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With mass shootings back in the news, above are a couple of graphs of cumulative casualties from mass shootings that I made from Wikipedia’s list of Mass Shooting Incidents in 2020 and 2019. These shed some light on what likely caused the huge violence boom of 2020 — Covid or the Racial Reckoning — and who is doing most of the mass shooting.
Wikipedia uses the usual definition of a mass shooting as an incident with at least 4 casualties, whether killed or wounded.
As you can see, in terms of cumulative mass shooting casualties, the two years started out fairly similar, with 2020 pulling ahead in early March. During the first ten weeks of Covid, 2020 had fewer casualties than in the same period of 2019. But from Memorial Day Weekend onward, there were far more casualties from mass shootings in 2020 than in 2019:
|
Mass Shooting Casualties |
2019 | 2020 | Difference | Diff % | |
| Winter | Jan 1-Mar 17 | 302 | 385 | 83 | 27% |
| Lockdowns | Mar 18-May 25 | 384 | 338 | -46 | -12% |
| Racial Reckoning | May 26-Dec 31 | 1,590 | 2,338 | 748 | 47% |
| Total | Jan 1-Dec 31 | 2,276 | 3,061 | 785 | 34% |
This is not to say that we can definitively rule out the pandemic having some mysterious delayed reaction effect that suddenly caused mass shootings to explode ten weeks into it, which just coincidentally happened to be the first weekend of the Mostly Peaceful Riots.
Contrary to what you might imagine from news coverage, the New York Times reported in 2016 that in 2015’s 358 mass shootings, “nearly three-fourths of victims and suspected assailants whose race could be identified were black.” Similarly, Mass-Shootings.info reported that 68% of mass shooters charged in 2019 and 73% in 2020 were black. Of the 15 mass shootings in 2020 with the highest number of casualties, at least 13 involved black social events (the other two involved social events but the newspapers didn’t report the race of the shooters or victims).
So, my impression is that the media-declared Racial Reckoning led cops to retreat to the donut shop and led blacks to party exuberantly, which led to mass shootings. Of course, the real villain in all this is White Supremacy for reasons.
Perhaps this is all just ancient history so why am I bringing up all these hatestats?
Well, the green lines above show 2021 vs. 2019 and the new year looks bad: through March 17, total casualties from mass shootings were up 64% in 2021 over 2019.
I’d like to do similar graphs for total murders in 2020 vs 2019. Gun Violence Archive has the data, but I haven’t figured out how to download more than 2000 lines of their database. Any suggestions?
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If you’re interested in illegally immigrating to the nation of Georgia, click on this Tweet.
The American Medical Association cartel controls the market by limiting medical schools and residencies. There hasn't been a new medical school established in the US since 1980, despite population increase, and the residencies you have to go through are tightly controlled and limited.
You would be better off going to a Caribbean medical school or going to an osteopathic med school in the US. Education wise, the Caribbean med schools aren't bad and follow American standards, and have relationships with US hospitals to feed grads into US residencies, although residency options are much more limited than US med school grads. Osteopaths i.e. D.O.s are much more common and mainstream these days.Replies: @Polistra
Heaven is a place on earth.
Apparently, so is hell.
https://thepostmillennial.com/rob-hoogland-canada-prisoner-of-conscience
There was an injunction against misgendering, but the main thing was that the injunction contained a gag order preventing the father from talking to the media or via social media about his son/daughter and his Mia-Farrowesque, Munchausen-by-proxy, estranged wife.
He took to YouTube.
Gag orders are bad news in a democracy, even when a minor is involved, when the master concerns an issue of public policy interest and debate. Both the U.K. and Canada have slowly boiling-frogged into authoritarian states.Replies: @Pericles
The facts don’t matter anymore.
Lest we forget, this was a headline in The New York Times:
8 Minutes and 46 Seconds: How George Floyd Was Killed …
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/ab/Belinda_Carlisle_-_Heaven_on_Earth_cover.jpg
She still looks great.
Astronomer Mike Merrifield of the University of Nottingham tracks Covid numbers using Nightingale diagrams. He recommends it. (The process, not the virus.) Hmm… how would that look with shootings?
These charts really help with seasonal and cyclical phenomena.
https://twitter.com/wakawaka_doctor/status/1372594409624248323
https://twitter.com/wakawaka_doctor/status/1372594416771342338Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @anon
Do you really want to settle in a place that can lose its entire Internet service through a scavenging Armenian grandmother?
Oh, wait… I got that backward:
Georgian woman cuts off web access to whole of Armenia
Are you Caucasian enough for Georgia? Practice starting words with consonant clusters of six or seven.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOGEyBeoBGM
Apparently, so is hell.
https://twitter.com/BreitbartNews/status/1372757851932794884Replies: @Anon
Breitbart has it kind of scrambled.
https://thepostmillennial.com/rob-hoogland-canada-prisoner-of-conscience
There was an injunction against misgendering, but the main thing was that the injunction contained a gag order preventing the father from talking to the media or via social media about his son/daughter and his Mia-Farrowesque, Munchausen-by-proxy, estranged wife.
He took to YouTube.
Gag orders are bad news in a democracy, even when a minor is involved, when the master concerns an issue of public policy interest and debate. Both the U.K. and Canada have slowly boiling-frogged into authoritarian states.
https://twitter.com/wakawaka_doctor/status/1372594409624248323
https://twitter.com/wakawaka_doctor/status/1372594416771342338Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @anon
Not sure where you can practice with Georgian medical degrees.
The American Medical Association cartel controls the market by limiting medical schools and residencies. There hasn’t been a new medical school established in the US since 1980, despite population increase, and the residencies you have to go through are tightly controlled and limited.
You would be better off going to a Caribbean medical school or going to an osteopathic med school in the US. Education wise, the Caribbean med schools aren’t bad and follow American standards, and have relationships with US hospitals to feed grads into US residencies, although residency options are much more limited than US med school grads. Osteopaths i.e. D.O.s are much more common and mainstream these days.
The American Medical Association cartel controls the market by limiting medical schools and residencies. There hasn't been a new medical school established in the US since 1980, despite population increase, and the residencies you have to go through are tightly controlled and limited.
You would be better off going to a Caribbean medical school or going to an osteopathic med school in the US. Education wise, the Caribbean med schools aren't bad and follow American standards, and have relationships with US hospitals to feed grads into US residencies, although residency options are much more limited than US med school grads. Osteopaths i.e. D.O.s are much more common and mainstream these days.Replies: @Polistra
Lest we forget, this was a headline in The New York Times:
8 Minutes and 46 Seconds: How George Floyd Was Killed ...Replies: @El Dato, @Dr. Krieger
“He was on-cross longer than Jesus.”
Are Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia part of Europe or part of Asia/Middle East? Does it matter? Enquiring minds want to know.
The answer is YES.Replies: @tyrone, @Reg Cæsar
If Juneteenth becomes a national holiday this year, I expect it will surpass all expectations for mass shootings.
I’m actually surprised it hasn’t already. I suppose Black Lives Matter to the point of mass riots during a pandemic but Amazon can’t abide giving workers another day off.
LoL, Not a single article by Steve Sailer about the deaths of several Asian American women at the hands of a white shooter…Is busy covering Lana Del Ray’s music
lockdowns resulted in the widespread rioting across America. It was not due to the pandemic but due to the lockdowns which fueled civil unrest. Millions lost their jobs and shuttered schools resulted in millions of youths with nothing do do for months. Millions of people out of a job and stuck at home for months was a recipe for civil unrest. Banning social gatherings resulted in millions of frustrated, socially isolated people without jobs.
In 2014, when BLM rioted in Ferguson, when the rioting was contained to Ferguson. In contrast to 2015 when the rioting was restricted to Baltimore. While these incidents sparked protests, rioting was contained to the cities where the shootings actually happened. Not so in the case of the Floyd death, which prompted intense protests, riots, and police violence in almost every American city.
Why did the BLM riots spread across America in 2020 but not in 2014 or 2015 ?
The protests in response to Floyd’s death provided the only opportunity for millions of bored, frustrated, and out-of-work Americans to let off some steam. The only acceptable social gathering allowed for months was attending BLM protests. Without the lockdowns the BLM protests would never have spread from Minneapolis to New York City , Philadelphia, etc…
Millions of jobless Americans did not have to show up to work or school in the morning, and who therefore had less of a disincentive to participate in protests. At the same time, all of the social alternatives to protesting remained officially closed. Concerts, sporting events, and other forms of mass gatherings were prohibited nationwide. Yet the BLM protests were permitted while all other gatherings were banned.
It was not the pandemic but the extended lockdowns which fueled the nationwide protests after Floyd’s death in May. Millions of people cut-off from normal social interactions for months created pent up frustrations and the BLM protests were the only way for millions to vent their frustration and interact with others.
Lockdowns contributed to the spread of BLM protests and rioting, as millions of people had lost their jobs and schools, churches, concerts, clubs, etc.. were all shutdown. With no job or school to attend they had the time to protest. It was the only allowed social gathering in most states in the summer.
Sadly the lockdowns were unable to stop the spread of COVID while they destroyed the livelihoods of millions and resulted in civil unrest and rioting.
Ummm, Earth to Steve Sailer: FYI correlation is NOT causation, Einstein!!
Listen to the Science. God!
Meanwhile in the European Grindhouse:
IN THEATER 1: THE THIRD WAVE aka "We already know what you will do this summer"
Covid curbs aren’t working, says German health minister, warning more restrictions needed as third wave grows
Not enough vaccine in Europe to stop Covid-19 third wave, retreat into lockdown possible, German health minister warns
In THEATER 2: WRATH OF KHAN: BRITISH SADOMASOCHISM aka "They wanted it that way."
https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1372258572734717954
Compare the Ferguson effect to the Floyd effect
Why was the Floyd effect nationwide while the Ferguson effect was only observed in The St. Louis metro area in 2014.
Total homicides in US
2013 – 14,319 homicides
2014- 14,264 homicides
No increase in national murder rates observed in 2014 in contrast to 2020 which saw murder rates across America increase in every city except Ferguson. the Floyd effect was national while the Ferguson effect was mostly local. Rioting spread national wide in 2020 due to the lockdowns
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolefisher/2020/03/21/historyand-psychologypredict-riots-and-protests-amid-pandemic-lockdowns/?sh=7734f39014a6
history has taught us that whether it’s caused by fear, frustration, or the helplessness that comes with imprisonment, human beings do not respond well to forced lockdowns.
But what happens to the human brain – and subsequent behavioral responses – when placed on lockdown, much like imprisonment, is very predictable. Adrenaline and stress hormones like cortisol kick into an acute stress response. In the face of real or perceived inequality, people are quick to enter into a fight or flight response. Forced isolation, being separated from friends, co-workers, classmates or losing ones job, business and place of worship increased the stress and anger of millions of Americans. Sadly the consequences were economic destruction, riots and increased deaths of despair.
https://thepostmillennial.com/rob-hoogland-canada-prisoner-of-conscience
There was an injunction against misgendering, but the main thing was that the injunction contained a gag order preventing the father from talking to the media or via social media about his son/daughter and his Mia-Farrowesque, Munchausen-by-proxy, estranged wife.
He took to YouTube.
Gag orders are bad news in a democracy, even when a minor is involved, when the master concerns an issue of public policy interest and debate. Both the U.K. and Canada have slowly boiling-frogged into authoritarian states.Replies: @Pericles
Ricky Vaughn taken into FBI custody for posting political memes. <– YOU ARE HERE
Yes it is, because the whites don’t want black ghettoes to be broken up and their former denizens given vouchers to move into suburbia. Biden is going to make a start on that for Harris she hopes; it is is doable now because the black birthrate has fallen enough, and so has the white. With the coming county–busting the remaining criminally inclined blacks will longer be concentrated in propinquity, and shooting deaths will decline precipitously.
Netflix’s Fear City is not so much about the Mafia, as a time when there were real Italian neighborhoods and huge Catholic families (Gotti was one of 13 children) in NTC. It was as much the use of contraception and block busting as the RICO laws taking down the mafia. Once those ethnic neighbourhoods crumbled, the killings faded away. Italian crime was not really that different to the Bloods and Crips. Youth gangs such as almost all the mafia started in were extremely violent, Gotti’s underboss Gravano was habitually carrying a gun by his mid teens, and got shot on sight on two separate occasions by members of a rival Bensonhurst street gang.
The issue is the same one as immigration. I don't have any interest in, nor right to tell, say Guatemalans, where to live, or to pin them up in Guatemala. However, i have the right to prevent them from coming to live with me--in my nation.
The issue is the same one as having a house. I don't have any right to lock my neighbor up in his house. But i have the right to keep him out of mine.
The issue is freedom of association.
In short: white peoples' bodies do not exist for the benefit of blacks or any other people, nor for the social engineering desires of the state.
Of course, all of the concerns about riots, increase in murders and car-jackings, and rogue district attorneys would be so much stronger is the idiot Republicans can not decided to storm the US Capitol on Jan 6 and had not decided to make the Covid-19 response partisan and discount the deaths of over 500k Americans.
Steve used to propose that the Republican Party could survive by being the white people’s party. However, not the Trumpist have decided that the Republican Party can survive by being the sociopaths party that will appeal to black men and some Latinos while alienating college graduates. The focus on crime in deep blue cities while ignoring Covid-19 deaths fits with this approach.
That you're in the Dr Fauxi camp-- i.e., Trump wasn't fascist enough-- speaks volumes.Replies: @guest007
But it very often is.
Meanwhile in the European Grindhouse:
IN THEATER 1: THE THIRD WAVE aka “We already know what you will do this summer”
Covid curbs aren’t working, says German health minister, warning more restrictions needed as third wave grows
Not enough vaccine in Europe to stop Covid-19 third wave, retreat into lockdown possible, German health minister warns
In THEATER 2: WRATH OF KHAN: BRITISH SADOMASOCHISM aka “They wanted it that way.”
The real question is whether they fall under NATO’s dominion.
The answer is YES.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest#Participants
China, of all places, would have been accepted, but were turned down for editing out same-sex Irishmen and tatooed Albanians from their broadcast. Good for them!
Scotland and Wales are barred from independent participation in Eurovision, but can join Cornwall, Catalonia, Corsica, and the Faroes at Liet Ynternasjonaal. Where English is banned.
https://liet-international.com/friksbeheer/wp-content/themes/Stichting%20Liet/images/logo.pngReplies: @Luzzatto
Damn.
https://www.acornstairlifts.co.uk/assets/acorn-stairlifts-alt.jpg
2000 lines gets you 7/16/16 through 3/18/21. I see that downloading “Mass Shootings – All Years” from their standard reports page.
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports
That page also has yearly reports for 2014-2019. It seems straightforward to merge the All Years data with the 2014-2016 yearly data to get what you want.
Or am I misunderstanding what you are asking for?
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/query
Then create queries with different date ranges and Incident Characteristics containing Murder/Suicide (the latter cuts the number of matches dramatically). I think you will be able to get all of 2019-2020 in one report with that, but it might be better to do individual years all the way from 2014-2021.
If that does not do it for you please let me know.Replies: @David
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reportsThat page also has yearly reports for 2014-2019. It seems straightforward to merge the All Years data with the 2014-2016 yearly data to get what you want.Or am I misunderstanding what you are asking for?Replies: @res
To get all murders I think the best approach is to go to their “Search Database” page
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/query
Then create queries with different date ranges and Incident Characteristics containing Murder/Suicide (the latter cuts the number of matches dramatically). I think you will be able to get all of 2019-2020 in one report with that, but it might be better to do individual years all the way from 2014-2021.
If that does not do it for you please let me know.
Did you continue to follow Verisk's covid 19 pandemic model that you once linked to? How did they do?Replies: @res
Speaking of statistics, Chicago public schools has stated that “73% of [earlier than high school] kids have returned to the classroom.”
Complete bull.
Brief analysis reveals that:
• CPS enrolls ~205K kids (inmates) total in those grades.
• “Returned” means show-up (in-person) at least 1d/cal-m; special ed are allowed in every day; for others, the max is ~8 (i.e. “hybrid” model).
• “73%” is a total fudge.
The numerator is how many kids returned (see above): ~49K; avg attendance was ~30K/d.
The denominator is how many kids district officials “expected”: 60K (a figure revised downward a few times).
• 49/60 = 82%. (The discrepancy must be due to the bureaucratic way the district calculates FTE students, or something.)
Overall, only ~25% of kids eligible to show up actually did so (including those who only did once).
That just goes to show you that, as I’ve been posting for years, if compulsory attendance (i.e. the draft) were abolished, come the first day of school, 2/3 of the kids wouldn’t bother to go.
They need one of these.
Um, like DUH because there wasn’t and isn’t a pandemic.
Andrew Sullivan today:
The answer is YES.Replies: @tyrone, @Reg Cæsar
So, do you find yourself day-dreaming that Biden will do something monumentally stupid ….yeah me too.
The answer is YES.Replies: @tyrone, @Reg Cæsar
Culture trumps geopolitics. The real real question is whether they fall under Eurovision. All do, though Armenia has left:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest#Participants
China, of all places, would have been accepted, but were turned down for editing out same-sex Irishmen and tatooed Albanians from their broadcast. Good for them!
Scotland and Wales are barred from independent participation in Eurovision, but can join Cornwall, Catalonia, Corsica, and the Faroes at Liet Ynternasjonaal. Where English is banned.
Steve used to propose that the Republican Party could survive by being the white people's party. However, not the Trumpist have decided that the Republican Party can survive by being the sociopaths party that will appeal to black men and some Latinos while alienating college graduates. The focus on crime in deep blue cities while ignoring Covid-19 deaths fits with this approach.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @AnotherDad
College graduates have alienated themselves. Many are as sociopathic as BLM. Many are BLM.
That you’re in the Dr Fauxi camp– i.e., Trump wasn’t fascist enough— speaks volumes.
Of course, one of the long term lessons from the pandemic response will be to avoid partisanship. Something that the Trump Administration failed on.
Could you explain this more. I found a Murder/Suicides page, but there are only, for instance, a little over 200 incidents for 2019. For Mass Shootings the online table for all years tops out at 2,000, but that goes back from yesterday to mid-2016.
What page URL is the link or table you want to download on?
I could not locate a general murder database on the site, even with a “site:gunviolencearchive.org” search.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest#Participants
China, of all places, would have been accepted, but were turned down for editing out same-sex Irishmen and tatooed Albanians from their broadcast. Good for them!
Scotland and Wales are barred from independent participation in Eurovision, but can join Cornwall, Catalonia, Corsica, and the Faroes at Liet Ynternasjonaal. Where English is banned.
https://liet-international.com/friksbeheer/wp-content/themes/Stichting%20Liet/images/logo.pngReplies: @Luzzatto
The Chinese Communist Government make Mike Pence look like a Liberal on LGBTQ issues. Yet GLAAD hates Mike Pence a gazillion times more than they hate China!
Some background on the Gun Violence Archive:
What page URL is the link or table you want to download on?
I could not locate a general murder database on the site, even with a "site:gunviolencearchive.org" search.Replies: @Anon
Are you referring to the All Incidents databases, which include incidents with no deaths? Those are north of 2,000 for every year as far as I can tell.
Lest we forget, this was a headline in The New York Times:
8 Minutes and 46 Seconds: How George Floyd Was Killed ...Replies: @El Dato, @Dr. Krieger
Belinda Carlisle is a gorgeous woman. This album cover says it all.
She still looks great.
Tiny Donk
Alex! I’ll take “What is Who? Whom?” for $500!
In 2014, when BLM rioted in Ferguson, when the rioting was contained to Ferguson. In contrast to 2015 when the rioting was restricted to Baltimore. While these incidents sparked protests, rioting was contained to the cities where the shootings actually happened. Not so in the case of the Floyd death, which prompted intense protests, riots, and police violence in almost every American city.
Why did the BLM riots spread across America in 2020 but not in 2014 or 2015 ?
The protests in response to Floyd’s death provided the only opportunity for millions of bored, frustrated, and out-of-work Americans to let off some steam. The only acceptable social gathering allowed for months was attending BLM protests. Without the lockdowns the BLM protests would never have spread from Minneapolis to New York City , Philadelphia, etc...
Millions of jobless Americans did not have to show up to work or school in the morning, and who therefore had less of a disincentive to participate in protests. At the same time, all of the social alternatives to protesting remained officially closed. Concerts, sporting events, and other forms of mass gatherings were prohibited nationwide. Yet the BLM protests were permitted while all other gatherings were banned.
It was not the pandemic but the extended lockdowns which fueled the nationwide protests after Floyd’s death in May. Millions of people cut-off from normal social interactions for months created pent up frustrations and the BLM protests were the only way for millions to vent their frustration and interact with others.Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
while Ferguson resulted in a single BLM riot in 2014, the BLM rioting in 2020 began in Minneapolis and spread to 600 cities across America like a pandemic spreading death and destruction. BLM protests were the only way for Americans to gather in groups and socialize….all other gatherings, even attending church or hiking in State Parks was banned by our governor.
Lockdowns contributed to the spread of BLM protests and rioting, as millions of people had lost their jobs and schools, churches, concerts, clubs, etc.. were all shutdown. With no job or school to attend they had the time to protest. It was the only allowed social gathering in most states in the summer.
Sadly the lockdowns were unable to stop the spread of COVID while they destroyed the livelihoods of millions and resulted in civil unrest and rioting.
Standard gun control support from the usual anti-gun zillionaires.
For example, let’s take the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation:
Interestingly, the Gun Violence Archive (1133 Connecticut Avenue, NW) and the New Venture Fund (1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 300, Washington, DC) are practically neighbors; guess it’s easy to keep up their monkey’s paw of gun control.
Gets too sinful,
Drain accounts--
Their checks will bounce!
Try Burma Shave:
Myanmar Military Junta Seizes Bank Accounts of George Soros' Open Society Foundation Over Charges Of Funding Opposition Protests
Soros's Open Society Foundations calls for release of its staff member in Myanmar
Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy!
That you're in the Dr Fauxi camp-- i.e., Trump wasn't fascist enough-- speaks volumes.Replies: @guest007
All President Trump needed to go was repeat every day that “we are all in this together and will get through this” while letting VP Pence do all of the real work. Trump did best when he outsourced such as judicial appointments and screw up the most when trying to hog the credit.
Of course, one of the long term lessons from the pandemic response will be to avoid partisanship. Something that the Trump Administration failed on.
When foreign infil
Gets too sinful,
Drain accounts–
Their checks will bounce!
Try Burma Shave:
Myanmar Military Junta Seizes Bank Accounts of George Soros’ Open Society Foundation Over Charges Of Funding Opposition Protests
Soros’s Open Society Foundations calls for release of its staff member in Myanmar
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy!
Why was the Floyd effect nationwide while the Ferguson effect was only observed in The St. Louis metro area in 2014.
Total homicides in US
2013 - 14,319 homicides
2014- 14,264 homicides
No increase in national murder rates observed in 2014 in contrast to 2020 which saw murder rates across America increase in every city except Ferguson. the Floyd effect was national while the Ferguson effect was mostly local. Rioting spread national wide in 2020 due to the lockdownsReplies: @Travis, @Steve Sailer
History – and Psychology – Predict Riots and Protests amid Lockdowns.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolefisher/2020/03/21/historyand-psychologypredict-riots-and-protests-amid-pandemic-lockdowns/?sh=7734f39014a6
history has taught us that whether it’s caused by fear, frustration, or the helplessness that comes with imprisonment, human beings do not respond well to forced lockdowns.
But what happens to the human brain – and subsequent behavioral responses – when placed on lockdown, much like imprisonment, is very predictable. Adrenaline and stress hormones like cortisol kick into an acute stress response. In the face of real or perceived inequality, people are quick to enter into a fight or flight response. Forced isolation, being separated from friends, co-workers, classmates or losing ones job, business and place of worship increased the stress and anger of millions of Americans. Sadly the consequences were economic destruction, riots and increased deaths of despair.
Steve used to propose that the Republican Party could survive by being the white people's party. However, not the Trumpist have decided that the Republican Party can survive by being the sociopaths party that will appeal to black men and some Latinos while alienating college graduates. The focus on crime in deep blue cities while ignoring Covid-19 deaths fits with this approach.Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @AnotherDad
Back in college i would have said, “pass that over here, man”.
OT: “Compared to 2018 and 2019 deaths per 100k, 2020 saw one extra death among those under age five, an additional 1.5 deaths among those aged 5 to 14, and a whopping 23 additional deaths among those aged 15 to 24. Overall, deaths per 100k in this age group jumped from 106.4 per 100k in 2019 to 131.7 per 100k during 2020. That’s an increase of 23% — and Covid only accounts for 1.2% of total deaths in ages 0–24 years.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/more-covid-suicides-covid-deaths-kids
White people have approximately zero interest in telling blacks where to live. What most whites want is the right to live in their own communities, with their people, norms, values, culture. A fundamental right.
The issue is the same one as immigration. I don’t have any interest in, nor right to tell, say Guatemalans, where to live, or to pin them up in Guatemala. However, i have the right to prevent them from coming to live with me–in my nation.
The issue is the same one as having a house. I don’t have any right to lock my neighbor up in his house. But i have the right to keep him out of mine.
The issue is freedom of association.
In short: white peoples’ bodies do not exist for the benefit of blacks or any other people, nor for the social engineering desires of the state.
Why was the Floyd effect nationwide while the Ferguson effect was only observed in The St. Louis metro area in 2014.
Total homicides in US
2013 - 14,319 homicides
2014- 14,264 homicides
No increase in national murder rates observed in 2014 in contrast to 2020 which saw murder rates across America increase in every city except Ferguson. the Floyd effect was national while the Ferguson effect was mostly local. Rioting spread national wide in 2020 due to the lockdownsReplies: @Travis, @Steve Sailer
During the first BLM Era, the total number of murders went up 22.9% from 2014 to 2016, with the biggest increases tending to be in cities where BLM won politically, such as St. Louis, Baltimore, and Chicago.
The number of murders in 2014 was actually slightly less than 2013, with one big exception - Ferguson
While in 2020 the murder rate surged 25% in the months after the Floyd riots, no surge in US killings was observed in the months after the Ferguson riots.Replies: @anon
Thanks.
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/query
Then create queries with different date ranges and Incident Characteristics containing Murder/Suicide (the latter cuts the number of matches dramatically). I think you will be able to get all of 2019-2020 in one report with that, but it might be better to do individual years all the way from 2014-2021.
If that does not do it for you please let me know.Replies: @David
I sent Steve an excel workbook with the data. It excludes accidental shootings and suicides. Contains about 107,000 records.
Did you continue to follow Verisk’s covid 19 pandemic model that you once linked to? How did they do?
https://www.unz.com/jthompson/sneeze-and-fly/#comment-3890408
is broken, which seems like a bad sign.
Verisk has more at
https://www.verisk.com/resources/COVID-19/
This recent article states 90% is likely needed for herd immunity which makes me now inclined to think they are idiots.
https://www.verisk.com/insurance/covid-19/iso-insights/new-models-and-ai-may-improve-covid-19-case-estimates/Replies: @David
Why was there no increase in the murder rate in the months after the Ferguson riots ? In contrast to the Floyd riot which resulted in a 25% increase in killings in the months after The Minneapolis riots ?
The number of murders in 2014 was actually slightly less than 2013, with one big exception – Ferguson
While in 2020 the murder rate surged 25% in the months after the Floyd riots, no surge in US killings was observed in the months after the Ferguson riots.
In the comment you just replied to:Suggest you read more carefully. Also the Unz search tool is pretty good. Try using it.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/q-does-the-ferguson-effect-exist-a-it-sure-does-in-ferguson/
https://www.unz.com/isteve/liberal-researcher-now-admits-ferguson-effect-on-murder-is-real/Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
Since April 2020 the Republicans have been resisting any action meant to lessen the impact of Covid-19. From April 2020 on, the Republicans have argue that maintain a certain level of economic activity is more important than 550k deaths and over 1 million additional hospitalizations. The callus disregard for life and health is one of the reasons that Republicans lost the White House and the Senate in 2020. Yet, no Republican seems to care and have decided to double down on being narcissistic sociopaths no display contempt for most other Americans.
TrollReplies: @guest007
The number of murders in 2014 was actually slightly less than 2013, with one big exception - Ferguson
While in 2020 the murder rate surged 25% in the months after the Floyd riots, no surge in US killings was observed in the months after the Ferguson riots.Replies: @anon
Why was there no increase in the murder rate in the months after the Ferguson riots ?
In the comment you just replied to:
Suggest you read more carefully. Also the Unz search tool is pretty good. Try using it.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/q-does-the-ferguson-effect-exist-a-it-sure-does-in-ferguson/
https://www.unz.com/isteve/liberal-researcher-now-admits-ferguson-effect-on-murder-is-real/
Steve then ignored this fact and jumped to 2016 statistics to show 2 year trend
Yet 2020 had a surge of 25% within 5 months of the Floyd rioting. Very different outcome , Why?
Because the lockdowns in 2020 resulted in a pandemic of rioting unlike 2014.....0ver 500 riots in 2020 compared to 2 in 2014. Why
Over 2,000 BLM protests in 2020 , just 25 in 2014. Why....Replies: @res
Since April 2020 the Republicans have been resisting any action meant to lessen the impact of Covid-19.
Troll
TrollReplies: @guest007
The Republicans have been against shut downs, working form home, social distancing, masks, and now are against vaccines. It seems that Republicans would have been happier with 3 million dead Americans just so long as they could pack a bar on Friday night. Image what would have happened in someone like Kristi Noem has been in charge.
• Troll
Another GMU DC area female load of a black EEOC ‘professional’ race-baiting author of dim thought processes. Not worth the space in the Times, nor all the comments there. All our lives we’ve spent staying the hell away from blacks going back to our grandparents. Simple stuff this. Dorothy Brown is kooky in the search and reach for SOMETHING to call the basic strategy of home buying, which is a survival strategy that has but ONE priority, staying the hell away from blacks, their crime and violence, a strategy liberals cloak as the search for “good schools. When Dorothy moves out of Fairfax City, Virginia and into NE DC, say 20 blocks out from Capitol Hill on the Anacostia river, on Martin Luther King Ave in close to SE, she can then see why we move away. She’s never experienced it herself, I promise. And believe you me, if they plant hood rats near her fancy house in a White neighborhood and she realizes it’s a home invasion risk, she’ll move faster than a speeding bullet. The hypocrisy of these women is breathtaking.
In the comment you just replied to:Suggest you read more carefully. Also the Unz search tool is pretty good. Try using it.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/q-does-the-ferguson-effect-exist-a-it-sure-does-in-ferguson/
https://www.unz.com/isteve/liberal-researcher-now-admits-ferguson-effect-on-murder-is-real/Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
There was no national surge in murders after Ferguson. The murder rate went down in 2014
Steve then ignored this fact and jumped to 2016 statistics to show 2 year trend
Yet 2020 had a surge of 25% within 5 months of the Floyd rioting. Very different outcome , Why?
Because the lockdowns in 2020 resulted in a pandemic of rioting unlike 2014…..0ver 500 riots in 2020 compared to 2 in 2014. Why
Over 2,000 BLM protests in 2020 , just 25 in 2014. Why….
Did you continue to follow Verisk's covid 19 pandemic model that you once linked to? How did they do?Replies: @res
Thanks for putting together that data. Has there been a post about it? I haven’t been following iSteve closely the last few days and need to catch up.
No. I got pretty frustrated with the Covidiocy in May and stopped paying as much attention. The link I gave in this comment
https://www.unz.com/jthompson/sneeze-and-fly/#comment-3890408
is broken, which seems like a bad sign.
Verisk has more at
https://www.verisk.com/resources/COVID-19/
This recent article states 90% is likely needed for herd immunity which makes me now inclined to think they are idiots.
https://www.verisk.com/insurance/covid-19/iso-insights/new-models-and-ai-may-improve-covid-19-case-estimates/
Verisk's real product is junk models that allow insurance company management to sidestep responsibility by relying on the accepted experts. It doesn't diminish the value of their business proposition that even after an event, with all NOAA's data freely available to all, Verisk's initial estimate of damage is sometimes off by 20 times their own estimated standard deviation.
Steve then ignored this fact and jumped to 2016 statistics to show 2 year trend
Yet 2020 had a surge of 25% within 5 months of the Floyd rioting. Very different outcome , Why?
Because the lockdowns in 2020 resulted in a pandemic of rioting unlike 2014.....0ver 500 riots in 2020 compared to 2 in 2014. Why
Over 2,000 BLM protests in 2020 , just 25 in 2014. Why....Replies: @res
The 2020 election. Is that not obvious?
https://www.unz.com/jthompson/sneeze-and-fly/#comment-3890408
is broken, which seems like a bad sign.
Verisk has more at
https://www.verisk.com/resources/COVID-19/
This recent article states 90% is likely needed for herd immunity which makes me now inclined to think they are idiots.
https://www.verisk.com/insurance/covid-19/iso-insights/new-models-and-ai-may-improve-covid-19-case-estimates/Replies: @David
Thanks for the links. Steve has not posted on it yet. I’d bet he’s thinking it through.
Verisk’s real product is junk models that allow insurance company management to sidestep responsibility by relying on the accepted experts. It doesn’t diminish the value of their business proposition that even after an event, with all NOAA’s data freely available to all, Verisk’s initial estimate of damage is sometimes off by 20 times their own estimated standard deviation.