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New Estimate of Population Fatality Rate in Bergamo Province: 0.57%
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A preprint from some non-medical scientists at Berkeley:

Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis
Chirag Modi, Vanessa Bohm, Simone Ferraro, George Stein, and Uros Seljak

We perform a counterfactual time series analysis using two different Data Science methods applied to 2020 mortality data reported from towns in Italy, with data from the previous five years as control. We find an excess mortality that is correlated in time with the COVID-19 reported death rate time series. Our analysis shows good agreement with reported COVID-19 mortality for age<70 years, but an excess in total mortality increasing with age above 70 years, suggesting there is a large population of predominantly old people missing from the official fatality statistics. We estimate that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy is 52,000 ± 2000 as of April 18 2020, more than a factor of 2 higher than the official number. The Population Fatality Rate (PFR) has reached 0.22% in the most affected region of Lombardia and 0.57% in the most affected province of Bergamo, which constitutes a lower bound to the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).

Let’s review our acronyms: Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is what percentage of officially counted diagnosed cases (which are less than all infections) die.

Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is what percentage of all infections, diagnosed or not, die.

The Population Fatality Rate (PFR) is what percentage of all people, infected or not, die.

Of course, counting fatalities is not simple either. There are typically official counts of people who died in hospitals who were counted as being infected by the new virus. (That of course leads to arguments about dying from the virus versus dying with the virus.)

But, typically, there are many deaths outside hospitals, which often have gone uncounted initially.

In many places in northern Italy, excess deaths in 2020 versus the average for that time period in previous years was much higher than official CV deaths.

But that doesn’t mean they necessarily died directly of CV, whether from or with CV. They might have never been infected and died of something else altogether because either medical care was stressed or because they feared putting themselves in the hands of the medical care system during a period of rapid transmission of the new disease in medical settings.

We estimate PFR as a function of age, finding a steep age dependence: in Lombardia (Bergamo province) 0.6% (1.7%) of the total population in age group 70-79 died, 1.6% (4.6%) in age group 80-89, and 3.41% (10.2%) in the age group above 90.

So the good news about the bad news about all the uncounted deaths in Bergamo province was that they appear to have been concentrated among the quite old, even more so than the official counted deaths.

We combine this with the Test Positivity Rate to estimate the lower bound of 0.84% on the IFR for Lombardia.

We observe IFR to trace the Yearly Mortality Rate (YMR) above 60 years, which can be used to estimate the IFR for other regions in the world. We predict an IFR lower bound of 0.5% for NYC and 26% of total COVID-19 mortality arising from the population below 65 years, in agreement with the existing data and several times higher than Lombardia. Combining PFR with the Princess Diamond cruise ship IFR for ages above 70 we estimate the infection rates (IR) of regions in Italy, which peak in Lombardia at 23% (12%-41%, 95% c.l.), and for provinces in Bergamo at 67% (33%- 100%, 95% c.l.). This suggests that Bergamo may have reached herd immunity, and that the number of infected people greatly exceeds the number of positive tests, by a factor of 35 in Lombardia.

So, who knows about this methodology that these physicists and data scientists used? But these numbers don’t sound too implausible.

Here’s one thing I wanted to mention. I’ve read a lot of speculation about, “Well, of course old Italians are dying like flies. Everybody knows Italians are lazy, fat from eating all that pasta, and the industrial cities like Turin have terrible air pollution. (In contrast, I am, physically and morally, in perfect shape, so because, unlike Italians, I deserve to live forever, I can never die.)”

But … the more I read about the hardest-hit places in Italy, the more they sound like paradises for outdoorsmen.

For example, here’s a picture of the Upper Town of the city of Bergamo with the 10,000 foot tall Bergamasque Alps in the background.

Bergamo is so hilly that a 52 degree funicular was installed in 1887 to connect the Lower City to the Upper City.

Perhaps the hardest hit of all small cities was Nembro northeast of Bergamo, with an unofficial death toll over 1%.

Is Nembro a miasmic lowland slum? Nah, it’s at the base of the Alps. Here’s the switchback road connecting Nembro to the mountain village of Selvino.

Okay, so … perhaps instead the reason the death rate in Bergamo Province was so much higher among the old than among the young was not because the old were so unhealthy, but because the young are so healthy relative to, say, average Americans?

The good news is that doctors are learning far more about this novel disease every week, so they ought to be able to bring the Infection Fatality Rate down over time.

 
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  1. Is altitude a factor? Less oxygen. There’s your skiing correlation.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Bergamo is at 1650 feet elevation, Nembro around 1100 feet, Selvino at 3150 feet.
  2. It’s really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It’s called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don’t trust anything like this. It’s fudge factors all the way down.

    Now, I’ll get all anecdotal on your asses now to just demonstrate how much trouble this panic has been causing. Some homeless guy with his (pretty-nice, blue) scooter was sitting next to a church in our neighborhood. Me and my 8 y/o boy (me on roller-blades on the road and he on a bike on the sidewalks) passed him one way, then 30 minutes later were on the other side of the street coming toward him. My son would have passed 5 or 6 ft from where he was hanging out.

    The guy started yelling loud as he could at me about us being too close, and “you can’t take a kid around, you’re tryin’ to kill me, get away!” or some such stuff. I wasn’t gonna take that and got on the sidewalk rolling toward him and telling him to shut the hell up. (We’d have been glad to go way around, but I’m not gonna take abuse like that.) He threatened to kick my ass, and I’m not at all a big guy, but I kept on coming.

    The guy got on his scooter, as I was I telling him to f-off and such. Then he turned around 75 yards away and came at me in a game of chicken, he on the scooter and me on rollerblades, passed with 1 foot of me (apparently forgetful of the R0 data), as I tried to grab a sleeve to dump his crazy ass onto the road.

    Then, I started rollerblading down the road after him in this neighborhood, let’s call it “Crestview” or something, just for fun, and, see now here’s the part you’d have liked, Steve, if I had been just a little bit quicker. I yelled “get out of Crestview” but without the “…Lebowski!” Opportunities like that don’t come often.

    Yes, he was mentally ill, but all this hysteria had not helped that man one bit. Me neither.

    • Agree: vhrm
    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    • BASED: BenKenobi
    , @Ron Mexico
    Appreciate that story, but don't fuck with mentally ill homeless dudes. I had an uncle who was a schizo and spent a lot of his adult life homeless. He passed away living under a CA highway overpass. Anyways, I pissed him off one day and I literally had to run for my life. He would amuse us as shithead kids with his stories about being tortured by Satan and Ozzy Osbourne. As an adult I realized we were dumbasses for egging him on, he could have killed us without any thought to it. Be safe, avoid the homeless like the plague, or Covid 19.
    , @Federalist
    If I ever see a guy rollerblading, I'll know it's you and I'll say hello.
    , @Hypnotoad666
    In a sea of murky data, the one thing that is crystal clear is that the virus is only a real threat to sickly people over 60 years old. For healthy, working age people under 60 it is barely worse than the flu. Yet, the Lock-Down Nazis insist that the only responsible policy is to prohibit these barely-at-risk under-60 workers from leaving their homes to make a living.

    Meanwhile, NO MEASURES ARE BEING TAKEN TO PROTECT THE ACTUALLY AT-RISK OLD PEOPLE!!

    Unbelievably, in New York they are actually REQUIRING nursing homes to take in infected patients. https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-nursing-homes-1.43491608 . They might as well be selling them infected blankets. It's no wonder New York's death toll is the big outlier in the U.S.

    Here's a thought experiment: What would happen if a new virus emerged that only attacked babies? Would we shut down the whole economy in the hope that that would slow the rate at which babies got infected. Of course not. We would directly protect the babies themselves and their caregivers from the virus.
    , @Faraday's Bobcat

    It’s really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It’s called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don’t trust anything like this. It’s fudge factors all the way down.
     
    That's not at all what the calculus of variations is. You must be thinking of multiple regression or something.
  3. Do people really regard Italians as unhealthy? My initial thought was that the Italians kiss and hug acquaintances far more than the average culture and that was responsible. Not that they were slovenly or ate crap.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Italians kiss their grandparents a lot more than, say, Swedes do.

    Social kissing sounds like it can be particularly infectious because multiple people can kiss the same person's cheek.

    , @stillCARealist
    They all smoke.

    I don't care what the official numbers say, they all smoke. The streets of Rome are a giant ashtray.
    , @slumber_j
    Yeah, I was surprised by that too. I've spent probably a year of my life in Italy, and you don't see much obesity there at all--and they of course famously eat better than almost anyone on earth. Is the astonishing vanity of the typical Italian man going to allow him even to flirt with being fat? Not in my experience.
  4. @Boko Fittleworth
    Is altitude a factor? Less oxygen. There's your skiing correlation.

    Bergamo is at 1650 feet elevation, Nembro around 1100 feet, Selvino at 3150 feet.

    • Replies: @Boko Fittleworth
    Oldsters who live at the base of the Alps have probably spent much more time higher up the Alps (skiing, hiking, working at the lodge) than people who don't live at the base of the Alps.
    , @Pat Boyle
    That's not very high. I live in the city of Oakland California. That is to say I'm within the city limits not the suburbs. I am wring this comment in my den on my house's ground floor. That floor is exactly at 1,000 feet elevation.

    I am not quite at the summit. The suburbs are higher. Mount Diablo is about 4,000 feet. Kit Carson called Mount Diablo "The Little Mountain".

    Oakland of course is at sea level.
  5. @Aeronerauk
    Do people really regard Italians as unhealthy? My initial thought was that the Italians kiss and hug acquaintances far more than the average culture and that was responsible. Not that they were slovenly or ate crap.

    Italians kiss their grandparents a lot more than, say, Swedes do.

    Social kissing sounds like it can be particularly infectious because multiple people can kiss the same person’s cheek.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEZM92GtPno
  6. @Achmed E. Newman
    It's really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It's called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don't trust anything like this. It's fudge factors all the way down.

    Now, I'll get all anecdotal on your asses now to just demonstrate how much trouble this panic has been causing. Some homeless guy with his (pretty-nice, blue) scooter was sitting next to a church in our neighborhood. Me and my 8 y/o boy (me on roller-blades on the road and he on a bike on the sidewalks) passed him one way, then 30 minutes later were on the other side of the street coming toward him. My son would have passed 5 or 6 ft from where he was hanging out.

    The guy started yelling loud as he could at me about us being too close, and "you can't take a kid around, you're tryin' to kill me, get away!" or some such stuff. I wasn't gonna take that and got on the sidewalk rolling toward him and telling him to shut the hell up. (We'd have been glad to go way around, but I'm not gonna take abuse like that.) He threatened to kick my ass, and I'm not at all a big guy, but I kept on coming.

    The guy got on his scooter, as I was I telling him to f-off and such. Then he turned around 75 yards away and came at me in a game of chicken, he on the scooter and me on rollerblades, passed with 1 foot of me (apparently forgetful of the R0 data), as I tried to grab a sleeve to dump his crazy ass onto the road.

    Then, I started rollerblading down the road after him in this neighborhood, let's call it "Crestview" or something, just for fun, and, see now here's the part you'd have liked, Steve, if I had been just a little bit quicker. I yelled "get out of Crestview" but without the "...Lebowski!" Opportunities like that don't come often.

    Yes, he was mentally ill, but all this hysteria had not helped that man one bit. Me neither.

    • BASED: BenKenobi

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
  7. Nembro has two nursing homes, one private, and a senior center. It has 11,000 people. My home town in Northern Italy has 9500 people, one nursing home, administered by the city hall, no senior center. Nembro has poor air quality as the prevailing winds have particular trouble clearing the Prealpi (Alpi’s low ranges). If you look at those pollution maps, Nembro is under the darkest spot.Why is it so difficult to understand? 60% of mortality is in nursing homes, and privately run one are the worst.

    • Thanks: hhsiii
  8. Venturing out from the Sailer blog to Unz’ Pravda is like going from the 19th hole at the golf club to the Star Wars Mos Eisley bar full of aliens.

    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    Look into the mirror, man. There is a reason Sailer is hosted on this site, and not on many other sites.

    Not that I think badly of Sailer or you, but you are delusional.
    , @Sean
    There are always top MDs at the 19th hole who could be saving lives in ER. Ditto the Sailer blog.
  9. Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
    Personally speaking, aside from the occasional mask clad encounters at the market and various drive thru’s, I see almost no one. Yet every day I check my favorite Coronameter website and a thousand or more new infections are reported. It’s now been over a month that we’ve been under a virtual house arrest, so one would assume that any infections contracted prior to the quarantine would have surfaced by now. I would also assume that those counted as new infections are only those who are showing symptoms and therefore represent 10% or less of the actual total. By my math, what we’re doing is just postponing the inevitable.
    I say this as someone with a lot at risk. I see no other option than to open things back up and protect the vulnerable as best we can. Perhaps someone can explain to me why this isn’t such a good idea.

    • Replies: @Coemgen
    I live near a quasi-interstate-rest-stop that serves as a male homosexual hookup point. In spite of the Massachusetts Governor's social-distancing order, business there seems to be quite brisk.

    I wonder how the "booty call" business is doing?

    Life in an "anarcho-tyranny" country'
    , @vhrm

    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
     
    It's an interesting question and i haven't seen it addressed at all, really.

    A couple of weeks ago i joked around here (in different terms) that anyone still getting infected should be interrogated and punished since they clearly sinned against against our Lord, Lockdown. But i haven't heard anything about it.

    In NorCal every week they close whatever remaining parking lot near a piece of grass that they discover, but i HIGHLY doubt that has anything to do with anything.

    The emerging data about how blacks and Hispanics are hardest hit might provide a hint. In my area the diverse guys down the block are still meeting up in moderate size groups with no qualms.

    No doubt we just dragging out the inevitable (I try not to think about that part too much to preserve my sanity), but it would be interesting if the states at least TRIED to do / report on post Lockdown contact tracing.

    , @Ron Unz

    I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
     
    Well, I'm no expert on the subject, but is it really so surprising? The Coronavirus is extremely contagious, so without this lockdown it would be growing exponentially, with the number of infected doubling every three days or so. A solid lockdown stops that, but you still get some new infections for a while as things tail off.

    In terms of the R0 parameter, it's supposedly something like 3 or 4 under ordinary conditions, but after China's very strong lockdown, they reduced it to 0.3, which allowed them to almost entirely stamp out the disease in a couple of months. I doubt California's lockdown is nearly as strong, but I'd hope we've reduced R0 to something like 0.4 or maybe 0.5. But given that the state has had 33K known infections (and probably 5-10x as many actual ones), you'll still get lots of new infections for a while.

    An R0 of 0.5 isn't wonderful...but it's much better than an R0 of 3.5!
    , @epebble
    I am not enlightened and think others have advanced plausible reasons. I am throwing possible latency of Covid virus. Since original infection is slowly being found out as being more widespread and older than thought (Santa Clara report), it is possible some initial infections did not incubate promptly but remained dormant. They may be activating in a delayed response mode. As far as I know, Covid virus has not been proven to not go through dormant/active states like some other viruses.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_latency
    , @Bernard
    If it is the case that the virus is so infectious that despite these measures, it continues to spread, is there any other option other than to let it rip?
    I don’t think we can postpone the inevitable long enough without an economic collapse while we wait on a cure or vaccine.
  10. @Steve Sailer
    Bergamo is at 1650 feet elevation, Nembro around 1100 feet, Selvino at 3150 feet.

    Oldsters who live at the base of the Alps have probably spent much more time higher up the Alps (skiing, hiking, working at the lodge) than people who don’t live at the base of the Alps.

  11. @Steve Sailer
    Italians kiss their grandparents a lot more than, say, Swedes do.

    Social kissing sounds like it can be particularly infectious because multiple people can kiss the same person's cheek.

  12. In contrast, I am, physically and morally, in perfect shape, so because, unlike Italians, I deserve to live forever, I can never die.

    Those too young to die (literally too healthy) think like that. The Classical attitude is to be stoic about one’s own fate, but only one’s own. Actually welcoming one’s own death without actively bringing it about is too little discussed. I would rather be dead than in a nursing home, but I expect when the time came I would not take my own life because suicide would be too traumatic for my surviving family. Dying of COVID-19 would get me out of it and secretly may be a release in the minds of many elderly people. Old folks’ homes are basically hospices where the wait can be interminable.

    In the UK it has always been a very common thing for residents in old folk’s homes to have signed ‘Do Not Resuscitate’ forms. It is not uncommon for those being looked after in their own houses to have chosen DNR. They don’t want to go to hospital, and I dare say the hospitals don’t want them.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    In the UK it has always been a very common thing for residents in old folk’s homes to have signed ‘Do Not Resuscitate’ forms. It is not uncommon for those being looked after in their own houses to have chosen DNR. They don’t want to go to hospital, and I dare say the hospitals don’t want them.

    DNR orders and other advance directives are quite common in the US too, however hospitals and other health care providers frequently ignore them. What happens way too often is that an elderly person is in the hospital, receiving pallative care only, when a family member who generally hasn't been involved in the patient's life very much - the "Daughter from California" - shows up hootin' and hollerin' and demands that the hospital Do Everything. When this happens, hospital staff *always* complies with what the Daughter from California demands and will ignore the patient's advance directive. Almost invariably this drags out the death process at exhorbitant cost.
  13. @Steve Sailer
    Bergamo is at 1650 feet elevation, Nembro around 1100 feet, Selvino at 3150 feet.

    That’s not very high. I live in the city of Oakland California. That is to say I’m within the city limits not the suburbs. I am wring this comment in my den on my house’s ground floor. That floor is exactly at 1,000 feet elevation.

    I am not quite at the summit. The suburbs are higher. Mount Diablo is about 4,000 feet. Kit Carson called Mount Diablo “The Little Mountain”.

    Oakland of course is at sea level.

  14. Blind Gossip’s dig at Tom Hank’s wife Rita Wilson

    This actress chose to emphasize the terrible side effects of the drug treatment she took rather than how she felt before she took the drugs. There was a very intentional political motive behind her doing that.

  15. “Bergamo is so hilly that a 52 degree funicular was installed in 1887 to connect the Lower City to the Upper City.”

    No wonder they were hard hit, they’re packed in those cars/trains like sardines:

    (If you bother to watch, use the 2X speed option; won’t diminish the view.)

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    Trieste has a more spacious answer. For the line leading uphill to (almost) Slovenia, they use a full-sized tram, which is taken up and down the steep stretches by a cable tractor serving as a tugboat of sorts.

    An accident shut it down for repairs in 2016, and ironically it was due to reopen next month. Has it?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=82RlLD-anDo
    , @TomSchmidt
    I've taken that funicular. Citta Alta has some gorgeous squares, and my second-favorite restaurant in Italy. Make no mistake: Bergamo is a wealthy city, and the trappings up in
    Citta Alta reflect that, like the tomb of Bartolomeo Colleoni.
  16. OT: Labradoodle breeder in charge of the coronavirus task force
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8247067/HHS-chief-Azar-aide-former-dog-breeder-steer-pandemic-task-force.html

    We remember “Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job.” Bush nominated Brown in January 2003 for the directorship of FEMA. Brown was sworn into his position on April 15, 2003

    “Before joining FEMA, Brown was the Judges and Stewards Commissioner for the International Arabian Horse Association from 1989-2001.” – Wiki

    • Replies: @anonymous
    For christ's sake, did it have to be labradoodles? Couldn't he have bred horses, or even normal dogs? Labradoodles are a crime against nature.
  17. Is Nembro a miasmic lowland slum? Nah, it’s at the base of the Alps.

    Interesting 2018 story from Brescia, near Bergamo:

    From The Local:

    Source of Italy’s legionella outbreak identified: don’t worry, it’s not the water

    The source of the legionella bacteria that sickened hundreds of people in northern Italy has been identified as cooling towers, not tap water.

    “I assure all citizens that they can continue to use and drink water from the mains in total serenity,” the health councillor for Lombardy, Giulio Gallera, said on Monday.

    Tests detected the bacteria, which causes Legionnaires’ diseases and other respiratory illnesses, in nine of 14 cooling towers in the province of Brescia, he said. Six of 12 samples taken from the River Chiese, which runs from Trentino to Brescia and into Lake Idro, also tested positive.

    In total 405 people in Brescia suffered symptoms of pneumonia in recent weeks, with 42 cases confirmed to have been caused by legionella. Most of those affected were elderly and the majority were men.

    The bacteria is transmitted by inhaling drops of contaminated water, which can be dispersed over several kilometres if it escapes from large industrial cooling towers.

    Imagine a bunch of iStevers coming down with Legionnaires’ disease after running anti-Kung Flu humidifiers in their houses 24/7. Ironic.

    Italy has the highest number of cases of legionella bacterium infections in Europe, according to the most recent annual report by the European Centre for Disease Control. The number of detected cases is constantly rising across the continent, with better surveillance, population aging, increased travel and climate change among the contributing factors.

  18. @Achmed E. Newman
    It's really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It's called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don't trust anything like this. It's fudge factors all the way down.

    Now, I'll get all anecdotal on your asses now to just demonstrate how much trouble this panic has been causing. Some homeless guy with his (pretty-nice, blue) scooter was sitting next to a church in our neighborhood. Me and my 8 y/o boy (me on roller-blades on the road and he on a bike on the sidewalks) passed him one way, then 30 minutes later were on the other side of the street coming toward him. My son would have passed 5 or 6 ft from where he was hanging out.

    The guy started yelling loud as he could at me about us being too close, and "you can't take a kid around, you're tryin' to kill me, get away!" or some such stuff. I wasn't gonna take that and got on the sidewalk rolling toward him and telling him to shut the hell up. (We'd have been glad to go way around, but I'm not gonna take abuse like that.) He threatened to kick my ass, and I'm not at all a big guy, but I kept on coming.

    The guy got on his scooter, as I was I telling him to f-off and such. Then he turned around 75 yards away and came at me in a game of chicken, he on the scooter and me on rollerblades, passed with 1 foot of me (apparently forgetful of the R0 data), as I tried to grab a sleeve to dump his crazy ass onto the road.

    Then, I started rollerblading down the road after him in this neighborhood, let's call it "Crestview" or something, just for fun, and, see now here's the part you'd have liked, Steve, if I had been just a little bit quicker. I yelled "get out of Crestview" but without the "...Lebowski!" Opportunities like that don't come often.

    Yes, he was mentally ill, but all this hysteria had not helped that man one bit. Me neither.

    Appreciate that story, but don’t fuck with mentally ill homeless dudes. I had an uncle who was a schizo and spent a lot of his adult life homeless. He passed away living under a CA highway overpass. Anyways, I pissed him off one day and I literally had to run for my life. He would amuse us as shithead kids with his stories about being tortured by Satan and Ozzy Osbourne. As an adult I realized we were dumbasses for egging him on, he could have killed us without any thought to it. Be safe, avoid the homeless like the plague, or Covid 19.

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  19. It’s definitely looking like the estimates of millions of deaths were way high. Clearly this won’t be a civilizational event like the Black Death. Nonetheless, proponents of the “It’s just the flu, bro” argument might consider some current data points:

    74 doctors dead of Covid-19 in Italy:
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-italian-doctors-fatalities-reach-tragic-levels-as-they-fight-covid-1/

    119 NHS staff dead of Covid-19 in Britain:
    https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article

    NYPD coronavirus death total reaches 30:
    https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/nypd-coronavirus-death-total-reaches-30-departments-sick-rate-continues-to-fall.html

    Nearly 100 US transit workers have died of Covid-19, including 68 at the NYC MTA alone:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/us-bus-drivers-lack-life-saving-basic-protections-transit-worker-deaths-coronavirus

    There’s lot more of this, easily searchable. Medscape has a list of over 400 deceased medical personnel from around the world at https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976#vp_15 . Police One maintains a list of LE Covid deaths at https://www.policeone.com/coronavirus-covid-19/articles/covid-19-law-enforcement-deaths-3ftkdPnVffq55iHU/ .

    This data does not seem consistent with a bad flu season.

    • Agree: Coemgen
    • Disagree: Hippopotamusdrome, Mehen
    • Replies: @UK

    119 NHS staff dead of Covid-19 in Britain:
    https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article
     
    1.5 million people work for the NHS. They are far from all "front-line" but they are both the most likely people to be exposed and the most likely to be connected at home and in social circles to those exposed.

    1 in 12,605 dying with would be remarkably small for that group.
    , @Intelligent Dasein

    Nonetheless, proponents of the “It’s just the flu, bro” argument might consider some current data points:
     
    Okay then, let's change the optics on this. Forget "It's just the flu, bro." Say instead that in the very worst hit area, even after statisticians arbitrarily increased the number of deaths, it's about as bad as having the measles, the mumps, and the seasonal flu active at once---a situation which was the de facto condition throughout the Western world for centuries, and which no one ever thought to paralyze the planet over.

    At the very worst, we are taking a minor notch back to pre-vaccination era morbidity levels. Not even a big notch, but a teeny-tiny one. Something like this was bound to happen sooner or later anyway. Is it worth the draconian response? I don't think so.
    , @Kratoklastes
    What's the basis for comparison?

    If a cop or EMT or ICU nurse dies of the 'flu during 'flu season, does it make the Globe and Mail? I don't read regular news much, but I would be really surprised if that was the case.
    , @Captain Tripps

    There’s lot more of this, easily searchable. Medscape has a list of over 400 deceased medical personnel from around the world at https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976#vp_15 .
     
    Well, the World Health Organization (WHO, but I like the rock band much better) breaks out the global health workforce into these categories:

    - Medical doctors
    - Nursing and midwifery personnel
    - Dentistry personnel
    - Pharmaceutical personnel
    - Environmental and Occupational Health and Hygiene Personnel
    - Medical and Pathology Laboratory Personnel
    - Physiotherapy personnel
    - Traditional and Complementary Medicine personnel
    - Community Health Workers

    Just taking the most probable at risk of that workforce (doctors, nurses, lab specialists), the 2018 global workforce total is: ~18,134,000

    So, 400/18,134,000 = .0000022% of the global healthcare workforce has succumbed to the disease. Let's say that total is under-counted by factor of 4, and not 400 dead, but 1600 dead (because who knows how many have died from COVID19 in closed societies like Iran, China and Russia). 1600/18,134,000 = .000009%.

    So, we can safely say that the global healthcare workforce will weather this storm. This ain't The Somme, Verdun, Ypres, Passchendaele, or the Marne. It turns out that, in a pandemic (by definition a regional/global outbreak of a highly infectious disease) healthcare workers are at greater risk of contracting it. Who knew?
  20. So to sum it up, this has been an incredible overreaction to a small ifr disease highly concentrated among nursing home patients that have a six month life expectancy without the ‘rona?

  21. @Bernard
    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
    Personally speaking, aside from the occasional mask clad encounters at the market and various drive thru’s, I see almost no one. Yet every day I check my favorite Coronameter website and a thousand or more new infections are reported. It’s now been over a month that we’ve been under a virtual house arrest, so one would assume that any infections contracted prior to the quarantine would have surfaced by now. I would also assume that those counted as new infections are only those who are showing symptoms and therefore represent 10% or less of the actual total. By my math, what we’re doing is just postponing the inevitable.
    I say this as someone with a lot at risk. I see no other option than to open things back up and protect the vulnerable as best we can. Perhaps someone can explain to me why this isn’t such a good idea.

    I live near a quasi-interstate-rest-stop that serves as a male homosexual hookup point. In spite of the Massachusetts Governor’s social-distancing order, business there seems to be quite brisk.

    I wonder how the “booty call” business is doing?

    Life in an “anarcho-tyranny” country’

  22. Well, much closer to home there were some very grim numbers about NYC in this morning’s NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Given the possibilities of Coronavirus deaths being both over-estimated and under-estimated, they just worked out the “excess deaths” for a number of countries and cities.

    In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. So in little more than one month, probably something like 0.2% of the entire population died from the Coronavirus. That’s a pretty big number, especially since I doubt that more than a fraction of the local population had been infected during the relevant window for those deaths.

    Based on that figure, I think it’s difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%. Maybe it really is closer to the 1% that lots of people had earlier been casually assuming.

    I also think it conclusively demonstrates that the recent Santa Clara and LA infection estimates were just as ridiculous as lots of knowledgeable statisticians had argued.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.

    • Agree: Muggles
    • Replies: @anon

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.
     
    Because holding that position enables them to pose as the last sane man in a world gone mad, hence all the "If" quotes going around. It also obviates the need to confront a difficult reality and/or rethink their preconceptions.
    , @vhrm

    But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.
     
    Still not a hoaxer, but definitely anti-Lockdown.

    I think some amount of the excess deaths are caused by the anxiety of the Fear and the Lockdown.

    Personally i can't listen to the daily briefings by Newsom, Cuomo and Trump because i just get angry. And I'm not a particular high strung person. Also, listening to the various NPR shows (which i also have to ration on the same grounds) the hosts and reporters mention anxiety OFTEN. Sometimes in the stories, but also in the little interactions around the stories. I believe there is a huge amount of anxiety out there. It's probably even higher among people who feel very personally at risk.

    Stress is not good for people, especially the frail elderly and people with heart trouble.

    I honestly have no idea how many, and I'd like trustworthy epidemiologists and geriatric medicine people to look into it and tell us.

    As soon as i opened that NYT article i wondered if they had Sweden in there. And, lo! There it is at the bottom of the list with no excess deaths beyond the reported Covid-19 deaths.
    From what i understand the fear is relatively low in Sweden.

    I don't think it's the whole story, but definitely part of it.

    , @Peterike
    “ In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. ”

    The Times is only comparing this year to the previous ten years in NY. For other countries the comparison they use is even fewer years. In other words, meaningless.

    It’s the same scam the global warmers use. Pick your start and end point carefully and you can make a trend go any way you like.
    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    The IFR will depend on the demographics of the area. In New York State the IFR may reach 1% while in California it could be .6%

    NY is 18% Black, 12% Puerto Rican / Dominican and 7% Asian. while CA is 6% Black, 31% Mexican and 14% Asian . The average age in New York is 40 versus just 36 in California.

    So we would expect the Fatality rate to be lower in sunny California than cold New York based on the different population density and different demographics....
    , @Anonymous
    Ron, I may be in the minority here but I agree with both yours and Steve's positions on reducing Chinese Virus spread. A non-zero % will be living on debilitated lungs (or other body parts) for the rest of their lives, which I would think is worth avoiding too.

    From an anti-immigrationist perspective I really don't get the push to downplay this. We are finally getting the sort of problem that the reaction and solution needed for reducing globalism and immigration dovetails with.

    And for higher risk influence like yourself and Steve, and a lot of older white voters, I'm not sure why we would want acceleration.

    I guess others MMV.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

     

    It compares against the "Historical average". Some years the flu is mild with 12,000 dead, some years are worse, with 60,000 dead. What would the graph show if instead of the average, it was against one of the above average seasons?
    , @Hail

    it’s difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%
     
    The figures coming out of European countries which have done randomized population sampling (such as the recent Easter Weekend [April 10-13] randomized antibody test in Stockholm County, Sweden) are all pointing to a best-bet range for a true fatality rate of 0.05% to 0.2% in their countries.

    Is there some reason the same virus would be much more/less deadly in one country than in the next? Or are the European testing authorities controlled by a cabal of Corona-Hoaxers? (Or, as Greg Cochran wrote of Dr Ioannidis, are the European testing authorities "lying for money"?)

  23. The good news is that doctors are learning far more about this novel disease every week, so they ought to be able to bring the Infection Fatality Rate down over time.The good news is that doctors are learning far more about this novel disease every week, so they ought to be able to bring the Infection Fatality Rate down over time.

    This would be good news. After doctors figure out the nuances of the disease, they could launch a program to make the disease less deadly and to raise the herd immunity at the same time. To wit: Slowly open up the country and allow more and more young-healthy people, then gradually middle aged people to catch the disease on the assumption it won’t do them much hard. Using the ubitquitous oximeter, when someone has an dissolved O2 less than, say 80%, get them to medical care and isolated so they can’t infect others.

    I think the outcome would be a coronavirus that mutates to become more widespread but less dangerous.

    It the fact the people are infecting others, then dying, that makes this pandemic so dangerous. There’s not much reason for it to mutate if it can be infectious and deadly. Make it so that the disease can be either deadly or infectious, but not both, and sequester and treat the people who would become deathly ill early.

    As of this time, covid-19 is changing us. It is time we changed covid-19.

  24. Tuscany is a true paradis terrestre. Think coastal SoCal but more green and scenic and with no smog and overpopulation. No wonder so many rich old people retire there, and no wonder they enforced the shutdown to protect themselves.

    A propos, has it even been established that there is a lasting immunity for the survivors ? The labradoodle honcho is heading the Trump’s task force, pretty funny and tragic at the same time. As far as I know, some doctors are trying to share information amongst themselves via facebook groups, but this is not the best way to go to say the least. Too many questions with no answers: 1) is there lasting immunity; 2) how does the virus kill; 3) who does it kill and at what rate; 4) is there any treatment apart from oxygen masks and tylenol, I think it has been decisively established that the Trump’s cocktail is about as effective as his anti-immigration policy.

    • Replies: @Coemgen
    I was thinking, as I read your comment, that how can one think of Tuscany without thinking of wine?

    Then, as I read on, I realized you had a TDS axe to grind.

    The bait-and-switch maneuver works much better when the bait is viable. Next time, mention the wine.

  25. @Bernard
    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
    Personally speaking, aside from the occasional mask clad encounters at the market and various drive thru’s, I see almost no one. Yet every day I check my favorite Coronameter website and a thousand or more new infections are reported. It’s now been over a month that we’ve been under a virtual house arrest, so one would assume that any infections contracted prior to the quarantine would have surfaced by now. I would also assume that those counted as new infections are only those who are showing symptoms and therefore represent 10% or less of the actual total. By my math, what we’re doing is just postponing the inevitable.
    I say this as someone with a lot at risk. I see no other option than to open things back up and protect the vulnerable as best we can. Perhaps someone can explain to me why this isn’t such a good idea.

    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.

    It’s an interesting question and i haven’t seen it addressed at all, really.

    A couple of weeks ago i joked around here (in different terms) that anyone still getting infected should be interrogated and punished since they clearly sinned against against our Lord, Lockdown. But i haven’t heard anything about it.

    In NorCal every week they close whatever remaining parking lot near a piece of grass that they discover, but i HIGHLY doubt that has anything to do with anything.

    The emerging data about how blacks and Hispanics are hardest hit might provide a hint. In my area the diverse guys down the block are still meeting up in moderate size groups with no qualms.

    No doubt we just dragging out the inevitable (I try not to think about that part too much to preserve my sanity), but it would be interesting if the states at least TRIED to do / report on post Lockdown contact tracing.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    The emerging data about how blacks and Hispanics are hardest hit might provide a hint. In my area the diverse guys down the block are still meeting up in moderate size groups with no qualms.

    Something related yet different is happening in NYC: the Hasidim often are ignoring social distancing rules, and as best I can tell while their neighborhoods have fairly high infection rates they do not have high death rates. While they do not seem anywhere near as physically robust as minorities they also seem to fare much better when infected. I have no idea why
    , @Steve Sailer
    I analyzed the change in official case counts by neighborhood in Los Angeles from April 1 to April 13. On April 1, fashionable neighborhoods near the the Hollywood Hills had far more cases per capita than elsewhere. No doubt this partly reflects higher ability to get tested by the affluent and well-connected, but it also likely reflected the well-connected being better connected and thus getting infected more early in the epidemic. By April 13, the growth of case counts in places like nightlife capital West Hollywood had slowed significantly, but it had spread up a lot in Latino areas.
    , @Intelligent Dasein

    It’s an interesting question and i haven’t seen it addressed at all, really.
     
    Actually, I and others have addressed that a lot. It's because exposure to the virus is already quite common and increasing case counts are solely a function of the number of tests performed, not of a spreading epidemic. Herd immunity is already here.
  26. Have the victims of the Nova Scotia mass shooting been officially toe-tagged as Covid19 positive? Seems like an opportunity. Don’t pass it up, Justin.

  27. If COVID causes hypoxia, then maybe people who are better acclimated to lower-oxygen environments – people from the Alps, skiers – might take longer to notice that their lungs are crapping out, thus get to a hospital too late for anything but a ventilator, thus more likely to die.

  28. @CJ
    It's definitely looking like the estimates of millions of deaths were way high. Clearly this won't be a civilizational event like the Black Death. Nonetheless, proponents of the "It's just the flu, bro" argument might consider some current data points:

    74 doctors dead of Covid-19 in Italy:
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-italian-doctors-fatalities-reach-tragic-levels-as-they-fight-covid-1/

    119 NHS staff dead of Covid-19 in Britain:
    https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article

    NYPD coronavirus death total reaches 30:
    https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/nypd-coronavirus-death-total-reaches-30-departments-sick-rate-continues-to-fall.html

    Nearly 100 US transit workers have died of Covid-19, including 68 at the NYC MTA alone:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/us-bus-drivers-lack-life-saving-basic-protections-transit-worker-deaths-coronavirus

    There's lot more of this, easily searchable. Medscape has a list of over 400 deceased medical personnel from around the world at https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976#vp_15 . Police One maintains a list of LE Covid deaths at https://www.policeone.com/coronavirus-covid-19/articles/covid-19-law-enforcement-deaths-3ftkdPnVffq55iHU/ .

    This data does not seem consistent with a bad flu season.

    119 NHS staff dead of Covid-19 in Britain:
    https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article

    1.5 million people work for the NHS. They are far from all “front-line” but they are both the most likely people to be exposed and the most likely to be connected at home and in social circles to those exposed.

    1 in 12,605 dying with would be remarkably small for that group.

    • Replies: @slumber_j
    And the NYPD employs--incredibly--over 55,000 people, so 30 deaths isn't as horrific as it sounds.
  29. anon[114] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ron Unz
    Well, much closer to home there were some very grim numbers about NYC in this morning's NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Given the possibilities of Coronavirus deaths being both over-estimated and under-estimated, they just worked out the "excess deaths" for a number of countries and cities.

    In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. So in little more than one month, probably something like 0.2% of the entire population died from the Coronavirus. That's a pretty big number, especially since I doubt that more than a fraction of the local population had been infected during the relevant window for those deaths.

    Based on that figure, I think it's difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%. Maybe it really is closer to the 1% that lots of people had earlier been casually assuming.

    I also think it conclusively demonstrates that the recent Santa Clara and LA infection estimates were just as ridiculous as lots of knowledgeable statisticians had argued.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can't see how they can continue to hold that position.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.

    Because holding that position enables them to pose as the last sane man in a world gone mad, hence all the “If” quotes going around. It also obviates the need to confront a difficult reality and/or rethink their preconceptions.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz


    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.
     
    Because holding that position enables them to pose as the last sane man in a world gone mad, hence all the “If” quotes going around. It also obviates the need to confront a difficult reality and/or rethink their preconceptions.
     
    Yes, I'd definitely agree with that. I also think the same situation applies to another critical comment made by someone else upthread:

    Venturing out from the Sailer blog to Unz’ Pravda is like going from the 19th hole at the golf club to the Star Wars Mos Eisley bar full of aliens.
     
    Those so interested can take a look and draw their own conclusions:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-our-coronavirus-catastrophe-as-biowarfare-blowback/

    https://www.unz.com/page/american-pravda-series/
  30. @Sean

    In contrast, I am, physically and morally, in perfect shape, so because, unlike Italians, I deserve to live forever, I can never die.
     
    Those too young to die (literally too healthy) think like that. The Classical attitude is to be stoic about one's own fate, but only one's own. Actually welcoming one's own death without actively bringing it about is too little discussed. I would rather be dead than in a nursing home, but I expect when the time came I would not take my own life because suicide would be too traumatic for my surviving family. Dying of COVID-19 would get me out of it and secretly may be a release in the minds of many elderly people. Old folks' homes are basically hospices where the wait can be interminable.

    In the UK it has always been a very common thing for residents in old folk's homes to have signed 'Do Not Resuscitate' forms. It is not uncommon for those being looked after in their own houses to have chosen DNR. They don't want to go to hospital, and I dare say the hospitals don't want them.

    In the UK it has always been a very common thing for residents in old folk’s homes to have signed ‘Do Not Resuscitate’ forms. It is not uncommon for those being looked after in their own houses to have chosen DNR. They don’t want to go to hospital, and I dare say the hospitals don’t want them.

    DNR orders and other advance directives are quite common in the US too, however hospitals and other health care providers frequently ignore them. What happens way too often is that an elderly person is in the hospital, receiving pallative care only, when a family member who generally hasn’t been involved in the patient’s life very much – the “Daughter from California” – shows up hootin’ and hollerin’ and demands that the hospital Do Everything. When this happens, hospital staff *always* complies with what the Daughter from California demands and will ignore the patient’s advance directive. Almost invariably this drags out the death process at exhorbitant cost.

    • Replies: @Sean
    The danger of having medical insurance! Daughter from Cali with no financial skin in the game must be why the hospitals like to call them "Respect Forms". I have been told by someone who works in the field in Britain that not infrequently it is the next of kin who make the decision for DNR to be marked in the elderly and infirm person's medical records. Of late, the elderly who are being sent to old folks homes from hospital, and those in care homes who already have long standing DNR are increasingly being asked to sign that if they get coronavirus they do not want to go to hospital.


    At least half of the COVID-19 deaths are among the residents of care homes, or people in their own house who are being looked after by social services. The owners of the institutions have little incentive to see their business model take a huge hit in an epidemic, and that is why the main complaints about the infirm being asked to sign these new COVID-19 palliative care only (which often means an overdose of opium to finish off those in distress) is coming from the management/ owners of old folks homes.

    There was never much chance of hospitals being overwhelmed by COVID-19 because almost all of those it kills are in a demographic that there are procedures in place for denying treatment to already. Indeed, one might say flattening the curve of hospital admissions is inherent in everyday modern medicine, and were it not for the fact that there are people making a profit out of warehousing the elderly for a few years at the end of their lives, it would be accepted as absolutely necessary to speed the end in more cases. There are people with religious objection, but I honestly think many don't realise they can exit comfortably and with a little dignity. The few people at the end of their lives I have talked to were worried about being kept alive in hospital too long.

  31. @Black-hole creator
    Tuscany is a true paradis terrestre. Think coastal SoCal but more green and scenic and with no smog and overpopulation. No wonder so many rich old people retire there, and no wonder they enforced the shutdown to protect themselves.

    A propos, has it even been established that there is a lasting immunity for the survivors ? The labradoodle honcho is heading the Trump's task force, pretty funny and tragic at the same time. As far as I know, some doctors are trying to share information amongst themselves via facebook groups, but this is not the best way to go to say the least. Too many questions with no answers: 1) is there lasting immunity; 2) how does the virus kill; 3) who does it kill and at what rate; 4) is there any treatment apart from oxygen masks and tylenol, I think it has been decisively established that the Trump's cocktail is about as effective as his anti-immigration policy.

    I was thinking, as I read your comment, that how can one think of Tuscany without thinking of wine?

    Then, as I read on, I realized you had a TDS axe to grind.

    The bait-and-switch maneuver works much better when the bait is viable. Next time, mention the wine.

    • Replies: @Black-hole creator
    Ugh, just because I do not think Trump is the messiah, does not mean I have TDS. You Trump groupies are so predictable. For the record, I think Trump is just a buffoon but that does not mean I like Democrats (or Republicans per se) or that I am a SJW.

    As to the wine, California has some good wine too. I am not a real wine connoisseur, so I am not going to rave about Italian wines. Blind tests show that most of the hype is BS anyway.
  32. UK says:

    What will be the overall worst week for deaths so far this year and will also be peak Coronavirus in the UK has been pretty bad, but it is less bad than week 1 of the year 2000, when there was a bad flu outbreak.

    Meanwhile, the UK’s lockdown has been no more effective than Sweden’s very light one, which means we could have done that and still had a less bad month than a bad flu season 20 years ago that people didn’t much pay attention to.

    But instead we have followed the inept CCP control freak model and spazzed out our economy and imprisoned ourselves.

    Perhaps Unz is being paid money by the CCP to spread such panic so as to distract the Chinese people from their problems at home with problems in the West…(-;

    http://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-52361519

  33. @vhrm

    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
     
    It's an interesting question and i haven't seen it addressed at all, really.

    A couple of weeks ago i joked around here (in different terms) that anyone still getting infected should be interrogated and punished since they clearly sinned against against our Lord, Lockdown. But i haven't heard anything about it.

    In NorCal every week they close whatever remaining parking lot near a piece of grass that they discover, but i HIGHLY doubt that has anything to do with anything.

    The emerging data about how blacks and Hispanics are hardest hit might provide a hint. In my area the diverse guys down the block are still meeting up in moderate size groups with no qualms.

    No doubt we just dragging out the inevitable (I try not to think about that part too much to preserve my sanity), but it would be interesting if the states at least TRIED to do / report on post Lockdown contact tracing.

    The emerging data about how blacks and Hispanics are hardest hit might provide a hint. In my area the diverse guys down the block are still meeting up in moderate size groups with no qualms.

    Something related yet different is happening in NYC: the Hasidim often are ignoring social distancing rules, and as best I can tell while their neighborhoods have fairly high infection rates they do not have high death rates. While they do not seem anywhere near as physically robust as minorities they also seem to fare much better when infected. I have no idea why

  34. @vhrm

    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
     
    It's an interesting question and i haven't seen it addressed at all, really.

    A couple of weeks ago i joked around here (in different terms) that anyone still getting infected should be interrogated and punished since they clearly sinned against against our Lord, Lockdown. But i haven't heard anything about it.

    In NorCal every week they close whatever remaining parking lot near a piece of grass that they discover, but i HIGHLY doubt that has anything to do with anything.

    The emerging data about how blacks and Hispanics are hardest hit might provide a hint. In my area the diverse guys down the block are still meeting up in moderate size groups with no qualms.

    No doubt we just dragging out the inevitable (I try not to think about that part too much to preserve my sanity), but it would be interesting if the states at least TRIED to do / report on post Lockdown contact tracing.

    I analyzed the change in official case counts by neighborhood in Los Angeles from April 1 to April 13. On April 1, fashionable neighborhoods near the the Hollywood Hills had far more cases per capita than elsewhere. No doubt this partly reflects higher ability to get tested by the affluent and well-connected, but it also likely reflected the well-connected being better connected and thus getting infected more early in the epidemic. By April 13, the growth of case counts in places like nightlife capital West Hollywood had slowed significantly, but it had spread up a lot in Latino areas.

  35. @CJ
    It's definitely looking like the estimates of millions of deaths were way high. Clearly this won't be a civilizational event like the Black Death. Nonetheless, proponents of the "It's just the flu, bro" argument might consider some current data points:

    74 doctors dead of Covid-19 in Italy:
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-italian-doctors-fatalities-reach-tragic-levels-as-they-fight-covid-1/

    119 NHS staff dead of Covid-19 in Britain:
    https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article

    NYPD coronavirus death total reaches 30:
    https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/nypd-coronavirus-death-total-reaches-30-departments-sick-rate-continues-to-fall.html

    Nearly 100 US transit workers have died of Covid-19, including 68 at the NYC MTA alone:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/us-bus-drivers-lack-life-saving-basic-protections-transit-worker-deaths-coronavirus

    There's lot more of this, easily searchable. Medscape has a list of over 400 deceased medical personnel from around the world at https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976#vp_15 . Police One maintains a list of LE Covid deaths at https://www.policeone.com/coronavirus-covid-19/articles/covid-19-law-enforcement-deaths-3ftkdPnVffq55iHU/ .

    This data does not seem consistent with a bad flu season.

    Nonetheless, proponents of the “It’s just the flu, bro” argument might consider some current data points:

    Okay then, let’s change the optics on this. Forget “It’s just the flu, bro.” Say instead that in the very worst hit area, even after statisticians arbitrarily increased the number of deaths, it’s about as bad as having the measles, the mumps, and the seasonal flu active at once—a situation which was the de facto condition throughout the Western world for centuries, and which no one ever thought to paralyze the planet over.

    At the very worst, we are taking a minor notch back to pre-vaccination era morbidity levels. Not even a big notch, but a teeny-tiny one. Something like this was bound to happen sooner or later anyway. Is it worth the draconian response? I don’t think so.

    • Replies: @adreadline
    Now that's a saner view, much more accepting of evidence. I strongly disagree the number of deaths was increased "arbitrarily'', but we are not expected to mostly agree in any case. I suspect you will not find much acceptance among the folks protesting for businesses to reopen, but I could be wrong.

    One thing I find curious is how few, if any, people come forward and say that "we know there is a very real risk many millions of Americans could die from the new coronavirus, including many dozens, possibly hundreds of thousands of young Americans. Many millions more might never fully recover from the disease. We are aware of that. But businesses have to reopen. Many dozens of millions of workers depend on those jobs/our economy simply cannot be brought to a halt like this/we have to keep our position as the wealthiest country, etc. That's final''. They would be being honest. They would not be hiding anything, and would be acknowledging the situation without yielding. Instead, they minimize the pandemic and outright lie. How does that help their case?

  36. @vhrm

    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
     
    It's an interesting question and i haven't seen it addressed at all, really.

    A couple of weeks ago i joked around here (in different terms) that anyone still getting infected should be interrogated and punished since they clearly sinned against against our Lord, Lockdown. But i haven't heard anything about it.

    In NorCal every week they close whatever remaining parking lot near a piece of grass that they discover, but i HIGHLY doubt that has anything to do with anything.

    The emerging data about how blacks and Hispanics are hardest hit might provide a hint. In my area the diverse guys down the block are still meeting up in moderate size groups with no qualms.

    No doubt we just dragging out the inevitable (I try not to think about that part too much to preserve my sanity), but it would be interesting if the states at least TRIED to do / report on post Lockdown contact tracing.

    It’s an interesting question and i haven’t seen it addressed at all, really.

    Actually, I and others have addressed that a lot. It’s because exposure to the virus is already quite common and increasing case counts are solely a function of the number of tests performed, not of a spreading epidemic. Herd immunity is already here.

    • Replies: @Travis
    we must be getting close to herd immunity in New York and New Jersey

    The NY metro area already has 23,000 CV deaths which indicates we had 3 million infected 4 weeks ago based on an IFR of 0.8%. If the number infected doubled over the last month we would have about 6 million infected today in the New York metro area, about 30% of the population.
    , @Elli
    The proportion of deaths to identified cases is over 5% in some states, indicating that testing is not increasing. Even more striking when you consider that deaths lag tests.

    A hard hit region, near NYC, might have had 1 in 2000, 0.05% of its population die so far, indicating around 5% infection rate (3 to 10% range looking at other indicators) .

    Consider that is has burned through the nursing homes, 40 to 50% of deaths are in that population, 90% of NJ nursing homes affected. That means lower death rates in the wider younger population when it spreads there, but also that nursing home deaths are not a good indicator of general prevalence.

    There are still many, many nursing home residents who can still die of this, and their caretakers at risk, but the rest of us are far away from herd immunity, even in the hot zones, NYC possibly excepted.
  37. @Ron Unz
    Well, much closer to home there were some very grim numbers about NYC in this morning's NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Given the possibilities of Coronavirus deaths being both over-estimated and under-estimated, they just worked out the "excess deaths" for a number of countries and cities.

    In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. So in little more than one month, probably something like 0.2% of the entire population died from the Coronavirus. That's a pretty big number, especially since I doubt that more than a fraction of the local population had been infected during the relevant window for those deaths.

    Based on that figure, I think it's difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%. Maybe it really is closer to the 1% that lots of people had earlier been casually assuming.

    I also think it conclusively demonstrates that the recent Santa Clara and LA infection estimates were just as ridiculous as lots of knowledgeable statisticians had argued.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can't see how they can continue to hold that position.

    But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.

    Still not a hoaxer, but definitely anti-Lockdown.

    I think some amount of the excess deaths are caused by the anxiety of the Fear and the Lockdown.

    Personally i can’t listen to the daily briefings by Newsom, Cuomo and Trump because i just get angry. And I’m not a particular high strung person. Also, listening to the various NPR shows (which i also have to ration on the same grounds) the hosts and reporters mention anxiety OFTEN. Sometimes in the stories, but also in the little interactions around the stories. I believe there is a huge amount of anxiety out there. It’s probably even higher among people who feel very personally at risk.

    Stress is not good for people, especially the frail elderly and people with heart trouble.

    I honestly have no idea how many, and I’d like trustworthy epidemiologists and geriatric medicine people to look into it and tell us.

    As soon as i opened that NYT article i wondered if they had Sweden in there. And, lo! There it is at the bottom of the list with no excess deaths beyond the reported Covid-19 deaths.
    From what i understand the fear is relatively low in Sweden.

    I don’t think it’s the whole story, but definitely part of it.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    About the anxiety: Well, it sure didn't help this homeless guy any (though that was a damn nice scooter for a homeless guy, I gotta say). I'm feeling it a lot in certain members of my family. For me, with more time off lately due to the Kung Flu's effect on business, it's been a really nice time. The weather has been great for pretty much the whole time since school's been out.

    The boy and I have been having 2 hour recesses from his ad-hoc learning program (adding/subtracting/multiplying/reducing fractions, geometry with ruler/protractor/compass, geography including interpolation and estimation, oh, and the silly school take-home stuff). We've been putt-putting at the park into solo cups sunk into the ground with a cheap China-made putter who's pot-metal head broke on a 3 foot putt(!), throwing frisbee, riding bikes/roller-blading with other non-freaked out families, and bowling with water bottles.

    I've been heading to the (outside of) the coffee shop most mornings to meet friends and yesterday there was a gaggle of 4 tanned college girls with shorts, people of all ages chatting about the Kung Flu and cars, another very cute-faced girl with a cat on a leash who was climbing trees anyway (the cat, I mean), and one pretty girl in her twenties who bummed me for a dollar, then gave me a hug, and sauntered off with her skirt blowing in the wind, no underwear at all (yes, that last deal was pretty unusual, not an everyday thing.) People with masks - 1 in 10. At the grocery store, it was more like 1 in 3.

    In the meantime, I hear about the hospital from a family member in the healthcare industry. More on this ...

    , @Hail

    I think some amount of the excess deaths are caused by the anxiety of the Fear and the Lockdown.
     
    This is no longer speculative but has been confirmed. In peak places, the surprising fact is that it's not "some" but "most."

    In the UK data, we see the same. Corona-negative deaths are a major portion of excess deaths, and of the corona-positive deaths, a large share are terminal patients who would have died anyway, or other cases. Only a small portion of excess deaths are definitely and unambiguously attributable to the flu-virus epidemic there whose cause of death is a respiratory disease. The reported UK corona-death total may have to be cut by as much as three or four to account for this.

  38. @Achmed E. Newman
    It's really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It's called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don't trust anything like this. It's fudge factors all the way down.

    Now, I'll get all anecdotal on your asses now to just demonstrate how much trouble this panic has been causing. Some homeless guy with his (pretty-nice, blue) scooter was sitting next to a church in our neighborhood. Me and my 8 y/o boy (me on roller-blades on the road and he on a bike on the sidewalks) passed him one way, then 30 minutes later were on the other side of the street coming toward him. My son would have passed 5 or 6 ft from where he was hanging out.

    The guy started yelling loud as he could at me about us being too close, and "you can't take a kid around, you're tryin' to kill me, get away!" or some such stuff. I wasn't gonna take that and got on the sidewalk rolling toward him and telling him to shut the hell up. (We'd have been glad to go way around, but I'm not gonna take abuse like that.) He threatened to kick my ass, and I'm not at all a big guy, but I kept on coming.

    The guy got on his scooter, as I was I telling him to f-off and such. Then he turned around 75 yards away and came at me in a game of chicken, he on the scooter and me on rollerblades, passed with 1 foot of me (apparently forgetful of the R0 data), as I tried to grab a sleeve to dump his crazy ass onto the road.

    Then, I started rollerblading down the road after him in this neighborhood, let's call it "Crestview" or something, just for fun, and, see now here's the part you'd have liked, Steve, if I had been just a little bit quicker. I yelled "get out of Crestview" but without the "...Lebowski!" Opportunities like that don't come often.

    Yes, he was mentally ill, but all this hysteria had not helped that man one bit. Me neither.

    If I ever see a guy rollerblading, I’ll know it’s you and I’ll say hello.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    OK and I'll say hey, unless you appear to be about 60 y/o and you are riding a bright blue scooter loaded down with plastic grocery bags full of junk.
  39. @Coemgen
    I was thinking, as I read your comment, that how can one think of Tuscany without thinking of wine?

    Then, as I read on, I realized you had a TDS axe to grind.

    The bait-and-switch maneuver works much better when the bait is viable. Next time, mention the wine.

    Ugh, just because I do not think Trump is the messiah, does not mean I have TDS. You Trump groupies are so predictable. For the record, I think Trump is just a buffoon but that does not mean I like Democrats (or Republicans per se) or that I am a SJW.

    As to the wine, California has some good wine too. I am not a real wine connoisseur, so I am not going to rave about Italian wines. Blind tests show that most of the hype is BS anyway.

  40. @vhrm

    But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.
     
    Still not a hoaxer, but definitely anti-Lockdown.

    I think some amount of the excess deaths are caused by the anxiety of the Fear and the Lockdown.

    Personally i can't listen to the daily briefings by Newsom, Cuomo and Trump because i just get angry. And I'm not a particular high strung person. Also, listening to the various NPR shows (which i also have to ration on the same grounds) the hosts and reporters mention anxiety OFTEN. Sometimes in the stories, but also in the little interactions around the stories. I believe there is a huge amount of anxiety out there. It's probably even higher among people who feel very personally at risk.

    Stress is not good for people, especially the frail elderly and people with heart trouble.

    I honestly have no idea how many, and I'd like trustworthy epidemiologists and geriatric medicine people to look into it and tell us.

    As soon as i opened that NYT article i wondered if they had Sweden in there. And, lo! There it is at the bottom of the list with no excess deaths beyond the reported Covid-19 deaths.
    From what i understand the fear is relatively low in Sweden.

    I don't think it's the whole story, but definitely part of it.

    About the anxiety: Well, it sure didn’t help this homeless guy any (though that was a damn nice scooter for a homeless guy, I gotta say). I’m feeling it a lot in certain members of my family. For me, with more time off lately due to the Kung Flu’s effect on business, it’s been a really nice time. The weather has been great for pretty much the whole time since school’s been out.

    The boy and I have been having 2 hour recesses from his ad-hoc learning program (adding/subtracting/multiplying/reducing fractions, geometry with ruler/protractor/compass, geography including interpolation and estimation, oh, and the silly school take-home stuff). We’ve been putt-putting at the park into solo cups sunk into the ground with a cheap China-made putter who’s pot-metal head broke on a 3 foot putt(!), throwing frisbee, riding bikes/roller-blading with other non-freaked out families, and bowling with water bottles.

    I’ve been heading to the (outside of) the coffee shop most mornings to meet friends and yesterday there was a gaggle of 4 tanned college girls with shorts, people of all ages chatting about the Kung Flu and cars, another very cute-faced girl with a cat on a leash who was climbing trees anyway (the cat, I mean), and one pretty girl in her twenties who bummed me for a dollar, then gave me a hug, and sauntered off with her skirt blowing in the wind, no underwear at all (yes, that last deal was pretty unusual, not an everyday thing.) People with masks – 1 in 10. At the grocery store, it was more like 1 in 3.

    In the meantime, I hear about the hospital from a family member in the healthcare industry. More on this …

    • LOL: hhsiii
    • Replies: @prosa123
    one pretty girl in her twenties who bummed me for a dollar, then gave me a hug, and sauntered off with her skirt blowing in the wind, no underwear at all

    Was your wallet still there?
  41. @Ron Unz
    Well, much closer to home there were some very grim numbers about NYC in this morning's NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Given the possibilities of Coronavirus deaths being both over-estimated and under-estimated, they just worked out the "excess deaths" for a number of countries and cities.

    In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. So in little more than one month, probably something like 0.2% of the entire population died from the Coronavirus. That's a pretty big number, especially since I doubt that more than a fraction of the local population had been infected during the relevant window for those deaths.

    Based on that figure, I think it's difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%. Maybe it really is closer to the 1% that lots of people had earlier been casually assuming.

    I also think it conclusively demonstrates that the recent Santa Clara and LA infection estimates were just as ridiculous as lots of knowledgeable statisticians had argued.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can't see how they can continue to hold that position.

    “ In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. ”

    The Times is only comparing this year to the previous ten years in NY. For other countries the comparison they use is even fewer years. In other words, meaningless.

    It’s the same scam the global warmers use. Pick your start and end point carefully and you can make a trend go any way you like.

  42. @Aeronerauk
    Do people really regard Italians as unhealthy? My initial thought was that the Italians kiss and hug acquaintances far more than the average culture and that was responsible. Not that they were slovenly or ate crap.

    They all smoke.

    I don’t care what the official numbers say, they all smoke. The streets of Rome are a giant ashtray.

    • Replies: @Travis
    Tobacco seems to protect users from coronavirus.

    Studies in France and China suggest a substance in tobacco – possibly nicotine – may be stopping patients who smoke from catching Covid-19. Clinical trials of nicotine patches are awaiting the approval of the country’s health authorities.

    The renowned French neurobiologist Jean-Pierre Changeux, who reviewed the study, suggested the nicotine might stop the virus from reaching cells in the body preventing its spread. Nicotine may also lessen the overreaction of the body’s immune system that has been found in the most severe cases of Covid-19 infection. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

    https://www.qeios.com/read/article/581
    This preliminary analysis does not support the argument that current smoking is a risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19. Instead, these consistent observations, which are further emphasized by the low prevalence of current smoking among COVID-19 patients in the US (1.3%), raises the hypothesis that nicotine may have beneficial effects on COVID-19.
  43. @Achmed E. Newman
    It's really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It's called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don't trust anything like this. It's fudge factors all the way down.

    Now, I'll get all anecdotal on your asses now to just demonstrate how much trouble this panic has been causing. Some homeless guy with his (pretty-nice, blue) scooter was sitting next to a church in our neighborhood. Me and my 8 y/o boy (me on roller-blades on the road and he on a bike on the sidewalks) passed him one way, then 30 minutes later were on the other side of the street coming toward him. My son would have passed 5 or 6 ft from where he was hanging out.

    The guy started yelling loud as he could at me about us being too close, and "you can't take a kid around, you're tryin' to kill me, get away!" or some such stuff. I wasn't gonna take that and got on the sidewalk rolling toward him and telling him to shut the hell up. (We'd have been glad to go way around, but I'm not gonna take abuse like that.) He threatened to kick my ass, and I'm not at all a big guy, but I kept on coming.

    The guy got on his scooter, as I was I telling him to f-off and such. Then he turned around 75 yards away and came at me in a game of chicken, he on the scooter and me on rollerblades, passed with 1 foot of me (apparently forgetful of the R0 data), as I tried to grab a sleeve to dump his crazy ass onto the road.

    Then, I started rollerblading down the road after him in this neighborhood, let's call it "Crestview" or something, just for fun, and, see now here's the part you'd have liked, Steve, if I had been just a little bit quicker. I yelled "get out of Crestview" but without the "...Lebowski!" Opportunities like that don't come often.

    Yes, he was mentally ill, but all this hysteria had not helped that man one bit. Me neither.

    In a sea of murky data, the one thing that is crystal clear is that the virus is only a real threat to sickly people over 60 years old. For healthy, working age people under 60 it is barely worse than the flu. Yet, the Lock-Down Nazis insist that the only responsible policy is to prohibit these barely-at-risk under-60 workers from leaving their homes to make a living.

    Meanwhile, NO MEASURES ARE BEING TAKEN TO PROTECT THE ACTUALLY AT-RISK OLD PEOPLE!!

    Unbelievably, in New York they are actually REQUIRING nursing homes to take in infected patients. https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-nursing-homes-1.43491608 . They might as well be selling them infected blankets. It’s no wonder New York’s death toll is the big outlier in the U.S.

    Here’s a thought experiment: What would happen if a new virus emerged that only attacked babies? Would we shut down the whole economy in the hope that that would slow the rate at which babies got infected. Of course not. We would directly protect the babies themselves and their caregivers from the virus.

    • Agree: Travis, Polynikes, Hail, Mehen
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    I agree absolutely, Mr. Toad. I don't know if everyone reading knows that nursing homes cost, whether directly from the residents/family or insurance, in the neighborhood of $5000 monthly! They've gotta be cash-freaking-cows, because there is usually only 1 nurse on a floor of 25 or more people or maybe 1 in the facility, and people, maybe one per 5 residents, making $12-15/hour.

    You'd think they would have gotten on the ball on their own after the deaths in Washington State, but there are mostly black and foreign workers who mostly just "do their jobs", and nobody gives enough of a damn to come up with a serious program. We have an older close relative who lives at home a half-day's drive away. We would have visited with this extra free time and lack of mandatory school days but figured it would just plain be a bad risk.

    I just ran into (not literally) a new fence around the 1/4 mile track and big grass area inside it to prevent anyone from, gasp!, throwing the frisbee or using stomp rockets in there - Governor's orders! Imbeciles! Yes, we could have climbed it, but a cop would have likely been by within 10 minutes ... not sure how he'd get in, come to think of it ...
  44. … the thing is, the nurses are being assigned COVID-one-niner patients, even though those aren’t the cases usually on their floor. On another floor there are a number of cases, plus in the ICU. The problem is that the nurses really aren’t provided the PPE other than fitted masks. They are worried about even going in the rooms, and the doctors won’t show up at all and are doing everything on the phone. These patients’ rooms are getting really messy, as neither nurses nor techs want to go in there much. Without family members either, it’s VERY depressing for them. Time goes at 1/10 speed for a patient in a hospital room.

    In the meantime, the hospitals in NY City are offering $7,000 per week for RNs for 3 12-hour shifts per week. Housing is not paid for but arranged (yeah, I know it can be a decent amount), but food and transportation are covered. Some of the nurses are just hoping to get laid off (quitting looks bad to HR), so that they can go to NYC and make a killing. Another section of the hospital will be recalling nurses that have been furloughed, as they are planning on resuming regular surgeries and all that.

    All of us know that this is not the Black Plague, but the 2-month-long Infotainment Panic-Fest, playing on all channels, has got them acting like it is.

  45. This is more about social control than anything else. Less carbon foot print, get rid of the virus drenched paper money, more rules and regulations, mandatory vaccines, neighbors snitching on neighbors, every one of the unwashed branded and tracked like livestock. To the elite, what’s not to like?

    Who still believes the concentrated, incestuously owned, intel agency directed US press about anything? From Remember the Main… to JFK, September 11th to Syria, Wikileaks, the establishment press are and forever will be scoundrels.. Why is this any different?

  46. @danand

    “Bergamo is so hilly that a 52 degree funicular was installed in 1887 to connect the Lower City to the Upper City.”
     
    No wonder they were hard hit, they’re packed in those cars/trains like sardines:

    https://youtu.be/G7opUktJ-aY

    (If you bother to watch, use the 2X speed option; won’t diminish the view.)

    Trieste has a more spacious answer. For the line leading uphill to (almost) Slovenia, they use a full-sized tram, which is taken up and down the steep stretches by a cable tractor serving as a tugboat of sorts.

    An accident shut it down for repairs in 2016, and ironically it was due to reopen next month. Has it?

    • Replies: @utu
    "The tramway is currently out of use, following an accident in August 2016, with a replacement bus service operating. Reopening of the line has been postponed until February or March 2020, a deadline set by Trieste city council." -wiki
  47. @Ron Unz
    Well, much closer to home there were some very grim numbers about NYC in this morning's NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Given the possibilities of Coronavirus deaths being both over-estimated and under-estimated, they just worked out the "excess deaths" for a number of countries and cities.

    In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. So in little more than one month, probably something like 0.2% of the entire population died from the Coronavirus. That's a pretty big number, especially since I doubt that more than a fraction of the local population had been infected during the relevant window for those deaths.

    Based on that figure, I think it's difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%. Maybe it really is closer to the 1% that lots of people had earlier been casually assuming.

    I also think it conclusively demonstrates that the recent Santa Clara and LA infection estimates were just as ridiculous as lots of knowledgeable statisticians had argued.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can't see how they can continue to hold that position.

    The IFR will depend on the demographics of the area. In New York State the IFR may reach 1% while in California it could be .6%

    NY is 18% Black, 12% Puerto Rican / Dominican and 7% Asian. while CA is 6% Black, 31% Mexican and 14% Asian . The average age in New York is 40 versus just 36 in California.

    So we would expect the Fatality rate to be lower in sunny California than cold New York based on the different population density and different demographics….

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    Btw, it's been especially cold in NY this April. Saw snowflakes falling this AM just north of Epicentral. Normal high is 65 degrees, and we barely hit 40 today. It hasn't helped encourage people to go out in the vitamin-D-enhancing sunlight that also kills viruses with UV.

    I wonder if the massive drop in burning fossil fuels that has driven oil to <$20 a barrel has also caused a chill in the weather? Just another reason to love the shutdown.
  48. Great paper. Very well written. Great graphs where you can clearly see the excess deaths. They used some fancy schmancy stuff to estimate the baseline with “the counterfactual analysis” Conditional Mean with a Gaussian process (CGP) and Synthetic Control Method (SCM), which however, when you look at Figure 1, are negligibly different from the average of historical record that everybody who has never heard of the counterfactual analysis would have used. Anyway, they got good estimates of age dependent PFR which still can be an underestimate because they can’t account for the fatalities that did not occur because of the lockdown like car accidents that would push the baseline lower. So they “assume that this effect is negligible” as any scientist would have done if he couldn’t estimate the damn thing while being pressed by the publication deadline.

    But when they go from PFR to IFR they are limited by data quality they have. They write:

    To estimate the IFR from the PFR, we need the infection ratio (IR) of the population. Here we have used the Test Positivity Rate (TPR), the fraction of positive to total tests, as the fraction of infected population. Due to the criterion of primarily testing people with symptoms, this should be an upper bound on the IR during the first few weeks of infection, hence making this IFR a lower bound. Further, we assume that this ratio is age independent in every region5. The age averaged lower bounds on IFR are shown in Table 1, reaching a 0.84% IFR lower bound in Lombardia.

    If TPR is na upper bound then IFR=PFR/TPR obviously is a lower count but I have a problem seeing that the TPR from “the first few weeks of infection” is necessarily the upper bound. So, I would not take their claims of estimating lower bounds of IFR as definitive.

    Then they take the IFR from Diamond Princess for age over 70 and apply it to Lombardy PFR data for age over 70 and calculate the infection rate IR=PFR/IFR. Then under the assumption of age-independent IR they derive IFR=PFR/IR for all the other age-groups. This is a value added products, not a circular thinking even if it appears so, though it hinges entirely on a single number derived from Diamond Princess data.

    • Replies: @utu
    Age depended IFR values from "Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis", Modi et al.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2.full.pdf

    https://i.ibb.co/QHbnQQ5/Table1.png

    Population IFR for populations with different age demographics can be calculated from this table.

  49. In a sea of murky data, the one thing that is crystal clear is that the virus is only a real threat to sickly people over 60 years old.

    Better they die and decrease the surplus population …

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    If this WAS a deep state virus, call that these are the guys happily sucking up the 1$trillion in "defense" and "intelligence" money we spend every year. Not that the US was defended or prepared for something that isn't even really alive to attack it. Meanwhile, fixed expenditures on Social Security and Medicare continue to grow.

    At some point, and that date has been moved up by the massive debt taken on in the past month, the Federal Government is going to have to square the circle between these four big items: interest over $1T, Social Security .9T, Medicare .7T, and Deep State .9T (.1T going for interest on past military debt counted in that category). The DS might have money and power, but not votes; and granny is more interested in collecting her SS than in ruling the world.

    So a virus that selectively killed elderly and sick people likely to absorb public dollars would be useful to them.
  50. @Hypnotoad666
    In a sea of murky data, the one thing that is crystal clear is that the virus is only a real threat to sickly people over 60 years old. For healthy, working age people under 60 it is barely worse than the flu. Yet, the Lock-Down Nazis insist that the only responsible policy is to prohibit these barely-at-risk under-60 workers from leaving their homes to make a living.

    Meanwhile, NO MEASURES ARE BEING TAKEN TO PROTECT THE ACTUALLY AT-RISK OLD PEOPLE!!

    Unbelievably, in New York they are actually REQUIRING nursing homes to take in infected patients. https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-nursing-homes-1.43491608 . They might as well be selling them infected blankets. It's no wonder New York's death toll is the big outlier in the U.S.

    Here's a thought experiment: What would happen if a new virus emerged that only attacked babies? Would we shut down the whole economy in the hope that that would slow the rate at which babies got infected. Of course not. We would directly protect the babies themselves and their caregivers from the virus.

    I agree absolutely, Mr. Toad. I don’t know if everyone reading knows that nursing homes cost, whether directly from the residents/family or insurance, in the neighborhood of $5000 monthly! They’ve gotta be cash-freaking-cows, because there is usually only 1 nurse on a floor of 25 or more people or maybe 1 in the facility, and people, maybe one per 5 residents, making $12-15/hour.

    You’d think they would have gotten on the ball on their own after the deaths in Washington State, but there are mostly black and foreign workers who mostly just “do their jobs”, and nobody gives enough of a damn to come up with a serious program. We have an older close relative who lives at home a half-day’s drive away. We would have visited with this extra free time and lack of mandatory school days but figured it would just plain be a bad risk.

    I just ran into (not literally) a new fence around the 1/4 mile track and big grass area inside it to prevent anyone from, gasp!, throwing the frisbee or using stomp rockets in there – Governor’s orders! Imbeciles! Yes, we could have climbed it, but a cop would have likely been by within 10 minutes … not sure how he’d get in, come to think of it …

  51. @Achmed E. Newman
    About the anxiety: Well, it sure didn't help this homeless guy any (though that was a damn nice scooter for a homeless guy, I gotta say). I'm feeling it a lot in certain members of my family. For me, with more time off lately due to the Kung Flu's effect on business, it's been a really nice time. The weather has been great for pretty much the whole time since school's been out.

    The boy and I have been having 2 hour recesses from his ad-hoc learning program (adding/subtracting/multiplying/reducing fractions, geometry with ruler/protractor/compass, geography including interpolation and estimation, oh, and the silly school take-home stuff). We've been putt-putting at the park into solo cups sunk into the ground with a cheap China-made putter who's pot-metal head broke on a 3 foot putt(!), throwing frisbee, riding bikes/roller-blading with other non-freaked out families, and bowling with water bottles.

    I've been heading to the (outside of) the coffee shop most mornings to meet friends and yesterday there was a gaggle of 4 tanned college girls with shorts, people of all ages chatting about the Kung Flu and cars, another very cute-faced girl with a cat on a leash who was climbing trees anyway (the cat, I mean), and one pretty girl in her twenties who bummed me for a dollar, then gave me a hug, and sauntered off with her skirt blowing in the wind, no underwear at all (yes, that last deal was pretty unusual, not an everyday thing.) People with masks - 1 in 10. At the grocery store, it was more like 1 in 3.

    In the meantime, I hear about the hospital from a family member in the healthcare industry. More on this ...

    one pretty girl in her twenties who bummed me for a dollar, then gave me a hug, and sauntered off with her skirt blowing in the wind, no underwear at all

    Was your wallet still there?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Was your wallet still there?
     
    Under where?

    Wow! Seriously, you just made me check. I haven't been spending anything, so really it could have been gone. Good point!
  52. @Reg Cæsar
    Trieste has a more spacious answer. For the line leading uphill to (almost) Slovenia, they use a full-sized tram, which is taken up and down the steep stretches by a cable tractor serving as a tugboat of sorts.

    An accident shut it down for repairs in 2016, and ironically it was due to reopen next month. Has it?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=82RlLD-anDo

    “The tramway is currently out of use, following an accident in August 2016, with a replacement bus service operating. Reopening of the line has been postponed until February or March 2020, a deadline set by Trieste city council.” -wiki

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The one funicular in downtown Los Angeles closes down for a decade or so at a time after each accident.
  53. @utu
    "The tramway is currently out of use, following an accident in August 2016, with a replacement bus service operating. Reopening of the line has been postponed until February or March 2020, a deadline set by Trieste city council." -wiki

    The one funicular in downtown Los Angeles closes down for a decade or so at a time after each accident.

  54. Anonymous[194] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ron Unz
    Well, much closer to home there were some very grim numbers about NYC in this morning's NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Given the possibilities of Coronavirus deaths being both over-estimated and under-estimated, they just worked out the "excess deaths" for a number of countries and cities.

    In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. So in little more than one month, probably something like 0.2% of the entire population died from the Coronavirus. That's a pretty big number, especially since I doubt that more than a fraction of the local population had been infected during the relevant window for those deaths.

    Based on that figure, I think it's difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%. Maybe it really is closer to the 1% that lots of people had earlier been casually assuming.

    I also think it conclusively demonstrates that the recent Santa Clara and LA infection estimates were just as ridiculous as lots of knowledgeable statisticians had argued.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can't see how they can continue to hold that position.

    Ron, I may be in the minority here but I agree with both yours and Steve’s positions on reducing Chinese Virus spread. A non-zero % will be living on debilitated lungs (or other body parts) for the rest of their lives, which I would think is worth avoiding too.

    From an anti-immigrationist perspective I really don’t get the push to downplay this. We are finally getting the sort of problem that the reaction and solution needed for reducing globalism and immigration dovetails with.

    And for higher risk influence like yourself and Steve, and a lot of older white voters, I’m not sure why we would want acceleration.

    I guess others MMV.

    • Replies: @Hail
    Anonymous[194]: Thanks for stating this. It must be said that in one sense, it is a rational position to take. To try to take advantage of a given situation to advance one's interests is rational.

    I wrote something on the case against this, against what I called "jockeying for political advantage on the coattails of Corona Hysteria." See also this comment:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/04/09/against-the-corona-panic-pt-ii-honor-the-truth-be-steadfast-defend-the-nation-say-no-to-jockeying-for-political-advantage-on-the-coattails-of-corona-hysteria/#comment-37032

    [...] [T]he case for why this kind of thinking is flawed[:]

    It’s dishonorable. It’s senselessly damaging. It hurts your own people. As I have described it elsewhere, it creates a huge constituency of people who declare, in unison, “All Power to the Government and to the Holy Media!”

    But, for many of us, the very foremost reason to be anti-CoronaPanic is: It’s not true. We now know that the Wuhan coronavirus is not a particularly dangerous flu virus; the Panic is now fairly calculable to be literally hundreds of times more damaging than the virus [...]
     
  55. Anon[304] • Disclaimer says:

    Air pollution may be a bigger problem than you think if it’s next to mountains. There’s godawful air pollution on the east side of the Rockies in northern Colorado, because the mountains create an inversion that just holds the pollution there and concentrates it, day after day. I’ve run into a lot of seniors in a retirement home in that area who just wheel around their oxygen with them and are always tubed up.

  56. @Intelligent Dasein

    It’s an interesting question and i haven’t seen it addressed at all, really.
     
    Actually, I and others have addressed that a lot. It's because exposure to the virus is already quite common and increasing case counts are solely a function of the number of tests performed, not of a spreading epidemic. Herd immunity is already here.

    we must be getting close to herd immunity in New York and New Jersey

    The NY metro area already has 23,000 CV deaths which indicates we had 3 million infected 4 weeks ago based on an IFR of 0.8%. If the number infected doubled over the last month we would have about 6 million infected today in the New York metro area, about 30% of the population.

    • Replies: @Hail

    The NY metro area already has 23,000 CV deaths
     
    How many deaths would the NYC metro area expect in normal circumstances in the past forty days? I think it's something like 20,000, roughly calculated.

    If the virus achieved, in March, the level of penetration in NYC that it appears to have achieved, a lot of normal-deaths would have been corona-positive at death. There is some big overlap between the categories "normal deaths" and "corona-positive deaths." The flu is having an impact, but the virus' direct impact is unclear, and looks to me to be unremarkable.

    Knut Wittkowski as of now (April 21) says this Wuhan flu strain's direct effect is comparable to the level of the 2009-10 Swine Flu strain.

  57. @Bernard
    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
    Personally speaking, aside from the occasional mask clad encounters at the market and various drive thru’s, I see almost no one. Yet every day I check my favorite Coronameter website and a thousand or more new infections are reported. It’s now been over a month that we’ve been under a virtual house arrest, so one would assume that any infections contracted prior to the quarantine would have surfaced by now. I would also assume that those counted as new infections are only those who are showing symptoms and therefore represent 10% or less of the actual total. By my math, what we’re doing is just postponing the inevitable.
    I say this as someone with a lot at risk. I see no other option than to open things back up and protect the vulnerable as best we can. Perhaps someone can explain to me why this isn’t such a good idea.

    I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.

    Well, I’m no expert on the subject, but is it really so surprising? The Coronavirus is extremely contagious, so without this lockdown it would be growing exponentially, with the number of infected doubling every three days or so. A solid lockdown stops that, but you still get some new infections for a while as things tail off.

    In terms of the R0 parameter, it’s supposedly something like 3 or 4 under ordinary conditions, but after China’s very strong lockdown, they reduced it to 0.3, which allowed them to almost entirely stamp out the disease in a couple of months. I doubt California’s lockdown is nearly as strong, but I’d hope we’ve reduced R0 to something like 0.4 or maybe 0.5. But given that the state has had 33K known infections (and probably 5-10x as many actual ones), you’ll still get lots of new infections for a while.

    An R0 of 0.5 isn’t wonderful…but it’s much better than an R0 of 3.5!

    • Replies: @Hail

    The Coronavirus is extremely contagious, so without this lockdown it would be growing exponentially, with the number of infected doubling every three days or so. A solid lockdown stops that
     
    The Robert Koch Institute (Germany) data, now out, is against this. As is the Swedish and Swiss data and others:
    .
    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/coronavirus-r0-in-germany-march-6-to-april-9.png
  58. @prosa123
    one pretty girl in her twenties who bummed me for a dollar, then gave me a hug, and sauntered off with her skirt blowing in the wind, no underwear at all

    Was your wallet still there?

    Was your wallet still there?

    Under where?

    Wow! Seriously, you just made me check. I haven’t been spending anything, so really it could have been gone. Good point!

  59. @Federalist
    If I ever see a guy rollerblading, I'll know it's you and I'll say hello.

    OK and I’ll say hey, unless you appear to be about 60 y/o and you are riding a bright blue scooter loaded down with plastic grocery bags full of junk.

  60. @CJ
    It's definitely looking like the estimates of millions of deaths were way high. Clearly this won't be a civilizational event like the Black Death. Nonetheless, proponents of the "It's just the flu, bro" argument might consider some current data points:

    74 doctors dead of Covid-19 in Italy:
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-italian-doctors-fatalities-reach-tragic-levels-as-they-fight-covid-1/

    119 NHS staff dead of Covid-19 in Britain:
    https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article

    NYPD coronavirus death total reaches 30:
    https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/nypd-coronavirus-death-total-reaches-30-departments-sick-rate-continues-to-fall.html

    Nearly 100 US transit workers have died of Covid-19, including 68 at the NYC MTA alone:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/us-bus-drivers-lack-life-saving-basic-protections-transit-worker-deaths-coronavirus

    There's lot more of this, easily searchable. Medscape has a list of over 400 deceased medical personnel from around the world at https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976#vp_15 . Police One maintains a list of LE Covid deaths at https://www.policeone.com/coronavirus-covid-19/articles/covid-19-law-enforcement-deaths-3ftkdPnVffq55iHU/ .

    This data does not seem consistent with a bad flu season.

    What’s the basis for comparison?

    If a cop or EMT or ICU nurse dies of the ‘flu during ‘flu season, does it make the Globe and Mail? I don’t read regular news much, but I would be really surprised if that was the case.

  61. @Bernard
    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
    Personally speaking, aside from the occasional mask clad encounters at the market and various drive thru’s, I see almost no one. Yet every day I check my favorite Coronameter website and a thousand or more new infections are reported. It’s now been over a month that we’ve been under a virtual house arrest, so one would assume that any infections contracted prior to the quarantine would have surfaced by now. I would also assume that those counted as new infections are only those who are showing symptoms and therefore represent 10% or less of the actual total. By my math, what we’re doing is just postponing the inevitable.
    I say this as someone with a lot at risk. I see no other option than to open things back up and protect the vulnerable as best we can. Perhaps someone can explain to me why this isn’t such a good idea.

    I am not enlightened and think others have advanced plausible reasons. I am throwing possible latency of Covid virus. Since original infection is slowly being found out as being more widespread and older than thought (Santa Clara report), it is possible some initial infections did not incubate promptly but remained dormant. They may be activating in a delayed response mode. As far as I know, Covid virus has not been proven to not go through dormant/active states like some other viruses.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_latency

  62. Hail says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
     
    Well, I'm no expert on the subject, but is it really so surprising? The Coronavirus is extremely contagious, so without this lockdown it would be growing exponentially, with the number of infected doubling every three days or so. A solid lockdown stops that, but you still get some new infections for a while as things tail off.

    In terms of the R0 parameter, it's supposedly something like 3 or 4 under ordinary conditions, but after China's very strong lockdown, they reduced it to 0.3, which allowed them to almost entirely stamp out the disease in a couple of months. I doubt California's lockdown is nearly as strong, but I'd hope we've reduced R0 to something like 0.4 or maybe 0.5. But given that the state has had 33K known infections (and probably 5-10x as many actual ones), you'll still get lots of new infections for a while.

    An R0 of 0.5 isn't wonderful...but it's much better than an R0 of 3.5!

    The Coronavirus is extremely contagious, so without this lockdown it would be growing exponentially, with the number of infected doubling every three days or so. A solid lockdown stops that

    The Robert Koch Institute (Germany) data, now out, is against this. As is the Swedish and Swiss data and others:
    .

    • Thanks: TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    It's almost as if human beings, who make decisions about how to live their lives, had made a bunch of risk-mitigation decisions all by their own self, while The Overlords were busy holding their dicks.

    The Overlords will still claim the credit though - and every major media outlet will amplify the message.

    Outside the US there will be media unanimity on the scale (infinite) of the debt that the peons owe The Overlords.

    Inside the US it will be a bit more nuanced: CNN will say that the credit only belongs to Overlords who once contradicted Trump; Fox will say the credit belongs to Trump and Jared Kushner.
    , @J A A
    If you look at the google community mobility report for Germany here:
    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-11_DE_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

    it suggests a correlation between the decline in the rate of transmission and the decline in the mobility of people in Germany. While lockdown was ordered on March 23, German authorities were already suggesting it before. For example, Merkel had an address to the nation on March 18 where she said Germans should stay at home.

    I recognize this is just a correlation between two sets of data and might not be significant, but it might indicate the effectiveness of staying at home.

  63. Hail says: • Website
    @Travis
    we must be getting close to herd immunity in New York and New Jersey

    The NY metro area already has 23,000 CV deaths which indicates we had 3 million infected 4 weeks ago based on an IFR of 0.8%. If the number infected doubled over the last month we would have about 6 million infected today in the New York metro area, about 30% of the population.

    The NY metro area already has 23,000 CV deaths

    How many deaths would the NYC metro area expect in normal circumstances in the past forty days? I think it’s something like 20,000, roughly calculated.

    If the virus achieved, in March, the level of penetration in NYC that it appears to have achieved, a lot of normal-deaths would have been corona-positive at death. There is some big overlap between the categories “normal deaths” and “corona-positive deaths.” The flu is having an impact, but the virus’ direct impact is unclear, and looks to me to be unremarkable.

    Knut Wittkowski as of now (April 21) says this Wuhan flu strain’s direct effect is comparable to the level of the 2009-10 Swine Flu strain.

    • Replies: @The one
    Not even as bad as the infamous 2018 flu https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
  64. Here’s one thing I wanted to mention. I’ve read a lot of speculation about, “Well, of course old Italians are dying like flies. Everybody knows Italians are lazy, fat from eating all that pasta, and the industrial cities like Turin have terrible air pollution. (In contrast, I am, physically and morally, in perfect shape, so because, unlike Italians, I deserve to live forever, I can never die.)”

    Really? Because I’ve been paying pretty close attention to this the entire time, and I haven’t noticed anybody around here adopting this flippant and condescending attitude. On the other hand, Ron Unz seems to have no problem displaying open contempt for his readers, and with statements like the above, you appear to be heading in that direction as well.

    Speaking for myself and a few of the other prominent anti-lockdowners, we do not think we’re either physically or morally perfect. When somebody else gets sick or dies, I don’t go looking for reasons to think myself superior to them. I long ago grokked the fact that all men are sinners and all men are mortal, so the physical evils of this life are not something that in and of themselves require a casuistic explanation. However, I also understand the impulse to seek for justificatory narratives and patterns. People are always desperate to maintain their own sense of security, and while such impulses are somewhat egotistical and childish, they are not the worst thing in the human makeup. It’s a fear that needs to mastered, but then again so is the desire to keep the planet wrapped up in a face mask while you go off on some quixotic crusade for more Holy Data.

    I have no idea what exactly happened in Bergamo, but my guess would be that they crammed a bunch of old folks together into nursing homes and then took very shoddy care of them

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman, Mehen
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Really? Because I’ve been paying pretty close attention to this the entire time, and I haven’t noticed anybody around here adopting this flippant and condescending attitude. On the other hand, Ron Unz seems to have no problem displaying open contempt for his readers, and with statements like the above, you appear to be heading in that direction as well.

    There is obviously a bifurcation in the readership atm other than the usual Jew/goy divide, and surprisingly this one has more heat.

    The attitude Steve refers to is kind of implied with what is happening in Italy and New York, no? A lot of older folks are dying, way more than a bad flu, and that is in spite of lockdowns. Never seen a flu lockdown in my life before. Apparently nursing homes can shut down for flu, but that is the extent of it AFAIK. Anyway, this song seems apropos.

    https://youtu.be/QNvKo7Bww-s

    If the "Just the flu, brah" crowd have that amount of respect for the lives of Unz and Steve who are nearing their 60s... I can't really blame either for being a little sloppy with the characterizations IMO.

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?
  65. @Bernard
    Can some of the more enlightened commenters answer this for me please? I’m here in Los Angeles, not far from where Steve resides and I can’t figure out why the newly infected numbers seem to persist.
    Personally speaking, aside from the occasional mask clad encounters at the market and various drive thru’s, I see almost no one. Yet every day I check my favorite Coronameter website and a thousand or more new infections are reported. It’s now been over a month that we’ve been under a virtual house arrest, so one would assume that any infections contracted prior to the quarantine would have surfaced by now. I would also assume that those counted as new infections are only those who are showing symptoms and therefore represent 10% or less of the actual total. By my math, what we’re doing is just postponing the inevitable.
    I say this as someone with a lot at risk. I see no other option than to open things back up and protect the vulnerable as best we can. Perhaps someone can explain to me why this isn’t such a good idea.

    If it is the case that the virus is so infectious that despite these measures, it continues to spread, is there any other option other than to let it rip?
    I don’t think we can postpone the inevitable long enough without an economic collapse while we wait on a cure or vaccine.

  66. anonymous[227] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu
    OT: Labradoodle breeder in charge of the coronavirus task force
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8247067/HHS-chief-Azar-aide-former-dog-breeder-steer-pandemic-task-force.html

    We remember "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job." Bush nominated Brown in January 2003 for the directorship of FEMA. Brown was sworn into his position on April 15, 2003

    "Before joining FEMA, Brown was the Judges and Stewards Commissioner for the International Arabian Horse Association from 1989-2001." - Wiki

    For christ’s sake, did it have to be labradoodles? Couldn’t he have bred horses, or even normal dogs? Labradoodles are a crime against nature.

  67. @Hail

    The NY metro area already has 23,000 CV deaths
     
    How many deaths would the NYC metro area expect in normal circumstances in the past forty days? I think it's something like 20,000, roughly calculated.

    If the virus achieved, in March, the level of penetration in NYC that it appears to have achieved, a lot of normal-deaths would have been corona-positive at death. There is some big overlap between the categories "normal deaths" and "corona-positive deaths." The flu is having an impact, but the virus' direct impact is unclear, and looks to me to be unremarkable.

    Knut Wittkowski as of now (April 21) says this Wuhan flu strain's direct effect is comparable to the level of the 2009-10 Swine Flu strain.

    Not even as bad as the infamous 2018 flu https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    • Replies: @Hail

    the infamous 2018 flu
     
    It's worth saying that your use of the word "infamous" here is, I am 99% sure, ironic.

    No one cared about the 2017-18 flu spike.

    One or more bad flu strains were circulating at the time, but none were "named," (Wuhan Coronavirus! COVID19!), or at least the names were known only to specialists. A determined person might be able to find the technical names of the 2017-18 flu strains, somewhere in dense academic journal articles, if he wants. But really no one cared.

    By all indications we now have, the 2017-18 peak flu event(s) packed about as much of a 'hit' as the 2019-20 season, which is now concluding.

    In 2017-18, not only did/does no one 'care,' but few even knew. You can dig through archives and find local news stories about it, but generally speaking it's safe to say the fact that flu season was bad was not on anyone's radar.

    As the commenter prime noticer wrote:


    in the past, this would come and go like other previous pathogens and you might not even hear about it, or you’d see a 1 minute segment on the evening news one time, and that would be it. you wouldn’t know anybody who died from it and would forget it happened a few years later. because that’s about the scope of this thing.
     
  68. The paper is an interesting exercise – and thankfully people are finally setting up their experiments so that the screamingly-obvious difference in dynamics across age groups is (partly) accounted for.

    It’s also a nice design to look at the 3-month (Jan-Apr) window.

    One issue though, is that the ‘deaths-with‘ issue musses things up.

    A bunch of deaths that might have ordinarily happened over the next few months, are being ‘brought forward’ as SARS-nCoV2 gives sickly seniors a nudge into ‘the undiscovered country‘.

    This is a thing that will only be deducible as the rest of the year unfolds – if this hypothesis is correct (and it is), then there will be ‘negative excess deaths’ over the next several months because some of the sick, elderly people whose time it would have been in May-Dec 2020, have already had their tickets clipped.

    This is a plausible (in fact the most plausible) ‘counterfactual’ that is not modelled. In fairness, it can’t be investigated at all until at least August – but it’s a lay-down misère.

    .

    The other thing that’s odd is that their model significantly over-predicts deaths (by a factor of 2 higher than the official number) at the end of the pseudo-forecast period (April 18th). It’s not clear why this ought to inspire confidence – especially since the write-up says that this means that deaths are ‘under-reported’ (and that reported deaths will ‘catch up’ with their “true ” estimates).

    Weird – here was me who spent the last 25 years thinking that the reason to split the sample was to be able test the fit in the second half. Turns out you do it in order to make up a story about why the fit was shit.

    .

    In any case – the takeaway is in line with what people have known for weeks now – and which John Ioannides has started to state in a much less hedged way…

    It’s the ‘flu, bro. Especially if you’re under 50 or have no underlying chronic illness.

  69. @Hail

    The Coronavirus is extremely contagious, so without this lockdown it would be growing exponentially, with the number of infected doubling every three days or so. A solid lockdown stops that
     
    The Robert Koch Institute (Germany) data, now out, is against this. As is the Swedish and Swiss data and others:
    .
    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/coronavirus-r0-in-germany-march-6-to-april-9.png

    It’s almost as if human beings, who make decisions about how to live their lives, had made a bunch of risk-mitigation decisions all by their own self, while The Overlords were busy holding their dicks.

    The Overlords will still claim the credit though – and every major media outlet will amplify the message.

    Outside the US there will be media unanimity on the scale (infinite) of the debt that the peons owe The Overlords.

    Inside the US it will be a bit more nuanced: CNN will say that the credit only belongs to Overlords who once contradicted Trump; Fox will say the credit belongs to Trump and Jared Kushner.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Hail
    Your political assessment is exactly on the mark; those are exactly the competing narratives that will exist by late May and June and beyond.

    ______________

    A comment on what mechanism drove down the R0:


    It’s almost as if human beings, who make decisions about how to live their lives, had made a bunch of risk-mitigation decisions all by their own self,
     
    This must be partly it.

    Something else the experts have been saying is that the epidemic may have already been peaking and declining, on its own in many/most places, following the same epidemic cycle that all other flu viruses follow. The political overreactions were reacting to the majorly lagging indicator of virus-positive deaths, and to the less-delayed-but-still-lagging indicator of confirmed-new-positives. This would be kind of like the US pouring a huge portion of GDP into a major naval buildup at Pearl Harbor in 1946, in case of Japanese attack.

    (The feeling that the lockdowns were probably not needed for public healt given early data of the progress of the epidemic at the time, now confirmed by the R0 calculations such as the Robert Koch Institute's, was the basis for the many experts arguing by late March and early April against the lockdowns, to the extent they were brave enough to.)

    The natural flu-virus-cycle always looks something like that RKI graph. Throw a dart at a calendar. Whatever date you hit, odds are that some virus in your region is doing exactly what is seen in the RKI's calculated Wuhan Coronavirus R-Naught in Germany graph, recently released. Some virus of some kind will be following that arc. Emerging, rising, peaking, declining. All unbeknownst to us, all emerging and declining for one reason or another, a series of superspreading events, weather, whatever. Most are very minor, some moderately more serious and trigger "peak flu events" which become visible in total-mortality data, usually in December, January, or February but spikes in March are not surprising.

    All flu viruses do this. This is what led Knut Wittkowski to recently say, “As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu.” Most of us don't bother paying attention to such things (why would we?) but specialists know the pattern here.

    While the 'lockdown' is shown in the RKI's R-Naught calculation (graph above) to have been unnecessary, whatever exactly we attribute the decline to, there are still lessons: The temporary restriction on large events may have been beneficial. At least chronologically, it probably predates by the peak: The RKI has 95% confidence that the R0 peak in Germany hit between 12:01am March 9 and 11:59pm March 11. Current Health Minister, lifetime politician, and 2020s-, 2030s-, or 2040s-era Chancellor-wannabe Jens Spahn called for the ban on large events with over 1,000 people on the afternoon of March 8, effective the next day, so the order predates the peak but contributing causality is debatable.

    The problem with even the reasonable large-event-ban order, is that, in retrospect in this case, even that kind of order was probably a contributing factor to the international Panic (the CoronaPanic), and, to that extent, even it may have been a net negative. As I see it, one must analyze this thing in terms of both calculations like the R-Naught and social-political factors that contributed to the vortex of Panic that have caused so much unnecessary damage.

    The unquestionably beneficial measure during the upward-arc of this epidemic would have been: Measures to quietly protect the vulnerable by no later than the first week of March.

  70. Anonymous[194] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Here’s one thing I wanted to mention. I’ve read a lot of speculation about, “Well, of course old Italians are dying like flies. Everybody knows Italians are lazy, fat from eating all that pasta, and the industrial cities like Turin have terrible air pollution. (In contrast, I am, physically and morally, in perfect shape, so because, unlike Italians, I deserve to live forever, I can never die.)”
     
    Really? Because I've been paying pretty close attention to this the entire time, and I haven't noticed anybody around here adopting this flippant and condescending attitude. On the other hand, Ron Unz seems to have no problem displaying open contempt for his readers, and with statements like the above, you appear to be heading in that direction as well.

    Speaking for myself and a few of the other prominent anti-lockdowners, we do not think we're either physically or morally perfect. When somebody else gets sick or dies, I don't go looking for reasons to think myself superior to them. I long ago grokked the fact that all men are sinners and all men are mortal, so the physical evils of this life are not something that in and of themselves require a casuistic explanation. However, I also understand the impulse to seek for justificatory narratives and patterns. People are always desperate to maintain their own sense of security, and while such impulses are somewhat egotistical and childish, they are not the worst thing in the human makeup. It's a fear that needs to mastered, but then again so is the desire to keep the planet wrapped up in a face mask while you go off on some quixotic crusade for more Holy Data.

    I have no idea what exactly happened in Bergamo, but my guess would be that they crammed a bunch of old folks together into nursing homes and then took very shoddy care of them

    Really? Because I’ve been paying pretty close attention to this the entire time, and I haven’t noticed anybody around here adopting this flippant and condescending attitude. On the other hand, Ron Unz seems to have no problem displaying open contempt for his readers, and with statements like the above, you appear to be heading in that direction as well.

    There is obviously a bifurcation in the readership atm other than the usual Jew/goy divide, and surprisingly this one has more heat.

    The attitude Steve refers to is kind of implied with what is happening in Italy and New York, no? A lot of older folks are dying, way more than a bad flu, and that is in spite of lockdowns. Never seen a flu lockdown in my life before. Apparently nursing homes can shut down for flu, but that is the extent of it AFAIK. Anyway, this song seems apropos.

    If the “Just the flu, brah” crowd have that amount of respect for the lives of Unz and Steve who are nearing their 60s… I can’t really blame either for being a little sloppy with the characterizations IMO.

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?
     
    Don't be glib. 26 million people in America alone have lost their jobs and their livelihoods. They have children to feed and bills to pay. Right now they're sitting around under a sentence of arbitrary and indefinite house arrest and wondering what the hell is going to happen to them. Meat processing facilities have shut down and shortages are not far off. Divorce, suicide, domestic violence, and abortions are all increasing.

    If you think this is about "wearing a mask for a while," I have nothing else to say to you.
    , @MB
    Locking down the local rest homes is standard around here if anybody gets sick in flu season.
    Last time if I remember correctly was 2 years ago.
    At one of the three, 110 were tested, 15 infected, 2 deaths, but already on hospice, the rest recovered.
    Patients can now walk the halls, sidewalk outside or sit on the sundeck, tho previously restricted to their apartment. Meals are brought up 3 times a day instead of served in downstairs cafeteria.
  71. @prosa123
    In the UK it has always been a very common thing for residents in old folk’s homes to have signed ‘Do Not Resuscitate’ forms. It is not uncommon for those being looked after in their own houses to have chosen DNR. They don’t want to go to hospital, and I dare say the hospitals don’t want them.

    DNR orders and other advance directives are quite common in the US too, however hospitals and other health care providers frequently ignore them. What happens way too often is that an elderly person is in the hospital, receiving pallative care only, when a family member who generally hasn't been involved in the patient's life very much - the "Daughter from California" - shows up hootin' and hollerin' and demands that the hospital Do Everything. When this happens, hospital staff *always* complies with what the Daughter from California demands and will ignore the patient's advance directive. Almost invariably this drags out the death process at exhorbitant cost.

    The danger of having medical insurance! Daughter from Cali with no financial skin in the game must be why the hospitals like to call them “Respect Forms”. I have been told by someone who works in the field in Britain that not infrequently it is the next of kin who make the decision for DNR to be marked in the elderly and infirm person’s medical records. Of late, the elderly who are being sent to old folks homes from hospital, and those in care homes who already have long standing DNR are increasingly being asked to sign that if they get coronavirus they do not want to go to hospital.

    At least half of the COVID-19 deaths are among the residents of care homes, or people in their own house who are being looked after by social services. The owners of the institutions have little incentive to see their business model take a huge hit in an epidemic, and that is why the main complaints about the infirm being asked to sign these new COVID-19 palliative care only (which often means an overdose of opium to finish off those in distress) is coming from the management/ owners of old folks homes.

    There was never much chance of hospitals being overwhelmed by COVID-19 because almost all of those it kills are in a demographic that there are procedures in place for denying treatment to already. Indeed, one might say flattening the curve of hospital admissions is inherent in everyday modern medicine, and were it not for the fact that there are people making a profit out of warehousing the elderly for a few years at the end of their lives, it would be accepted as absolutely necessary to speed the end in more cases. There are people with religious objection, but I honestly think many don’t realise they can exit comfortably and with a little dignity. The few people at the end of their lives I have talked to were worried about being kept alive in hospital too long.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Few seem enthusiastic about being intubated.
  72. @Sean
    The danger of having medical insurance! Daughter from Cali with no financial skin in the game must be why the hospitals like to call them "Respect Forms". I have been told by someone who works in the field in Britain that not infrequently it is the next of kin who make the decision for DNR to be marked in the elderly and infirm person's medical records. Of late, the elderly who are being sent to old folks homes from hospital, and those in care homes who already have long standing DNR are increasingly being asked to sign that if they get coronavirus they do not want to go to hospital.


    At least half of the COVID-19 deaths are among the residents of care homes, or people in their own house who are being looked after by social services. The owners of the institutions have little incentive to see their business model take a huge hit in an epidemic, and that is why the main complaints about the infirm being asked to sign these new COVID-19 palliative care only (which often means an overdose of opium to finish off those in distress) is coming from the management/ owners of old folks homes.

    There was never much chance of hospitals being overwhelmed by COVID-19 because almost all of those it kills are in a demographic that there are procedures in place for denying treatment to already. Indeed, one might say flattening the curve of hospital admissions is inherent in everyday modern medicine, and were it not for the fact that there are people making a profit out of warehousing the elderly for a few years at the end of their lives, it would be accepted as absolutely necessary to speed the end in more cases. There are people with religious objection, but I honestly think many don't realise they can exit comfortably and with a little dignity. The few people at the end of their lives I have talked to were worried about being kept alive in hospital too long.

    Few seem enthusiastic about being intubated.

  73. @New Dealer
    Venturing out from the Sailer blog to Unz' Pravda is like going from the 19th hole at the golf club to the Star Wars Mos Eisley bar full of aliens.

    https://coloradoavidgolfer.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Blackstone-Club-Aurora-CO-patio-people-960x410.jpg

    https://starwarsblog.starwars.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/cantina-creatures-1536x864-201224740128.jpg

    Look into the mirror, man. There is a reason Sailer is hosted on this site, and not on many other sites.

    Not that I think badly of Sailer or you, but you are delusional.

  74. @CJ
    It's definitely looking like the estimates of millions of deaths were way high. Clearly this won't be a civilizational event like the Black Death. Nonetheless, proponents of the "It's just the flu, bro" argument might consider some current data points:

    74 doctors dead of Covid-19 in Italy:
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-italian-doctors-fatalities-reach-tragic-levels-as-they-fight-covid-1/

    119 NHS staff dead of Covid-19 in Britain:
    https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article

    NYPD coronavirus death total reaches 30:
    https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/nypd-coronavirus-death-total-reaches-30-departments-sick-rate-continues-to-fall.html

    Nearly 100 US transit workers have died of Covid-19, including 68 at the NYC MTA alone:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/us-bus-drivers-lack-life-saving-basic-protections-transit-worker-deaths-coronavirus

    There's lot more of this, easily searchable. Medscape has a list of over 400 deceased medical personnel from around the world at https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976#vp_15 . Police One maintains a list of LE Covid deaths at https://www.policeone.com/coronavirus-covid-19/articles/covid-19-law-enforcement-deaths-3ftkdPnVffq55iHU/ .

    This data does not seem consistent with a bad flu season.

    There’s lot more of this, easily searchable. Medscape has a list of over 400 deceased medical personnel from around the world at https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927976#vp_15 .

    Well, the World Health Organization (WHO, but I like the rock band much better) breaks out the global health workforce into these categories:

    – Medical doctors
    – Nursing and midwifery personnel
    – Dentistry personnel
    – Pharmaceutical personnel
    – Environmental and Occupational Health and Hygiene Personnel
    – Medical and Pathology Laboratory Personnel
    – Physiotherapy personnel
    – Traditional and Complementary Medicine personnel
    – Community Health Workers

    Just taking the most probable at risk of that workforce (doctors, nurses, lab specialists), the 2018 global workforce total is: ~18,134,000

    So, 400/18,134,000 = .0000022% of the global healthcare workforce has succumbed to the disease. Let’s say that total is under-counted by factor of 4, and not 400 dead, but 1600 dead (because who knows how many have died from COVID19 in closed societies like Iran, China and Russia). 1600/18,134,000 = .000009%.

    So, we can safely say that the global healthcare workforce will weather this storm. This ain’t The Somme, Verdun, Ypres, Passchendaele, or the Marne. It turns out that, in a pandemic (by definition a regional/global outbreak of a highly infectious disease) healthcare workers are at greater risk of contracting it. Who knew?

  75. Steve, I appreciate the effort at instruction, but sorry, I’m still uncertain about some things. (1.) what is a “case”? Does it mean someone sick or just anyone tested? (2.) How can you count infections without diagnosing?

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    From my extensive reading lately:

    CFR = deaths tested positive for X disease / cases tested positive for X disease

    IFR = deaths tested positive for X disease (plus estimated sometimes) / cases tested positive for X disease plus estimated people with disease.

    CFR is almost universally higher than IFR. For example, last years flu had a CFR of 10% even though the general flu IFR holds steady at 0.1%.
  76. “We, the Swedish government, decided early in January that the measures we should take against the pandemic should be evidence-based. When you start looking around for the measures being taken now by different countries, you find that very few of them have any shred of evidence basis…”
    — Dr. Johan Giesecke

    I have commented abundantly about this horrible mess the world has gotten into, and I have argued mostly using practical down-to-Earth arguments. They show that the benefit is way below the cost of what most countries are doing with shutting the economy down, instilling fear in their citizens, etc.

    I have also brought up ethical arguments which were beautifully laid out by Peter Singer, a specialist in that area of inquiry.

    But there is an angle which I haven’t explored, and which is exposed in the above quote by dr. Giesecke. It’s not easy to act on the basis of evidence in a situation of a fast-expanding pandemic. But is there a better way? What does it mean for the future of civilization if decisions made on wild guesses and blind hunches — and which are bound to have enormous economic and social consequences — become the norm?

    Many people in this site are gloating over their extreme foresight in terms of predicting with astounding precision the infection rate, fatality rate, etc. of this virus. ‘Look! I told you so!’, they gloat. But what are they gloating over, exactly? Their luck? Is this a casino of ideas? What does it matter if they were right or wrong? They didn’t have the data and neither did the ones who guessed wrong.

    There is virtually no chance that the world will come out of this crisis without heavy losses. But I wonder whether we shouldn’t fear a milder outcome more than a very traumatic one. If we think we can get away easily with rash, hasty decisions and even profit from them politically, rashness and haste will become valuable personal assets, and there will be a legion of politicians and decision makers who will compete in the future to see who is the the most reckless, the most “audacious”. And God help us then.

  77. no underwear at all
    My God. Is there still some joie de vivre out there? We may yet pull through this thing…

  78. The old town of Bergamo is very beautiful, but it is a medieval city, with residences, shops and churches packed close together along narrow streets. And yes, getting from the low, flat new town to the top of the old town without the funicular is a tough walk. Lombardy has some very fit geezers.

  79. @anon

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.
     
    Because holding that position enables them to pose as the last sane man in a world gone mad, hence all the "If" quotes going around. It also obviates the need to confront a difficult reality and/or rethink their preconceptions.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.

    Because holding that position enables them to pose as the last sane man in a world gone mad, hence all the “If” quotes going around. It also obviates the need to confront a difficult reality and/or rethink their preconceptions.

    Yes, I’d definitely agree with that. I also think the same situation applies to another critical comment made by someone else upthread:

    Venturing out from the Sailer blog to Unz’ Pravda is like going from the 19th hole at the golf club to the Star Wars Mos Eisley bar full of aliens.

    Those so interested can take a look and draw their own conclusions:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-our-coronavirus-catastrophe-as-biowarfare-blowback/

    https://www.unz.com/page/american-pravda-series/

    • Replies: @MB
    Dunno Ron, my take has always been that this is a panic plannedemic piggybacking on top of a nasty flu epidemic. Was the planning long range or merely opportunistic? Id2020, Event 201?

    You may disagree, but I don't see a genuine medical pandemic in the numbers - the models were on steroids AND drugs, as well as insane.

    And maybe I missed it, but neither do I see you concluding definitely that it was bio warfare.
    FTM it could be just plain sloppiness, which has been part of the problem with the bio labs everybody is operating. Lieber may be a whistleblower, but Ft. Detrick invited the Bat Lady to the facilities and there was a Chinese guy caught smuggling material in his socks out of the Toronto lab.

    California has got way more sunshine than NY. I really doubt that the double whammy has yet to hit there, cowering in place/anti-social distancing or no, which is the wrong way to go to build herd immunity and climb out of this hole.
  80. @Aeronerauk
    Do people really regard Italians as unhealthy? My initial thought was that the Italians kiss and hug acquaintances far more than the average culture and that was responsible. Not that they were slovenly or ate crap.

    Yeah, I was surprised by that too. I’ve spent probably a year of my life in Italy, and you don’t see much obesity there at all–and they of course famously eat better than almost anyone on earth. Is the astonishing vanity of the typical Italian man going to allow him even to flirt with being fat? Not in my experience.

    • Replies: @Jimbo in OPKS
    You are correct. A year ago this month the wife and I were in Milan, Turin, and Lugano. When we got home to KS, we were at a large gathering and I whispered to my wife, " did we see anyone this fat in Italy?"
  81. @New Dealer
    Venturing out from the Sailer blog to Unz' Pravda is like going from the 19th hole at the golf club to the Star Wars Mos Eisley bar full of aliens.

    https://coloradoavidgolfer.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Blackstone-Club-Aurora-CO-patio-people-960x410.jpg

    https://starwarsblog.starwars.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/cantina-creatures-1536x864-201224740128.jpg

    There are always top MDs at the 19th hole who could be saving lives in ER. Ditto the Sailer blog.

  82. @Anonymous
    Really? Because I’ve been paying pretty close attention to this the entire time, and I haven’t noticed anybody around here adopting this flippant and condescending attitude. On the other hand, Ron Unz seems to have no problem displaying open contempt for his readers, and with statements like the above, you appear to be heading in that direction as well.

    There is obviously a bifurcation in the readership atm other than the usual Jew/goy divide, and surprisingly this one has more heat.

    The attitude Steve refers to is kind of implied with what is happening in Italy and New York, no? A lot of older folks are dying, way more than a bad flu, and that is in spite of lockdowns. Never seen a flu lockdown in my life before. Apparently nursing homes can shut down for flu, but that is the extent of it AFAIK. Anyway, this song seems apropos.

    https://youtu.be/QNvKo7Bww-s

    If the "Just the flu, brah" crowd have that amount of respect for the lives of Unz and Steve who are nearing their 60s... I can't really blame either for being a little sloppy with the characterizations IMO.

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?

    Don’t be glib. 26 million people in America alone have lost their jobs and their livelihoods. They have children to feed and bills to pay. Right now they’re sitting around under a sentence of arbitrary and indefinite house arrest and wondering what the hell is going to happen to them. Meat processing facilities have shut down and shortages are not far off. Divorce, suicide, domestic violence, and abortions are all increasing.

    If you think this is about “wearing a mask for a while,” I have nothing else to say to you.

    • Replies: @Mehen
    I’ve used my 3 Reacts already so I just wanted to heartily endorse your comment. It seems some on the CoronaPanic side have a childish notion of what the rest of us are saying.
    , @Hail

    abortions are...increasing
     
    The issuance of marriage licenses is reportedly banned in states with lockdowns. Abortion, meanwhile, is still freely available in all states.

    CoronaPriorities.

    , @Anonymous
    You are the guy who said this:

    It’s a fear that needs to mastered, but then again so is the desire to keep the planet wrapped up in a face mask while you go off on some quixotic crusade for more Holy Data.
     
    So I ask you, what is the issue with going out in public with a face mask on for a matter of months? That is one aspect of a solution. It will lower R if everyone wears them. The better the mask, the lower the R value. I think in part you were speaking metaphorically but also I think you chose your words for a reason.

    Yes, other measures are also required to lower the R value more, short of full lockdown. These are also not the end of the world. They in the majority Chinese countries, who have had to deal with SARS1. Open your eyes. Do your research. Only China welded doors shut and that was only in one city. Their economies are still going on.

    I don't get the whole taboo of face masks among Europeans. It's understandable for Chinese to rip off US aircraft designs but for whites to rip off the idea of everyone wearing a mask? Literally anudah... holodomor? World War? Oh noes... wearing a mask will transform me into a soulless bug person. FFS.

    For the part of the web that is more on board with prepping, generally anti-materialist, it's odd to me.
  83. @UK

    119 NHS staff dead of Covid-19 in Britain:
    https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article
     
    1.5 million people work for the NHS. They are far from all "front-line" but they are both the most likely people to be exposed and the most likely to be connected at home and in social circles to those exposed.

    1 in 12,605 dying with would be remarkably small for that group.

    And the NYPD employs–incredibly–over 55,000 people, so 30 deaths isn’t as horrific as it sounds.

  84. @stillCARealist
    They all smoke.

    I don't care what the official numbers say, they all smoke. The streets of Rome are a giant ashtray.

    Tobacco seems to protect users from coronavirus.

    Studies in France and China suggest a substance in tobacco – possibly nicotine – may be stopping patients who smoke from catching Covid-19. Clinical trials of nicotine patches are awaiting the approval of the country’s health authorities.

    The renowned French neurobiologist Jean-Pierre Changeux, who reviewed the study, suggested the nicotine might stop the virus from reaching cells in the body preventing its spread. Nicotine may also lessen the overreaction of the body’s immune system that has been found in the most severe cases of Covid-19 infection. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

    https://www.qeios.com/read/article/581
    This preliminary analysis does not support the argument that current smoking is a risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19. Instead, these consistent observations, which are further emphasized by the low prevalence of current smoking among COVID-19 patients in the US (1.3%), raises the hypothesis that nicotine may have beneficial effects on COVID-19.

    • Replies: @Mehen

    This preliminary analysis does not support the argument that current smoking is a risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19. Instead, these consistent observations, which are further emphasized by the low prevalence of current smoking among COVID-19 patients in the US (1.3%), raises the hypothesis that nicotine may have beneficial effects on COVID-19.
     
    I personally disagree with the nicotine hypothesis (thinking instead it has more to do with the constant low-grade inflammatory response, or perhaps simply “gunk” blocking viral entry) but an interesting fact is this epidemiological finding which is repeatedly found, is also seen in the data for SARS1 (but not MERS or the flu)
  85. @Intelligent Dasein

    It’s an interesting question and i haven’t seen it addressed at all, really.
     
    Actually, I and others have addressed that a lot. It's because exposure to the virus is already quite common and increasing case counts are solely a function of the number of tests performed, not of a spreading epidemic. Herd immunity is already here.

    The proportion of deaths to identified cases is over 5% in some states, indicating that testing is not increasing. Even more striking when you consider that deaths lag tests.

    A hard hit region, near NYC, might have had 1 in 2000, 0.05% of its population die so far, indicating around 5% infection rate (3 to 10% range looking at other indicators) .

    Consider that is has burned through the nursing homes, 40 to 50% of deaths are in that population, 90% of NJ nursing homes affected. That means lower death rates in the wider younger population when it spreads there, but also that nursing home deaths are not a good indicator of general prevalence.

    There are still many, many nursing home residents who can still die of this, and their caretakers at risk, but the rest of us are far away from herd immunity, even in the hot zones, NYC possibly excepted.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    A hard hit region, near NYC, might have had 1 in 2000, 0.05% of its population die so far
     
    Actually, that's a pretty substantial underestimate. The NYT checked the numbers and just during a recent five week period, there were 17K "excess deaths" in NYC, suggesting that the Coronavirus killed something like 0.20% of the entire population in a little over a month:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
  86. @danand

    “Bergamo is so hilly that a 52 degree funicular was installed in 1887 to connect the Lower City to the Upper City.”
     
    No wonder they were hard hit, they’re packed in those cars/trains like sardines:

    https://youtu.be/G7opUktJ-aY

    (If you bother to watch, use the 2X speed option; won’t diminish the view.)

    I’ve taken that funicular. Citta Alta has some gorgeous squares, and my second-favorite restaurant in Italy. Make no mistake: Bergamo is a wealthy city, and the trappings up in
    Citta Alta reflect that, like the tomb of Bartolomeo Colleoni.

  87. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    The IFR will depend on the demographics of the area. In New York State the IFR may reach 1% while in California it could be .6%

    NY is 18% Black, 12% Puerto Rican / Dominican and 7% Asian. while CA is 6% Black, 31% Mexican and 14% Asian . The average age in New York is 40 versus just 36 in California.

    So we would expect the Fatality rate to be lower in sunny California than cold New York based on the different population density and different demographics....

    Btw, it’s been especially cold in NY this April. Saw snowflakes falling this AM just north of Epicentral. Normal high is 65 degrees, and we barely hit 40 today. It hasn’t helped encourage people to go out in the vitamin-D-enhancing sunlight that also kills viruses with UV.

    I wonder if the massive drop in burning fossil fuels that has driven oil to <$20 a barrel has also caused a chill in the weather? Just another reason to love the shutdown.

    • LOL: vhrm
  88. @Coemgen

    In a sea of murky data, the one thing that is crystal clear is that the virus is only a real threat to sickly people over 60 years old.
     
    Better they die and decrease the surplus population ...

    If this WAS a deep state virus, call that these are the guys happily sucking up the 1$trillion in “defense” and “intelligence” money we spend every year. Not that the US was defended or prepared for something that isn’t even really alive to attack it. Meanwhile, fixed expenditures on Social Security and Medicare continue to grow.

    At some point, and that date has been moved up by the massive debt taken on in the past month, the Federal Government is going to have to square the circle between these four big items: interest over $1T, Social Security .9T, Medicare .7T, and Deep State .9T (.1T going for interest on past military debt counted in that category). The DS might have money and power, but not votes; and granny is more interested in collecting her SS than in ruling the world.

    So a virus that selectively killed elderly and sick people likely to absorb public dollars would be useful to them.

  89. @slumber_j
    Yeah, I was surprised by that too. I've spent probably a year of my life in Italy, and you don't see much obesity there at all--and they of course famously eat better than almost anyone on earth. Is the astonishing vanity of the typical Italian man going to allow him even to flirt with being fat? Not in my experience.

    You are correct. A year ago this month the wife and I were in Milan, Turin, and Lugano. When we got home to KS, we were at a large gathering and I whispered to my wife, ” did we see anyone this fat in Italy?”

  90. @Ron Unz
    Well, much closer to home there were some very grim numbers about NYC in this morning's NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Given the possibilities of Coronavirus deaths being both over-estimated and under-estimated, they just worked out the "excess deaths" for a number of countries and cities.

    In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. So in little more than one month, probably something like 0.2% of the entire population died from the Coronavirus. That's a pretty big number, especially since I doubt that more than a fraction of the local population had been infected during the relevant window for those deaths.

    Based on that figure, I think it's difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%. Maybe it really is closer to the 1% that lots of people had earlier been casually assuming.

    I also think it conclusively demonstrates that the recent Santa Clara and LA infection estimates were just as ridiculous as lots of knowledgeable statisticians had argued.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can't see how they can continue to hold that position.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    It compares against the “Historical average”. Some years the flu is mild with 12,000 dead, some years are worse, with 60,000 dead. What would the graph show if instead of the average, it was against one of the above average seasons?

    • Agree: Hail
    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    It compares against the “Historical average”. Some years the flu is mild with 12,000 dead, some years are worse, with 60,000 dead. What would the graph show if instead of the average, it was against one of the above average seasons?
     
    Well, courtesy of MoA here's a Financial Times chart showing the current spike in excess British weekly deaths compared to the distribution totals for the last *fifty* years. Is fifty years enough for you? I strongly suspect that an NYC chart would look fairly similar:

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/britainexessdeath2.jpg
  91. @Intelligent Dasein

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?
     
    Don't be glib. 26 million people in America alone have lost their jobs and their livelihoods. They have children to feed and bills to pay. Right now they're sitting around under a sentence of arbitrary and indefinite house arrest and wondering what the hell is going to happen to them. Meat processing facilities have shut down and shortages are not far off. Divorce, suicide, domestic violence, and abortions are all increasing.

    If you think this is about "wearing a mask for a while," I have nothing else to say to you.

    I’ve used my 3 Reacts already so I just wanted to heartily endorse your comment. It seems some on the CoronaPanic side have a childish notion of what the rest of us are saying.

  92. @Travis
    Tobacco seems to protect users from coronavirus.

    Studies in France and China suggest a substance in tobacco – possibly nicotine – may be stopping patients who smoke from catching Covid-19. Clinical trials of nicotine patches are awaiting the approval of the country’s health authorities.

    The renowned French neurobiologist Jean-Pierre Changeux, who reviewed the study, suggested the nicotine might stop the virus from reaching cells in the body preventing its spread. Nicotine may also lessen the overreaction of the body’s immune system that has been found in the most severe cases of Covid-19 infection. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

    https://www.qeios.com/read/article/581
    This preliminary analysis does not support the argument that current smoking is a risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19. Instead, these consistent observations, which are further emphasized by the low prevalence of current smoking among COVID-19 patients in the US (1.3%), raises the hypothesis that nicotine may have beneficial effects on COVID-19.

    This preliminary analysis does not support the argument that current smoking is a risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19. Instead, these consistent observations, which are further emphasized by the low prevalence of current smoking among COVID-19 patients in the US (1.3%), raises the hypothesis that nicotine may have beneficial effects on COVID-19.

    I personally disagree with the nicotine hypothesis (thinking instead it has more to do with the constant low-grade inflammatory response, or perhaps simply “gunk” blocking viral entry) but an interesting fact is this epidemiological finding which is repeatedly found, is also seen in the data for SARS1 (but not MERS or the flu)

  93. Hail says: • Website
    @Kratoklastes
    It's almost as if human beings, who make decisions about how to live their lives, had made a bunch of risk-mitigation decisions all by their own self, while The Overlords were busy holding their dicks.

    The Overlords will still claim the credit though - and every major media outlet will amplify the message.

    Outside the US there will be media unanimity on the scale (infinite) of the debt that the peons owe The Overlords.

    Inside the US it will be a bit more nuanced: CNN will say that the credit only belongs to Overlords who once contradicted Trump; Fox will say the credit belongs to Trump and Jared Kushner.

    Your political assessment is exactly on the mark; those are exactly the competing narratives that will exist by late May and June and beyond.

    ______________

    A comment on what mechanism drove down the R0:

    It’s almost as if human beings, who make decisions about how to live their lives, had made a bunch of risk-mitigation decisions all by their own self,

    This must be partly it.

    Something else the experts have been saying is that the epidemic may have already been peaking and declining, on its own in many/most places, following the same epidemic cycle that all other flu viruses follow. The political overreactions were reacting to the majorly lagging indicator of virus-positive deaths, and to the less-delayed-but-still-lagging indicator of confirmed-new-positives. This would be kind of like the US pouring a huge portion of GDP into a major naval buildup at Pearl Harbor in 1946, in case of Japanese attack.

    (The feeling that the lockdowns were probably not needed for public healt given early data of the progress of the epidemic at the time, now confirmed by the R0 calculations such as the Robert Koch Institute’s, was the basis for the many experts arguing by late March and early April against the lockdowns, to the extent they were brave enough to.)

    The natural flu-virus-cycle always looks something like that RKI graph. Throw a dart at a calendar. Whatever date you hit, odds are that some virus in your region is doing exactly what is seen in the RKI’s calculated Wuhan Coronavirus R-Naught in Germany graph, recently released. Some virus of some kind will be following that arc. Emerging, rising, peaking, declining. All unbeknownst to us, all emerging and declining for one reason or another, a series of superspreading events, weather, whatever. Most are very minor, some moderately more serious and trigger “peak flu events” which become visible in total-mortality data, usually in December, January, or February but spikes in March are not surprising.

    All flu viruses do this. This is what led Knut Wittkowski to recently say, “As we have learned now, over and over again, this flu is a flu.” Most of us don’t bother paying attention to such things (why would we?) but specialists know the pattern here.

    While the ‘lockdown’ is shown in the RKI’s R-Naught calculation (graph above) to have been unnecessary, whatever exactly we attribute the decline to, there are still lessons: The temporary restriction on large events may have been beneficial. At least chronologically, it probably predates by the peak: The RKI has 95% confidence that the R0 peak in Germany hit between 12:01am March 9 and 11:59pm March 11. Current Health Minister, lifetime politician, and 2020s-, 2030s-, or 2040s-era Chancellor-wannabe Jens Spahn called for the ban on large events with over 1,000 people on the afternoon of March 8, effective the next day, so the order predates the peak but contributing causality is debatable.

    The problem with even the reasonable large-event-ban order, is that, in retrospect in this case, even that kind of order was probably a contributing factor to the international Panic (the CoronaPanic), and, to that extent, even it may have been a net negative. As I see it, one must analyze this thing in terms of both calculations like the R-Naught and social-political factors that contributed to the vortex of Panic that have caused so much unnecessary damage.

    The unquestionably beneficial measure during the upward-arc of this epidemic would have been: Measures to quietly protect the vulnerable by no later than the first week of March.

  94. @Tono Bungay
    Steve, I appreciate the effort at instruction, but sorry, I'm still uncertain about some things. (1.) what is a "case"? Does it mean someone sick or just anyone tested? (2.) How can you count infections without diagnosing?

    From my extensive reading lately:

    CFR = deaths tested positive for X disease / cases tested positive for X disease

    IFR = deaths tested positive for X disease (plus estimated sometimes) / cases tested positive for X disease plus estimated people with disease.

    CFR is almost universally higher than IFR. For example, last years flu had a CFR of 10% even though the general flu IFR holds steady at 0.1%.

  95. Hail says: • Website
    @vhrm

    But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.
     
    Still not a hoaxer, but definitely anti-Lockdown.

    I think some amount of the excess deaths are caused by the anxiety of the Fear and the Lockdown.

    Personally i can't listen to the daily briefings by Newsom, Cuomo and Trump because i just get angry. And I'm not a particular high strung person. Also, listening to the various NPR shows (which i also have to ration on the same grounds) the hosts and reporters mention anxiety OFTEN. Sometimes in the stories, but also in the little interactions around the stories. I believe there is a huge amount of anxiety out there. It's probably even higher among people who feel very personally at risk.

    Stress is not good for people, especially the frail elderly and people with heart trouble.

    I honestly have no idea how many, and I'd like trustworthy epidemiologists and geriatric medicine people to look into it and tell us.

    As soon as i opened that NYT article i wondered if they had Sweden in there. And, lo! There it is at the bottom of the list with no excess deaths beyond the reported Covid-19 deaths.
    From what i understand the fear is relatively low in Sweden.

    I don't think it's the whole story, but definitely part of it.

    I think some amount of the excess deaths are caused by the anxiety of the Fear and the Lockdown.

    This is no longer speculative but has been confirmed. In peak places, the surprising fact is that it’s not “some” but “most.”

    In the UK data, we see the same. Corona-negative deaths are a major portion of excess deaths, and of the corona-positive deaths, a large share are terminal patients who would have died anyway, or other cases. Only a small portion of excess deaths are definitely and unambiguously attributable to the flu-virus epidemic there whose cause of death is a respiratory disease. The reported UK corona-death total may have to be cut by as much as three or four to account for this.

  96. @Intelligent Dasein

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?
     
    Don't be glib. 26 million people in America alone have lost their jobs and their livelihoods. They have children to feed and bills to pay. Right now they're sitting around under a sentence of arbitrary and indefinite house arrest and wondering what the hell is going to happen to them. Meat processing facilities have shut down and shortages are not far off. Divorce, suicide, domestic violence, and abortions are all increasing.

    If you think this is about "wearing a mask for a while," I have nothing else to say to you.

    abortions are…increasing

    The issuance of marriage licenses is reportedly banned in states with lockdowns. Abortion, meanwhile, is still freely available in all states.

    CoronaPriorities.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    Abortion, meanwhile, is still freely available in all states.

     

    Texas banned them Mar 23rd but unbanned them today.

    https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/23/abortion-providers-drop-request-for-court-to-block-texas-ban-after-state-says-its-over/
  97. Hail says: • Website
    @Ron Unz
    Well, much closer to home there were some very grim numbers about NYC in this morning's NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Given the possibilities of Coronavirus deaths being both over-estimated and under-estimated, they just worked out the "excess deaths" for a number of countries and cities.

    In the case of NYC, there were a remarkable 17K excess deaths during just the five weeks ending on April 18th. So in little more than one month, probably something like 0.2% of the entire population died from the Coronavirus. That's a pretty big number, especially since I doubt that more than a fraction of the local population had been infected during the relevant window for those deaths.

    Based on that figure, I think it's difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%. Maybe it really is closer to the 1% that lots of people had earlier been casually assuming.

    I also think it conclusively demonstrates that the recent Santa Clara and LA infection estimates were just as ridiculous as lots of knowledgeable statisticians had argued.

    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can't see how they can continue to hold that position.

    it’s difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%

    The figures coming out of European countries which have done randomized population sampling (such as the recent Easter Weekend [April 10-13] randomized antibody test in Stockholm County, Sweden) are all pointing to a best-bet range for a true fatality rate of 0.05% to 0.2% in their countries.

    Is there some reason the same virus would be much more/less deadly in one country than in the next? Or are the European testing authorities controlled by a cabal of Corona-Hoaxers? (Or, as Greg Cochran wrote of Dr Ioannidis, are the European testing authorities “lying for money”?)

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Mehen
    What’s your take on the “different strains” evidence?
  98. @Hail

    it’s difficult to argue that the IFR can be much below 0.5%
     
    The figures coming out of European countries which have done randomized population sampling (such as the recent Easter Weekend [April 10-13] randomized antibody test in Stockholm County, Sweden) are all pointing to a best-bet range for a true fatality rate of 0.05% to 0.2% in their countries.

    Is there some reason the same virus would be much more/less deadly in one country than in the next? Or are the European testing authorities controlled by a cabal of Corona-Hoaxers? (Or, as Greg Cochran wrote of Dr Ioannidis, are the European testing authorities "lying for money"?)

    What’s your take on the “different strains” evidence?

  99. @Hail

    The Coronavirus is extremely contagious, so without this lockdown it would be growing exponentially, with the number of infected doubling every three days or so. A solid lockdown stops that
     
    The Robert Koch Institute (Germany) data, now out, is against this. As is the Swedish and Swiss data and others:
    .
    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/coronavirus-r0-in-germany-march-6-to-april-9.png

    If you look at the google community mobility report for Germany here:
    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-11_DE_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

    it suggests a correlation between the decline in the rate of transmission and the decline in the mobility of people in Germany. While lockdown was ordered on March 23, German authorities were already suggesting it before. For example, Merkel had an address to the nation on March 18 where she said Germans should stay at home.

    I recognize this is just a correlation between two sets of data and might not be significant, but it might indicate the effectiveness of staying at home.

    • Replies: @Hail
    Thanks. The RKI's estimate appears to be that R0 in Germany peaked at some point within the 72-hour window of late-PM March 8 to late-PM March 11. It fell below 3.0 already as of the morning of March 12; below 2.0 by about late in the day on March 14; it was below 1.5 as of the morning of March 17; it fell below 1.0 on the morning of March 20.

    Therefore I would suggest the period of interest is the nine days between March 9 to 17. If there are measures taken by the government or by people that reduces R0 in this time, they would be found here.

    In your link to the Google mobility data, I see, for example, that visits to mass-transit begin to majorly decline beginning the weekend of March 14-15. Workplace visits start to steadily way down starting Monday March 16 and were down by 40% the usual rate by Friday March 20. It looks like visits to "retail and recreation" start to go way down also about March 16, reaching ca.70% below normal by March 21.

    Interestingl enoughy, each one of these declines in observed activity post-dates the 95%-confidence interval for when the R0 peak was hit (which is, at latest, late evening of March 11).

    There are a lot of variables here, and there is probably no doubt people changing their behaviors in this way contributed to the lower R0, but we can conclude is that the full-shutdown order, which was announced March 22 and effective March 23, was unnecessary, a clear case of a political overreaction to the lagging indicator of "confirmed new coronavirus test-positive cases" and the majorly lagging indicator of coronavirus-positive deaths.

    See another comment above for more thoughts:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/new-estimate-of-population-fatality-rate-in-bergamo-province-0-57/#comment-3855558
  100. @utu
    Great paper. Very well written. Great graphs where you can clearly see the excess deaths. They used some fancy schmancy stuff to estimate the baseline with "the counterfactual analysis" Conditional Mean with a Gaussian process (CGP) and Synthetic Control Method (SCM), which however, when you look at Figure 1, are negligibly different from the average of historical record that everybody who has never heard of the counterfactual analysis would have used. Anyway, they got good estimates of age dependent PFR which still can be an underestimate because they can't account for the fatalities that did not occur because of the lockdown like car accidents that would push the baseline lower. So they "assume that this effect is negligible" as any scientist would have done if he couldn't estimate the damn thing while being pressed by the publication deadline.

    But when they go from PFR to IFR they are limited by data quality they have. They write:

    To estimate the IFR from the PFR, we need the infection ratio (IR) of the population. Here we have used the Test Positivity Rate (TPR), the fraction of positive to total tests, as the fraction of infected population. Due to the criterion of primarily testing people with symptoms, this should be an upper bound on the IR during the first few weeks of infection, hence making this IFR a lower bound. Further, we assume that this ratio is age independent in every region5. The age averaged lower bounds on IFR are shown in Table 1, reaching a 0.84% IFR lower bound in Lombardia.
     
    If TPR is na upper bound then IFR=PFR/TPR obviously is a lower count but I have a problem seeing that the TPR from "the first few weeks of infection" is necessarily the upper bound. So, I would not take their claims of estimating lower bounds of IFR as definitive.

    Then they take the IFR from Diamond Princess for age over 70 and apply it to Lombardy PFR data for age over 70 and calculate the infection rate IR=PFR/IFR. Then under the assumption of age-independent IR they derive IFR=PFR/IR for all the other age-groups. This is a value added products, not a circular thinking even if it appears so, though it hinges entirely on a single number derived from Diamond Princess data.

    Age depended IFR values from “Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis”, Modi et al.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2.full.pdf

    Population IFR for populations with different age demographics can be calculated from this table.

    • Thanks: res
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    So, for people up to about age 59, a typical flu death rate. 60-69, a very bad flu death rate. Over 69, a catastrophe.

    It's a shame we didn't know to lock down elderly people in early March.
  101. @Achmed E. Newman
    It's really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It's called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don't trust anything like this. It's fudge factors all the way down.

    Now, I'll get all anecdotal on your asses now to just demonstrate how much trouble this panic has been causing. Some homeless guy with his (pretty-nice, blue) scooter was sitting next to a church in our neighborhood. Me and my 8 y/o boy (me on roller-blades on the road and he on a bike on the sidewalks) passed him one way, then 30 minutes later were on the other side of the street coming toward him. My son would have passed 5 or 6 ft from where he was hanging out.

    The guy started yelling loud as he could at me about us being too close, and "you can't take a kid around, you're tryin' to kill me, get away!" or some such stuff. I wasn't gonna take that and got on the sidewalk rolling toward him and telling him to shut the hell up. (We'd have been glad to go way around, but I'm not gonna take abuse like that.) He threatened to kick my ass, and I'm not at all a big guy, but I kept on coming.

    The guy got on his scooter, as I was I telling him to f-off and such. Then he turned around 75 yards away and came at me in a game of chicken, he on the scooter and me on rollerblades, passed with 1 foot of me (apparently forgetful of the R0 data), as I tried to grab a sleeve to dump his crazy ass onto the road.

    Then, I started rollerblading down the road after him in this neighborhood, let's call it "Crestview" or something, just for fun, and, see now here's the part you'd have liked, Steve, if I had been just a little bit quicker. I yelled "get out of Crestview" but without the "...Lebowski!" Opportunities like that don't come often.

    Yes, he was mentally ill, but all this hysteria had not helped that man one bit. Me neither.

    It’s really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It’s called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don’t trust anything like this. It’s fudge factors all the way down.

    That’s not at all what the calculus of variations is. You must be thinking of multiple regression or something.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    No, no, I do know what regression best-fit curves are, F.B. Calculus of Variations is some cool shit (I didn't take a course on it, but it was one portion of a course with about 5 topics, this being the best.) The idea is to work out the best TYPE of function to fit a problem. It could be a polynomial, a power function, trig function, whatever.

    Honestly, I can't remember much more detail than that, except we were looking at the brachistochrone curve* as an example. Yes, I had to look it up to get that name for that seemingly simple problem - here. The type of function that made the solution was a cycloid.

    Regression with high-order polynomials can fit a lot of data, but the C. of V. doesn't start with any assumption of a polynomial.

    Now, that I've written all that, you are probably right - these people have nothing but old data and their new theory, and I don't know if that's the kind of problem Calculus of Variations is meant for. This has been a real blast from the past though I tell you!

    .

    * The function describing the path that would give the shortest time for an object to travel from point A to lower point B frictionlessly in a vertical plane under the influence of gravity.

  102. @J A A
    If you look at the google community mobility report for Germany here:
    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-11_DE_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

    it suggests a correlation between the decline in the rate of transmission and the decline in the mobility of people in Germany. While lockdown was ordered on March 23, German authorities were already suggesting it before. For example, Merkel had an address to the nation on March 18 where she said Germans should stay at home.

    I recognize this is just a correlation between two sets of data and might not be significant, but it might indicate the effectiveness of staying at home.

    Thanks. The RKI’s estimate appears to be that R0 in Germany peaked at some point within the 72-hour window of late-PM March 8 to late-PM March 11. It fell below 3.0 already as of the morning of March 12; below 2.0 by about late in the day on March 14; it was below 1.5 as of the morning of March 17; it fell below 1.0 on the morning of March 20.

    Therefore I would suggest the period of interest is the nine days between March 9 to 17. If there are measures taken by the government or by people that reduces R0 in this time, they would be found here.

    In your link to the Google mobility data, I see, for example, that visits to mass-transit begin to majorly decline beginning the weekend of March 14-15. Workplace visits start to steadily way down starting Monday March 16 and were down by 40% the usual rate by Friday March 20. It looks like visits to “retail and recreation” start to go way down also about March 16, reaching ca.70% below normal by March 21.

    Interestingl enoughy, each one of these declines in observed activity post-dates the 95%-confidence interval for when the R0 peak was hit (which is, at latest, late evening of March 11).

    There are a lot of variables here, and there is probably no doubt people changing their behaviors in this way contributed to the lower R0, but we can conclude is that the full-shutdown order, which was announced March 22 and effective March 23, was unnecessary, a clear case of a political overreaction to the lagging indicator of “confirmed new coronavirus test-positive cases” and the majorly lagging indicator of coronavirus-positive deaths.

    See another comment above for more thoughts:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/new-estimate-of-population-fatality-rate-in-bergamo-province-0-57/#comment-3855558

    • Replies: @Hail
    I wrote a full-length investigation on the decline in the transmission rate in Germany and changes in observed behavior, expecting to find some change that predated the beginning of the decline, i.e., social distancing.

    We know the decline to R0=1.0 predated the Lockdown order by several days, but you'd think there would be some obvious causal mechanism that started driving it down in the first place, e.g. the popular theory that riding mass transit was to blame.

    When comparing the Robert Koch Institute's calculated "R0" with measured changes in behavior, the surprising conclusion is that the beginning of the decline appears to have predated changes in behavior, suggesting the beginning of the herd immunity process was well underway:

    Against the Corona Panic, Pt. VIII: The coronavirus transmission rate (“R0”) fell long before the Lockdown orders; What caused the decline?

    Thanks to J A A and Krataklostes for ideas.
  103. @Anonymous
    Ron, I may be in the minority here but I agree with both yours and Steve's positions on reducing Chinese Virus spread. A non-zero % will be living on debilitated lungs (or other body parts) for the rest of their lives, which I would think is worth avoiding too.

    From an anti-immigrationist perspective I really don't get the push to downplay this. We are finally getting the sort of problem that the reaction and solution needed for reducing globalism and immigration dovetails with.

    And for higher risk influence like yourself and Steve, and a lot of older white voters, I'm not sure why we would want acceleration.

    I guess others MMV.

    Anonymous[194]: Thanks for stating this. It must be said that in one sense, it is a rational position to take. To try to take advantage of a given situation to advance one’s interests is rational.

    I wrote something on the case against this, against what I called “jockeying for political advantage on the coattails of Corona Hysteria.” See also this comment:

    https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2020/04/09/against-the-corona-panic-pt-ii-honor-the-truth-be-steadfast-defend-the-nation-say-no-to-jockeying-for-political-advantage-on-the-coattails-of-corona-hysteria/#comment-37032

    […] [T]he case for why this kind of thinking is flawed[:]

    It’s dishonorable. It’s senselessly damaging. It hurts your own people. As I have described it elsewhere, it creates a huge constituency of people who declare, in unison, “All Power to the Government and to the Holy Media!”

    But, for many of us, the very foremost reason to be anti-CoronaPanic is: It’s not true. We now know that the Wuhan coronavirus is not a particularly dangerous flu virus; the Panic is now fairly calculable to be literally hundreds of times more damaging than the virus […]

  104. Anonymous[194] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?
     
    Don't be glib. 26 million people in America alone have lost their jobs and their livelihoods. They have children to feed and bills to pay. Right now they're sitting around under a sentence of arbitrary and indefinite house arrest and wondering what the hell is going to happen to them. Meat processing facilities have shut down and shortages are not far off. Divorce, suicide, domestic violence, and abortions are all increasing.

    If you think this is about "wearing a mask for a while," I have nothing else to say to you.

    You are the guy who said this:

    It’s a fear that needs to mastered, but then again so is the desire to keep the planet wrapped up in a face mask while you go off on some quixotic crusade for more Holy Data.

    So I ask you, what is the issue with going out in public with a face mask on for a matter of months? That is one aspect of a solution. It will lower R if everyone wears them. The better the mask, the lower the R value. I think in part you were speaking metaphorically but also I think you chose your words for a reason.

    Yes, other measures are also required to lower the R value more, short of full lockdown. These are also not the end of the world. They in the majority Chinese countries, who have had to deal with SARS1. Open your eyes. Do your research. Only China welded doors shut and that was only in one city. Their economies are still going on.

    I don’t get the whole taboo of face masks among Europeans. It’s understandable for Chinese to rip off US aircraft designs but for whites to rip off the idea of everyone wearing a mask? Literally anudah… holodomor? World War? Oh noes… wearing a mask will transform me into a soulless bug person. FFS.

    For the part of the web that is more on board with prepping, generally anti-materialist, it’s odd to me.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right. Facemasks are inconvenient and have other downsides, but they sure sound like one way to help get the economy moving again.
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    This is not about masks. I was using the phrase "planet wrapped in a face mask" as a synecdoche for the whole lockdown and the attitudes conducive to it. I thought that was obvious, but it apparently it was not. I did not choose my words for any other reason.

    Is that clear, or do I need to be even more literal in the future?
    , @Mehen

    Only China welded doors shut and that was only in one city.
     
    This factoid needs to die. My understanding is they welded various points of entry/exit shut leaving only the lobby available in order for security to better temperature test the tenants of the apartment building. They clearly weren’t confining people in their homes to starve.
  105. @Hail

    abortions are...increasing
     
    The issuance of marriage licenses is reportedly banned in states with lockdowns. Abortion, meanwhile, is still freely available in all states.

    CoronaPriorities.

    Abortion, meanwhile, is still freely available in all states.

    Texas banned them Mar 23rd but unbanned them today.

    https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/23/abortion-providers-drop-request-for-court-to-block-texas-ban-after-state-says-its-over/

  106. @Anonymous
    You are the guy who said this:

    It’s a fear that needs to mastered, but then again so is the desire to keep the planet wrapped up in a face mask while you go off on some quixotic crusade for more Holy Data.
     
    So I ask you, what is the issue with going out in public with a face mask on for a matter of months? That is one aspect of a solution. It will lower R if everyone wears them. The better the mask, the lower the R value. I think in part you were speaking metaphorically but also I think you chose your words for a reason.

    Yes, other measures are also required to lower the R value more, short of full lockdown. These are also not the end of the world. They in the majority Chinese countries, who have had to deal with SARS1. Open your eyes. Do your research. Only China welded doors shut and that was only in one city. Their economies are still going on.

    I don't get the whole taboo of face masks among Europeans. It's understandable for Chinese to rip off US aircraft designs but for whites to rip off the idea of everyone wearing a mask? Literally anudah... holodomor? World War? Oh noes... wearing a mask will transform me into a soulless bug person. FFS.

    For the part of the web that is more on board with prepping, generally anti-materialist, it's odd to me.

    Right. Facemasks are inconvenient and have other downsides, but they sure sound like one way to help get the economy moving again.

  107. @Anonymous
    You are the guy who said this:

    It’s a fear that needs to mastered, but then again so is the desire to keep the planet wrapped up in a face mask while you go off on some quixotic crusade for more Holy Data.
     
    So I ask you, what is the issue with going out in public with a face mask on for a matter of months? That is one aspect of a solution. It will lower R if everyone wears them. The better the mask, the lower the R value. I think in part you were speaking metaphorically but also I think you chose your words for a reason.

    Yes, other measures are also required to lower the R value more, short of full lockdown. These are also not the end of the world. They in the majority Chinese countries, who have had to deal with SARS1. Open your eyes. Do your research. Only China welded doors shut and that was only in one city. Their economies are still going on.

    I don't get the whole taboo of face masks among Europeans. It's understandable for Chinese to rip off US aircraft designs but for whites to rip off the idea of everyone wearing a mask? Literally anudah... holodomor? World War? Oh noes... wearing a mask will transform me into a soulless bug person. FFS.

    For the part of the web that is more on board with prepping, generally anti-materialist, it's odd to me.

    This is not about masks. I was using the phrase “planet wrapped in a face mask” as a synecdoche for the whole lockdown and the attitudes conducive to it. I thought that was obvious, but it apparently it was not. I did not choose my words for any other reason.

    Is that clear, or do I need to be even more literal in the future?

  108. @Intelligent Dasein

    Nonetheless, proponents of the “It’s just the flu, bro” argument might consider some current data points:
     
    Okay then, let's change the optics on this. Forget "It's just the flu, bro." Say instead that in the very worst hit area, even after statisticians arbitrarily increased the number of deaths, it's about as bad as having the measles, the mumps, and the seasonal flu active at once---a situation which was the de facto condition throughout the Western world for centuries, and which no one ever thought to paralyze the planet over.

    At the very worst, we are taking a minor notch back to pre-vaccination era morbidity levels. Not even a big notch, but a teeny-tiny one. Something like this was bound to happen sooner or later anyway. Is it worth the draconian response? I don't think so.

    Now that’s a saner view, much more accepting of evidence. I strongly disagree the number of deaths was increased “arbitrarily”, but we are not expected to mostly agree in any case. I suspect you will not find much acceptance among the folks protesting for businesses to reopen, but I could be wrong.

    One thing I find curious is how few, if any, people come forward and say that “we know there is a very real risk many millions of Americans could die from the new coronavirus, including many dozens, possibly hundreds of thousands of young Americans. Many millions more might never fully recover from the disease. We are aware of that. But businesses have to reopen. Many dozens of millions of workers depend on those jobs/our economy simply cannot be brought to a halt like this/we have to keep our position as the wealthiest country, etc. That’s final”. They would be being honest. They would not be hiding anything, and would be acknowledging the situation without yielding. Instead, they minimize the pandemic and outright lie. How does that help their case?

  109. @Anonymous
    You are the guy who said this:

    It’s a fear that needs to mastered, but then again so is the desire to keep the planet wrapped up in a face mask while you go off on some quixotic crusade for more Holy Data.
     
    So I ask you, what is the issue with going out in public with a face mask on for a matter of months? That is one aspect of a solution. It will lower R if everyone wears them. The better the mask, the lower the R value. I think in part you were speaking metaphorically but also I think you chose your words for a reason.

    Yes, other measures are also required to lower the R value more, short of full lockdown. These are also not the end of the world. They in the majority Chinese countries, who have had to deal with SARS1. Open your eyes. Do your research. Only China welded doors shut and that was only in one city. Their economies are still going on.

    I don't get the whole taboo of face masks among Europeans. It's understandable for Chinese to rip off US aircraft designs but for whites to rip off the idea of everyone wearing a mask? Literally anudah... holodomor? World War? Oh noes... wearing a mask will transform me into a soulless bug person. FFS.

    For the part of the web that is more on board with prepping, generally anti-materialist, it's odd to me.

    Only China welded doors shut and that was only in one city.

    This factoid needs to die. My understanding is they welded various points of entry/exit shut leaving only the lobby available in order for security to better temperature test the tenants of the apartment building. They clearly weren’t confining people in their homes to starve.

  110. Hail says: • Website
    @The one
    Not even as bad as the infamous 2018 flu https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    the infamous 2018 flu

    It’s worth saying that your use of the word “infamous” here is, I am 99% sure, ironic.

    No one cared about the 2017-18 flu spike.

    One or more bad flu strains were circulating at the time, but none were “named,” (Wuhan Coronavirus! COVID19!), or at least the names were known only to specialists. A determined person might be able to find the technical names of the 2017-18 flu strains, somewhere in dense academic journal articles, if he wants. But really no one cared.

    By all indications we now have, the 2017-18 peak flu event(s) packed about as much of a ‘hit’ as the 2019-20 season, which is now concluding.

    In 2017-18, not only did/does no one ‘care,’ but few even knew. You can dig through archives and find local news stories about it, but generally speaking it’s safe to say the fact that flu season was bad was not on anyone’s radar.

    As the commenter prime noticer wrote:

    in the past, this would come and go like other previous pathogens and you might not even hear about it, or you’d see a 1 minute segment on the evening news one time, and that would be it. you wouldn’t know anybody who died from it and would forget it happened a few years later. because that’s about the scope of this thing.

  111. @Elli
    The proportion of deaths to identified cases is over 5% in some states, indicating that testing is not increasing. Even more striking when you consider that deaths lag tests.

    A hard hit region, near NYC, might have had 1 in 2000, 0.05% of its population die so far, indicating around 5% infection rate (3 to 10% range looking at other indicators) .

    Consider that is has burned through the nursing homes, 40 to 50% of deaths are in that population, 90% of NJ nursing homes affected. That means lower death rates in the wider younger population when it spreads there, but also that nursing home deaths are not a good indicator of general prevalence.

    There are still many, many nursing home residents who can still die of this, and their caretakers at risk, but the rest of us are far away from herd immunity, even in the hot zones, NYC possibly excepted.

    A hard hit region, near NYC, might have had 1 in 2000, 0.05% of its population die so far

    Actually, that’s a pretty substantial underestimate. The NYT checked the numbers and just during a recent five week period, there were 17K “excess deaths” in NYC, suggesting that the Coronavirus killed something like 0.20% of the entire population in a little over a month:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

  112. @Hippopotamusdrome


    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

     

    It compares against the "Historical average". Some years the flu is mild with 12,000 dead, some years are worse, with 60,000 dead. What would the graph show if instead of the average, it was against one of the above average seasons?

    It compares against the “Historical average”. Some years the flu is mild with 12,000 dead, some years are worse, with 60,000 dead. What would the graph show if instead of the average, it was against one of the above average seasons?

    Well, courtesy of MoA here’s a Financial Times chart showing the current spike in excess British weekly deaths compared to the distribution totals for the last *fifty* years. Is fifty years enough for you? I strongly suspect that an NYC chart would look fairly similar:

    • Thanks: Hippopotamusdrome
  113. @Faraday's Bobcat

    It’s really easy to make a mathematical model based on no theory and just previous numbers. It’s called Calculus of Variations. Just find the right equations that fit the previous data AND the current data. I don’t trust anything like this. It’s fudge factors all the way down.
     
    That's not at all what the calculus of variations is. You must be thinking of multiple regression or something.

    No, no, I do know what regression best-fit curves are, F.B. Calculus of Variations is some cool shit (I didn’t take a course on it, but it was one portion of a course with about 5 topics, this being the best.) The idea is to work out the best TYPE of function to fit a problem. It could be a polynomial, a power function, trig function, whatever.

    Honestly, I can’t remember much more detail than that, except we were looking at the brachistochrone curve* as an example. Yes, I had to look it up to get that name for that seemingly simple problem – here. The type of function that made the solution was a cycloid.

    Regression with high-order polynomials can fit a lot of data, but the C. of V. doesn’t start with any assumption of a polynomial.

    Now, that I’ve written all that, you are probably right – these people have nothing but old data and their new theory, and I don’t know if that’s the kind of problem Calculus of Variations is meant for. This has been a real blast from the past though I tell you!

    .

    * The function describing the path that would give the shortest time for an object to travel from point A to lower point B frictionlessly in a vertical plane under the influence of gravity.

  114. MB says: • Website
    @Anonymous
    Really? Because I’ve been paying pretty close attention to this the entire time, and I haven’t noticed anybody around here adopting this flippant and condescending attitude. On the other hand, Ron Unz seems to have no problem displaying open contempt for his readers, and with statements like the above, you appear to be heading in that direction as well.

    There is obviously a bifurcation in the readership atm other than the usual Jew/goy divide, and surprisingly this one has more heat.

    The attitude Steve refers to is kind of implied with what is happening in Italy and New York, no? A lot of older folks are dying, way more than a bad flu, and that is in spite of lockdowns. Never seen a flu lockdown in my life before. Apparently nursing homes can shut down for flu, but that is the extent of it AFAIK. Anyway, this song seems apropos.

    https://youtu.be/QNvKo7Bww-s

    If the "Just the flu, brah" crowd have that amount of respect for the lives of Unz and Steve who are nearing their 60s... I can't really blame either for being a little sloppy with the characterizations IMO.

    Is it the end of the world if we wear a face mask for a while?

    Locking down the local rest homes is standard around here if anybody gets sick in flu season.
    Last time if I remember correctly was 2 years ago.
    At one of the three, 110 were tested, 15 infected, 2 deaths, but already on hospice, the rest recovered.
    Patients can now walk the halls, sidewalk outside or sit on the sundeck, tho previously restricted to their apartment. Meals are brought up 3 times a day instead of served in downstairs cafeteria.

    • Replies: @MB
    Two and a half weeks ago at one of the three homes , 110 were tested, 15 infected, 2 deaths, but already on hospice, the rest recovered. . . .
  115. MB says: • Website
    @Ron Unz


    I realize this website is still crawling with Flu Hoaxers. But unless the NYT is just flat-out fabricating all those numbers, I can’t see how they can continue to hold that position.
     
    Because holding that position enables them to pose as the last sane man in a world gone mad, hence all the “If” quotes going around. It also obviates the need to confront a difficult reality and/or rethink their preconceptions.
     
    Yes, I'd definitely agree with that. I also think the same situation applies to another critical comment made by someone else upthread:

    Venturing out from the Sailer blog to Unz’ Pravda is like going from the 19th hole at the golf club to the Star Wars Mos Eisley bar full of aliens.
     
    Those so interested can take a look and draw their own conclusions:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-our-coronavirus-catastrophe-as-biowarfare-blowback/

    https://www.unz.com/page/american-pravda-series/

    Dunno Ron, my take has always been that this is a panic plannedemic piggybacking on top of a nasty flu epidemic. Was the planning long range or merely opportunistic? Id2020, Event 201?

    You may disagree, but I don’t see a genuine medical pandemic in the numbers – the models were on steroids AND drugs, as well as insane.

    And maybe I missed it, but neither do I see you concluding definitely that it was bio warfare.
    FTM it could be just plain sloppiness, which has been part of the problem with the bio labs everybody is operating. Lieber may be a whistleblower, but Ft. Detrick invited the Bat Lady to the facilities and there was a Chinese guy caught smuggling material in his socks out of the Toronto lab.

    California has got way more sunshine than NY. I really doubt that the double whammy has yet to hit there, cowering in place/anti-social distancing or no, which is the wrong way to go to build herd immunity and climb out of this hole.

    • Replies: @Hail

    I don’t see a genuine medical pandemic in the numbers
     
    Nor does anyone else. Though a few of the hotspots may have given that appearance to some.

    What we can see in some places is a spike in deaths attributable to the Panic and not to the Virus. It is now clear this happened in London and New York City, and probably elsewhere. The countries that maintained their composure and resisted the media-directed Panic had no such spike.
  116. @MB
    Locking down the local rest homes is standard around here if anybody gets sick in flu season.
    Last time if I remember correctly was 2 years ago.
    At one of the three, 110 were tested, 15 infected, 2 deaths, but already on hospice, the rest recovered.
    Patients can now walk the halls, sidewalk outside or sit on the sundeck, tho previously restricted to their apartment. Meals are brought up 3 times a day instead of served in downstairs cafeteria.

    Two and a half weeks ago at one of the three homes , 110 were tested, 15 infected, 2 deaths, but already on hospice, the rest recovered. . . .

  117. Hail says: • Website
    @MB
    Dunno Ron, my take has always been that this is a panic plannedemic piggybacking on top of a nasty flu epidemic. Was the planning long range or merely opportunistic? Id2020, Event 201?

    You may disagree, but I don't see a genuine medical pandemic in the numbers - the models were on steroids AND drugs, as well as insane.

    And maybe I missed it, but neither do I see you concluding definitely that it was bio warfare.
    FTM it could be just plain sloppiness, which has been part of the problem with the bio labs everybody is operating. Lieber may be a whistleblower, but Ft. Detrick invited the Bat Lady to the facilities and there was a Chinese guy caught smuggling material in his socks out of the Toronto lab.

    California has got way more sunshine than NY. I really doubt that the double whammy has yet to hit there, cowering in place/anti-social distancing or no, which is the wrong way to go to build herd immunity and climb out of this hole.

    I don’t see a genuine medical pandemic in the numbers

    Nor does anyone else. Though a few of the hotspots may have given that appearance to some.

    What we can see in some places is a spike in deaths attributable to the Panic and not to the Virus. It is now clear this happened in London and New York City, and probably elsewhere. The countries that maintained their composure and resisted the media-directed Panic had no such spike.

  118. @utu
    Age depended IFR values from "Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis", Modi et al.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2.full.pdf

    https://i.ibb.co/QHbnQQ5/Table1.png

    Population IFR for populations with different age demographics can be calculated from this table.

    So, for people up to about age 59, a typical flu death rate. 60-69, a very bad flu death rate. Over 69, a catastrophe.

    It’s a shame we didn’t know to lock down elderly people in early March.

    • Replies: @res

    So, for people up to about age 59, a typical flu death rate. 60-69, a very bad flu death rate. Over 69, a catastrophe.
     
    I don't think that is the right way to look at it. Take a look at the right panel of Figure 4 on page 8. They look at 10 year age buckets and what we see is a fairly linear (on a semi-log plot) decline in IFR from 10% at 90+ down to 0.01% at 30-39.

    Then look at a somewhat similar analysis for the flu in
    https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1741-7015-10-162

    https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2F1741-7015-10-162/MediaObjects/12916_2012_Article_639_Fig3_HTML.jpg

    You will see that the COVID-19 mortality rate seems to have a similar age dependence as the flu mortality rate. Just starting from a baseline about 10x higher (an important difference!).

    It’s a shame we didn’t know to lock down elderly people in early March.
     
    Are you joking? That has seemed clear for a long time.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess#Deaths
  119. @TomSchmidt
    So, for people up to about age 59, a typical flu death rate. 60-69, a very bad flu death rate. Over 69, a catastrophe.

    It's a shame we didn't know to lock down elderly people in early March.

    So, for people up to about age 59, a typical flu death rate. 60-69, a very bad flu death rate. Over 69, a catastrophe.

    I don’t think that is the right way to look at it. Take a look at the right panel of Figure 4 on page 8. They look at 10 year age buckets and what we see is a fairly linear (on a semi-log plot) decline in IFR from 10% at 90+ down to 0.01% at 30-39.

    Then look at a somewhat similar analysis for the flu in
    https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1741-7015-10-162

    You will see that the COVID-19 mortality rate seems to have a similar age dependence as the flu mortality rate. Just starting from a baseline about 10x higher (an important difference!).

    It’s a shame we didn’t know to lock down elderly people in early March.

    Are you joking? That has seemed clear for a long time.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess#Deaths

    • Replies: @utu
    https://i.ibb.co/G0bBt5p/IFR-Italy.png

    Note: (1) Not exactly exponential, (2) IFR doubling age for <70 is shorter than flu ( 7.15 years in Canada in 1999), (3) Mortality rates in your link are not IFR, so we can't really compare.
  120. @res

    So, for people up to about age 59, a typical flu death rate. 60-69, a very bad flu death rate. Over 69, a catastrophe.
     
    I don't think that is the right way to look at it. Take a look at the right panel of Figure 4 on page 8. They look at 10 year age buckets and what we see is a fairly linear (on a semi-log plot) decline in IFR from 10% at 90+ down to 0.01% at 30-39.

    Then look at a somewhat similar analysis for the flu in
    https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1741-7015-10-162

    https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2F1741-7015-10-162/MediaObjects/12916_2012_Article_639_Fig3_HTML.jpg

    You will see that the COVID-19 mortality rate seems to have a similar age dependence as the flu mortality rate. Just starting from a baseline about 10x higher (an important difference!).

    It’s a shame we didn’t know to lock down elderly people in early March.
     
    Are you joking? That has seemed clear for a long time.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess#Deaths

    Note: (1) Not exactly exponential, (2) IFR doubling age for <70 is shorter than flu ( 7.15 years in Canada in 1999), (3) Mortality rates in your link are not IFR, so we can't really compare.

  121. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail
    Thanks. The RKI's estimate appears to be that R0 in Germany peaked at some point within the 72-hour window of late-PM March 8 to late-PM March 11. It fell below 3.0 already as of the morning of March 12; below 2.0 by about late in the day on March 14; it was below 1.5 as of the morning of March 17; it fell below 1.0 on the morning of March 20.

    Therefore I would suggest the period of interest is the nine days between March 9 to 17. If there are measures taken by the government or by people that reduces R0 in this time, they would be found here.

    In your link to the Google mobility data, I see, for example, that visits to mass-transit begin to majorly decline beginning the weekend of March 14-15. Workplace visits start to steadily way down starting Monday March 16 and were down by 40% the usual rate by Friday March 20. It looks like visits to "retail and recreation" start to go way down also about March 16, reaching ca.70% below normal by March 21.

    Interestingl enoughy, each one of these declines in observed activity post-dates the 95%-confidence interval for when the R0 peak was hit (which is, at latest, late evening of March 11).

    There are a lot of variables here, and there is probably no doubt people changing their behaviors in this way contributed to the lower R0, but we can conclude is that the full-shutdown order, which was announced March 22 and effective March 23, was unnecessary, a clear case of a political overreaction to the lagging indicator of "confirmed new coronavirus test-positive cases" and the majorly lagging indicator of coronavirus-positive deaths.

    See another comment above for more thoughts:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/new-estimate-of-population-fatality-rate-in-bergamo-province-0-57/#comment-3855558

    I wrote a full-length investigation on the decline in the transmission rate in Germany and changes in observed behavior, expecting to find some change that predated the beginning of the decline, i.e., social distancing.

    We know the decline to R0=1.0 predated the Lockdown order by several days, but you’d think there would be some obvious causal mechanism that started driving it down in the first place, e.g. the popular theory that riding mass transit was to blame.

    When comparing the Robert Koch Institute’s calculated “R0” with measured changes in behavior, the surprising conclusion is that the beginning of the decline appears to have predated changes in behavior, suggesting the beginning of the herd immunity process was well underway:

    Against the Corona Panic, Pt. VIII: The coronavirus transmission rate (“R0”) fell long before the Lockdown orders; What caused the decline?

    Thanks to J A A and Krataklostes for ideas.

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