Moneyball for Chicago Homicide Stats Fans
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Some guys follow baseball statistics, others keep an eye on the stock market, and then there are the people at HeyJackass.com, who are totally into Chicago homicide/shooting statistics.
I see that in my wife’s old neighborhood of Austin on the west side (population 99,000) , a city-leading 532 people have been shot this year, 89 of them fatally. In contrast, in Lincoln Park on the north lakefront (population 66,000), nobody has been shot in all of 2016.
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I did a road trip this summer. Chicago was the last city I visited on my way back out west.
I stayed @ the HI Chicago hostel & I had a fun time there.
There was this Jewish guy who was some kind of tourism official with the city. He was telling me stories about Mayor Daley and the mob museum. He told me about his work relationship with Obama – who he said used to work two doors down from him in the same building.
My family kept calling me, scared shitless i was going to get shot. At 1st I had these same fears. Then I started seeing women and Latino families walking around, at night.
The Jewish dude gave me 1 of those tourist maps of the city and drew a circle around a certain part of the west side & another circle around a part of the Southside.
I’ll never forget his quote “stay away from these two places & you’ll be just do fine.”
…..and he was right. Walked to the lakefront & the famousfountaon there.
Women were there & families w young kids. My stomach fell thru my bowels with relief. I was expecting New Orleans, instead I got hipster Seattle.
Whites everywhere. Guess the thugs really are isolated in one or two areas.
Look at the bright side
Lincoln Park is where the St Valentine’s Day massacre took place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Valentine%27s_Day_Massacre
Improvement!
That site has been bouncing around in the comments section for a while.
It is sad to see that it is becoming more relevant…
https://www.unz.com/isteve/chicago-stays-vibrant/#comment-1639738
It’s not over yet if one wants to count Monday as part of the Christmas weekend. About 54 shot with 11 being fatal, so far. Good way to celebrate Christmas.
US servicemen killed in Iraq, from March 2003 to December 2011: 4399.
People shot and killed in Chicago from 2003 to 2011: 4418
(if you add in female servicepersons from the period in Iraq, the total slightly edges out Chicago’s run)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago
Well, black gun violence, anyway. Chicago voters go big time for federal gun control laws, no doubt, but:
Like I’ve been saying, leftists are light on black gun violence in their jurisdictions, but want to crack down on gun rights where there isn’t a problem.
The feds can’t even make Chicago safer for blacks than they could make Iraq for our servicemen, but we’re out there fighting foreign wars anyway.
The number of police shootings went from about 50 a year to 25 a year after BLM (about half fatal). So to stop about a dozen blacks from being shot dead by the police, about 200 additional were murdered per year due to depolicing.
Ever notice how over the last 60-odd years of exporting American values, we’ve never managed to export the rights we enjoy here to, say, speak our minds, or bear arms to defend ourselves? The federal gov’t does far more to export leftist homosexual agenda and feminism, than they do to export actual American values and freedoms.
I stayed @ the HI Chicago hostel & I had a fun time there.
There was this Jewish guy who was some kind of tourism official with the city. He was telling me stories about Mayor Daley and the mob museum. He told me about his work relationship with Obama - who he said used to work two doors down from him in the same building.
My family kept calling me, scared shitless i was going to get shot. At 1st I had these same fears. Then I started seeing women and Latino families walking around, at night.
The Jewish dude gave me 1 of those tourist maps of the city and drew a circle around a certain part of the west side & another circle around a part of the Southside.
I'll never forget his quote "stay away from these two places & you'll be just do fine."
.....and he was right. Walked to the lakefront & the famousfountaon there.
Women were there & families w young kids. My stomach fell thru my bowels with relief. I was expecting New Orleans, instead I got hipster Seattle.
Whites everywhere. Guess the thugs really are isolated in one or two areas.Replies: @Flip, @Mike Zwick, @MBlanc46
The local joke is that Chicago is San Francisco attached to Detroit.
I am old enout to remember twenty years ago with the total was 700 dead. No one cared. In those days the media would never criticize Mayor Richard Michael Daley and the city council. They knew their place.
No shootings in Lincoln Park, but there have been armed hold ups in Lincoln Park, Lakeview, and Wicker Park, so there is some spill over. Hopefully Rahm knows how to keep the lid on.
If we are talking Moneyball — Then Homicides are the Home Runs. I’ve developed a somewhat morbid obsession of flipping through the month’s homicides. Both the Tribune and Sun Times have lists. With obits and pictures. DNA Info has a nice monthly list. https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/2016-chicago-murders
The Sun Times has a special section. http://homicides.suntimes.com
Subtitle: Homicide Watch Chicago | Mark every death. Remember every victim
As odd as it might sound, There was a tendency to toss all gang/ghetto homicides into a single summary story of the days crime.
The Tribune has a nice layout. http://crime.chicagotribune.com/chicago/homicides
It includes a map which displays the not unexpected distribution of murders.
The number of white homicides is remarkably low. Maybe 35 for the year. With the local interest, its easy to eliminate the Hispanics and errors. And out of that 35, a few were hit by stray bullets and a few were living a ‘criminal lifestyle’ and a few domestics or similar.
People like to talk about neighborhoods exclusively as the driving force, but a surprising number of homicides in better areas are gang members shooting each other outside their home turf.
Another perspective is given in a blog called Second City Cop. http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com
In summary — homicide is very concentrated. And not just by race, but within the black community. On the other hand, its just plain bad. And there is the danger of contagion.
That's because of residential racial segregation. There are no Whites residing in the war zone zip codes of Chicago. That is why the Black underclass hates residential racial segregation so much and are so pro-Section 8 Housing. Their mentality is why should they be the only demographic group in America to suffer a 3rd World level murder rate. The Black underclass's mentality is let's spread this murderous misery to White people as well. Misery loves company. Ken and Barbie need to experience up close what a driveby shooting is like.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/24/us/armed-with-data-chicago-police-try-to-predict-who-may-shoot-or-be-shot.html?_r=0
The cops also play Moneyball.
Eddie Johnson has a ‘Strategic Subject List’
An observation is that a lot of the victims aren’t as young as it would seem. There are a lot more victims in their mid 20’s then 18 or 19 year olds.
There is some weird logic around the SSL that it doesn’t explicitly use race as a variable. And hence is non racist. Its non public algorithm does include gang membership (a pretty good proxy), criminal record, and being a prior shooting victim (I’m sure a very powerful predictor).
Johnson’s beef is that people on the list would still be in prison under more of a ‘law and order’ regime. However, we are in a cycle where prison slots are essentially rationed. BLM victim Freddy Gray wouldn’t make it a week in a suburban jurisdiction. Yet a guy with multiple felony arrests (although not very violent) is running around.
We are in a cycle from the days of Clinton and Super Predators to a very negative reaction to mandatory minimums and the like. And now, I think back. Residents in the prime neighborhoods — Austin and Englewood — are upset and conflicted. They are upset with the level of disorder and more involved than it appears. But more rigorous law enforcement puts their nephews and cousins and dads in prison. And also, people who can afford to leave are voting with their feet.
One final comment. For the most part, there is no reason for someone in a suburb (me) or the better neighborhoods to ever go to the South Side. At least some of the really dangerous neighborhoods have a really odd, abandoned like look. I”m only talking about the larger roads — where one would normally see a lot of commercial activity. I’ve never driven down a residential street — some of them are very suspicious of unrecognized vehicles. I think it is more a matter of circling a block … like the second time you are seen … it gets someone’s attention. By the same token, I get eyeballed by the ubiquitous cops in a suburb on the lake like Winnetka.
Their own numbers make no sense. 70% of the 3500+ people shot in Chicago this year were on a list of 1400 people? 80% of those arrested in connection with the shootings were on the list too. I’m guessing that’s 250% of the people on the list but I’m not sure.
Since there are over 5 shootings per homicide, I wonder how many times the typical homicide victim has been shot prior to being killed.
However, it seems like the 1400 isn't the list.The 1400 is a subset of the highest ranking members of the list. The algorithm ranks people from 1 to 500 regarding likelihood to be involved in a shooting.
http://directives.chicagopolice.org/directives/data/a7a57b85-155e9f4b-50c15-5e9f-7742e3ac8b0ab2d3.htmli
I can only speculate, but since it is a ranking, there must start with a large number of people and periodically rerank them. The stated policy is to have a custom intervention with the highest ranking, where they are notified that they are on the 'most likely' list to end up dead. And then be given some sort of social services intervention -- like a job or drug rehab or whatever.
If someone is shot and their score is 350, are they 'on the list' per Johnson? The CPD has 12,000 employees, so if it were really just 1,400 people -- then assign 3 cops per SSL subject. Work down the 1,400, etc.
Rand did a fairly negative study on a previous version of Chicago's system. But if they can isolate the 'excess' homicides to such a small number of individuals -- it has to be quite accurate.
There are other views on this.
1. It's simply a list of 'The Usual Suspects'. Which police have always had and used.
2. 'The Usual Suspects' is prejudicial and either illegal or subject to abuse which can be used in civil rights and personal injury suits. Therefore, it is primarily an attempt to justify a list and/or police processes that have highly disparate impacts on minorities.
3. The list is predictive BECAUSE the cops use it to find leads in shooting cases.
4. With the low clearance rates, how can we know that the perps are on the list? The cases that are cleared are simply the Usual Suspects.
I can already predict that the two worst neighborhoods, Englewood and Austin, will each have about 10% of the 2017 homicides apiece. Toss in a few more conditions -- recent arrest, prior gunshot victim, gang member -- and ages 18-35 --- and isn't that about all that having a high score on the list means?
Whatever -- Eddie Johnson throwing around numbers that fail any test of common sense.
??? Obviously, once the tragic dirt has created a murderer, over a period of months or years, the magic dirt will have to take a similar amount of time to fix him!
K so that’s pretty interesting. Locking up 1400 people would drop the murder rate to 20% of previous? Maaaaaan.
Heyjackass.com is a fantastic site… one that often challenges both the press and the official police counts of crime… after all what you might call a murder, Chicago might call a “death investigation.”
And for those of you who don’t know about it, I also recommend secondcitycop.blogspot.com. Run by a Chicago cop, it’s got plenty of talk of districting and internal police business, but also some dead-on blistering commentary about crime in Chicago.
Sounds like a feature.
They say in Detroit: “Things may be bad in Detroit, but at least or airfields are safe.” Remember Miegs field!
I am old enout to remember twenty years ago with the total was 700 dead. No one cared. In those days the media would never criticize Mayor Richard Michael Daley and the city council. They knew their place.
Disney owns the Star Wars franchise while Chicago owns the inner city homicide franchise.
David. I missed that obvious inconsistency. I initially thought he was talking about fatal shootings — the numbers barely work. Especially if people are involved in multiple incidents.
Since there are over 5 shootings per homicide, I wonder how many times the typical homicide victim has been shot prior to being killed.
However, it seems like the 1400 isn’t the list.
The 1400 is a subset of the highest ranking members of the list. The algorithm ranks people from 1 to 500 regarding likelihood to be involved in a shooting.
http://directives.chicagopolice.org/directives/data/a7a57b85-155e9f4b-50c15-5e9f-7742e3ac8b0ab2d3.htmli
I can only speculate, but since it is a ranking, there must start with a large number of people and periodically rerank them. The stated policy is to have a custom intervention with the highest ranking, where they are notified that they are on the ‘most likely’ list to end up dead. And then be given some sort of social services intervention — like a job or drug rehab or whatever.
If someone is shot and their score is 350, are they ‘on the list’ per Johnson? The CPD has 12,000 employees, so if it were really just 1,400 people — then assign 3 cops per SSL subject. Work down the 1,400, etc.
Rand did a fairly negative study on a previous version of Chicago’s system. But if they can isolate the ‘excess’ homicides to such a small number of individuals — it has to be quite accurate.
There are other views on this.
1. It’s simply a list of ‘The Usual Suspects’. Which police have always had and used.
2. ‘The Usual Suspects’ is prejudicial and either illegal or subject to abuse which can be used in civil rights and personal injury suits. Therefore, it is primarily an attempt to justify a list and/or police processes that have highly disparate impacts on minorities.
3. The list is predictive BECAUSE the cops use it to find leads in shooting cases.
4. With the low clearance rates, how can we know that the perps are on the list? The cases that are cleared are simply the Usual Suspects.
I can already predict that the two worst neighborhoods, Englewood and Austin, will each have about 10% of the 2017 homicides apiece. Toss in a few more conditions — recent arrest, prior gunshot victim, gang member — and ages 18-35 — and isn’t that about all that having a high score on the list means?
Whatever — Eddie Johnson throwing around numbers that fail any test of common sense.
Funny that the ‘black lives matter’ brigade keep very quiet about this particular and obvious glaring racial disparity in homicide instances.
– Even those intellectual pretzel specialists just can’t seem to be able to figure out a way of blaming this particular local little inequality on white people. Which is remarkable. Stumping lefty liars – that is managing to checkmate any possible convoluted lie scenario in which whites are painted as villains responsible for black pathology is a very very rare occurence – no matter how convoluted, twisted, tortured, outlandish, outrageous, improbable, ridiculous, absurd, impossible, illogical, downright insane etc etc, there is somehow, a lie scenario which the lefties manage to concoct – and stick with – which blames whites.
Here, remarkably, even this seems impossible. You’ve just witnessed a miracle, folks.
There’s a downside? Upsell that feature to me any old day of the week.
I stayed @ the HI Chicago hostel & I had a fun time there.
There was this Jewish guy who was some kind of tourism official with the city. He was telling me stories about Mayor Daley and the mob museum. He told me about his work relationship with Obama - who he said used to work two doors down from him in the same building.
My family kept calling me, scared shitless i was going to get shot. At 1st I had these same fears. Then I started seeing women and Latino families walking around, at night.
The Jewish dude gave me 1 of those tourist maps of the city and drew a circle around a certain part of the west side & another circle around a part of the Southside.
I'll never forget his quote "stay away from these two places & you'll be just do fine."
.....and he was right. Walked to the lakefront & the famousfountaon there.
Women were there & families w young kids. My stomach fell thru my bowels with relief. I was expecting New Orleans, instead I got hipster Seattle.
Whites everywhere. Guess the thugs really are isolated in one or two areas.Replies: @Flip, @Mike Zwick, @MBlanc46
You would be shocked by how small of an area much of the shooting is taking place in.
A couple of things I noticed from the HeyJackass site: Not surprisingly, head shots had the highest rate of fatality (but kind of surprising that shot placement data is available to the public.) Anyway, this would suggest that a significant number of the killings were more in the vein of close up assassinations as opposed to shoot outs at a distance or drive by shootings (inner city blacks aren’t known for marksmanship.) But it would be interesting to know how many of the incidents were shoot outs where both sides had guns a blazin’. I’m guessing most were retaliation assassinations.
Also, I’m guessing that murder in Chicago is a perennial problem because of the incredibly large number of cases that go unsolved. 70 to 80%, by the looks of it. Of course, that seems to be a “solved during the year” stat. Probably some are solved in following years. The last unsolved murder in my small city (pop. 300,000) was about 15 years ago, as I recall.
A normal civilization would simply go all Dueterte on the Special Subjects List, and help them along to their inevitable demise quickly.
The irony of this is that it is a Chicago born radical adage in play here:
Relating Chicago to SF in any respect is enraging.
This seems like a strong argument for federalism–a city with this many homicides needs to make a completely different tradeoff wrt safety vs civil liberties than a place where murders are extremely rare and most people don’t lock their doors at night.
Please keep telling me how much Black Lives Matter. 61 shootings over Christmas weekend. 11 of them were fatalities. Why should people care about cops shooting blacks when they seem hell bent on exterminating each other?
Black Lies Matter treat Black on Black murder like it's a minor cold, but treat the extremely less common White on Black murder like it's the most deadly form of cancer in the history of cancer.
I stayed @ the HI Chicago hostel & I had a fun time there.
There was this Jewish guy who was some kind of tourism official with the city. He was telling me stories about Mayor Daley and the mob museum. He told me about his work relationship with Obama - who he said used to work two doors down from him in the same building.
My family kept calling me, scared shitless i was going to get shot. At 1st I had these same fears. Then I started seeing women and Latino families walking around, at night.
The Jewish dude gave me 1 of those tourist maps of the city and drew a circle around a certain part of the west side & another circle around a part of the Southside.
I'll never forget his quote "stay away from these two places & you'll be just do fine."
.....and he was right. Walked to the lakefront & the famousfountaon there.
Women were there & families w young kids. My stomach fell thru my bowels with relief. I was expecting New Orleans, instead I got hipster Seattle.
Whites everywhere. Guess the thugs really are isolated in one or two areas.Replies: @Flip, @Mike Zwick, @MBlanc46
The thugs do occasionally break out ino the civilized areas and the subway is one of their hunting grounds, but in general your experience was typical.
Earlier this month, a black community activist was killed in the Austin neighborhood. He was driving home to Naperville from a card game. That’s about the fourth community activist that I have read about being shot in the last year or so and I don’t follow crime news. The other cities were Ferguson, MO, New York City, and DC.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-shootings-violence-20161201-story.html
I’m starting to think that was George Soros’ plan.
Same people getting shot multiple times, perhaps.
Gotta love the stats on perpetrator race! That same peculiar agnosia reigns in today’s widespread news coverage of post-Christmas “fights” at shopping malls all over the country.
Even the usually reliable Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4067534/Chaos-reigns-malls-country-break-mass-brawls.html
I figure, the area is about Ď€r^2, where r is 1/2 of 0.357″.
Thanks, I’ll post.
Only 89 out of 532 people shot died. Less than 20%. So the assailants apparently cannot aim well. And the race of the assailant is that unknown? Really?
The Sun Times has a special section. http://homicides.suntimes.com
Subtitle: Homicide Watch Chicago | Mark every death. Remember every victim
As odd as it might sound, There was a tendency to toss all gang/ghetto homicides into a single summary story of the days crime.
The Tribune has a nice layout. http://crime.chicagotribune.com/chicago/homicides
It includes a map which displays the not unexpected distribution of murders.
The number of white homicides is remarkably low. Maybe 35 for the year. With the local interest, its easy to eliminate the Hispanics and errors. And out of that 35, a few were hit by stray bullets and a few were living a 'criminal lifestyle' and a few domestics or similar.
People like to talk about neighborhoods exclusively as the driving force, but a surprising number of homicides in better areas are gang members shooting each other outside their home turf.
Another perspective is given in a blog called Second City Cop. http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com
In summary -- homicide is very concentrated. And not just by race, but within the black community. On the other hand, its just plain bad. And there is the danger of contagion.Replies: @Jefferson
“The number of white homicides is remarkably low”
That’s because of residential racial segregation. There are no Whites residing in the war zone zip codes of Chicago. That is why the Black underclass hates residential racial segregation so much and are so pro-Section 8 Housing. Their mentality is why should they be the only demographic group in America to suffer a 3rd World level murder rate. The Black underclass’s mentality is let’s spread this murderous misery to White people as well. Misery loves company. Ken and Barbie need to experience up close what a driveby shooting is like.
“Please keep telling me how much Black Lives Matter. 61 shootings over Christmas weekend. 11 of them were fatalities. Why should people care about cops shooting blacks when they seem hell bent on exterminating each other?”
Black Lies Matter treat Black on Black murder like it’s a minor cold, but treat the extremely less common White on Black murder like it’s the most deadly form of cancer in the history of cancer.