Big Bank/Business Bailout Part II to rescue corporations from this evil pandemic.
    Fauci is on the game and FakeBook etc. all promote the party line.

    And then there's Thomas Massie who speaks for the rest of us and asks where is all the money going to come from for this financial IV? (No wonder there's a shortage of toilet paper. Between the Treasury and the Fed Reserve, all the available stock is going to supply the printing presses.)
    Likewise can we have people go on record as to how they voted?
    So if things ever get back to normal and the nation doesn't descend completely to the level of a banana republic, voters might make a nominal stab at holding their legislators accountable.

    But yeah, I agree with the Don.
    Massie doesn't belong in the Repuglican party.
  23. @Keypusher
    I can tell you that New York City was pretty shut down the week of March 16. The schools were closed (an announcement was made over the weekend — I really felt sorry for the parents of public schoolchildren). I went to the office once that week and had the place largely to myself.

    The Times ran an article yesterday saying that half the people who have died in the city might have been spared if it had shut down a week sooner. I wonder if the evidence for that is nothing more than the timing of the shutdown in NY v. California.

    What is needed beyond a bare chronology is accurate statistics, if they exist, of how much New Yorkers and Californians were actually moving about/group socializing at the time. My own WAG is that by March 16 the damage was largely done in NYC.

    Sunday March 16 is when the mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti, shut restaurants, bars, bowling alleys, and movie theaters. I was impressed with the last item because it no doubt globally cratered Hollywood’s movie theater business: if the mayor of Hollywood has closed Hollywood’s movie theaters, shouldn’t we? Sure, most of Hollywood’s revenue these days comes from television/online, but still …

    I presume there’s a reason Disney CEO Bob Iger, 69, the most successful movie mogul/theme park CEO of the century, abruptly retired in February 2020.

  24. @utu
    Simulations of how many less deaths would occur in NYC if the countermeasures were implemented 1 day, 2 days, 3 days,... should be done. Only then we could look at other factors responsible for the difference between California and NY. I think that the population density and the mode of transportation account for different unconstrained by countermeasures value of R0 in the two states.

    A rudimentary simulation should not be that difficult. We have NY daily deaths function that shows very fast growth early with 3 day doubling period and then the effects of the countermeasures slow down the rate of growth that leads to the inflection point after which the curve becomes concave. By shifting and scaling the function one may get the estimate of number of deaths if the countermeasure in NY were introduced ∆d days sooner.

    It has been reported that California and NY may have different virus strains. Is it possible that California has the less aggressive strain?

    Coronavirus: aggressive ‘L type’ strain affecting 70 per cent of cases
    https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-aggressive-l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/

    How America was hit with COVID-19 from two continents: Majority of cases in US epicenter New York came from Europe – but a DIFFERENT strain spread from China to the West Coast, genome studies reveal
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8206625/America-hit-COVID-19-two-continents-studies-suggest.html

    good point.

    You would also need to adjust for the demographics of New York verse California.
    New Yorkers are more elderly than California. The percentage of New Yorkers over the age of 60 is 25% compared to 20% in California. The average age in California is 36 and 40 in New York State.

    New York has 3 times the number of Blacks compared to California. (7% verse 20%)
    New York Hispanics are mostly mulatto Puerto Ricans and Dominicans.
    12% of New Yorkers are Dominican or Puerto Rican while less than 1% in California are.

    New Yorkers are more likely to have vitamin D deficiencies in March, due to the harsher climate of New York. The weather in New York results in people spending more time indoors in close proximity to other people. New Yorkers spend much more time inside , breathing in dry heated air during March and April. Currently the Temperature in NYC is 36 degrees, was below freezing last night. While California has nice warm weather , thus more people outside getting vitamin D.

    In every state the hardest hit are the elderly and Blacks. Thus we would expect New York to have more deaths from CV than California based on Demographics and density.

    Even if NYC started the lockdown a few days earlier, like California, we would expect the New York to suffer many more deaths due to the different demographics in New York verse California.

    • Agree: Triumph104
    • Replies: @utu
    Flu mortality is usually higher in NY than in California.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm
    , @unit472
    Florida's demographics are not unlike New York's except more elderly. Even if you accept the idea that there are two strains of the virus with New York's being more deadly Florida would have the New York variant since there is far more winter travel between New York and Florida than between Florida and California. Governor De Santis only called for a limited shelter in place order after the media started howling about college spring breakers frolicking on Florida's beaches. Yet no major outbreak in Florida just an elevated (18%) positive level on tests in Dade County. Why?

    You are really only left with the previously discussed issue of public transit. Florida doesn't have any to speak of. The elderly, outside of nursing homes, already knew the risks they faced and were avoiding crowded venues and if they had to travel they did it in their cars.
  25. @Steve Sailer
    It could be that there is a more dangerous Italian version that is more prevalent in New York than in California. Besides tourism, the fashion industry has a lot of people going back and forth between New York and Milan on business trips (although, in the umpteenth puzzling aspect of this story, Milan, unlike New York City, wasn't too badly off compared to the small towns east of Milan).

    Milan largely escaped the Black Death too.

  26. This article is just repeatedly begging the question.

    It claims that the shutdown caused the slow rise in cases, but there’s no nothing in there comparing the rate of growth before and after the shutdown, for example. There’s no mention of the lag between infection and deaths. Just “early shutdown” “low deaths”.

    There’s a quote from someone who makes models who says that it makes a “big difference” if you do a shutdown a day earlier or later, but they don’t even say this person did models for California or New York let alone what the models actually said or how accurate they were.

    It’s all just post hoc ergo propter hoc with nothing else to support it.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    It’s all just post hoc ergo propter hoc with nothing else to support it.

    Expect a lot of this going forward. They need to defend spending 6.5 trillion in the USA. Admitting they were wrong is not a possibility.
  27. 2 things NYC could have done. While it eventually did close the public schools, Diblasio did so very reluctantly. At last report 19 Department of Education employees’ deaths have been attributed to COVID. There are reports that his imbecile PC AA schools chancellor ordered schools not to report COVIS infections in early March to the City’s Department of Health. If instead they had closed the schools even a few days sooner, some of those people would be alive and numerous infections never happen.

    More problematic; the subways and buses should have been shut down. To idiot liberal NYers, think is unthinkable. The NY Post featured a story yesterday of a Transit worker who while working his ass off explained the subway cars are cleaned and sanitized every 3 days. When you consider the number of passengers, that simply doesn’t accomplish much. And Diblasio has refused to remove the homeless bums who practically live in the subway system. Liberals think of the subway as NY’s lifeblood, but that can work against you. The subway now acts the same way an infected circulatory system spreads the infection by pumping blood throughout the body.

    Sadly NYC has a mindset that the subway is some kind of God-given right. Nobody in city nor NY state government is questioning that urban density and mass transit may not be unalloyed good things. This is going to accelerate the movement of the financial services industry out of Manhattan, and with it, NY’s tax base. SALT was already doing so; the stories of high tax suburban bedroom communities around the tristate area filled with for sale signs and on line realty listings are legion. Now going to work in Manhattan by itself could kill you; no thanks. Technology is such you can work from home, or at least some sprawling office park out in America that you can drive your car to easily. Diblasio is demanding that rent and mortgage payments be forgiven for a few months, but he is not agreeing to forego NYC realty tax payments.

    Simply the car-centric suburban sprawl liberals decry is a lot healthier for you than being in a dense centralized public transit city.

    • Agree: Triumph104
    • Replies: @Svevlad
    The simple problem is that Americans (every angloid nation in general really) can't figure out the middle ground

    EITHER it's packed like sardines or spread outh with no services anywhere.

    Solution? Change zoning laws so all residential zone area allows up to 20% commercial. Bam, suddenly suburbs start being walkable, the idiotic subdivision system is dead by mexican cartel style decapitation this will cause.

    But nope! That would reduce some retard's profit by 0,0000001% and piss of 2000 gorillion chimp tier IQ soccer moms! Haram!

    Infinite residential suburbs! MANDATORY car travel even across the street is the future, all because apparently some people have mandatory autism
  28. @Travis
    good point.

    You would also need to adjust for the demographics of New York verse California.
    New Yorkers are more elderly than California. The percentage of New Yorkers over the age of 60 is 25% compared to 20% in California. The average age in California is 36 and 40 in New York State.

    New York has 3 times the number of Blacks compared to California. (7% verse 20%)
    New York Hispanics are mostly mulatto Puerto Ricans and Dominicans.
    12% of New Yorkers are Dominican or Puerto Rican while less than 1% in California are.

    New Yorkers are more likely to have vitamin D deficiencies in March, due to the harsher climate of New York. The weather in New York results in people spending more time indoors in close proximity to other people. New Yorkers spend much more time inside , breathing in dry heated air during March and April. Currently the Temperature in NYC is 36 degrees, was below freezing last night. While California has nice warm weather , thus more people outside getting vitamin D.

    In every state the hardest hit are the elderly and Blacks. Thus we would expect New York to have more deaths from CV than California based on Demographics and density.

    Even if NYC started the lockdown a few days earlier, like California, we would expect the New York to suffer many more deaths due to the different demographics in New York verse California.

    Flu mortality is usually higher in NY than in California.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

    • Replies: @res
    Thanks. That shows NY death rate about 18% greater. 18.4 vs. 15.6 per 100,000.

    Important to note that those death rates are age adjusted so they actually don't capture Travis's demographic point. The raw number of deaths is given as well. 5,521 for NY, 7,553 for CA

    Using 2018 population figures of 19.53 million for NY and 39.46 million for CA we calculate raw deaths per 100,00 as 28.3 for NY and 19.1 for CA so you can see that the raw difference is even larger (>2x the percentage difference!). As one would expect from Travis's point.
  29. @anon
    Check the math you sub 220 IQ dummies. My spreadsheet says this Virus is going exponential . Expo fucking nential !
    According to my calculations, we are on target for One Hundred Million deaths worldwide, with one Million deaths in America.
    Sure, I'm fine here in my modest house with my Mexican housekeeper and chef, and those short guys who maintain my estate, but you other Americans may need to shelter in place until I say.
    Regards,
    R. Unz.

    They waved exponential numbers in front of the digirati. “Finally, a chance to show the power of numbers and demonstrate to the benighted what they have been missing.”

    I’m not going to doubt Ron’s sincerity. The numbers based on the bad data we had really did look horrible. But we have learned more and their response isn’t scientific, to change policies when the facts change, but rather to dig in. That’s politics, not science: who are you gonna believe, me or the actual facts on the ground?

    NYC has suffered excess deaths from this thing. We will see if the annual total goes outside of previous years’, or if the April killing fields just represent deaths moved forward. NYC has also suffered unquestioned economic shock from this, and in a way that will set off a catabolic cycle. That shock is going to kill… how many people? Were those dead from economic collapse included in the original models (time to check the University College London model closely)? Ignoring second-order effects, as the rush to shutdown people did, is an exercise in bad modeling. I hope someone is held to account for it.

  30. California’s media markets are all against the coasts. The media in California does not bother to report that much on other states and does not have to give any time to politicians from other states.
    However, NYC has to give some attention to New Jersey and Conn. That muddles the message in all three states.

    If you want to find some of the burning areas, that are media markets are stretch into multiple states/jurisdiction. See how parts of Maryland and Northern Virginia suffer from having the local media focus on DC or northern Indiaian and southern Wisconsin suffer from the local media focusing on Chicago.

  31. @Len
    After this is over, how many knowing assertions are going to end up re-emphasizing 'correlation is not causation'?

    Anyway, here's a picture of Gavin's covid19 model for CA. Note the dots for actual hospitalizations, and how they barely track along the very bottom of the ginormous predicted range.

    https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1248696355372978176

    So…… when will the eighth-grade mathletes like Ron Unz acknowledge the coronahoax never ever even for five minutes went exponential?

    • Replies: @vhrm
    For the love of FSM please stop saying that the deaths (and cases) didn't grow exponentially. They absolutely did in the beginning for several weeks and months in some cases. Then they slowed down.

    Again this phenomenon clearly demonstrated exponential growth behavior (and still does e.g. deaths in Louisiana though thankfully new cases have slowed a lot)

    Arguing WHY they slowed down or how people overreacted and should have waited longer, please be my guest.
    But just stop claiming it wasn't exponential because it weakens your argument and, by extension, that of the whole "this was overreaction" side. (i forgot the quippy name... "minimizers" ?)
  32. @XYZ (no Mr.)
    This seems like straightforward propaganda aimed at getting Californians to continue to accept shelter orders without complaint, while simultaneously acting as support for the recent hagiographies in the news I've seen of various local public health officers. For the Bay Area core counties, 7 million strong, at least the data is consistent with your previous entry on subways: most of the Bay Area is like San Jose when it comes to commuting. San Francisco is little more than 10 percent of the region's population, and an outlier. San Jose and all of Santa Clara County, Alameda County, Contra Costa County, and most of San Mateo County are literally like Southern cities when it comes to transportation, and living is pretty spread out.

    Yet New York City is strangely seen as comparable to here, and without the strong expertise and foresight of our health officers social distancing our ass a whole two days before NYC, we would have undoubtedly suffered the same fate. It's complete nonsense of course, and plenty of Southern states -- there's a lot more than Louisiana out there -- will end up fine, with a per capita Wuhan virus death count comparable to California, and with more lackadaisical approaches to shelter orders.

    I agree with much -- but certainly not all -- of the shelter order actions where I live. But this attempt at self congratulation without a rigorous look on perhaps maybe our conditions, and not our decision makers, is what made the difference, is pretty pathetic.

    Heartiste coined a great term for this malicious behavior by elected officials:

    Noblesse malice

  33. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    "an hysterical over-reaction"

    Actually it has been a calculated, deliberate over-reaction: a manufactured hysteria designed to create a chaos and a crisis which would not have existed otherwise.

    Look at the whole thing like a chess problem:

    Throughout Dec/Jan there was little coverage of the Wuhan situation, and both Dem Government and Dem Media Machine were focused with laser-like intensity on the incredibly pressing issue of whether the President said something mean to some guy in Ukraine during a phone call. Go back through the voluminous Dem presidential debates with the original Broadway cast of the Banana Splits, and try to find how many Democrat wizards asked far-reaching questions about Wuhan virus.

    When Trump closed off travel from China at end of Jan, the Dems howled Racist Nazi like trained seals. Dems howl racist Nazi at Trump 24/7 no matter what. If Trump had rolled out social distancing practice and crashed the economy in Feb, Dems would have howled racist evil authoritarian without evidence Nazi, defied social distancing as a matter of Resistance! and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.

    IOW there was no practical window for Trump to take effective measures before he actually did so.

    But even that doesn't matter because there was never a national crisis, as we are seeing now: just a rather nastier than usual flu bug which culls the weak mostly. The MSM had a variety of ways to play the story, best practice would have been, Whoa it's nasty out there this winter everyone! Wash your hands a lot, cover your face in public, and steer clear of vulnerable relatives or else take rational precautions.

    But no. It was the MSM's simultaneous, unanimous, full-court press decision to go completely hysterical which caused the hysteria. Why did they do this?

    -- Russiagate nonsense did not work.
    -- Impeachment nonsense did not work.
    -- in a field of 20 candidates, with a full three years to prepare, not a single compelling voice.
    -- Dem choice is between Commie Larry David and a dribbling dementia patient with a crooked and undistinguished past.

    This was a Hail Mary pass, pure and simple.

    Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites.

    “Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites.”

    Pro comment, every jot and tittle. Imagine hating one White man so much that you attack and impoverish millions of people because you hope it harms him. This is exactly what Democratic governors and the hatestream media have done.

    #CoronaHoax

  34. @Gary in Gramercy
    "Michael"? I assume you're referring to the NY governor whose younger brother is Fredo. Here he is at a press conference, explaining the first, and most important, rule of The Cuomo Lockdown:

    "No one can call my brother Fredo but me. Understand? I can call him Fredo anytime I want. Everybody else has to call him 'Chris,' or 'Christopher,' but not 'Fredo.' That's only for me, because he's my little brother, and honestly, if you want to know the truth, he's kind of retarded. Pop always used to wonder about him, and about Ma too, sometimes, 'cause the rest of us have Pop's brains, but no, Ma is a saint! Forget I said that! Off the record, off the record! Don't print that. Not if you know what's good for you. You think I can't shut down that shiny new building of yours at 620 Eighth Avenue in New York City? Or 'repurpose' it for the current emergency? Bellevue called this morning: they're running out of beds..."

    Gary, Too funny. Google “Chris Cuomo’s sickening interviews of Andrew-NY Post.” Chris actually says on air that the country is learning to love Andrew like he does. Gag worthy.

  35. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    "an hysterical over-reaction"

    Actually it has been a calculated, deliberate over-reaction: a manufactured hysteria designed to create a chaos and a crisis which would not have existed otherwise.

    Look at the whole thing like a chess problem:

    Throughout Dec/Jan there was little coverage of the Wuhan situation, and both Dem Government and Dem Media Machine were focused with laser-like intensity on the incredibly pressing issue of whether the President said something mean to some guy in Ukraine during a phone call. Go back through the voluminous Dem presidential debates with the original Broadway cast of the Banana Splits, and try to find how many Democrat wizards asked far-reaching questions about Wuhan virus.

    When Trump closed off travel from China at end of Jan, the Dems howled Racist Nazi like trained seals. Dems howl racist Nazi at Trump 24/7 no matter what. If Trump had rolled out social distancing practice and crashed the economy in Feb, Dems would have howled racist evil authoritarian without evidence Nazi, defied social distancing as a matter of Resistance! and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.

    IOW there was no practical window for Trump to take effective measures before he actually did so.

    But even that doesn't matter because there was never a national crisis, as we are seeing now: just a rather nastier than usual flu bug which culls the weak mostly. The MSM had a variety of ways to play the story, best practice would have been, Whoa it's nasty out there this winter everyone! Wash your hands a lot, cover your face in public, and steer clear of vulnerable relatives or else take rational precautions.

    But no. It was the MSM's simultaneous, unanimous, full-court press decision to go completely hysterical which caused the hysteria. Why did they do this?

    -- Russiagate nonsense did not work.
    -- Impeachment nonsense did not work.
    -- in a field of 20 candidates, with a full three years to prepare, not a single compelling voice.
    -- Dem choice is between Commie Larry David and a dribbling dementia patient with a crooked and undistinguished past.

    This was a Hail Mary pass, pure and simple.

    Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites.

    You’ve laid it all out so well. There was a tipping point where NYC media and officials suddenly pivoted from absurd reassurances that there would be no problem whatsoever — despite packed subways and waves of travelers from China — to the even more absurd levels of lockdown panic and ventilatormania.

    But aside from the panic and the deliberate sabotage of our society, what also strikes me is the many serious-minded people doggedly trying to make sense of the mountain of statistics now being generated. And yet the stats they’re so diligently scrutinizing are potentially flawed at every step of the way. The tests are suspect, the people being tested are not a representative sample, the A-symps confound the whole mess and even cause of death can be misread or massaged.

  36. @Steve Richter
    a positive outcome from the virus is Cuomo cannot be the democrat nominee. Too easy to fault him for not locking down NYC sooner, not having better health officials with more effective treatments of the infected.

    But democrats still have to replace Biden. Gavin Newsom as the next president?

    Steve, Cuomo was gov when H1-N1 (2009-2010) hit and was told to stockpile medical supplies and ventilators. Never happened. Thousands of hospital beds were eliminated during his tenure. And his two closest allies in State governance are in jail. He is no “Michael.”

    • Replies: @anonymous
    Disagree, Mr. Joe.

    Cuomo II is smart and utterly ruthless. He skated while his associates were jailed, and he is currently positioning himself to accept the Dem nomination for President. The state legislature just adopted his 5 year old fracking ban in the new state budget, which will allow the Dem media to avoid talking about his sabotage of the economies of Western and Central New York while he is running for Prez.
    I think Trump has a shot at being re-elected, but a slim one. Expect voter fraud on a massive scale.
  37. anonymous[117] • Disclaimer says:
    @J.Ross
    The two things New York didn't have and couldn't get were space (which California has in abundance, even in its cities) and the medical supplies recommended by a committee but deferred by Michael because at the time they didn't seem necessary. To Michael's credit he has joined his president in calling out the terrorist-led China-defending WHO for originally giving backwards advice.

    Call him Cuomo II to avoid confusion. He runs the state just like his old man did.

  38. @Steve Sailer
    It could be that there is a more dangerous Italian version that is more prevalent in New York than in California. Besides tourism, the fashion industry has a lot of people going back and forth between New York and Milan on business trips (although, in the umpteenth puzzling aspect of this story, Milan, unlike New York City, wasn't too badly off compared to the small towns east of Milan).

    I think that’s possible. Also the worse version may have somehow reached Michigan and Louisiana, which also have high death rates. Obvious how it could get to New Orleans, not really clear why Michigan, as there isn’t much travel between Italy/Michigan…maybe Iraqis/Iranians brought it back to metro Detroit after visiting relatives or going on a religious pilgrimage?

    Another factor in NY vs. California…..population density may make the viral load worse. Maybe quarantining people in their old apartments with old ventilation systems does little good?

    • Replies: @Elli
    A lot of old apartments have steam radiators, window air conditioners, not shared ventilation.

    Shared elevators and hallways of course.
    , @DetroitAnon
    Detroit had many auto companies and suppliers. Lots of travel between China and Europe for this business.
  39. anonymous[117] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buffalo Joe
    Steve, Cuomo was gov when H1-N1 (2009-2010) hit and was told to stockpile medical supplies and ventilators. Never happened. Thousands of hospital beds were eliminated during his tenure. And his two closest allies in State governance are in jail. He is no "Michael."

    Disagree, Mr. Joe.

    Cuomo II is smart and utterly ruthless. He skated while his associates were jailed, and he is currently positioning himself to accept the Dem nomination for President. The state legislature just adopted his 5 year old fracking ban in the new state budget, which will allow the Dem media to avoid talking about his sabotage of the economies of Western and Central New York while he is running for Prez.
    I think Trump has a shot at being re-elected, but a slim one. Expect voter fraud on a massive scale.

    • Replies: @Sparkon

    Cuomo II is smart and utterly ruthless.
     
    You may be right, but in his March 19, 2020 interview with Savannah Guthrie on the Today show, Gov. Cuomo made this rather remarkable statement:

    "In this war ventilators are what the missiles were in World War II."
     
    https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/audio-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-guest-nbcs-today-show-0

    The way I learned it, the Germans had the missiles in WWII, and the Germans also lost the war. Of course, the Red Army had their Katyushas, sometimes called "Stalin's Organs" by the German soldiers, although strictly speaking, those were rockets, not missiles.

    The more things change, the more they are different.
  40. How do you explain the outlying suburban counties of New York City? Most of those counties, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland are more like Los Angeles in their residential and commuting patterns. Only a minority of commuters commute into NYC. My county Bergen in New Jersey has nearly 9,000 cases and almost 900 deaths making this county alone worse than 39 states and most countries. Bergen is suburban and most people commute by car.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    A fair number of the cases in the NYC suburbs can be traced to Orthodox and sometimes Hasidic communities.
    , @Hibernian
    Don't a lot of these people drive to a commuter train, take that train downtown, and in some cases take a bus or subway to the office? Around Chicago, a lot of people in Lake, Du Page, Mc Henry, Lake, Will, and suburban Cook counties, and NW Indiana, do this.
  41. @Travis
    good point.

    You would also need to adjust for the demographics of New York verse California.
    New Yorkers are more elderly than California. The percentage of New Yorkers over the age of 60 is 25% compared to 20% in California. The average age in California is 36 and 40 in New York State.

    New York has 3 times the number of Blacks compared to California. (7% verse 20%)
    New York Hispanics are mostly mulatto Puerto Ricans and Dominicans.
    12% of New Yorkers are Dominican or Puerto Rican while less than 1% in California are.

    New Yorkers are more likely to have vitamin D deficiencies in March, due to the harsher climate of New York. The weather in New York results in people spending more time indoors in close proximity to other people. New Yorkers spend much more time inside , breathing in dry heated air during March and April. Currently the Temperature in NYC is 36 degrees, was below freezing last night. While California has nice warm weather , thus more people outside getting vitamin D.

    In every state the hardest hit are the elderly and Blacks. Thus we would expect New York to have more deaths from CV than California based on Demographics and density.

    Even if NYC started the lockdown a few days earlier, like California, we would expect the New York to suffer many more deaths due to the different demographics in New York verse California.

    Florida’s demographics are not unlike New York’s except more elderly. Even if you accept the idea that there are two strains of the virus with New York’s being more deadly Florida would have the New York variant since there is far more winter travel between New York and Florida than between Florida and California. Governor De Santis only called for a limited shelter in place order after the media started howling about college spring breakers frolicking on Florida’s beaches. Yet no major outbreak in Florida just an elevated (18%) positive level on tests in Dade County. Why?

    You are really only left with the previously discussed issue of public transit. Florida doesn’t have any to speak of. The elderly, outside of nursing homes, already knew the risks they faced and were avoiding crowded venues and if they had to travel they did it in their cars.

    • Disagree: Unladen Swallow
    • Replies: @Unladen Swallow
    I agree, disregard disagree
  42. I think they did well to squeeze 550 beds into a one million square foot facility after putting in all the requisite administrative and management facilities. That’s still less than 2000 square feet per bed.
    In 2020 America the primary mission of all public institutions is the production of white collar jobs with good pay, benefits, working conditions, and pensions for mediocre functionaries. At least they
    thought to include hospital beds at all.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    In 2020 America the primary mission of all public institutions is the production of white collar jobs with good pay, benefits, working conditions, and pensions for mediocre functionaries.

    Yes, and now that the white working class is entirely unemployed... nah, nothing was changed. The people making the shutdown decision were not the people being most negatively affected by it.
  43. @J.Ross
    The two things New York didn't have and couldn't get were space (which California has in abundance, even in its cities) and the medical supplies recommended by a committee but deferred by Michael because at the time they didn't seem necessary. To Michael's credit he has joined his president in calling out the terrorist-led China-defending WHO for originally giving backwards advice.

    The CDC- Big Pharma’s vaccine distribution agency- revised the flu death counting protocol to make sure the count in dysfunctional NYC went up as people watched in horror on the CNN. the Cuomo News Network. Our overlords hyped a so-called ‘pandemic’ as a cover for their debt bubble implosion.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/whistleblower-how-cdc-manipulating-covid-19-death-toll

    Event 201 run by the vaccine fetishists of the Gates Foundation ( Dr. Leah Birx is a member ) and Johns-Hopkins ( Dr. Anthony Fauci ) last Oct. 2019 at a ‘World Economic Forum’ event gamed out what we are living through right now. The exercise was evidently modeled on the movie ‘Contagion’.

    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

    https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/04/bill-gates-psychopathology-we-dont-want-a-lot-of-recovered-people-reason-behind-the-lock-downs/

    https://www.sott.net/article/432171-Bill-Gates-Obsession-With-Vaccines

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/04/07/the-coronavirus-encounters-of-an-average-american-nobody/#more-215807

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/485497-federal-reserve-junk-bonds/

  44. As I mentioned at the tail end of another recent Steve Sailer item, NY state now has more confirmed cases than any other country in world (save the US, of course) according to New York magazine. More than Italy, Spain or China.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html

  45. Friend of a relative in LA, in his 50’s, diabetic since teens, has short expected life span unless be gets a new kidney. After a week of severe COVID19, he is still being treated and kept alive. They must not have any shortage of beds or ventilators yet.

  46. By the way, the weather in L.A. has been cool and rainy for the last month….. But the rain has played havoc with my new Vitamin D fetish.

    For non-Southern Californians, this should say “than usual”. Down here in San Diego, I have quite the tan going simply from 20 to 30 minutes exposure between 11AM and 1pm. I would estimate I have done this 90% of the days of our 3+ week house imprisonment.

    I am not exactly sure what Steve’s Vitamin D “fetish” is if he isn’t also doing this.

    The first weekend of our imprisonment was so nice with people out and being active all over, from beaches, to local parks (Mission Trails) to state parks (Anza Borrego), that they had to then decide to close them all. You actually can still go hiking in Anza Borrego…. it’s just that vehicles aren’t permitted.

  47. @anon
    Check the math you sub 220 IQ dummies. My spreadsheet says this Virus is going exponential . Expo fucking nential !
    According to my calculations, we are on target for One Hundred Million deaths worldwide, with one Million deaths in America.
    Sure, I'm fine here in my modest house with my Mexican housekeeper and chef, and those short guys who maintain my estate, but you other Americans may need to shelter in place until I say.
    Regards,
    R. Unz.

    my Mexican housekeeper and chef, and those short guys who maintain my estate,

    All essential workers. Our Brave New World is here.

  48. So comedian Lenny Bruce was on to something when he said “Ask an Angelino who they are, and they point to their car.”

    In his book Fast Food Nation, Eric Schlosser made the point that car culture came to LA earlier than most US major cities and was in full force there while other urban areas such as NY still held onto the old ways of public transportation. Private transportation has numerous advantages over pubic, not the least of which is that social distancing is a feature of the system.

    Moral of COVID-19: Stay in your car, and live to drive another day.

  49. @vhrm
    This article is just repeatedly begging the question.

    It claims that the shutdown caused the slow rise in cases, but there's no nothing in there comparing the rate of growth before and after the shutdown, for example. There's no mention of the lag between infection and deaths. Just "early shutdown" "low deaths".

    There's a quote from someone who makes models who says that it makes a "big difference" if you do a shutdown a day earlier or later, but they don't even say this person did models for California or New York let alone what the models actually said or how accurate they were.

    It's all just post hoc ergo propter hoc with nothing else to support it.

    It’s all just post hoc ergo propter hoc with nothing else to support it.

    Expect a lot of this going forward. They need to defend spending 6.5 trillion in the USA. Admitting they were wrong is not a possibility.

  50. @Alfa158
    I think they did well to squeeze 550 beds into a one million square foot facility after putting in all the requisite administrative and management facilities. That’s still less than 2000 square feet per bed.
    In 2020 America the primary mission of all public institutions is the production of white collar jobs with good pay, benefits, working conditions, and pensions for mediocre functionaries. At least they
    thought to include hospital beds at all.

    In 2020 America the primary mission of all public institutions is the production of white collar jobs with good pay, benefits, working conditions, and pensions for mediocre functionaries.

    Yes, and now that the white working class is entirely unemployed… nah, nothing was changed. The people making the shutdown decision were not the people being most negatively affected by it.

  51. @The Alarmist
    I call BS ... California's lockdown was a mere few days prior to NY.

    Agree, other factors are at play. While shutting down may have helped a bit, the US overall was way too late in reacting. The virus was most likely already spreading for a few months before March. While the virus is real, our frankly muddled and shoddy response has still resulted in a low death toll. Not exactly Plaguebolaids people were warning about. I’m wondering what I’m going to do with this 20lb bag of rice, since there is absolutely no shortage of food available.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    While shutting down may have helped a bit, the US overall was way too late in reacting. The virus was most likely already spreading for a few months before March.
     
    To your point, they tracked cell phone IMEIs from *one* beach in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160759/Cell-phone-data-reveals-Spring-Break-covidiots-traveled-flooding-beaches.html

    I think the heat maps that were generated make it pretty clear the tracking, testing, and shutdowns lagged far behind the virus' spread.
  52. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    "an hysterical over-reaction"

    Actually it has been a calculated, deliberate over-reaction: a manufactured hysteria designed to create a chaos and a crisis which would not have existed otherwise.

    Look at the whole thing like a chess problem:

    Throughout Dec/Jan there was little coverage of the Wuhan situation, and both Dem Government and Dem Media Machine were focused with laser-like intensity on the incredibly pressing issue of whether the President said something mean to some guy in Ukraine during a phone call. Go back through the voluminous Dem presidential debates with the original Broadway cast of the Banana Splits, and try to find how many Democrat wizards asked far-reaching questions about Wuhan virus.

    When Trump closed off travel from China at end of Jan, the Dems howled Racist Nazi like trained seals. Dems howl racist Nazi at Trump 24/7 no matter what. If Trump had rolled out social distancing practice and crashed the economy in Feb, Dems would have howled racist evil authoritarian without evidence Nazi, defied social distancing as a matter of Resistance! and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.

    IOW there was no practical window for Trump to take effective measures before he actually did so.

    But even that doesn't matter because there was never a national crisis, as we are seeing now: just a rather nastier than usual flu bug which culls the weak mostly. The MSM had a variety of ways to play the story, best practice would have been, Whoa it's nasty out there this winter everyone! Wash your hands a lot, cover your face in public, and steer clear of vulnerable relatives or else take rational precautions.

    But no. It was the MSM's simultaneous, unanimous, full-court press decision to go completely hysterical which caused the hysteria. Why did they do this?

    -- Russiagate nonsense did not work.
    -- Impeachment nonsense did not work.
    -- in a field of 20 candidates, with a full three years to prepare, not a single compelling voice.
    -- Dem choice is between Commie Larry David and a dribbling dementia patient with a crooked and undistinguished past.

    This was a Hail Mary pass, pure and simple.

    Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites.

    Spoke for Whites. He doesn’t do that anymore. Anyone even remotely based from the nascent administration has been purged.

    He should have torn everything out, root and branch on Jan 21, 2017. He could have fixed everything, legally and with state power. He could have had the largest army on Earth personally loyal to him just for the asking. He could have become the literal God-Emperor of Humanity.

    TearsInRain.jpg

  53. Another theory is that the virus has actually been circulating in California since last Fall and was thought to be merely an early flu season. California is loaded with Chinese tourists and students who could have brought the virus here early. A long exposure could have created a herd immunity effect, while the early casualties would have been attributed to influenza.

  54. Steve what do you think of Victor Davis Hanson’s view that CV has already blown through CA and now lots of people are somewhat immune? Sorry for the link to NR folks.

    His observation that CA has a high poverty rate, lots of unhealthy, people, tons of homeless, tons of Chinese tourists, it is the termination point for countless China flights including a number of directs from Wuhan, etc are good ones: CA should have been hammered by CV.

    On his podcast Hanson mentioned that, from his office at the Hoover Institution (on the Stanford campus) he sees on a daily basis countless Chinese touring Stanford. They’re going and out of buildings, touching doorknobs, pressing elevator buttons, etc.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-california-herd-immunity/

  55. @anonymous
    Disagree, Mr. Joe.

    Cuomo II is smart and utterly ruthless. He skated while his associates were jailed, and he is currently positioning himself to accept the Dem nomination for President. The state legislature just adopted his 5 year old fracking ban in the new state budget, which will allow the Dem media to avoid talking about his sabotage of the economies of Western and Central New York while he is running for Prez.
    I think Trump has a shot at being re-elected, but a slim one. Expect voter fraud on a massive scale.

    Cuomo II is smart and utterly ruthless.

    You may be right, but in his March 19, 2020 interview with Savannah Guthrie on the Today show, Gov. Cuomo made this rather remarkable statement:

    “In this war ventilators are what the missiles were in World War II.”

    https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/audio-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-guest-nbcs-today-show-0

    The way I learned it, the Germans had the missiles in WWII, and the Germans also lost the war. Of course, the Red Army had their Katyushas, sometimes called “Stalin’s Organs” by the German soldiers, although strictly speaking, those were rockets, not missiles.

    The more things change, the more they are different.

  56. Steve my uncle in San Jose is a retired naval vet.

    He cusses like a sailor still and I’ll never forget in 2016 when i visited him & my aunt he was cussing about how it had rained hard in 2015/16…..& had caused much plant growth which then dried out and was fire starter fuel…..

  57. @Hail
    The expected number of deaths for people in the age-and-condition profile of active navy sailors, even if the virus spread completely freely aboard a vessel of that size, is 0 (zero).

    Speaking as an army veteran, you’re forgetting the obesity and HIV problem prevalent in our sister service.

  58. @HenryA
    How do you explain the outlying suburban counties of New York City? Most of those counties, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland are more like Los Angeles in their residential and commuting patterns. Only a minority of commuters commute into NYC. My county Bergen in New Jersey has nearly 9,000 cases and almost 900 deaths making this county alone worse than 39 states and most countries. Bergen is suburban and most people commute by car.

    A fair number of the cases in the NYC suburbs can be traced to Orthodox and sometimes Hasidic communities.

  59. @Steve Sailer
    It could be that there is a more dangerous Italian version that is more prevalent in New York than in California. Besides tourism, the fashion industry has a lot of people going back and forth between New York and Milan on business trips (although, in the umpteenth puzzling aspect of this story, Milan, unlike New York City, wasn't too badly off compared to the small towns east of Milan).

    It could be that there is a more dangerous Italian version that is more prevalent in New York than in California.

    It has been established that the dominant strains in New York and California are different. NY mostly got it from Europe, CA mostly from Asia. Thanks to utu for pointing me to this article:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8206625/America-hit-COVID-19-two-continents-studies-suggest.html

    Here is one site they referenced. https://nextstrain.org/

    I think this is the Cambridge University paper mentioned.
    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

    I have not seen anything indicating the strains differ in virulence.

  60. LA and other cities also don’t have the one big thing that NYC and NY State have — an overabundance of ultra-orthodox jewish communities where the wuhan flu has spread quickly — the same as in israel.

    And, of course, those folks (at least initially) basically said ‘fuck off’ to what the politicians required of them insofar as safe distancing and staying home are concerned …

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    There are some black hats in Valley Village, far more than when I was a kid, but their numbers haven't been growing exceptionally fast in this century.
  61. @utu
    Flu mortality is usually higher in NY than in California.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

    Thanks. That shows NY death rate about 18% greater. 18.4 vs. 15.6 per 100,000.

    Important to note that those death rates are age adjusted so they actually don’t capture Travis’s demographic point. The raw number of deaths is given as well. 5,521 for NY, 7,553 for CA

    Using 2018 population figures of 19.53 million for NY and 39.46 million for CA we calculate raw deaths per 100,00 as 28.3 for NY and 19.1 for CA so you can see that the raw difference is even larger (>2x the percentage difference!). As one would expect from Travis’s point.

  62. @Keypusher
    I can tell you that New York City was pretty shut down the week of March 16. The schools were closed (an announcement was made over the weekend — I really felt sorry for the parents of public schoolchildren). I went to the office once that week and had the place largely to myself.

    The Times ran an article yesterday saying that half the people who have died in the city might have been spared if it had shut down a week sooner. I wonder if the evidence for that is nothing more than the timing of the shutdown in NY v. California.

    What is needed beyond a bare chronology is accurate statistics, if they exist, of how much New Yorkers and Californians were actually moving about/group socializing at the time. My own WAG is that by March 16 the damage was largely done in NYC.

    We bugged out of Manhattan the evening of Sunday, March 15, with shutdown imminent. Things had certainly gotten serious by then, and people were already behaving accordingly

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    And I came back here from a wonderful vacation in Nicaragua on the 14th. You are a lot smarter than I am.
  63. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    So...... when will the eighth-grade mathletes like Ron Unz acknowledge the coronahoax never ever even for five minutes went exponential?

    For the love of FSM please stop saying that the deaths (and cases) didn’t grow exponentially. They absolutely did in the beginning for several weeks and months in some cases. Then they slowed down.

    Again this phenomenon clearly demonstrated exponential growth behavior (and still does e.g. deaths in Louisiana though thankfully new cases have slowed a lot)

    Arguing WHY they slowed down or how people overreacted and should have waited longer, please be my guest.
    But just stop claiming it wasn’t exponential because it weakens your argument and, by extension, that of the whole “this was overreaction” side. (i forgot the quippy name… “minimizers” ?)

  64. @unit472
    Florida's demographics are not unlike New York's except more elderly. Even if you accept the idea that there are two strains of the virus with New York's being more deadly Florida would have the New York variant since there is far more winter travel between New York and Florida than between Florida and California. Governor De Santis only called for a limited shelter in place order after the media started howling about college spring breakers frolicking on Florida's beaches. Yet no major outbreak in Florida just an elevated (18%) positive level on tests in Dade County. Why?

    You are really only left with the previously discussed issue of public transit. Florida doesn't have any to speak of. The elderly, outside of nursing homes, already knew the risks they faced and were avoiding crowded venues and if they had to travel they did it in their cars.

    I agree, disregard disagree

  65. @Daniel H
    Truth, I (and many others) think the whole matter is a farce, an hysterical over-reaction. Time may tell.

    Truth, I (and many others) think the whole matter is a farce, an hysterical over-reaction. Time may tell.

    I think Scott Adams is right, when he says that time will not tell.

    If the outcome is low in severity, then both sides will say they were right:
    1) The severity was low, because of the tough measures.
    2) The severity was low, because this was a hysterical over-reaction.

    Indeed, both sides will be more certain they were correct, and they will have more data to back up their point of view.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    I think Scott Adams is right, when he says that time will not tell.

    If the outcome is low in severity, then both sides will say they were right:
    1) The severity was low, because of the tough measures.
    2) The severity was low, because this was a hysterical over-reaction.

    Indeed, both sides will be more certain they were correct, and they will have more data to back up their point of view.
     
    That's often the case, but probably not in this situation.

    Right now, it looks like the per capita death rate in NY will be 40x to 50x greater than in California. Deaths here may end up being so low that people might ordinarily complain about the measures taken to avert them. But then they'll look at NY and a few other places, and decide otherwise...
  66. @The Germ Theory of Disease
    "an hysterical over-reaction"

    Actually it has been a calculated, deliberate over-reaction: a manufactured hysteria designed to create a chaos and a crisis which would not have existed otherwise.

    Look at the whole thing like a chess problem:

    Throughout Dec/Jan there was little coverage of the Wuhan situation, and both Dem Government and Dem Media Machine were focused with laser-like intensity on the incredibly pressing issue of whether the President said something mean to some guy in Ukraine during a phone call. Go back through the voluminous Dem presidential debates with the original Broadway cast of the Banana Splits, and try to find how many Democrat wizards asked far-reaching questions about Wuhan virus.

    When Trump closed off travel from China at end of Jan, the Dems howled Racist Nazi like trained seals. Dems howl racist Nazi at Trump 24/7 no matter what. If Trump had rolled out social distancing practice and crashed the economy in Feb, Dems would have howled racist evil authoritarian without evidence Nazi, defied social distancing as a matter of Resistance! and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.

    IOW there was no practical window for Trump to take effective measures before he actually did so.

    But even that doesn't matter because there was never a national crisis, as we are seeing now: just a rather nastier than usual flu bug which culls the weak mostly. The MSM had a variety of ways to play the story, best practice would have been, Whoa it's nasty out there this winter everyone! Wash your hands a lot, cover your face in public, and steer clear of vulnerable relatives or else take rational precautions.

    But no. It was the MSM's simultaneous, unanimous, full-court press decision to go completely hysterical which caused the hysteria. Why did they do this?

    -- Russiagate nonsense did not work.
    -- Impeachment nonsense did not work.
    -- in a field of 20 candidates, with a full three years to prepare, not a single compelling voice.
    -- Dem choice is between Commie Larry David and a dribbling dementia patient with a crooked and undistinguished past.

    This was a Hail Mary pass, pure and simple.

    Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites.

    …and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.

    In Chicago they and their media allies said it was racist to quit going to eat at the Chinese restaurants in Chinatown.

  67. @HenryA
    How do you explain the outlying suburban counties of New York City? Most of those counties, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland are more like Los Angeles in their residential and commuting patterns. Only a minority of commuters commute into NYC. My county Bergen in New Jersey has nearly 9,000 cases and almost 900 deaths making this county alone worse than 39 states and most countries. Bergen is suburban and most people commute by car.

    Don’t a lot of these people drive to a commuter train, take that train downtown, and in some cases take a bus or subway to the office? Around Chicago, a lot of people in Lake, Du Page, Mc Henry, Lake, Will, and suburban Cook counties, and NW Indiana, do this.

  68. @Anon87
    Agree, other factors are at play. While shutting down may have helped a bit, the US overall was way too late in reacting. The virus was most likely already spreading for a few months before March. While the virus is real, our frankly muddled and shoddy response has still resulted in a low death toll. Not exactly Plaguebolaids people were warning about. I'm wondering what I'm going to do with this 20lb bag of rice, since there is absolutely no shortage of food available.

    While shutting down may have helped a bit, the US overall was way too late in reacting. The virus was most likely already spreading for a few months before March.

    To your point, they tracked cell phone IMEIs from *one* beach in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160759/Cell-phone-data-reveals-Spring-Break-covidiots-traveled-flooding-beaches.html

    I think the heat maps that were generated make it pretty clear the tracking, testing, and shutdowns lagged far behind the virus’ spread.

    • Replies: @Anon87
    Yikes. At this point it feels like we unwillingly did what the UK was going to do and let it spread naturally and develop herd immunity. Horses are out of the barn.

    I don't know how the modern world can avoid this anymore. Travel is just too easy.
  69. @Anthony Aaron
    LA and other cities also don't have the one big thing that NYC and NY State have -- an overabundance of ultra-orthodox jewish communities where the wuhan flu has spread quickly -- the same as in israel.

    And, of course, those folks (at least initially) basically said 'fuck off' to what the politicians required of them insofar as safe distancing and staying home are concerned …

    There are some black hats in Valley Village, far more than when I was a kid, but their numbers haven’t been growing exceptionally fast in this century.

  70. @S. Anonyia
    I think that's possible. Also the worse version may have somehow reached Michigan and Louisiana, which also have high death rates. Obvious how it could get to New Orleans, not really clear why Michigan, as there isn't much travel between Italy/Michigan...maybe Iraqis/Iranians brought it back to metro Detroit after visiting relatives or going on a religious pilgrimage?

    Another factor in NY vs. California.....population density may make the viral load worse. Maybe quarantining people in their old apartments with old ventilation systems does little good?

    A lot of old apartments have steam radiators, window air conditioners, not shared ventilation.

    Shared elevators and hallways of course.

  71. @Reg Cæsar

    So Philadelphia is slightly closer to Los Angeles in commuting style than it is to New York.
     
    And carpooling and HOV lanes are a complete fraud. Everybody drives alone, everywhere. Period.

    We can finally admit it now.

    Natural gas and propane vehicles should be allowed HOV lane access.

  72. @slumber_j
    We bugged out of Manhattan the evening of Sunday, March 15, with shutdown imminent. Things had certainly gotten serious by then, and people were already behaving accordingly

    And I came back here from a wonderful vacation in Nicaragua on the 14th. You are a lot smarter than I am.

  73. @ziggurat

    Truth, I (and many others) think the whole matter is a farce, an hysterical over-reaction. Time may tell.
     
    I think Scott Adams is right, when he says that time will not tell.

    If the outcome is low in severity, then both sides will say they were right:
    1) The severity was low, because of the tough measures.
    2) The severity was low, because this was a hysterical over-reaction.

    Indeed, both sides will be more certain they were correct, and they will have more data to back up their point of view.

    I think Scott Adams is right, when he says that time will not tell.

    If the outcome is low in severity, then both sides will say they were right:
    1) The severity was low, because of the tough measures.
    2) The severity was low, because this was a hysterical over-reaction.

    Indeed, both sides will be more certain they were correct, and they will have more data to back up their point of view.

    That’s often the case, but probably not in this situation.

    Right now, it looks like the per capita death rate in NY will be 40x to 50x greater than in California. Deaths here may end up being so low that people might ordinarily complain about the measures taken to avert them. But then they’ll look at NY and a few other places, and decide otherwise…

    • Replies: @ziggurat
    Well, I suppose we will find out with time, if people begin to agree on whether tough measures in California were necessary, as well as in the nation as a whole. For now, it seems like there's a split about whether the pandemic was a big threat or a big nothing. It will be interesting, if a consensus emerges among the thoughtful people here, and the two movies merge into one. I rather hope so, but it's amazing how more information often leads to less agreement.
  74. It’s stupid have to keep saying it, but the climatic difference between NY and LA is vast.

  75. @The Wild Geese Howard

    While shutting down may have helped a bit, the US overall was way too late in reacting. The virus was most likely already spreading for a few months before March.
     
    To your point, they tracked cell phone IMEIs from *one* beach in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160759/Cell-phone-data-reveals-Spring-Break-covidiots-traveled-flooding-beaches.html

    I think the heat maps that were generated make it pretty clear the tracking, testing, and shutdowns lagged far behind the virus' spread.

    Yikes. At this point it feels like we unwillingly did what the UK was going to do and let it spread naturally and develop herd immunity. Horses are out of the barn.

    I don’t know how the modern world can avoid this anymore. Travel is just too easy.

  76. @Ron Unz

    I think Scott Adams is right, when he says that time will not tell.

    If the outcome is low in severity, then both sides will say they were right:
    1) The severity was low, because of the tough measures.
    2) The severity was low, because this was a hysterical over-reaction.

    Indeed, both sides will be more certain they were correct, and they will have more data to back up their point of view.
     
    That's often the case, but probably not in this situation.

    Right now, it looks like the per capita death rate in NY will be 40x to 50x greater than in California. Deaths here may end up being so low that people might ordinarily complain about the measures taken to avert them. But then they'll look at NY and a few other places, and decide otherwise...

    Well, I suppose we will find out with time, if people begin to agree on whether tough measures in California were necessary, as well as in the nation as a whole. For now, it seems like there’s a split about whether the pandemic was a big threat or a big nothing. It will be interesting, if a consensus emerges among the thoughtful people here, and the two movies merge into one. I rather hope so, but it’s amazing how more information often leads to less agreement.

  77. Anonymous[754] • Disclaimer says:

    “The volume has been the lowest it’s been ever.”

    This is to me the weirdest aspect, in the vein of what the Yale cardiology guy wrote in about earlier. It seems implausible that, in some kind of outlandish Michael Crichton twist, COVID is causing cessation of or substituting for other illnessess. Yet clearly people are changing their behavior and management of illness as a response to the media-vectored crisis. Are they declining elective procedures, which in turn reduces % of ICU trips? Are housebound white-collar desk jockeys suddenly acting paranoiacally germaphobic, which is expensive long-term but probably does depress accidental hospitalization overall? How much can be credited to shutting down the “acceptable level of violence” street traffic in SoCal? (with San Jose area now nearly as lethal)

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The Kinsa Big Brother thermometer data suggests that social distancing has reduced ordinary fevers by about 90%.
  78. MB says: • Website
    @The Germ Theory of Disease
    "an hysterical over-reaction"

    Actually it has been a calculated, deliberate over-reaction: a manufactured hysteria designed to create a chaos and a crisis which would not have existed otherwise.

    Look at the whole thing like a chess problem:

    Throughout Dec/Jan there was little coverage of the Wuhan situation, and both Dem Government and Dem Media Machine were focused with laser-like intensity on the incredibly pressing issue of whether the President said something mean to some guy in Ukraine during a phone call. Go back through the voluminous Dem presidential debates with the original Broadway cast of the Banana Splits, and try to find how many Democrat wizards asked far-reaching questions about Wuhan virus.

    When Trump closed off travel from China at end of Jan, the Dems howled Racist Nazi like trained seals. Dems howl racist Nazi at Trump 24/7 no matter what. If Trump had rolled out social distancing practice and crashed the economy in Feb, Dems would have howled racist evil authoritarian without evidence Nazi, defied social distancing as a matter of Resistance! and handcuffed themselves to the nearest Chinaman.

    IOW there was no practical window for Trump to take effective measures before he actually did so.

    But even that doesn't matter because there was never a national crisis, as we are seeing now: just a rather nastier than usual flu bug which culls the weak mostly. The MSM had a variety of ways to play the story, best practice would have been, Whoa it's nasty out there this winter everyone! Wash your hands a lot, cover your face in public, and steer clear of vulnerable relatives or else take rational precautions.

    But no. It was the MSM's simultaneous, unanimous, full-court press decision to go completely hysterical which caused the hysteria. Why did they do this?

    -- Russiagate nonsense did not work.
    -- Impeachment nonsense did not work.
    -- in a field of 20 candidates, with a full three years to prepare, not a single compelling voice.
    -- Dem choice is between Commie Larry David and a dribbling dementia patient with a crooked and undistinguished past.

    This was a Hail Mary pass, pure and simple.

    Think of how much TPTB hate America, and how much they hate White people. They were willing at the drop of a hat to plunge the nation into chaos and economic collapse because they hate a man who speaks for Whites.

    The Great 2020 Panic Plannedemic is all about breaking the economy, vaccinating the universe via a Windows Virus Version X microchip courtesy of Bill Gates hisself and suppressing dissent. Because Orange Man Bad has got to go.
    Unless he plays along and flattens the curve of resistance by calling for the ’08 Big Bank/Business Bailout Part II to rescue corporations from this evil pandemic.
    Fauci is on the game and FakeBook etc. all promote the party line.

    And then there’s Thomas Massie who speaks for the rest of us and asks where is all the money going to come from for this financial IV? (No wonder there’s a shortage of toilet paper. Between the Treasury and the Fed Reserve, all the available stock is going to supply the printing presses.)
    Likewise can we have people go on record as to how they voted?
    So if things ever get back to normal and the nation doesn’t descend completely to the level of a banana republic, voters might make a nominal stab at holding their legislators accountable.

    But yeah, I agree with the Don.
    Massie doesn’t belong in the Repuglican party.

  79. @Anonymous

    “The volume has been the lowest it’s been ever.”
     
    This is to me the weirdest aspect, in the vein of what the Yale cardiology guy wrote in about earlier. It seems implausible that, in some kind of outlandish Michael Crichton twist, COVID is causing cessation of or substituting for other illnessess. Yet clearly people are changing their behavior and management of illness as a response to the media-vectored crisis. Are they declining elective procedures, which in turn reduces % of ICU trips? Are housebound white-collar desk jockeys suddenly acting paranoiacally germaphobic, which is expensive long-term but probably does depress accidental hospitalization overall? How much can be credited to shutting down the "acceptable level of violence" street traffic in SoCal? (with San Jose area now nearly as lethal)

    The Kinsa Big Brother thermometer data suggests that social distancing has reduced ordinary fevers by about 90%.

    • Agree: Ron Unz
    • Replies: @res
    Thanks! Here is their March 25th article:
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/social-distancing-and-its-effect-on-reducing-the-spread-of-illness/

    A plot for California. Worth noting that the median incubation period (infection to symptoms) is about 5 days.

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image-8.png

    Here is their current data:
    https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical

    The graphic below the map for the US shows the following:
    A bit of a bump after 2/29
    Upward departure from expected starting 3/6
    Sharp decline starting 3/19 (crossing expected 3/22)
    Shallower decline starting 3/28

    As of today we are seeing 0.27% ill vs. an expected 2.51% (hence your 90%, right?).

    This usage tip was helpful:

    Identify areas where illness levels are unusually high, and investigate: we suspect that areas with illness levels that are higher than expected are likely to be early indicators of community spread of COVID-19. This is best seen in the “Atypical” mode of the map visualization above.
     
    But I can't reconcile the "Atypical" view (and its large number of N/As) with the "Observed" view. Can anyone help explain this? For example:
    - Why does the moderate level of Observed to the east of the Mississippi river not show up more dramatically in the Atypical view? Compare that region to New York.
    - Why is Florida so much worse than everywhere else in the Atypical view when it is at or below the previous two areas in the Observed view? Is it because the flu season is typically done in Florida by now?
    - Why all the N/As for the Atypical view when Observed has data?
    - Why does the Washington (state) outbreak show up on Atypical but not on Observed?

    Anyone?
  80. @The Alarmist
    I call BS ... California's lockdown was a mere few days prior to NY.

    I call BS … California’s lockdown was a mere few days prior to NY.

    Silicon Valley companies started having people working from home in early March – March 5th -well before the state wide lock down went in place. Stanford told the kids to leave campus on March 6. California’s first reported case was on January 26th – a traveler from Wuhan. She was a parent who fled Wuhan to stay with her daughter who attended Irvine Valley Community College in Orange County. Once cases started popping up in California people started shopping less and going out to eat less, with Chinese restaurants being hard hit – so people were modifying their behavior early.

    I don’t know why the media is trying to peddle NY had coronavirus before California/the west coast – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8206625/America-hit-COVID-19-two-continents-studies-suggest.html – “ Coronavirus likely came to the US first from Europe, circulating unseen among New Yorkers for weeks before the state’s first case was diagnosed, and even before it arrived in Washington state, where the first American case was confirmed. “ – but it doesn’t pass the common sense test. NY state didn’t even report their first case until March 1. It’s not like they wouldn’t have been on the lookout for it once the Washington State case hit the news.

    As for lockdowns being the reason California is doing so well, maybe partially due to that. We don’t live on top of each other, we don’t take mass transit, most people barely know their neighbors let alone gather in huggy/kissy ethnic enclaves, our mild climate lets us get outdoors and open the windows, our state has better quality medical care than NYC, and perhaps most importantly, the west coast Chinese nationals and Chinese Americans made their relatives put on a mask once they came back from traveling to Wuhan. It would certainly explain why heavily Asians cities aren’t noticeably more hard hit than other cities in California. The unsuspecting people who traveled back to New York from Europe had no clue what they brought back with them and it just spread and spread in the crowded subway air and high rise elevators.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Sounds reasonable.
  81. @AnonAnon

    I call BS … California’s lockdown was a mere few days prior to NY.
     
    Silicon Valley companies started having people working from home in early March - March 5th -well before the state wide lock down went in place. Stanford told the kids to leave campus on March 6. California’s first reported case was on January 26th - a traveler from Wuhan. She was a parent who fled Wuhan to stay with her daughter who attended Irvine Valley Community College in Orange County. Once cases started popping up in California people started shopping less and going out to eat less, with Chinese restaurants being hard hit - so people were modifying their behavior early.

    I don’t know why the media is trying to peddle NY had coronavirus before California/the west coast - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8206625/America-hit-COVID-19-two-continents-studies-suggest.html - “ Coronavirus likely came to the US first from Europe, circulating unseen among New Yorkers for weeks before the state's first case was diagnosed, and even before it arrived in Washington state, where the first American case was confirmed. “ - but it doesn’t pass the common sense test. NY state didn’t even report their first case until March 1. It’s not like they wouldn’t have been on the lookout for it once the Washington State case hit the news.

    As for lockdowns being the reason California is doing so well, maybe partially due to that. We don’t live on top of each other, we don’t take mass transit, most people barely know their neighbors let alone gather in huggy/kissy ethnic enclaves, our mild climate lets us get outdoors and open the windows, our state has better quality medical care than NYC, and perhaps most importantly, the west coast Chinese nationals and Chinese Americans made their relatives put on a mask once they came back from traveling to Wuhan. It would certainly explain why heavily Asians cities aren’t noticeably more hard hit than other cities in California. The unsuspecting people who traveled back to New York from Europe had no clue what they brought back with them and it just spread and spread in the crowded subway air and high rise elevators.

    Sounds reasonable.

  82. @S. Anonyia
    I think that's possible. Also the worse version may have somehow reached Michigan and Louisiana, which also have high death rates. Obvious how it could get to New Orleans, not really clear why Michigan, as there isn't much travel between Italy/Michigan...maybe Iraqis/Iranians brought it back to metro Detroit after visiting relatives or going on a religious pilgrimage?

    Another factor in NY vs. California.....population density may make the viral load worse. Maybe quarantining people in their old apartments with old ventilation systems does little good?

    Detroit had many auto companies and suppliers. Lots of travel between China and Europe for this business.

  83. @Steve Sailer
    The Kinsa Big Brother thermometer data suggests that social distancing has reduced ordinary fevers by about 90%.

    Thanks! Here is their March 25th article:
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/social-distancing-and-its-effect-on-reducing-the-spread-of-illness/

    A plot for California. Worth noting that the median incubation period (infection to symptoms) is about 5 days.

    Here is their current data:
    https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical

    The graphic below the map for the US shows the following:
    A bit of a bump after 2/29
    Upward departure from expected starting 3/6
    Sharp decline starting 3/19 (crossing expected 3/22)
    Shallower decline starting 3/28

    As of today we are seeing 0.27% ill vs. an expected 2.51% (hence your 90%, right?).

    This usage tip was helpful:

    Identify areas where illness levels are unusually high, and investigate: we suspect that areas with illness levels that are higher than expected are likely to be early indicators of community spread of COVID-19. This is best seen in the “Atypical” mode of the map visualization above.

    But I can’t reconcile the “Atypical” view (and its large number of N/As) with the “Observed” view. Can anyone help explain this? For example:
    – Why does the moderate level of Observed to the east of the Mississippi river not show up more dramatically in the Atypical view? Compare that region to New York.
    – Why is Florida so much worse than everywhere else in the Atypical view when it is at or below the previous two areas in the Observed view? Is it because the flu season is typically done in Florida by now?
    – Why all the N/As for the Atypical view when Observed has data?
    – Why does the Washington (state) outbreak show up on Atypical but not on Observed?

    Anyone?

    • Replies: @vhrm
    According to the color key on the map and it's tooltip it's showing _Cumulative_ Atypical which i take to mean sum of Atypical over time
    whereas the Observed is current snapshot.

    As seen in the overall national scale avg over time graph the atypical high ended 2+ weeks ago. The March 25th article with California and Florida data show strong downward trend so presumably that kept going and that's how it ended up "low" on the Observed.

    Idk what their logic is to not show current Atypical instead if the idea is surveillance.
  84. @XYZ (no Mr.)
    This seems like straightforward propaganda aimed at getting Californians to continue to accept shelter orders without complaint, while simultaneously acting as support for the recent hagiographies in the news I've seen of various local public health officers. For the Bay Area core counties, 7 million strong, at least the data is consistent with your previous entry on subways: most of the Bay Area is like San Jose when it comes to commuting. San Francisco is little more than 10 percent of the region's population, and an outlier. San Jose and all of Santa Clara County, Alameda County, Contra Costa County, and most of San Mateo County are literally like Southern cities when it comes to transportation, and living is pretty spread out.

    Yet New York City is strangely seen as comparable to here, and without the strong expertise and foresight of our health officers social distancing our ass a whole two days before NYC, we would have undoubtedly suffered the same fate. It's complete nonsense of course, and plenty of Southern states -- there's a lot more than Louisiana out there -- will end up fine, with a per capita Wuhan virus death count comparable to California, and with more lackadaisical approaches to shelter orders.

    I agree with much -- but certainly not all -- of the shelter order actions where I live. But this attempt at self congratulation without a rigorous look on perhaps maybe our conditions, and not our decision makers, is what made the difference, is pretty pathetic.

    I doubt most of the involved, 4D chess style conspiracy theories about why this or that or the other national trend of major event occurred. The more people necessary to make a conspiracy work, the less likely it is to ever come off. I pin that critical number at around 50 people, which is the most a charismatic and intelligent leader can personally and directly manage under extremely high stress and absolute operational security. There is a reason that is the upper limit for platoon size… pretty much throughout all of military history, predating the Legions, even.

    So stuff that can be carried off like the terrorist attacks in NYC 20 years ago? Yeah, conspiracy. Of about 50 guys directly operationally involved. The idea that a bunch of room-temperature IQ G-men came together in their hundreds or thousands to pull off some kind of simultaneous plane crash/controlled detonation/cover up type thing is way less plausible because you have blown that 50 men critical limit way out the window.

    So I don’t think this was a big conspiracy like that in terms of the USA trying to condition people one way or another. It is just that the first instinct of a ‘soft’ oligarchy like ours is to oppress and restrict personal freedoms. Especially when the threat vector is so non-discriminating as a virus. I’ve noticed people of a certain tribe are far more concerned about virulence than those of the others, for interesting psychosocial reasons.

    Still, the entire fuck up shows how little the Boomers and Silents care for the younger generations, who they have completely fucked over already. Another entire Iraq war worth of spending because they elderly couldn’t bear to be quarantined while the young and hale went about their business with a mask and some hand sanitizer. The taxes that repay this debt (I kid…) should be levied exclusively from the senior class.

    Also– why wasn’t there a a big, WW2 style manufacturing effort to just pump out a shit-ton of those anti-viral UV lights? Have them installed everywhere, pulse them on for one minute out of ten on any florescent lighted building in America. It kills 98% of exposed bacteria and ruins the RNA of Viruses within 10s exposure. Just mandate them as the new federal building code, and order mass production. Certainly would not have cost 6 Trillion dollars, and would have protected us from future pandemics as well. People could just wear sunscreen if they were afraid of the radiation, frankly they should be anyway.

  85. Possible interesting NYC vs Philly comparison, NJ just across the Hudson and NYC vs NJ just across the Delaware river and Philly.

    https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/covid2019_dashboard.shtml

    Both have large number of commuters across the river inside trains. They also have internal commuting, Black populations ect. Or maybe Newark and Camden cannot be compared?

  86. @The Alarmist
    I call BS ... California's lockdown was a mere few days prior to NY.

    Yeah. And Vegas shut down after both LA and NYC . . . what are they at, 100 deaths? The strip is as packed as any NYC street.

  87. @res
    Thanks! Here is their March 25th article:
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/social-distancing-and-its-effect-on-reducing-the-spread-of-illness/

    A plot for California. Worth noting that the median incubation period (infection to symptoms) is about 5 days.

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image-8.png

    Here is their current data:
    https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical

    The graphic below the map for the US shows the following:
    A bit of a bump after 2/29
    Upward departure from expected starting 3/6
    Sharp decline starting 3/19 (crossing expected 3/22)
    Shallower decline starting 3/28

    As of today we are seeing 0.27% ill vs. an expected 2.51% (hence your 90%, right?).

    This usage tip was helpful:

    Identify areas where illness levels are unusually high, and investigate: we suspect that areas with illness levels that are higher than expected are likely to be early indicators of community spread of COVID-19. This is best seen in the “Atypical” mode of the map visualization above.
     
    But I can't reconcile the "Atypical" view (and its large number of N/As) with the "Observed" view. Can anyone help explain this? For example:
    - Why does the moderate level of Observed to the east of the Mississippi river not show up more dramatically in the Atypical view? Compare that region to New York.
    - Why is Florida so much worse than everywhere else in the Atypical view when it is at or below the previous two areas in the Observed view? Is it because the flu season is typically done in Florida by now?
    - Why all the N/As for the Atypical view when Observed has data?
    - Why does the Washington (state) outbreak show up on Atypical but not on Observed?

    Anyone?

    According to the color key on the map and it’s tooltip it’s showing _Cumulative_ Atypical which i take to mean sum of Atypical over time
    whereas the Observed is current snapshot.

    As seen in the overall national scale avg over time graph the atypical high ended 2+ weeks ago. The March 25th article with California and Florida data show strong downward trend so presumably that kept going and that’s how it ended up “low” on the Observed.

    Idk what their logic is to not show current Atypical instead if the idea is surveillance.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    AHA! I'd like to introduce their Match 31st post into evidence to ridicule the lockdown:

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Santa-Clara-and-Miami-Dade-County-Share-of-Population-with-Flu-Like-Illness-1.png

    from https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    This just adds Miami-Dade to the previous graph, and there it's shutdown was clearly post-peak and significantly so if we take into account that actions are refected in the graph lagged by that incubation period...

    (one caveat: idk how well this data is corrected. From other articles it sounds like they donate some of these things to schools or school districts? If that's part of their source of data it would stop once schools are closed. )
    , @res
    Thanks! That makes sense. I wish we could see daily versions of that US map for observed cases over the past month. Given the lag between onset of symptoms and death (say something like 9-16 days) I would be expecting daily deaths to follow the observations trend down with that lag. But we don't seem to be seeing that yet.

    For example, the CA observations started trending down on 3/20 (22 days ago), but daily deaths are still predicted to keep increasing for the next three days.
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

    I wonder if there is any way to estimate the relative contributions of COVID/other to the Kinsa observations. The different fatality rates means that matters.

    P.S. I wonder how many Kinsa users went into the hospital and whether they kept using their thermometers once there.
  88. @vhrm
    According to the color key on the map and it's tooltip it's showing _Cumulative_ Atypical which i take to mean sum of Atypical over time
    whereas the Observed is current snapshot.

    As seen in the overall national scale avg over time graph the atypical high ended 2+ weeks ago. The March 25th article with California and Florida data show strong downward trend so presumably that kept going and that's how it ended up "low" on the Observed.

    Idk what their logic is to not show current Atypical instead if the idea is surveillance.

    AHA! I’d like to introduce their Match 31st post into evidence to ridicule the lockdown:

    from https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    This just adds Miami-Dade to the previous graph, and there it’s shutdown was clearly post-peak and significantly so if we take into account that actions are refected in the graph lagged by that incubation period…

    (one caveat: idk how well this data is corrected. From other articles it sounds like they donate some of these things to schools or school districts? If that’s part of their source of data it would stop once schools are closed. )

    • Replies: @res
    Good find! Those two plots make it look like the key event is schools closing followed by about a four day lag before the trends start turning down strongly. It would be interesting to see a similar analysis done for more places.

    I should add that the really nice thing about this Kinsa data is the relatively short lag between infection and symptoms (e.g. the fevers they are detecting). I don't know what kind of sampling bias there might be (e.g. do people use their Kinsa thermometers more reliably when more concerned?), but I suspect the bias is less than the highly variable testing we see.

  89. @vhrm
    According to the color key on the map and it's tooltip it's showing _Cumulative_ Atypical which i take to mean sum of Atypical over time
    whereas the Observed is current snapshot.

    As seen in the overall national scale avg over time graph the atypical high ended 2+ weeks ago. The March 25th article with California and Florida data show strong downward trend so presumably that kept going and that's how it ended up "low" on the Observed.

    Idk what their logic is to not show current Atypical instead if the idea is surveillance.

    Thanks! That makes sense. I wish we could see daily versions of that US map for observed cases over the past month. Given the lag between onset of symptoms and death (say something like 9-16 days) I would be expecting daily deaths to follow the observations trend down with that lag. But we don’t seem to be seeing that yet.

    For example, the CA observations started trending down on 3/20 (22 days ago), but daily deaths are still predicted to keep increasing for the next three days.
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

    I wonder if there is any way to estimate the relative contributions of COVID/other to the Kinsa observations. The different fatality rates means that matters.

    P.S. I wonder how many Kinsa users went into the hospital and whether they kept using their thermometers once there.

    • Agree: vhrm
  90. @vhrm
    AHA! I'd like to introduce their Match 31st post into evidence to ridicule the lockdown:

    https://www.kinsahealth.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Santa-Clara-and-Miami-Dade-County-Share-of-Population-with-Flu-Like-Illness-1.png

    from https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    This just adds Miami-Dade to the previous graph, and there it's shutdown was clearly post-peak and significantly so if we take into account that actions are refected in the graph lagged by that incubation period...

    (one caveat: idk how well this data is corrected. From other articles it sounds like they donate some of these things to schools or school districts? If that's part of their source of data it would stop once schools are closed. )

    Good find! Those two plots make it look like the key event is schools closing followed by about a four day lag before the trends start turning down strongly. It would be interesting to see a similar analysis done for more places.

    I should add that the really nice thing about this Kinsa data is the relatively short lag between infection and symptoms (e.g. the fevers they are detecting). I don’t know what kind of sampling bias there might be (e.g. do people use their Kinsa thermometers more reliably when more concerned?), but I suspect the bias is less than the highly variable testing we see.

  91. from https://www.kinsahealth.co/tale-of-two-cities-atypical-illness-trends-for-santa-clara-and-miami-dade-county/

    (more caveats:
    – The text there talks about “excess illness” and total illness in its one paragraph but the graph is only total. I wish they’d showed both.

    – It is conceivable that Corona-chan transmits easier than other flu-like infections they’re detecting. In that case it’s possible that the lighter measures knocked down the overall number, but it took the stronger measures to slow down Sars-cov-2 to an acceptable level. Possible, but definitely not established.)

  92. I thought this was a good article about Kinsa:
    https://builtin.com/healthcare-technology/smart-thermometer-coronavirus-spread

    Link to the top level of their blog:
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/about-us/blog/

    New York city data as of 3/29. Notice that the trend there was also already down before the stay at home order.
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/early-social-distancing-measures-reduce-the-spread-of-illness-in-new-york-city/
    It looks to me like the restrictions on >500 person gatherings started the downtrend and closing schools/restaurants/bars accelerated it.

    This post gives an idea of their user demographics. It looks like they have more uniform representation than I expected.
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/the-demographics-behind-kinsa-insights-and-the-us-health-weather-map/

    Their most recent post indicates they have an average warning of 14 days before the first death. This is very much like the symptoms-death time lag. I wonder why they had so little warning for Washington/California/Florida?
    https://www.kinsahealth.co/kinsas-atypical-illness-level-as-an-early-warning-signal-for-covid-19-cases/

    It seems to me this technology could be extremely useful for calibrating adaptive countermeasures during a second wave.

  93. What’s the ratio for Hong Kong?

  94. @Bugg
    2 things NYC could have done. While it eventually did close the public schools, Diblasio did so very reluctantly. At last report 19 Department of Education employees' deaths have been attributed to COVID. There are reports that his imbecile PC AA schools chancellor ordered schools not to report COVIS infections in early March to the City's Department of Health. If instead they had closed the schools even a few days sooner, some of those people would be alive and numerous infections never happen.

    More problematic; the subways and buses should have been shut down. To idiot liberal NYers, think is unthinkable. The NY Post featured a story yesterday of a Transit worker who while working his ass off explained the subway cars are cleaned and sanitized every 3 days. When you consider the number of passengers, that simply doesn't accomplish much. And Diblasio has refused to remove the homeless bums who practically live in the subway system. Liberals think of the subway as NY's lifeblood, but that can work against you. The subway now acts the same way an infected circulatory system spreads the infection by pumping blood throughout the body.

    Sadly NYC has a mindset that the subway is some kind of God-given right. Nobody in city nor NY state government is questioning that urban density and mass transit may not be unalloyed good things. This is going to accelerate the movement of the financial services industry out of Manhattan, and with it, NY's tax base. SALT was already doing so; the stories of high tax suburban bedroom communities around the tristate area filled with for sale signs and on line realty listings are legion. Now going to work in Manhattan by itself could kill you; no thanks. Technology is such you can work from home, or at least some sprawling office park out in America that you can drive your car to easily. Diblasio is demanding that rent and mortgage payments be forgiven for a few months, but he is not agreeing to forego NYC realty tax payments.

    Simply the car-centric suburban sprawl liberals decry is a lot healthier for you than being in a dense centralized public transit city.

    The simple problem is that Americans (every angloid nation in general really) can’t figure out the middle ground

    EITHER it’s packed like sardines or spread outh with no services anywhere.

    Solution? Change zoning laws so all residential zone area allows up to 20% commercial. Bam, suddenly suburbs start being walkable, the idiotic subdivision system is dead by mexican cartel style decapitation this will cause.

    But nope! That would reduce some retard’s profit by 0,0000001% and piss of 2000 gorillion chimp tier IQ soccer moms! Haram!

    Infinite residential suburbs! MANDATORY car travel even across the street is the future, all because apparently some people have mandatory autism

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