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Here is the full report from Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College, UK.

There appears to be a lot of misinformation out there about what it says from various journalists trying to grasp a complicated document on the fly. Don’t assume it says that the Imperial College is walking back their forecasts of high death rate without massive suppression. I haven’t read it carefully yet.

 
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  1. Coemgen says:

    Still reading the full report but Ctrl+F+border yields 0/0 results.

  2. So it’s just Logan’s Runny Nose?

  3. the Imperial College is walking back there* forecasts of high death rate without massive suppression.

    *their

  4. Anonymous[361] • Disclaimer says:

  5. Thud says: • Website

    Most of us over in the UK understand its because of new information to model on and the new information comes from the expected success of the restrictions here, not sure who is confused.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  6. anon[852] • Disclaimer says:

    Thanks, a primary source is always preferable to some popular sci magazine.

  7. Coemgen says:

    OT: thanks to my chronic insomnia I watched this on PBS last night early this morning: https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/east-lake-meadows/

    It’s like Pruitt-Igoe Part Deux. I guess we could add Cabrini Green to the list but I’m less familiar with CG’s circumstances.

    Those damn buildings …

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  8. This debate is starting to evolve in a very strange way. People are acting as if we know how the epidemic will unfold under various scenarios and it is a matter of deciding what we value: saving (mostly older) lives versus saving small businesses and the economy. And thus people are starting to frame the different arguments in terms of values and morals.

    I personally think that’s a false dichotomy–there’s no trade off. We either make the right choice and minimize damage to the economy and to people’s health, or we make the wrong choice and we damage both. It’s not either/or, it’s both/neither. If we overestimate the danger of the epidemic and take unnecessary precautions, that will obviously damage the economy via the shutdown. However it will also damage human health. Right now hospitals have stopped or cut way back on things like cancer screening, and completely stopped doing procedures that are not strictly necessary but markedly improve quality of life, because they are waiting for a big surge of patients that may or may not come. And obviously economic malaise leads to things like depression, suicide, violence, etc.

    On the other hand if we underestimate the danger of the epidemic and it burns bright and fast, that will kill a lot of octegenarians, but it’s also going to carry away a lot of people in their 40s and 50s, the age group that possess most of the technical know-how needed in a complex industrial society. It will also kill a lot of relatively young health care workers, (who may stop showing up to work) and indirectly kill young people who can’t get timely treatment for things like trauma or appendicitis. Aside from the human cost, all of this would be very very bad for the economy in the long run. No one is going to want to go to a sporting event or a casino or a conference for years and years after an event like that–forget bailing these industries out, they are gone forever.

    So it’s not a question of save the economy/save the oldsters. It’s do the right thing/do the wrong thing. The problem is this is a novel virus, we don’t have a firm handle on the true R0, the true fatality rate, we don’t know for sure if it will ebb during the warmer months, we don’t know if it will evolve towards a less virulent form over time, we just don’t know very much compared to influenza which we see every year. The uncertainty in all this stuff is huge. So depending on what you plug in to your models you can argue that this is a catastrophe unfolding or a nothingburger. In short, we need the data.

    • Replies: @BB753
    , @Hail
  9. utu says:

    They used this paper for input mortality rates into their models:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1
    Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease
    Robert Verity et al.

    “We estimate the mean duration from onset-of-symptoms to death to be 17.8 days (95% credible interval, crI 16.9,19.2 days) and from onset-of-symptoms to hospital discharge to be 22.6 days (95% crI 21.1,24.4 days). We estimate a crude CFR of 3.67% (95% crI 3.56%,3.80%) in cases from mainland China. Adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment of milder cases in Wuhan relative to the rest of China, we obtain a best estimate of the CFR in China of 1.38% (95% crI 1.23%,1.53%) with substantially higher values in older ages. Our estimate of the CFR from international cases stratified by age (under 60 or 60 and above) are consistent with these estimates from China. We obtain an overall IFR estimate for China of 0.66% (0.39%,1.33%), again with an increasing profile with age. Interpretation”

    And they used three-day doubling time in the incident of death.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  10. Anon[242] • Disclaimer says:

    Nah, Imperial College is absolutely walking back their ridiculous claims.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  11. Friendly reminder Wuhan (China) flu is a nothing burger being used by the media to generate hysteria and crash the economy to hurt Trumps chances of reelection. Which btw isn’t working, as he is polling even higher in a bad economy, LOL. Trump gets ratings bump amid coronavirus crisis.

    A Tale Of Two Pandemics: Media Downplayed Swine Flu Outbreak Under Obama

    The day after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic, and President Donald Trump gave a national address, CNN’s front page was almost entirely devoted to coronavirus.

    Although everyone seems to have forgotten the swine flu was even a thing, it infected nearly 61 million people in the U.S. from spring 2009 through early 2010. And it claimed as many as 18,000 lives, according to a Centers for Disease Control study published in 2011. In total, the disease is now believed to have caused more than 200,000 deaths worldwide.

    (As of this writing, confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S. are a little over 1,700, with 40 deaths attributed to the virus. Worldwide, confirmed cases number fewer than 130,000 and just over 4,700 people have died.)

    The swine flu was a serious enough outbreak for President Barack Obama to declare a public health emergency in late April 2009.

    Yet the press barely covered any of these events.

    When the WHO declared the swine flu “unstoppable” on June 11, 2009, CNN didn’t even lead with that story on its homepage. It was in a pile of links on the side of the page.

    A week later, there was no mention of the swine flu anywhere on CNN’s home page.

    The WHO’s announcement rated only a photo on the New York Times’s front page, with a story that was buried on page A11.

    When Obama declared a national emergency, CNN didn’t get around to mentioning the death toll of the disease until the 10th paragraph. By that point, millions had been infected and 1,000 people in the U.S. had died.

    The day after Obama’s declaration, CNN carried only a single link to the swine flu story in its “Newspulse” section. It ranked below the headline: “Wayward flight’s co-pilot denies arguing.”

    The Times’ story about Obama’s declaration didn’t mention the death toll in the U.S. until the fourth paragraph. Two days later, the swine flu was off the Times’ front page again.

    • Replies: @res
  12. Anonymous[274] • Disclaimer says:

    So Amy Klobuchar’s CV positive husband has trouble breathing then is hospitalized and then achieves fantastic health u-turn and returns home…..

    And she won’t say what the treatment was!

    Q: Why not tell the whole world and help save lives?

    twitter.com/amyklobuchar

    A: Because it was the Trump Treatment?…. hydroxycholorquine & azithromycin for me but not for thee? .

    • Replies: @Che Blutarsky
    , @Art Deco
  13. …a model of successful suppression based on more aggressive control measures.

    Suppression of what? The disease? The data? The dissent?

    • Replies: @Charon
  14. danand says:

    Looks like over a year period with no action at all ~100 million dead, vs the 60 million projected to leave earth pre SARS-CoV-2 release/escape.

    No intervention = 40M additional (to 60M that die of other normal/typical causes)
    “Total lockdown” = 1.3M add”…….
    Probable with current intervention = 10M add……

  15. LondonBob says:

    Ferguson has backtracked, he is just claiming he hasn’t backtracked because the government has implemented some measures that we were going to mostly implement anyway. So he can claim to have been right even though he accepts that his forecast will probably be out by a multiple of twenty five. Oxford is right, Imperial is wrong.

    Speaking of which I see US unemployment claims were 3.3million, the previous record was 650k, almost as big a difference as between 500k and 20k.

  16. I have read it. You have the executive summary at the beginning, which is what most journalists will read, but if I had to sum it up in one line, it would be “curtains for Florida” and “it is a good thing the US has Medicare.”

    Since it is mostly a case of the poor die young, poorer communities tend to have a lower average age, and the communities where there will be the greatest demand will be those where there are a lot of older people. 25% of the people in Florida are 65 or over so rising sea levels and hurricanes may not be our greatest problem this year.

    The communities that do best will be those that have the most hospital beds. This is not in the report, but my understanding is that Germany and Austria have far more hospital beds per head than countries such as the US and the UK. Hospitals in the US like to get patients out very, very quickly, sending them home a day or so after open heart surgery to facilitate bed usage in hospitals.

    Same seems to go for Intensive Care beds

    What is not clear is how useful are nursing home beds, of which Florida has many. On the one hand they do have qualified nurses available and have managers who are qualified nurses and know about infection control, on the other hand, they are understaffed and don’t have much stuff like ventilators, though they may have oxygen. A nursing home employee told me last week that employees were given cotton bandanas to cover their faces, like playing cops and robbers.

    One problem in nursing homes is that many people are living close together and an epidemic can easily spread. If residents are kept bed bound, they are more likely to die than if they are up and about and socializing with friends and family.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  17. George says:

    It seems to examine 3 Covid strategies.

    In the case of North America (Table 1):

    Do nothing and stick with that strategy and they predict 2,981,000 deaths.

    Do nothing, then panic after 0.2 deaths per 1000, and lockdown everthing and they predict 92,000 deaths.

    Do nothing, then panic after 1.6 deaths per 1000, and lockdown everthing and they predict 520,000 deaths.

    The report might be a kind of response to the Swedes, Mexicans, and Brazilians, who had the cheek to disregard learned opinions, are currently in the do nothing strategy. Sweden will likely cave in at 0.2 deaths per 1000, while the S. America is made of tougher stuff and will buckle at 1.6 deaths per 1000.

    Latin America is younger so there is a smaller death rate. Btw, if you serious want some herd immunity to protect you, think Africa, they are very young and not f-ing around with curve flattening BS.

    In other news Fauci implied Covid could maybe possibly be seasonal. If so the only rational strategy is do nothing as locking down the economy every 6 months does not make sense. My personal guess is the US is F-ed as the lockdown is too profitable to insiders, but when it comes back next year there will be even less ability to manage things due to the impoverishment caused by this year’s lockdown. It is also worth noting that the term deaths really means very old people and older people with preexisting serious illnesses, so in terms of crude economics the US cannot afford shut down to keep them alive another 5 yrs when they will die of natural causes, Ok Boomer.

    And the question as to weather or not Covid has the ability to evade the immune system like the flu and infect previously infected people, also unknown.

    • Replies: @Charon
    , @Anon
    , @Grace Jones
  18. LondonBob says:
    @Anon

    They are absolutely not walking back their ridiculous claims, just because they are now forecasting a fraction of their original estimate, this is solely because the government is doing what they say, so in fact they are right, even though their original numbers were wildly wrong.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  19. Alice says:

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?470715-101/dr-deborah-birx-coronavirus-predictions-model-match-reality

    she starts at 9 mins in, goes to about 17, and does a bunch of q and a at 19

    she says the attack rate they actually see, not that models predict, is .1%.

    that’s 1 in 1000 get the disease. so there’s no way 2.2M die because only ~400k even get the virus.

    which is lower than the seasonal flu.

    and even if the mortality rate is 2-3%, that’s 10-15k, mostly old people.

    you can stop panicking now. watch her and stop following the madness.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @danand
  20. Bill P says:

    When all of this is over, are the Chinese going to do anything to clean up their act?

    They’re already in full denial mode, and we’re letting them get away with it.

    Medieval hygiene standards have no place in a modern world connected by air travel. No more visas until they shut down the wet markets and stop using untreated human waste as fertilizer.

    We’re all paying a heavy price for their filthiness, and we will again if this doesn’t stop.

  21. res says:
    @LondonBob

    Speaking of which I see US unemployment claims were 3.3million, the previous record was 650k, almost as big a difference as between 500k and 20k.

    25x equals 5x plus ANOTHER 5x on top. Hardly “almost as big a difference.”

  22. Charon says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Well, Cuomo is saying that maybe quarantine isn’t the answer, or maybe it is, but in any case he’s a strong, decisive leader ready to step into just about any role should it become necessary.

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-admits-that-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases/

  23. @utu

    CFR on the Diamond Princess was a tenth of that. Costa Luminose even less.

    End of story. Don’t waste your time.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @FPD72
  24. Charon says:
    @George

    My personal guess is the US is F-ed as the lockdown is too profitable to insiders

    Consider that the young/poor/stupid/irresponsible segments of the population aren’t really “locking down” very much.

    How much of the populace have I just described?

    Go for a drive tomorrow if you don’t believe me.

    It can really change the calculus.

  25. Charon says:
    @Bill P

    When all of this is over, are the Chinese going to do anything to clean up their act?

    They’re already in full denial mode, and we’re letting them get away with it.

    Of course we are. Even if half of Americans are killed, it would only be a tragedy if someone said something racist.

    Note that the Chinese have been using the racism card in their official pronouncements lately. They’ve figured out our Achilles’ heel.

    • Agree: bomag
  26. @Bill P

    “no more visas until they shut down the wet markets”

    I’m pretty sure the vast majority of Americans would simply prefer “no more visas,” period.

    Not that that’ll ever stop them.

  27. Anon[969] • Disclaimer says:
    @George

    if you serious want some herd immunity to protect you, think Africa, they are very young and not f-ing around with curve flattening BS.

    I guess you missed the reports yesterday of police shoot-to-kill policies in Africa.

    I’d like to see an economist run the numbers on whether such policies would increase or decrease the number of deaths during the pandemic.

  28. Sam Patch says:

    In Kristof’s NYT column last weekend, he quoted Ferguson on “best case” for U.S. deaths: “About 1.1 million deaths,” he said.

  29. Deckin says:

    As best as I can understand it, the Cassandra model (using Italy and Princess Cruise data) has the following features:

    1. 1 million Italian infections (cases) so far (from West Hunter)
    2. a CFR of 4%

    From the comment above

    3. Infection to death averages 17 days or so

    So as of now Italy has 8215 deaths

    According to the model in 2 weeks or so (this may be generous because we’re including already occurred deaths) we should fill out to the expected 40k deaths–21k or so deaths.

    Right now, deaths in Italy seem to have leveled (of course who knows if that will hold) around 710 or so a day.

    So, as Ron Unz likes to say, we should know soon enough, based on Italy as worst case scenario, whether the Cassandra model is accurate or needs modification–or that Italy’s modification altered something in the model. Daily deaths need to basically double on average. If we don’t see that, real soon, we’ll have learned something.

    I’d earnestly like to know what I’ve got wrong about this.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  30. Anonymous[368] • Disclaimer says:

    The self-righteousness of the corona-thumpers at Unz.com and elsewhere is waxing in contrast to the disappointing steady dribble of mere facts. So I guess the high-holy Imperial College boffins’ update must somehow have fallen short of the desired Cecil B. DeMille epic for the plague-blogger set.

  31. @Anonymous

    So Amy Klobuchar’s CV positive husband has trouble breathing then is hospitalized and then achieves fantastic health u-turn and returns home…..

    And she won’t say what the treatment was!

    If Hillary was in the White House and this had happened, would you expect a higher recovery rate among Democrat voters, or Republican voters?

    • Replies: @anon
  32. Anonymous[135] • Disclaimer says:

    Tucker Carlson was shark jumping tonight. We have a long way to go to equal just the ~12k 2009 swine flu casualties.

    Hard to imagine how hysterical the media would be in say the equivalent of a 1968 Hong Kong Flu scenario where the worldwide death toll actually was in the millions …… .

  33. As usual with models: if it’s not open-source, it should be considered partisan and biased.

    In the notes, it makes it clear that it’s a SEIR model (which I have been talking about for weeks now).

    I’ve extracted a relevant part of the ICL Method section below (after the ‘MORE’ tag. I’ve tidied if up for readability: no changes to text, only a few extra CRLFs for layout).

    You will see that my SEIR model (of which more below) used very nearly the same parameter set, although mine explicitly modelled the contact rate and probability of infection (so mine’s better nyah nyah nyah).

    Speaking of which: if someone’s wandering around asymptomatic for the entire infectious period, their R[0] ought to be through the roof: at 6 people a day and just 20% risk per contact, every asymptomatic individual will generate ~11 secondaries in 10 days.

    Now: to what I used for my SEIR model- as laid out in a comment to Ron Unz on March 24 (with ICL’s parameters in square brackets where directly comparable)

    Examine the numbers in the list below, and see if you think any of them are controversial.

    • the average person has 5 contacts per day with uninfected people;
    • there’s a 20% chance of infection from contact with an infected person;
    the incubation period is 5 days [ICL: 1/a ≅ 4.36 (1/a ~ Γ(2, 0.4363)) [1]];
    • 70% of infected people have symptoms less than a cold (half of them totally symptomatic);
    the infectious period lasts for ten days [ICL: ~exp(0.47) [2]];
    21 days after infection, people are dead or recovered (assume 3.8% IFR) [ICL: 21 day mortality/recovery].

    So where the things are comparable, ICL is very well aligned with the parameters I used. To the extent that my numbers are controversial, it’s that I made the ‘infectious’ period far too long.

    There is a key difference, too: ICL split the ‘Exposed’ compartment into two compartments (perhaps asymptomatic and symptomatic? <65 and 65+? it's unclear) and configured the compartments so that the overall incubation period is about right.

    4.6 days incubation (ICL) vs 5 days (me)… smells like a tweak – artificial sub-day precision in a model that is ‘naturally’ daily is always dodgy.

    The split of the exposed compartment doesn’t make a lot of sense (if the split is by age it makes a bit more sense): it would be far better to split the Infectious compartment, since asymptomatic infected will be infectious for longer (almost for the whole time from infection to clearance: people are still shedding virus at 18 days). Note also that less than 15% of the symptomatic-infectious compartment will require hospitalisation.

    The worst thing however… and therefore time for a

    TWEAK ALERT

    There’s a really important thing about a SEIR model: once you set the parameters, you don’t get to set R[0].

    I mentioned this in a subsequent comment on March 25th:

    The SEIR estimate for R[0] is aβ/((μ+a)(μ+γ))
    where
    • 1/a is the incubation period [ICL: SET];
    • μ is the death rate; [ICL: SET]
    • γ is the recovery rate [ICL: SET];
    • β is a weird parameter that helps determine the transition equations for S and E (it operates on (IS/N) – the infection rate times the susceptible

    Those parameters are what you get to set. They are required for the SEIR model.

    So

    EITHER

    • they set at least β in their SEIR model to achieve a target R[0] of 3.0;

    OR

    • The statement “we used an age-structured stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model parameterised to match best estimates of key parameters determining the dynamics of spread of COVID-19” in the excerpt below is true.

    It cannot be both.

    Unless, of course, “best estimates of key parameters” has an embedded asterisk, whereby the meaning of “best estimates*” is to be interpreted as “estimates that give us the R[0] that we want“.

    .

    If they made available the entire model – and/or the entire model output by day, it would be possible to identify the tweaks. I suspect they just ran it with the appropriate parameters (those required to hit R[0] = 3 (or 3.3) in perpetuity) and only logged the end results.

    Note that their estimate of total infected – globally – at the end… is 7 billion.

    Odd then that Australian testing has been solidly registering at over 98% negative.

    Survey says:

    Buk… buk … buk-buk… buk-bukAAAAK

    OK Chicken Little.

    Notes.

    [1] The gamma distribution can be characterised by two parameters – shape (α) and rate (β).

    The mean of a Γ(α,β) is μ = α/β; the standard deviation is σ = √α/β

    ICL say they used μ = 4.58 and σ = 3.24.

    Since √α = μ/σ, so α = 2. β = √α/σ = 0.4363

    [2] The exponential distribution is characterised by a single parameter λ, and μ = σ = 1/λ

    ICL say that the mean was 2.09 days, so they used λ = 0.478

    [MORE]

    Extract from ICL paper ‘Method’

    To model the impact of these scenarios onthe dynamics of likely healthcare demand over time we used an age-structured stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model parameterised to match best estimates of key parameters determining the dynamics of spread of COVID-19.

    The exposed category was modelled as two separate compartments to produce a gamma-distributed incubation period of mean 4.58 days and standard deviation 3.24days.

    A single compartment was used for the infectious compartment, yielding an exponentially distributed infectious period with mean 2.09 days.

    An R0 of 3.0was used for all scenarios explored and presented in this report.

    Integration with country-specific demographies and patterns of contact between age-groups then enabled setting-specific estimation of the incidence of new infections over time.

    This incidence of new infections over time is then converted to the incidence of infections requiring hospitalisation and/or critical care.

    Both the probability that an infected person requires hospitalisation and whether they also require critical care increase with age, matching estimates given in8.

    We assume a delay of 5 days between symptom onset (assumed here to be when individuals progress from the Exposed to the Infectious compartment) and hospitalisation and that hospitalised individuals require a hospital bed for 8 days.

    If critical care is also required, we assume that individuals remain in hospital and occupy a critical bed for a further 8 days, yielding a total hospital stay of 16 days.

    Any mortality associated with COVID-19 is assumed to occur 21 days after symptom onset.

    These parameters are based on our current best understanding of the likely progression and severity of COVID-19.

    • Agree: PiltdownMan
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    , @Philip Owen
  34. utu says:
    @Philip Owen

    Passengers on Diamond Princess were isolated in their cabins. Passengers who tested positive were taken out of the ship to military hospital in Japan. Diamond Princess was not a petri dish! The epidemic was arrested there and stopped.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/trapped-on-virus-ravaged-cruise-ship-shocked-passengers-struggle-to-keep-spirits-up/2020/02/05/6fbae50c-47d3-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html

    “…passengers who tested positive […] have been transferred to hospitals…”

    “For those left on board, there is nothing to do but sit in their cabins, wait for meals to be delivered, watch television or choose from a limited selection of movies on demand. Those lucky enough to have a balcony can at least sit in the sun, look at the ocean and talk to their neighbors.”

  35. Peterike says:

    Why would I believe anything from a college or university? These people have done nothing but lie for the past 50 years at least. Credibility is far below zero.

  36. You have to wonder about some of these statistics from the Florida Department of Health.
    Columbia County, Florida

    CASE DATA FOR COLUMBIA COUNTY

    Total Cases: 3

    Residents: 3

    Conditions and Care

    Deaths: 0

    Hospitalizations: 0

    Demographics of Cases

    Age:

    Age Range: 46 to 70

    Average Age: 44

    Not sure how the average age can be 44 when the youngest case is 46.

    But get a look at this:

    CASE DATA FOR MIAMI-DADE

    Total Cases: 654

    Residents: 638

    Residents Not in Florida: 1

    Non-Residents: 15

    Conditions and Care

    Deaths: 0

    Hospitalizations: 72

    Demographics of Cases

    Age:

    Age Range: 3 to 99

    Average Age: 46

    Gender:

    Men: 390

    Women: 260

    Case Designations:

    Travel-Related: 121

    Not Travel-Related: 120

    Travel Unknown: 413

    So 654 cases in Miami-Dade with an average age of only 46, but zero deaths and only 72 hospitalizations so far. So what is the percentage death rate?

  37. “This debate is starting to evolve in a very strange way.”

    it is, but that’s because of the year 2020 hyperconnected, social media internet world blasting it nonstop all day every day.

    in the past, this would come and go like other previous pathogens and you might not even hear about it, or you’d see a 1 minute segment on the evening news one time, and that would be it. you wouldn’t know anybody who died from it and would forget it happened a few years later. because that’s about the scope of this thing. the health authorities would take the proper measures in their jobs, and the general public wouldn’t be alarmed to the point of hysteria.

    now if the news reported on literally EVERY murder, or EVERY car crash fatality, all day, EVERY day, for weeks on end, many people would start to be scared to go outside at night, or even get in their car and drive somewhere, like how people were afraid to get in the ocean after Jaws came out. fresh in their mind, all the time. if you want to see women genuinely scared, start reporting continuously about the rapes in their city. make sure to keep reminding them about the other women getting raped. there’s a rapist in town and he could be around the next corner.

    the media loves FEAR. fear sells. those nonsense predictions from ‘experts’ about 2 million people dying from a virus SELLS. plus the Democrat controlled television media is HIGHLY motivated to play this up as much as possible. that’s why they’re dropping the Trump press conferences – those were having the opposite effect they wanted.

    • Agree: Hippopotamusdrome
    • Replies: @anon
    , @Hail
  38. vhrm says:

    So if i read this correctly, their definition of “suppression” is 75% reduction in social contacts and it extinguishes the outbreak within ~30-50 days. Only a “small” fraction of the population ever gets there virus.

    Something like what was done in Wuhan, i guess.

    “mitigation” they say is “social distancing” which in their model reduces the contact rate by 40% (?). They don’t say anything about which tactics have what impact on contact rate. They’re just saying that that’s what they’re modeling (i think). This is actually the “flattening the curve” concept but it only seems to have maybe 33% less death than “unmitigated”. And more than half the people are still infected. And deaths are still in the millions.

    When shown graphs like this it’s clear why Governors / Mayors would go for “suppression” model right away…

    Although, this all leads back to the original UK plan where you have cycles of infection and suppression until herd immunity or vaccine. And it takes a year+ of this.

    We really have to figure out what social distancing tactics have what impact. Otherwise this is not actionable for refining the approach at all.

  39. @George

    Flu doesn’t evade the immune system. It’s just that there are multiple different strains of it, vaccinations only include the most common and dangerous ones, and the virus mutates quickly. COVID-19 mutates slowly in comparison.

  40. @LondonBob

    Oxford is right, Imperial is wrong.

    It’s interesting seeing two heavyweight instiutions engage in a genuine academic debate with serious consequences in real time before our eyes.

  41. FPD72 says:
    @Philip Owen

    CFR on the Diamond Princess was a tenth of that. Costa Luminose even less.

    705 passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess tested positive, of whom seven died. That’s a CFR of .99%, closer to a fourth of the Chinese CFR than a tenth. The MR was .22%, since there were 3,177 passengers and crew.

    • Replies: @FPD72
  42. Anon[172] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bill P

    As long as there’s no vaccine, the Chinese will only see their other big cities suffer like Wuhan. They only have temporary control. Once they want a working economy again, they’ll get hammered as social distancing disappears.

    • Replies: @vhrm
  43. FPD72 says:
    @FPD72

    I didn’t complete my edit in time. utu comes up with an adjusted CFR for China of 1.38%, in contrast to the Diamond Princess CFR of .99%. That is a shade less that 3/4ths of the Chinese CFR, not 1/10th.

  44. epebble says:

    Then there is this University of Washington model:

    Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June

    The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States in the next four months and may not subside until June, according to a data analysis done by University of Washington School of Medicine.

    The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally by the second week of April, though the peak may come later in some states. Some people could continue to die of the virus as late as July, although deaths should be below epidemic levels of 10 per day by June at the latest, according to the analysis.

    The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000.

    The variance is due in part to disparate rates of the spread of the virus in different regions, which experts are still struggling to explain, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, who led the study.

    The duration of the virus means there may be a need for social distancing measures for longer than initially expected, although the country may eventually be able relax restrictions if it can more effectively test and quarantine the sick, Murray said.

    The analysis also highlights the strain that will be placed on hospitals. At the epidemic’s peak, sick patients could exceed the number of available hospital beds by 64,000 and could require the use of around 20,000 ventilators. Ventilators are already running short in hard-hit places like New York City.

    The virus is spreading more slowly in California, which could mean that peak cases there will come later in April and social distancing measures will need to be extended in the state for longer, Murray said.

    Louisiana and Georgia are predicted to see high rates of contagion and could see a particularly high burden on their local healthcare systems, he added.

    The analysis assumes close adherence to infection prevention measures imposed by federal, state and local governments.

    “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions,” Murray said in a statement.

    The analysis comes as confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States continue to mount, with the World Health Organization saying the country has the potential to become the world’s new epicenter of the virus.

    https://news.trust.org/item/20200326232240-2yx1f

  45. Basically, he dropped his assumed mortality rate by a factor of ten or so based on better real world data. It’s justified. But when you go from estimating 500,000 dead to 20,000, it’s hard not to call that something of a “walk back.”

  46. anon[342] • Disclaimer says:
    @Alice

    If the attack rate is really .001, we are doomed. Because that .001 in New York has overloaded their health care system. If that goes to .01 or .1, that an increase of 10x and 100x.

    As far as what is really going on, I speculate that the oldest and sickest patients are admitted to the hospitals first and DON’T die. Not right away. They take up the limited ICU beds and linger for a couple of weeks before dying. The slightly less sick and old take up the regular rooms, and linger a couple of weeks before dying or leaving. It’s not the lethality but the unique combination of severity and lack of lethality that uses up medical resources very quickly.

    There are 35 ICU beds per 100,000 people in the US. One bed for every 3,000 people.

    I don’t know what is really going on, but it was the hospital chaos that convinced China to bring its economy to a halt. It certainly wasn’t 3,000 deaths which is 2 per million Chinese. Things in the US won’t normalize until the hospital situation quiets down.

    High level ICU support includes support for multi organ failure. It really shouldn’t be used without a reasonable probability of success.

    Meanwhile, there is quite a bit of much lower level breathing support that can be provided short of a level 1 ICU.

    • Agree: UK
  47. anon[342] • Disclaimer says:
    @Che Blutarsky

    I think the orders not to use are anti-hoarding measures.

    Thanks to a tweet by Elon Musk, President Trump says chloroquine should be available to all Americans. Sufferers of lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, who already have supply problems with the only drug that offers them relief, set social media afire with their panic.

    US doctors and other medical professionals take to hoarding the medicine for the use of themselves and those close to them, faking prescriptions to indicate they are for patients with lupus or rheumatoid arthritis.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  48. anon[342] • Disclaimer says:
    @prime noticer

    if the news reported on literally EVERY murder, or EVERY car crash fatality, all day, EVERY day, for weeks on end, many people would start to be scared to go outside at night,

    The thing is, the disruption of the medical system is news. It’s concentrated and very visible. Until that abates, nothing else matters. This won’t go away.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  49. @anon

    That doctors are hoarding a drug seems … encouraging.

    • Replies: @anon
  50. danand says:
    @Alice

    “you can stop panicking now. watch her and stop following the madness.”

    Alice, you are right, Dr. Birx essentially told us in today’s press briefing that the “crisis point” in the war has passed; unless you live in an “urban” area. She completely convinced me, her reasoning seems sound. She did not come outright and say, but her confidence seems to come from “the little reported” surveillance (random) testing derived data.

    Appears the only unknown is what occurs in the second, third, forth wave, you know, Covid-20, Covid-21, Covid-22…, of the pandemic. On that front today Dr. Fauci is saying, with a high sounding degree of confidence, we will have some form of inoculation developed, tested, and produced by then; the only thing that would limit that possibility would be funding. He’s under the impression funding won’t be an issue for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, unlike other virus vaccine efforts which ended because there just wasn’t any money/profit in producing them.

    In the meantime, Dr. Fauci sounds optimistic on the treatment front. Not a matter of do we have something, just a matter of which is of most efficacy. Mylan, for one, is ramping production of Hydroxychloroquine pills. Say they will deliver 50M tablets in a couple of weeks. Hydroxychloroquine works, it’s just a bit tricky if your heart’s not in good shape, as it tends to promote a rapid beat.

    Made me laugh a little when Dr. Birx referred to “urban” areas still going to get hit hard, almost like it was code, but likely I’m just biased. Covid-19, almost certainly going to be the “white-mans fault”, once again.

  51. vhrm says:
    @Anon

    This is what I’m not hearing much reporting on. This virus certainty jumps person to person pretty easily.

    How are reinfections going to be prevented?

    • Replies: @Alice
  52. JimDandy says:
    @anon

    Put old people on total lockdown.

  53. Ron Unz says:
    @Deckin

    So as of now Italy has 8215 deaths

    According to the model in 2 weeks or so (this may be generous because we’re including already occurred deaths) we should fill out to the expected 40k deaths–21k or so deaths.

    Right now, deaths in Italy seem to have leveled (of course who knows if that will hold) around 710 or so a day.

    Based on direct Italian media reports, Cochran has suggested that the official Italian death toll is an extreme under-estimate:

    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/just-another-flu-in-bergamo/

    For example, deaths seem have jumped almost by a factor of 5-10x in various towns, but the cause isn’t classified as Coronavirus because nobody has bothered to test for the virus (the health authorities are busy with more pressing matters). Offhand, this argument seems pretty plausible to me.

  54. Dennis Dale says: • Website

    Looks like all they’re “walking back” is the media’s breathless reception of the worst-case numbers. It’s important to understand it’s well-nigh impossible it would get that far (7b infected, 40mil deaths) before people took it upon themselves to isolate and quarantine. It is in no way a prediction. Still, you have to start here, to show the virus’ raw potential. The researchers should’ve noted that–also the uncertainty of knowing the impact of private initiative in the absence of government action.

    They’re still saying that under the best-case scenario the healthcare system will be overwhelmed. Of course they’re not factoring in (I think) any increased capacity over the next few weeks, like temporary hospitals, respirator production, etc. I sure hope that isn’t negligible. We need to open a bunch of factories making these things, at the same time we’re closing factories to mitigate covid. O the irony.

  55. eah says:

    I haven’t read it carefully yet.

    I see. (And if you had?)

    Well, no matter — perusing the (now numerous) “conspiracy theory” pieces about COVID-19 published here on unz.com, one thing I’ve learned from the comment threads (ahem, not to mention the articles themselves) is that this site is read by a great many highly qualified viral epidemiologists, who will soon pore through this new info, make sense of it, and then generously explain it to lay readers.

  56. anonguy says:
    @Ron Unz

    Italy was particularly hard hit by Spanish Flu.

    As were Italian American immigrant communities.

    I’m surprised that all you noticers haven’t noticed this yet, but much of the discussion here is raking over ground covered weeks, if not months, ago elsewhere.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  57. Why does Britain maintain an “Imperial” College? Their empire has been moribund for a long time. Does the F.U.S.A. have a “Colonial College,” or does Australia have a “Penal Colonial College?”

    (I’m just asking For Science….)

    In any event, I realise the place was founded during the days of the empire, but how have the Awakened Swarthy Invaders who rule Britain not long since changed the name and torn down all the statuary? Why, it is an indisputable fact that the very word “imperial” is a microagression (except when used to describe the realms of Mansa Musa or the Han, because Peoples of Swarth can be neither racist nor expansionist!). What madness is this?! It’s an insult to African-Europeans and Asian-Europeans throughout the island!

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  58. @Kratoklastes

    So – wishful thinking is what we’re at here: 7 Billion infected = we all arrive at the desired goal: Herd immunity!

  59. A couple of stories/data points from the UK

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/nhs-to-move-nurses-to-london-to-help-with-coronavirus-tsunami

    Nurses will be transferred to London from other parts of England under NHS plans to help hospitals in the capital facing a “tsunami” of Covid-19 patients within days, the Guardian has learned.

    In an unprecedented package of measures, the NHS will also ask doctors to sleep on site for six weeks at the newly-built Nightingale hospital, scrap limits on the number of patients nurses can look after in intensive care wards, and explore whether ventilators intended for one person can be used for two.

    NHS England has also asked its network of regional chief nurses if they can spare any of their staff, especially those specialising in intensive care, to work in London during the peak of the pandemic – expected to start early next month.

    Officials involved in the NHS’s emergency preparedness effort in London have revealed that:

    A lack of ventilators has forced NHS planners to explore whether one machine could be used to keep two patients alive, drastically increasing capacity at a stroke.

    London will have 7,500 critical care beds by the end of next week – 27 times more than the 275 it had before the epidemic began in January.

    There are fears that a lack of oxygen could hamper the drive to save lives through the massive expansion of critical care capacity – hospitals will need daily deliveries to service all the extra ventilators.

    Doctors at the newly-created Nightingale hospital at London’s ExCel centre looking after thousands of patients receiving life-or-death care will work there for at least six weeks, working five days in a row before having a break – and sleep on site.

    The sheer number of patients falling ill will see the usual staffing ratios in intensive care units scrapped temporarily so that one intensive care nurse is looking after six patients rather than one – in what doctors privately warned was an “unbelievable” relaxation that would hit care standards.

    Chris Hopson, NHS Providers’ chief executive, said hospitals in London had expanded critical care capacity between five and seven-fold in the last few weeks, but bosses at those hospitals have been alarmed by the speed at which beds are filling up in the capital.

    He said the problems had been exacerbated by medical staff being off sick with suspected coronavirus or in vulnerable groups, with 30% to 50% not at work in some trusts.

    Those in “vulnerable groups” include any health staff with a BMI of 40 or over, which means that obese NHS staff, at a time of crisis, will be spending three months at home on full pay. There are a lot of overweight staff.

    “He did not name the trust where 50% of staff are currently off sick or self-isolating because someone in their household has symptoms, but it is a London trust”

    There’s evidence that “minority communities” aren’t self-isolating.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/sharp-rise-in-number-of-coronavirus-cases-in-west-midlands

    Religious convictions and fears of social isolation could be leading to a sharp rise in the number of coronavirus transmissions in the West Midlands.

    The government has said it is investigating a spike in deaths in the area, with one of the region’s NHS trusts reporting nine deaths from the illness, the highest for any trust in the country.

    The Birmingham MP, Khalid Mahmood, said elderly Muslim and Sikh people in the area were struggling to adhere to government guidelines surrounding social distancing as they are driven by their religious convictions.

    Despite most religious services being cancelled, some older people are continuing to attend mosques and gurdwaras to pray, said Mahmood.

    He added: “Mosques and gurdwaras have told people to stay away but some of the older ones are really struggling. Part of it is because they feel religious observance is more important now than ever – they feel they may die and lose loved ones – so they need to pray. These are people who have incredibly strong religious convictions and it’s hard for them to stay away.”

    Fears of social isolation and panic buying in supermarkets, with the public queuing next to each other for hours to pay for their goods, could also be contributing to the large cluster.

    South Asians have higher diabetes rates than the natives and will be more vulnerable, but I doubt that drones are tracking mosque visitors in Small Heath as they are solo walkers in the Peak District. But it seems that a lot of the Peak District people are “large groups gathering enjoying picnics, kebabs and shisha“.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  60. @YetAnotherAnon

    “London will have 7,500 critical care beds by the end of next week – 27 times more than the 275 it had before the epidemic began in January.”

    That sounds impressive.

  61. LondonBob says:
    @Steve Sailer

    A lady on my street works as a nurse in a central London hospital, they have four wards now setup to treat coronavirus, they are currently using just one.

  62. I dunno … it seems to suggest we destroyed the world economy to save the poor.

  63. @Steve Sailer

    Big if true and not a typo! But the Excel was a huge conference centre, they’re putting 4,000 beds in it, starting if twitter is correct with 500 beds/ventilators and ramping up. Don’t know where the rest are coming from. I gather there are plans to create more such hospitals at the big exhibition centres in Birmingham and Manchester.

    The new Nightingale Hospital (Excel Centre #NightingaleHospital) is right next door to London City Airport, and military Hercules are bringing stuff in all the time. Our armed forces can’t control our open borders, but they seem pretty good at mitigating this particular consequence.

  64. LondonBob says:
    @anonguy

    I don’t why people use Italy as a benchmark, unless they want to exaggerate the threat. Italy is an outlier, the alarmists have had to drop the Britain is following the Italian path after data showed we aren’t.

  65. OT – The Incel Menace is back.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8157661/Britains-Incel-bomb-maker-told-friend-wanted-massacre-place.html

    Britain’s first ‘involuntary celibate’ bomb-maker has pleaded guilty to possessing explosive substances, downloading terror manuals and discussing plans to launch an attack.

    Anwar Said Driouich, 22, from Middlesbrough, was part of a misogynistic movement named ‘Incel’ which has been associated with at least six mass-shootings in the US.

    Another white supremacist, I see.

    Followers believe in genetic determinism and blame attractive men and women for their inability to find a partner.

    LOL. I guess it’s easier to just paste the boilerplate in.

    “Police were called by chemical supplier Aqua Plants Care when Driouich bought 10kg of ammonium nitrate online. When his family home was raided officers also found a stockpile of sulphuric acid and urea.”

    In the 1960s you could literally walk into a UK chemists shop/drugstore and buy saltpetre for gunpowder. For a long time now suppliers have been obliged to inform the police about people ordering explosive ingredients and also drug precursor chemicals.

  66. Enochian says:
    @Ron Unz

    You’ll know soon enough because the same thing will be happening in Spain, where the virus is similarly out of control. And, looking at growth curves for the virus, the U.S.

  67. • Replies: @Sean
  68. BB753 says:
    @SimpleSong

    Also, keep in mind that, whatever we choose to do, the virus will return next year, like influenza.
    I say, stick with what we know works in the short run: the South Korean approach. Isolate, test and quarantine. Assuming tests are reliable.

    • Replies: @SimpleSong
  69. Anonymous[438] • Disclaimer says:

    THIS KLOBUCHAR SILENCE ON DETAILS OF HUSBAND’S RECOVERY IS A DISGRACE

    Her husband did not have a mild case:

    He kept having a temperature and a bad, bad cough and when he started coughing up blood he got a test and a chest X-ray and they checked him into a hospital in Virginia because of a variety of things including very low oxygen levels which haven’t really improved. He now has pneumonia and is on oxygen but not a ventilator…

    HE WAS ESSENTIALLY FUCKING DYING ON MAR 23RD!

    BUT MIRACLE CURE MUST BE WITHELD BECAUSE ORANGE MAN BAD

    Disgusting liberal hive mind knows not to ask how it happened on her twitter feed!

    The hive mind KNOWS not to ask!

    • Agree: Coemgen
    • Replies: @Art Deco
  70. Cuomo admits that it might not have been a good idea to force fit people to stay in small spaces with sick people!

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-admits-that-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases/

    Funny enough, Cuomo is implicitly agreeing with Unz Review guest columnist E. Michael Jones. https://www.unz.com/ejones/the-coronavirus-and-the-culture-war/

    “Italy, in other words, is enhancing the spread of COVID19 by confining Italians to their small apartments.” – E. Michael Jones

  71. @Anonymous

    Who’s the shithole country now?

    Ok. I’ll admit any nation that has an openly traitorous bitch like Julie Ioffe yakking away from a high media perch definitely has a shitty vibe.

    This crisis is an utter refutation the infected pap Ioffe has spent her entire life spewing. This is her high IQ response.

    This is the what you just got a love about our “global cosmopolitan” verbalists. They are utterly refuted time and time again … doesn’t matter. No guilt. No shame. No rethink. Just some verbal gymnastics … “what this really means is … we were right and you goyishe kopfs need to shut up and do what we say.”

    Why do we tolerate this abuse?

  72. anon[156] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    As far as sources, that was from Pepe Escobar on Unz.com from his latest article which is interesting. Meanwhile, I actually caught the Gov. of Nevada on TV stating that his order was to prevent hoarding.

    The guy pushing this treatment, Dider Raoult, is ranked #1 in the world on this site http://expertscape.com/ex/communicable+diseases .

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300820?via%3Dihub

  73. Alice says:
    @vhrm

    Actually, it doesn’t jump easily at all. 1 in 1000 people get it. Birx was clear that was for every country studied.

    Thats a tenth of the flu in adults and a 20th or even maybe 40th of flu in kids.

    Fauci was quite confident in the treatments and preventives being developed right now even nefore a vaccine.

    It is what public health people do–contain and isolate. So the bigger q is how long can we keep the borders closed

  74. Art Deco says:
    @Anonymous

    I’m not seeing an indication he was ever in the ICU. Just had some oxygen for a few days.

  75. Realist says:
    @Anonymous

    Who’s the shithole country now?

    Country? Country? The vast majority of Covid-19 cases are in NYC…a shithole for sure. Other large American cities (shitholes) will also lead the way.

  76. @Bill P

    When all of this is over, are the Chinese going to do anything to clean up their act?

    They’re already in full denial mode, and we’re letting them get away with it.

    Yes, they are doing the pathetic–and utterly predictable–typical Chinese blame shifting, denial, etc. etc. (There’s almost certainly a bunch of internal politics going that we’re not privy to and i wouldn’t understand anyway. Despite the screeching and blame-shifting everyone there–at least all the people who understand the world and how China makes it’s money–realize China’s given themselves a huge black eye.)

    But no they aren’t going to get away with it. Right now the focus in the many nations is just dealing with this mess. But people are mad as hell. And they’ll be tremendous popular pushback on “business as usual with China. And in this case, the globalist establishment that runs cover for China is ticked off as well–they’ve seen their own economies melt down and their stock portfolios and personal wealth as well.

    China’s going to wake up to different world. Whether they are capable of taking responsibility and convincing the world “this is never going to happen again because of us” … hard to say.

    This whole deal is an object lesson–not just the virus but the response and attitudes–in “that’s what separate nations are for.”

    Let’s just hope Americans learn that lesson and don’t just have a sigh of relief and flop back to business as usual.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  77. In a nutshell.

    From the report;

    ”Given these results, the only approaches that can avert health system failure in the coming months are likely to be the intensive social distancing measures currently being implemented in many of the most affected countries, preferably combined with high levels of testing. These approaches are likely to have the largest impact when implemented early (Figure 6, Table 1). It is however important to consider the sustainability of such measures. As illustrated in Figure 7, these interventions will likely need to be maintained at some level in tandem alongside high levels of surveillance and rapid case isolation to avoid the potential for resurgent epidemics. It is important to note that we do not quantify the wider societal and economic impact of such intensive suppression approaches; these are likely to be substantial. Nor do we quantify the potentially different societal and economic impact of mitigation strategies.

    Moreover, for countries lacking the infrastructure capable of implementing technology-led suppression maintenance strategies such as those currently being pursued in Asia6,9, and in the absence of a vaccine or other effective therapy (as well as the possibility of resurgence), careful thought will need to be given to pursuing such strategies in order to avoid a high risk of future health system failure once suppression measures are lifted.”

  78. UK says:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

    Calm down everyone…this modestly encapsulates everything I’ve been saying.

  79. Sean says:
    @PiltdownMan

    The best thing he could have done. As Trump said, real power is fear. We need scare tactics and perhaps even the prospect of immediate physical feedback for those who cannot be scared.

    Johnson looks knackered. According to an English consultant I saw quoted a few days ago, death from Covid-19 probably takes a month but that was likely based on his experience with patients who got it early on while special intensive care units and staff were available, and each Covid-19 case had individual specialist team attention. Being one of hundreds in a Zeppelin hanger size building with a non specialized nurse a hundred yards away who is exhausted and worried about catching it herself will result in much swifter demise. The whole of the disagreement (apart from Oxford’s belief that 0.001 need treatment) is the disparity in estimate for time from infection to death. The new Imperial estimate must be assuming overstretched hospitals and poorer patient outcomes. However, the the time it took the first British people to die is the crucial factor

    The study, led by Sunetra Gupta and José Lourenço at the University of Oxford’s Department of Zoology, puts forward several hypothetical scenarios about the spread of coronavirus in the UK. In the most extreme scenario they estimate thatt if the virus had started being transmitted 38 days before the first confirmed death then 68 per cent of the UK population would have been infected by March 19.

    The Oxford study gave a range of scenarios. The one that is causing all the fuss, the two key assumptions Oxford made are that the accrual of ‘compound interest’ continued for one (now two) weeks longer, and only one in a thousand people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will require hospitalisation. It is ostensibly an extreme hypothetical, but why would they include it? Half the UK population is over the threshold for getting troubled by symptoms if infected by SARS-CoV-2. The average age of those requiring treatment in the UK is alarmingly high, so one can infer the old folks have not been distancing in the last month. Much very serious illness is going to inevitably follow. I am sure there will be a future spike in deaths corresponding to the period when the Oxford foreign legion discredited Imperial warnings, and elderly people were less chary as a result.

    https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxford-study-immunity
    “It’s a little concerning that they’ve taken it straight to the media,” says Tim Colbourn, an epidemiologist at University College London’s Institute for Global Health. “It has not been properly sense-checked against any data.”

    Who was it that said in academia the rivalries are bitter because the stakes are so low? Gupta and Lourenço really should be shot for their irresponsible behavior.

    • Replies: @George
    , @Sean
  80. Smartphone location data shows the meaninglessness of the shutdown:

    Stunning Visualization Reveals Where Spring Break Covidiots Traveled After Flooding Florida Beaches

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/stunning-visualization-reveals-where-spring-break-covidiots-traveled-after-flooding-florida

    The shutdown has achieved nothing in terms of public health.

    • Replies: @Bill
  81. I wonder what the Covid 19 scenario in the US would have looked liked like had it broken out of Wuhan in December 1963.

  82. Seneca44 says:

    “High level ICU support includes support for multi organ failure. It really shouldn’t be used without a reasonable probability of success.”

    Data from conference call with Maryland Department of Health yesterday indicated that mortality rate of those who get sick enough to require mechanical ventilation is 85%

  83. Gotta say though, in the numbers of times I’ve been out and about, bringing home the bacon and the like, the people I’ve encountered—even out here in the Land of the Deplorables—have been extremely well behaved and respectful towards others and the common sense measures of distancing etc. Proving that when people’s enlightened self interest is appealed to, they will do the right thing. Proving also that our “elites” like Hilary and Obama are jerks for characterizing Americans as buffoonish swine.

    “ they cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” indeed.

  84. @Thud

    Some of the new information is that the death rate is lower than modeled.

  85. The Americans I’ve seen are behaving with calm fortitude. With the Stoicism that was discussed in an article up page.

  86. @LondonBob

    Let’s send the bill to Imperial College then.

  87. Should congressional legislation not compel health insurance companies to continue to provide full coverage for employees with work related health insurance who have been laid off, and their families, if they were on the policy, and possibly to cover any deductibles on those policies that are related to corona virus hospitalization.

    I see that one senator from Kentucky is trying to hold up approval of the current bill by demanding a full vote with senators physically present. It would be interesting to know how he thinks the bill could be improved.

    • Replies: @Jack D
  88. George says:
    @Sean

    “The average age of those requiring treatment in the UK is alarmingly high”

    Since the immigrant migrant population is said to be significantly younger than the indigenous population the shift to non native majorities will be accelerated, possibly in a year you will see non native true multicultural European countries.

    Various tricks are used to suppress the ability of immigrants/migrants ability to vote, but I wonder if those tricks can continue there is no longer a native majority.

    • Replies: @Sean
  89. Mr. Anon says:
    @anon

    The thing is, the disruption of the medical system is news. It’s concentrated and very visible. Until that abates, nothing else matters. This won’t go away.

    The question is – and we won’t know this until this is all over – is how much of the disruption of the medical system is due to the panic itself? The authorities stoke up a big panic about CoV. People flood into hospitals. Maybe a lot of them just have some kind of cold or flu, maybe even bad but not life-threatening, that they ordinarily would have just stayed home to nurse. But now, because they fear it might be CoV they race to the hospital and start filling up the wards. They can’t just be summarily turned away. They have to be triaged. They have to be dealt with. And while the staff are dealing with these people, they aren’t dealing with others. Some of those sick-but-non-CoV people then might end up contracting CoV while they are in the hospital. We might find out that some of this is due to poor infection control in hospitals.

  90. @Steve Sailer

    Recall that one thing that made the Spanish Flu so virulent was access to all those military hospitals with patients in large rooms who couldn’t get away from other infected sorts.

    I’m not so sure that a large room stuffed full of people whose immune systems cannot fight off this virus is a good idea. Might be the Petri dish that DOES create the Widowmaker.

  91. @AnotherDad

    I’ll admit any nation that has an openly traitorous bitch like Julie Ioffe

    I’ll admit I’m disappointed that Julia Ioffe has shown so little gratitude to the country that took her in from what really is a shithole country. Very bad form. But I still can’t work up that much ire, on account of her being so smokin’ hot.

  92. BenKenobi says:
    @AnotherDad

    The more I argued with them, the better I came to know their dialectic. First they counted on the stupidity of their adversary, and then, when there was no other way out, they themselves simply played stupid. If all this didn’t help, they pretended not to understand, or, if challenged, they changed the subject in a hurry, quoted platitudes which, if you accepted them, they immediately related to entirely different matters, and then, if again attacked, gave ground and pretended not to know exactly what you were talking about. Whenever you tried to attack one of these apostles, your hand closed on a jelly-like slime which divided up and poured through your fingers, but in the next moment collected again. But if you really struck one of these fellows so telling a blow that, observed by the audience, he couldn’t help but agree, and if you believed that this had taken you at least one step forward, your amazement was great the next day. The Blue-Check had not the slightest recollection of the day before, he rattled off his same old nonsense as though nothing at all had happened, and, if indignantly challenged, affected amazement; he couldn’t remember a thing, except that he had proved the correctness of his assertions the previous day.

  93. @AnotherDad

    typical Chinese blame shifting

    Chiggers.

    我什么也没做 – Dindu nuffin!

    • Replies: @Jack D
  94. @Anonymous

    Who’s the shithole country now?

    Wha? Like gangs are looting stores while everyone stays home from work?

  95. @Anonymous

    Since the fine people of NYC, well the OK Boomers of NYC, fled down to Florida to avoid the results of voting for de Blasio I would say NYC, Republic of; though San Francisco is a close second.

  96. Jack D says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    It’s not really the same thing. African-American culture and Chinese culture are just about polar opposites. “Dindu nuthin” is on the same level as the denials you get from your two year old when you catch him with chocolate smeared all over his face and your sofa cushions. Chinese denials are based upon the operation of face culture, which is a whole different thing.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
  97. @Ron Unz

    For example, deaths seem have jumped almost by a factor of 5-10x in various towns, but the cause isn’t classified as Coronavirus because nobody has bothered to test for the virus (the health authorities are busy with more pressing matters).

    Yeah, it makes perfect sense that there are more pressing matters than to test for coronavirus during a coronavirus epidemic. I mean, who the heck does that?

    • Replies: @gfhÄndel
  98. Deckin says:
    @Ron Unz

    OK. But,

    1. What % of these extra deaths does the Cassandra model attribute to COVID-19? I read the report and these mayors all note that many of the dead exhibited symptoms consistent with COVID-19. But in the US, where testing is triaged to only those who exhibit symptoms consistent with COVID-19, the rate of actual positives to total tested is running at .155.

    Would discounting those extra deaths in No. Italy according to our testing results still support the Cassandra model?

    2. We also have other Italian doctors saying there may be some over counting as well–that every death with a positive COVID-19 result is put into the caused by COVID-19 file.

    3 Of course, in the end, the pure number of bodies will be the determinative fact. Does anyone have total deaths for Italy so far this year?

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  99. @Anonymous

    I get that liberals like to be “cute” and play the reverse-role stuff, and quotes and all that…so let’s take it to it’s logical conclusion…if we’re gonna go by numbers/depth of the epidemic

    What’s the “shithole” City of the US (or world for that matter) now?

    Hint: Liberals love it’s skyline, “diversity”, broadway shows, and all that….

  100. Jack D says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    Current “COBRA” law already provides that employees have the right to stay on their employer’s policy for some time after termination. But they have to pay for it themselves.

    I don’t understand your proposal. Are the insurers supposed to provide free coverage? Does the employer have to keep paying and for how long? Should the government pay for it? God forbid, should people have to pay for their own insurance and deductibles?

    possibly to cover any deductibles on those policies that are related to corona virus hospitalization

    If an employee contracted Wuhan Virus while at work, it would be appropriate for the employer to pay the deductible but otherwise I don’t see why it should be different than any other disease for which you have to pay your own deductible.

    If people are laid off now and don’t have the cash, they can be put on some sort of deferred payment plan for their premiums and deductibles but we already have too much free stuff. Democrats love to spend other people’s money giving free stuff to their core constituencies to buy their votes.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    , @Anonymous
  101. @anon

    I find it very infuriating that the whole ostensible, stated, and confessed purpose of all this curve-flattening horseshit is to…spare the healthcare system the burden of doing its job.

    That’s like saying we can’t deploy the infantry because there’s a war on and they might get shot. Or, there’s no sense irrigating the fields now, we’ve got to conserve water during the drought. What is the freaking point of having a healthcare system if you aren’t going to use it when people actually need healthcare?

    This is clear evidence, right before our eyes in real time, of what a gigantic self-licking ice cream cone our welfare state has become. Not only are they not bothering to hide it, it hasn’t even dawned on them that what they’re doing is shameful. They don’t even see the irony. They’re getting up on the TV and making their claims in utter seriousness, with straight faces and innocent as babes in the woods: We need to protect the healthcare system!

    I don’t think many people are looking at the situation objectively like this yet, but eventually they will, especially the younger generation who are having their lives callously disrupted. We are all being made to suffer and destroy our own economic prospects because the precious healthcare system didn’t feel like engaging with a health emergency, so they made us do it for them.

    • Agree: Jonathan Mason
    • Replies: @anon
    , @Hail
  102. @Bill P

    No more visas until they shut down the wet markets and stop using untreated human waste as fertilizer.

    I’d love to see Trump cut student visas to Chinese by 99% (well 100% would be preferable, but have to be realistic). This would have the added benefit of putting huge financial pressure on the university system as most of the Chinese pay full tuition. The prospect of tens of thousands leftist diversicrats being fired is like a dream to me.

    • Agree: SimpleSong
    • Replies: @peterike
  103. Ron Unz says:
    @Deckin

    1. What % of these extra deaths does the Cassandra model attribute to COVID-19? I read the report and these mayors all note that many of the dead exhibited symptoms consistent with COVID-19. But in the US, where testing is triaged to only those who exhibit symptoms consistent with COVID-19, the rate of actual positives to total tested is running at .155.

    Well, those Italian mayors are just reporting that the death rate is 700% above normal in their town, and given that situation, once somebody is found dead, they’re often too busy to do an official virus test.

    Maybe it’s just pure coincidence that the deadly Coronavirus is sweeping Lombardy and death rates are also 700% higher than normal in lots of Lombardy towns…

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    , @BN
    , @Deckin
  104. Art Deco says:
    @Anonymous

    There is no indication he was in the ICU.

  105. @Jack D

    I don’t understand your proposal. Are the insurers supposed to provide free coverage?

    Yes, they can be reimbursed by the government later out of disaster funds, but they can still negotiate with the hospitals to get the best rates for the patient.

    COBRA is a joke, because I have never heard of anyone who could afford it. Most people, when they change jobs, have no health insurance for the first 90 days or 6 months of employment, and just have to go without it. hope for the best and rely on the extra savings from not paying premiums to pay for any medical care needed. Depending on where they live, they may also be able to cross a border or fly overseas to get affordable health care.

    But really, what good is health insurance where it could be necessary to be put on a payment plan to pay for the deductible? The whole point of paying hundreds of dollars each month for health insurance instead of having taxes for a national health care system is that the insurance company pays if you are sick, and if you are not sick, then they can keep the money and use it for someone else’s healthcare, and make a profit if there is money left over.

    Personally I do not think this is the most effective way to finance health care, but I guess a lot of people do think it is better for them and their families than what most of the rest of the world has. All I can say is that it is not cost effective for my family.

  106. @BB753

    Yeah, it appears that this will become an endemic disease–it will be here forever, flaring up at different times and places. All the countries that have stamped it out, are going to have new flare ups, particularly true the more globally interconnected they are. At least until a vaccine is available or there are good proven treatments, and that’s hard to predict when that will be. This is the sort of thing that can catalyze big systemic changes in a society.

    • Agree: BB753
  107. Anonymous[567] • Disclaimer says:
    @Coemgen

    Interesting facts about Chicago’s Robert Taylor and Cabrini Green high rise apartments and Park LaBrea development in Los Angeles and Park Merced formerly known as Stonestown in San Francisco

    All 4 developments have the exact same design both for the high rise building and interior 1,2, and 3 bedroom apartments.

    Park LaBrea and Stonestown never accepted black tenants. The rental agents insisted on meeting all roommates both spouses etc before even giving out the application forms. Those two complexes have always been very desirable with long waiting lists, 800 credit rating for tenants etc,

    What’s the difference? The color of the tenants.

    Park LaBea was saved from lawsuits because it’s heavily ultra liberal secular Jewish. Park Merced/Stonestown was saved because several federal state and local judges and politicians and or their adult children and grandkids lived there. Also Mercy SF high school is right across 19th Avenue. Can’t have the daughters of the wealthy old families and ultra liberal politicians molested and harassed by black thugs after school.

    Both Park LaBrea and Park Merced / Stonestown were built for lower middle class income affordability. Now of course, insulated from the black and brown hordes they’re very expensive.

    • Thanks: Coemgen
  108. res says:
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    Thanks for the article link. I have been hoping the 2009/Obama comparison would get more play. In particular, the differences in the reactions of the media. The major difference in the outbreaks appears to be that COVID-19 has a significantly higher fatality rate. Which matters, but depends on the degree to which those estimates are accurate.

    P.S. But I don’t think this comment is going to age well.

    Wuhan (China) flu is a nothing burger

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
  109. peterike says:
    @William Badwhite

    I’d love to see Trump cut student visas to Chinese by 99% (well 100% would be preferable, but have to be realistic). This would have the added benefit of putting huge financial pressure on the university system as most of the Chinese pay full tuition.

    I advocated this long before KungFlu. And as I noted at the time, supposedly Stephen Miller had convinced Trump to do just this until some ambassador dork talked Trump out of it. Meh. Simply for national security reasons it’s a no-brainer. The hurt it would put on universities is even better.

    And since most of these students are probably now back in China, easy enough to yank the visas and not let them come back.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite
  110. Anonymous[567] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D

    Your comment brings up an interesting Workmen’s Compensation issue, Jack. Regular health insurance absolutely does not cover work related injuries and illnesses. It’s right there in all the policies.

    So if a person gets the Chinese flu at work it’s covered by WCom.

    BUT and it’s a huge BUT, the WCom insurance refuse to pay for anything without a couple years of administrative hearings for every step of the medical process. Not only do the WCom insurance companies refuse MRIs and CAT scans until ordered to approve them after a year or 5 of administrative hearings and appeals, they don’t even approve X-rays without a year or 3 of administrative hearings.

    WCom insurance companies won’t even pay for ambulances and emergency room life saving treatments unless both the providers and injured worker patients hire attorneys to file and force the WCom insurance companies into administrative hearings where a judge orders them to approve and pay for the treatment. Often 5 years after the treatments been given.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
  111. gfhÄndel says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    There’s medical maxim “don’t order a test if the result is not going to change your management”.
    We do not have a specific treatment for COVID19.
    What’s more, the “treatments” are supportive in nature (i.e just buying time for the immune system to do its thing).
    So, serious question: what is the point of testing for COVID19?

  112. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @gfhÄndel

    Come on. Testing is not about individual treatment, but about mapping out the extent of exposure so we know what we actually have on our hands (so to speak).

    • Replies: @Dennis Dale
  113. @gfhÄndel

    So, serious question: what is the point of testing for COVID19?

    So as to be able to put the correct billing code on the forms for reimbursement from insurance companies, and probably to justify a longer stay in an expensive bed that what the insurance companies would pay for something like J11.08 Influenza due to unidentified influenza virus with specified pneumonia.

    • Replies: @Dennis Dale
    , @Coemgen
  114. @gfhÄndel

    My interlocutor here is somebody who is making a big deal out of the (rather incomplete) data, and he appears to be attributing all excess deaths of untested patients to Covid-19, which is scientifically sketchy to say the least. That’s the point.

  115. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @Dennis Dale

    I forgot to mention the more important aspect: once tested and identified as a carrier an individual can self-quarantine.

    More importantly maybe to the government, he can also be identified and quarantined by authorities. The Imperial College paper mentioned the importance of “surveillance”.

  116. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @Jonathan Mason

    Yes Jonathan that’s it. Totally. Why employ Occam’s Razor when you have Alex Jones’ Swiss Army knife at hand? Available and reasonably priced at the Infowars store.

  117. @Bill P

    Medieval hygiene standards have no place in a modern world connected by air travel. No more visas until they shut down the wet markets and stop using untreated human waste as fertilizer.

    Covid-19 is a cough that was heard around the world.

  118. @Ron Unz

    Well, those Italian mayors are just reporting that the death rate is 700% above normal in their town, and given that situation, once somebody is found dead, they’re often too busy to do an official virus test.

    Makes sense, but isn’t that always the case when there is an infectious disease around or some other event that causes a lot of deaths. For example, average life expectancy could depend on whether you live close to Mt. Vesuvius.

    Consider that during a hurricane lots of oak trees are blown down, some of them very ancient, much more than in the average month, and that most of the blown down oaks are elderly, but the monthly average of oak trees blown down for that year will include the hurricane month total, plus a small number from other months all divided by 12.

    Now if you calculate the average monthly number of oak trees blown down over a period of 5 years, a lot is going to depend on whether on how many hurricanes there were in that period of time, so the monthly number could be quite low if there was 5 years with no hurricane–until a hurricane came along, in which case the monthly average would be elevated.

    Long ago when I lived in Bermuda we got our weather forecasts from the US Naval Air Station. In 1986 their meteorological officer explained to us that since Bermuda had historically been hit by hurricanes approximately every 20 years, it was probably overdue for a direct hit, not having had one since Hurricane Arlene in 1963, and extra preparations were advised.

    Of course we laughed at his logical fallacy, but the next year, in 1987 Bermuda was devastated by Hurricane Emily, and the law of averages showed its teeth. You don’t mess with the met.

  119. @Anonymous

    It would be difficult to prove that you got it at work, unless you are a health care worker. If you are a health care worker and you catch it at work, you will be disciplined for failure to follow infection control policies and procedures.

  120. @peterike

    I’ve numbers as high as 300,000 Chinese students in the US at any given time (if anyone has more accurate numbers, please correct me). That is absurd. What country educates the next generation of what is showing itself to be, if not an enemy, certainly not an ally?

    US universities take them for the money. I’d like to see at least a subset of our “elites” not have everything be solely about the money. What a bunch of whores…

  121. BN says:
    @Ron Unz

    have you read about Italy’s “generous” methods in attributing deaths to certain causes? They could be wildly estimating deaths “caused by Covid” – could it be many of those that died were elderly and/or had cormobidities, and also Covid, but it was the other things that killed them? In other words, they would’ve died with or without Covid.

  122. @Kratoklastes

    5 people in one day but mostly the same 5 people day after day. Coworkers don’t change. People’s shopping habits don’t vary much.

    The incubation period has been calculated as 5.6 days elsewhere?

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  123. @Autochthon

    Until the doctors from St Mary’s teaching hospital were attached, Imperial College was an engineering school with a few hard sciences and language teaching attached. Such people don’t get excited about rebranding.

    The engineering school has always been disproportionatley popular with students from Commonwealth countries.

    • Replies: @Autochthon
  124. Deckin says:
    @Ron Unz

    I’ve looked but I can’t find any death figures, either historical or current, sorted by commune in Italy.

    From Corriera Della Serra

    (https://www.corriere.it/salute/20_febbraio_25/coronavirus-mappa-contagio-italia-6ed25c54-57e3-11ea-a2d7-f1bec9902bd3.shtml)

    they give total cases by city (commune) but not deaths. The death total (decessi) is only given for the region. The oddity is that the total cases for Milano is roughly about what you have for the cities of Bergamo and Brescia, which are about 1/5 the size.

    But if the total deaths in Milano are running 4-9x what the government stats are giving out, then

    a. there’s no evidence from reading the newspapers–I couldn’t find anything about this kind of death in Milano.
    b. given the size of the city, that kind of death would be hugely evident–it’s a city, with environs, of around 2 million.
    c. the NYC experience would indicate that given the density, things should be worse there than they are in Cremona, Bergamo and Brescia–which really are small cities (and exceedingly beautiful)

    Why isn’t this a very big dog that we need to hear from?

  125. Sean says:
    @George

    I don’t think there will be enough deaths for that, but London is where the establishment all are, and they all seem to be getting it. The first symptom of COVID-19 is loss of a sense of smell, which indicates it affects neurons and maybe the higher mental functions.the people affected are like going to be knocked off kilter. In any event, the likelihood that Rishi Sunak becomes the next Prime Minister have just shortened dramatically. Similar processes will be happening in every institution.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  126. @Jack D

    Chinese denials are based upon the operation of face culture, which is a whole different thing.

    Chinese denials are based on the Chinese perception – in stark contradiction to its millenia long record of originating diseases of every kind – of itself as somehow so above the rest that it could not possibly be the headwaters for this particular bug. This is an adjunct to the theory that Chinese weakness throughout much of the 19th and 20th centuries was the result of Western rapacity rather than Chinese leadership incompetence.

  127. Coemgen says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    Hospitals may want the COVID-19 billing codes as evidence to prove their future bankruptcy was not due to mismanagement but due to the pandemic.

    Hospital beds filled with people struggling to breath earn a lot less for hospitals than do hospital beds used for surgical patients.

  128. Sean says:
    @Sean

    I was a bit hasty here. That the virus had started being transmitted 38 days before the first confirmed death would seems quite likely, if it takes a month to die of it.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  129. @Sean

    I do wonder whether Ferguson was all there when he released his 510k dead forecast. He must have already been infected.

  130. anon[156] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    I’m just reporting what I’m seeing. With the caveat that either the headroom of our medical system is really low or there is something odd about the number of severe cases vs regular flu. People are looking at case numbers and fatalities, but in between infection and death, there is something unexpected going on at, for example, the 85th percentile of severities.

    The Chinese didn’t get worked up over 2-3,000 bodies. Something else triggered their response.

    Meanwhile, usually, you want your medical guys thinking inside the box, following rules, protocols, procedures, etc. They could do this but they will be operating way outside the comfort zone, so it will take a while. Plus they will need resources. They will need to use tele medicine, drive through testing, anti virals, etc. (For Example). If I can envision something more streamlined, someone else can do a lot better.

    It’s not just the emergency health care system surge, but the reasonable functioning of the routine health system. Since we spend 18% go GDP on it, it’s intolerable for politicians to see it operating chaotically.

    Even though I can’t really explain it, I am identifying this as the thing that started it off in China and necessary condition for reducing panic in the US.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  131. @anon

    Even though I can’t really explain it, I am identifying this as the thing that started it off in China and necessary condition for reducing panic in the US.

    That’s a very good observation and I did not mean to sound as if I was laying into you. I was just sort of piggybacking on what you wrote in order to express my own displeasure.

  132. @Jonathan Mason

    Not all ICU beds are created equal. I wonder what typical ICUs in Germany are like?

  133. @Philip Owen

    5 people in one day but mostly the same 5 people day after day

    Agreed, broadly – it’s something I discussed in the original comment of March 24:

    That total infected number’s unrealistically high because of the nature of the model: it is missing a shitload of obvious constraints.

    For example: people might have 5-10 contacts a day, but it’s not with new people. (On the flip [s]ide, it’s not like each uninfected can only get it from a specific infected individual – but there will be innate spatial constraints on movements, too)

    Thing is though, although family and work colleagues are a small, mostly-constant set… the other people in the train/bus/supermarket/café aren’t.

    Those fuckers are constantly touching things, picking their noses, coughing, breathing (it’s the exhaling that I object to) and other insalubrious things.

    For our chums in the food service and hospitality industry, they’re exposed to everyone’s filthy, filthy money (or their credit cards, which are just as filthy).

    A Client Operations Engineer (I’m guessing that’s what they call people who do the till nowadays) will have fifty or sixty such ‘contacts’: they may as well spend all day licking a rancid hangman’s arsehole[1].

    When they give us our change, they’re handing us a potluck of every greeblie known to man.

    On balance, it’s a wonder any of us survive any contagion.

    Also…

    The incubation period has been calculated as 5.6 days elsewhere?

    Yep – ICL used 4.6(ish), I used 5, and others have even higher numbers. There’s actually some pretty good evidence that the incubation period covers a pretty wide range (from as little as 2 days, all the way up to 2 weeks): it’s hard to know, because a very large number of people will contract covid19 from an asymtomatic carrier.

    The incubation period (call it ‘X’ here) affects the lag structure by which infected turn into infectious.

    Normally, the stock of infectious people today is
    • yesterday’s infectious
    MINUS those who exit the infectious period
    • the people who cease being infectious (that’s the people who became infectious ‘N’ days ago – where N is the length of the infectiousness period);
    MINUS
    • the dead and recovered (those who were infected ‘M’ days ago, where M is the length of the time between infection and death or recovery)
    PLUS the newly infectious
    • the people who were exposed/infected ‘X’ days ago, where X is the incubation period.

    If X, N, or M are not integers, then the relevant ‘compartments’ will be some weighted average rather than a discrete value.

    So if X = 4.6, the “newly infectious” at time T is the geometric average of the newly-infected at [T-4] and [T-5], with a weighting parameter set so that the newly-infectious is a decent guess at what [“T-4.6”] looks like in a discrete-time model. (I’m paraphrasing a bit, because operationally there’s a bit more to it, to ensure that the system counts everybody).

    I’ll try to have the full model set up on a webserver by Monday so that people can have a play with it.

    [1] from Catullus, Carmen 97 (On Foul Amelius): “putemus aegroti culum lingere carnificis

  134. @Sean

    You’re over-thinking it.

    In a bog-standard SEIR model parameterised approximately how ICL did theirs, the first death happens well after day 21: in my version it happens at day 29.

    The reason for this, is that deaths (and recoveries) have to be whole people.

    Death/recovery is set up to happen at 21 days post-infection by assumption, but the dead/recovered split is set at 3.5%/96.5% (as an example).

    Prior to day 29, INT(0.035×I[T-21]) evaluates to zero.

    INT() – or FLOOR() – is used instead of ROUND(), because it’s semantically incorrect to round “0.6 of a dead’un” up to a full corpse: if the ‘death’ function results in a ‘partial death’, that whole person is not dead.

    The first “whole death” happens when the number of infected from 3 weeks ago is sufficient for μ% of that number to be greater than 1, where μ is the death rate.

    If the infectious period is shorter, each individual infected gets to infect fewer people – so the cumulative number of infected will be lower at all points in time.

    It’s pretty easy to add a week until the first ‘integer death’.

    • Replies: @Sean
  135. Bill says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    Shutdowns don’t work. We know this because there was a lot of disease spreading before the shutdown. Shutdowns aren’t necessary. We know this because things weren’t so bad once we had an effective shutdown.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  136. @Philip Owen

    No kidding. Some sixty per cent of the university’s students are foreigners. Actual Britons’ tax-dollars at work for these undocumented Britons, you see….

  137. LondonBob says:

    Bergstrom is living proof you can’t be a political activist and a scientist.

  138. Sean says:
    @Kratoklastes

    The data from China is the first known infection there occurred on the 17th of November, with five infections per day after that. Five times eight is forty (thank you Google). Thirty eight days seems about right.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other

    Sunetra Gupta is an acclaimed novelist, essayist and scientist. In October 2012 her fifth novel, So Good in Black, was longlisted for the DSC Prize for South Asian Literature. In 2009 she was named as the winner of the Royal Society Rosalind Franklin Award for her scientific achievements. Sunetra, who lives in Oxford with her husband and two daughters, is Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at Oxford University’s Department of Zoology, having graduated in 1987 from Princeton University and received her PhD from the University of London in 1992. Sunetra was born in Calcutta in 1965 and wrote her first works of fiction in Bengali. She is an accomplished translator of the poetry of Rabindranath Tagore.

    Gupta has wide ranging interests, the very opposite of a nerdy character who gets overawed by wordsmiths. No one who got accepted at Imperial and Oxford would choose Imperial. Oxford is the better place and I think their prestige makes them more able to disregard subtle political pressure. Imperial doubtless know their stuff, but they are all over the place: too responsive to government. It pains me to say it, but she is probably right.

    • Replies: @Sean
    , @Kratoklastes
  139. Sean says:
    @Sean

    Both scenarios are equally plausible, says Sunetra Gupta, the theoretical epidemiologist who led the Oxford work. “I do think it is missing from the thinking that there is an equally big possibility that a lot of us are immune,”

  140. LondonBob says:

    Ferguson and his team have been lambasted for their modelling before, foot and mouth as well as BSE they got the sums badly wrong.

  141. Hail says: • Website
    @prime noticer

    in the past, this would come and go like other previous pathogens and you might not even hear about it, or you’d see a 1 minute segment on the evening news one time, and that would be it.

    now if the news reported on literally EVERY murder, or EVERY car crash fatality, all day, EVERY day, for weeks on end, many people would start to be scared to go outside at night, or even get in their car and drive somewhere, like how people were afraid to get in the ocean after Jaws came out. fresh in their mind, all the time. if you want to see women genuinely scared, start reporting continuously about the rapes in their city. make sure to keep reminding them about the other women getting raped. there’s a rapist in town and he could be around the next corner.

    the media loves FEAR. fear sells. those nonsense predictions from ‘experts’ about 2 million people dying from a virus SELLS.

    Excellent comment.

    I posted much the same in a long post in another Steve Sailer thread. I was motivated to write so much there because this fiasco deserves to be documented, and forever remembered in shame. The causality chain deserves to be identified.

    There are a lot of factors behind this 99%-artificial “crisis,” a long-running train-wreck of overreactions one after another and destructive mass-hysteria. But my four-word appraisal is and remains, The Media is Guilty. Never have I been more convinced that the media really is The Enemy of the People.

    For those who don’t like oversimplifications, or who dislike what might seem to be blame-games (scapegoating the media), an apolitical lesson may be that this is a case of our high technology being weaponized against us. Ted Kaczynski must be laughing in his (wherever he is).

  142. Hail says: • Website
    @SimpleSong

    it’s also going to carry away a lot of people in their 40s and 50s

    Except that in the biggest datasets we have, it carried away no one from those age groups who wasn’t already in serious health danger, with such a highly weakened immune system that they would be at risk from any opportunistic infection to begin with. Maybe someone can point to a fluke death of someone very healthy under 60, here or there; but statistically, it’s zero.

    In short, we need the data.

    True. The problem is, leaders have generally not made data-based decisions here. They began making reckless, knee-jerk reactions. A criminally irresponsible media acting out something like a drawn-out cocaine binge, all but deliberately fanning the flames of panic, put pressure on everyone else to likewise fold to the alarmists.

    • Agree: Kratoklastes
    • Replies: @Jack D
  143. Hail says: • Website
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Good, novel observation, against the consensus view, worth hearing. Comments like these are what makes Intelligent Dasein such an asset to the Sailer commentariat.

    I’d add, more as a reply to anon, that health care systems in high-average-age areas DO occasionally reach capacity during peaks flu periods; it happened in Milan just two years ago, again during a high flu period. They dealt with it. Life goes on.

  144. Jack D says:
    @Hail

    First of all, it does kill previously healthy young people now and then. Often these are medical professionals who got a big dose of the virus, like the Wuhan doctor who spoke out early in the epidemic and was punished for by the local authorities. Also people who are prone to cytokine storms.

    2ndly, not everyone who is in his 40s and 50s is in perfect health, especially in our society. Lots of folks with diabetes, overweight, smokers, etc. But absent a killer like this they might live for many years more.

    Still, mortality for those below 50 is extremely low if not zero. From 50 to 60 it starts to inch up and then gets progressively worse until in the 80+ group it reaches maybe 15%.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  145. @Sean

    A key possible conclusion of the Oxford paper – that if the SEIR model is correct, a very large number of people will already have been infected – was one of the points I made in the March 24th comment.

    And the earlier the first infected person arrives, the larger the proportion of the population was infected the day they started to impose social countermeasures.

    What has appalled me (in terms of the competence of the modellers) is that for each country they tend to locate the start of the SEIR model at the date of the first detected ‘case’ – which is so retarded I can’t even.

    The first detected case is always someone whose infection is severe enough to require a hospital visit; that means they contracted it several days earlier (between 2 and 10 days: the range of estimates of the incubation period is that wide), and upstream contact-tracing usually stops at someone symptomatic – which is itself a problem if asymptomatic transmission is possible (and it is).

    If some large-but-unknown proportion of true-positives are asymptomatic (something between 30 and 40%: I’ve seen estimates as high as 60%), then there is a reasonable probability that ‘Patient Zero’ (the first infected person who arrives in a particular country) will have been asymptomatic, which is why they weren’t detected at the border.

    Earlier in March, Mizumoto et al (2020) had a decent crack at modelling asymptomatic-positives using the data from the Diamond Princess.

    The Diamond Princess data shows that 50.5% of positive tests were asymptomatic. However all estimates are random quantities, so the aim is to think abut what type of distribution may have generated the observation, and get some idea of what the expected outcome is from a distribution thought to generate the observation.

    Mizumoto et al did a sensitivity analysis to come up with some bounds around their estimates – although they only really varied the incubation period, and they use a Weibull distribution set up to have a long mean incubation period (6.3 days). They varied the incubation period between 5.5 and 9.5 days.

    This gives them a very wide range – their key finding was that true asymptomatic positives are only 28-40% of reported asymptomatic cases, and the true asymptomatic proportion is between 20 and 40% (although their chosen setup gives a mean estimate of just 17.9%).

    Without calumniating them too much, their paper makes far too much of a song and dance about how asymptomatic-infected were unlikely vectors for infection – which makes one wonder if they were targeting a finding of a high level of false-positives in the detection of asymptomatic infected (this would imply that most asymptomatic infected weren’t actually infected, so we needn’t worry about there being a gigantic pool of them wandering about touching shit and breathing on people).

    It’s also weird that 2 days before their paper was published, Macintyre (2020) made it clear that
    • asymptomatic transmission had already been detected(Bai et al 2020), and
    • asymptomatic-positives had the same viral load as symptomatic (Zou et al 2020) in the parts of the anatomy from which transmission is likely (the upper respiratory tract), and that infectiousness is highest when symptoms are few.

    Also, Mizumoto et al take for granted the test results – that the ‘positive‘ bit of ‘asymptomatic-positive’ is a known known.

    This is a bad assumption, given the known problems with the test.

    It also brings up the possibility that a bunch of the people who tested negative were false negatives, and that some (most) of those were asymptomatic.

    Once you add some variability to account for the reliability of the test (being suspicious about false positives and false negatives), the envelope for asymptomatic-infectious tilts higher, because negative tests are a huge majority – so if 50% of the negative results are wrong it increases the number of asymptomatic carriers by much much more than it is reduced by accounting for 50% false positives.

    As a quant, I have to admit I love/hate this stuff: I love the ease with which a model can be understood, and that once the model is written down nobody can change the assumptions mid-analysis.

    The ‘hate’ part comes from the problem that once you know the model, you know how to tweak the right knob to get whatever answer you want. Anyone whose livelihood depends on .gov funding has incentives to do their tweaks in such a way as to produce results that align with the narrative being pushed by the overlords.

    The Macintyre paper is a really good source, because it shows that pretty much every vector of transmission has been observed – including long-range aerosol, and surface transmission risks that persist for over a day).

    That means that the number of people that can be casually infected is probably larger than most models assume, which means a commensurately-larger proportion of the population was already infected by the time .gov told us all to stay indoors.

    Regardless… at this stage of the game there are far too few deaths for the ‘C’ being used in CFR to be correct.

    References

    Mizumoto Kenji, Kagaya Katsushi, A Zarebski and G Chowell (2020)
    Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020 Euro Surveillance 2020;25(10)

    Macintyre CR (2020) On a knife’s edge of a COVID-19 pandemic: is containment still possible? Public Health Res Pract. 2020;30(1)

    Zuo 2020 (2020) SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients, New England Journal of Medicine 2020 Mar 19;382(12):1177-1179.

    Bai et al (2020) Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19 JAMA. 2020 Feb 21. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.2565.

    • Replies: @Sean
  146. @Bill

    Dammit, put an /s or /sarc somewhere – some of us are tin-eared about that sort of thing.

    Shutdowns ‘work’ (i.e., they reduce the rate of growth of ‘confirmed cases’) because once they happen there is a massive reduction in people who show up to get tested.

    Fewer people getting tested means fewer ‘new’ cases, because asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases ‘shelter in place’ – and nobody tests them; the vast majority of these recover and are never counted.

    However during a shutdown, the number of severe ‘new’ cases continues to grow, because severe cases still go to hospitals, and are tested. Deaths (all of which are ‘new’, for obvious reasons) continue to grow, too.

    Eventually, when governments decide that they’ve over-reacted and walk it all back, they will simply stop testing. People who are going to die will still die, and their cause of death will still be heart attack, kidney failure, pneumonia etc… and will be recorded as such.

    MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.

    .

    A recent shitpost (almost certainly fictional) about Burundi makes the point really well.

    As of March 26, Burundi had ZERO confirmed cases.

    According to the shitpost, when asked what steps they had taken to be so successful in preventing the spread, the relevant person explained:

    We don’t have any test kits yet.

    It’s almost certainly not true (that they have no kits), but it would explain an absence of ‘confirmed’ cases.

  147. @Jack D

    First of all, it does kill previously healthy young people now and then.

    So do ladders and mattresses.

    300 deaths a year result from falls from ladders; over 700 industrial deaths from ‘elevated falls’ i.e., falls from a height, involving a ladder or not. I bet Big Ladder tries to get all mention of ladders removed from those.

    Difference is, CNN doesn’t dedicate their entire schedule to the ongoing holocaust of ladder-related deaths, and there’s not a daily briefing by #OrangeManBad and Anthony ‘AIDS is totally not gay‘ Fauci (or his ladder-related equivalent – a presidential advisor on ladder-related mortality from the National Institutes of Ladder Research).

    It seems clear that the Fed should focus its liquidity generation, to the economy-wide repurchase of ladders – preferably using a ‘mark to model’. My model shows that I have 800 ladders (some of them ‘derivative’ – i.e., non-physical). I clearly remember they cost me $1b each, although I can’t find the receipt.

    .

    There’s also ~700 deaths a year from falling out of bed.

    A bunch of those will be old folks, but we should shut down the entire economy (or at least, make people sleep standing up) just in case a telegenic mother of 3 dies from a bed-related mishap.

    HAIL KEK

  148. Sean says:
    @Kratoklastes

    Without calumniating them too much, their paper makes far too much of a song and dance about how asymptomatic-infected were unlikely vectors for infection

    Calumny is to accuse someone of a thing you know they are innocent of. These are world authorities you are talking about, the lack of respect and subordination to qualified people is a major problem, one that does not exist in Germany and Austria. There, if you have two Phds you are addressed as Doctor Doctor

    According to the MIT study you could and prolly do have several metres range transmission of COVID-19 with a cough, especially in hot and humid conditions. But while a cough sends out literally billions of viral particles like a flamethrower,

    A cough is a definitely a symptom. Prior to the fellow showing up at the hospital, a very narrow line of transmission being in operation seem the most reasonable default assumption.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/03/why-are-germany-s-and-austria-s-coronavirus-death-rates-so-low
    [O] f 53,340 Germans infected only 395 have died; of 7,712 infected Austrians only 58 have succumbed to the virus. […] An Austrian ski-resort, Ischgl in the Tirol, was one of the hotspots from which coronavirus spread to other parts of Europe. In … Austria the largest group affected is those aged 45-54;The biggest unknown is the possibility of cultural explanations – though here the line between stereotype and reality is difficult to tread. Germans and Austrians, it is true, do tend to respect experts. Even in this anti-authority age a certain reverence still surrounds those with doctorates, and academic titles are commonly used as forms of address. Drosten – Prof. Dr. Drosten to be Germanic about it – has become a national star and semi-ironic heartthrob, with Die Zeit even suggesting tongue-in-cheek that he is Germany’s real chancellor. (For their part the chancellors de jure, Merkel and Kurz, have been relatively clear, calm and authoritative in their communications with the public.)

    Cultural explanations must include an explanation of why this fellow’s disease metaphors mobilising the population to do what no one dreamt possible. And that in a culture where the population deferred to experts. So while you can challenge received wisdom. I don’t think it helpful to say renowned experts are incompetent. They are more likely to think the public is not ready to hear the truth. If you come out with a truth that all know but none dare say then you can get somewhere. But forming your own theories from scratch as an outsider won’t work.

    • Agree: Johnny Rico
  149. @res

    P.S. But I don’t think this comment is going to age well.

    Wuhan (China) flu is a nothing burger

    At this moment, anyway, on March 30th, officially America has 2,573 deaths. Here is an article from the New York times (after the more) from 2010 during the Swine Flu. It gives an update of deaths from Swine Flu and that number is 12,000. This is 4.6 times more than we what we have currently. Of special note is that that this report is on page 13. The New York Times itself thought 4x current Covid deaths is only worthy of mentioning on page 13, a nothing burger to them, apparently.

    Then there is the vanilla flu strains we get every year that aren’t even important enough to us to be offically named. Literally ‘nothing’ burgers. Example:

    Burden Estimates for the 2014-2015 Influenza Season
    30 million influenza illnesses, 14 million influenza-associated medical visits, 591,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 51,000 flu-associated deaths

    Covid deaths are rising and may very well be worse than a run-of-the-mill flu, but it has a lot of work to do yet.

    [MORE]

    [nytimes.com]
    New Numbers for Swine Flu
    …March 12, 2010

    About 12,000 Americans died from swine flu between its emergence last April until mid-February, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated on Friday.

    Seasonal flu activity has been unusually low this winter, suggesting that the H1N1 swine flu strain “crowded out” the usual seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains.

    A version of this article appears in print on March 13, 2010, Section A, Page 13 of the New York edition with the headline: New Numbers For Swine Flu.

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