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L.A. Times’ crime reporter Jill Leovy’s 2015 book Ghettoside (which I suspect might have started out spelled Ghettocide) is a combination of social science and true crime reporting about a blond LAPD detective with an outstanding track record of getting black witnesses to murders in South-Central to talk. (This would be a good role for Brad Pitt.)

Leovy’s argument is that high rates of unclosed (unsolved) murders encourage more murders. For the police to close more murder cases would reduce the number of murders subsequently committed.

Jeff Asher, a New Orleans analyst who tries to bring baseball statistics approaches (e.g., Moneyball) to crime statistics, writes in the NYT:

The Missing Numbers in Preventing Murders

Conventional wisdom says solving murders reduces murders, but so far there’s no data to prove that.

By Jeff Asher and Ben Horwitz
Aug. 28, 2019

A well-established belief in criminology is that the certainty of being caught is a more powerful deterrent for a criminal than the potential punishment.

So it stands to reason that improving the murder clearance rate — the percentage of murders that are solved — should decrease the murders in an area over time.

Perhaps surprisingly, the numbers don’t back up that idea.

A look at the data shows no relationship between a change in clearance rates from year to year and a change in murder at either a city or national level. And yet the conventional wisdom about the importance of solving murders to reduce murders may still be true.

In part, this disconnect may exist because clearance rates aren’t great statistics to begin with.

Thomas Abt, a senior research fellow at Harvard and the author of “Bleeding Out,” a new book on reducing gun violence, points to three reasons that solving murder might be connected to reducing murder:

“First, incapacitation — killers can’t kill again if they’re behind bars. Second, deterrence — if getting caught is more likely, potential killers will think twice. Third, retribution — if killers are brought to justice by the state, then friends and associates of the victim won’t be tempted to take the law into their own hands.”

One problem is that the data are a mess. Crime statistics aren’t something that Americans care about like they really care about baseball statistics.

Mr. Abt said in an email: “We don’t have much evidence showing that clearing cases reduces homicides not because it isn’t true, but because it hasn’t been carefully studied. I expect that if we did the research, the relationship between more clearances and less murders would become apparent.” …

The Washington Post reviewed almost 55,000 murders in America’s largest cities over the last decade. Nearly 26,000 of those murders were unsolved, and about 75 percent of the victims were African-Americans in these unsolved cases.

Snitches Get Stitches is not a common saying among non-black Americans.

In Jill Leovy’s book “Ghettoside,” she describes much of the cause of murder in America as “a problem of human suffering caused by the absence of a state monopoly on violence,” meaning that people who lack service from the police wind up policing themselves.

So Leovy concentrates on what LAPD detective, a Cliff Booth-type whom South-Central types tend to find themselves trusting when he tells them he’ll make sure they don’t get murdered in turn. But it’s hard to scale this up.

There’s another reason to wonder about the granularity and trustworthiness of the available data. In most cases when a shot is fired, there is no victim. A person is struck by gunfire in only a small fraction of all gunfire episodes, and fewer than a third of all shooting victims die (in most cities for which data is available).

If a police department solves only fatal shootings at a high percentage, a significant segment of gun violence will remain unsolved. Perhaps understandably, more effort is placed on solving fatal rather than nonfatal shootings, but each may be equally important, because whether an individual shooting ends in a death (or not) is largely a matter of luck.

Moreover, a non-lethal shooting might lead to even more shootings than a lethal one in that the one person with the most reason to want to avenge the shooting for reasons of vengeance and self-defense, the victim, is still around to shoot the shooter.

Our society needs more white guy data analysts to do for crime what they did for baseball since Bill James. But, of course, one reason so much white male IQ points have been expended upon baseball analytics since the 1970s is because it’s a safe space where white males can’t get in trouble for being white and male.

 
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  1. Our society needs more white guy data analysts to do for crime what they did for baseball since Bill James.

    Why not start with James himself?

    Bill James, True-Crime Obsessive, on the Genre’s Enduring Importance

    • Replies: @David In TN
    @Reg Cæsar

    I was unimpressed by James' True Crime book.

  2. Wasn’t that the Kenyan’s Policy in Eastern Ukraine and Syria? Lot’s of innocent Orthodox Russian Christians in the Eastern Ukraine…..Lot’s of innocent Syrian People in Syria……And despite this….the Kenyan is worshipped by the majority nonwhite Democratic Party Voting Bloc….Can you believe it….And the Kenyan’s crimes were on a vastly larger scale…..

    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    @War for Blair Mountain

    "And the Kenyan’s crimes were on a vastly larger scale….."
    and he was awarded a Nobel before starting, to provide cover.

  3. Thomas Abt, a senior research fellow at Harvard and the author of “Bleeding Out,” a new book on reducing gun violence, points to three reasons that solving murder might be connected to reducing murder:

    “First, incapacitation — killers can’t kill again if they’re behind bars. Second, deterrence — if getting caught is more likely, potential killers will think twice. Third, retribution — if killers are brought to justice by the state, then friends and associates of the victim won’t be tempted to take the law into their own hands.”

    He’s ignorant. What he calls “retribution” is just a form of deterrence. There’s specific deterrence and general deterrence, and his “retribution” is general deterrence. Retribution is intended to make the society feel good, not to prevent crime.

    This is first-year law-school stuff. Rationales for intervention in the lives of criminals: 1. rehabilitation; 2. incapacitation; 3. deterrence (specific and general); 4. retribution.

    • Replies: @Dave from Oz
    @ben tillman


    @3 - "He’s ignorant. What he calls “retribution” is just a form of deterrence. "
     
    Not exactly. It's worthwhile picking a different crime - let's say fraud that steals your grandma's life savings.

    Deterrence means discouraging people from commiting fraud. Whether the original offender or would-be fraudsters in general.

    Retribution means discouraging granny's relatives from assaulting or killing the fraudster. It is about satisfying the human need for vengeance. The state avenges, rather than individuals doing it. This is why the British image of Justice carries a sword and a shield. The shield is not to protect the innocent - it's to protect the guilty. Once justice is served, the matter is concluded. This is why people plead guilty before a court - they are seeking the protection of the court from the excessive vengeance of those they have wronged.

    And let's not throw up our hands in horror at the very idea of vengeance. The impulse to avenge a wrong - whether done to ourselves or to others - is a central part of what makes us a social species. The two are linked, of course. Vengeance is done in order to deter.

    As C S Lewis points out: the retribution part of justice is terribly important, otherwise we are just engaging in social conditioning by the state. It would be wrong to punish someone to condition them to not steal anymore unless they deserved it.

    Replies: @ben tillman

    , @Kronos
    @ben tillman

    “He’s ignorant. What he calls “retribution” is just a form of deterrence. There’s specific deterrence and general deterrence, and his “retribution” is general deterrence. Retribution is intended to make the society feel good, not to prevent crime.”

    Yeah but in Ghettoside book many of the victims are targeted by accident. They mistake one black guy to belonging to a different neighborhood/gang. “Where yo from! Where YO from BANG BANG!”

    The book revolves around the killed black son of a LAPD officer who was mistaken to belong to a certain gang. (While the author states he wasn’t part of a gang, she lightly hints that he was going down that path.)

    , @95Theses
    @ben tillman

    I’m no law expert, but it’s a pity that law students aren’t required to read C.S. Lewis’ famous essay, The Humanitarian Theory of Punishment.

    Some excerpts:


    ... According to the Humanitarian theory, to punish a man because he deserves it, and as much as he deserves, is mere revenge, and, therefore, barbarous and immoral. It is maintained that the only legitimate motives for punishing are the desire to deter others by example or to mend the criminal. When this theory is combined, as frequently happens, with the belief that all crime is more or less pathological, the idea of mending tails off into that of healing or curing and punishment becomes therapeutic. Thus it appears at first sight that we have passed from the harsh and self-righteous notion of giving the wicked their deserts to the charitable and enlightened one of tending the psychologically sick. What could be more amiable? One little point which is taken for granted in this theory needs, however, to be made explicit. The things done to the criminal, even if they are called cures, will be just as compulsory as they were in the old days when we called them punishments. If a tendency to steal can be cured by psychotherapy, the thief will no doubt be forced to undergo the treatment. Otherwise, society cannot continue.

    ... If the justification of exemplary punishment is not to be based on desert but solely on its efficacy as a deterrent, it is not absolutely necessary that the man we punish should even have committed the crime. The deterrent effect demands that the public should draw the moral, “If we do such an act we shall suffer like that man”. The punishment of a man actually guilty whom the public think innocent will not have the desired effect; the punishment of a man actually innocent will, provided the public think him guilty. But every modern State has powers which make it easy to fake a trial. When a victim is urgently needed for exemplary purposes and a guilty victim cannot be found, all the purposes of deterrence will be equally served by the punishment (call it “cure” if you prefer) of an innocent victim, provided that the public can be cheated into thinking him guilty. It is no use to ask me why I assume that our rulers will be so wicked. The punishment of an innocent, that is, an undeserving, man is wicked only if we grant the traditional view that righteous punishment means deserved punishment.

    https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1271&context=irp
     

  4. Leovy, Asher, Horwitz, and Abt — could we have a say in what happens in our country?

    At 2% of the population, Jews should constitute (by chance) 4 out of 4 people in one of six million instances. Yet it seems that it happens more than one hundred thousand times that often.

    • Agree: MBlanc46, Charon, donut
    • LOL: IHTG
    • Replies: @Nicholas Stix
    @ben tillman

    Abt--Abbot, in English. What a classically Jewish name!

  5. I’ve watched Detroit TV news stations for decades, and from what I can see, most Detroit residents take shootings in stride, as long as innocent people aren’t killed.

    In the right circumstances, this could be a money-maker for the city. Cue the video!

    Which cannot be found on YouTube.

    Anyway, there’s this great episode of the classic Sixties series The Avengers. A quaint little English village named Little Storping hires itself out as a venue for targeted killings. Pay the town, invite your foe and shoot him. Very British.

    Appropriately, the episode is titled “Murderville”.

    • Replies: @RobUK
    @Anon7


    Anyway, there’s this great episode of the classic Sixties series The Avengers. A quaint little English village named Little Storping hires itself out as a venue for targeted killings. Pay the town, invite your foe and shoot him. Very British.

    Appropriately, the episode is titled “Murderville”.
     
    I recognised the village the moment I saw it in that episode, Aldbury.
  6. So, in other words….Broken Windows works. Police and prosecutors should stop concentrating on the “big score” of a local crime boss and just lean hard and heavy and throw the book at the low-level guys. Generals without soliders are just dudes with fancy jackets. Every chief needs braves to go do the fighting. Etc.

    Bill Bratton is proved correct yet again.

    Of course, one major reason Broken Windows isn’t implemented as thoroughly as possible nationwide is that police and prosecutors who are career-minded want to land a big fish arrest—better to make their careers with. Heck, Giuliani himself, who pushed Broken Windows as mayor, made his career as a prosecutor busting big-name Mafia bosses in Manhattan. Picking up low-level dudes doesn’t land you on the front page.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    @R.G. Camara

    Also, we now know broken windows is racist.

    , @Nicholas Stix
    @R.G. Camara

    "Broken Windows Policing" is a sham, and Bill Bratton is a proven fraud.

    https://nicholasstixuncensored.blogspot.com/2019/02/everyone-knows-that-crime-went-down-for.html

    Replies: @Bugg, @Forbes, @Kronos, @Hibernian

    , @David In TN
    @R.G. Camara

    Politically ambitious prosecutors are always hunting for Tom Wolfe's Great White Defendant. Mafia/Organized Crime types are a favorite target.

  7. You know what reduces murder rates? Less negros.

    • Agree: Kylie
    • Replies: @Bob
    @MikeatMikedotMike


    You know what reduces murder rates? Less negros.
     
    They’re working on it but it’s a catch-22 situation.
  8. Anyway, the black community, like most crime-plagued communities historically, have a small percentage of dudes (10-20% at most) committing 80% of the crime. Most blacks live in terror of the small percentage of thugs, who are psychotic and inhuman.

    I saw one Hoarders episode where a black tennis teacher and his retired mother lived in squalor, their entire Bronx apartment overstuffed with their hoarding. Then I noted what neighborhood they lived in (very crime ridden) and how the guy was a tennis instructor and definitely not a big tough dude. I realized that these two decent folk basically barricaded themselves in their apartment when they didn’t have to go out for food, and the Hoarding was just their way of psychologically “protecting” themselves against the black thugs who terrorized the entire neighborhood. Very sad.

    • Replies: @bartolo1
    @R.G. Camara

    Assuming those figures you quote were true 10-20 percent and the 80 percent nonsense....living in terror of what you say is a small percentage of psychotic, inhuman brothers.

    Which is just total virtue signaling in my opinion. But say it is true. First off 10-20 percent psychotic and inhuman is not a small percentage of any neighborhood sanity exist.

    The "TALK" is not based on fear of 10-20 percent of psychotic neighbors, it is based on police.

    The lie that blacks refuse to let go of.

    Hoarding as it afflicts black Americans.........needs to get with the game.

    Fear of police is what keeps them inside all day hoarding all the crap that hoarders, hoard.

    Hoarders hoard because they have a misfire in the noggin.

    If you want to create some make believe world where black people are becoming hoarders due to fear of other black people.

    Go ahead. Not true. But flip the script and make it fear of police and sell it to HBO.

    , @Paleo Liberal
    @R.G. Camara

    There are people blaming Biden for the laws which led to the mass incarceration of blacks.

    What they tend to forget is that it was law abiding blacks who demanded these laws in the first place.

    My adopted city of Madison has had a number of law abiding blacks move here from Chicago or Milwaukee to escape their sociopathic neighbors. Now some of their sociopathic former neighbors are coming to Madison as well.

    One working class African American gentleman lectured me recently on how the liberal judges of Madison were failing to protect society. Thing is, it is the current generation of self-proclaimed black leaders who are now demanding the sociopaths be coddled. For example, black leaders will disrupt school board meetings to demand that “racist” police officers be removed from the high schools in Madison. One even wrote an article comparing the “racist” police officers to Nazis. From reading that article, one would never guess that these supposedly white supremicist cops are really black.

  9. “Snitches Get Stitches is not a common saying among non-black Americans.”

    But, “I’ll make ’em an offer they can’t refuse” is a common saying among non-black Americans (or was for a certain generation).

    Suppose now it would be “don’t be a dumbass, dude, or you’ll wind up like Columbine.”

  10. There is that top NYC detective who fives time managed to convince an eyewitness to come forward like a public spirited citizen and solve a murder case. Unfortunately it was the same star witness each time for five separate and unrelated murder cases
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_N._Scarcella#Use_of_Teresa_Gomez

    In those areas it’s all gangs, and an individual shooter being put away makes little difference because the motive is often not even personal and someone from the queue moves right into the hierarchy place vacated. I think the dropping of charges (often stemming from parole violations) that a witness desperate to avoid prison is facing (law abiding people are thin on the ground around murders) is the strongest motive to testify. Basically, the cops know who the local shooters are so they can suggest the names, and why do 5 years on a parole violation when you can give a the local gang-star life.

    Difficult to hide not being sent to prison or a relative not being. The gangs know who the snitches and their relatives are even if they don’t testify. One of their members being put away for a long sentence for dealing ect probably is the spark for many, many gang related murders. On the other hand just repeating a rumor to someone that they are a snitch can get you killed as with Nipsey Hussle

    So Leovy concentrates on what LAPD detective, a Cliff Booth-type whom South-Central types tend to find themselves trusting when he tells them he’ll make sure they don’t get murdered in turn. But it’s hard to scale this up.

    One wonders if he actually protects them, or just convinces them he will; ten years later how many of those witnesses or their families have not have had something really bad happen to them? I think a lot of the witnesses willing to take the chance would be desperate because they were facing prison time themselves, or have a dog in the fight as relatives or friends of the deceased.

    • Replies: @Bugg
    @Sean

    Was in the Brooklyn DA's office during some of the time when Scarcella's cases were handled. Late 1980s/early 1990s was a time of well over 2000 murders every year in NYC, and many of those were in Brooklyn North, the area Scarcella and his partner, Steven Chmil, worked. it was almost all one black or Latino guy shooting another over ghetto nonsense. Both the DA's office and NYPD were only too happy to close the cases out even when it was well-known they did some crazy stuff to get witnesses to testify. In one instance took a witness out of jail and let him go bang his girlfriend unsupervised on the way to court while they waited in the car.

    House of cards fell down when one white junkie defendant accused of murdering a rabbi won his appeal about his confession being coerced. Having been in the room when a murderer confessed on video after being read his rights, I find the whole podcast genre of evil detectives coercing confessions usually laughable. But also think it's fair to note Brooklyn North homicides at that time were nothing but results of arguments among and between drug dealers, junkies, and other ghetto folk.And the volume; multiple homicides all the time. One precinct, the 75th in East New York, was a killing field. They might not have had such a run of closures in Manhattan (think the murderous Wonderbread nonethnic white people of "Law & Order", but there's never been that much murder like that in NY!) Forensic analysis was primitive until very recently, and detectives in such environments were more inclined to get a confession or a even bad witness than hunt around for data which would not be correctly analyzed for months, if ever. Where Scarcella and Chmil went bad was too often going for the BS confession or crappy witness. Older smarter detectives would simply say the story is what the story is, and if that meant a murder goes unpunished, that's life.Those guys really did go out of their way to seek closure for the glory of it. And while nobody stands up for them now, their bosses back then had no problem with any of it.

    Replies: @Sean

  11. whether an individual shooting ends in a death (or not) is largely a matter of luck.

    Au contraire, mon fils, it’s largely a matter of skill.

    • Agree: GermanReader2
  12. @R.G. Camara
    Anyway, the black community, like most crime-plagued communities historically, have a small percentage of dudes (10-20% at most) committing 80% of the crime. Most blacks live in terror of the small percentage of thugs, who are psychotic and inhuman.

    I saw one Hoarders episode where a black tennis teacher and his retired mother lived in squalor, their entire Bronx apartment overstuffed with their hoarding. Then I noted what neighborhood they lived in (very crime ridden) and how the guy was a tennis instructor and definitely not a big tough dude. I realized that these two decent folk basically barricaded themselves in their apartment when they didn't have to go out for food, and the Hoarding was just their way of psychologically "protecting" themselves against the black thugs who terrorized the entire neighborhood. Very sad.

    Replies: @bartolo1, @Paleo Liberal

    Assuming those figures you quote were true 10-20 percent and the 80 percent nonsense….living in terror of what you say is a small percentage of psychotic, inhuman brothers.

    Which is just total virtue signaling in my opinion. But say it is true. First off 10-20 percent psychotic and inhuman is not a small percentage of any neighborhood sanity exist.

    The “TALK” is not based on fear of 10-20 percent of psychotic neighbors, it is based on police.

    The lie that blacks refuse to let go of.

    Hoarding as it afflicts black Americans………needs to get with the game.

    Fear of police is what keeps them inside all day hoarding all the crap that hoarders, hoard.

    Hoarders hoard because they have a misfire in the noggin.

    If you want to create some make believe world where black people are becoming hoarders due to fear of other black people.

    Go ahead. Not true. But flip the script and make it fear of police and sell it to HBO.

  13. That article gets everything wrong about everything.

    the cause of murder in America as “a problem of human suffering caused by the absence of a state monopoly on violence,” meaning that people who lack service from the police wind up policing themselves.

    Really? How naive can you be?

  14. @ben tillman

    Thomas Abt, a senior research fellow at Harvard and the author of “Bleeding Out,” a new book on reducing gun violence, points to three reasons that solving murder might be connected to reducing murder:

    “First, incapacitation — killers can’t kill again if they’re behind bars. Second, deterrence — if getting caught is more likely, potential killers will think twice. Third, retribution — if killers are brought to justice by the state, then friends and associates of the victim won’t be tempted to take the law into their own hands.”
     

    He's ignorant. What he calls "retribution" is just a form of deterrence. There's specific deterrence and general deterrence, and his "retribution" is general deterrence. Retribution is intended to make the society feel good, not to prevent crime.

    This is first-year law-school stuff. Rationales for intervention in the lives of criminals: 1. rehabilitation; 2. incapacitation; 3. deterrence (specific and general); 4. retribution.

    Replies: @Dave from Oz, @Kronos, @95Theses

    @3 – “He’s ignorant. What he calls “retribution” is just a form of deterrence. “

    Not exactly. It’s worthwhile picking a different crime – let’s say fraud that steals your grandma’s life savings.

    Deterrence means discouraging people from commiting fraud. Whether the original offender or would-be fraudsters in general.

    Retribution means discouraging granny’s relatives from assaulting or killing the fraudster. It is about satisfying the human need for vengeance. The state avenges, rather than individuals doing it. This is why the British image of Justice carries a sword and a shield. The shield is not to protect the innocent – it’s to protect the guilty. Once justice is served, the matter is concluded. This is why people plead guilty before a court – they are seeking the protection of the court from the excessive vengeance of those they have wronged.

    And let’s not throw up our hands in horror at the very idea of vengeance. The impulse to avenge a wrong – whether done to ourselves or to others – is a central part of what makes us a social species. The two are linked, of course. Vengeance is done in order to deter.

    As C S Lewis points out: the retribution part of justice is terribly important, otherwise we are just engaging in social conditioning by the state. It would be wrong to punish someone to condition them to not steal anymore unless they deserved it.

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    @Dave from Oz


    Retribution means discouraging granny’s relatives from assaulting or killing the fraudster.
     
    No, it doesn't, as I already explained. You're conflating deterrence and retribution.
  15. @R.G. Camara
    So, in other words....Broken Windows works. Police and prosecutors should stop concentrating on the "big score" of a local crime boss and just lean hard and heavy and throw the book at the low-level guys. Generals without soliders are just dudes with fancy jackets. Every chief needs braves to go do the fighting. Etc.

    Bill Bratton is proved correct yet again.

    Of course, one major reason Broken Windows isn't implemented as thoroughly as possible nationwide is that police and prosecutors who are career-minded want to land a big fish arrest---better to make their careers with. Heck, Giuliani himself, who pushed Broken Windows as mayor, made his career as a prosecutor busting big-name Mafia bosses in Manhattan. Picking up low-level dudes doesn't land you on the front page.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Nicholas Stix, @David In TN

    Also, we now know broken windows is racist.

    • LOL: Hibernian
  16. To leaven this dark, moody piece, let me suggest having a look at The MVP Factory which is basically about what has been going on inside baseball after moneyball was played out (around 2010). OK, the authors are not of the caliber of Michael Lewis but it’s still interesting.

  17. Are there low murder rate African cities? How do they police themselves?

  18. @R.G. Camara
    So, in other words....Broken Windows works. Police and prosecutors should stop concentrating on the "big score" of a local crime boss and just lean hard and heavy and throw the book at the low-level guys. Generals without soliders are just dudes with fancy jackets. Every chief needs braves to go do the fighting. Etc.

    Bill Bratton is proved correct yet again.

    Of course, one major reason Broken Windows isn't implemented as thoroughly as possible nationwide is that police and prosecutors who are career-minded want to land a big fish arrest---better to make their careers with. Heck, Giuliani himself, who pushed Broken Windows as mayor, made his career as a prosecutor busting big-name Mafia bosses in Manhattan. Picking up low-level dudes doesn't land you on the front page.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Nicholas Stix, @David In TN

    “Broken Windows Policing” is a sham, and Bill Bratton is a proven fraud.

    https://nicholasstixuncensored.blogspot.com/2019/02/everyone-knows-that-crime-went-down-for.html

    • Replies: @Bugg
    @Nicholas Stix

    Don't think it's a total fraud. But there's an element of ignoring other factors. Bratton and his ilk are akin to witch doctor taking credit for the sun coming back after an eclipse. A few very big factors get left out by the Compstat nonsense. The Freakonomics guys posited the drop in crime corresponded quite closely with a 12-15 years prior time when abortion became very available and free, such that there were significantly fewer African and Latino children . For some time, there are more black fetuses aborted than born live in NYC. Also discounts that the street drug of choice went from cocaine to opioids.

    , @Forbes
    @Nicholas Stix

    Pretty hard to fake the stats on a 90% decline in murder in NYC. While bullet-ridden dead bodies don't talk, they scream murder.

    Replies: @Nicholas Stix

    , @Kronos
    @Nicholas Stix

    I followed the link, great stuff!

    , @Hibernian
    @Nicholas Stix

    Mr. Stix, fakestats are rampant when leftists are in the driver's seat and crime is skyrocketing. They are of a piece with the excuses and rationalizations given by the Left for criminal behavior, and the resulting refusal to take crime seriously. I know, I live in Chicago. I've seen the results of the polar opposite of broken windows policing, call it crime historian policing, in my neighborhood.

    It would be better to say that the unreliability of crime statistics kept by police departments under liberal and moderate (there are no conservative) municipal administrations makes the statistical comparison of the results of various policing strategies difficult if not impossible.

  19. “Our society needs more white guy data analysts”

    Unlike MLB the government does not invite analysis and does not share or even competently collect data.

    On the subject of sports, Round 4 of the US Open America’s honor is being upheld by Black and Asian women. One of the women, Taylor Townsend, was a victim of fat-shaming by USTA. I hope she wins it, all 5′ 7″ and 170lbs of her.

    “55,000 murders in America’s largest cities over the last decade. Nearly 26,000 of those murders were unsolved” Maybe Seth Rich not murdered by the Clintons / Deep State.

  20. When I lived in a black neighborhood, it seemed to me that although most people are not involved in criminal activity, there is a level of tolerance for it that I cannot imagine whites putting up with. People would tsk at the behavior of so-and-so’s son or whatever, but they wouldn’t actually band together and make it clear that they’d be calling the cops at the first sign of trouble to keep the bad actors in line. The attitude towards a lot of the tit-for-tat shootings in the area was that it was just scum taking out other scum.

    A lot of this indifference to law enforcement can be chalked up to a fairly high percentage of the young men (ie people’s sons or grandsons) being involved in petty crime and my neighbors didn’t want to see them get in trouble…then generational damage to black communities was pretty obvious. The older residents aged 60 and up worked or had worked until retirement, about half of the people in their 30s and 40s had jobs and the other half had some kind of criminal record and worked intermittently if at all, and there was only one kid under 30 that I knew had a job. Most of the older people were married, but there was only one household in the entire neighborhood with a married 30ish couple with children, and a whole lot of grandparents taking care of the grandchildren.

    • Agree: 95Theses
    • Replies: @E. Rekshun
    @Arclight

    about half of the people in their 30s and 40s had jobs and the other half had some kind of criminal record and worked intermittently if at all

    I've sometimes wondered how these lifelong unemployed men support themselves in old age. Aside from SSDI, they can't collect social security or Medicare and, surely, have no IRAs, 401Ks, or corporate pensions.

    Replies: @donvonburg, @William Badwhite

    , @95Theses
    @Arclight

    A couple years before I moved away from Columbus’ westside Hilltop neighborhood, a property owner had setup one of his houses for a call girl to work out of. Not even a week later that “business” was gone – and only because a throng of about 150 neighbors (all White people) had gathered outside the house in the evening hours protesting the very existence of the new establishment ... and drawing the attention of a couple news stations in the process who covered the demonstration.

    Oh, and this was not what you would call an “upscale” neighborhood. Just your average law-abiding White community.

  21. Where’s Wambaugh to write a true crime story about this when you need him? Although, I guess if he’s still alive (and mentally capable), he’s in his mid 80s. But he’d have the nads to not give a damn. Choir Boys, New Centurions, and the first non fiction of his, The Onion Field were great. His later stuff faltered, but he was still better than most crime/mystery writers.

    • Replies: @95Theses
    @South Texas Guy

    The Onion Field is only one of two films I’ve ever viewed in which I felt I was really there watching the horror of the murder scene unfold. The hair was standing up straight on every inch of me.

    From what I remember reading at the time, each scene in that film took place where it had actually happened – aside from the onion field itself (as I recall only because the field had since been developed).

  22. In Charlotte the judges are so lenient because of supposed history of racism they let even violent offenders out on bail with an ankle tracker and are surprised that the murder rate is approaching that of Detroit and Baltimore.

  23. @MikeatMikedotMike
    You know what reduces murder rates? Less negros.

    Replies: @Bob

    You know what reduces murder rates? Less negros.

    They’re working on it but it’s a catch-22 situation.

  24. @Sean
    There is that top NYC detective who fives time managed to convince an eyewitness to come forward like a public spirited citizen and solve a murder case. Unfortunately it was the same star witness each time for five separate and unrelated murder cases
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_N._Scarcella#Use_of_Teresa_Gomez


    In those areas it's all gangs, and an individual shooter being put away makes little difference because the motive is often not even personal and someone from the queue moves right into the hierarchy place vacated. I think the dropping of charges (often stemming from parole violations) that a witness desperate to avoid prison is facing (law abiding people are thin on the ground around murders) is the strongest motive to testify. Basically, the cops know who the local shooters are so they can suggest the names, and why do 5 years on a parole violation when you can give a the local gang-star life.

    Difficult to hide not being sent to prison or a relative not being. The gangs know who the snitches and their relatives are even if they don't testify. One of their members being put away for a long sentence for dealing ect probably is the spark for many, many gang related murders. On the other hand just repeating a rumor to someone that they are a snitch can get you killed as with Nipsey Hussle


    So Leovy concentrates on what LAPD detective, a Cliff Booth-type whom South-Central types tend to find themselves trusting when he tells them he’ll make sure they don’t get murdered in turn. But it’s hard to scale this up.
     
    One wonders if he actually protects them, or just convinces them he will; ten years later how many of those witnesses or their families have not have had something really bad happen to them? I think a lot of the witnesses willing to take the chance would be desperate because they were facing prison time themselves, or have a dog in the fight as relatives or friends of the deceased.

    Replies: @Bugg

    Was in the Brooklyn DA’s office during some of the time when Scarcella’s cases were handled. Late 1980s/early 1990s was a time of well over 2000 murders every year in NYC, and many of those were in Brooklyn North, the area Scarcella and his partner, Steven Chmil, worked. it was almost all one black or Latino guy shooting another over ghetto nonsense. Both the DA’s office and NYPD were only too happy to close the cases out even when it was well-known they did some crazy stuff to get witnesses to testify. In one instance took a witness out of jail and let him go bang his girlfriend unsupervised on the way to court while they waited in the car.

    House of cards fell down when one white junkie defendant accused of murdering a rabbi won his appeal about his confession being coerced. Having been in the room when a murderer confessed on video after being read his rights, I find the whole podcast genre of evil detectives coercing confessions usually laughable. But also think it’s fair to note Brooklyn North homicides at that time were nothing but results of arguments among and between drug dealers, junkies, and other ghetto folk.And the volume; multiple homicides all the time. One precinct, the 75th in East New York, was a killing field. They might not have had such a run of closures in Manhattan (think the murderous Wonderbread nonethnic white people of “Law & Order”, but there’s never been that much murder like that in NY!) Forensic analysis was primitive until very recently, and detectives in such environments were more inclined to get a confession or a even bad witness than hunt around for data which would not be correctly analyzed for months, if ever. Where Scarcella and Chmil went bad was too often going for the BS confession or crappy witness. Older smarter detectives would simply say the story is what the story is, and if that meant a murder goes unpunished, that’s life.Those guys really did go out of their way to seek closure for the glory of it. And while nobody stands up for them now, their bosses back then had no problem with any of it.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Bugg

    Yes, I suppose the background of a huge numbers of low profile homicides in their area and inadequate resources to fully investigate them needs to be considered when criticising the end results. He and his sidekick did find time and energy to train for and run marathons though. They really should have known better than to try using the fast and dirty methods on a crime as high profile as the killing of a rabbi. Such cases get looked at very closely.


    And while nobody stands up for them now, their bosses back then had no problem with any of it.
     
    Every boss tell you the way he wants the job done, but also demands results that cannot be got sticking to approved methods. And if you get caught he is sooo shocked at what you were doing to meet the targets.

    Wonderbread nonethnic white people of “Law & Order”
     
    Ha ha, yes especially the cops! Those actors played detectives with very non ethnic names; perhaps that was intended to convey they were doing the job in a very punctilious way. "Scarcella" does not sound very like a by-the-book Law and Order detective.
  25. @Nicholas Stix
    @R.G. Camara

    "Broken Windows Policing" is a sham, and Bill Bratton is a proven fraud.

    https://nicholasstixuncensored.blogspot.com/2019/02/everyone-knows-that-crime-went-down-for.html

    Replies: @Bugg, @Forbes, @Kronos, @Hibernian

    Don’t think it’s a total fraud. But there’s an element of ignoring other factors. Bratton and his ilk are akin to witch doctor taking credit for the sun coming back after an eclipse. A few very big factors get left out by the Compstat nonsense. The Freakonomics guys posited the drop in crime corresponded quite closely with a 12-15 years prior time when abortion became very available and free, such that there were significantly fewer African and Latino children . For some time, there are more black fetuses aborted than born live in NYC. Also discounts that the street drug of choice went from cocaine to opioids.

    • Agree: Sean, byrresheim
  26. @R.G. Camara
    Anyway, the black community, like most crime-plagued communities historically, have a small percentage of dudes (10-20% at most) committing 80% of the crime. Most blacks live in terror of the small percentage of thugs, who are psychotic and inhuman.

    I saw one Hoarders episode where a black tennis teacher and his retired mother lived in squalor, their entire Bronx apartment overstuffed with their hoarding. Then I noted what neighborhood they lived in (very crime ridden) and how the guy was a tennis instructor and definitely not a big tough dude. I realized that these two decent folk basically barricaded themselves in their apartment when they didn't have to go out for food, and the Hoarding was just their way of psychologically "protecting" themselves against the black thugs who terrorized the entire neighborhood. Very sad.

    Replies: @bartolo1, @Paleo Liberal

    There are people blaming Biden for the laws which led to the mass incarceration of blacks.

    What they tend to forget is that it was law abiding blacks who demanded these laws in the first place.

    My adopted city of Madison has had a number of law abiding blacks move here from Chicago or Milwaukee to escape their sociopathic neighbors. Now some of their sociopathic former neighbors are coming to Madison as well.

    One working class African American gentleman lectured me recently on how the liberal judges of Madison were failing to protect society. Thing is, it is the current generation of self-proclaimed black leaders who are now demanding the sociopaths be coddled. For example, black leaders will disrupt school board meetings to demand that “racist” police officers be removed from the high schools in Madison. One even wrote an article comparing the “racist” police officers to Nazis. From reading that article, one would never guess that these supposedly white supremicist cops are really black.

    • Agree: Arclight
  27. “Leovy’s argument is that high rates of unclosed (unsolved) murders encourage more murders.” As the kids say “well duh”. This is your Hun reminding you that “social science” is total BS.

  28. I find it weird that mass killings are automatically assumed to be the result of mental illness but for some reason killing under four people is not as if there is a logical reason for it. To murder even one person, somebody has to have something seriously wrong with them.

    Most of these ghetto shootings seem to be where a black or brown young man is pushed off the dominance hierarchy by another black or brown man and so he settles the score. That is not a sign of good mental health. The fortunate thing is that these guys are not used to handling firearms, thereby keeping the death tolls below four. There are not a lot of places in the inner city or suburbs where you can do target practice with a stolen gun. Compare that to these stone hearted white incels that are living in some video game where it is one shot one kill.

    • Replies: @Anounder
    @Prof. Woland

    Negroes commit the bulk of mass shootings per capita. The MSM fixating on some Hapa nerd shooting White girls doesn't make that not so.

    , @black sea
    @Prof. Woland


    To murder even one person, somebody has to have something seriously wrong with them.
     
    Murder is a killing which society defines as a heinous crime. However, society also accepts certain types of killing -- combat being the most obvious example -- as acceptable, and under certain circumstances, even heroic.

    I think that in some neighborhoods one drug dealer or gang leader gunning down another is viewed more as a matter of armed combat rather than murder, and is tolerated and perhaps even celebrated as such. I don't think that most people -- even normal people -- find it impossibly difficult to kill someone under circumstances that their society deems acceptable. After all, these aren't usually execution type murders. Generally, the killer points a gun at his adversary -- with adrenaline pumping -- pulls the trigger , and sees what happens.

  29. “My adopted city of Madison has had a number of law abiding blacks move here from Chicago or Milwaukee to escape their sociopathic neighbors. Now some of their sociopathic former neighbors are coming to Madison as well.”

    It’s a old old classic cycle. Even H.L. Mencken commented about this in his personal diary.

    “Sara tells me tonight that Gertrude is tired of keeping house in Hollins street, and proposes to take a flat with August, probably in the suburbs. It is a shock to hear of the old home being closed. Soon or late, of course, it must come, but it is still a shock. My inclination is to take over the house, lock it up, and keep it substantially as it is. I couldn’t bear to think of strangers living in it. The neighborhood is fast declining. Well, it has lasted the normal time for a city neighborhood—fifty years. There is no sign of a Negro invasion, but the neighbors grow progressively poorer and so can’t keep up their houses.

    – H.L. Mencken’s personal diary 1931

    And of course the neighborhood eventually did go black ghetto.

  30. @ben tillman

    Thomas Abt, a senior research fellow at Harvard and the author of “Bleeding Out,” a new book on reducing gun violence, points to three reasons that solving murder might be connected to reducing murder:

    “First, incapacitation — killers can’t kill again if they’re behind bars. Second, deterrence — if getting caught is more likely, potential killers will think twice. Third, retribution — if killers are brought to justice by the state, then friends and associates of the victim won’t be tempted to take the law into their own hands.”
     

    He's ignorant. What he calls "retribution" is just a form of deterrence. There's specific deterrence and general deterrence, and his "retribution" is general deterrence. Retribution is intended to make the society feel good, not to prevent crime.

    This is first-year law-school stuff. Rationales for intervention in the lives of criminals: 1. rehabilitation; 2. incapacitation; 3. deterrence (specific and general); 4. retribution.

    Replies: @Dave from Oz, @Kronos, @95Theses

    “He’s ignorant. What he calls “retribution” is just a form of deterrence. There’s specific deterrence and general deterrence, and his “retribution” is general deterrence. Retribution is intended to make the society feel good, not to prevent crime.”

    Yeah but in Ghettoside book many of the victims are targeted by accident. They mistake one black guy to belonging to a different neighborhood/gang. “Where yo from! Where YO from BANG BANG!”

    The book revolves around the killed black son of a LAPD officer who was mistaken to belong to a certain gang. (While the author states he wasn’t part of a gang, she lightly hints that he was going down that path.)

  31. @Prof. Woland
    I find it weird that mass killings are automatically assumed to be the result of mental illness but for some reason killing under four people is not as if there is a logical reason for it. To murder even one person, somebody has to have something seriously wrong with them.

    Most of these ghetto shootings seem to be where a black or brown young man is pushed off the dominance hierarchy by another black or brown man and so he settles the score. That is not a sign of good mental health. The fortunate thing is that these guys are not used to handling firearms, thereby keeping the death tolls below four. There are not a lot of places in the inner city or suburbs where you can do target practice with a stolen gun. Compare that to these stone hearted white incels that are living in some video game where it is one shot one kill.

    Replies: @Anounder, @black sea

    Negroes commit the bulk of mass shootings per capita. The MSM fixating on some Hapa nerd shooting White girls doesn’t make that not so.

  32. >>…monopoly on violence…end up policing themselves.

    I suspect half the population would need to be police officers to keep all these New Americans from turning the place into the hell holes they came from. Perhaps with technology all other needs will be satisfied by robots freeing up our time to be police officers. Otherwise I do not see how we can afford it.

  33. @ben tillman

    Thomas Abt, a senior research fellow at Harvard and the author of “Bleeding Out,” a new book on reducing gun violence, points to three reasons that solving murder might be connected to reducing murder:

    “First, incapacitation — killers can’t kill again if they’re behind bars. Second, deterrence — if getting caught is more likely, potential killers will think twice. Third, retribution — if killers are brought to justice by the state, then friends and associates of the victim won’t be tempted to take the law into their own hands.”
     

    He's ignorant. What he calls "retribution" is just a form of deterrence. There's specific deterrence and general deterrence, and his "retribution" is general deterrence. Retribution is intended to make the society feel good, not to prevent crime.

    This is first-year law-school stuff. Rationales for intervention in the lives of criminals: 1. rehabilitation; 2. incapacitation; 3. deterrence (specific and general); 4. retribution.

    Replies: @Dave from Oz, @Kronos, @95Theses

    I’m no law expert, but it’s a pity that law students aren’t required to read C.S. Lewis’ famous essay, The Humanitarian Theory of Punishment.

    Some excerpts:

    … According to the Humanitarian theory, to punish a man because he deserves it, and as much as he deserves, is mere revenge, and, therefore, barbarous and immoral. It is maintained that the only legitimate motives for punishing are the desire to deter others by example or to mend the criminal. When this theory is combined, as frequently happens, with the belief that all crime is more or less pathological, the idea of mending tails off into that of healing or curing and punishment becomes therapeutic. Thus it appears at first sight that we have passed from the harsh and self-righteous notion of giving the wicked their deserts to the charitable and enlightened one of tending the psychologically sick. What could be more amiable? One little point which is taken for granted in this theory needs, however, to be made explicit. The things done to the criminal, even if they are called cures, will be just as compulsory as they were in the old days when we called them punishments. If a tendency to steal can be cured by psychotherapy, the thief will no doubt be forced to undergo the treatment. Otherwise, society cannot continue.

    … If the justification of exemplary punishment is not to be based on desert but solely on its efficacy as a deterrent, it is not absolutely necessary that the man we punish should even have committed the crime. The deterrent effect demands that the public should draw the moral, “If we do such an act we shall suffer like that man”. The punishment of a man actually guilty whom the public think innocent will not have the desired effect; the punishment of a man actually innocent will, provided the public think him guilty. But every modern State has powers which make it easy to fake a trial. When a victim is urgently needed for exemplary purposes and a guilty victim cannot be found, all the purposes of deterrence will be equally served by the punishment (call it “cure” if you prefer) of an innocent victim, provided that the public can be cheated into thinking him guilty. It is no use to ask me why I assume that our rulers will be so wicked. The punishment of an innocent, that is, an undeserving, man is wicked only if we grant the traditional view that righteous punishment means deserved punishment.

    https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1271&context=irp

  34. @Prof. Woland
    I find it weird that mass killings are automatically assumed to be the result of mental illness but for some reason killing under four people is not as if there is a logical reason for it. To murder even one person, somebody has to have something seriously wrong with them.

    Most of these ghetto shootings seem to be where a black or brown young man is pushed off the dominance hierarchy by another black or brown man and so he settles the score. That is not a sign of good mental health. The fortunate thing is that these guys are not used to handling firearms, thereby keeping the death tolls below four. There are not a lot of places in the inner city or suburbs where you can do target practice with a stolen gun. Compare that to these stone hearted white incels that are living in some video game where it is one shot one kill.

    Replies: @Anounder, @black sea

    To murder even one person, somebody has to have something seriously wrong with them.

    Murder is a killing which society defines as a heinous crime. However, society also accepts certain types of killing — combat being the most obvious example — as acceptable, and under certain circumstances, even heroic.

    I think that in some neighborhoods one drug dealer or gang leader gunning down another is viewed more as a matter of armed combat rather than murder, and is tolerated and perhaps even celebrated as such. I don’t think that most people — even normal people — find it impossibly difficult to kill someone under circumstances that their society deems acceptable. After all, these aren’t usually execution type murders. Generally, the killer points a gun at his adversary — with adrenaline pumping — pulls the trigger , and sees what happens.

  35. The legendary Jerry Miculek demonstrates advantages of the “Ghetto Stance” while shooting.

  36. @War for Blair Mountain
    Wasn’t that the Kenyan’s Policy in Eastern Ukraine and Syria? Lot’s of innocent Orthodox Russian Christians in the Eastern Ukraine.....Lot’s of innocent Syrian People in Syria......And despite this....the Kenyan is worshipped by the majority nonwhite Democratic Party Voting Bloc....Can you believe it....And the Kenyan’s crimes were on a vastly larger scale.....

    Replies: @Ron Mexico

    “And the Kenyan’s crimes were on a vastly larger scale…..”
    and he was awarded a Nobel before starting, to provide cover.

  37. Murder causes murder, and the murder murder causes, causes more murder.

  38. I’m calling out the elephant in the room: Negroes are not capable of living in the same society as non-Negroes (Whites yes, but also Arabs, Turks, Far Easterners…). They went thousands of years without producing enough societies more advanced than the Plains Indians. Negroes were not only better behaved under segregation, but Muslims knew how they needed a boot on their necks (and a blade at their groins).

  39. @Nicholas Stix
    @R.G. Camara

    "Broken Windows Policing" is a sham, and Bill Bratton is a proven fraud.

    https://nicholasstixuncensored.blogspot.com/2019/02/everyone-knows-that-crime-went-down-for.html

    Replies: @Bugg, @Forbes, @Kronos, @Hibernian

    Pretty hard to fake the stats on a 90% decline in murder in NYC. While bullet-ridden dead bodies don’t talk, they scream murder.

    • Replies: @Nicholas Stix
    @Forbes

    1. It wasn't a 90% decline. You're just pulling numbers out of your ... back pocket.

    2. Some of the "disappeared" vics' bodies were riddled with bullets, while others weren't.

    Your comment screams: 'I have no idea what I'm talking about, because I've never studied the matter, and I never will.'

    Not all opinions are created equal.

    Replies: @95Theses, @Forbes

  40. @Nicholas Stix
    @R.G. Camara

    "Broken Windows Policing" is a sham, and Bill Bratton is a proven fraud.

    https://nicholasstixuncensored.blogspot.com/2019/02/everyone-knows-that-crime-went-down-for.html

    Replies: @Bugg, @Forbes, @Kronos, @Hibernian

    I followed the link, great stuff!

  41. @Arclight
    When I lived in a black neighborhood, it seemed to me that although most people are not involved in criminal activity, there is a level of tolerance for it that I cannot imagine whites putting up with. People would tsk at the behavior of so-and-so's son or whatever, but they wouldn't actually band together and make it clear that they'd be calling the cops at the first sign of trouble to keep the bad actors in line. The attitude towards a lot of the tit-for-tat shootings in the area was that it was just scum taking out other scum.

    A lot of this indifference to law enforcement can be chalked up to a fairly high percentage of the young men (ie people's sons or grandsons) being involved in petty crime and my neighbors didn't want to see them get in trouble...then generational damage to black communities was pretty obvious. The older residents aged 60 and up worked or had worked until retirement, about half of the people in their 30s and 40s had jobs and the other half had some kind of criminal record and worked intermittently if at all, and there was only one kid under 30 that I knew had a job. Most of the older people were married, but there was only one household in the entire neighborhood with a married 30ish couple with children, and a whole lot of grandparents taking care of the grandchildren.

    Replies: @E. Rekshun, @95Theses

    about half of the people in their 30s and 40s had jobs and the other half had some kind of criminal record and worked intermittently if at all

    I’ve sometimes wondered how these lifelong unemployed men support themselves in old age. Aside from SSDI, they can’t collect social security or Medicare and, surely, have no IRAs, 401Ks, or corporate pensions.

    • Replies: @donvonburg
    @E. Rekshun

    I think that to get full social security you had to work in forty quarters ( in each quarter for ten years). I'm sure a lot of these guys would work for a little while and get fired or quit, and over enough years they'd have worked in orty qurters even if it was one week in each quarter. When they get very old, there are homeless shelters, food banks, et al and with little help from churches and charities they sort of get along.

    Plus, their baby mommas often give them money even after Dontravious has been shot and killed twenty years ago in a crack deal gone wrong. For guys with little IQ they can figure out how to game the system pretty good.

    America wastes so much as a society that these guys often can live off the offal, so to speak, pretty well. By their standards.

    , @William Badwhite
    @E. Rekshun

    They mooch off the various women in their lives. Baby mommas, dey mommas, dey grandmommas, etc. The women are able to draw all sorts of welfare b/c of their single motherhood.

  42. @Reg Cæsar

    Our society needs more white guy data analysts to do for crime what they did for baseball since Bill James.

     

    Why not start with James himself?


    Bill James, True-Crime Obsessive, on the Genre’s Enduring Importance

    Replies: @David In TN

    I was unimpressed by James’ True Crime book.

  43. @R.G. Camara
    So, in other words....Broken Windows works. Police and prosecutors should stop concentrating on the "big score" of a local crime boss and just lean hard and heavy and throw the book at the low-level guys. Generals without soliders are just dudes with fancy jackets. Every chief needs braves to go do the fighting. Etc.

    Bill Bratton is proved correct yet again.

    Of course, one major reason Broken Windows isn't implemented as thoroughly as possible nationwide is that police and prosecutors who are career-minded want to land a big fish arrest---better to make their careers with. Heck, Giuliani himself, who pushed Broken Windows as mayor, made his career as a prosecutor busting big-name Mafia bosses in Manhattan. Picking up low-level dudes doesn't land you on the front page.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Nicholas Stix, @David In TN

    Politically ambitious prosecutors are always hunting for Tom Wolfe’s Great White Defendant. Mafia/Organized Crime types are a favorite target.

    • Agree: Nicholas Stix
  44. @ben tillman
    Leovy, Asher, Horwitz, and Abt -- could we have a say in what happens in our country?

    At 2% of the population, Jews should constitute (by chance) 4 out of 4 people in one of six million instances. Yet it seems that it happens more than one hundred thousand times that often.

    Replies: @Nicholas Stix

    Abt–Abbot, in English. What a classically Jewish name!

  45. @Forbes
    @Nicholas Stix

    Pretty hard to fake the stats on a 90% decline in murder in NYC. While bullet-ridden dead bodies don't talk, they scream murder.

    Replies: @Nicholas Stix

    1. It wasn’t a 90% decline. You’re just pulling numbers out of your … back pocket.

    2. Some of the “disappeared” vics’ bodies were riddled with bullets, while others weren’t.

    Your comment screams: ‘I have no idea what I’m talking about, because I’ve never studied the matter, and I never will.’

    Not all opinions are created equal.

    • Replies: @95Theses
    @Nicholas Stix

    Mr. Stix, as I’ve been following your blog intermittently since about 2011 (though I have read your columns on VDARE for much longer), I think it needs to be said that no one – no one – takes more time and labor in reporting on stories (especially those ignored by other media outlets) as do you. No one is even close to thoroughness in researching – not even the NPR-voiced Jamie Satterfield (who is only slightly more interesting than an Indian Head test pattern).

    Example:
    Just today I was tracking down via my usual sources (VDARE, VFR [Lawrence Auster], unz.com, frontpagemag.com, First Things, et al) news about the drugging, kidnapping, rape, and strangulation of 21 year-old Irish exchange student, Nicola Furlong, seven years ago in Japan by Richard Hinds (in tandem with rapist–talented rap artist, James “King Tight” Blackston).

    Here is the yield of my preliminary search results:

    National Review — 0 mentions
    The New Criterion — 0
    • First Things — 0
    • FPM — 0
    • City Journal — 0
    • VFR — 3 mentions
    • SBPDL — 7
    • Nicholas Stix uncensored blogspot298

    So there you have it, ladies and germs. The results speak for themselves.

    Replies: @byrresheim

    , @Forbes
    @Nicholas Stix

    Rebuttals usually require something more than bluster. If you have some numbers and a source I'm happy to listen. But you don't offer any. Nothing. Zilch. Zero.

    So, I couldn't agree with you more: Not all opinions are created equal.

    Obviously it takes it takes a fantasist to imagine what you think you know.

    Keep your day job, if you have one...

  46. @Dave from Oz
    @ben tillman


    @3 - "He’s ignorant. What he calls “retribution” is just a form of deterrence. "
     
    Not exactly. It's worthwhile picking a different crime - let's say fraud that steals your grandma's life savings.

    Deterrence means discouraging people from commiting fraud. Whether the original offender or would-be fraudsters in general.

    Retribution means discouraging granny's relatives from assaulting or killing the fraudster. It is about satisfying the human need for vengeance. The state avenges, rather than individuals doing it. This is why the British image of Justice carries a sword and a shield. The shield is not to protect the innocent - it's to protect the guilty. Once justice is served, the matter is concluded. This is why people plead guilty before a court - they are seeking the protection of the court from the excessive vengeance of those they have wronged.

    And let's not throw up our hands in horror at the very idea of vengeance. The impulse to avenge a wrong - whether done to ourselves or to others - is a central part of what makes us a social species. The two are linked, of course. Vengeance is done in order to deter.

    As C S Lewis points out: the retribution part of justice is terribly important, otherwise we are just engaging in social conditioning by the state. It would be wrong to punish someone to condition them to not steal anymore unless they deserved it.

    Replies: @ben tillman

    Retribution means discouraging granny’s relatives from assaulting or killing the fraudster.

    No, it doesn’t, as I already explained. You’re conflating deterrence and retribution.

  47. I thought this post was going to be about wheelchair rugby.

  48. @Bugg
    @Sean

    Was in the Brooklyn DA's office during some of the time when Scarcella's cases were handled. Late 1980s/early 1990s was a time of well over 2000 murders every year in NYC, and many of those were in Brooklyn North, the area Scarcella and his partner, Steven Chmil, worked. it was almost all one black or Latino guy shooting another over ghetto nonsense. Both the DA's office and NYPD were only too happy to close the cases out even when it was well-known they did some crazy stuff to get witnesses to testify. In one instance took a witness out of jail and let him go bang his girlfriend unsupervised on the way to court while they waited in the car.

    House of cards fell down when one white junkie defendant accused of murdering a rabbi won his appeal about his confession being coerced. Having been in the room when a murderer confessed on video after being read his rights, I find the whole podcast genre of evil detectives coercing confessions usually laughable. But also think it's fair to note Brooklyn North homicides at that time were nothing but results of arguments among and between drug dealers, junkies, and other ghetto folk.And the volume; multiple homicides all the time. One precinct, the 75th in East New York, was a killing field. They might not have had such a run of closures in Manhattan (think the murderous Wonderbread nonethnic white people of "Law & Order", but there's never been that much murder like that in NY!) Forensic analysis was primitive until very recently, and detectives in such environments were more inclined to get a confession or a even bad witness than hunt around for data which would not be correctly analyzed for months, if ever. Where Scarcella and Chmil went bad was too often going for the BS confession or crappy witness. Older smarter detectives would simply say the story is what the story is, and if that meant a murder goes unpunished, that's life.Those guys really did go out of their way to seek closure for the glory of it. And while nobody stands up for them now, their bosses back then had no problem with any of it.

    Replies: @Sean

    Yes, I suppose the background of a huge numbers of low profile homicides in their area and inadequate resources to fully investigate them needs to be considered when criticising the end results. He and his sidekick did find time and energy to train for and run marathons though. They really should have known better than to try using the fast and dirty methods on a crime as high profile as the killing of a rabbi. Such cases get looked at very closely.

    And while nobody stands up for them now, their bosses back then had no problem with any of it.

    Every boss tell you the way he wants the job done, but also demands results that cannot be got sticking to approved methods. And if you get caught he is sooo shocked at what you were doing to meet the targets.

    Wonderbread nonethnic white people of “Law & Order”

    Ha ha, yes especially the cops! Those actors played detectives with very non ethnic names; perhaps that was intended to convey they were doing the job in a very punctilious way. “Scarcella” does not sound very like a by-the-book Law and Order detective.

  49. @E. Rekshun
    @Arclight

    about half of the people in their 30s and 40s had jobs and the other half had some kind of criminal record and worked intermittently if at all

    I've sometimes wondered how these lifelong unemployed men support themselves in old age. Aside from SSDI, they can't collect social security or Medicare and, surely, have no IRAs, 401Ks, or corporate pensions.

    Replies: @donvonburg, @William Badwhite

    I think that to get full social security you had to work in forty quarters ( in each quarter for ten years). I’m sure a lot of these guys would work for a little while and get fired or quit, and over enough years they’d have worked in orty qurters even if it was one week in each quarter. When they get very old, there are homeless shelters, food banks, et al and with little help from churches and charities they sort of get along.

    Plus, their baby mommas often give them money even after Dontravious has been shot and killed twenty years ago in a crack deal gone wrong. For guys with little IQ they can figure out how to game the system pretty good.

    America wastes so much as a society that these guys often can live off the offal, so to speak, pretty well. By their standards.

  50. @Anon7
    I’ve watched Detroit TV news stations for decades, and from what I can see, most Detroit residents take shootings in stride, as long as innocent people aren’t killed.

    In the right circumstances, this could be a money-maker for the city. Cue the video!

    Which cannot be found on YouTube.

    Anyway, there’s this great episode of the classic Sixties series The Avengers. A quaint little English village named Little Storping hires itself out as a venue for targeted killings. Pay the town, invite your foe and shoot him. Very British.

    Appropriately, the episode is titled “Murderville”.

    Replies: @RobUK

    Anyway, there’s this great episode of the classic Sixties series The Avengers. A quaint little English village named Little Storping hires itself out as a venue for targeted killings. Pay the town, invite your foe and shoot him. Very British.

    Appropriately, the episode is titled “Murderville”.

    I recognised the village the moment I saw it in that episode, Aldbury.

  51. In Jill Leovy’s book “Ghettoside,” she describes much of the cause of murder in America as “a problem of human suffering caused by the absence of a state monopoly on violence,” meaning that people who lack service from the police wind up policing themselves.

    There are/have been human societies which yearned for the “absence of a state monopoly on violence”. In comparison to the State’s depravity and reach the odd black youth shooting each other would be a blessed relief.

  52. @Arclight
    When I lived in a black neighborhood, it seemed to me that although most people are not involved in criminal activity, there is a level of tolerance for it that I cannot imagine whites putting up with. People would tsk at the behavior of so-and-so's son or whatever, but they wouldn't actually band together and make it clear that they'd be calling the cops at the first sign of trouble to keep the bad actors in line. The attitude towards a lot of the tit-for-tat shootings in the area was that it was just scum taking out other scum.

    A lot of this indifference to law enforcement can be chalked up to a fairly high percentage of the young men (ie people's sons or grandsons) being involved in petty crime and my neighbors didn't want to see them get in trouble...then generational damage to black communities was pretty obvious. The older residents aged 60 and up worked or had worked until retirement, about half of the people in their 30s and 40s had jobs and the other half had some kind of criminal record and worked intermittently if at all, and there was only one kid under 30 that I knew had a job. Most of the older people were married, but there was only one household in the entire neighborhood with a married 30ish couple with children, and a whole lot of grandparents taking care of the grandchildren.

    Replies: @E. Rekshun, @95Theses

    A couple years before I moved away from Columbus’ westside Hilltop neighborhood, a property owner had setup one of his houses for a call girl to work out of. Not even a week later that “business” was gone – and only because a throng of about 150 neighbors (all White people) had gathered outside the house in the evening hours protesting the very existence of the new establishment … and drawing the attention of a couple news stations in the process who covered the demonstration.

    Oh, and this was not what you would call an “upscale” neighborhood. Just your average law-abiding White community.

  53. @South Texas Guy
    Where's Wambaugh to write a true crime story about this when you need him? Although, I guess if he's still alive (and mentally capable), he's in his mid 80s. But he'd have the nads to not give a damn. Choir Boys, New Centurions, and the first non fiction of his, The Onion Field were great. His later stuff faltered, but he was still better than most crime/mystery writers.

    Replies: @95Theses

    The Onion Field is only one of two films I’ve ever viewed in which I felt I was really there watching the horror of the murder scene unfold. The hair was standing up straight on every inch of me.

    From what I remember reading at the time, each scene in that film took place where it had actually happened – aside from the onion field itself (as I recall only because the field had since been developed).

  54. @Nicholas Stix
    @R.G. Camara

    "Broken Windows Policing" is a sham, and Bill Bratton is a proven fraud.

    https://nicholasstixuncensored.blogspot.com/2019/02/everyone-knows-that-crime-went-down-for.html

    Replies: @Bugg, @Forbes, @Kronos, @Hibernian

    Mr. Stix, fakestats are rampant when leftists are in the driver’s seat and crime is skyrocketing. They are of a piece with the excuses and rationalizations given by the Left for criminal behavior, and the resulting refusal to take crime seriously. I know, I live in Chicago. I’ve seen the results of the polar opposite of broken windows policing, call it crime historian policing, in my neighborhood.

    It would be better to say that the unreliability of crime statistics kept by police departments under liberal and moderate (there are no conservative) municipal administrations makes the statistical comparison of the results of various policing strategies difficult if not impossible.

  55. Sorry, Steve, but as a lifelong true crime nerd, I think you’ve misunderstood the subculture.

    True crime has traditionally been a safe space for whites to get together to talk about white people. Our defence against the SJW types has always been that we CAN’T be white supremacist, look at how we talk about how white people are bad. Now let’s go talk about white people…

    (That’s becoming an increasing problem, as the SJWs and angry black women are increasingly coming into our spaces and demanding we all talk about them. And not in an interesting way, either – god help you of you, say, point out that the current MMIW panic is the end result of indigenous men hurting indigenous women, and the agitators demanding that they never be put in prison for it. Black men don’t commit more crime? (!?) Everything must by YT’s fault! I truly don’t know why they don’t set up their own spaces.)

    So there’s the issue that the nerdy, people oriented whites who go into this aren’t interested in what you want them to do. (Men as well as women; it can be a bit of a nerdy white person dance/dating market, and even Bill James’ book clearly showed his fascination with whites.) Plus, the SJW contingent is coming in and crushing it already.

    You fail to realize how little overlap there is between the nerdy white guys who’d be interested in it, and the ones who’d be interested in talking about colored people all day. Notice how white people will only read about black crime if YT is at the center of things, even if it’s as the villain. We’re simply not interested in Them in and of Themselves. And that’s before the Woke bullshit.

  56. @E. Rekshun
    @Arclight

    about half of the people in their 30s and 40s had jobs and the other half had some kind of criminal record and worked intermittently if at all

    I've sometimes wondered how these lifelong unemployed men support themselves in old age. Aside from SSDI, they can't collect social security or Medicare and, surely, have no IRAs, 401Ks, or corporate pensions.

    Replies: @donvonburg, @William Badwhite

    They mooch off the various women in their lives. Baby mommas, dey mommas, dey grandmommas, etc. The women are able to draw all sorts of welfare b/c of their single motherhood.

  57. anon[132] • Disclaimer says:

    It’s not like this stuff hasn’t been studied to death. Although a fresh look is always interesting, but likely to run into the same basic issues.

    The problem is that it will always come down to race. Which everyone knows and no one has an acceptable solution.

    Is crime (murder) a cause or a symptom? Are bad neighborhoods disordered.and disorganized or highly organized (gangs)?

    The crude AI ish (or machine learning) police hotlists of the usual suspects have gotten shockingly close to bridging the gap between populations and named individuals.

    Maybe an alternative narrative, like instead of white flight, ethnic cleansing. Etc.

  58. Crime statistics aren’t something that Americans care about like they really care about baseball statistics.

    No, crime statistics are something Americans know will get them called ‘racist’ is they exhibit any but cursory knowledge of. Try citing FBI crime stats in your next argument with a lefty. You like your job? Do you bank with Chase? Better to restrict your public contentiousness to baseball stats; if you’ve got kids in school, your hands are already full countermanding their woke indoctrination anyway.

  59. @Nicholas Stix
    @Forbes

    1. It wasn't a 90% decline. You're just pulling numbers out of your ... back pocket.

    2. Some of the "disappeared" vics' bodies were riddled with bullets, while others weren't.

    Your comment screams: 'I have no idea what I'm talking about, because I've never studied the matter, and I never will.'

    Not all opinions are created equal.

    Replies: @95Theses, @Forbes

    Mr. Stix, as I’ve been following your blog intermittently since about 2011 (though I have read your columns on VDARE for much longer), I think it needs to be said that no one – no one – takes more time and labor in reporting on stories (especially those ignored by other media outlets) as do you. No one is even close to thoroughness in researching – not even the NPR-voiced Jamie Satterfield (who is only slightly more interesting than an Indian Head test pattern).

    Example:
    Just today I was tracking down via my usual sources (VDARE, VFR [Lawrence Auster], unz.com, frontpagemag.com, First Things, et al) news about the drugging, kidnapping, rape, and strangulation of 21 year-old Irish exchange student, Nicola Furlong, seven years ago in Japan by Richard Hinds (in tandem with rapist–talented rap artist, James “King Tight” Blackston).

    Here is the yield of my preliminary search results:

    National Review — 0 mentions
    The New Criterion — 0
    • First Things — 0
    • FPM — 0
    • City Journal — 0
    • VFR — 3 mentions
    • SBPDL — 7
    • Nicholas Stix uncensored blogspot298

    So there you have it, ladies and germs. The results speak for themselves.

    • Replies: @byrresheim
    @95Theses

    Please explain, even wikipedia seems quite clear on that matter.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Nicola_Furlong

  60. The odds or chances that a shooting crime will be solved are in direct proportion to the importance of the victim.

  61. @95Theses
    @Nicholas Stix

    Mr. Stix, as I’ve been following your blog intermittently since about 2011 (though I have read your columns on VDARE for much longer), I think it needs to be said that no one – no one – takes more time and labor in reporting on stories (especially those ignored by other media outlets) as do you. No one is even close to thoroughness in researching – not even the NPR-voiced Jamie Satterfield (who is only slightly more interesting than an Indian Head test pattern).

    Example:
    Just today I was tracking down via my usual sources (VDARE, VFR [Lawrence Auster], unz.com, frontpagemag.com, First Things, et al) news about the drugging, kidnapping, rape, and strangulation of 21 year-old Irish exchange student, Nicola Furlong, seven years ago in Japan by Richard Hinds (in tandem with rapist–talented rap artist, James “King Tight” Blackston).

    Here is the yield of my preliminary search results:

    National Review — 0 mentions
    The New Criterion — 0
    • First Things — 0
    • FPM — 0
    • City Journal — 0
    • VFR — 3 mentions
    • SBPDL — 7
    • Nicholas Stix uncensored blogspot298

    So there you have it, ladies and germs. The results speak for themselves.

    Replies: @byrresheim

    Please explain, even wikipedia seems quite clear on that matter.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Nicola_Furlong

  62. I’m familiar with the Wikipedia page, but I think maybe you’re missing my point. It being that I have found when Nicholas Stix takes on a project to research, he manages to hunt down sources I am unable to find elsewhere – even on the 60+ most reliable websites I regularly (and irregularly) visit.

    And besides (as I mentioned) what I posted was my preliminary research on Nicola Furlong.

    As to Wikipedia — I learned very early on of the hard Left bias of that website on all matters of race, IQ, multiculturalism, American History, Excedrin, Excedrin, Excedrin.

    I treat Wikipedia like a dictionary – it may sometimes be the initial place I go to for information, but never to get the last word.

  63. Though Atlanta consistently ranks among the worst for total incidents of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city has an 80 percent murder clearance rate. Nationally, fewer than 62 percent of murder cases are solved. http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/atlanta-population/
    Atlanta has a majority African-American population. This calls into question Leovy’s assertion that historic non-enforcement of laws by white cops has led to apathy and cynicism when it comes to cooperating with police to solve murders. For another control group, look at murder rates in Africa. I suppose that’s just the fingerprint of European colonialism, fifty plus years after independence. Overall I like Leovy’s book for the profile of John Skaggs, the dedicated homicide detective. Funny how most of his murder clearances come from getting criminals to confess by using methods the Innocence Project would find alarming: lying to suspects and witnesses alike in order to gain their cooperation.

  64. @Nicholas Stix
    @Forbes

    1. It wasn't a 90% decline. You're just pulling numbers out of your ... back pocket.

    2. Some of the "disappeared" vics' bodies were riddled with bullets, while others weren't.

    Your comment screams: 'I have no idea what I'm talking about, because I've never studied the matter, and I never will.'

    Not all opinions are created equal.

    Replies: @95Theses, @Forbes

    Rebuttals usually require something more than bluster. If you have some numbers and a source I’m happy to listen. But you don’t offer any. Nothing. Zilch. Zero.

    So, I couldn’t agree with you more: Not all opinions are created equal.

    Obviously it takes it takes a fantasist to imagine what you think you know.

    Keep your day job, if you have one…

  65. Liar. I sent you links to my work, which published some numbers and plenty of sources.

    You were too lazy to read them, and now you project your vices onto me.

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