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Masks: Inbound and Outbound Protection
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We need an agreed upon vocabulary for discussing the two main reasons for masks. Maybe .. “inbound” protection for yourself and “outbound” protection for others.

I think that could also help foster a useful compromise for the shortage problem that has been causing a lot of the disinformation about how Masks Don’t Work: reserve the top-of-the-line N95 masks right now for health care workers who need the most inbound self-protection, while everybody else should be using all other types of masks, which hopefully do a pretty good job of outbound protection of other people.

This distinction would be good for people who want to do the right thing: presently, they are paralyzed between the March warning that civilians wearing masks are bad for the hospitals and the April warning that civilians wearing masks are good for society. So, distinguish between hospital-approved N95s and everything else.

 
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  1. • Replies: @Jack Armstrong
    @IHTG

    OFF TOPIC:

    DEAD! Adam Schlesinger, a singer-songwriter for the bands Fountains of Wayne and Ivy, has died aged 52.

    He was also an award-winning writer of songs for film, theatre and television.

    His lawyer, Josh Grier, said that Adam passed away on Wednesday from complications brought on by coronavirus.

    Adam's critically acclaimed band Fountains of Wayne, in which he played bass while Chris Collingwood played guitar and sang vocals, rose to fame with 2003 hit, Stacy's Mom.

    The track about a teenage boy who was infatuated with his friend's mum, reached number 21 on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart and featured supermodel Rachel Hunter in the video.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  2. Seems like a reasonable compromise, so a lot of people won’t do it.

    • Replies: @John Cunningham
    @Redneck farmer

    Here's a totally logical solution: 3 categories of competition. Males, females, and psychotic sexual freaks. Problem solved.

  3. • Replies: @moshe
    @wren

    Will someone remind me again why we didn't just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people and then after pretty much every susceptible person got it, whether they realize it or not, we had heard immunity and the old people could return to active life?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Hail

  4. Here in Pretoria, South Africa, we have been locked-down since last Thurs. I’m wearing a mask whilst out shopping at the local supermarket, which I’ve done once so far since Thursday. It was made by my wife from a bunch of vacuum cleaner HEPA filter bags I managed to buy.

    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks and certainly better than the packet of FFP2 masks I have at home I bought for angle grinding during the home renovations we recently did.

    A HEPA filter — high-efficiency particulate absorbing — is specified to stop 99.95% of particles of 3 microns and under.

    Short English language video from the Czech government espousing universal mask usage — How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus?

    • Replies: @wren
    @NickG

    The Czechs don't have any masks left for universal usage, though. ;-)

    https://www.twitter.com/_JakubJanda/status/1242475545545199617

    Replies: @SOL

    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @NickG

    Any instructions for the DIY crowd on a similar mask? How many filters did your wife use for one of these masks?

    Replies: @NickG, @Simon Tugmutton

    , @Mr McKenna
    @NickG

    Is HEPA an international standard? The definition here in the USA is "HEPA air filters must meet a minimum efficiency of 99.97% at 0.3 microns." And it's always the specified dimension and larger particles which are stopped, FWIW.

    Separately, I noted this quote from the CMO at WebMD:


    "If you are immunocompromised, such as receiving cancer treatment or recently treated or even perhaps cancer survivor, you are at greater risk for catching the virus and doing poorly," Dr. John Whyte, chief medical officer, WebMD, told Fox News. "Patients with diabetes and heart disease do worse when they get infected. In addition, if you have lung problems such as severe asthma, you are also at greater risk."

    "Too much alcohol can also contribute to difficulties in fighting infection," Whyte said. "Diabetes, heart disease, kidney and liver problems, respiratory diseases, and even severe obesity can make it much harder to recover if you contract the virus."
     

    All of that makes sense to me except for the "greater risk of catching the virus" part. Easy to see why various factors affect your performance once infected but how does (e.g.) cancer treatment affect your likelihood of getting infected in the first place?

    Replies: @Redman, @Dissident

    , @unit472
    @NickG

    Good idea! I have a box of 25 N95 masks leftover from the swine flu pandemic in 2009. They seem to be in good shape so I wear one when I go to the grocery/pharmacy. To conserve them I put the one I wore on the dash of my car and figure the Florida sun will sterilize it after a day or two.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    , @Jack D
    @NickG


    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks
     
    The filtration may be as good or even better. However, there is a trade-off between filtration and breathability - vac bags are made with the assumption that a powerful electric blower is going to be sucking the air thru, not a set of human lungs.

    N95s are molded to fit the face and have metal nose clips and gaskets in order to form a seal. Any homemade mask is going to leak around the edges. The more impermeable the filter material is, the more you are going to bypass the filter and suck air from around the edges.

    Any homemade mask is going to be better than nothing. But N95s are better if you can get them.

    Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out, in fact eager to get rid of them because they stockpiled billions of them to prepare for the epidemics that did not come outside of Hubei Province. Some are coming out now by air but large #'s should start showing up by container ship in the next few weeks.

    Replies: @Coemgen, @Muggles

    , @Father O'Hara
    @NickG

    If you live in SA,you've got bigger problems than COVID,pal.

  5. Masks are good. They reduce the viral loads being dispersed by the virus infected. But you will be a reject if you are the only one wearing one. Intelligent people will give you a wide berth.
    South Koreans have been the most successful, I bet they have been producing millions of N95s right at home for at least 6 weeks. Ever since that crazy ass Shincheonjigot church got lots of Koreans infected or dead. The wacky man who heads it up is 88 with perfectly black (dyed) hair and bills himself as Messiah.

    • Replies: @wren
    @Clyde

    https://www.twitter.com/WinnieDynasty/status/1245024810817720323?s=20

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Clyde

    Who are you to say the Messiah wouldn't dye his hair?

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Clyde

    "Masks are good."

    Helmets are better.

    Hazmat suits are bestest.

    Everyone gear up. For the children. Wait, I mean for the boomers. Yet another reason to love CoronaHoax: for once, the fakestream media don't even bother mewling that it's for the children.

    , @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @Clyde


    But you will be a reject if you are the only one wearing one. Intelligent people will give you a wide berth.
     
    Given current circumstances that’s a feature, not a bug.

    Not sure why grown men on Unz.com keep worrying what random strangers think… is it a lot of lingering (decades old ???) schoolyard trauma from being mocked/rejected?
  6. One can’t escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn’t do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @The Alarmist

    That's because our government is run on behalf of people who are rich enough to ride out a pandemic on their floating castle:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-coronavirus-ravages-the-us-media-mogul-david-geffen-observes-a-sunset-from-his-400-million-superyacht-im-hoping-everybody-is-staying-safe-2020-03-28

    Replies: @Lockean Proviso

    , @Cagey Beast
    @The Alarmist

    We are governed by people who believe in the cult of Lie Magic. They believe they can best manage us --- and thereby change reality -- by lying to us. When this is over, they need to go.

    , @ChrisZ
    @The Alarmist

    Not just government, Alarmist. It was people in the medical profession, in my experience, who were most adamant that masks were "useless" to people seeking protection from infection. I don't think the doctors I personally spoke with were being maliciously dishonest; I assume they were taking the "anything less the 100% might as well be 0%" stance, which is merely literal, but misguided.

    But almost certainly physicians en masse received some kind of advisory that the "masks are useless" line should be official public policy. It had the obvious character of a talking point. Whether it came from the government, or originated in the health field and was adopted/promulgated by the government, it's hard to tell.

    BTW, as a talking point it didn't work, even coming from doctors. I found the evidence of empty mask sections in every local drugstore more persuasive. A post Steve made about buying a mask sealed it for me, and I've had them on hand ever since. I've gotten over the initial embarassment, and now just wear one, with gloves, when I'm away from home.

    , @Muse
    @The Alarmist

    The govt was simply trying to save healthcare worker’s lives by reserving masks for them. Reducing the rate of infection for healthcare workers is the most critical link in the chain. We can ramp up mask production in the next month or two. How long does it take to make a good pulmonologist or nurse? I am getting daily emergency phone alerts on my phone for the State of Illinois begging any available healthcare personnel to volunteer to work.

    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

    Only fools and wishful thinkers believed the government line that masks were not required. Any disease with an R0 over 3 is being transmitted through the air, therefore masks will reduce the threat.

    The long term political question is why we did not have enough masks and other critical supplies for a pandemic that was inevitable? More importantly, why do we allow politicians to promulgate trade policies that reduce the redundancy of the global supply chain by concentrating production in low cost countries that are competing with us for global and economic hegemony?

    Unsurprisingly, Trump for all his bluster and goofiness is dead right about the insane US trade and immigration policies.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @AnotherDad

    , @AnotherDad
    @The Alarmist


    One can’t escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn’t do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.
     
    We already knew that the super-state, the liberal establishment, the Democratic party hate actual white gentile Americans as they push "nation of immigrants" population replacement and preach open anti-white rhetoric.

    But i still find it maddening when some state functionaries--living well at our expense with their bennies and pensions--demonstrate their contempt for the American people with outright unabashed f.u. lying.

    Beyond all the normal personal cold+flu stuff--stay hydrated, cover your mouth when you sneeze, wash hands, don't touch your face, humidify, chicken soup--the big three public/interpersonal asks for this were obvious:
    1) sick people stay home, no exceptions
    2) alcohol gel at entrances/exits to public buildings and work to disinfect (bleach, etc.) surfaces
    3) people wear masks in indoor public and crowded outdoor spaces

    The CDC specifically told people not to do #3.

    The CDC is a criminal organization. Really these "professionals"--the people responsible for their "planning", the ones pushing the quarantines don't work, the ones yapping about "stigma" and "racism", and the ones behind this "you don't need a mask" ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @DanHessinMD, @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    , @guest007
    @The Alarmist

    The difference is that medical workers are fitted with a mask from a variety of sizes, are taught had to wear it and doff it correctly, and have supervisors yelling at them to wear it correctly. If you look at most people in public, they are wearing a mask of the wrong size, are not doffing it correctly, and many times, have their nose above the mask because the mask gets wet after long wear periods. A good rule of thumb is that if the mask is every around someone's neck for any reason, that person does not know what they are doing. Also, the mask needs to be combined with gloves to be more effective

    Masks for the public are best at keeping your germs off of other people, they do offer some protection from airborne droplets but my guess is the protection factor is somewhat less than 5.

    And last, if someone is wears an N95 mask and you do not see a bluge of neck fat around the bottom half, the wearer was not fitted properly and not wearing it properly.

    , @Mr. Anon
    @The Alarmist

    Yes, the obvious question to me is why should we trust Anthony Fauci and other public health professionals who looked us in the eye and told us such an obvious, brazen lie? Why should we trust them now? Why should we ever trust them again?

    There are other epidemiologists. Fauci and Birx are not the only ones. Does anyone really think that they are top people because they have risen to the top of the federal bureaucracy?

  7. Steve,

    This already exists in the research literature.

    The terms are “source” and “receiver”.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Chrisnonymous

    For example:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26225807

    Which I posted before, by the way:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-latest/#comment-3802428

  8. @NickG
    Here in Pretoria, South Africa, we have been locked-down since last Thurs. I'm wearing a mask whilst out shopping at the local supermarket, which I've done once so far since Thursday. It was made by my wife from a bunch of vacuum cleaner HEPA filter bags I managed to buy.

    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks and certainly better than the packet of FFP2 masks I have at home I bought for angle grinding during the home renovations we recently did.

    A HEPA filter — high-efficiency particulate absorbing — is specified to stop 99.95% of particles of 3 microns and under.

    Short English language video from the Czech government espousing universal mask usage — How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus?

    Replies: @wren, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Mr McKenna, @unit472, @Jack D, @Father O'Hara

    The Czechs don’t have any masks left for universal usage, though. 😉

    • Replies: @SOL
    @wren

    Truly deserving of the epithet "ant people."

  9. @Clyde
    Masks are good. They reduce the viral loads being dispersed by the virus infected. But you will be a reject if you are the only one wearing one. Intelligent people will give you a wide berth.
    South Koreans have been the most successful, I bet they have been producing millions of N95s right at home for at least 6 weeks. Ever since that crazy ass Shincheonjigot church got lots of Koreans infected or dead. The wacky man who heads it up is 88 with perfectly black (dyed) hair and bills himself as Messiah.

    Replies: @wren, @Chrisnonymous, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Jenner Ickham Errican

    • LOL: keypusher
  10. @The Alarmist
    One can't escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn't do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Cagey Beast, @ChrisZ, @Muse, @AnotherDad, @guest007, @Mr. Anon

    That’s because our government is run on behalf of people who are rich enough to ride out a pandemic on their floating castle:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-coronavirus-ravages-the-us-media-mogul-david-geffen-observes-a-sunset-from-his-400-million-superyacht-im-hoping-everybody-is-staying-safe-2020-03-28

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Yacht refuges are so nineties– the cool billionaires have their own island or Patagonian ranch with tested and quarantined staff. If they have to helicopter in for a brief crisis resolution, they've got their exposed immunity blood boy to give them antibody doping.

    The Illuminati, of course, have already been vaccinated so that they can stay healthy cashing into and out of the market cycles. Busy days for them.

  11. @NickG
    Here in Pretoria, South Africa, we have been locked-down since last Thurs. I'm wearing a mask whilst out shopping at the local supermarket, which I've done once so far since Thursday. It was made by my wife from a bunch of vacuum cleaner HEPA filter bags I managed to buy.

    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks and certainly better than the packet of FFP2 masks I have at home I bought for angle grinding during the home renovations we recently did.

    A HEPA filter — high-efficiency particulate absorbing — is specified to stop 99.95% of particles of 3 microns and under.

    Short English language video from the Czech government espousing universal mask usage — How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus?

    Replies: @wren, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Mr McKenna, @unit472, @Jack D, @Father O'Hara

    Any instructions for the DIY crowd on a similar mask? How many filters did your wife use for one of these masks?

    • Replies: @NickG
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan


    Any instructions for the DIY crowd on a similar mask? How many filters did your wife use for one of these masks?
     
    2 masks per filter. Will post instructions plus photo tomorrow, we tried 5 designs before settling on one. I wanted the straps around the head, not the ears. I know enough to know that ear straps will get sore very quickly.
    , @Simon Tugmutton
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNjpH5lBZ8w

    https://youtu.be/ZUvWbyj6MFQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YXQ0Y1NxdY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fySsaOojEVM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8HNYKvlaN8

  12. @NickG
    Here in Pretoria, South Africa, we have been locked-down since last Thurs. I'm wearing a mask whilst out shopping at the local supermarket, which I've done once so far since Thursday. It was made by my wife from a bunch of vacuum cleaner HEPA filter bags I managed to buy.

    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks and certainly better than the packet of FFP2 masks I have at home I bought for angle grinding during the home renovations we recently did.

    A HEPA filter — high-efficiency particulate absorbing — is specified to stop 99.95% of particles of 3 microns and under.

    Short English language video from the Czech government espousing universal mask usage — How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus?

    Replies: @wren, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Mr McKenna, @unit472, @Jack D, @Father O'Hara

    Is HEPA an international standard? The definition here in the USA is “HEPA air filters must meet a minimum efficiency of 99.97% at 0.3 microns.” And it’s always the specified dimension and larger particles which are stopped, FWIW.

    Separately, I noted this quote from the CMO at WebMD:

    “If you are immunocompromised, such as receiving cancer treatment or recently treated or even perhaps cancer survivor, you are at greater risk for catching the virus and doing poorly,” Dr. John Whyte, chief medical officer, WebMD, told Fox News. “Patients with diabetes and heart disease do worse when they get infected. In addition, if you have lung problems such as severe asthma, you are also at greater risk.”

    “Too much alcohol can also contribute to difficulties in fighting infection,” Whyte said. “Diabetes, heart disease, kidney and liver problems, respiratory diseases, and even severe obesity can make it much harder to recover if you contract the virus.”

    All of that makes sense to me except for the “greater risk of catching the virus” part. Easy to see why various factors affect your performance once infected but how does (e.g.) cancer treatment affect your likelihood of getting infected in the first place?

    • Replies: @Redman
    @Mr McKenna

    Nobody has any clue about how easy it is to catch this or not. All information we’re seeing is based on people who they “know” have had it.

    I’m almost positive I had it (living here in ground zero Westchester) and have recovered. It took a while (about 3 weeks) but I’m finally feeling normal.

    I suspect far more people have been infected and we don’t know. But immunocompromised people are almost always at greater risk of both getting and fighting off infections.

    , @Dissident
    @Mr McKenna


    Easy to see why various factors affect your performance once infected but how does (e.g.) cancer treatment affect your likelihood of getting infected in the first place?
     
    Re-read the beginning of the quoted-text you posted.
    “If you are immunocompromised, such as receiving cancer treatment or recently treated or even perhaps cancer survivor,

    I assume you know what immunocompromised means.

    Replies: @Mr McKenna

  13. @Clyde
    Masks are good. They reduce the viral loads being dispersed by the virus infected. But you will be a reject if you are the only one wearing one. Intelligent people will give you a wide berth.
    South Koreans have been the most successful, I bet they have been producing millions of N95s right at home for at least 6 weeks. Ever since that crazy ass Shincheonjigot church got lots of Koreans infected or dead. The wacky man who heads it up is 88 with perfectly black (dyed) hair and bills himself as Messiah.

    Replies: @wren, @Chrisnonymous, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Who are you to say the Messiah wouldn’t dye his hair?

  14. A good idea would be to print up the US Constitution on these masks and on our short supply of toilet paper.

    That way we always know exactly what we think of it when we use them. It and the better men who risked everything so that would might keep it.

    Another month of this Stay at Home order in Illinois. The possible consequences of which are the most terrifying part of all of this.

  15. @Chrisnonymous
    Steve,

    This already exists in the research literature.

    The terms are "source" and "receiver".

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  16. @NickG
    Here in Pretoria, South Africa, we have been locked-down since last Thurs. I'm wearing a mask whilst out shopping at the local supermarket, which I've done once so far since Thursday. It was made by my wife from a bunch of vacuum cleaner HEPA filter bags I managed to buy.

    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks and certainly better than the packet of FFP2 masks I have at home I bought for angle grinding during the home renovations we recently did.

    A HEPA filter — high-efficiency particulate absorbing — is specified to stop 99.95% of particles of 3 microns and under.

    Short English language video from the Czech government espousing universal mask usage — How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus?

    Replies: @wren, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Mr McKenna, @unit472, @Jack D, @Father O'Hara

    Good idea! I have a box of 25 N95 masks leftover from the swine flu pandemic in 2009. They seem to be in good shape so I wear one when I go to the grocery/pharmacy. To conserve them I put the one I wore on the dash of my car and figure the Florida sun will sterilize it after a day or two.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @unit472


    The good news is, your windshield blocks virtually all damaging UV radiation.

    "Your windshield is normally quite different from the rest of your glass, in that it's two pieces of glass laminated with a layer of plastic – vinyl – in between," says Vandal. "So that triple-layer system by its nature – because plastics don't like UV – contains UV inhibitors that protect the plastic and as a result also protect any transmission of UV through it. So a windshield, laminated glass, blocks 98 to 99 per cent of all UV – A, B or C."

    Due to safety regulations, all windshields in North America are made of laminated glass. The side and back windows, however, are typically a single layer of thicker, tempered glass.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/commuting/does-my-windshield-protect-me-from-the-sun/article12495123/
     

    Replies: @Anon

  17. @The Alarmist
    One can't escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn't do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Cagey Beast, @ChrisZ, @Muse, @AnotherDad, @guest007, @Mr. Anon

    We are governed by people who believe in the cult of Lie Magic. They believe they can best manage us — and thereby change reality — by lying to us. When this is over, they need to go.

  18. Has Steve seen the Cass Sunstein turnabout.

    https://unherd.com/2020/03/dont-trust-the-psychologists-on-coronavirus/

    Much of the useful advice behavioural scientists can give isn’t really based on “science” to any important degree, and is intuitive and obvious.

    Where they try to be counter-intuitive — for instance, arguing that people are wrong to find a global pandemic frightening — they simply end up embarrassing themselves, or worse, endangering people by having them make fewer pandemic preparations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cass_Sunstein#2019-2020_Coronavirus_pandemic

    He argued that “most people in North America and Europe do not need to worry much about the risk of contracting the disease.” In his view, there was “no adequate reason” to change travel plans or other socioeconomic behaviors, since they risk “plummeting stock prices.” In the face of this, Sunstein urged calm and cautioned leaders to weigh the costs of merely potentially saving lives against the actual costs of falling prices in corporate equities. He blamed this tendency to view possibly saving lives as better than actually saving money on “probability neglect,” a term that he invented.

    Sunstein is a constitutional lawyer, so what he knows about such subjects or is able to learn in his twilight years is beyond me.

    Sunstein seems like somebody who would have been better suited to have become a Rabbi or a doctor rather than a public intellectual. He seems to just get off on preaching to ‘little people’ and could have done so in those fields with relatively little harm. He couldn’t even get enough of it as a constitutional scholar. America seems particularly suffice with such people.

    But I think it’s just another manifestation of the narcissism of modern elites who don’t understand that ordinary people might have very different values, incentives and priorities to them and so declare every time that such a conflict erupts that the working classes have given in to ‘fear’ which is apparently an entirely unhealthy emotion except when they express it in histrionic fashion like they have for the last 3-4 years. Like how doctors don’t have unions, they have ‘associations’, the urban anywhere people (Ikea people: https://jacobitemag.com/2017/09/13/the-ikea-humans-the-social-base-of-contemporary-liberalism/) don’t feel fear, they feel ‘concern’.

    • Agree: HammerJack, TWS
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Altai

    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite. Whatever deplorables believe, they believe the opposite. If, two weeks ago deplorables were afraid, they were bravely fearless. If deplorables are foolishly unafraid today, they are rightfully fearful. If a month ago Trump said close the borders , they wanted them open. If Trump says open the borders , they want them closed.Trump is always evil and wrong so whatever he says is, by definition wrong and must be opposed.

    Sleepy Joe was not looking good before this all started, but Wuhan Virus is a terrific opportunity for the Left. Never let a crisis go to waste. They are positively rooting for the epidemic to run out of control so that it can be blamed on Trump. BTW, what is the correlation between the level of epidemic and voting "blue"? NYC voted 4 to 1 for Hillary.

    William F. Buckley's pronouncement that he would rather have the US ruled by random names picked from the phonebook than by the Harvard faculty is more true than ever.

    Replies: @Altai, @Jonathan Mason, @Christopher Paul

    , @Lugash
    @Altai


    But I think it’s just another manifestation of the narcissism of modern elites who don’t understand that ordinary people might have very different values, incentives and priorities to them and so declare every time that such a conflict erupts that the working classes have given in to ‘fear’ which is apparently an entirely unhealthy emotion except when they express it in histrionic fashion like they have for the last 3-4 years.
     
    They know we have different values than them. They're constantly gaslighting us to cause self doubt, fear and guilt. Usually they're really good at it, unless you know what to look for and are actively looking for it you'll miss it. Sunstein is a ham fisted amateur at it, I'm surprised he hasn't been pulled aside and told to shut up.

    Replies: @Altai

    , @SOL
    @Altai

    Rabbi, indeed.

  19. Give the poor supermarket cashier a dollar and the bagger a dollar when you go shopping.
    It would give them a nice bonus they really deserve for having to go to the worst place besides health care facilities during this shit.
    They take a lot of customers in a shift so this tiny gift, if most people would do it, would probably double or triple their meager pay.

    You should do this for full serve gas attendants all the time or go to self serve.

    • Replies: @Jehu
    @A Name or SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle

    Or give your supermarket cashier a nice new mask that your wife made with her sewing machine and abundant supplies of elastic and fabric. That's what the wife and I are doing these days when we make a grocery run. Thus far 2 out of 2 cashiers have reacted really positively.
    We've also been supplying said masks to other members of our social circle.

  20. Once again the voice of sweet reason, Mr iSteve. For that reason The Powers That Be, and the roiling masses, will presumably ignore you.

  21. @The Alarmist
    One can't escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn't do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Cagey Beast, @ChrisZ, @Muse, @AnotherDad, @guest007, @Mr. Anon

    Not just government, Alarmist. It was people in the medical profession, in my experience, who were most adamant that masks were “useless” to people seeking protection from infection. I don’t think the doctors I personally spoke with were being maliciously dishonest; I assume they were taking the “anything less the 100% might as well be 0%” stance, which is merely literal, but misguided.

    But almost certainly physicians en masse received some kind of advisory that the “masks are useless” line should be official public policy. It had the obvious character of a talking point. Whether it came from the government, or originated in the health field and was adopted/promulgated by the government, it’s hard to tell.

    BTW, as a talking point it didn’t work, even coming from doctors. I found the evidence of empty mask sections in every local drugstore more persuasive. A post Steve made about buying a mask sealed it for me, and I’ve had them on hand ever since. I’ve gotten over the initial embarassment, and now just wear one, with gloves, when I’m away from home.

  22. Anonymous[553] • Disclaimer says:

    reserve the top-of-the-line N95 masks right now for health care workers who need the most inbound self-protection

    Actually, outbound protection is as—if not more—important for health care workers as inbound.

  23. “This distinction would be good for people who want to do the right thing:”

    Not for those sane people who understand that “the right thing” is the preservation of themselves and their family.

  24. I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.

    I even asked my mother, who was a working adult, how she coped during December 1969 (when the HK’68 virus hit Europe real hard)? Answer: she never heard that there was a brutal flu ravaging her country at the time. Not then. Not now. Not in the intervening 50+ years. She learnt it from me only when I asked the question.

    I also noted that scientific papers about the 1957 and 1968 viruses are uncannily coy about R0 (contagiousness) and CFR (case fatality rate), probably because the data is incredibly noisy and hard to get. The papers focus almost exclusively on excess mortality. By country, by age group, whatever, but excess mortality. That’s not a statistic I have seen bandied about much this year, and I doubt it would look frightening.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Eustace

    "I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968."

    Yeah, this is just a variation of the idiotic "wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything" approach, which I've also seen bandied about here. By the time you get to the point where you know it's worse, it's too late to take the steps needed to limit the damage. That's the problem with exponential growth people seem to have real trouble comprehending.

    "That’s not a statistic I have seen bandied about much this year, and I doubt it would look frightening."

    Again, waiting until it "looks frightening" is really idiotic advice. I'm not saying the most likely post-verdict analysis of coronavirus isn't "nothingburger" (at least, in comparison with a bad flu season). But that's beside the point. Assuming the next hurricane won't be a category IV isn't great social policy, even though the vast majority of time that winds up being a correct assumption in hindsight.

    Once there's enough testing to ensure that this thing is going to be no worse than a bad flu season even without any safety measures taken, then fine. Go ahead full blast, or sequester just the elderly and the Iranians, or just wear masks in public. Whatever it takes to get things back to normal. But don't be an ass and wait until the damage is evident before taking measures. That's the kind of lunacy that the Communist apparatchik tools in Wuhan tried, and is the main reason we're in this mess.

    Replies: @RSDB, @Eustace

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Eustace

    This is a question it's impossible to answer now since every country is taking measures to lock down. Even if death rates are ultimately low, there will always be the point that, well, if we hadn't done anything it would have been different.

    The problem is conflating what we see on the news with actual knowledge. For example, it's not clear how much ventilators help with actual mortality. What we saw in China was a massive attempt to scale up putting people on vents and a massive attempt to keep people off vents. But actually, we don't know what would have happened if the Chinese government had done nothing. And everyone is now acting to prevent themselves becoming Wuhan. (I don't know what's going on in Italy, but neither does anyone else.)

    I don't think COVID-19 is a hoax or that we have necessarily done the wrong things, but I think we should be more circumspect at this point. We need to be serious about the cost-benefit. Otherwise, we will be in a position of having to wreck our economy every few years when novel pathogens emerge.

    Replies: @Eustace

    , @Hail
    @Eustace


    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.
     
    You are asking the right questions.

    Those of us interested in data over panic have been asking the same. And it turns out, all those who investigate this end up finding that at worst it looks rather like the 1968 flu, which was so minor as to merit people who lived through it not remembering it at all (but assuredly, many especially elderly and sick people did die of it).

    There are an increasing number of specialists and experts sounding the alarm and pointing to this being a fiasco based largely on flat-out bad data/statistics.

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    ________________

    Dr. John Lee (writing March 29), a top expert on the matter in the UK, is now openly challenging the media-mandated Panic Consensus. He makes very good points:

    https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/


    How to understand — and report — figures for ‘COVID deaths’

    Nuance is crucial — not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on health services in coming days.
     

    If you don't want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a "notably high flu season" death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.

    ____________________

    Experts, especially in Europe, and for some reason particularly Germany, are now openly opposing the shutdowns and challenging whether this CoronaPanic ever had any basis at all to have gotten anything like this far (given no worldwide media-driven panic of a few of the bad winter flu seasons in the 2010s). The latest top figure to emerge is a professor of medical microbiology in Germany. His open letter to Merkel slams the shutdown kneejerk response. Text and video:

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsExPrHCHbw

    Dr. Bhakdi appears to have seen enough data to convince him that this is being dangerously overblown. He doesn't rant, though just poses questions. Along the way, he cites a French study just published that shows, using the latest data, that there is no evidence the "novel coronavirus" is more dangerous than any of the other coronaviruses long in regular circulation.

    I previously also recommended people look to the work of Dr. Wodarg, who is on an anti-CoronaPanic crusade (see also youtube video, English subtitled).

    One hopes that data does eventually win over hysteria; if not, are we moving towards a media-administered quasi-theocracy of some kind? (I mean, more than we already were; this is madman-level stuff now; willingness to ruin lives for years to come for nothing.)

    But that Lee article (published in the Spectator US edition (see also rehosted version); expanded from a Spectator UK article some days earlier: It is a good summary of the current situation with a now fairly complete data picture emerging. Among Lee's good insights is that "total corona deaths" is increasingly going to be a really bogus:


    Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had COVID-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to COVID-19, the COVID trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by COVID-19 — would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.
     
    Meanwhile, a new Italian study says that, as suspected, 88% of those dying "with coronavirus" died of something else and the virus was simply detected in their systems (as many other viruses might be, at any given time, if testing is demanded for by a panic-pushing, bloodthirsty media); 12% of the dead died are being deemed "died of the coronavirus," and those are the same age- and condition-profile normal for susceptibility to being lost to a bad case of flu in any winter.

    I fear the pro-CoronaPanic majority may be emotionally committed by now, and it is not easy to admit they were wrong on this, but it's something we have to do, the sooner the better. I worry about an instinct to double down, triple down on the initial kneejerk reaction (as they have), which delays the return to sanity more and more, hurting us all more and more, causing many needless deaths and disrupted lives.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar, @keypusher, @Eustace, @HA

  25. @The Alarmist
    One can't escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn't do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Cagey Beast, @ChrisZ, @Muse, @AnotherDad, @guest007, @Mr. Anon

    The govt was simply trying to save healthcare worker’s lives by reserving masks for them. Reducing the rate of infection for healthcare workers is the most critical link in the chain. We can ramp up mask production in the next month or two. How long does it take to make a good pulmonologist or nurse? I am getting daily emergency phone alerts on my phone for the State of Illinois begging any available healthcare personnel to volunteer to work.

    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

    Only fools and wishful thinkers believed the government line that masks were not required. Any disease with an R0 over 3 is being transmitted through the air, therefore masks will reduce the threat.

    The long term political question is why we did not have enough masks and other critical supplies for a pandemic that was inevitable? More importantly, why do we allow politicians to promulgate trade policies that reduce the redundancy of the global supply chain by concentrating production in low cost countries that are competing with us for global and economic hegemony?

    Unsurprisingly, Trump for all his bluster and goofiness is dead right about the insane US trade and immigration policies.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Muse


    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

     

    I think this is at the heart of it. Here in HK we experienced (and to some extent are still experiencing) the pressure to try to find masks to buy when everybody suddenly realizes it's time to wear them every day. There wasn't any real violence here, but there were lots of unpleasant disputes in late January as people stormed anyplace with masks for sale, and then spent days lining up at shops hoping a new shipment would come in.

    People here are in fact still criticizing the HK government for not doing what Macau's government did, i.e. set up places where citizens could buy a limited but regular supply of masks to see them through the first days of the coronavirus crisis.

    I can't imagine what the same scenario would be like in the USA -- i.e. the whole population suddenly determined to get some masks, by whatever means necessary, and with none available.

    I sincerely hope this scenario doesn't play out in the USA at this point. Once social distancing is in place, the need for masks goes way down.

    But if the US government announces MASKS GOOD NOW, especially as people try to return to some semblance of normal life, they'd better be ready with ample supplies.

    I'm curious: are any of you in the USA trying to buy masks at this point, either N95 or surgical? Are they available anywhere?

    Replies: @SOL, @MB, @Jack D

    , @AnotherDad
    @Muse


    The long term political question is why we did not have enough masks and other critical supplies for a pandemic that was inevitable? More importantly, why do we allow politicians to promulgate trade policies that reduce the redundancy of the global supply chain by concentrating production in low cost countries that are competing with us for global and economic hegemony?

    Unsurprisingly, Trump for all his bluster and goofiness is dead right about the insane US trade and immigration policies.
     
    Spot on Muse.

    The super-state globo-goons were not even ready to handle the most obvious and embarrassing consequences of their own ideology ... because that would against globalism.

    Minoritarianism/immigrationism/globalism is a non-falsifiable religious ideology.

    Why prepare for problems with it, when we know that it is good and holy?
  26. @The Alarmist
    One can't escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn't do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Cagey Beast, @ChrisZ, @Muse, @AnotherDad, @guest007, @Mr. Anon

    One can’t escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn’t do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    We already knew that the super-state, the liberal establishment, the Democratic party hate actual white gentile Americans as they push “nation of immigrants” population replacement and preach open anti-white rhetoric.

    But i still find it maddening when some state functionaries–living well at our expense with their bennies and pensions–demonstrate their contempt for the American people with outright unabashed f.u. lying.

    Beyond all the normal personal cold+flu stuff–stay hydrated, cover your mouth when you sneeze, wash hands, don’t touch your face, humidify, chicken soup–the big three public/interpersonal asks for this were obvious:
    1) sick people stay home, no exceptions
    2) alcohol gel at entrances/exits to public buildings and work to disinfect (bleach, etc.) surfaces
    3) people wear masks in indoor public and crowded outdoor spaces

    The CDC specifically told people not to do #3.

    The CDC is a criminal organization. Really these “professionals”–the people responsible for their “planning”, the ones pushing the quarantines don’t work, the ones yapping about “stigma” and “racism”, and the ones behind this “you don’t need a mask” ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.

    • Agree: TWS
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @AnotherDad


    3) people wear masks in indoor public and crowded outdoor spaces

    The CDC specifically told people not to do #3.
     
    No, they did not. You are mischaracterizing things.

    Replies: @res

    , @DanHessinMD
    @AnotherDad

    Just yesterday, the CDC issued new guidelines that everyone should eat even more bats. I have been eating as many bats as I can based on the CDC's earlier recommendations but apparently we are not doing enough.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Jack D

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @AnotherDad

    'the ones behind this “you don’t need a mask” ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.'

    Boomer sez everyone else 'ought to' permanently rearrange their lives cuz boomer is scared. Solopsists.

    Boomers ought to be arrested and quarantined until you stop tantruming in public.

    Replies: @Ragno, @Anon, @AnotherDad

  27. what is the danger from a recombinant DNA vaccine?
    https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/sanofi-translate-bio-jump-mrna-bandwagon-to-fight-covid-19
    The material in the vaccine cannot reproduce, cannot infect a cell like a virus does. Why not administer these vaccines widely in order to determine quickly whether they work or not?

  28. If you’re using an N95 mask, just be sure to fit it snugly around your nose and to your face. There is a strip of metal over the nose that you must bend for a close fit. If you don’t do this and you have anything other than a broad nose, your breathing will suck air and droplets in through the gaps around the sides. Close all gaps around the mask.

    Wear glasses too, to keep droplets away, and to keep yourself from touching your eyes. Safety glasses from a hardware store are good for this.

    Get good and careful at removing these things. If you’re not, you can end up touching your face a lot just by struggling to get that N95 mask off. In any case, wash your hands before you do, and wash your face and hands afterwards.

    And… listen to girls in berets. They are fighters.


    Budapest 1956

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Wouldn't you prefer the girl in the beret as a lover, not a fighter?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    , @donut
    @Buzz Mohawk

    You shouldn't make a joke about those Hungarian Patriots that sacrificed so much for their country . Having promised them our support we shamefully betrayed them in keeping with our English heritage .

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

  29. Anonymous[553] • Disclaimer says:
    @AnotherDad
    @The Alarmist


    One can’t escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn’t do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.
     
    We already knew that the super-state, the liberal establishment, the Democratic party hate actual white gentile Americans as they push "nation of immigrants" population replacement and preach open anti-white rhetoric.

    But i still find it maddening when some state functionaries--living well at our expense with their bennies and pensions--demonstrate their contempt for the American people with outright unabashed f.u. lying.

    Beyond all the normal personal cold+flu stuff--stay hydrated, cover your mouth when you sneeze, wash hands, don't touch your face, humidify, chicken soup--the big three public/interpersonal asks for this were obvious:
    1) sick people stay home, no exceptions
    2) alcohol gel at entrances/exits to public buildings and work to disinfect (bleach, etc.) surfaces
    3) people wear masks in indoor public and crowded outdoor spaces

    The CDC specifically told people not to do #3.

    The CDC is a criminal organization. Really these "professionals"--the people responsible for their "planning", the ones pushing the quarantines don't work, the ones yapping about "stigma" and "racism", and the ones behind this "you don't need a mask" ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @DanHessinMD, @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    3) people wear masks in indoor public and crowded outdoor spaces

    The CDC specifically told people not to do #3.

    No, they did not. You are mischaracterizing things.

    • Replies: @res
    @Anonymous

    Really? From 2/12/2020.

    https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0212-cdc-telebriefing-transcript.html


    CDC does not currently recommend the use of face masks for the general public. This virus is not spreading in the community.
     
    Should I look for more examples? Or maybe you could present some evidence supporting your comment. That is generally good practice when accusing other people of "mischaracterizing things."

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  30. @The Alarmist
    One can't escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn't do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Cagey Beast, @ChrisZ, @Muse, @AnotherDad, @guest007, @Mr. Anon

    The difference is that medical workers are fitted with a mask from a variety of sizes, are taught had to wear it and doff it correctly, and have supervisors yelling at them to wear it correctly. If you look at most people in public, they are wearing a mask of the wrong size, are not doffing it correctly, and many times, have their nose above the mask because the mask gets wet after long wear periods. A good rule of thumb is that if the mask is every around someone’s neck for any reason, that person does not know what they are doing. Also, the mask needs to be combined with gloves to be more effective

    Masks for the public are best at keeping your germs off of other people, they do offer some protection from airborne droplets but my guess is the protection factor is somewhat less than 5.

    And last, if someone is wears an N95 mask and you do not see a bluge of neck fat around the bottom half, the wearer was not fitted properly and not wearing it properly.

  31. 128 says:

    What if something like this happened in 1998, would a poorer China respond a lot worse than now, keep in mind that Hong Kong is a major air hub. Would Clinton respond worse than Trump, his IQ is arguably higher than Trump, would the Lewinski crisis back then significantly affect government response, even back then lots of people had email and fax machines, so some degree of work from home was possible. And would could still listen to the radio or music, watch TV, or read books for months on end at your home.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @128


    would the Lewinski crisis back then significantly affect government response
     
    Would Monica, living in the Watergate Hotel, working in the Oral O[ri]ffice, and just recently out of the intern steno pool, have been a vector herself?

    HIV doesn't survive in saliva, so she was safe from that scourge.

  32. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    Stop making sense, Steve.

  33. @NickG
    Here in Pretoria, South Africa, we have been locked-down since last Thurs. I'm wearing a mask whilst out shopping at the local supermarket, which I've done once so far since Thursday. It was made by my wife from a bunch of vacuum cleaner HEPA filter bags I managed to buy.

    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks and certainly better than the packet of FFP2 masks I have at home I bought for angle grinding during the home renovations we recently did.

    A HEPA filter — high-efficiency particulate absorbing — is specified to stop 99.95% of particles of 3 microns and under.

    Short English language video from the Czech government espousing universal mask usage — How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus?

    Replies: @wren, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Mr McKenna, @unit472, @Jack D, @Father O'Hara

    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks

    The filtration may be as good or even better. However, there is a trade-off between filtration and breathability – vac bags are made with the assumption that a powerful electric blower is going to be sucking the air thru, not a set of human lungs.

    N95s are molded to fit the face and have metal nose clips and gaskets in order to form a seal. Any homemade mask is going to leak around the edges. The more impermeable the filter material is, the more you are going to bypass the filter and suck air from around the edges.

    Any homemade mask is going to be better than nothing. But N95s are better if you can get them.

    Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out, in fact eager to get rid of them because they stockpiled billions of them to prepare for the epidemics that did not come outside of Hubei Province. Some are coming out now by air but large #’s should start showing up by container ship in the next few weeks.

    • Replies: @Coemgen
    @Jack D


    Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control
     
    My wife say's that's old news now. Independent Chinese language media are reporting that martial law is being re-enacted in China (including Beijing and Shanghai) due to an increase in COVID-19 infections after the Chinese government eased up on travel restrictions. I haven't seen this reported in Western media (yet).

    Replies: @Anon

    , @Muggles
    @Jack D

    >>Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out,<<

    Not to be a broken record here, but why is "news" about the wonderful success the Communist Chinese have achieved being repeated and trumpeted as fact? I hope it is true. But what other news do iSteve readers eagerly swallow that is "apparently" true from only one unverified government source?

    Readers here are notoriously skeptical and cynical (beyond belief) about anything the US government says about anything. Or the CDC or any federally funded source. Zero acceptance of what is said, absent outside verification. Yet in China there is zero independent verification or non governmental reporting about the pandemic or anything else. ZERO! No non Chinese are permitted to access basic facts or even interview doctors/scientists or average citizens.

    This is a clearly irrational methodology. The US govt for all of its many flaws doesn't employ, like CCCP controlled China, literally hundreds of thousands of Internet censors or print/TV/radio censors. Do folks here not know that? Why believe them at face value? You get arrested there for violating the Party Line. Or disappeared.

    Does anyone with any sense invest in Chinese businesses absent listings on Western stock exchanges which mandate First World accounting and auditing procedures?

    There is an odd bias, which I see even on libertarian and conservative blogs, which faithfully repeats Chinese "news" while sneering at anything the FDA/CDC says. This appears to be an historical artifact of getting objective criticism of US govt policies from foreign news sources. Even Communist ones, which don't lie about US problems. But that policy doesn't extend to Chinese or Russian analysis of their own government's actions. Consistency of skepticism is required!

    Replies: @Peterike, @SOL

  34. People were a lot less PC in 1998, so how would that help? But back in the late 90s in took days to get tested, but then if in doubt you can just implement a city-wide quarantine, which was possible even back in 1918.

  35. “Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out, in fact eager to get rid of them because they stockpiled billions of them to prepare for the epidemics that did not come…”

    Excellent! So no need at all for the US to worry about self-sufficiency, just leave it all to the magic of the global market!

    *insert gif of stereotypical Chinaman rubbing his hands*

  36. @Altai
    Has Steve seen the Cass Sunstein turnabout.

    https://unherd.com/2020/03/dont-trust-the-psychologists-on-coronavirus/

    Much of the useful advice behavioural scientists can give isn’t really based on “science” to any important degree, and is intuitive and obvious.

    Where they try to be counter-intuitive — for instance, arguing that people are wrong to find a global pandemic frightening — they simply end up embarrassing themselves, or worse, endangering people by having them make fewer pandemic preparations.
     
    https://twitter.com/AriSchulman/status/1243552405075251200

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cass_Sunstein#2019-2020_Coronavirus_pandemic

    He argued that “most people in North America and Europe do not need to worry much about the risk of contracting the disease.” In his view, there was “no adequate reason” to change travel plans or other socioeconomic behaviors, since they risk “plummeting stock prices.” In the face of this, Sunstein urged calm and cautioned leaders to weigh the costs of merely potentially saving lives against the actual costs of falling prices in corporate equities. He blamed this tendency to view possibly saving lives as better than actually saving money on "probability neglect," a term that he invented.
     
    Sunstein is a constitutional lawyer, so what he knows about such subjects or is able to learn in his twilight years is beyond me.

    Sunstein seems like somebody who would have been better suited to have become a Rabbi or a doctor rather than a public intellectual. He seems to just get off on preaching to 'little people' and could have done so in those fields with relatively little harm. He couldn't even get enough of it as a constitutional scholar. America seems particularly suffice with such people.

    But I think it's just another manifestation of the narcissism of modern elites who don't understand that ordinary people might have very different values, incentives and priorities to them and so declare every time that such a conflict erupts that the working classes have given in to 'fear' which is apparently an entirely unhealthy emotion except when they express it in histrionic fashion like they have for the last 3-4 years. Like how doctors don't have unions, they have 'associations', the urban anywhere people (Ikea people: https://jacobitemag.com/2017/09/13/the-ikea-humans-the-social-base-of-contemporary-liberalism/) don't feel fear, they feel 'concern'.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Lugash, @SOL

    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite. Whatever deplorables believe, they believe the opposite. If, two weeks ago deplorables were afraid, they were bravely fearless. If deplorables are foolishly unafraid today, they are rightfully fearful. If a month ago Trump said close the borders , they wanted them open. If Trump says open the borders , they want them closed.Trump is always evil and wrong so whatever he says is, by definition wrong and must be opposed.

    Sleepy Joe was not looking good before this all started, but Wuhan Virus is a terrific opportunity for the Left. Never let a crisis go to waste. They are positively rooting for the epidemic to run out of control so that it can be blamed on Trump. BTW, what is the correlation between the level of epidemic and voting “blue”? NYC voted 4 to 1 for Hillary.

    William F. Buckley’s pronouncement that he would rather have the US ruled by random names picked from the phonebook than by the Harvard faculty is more true than ever.

    • Agree: Coemgen, Polynikes
    • Replies: @Altai
    @Jack D

    Right, when Trump was being proactive and actually managed to forestall an outbreak in North America (And likely the wider world. When all the LSE type academics were crowing about how this wouldn't work for some reason) with travel bans they were running around saying it was all hysteria. When Trump fails to bring the hammer down fast enough on flights on even Milan, let alone other cities in Europe, suddenly it's all very important.

    It's amazing how Trump turns them all into petulant defiant teenagers.

    It's such a missed opportunity for Trump too, weird.

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D


    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite.
     
    I agree to some extent, but this is something to do with our media. Some years ago there was a broadcasting regulation that in political discussions both sides of any argument had to be given equal time, which meant that you would have a lot of nutcases brought onto TV to make fringe arguments, rather than bringing on wise and experienced people who were well-informed about the pros and cons of any particular issue.

    When this regulation came to an end, I applauded it. But unfortunately it has turned out that instead of leading to more balanced and sensible debate, it simply led to a polarization of different media that would tailor the news for different markets and feed people whatever they wanted to hear.

    Hence the Murdoch media, which include Fox TV News push the "forever Trump" point of view at every opportunity, even when the president tells lies and exercises poor judgment, and on the other side you have CNN, which is owned by AT&T, adopting the "never Trump" angle at every opportunity, even when the president tells the truth and shows good judgment.

    Each side has its champion knights in armor. Fox New has Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson wearing the Trump colors, and CNN has Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper as its white knights sporting the favors of The Rest.

    Everything becomes polarized and simplified. Every day it is all about Trump, did he tell the truth, did he lie, ad nauseam.

    Really in a time of a health crisis the news media should be telling us what people all over this vast nation are doing to address the crisis.

    What the Department of Health and Human Services is doing, what the CDC is doing, how Medicare is addressing the added challenges, talking to the highly paid executives of health insurance companies and hospital corporations, to whom we are legally obliged to pay health insurance premiums to find out how THEY are addressing the increased demand for services, the governors of states most affected to find out what influences their thinking and planning, to hospital executive to find out what they are doing, and how their states may be most affected.

    Instead everything is all about Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand. Leave the old bugger alone, for gods sake! Report on what is really going on and stop making it about Trump.

    Replies: @peterike, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @res, @Charles Erwin Wilson's phone

    , @Christopher Paul
    @Jack D


    BTW, what is the correlation between the level of epidemic and voting “blue”?
     
    A value close to 1.
  37. @Redneck farmer
    Seems like a reasonable compromise, so a lot of people won't do it.

    Replies: @John Cunningham

    Here’s a totally logical solution: 3 categories of competition. Males, females, and psychotic sexual freaks. Problem solved.

  38. @The Alarmist
    One can't escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn't do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.

    Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Cagey Beast, @ChrisZ, @Muse, @AnotherDad, @guest007, @Mr. Anon

    Yes, the obvious question to me is why should we trust Anthony Fauci and other public health professionals who looked us in the eye and told us such an obvious, brazen lie? Why should we trust them now? Why should we ever trust them again?

    There are other epidemiologists. Fauci and Birx are not the only ones. Does anyone really think that they are top people because they have risen to the top of the federal bureaucracy?

  39. Wow! That’s the Czech Minister of Health? Why doesn’t the U.S. have hot cabinet secretaries like that? Why don’t U.S. cabinet secretaries who wear berets? The accent just slays me.

    Edit: Maybe the Minister is the guy at the end?

    • Agree: TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Anon

    This is the Czech Minister of Health sans mask.

    https://www.mzcr.cz/Admin/_upload/images/1/janbranc_com%20-7104.JPG


    https://www.mzcr.cz/dokumenty/ministr-zdravotnictvi_13034_841_1.html

  40. @Jack D
    @NickG


    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks
     
    The filtration may be as good or even better. However, there is a trade-off between filtration and breathability - vac bags are made with the assumption that a powerful electric blower is going to be sucking the air thru, not a set of human lungs.

    N95s are molded to fit the face and have metal nose clips and gaskets in order to form a seal. Any homemade mask is going to leak around the edges. The more impermeable the filter material is, the more you are going to bypass the filter and suck air from around the edges.

    Any homemade mask is going to be better than nothing. But N95s are better if you can get them.

    Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out, in fact eager to get rid of them because they stockpiled billions of them to prepare for the epidemics that did not come outside of Hubei Province. Some are coming out now by air but large #'s should start showing up by container ship in the next few weeks.

    Replies: @Coemgen, @Muggles

    Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control

    My wife say’s that’s old news now. Independent Chinese language media are reporting that martial law is being re-enacted in China (including Beijing and Shanghai) due to an increase in COVID-19 infections after the Chinese government eased up on travel restrictions. I haven’t seen this reported in Western media (yet).

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Coemgen

    If the Chinese freak out every time they have a batch of 100 Covid deaths pop up, they'll have martial law for years.

    Not that Chinese every had much of any other sort of law. Soon, even the Chinese will be extremely tired of their leaders. The Communist elite can't take away everyone's jobs and ability to buy food for years on end without a massive social eruption.

  41. Sailer blog does a great job of moderation. The average comment here is more informative or entertaining than in blog threads elsewhere. The remainder of Unz.com has as many different types of neighborhoods as a good-sized city. Ron Unz’s American Pravda has become the most deranged and menacing. It’s both sad and just that his feral pets are turning on him. He is now being attacked for having an orthodox opinion about the seriousness of Covid-19 hazard. The anti-Semites denounce him for covering up the “Jew flu,” and the libertarians denounce him as Hitlerian.

  42. @Altai
    Has Steve seen the Cass Sunstein turnabout.

    https://unherd.com/2020/03/dont-trust-the-psychologists-on-coronavirus/

    Much of the useful advice behavioural scientists can give isn’t really based on “science” to any important degree, and is intuitive and obvious.

    Where they try to be counter-intuitive — for instance, arguing that people are wrong to find a global pandemic frightening — they simply end up embarrassing themselves, or worse, endangering people by having them make fewer pandemic preparations.
     
    https://twitter.com/AriSchulman/status/1243552405075251200

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cass_Sunstein#2019-2020_Coronavirus_pandemic

    He argued that “most people in North America and Europe do not need to worry much about the risk of contracting the disease.” In his view, there was “no adequate reason” to change travel plans or other socioeconomic behaviors, since they risk “plummeting stock prices.” In the face of this, Sunstein urged calm and cautioned leaders to weigh the costs of merely potentially saving lives against the actual costs of falling prices in corporate equities. He blamed this tendency to view possibly saving lives as better than actually saving money on "probability neglect," a term that he invented.
     
    Sunstein is a constitutional lawyer, so what he knows about such subjects or is able to learn in his twilight years is beyond me.

    Sunstein seems like somebody who would have been better suited to have become a Rabbi or a doctor rather than a public intellectual. He seems to just get off on preaching to 'little people' and could have done so in those fields with relatively little harm. He couldn't even get enough of it as a constitutional scholar. America seems particularly suffice with such people.

    But I think it's just another manifestation of the narcissism of modern elites who don't understand that ordinary people might have very different values, incentives and priorities to them and so declare every time that such a conflict erupts that the working classes have given in to 'fear' which is apparently an entirely unhealthy emotion except when they express it in histrionic fashion like they have for the last 3-4 years. Like how doctors don't have unions, they have 'associations', the urban anywhere people (Ikea people: https://jacobitemag.com/2017/09/13/the-ikea-humans-the-social-base-of-contemporary-liberalism/) don't feel fear, they feel 'concern'.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Lugash, @SOL

    But I think it’s just another manifestation of the narcissism of modern elites who don’t understand that ordinary people might have very different values, incentives and priorities to them and so declare every time that such a conflict erupts that the working classes have given in to ‘fear’ which is apparently an entirely unhealthy emotion except when they express it in histrionic fashion like they have for the last 3-4 years.

    They know we have different values than them. They’re constantly gaslighting us to cause self doubt, fear and guilt. Usually they’re really good at it, unless you know what to look for and are actively looking for it you’ll miss it. Sunstein is a ham fisted amateur at it, I’m surprised he hasn’t been pulled aside and told to shut up.

    • Replies: @Altai
    @Lugash

    I mean, Brett Stephens still gets prime slots to unleash his id. They really have forced such a long-standing expression of false preferences and siloed themselves (Ironically something Sunstein wrote a whole book about in the early 2000s about the internet leading to ideological echo chambers) that they really do think 'What's best for General Motors is what's best for America'.

  43. All the girlies say:

    Masks make me feel pretty, oh so pretty.

    Masks let everybody enjoy my creativity and my virtue.

    We ❤ you CoronaHoax

  44. She’s cute. Good marketing to have her making the pitch.

    But in the end, what Czechia badly needs from her is … babies.

    This new Chinese virus will kill a bunch of people–mostly old and/or sick. But while it may be personally scary it is no threat to nations or civilization.

    The threat Western Christian civilization faces remains the same–allowing in foreign invaders and not having babies.

    This new Chinese virus will have absolutely no impact on my children’s and their children’s future. But the demographics of their fellow citizens will be critical in determining what sort of nation they live in.

    • Agree: TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @Jack D
    @AnotherDad

    That's really apropos of nothing. For all I know, that young woman is a mother of three. I doubt it, but I have no idea either way.

    BUT, the vital message that she is sending is 100% correct and 100% opposite to the advice that the CDC was giving and is STILL being ignored. I want Trump and Fauci and Pence and everyone to come out wearing their masks (just like Xi did in China). It's easy to police since the masks are so damn obvious. In Asia you can't get 3 steps down the street without someone yelling at you if you go out without your mask. What are you trying to do, kill us all? The public service message has to be that masks are not for YOU, they are to protect everyone else and you are a selfish bastard if you go out without one.

    I completely understand (though thoroughly disagree) with why they were lying to us about N95s, but homemade masks were always (and still are) completely within reach and are highly effective in stopping outgoing transmission and at least somewhat effective regarding incoming. Rather than locking everyone, old and young, in their homes, we could have probably reduced the level of the epidemic greatly (especially in crowded places like NY) if we had adopted universal mask wearing early.

    It's still not too late, but this young woman's message is STILL being ignored. She has convinced me - the next time I have to go out (and staying in is better still) I'm wearing a mask (and glasses) and I am not going to stop wearing one in public until the epidemic has fully abated. I don't care how dorky it looks - looking cool is not worth risking your life. Everyone - take the mask pledge! I think this could shift very quickly from the point where it is unthinkable to be seen wearing a mask in public (even now people still report that they get shit when they go out wearing one) to the opposite.

    Replies: @Thea, @guest007, @AnotherDad

    , @Stan d Mute
    @AnotherDad


    This new Chinese virus will have absolutely no impact on my children’s and their children’s future.
     
    The virus might have improved the prospects for your children by separating geezers from their wealth before the healthcare system could bleed their accounts dry.

    Now, however, your children will face a devastated economy and crushing public debt beyond anything the world has seen previously.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  45. I rewatched Soderbergh’s Contagion last weekend.

    One thing I found amusing was that at a certain point everybody on the street was wearing a mask.

    As if that were possible. Where’d they buy them, I wonder?

    We’re not really good at imagining the future. How many futuristic depictions of the twenty first century showed people walking around with cellphones?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    We’re not really good at imagining the future. How many futuristic depictions of the twenty first century showed people walking around with cellphones?


    https://d14e8oeg5e788p.cloudfront.net/content/54555/19f5f7db3105e59424b25a01a53c715f.jpg

    In 2001: A Space Odyssey (made in 1968), the guys Facetime on their iPads:

    http://www.geekologie.com/2011/08/24/ipads-in-space-odyssey.jpg

    I would say that Kubrick came pretty damn close.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous

  46. After the dust settles, masks will become more socially acceptable. Right now it’s nice to talk about them but too few currently exist.

  47. @Clyde
    Masks are good. They reduce the viral loads being dispersed by the virus infected. But you will be a reject if you are the only one wearing one. Intelligent people will give you a wide berth.
    South Koreans have been the most successful, I bet they have been producing millions of N95s right at home for at least 6 weeks. Ever since that crazy ass Shincheonjigot church got lots of Koreans infected or dead. The wacky man who heads it up is 88 with perfectly black (dyed) hair and bills himself as Messiah.

    Replies: @wren, @Chrisnonymous, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Jenner Ickham Errican

    “Masks are good.”

    Helmets are better.

    Hazmat suits are bestest.

    Everyone gear up. For the children. Wait, I mean for the boomers. Yet another reason to love CoronaHoax: for once, the fakestream media don’t even bother mewling that it’s for the children.

  48. Anon[215] • Disclaimer says:

    OT

    A book came out a while back called The Meritocracy Trap, written by a Yale law professor. I didn’t pay much attention to it.

    Today I watched a video from Wellesley College where the professor, Daneil Markovits, discusses the topic with Brown University economist Glenn Loury. Loury is a really sharp conservative, but unfortunately he had not read the book, so he was not such an effective opponent.

    But this Markovits guy shocked me. The guy does not buy into IQ tests or the SAT and thinks that the reason blacks and the poor do don’t do well in school is because of problems in their education and how they are raised and encouraged by parents. He implies that if equity is not achieved in other ways it may be necessary to “interfere” in “sacrosant” aspects of the family. I think he’s saying that kids would be taken away to be exposed to a better environment or something. He says that before that what could be tried is preventing rich parents from sending their kids to expensive day care. He claims that it is a crime in Berlin for day care companies to spend over a certain amount. So the idea is to make whites dumber to achieve equity. (Of course, smart kids are not made smarter by expensive day care, nor are they made dumber by going to normal day care.) Later he cites Marx on some principle that in a just society that people with extraordinary talents would not be able to express them for the good of all.

    He has this creepy idea that students in college should be evaluated on whether they achieve excellence in pursuing the good, not superiority in pursuing the not good. The idea is a threshold, above which there would be no distinguishing people, and this threshold, the things that are good, and who has reached that status would be determined not by standardized testing, but by … who? Him and his friends?

    He talks about how there is no need for doctors or other professionals to be better than a certain qualifying level. If they are too smart, they just complicate things, making the world less efficient.

    Normally I would laugh this guy off. But he is a Yale law professor (not even a studies professor), and weirder stuff has gone mainstream in the last few years. He’s quite scary. (Before and after around 24:00 and 47:00 are representative.)

  49. @AnotherDad
    @The Alarmist


    One can’t escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn’t do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.
     
    We already knew that the super-state, the liberal establishment, the Democratic party hate actual white gentile Americans as they push "nation of immigrants" population replacement and preach open anti-white rhetoric.

    But i still find it maddening when some state functionaries--living well at our expense with their bennies and pensions--demonstrate their contempt for the American people with outright unabashed f.u. lying.

    Beyond all the normal personal cold+flu stuff--stay hydrated, cover your mouth when you sneeze, wash hands, don't touch your face, humidify, chicken soup--the big three public/interpersonal asks for this were obvious:
    1) sick people stay home, no exceptions
    2) alcohol gel at entrances/exits to public buildings and work to disinfect (bleach, etc.) surfaces
    3) people wear masks in indoor public and crowded outdoor spaces

    The CDC specifically told people not to do #3.

    The CDC is a criminal organization. Really these "professionals"--the people responsible for their "planning", the ones pushing the quarantines don't work, the ones yapping about "stigma" and "racism", and the ones behind this "you don't need a mask" ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @DanHessinMD, @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Just yesterday, the CDC issued new guidelines that everyone should eat even more bats. I have been eating as many bats as I can based on the CDC’s earlier recommendations but apparently we are not doing enough.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    @DanHessinMD

    "Swallow it laughing."

    https://www.theonion.com/new-nietzschean-diet-lets-you-eat-whatever-you-fear-mos-1819567279

    , @Jack D
    @DanHessinMD

    https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wnSovuEZiXA/Xn-NkjpvqFI/AAAAAAAAb8c/setAZZwuGUQkZgHropaNKSbKbPP0OC8YgCK8BGAsYHg/s0/2020-03-28.png

  50. @candid_observer
    I rewatched Soderbergh's Contagion last weekend.

    One thing I found amusing was that at a certain point everybody on the street was wearing a mask.

    As if that were possible. Where'd they buy them, I wonder?

    We're not really good at imagining the future. How many futuristic depictions of the twenty first century showed people walking around with cellphones?

    Replies: @Jack D

    We’re not really good at imagining the future. How many futuristic depictions of the twenty first century showed people walking around with cellphones?


    In 2001: A Space Odyssey (made in 1968), the guys Facetime on their iPads:

    I would say that Kubrick came pretty damn close.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Jack D

    Heinlein wrote a mobile phone into the opening scene of "Space Cadet" around 1950 -- the hero is riding his horse out on the range in New Mexico when he gets a phone call that sets the plot in motion. But I can't recall too many other uses of mobile phones in subsequent Heinlein novels.

    Mobile phones were a challenge for plot construction into the 21st century. The first movie I can recall where mobile phones were fully integrated into the plot without being the main aspect of the plot was "The Departed" in 2006.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    , @Anonymous
    @Jack D

    He probably got that from Arthur C. Clarke. There's a video on YouTube of Clarke on TV in the 1960s predicting a lot of this stuff.

  51. @Lugash
    @Altai


    But I think it’s just another manifestation of the narcissism of modern elites who don’t understand that ordinary people might have very different values, incentives and priorities to them and so declare every time that such a conflict erupts that the working classes have given in to ‘fear’ which is apparently an entirely unhealthy emotion except when they express it in histrionic fashion like they have for the last 3-4 years.
     
    They know we have different values than them. They're constantly gaslighting us to cause self doubt, fear and guilt. Usually they're really good at it, unless you know what to look for and are actively looking for it you'll miss it. Sunstein is a ham fisted amateur at it, I'm surprised he hasn't been pulled aside and told to shut up.

    Replies: @Altai

    I mean, Brett Stephens still gets prime slots to unleash his id. They really have forced such a long-standing expression of false preferences and siloed themselves (Ironically something Sunstein wrote a whole book about in the early 2000s about the internet leading to ideological echo chambers) that they really do think ‘What’s best for General Motors is what’s best for America’.

  52. Checked the Walgreens near me in Chicago and asked the clerk: “Do you have masks” and pointed at the mask she was wearing.

    Shook her head: “No.”

    All the Walgreens people wearing masks; the two Black people delivering and stocking the soda pop shelves were NOT wearing masks.

  53. @AnotherDad
    @The Alarmist


    One can’t escape the fact that our government lied to us and told us N95 masks wouldn’t do any good for the common folk while at the same time telling us they were necessary for medical staff.
     
    We already knew that the super-state, the liberal establishment, the Democratic party hate actual white gentile Americans as they push "nation of immigrants" population replacement and preach open anti-white rhetoric.

    But i still find it maddening when some state functionaries--living well at our expense with their bennies and pensions--demonstrate their contempt for the American people with outright unabashed f.u. lying.

    Beyond all the normal personal cold+flu stuff--stay hydrated, cover your mouth when you sneeze, wash hands, don't touch your face, humidify, chicken soup--the big three public/interpersonal asks for this were obvious:
    1) sick people stay home, no exceptions
    2) alcohol gel at entrances/exits to public buildings and work to disinfect (bleach, etc.) surfaces
    3) people wear masks in indoor public and crowded outdoor spaces

    The CDC specifically told people not to do #3.

    The CDC is a criminal organization. Really these "professionals"--the people responsible for their "planning", the ones pushing the quarantines don't work, the ones yapping about "stigma" and "racism", and the ones behind this "you don't need a mask" ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @DanHessinMD, @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    ‘the ones behind this “you don’t need a mask” ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.’

    Boomer sez everyone else ‘ought to’ permanently rearrange their lives cuz boomer is scared. Solopsists.

    Boomers ought to be arrested and quarantined until you stop tantruming in public.

    • Replies: @Ragno
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Before I comment - can we kindly call a moratorium on the die, Boomer, die hot take? I mean considering our host here is (loud stage whisper) a Boomer himself! I got into this with that supremely-annoying (though generally worth reading) Vox Day, in which I pointed out that mf'ers born in 1968 are whistling past the graveyard when they call for no mercy on all mf'ers born in 1964. (His response was to ban me "forever". Well, that's one way to win an argument.)

    Now - masks. Frankly, I'm getting whiplash from the sundry Trusted Authorities insisting Wear One At All Times/Don't Wear One, They Don't Protect You. I personally can't stand them - the N95s trigger my claustrophobia something fierce, and even in a supermarket (such as the one I was in this morning) I could only handle wearing it 4 or 5 minutes at a time before sliding it down past my chin. Thankfully, most of the time I'm outdoors these days, I'm on a bike path adjacent to a large body of water, so between the distance between riders/joggers and a healthy wind coming in off the bay, I don't need or wear one....hallelujah. I know the cloth ones are supposedly woefully inadequate to the task but they sure look a lot less confining to wear - now if only I could buy one without having to watch some Baruch Feldheim* moisten his beak in the process.


    * https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/

    Replies: @V. Hickel

    , @Anon
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    What is your problem, you weenie-ass snowflake? Daddy issues? Some 50,000 of my “boomer” cohort died a violent death in Vietnam. But you guys? Boo effing hoo, we couldn’t go to our sex-and-drugs orgy at the beach because of you old farts.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @AnotherDad
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Boomer sez everyone else ‘ought to’ permanently rearrange their lives cuz boomer is scared. Solopsists.

    Boomers ought to be arrested and quarantined until you stop tantruming in public.
     

    JSOM--

    I've explained repeatedly in my comments, this boomer is not particularly scared precisely because this thing is not very lethal to young healthy people like my kids. It ain't 1918.

    I do however expect "public health" authorities--living comfortably with cushy bennies and lush pensions courtesy of our tax dollars--to ... do the effing jobs! And certainly not outright lie to people about effective public health measures.

    ~

    But more on point--you should dial in political reality.

    It's a more feminized, risk averse nation, with more continuous information flow to jack up anxiety. Politicians can't handle the "tens of thousands dead" even though 2.7 million Americans die every year, so that's 8000 a day dying from something. That's just the reality.

    So if you're missing your chance to pickup drunk chicks in the club ... sorry, but that's off the table until this is reined in.

    But if you simply think the lockdown is over the top and want it lifted ASAP, then instead of tantrums on cringing boomers think it through. How can that end?

    It can end when it can be lifted and this epidemic still controlled with other less invasive public health measures. Oh, like what i'm suggesting--bitching about--wearing masks. If we have public mask wearing during epidemics like this--with respiratory spread a vector--then we can dial back the more obnoxious stuff.

    If you're just too darn cool to wear a mask--fine. But then expect this tedious police statey stuff to linger on and on and on.

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen

  54. @Jack D
    @Altai

    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite. Whatever deplorables believe, they believe the opposite. If, two weeks ago deplorables were afraid, they were bravely fearless. If deplorables are foolishly unafraid today, they are rightfully fearful. If a month ago Trump said close the borders , they wanted them open. If Trump says open the borders , they want them closed.Trump is always evil and wrong so whatever he says is, by definition wrong and must be opposed.

    Sleepy Joe was not looking good before this all started, but Wuhan Virus is a terrific opportunity for the Left. Never let a crisis go to waste. They are positively rooting for the epidemic to run out of control so that it can be blamed on Trump. BTW, what is the correlation between the level of epidemic and voting "blue"? NYC voted 4 to 1 for Hillary.

    William F. Buckley's pronouncement that he would rather have the US ruled by random names picked from the phonebook than by the Harvard faculty is more true than ever.

    Replies: @Altai, @Jonathan Mason, @Christopher Paul

    Right, when Trump was being proactive and actually managed to forestall an outbreak in North America (And likely the wider world. When all the LSE type academics were crowing about how this wouldn’t work for some reason) with travel bans they were running around saying it was all hysteria. When Trump fails to bring the hammer down fast enough on flights on even Milan, let alone other cities in Europe, suddenly it’s all very important.

    It’s amazing how Trump turns them all into petulant defiant teenagers.

    It’s such a missed opportunity for Trump too, weird.

  55. Does the FDA control lawn care masks?

  56. Russia is once again interfering in US democracy by sending us a planeload of medical supplies that we can't produce for ourselves because we have no industrial capacity. Thankfully, Trump colluded with Putin in order to get these supplies https://t.co/T9ZGbGZDaf— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) April 1, 2020

  57. anon[106] • Disclaimer says:

    It’s amazing how Trump turns them all into petulant defiant teenagers.

    Libtards have always been that way. Especially Boomers. It just wasn’t as obvious Before Trump (BT).

    Srsly, libtardism is one long “F-U, DAD“. Not just the 60’s, read Truman Capote – “In Cold Blood” is still required in a lotta high schools even in Current Year – that mincing faggot’s problems are so obvious. Margaret Atwood? Phil Roth? The list goes on, and it’s all about some fragile libtard having issues with Daddy. Same for their playwrights, like Eugene O’Neil.

    Spoiled brat insecure teens who want the “cool kidz” to like them, who pretend to BE the “kool kidz”. Sunstein is a fine example, but he’s hardly the only one. Overage adolescents, that’s all libtards are.

    Especially the ones who “f’ing luv science”.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @anon


    Phil Roth? The list goes on, and it’s all about some fragile libtard having issues with Daddy
     
    By all accounts (especially Roth's own) he had a happy loving childhood and a great relationship with his parents for as long as they lived. He admired his father so much that he wrote a book about him. And his parents felt the same way - Roth told a story about how when Portnoy's Complaint came out, he sent his parents on a cruise with his newfound riches and his father brought a pile of the books with him on the trip and every time they became friendly with another couple on the cruise, he gave them a copy of the book, autographed from Philip Roth's father. I don't know about those other guys but you're barking up the wrong tree when it comes to Roth.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    , @Charon
    @anon


    Truman Capote – “In Cold Blood” is still required in a lotta high schools even in Current Year
     
    Well that's certainly crying out for a cite.

    Replies: @keypusher, @anon

    , @AnotherDad
    @anon

    Outing another--i'll just say it--"moron" who doesn't know what a "boomer" is. Yep, we passed the Civil Rights Act, reopened immigration in 65, demanded mandatory busing, amnestied the illegals in '86 (that damn boomer Reagan!).

    That mincing faggot Capote was even born a bit before my dad. Margaret Atwood isn't a boomer either. Nor is Philip Roth. You're 0-3. Sounds like your issue is with Silent generation types.

    If you just mean "everyone older than me sucks!" ... just say it.

    But then, if you want to find someone with daddy issues ... look in the mirror.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @anon

  58. @AnotherDad
    She's cute. Good marketing to have her making the pitch.

    But in the end, what Czechia badly needs from her is ... babies.

    This new Chinese virus will kill a bunch of people--mostly old and/or sick. But while it may be personally scary it is no threat to nations or civilization.

    The threat Western Christian civilization faces remains the same--allowing in foreign invaders and not having babies.

    This new Chinese virus will have absolutely no impact on my children's and their children's future. But the demographics of their fellow citizens will be critical in determining what sort of nation they live in.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Stan d Mute

    That’s really apropos of nothing. For all I know, that young woman is a mother of three. I doubt it, but I have no idea either way.

    BUT, the vital message that she is sending is 100% correct and 100% opposite to the advice that the CDC was giving and is STILL being ignored. I want Trump and Fauci and Pence and everyone to come out wearing their masks (just like Xi did in China). It’s easy to police since the masks are so damn obvious. In Asia you can’t get 3 steps down the street without someone yelling at you if you go out without your mask. What are you trying to do, kill us all? The public service message has to be that masks are not for YOU, they are to protect everyone else and you are a selfish bastard if you go out without one.

    I completely understand (though thoroughly disagree) with why they were lying to us about N95s, but homemade masks were always (and still are) completely within reach and are highly effective in stopping outgoing transmission and at least somewhat effective regarding incoming. Rather than locking everyone, old and young, in their homes, we could have probably reduced the level of the epidemic greatly (especially in crowded places like NY) if we had adopted universal mask wearing early.

    It’s still not too late, but this young woman’s message is STILL being ignored. She has convinced me – the next time I have to go out (and staying in is better still) I’m wearing a mask (and glasses) and I am not going to stop wearing one in public until the epidemic has fully abated. I don’t care how dorky it looks – looking cool is not worth risking your life. Everyone – take the mask pledge! I think this could shift very quickly from the point where it is unthinkable to be seen wearing a mask in public (even now people still report that they get shit when they go out wearing one) to the opposite.

    • Replies: @Thea
    @Jack D

    They get shit Due to jealousy over the shortage of masks. Manufacturing more will alleviate the problem.

    I went to Walgreens in late February and masks were already gone. Weeks before most realistic what was going on.

    , @guest007
    @Jack D

    How would all of those masks worked in a crowded bar on St Patricks day or during Brunch. Masks help because they make social distance and isolation more effective but they are not a replacement.

    And no matter what happens on masks, they will not get the local restaurants or bars open. At best masks would help get production and logistics facilities open, operating at a higher level, and make the workers feel safer. However, masks only work if everyone is using them and using them correctly.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @AnotherDad
    @Jack D

    That’s really apropos of nothing.
     

    It's apropos of perspective. A good thing to have as everyone, you, me--even Steve--obsess over this latest gift from China.

    It's interesting how jazz up people can get about this thing... but utterly un-jazzed up about stuff that really, really matters--the Wall, E-verify, ending TPS, the refugee racket, immigration moratorium--that will profoundly affect their children's, their posterity's future.

    The supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils. In seeking to do so, it encounters obstacles which are deeply rooted in human nature.

    One is that by the very order of things such evils are not demonstrable until they have occurred: at each stage in their onset there is room for doubt and for dispute whether they be real or imaginary. By the same token, they attract little attention in comparison with current troubles, which are both indisputable and pressing: whence the besetting temptation of all politics to concern itself with the immediate present at the expense of the future.
     

    ~~~

    On masks -- you're not even "preaching to the converted". Check my comment history ... i've been bitching about this mask nonsense since day one.

    AnotherMom's sewing maching has been whirring this whole month. And, in fact, right now she's walked over to post office to ship some KN95s--that we just got courtesy of her manufacturer in China--plus some of her own masks to a sister-in-law who is undergoing chemo and really at risk. Apparently she goes to the hospital and they actually do not even give her the typical patient mask.

    This is a cluster of amazing magnitude. Ought to be renamed CDP--Center for Disease Propagation.

    Replies: @obwandiyag, @V. Hickel

  59. @Jack D
    @Altai

    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite. Whatever deplorables believe, they believe the opposite. If, two weeks ago deplorables were afraid, they were bravely fearless. If deplorables are foolishly unafraid today, they are rightfully fearful. If a month ago Trump said close the borders , they wanted them open. If Trump says open the borders , they want them closed.Trump is always evil and wrong so whatever he says is, by definition wrong and must be opposed.

    Sleepy Joe was not looking good before this all started, but Wuhan Virus is a terrific opportunity for the Left. Never let a crisis go to waste. They are positively rooting for the epidemic to run out of control so that it can be blamed on Trump. BTW, what is the correlation between the level of epidemic and voting "blue"? NYC voted 4 to 1 for Hillary.

    William F. Buckley's pronouncement that he would rather have the US ruled by random names picked from the phonebook than by the Harvard faculty is more true than ever.

    Replies: @Altai, @Jonathan Mason, @Christopher Paul

    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite.

    I agree to some extent, but this is something to do with our media. Some years ago there was a broadcasting regulation that in political discussions both sides of any argument had to be given equal time, which meant that you would have a lot of nutcases brought onto TV to make fringe arguments, rather than bringing on wise and experienced people who were well-informed about the pros and cons of any particular issue.

    When this regulation came to an end, I applauded it. But unfortunately it has turned out that instead of leading to more balanced and sensible debate, it simply led to a polarization of different media that would tailor the news for different markets and feed people whatever they wanted to hear.

    Hence the Murdoch media, which include Fox TV News push the “forever Trump” point of view at every opportunity, even when the president tells lies and exercises poor judgment, and on the other side you have CNN, which is owned by AT&T, adopting the “never Trump” angle at every opportunity, even when the president tells the truth and shows good judgment.

    Each side has its champion knights in armor. Fox New has Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson wearing the Trump colors, and CNN has Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper as its white knights sporting the favors of The Rest.

    Everything becomes polarized and simplified. Every day it is all about Trump, did he tell the truth, did he lie, ad nauseam.

    Really in a time of a health crisis the news media should be telling us what people all over this vast nation are doing to address the crisis.

    What the Department of Health and Human Services is doing, what the CDC is doing, how Medicare is addressing the added challenges, talking to the highly paid executives of health insurance companies and hospital corporations, to whom we are legally obliged to pay health insurance premiums to find out how THEY are addressing the increased demand for services, the governors of states most affected to find out what influences their thinking and planning, to hospital executive to find out what they are doing, and how their states may be most affected.

    Instead everything is all about Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand. Leave the old bugger alone, for gods sake! Report on what is really going on and stop making it about Trump.

    • Replies: @peterike
    @Jonathan Mason


    Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand.

     

    Complete nonsense. Now, replace "Trump" with "Biden" and you're spot on. You might want to compare the two so you stop making such a fool of yourself.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Jonathan Mason

    "Instead everything is all about Biden, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand."

    FIFY.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    , @res
    @Jonathan Mason


    Some years ago there was a broadcasting regulation that in political discussions both sides of any argument had to be given equal time, which meant that you would have a lot of nutcases brought onto TV to make fringe arguments, rather than bringing on wise and experienced people who were well-informed about the pros and cons of any particular issue.

    When this regulation came to an end, I applauded it.
     
    Anyone know what the current status is of rules of this form? I see two primary forms (it appears to me you may be conflating them).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCC_fairness_doctrine

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal-time_rule superseded by
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_Act_of_1934

    The former (FCC fairness doctrine) was eliminated as policy and removed as a rule (why the need to do this as well?) in 2011.

    The Communications Act of 1934 had changes in the 1980s and 1990s, but I am having trouble understanding exactly what resulted. A very relevant part of the wikipedia entry appears garbled to me.

    One major amendment to the Communications Act of 1934 was made on September 7, 1999. The FCC ruled "that a broadcast station should not be allowed to refuse a request for political advertising time solely on the ground that the station does not sell or program such lengths of time". Politics have had many effects and changes to the act that are not in the "best interest of the public" thus taking away some of the power given to the FCC from the Act.[20]
     
    Back to you.

    Hence the Murdoch media, which include Fox TV News push the “forever Trump” point of view at every opportunity, even when the president tells lies and exercises poor judgment, and on the other side you have CNN, which is owned by AT&T, adopting the “never Trump” angle at every opportunity, even when the president tells the truth and shows good judgment.
     
    This is a very interesting characterization for two reasons.
    1. Fox was against Trump before it was for him. Or have you forgotten the Megyn Kelly controversy?
    2. You write that as if it were Fox vs. CNN. When in reality it is essentially Fox vs. every other MSM outlet. That is extremely misleading IMHO.

    Each side has its champion knights in armor. Fox New has Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson wearing the Trump colors, and CNN has Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper as its white knights sporting the favors of The Rest.
     
    Again, you act as if the sides were represented by relatively even numbers in the media.

    Everything becomes polarized and simplified. Every day it is all about Trump, did he tell the truth, did he lie, ad nauseam.
     
    Would you seriously argue that this is not primarily caused by the non-Fox MSM being nonstop "Orange man bad" regardless of the actual topic at hand?

    Report on what is really going on and stop making it about Trump.
     
    At least we agree on this.
    , @Charles Erwin Wilson's phone
    @Jonathan Mason

    Fox is moving left, and has been for some time now. They just fired Trish Regan for being pro-Trump. Murdoch boys want in with the kool kids

    Replies: @HA

  60. Let’s take a broader approach. For instance, similar to Camus’ in “The Plague”….

    …………………………

    It was quite dark by the time he reached his patient’s house. In the bedroom the distant clamor of a populace rejoicing in its new-won freedom could be faintly heard, and the old fellow was as usual transposing peas from one pan to another.

    “They’re quite right to amuse themselves,” he said. “It takes all sorts to make a world, as they say.
    And your colleague, doctor, how’s he getting on?”

    “He’s dead.” Rieux was listening to his patient’s rumbling chest.

    “Ah, really?” The old fellow sounded embarrassed.

    “Of plague,” Rieux added.

    “Yes,” the old man said after a moment’s silence, “it’s always the best who go. That’s how life is. But he was a man who knew what he wanted.”

    “Why do you say that?” The doctor was putting back his stethoscope.

    “Oh, for no particular reason. Only, well, he never talked just for talking’s sake. I’d rather cottoned to him. But there you are! All those folks are saying: ‘It was plague. We’ve had the plague here.’ You’d almost think they expected to be given medals for it. But what does that mean, ‘plague’? Just life, no more than that.”

    “Do your inhalations regularly.”

    “Don’t worry about me, doctor! There’s lots of life in me yet, and I’ll see ’em all into their graves. I know how to live.”

    A burst of joyful shouts in the distance seemed an echo of his boast. Halfway across the room the doctor halted.

    “Would you mind if I go up on the terrace?”

    “Of course not. You’d like to have a look at ’em, that it? But they’re just the same as ever, really.” When Rieux was leaving the room, a new thought crossed his mind. “I say, doctor. Is it a fact they’re going to put up a memorial to the people who died of plague?”

    “So the papers say. A monument, or just a tablet.”

    “I could have sworn it! And there’ll be speeches.” He chuckled throatily. “I can almost hear them saying: ‘Our dear departed…’ And then they’ll go off and have a good snack.”
    ……………………………………………………..

    And, indeed, as he listened to the cries of joy rising from the town, Rieux remembered that such joy is always imperiled. He knew what those jubilant crowds did not know but could have learned from books: that the plague bacillus never dies or disappears for good; that it can lie dormant for years and years in furniture and linen-chests; that it bides its time in bedrooms, cellars, trunks, and bookshelves; and that perhaps the day would come when, for the bane and the enlightening of men, it would rouse up its rats again and send them forth to die in a happy city.

  61. I’m thinking there must be an way to make ordinary surgical masks more effective. Filter material exists in a wide range of readily available products, from automotive parts to furnace and HEPA filters. It would take slicing and dicing, but not a big deal. Pretty doable for most folks. Heck, the surgical masks probably aren’t even that necessary once you rig up your own breathing filter apparatus. The government should be working on public service announcements to help guide people through this per the video in Steve’s article.

    BTW, just reported that 1000 NYPD officers have tested positive for coronavirus.

  62. @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D


    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite.
     
    I agree to some extent, but this is something to do with our media. Some years ago there was a broadcasting regulation that in political discussions both sides of any argument had to be given equal time, which meant that you would have a lot of nutcases brought onto TV to make fringe arguments, rather than bringing on wise and experienced people who were well-informed about the pros and cons of any particular issue.

    When this regulation came to an end, I applauded it. But unfortunately it has turned out that instead of leading to more balanced and sensible debate, it simply led to a polarization of different media that would tailor the news for different markets and feed people whatever they wanted to hear.

    Hence the Murdoch media, which include Fox TV News push the "forever Trump" point of view at every opportunity, even when the president tells lies and exercises poor judgment, and on the other side you have CNN, which is owned by AT&T, adopting the "never Trump" angle at every opportunity, even when the president tells the truth and shows good judgment.

    Each side has its champion knights in armor. Fox New has Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson wearing the Trump colors, and CNN has Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper as its white knights sporting the favors of The Rest.

    Everything becomes polarized and simplified. Every day it is all about Trump, did he tell the truth, did he lie, ad nauseam.

    Really in a time of a health crisis the news media should be telling us what people all over this vast nation are doing to address the crisis.

    What the Department of Health and Human Services is doing, what the CDC is doing, how Medicare is addressing the added challenges, talking to the highly paid executives of health insurance companies and hospital corporations, to whom we are legally obliged to pay health insurance premiums to find out how THEY are addressing the increased demand for services, the governors of states most affected to find out what influences their thinking and planning, to hospital executive to find out what they are doing, and how their states may be most affected.

    Instead everything is all about Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand. Leave the old bugger alone, for gods sake! Report on what is really going on and stop making it about Trump.

    Replies: @peterike, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @res, @Charles Erwin Wilson's phone

    Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand.

    Complete nonsense. Now, replace “Trump” with “Biden” and you’re spot on. You might want to compare the two so you stop making such a fool of yourself.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @peterike

    Biden too, but he gets less press with regard to the epidemic.

    Replies: @J.Ross

  63. There is a great difference in respitory transmission indoors vs outdoors.

  64. @Jack D
    @NickG


    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks
     
    The filtration may be as good or even better. However, there is a trade-off between filtration and breathability - vac bags are made with the assumption that a powerful electric blower is going to be sucking the air thru, not a set of human lungs.

    N95s are molded to fit the face and have metal nose clips and gaskets in order to form a seal. Any homemade mask is going to leak around the edges. The more impermeable the filter material is, the more you are going to bypass the filter and suck air from around the edges.

    Any homemade mask is going to be better than nothing. But N95s are better if you can get them.

    Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out, in fact eager to get rid of them because they stockpiled billions of them to prepare for the epidemics that did not come outside of Hubei Province. Some are coming out now by air but large #'s should start showing up by container ship in the next few weeks.

    Replies: @Coemgen, @Muggles

    >>Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out,<<

    Not to be a broken record here, but why is "news" about the wonderful success the Communist Chinese have achieved being repeated and trumpeted as fact? I hope it is true. But what other news do iSteve readers eagerly swallow that is "apparently" true from only one unverified government source?

    Readers here are notoriously skeptical and cynical (beyond belief) about anything the US government says about anything. Or the CDC or any federally funded source. Zero acceptance of what is said, absent outside verification. Yet in China there is zero independent verification or non governmental reporting about the pandemic or anything else. ZERO! No non Chinese are permitted to access basic facts or even interview doctors/scientists or average citizens.

    This is a clearly irrational methodology. The US govt for all of its many flaws doesn't employ, like CCCP controlled China, literally hundreds of thousands of Internet censors or print/TV/radio censors. Do folks here not know that? Why believe them at face value? You get arrested there for violating the Party Line. Or disappeared.

    Does anyone with any sense invest in Chinese businesses absent listings on Western stock exchanges which mandate First World accounting and auditing procedures?

    There is an odd bias, which I see even on libertarian and conservative blogs, which faithfully repeats Chinese "news" while sneering at anything the FDA/CDC says. This appears to be an historical artifact of getting objective criticism of US govt policies from foreign news sources. Even Communist ones, which don't lie about US problems. But that policy doesn't extend to Chinese or Russian analysis of their own government's actions. Consistency of skepticism is required!

    • Agree: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @Peterike
    @Muggles

    “The US govt for all of its many flaws doesn't employ, like CCCP controlled China, literally hundreds of thousands of Internet censors or print/TV/radio censors.”

    Well no, because our private companies do all that quite willingly, along with an army of unpaid activist fanatics on social media.

    The difference between America and China is basically the American ruling class is more subtle. And we have Trump working against them.

    , @SOL
    @Muggles

    It's not just the few who are pro-CCP weirdos or paid influencers?

  65. Steve, I remember you writing in 2016 about Trump’s hunches, from him watching a lot of TV news. Particularly about black lives matter and violence. It seems like he may be correct on using malarial drugs to fight coronavirus:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-malaria.html

  66. We all need to wear home sewn masks to prevent:
    a) us from touching our mouths unless hands are sanitized
    b) to remind other people not to touch their own faces
    c) to stop heavy droplets (when some a-hole sneezes) from getting in
    c.1) prolly good to carry a spare mask and a baggie to hold soiled masks
    c.2) methinking I need to start sewing
    d) to politely and nonver4ally tell others, “No, I do not want a hug.”
    and finally (drum roll please) …./…../…///.././…/…..
    e) So that doctors can wear the limited numbers of N95’s

  67. @Jack D
    @AnotherDad

    That's really apropos of nothing. For all I know, that young woman is a mother of three. I doubt it, but I have no idea either way.

    BUT, the vital message that she is sending is 100% correct and 100% opposite to the advice that the CDC was giving and is STILL being ignored. I want Trump and Fauci and Pence and everyone to come out wearing their masks (just like Xi did in China). It's easy to police since the masks are so damn obvious. In Asia you can't get 3 steps down the street without someone yelling at you if you go out without your mask. What are you trying to do, kill us all? The public service message has to be that masks are not for YOU, they are to protect everyone else and you are a selfish bastard if you go out without one.

    I completely understand (though thoroughly disagree) with why they were lying to us about N95s, but homemade masks were always (and still are) completely within reach and are highly effective in stopping outgoing transmission and at least somewhat effective regarding incoming. Rather than locking everyone, old and young, in their homes, we could have probably reduced the level of the epidemic greatly (especially in crowded places like NY) if we had adopted universal mask wearing early.

    It's still not too late, but this young woman's message is STILL being ignored. She has convinced me - the next time I have to go out (and staying in is better still) I'm wearing a mask (and glasses) and I am not going to stop wearing one in public until the epidemic has fully abated. I don't care how dorky it looks - looking cool is not worth risking your life. Everyone - take the mask pledge! I think this could shift very quickly from the point where it is unthinkable to be seen wearing a mask in public (even now people still report that they get shit when they go out wearing one) to the opposite.

    Replies: @Thea, @guest007, @AnotherDad

    They get shit Due to jealousy over the shortage of masks. Manufacturing more will alleviate the problem.

    I went to Walgreens in late February and masks were already gone. Weeks before most realistic what was going on.

  68. I’ve had an old barely-used dust mask hanging on the basement stairs for years now, so I’ve been trying to wear it in public- not because I think it’s a terribly effective piece of equipment, but mostly to help normalize mask-wearing and make other people feel less embarrassed about covering their faces. If me looking slightly stupid can help save lives, I’m happy to lend a hand. Even a bandana or scarf is probably better than nothing.

  69. Some insight into the official Vancouver situation:

    British Colombia Premier John Horgan addresses province, says we’re all in this together, time to put partisanship aside, etc etc.

  70. @Jack D
    @AnotherDad

    That's really apropos of nothing. For all I know, that young woman is a mother of three. I doubt it, but I have no idea either way.

    BUT, the vital message that she is sending is 100% correct and 100% opposite to the advice that the CDC was giving and is STILL being ignored. I want Trump and Fauci and Pence and everyone to come out wearing their masks (just like Xi did in China). It's easy to police since the masks are so damn obvious. In Asia you can't get 3 steps down the street without someone yelling at you if you go out without your mask. What are you trying to do, kill us all? The public service message has to be that masks are not for YOU, they are to protect everyone else and you are a selfish bastard if you go out without one.

    I completely understand (though thoroughly disagree) with why they were lying to us about N95s, but homemade masks were always (and still are) completely within reach and are highly effective in stopping outgoing transmission and at least somewhat effective regarding incoming. Rather than locking everyone, old and young, in their homes, we could have probably reduced the level of the epidemic greatly (especially in crowded places like NY) if we had adopted universal mask wearing early.

    It's still not too late, but this young woman's message is STILL being ignored. She has convinced me - the next time I have to go out (and staying in is better still) I'm wearing a mask (and glasses) and I am not going to stop wearing one in public until the epidemic has fully abated. I don't care how dorky it looks - looking cool is not worth risking your life. Everyone - take the mask pledge! I think this could shift very quickly from the point where it is unthinkable to be seen wearing a mask in public (even now people still report that they get shit when they go out wearing one) to the opposite.

    Replies: @Thea, @guest007, @AnotherDad

    How would all of those masks worked in a crowded bar on St Patricks day or during Brunch. Masks help because they make social distance and isolation more effective but they are not a replacement.

    And no matter what happens on masks, they will not get the local restaurants or bars open. At best masks would help get production and logistics facilities open, operating at a higher level, and make the workers feel safer. However, masks only work if everyone is using them and using them correctly.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @guest007

    I've heard this argument before - masks make people feel invulnerable so it increases risky behavior. It's a stupid argument. Cocky idiots are cocky idiots, with or without masks. Do you take your hair dryer in the bath tub now that your bathroom outlet has GFCI? No, because you're not a cocky idiot. Do we not put GFCI's in bathrooms just to discourage the cocky idiots?

    The safety improvement far outweighs the small # of cocky idiots who will now take more risks. If mask wearing decreases transmission by 90% (a made up number) and the feeling of safety that masks bring decreases safety by 10% (another made up number) you are still way ahead of the game.

    Replies: @guest007, @Jenner Ickham Errican

  71. @Jack D
    @AnotherDad

    That's really apropos of nothing. For all I know, that young woman is a mother of three. I doubt it, but I have no idea either way.

    BUT, the vital message that she is sending is 100% correct and 100% opposite to the advice that the CDC was giving and is STILL being ignored. I want Trump and Fauci and Pence and everyone to come out wearing their masks (just like Xi did in China). It's easy to police since the masks are so damn obvious. In Asia you can't get 3 steps down the street without someone yelling at you if you go out without your mask. What are you trying to do, kill us all? The public service message has to be that masks are not for YOU, they are to protect everyone else and you are a selfish bastard if you go out without one.

    I completely understand (though thoroughly disagree) with why they were lying to us about N95s, but homemade masks were always (and still are) completely within reach and are highly effective in stopping outgoing transmission and at least somewhat effective regarding incoming. Rather than locking everyone, old and young, in their homes, we could have probably reduced the level of the epidemic greatly (especially in crowded places like NY) if we had adopted universal mask wearing early.

    It's still not too late, but this young woman's message is STILL being ignored. She has convinced me - the next time I have to go out (and staying in is better still) I'm wearing a mask (and glasses) and I am not going to stop wearing one in public until the epidemic has fully abated. I don't care how dorky it looks - looking cool is not worth risking your life. Everyone - take the mask pledge! I think this could shift very quickly from the point where it is unthinkable to be seen wearing a mask in public (even now people still report that they get shit when they go out wearing one) to the opposite.

    Replies: @Thea, @guest007, @AnotherDad

    That’s really apropos of nothing.

    It’s apropos of perspective. A good thing to have as everyone, you, me–even Steve–obsess over this latest gift from China.

    It’s interesting how jazz up people can get about this thing… but utterly un-jazzed up about stuff that really, really matters–the Wall, E-verify, ending TPS, the refugee racket, immigration moratorium–that will profoundly affect their children’s, their posterity’s future.

    The supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils. In seeking to do so, it encounters obstacles which are deeply rooted in human nature.

    One is that by the very order of things such evils are not demonstrable until they have occurred: at each stage in their onset there is room for doubt and for dispute whether they be real or imaginary. By the same token, they attract little attention in comparison with current troubles, which are both indisputable and pressing: whence the besetting temptation of all politics to concern itself with the immediate present at the expense of the future.

    ~~~

    On masks — you’re not even “preaching to the converted”. Check my comment history … i’ve been bitching about this mask nonsense since day one.

    AnotherMom’s sewing maching has been whirring this whole month. And, in fact, right now she’s walked over to post office to ship some KN95s–that we just got courtesy of her manufacturer in China–plus some of her own masks to a sister-in-law who is undergoing chemo and really at risk. Apparently she goes to the hospital and they actually do not even give her the typical patient mask.

    This is a cluster of amazing magnitude. Ought to be renamed CDP–Center for Disease Propagation.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    @AnotherDad

    I notice you don't even mention the trillion dollar giveaway. Maybe you think the rich are your friends.

    , @V. Hickel
    @AnotherDad

    By Jack D's morality you should be selling those for $12 per.

  72. @AnotherDad
    She's cute. Good marketing to have her making the pitch.

    But in the end, what Czechia badly needs from her is ... babies.

    This new Chinese virus will kill a bunch of people--mostly old and/or sick. But while it may be personally scary it is no threat to nations or civilization.

    The threat Western Christian civilization faces remains the same--allowing in foreign invaders and not having babies.

    This new Chinese virus will have absolutely no impact on my children's and their children's future. But the demographics of their fellow citizens will be critical in determining what sort of nation they live in.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Stan d Mute

    This new Chinese virus will have absolutely no impact on my children’s and their children’s future.

    The virus might have improved the prospects for your children by separating geezers from their wealth before the healthcare system could bleed their accounts dry.

    Now, however, your children will face a devastated economy and crushing public debt beyond anything the world has seen previously.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Stan d Mute

    "Now, however, your children will face a devastated economy and crushing public debt beyond anything the world has seen previously."

    Yeah, but that wasn't the virus, it was the overdone shutdown that the virus-caused panic permitted. Not changing anything about how screwed his kids are, Tho.

  73. @peterike
    @Jonathan Mason


    Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand.

     

    Complete nonsense. Now, replace "Trump" with "Biden" and you're spot on. You might want to compare the two so you stop making such a fool of yourself.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    Biden too, but he gets less press with regard to the epidemic.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Jonathan Mason

    You're a doctor. What would you think of an opinion about Trump whose argument hinged on expelling toxins from the body by supercharging orgone with free energy?

  74. @128
    What if something like this happened in 1998, would a poorer China respond a lot worse than now, keep in mind that Hong Kong is a major air hub. Would Clinton respond worse than Trump, his IQ is arguably higher than Trump, would the Lewinski crisis back then significantly affect government response, even back then lots of people had email and fax machines, so some degree of work from home was possible. And would could still listen to the radio or music, watch TV, or read books for months on end at your home.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    would the Lewinski crisis back then significantly affect government response

    Would Monica, living in the Watergate Hotel, working in the Oral O[ri]ffice, and just recently out of the intern steno pool, have been a vector herself?

    HIV doesn’t survive in saliva, so she was safe from that scourge.

  75. @unit472
    @NickG

    Good idea! I have a box of 25 N95 masks leftover from the swine flu pandemic in 2009. They seem to be in good shape so I wear one when I go to the grocery/pharmacy. To conserve them I put the one I wore on the dash of my car and figure the Florida sun will sterilize it after a day or two.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    The good news is, your windshield blocks virtually all damaging UV radiation.

    “Your windshield is normally quite different from the rest of your glass, in that it’s two pieces of glass laminated with a layer of plastic – vinyl – in between,” says Vandal. “So that triple-layer system by its nature – because plastics don’t like UV – contains UV inhibitors that protect the plastic and as a result also protect any transmission of UV through it. So a windshield, laminated glass, blocks 98 to 99 per cent of all UV – A, B or C.”

    Due to safety regulations, all windshields in North America are made of laminated glass. The side and back windows, however, are typically a single layer of thicker, tempered glass.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/commuting/does-my-windshield-protect-me-from-the-sun/article12495123/

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Joe Stalin

    A hot car in the sunlight can get up to 130 degrees. If a fever can kill a virus, so can a hot car.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

  76. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @AnotherDad

    'the ones behind this “you don’t need a mask” ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.'

    Boomer sez everyone else 'ought to' permanently rearrange their lives cuz boomer is scared. Solopsists.

    Boomers ought to be arrested and quarantined until you stop tantruming in public.

    Replies: @Ragno, @Anon, @AnotherDad

    Before I comment – can we kindly call a moratorium on the die, Boomer, die hot take? I mean considering our host here is (loud stage whisper) a Boomer himself! I got into this with that supremely-annoying (though generally worth reading) Vox Day, in which I pointed out that mf’ers born in 1968 are whistling past the graveyard when they call for no mercy on all mf’ers born in 1964. (His response was to ban me “forever”. Well, that’s one way to win an argument.)

    Now – masks. Frankly, I’m getting whiplash from the sundry Trusted Authorities insisting Wear One At All Times/Don’t Wear One, They Don’t Protect You. I personally can’t stand them – the N95s trigger my claustrophobia something fierce, and even in a supermarket (such as the one I was in this morning) I could only handle wearing it 4 or 5 minutes at a time before sliding it down past my chin. Thankfully, most of the time I’m outdoors these days, I’m on a bike path adjacent to a large body of water, so between the distance between riders/joggers and a healthy wind coming in off the bay, I don’t need or wear one….hallelujah. I know the cloth ones are supposedly woefully inadequate to the task but they sure look a lot less confining to wear – now if only I could buy one without having to watch some Baruch Feldheim* moisten his beak in the process.

    * https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/

    • Replies: @V. Hickel
    @Ragno

    Watch out you will upset Jack D., Defender of the Faith.

  77. @Buzz Mohawk
    If you're using an N95 mask, just be sure to fit it snugly around your nose and to your face. There is a strip of metal over the nose that you must bend for a close fit. If you don't do this and you have anything other than a broad nose, your breathing will suck air and droplets in through the gaps around the sides. Close all gaps around the mask.

    Wear glasses too, to keep droplets away, and to keep yourself from touching your eyes. Safety glasses from a hardware store are good for this.

    Get good and careful at removing these things. If you're not, you can end up touching your face a lot just by struggling to get that N95 mask off. In any case, wash your hands before you do, and wash your face and hands afterwards.

    And... listen to girls in berets. They are fighters.

    http://66.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lsq573fhIY1qib0x9o1_500.jpg
    Budapest 1956

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @donut

    Wouldn’t you prefer the girl in the beret as a lover, not a fighter?

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @TomSchmidt

    Well, I have read that she was 15 at the time, so that would be inappropriate. I find that photo and many others from the 1956 Hungarian Uprising fascinating. I've learned something about this history from my wife.

    BTW the video Steve posted is excellent, and the girl in it did a good job.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  78. @DanHessinMD
    @AnotherDad

    Just yesterday, the CDC issued new guidelines that everyone should eat even more bats. I have been eating as many bats as I can based on the CDC's earlier recommendations but apparently we are not doing enough.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Jack D

  79. @Stan d Mute
    @AnotherDad


    This new Chinese virus will have absolutely no impact on my children’s and their children’s future.
     
    The virus might have improved the prospects for your children by separating geezers from their wealth before the healthcare system could bleed their accounts dry.

    Now, however, your children will face a devastated economy and crushing public debt beyond anything the world has seen previously.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    “Now, however, your children will face a devastated economy and crushing public debt beyond anything the world has seen previously.”

    Yeah, but that wasn’t the virus, it was the overdone shutdown that the virus-caused panic permitted. Not changing anything about how screwed his kids are, Tho.

  80. @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D


    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite.
     
    I agree to some extent, but this is something to do with our media. Some years ago there was a broadcasting regulation that in political discussions both sides of any argument had to be given equal time, which meant that you would have a lot of nutcases brought onto TV to make fringe arguments, rather than bringing on wise and experienced people who were well-informed about the pros and cons of any particular issue.

    When this regulation came to an end, I applauded it. But unfortunately it has turned out that instead of leading to more balanced and sensible debate, it simply led to a polarization of different media that would tailor the news for different markets and feed people whatever they wanted to hear.

    Hence the Murdoch media, which include Fox TV News push the "forever Trump" point of view at every opportunity, even when the president tells lies and exercises poor judgment, and on the other side you have CNN, which is owned by AT&T, adopting the "never Trump" angle at every opportunity, even when the president tells the truth and shows good judgment.

    Each side has its champion knights in armor. Fox New has Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson wearing the Trump colors, and CNN has Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper as its white knights sporting the favors of The Rest.

    Everything becomes polarized and simplified. Every day it is all about Trump, did he tell the truth, did he lie, ad nauseam.

    Really in a time of a health crisis the news media should be telling us what people all over this vast nation are doing to address the crisis.

    What the Department of Health and Human Services is doing, what the CDC is doing, how Medicare is addressing the added challenges, talking to the highly paid executives of health insurance companies and hospital corporations, to whom we are legally obliged to pay health insurance premiums to find out how THEY are addressing the increased demand for services, the governors of states most affected to find out what influences their thinking and planning, to hospital executive to find out what they are doing, and how their states may be most affected.

    Instead everything is all about Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand. Leave the old bugger alone, for gods sake! Report on what is really going on and stop making it about Trump.

    Replies: @peterike, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @res, @Charles Erwin Wilson's phone

    “Instead everything is all about Biden, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand.”

    FIFY.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen


    “Instead everything is all about Biden, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand.”
     
    Yes, Biden would most likely be just as bad, and also has form as a serial liar. But he is not in power, and perhaps he never will be.

    But Trump is speaking at a press conference as I type this and is casually mentioning that he has spoken to Putin on the phone and has spoken to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia on the phone, and that he expects them to come to an agreement on oil prices within the next few days.

    Then he goes on to say that 99 cents a gallon gasoline is great for a lot of people, because it is like a tax cut, and then he goes on to say that he is having a meeting with oil company executives later this week.

    Then he goes on to day that the US is the world's top oil producer without mentioning that industry is now in crisis because it has much higher production costs than Saudi Arabia and Russia at a time when there is a global production glut and when both the Russian and Saudi Arabian governments are incredibly dependent on oil exports to fund their governments.

    You just wonder what message he is trying to give the world and why he is not meeting face to face with Putin and the Crown Prince for a summit of the world's top three oil producers.

    Perhaps his message is buy cheap gas now while you can, because next week it is going to double, but who really knows?

    Replies: @Jack D

  81. @Clyde
    Masks are good. They reduce the viral loads being dispersed by the virus infected. But you will be a reject if you are the only one wearing one. Intelligent people will give you a wide berth.
    South Koreans have been the most successful, I bet they have been producing millions of N95s right at home for at least 6 weeks. Ever since that crazy ass Shincheonjigot church got lots of Koreans infected or dead. The wacky man who heads it up is 88 with perfectly black (dyed) hair and bills himself as Messiah.

    Replies: @wren, @Chrisnonymous, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Jenner Ickham Errican

    But you will be a reject if you are the only one wearing one. Intelligent people will give you a wide berth.

    Given current circumstances that’s a feature, not a bug.

    Not sure why grown men on Unz.com keep worrying what random strangers think… is it a lot of lingering (decades old ???) schoolyard trauma from being mocked/rejected?

  82. @guest007
    @Jack D

    How would all of those masks worked in a crowded bar on St Patricks day or during Brunch. Masks help because they make social distance and isolation more effective but they are not a replacement.

    And no matter what happens on masks, they will not get the local restaurants or bars open. At best masks would help get production and logistics facilities open, operating at a higher level, and make the workers feel safer. However, masks only work if everyone is using them and using them correctly.

    Replies: @Jack D

    I’ve heard this argument before – masks make people feel invulnerable so it increases risky behavior. It’s a stupid argument. Cocky idiots are cocky idiots, with or without masks. Do you take your hair dryer in the bath tub now that your bathroom outlet has GFCI? No, because you’re not a cocky idiot. Do we not put GFCI’s in bathrooms just to discourage the cocky idiots?

    The safety improvement far outweighs the small # of cocky idiots who will now take more risks. If mask wearing decreases transmission by 90% (a made up number) and the feeling of safety that masks bring decreases safety by 10% (another made up number) you are still way ahead of the game.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @Jack D

    The idea that when people feel safe they take more risks is called the Peltzman Effect. I have been surprised that more economist are not talking and writing about it. All of the talk in early March is that it was a Covid-19 was a disease of the old caused younger people to do stupid things like go to Mexico for spring break or party in Florida.

    https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/Peltzman-Effect

    Masks will help but masks are not a cure-all. It still takes social distancing, hand washing, cleaning, and not being in groups. How many outbreaks have been traced back to celebrations, churches, or vacations?

    , @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @Jack D


    Do we not put GFCI’s in bathrooms
     
    Gonorrhea fecal contamination interface? TMI, Jack :(

    Replies: @Jack D

  83. Is a universal requirement to wear masks a possible alternative to shutting down the economy? I’m no expert, but if it reduced the reproductive number R0 to less than one, wouldn’t the virus die out before herd immunity is reached?

    A related question: what about Lubos Motl’s argument that shutting down the economy is likely to do nothing, or almost nothing, to reduce the final death toll, since the lockdown cannot be continued very long? He references this paper in defense of his position: https://tinyurl.com/uqn38w4

    Does it take a theory to beat a theory, even a bad one?

    • Thanks: botazefa
    • Replies: @guest007
    @Luke Lea

    China seems to have saved their economy without a two month lock down without everyone getting sick. However, there is no way that everyone is going to willing go back to work now no matter how bad the economy is.

    Replies: @Thea

    , @Jack D
    @Luke Lea

    The argument for the lockdown is mainly that it flattens the curve so that the medical system doesn't get overwhelmed (as NYC's is teetering on the brink of). Once the system saturates, there are no longer enough people to answer 911 calls, so not only Chinese Virus victims but people with heart attacks, etc. don't make it to the hospital. Overworked medical personnel get sick worsening the problem. You run out of ventilators, ICU beds, etc. Piles of corpses fill refrigerated trailers as the morgues are full. This makes for very bad cosmetics (which the media loves to dwell upon - very good for the ratings) even if it doesn't change the # of people who ultimately die.

    We are accustomed to putting everyone in respiratory distress on a ventilator whether they are a hopeless case or not and leaving them there until they flatline. Even if you don't WANT to be put on one or want to be taken off, you are going to have to fight the hospital because they make money off of people in the ICU, big money. And there are those who are opposed to "rationing health care" - God forbid that everyone in America doesn't get all you can eat unlimited health care even if it consumes our entire GDP. So it is more bad cosmetics if they start unplugging people who are on ventilators even if 97% were not going to make it anyway.

    There are real issues. People are dying alone and don't even get funerals anymore. This is not normal. It would be nice to have some type of normalcy.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    , @res
    @Luke Lea

    That paper is interesting. This seems like a good summary. Emphasis in original.


    Two months of mitigations have not improved the outcome of the epidemic in this model, it has just delayed its terrible effects. In fact, because of the role of weather in the model presented in the Kristof article, two months of mitigations actually results in 50% more infections and deaths than two weeks of mitigations, since it pushes the peak of the epidemic to the winter instead of the summer, whose warmer months this model assumes causes lower transmission rates.
     
    P.S. Do you have a link to that specific Lubos Motl post? I am having trouble knowing which is the right one since he is so prolific. For example:
    https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-enthusiasm-with-which-west-commits.html

    Replies: @Polymath

  84. @anon
    It’s amazing how Trump turns them all into petulant defiant teenagers.

    Libtards have always been that way. Especially Boomers. It just wasn't as obvious Before Trump (BT).

    Srsly, libtardism is one long "F-U, DAD". Not just the 60's, read Truman Capote - "In Cold Blood" is still required in a lotta high schools even in Current Year - that mincing faggot's problems are so obvious. Margaret Atwood? Phil Roth? The list goes on, and it's all about some fragile libtard having issues with Daddy. Same for their playwrights, like Eugene O'Neil.

    Spoiled brat insecure teens who want the "cool kidz" to like them, who pretend to BE the "kool kidz". Sunstein is a fine example, but he's hardly the only one. Overage adolescents, that's all libtards are.

    Especially the ones who "f'ing luv science".

    Replies: @Jack D, @Charon, @AnotherDad

    Phil Roth? The list goes on, and it’s all about some fragile libtard having issues with Daddy

    By all accounts (especially Roth’s own) he had a happy loving childhood and a great relationship with his parents for as long as they lived. He admired his father so much that he wrote a book about him. And his parents felt the same way – Roth told a story about how when Portnoy’s Complaint came out, he sent his parents on a cruise with his newfound riches and his father brought a pile of the books with him on the trip and every time they became friendly with another couple on the cruise, he gave them a copy of the book, autographed from Philip Roth’s father. I don’t know about those other guys but you’re barking up the wrong tree when it comes to Roth.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Jack D

    A lot of high achievers, such as Philip Roth, Tom Wolfe and John Updike, grew up in highly supportive families.

  85. @Anon
    Wow! That's the Czech Minister of Health? Why doesn't the U.S. have hot cabinet secretaries like that? Why don't U.S. cabinet secretaries who wear berets? The accent just slays me.

    Edit: Maybe the Minister is the guy at the end?

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    This is the Czech Minister of Health sans mask.

    https://www.mzcr.cz/dokumenty/ministr-zdravotnictvi_13034_841_1.html

  86. @Jack D
    @guest007

    I've heard this argument before - masks make people feel invulnerable so it increases risky behavior. It's a stupid argument. Cocky idiots are cocky idiots, with or without masks. Do you take your hair dryer in the bath tub now that your bathroom outlet has GFCI? No, because you're not a cocky idiot. Do we not put GFCI's in bathrooms just to discourage the cocky idiots?

    The safety improvement far outweighs the small # of cocky idiots who will now take more risks. If mask wearing decreases transmission by 90% (a made up number) and the feeling of safety that masks bring decreases safety by 10% (another made up number) you are still way ahead of the game.

    Replies: @guest007, @Jenner Ickham Errican

    The idea that when people feel safe they take more risks is called the Peltzman Effect. I have been surprised that more economist are not talking and writing about it. All of the talk in early March is that it was a Covid-19 was a disease of the old caused younger people to do stupid things like go to Mexico for spring break or party in Florida.

    https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/Peltzman-Effect

    Masks will help but masks are not a cure-all. It still takes social distancing, hand washing, cleaning, and not being in groups. How many outbreaks have been traced back to celebrations, churches, or vacations?

  87. @Luke Lea
    Is a universal requirement to wear masks a possible alternative to shutting down the economy? I'm no expert, but if it reduced the reproductive number R0 to less than one, wouldn't the virus die out before herd immunity is reached?

    A related question: what about Lubos Motl's argument that shutting down the economy is likely to do nothing, or almost nothing, to reduce the final death toll, since the lockdown cannot be continued very long? He references this paper in defense of his position: https://tinyurl.com/uqn38w4

    Does it take a theory to beat a theory, even a bad one?

    Replies: @guest007, @Jack D, @res

    China seems to have saved their economy without a two month lock down without everyone getting sick. However, there is no way that everyone is going to willing go back to work now no matter how bad the economy is.

    • Replies: @Thea
    @guest007

    China’s economy is pretty dependent on our economy for trade so the worst is yet to come.

    Replies: @guest007

  88. @AnotherDad
    @Jack D

    That’s really apropos of nothing.
     

    It's apropos of perspective. A good thing to have as everyone, you, me--even Steve--obsess over this latest gift from China.

    It's interesting how jazz up people can get about this thing... but utterly un-jazzed up about stuff that really, really matters--the Wall, E-verify, ending TPS, the refugee racket, immigration moratorium--that will profoundly affect their children's, their posterity's future.

    The supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils. In seeking to do so, it encounters obstacles which are deeply rooted in human nature.

    One is that by the very order of things such evils are not demonstrable until they have occurred: at each stage in their onset there is room for doubt and for dispute whether they be real or imaginary. By the same token, they attract little attention in comparison with current troubles, which are both indisputable and pressing: whence the besetting temptation of all politics to concern itself with the immediate present at the expense of the future.
     

    ~~~

    On masks -- you're not even "preaching to the converted". Check my comment history ... i've been bitching about this mask nonsense since day one.

    AnotherMom's sewing maching has been whirring this whole month. And, in fact, right now she's walked over to post office to ship some KN95s--that we just got courtesy of her manufacturer in China--plus some of her own masks to a sister-in-law who is undergoing chemo and really at risk. Apparently she goes to the hospital and they actually do not even give her the typical patient mask.

    This is a cluster of amazing magnitude. Ought to be renamed CDP--Center for Disease Propagation.

    Replies: @obwandiyag, @V. Hickel

    I notice you don’t even mention the trillion dollar giveaway. Maybe you think the rich are your friends.

  89. @Luke Lea
    Is a universal requirement to wear masks a possible alternative to shutting down the economy? I'm no expert, but if it reduced the reproductive number R0 to less than one, wouldn't the virus die out before herd immunity is reached?

    A related question: what about Lubos Motl's argument that shutting down the economy is likely to do nothing, or almost nothing, to reduce the final death toll, since the lockdown cannot be continued very long? He references this paper in defense of his position: https://tinyurl.com/uqn38w4

    Does it take a theory to beat a theory, even a bad one?

    Replies: @guest007, @Jack D, @res

    The argument for the lockdown is mainly that it flattens the curve so that the medical system doesn’t get overwhelmed (as NYC’s is teetering on the brink of). Once the system saturates, there are no longer enough people to answer 911 calls, so not only Chinese Virus victims but people with heart attacks, etc. don’t make it to the hospital. Overworked medical personnel get sick worsening the problem. You run out of ventilators, ICU beds, etc. Piles of corpses fill refrigerated trailers as the morgues are full. This makes for very bad cosmetics (which the media loves to dwell upon – very good for the ratings) even if it doesn’t change the # of people who ultimately die.

    We are accustomed to putting everyone in respiratory distress on a ventilator whether they are a hopeless case or not and leaving them there until they flatline. Even if you don’t WANT to be put on one or want to be taken off, you are going to have to fight the hospital because they make money off of people in the ICU, big money. And there are those who are opposed to “rationing health care” – God forbid that everyone in America doesn’t get all you can eat unlimited health care even if it consumes our entire GDP. So it is more bad cosmetics if they start unplugging people who are on ventilators even if 97% were not going to make it anyway.

    There are real issues. People are dying alone and don’t even get funerals anymore. This is not normal. It would be nice to have some type of normalcy.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Jack D


    The argument for the lockdown is mainly that it flattens the curve so that...It would be nice to have some type of normalcy.
     
    We must destroy normalcy in order to save normalcy?
  90. @Jack D
    @Altai

    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite. Whatever deplorables believe, they believe the opposite. If, two weeks ago deplorables were afraid, they were bravely fearless. If deplorables are foolishly unafraid today, they are rightfully fearful. If a month ago Trump said close the borders , they wanted them open. If Trump says open the borders , they want them closed.Trump is always evil and wrong so whatever he says is, by definition wrong and must be opposed.

    Sleepy Joe was not looking good before this all started, but Wuhan Virus is a terrific opportunity for the Left. Never let a crisis go to waste. They are positively rooting for the epidemic to run out of control so that it can be blamed on Trump. BTW, what is the correlation between the level of epidemic and voting "blue"? NYC voted 4 to 1 for Hillary.

    William F. Buckley's pronouncement that he would rather have the US ruled by random names picked from the phonebook than by the Harvard faculty is more true than ever.

    Replies: @Altai, @Jonathan Mason, @Christopher Paul

    BTW, what is the correlation between the level of epidemic and voting “blue”?

    A value close to 1.

  91. Hey iSteve, straight outta Brooklyn:

    Brooklyn man arrested for hoarding masks, coughing on FBI agents
    https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/

    As a Libertarian sort I don’t object to hoarding. And I don’t believe there is actually a shortage.

    Also from NYC for some reason NYC is kind of the home to this sort of thing

    NYU Langone tells emergency doctors to consider who gets intubated, WSJ reports

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/nyu-langone-emergency-doctors-intubation/index.html

  92. @Jack D
    @guest007

    I've heard this argument before - masks make people feel invulnerable so it increases risky behavior. It's a stupid argument. Cocky idiots are cocky idiots, with or without masks. Do you take your hair dryer in the bath tub now that your bathroom outlet has GFCI? No, because you're not a cocky idiot. Do we not put GFCI's in bathrooms just to discourage the cocky idiots?

    The safety improvement far outweighs the small # of cocky idiots who will now take more risks. If mask wearing decreases transmission by 90% (a made up number) and the feeling of safety that masks bring decreases safety by 10% (another made up number) you are still way ahead of the game.

    Replies: @guest007, @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Do we not put GFCI’s in bathrooms

    Gonorrhea fecal contamination interface? TMI, Jack 🙁

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Ground fault circuit interrupter - those outlets with the little reset button (and the test button you are supposed to press monthly but no one ever does). This (along with the fact that no one has a tube radio to listen to anymore while they are taking a bath) is why people don't electrocute themselves in the bathtub nearly as much as they used to in the good old days.

    These units don't last forever (for $10 you get planned obsolescence) and the older ones fail in the live position so do yourself a favor and press the little test button and it should pop off instantly (then you press reset and the outlet should come back live). If it doesn't it needs to be replaced.

  93. Louisiana’s deaths-per-million rate is 30 times that of adjacent Texas:

    https://vdare.com/posts/audacious-epigone-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-per-capita-by-state

    Apparently, these masks are ineffective:

    • LOL: wren
    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @Reg Cæsar

    https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/57af94e12e69cf0f15650fbb/1471365432269-0YQEEXI6WNBNC884O1YK/PORTFOLIO-021.jpg?format=1000w

    NOLA sez: Laissez les hautes temps rouler!

    https://cdn6.dissolve.com/p/D428_109_004/D428_109_004_0004_600.jpg

    Replies: @duncsbaby

  94. res says:
    @Anonymous
    @AnotherDad


    3) people wear masks in indoor public and crowded outdoor spaces

    The CDC specifically told people not to do #3.
     
    No, they did not. You are mischaracterizing things.

    Replies: @res

    Really? From 2/12/2020.

    https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0212-cdc-telebriefing-transcript.html

    CDC does not currently recommend the use of face masks for the general public. This virus is not spreading in the community.

    Should I look for more examples? Or maybe you could present some evidence supporting your comment. That is generally good practice when accusing other people of “mischaracterizing things.”

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @res

    Your example is different from what AnotherDad is implying in the quote above.

    On February 12, there was not community transmission in 99% of the US, maybe 100%. "Community transmission/spread" is a technical term meaning that the upstream and downstream contacts of infected people cannot be traced. If there is no community transmission, masks are superfluous.

    Replies: @Jack D, @res

  95. @A Name or SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle
    Give the poor supermarket cashier a dollar and the bagger a dollar when you go shopping.
    It would give them a nice bonus they really deserve for having to go to the worst place besides health care facilities during this shit.
    They take a lot of customers in a shift so this tiny gift, if most people would do it, would probably double or triple their meager pay.

    You should do this for full serve gas attendants all the time or go to self serve.

    Replies: @Jehu

    Or give your supermarket cashier a nice new mask that your wife made with her sewing machine and abundant supplies of elastic and fabric. That’s what the wife and I are doing these days when we make a grocery run. Thus far 2 out of 2 cashiers have reacted really positively.
    We’ve also been supplying said masks to other members of our social circle.

  96. @Buzz Mohawk
    If you're using an N95 mask, just be sure to fit it snugly around your nose and to your face. There is a strip of metal over the nose that you must bend for a close fit. If you don't do this and you have anything other than a broad nose, your breathing will suck air and droplets in through the gaps around the sides. Close all gaps around the mask.

    Wear glasses too, to keep droplets away, and to keep yourself from touching your eyes. Safety glasses from a hardware store are good for this.

    Get good and careful at removing these things. If you're not, you can end up touching your face a lot just by struggling to get that N95 mask off. In any case, wash your hands before you do, and wash your face and hands afterwards.

    And... listen to girls in berets. They are fighters.

    http://66.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lsq573fhIY1qib0x9o1_500.jpg
    Budapest 1956

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @donut

    You shouldn’t make a joke about those Hungarian Patriots that sacrificed so much for their country . Having promised them our support we shamefully betrayed them in keeping with our English heritage .

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @donut

    Understood. I know about the 1956 Uprising and did not mean to make light of it. It is a tragedy that help never came.

  97. @Reg Cæsar
    Louisiana's deaths-per-million rate is 30 times that of adjacent Texas:


    https://vdare.com/posts/audacious-epigone-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-per-capita-by-state


    Apparently, these masks are ineffective:




    https://images.fineartamerica.com/images/artworkimages/mediumlarge/2/mardi-gras-mask-art-block-collections.jpg

    Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    NOLA sez: Laissez les hautes temps rouler!

    [MORE]

    • LOL: wren
    • Replies: @duncsbaby
    @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Oh, Baron Saturday. The Pretty Things called it back in '68:

    "Your life was cool, good senses rule
    Throw your life away"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZyNaqg27dA

  98. res says:
    @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D


    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite.
     
    I agree to some extent, but this is something to do with our media. Some years ago there was a broadcasting regulation that in political discussions both sides of any argument had to be given equal time, which meant that you would have a lot of nutcases brought onto TV to make fringe arguments, rather than bringing on wise and experienced people who were well-informed about the pros and cons of any particular issue.

    When this regulation came to an end, I applauded it. But unfortunately it has turned out that instead of leading to more balanced and sensible debate, it simply led to a polarization of different media that would tailor the news for different markets and feed people whatever they wanted to hear.

    Hence the Murdoch media, which include Fox TV News push the "forever Trump" point of view at every opportunity, even when the president tells lies and exercises poor judgment, and on the other side you have CNN, which is owned by AT&T, adopting the "never Trump" angle at every opportunity, even when the president tells the truth and shows good judgment.

    Each side has its champion knights in armor. Fox New has Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson wearing the Trump colors, and CNN has Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper as its white knights sporting the favors of The Rest.

    Everything becomes polarized and simplified. Every day it is all about Trump, did he tell the truth, did he lie, ad nauseam.

    Really in a time of a health crisis the news media should be telling us what people all over this vast nation are doing to address the crisis.

    What the Department of Health and Human Services is doing, what the CDC is doing, how Medicare is addressing the added challenges, talking to the highly paid executives of health insurance companies and hospital corporations, to whom we are legally obliged to pay health insurance premiums to find out how THEY are addressing the increased demand for services, the governors of states most affected to find out what influences their thinking and planning, to hospital executive to find out what they are doing, and how their states may be most affected.

    Instead everything is all about Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand. Leave the old bugger alone, for gods sake! Report on what is really going on and stop making it about Trump.

    Replies: @peterike, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @res, @Charles Erwin Wilson's phone

    Some years ago there was a broadcasting regulation that in political discussions both sides of any argument had to be given equal time, which meant that you would have a lot of nutcases brought onto TV to make fringe arguments, rather than bringing on wise and experienced people who were well-informed about the pros and cons of any particular issue.

    When this regulation came to an end, I applauded it.

    Anyone know what the current status is of rules of this form? I see two primary forms (it appears to me you may be conflating them).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCC_fairness_doctrine

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal-time_rule superseded by
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_Act_of_1934

    The former (FCC fairness doctrine) was eliminated as policy and removed as a rule (why the need to do this as well?) in 2011.

    The Communications Act of 1934 had changes in the 1980s and 1990s, but I am having trouble understanding exactly what resulted. A very relevant part of the wikipedia entry appears garbled to me.

    One major amendment to the Communications Act of 1934 was made on September 7, 1999. The FCC ruled “that a broadcast station should not be allowed to refuse a request for political advertising time solely on the ground that the station does not sell or program such lengths of time”. Politics have had many effects and changes to the act that are not in the “best interest of the public” thus taking away some of the power given to the FCC from the Act.[20]

    Back to you.

    Hence the Murdoch media, which include Fox TV News push the “forever Trump” point of view at every opportunity, even when the president tells lies and exercises poor judgment, and on the other side you have CNN, which is owned by AT&T, adopting the “never Trump” angle at every opportunity, even when the president tells the truth and shows good judgment.

    This is a very interesting characterization for two reasons.
    1. Fox was against Trump before it was for him. Or have you forgotten the Megyn Kelly controversy?
    2. You write that as if it were Fox vs. CNN. When in reality it is essentially Fox vs. every other MSM outlet. That is extremely misleading IMHO.

    Each side has its champion knights in armor. Fox New has Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson wearing the Trump colors, and CNN has Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper as its white knights sporting the favors of The Rest.

    Again, you act as if the sides were represented by relatively even numbers in the media.

    Everything becomes polarized and simplified. Every day it is all about Trump, did he tell the truth, did he lie, ad nauseam.

    Would you seriously argue that this is not primarily caused by the non-Fox MSM being nonstop “Orange man bad” regardless of the actual topic at hand?

    Report on what is really going on and stop making it about Trump.

    At least we agree on this.

    • Agree: BenKenobi, Bill Jones
  99. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @NickG

    Any instructions for the DIY crowd on a similar mask? How many filters did your wife use for one of these masks?

    Replies: @NickG, @Simon Tugmutton

    Any instructions for the DIY crowd on a similar mask? How many filters did your wife use for one of these masks?

    2 masks per filter. Will post instructions plus photo tomorrow, we tried 5 designs before settling on one. I wanted the straps around the head, not the ears. I know enough to know that ear straps will get sore very quickly.

    • Thanks: Lockean Proviso
  100. @NickG
    Here in Pretoria, South Africa, we have been locked-down since last Thurs. I'm wearing a mask whilst out shopping at the local supermarket, which I've done once so far since Thursday. It was made by my wife from a bunch of vacuum cleaner HEPA filter bags I managed to buy.

    I suspect this is as good as most commercial N95/ FFP3 masks and certainly better than the packet of FFP2 masks I have at home I bought for angle grinding during the home renovations we recently did.

    A HEPA filter — high-efficiency particulate absorbing — is specified to stop 99.95% of particles of 3 microns and under.

    Short English language video from the Czech government espousing universal mask usage — How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus?

    Replies: @wren, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Mr McKenna, @unit472, @Jack D, @Father O'Hara

    If you live in SA,you’ve got bigger problems than COVID,pal.

  101. res says:
    @Luke Lea
    Is a universal requirement to wear masks a possible alternative to shutting down the economy? I'm no expert, but if it reduced the reproductive number R0 to less than one, wouldn't the virus die out before herd immunity is reached?

    A related question: what about Lubos Motl's argument that shutting down the economy is likely to do nothing, or almost nothing, to reduce the final death toll, since the lockdown cannot be continued very long? He references this paper in defense of his position: https://tinyurl.com/uqn38w4

    Does it take a theory to beat a theory, even a bad one?

    Replies: @guest007, @Jack D, @res

    That paper is interesting. This seems like a good summary. Emphasis in original.

    Two months of mitigations have not improved the outcome of the epidemic in this model, it has just delayed its terrible effects. In fact, because of the role of weather in the model presented in the Kristof article, two months of mitigations actually results in 50% more infections and deaths than two weeks of mitigations, since it pushes the peak of the epidemic to the winter instead of the summer, whose warmer months this model assumes causes lower transmission rates.

    P.S. Do you have a link to that specific Lubos Motl post? I am having trouble knowing which is the right one since he is so prolific. For example:
    https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-enthusiasm-with-which-west-commits.html

    • Replies: @Polymath
    @res

    Motl is right a lot more often than he is wrong, but he doesn’t have the data necessary to justify the level of confidence he has in his current opinions about this.

    Replies: @res

  102. OT: Peter Hitchens writes eloquently about the End of Britain:

    We Love Big Brother – Peter Hitchens

    My beloved city, Oxford, is closed and silent, like a large, well-ordered cemetery. Its stone buildings still glow in the cold spring sun like a vision of the Celestial City. But they cannot have known such desolate silence in centuries.

    …I think this week was when the actual spirit of those thousand years was finally chased out of the remaining serene groves and ancient arches where it still shyly lingered. This is what the end I have long feared actually looks like. We love Big Brother… England and Britain as I knew them are gone. They are now nothing more than geographical descriptions of a patch of land.

  103. Anon[170] • Disclaimer says:

    Since the obese are more subject to dying from Covid-19, this article about obesity in New York is interesting:

    https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-metro-new-yorkers-more-obese-nychanes20180708-story.html

    “While obesity rates stayed stable among women, they grew among men. Blacks had the highest rate of obesity at 37%, and Asians experienced the greatest increase in obesity from 20% to 29%. People who had no more than a high school education, no health insurance and who were immigrants also showed a higher than average increase in obesity rates.”

    “The local weight gain coincided with a city-wide decrease in eating meals at home, according to Pasquale Rummo, who headed the study. Ordering takeout and restaurant dining rose from 2.7 meals a week to 3.8 meals a week, an increase linked to the obesity surge.”

    “In other reports, diabetes rates grew moderately from 13% to 16% over the 10-year period between studies, with the highest proportion among Asians at 24% and the lowest among whites at 7%.”

    I didn’t know that Asians have seen their diabetes rates increase quite a bit. It seems Asians can’t tolerate a typical American diet.

  104. Anon[170] • Disclaimer says:
    @Coemgen
    @Jack D


    Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control
     
    My wife say's that's old news now. Independent Chinese language media are reporting that martial law is being re-enacted in China (including Beijing and Shanghai) due to an increase in COVID-19 infections after the Chinese government eased up on travel restrictions. I haven't seen this reported in Western media (yet).

    Replies: @Anon

    If the Chinese freak out every time they have a batch of 100 Covid deaths pop up, they’ll have martial law for years.

    Not that Chinese every had much of any other sort of law. Soon, even the Chinese will be extremely tired of their leaders. The Communist elite can’t take away everyone’s jobs and ability to buy food for years on end without a massive social eruption.

    • Troll: Daniel Chieh
  105. Eerily prophetic Bible stuff:

    You shall not covid your neighbor’s house. You shall not covid your neighbor’s wife, or his male or female servant, his ox or donkey, or anything that belongs to your neighbor.

    — Exodus 20:17

  106. The Centre for Evidenced Based Medicine estimates the IFR for Chinavirus to be between 0.1% and 0.26%, making it the flu.

    Can we stop pretending this is a Zionist bioweapon/end of the world, and instead study global hysteria and other lunacy?

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

  107. Your house is probably safe, especially in current conditions. If you have a house like a TV sitcom, with wacky visitors every hour and ladder-scaling boyfriends at the upper windows, then yeah you have to agonize over handwashing. Otherwise handwashing is a function of potential exposure to new material, which means that the morning vitamin dispensing doesn’t rate any. If some vitamin bottles themselves are new then consider washing them. Paradoxically the most handwashing-worthy time is when you’re out and about, and cannot wash your hands, thus: gloves.

  108. @res
    @Luke Lea

    That paper is interesting. This seems like a good summary. Emphasis in original.


    Two months of mitigations have not improved the outcome of the epidemic in this model, it has just delayed its terrible effects. In fact, because of the role of weather in the model presented in the Kristof article, two months of mitigations actually results in 50% more infections and deaths than two weeks of mitigations, since it pushes the peak of the epidemic to the winter instead of the summer, whose warmer months this model assumes causes lower transmission rates.
     
    P.S. Do you have a link to that specific Lubos Motl post? I am having trouble knowing which is the right one since he is so prolific. For example:
    https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-enthusiasm-with-which-west-commits.html

    Replies: @Polymath

    Motl is right a lot more often than he is wrong, but he doesn’t have the data necessary to justify the level of confidence he has in his current opinions about this.

    • Replies: @res
    @Polymath


    Motl is right a lot more often than he is wrong, but he doesn’t have the data necessary to justify the level of confidence he has in his current opinions about this.
     
    I'm not that familiar with Motl's writing, but that seems like a good take on him overall.
  109. @Jonathan Mason
    @peterike

    Biden too, but he gets less press with regard to the epidemic.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    You’re a doctor. What would you think of an opinion about Trump whose argument hinged on expelling toxins from the body by supercharging orgone with free energy?

  110. HA says:
    @Eustace
    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.

    I even asked my mother, who was a working adult, how she coped during December 1969 (when the HK'68 virus hit Europe real hard)? Answer: she never heard that there was a brutal flu ravaging her country at the time. Not then. Not now. Not in the intervening 50+ years. She learnt it from me only when I asked the question.

    I also noted that scientific papers about the 1957 and 1968 viruses are uncannily coy about R0 (contagiousness) and CFR (case fatality rate), probably because the data is incredibly noisy and hard to get. The papers focus almost exclusively on excess mortality. By country, by age group, whatever, but excess mortality. That's not a statistic I have seen bandied about much this year, and I doubt it would look frightening.

    Replies: @HA, @Chrisnonymous, @Hail

    “I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.”

    Yeah, this is just a variation of the idiotic “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything” approach, which I’ve also seen bandied about here. By the time you get to the point where you know it’s worse, it’s too late to take the steps needed to limit the damage. That’s the problem with exponential growth people seem to have real trouble comprehending.

    “That’s not a statistic I have seen bandied about much this year, and I doubt it would look frightening.”

    Again, waiting until it “looks frightening” is really idiotic advice. I’m not saying the most likely post-verdict analysis of coronavirus isn’t “nothingburger” (at least, in comparison with a bad flu season). But that’s beside the point. Assuming the next hurricane won’t be a category IV isn’t great social policy, even though the vast majority of time that winds up being a correct assumption in hindsight.

    Once there’s enough testing to ensure that this thing is going to be no worse than a bad flu season even without any safety measures taken, then fine. Go ahead full blast, or sequester just the elderly and the Iranians, or just wear masks in public. Whatever it takes to get things back to normal. But don’t be an ass and wait until the damage is evident before taking measures. That’s the kind of lunacy that the Communist apparatchik tools in Wuhan tried, and is the main reason we’re in this mess.

    • Replies: @RSDB
    @HA


    Yeah, this is just a variation of the idiotic “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything” approach
     
    It's not a variation of any kind of approach, because it's not an approach. There is no public policy proposal in the comment to which you are responding. It's quite possible, even likely, that the commenter to whom you are responding has some sort of policy proposal, but if so he didn't propose it in this particular comment.

    Replies: @Eustace, @HA

    , @Eustace
    @HA

    My post cannot be fairly characterized as a variant of: “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything”. It can be fairly characterized as "let's take the same policy measures as in 1957 and 1968", unless there is credible evidence that it's going to be a lot worse. Clearly, when 1968 came around, we did not initially know whether it was going to be like 1957 or would generate millions of dead in the street, did we? And yet we did not lock-down the world economy just on the off-chance, did we?

    If you really want to go down that route, I would say: "wait until there is incontrovertible evidence that this virus is more virulent than the 1957 and 1968 ones before you impose a huge welfare burden on healthy, productive people by shutting down the economy". As far as I can tell, such evidence is sorely lacking as of now.

    Replies: @HA, @Hail

  111. @res
    @Anonymous

    Really? From 2/12/2020.

    https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0212-cdc-telebriefing-transcript.html


    CDC does not currently recommend the use of face masks for the general public. This virus is not spreading in the community.
     
    Should I look for more examples? Or maybe you could present some evidence supporting your comment. That is generally good practice when accusing other people of "mischaracterizing things."

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    Your example is different from what AnotherDad is implying in the quote above.

    On February 12, there was not community transmission in 99% of the US, maybe 100%. “Community transmission/spread” is a technical term meaning that the upstream and downstream contacts of infected people cannot be traced. If there is no community transmission, masks are superfluous.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Chrisnonymous

    Right, so this was at a time when we could have still stopped the epidemic. But the CDC totally blew it and let it out into the community.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    , @res
    @Chrisnonymous

    Perhaps. It was meant as only one example. Do you have any examples showing the CDC changed that guidance? They only seem to be considering doing so in the last few days.

    Here is an article about masks from March 2nd.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cdc-says-americans-dont-have-to-wear-facemasks-because-of-coronavirus-2020-01-30

  112. @Jack D
    @Luke Lea

    The argument for the lockdown is mainly that it flattens the curve so that the medical system doesn't get overwhelmed (as NYC's is teetering on the brink of). Once the system saturates, there are no longer enough people to answer 911 calls, so not only Chinese Virus victims but people with heart attacks, etc. don't make it to the hospital. Overworked medical personnel get sick worsening the problem. You run out of ventilators, ICU beds, etc. Piles of corpses fill refrigerated trailers as the morgues are full. This makes for very bad cosmetics (which the media loves to dwell upon - very good for the ratings) even if it doesn't change the # of people who ultimately die.

    We are accustomed to putting everyone in respiratory distress on a ventilator whether they are a hopeless case or not and leaving them there until they flatline. Even if you don't WANT to be put on one or want to be taken off, you are going to have to fight the hospital because they make money off of people in the ICU, big money. And there are those who are opposed to "rationing health care" - God forbid that everyone in America doesn't get all you can eat unlimited health care even if it consumes our entire GDP. So it is more bad cosmetics if they start unplugging people who are on ventilators even if 97% were not going to make it anyway.

    There are real issues. People are dying alone and don't even get funerals anymore. This is not normal. It would be nice to have some type of normalcy.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    The argument for the lockdown is mainly that it flattens the curve so that…It would be nice to have some type of normalcy.

    We must destroy normalcy in order to save normalcy?

  113. Depression Panic!

    Industry Revenue Declines:

    Movie Theaters: -100%

    Airlines: TSA passenger traffic -94%

    Hotels: Revenue -70% as of week ending 3/21

    Fine Dining: Open Table reports reservations down 100% since 3/21, 90% decline level hit 3/18.

    Overall Restaurant: 48% revenue decline between 3/1 and 3/21, 30,000 locations permanently closed, 110,000 further locations on likely permanent closure list

    Pizza: Dominoes closes 1400 locations worldwide

    GDP: 1st year of the Great Depression GDP declined 8.5%. Worst year, 1932, declined 12.9%. Goldman and Morgan Stanley’s Q2 2020 GDP projections are -30% and -34%.

    1982 and 2009 saw GDP declines of 1.8% and 2.5%.

    Electricity Use in Tokyo: down 60% from Feb to March.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @Lot

    I'm not sure what people expected. -5% gdp on the year is a good back of the napkin estimate for one month's closure. The question is, can we restart it and at least get back to "normal?"

    Anecdotally , in my city I know of a few restaurants and gyms who I would've thought were in good shape and they tell me they're almost done and will be dead if we go 30 days. On top of that, these crazy unemployment terms from the bailout will probably make it hard to get workers back to work initially.

    This may be worse than I expected, and I was definitely one of the ones on here not wanting to shut every thing down without some plan for the economic fallout. I hope I'm wrong on this.

  114. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @Jack D


    Do we not put GFCI’s in bathrooms
     
    Gonorrhea fecal contamination interface? TMI, Jack :(

    Replies: @Jack D

    Ground fault circuit interrupter – those outlets with the little reset button (and the test button you are supposed to press monthly but no one ever does). This (along with the fact that no one has a tube radio to listen to anymore while they are taking a bath) is why people don’t electrocute themselves in the bathtub nearly as much as they used to in the good old days.

    These units don’t last forever (for $10 you get planned obsolescence) and the older ones fail in the live position so do yourself a favor and press the little test button and it should pop off instantly (then you press reset and the outlet should come back live). If it doesn’t it needs to be replaced.

  115. anon[593] • Disclaimer says:

    Michigan governor reverses her position on hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine aka Trump Pills.

    Something must have focused her attention.

    https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2020/03/31/gov-whitmer-reverses-course-on-coronavirus-drugs-is-now-asking-feds-for-hydroxychloroquine-and-chloroquine

    Gov. Gretchen Whitmer drew fire from some on the right after the Michigan Department of Licensing and Regulatory Affairs (LARA) sent a letter last week threatening “administrative action” against doctors who prescribed two experimental drugs that could potentially help coronavirus patients.

    The Whitmer administration has since removed the language threatening doctors from the letter and is now asking the federal government to send shipments of the drugs, Bridge magazine reports. The Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency authorization for the antimalarial drugs hydroxychloroquine sulfate and chloroquine phosphate on Saturday.

  116. @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D


    Much of went on had to do (STILL has to do) with anti-Trumpism. Hating Trump and his supporters is much more important to our elites than controlling an epidemic. So whatever Trump tweets, they tweet the opposite.
     
    I agree to some extent, but this is something to do with our media. Some years ago there was a broadcasting regulation that in political discussions both sides of any argument had to be given equal time, which meant that you would have a lot of nutcases brought onto TV to make fringe arguments, rather than bringing on wise and experienced people who were well-informed about the pros and cons of any particular issue.

    When this regulation came to an end, I applauded it. But unfortunately it has turned out that instead of leading to more balanced and sensible debate, it simply led to a polarization of different media that would tailor the news for different markets and feed people whatever they wanted to hear.

    Hence the Murdoch media, which include Fox TV News push the "forever Trump" point of view at every opportunity, even when the president tells lies and exercises poor judgment, and on the other side you have CNN, which is owned by AT&T, adopting the "never Trump" angle at every opportunity, even when the president tells the truth and shows good judgment.

    Each side has its champion knights in armor. Fox New has Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson wearing the Trump colors, and CNN has Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper as its white knights sporting the favors of The Rest.

    Everything becomes polarized and simplified. Every day it is all about Trump, did he tell the truth, did he lie, ad nauseam.

    Really in a time of a health crisis the news media should be telling us what people all over this vast nation are doing to address the crisis.

    What the Department of Health and Human Services is doing, what the CDC is doing, how Medicare is addressing the added challenges, talking to the highly paid executives of health insurance companies and hospital corporations, to whom we are legally obliged to pay health insurance premiums to find out how THEY are addressing the increased demand for services, the governors of states most affected to find out what influences their thinking and planning, to hospital executive to find out what they are doing, and how their states may be most affected.

    Instead everything is all about Trump, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand. Leave the old bugger alone, for gods sake! Report on what is really going on and stop making it about Trump.

    Replies: @peterike, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @res, @Charles Erwin Wilson's phone

    Fox is moving left, and has been for some time now. They just fired Trish Regan for being pro-Trump. Murdoch boys want in with the kool kids

    • Replies: @HA
    @Charles Erwin Wilson's phone

    "They just fired Trish Regan for being pro-Trump."

    For being pro-Trump? Sadly, abrupt about-face shifts are rarely graceful, and Fox has done a lot of scrambling and retconning. Being pro-Trump has little to do with any of that. What, you're going to claim that Tucker Carlson is now anti-Trump?

    The Fox Network's pathetically clumsy about-face on China flu:


    While a change of tone has finally come from many voices on Fox News, Tucker Carlson was ahead of the curve.

    As early as January 28, Carlson was warning viewers of the coronavirus on his show — calling it “bizarre” that immigration between the United States and China, the origin of the virus, was running freely...On March 6, Carlson warned viewers of the potential economic and social ramifications which could be felt by the coronavirus outbreak, which the host predicted would become more widespread.
     

  117. moshe says:
    @wren
    https://www.twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1244418163741282308

    Replies: @moshe

    Will someone remind me again why we didn’t just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people and then after pretty much every susceptible person got it, whether they realize it or not, we had heard immunity and the old people could return to active life?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @moshe

    Say that hydroxychloroquine turns out to be effective at preventing a mild infection from getting worse, but not good at prevent a bad infection from turning into a severe lifethreatening one? (I follow Ice_9 on twitter, who is leaning in that direction from reading the preprints).

    That might suggest a herd immunity strategy could work -- once we have near infinite amounts of the pills.

    But we don't have the evidence yet and we don't have billions of pills yet.

    Replies: @Charon

    , @Hail
    @moshe


    why we didn’t just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people
     
    People of the future will ask this, whenever occasion comes to discuss this shabby-looking affair.

    All the data is against the Doomers, and has been for weeks. The data keeps getting stronger and more robust. All the data says the shutdowns were wrong, like blowing off a leg with a shotgun in response to unspecific and unserious foot pain. After becoming aware of the unspecific foot pain, in comes a quack doctor who says, "Oh that's a NEW kind of foot pain! From China! Trust me on this, it will kill you like Ebola. Let me get my hazmat suit..." Then he begins shouting at nurses to evacuate, you might contaminate them...

    Alas, the CoronaPanic-pushers control the media and can easily induce of auxiliaries (of various stripes and motivations) in social media and elsewhere to ramp-up the CoronaDoom hysteria, louder and louder, keep shoving Big Scary Numbers at people to keep them scared and in line.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @moshe, @Charon

  118. Lyingpress, with its long-established obsession with Trump (and its highly suspicious new obsession with hydrochloroquine): IDIOT TRUMP SUPPORTER KILLS HIMSELF WITH AQUARIUM CLEANER
    Released partially redacted court documents: YEAH, ABOUT THAT …
    She assaulted her husband 7 months into marriage. Punching and swinging at him with a “decorative bird house on a wooden pole” during an argument about divorcing.
    She also donated frequently to anti-Trump, pro-democrat causes.
    https://www.libertyheadlines.com/ariz-aquarium-cleaner-dem-donors/

    • Replies: @ben tillman
    @J.Ross

    Yes, it appears that she murdered her husband to solve her personal problem and produce political propaganda all in one fell swoop.

  119. @Eustace
    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.

    I even asked my mother, who was a working adult, how she coped during December 1969 (when the HK'68 virus hit Europe real hard)? Answer: she never heard that there was a brutal flu ravaging her country at the time. Not then. Not now. Not in the intervening 50+ years. She learnt it from me only when I asked the question.

    I also noted that scientific papers about the 1957 and 1968 viruses are uncannily coy about R0 (contagiousness) and CFR (case fatality rate), probably because the data is incredibly noisy and hard to get. The papers focus almost exclusively on excess mortality. By country, by age group, whatever, but excess mortality. That's not a statistic I have seen bandied about much this year, and I doubt it would look frightening.

    Replies: @HA, @Chrisnonymous, @Hail

    This is a question it’s impossible to answer now since every country is taking measures to lock down. Even if death rates are ultimately low, there will always be the point that, well, if we hadn’t done anything it would have been different.

    The problem is conflating what we see on the news with actual knowledge. For example, it’s not clear how much ventilators help with actual mortality. What we saw in China was a massive attempt to scale up putting people on vents and a massive attempt to keep people off vents. But actually, we don’t know what would have happened if the Chinese government had done nothing. And everyone is now acting to prevent themselves becoming Wuhan. (I don’t know what’s going on in Italy, but neither does anyone else.)

    I don’t think COVID-19 is a hoax or that we have necessarily done the wrong things, but I think we should be more circumspect at this point. We need to be serious about the cost-benefit. Otherwise, we will be in a position of having to wreck our economy every few years when novel pathogens emerge.

    • Replies: @Eustace
    @Chrisnonymous


    This is a question it’s impossible to answer now since every country is taking measures to lock down. Even if death rates are ultimately low, there will always be the point that, well, if we hadn’t done anything it would have been different.
     
    It is a "heads I win, tails you lose" kind of situation. If the excess mortality turns out to be a nothingburger, as is rather likely, then the government will say that it was thanks to the lock-down.

    If the excess mortality turns out significant, the government will say that it took unprecedented lock-down measures to control it. They will even say that it is the fault of the doubters and the disobedient that lock-down failed to bring a good outcome.

    In 1857, the prophetess Nongqawuse told the pastoral Xhosa people to slaughter all their cattle so that the spirits of their ancestors would resurrect and throw the British out of South Africa. When the spirits failed to resurrect, she blamed the doubters and the disobedient (amagogotya) who had refused to kill their cattle. Unfortunately, the other 80% of the Xhosa died of famine.

    Replies: @HA

  120. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Jonathan Mason

    "Instead everything is all about Biden, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand."

    FIFY.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    “Instead everything is all about Biden, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand.”

    Yes, Biden would most likely be just as bad, and also has form as a serial liar. But he is not in power, and perhaps he never will be.

    But Trump is speaking at a press conference as I type this and is casually mentioning that he has spoken to Putin on the phone and has spoken to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia on the phone, and that he expects them to come to an agreement on oil prices within the next few days.

    Then he goes on to say that 99 cents a gallon gasoline is great for a lot of people, because it is like a tax cut, and then he goes on to say that he is having a meeting with oil company executives later this week.

    Then he goes on to day that the US is the world’s top oil producer without mentioning that industry is now in crisis because it has much higher production costs than Saudi Arabia and Russia at a time when there is a global production glut and when both the Russian and Saudi Arabian governments are incredibly dependent on oil exports to fund their governments.

    You just wonder what message he is trying to give the world and why he is not meeting face to face with Putin and the Crown Prince for a summit of the world’s top three oil producers.

    Perhaps his message is buy cheap gas now while you can, because next week it is going to double, but who really knows?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Jonathan Mason

    This is just Trump, being Trump, putting a positive spin on things. If you are a real estate developer and your building is near a noisy highway, it is "close to transportation". Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He's just riffing. Maybe it is because they are used to worshiping their leaders and their sharply creased pants as gods because they have none other.

    Replies: @Charon, @Jonathan Mason, @res, @MEH 0910

  121. @DanHessinMD
    @AnotherDad

    Just yesterday, the CDC issued new guidelines that everyone should eat even more bats. I have been eating as many bats as I can based on the CDC's earlier recommendations but apparently we are not doing enough.

    Replies: @BenKenobi, @Jack D

    • LOL: MEH 0910
  122. @Jonathan Mason
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen


    “Instead everything is all about Biden, an elderly man who obviously has a tenuous grip on reality and cannot remember today what he said yesterday, doing his level best to keep up with things he obviously does not really understand.”
     
    Yes, Biden would most likely be just as bad, and also has form as a serial liar. But he is not in power, and perhaps he never will be.

    But Trump is speaking at a press conference as I type this and is casually mentioning that he has spoken to Putin on the phone and has spoken to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia on the phone, and that he expects them to come to an agreement on oil prices within the next few days.

    Then he goes on to say that 99 cents a gallon gasoline is great for a lot of people, because it is like a tax cut, and then he goes on to say that he is having a meeting with oil company executives later this week.

    Then he goes on to day that the US is the world's top oil producer without mentioning that industry is now in crisis because it has much higher production costs than Saudi Arabia and Russia at a time when there is a global production glut and when both the Russian and Saudi Arabian governments are incredibly dependent on oil exports to fund their governments.

    You just wonder what message he is trying to give the world and why he is not meeting face to face with Putin and the Crown Prince for a summit of the world's top three oil producers.

    Perhaps his message is buy cheap gas now while you can, because next week it is going to double, but who really knows?

    Replies: @Jack D

    This is just Trump, being Trump, putting a positive spin on things. If you are a real estate developer and your building is near a noisy highway, it is “close to transportation”. Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He’s just riffing. Maybe it is because they are used to worshiping their leaders and their sharply creased pants as gods because they have none other.

    • Replies: @Charon
    @Jack D

    Yes it's Trump being Trump but if he had half a brain he'd stop feeding caviar to his enemies in the media and he'd stop being a New York real estate developer for just a little while and act like a serious leader.

    Perverse as it may seem, this nightmare is a golden opportunity for him to step up and achieve greatness. But he's famous for never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    Would the MSM even give him a chance? Probably not, but if we leave everything up to them we are well and truly sunk.

    Replies: @Anon

    , @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D

    Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He’s just riffing.

    Because he is the President of the United States.

    Surely you are not suggesting that he is lying!

    How much do you trust him?

    Would you invest your entire net worth in call options with a 7-day expiration date in companies like Exxon based on that stock tip you just received from the President of the United States about an oil price agreement within a few days? Of course not!

    Here is another POTUS riffing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5Sre4tk5l0

    Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson

    , @res
    @Jack D


    Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle?
     
    Because it allows them to say he is wrong and pretend he is stupid.
    , @MEH 0910
    @Jack D


    This is just Trump, being Trump, putting a positive spin on things. If you are a real estate developer and your building is near a noisy highway, it is “close to transportation”.
     
    Lionel Hutz explains "The Truth"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Nc88_ZEfxg
  123. @moshe
    @wren

    Will someone remind me again why we didn't just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people and then after pretty much every susceptible person got it, whether they realize it or not, we had heard immunity and the old people could return to active life?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Hail

    Say that hydroxychloroquine turns out to be effective at preventing a mild infection from getting worse, but not good at prevent a bad infection from turning into a severe lifethreatening one? (I follow Ice_9 on twitter, who is leaning in that direction from reading the preprints).

    That might suggest a herd immunity strategy could work — once we have near infinite amounts of the pills.

    But we don’t have the evidence yet and we don’t have billions of pills yet.

    • Replies: @Charon
    @Steve Sailer

    Why are medics who test positive taken out of commission? Seems like they'd be the perfect people to work on covid patients. And it would surely address the manpower shortage in our hospitals.

  124. Anonymous[602] • Disclaimer says:

    Let’s look on the bright side of COVID-19. It could be worse. Let’s all be thankful it is not this:

    We should all be thnakful that a mad scientist did not genetically engineer an ultra-aggressive strain of rabies to erradicate us all.

    And remember: 98% of the Earth’s biomass is composed of viruses and bacteria. This is *their* planet. We just live in it. COVID-19 is just a friendly reminder from our unicellular and acellular friends of this fact. And that our divisions, being on the Right, being on the Left, being an American, being an Italian, etc, deep down are petty and insignificant concerns in the bigger scheme of things…

    • Replies: @Charon
    @Anonymous


    We should all be thnakful that a mad scientist did not genetically engineer an ultra-aggressive strain of rabies to erradicate us all.
     
    Who needs mad scientists when we have Chinese. What's next year's virus, any idea yet?
  125. @Steve Sailer
    @moshe

    Say that hydroxychloroquine turns out to be effective at preventing a mild infection from getting worse, but not good at prevent a bad infection from turning into a severe lifethreatening one? (I follow Ice_9 on twitter, who is leaning in that direction from reading the preprints).

    That might suggest a herd immunity strategy could work -- once we have near infinite amounts of the pills.

    But we don't have the evidence yet and we don't have billions of pills yet.

    Replies: @Charon

    Why are medics who test positive taken out of commission? Seems like they’d be the perfect people to work on covid patients. And it would surely address the manpower shortage in our hospitals.

    • Agree: Lockean Proviso
  126. @guest007
    @Luke Lea

    China seems to have saved their economy without a two month lock down without everyone getting sick. However, there is no way that everyone is going to willing go back to work now no matter how bad the economy is.

    Replies: @Thea

    China’s economy is pretty dependent on our economy for trade so the worst is yet to come.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @Thea

    Only 18% of the exports from China go to the U.S. and some of those are things like surgical masks that the U.S. is desperate to purchase.

    https://www.thebalance.com/china-economy-facts-effect-on-us-economy-3306345


    The economies that will recover fastest are those that get past the pandemic fastest. That is why all of the government decisions that cause more people to become infected are bad for the economy.

  127. @Anonymous
    Let's look on the bright side of COVID-19. It could be worse. Let's all be thankful it is not this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGKNxtZLXIE

    https://youtu.be/ery9nXHEu5Y

    We should all be thnakful that a mad scientist did not genetically engineer an ultra-aggressive strain of rabies to erradicate us all.

    And remember: 98% of the Earth's biomass is composed of viruses and bacteria. This is *their* planet. We just live in it. COVID-19 is just a friendly reminder from our unicellular and acellular friends of this fact. And that our divisions, being on the Right, being on the Left, being an American, being an Italian, etc, deep down are petty and insignificant concerns in the bigger scheme of things...

    Replies: @Charon

    We should all be thnakful that a mad scientist did not genetically engineer an ultra-aggressive strain of rabies to erradicate us all.

    Who needs mad scientists when we have Chinese. What’s next year’s virus, any idea yet?

  128. @Jack D
    @Jonathan Mason

    This is just Trump, being Trump, putting a positive spin on things. If you are a real estate developer and your building is near a noisy highway, it is "close to transportation". Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He's just riffing. Maybe it is because they are used to worshiping their leaders and their sharply creased pants as gods because they have none other.

    Replies: @Charon, @Jonathan Mason, @res, @MEH 0910

    Yes it’s Trump being Trump but if he had half a brain he’d stop feeding caviar to his enemies in the media and he’d stop being a New York real estate developer for just a little while and act like a serious leader.

    Perverse as it may seem, this nightmare is a golden opportunity for him to step up and achieve greatness. But he’s famous for never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    Would the MSM even give him a chance? Probably not, but if we leave everything up to them we are well and truly sunk.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Charon

    How do you step up and achieve greatness during a pandemic? There is no magic wand Trump can wave to solve the problem. More rhetoric doesn't make a disease go away. The only thing any of us can do with Covid-19 is cope with it. Trump is coping with the situation, and so are our doctors and nurses.

  129. @Jack D
    @anon


    Phil Roth? The list goes on, and it’s all about some fragile libtard having issues with Daddy
     
    By all accounts (especially Roth's own) he had a happy loving childhood and a great relationship with his parents for as long as they lived. He admired his father so much that he wrote a book about him. And his parents felt the same way - Roth told a story about how when Portnoy's Complaint came out, he sent his parents on a cruise with his newfound riches and his father brought a pile of the books with him on the trip and every time they became friendly with another couple on the cruise, he gave them a copy of the book, autographed from Philip Roth's father. I don't know about those other guys but you're barking up the wrong tree when it comes to Roth.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    A lot of high achievers, such as Philip Roth, Tom Wolfe and John Updike, grew up in highly supportive families.

  130. @Jack D
    @Jonathan Mason

    This is just Trump, being Trump, putting a positive spin on things. If you are a real estate developer and your building is near a noisy highway, it is "close to transportation". Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He's just riffing. Maybe it is because they are used to worshiping their leaders and their sharply creased pants as gods because they have none other.

    Replies: @Charon, @Jonathan Mason, @res, @MEH 0910

    Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He’s just riffing.

    Because he is the President of the United States.

    Surely you are not suggesting that he is lying!

    How much do you trust him?

    Would you invest your entire net worth in call options with a 7-day expiration date in companies like Exxon based on that stock tip you just received from the President of the United States about an oil price agreement within a few days? Of course not!

    Here is another POTUS riffing.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson
    @Jonathan Mason


    How much do you trust him?
     
    More than I trust you.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

  131. @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    We’re not really good at imagining the future. How many futuristic depictions of the twenty first century showed people walking around with cellphones?


    https://d14e8oeg5e788p.cloudfront.net/content/54555/19f5f7db3105e59424b25a01a53c715f.jpg

    In 2001: A Space Odyssey (made in 1968), the guys Facetime on their iPads:

    http://www.geekologie.com/2011/08/24/ipads-in-space-odyssey.jpg

    I would say that Kubrick came pretty damn close.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous

    Heinlein wrote a mobile phone into the opening scene of “Space Cadet” around 1950 — the hero is riding his horse out on the range in New Mexico when he gets a phone call that sets the plot in motion. But I can’t recall too many other uses of mobile phones in subsequent Heinlein novels.

    Mobile phones were a challenge for plot construction into the 21st century. The first movie I can recall where mobile phones were fully integrated into the plot without being the main aspect of the plot was “The Departed” in 2006.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Steve Sailer


    Mobile phones were a challenge for plot construction into the 21st century. The first movie I can recall where mobile phones were fully integrated into the plot without being the main aspect of the plot was “The Departed” in 2006.

     

    Yes, but remember that 'The Departed' was just a remake of the (superior, in my opinion) HK-produced 'Infernal Affairs' from 2002. Mobile phones already played their integral part in the plot of the original.
  132. @moshe
    @wren

    Will someone remind me again why we didn't just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people and then after pretty much every susceptible person got it, whether they realize it or not, we had heard immunity and the old people could return to active life?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Hail

    why we didn’t just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people

    People of the future will ask this, whenever occasion comes to discuss this shabby-looking affair.

    All the data is against the Doomers, and has been for weeks. The data keeps getting stronger and more robust. All the data says the shutdowns were wrong, like blowing off a leg with a shotgun in response to unspecific and unserious foot pain. After becoming aware of the unspecific foot pain, in comes a quack doctor who says, “Oh that’s a NEW kind of foot pain! From China! Trust me on this, it will kill you like Ebola. Let me get my hazmat suit…” Then he begins shouting at nurses to evacuate, you might contaminate them…

    Alas, the CoronaPanic-pushers control the media and can easily induce of auxiliaries (of various stripes and motivations) in social media and elsewhere to ramp-up the CoronaDoom hysteria, louder and louder, keep shoving Big Scary Numbers at people to keep them scared and in line.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Hail

    Hopefully people remember this and give the Democrats a disaster result in November.

    , @moshe
    @Hail

    The real answer is that this war isn't entirely over the shooting of Franz Ferdinand.

    Many moods and motives conspired toward this shutdown and over all those moods may be right. It needed a name - and an excuse - and Covid19 sounded like a good one.

    Hey, I *like* religious movements and sentiments generally speaking. And I'm willing to give Quarantinism the friendly benefit of the doubt.

    But only a fool actually *believes* the religious catechisms or sticks by their literal meaning when they start to cost too much.

    It's time for a Reformed Quarantinism, at least for those (few?) of us who enjoy meeting people face to face.

    , @Charon
    @Hail


    All the data is against the Doomers, and has been for weeks. The data keeps getting stronger and more robust. All the data says the shutdowns were wrong
     
    EUROPE
    Italy’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported

    Italy is undercounting thousands of deaths caused by the virus in the areas worst hit by the pandemic, a WSJ analysis shows, indicating the human toll may end up being much greater than official data indicate.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

    Replies: @Hail

  133. Charles Erwin Wilson [AKA "Charles Erwin Wilson Three"] says:
    @Jonathan Mason
    @Jack D

    Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He’s just riffing.

    Because he is the President of the United States.

    Surely you are not suggesting that he is lying!

    How much do you trust him?

    Would you invest your entire net worth in call options with a 7-day expiration date in companies like Exxon based on that stock tip you just received from the President of the United States about an oil price agreement within a few days? Of course not!

    Here is another POTUS riffing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5Sre4tk5l0

    Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson

    How much do you trust him?

    More than I trust you.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Charles Erwin Wilson


    More than I trust you.
     
    So do you believe that a Russian-Saudi accord on oil quotas is expected within a few days? And what percentage of your net worth would you bet on it?

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

  134. @Hail
    @moshe


    why we didn’t just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people
     
    People of the future will ask this, whenever occasion comes to discuss this shabby-looking affair.

    All the data is against the Doomers, and has been for weeks. The data keeps getting stronger and more robust. All the data says the shutdowns were wrong, like blowing off a leg with a shotgun in response to unspecific and unserious foot pain. After becoming aware of the unspecific foot pain, in comes a quack doctor who says, "Oh that's a NEW kind of foot pain! From China! Trust me on this, it will kill you like Ebola. Let me get my hazmat suit..." Then he begins shouting at nurses to evacuate, you might contaminate them...

    Alas, the CoronaPanic-pushers control the media and can easily induce of auxiliaries (of various stripes and motivations) in social media and elsewhere to ramp-up the CoronaDoom hysteria, louder and louder, keep shoving Big Scary Numbers at people to keep them scared and in line.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @moshe, @Charon

    Hopefully people remember this and give the Democrats a disaster result in November.

  135. moshe says:
    @Hail
    @moshe


    why we didn’t just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people
     
    People of the future will ask this, whenever occasion comes to discuss this shabby-looking affair.

    All the data is against the Doomers, and has been for weeks. The data keeps getting stronger and more robust. All the data says the shutdowns were wrong, like blowing off a leg with a shotgun in response to unspecific and unserious foot pain. After becoming aware of the unspecific foot pain, in comes a quack doctor who says, "Oh that's a NEW kind of foot pain! From China! Trust me on this, it will kill you like Ebola. Let me get my hazmat suit..." Then he begins shouting at nurses to evacuate, you might contaminate them...

    Alas, the CoronaPanic-pushers control the media and can easily induce of auxiliaries (of various stripes and motivations) in social media and elsewhere to ramp-up the CoronaDoom hysteria, louder and louder, keep shoving Big Scary Numbers at people to keep them scared and in line.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @moshe, @Charon

    The real answer is that this war isn’t entirely over the shooting of Franz Ferdinand.

    Many moods and motives conspired toward this shutdown and over all those moods may be right. It needed a name – and an excuse – and Covid19 sounded like a good one.

    Hey, I *like* religious movements and sentiments generally speaking. And I’m willing to give Quarantinism the friendly benefit of the doubt.

    But only a fool actually *believes* the religious catechisms or sticks by their literal meaning when they start to cost too much.

    It’s time for a Reformed Quarantinism, at least for those (few?) of us who enjoy meeting people face to face.

    • LOL: Hail
  136. @AnotherDad
    @Jack D

    That’s really apropos of nothing.
     

    It's apropos of perspective. A good thing to have as everyone, you, me--even Steve--obsess over this latest gift from China.

    It's interesting how jazz up people can get about this thing... but utterly un-jazzed up about stuff that really, really matters--the Wall, E-verify, ending TPS, the refugee racket, immigration moratorium--that will profoundly affect their children's, their posterity's future.

    The supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils. In seeking to do so, it encounters obstacles which are deeply rooted in human nature.

    One is that by the very order of things such evils are not demonstrable until they have occurred: at each stage in their onset there is room for doubt and for dispute whether they be real or imaginary. By the same token, they attract little attention in comparison with current troubles, which are both indisputable and pressing: whence the besetting temptation of all politics to concern itself with the immediate present at the expense of the future.
     

    ~~~

    On masks -- you're not even "preaching to the converted". Check my comment history ... i've been bitching about this mask nonsense since day one.

    AnotherMom's sewing maching has been whirring this whole month. And, in fact, right now she's walked over to post office to ship some KN95s--that we just got courtesy of her manufacturer in China--plus some of her own masks to a sister-in-law who is undergoing chemo and really at risk. Apparently she goes to the hospital and they actually do not even give her the typical patient mask.

    This is a cluster of amazing magnitude. Ought to be renamed CDP--Center for Disease Propagation.

    Replies: @obwandiyag, @V. Hickel

    By Jack D’s morality you should be selling those for $12 per.

  137. @Ragno
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Before I comment - can we kindly call a moratorium on the die, Boomer, die hot take? I mean considering our host here is (loud stage whisper) a Boomer himself! I got into this with that supremely-annoying (though generally worth reading) Vox Day, in which I pointed out that mf'ers born in 1968 are whistling past the graveyard when they call for no mercy on all mf'ers born in 1964. (His response was to ban me "forever". Well, that's one way to win an argument.)

    Now - masks. Frankly, I'm getting whiplash from the sundry Trusted Authorities insisting Wear One At All Times/Don't Wear One, They Don't Protect You. I personally can't stand them - the N95s trigger my claustrophobia something fierce, and even in a supermarket (such as the one I was in this morning) I could only handle wearing it 4 or 5 minutes at a time before sliding it down past my chin. Thankfully, most of the time I'm outdoors these days, I'm on a bike path adjacent to a large body of water, so between the distance between riders/joggers and a healthy wind coming in off the bay, I don't need or wear one....hallelujah. I know the cloth ones are supposedly woefully inadequate to the task but they sure look a lot less confining to wear - now if only I could buy one without having to watch some Baruch Feldheim* moisten his beak in the process.


    * https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/

    Replies: @V. Hickel

    Watch out you will upset Jack D., Defender of the Faith.

  138. @Mr McKenna
    @NickG

    Is HEPA an international standard? The definition here in the USA is "HEPA air filters must meet a minimum efficiency of 99.97% at 0.3 microns." And it's always the specified dimension and larger particles which are stopped, FWIW.

    Separately, I noted this quote from the CMO at WebMD:


    "If you are immunocompromised, such as receiving cancer treatment or recently treated or even perhaps cancer survivor, you are at greater risk for catching the virus and doing poorly," Dr. John Whyte, chief medical officer, WebMD, told Fox News. "Patients with diabetes and heart disease do worse when they get infected. In addition, if you have lung problems such as severe asthma, you are also at greater risk."

    "Too much alcohol can also contribute to difficulties in fighting infection," Whyte said. "Diabetes, heart disease, kidney and liver problems, respiratory diseases, and even severe obesity can make it much harder to recover if you contract the virus."
     

    All of that makes sense to me except for the "greater risk of catching the virus" part. Easy to see why various factors affect your performance once infected but how does (e.g.) cancer treatment affect your likelihood of getting infected in the first place?

    Replies: @Redman, @Dissident

    Nobody has any clue about how easy it is to catch this or not. All information we’re seeing is based on people who they “know” have had it.

    I’m almost positive I had it (living here in ground zero Westchester) and have recovered. It took a while (about 3 weeks) but I’m finally feeling normal.

    I suspect far more people have been infected and we don’t know. But immunocompromised people are almost always at greater risk of both getting and fighting off infections.

  139. Hail says: • Website
    @Eustace
    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.

    I even asked my mother, who was a working adult, how she coped during December 1969 (when the HK'68 virus hit Europe real hard)? Answer: she never heard that there was a brutal flu ravaging her country at the time. Not then. Not now. Not in the intervening 50+ years. She learnt it from me only when I asked the question.

    I also noted that scientific papers about the 1957 and 1968 viruses are uncannily coy about R0 (contagiousness) and CFR (case fatality rate), probably because the data is incredibly noisy and hard to get. The papers focus almost exclusively on excess mortality. By country, by age group, whatever, but excess mortality. That's not a statistic I have seen bandied about much this year, and I doubt it would look frightening.

    Replies: @HA, @Chrisnonymous, @Hail

    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.

    You are asking the right questions.

    Those of us interested in data over panic have been asking the same. And it turns out, all those who investigate this end up finding that at worst it looks rather like the 1968 flu, which was so minor as to merit people who lived through it not remembering it at all (but assuredly, many especially elderly and sick people did die of it).

    There are an increasing number of specialists and experts sounding the alarm and pointing to this being a fiasco based largely on flat-out bad data/statistics.

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    ________________

    Dr. John Lee (writing March 29), a top expert on the matter in the UK, is now openly challenging the media-mandated Panic Consensus. He makes very good points:

    https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/

    How to understand — and report — figures for ‘COVID deaths’

    Nuance is crucial — not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on health services in coming days.

    If you don’t want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a “notably high flu season” death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.

    ____________________

    Experts, especially in Europe, and for some reason particularly Germany, are now openly opposing the shutdowns and challenging whether this CoronaPanic ever had any basis at all to have gotten anything like this far (given no worldwide media-driven panic of a few of the bad winter flu seasons in the 2010s). The latest top figure to emerge is a professor of medical microbiology in Germany. His open letter to Merkel slams the shutdown kneejerk response. Text and video:

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    Dr. Bhakdi appears to have seen enough data to convince him that this is being dangerously overblown. He doesn’t rant, though just poses questions. Along the way, he cites a French study just published that shows, using the latest data, that there is no evidence the “novel coronavirus” is more dangerous than any of the other coronaviruses long in regular circulation.

    I previously also recommended people look to the work of Dr. Wodarg, who is on an anti-CoronaPanic crusade (see also youtube video, English subtitled).

    One hopes that data does eventually win over hysteria; if not, are we moving towards a media-administered quasi-theocracy of some kind? (I mean, more than we already were; this is madman-level stuff now; willingness to ruin lives for years to come for nothing.)

    But that Lee article (published in the Spectator US edition (see also rehosted version); expanded from a Spectator UK article some days earlier: It is a good summary of the current situation with a now fairly complete data picture emerging. Among Lee’s good insights is that “total corona deaths” is increasingly going to be a really bogus:

    Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had COVID-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to COVID-19, the COVID trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by COVID-19 — would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.

    Meanwhile, a new Italian study says that, as suspected, 88% of those dying “with coronavirus” died of something else and the virus was simply detected in their systems (as many other viruses might be, at any given time, if testing is demanded for by a panic-pushing, bloodthirsty media); 12% of the dead died are being deemed “died of the coronavirus,” and those are the same age- and condition-profile normal for susceptibility to being lost to a bad case of flu in any winter.

    I fear the pro-CoronaPanic majority may be emotionally committed by now, and it is not easy to admit they were wrong on this, but it’s something we have to do, the sooner the better. I worry about an instinct to double down, triple down on the initial kneejerk reaction (as they have), which delays the return to sanity more and more, hurting us all more and more, causing many needless deaths and disrupted lives.

    • Thanks: The Wild Geese Howard
    • Replies: @Lot
    @Hail

    I think you’re understating how bad Covid19 is.

    Nonetheless, the burden is on the Shutdowners who want to induce another Great Depression to show their tactics will actually have a large benefit.

    Using your analogy, I think we’ve got a foot infection that’s going to require some toe amputations. There’s no way around that, and life will never be quite as good again. Doesn’t mean a leg amputation is required.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Hail

    Sucharit Bhakti = Hi, Kraut! Bid cash?

    , @keypusher
    @Hail

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    What's happening is that unprecedented number of people are coming into ICUs. Quoting Philip Lemoine, who analzyed French data over the past decade, he's citing to a chart showing ICU admissions for flu over the past decade:

    "As you can see, it varies a lot, but even during the worst season, the total number of admissions to ICU for the flu never exceeded 3,000 in that period."

    "By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years. If you include the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in hospitals so far, namely 4,032, as well the people who have left ICU because they had gotten better, we must already be approaching and almost certainly even exceeding 10,000 admissions to ICU in less than 3 weeks."

    It's not a hoax, it's not a myth, it's not a plot, it's not innumerate Chicken Littles running around. It's sick people going to the hospital.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Eustace, @Hail, @res

    , @Eustace
    @Hail


    If you don’t want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a “notably high flu season” death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.
     

    I completely agree that the current estimates of deaths rates from COVID-19 suffer from inaccuracy both in the numerator and the denominator (which compound badly). Some of the more reliable data coming from countries where there has been diligent testing and essentially no overload of Intensive Care Units, like Germany and South Korea, point to numbers in the 0.6% range. This would be a good guess at present.

    Now 0.6% is more like the 1957 and 1968 flus than the usual seasonal flu. But my point is that, even at such levels, it was not deemed socially optimal to shut down the economy of the first-world countries in 1957 and 1968, and I have yet to see an argument why the decision-makers of 1957 and 1968 were wrong. The decision-makers of those times certainly have enjoyed a good run of 50 years without having been criticized for their actions, even in hindsight.

    , @HA
    @Hail

    "You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum."


    Say what you will about people like Cochran and Unz. They're neither "non-math" nor "anti-math". No, it's the people who couldn't deal with a logarithm if their lives depended on it who are at the forefront of the coronahoax crowd. You think Bolsonaro or Lukashenko are math-oriented? You think the people seething about their hatred of "boomers" on this site or simply letting us know that this all a "nothingburger" are offering any math to support their claims? You think the idiots who want us to compare infectious diseases to car-wrecks understand exponential growth? No, they're blabbering about nefarious plots against Trump, and the second amendment and state control and whatever. They're certainly not bothering with math. To the extent they do, they seem to be doing a really good job of shooting themselves in the feet.

    Replies: @HA

  140. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @AnotherDad

    'the ones behind this “you don’t need a mask” ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.'

    Boomer sez everyone else 'ought to' permanently rearrange their lives cuz boomer is scared. Solopsists.

    Boomers ought to be arrested and quarantined until you stop tantruming in public.

    Replies: @Ragno, @Anon, @AnotherDad

    What is your problem, you weenie-ass snowflake? Daddy issues? Some 50,000 of my “boomer” cohort died a violent death in Vietnam. But you guys? Boo effing hoo, we couldn’t go to our sex-and-drugs orgy at the beach because of you old farts.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Anon


    Daddy issues?
     
    There is something Œdipal about these guys.

    Some 50,000 of my “boomer” cohort died a violent death in Vietnam.
     
    Couldn't find US Vietnam War casualties by year of birth, but plenty of other stats are available here:


    http://thewall-usa.com/names.asp
    https://www.militaryfactory.com/vietnam/casualties.asp

    The most affected states were West Virginia and Oklahoma; the worst-hit town (proportionately) was in Ohio, and the high school with the most dead in Philadelphia.

    Replies: @Hail

  141. @Lot
    Depression Panic!

    Industry Revenue Declines:

    Movie Theaters: -100%

    Airlines: TSA passenger traffic -94%

    Hotels: Revenue -70% as of week ending 3/21

    Fine Dining: Open Table reports reservations down 100% since 3/21, 90% decline level hit 3/18.

    Overall Restaurant: 48% revenue decline between 3/1 and 3/21, 30,000 locations permanently closed, 110,000 further locations on likely permanent closure list

    Pizza: Dominoes closes 1400 locations worldwide

    GDP: 1st year of the Great Depression GDP declined 8.5%. Worst year, 1932, declined 12.9%. Goldman and Morgan Stanley’s Q2 2020 GDP projections are -30% and -34%.

    1982 and 2009 saw GDP declines of 1.8% and 2.5%.

    Electricity Use in Tokyo: down 60% from Feb to March.

    Replies: @Polynikes

    I’m not sure what people expected. -5% gdp on the year is a good back of the napkin estimate for one month’s closure. The question is, can we restart it and at least get back to “normal?”

    Anecdotally , in my city I know of a few restaurants and gyms who I would’ve thought were in good shape and they tell me they’re almost done and will be dead if we go 30 days. On top of that, these crazy unemployment terms from the bailout will probably make it hard to get workers back to work initially.

    This may be worse than I expected, and I was definitely one of the ones on here not wanting to shut every thing down without some plan for the economic fallout. I hope I’m wrong on this.

  142. @IHTG
    "Idaho becomes first U.S. state to ban trans athletes": https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-lgbt-lawmaking/idaho-becomes-first-us-state-to-ban-trans-athletes-idUSL8N2BO44U

    Replies: @Jack Armstrong

    OFF TOPIC:

    DEAD! Adam Schlesinger, a singer-songwriter for the bands Fountains of Wayne and Ivy, has died aged 52.

    He was also an award-winning writer of songs for film, theatre and television.

    His lawyer, Josh Grier, said that Adam passed away on Wednesday from complications brought on by coronavirus.

    Adam’s critically acclaimed band Fountains of Wayne, in which he played bass while Chris Collingwood played guitar and sang vocals, rose to fame with 2003 hit, Stacy’s Mom.

    The track about a teenage boy who was infatuated with his friend’s mum, reached number 21 on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart and featured supermodel Rachel Hunter in the video.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Jack Armstrong

    He was the main songwriter for the very entertaining recent musical comedy TV show "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend."

  143. Lot says:
    @Hail
    @Eustace


    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.
     
    You are asking the right questions.

    Those of us interested in data over panic have been asking the same. And it turns out, all those who investigate this end up finding that at worst it looks rather like the 1968 flu, which was so minor as to merit people who lived through it not remembering it at all (but assuredly, many especially elderly and sick people did die of it).

    There are an increasing number of specialists and experts sounding the alarm and pointing to this being a fiasco based largely on flat-out bad data/statistics.

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    ________________

    Dr. John Lee (writing March 29), a top expert on the matter in the UK, is now openly challenging the media-mandated Panic Consensus. He makes very good points:

    https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/


    How to understand — and report — figures for ‘COVID deaths’

    Nuance is crucial — not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on health services in coming days.
     

    If you don't want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a "notably high flu season" death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.

    ____________________

    Experts, especially in Europe, and for some reason particularly Germany, are now openly opposing the shutdowns and challenging whether this CoronaPanic ever had any basis at all to have gotten anything like this far (given no worldwide media-driven panic of a few of the bad winter flu seasons in the 2010s). The latest top figure to emerge is a professor of medical microbiology in Germany. His open letter to Merkel slams the shutdown kneejerk response. Text and video:

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsExPrHCHbw

    Dr. Bhakdi appears to have seen enough data to convince him that this is being dangerously overblown. He doesn't rant, though just poses questions. Along the way, he cites a French study just published that shows, using the latest data, that there is no evidence the "novel coronavirus" is more dangerous than any of the other coronaviruses long in regular circulation.

    I previously also recommended people look to the work of Dr. Wodarg, who is on an anti-CoronaPanic crusade (see also youtube video, English subtitled).

    One hopes that data does eventually win over hysteria; if not, are we moving towards a media-administered quasi-theocracy of some kind? (I mean, more than we already were; this is madman-level stuff now; willingness to ruin lives for years to come for nothing.)

    But that Lee article (published in the Spectator US edition (see also rehosted version); expanded from a Spectator UK article some days earlier: It is a good summary of the current situation with a now fairly complete data picture emerging. Among Lee's good insights is that "total corona deaths" is increasingly going to be a really bogus:


    Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had COVID-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to COVID-19, the COVID trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by COVID-19 — would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.
     
    Meanwhile, a new Italian study says that, as suspected, 88% of those dying "with coronavirus" died of something else and the virus was simply detected in their systems (as many other viruses might be, at any given time, if testing is demanded for by a panic-pushing, bloodthirsty media); 12% of the dead died are being deemed "died of the coronavirus," and those are the same age- and condition-profile normal for susceptibility to being lost to a bad case of flu in any winter.

    I fear the pro-CoronaPanic majority may be emotionally committed by now, and it is not easy to admit they were wrong on this, but it's something we have to do, the sooner the better. I worry about an instinct to double down, triple down on the initial kneejerk reaction (as they have), which delays the return to sanity more and more, hurting us all more and more, causing many needless deaths and disrupted lives.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar, @keypusher, @Eustace, @HA

    I think you’re understating how bad Covid19 is.

    Nonetheless, the burden is on the Shutdowners who want to induce another Great Depression to show their tactics will actually have a large benefit.

    Using your analogy, I think we’ve got a foot infection that’s going to require some toe amputations. There’s no way around that, and life will never be quite as good again. Doesn’t mean a leg amputation is required.

  144. @anon
    It’s amazing how Trump turns them all into petulant defiant teenagers.

    Libtards have always been that way. Especially Boomers. It just wasn't as obvious Before Trump (BT).

    Srsly, libtardism is one long "F-U, DAD". Not just the 60's, read Truman Capote - "In Cold Blood" is still required in a lotta high schools even in Current Year - that mincing faggot's problems are so obvious. Margaret Atwood? Phil Roth? The list goes on, and it's all about some fragile libtard having issues with Daddy. Same for their playwrights, like Eugene O'Neil.

    Spoiled brat insecure teens who want the "cool kidz" to like them, who pretend to BE the "kool kidz". Sunstein is a fine example, but he's hardly the only one. Overage adolescents, that's all libtards are.

    Especially the ones who "f'ing luv science".

    Replies: @Jack D, @Charon, @AnotherDad

    Truman Capote – “In Cold Blood” is still required in a lotta high schools even in Current Year

    Well that’s certainly crying out for a cite.

    • Replies: @keypusher
    @Charon

    I doubt it's required in many places, but I think it's offered as an option to write a paper on quite a bit. My daughter wrote one a couple years ago. If you google "In Cold Blood schools" you get a couple of articles from the last decade or so about controversies in this district or that about it, plus some off-the-shelf essays for students to plagiarize. So it's still around. Which I'm fine with; it's a terrific book.

    , @anon
    @Charon

    Well that’s certainly crying out for a cite.

    All I gots is some aged out required reading lists. What you got?

    Look, anyone going to college needs to take AP classes in high school, and even better take the AP tests. There's lots of reading lists to prep for the AP tests. High school curriculum is up to the school or the district or the state, so there's always some English teacher who's got her little list, or his little list. It's not so bad in the 19th century but in the 20th it gets ugly.

    Has every high school student had Twuman crammed down his or her throat? I dunno, but plenty have. Ditto Margaret Atwood. Ditto Ralph Ellis. There are some really crappy books that got good reviews in New York publications and English professors love 'em, so better read them for that AP test, not to mention to get a good reference from the Jr. and Sr. Lit teachers.

    Ya got me, I can't say that everyone has to read the same crappy modern lit, for the most part. Except...probably everyone has to suffer through Truman Capote Harper Lee's Mockingbird. No way anyone can be allowed to go to college without that bit of indoctrination. Gotta learn to respect the Numinous Negro, or else.

  145. @Hail
    @moshe


    why we didn’t just all go about our daily lives except for old and sick people
     
    People of the future will ask this, whenever occasion comes to discuss this shabby-looking affair.

    All the data is against the Doomers, and has been for weeks. The data keeps getting stronger and more robust. All the data says the shutdowns were wrong, like blowing off a leg with a shotgun in response to unspecific and unserious foot pain. After becoming aware of the unspecific foot pain, in comes a quack doctor who says, "Oh that's a NEW kind of foot pain! From China! Trust me on this, it will kill you like Ebola. Let me get my hazmat suit..." Then he begins shouting at nurses to evacuate, you might contaminate them...

    Alas, the CoronaPanic-pushers control the media and can easily induce of auxiliaries (of various stripes and motivations) in social media and elsewhere to ramp-up the CoronaDoom hysteria, louder and louder, keep shoving Big Scary Numbers at people to keep them scared and in line.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @moshe, @Charon

    All the data is against the Doomers, and has been for weeks. The data keeps getting stronger and more robust. All the data says the shutdowns were wrong

    EUROPE
    Italy’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported

    Italy is undercounting thousands of deaths caused by the virus in the areas worst hit by the pandemic, a WSJ analysis shows, indicating the human toll may end up being much greater than official data indicate.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

    • Replies: @Hail
    @Charon

    Italy also recently conceded that 88% of its NovelCoronavirus-positive deaths were terminal patients whose deaths were not caused by the virus ("deaths with the virus"), with 11%+ as advanced-age persons with serious medical conditions who were not terminal ("deaths from the virus," though even there, affecting persons already weakened).

    Italy has been subject to criticism for the almost criminally unethical way they've been reporting death (and it is the Italian situation that fanned the flames of CoronaPanic in the West more thananything): All deaths in Italy are tested; all that are positive for the new corona virus are tallied up into The Big Scary Number column and tossed out to the bloodthirtsy media, which eats them up happily and growls for more.

    It looks like what this WSJ writer is doing is arguing that there are far more corona-positive people than is known (which we all knew already and is obvious to anyone who does even the slightest amount of critical analysis), and ergo there must be more corona-positive deaths ("deaths with the virus"). This is true but not a novel insight, and publishing it the way they have is also reckless.

    It presents the problem of a healthy 30-year-old Italian speeding down the road getting in a car crash, dying, testing positive at autopsy, and getting tallied into Total Corona Deaths, which is what the Italian counting system has been doing for weeks, and others have began copying.

    The comments at that Wall Street Journal article make a lot more sense than the article itself (often the case).

    Replies: @keypusher

  146. @Jack Armstrong
    @IHTG

    OFF TOPIC:

    DEAD! Adam Schlesinger, a singer-songwriter for the bands Fountains of Wayne and Ivy, has died aged 52.

    He was also an award-winning writer of songs for film, theatre and television.

    His lawyer, Josh Grier, said that Adam passed away on Wednesday from complications brought on by coronavirus.

    Adam's critically acclaimed band Fountains of Wayne, in which he played bass while Chris Collingwood played guitar and sang vocals, rose to fame with 2003 hit, Stacy's Mom.

    The track about a teenage boy who was infatuated with his friend's mum, reached number 21 on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart and featured supermodel Rachel Hunter in the video.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    He was the main songwriter for the very entertaining recent musical comedy TV show “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend.”

  147. A lot of high achievers, such as Philip Roth, Tom Wolfe and John Updike, grew up in highly supportive families.

    Losing a parent young correlates with success. It helps when the surviving parent is supportive, e.g., Paul McCartney.

    Frans Johansson wrote about this in one of his books, The Click Moment, I believe. Not to recommend it, though– he told Chick Fil-A’s Leadercast how much both his parents helped him succeed.

    Speaker Q&A: FRANS JOHANSSON

    Unlike with Liz Warren, this Swede got actual Cherokee genes from one of them.

  148. News Flash! According to the NYT, the “Pro-Trump Media” are using coronavirus as a way to drive divisions among the otherwise unified American public. And wouldn’t you know it, that’s exactly Trump’s favorite m.o.

    POLITICS AND MEDIA
    How the Pro-Trump Media Made Coronavirus a Battle of Us vs. Them

    Right-wing commentators turned a pandemic into the kind of clash President Trump has waged for much of his life.

  149. @Hail
    @Eustace


    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.
     
    You are asking the right questions.

    Those of us interested in data over panic have been asking the same. And it turns out, all those who investigate this end up finding that at worst it looks rather like the 1968 flu, which was so minor as to merit people who lived through it not remembering it at all (but assuredly, many especially elderly and sick people did die of it).

    There are an increasing number of specialists and experts sounding the alarm and pointing to this being a fiasco based largely on flat-out bad data/statistics.

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    ________________

    Dr. John Lee (writing March 29), a top expert on the matter in the UK, is now openly challenging the media-mandated Panic Consensus. He makes very good points:

    https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/


    How to understand — and report — figures for ‘COVID deaths’

    Nuance is crucial — not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on health services in coming days.
     

    If you don't want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a "notably high flu season" death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.

    ____________________

    Experts, especially in Europe, and for some reason particularly Germany, are now openly opposing the shutdowns and challenging whether this CoronaPanic ever had any basis at all to have gotten anything like this far (given no worldwide media-driven panic of a few of the bad winter flu seasons in the 2010s). The latest top figure to emerge is a professor of medical microbiology in Germany. His open letter to Merkel slams the shutdown kneejerk response. Text and video:

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsExPrHCHbw

    Dr. Bhakdi appears to have seen enough data to convince him that this is being dangerously overblown. He doesn't rant, though just poses questions. Along the way, he cites a French study just published that shows, using the latest data, that there is no evidence the "novel coronavirus" is more dangerous than any of the other coronaviruses long in regular circulation.

    I previously also recommended people look to the work of Dr. Wodarg, who is on an anti-CoronaPanic crusade (see also youtube video, English subtitled).

    One hopes that data does eventually win over hysteria; if not, are we moving towards a media-administered quasi-theocracy of some kind? (I mean, more than we already were; this is madman-level stuff now; willingness to ruin lives for years to come for nothing.)

    But that Lee article (published in the Spectator US edition (see also rehosted version); expanded from a Spectator UK article some days earlier: It is a good summary of the current situation with a now fairly complete data picture emerging. Among Lee's good insights is that "total corona deaths" is increasingly going to be a really bogus:


    Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had COVID-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to COVID-19, the COVID trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by COVID-19 — would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.
     
    Meanwhile, a new Italian study says that, as suspected, 88% of those dying "with coronavirus" died of something else and the virus was simply detected in their systems (as many other viruses might be, at any given time, if testing is demanded for by a panic-pushing, bloodthirsty media); 12% of the dead died are being deemed "died of the coronavirus," and those are the same age- and condition-profile normal for susceptibility to being lost to a bad case of flu in any winter.

    I fear the pro-CoronaPanic majority may be emotionally committed by now, and it is not easy to admit they were wrong on this, but it's something we have to do, the sooner the better. I worry about an instinct to double down, triple down on the initial kneejerk reaction (as they have), which delays the return to sanity more and more, hurting us all more and more, causing many needless deaths and disrupted lives.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar, @keypusher, @Eustace, @HA

    Sucharit Bhakti = Hi, Kraut! Bid cash?

  150. @Joe Stalin
    @unit472


    The good news is, your windshield blocks virtually all damaging UV radiation.

    "Your windshield is normally quite different from the rest of your glass, in that it's two pieces of glass laminated with a layer of plastic – vinyl – in between," says Vandal. "So that triple-layer system by its nature – because plastics don't like UV – contains UV inhibitors that protect the plastic and as a result also protect any transmission of UV through it. So a windshield, laminated glass, blocks 98 to 99 per cent of all UV – A, B or C."

    Due to safety regulations, all windshields in North America are made of laminated glass. The side and back windows, however, are typically a single layer of thicker, tempered glass.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/commuting/does-my-windshield-protect-me-from-the-sun/article12495123/
     

    Replies: @Anon

    A hot car in the sunlight can get up to 130 degrees. If a fever can kill a virus, so can a hot car.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @Anon

    "A hot car in the sunlight can get up to 130 degrees. If a fever can kill a virus, so can a hot car.

    Sure.


    Heat at 56°C kills the SARS coronavirus at around 10000 units per 15 min (quick reduction).

    https://www.who.int/csr/sars/survival_2003_05_04/en/
     
    How long is your car in direct sunlight to raise the interior temperature to 56°C?

    Find out with this online calculator.

    https://goodcalculators.com/inside-car-temperature-calculator/

     

    So does this mean cars parked in the shade or used continually aren't functioning as sterilizers?
  151. @Charles Erwin Wilson
    @Jonathan Mason


    How much do you trust him?
     
    More than I trust you.

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    More than I trust you.

    So do you believe that a Russian-Saudi accord on oil quotas is expected within a few days? And what percentage of your net worth would you bet on it?

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Jonathan Mason

    On this video of today's press conference, the discussion about Trump's calls to Putin and the Crown Prince is at approx -48. He goes on to say that he will be having extensive meetings with oil majors on Friday and with independent producers on Saturday, and possibly Sunday and that if the situation is not resolved quickly he has a solution of his own that he does not wish to reveal at this time that he is pretty confident will work if the free market cannot work out its own solution.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNtgyv3ACpw&feature=emb_logo

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

  152. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @AnotherDad

    'the ones behind this “you don’t need a mask” ought to be arrested, distributed to every town in the US and strung up in the town square.'

    Boomer sez everyone else 'ought to' permanently rearrange their lives cuz boomer is scared. Solopsists.

    Boomers ought to be arrested and quarantined until you stop tantruming in public.

    Replies: @Ragno, @Anon, @AnotherDad

    Boomer sez everyone else ‘ought to’ permanently rearrange their lives cuz boomer is scared. Solopsists.

    Boomers ought to be arrested and quarantined until you stop tantruming in public.

    JSOM–

    I’ve explained repeatedly in my comments, this boomer is not particularly scared precisely because this thing is not very lethal to young healthy people like my kids. It ain’t 1918.

    I do however expect “public health” authorities–living comfortably with cushy bennies and lush pensions courtesy of our tax dollars–to … do the effing jobs! And certainly not outright lie to people about effective public health measures.

    ~

    But more on point–you should dial in political reality.

    It’s a more feminized, risk averse nation, with more continuous information flow to jack up anxiety. Politicians can’t handle the “tens of thousands dead” even though 2.7 million Americans die every year, so that’s 8000 a day dying from something. That’s just the reality.

    So if you’re missing your chance to pickup drunk chicks in the club … sorry, but that’s off the table until this is reined in.

    But if you simply think the lockdown is over the top and want it lifted ASAP, then instead of tantrums on cringing boomers think it through. How can that end?

    It can end when it can be lifted and this epidemic still controlled with other less invasive public health measures. Oh, like what i’m suggesting–bitching about–wearing masks. If we have public mask wearing during epidemics like this–with respiratory spread a vector–then we can dial back the more obnoxious stuff.

    If you’re just too darn cool to wear a mask–fine. But then expect this tedious police statey stuff to linger on and on and on.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @AnotherDad

    "If you’re just too darn cool to wear a mask–fine. But then expect this tedious police statey stuff to linger on and on and on."

    The only way to stop a malicious police state is to submit to the police state.

    The only reason this rape is taking so long and requiring so much violence is that you resist my need to penetrate you and ejaculate.

    Boomerd logic at its finest.

  153. @Muggles
    @Jack D

    >>Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out,<<

    Not to be a broken record here, but why is "news" about the wonderful success the Communist Chinese have achieved being repeated and trumpeted as fact? I hope it is true. But what other news do iSteve readers eagerly swallow that is "apparently" true from only one unverified government source?

    Readers here are notoriously skeptical and cynical (beyond belief) about anything the US government says about anything. Or the CDC or any federally funded source. Zero acceptance of what is said, absent outside verification. Yet in China there is zero independent verification or non governmental reporting about the pandemic or anything else. ZERO! No non Chinese are permitted to access basic facts or even interview doctors/scientists or average citizens.

    This is a clearly irrational methodology. The US govt for all of its many flaws doesn't employ, like CCCP controlled China, literally hundreds of thousands of Internet censors or print/TV/radio censors. Do folks here not know that? Why believe them at face value? You get arrested there for violating the Party Line. Or disappeared.

    Does anyone with any sense invest in Chinese businesses absent listings on Western stock exchanges which mandate First World accounting and auditing procedures?

    There is an odd bias, which I see even on libertarian and conservative blogs, which faithfully repeats Chinese "news" while sneering at anything the FDA/CDC says. This appears to be an historical artifact of getting objective criticism of US govt policies from foreign news sources. Even Communist ones, which don't lie about US problems. But that policy doesn't extend to Chinese or Russian analysis of their own government's actions. Consistency of skepticism is required!

    Replies: @Peterike, @SOL

    “The US govt for all of its many flaws doesn’t employ, like CCCP controlled China, literally hundreds of thousands of Internet censors or print/TV/radio censors.”

    Well no, because our private companies do all that quite willingly, along with an army of unpaid activist fanatics on social media.

    The difference between America and China is basically the American ruling class is more subtle. And we have Trump working against them.

  154. The last month has been surrealistic enough that it has crossed my mind that I may have ingested a bit of ergot tainted rye bread, but, no, today the insanity increases exponentially; in the Port of Los Angeles some loon attempted to ram USNS Mercy with a locomotive, so I must conclude that I have instead been dosed with Owsley grade pharmaceuticals.

  155. HA says:
    @Charles Erwin Wilson's phone
    @Jonathan Mason

    Fox is moving left, and has been for some time now. They just fired Trish Regan for being pro-Trump. Murdoch boys want in with the kool kids

    Replies: @HA

    “They just fired Trish Regan for being pro-Trump.”

    For being pro-Trump? Sadly, abrupt about-face shifts are rarely graceful, and Fox has done a lot of scrambling and retconning. Being pro-Trump has little to do with any of that. What, you’re going to claim that Tucker Carlson is now anti-Trump?

    The Fox Network’s pathetically clumsy about-face on China flu:

    While a change of tone has finally come from many voices on Fox News, Tucker Carlson was ahead of the curve.

    As early as January 28, Carlson was warning viewers of the coronavirus on his show — calling it “bizarre” that immigration between the United States and China, the origin of the virus, was running freely…On March 6, Carlson warned viewers of the potential economic and social ramifications which could be felt by the coronavirus outbreak, which the host predicted would become more widespread.

  156. @Hail
    @Eustace


    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.
     
    You are asking the right questions.

    Those of us interested in data over panic have been asking the same. And it turns out, all those who investigate this end up finding that at worst it looks rather like the 1968 flu, which was so minor as to merit people who lived through it not remembering it at all (but assuredly, many especially elderly and sick people did die of it).

    There are an increasing number of specialists and experts sounding the alarm and pointing to this being a fiasco based largely on flat-out bad data/statistics.

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    ________________

    Dr. John Lee (writing March 29), a top expert on the matter in the UK, is now openly challenging the media-mandated Panic Consensus. He makes very good points:

    https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/


    How to understand — and report — figures for ‘COVID deaths’

    Nuance is crucial — not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on health services in coming days.
     

    If you don't want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a "notably high flu season" death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.

    ____________________

    Experts, especially in Europe, and for some reason particularly Germany, are now openly opposing the shutdowns and challenging whether this CoronaPanic ever had any basis at all to have gotten anything like this far (given no worldwide media-driven panic of a few of the bad winter flu seasons in the 2010s). The latest top figure to emerge is a professor of medical microbiology in Germany. His open letter to Merkel slams the shutdown kneejerk response. Text and video:

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsExPrHCHbw

    Dr. Bhakdi appears to have seen enough data to convince him that this is being dangerously overblown. He doesn't rant, though just poses questions. Along the way, he cites a French study just published that shows, using the latest data, that there is no evidence the "novel coronavirus" is more dangerous than any of the other coronaviruses long in regular circulation.

    I previously also recommended people look to the work of Dr. Wodarg, who is on an anti-CoronaPanic crusade (see also youtube video, English subtitled).

    One hopes that data does eventually win over hysteria; if not, are we moving towards a media-administered quasi-theocracy of some kind? (I mean, more than we already were; this is madman-level stuff now; willingness to ruin lives for years to come for nothing.)

    But that Lee article (published in the Spectator US edition (see also rehosted version); expanded from a Spectator UK article some days earlier: It is a good summary of the current situation with a now fairly complete data picture emerging. Among Lee's good insights is that "total corona deaths" is increasingly going to be a really bogus:


    Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had COVID-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to COVID-19, the COVID trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by COVID-19 — would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.
     
    Meanwhile, a new Italian study says that, as suspected, 88% of those dying "with coronavirus" died of something else and the virus was simply detected in their systems (as many other viruses might be, at any given time, if testing is demanded for by a panic-pushing, bloodthirsty media); 12% of the dead died are being deemed "died of the coronavirus," and those are the same age- and condition-profile normal for susceptibility to being lost to a bad case of flu in any winter.

    I fear the pro-CoronaPanic majority may be emotionally committed by now, and it is not easy to admit they were wrong on this, but it's something we have to do, the sooner the better. I worry about an instinct to double down, triple down on the initial kneejerk reaction (as they have), which delays the return to sanity more and more, hurting us all more and more, causing many needless deaths and disrupted lives.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar, @keypusher, @Eustace, @HA

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    What’s happening is that unprecedented number of people are coming into ICUs. Quoting Philip Lemoine, who analzyed French data over the past decade, he’s citing to a chart showing ICU admissions for flu over the past decade:

    “As you can see, it varies a lot, but even during the worst season, the total number of admissions to ICU for the flu never exceeded 3,000 in that period.”

    “By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years. If you include the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in hospitals so far, namely 4,032, as well the people who have left ICU because they had gotten better, we must already be approaching and almost certainly even exceeding 10,000 admissions to ICU in less than 3 weeks.”

    It’s not a hoax, it’s not a myth, it’s not a plot, it’s not innumerate Chicken Littles running around. It’s sick people going to the hospital.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    • Agree: Jack D
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @keypusher

    That's deceptive though because not all ICU admissions are alike. When I worked in an ICU on the night shift we had a hospitalist that transferred every shortness of breath case from other floors down to us. Many times, they got transferred back upstairs come the day shift. Doctors are different. Some are more or less cautious, and as people they are prone to hysteria like everyone else. My guess is that admissions are up but maybe not all actually required ICU. What percentage? I don't know.

    But why isn't Japan with its lack of shelter at home orders and lack of testing experiencing overwhelmed ICU admissions?

    In Japan, doctors are responsible for managing the financial aspect of the health systen as well as patient health. So, for examp!e, I went once with RUQ pain and based ob my history the doctor thought maybe pancreatitis but he didn't order lipase and amylase because, he said, they can generate false negatives and will cost the system money--better to wait and see than spend money on a test.

    So I wouldn't be surprised if there are doctors letting older people pass away in nursing homes or at home rather than admit to the hospital.

    Replies: @Jack D, @keypusher

    , @Eustace
    @keypusher


    By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years.
     
    Philippe Lemoine's past 10 years is a laughably short time frame for thinking about epidemiology. The canard that bad flus recur every 10-11 years has long been debunked. They are extremely erratic. The worst flu of the past 100 years killed 30000 people in France. Nobody bat an eyelid, let alone shut down the whole economy. (It hit in December 1969, if anyone cares about such details). A few schools in the South West closed because the teachers were sick, and some trains got cancelled. That was that.

    So, to quote @Lot:


    the burden is on the Shutdowners who want to induce another Great Depression to show their tactics will actually have a large benefit.
     
    , @Hail
    @keypusher

    CoronaPanic is defined by circular arguments and self-fulfilling prophecies.

    My immediate reaction to the numbers you cite is that considering France caved in to CoronaPanic, their society is shut down, a mass panic has been incited, and doctors and flu patients and the families of flu patients are all being told they are frontline soldiers in World War III and are all heroes, the idea that in this peak-flu period ICU admissions would be higher than normal for a peak-flu season is not the shock of the century.

    Chrisnonymous said the same:


    Doctors ... Some are more or less cautious, and as people they are prone to hysteria like everyone else. My guess is that admissions are up but maybe not all actually required ICU.
     
    , @res
    @keypusher

    I like Hail's approach of using the 1968 flu as an analogy (which you chose to ignore, in favor of just looking at the previous decade). This 2007 paper compares hypothetical cases to the 1918 and 1968 flus.
    Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17521095

    Abstract:


    William Beaumont Army Medical Center conducted quantitative modeling with FluSurge 2.0 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to determine hospital capabilities in responding to patient arrival surges of the Fort Bliss population in mild 1968-type and severe 1918-type influenza pandemics. Model predictions showed that William Beaumont Army Medical Center could adequately care for all intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients during a mild pandemic, particularly if hospital capacity was expanded using the emergency management plan, excess surge plan, or activation of a contagious disease outbreak facility. For a severe influenza pandemic, model predictions showed that hospital beds, ventilators, and other resources would be exceeded within 2 or 3 weeks. Even at maximal hospital expansion, for a 12-week severe pandemic with a 35% attack rate there would be peak demand for 214% of available non-ICU beds, 785% of ICU beds, and 392% of ventilators. Health care planners and decision-makers should prepare for resource challenges when developing plans for the next influenza pandemic.
     
    Sample excerpts:

    Using the model parameters within FluSurge for both mild and severe pandemics, metropolitan Atlanta hospitals were predicted to have the capacity to sustain a 1968-type outbreak but would be overwhelmed in a 1918-type outbreak.
     
    Here is an analysis in that vein. But first, the CDC FluSurge web page (notice that they use the 1968 flu as the default analysis):
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/tools/flusurge.htm

    This page was created March 13th, but I can't figure out if it has been updated over time.
    https://qventus.com/blog/predicting-the-effects-of-the-covid-pandemic-on-us-health-system-capacity/

    It gives a detailed analysis of hospital capacity over the level of surge they expected (they estimate week 1 of their plots as mid-April with weeks 4-6 being the peak. In addition to the state level analysis, they also look at CBSAs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core-based_statistical_area

    The moderate (1968) scenario mostly peaks at 100-150% of capacity. Here is their national summary.

    Impact at a National Level:

    Using the “moderate” assumptions (1958/1968-like), if the pandemic occurs nationwide the model projects that:

    - Approximately 6.1 million people will be infected (1.86% of the population), and 1.17 million people will be hospitalized (0.35% of the population)
    - 326,000 Med-Surg beds and 24,500 ICU beds will be needed just to care for COVID-19 patients during peak load times (above typical patient needs)
    - At peak, there will be a shortage of 9,100 ICU beds and 115,000 Med-Surg beds nationwide. At typical staffing ratios this would require 325,000 additional staff, which would be a key constraint in a situation where childcare, infection concerns and quarantine will already place a strain on existing staff availability.
    - There could be roughly 200,000 deaths caused by COVID-19
     
    Note that the 1968 flu itself had an estimated 100,000 deaths (I see other estimates around 34k?) and 0.5% CFR. One bit of trivia about the 1968 H3N2 virus:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291411/

    Thirty-seven years later, the H3N2 subtype still reigns as the major and most troublesome influenza A virus in humans.
     
    Now, of course, comes the most important question. How accurate is that FluSurge model for our current situation? I am not encouraged by the lack of updating given it is almost 3 weeks old. Does anyone know of a more recent version? Or of efforts to track the projections against reality?

    Replies: @keypusher

  157. Anon[249] • Disclaimer says:
    @Charon
    @Jack D

    Yes it's Trump being Trump but if he had half a brain he'd stop feeding caviar to his enemies in the media and he'd stop being a New York real estate developer for just a little while and act like a serious leader.

    Perverse as it may seem, this nightmare is a golden opportunity for him to step up and achieve greatness. But he's famous for never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

    Would the MSM even give him a chance? Probably not, but if we leave everything up to them we are well and truly sunk.

    Replies: @Anon

    How do you step up and achieve greatness during a pandemic? There is no magic wand Trump can wave to solve the problem. More rhetoric doesn’t make a disease go away. The only thing any of us can do with Covid-19 is cope with it. Trump is coping with the situation, and so are our doctors and nurses.

  158. @donut
    @Buzz Mohawk

    You shouldn't make a joke about those Hungarian Patriots that sacrificed so much for their country . Having promised them our support we shamefully betrayed them in keeping with our English heritage .

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    Understood. I know about the 1956 Uprising and did not mean to make light of it. It is a tragedy that help never came.

  159. @anon
    It’s amazing how Trump turns them all into petulant defiant teenagers.

    Libtards have always been that way. Especially Boomers. It just wasn't as obvious Before Trump (BT).

    Srsly, libtardism is one long "F-U, DAD". Not just the 60's, read Truman Capote - "In Cold Blood" is still required in a lotta high schools even in Current Year - that mincing faggot's problems are so obvious. Margaret Atwood? Phil Roth? The list goes on, and it's all about some fragile libtard having issues with Daddy. Same for their playwrights, like Eugene O'Neil.

    Spoiled brat insecure teens who want the "cool kidz" to like them, who pretend to BE the "kool kidz". Sunstein is a fine example, but he's hardly the only one. Overage adolescents, that's all libtards are.

    Especially the ones who "f'ing luv science".

    Replies: @Jack D, @Charon, @AnotherDad

    Outing another–i’ll just say it–“moron” who doesn’t know what a “boomer” is. Yep, we passed the Civil Rights Act, reopened immigration in 65, demanded mandatory busing, amnestied the illegals in ’86 (that damn boomer Reagan!).

    That mincing faggot Capote was even born a bit before my dad. Margaret Atwood isn’t a boomer either. Nor is Philip Roth. You’re 0-3. Sounds like your issue is with Silent generation types.

    If you just mean “everyone older than me sucks!” … just say it.

    But then, if you want to find someone with daddy issues … look in the mirror.

    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
    @AnotherDad


    If you just mean “everyone older than me sucks!” … just say it.
     
    LOL. Yes, this is exactly what it sounds like when people of newer generations parrot the currently popular insults against boomers. What they don't realize is, this is exactly how boomers sounded when they blamed everything on older generations.

    Probably every generation does this, at least some members do. There is nothing new under the sun, especially the sons!
    , @anon
    @AnotherDad

    If you just mean “everyone older than me sucks!” … just say it.

    OK Boomer! How about this slogan?


    Don't trust anyone over 30
     
    lol.
  160. @TomSchmidt
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Wouldn't you prefer the girl in the beret as a lover, not a fighter?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk

    Well, I have read that she was 15 at the time, so that would be inappropriate. I find that photo and many others from the 1956 Hungarian Uprising fascinating. I’ve learned something about this history from my wife.

    BTW the video Steve posted is excellent, and the girl in it did a good job.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Yes, it had a good spokeswoman.

    One of my female Hungarian ancestors was married at 15. Seems too young today, but in a collapsed neo-agricultural society, it will seem normal.

    I hope it never seems normal again.

  161. @Jonathan Mason
    @Charles Erwin Wilson


    More than I trust you.
     
    So do you believe that a Russian-Saudi accord on oil quotas is expected within a few days? And what percentage of your net worth would you bet on it?

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    On this video of today’s press conference, the discussion about Trump’s calls to Putin and the Crown Prince is at approx -48. He goes on to say that he will be having extensive meetings with oil majors on Friday and with independent producers on Saturday, and possibly Sunday and that if the situation is not resolved quickly he has a solution of his own that he does not wish to reveal at this time that he is pretty confident will work if the free market cannot work out its own solution.

    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
    @Jonathan Mason

    Well, oil prices and stock indexes shot up sharply this morning on the rumor of a pending oil accord, but Russia denies any agreement. Trump is talking about Russia and Saudi Arabia cutting by 10 million barrels a day, but most people who follow oil closely think this is impossible. Also will this deal include cutting US production? Tariffs. If Russia is agreeing to the deal proposed by Trump, what is Russia getting in return?

    Stock indexes that were up 3% this morning have fallen back on the Russian denial. There is obviously more to come on this story as fortunes have already been made and lost on buy the rumor, sell the news.

  162. @Charon
    @anon


    Truman Capote – “In Cold Blood” is still required in a lotta high schools even in Current Year
     
    Well that's certainly crying out for a cite.

    Replies: @keypusher, @anon

    I doubt it’s required in many places, but I think it’s offered as an option to write a paper on quite a bit. My daughter wrote one a couple years ago. If you google “In Cold Blood schools” you get a couple of articles from the last decade or so about controversies in this district or that about it, plus some off-the-shelf essays for students to plagiarize. So it’s still around. Which I’m fine with; it’s a terrific book.

  163. @Muse
    @The Alarmist

    The govt was simply trying to save healthcare worker’s lives by reserving masks for them. Reducing the rate of infection for healthcare workers is the most critical link in the chain. We can ramp up mask production in the next month or two. How long does it take to make a good pulmonologist or nurse? I am getting daily emergency phone alerts on my phone for the State of Illinois begging any available healthcare personnel to volunteer to work.

    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

    Only fools and wishful thinkers believed the government line that masks were not required. Any disease with an R0 over 3 is being transmitted through the air, therefore masks will reduce the threat.

    The long term political question is why we did not have enough masks and other critical supplies for a pandemic that was inevitable? More importantly, why do we allow politicians to promulgate trade policies that reduce the redundancy of the global supply chain by concentrating production in low cost countries that are competing with us for global and economic hegemony?

    Unsurprisingly, Trump for all his bluster and goofiness is dead right about the insane US trade and immigration policies.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @AnotherDad

    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

    I think this is at the heart of it. Here in HK we experienced (and to some extent are still experiencing) the pressure to try to find masks to buy when everybody suddenly realizes it’s time to wear them every day. There wasn’t any real violence here, but there were lots of unpleasant disputes in late January as people stormed anyplace with masks for sale, and then spent days lining up at shops hoping a new shipment would come in.

    People here are in fact still criticizing the HK government for not doing what Macau’s government did, i.e. set up places where citizens could buy a limited but regular supply of masks to see them through the first days of the coronavirus crisis.

    I can’t imagine what the same scenario would be like in the USA — i.e. the whole population suddenly determined to get some masks, by whatever means necessary, and with none available.

    I sincerely hope this scenario doesn’t play out in the USA at this point. Once social distancing is in place, the need for masks goes way down.

    But if the US government announces MASKS GOOD NOW, especially as people try to return to some semblance of normal life, they’d better be ready with ample supplies.

    I’m curious: are any of you in the USA trying to buy masks at this point, either N95 or surgical? Are they available anywhere?

    • Replies: @SOL
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    In the SF area -- I don't see any in the stores, and the HMO hospitals which used to make masks available to visitors withdrew them back in mid-February, if not earlier.

    , @MB
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Dr. Dave Price of Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York City
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=110&v=WxyH1rkuLaw&feature=emb_logo

    FWIW he says masks for general public only keep you from touching your face with your hands, which is the main way the disease is transmitted. So wash hands a lot.

    Doctors who are around infected and dealing in close quarters for 30 minutes yeah, masks needed.

    , @Jack D
    @The Last Real Calvinist


    Once social distancing is in place, the need for masks goes way down.
     
    This is not entirely clear. Initially (not coincidentally when they were lying to us about the need for masks) they said that Wuhan Virus was not airborne but only carried on droplets that would quickly fall out. But the current thinking is that it may be airborne for longer than we think.

    Pretty much anytime you hear a doctor saying that only doctors need masks (see MBs link) you can assume that he is lying. Maybe he is lying to himself too - we call that "rationalizing", but he's still lying. The virus doesn't care if you have an MD license or not. MDs are not the only ones who come in proximity with the infected.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

  164. @AnotherDad
    @anon

    Outing another--i'll just say it--"moron" who doesn't know what a "boomer" is. Yep, we passed the Civil Rights Act, reopened immigration in 65, demanded mandatory busing, amnestied the illegals in '86 (that damn boomer Reagan!).

    That mincing faggot Capote was even born a bit before my dad. Margaret Atwood isn't a boomer either. Nor is Philip Roth. You're 0-3. Sounds like your issue is with Silent generation types.

    If you just mean "everyone older than me sucks!" ... just say it.

    But then, if you want to find someone with daddy issues ... look in the mirror.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @anon

    If you just mean “everyone older than me sucks!” … just say it.

    LOL. Yes, this is exactly what it sounds like when people of newer generations parrot the currently popular insults against boomers. What they don’t realize is, this is exactly how boomers sounded when they blamed everything on older generations.

    Probably every generation does this, at least some members do. There is nothing new under the sun, especially the sons!

  165. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @The Alarmist

    That's because our government is run on behalf of people who are rich enough to ride out a pandemic on their floating castle:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-coronavirus-ravages-the-us-media-mogul-david-geffen-observes-a-sunset-from-his-400-million-superyacht-im-hoping-everybody-is-staying-safe-2020-03-28

    Replies: @Lockean Proviso

    Yacht refuges are so nineties– the cool billionaires have their own island or Patagonian ranch with tested and quarantined staff. If they have to helicopter in for a brief crisis resolution, they’ve got their exposed immunity blood boy to give them antibody doping.

    The Illuminati, of course, have already been vaccinated so that they can stay healthy cashing into and out of the market cycles. Busy days for them.

  166. @AnotherDad
    @anon

    Outing another--i'll just say it--"moron" who doesn't know what a "boomer" is. Yep, we passed the Civil Rights Act, reopened immigration in 65, demanded mandatory busing, amnestied the illegals in '86 (that damn boomer Reagan!).

    That mincing faggot Capote was even born a bit before my dad. Margaret Atwood isn't a boomer either. Nor is Philip Roth. You're 0-3. Sounds like your issue is with Silent generation types.

    If you just mean "everyone older than me sucks!" ... just say it.

    But then, if you want to find someone with daddy issues ... look in the mirror.

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @anon

    If you just mean “everyone older than me sucks!” … just say it.

    OK Boomer! How about this slogan?

    Don’t trust anyone over 30

    lol.

  167. anon[150] • Disclaimer says:
    @Charon
    @anon


    Truman Capote – “In Cold Blood” is still required in a lotta high schools even in Current Year
     
    Well that's certainly crying out for a cite.

    Replies: @keypusher, @anon

    Well that’s certainly crying out for a cite.

    All I gots is some aged out required reading lists. What you got?

    Look, anyone going to college needs to take AP classes in high school, and even better take the AP tests. There’s lots of reading lists to prep for the AP tests. High school curriculum is up to the school or the district or the state, so there’s always some English teacher who’s got her little list, or his little list. It’s not so bad in the 19th century but in the 20th it gets ugly.

    Has every high school student had Twuman crammed down his or her throat? I dunno, but plenty have. Ditto Margaret Atwood. Ditto Ralph Ellis. There are some really crappy books that got good reviews in New York publications and English professors love ’em, so better read them for that AP test, not to mention to get a good reference from the Jr. and Sr. Lit teachers.

    Ya got me, I can’t say that everyone has to read the same crappy modern lit, for the most part. Except…probably everyone has to suffer through Truman Capote Harper Lee’s Mockingbird. No way anyone can be allowed to go to college without that bit of indoctrination. Gotta learn to respect the Numinous Negro, or else.

  168. @Anon
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    What is your problem, you weenie-ass snowflake? Daddy issues? Some 50,000 of my “boomer” cohort died a violent death in Vietnam. But you guys? Boo effing hoo, we couldn’t go to our sex-and-drugs orgy at the beach because of you old farts.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Daddy issues?

    There is something Œdipal about these guys.

    Some 50,000 of my “boomer” cohort died a violent death in Vietnam.

    Couldn’t find US Vietnam War casualties by year of birth, but plenty of other stats are available here:

    http://thewall-usa.com/names.asp
    https://www.militaryfactory.com/vietnam/casualties.asp

    The most affected states were West Virginia and Oklahoma; the worst-hit town (proportionately) was in Ohio, and the high school with the most dead in Philadelphia.

    • Replies: @Hail
    @Reg Cæsar

    US births between Jan. 1, 1940 - Dec. 31, 1950 (the birth-cohort range that I think covers most Vietnam War soldiers/deaths): A little over 35 million, of which a little over 17.5 million were males.

    Prime-age deaths will always have significant ripple effects out beyond those who die. For every death, there were family members left without, without a son, brother, father, husband, boyfriend, best-friend, or solid neighborhood guy who knew everyone.

    Has anyone ever made a calculation of what percentage of Americans lost a first-order relative? (brother, son, father, husband)? I'd also add in "long-term boyfriend," which in those days for most Americans was roughly equivalent to "fiance," pre-official official.

    The 0.3%+ of that US male age-group lost dead in Vietnam will have affected many more than the deceased themselves.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

  169. @J.Ross
    Lyingpress, with its long-established obsession with Trump (and its highly suspicious new obsession with hydrochloroquine): IDIOT TRUMP SUPPORTER KILLS HIMSELF WITH AQUARIUM CLEANER
    Released partially redacted court documents: YEAH, ABOUT THAT ...
    She assaulted her husband 7 months into marriage. Punching and swinging at him with a "decorative bird house on a wooden pole" during an argument about divorcing.
    She also donated frequently to anti-Trump, pro-democrat causes.
    https://www.libertyheadlines.com/ariz-aquarium-cleaner-dem-donors/

    Replies: @ben tillman

    Yes, it appears that she murdered her husband to solve her personal problem and produce political propaganda all in one fell swoop.

  170. @Chrisnonymous
    @res

    Your example is different from what AnotherDad is implying in the quote above.

    On February 12, there was not community transmission in 99% of the US, maybe 100%. "Community transmission/spread" is a technical term meaning that the upstream and downstream contacts of infected people cannot be traced. If there is no community transmission, masks are superfluous.

    Replies: @Jack D, @res

    Right, so this was at a time when we could have still stopped the epidemic. But the CDC totally blew it and let it out into the community.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Jack D

    I don't know if that's fair. It's almost impossible to contain a respiratory infection. Even in controlled settings like hospital ICUs, you occasionally get outbreaks of, say, Klebsiella pneumonia.

    Community transmission is a concept that works much better with things like HIV.

    Right now, the narrative is that South Korea contained everything through contact tracing, but I'm skeptical. We will see when the situation is analyzed in the future. Even if true, SK is small and dense, which makes tracing easier in some ways.

    Replies: @Jack D

  171. @wren
    @NickG

    The Czechs don't have any masks left for universal usage, though. ;-)

    https://www.twitter.com/_JakubJanda/status/1242475545545199617

    Replies: @SOL

    Truly deserving of the epithet “ant people.”

  172. @Altai
    Has Steve seen the Cass Sunstein turnabout.

    https://unherd.com/2020/03/dont-trust-the-psychologists-on-coronavirus/

    Much of the useful advice behavioural scientists can give isn’t really based on “science” to any important degree, and is intuitive and obvious.

    Where they try to be counter-intuitive — for instance, arguing that people are wrong to find a global pandemic frightening — they simply end up embarrassing themselves, or worse, endangering people by having them make fewer pandemic preparations.
     
    https://twitter.com/AriSchulman/status/1243552405075251200

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cass_Sunstein#2019-2020_Coronavirus_pandemic

    He argued that “most people in North America and Europe do not need to worry much about the risk of contracting the disease.” In his view, there was “no adequate reason” to change travel plans or other socioeconomic behaviors, since they risk “plummeting stock prices.” In the face of this, Sunstein urged calm and cautioned leaders to weigh the costs of merely potentially saving lives against the actual costs of falling prices in corporate equities. He blamed this tendency to view possibly saving lives as better than actually saving money on "probability neglect," a term that he invented.
     
    Sunstein is a constitutional lawyer, so what he knows about such subjects or is able to learn in his twilight years is beyond me.

    Sunstein seems like somebody who would have been better suited to have become a Rabbi or a doctor rather than a public intellectual. He seems to just get off on preaching to 'little people' and could have done so in those fields with relatively little harm. He couldn't even get enough of it as a constitutional scholar. America seems particularly suffice with such people.

    But I think it's just another manifestation of the narcissism of modern elites who don't understand that ordinary people might have very different values, incentives and priorities to them and so declare every time that such a conflict erupts that the working classes have given in to 'fear' which is apparently an entirely unhealthy emotion except when they express it in histrionic fashion like they have for the last 3-4 years. Like how doctors don't have unions, they have 'associations', the urban anywhere people (Ikea people: https://jacobitemag.com/2017/09/13/the-ikea-humans-the-social-base-of-contemporary-liberalism/) don't feel fear, they feel 'concern'.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Lugash, @SOL

    Rabbi, indeed.

  173. @Steve Sailer
    @Jack D

    Heinlein wrote a mobile phone into the opening scene of "Space Cadet" around 1950 -- the hero is riding his horse out on the range in New Mexico when he gets a phone call that sets the plot in motion. But I can't recall too many other uses of mobile phones in subsequent Heinlein novels.

    Mobile phones were a challenge for plot construction into the 21st century. The first movie I can recall where mobile phones were fully integrated into the plot without being the main aspect of the plot was "The Departed" in 2006.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Mobile phones were a challenge for plot construction into the 21st century. The first movie I can recall where mobile phones were fully integrated into the plot without being the main aspect of the plot was “The Departed” in 2006.

    Yes, but remember that ‘The Departed’ was just a remake of the (superior, in my opinion) HK-produced ‘Infernal Affairs’ from 2002. Mobile phones already played their integral part in the plot of the original.

  174. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Muse


    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

     

    I think this is at the heart of it. Here in HK we experienced (and to some extent are still experiencing) the pressure to try to find masks to buy when everybody suddenly realizes it's time to wear them every day. There wasn't any real violence here, but there were lots of unpleasant disputes in late January as people stormed anyplace with masks for sale, and then spent days lining up at shops hoping a new shipment would come in.

    People here are in fact still criticizing the HK government for not doing what Macau's government did, i.e. set up places where citizens could buy a limited but regular supply of masks to see them through the first days of the coronavirus crisis.

    I can't imagine what the same scenario would be like in the USA -- i.e. the whole population suddenly determined to get some masks, by whatever means necessary, and with none available.

    I sincerely hope this scenario doesn't play out in the USA at this point. Once social distancing is in place, the need for masks goes way down.

    But if the US government announces MASKS GOOD NOW, especially as people try to return to some semblance of normal life, they'd better be ready with ample supplies.

    I'm curious: are any of you in the USA trying to buy masks at this point, either N95 or surgical? Are they available anywhere?

    Replies: @SOL, @MB, @Jack D

    In the SF area — I don’t see any in the stores, and the HMO hospitals which used to make masks available to visitors withdrew them back in mid-February, if not earlier.

  175. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @NickG

    Any instructions for the DIY crowd on a similar mask? How many filters did your wife use for one of these masks?

    Replies: @NickG, @Simon Tugmutton

  176. @keypusher
    @Hail

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    What's happening is that unprecedented number of people are coming into ICUs. Quoting Philip Lemoine, who analzyed French data over the past decade, he's citing to a chart showing ICU admissions for flu over the past decade:

    "As you can see, it varies a lot, but even during the worst season, the total number of admissions to ICU for the flu never exceeded 3,000 in that period."

    "By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years. If you include the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in hospitals so far, namely 4,032, as well the people who have left ICU because they had gotten better, we must already be approaching and almost certainly even exceeding 10,000 admissions to ICU in less than 3 weeks."

    It's not a hoax, it's not a myth, it's not a plot, it's not innumerate Chicken Littles running around. It's sick people going to the hospital.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Eustace, @Hail, @res

    That’s deceptive though because not all ICU admissions are alike. When I worked in an ICU on the night shift we had a hospitalist that transferred every shortness of breath case from other floors down to us. Many times, they got transferred back upstairs come the day shift. Doctors are different. Some are more or less cautious, and as people they are prone to hysteria like everyone else. My guess is that admissions are up but maybe not all actually required ICU. What percentage? I don’t know.

    But why isn’t Japan with its lack of shelter at home orders and lack of testing experiencing overwhelmed ICU admissions?

    In Japan, doctors are responsible for managing the financial aspect of the health systen as well as patient health. So, for examp!e, I went once with RUQ pain and based ob my history the doctor thought maybe pancreatitis but he didn’t order lipase and amylase because, he said, they can generate false negatives and will cost the system money–better to wait and see than spend money on a test.

    So I wouldn’t be surprised if there are doctors letting older people pass away in nursing homes or at home rather than admit to the hospital.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Chrisnonymous

    The (paid) obituary pages don't lie. The NY Times has a lot more obits than usual and they are mostly people dead of coronavirus. Not all of these people were of advanced age (though most of them were not in perfect health to begin with). By the time you get to 60+ (and in some cases earlier, much earlier) there are a lot of people around with various health problems but absent a killer virus they would live for another 10 or 15 years. In recent years we have made a lot of advances in keeping people with various immune weaknesses or respiratory ailments alive but this virus is going to wipe out those advances. People in perfect health are (mostly) going to be fine but a lot of people aren't in perfect health.


    In a normal year flu would kill some of them but we are seeing excess mortality. On a normal day around 400 people/day die in NY but yesterday there were 400 from coronavirus alone so mortality is running maybe double the normal rate. This is no small thing and what's happening in NY is probably going to happen in a lot of other cities despite the current lockdown because the lockdowns came too late. Our whole approach to this epidemic has been a day late and a dollar short and now we are going to pay for that.

    Replies: @Polynikes

    , @keypusher
    @Chrisnonymous

    It's very unlikely that French ICU stats are inflated by not-very-sick people going. Quoting from the same article, discussing current ICU admissions versus admissions over the past decade:


    Of course, as I noted in my previous blog post, the numbers are probably not entirely comparable. It’s plausible that people with flu-like symptoms are more likely to go to the hospital than during a traditional flu epidemics, but it’s not clear they’re more likely to be admitted to ICU conditional on the severity of their symptoms (I even suspect the opposite is true, since doctors fear ICUs will soon be overwhelmed, which is already the case in some cases), so I doubt this has a substantial effect. Moreover, the French government has been very clear that unless you have serious difficulties breathing, you should just stay at home and wait for the illness to pass. People who don’t have acute symptoms are not even tested.
     
    Similarly, here in NYC, people are instructed not to go to the hospital unless and until they are short of breath. I have a couple of friends who had the full panoply of symptoms (loss of taste and smell; severe headaches; intestinal distress; persistent high fever and dry cough). But neither ever got desperately ill and both recovered (though one is still pretty weak). Neither went to the hospital and neither was tested. I'm sure that not everyone here is following instructions, but I'm equally sure that the hospitals are not putting people in intensive care unless they're quite sick.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    But why isn’t Japan with its lack of shelter at home orders and lack of testing experiencing overwhelmed ICU admissions?

    Because Japan has a low incidence of coronavirus, for reasons that no one really understands, though everyone has theories.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  177. @Thea
    @guest007

    China’s economy is pretty dependent on our economy for trade so the worst is yet to come.

    Replies: @guest007

    Only 18% of the exports from China go to the U.S. and some of those are things like surgical masks that the U.S. is desperate to purchase.

    https://www.thebalance.com/china-economy-facts-effect-on-us-economy-3306345

    The economies that will recover fastest are those that get past the pandemic fastest. That is why all of the government decisions that cause more people to become infected are bad for the economy.

  178. DPG says:

    South Korea seems to be the country that’s handled covid the best.

    One of my nerdier hobbies is watching professional Starcraft, a game dominated by Koreans. A tournament began in Seoul in mid February. The TV broadcasts are available on youtube. You can see almost in real time the growing prevalence of masks.

    The first stage of the tournament featured groups of 4 players who would play each other, with two advancing on the day. In the first episode, broadcast on Feb 16th, they had already banned a live audience and it’s only the players. None of them wore masks. The English speaking commentators talk about Coronavirus a bit at 26:20.

    On the Feb 25th episode, one of the four players is wearing a mask.

    On the Mar 1st episode, again one of the four players wore a mask.

    On the Mar 3rd episode, all 4 players wore masks.

    Finally, with the preliminary group stage complete, they had essentially a social episode on Mar 10th where they interviewed the players as a group and set up the draw for the rest of the tournament. All 16 of the players wore masks. Only the eye candy female host did not.

    At that point Americans were still actively being told not to go out and buy masks. I personally went to a pro sporting event in NYC in early March. California issued its stay at home order on Mar 19th. It wasn’t just testing capacity. The Koreans were way more culturally prepared for this.

  179. @Jack D
    @Chrisnonymous

    Right, so this was at a time when we could have still stopped the epidemic. But the CDC totally blew it and let it out into the community.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    I don’t know if that’s fair. It’s almost impossible to contain a respiratory infection. Even in controlled settings like hospital ICUs, you occasionally get outbreaks of, say, Klebsiella pneumonia.

    Community transmission is a concept that works much better with things like HIV.

    Right now, the narrative is that South Korea contained everything through contact tracing, but I’m skeptical. We will see when the situation is analyzed in the future. Even if true, SK is small and dense, which makes tracing easier in some ways.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Chrisnonymous

    Well if contact tracing and isolation doesn't work for respiratory infections then we are back to masks and other sanitation methods. By the time it's out in the community it's too late for masks, especially since the latest finding is that you can be contagious for at least two days before you have any symptoms. If they had masked everyone up BEFORE it hit the community it wouldn't have hit the community in the 1st place or at least at a much slower rate. But we didn't have a supply of masks or any way of making them or getting them because we outsourced mask making to China and at that point they needed them for their own epidemic and weren't letting any out. So the best the CDC could do was to lie to us so that at least doctors could have them.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  180. @HA
    @Eustace

    "I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968."

    Yeah, this is just a variation of the idiotic "wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything" approach, which I've also seen bandied about here. By the time you get to the point where you know it's worse, it's too late to take the steps needed to limit the damage. That's the problem with exponential growth people seem to have real trouble comprehending.

    "That’s not a statistic I have seen bandied about much this year, and I doubt it would look frightening."

    Again, waiting until it "looks frightening" is really idiotic advice. I'm not saying the most likely post-verdict analysis of coronavirus isn't "nothingburger" (at least, in comparison with a bad flu season). But that's beside the point. Assuming the next hurricane won't be a category IV isn't great social policy, even though the vast majority of time that winds up being a correct assumption in hindsight.

    Once there's enough testing to ensure that this thing is going to be no worse than a bad flu season even without any safety measures taken, then fine. Go ahead full blast, or sequester just the elderly and the Iranians, or just wear masks in public. Whatever it takes to get things back to normal. But don't be an ass and wait until the damage is evident before taking measures. That's the kind of lunacy that the Communist apparatchik tools in Wuhan tried, and is the main reason we're in this mess.

    Replies: @RSDB, @Eustace

    Yeah, this is just a variation of the idiotic “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything” approach

    It’s not a variation of any kind of approach, because it’s not an approach. There is no public policy proposal in the comment to which you are responding. It’s quite possible, even likely, that the commenter to whom you are responding has some sort of policy proposal, but if so he didn’t propose it in this particular comment.

    • Replies: @Eustace
    @RSDB

    We are not advisers to the President, so it is illusory to think of making policy proposals.

    My point is that the policy makers in 1957 and 1968 managed to muddle through without severely undermining the economy, the financial system, and the well-being of a billion healthy people. Maybe they had a better cost-benefit analysis than the current policy makers?

    It is just impossible to bring up the global costs of confinement into the public debate today because the opposing side will just show the picture of one pretty teenage girl who died infected with the COVID-19 - and then they win.

    , @HA
    @RSDB

    "It’s not a variation of any kind of approach, because it’s not an approach."

    You're correct that the "do-nothing-until-later" approach is technically not even an approach. But I'm not going to get into semantic games or split hairs over whether the empty set is really a set or whether zero is really a number (even though the correct answer is yes in both cases).

    The point is, numerous governments were "do-nothing" until they were not (and in the case of Belarus and Brazil -- two fine outstanding countries exemplifying the high regard the rulers have for their citizens, we can all agree on that, surely -- they're sticking with it at present). That's an approach, I would argue. You're free to argue otherwise, but again, it's a semantic game.

    Replies: @RSDB

  181. @Chrisnonymous
    @keypusher

    That's deceptive though because not all ICU admissions are alike. When I worked in an ICU on the night shift we had a hospitalist that transferred every shortness of breath case from other floors down to us. Many times, they got transferred back upstairs come the day shift. Doctors are different. Some are more or less cautious, and as people they are prone to hysteria like everyone else. My guess is that admissions are up but maybe not all actually required ICU. What percentage? I don't know.

    But why isn't Japan with its lack of shelter at home orders and lack of testing experiencing overwhelmed ICU admissions?

    In Japan, doctors are responsible for managing the financial aspect of the health systen as well as patient health. So, for examp!e, I went once with RUQ pain and based ob my history the doctor thought maybe pancreatitis but he didn't order lipase and amylase because, he said, they can generate false negatives and will cost the system money--better to wait and see than spend money on a test.

    So I wouldn't be surprised if there are doctors letting older people pass away in nursing homes or at home rather than admit to the hospital.

    Replies: @Jack D, @keypusher

    The (paid) obituary pages don’t lie. The NY Times has a lot more obits than usual and they are mostly people dead of coronavirus. Not all of these people were of advanced age (though most of them were not in perfect health to begin with). By the time you get to 60+ (and in some cases earlier, much earlier) there are a lot of people around with various health problems but absent a killer virus they would live for another 10 or 15 years. In recent years we have made a lot of advances in keeping people with various immune weaknesses or respiratory ailments alive but this virus is going to wipe out those advances. People in perfect health are (mostly) going to be fine but a lot of people aren’t in perfect health.

    In a normal year flu would kill some of them but we are seeing excess mortality. On a normal day around 400 people/day die in NY but yesterday there were 400 from coronavirus alone so mortality is running maybe double the normal rate. This is no small thing and what’s happening in NY is probably going to happen in a lot of other cities despite the current lockdown because the lockdowns came too late. Our whole approach to this epidemic has been a day late and a dollar short and now we are going to pay for that.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    @Jack D

    What was the total number of deaths in NYC. Take that number and subtract the baseline and you'll get a clearer picture than just taking the hospital coding system (which seem to vary all over the world).

  182. @Chrisnonymous
    @Jack D

    I don't know if that's fair. It's almost impossible to contain a respiratory infection. Even in controlled settings like hospital ICUs, you occasionally get outbreaks of, say, Klebsiella pneumonia.

    Community transmission is a concept that works much better with things like HIV.

    Right now, the narrative is that South Korea contained everything through contact tracing, but I'm skeptical. We will see when the situation is analyzed in the future. Even if true, SK is small and dense, which makes tracing easier in some ways.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Well if contact tracing and isolation doesn’t work for respiratory infections then we are back to masks and other sanitation methods. By the time it’s out in the community it’s too late for masks, especially since the latest finding is that you can be contagious for at least two days before you have any symptoms. If they had masked everyone up BEFORE it hit the community it wouldn’t have hit the community in the 1st place or at least at a much slower rate. But we didn’t have a supply of masks or any way of making them or getting them because we outsourced mask making to China and at that point they needed them for their own epidemic and weren’t letting any out. So the best the CDC could do was to lie to us so that at least doctors could have them.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Jack D

    The CDC's mask recommendations predate the current pandemic. They may have been wrong, but they didn't lie.

    I agree that we shouldn't have outsourced mask production.

  183. @Muggles
    @Jack D

    >>Apparently now that the Chinese have their epidemic largely under control, they are allowing masks out,<<

    Not to be a broken record here, but why is "news" about the wonderful success the Communist Chinese have achieved being repeated and trumpeted as fact? I hope it is true. But what other news do iSteve readers eagerly swallow that is "apparently" true from only one unverified government source?

    Readers here are notoriously skeptical and cynical (beyond belief) about anything the US government says about anything. Or the CDC or any federally funded source. Zero acceptance of what is said, absent outside verification. Yet in China there is zero independent verification or non governmental reporting about the pandemic or anything else. ZERO! No non Chinese are permitted to access basic facts or even interview doctors/scientists or average citizens.

    This is a clearly irrational methodology. The US govt for all of its many flaws doesn't employ, like CCCP controlled China, literally hundreds of thousands of Internet censors or print/TV/radio censors. Do folks here not know that? Why believe them at face value? You get arrested there for violating the Party Line. Or disappeared.

    Does anyone with any sense invest in Chinese businesses absent listings on Western stock exchanges which mandate First World accounting and auditing procedures?

    There is an odd bias, which I see even on libertarian and conservative blogs, which faithfully repeats Chinese "news" while sneering at anything the FDA/CDC says. This appears to be an historical artifact of getting objective criticism of US govt policies from foreign news sources. Even Communist ones, which don't lie about US problems. But that policy doesn't extend to Chinese or Russian analysis of their own government's actions. Consistency of skepticism is required!

    Replies: @Peterike, @SOL

    It’s not just the few who are pro-CCP weirdos or paid influencers?

  184. Masking in HK moves on to the next phase:

    Coronavirus: Hong Kong university to mass-produce reusable face shields for public to help in fight against epidemic

    Here’s what they look like. I don’t know if the mannequin choice is meant to be a troll or not:

  185. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    @Reg Cæsar

    https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/57af94e12e69cf0f15650fbb/1471365432269-0YQEEXI6WNBNC884O1YK/PORTFOLIO-021.jpg?format=1000w

    NOLA sez: Laissez les hautes temps rouler!

    https://cdn6.dissolve.com/p/D428_109_004/D428_109_004_0004_600.jpg

    Replies: @duncsbaby

    Oh, Baron Saturday. The Pretty Things called it back in ’68:

    “Your life was cool, good senses rule
    Throw your life away”

  186. @Chrisnonymous
    @keypusher

    That's deceptive though because not all ICU admissions are alike. When I worked in an ICU on the night shift we had a hospitalist that transferred every shortness of breath case from other floors down to us. Many times, they got transferred back upstairs come the day shift. Doctors are different. Some are more or less cautious, and as people they are prone to hysteria like everyone else. My guess is that admissions are up but maybe not all actually required ICU. What percentage? I don't know.

    But why isn't Japan with its lack of shelter at home orders and lack of testing experiencing overwhelmed ICU admissions?

    In Japan, doctors are responsible for managing the financial aspect of the health systen as well as patient health. So, for examp!e, I went once with RUQ pain and based ob my history the doctor thought maybe pancreatitis but he didn't order lipase and amylase because, he said, they can generate false negatives and will cost the system money--better to wait and see than spend money on a test.

    So I wouldn't be surprised if there are doctors letting older people pass away in nursing homes or at home rather than admit to the hospital.

    Replies: @Jack D, @keypusher

    It’s very unlikely that French ICU stats are inflated by not-very-sick people going. Quoting from the same article, discussing current ICU admissions versus admissions over the past decade:

    Of course, as I noted in my previous blog post, the numbers are probably not entirely comparable. It’s plausible that people with flu-like symptoms are more likely to go to the hospital than during a traditional flu epidemics, but it’s not clear they’re more likely to be admitted to ICU conditional on the severity of their symptoms (I even suspect the opposite is true, since doctors fear ICUs will soon be overwhelmed, which is already the case in some cases), so I doubt this has a substantial effect. Moreover, the French government has been very clear that unless you have serious difficulties breathing, you should just stay at home and wait for the illness to pass. People who don’t have acute symptoms are not even tested.

    Similarly, here in NYC, people are instructed not to go to the hospital unless and until they are short of breath. I have a couple of friends who had the full panoply of symptoms (loss of taste and smell; severe headaches; intestinal distress; persistent high fever and dry cough). But neither ever got desperately ill and both recovered (though one is still pretty weak). Neither went to the hospital and neither was tested. I’m sure that not everyone here is following instructions, but I’m equally sure that the hospitals are not putting people in intensive care unless they’re quite sick.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    But why isn’t Japan with its lack of shelter at home orders and lack of testing experiencing overwhelmed ICU admissions?

    Because Japan has a low incidence of coronavirus, for reasons that no one really understands, though everyone has theories.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @keypusher

    In cases where they do contract tracing, like after a sick person has been at a party, they find quite high rates of trnamission. This has been true since the very beginning when that taxi driver infected an entire dinner party. The Japanese call these "clusters", but the high rate of transmission in these incidents suggests that the virus can spread as easily in Japan as elsewhere (ie, that people's dumb ideas about Japanese "personal space" and lack sociability are just that--dumb ideas). The government is still talking about containing clusters, but the infection broke out of cluster containment weeks ago. It is highly plausible that the incidence in Japan is significantly higher than what published figures show. The question is just how much higher.

    We'll see how things go next week. The gov't seems to be bracing for ICU "overshoot" (their term for excessive admissions) in the coming week. We'll see.

    When all this is over, there is going to be a lot of comparative study done--everything from the physical structure of the ICUs to staff training to admission standards. It will be interesting to see what turns up. Again, I don't think COVID-19 is a hoax, but the differences between nations so far is quite interesting.

  187. @HA
    @Eustace

    "I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968."

    Yeah, this is just a variation of the idiotic "wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything" approach, which I've also seen bandied about here. By the time you get to the point where you know it's worse, it's too late to take the steps needed to limit the damage. That's the problem with exponential growth people seem to have real trouble comprehending.

    "That’s not a statistic I have seen bandied about much this year, and I doubt it would look frightening."

    Again, waiting until it "looks frightening" is really idiotic advice. I'm not saying the most likely post-verdict analysis of coronavirus isn't "nothingburger" (at least, in comparison with a bad flu season). But that's beside the point. Assuming the next hurricane won't be a category IV isn't great social policy, even though the vast majority of time that winds up being a correct assumption in hindsight.

    Once there's enough testing to ensure that this thing is going to be no worse than a bad flu season even without any safety measures taken, then fine. Go ahead full blast, or sequester just the elderly and the Iranians, or just wear masks in public. Whatever it takes to get things back to normal. But don't be an ass and wait until the damage is evident before taking measures. That's the kind of lunacy that the Communist apparatchik tools in Wuhan tried, and is the main reason we're in this mess.

    Replies: @RSDB, @Eustace

    My post cannot be fairly characterized as a variant of: “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything”. It can be fairly characterized as “let’s take the same policy measures as in 1957 and 1968”, unless there is credible evidence that it’s going to be a lot worse. Clearly, when 1968 came around, we did not initially know whether it was going to be like 1957 or would generate millions of dead in the street, did we? And yet we did not lock-down the world economy just on the off-chance, did we?

    If you really want to go down that route, I would say: “wait until there is incontrovertible evidence that this virus is more virulent than the 1957 and 1968 ones before you impose a huge welfare burden on healthy, productive people by shutting down the economy”. As far as I can tell, such evidence is sorely lacking as of now.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Eustace

    "It can be fairly characterized as “let’s take the same policy measures as in 1957 and 1968”, unless there is credible evidence that it’s going to be a lot worse."

    Yeah, in other words: do nothing until such a point in time when you see "it's going to be a lot worse". You're not doing anything but repeating yourself, and it's no smarter the second time around. Given the reality of exponential growth, the lag between infections and symptoms, and the time required to do something other than nothing, that's really, really, idiotic advice.

    Did the idiots in Wuhan do what they should have done from the start? No, I'm guessing their approach was "let's wait until there is credible evidence that it's going to be a lot worse". Did the NYC health commissioner, or the touchy-feely SJW's telling us to go about our daily lives as before (except to be sure and hug a Chinese person), think of doing anything real to limit the damage of this thing while it would have been a lot easier to do so? No, they followed your advice. And so here we are. Really dumb advice.

    Luckily, this is -- from what we can see now -- not the bubonic plague. But at some point, given that China is just going to go back to wet markets and "medicinal" bat soup once this dies down, the way they've always done, this won't be the last time they wind up doing this to us. Maybe the next time it'll be some manure lagoon next to a pig farm in the US for all we know. And next time, it may well be the bubonic plague. But if we wait until we have "credible evidence that it’s going to be a lot worse" than, say the Hong Kong flu (which took out millions, by the way) then even if it's something that eventually takes out tens of millions, it'll be too late to stop it from doing that. That's the nature of exponential growth.

    That's not great advice, I don't care how often you want to repeat it.

    , @Hail
    @Eustace


    “wait until there is incontrovertible evidence that this virus is more virulent than the 1957 and 1968 ones before you impose a huge welfare burden on healthy, productive people by shutting down the economy”. As far as I can tell, such evidence is sorely lacking as of now.
     
    There isn't even evidence of it being worse than the peak flu seasons of the 2010s.

    Just released are the European numbers for Week 13 of 2020 (which I believe means March 22 to 28) (source) (see also a previous comment for remarks on the Week 12 numbers):

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUm9JJRXsAIOQg9.png

    As you see, excess mortality among over-65s rises in each flu season, peaks, then declines. This it tends to do since time immemorial, some years worse than others (for any number of reasons); in recent decades, this process is relatively mild in absolute terms and generally also in relative terms, but the rises and falls are still with us when conditions align for it: viruses spread better in winter, and maybe other reasons, and sometimes randomness with viral mutations. When conditions align to push deaths somewhat up, they do go up, and then they come down after whatever new strain of virus burns itself out, and life marches on.

    As of late March 2020, deaths in the age range 15-64 are below normal. The 65+ age group's deaths are about at what is normally expected for any flu season.

    The mildness of the 2019-20 flu season in Europe is notable, as there were almost no periods of unusually high excess mortality, defined by age-65+ observed deaths exceeding the top-most dotted line. There was briefly a mild peak in early January 2020, which the COVID19 period has matched; both are way below the peaks of previous years.

    Ask anybody on the street to examine the graph for ten seconds and you'll hear almost all say something about the striking peaks, regularly spaced out. The 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19 all had distinct periods of excess mortality in the over-65s,all aligned with peak flu seasons. But not this time, not earlier in 2019-20 and not now during the CoronaPanic. There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis, which corroborates the skeptics' view that has been argued for over the past three weeks.

    This time next week, we'll have even better data; even if total mortality among over-65s does rise to meet the 2018 peak, it is madness to trigger an economic shutdown / major recession over such a thing.

    In trying to understand the mass delusion around CoronaPanic, I think a key insight may end up being that the mildness of the 2019-20 season laid the groundwork for the Panic. Onceflu deaths corrected back slightly, the media's CoronaDrumbeat, backed up vaguely with gut-feelings and some fuzzy- and badly-collected-data tossed in, looked more plausible and caused more and more good people to cave in to CoronaPanic. As I wrote earlier,


    People of the future trying to make sense of this CoronaHysteria of 2020 may point to [the] unusually mild flu season as a partial explanation for the panic. A slight pick-up in late-season, a kind of statistical correction for a previously mild season, created conditions that allowed the media to induce panic, triggering vague memories of movies people had seen, basically.
     

    Replies: @HA

  188. @Muse
    @The Alarmist

    The govt was simply trying to save healthcare worker’s lives by reserving masks for them. Reducing the rate of infection for healthcare workers is the most critical link in the chain. We can ramp up mask production in the next month or two. How long does it take to make a good pulmonologist or nurse? I am getting daily emergency phone alerts on my phone for the State of Illinois begging any available healthcare personnel to volunteer to work.

    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

    Only fools and wishful thinkers believed the government line that masks were not required. Any disease with an R0 over 3 is being transmitted through the air, therefore masks will reduce the threat.

    The long term political question is why we did not have enough masks and other critical supplies for a pandemic that was inevitable? More importantly, why do we allow politicians to promulgate trade policies that reduce the redundancy of the global supply chain by concentrating production in low cost countries that are competing with us for global and economic hegemony?

    Unsurprisingly, Trump for all his bluster and goofiness is dead right about the insane US trade and immigration policies.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @AnotherDad

    The long term political question is why we did not have enough masks and other critical supplies for a pandemic that was inevitable? More importantly, why do we allow politicians to promulgate trade policies that reduce the redundancy of the global supply chain by concentrating production in low cost countries that are competing with us for global and economic hegemony?

    Unsurprisingly, Trump for all his bluster and goofiness is dead right about the insane US trade and immigration policies.

    Spot on Muse.

    The super-state globo-goons were not even ready to handle the most obvious and embarrassing consequences of their own ideology … because that would against globalism.

    Minoritarianism/immigrationism/globalism is a non-falsifiable religious ideology.

    Why prepare for problems with it, when we know that it is good and holy?

  189. @Mr McKenna
    @NickG

    Is HEPA an international standard? The definition here in the USA is "HEPA air filters must meet a minimum efficiency of 99.97% at 0.3 microns." And it's always the specified dimension and larger particles which are stopped, FWIW.

    Separately, I noted this quote from the CMO at WebMD:


    "If you are immunocompromised, such as receiving cancer treatment or recently treated or even perhaps cancer survivor, you are at greater risk for catching the virus and doing poorly," Dr. John Whyte, chief medical officer, WebMD, told Fox News. "Patients with diabetes and heart disease do worse when they get infected. In addition, if you have lung problems such as severe asthma, you are also at greater risk."

    "Too much alcohol can also contribute to difficulties in fighting infection," Whyte said. "Diabetes, heart disease, kidney and liver problems, respiratory diseases, and even severe obesity can make it much harder to recover if you contract the virus."
     

    All of that makes sense to me except for the "greater risk of catching the virus" part. Easy to see why various factors affect your performance once infected but how does (e.g.) cancer treatment affect your likelihood of getting infected in the first place?

    Replies: @Redman, @Dissident

    Easy to see why various factors affect your performance once infected but how does (e.g.) cancer treatment affect your likelihood of getting infected in the first place?

    Re-read the beginning of the quoted-text you posted.
    “If you are immunocompromised, such as receiving cancer treatment or recently treated or even perhaps cancer survivor,

    I assume you know what immunocompromised means.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    @Dissident

    Sigh. If you really care, try reading the part about distinguishing between "performance once infected" and "likelihood of getting infected" -- everyone agrees that the first is affected by compromise. The question at hand is how the second might be, since it's asserted (without evidence) that it is, but only in certain cases. I'll leave you to this because I have no particular desire to insult you.

    Replies: @Dissident

  190. @RSDB
    @HA


    Yeah, this is just a variation of the idiotic “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything” approach
     
    It's not a variation of any kind of approach, because it's not an approach. There is no public policy proposal in the comment to which you are responding. It's quite possible, even likely, that the commenter to whom you are responding has some sort of policy proposal, but if so he didn't propose it in this particular comment.

    Replies: @Eustace, @HA

    We are not advisers to the President, so it is illusory to think of making policy proposals.

    My point is that the policy makers in 1957 and 1968 managed to muddle through without severely undermining the economy, the financial system, and the well-being of a billion healthy people. Maybe they had a better cost-benefit analysis than the current policy makers?

    It is just impossible to bring up the global costs of confinement into the public debate today because the opposing side will just show the picture of one pretty teenage girl who died infected with the COVID-19 – and then they win.

  191. If we hadn’t have “outsourced” our factories maybe we could make masks for everybody. Instead some small shop in South Dakota that’s all that’s left of the America that put a man on the moon and won world war 2 can barely supply a handful of regional hospitals. So to cover their ass they tell us sour grape lies that we didn’t really want those masks they can’t supply us anyway. Sounds like something from the playbook of the lying CCP. Yes it isn’t perfect, but just as the moralists pointed out, “wearing a rubber” wasn’t perfect either back when the gays were getting the purple spots, but it did drastically cut down the infection rate until the cocktail pills and the “gift giver, bug chaser” weirdness came around. So wearing a mask is the new equivalent of the “wear a rubber” campaign in the 80s. It’s not 100% but will drastically reduce the public health nightmare.

  192. @Jack D
    @Chrisnonymous

    The (paid) obituary pages don't lie. The NY Times has a lot more obits than usual and they are mostly people dead of coronavirus. Not all of these people were of advanced age (though most of them were not in perfect health to begin with). By the time you get to 60+ (and in some cases earlier, much earlier) there are a lot of people around with various health problems but absent a killer virus they would live for another 10 or 15 years. In recent years we have made a lot of advances in keeping people with various immune weaknesses or respiratory ailments alive but this virus is going to wipe out those advances. People in perfect health are (mostly) going to be fine but a lot of people aren't in perfect health.


    In a normal year flu would kill some of them but we are seeing excess mortality. On a normal day around 400 people/day die in NY but yesterday there were 400 from coronavirus alone so mortality is running maybe double the normal rate. This is no small thing and what's happening in NY is probably going to happen in a lot of other cities despite the current lockdown because the lockdowns came too late. Our whole approach to this epidemic has been a day late and a dollar short and now we are going to pay for that.

    Replies: @Polynikes

    What was the total number of deaths in NYC. Take that number and subtract the baseline and you’ll get a clearer picture than just taking the hospital coding system (which seem to vary all over the world).

  193. @Chrisnonymous
    @Eustace

    This is a question it's impossible to answer now since every country is taking measures to lock down. Even if death rates are ultimately low, there will always be the point that, well, if we hadn't done anything it would have been different.

    The problem is conflating what we see on the news with actual knowledge. For example, it's not clear how much ventilators help with actual mortality. What we saw in China was a massive attempt to scale up putting people on vents and a massive attempt to keep people off vents. But actually, we don't know what would have happened if the Chinese government had done nothing. And everyone is now acting to prevent themselves becoming Wuhan. (I don't know what's going on in Italy, but neither does anyone else.)

    I don't think COVID-19 is a hoax or that we have necessarily done the wrong things, but I think we should be more circumspect at this point. We need to be serious about the cost-benefit. Otherwise, we will be in a position of having to wreck our economy every few years when novel pathogens emerge.

    Replies: @Eustace

    This is a question it’s impossible to answer now since every country is taking measures to lock down. Even if death rates are ultimately low, there will always be the point that, well, if we hadn’t done anything it would have been different.

    It is a “heads I win, tails you lose” kind of situation. If the excess mortality turns out to be a nothingburger, as is rather likely, then the government will say that it was thanks to the lock-down.

    If the excess mortality turns out significant, the government will say that it took unprecedented lock-down measures to control it. They will even say that it is the fault of the doubters and the disobedient that lock-down failed to bring a good outcome.

    In 1857, the prophetess Nongqawuse told the pastoral Xhosa people to slaughter all their cattle so that the spirits of their ancestors would resurrect and throw the British out of South Africa. When the spirits failed to resurrect, she blamed the doubters and the disobedient (amagogotya) who had refused to kill their cattle. Unfortunately, the other 80% of the Xhosa died of famine.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Eustace

    "If the excess mortality turns out to be a nothingburger, as is rather likely, then the government will say that it was thanks to the lock-down."

    And yet, the makers of Robitussin, and athlete's foot cream, and pink-eye medication will all have a pretty good idea of what this lock-down did to infectious diseases overall -- at least when you aggregate that data together. In other words, there are independent ways of analyzing the situation that will make any easy brush-offs such as you describe a bit more difficult. If you don't trust the government's stats, there are others that will be available to you.

    In any case, the do-nothing-until-mañana side is hardly free of that very same circular reasoning. You see it in those very same graphs being presented here a few comments upward from showing excess mortality, as in "see -- no bumps in the graphs whatsoever! ergo, this was a hoax." But I'm guessing you don't really have a problem when the side you're supporting engages in that kind of thing.

  194. @Hail
    @Eustace


    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.
     
    You are asking the right questions.

    Those of us interested in data over panic have been asking the same. And it turns out, all those who investigate this end up finding that at worst it looks rather like the 1968 flu, which was so minor as to merit people who lived through it not remembering it at all (but assuredly, many especially elderly and sick people did die of it).

    There are an increasing number of specialists and experts sounding the alarm and pointing to this being a fiasco based largely on flat-out bad data/statistics.

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    ________________

    Dr. John Lee (writing March 29), a top expert on the matter in the UK, is now openly challenging the media-mandated Panic Consensus. He makes very good points:

    https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/


    How to understand — and report — figures for ‘COVID deaths’

    Nuance is crucial — not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on health services in coming days.
     

    If you don't want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a "notably high flu season" death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.

    ____________________

    Experts, especially in Europe, and for some reason particularly Germany, are now openly opposing the shutdowns and challenging whether this CoronaPanic ever had any basis at all to have gotten anything like this far (given no worldwide media-driven panic of a few of the bad winter flu seasons in the 2010s). The latest top figure to emerge is a professor of medical microbiology in Germany. His open letter to Merkel slams the shutdown kneejerk response. Text and video:

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsExPrHCHbw

    Dr. Bhakdi appears to have seen enough data to convince him that this is being dangerously overblown. He doesn't rant, though just poses questions. Along the way, he cites a French study just published that shows, using the latest data, that there is no evidence the "novel coronavirus" is more dangerous than any of the other coronaviruses long in regular circulation.

    I previously also recommended people look to the work of Dr. Wodarg, who is on an anti-CoronaPanic crusade (see also youtube video, English subtitled).

    One hopes that data does eventually win over hysteria; if not, are we moving towards a media-administered quasi-theocracy of some kind? (I mean, more than we already were; this is madman-level stuff now; willingness to ruin lives for years to come for nothing.)

    But that Lee article (published in the Spectator US edition (see also rehosted version); expanded from a Spectator UK article some days earlier: It is a good summary of the current situation with a now fairly complete data picture emerging. Among Lee's good insights is that "total corona deaths" is increasingly going to be a really bogus:


    Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had COVID-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to COVID-19, the COVID trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by COVID-19 — would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.
     
    Meanwhile, a new Italian study says that, as suspected, 88% of those dying "with coronavirus" died of something else and the virus was simply detected in their systems (as many other viruses might be, at any given time, if testing is demanded for by a panic-pushing, bloodthirsty media); 12% of the dead died are being deemed "died of the coronavirus," and those are the same age- and condition-profile normal for susceptibility to being lost to a bad case of flu in any winter.

    I fear the pro-CoronaPanic majority may be emotionally committed by now, and it is not easy to admit they were wrong on this, but it's something we have to do, the sooner the better. I worry about an instinct to double down, triple down on the initial kneejerk reaction (as they have), which delays the return to sanity more and more, hurting us all more and more, causing many needless deaths and disrupted lives.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar, @keypusher, @Eustace, @HA

    If you don’t want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a “notably high flu season” death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.

    I completely agree that the current estimates of deaths rates from COVID-19 suffer from inaccuracy both in the numerator and the denominator (which compound badly). Some of the more reliable data coming from countries where there has been diligent testing and essentially no overload of Intensive Care Units, like Germany and South Korea, point to numbers in the 0.6% range. This would be a good guess at present.

    Now 0.6% is more like the 1957 and 1968 flus than the usual seasonal flu. But my point is that, even at such levels, it was not deemed socially optimal to shut down the economy of the first-world countries in 1957 and 1968, and I have yet to see an argument why the decision-makers of 1957 and 1968 were wrong. The decision-makers of those times certainly have enjoyed a good run of 50 years without having been criticized for their actions, even in hindsight.

  195. @keypusher
    @Hail

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    What's happening is that unprecedented number of people are coming into ICUs. Quoting Philip Lemoine, who analzyed French data over the past decade, he's citing to a chart showing ICU admissions for flu over the past decade:

    "As you can see, it varies a lot, but even during the worst season, the total number of admissions to ICU for the flu never exceeded 3,000 in that period."

    "By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years. If you include the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in hospitals so far, namely 4,032, as well the people who have left ICU because they had gotten better, we must already be approaching and almost certainly even exceeding 10,000 admissions to ICU in less than 3 weeks."

    It's not a hoax, it's not a myth, it's not a plot, it's not innumerate Chicken Littles running around. It's sick people going to the hospital.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Eustace, @Hail, @res

    By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years.

    Philippe Lemoine’s past 10 years is a laughably short time frame for thinking about epidemiology. The canard that bad flus recur every 10-11 years has long been debunked. They are extremely erratic. The worst flu of the past 100 years killed 30000 people in France. Nobody bat an eyelid, let alone shut down the whole economy. (It hit in December 1969, if anyone cares about such details). A few schools in the South West closed because the teachers were sick, and some trains got cancelled. That was that.

    So, to quote :

    the burden is on the Shutdowners who want to induce another Great Depression to show their tactics will actually have a large benefit.

  196. Hail says: • Website
    @keypusher
    @Hail

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    What's happening is that unprecedented number of people are coming into ICUs. Quoting Philip Lemoine, who analzyed French data over the past decade, he's citing to a chart showing ICU admissions for flu over the past decade:

    "As you can see, it varies a lot, but even during the worst season, the total number of admissions to ICU for the flu never exceeded 3,000 in that period."

    "By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years. If you include the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in hospitals so far, namely 4,032, as well the people who have left ICU because they had gotten better, we must already be approaching and almost certainly even exceeding 10,000 admissions to ICU in less than 3 weeks."

    It's not a hoax, it's not a myth, it's not a plot, it's not innumerate Chicken Littles running around. It's sick people going to the hospital.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Eustace, @Hail, @res

    CoronaPanic is defined by circular arguments and self-fulfilling prophecies.

    My immediate reaction to the numbers you cite is that considering France caved in to CoronaPanic, their society is shut down, a mass panic has been incited, and doctors and flu patients and the families of flu patients are all being told they are frontline soldiers in World War III and are all heroes, the idea that in this peak-flu period ICU admissions would be higher than normal for a peak-flu season is not the shock of the century.

    Chrisnonymous said the same:

    Doctors … Some are more or less cautious, and as people they are prone to hysteria like everyone else. My guess is that admissions are up but maybe not all actually required ICU.

  197. Hail says: • Website
    @Reg Cæsar
    @Anon


    Daddy issues?
     
    There is something Œdipal about these guys.

    Some 50,000 of my “boomer” cohort died a violent death in Vietnam.
     
    Couldn't find US Vietnam War casualties by year of birth, but plenty of other stats are available here:


    http://thewall-usa.com/names.asp
    https://www.militaryfactory.com/vietnam/casualties.asp

    The most affected states were West Virginia and Oklahoma; the worst-hit town (proportionately) was in Ohio, and the high school with the most dead in Philadelphia.

    Replies: @Hail

    US births between Jan. 1, 1940 – Dec. 31, 1950 (the birth-cohort range that I think covers most Vietnam War soldiers/deaths): A little over 35 million, of which a little over 17.5 million were males.

    Prime-age deaths will always have significant ripple effects out beyond those who die. For every death, there were family members left without, without a son, brother, father, husband, boyfriend, best-friend, or solid neighborhood guy who knew everyone.

    Has anyone ever made a calculation of what percentage of Americans lost a first-order relative? (brother, son, father, husband)? I’d also add in “long-term boyfriend,” which in those days for most Americans was roughly equivalent to “fiance,” pre-official official.

    The 0.3%+ of that US male age-group lost dead in Vietnam will have affected many more than the deceased themselves.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Hail


    Has anyone ever made a calculation of what percentage of Americans lost a first-order relative? (brother, son, father, husband)? I’d also add in “long-term boyfriend,” which in those days for most Americans was roughly equivalent to “fiance,” pre-official official.
     
    Our family's loss was engaged at the time. He was born a few months too early to be a "boomer". I've always wanted to look up fiancée, but don't know her name or how to find her.


    I once worked out that one American nuclear family in 250 lost a member to the war, but never verified that. I don't remember if that was for all fatalities, or only the 30% that were drafted.

    The average age of a fatal casualty was 23, and the peak year 1968. This suggests 1945 or 1946 as the peak birth year.

    https://www.uswings.com/about-us-wings/vietnam-war-facts/

    Whether "boomers" or "silents" dominate the stats is as arbitrary as using Susannah McCorckle's birthday as a dividing line. Someone who cares can do that calculation.

  198. HA says:
    @Eustace
    @HA

    My post cannot be fairly characterized as a variant of: “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything”. It can be fairly characterized as "let's take the same policy measures as in 1957 and 1968", unless there is credible evidence that it's going to be a lot worse. Clearly, when 1968 came around, we did not initially know whether it was going to be like 1957 or would generate millions of dead in the street, did we? And yet we did not lock-down the world economy just on the off-chance, did we?

    If you really want to go down that route, I would say: "wait until there is incontrovertible evidence that this virus is more virulent than the 1957 and 1968 ones before you impose a huge welfare burden on healthy, productive people by shutting down the economy". As far as I can tell, such evidence is sorely lacking as of now.

    Replies: @HA, @Hail

    “It can be fairly characterized as “let’s take the same policy measures as in 1957 and 1968”, unless there is credible evidence that it’s going to be a lot worse.”

    Yeah, in other words: do nothing until such a point in time when you see “it’s going to be a lot worse”. You’re not doing anything but repeating yourself, and it’s no smarter the second time around. Given the reality of exponential growth, the lag between infections and symptoms, and the time required to do something other than nothing, that’s really, really, idiotic advice.

    Did the idiots in Wuhan do what they should have done from the start? No, I’m guessing their approach was “let’s wait until there is credible evidence that it’s going to be a lot worse”. Did the NYC health commissioner, or the touchy-feely SJW’s telling us to go about our daily lives as before (except to be sure and hug a Chinese person), think of doing anything real to limit the damage of this thing while it would have been a lot easier to do so? No, they followed your advice. And so here we are. Really dumb advice.

    Luckily, this is — from what we can see now — not the bubonic plague. But at some point, given that China is just going to go back to wet markets and “medicinal” bat soup once this dies down, the way they’ve always done, this won’t be the last time they wind up doing this to us. Maybe the next time it’ll be some manure lagoon next to a pig farm in the US for all we know. And next time, it may well be the bubonic plague. But if we wait until we have “credible evidence that it’s going to be a lot worse” than, say the Hong Kong flu (which took out millions, by the way) then even if it’s something that eventually takes out tens of millions, it’ll be too late to stop it from doing that. That’s the nature of exponential growth.

    That’s not great advice, I don’t care how often you want to repeat it.

  199. Hail says: • Website
    @Charon
    @Hail


    All the data is against the Doomers, and has been for weeks. The data keeps getting stronger and more robust. All the data says the shutdowns were wrong
     
    EUROPE
    Italy’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported

    Italy is undercounting thousands of deaths caused by the virus in the areas worst hit by the pandemic, a WSJ analysis shows, indicating the human toll may end up being much greater than official data indicate.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

    Replies: @Hail

    Italy also recently conceded that 88% of its NovelCoronavirus-positive deaths were terminal patients whose deaths were not caused by the virus (“deaths with the virus”), with 11%+ as advanced-age persons with serious medical conditions who were not terminal (“deaths from the virus,” though even there, affecting persons already weakened).

    Italy has been subject to criticism for the almost criminally unethical way they’ve been reporting death (and it is the Italian situation that fanned the flames of CoronaPanic in the West more thananything): All deaths in Italy are tested; all that are positive for the new corona virus are tallied up into The Big Scary Number column and tossed out to the bloodthirtsy media, which eats them up happily and growls for more.

    It looks like what this WSJ writer is doing is arguing that there are far more corona-positive people than is known (which we all knew already and is obvious to anyone who does even the slightest amount of critical analysis), and ergo there must be more corona-positive deaths (“deaths with the virus”). This is true but not a novel insight, and publishing it the way they have is also reckless.

    It presents the problem of a healthy 30-year-old Italian speeding down the road getting in a car crash, dying, testing positive at autopsy, and getting tallied into Total Corona Deaths, which is what the Italian counting system has been doing for weeks, and others have began copying.

    The comments at that Wall Street Journal article make a lot more sense than the article itself (often the case).

    • Replies: @keypusher
    @Hail

    It looks like what this WSJ writer is doing is arguing that there are far more corona-positive people than is known (which we all knew already and is obvious to anyone who does even the slightest amount of critical analysis), and ergo there must be more corona-positive deaths (“deaths with the virus”). This is true but not a novel insight, and publishing it the way they have is also reckless.

    No. The authors are saying that there are massive numbers of excess deaths in various Italian towns, far in excess of deaths attributed to covid, and inferring that these additional excess deaths are probably caused by covid also or by ailments that would be treatable if the system were not overwhelmed. They also point out that, contrary to your unsourced and facially absurd claim that "All deaths in Italy are tested"


    The health-care system in the region is so overstretched that doctors can’t treat all the sick. Those who die outside the hospital usually aren’t tested for the coronavirus.

    “They are not receiving postmortem tests,” Eleonora Colombi, a family doctor based near Brescia, says of people who die outside hospitals, such as in nursing homes. “Many of those who die and aren’t tested are old, but you normally don’t have so many people all dying at the same time. It’s corona."
     
    It's difficult to understand how anyone could so misread such a simple article, unless he was determined to deceive himself, and hoped to deceive others.
  200. @Anon
    @Joe Stalin

    A hot car in the sunlight can get up to 130 degrees. If a fever can kill a virus, so can a hot car.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    “A hot car in the sunlight can get up to 130 degrees. If a fever can kill a virus, so can a hot car.

    Sure.

    Heat at 56°C kills the SARS coronavirus at around 10000 units per 15 min (quick reduction).

    https://www.who.int/csr/sars/survival_2003_05_04/en/

    How long is your car in direct sunlight to raise the interior temperature to 56°C?

    Find out with this online calculator.

    https://goodcalculators.com/inside-car-temperature-calculator/

    So does this mean cars parked in the shade or used continually aren’t functioning as sterilizers?

  201. HA says:
    @RSDB
    @HA


    Yeah, this is just a variation of the idiotic “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything” approach
     
    It's not a variation of any kind of approach, because it's not an approach. There is no public policy proposal in the comment to which you are responding. It's quite possible, even likely, that the commenter to whom you are responding has some sort of policy proposal, but if so he didn't propose it in this particular comment.

    Replies: @Eustace, @HA

    “It’s not a variation of any kind of approach, because it’s not an approach.”

    You’re correct that the “do-nothing-until-later” approach is technically not even an approach. But I’m not going to get into semantic games or split hairs over whether the empty set is really a set or whether zero is really a number (even though the correct answer is yes in both cases).

    The point is, numerous governments were “do-nothing” until they were not (and in the case of Belarus and Brazil — two fine outstanding countries exemplifying the high regard the rulers have for their citizens, we can all agree on that, surely — they’re sticking with it at present). That’s an approach, I would argue. You’re free to argue otherwise, but again, it’s a semantic game.

    • Replies: @RSDB
    @HA


    You’re correct that the “do-nothing-until-later” approach is technically not even an approach.
     
    No, I'm correct in that the post to which you were responding didn't prescribe this or any other approach.

    Implicit in your reading of that post is the idea that the 1957 and 1968 flus were in fact well handled, but this is not stated in the post itself. It does seem to be stated in a later post by the same author, however, so perhaps I am being too strict here.
  202. HA says:
    @Hail
    @Eustace


    I still have not seen any convincing person or argument saying that this is worse than the two previous flu pandemics: the Asian one of 1957, and the Hong Kong one of 1968.
     
    You are asking the right questions.

    Those of us interested in data over panic have been asking the same. And it turns out, all those who investigate this end up finding that at worst it looks rather like the 1968 flu, which was so minor as to merit people who lived through it not remembering it at all (but assuredly, many especially elderly and sick people did die of it).

    There are an increasing number of specialists and experts sounding the alarm and pointing to this being a fiasco based largely on flat-out bad data/statistics.

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    ________________

    Dr. John Lee (writing March 29), a top expert on the matter in the UK, is now openly challenging the media-mandated Panic Consensus. He makes very good points:

    https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/


    How to understand — and report — figures for ‘COVID deaths’

    Nuance is crucial — not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on health services in coming days.
     

    If you don't want to read it, I can tell you that he slams data-ignorance or ignorance-based (and IMO possibly-malicious) uses of bad data to stoke alarm and feed the evil beast of this Panic. He slams the CoronaPanic Drumbeat.

    Dr. Lee calculates the likely true death rate from the novel coronavirus is no higher than 0.08% (and even that he says is more likely highball estimate than a lowball). Other experts and specialists have calculated a best-bet 0.01% to 0.1% death rate. These all translate to what might be called a "notably high flu season" death rate, and nothing more, not anywhere near to the millions-of-deaths armageddon the media wants.

    ____________________

    Experts, especially in Europe, and for some reason particularly Germany, are now openly opposing the shutdowns and challenging whether this CoronaPanic ever had any basis at all to have gotten anything like this far (given no worldwide media-driven panic of a few of the bad winter flu seasons in the 2010s). The latest top figure to emerge is a professor of medical microbiology in Germany. His open letter to Merkel slams the shutdown kneejerk response. Text and video:

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsExPrHCHbw

    Dr. Bhakdi appears to have seen enough data to convince him that this is being dangerously overblown. He doesn't rant, though just poses questions. Along the way, he cites a French study just published that shows, using the latest data, that there is no evidence the "novel coronavirus" is more dangerous than any of the other coronaviruses long in regular circulation.

    I previously also recommended people look to the work of Dr. Wodarg, who is on an anti-CoronaPanic crusade (see also youtube video, English subtitled).

    One hopes that data does eventually win over hysteria; if not, are we moving towards a media-administered quasi-theocracy of some kind? (I mean, more than we already were; this is madman-level stuff now; willingness to ruin lives for years to come for nothing.)

    But that Lee article (published in the Spectator US edition (see also rehosted version); expanded from a Spectator UK article some days earlier: It is a good summary of the current situation with a now fairly complete data picture emerging. Among Lee's good insights is that "total corona deaths" is increasingly going to be a really bogus:


    Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had COVID-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to COVID-19, the COVID trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by COVID-19 — would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.
     
    Meanwhile, a new Italian study says that, as suspected, 88% of those dying "with coronavirus" died of something else and the virus was simply detected in their systems (as many other viruses might be, at any given time, if testing is demanded for by a panic-pushing, bloodthirsty media); 12% of the dead died are being deemed "died of the coronavirus," and those are the same age- and condition-profile normal for susceptibility to being lost to a bad case of flu in any winter.

    I fear the pro-CoronaPanic majority may be emotionally committed by now, and it is not easy to admit they were wrong on this, but it's something we have to do, the sooner the better. I worry about an instinct to double down, triple down on the initial kneejerk reaction (as they have), which delays the return to sanity more and more, hurting us all more and more, causing many needless deaths and disrupted lives.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar, @keypusher, @Eustace, @HA

    “You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum.”

    Say what you will about people like Cochran and Unz. They’re neither “non-math” nor “anti-math”. No, it’s the people who couldn’t deal with a logarithm if their lives depended on it who are at the forefront of the coronahoax crowd. You think Bolsonaro or Lukashenko are math-oriented? You think the people seething about their hatred of “boomers” on this site or simply letting us know that this all a “nothingburger” are offering any math to support their claims? You think the idiots who want us to compare infectious diseases to car-wrecks understand exponential growth? No, they’re blabbering about nefarious plots against Trump, and the second amendment and state control and whatever. They’re certainly not bothering with math. To the extent they do, they seem to be doing a really good job of shooting themselves in the feet.

    • Replies: @HA
    @HA

    "To the extent they do, they seem to be doing a really good job of shooting themselves in the feet."

    Sorry, my second link was incorrect, and should have been:

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-contrarian-coronavirus-theory-that-informed-the-trump-administration

    The point remains: the very fact that ordinarily bright/brilliant people on the #coronahoax or #coronaoverreaction end of the spectrum can't seem to avoid simple (yet large and embarrassing) math errors, is a primary reason why that side of the debate is not getting the traction that some around here think it deserves.

    Who would have guessed that modeling stochastic exponential growth (with wide error bands) might prove to be, well, downright difficult?

  203. @Jack D
    @Chrisnonymous

    Well if contact tracing and isolation doesn't work for respiratory infections then we are back to masks and other sanitation methods. By the time it's out in the community it's too late for masks, especially since the latest finding is that you can be contagious for at least two days before you have any symptoms. If they had masked everyone up BEFORE it hit the community it wouldn't have hit the community in the 1st place or at least at a much slower rate. But we didn't have a supply of masks or any way of making them or getting them because we outsourced mask making to China and at that point they needed them for their own epidemic and weren't letting any out. So the best the CDC could do was to lie to us so that at least doctors could have them.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    The CDC’s mask recommendations predate the current pandemic. They may have been wrong, but they didn’t lie.

    I agree that we shouldn’t have outsourced mask production.

  204. @HA
    @RSDB

    "It’s not a variation of any kind of approach, because it’s not an approach."

    You're correct that the "do-nothing-until-later" approach is technically not even an approach. But I'm not going to get into semantic games or split hairs over whether the empty set is really a set or whether zero is really a number (even though the correct answer is yes in both cases).

    The point is, numerous governments were "do-nothing" until they were not (and in the case of Belarus and Brazil -- two fine outstanding countries exemplifying the high regard the rulers have for their citizens, we can all agree on that, surely -- they're sticking with it at present). That's an approach, I would argue. You're free to argue otherwise, but again, it's a semantic game.

    Replies: @RSDB

    You’re correct that the “do-nothing-until-later” approach is technically not even an approach.

    No, I’m correct in that the post to which you were responding didn’t prescribe this or any other approach.

    Implicit in your reading of that post is the idea that the 1957 and 1968 flus were in fact well handled, but this is not stated in the post itself. It does seem to be stated in a later post by the same author, however, so perhaps I am being too strict here.

  205. @AnotherDad
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Boomer sez everyone else ‘ought to’ permanently rearrange their lives cuz boomer is scared. Solopsists.

    Boomers ought to be arrested and quarantined until you stop tantruming in public.
     

    JSOM--

    I've explained repeatedly in my comments, this boomer is not particularly scared precisely because this thing is not very lethal to young healthy people like my kids. It ain't 1918.

    I do however expect "public health" authorities--living comfortably with cushy bennies and lush pensions courtesy of our tax dollars--to ... do the effing jobs! And certainly not outright lie to people about effective public health measures.

    ~

    But more on point--you should dial in political reality.

    It's a more feminized, risk averse nation, with more continuous information flow to jack up anxiety. Politicians can't handle the "tens of thousands dead" even though 2.7 million Americans die every year, so that's 8000 a day dying from something. That's just the reality.

    So if you're missing your chance to pickup drunk chicks in the club ... sorry, but that's off the table until this is reined in.

    But if you simply think the lockdown is over the top and want it lifted ASAP, then instead of tantrums on cringing boomers think it through. How can that end?

    It can end when it can be lifted and this epidemic still controlled with other less invasive public health measures. Oh, like what i'm suggesting--bitching about--wearing masks. If we have public mask wearing during epidemics like this--with respiratory spread a vector--then we can dial back the more obnoxious stuff.

    If you're just too darn cool to wear a mask--fine. But then expect this tedious police statey stuff to linger on and on and on.

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    “If you’re just too darn cool to wear a mask–fine. But then expect this tedious police statey stuff to linger on and on and on.”

    The only way to stop a malicious police state is to submit to the police state.

    The only reason this rape is taking so long and requiring so much violence is that you resist my need to penetrate you and ejaculate.

    Boomerd logic at its finest.

  206. Hail says: • Website
    @Eustace
    @HA

    My post cannot be fairly characterized as a variant of: “wait until there are millions of dead in the street before doing anything”. It can be fairly characterized as "let's take the same policy measures as in 1957 and 1968", unless there is credible evidence that it's going to be a lot worse. Clearly, when 1968 came around, we did not initially know whether it was going to be like 1957 or would generate millions of dead in the street, did we? And yet we did not lock-down the world economy just on the off-chance, did we?

    If you really want to go down that route, I would say: "wait until there is incontrovertible evidence that this virus is more virulent than the 1957 and 1968 ones before you impose a huge welfare burden on healthy, productive people by shutting down the economy". As far as I can tell, such evidence is sorely lacking as of now.

    Replies: @HA, @Hail

    “wait until there is incontrovertible evidence that this virus is more virulent than the 1957 and 1968 ones before you impose a huge welfare burden on healthy, productive people by shutting down the economy”. As far as I can tell, such evidence is sorely lacking as of now.

    There isn’t even evidence of it being worse than the peak flu seasons of the 2010s.

    Just released are the European numbers for Week 13 of 2020 (which I believe means March 22 to 28) (source) (see also a previous comment for remarks on the Week 12 numbers):

    As you see, excess mortality among over-65s rises in each flu season, peaks, then declines. This it tends to do since time immemorial, some years worse than others (for any number of reasons); in recent decades, this process is relatively mild in absolute terms and generally also in relative terms, but the rises and falls are still with us when conditions align for it: viruses spread better in winter, and maybe other reasons, and sometimes randomness with viral mutations. When conditions align to push deaths somewhat up, they do go up, and then they come down after whatever new strain of virus burns itself out, and life marches on.

    As of late March 2020, deaths in the age range 15-64 are below normal. The 65+ age group’s deaths are about at what is normally expected for any flu season.

    The mildness of the 2019-20 flu season in Europe is notable, as there were almost no periods of unusually high excess mortality, defined by age-65+ observed deaths exceeding the top-most dotted line. There was briefly a mild peak in early January 2020, which the COVID19 period has matched; both are way below the peaks of previous years.

    Ask anybody on the street to examine the graph for ten seconds and you’ll hear almost all say something about the striking peaks, regularly spaced out. The 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19 all had distinct periods of excess mortality in the over-65s,all aligned with peak flu seasons. But not this time, not earlier in 2019-20 and not now during the CoronaPanic. There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis, which corroborates the skeptics’ view that has been argued for over the past three weeks.

    This time next week, we’ll have even better data; even if total mortality among over-65s does rise to meet the 2018 peak, it is madness to trigger an economic shutdown / major recession over such a thing.

    In trying to understand the mass delusion around CoronaPanic, I think a key insight may end up being that the mildness of the 2019-20 season laid the groundwork for the Panic. Onceflu deaths corrected back slightly, the media’s CoronaDrumbeat, backed up vaguely with gut-feelings and some fuzzy- and badly-collected-data tossed in, looked more plausible and caused more and more good people to cave in to CoronaPanic. As I wrote earlier,

    People of the future trying to make sense of this CoronaHysteria of 2020 may point to [the] unusually mild flu season as a partial explanation for the panic. A slight pick-up in late-season, a kind of statistical correction for a previously mild season, created conditions that allowed the media to induce panic, triggering vague memories of movies people had seen, basically.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Hail

    "But not this time, not earlier in 2019-20 and not now during the CoronaPanic. There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis, which corroborates the skeptics’ view that has been argued for over the past three weeks."

    Are you factoring in the measures in place to reduce contagion? Of course you aren't. And there's the rub. Yeah, given the reduction of overall contagious diseases (including flu) due to, among other things, all the lockdowns we've seen -- the excess mortality has indeed gone down. It's an open question whether all the excess deaths in the coming months (e.g. loss of employment, increasing child/spouse abuse due to dysfunctional people being cooped up together) will be greater than the lives saved. And the truth is, we don't know yet.

    Famed climate change skeptic Roy Spencer has this to say:
     


    Amazingly, this flu season is seen to be surprisingly mild compared to previous flu seasons in the EU. On the chart I have also indicated the number of reported COVID-19 deaths in the most recent week, around 7,000.

    Why do we not see an uptick on the chart? The charts for individual countries do show an up-tick for Italy (for example), but not unlike what was seen in previous flu seasons.

    The report itself provides two or three possible explanations, none of which are particularly satisfying. Read it yourself and tell me it doesn’t sound like the people writing the report are also somewhat mystified. They don’t mention what I am discussing here.

    So, the chart begs at least two questions:
    1) Are the effects of practicing increased hygiene in response to COVID-19 saving more lives that would have been lost to seasonal flu deaths, than are being lost to COVID-19 itself?
    2) Why are we not outraged and deathly afraid of the seasonal flu (-A and -B), given the widespread death that routinely occurs from those viruses that come around each season?
     

    It's certainly an important data point, but given the restrictive measures in place, hardly the refutation you make it out to be. If anything, it's an argument that lives are being saved. Once the data from Brazil and Belarus and parts of Africa comes in -- assuming it's any good -- we'll have a better understanding. It may well turn out to be the case that the response killed more than the virus THIS TIME AROUND. But so what? China (or camels, or pigs in other parts of the world) unleash viruses like this every couple of decades. Many if not most are mild enough to simply shrug off. That won't always happen. If the approach that's implicitly being advocated here is "wait until we know it's the bubonic plague" (or the Hong Kong flu or whatever) until putting steps into place, then thanks so much, dummy. You, and the people like you in Wuhan are the reason this became a problem in the first place. When it comes to contagion, and exponential growth, those are avalanches that cannot be stopped if you wait until they get big before doing anything. Because by then, it's too late.

    Most rounds of Russian roulette end well (slightly more than 5 out of 6 if one factors in gravitational effects). The vast majority of drunk drivers arrive home safely. The reason we so strongly advise against playing at either of those sports is because the tail risk that comes from being wrong is devastating. (And note neither of those cases involve exponential cascades of distaster as happens with contagious diseases and the overall error bounds involved are much smaller.)

    Replies: @Jack D

  207. @keypusher
    @Chrisnonymous

    It's very unlikely that French ICU stats are inflated by not-very-sick people going. Quoting from the same article, discussing current ICU admissions versus admissions over the past decade:


    Of course, as I noted in my previous blog post, the numbers are probably not entirely comparable. It’s plausible that people with flu-like symptoms are more likely to go to the hospital than during a traditional flu epidemics, but it’s not clear they’re more likely to be admitted to ICU conditional on the severity of their symptoms (I even suspect the opposite is true, since doctors fear ICUs will soon be overwhelmed, which is already the case in some cases), so I doubt this has a substantial effect. Moreover, the French government has been very clear that unless you have serious difficulties breathing, you should just stay at home and wait for the illness to pass. People who don’t have acute symptoms are not even tested.
     
    Similarly, here in NYC, people are instructed not to go to the hospital unless and until they are short of breath. I have a couple of friends who had the full panoply of symptoms (loss of taste and smell; severe headaches; intestinal distress; persistent high fever and dry cough). But neither ever got desperately ill and both recovered (though one is still pretty weak). Neither went to the hospital and neither was tested. I'm sure that not everyone here is following instructions, but I'm equally sure that the hospitals are not putting people in intensive care unless they're quite sick.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    But why isn’t Japan with its lack of shelter at home orders and lack of testing experiencing overwhelmed ICU admissions?

    Because Japan has a low incidence of coronavirus, for reasons that no one really understands, though everyone has theories.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    In cases where they do contract tracing, like after a sick person has been at a party, they find quite high rates of trnamission. This has been true since the very beginning when that taxi driver infected an entire dinner party. The Japanese call these “clusters”, but the high rate of transmission in these incidents suggests that the virus can spread as easily in Japan as elsewhere (ie, that people’s dumb ideas about Japanese “personal space” and lack sociability are just that–dumb ideas). The government is still talking about containing clusters, but the infection broke out of cluster containment weeks ago. It is highly plausible that the incidence in Japan is significantly higher than what published figures show. The question is just how much higher.

    We’ll see how things go next week. The gov’t seems to be bracing for ICU “overshoot” (their term for excessive admissions) in the coming week. We’ll see.

    When all this is over, there is going to be a lot of comparative study done–everything from the physical structure of the ICUs to staff training to admission standards. It will be interesting to see what turns up. Again, I don’t think COVID-19 is a hoax, but the differences between nations so far is quite interesting.

  208. res says:
    @Polymath
    @res

    Motl is right a lot more often than he is wrong, but he doesn’t have the data necessary to justify the level of confidence he has in his current opinions about this.

    Replies: @res

    Motl is right a lot more often than he is wrong, but he doesn’t have the data necessary to justify the level of confidence he has in his current opinions about this.

    I’m not that familiar with Motl’s writing, but that seems like a good take on him overall.

  209. HA says:
    @Hail
    @Eustace


    “wait until there is incontrovertible evidence that this virus is more virulent than the 1957 and 1968 ones before you impose a huge welfare burden on healthy, productive people by shutting down the economy”. As far as I can tell, such evidence is sorely lacking as of now.
     
    There isn't even evidence of it being worse than the peak flu seasons of the 2010s.

    Just released are the European numbers for Week 13 of 2020 (which I believe means March 22 to 28) (source) (see also a previous comment for remarks on the Week 12 numbers):

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUm9JJRXsAIOQg9.png

    As you see, excess mortality among over-65s rises in each flu season, peaks, then declines. This it tends to do since time immemorial, some years worse than others (for any number of reasons); in recent decades, this process is relatively mild in absolute terms and generally also in relative terms, but the rises and falls are still with us when conditions align for it: viruses spread better in winter, and maybe other reasons, and sometimes randomness with viral mutations. When conditions align to push deaths somewhat up, they do go up, and then they come down after whatever new strain of virus burns itself out, and life marches on.

    As of late March 2020, deaths in the age range 15-64 are below normal. The 65+ age group's deaths are about at what is normally expected for any flu season.

    The mildness of the 2019-20 flu season in Europe is notable, as there were almost no periods of unusually high excess mortality, defined by age-65+ observed deaths exceeding the top-most dotted line. There was briefly a mild peak in early January 2020, which the COVID19 period has matched; both are way below the peaks of previous years.

    Ask anybody on the street to examine the graph for ten seconds and you'll hear almost all say something about the striking peaks, regularly spaced out. The 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19 all had distinct periods of excess mortality in the over-65s,all aligned with peak flu seasons. But not this time, not earlier in 2019-20 and not now during the CoronaPanic. There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis, which corroborates the skeptics' view that has been argued for over the past three weeks.

    This time next week, we'll have even better data; even if total mortality among over-65s does rise to meet the 2018 peak, it is madness to trigger an economic shutdown / major recession over such a thing.

    In trying to understand the mass delusion around CoronaPanic, I think a key insight may end up being that the mildness of the 2019-20 season laid the groundwork for the Panic. Onceflu deaths corrected back slightly, the media's CoronaDrumbeat, backed up vaguely with gut-feelings and some fuzzy- and badly-collected-data tossed in, looked more plausible and caused more and more good people to cave in to CoronaPanic. As I wrote earlier,


    People of the future trying to make sense of this CoronaHysteria of 2020 may point to [the] unusually mild flu season as a partial explanation for the panic. A slight pick-up in late-season, a kind of statistical correction for a previously mild season, created conditions that allowed the media to induce panic, triggering vague memories of movies people had seen, basically.
     

    Replies: @HA

    “But not this time, not earlier in 2019-20 and not now during the CoronaPanic. There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis, which corroborates the skeptics’ view that has been argued for over the past three weeks.”

    Are you factoring in the measures in place to reduce contagion? Of course you aren’t. And there’s the rub. Yeah, given the reduction of overall contagious diseases (including flu) due to, among other things, all the lockdowns we’ve seen — the excess mortality has indeed gone down. It’s an open question whether all the excess deaths in the coming months (e.g. loss of employment, increasing child/spouse abuse due to dysfunctional people being cooped up together) will be greater than the lives saved. And the truth is, we don’t know yet.

    Famed climate change skeptic Roy Spencer has this to say:

    Amazingly, this flu season is seen to be surprisingly mild compared to previous flu seasons in the EU. On the chart I have also indicated the number of reported COVID-19 deaths in the most recent week, around 7,000.

    Why do we not see an uptick on the chart? The charts for individual countries do show an up-tick for Italy (for example), but not unlike what was seen in previous flu seasons.

    The report itself provides two or three possible explanations, none of which are particularly satisfying. Read it yourself and tell me it doesn’t sound like the people writing the report are also somewhat mystified. They don’t mention what I am discussing here.

    So, the chart begs at least two questions:
    1) Are the effects of practicing increased hygiene in response to COVID-19 saving more lives that would have been lost to seasonal flu deaths, than are being lost to COVID-19 itself?
    2) Why are we not outraged and deathly afraid of the seasonal flu (-A and -B), given the widespread death that routinely occurs from those viruses that come around each season?

    It’s certainly an important data point, but given the restrictive measures in place, hardly the refutation you make it out to be. If anything, it’s an argument that lives are being saved. Once the data from Brazil and Belarus and parts of Africa comes in — assuming it’s any good — we’ll have a better understanding. It may well turn out to be the case that the response killed more than the virus THIS TIME AROUND. But so what? China (or camels, or pigs in other parts of the world) unleash viruses like this every couple of decades. Many if not most are mild enough to simply shrug off. That won’t always happen. If the approach that’s implicitly being advocated here is “wait until we know it’s the bubonic plague” (or the Hong Kong flu or whatever) until putting steps into place, then thanks so much, dummy. You, and the people like you in Wuhan are the reason this became a problem in the first place. When it comes to contagion, and exponential growth, those are avalanches that cannot be stopped if you wait until they get big before doing anything. Because by then, it’s too late.

    Most rounds of Russian roulette end well (slightly more than 5 out of 6 if one factors in gravitational effects). The vast majority of drunk drivers arrive home safely. The reason we so strongly advise against playing at either of those sports is because the tail risk that comes from being wrong is devastating. (And note neither of those cases involve exponential cascades of distaster as happens with contagious diseases and the overall error bounds involved are much smaller.)

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @HA


    It’s an open question whether all the excess deaths in the coming months (e.g. loss of employment, increasing child/spouse abuse due to dysfunctional people being cooped up together) will be greater than the lives saved. And the truth is, we don’t know yet.
     
    I would wager that more lives will be saved than lost but this would be true any time we imposed such a stoppage (and this is the first time that we have) and just because lives are saved doesn't mean its a good idea that is worth destroying our economy for. What has changed that justifies a lockdown vs all of the other epidemics in the last century?

    In a lockdown, industrial pollution goes down, auto accidents go down, flu deaths go down and so on. In NYC even murder went down. There are many beneficial health effects and yet we don't keep the world on permanent lockdown nor have we ever even locked it down temporarily. What is different now?

    Replies: @HA

  210. @Chrisnonymous
    @res

    Your example is different from what AnotherDad is implying in the quote above.

    On February 12, there was not community transmission in 99% of the US, maybe 100%. "Community transmission/spread" is a technical term meaning that the upstream and downstream contacts of infected people cannot be traced. If there is no community transmission, masks are superfluous.

    Replies: @Jack D, @res

    Perhaps. It was meant as only one example. Do you have any examples showing the CDC changed that guidance? They only seem to be considering doing so in the last few days.

    Here is an article about masks from March 2nd.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cdc-says-americans-dont-have-to-wear-facemasks-because-of-coronavirus-2020-01-30

  211. @Jack D
    @Jonathan Mason

    This is just Trump, being Trump, putting a positive spin on things. If you are a real estate developer and your building is near a noisy highway, it is "close to transportation". Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He's just riffing. Maybe it is because they are used to worshiping their leaders and their sharply creased pants as gods because they have none other.

    Replies: @Charon, @Jonathan Mason, @res, @MEH 0910

    Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle?

    Because it allows them to say he is wrong and pretend he is stupid.

  212. res says:
    @keypusher
    @Hail

    You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum; in celebration of their dubious achievement, in their ecstasy of triumph they arranged and carried out ad-hoc executions of the guardians of sound statistical methodology (unpatriotic losers!), and ordered the death dance to roll on.

    What's happening is that unprecedented number of people are coming into ICUs. Quoting Philip Lemoine, who analzyed French data over the past decade, he's citing to a chart showing ICU admissions for flu over the past decade:

    "As you can see, it varies a lot, but even during the worst season, the total number of admissions to ICU for the flu never exceeded 3,000 in that period."

    "By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years. If you include the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in hospitals so far, namely 4,032, as well the people who have left ICU because they had gotten better, we must already be approaching and almost certainly even exceeding 10,000 admissions to ICU in less than 3 weeks."

    It's not a hoax, it's not a myth, it's not a plot, it's not innumerate Chicken Littles running around. It's sick people going to the hospital.

    https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Eustace, @Hail, @res

    I like Hail’s approach of using the 1968 flu as an analogy (which you chose to ignore, in favor of just looking at the previous decade). This 2007 paper compares hypothetical cases to the 1918 and 1968 flus.
    Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17521095

    Abstract:

    William Beaumont Army Medical Center conducted quantitative modeling with FluSurge 2.0 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to determine hospital capabilities in responding to patient arrival surges of the Fort Bliss population in mild 1968-type and severe 1918-type influenza pandemics. Model predictions showed that William Beaumont Army Medical Center could adequately care for all intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients during a mild pandemic, particularly if hospital capacity was expanded using the emergency management plan, excess surge plan, or activation of a contagious disease outbreak facility. For a severe influenza pandemic, model predictions showed that hospital beds, ventilators, and other resources would be exceeded within 2 or 3 weeks. Even at maximal hospital expansion, for a 12-week severe pandemic with a 35% attack rate there would be peak demand for 214% of available non-ICU beds, 785% of ICU beds, and 392% of ventilators. Health care planners and decision-makers should prepare for resource challenges when developing plans for the next influenza pandemic.

    Sample excerpts:

    Using the model parameters within FluSurge for both mild and severe pandemics, metropolitan Atlanta hospitals were predicted to have the capacity to sustain a 1968-type outbreak but would be overwhelmed in a 1918-type outbreak.

    Here is an analysis in that vein. But first, the CDC FluSurge web page (notice that they use the 1968 flu as the default analysis):
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/tools/flusurge.htm

    This page was created March 13th, but I can’t figure out if it has been updated over time.
    https://qventus.com/blog/predicting-the-effects-of-the-covid-pandemic-on-us-health-system-capacity/

    It gives a detailed analysis of hospital capacity over the level of surge they expected (they estimate week 1 of their plots as mid-April with weeks 4-6 being the peak. In addition to the state level analysis, they also look at CBSAs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core-based_statistical_area

    The moderate (1968) scenario mostly peaks at 100-150% of capacity. Here is their national summary.

    Impact at a National Level:

    Using the “moderate” assumptions (1958/1968-like), if the pandemic occurs nationwide the model projects that:

    – Approximately 6.1 million people will be infected (1.86% of the population), and 1.17 million people will be hospitalized (0.35% of the population)
    – 326,000 Med-Surg beds and 24,500 ICU beds will be needed just to care for COVID-19 patients during peak load times (above typical patient needs)
    – At peak, there will be a shortage of 9,100 ICU beds and 115,000 Med-Surg beds nationwide. At typical staffing ratios this would require 325,000 additional staff, which would be a key constraint in a situation where childcare, infection concerns and quarantine will already place a strain on existing staff availability.
    – There could be roughly 200,000 deaths caused by COVID-19

    Note that the 1968 flu itself had an estimated 100,000 deaths (I see other estimates around 34k?) and 0.5% CFR. One bit of trivia about the 1968 H3N2 virus:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291411/

    Thirty-seven years later, the H3N2 subtype still reigns as the major and most troublesome influenza A virus in humans.

    Now, of course, comes the most important question. How accurate is that FluSurge model for our current situation? I am not encouraged by the lack of updating given it is almost 3 weeks old. Does anyone know of a more recent version? Or of efforts to track the projections against reality?

    • Replies: @keypusher
    @res

    I like Hail’s approach of using the 1968 flu as an analogy (which you chose to ignore, in favor of just looking at the previous decade). This 2007 paper compares hypothetical cases to the 1918 and 1968 flus.

    I haven't said anything about the 1968 flu, because I don't know anything about it. I was quoting someone who had researched ICU admissions in France over the past ten years and demonstrated that admissions over the past three weeks dwarfed admissions for flu over the entire flu season for any of those years. Shame on him for not analyzing ICU admission figures for France in 1968.

    I'll look at research on the 1968 flu if and when I have time.

  213. @Hail
    @Charon

    Italy also recently conceded that 88% of its NovelCoronavirus-positive deaths were terminal patients whose deaths were not caused by the virus ("deaths with the virus"), with 11%+ as advanced-age persons with serious medical conditions who were not terminal ("deaths from the virus," though even there, affecting persons already weakened).

    Italy has been subject to criticism for the almost criminally unethical way they've been reporting death (and it is the Italian situation that fanned the flames of CoronaPanic in the West more thananything): All deaths in Italy are tested; all that are positive for the new corona virus are tallied up into The Big Scary Number column and tossed out to the bloodthirtsy media, which eats them up happily and growls for more.

    It looks like what this WSJ writer is doing is arguing that there are far more corona-positive people than is known (which we all knew already and is obvious to anyone who does even the slightest amount of critical analysis), and ergo there must be more corona-positive deaths ("deaths with the virus"). This is true but not a novel insight, and publishing it the way they have is also reckless.

    It presents the problem of a healthy 30-year-old Italian speeding down the road getting in a car crash, dying, testing positive at autopsy, and getting tallied into Total Corona Deaths, which is what the Italian counting system has been doing for weeks, and others have began copying.

    The comments at that Wall Street Journal article make a lot more sense than the article itself (often the case).

    Replies: @keypusher

    It looks like what this WSJ writer is doing is arguing that there are far more corona-positive people than is known (which we all knew already and is obvious to anyone who does even the slightest amount of critical analysis), and ergo there must be more corona-positive deaths (“deaths with the virus”). This is true but not a novel insight, and publishing it the way they have is also reckless.

    No. The authors are saying that there are massive numbers of excess deaths in various Italian towns, far in excess of deaths attributed to covid, and inferring that these additional excess deaths are probably caused by covid also or by ailments that would be treatable if the system were not overwhelmed. They also point out that, contrary to your unsourced and facially absurd claim that “All deaths in Italy are tested”

    The health-care system in the region is so overstretched that doctors can’t treat all the sick. Those who die outside the hospital usually aren’t tested for the coronavirus.

    “They are not receiving postmortem tests,” Eleonora Colombi, a family doctor based near Brescia, says of people who die outside hospitals, such as in nursing homes. “Many of those who die and aren’t tested are old, but you normally don’t have so many people all dying at the same time. It’s corona.”

    It’s difficult to understand how anyone could so misread such a simple article, unless he was determined to deceive himself, and hoped to deceive others.

  214. @res
    @keypusher

    I like Hail's approach of using the 1968 flu as an analogy (which you chose to ignore, in favor of just looking at the previous decade). This 2007 paper compares hypothetical cases to the 1918 and 1968 flus.
    Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17521095

    Abstract:


    William Beaumont Army Medical Center conducted quantitative modeling with FluSurge 2.0 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to determine hospital capabilities in responding to patient arrival surges of the Fort Bliss population in mild 1968-type and severe 1918-type influenza pandemics. Model predictions showed that William Beaumont Army Medical Center could adequately care for all intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients during a mild pandemic, particularly if hospital capacity was expanded using the emergency management plan, excess surge plan, or activation of a contagious disease outbreak facility. For a severe influenza pandemic, model predictions showed that hospital beds, ventilators, and other resources would be exceeded within 2 or 3 weeks. Even at maximal hospital expansion, for a 12-week severe pandemic with a 35% attack rate there would be peak demand for 214% of available non-ICU beds, 785% of ICU beds, and 392% of ventilators. Health care planners and decision-makers should prepare for resource challenges when developing plans for the next influenza pandemic.
     
    Sample excerpts:

    Using the model parameters within FluSurge for both mild and severe pandemics, metropolitan Atlanta hospitals were predicted to have the capacity to sustain a 1968-type outbreak but would be overwhelmed in a 1918-type outbreak.
     
    Here is an analysis in that vein. But first, the CDC FluSurge web page (notice that they use the 1968 flu as the default analysis):
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/tools/flusurge.htm

    This page was created March 13th, but I can't figure out if it has been updated over time.
    https://qventus.com/blog/predicting-the-effects-of-the-covid-pandemic-on-us-health-system-capacity/

    It gives a detailed analysis of hospital capacity over the level of surge they expected (they estimate week 1 of their plots as mid-April with weeks 4-6 being the peak. In addition to the state level analysis, they also look at CBSAs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core-based_statistical_area

    The moderate (1968) scenario mostly peaks at 100-150% of capacity. Here is their national summary.

    Impact at a National Level:

    Using the “moderate” assumptions (1958/1968-like), if the pandemic occurs nationwide the model projects that:

    - Approximately 6.1 million people will be infected (1.86% of the population), and 1.17 million people will be hospitalized (0.35% of the population)
    - 326,000 Med-Surg beds and 24,500 ICU beds will be needed just to care for COVID-19 patients during peak load times (above typical patient needs)
    - At peak, there will be a shortage of 9,100 ICU beds and 115,000 Med-Surg beds nationwide. At typical staffing ratios this would require 325,000 additional staff, which would be a key constraint in a situation where childcare, infection concerns and quarantine will already place a strain on existing staff availability.
    - There could be roughly 200,000 deaths caused by COVID-19
     
    Note that the 1968 flu itself had an estimated 100,000 deaths (I see other estimates around 34k?) and 0.5% CFR. One bit of trivia about the 1968 H3N2 virus:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291411/

    Thirty-seven years later, the H3N2 subtype still reigns as the major and most troublesome influenza A virus in humans.
     
    Now, of course, comes the most important question. How accurate is that FluSurge model for our current situation? I am not encouraged by the lack of updating given it is almost 3 weeks old. Does anyone know of a more recent version? Or of efforts to track the projections against reality?

    Replies: @keypusher

    I like Hail’s approach of using the 1968 flu as an analogy (which you chose to ignore, in favor of just looking at the previous decade). This 2007 paper compares hypothetical cases to the 1918 and 1968 flus.

    I haven’t said anything about the 1968 flu, because I don’t know anything about it. I was quoting someone who had researched ICU admissions in France over the past ten years and demonstrated that admissions over the past three weeks dwarfed admissions for flu over the entire flu season for any of those years. Shame on him for not analyzing ICU admission figures for France in 1968.

    I’ll look at research on the 1968 flu if and when I have time.

  215. @Jonathan Mason
    @Jonathan Mason

    On this video of today's press conference, the discussion about Trump's calls to Putin and the Crown Prince is at approx -48. He goes on to say that he will be having extensive meetings with oil majors on Friday and with independent producers on Saturday, and possibly Sunday and that if the situation is not resolved quickly he has a solution of his own that he does not wish to reveal at this time that he is pretty confident will work if the free market cannot work out its own solution.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNtgyv3ACpw&feature=emb_logo

    Replies: @Jonathan Mason

    Well, oil prices and stock indexes shot up sharply this morning on the rumor of a pending oil accord, but Russia denies any agreement. Trump is talking about Russia and Saudi Arabia cutting by 10 million barrels a day, but most people who follow oil closely think this is impossible. Also will this deal include cutting US production? Tariffs. If Russia is agreeing to the deal proposed by Trump, what is Russia getting in return?

    Stock indexes that were up 3% this morning have fallen back on the Russian denial. There is obviously more to come on this story as fortunes have already been made and lost on buy the rumor, sell the news.

  216. MB says: • Website
    @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Muse


    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

     

    I think this is at the heart of it. Here in HK we experienced (and to some extent are still experiencing) the pressure to try to find masks to buy when everybody suddenly realizes it's time to wear them every day. There wasn't any real violence here, but there were lots of unpleasant disputes in late January as people stormed anyplace with masks for sale, and then spent days lining up at shops hoping a new shipment would come in.

    People here are in fact still criticizing the HK government for not doing what Macau's government did, i.e. set up places where citizens could buy a limited but regular supply of masks to see them through the first days of the coronavirus crisis.

    I can't imagine what the same scenario would be like in the USA -- i.e. the whole population suddenly determined to get some masks, by whatever means necessary, and with none available.

    I sincerely hope this scenario doesn't play out in the USA at this point. Once social distancing is in place, the need for masks goes way down.

    But if the US government announces MASKS GOOD NOW, especially as people try to return to some semblance of normal life, they'd better be ready with ample supplies.

    I'm curious: are any of you in the USA trying to buy masks at this point, either N95 or surgical? Are they available anywhere?

    Replies: @SOL, @MB, @Jack D

    Dr. Dave Price of Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York City
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=110&v=WxyH1rkuLaw&feature=emb_logo

    FWIW he says masks for general public only keep you from touching your face with your hands, which is the main way the disease is transmitted. So wash hands a lot.

    Doctors who are around infected and dealing in close quarters for 30 minutes yeah, masks needed.

  217. @Hail
    @Reg Cæsar

    US births between Jan. 1, 1940 - Dec. 31, 1950 (the birth-cohort range that I think covers most Vietnam War soldiers/deaths): A little over 35 million, of which a little over 17.5 million were males.

    Prime-age deaths will always have significant ripple effects out beyond those who die. For every death, there were family members left without, without a son, brother, father, husband, boyfriend, best-friend, or solid neighborhood guy who knew everyone.

    Has anyone ever made a calculation of what percentage of Americans lost a first-order relative? (brother, son, father, husband)? I'd also add in "long-term boyfriend," which in those days for most Americans was roughly equivalent to "fiance," pre-official official.

    The 0.3%+ of that US male age-group lost dead in Vietnam will have affected many more than the deceased themselves.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Has anyone ever made a calculation of what percentage of Americans lost a first-order relative? (brother, son, father, husband)? I’d also add in “long-term boyfriend,” which in those days for most Americans was roughly equivalent to “fiance,” pre-official official.

    Our family’s loss was engaged at the time. He was born a few months too early to be a “boomer”. I’ve always wanted to look up fiancée, but don’t know her name or how to find her.

    I once worked out that one American nuclear family in 250 lost a member to the war, but never verified that. I don’t remember if that was for all fatalities, or only the 30% that were drafted.

    The average age of a fatal casualty was 23, and the peak year 1968. This suggests 1945 or 1946 as the peak birth year.

    https://www.uswings.com/about-us-wings/vietnam-war-facts/

    Whether “boomers” or “silents” dominate the stats is as arbitrary as using Susannah McCorckle’s birthday as a dividing line. Someone who cares can do that calculation.

  218. HA says:
    @HA
    @Hail

    "You know what it looks like to me. It looks like non-math and anti-math people managed to take over the asylum."


    Say what you will about people like Cochran and Unz. They're neither "non-math" nor "anti-math". No, it's the people who couldn't deal with a logarithm if their lives depended on it who are at the forefront of the coronahoax crowd. You think Bolsonaro or Lukashenko are math-oriented? You think the people seething about their hatred of "boomers" on this site or simply letting us know that this all a "nothingburger" are offering any math to support their claims? You think the idiots who want us to compare infectious diseases to car-wrecks understand exponential growth? No, they're blabbering about nefarious plots against Trump, and the second amendment and state control and whatever. They're certainly not bothering with math. To the extent they do, they seem to be doing a really good job of shooting themselves in the feet.

    Replies: @HA

    “To the extent they do, they seem to be doing a really good job of shooting themselves in the feet.”

    Sorry, my second link was incorrect, and should have been:

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-contrarian-coronavirus-theory-that-informed-the-trump-administration

    The point remains: the very fact that ordinarily bright/brilliant people on the #coronahoax or #coronaoverreaction end of the spectrum can’t seem to avoid simple (yet large and embarrassing) math errors, is a primary reason why that side of the debate is not getting the traction that some around here think it deserves.

    Who would have guessed that modeling stochastic exponential growth (with wide error bands) might prove to be, well, downright difficult?

  219. @HA
    @Hail

    "But not this time, not earlier in 2019-20 and not now during the CoronaPanic. There is no sudden skyrocketing of total mortality rates even among the most-at-risk-cohort, with this total-mortality data now available through March 28, which is well into the crisis, which corroborates the skeptics’ view that has been argued for over the past three weeks."

    Are you factoring in the measures in place to reduce contagion? Of course you aren't. And there's the rub. Yeah, given the reduction of overall contagious diseases (including flu) due to, among other things, all the lockdowns we've seen -- the excess mortality has indeed gone down. It's an open question whether all the excess deaths in the coming months (e.g. loss of employment, increasing child/spouse abuse due to dysfunctional people being cooped up together) will be greater than the lives saved. And the truth is, we don't know yet.

    Famed climate change skeptic Roy Spencer has this to say:
     


    Amazingly, this flu season is seen to be surprisingly mild compared to previous flu seasons in the EU. On the chart I have also indicated the number of reported COVID-19 deaths in the most recent week, around 7,000.

    Why do we not see an uptick on the chart? The charts for individual countries do show an up-tick for Italy (for example), but not unlike what was seen in previous flu seasons.

    The report itself provides two or three possible explanations, none of which are particularly satisfying. Read it yourself and tell me it doesn’t sound like the people writing the report are also somewhat mystified. They don’t mention what I am discussing here.

    So, the chart begs at least two questions:
    1) Are the effects of practicing increased hygiene in response to COVID-19 saving more lives that would have been lost to seasonal flu deaths, than are being lost to COVID-19 itself?
    2) Why are we not outraged and deathly afraid of the seasonal flu (-A and -B), given the widespread death that routinely occurs from those viruses that come around each season?
     

    It's certainly an important data point, but given the restrictive measures in place, hardly the refutation you make it out to be. If anything, it's an argument that lives are being saved. Once the data from Brazil and Belarus and parts of Africa comes in -- assuming it's any good -- we'll have a better understanding. It may well turn out to be the case that the response killed more than the virus THIS TIME AROUND. But so what? China (or camels, or pigs in other parts of the world) unleash viruses like this every couple of decades. Many if not most are mild enough to simply shrug off. That won't always happen. If the approach that's implicitly being advocated here is "wait until we know it's the bubonic plague" (or the Hong Kong flu or whatever) until putting steps into place, then thanks so much, dummy. You, and the people like you in Wuhan are the reason this became a problem in the first place. When it comes to contagion, and exponential growth, those are avalanches that cannot be stopped if you wait until they get big before doing anything. Because by then, it's too late.

    Most rounds of Russian roulette end well (slightly more than 5 out of 6 if one factors in gravitational effects). The vast majority of drunk drivers arrive home safely. The reason we so strongly advise against playing at either of those sports is because the tail risk that comes from being wrong is devastating. (And note neither of those cases involve exponential cascades of distaster as happens with contagious diseases and the overall error bounds involved are much smaller.)

    Replies: @Jack D

    It’s an open question whether all the excess deaths in the coming months (e.g. loss of employment, increasing child/spouse abuse due to dysfunctional people being cooped up together) will be greater than the lives saved. And the truth is, we don’t know yet.

    I would wager that more lives will be saved than lost but this would be true any time we imposed such a stoppage (and this is the first time that we have) and just because lives are saved doesn’t mean its a good idea that is worth destroying our economy for. What has changed that justifies a lockdown vs all of the other epidemics in the last century?

    In a lockdown, industrial pollution goes down, auto accidents go down, flu deaths go down and so on. In NYC even murder went down. There are many beneficial health effects and yet we don’t keep the world on permanent lockdown nor have we ever even locked it down temporarily. What is different now?

    • Replies: @HA
    @Jack D

    "What has changed that justifies a lockdown vs all of the other epidemics in the last century?"

    Liberals are always telling us, given the historical record of migrations and replacements -- why worry about it? It's a part of life, and the way civilizations have always come and gone. What has changed in our society that justifies you anti-immigrant people from trying to put a stop to migration/displacement in this day and age?

    And there's the seed of your answer: The answer is SOCIETY has changed. (Or at least, it should change.) To the extent we have some way of stopping millions of deaths, and populations getting wiped out and/or displaced, that we didn't have before, that's the way we should go. Even if it means some economic dislocation and hardship and crops rotting in the field or whatever.

    In other words, Steve Sailer is being admirably consistent. His approach to the threat of infectious diseases is much the same as his approach to the dangers of immigration. It may well be that in the vast majority of outcomes, nothing catastrophic happens, but the downside risks are disastrous enough to avoid the whole business altogether, and even though in the past we were unable to do much about it, the fact that we have some way of grappling with it now means we should try it. I mean, the Singaporeans and the Israelis are. Whereas it's the #coronahoax people -- some of whom are 100% on Sailer's side when he's arguing about the dangers of population displacement -- who are they hypocrites. If you're willing to put up with some economic hardship over immigration restriction, then you should be able to deal with the costs/difficulties of effective epidemic controls. It might not matter much this time, if corona turns out to be less deadly than previously feared. But it's not the last time China (or some other bushmeat eaters or pork farmers with their manure lagoons) do this to us. Even if the "lie back and enjoy it approach" (similar to the ones liberals are advocating in the case of immigration) might be cheaper in the short run, it's a disastrous policy when the big picture is taken into account.

  220. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Muse


    They also wanted to avoid a public panic over masks. If they had recommended masks and none are available, there would have been pandemonium.

     

    I think this is at the heart of it. Here in HK we experienced (and to some extent are still experiencing) the pressure to try to find masks to buy when everybody suddenly realizes it's time to wear them every day. There wasn't any real violence here, but there were lots of unpleasant disputes in late January as people stormed anyplace with masks for sale, and then spent days lining up at shops hoping a new shipment would come in.

    People here are in fact still criticizing the HK government for not doing what Macau's government did, i.e. set up places where citizens could buy a limited but regular supply of masks to see them through the first days of the coronavirus crisis.

    I can't imagine what the same scenario would be like in the USA -- i.e. the whole population suddenly determined to get some masks, by whatever means necessary, and with none available.

    I sincerely hope this scenario doesn't play out in the USA at this point. Once social distancing is in place, the need for masks goes way down.

    But if the US government announces MASKS GOOD NOW, especially as people try to return to some semblance of normal life, they'd better be ready with ample supplies.

    I'm curious: are any of you in the USA trying to buy masks at this point, either N95 or surgical? Are they available anywhere?

    Replies: @SOL, @MB, @Jack D

    Once social distancing is in place, the need for masks goes way down.

    This is not entirely clear. Initially (not coincidentally when they were lying to us about the need for masks) they said that Wuhan Virus was not airborne but only carried on droplets that would quickly fall out. But the current thinking is that it may be airborne for longer than we think.

    Pretty much anytime you hear a doctor saying that only doctors need masks (see MBs link) you can assume that he is lying. Maybe he is lying to himself too – we call that “rationalizing”, but he’s still lying. The virus doesn’t care if you have an MD license or not. MDs are not the only ones who come in proximity with the infected.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Jack D

    Thanks for the added explanation, but that's not the point I was trying to make, which is much simpler. That is, once social distancing measures are imposed, people stay home more. When people stay home, they don't wear masks. Fewer masks overall therefore are needed.

    I'm speaking from experience here -- the Calvinists' strategic mask reserve took a big hit when Mrs Calvinist and I had to return to work at our offices in mid March. But we've been at home again for the past couple of weeks, and have used very few masks in that time. We still go out to shop, take walks, etc., but we don't need to wear our masks for prolonged periods, so we can use them for several days. Mask re-use is now SOP here. But when you need to wear one all day to work, plus the commute back and forth, re-use is not a pleasant or healthy prospect.

  221. HA says:
    @Eustace
    @Chrisnonymous


    This is a question it’s impossible to answer now since every country is taking measures to lock down. Even if death rates are ultimately low, there will always be the point that, well, if we hadn’t done anything it would have been different.
     
    It is a "heads I win, tails you lose" kind of situation. If the excess mortality turns out to be a nothingburger, as is rather likely, then the government will say that it was thanks to the lock-down.

    If the excess mortality turns out significant, the government will say that it took unprecedented lock-down measures to control it. They will even say that it is the fault of the doubters and the disobedient that lock-down failed to bring a good outcome.

    In 1857, the prophetess Nongqawuse told the pastoral Xhosa people to slaughter all their cattle so that the spirits of their ancestors would resurrect and throw the British out of South Africa. When the spirits failed to resurrect, she blamed the doubters and the disobedient (amagogotya) who had refused to kill their cattle. Unfortunately, the other 80% of the Xhosa died of famine.

    Replies: @HA

    “If the excess mortality turns out to be a nothingburger, as is rather likely, then the government will say that it was thanks to the lock-down.”

    And yet, the makers of Robitussin, and athlete’s foot cream, and pink-eye medication will all have a pretty good idea of what this lock-down did to infectious diseases overall — at least when you aggregate that data together. In other words, there are independent ways of analyzing the situation that will make any easy brush-offs such as you describe a bit more difficult. If you don’t trust the government’s stats, there are others that will be available to you.

    In any case, the do-nothing-until-mañana side is hardly free of that very same circular reasoning. You see it in those very same graphs being presented here a few comments upward from showing excess mortality, as in “see — no bumps in the graphs whatsoever! ergo, this was a hoax.” But I’m guessing you don’t really have a problem when the side you’re supporting engages in that kind of thing.

  222. HA says:
    @Jack D
    @HA


    It’s an open question whether all the excess deaths in the coming months (e.g. loss of employment, increasing child/spouse abuse due to dysfunctional people being cooped up together) will be greater than the lives saved. And the truth is, we don’t know yet.
     
    I would wager that more lives will be saved than lost but this would be true any time we imposed such a stoppage (and this is the first time that we have) and just because lives are saved doesn't mean its a good idea that is worth destroying our economy for. What has changed that justifies a lockdown vs all of the other epidemics in the last century?

    In a lockdown, industrial pollution goes down, auto accidents go down, flu deaths go down and so on. In NYC even murder went down. There are many beneficial health effects and yet we don't keep the world on permanent lockdown nor have we ever even locked it down temporarily. What is different now?

    Replies: @HA

    “What has changed that justifies a lockdown vs all of the other epidemics in the last century?”

    Liberals are always telling us, given the historical record of migrations and replacements — why worry about it? It’s a part of life, and the way civilizations have always come and gone. What has changed in our society that justifies you anti-immigrant people from trying to put a stop to migration/displacement in this day and age?

    And there’s the seed of your answer: The answer is SOCIETY has changed. (Or at least, it should change.) To the extent we have some way of stopping millions of deaths, and populations getting wiped out and/or displaced, that we didn’t have before, that’s the way we should go. Even if it means some economic dislocation and hardship and crops rotting in the field or whatever.

    In other words, Steve Sailer is being admirably consistent. His approach to the threat of infectious diseases is much the same as his approach to the dangers of immigration. It may well be that in the vast majority of outcomes, nothing catastrophic happens, but the downside risks are disastrous enough to avoid the whole business altogether, and even though in the past we were unable to do much about it, the fact that we have some way of grappling with it now means we should try it. I mean, the Singaporeans and the Israelis are. Whereas it’s the #coronahoax people — some of whom are 100% on Sailer’s side when he’s arguing about the dangers of population displacement — who are they hypocrites. If you’re willing to put up with some economic hardship over immigration restriction, then you should be able to deal with the costs/difficulties of effective epidemic controls. It might not matter much this time, if corona turns out to be less deadly than previously feared. But it’s not the last time China (or some other bushmeat eaters or pork farmers with their manure lagoons) do this to us. Even if the “lie back and enjoy it approach” (similar to the ones liberals are advocating in the case of immigration) might be cheaper in the short run, it’s a disastrous policy when the big picture is taken into account.

  223. @Jack D
    @Jonathan Mason

    This is just Trump, being Trump, putting a positive spin on things. If you are a real estate developer and your building is near a noisy highway, it is "close to transportation". Why does the media insist on taking him literally as if every word should be carved in stone and parsed like a pronouncement of the Oracle? He's just riffing. Maybe it is because they are used to worshiping their leaders and their sharply creased pants as gods because they have none other.

    Replies: @Charon, @Jonathan Mason, @res, @MEH 0910

    This is just Trump, being Trump, putting a positive spin on things. If you are a real estate developer and your building is near a noisy highway, it is “close to transportation”.

    Lionel Hutz explains “The Truth”

  224. @Dissident
    @Mr McKenna


    Easy to see why various factors affect your performance once infected but how does (e.g.) cancer treatment affect your likelihood of getting infected in the first place?
     
    Re-read the beginning of the quoted-text you posted.
    “If you are immunocompromised, such as receiving cancer treatment or recently treated or even perhaps cancer survivor,

    I assume you know what immunocompromised means.

    Replies: @Mr McKenna

    Sigh. If you really care, try reading the part about distinguishing between “performance once infected” and “likelihood of getting infected” — everyone agrees that the first is affected by compromise. The question at hand is how the second might be, since it’s asserted (without evidence) that it is, but only in certain cases. I’ll leave you to this because I have no particular desire to insult you.

    • Replies: @Dissident
    @Mr McKenna

    I had simply taken it as a given that compromised immunity affects not only an individual's response once infected with a pathogen but also increases the likelihood that, once exposed, the individual will become infected. As "Redman" wrote in his reply to your comment, immunocompromised people are almost always at greater risk of both getting and fighting off infections.

    I had thought this was well-established but perhaps I am revealing ignorance on my part. I will also allow for the possibility that you may be referencing some detail or nuance that I have overlooked.

    At any rate, I'm sorry if you took my reply as an insult. I did not intend it as such.

  225. @Jack D
    @The Last Real Calvinist


    Once social distancing is in place, the need for masks goes way down.
     
    This is not entirely clear. Initially (not coincidentally when they were lying to us about the need for masks) they said that Wuhan Virus was not airborne but only carried on droplets that would quickly fall out. But the current thinking is that it may be airborne for longer than we think.

    Pretty much anytime you hear a doctor saying that only doctors need masks (see MBs link) you can assume that he is lying. Maybe he is lying to himself too - we call that "rationalizing", but he's still lying. The virus doesn't care if you have an MD license or not. MDs are not the only ones who come in proximity with the infected.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Thanks for the added explanation, but that’s not the point I was trying to make, which is much simpler. That is, once social distancing measures are imposed, people stay home more. When people stay home, they don’t wear masks. Fewer masks overall therefore are needed.

    I’m speaking from experience here — the Calvinists’ strategic mask reserve took a big hit when Mrs Calvinist and I had to return to work at our offices in mid March. But we’ve been at home again for the past couple of weeks, and have used very few masks in that time. We still go out to shop, take walks, etc., but we don’t need to wear our masks for prolonged periods, so we can use them for several days. Mask re-use is now SOP here. But when you need to wear one all day to work, plus the commute back and forth, re-use is not a pleasant or healthy prospect.

  226. @Buzz Mohawk
    @TomSchmidt

    Well, I have read that she was 15 at the time, so that would be inappropriate. I find that photo and many others from the 1956 Hungarian Uprising fascinating. I've learned something about this history from my wife.

    BTW the video Steve posted is excellent, and the girl in it did a good job.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    Yes, it had a good spokeswoman.

    One of my female Hungarian ancestors was married at 15. Seems too young today, but in a collapsed neo-agricultural society, it will seem normal.

    I hope it never seems normal again.

  227. Anonymous[399] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jack D
    @candid_observer

    We’re not really good at imagining the future. How many futuristic depictions of the twenty first century showed people walking around with cellphones?


    https://d14e8oeg5e788p.cloudfront.net/content/54555/19f5f7db3105e59424b25a01a53c715f.jpg

    In 2001: A Space Odyssey (made in 1968), the guys Facetime on their iPads:

    http://www.geekologie.com/2011/08/24/ipads-in-space-odyssey.jpg

    I would say that Kubrick came pretty damn close.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anonymous

    He probably got that from Arthur C. Clarke. There’s a video on YouTube of Clarke on TV in the 1960s predicting a lot of this stuff.

  228. @Mr McKenna
    @Dissident

    Sigh. If you really care, try reading the part about distinguishing between "performance once infected" and "likelihood of getting infected" -- everyone agrees that the first is affected by compromise. The question at hand is how the second might be, since it's asserted (without evidence) that it is, but only in certain cases. I'll leave you to this because I have no particular desire to insult you.

    Replies: @Dissident

    I had simply taken it as a given that compromised immunity affects not only an individual’s response once infected with a pathogen but also increases the likelihood that, once exposed, the individual will become infected. As “Redman” wrote in his reply to your comment, immunocompromised people are almost always at greater risk of both getting and fighting off infections.

    I had thought this was well-established but perhaps I am revealing ignorance on my part. I will also allow for the possibility that you may be referencing some detail or nuance that I have overlooked.

    At any rate, I’m sorry if you took my reply as an insult. I did not intend it as such.

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