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A paleontology grad student named Robert DePalma has made perhaps the most important find of a trove of fossils ever. His Tanis site in North Dakota shows the remains of huge numbers of creatures killed within an hour of the comet or asteroid that struck the earth 66 million years ago, rendering dinosaurs extinct:

This find confirms the theory of dinosaur extinction put forward several decades ago by Luis Alvarez and his son Walter. Here are Walter Alvarez and DePalma (who, yes, is related to movie director Brian DePalma), looking pretty pleased with themselves:

So that appears to be the end of alternative theories for dinosaur extinction, such as Deccan Traps and furtive juvenile delinquent smoking.

Or maybe it was a “political process?”

 
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  1. anonymous[479] • Disclaimer says:

    wwebd said , and I quote —– “Furtive juvenile delinquent smoking” ….
    followed by picture of dinosaurs smoking cigarettes outside a dinosaur high school, looking out for the vice principal.

    peak Sailer.
    Seriously, that is good wordsmithing.

    BTW, Luis Alvarez was a genius too.

    • Agree: ben tillman
    • Replies: @onetwothree
    Just...in case you are unaware...that is probably the most famous "Far Side" strip.

    Apparently Gary Larson submitted it during a crunch and didn't think much of it.
    , @PhysicistDave
    anonymous[479] wrote:

    BTW, Luis Alvarez was a genius too.
     
    I first met Luis around 1973 when I was an undergrad at Caltech and he was visitng campus: he was a pleasant, approachable, really nice guy.

    A few years later, I was at Stanford and the rumor mill said that Luis was coming across the Bay from Berkeley to give a really important talk at SLAC. All of us grad students showed up.

    It was one of his first presentations of the evidence he and his son had accumulated that showed an asteroid had killed the dinosaurs.

    We all left the lecture hall with our heads spinning: My God, we are among the first human beings who know, right now, what killed the dinosaurs!

    The best, clearest, and most stunning scientific talk I have ever heard.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Gary Larson and his "Far Side" cartoons are an American classic.
  2. anonymous[342] • Disclaimer says:

    wwebd said: “the end of alternative theories ….. furtive juvenile delinquent smoking” for the win

  3. I’ll bet you it’s more complicated than that.

    • Replies: @adreadline
    Color me suspicious that if researchers could travel back 66 million years in time, did so, and got high-resolution, time stamped pictures or even video of Earth years before the Chicxulub impact, the impact itself, and Earth in the years after it, you and folks like you would still be saying that.
    , @Desiderius
    Ah yes, Ockham's Rube Goldberg Machine, the favorite of aggrieved gnostics everywhere.
    , @dr kill
    Way more. It's lack of paleontological diversity.
  4. The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That’s a mighty powerful explosion.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That’s a mighty powerful explosion.
     
    Something like 13 billion megatons.
    , @Peripatetic Commenter
    Wow. Awesome resolution on their time measurements there.

    Perhaps they could give us the time of death for Jesus Christ just from his shroud.
    , @Truth
    Yep, and your car is still running off them.
    , @Anonymous
    Within an hour those particular animals were dead. Read the stories. Talks about inland standing waves in Norway from Japanese earthquake. There was a particular event at that sandbank. Not all of ND.
    , @Paul Jolliffe
    Steve left out the best part: Robert DePalma is Brian DePalma's cousin (director of "Dressed to Kill", "Carrie", "Scarface" and "Blow Out" among others.)

    (Steve has cited the "Scarface" Miami phenomenon from the early '80's in a number of posts refuting the stupid argument that everyone in Miami economically flourished thanks to floods of immigrants around 1980. So this connection fits.)

    My favorite quote: "Rudy Pascucci, left, and the paleontologist Robert DePalma, right, at DePalma’s dig site. Of his discovery, DePalma said, “It’s like finding the Holy Grail clutched in the bony fingers of Jimmy Hoffa, sitting on top of the Lost Ark.”

    Or, as his cousin Brian might have put it: “Every day above ground is a good day.” – Tony Montana
  5. There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read “Even when it’s over, it’s not really over.”

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor “punctuated equilibrium,” a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    • Replies: @danand
    “My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.”

    Dasein, your Iron Law I’d be a fool to argue against. As far as the national debt goes, if the US takes as long as Japan to colapse, we may still yet have a ways to go with debt expansion. But surely Japan will “outlive” the US, and likely most countries of europe, as Japan has chosen to remain Japanese.


    Japan's government debt to GDP ratio sits at 236% in 2017, more than double that of the U.S., which stands at 108%, according to the International Monetary Fund.

     
    , @Trevor H.

    My first Iron Law
     
    The Internet Blowhard is strong in this one!
    , @Dieter Kief
    It is not impossible to outwit Hegel, but you have to get up quite early in order to do so.
    Here, you haven't, because Hegel knew perfectly well (he loved to laugh!), that our way of looking at the world is necessarily inconsistent at some point, which we don't know and can't determine. - Think of his famous remark about the ruse of reason. And make sure you read this remark right, which means, have emphasized especially the words ruse and reason.
    , @James Braxton
    Why haven't interest rates spiked in response to the debt? The markets seem to accept it all as pretty normal.
    , @Skyler_the_Weird
    When you see Wells Fargo fail you'll know the end is nigh.
    , @Jack D
    The blast didn't kill every dinosaur on the planet instantly (though it killed a bunch) but the aftermath (dust cloud blocking out the sun) must have killed the rest within a couple of years and the extinction of various food species killed the stragglers eventually. It was a different, less dinosaur friendly planet after the blast.
    , @Pincher Martin

    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.
     
    There have also been a couple of tests (e.g. the Eyferth Study) which show blacks and whites have approximately the same IQ.

    When dealing with social science or historical events, go with the preponderance of evidence and ignore those lonely outliers that might have good explanations for why they don't fit with nearly everything else you're seeing.
    , @Hypnotoad666
    Randall Carlson has put forward a pretty persuasive argument that a comet impact in North America about 12-13,000 years ago could have played a big role in triggering the last big Ice Age and the massive big mammal die off in North America (with an assist from human hunters).

    Apparently, this is not mainstream. But there is a lot of the same evidence such as Iridium layers and Tektites.

    Joe Rogan has had him on several times. Whether he's right or not, he's very interesting.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R31SXuFeX0A

  6. Robert DePalma = Blame Predator

  7. Very cool discovery. Real crater of doom stuff. Apparently, the catastrophic effects of the asteroid strike in the Yucatan reached North Dakota in a matter of minutes.

    seismic waves likely arrived within 10 minutes of the impact from what would have been the equivalent of a magnitude 10 or 11 earthquake, creating a seiche (pronounced saysh), a standing wave, in the inland sea that is similar to water sloshing in a bathtub during an earthquake.

    This standing wave sloshed thousands of fish onto the shore where molton glass beads proceeded to rain down on them. Some of these beads (known as tektites) were recovered after being perfectly preserved in amber.

    Man, one asteroid strike can ruin your whole day. I now officially support Trump’s Space Force (assuming asteroid defense is part of the mission.)

    • Replies: @Father O'Hara
    Was it caused by climate change?
    , @Bard of Bumperstickers
    Trump, build the asteroid shield!
  8. A modest question: Will someone here explain how they can prove that this was not a local event, say a nearby volcanic eruption or meteorite impact?

    So that we don’t have to actually read their paper or whatever.

    Also, how do they establish that this event, this piling up of a bunch of dead things, happened contemporaneously with the Yucatan impact? I’m sure it has to to with atomic identification of isotopes matching the big one, or some such thing… Yes, I know the layer has been identified all over the world, so I guess this pile of fish is inside that layer…

    And, um…(bong hit)… it can be timed to the hour… because that is the only explanation… because that is the only thing that happened so shut up.

    Yes, there was such an impact at Yucatan, but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company, so I will deny knowing about it. I will just believe that those happy diggers have closed the book with one spot of ground forever, the end of history, of dinosaurs — some of whom were so massive that they could not live in present day gravity.

    My ass.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company
     
    What is it?
    , @Hypnotoad666
    For one thing, the article says that some of the fossil fish had tektites - i.e. glass beads ejected front the strike crater - lodged in their gills.
    , @dearieme
    I've no idea what you are hinting at. But I have read about a calculation by a serious chap who decided that the big dinosaurs couldn't have lived under an atmosphere that is much like ours. Their surface to volume ratio was so low that they'd have cooked slowly.

    Whether there exists a good response to this notion I don't know.
  9. @anon
    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That's a mighty powerful explosion.

    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That’s a mighty powerful explosion.

    Something like 13 billion megatons.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Tektites are like beads of molten rock, like obsidian, that get flung up into space and then fall out of the sky at 100 to 200 mph terminal velocity. I'm not sure if they would kill a stegosaurus, but getting shot by God's own beebee gun couldn't have been fun.
    , @Unladen Swallow
    100-300 million megatons is the correct figure if memory serves, it may have been 13 billion times the Hiroshima bomb. I think 100 million megatons is 7 billion Hiroshimas.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    For comparison, the world's entire nuclear arsenal currently measures around 1,500 megatons (incidentally, down more than tenfold from the 1960s-80s).

    Still basically just a fizzle relative to the power of big asteroids.
    , @Nick Diaz
    Wrong. It was 100 million megatons, or 100 teratons.
    , @Nick Diaz
    Wrong. It was 100 million megatons, or 100 teratons.
  10. There goes the case for saurogenic global warming. It wasn’t dinoflatulence after all.

    • Replies: @Bubba
    Michael Mann will soon miraculously produce a hockey stick graph (sorry, but you can't see all of the data) that will undoubtedly prove dinoflatulence was responsible the dinosaur extinction. And AOC will champion more funding for his pathetic Penn State sinecure. The graph will be peer-reviewed by clapping seal professors living off government grants with a 99.99% approval rate that is echoed endlessly by vapid Hollywood celebrities and the media dolts. It will also be the basis for Al Gore's next lucrative propaganda movie to be forced on American schoolchildren for another generation.
    , @Bard of Bumperstickers
    I thought this was going to be about archeological proof of Russian collusion.
  11. I remember when the Alvarez’s (Pere et Fils) theory was first proposed in 1980. The experts (paleontologists) mostly poo-poo-ed it. Eventually, 10-15 years later, they came around. It was a scientific revolution that I witnessed in my lifetime.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
    • Replies: @JMcG
    Plate techtonics is similar. My geology textbook in high school around 1980 was still full of descriptions of geosynclines and uplifting with much handwaving to explain the driving forces.
    I’m sure techtonics was well established at the professional level by then, but that’s not how geology was taught to interested high schoolers at the time.
    DNA sequencing is, of course, another revolution in understanding that we are living through in real time.
    , @Another physicist
    Walter Alvarez gave a Berkeley Physics Department colloquium in the early 80’s on his theory and the evidence. I was an undergrad at the time, and the intensity of the opposition by the paleontologist and geologists who showed up made quite an impression on me. They *really* didn’t like the idea of a sudden catastrophic event.
    , @Daniel H
    >>It was a scientific revolution that I witnessed in my lifetime.

    It's held up a lot better than that string theory, also developed late '70s early '80s.
    , @Jack Hanson
    Plate tectonics was derided as quakery until the 60s.

    Going to bring out our JIDF contingent on this one but the best thing that could happen to physics would be if the worship of Einstein could be set aside.
    , @Tipsy
    People thought Harry J. Marshall and Robin Warren were crazy when they suggested that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori caused ulcers. Two decades later, they won the Nobel prize for Medicine for their discovery.
  12. Or maybe it was a “political process?”

    No. Obviously the mammals moved in, killed all the male dinos, and fucked the females senseless the way only a mammal can.

    • LOL: Captain Tripps
  13. Anonymous[163] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    A modest question: Will someone here explain how they can prove that this was not a local event, say a nearby volcanic eruption or meteorite impact?

    So that we don't have to actually read their paper or whatever.

    Also, how do they establish that this event, this piling up of a bunch of dead things, happened contemporaneously with the Yucatan impact? I'm sure it has to to with atomic identification of isotopes matching the big one, or some such thing... Yes, I know the layer has been identified all over the world, so I guess this pile of fish is inside that layer...

    And, um...(bong hit)... it can be timed to the hour... because that is the only explanation... because that is the only thing that happened so shut up.

    Yes, there was such an impact at Yucatan, but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company, so I will deny knowing about it. I will just believe that those happy diggers have closed the book with one spot of ground forever, the end of history, of dinosaurs -- some of whom were so massive that they could not live in present day gravity.

    My ass.

    but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company

    What is it?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    I will not speak of it, for fear that there might be a licensed psychiatrist on here who could certify me into a 72-hour hold. As I recall, the food is terrible in those places, and my wife is trying a new salmon recipe today that I don't want to miss.
    , @Reg Cæsar
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b8/52/cf/b852cf2647fdb13718790385bb529d7b.jpg

    http://themillenniumreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/worlds-in-collision-20.jpg

    , @TontoBubbaGoldstein
    https://alvinalexander.com/sites/default/files/photos/dinosaurs-noahs-ark-oh-crap-today.jpg
    , @Jack D
    That the Joos done it.
  14. The New Yorker article is far less certain about this than Sailer. DePalma’s professional article will appear soon in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and while he has a strong view of what his discoveries mean, there is likely to be some scientific debate over them.

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/SteveBrusatte/status/1111669545285107714
  15. huge numbers of creatures killed within an hour

    They went from 1 to 3 on the SSSoR. There was no Stage 2.

    [MORE]

    Siouxsie Sioux Scale of Reckoning (#52):

    Stage 1: The Passenger
    Stage 2: This Wheel’s On Fire
    Stage 3: Cities In Dust

    • Replies: @Trevor H.
    Happened to hear Stage 3 this evening. Awesome song. Meanwhile sort of have to echo Buzz's skepticism that we could pin things down to an hour or so 100 million years ago. But unlike many of us here I'm not an expert paleontologist.
  16. @Mr. Anon

    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That’s a mighty powerful explosion.
     
    Something like 13 billion megatons.

    Tektites are like beads of molten rock, like obsidian, that get flung up into space and then fall out of the sky at 100 to 200 mph terminal velocity. I’m not sure if they would kill a stegosaurus, but getting shot by God’s own beebee gun couldn’t have been fun.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    So we can assume that DePalma has traced the tektites back to Chicxulub. That would establish the connection.

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.

    , @Redneck farmer
    More like God's own IED.
    , @Bill Jones
    God needs a new BB gun.
    According to a reliable source (some random dude on the internets) a really good BB gun gets a muzzle velocity of 900 FPS , the equivalent of 600+ mph, which would as my grandmother warned "Put your eye out" . We can only assume that the absence of blind dinosaurs in the report is proof that early arms manufacturers were no more reliable than Lockheed is today.

    (I used Imperial Measurements because the Metric system hadn't bee invented back then but I'm sure the Queen was around.)
    , @Jack D
    I doubt that the tektites are what killed the dinosaurs directly - it's just that when they were lying there dead the tektites rained down upon them and upon the dead fish who had been sloshed out of the inland sea so what you have is like a crime scene - you have dead dinosaurs mixed with fish with tektite beads trapped in their gills. We dig up the crime scene and construct a scenario for what happened from the evidence. Maybe there is some other explanation for this crime scene but this sounds like a pretty plausible one.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Steve, or knock your eye out.
    , @Nick Diaz
    Steve Sailer, falling debris from the meteor's impact had only an extremely small role in the extinction of dinosaurs. About 20% of it was due to the direct thermal and kinetic energy from the impact, and 80% of it was due to the cloud of dust lifted from the impact and the ash cloud from the the volcanic eruptions that followed, which covered the entire planet, curtailed photosynthesis and killing 99% of all life on Earth.
  17. @Anonymous

    but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company
     
    What is it?

    I will not speak of it, for fear that there might be a licensed psychiatrist on here who could certify me into a 72-hour hold. As I recall, the food is terrible in those places, and my wife is trying a new salmon recipe today that I don’t want to miss.

    • Replies: @adreadline
    You do well. Licensed psychiatrists, of course, have so much meaningful things to say about the K-T extinction, their opinion so informed as to be feared. And that's not even where they really shine. Ask one of them about Boolean algebra to truly get flabbergasted.
    , @Anon
    OK, Buzz is being too coy about it, so I'll say it:

    Dinosaurs may have farted themselves to extinction, according to a new study from British scientists.
     
    There, I said it.

    This is from Fox News, by the way, so it's been vetted.

    Dinosaurs 'gassed' themselves into extinction, British scientists say

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/dinosaurs-gassed-themselves-into-extinction-british-scientists-say


    Giant plant-eating sauropods were fingered as the key culprits in the study, which appears in the latest edition of the journal Current Biology. An average argentinosaurus, weighing around 90 tons and measuring 140 feet, chomped its way through half a ton of ferns a day, producing clouds of methane as the food broke down in its gut.

    "A simple mathematical model suggests that the microbes living in sauropod dinosaurs may have produced enough methane to have an important effect on the Mesozoic climate," Wilkinson said. "In fact, our calculations suggest these dinosaurs may have produced more methane than all the modern sources, natural and human, put together."
     

  18. IIRC the Deccan Traps supervolcano was suspiciously close in time and suspiciously near “the other side of the globe” to have considered as causally related. If the rock splatter, and the nuclear winter and lack of food doesn’t get you, here comes the volcano!

    There are many things out there dangerous to big animals:

    Just 2.6 million years ago:

    Researchers consider whether supernovae killed off large ocean animals at dawn of Pleistocene

    “As far back as the mid-1990s, people said, ‘Hey, look for iron-60. It’s a telltale because there’s no other way for it to get to Earth but from a supernova.’ Because iron-60 is radioactive, if it was formed with the Earth it would be long gone by now. So, it had to have been rained down on us. There’s some debate about whether there was only one supernova really nearby or a whole chain of them. I kind of favor a combo of the two — a big chain with one that was unusually powerful and close. If you look at iron-60 residue, there’s a huge spike 2.6 million years ago, but there’s excess scattered clear back 10 million years.”

    • Replies: @Anon
    I did a bunch of research a while back on the impact of a 6-mile rock impact on the planet (which is the size of the Yucatan impact), and I doubt an impact in the Yucatan was enough to kill off all the dinosaurs on the planet. As was noted, if you look at a map of the globe about the time of the Yucatan impact, the Deccan Traps in India are on the opposite side of the globe, and I mean almost exactly.


    When a 6-mile rock hits the planet, it'll have enough force to send a shock wave that goes past the Earth's mantle. Most of the rock will disintegrate on impact, but the important thing here is the force of a punch that manages to send a blast through the Earth's stiffer outer crust. Once it manages to break through this crust, it'll send a shock wave through the Earth's molten liquid interior, and that shock will keep going all the way to the other side of the planet.

    Liquid transmits the force of a shock wave a lot better than solids do. Go to Youtube and look at someone shooting a bullet into a block of ballistics gel on Youtube. The whole block wobbles under the impact. The Earth's molten interior operates like a gel. Shoot a rock into it with enough force, and the gel will wobble and the seal on the gel will 'pop' open on the opposite side of the impact if it hits hard enough. This is enough to break the earth's crust on the other and send matter spewing out.

    What started up around the time of the impact? The Deccan Traps on the other side of the planet. They began to spew away for 30K years.

    A very important point people miss is that the Deccan Traps were almost right on the equator at the time. The volcanic gasses emitted were in exactly the right position to enter the jet steams of both Northern and Southern hemispheres, which means the whole planet got nailed with poisonous volcano emissions. Plants in both hemisheres died, and anything further up the food chain lost its food supply.

    To put it bluntly, 30K years of murderous death is a lot of effective at killing off life on a planet than a 1 second impact.
  19. @Steve Sailer
    Tektites are like beads of molten rock, like obsidian, that get flung up into space and then fall out of the sky at 100 to 200 mph terminal velocity. I'm not sure if they would kill a stegosaurus, but getting shot by God's own beebee gun couldn't have been fun.

    So we can assume that DePalma has traced the tektites back to Chicxulub. That would establish the connection.

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.
     
    In the morning, before their night shifts as nude sushi models.
    , @Olorin
    Yeah, but don't get me started on "Deccan traps."
    , @Captain Tripps

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.
     
    Lemme get this straight; so you're saying:

    Chicxulub = "Chicks you lube"?

    Yeah, I can see how that's vaguely erotic...:-)
  20. @Anonymous

    but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company
     
    What is it?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Actually, that's not it.

    BTW I buy the DePalma connection between Chicxulub and his dead fish full of stone BBs, but I don't buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct.

    Others here point out that scientific revolutions are preceded by ridicule and disbelief. There may be a big one coming along, and dinosaur extinction may be tangential evidence for it. If Science survives long enough, future generations will know.

    , @El Dato
    Didn't Velikovsky put all of the solar system billard events into the same timeframe as humans, which was pretty lame, in a Flinstones kind of way?

    But yeah, Jupiter is the big ejector of stuff.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping-Jupiter_scenario
    , @J.Ross
    The Saturn Hypothesis explains so much in global mythology (Great Ages, multiple cultures agreeing that Jupiter or local equivalent fought and defeated Saturn or local equivalent, star in crescent image -- illogical as the Moon, and the abrupt explosion of interest in astronomy and precise measurement) but no astronomer accepts it because it depends on special conditions that make string theory look responsible.
    Fear not, we're on track for another scientific revoution, and when it takes hold you will be able to propose whatever theory you want and nobody will be able to be certain that you are wrong.
  21. It exploded with a force of 100 teratons of TNT. That is 2,000,000 X more powerful than the Tsar Bomba, the bomb detonated by the Soviet Union in 1961, which was the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated. Everything in a 200 mile radius from the impact was *vaporized* instantly or turned into plasma. The skin of a human would be burned out and the subcutaneous layer of fat would ignite at well over 1,000 miles distance. People at a distance of more than 3,000 miles from impact would only escape suffering third degree burns to their whole body due to the curvature of the Earth. Sauropods, animals that could weigh over 40 tons, were blown into the air like toothpicks more than 30 miles away by the shockwave at 3,000 miles from impact. This gives an idea of the scale of the thermal and kinetic energy represented by 100 teraton impact. The impact in fact sear the Earth’s tectonic plates, unleashing an era of 100,000 years of super-volcano eruptions that would cover the Earth in debris blocking the Sun and killing 99% of all life on Earth. Here is a computer reconstruction of the impact:

    And here is a video of the Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear bomb ever:

    As you can see, the meteor impact makes the Tsar Bomba seem like a firecracker in comparison.

    • Disagree: James Speaks
    • Replies: @El Dato
    Yep, you really don't want to see this kind of event from INSIDE a biosphere.

    Related: beautiful rendering of the Moon being used for target practice:

    https://www.quantamagazine.org/asteroid-rate-jumped-in-solar-systems-past-20190117/
    , @Skyler_the_Weird
    What was the strength of the Tunguska event in 1910? It was supposedly the largest impact event in history.
    , @Peterike
    Nick, I must say I’m impressed that even when you’re posting something totally apolitical, you still manage to come across like a petulant a-hole.
    , @Jabby Dot
    Awesome Video> Thanks for posting.
    , @donut
    Even with the parachute attached to the bomb I'm a little surprised that the aircrew got far enough away to be safe .
  22. @Intelligent Dasein
    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read "Even when it's over, it's not really over."

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor "punctuated equilibrium," a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    “My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.”

    Dasein, your Iron Law I’d be a fool to argue against. As far as the national debt goes, if the US takes as long as Japan to colapse, we may still yet have a ways to go with debt expansion. But surely Japan will “outlive” the US, and likely most countries of europe, as Japan has chosen to remain Japanese.

    Japan’s government debt to GDP ratio sits at 236% in 2017, more than double that of the U.S., which stands at 108%, according to the International Monetary Fund.

    • Replies: @bomag
    Debt does not necessarily lead to a catastrophic event; especially a debt owed to oneself.


    If the bond holders spend the money wisely, what's not to like?
    , @LondonBob
    Interestingly Niall Ferguson has an article comparing the contented stability of Japan to Britain, and the West's, current malaise in today's Sunday Times.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-japan-must-pity-the-land-of-the-setting-sun-s7tbb5zqb

    His conclusion is immigration is the main difference, mass immigration is not compatible with a stable, conservative country.
  23. Fossil, eh? I’m sure they’ll work the theme into one of their wristwatch boxes.

  24. @Buzz Mohawk
    So we can assume that DePalma has traced the tektites back to Chicxulub. That would establish the connection.

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.

    In the morning, before their night shifts as nude sushi models.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    Nightshift as nude sushi noodles I would understand (I have a mental picture, I have to admit). But nude sushi models? You made this one up to kid us - ok, now, hehe. Or is it otherwise?
  25. @Reg Cæsar
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b8/52/cf/b852cf2647fdb13718790385bb529d7b.jpg

    http://themillenniumreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/worlds-in-collision-20.jpg

    Actually, that’s not it.

    BTW I buy the DePalma connection between Chicxulub and his dead fish full of stone BBs, but I don’t buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct.

    Others here point out that scientific revolutions are preceded by ridicule and disbelief. There may be a big one coming along, and dinosaur extinction may be tangential evidence for it. If Science survives long enough, future generations will know.

    • Replies: @adreadline

    Others here point out that scientific revolutions are preceded by ridicule and disbelief.
     
    Sure. They also are preceded by sane evidence. Which includes collecting data in light of existing information, creating models that stand up to what we see, and other things that you might have done, so I'd like you to share it with us if possible.
    , @Jenner Ickham Errican

    but I don’t buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct
     
    It was a combination of structural damage and burning fuel, but some speculate it was controlled demolitions.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/elVypOEKQRc/maxresdefault.jpg
    , @S. Anonyia
    Aliens melting the mantle of the earth?
  26. @obwandiyag
    I'll bet you it's more complicated than that.

    Color me suspicious that if researchers could travel back 66 million years in time, did so, and got high-resolution, time stamped pictures or even video of Earth years before the Chicxulub impact, the impact itself, and Earth in the years after it, you and folks like you would still be saying that.

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Trevor H.
    Eh...it's easy to fake video now anyway.
    , @Olorin
    Now try quizzing them on the contents of the original Science article (June 1980).

    What we're witnessing with this reactionary contrarianism is parallel to what we see in "news" media and "social" "science": rhetorical strategies posing or regarded as factual or scientific argumentation...on the grounds of having/finding an outlet/audience. And hopefully therefore advertising revenue/clicks! (The parallel in the Ed Biz is enrollment figures...or number of campuses consulted-for; more in a moment on that.)

    It's related to what we see in the fury at/rejection of "human biodiversity." Which itself is a palatable layer wrapped around the red pill of nature refusing to conform to redistributionist political fantasies.

    As for Alvarez pere, never forget that there were people deeply angry at him for decades for testifying before the AEC that J. Robert Oppenheimer was a security risk.

    The "crisis in news media" (their exposure to fat-part-of-the-bell-curvians as propagandists, useful idiots, spies/leakers, and Service Animals to the powerful) parallels the "crisis in the social sciences" (where among other things the "crisis of replicability" signals how much work in these fields is propaganda/useful idiocy/the barking of Service Animals).

    Pursuit of the truth takes back seat to getting headlines, clicks, and jobs. And this is as true in the Ed Biz as in any other sector now.

    For what it's worth, the Alvarez hypothesis, which appeared a year prior to my finding myself in the company of robust evolutionary biologists, was the issue that first opened my eyes to the institutional communications aspect of academic discourse. It was astonishing to see utter bullshit become a supposedly serious topic of discussion merely because somebody had an old college friend who couldn't get a job in their field, so became a journo "expert" on it. Or because somebody had a conference slot to fill and thought it would be exciting to host a rhubarb. Or because some new and mediocre faculty hire realized they could get noticed not on the quality of their science, but the decibels of their contrarianism...and popularity with some students.

    Stop me before I digress into the parallel trainwrecks of tightly held globo infotainment companies taking over both news reporting and academic publishing.

    It's not just the social sciences that are in truth-crisis. Professorships in the sciences have long been at a premium. There are way more Ph.D.s minted than can ever be employed. Though the McEdBiz boom of the '70s mopped up some of the surplus for a few decades.

    Thus the vaudevillian skills of securing attention and applause through novelty acts have come a long way since the '80s, vastly accelerated by the automation of communication of the past ten years. So it's no surprise I guess that reactionary contrarianism as a strategy has accelerated as well. I mean, it's not like they study the trivium in the Departments of Demographic Pandering For Debt Profit.

    https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2017/01/13/upcoming-trends-2017-colleges-should-prepare-essay

    https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/call-action-marketing-and-communications-higher-education/communicating-value-university

    https://petersonrudgersgroup.com/about-us/

    , @larry lurker
    YouTube would be filling up with frame-by-frame debunkings of the video evidence. More evidence = more material to debunk.
  27. @Buzz Mohawk
    I will not speak of it, for fear that there might be a licensed psychiatrist on here who could certify me into a 72-hour hold. As I recall, the food is terrible in those places, and my wife is trying a new salmon recipe today that I don't want to miss.

    You do well. Licensed psychiatrists, of course, have so much meaningful things to say about the K-T extinction, their opinion so informed as to be feared. And that’s not even where they really shine. Ask one of them about Boolean algebra to truly get flabbergasted.

  28. @Buzz Mohawk
    So we can assume that DePalma has traced the tektites back to Chicxulub. That would establish the connection.

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.

    Yeah, but don’t get me started on “Deccan traps.”

  29. @Buzz Mohawk
    Actually, that's not it.

    BTW I buy the DePalma connection between Chicxulub and his dead fish full of stone BBs, but I don't buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct.

    Others here point out that scientific revolutions are preceded by ridicule and disbelief. There may be a big one coming along, and dinosaur extinction may be tangential evidence for it. If Science survives long enough, future generations will know.

    Others here point out that scientific revolutions are preceded by ridicule and disbelief.

    Sure. They also are preceded by sane evidence. Which includes collecting data in light of existing information, creating models that stand up to what we see, and other things that you might have done, so I’d like you to share it with us if possible.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter. I will leave it at that, with the caveat that I am not qualified to have an opinion of any importance.

    I am fascinated by the alternative and the direction it would, if true, necessarily lead some of our fundamental science. I am just shooting the shit around the campfire with (I hope) friends. Thanks for saying I do well. (I get discouraged.)
  30. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    huge numbers of creatures killed within an hour
     
    They went from 1 to 3 on the SSSoR. There was no Stage 2.

    Siouxsie Sioux Scale of Reckoning (#52):

    Stage 1: The Passenger
    Stage 2: This Wheel’s On Fire
    Stage 3: Cities In Dust

    Happened to hear Stage 3 this evening. Awesome song. Meanwhile sort of have to echo Buzz’s skepticism that we could pin things down to an hour or so 100 million years ago. But unlike many of us here I’m not an expert paleontologist.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Meanwhile sort of have to echo Buzz’s skepticism
     
    Right. I’ll admit I simply took the topical opportunity to further seed my recent coining of the SSSoR. It could possibly have a better chance than “UHB.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLZGa19pfW8
    , @Jenner Ickham Errican
    Whatever the exact significance of DePalma’s find, we can safely credit the whole production to a dino deal horrendous.

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xKL51jTYJcs/WMYrt956FaI/AAAAAAAAOrk/jH_KdtqXorUc_yQrVLpKbYNVLbF2IXt7QCLcB/s320/dino%2Bde%2Blaurentiis%2B1970s%2Bglasses%2B-%2BCopy.jpg
  31. @Intelligent Dasein
    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read "Even when it's over, it's not really over."

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor "punctuated equilibrium," a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    My first Iron Law

    The Internet Blowhard is strong in this one!

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
    Yes indeed. About a year ago some newcomer responded to one of his long prognostications by saying something like, "My God, man. Who do you think is going to read all that shyte?"
  32. @adreadline
    Color me suspicious that if researchers could travel back 66 million years in time, did so, and got high-resolution, time stamped pictures or even video of Earth years before the Chicxulub impact, the impact itself, and Earth in the years after it, you and folks like you would still be saying that.

    Eh…it’s easy to fake video now anyway.

  33. A version of the theory I heard was the Daccan Traps occurred first, lowering dinosaur numbers. Then the asteroid hit.

  34. @Steve Sailer
    Tektites are like beads of molten rock, like obsidian, that get flung up into space and then fall out of the sky at 100 to 200 mph terminal velocity. I'm not sure if they would kill a stegosaurus, but getting shot by God's own beebee gun couldn't have been fun.

    More like God’s own IED.

  35. @Nick Diaz
    It exploded with a force of 100 teratons of TNT. That is 2,000,000 X more powerful than the Tsar Bomba, the bomb detonated by the Soviet Union in 1961, which was the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated. Everything in a 200 mile radius from the impact was *vaporized* instantly or turned into plasma. The skin of a human would be burned out and the subcutaneous layer of fat would ignite at well over 1,000 miles distance. People at a distance of more than 3,000 miles from impact would only escape suffering third degree burns to their whole body due to the curvature of the Earth. Sauropods, animals that could weigh over 40 tons, were blown into the air like toothpicks more than 30 miles away by the shockwave at 3,000 miles from impact. This gives an idea of the scale of the thermal and kinetic energy represented by 100 teraton impact. The impact in fact sear the Earth's tectonic plates, unleashing an era of 100,000 years of super-volcano eruptions that would cover the Earth in debris blocking the Sun and killing 99% of all life on Earth. Here is a computer reconstruction of the impact: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpLY0YwMACE And here is a video of the Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear bomb ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1fM1OSpvaw As you can see, the meteor impact makes the Tsar Bomba seem like a firecracker in comparison.

    Yep, you really don’t want to see this kind of event from INSIDE a biosphere.

    Related: beautiful rendering of the Moon being used for target practice:

    https://www.quantamagazine.org/asteroid-rate-jumped-in-solar-systems-past-20190117/

  36. @adreadline

    Others here point out that scientific revolutions are preceded by ridicule and disbelief.
     
    Sure. They also are preceded by sane evidence. Which includes collecting data in light of existing information, creating models that stand up to what we see, and other things that you might have done, so I'd like you to share it with us if possible.

    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter. I will leave it at that, with the caveat that I am not qualified to have an opinion of any importance.

    I am fascinated by the alternative and the direction it would, if true, necessarily lead some of our fundamental science. I am just shooting the shit around the campfire with (I hope) friends. Thanks for saying I do well. (I get discouraged.)

    • Replies: @adreadline

    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter.
     
    Doesn't work. So that alternative model to the K-T extinction is possible, provided a discovery happens in physics, and I suspect you have no evidence it actually could happen and be consistent with the data available today.

    Look, we could find out we all live in a quantum computer simulation, or that our ''universe'' is the product of a Boltzmann brain spontaneously created 10^(10^50) years after the true Universe came to be. That would open up a lot of possibilities for bong hitters, but sadly, disappointingly, frustratingly for them, there's no evidence for any of that, so whatever model you come up with that would blast the Alvarez hypothesis out of the water needs to follow the laws of our Universe as we understand them now.
    , @JMcG
    You are indeed among friends here Buzz. I get a lot more out of this comments section than it gets out of me and you are a big part of it old buddy.
    , @Keypusher
    Quit playing games. Say what the theory is, or shut up.
    , @Mitchell Porter
    Please tell us what the mystery theory is. Expanding earth? Electric universe?
  37. “This find confirms the theory of dinosaur extinction put forward several decades ago ….”

    More importantly, it proves that Climate Change can be more meanacing and immediate than deniers can imagine. We may have even less than twelve years: Smoke’em if you have them.

  38. @Reg Cæsar
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b8/52/cf/b852cf2647fdb13718790385bb529d7b.jpg

    http://themillenniumreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/worlds-in-collision-20.jpg

    Didn’t Velikovsky put all of the solar system billard events into the same timeframe as humans, which was pretty lame, in a Flinstones kind of way?

    But yeah, Jupiter is the big ejector of stuff.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping-Jupiter_scenario

  39. @danand
    “My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.”

    Dasein, your Iron Law I’d be a fool to argue against. As far as the national debt goes, if the US takes as long as Japan to colapse, we may still yet have a ways to go with debt expansion. But surely Japan will “outlive” the US, and likely most countries of europe, as Japan has chosen to remain Japanese.


    Japan's government debt to GDP ratio sits at 236% in 2017, more than double that of the U.S., which stands at 108%, according to the International Monetary Fund.

     

    Debt does not necessarily lead to a catastrophic event; especially a debt owed to oneself.

    If the bond holders spend the money wisely, what’s not to like?

  40. It’s a very interesting find, no doubt, but calling it “most important ever” or saying that it definitively establishes the cause of the K-Pg extinction is a huge overstatement that is, alas, typical of modern science journalism. Such impact-associated death-beds are known in other places, e.g. the Eltanin impact of a 1-4km asteroid 2.5 million years ago has left death-beds with marine and terrestrial organisms all jumbled together in southern Andes. As others have noted above, and as is well known to paleontologists (below I follow the explanation given in K. Yes’kov, A History of the Earth and life on it, an excellent Russian high-school biology textbook), K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous. Furthermore, dinosaurs have started to have problems dozens of millions of years before K-Pg, when mammals had evolved to the point where they could start eating seeds (“rats”). Up to the middle of Cretaceous, there were no plant-eating mammals or true carnivores: early mammals were insectivores and non-specialized predators like hedgehogs and opossums, and therefore their density was too low to support carnivores (“foxes”). With the appearance of “rats”, the density of small mammals could increase dramatically to exploit the much more abundant food base, and “foxes” became viable. This is the point where dinosaurs’ problems began, because a baby dinosaur is small enough for “foxes” to hunt, but too small to be continuously active like large dinosaurs who relied on their size to work around cold-bloodedness, and way too small for them to protect. Dinosaurs tried both nest-protection and becoming smaller themselves, but it was too late: new dinosaur taxa stopped appearing and compensating the natural extinction rate, which according to paleontological data keeps steady all through Cretaceous.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    Candide III,

    To the best of my knowledge, everything you say is true.

    But, still... if this find is validated by other scientists, it is pretty amazing! (I was going to return to my childhood in the '60s and just dub it "Super-Cool!")
    , @res
    Thanks for that. Here is a paper about the Eltanin impact: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258670208_The_Eltanin_asteroid_impact_Possible_South_Pacific_palaeomegatsunami_footprint_and_potential_implications_for_the_Pliocene-Pleistocene_transition

    On what basis do you say: "K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous."? One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    1. Extinction began occurring the moment peak population was passed.
    2. Extinction occurred at the exact moment the final dinosaur died.

    But I don't think either of those is very worthwhile. How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum? The magnitude of that difference seems important to me--not just observing that some decline had occurred.

    In any case, being able to make a find like this and then provide evidence resolving it to within an hour of an impact 66 million years ago is amazing IMHO.

    P.S. For those not up on the terminology (like me), K-Pg boundary is the new name for K-T boundary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_boundary
    Some background on the change: http://www.stratigraphy.org/bak/geowhen/tq.html
    , @vinny
    Very interesting comment, thanks for sharing.

    This theory is especially plausible since we've seen the destruction small mammals have wrought on island bird and reptile species in the Modern era. Dinosaurs literally went the way of the Dodo, who would have thought.

  41. Anon[130] • Disclaimer says:

    Nobody has ever put forth Daccan Traps as the cause of dinosaur extinction. It’s always been seen as an additional, small contributing factor to the meteor.

    Since the main Deccan Traps researcher was female, a few years ago her theory was exaggerated and misrepresented in the web media in furtherance of a sort of Rosalind Franklin or Hidden Figures narrative about women in science being crushed by the patriarchy.

    Once someone got in contact with her and the true story didn’t fit the narrative it was dropped, but it will never completely die, as Steve’s, perhaps facetious, reference to it demonstrates.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Nobody
     
    Gerta Keller.
  42. @Buzz Mohawk
    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter. I will leave it at that, with the caveat that I am not qualified to have an opinion of any importance.

    I am fascinated by the alternative and the direction it would, if true, necessarily lead some of our fundamental science. I am just shooting the shit around the campfire with (I hope) friends. Thanks for saying I do well. (I get discouraged.)

    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter.

    Doesn’t work. So that alternative model to the K-T extinction is possible, provided a discovery happens in physics, and I suspect you have no evidence it actually could happen and be consistent with the data available today.

    Look, we could find out we all live in a quantum computer simulation, or that our ”universe” is the product of a Boltzmann brain spontaneously created 10^(10^50) years after the true Universe came to be. That would open up a lot of possibilities for bong hitters, but sadly, disappointingly, frustratingly for them, there’s no evidence for any of that, so whatever model you come up with that would blast the Alvarez hypothesis out of the water needs to follow the laws of our Universe as we understand them now.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    I knew I'd walk into a dissertation committee if I went down this path.

    You make a good point, of which I was already well aware. In fact, you have caused me to reexamine the K-T angle of my "thesis." You see, the extinction is, as I said, only peripheral to what I am (not) talking about. It is neither the main subject, nor necessary.

    Furthermore, I mistakenly focused only on the large creatures that went extinct, when in fact it was the majority of species of all kinds that disappeared.

    Nevertheless, there is no proof that the meteorite impact was the only factor in that great change. It may have been the primary cause, or it may have been one of the straws that broke the dinosaurs' backs.

    In any case, I concede to you in the matter of the extinction event.
  43. @Intelligent Dasein
    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read "Even when it's over, it's not really over."

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor "punctuated equilibrium," a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    It is not impossible to outwit Hegel, but you have to get up quite early in order to do so.
    Here, you haven’t, because Hegel knew perfectly well (he loved to laugh!), that our way of looking at the world is necessarily inconsistent at some point, which we don’t know and can’t determine. – Think of his famous remark about the ruse of reason. And make sure you read this remark right, which means, have emphasized especially the words ruse and reason.

    • Replies: @Peter Lund
    We are talking about Hegel? The genius who thought Goethe had figured out colours and Newton hadn't? The genius who thought Newton didn't understand Kepler's laws?
  44. @Reg Cæsar

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.
     
    In the morning, before their night shifts as nude sushi models.

    Nightshift as nude sushi noodles I would understand (I have a mental picture, I have to admit). But nude sushi models? You made this one up to kid us – ok, now, hehe. Or is it otherwise?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Google it. You know how in some sushi restaurants sushi comes presented on a boat? Substitute "girl" for "boat" and you'll have it.
  45. Anon[188] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    I will not speak of it, for fear that there might be a licensed psychiatrist on here who could certify me into a 72-hour hold. As I recall, the food is terrible in those places, and my wife is trying a new salmon recipe today that I don't want to miss.

    OK, Buzz is being too coy about it, so I’ll say it:

    Dinosaurs may have farted themselves to extinction, according to a new study from British scientists.

    There, I said it.

    This is from Fox News, by the way, so it’s been vetted.

    Dinosaurs ‘gassed’ themselves into extinction, British scientists say

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/dinosaurs-gassed-themselves-into-extinction-british-scientists-say

    Giant plant-eating sauropods were fingered as the key culprits in the study, which appears in the latest edition of the journal Current Biology. An average argentinosaurus, weighing around 90 tons and measuring 140 feet, chomped its way through half a ton of ferns a day, producing clouds of methane as the food broke down in its gut.

    “A simple mathematical model suggests that the microbes living in sauropod dinosaurs may have produced enough methane to have an important effect on the Mesozoic climate,” Wilkinson said. “In fact, our calculations suggest these dinosaurs may have produced more methane than all the modern sources, natural and human, put together.”

    • LOL: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    "An average argentinosaurus, weighing around 90 tons and measuring 140 feet..."
     
    Kinda brings me to my point about Earth's gravity -- and the just slightly, remotely-conceivable, crackpot idea that it just might, perhaps, not have been as strong then.

    Ergo, the planet just possibly, maybe, wasn't as big then.

  46. @Trevor H.
    Happened to hear Stage 3 this evening. Awesome song. Meanwhile sort of have to echo Buzz's skepticism that we could pin things down to an hour or so 100 million years ago. But unlike many of us here I'm not an expert paleontologist.

    Meanwhile sort of have to echo Buzz’s skepticism

    Right. I’ll admit I simply took the topical opportunity to further seed my recent coining of the SSSoR. It could possibly have a better chance than “UHB.”

  47. @Steve Sailer
    Tektites are like beads of molten rock, like obsidian, that get flung up into space and then fall out of the sky at 100 to 200 mph terminal velocity. I'm not sure if they would kill a stegosaurus, but getting shot by God's own beebee gun couldn't have been fun.

    God needs a new BB gun.
    According to a reliable source (some random dude on the internets) a really good BB gun gets a muzzle velocity of 900 FPS , the equivalent of 600+ mph, which would as my grandmother warned “Put your eye out” . We can only assume that the absence of blind dinosaurs in the report is proof that early arms manufacturers were no more reliable than Lockheed is today.

    (I used Imperial Measurements because the Metric system hadn’t bee invented back then but I’m sure the Queen was around.)

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    God needs a new BB gun.
     
    He'll put His Eye out!
  48. @anonymous
    wwebd said , and I quote ----- "Furtive juvenile delinquent smoking" ....
    followed by picture of dinosaurs smoking cigarettes outside a dinosaur high school, looking out for the vice principal.

    peak Sailer.
    Seriously, that is good wordsmithing.

    BTW, Luis Alvarez was a genius too.

    Just…in case you are unaware…that is probably the most famous “Far Side” strip.

    Apparently Gary Larson submitted it during a crunch and didn’t think much of it.

    • Replies: @James Braxton
    Midvale School for the Gifted, probably
  49. OT:
    I can’t be the only person who finds it funny that the ‘Trans Day of Visibility’ is the day before April 1st.

    The Royal Navy needs trans people!

    Now in fairness this not from the Royal Navy twitter account but the LGBQ+ members organisation of the Royal Navy, but still.

  50. OT:
    On trans day of visibility lots of young women with BPD claiming to be men are showing themselves with short haircuts but the other ones you see are guys like this. Over 50, software engineer…

    The Sailer-type transgender.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    Just be on the lookout for young girls with buckets of water, Carol!
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Altai, in a few weeks Carol will announced that Joe Biden sniffed her hair and planted a slow kiss to the back of her head, but who could blame Joe?
    , @Peripatetic Commenter
    Unfortunately for it, it will never be female. Not ever. Not even if it cuts its dangly bits off.
  51. @anonymous
    wwebd said , and I quote ----- "Furtive juvenile delinquent smoking" ....
    followed by picture of dinosaurs smoking cigarettes outside a dinosaur high school, looking out for the vice principal.

    peak Sailer.
    Seriously, that is good wordsmithing.

    BTW, Luis Alvarez was a genius too.

    anonymous[479] wrote:

    BTW, Luis Alvarez was a genius too.

    I first met Luis around 1973 when I was an undergrad at Caltech and he was visitng campus: he was a pleasant, approachable, really nice guy.

    A few years later, I was at Stanford and the rumor mill said that Luis was coming across the Bay from Berkeley to give a really important talk at SLAC. All of us grad students showed up.

    It was one of his first presentations of the evidence he and his son had accumulated that showed an asteroid had killed the dinosaurs.

    We all left the lecture hall with our heads spinning: My God, we are among the first human beings who know, right now, what killed the dinosaurs!

    The best, clearest, and most stunning scientific talk I have ever heard.

    • Replies: @Brutusale
    MIT's Radiation Lab, the Manhattan Project, Nobel for his bubble chamber work, then he shifts gears to a totally different discipline, making a seminal discovery that soon becomes the working hypothesis.

    There's a high-octane intellect. All we have now are Bill Nye and Neil deGrasse Tyson.
  52. @Candide III
    It's a very interesting find, no doubt, but calling it "most important ever" or saying that it definitively establishes the cause of the K-Pg extinction is a huge overstatement that is, alas, typical of modern science journalism. Such impact-associated death-beds are known in other places, e.g. the Eltanin impact of a 1-4km asteroid 2.5 million years ago has left death-beds with marine and terrestrial organisms all jumbled together in southern Andes. As others have noted above, and as is well known to paleontologists (below I follow the explanation given in K. Yes'kov, A History of the Earth and life on it, an excellent Russian high-school biology textbook), K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous. Furthermore, dinosaurs have started to have problems dozens of millions of years before K-Pg, when mammals had evolved to the point where they could start eating seeds ("rats"). Up to the middle of Cretaceous, there were no plant-eating mammals or true carnivores: early mammals were insectivores and non-specialized predators like hedgehogs and opossums, and therefore their density was too low to support carnivores ("foxes"). With the appearance of "rats", the density of small mammals could increase dramatically to exploit the much more abundant food base, and "foxes" became viable. This is the point where dinosaurs' problems began, because a baby dinosaur is small enough for "foxes" to hunt, but too small to be continuously active like large dinosaurs who relied on their size to work around cold-bloodedness, and way too small for them to protect. Dinosaurs tried both nest-protection and becoming smaller themselves, but it was too late: new dinosaur taxa stopped appearing and compensating the natural extinction rate, which according to paleontological data keeps steady all through Cretaceous.

    Candide III,

    To the best of my knowledge, everything you say is true.

    But, still… if this find is validated by other scientists, it is pretty amazing! (I was going to return to my childhood in the ’60s and just dub it “Super-Cool!”)

  53. @Mr. Anon
    I remember when the Alvarez's (Pere et Fils) theory was first proposed in 1980. The experts (paleontologists) mostly poo-poo-ed it. Eventually, 10-15 years later, they came around. It was a scientific revolution that I witnessed in my lifetime.

    Plate techtonics is similar. My geology textbook in high school around 1980 was still full of descriptions of geosynclines and uplifting with much handwaving to explain the driving forces.
    I’m sure techtonics was well established at the professional level by then, but that’s not how geology was taught to interested high schoolers at the time.
    DNA sequencing is, of course, another revolution in understanding that we are living through in real time.

  54. @Intelligent Dasein
    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read "Even when it's over, it's not really over."

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor "punctuated equilibrium," a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    Why haven’t interest rates spiked in response to the debt? The markets seem to accept it all as pretty normal.

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    The sixty four thousand dollar question.

    Because the currency exchange rate mechanism is broken. In the standard model, the U.S. as a nation that runs persistent trade deficits, should be forced to adjust the value of its currency relative to its trading partners. That and pay a high rate of interest on its Treasury bonds. China, of course, doesn't want to lose the U.S. as an export market so they link their currency to ours.

    Since oil is denominated in dollars and since the use of oil is expanding even into third world countries, demand for dollars is persistent. As long as our military can impose our will on the world, we can run deficits. When the music stops then it's everyone scrambling for a chair. And the big guns start popping.
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    Interest rates are extremely manipulated. The central banks of the world have bought huge amounts of treasury issuance. Even now, there are $11 trillion of government debt trading at negative interest rates. This is not a natural situation and were the central banks ever to unwind their balance sheets---as the Fed made the feeblest effort to do last year, which quickly sent the 10-year back above 3% and the stock market tanking---the whole Ponzi scheme would collapse.
  55. @Buzz Mohawk
    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter. I will leave it at that, with the caveat that I am not qualified to have an opinion of any importance.

    I am fascinated by the alternative and the direction it would, if true, necessarily lead some of our fundamental science. I am just shooting the shit around the campfire with (I hope) friends. Thanks for saying I do well. (I get discouraged.)

    You are indeed among friends here Buzz. I get a lot more out of this comments section than it gets out of me and you are a big part of it old buddy.

    • Agree: David
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Thanks.
  56. OT:
    Meanwhile in Zagreb, progressive trans activists are still Balkan men.

    “Patriarchy will go down in blood and flames!”

  57. @Tono Bungay
    The New Yorker article is far less certain about this than Sailer. DePalma's professional article will appear soon in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and while he has a strong view of what his discoveries mean, there is likely to be some scientific debate over them.

  58. @danand
    “My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.”

    Dasein, your Iron Law I’d be a fool to argue against. As far as the national debt goes, if the US takes as long as Japan to colapse, we may still yet have a ways to go with debt expansion. But surely Japan will “outlive” the US, and likely most countries of europe, as Japan has chosen to remain Japanese.


    Japan's government debt to GDP ratio sits at 236% in 2017, more than double that of the U.S., which stands at 108%, according to the International Monetary Fund.

     

    Interestingly Niall Ferguson has an article comparing the contented stability of Japan to Britain, and the West’s, current malaise in today’s Sunday Times.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-japan-must-pity-the-land-of-the-setting-sun-s7tbb5zqb

    His conclusion is immigration is the main difference, mass immigration is not compatible with a stable, conservative country.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    My answer is comment #218
  59. @Anonymous

    but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company
     
    What is it?

  60. @Intelligent Dasein
    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read "Even when it's over, it's not really over."

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor "punctuated equilibrium," a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    When you see Wells Fargo fail you’ll know the end is nigh.

  61. Very interesting stuff and timely, as I just got done telling my boy that this bit is just a theory, as he’d just learned something about the end for the dinosaurs in school. You know how boys love those dinosaurs! I’ll have to give him an update.

    With all this talk about calamity, it’s time for The Calmity Song by The Decemberists, a band for which I’ve not heard any other song that I like! I think it’s because their guitarist got help from REM’s Peter Buck on this one:

    All that remains is the arms of the angels ….“*

    * No, the lyrics don’t make any sense. That’s another REM thing.

    • Replies: @ChrisZ
    Achmed, I like their song “This is why we fight.” My impression is that it’s an anthem of defiance against the anti-human forces corroding our civilization. It has that distinctive White rock sound: cold and clear, like the north wind.

    (Admittedly, I know nothing about the Decembrists’ “politics,” so I make no claim for their intentions; these are just my thoughts as a listener.)
  62. @Nick Diaz
    It exploded with a force of 100 teratons of TNT. That is 2,000,000 X more powerful than the Tsar Bomba, the bomb detonated by the Soviet Union in 1961, which was the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated. Everything in a 200 mile radius from the impact was *vaporized* instantly or turned into plasma. The skin of a human would be burned out and the subcutaneous layer of fat would ignite at well over 1,000 miles distance. People at a distance of more than 3,000 miles from impact would only escape suffering third degree burns to their whole body due to the curvature of the Earth. Sauropods, animals that could weigh over 40 tons, were blown into the air like toothpicks more than 30 miles away by the shockwave at 3,000 miles from impact. This gives an idea of the scale of the thermal and kinetic energy represented by 100 teraton impact. The impact in fact sear the Earth's tectonic plates, unleashing an era of 100,000 years of super-volcano eruptions that would cover the Earth in debris blocking the Sun and killing 99% of all life on Earth. Here is a computer reconstruction of the impact: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpLY0YwMACE And here is a video of the Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear bomb ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1fM1OSpvaw As you can see, the meteor impact makes the Tsar Bomba seem like a firecracker in comparison.

    What was the strength of the Tunguska event in 1910? It was supposedly the largest impact event in history.

    • Replies: @Nick Diaz
    It wasn't. It was around 40 megatons. The largest human nuclear device ever was the Tsar Bomba, at around 50 megatons - 57 according to the physicists at Los Alamos. The Soviets might have underestimated it's power.

    It is debatable if Tunguska was caused by an asteroid impact. There is significant evidence that it was caused by a massive underground layer of stored methane gas igniting.

  63. The Deccan Traps event supposedly occurred about the same time as the Chicxulub asteroid. I saw something on TV once to make me think the two are related. A scientist shot a pellet at a glass orb, and the two most damaged spots on the orb were the impact site, and the spot on the complete opposite end of the impact spot. He used this to put forth his theory that an asteroid striking the earth could cause seismic and volcanic events on the opposite side of the earth. Leads me to wonder where Southern India was in relation to the Yucatán when the asteroid struck. Obviously they are not at polar opposite ends now, but due to continental drift maybe they could have been 66 million years ago.

  64. @Dieter Kief
    It is not impossible to outwit Hegel, but you have to get up quite early in order to do so.
    Here, you haven't, because Hegel knew perfectly well (he loved to laugh!), that our way of looking at the world is necessarily inconsistent at some point, which we don't know and can't determine. - Think of his famous remark about the ruse of reason. And make sure you read this remark right, which means, have emphasized especially the words ruse and reason.

    We are talking about Hegel? The genius who thought Goethe had figured out colours and Newton hadn’t? The genius who thought Newton didn’t understand Kepler’s laws?

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    If interested, you might want to have a look at: Olaf L: Müller, "Mehr Licht". Goethe mit Newton im Streit um die Farben", S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt/M, 2015
    Thing is: There is a group (!) of some dozen physicists worldwide checking the Newton-Goethe controversy. One astonishing detail: All (!) of Goethe's colour experiments replicate. And Goethe's colour theory is as consistent for those experts, as is Newtons.

    But with regard to Hegel - Philosophers need not be right about everything - not at all.

    In this context: Ernst Bloch once remarked, that many mistakes were more productive than lots of correct insights.
  65. @Buzz Mohawk
    A modest question: Will someone here explain how they can prove that this was not a local event, say a nearby volcanic eruption or meteorite impact?

    So that we don't have to actually read their paper or whatever.

    Also, how do they establish that this event, this piling up of a bunch of dead things, happened contemporaneously with the Yucatan impact? I'm sure it has to to with atomic identification of isotopes matching the big one, or some such thing... Yes, I know the layer has been identified all over the world, so I guess this pile of fish is inside that layer...

    And, um...(bong hit)... it can be timed to the hour... because that is the only explanation... because that is the only thing that happened so shut up.

    Yes, there was such an impact at Yucatan, but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company, so I will deny knowing about it. I will just believe that those happy diggers have closed the book with one spot of ground forever, the end of history, of dinosaurs -- some of whom were so massive that they could not live in present day gravity.

    My ass.

    For one thing, the article says that some of the fossil fish had tektites – i.e. glass beads ejected front the strike crater – lodged in their gills.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Yes. I'll admit those tektites are pretty hard evidence.

    If the effect got that far, then it must have gone widely around the world. I have always seen the impact hypothesis as perfectly reasonable, but I just don't think one site proves that the impact was the sole reason for the extinction, though it may have been.
  66. @Buzz Mohawk
    A modest question: Will someone here explain how they can prove that this was not a local event, say a nearby volcanic eruption or meteorite impact?

    So that we don't have to actually read their paper or whatever.

    Also, how do they establish that this event, this piling up of a bunch of dead things, happened contemporaneously with the Yucatan impact? I'm sure it has to to with atomic identification of isotopes matching the big one, or some such thing... Yes, I know the layer has been identified all over the world, so I guess this pile of fish is inside that layer...

    And, um...(bong hit)... it can be timed to the hour... because that is the only explanation... because that is the only thing that happened so shut up.

    Yes, there was such an impact at Yucatan, but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company, so I will deny knowing about it. I will just believe that those happy diggers have closed the book with one spot of ground forever, the end of history, of dinosaurs -- some of whom were so massive that they could not live in present day gravity.

    My ass.

    I’ve no idea what you are hinting at. But I have read about a calculation by a serious chap who decided that the big dinosaurs couldn’t have lived under an atmosphere that is much like ours. Their surface to volume ratio was so low that they’d have cooked slowly.

    Whether there exists a good response to this notion I don’t know.

  67. @Intelligent Dasein
    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read "Even when it's over, it's not really over."

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor "punctuated equilibrium," a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    The blast didn’t kill every dinosaur on the planet instantly (though it killed a bunch) but the aftermath (dust cloud blocking out the sun) must have killed the rest within a couple of years and the extinction of various food species killed the stragglers eventually. It was a different, less dinosaur friendly planet after the blast.

    • Replies: @HallParvey
    Except for alligators.
    , @Olorin
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2LsGdCAfkI0/UO1GlIOWy1I/AAAAAAAAJ2M/fs6PrBHa9hA/s320/harpy+eagle+image.jpg
    , @Hypnotoad666

    The blast didn’t kill every dinosaur on the planet instantly (though it killed a bunch) but the aftermath (dust cloud blocking out the sun) must have killed the rest within a couple of years
     
    That transitional die-out period would be fascinating to study -- for example, did the newly oppressive environment pretty much do in the dinos on its own? Or, did the mammals "pounce" by aggressively taking over the ecosystems before their cold-blooded competitors could even start to adapt?

    Even a few hundred years is like a nanosecond in the fossil records, so I suppose the details will remain inscrutable.
  68. @Anonymous

    but there is at least one other hypothesis about dinosaur extinction that no one will talk about in polite company
     
    What is it?

    That the Joos done it.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    You'll be happy to know the old-line WASPs were in on it too.

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/cc/f6/f7/ccf6f76a8e2d4cb5e4865dbd2ea30d97.jpg
  69. @Trevor H.
    Happened to hear Stage 3 this evening. Awesome song. Meanwhile sort of have to echo Buzz's skepticism that we could pin things down to an hour or so 100 million years ago. But unlike many of us here I'm not an expert paleontologist.

    Whatever the exact significance of DePalma’s find, we can safely credit the whole production to a dino deal horrendous.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
    terra ball
  70. @Steve Sailer
    Tektites are like beads of molten rock, like obsidian, that get flung up into space and then fall out of the sky at 100 to 200 mph terminal velocity. I'm not sure if they would kill a stegosaurus, but getting shot by God's own beebee gun couldn't have been fun.

    I doubt that the tektites are what killed the dinosaurs directly – it’s just that when they were lying there dead the tektites rained down upon them and upon the dead fish who had been sloshed out of the inland sea so what you have is like a crime scene – you have dead dinosaurs mixed with fish with tektite beads trapped in their gills. We dig up the crime scene and construct a scenario for what happened from the evidence. Maybe there is some other explanation for this crime scene but this sounds like a pretty plausible one.

  71. Dinosaurs are still living among us today. We call them crocodiles.

  72. @Dieter Kief
    Nightshift as nude sushi noodles I would understand (I have a mental picture, I have to admit). But nude sushi models? You made this one up to kid us - ok, now, hehe. Or is it otherwise?

    Google it. You know how in some sushi restaurants sushi comes presented on a boat? Substitute “girl” for “boat” and you’ll have it.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Jack, I would pay to set the table, well, would probably have to pay to set the table.
    , @dfordoom

    Google it. You know how in some sushi restaurants sushi comes presented on a boat? Substitute “girl” for “boat” and you’ll have it.
     
    Oh dear God. Damn you Jack, you persuaded me to google it and it's a real thing.
  73. jb says:

    If you are looking for nightmare fuel, let’s talk about Comet Swift-Tuttle (the comet responsible for the anual Perseid meteor shower). It’s 16 miles across (compared to the estimated 6 miles for the Chicxulub asteroid), and its orbit comes shockingly close to that of the the Earth — 86,000 miles. That means that in its present orbit it can’t hit the Earth, but it could pass between the Earth and the Moon, or even hit the Moon! According to this article there are currently only four sizable objects that can come this close to the earth: three asteroids less than 400 meters across; and Swift-Tuttle.

    For now we are safe — astronomers can project Swift-Tuttle’s orbit hundreds of years into the future and there are no close passes. But here’s the thing: comets do not have stable orbits. We can project their orbits for hundreds of years, but not millions, or even thousands. Swift-Tuttle could acquire an entirely different orbit that poses no danger to the Earth, or it could even be thrown out of the solar system or into the sun. Or it could hit the earth, and if did it would totally dwarf the Chicxulub event. One could imagine it wiping out not just humans and other mammals, but all vertebrate life.

    I said “humans” because, while the odds are low, this is something that could technically happen within the next few thousand years, and it’s entirely possible that humans, civilized or otherwise, could be around to see it. And while the odds are low, they aren’t as low as you might think. If you have a Powerball ticket in your wallet, the odds that you have won the jackpot are considerably worse. Frankly I’m kind of amazed that we don’t hear more about this, but given that there is probably nothing we could do to stop a 16 mile wide comet maybe it’s for the best.

    • Replies: @Kaganovitch
    Comets are not as dense as asteroids, though. Width is not the salient point, kinetic energy is.
  74. @Buzz Mohawk
    Actually, that's not it.

    BTW I buy the DePalma connection between Chicxulub and his dead fish full of stone BBs, but I don't buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct.

    Others here point out that scientific revolutions are preceded by ridicule and disbelief. There may be a big one coming along, and dinosaur extinction may be tangential evidence for it. If Science survives long enough, future generations will know.

    but I don’t buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct

    It was a combination of structural damage and burning fuel, but some speculate it was controlled demolitions.

    • LOL: MEH 0910
    • Replies: @donut
    It seems obvious to me that the evil mammalian supremacists dinocided and wiped out the the tolerant and inclusive dinosaurs . Reparations are due to their descendants . All reparations for the birds now !
    , @Mr. Anon
    The K-T extinction was an inside job!
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    Most suspicious is the way it was just allowed to happen. And never forget the dancing mammals.
  75. @Candide III
    It's a very interesting find, no doubt, but calling it "most important ever" or saying that it definitively establishes the cause of the K-Pg extinction is a huge overstatement that is, alas, typical of modern science journalism. Such impact-associated death-beds are known in other places, e.g. the Eltanin impact of a 1-4km asteroid 2.5 million years ago has left death-beds with marine and terrestrial organisms all jumbled together in southern Andes. As others have noted above, and as is well known to paleontologists (below I follow the explanation given in K. Yes'kov, A History of the Earth and life on it, an excellent Russian high-school biology textbook), K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous. Furthermore, dinosaurs have started to have problems dozens of millions of years before K-Pg, when mammals had evolved to the point where they could start eating seeds ("rats"). Up to the middle of Cretaceous, there were no plant-eating mammals or true carnivores: early mammals were insectivores and non-specialized predators like hedgehogs and opossums, and therefore their density was too low to support carnivores ("foxes"). With the appearance of "rats", the density of small mammals could increase dramatically to exploit the much more abundant food base, and "foxes" became viable. This is the point where dinosaurs' problems began, because a baby dinosaur is small enough for "foxes" to hunt, but too small to be continuously active like large dinosaurs who relied on their size to work around cold-bloodedness, and way too small for them to protect. Dinosaurs tried both nest-protection and becoming smaller themselves, but it was too late: new dinosaur taxa stopped appearing and compensating the natural extinction rate, which according to paleontological data keeps steady all through Cretaceous.

    Thanks for that. Here is a paper about the Eltanin impact: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258670208_The_Eltanin_asteroid_impact_Possible_South_Pacific_palaeomegatsunami_footprint_and_potential_implications_for_the_Pliocene-Pleistocene_transition

    On what basis do you say: “K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous.”? One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    1. Extinction began occurring the moment peak population was passed.
    2. Extinction occurred at the exact moment the final dinosaur died.

    But I don’t think either of those is very worthwhile. How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum? The magnitude of that difference seems important to me–not just observing that some decline had occurred.

    In any case, being able to make a find like this and then provide evidence resolving it to within an hour of an impact 66 million years ago is amazing IMHO.

    P.S. For those not up on the terminology (like me), K-Pg boundary is the new name for K-T boundary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_boundary
    Some background on the change: http://www.stratigraphy.org/bak/geowhen/tq.html

    • Replies: @Candide III
    > On what basis do you say “K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous.”?
    As I wrote above, I'm following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.
    > How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum?
    I don't know. See Intelligent Dasein's comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.
    > One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    The modern definition of "extinction" matches your (2), but I don't see the value of making such extreme arguments. Yes'kov (apparently he uses the spelling 'Eskov', my bad) quite reasonably (in my opinion) says that fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring. It does appeal to journalists and the general sensationally-minded public, and it may well be the case that the asteroid impact helped to finish it off quickly rather than lingering on in diminishing numbers for several millions of years more, or even survive in some African river caves like the coelacanth did in the Indian ocean. The important thing is that the group would have become ecologically marginal and nugatory, and this means that the important changes were those that had undermined the group's position in the first place. I'm sure Steve's readers can come up with any number of topical political analogies.
  76. @Jack D
    The blast didn't kill every dinosaur on the planet instantly (though it killed a bunch) but the aftermath (dust cloud blocking out the sun) must have killed the rest within a couple of years and the extinction of various food species killed the stragglers eventually. It was a different, less dinosaur friendly planet after the blast.

    Except for alligators.

  77. One wonders how the dinos that evolved into birds survived. What was the secret of their success?

  78. @Intelligent Dasein
    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read "Even when it's over, it's not really over."

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor "punctuated equilibrium," a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There have also been a couple of tests (e.g. the Eyferth Study) which show blacks and whites have approximately the same IQ.

    When dealing with social science or historical events, go with the preponderance of evidence and ignore those lonely outliers that might have good explanations for why they don’t fit with nearly everything else you’re seeing.

  79. We’re here-asaurus, we’re queer-asaurus was funnier, but I doubt that one is in public domain.

  80. @Nick Diaz
    It exploded with a force of 100 teratons of TNT. That is 2,000,000 X more powerful than the Tsar Bomba, the bomb detonated by the Soviet Union in 1961, which was the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated. Everything in a 200 mile radius from the impact was *vaporized* instantly or turned into plasma. The skin of a human would be burned out and the subcutaneous layer of fat would ignite at well over 1,000 miles distance. People at a distance of more than 3,000 miles from impact would only escape suffering third degree burns to their whole body due to the curvature of the Earth. Sauropods, animals that could weigh over 40 tons, were blown into the air like toothpicks more than 30 miles away by the shockwave at 3,000 miles from impact. This gives an idea of the scale of the thermal and kinetic energy represented by 100 teraton impact. The impact in fact sear the Earth's tectonic plates, unleashing an era of 100,000 years of super-volcano eruptions that would cover the Earth in debris blocking the Sun and killing 99% of all life on Earth. Here is a computer reconstruction of the impact: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpLY0YwMACE And here is a video of the Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear bomb ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1fM1OSpvaw As you can see, the meteor impact makes the Tsar Bomba seem like a firecracker in comparison.

    Nick, I must say I’m impressed that even when you’re posting something totally apolitical, you still manage to come across like a petulant a-hole.

  81. @Buzz Mohawk
    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter. I will leave it at that, with the caveat that I am not qualified to have an opinion of any importance.

    I am fascinated by the alternative and the direction it would, if true, necessarily lead some of our fundamental science. I am just shooting the shit around the campfire with (I hope) friends. Thanks for saying I do well. (I get discouraged.)

    Quit playing games. Say what the theory is, or shut up.

  82. @Nick Diaz
    It exploded with a force of 100 teratons of TNT. That is 2,000,000 X more powerful than the Tsar Bomba, the bomb detonated by the Soviet Union in 1961, which was the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated. Everything in a 200 mile radius from the impact was *vaporized* instantly or turned into plasma. The skin of a human would be burned out and the subcutaneous layer of fat would ignite at well over 1,000 miles distance. People at a distance of more than 3,000 miles from impact would only escape suffering third degree burns to their whole body due to the curvature of the Earth. Sauropods, animals that could weigh over 40 tons, were blown into the air like toothpicks more than 30 miles away by the shockwave at 3,000 miles from impact. This gives an idea of the scale of the thermal and kinetic energy represented by 100 teraton impact. The impact in fact sear the Earth's tectonic plates, unleashing an era of 100,000 years of super-volcano eruptions that would cover the Earth in debris blocking the Sun and killing 99% of all life on Earth. Here is a computer reconstruction of the impact: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpLY0YwMACE And here is a video of the Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear bomb ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1fM1OSpvaw As you can see, the meteor impact makes the Tsar Bomba seem like a firecracker in comparison.

    Awesome Video> Thanks for posting.

  83. @anon
    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That's a mighty powerful explosion.

    Wow. Awesome resolution on their time measurements there.

    Perhaps they could give us the time of death for Jesus Christ just from his shroud.

  84. @Nick Diaz
    It exploded with a force of 100 teratons of TNT. That is 2,000,000 X more powerful than the Tsar Bomba, the bomb detonated by the Soviet Union in 1961, which was the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated. Everything in a 200 mile radius from the impact was *vaporized* instantly or turned into plasma. The skin of a human would be burned out and the subcutaneous layer of fat would ignite at well over 1,000 miles distance. People at a distance of more than 3,000 miles from impact would only escape suffering third degree burns to their whole body due to the curvature of the Earth. Sauropods, animals that could weigh over 40 tons, were blown into the air like toothpicks more than 30 miles away by the shockwave at 3,000 miles from impact. This gives an idea of the scale of the thermal and kinetic energy represented by 100 teraton impact. The impact in fact sear the Earth's tectonic plates, unleashing an era of 100,000 years of super-volcano eruptions that would cover the Earth in debris blocking the Sun and killing 99% of all life on Earth. Here is a computer reconstruction of the impact: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpLY0YwMACE And here is a video of the Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear bomb ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1fM1OSpvaw As you can see, the meteor impact makes the Tsar Bomba seem like a firecracker in comparison.

    Even with the parachute attached to the bomb I’m a little surprised that the aircrew got far enough away to be safe .

    • Replies: @RickinJax
    I believe it was dropped from a tower
    , @Nick Diaz
    They were actually concerned with that. They painted the aircraft with a special reflective paint to further decrease the thermal damage to the aircraft.

    Here is another interesting fact: the original design of the bomb was 100 megatons, but they had to scale it down by half because there was simply no way that the aircraft carrying the pilots could get away in time.

    The Soviet Russians invented a special three-stage nuclear device that allowed the explosive power to be pushed above the limit for thermonuclear bombs, which at that time capped at ~20 megatons. The practical application of such bomb was limited, though, because it was too heavy to be propelled by conventional ICBMs.
  85. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    but I don’t buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct
     
    It was a combination of structural damage and burning fuel, but some speculate it was controlled demolitions.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/elVypOEKQRc/maxresdefault.jpg

    It seems obvious to me that the evil mammalian supremacists dinocided and wiped out the the tolerant and inclusive dinosaurs . Reparations are due to their descendants . All reparations for the birds now !

    • LOL: MBlanc46
  86. @anonymous
    wwebd said , and I quote ----- "Furtive juvenile delinquent smoking" ....
    followed by picture of dinosaurs smoking cigarettes outside a dinosaur high school, looking out for the vice principal.

    peak Sailer.
    Seriously, that is good wordsmithing.

    BTW, Luis Alvarez was a genius too.

    Gary Larson and his “Far Side” cartoons are an American classic.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    #1) Far Side
    #2) Calvin and Hobbs
  87. @Steve Sailer
    Tektites are like beads of molten rock, like obsidian, that get flung up into space and then fall out of the sky at 100 to 200 mph terminal velocity. I'm not sure if they would kill a stegosaurus, but getting shot by God's own beebee gun couldn't have been fun.

    Steve, or knock your eye out.

  88. @Jack D
    Google it. You know how in some sushi restaurants sushi comes presented on a boat? Substitute "girl" for "boat" and you'll have it.

    Jack, I would pay to set the table, well, would probably have to pay to set the table.

  89. @obwandiyag
    I'll bet you it's more complicated than that.

    Ah yes, Ockham’s Rube Goldberg Machine, the favorite of aggrieved gnostics everywhere.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    Then again, there is the celebrity connection/secrecy. Piltdown probability
    5-10%?
  90. Speaking about fossils, are there any recent sightings of a non-extinct Ruth Bader Ginsburg?

  91. According to the New Yorker, the consensus is the Deccan Trap killed off around 75% of animal life hundreds of thousands of years before the meteor, the meteor just took it up to 99.9%. De Palma’s find doesn’t change that, nor does he claim that it does.

    The reason the Hell Creek find is such a big deal is it’s the only place where they have fossils at the time of impact, while most other fossils are far above or below the KT Boundary.

    Hot damn, I feel like an expert on this stuff and all it took was reading a single article.

    • Replies: @res
    This is the New Yorker article, right?
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/08/the-day-the-dinosaurs-died

    Where do you see this?


    According to the New Yorker, the consensus is the Deccan Trap killed off around 75% of animal life hundreds of thousands of years before the meteor, the meteor just took it up to 99.9%.
     
    The only mention of the Deccan Trap I see in that article is this:

    In 2010, forty-one researchers in many scientific disciplines announced, in a landmark Science article, that the issue should be considered settled: a huge asteroid impact caused the extinction. But opposition to the idea remains passionate. The main competing hypothesis is that the colossal “Deccan” volcanic eruptions, in what would become India, spewed enough sulfur and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to cause a climatic shift. The eruptions, which began before the KT impact and continued after it, were among the biggest in Earth’s history, lasting hundreds of thousands of years, and burying half a million square miles of the Earth’s surface a mile deep in lava. The three-­metre gap below the KT layer, proponents argued, was evidence that the mass extinction was well under way by the time of the asteroid strike.
     
  92. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    but I don’t buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct
     
    It was a combination of structural damage and burning fuel, but some speculate it was controlled demolitions.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/elVypOEKQRc/maxresdefault.jpg

    The K-T extinction was an inside job!

  93. @Candide III
    It's a very interesting find, no doubt, but calling it "most important ever" or saying that it definitively establishes the cause of the K-Pg extinction is a huge overstatement that is, alas, typical of modern science journalism. Such impact-associated death-beds are known in other places, e.g. the Eltanin impact of a 1-4km asteroid 2.5 million years ago has left death-beds with marine and terrestrial organisms all jumbled together in southern Andes. As others have noted above, and as is well known to paleontologists (below I follow the explanation given in K. Yes'kov, A History of the Earth and life on it, an excellent Russian high-school biology textbook), K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous. Furthermore, dinosaurs have started to have problems dozens of millions of years before K-Pg, when mammals had evolved to the point where they could start eating seeds ("rats"). Up to the middle of Cretaceous, there were no plant-eating mammals or true carnivores: early mammals were insectivores and non-specialized predators like hedgehogs and opossums, and therefore their density was too low to support carnivores ("foxes"). With the appearance of "rats", the density of small mammals could increase dramatically to exploit the much more abundant food base, and "foxes" became viable. This is the point where dinosaurs' problems began, because a baby dinosaur is small enough for "foxes" to hunt, but too small to be continuously active like large dinosaurs who relied on their size to work around cold-bloodedness, and way too small for them to protect. Dinosaurs tried both nest-protection and becoming smaller themselves, but it was too late: new dinosaur taxa stopped appearing and compensating the natural extinction rate, which according to paleontological data keeps steady all through Cretaceous.

    Very interesting comment, thanks for sharing.

    This theory is especially plausible since we’ve seen the destruction small mammals have wrought on island bird and reptile species in the Modern era. Dinosaurs literally went the way of the Dodo, who would have thought.

  94. Still not entirely convinced the Jews didn’t have something to do with the dinosaurs’ extinction. It’s not hard to see them emigrating to the dinosaurs’ ancestral lands and using their control over the media and education systems to discredit the dinosaurs’ proud history, recasting it as an endlesss dynamic of victimization and struggle, as part of their effort to delegitimize the dinosaurs, all while encouraging them to mate outside their own species.

    The real question is, what did the dinosaurs do to make the Jews so angry?

  95. So the great asteroid struck 66 million years ago?

    Oh, and the earth rests at a reverse 66 degree angle, and rotates at 66.6 million MPH?

    Wonderful.

  96. @Hypnotoad666
    Very cool discovery. Real crater of doom stuff. Apparently, the catastrophic effects of the asteroid strike in the Yucatan reached North Dakota in a matter of minutes.

    seismic waves likely arrived within 10 minutes of the impact from what would have been the equivalent of a magnitude 10 or 11 earthquake, creating a seiche (pronounced saysh), a standing wave, in the inland sea that is similar to water sloshing in a bathtub during an earthquake.
     
    This standing wave sloshed thousands of fish onto the shore where molton glass beads proceeded to rain down on them. Some of these beads (known as tektites) were recovered after being perfectly preserved in amber.

    Man, one asteroid strike can ruin your whole day. I now officially support Trump's Space Force (assuming asteroid defense is part of the mission.)

    Was it caused by climate change?

  97. That was a super-impressive academic find. Women on Etsy will be selling tektite necklaces, trying to capitalize off of the geological discovery. Sixty-six million years ago, where was Rep. Cortez to save the sturgeon from extinction via glass beads?

  98. @res
    Thanks for that. Here is a paper about the Eltanin impact: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258670208_The_Eltanin_asteroid_impact_Possible_South_Pacific_palaeomegatsunami_footprint_and_potential_implications_for_the_Pliocene-Pleistocene_transition

    On what basis do you say: "K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous."? One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    1. Extinction began occurring the moment peak population was passed.
    2. Extinction occurred at the exact moment the final dinosaur died.

    But I don't think either of those is very worthwhile. How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum? The magnitude of that difference seems important to me--not just observing that some decline had occurred.

    In any case, being able to make a find like this and then provide evidence resolving it to within an hour of an impact 66 million years ago is amazing IMHO.

    P.S. For those not up on the terminology (like me), K-Pg boundary is the new name for K-T boundary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_boundary
    Some background on the change: http://www.stratigraphy.org/bak/geowhen/tq.html

    > On what basis do you say “K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous.”?
    As I wrote above, I’m following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.
    > How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum?
    I don’t know. See Intelligent Dasein’s comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.
    > One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    The modern definition of “extinction” matches your (2), but I don’t see the value of making such extreme arguments. Yes’kov (apparently he uses the spelling ‘Eskov’, my bad) quite reasonably (in my opinion) says that fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring. It does appeal to journalists and the general sensationally-minded public, and it may well be the case that the asteroid impact helped to finish it off quickly rather than lingering on in diminishing numbers for several millions of years more, or even survive in some African river caves like the coelacanth did in the Indian ocean. The important thing is that the group would have become ecologically marginal and nugatory, and this means that the important changes were those that had undermined the group’s position in the first place. I’m sure Steve’s readers can come up with any number of topical political analogies.

    • Replies: @res

    As I wrote above, I’m following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.
     
    Can you give a reference (in English) that outlines their views? Which general systems principles do you see as being relevant here?

    See Intelligent Dasein’s comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.
     
    If there is only one case, I think a dating error is likely. My understanding is radiometric dating has an accuracy within about 1%. At 66 MYA that is suspiciously close to the o.7 million year figure. Given the lack of fossils in the period below the K-Pg boundary I think a reasonable test would be to look at the distribution of dates found near the K-Pg boundary. If that looks like a normal curve (which means there would be dates "after" the boundary) that seems like a decent argument for a relatively hard boundary.

    fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring.
     
    This seems like the key point. Which was why I asked about how far the population was down from its peak. A more relevant metric would be how the dinosaur population varied over the entire Mesozoic era IMHO.
    , @RickinJax
    How do you become an ex- physicist? Excommunication?
    , @gcochran
    There's no evidence that dinosaurs were in decline before the impact.

    As for later fossil dinosaurs, you have to worry about erosion and redeposition.
  99. @Reg Cæsar
    There goes the case for saurogenic global warming. It wasn't dinoflatulence after all.

    Michael Mann will soon miraculously produce a hockey stick graph (sorry, but you can’t see all of the data) that will undoubtedly prove dinoflatulence was responsible the dinosaur extinction. And AOC will champion more funding for his pathetic Penn State sinecure. The graph will be peer-reviewed by clapping seal professors living off government grants with a 99.99% approval rate that is echoed endlessly by vapid Hollywood celebrities and the media dolts. It will also be the basis for Al Gore’s next lucrative propaganda movie to be forced on American schoolchildren for another generation.

  100. His Tanis site in North Dakota shows the remains of huge numbers of creatures killed within an hour of the comet or asteroid that struck the earth 66 million years ago, rendering dinosaurs extinct:

    You’re out of rock salt. Need more rock salt.

  101. @Desiderius
    Ah yes, Ockham's Rube Goldberg Machine, the favorite of aggrieved gnostics everywhere.

    Then again, there is the celebrity connection/secrecy. Piltdown probability
    5-10%?

  102. Anon[207] • Disclaimer says:
    @El Dato
    IIRC the Deccan Traps supervolcano was suspiciously close in time and suspiciously near "the other side of the globe" to have considered as causally related. If the rock splatter, and the nuclear winter and lack of food doesn't get you, here comes the volcano!

    There are many things out there dangerous to big animals:

    Just 2.6 million years ago:

    Researchers consider whether supernovae killed off large ocean animals at dawn of Pleistocene

    “As far back as the mid-1990s, people said, ‘Hey, look for iron-60. It’s a telltale because there’s no other way for it to get to Earth but from a supernova.’ Because iron-60 is radioactive, if it was formed with the Earth it would be long gone by now. So, it had to have been rained down on us. There’s some debate about whether there was only one supernova really nearby or a whole chain of them. I kind of favor a combo of the two — a big chain with one that was unusually powerful and close. If you look at iron-60 residue, there’s a huge spike 2.6 million years ago, but there’s excess scattered clear back 10 million years.”
     

    I did a bunch of research a while back on the impact of a 6-mile rock impact on the planet (which is the size of the Yucatan impact), and I doubt an impact in the Yucatan was enough to kill off all the dinosaurs on the planet. As was noted, if you look at a map of the globe about the time of the Yucatan impact, the Deccan Traps in India are on the opposite side of the globe, and I mean almost exactly.

    When a 6-mile rock hits the planet, it’ll have enough force to send a shock wave that goes past the Earth’s mantle. Most of the rock will disintegrate on impact, but the important thing here is the force of a punch that manages to send a blast through the Earth’s stiffer outer crust. Once it manages to break through this crust, it’ll send a shock wave through the Earth’s molten liquid interior, and that shock will keep going all the way to the other side of the planet.

    Liquid transmits the force of a shock wave a lot better than solids do. Go to Youtube and look at someone shooting a bullet into a block of ballistics gel on Youtube. The whole block wobbles under the impact. The Earth’s molten interior operates like a gel. Shoot a rock into it with enough force, and the gel will wobble and the seal on the gel will ‘pop’ open on the opposite side of the impact if it hits hard enough. This is enough to break the earth’s crust on the other and send matter spewing out.

    What started up around the time of the impact? The Deccan Traps on the other side of the planet. They began to spew away for 30K years.

    A very important point people miss is that the Deccan Traps were almost right on the equator at the time. The volcanic gasses emitted were in exactly the right position to enter the jet steams of both Northern and Southern hemispheres, which means the whole planet got nailed with poisonous volcano emissions. Plants in both hemisheres died, and anything further up the food chain lost its food supply.

    To put it bluntly, 30K years of murderous death is a lot of effective at killing off life on a planet than a 1 second impact.

  103. @Buffalo Joe
    Gary Larson and his "Far Side" cartoons are an American classic.

    #1) Far Side
    #2) Calvin and Hobbs

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Ach, #3 Bloom County.
  104. @obwandiyag
    I'll bet you it's more complicated than that.

    Way more. It’s lack of paleontological diversity.

  105. @Mr. Anon
    I remember when the Alvarez's (Pere et Fils) theory was first proposed in 1980. The experts (paleontologists) mostly poo-poo-ed it. Eventually, 10-15 years later, they came around. It was a scientific revolution that I witnessed in my lifetime.

    Walter Alvarez gave a Berkeley Physics Department colloquium in the early 80’s on his theory and the evidence. I was an undergrad at the time, and the intensity of the opposition by the paleontologist and geologists who showed up made quite an impression on me. They *really* didn’t like the idea of a sudden catastrophic event.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
    • Replies: @res

    the intensity of the opposition by the paleontologist and geologists who showed up made quite an impression on me. They *really* didn’t like the idea of a sudden catastrophic event.
     
    Can you (or Dave) give an idea of how much of their opposition was presented in a reasoned way and how much was pointing and sputtering (or equivalent)?
  106. Damnit Steve! My Mrs. and I are really upset with you right now!

    That was one of our favorite Far Side cartoons!

  107. @Jenner Ickham Errican

    but I don’t buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct
     
    It was a combination of structural damage and burning fuel, but some speculate it was controlled demolitions.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/elVypOEKQRc/maxresdefault.jpg

    Most suspicious is the way it was just allowed to happen. And never forget the dancing mammals.

    • Replies: @Dave Bowman
    I have the impression you don't take this site quite as seriously as you used to.
  108. You think this is about dinosaurs? Ha! What its really about is an evil white man colonialist ignoring native perspectives on the land. How dare the New Yorker not include indigenous perspectives on the K-Pg event! Cause, as we all know, when I wanna know what happened 66 million year ago, its best to ask a stone age culture with untainted by evil Western Science.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    By embracing anarchist geographies as kaleidoscopic spatialities that allow for non-hierarchical connections between autonomous entities, Springer configures a new political imagination.

     

    I would be most surprised if Prof Springer is happy about "non-hierarchical connections between autonomous entities" should they involve unregistered firearms. Much "anarchism" is hot air.

    LinkedIn does show a Simon Springer in Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire, who is "Director of Guns R Us". I doubt this is the same one as the author, who is placed at the Universities of Newcastle (Australia) and British Columbia.
    , @YetAnotherAnon
    Crocker then moans about a paper printing her tweet rather than asking her for a comment.

    "Hey @thewire_in is it your standard practice to just take commentary from Twitter instead of give people the chance to consent to being featured?

    Not an expert, but seems unprofessional to me."
     

    I didn't know there were any indigenous people around 66 million years ago anyway.

    Ms Crocker's feed is extremely woke. She retweets someone who claims that Jeanine Pirro's "an example must be made of the traitorous treasonous group that accused Donald Trump" is "absolutely a call for the mass slaughter of political enemies".

  109. @Hypnotoad666
    For one thing, the article says that some of the fossil fish had tektites - i.e. glass beads ejected front the strike crater - lodged in their gills.

    Yes. I’ll admit those tektites are pretty hard evidence.

    If the effect got that far, then it must have gone widely around the world. I have always seen the impact hypothesis as perfectly reasonable, but I just don’t think one site proves that the impact was the sole reason for the extinction, though it may have been.

  110. @Jack D
    The blast didn't kill every dinosaur on the planet instantly (though it killed a bunch) but the aftermath (dust cloud blocking out the sun) must have killed the rest within a couple of years and the extinction of various food species killed the stragglers eventually. It was a different, less dinosaur friendly planet after the blast.

    • Replies: @MEH 0910
    The Simpsons - Queen Of The Harpies
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUxm1ray8vw
  111. @Mr. Anon

    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That’s a mighty powerful explosion.
     
    Something like 13 billion megatons.

    100-300 million megatons is the correct figure if memory serves, it may have been 13 billion times the Hiroshima bomb. I think 100 million megatons is 7 billion Hiroshimas.

    • Replies: @International Jew
    Thanks. That makes it sound a lot less bad.
    , @Mr. Anon
    See my comment below
    , @Mr. Anon

    100-300 million megatons is the correct figure if memory serves, it may have been 13 billion times the Hiroshima bomb. I think 100 million megatons is 7 billion Hiroshimas.
     
    There doesn't appear to be as much work on this topic as I would have thought, at least not that I can tell from a cursory Google search (hey - I don't have all day - but I have become fairly adept at this). The most cited paper I could find was from 1997, and it places the yield from the impact in the range of 170,000 - 810,000 megatons.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JE01743
  112. This also seems importantish:

    • Agree: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Excellent. This means there will be more development of the thorium process. Nuclear is the answer to any large-scale question about clean generation of electricity.
    , @Hypnotoad666
    Except for pouring money down the rathole of education reform, Gates is generally putting his chips on the right issues.
  113. @adreadline
    Color me suspicious that if researchers could travel back 66 million years in time, did so, and got high-resolution, time stamped pictures or even video of Earth years before the Chicxulub impact, the impact itself, and Earth in the years after it, you and folks like you would still be saying that.

    Now try quizzing them on the contents of the original Science article (June 1980).

    What we’re witnessing with this reactionary contrarianism is parallel to what we see in “news” media and “social” “science”: rhetorical strategies posing or regarded as factual or scientific argumentation…on the grounds of having/finding an outlet/audience. And hopefully therefore advertising revenue/clicks! (The parallel in the Ed Biz is enrollment figures…or number of campuses consulted-for; more in a moment on that.)

    It’s related to what we see in the fury at/rejection of “human biodiversity.” Which itself is a palatable layer wrapped around the red pill of nature refusing to conform to redistributionist political fantasies.

    As for Alvarez pere, never forget that there were people deeply angry at him for decades for testifying before the AEC that J. Robert Oppenheimer was a security risk.

    The “crisis in news media” (their exposure to fat-part-of-the-bell-curvians as propagandists, useful idiots, spies/leakers, and Service Animals to the powerful) parallels the “crisis in the social sciences” (where among other things the “crisis of replicability” signals how much work in these fields is propaganda/useful idiocy/the barking of Service Animals).

    Pursuit of the truth takes back seat to getting headlines, clicks, and jobs. And this is as true in the Ed Biz as in any other sector now.

    For what it’s worth, the Alvarez hypothesis, which appeared a year prior to my finding myself in the company of robust evolutionary biologists, was the issue that first opened my eyes to the institutional communications aspect of academic discourse. It was astonishing to see utter bullshit become a supposedly serious topic of discussion merely because somebody had an old college friend who couldn’t get a job in their field, so became a journo “expert” on it. Or because somebody had a conference slot to fill and thought it would be exciting to host a rhubarb. Or because some new and mediocre faculty hire realized they could get noticed not on the quality of their science, but the decibels of their contrarianism…and popularity with some students.

    Stop me before I digress into the parallel trainwrecks of tightly held globo infotainment companies taking over both news reporting and academic publishing.

    It’s not just the social sciences that are in truth-crisis. Professorships in the sciences have long been at a premium. There are way more Ph.D.s minted than can ever be employed. Though the McEdBiz boom of the ’70s mopped up some of the surplus for a few decades.

    Thus the vaudevillian skills of securing attention and applause through novelty acts have come a long way since the ’80s, vastly accelerated by the automation of communication of the past ten years. So it’s no surprise I guess that reactionary contrarianism as a strategy has accelerated as well. I mean, it’s not like they study the trivium in the Departments of Demographic Pandering For Debt Profit.

    https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2017/01/13/upcoming-trends-2017-colleges-should-prepare-essay

    https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/call-action-marketing-and-communications-higher-education/communicating-value-university

    https://petersonrudgersgroup.com/about-us/

    • Replies: @JMcG
    Great comment sir: Thank You.
  114. Ah yes, Ockham’s Rube Goldberg Machine, the favorite of aggrieved gnostics everywhere

    .

    I think “Occam’s Heath Robinson machine” would be more appropriate.

  115. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    Whatever the exact significance of DePalma’s find, we can safely credit the whole production to a dino deal horrendous.

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xKL51jTYJcs/WMYrt956FaI/AAAAAAAAOrk/jH_KdtqXorUc_yQrVLpKbYNVLbF2IXt7QCLcB/s320/dino%2Bde%2Blaurentiis%2B1970s%2Bglasses%2B-%2BCopy.jpg

    terra ball

  116. @Unladen Swallow
    100-300 million megatons is the correct figure if memory serves, it may have been 13 billion times the Hiroshima bomb. I think 100 million megatons is 7 billion Hiroshimas.

    Thanks. That makes it sound a lot less bad.

  117. @Hypnotoad666
    Very cool discovery. Real crater of doom stuff. Apparently, the catastrophic effects of the asteroid strike in the Yucatan reached North Dakota in a matter of minutes.

    seismic waves likely arrived within 10 minutes of the impact from what would have been the equivalent of a magnitude 10 or 11 earthquake, creating a seiche (pronounced saysh), a standing wave, in the inland sea that is similar to water sloshing in a bathtub during an earthquake.
     
    This standing wave sloshed thousands of fish onto the shore where molton glass beads proceeded to rain down on them. Some of these beads (known as tektites) were recovered after being perfectly preserved in amber.

    Man, one asteroid strike can ruin your whole day. I now officially support Trump's Space Force (assuming asteroid defense is part of the mission.)

    Trump, build the asteroid shield!

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    Give em’ time, they just got to EMP attacks last week.
  118. @adreadline
    Color me suspicious that if researchers could travel back 66 million years in time, did so, and got high-resolution, time stamped pictures or even video of Earth years before the Chicxulub impact, the impact itself, and Earth in the years after it, you and folks like you would still be saying that.

    YouTube would be filling up with frame-by-frame debunkings of the video evidence. More evidence = more material to debunk.

  119. @Buzz Mohawk
    Most suspicious is the way it was just allowed to happen. And never forget the dancing mammals.

    I have the impression you don’t take this site quite as seriously as you used to.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    I don't take anything as seriously as I used to.

    Loved you in 2001 BTW. I used to know the guy who played you.

  120. “Dang white guys and their discoveries improving human knowledge.”
    —-The Left.

  121. @Reg Cæsar
    There goes the case for saurogenic global warming. It wasn't dinoflatulence after all.

    I thought this was going to be about archeological proof of Russian collusion.

  122. You see, the theme that is constantly overlooked is magic real estate. The big, four footed dinosaurs lived in unlucky real estate and the smart, two legged dinosaurs lived in good real estate. That’s why when the meteor struck it took out all the unlucky dinosaurs.

    To make things right, we need to research and recreate the DNA of all the extinct dinosaurs, bring them to life, and give them our best lands. Global warming will help rectify matter further.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
    Ahhh, you mean Magic Dirt and Tragic Dirt all over again.

    Or, is that, originalism. Can anyone really see the penumbras?
  123. OT: More news from Chavez Ravine

    Man on life support after fight outside Dodger Stadium

    It seems a Mr. Rafael Reyna got his skull cracked in a parking lot fight after a six-hour game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

    Christel Reyna said her husband, Rafael Reyna, sustained a skull fracture and is on life support following the encounter early Saturday morning.

    Reyna said she was on the phone with her husband as he was leaving the stadium and heard a woman and a man arguing with him. She said she heard a crack and then her husband started moaning.

    The injury probably has something to do with launch angle.

    • Replies: @Clyde

    It seems a Mr. Rafael Reyna got his skull cracked in a parking lot fight after a six-hour game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
     
    Do they cut 0ff beer sales after say the 11th inning? I guess not.

    Dodgers fall to Diamondbacks, 5-4, in longest regular ...
    https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-diamondbacks-20190329-story.html
    Mar 30, 2019 · The Arizona Diamondbacks broke the stalemate in the 13th inning with a run-scoring double that handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 5-4 loss in a game that lasted more than six hours.
  124. @Buzz Mohawk
    OT: More news from Chavez Ravine

    Man on life support after fight outside Dodger Stadium

    It seems a Mr. Rafael Reyna got his skull cracked in a parking lot fight after a six-hour game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.


    Christel Reyna said her husband, Rafael Reyna, sustained a skull fracture and is on life support following the encounter early Saturday morning.

    Reyna said she was on the phone with her husband as he was leaving the stadium and heard a woman and a man arguing with him. She said she heard a crack and then her husband started moaning.
     

    The injury probably has something to do with launch angle.

    It seems a Mr. Rafael Reyna got his skull cracked in a parking lot fight after a six-hour game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

    Do they cut 0ff beer sales after say the 11th inning? I guess not.

    Dodgers fall to Diamondbacks, 5-4, in longest regular …
    https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-diamondbacks-20190329-story.html
    Mar 30, 2019 · The Arizona Diamondbacks broke the stalemate in the 13th inning with a run-scoring double that handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 5-4 loss in a game that lasted more than six hours.

  125. Am I the only human who doesn’t really care how dinosaurs went extinct? I mean, anymore than I care about other extinct species, despite dinosaurs being pretty cool.

    As a Land Before Time fan, I must say Diversity killed them. All those species living together in the Great Valley? No, sir.

    • Replies: @songbird
    I don't know: the idea of asteroid impact is kind of scary - plenty of ammo still left in the solar system.
    , @Brutusale
    As long as the asteroid/comet didn't kill her!

    https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Ffile770.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fraquel-welch-1-million-BC.jpg&f=1
  126. @Mr. Anon
    I remember when the Alvarez's (Pere et Fils) theory was first proposed in 1980. The experts (paleontologists) mostly poo-poo-ed it. Eventually, 10-15 years later, they came around. It was a scientific revolution that I witnessed in my lifetime.

    >>It was a scientific revolution that I witnessed in my lifetime.

    It’s held up a lot better than that string theory, also developed late ’70s early ’80s.

  127. @Jack D
    The blast didn't kill every dinosaur on the planet instantly (though it killed a bunch) but the aftermath (dust cloud blocking out the sun) must have killed the rest within a couple of years and the extinction of various food species killed the stragglers eventually. It was a different, less dinosaur friendly planet after the blast.

    The blast didn’t kill every dinosaur on the planet instantly (though it killed a bunch) but the aftermath (dust cloud blocking out the sun) must have killed the rest within a couple of years

    That transitional die-out period would be fascinating to study — for example, did the newly oppressive environment pretty much do in the dinos on its own? Or, did the mammals “pounce” by aggressively taking over the ecosystems before their cold-blooded competitors could even start to adapt?

    Even a few hundred years is like a nanosecond in the fossil records, so I suppose the details will remain inscrutable.

  128. @Mr. Anon
    I remember when the Alvarez's (Pere et Fils) theory was first proposed in 1980. The experts (paleontologists) mostly poo-poo-ed it. Eventually, 10-15 years later, they came around. It was a scientific revolution that I witnessed in my lifetime.

    Plate tectonics was derided as quakery until the 60s.

    Going to bring out our JIDF contingent on this one but the best thing that could happen to physics would be if the worship of Einstein could be set aside.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Plate tectonics was derided as quackery until the 60s.
     
    Which is pretty amazing and educating of how science works. As a kid with a rather nice globe, I came up with the same idea independently - simply because it was screaming obvious just looking at the the globe. Sure, one or two complementarities could have been random but when inspection shows clear signs of over 10 of them, the probability of an accidental similarity quickly goes down to near zero.
  129. Probably even more OT: The Great White Defendant is not extinct in NYC.

    https://nypost.com/2019/03/31/kristaps-porzingis-reportedly-called-black-woman-my-slave-as-he-beat-raped-her/

    Former Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis allegedly called a black woman a “slave” and a “b—h” as he beat and raped her, according to a report.

    The 7-foot-3 athlete, who is white, is accused of referring to the woman as “my b—h” and “my slave,” adding that he owned her, during the alleged Feb. 7, 2018, sex assault in Porzingis’s Manhattan penthouse, according to TMZ.

    The woman made the claim to cops, the Web site said.

    Law-enforcement sources told The Post — which broke the story Saturday that the NYPD is investigating the rape allegation against the hoops star — that they could not immediately confirm that he used the vile language.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    Speaking of OT but iSteve-y news, there's been a wave of likely hate hoaxing in Portland for fun and profit:

    https://nypost.com/2019/03/30/inside-the-suspicious-rise-of-gay-hate-crimes-in-portland/
    , @Buffalo Joe
    dunc, "...vile language?" He was probably singing a rap tune to her.
  130. @Intelligent Dasein
    There have been dinosaur fossils discovered above the KT boundary, and at least one fossil has been radiometrically dated to 700,000 years after the event.

    There are certain rhythms or themes that are integral to the structure of organic change and as such recur eternally in all biological and historical phenomena. They are not quantifiable but are familiar enough to be apprehended and codified in an aphoristic way. I like to call them my Iron Laws of History.

    My first Iron Law is that the inevitable always happens, but it always takes longer than expected. This is an important principle to remember when wondering why, for example, the nation has not yet plunged into fiscal calamity despite being $22 trillion in debt. Formulated more specifically, this law might hold that the negative consequences of prior imprudent acts do not manifest immediately. The debt is already a calamity, but it is not yet an acute and phenomenal problem.

    The inverse of the first Iron Law is another Iron Law, which relates how phenomena never fully disappear from the stream of history. It is the more relevant observation under the present circumstances. Pithily state, it might read "Even when it's over, it's not really over."

    For these reasons, catastrophism cannot suffice to explain observed historical events. Neither can gradualism developed along utilitarian or Darwinian lines, nor "punctuated equilibrium," a somewhat ad hoc Hegelian synthesis of the two. The true picture of history is the continuous supercession of the accidental by the essential, which I do liken to the flow of pillow lava underwater, continuously breaking through its own crust and hardening again.

    Randall Carlson has put forward a pretty persuasive argument that a comet impact in North America about 12-13,000 years ago could have played a big role in triggering the last big Ice Age and the massive big mammal die off in North America (with an assist from human hunters).

    Apparently, this is not mainstream. But there is a lot of the same evidence such as Iridium layers and Tektites.

    Joe Rogan has had him on several times. Whether he’s right or not, he’s very interesting.

  131. @anon
    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That's a mighty powerful explosion.

    Yep, and your car is still running off them.

  132. @James Speaks
    You see, the theme that is constantly overlooked is magic real estate. The big, four footed dinosaurs lived in unlucky real estate and the smart, two legged dinosaurs lived in good real estate. That's why when the meteor struck it took out all the unlucky dinosaurs.

    To make things right, we need to research and recreate the DNA of all the extinct dinosaurs, bring them to life, and give them our best lands. Global warming will help rectify matter further.

    Ahhh, you mean Magic Dirt and Tragic Dirt all over again.

    Or, is that, originalism. Can anyone really see the penumbras?

  133. @Bard of Bumperstickers
    Trump, build the asteroid shield!

    Give em’ time, they just got to EMP attacks last week.

  134. @guest
    Am I the only human who doesn't really care how dinosaurs went extinct? I mean, anymore than I care about other extinct species, despite dinosaurs being pretty cool.

    As a Land Before Time fan, I must say Diversity killed them. All those species living together in the Great Valley? No, sir.

    I don’t know: the idea of asteroid impact is kind of scary – plenty of ammo still left in the solar system.

  135. The De Palma family is very versatile. Years ago there was a big conspiracy theory site on physics, things like anti-gravity and time travel, written by a guy named Bruce De Palma, also a relative of the filmmaker.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    The De Palma family is very versatile. Years ago there was a big conspiracy theory site on physics, things like anti-gravity and time travel, written by a guy named Bruce De Palma, also a relative of the filmmaker.
     
    Bruce DePalma =

    Bermuda place.
    Cleared a bump.
    , @ben tillman
    IMDB says Brian De Palma studied physics himself before going in another direction.
    , @Anonymous
    Yes, I knew him and corresponded with him years ago when building tube amplifiers:

    https://depalma.pairsite.com/Analog/analog.html

    1) Introduction



    This author's experience with analog audio circuit design extends over a period of 50 years -- the era of the vacuum tube, long playing records, FM radio, tape recording, and transistors. It also includes the digital era where computers became involved with audio. Since the subject of this paper is analog audio, digital audio signal processing is not discussed.

    2) Historical Background



    In his youth, the author was fortunate in growing up and being educated in a geographical region, east coast U.S.A., Philadelphia, New York, Boston, M.I.T. - Harvard; during a time extending from the 1940's to the late 70's. In 1954, I met David Hafler and Irving Fried, who lived near my family home in Philadelphia. Through their association and friendship I met a number of the east coast audio figures of the time. At that time David Hafler and Herb Keros were manufacturing ACROSOUND transformers for the Williamson amplifier. Later on, Hafler went on to form Dyna Company, manufacturing audio output transformers, amplifier and pre-amplifier kits, Dynakits.

    As Chief Engineer in the early vacuum tube days with Dynaco, I met and spoke with other audio designers, i.e. Stuart Hegeman, Ben Drisko, Frank McIntosh, and Henry Kloss. Out of these meetings a philosophy of design was emerging which encompassed the whole audio reproduction process. As time went on I became acquainted with Emory Cook, Rudy Bozak, Paul Weathers, Edgar Vilchur, Arthur Janszen, and Donald Chave (LOWTHER, U.K.).

    Although my primary interest developed in the basic physical sciences, my interest in music and sound reproduction has persisted to this day. Over a period of decades, experience and introspection have resulted in the evolution of certain precepts which comprise the Method of DePalma in analog audio circuit design. The philosophy and working out of these ideas are exemplified in the three power amplifier designs presented here.
     
  136. @Olorin
    Now try quizzing them on the contents of the original Science article (June 1980).

    What we're witnessing with this reactionary contrarianism is parallel to what we see in "news" media and "social" "science": rhetorical strategies posing or regarded as factual or scientific argumentation...on the grounds of having/finding an outlet/audience. And hopefully therefore advertising revenue/clicks! (The parallel in the Ed Biz is enrollment figures...or number of campuses consulted-for; more in a moment on that.)

    It's related to what we see in the fury at/rejection of "human biodiversity." Which itself is a palatable layer wrapped around the red pill of nature refusing to conform to redistributionist political fantasies.

    As for Alvarez pere, never forget that there were people deeply angry at him for decades for testifying before the AEC that J. Robert Oppenheimer was a security risk.

    The "crisis in news media" (their exposure to fat-part-of-the-bell-curvians as propagandists, useful idiots, spies/leakers, and Service Animals to the powerful) parallels the "crisis in the social sciences" (where among other things the "crisis of replicability" signals how much work in these fields is propaganda/useful idiocy/the barking of Service Animals).

    Pursuit of the truth takes back seat to getting headlines, clicks, and jobs. And this is as true in the Ed Biz as in any other sector now.

    For what it's worth, the Alvarez hypothesis, which appeared a year prior to my finding myself in the company of robust evolutionary biologists, was the issue that first opened my eyes to the institutional communications aspect of academic discourse. It was astonishing to see utter bullshit become a supposedly serious topic of discussion merely because somebody had an old college friend who couldn't get a job in their field, so became a journo "expert" on it. Or because somebody had a conference slot to fill and thought it would be exciting to host a rhubarb. Or because some new and mediocre faculty hire realized they could get noticed not on the quality of their science, but the decibels of their contrarianism...and popularity with some students.

    Stop me before I digress into the parallel trainwrecks of tightly held globo infotainment companies taking over both news reporting and academic publishing.

    It's not just the social sciences that are in truth-crisis. Professorships in the sciences have long been at a premium. There are way more Ph.D.s minted than can ever be employed. Though the McEdBiz boom of the '70s mopped up some of the surplus for a few decades.

    Thus the vaudevillian skills of securing attention and applause through novelty acts have come a long way since the '80s, vastly accelerated by the automation of communication of the past ten years. So it's no surprise I guess that reactionary contrarianism as a strategy has accelerated as well. I mean, it's not like they study the trivium in the Departments of Demographic Pandering For Debt Profit.

    https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2017/01/13/upcoming-trends-2017-colleges-should-prepare-essay

    https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/call-action-marketing-and-communications-higher-education/communicating-value-university

    https://petersonrudgersgroup.com/about-us/

    Great comment sir: Thank You.

  137. @PhysicistDave
    anonymous[479] wrote:

    BTW, Luis Alvarez was a genius too.
     
    I first met Luis around 1973 when I was an undergrad at Caltech and he was visitng campus: he was a pleasant, approachable, really nice guy.

    A few years later, I was at Stanford and the rumor mill said that Luis was coming across the Bay from Berkeley to give a really important talk at SLAC. All of us grad students showed up.

    It was one of his first presentations of the evidence he and his son had accumulated that showed an asteroid had killed the dinosaurs.

    We all left the lecture hall with our heads spinning: My God, we are among the first human beings who know, right now, what killed the dinosaurs!

    The best, clearest, and most stunning scientific talk I have ever heard.

    MIT’s Radiation Lab, the Manhattan Project, Nobel for his bubble chamber work, then he shifts gears to a totally different discipline, making a seminal discovery that soon becomes the working hypothesis.

    There’s a high-octane intellect. All we have now are Bill Nye and Neil deGrasse Tyson.

  138. @Desiderius
    This also seems importantish:

    https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/1111364561033027585

    Excellent. This means there will be more development of the thorium process. Nuclear is the answer to any large-scale question about clean generation of electricity.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    About damn time that Bill got hand over Melinda. I mean she was hot, what, 25 years ago? but c'mon.

    Definitely surging way ahead of Bezos lately.
  139. @Trevor H.

    My first Iron Law
     
    The Internet Blowhard is strong in this one!

    Yes indeed. About a year ago some newcomer responded to one of his long prognostications by saying something like, “My God, man. Who do you think is going to read all that shyte?”

  140. @guest
    Am I the only human who doesn't really care how dinosaurs went extinct? I mean, anymore than I care about other extinct species, despite dinosaurs being pretty cool.

    As a Land Before Time fan, I must say Diversity killed them. All those species living together in the Great Valley? No, sir.
  141. @Dave Bowman
    I have the impression you don't take this site quite as seriously as you used to.

    I don’t take anything as seriously as I used to.

    Loved you in 2001 BTW. I used to know the guy who played you.

  142. @Song For the Deaf
    According to the New Yorker, the consensus is the Deccan Trap killed off around 75% of animal life hundreds of thousands of years before the meteor, the meteor just took it up to 99.9%. De Palma’s find doesn’t change that, nor does he claim that it does.

    The reason the Hell Creek find is such a big deal is it’s the only place where they have fossils at the time of impact, while most other fossils are far above or below the KT Boundary.

    Hot damn, I feel like an expert on this stuff and all it took was reading a single article.

    This is the New Yorker article, right?
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/08/the-day-the-dinosaurs-died

    Where do you see this?

    According to the New Yorker, the consensus is the Deccan Trap killed off around 75% of animal life hundreds of thousands of years before the meteor, the meteor just took it up to 99.9%.

    The only mention of the Deccan Trap I see in that article is this:

    In 2010, forty-one researchers in many scientific disciplines announced, in a landmark Science article, that the issue should be considered settled: a huge asteroid impact caused the extinction. But opposition to the idea remains passionate. The main competing hypothesis is that the colossal “Deccan” volcanic eruptions, in what would become India, spewed enough sulfur and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to cause a climatic shift. The eruptions, which began before the KT impact and continued after it, were among the biggest in Earth’s history, lasting hundreds of thousands of years, and burying half a million square miles of the Earth’s surface a mile deep in lava. The three-­metre gap below the KT layer, proponents argued, was evidence that the mass extinction was well under way by the time of the asteroid strike.

  143. @duncsbaby
    Probably even more OT: The Great White Defendant is not extinct in NYC.

    https://nypost.com/2019/03/31/kristaps-porzingis-reportedly-called-black-woman-my-slave-as-he-beat-raped-her/

    Former Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis allegedly called a black woman a “slave” and a “b—h” as he beat and raped her, according to a report.

    The 7-foot-3 athlete, who is white, is accused of referring to the woman as “my b—h” and “my slave,” adding that he owned her, during the alleged Feb. 7, 2018, sex assault in Porzingis’s Manhattan penthouse, according to TMZ.

    The woman made the claim to cops, the Web site said.

    Law-enforcement sources told The Post — which broke the story Saturday that the NYPD is investigating the rape allegation against the hoops star — that they could not immediately confirm that he used the vile language.
     

    Speaking of OT but iSteve-y news, there’s been a wave of likely hate hoaxing in Portland for fun and profit:

    https://nypost.com/2019/03/30/inside-the-suspicious-rise-of-gay-hate-crimes-in-portland/

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Speaking of OT but iSteve-y news, there’s been a wave of likely hate hoaxing in Portland for fun and profit:
     
    It's called "cosplay" there.
    , @J.Ross
    Has any widely publicized gaybashing turned out to be real (or consistent with original reports)? If the main thing you knew about a target was that you did not want anything to do with their blood, why would you punch him? There was a gay priest activist celebrated for embracing self-defense and teaching it to fellow gay victims; read further and the people he was defending himself against were little clutches of street kids, who had been attacking him "for no reason."
  144. @Candide III
    > On what basis do you say “K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous.”?
    As I wrote above, I'm following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.
    > How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum?
    I don't know. See Intelligent Dasein's comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.
    > One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    The modern definition of "extinction" matches your (2), but I don't see the value of making such extreme arguments. Yes'kov (apparently he uses the spelling 'Eskov', my bad) quite reasonably (in my opinion) says that fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring. It does appeal to journalists and the general sensationally-minded public, and it may well be the case that the asteroid impact helped to finish it off quickly rather than lingering on in diminishing numbers for several millions of years more, or even survive in some African river caves like the coelacanth did in the Indian ocean. The important thing is that the group would have become ecologically marginal and nugatory, and this means that the important changes were those that had undermined the group's position in the first place. I'm sure Steve's readers can come up with any number of topical political analogies.

    As I wrote above, I’m following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.

    Can you give a reference (in English) that outlines their views? Which general systems principles do you see as being relevant here?

    See Intelligent Dasein’s comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.

    If there is only one case, I think a dating error is likely. My understanding is radiometric dating has an accuracy within about 1%. At 66 MYA that is suspiciously close to the o.7 million year figure. Given the lack of fossils in the period below the K-Pg boundary I think a reasonable test would be to look at the distribution of dates found near the K-Pg boundary. If that looks like a normal curve (which means there would be dates “after” the boundary) that seems like a decent argument for a relatively hard boundary.

    fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring.

    This seems like the key point. Which was why I asked about how far the population was down from its peak. A more relevant metric would be how the dinosaur population varied over the entire Mesozoic era IMHO.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    Can you give a reference (in English) that outlines their views? Which general systems principles do you see as being relevant here?
     
    I do not have the references handy but I can recall to you the main drift of the thinking.

    When we ask about the origins of the coal seams and the petroleum-bearing source rocks, geologists tell us that they are the remains of many ages of algal deposition along the bottom of "shallow inland seas." It was these seas that supported the major dinosaur taxa and, ringed by the great fern forests and conifers, the distinctive anthropoid life of the Mesozoic. Shallow inland seas once comprised a significant part of the geography of every continent, but there are no analogues to such features to be found on the Earth today.

    Circa 100mya and coincident with the rise to dominance of the angiosperms, the shallow inland seas began to disappear. Nobody knows why exactly this occurred, but the entire geophysical and biological aspect of the Earth began to alter radically at that time, and the age of the dinosaurs went into secular decline.

    But decline does not mean collapse. Species and even entire ecosystems that have already lived out their organic possibilities may continue to persist upon the surface of the Earth for tens and even hundreds of millions of years (by the common reckoning), as the case of the ferns tells us. There of course still ferns living dumbly among us, even though they have long since been superseded by the fully developed kingdoms of the conifers and the flowering plants. This is neither Darwinism nor catastrophism, but a new regime that appears like a new baby in a family and begins to grow up between and among and over the older forms.

    As for what caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, it is a moot point. The dinosaurs are not extinct. While many of the more connotated lineages died out, their bird and reptile descendants are happily among the living. Although it is for some reason impolite to say so, it is very hard to see how a celestial impact of sufficient violence to completely kill every last dinosaur would yet somehow leave these other creatures alive. The only logically supported conclusion is that the impact, if one even occurred, was not a decisive event, but if anything only removed an upper crust of forms long in senility and irrelevance.
  145. @Another physicist
    Walter Alvarez gave a Berkeley Physics Department colloquium in the early 80’s on his theory and the evidence. I was an undergrad at the time, and the intensity of the opposition by the paleontologist and geologists who showed up made quite an impression on me. They *really* didn’t like the idea of a sudden catastrophic event.

    the intensity of the opposition by the paleontologist and geologists who showed up made quite an impression on me. They *really* didn’t like the idea of a sudden catastrophic event.

    Can you (or Dave) give an idea of how much of their opposition was presented in a reasoned way and how much was pointing and sputtering (or equivalent)?

    • Replies: @gcochran
    Pretty much all foolishness.
    , @Another physicist
    They argued that the fossil record showed the extinction took place over 100's of thousands or millions of years. There were substantive arguments back and forth between Alvarez and the nay-sayers.
  146. @Senator Brundlefly
    You think this is about dinosaurs? Ha! What its really about is an evil white man colonialist ignoring native perspectives on the land. How dare the New Yorker not include indigenous perspectives on the K-Pg event! Cause, as we all know, when I wanna know what happened 66 million year ago, its best to ask a stone age culture with untainted by evil Western Science.

    https://twitter.com/cricketcrocker/status/1111724951269187587

    https://twitter.com/indyfromspace/status/1111974615738396672

    By embracing anarchist geographies as kaleidoscopic spatialities that allow for non-hierarchical connections between autonomous entities, Springer configures a new political imagination.

    I would be most surprised if Prof Springer is happy about “non-hierarchical connections between autonomous entities” should they involve unregistered firearms. Much “anarchism” is hot air.

    LinkedIn does show a Simon Springer in Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire, who is “Director of Guns R Us”. I doubt this is the same one as the author, who is placed at the Universities of Newcastle (Australia) and British Columbia.

  147. @The Last Real Calvinist
    Speaking of OT but iSteve-y news, there's been a wave of likely hate hoaxing in Portland for fun and profit:

    https://nypost.com/2019/03/30/inside-the-suspicious-rise-of-gay-hate-crimes-in-portland/

    Speaking of OT but iSteve-y news, there’s been a wave of likely hate hoaxing in Portland for fun and profit:

    It’s called “cosplay” there.

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    Speaking of hate hoaxing, I was just wondering about Jussie Smollett; his release and failure on the part of the State Attorney to press charges.

    What would happen if your neighbor, for one reason or another, were to call the police and tell them that he had good reason to believe that you were a dangerous drug and weapons dealer? And that right now suspicious people were at your house and that they were in the back yard shooting heroin and flashing what appeared to be automatic weapons. That you feared for your defenseless children. Could they please intervene?

    How were Smollett's false accusations any different than these? How could this not have been a crime? How can the State Attorney argue that the reputation and welfare of the people targeted would not have suffered?

  148. @donut
    Even with the parachute attached to the bomb I'm a little surprised that the aircrew got far enough away to be safe .

    I believe it was dropped from a tower

    • Replies: @Lurker
    I read it was dropped from a specially adapted Tu-95 bomber, the Tu-95v.

    This alleged to be a shot of the bomb being released:

    https://www.tu-95.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Tu-95AndTsarBomba-e1340064240178.jpg
  149. @Mr. Anon

    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That’s a mighty powerful explosion.
     
    Something like 13 billion megatons.

    For comparison, the world’s entire nuclear arsenal currently measures around 1,500 megatons (incidentally, down more than tenfold from the 1960s-80s).

    Still basically just a fizzle relative to the power of big asteroids.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    There is no context in which that fact can be incidental.
  150. @Rodolfo
    The De Palma family is very versatile. Years ago there was a big conspiracy theory site on physics, things like anti-gravity and time travel, written by a guy named Bruce De Palma, also a relative of the filmmaker.

    The De Palma family is very versatile. Years ago there was a big conspiracy theory site on physics, things like anti-gravity and time travel, written by a guy named Bruce De Palma, also a relative of the filmmaker.

    Bruce DePalma =

    Bermuda place.
    Cleared a bump.

  151. @Candide III
    > On what basis do you say “K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous.”?
    As I wrote above, I'm following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.
    > How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum?
    I don't know. See Intelligent Dasein's comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.
    > One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    The modern definition of "extinction" matches your (2), but I don't see the value of making such extreme arguments. Yes'kov (apparently he uses the spelling 'Eskov', my bad) quite reasonably (in my opinion) says that fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring. It does appeal to journalists and the general sensationally-minded public, and it may well be the case that the asteroid impact helped to finish it off quickly rather than lingering on in diminishing numbers for several millions of years more, or even survive in some African river caves like the coelacanth did in the Indian ocean. The important thing is that the group would have become ecologically marginal and nugatory, and this means that the important changes were those that had undermined the group's position in the first place. I'm sure Steve's readers can come up with any number of topical political analogies.

    How do you become an ex- physicist? Excommunication?

  152. It wasn’t a comet that killed the dinosaurs. It was an earthquake. Every fifteen thousand years, there is a huge earthquake. During this earthquake, the land moves sideways as much as five thousand miles. That’s why the Grand Canyon has been underwater at least three times.

    This earthquake causes huge volcanoes to form. These volcanoes spew hot magma and ash into the stratosphere, where it comes back down as super-cooled air, which kills everything that it touches.

    There are some interesting features at the bottom of the ocean, that most people have never seen.

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    This too.

    Our train had derailed. All the passengers had deboarded and were milling about in confusion. No one knew what had happened. Fortunately, it appeared as though no one were hurt. The damage was confined to the the cars of the train, which had jumped the track.

    Some officials arrived. They put their heads together in consultation. We passengers were not included. Eventually, they announced that they had determined the cause of the derailment. Some foreigners, Hungarians likely, had failed to latch the doors of the cars properly. Unable to read or comprehend the instructions printed on the doors, which were in English, the foreigners hadn't followed proper procedure and the doors had not been dogged down tight.

    Most people accepted this explanation. "Aha, that's it." Foreigners who didn't comprehend English. "The doors weren't sealed."

    This seemed a bit far fetched to me. I couldn't figure out how the one related to the other. How did an improperly latched door lead to a derailment?

    Some others, over there, were looking up at the sky. A small group were standing apart, their heads tilted backwards, gazing intently at the stars. I left the train-wreck crowd and joined the stargazers off to the side. Something was very wrong. The stars weren't where they belonged. None of the familiar constellations were in their appointed place. What was going on here? Something large had occurred.

    It struck me that some major event had been responsible not only for the derailment but also for a shift in our Earth-bound perception such that our view of the Heavens was askew, tilted. That the crust of the Earth itself had shifted. How else to explain the unfamiliarity of the Heavens?

    Officialdom always places the blame for events on small causes; causes which it believes it can control. Many people are content with this level of explanation. There are some, however, who are not. They stand apart and see the big picture. They see the cause of events in things greater than ourselves. Because these causes are not easily manipulated and don't hold the promise of easy solution, the perspective held by people who ascribe actions to those large causes is not popular.

    And that's why I find myself here, amongst people who saw, sooner than I, that the changes happening around me were due to causes much larger than the banal ones put forth by the authorities. My own dissatisfaction with and rejection of the pat explanation led me to look about and to notice the people here, heads craned towards the sky, and to wonder what it was they were looking up at.

    , @Buffalo Joe
    Ron, Not smart enough to self answer this question, but do large earth quakes change the tilt of the planet's axis? And wouldn't even a miniscule change affect things like climate?
  153. @Reg Cæsar

    Speaking of OT but iSteve-y news, there’s been a wave of likely hate hoaxing in Portland for fun and profit:
     
    It's called "cosplay" there.

    Speaking of hate hoaxing, I was just wondering about Jussie Smollett; his release and failure on the part of the State Attorney to press charges.

    What would happen if your neighbor, for one reason or another, were to call the police and tell them that he had good reason to believe that you were a dangerous drug and weapons dealer? And that right now suspicious people were at your house and that they were in the back yard shooting heroin and flashing what appeared to be automatic weapons. That you feared for your defenseless children. Could they please intervene?

    How were Smollett’s false accusations any different than these? How could this not have been a crime? How can the State Attorney argue that the reputation and welfare of the people targeted would not have suffered?

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    Racism. Duh.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Three, Depending on the neighborhood, all of what you write could be true. But in some neighborhoods no one would call the police.
  154. @onetwothree
    Just...in case you are unaware...that is probably the most famous "Far Side" strip.

    Apparently Gary Larson submitted it during a crunch and didn't think much of it.

    Midvale School for the Gifted, probably

    • Replies: @JMcG
    Bummer of a birthmark, Hal.
  155. @James Braxton
    Why haven't interest rates spiked in response to the debt? The markets seem to accept it all as pretty normal.

    The sixty four thousand dollar question.

    Because the currency exchange rate mechanism is broken. In the standard model, the U.S. as a nation that runs persistent trade deficits, should be forced to adjust the value of its currency relative to its trading partners. That and pay a high rate of interest on its Treasury bonds. China, of course, doesn’t want to lose the U.S. as an export market so they link their currency to ours.

    Since oil is denominated in dollars and since the use of oil is expanding even into third world countries, demand for dollars is persistent. As long as our military can impose our will on the world, we can run deficits. When the music stops then it’s everyone scrambling for a chair. And the big guns start popping.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    And that's why Trump's run into a brick wall implementing the agenda upon which he ran. The empire's the only thing holding the nation together.
    , @BB753
    The moment the US can no longer afford its military, the dollar will be kaputt. Something along the lines of the fall of The USSR. But with the Chinese scavenging the remains of the US economy.
    , @RadicalCenter
    But is Russia-China oil and gas trade still denominated in US Dollars? I thought that they were denominating a lot of such trade in yuan and rubles in the past few years.

    Isn't India also taking steps to settle some of its energy purchases from Russia and Iran in rubles and rupees instead of US Dollars?

    China has increased its oil and gas purchases from Russia, and India has been increasing its oil imports from Iran despite the US government's threats of sanctions etc. So the de-dollarization of the aforementioned trade pairings should, in time, have a noticeable effect on the value of the US dollar and its continuing viability as "the" world reserve currency.

    Would be great to see a breakdown of China and India's energy imports from Russia and Iran: what percentage are in US Dollars and what percentage are in other currencies, and how fast is the ratio changing?
    , @Anonymous
    Why just $64,000?
  156. Obviously an incredibly cool find. The dinosaur version of Pompeii. Maybe a potential tourist attraction? North Dakota doesn’t have much right now…

    Regarding it’s scientific importance, obviously any find this rich is scientifically important. However–I don’t think there is much dispute that there was a large impact event around the Yucatan peninsula contemporaneous with the extinction of dinosaurs. This adds important evidence of the existence and severity of that event, but I don’t think many doubted that the impact event actually happened and was catastrophic.

    What does seem to be in dispute is the exact nature of the relationship between the impact and the extinction of the dinosaurs. That is, dinosaurs appear to have been losing ground to mammals prior to the event in the late cretaceous, and it is possible that their extinction was inevitable. So, if the event had never happened, would dinosaurs have eventually disappeared anyway? Or would there still be T. Rexes roaming around Nebraska? Or did the impact simply accelerate a transition to a new equilibrium that was already under way? I think that is what is currently controversial.

    My personal view is that latter: the mammals had the tools they needed to displace the dinos and it was just a matter of time. Placentas are like a million bazillion times better than eggs. For example any island dominated by birds will be decimated by the introduction of a breeding pair of rats but I’ve never seen birds displace mammals in any niche. This just hurried the process along by pushing the reset button on the biosphere.

    (Another way of looking at this is that the dinosaurs never went extinct. Modern dinosaurs are called birds; birds are directly evolved from dinos. That particular branch on the tree of life got badly pruned around the end of the late cretaceous but it is still extant.)

    Having said that if the impact dramatically and permanently changed, for example, the composition of the atmosphere, mean surface temperatures or other things that shift the balance between mammals vs. birds vs. reptiles vs. amphibians then it is possible the impact was the causative event and not just an accelerant. To give an example bird lungs are way, way, way more efficient at pulling oxygen out of the air than mammal lungs which are basically crap so decreases in o2 concentration in the atmosphere tend to favor birds. (really really high levels of o2 favor really large insects who have even worse gas exchange properties than mammals.)

    • Replies: @Difference Maker
    You no doubt know that birds also have superior vision, a relic not only of flight but also of their time in the sun. This combined with their oxygen extraction capabilities inherited presumably from their dino ancestors made the dinosaurs remarkable creatures; unsurprising that they thrived long over the earth.

    Birds and reptiles do not use much water to excrete either. The end of the Permian immediately preceding the dinosaurs saw an anoxic and dry environment, and this played to their strengths.

    The evolution of flight, with which birds have flourished all over the world, now precludes them from retaking the ground, what with the lack of foreclaws. For the better perhaps; it saves them from most mammalian predation and we rule the world

  157. Anonymous[320] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That's a mighty powerful explosion.

    Within an hour those particular animals were dead. Read the stories. Talks about inland standing waves in Norway from Japanese earthquake. There was a particular event at that sandbank. Not all of ND.

  158. @Achmed E. Newman
    Very interesting stuff and timely, as I just got done telling my boy that this bit is just a theory, as he'd just learned something about the end for the dinosaurs in school. You know how boys love those dinosaurs! I'll have to give him an update.

    With all this talk about calamity, it's time for The Calmity Song by The Decemberists, a band for which I've not heard any other song that I like! I think it's because their guitarist got help from REM's Peter Buck on this one:

    "All that remains is the arms of the angels ...."*

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcGSEbfegrs

    * No, the lyrics don't make any sense. That's another REM thing.

    Achmed, I like their song “This is why we fight.” My impression is that it’s an anthem of defiance against the anti-human forces corroding our civilization. It has that distinctive White rock sound: cold and clear, like the north wind.

    (Admittedly, I know nothing about the Decembrists’ “politics,” so I make no claim for their intentions; these are just my thoughts as a listener.)

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    (Admittedly, I know nothing about the Decembrists’ “politics,”

    Anti-Romanov?

  159. @anon
    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That's a mighty powerful explosion.

    Steve left out the best part: Robert DePalma is Brian DePalma’s cousin (director of “Dressed to Kill”, “Carrie”, “Scarface” and “Blow Out” among others.)

    (Steve has cited the “Scarface” Miami phenomenon from the early ’80’s in a number of posts refuting the stupid argument that everyone in Miami economically flourished thanks to floods of immigrants around 1980. So this connection fits.)

    My favorite quote: “Rudy Pascucci, left, and the paleontologist Robert DePalma, right, at DePalma’s dig site. Of his discovery, DePalma said, “It’s like finding the Holy Grail clutched in the bony fingers of Jimmy Hoffa, sitting on top of the Lost Ark.”

    Or, as his cousin Brian might have put it: “Every day above ground is a good day.” – Tony Montana

    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Steve left out the best part: Robert DePalma is Brian DePalma’s cousin (director of “Dressed to Kill”, “Carrie”, “Scarface” and “Blow Out” among others.)
     
    Steve didn't leave that out.
  160. @Altai
    OT:
    On trans day of visibility lots of young women with BPD claiming to be men are showing themselves with short haircuts but the other ones you see are guys like this. Over 50, software engineer...

    https://twitter.com/nowimcarol/status/1112081419851849728

    The Sailer-type transgender.

    Just be on the lookout for young girls with buckets of water, Carol!

  161. @Altai
    OT:
    On trans day of visibility lots of young women with BPD claiming to be men are showing themselves with short haircuts but the other ones you see are guys like this. Over 50, software engineer...

    https://twitter.com/nowimcarol/status/1112081419851849728

    The Sailer-type transgender.

    Altai, in a few weeks Carol will announced that Joe Biden sniffed her hair and planted a slow kiss to the back of her head, but who could blame Joe?

  162. @ChrisZ
    Achmed, I like their song “This is why we fight.” My impression is that it’s an anthem of defiance against the anti-human forces corroding our civilization. It has that distinctive White rock sound: cold and clear, like the north wind.

    (Admittedly, I know nothing about the Decembrists’ “politics,” so I make no claim for their intentions; these are just my thoughts as a listener.)

    (Admittedly, I know nothing about the Decembrists’ “politics,”

    Anti-Romanov?

    • LOL: ChrisZ
  163. @ThreeCranes
    The sixty four thousand dollar question.

    Because the currency exchange rate mechanism is broken. In the standard model, the U.S. as a nation that runs persistent trade deficits, should be forced to adjust the value of its currency relative to its trading partners. That and pay a high rate of interest on its Treasury bonds. China, of course, doesn't want to lose the U.S. as an export market so they link their currency to ours.

    Since oil is denominated in dollars and since the use of oil is expanding even into third world countries, demand for dollars is persistent. As long as our military can impose our will on the world, we can run deficits. When the music stops then it's everyone scrambling for a chair. And the big guns start popping.

    And that’s why Trump’s run into a brick wall implementing the agenda upon which he ran. The empire’s the only thing holding the nation together.

  164. @ThreeCranes
    Speaking of hate hoaxing, I was just wondering about Jussie Smollett; his release and failure on the part of the State Attorney to press charges.

    What would happen if your neighbor, for one reason or another, were to call the police and tell them that he had good reason to believe that you were a dangerous drug and weapons dealer? And that right now suspicious people were at your house and that they were in the back yard shooting heroin and flashing what appeared to be automatic weapons. That you feared for your defenseless children. Could they please intervene?

    How were Smollett's false accusations any different than these? How could this not have been a crime? How can the State Attorney argue that the reputation and welfare of the people targeted would not have suffered?

    Racism. Duh.

  165. @Rodolfo
    The De Palma family is very versatile. Years ago there was a big conspiracy theory site on physics, things like anti-gravity and time travel, written by a guy named Bruce De Palma, also a relative of the filmmaker.

    IMDB says Brian De Palma studied physics himself before going in another direction.

  166. @Buzz Mohawk
    Excellent. This means there will be more development of the thorium process. Nuclear is the answer to any large-scale question about clean generation of electricity.

    About damn time that Bill got hand over Melinda. I mean she was hot, what, 25 years ago? but c’mon.

    Definitely surging way ahead of Bezos lately.

  167. @Paul Jolliffe
    Steve left out the best part: Robert DePalma is Brian DePalma's cousin (director of "Dressed to Kill", "Carrie", "Scarface" and "Blow Out" among others.)

    (Steve has cited the "Scarface" Miami phenomenon from the early '80's in a number of posts refuting the stupid argument that everyone in Miami economically flourished thanks to floods of immigrants around 1980. So this connection fits.)

    My favorite quote: "Rudy Pascucci, left, and the paleontologist Robert DePalma, right, at DePalma’s dig site. Of his discovery, DePalma said, “It’s like finding the Holy Grail clutched in the bony fingers of Jimmy Hoffa, sitting on top of the Lost Ark.”

    Or, as his cousin Brian might have put it: “Every day above ground is a good day.” – Tony Montana

    Steve left out the best part: Robert DePalma is Brian DePalma’s cousin (director of “Dressed to Kill”, “Carrie”, “Scarface” and “Blow Out” among others.)

    Steve didn’t leave that out.

  168. @RickinJax
    I believe it was dropped from a tower

    I read it was dropped from a specially adapted Tu-95 bomber, the Tu-95v.

    This alleged to be a shot of the bomb being released:

    • Replies: @Lurker
    Not clear on that still, but thats a parachute deploying from the tail of the bomb, retarding it's descent long enough for the bomber (and the plane taking the picture) to get to a safe distance.
  169. @Ron B Liebermann
    It wasn't a comet that killed the dinosaurs. It was an earthquake. Every fifteen thousand years, there is a huge earthquake. During this earthquake, the land moves sideways as much as five thousand miles. That's why the Grand Canyon has been underwater at least three times.

    This earthquake causes huge volcanoes to form. These volcanoes spew hot magma and ash into the stratosphere, where it comes back down as super-cooled air, which kills everything that it touches.

    There are some interesting features at the bottom of the ocean, that most people have never seen.

    This too.

    Our train had derailed. All the passengers had deboarded and were milling about in confusion. No one knew what had happened. Fortunately, it appeared as though no one were hurt. The damage was confined to the the cars of the train, which had jumped the track.

    Some officials arrived. They put their heads together in consultation. We passengers were not included. Eventually, they announced that they had determined the cause of the derailment. Some foreigners, Hungarians likely, had failed to latch the doors of the cars properly. Unable to read or comprehend the instructions printed on the doors, which were in English, the foreigners hadn’t followed proper procedure and the doors had not been dogged down tight.

    Most people accepted this explanation. “Aha, that’s it.” Foreigners who didn’t comprehend English. “The doors weren’t sealed.”

    This seemed a bit far fetched to me. I couldn’t figure out how the one related to the other. How did an improperly latched door lead to a derailment?

    Some others, over there, were looking up at the sky. A small group were standing apart, their heads tilted backwards, gazing intently at the stars. I left the train-wreck crowd and joined the stargazers off to the side. Something was very wrong. The stars weren’t where they belonged. None of the familiar constellations were in their appointed place. What was going on here? Something large had occurred.

    It struck me that some major event had been responsible not only for the derailment but also for a shift in our Earth-bound perception such that our view of the Heavens was askew, tilted. That the crust of the Earth itself had shifted. How else to explain the unfamiliarity of the Heavens?

    Officialdom always places the blame for events on small causes; causes which it believes it can control. Many people are content with this level of explanation. There are some, however, who are not. They stand apart and see the big picture. They see the cause of events in things greater than ourselves. Because these causes are not easily manipulated and don’t hold the promise of easy solution, the perspective held by people who ascribe actions to those large causes is not popular.

    And that’s why I find myself here, amongst people who saw, sooner than I, that the changes happening around me were due to causes much larger than the banal ones put forth by the authorities. My own dissatisfaction with and rejection of the pat explanation led me to look about and to notice the people here, heads craned towards the sky, and to wonder what it was they were looking up at.

  170. @Achmed E. Newman
    #1) Far Side
    #2) Calvin and Hobbs

    Ach, #3 Bloom County.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    My father was a huge Pogo fan way back when. I grew up reading his Pogo book collections.

    At my father’s funeral, my brother read a poem by Walt Kelly

    , @cthulhu
    Everybody seems to have forgotten about Al Capp’s Lil’ Abner, which was the archetype for the satirical, socially-aware comic strip. Pogo was about ten years later.

    I was too young for both of them, but I remember my dad reading the Sunday Pogo to me when I was just a tyke. Good times.
    , @Desiderius
    3: Harv Kurtzman
  171. @Altai
    OT:
    On trans day of visibility lots of young women with BPD claiming to be men are showing themselves with short haircuts but the other ones you see are guys like this. Over 50, software engineer...

    https://twitter.com/nowimcarol/status/1112081419851849728

    The Sailer-type transgender.

    Unfortunately for it, it will never be female. Not ever. Not even if it cuts its dangly bits off.

  172. @duncsbaby
    Probably even more OT: The Great White Defendant is not extinct in NYC.

    https://nypost.com/2019/03/31/kristaps-porzingis-reportedly-called-black-woman-my-slave-as-he-beat-raped-her/

    Former Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis allegedly called a black woman a “slave” and a “b—h” as he beat and raped her, according to a report.

    The 7-foot-3 athlete, who is white, is accused of referring to the woman as “my b—h” and “my slave,” adding that he owned her, during the alleged Feb. 7, 2018, sex assault in Porzingis’s Manhattan penthouse, according to TMZ.

    The woman made the claim to cops, the Web site said.

    Law-enforcement sources told The Post — which broke the story Saturday that the NYPD is investigating the rape allegation against the hoops star — that they could not immediately confirm that he used the vile language.
     

    dunc, “…vile language?” He was probably singing a rap tune to her.

  173. @Ron B Liebermann
    It wasn't a comet that killed the dinosaurs. It was an earthquake. Every fifteen thousand years, there is a huge earthquake. During this earthquake, the land moves sideways as much as five thousand miles. That's why the Grand Canyon has been underwater at least three times.

    This earthquake causes huge volcanoes to form. These volcanoes spew hot magma and ash into the stratosphere, where it comes back down as super-cooled air, which kills everything that it touches.

    There are some interesting features at the bottom of the ocean, that most people have never seen.

    Ron, Not smart enough to self answer this question, but do large earth quakes change the tilt of the planet’s axis? And wouldn’t even a miniscule change affect things like climate?

  174. @Anatoly Karlin
    For comparison, the world's entire nuclear arsenal currently measures around 1,500 megatons (incidentally, down more than tenfold from the 1960s-80s).

    Still basically just a fizzle relative to the power of big asteroids.

    There is no context in which that fact can be incidental.

  175. @ThreeCranes
    Speaking of hate hoaxing, I was just wondering about Jussie Smollett; his release and failure on the part of the State Attorney to press charges.

    What would happen if your neighbor, for one reason or another, were to call the police and tell them that he had good reason to believe that you were a dangerous drug and weapons dealer? And that right now suspicious people were at your house and that they were in the back yard shooting heroin and flashing what appeared to be automatic weapons. That you feared for your defenseless children. Could they please intervene?

    How were Smollett's false accusations any different than these? How could this not have been a crime? How can the State Attorney argue that the reputation and welfare of the people targeted would not have suffered?

    Three, Depending on the neighborhood, all of what you write could be true. But in some neighborhoods no one would call the police.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    But in some neighborhoods no one would call the police.
     
    No, they call Abdi. The other Abdi.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmD7tyFWHH8
  176. @Buzz Mohawk
    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter. I will leave it at that, with the caveat that I am not qualified to have an opinion of any importance.

    I am fascinated by the alternative and the direction it would, if true, necessarily lead some of our fundamental science. I am just shooting the shit around the campfire with (I hope) friends. Thanks for saying I do well. (I get discouraged.)

    Please tell us what the mystery theory is. Expanding earth? Electric universe?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    "Growing Earth" would be a more accurate term, because new mass is required. "Electric Universe" is only related in the sense that a source of energy would be needed to produce matter within celestial bodies like the Earth.

    As far as I know, any physicist in his right mind will tell you that there is neither enough energy around a planet to be converted into significant matter, nor a way for that to happen.

    However, there is evidence of growth, not only on Earth, but on some of the other planets and moons in the solar system.

    Yes, my crackpot musings involve celestial bodies that grow from energy existing in space itself. I find it interesting to think about how space has been an empty nothing ever since Michelson and Morley, and to compare this to a universe in which we propagate through "space" that is in fact "something" more than just a mathematical construct.

    But I don't know anything, and I am crazy.

    https://fthmb.tqn.com/WZvhhHk73-OD7OsXB85iDN4DVdw=/768x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/2008_age_of_oceans_noplates-58b5a1943df78cdcd87e6818.jpg

    Now, before all the knowledgeable people here pile on me, I will just concede ahead of time.

    Re: Dinosaur extinction, I only meant to say that some of them were too damn big to live on dry land in 1 G, present day gravity, and better men than I say the same thing.
  177. @Buffalo Joe
    Ach, #3 Bloom County.

    My father was a huge Pogo fan way back when. I grew up reading his Pogo book collections.

    At my father’s funeral, my brother read a poem by Walt Kelly

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
    For those, interested, all the Pogo strips are being republished in book form.
    , @Reg Cæsar
    We have met the enemy, and he is us.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Paleo, I didn't fully appreciate "Pogo" until I started college. Biting sarcasm and good art.What's not to like?
  178. @Skyler_the_Weird
    What was the strength of the Tunguska event in 1910? It was supposedly the largest impact event in history.

    It wasn’t. It was around 40 megatons. The largest human nuclear device ever was the Tsar Bomba, at around 50 megatons – 57 according to the physicists at Los Alamos. The Soviets might have underestimated it’s power.

    It is debatable if Tunguska was caused by an asteroid impact. There is significant evidence that it was caused by a massive underground layer of stored methane gas igniting.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    It wasn’t. It was around 40 megatons.
     
    No. 10 Megatons, tops.
  179. @Mr. Anon

    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That’s a mighty powerful explosion.
     
    Something like 13 billion megatons.

    Wrong. It was 100 million megatons, or 100 teratons.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Wrong. It was 100 million megatons, or 100 teratons.
     
    I think you are wrong. What is your source? It sounds low. Mine, was this:

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1403.6391

    Which translates to about 2 billion megatons (geometric mean of the range) and about 14 billion megatons at the high end. That high end squares with an estimate I once made that it was about 10,000 times the yield of the World's combined nuclear arsenals.
  180. @Mr. Anon

    The comet struck in Yucatan, and within an hour everything in North Dakota was dead. That’s a mighty powerful explosion.
     
    Something like 13 billion megatons.

    Wrong. It was 100 million megatons, or 100 teratons.

  181. @Jack D
    That the Joos done it.

    You’ll be happy to know the old-line WASPs were in on it too.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    http://www.californiarealestatetop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/1538556049_346_InsectMammal-Paul-Paiement-and-Abel-Alejandre-at-Coagula-Curatorial.jpg
  182. @donut
    Even with the parachute attached to the bomb I'm a little surprised that the aircrew got far enough away to be safe .

    They were actually concerned with that. They painted the aircraft with a special reflective paint to further decrease the thermal damage to the aircraft.

    Here is another interesting fact: the original design of the bomb was 100 megatons, but they had to scale it down by half because there was simply no way that the aircraft carrying the pilots could get away in time.

    The Soviet Russians invented a special three-stage nuclear device that allowed the explosive power to be pushed above the limit for thermonuclear bombs, which at that time capped at ~20 megatons. The practical application of such bomb was limited, though, because it was too heavy to be propelled by conventional ICBMs.

  183. @jb
    If you are looking for nightmare fuel, let's talk about Comet Swift-Tuttle (the comet responsible for the anual Perseid meteor shower). It's 16 miles across (compared to the estimated 6 miles for the Chicxulub asteroid), and its orbit comes shockingly close to that of the the Earth -- 86,000 miles. That means that in its present orbit it can't hit the Earth, but it could pass between the Earth and the Moon, or even hit the Moon! According to this article there are currently only four sizable objects that can come this close to the earth: three asteroids less than 400 meters across; and Swift-Tuttle.

    For now we are safe -- astronomers can project Swift-Tuttle's orbit hundreds of years into the future and there are no close passes. But here's the thing: comets do not have stable orbits. We can project their orbits for hundreds of years, but not millions, or even thousands. Swift-Tuttle could acquire an entirely different orbit that poses no danger to the Earth, or it could even be thrown out of the solar system or into the sun. Or it could hit the earth, and if did it would totally dwarf the Chicxulub event. One could imagine it wiping out not just humans and other mammals, but all vertebrate life.

    I said "humans" because, while the odds are low, this is something that could technically happen within the next few thousand years, and it's entirely possible that humans, civilized or otherwise, could be around to see it. And while the odds are low, they aren't as low as you might think. If you have a Powerball ticket in your wallet, the odds that you have won the jackpot are considerably worse. Frankly I'm kind of amazed that we don't hear more about this, but given that there is probably nothing we could do to stop a 16 mile wide comet maybe it's for the best.

    Comets are not as dense as asteroids, though. Width is not the salient point, kinetic energy is.

    • Replies: @jb
    Velocity matters more than mass for kinetic energy, and Swift-Tuttle would be moving considerably faster than the Chicxulub asteroid when it hit. According to Wikipedia "an Earth impact would have an estimated energy of ~27 times that of the Cretaceous–Paleogene impactor." I don't think it was an overstatement to say the Chicxulub impact would be "dwarfed" by a Swift-Tuttle impact -- it really is a Sword of Damocles hanging over the entire ecosystem, and will be for a very long time.

    Maybe some day we'll have the technology to dismantle the comet or move it into a safer orbit, but it's hard to see that happening. It would be a difficult and expensive project with no short-term payoff. It's hard enough to get people concerned about potential threats even 100 years into the future, let alone 100,000!
  184. @Buzz Mohawk
    Actually, that's not it.

    BTW I buy the DePalma connection between Chicxulub and his dead fish full of stone BBs, but I don't buy the event as the reason dinosaurs went extinct.

    Others here point out that scientific revolutions are preceded by ridicule and disbelief. There may be a big one coming along, and dinosaur extinction may be tangential evidence for it. If Science survives long enough, future generations will know.

    Aliens melting the mantle of the earth?

  185. Yes. Scientists find a few rocks (fossils), and a 66 million-year-old mystery has been conclusively solved. The lack of humility in the scientific establishment is breathtaking.

  186. @Steve Sailer
    Tektites are like beads of molten rock, like obsidian, that get flung up into space and then fall out of the sky at 100 to 200 mph terminal velocity. I'm not sure if they would kill a stegosaurus, but getting shot by God's own beebee gun couldn't have been fun.

    Steve Sailer, falling debris from the meteor’s impact had only an extremely small role in the extinction of dinosaurs. About 20% of it was due to the direct thermal and kinetic energy from the impact, and 80% of it was due to the cloud of dust lifted from the impact and the ash cloud from the the volcanic eruptions that followed, which covered the entire planet, curtailed photosynthesis and killing 99% of all life on Earth.

  187. @adreadline

    There are observations and data that do not fit existing models but do fit an alternative, but the alternative could only be conceivable if there is a fundamentally new discovery in physics relating to energy and the production of matter.
     
    Doesn't work. So that alternative model to the K-T extinction is possible, provided a discovery happens in physics, and I suspect you have no evidence it actually could happen and be consistent with the data available today.

    Look, we could find out we all live in a quantum computer simulation, or that our ''universe'' is the product of a Boltzmann brain spontaneously created 10^(10^50) years after the true Universe came to be. That would open up a lot of possibilities for bong hitters, but sadly, disappointingly, frustratingly for them, there's no evidence for any of that, so whatever model you come up with that would blast the Alvarez hypothesis out of the water needs to follow the laws of our Universe as we understand them now.

    I knew I’d walk into a dissertation committee if I went down this path.

    You make a good point, of which I was already well aware. In fact, you have caused me to reexamine the K-T angle of my “thesis.” You see, the extinction is, as I said, only peripheral to what I am (not) talking about. It is neither the main subject, nor necessary.

    Furthermore, I mistakenly focused only on the large creatures that went extinct, when in fact it was the majority of species of all kinds that disappeared.

    Nevertheless, there is no proof that the meteorite impact was the only factor in that great change. It may have been the primary cause, or it may have been one of the straws that broke the dinosaurs’ backs.

    In any case, I concede to you in the matter of the extinction event.

  188. Meanwhile, Black Savannah Needs Space:

    Only black reporters allowed in Georgia mayoral race event

    SAVANNAH, Ga. (AP) — Organizers of a meeting to discuss an upcoming mayoral race in Georgia barred reporters from attending — unless they were African-American.

    Signs at the door said “Black Press Only!”

    https://www.apnews.com/83bd1028c8f74cfc8aa22d61c7f0b8b4

  189. @Paleo Liberal
    My father was a huge Pogo fan way back when. I grew up reading his Pogo book collections.

    At my father’s funeral, my brother read a poem by Walt Kelly

    For those, interested, all the Pogo strips are being republished in book form.

    • Replies: @The Anti-Gnostic
    Can you provide a link? Thanks!
  190. @res

    As I wrote above, I’m following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.
     
    Can you give a reference (in English) that outlines their views? Which general systems principles do you see as being relevant here?

    See Intelligent Dasein’s comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.
     
    If there is only one case, I think a dating error is likely. My understanding is radiometric dating has an accuracy within about 1%. At 66 MYA that is suspiciously close to the o.7 million year figure. Given the lack of fossils in the period below the K-Pg boundary I think a reasonable test would be to look at the distribution of dates found near the K-Pg boundary. If that looks like a normal curve (which means there would be dates "after" the boundary) that seems like a decent argument for a relatively hard boundary.

    fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring.
     
    This seems like the key point. Which was why I asked about how far the population was down from its peak. A more relevant metric would be how the dinosaur population varied over the entire Mesozoic era IMHO.

    Can you give a reference (in English) that outlines their views? Which general systems principles do you see as being relevant here?

    I do not have the references handy but I can recall to you the main drift of the thinking.

    When we ask about the origins of the coal seams and the petroleum-bearing source rocks, geologists tell us that they are the remains of many ages of algal deposition along the bottom of “shallow inland seas.” It was these seas that supported the major dinosaur taxa and, ringed by the great fern forests and conifers, the distinctive anthropoid life of the Mesozoic. Shallow inland seas once comprised a significant part of the geography of every continent, but there are no analogues to such features to be found on the Earth today.

    Circa 100mya and coincident with the rise to dominance of the angiosperms, the shallow inland seas began to disappear. Nobody knows why exactly this occurred, but the entire geophysical and biological aspect of the Earth began to alter radically at that time, and the age of the dinosaurs went into secular decline.

    But decline does not mean collapse. Species and even entire ecosystems that have already lived out their organic possibilities may continue to persist upon the surface of the Earth for tens and even hundreds of millions of years (by the common reckoning), as the case of the ferns tells us. There of course still ferns living dumbly among us, even though they have long since been superseded by the fully developed kingdoms of the conifers and the flowering plants. This is neither Darwinism nor catastrophism, but a new regime that appears like a new baby in a family and begins to grow up between and among and over the older forms.

    As for what caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, it is a moot point. The dinosaurs are not extinct. While many of the more connotated lineages died out, their bird and reptile descendants are happily among the living. Although it is for some reason impolite to say so, it is very hard to see how a celestial impact of sufficient violence to completely kill every last dinosaur would yet somehow leave these other creatures alive. The only logically supported conclusion is that the impact, if one even occurred, was not a decisive event, but if anything only removed an upper crust of forms long in senility and irrelevance.

    • Replies: @res
    Thanks for elaborating, but that felt an awfully lot like moving the goalposts.

    Dinosaurs becoming extinct while other animals survived is an interesting point. Do you know of any extended analysis of that? My initial reaction is size is an important issue. This Quora answer seems like a good take on that idea: https://qr.ae/TW1HSz

    Of course that immediately raises the question of did any "small dinosaurs" survive. I don't know enough about dinosaur/bird/reptile taxonomy and history to give a good answer to that, but would guess the answer was yes. Presumably those "small dinosaurs" were then outcompeted into extinction and/or evolved into something else (birds).

    Surely there is a good exploration of this somewhere?

    Though we can quibble about whether the impact itself was responsible for the extinctions or if the second order effects (e.g. vulcanism, dust clouds, etc.) did so over a longer period, I think it is hard to argue the impact was not the major contributing cause (both direct and indirect) to the timing of the extinctions.
  191. Greet most new proclamations with skepticism firstly, and excitement secondly.

  192. @Mitchell Porter
    Please tell us what the mystery theory is. Expanding earth? Electric universe?

    Growing Earth” would be a more accurate term, because new mass is required. “Electric Universe” is only related in the sense that a source of energy would be needed to produce matter within celestial bodies like the Earth.

    As far as I know, any physicist in his right mind will tell you that there is neither enough energy around a planet to be converted into significant matter, nor a way for that to happen.

    However, there is evidence of growth, not only on Earth, but on some of the other planets and moons in the solar system.

    Yes, my crackpot musings involve celestial bodies that grow from energy existing in space itself. I find it interesting to think about how space has been an empty nothing ever since Michelson and Morley, and to compare this to a universe in which we propagate through “space” that is in fact “something” more than just a mathematical construct.

    But I don’t know anything, and I am crazy.

    Now, before all the knowledgeable people here pile on me, I will just concede ahead of time.

    Re: Dinosaur extinction, I only meant to say that some of them were too damn big to live on dry land in 1 G, present day gravity, and better men than I say the same thing.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan

    Re: Dinosaur extinction, I only meant to say that some of them were too damn big to live on dry land in 1 G, present day gravity, and better men than I say the same thing.
     
    If you haven't read it already, you'll probably like this 1928 essay titled "On Being the Right Size", by the talented British scientist J.B.S. Haldane.

    https://irl.cs.ucla.edu/papers/right-size.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._B._S._Haldane

  193. Buzz,

    It is not unthinkable that a planet or moon could expand (or contract) due to more mundane thermal processes (e.g. thermal expansion and/or especially phase shifts in the deep strata), so the idea of an expanding Earth is not necessarily risible.

    In fact, I’ll join you in exile. I happen to be partial to a theory of mine that the Earth originated as a Neptune-like body and is now an Chthonian Planet, and that the hydrodynamic flow of light gases mixed with vaporized mantle material is what explains the origin and orbit of the Moon. The residue of that primordial atmosphere is the Earth’s oceans.

  194. @JMcG
    You are indeed among friends here Buzz. I get a lot more out of this comments section than it gets out of me and you are a big part of it old buddy.

    Thanks.

  195. @Bill Jones
    God needs a new BB gun.
    According to a reliable source (some random dude on the internets) a really good BB gun gets a muzzle velocity of 900 FPS , the equivalent of 600+ mph, which would as my grandmother warned "Put your eye out" . We can only assume that the absence of blind dinosaurs in the report is proof that early arms manufacturers were no more reliable than Lockheed is today.

    (I used Imperial Measurements because the Metric system hadn't bee invented back then but I'm sure the Queen was around.)

    God needs a new BB gun.

    He’ll put His Eye out!

  196. @SimpleSong
    Obviously an incredibly cool find. The dinosaur version of Pompeii. Maybe a potential tourist attraction? North Dakota doesn't have much right now...

    Regarding it's scientific importance, obviously any find this rich is scientifically important. However--I don't think there is much dispute that there was a large impact event around the Yucatan peninsula contemporaneous with the extinction of dinosaurs. This adds important evidence of the existence and severity of that event, but I don't think many doubted that the impact event actually happened and was catastrophic.

    What does seem to be in dispute is the exact nature of the relationship between the impact and the extinction of the dinosaurs. That is, dinosaurs appear to have been losing ground to mammals prior to the event in the late cretaceous, and it is possible that their extinction was inevitable. So, if the event had never happened, would dinosaurs have eventually disappeared anyway? Or would there still be T. Rexes roaming around Nebraska? Or did the impact simply accelerate a transition to a new equilibrium that was already under way? I think that is what is currently controversial.

    My personal view is that latter: the mammals had the tools they needed to displace the dinos and it was just a matter of time. Placentas are like a million bazillion times better than eggs. For example any island dominated by birds will be decimated by the introduction of a breeding pair of rats but I've never seen birds displace mammals in any niche. This just hurried the process along by pushing the reset button on the biosphere.

    (Another way of looking at this is that the dinosaurs never went extinct. Modern dinosaurs are called birds; birds are directly evolved from dinos. That particular branch on the tree of life got badly pruned around the end of the late cretaceous but it is still extant.)

    Having said that if the impact dramatically and permanently changed, for example, the composition of the atmosphere, mean surface temperatures or other things that shift the balance between mammals vs. birds vs. reptiles vs. amphibians then it is possible the impact was the causative event and not just an accelerant. To give an example bird lungs are way, way, way more efficient at pulling oxygen out of the air than mammal lungs which are basically crap so decreases in o2 concentration in the atmosphere tend to favor birds. (really really high levels of o2 favor really large insects who have even worse gas exchange properties than mammals.)

    You no doubt know that birds also have superior vision, a relic not only of flight but also of their time in the sun. This combined with their oxygen extraction capabilities inherited presumably from their dino ancestors made the dinosaurs remarkable creatures; unsurprising that they thrived long over the earth.

    Birds and reptiles do not use much water to excrete either. The end of the Permian immediately preceding the dinosaurs saw an anoxic and dry environment, and this played to their strengths.

    The evolution of flight, with which birds have flourished all over the world, now precludes them from retaking the ground, what with the lack of foreclaws. For the better perhaps; it saves them from most mammalian predation and we rule the world

  197. @Paleo Liberal
    My father was a huge Pogo fan way back when. I grew up reading his Pogo book collections.

    At my father’s funeral, my brother read a poem by Walt Kelly

    We have met the enemy, and he is us.

  198. @Anon
    OK, Buzz is being too coy about it, so I'll say it:

    Dinosaurs may have farted themselves to extinction, according to a new study from British scientists.
     
    There, I said it.

    This is from Fox News, by the way, so it's been vetted.

    Dinosaurs 'gassed' themselves into extinction, British scientists say

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/dinosaurs-gassed-themselves-into-extinction-british-scientists-say


    Giant plant-eating sauropods were fingered as the key culprits in the study, which appears in the latest edition of the journal Current Biology. An average argentinosaurus, weighing around 90 tons and measuring 140 feet, chomped its way through half a ton of ferns a day, producing clouds of methane as the food broke down in its gut.

    "A simple mathematical model suggests that the microbes living in sauropod dinosaurs may have produced enough methane to have an important effect on the Mesozoic climate," Wilkinson said. "In fact, our calculations suggest these dinosaurs may have produced more methane than all the modern sources, natural and human, put together."
     

    “An average argentinosaurus, weighing around 90 tons and measuring 140 feet…”

    Kinda brings me to my point about Earth’s gravity — and the just slightly, remotely-conceivable, crackpot idea that it just might, perhaps, not have been as strong then.

    Ergo, the planet just possibly, maybe, wasn’t as big then.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    Have you factored Chuck Norris into your calculations?
    , @MikeatMikedotMike
    Bone density has a relationship with gravity. For example - astronauts that spend extended periods of time in zero gravity have a measurable decrease in bone density.

    So I guess my questions is: Is there a way to (accurately) measure bone density in larger dinosaur fossils and compare to current large terrestrial animals' (elephants, for example) bone density? If so, would this provide any proof or disproof of the expansion theory?
  199. @Buffalo Joe
    Three, Depending on the neighborhood, all of what you write could be true. But in some neighborhoods no one would call the police.

    But in some neighborhoods no one would call the police.

    No, they call Abdi. The other Abdi.

  200. @Buzz Mohawk
    You'll be happy to know the old-line WASPs were in on it too.

    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/cc/f6/f7/ccf6f76a8e2d4cb5e4865dbd2ea30d97.jpg

  201. @Buzz Mohawk
    "Growing Earth" would be a more accurate term, because new mass is required. "Electric Universe" is only related in the sense that a source of energy would be needed to produce matter within celestial bodies like the Earth.

    As far as I know, any physicist in his right mind will tell you that there is neither enough energy around a planet to be converted into significant matter, nor a way for that to happen.

    However, there is evidence of growth, not only on Earth, but on some of the other planets and moons in the solar system.

    Yes, my crackpot musings involve celestial bodies that grow from energy existing in space itself. I find it interesting to think about how space has been an empty nothing ever since Michelson and Morley, and to compare this to a universe in which we propagate through "space" that is in fact "something" more than just a mathematical construct.

    But I don't know anything, and I am crazy.

    https://fthmb.tqn.com/WZvhhHk73-OD7OsXB85iDN4DVdw=/768x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/2008_age_of_oceans_noplates-58b5a1943df78cdcd87e6818.jpg

    Now, before all the knowledgeable people here pile on me, I will just concede ahead of time.

    Re: Dinosaur extinction, I only meant to say that some of them were too damn big to live on dry land in 1 G, present day gravity, and better men than I say the same thing.

    Re: Dinosaur extinction, I only meant to say that some of them were too damn big to live on dry land in 1 G, present day gravity, and better men than I say the same thing.

    If you haven’t read it already, you’ll probably like this 1928 essay titled “On Being the Right Size”, by the talented British scientist J.B.S. Haldane.

    https://irl.cs.ucla.edu/papers/right-size.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._B._S._Haldane

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Excellent. Thank you. I've been exposed to ideas like his on this subject, and I may have read him but can't remember. He gets it that there are basic, physical rules that any living organism must follow, and, um, "size matters."

    I'm just simple-minded enough to look at the sheer size of some of the dinosaurs, and to listen to men like Haldane and some engineers and biologists of today, and to agree that there is no way the big ones could have lived in 1 G.

    There are plenty of other example of gigantism from that era too. Some of the large, winged creatures could not fly in present day gravity and atmosphere, so you need either an air of syrup, or a smaller planet, or both.

    I think noticing things and thinking about their implications should be allowed for laymen.
  202. @Nick Diaz
    Wrong. It was 100 million megatons, or 100 teratons.

    Wrong. It was 100 million megatons, or 100 teratons.

    I think you are wrong. What is your source? It sounds low. Mine, was this:

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1403.6391

    Which translates to about 2 billion megatons (geometric mean of the range) and about 14 billion megatons at the high end. That high end squares with an estimate I once made that it was about 10,000 times the yield of the World’s combined nuclear arsenals.

    • Replies: @Nick Diaz
    The most accurate estimate of the meteor's diameter is 10.6 kilometers. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_boundary It was a chondrite meteor, and most of the mass of chondrite meteors is composed of silicon and silicates, with various small amounts of other elements like Iridium and Vanadium. Based on the diameter of the meteor and the density of elemental Silicon and silicates, the meteor should have a mass of around 2 trillion tons.

    The meteor entered Earth's atmosphere on a 30 degree angle, based on the shape and distortion of the crater it left on impact. A mass of 2 trillion tons entering the Earth's atomosphere on a 3o degree angle would impact with a velocity around 50,000 mp/h. A mass of 2 trillion tons moving at a velocity of 50,000 mp/h has about 100 teratons of TNT in kinetic energy.

    National Geographic agrees with the figure of 100 trillion tons of TNT, or 100 teratons: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjeu5Pmsq7hAhWaErkGHdk3Bn8QFjAMegQIARAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.nationalgeographic.com%2F2016%2F06%2Fwhat-happened-day-dinosaurs-died-chicxulub-drilling-asteroid-science%2F&usg=AOvVaw1HMLFmKejoXDgvQM_Ug8Uh
  203. @Buzz Mohawk

    "An average argentinosaurus, weighing around 90 tons and measuring 140 feet..."
     
    Kinda brings me to my point about Earth's gravity -- and the just slightly, remotely-conceivable, crackpot idea that it just might, perhaps, not have been as strong then.

    Ergo, the planet just possibly, maybe, wasn't as big then.

    Have you factored Chuck Norris into your calculations?

    • LOL: James Speaks
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    All I know is that CN > g.
  204. @Desiderius
    This also seems importantish:

    https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/1111364561033027585

    Except for pouring money down the rathole of education reform, Gates is generally putting his chips on the right issues.

  205. Chesapeake Bay is a 50 mile wide impact crater from about 35 million years ago.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Without erosion and lots of water, the Earth would look as pockmarked as the Moon. There have been hundreds, perhaps thousands, of major impacts, and more will happen.

    Maybe impacts have been responsible for many extinction events...

    https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/courses-images/wp-content/uploads/sites/1223/2017/02/14205105/Figure_47_01_04.jpg

    ...or maybe they are just coincidental, confounding variables that just happen to be around at the same time. Like climate changes, extinction cycles seem to have always happened. Some scientists think we are heading into another one. It is foolish to assume anything will remain the same or ever has.

    Maybe AOC and the rest can start scaring voters with the upcoming extinction event.
  206. @Unladen Swallow
    100-300 million megatons is the correct figure if memory serves, it may have been 13 billion times the Hiroshima bomb. I think 100 million megatons is 7 billion Hiroshimas.

    See my comment below

  207. @Nick Diaz
    It wasn't. It was around 40 megatons. The largest human nuclear device ever was the Tsar Bomba, at around 50 megatons - 57 according to the physicists at Los Alamos. The Soviets might have underestimated it's power.

    It is debatable if Tunguska was caused by an asteroid impact. There is significant evidence that it was caused by a massive underground layer of stored methane gas igniting.

    It wasn’t. It was around 40 megatons.

    No. 10 Megatons, tops.

  208. @PiltdownMan

    Re: Dinosaur extinction, I only meant to say that some of them were too damn big to live on dry land in 1 G, present day gravity, and better men than I say the same thing.
     
    If you haven't read it already, you'll probably like this 1928 essay titled "On Being the Right Size", by the talented British scientist J.B.S. Haldane.

    https://irl.cs.ucla.edu/papers/right-size.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._B._S._Haldane

    Excellent. Thank you. I’ve been exposed to ideas like his on this subject, and I may have read him but can’t remember. He gets it that there are basic, physical rules that any living organism must follow, and, um, “size matters.”

    I’m just simple-minded enough to look at the sheer size of some of the dinosaurs, and to listen to men like Haldane and some engineers and biologists of today, and to agree that there is no way the big ones could have lived in 1 G.

    There are plenty of other example of gigantism from that era too. Some of the large, winged creatures could not fly in present day gravity and atmosphere, so you need either an air of syrup, or a smaller planet, or both.

    I think noticing things and thinking about their implications should be allowed for laymen.

    • Replies: @gcochran
    Assuming that dinosaur bone was the same strength as other reptilian bone - no problem.
    , @Jack D
    This is like the folks who say that it's impossible for a bumblebee to fly - and yet there they are flying around. If your calculations say that it's impossible for dinosaurs to walk around in 1G gravity and yet we have dinosaur fossils and little evidence that gravity or the size of the earth has changed, Occam's Butterknife tells us that the more likely explanation is that your calculations are wrong. It's very easy to make some wrong assumption about the strength or density of dinosaur bone or something.
  209. @Lurker
    I read it was dropped from a specially adapted Tu-95 bomber, the Tu-95v.

    This alleged to be a shot of the bomb being released:

    https://www.tu-95.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Tu-95AndTsarBomba-e1340064240178.jpg

    Not clear on that still, but thats a parachute deploying from the tail of the bomb, retarding it’s descent long enough for the bomber (and the plane taking the picture) to get to a safe distance.

  210. @PiltdownMan
    Chesapeake Bay is a 50 mile wide impact crater from about 35 million years ago.

    Without erosion and lots of water, the Earth would look as pockmarked as the Moon. There have been hundreds, perhaps thousands, of major impacts, and more will happen.

    Maybe impacts have been responsible for many extinction events…

    …or maybe they are just coincidental, confounding variables that just happen to be around at the same time. Like climate changes, extinction cycles seem to have always happened. Some scientists think we are heading into another one. It is foolish to assume anything will remain the same or ever has.

    Maybe AOC and the rest can start scaring voters with the upcoming extinction event.

  211. @Desiderius
    Have you factored Chuck Norris into your calculations?

    All I know is that CN > g.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    When symbolically expressing CN comparisons, the preferred nomenclature is >>.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    All I know is that CN > g.
     
    Canadian National is bigger than Google? They should tidy up their tracks around here. CP as well.


    https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2016/10/4/saupload_Track-network-overview.png

  212. Anonymous[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon
    Nobody has ever put forth Daccan Traps as the cause of dinosaur extinction. It's always been seen as an additional, small contributing factor to the meteor.

    Since the main Deccan Traps researcher was female, a few years ago her theory was exaggerated and misrepresented in the web media in furtherance of a sort of Rosalind Franklin or Hidden Figures narrative about women in science being crushed by the patriarchy.

    Once someone got in contact with her and the true story didn't fit the narrative it was dropped, but it will never completely die, as Steve's, perhaps facetious, reference to it demonstrates.

    Nobody

    Gerta Keller.

  213. @Candide III
    > On what basis do you say “K-Pg extinction was fast but not simultaneous.”?
    As I wrote above, I'm following the Russian paleontological/evolutionary-biologist school centering on Dr. Markov. I trust them on paleontology, and as an (ex-)physicist I make a judgment on the general systems principles involved.
    > How long do you think the last dinosaur survived after the meteor impact? An event dragging out years (or decades/centuries even) is nothing on a millions of years timescale. How do you think the dinosaur population at the moment of impact compared to the maximum?
    I don't know. See Intelligent Dasein's comment #5 above, he quotes somebody that dinosaur fossils have been found 0,7 million years past K-Pg.
    > One can make either of two extreme arguments:
    The modern definition of "extinction" matches your (2), but I don't see the value of making such extreme arguments. Yes'kov (apparently he uses the spelling 'Eskov', my bad) quite reasonably (in my opinion) says that fixating on the last few species of a group that had been in bad shape and steadily losing ground for many millions of years prior to K-Pg is a red herring. It does appeal to journalists and the general sensationally-minded public, and it may well be the case that the asteroid impact helped to finish it off quickly rather than lingering on in diminishing numbers for several millions of years more, or even survive in some African river caves like the coelacanth did in the Indian ocean. The important thing is that the group would have become ecologically marginal and nugatory, and this means that the important changes were those that had undermined the group's position in the first place. I'm sure Steve's readers can come up with any number of topical political analogies.

    There’s no evidence that dinosaurs were in decline before the impact.

    As for later fossil dinosaurs, you have to worry about erosion and redeposition.

  214. @res

    the intensity of the opposition by the paleontologist and geologists who showed up made quite an impression on me. They *really* didn’t like the idea of a sudden catastrophic event.
     
    Can you (or Dave) give an idea of how much of their opposition was presented in a reasoned way and how much was pointing and sputtering (or equivalent)?

    Pretty much all foolishness.

  215. @Buzz Mohawk
    Excellent. Thank you. I've been exposed to ideas like his on this subject, and I may have read him but can't remember. He gets it that there are basic, physical rules that any living organism must follow, and, um, "size matters."

    I'm just simple-minded enough to look at the sheer size of some of the dinosaurs, and to listen to men like Haldane and some engineers and biologists of today, and to agree that there is no way the big ones could have lived in 1 G.

    There are plenty of other example of gigantism from that era too. Some of the large, winged creatures could not fly in present day gravity and atmosphere, so you need either an air of syrup, or a smaller planet, or both.

    I think noticing things and thinking about their implications should be allowed for laymen.

    Assuming that dinosaur bone was the same strength as other reptilian bone – no problem.

  216. This sounds quite iSteve! To the men on the look-out: Attention please! – The Intellectual Dark Web is approaching fast!
    By the way: Niall Ferguson gave a very clear (and detailed) interview to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung‘s René Scheu in March (it is still online for free), in which he said, that the left is so incredibly strong (especially in academic circles) because it was left off the hook morally in regard to Mao, Polt Pot, Lenin, Stalin, etc. …

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
    Yes, but left off the hook by whom?

    Earlier Leftists.

    They have ruled the roost since at least 1945.
  217. @Peter Lund
    We are talking about Hegel? The genius who thought Goethe had figured out colours and Newton hadn't? The genius who thought Newton didn't understand Kepler's laws?

    If interested, you might want to have a look at: Olaf L: Müller, “Mehr Licht”. Goethe mit Newton im Streit um die Farben”, S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt/M, 2015
    Thing is: There is a group (!) of some dozen physicists worldwide checking the Newton-Goethe controversy. One astonishing detail: All (!) of Goethe’s colour experiments replicate. And Goethe’s colour theory is as consistent for those experts, as is Newtons.

    But with regard to Hegel – Philosophers need not be right about everything – not at all.

    In this context: Ernst Bloch once remarked, that many mistakes were more productive than lots of correct insights.

  218. @Buffalo Joe
    Ach, #3 Bloom County.

    Everybody seems to have forgotten about Al Capp’s Lil’ Abner, which was the archetype for the satirical, socially-aware comic strip. Pogo was about ten years later.

    I was too young for both of them, but I remember my dad reading the Sunday Pogo to me when I was just a tyke. Good times.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    ct, I read "lil Abner" when I was a teen. Al could draw a fantasy worthy woman Daisy Mae. "Pogo" was a classic.
  219. @ThreeCranes
    The sixty four thousand dollar question.

    Because the currency exchange rate mechanism is broken. In the standard model, the U.S. as a nation that runs persistent trade deficits, should be forced to adjust the value of its currency relative to its trading partners. That and pay a high rate of interest on its Treasury bonds. China, of course, doesn't want to lose the U.S. as an export market so they link their currency to ours.

    Since oil is denominated in dollars and since the use of oil is expanding even into third world countries, demand for dollars is persistent. As long as our military can impose our will on the world, we can run deficits. When the music stops then it's everyone scrambling for a chair. And the big guns start popping.

    The moment the US can no longer afford its military, the dollar will be kaputt. Something along the lines of the fall of The USSR. But with the Chinese scavenging the remains of the US economy.

  220. Anon[312] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    UCLA is experiencing an anti-blackness epidemic. Or a hate hoax problem. You be the judge.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/14tUonDK5GEsXyU-8_tzM-8qqXNrgV_ge962k-P6xDjc/

    The timeline, based on the recent Afrikan Student Union press release:

    — 1969: Two Black Panther members are shot and killed by a member of another black nationalist group in Campbell Hall. In an show of anti-blackness, UCLA has failed to honor the black-on-black murder victims by continuing to refuse to rename the building after them.

    — 2006: UCLA black enrollment falls precipitously … after Proposition 209 eliminates affirmative action based on race.

    — 2013: Eight years later UC admissions have figured out how to game Proposition 209, and black enrollment is up, but in a show of blatent anti-blackness UCLA only graduates 55 percent of black students within four years, and gives them the lowest GPA of any race graduated.

    — 2015: An off-campus frat gives a Kanye Western theme party, with female students sporting fake butt implants and ’49ers carrying pans filled with “gold” to express gold digging, and gold miner “dirt” makeup on body that might be doubling as black face if you look really hard.

    — 2018: “A Black Student was racially profiled, wrongfully approached, and questioned with hand on gun by UCPD.” Neither Google search nor the Daily Bruin search knows anything about this incident.

    — 2018/19: “Black students in graduate housing have been followed, terrorized, and told that ‘they don’t belong’ in University Apartment South housing.” Ditto on Google search and Daily Bruin search, and amazingly, no mobile phone video or audio of any of these incidents has surfaced.

    The WE-DEMANDs?: A $40 million endowed Black Resource Center, plus various structural harrassment of whites in the form of reeducation and investigative committees manned by blacks.

    I had to laugh at this pathetic list of anti-black incidents: A half a century ago some blacks get into a fight and shoot each other on campus. Then blacks have trouble getting admitted, getting good grades, and graduating from UCLA because, based on their standardized test scores, they are, on average, substantially less capable than students of other races (and they seem to spend a lot more time on extracurricular activism than struggling students ought to: Hit the books!). The frat thing is a classic Twitter uproar that can hardly have affected black UCLA students in their studies.

    The last two incidents are mysteries, since I could not find any news articles. For the 2018 questioning we’d need to know the officer’s side of the story. But for the graduate housing incidents, even without news reports they have a distinct aroma of Smollett: black students followed, terrorized, and told that “they don’t belong.” Terrorized, but no news report? “Told that they don’t belong” is the sort of thing that blacks seem to obsess over, but whites don’t really think about, like “nooses.” Also, given the Proposition 209 fallout and graduation/GPA issues, there is a high probability of Freudian projection of a sort, of imagining someone is accussing you of something that you yourself are afraid may be true. So the housing incidents sound like urban legends that have grown as they have passed from person to person.

    By the way, the Afrikan Students Union claims that the average non-black graduate leaves with a GPA of 3.5, whereas blacks only graduate with a grade of pi, 3.14. Can it be true that half of UCLA graduates have an A-minus average? That seems considerably inflated from my UCLA days.

    Finally, why the K in Afrikan Students Union?

    Online explanations include claims that Africans used K, but colonialists substituted C (which implies that the Roman alphabet was developed in Wakanda), and that current Roman alphabet transliteration of various African languages uses K for the K sound (certainly true). But this is my favorite explanation:

    Before de arrival of european kkkolonialist, Afrika was originally spelled with a K. De continent gets its name from a Brotha who was emperor of de ancient Zingh Empire over 15,000 years ago. It wasn’t until after de arrival of de Italian general Scipio Africanus who conquered Afrika for de Italians many centuries later, that de hard K was replaced with de letter C. So Our spelling Afrika with a C represents Our conscious desire to once again come together in unity as one Peepoe, one Nation, with one destiny; with one flag: Red, blak, and green!

    So the Roman alphabet spelling with a K goes back 15,000 years. Forget Latin, the oldest Greek inscriptions are less than 3,000 years old.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    It's not 1968 anymore. No one takes this kind of attempt to mau-mau the flak catchers seriously anymore. It's on the level of Black Hebrew Israelites putting on fake costumes and haranguing the passers-by in Time Square or Nigerian scammers who email you claiming that they are some long lost prince - sophisticates laugh at this stuff nowadays.

    The racial con has moved to a MUCH higher level - think Barack Obama, with a sharp crease in his trousers and controlling the trillions from the White House. He's not scheming for a measly $40 million to fund the Black Bruin Resource Center.
    , @J.Ross

    ... gives them the lowest GPA of any race graduated.
    ... gold miner “dirt” makeup on body that might be doubling as black face if you look really hard.

     

    Is this not satire?
  221. @Mr. Anon

    Wrong. It was 100 million megatons, or 100 teratons.
     
    I think you are wrong. What is your source? It sounds low. Mine, was this:

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1403.6391

    Which translates to about 2 billion megatons (geometric mean of the range) and about 14 billion megatons at the high end. That high end squares with an estimate I once made that it was about 10,000 times the yield of the World's combined nuclear arsenals.

    The most accurate estimate of the meteor’s diameter is 10.6 kilometers. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_boundary It was a chondrite meteor, and most of the mass of chondrite meteors is composed of silicon and silicates, with various small amounts of other elements like Iridium and Vanadium. Based on the diameter of the meteor and the density of elemental Silicon and silicates, the meteor should have a mass of around 2 trillion tons.

    The meteor entered Earth’s atmosphere on a 30 degree angle, based on the shape and distortion of the crater it left on impact. A mass of 2 trillion tons entering the Earth’s atomosphere on a 3o degree angle would impact with a velocity around 50,000 mp/h. A mass of 2 trillion tons moving at a velocity of 50,000 mp/h has about 100 teratons of TNT in kinetic energy.

    National Geographic agrees with the figure of 100 trillion tons of TNT, or 100 teratons: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjeu5Pmsq7hAhWaErkGHdk3Bn8QFjAMegQIARAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.nationalgeographic.com%2F2016%2F06%2Fwhat-happened-day-dinosaurs-died-chicxulub-drilling-asteroid-science%2F&usg=AOvVaw1HMLFmKejoXDgvQM_Ug8Uh

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    A mass of 2 trillion tons entering the Earth’s atomosphere on a 3o degree angle would impact with a velocity around 50,000 mp/h.
     
    No, an impactor hits with whatever speed it hits at, independent of its mass, and certainly not entirely dependent on it's angle. Where did you get the information you copy-pasted?

    I got my information from an arXiv article from 2014 by two researchers at The National Autonomous University of Mexico. Tell me, Nick, should I not trust these Mexicans?

    Well, perhaps I shouldn't. Here's an older work, but peer-reviewed, and one that's been cited much more:

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JE01743

    Which places the energy of the impactor in the range of 170 - 810 teratons. So the number I gave, and amended with a second look, was high. And the number you reflexively cite without any citation was low.

  222. @James Braxton
    Midvale School for the Gifted, probably

    Bummer of a birthmark, Hal.

  223. I’d have thought the earlier fossil finds were the most important ever, in that they showed pretty much conclusively that the earth was much older than man, and that whole species had dominated then disappeared. This overturned the pre-Victorian idea of earth as more or less always the same.

    In order to reconcile this with Biblical creation, people like Philip Gosse were driven to assert that at the time of Creation, God had also created all the fossils for humans to find later. Possible (the ways of God are inscrutable) but unlikely on the face of it (“I cannot … believe that God has written on the rocks one enormous and superfluous lie for all mankind“).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omphalos_(book)

    • Replies: @Jack D
    I don't know what that point was, but at some point well prior to the Victorian period, people of a scientific bent must have begun to question whether the Biblical account of earth's creation was literally correct and offered a true timeline.
    , @Trutherator
    Od doesn't lie. He created the dinosaurs. Fossils are found in sedimentary rock. Paleontologists know how fossils are formed in floods.

    The climate apparently did change after the Flood. Entomologists explain that insects have that small maximum size because of the way they oxygenate. But here are foot-long cockroach fossils.
    , @res
    I see your point and agree it has some force, but I think the issue is there was no single find that did that (as far as I know). More a long procession of additive evidence that even now still gets resistance from some quarters.
  224. @Senator Brundlefly
    You think this is about dinosaurs? Ha! What its really about is an evil white man colonialist ignoring native perspectives on the land. How dare the New Yorker not include indigenous perspectives on the K-Pg event! Cause, as we all know, when I wanna know what happened 66 million year ago, its best to ask a stone age culture with untainted by evil Western Science.

    https://twitter.com/cricketcrocker/status/1111724951269187587

    https://twitter.com/indyfromspace/status/1111974615738396672

    Crocker then moans about a paper printing her tweet rather than asking her for a comment.

    “Hey @thewire_in is it your standard practice to just take commentary from Twitter instead of give people the chance to consent to being featured?

    Not an expert, but seems unprofessional to me.”

    I didn’t know there were any indigenous people around 66 million years ago anyway.

    Ms Crocker’s feed is extremely woke. She retweets someone who claims that Jeanine Pirro’s “an example must be made of the traitorous treasonous group that accused Donald Trump” is “absolutely a call for the mass slaughter of political enemies“.

  225. jb says:
    @Kaganovitch
    Comets are not as dense as asteroids, though. Width is not the salient point, kinetic energy is.

    Velocity matters more than mass for kinetic energy, and Swift-Tuttle would be moving considerably faster than the Chicxulub asteroid when it hit. According to Wikipedia “an Earth impact would have an estimated energy of ~27 times that of the Cretaceous–Paleogene impactor.” I don’t think it was an overstatement to say the Chicxulub impact would be “dwarfed” by a Swift-Tuttle impact — it really is a Sword of Damocles hanging over the entire ecosystem, and will be for a very long time.

    Maybe some day we’ll have the technology to dismantle the comet or move it into a safer orbit, but it’s hard to see that happening. It would be a difficult and expensive project with no short-term payoff. It’s hard enough to get people concerned about potential threats even 100 years into the future, let alone 100,000!

  226. @res

    the intensity of the opposition by the paleontologist and geologists who showed up made quite an impression on me. They *really* didn’t like the idea of a sudden catastrophic event.
     
    Can you (or Dave) give an idea of how much of their opposition was presented in a reasoned way and how much was pointing and sputtering (or equivalent)?

    They argued that the fossil record showed the extinction took place over 100’s of thousands or millions of years. There were substantive arguments back and forth between Alvarez and the nay-sayers.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
    • Replies: @gcochran
    I've read a few books by those guys. Not smart people.
  227. @James Braxton
    Why haven't interest rates spiked in response to the debt? The markets seem to accept it all as pretty normal.

    Interest rates are extremely manipulated. The central banks of the world have bought huge amounts of treasury issuance. Even now, there are $11 trillion of government debt trading at negative interest rates. This is not a natural situation and were the central banks ever to unwind their balance sheets—as the Fed made the feeblest effort to do last year, which quickly sent the 10-year back above 3% and the stock market tanking—the whole Ponzi scheme would collapse.

    • Replies: @James Braxton
    Wouldn't bond vigilantes assert themselves at some point?
  228. @Buzz Mohawk
    So we can assume that DePalma has traced the tektites back to Chicxulub. That would establish the connection.

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.

    Chicxulub sounds like a place where girls in bikinis do oil changes.

    Lemme get this straight; so you’re saying:

    Chicxulub = “Chicks you lube”?

    Yeah, I can see how that’s vaguely erotic…:-)

  229. @LondonBob
    Interestingly Niall Ferguson has an article comparing the contented stability of Japan to Britain, and the West's, current malaise in today's Sunday Times.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-japan-must-pity-the-land-of-the-setting-sun-s7tbb5zqb

    His conclusion is immigration is the main difference, mass immigration is not compatible with a stable, conservative country.

    My answer is comment #218

  230. @YetAnotherAnon
    I'd have thought the earlier fossil finds were the most important ever, in that they showed pretty much conclusively that the earth was much older than man, and that whole species had dominated then disappeared. This overturned the pre-Victorian idea of earth as more or less always the same.

    In order to reconcile this with Biblical creation, people like Philip Gosse were driven to assert that at the time of Creation, God had also created all the fossils for humans to find later. Possible (the ways of God are inscrutable) but unlikely on the face of it ("I cannot ... believe that God has written on the rocks one enormous and superfluous lie for all mankind").

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omphalos_(book)

    I don’t know what that point was, but at some point well prior to the Victorian period, people of a scientific bent must have begun to question whether the Biblical account of earth’s creation was literally correct and offered a true timeline.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    I'm not sure they thought much about it - there were a lot more scientific discoveries to be made in that era. Bishop Ussher in the 18th C looked at the Mosaic genealogies and concluded the earth was formed around 4004 BC, but not much later James Hutton, a genius whose dreadful prose style concealed this fact from the world (he anticipated natural selection sixty years before Darwin), produced geological theories implying a much older earth.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ussher_chronology

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_the_Earth

    The British Isles were blessed with such talent during the 17th and 18th centuries. All he had to do was look, and think - how many farmers have dug, and drained, yet not seen what Hutton saw?

    In a 1753 letter he wrote that he had "become very fond of studying the surface of the earth, and was looking with anxious curiosity into every pit or ditch or bed of a river that fell in his way". Clearing and draining his farm provided ample opportunities. The mathematician John Playfair described Hutton as having noticed that "a vast proportion of the present rocks are composed of materials afforded by the destruction of bodies, animal, vegetable and mineral, of more ancient formation". His theoretical ideas began to come together in 1760.
     
  231. @Olorin
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2LsGdCAfkI0/UO1GlIOWy1I/AAAAAAAAJ2M/fs6PrBHa9hA/s320/harpy+eagle+image.jpg

    The Simpsons – Queen Of The Harpies

  232. @Nick Diaz
    The most accurate estimate of the meteor's diameter is 10.6 kilometers. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_boundary It was a chondrite meteor, and most of the mass of chondrite meteors is composed of silicon and silicates, with various small amounts of other elements like Iridium and Vanadium. Based on the diameter of the meteor and the density of elemental Silicon and silicates, the meteor should have a mass of around 2 trillion tons.

    The meteor entered Earth's atmosphere on a 30 degree angle, based on the shape and distortion of the crater it left on impact. A mass of 2 trillion tons entering the Earth's atomosphere on a 3o degree angle would impact with a velocity around 50,000 mp/h. A mass of 2 trillion tons moving at a velocity of 50,000 mp/h has about 100 teratons of TNT in kinetic energy.

    National Geographic agrees with the figure of 100 trillion tons of TNT, or 100 teratons: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjeu5Pmsq7hAhWaErkGHdk3Bn8QFjAMegQIARAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.nationalgeographic.com%2F2016%2F06%2Fwhat-happened-day-dinosaurs-died-chicxulub-drilling-asteroid-science%2F&usg=AOvVaw1HMLFmKejoXDgvQM_Ug8Uh

    A mass of 2 trillion tons entering the Earth’s atomosphere on a 3o degree angle would impact with a velocity around 50,000 mp/h.

    No, an impactor hits with whatever speed it hits at, independent of its mass, and certainly not entirely dependent on it’s angle. Where did you get the information you copy-pasted?

    I got my information from an arXiv article from 2014 by two researchers at The National Autonomous University of Mexico. Tell me, Nick, should I not trust these Mexicans?

    Well, perhaps I shouldn’t. Here’s an older work, but peer-reviewed, and one that’s been cited much more:

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JE01743

    Which places the energy of the impactor in the range of 170 – 810 teratons. So the number I gave, and amended with a second look, was high. And the number you reflexively cite without any citation was low.

    • Replies: @Nick Diaz
    "No, an impactor hits with whatever speed it hits at, independent of its mass, and certainly not entirely dependent on it’s angle. Where did you get the information you copy-pasted?"

    Actually, wrong. The density of an object, and the angle that it falls certainly affect it's speed because air resistance will be different. Saying that this is not the case is like saying that a paper ball would fall as fast as a rock of the same size, or that an object falling through a column of air on a 30 degree angle would not go through a larger volume of air than the the same object falling in a straight line. Nonsense. While the gravitational acceleration of objects falling to Earth is the same at 9.8 meter/second regardless of mass, density and angle are certainly factors in speed. And whether a meteor is coming to Earth in a straight line, or is drawn to Earth from a parallel trajectory also affects it's speed.

    "I got my information from an arXiv article from 2014 by two researchers at The National Autonomous University of Mexico. Tell me, Nick, should I not trust these Mexicans?
    Well, perhaps I shouldn’t. Here’s an older work, but peer-reviewed, and one that’s been cited much more:
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JE01743
    Which places the energy of the impactor in the range of 170 – 810 teratons. So the number I gave, and amended with a second look, was high. And the number you reflexively cite without any citation was low."

    What do you mean by no citations? Do you mean pear-reviewed studies by physicists estimating the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor impact? Because I linked directly to a National Geographic article that agrees with the 100 teratons figure; you conversely, posted an estimate from the 1990's. I don't like using argumentum ad verecundiam, but methinks National Geographic has more credibility, especially when there is conflicting data between physicists.

    The bottom line is that the most accepted figure for the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor is 100 million megatons of TNT, or 100 teratons.

  233. @Anon
    OT

    UCLA is experiencing an anti-blackness epidemic. Or a hate hoax problem. You be the judge.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/14tUonDK5GEsXyU-8_tzM-8qqXNrgV_ge962k-P6xDjc/

    The timeline, based on the recent Afrikan Student Union press release:

    -- 1969: Two Black Panther members are shot and killed by a member of another black nationalist group in Campbell Hall. In an show of anti-blackness, UCLA has failed to honor the black-on-black murder victims by continuing to refuse to rename the building after them.

    -- 2006: UCLA black enrollment falls precipitously ... after Proposition 209 eliminates affirmative action based on race.

    -- 2013: Eight years later UC admissions have figured out how to game Proposition 209, and black enrollment is up, but in a show of blatent anti-blackness UCLA only graduates 55 percent of black students within four years, and gives them the lowest GPA of any race graduated.

    -- 2015: An off-campus frat gives a Kanye Western theme party, with female students sporting fake butt implants and '49ers carrying pans filled with "gold" to express gold digging, and gold miner "dirt" makeup on body that might be doubling as black face if you look really hard.

    -- 2018: "A Black Student was racially profiled, wrongfully approached, and questioned with hand on gun by UCPD." Neither Google search nor the Daily Bruin search knows anything about this incident.

    -- 2018/19: "Black students in graduate housing have been followed, terrorized, and told that 'they don’t belong' in University Apartment South housing." Ditto on Google search and Daily Bruin search, and amazingly, no mobile phone video or audio of any of these incidents has surfaced.

    The WE-DEMANDs?: A $40 million endowed Black Resource Center, plus various structural harrassment of whites in the form of reeducation and investigative committees manned by blacks.

    I had to laugh at this pathetic list of anti-black incidents: A half a century ago some blacks get into a fight and shoot each other on campus. Then blacks have trouble getting admitted, getting good grades, and graduating from UCLA because, based on their standardized test scores, they are, on average, substantially less capable than students of other races (and they seem to spend a lot more time on extracurricular activism than struggling students ought to: Hit the books!). The frat thing is a classic Twitter uproar that can hardly have affected black UCLA students in their studies.

    The last two incidents are mysteries, since I could not find any news articles. For the 2018 questioning we'd need to know the officer's side of the story. But for the graduate housing incidents, even without news reports they have a distinct aroma of Smollett: black students followed, terrorized, and told that "they don't belong." Terrorized, but no news report? "Told that they don't belong" is the sort of thing that blacks seem to obsess over, but whites don't really think about, like "nooses." Also, given the Proposition 209 fallout and graduation/GPA issues, there is a high probability of Freudian projection of a sort, of imagining someone is accussing you of something that you yourself are afraid may be true. So the housing incidents sound like urban legends that have grown as they have passed from person to person.

    By the way, the Afrikan Students Union claims that the average non-black graduate leaves with a GPA of 3.5, whereas blacks only graduate with a grade of pi, 3.14. Can it be true that half of UCLA graduates have an A-minus average? That seems considerably inflated from my UCLA days.

    Finally, why the K in Afrikan Students Union?

    Online explanations include claims that Africans used K, but colonialists substituted C (which implies that the Roman alphabet was developed in Wakanda), and that current Roman alphabet transliteration of various African languages uses K for the K sound (certainly true). But this is my favorite explanation:

    Before de arrival of european kkkolonialist, Afrika was originally spelled with a K. De continent gets its name from a Brotha who was emperor of de ancient Zingh Empire over 15,000 years ago. It wasn’t until after de arrival of de Italian general Scipio Africanus who conquered Afrika for de Italians many centuries later, that de hard K was replaced with de letter C. So Our spelling Afrika with a C represents Our conscious desire to once again come together in unity as one Peepoe, one Nation, with one destiny; with one flag: Red, blak, and green!
     
    So the Roman alphabet spelling with a K goes back 15,000 years. Forget Latin, the oldest Greek inscriptions are less than 3,000 years old.

    It’s not 1968 anymore. No one takes this kind of attempt to mau-mau the flak catchers seriously anymore. It’s on the level of Black Hebrew Israelites putting on fake costumes and haranguing the passers-by in Time Square or Nigerian scammers who email you claiming that they are some long lost prince – sophisticates laugh at this stuff nowadays.

    The racial con has moved to a MUCH higher level – think Barack Obama, with a sharp crease in his trousers and controlling the trillions from the White House. He’s not scheming for a measly $40 million to fund the Black Bruin Resource Center.

  234. @Unladen Swallow
    100-300 million megatons is the correct figure if memory serves, it may have been 13 billion times the Hiroshima bomb. I think 100 million megatons is 7 billion Hiroshimas.

    100-300 million megatons is the correct figure if memory serves, it may have been 13 billion times the Hiroshima bomb. I think 100 million megatons is 7 billion Hiroshimas.

    There doesn’t appear to be as much work on this topic as I would have thought, at least not that I can tell from a cursory Google search (hey – I don’t have all day – but I have become fairly adept at this). The most cited paper I could find was from 1997, and it places the yield from the impact in the range of 170,000 – 810,000 megatons.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JE01743

  235. @Buzz Mohawk
    Excellent. Thank you. I've been exposed to ideas like his on this subject, and I may have read him but can't remember. He gets it that there are basic, physical rules that any living organism must follow, and, um, "size matters."

    I'm just simple-minded enough to look at the sheer size of some of the dinosaurs, and to listen to men like Haldane and some engineers and biologists of today, and to agree that there is no way the big ones could have lived in 1 G.

    There are plenty of other example of gigantism from that era too. Some of the large, winged creatures could not fly in present day gravity and atmosphere, so you need either an air of syrup, or a smaller planet, or both.

    I think noticing things and thinking about their implications should be allowed for laymen.

    This is like the folks who say that it’s impossible for a bumblebee to fly – and yet there they are flying around. If your calculations say that it’s impossible for dinosaurs to walk around in 1G gravity and yet we have dinosaur fossils and little evidence that gravity or the size of the earth has changed, Occam’s Butterknife tells us that the more likely explanation is that your calculations are wrong. It’s very easy to make some wrong assumption about the strength or density of dinosaur bone or something.

    • Replies: @Trutherator
    Not the gravity was different, but the atmosphere was different, barometric pressure. Whales have no problem getting around.
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    OK Jack. You win. You know better. Your mother told you so -- and everyone else's mother like yours told everyone else like you. Good job.

    I am not the person who has said this stuff, and the Earth does display evidence of expansion. Make of that what you will.

    "Little evidence that gravity or the size of the Earth has changed???" We can't exactly go back and observe now, can we? There is compelling evidence that the Earth has grown. "Plate tectonics" and "continental drift" are wrong. There is expansion and expansion joints all around the sphere. Earth continiues to get bigger and to shit out matter along lines all around the continents. The continents ALL trace back and match ALL AROUND the planet. They all were closer together on a smaller sphere. This is more like Occam than the alternative. Science begins with observation (or should) and this now is simple observation.

    I admit, though, that my particular take on this is a lot like the idiot on another thread who eyeballed the Lunar Module at the Air & Space Museum and just can't see how it could have carried enough fuel to reach lunar orbit.

    So again, you win. I feel like s*it, as I almost always do, and you feel self-satisfied, as you are programmed to. Congratulations.

  236. Still fooled by the million years thing?

    Even some Darwinians, like the late Stephen Gould, admit that the fossil record testifies to the theory that, in his words, “It’s like it never happened!” He called it “the trade secret of paleontologists.”

    Of course he issued a “disclaimer” later, saying it did happen. But his “punctuated equilibrium” theory offers as evidence the very lack of evidence that he described as “like never happened” and as the “trade secret of paleontoligists”

    That is, the theory that uses a lack of evidence as evidence. And if you have faith in the neo-Darwinian view, it’s like any other “imaginary man in the sky”.

  237. @MBlanc46
    For those, interested, all the Pogo strips are being republished in book form.

    Can you provide a link? Thanks!

  238. @YetAnotherAnon
    I'd have thought the earlier fossil finds were the most important ever, in that they showed pretty much conclusively that the earth was much older than man, and that whole species had dominated then disappeared. This overturned the pre-Victorian idea of earth as more or less always the same.

    In order to reconcile this with Biblical creation, people like Philip Gosse were driven to assert that at the time of Creation, God had also created all the fossils for humans to find later. Possible (the ways of God are inscrutable) but unlikely on the face of it ("I cannot ... believe that God has written on the rocks one enormous and superfluous lie for all mankind").

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omphalos_(book)

    Od doesn’t lie. He created the dinosaurs. Fossils are found in sedimentary rock. Paleontologists know how fossils are formed in floods.

    The climate apparently did change after the Flood. Entomologists explain that insects have that small maximum size because of the way they oxygenate. But here are foot-long cockroach fossils.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    The Earth was covered by water a very long time ago, but I don't think Noah would have been around to see it. His Flood would have been a lot later - quite a few cultures have a flood story.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atra-Hasis#Synopsis

    Earth 4.4 billion years ago was flat and almost entirely covered in water with just a few small islands, new research suggests.

    Scientists came to the conclusion after analysing tiny zircon mineral grains from a region of Western Australia containing the oldest rocks ever found...

    The new research fits in with the “Cool Early Earth” theory that suggests a cool, quiet period followed the extreme conditions of Earth’s earliest history.

    It pre-dated the Late Heavy Bombardment 4.1 to 3.8 billion years ago when the Earth was pummelled by comets and asteroids.

    Bacterial life is thought to have emerged on Earth at the end of the bombardment around 3.8 billion years ago.
     
    My emboldening. Maybe Hoyle and Wickramsinghe's Panspermia Theory is right after all. Hoyle should have got a Nobel for stellar nucleosynthesis, but he was a heretic about the Big Bang.
  239. @Mr. Anon
    I remember when the Alvarez's (Pere et Fils) theory was first proposed in 1980. The experts (paleontologists) mostly poo-poo-ed it. Eventually, 10-15 years later, they came around. It was a scientific revolution that I witnessed in my lifetime.

    People thought Harry J. Marshall and Robin Warren were crazy when they suggested that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori caused ulcers. Two decades later, they won the Nobel prize for Medicine for their discovery.

    • Replies: @foolisholdman
    It wasn't so much that

    People thought Harry J. Marshall and Robin Warren were crazy when they suggested that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori caused ulcers.
     
    As that the pharmaceutical industry fought an intense rearguard action to try to prevent their discovery from leaking out. For ten whole years they very nearly succeeded. Even after the Nobel prize had been awarded, my brother went to a doctor about a stomach ulcer that he discovered he had and this doctor said he would stabilize it! He said that was not what he had in mind and went to another health centre who cured him in about three weeks.
  240. @Jack D
    This is like the folks who say that it's impossible for a bumblebee to fly - and yet there they are flying around. If your calculations say that it's impossible for dinosaurs to walk around in 1G gravity and yet we have dinosaur fossils and little evidence that gravity or the size of the earth has changed, Occam's Butterknife tells us that the more likely explanation is that your calculations are wrong. It's very easy to make some wrong assumption about the strength or density of dinosaur bone or something.

    Not the gravity was different, but the atmosphere was different, barometric pressure. Whales have no problem getting around.

  241. @Jack D
    I don't know what that point was, but at some point well prior to the Victorian period, people of a scientific bent must have begun to question whether the Biblical account of earth's creation was literally correct and offered a true timeline.

    I’m not sure they thought much about it – there were a lot more scientific discoveries to be made in that era. Bishop Ussher in the 18th C looked at the Mosaic genealogies and concluded the earth was formed around 4004 BC, but not much later James Hutton, a genius whose dreadful prose style concealed this fact from the world (he anticipated natural selection sixty years before Darwin), produced geological theories implying a much older earth.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ussher_chronology

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_the_Earth

    The British Isles were blessed with such talent during the 17th and 18th centuries. All he had to do was look, and think – how many farmers have dug, and drained, yet not seen what Hutton saw?

    In a 1753 letter he wrote that he had “become very fond of studying the surface of the earth, and was looking with anxious curiosity into every pit or ditch or bed of a river that fell in his way“. Clearing and draining his farm provided ample opportunities. The mathematician John Playfair described Hutton as having noticed that “a vast proportion of the present rocks are composed of materials afforded by the destruction of bodies, animal, vegetable and mineral, of more ancient formation“. His theoretical ideas began to come together in 1760.

  242. @Jack D
    This is like the folks who say that it's impossible for a bumblebee to fly - and yet there they are flying around. If your calculations say that it's impossible for dinosaurs to walk around in 1G gravity and yet we have dinosaur fossils and little evidence that gravity or the size of the earth has changed, Occam's Butterknife tells us that the more likely explanation is that your calculations are wrong. It's very easy to make some wrong assumption about the strength or density of dinosaur bone or something.

    OK Jack. You win. You know better. Your mother told you so — and everyone else’s mother like yours told everyone else like you. Good job.

    I am not the person who has said this stuff, and the Earth does display evidence of expansion. Make of that what you will.

    “Little evidence that gravity or the size of the Earth has changed???” We can’t exactly go back and observe now, can we? There is compelling evidence that the Earth has grown. “Plate tectonics” and “continental drift” are wrong. There is expansion and expansion joints all around the sphere. Earth continiues to get bigger and to shit out matter along lines all around the continents. The continents ALL trace back and match ALL AROUND the planet. They all were closer together on a smaller sphere. This is more like Occam than the alternative. Science begins with observation (or should) and this now is simple observation.

    I admit, though, that my particular take on this is a lot like the idiot on another thread who eyeballed the Lunar Module at the Air & Space Museum and just can’t see how it could have carried enough fuel to reach lunar orbit.

    So again, you win. I feel like s*it, as I almost always do, and you feel self-satisfied, as you are programmed to. Congratulations.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Sometimes the conventional wisdom is wrong, but most of the time, it ain't. Crazy conspiracy theories - vice versa.

    Usually these theories require double standards of proof - all the documentation in the world regarding the lunar module falls in the face of your observation that it's not big enough to carry enough fuel, but your contention that it was all filmed in a Hollywood studio requires no proof at all.

    , @butterscotch schnapps
    Don't let them get you down, Buzz. I'd never heard of this theory, nor ever once thought of all the problems that the enormous size of many dinosaurs should pose if they operated in our current gravity. But now I'm thinking and wondering and looking around at the information out there.

    It's also interesting that super large creatures of all types - mammals as well - seem only to have been able to evolve many many millions of years ago. Dinosaurs occupied a successful niche, so why didn't they or something else ever re-evolve to that huge size?

  243. @Buzz Mohawk
    OK Jack. You win. You know better. Your mother told you so -- and everyone else's mother like yours told everyone else like you. Good job.

    I am not the person who has said this stuff, and the Earth does display evidence of expansion. Make of that what you will.

    "Little evidence that gravity or the size of the Earth has changed???" We can't exactly go back and observe now, can we? There is compelling evidence that the Earth has grown. "Plate tectonics" and "continental drift" are wrong. There is expansion and expansion joints all around the sphere. Earth continiues to get bigger and to shit out matter along lines all around the continents. The continents ALL trace back and match ALL AROUND the planet. They all were closer together on a smaller sphere. This is more like Occam than the alternative. Science begins with observation (or should) and this now is simple observation.

    I admit, though, that my particular take on this is a lot like the idiot on another thread who eyeballed the Lunar Module at the Air & Space Museum and just can't see how it could have carried enough fuel to reach lunar orbit.

    So again, you win. I feel like s*it, as I almost always do, and you feel self-satisfied, as you are programmed to. Congratulations.

    Sometimes the conventional wisdom is wrong, but most of the time, it ain’t. Crazy conspiracy theories – vice versa.

    Usually these theories require double standards of proof – all the documentation in the world regarding the lunar module falls in the face of your observation that it’s not big enough to carry enough fuel, but your contention that it was all filmed in a Hollywood studio requires no proof at all.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Yep. Go well, smart man. (And I mean that with respect.)
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson 3

    Sometimes the conventional wisdom is wrong, but most of the time, it ain’t. Crazy conspiracy theories – vice versa.
     
    Yes, like phlogiston. Clearly its conventional wisdom ensured its truth. As was true about phrenology. And ....,

    Jack, are the universal constants truly constant? Given that our 'scientists' have used a circular definition to define them, are you sure they are what you assume they are? If they are not, Buzz could be right.

    The assumption of uniformity is just an assumption. The uniformists have a story. Buzz has another story. Buzz may be right.
  244. @Jack D
    Sometimes the conventional wisdom is wrong, but most of the time, it ain't. Crazy conspiracy theories - vice versa.

    Usually these theories require double standards of proof - all the documentation in the world regarding the lunar module falls in the face of your observation that it's not big enough to carry enough fuel, but your contention that it was all filmed in a Hollywood studio requires no proof at all.

    Yep. Go well, smart man. (And I mean that with respect.)

  245. @Buzz Mohawk
    All I know is that CN > g.

    When symbolically expressing CN comparisons, the preferred nomenclature is >>.

    • LOL: Buzz Mohawk
  246. res says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Can you give a reference (in English) that outlines their views? Which general systems principles do you see as being relevant here?
     
    I do not have the references handy but I can recall to you the main drift of the thinking.

    When we ask about the origins of the coal seams and the petroleum-bearing source rocks, geologists tell us that they are the remains of many ages of algal deposition along the bottom of "shallow inland seas." It was these seas that supported the major dinosaur taxa and, ringed by the great fern forests and conifers, the distinctive anthropoid life of the Mesozoic. Shallow inland seas once comprised a significant part of the geography of every continent, but there are no analogues to such features to be found on the Earth today.

    Circa 100mya and coincident with the rise to dominance of the angiosperms, the shallow inland seas began to disappear. Nobody knows why exactly this occurred, but the entire geophysical and biological aspect of the Earth began to alter radically at that time, and the age of the dinosaurs went into secular decline.

    But decline does not mean collapse. Species and even entire ecosystems that have already lived out their organic possibilities may continue to persist upon the surface of the Earth for tens and even hundreds of millions of years (by the common reckoning), as the case of the ferns tells us. There of course still ferns living dumbly among us, even though they have long since been superseded by the fully developed kingdoms of the conifers and the flowering plants. This is neither Darwinism nor catastrophism, but a new regime that appears like a new baby in a family and begins to grow up between and among and over the older forms.

    As for what caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, it is a moot point. The dinosaurs are not extinct. While many of the more connotated lineages died out, their bird and reptile descendants are happily among the living. Although it is for some reason impolite to say so, it is very hard to see how a celestial impact of sufficient violence to completely kill every last dinosaur would yet somehow leave these other creatures alive. The only logically supported conclusion is that the impact, if one even occurred, was not a decisive event, but if anything only removed an upper crust of forms long in senility and irrelevance.

    Thanks for elaborating, but that felt an awfully lot like moving the goalposts.

    Dinosaurs becoming extinct while other animals survived is an interesting point. Do you know of any extended analysis of that? My initial reaction is size is an important issue. This Quora answer seems like a good take on that idea: https://qr.ae/TW1HSz

    Of course that immediately raises the question of did any “small dinosaurs” survive. I don’t know enough about dinosaur/bird/reptile taxonomy and history to give a good answer to that, but would guess the answer was yes. Presumably those “small dinosaurs” were then outcompeted into extinction and/or evolved into something else (birds).

    Surely there is a good exploration of this somewhere?

    Though we can quibble about whether the impact itself was responsible for the extinctions or if the second order effects (e.g. vulcanism, dust clouds, etc.) did so over a longer period, I think it is hard to argue the impact was not the major contributing cause (both direct and indirect) to the timing of the extinctions.

  247. @YetAnotherAnon
    I'd have thought the earlier fossil finds were the most important ever, in that they showed pretty much conclusively that the earth was much older than man, and that whole species had dominated then disappeared. This overturned the pre-Victorian idea of earth as more or less always the same.

    In order to reconcile this with Biblical creation, people like Philip Gosse were driven to assert that at the time of Creation, God had also created all the fossils for humans to find later. Possible (the ways of God are inscrutable) but unlikely on the face of it ("I cannot ... believe that God has written on the rocks one enormous and superfluous lie for all mankind").

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omphalos_(book)

    I see your point and agree it has some force, but I think the issue is there was no single find that did that (as far as I know). More a long procession of additive evidence that even now still gets resistance from some quarters.

  248. @Dieter Kief
    This sounds quite iSteve! To the men on the look-out: Attention please! - The Intellectual Dark Web is approaching fast!
    By the way: Niall Ferguson gave a very clear (and detailed) interview to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung's René Scheu in March (it is still online for free), in which he said, that the left is so incredibly strong (especially in academic circles) because it was left off the hook morally in regard to Mao, Polt Pot, Lenin, Stalin, etc. ...

    Yes, but left off the hook by whom?

    Earlier Leftists.

    They have ruled the roost since at least 1945.

    • Agree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    I answer in #252.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Earlier Leftists.

    They have ruled the roost since at least 1945.
     
    Some would say since at least 1789.
  249. @Trutherator
    Od doesn't lie. He created the dinosaurs. Fossils are found in sedimentary rock. Paleontologists know how fossils are formed in floods.

    The climate apparently did change after the Flood. Entomologists explain that insects have that small maximum size because of the way they oxygenate. But here are foot-long cockroach fossils.

    The Earth was covered by water a very long time ago, but I don’t think Noah would have been around to see it. His Flood would have been a lot later – quite a few cultures have a flood story.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atra-Hasis#Synopsis

    Earth 4.4 billion years ago was flat and almost entirely covered in water with just a few small islands, new research suggests.

    Scientists came to the conclusion after analysing tiny zircon mineral grains from a region of Western Australia containing the oldest rocks ever found…

    The new research fits in with the “Cool Early Earth” theory that suggests a cool, quiet period followed the extreme conditions of Earth’s earliest history.

    It pre-dated the Late Heavy Bombardment 4.1 to 3.8 billion years ago when the Earth was pummelled by comets and asteroids.

    Bacterial life is thought to have emerged on Earth at the end of the bombardment around 3.8 billion years ago.

    My emboldening. Maybe Hoyle and Wickramsinghe’s Panspermia Theory is right after all. Hoyle should have got a Nobel for stellar nucleosynthesis, but he was a heretic about the Big Bang.

  250. @Another physicist
    They argued that the fossil record showed the extinction took place over 100's of thousands or millions of years. There were substantive arguments back and forth between Alvarez and the nay-sayers.

    I’ve read a few books by those guys. Not smart people.

    • Replies: @PhysicistDave
    gcochran wrote:

    I’ve read a few books by those guys [who doubted the Alvarez explanation of the extinction of the dinosaurs]. Not smart people.
     
    Well... ever since I heard Luis' talk, I have remained convinced that he and his son were right. It seems to me that their opponents, after the initial issues were hashed out, were just people who wanted some additional nuance: there is some evidence that the dinos had been in decline for some time, and the asteroid was merely the coup de grace.

    Still, the coup de grace is sort of the end. I think the Alvarez view is now, rightly, the dominant view.

  251. Ferguson names Habermas as one of the leftists responsible for letting Communism etc. off the moral hook. To my big surprise, I must say, the NZZ printed this statement of Ferguson.

    When Rolf-Peter Sieferle made the very same remarks a few years back, he was rejected and despised as a rightwing extremist Hitler-adorer… So – a change is happening. The left-wing Berlin online-magazine Perlentaucher set a link to the NZZ-interview and allowed my praises in the comment section. No earthquake happened, as I at first glance expected. Ferguson plays his cards in a brilliant way – and then there is his bright and strikingly beautiful wife – it is really not easy to despise him as a racist…

    Now Fritz Goergen has made a three parts mini-series about the NZZ Ferguson-Interview (!) in the liberal online-magazine Tichy’s Einblick. And today, the well-known and highly decorated Konstanz & Harvard biologist Axel Meyer has written an article in the Feuilleton of the FAZ in which he despises identity politics and the restrictions of free-speech by the academic left in the Anglosphere… – So: There clearly is something happenin’ here!

    Sieferles Finis Germania is short, sharp and eye-watering clear. – As is his immigration criticism in “Das Immigrationsproblem – Über die Unvereinbarkeit von Sozialstaat und Masseneinwaderung” (2017). some of Sieferles texts are online too – at times unfortunately in so-so translations on Alt-Right sites in the US.

  252. @Old Palo Altan
    Yes, but left off the hook by whom?

    Earlier Leftists.

    They have ruled the roost since at least 1945.

    I answer in #252.

    • Replies: @Old Palo Altan
    I've now read the Ferguson interview and,while I'm delighted to learn that it has hit a nerve, I found it depressingly typical of the man, who is, all in all, just one more Establishment historian.
    I first realised this when I looked over his books on the Rothschilds and then, in particular, his biography of Siegmund Warburg. I found it a very superficail effort, far eclipsed by Jacques Attali's biography of 30 years ago. For one thing it leaves out completely the figure of Sir William Wiseman, one of the great mystery men of the 20th century. Attali notices his importance, and gives him at least something of the attention he deserves. Since he was the most important partner in Kuhn Loeb, along with Otto Kahn, and was praised by everybody from Lord Reading to Edmund de Rothschild for his acumen and obliging ways, it is curious (unless one knows how controversial and murky a role he played during World War One) that he should be left out in a discussion of the very firm which gave Warburtg his start. Ferguson ignores him precisely because he is tricky, and establishment white washers don't like such figures (another one, much worse than Ferguson, is Andrew Roberts).
    So Ferguson is tolerated, while great figures like Sieferle and Sarrazin are vilified.

    I'll read the reactions you mention: I sencerely hope that a fire has been lit.

  253. @Paleo Liberal
    My father was a huge Pogo fan way back when. I grew up reading his Pogo book collections.

    At my father’s funeral, my brother read a poem by Walt Kelly

    Paleo, I didn’t fully appreciate “Pogo” until I started college. Biting sarcasm and good art.What’s not to like?

  254. Augustin wavered on Creation I hear, but he was too much a thinker, while St. Patrick was busy baptizing the Irish & teaching them literacy, & fighting against inter-island slavery.

    Isaac Newton said that the ability to do science was itself a proof of a rational Creator. And intentional Creation was implied by the solar system.

    So advances that opened up modern science were realized by scientists who believed Genesis One, as written. Even today you don’t hear about things like Russ Humpreys predicting the magnetic fields of the outer gas giant planets based on the exact wording of Gen. 1, while the NASA scientists were exponentially off.

    Plenty more, If you are not timid to find out why Creationist scientists trounced Creation deniers in fair debates until they gave up.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    So advances that opened up modern science were realized by scientists who believed Genesis One, as written. Even today you don’t hear about things like Russ Humpreys predicting the magnetic fields of the outer gas giant planets based on the exact wording of Gen. 1,
     
    That's because he didn't. Or, can you explain how he did so?

    ...............while the NASA scientists were exponentially off.
     
    What do you mean by "exponentially off". People use the term "exponentially" quite a lot now without, I think, knowing what it means or what they mean by it.
  255. @cthulhu
    Everybody seems to have forgotten about Al Capp’s Lil’ Abner, which was the archetype for the satirical, socially-aware comic strip. Pogo was about ten years later.

    I was too young for both of them, but I remember my dad reading the Sunday Pogo to me when I was just a tyke. Good times.

    ct, I read “lil Abner” when I was a teen. Al could draw a fantasy worthy woman Daisy Mae. “Pogo” was a classic.

    • Replies: @Simply Simon
    Yipes, you guys are so young. Back in the 1930s one of my friends who had money passed on to me the early versions of Superman , Captain Marvel, and The Green Lantern The Sunday comic strips had Smilin Jack, Terry and the Pirates and even back then Lil Abner and Dick Tracy. A true classic was Krazy Kat by George Hermann. My role model nowadays is Pickles.
  256. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack Hanson
    Plate tectonics was derided as quakery until the 60s.

    Going to bring out our JIDF contingent on this one but the best thing that could happen to physics would be if the worship of Einstein could be set aside.

    Plate tectonics was derided as quackery until the 60s.

    Which is pretty amazing and educating of how science works. As a kid with a rather nice globe, I came up with the same idea independently – simply because it was screaming obvious just looking at the the globe. Sure, one or two complementarities could have been random but when inspection shows clear signs of over 10 of them, the probability of an accidental similarity quickly goes down to near zero.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    What's "obvious" isn't a good guide to what's true. People used to think it was obvious that heavy objects fall faster than light ones. In fact this was so obvious that it was centuries before anybody bothered to actually test if it was true.

    How could you know that it was the seafloor that was spreading and not (say) the continents that were shrinking, or the diameter of the globe that was increasing?

    The problems with plate tectonics before the 1960s were that the movement of the continents could not be measured, that the seafloor could not be seen, and that the age of seafloor could not be measured.

  257. @Old Palo Altan
    Yes, but left off the hook by whom?

    Earlier Leftists.

    They have ruled the roost since at least 1945.

    Earlier Leftists.

    They have ruled the roost since at least 1945.

    Some would say since at least 1789.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    If Washington and Franklin are wrong I don’t want to be right.
  258. @Buzz Mohawk
    All I know is that CN > g.

    All I know is that CN > g.

    Canadian National is bigger than Google? They should tidy up their tracks around here. CP as well.

  259. @Dieter Kief
    I answer in #252.

    I’ve now read the Ferguson interview and,while I’m delighted to learn that it has hit a nerve, I found it depressingly typical of the man, who is, all in all, just one more Establishment historian.
    I first realised this when I looked over his books on the Rothschilds and then, in particular, his biography of Siegmund Warburg. I found it a very superficail effort, far eclipsed by Jacques Attali’s biography of 30 years ago. For one thing it leaves out completely the figure of Sir William Wiseman, one of the great mystery men of the 20th century. Attali notices his importance, and gives him at least something of the attention he deserves. Since he was the most important partner in Kuhn Loeb, along with Otto Kahn, and was praised by everybody from Lord Reading to Edmund de Rothschild for his acumen and obliging ways, it is curious (unless one knows how controversial and murky a role he played during World War One) that he should be left out in a discussion of the very firm which gave Warburtg his start. Ferguson ignores him precisely because he is tricky, and establishment white washers don’t like such figures (another one, much worse than Ferguson, is Andrew Roberts).
    So Ferguson is tolerated, while great figures like Sieferle and Sarrazin are vilified.

    I’ll read the reactions you mention: I sencerely hope that a fire has been lit.

  260. @ThreeCranes
    The sixty four thousand dollar question.

    Because the currency exchange rate mechanism is broken. In the standard model, the U.S. as a nation that runs persistent trade deficits, should be forced to adjust the value of its currency relative to its trading partners. That and pay a high rate of interest on its Treasury bonds. China, of course, doesn't want to lose the U.S. as an export market so they link their currency to ours.

    Since oil is denominated in dollars and since the use of oil is expanding even into third world countries, demand for dollars is persistent. As long as our military can impose our will on the world, we can run deficits. When the music stops then it's everyone scrambling for a chair. And the big guns start popping.

    But is Russia-China oil and gas trade still denominated in US Dollars? I thought that they were denominating a lot of such trade in yuan and rubles in the past few years.

    Isn’t India also taking steps to settle some of its energy purchases from Russia and Iran in rubles and rupees instead of US Dollars?

    China has increased its oil and gas purchases from Russia, and India has been increasing its oil imports from Iran despite the US government’s threats of sanctions etc. So the de-dollarization of the aforementioned trade pairings should, in time, have a noticeable effect on the value of the US dollar and its continuing viability as “the” world reserve currency.

    Would be great to see a breakdown of China and India’s energy imports from Russia and Iran: what percentage are in US Dollars and what percentage are in other currencies, and how fast is the ratio changing?

  261. @Buzz Mohawk

    "An average argentinosaurus, weighing around 90 tons and measuring 140 feet..."
     
    Kinda brings me to my point about Earth's gravity -- and the just slightly, remotely-conceivable, crackpot idea that it just might, perhaps, not have been as strong then.

    Ergo, the planet just possibly, maybe, wasn't as big then.

    Bone density has a relationship with gravity. For example – astronauts that spend extended periods of time in zero gravity have a measurable decrease in bone density.

    So I guess my questions is: Is there a way to (accurately) measure bone density in larger dinosaur fossils and compare to current large terrestrial animals’ (elephants, for example) bone density? If so, would this provide any proof or disproof of the expansion theory?

  262. @Reg Cæsar

    Earlier Leftists.

    They have ruled the roost since at least 1945.
     
    Some would say since at least 1789.

    If Washington and Franklin are wrong I don’t want to be right.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson 3

    If Washington and Franklin are wrong I don’t want to be right.
     
    Reg Caesar writes regarding a different continent.

    We are ruled by the idiots comprising the "International Left (tm)." Their American acolytes occupy the commanding heights in our culture and government, but their inability to learn from either experience or reason ensure that we will have a nasty, unpleasant and ugly divorce between us and them.

    Stupidity has an amazing momentum. Let us hope we can arrest its absurd idiocy before it sucks us all into the its vortex.
  263. @Intelligent Dasein
    Interest rates are extremely manipulated. The central banks of the world have bought huge amounts of treasury issuance. Even now, there are $11 trillion of government debt trading at negative interest rates. This is not a natural situation and were the central banks ever to unwind their balance sheets---as the Fed made the feeblest effort to do last year, which quickly sent the 10-year back above 3% and the stock market tanking---the whole Ponzi scheme would collapse.

    Wouldn’t bond vigilantes assert themselves at some point?

  264. @Jack D
    Sometimes the conventional wisdom is wrong, but most of the time, it ain't. Crazy conspiracy theories - vice versa.

    Usually these theories require double standards of proof - all the documentation in the world regarding the lunar module falls in the face of your observation that it's not big enough to carry enough fuel, but your contention that it was all filmed in a Hollywood studio requires no proof at all.

    Sometimes the conventional wisdom is wrong, but most of the time, it ain’t. Crazy conspiracy theories – vice versa.

    Yes, like phlogiston. Clearly its conventional wisdom ensured its truth. As was true about phrenology. And ….,

    Jack, are the universal constants truly constant? Given that our ‘scientists’ have used a circular definition to define them, are you sure they are what you assume they are? If they are not, Buzz could be right.

    The assumption of uniformity is just an assumption. The uniformists have a story. Buzz has another story. Buzz may be right.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Phlogiston was a long time ago. The luminiferous ether is a more recent example. Scientific CW is not always right but it's USUALLY right, just like what I said before.
  265. I remember reading about how hostile and petty Professor L. Alvarez had been towards a scientist who had preferred an alternative (e.g. volcanic) explanation.

    Prof Alvarez politicked to have academic tenure denied to the skeptic.

  266. Ha, ha, ha!… and I’ll raise you a footprint, at h-t-t-p-s://bit(dot)ly/2SYPnSv!… but check out the three immediately below first!…
    .
    https://bit.ly/2GHWeco
    https://bit.ly/2VmtBF7
    https://bit.ly/2Eu3Xs5
    .
    https://bit.ly/2SYPnSv (Although we cannot see the ultimate length of the embedded footprint, I estimate the footprint to be 4 X the height of the person we see, at 5 feet and 5 inches tall… i.e., 20 feet and 20 inches long… and so, let’s say, 22 feet long. Multiplied by a factor 6.6… and based upon the information within the last URL above… the height of the person that made this footprint, was roughly 145.2 feet in height. That is to say, 22 ft. x 12 inches x 6.6 inches divided by 12.)
    .
    And so, this 44.25696m tall dude would probably have had a DINORNITHOS for lunch!… although, this dude appears to have arrived on the scene well before our “birdie” came into existence! Yup!… a 145.2 feet tall dude that PREDATED the DINORNITHOS!
    .
    Seriously!… Editors!… I think you should track the footprint in the URL above!

  267. @Buzz Mohawk
    OK Jack. You win. You know better. Your mother told you so -- and everyone else's mother like yours told everyone else like you. Good job.

    I am not the person who has said this stuff, and the Earth does display evidence of expansion. Make of that what you will.

    "Little evidence that gravity or the size of the Earth has changed???" We can't exactly go back and observe now, can we? There is compelling evidence that the Earth has grown. "Plate tectonics" and "continental drift" are wrong. There is expansion and expansion joints all around the sphere. Earth continiues to get bigger and to shit out matter along lines all around the continents. The continents ALL trace back and match ALL AROUND the planet. They all were closer together on a smaller sphere. This is more like Occam than the alternative. Science begins with observation (or should) and this now is simple observation.

    I admit, though, that my particular take on this is a lot like the idiot on another thread who eyeballed the Lunar Module at the Air & Space Museum and just can't see how it could have carried enough fuel to reach lunar orbit.

    So again, you win. I feel like s*it, as I almost always do, and you feel self-satisfied, as you are programmed to. Congratulations.

    Don’t let them get you down, Buzz. I’d never heard of this theory, nor ever once thought of all the problems that the enormous size of many dinosaurs should pose if they operated in our current gravity. But now I’m thinking and wondering and looking around at the information out there.

    It’s also interesting that super large creatures of all types – mammals as well – seem only to have been able to evolve many many millions of years ago. Dinosaurs occupied a successful niche, so why didn’t they or something else ever re-evolve to that huge size?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    Thank you. The theory is just about as old as our now-established continental drift, "plate tectonics" itself. When one looks at the whole globe itself, instead of a flat map, one sees that the continents haven't just drifted around and bumped into each other, willy nilly, but rather they have been moving apart in all directions on a sphere.

    There was not a single "Pangea" surrounded by oceans. Rather, there was a smaller sphere on which all continents fit together neatly over the whole globe.

    The very large spread of the Pacific Ocean is what gives the illusion that the "drifting" is only evidenced between the Americas and Europe-Africa. The Atlantic spread is obvious, but everyone ignores the much greater Pacific spread. The continents really do fit together on that side too.

    The ocean floor maps and ages make this very clear. Newer, younger material has been forming along lines that run all over the globe, between all of the continents.

    There have been very good models and animations of this for years. In my opinion, Occam would find this theory much more obvious and suitable than current orthodoxy.

    All of this leads to the question: Why does the expansion happen, and what does that imply for science in general?. If this is real, it seems to me that it necessitates big changes far beyond geology.

    To those who (perhaps rightly) insist that any explanation must conform to existing knowledge, my response is that science begins with observation. If observations are so obvious, then we must find an explanation for them, even if current knowledge is not adequate. How do you think we got this far, anyway? You don't "grow" by holding onto only what you already have. Pun intended.

    , @Senator Brundlefly
    "It’s also interesting that super large creatures of all types – mammals as well – seem only to have been able to evolve many many millions of years ago. Dinosaurs occupied a successful niche, so why didn’t they or something else ever re-evolve to that huge size?"

    Just because something occurred once under a very specific set of circumstances does not mean it will inevitably happen again. Convergent evolution happens but that doesn't mean it will always happen. There are geckos that can comfortably fit on a dime. Doesn't mean mammals will inevitably go that small. Sauropod dinosaurs were able to reach enormous sizes because of their very efficient lung and airsac system (the same lung/airsac system that allow birds to fly to high altitudes), allowing them to be lighter for their size and get oxygen efficiently enough.
  268. @butterscotch schnapps
    Don't let them get you down, Buzz. I'd never heard of this theory, nor ever once thought of all the problems that the enormous size of many dinosaurs should pose if they operated in our current gravity. But now I'm thinking and wondering and looking around at the information out there.

    It's also interesting that super large creatures of all types - mammals as well - seem only to have been able to evolve many many millions of years ago. Dinosaurs occupied a successful niche, so why didn't they or something else ever re-evolve to that huge size?

    Thank you. The theory is just about as old as our now-established continental drift, “plate tectonics” itself. When one looks at the whole globe itself, instead of a flat map, one sees that the continents haven’t just drifted around and bumped into each other, willy nilly, but rather they have been moving apart in all directions on a sphere.

    There was not a single “Pangea” surrounded by oceans. Rather, there was a smaller sphere on which all continents fit together neatly over the whole globe.

    The very large spread of the Pacific Ocean is what gives the illusion that the “drifting” is only evidenced between the Americas and Europe-Africa. The Atlantic spread is obvious, but everyone ignores the much greater Pacific spread. The continents really do fit together on that side too.

    The ocean floor maps and ages make this very clear. Newer, younger material has been forming along lines that run all over the globe, between all of the continents.

    There have been very good models and animations of this for years. In my opinion, Occam would find this theory much more obvious and suitable than current orthodoxy.

    All of this leads to the question: Why does the expansion happen, and what does that imply for science in general?. If this is real, it seems to me that it necessitates big changes far beyond geology.

    To those who (perhaps rightly) insist that any explanation must conform to existing knowledge, my response is that science begins with observation. If observations are so obvious, then we must find an explanation for them, even if current knowledge is not adequate. How do you think we got this far, anyway? You don’t “grow” by holding onto only what you already have. Pun intended.

    • Replies: @res

    The ocean floor maps and ages make this very clear. Newer, younger material has been forming along lines that run all over the globe, between all of the continents.
     
    Keep in mind that material is both being brought up and sinking down. See subduction zones: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subduction

    Where do you think the matter to expand the Earth is coming from? Do you think conservation of matter holds within the Earth minus external inputs like meteors?

  269. @Reg Cæsar
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/b8/52/cf/b852cf2647fdb13718790385bb529d7b.jpg

    http://themillenniumreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/worlds-in-collision-20.jpg

    The Saturn Hypothesis explains so much in global mythology (Great Ages, multiple cultures agreeing that Jupiter or local equivalent fought and defeated Saturn or local equivalent, star in crescent image — illogical as the Moon, and the abrupt explosion of interest in astronomy and precise measurement) but no astronomer accepts it because it depends on special conditions that make string theory look responsible.
    Fear not, we’re on track for another scientific revoution, and when it takes hold you will be able to propose whatever theory you want and nobody will be able to be certain that you are wrong.

  270. @Anon
    OT

    UCLA is experiencing an anti-blackness epidemic. Or a hate hoax problem. You be the judge.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/14tUonDK5GEsXyU-8_tzM-8qqXNrgV_ge962k-P6xDjc/

    The timeline, based on the recent Afrikan Student Union press release:

    -- 1969: Two Black Panther members are shot and killed by a member of another black nationalist group in Campbell Hall. In an show of anti-blackness, UCLA has failed to honor the black-on-black murder victims by continuing to refuse to rename the building after them.

    -- 2006: UCLA black enrollment falls precipitously ... after Proposition 209 eliminates affirmative action based on race.

    -- 2013: Eight years later UC admissions have figured out how to game Proposition 209, and black enrollment is up, but in a show of blatent anti-blackness UCLA only graduates 55 percent of black students within four years, and gives them the lowest GPA of any race graduated.

    -- 2015: An off-campus frat gives a Kanye Western theme party, with female students sporting fake butt implants and '49ers carrying pans filled with "gold" to express gold digging, and gold miner "dirt" makeup on body that might be doubling as black face if you look really hard.

    -- 2018: "A Black Student was racially profiled, wrongfully approached, and questioned with hand on gun by UCPD." Neither Google search nor the Daily Bruin search knows anything about this incident.

    -- 2018/19: "Black students in graduate housing have been followed, terrorized, and told that 'they don’t belong' in University Apartment South housing." Ditto on Google search and Daily Bruin search, and amazingly, no mobile phone video or audio of any of these incidents has surfaced.

    The WE-DEMANDs?: A $40 million endowed Black Resource Center, plus various structural harrassment of whites in the form of reeducation and investigative committees manned by blacks.

    I had to laugh at this pathetic list of anti-black incidents: A half a century ago some blacks get into a fight and shoot each other on campus. Then blacks have trouble getting admitted, getting good grades, and graduating from UCLA because, based on their standardized test scores, they are, on average, substantially less capable than students of other races (and they seem to spend a lot more time on extracurricular activism than struggling students ought to: Hit the books!). The frat thing is a classic Twitter uproar that can hardly have affected black UCLA students in their studies.

    The last two incidents are mysteries, since I could not find any news articles. For the 2018 questioning we'd need to know the officer's side of the story. But for the graduate housing incidents, even without news reports they have a distinct aroma of Smollett: black students followed, terrorized, and told that "they don't belong." Terrorized, but no news report? "Told that they don't belong" is the sort of thing that blacks seem to obsess over, but whites don't really think about, like "nooses." Also, given the Proposition 209 fallout and graduation/GPA issues, there is a high probability of Freudian projection of a sort, of imagining someone is accussing you of something that you yourself are afraid may be true. So the housing incidents sound like urban legends that have grown as they have passed from person to person.

    By the way, the Afrikan Students Union claims that the average non-black graduate leaves with a GPA of 3.5, whereas blacks only graduate with a grade of pi, 3.14. Can it be true that half of UCLA graduates have an A-minus average? That seems considerably inflated from my UCLA days.

    Finally, why the K in Afrikan Students Union?

    Online explanations include claims that Africans used K, but colonialists substituted C (which implies that the Roman alphabet was developed in Wakanda), and that current Roman alphabet transliteration of various African languages uses K for the K sound (certainly true). But this is my favorite explanation:

    Before de arrival of european kkkolonialist, Afrika was originally spelled with a K. De continent gets its name from a Brotha who was emperor of de ancient Zingh Empire over 15,000 years ago. It wasn’t until after de arrival of de Italian general Scipio Africanus who conquered Afrika for de Italians many centuries later, that de hard K was replaced with de letter C. So Our spelling Afrika with a C represents Our conscious desire to once again come together in unity as one Peepoe, one Nation, with one destiny; with one flag: Red, blak, and green!
     
    So the Roman alphabet spelling with a K goes back 15,000 years. Forget Latin, the oldest Greek inscriptions are less than 3,000 years old.

    … gives them the lowest GPA of any race graduated.
    … gold miner “dirt” makeup on body that might be doubling as black face if you look really hard.

    Is this not satire?

  271. @Buffalo Joe
    ct, I read "lil Abner" when I was a teen. Al could draw a fantasy worthy woman Daisy Mae. "Pogo" was a classic.

    Yipes, you guys are so young. Back in the 1930s one of my friends who had money passed on to me the early versions of Superman , Captain Marvel, and The Green Lantern The Sunday comic strips had Smilin Jack, Terry and the Pirates and even back then Lil Abner and Dick Tracy. A true classic was Krazy Kat by George Hermann. My role model nowadays is Pickles.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Simply, Not so young and I remember those Sunday Funnies, "Jiggs" (Bringing up Father) and Katzenjammer Kids, Buz Sawyer (super hot wife) and the soap opera Mary Worth.
    , @res

    Back in the 1930s one of my friends who had money passed on to me the early versions of Superman , Captain Marvel, and The Green Lantern The Sunday comic strips had Smilin Jack, Terry and the Pirates and even back then Lil Abner and Dick Tracy. A true classic was Krazy Kat by George Hermann.
     
    I hope you kept them!

    For those who are interested, many of those comics have been reprinted in book form. Here are two examples:
    https://www.amazon.com/Lil-Abner-Complete-Dailies-1934-1936/dp/1600106110
    https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Terry-Pirates-Vol-1934-1936/dp/1600101003
    Worth checking for in your local library.
  272. @butterscotch schnapps
    Don't let them get you down, Buzz. I'd never heard of this theory, nor ever once thought of all the problems that the enormous size of many dinosaurs should pose if they operated in our current gravity. But now I'm thinking and wondering and looking around at the information out there.

    It's also interesting that super large creatures of all types - mammals as well - seem only to have been able to evolve many many millions of years ago. Dinosaurs occupied a successful niche, so why didn't they or something else ever re-evolve to that huge size?

    “It’s also interesting that super large creatures of all types – mammals as well – seem only to have been able to evolve many many millions of years ago. Dinosaurs occupied a successful niche, so why didn’t they or something else ever re-evolve to that huge size?”

    Just because something occurred once under a very specific set of circumstances does not mean it will inevitably happen again. Convergent evolution happens but that doesn’t mean it will always happen. There are geckos that can comfortably fit on a dime. Doesn’t mean mammals will inevitably go that small. Sauropod dinosaurs were able to reach enormous sizes because of their very efficient lung and airsac system (the same lung/airsac system that allow birds to fly to high altitudes), allowing them to be lighter for their size and get oxygen efficiently enough.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    The oxygen concentration in the atmosphere has been much higher in the past as well.
    , @butterscotch schnapps
    But it didn't just "occur once under a very specific set of circumstances". Hundreds of millions of years ago there were many, many, many species and various types of super-large dinosaurs. And that was obviously a winning evolutionary strategy, since dinosaurs 'ruled the world' for eons.

    And tens and tens of millions of years ago there were also many, many super large mammals. I remember, for just one example, an article a few years ago about the fossil of some kind of rat like creature found in South America that was the size of a small car. Yet in more recent times - the last million years, say - the evidence dries up for any animals growing to super sizes.

    So it didn't just happen once as you saw. It apparently used to be common on this planet for reptiles and mammals to grow extremely large.

    You're right, of course, that just because something has happened before, it's not inevitable that it will happen again. But if it's something that has happened very often, than it becomes more surprising when it never happens again, and more in need of explanation. And now I'm wondering now why the conventional wisdom can't come up with a better answer than to hand wave the phenomenom away.

  273. @Charles Erwin Wilson 3

    Sometimes the conventional wisdom is wrong, but most of the time, it ain’t. Crazy conspiracy theories – vice versa.
     
    Yes, like phlogiston. Clearly its conventional wisdom ensured its truth. As was true about phrenology. And ....,

    Jack, are the universal constants truly constant? Given that our 'scientists' have used a circular definition to define them, are you sure they are what you assume they are? If they are not, Buzz could be right.

    The assumption of uniformity is just an assumption. The uniformists have a story. Buzz has another story. Buzz may be right.

    Phlogiston was a long time ago. The luminiferous ether is a more recent example. Scientific CW is not always right but it’s USUALLY right, just like what I said before.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson 3

    Scientific CW is not always right but it’s USUALLY right, just like what I said before.
     
    Okay, you want to play the numbers. I understand. But how do you identify the theories that expand our knowledge? I'll bet you have read Kuhn's seminal work. If you accept his thesis, you won't accept the scientific conventional wisdom, ever. If not, the charlatans will happily take your money.

    You normally turn a skeptical eye toward anyone seeking access to your money. And you are right to do so. Except here....

    Credulity does not seem to be your strong suit. But those who include the adjective "scientific" get a pass from you?

    Jack, really, this quality is unbecoming for someone with your capacious mind.
    , @PiltdownMan
    The luminiferous ether died a very slow death as an explanatory mechanism. Even James Clark Maxwell resorted to it, in part. But even he could see that it really was a stretch, and becoming more and more implausible. Quoting him from Wikipedia.


    Aethers were invented for the planets to swim in, to constitute electric atmospheres and magnetic effluvia, to convey sensations from one part of our bodies to another, and so on, until all space had been filled three or four times over with aethers. ... The only aether which has survived is that which was invented by Huygens to explain the propagation of light.
     
    That Wikipedia article of the lumineferous ether is quite good, as Wikipedia's articles on science often are.
  274. @Jack D
    Google it. You know how in some sushi restaurants sushi comes presented on a boat? Substitute "girl" for "boat" and you'll have it.

    Google it. You know how in some sushi restaurants sushi comes presented on a boat? Substitute “girl” for “boat” and you’ll have it.

    Oh dear God. Damn you Jack, you persuaded me to google it and it’s a real thing.

  275. @Desiderius
    If Washington and Franklin are wrong I don’t want to be right.

    If Washington and Franklin are wrong I don’t want to be right.

    Reg Caesar writes regarding a different continent.

    We are ruled by the idiots comprising the “International Left ™.” Their American acolytes occupy the commanding heights in our culture and government, but their inability to learn from either experience or reason ensure that we will have a nasty, unpleasant and ugly divorce between us and them.

    Stupidity has an amazing momentum. Let us hope we can arrest its absurd idiocy before it sucks us all into the its vortex.

  276. @Simply Simon
    Yipes, you guys are so young. Back in the 1930s one of my friends who had money passed on to me the early versions of Superman , Captain Marvel, and The Green Lantern The Sunday comic strips had Smilin Jack, Terry and the Pirates and even back then Lil Abner and Dick Tracy. A true classic was Krazy Kat by George Hermann. My role model nowadays is Pickles.

    Simply, Not so young and I remember those Sunday Funnies, “Jiggs” (Bringing up Father) and Katzenjammer Kids, Buz Sawyer (super hot wife) and the soap opera Mary Worth.

    • Replies: @res
    Joe, Simply Simon is ninety so perhaps one of the few here who gets to call you young ; )
    , @PiltdownMan
    I remember my dad (b. 1917) talking about reading The Katzenjammer Kids in the paper after my grandad was done with it.

    Some of those comic strips had a really long life. I was surprised to learn, just now, that Bringing Up Father ran from 1913 to 2000. I've never seen The Katzenjammer Kids in a newspaper, but apparently some papers still run the old strips, which makes it the longest running comic strip, 1897 to the present day.
  277. @Jack D
    Phlogiston was a long time ago. The luminiferous ether is a more recent example. Scientific CW is not always right but it's USUALLY right, just like what I said before.

    Scientific CW is not always right but it’s USUALLY right, just like what I said before.

    Okay, you want to play the numbers. I understand. But how do you identify the theories that expand our knowledge? I’ll bet you have read Kuhn’s seminal work. If you accept his thesis, you won’t accept the scientific conventional wisdom, ever. If not, the charlatans will happily take your money.

    You normally turn a skeptical eye toward anyone seeking access to your money. And you are right to do so. Except here….

    Credulity does not seem to be your strong suit. But those who include the adjective “scientific” get a pass from you?

    Jack, really, this quality is unbecoming for someone with your capacious mind.

    • Replies: @res

    But how do you identify the theories that expand our knowledge?
     
    That's the challenge. The best way I know is to look at the evidence and see what theories best match that. Sometimes it is obvious (e.g. HBD), but most often not.

    The kind of evidence free argument you make in that comment is unconvincing to me.
  278. res says:
    @Buzz Mohawk
    Thank you. The theory is just about as old as our now-established continental drift, "plate tectonics" itself. When one looks at the whole globe itself, instead of a flat map, one sees that the continents haven't just drifted around and bumped into each other, willy nilly, but rather they have been moving apart in all directions on a sphere.

    There was not a single "Pangea" surrounded by oceans. Rather, there was a smaller sphere on which all continents fit together neatly over the whole globe.

    The very large spread of the Pacific Ocean is what gives the illusion that the "drifting" is only evidenced between the Americas and Europe-Africa. The Atlantic spread is obvious, but everyone ignores the much greater Pacific spread. The continents really do fit together on that side too.

    The ocean floor maps and ages make this very clear. Newer, younger material has been forming along lines that run all over the globe, between all of the continents.

    There have been very good models and animations of this for years. In my opinion, Occam would find this theory much more obvious and suitable than current orthodoxy.

    All of this leads to the question: Why does the expansion happen, and what does that imply for science in general?. If this is real, it seems to me that it necessitates big changes far beyond geology.

    To those who (perhaps rightly) insist that any explanation must conform to existing knowledge, my response is that science begins with observation. If observations are so obvious, then we must find an explanation for them, even if current knowledge is not adequate. How do you think we got this far, anyway? You don't "grow" by holding onto only what you already have. Pun intended.

    The ocean floor maps and ages make this very clear. Newer, younger material has been forming along lines that run all over the globe, between all of the continents.

    Keep in mind that material is both being brought up and sinking down. See subduction zones: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subduction

    Where do you think the matter to expand the Earth is coming from? Do you think conservation of matter holds within the Earth minus external inputs like meteors?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    That's the big question with implications beyond geology: If there really is growth, rather than some kind of expansion of existing material, then where would the new matter be coming from? External inputs are far too small, and science requires conservation of matter, so, if observations indicting growth are correct, then by what process and from what source does this come?

    Subduction was hypothesized to explain plate tectonics when nobody noticed that the continents fit together on all sides, including the Pacific, but it is clear that all continents fit together like puzzle pieces on a smaller sphere, and the undersea observations go all the way around those pieces, tracking back in time perfectly.

    I am simply drawing attention to an observation. I don't claim to know that it is correct. Thanks for reasonably discussing it. I understand that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the claim that new matter is somehow being produced inside planets certainly is extraordinary.

  279. res says:
    @Simply Simon
    Yipes, you guys are so young. Back in the 1930s one of my friends who had money passed on to me the early versions of Superman , Captain Marvel, and The Green Lantern The Sunday comic strips had Smilin Jack, Terry and the Pirates and even back then Lil Abner and Dick Tracy. A true classic was Krazy Kat by George Hermann. My role model nowadays is Pickles.

    Back in the 1930s one of my friends who had money passed on to me the early versions of Superman , Captain Marvel, and The Green Lantern The Sunday comic strips had Smilin Jack, Terry and the Pirates and even back then Lil Abner and Dick Tracy. A true classic was Krazy Kat by George Hermann.

    I hope you kept them!

    For those who are interested, many of those comics have been reprinted in book form. Here are two examples:
    https://www.amazon.com/Lil-Abner-Complete-Dailies-1934-1936/dp/1600106110
    https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Terry-Pirates-Vol-1934-1936/dp/1600101003
    Worth checking for in your local library.

  280. @Buffalo Joe
    Simply, Not so young and I remember those Sunday Funnies, "Jiggs" (Bringing up Father) and Katzenjammer Kids, Buz Sawyer (super hot wife) and the soap opera Mary Worth.

    Joe, Simply Simon is ninety so perhaps one of the few here who gets to call you young ; )

  281. res says:
    @Charles Erwin Wilson 3

    Scientific CW is not always right but it’s USUALLY right, just like what I said before.
     
    Okay, you want to play the numbers. I understand. But how do you identify the theories that expand our knowledge? I'll bet you have read Kuhn's seminal work. If you accept his thesis, you won't accept the scientific conventional wisdom, ever. If not, the charlatans will happily take your money.

    You normally turn a skeptical eye toward anyone seeking access to your money. And you are right to do so. Except here....

    Credulity does not seem to be your strong suit. But those who include the adjective "scientific" get a pass from you?

    Jack, really, this quality is unbecoming for someone with your capacious mind.

    But how do you identify the theories that expand our knowledge?

    That’s the challenge. The best way I know is to look at the evidence and see what theories best match that. Sometimes it is obvious (e.g. HBD), but most often not.

    The kind of evidence free argument you make in that comment is unconvincing to me.

  282. @Buffalo Joe
    Ach, #3 Bloom County.

    3: Harv Kurtzman

  283. @Jack D
    Phlogiston was a long time ago. The luminiferous ether is a more recent example. Scientific CW is not always right but it's USUALLY right, just like what I said before.

    The luminiferous ether died a very slow death as an explanatory mechanism. Even James Clark Maxwell resorted to it, in part. But even he could see that it really was a stretch, and becoming more and more implausible. Quoting him from Wikipedia.

    Aethers were invented for the planets to swim in, to constitute electric atmospheres and magnetic effluvia, to convey sensations from one part of our bodies to another, and so on, until all space had been filled three or four times over with aethers. … The only aether which has survived is that which was invented by Huygens to explain the propagation of light.

    That Wikipedia article of the lumineferous ether is quite good, as Wikipedia’s articles on science often are.

  284. @Buffalo Joe
    Simply, Not so young and I remember those Sunday Funnies, "Jiggs" (Bringing up Father) and Katzenjammer Kids, Buz Sawyer (super hot wife) and the soap opera Mary Worth.

    I remember my dad (b. 1917) talking about reading The Katzenjammer Kids in the paper after my grandad was done with it.

    Some of those comic strips had a really long life. I was surprised to learn, just now, that Bringing Up Father ran from 1913 to 2000. I’ve never seen The Katzenjammer Kids in a newspaper, but apparently some papers still run the old strips, which makes it the longest running comic strip, 1897 to the present day.

  285. @The Last Real Calvinist
    Speaking of OT but iSteve-y news, there's been a wave of likely hate hoaxing in Portland for fun and profit:

    https://nypost.com/2019/03/30/inside-the-suspicious-rise-of-gay-hate-crimes-in-portland/

    Has any widely publicized gaybashing turned out to be real (or consistent with original reports)? If the main thing you knew about a target was that you did not want anything to do with their blood, why would you punch him? There was a gay priest activist celebrated for embracing self-defense and teaching it to fellow gay victims; read further and the people he was defending himself against were little clutches of street kids, who had been attacking him “for no reason.”

  286. @Trutherator
    Augustin wavered on Creation I hear, but he was too much a thinker, while St. Patrick was busy baptizing the Irish & teaching them literacy, & fighting against inter-island slavery.

    Isaac Newton said that the ability to do science was itself a proof of a rational Creator. And intentional Creation was implied by the solar system.

    So advances that opened up modern science were realized by scientists who believed Genesis One, as written. Even today you don't hear about things like Russ Humpreys predicting the magnetic fields of the outer gas giant planets based on the exact wording of Gen. 1, while the NASA scientists were exponentially off.

    Plenty more, If you are not timid to find out why Creationist scientists trounced Creation deniers in fair debates until they gave up.

    So advances that opened up modern science were realized by scientists who believed Genesis One, as written. Even today you don’t hear about things like Russ Humpreys predicting the magnetic fields of the outer gas giant planets based on the exact wording of Gen. 1,

    That’s because he didn’t. Or, can you explain how he did so?

    ……………while the NASA scientists were exponentially off.

    What do you mean by “exponentially off”. People use the term “exponentially” quite a lot now without, I think, knowing what it means or what they mean by it.

  287. @Senator Brundlefly
    "It’s also interesting that super large creatures of all types – mammals as well – seem only to have been able to evolve many many millions of years ago. Dinosaurs occupied a successful niche, so why didn’t they or something else ever re-evolve to that huge size?"

    Just because something occurred once under a very specific set of circumstances does not mean it will inevitably happen again. Convergent evolution happens but that doesn't mean it will always happen. There are geckos that can comfortably fit on a dime. Doesn't mean mammals will inevitably go that small. Sauropod dinosaurs were able to reach enormous sizes because of their very efficient lung and airsac system (the same lung/airsac system that allow birds to fly to high altitudes), allowing them to be lighter for their size and get oxygen efficiently enough.

    The oxygen concentration in the atmosphere has been much higher in the past as well.

    • Replies: @Senator Brundlefly
    While that is certainly relevant to Carboniferous giant arthropods that have book lungs and tracheae, oddly enough there are some indications that atmospheric O2 content was actually lower in the Mesozoic when dinosaurs were around.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131118081043.htm

  288. @Mr. Anon
    The oxygen concentration in the atmosphere has been much higher in the past as well.

    While that is certainly relevant to Carboniferous giant arthropods that have book lungs and tracheae, oddly enough there are some indications that atmospheric O2 content was actually lower in the Mesozoic when dinosaurs were around.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131118081043.htm

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    While that is certainly relevant to Carboniferous giant arthropods that have book lungs and tracheae, oddly enough there are some indications that atmospheric O2 content was actually lower in the Mesozoic when dinosaurs were around.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131118081043.htm
     

    That's interesting, because the previous concensus seemed to have been that O2 levels were higher than today for most of the last 500 million years or so, including during the Cretacious. Although I think there was an extended dip below current levels in the Triassic, or thereabouts.

    Thanks for posting that link.

  289. @Mr. Anon

    A mass of 2 trillion tons entering the Earth’s atomosphere on a 3o degree angle would impact with a velocity around 50,000 mp/h.
     
    No, an impactor hits with whatever speed it hits at, independent of its mass, and certainly not entirely dependent on it's angle. Where did you get the information you copy-pasted?

    I got my information from an arXiv article from 2014 by two researchers at The National Autonomous University of Mexico. Tell me, Nick, should I not trust these Mexicans?

    Well, perhaps I shouldn't. Here's an older work, but peer-reviewed, and one that's been cited much more:

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JE01743

    Which places the energy of the impactor in the range of 170 - 810 teratons. So the number I gave, and amended with a second look, was high. And the number you reflexively cite without any citation was low.

    “No, an impactor hits with whatever speed it hits at, independent of its mass, and certainly not entirely dependent on it’s angle. Where did you get the information you copy-pasted?”

    Actually, wrong. The density of an object, and the angle that it falls certainly affect it’s speed because air resistance will be different. Saying that this is not the case is like saying that a paper ball would fall as fast as a rock of the same size, or that an object falling through a column of air on a 30 degree angle would not go through a larger volume of air than the the same object falling in a straight line. Nonsense. While the gravitational acceleration of objects falling to Earth is the same at 9.8 meter/second regardless of mass, density and angle are certainly factors in speed. And whether a meteor is coming to Earth in a straight line, or is drawn to Earth from a parallel trajectory also affects it’s speed.

    “I got my information from an arXiv article from 2014 by two researchers at The National Autonomous University of Mexico. Tell me, Nick, should I not trust these Mexicans?
    Well, perhaps I shouldn’t. Here’s an older work, but peer-reviewed, and one that’s been cited much more:
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JE01743
    Which places the energy of the impactor in the range of 170 – 810 teratons. So the number I gave, and amended with a second look, was high. And the number you reflexively cite without any citation was low.”

    What do you mean by no citations? Do you mean pear-reviewed studies by physicists estimating the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor impact? Because I linked directly to a National Geographic article that agrees with the 100 teratons figure; you conversely, posted an estimate from the 1990’s. I don’t like using argumentum ad verecundiam, but methinks National Geographic has more credibility, especially when there is conflicting data between physicists.

    The bottom line is that the most accepted figure for the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor is 100 million megatons of TNT, or 100 teratons.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Actually, wrong. The density of an object, and the angle that it falls certainly affect it’s speed because air resistance will be different. Saying that this is not the case is like saying that a paper ball would fall as fast as a rock of the same size, or that an object falling through a column of air on a 30 degree angle would not go through a larger volume of air than the the same object falling in a straight line. Nonsense. While the gravitational acceleration of objects falling to Earth is the same at 9.8 meter/second regardless of mass, density and angle are certainly factors in speed. And whether a meteor is coming to Earth in a straight line, or is drawn to Earth from a parallel trajectory also affects it’s speed.
     
    You didn't say density, you said mass, and anyway you were just throwing out numbers without even knowing where they came from or how they are used. You clearly have little or no grasp of mechanics. You are just aping things you've seen on the web. Do you mean to say that anything hitting the earth's atmosphere at 30 degrees will have an impact speed of 50,000 mph? Everything will? That's what you said.

    What do you mean by no citations? Do you mean pear-reviewed studies by physicists estimating the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor impact?
     
    Yes.

    Because I linked directly to a National Geographic article that agrees with the 100 teratons figure;
     
    And that isn't one.

    you conversely, posted an estimate from the 1990’s.
     
    A highly cited, peer-reviewed paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Ane one that was used by the authors of the impact calculator that was referred to in the Nat. Geo. website that you yourself linked to.

    I don’t like using argumentum ad verecundiam,
     
    Maybe because you are obviously not good at it.

    ...but methinks National Geographic has more credibility, especially when there is conflicting data between physicists.
     
    Youthinks wrong. National Geographic is not a scientific publication. The JGR is.

    The bottom line is that the most accepted figure for the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor is 100 million megatons of TNT, or 100 teratons.
     
    Most accepted because you saw it in National Geographic? National Geographic is a popular magazine. It's Popular Mechanics with boobs. No, the bottom line is that you just cited the first website you came across and stuck to it like a dull-witted, petulant child. There are other, perhaps better, estimates.

    You should stop trying to act smart, Nick. You're no good at it.

  290. @res

    The ocean floor maps and ages make this very clear. Newer, younger material has been forming along lines that run all over the globe, between all of the continents.
     
    Keep in mind that material is both being brought up and sinking down. See subduction zones: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subduction

    Where do you think the matter to expand the Earth is coming from? Do you think conservation of matter holds within the Earth minus external inputs like meteors?

    That’s the big question with implications beyond geology: If there really is growth, rather than some kind of expansion of existing material, then where would the new matter be coming from? External inputs are far too small, and science requires conservation of matter, so, if observations indicting growth are correct, then by what process and from what source does this come?

    Subduction was hypothesized to explain plate tectonics when nobody noticed that the continents fit together on all sides, including the Pacific, but it is clear that all continents fit together like puzzle pieces on a smaller sphere, and the undersea observations go all the way around those pieces, tracking back in time perfectly.

    I am simply drawing attention to an observation. I don’t claim to know that it is correct. Thanks for reasonably discussing it. I understand that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the claim that new matter is somehow being produced inside planets certainly is extraordinary.

  291. @Senator Brundlefly
    "It’s also interesting that super large creatures of all types – mammals as well – seem only to have been able to evolve many many millions of years ago. Dinosaurs occupied a successful niche, so why didn’t they or something else ever re-evolve to that huge size?"

    Just because something occurred once under a very specific set of circumstances does not mean it will inevitably happen again. Convergent evolution happens but that doesn't mean it will always happen. There are geckos that can comfortably fit on a dime. Doesn't mean mammals will inevitably go that small. Sauropod dinosaurs were able to reach enormous sizes because of their very efficient lung and airsac system (the same lung/airsac system that allow birds to fly to high altitudes), allowing them to be lighter for their size and get oxygen efficiently enough.

    But it didn’t just “occur once under a very specific set of circumstances”. Hundreds of millions of years ago there were many, many, many species and various types of super-large dinosaurs. And that was obviously a winning evolutionary strategy, since dinosaurs ‘ruled the world’ for eons.

    And tens and tens of millions of years ago there were also many, many super large mammals. I remember, for just one example, an article a few years ago about the fossil of some kind of rat like creature found in South America that was the size of a small car. Yet in more recent times – the last million years, say – the evidence dries up for any animals growing to super sizes.

    So it didn’t just happen once as you saw. It apparently used to be common on this planet for reptiles and mammals to grow extremely large.

    You’re right, of course, that just because something has happened before, it’s not inevitable that it will happen again. But if it’s something that has happened very often, than it becomes more surprising when it never happens again, and more in need of explanation. And now I’m wondering now why the conventional wisdom can’t come up with a better answer than to hand wave the phenomenom away.

    • Replies: @Senator Brundlefly
    Yes, there were many large dinosaurs. But when people talk about the physical impossibility of large dinosaurs, they are generally talking about sauropods. Yes animals have routinely grown large in history (though not as large as sauropods). The reason not as many large mammals are around as there used to be is because humans routinely killed most of them in prehistory.
  292. @Nick Diaz
    "No, an impactor hits with whatever speed it hits at, independent of its mass, and certainly not entirely dependent on it’s angle. Where did you get the information you copy-pasted?"

    Actually, wrong. The density of an object, and the angle that it falls certainly affect it's speed because air resistance will be different. Saying that this is not the case is like saying that a paper ball would fall as fast as a rock of the same size, or that an object falling through a column of air on a 30 degree angle would not go through a larger volume of air than the the same object falling in a straight line. Nonsense. While the gravitational acceleration of objects falling to Earth is the same at 9.8 meter/second regardless of mass, density and angle are certainly factors in speed. And whether a meteor is coming to Earth in a straight line, or is drawn to Earth from a parallel trajectory also affects it's speed.

    "I got my information from an arXiv article from 2014 by two researchers at The National Autonomous University of Mexico. Tell me, Nick, should I not trust these Mexicans?
    Well, perhaps I shouldn’t. Here’s an older work, but peer-reviewed, and one that’s been cited much more:
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JE01743
    Which places the energy of the impactor in the range of 170 – 810 teratons. So the number I gave, and amended with a second look, was high. And the number you reflexively cite without any citation was low."

    What do you mean by no citations? Do you mean pear-reviewed studies by physicists estimating the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor impact? Because I linked directly to a National Geographic article that agrees with the 100 teratons figure; you conversely, posted an estimate from the 1990's. I don't like using argumentum ad verecundiam, but methinks National Geographic has more credibility, especially when there is conflicting data between physicists.

    The bottom line is that the most accepted figure for the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor is 100 million megatons of TNT, or 100 teratons.

    Actually, wrong. The density of an object, and the angle that it falls certainly affect it’s speed because air resistance will be different. Saying that this is not the case is like saying that a paper ball would fall as fast as a rock of the same size, or that an object falling through a column of air on a 30 degree angle would not go through a larger volume of air than the the same object falling in a straight line. Nonsense. While the gravitational acceleration of objects falling to Earth is the same at 9.8 meter/second regardless of mass, density and angle are certainly factors in speed. And whether a meteor is coming to Earth in a straight line, or is drawn to Earth from a parallel trajectory also affects it’s speed.

    You didn’t say density, you said mass, and anyway you were just throwing out numbers without even knowing where they came from or how they are used. You clearly have little or no grasp of mechanics. You are just aping things you’ve seen on the web. Do you mean to say that anything hitting the earth’s atmosphere at 30 degrees will have an impact speed of 50,000 mph? Everything will? That’s what you said.

    What do you mean by no citations? Do you mean pear-reviewed studies by physicists estimating the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor impact?

    Yes.

    Because I linked directly to a National Geographic article that agrees with the 100 teratons figure;

    And that isn’t one.

    you conversely, posted an estimate from the 1990’s.

    A highly cited, peer-reviewed paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Ane one that was used by the authors of the impact calculator that was referred to in the Nat. Geo. website that you yourself linked to.

    I don’t like using argumentum ad verecundiam,

    Maybe because you are obviously not good at it.

    …but methinks National Geographic has more credibility, especially when there is conflicting data between physicists.

    Youthinks wrong. National Geographic is not a scientific publication. The JGR is.

    The bottom line is that the most accepted figure for the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor is 100 million megatons of TNT, or 100 teratons.

    Most accepted because you saw it in National Geographic? National Geographic is a popular magazine. It’s Popular Mechanics with boobs. No, the bottom line is that you just cited the first website you came across and stuck to it like a dull-witted, petulant child. There are other, perhaps better, estimates.

    You should stop trying to act smart, Nick. You’re no good at it.

    • Replies: @Nick Diaz
    "You didn’t say density, you said mass, and anyway you were just throwing out numbers without even knowing where they came from or how they are used. You clearly have little or no grasp of mechanics. You are just aping things you’ve seen on the web."

    I am not throwing around numbers, idiot. The figure of 100 teratons is the most accepted figure for the Chickxulub impact. It is the figure cited in pretty much everywhere. The BBC, National Geographic, even professional astgrphysicists cite that figure. I don't need to use peer-reviewed scientific papers because there are many such papers that consistently contradict each other. so it makes more sense to use figures from respectable sources like the BBC and NG because that represents the most respectable consensus. I don't have an understand of mechanics? This coming from the guy who said that a meteor falls to the Earth at whatever speed it will, regardless of anything else. You clearly are scientifically illiterate.

    "Do you mean to say that anything hitting the earth’s atmosphere at 30 degrees will have an impact speed of 50,000 mph?"

    I never made such claim. Nice straw man. You conversely, argued that the angle of entry has very little do with the speed that a meteor will have hitting the Earth. You are a dumbass.

    "Yes."

    Right. And what peer-reviewed study should I post? The ones that indicate a yield of 10 teratons or the ones that indicate a yield up to a petaton? Because you can find both. The figure of 100 teratons is the the most accepted figure considering the density of the meteor, the angle of entry, the size and shape of the crater that it left and the speed that is was travelling through space. In this case, the most likely figure is 100 teratons.

    "And that isn’t one"

    Yes, it is. It is stated verbatim in the page I posted.

    "Maybe because you are obviously not good at it."

    You are not good at it. Not me. The reason why I don't like using argumentum ad verecundiam is because it is a logical fallacy: the degree of authority of someone making a claim is irrelevant in determining whether a claim is tyue or false; however, in this case, I believe that National Geographics and the BBC have more credibility because their figure represents a consensus. They have reputations to uphold, and when there isn't a clear figure for someting, they go with the most accepted consensus.

    "Most accepted because you saw it in National Geographic? National Geographic is a popular magazine. It’s Popular Mechanics with boobs. No, the bottom line is that you just cited the first website you came across and stuck to it like a dull-witted, petulant child. There are other, perhaps better, estimates."

    You are right. Everything published in scientific publications is correct. Just like back in the 1950's there were plenty of scientific papers published stating that thalidomide was perfectly safe. And, of course, scientific papers never contradict each other. If you want, I can post multiple scientific papers contradicting each other on the same topic. The one 20 year-old paper you posted has more credibility than the figure most cited by astrophysicists and geologists for the chicxulub meteor impact. The figure of 100 teratons is mentioned more than any other for no reason.

    "You should stop trying to act smart, Nick. You’re no good at it."

    F you, kid. I don't think that you are smart at all. You are a pretty mediocre intellect that greatly overestimates yourself. I don't give a shit about you and your opinions of me. Because, in order for me to care, I would have to respect you, and I don't. Literally 90% of your posts is you bickering with people. To be perfectly honest with you, I don't even rate you as one of the toughest detractors and antagonists I have here. I rate "Corvinus" , "Desiderius", "Lot" and "Wilkey" as fairly intleligent posters. You are not one of the intleligent posters on the opposition. You are basically a conservative blowhard that is the the best example I can think of a hateful deplorable: sexist, racist conservative scumbag. You almost never make any arguments. You just shoot generic one-liners and then claim victory by claiming that you smarter than whoever you are arguing with. Yawn kid...I don't think you are smart either. I have nothing but contempt for you.
  293. @Senator Brundlefly
    While that is certainly relevant to Carboniferous giant arthropods that have book lungs and tracheae, oddly enough there are some indications that atmospheric O2 content was actually lower in the Mesozoic when dinosaurs were around.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131118081043.htm

    While that is certainly relevant to Carboniferous giant arthropods that have book lungs and tracheae, oddly enough there are some indications that atmospheric O2 content was actually lower in the Mesozoic when dinosaurs were around.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131118081043.htm

    That’s interesting, because the previous concensus seemed to have been that O2 levels were higher than today for most of the last 500 million years or so, including during the Cretacious. Although I think there was an extended dip below current levels in the Triassic, or thereabouts.

    Thanks for posting that link.

  294. @butterscotch schnapps
    But it didn't just "occur once under a very specific set of circumstances". Hundreds of millions of years ago there were many, many, many species and various types of super-large dinosaurs. And that was obviously a winning evolutionary strategy, since dinosaurs 'ruled the world' for eons.

    And tens and tens of millions of years ago there were also many, many super large mammals. I remember, for just one example, an article a few years ago about the fossil of some kind of rat like creature found in South America that was the size of a small car. Yet in more recent times - the last million years, say - the evidence dries up for any animals growing to super sizes.

    So it didn't just happen once as you saw. It apparently used to be common on this planet for reptiles and mammals to grow extremely large.

    You're right, of course, that just because something has happened before, it's not inevitable that it will happen again. But if it's something that has happened very often, than it becomes more surprising when it never happens again, and more in need of explanation. And now I'm wondering now why the conventional wisdom can't come up with a better answer than to hand wave the phenomenom away.

    Yes, there were many large dinosaurs. But when people talk about the physical impossibility of large dinosaurs, they are generally talking about sauropods. Yes animals have routinely grown large in history (though not as large as sauropods). The reason not as many large mammals are around as there used to be is because humans routinely killed most of them in prehistory.

  295. Anonymous[268] • Disclaimer says:
    @ThreeCranes
    The sixty four thousand dollar question.

    Because the currency exchange rate mechanism is broken. In the standard model, the U.S. as a nation that runs persistent trade deficits, should be forced to adjust the value of its currency relative to its trading partners. That and pay a high rate of interest on its Treasury bonds. China, of course, doesn't want to lose the U.S. as an export market so they link their currency to ours.

    Since oil is denominated in dollars and since the use of oil is expanding even into third world countries, demand for dollars is persistent. As long as our military can impose our will on the world, we can run deficits. When the music stops then it's everyone scrambling for a chair. And the big guns start popping.

    Why just $64,000?

  296. @Mr. Anon

    Actually, wrong. The density of an object, and the angle that it falls certainly affect it’s speed because air resistance will be different. Saying that this is not the case is like saying that a paper ball would fall as fast as a rock of the same size, or that an object falling through a column of air on a 30 degree angle would not go through a larger volume of air than the the same object falling in a straight line. Nonsense. While the gravitational acceleration of objects falling to Earth is the same at 9.8 meter/second regardless of mass, density and angle are certainly factors in speed. And whether a meteor is coming to Earth in a straight line, or is drawn to Earth from a parallel trajectory also affects it’s speed.
     
    You didn't say density, you said mass, and anyway you were just throwing out numbers without even knowing where they came from or how they are used. You clearly have little or no grasp of mechanics. You are just aping things you've seen on the web. Do you mean to say that anything hitting the earth's atmosphere at 30 degrees will have an impact speed of 50,000 mph? Everything will? That's what you said.

    What do you mean by no citations? Do you mean pear-reviewed studies by physicists estimating the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor impact?
     
    Yes.

    Because I linked directly to a National Geographic article that agrees with the 100 teratons figure;
     
    And that isn't one.

    you conversely, posted an estimate from the 1990’s.
     
    A highly cited, peer-reviewed paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Ane one that was used by the authors of the impact calculator that was referred to in the Nat. Geo. website that you yourself linked to.

    I don’t like using argumentum ad verecundiam,
     
    Maybe because you are obviously not good at it.

    ...but methinks National Geographic has more credibility, especially when there is conflicting data between physicists.
     
    Youthinks wrong. National Geographic is not a scientific publication. The JGR is.

    The bottom line is that the most accepted figure for the kinetic yield of the Chicxulub meteor is 100 million megatons of TNT, or 100 teratons.
     
    Most accepted because you saw it in National Geographic? National Geographic is a popular magazine. It's Popular Mechanics with boobs. No, the bottom line is that you just cited the first website you came across and stuck to it like a dull-witted, petulant child. There are other, perhaps better, estimates.

    You should stop trying to act smart, Nick. You're no good at it.

    “You didn’t say density, you said mass, and anyway you were just throwing out numbers without even knowing where they came from or how they are used. You clearly have little or no grasp of mechanics. You are just aping things you’ve seen on the web.”

    I am not throwing around numbers, idiot. The figure of 100 teratons is the most accepted figure for the Chickxulub impact. It is the figure cited in pretty much everywhere. The BBC, National Geographic, even professional astgrphysicists cite that figure. I don’t need to use peer-reviewed scientific papers because there are many such papers that consistently contradict each other. so it makes more sense to use figures from respectable sources like the BBC and NG because that represents the most respectable consensus. I don’t have an understand of mechanics? This coming from the guy who said that a meteor falls to the Earth at whatever speed it will, regardless of anything else. You clearly are scientifically illiterate.

    “Do you mean to say that anything hitting the earth’s atmosphere at 30 degrees will have an impact speed of 50,000 mph?”

    I never made such claim. Nice straw man. You conversely, argued that the angle of entry has very little do with the speed that a meteor will have hitting the Earth. You are a dumbass.

    “Yes.”

    Right. And what peer-reviewed study should I post? The ones that indicate a yield of 10 teratons or the ones that indicate a yield up to a petaton? Because you can find both. The figure of 100 teratons is the the most accepted figure considering the density of the meteor, the angle of entry, the size and shape of the crater that it left and the speed that is was travelling through space. In this case, the most likely figure is 100 teratons.

    “And that isn’t one”

    Yes, it is. It is stated verbatim in the page I posted.

    “Maybe because you are obviously not good at it.”

    You are not good at it. Not me. The reason why I don’t like using argumentum ad verecundiam is because it is a logical fallacy: the degree of authority of someone making a claim is irrelevant in determining whether a claim is tyue or false; however, in this case, I believe that National Geographics and the BBC have more credibility because their figure represents a consensus. They have reputations to uphold, and when there isn’t a clear figure for someting, they go with the most accepted consensus.

    “Most accepted because you saw it in National Geographic? National Geographic is a popular magazine. It’s Popular Mechanics with boobs. No, the bottom line is that you just cited the first website you came across and stuck to it like a dull-witted, petulant child. There are other, perhaps better, estimates.”

    You are right. Everything published in scientific publications is correct. Just like back in the 1950’s there were plenty of scientific papers published stating that thalidomide was perfectly safe. And, of course, scientific papers never contradict each other. If you want, I can post multiple scientific papers contradicting each other on the same topic. The one 20 year-old paper you posted has more credibility than the figure most cited by astrophysicists and geologists for the chicxulub meteor impact. The figure of 100 teratons is mentioned more than any other for no reason.

    “You should stop trying to act smart, Nick. You’re no good at it.”

    F you, kid. I don’t think that you are smart at all. You are a pretty mediocre intellect that greatly overestimates yourself. I don’t give a shit about you and your opinions of me. Because, in order for me to care, I would have to respect you, and I don’t. Literally 90% of your posts is you bickering with people. To be perfectly honest with you, I don’t even rate you as one of the toughest detractors and antagonists I have here. I rate “Corvinus” , “Desiderius”, “Lot” and “Wilkey” as fairly intleligent posters. You are not one of the intleligent posters on the opposition. You are basically a conservative blowhard that is the the best example I can think of a hateful deplorable: sexist, racist conservative scumbag. You almost never make any arguments. You just shoot generic one-liners and then claim victory by claiming that you smarter than whoever you are arguing with. Yawn kid…I don’t think you are smart either. I have nothing but contempt for you.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    I am not throwing around numbers, idiot.
     
    Yes, you are.

    The figure of 100 teratons is the most accepted figure for the Chickxulub impact. It is the figure cited in pretty much everywhere. The BBC, National Geographic, even professional astgrphysicists cite that figure. I don’t need to use peer-reviewed scientific papers because there are many such papers that consistently contradict each other.
     
    Yeah, science is hard.

    so it makes more sense to use figures from respectable sources like the BBC and NG because that represents the most respectable consensus.
     
    Yeah, why bother with actual scientific papers, when you can quote journalists.

    I don’t have an understand of mechanics?
     
    Evidently not.

    This coming from the guy who said that a meteor falls to the Earth at whatever speed it will, regardless of anything else. You clearly are scientifically illiterate.
     
    No, not regardless of anything else. But the velocity doesn't depend on it's mass. At least, not the way you seem to think.

    I never made such claim. Nice straw man. You conversely, argued that the angle of entry has very little do with the speed that a meteor will have hitting the Earth. You are a dumbass.
     
    No, you did. And, no, I didn't. I understand you can't read straight - you're so angry - it's even obvious from all the typos you're making. Was there actual spittle shooting out of your mouth when you typed this?

    Right. And what peer-reviewed study should I post? The ones that indicate a yield of 10 teratons or the ones that indicate a yield up to a petaton? Because you can find both. The figure of 100 teratons is the the most accepted figure considering the density of the meteor, the angle of entry, the size and shape of the crater that it left and the speed that is was travelling through space. In this case, the most likely figure is 100 teratons.
     
    No, it isn't.

    Yes, it is. It is stated verbatim in the page I posted.
     
    You think National Geographic is peer reviewed? Are you that stupid? Never mind. I already know the answer to that.

    You are not good at it. Not me. The reason why I don’t like using argumentum ad verecundiam is because it is a logical fallacy: the degree of authority of someone making a claim is irrelevant in determining whether a claim is tyue or false; however, in this case, I believe that National Geographics and the BBC have more credibility because their figure represents a consensus. They have reputations to uphold, and when there isn’t a clear figure for someting, they go with the most accepted consensus.
     
    They're journalists. They are everybit as stupid as you are.

    You are right. Everything published in scientific publications is correct. Just like back in the 1950’s there were plenty of scientific papers published stating that thalidomide was perfectly safe. And, of course, scientific papers never contradict each other. If you want, I can post multiple scientific papers contradicting each other on the same topic. The one 20 year-old paper you posted has more credibility than the figure most cited by astrophysicists and geologists for the chicxulub meteor impact. The figure of 100 teratons is mentioned more than any other for no reason.
     
    The paper I cited was used by the authors of the impact calculator that the Nat Geo website itself cited, you dips**t.

    You really are stupid, pendejo. Bovinely stupid. Everytime you open your mouth you prove it a little more. You're just a typical know-nothing liberal douchebag. Your opinions are uninteresting.
     

    , @Mr. Anon

    Literally 90% of your posts is you bickering with people.
     
    That's funny. Your every post is nothing but bickering and hostility.

    To be perfectly honest with you, I don’t even rate you as one of the toughest detractors and antagonists I have here. I rate “Corvinus” , “Desiderius”, “Lot” and “Wilkey” as fairly intleligent posters.
     
    Well they are certainly more intelligent than you, except for Corvinus. You are a rather stupid blowhard. I don't think anyone here thinks of you as anything other than a pathetic nitwit. But that's only becuase you are one. So much projection in one post.

    Go shout at the wind, moron. No actual person gives a f**k what you think.
  297. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Rodolfo
    The De Palma family is very versatile. Years ago there was a big conspiracy theory site on physics, things like anti-gravity and time travel, written by a guy named Bruce De Palma, also a relative of the filmmaker.

    Yes, I knew him and corresponded with him years ago when building tube amplifiers:

    https://depalma.pairsite.com/Analog/analog.html

    1) Introduction

    This author’s experience with analog audio circuit design extends over a period of 50 years — the era of the vacuum tube, long playing records, FM radio, tape recording, and transistors. It also includes the digital era where computers became involved with audio. Since the subject of this paper is analog audio, digital audio signal processing is not discussed.

    2) Historical Background

    In his youth, the author was fortunate in growing up and being educated in a geographical region, east coast U.S.A., Philadelphia, New York, Boston, M.I.T. – Harvard; during a time extending from the 1940’s to the late 70’s. In 1954, I met David Hafler and Irving Fried, who lived near my family home in Philadelphia. Through their association and friendship I met a number of the east coast audio figures of the time. At that time David Hafler and Herb Keros were manufacturing ACROSOUND transformers for the Williamson amplifier. Later on, Hafler went on to form Dyna Company, manufacturing audio output transformers, amplifier and pre-amplifier kits, Dynakits.

    As Chief Engineer in the early vacuum tube days with Dynaco, I met and spoke with other audio designers, i.e. Stuart Hegeman, Ben Drisko, Frank McIntosh, and Henry Kloss. Out of these meetings a philosophy of design was emerging which encompassed the whole audio reproduction process. As time went on I became acquainted with Emory Cook, Rudy Bozak, Paul Weathers, Edgar Vilchur, Arthur Janszen, and Donald Chave (LOWTHER, U.K.).

    Although my primary interest developed in the basic physical sciences, my interest in music and sound reproduction has persisted to this day. Over a period of decades, experience and introspection have resulted in the evolution of certain precepts which comprise the Method of DePalma in analog audio circuit design. The philosophy and working out of these ideas are exemplified in the three power amplifier designs presented here.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Are the DePalmas a southern/Sicilian Italian family (e.g., Martin Scorsese) or a northern Italian family (e.g., the various Coppolas)?
  298. @Anonymous
    Yes, I knew him and corresponded with him years ago when building tube amplifiers:

    https://depalma.pairsite.com/Analog/analog.html

    1) Introduction



    This author's experience with analog audio circuit design extends over a period of 50 years -- the era of the vacuum tube, long playing records, FM radio, tape recording, and transistors. It also includes the digital era where computers became involved with audio. Since the subject of this paper is analog audio, digital audio signal processing is not discussed.

    2) Historical Background



    In his youth, the author was fortunate in growing up and being educated in a geographical region, east coast U.S.A., Philadelphia, New York, Boston, M.I.T. - Harvard; during a time extending from the 1940's to the late 70's. In 1954, I met David Hafler and Irving Fried, who lived near my family home in Philadelphia. Through their association and friendship I met a number of the east coast audio figures of the time. At that time David Hafler and Herb Keros were manufacturing ACROSOUND transformers for the Williamson amplifier. Later on, Hafler went on to form Dyna Company, manufacturing audio output transformers, amplifier and pre-amplifier kits, Dynakits.

    As Chief Enginee