More from the New York Times’ auto-generator of Amazing Chetty Facts about income mobility:
Manhattan is extremely bad for children in families in the top 1%. It is among the worst counties in the U.S.
Which do you think is more likely?
– That the Masters of the Universe are collective fools about their scions’ financial fates?
– Or that Professor Raj Chetty of Harvard doesn’t fully grasp how regression toward the mean affects his giant database?
It’s a statistical inevitability that, on average, the children of Manhattan’s One Percent — the If I Can Make It There, I Can Make It Anywhere elite — are going to regress somewhat toward a lower mean. Some of them are into organic farming in Vermont, some are ski bums in Boulder, some are writing screenplays in Silver Lake. Heck, some of them are corporate lawyers in Chicago or doctors in Denver or bond traders in New York.
They’re just not going to be quite as high income on average, relatively speaking, as the single richest group in Chetty’s database: the top 1% earners in Manhattan. It doesn’t mean these gilded youths didn’t get a lot of privileges, it’s just how the world has to work, as Francis Galton pointed out.
Conversely, while the top of the One Percent (nationally speaking) in Manhattan goes more into the stratosphere than the One Percent anywhere else, the bottom of the national one percent is probably easier to get into in Manhattan than anywhere else because salaries are higher there than elsewhere because the cost of living is higher.