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Looks Like US Is Over Second Coronavirus Hump
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Here are the New York Times’ graphs of the seven days moving average of new coronavirus cases and deaths. Because the lines represent the average of the last 7 days, they lag about 3.5 days behind the latest day.

The official case count seven day trailing average plateaued from about July 18-25 and has been falling since. Deaths kept rising until a few days ago, but the last few days have been promising.

If this really was a peak for deaths, it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment. As you’ll recall, it was only at the very end of March that a few brave NYC emergency room doctors began to speak out against the ventilator obsession of the medical community and political class in favor of first trying to put patients on their stomachs. By late April, ER doctors were advising patients to monitor their own blood oxygen percent and come in for more oxygen as soon as it began to fall rather than until they had breathing problems, by which point much of the damage was already done.

But keep in mind that the USA is a continent-wide place, not a specific region like many European countries. Place that have avoided being hit hard yet are still at risk of getting whomped shortly.

A major question is how hard will be second waves? Madrid, which was hit hard in the early spring, appears to be rising again.

Consider New York City, which has had few cases or deaths in recent weeks, but then NYC tends to empty out in August even in non-plague years. Can it reopen after Labor Day like it normally does? NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?

Another measure I like to track is Wikipedia’s list of “notable” individuals who have died of the virus because it’s easy to track ages and career trajectories. As I’ve been pointing out for several months, judging by this list, not that many people in their primes have died of CV in the U.S.. Back on July 5, Broadway character Nick Cordero died at age 41 after a terrible ordeal. Since then, 9 notable personages have died in the U.S., most famously 74-year-old Herman Cain. On the other hand, two of the nine deaths were over 100 years of age.

On the other hand, it’s still unclear how bad the long-term effects of CV will be. For example, the popular Twitter personality, Sciencing_Bi, a Hopi Indian born in Alabama who is a professor of queerness or whatever at Arizona State, came down with CV months ago, suffered from it in the Long Haul, and recently died of it.

But then somebody finally noticed that Hopi Indians live in the canyons near the Grand Canyon, not in Alabama which has no canyons. It turned out that this Hopi science Twitter account which would pile on in support of MeToo activist BethAnn McLaughlin was a concoction of McLaughlin.

 
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  1. Crap, I thought Sciencing_Bi was finally a Good Indian!

    • LOL: Almost Missouri
    • Replies: @Change that Matters
    @Redneck farmer

    Woman says she was behind hoax @Sciencing_Bi Twitter account that claimed to be ASU professor with COVID-19.


    The woman many believed had created a fake persona of an Arizona State University professor on Twitter admitted on Tuesday that she created the social media account.

    BethAnn McLaughlin told the New York Times, through a lawyer, that she was behind the @Sciencing_Bi Twitter account.
     
    , @Lot
    @Redneck farmer

    I don’t get it, she’s not a real BIPOC Indian? She looks just like all the Indians in academia and publishing, just needs a turquoise necklace.

    BethAnn Cancelling-Buffalo McLaughlin:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/BethAnn_McLaughlin_2018_Disobedience_Awards_at_the_MIT_Media_Lab.jpg/599px-BethAnn_McLaughlin_2018_Disobedience_Awards_at_the_MIT_Media_Lab.jpg

    , @Bard of Bumperstickers
    @Redneck farmer

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ic0XaAz26Jg

  2. High odds severe Covid-19 can lead to kidney injury or failure, medical studies reveal
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/severe-covid-19-can-lead-to-kidney-failure-medical-studies-reveal.html

    “At Mount Sinai 46% of patients that were admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic had some form of acute kidney injury; of those, 17% required urgent dialysis.”

    “Surprisingly, 82% of patients that got an acute kidney injury had no history of kidney issues; 18% did. More than a third of patients that survived did not recover the same kidney function they had before contracting the virus.”

    • Agree: Kyle
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    Or, in other words, being an old person confined to a hospital bed and hooked up to a ventilator for three weeks can lead to kidney problems.

    , @Dacian Julien Soros
    @utu

    With the exception of two weeks dedicated to systemic racism, all the top medical journals and even the more technical ones (Nature, for example), have dedicated most of their space for covid-related "studies". On the other side, governments have provided research money to any imbecile who can string together a phrase that includes covid. Even the Romanian government pays for "research" on the boomer flu.

    Ophthalmologists must have discovered eye changes following covid. Rheumatologists have elucidated covid-related joint pains. Medical physicists found the right dose of radiation for covid-related CT scan. Three boy scouts printed masks on their 3D printer, and shoved them masks up their behinds as it was never authorized for clinical use. BMJ is droning on about how blacks are coughing two more days when they get covid, as if we can change our race to a more covid-resistant one. Reich probably found the bn chromosome that really matters for covid's ability to impair smell. George Church already implanted a piece of that chromosome in his genitals, to lower the problems he got from chronic soap allergies. AK is interested in how much that gene changes taste. Dipak Das tells everyone to drink more wine, pandemic or no pandemic.

    Everyone paid their mortgages, while their grad students paid their rents. Thermo Fisher made a killing.

    Everything was discovered, except a decent test, a decent antiseptic for surfaces, a decent high-volume filter for air, and a decent measurement of covid survival on air / on surfaces / in foods and water. I never expected a treatment or a vaccine, given the SARS experience, but at least these seemed important and perfectly feasible.

    We are nearing the end of the pandemic across the world. So now the "scientists" have little to report on new treatment strategies. Treat what, when almost all new cases are mild or asymptomatic? You can't measure "days to remission", when the patients come to the doctor without symptoms.

    And so, the window is closing fast on new cases in the civilized world. There won't be any cases in the placebo arm for any treatment or vaccine. I doubt anyone will approve a vaccine trialed in India or some subSaharan country that is still lagging behind in new severe cases. So it's over.

    And so, the pivot is now towards sequelae. You will hear about covid accelerating Alzheimer, AIDS, verrucae, and blenorrhagia. It will always be worsening, because otherwise the "experts" won't be funded as much. Kidneys are just the beginning.

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @vhrm, @utu

    , @Kyle
    @utu


    “At Mount Sinai 46% of patients that were admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic had some form of acute kidney injury; of those, 17% required urgent dialysis.”


    “Surprisingly, 82% of patients that got an acute kidney injury had no history of kidney issues; 18% did. More than a third of patients that survived did not recover the same kidney function they had before contracting the virus.”
     

    Chronic kidney damage, not acute kidney damage. Acute kidney damage would imply that they recovered function. So people suffering chronic sars-cov-2 infections, long haulers in layman’s terms, are suffering from permanent kidney damage. With 5 deaths in Vietnam, I have to wonder if tens of millions of Americans are undiagnosed diabetics.
  3. I recently read something, now deep-memory-holed, that much of the summer uptick might be attributable to catching up on earlier death records to reflect earlier COVID deaths.

    This source suggests “youth going clubbing” is the culprit.

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/global-coronavirus-uptick-sparked-by-youth-going-clubbing-visiting-beaches-report

    I guess yewts going BLM and SJW clubbing have some magical spell that shields them.

  4. Big test will be winter. We haven’t seen what it’s like in the depths of a Northern Hemisphere winter yet. Melbourne is the closest big city to have a ‘real’ winter (It’s famous for it’s rain and temps can get low but maybe comparable to a bad Med winter) during the pandemic, other than Wuhan itself. And it saw a very fast increase in cases but it’s unclear yet how serious they were, deaths will lag.

    One advantage is seasonal flu seems to have been removed as a factor. In Aus there is almost no seasonal flu around. Maybe if govs were really ambitious this could be a chance to kill it off too.

  5. @Redneck farmer
    Crap, I thought Sciencing_Bi was finally a Good Indian!

    Replies: @Change that Matters, @Lot, @Bard of Bumperstickers

    Woman says she was behind hoax @Sciencing_Bi Twitter account that claimed to be ASU professor with COVID-19.

    The woman many believed had created a fake persona of an Arizona State University professor on Twitter admitted on Tuesday that she created the social media account.

    BethAnn McLaughlin told the New York Times, through a lawyer, that she was behind the @Sciencing_Bi Twitter account.

  6. anonymous[521] • Disclaimer says:

    I think it’s wishful thinking caused by the fear that if the virus doesn’t recede then Trump won’t be re-elected. The country isn’t serious about curbing the spread and most states haven’t yet seen a steep rise in cases. There’s no reason to think the virus just went away and won’t surge in those states. I think it’s time to consider a 2-month second national lockdown to bring the virus under control at least for the sake of normal voting in November. If the vote is blemished by large scale complaints of irregularities and Trump is re-elected I fear there will be nationwide violent unrest. The long term consequences of that could be continuous violent clashes for years and destabilizing secession movements.

    • Replies: @gabriel alberton
    @anonymous


    I think it’s wishful thinking caused by the fear that if the virus doesn’t recede then Trump won’t be re-elected.
     
    You think the reports that cases are now decreasing in the states they had just surged is wishful thinking? Wishful thinking by whom? Sailer? The CDC? What do you mean?

    most states haven’t yet seen a steep rise in cases.
     
    The most populous states have already been there, done that. Mention one which didn't.

    If the vote is blemished by large scale complaints of irregularities and Trump is re-elected I fear there will be nationwide violent unrest.
     
    And? I doubt those two things will both happen. They are roughly mutually exclusive. Or do you think Biden and the Democrats will claim there was electoral fraud? I thought that was a right-wing fantasy. Did I think wrong? How would a fraud that favors the Republicans take place? The only thing that the Democrats would complain about that could be taken as an irregularity would be Trump postponing the election, or declaring they aren't going to be held at all (Trump then promptly livestreaming him dancing with a giant globe). I very much doubt he'll actually do that, even if he really wants to. Note that winning through the electoral college while losing the popular vote (again) is not an irregularity -- it's part of the rules.
    , @peterike
    @anonymous

    Nicely done. That's an almost perfect imitation of what a concern troll bot would sound like.

    , @Hibernian
    @anonymous

    You're back, Tiny.

  7. Consider New York City, which has had few cases or deaths in recent weeks, but then NYC tends to empty out in August even in non-plague years

    Even ‘emptied-out-in-August’ NYC is still by far the most densely packed place in America.

  8. Ah, the mystical, magical, corona virus. A mish-mash of a SARS Flu virus and a cold type Corona Virus. Probably a biochemical impossibility, but whatever.

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/08/no_author/no-one-has-died-from-the-coronavirus-2/

    Some diversity of opinion there.

    Texas Official deaths (from Texas Department of State Health Services):

    2018 SARS 11,917
    2019 SARS 10,020
    2020 Coronavirus 3,112 through 7-20-2020

    And the death numbers are so bogus they mean exactly nothing. I could site a hundred articles, but the facts don’t matter.

    To admit that CoronaFraud is a lie is to admit that you have been a moron. And nobody is going to do that. So double down, on doubling down, on doubling down, until our country is entirely destroyed.

    Our world is saturated with viruses, including Corona Viruses. You can die of literally anything and they could find Corona viruses present. Of course, they don’t have to test for it, won’t autopsy the bodies, and the MDs signing off on the Death Certificates get paid if they label the death Covid-19, not to mention that 2-3 weeks after people die, with the body cremated or buried, they are going back and changing cause of death to Covid-19.

    Is there anything, anything at all, that can get you to let go of the Lies, stop drinking the kool-aid?

    1. When a saturation Media event is going on, it is a lie.
    2. When multiple Officials are repeatedly caught falsifying evidence, it is a conspiracy to commit Fraud on an unprecedented level.
    3. When a lengthy series of Unconstitutional (and indeed, War Crimes level) events go on , completely in accordance with the Medical Fraud, it is war on the American people.
    4. When a “disease” only kills sick old people, it is bogus on the face of it. A “disease” that only kills sick old people? Seriously? Diseases kill sick old people, like TB, Lung Cancer, Flu, but one disease killing them, and only them? Seriously?

    This is now so far beyond insanity that worlds fail me.

    • Replies: @Achilles Wannabe
    @theMann

    This is now so far beyond insanity that words fail me.

    Oh I wish that were true. But listen. If you breathe on me without a mask, I will blow your libertarian head off. Or actually I won’t because I am white and whites don’t do things like that. But perhaps we should.

  9. And is related news:

    Gold $2021.00
    Silver $26.18

    Rocketing upwards. Dollar collapse in play. CoronaFraud, timed at Spring Planting, deliberately did as much damage to food production as possible. Winter food prices, severe increases. Famine by Spring 2021, guaranteed.

    Massive increases in malnutrition related illnesses, guaranteed. All such illnesses labeled “next wave” Corona, 100% certain. Most of you STILL drinking the kool-aid on the lies….ditto.

    • Replies: @Redman
    @theMann

    And don’t leave out the suicides. There are going to be an insane number of “excess suicides” (if that term even exists) as a result of these lock downs. Guaranteed.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @HA

  10. Remember when the goal was to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the hospitals ? The hospitals have been empty here for months, and the number of deaths in June and July are below the total deaths in 2019. Yet the media continue to push the panic narrative.

    The curve was flattened months ago , yet the panic and lockdowns continue. Here in NJ the churches are still closed , while the casinos are open. The teachers are trying to keep the schools closed. Yet more students died of the flu this year than COVID.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    I agree. The lockdowns did little to stop the spread in New Jersey. The Epidemic peaked 4 weeks after they imposed the lockdown. The schools were shutdown March 15, yet cases soared in the first week in April and peaked on April 21. The lockdown was completely ineffective , since most of the deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Young people are basically immune to CV. NYC and NJ appeared to reach heard immunity back in May. Most people who are exposed to CV never develop symptoms and can fight CV without creating antibodies. We need to end the lockdowns while we continue to encourage people to wash their hands and get sun exposure to increase your vit D levels. Eat healthy and get adequate sleep to keep your immune strong.

  11. The death count is a crock. They’re counting motorcycle accidents. Just look at the cdc`s mortality data. The USA has recorded an above average week since May.

  12. If this really was a peak for deaths, it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment.

    There is also a no-zero percent probability that the current virus is milder than the initial strains, contributing to the lower CFR. And it appears the second wave has been much more concentrated among the younger, healthier population, because the high risk population learned the proper lessons (self isolate as much as possible, wash hands, disinfect, etc.) from the first wave.

    Anecdote: good friend of mine contracted it recently (this Summer); he’s middle-aged and healthy (no comorbidities). Said symptoms lasted ~6 days; had a low grade fever, and a bit of a dry cough, plus the loss of taste/smell. Then he was over it and back to working out. Sounds almost exactly how a cold runs through me (5-7 days, loss of taste/smell, but more of a wet cough/congestion).

    I am increasingly just-so about coronavirus/COVID19. I’ll do my part where necessary (wear mask indoors, distance from those who are high risk like my elderly mother), until it fades into the general disease burden background, but this thing is now in the wild, and here to stay. And as you note, we will continue to improve treatment/prophylaxis.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @Captain Tripps

    “ Sounds almost exactly how a cold runs through me (5-7 days, loss of taste/smell, but more of a wet cough/congestion).”

    Coronaviruses cause about a sixth of common colds, so we’ve all had them many times.

    I’ve never had a loss of taste or smell before.

    Replies: @Elsewhere, @peterike

  13. Covid causes shortage of cheap immigrant labor causes rising food prices causing the next level of immigrant labor to move back to Mexico.

    “I left the United States to be able to afford groceries,” said Valadez, who brought his family to stay with his mother-in-law in Mexico, although he maintains his California home. “Food prices are what’s keeping us here.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/for-the-unemployed-rising-grocery-prices-stretch-budgets-even-more/ar-BB17z6H8

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @George

    George, we give people cash to stay home and free food and require nothing in return. What would be the incentive to take a job in agriculture?

  14. OT:

    Jorge Ramos Wants Latina President: Black Americans ‘Already Had One’

    https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2020/08/04/jorge-ramos-wants-latina-president-black-americans-already-had-one/

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    What about Asians? What are we, chopped liver?

    Oh, I forgot, I'm not Asian. Maybe I'm chopped liver.

  15. Coronavirus again? I’m glad to see your amnesia wasn’t permanent. Hopefully you’ve fully recovered.

  16. An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor, the US may have unintentionally settled into a nearly optimal strategy: older and more vulnerable people are sequestered, while younger and healthier people mingle in the streets passing around germs, surviving, and so creating herd immunity.

    It’s just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months, and b) not promoting the big lie that there is a war on black people.

    • Disagree: Corvinus
    • Replies: @HammerJack
    @Almost Missouri

    From the WSJ: Efforts to counteract racism by prioritizing blacks and hispanics for the new vaccine are complicated by the fact that blacks and hispanics refuse to co-operate. Also there's no vaccine, but the first problem is more serious.


    Covid-19 Vaccine Trials Have a Problem: Minority Groups Don’t Trust Them


    Researchers and companies developing Covid-19 vaccines are taking new steps to tackle a longtime challenge: People who need the vaccines most urgently, including Blacks and Latinos, are least likely to participate in clinical trials to determine whether they work safely.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-trials-have-a-problem-minority-groups-dont-trust-them-11596619802
     

    , @AKAHorace
    @Almost Missouri



    It’s just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last se


    Have you seen any study on if the virus was spread by the BLM riots/demonstrations ? Everything that I have read in the media says that this did not happen and/or was minimal and that opening up states was what did the damage. I was skeptical but rates seem to have increased more in inland states which were opening up compared to New York where there seems to have been a lot of demonstrations/riots.

    Is this because the BLM stuff tended to be outdoors, BLMs wore masks and the amount of contact was small compared to the far more frequent everyday activities that occurred when states opened up ? Or were stats minimized and massaged ?

    Replies: @Kaz

    , @AnotherDad
    @Almost Missouri


    ... b) not promoting the big lie that there is a war on black people.
     
    The big lie that whites--i.e. white gentiles--are responsible for the poor performance of blacks across a broad range of socio-economic measures is the core justification for minoritarianism in the United States and ergo on out into the world.

    It can not be given up.

    , @Kronos
    @Almost Missouri

    Any guesses if COVID-19 will cause for damage in blue states, red states, or even battleground states this November?

    , @Anon
    @Almost Missouri

    Once again the Americans just make it up and try everything until we find what works. Greatest generation.

  17. The lockdown fear will be pushed until the election. Dems, media, the Usual Suspects see political advantage in scaring people and ruining the economy.

    • Agree: botazefa
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @RichardTaylor

    Richard, Bingo. With only days before NYS schools have to submit their re-opening plans, Cuomo hits them with questions about Covid testing. Pulled that completely out of his ass and now back to square one. See how easy it is to keep this going.

  18. Let’s hope Billy Gates makes a vaccine.

    How else will we survive a deadly disease with a 99% survival rate?

  19. I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Buffalo Joe

    Survival rate from what? Corona-Chan, BLM, Cancel Culture, Trump v. Biden? Talk about co-morbidities.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Buffalo Joe

    99.9995% of BULLSHIT-2020 patients in the US survive.

    Sweden did no lockdowns, no facediapers, no DSM distancing, and their survival rate is the same as the US.

    Hoax, A to Z.

    Sailer, characteristically skeptical of the fakestream media, fell for this hoax hook, l, s, r, r, boat. Imbecile.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    , @Redneck farmer
    @Buffalo Joe

    OT: You've got a great classical station where you're at Joe. Wish we had one like it in NE Ohio!

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @kaganovitch

    , @another fred
    @Buffalo Joe

    The cases statistics are so clouded that any number given is going to be suspect. The one thing we know is that deaths are extremely low for the young and very high for the elderly. In spite of the age factor there still seems to be some genetic susceptibility involved, especially for those younger than 65 or 75.

    I have no doubt that this is a very serious disease for those who are susceptible, but it is obvious that susceptibility varies widely.

    I really wish more authorities would publish statistics at least as detailed as Cook County, IL did a couple of months ago (preferably more), but there seems to be a reluctance to do so. The way they are treating information makes one feel a bit like a mushroom, i.e. being fed shit in the dark.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @prosa123, @Kyle

    , @Anon
    @Buffalo Joe

    A rather callous acquaintance of mine says “much hinges on your social and medical influence.”

    I’d say, if your older, much hinges on your support network. The parents of a good friend are 89 (dad) and 85 (mom), and live alone with domestic help. In reasonably good health, they got coronavirus a month or so ago. The dad decided no way was he going to a hospital, and told the grown children so.

    He got it bad, with pneumonia. The wife didn’t get pneumonia. He was treated at home, monitored by a daughter, with HCQ (don’t know all the details). They both recovered and are doing well. The family says the oxygen concentrator, bought online and shipped to their small town, was key.

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @Buffalo Joe


    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?
     
    You just have to divide the number of infections by the number of deaths caused by those infections to get the answer. That should be pretty straightforward.

    The number of infections could be determined by doing regular testing on randomized samples of the population. The deaths caused by the virus could be determined by doing a pathology review on a random sample of people who died after testing positive in order to determine whether it was the virus or something else that was the cause of death. (Or, more sophisticated, the percentage by which the virus increased mortality in the sample).

    But instead, it's an endless data dump of useless numbers. The alleged number of "cases" is just who tested positive and is totally dependent on how many tests are given and the non-random selection of who gets tested. It's a complete joke. The "deaths" number is equally useless as it's just people who died "with," and not necessarily "because of" the virus.

    I don't know where all the smart people have gone that should be on these issues. But the media and public health bureaucracy are just running wild with nonsense numbers. It's a truly amazing mass delusion.

    Replies: @ES

    , @botazefa
    @Buffalo Joe


    what is the survivability rate in the USA?
     
    You're alive. Coronavirus is hella contagious. What more data does one need?
  20. @Almost Missouri
    An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor, the US may have unintentionally settled into a nearly optimal strategy: older and more vulnerable people are sequestered, while younger and healthier people mingle in the streets passing around germs, surviving, and so creating herd immunity.

    It's just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months, and b) not promoting the big lie that there is a war on black people.

    Replies: @HammerJack, @AKAHorace, @AnotherDad, @Kronos, @Anon

    From the WSJ: Efforts to counteract racism by prioritizing blacks and hispanics for the new vaccine are complicated by the fact that blacks and hispanics refuse to co-operate. Also there’s no vaccine, but the first problem is more serious.

    Covid-19 Vaccine Trials Have a Problem: Minority Groups Don’t Trust Them

    Researchers and companies developing Covid-19 vaccines are taking new steps to tackle a longtime challenge: People who need the vaccines most urgently, including Blacks and Latinos, are least likely to participate in clinical trials to determine whether they work safely.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-trials-have-a-problem-minority-groups-dont-trust-them-11596619802

  21. I’m sure we can allow blm contacts. This virus mostly dislikes stale pale males – COVID-19, not Covid-1819. It is a Woke Contemporary Virus.

    • LOL: vhrm
  22. The Sturgis motorcycle rally kicks off this Friday in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Local officials are expecting attendance to be down for normal years, but still expect 250,000 people to attend. The average person in attendance in a normal year is a man in his late 40s to early 50s in less than optimal health. While riding itself is a somewhat solitary activity, bikers pack together on town streets, beer tents and at concerts. Most of the virus spread this summer seems to have been in younger people who are out enjoying themselves as much like a normal summer as they can. If there isn’t a significant increase in hospitalizations and deaths from Sturgis, I would take that as a strong sign the virus has weakened.

  23. • Replies: @HA
    @Bard of Bumperstickers

    "Head of CDC Admits Lockdown Killing Way More Americans Than Covid"

    That's how it's supposed to work. The better the lockdown is, the lower the number of Covid deaths. In fact, the ideal number of post-lockdown Covid deaths would be zero, in which case most ANYTHING that kills people, be it peanut allergies or bathtubs, would be killing more. Is that really something that we should be outraged over? Why is that so difficult for people to understand?

    This is about as dumb as claiming the hospitals are empty without noting that it is the cardio-pulmonary wing (or wherever they treat cytokine storms and organ failure) where the glut is happening. I mean, yeah, if you were planning on getting your diseased kidneys or liver operated on, all that has likely been postponed, especially once all the masks and gauze and gloves have been commandeered by that cardio-pulmonary wing, which means large stretches of the hospital are indeed empty, but there's nothing suspicious about that either.

    Again, the relevant comparison is how many deaths the lockdown has caused vs. the number it has saved. I guarantee you the CDC is still claiming the number of dead we would have seen in the absence of any lockdown would have been far greater than the number the lockdown has killed.

    This magic lockdown that the corona-truthers would have us believe is responsible for all the excess deaths we're seeing -- and yet it results in even more deaths once it is lifted -- is about as believable as that magic/tragic dirt that is supposedly the key to solving racism. If you want a more believable conspiracy theory, maybe go back to pretending that alien lizard people built Stonehenge.

    Replies: @Peterike

  24. The google doodle is diapered up today: each letter is sporting its own face diaper.

    Face diapers: disgusting, disease-infested objects, especially after baking in the sun hanging from your rearview mirror like an empty ball sac, full of marinated fermenting bacteria and moisture.

    The Democratic Party sociopaths laugh and have an orgasm every time they see you ignorant cowards in a face diaper. Any man in a face diaper has either no balls or no brains: you are cowards and/or imbeciles.

    Get Out Live Life!

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    One of the local universities is about to commence Fall semester with in-person classes.

    The number of college age men walking around outside in the sun by themselves with masks is unbelievable.

    If they really wanted to do the right thing they'd just pack up and save mom and dad four or five years of tuition.

  25. This will not put a stop to the MSM’s hysterical propagandizing, lockdowns, mask mandates, useless obsessive compulsive testing, manipulation of statistics to justify it all etc.
    The second wave will be created using smoke and mirrors and will come into it’s own when flu season hits. The door has now been opened for flu season, which everyone previously accepted as “that’s just life.” Deal with it.
    Too much psychological damage has been done to the neurotic, hypochondriacal, weak willed, weak minded, American populous… And that was all part of the plan!

  26. @Buffalo Joe
    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Redneck farmer, @another fred, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @botazefa

    Survival rate from what? Corona-Chan, BLM, Cancel Culture, Trump v. Biden? Talk about co-morbidities.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @The Alarmist

    Alarmist, you too funny. The chance of surviving an Air BnB party in LA. Or attending a block party in Chicago.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

  27. @Buffalo Joe
    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Redneck farmer, @another fred, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @botazefa

    99.9995% of BULLSHIT-2020 patients in the US survive.

    Sweden did no lockdowns, no facediapers, no DSM distancing, and their survival rate is the same as the US.

    Hoax, A to Z.

    Sailer, characteristically skeptical of the fakestream media, fell for this hoax hook, l, s, r, r, boat. Imbecile.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    COVID-1984

    re: Alabama/Nashville Koyaanisqatsi, Stolen e-Valor Edition:

    Vaccines don't cause autism. But Big Ed now hires from it. Back East we never had to tweet our sickest burns

  28. “If this really was a peak for deaths, it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment.”

    No. This year’s flu peaked in April, just like every other flu season. You and many others simply fell for a hoax.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen


    This year’s flu peaked in April, just like every other flu season. You and many others simply fell for a hoax.
     
    right... just like every other flu season...

    ... peak flu activity in the United States by month for the 1982-1983 through 2017-2018 flu seasons. The “peak month of flu activity” is the month with the highest percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza virus infection during that influenza season. During this 36-year period, flu activity most often peaked in February (15 seasons), followed by December (7 seasons), January (6 seasons) and March (6 seasons).
     
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

    April was the peak in 0 of those 36 years.
  29. NY Times also has an excellent article on the virus and the bodies response to it:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/health/coronavirus-immune-system.html

    A very good side effect of the virus has been the advancement of medical science. Heck, just the understanding of individuals that there are supplements like vitamin D3 and NAC which boost your immune system, will save many lives going forward.

  30. Since a vaccine is largely illusory, the only real exit strategy is herd immunity (or the fact the all epidemics just peter out eventually even if no one is really knows why). Therefore, ideally we want high case rates but with low death rates: most everyone gets infected, recovers, is inoculated and we move on. Astonishingly, in spite of the incompetence and rancor at every level, this seems to be more or less happening. We now have a lot of cases, but relatively few deaths. Of course, the case counts are extremely artifacted by various testing regimes, so the case numbers are absurdly unreliable. But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before.

    And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result without multi-trillion dollar, riot-spawning, famineinducing, nation-shaking lockdowns. As even the pro-authoritarian NYT‘s figures show, all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June. What are any of them still doing in lockdown? Good question. Apparently their authorities just like it that way. If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy, they would not be locking down during warmer months, and probably not be locking down at all. Social distance, masks, whatever: sure. Mass house arrest: insanity … or malign conspiracy.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor..."

    That's rich.

    "And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result..."

    Probably not.

    "all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience"

    Not particularly.

    "thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months"

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244685352.html


    County and state leaders are beginning to crack down on gatherings at restaurants, as officials express frustration that many young people aren’t complying with social distancing recommendations and mask requirements — especially when alcohol is involved.
     
    "If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy..."

    They are using science, you just do not prefer how they are applying the results.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069301

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/19/880912184/younger-adults-are-increasingly-testing-positive-for-coronavirus

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Mr. Anon, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Old Prude, @fredtard

    , @Polynikes
    @Almost Missouri

    The prevention of the spread among young healthy people this summer will likely be the largest contributing factor to any surge in the fall.

    It’s also looking like countries that haven’t politicized and use the “trump pills” are having lower mortality rates. The continued politicization off that treatment, even by our very own Dr. Fraudci, will likely be the largest contributing factor to any excess death in a second wave. Of course, this assumption rests on no Dem governors pulling a Cuomo and intentionally or negligently killing of their elderly.

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @Almost Missouri

    It is clear from the correlation of obesity and diabetes with severity and the non-correlation of other lung diseases like COPD and asthma, that this is a disease that is basically affecting those with poor metabolic status (always, of course, there are exceptions). I suspect this is part of the reason Sweden has done well in the death department--better underlying metabolic health.

    As I started saying a few months ago, we ought to be focused on how to prevent the disease from becoming severe rather than trying to stop it from spreading.

    Sure, there are possible treatments, like dexamethosone, maybe budesonide, and there are things you can add, like Vitamin D and zinc, but as N.N.Taleb points out, anti-fragility is achieved better by taking things away--in this case, your Twinkies and Big Gulp.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SBakerMD/status/1291002450808365057

    Dr. Shawn Baker is correct. We are now 6 months into COVID. Six months is long enough to make serious changes in your metabolic status. Plus, the fact that people are stuck at home and poor makes this a great time for people to try extended fasting regimines.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1288103894153695232

    In general, we should be doing this...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1287369827284217856

    In Japan, they keep telling people to avoid "the three Cs"--Closed spaces, Crowded spaces, and Close contact. All well and good, but avoiding the "the three Ss" is just as important--Sugar, Seed oils, and Sedentariness.

    If everyone in the USA had been avoiding the three Ss for the last 6 months, I'd wager we would have a different picture of health, a lower death rate, and better preparation for the next pandemic virus.

    Replies: @Anon, @Redman

    , @Buddy Stevenson
    @Almost Missouri

    How can there be herd immunity when antibodies for this coronavirus (and others) only last a few months?

    Replies: @dfordoom, @BB753, @Almost Missouri

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Almost Missouri

    "But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before."

    Case counts are up because facediaper use is up. People load up their diapers with bacteria and virums and touch their faces much more than normal whilst bediapered. As Americans diaper up, case counts soar xponentially.

    Bottom line: face diapers increase disease and must be banned with hefty fines and imprisonment.

    Replies: @jon, @dfordoom

    , @Alexander Turok
    @Almost Missouri


    all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June
     
    I'm just like an NBA star. Sometimes I throw the ball through the hoop, sometimes I miss.

    Replies: @gabriel alberton

  31. Anonymous[334] • Disclaimer says:

    Two… more…. weeks…

    *coof*

  32. Man that linked article is insane. I have had this feeling that you cannot take young women’s accounts of COVID long haul symptoms on the internet at face value but that story truly takes the cake. In general, I would say that post viral inflammatory symptoms are not unheard of for other infections, and surely not surprising that they’d happen occasionally for COVID. But on the other hand the fractions I’ve seen quoted of people become “long haulers” are implausible, anywhere from 10-70%. In children true postviral auto inflammatory sequelae seems like it’s more on the order of 1 in 1000 or maybe less. It could be higher in adults but probably not 100 times higher. Also, a lot of the symptoms they claim like “brain fog” and “chronic fatigue syndrome” seem like exactly the kind of non-specific, non-verifiable, non-treatable maladies that many hypochondriac women complained of before COVID.

    The fact that many of the forums where people discuss COVID long haul issues overlap with discussions of these hypochondriac conditions (Epstein Barr, Ehler Danos, chronic fatigue syndrome, fibromyalgia, etc.) further strains credulity that bonafide COVID long haulers with real sequelae are as numerous as the people coming out of the woodwork with strange symptoms to claim that mantle. This is a reductio ad absurdum of that situation (post-COVID symptoms included “loss of language fluency”—brain inflammation strictly in Broca’s I guess— and death!) but it at least goes to show that the most outrageous claims about the long haul can surely be dismissed out of hand. It also makes me suspect that much of the brouhaha is the same type of people who claimed disability from various unprovable maladies before are doing the same thing now but with a more sympathetic, plausible cause of their misfortune. I do also believe there are relatively rare individuals who do develop a genuine auto inflammatory disorder after recovering from COVID. Hopefully these folks can be treated with drugs for rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, multiple sclerosis, etc.

  33. “As you’ll recall, it was only at the very end of March that a few brave NYC emergency room doctors began to speak out against the ventilator obsession of the medical community…”

    I didn’t realize that professionals calling for the use of medical equipment during the early stages of a novel virus was an “obsession”. It’s more like physicians implementing protocols and procedures, some on the fly, that will eventually be ironed out.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

    Experts say that’s because clinicians have become more skilled and are deploying new tactics as they learn more about the course of covid-19; some are using ventilators more selectively; many hospitals are less overwhelmed than when the virus first inundated Wuhan, parts of Italy and New York City; and early data on ventilation and death did not present a true picture.

    “NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?”

    Weasely phrasing on your part. Perhaps you could supply the studies that led you to draw your conclusion, for NYC **could be** or **may be** closer to herd immunity in and of itself.

    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200731/Research-suggests-New-York-City-may-have-reached-coronavirus-herd-immunity-threshold.aspx

    Disclaimer–medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1

    These findings have profound consequences for the governance of the current pandemic given that some populations may be close to achieving herd immunity despite being under more or less strict social distancing measures.

    “On the other hand, it’s still unclear how bad the long-term effects of CV will be.”

    Maybe. Then again, maybe not.

    https://www.hackensackmeridianhealth.org/HealthU/2020/07/29/what-are-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19

    A recent study from the University of Frankford in Germany showed abnormal heart findings in more than 75% of people studied who had recently recovered from COVID-19. A considerable majority of patients in the study were found to have had inflammation in the heart and muscle lining.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

    Researchers are now facing a familiar COVID-19 narrative: trying to make sense of a mystifying illness. Distinct features of the virus, including its propensity to cause widespread inflammation and blood clotting, could play a role in the assortment of concerns now surfacing. “We’re seeing a really complex group of ongoing symptoms,” says Rachael Evans, a pulmonologist at the University of Leicester.

    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-term-health-effects-covid-19

    A key question is what is causing the recurring symptoms – i.e. whether it is reactivation of a persistent infection, reinfection (which seems unlikely based on current data), or whether the person has become infected with another virus or even bacteria as their immune system is still recovering.

    “Since then, 9 notable personages have died in the U.S., most famously 74-year-old Herman Cain.”

    The diagnosis came more than a week after he had attended a rally for President Trump in Tulsa. He was on a ventilator before he died. Must have slipped by the (alleged) pattern recognizer.

    “It turned out that this Hopi science Twitter account which would pile on in support of MeToo activist BethAnn McLaughlin was a concoction of McLaughlin.”

    Cagey, Mr. Sailer. Throw a bone to your die-hard supporters during tin cup month. At least you remain committed to acknowledging that Covid-19 is a viable health threat. Cue the deniers…

    • Troll: Anonymousse
    • Replies: @Noah
    @Corvinus

    Why are you gay?

    , @Matt Buckalew
    @Corvinus

    Have you fucked in the past twelve months? Be honest.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    , @gabriel alberton
    @Corvinus


    A recent study from the University of Frankford in Germany showed abnormal heart findings in more than 75% of people studied who had recently recovered from COVID-19.
     
    That's a funny way to refer to University Hospital Frankfurt. There is no "University of Frankford'' in Germany, or, as far as I'm aware, anywhere. That badly-written article also does not link to the study itself and does not provide any information about its authors (which I'll provide myself here). They also get it wrong: as the study's authors note, the median time between the patients' WuFlu diagnoses and the imaging exams they underwent to detect their heart abnormalities was 71 days. So much for "recently recovered from COVID-19''.

    “On the other hand, it’s still unclear how bad the long-term effects of CV will be.”

    Maybe. Then again, maybe not.
     

    If you think that's "maybe not'' unclear (meaning that it's "maybe'' clear how bad the chronic effects will be) and that Sailer might be wrong saying that, then have a word with Puntmann and collaborators, who conducted that study, and came to the conclusion that

    "These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.''
     
    Meaning things are not clear enough to them. This being a new coronavirus, that's expected. Besides, not that many things are ever clear in the biological sciences. But please, do share any information you have with them, or with us.
    , @Alexander Turok
    @Corvinus

    Tin cup month is over, I'm sure Steve's wondering how much of it was due to the general economic crisis versus him being in this cat-state on corona.

    It'd be interesting to compare the trend in donations to VDARE vs. NRO.

  34. @Almost Missouri
    Since a vaccine is largely illusory, the only real exit strategy is herd immunity (or the fact the all epidemics just peter out eventually even if no one is really knows why). Therefore, ideally we want high case rates but with low death rates: most everyone gets infected, recovers, is inoculated and we move on. Astonishingly, in spite of the incompetence and rancor at every level, this seems to be more or less happening. We now have a lot of cases, but relatively few deaths. Of course, the case counts are extremely artifacted by various testing regimes, so the case numbers are absurdly unreliable. But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before.

    And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result without multi-trillion dollar, riot-spawning, famine-inducing, nation-shaking lockdowns. As even the pro-authoritarian NYT's figures show, all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June. What are any of them still doing in lockdown? Good question. Apparently their authorities just like it that way. If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy, they would not be locking down during warmer months, and probably not be locking down at all. Social distance, masks, whatever: sure. Mass house arrest: insanity ... or malign conspiracy.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Polynikes, @Chrisnonymous, @Buddy Stevenson, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Alexander Turok

    “An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor…”

    That’s rich.

    “And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result…”

    Probably not.

    “all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience”

    Not particularly.

    “thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months”

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244685352.html

    County and state leaders are beginning to crack down on gatherings at restaurants, as officials express frustration that many young people aren’t complying with social distancing recommendations and mask requirements — especially when alcohol is involved.

    “If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy…”

    They are using science, you just do not prefer how they are applying the results.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069301

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/19/880912184/younger-adults-are-increasingly-testing-positive-for-coronavirus

    • Troll: Anonymousse
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Corvinus

    For one so verbose and tedious, you lack data.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Corvinus


    “And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result…”

    Probably not.
     
    You don't know what you're talking about, you idiot. Sweden has a death-rate lower than New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, the UK, Belgium, Spain - all of which had lockdown policies ranging from intrusive to draconian.

    For stupid people like you "Science" is just a magic talisman - a thing you stroke and chant words over in the hopes that it will work it's mystical ju-ju.

    You don't understand anything about science. You are a moron.

    Replies: @utu

    , @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    @Corvinus

    Learn how to use the comment form here properly!

    It isn't hard.

    Steve, our host, is a boomer and even he knows how to use blockquotes! (just kidding, love you, Steve)

    , @Old Prude
    @Corvinus

    After five months of this nonsense I am more convinced than ever that “It’s Just the Flu, Bro” is a pretty good approximation. The six people I work with who have had it got thru fine. The hysteria and wild over reaction are the ONLY things remarkable about this bug

    Humanity is acting like a bunch of girls. OMG!

    , @fredtard
    @Corvinus

    The problem with your "arguments from authority" is that I have a complete lack of trust in, and therefore no fear resulting from, the messaging coming from big pharma and its corrupted sponsees. These sponsees include heretofore respected groups such as medical universities and research institutions, the captured revolving-door regulatory agencies, and the entire corporate media. Big, BIG money and power is plenty of incentive to mislead the public, if not flat-out lie. Could be a component of my mid-life crisis is delayed rebellion against my parents, both of whom were pharmacists (they both think this COVID 19 stuff is highly suspect too, and they're in their 80s.

    I take care of myself. I'm not fat, and I'm white and get plenty of sun. Otherwise, I'd be working hard on losing weight, and I'd be supplementing with Vit D. Of course, none of the high-vis public health officials whose primary interest is our collective well-being, or so they say, have been discussing these simple ways to improve our chances against any and all respiratory viruses. They're selling fear, remdesivir, and hopium vaccines. Oh, and submissive compliance.

    You may say "What a selfish asshole! He obviously doesn't give two shits about others, especially the most vulnerable." I'd like to think I'm helpful and useful to others, but maybe you're better than me. That must feel good. Hey, if you want to do something selfless to prove your superior altruism, I'd suggest you get on the NIH website and sign up to be a volunteer in the Moderna/NIH Phase 3 trial. They need 30,000 volunteers. Now that would be useful. I won't because I believe, based on in-depth knowledge, that most vaccines do much more harm (auto-immunity, neuro-inflammation, asthma, allergies, etc.) than good.

    I would, however, expose myself to a person with active COVID and then self-isolate....if I knew anyone or could find anyone who has it. No luck so far...

    Replies: @Corvinus

  35. @Buffalo Joe
    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Redneck farmer, @another fred, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @botazefa

    OT: You’ve got a great classical station where you’re at Joe. Wish we had one like it in NE Ohio!

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @Redneck farmer

    Red, where are you in NE Ohio? I have three children in the Buckeye state and a grand daughter at THE Ohio State.

    , @kaganovitch
    @Redneck farmer

    OT: You’ve got a great classical station where you’re at Joe. Wish we had one like it in NE Ohio!



    What kind of Redneck listens to classical music anyway? Years ago I had an office on site at a big hospitality kitchen in Manhattan. One of the chefs -a Jamaican- asked me what station i'm listening to, so I told him WQXR it's a classical music station . He said "Classical,mon, like Bob Marley?"

  36. @Almost Missouri
    Since a vaccine is largely illusory, the only real exit strategy is herd immunity (or the fact the all epidemics just peter out eventually even if no one is really knows why). Therefore, ideally we want high case rates but with low death rates: most everyone gets infected, recovers, is inoculated and we move on. Astonishingly, in spite of the incompetence and rancor at every level, this seems to be more or less happening. We now have a lot of cases, but relatively few deaths. Of course, the case counts are extremely artifacted by various testing regimes, so the case numbers are absurdly unreliable. But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before.

    And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result without multi-trillion dollar, riot-spawning, famine-inducing, nation-shaking lockdowns. As even the pro-authoritarian NYT's figures show, all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June. What are any of them still doing in lockdown? Good question. Apparently their authorities just like it that way. If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy, they would not be locking down during warmer months, and probably not be locking down at all. Social distance, masks, whatever: sure. Mass house arrest: insanity ... or malign conspiracy.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Polynikes, @Chrisnonymous, @Buddy Stevenson, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Alexander Turok

    The prevention of the spread among young healthy people this summer will likely be the largest contributing factor to any surge in the fall.

    It’s also looking like countries that haven’t politicized and use the “trump pills” are having lower mortality rates. The continued politicization off that treatment, even by our very own Dr. Fraudci, will likely be the largest contributing factor to any excess death in a second wave. Of course, this assumption rests on no Dem governors pulling a Cuomo and intentionally or negligently killing of their elderly.

  37. @Buffalo Joe
    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Redneck farmer, @another fred, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @botazefa

    The cases statistics are so clouded that any number given is going to be suspect. The one thing we know is that deaths are extremely low for the young and very high for the elderly. In spite of the age factor there still seems to be some genetic susceptibility involved, especially for those younger than 65 or 75.

    I have no doubt that this is a very serious disease for those who are susceptible, but it is obvious that susceptibility varies widely.

    I really wish more authorities would publish statistics at least as detailed as Cook County, IL did a couple of months ago (preferably more), but there seems to be a reluctance to do so. The way they are treating information makes one feel a bit like a mushroom, i.e. being fed shit in the dark.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    @another fred

    Another, thank you for the reply and the old mushroom remark, a classic.

    , @prosa123
    @another fred

    Even among people over age 90 the survival rate is 75%.

    , @Kyle
    @another fred

    Try googling the phrase “covid 19 is bullshit.” You won’t get any results. There is no nuance in this debate. You need to dig into statistics yourself gain a nuanced perspective. I’m scientifically illiterate so that’s difficult for me. Obviously locking everyone young and old inside for 18 months is a bad idea. It will only delay the curve, not flatten it. And there might never be a vaccine. Not to mention economic depression. What we need is a real national dialogue. A risk benefit analysis, comprising different age groups and co-morbidities. Who should lock down and who should be working. Personally I’m not worried about myself or fellow Americans developing heart damage or chronic kidney damage, I’m more worried about buying a house. But I can definitely see the other side of the debate. This virus is in the wild but I’m not sure it’s going to be here forever with seasonal epidemics like the flu and common cold. Sars-1 kinda just went away. This might be more of a one and done thing, like chicken pox. Still around and dangerous in the environment, but not a raging pandemic. Perhaps like chicken pox it’s better to get it as a child and deadly to get it as an older person... But frank discussion on chronic illness & mortality is not PC, so we can’t have frank discussion. That’s just not who we are as Americans. I agree with everything Corvinus is saying, but I disagree with his pessimism and his support of a complete national 2 month shut down. That’s asinine. Especially if you develop long term immunity after infection. My solution would be to lock down people over 45, mandatory masks, schools open with teachers on Skype, & otherwise let’er rip.

  38. I think it is too early to declare that we are over the second hump. This is mainly because school may or may not be starting soon. And what happens when school actually starts is difficult to predict.

    As someone with young children (and who is older than Steve Sailer and Urban Meyer), this is of particular concern.

  39. If you look at past flu pandemics (the closest historic analog to the current pandemic) they stop far short of the number that the R0 value would imply for “herd immunity”. A rough calculation based on this precedent implies that this pandemic peters out when 20% of people have had it. The comparison is complicated by our new ability to test people and so find more cases, especially in asymptomatic people. Still this should stop long before the 80% that the simple linear models say based on “herd immunity” (quotes because I don’t think it is correct to use that term for this situation)

  40. @Almost Missouri
    Since a vaccine is largely illusory, the only real exit strategy is herd immunity (or the fact the all epidemics just peter out eventually even if no one is really knows why). Therefore, ideally we want high case rates but with low death rates: most everyone gets infected, recovers, is inoculated and we move on. Astonishingly, in spite of the incompetence and rancor at every level, this seems to be more or less happening. We now have a lot of cases, but relatively few deaths. Of course, the case counts are extremely artifacted by various testing regimes, so the case numbers are absurdly unreliable. But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before.

    And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result without multi-trillion dollar, riot-spawning, famine-inducing, nation-shaking lockdowns. As even the pro-authoritarian NYT's figures show, all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June. What are any of them still doing in lockdown? Good question. Apparently their authorities just like it that way. If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy, they would not be locking down during warmer months, and probably not be locking down at all. Social distance, masks, whatever: sure. Mass house arrest: insanity ... or malign conspiracy.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Polynikes, @Chrisnonymous, @Buddy Stevenson, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Alexander Turok

    It is clear from the correlation of obesity and diabetes with severity and the non-correlation of other lung diseases like COPD and asthma, that this is a disease that is basically affecting those with poor metabolic status (always, of course, there are exceptions). I suspect this is part of the reason Sweden has done well in the death department–better underlying metabolic health.

    As I started saying a few months ago, we ought to be focused on how to prevent the disease from becoming severe rather than trying to stop it from spreading.

    Sure, there are possible treatments, like dexamethosone, maybe budesonide, and there are things you can add, like Vitamin D and zinc, but as N.N.Taleb points out, anti-fragility is achieved better by taking things away–in this case, your Twinkies and Big Gulp.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SBakerMD/status/1291002450808365057

    Dr. Shawn Baker is correct. We are now 6 months into COVID. Six months is long enough to make serious changes in your metabolic status. Plus, the fact that people are stuck at home and poor makes this a great time for people to try extended fasting regimines.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1288103894153695232

    In general, we should be doing this…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1287369827284217856

    In Japan, they keep telling people to avoid “the three Cs”–Closed spaces, Crowded spaces, and Close contact. All well and good, but avoiding the “the three Ss” is just as important–Sugar, Seed oils, and Sedentariness.

    If everyone in the USA had been avoiding the three Ss for the last 6 months, I’d wager we would have a different picture of health, a lower death rate, and better preparation for the next pandemic virus.

    • Agree: Mark G., Redman
    • Replies: @Anon
    @Chrisnonymous


    If everyone in the USA had been avoiding the three Ss for the last 6 months, I’d wager we would have a different picture of health, a lower death rate, and better preparation for the next pandemic virus.
     
    Amen brother.
    , @Redman
    @Chrisnonymous

    Wow. I’ve been waiting for someone to say this.

    In 1968 (the year of the Hong Kong Flu) when 100K Americans died, about 1 percent of the population has diabetes. Today it’s over 10 percent.

    Why isn’t Covid simply a wake up call to Americans to shed the weight and get in shape?

  41. @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor..."

    That's rich.

    "And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result..."

    Probably not.

    "all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience"

    Not particularly.

    "thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months"

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244685352.html


    County and state leaders are beginning to crack down on gatherings at restaurants, as officials express frustration that many young people aren’t complying with social distancing recommendations and mask requirements — especially when alcohol is involved.
     
    "If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy..."

    They are using science, you just do not prefer how they are applying the results.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069301

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/19/880912184/younger-adults-are-increasingly-testing-positive-for-coronavirus

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Mr. Anon, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Old Prude, @fredtard

    For one so verbose and tedious, you lack data.

    • Agree: Not Only Wrathful
    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "For one so verbose and tedious, you lack data."

    LOL. I provided two sources. You just don't want to sift through the information because it challenges your preexisting notions. Furthermore, Comment 7 is rich with data.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Almost Missouri

  42. Yes, the Case Fatality Rate has dropped dramatically since April in the US.

    But Steve, the CFR was **always** low in tropical and subtropical places such as Vietnam and Singapore, long before better treatments became known.

    Why? Indoor ambient humidity is much higher in the tropics year-round and in the US in summer.

    A massive new study (N=40,000) shows COVID-19 is far more likely to kill when the ambient air has low humidity.

    “Effects of environmental factors on severity and mortality of COVID-19”

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.11.20147157v2

    This strongly confirms the work of as Moriyama, Hugentobler and Iwasaki which showed how winter conditions of low humidity harm respiratory immunity.

    https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445

    The southern wave of coronavirus had a much lower CFR because ambient indoor humidity was much higher compared the dry heated air indoors in the northern tier in winter.

    The use of steam and humid air to mitigate respiratory infections and pneumonia has been known for a hundred years or more. That we forget such basic knowledge is one of the maddening things of this pandemic.

    Unless knowledge of humidification is spread more broadly, the CFR will rise sharply again during the traditional cold and flu season in colder regions, due to low indoor humidity.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  43. @utu
    High odds severe Covid-19 can lead to kidney injury or failure, medical studies reveal
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/severe-covid-19-can-lead-to-kidney-failure-medical-studies-reveal.html

    "At Mount Sinai 46% of patients that were admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic had some form of acute kidney injury; of those, 17% required urgent dialysis."

    "Surprisingly, 82% of patients that got an acute kidney injury had no history of kidney issues; 18% did. More than a third of patients that survived did not recover the same kidney function they had before contracting the virus."

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Kyle

    Or, in other words, being an old person confined to a hospital bed and hooked up to a ventilator for three weeks can lead to kidney problems.

  44. I’ve never heard explained why each week in the death chart includes a trough, which corresponds to the weekend. Are people trying to eek out one more weekend?

    • Replies: @Telemachos
    @Scott in PA

    The deaths in the charts are for day reported, not day the death happened. Often in the U.K. for example deaths are reported weeks after they happen.

    France makes an effort to report hospital deaths the day they happen but other deaths are reported once a week, on a Tuesday.

    I suspect that a lot of that sort of thing is going on here which is why Tuesday and Wednesday always have the highest death rate.

  45. @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor..."

    That's rich.

    "And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result..."

    Probably not.

    "all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience"

    Not particularly.

    "thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months"

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244685352.html


    County and state leaders are beginning to crack down on gatherings at restaurants, as officials express frustration that many young people aren’t complying with social distancing recommendations and mask requirements — especially when alcohol is involved.
     
    "If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy..."

    They are using science, you just do not prefer how they are applying the results.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069301

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/19/880912184/younger-adults-are-increasingly-testing-positive-for-coronavirus

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Mr. Anon, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Old Prude, @fredtard

    “And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result…”

    Probably not.

    You don’t know what you’re talking about, you idiot. Sweden has a death-rate lower than New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, the UK, Belgium, Spain – all of which had lockdown policies ranging from intrusive to draconian.

    For stupid people like you “Science” is just a magic talisman – a thing you stroke and chant words over in the hopes that it will work it’s mystical ju-ju.

    You don’t understand anything about science. You are a moron.

    • Agree: Federalist
    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    " Sweden has a death-rate lower than New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, the UK, Belgium, Spain" - Not when you account for the population density. Sweden when compared to economically and culturally similar Scandinavian countries like Denmark, Finland and Norway did about from 6 (Denmark) to 12 (Norway) times worse. Which means that if Sweden followed Norway that has similar population density to Sweden 91% of 5,760 dead Swedes would be still alive.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

  46. I liked how that graph of deaths had that explanatory note about the yellow bars “These are days with a data reporting anomaly”. And that reported COVID death in Florida that was actually due to a motorcycle accident? Was that a reporting anomaly too? How about the gun-shot victim who was chalked up as a “COVID death”. Based on everything we know, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are likely all over-reported.

    Still it is a shame that COVID is robbing us of the best-and-brightest imaginary lesbian Hopi geologists.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @Mr. Anon

    We all miss They, don't we.

  47. @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor..."

    That's rich.

    "And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result..."

    Probably not.

    "all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience"

    Not particularly.

    "thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months"

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244685352.html


    County and state leaders are beginning to crack down on gatherings at restaurants, as officials express frustration that many young people aren’t complying with social distancing recommendations and mask requirements — especially when alcohol is involved.
     
    "If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy..."

    They are using science, you just do not prefer how they are applying the results.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069301

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/19/880912184/younger-adults-are-increasingly-testing-positive-for-coronavirus

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Mr. Anon, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Old Prude, @fredtard

    Learn how to use the comment form here properly!

    It isn’t hard.

    Steve, our host, is a boomer and even he knows how to use blockquotes! (just kidding, love you, Steve)

  48. What do you know, another “Syrian Lesbian.” Between the online hyper-vocality of trannies and activists, and the fact that almost all of twitter are shills hoping to “nudge” you, one wonders how many trannies are trannies.

  49. @Redneck farmer
    Crap, I thought Sciencing_Bi was finally a Good Indian!

    Replies: @Change that Matters, @Lot, @Bard of Bumperstickers

    I don’t get it, she’s not a real BIPOC Indian? She looks just like all the Indians in academia and publishing, just needs a turquoise necklace.

    BethAnn Cancelling-Buffalo McLaughlin:

  50. @Captain Tripps

    If this really was a peak for deaths, it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment.
     
    There is also a no-zero percent probability that the current virus is milder than the initial strains, contributing to the lower CFR. And it appears the second wave has been much more concentrated among the younger, healthier population, because the high risk population learned the proper lessons (self isolate as much as possible, wash hands, disinfect, etc.) from the first wave.

    Anecdote: good friend of mine contracted it recently (this Summer); he's middle-aged and healthy (no comorbidities). Said symptoms lasted ~6 days; had a low grade fever, and a bit of a dry cough, plus the loss of taste/smell. Then he was over it and back to working out. Sounds almost exactly how a cold runs through me (5-7 days, loss of taste/smell, but more of a wet cough/congestion).

    I am increasingly just-so about coronavirus/COVID19. I'll do my part where necessary (wear mask indoors, distance from those who are high risk like my elderly mother), until it fades into the general disease burden background, but this thing is now in the wild, and here to stay. And as you note, we will continue to improve treatment/prophylaxis.

    Replies: @Lot

    “ Sounds almost exactly how a cold runs through me (5-7 days, loss of taste/smell, but more of a wet cough/congestion).”

    Coronaviruses cause about a sixth of common colds, so we’ve all had them many times.

    I’ve never had a loss of taste or smell before.

    • Replies: @Elsewhere
    @Lot


    I’ve never had a loss of taste or smell before.
     
    I have. Once almost ten years ago from a cold or flu. It was frightening to me because it was a total loss for about two weeks. I wasn't sure if my sense of smell would come back, and I really appreciate smell. I almost cried when I suddenly smelled onions again.
    , @peterike
    @Lot


    I’ve never had a loss of taste or smell before.

     

    It's called a stuffy nose. But people panicked by the media now call it "loss of taste and smell OHMY!"
  51. Anon[223] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buffalo Joe
    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Redneck farmer, @another fred, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @botazefa

    A rather callous acquaintance of mine says “much hinges on your social and medical influence.”

    I’d say, if your older, much hinges on your support network. The parents of a good friend are 89 (dad) and 85 (mom), and live alone with domestic help. In reasonably good health, they got coronavirus a month or so ago. The dad decided no way was he going to a hospital, and told the grown children so.

    He got it bad, with pneumonia. The wife didn’t get pneumonia. He was treated at home, monitored by a daughter, with HCQ (don’t know all the details). They both recovered and are doing well. The family says the oxygen concentrator, bought online and shipped to their small town, was key.

  52. @Corvinus
    "As you’ll recall, it was only at the very end of March that a few brave NYC emergency room doctors began to speak out against the ventilator obsession of the medical community..."

    I didn't realize that professionals calling for the use of medical equipment during the early stages of a novel virus was an "obsession". It's more like physicians implementing protocols and procedures, some on the fly, that will eventually be ironed out.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html


    Experts say that’s because clinicians have become more skilled and are deploying new tactics as they learn more about the course of covid-19; some are using ventilators more selectively; many hospitals are less overwhelmed than when the virus first inundated Wuhan, parts of Italy and New York City; and early data on ventilation and death did not present a true picture.
     
    "NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?"

    Weasely phrasing on your part. Perhaps you could supply the studies that led you to draw your conclusion, for NYC **could be** or **may be** closer to herd immunity in and of itself.

    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200731/Research-suggests-New-York-City-may-have-reached-coronavirus-herd-immunity-threshold.aspx


    Disclaimer--medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
     
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1

    These findings have profound consequences for the governance of the current pandemic given that some populations may be close to achieving herd immunity despite being under more or less strict social distancing measures.
     
    "On the other hand, it’s still unclear how bad the long-term effects of CV will be."

    Maybe. Then again, maybe not.

    https://www.hackensackmeridianhealth.org/HealthU/2020/07/29/what-are-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19


    A recent study from the University of Frankford in Germany showed abnormal heart findings in more than 75% of people studied who had recently recovered from COVID-19. A considerable majority of patients in the study were found to have had inflammation in the heart and muscle lining.
     
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

    Researchers are now facing a familiar COVID-19 narrative: trying to make sense of a mystifying illness. Distinct features of the virus, including its propensity to cause widespread inflammation and blood clotting, could play a role in the assortment of concerns now surfacing. “We’re seeing a really complex group of ongoing symptoms,” says Rachael Evans, a pulmonologist at the University of Leicester.
     
    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-term-health-effects-covid-19

    A key question is what is causing the recurring symptoms – i.e. whether it is reactivation of a persistent infection, reinfection (which seems unlikely based on current data), or whether the person has become infected with another virus or even bacteria as their immune system is still recovering.
     
    "Since then, 9 notable personages have died in the U.S., most famously 74-year-old Herman Cain."

    The diagnosis came more than a week after he had attended a rally for President Trump in Tulsa. He was on a ventilator before he died. Must have slipped by the (alleged) pattern recognizer.

    "It turned out that this Hopi science Twitter account which would pile on in support of MeToo activist BethAnn McLaughlin was a concoction of McLaughlin."

    Cagey, Mr. Sailer. Throw a bone to your die-hard supporters during tin cup month. At least you remain committed to acknowledging that Covid-19 is a viable health threat. Cue the deniers...

    Replies: @Noah, @Matt Buckalew, @gabriel alberton, @Alexander Turok

    Why are you gay?

  53. @Corvinus
    "As you’ll recall, it was only at the very end of March that a few brave NYC emergency room doctors began to speak out against the ventilator obsession of the medical community..."

    I didn't realize that professionals calling for the use of medical equipment during the early stages of a novel virus was an "obsession". It's more like physicians implementing protocols and procedures, some on the fly, that will eventually be ironed out.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html


    Experts say that’s because clinicians have become more skilled and are deploying new tactics as they learn more about the course of covid-19; some are using ventilators more selectively; many hospitals are less overwhelmed than when the virus first inundated Wuhan, parts of Italy and New York City; and early data on ventilation and death did not present a true picture.
     
    "NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?"

    Weasely phrasing on your part. Perhaps you could supply the studies that led you to draw your conclusion, for NYC **could be** or **may be** closer to herd immunity in and of itself.

    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200731/Research-suggests-New-York-City-may-have-reached-coronavirus-herd-immunity-threshold.aspx


    Disclaimer--medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
     
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1

    These findings have profound consequences for the governance of the current pandemic given that some populations may be close to achieving herd immunity despite being under more or less strict social distancing measures.
     
    "On the other hand, it’s still unclear how bad the long-term effects of CV will be."

    Maybe. Then again, maybe not.

    https://www.hackensackmeridianhealth.org/HealthU/2020/07/29/what-are-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19


    A recent study from the University of Frankford in Germany showed abnormal heart findings in more than 75% of people studied who had recently recovered from COVID-19. A considerable majority of patients in the study were found to have had inflammation in the heart and muscle lining.
     
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

    Researchers are now facing a familiar COVID-19 narrative: trying to make sense of a mystifying illness. Distinct features of the virus, including its propensity to cause widespread inflammation and blood clotting, could play a role in the assortment of concerns now surfacing. “We’re seeing a really complex group of ongoing symptoms,” says Rachael Evans, a pulmonologist at the University of Leicester.
     
    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-term-health-effects-covid-19

    A key question is what is causing the recurring symptoms – i.e. whether it is reactivation of a persistent infection, reinfection (which seems unlikely based on current data), or whether the person has become infected with another virus or even bacteria as their immune system is still recovering.
     
    "Since then, 9 notable personages have died in the U.S., most famously 74-year-old Herman Cain."

    The diagnosis came more than a week after he had attended a rally for President Trump in Tulsa. He was on a ventilator before he died. Must have slipped by the (alleged) pattern recognizer.

    "It turned out that this Hopi science Twitter account which would pile on in support of MeToo activist BethAnn McLaughlin was a concoction of McLaughlin."

    Cagey, Mr. Sailer. Throw a bone to your die-hard supporters during tin cup month. At least you remain committed to acknowledging that Covid-19 is a viable health threat. Cue the deniers...

    Replies: @Noah, @Matt Buckalew, @gabriel alberton, @Alexander Turok

    Have you fucked in the past twelve months? Be honest.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Matt Buckalew

    LOL. I say, you do have a way with words. I mean, you are allegedly a 6'2, alt right Catholic jock who attended an Ivy League school and has a trust fund. But anyone can be anything on the Internet, right, Chateau Heartiste admirer?

    Replies: @Matt Buckalew

  54. @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor..."

    That's rich.

    "And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result..."

    Probably not.

    "all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience"

    Not particularly.

    "thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months"

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244685352.html


    County and state leaders are beginning to crack down on gatherings at restaurants, as officials express frustration that many young people aren’t complying with social distancing recommendations and mask requirements — especially when alcohol is involved.
     
    "If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy..."

    They are using science, you just do not prefer how they are applying the results.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069301

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/19/880912184/younger-adults-are-increasingly-testing-positive-for-coronavirus

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Mr. Anon, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Old Prude, @fredtard

    After five months of this nonsense I am more convinced than ever that “It’s Just the Flu, Bro” is a pretty good approximation. The six people I work with who have had it got thru fine. The hysteria and wild over reaction are the ONLY things remarkable about this bug

    Humanity is acting like a bunch of girls. OMG!

  55. OT: Port of Beirut, before and after.

    Hopefully the rather wealthy Lebanese diaspora and or the UN will fund reconstruction before too many ‘adventurers’ begin to flood the West.

    Existing Sunni Lebanese immigrants haven’t shown much gratitude to their host societies.

    Lebanese guy who got into Belgium by asylum fraud (He admits this, thinks he did nothing wrong) who became a politician for the fact of being a young ethnocentric Sunni Muslim man who didn’t have a violent criminal record.

    https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=629_1239027931

    “The autochthons can’t adapt to the multicultural reality. That’s what’s going on. Then they will have to emigrate. Who does not like it here, should leave.”

    AEL-leader Dyab Abou Jahjah makes this statement in the latest edition of the Dutch magazine ‘Society Quarterly’, a quite remarkable statement.
    Belgians or Dutchmen who can’t live with the multicultural society in their own country should move/emigrate.

    Emigrate to where, is the question.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyab_Abou_Jahjah

    Looking through Jahjah’s CV is impressive in how much he openly says he hates the place that took him in and gave him a political career, which he uses to agitate for more immigration of muslims and denigrate the natives. They share that impressive and alien assurance to pursue their groups interests at the expensive of the host society without any hesitation and indeed an expectation that their parasitism be allowed. They get angry when there is any push back, like a spoiled child who has learned no fear or respect for their parent.

    And in Sydney where their presence was quite pronounced, the second generation took to resuming their old ways, this time against Anglo-Celtic Australians, committing ethnic gang rapes until they triggered the Cronulla race riots in 2005.

  56. NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?

    Feh. It was over in NYC by May. They could have had a 100% re-opening at that point. Instead, Cuomo keeps moving the goalposts, and his utterly arbitrary “Stages” have been reduced to meaninglessness. He just does whatever he feels like. Yet follow his twitter: every time he needlessly extends a lockdown, his feed is filled with people thanking him for “keeping us safe!” Along with a much smaller percentage of dissenters calling him out.

    It’s a sad situation in the Big Apple. The city is run by a genuine moron in DeBlasio, and the State by a genuine monster in Cuomo. Meanwhile, 80% of restaurants and bars were not able to pay their full rent in July. 80%! Yet in-restaurant dining fades ever more into the distant future with no date in site. And deaths in the city are now down to a few a day. I kid you not, it’s like 2 or 3 a day. And we are far below every other “milestone” measurement. 15-20K tests a day with a positive rate of 1%.

    Yet the rules remain!

    • Replies: @eD
    @peterike

    The lockdowns hitting hardest in the cities, and in blue areas in general, raises an interesting point.

    Right now I'm told suburban real estate sales are booming, but my source is Reddit comments so I am taking this with bags of salt.

    Since the deal with central cities like New York is that you basically trade space, and the ability to isolate yourself from people you may not like, for employment opportunities and the ability to do stuff, obviously if you keep banning businesses in cities and not in the countryside, people will leave the cities. This is happening now, and I'm not able to figure out the play here.

    Either this is another effort to clear out the cities before unleashing the nukes, or this will be extended back to the countryside eventually. And in the USA, people in the country being armed may have something to do with it.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    , @Kaz
    @peterike

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-new-york-city-zero-covid-deaths-three-days/

    They're terrified to go back to what they were seeing a few months ago where the situation was completely out of control.

    Now they're on par with other countries where they have an average of less than 10 deaths a week..

    NY coffers are hurting right now, but after the surge in deaths they experienced from April-May leaders feel it's worth it to stay shut down.

    Remember NY leadership was happy to downplay COVID concerns until it hit them like a truck. I don't think it's some grand conspiracy, they're actually scared.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    , @The Wild Geese Howard
    @peterike


    Instead, Cuomo keeps moving the goalposts, and his utterly arbitrary “Stages” have been reduced to meaninglessness. He just does whatever he feels like.
     
    I like his quarantine list that fails to follow the posted numeric NYS guidelines for a state to be included. It's funny how the states not on the list are the ones with lunatic lib govs that are colluding with Cuomo, likely at the behest of the CCP.

    Yet follow his twitter: every time he needlessly extends a lockdown, his feed is filled with people thanking him for “keeping us safe!”
     
    I've seen this as well and it is quite pitiful, as fellow commenter theMann has pointed out.

    Recent polls indicate the percentage of the pitiful out there is anywhere from 50% to 75%.
    , @VinnyVette
    @peterike

    And according to that old sage Cuomo... "chicken wings aren't food."
    He isn't qualified to run a fast food restaurant, no less govern a state!

  57. This is the Bactrian model, as opposed to the Dromedary?

  58. @Almost Missouri
    Since a vaccine is largely illusory, the only real exit strategy is herd immunity (or the fact the all epidemics just peter out eventually even if no one is really knows why). Therefore, ideally we want high case rates but with low death rates: most everyone gets infected, recovers, is inoculated and we move on. Astonishingly, in spite of the incompetence and rancor at every level, this seems to be more or less happening. We now have a lot of cases, but relatively few deaths. Of course, the case counts are extremely artifacted by various testing regimes, so the case numbers are absurdly unreliable. But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before.

    And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result without multi-trillion dollar, riot-spawning, famine-inducing, nation-shaking lockdowns. As even the pro-authoritarian NYT's figures show, all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June. What are any of them still doing in lockdown? Good question. Apparently their authorities just like it that way. If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy, they would not be locking down during warmer months, and probably not be locking down at all. Social distance, masks, whatever: sure. Mass house arrest: insanity ... or malign conspiracy.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Polynikes, @Chrisnonymous, @Buddy Stevenson, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Alexander Turok

    How can there be herd immunity when antibodies for this coronavirus (and others) only last a few months?

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Buddy Stevenson


    How can there be herd immunity when antibodies for this coronavirus (and others) only last a few months?
     
    That's one of the questions you're not supposed to ask. Herd immunity is a matter of faith. If herd immunity isn't possible we're screwed, therefore it must happen.

    It's like the vaccine. Just keep believing in it and it will happen.

    Replies: @Buddy Stevenson

    , @BB753
    @Buddy Stevenson

    You only need a few months of herd immunity to get rid of a virus. Until it comes back, perhaps next winter season, or not. Just like the flu. Living and breathing is dangerous for the old and sickly. Always has been and always will be. Now, can we get on with our lives and toss the silly masks in the bin?

    , @Almost Missouri
    @Buddy Stevenson

    There's more to immunity than antibodies.

  59. …Alabama which has no canyons.

    The “Grand Canyon Of The East” Is Right Here In Alabama… And It’s Spectacular

    THE BEST Alabama Canyons (with Photos)

    WELCOME to DISMALS CANYON: National Natural Landmark

    Dismalites (glowworms)
    Past twilight the canyon lights up with tiny bioluminescent creatures we call Dismalites. These “glowworms” require a select habitat to survive and are unique to only a few places on Earth. They are “close cousins” of the rare glowworms found in Australia and New Zealand.

    Guided Night Tours allow visitors to see these unique insects.

    “We are experiencing an extremely high volume of calls this season. If you get a busy signal please continue to call back. Sorry for the inconvenience but a “human” answers every call not a “robot” or “machine” during business hours! “

    BTW, did everyone celebrate Obama’s Birthday yesterday? It was also Coast Guard Day, and the birthday of one of the Brimelow children.

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    @Reg Cæsar

    Eh, the canyons aren’t that impressive. Dismals is unique, but the others are just okay, comparable to the scenery in Arkansas. Most scenic part of Alabama is the beaches.

    , @Bert
    @Reg Cæsar

    Web-spinning predatory non-luminescent larvae of related fungus gnats are found in caves of Jamaica and Belize and in the wind-protected understory of Central American high canopy wet forests.
    More than you want to know, I'm sure.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @JMcG
    @Reg Cæsar

    Please, the Grand Canyon of the East is, of course, near Wellsboro, Pennsylvania. It has Pine Creek at the bottom rather than the mighty Colorado, but other than that, you’d be hard pressed to know you weren’t looking at the real thing.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Reg Cæsar

    Thanks Reg. I've only been to Alabama one time in my life, and never north of B-ham. But i'm always looking for interesting places to visit on the way from FL to WA. And i haven't yet crossed the GA-AL and AL-TN borders. The Little River Canyon in particular looks worth the stop.

  60. Anonymous[337] • Disclaimer says:

    Does that count as redface ?

    – Dan Snyder

  61. The richest, but perhaps most expected, part of that fake Indian story comes at the very end: There is nothing less than a 100% chance that this woman is anything but a completely Woke Trump-hater. And who, or what, do they blame at the end? Why, of course, the historical racism suffered by Indians, and she’s just a racist, and blah blah blah, and we stopped writing before we could blame Trump.

  62. @Almost Missouri
    @Corvinus

    For one so verbose and tedious, you lack data.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    “For one so verbose and tedious, you lack data.”

    LOL. I provided two sources. You just don’t want to sift through the information because it challenges your preexisting notions. Furthermore, Comment 7 is rich with data.

    • Troll: Anonymousse
    • Replies: @El Dato
    @Corvinus

    Right.


    "When I go out, I call out young people who don't have a mask and ask them why. Do they mind if their grandpa or their grandmother gets ill?" McCormick said.
     
    Right. We still don't even know whether masks actually have any net benefit whatsoever.

    Mental cases running around in the greens with masks on are a hoot.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html
    , @Almost Missouri
    @Corvinus

    Did you read your "two sources"? They both say the the same thing I did: there appears to be an increase in cases (not deaths), primarily among the young and less vulnerable. Since both the UN and NPR are incompetent, corrupt shill organizations, they both draw the wrong conclusion from this observation. They should be happy that inoculation is spreading among those who can handle it. Instead they proceed to demand that everyone return to house arrest to stretch the epidemic and attendant damage as long as possible.


    Comment 7 is rich with data.
     
    One of your defining characteristics is data paucity, which is why few readers, other than the bored, such as myself, bother engaging with you. Then there is your hypocrisy. You demand others read your shovel-loaded links (which you clearly haven't read nor understood), yet you haven't read my links or anyone else's.

    Nevertheless, from Comment 7:


    Experts say that’s because clinicians have become more skilled and are deploying new tactics as they learn more about the course of covid-19; some are using ventilators more selectively
     

     
    In other words, clinicians are using ventilators less, exactly as Sailer said. So you not only don't read anyone else's links, you don't even read your own links even as you post extracts from them!

    It would be funny if it weren't so pitiful.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  63. @Almost Missouri
    Since a vaccine is largely illusory, the only real exit strategy is herd immunity (or the fact the all epidemics just peter out eventually even if no one is really knows why). Therefore, ideally we want high case rates but with low death rates: most everyone gets infected, recovers, is inoculated and we move on. Astonishingly, in spite of the incompetence and rancor at every level, this seems to be more or less happening. We now have a lot of cases, but relatively few deaths. Of course, the case counts are extremely artifacted by various testing regimes, so the case numbers are absurdly unreliable. But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before.

    And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result without multi-trillion dollar, riot-spawning, famine-inducing, nation-shaking lockdowns. As even the pro-authoritarian NYT's figures show, all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June. What are any of them still doing in lockdown? Good question. Apparently their authorities just like it that way. If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy, they would not be locking down during warmer months, and probably not be locking down at all. Social distance, masks, whatever: sure. Mass house arrest: insanity ... or malign conspiracy.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Polynikes, @Chrisnonymous, @Buddy Stevenson, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Alexander Turok

    “But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before.”

    Case counts are up because facediaper use is up. People load up their diapers with bacteria and virums and touch their faces much more than normal whilst bediapered. As Americans diaper up, case counts soar xponentially.

    Bottom line: face diapers increase disease and must be banned with hefty fines and imprisonment.

    • Replies: @jon
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen


    Case counts are up because facediaper use is up. People load up their diapers with bacteria and virums and touch their faces much more than normal whilst bediapered. As Americans diaper up, case counts soar xponentially.
     
    This is just made up bullshit.
    I live in Korea, we had our first documented positive case on the same day that the US had theirs. We were also the first big hot-spot outside of China, with a big outbreak in a secretive cult/church in Daegu. The whole "pandemic" was a short lived scare and everything is pretty close to back to normal now. Total deaths are still below 300. We've been below 50 new cases a day for months now, and Daegu, the original center of the outbreak, hasn't had a single case in weeks (for per capita comparison of stats, Korea has a population around 50 million).
    Everyone here has been wearing masks since the start, and everyone is still wearing them now. The government even set up a mask rationing system where everyone could get a certain number a week to prevent hoarding and to encourage everyone to mask up.
    All of the countries that are like Korea that have been wearing masks since the start are doing better at this than the countries that don't:

    Countries with early adoption of face masks showed modest coronavirus infection rates, researchers say
     
    https://www.foxnews.com/science/countries-early-adoption-face-masks-modest-coronavirus-infection-rates

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @The Last Real Calvinist

    , @dfordoom
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen


    Bottom line: face diapers increase disease and must be banned with hefty fines and imprisonment.
     
    We also need to ban re-usable shopping bags, which are nothing but pathogen traps.
  64. OT: The belief in the power of the female!

    Can’t even control rape in western armed forces, but no. Let’s put them females in uniforms. The God of Woke demands it.

    NATO’s appalling failure in Afghanistan has fuelled a drug explosion across Europe

    The rape and murder of Afghan police officers

    Our investment of blood and treasure has resulted in a weekly death toll of up to 200 Afghan police murdered by insurgents or organised criminals. Whilst our naïve and politically correct attempts to change the gender balance of the force has resulted in over 3,000 brave educated young Afghan women being sexually assaulted or worse by their police colleagues.

    This happened because we ignored the medieval attitudes to women and the tribal nature of the country. The only people who would allow their girls to join the police were the Dari speaking Hazaras, so to meet our gender balance targets we took thousands of them for seven-week courses to Turkey, before dropping them in small numbers in semi-derelict, filthy, vermin-infested police outposts with no facilities for women.

    They were left with their new male police colleagues, Pashtuns, Nuristanis, Turkics, Uzbeks, or Tajiks, many semi-illiterate and almost all deeply misogynistic, for whom corruption, violence and abuse of young boys is their daily bread. In some cases, they spoke a different language to the policewomen. Imagine being a young, inexperienced female recruit, dumped unsupported thousands of miles from home, with no way of leaving the police camp without being tortured and murdered by the Taliban. Some were lucky, and got to function as cleaners or cooks. Others were brutally abused.

    Only the most idealistic, naïve feminists would insist on forcing through the gender agenda in a society not yet ready for it, but that is what our diplomats and tree huggers did from behind the walls of their embassies in Kabul. It is an example of how out of touch with reality our efforts have been.

  65. This piece could use more exposure: Stuff sane people have said for months now parroted by Health-Nazis: zero coverage by media whores.

    https://www.redstate.com/michael_thau/2020/07/27/head-of-cdc-lockdown-suicides-drug-ods-killing-way-more-americans-than-covid/

    “Head of CDC Admits Lockdown Killing Way More Americans Than COVID! “

  66. @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "For one so verbose and tedious, you lack data."

    LOL. I provided two sources. You just don't want to sift through the information because it challenges your preexisting notions. Furthermore, Comment 7 is rich with data.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Almost Missouri

    Right.

    “When I go out, I call out young people who don’t have a mask and ask them why. Do they mind if their grandpa or their grandmother gets ill?” McCormick said.

    Right. We still don’t even know whether masks actually have any net benefit whatsoever.

    Mental cases running around in the greens with masks on are a hoot.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  67. “For example, the popular Twitter personality, Sciencing_Bi, a Hopi Indian born in Alabama who is a professor of queerness or whatever at Arizona State, came down with CV months ago, suffered from it in the Long Haul, and recently died of it.”

    Let us find out regarding President Trump, another popular Twitter personality, what he thinks about Covid-19. A treasure trove of iSteve content is there, for those who want to NOTICE.

    • Troll: Anonymousse, Ben tillman
    • Replies: @peterike
    @Corvinus

    Ok, I read the first five or six of those "lies" Trump supposedly said, and every one of them was a case of weaselly, Talmudic (Seth Abramson, after all) hair splitting. Every one easily arguable as not a lie at all.

    But this is typical of the "Trump told a billion lies" media spin. Here's the first example, but they are all like this:


    LIE: Trump says that—despite growing up in the "church" of Norman Vincent Beale's now-infamous philosophy of "positive thinking"—he's equally committed to always seeing the downside of a scenario.

    TRUTH: Trump aides' books confirm he won't hear bad news—and it endangers America.

     

    How on earth does that so-called "truth" contradict Trump's assertion at all, much less make it a "lie"? And saying Trump "won't hear bad news" in reality means he doesn't ACCEPT bad news, and he tells you to go fix it. Which is what CEOs do. But the butt-hurt "aide" writing the tell-all book whines that Trump won't listen. As in, won't listen to my mealy-mouthed excuses.

    I'd say about 95% of what the media calls a Trump "lie" is precisely this kind of prevaricating bullshit. And half the time Abramson is using an actual lie (but a widely touted media lie) to contradict Trump.

    Yet the number of Americans who believe the media's cheap carny act is simply amazing. Corvinus being a prime, in-house example.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Tusk, @RudyM

    , @Faraday's Bobcat
    @Corvinus

    I'd just like to take a moment and thank Corvinus for offering a perspective that we can only find on every legacy media website in America.

    , @Anon
    @Corvinus

    Smugness personified. I guess some people aren't as repelled by smugness as they should be, because they want to be part of the smug crowd.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  68. Still the useless and utterly nonsensical mask dictat’s remain in place in most states.

  69. anon[730] • Disclaimer says:

    But then somebody finally noticed that Hopi Indians live in the canyons near the Grand Canyon, not in Alabama which has no canyons.

    It is the Havasupai people who live near the Grand Canyon. One of their tourist attractions bears this out. Please note, the glass panes hardly ever crack.

    The Hopi live over on the eastern side of Arizona, inside the Navajo nation. The Hopi time zone is different from the Navajo time zone because reasons.

    Slave-owning General Stand Watie had a better claim to any part of Alabama than a Hopi woman – bisexual or not. Sure do hope that ASU had a nice memorial service for her, because I doubt very much the Hopi did.

  70. @Almost Missouri
    An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor, the US may have unintentionally settled into a nearly optimal strategy: older and more vulnerable people are sequestered, while younger and healthier people mingle in the streets passing around germs, surviving, and so creating herd immunity.

    It's just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months, and b) not promoting the big lie that there is a war on black people.

    Replies: @HammerJack, @AKAHorace, @AnotherDad, @Kronos, @Anon

    It’s just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last se

    Have you seen any study on if the virus was spread by the BLM riots/demonstrations ? Everything that I have read in the media says that this did not happen and/or was minimal and that opening up states was what did the damage. I was skeptical but rates seem to have increased more in inland states which were opening up compared to New York where there seems to have been a lot of demonstrations/riots.

    Is this because the BLM stuff tended to be outdoors, BLMs wore masks and the amount of contact was small compared to the far more frequent everyday activities that occurred when states opened up ? Or were stats minimized and massaged ?

    • Replies: @Kaz
    @AKAHorace

    The virus wasn't spread in any significant measure by the riots/protests because a small % of the population engaging in outdoor protesting for a couple of hours out of the day pales in comparison to 20% of the population going out and living their lives as if covid doesn't exist.

  71. anon[143] • Disclaimer says:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420v1

    A math heavy paper looking at how the simple models break down. The main point, I think, is that over dispersion (high variance) doesn’t explain it but heterogeneity does. People aren’t the same.

    Such a strong departure from the homogeneity assumptions of traditional well-mixed compartment model is usually hypothesized to be the result of short-term super-spreader events, such as individual’s extreme rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation. However, heterogeneity can also arise through long-term, or persistent variations in individual susceptibility or infectivity. Here, we show how to incorporate persistent heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models, and derive a non-linear dependence of the effective reproduction number R_e on the susceptible population fraction S.

    The result is a lower herd immunity threshold. There things are s curves, not exponential.

    • Agree: vhrm
  72. @utu
    High odds severe Covid-19 can lead to kidney injury or failure, medical studies reveal
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/severe-covid-19-can-lead-to-kidney-failure-medical-studies-reveal.html

    "At Mount Sinai 46% of patients that were admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic had some form of acute kidney injury; of those, 17% required urgent dialysis."

    "Surprisingly, 82% of patients that got an acute kidney injury had no history of kidney issues; 18% did. More than a third of patients that survived did not recover the same kidney function they had before contracting the virus."

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Kyle

    With the exception of two weeks dedicated to systemic racism, all the top medical journals and even the more technical ones (Nature, for example), have dedicated most of their space for covid-related “studies”. On the other side, governments have provided research money to any imbecile who can string together a phrase that includes covid. Even the Romanian government pays for “research” on the boomer flu.

    Ophthalmologists must have discovered eye changes following covid. Rheumatologists have elucidated covid-related joint pains. Medical physicists found the right dose of radiation for covid-related CT scan. Three boy scouts printed masks on their 3D printer, and shoved them masks up their behinds as it was never authorized for clinical use. BMJ is droning on about how blacks are coughing two more days when they get covid, as if we can change our race to a more covid-resistant one. Reich probably found the bn chromosome that really matters for covid’s ability to impair smell. George Church already implanted a piece of that chromosome in his genitals, to lower the problems he got from chronic soap allergies. AK is interested in how much that gene changes taste. Dipak Das tells everyone to drink more wine, pandemic or no pandemic.

    Everyone paid their mortgages, while their grad students paid their rents. Thermo Fisher made a killing.

    Everything was discovered, except a decent test, a decent antiseptic for surfaces, a decent high-volume filter for air, and a decent measurement of covid survival on air / on surfaces / in foods and water. I never expected a treatment or a vaccine, given the SARS experience, but at least these seemed important and perfectly feasible.

    We are nearing the end of the pandemic across the world. So now the “scientists” have little to report on new treatment strategies. Treat what, when almost all new cases are mild or asymptomatic? You can’t measure “days to remission”, when the patients come to the doctor without symptoms.

    And so, the window is closing fast on new cases in the civilized world. There won’t be any cases in the placebo arm for any treatment or vaccine. I doubt anyone will approve a vaccine trialed in India or some subSaharan country that is still lagging behind in new severe cases. So it’s over.

    And so, the pivot is now towards sequelae. You will hear about covid accelerating Alzheimer, AIDS, verrucae, and blenorrhagia. It will always be worsening, because otherwise the “experts” won’t be funded as much. Kidneys are just the beginning.

    • Thanks: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    "And so, the pivot is now towards sequelae."

    Yes. When flu season begins again mid-September in earnest, all respiratory illness and death will be attributed to BULLSHIT-2020 (as it is now) and Democratic states will shutter and demand vote-by-mail to fraud in Joe Diapers.

    I finally know a man whose death was attributed to BULLSHIT-2020. He was 85 and fought pneumonia for two months. The hospital deemed it death by BS-2020 for the coronabonu$$$. No, he died of pneumonia.

    Hoax.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

    , @vhrm
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    AND, what the heck happened to all the antibody testing that was supposed to be happening? There's more data from April than from now that i can find.

    All the media is still reporting primarily cumulative "confirmed cases" (though new daily cases also is in there) even though: they know it's something like 3x, 10x or 20x undercount of actual cases but no idea how much in any place at any given point AND that the disease course for most people is on order of a week...

    , @utu
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    I think I understand your cynicism. . For somebody from Romania the reality may appear as a grand conspiracy full of deceptions and gypsy hustlers. Fortunately the world is not Romania yet.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

  73. @Corvinus
    "For example, the popular Twitter personality, Sciencing_Bi, a Hopi Indian born in Alabama who is a professor of queerness or whatever at Arizona State, came down with CV months ago, suffered from it in the Long Haul, and recently died of it."

    Let us find out regarding President Trump, another popular Twitter personality, what he thinks about Covid-19. A treasure trove of iSteve content is there, for those who want to NOTICE.

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1290692707707424768

    Replies: @peterike, @Faraday's Bobcat, @Anon

    Ok, I read the first five or six of those “lies” Trump supposedly said, and every one of them was a case of weaselly, Talmudic (Seth Abramson, after all) hair splitting. Every one easily arguable as not a lie at all.

    But this is typical of the “Trump told a billion lies” media spin. Here’s the first example, but they are all like this:

    LIE: Trump says that—despite growing up in the “church” of Norman Vincent Beale’s now-infamous philosophy of “positive thinking”—he’s equally committed to always seeing the downside of a scenario.

    TRUTH: Trump aides’ books confirm he won’t hear bad news—and it endangers America.

    How on earth does that so-called “truth” contradict Trump’s assertion at all, much less make it a “lie”? And saying Trump “won’t hear bad news” in reality means he doesn’t ACCEPT bad news, and he tells you to go fix it. Which is what CEOs do. But the butt-hurt “aide” writing the tell-all book whines that Trump won’t listen. As in, won’t listen to my mealy-mouthed excuses.

    I’d say about 95% of what the media calls a Trump “lie” is precisely this kind of prevaricating bullshit. And half the time Abramson is using an actual lie (but a widely touted media lie) to contradict Trump.

    Yet the number of Americans who believe the media’s cheap carny act is simply amazing. Corvinus being a prime, in-house example.

    • Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @peterike



    I’d say about 95% of what the media calls a Trump “lie” is precisely this kind of prevaricating bullshit. And half the time Abramson is using an actual lie (but a widely touted media lie) to contradict Trump.

    Yet the number of Americans who believe the media’s cheap carny act is simply amazing. Corvinus being a prime, in-house example.
     
    Exactly right.

    The stupidity of the leftwing media -- and presumably our pal Corvinus -- takes many forms, but noting beats their inability to understand the difference between malevolent mendacity and easy exaggeration.

    Outstanding smack down. Will he slink back under his rock?
    , @Tusk
    @peterike

    Seeing all these headlines about 'TOTAL TRAINWRECK INTERVIEW' made me watch it, and as usual Trump comes across fairly norml though he does say and do some things wrong, but far from a total trainwreck. I think we've reached the reading tea leaves stage where everything Trump does is wrong.

    , @RudyM
    @peterike

    Yo Semites, it's Peale, not Beale.

  74. @Corvinus
    "As you’ll recall, it was only at the very end of March that a few brave NYC emergency room doctors began to speak out against the ventilator obsession of the medical community..."

    I didn't realize that professionals calling for the use of medical equipment during the early stages of a novel virus was an "obsession". It's more like physicians implementing protocols and procedures, some on the fly, that will eventually be ironed out.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html


    Experts say that’s because clinicians have become more skilled and are deploying new tactics as they learn more about the course of covid-19; some are using ventilators more selectively; many hospitals are less overwhelmed than when the virus first inundated Wuhan, parts of Italy and New York City; and early data on ventilation and death did not present a true picture.
     
    "NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?"

    Weasely phrasing on your part. Perhaps you could supply the studies that led you to draw your conclusion, for NYC **could be** or **may be** closer to herd immunity in and of itself.

    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200731/Research-suggests-New-York-City-may-have-reached-coronavirus-herd-immunity-threshold.aspx


    Disclaimer--medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
     
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1

    These findings have profound consequences for the governance of the current pandemic given that some populations may be close to achieving herd immunity despite being under more or less strict social distancing measures.
     
    "On the other hand, it’s still unclear how bad the long-term effects of CV will be."

    Maybe. Then again, maybe not.

    https://www.hackensackmeridianhealth.org/HealthU/2020/07/29/what-are-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19


    A recent study from the University of Frankford in Germany showed abnormal heart findings in more than 75% of people studied who had recently recovered from COVID-19. A considerable majority of patients in the study were found to have had inflammation in the heart and muscle lining.
     
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

    Researchers are now facing a familiar COVID-19 narrative: trying to make sense of a mystifying illness. Distinct features of the virus, including its propensity to cause widespread inflammation and blood clotting, could play a role in the assortment of concerns now surfacing. “We’re seeing a really complex group of ongoing symptoms,” says Rachael Evans, a pulmonologist at the University of Leicester.
     
    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-term-health-effects-covid-19

    A key question is what is causing the recurring symptoms – i.e. whether it is reactivation of a persistent infection, reinfection (which seems unlikely based on current data), or whether the person has become infected with another virus or even bacteria as their immune system is still recovering.
     
    "Since then, 9 notable personages have died in the U.S., most famously 74-year-old Herman Cain."

    The diagnosis came more than a week after he had attended a rally for President Trump in Tulsa. He was on a ventilator before he died. Must have slipped by the (alleged) pattern recognizer.

    "It turned out that this Hopi science Twitter account which would pile on in support of MeToo activist BethAnn McLaughlin was a concoction of McLaughlin."

    Cagey, Mr. Sailer. Throw a bone to your die-hard supporters during tin cup month. At least you remain committed to acknowledging that Covid-19 is a viable health threat. Cue the deniers...

    Replies: @Noah, @Matt Buckalew, @gabriel alberton, @Alexander Turok

    A recent study from the University of Frankford in Germany showed abnormal heart findings in more than 75% of people studied who had recently recovered from COVID-19.

    That’s a funny way to refer to University Hospital Frankfurt. There is no “University of Frankford” in Germany, or, as far as I’m aware, anywhere. That badly-written article also does not link to the study itself and does not provide any information about its authors (which I’ll provide myself here). They also get it wrong: as the study’s authors note, the median time between the patients’ WuFlu diagnoses and the imaging exams they underwent to detect their heart abnormalities was 71 days. So much for “recently recovered from COVID-19”.

    “On the other hand, it’s still unclear how bad the long-term effects of CV will be.”

    Maybe. Then again, maybe not.

    If you think that’s “maybe not” unclear (meaning that it’s “maybe” clear how bad the chronic effects will be) and that Sailer might be wrong saying that, then have a word with Puntmann and collaborators, who conducted that study, and came to the conclusion that

    “These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.”

    Meaning things are not clear enough to them. This being a new coronavirus, that’s expected. Besides, not that many things are ever clear in the biological sciences. But please, do share any information you have with them, or with us.

  75. I’m glad iSteve has now referenced the imaginary Hopi STEM academic who suddenly “died” of COVID-19. Not.

    The retired academic female professor tried to do a Wuhan Flu Jusse Smollet hoax but was crushed by obvious factual errors. Hopis are native only in AZ or NM and are a fairly small tribe. Like most Amerinds, they aren’t producing many scholars.

    Why is it that many of these “hate hoaxes” are perpetrated by women? Not all but quite a few. Usually they involve themselves as invented victims but in the Hopi case a woman invented a POC doppelganger who sadly, died despite doing heroic SJW “research.” This kind of female lying for revenge? gain? fame? is the main reason so many rational people (men and women) are skeptical about every alleged rape. In he said/she said situations the females are burdened with the easy manner in which some females pass off inventions as truth. Ask any divorce lawyer.

    There are very few documented cases of people invented hate hoaxes targeting the Left.

  76. @Corvinus
    "For example, the popular Twitter personality, Sciencing_Bi, a Hopi Indian born in Alabama who is a professor of queerness or whatever at Arizona State, came down with CV months ago, suffered from it in the Long Haul, and recently died of it."

    Let us find out regarding President Trump, another popular Twitter personality, what he thinks about Covid-19. A treasure trove of iSteve content is there, for those who want to NOTICE.

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1290692707707424768

    Replies: @peterike, @Faraday's Bobcat, @Anon

    I’d just like to take a moment and thank Corvinus for offering a perspective that we can only find on every legacy media website in America.

  77. @Almost Missouri
    An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor, the US may have unintentionally settled into a nearly optimal strategy: older and more vulnerable people are sequestered, while younger and healthier people mingle in the streets passing around germs, surviving, and so creating herd immunity.

    It's just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months, and b) not promoting the big lie that there is a war on black people.

    Replies: @HammerJack, @AKAHorace, @AnotherDad, @Kronos, @Anon

    … b) not promoting the big lie that there is a war on black people.

    The big lie that whites–i.e. white gentiles–are responsible for the poor performance of blacks across a broad range of socio-economic measures is the core justification for minoritarianism in the United States and ergo on out into the world.

    It can not be given up.

    • Agree: BenKenobi, jon, vhrm, vinteuil
  78. @Almost Missouri
    An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor, the US may have unintentionally settled into a nearly optimal strategy: older and more vulnerable people are sequestered, while younger and healthier people mingle in the streets passing around germs, surviving, and so creating herd immunity.

    It's just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months, and b) not promoting the big lie that there is a war on black people.

    Replies: @HammerJack, @AKAHorace, @AnotherDad, @Kronos, @Anon

    Any guesses if COVID-19 will cause for damage in blue states, red states, or even battleground states this November?

  79. @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor..."

    That's rich.

    "And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result..."

    Probably not.

    "all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience"

    Not particularly.

    "thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months"

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244685352.html


    County and state leaders are beginning to crack down on gatherings at restaurants, as officials express frustration that many young people aren’t complying with social distancing recommendations and mask requirements — especially when alcohol is involved.
     
    "If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy..."

    They are using science, you just do not prefer how they are applying the results.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069301

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/19/880912184/younger-adults-are-increasingly-testing-positive-for-coronavirus

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Mr. Anon, @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan, @Old Prude, @fredtard

    The problem with your “arguments from authority” is that I have a complete lack of trust in, and therefore no fear resulting from, the messaging coming from big pharma and its corrupted sponsees. These sponsees include heretofore respected groups such as medical universities and research institutions, the captured revolving-door regulatory agencies, and the entire corporate media. Big, BIG money and power is plenty of incentive to mislead the public, if not flat-out lie. Could be a component of my mid-life crisis is delayed rebellion against my parents, both of whom were pharmacists (they both think this COVID 19 stuff is highly suspect too, and they’re in their 80s.

    I take care of myself. I’m not fat, and I’m white and get plenty of sun. Otherwise, I’d be working hard on losing weight, and I’d be supplementing with Vit D. Of course, none of the high-vis public health officials whose primary interest is our collective well-being, or so they say, have been discussing these simple ways to improve our chances against any and all respiratory viruses. They’re selling fear, remdesivir, and hopium vaccines. Oh, and submissive compliance.

    You may say “What a selfish asshole! He obviously doesn’t give two shits about others, especially the most vulnerable.” I’d like to think I’m helpful and useful to others, but maybe you’re better than me. That must feel good. Hey, if you want to do something selfless to prove your superior altruism, I’d suggest you get on the NIH website and sign up to be a volunteer in the Moderna/NIH Phase 3 trial. They need 30,000 volunteers. Now that would be useful. I won’t because I believe, based on in-depth knowledge, that most vaccines do much more harm (auto-immunity, neuro-inflammation, asthma, allergies, etc.) than good.

    I would, however, expose myself to a person with active COVID and then self-isolate….if I knew anyone or could find anyone who has it. No luck so far…

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @fredtard

    "The problem with your “arguments from authority” is that I have a complete lack of trust in, and therefore no fear resulting from, the messaging coming from big pharma and its corrupted sponsees."

    See, it is virtually impossible to argue with those people who cling on this “Fake News” or “The media lies” or "Distrust experts" meme. Any fact you bring as an argument, they immediately attack the SOURCE, rather than the substance. Thus, it is easy to deny there is ANY evidence at all. This phenomenon has been brewing for a long time, and it has reached a critical mass at our point in world history. Unfortunately, this leads more people to become ignorant by facilitating echo chambers and confirmation bias. Rather than yell at the top of one’s lungs “Fake News” when they read a mainstream or alternative media story, and immediately discount everything, people ought look CRITICALLY at the facts, consider any bias, read other sources on the issue, and then draw their own conclusions, realizing that those conclusions will require verification from valid sources when challenged.

    "I’d like to think I’m helpful and useful to others, but maybe you’re better than me. That must feel good."

    That is a strawman.

    "Hey, if you want to do something selfless to prove your superior altruism..."

    That would be another strawman on your part.

    "I’d suggest you get on the NIH website and sign up to be a volunteer in the Moderna/NIH Phase 3 trial. They need 30,000 volunteers. Now that would be useful."

    Thanks. I'll investigate.

    "I won’t because I believe, based on in-depth knowledge, that most vaccines do much more harm (auto-immunity, neuro-inflammation, asthma, allergies, etc.) than good."

    You are entitled to your opinion. Food for thought--Perhaps that in-depth knowledge is the result of confirmation bias.

    Replies: @fredtard

  80. @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "For one so verbose and tedious, you lack data."

    LOL. I provided two sources. You just don't want to sift through the information because it challenges your preexisting notions. Furthermore, Comment 7 is rich with data.

    Replies: @El Dato, @Almost Missouri

    Did you read your “two sources”? They both say the the same thing I did: there appears to be an increase in cases (not deaths), primarily among the young and less vulnerable. Since both the UN and NPR are incompetent, corrupt shill organizations, they both draw the wrong conclusion from this observation. They should be happy that inoculation is spreading among those who can handle it. Instead they proceed to demand that everyone return to house arrest to stretch the epidemic and attendant damage as long as possible.

    Comment 7 is rich with data.

    One of your defining characteristics is data paucity, which is why few readers, other than the bored, such as myself, bother engaging with you. Then there is your hypocrisy. You demand others read your shovel-loaded links (which you clearly haven’t read nor understood), yet you haven’t read my links or anyone else’s.

    Nevertheless, from Comment 7:

    Experts say that’s because clinicians have become more skilled and are deploying new tactics as they learn more about the course of covid-19; some are using ventilators more selectively

    In other words, clinicians are using ventilators less, exactly as Sailer said. So you not only don’t read anyone else’s links, you don’t even read your own links even as you post extracts from them!

    It would be funny if it weren’t so pitiful.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "Did you read your “two sources”?...Since both the UN and NPR are incompetent, corrupt shill organizations, they both draw the wrong conclusion from this observation."

    No need for quotes. The sources are legitimate. And, right on cue, you automatically assume that any source that runs contrary to your position is incompetent. I get it. Life is much easier for you if you do not have to confront inconvenient hate facts.

    "They both say the the same thing I did: there appears to be an increase in cases (not deaths), primarily among the young and less vulnerable."

    Thank you for tacitly admitting I provided data. It took a major step in the right direction. Hopefully, you will not back track.

    "You demand others read your shovel-loaded links (which you clearly haven’t read nor understood), yet you haven’t read my links or anyone else’s."

    The reality is I read links, those I procure myself or those who kindly supplied them. Then, I take time to respond. That is called discourse. The more you know...

    "In other words, clinicians are using ventilators less, exactly as Sailer said."

    Mr. Sailer incorrectly characterized health professionals insistence on using ventilators in the early stages of Covid 19 as being "obsessive". That was my bone of contention. Try to pay closer attention.

    Replies: @Alexander Turok

  81. @Reg Cæsar

    ...Alabama which has no canyons.
     
    The “Grand Canyon Of The East” Is Right Here In Alabama… And It’s Spectacular

    THE BEST Alabama Canyons (with Photos)

    WELCOME to DISMALS CANYON: National Natural Landmark


    Dismalites (glowworms)
    Past twilight the canyon lights up with tiny bioluminescent creatures we call Dismalites. These "glowworms" require a select habitat to survive and are unique to only a few places on Earth. They are “close cousins” of the rare glowworms found in Australia and New Zealand.

    Guided Night Tours allow visitors to see these unique insects.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9dWye5fEeLU

    "We are experiencing an extremely high volume of calls this season. If you get a busy signal please continue to call back. Sorry for the inconvenience but a "human" answers every call not a "robot" or "machine" during business hours! "
     

    BTW, did everyone celebrate Obama's Birthday yesterday? It was also Coast Guard Day, and the birthday of one of the Brimelow children.

    Replies: @S. Anonyia, @Bert, @JMcG, @AnotherDad

    Eh, the canyons aren’t that impressive. Dismals is unique, but the others are just okay, comparable to the scenery in Arkansas. Most scenic part of Alabama is the beaches.

  82. anon[730] • Disclaimer says:

    T-cell activation by coronavirii of the common cold can confer some immunity to SARS-2. This might explain why some individuals on the Plague Princess in Yokohama harbor never contracted the coof, as well as why some individuals only develop a mild case of coof.

    Maybe the best anti-Coof vaccine is just a cocktail of cold virus? Don’t tell big pharma!

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-exposure-common-cold-coronaviruses-immune.html

  83. @Corvinus
    "For example, the popular Twitter personality, Sciencing_Bi, a Hopi Indian born in Alabama who is a professor of queerness or whatever at Arizona State, came down with CV months ago, suffered from it in the Long Haul, and recently died of it."

    Let us find out regarding President Trump, another popular Twitter personality, what he thinks about Covid-19. A treasure trove of iSteve content is there, for those who want to NOTICE.

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1290692707707424768

    Replies: @peterike, @Faraday's Bobcat, @Anon

    Smugness personified. I guess some people aren’t as repelled by smugness as they should be, because they want to be part of the smug crowd.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Anon

    "Smugness personified. I guess some people aren’t as repelled by smugness as they should be, because they want to be part of the smug crowd."

    Well, you certainly are front and center in this regard!

  84. Just in time:

    Ex-NYT reporter publishes new anti-lockdown book, calls out ‘90% of media’ on parroting same lines on Covid responses

    The author, who has been dismissed by his ex-employer the New York Times as a Covid-19 “contrarian,” says he can’t “imagine” lockdowns continuing for much longer, or for there to be any national shutdowns as some Democrats have suggested, because it has become clear how “destructive” the measures really are to the economy, mental health, and children kept out of school.

    Hospitalizations and death rates from the virus in states with strict lockdown mandates, like New York, compared to ones with more laidback measures, like Texas and Florida, also show that mass quarantine procedures do not make much of a difference.

  85. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @utu

    With the exception of two weeks dedicated to systemic racism, all the top medical journals and even the more technical ones (Nature, for example), have dedicated most of their space for covid-related "studies". On the other side, governments have provided research money to any imbecile who can string together a phrase that includes covid. Even the Romanian government pays for "research" on the boomer flu.

    Ophthalmologists must have discovered eye changes following covid. Rheumatologists have elucidated covid-related joint pains. Medical physicists found the right dose of radiation for covid-related CT scan. Three boy scouts printed masks on their 3D printer, and shoved them masks up their behinds as it was never authorized for clinical use. BMJ is droning on about how blacks are coughing two more days when they get covid, as if we can change our race to a more covid-resistant one. Reich probably found the bn chromosome that really matters for covid's ability to impair smell. George Church already implanted a piece of that chromosome in his genitals, to lower the problems he got from chronic soap allergies. AK is interested in how much that gene changes taste. Dipak Das tells everyone to drink more wine, pandemic or no pandemic.

    Everyone paid their mortgages, while their grad students paid their rents. Thermo Fisher made a killing.

    Everything was discovered, except a decent test, a decent antiseptic for surfaces, a decent high-volume filter for air, and a decent measurement of covid survival on air / on surfaces / in foods and water. I never expected a treatment or a vaccine, given the SARS experience, but at least these seemed important and perfectly feasible.

    We are nearing the end of the pandemic across the world. So now the "scientists" have little to report on new treatment strategies. Treat what, when almost all new cases are mild or asymptomatic? You can't measure "days to remission", when the patients come to the doctor without symptoms.

    And so, the window is closing fast on new cases in the civilized world. There won't be any cases in the placebo arm for any treatment or vaccine. I doubt anyone will approve a vaccine trialed in India or some subSaharan country that is still lagging behind in new severe cases. So it's over.

    And so, the pivot is now towards sequelae. You will hear about covid accelerating Alzheimer, AIDS, verrucae, and blenorrhagia. It will always be worsening, because otherwise the "experts" won't be funded as much. Kidneys are just the beginning.

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @vhrm, @utu

    “And so, the pivot is now towards sequelae.”

    Yes. When flu season begins again mid-September in earnest, all respiratory illness and death will be attributed to BULLSHIT-2020 (as it is now) and Democratic states will shutter and demand vote-by-mail to fraud in Joe Diapers.

    I finally know a man whose death was attributed to BULLSHIT-2020. He was 85 and fought pneumonia for two months. The hospital deemed it death by BS-2020 for the coronabonu$$$. No, he died of pneumonia.

    Hoax.

    • Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    I am not saying the virus does not exist - feeble people died from it. Also, it is common for a viral infection to turn bacterial. However, if you are a researcher in, say, oncology, you have to chose between risking your paycheck vs "covid-related research". Of course, you will do covid-related research, and, if you try hard, you will "find something".

    Remember the "cytokine storm of childhood covid"? Maybe it happened in three children, maybe it was the coronavirus, but it was so infrequent that I have yet to hear any guidelines discussing it seriously. When the numbers are so small, there is no difference between falsified data and one-in-a-million real complication.

    But you can't create new virologists overnight. If you dish more money on the researchers you have, you get results from whatever is their field. In utu's example, you get (likely negligible) kidney findings.

  86. eD says:
    @peterike

    NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?

     

    Feh. It was over in NYC by May. They could have had a 100% re-opening at that point. Instead, Cuomo keeps moving the goalposts, and his utterly arbitrary "Stages" have been reduced to meaninglessness. He just does whatever he feels like. Yet follow his twitter: every time he needlessly extends a lockdown, his feed is filled with people thanking him for "keeping us safe!" Along with a much smaller percentage of dissenters calling him out.

    It's a sad situation in the Big Apple. The city is run by a genuine moron in DeBlasio, and the State by a genuine monster in Cuomo. Meanwhile, 80% of restaurants and bars were not able to pay their full rent in July. 80%! Yet in-restaurant dining fades ever more into the distant future with no date in site. And deaths in the city are now down to a few a day. I kid you not, it's like 2 or 3 a day. And we are far below every other "milestone" measurement. 15-20K tests a day with a positive rate of 1%.

    Yet the rules remain!

    Replies: @eD, @Kaz, @The Wild Geese Howard, @VinnyVette

    The lockdowns hitting hardest in the cities, and in blue areas in general, raises an interesting point.

    Right now I’m told suburban real estate sales are booming, but my source is Reddit comments so I am taking this with bags of salt.

    Since the deal with central cities like New York is that you basically trade space, and the ability to isolate yourself from people you may not like, for employment opportunities and the ability to do stuff, obviously if you keep banning businesses in cities and not in the countryside, people will leave the cities. This is happening now, and I’m not able to figure out the play here.

    Either this is another effort to clear out the cities before unleashing the nukes, or this will be extended back to the countryside eventually. And in the USA, people in the country being armed may have something to do with it.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @eD

    Agree and two points -- a lot of infection was from urban people either not following the guidelines (like three-hundred-black-body black block parties) or not being able to (because they live in a city; one early death in Detroit was a bus driver unable to force customers to wear masks), and, increasingly, what the hell city job is anyone going to get, let alone what city job makes a bug's life worth living?
    These idiots gambled their home turf and lost; cities will suffer some diminution, though not what movie theaters have coming soon.

  87. Cases are dropping because the percent infected necessary for herd immunity is much lower than the incompetent epidemiologists predicted from their simplistic modeling. Nicotine may protect against infection. Vitamins D and B9 almost certainly protect. Primed T-cells from recent infections of common cold coronaviruses seem to protect. The probability of death when infected is lower because of more recent use of corticosteroids in many hospitals and hydroxychloroquine in outpatient settings.

    • Agree: J.Ross
    • Replies: @jon
    @Bert


    Nicotine may protect against infection.
     
    Mr. Burns right all along: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL25r7QxFMU
    And it seems Woody Allen may have been a Nostradamus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFxksNcLfcA
  88. @AKAHorace
    @Almost Missouri



    It’s just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last se


    Have you seen any study on if the virus was spread by the BLM riots/demonstrations ? Everything that I have read in the media says that this did not happen and/or was minimal and that opening up states was what did the damage. I was skeptical but rates seem to have increased more in inland states which were opening up compared to New York where there seems to have been a lot of demonstrations/riots.

    Is this because the BLM stuff tended to be outdoors, BLMs wore masks and the amount of contact was small compared to the far more frequent everyday activities that occurred when states opened up ? Or were stats minimized and massaged ?

    Replies: @Kaz

    The virus wasn’t spread in any significant measure by the riots/protests because a small % of the population engaging in outdoor protesting for a couple of hours out of the day pales in comparison to 20% of the population going out and living their lives as if covid doesn’t exist.

    • Thanks: AKAHorace
  89. @peterike
    @Corvinus

    Ok, I read the first five or six of those "lies" Trump supposedly said, and every one of them was a case of weaselly, Talmudic (Seth Abramson, after all) hair splitting. Every one easily arguable as not a lie at all.

    But this is typical of the "Trump told a billion lies" media spin. Here's the first example, but they are all like this:


    LIE: Trump says that—despite growing up in the "church" of Norman Vincent Beale's now-infamous philosophy of "positive thinking"—he's equally committed to always seeing the downside of a scenario.

    TRUTH: Trump aides' books confirm he won't hear bad news—and it endangers America.

     

    How on earth does that so-called "truth" contradict Trump's assertion at all, much less make it a "lie"? And saying Trump "won't hear bad news" in reality means he doesn't ACCEPT bad news, and he tells you to go fix it. Which is what CEOs do. But the butt-hurt "aide" writing the tell-all book whines that Trump won't listen. As in, won't listen to my mealy-mouthed excuses.

    I'd say about 95% of what the media calls a Trump "lie" is precisely this kind of prevaricating bullshit. And half the time Abramson is using an actual lie (but a widely touted media lie) to contradict Trump.

    Yet the number of Americans who believe the media's cheap carny act is simply amazing. Corvinus being a prime, in-house example.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Tusk, @RudyM

    I’d say about 95% of what the media calls a Trump “lie” is precisely this kind of prevaricating bullshit. And half the time Abramson is using an actual lie (but a widely touted media lie) to contradict Trump.

    Yet the number of Americans who believe the media’s cheap carny act is simply amazing. Corvinus being a prime, in-house example.

    Exactly right.

    The stupidity of the leftwing media — and presumably our pal Corvinus — takes many forms, but noting beats their inability to understand the difference between malevolent mendacity and easy exaggeration.

    Outstanding smack down. Will he slink back under his rock?

  90. @Almost Missouri
    @Corvinus

    Did you read your "two sources"? They both say the the same thing I did: there appears to be an increase in cases (not deaths), primarily among the young and less vulnerable. Since both the UN and NPR are incompetent, corrupt shill organizations, they both draw the wrong conclusion from this observation. They should be happy that inoculation is spreading among those who can handle it. Instead they proceed to demand that everyone return to house arrest to stretch the epidemic and attendant damage as long as possible.


    Comment 7 is rich with data.
     
    One of your defining characteristics is data paucity, which is why few readers, other than the bored, such as myself, bother engaging with you. Then there is your hypocrisy. You demand others read your shovel-loaded links (which you clearly haven't read nor understood), yet you haven't read my links or anyone else's.

    Nevertheless, from Comment 7:


    Experts say that’s because clinicians have become more skilled and are deploying new tactics as they learn more about the course of covid-19; some are using ventilators more selectively
     

     
    In other words, clinicians are using ventilators less, exactly as Sailer said. So you not only don't read anyone else's links, you don't even read your own links even as you post extracts from them!

    It would be funny if it weren't so pitiful.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    “Did you read your “two sources”?…Since both the UN and NPR are incompetent, corrupt shill organizations, they both draw the wrong conclusion from this observation.”

    No need for quotes. The sources are legitimate. And, right on cue, you automatically assume that any source that runs contrary to your position is incompetent. I get it. Life is much easier for you if you do not have to confront inconvenient hate facts.

    “They both say the the same thing I did: there appears to be an increase in cases (not deaths), primarily among the young and less vulnerable.”

    Thank you for tacitly admitting I provided data. It took a major step in the right direction. Hopefully, you will not back track.

    “You demand others read your shovel-loaded links (which you clearly haven’t read nor understood), yet you haven’t read my links or anyone else’s.”

    The reality is I read links, those I procure myself or those who kindly supplied them. Then, I take time to respond. That is called discourse. The more you know…

    “In other words, clinicians are using ventilators less, exactly as Sailer said.”

    Mr. Sailer incorrectly characterized health professionals insistence on using ventilators in the early stages of Covid 19 as being “obsessive”. That was my bone of contention. Try to pay closer attention.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    @Corvinus


    Mr. Sailer incorrectly characterized health professionals[sic] insistence
     
    Oh, of course, it's a completely, 100% objective question if something is an "obsession" or not, which you've answered conclusively. Pat yourself on the back. I like the term "health professionals." You expect these kind of euphemisms to come from low-status professions, garbage men and teachers and the like. But doctors have traditionally been a high-status profession, hopefully people will start waking up to their crap.

    https://www.cato-unbound.org/2007/09/10/robin-hanson/cut-medicine-half

    Replies: @JackOH, @Corvinus

  91. @Almost Missouri
    Since a vaccine is largely illusory, the only real exit strategy is herd immunity (or the fact the all epidemics just peter out eventually even if no one is really knows why). Therefore, ideally we want high case rates but with low death rates: most everyone gets infected, recovers, is inoculated and we move on. Astonishingly, in spite of the incompetence and rancor at every level, this seems to be more or less happening. We now have a lot of cases, but relatively few deaths. Of course, the case counts are extremely artifacted by various testing regimes, so the case numbers are absurdly unreliable. But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before.

    And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result without multi-trillion dollar, riot-spawning, famine-inducing, nation-shaking lockdowns. As even the pro-authoritarian NYT's figures show, all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June. What are any of them still doing in lockdown? Good question. Apparently their authorities just like it that way. If the authorities were actually using science rather than politics to decide policy, they would not be locking down during warmer months, and probably not be locking down at all. Social distance, masks, whatever: sure. Mass house arrest: insanity ... or malign conspiracy.

    Replies: @Corvinus, @Polynikes, @Chrisnonymous, @Buddy Stevenson, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Alexander Turok

    all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June

    I’m just like an NBA star. Sometimes I throw the ball through the hoop, sometimes I miss.

    • Replies: @gabriel alberton
    @Alexander Turok

    What numbers (cases, deaths, curve shapes), regarding those countries, would we expect to see if the lockdowns weren't/hadn't been effective?

  92. @peterike

    NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?

     

    Feh. It was over in NYC by May. They could have had a 100% re-opening at that point. Instead, Cuomo keeps moving the goalposts, and his utterly arbitrary "Stages" have been reduced to meaninglessness. He just does whatever he feels like. Yet follow his twitter: every time he needlessly extends a lockdown, his feed is filled with people thanking him for "keeping us safe!" Along with a much smaller percentage of dissenters calling him out.

    It's a sad situation in the Big Apple. The city is run by a genuine moron in DeBlasio, and the State by a genuine monster in Cuomo. Meanwhile, 80% of restaurants and bars were not able to pay their full rent in July. 80%! Yet in-restaurant dining fades ever more into the distant future with no date in site. And deaths in the city are now down to a few a day. I kid you not, it's like 2 or 3 a day. And we are far below every other "milestone" measurement. 15-20K tests a day with a positive rate of 1%.

    Yet the rules remain!

    Replies: @eD, @Kaz, @The Wild Geese Howard, @VinnyVette

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-new-york-city-zero-covid-deaths-three-days/

    They’re terrified to go back to what they were seeing a few months ago where the situation was completely out of control.

    Now they’re on par with other countries where they have an average of less than 10 deaths a week..

    NY coffers are hurting right now, but after the surge in deaths they experienced from April-May leaders feel it’s worth it to stay shut down.

    Remember NY leadership was happy to downplay COVID concerns until it hit them like a truck. I don’t think it’s some grand conspiracy, they’re actually scared.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Kaz


    NY coffers are hurting right now, but after the surge in deaths they experienced from April-May leaders feel it’s worth it to stay shut down.
     
    Let's just totally ignore Cuomo's March 25th order forcing nursing homes to accept hospital patients without regard for their Cv-19 status:

    Andrew Cuomo’s big lie on nursing homes and The Post

    https://nypost.com/2020/06/19/andrew-cuomos-big-lie-on-nursing-homes-and-the-post/
  93. @Anon
    @Corvinus

    Smugness personified. I guess some people aren't as repelled by smugness as they should be, because they want to be part of the smug crowd.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    “Smugness personified. I guess some people aren’t as repelled by smugness as they should be, because they want to be part of the smug crowd.”

    Well, you certainly are front and center in this regard!

  94. @Reg Cæsar

    ...Alabama which has no canyons.
     
    The “Grand Canyon Of The East” Is Right Here In Alabama… And It’s Spectacular

    THE BEST Alabama Canyons (with Photos)

    WELCOME to DISMALS CANYON: National Natural Landmark


    Dismalites (glowworms)
    Past twilight the canyon lights up with tiny bioluminescent creatures we call Dismalites. These "glowworms" require a select habitat to survive and are unique to only a few places on Earth. They are “close cousins” of the rare glowworms found in Australia and New Zealand.

    Guided Night Tours allow visitors to see these unique insects.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9dWye5fEeLU

    "We are experiencing an extremely high volume of calls this season. If you get a busy signal please continue to call back. Sorry for the inconvenience but a "human" answers every call not a "robot" or "machine" during business hours! "
     

    BTW, did everyone celebrate Obama's Birthday yesterday? It was also Coast Guard Day, and the birthday of one of the Brimelow children.

    Replies: @S. Anonyia, @Bert, @JMcG, @AnotherDad

    Web-spinning predatory non-luminescent larvae of related fungus gnats are found in caves of Jamaica and Belize and in the wind-protected understory of Central American high canopy wet forests.
    More than you want to know, I’m sure.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Bert


    Web-spinning predatory luminescent larvae of related fungus gnats are found in caves of Jamaica and Belize and in the wind-protected understory of Central American high canopy wet forests.
     
    Thanks. I'll keep that in mind next time I go hunting tamandua.


    https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V0C8ZjrmQ0Y/XDNWQY5MCfI/AAAAAAAAHi0/CevqAM4Lm0YxG-NGvjP2fjilMs9HxhBMwCLcBGAs/s1600/Northern%2BTamandua%2B%2528Tamandua%2Bmexicana%2529.jpg

    And sloth.


    https://www.textbooktravel.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Central-American-Wildlife-Featured-Image.jpg

    Replies: @Bert

  95. @Reg Cæsar

    ...Alabama which has no canyons.
     
    The “Grand Canyon Of The East” Is Right Here In Alabama… And It’s Spectacular

    THE BEST Alabama Canyons (with Photos)

    WELCOME to DISMALS CANYON: National Natural Landmark


    Dismalites (glowworms)
    Past twilight the canyon lights up with tiny bioluminescent creatures we call Dismalites. These "glowworms" require a select habitat to survive and are unique to only a few places on Earth. They are “close cousins” of the rare glowworms found in Australia and New Zealand.

    Guided Night Tours allow visitors to see these unique insects.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9dWye5fEeLU

    "We are experiencing an extremely high volume of calls this season. If you get a busy signal please continue to call back. Sorry for the inconvenience but a "human" answers every call not a "robot" or "machine" during business hours! "
     

    BTW, did everyone celebrate Obama's Birthday yesterday? It was also Coast Guard Day, and the birthday of one of the Brimelow children.

    Replies: @S. Anonyia, @Bert, @JMcG, @AnotherDad

    Please, the Grand Canyon of the East is, of course, near Wellsboro, Pennsylvania. It has Pine Creek at the bottom rather than the mighty Colorado, but other than that, you’d be hard pressed to know you weren’t looking at the real thing.

  96. @Corvinus
    "As you’ll recall, it was only at the very end of March that a few brave NYC emergency room doctors began to speak out against the ventilator obsession of the medical community..."

    I didn't realize that professionals calling for the use of medical equipment during the early stages of a novel virus was an "obsession". It's more like physicians implementing protocols and procedures, some on the fly, that will eventually be ironed out.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html


    Experts say that’s because clinicians have become more skilled and are deploying new tactics as they learn more about the course of covid-19; some are using ventilators more selectively; many hospitals are less overwhelmed than when the virus first inundated Wuhan, parts of Italy and New York City; and early data on ventilation and death did not present a true picture.
     
    "NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?"

    Weasely phrasing on your part. Perhaps you could supply the studies that led you to draw your conclusion, for NYC **could be** or **may be** closer to herd immunity in and of itself.

    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200731/Research-suggests-New-York-City-may-have-reached-coronavirus-herd-immunity-threshold.aspx


    Disclaimer--medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
     
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1

    These findings have profound consequences for the governance of the current pandemic given that some populations may be close to achieving herd immunity despite being under more or less strict social distancing measures.
     
    "On the other hand, it’s still unclear how bad the long-term effects of CV will be."

    Maybe. Then again, maybe not.

    https://www.hackensackmeridianhealth.org/HealthU/2020/07/29/what-are-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19


    A recent study from the University of Frankford in Germany showed abnormal heart findings in more than 75% of people studied who had recently recovered from COVID-19. A considerable majority of patients in the study were found to have had inflammation in the heart and muscle lining.
     
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

    Researchers are now facing a familiar COVID-19 narrative: trying to make sense of a mystifying illness. Distinct features of the virus, including its propensity to cause widespread inflammation and blood clotting, could play a role in the assortment of concerns now surfacing. “We’re seeing a really complex group of ongoing symptoms,” says Rachael Evans, a pulmonologist at the University of Leicester.
     
    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-term-health-effects-covid-19

    A key question is what is causing the recurring symptoms – i.e. whether it is reactivation of a persistent infection, reinfection (which seems unlikely based on current data), or whether the person has become infected with another virus or even bacteria as their immune system is still recovering.
     
    "Since then, 9 notable personages have died in the U.S., most famously 74-year-old Herman Cain."

    The diagnosis came more than a week after he had attended a rally for President Trump in Tulsa. He was on a ventilator before he died. Must have slipped by the (alleged) pattern recognizer.

    "It turned out that this Hopi science Twitter account which would pile on in support of MeToo activist BethAnn McLaughlin was a concoction of McLaughlin."

    Cagey, Mr. Sailer. Throw a bone to your die-hard supporters during tin cup month. At least you remain committed to acknowledging that Covid-19 is a viable health threat. Cue the deniers...

    Replies: @Noah, @Matt Buckalew, @gabriel alberton, @Alexander Turok

    Tin cup month is over, I’m sure Steve’s wondering how much of it was due to the general economic crisis versus him being in this cat-state on corona.

    It’d be interesting to compare the trend in donations to VDARE vs. NRO.

  97. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Almost Missouri

    "But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before."

    Case counts are up because facediaper use is up. People load up their diapers with bacteria and virums and touch their faces much more than normal whilst bediapered. As Americans diaper up, case counts soar xponentially.

    Bottom line: face diapers increase disease and must be banned with hefty fines and imprisonment.

    Replies: @jon, @dfordoom

    Case counts are up because facediaper use is up. People load up their diapers with bacteria and virums and touch their faces much more than normal whilst bediapered. As Americans diaper up, case counts soar xponentially.

    This is just made up bullshit.
    I live in Korea, we had our first documented positive case on the same day that the US had theirs. We were also the first big hot-spot outside of China, with a big outbreak in a secretive cult/church in Daegu. The whole “pandemic” was a short lived scare and everything is pretty close to back to normal now. Total deaths are still below 300. We’ve been below 50 new cases a day for months now, and Daegu, the original center of the outbreak, hasn’t had a single case in weeks (for per capita comparison of stats, Korea has a population around 50 million).
    Everyone here has been wearing masks since the start, and everyone is still wearing them now. The government even set up a mask rationing system where everyone could get a certain number a week to prevent hoarding and to encourage everyone to mask up.
    All of the countries that are like Korea that have been wearing masks since the start are doing better at this than the countries that don’t:

    Countries with early adoption of face masks showed modest coronavirus infection rates, researchers say

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/countries-early-adoption-face-masks-modest-coronavirus-infection-rates

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @jon

    "This is just made up bullshit.
    I live in Korea" blah blah blah

    Duh. I'm just trolling alls y'alls - thanks for swallowing so thirstily my putrid bait!

    Case counts are up xponentially because testing is up xponentially. Duh.

    Diaper up!

    , @The Last Real Calvinist
    @jon

    Here's the thing, though.

    I live in Hong Kong, where the COVID experience has been much like S Korea's, i.e. an initial outbreak, then quick control and virtual elimination via moderate social distancing and mask-wearing.

    This made everybody here feel nice and smug, but there's a little problem that's popped up recently. After a couple of months of almost-normal life, we've had a new outbreak, brought in mostly via sailors and other frequent travelers who were for some odd reason completely exempted from HK's pretty stringent quarantine measures.

    Anyway, for the past 2-3 weeks, each day we've been getting one or two deaths, and consistently 75-150 new cases.

    In the greater scheme of things, this isn't bad at all. But in May and June many people here assumed HK could remain completely COVID-free, so now they're in a panic. What would seem mild in most other places seems like a disaster here.

    So we're now on a much more hard-core social distancing regimen than we were back in March. Restaurants are only open for breakfast and lunch, most people are working from home again, and so on. It's far more disheartening to have done the semi-lockdown, then be set free for a couple of months, and then have to go back to the mattresses again.

    I agree with you that masks work. They certainly worked here, at least for a while, in conjunction with fairly mild social distancing.

    But in the broader scheme of things, this 'virus-free' goal is likely backing your country into a corner -- you can't socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever. Sooner or later the virus is going to break loose again. At that point, I think any number of places may wish they'd simply have done a Sweden, and gotten it over with.

    Replies: @Anon, @HA, @jon

  98. @fredtard
    @Corvinus

    The problem with your "arguments from authority" is that I have a complete lack of trust in, and therefore no fear resulting from, the messaging coming from big pharma and its corrupted sponsees. These sponsees include heretofore respected groups such as medical universities and research institutions, the captured revolving-door regulatory agencies, and the entire corporate media. Big, BIG money and power is plenty of incentive to mislead the public, if not flat-out lie. Could be a component of my mid-life crisis is delayed rebellion against my parents, both of whom were pharmacists (they both think this COVID 19 stuff is highly suspect too, and they're in their 80s.

    I take care of myself. I'm not fat, and I'm white and get plenty of sun. Otherwise, I'd be working hard on losing weight, and I'd be supplementing with Vit D. Of course, none of the high-vis public health officials whose primary interest is our collective well-being, or so they say, have been discussing these simple ways to improve our chances against any and all respiratory viruses. They're selling fear, remdesivir, and hopium vaccines. Oh, and submissive compliance.

    You may say "What a selfish asshole! He obviously doesn't give two shits about others, especially the most vulnerable." I'd like to think I'm helpful and useful to others, but maybe you're better than me. That must feel good. Hey, if you want to do something selfless to prove your superior altruism, I'd suggest you get on the NIH website and sign up to be a volunteer in the Moderna/NIH Phase 3 trial. They need 30,000 volunteers. Now that would be useful. I won't because I believe, based on in-depth knowledge, that most vaccines do much more harm (auto-immunity, neuro-inflammation, asthma, allergies, etc.) than good.

    I would, however, expose myself to a person with active COVID and then self-isolate....if I knew anyone or could find anyone who has it. No luck so far...

    Replies: @Corvinus

    “The problem with your “arguments from authority” is that I have a complete lack of trust in, and therefore no fear resulting from, the messaging coming from big pharma and its corrupted sponsees.”

    See, it is virtually impossible to argue with those people who cling on this “Fake News” or “The media lies” or “Distrust experts” meme. Any fact you bring as an argument, they immediately attack the SOURCE, rather than the substance. Thus, it is easy to deny there is ANY evidence at all. This phenomenon has been brewing for a long time, and it has reached a critical mass at our point in world history. Unfortunately, this leads more people to become ignorant by facilitating echo chambers and confirmation bias. Rather than yell at the top of one’s lungs “Fake News” when they read a mainstream or alternative media story, and immediately discount everything, people ought look CRITICALLY at the facts, consider any bias, read other sources on the issue, and then draw their own conclusions, realizing that those conclusions will require verification from valid sources when challenged.

    “I’d like to think I’m helpful and useful to others, but maybe you’re better than me. That must feel good.”

    That is a strawman.

    “Hey, if you want to do something selfless to prove your superior altruism…”

    That would be another strawman on your part.

    “I’d suggest you get on the NIH website and sign up to be a volunteer in the Moderna/NIH Phase 3 trial. They need 30,000 volunteers. Now that would be useful.”

    Thanks. I’ll investigate.

    “I won’t because I believe, based on in-depth knowledge, that most vaccines do much more harm (auto-immunity, neuro-inflammation, asthma, allergies, etc.) than good.”

    You are entitled to your opinion. Food for thought–Perhaps that in-depth knowledge is the result of confirmation bias.

    • Replies: @fredtard
    @Corvinus

    Yeah, those were strawmen. Not fair, sorry.

    In my own defense, I am critical, if nothing else. Ask my wife.

    And I rationalize, and self-delude, and project. Being self-aware, I'll admit I have been, may be now, and certainly will be wrong again, about many things. Lots of people have a harder time with that than I do at this point in my journey. Funny, but many, if not all, of the things I believe most fervently now are things that I've recently (in the last of my six decades) become more informed about, and that contrast sharply with what I believed, was certain of, up until I didn't. I think I have a bit of resentment over being lied to all those years, which contributes to my cynicism. That vaccines do more harm than good is an example.

    But I'm beyond arguing the facts with almost everyone, because I've observed that I have a very poor chance of changing anyone's mind. Best I can do is create a spark of curiosity which leads to someone doing their own research. We all like to change our own minds, not have some know-it-all do it for us.

  99. @Redneck farmer
    @Buffalo Joe

    OT: You've got a great classical station where you're at Joe. Wish we had one like it in NE Ohio!

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @kaganovitch

    Red, where are you in NE Ohio? I have three children in the Buckeye state and a grand daughter at THE Ohio State.

  100. I’ve been harboring an unsubstantiated pet theory that Asia and the EU will vault ahead of the United States in 2021 with respect to political credibility and economic muscle. Courtesy of America’s current moral chaos, and its confused and extremely expensive response to COVID-19.

  101. @The Alarmist
    @Buffalo Joe

    Survival rate from what? Corona-Chan, BLM, Cancel Culture, Trump v. Biden? Talk about co-morbidities.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    Alarmist, you too funny. The chance of surviving an Air BnB party in LA. Or attending a block party in Chicago.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Buffalo Joe

    I was in Beirut in '83, and it was a blast, but ChiTown and LA parties are places I'd prefer to avoid.

  102. The day with the largest number of test was July 24 with 930k tests. Testings has been less than 800k every day since July 30. I suspect that some of the decrease in cases is due to a decrease in testing and especially a decrease in testing due to very hot weather and due to a tropical storm affecting the east coast of the U.S.

  103. @Bert
    Cases are dropping because the percent infected necessary for herd immunity is much lower than the incompetent epidemiologists predicted from their simplistic modeling. Nicotine may protect against infection. Vitamins D and B9 almost certainly protect. Primed T-cells from recent infections of common cold coronaviruses seem to protect. The probability of death when infected is lower because of more recent use of corticosteroids in many hospitals and hydroxychloroquine in outpatient settings.

    Replies: @jon

    Nicotine may protect against infection.

    Mr. Burns right all along:

    And it seems Woody Allen may have been a Nostradamus:

  104. @another fred
    @Buffalo Joe

    The cases statistics are so clouded that any number given is going to be suspect. The one thing we know is that deaths are extremely low for the young and very high for the elderly. In spite of the age factor there still seems to be some genetic susceptibility involved, especially for those younger than 65 or 75.

    I have no doubt that this is a very serious disease for those who are susceptible, but it is obvious that susceptibility varies widely.

    I really wish more authorities would publish statistics at least as detailed as Cook County, IL did a couple of months ago (preferably more), but there seems to be a reluctance to do so. The way they are treating information makes one feel a bit like a mushroom, i.e. being fed shit in the dark.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @prosa123, @Kyle

    Another, thank you for the reply and the old mushroom remark, a classic.

  105. Is Herman Cain really more famous than Joe Diffie, among the population at large?

  106. @Buffalo Joe
    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Redneck farmer, @another fred, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @botazefa

    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    You just have to divide the number of infections by the number of deaths caused by those infections to get the answer. That should be pretty straightforward.

    The number of infections could be determined by doing regular testing on randomized samples of the population. The deaths caused by the virus could be determined by doing a pathology review on a random sample of people who died after testing positive in order to determine whether it was the virus or something else that was the cause of death. (Or, more sophisticated, the percentage by which the virus increased mortality in the sample).

    But instead, it’s an endless data dump of useless numbers. The alleged number of “cases” is just who tested positive and is totally dependent on how many tests are given and the non-random selection of who gets tested. It’s a complete joke. The “deaths” number is equally useless as it’s just people who died “with,” and not necessarily “because of” the virus.

    I don’t know where all the smart people have gone that should be on these issues. But the media and public health bureaucracy are just running wild with nonsense numbers. It’s a truly amazing mass delusion.

    • Replies: @ES
    @Hypnotoad666


    You just have to divide the number of infections by the number of deaths caused by those infections to get the answer. That should be pretty straightforward.
     
    Other way round. You're right though, that the problem is we really don't know the size of the denominator, the number of infections.
  107. @peterike

    NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?

     

    Feh. It was over in NYC by May. They could have had a 100% re-opening at that point. Instead, Cuomo keeps moving the goalposts, and his utterly arbitrary "Stages" have been reduced to meaninglessness. He just does whatever he feels like. Yet follow his twitter: every time he needlessly extends a lockdown, his feed is filled with people thanking him for "keeping us safe!" Along with a much smaller percentage of dissenters calling him out.

    It's a sad situation in the Big Apple. The city is run by a genuine moron in DeBlasio, and the State by a genuine monster in Cuomo. Meanwhile, 80% of restaurants and bars were not able to pay their full rent in July. 80%! Yet in-restaurant dining fades ever more into the distant future with no date in site. And deaths in the city are now down to a few a day. I kid you not, it's like 2 or 3 a day. And we are far below every other "milestone" measurement. 15-20K tests a day with a positive rate of 1%.

    Yet the rules remain!

    Replies: @eD, @Kaz, @The Wild Geese Howard, @VinnyVette

    Instead, Cuomo keeps moving the goalposts, and his utterly arbitrary “Stages” have been reduced to meaninglessness. He just does whatever he feels like.

    I like his quarantine list that fails to follow the posted numeric NYS guidelines for a state to be included. It’s funny how the states not on the list are the ones with lunatic lib govs that are colluding with Cuomo, likely at the behest of the CCP.

    Yet follow his twitter: every time he needlessly extends a lockdown, his feed is filled with people thanking him for “keeping us safe!”

    I’ve seen this as well and it is quite pitiful, as fellow commenter theMann has pointed out.

    Recent polls indicate the percentage of the pitiful out there is anywhere from 50% to 75%.

  108. @Buffalo Joe
    @The Alarmist

    Alarmist, you too funny. The chance of surviving an Air BnB party in LA. Or attending a block party in Chicago.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    I was in Beirut in ’83, and it was a blast, but ChiTown and LA parties are places I’d prefer to avoid.

  109. @Corvinus
    @fredtard

    "The problem with your “arguments from authority” is that I have a complete lack of trust in, and therefore no fear resulting from, the messaging coming from big pharma and its corrupted sponsees."

    See, it is virtually impossible to argue with those people who cling on this “Fake News” or “The media lies” or "Distrust experts" meme. Any fact you bring as an argument, they immediately attack the SOURCE, rather than the substance. Thus, it is easy to deny there is ANY evidence at all. This phenomenon has been brewing for a long time, and it has reached a critical mass at our point in world history. Unfortunately, this leads more people to become ignorant by facilitating echo chambers and confirmation bias. Rather than yell at the top of one’s lungs “Fake News” when they read a mainstream or alternative media story, and immediately discount everything, people ought look CRITICALLY at the facts, consider any bias, read other sources on the issue, and then draw their own conclusions, realizing that those conclusions will require verification from valid sources when challenged.

    "I’d like to think I’m helpful and useful to others, but maybe you’re better than me. That must feel good."

    That is a strawman.

    "Hey, if you want to do something selfless to prove your superior altruism..."

    That would be another strawman on your part.

    "I’d suggest you get on the NIH website and sign up to be a volunteer in the Moderna/NIH Phase 3 trial. They need 30,000 volunteers. Now that would be useful."

    Thanks. I'll investigate.

    "I won’t because I believe, based on in-depth knowledge, that most vaccines do much more harm (auto-immunity, neuro-inflammation, asthma, allergies, etc.) than good."

    You are entitled to your opinion. Food for thought--Perhaps that in-depth knowledge is the result of confirmation bias.

    Replies: @fredtard

    Yeah, those were strawmen. Not fair, sorry.

    In my own defense, I am critical, if nothing else. Ask my wife.

    And I rationalize, and self-delude, and project. Being self-aware, I’ll admit I have been, may be now, and certainly will be wrong again, about many things. Lots of people have a harder time with that than I do at this point in my journey. Funny, but many, if not all, of the things I believe most fervently now are things that I’ve recently (in the last of my six decades) become more informed about, and that contrast sharply with what I believed, was certain of, up until I didn’t. I think I have a bit of resentment over being lied to all those years, which contributes to my cynicism. That vaccines do more harm than good is an example.

    But I’m beyond arguing the facts with almost everyone, because I’ve observed that I have a very poor chance of changing anyone’s mind. Best I can do is create a spark of curiosity which leads to someone doing their own research. We all like to change our own minds, not have some know-it-all do it for us.

  110. anonymous[117] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr. Anon
    I liked how that graph of deaths had that explanatory note about the yellow bars "These are days with a data reporting anomaly". And that reported COVID death in Florida that was actually due to a motorcycle accident? Was that a reporting anomaly too? How about the gun-shot victim who was chalked up as a "COVID death". Based on everything we know, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are likely all over-reported.

    Still it is a shame that COVID is robbing us of the best-and-brightest imaginary lesbian Hopi geologists.

    Replies: @anonymous

    We all miss They, don’t we.

  111. @another fred
    @Buffalo Joe

    The cases statistics are so clouded that any number given is going to be suspect. The one thing we know is that deaths are extremely low for the young and very high for the elderly. In spite of the age factor there still seems to be some genetic susceptibility involved, especially for those younger than 65 or 75.

    I have no doubt that this is a very serious disease for those who are susceptible, but it is obvious that susceptibility varies widely.

    I really wish more authorities would publish statistics at least as detailed as Cook County, IL did a couple of months ago (preferably more), but there seems to be a reluctance to do so. The way they are treating information makes one feel a bit like a mushroom, i.e. being fed shit in the dark.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @prosa123, @Kyle

    Even among people over age 90 the survival rate is 75%.

  112. @Redneck farmer
    @Buffalo Joe

    OT: You've got a great classical station where you're at Joe. Wish we had one like it in NE Ohio!

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @kaganovitch

    OT: You’ve got a great classical station where you’re at Joe. Wish we had one like it in NE Ohio!

    What kind of Redneck listens to classical music anyway? Years ago I had an office on site at a big hospitality kitchen in Manhattan. One of the chefs -a Jamaican- asked me what station i’m listening to, so I told him WQXR it’s a classical music station . He said “Classical,mon, like Bob Marley?”

  113. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    "And so, the pivot is now towards sequelae."

    Yes. When flu season begins again mid-September in earnest, all respiratory illness and death will be attributed to BULLSHIT-2020 (as it is now) and Democratic states will shutter and demand vote-by-mail to fraud in Joe Diapers.

    I finally know a man whose death was attributed to BULLSHIT-2020. He was 85 and fought pneumonia for two months. The hospital deemed it death by BS-2020 for the coronabonu$$$. No, he died of pneumonia.

    Hoax.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

    I am not saying the virus does not exist – feeble people died from it. Also, it is common for a viral infection to turn bacterial. However, if you are a researcher in, say, oncology, you have to chose between risking your paycheck vs “covid-related research”. Of course, you will do covid-related research, and, if you try hard, you will “find something”.

    Remember the “cytokine storm of childhood covid”? Maybe it happened in three children, maybe it was the coronavirus, but it was so infrequent that I have yet to hear any guidelines discussing it seriously. When the numbers are so small, there is no difference between falsified data and one-in-a-million real complication.

    But you can’t create new virologists overnight. If you dish more money on the researchers you have, you get results from whatever is their field. In utu’s example, you get (likely negligible) kidney findings.

  114. @Lot
    @Captain Tripps

    “ Sounds almost exactly how a cold runs through me (5-7 days, loss of taste/smell, but more of a wet cough/congestion).”

    Coronaviruses cause about a sixth of common colds, so we’ve all had them many times.

    I’ve never had a loss of taste or smell before.

    Replies: @Elsewhere, @peterike

    I’ve never had a loss of taste or smell before.

    I have. Once almost ten years ago from a cold or flu. It was frightening to me because it was a total loss for about two weeks. I wasn’t sure if my sense of smell would come back, and I really appreciate smell. I almost cried when I suddenly smelled onions again.

  115. @Corvinus
    @Almost Missouri

    "Did you read your “two sources”?...Since both the UN and NPR are incompetent, corrupt shill organizations, they both draw the wrong conclusion from this observation."

    No need for quotes. The sources are legitimate. And, right on cue, you automatically assume that any source that runs contrary to your position is incompetent. I get it. Life is much easier for you if you do not have to confront inconvenient hate facts.

    "They both say the the same thing I did: there appears to be an increase in cases (not deaths), primarily among the young and less vulnerable."

    Thank you for tacitly admitting I provided data. It took a major step in the right direction. Hopefully, you will not back track.

    "You demand others read your shovel-loaded links (which you clearly haven’t read nor understood), yet you haven’t read my links or anyone else’s."

    The reality is I read links, those I procure myself or those who kindly supplied them. Then, I take time to respond. That is called discourse. The more you know...

    "In other words, clinicians are using ventilators less, exactly as Sailer said."

    Mr. Sailer incorrectly characterized health professionals insistence on using ventilators in the early stages of Covid 19 as being "obsessive". That was my bone of contention. Try to pay closer attention.

    Replies: @Alexander Turok

    Mr. Sailer incorrectly characterized health professionals[sic] insistence

    Oh, of course, it’s a completely, 100% objective question if something is an “obsession” or not, which you’ve answered conclusively. Pat yourself on the back. I like the term “health professionals.” You expect these kind of euphemisms to come from low-status professions, garbage men and teachers and the like. But doctors have traditionally been a high-status profession, hopefully people will start waking up to their crap.

    https://www.cato-unbound.org/2007/09/10/robin-hanson/cut-medicine-half

    • Replies: @JackOH
    @Alexander Turok

    Alexander, thanks for that important reference to the Hanson article, which I read about the time it came out. I was floored by his intellectual courage, which is shared by very few. Maybe the late Rheinhardt (sp?) at Princeton, Oberlander at the U. of NC, Shannon Brownlee, a few others are willing to allow the whole damned edifice of American health is wobbly by design. Nothing to be done by reasoned debate. The money's too big.

    , @Corvinus
    @Alexander Turok

    "Oh, of course, it’s a completely, 100% objective question if something is an “obsession” or not, which you’ve answered conclusively. Pat yourself on the back."

    Health professionals in certain locations were inundated by Covid 19 patients. Being a novel virus, they went through which types of care options would be most appropriate. At the time, decisions were made to emphasize the use of ventilators. Later on, as health professionals became more cognizant of Covid 19, they made changes in treatment. I suppose in retrospect that would constitute an obsession--to keep patients alive.

    "But doctors have traditionally been a high-status profession, hopefully people will start waking up to their crap."

    The problems of the health care industry are a separate issue. I would like to see to what extent matters have changed, given that the contents of the source you provided is 13 years old.

  116. @Buffalo Joe
    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    Replies: @The Alarmist, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Redneck farmer, @another fred, @Anon, @Hypnotoad666, @botazefa

    what is the survivability rate in the USA?

    You’re alive. Coronavirus is hella contagious. What more data does one need?

  117. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has confirmed that the Chinese bioweapon just isn’t working out as promised by using emergency powers to ukasize a load of garbage about race indoctrination, along the same lines demonstrated by the Seattle city government. Since Whitmer’s understanding of “public health crisis” is “I get to be queen,” we do not yet know all the damaging extraconstititional she plans by this trick, but already there is talk about mandatory classes for state government employees.
    https://www.wxyz.com/news/gov-whitmer-declares-racism-as-public-health-crisis-in-michigan
    “Public Health” is an odious, un-American concept, conceived of by political operators and not doctors during the horrible Wilson administration as a power grab. This current mess illustrates perfectly why health should be handled by varied doctors and not, say, Ethiopean terrorists.

  118. @Matt Buckalew
    @Corvinus

    Have you fucked in the past twelve months? Be honest.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    LOL. I say, you do have a way with words. I mean, you are allegedly a 6’2, alt right Catholic jock who attended an Ivy League school and has a trust fund. But anyone can be anything on the Internet, right, Chateau Heartiste admirer?

    • Replies: @Matt Buckalew
    @Corvinus

    Is that anime? I’m sorry I was too busy playing sports and getting laid in high school.

    I’m gonna put that down as a no you haven’t fucked in the past twelve months.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  119. @anonymous
    I think it's wishful thinking caused by the fear that if the virus doesn't recede then Trump won't be re-elected. The country isn't serious about curbing the spread and most states haven't yet seen a steep rise in cases. There's no reason to think the virus just went away and won't surge in those states. I think it's time to consider a 2-month second national lockdown to bring the virus under control at least for the sake of normal voting in November. If the vote is blemished by large scale complaints of irregularities and Trump is re-elected I fear there will be nationwide violent unrest. The long term consequences of that could be continuous violent clashes for years and destabilizing secession movements.

    Replies: @gabriel alberton, @peterike, @Hibernian

    I think it’s wishful thinking caused by the fear that if the virus doesn’t recede then Trump won’t be re-elected.

    You think the reports that cases are now decreasing in the states they had just surged is wishful thinking? Wishful thinking by whom? Sailer? The CDC? What do you mean?

    most states haven’t yet seen a steep rise in cases.

    The most populous states have already been there, done that. Mention one which didn’t.

    If the vote is blemished by large scale complaints of irregularities and Trump is re-elected I fear there will be nationwide violent unrest.

    And? I doubt those two things will both happen. They are roughly mutually exclusive. Or do you think Biden and the Democrats will claim there was electoral fraud? I thought that was a right-wing fantasy. Did I think wrong? How would a fraud that favors the Republicans take place? The only thing that the Democrats would complain about that could be taken as an irregularity would be Trump postponing the election, or declaring they aren’t going to be held at all (Trump then promptly livestreaming him dancing with a giant globe). I very much doubt he’ll actually do that, even if he really wants to. Note that winning through the electoral college while losing the popular vote (again) is not an irregularity — it’s part of the rules.

  120. @eD
    @peterike

    The lockdowns hitting hardest in the cities, and in blue areas in general, raises an interesting point.

    Right now I'm told suburban real estate sales are booming, but my source is Reddit comments so I am taking this with bags of salt.

    Since the deal with central cities like New York is that you basically trade space, and the ability to isolate yourself from people you may not like, for employment opportunities and the ability to do stuff, obviously if you keep banning businesses in cities and not in the countryside, people will leave the cities. This is happening now, and I'm not able to figure out the play here.

    Either this is another effort to clear out the cities before unleashing the nukes, or this will be extended back to the countryside eventually. And in the USA, people in the country being armed may have something to do with it.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Agree and two points — a lot of infection was from urban people either not following the guidelines (like three-hundred-black-body black block parties) or not being able to (because they live in a city; one early death in Detroit was a bus driver unable to force customers to wear masks), and, increasingly, what the hell city job is anyone going to get, let alone what city job makes a bug’s life worth living?
    These idiots gambled their home turf and lost; cities will suffer some diminution, though not what movie theaters have coming soon.

  121. @anonymous
    I think it's wishful thinking caused by the fear that if the virus doesn't recede then Trump won't be re-elected. The country isn't serious about curbing the spread and most states haven't yet seen a steep rise in cases. There's no reason to think the virus just went away and won't surge in those states. I think it's time to consider a 2-month second national lockdown to bring the virus under control at least for the sake of normal voting in November. If the vote is blemished by large scale complaints of irregularities and Trump is re-elected I fear there will be nationwide violent unrest. The long term consequences of that could be continuous violent clashes for years and destabilizing secession movements.

    Replies: @gabriel alberton, @peterike, @Hibernian

    Nicely done. That’s an almost perfect imitation of what a concern troll bot would sound like.

    • Agree: HammerJack
  122. I have a friend whom I would estimate to be in her mid-to-late thirties, very healthy (avid cyclist and hiker); she caught WuFlu back in early April and says she still feels like her cardiovascular system hasn’t fully recovered- she gets winded very easily these days. It pays to be careful even now.

  123. “If this really was a peak for deaths, it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment.”

    Or just the virus running its natural course.

  124. @Lot
    @Captain Tripps

    “ Sounds almost exactly how a cold runs through me (5-7 days, loss of taste/smell, but more of a wet cough/congestion).”

    Coronaviruses cause about a sixth of common colds, so we’ve all had them many times.

    I’ve never had a loss of taste or smell before.

    Replies: @Elsewhere, @peterike

    I’ve never had a loss of taste or smell before.

    It’s called a stuffy nose. But people panicked by the media now call it “loss of taste and smell OHMY!”

  125. @theMann
    And is related news:

    Gold $2021.00
    Silver $26.18

    Rocketing upwards. Dollar collapse in play. CoronaFraud, timed at Spring Planting, deliberately did as much damage to food production as possible. Winter food prices, severe increases. Famine by Spring 2021, guaranteed.

    Massive increases in malnutrition related illnesses, guaranteed. All such illnesses labeled "next wave" Corona, 100% certain. Most of you STILL drinking the kool-aid on the lies....ditto.

    Replies: @Redman

    And don’t leave out the suicides. There are going to be an insane number of “excess suicides” (if that term even exists) as a result of these lock downs. Guaranteed.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
    @Redman


    And don’t leave out the suicides. There are going to be an insane number of “excess suicides” (if that term even exists) as a result of these lock downs. Guaranteed.
     
    Do you really think so? Do you have any evidence?
    , @HA
    @Redman

    "There are going to be an insane number of “excess suicides” (if that term even exists) as a result of these lock downs. Guaranteed."

    Is that more or less than all the excess suicides that would happen if another couple of hundred thousand people die from this thing? Because that's the actual comparison you need to make, not this heads-I-win-tails-they-lose approach you're going with.

    You don't think that a larger-than-average number of emotionally fragile and suicidal people won't be driven off the edge by seeing their grandmas choking to death in their ventilators (especially if everyone around them is blithely trying to ignore this thing away, because we don't want to spook the economy)? Why are you so convinced that it's only the lockdowns, and not the excess number of dead grandmas that are responsible for every single one of these excess suicides? If you can't admit you're just pushing numbers around to suit your pet theories, you have no business complaining about the idiots who mark motorcycle deaths as COVID casualties.

    Again, you have all these people here pretending that everything -- suicide rates included -- would go back to normal if we would just stop doing anything about the virus. Given that death rates have gone back up once restrictions were eased (in Texas, for example, the death tolls have more than tripled in comparison with the early peak -- despite the fact that's we're in summertime and well out of flu season) that is no longer a tenable theory (not that it ever was). You don't have to pro-lockdown to admit that. You just have to be honest.

  126. @Alexander Turok
    @Almost Missouri


    all of the mainstream first-world northern hemisphere countries had approximately the same experience, irrespective of lockdown policy: excess deaths peaked by April, emergency over by June
     
    I'm just like an NBA star. Sometimes I throw the ball through the hoop, sometimes I miss.

    Replies: @gabriel alberton

    What numbers (cases, deaths, curve shapes), regarding those countries, would we expect to see if the lockdowns weren’t/hadn’t been effective?

  127. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @utu

    With the exception of two weeks dedicated to systemic racism, all the top medical journals and even the more technical ones (Nature, for example), have dedicated most of their space for covid-related "studies". On the other side, governments have provided research money to any imbecile who can string together a phrase that includes covid. Even the Romanian government pays for "research" on the boomer flu.

    Ophthalmologists must have discovered eye changes following covid. Rheumatologists have elucidated covid-related joint pains. Medical physicists found the right dose of radiation for covid-related CT scan. Three boy scouts printed masks on their 3D printer, and shoved them masks up their behinds as it was never authorized for clinical use. BMJ is droning on about how blacks are coughing two more days when they get covid, as if we can change our race to a more covid-resistant one. Reich probably found the bn chromosome that really matters for covid's ability to impair smell. George Church already implanted a piece of that chromosome in his genitals, to lower the problems he got from chronic soap allergies. AK is interested in how much that gene changes taste. Dipak Das tells everyone to drink more wine, pandemic or no pandemic.

    Everyone paid their mortgages, while their grad students paid their rents. Thermo Fisher made a killing.

    Everything was discovered, except a decent test, a decent antiseptic for surfaces, a decent high-volume filter for air, and a decent measurement of covid survival on air / on surfaces / in foods and water. I never expected a treatment or a vaccine, given the SARS experience, but at least these seemed important and perfectly feasible.

    We are nearing the end of the pandemic across the world. So now the "scientists" have little to report on new treatment strategies. Treat what, when almost all new cases are mild or asymptomatic? You can't measure "days to remission", when the patients come to the doctor without symptoms.

    And so, the window is closing fast on new cases in the civilized world. There won't be any cases in the placebo arm for any treatment or vaccine. I doubt anyone will approve a vaccine trialed in India or some subSaharan country that is still lagging behind in new severe cases. So it's over.

    And so, the pivot is now towards sequelae. You will hear about covid accelerating Alzheimer, AIDS, verrucae, and blenorrhagia. It will always be worsening, because otherwise the "experts" won't be funded as much. Kidneys are just the beginning.

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @vhrm, @utu

    AND, what the heck happened to all the antibody testing that was supposed to be happening? There’s more data from April than from now that i can find.

    All the media is still reporting primarily cumulative “confirmed cases” (though new daily cases also is in there) even though: they know it’s something like 3x, 10x or 20x undercount of actual cases but no idea how much in any place at any given point AND that the disease course for most people is on order of a week…

  128. @utu
    High odds severe Covid-19 can lead to kidney injury or failure, medical studies reveal
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/severe-covid-19-can-lead-to-kidney-failure-medical-studies-reveal.html

    "At Mount Sinai 46% of patients that were admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic had some form of acute kidney injury; of those, 17% required urgent dialysis."

    "Surprisingly, 82% of patients that got an acute kidney injury had no history of kidney issues; 18% did. More than a third of patients that survived did not recover the same kidney function they had before contracting the virus."

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Dacian Julien Soros, @Kyle

    “At Mount Sinai 46% of patients that were admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic had some form of acute kidney injury; of those, 17% required urgent dialysis.”

    “Surprisingly, 82% of patients that got an acute kidney injury had no history of kidney issues; 18% did. More than a third of patients that survived did not recover the same kidney function they had before contracting the virus.”

    Chronic kidney damage, not acute kidney damage. Acute kidney damage would imply that they recovered function. So people suffering chronic sars-cov-2 infections, long haulers in layman’s terms, are suffering from permanent kidney damage. With 5 deaths in Vietnam, I have to wonder if tens of millions of Americans are undiagnosed diabetics.

  129. @The Wild Geese Howard
    OT:

    Jorge Ramos Wants Latina President: Black Americans ‘Already Had One’

    https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2020/08/04/jorge-ramos-wants-latina-president-black-americans-already-had-one/

    Replies: @HammerJack

    What about Asians? What are we, chopped liver?

    Oh, I forgot, I’m not Asian. Maybe I’m chopped liver.

  130. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "If this really was a peak for deaths, it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment."

    No. This year's flu peaked in April, just like every other flu season. You and many others simply fell for a hoax.

    Replies: @vhrm

    This year’s flu peaked in April, just like every other flu season. You and many others simply fell for a hoax.

    right… just like every other flu season…

    … peak flu activity in the United States by month for the 1982-1983 through 2017-2018 flu seasons. The “peak month of flu activity” is the month with the highest percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza virus infection during that influenza season. During this 36-year period, flu activity most often peaked in February (15 seasons), followed by December (7 seasons), January (6 seasons) and March (6 seasons).

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

    April was the peak in 0 of those 36 years.

  131. @George
    Covid causes shortage of cheap immigrant labor causes rising food prices causing the next level of immigrant labor to move back to Mexico.

    “I left the United States to be able to afford groceries,” said Valadez, who brought his family to stay with his mother-in-law in Mexico, although he maintains his California home. “Food prices are what’s keeping us here.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/for-the-unemployed-rising-grocery-prices-stretch-budgets-even-more/ar-BB17z6H8

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    George, we give people cash to stay home and free food and require nothing in return. What would be the incentive to take a job in agriculture?

  132. @anonymous
    I think it's wishful thinking caused by the fear that if the virus doesn't recede then Trump won't be re-elected. The country isn't serious about curbing the spread and most states haven't yet seen a steep rise in cases. There's no reason to think the virus just went away and won't surge in those states. I think it's time to consider a 2-month second national lockdown to bring the virus under control at least for the sake of normal voting in November. If the vote is blemished by large scale complaints of irregularities and Trump is re-elected I fear there will be nationwide violent unrest. The long term consequences of that could be continuous violent clashes for years and destabilizing secession movements.

    Replies: @gabriel alberton, @peterike, @Hibernian

    You’re back, Tiny.

  133. @RichardTaylor
    The lockdown fear will be pushed until the election. Dems, media, the Usual Suspects see political advantage in scaring people and ruining the economy.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe

    Richard, Bingo. With only days before NYS schools have to submit their re-opening plans, Cuomo hits them with questions about Covid testing. Pulled that completely out of his ass and now back to square one. See how easy it is to keep this going.

  134. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    The google doodle is diapered up today: each letter is sporting its own face diaper.

    Face diapers: disgusting, disease-infested objects, especially after baking in the sun hanging from your rearview mirror like an empty ball sac, full of marinated fermenting bacteria and moisture.

    The Democratic Party sociopaths laugh and have an orgasm every time they see you ignorant cowards in a face diaper. Any man in a face diaper has either no balls or no brains: you are cowards and/or imbeciles.

    Get Out Live Life!

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    One of the local universities is about to commence Fall semester with in-person classes.

    The number of college age men walking around outside in the sun by themselves with masks is unbelievable.

    If they really wanted to do the right thing they’d just pack up and save mom and dad four or five years of tuition.

  135. @Reg Cæsar

    ...Alabama which has no canyons.
     
    The “Grand Canyon Of The East” Is Right Here In Alabama… And It’s Spectacular

    THE BEST Alabama Canyons (with Photos)

    WELCOME to DISMALS CANYON: National Natural Landmark


    Dismalites (glowworms)
    Past twilight the canyon lights up with tiny bioluminescent creatures we call Dismalites. These "glowworms" require a select habitat to survive and are unique to only a few places on Earth. They are “close cousins” of the rare glowworms found in Australia and New Zealand.

    Guided Night Tours allow visitors to see these unique insects.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9dWye5fEeLU

    "We are experiencing an extremely high volume of calls this season. If you get a busy signal please continue to call back. Sorry for the inconvenience but a "human" answers every call not a "robot" or "machine" during business hours! "
     

    BTW, did everyone celebrate Obama's Birthday yesterday? It was also Coast Guard Day, and the birthday of one of the Brimelow children.

    Replies: @S. Anonyia, @Bert, @JMcG, @AnotherDad

    Thanks Reg. I’ve only been to Alabama one time in my life, and never north of B-ham. But i’m always looking for interesting places to visit on the way from FL to WA. And i haven’t yet crossed the GA-AL and AL-TN borders. The Little River Canyon in particular looks worth the stop.

  136. @Kaz
    @peterike

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-new-york-city-zero-covid-deaths-three-days/

    They're terrified to go back to what they were seeing a few months ago where the situation was completely out of control.

    Now they're on par with other countries where they have an average of less than 10 deaths a week..

    NY coffers are hurting right now, but after the surge in deaths they experienced from April-May leaders feel it's worth it to stay shut down.

    Remember NY leadership was happy to downplay COVID concerns until it hit them like a truck. I don't think it's some grand conspiracy, they're actually scared.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    NY coffers are hurting right now, but after the surge in deaths they experienced from April-May leaders feel it’s worth it to stay shut down.

    Let’s just totally ignore Cuomo’s March 25th order forcing nursing homes to accept hospital patients without regard for their Cv-19 status:

    Andrew Cuomo’s big lie on nursing homes and The Post

    https://nypost.com/2020/06/19/andrew-cuomos-big-lie-on-nursing-homes-and-the-post/

  137. @Alexander Turok
    @Corvinus


    Mr. Sailer incorrectly characterized health professionals[sic] insistence
     
    Oh, of course, it's a completely, 100% objective question if something is an "obsession" or not, which you've answered conclusively. Pat yourself on the back. I like the term "health professionals." You expect these kind of euphemisms to come from low-status professions, garbage men and teachers and the like. But doctors have traditionally been a high-status profession, hopefully people will start waking up to their crap.

    https://www.cato-unbound.org/2007/09/10/robin-hanson/cut-medicine-half

    Replies: @JackOH, @Corvinus

    Alexander, thanks for that important reference to the Hanson article, which I read about the time it came out. I was floored by his intellectual courage, which is shared by very few. Maybe the late Rheinhardt (sp?) at Princeton, Oberlander at the U. of NC, Shannon Brownlee, a few others are willing to allow the whole damned edifice of American health is wobbly by design. Nothing to be done by reasoned debate. The money’s too big.

  138. Heckuva job, Nip!

    Andrew Cuomo Pleads with Rich New Yorkers to Return to City: ‘Come Over, I’ll Cook!’

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/08/05/andrew-cuomo-pleads-with-rich-new-yorkers-to-return-to-city-come-over-ill-cook/

    “I literally talk to people all day long who are now in their Hamptons house who also lived here, or in their Hudson Valley house, or in their Connecticut weekend house, and I say, ‘You got to come back! We’ll go to dinner! I’ll buy you a drink! Come over, I’ll cook!’” Cuomo said during a Monday press conference.

    [MORE]

    “They have to deliver. We have federal representatives, we have senators and we have congresspeople,” Cuomo said. “We pay them to pass a piece of legislation that’s going to help New York. And it’s simple, if the federal legislature is not going to help New York, you know what I say to them? ‘Don’t pass it! It can’t pass without you! Don’t pass a piece of legislation that doesn’t restore New York’s funds.’”

    Il Douche, indeed.

  139. @Alexander Turok
    @Corvinus


    Mr. Sailer incorrectly characterized health professionals[sic] insistence
     
    Oh, of course, it's a completely, 100% objective question if something is an "obsession" or not, which you've answered conclusively. Pat yourself on the back. I like the term "health professionals." You expect these kind of euphemisms to come from low-status professions, garbage men and teachers and the like. But doctors have traditionally been a high-status profession, hopefully people will start waking up to their crap.

    https://www.cato-unbound.org/2007/09/10/robin-hanson/cut-medicine-half

    Replies: @JackOH, @Corvinus

    “Oh, of course, it’s a completely, 100% objective question if something is an “obsession” or not, which you’ve answered conclusively. Pat yourself on the back.”

    Health professionals in certain locations were inundated by Covid 19 patients. Being a novel virus, they went through which types of care options would be most appropriate. At the time, decisions were made to emphasize the use of ventilators. Later on, as health professionals became more cognizant of Covid 19, they made changes in treatment. I suppose in retrospect that would constitute an obsession–to keep patients alive.

    “But doctors have traditionally been a high-status profession, hopefully people will start waking up to their crap.”

    The problems of the health care industry are a separate issue. I would like to see to what extent matters have changed, given that the contents of the source you provided is 13 years old.

  140. ES says:

    I think a major factor in the lower death rate during the summer jump in cases is that the soft targets, the nursing homes, have already been hit. Like shock and awe in Iraq, you can do a lot of harm in the initial wave but the follow-on attacks end up mostly just shifting the rubble.

  141. That fictional death must have been traumatic for Miss McLaughlin, like losing a piece of herself.

  142. ES says:

    The Daily Mail today reports on NYC “quarantining” 35 states. Ironic that the engine of the American pandemic, NYC, which Trump failed to quarantine when it might have helped, now wants to quarantine the rest of the country. Seems pointless to me. They may not have reached “herd immunity”, but there’s not much more damage the pandemic can do in NYC.

    • Replies: @anon
    @ES

    NYC, which Trump failed to quarantine when it might have helped, now wants to quarantine the rest of the country.

    An effective quarantine would have required sequestering the entire Tri-State area. Trump did not and does not have authority to do that. Congrats on attempting to distract away from geezer-killer Cuomo's actions, though. Nice try.

    , @utu
    @ES

    "NYC “quarantining” 35 states. " - They should have done it much sooner. NYC and NYS made a great progress in reducing daily infections though still they are doing worse than Italy with 3 times population but if they continue and prevent importing new infections they have a chance to quash the virus. NYS and surrounding states (CT, MA, VT, NJ, RI) should go for virus elimination that among non Asian countries only New Zealand aimed at and succeeded.


    'A matter of when not if': New Zealand begins battle against 'Covid fatigue'
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/a-matter-of-when-not-if-new-zealand-begins-battle-against-covid-fatigue

    It has been 97 days since the last domestic case of Covid-19 was transmitted from an unknown source in New Zealand; all 24 diagnosed instances of the virus are among travellers returning to the country who are in quarantine at government-managed isolation hotels.

    A strict lockdown of the country in March and April quashed the spread of the virus, with fewer than 1,500 cases confirmed and 22 deaths. All restrictions on daily life except border controls were lifted two months ago.
     

    For some unknown (one may speculate why) reasons the virus elimination strategy was never put on the table in Europe or in the US. Instead we were offered a false alternative of 'curve flattening' vs. 'herd immunity'. The latter was not acceptable while the former put us in what A. Karlin called idiot's limbo (**). Was New Zealand beyond the reach of the Sauron Eye?

    (**) A. Karlin: “So we got a kind of idiot’s limbo where r0 fell to 0.6-1.0 (instead of the 0.3 observed in “cybergulag” Wuhan), failing to stamp out the epidemic, but the economy collapsed anyway.”
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-probably-out-of-control-in-dagestan/#comment-3906817

     

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

  143. ES says:
    @Hypnotoad666
    @Buffalo Joe


    I looked on line but so many conflicting sites and results, what is the survivability rate in the USA?
     
    You just have to divide the number of infections by the number of deaths caused by those infections to get the answer. That should be pretty straightforward.

    The number of infections could be determined by doing regular testing on randomized samples of the population. The deaths caused by the virus could be determined by doing a pathology review on a random sample of people who died after testing positive in order to determine whether it was the virus or something else that was the cause of death. (Or, more sophisticated, the percentage by which the virus increased mortality in the sample).

    But instead, it's an endless data dump of useless numbers. The alleged number of "cases" is just who tested positive and is totally dependent on how many tests are given and the non-random selection of who gets tested. It's a complete joke. The "deaths" number is equally useless as it's just people who died "with," and not necessarily "because of" the virus.

    I don't know where all the smart people have gone that should be on these issues. But the media and public health bureaucracy are just running wild with nonsense numbers. It's a truly amazing mass delusion.

    Replies: @ES

    You just have to divide the number of infections by the number of deaths caused by those infections to get the answer. That should be pretty straightforward.

    Other way round. You’re right though, that the problem is we really don’t know the size of the denominator, the number of infections.

  144. anon[702] • Disclaimer says:
    @ES
    The Daily Mail today reports on NYC "quarantining" 35 states. Ironic that the engine of the American pandemic, NYC, which Trump failed to quarantine when it might have helped, now wants to quarantine the rest of the country. Seems pointless to me. They may not have reached "herd immunity", but there's not much more damage the pandemic can do in NYC.

    Replies: @anon, @utu

    NYC, which Trump failed to quarantine when it might have helped, now wants to quarantine the rest of the country.

    An effective quarantine would have required sequestering the entire Tri-State area. Trump did not and does not have authority to do that. Congrats on attempting to distract away from geezer-killer Cuomo’s actions, though. Nice try.

  145. @another fred
    @Buffalo Joe

    The cases statistics are so clouded that any number given is going to be suspect. The one thing we know is that deaths are extremely low for the young and very high for the elderly. In spite of the age factor there still seems to be some genetic susceptibility involved, especially for those younger than 65 or 75.

    I have no doubt that this is a very serious disease for those who are susceptible, but it is obvious that susceptibility varies widely.

    I really wish more authorities would publish statistics at least as detailed as Cook County, IL did a couple of months ago (preferably more), but there seems to be a reluctance to do so. The way they are treating information makes one feel a bit like a mushroom, i.e. being fed shit in the dark.

    Replies: @Buffalo Joe, @prosa123, @Kyle

    Try googling the phrase “covid 19 is bullshit.” You won’t get any results. There is no nuance in this debate. You need to dig into statistics yourself gain a nuanced perspective. I’m scientifically illiterate so that’s difficult for me. Obviously locking everyone young and old inside for 18 months is a bad idea. It will only delay the curve, not flatten it. And there might never be a vaccine. Not to mention economic depression. What we need is a real national dialogue. A risk benefit analysis, comprising different age groups and co-morbidities. Who should lock down and who should be working. Personally I’m not worried about myself or fellow Americans developing heart damage or chronic kidney damage, I’m more worried about buying a house. But I can definitely see the other side of the debate. This virus is in the wild but I’m not sure it’s going to be here forever with seasonal epidemics like the flu and common cold. Sars-1 kinda just went away. This might be more of a one and done thing, like chicken pox. Still around and dangerous in the environment, but not a raging pandemic. Perhaps like chicken pox it’s better to get it as a child and deadly to get it as an older person… But frank discussion on chronic illness & mortality is not PC, so we can’t have frank discussion. That’s just not who we are as Americans. I agree with everything Corvinus is saying, but I disagree with his pessimism and his support of a complete national 2 month shut down. That’s asinine. Especially if you develop long term immunity after infection. My solution would be to lock down people over 45, mandatory masks, schools open with teachers on Skype, & otherwise let’er rip.

  146. So as long as we keep older and or sicker people “isolated” pretty much all the people that were going to die have died.(?)

  147. HA says:
    @Bard of Bumperstickers
    Head of CDC Admits Lockdown Killing Way More Americans Than Covid:
    https://www.redstate.com/michael_thau/2020/07/27/head-of-cdc-lockdown-suicides-drug-ods-killing-way-more-americans-than-covid/

    This should have killed CDC director's career:
    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/08/05/cdc-director-redfield-letter-should-have-destroyed-his-career/ & https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/category/covid/

    Fauci's lying:
    https://onenewsnow.com/perspectives/bryan-fischer/2020/04/27/fauci-knew-about-hcq-in-2005-nobody-needed-to-die

    The whole narrative of corona is a fabrication, says Brit doc, Vernon Coleman: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCd6F39mg7LPUkw1BfiJDibw/videos

    Replies: @HA

    “Head of CDC Admits Lockdown Killing Way More Americans Than Covid”

    That’s how it’s supposed to work. The better the lockdown is, the lower the number of Covid deaths. In fact, the ideal number of post-lockdown Covid deaths would be zero, in which case most ANYTHING that kills people, be it peanut allergies or bathtubs, would be killing more. Is that really something that we should be outraged over? Why is that so difficult for people to understand?

    This is about as dumb as claiming the hospitals are empty without noting that it is the cardio-pulmonary wing (or wherever they treat cytokine storms and organ failure) where the glut is happening. I mean, yeah, if you were planning on getting your diseased kidneys or liver operated on, all that has likely been postponed, especially once all the masks and gauze and gloves have been commandeered by that cardio-pulmonary wing, which means large stretches of the hospital are indeed empty, but there’s nothing suspicious about that either.

    Again, the relevant comparison is how many deaths the lockdown has caused vs. the number it has saved. I guarantee you the CDC is still claiming the number of dead we would have seen in the absence of any lockdown would have been far greater than the number the lockdown has killed.

    This magic lockdown that the corona-truthers would have us believe is responsible for all the excess deaths we’re seeing — and yet it results in even more deaths once it is lifted — is about as believable as that magic/tragic dirt that is supposedly the key to solving racism. If you want a more believable conspiracy theory, maybe go back to pretending that alien lizard people built Stonehenge.

    • Replies: @Peterike
    @HA

    “ In fact, the ideal number of post-lockdown Covid deaths would be zero, in which case most ANYTHING that kills people, be it peanut allergies or bathtubs, would be killing more. Is that really something that we should be outraged over? Why is that so difficult for people to understand?”

    Because the covid deaths are not zero and whatever they are they’d be the same without a lockdown. So the lockdown deaths are a bonus. A coward dies many times before his death, and now it’s literal.

    Replies: @HA

  148. @peterike

    NYC is probably closer to herd immunity than any other big city in the US, but is it close enough?

     

    Feh. It was over in NYC by May. They could have had a 100% re-opening at that point. Instead, Cuomo keeps moving the goalposts, and his utterly arbitrary "Stages" have been reduced to meaninglessness. He just does whatever he feels like. Yet follow his twitter: every time he needlessly extends a lockdown, his feed is filled with people thanking him for "keeping us safe!" Along with a much smaller percentage of dissenters calling him out.

    It's a sad situation in the Big Apple. The city is run by a genuine moron in DeBlasio, and the State by a genuine monster in Cuomo. Meanwhile, 80% of restaurants and bars were not able to pay their full rent in July. 80%! Yet in-restaurant dining fades ever more into the distant future with no date in site. And deaths in the city are now down to a few a day. I kid you not, it's like 2 or 3 a day. And we are far below every other "milestone" measurement. 15-20K tests a day with a positive rate of 1%.

    Yet the rules remain!

    Replies: @eD, @Kaz, @The Wild Geese Howard, @VinnyVette

    And according to that old sage Cuomo… “chicken wings aren’t food.”
    He isn’t qualified to run a fast food restaurant, no less govern a state!

  149. @Almost Missouri
    An irony about this epidemic in the US is that in spite of the polarized partisan rancor, the US may have unintentionally settled into a nearly optimal strategy: older and more vulnerable people are sequestered, while younger and healthier people mingle in the streets passing around germs, surviving, and so creating herd immunity.

    It's just too bad so much of the aforementioned mingling had to be in the form of rioting, looting, and mob violence. That part probably could have been avoided by a) not restricting younger, healthier people so much in the first place, thereby allowing them more wholesome ways to occupy the last several months, and b) not promoting the big lie that there is a war on black people.

    Replies: @HammerJack, @AKAHorace, @AnotherDad, @Kronos, @Anon

    Once again the Americans just make it up and try everything until we find what works. Greatest generation.

  150. @jon
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen


    Case counts are up because facediaper use is up. People load up their diapers with bacteria and virums and touch their faces much more than normal whilst bediapered. As Americans diaper up, case counts soar xponentially.
     
    This is just made up bullshit.
    I live in Korea, we had our first documented positive case on the same day that the US had theirs. We were also the first big hot-spot outside of China, with a big outbreak in a secretive cult/church in Daegu. The whole "pandemic" was a short lived scare and everything is pretty close to back to normal now. Total deaths are still below 300. We've been below 50 new cases a day for months now, and Daegu, the original center of the outbreak, hasn't had a single case in weeks (for per capita comparison of stats, Korea has a population around 50 million).
    Everyone here has been wearing masks since the start, and everyone is still wearing them now. The government even set up a mask rationing system where everyone could get a certain number a week to prevent hoarding and to encourage everyone to mask up.
    All of the countries that are like Korea that have been wearing masks since the start are doing better at this than the countries that don't:

    Countries with early adoption of face masks showed modest coronavirus infection rates, researchers say
     
    https://www.foxnews.com/science/countries-early-adoption-face-masks-modest-coronavirus-infection-rates

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @The Last Real Calvinist

    “This is just made up bullshit.
    I live in Korea” blah blah blah

    Duh. I’m just trolling alls y’alls – thanks for swallowing so thirstily my putrid bait!

    Case counts are up xponentially because testing is up xponentially. Duh.

    Diaper up!

  151. @Chrisnonymous
    @Almost Missouri

    It is clear from the correlation of obesity and diabetes with severity and the non-correlation of other lung diseases like COPD and asthma, that this is a disease that is basically affecting those with poor metabolic status (always, of course, there are exceptions). I suspect this is part of the reason Sweden has done well in the death department--better underlying metabolic health.

    As I started saying a few months ago, we ought to be focused on how to prevent the disease from becoming severe rather than trying to stop it from spreading.

    Sure, there are possible treatments, like dexamethosone, maybe budesonide, and there are things you can add, like Vitamin D and zinc, but as N.N.Taleb points out, anti-fragility is achieved better by taking things away--in this case, your Twinkies and Big Gulp.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SBakerMD/status/1291002450808365057

    Dr. Shawn Baker is correct. We are now 6 months into COVID. Six months is long enough to make serious changes in your metabolic status. Plus, the fact that people are stuck at home and poor makes this a great time for people to try extended fasting regimines.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1288103894153695232

    In general, we should be doing this...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1287369827284217856

    In Japan, they keep telling people to avoid "the three Cs"--Closed spaces, Crowded spaces, and Close contact. All well and good, but avoiding the "the three Ss" is just as important--Sugar, Seed oils, and Sedentariness.

    If everyone in the USA had been avoiding the three Ss for the last 6 months, I'd wager we would have a different picture of health, a lower death rate, and better preparation for the next pandemic virus.

    Replies: @Anon, @Redman

    If everyone in the USA had been avoiding the three Ss for the last 6 months, I’d wager we would have a different picture of health, a lower death rate, and better preparation for the next pandemic virus.

    Amen brother.

  152. HA says:

    “it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment…”

    And also better prevention (not just lockdowns and masks, but a greater concern over avoiding unduly close contact, esp. with the vulnerable, etc.). A much publicized animal study is being cited by mask advocates as evidence that masks not only reduce the likelihood of catching COVID, they reduce the likelihood that those who wind up getting sick will have serious complications (e.g., death).

    We’ll see how well that study holds up in the long term. In the meantime, people need to keep it in mind when listening to someone from, say, Switzerland, saying how this thing is no big deal, and then pretending that’s going to be true everywhere.

    What holds true for the Swiss is not necessarily going to hold true in, say, Mississippi, or even Italy and Spain.

  153. @HA
    @Bard of Bumperstickers

    "Head of CDC Admits Lockdown Killing Way More Americans Than Covid"

    That's how it's supposed to work. The better the lockdown is, the lower the number of Covid deaths. In fact, the ideal number of post-lockdown Covid deaths would be zero, in which case most ANYTHING that kills people, be it peanut allergies or bathtubs, would be killing more. Is that really something that we should be outraged over? Why is that so difficult for people to understand?

    This is about as dumb as claiming the hospitals are empty without noting that it is the cardio-pulmonary wing (or wherever they treat cytokine storms and organ failure) where the glut is happening. I mean, yeah, if you were planning on getting your diseased kidneys or liver operated on, all that has likely been postponed, especially once all the masks and gauze and gloves have been commandeered by that cardio-pulmonary wing, which means large stretches of the hospital are indeed empty, but there's nothing suspicious about that either.

    Again, the relevant comparison is how many deaths the lockdown has caused vs. the number it has saved. I guarantee you the CDC is still claiming the number of dead we would have seen in the absence of any lockdown would have been far greater than the number the lockdown has killed.

    This magic lockdown that the corona-truthers would have us believe is responsible for all the excess deaths we're seeing -- and yet it results in even more deaths once it is lifted -- is about as believable as that magic/tragic dirt that is supposedly the key to solving racism. If you want a more believable conspiracy theory, maybe go back to pretending that alien lizard people built Stonehenge.

    Replies: @Peterike

    “ In fact, the ideal number of post-lockdown Covid deaths would be zero, in which case most ANYTHING that kills people, be it peanut allergies or bathtubs, would be killing more. Is that really something that we should be outraged over? Why is that so difficult for people to understand?”

    Because the covid deaths are not zero and whatever they are they’d be the same without a lockdown. So the lockdown deaths are a bonus. A coward dies many times before his death, and now it’s literal.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Peterike

    "Because the covid deaths are not zero and whatever they are they’d be the same without a lockdown."

    If that were true, then lifting the lockdown wouldn't cause death rates to start creeping up again (especially not at a time of year when quacks like DanHessinMD assured us this thing would no longer transmit, and especially since we were "almost at herd immunity" or whatever other half-baked theory was being proposed around here). And yet, we have that graph at the top of the page. All that wishful thinking, blown away to bits by cruel reality.

    Again, this is a magic/tragic lockdown that mysteriously causes deaths when it's applied and then more deaths when it's lifted is about as believable as the crazy old grandpa's stories about how when he had to walk to school back in the old days, he had to do it uphill both ways.

    I realize that's not going to stop you, but then, they could never get crazy old grandpa to pipe down, either.

    Replies: @peterike

  154. @Chrisnonymous
    @Almost Missouri

    It is clear from the correlation of obesity and diabetes with severity and the non-correlation of other lung diseases like COPD and asthma, that this is a disease that is basically affecting those with poor metabolic status (always, of course, there are exceptions). I suspect this is part of the reason Sweden has done well in the death department--better underlying metabolic health.

    As I started saying a few months ago, we ought to be focused on how to prevent the disease from becoming severe rather than trying to stop it from spreading.

    Sure, there are possible treatments, like dexamethosone, maybe budesonide, and there are things you can add, like Vitamin D and zinc, but as N.N.Taleb points out, anti-fragility is achieved better by taking things away--in this case, your Twinkies and Big Gulp.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SBakerMD/status/1291002450808365057

    Dr. Shawn Baker is correct. We are now 6 months into COVID. Six months is long enough to make serious changes in your metabolic status. Plus, the fact that people are stuck at home and poor makes this a great time for people to try extended fasting regimines.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1288103894153695232

    In general, we should be doing this...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1287369827284217856

    In Japan, they keep telling people to avoid "the three Cs"--Closed spaces, Crowded spaces, and Close contact. All well and good, but avoiding the "the three Ss" is just as important--Sugar, Seed oils, and Sedentariness.

    If everyone in the USA had been avoiding the three Ss for the last 6 months, I'd wager we would have a different picture of health, a lower death rate, and better preparation for the next pandemic virus.

    Replies: @Anon, @Redman

    Wow. I’ve been waiting for someone to say this.

    In 1968 (the year of the Hong Kong Flu) when 100K Americans died, about 1 percent of the population has diabetes. Today it’s over 10 percent.

    Why isn’t Covid simply a wake up call to Americans to shed the weight and get in shape?

  155. @Bert
    @Reg Cæsar

    Web-spinning predatory non-luminescent larvae of related fungus gnats are found in caves of Jamaica and Belize and in the wind-protected understory of Central American high canopy wet forests.
    More than you want to know, I'm sure.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Web-spinning predatory luminescent larvae of related fungus gnats are found in caves of Jamaica and Belize and in the wind-protected understory of Central American high canopy wet forests.

    Thanks. I’ll keep that in mind next time I go hunting tamandua.

    And sloth.

    • Replies: @Bert
    @Reg Cæsar

    That poor sloth. It looks like a woke person when first challenged with scientific HBD facts.

  156. Anonymous[504] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Buffalo Joe

    99.9995% of BULLSHIT-2020 patients in the US survive.

    Sweden did no lockdowns, no facediapers, no DSM distancing, and their survival rate is the same as the US.

    Hoax, A to Z.

    Sailer, characteristically skeptical of the fakestream media, fell for this hoax hook, l, s, r, r, boat. Imbecile.

    Replies: @Anonymous

    COVID-1984

    re: Alabama/Nashville Koyaanisqatsi, Stolen e-Valor Edition:

    Vaccines don’t cause autism. But Big Ed now hires from it. Back East we never had to tweet our sickest burns

  157. The language of this post reminds me of this tweet:

    In other news, Razib writes:

    But, to be frank I’m a lot more open to the idea [of mass immigration] because I’m not sure what sort of culture we’re trying to save at this point. Our cultural elites are pretty rancid in my opinion.

    https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/08/04/one-billion-americans-is-about-families/

    What are we trying to save, Steve? The elites are rancid, the opposition is rancid, and you’re in this cat-state.

  158. @theMann
    Ah, the mystical, magical, corona virus. A mish-mash of a SARS Flu virus and a cold type Corona Virus. Probably a biochemical impossibility, but whatever.


    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/08/no_author/no-one-has-died-from-the-coronavirus-2/

    Some diversity of opinion there.

    Texas Official deaths (from Texas Department of State Health Services):

    2018 SARS 11,917
    2019 SARS 10,020
    2020 Coronavirus 3,112 through 7-20-2020

    And the death numbers are so bogus they mean exactly nothing. I could site a hundred articles, but the facts don't matter.

    To admit that CoronaFraud is a lie is to admit that you have been a moron. And nobody is going to do that. So double down, on doubling down, on doubling down, until our country is entirely destroyed.


    Our world is saturated with viruses, including Corona Viruses. You can die of literally anything and they could find Corona viruses present. Of course, they don't have to test for it, won't autopsy the bodies, and the MDs signing off on the Death Certificates get paid if they label the death Covid-19, not to mention that 2-3 weeks after people die, with the body cremated or buried, they are going back and changing cause of death to Covid-19.

    Is there anything, anything at all, that can get you to let go of the Lies, stop drinking the kool-aid?


    1. When a saturation Media event is going on, it is a lie.
    2. When multiple Officials are repeatedly caught falsifying evidence, it is a conspiracy to commit Fraud on an unprecedented level.
    3. When a lengthy series of Unconstitutional (and indeed, War Crimes level) events go on , completely in accordance with the Medical Fraud, it is war on the American people.
    4. When a "disease" only kills sick old people, it is bogus on the face of it. A "disease" that only kills sick old people? Seriously? Diseases kill sick old people, like TB, Lung Cancer, Flu, but one disease killing them, and only them? Seriously?


    This is now so far beyond insanity that worlds fail me.

    Replies: @Achilles Wannabe

    This is now so far beyond insanity that words fail me.

    Oh I wish that were true. But listen. If you breathe on me without a mask, I will blow your libertarian head off. Or actually I won’t because I am white and whites don’t do things like that. But perhaps we should.

  159. @Buddy Stevenson
    @Almost Missouri

    How can there be herd immunity when antibodies for this coronavirus (and others) only last a few months?

    Replies: @dfordoom, @BB753, @Almost Missouri

    How can there be herd immunity when antibodies for this coronavirus (and others) only last a few months?

    That’s one of the questions you’re not supposed to ask. Herd immunity is a matter of faith. If herd immunity isn’t possible we’re screwed, therefore it must happen.

    It’s like the vaccine. Just keep believing in it and it will happen.

    • Replies: @Buddy Stevenson
    @dfordoom

    It’s like saying we could have herd immunity from the cold. That’s what this coronavirus is, the cold from hell!

  160. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Almost Missouri

    "But still, at a minimum we can say that there does seem to be more of it around than before."

    Case counts are up because facediaper use is up. People load up their diapers with bacteria and virums and touch their faces much more than normal whilst bediapered. As Americans diaper up, case counts soar xponentially.

    Bottom line: face diapers increase disease and must be banned with hefty fines and imprisonment.

    Replies: @jon, @dfordoom

    Bottom line: face diapers increase disease and must be banned with hefty fines and imprisonment.

    We also need to ban re-usable shopping bags, which are nothing but pathogen traps.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  161. HA says:
    @Peterike
    @HA

    “ In fact, the ideal number of post-lockdown Covid deaths would be zero, in which case most ANYTHING that kills people, be it peanut allergies or bathtubs, would be killing more. Is that really something that we should be outraged over? Why is that so difficult for people to understand?”

    Because the covid deaths are not zero and whatever they are they’d be the same without a lockdown. So the lockdown deaths are a bonus. A coward dies many times before his death, and now it’s literal.

    Replies: @HA

    “Because the covid deaths are not zero and whatever they are they’d be the same without a lockdown.”

    If that were true, then lifting the lockdown wouldn’t cause death rates to start creeping up again (especially not at a time of year when quacks like DanHessinMD assured us this thing would no longer transmit, and especially since we were “almost at herd immunity” or whatever other half-baked theory was being proposed around here). And yet, we have that graph at the top of the page. All that wishful thinking, blown away to bits by cruel reality.

    Again, this is a magic/tragic lockdown that mysteriously causes deaths when it’s applied and then more deaths when it’s lifted is about as believable as the crazy old grandpa’s stories about how when he had to walk to school back in the old days, he had to do it uphill both ways.

    I realize that’s not going to stop you, but then, they could never get crazy old grandpa to pipe down, either.

    • Replies: @peterike
    @HA


    Again, this is a magic/tragic lockdown that mysteriously causes deaths when it’s applied and then more deaths when it’s lifted
     
    You seem to have come up with a phrase you think is clever and are using it against all logic. Honestly I have no idea what you're talking about.

    The lockdown doesn't "mysteriously" cause deaths. It causes actual deaths for a host of reasons. Here's a start:


    More than 600 of the nation’s physicians sent a letter to President Trump this week calling the coronavirus shutdowns a “mass casualty incident” with “exponentially growing negative health consequences” to millions of non COVID patients.

    “The downstream health effects...are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error," according to the letter initiated by Simone Gold, M.D., an emergency medicine specialist in Los Angeles.

    “Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%,” the letter said. Other silent casualties: “150,000 Americans per month who would have had new cancer detected through routine screening.”
     

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemarieturner/2020/05/22/600-physicians-say-lockdowns-are-a-mass-casualty-incident/#74721deb50fa

    There's more here (it's a thread):

    https://twitter.com/cryptonephilim/status/1282046249819009026

    So lockdowns = more deaths. Blatantly obvious, really.

    While lockdowns may temporarily slow down the virus, they do nothing in the long run. That's why deaths "creep up" when lockdowns end. Nobody ever argued otherwise. In addition, there is well understood regional variation which is why the South spiked later, and is already on its way down sharply. Virus is gonna do what the virus is gonna do. The lockdown just adds thousands of additional deaths and millions of ruined lives, destroyed businesses, etc. It's the most cosmically stupid public health decision in history, especially considering how obviously wrong it was to anyone paying attention.

    Replies: @HA

  162. @peterike
    @Corvinus

    Ok, I read the first five or six of those "lies" Trump supposedly said, and every one of them was a case of weaselly, Talmudic (Seth Abramson, after all) hair splitting. Every one easily arguable as not a lie at all.

    But this is typical of the "Trump told a billion lies" media spin. Here's the first example, but they are all like this:


    LIE: Trump says that—despite growing up in the "church" of Norman Vincent Beale's now-infamous philosophy of "positive thinking"—he's equally committed to always seeing the downside of a scenario.

    TRUTH: Trump aides' books confirm he won't hear bad news—and it endangers America.

     

    How on earth does that so-called "truth" contradict Trump's assertion at all, much less make it a "lie"? And saying Trump "won't hear bad news" in reality means he doesn't ACCEPT bad news, and he tells you to go fix it. Which is what CEOs do. But the butt-hurt "aide" writing the tell-all book whines that Trump won't listen. As in, won't listen to my mealy-mouthed excuses.

    I'd say about 95% of what the media calls a Trump "lie" is precisely this kind of prevaricating bullshit. And half the time Abramson is using an actual lie (but a widely touted media lie) to contradict Trump.

    Yet the number of Americans who believe the media's cheap carny act is simply amazing. Corvinus being a prime, in-house example.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Tusk, @RudyM

    Seeing all these headlines about ‘TOTAL TRAINWRECK INTERVIEW’ made me watch it, and as usual Trump comes across fairly norml though he does say and do some things wrong, but far from a total trainwreck. I think we’ve reached the reading tea leaves stage where everything Trump does is wrong.

  163. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Remember when the goal was to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the hospitals ? The hospitals have been empty here for months, and the number of deaths in June and July are below the total deaths in 2019. Yet the media continue to push the panic narrative.

    The curve was flattened months ago , yet the panic and lockdowns continue. Here in NJ the churches are still closed , while the casinos are open. The teachers are trying to keep the schools closed. Yet more students died of the flu this year than COVID.

    Replies: @Travis

    I agree. The lockdowns did little to stop the spread in New Jersey. The Epidemic peaked 4 weeks after they imposed the lockdown. The schools were shutdown March 15, yet cases soared in the first week in April and peaked on April 21. The lockdown was completely ineffective , since most of the deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Young people are basically immune to CV. NYC and NJ appeared to reach heard immunity back in May. Most people who are exposed to CV never develop symptoms and can fight CV without creating antibodies. We need to end the lockdowns while we continue to encourage people to wash their hands and get sun exposure to increase your vit D levels. Eat healthy and get adequate sleep to keep your immune strong.

  164. @Scott in PA
    I've never heard explained why each week in the death chart includes a trough, which corresponds to the weekend. Are people trying to eek out one more weekend?

    Replies: @Telemachos

    The deaths in the charts are for day reported, not day the death happened. Often in the U.K. for example deaths are reported weeks after they happen.

    France makes an effort to report hospital deaths the day they happen but other deaths are reported once a week, on a Tuesday.

    I suspect that a lot of that sort of thing is going on here which is why Tuesday and Wednesday always have the highest death rate.

  165. @Mr. Anon
    @Corvinus


    “And also of course, we probably could have gotten about the same result…”

    Probably not.
     
    You don't know what you're talking about, you idiot. Sweden has a death-rate lower than New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, the UK, Belgium, Spain - all of which had lockdown policies ranging from intrusive to draconian.

    For stupid people like you "Science" is just a magic talisman - a thing you stroke and chant words over in the hopes that it will work it's mystical ju-ju.

    You don't understand anything about science. You are a moron.

    Replies: @utu

    ” Sweden has a death-rate lower than New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, the UK, Belgium, Spain” – Not when you account for the population density. Sweden when compared to economically and culturally similar Scandinavian countries like Denmark, Finland and Norway did about from 6 (Denmark) to 12 (Norway) times worse. Which means that if Sweden followed Norway that has similar population density to Sweden 91% of 5,760 dead Swedes would be still alive.

    • Agree: epebble
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    40% of Sweden's COVID deaths are in Stockholm, which is presumably the densest part of Sweden. The numbers are the numbers. And Sweden's overall death-rate is less than lots of other countries, including many of those that treated their own citizens has convicted felons. Japan has high population density, and extensive use of public transport, and has a corona death-rate lower than that of Norway.

    The lockdowns are bulls**t.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @utu

    Sweden has a larger population than Denmark and combined.....and Sweden has five times the number of refugees of Norway and Denmark combined.

    So the demographics of Sweden is different. With so many foreigners in the cities , the Swedes may have been attempting to ethnically cleansed their cities, if this was the plan , it failed. COVID-19 was not strong enough to kill many people in Sweden, despite keeping schools, restaurants and churches open..New Jersey did far worse , and they locked down completely in NJ , yet 15,600 died in NJ compared to 5,700 in all of Sweden.

    NJ had 3 times the deaths as Sweden , despite having a younger and smaller population. The lockdowns failed. No evidence they worked here in America.

    Replies: @HA, @utu

  166. @ES
    The Daily Mail today reports on NYC "quarantining" 35 states. Ironic that the engine of the American pandemic, NYC, which Trump failed to quarantine when it might have helped, now wants to quarantine the rest of the country. Seems pointless to me. They may not have reached "herd immunity", but there's not much more damage the pandemic can do in NYC.

    Replies: @anon, @utu

    “NYC “quarantining” 35 states. “ – They should have done it much sooner. NYC and NYS made a great progress in reducing daily infections though still they are doing worse than Italy with 3 times population but if they continue and prevent importing new infections they have a chance to quash the virus. NYS and surrounding states (CT, MA, VT, NJ, RI) should go for virus elimination that among non Asian countries only New Zealand aimed at and succeeded.

    ‘A matter of when not if’: New Zealand begins battle against ‘Covid fatigue’
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/a-matter-of-when-not-if-new-zealand-begins-battle-against-covid-fatigue

    It has been 97 days since the last domestic case of Covid-19 was transmitted from an unknown source in New Zealand; all 24 diagnosed instances of the virus are among travellers returning to the country who are in quarantine at government-managed isolation hotels.

    A strict lockdown of the country in March and April quashed the spread of the virus, with fewer than 1,500 cases confirmed and 22 deaths. All restrictions on daily life except border controls were lifted two months ago.

    For some unknown (one may speculate why) reasons the virus elimination strategy was never put on the table in Europe or in the US. Instead we were offered a false alternative of ‘curve flattening’ vs. ‘herd immunity’. The latter was not acceptable while the former put us in what A. Karlin called idiot’s limbo (**). Was New Zealand beyond the reach of the Sauron Eye?

    (**) A. Karlin: “So we got a kind of idiot’s limbo where r0 fell to 0.6-1.0 (instead of the 0.3 observed in “cybergulag” Wuhan), failing to stamp out the epidemic, but the economy collapsed anyway.”
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-probably-out-of-control-in-dagestan/#comment-3906817

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @utu

    Cuomo was against a quarantine when Trump suggested a quarantine to protect the other 48 states from NY and NJ. He also mocked Trump for imposing a quarantine on European nations.

    Now he has quarantined the vast majority of the United States., but allows international flights to bring thousands of foreigners each day into NYC.

  167. @Redman
    @theMann

    And don’t leave out the suicides. There are going to be an insane number of “excess suicides” (if that term even exists) as a result of these lock downs. Guaranteed.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @HA

    And don’t leave out the suicides. There are going to be an insane number of “excess suicides” (if that term even exists) as a result of these lock downs. Guaranteed.

    Do you really think so? Do you have any evidence?

  168. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @utu

    With the exception of two weeks dedicated to systemic racism, all the top medical journals and even the more technical ones (Nature, for example), have dedicated most of their space for covid-related "studies". On the other side, governments have provided research money to any imbecile who can string together a phrase that includes covid. Even the Romanian government pays for "research" on the boomer flu.

    Ophthalmologists must have discovered eye changes following covid. Rheumatologists have elucidated covid-related joint pains. Medical physicists found the right dose of radiation for covid-related CT scan. Three boy scouts printed masks on their 3D printer, and shoved them masks up their behinds as it was never authorized for clinical use. BMJ is droning on about how blacks are coughing two more days when they get covid, as if we can change our race to a more covid-resistant one. Reich probably found the bn chromosome that really matters for covid's ability to impair smell. George Church already implanted a piece of that chromosome in his genitals, to lower the problems he got from chronic soap allergies. AK is interested in how much that gene changes taste. Dipak Das tells everyone to drink more wine, pandemic or no pandemic.

    Everyone paid their mortgages, while their grad students paid their rents. Thermo Fisher made a killing.

    Everything was discovered, except a decent test, a decent antiseptic for surfaces, a decent high-volume filter for air, and a decent measurement of covid survival on air / on surfaces / in foods and water. I never expected a treatment or a vaccine, given the SARS experience, but at least these seemed important and perfectly feasible.

    We are nearing the end of the pandemic across the world. So now the "scientists" have little to report on new treatment strategies. Treat what, when almost all new cases are mild or asymptomatic? You can't measure "days to remission", when the patients come to the doctor without symptoms.

    And so, the window is closing fast on new cases in the civilized world. There won't be any cases in the placebo arm for any treatment or vaccine. I doubt anyone will approve a vaccine trialed in India or some subSaharan country that is still lagging behind in new severe cases. So it's over.

    And so, the pivot is now towards sequelae. You will hear about covid accelerating Alzheimer, AIDS, verrucae, and blenorrhagia. It will always be worsening, because otherwise the "experts" won't be funded as much. Kidneys are just the beginning.

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @vhrm, @utu

    I think I understand your cynicism. . For somebody from Romania the reality may appear as a grand conspiracy full of deceptions and gypsy hustlers. Fortunately the world is not Romania yet.

    • Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros
    @utu

    The fact that you can't make new decent virologists overnight is well above the economic thinking of a Romanian. Most of my compatriots think that, if only there would be more money, everything would be better. My pessimistic opinion is based on ideas from The Mythical Man-Month.

  169. @Reg Cæsar
    @Bert


    Web-spinning predatory luminescent larvae of related fungus gnats are found in caves of Jamaica and Belize and in the wind-protected understory of Central American high canopy wet forests.
     
    Thanks. I'll keep that in mind next time I go hunting tamandua.


    https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V0C8ZjrmQ0Y/XDNWQY5MCfI/AAAAAAAAHi0/CevqAM4Lm0YxG-NGvjP2fjilMs9HxhBMwCLcBGAs/s1600/Northern%2BTamandua%2B%2528Tamandua%2Bmexicana%2529.jpg

    And sloth.


    https://www.textbooktravel.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Central-American-Wildlife-Featured-Image.jpg

    Replies: @Bert

    That poor sloth. It looks like a woke person when first challenged with scientific HBD facts.

  170. @jon
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen


    Case counts are up because facediaper use is up. People load up their diapers with bacteria and virums and touch their faces much more than normal whilst bediapered. As Americans diaper up, case counts soar xponentially.
     
    This is just made up bullshit.
    I live in Korea, we had our first documented positive case on the same day that the US had theirs. We were also the first big hot-spot outside of China, with a big outbreak in a secretive cult/church in Daegu. The whole "pandemic" was a short lived scare and everything is pretty close to back to normal now. Total deaths are still below 300. We've been below 50 new cases a day for months now, and Daegu, the original center of the outbreak, hasn't had a single case in weeks (for per capita comparison of stats, Korea has a population around 50 million).
    Everyone here has been wearing masks since the start, and everyone is still wearing them now. The government even set up a mask rationing system where everyone could get a certain number a week to prevent hoarding and to encourage everyone to mask up.
    All of the countries that are like Korea that have been wearing masks since the start are doing better at this than the countries that don't:

    Countries with early adoption of face masks showed modest coronavirus infection rates, researchers say
     
    https://www.foxnews.com/science/countries-early-adoption-face-masks-modest-coronavirus-infection-rates

    Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @The Last Real Calvinist

    Here’s the thing, though.

    I live in Hong Kong, where the COVID experience has been much like S Korea’s, i.e. an initial outbreak, then quick control and virtual elimination via moderate social distancing and mask-wearing.

    This made everybody here feel nice and smug, but there’s a little problem that’s popped up recently. After a couple of months of almost-normal life, we’ve had a new outbreak, brought in mostly via sailors and other frequent travelers who were for some odd reason completely exempted from HK’s pretty stringent quarantine measures.

    Anyway, for the past 2-3 weeks, each day we’ve been getting one or two deaths, and consistently 75-150 new cases.

    In the greater scheme of things, this isn’t bad at all. But in May and June many people here assumed HK could remain completely COVID-free, so now they’re in a panic. What would seem mild in most other places seems like a disaster here.

    So we’re now on a much more hard-core social distancing regimen than we were back in March. Restaurants are only open for breakfast and lunch, most people are working from home again, and so on. It’s far more disheartening to have done the semi-lockdown, then be set free for a couple of months, and then have to go back to the mattresses again.

    I agree with you that masks work. They certainly worked here, at least for a while, in conjunction with fairly mild social distancing.

    But in the broader scheme of things, this ‘virus-free’ goal is likely backing your country into a corner — you can’t socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever. Sooner or later the virus is going to break loose again. At that point, I think any number of places may wish they’d simply have done a Sweden, and gotten it over with.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Anon
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    I get the sense of frustration perfectly. However, Sweden’s strategy makes sense only if one personally will not be losing a (loved) family member.

    Also, herd immunity is a concept that ONLY exists in the context of a vaccine, i.e. a national immunization program, where you vaccine 60-70% of the population and the virus exists but cannot become epidemic.

    Looking at history, you see diseases running rampant never gave “herd immunity”, which is why you had plagues from ancient Athens all the way to now. Smallpox was “eradicated” with a vaccine.

    Herd immunity in today’s situation is just a disinformation term.

    , @HA
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    "you can’t socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever. Sooner or later the virus is going to break loose again. ... At that point, I think any number of places may wish they’d simply have done a Sweden, and gotten it over with."

    Yeah, sure -- 20/20 hindsight is a mighty sweet superpower. If I could look into the future and see that the chemo and the operation and the nausea-inducing medication were all going to fail to prolong my life in any way, then yeah, I'd simply say "go ahead, cancer -- bring it on, and let's just get this over with". But in a world where none of us have that 20/20 hindsight superpower, how does that observation help anyone?

    Sure, if we know that there will be no effective vaccine without disastrous side-effects, no cure, no improved treatment, no improved preventatives, no mutation of the virus to some milder form (as maybe happened with Spanish flu), and no way to better identify those who will suffer serious consequences -- if every single one of those possibilities fails utterly -- then yeah, Sweden will have been the best approach. But apart from the corona-truthers who still manage to claim victory with every failed prediction, we don't know that, do we? We have to wait to see how reality actually turns out.

    On the contrary, if within six months we have a vaccine that can be given to at least the high-risk comorbidity-suffering patients out there -- even it has to be rejiggered once a season as is sometimes the case for regular flu -- or an improvement in treatment, or more effective separation of the vulnerable (a mistake that even Swedish government officials -- though not the Sweden-bros -- admit was distastrous) then will at least some of those Sweden bros admit that the let-'er-rip approach was stupid.

    Of course not. Who are we kidding? Around here, if I've learned anything it's that it's only the people we don't agree with who ever need to apologize.

    , @jon
    @The Last Real Calvinist


    But in the broader scheme of things, this ‘virus-free’ goal is likely backing your country into a corner — you can’t socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever.
     
    Korea doesn't actually have a 'virus-free' goal and they have never had a hard-core social distancing/lockdown/SIP type mandate (not even during the initial breakout in Daegu). The only mandatory requirements during this entire epidemic were related to schools - the were delayed, then online for a period, and now they are face-to-face. No business was ever required to shut down (though some of the more obviously dangerous ones did because there were no willing customers), and there were no restrictions on movement or outdoor recreation. I know people who lived in Daegu that were going to work everyday right in the middle of the outbreak.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

  171. @Buddy Stevenson
    @Almost Missouri

    How can there be herd immunity when antibodies for this coronavirus (and others) only last a few months?

    Replies: @dfordoom, @BB753, @Almost Missouri

    You only need a few months of herd immunity to get rid of a virus. Until it comes back, perhaps next winter season, or not. Just like the flu. Living and breathing is dangerous for the old and sickly. Always has been and always will be. Now, can we get on with our lives and toss the silly masks in the bin?

  172. Anon[274] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Last Real Calvinist
    @jon

    Here's the thing, though.

    I live in Hong Kong, where the COVID experience has been much like S Korea's, i.e. an initial outbreak, then quick control and virtual elimination via moderate social distancing and mask-wearing.

    This made everybody here feel nice and smug, but there's a little problem that's popped up recently. After a couple of months of almost-normal life, we've had a new outbreak, brought in mostly via sailors and other frequent travelers who were for some odd reason completely exempted from HK's pretty stringent quarantine measures.

    Anyway, for the past 2-3 weeks, each day we've been getting one or two deaths, and consistently 75-150 new cases.

    In the greater scheme of things, this isn't bad at all. But in May and June many people here assumed HK could remain completely COVID-free, so now they're in a panic. What would seem mild in most other places seems like a disaster here.

    So we're now on a much more hard-core social distancing regimen than we were back in March. Restaurants are only open for breakfast and lunch, most people are working from home again, and so on. It's far more disheartening to have done the semi-lockdown, then be set free for a couple of months, and then have to go back to the mattresses again.

    I agree with you that masks work. They certainly worked here, at least for a while, in conjunction with fairly mild social distancing.

    But in the broader scheme of things, this 'virus-free' goal is likely backing your country into a corner -- you can't socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever. Sooner or later the virus is going to break loose again. At that point, I think any number of places may wish they'd simply have done a Sweden, and gotten it over with.

    Replies: @Anon, @HA, @jon

    I get the sense of frustration perfectly. However, Sweden’s strategy makes sense only if one personally will not be losing a (loved) family member.

    Also, herd immunity is a concept that ONLY exists in the context of a vaccine, i.e. a national immunization program, where you vaccine 60-70% of the population and the virus exists but cannot become epidemic.

    Looking at history, you see diseases running rampant never gave “herd immunity”, which is why you had plagues from ancient Athens all the way to now. Smallpox was “eradicated” with a vaccine.

    Herd immunity in today’s situation is just a disinformation term.

  173. @HA
    @Peterike

    "Because the covid deaths are not zero and whatever they are they’d be the same without a lockdown."

    If that were true, then lifting the lockdown wouldn't cause death rates to start creeping up again (especially not at a time of year when quacks like DanHessinMD assured us this thing would no longer transmit, and especially since we were "almost at herd immunity" or whatever other half-baked theory was being proposed around here). And yet, we have that graph at the top of the page. All that wishful thinking, blown away to bits by cruel reality.

    Again, this is a magic/tragic lockdown that mysteriously causes deaths when it's applied and then more deaths when it's lifted is about as believable as the crazy old grandpa's stories about how when he had to walk to school back in the old days, he had to do it uphill both ways.

    I realize that's not going to stop you, but then, they could never get crazy old grandpa to pipe down, either.

    Replies: @peterike

    Again, this is a magic/tragic lockdown that mysteriously causes deaths when it’s applied and then more deaths when it’s lifted

    You seem to have come up with a phrase you think is clever and are using it against all logic. Honestly I have no idea what you’re talking about.

    The lockdown doesn’t “mysteriously” cause deaths. It causes actual deaths for a host of reasons. Here’s a start:

    More than 600 of the nation’s physicians sent a letter to President Trump this week calling the coronavirus shutdowns a “mass casualty incident” with “exponentially growing negative health consequences” to millions of non COVID patients.

    “The downstream health effects…are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error,” according to the letter initiated by Simone Gold, M.D., an emergency medicine specialist in Los Angeles.

    “Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%,” the letter said. Other silent casualties: “150,000 Americans per month who would have had new cancer detected through routine screening.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemarieturner/2020/05/22/600-physicians-say-lockdowns-are-a-mass-casualty-incident/#74721deb50fa

    There’s more here (it’s a thread):

    So lockdowns = more deaths. Blatantly obvious, really.

    While lockdowns may temporarily slow down the virus, they do nothing in the long run. That’s why deaths “creep up” when lockdowns end. Nobody ever argued otherwise. In addition, there is well understood regional variation which is why the South spiked later, and is already on its way down sharply. Virus is gonna do what the virus is gonna do. The lockdown just adds thousands of additional deaths and millions of ruined lives, destroyed businesses, etc. It’s the most cosmically stupid public health decision in history, especially considering how obviously wrong it was to anyone paying attention.

    • Replies: @HA
    @peterike

    "The lockdown doesn’t “mysteriously” cause deaths. It causes actual deaths for a host of reasons."

    No one's disputing that. The mystery comes from the fact that when deaths first started spiking, the truthers blamed it not on the virus, but on the lockdowns. (That's right, they were blaming stuff like this on just the lockdowns, and if you doubt me, I'll track down the sleazy post-hoc-propter-hoc "studies" that claimed exactly that.) And yet, when the lockdowns were eased, we had yet another increase in deaths, which is the point of this whole thread, (Did you not happen to notice the word "hump" in the title of Sailer's post? That's what we're talking about.)

    So apparently, these magical/mystical lockdowns somehow manage to cause a spike in deaths both when they're applied, and then another hump when they're lifted and/or eased. Just like crazy old grandpa's walks to and from school in the bitter rain and snow that managed to go uphill both ways, and just about as believable.

    And you're STILL quoting Wittkowski? The guy who predicted that only 10,000 would die? And then, once that number had been blown through, like the weasel that he is, changed that to "I meant to say, up to 100,000"? And that was a couple of months ago. Any guesses on what his updated excuse will be now that the 150K mark has been passed? Anyway, if he's still your man, you're doing a great job of making those truthers look good there, champ. Let's all remember that the next time some other fool comes in here wagging his finger at Steve Sailer and claiming he's the one who owes everyone an apology, as opposed to people like you.


    "Virus is gonna do what the virus is gonna do."

    Yeah, sure, assuming -- as I mentioned elsewhere -- that there is A) no effective vaccine, B) no cure, C) no improved treatment, D) no improved preventatives, E) no mutation of the virus to some milder form (as maybe happened with Spanish flu), F) no way to better identify those who will suffer serious consequences, etc.

    A whole lot of assumptions there, but assuming they all line up into place -- and they certainly might -- then yeah, in that particular case, the virus is gonna do what it's gonna do. But given how well the forecasts of you and people like you (e.g. Wittkowski) have turned out thus far, I'm not betting the farm on that one either.

  174. I believe the purpose of this post is to drive me insane. Me personally.

    “If this really was a peak for deaths, it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment. ”

    Literally no mention of the large herd of elephants milling about the room. Is the seasonality obvious only to me?

    Just look at these numbers (see table below) fresh from this morning from worldometers.info :

    In Florida deaths/confirmed case is 0.015 but in New York it is 0.073. Is Florida medicine and age profile so much better than New York’s? Florida is a very old state and medicine is not regarded as more advanced in Florida than in New York. Both had to deal with COVID early and Florida’s age profile is particularly skewed old. In fact Florida is typically the retirement destination for aging New Yorkers.

    In Mississippi deaths/confirmed case is 0.028 but in Massachusetts it is 0.072. Is Mississippi medicine and age profile so much better than Massachusetts’s? Mississippi is very poor and 40% black, and known to lag socioeconomically. Massachusetts is very wealthy and just 7% black, and known for its advanced medicine and socioeconomic success. If anything, you would expect a much higher CFR in Mississippi than in Massachusetts. But Massachusetts has cold winters, which translates into dry indoor air in the colder months.

    In Georgia and Alabama, deaths/confirmed case are 0.019 and 0.017 respectively. In Michigan and Connecticut they are 0.069 and 0.088 respectively. Is Georgia so much younger and medically superior to Michigan? Is impoverished and 30% black Alabama so much younger and more medically advanced than wealthy Connecticut which is just 10% black? Of course not. You would expect Alabama to have a much higher CFR than Connecticut, but instead it is more than 5 times lower. This is an incredibly dramatic difference that is inexplicable until you realize that humidity (including indoor humidity) is such a dominant factor for COVID-19 survival.

    People buy humidifiers for respiratory health. They have been doing this for generations. This isn’t snake oil. We see mortality drop by 75% in the summer and humidity is the only available variable because everyone is inside most of the time and the temperature indoors is 72 degrees year round.

    This is a sophisticated practical joke on me by the operators of the simulation right? It cannot be that the most blindingly obvious remedy to this once in a century pandemic, indoor humidification in winter, is obvious only to me, can it?

    Maybe the dramatic decline in COVID mortality across the northern hemisphere is just God’s special grace, with no natural cause.

    • Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @DanHessinMD

    Humidity could be another reason vaping nicotine reduced risk of being hospitalized with COVID.

    Vaping brings humidity straight into the lungs with nicotine which binds to to same receptors targeted by the virus, thus preventing infections.

    Humidity is a factor, but people in Florida get much more vitamin D than New Yorkers.

    Probably the higher levels of vitamins D , along with the humidity helps reduce CV fatalities.

  175. HA says:
    @Redman
    @theMann

    And don’t leave out the suicides. There are going to be an insane number of “excess suicides” (if that term even exists) as a result of these lock downs. Guaranteed.

    Replies: @dfordoom, @HA

    “There are going to be an insane number of “excess suicides” (if that term even exists) as a result of these lock downs. Guaranteed.”

    Is that more or less than all the excess suicides that would happen if another couple of hundred thousand people die from this thing? Because that’s the actual comparison you need to make, not this heads-I-win-tails-they-lose approach you’re going with.

    You don’t think that a larger-than-average number of emotionally fragile and suicidal people won’t be driven off the edge by seeing their grandmas choking to death in their ventilators (especially if everyone around them is blithely trying to ignore this thing away, because we don’t want to spook the economy)? Why are you so convinced that it’s only the lockdowns, and not the excess number of dead grandmas that are responsible for every single one of these excess suicides? If you can’t admit you’re just pushing numbers around to suit your pet theories, you have no business complaining about the idiots who mark motorcycle deaths as COVID casualties.

    Again, you have all these people here pretending that everything — suicide rates included — would go back to normal if we would just stop doing anything about the virus. Given that death rates have gone back up once restrictions were eased (in Texas, for example, the death tolls have more than tripled in comparison with the early peak — despite the fact that’s we’re in summertime and well out of flu season) that is no longer a tenable theory (not that it ever was). You don’t have to pro-lockdown to admit that. You just have to be honest.

  176. @peterike
    @Corvinus

    Ok, I read the first five or six of those "lies" Trump supposedly said, and every one of them was a case of weaselly, Talmudic (Seth Abramson, after all) hair splitting. Every one easily arguable as not a lie at all.

    But this is typical of the "Trump told a billion lies" media spin. Here's the first example, but they are all like this:


    LIE: Trump says that—despite growing up in the "church" of Norman Vincent Beale's now-infamous philosophy of "positive thinking"—he's equally committed to always seeing the downside of a scenario.

    TRUTH: Trump aides' books confirm he won't hear bad news—and it endangers America.

     

    How on earth does that so-called "truth" contradict Trump's assertion at all, much less make it a "lie"? And saying Trump "won't hear bad news" in reality means he doesn't ACCEPT bad news, and he tells you to go fix it. Which is what CEOs do. But the butt-hurt "aide" writing the tell-all book whines that Trump won't listen. As in, won't listen to my mealy-mouthed excuses.

    I'd say about 95% of what the media calls a Trump "lie" is precisely this kind of prevaricating bullshit. And half the time Abramson is using an actual lie (but a widely touted media lie) to contradict Trump.

    Yet the number of Americans who believe the media's cheap carny act is simply amazing. Corvinus being a prime, in-house example.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia, @Tusk, @RudyM

    Yo Semites, it’s Peale, not Beale.

  177. @Redneck farmer
    Crap, I thought Sciencing_Bi was finally a Good Indian!

    Replies: @Change that Matters, @Lot, @Bard of Bumperstickers

  178. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    " Sweden has a death-rate lower than New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, the UK, Belgium, Spain" - Not when you account for the population density. Sweden when compared to economically and culturally similar Scandinavian countries like Denmark, Finland and Norway did about from 6 (Denmark) to 12 (Norway) times worse. Which means that if Sweden followed Norway that has similar population density to Sweden 91% of 5,760 dead Swedes would be still alive.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    40% of Sweden’s COVID deaths are in Stockholm, which is presumably the densest part of Sweden. The numbers are the numbers. And Sweden’s overall death-rate is less than lots of other countries, including many of those that treated their own citizens has convicted felons. Japan has high population density, and extensive use of public transport, and has a corona death-rate lower than that of Norway.

    The lockdowns are bulls**t.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "treated their own citizens has convicted felons" - A deranged lolbertarian?

    "Japan has high population density, and extensive use of public transport, and has a corona death-rate lower than that of Norway." - This is true but Japan has universal mask policy to which they adhere since 1920s and they imposed the state of emergency where they advised people what to do and what not to do which amounted to de facto lockdowns. Some also speculate that East Asians may have extra immunity to corona viruses but this has not been proven.


    Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

    If you were to listen to Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, it is down to the "superior quality" of Japanese people. In a now notorious comment, Mr Aso said he had been asked by leaders of other countries to explain Japan's success.

    "I told these people: 'Between your country and our country, mindo (the level of people) is different.' And that made them speechless and quiet."
     

    Their mindo is different. They are not cursed with recalcitrant antisocial elements that America is full of among white lolbertarians and colored lumpenproletariat who get offended thinking that they are being treated as convicted felons (even if many of them are convicted felons) when asked to be just conscientious, cooperative and considerate.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

  179. @dfordoom
    @Buddy Stevenson


    How can there be herd immunity when antibodies for this coronavirus (and others) only last a few months?
     
    That's one of the questions you're not supposed to ask. Herd immunity is a matter of faith. If herd immunity isn't possible we're screwed, therefore it must happen.

    It's like the vaccine. Just keep believing in it and it will happen.

    Replies: @Buddy Stevenson

    It’s like saying we could have herd immunity from the cold. That’s what this coronavirus is, the cold from hell!

  180. @Corvinus
    @Matt Buckalew

    LOL. I say, you do have a way with words. I mean, you are allegedly a 6'2, alt right Catholic jock who attended an Ivy League school and has a trust fund. But anyone can be anything on the Internet, right, Chateau Heartiste admirer?

    Replies: @Matt Buckalew

    Is that anime? I’m sorry I was too busy playing sports and getting laid in high school.

    I’m gonna put that down as a no you haven’t fucked in the past twelve months.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Matt Buckalew

    Is that anime? I’m sorry I was too busy playing sports and getting laid in high school."

    LOL, so says the Secret King. The more that an anonymous has to tell their story about their supposed successes and conquests on a blog, the more they act like a teenage girl striving for attention and relevance.

    Replies: @Matt Buckalew

  181. HA says:
    @The Last Real Calvinist
    @jon

    Here's the thing, though.

    I live in Hong Kong, where the COVID experience has been much like S Korea's, i.e. an initial outbreak, then quick control and virtual elimination via moderate social distancing and mask-wearing.

    This made everybody here feel nice and smug, but there's a little problem that's popped up recently. After a couple of months of almost-normal life, we've had a new outbreak, brought in mostly via sailors and other frequent travelers who were for some odd reason completely exempted from HK's pretty stringent quarantine measures.

    Anyway, for the past 2-3 weeks, each day we've been getting one or two deaths, and consistently 75-150 new cases.

    In the greater scheme of things, this isn't bad at all. But in May and June many people here assumed HK could remain completely COVID-free, so now they're in a panic. What would seem mild in most other places seems like a disaster here.

    So we're now on a much more hard-core social distancing regimen than we were back in March. Restaurants are only open for breakfast and lunch, most people are working from home again, and so on. It's far more disheartening to have done the semi-lockdown, then be set free for a couple of months, and then have to go back to the mattresses again.

    I agree with you that masks work. They certainly worked here, at least for a while, in conjunction with fairly mild social distancing.

    But in the broader scheme of things, this 'virus-free' goal is likely backing your country into a corner -- you can't socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever. Sooner or later the virus is going to break loose again. At that point, I think any number of places may wish they'd simply have done a Sweden, and gotten it over with.

    Replies: @Anon, @HA, @jon

    “you can’t socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever. Sooner or later the virus is going to break loose again. … At that point, I think any number of places may wish they’d simply have done a Sweden, and gotten it over with.”

    Yeah, sure — 20/20 hindsight is a mighty sweet superpower. If I could look into the future and see that the chemo and the operation and the nausea-inducing medication were all going to fail to prolong my life in any way, then yeah, I’d simply say “go ahead, cancer — bring it on, and let’s just get this over with”. But in a world where none of us have that 20/20 hindsight superpower, how does that observation help anyone?

    Sure, if we know that there will be no effective vaccine without disastrous side-effects, no cure, no improved treatment, no improved preventatives, no mutation of the virus to some milder form (as maybe happened with Spanish flu), and no way to better identify those who will suffer serious consequences — if every single one of those possibilities fails utterly — then yeah, Sweden will have been the best approach. But apart from the corona-truthers who still manage to claim victory with every failed prediction, we don’t know that, do we? We have to wait to see how reality actually turns out.

    On the contrary, if within six months we have a vaccine that can be given to at least the high-risk comorbidity-suffering patients out there — even it has to be rejiggered once a season as is sometimes the case for regular flu — or an improvement in treatment, or more effective separation of the vulnerable (a mistake that even Swedish government officials — though not the Sweden-bros — admit was distastrous) then will at least some of those Sweden bros admit that the let-‘er-rip approach was stupid.

    Of course not. Who are we kidding? Around here, if I’ve learned anything it’s that it’s only the people we don’t agree with who ever need to apologize.

  182. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @jon

    Here's the thing, though.

    I live in Hong Kong, where the COVID experience has been much like S Korea's, i.e. an initial outbreak, then quick control and virtual elimination via moderate social distancing and mask-wearing.

    This made everybody here feel nice and smug, but there's a little problem that's popped up recently. After a couple of months of almost-normal life, we've had a new outbreak, brought in mostly via sailors and other frequent travelers who were for some odd reason completely exempted from HK's pretty stringent quarantine measures.

    Anyway, for the past 2-3 weeks, each day we've been getting one or two deaths, and consistently 75-150 new cases.

    In the greater scheme of things, this isn't bad at all. But in May and June many people here assumed HK could remain completely COVID-free, so now they're in a panic. What would seem mild in most other places seems like a disaster here.

    So we're now on a much more hard-core social distancing regimen than we were back in March. Restaurants are only open for breakfast and lunch, most people are working from home again, and so on. It's far more disheartening to have done the semi-lockdown, then be set free for a couple of months, and then have to go back to the mattresses again.

    I agree with you that masks work. They certainly worked here, at least for a while, in conjunction with fairly mild social distancing.

    But in the broader scheme of things, this 'virus-free' goal is likely backing your country into a corner -- you can't socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever. Sooner or later the virus is going to break loose again. At that point, I think any number of places may wish they'd simply have done a Sweden, and gotten it over with.

    Replies: @Anon, @HA, @jon

    But in the broader scheme of things, this ‘virus-free’ goal is likely backing your country into a corner — you can’t socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever.

    Korea doesn’t actually have a ‘virus-free’ goal and they have never had a hard-core social distancing/lockdown/SIP type mandate (not even during the initial breakout in Daegu). The only mandatory requirements during this entire epidemic were related to schools – the were delayed, then online for a period, and now they are face-to-face. No business was ever required to shut down (though some of the more obviously dangerous ones did because there were no willing customers), and there were no restrictions on movement or outdoor recreation. I know people who lived in Daegu that were going to work everyday right in the middle of the outbreak.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @jon

    Yes, that sounds exactly like HK.

    I hope SK can maintain this delicate balance. It worked here in HK for a couple of months -- and now it's not working anymore. The situation is much the same in Australia, which looked as if it had 'beat the virus', but now is having an outbreak.

    We're not on total lockdown here in HK even now, either. Most stores are open, some people are still going to work, etc. But all public assemblies are off again (e.g. churches), restaurants are open only in the daytime, and people are discouraged from patronizing them unless necessary (e.g. construction workers who can't take a lunch along with them every day), all forms of public entertainment are completely shut down, and office workers are all back home again.

    Schools here also went back F2F to finish off the 2019-2020 school year, but have been told to expect online only to begin the Autumn 2020 school year, and then until further notice.

    What gets me down here -- and you see the same thing in other countries, of course -- is absolutely no clear idea of what the overall goal is anymore. 'Bending the curve', or whatever it was, is so out of date now that I can't even recall if I've got the phrase right.

    So is the goal virus elimination? Seems unrealistic at this point. You say SK doesn't have this goal, but I wonder. The HK government also never officially declared this, either, but then its actions, and public perceptions, have assumed it anyway. When your society really does have a period in which there are no new cases, much less any deaths, lots of people forget all about more modest and realistic long-term control measures, and simply assume they should be forever 'safe' from the virus.

    Or is the goal hanging on in a lockdown 'holding pattern' until a vaccine lands? There's a lot of promises being made for just-around-the-corner vaccines, but there are no guarantees, and it already looks as if any vaccine that appears will spark a huge controversy between those who will claw over Grandma to get it, and those who will spurn it as Satan-juice distributed by the Global Hegemons.

    Or is the goal striking an ongoing, semi-permanent, 'sensible balance' that allows for about 80%-normal life, like in many E Asian countries, and hoping that the daily case rate stays low enough that no one panics and demands more lockdown? This still sounds reasonable to me, but the current situation in HK (and Oz, and Japan) indicates that this is a highly precarious scenario. The whiplash reaction to HK's fairly minimal current 'outbreak' suggests that people quickly reset their expectations in ways that make striking this balance very, very hard, since social control measures are such crude, blunt instruments.

    So I don't know.

    How do you think it's all going to play out in SK? How tightly are the borders being controlled, for one thing? Koreans have never struck me as the most placid and long-suffering among the E Asians, so how long do you think people there will put up with restrictions on their day-to-day lives?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

  183. @peterike
    @HA


    Again, this is a magic/tragic lockdown that mysteriously causes deaths when it’s applied and then more deaths when it’s lifted
     
    You seem to have come up with a phrase you think is clever and are using it against all logic. Honestly I have no idea what you're talking about.

    The lockdown doesn't "mysteriously" cause deaths. It causes actual deaths for a host of reasons. Here's a start:


    More than 600 of the nation’s physicians sent a letter to President Trump this week calling the coronavirus shutdowns a “mass casualty incident” with “exponentially growing negative health consequences” to millions of non COVID patients.

    “The downstream health effects...are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error," according to the letter initiated by Simone Gold, M.D., an emergency medicine specialist in Los Angeles.

    “Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%,” the letter said. Other silent casualties: “150,000 Americans per month who would have had new cancer detected through routine screening.”
     

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemarieturner/2020/05/22/600-physicians-say-lockdowns-are-a-mass-casualty-incident/#74721deb50fa

    There's more here (it's a thread):

    https://twitter.com/cryptonephilim/status/1282046249819009026

    So lockdowns = more deaths. Blatantly obvious, really.

    While lockdowns may temporarily slow down the virus, they do nothing in the long run. That's why deaths "creep up" when lockdowns end. Nobody ever argued otherwise. In addition, there is well understood regional variation which is why the South spiked later, and is already on its way down sharply. Virus is gonna do what the virus is gonna do. The lockdown just adds thousands of additional deaths and millions of ruined lives, destroyed businesses, etc. It's the most cosmically stupid public health decision in history, especially considering how obviously wrong it was to anyone paying attention.

    Replies: @HA

    “The lockdown doesn’t “mysteriously” cause deaths. It causes actual deaths for a host of reasons.”

    No one’s disputing that. The mystery comes from the fact that when deaths first started spiking, the truthers blamed it not on the virus, but on the lockdowns. (That’s right, they were blaming stuff like this on just the lockdowns, and if you doubt me, I’ll track down the sleazy post-hoc-propter-hoc “studies” that claimed exactly that.) And yet, when the lockdowns were eased, we had yet another increase in deaths, which is the point of this whole thread, (Did you not happen to notice the word “hump” in the title of Sailer’s post? That’s what we’re talking about.)

    So apparently, these magical/mystical lockdowns somehow manage to cause a spike in deaths both when they’re applied, and then another hump when they’re lifted and/or eased. Just like crazy old grandpa’s walks to and from school in the bitter rain and snow that managed to go uphill both ways, and just about as believable.

    [MORE]

    And you’re STILL quoting Wittkowski? The guy who predicted that only 10,000 would die? And then, once that number had been blown through, like the weasel that he is, changed that to “I meant to say, up to 100,000”? And that was a couple of months ago. Any guesses on what his updated excuse will be now that the 150K mark has been passed? Anyway, if he’s still your man, you’re doing a great job of making those truthers look good there, champ. Let’s all remember that the next time some other fool comes in here wagging his finger at Steve Sailer and claiming he’s the one who owes everyone an apology, as opposed to people like you.

    “Virus is gonna do what the virus is gonna do.”

    Yeah, sure, assuming — as I mentioned elsewhere — that there is A) no effective vaccine, B) no cure, C) no improved treatment, D) no improved preventatives, E) no mutation of the virus to some milder form (as maybe happened with Spanish flu), F) no way to better identify those who will suffer serious consequences, etc.

    A whole lot of assumptions there, but assuming they all line up into place — and they certainly might — then yeah, in that particular case, the virus is gonna do what it’s gonna do. But given how well the forecasts of you and people like you (e.g. Wittkowski) have turned out thus far, I’m not betting the farm on that one either.

  184. @Matt Buckalew
    @Corvinus

    Is that anime? I’m sorry I was too busy playing sports and getting laid in high school.

    I’m gonna put that down as a no you haven’t fucked in the past twelve months.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    Is that anime? I’m sorry I was too busy playing sports and getting laid in high school.”

    LOL, so says the Secret King. The more that an anonymous has to tell their story about their supposed successes and conquests on a blog, the more they act like a teenage girl striving for attention and relevance.

    • Replies: @Matt Buckalew
    @Corvinus

    I’m not anonymous though- remember that’s you.

    Your transparent envy is adorable though. It’s like you think tall good looking kids with rich parents are like 5 year piano prodigies. There are many people better at sports than me, taller than me, and with parents much richer than mine. Hell I only went to the third best Ivy League school. Not many people better looking than me but there are certainly a few. And if it’s any consolation I’m a Christian so any fucking I’m doing is admittedly a sin and isn’t one tenth as frequent as what you are imagining in your fevered hate fantasies.

    Replies: @Corvinus

  185. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    " Sweden has a death-rate lower than New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, the UK, Belgium, Spain" - Not when you account for the population density. Sweden when compared to economically and culturally similar Scandinavian countries like Denmark, Finland and Norway did about from 6 (Denmark) to 12 (Norway) times worse. Which means that if Sweden followed Norway that has similar population density to Sweden 91% of 5,760 dead Swedes would be still alive.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Sweden has a larger population than Denmark and combined…..and Sweden has five times the number of refugees of Norway and Denmark combined.

    So the demographics of Sweden is different. With so many foreigners in the cities , the Swedes may have been attempting to ethnically cleansed their cities, if this was the plan , it failed. COVID-19 was not strong enough to kill many people in Sweden, despite keeping schools, restaurants and churches open..New Jersey did far worse , and they locked down completely in NJ , yet 15,600 died in NJ compared to 5,700 in all of Sweden.

    NJ had 3 times the deaths as Sweden , despite having a younger and smaller population. The lockdowns failed. No evidence they worked here in America.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    "the demographics of Sweden is different. With so many foreigners in the cities...The lockdowns failed. No evidence they worked here in America."

    On the contrary, even today, America still has fewer COVID deaths per capita than Sweden, despite having plenty of foreigners in its cities and far fewer Nordics (who have overall proven to be far more conducive to culturally-normed social distancing, vitamin D absorption, etc.)

    If that's not evidence, then stop pretending that evidence matters to you one way or the other.

    US per capita COVID deaths: 162,783 / 328.2 million = 0.049%
    Sweden per capita COVID deaths: 5,766 / 10.23 million = 0.056%

    Again that also needs to be adjusted for the other factors I mentioned, which would make the difference far more significant.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    , @utu
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    "Swedes may have been attempting to ethnically cleansed their cities" - Wow. You should report Sweden to Hague Intenational Court.

    "despite keeping schools, restaurants and churches open" - No exactly.


    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/sweden-is-the-model/#comment-3879464
    “Saying Sweden really did follow our policies because Swedes are natural social distancers.” – This is true. Sweden is practicing social distancing. Look at movie theaters attendance in Sweden which we are told does not practice social distancing vs. Norway and Denmark who shut down all movie theaters. (graph from Steve Sailer)

    https://i.ibb.co/4ssQWzy/Graph14.png

    In Sweden 20%-25% of population lives in single-person households comparing to 5% in Italy and 3% in Spain. 40% of seniors live in one person senior household.
    https://www.oecd.org/els/family/HM1-4-Living-arrangements-age-groups.pdf
    “In the case of Sweden, with about 660,000 second homes, a full 54.2% of the population own or have access to a second home through relatives and friends, making it a widespread phenomenon.”
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14616688.2017.1331260?needAccess=true
     
  186. @DanHessinMD
    I believe the purpose of this post is to drive me insane. Me personally.

    "If this really was a peak for deaths, it looks like the Case Fatality Rate has dropped about, say, 75% since April, due to some uncertain combination of more testing and better treatment. "

    Literally no mention of the large herd of elephants milling about the room. Is the seasonality obvious only to me?

    Just look at these numbers (see table below) fresh from this morning from worldometers.info :

    In Florida deaths/confirmed case is 0.015 but in New York it is 0.073. Is Florida medicine and age profile so much better than New York's? Florida is a very old state and medicine is not regarded as more advanced in Florida than in New York. Both had to deal with COVID early and Florida's age profile is particularly skewed old. In fact Florida is typically the retirement destination for aging New Yorkers.

    In Mississippi deaths/confirmed case is 0.028 but in Massachusetts it is 0.072. Is Mississippi medicine and age profile so much better than Massachusetts's? Mississippi is very poor and 40% black, and known to lag socioeconomically. Massachusetts is very wealthy and just 7% black, and known for its advanced medicine and socioeconomic success. If anything, you would expect a much higher CFR in Mississippi than in Massachusetts. But Massachusetts has cold winters, which translates into dry indoor air in the colder months.

    In Georgia and Alabama, deaths/confirmed case are 0.019 and 0.017 respectively. In Michigan and Connecticut they are 0.069 and 0.088 respectively. Is Georgia so much younger and medically superior to Michigan? Is impoverished and 30% black Alabama so much younger and more medically advanced than wealthy Connecticut which is just 10% black? Of course not. You would expect Alabama to have a much higher CFR than Connecticut, but instead it is more than 5 times lower. This is an incredibly dramatic difference that is inexplicable until you realize that humidity (including indoor humidity) is such a dominant factor for COVID-19 survival.

    People buy humidifiers for respiratory health. They have been doing this for generations. This isn't snake oil. We see mortality drop by 75% in the summer and humidity is the only available variable because everyone is inside most of the time and the temperature indoors is 72 degrees year round.

    This is a sophisticated practical joke on me by the operators of the simulation right? It cannot be that the most blindingly obvious remedy to this once in a century pandemic, indoor humidification in winter, is obvious only to me, can it?

    Maybe the dramatic decline in COVID mortality across the northern hemisphere is just God's special grace, with no natural cause.

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Humidity could be another reason vaping nicotine reduced risk of being hospitalized with COVID.

    Vaping brings humidity straight into the lungs with nicotine which binds to to same receptors targeted by the virus, thus preventing infections.

    Humidity is a factor, but people in Florida get much more vitamin D than New Yorkers.

    Probably the higher levels of vitamins D , along with the humidity helps reduce CV fatalities.

  187. @utu
    @ES

    "NYC “quarantining” 35 states. " - They should have done it much sooner. NYC and NYS made a great progress in reducing daily infections though still they are doing worse than Italy with 3 times population but if they continue and prevent importing new infections they have a chance to quash the virus. NYS and surrounding states (CT, MA, VT, NJ, RI) should go for virus elimination that among non Asian countries only New Zealand aimed at and succeeded.


    'A matter of when not if': New Zealand begins battle against 'Covid fatigue'
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/05/a-matter-of-when-not-if-new-zealand-begins-battle-against-covid-fatigue

    It has been 97 days since the last domestic case of Covid-19 was transmitted from an unknown source in New Zealand; all 24 diagnosed instances of the virus are among travellers returning to the country who are in quarantine at government-managed isolation hotels.

    A strict lockdown of the country in March and April quashed the spread of the virus, with fewer than 1,500 cases confirmed and 22 deaths. All restrictions on daily life except border controls were lifted two months ago.
     

    For some unknown (one may speculate why) reasons the virus elimination strategy was never put on the table in Europe or in the US. Instead we were offered a false alternative of 'curve flattening' vs. 'herd immunity'. The latter was not acceptable while the former put us in what A. Karlin called idiot's limbo (**). Was New Zealand beyond the reach of the Sauron Eye?

    (**) A. Karlin: “So we got a kind of idiot’s limbo where r0 fell to 0.6-1.0 (instead of the 0.3 observed in “cybergulag” Wuhan), failing to stamp out the epidemic, but the economy collapsed anyway.”
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-probably-out-of-control-in-dagestan/#comment-3906817

     

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    Cuomo was against a quarantine when Trump suggested a quarantine to protect the other 48 states from NY and NJ. He also mocked Trump for imposing a quarantine on European nations.

    Now he has quarantined the vast majority of the United States., but allows international flights to bring thousands of foreigners each day into NYC.

  188. HA says:
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @utu

    Sweden has a larger population than Denmark and combined.....and Sweden has five times the number of refugees of Norway and Denmark combined.

    So the demographics of Sweden is different. With so many foreigners in the cities , the Swedes may have been attempting to ethnically cleansed their cities, if this was the plan , it failed. COVID-19 was not strong enough to kill many people in Sweden, despite keeping schools, restaurants and churches open..New Jersey did far worse , and they locked down completely in NJ , yet 15,600 died in NJ compared to 5,700 in all of Sweden.

    NJ had 3 times the deaths as Sweden , despite having a younger and smaller population. The lockdowns failed. No evidence they worked here in America.

    Replies: @HA, @utu

    “the demographics of Sweden is different. With so many foreigners in the cities…The lockdowns failed. No evidence they worked here in America.”

    On the contrary, even today, America still has fewer COVID deaths per capita than Sweden, despite having plenty of foreigners in its cities and far fewer Nordics (who have overall proven to be far more conducive to culturally-normed social distancing, vitamin D absorption, etc.)

    If that’s not evidence, then stop pretending that evidence matters to you one way or the other.

    US per capita COVID deaths: 162,783 / 328.2 million = 0.049%
    Sweden per capita COVID deaths: 5,766 / 10.23 million = 0.056%

    Again that also needs to be adjusted for the other factors I mentioned, which would make the difference far more significant.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    On the contrary, even today, America still has fewer COVID deaths per capita than Sweden, despite having plenty of foreigners in its cities and far fewer Nordics (who have overall proven to be far more conducive to culturally-normed social distancing, vitamin D absorption, etc.)
     
    This is meaningless. America is a big country with lots of different regions, and degree of lockdown was determined by governors and local officials, not the federal government. A better comparison is how Sweden did compared to the various states. Sweden's overall death-rate is about the same as that of Pennsylvania, better than that of New York State, New Jersey, or Michigan. Way better than Massachusetts. Way-way better than New York City. All of them had fairly draconian lockdowns.

    Moreover, Sweden has a lower death rate than Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the UK.

    Replies: @HA

  189. @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    @utu

    Sweden has a larger population than Denmark and combined.....and Sweden has five times the number of refugees of Norway and Denmark combined.

    So the demographics of Sweden is different. With so many foreigners in the cities , the Swedes may have been attempting to ethnically cleansed their cities, if this was the plan , it failed. COVID-19 was not strong enough to kill many people in Sweden, despite keeping schools, restaurants and churches open..New Jersey did far worse , and they locked down completely in NJ , yet 15,600 died in NJ compared to 5,700 in all of Sweden.

    NJ had 3 times the deaths as Sweden , despite having a younger and smaller population. The lockdowns failed. No evidence they worked here in America.

    Replies: @HA, @utu

    “Swedes may have been attempting to ethnically cleansed their cities” – Wow. You should report Sweden to Hague Intenational Court.

    “despite keeping schools, restaurants and churches open” – No exactly.

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/sweden-is-the-model/#comment-3879464
    “Saying Sweden really did follow our policies because Swedes are natural social distancers.” – This is true. Sweden is practicing social distancing. Look at movie theaters attendance in Sweden which we are told does not practice social distancing vs. Norway and Denmark who shut down all movie theaters. (graph from Steve Sailer)

    In Sweden 20%-25% of population lives in single-person households comparing to 5% in Italy and 3% in Spain. 40% of seniors live in one person senior household.
    https://www.oecd.org/els/family/HM1-4-Living-arrangements-age-groups.pdf
    “In the case of Sweden, with about 660,000 second homes, a full 54.2% of the population own or have access to a second home through relatives and friends, making it a widespread phenomenon.”
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14616688.2017.1331260?needAccess=true

  190. @Mr. Anon
    @utu

    40% of Sweden's COVID deaths are in Stockholm, which is presumably the densest part of Sweden. The numbers are the numbers. And Sweden's overall death-rate is less than lots of other countries, including many of those that treated their own citizens has convicted felons. Japan has high population density, and extensive use of public transport, and has a corona death-rate lower than that of Norway.

    The lockdowns are bulls**t.

    Replies: @utu

    “treated their own citizens has convicted felons” – A deranged lolbertarian?

    “Japan has high population density, and extensive use of public transport, and has a corona death-rate lower than that of Norway.” – This is true but Japan has universal mask policy to which they adhere since 1920s and they imposed the state of emergency where they advised people what to do and what not to do which amounted to de facto lockdowns. Some also speculate that East Asians may have extra immunity to corona viruses but this has not been proven.

    Coronavirus: Japan’s mysteriously low virus death rate
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

    If you were to listen to Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, it is down to the “superior quality” of Japanese people. In a now notorious comment, Mr Aso said he had been asked by leaders of other countries to explain Japan’s success.

    “I told these people: ‘Between your country and our country, mindo (the level of people) is different.’ And that made them speechless and quiet.”

    Their mindo is different. They are not cursed with recalcitrant antisocial elements that America is full of among white lolbertarians and colored lumpenproletariat who get offended thinking that they are being treated as convicted felons (even if many of them are convicted felons) when asked to be just conscientious, cooperative and considerate.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @utu


    This is true but Japan has universal mask policy to which they adhere since 1920s and they imposed the state of emergency where they advised people what to do and what not to do which amounted to de facto lockdowns. Some also speculate that East Asians may have extra immunity to corona viruses but this has not been proven.
     
    They don't have a universal mask policy. A lot of people wear them - certainly a lot more than ever wore them here, but it is not mandatory. According to James Corbett, who lives there, they had no universal lockdown - a few schools and shopping malls were shut down for a time, moreso in the bigger cities, but the government admitted that it has no legal authority to order business to close and so it didn't do so. It is true that they have a greater sense of duty to the group than Americans do.

    The fact remains - degree of lockdown, from none to heavy, is uncorrelated with overall death-rate (the only rate which can be ascertained with any reliability). Moreover, Andrew Cuomo even admitted that most - fully two thirds - of those who were admitted to hospitals with Coronavirus during the first lockdown were people who had been sheltering at home and hardly going out. Or, in other words, people who most took the lockdown to heart were most likely to get infected.
    , @Chrisnonymous
    @utu

    I usually agree with your comments about Asia-related things, but in this case you are completely wrong.

    It is true that Japanese people have been less vocally opposed than Americans to their governments dictates, but not entirely so. Just last night, the national news had a segment on people's dissatisfaction with masks, featuring man-on-the-street interviews with complainers.

    But more importantly, although people have been more compliant about masks and distancing, Japan is experiencing a second wave now worse than the initial one. Instructively (for us), however, they are not doing a second State of Emergency in response. The reason is that their fatality rate doesn't justify it. They realize that although it is best to try to keep the daily infection rates down, it isn't worth shutting down businesses*.

    The reason the fatality rate is so low is suspected to be because of Japan's lack of both obesity and diabetes epidemic. For people who are actually on top of the science, it is clear that metabolic derangement is a major factor in COVID severity. On the TV news the other night, some doctor they were interviewing actually said the difference is that Japan doesn't have as many "fatties" as the USA. Unfortunately, I can't find this statement reported in an English language news source. Howevsr, the fact that the scientific establishment is on board with this way of thinking is revealed in the fact that Japan was so quick to approve dexamethasone as a treatment. In the US, where people are still focused on the respiratory angle and preventing infection, the dexamethasone study didn't have a big impact. However, in Japan, they jumped on the idea of a systemic anti-inflammatory immediately.

    Japan has the lowest average BMI among developed nations, and their elderly people are generally less frail than in the west. These are the two biggest factors contributing to Japan's low fatality rate despite its inability to prevent a second wave with mask wearing.



    (* Yes, I know the State of Emergency was not an actual lockdown order, but many companies responded by shutting down. My employer was closed for several weeks under the previous SoE, but now they are staying open despite the high infection rate because the gov't hasn't gone to that place again.)

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

  191. @Buddy Stevenson
    @Almost Missouri

    How can there be herd immunity when antibodies for this coronavirus (and others) only last a few months?

    Replies: @dfordoom, @BB753, @Almost Missouri

    There’s more to immunity than antibodies.

  192. @jon
    @The Last Real Calvinist


    But in the broader scheme of things, this ‘virus-free’ goal is likely backing your country into a corner — you can’t socially distance and mask and quarantine and slam shut borders forever.
     
    Korea doesn't actually have a 'virus-free' goal and they have never had a hard-core social distancing/lockdown/SIP type mandate (not even during the initial breakout in Daegu). The only mandatory requirements during this entire epidemic were related to schools - the were delayed, then online for a period, and now they are face-to-face. No business was ever required to shut down (though some of the more obviously dangerous ones did because there were no willing customers), and there were no restrictions on movement or outdoor recreation. I know people who lived in Daegu that were going to work everyday right in the middle of the outbreak.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Yes, that sounds exactly like HK.

    I hope SK can maintain this delicate balance. It worked here in HK for a couple of months — and now it’s not working anymore. The situation is much the same in Australia, which looked as if it had ‘beat the virus’, but now is having an outbreak.

    We’re not on total lockdown here in HK even now, either. Most stores are open, some people are still going to work, etc. But all public assemblies are off again (e.g. churches), restaurants are open only in the daytime, and people are discouraged from patronizing them unless necessary (e.g. construction workers who can’t take a lunch along with them every day), all forms of public entertainment are completely shut down, and office workers are all back home again.

    Schools here also went back F2F to finish off the 2019-2020 school year, but have been told to expect online only to begin the Autumn 2020 school year, and then until further notice.

    What gets me down here — and you see the same thing in other countries, of course — is absolutely no clear idea of what the overall goal is anymore. ‘Bending the curve’, or whatever it was, is so out of date now that I can’t even recall if I’ve got the phrase right.

    So is the goal virus elimination? Seems unrealistic at this point. You say SK doesn’t have this goal, but I wonder. The HK government also never officially declared this, either, but then its actions, and public perceptions, have assumed it anyway. When your society really does have a period in which there are no new cases, much less any deaths, lots of people forget all about more modest and realistic long-term control measures, and simply assume they should be forever ‘safe’ from the virus.

    Or is the goal hanging on in a lockdown ‘holding pattern’ until a vaccine lands? There’s a lot of promises being made for just-around-the-corner vaccines, but there are no guarantees, and it already looks as if any vaccine that appears will spark a huge controversy between those who will claw over Grandma to get it, and those who will spurn it as Satan-juice distributed by the Global Hegemons.

    Or is the goal striking an ongoing, semi-permanent, ‘sensible balance’ that allows for about 80%-normal life, like in many E Asian countries, and hoping that the daily case rate stays low enough that no one panics and demands more lockdown? This still sounds reasonable to me, but the current situation in HK (and Oz, and Japan) indicates that this is a highly precarious scenario. The whiplash reaction to HK’s fairly minimal current ‘outbreak’ suggests that people quickly reset their expectations in ways that make striking this balance very, very hard, since social control measures are such crude, blunt instruments.

    So I don’t know.

    How do you think it’s all going to play out in SK? How tightly are the borders being controlled, for one thing? Koreans have never struck me as the most placid and long-suffering among the E Asians, so how long do you think people there will put up with restrictions on their day-to-day lives?

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    A la Moldbug, this is a problem with Democracy. The leaders have trouble changing direction now because they staked their reputation on this strategy and convinced everyone to go along with it. Japan's case rate is worse now than when they declared a State of Emergency earlier this year, but they aren't doing that again. This kind of "look the other way and hope no one talks about it" strategy is the best you can hope for. Unfortunately, in the US, it's been politicized so much that not just the politicians but the entire elite class are invested in it.

    In Hong Kong, to what extent do you think continuing lockdown might be because of its political utility for the CCP?

  193. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "treated their own citizens has convicted felons" - A deranged lolbertarian?

    "Japan has high population density, and extensive use of public transport, and has a corona death-rate lower than that of Norway." - This is true but Japan has universal mask policy to which they adhere since 1920s and they imposed the state of emergency where they advised people what to do and what not to do which amounted to de facto lockdowns. Some also speculate that East Asians may have extra immunity to corona viruses but this has not been proven.


    Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

    If you were to listen to Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, it is down to the "superior quality" of Japanese people. In a now notorious comment, Mr Aso said he had been asked by leaders of other countries to explain Japan's success.

    "I told these people: 'Between your country and our country, mindo (the level of people) is different.' And that made them speechless and quiet."
     

    Their mindo is different. They are not cursed with recalcitrant antisocial elements that America is full of among white lolbertarians and colored lumpenproletariat who get offended thinking that they are being treated as convicted felons (even if many of them are convicted felons) when asked to be just conscientious, cooperative and considerate.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

    This is true but Japan has universal mask policy to which they adhere since 1920s and they imposed the state of emergency where they advised people what to do and what not to do which amounted to de facto lockdowns. Some also speculate that East Asians may have extra immunity to corona viruses but this has not been proven.

    They don’t have a universal mask policy. A lot of people wear them – certainly a lot more than ever wore them here, but it is not mandatory. According to James Corbett, who lives there, they had no universal lockdown – a few schools and shopping malls were shut down for a time, moreso in the bigger cities, but the government admitted that it has no legal authority to order business to close and so it didn’t do so. It is true that they have a greater sense of duty to the group than Americans do.

    The fact remains – degree of lockdown, from none to heavy, is uncorrelated with overall death-rate (the only rate which can be ascertained with any reliability). Moreover, Andrew Cuomo even admitted that most – fully two thirds – of those who were admitted to hospitals with Coronavirus during the first lockdown were people who had been sheltering at home and hardly going out. Or, in other words, people who most took the lockdown to heart were most likely to get infected.

  194. @HA
    @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    "the demographics of Sweden is different. With so many foreigners in the cities...The lockdowns failed. No evidence they worked here in America."

    On the contrary, even today, America still has fewer COVID deaths per capita than Sweden, despite having plenty of foreigners in its cities and far fewer Nordics (who have overall proven to be far more conducive to culturally-normed social distancing, vitamin D absorption, etc.)

    If that's not evidence, then stop pretending that evidence matters to you one way or the other.

    US per capita COVID deaths: 162,783 / 328.2 million = 0.049%
    Sweden per capita COVID deaths: 5,766 / 10.23 million = 0.056%

    Again that also needs to be adjusted for the other factors I mentioned, which would make the difference far more significant.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    On the contrary, even today, America still has fewer COVID deaths per capita than Sweden, despite having plenty of foreigners in its cities and far fewer Nordics (who have overall proven to be far more conducive to culturally-normed social distancing, vitamin D absorption, etc.)

    This is meaningless. America is a big country with lots of different regions, and degree of lockdown was determined by governors and local officials, not the federal government. A better comparison is how Sweden did compared to the various states. Sweden’s overall death-rate is about the same as that of Pennsylvania, better than that of New York State, New Jersey, or Michigan. Way better than Massachusetts. Way-way better than New York City. All of them had fairly draconian lockdowns.

    Moreover, Sweden has a lower death rate than Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the UK.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "This is meaningless. America is a big country with lots of different regions, and degree of lockdown was determined by governors and local officials, not the federal government. A better comparison is how Sweden did compared to the various states."

    Fine. Let's just focus on Sweden's neighbors, who are in most all respects far more similar than the US is, and therefore make for an even fairer comparison. Alas, as the previous comments have already pointed out, and as I already noted in the last sentence of my previous comment (assuming you even got that far), that makes Sweden look even worse. So again, that's fine by me.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  195. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @jon

    Yes, that sounds exactly like HK.

    I hope SK can maintain this delicate balance. It worked here in HK for a couple of months -- and now it's not working anymore. The situation is much the same in Australia, which looked as if it had 'beat the virus', but now is having an outbreak.

    We're not on total lockdown here in HK even now, either. Most stores are open, some people are still going to work, etc. But all public assemblies are off again (e.g. churches), restaurants are open only in the daytime, and people are discouraged from patronizing them unless necessary (e.g. construction workers who can't take a lunch along with them every day), all forms of public entertainment are completely shut down, and office workers are all back home again.

    Schools here also went back F2F to finish off the 2019-2020 school year, but have been told to expect online only to begin the Autumn 2020 school year, and then until further notice.

    What gets me down here -- and you see the same thing in other countries, of course -- is absolutely no clear idea of what the overall goal is anymore. 'Bending the curve', or whatever it was, is so out of date now that I can't even recall if I've got the phrase right.

    So is the goal virus elimination? Seems unrealistic at this point. You say SK doesn't have this goal, but I wonder. The HK government also never officially declared this, either, but then its actions, and public perceptions, have assumed it anyway. When your society really does have a period in which there are no new cases, much less any deaths, lots of people forget all about more modest and realistic long-term control measures, and simply assume they should be forever 'safe' from the virus.

    Or is the goal hanging on in a lockdown 'holding pattern' until a vaccine lands? There's a lot of promises being made for just-around-the-corner vaccines, but there are no guarantees, and it already looks as if any vaccine that appears will spark a huge controversy between those who will claw over Grandma to get it, and those who will spurn it as Satan-juice distributed by the Global Hegemons.

    Or is the goal striking an ongoing, semi-permanent, 'sensible balance' that allows for about 80%-normal life, like in many E Asian countries, and hoping that the daily case rate stays low enough that no one panics and demands more lockdown? This still sounds reasonable to me, but the current situation in HK (and Oz, and Japan) indicates that this is a highly precarious scenario. The whiplash reaction to HK's fairly minimal current 'outbreak' suggests that people quickly reset their expectations in ways that make striking this balance very, very hard, since social control measures are such crude, blunt instruments.

    So I don't know.

    How do you think it's all going to play out in SK? How tightly are the borders being controlled, for one thing? Koreans have never struck me as the most placid and long-suffering among the E Asians, so how long do you think people there will put up with restrictions on their day-to-day lives?

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    A la Moldbug, this is a problem with Democracy. The leaders have trouble changing direction now because they staked their reputation on this strategy and convinced everyone to go along with it. Japan’s case rate is worse now than when they declared a State of Emergency earlier this year, but they aren’t doing that again. This kind of “look the other way and hope no one talks about it” strategy is the best you can hope for. Unfortunately, in the US, it’s been politicized so much that not just the politicians but the entire elite class are invested in it.

    In Hong Kong, to what extent do you think continuing lockdown might be because of its political utility for the CCP?

  196. @utu
    @Mr. Anon

    "treated their own citizens has convicted felons" - A deranged lolbertarian?

    "Japan has high population density, and extensive use of public transport, and has a corona death-rate lower than that of Norway." - This is true but Japan has universal mask policy to which they adhere since 1920s and they imposed the state of emergency where they advised people what to do and what not to do which amounted to de facto lockdowns. Some also speculate that East Asians may have extra immunity to corona viruses but this has not been proven.


    Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

    If you were to listen to Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, it is down to the "superior quality" of Japanese people. In a now notorious comment, Mr Aso said he had been asked by leaders of other countries to explain Japan's success.

    "I told these people: 'Between your country and our country, mindo (the level of people) is different.' And that made them speechless and quiet."
     

    Their mindo is different. They are not cursed with recalcitrant antisocial elements that America is full of among white lolbertarians and colored lumpenproletariat who get offended thinking that they are being treated as convicted felons (even if many of them are convicted felons) when asked to be just conscientious, cooperative and considerate.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @Chrisnonymous

    I usually agree with your comments about Asia-related things, but in this case you are completely wrong.

    It is true that Japanese people have been less vocally opposed than Americans to their governments dictates, but not entirely so. Just last night, the national news had a segment on people’s dissatisfaction with masks, featuring man-on-the-street interviews with complainers.

    But more importantly, although people have been more compliant about masks and distancing, Japan is experiencing a second wave now worse than the initial one. Instructively (for us), however, they are not doing a second State of Emergency in response. The reason is that their fatality rate doesn’t justify it. They realize that although it is best to try to keep the daily infection rates down, it isn’t worth shutting down businesses*.

    The reason the fatality rate is so low is suspected to be because of Japan’s lack of both obesity and diabetes epidemic. For people who are actually on top of the science, it is clear that metabolic derangement is a major factor in COVID severity. On the TV news the other night, some doctor they were interviewing actually said the difference is that Japan doesn’t have as many “fatties” as the USA. Unfortunately, I can’t find this statement reported in an English language news source. Howevsr, the fact that the scientific establishment is on board with this way of thinking is revealed in the fact that Japan was so quick to approve dexamethasone as a treatment. In the US, where people are still focused on the respiratory angle and preventing infection, the dexamethasone study didn’t have a big impact. However, in Japan, they jumped on the idea of a systemic anti-inflammatory immediately.

    Japan has the lowest average BMI among developed nations, and their elderly people are generally less frail than in the west. These are the two biggest factors contributing to Japan’s low fatality rate despite its inability to prevent a second wave with mask wearing.

    (* Yes, I know the State of Emergency was not an actual lockdown order, but many companies responded by shutting down. My employer was closed for several weeks under the previous SoE, but now they are staying open despite the high infection rate because the gov’t hasn’t gone to that place again.)

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Chrisnonymous

    Thanks for this update, Chris. It's interesting that Japan's government has responded quite differently to Wave 2 than HK's government, i.e. with milder measures instead of even tighter restrictions, like we have here.

    I'm not sure if there is any connection at all between COVID Wave 2 and the HK political scene, though. The second wave broke out here just after Beijing handed down the new security law, and also after July 1, i.e. Hong Kong's handover commemoration day, a public holiday on which there have been big demonstrations in the past few years, with something similar anticipated this year. So if anybody here were trying to manufacture/manipulate a second wave for political ends, they'd likely have done so earlier so the tighter restrictions would have already been in place at that time.

    It seems to me, as I mentioned above, that many people here have gotten used to the tacit goal of permanent elimination of/'safety from' COVID 19. HK is traditionally so efficient that this seems to strike a lot of people as a perfectly reasonable goal. And there are the examples of Macau and Taiwan, both of which are still suppressing the virus successfully.

    Or maybe the deciding factor is that in this second wave HK's seeing more deaths, so people are freaking out more than previously. Remarkably, there was a total of just six or seven deaths here from January all the way through June, but now there have been about 40 deaths in July/August. The main difference is that the virus didn't make it into the nursing homes until July, but now there have been some significant cases of this. As is the pattern in most places, the vast majority of fatalities are in the 70+ cohort.

    HK people also tend to be slim and active into old age, but some of the nursing homes here are pretty dire, so it's not a shock that they are highly vulnerable to rapid viral spread.

    Replies: @128, @Chrisnonymous

  197. HA says:
    @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    On the contrary, even today, America still has fewer COVID deaths per capita than Sweden, despite having plenty of foreigners in its cities and far fewer Nordics (who have overall proven to be far more conducive to culturally-normed social distancing, vitamin D absorption, etc.)
     
    This is meaningless. America is a big country with lots of different regions, and degree of lockdown was determined by governors and local officials, not the federal government. A better comparison is how Sweden did compared to the various states. Sweden's overall death-rate is about the same as that of Pennsylvania, better than that of New York State, New Jersey, or Michigan. Way better than Massachusetts. Way-way better than New York City. All of them had fairly draconian lockdowns.

    Moreover, Sweden has a lower death rate than Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the UK.

    Replies: @HA

    “This is meaningless. America is a big country with lots of different regions, and degree of lockdown was determined by governors and local officials, not the federal government. A better comparison is how Sweden did compared to the various states.”

    Fine. Let’s just focus on Sweden’s neighbors, who are in most all respects far more similar than the US is, and therefore make for an even fairer comparison. Alas, as the previous comments have already pointed out, and as I already noted in the last sentence of my previous comment (assuming you even got that far), that makes Sweden look even worse. So again, that’s fine by me.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    Fine. Let’s just focus on Sweden’s neighbors, who are in most all respects far more similar than the US is, and therefore make for an even fairer comparison.
     
    Sure - "Fine" - ignore the actual, tangible statistics that I quoted in favor of your misdirection.

    Anyway, who says Norway and Finland are comparible to Sweden anymore? Sweden has a lot more Blacks (who are more susceptible to SARS-COV-2) than Norway does.

    But - Fine - let's play your game:

    North Dakota - no lockdown - death rate: 0.015%

    Minnesota - lockdown - death rate 0.030%

    You guys just can't admit that the lockdowns had no effect other than to drive people nuts (as they were intended to do), rob us of our liberties (as they were intended to do), favor big business over small business (as they were intended to do), and tank the economy enough so that Trump would lose (as they were intended to do).

    The lockdowns were (are) bulls**t.

    Replies: @HA

  198. @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "This is meaningless. America is a big country with lots of different regions, and degree of lockdown was determined by governors and local officials, not the federal government. A better comparison is how Sweden did compared to the various states."

    Fine. Let's just focus on Sweden's neighbors, who are in most all respects far more similar than the US is, and therefore make for an even fairer comparison. Alas, as the previous comments have already pointed out, and as I already noted in the last sentence of my previous comment (assuming you even got that far), that makes Sweden look even worse. So again, that's fine by me.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Fine. Let’s just focus on Sweden’s neighbors, who are in most all respects far more similar than the US is, and therefore make for an even fairer comparison.

    Sure – “Fine” – ignore the actual, tangible statistics that I quoted in favor of your misdirection.

    Anyway, who says Norway and Finland are comparible to Sweden anymore? Sweden has a lot more Blacks (who are more susceptible to SARS-COV-2) than Norway does.

    But – Fine – let’s play your game:

    North Dakota – no lockdown – death rate: 0.015%

    Minnesota – lockdown – death rate 0.030%

    You guys just can’t admit that the lockdowns had no effect other than to drive people nuts (as they were intended to do), rob us of our liberties (as they were intended to do), favor big business over small business (as they were intended to do), and tank the economy enough so that Trump would lose (as they were intended to do).

    The lockdowns were (are) bulls**t.

    • Replies: @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "ignore the actual, tangible statistics that I quoted in favor of your misdirection."

    And that was already soundly rebutted. In particular, Sweden has a much higher per-capita death rate so that the original post about there being no evidence that lockdowns work is simply garbage. To repeat, Norway has about 10 times fewer deaths per capita. Ten times. Even if we assume that half the deaths in Sweden were from black people, trying to blame them still doesn't explain the difference.

    Face it, no amount of pathetic handwaving is going to change a ten-fold increase in death rates between countries as similar as those two are, any more than wishful thinking about how summer was supposed to "stop this thing in its tracks" or "we're almost at herd immunity" or any other corona-truther wishful thinking will suffice to vanish away a second hump, as Sailer put it, that none of the truthers predicted, but a fair number of the "doomers" did. Reality really did a number on you. You can deny it all you want, but at this point anyone who has listened to an anti-vaxxer prattle on has heard it all already.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  199. @Chrisnonymous
    @utu

    I usually agree with your comments about Asia-related things, but in this case you are completely wrong.

    It is true that Japanese people have been less vocally opposed than Americans to their governments dictates, but not entirely so. Just last night, the national news had a segment on people's dissatisfaction with masks, featuring man-on-the-street interviews with complainers.

    But more importantly, although people have been more compliant about masks and distancing, Japan is experiencing a second wave now worse than the initial one. Instructively (for us), however, they are not doing a second State of Emergency in response. The reason is that their fatality rate doesn't justify it. They realize that although it is best to try to keep the daily infection rates down, it isn't worth shutting down businesses*.

    The reason the fatality rate is so low is suspected to be because of Japan's lack of both obesity and diabetes epidemic. For people who are actually on top of the science, it is clear that metabolic derangement is a major factor in COVID severity. On the TV news the other night, some doctor they were interviewing actually said the difference is that Japan doesn't have as many "fatties" as the USA. Unfortunately, I can't find this statement reported in an English language news source. Howevsr, the fact that the scientific establishment is on board with this way of thinking is revealed in the fact that Japan was so quick to approve dexamethasone as a treatment. In the US, where people are still focused on the respiratory angle and preventing infection, the dexamethasone study didn't have a big impact. However, in Japan, they jumped on the idea of a systemic anti-inflammatory immediately.

    Japan has the lowest average BMI among developed nations, and their elderly people are generally less frail than in the west. These are the two biggest factors contributing to Japan's low fatality rate despite its inability to prevent a second wave with mask wearing.



    (* Yes, I know the State of Emergency was not an actual lockdown order, but many companies responded by shutting down. My employer was closed for several weeks under the previous SoE, but now they are staying open despite the high infection rate because the gov't hasn't gone to that place again.)

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Thanks for this update, Chris. It’s interesting that Japan’s government has responded quite differently to Wave 2 than HK’s government, i.e. with milder measures instead of even tighter restrictions, like we have here.

    I’m not sure if there is any connection at all between COVID Wave 2 and the HK political scene, though. The second wave broke out here just after Beijing handed down the new security law, and also after July 1, i.e. Hong Kong’s handover commemoration day, a public holiday on which there have been big demonstrations in the past few years, with something similar anticipated this year. So if anybody here were trying to manufacture/manipulate a second wave for political ends, they’d likely have done so earlier so the tighter restrictions would have already been in place at that time.

    It seems to me, as I mentioned above, that many people here have gotten used to the tacit goal of permanent elimination of/’safety from’ COVID 19. HK is traditionally so efficient that this seems to strike a lot of people as a perfectly reasonable goal. And there are the examples of Macau and Taiwan, both of which are still suppressing the virus successfully.

    Or maybe the deciding factor is that in this second wave HK’s seeing more deaths, so people are freaking out more than previously. Remarkably, there was a total of just six or seven deaths here from January all the way through June, but now there have been about 40 deaths in July/August. The main difference is that the virus didn’t make it into the nursing homes until July, but now there have been some significant cases of this. As is the pattern in most places, the vast majority of fatalities are in the 70+ cohort.

    HK people also tend to be slim and active into old age, but some of the nursing homes here are pretty dire, so it’s not a shock that they are highly vulnerable to rapid viral spread.

    • Replies: @128
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    China?

    , @Chrisnonymous
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Yes. Honestly, there is not much we can do to help nursing hone residents other than completely isolating, and I wonder how most nursing home patients feel about being isolated from their family at the end of their lives vs increased risk of dying a few years early.

    I think we will exit this pandemic with different perspectives on the world. Japanese news is covering reports that Chinese economy will surpass the US and Japan will drop to #4 or #5--as though this is unexpected. New paradigms for people to integrate.

    Take care in Hong Kong, TLRC. I have great memories from two special trips I made to Hong Kong--one staying in Chungking Mansions for a month and the other staying in The Peninsula hotel around the corner for a few days--but I doubt I will ever go there again. If you need to escape, please first go to the bar in the Felix on the top floor of The Peninsula at opening time and watch the sun set and the lights come on on the island. And have a martini for me.

    Replies: @128, @The Last Real Calvinist

  200. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Chrisnonymous

    Thanks for this update, Chris. It's interesting that Japan's government has responded quite differently to Wave 2 than HK's government, i.e. with milder measures instead of even tighter restrictions, like we have here.

    I'm not sure if there is any connection at all between COVID Wave 2 and the HK political scene, though. The second wave broke out here just after Beijing handed down the new security law, and also after July 1, i.e. Hong Kong's handover commemoration day, a public holiday on which there have been big demonstrations in the past few years, with something similar anticipated this year. So if anybody here were trying to manufacture/manipulate a second wave for political ends, they'd likely have done so earlier so the tighter restrictions would have already been in place at that time.

    It seems to me, as I mentioned above, that many people here have gotten used to the tacit goal of permanent elimination of/'safety from' COVID 19. HK is traditionally so efficient that this seems to strike a lot of people as a perfectly reasonable goal. And there are the examples of Macau and Taiwan, both of which are still suppressing the virus successfully.

    Or maybe the deciding factor is that in this second wave HK's seeing more deaths, so people are freaking out more than previously. Remarkably, there was a total of just six or seven deaths here from January all the way through June, but now there have been about 40 deaths in July/August. The main difference is that the virus didn't make it into the nursing homes until July, but now there have been some significant cases of this. As is the pattern in most places, the vast majority of fatalities are in the 70+ cohort.

    HK people also tend to be slim and active into old age, but some of the nursing homes here are pretty dire, so it's not a shock that they are highly vulnerable to rapid viral spread.

    Replies: @128, @Chrisnonymous

    China?

  201. As for Japan, it lacks legislation to force business to close, and specific local governments have already rolled back reopenings.

  202. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Chrisnonymous

    Thanks for this update, Chris. It's interesting that Japan's government has responded quite differently to Wave 2 than HK's government, i.e. with milder measures instead of even tighter restrictions, like we have here.

    I'm not sure if there is any connection at all between COVID Wave 2 and the HK political scene, though. The second wave broke out here just after Beijing handed down the new security law, and also after July 1, i.e. Hong Kong's handover commemoration day, a public holiday on which there have been big demonstrations in the past few years, with something similar anticipated this year. So if anybody here were trying to manufacture/manipulate a second wave for political ends, they'd likely have done so earlier so the tighter restrictions would have already been in place at that time.

    It seems to me, as I mentioned above, that many people here have gotten used to the tacit goal of permanent elimination of/'safety from' COVID 19. HK is traditionally so efficient that this seems to strike a lot of people as a perfectly reasonable goal. And there are the examples of Macau and Taiwan, both of which are still suppressing the virus successfully.

    Or maybe the deciding factor is that in this second wave HK's seeing more deaths, so people are freaking out more than previously. Remarkably, there was a total of just six or seven deaths here from January all the way through June, but now there have been about 40 deaths in July/August. The main difference is that the virus didn't make it into the nursing homes until July, but now there have been some significant cases of this. As is the pattern in most places, the vast majority of fatalities are in the 70+ cohort.

    HK people also tend to be slim and active into old age, but some of the nursing homes here are pretty dire, so it's not a shock that they are highly vulnerable to rapid viral spread.

    Replies: @128, @Chrisnonymous

    Yes. Honestly, there is not much we can do to help nursing hone residents other than completely isolating, and I wonder how most nursing home patients feel about being isolated from their family at the end of their lives vs increased risk of dying a few years early.

    I think we will exit this pandemic with different perspectives on the world. Japanese news is covering reports that Chinese economy will surpass the US and Japan will drop to #4 or #5–as though this is unexpected. New paradigms for people to integrate.

    Take care in Hong Kong, TLRC. I have great memories from two special trips I made to Hong Kong–one staying in Chungking Mansions for a month and the other staying in The Peninsula hotel around the corner for a few days–but I doubt I will ever go there again. If you need to escape, please first go to the bar in the Felix on the top floor of The Peninsula at opening time and watch the sun set and the lights come on on the island. And have a martini for me.

    • Replies: @128
    @Chrisnonymous

    I think the prime takeaway is that if you are willing to resort to Chinese methods, you can get on top of this, even with a country with a sixth of humanity's population and with an area the size of the US, I wonder if our prime noticer blogger noticed this? If you are not willing to resort to Chinese measures and you are India on the other hand...... For all you know India may have half a million dead already, considering the efficiency of its government.

    , @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Chrisnonymous


    I have great memories from two special trips I made to Hong Kong–one staying in Chungking Mansions for a month and the other staying in The Peninsula hotel around the corner for a few days–but I doubt I will ever go there again. If you need to escape, please first go to the bar in the Felix on the top floor of The Peninsula at opening time and watch the sun set and the lights come on on the island. And have a martini for me.

     

    Thanks for the good wishes, Chris, and all the best to you as well.

    In two trips, you've definitely experienced the extremes of HK. That's one of the best things about this insane city, i.e. that two tourist accommodations -- which are on the same street just a block apart -- are world-famous, one for multi-culti pseudo-dystopian squalor, and the other for supreme retro-colonial elegance.

    I've drunk martinis at Felix a few times. Haven't been for years, though; I should take your advice and go spend a bomb on booze, then spend a penny in the unsurpassable men's.

  203. @Chrisnonymous
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Yes. Honestly, there is not much we can do to help nursing hone residents other than completely isolating, and I wonder how most nursing home patients feel about being isolated from their family at the end of their lives vs increased risk of dying a few years early.

    I think we will exit this pandemic with different perspectives on the world. Japanese news is covering reports that Chinese economy will surpass the US and Japan will drop to #4 or #5--as though this is unexpected. New paradigms for people to integrate.

    Take care in Hong Kong, TLRC. I have great memories from two special trips I made to Hong Kong--one staying in Chungking Mansions for a month and the other staying in The Peninsula hotel around the corner for a few days--but I doubt I will ever go there again. If you need to escape, please first go to the bar in the Felix on the top floor of The Peninsula at opening time and watch the sun set and the lights come on on the island. And have a martini for me.

    Replies: @128, @The Last Real Calvinist

    I think the prime takeaway is that if you are willing to resort to Chinese methods, you can get on top of this, even with a country with a sixth of humanity’s population and with an area the size of the US, I wonder if our prime noticer blogger noticed this? If you are not willing to resort to Chinese measures and you are India on the other hand…… For all you know India may have half a million dead already, considering the efficiency of its government.

  204. HA says:
    @Mr. Anon
    @HA


    Fine. Let’s just focus on Sweden’s neighbors, who are in most all respects far more similar than the US is, and therefore make for an even fairer comparison.
     
    Sure - "Fine" - ignore the actual, tangible statistics that I quoted in favor of your misdirection.

    Anyway, who says Norway and Finland are comparible to Sweden anymore? Sweden has a lot more Blacks (who are more susceptible to SARS-COV-2) than Norway does.

    But - Fine - let's play your game:

    North Dakota - no lockdown - death rate: 0.015%

    Minnesota - lockdown - death rate 0.030%

    You guys just can't admit that the lockdowns had no effect other than to drive people nuts (as they were intended to do), rob us of our liberties (as they were intended to do), favor big business over small business (as they were intended to do), and tank the economy enough so that Trump would lose (as they were intended to do).

    The lockdowns were (are) bulls**t.

    Replies: @HA

    “ignore the actual, tangible statistics that I quoted in favor of your misdirection.”

    And that was already soundly rebutted. In particular, Sweden has a much higher per-capita death rate so that the original post about there being no evidence that lockdowns work is simply garbage. To repeat, Norway has about 10 times fewer deaths per capita. Ten times. Even if we assume that half the deaths in Sweden were from black people, trying to blame them still doesn’t explain the difference.

    Face it, no amount of pathetic handwaving is going to change a ten-fold increase in death rates between countries as similar as those two are, any more than wishful thinking about how summer was supposed to “stop this thing in its tracks” or “we’re almost at herd immunity” or any other corona-truther wishful thinking will suffice to vanish away a second hump, as Sailer put it, that none of the truthers predicted, but a fair number of the “doomers” did. Reality really did a number on you. You can deny it all you want, but at this point anyone who has listened to an anti-vaxxer prattle on has heard it all already.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @HA

    You are innumerate. I have given copious examples. With real numbers.

    You just keep shouting: Norway, Norway, Norway!

    Okay, Florence Henderson - keep singing that song.

    But degree of lockdown is completely uncorrelated with death rate.

    Those are the facts which you screaming hysterics are incapable of understanding.

  205. @Chrisnonymous
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    Yes. Honestly, there is not much we can do to help nursing hone residents other than completely isolating, and I wonder how most nursing home patients feel about being isolated from their family at the end of their lives vs increased risk of dying a few years early.

    I think we will exit this pandemic with different perspectives on the world. Japanese news is covering reports that Chinese economy will surpass the US and Japan will drop to #4 or #5--as though this is unexpected. New paradigms for people to integrate.

    Take care in Hong Kong, TLRC. I have great memories from two special trips I made to Hong Kong--one staying in Chungking Mansions for a month and the other staying in The Peninsula hotel around the corner for a few days--but I doubt I will ever go there again. If you need to escape, please first go to the bar in the Felix on the top floor of The Peninsula at opening time and watch the sun set and the lights come on on the island. And have a martini for me.

    Replies: @128, @The Last Real Calvinist

    I have great memories from two special trips I made to Hong Kong–one staying in Chungking Mansions for a month and the other staying in The Peninsula hotel around the corner for a few days–but I doubt I will ever go there again. If you need to escape, please first go to the bar in the Felix on the top floor of The Peninsula at opening time and watch the sun set and the lights come on on the island. And have a martini for me.

    Thanks for the good wishes, Chris, and all the best to you as well.

    In two trips, you’ve definitely experienced the extremes of HK. That’s one of the best things about this insane city, i.e. that two tourist accommodations — which are on the same street just a block apart — are world-famous, one for multi-culti pseudo-dystopian squalor, and the other for supreme retro-colonial elegance.

    I’ve drunk martinis at Felix a few times. Haven’t been for years, though; I should take your advice and go spend a bomb on booze, then spend a penny in the unsurpassable men’s.

  206. @HA
    @Mr. Anon

    "ignore the actual, tangible statistics that I quoted in favor of your misdirection."

    And that was already soundly rebutted. In particular, Sweden has a much higher per-capita death rate so that the original post about there being no evidence that lockdowns work is simply garbage. To repeat, Norway has about 10 times fewer deaths per capita. Ten times. Even if we assume that half the deaths in Sweden were from black people, trying to blame them still doesn't explain the difference.

    Face it, no amount of pathetic handwaving is going to change a ten-fold increase in death rates between countries as similar as those two are, any more than wishful thinking about how summer was supposed to "stop this thing in its tracks" or "we're almost at herd immunity" or any other corona-truther wishful thinking will suffice to vanish away a second hump, as Sailer put it, that none of the truthers predicted, but a fair number of the "doomers" did. Reality really did a number on you. You can deny it all you want, but at this point anyone who has listened to an anti-vaxxer prattle on has heard it all already.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    You are innumerate. I have given copious examples. With real numbers.

    You just keep shouting: Norway, Norway, Norway!

    Okay, Florence Henderson – keep singing that song.

    But degree of lockdown is completely uncorrelated with death rate.

    Those are the facts which you screaming hysterics are incapable of understanding.

  207. After running a fake American Indian account, she apologized “without reservation.”

  208. @Corvinus
    @Matt Buckalew

    Is that anime? I’m sorry I was too busy playing sports and getting laid in high school."

    LOL, so says the Secret King. The more that an anonymous has to tell their story about their supposed successes and conquests on a blog, the more they act like a teenage girl striving for attention and relevance.

    Replies: @Matt Buckalew

    I’m not anonymous though- remember that’s you.

    Your transparent envy is adorable though. It’s like you think tall good looking kids with rich parents are like 5 year piano prodigies. There are many people better at sports than me, taller than me, and with parents much richer than mine. Hell I only went to the third best Ivy League school. Not many people better looking than me but there are certainly a few. And if it’s any consolation I’m a Christian so any fucking I’m doing is admittedly a sin and isn’t one tenth as frequent as what you are imagining in your fevered hate fantasies.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @Matt Buckalew

    You’re pretending to be all of these things, Secret King.

  209. @Matt Buckalew
    @Corvinus

    I’m not anonymous though- remember that’s you.

    Your transparent envy is adorable though. It’s like you think tall good looking kids with rich parents are like 5 year piano prodigies. There are many people better at sports than me, taller than me, and with parents much richer than mine. Hell I only went to the third best Ivy League school. Not many people better looking than me but there are certainly a few. And if it’s any consolation I’m a Christian so any fucking I’m doing is admittedly a sin and isn’t one tenth as frequent as what you are imagining in your fevered hate fantasies.

    Replies: @Corvinus

    You’re pretending to be all of these things, Secret King.

  210. Going by the Population fatality ratio, we seem to have hit the mid-point at 500 per million today. At this rate, we should probably expect stability by around March 2021.

  211. @utu
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    I think I understand your cynicism. . For somebody from Romania the reality may appear as a grand conspiracy full of deceptions and gypsy hustlers. Fortunately the world is not Romania yet.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

    The fact that you can’t make new decent virologists overnight is well above the economic thinking of a Romanian. Most of my compatriots think that, if only there would be more money, everything would be better. My pessimistic opinion is based on ideas from The Mythical Man-Month.

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