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Joe Biden Has a Dr. Evil-Quality Vaccination Goal: "One ... MILLION ... Per Day!"
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After a pathetic start, vaccinations per day in the US have average 939,973 per day over the last week (which included the Martin Luther King Birthday 3-day weekend) according to Bloomberg:

Famously, Joe Biden’s big plan is to have 100 million Americans inoculated in his first 100 days, a lightning fast pace of [checks calculator] one MILLION per day that would get the whole county done in only 11 months, or perhaps longer due to taking time off for Black History Month, corporate-sponsored Gay Pride Parades, and other necessities.

In other news, when will we see definitive evidence out of Israel that its mass vaccination achievement are having the real world effects promised by the clinical trials? From the Financial Times:

Israel coronavirus cases soar even as it pushes on with vaccine drive

Lockdown extended amid estimates B.1.1.7 variant will account for most new infections by March

Mehul Srivastava in Tel Aviv and Clive Cookson in London 4 HOURS AGO

Coronavirus infections in Israel are soaring among those yet to be vaccinated, straining hospitals and forcing the government to extend a strict lockdown even as the country continues its breakneck vaccination drive.

Close to 2.3m Israelis — out of an adult population of just over 6m — have received their first shot of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, which provides some protection after 10 days of the jab. Just over 600,000 have received their second jabs, the government said Thursday.

But with daily new infections climbing past 10,000 this week and a record 720 deaths so far this month, hospital admissions continue to rise. …

The number of Israelis showing signs of infection dipped marginally, from 9.2 per cent of those tested to 9 per cent, this week.

But California, where vaccinations have been about an order of magnitude slower, is seeing a similar over-the-hump pattern this week.

The better way to analyze this question is not in national terms but among the vaccinated vs. the unvaccinated, or among the elderly (mostly inoculated) vs. the young (mostly not). So far, all I’ve heard along those lines is that Pfizer first dose does have a statistically noticeable effect in the third and final week after the first dose and just before the second dose, but it’s only about half as strong as the very high number reported in Pfizer’s clinical trial (a finding that helped lead to the UK’s quasi-First Doses First of prioritizing first doses over second doses)

Here’s roughly my timeline:

The lags from first dose of Pfizer vaccine are something like:
2 weeks to start reducing infections
1 week for infections to become cases
1 week for cases to become hospitalizations
2 weeks for hospitalizations to become deaths.
= 6 weeks
Israel is 4.8 weeks after first 1st dose on December 19.

So, I’m just being antsy right now. On the other hand, if we don’t have good data out of Israel by, say, Monday, February 1, then I will start to worry. Vaccines Work is a good Plan A. I’m not sure what Plan B is.

 
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  1. Plan B is Moderna, Russians & others, still appearing on the horizon.

    • Agree: James Speaks
    • Replies: @James Speaks
    @Bardon Kaldian


    Plan B is Moderna, Russians & others
     
    Seriously, if Sputnik were to be available, I would try to get my vaccine right away. Otherwise, I'm going to wait as long as I can to see if old people like me who have had have had their shots are not developing mysterious side effects.

    Such as paralysis and/or death.

    Replies: @James Speaks

  2. Vaccines Work is a good Plan A. I’m not sure what Plan B is.

    If we’re throwing in with all we know for Plan A, then Plan B is pretty straightforward.

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @Anonymous

    I loved looking at Shirley Eaton ... and thought "what a waste!" when she was gold plated.

    But that Bond villains never seemed to just due due diligence and just ... shoot the guy, make sure he was well and truly dead, very ridiculous.

  3. • Replies: @HA
    @YetAnotherAnon

    "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped"

    Yeah, this is the flipside of the argument that if the recommended dosage of the headache medicine is one tablet, you should take two or three if you want even more relief extra quickly. Sorry, that's just not how it generally works. Giving as many people as possible a half-dose of the vaccine before giving the other half might have seemed like a good idea, but it was never anything more than a gamble:


    The issue of some vaccines being less effective after a single dose rather than two is well known, as well as the fact that protection is not immediate... Pfizer itself says a single dose of its vaccine is about 52% effective[and the Israeli researchers think it may be less than that]. Some countries such as the UK have delayed administering their second doses to try to maximise the number of people given a first dose.
     
    The better news is that:

    those who had received their second dose of the Pfizer vaccine had a six- to 12-fold increase in antibodies...
     
    Again, when the clever end-runs fail to work their magic, you can always default to the actual instructions on the label.
    , @Aardvark
    @YetAnotherAnon

    And then this:

    Helsinki Committee to declare Pfizer performing unauthorized human experiment in Israel

    Can we get that committee to declare they are doing the same thing here?

  4. Just readjust the definitions of a Covid “case” and a Covid “death” and Biden will fix this crisis in no time. You’ll see.

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    @JimDandy



    Right On Cue For Biden, WHO Admits High-Cycle PCR Tests Produce Massive COVID False Positives

    Today, within an hour of Joe Biden being inaugurated and signing an executive order mandating masks on all federal property, the WHO sent out a notice to lab professionals using the PCR test. It said:

    WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1).

    The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load.

    Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

     

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  5. I’m at Peet’s in Marin and about 12 yards in front of my windshield are five CHPies standing in a circle about 3 feet apart, laughing and not wearing masks. I don’t wear one either, so just sayin’.

    • Replies: @Brad Anbro
    @Marty

    Neither do I! Thank you...

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Marty

    Alright, that's it, Marty! You go across the street and tell Ponch and John that they are on unpaid suspension pending remedial face diaper training. I want them back at the station prontomundo! *

    - Sergeant Getraer

    .


    * Tell 'em the 405's backed up, so hang a louie after Jim Rockford's trailer in Malibu, take the Ventura to the Santa Ana, take the del Rio cut-off through Placenta, then the surface streets just south of Fred Sanford's house in El Segundo.

    Replies: @Ganderson, @Possumman

    , @Paul Jolliffe
    @Marty

    Looks great!
    Why aren’t you out front under the umbrellas - you can’t check out the action on the street from inside!


    https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g33037-d4640133-Reviews-Peet_s_Coffee_Tea-San_Rafael_Marin_County_California.html#photos;aggregationId=&albumid=101&filter=7&ff=128229807

    Replies: @Marty

  6. “…out of an adult population of just over 6m …” – Is this a new thing that 2.3m of non Jews are not counted as Israel population? Are they not vaccinated either? Who is dying of Covid in Israel in official statistics? Jews only?

    • Replies: @anonymous
    @utu

    The adult population of Israel is around 6 million and that includes Jews and non-Jews. That is out of around 9 million total population for Israel. Almost a third of the population is under 18 due to huge birthrate of Haredi Jews, Bedouins (highest in the world at 10 average per woman), and, to a lesser extent, regular Muslim Arabs.

    , @Dacian Julien Soros
    @utu

    It is a high IQ thing. If China won the image contest for the country avoiding most cases, Israelis are aiming for the best vaccinator pretense. Superpower 2020 would have been the best manufacturer, were it not for the fire at the Serum Institute.

    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless. This became apparent as soon as September, so by this time, you would have hoped the the high-IQ US scientists, most of whom are Jews or Hindus too, would have bothered with proper treatments. They could have tried making antiviral molecules, instead of misleadingly rebranding remdesivir. They should have ramped up the study and eventually the industrial production of antiviral sera and antibodies, of the sort that Trump took. These are very obvious avenues if you look at other viral diseases (HIV, hep C, even varicella).

    But again, it takes a yuuge IQ to focus almost exclusively on a vaccine using an unproven method. It's on a par with pretending the millions of Palestinians don't exist. This is what you get when you assemble the largest Powerpoint producers in the world.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

  7. The number you should be looking at is hospitalizations and deaths. If the vaccine is protecting the elderly, the death toll should go down rapidly.

    • Agree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Art Deco

    The extraordinarily high level of false positives is finally making it over the fence into official circles now that the real threat seems finally averted.

    Plan B has always been get rid of Trump then act natural.

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle

  8. “Cases soar” and hospitals are “straining.”

    It’s behind the FT firewall — I refuse to give that globalist rag even a halfpenny — but God I hate journalists with a white hot hate.

    Are they doing the over-sensitive high cycle PCR tests and thus seeing “soaring” cases? And what does “straining” mean?

    Really, here is what we should have done.

    Have every healthy young person under the age of the 44 go to a CDC sponsored infection party at some local high school stadium. That’s 120 million people Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down and has Chinese food delivered for two weeks. The tiny 3 decimal place sliver of people who get REALLY sick check into a emergency room.

    We’re halfway to herd immunity by April 1st.

    • Agree: BB753, George Taylor
    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    This is actually a really good idea, although we might want to spread the COVID parties out over time, perhaps with a lottery system, just to make sure we don't get too big a boost in hospitalisations. Zero-point-whatever percent of 120 million is still a lot of people.

    Replies: @Ganderson

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia


    It’s behind the FT firewall — I refuse to give that globalist rag even a halfpenny
     
    Their crosswords are free of charge. Except for the Magazine's, which will cost more than a ha'penny.


    https://www.ft.com/crossword

    , @George Taylor
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia


    Have every healthy young person under the age of the 44 go to a CDC sponsored infection party at some local high school stadium. That’s 120 million people Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down and has Chinese food delivered for two weeks. The tiny 3 decimal place sliver of people who get REALLY sick check into a emergency room.
     
    That's been my theory for a while. Shutting down in person learning at college was dumb. We should have done just the opposite, send the youth off to school and lock them in. Let them get sick and over it.....
    , @U. Ranus
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia


    Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down
     
    Many places used to have just such a big public party right before fasting season. Won't be allowed this year of course... it could work.
  9. I was almost tricked into accepting that as an ambitious proposal.

    Then I realized that would take like ten months, or more.

  10. @Bardon Kaldian
    Plan B is Moderna, Russians & others, still appearing on the horizon.

    Replies: @James Speaks

    Plan B is Moderna, Russians & others

    Seriously, if Sputnik were to be available, I would try to get my vaccine right away. Otherwise, I’m going to wait as long as I can to see if old people like me who have had have had their shots are not developing mysterious side effects.

    Such as paralysis and/or death.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
    @James Speaks

    ... or redundancy

  11. In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way. That obviously isn’t ideal, but it’s hardly the apocalypse either. M&M rates among healthy working age people are minuscule, and the vulnerable can continue to self isolate. We certainly can’t lock down everyone forever, although I suspect our kind government overlords would love to try.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Moral Stone


    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way.
     
    In the second case of new strains, you start building herd immunity from scratch, starting with everyone who's already survived COVID-19. As Jack D notes, though, that'll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic. I'd also like a citation on your claim that morbidity "rates among healthy working age people are minuscule." I'm not following this, but I've gotten the impression its at least somewhat larger than that vague word.

    There's a possible exception for the starting all over, if the spike protein almost all current well progressed vaccine target is able to sufficiently mutate and still function, but the nucleocapsid protein which natural immunity also targets doesn't change enough, in which case new vaccines will be needed for those who got immunity that way, which obviously might target or also target that protein.

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique among RNA viruses, for which we have plenty of "eternal" vaccines. Against us is that no matter how suspiciously well adapted to humans SARS-CoV-2 is, it'll come under selection pressure to get around natural and vaccine immunity if we actually get enough people immune, which I personally am doubting will happen for years, if ever in terms of the world, and so far it looks like for many developed countries absent coercion (just one of many costs of a hostile ruling elite). And we presume that's what's happened with the U.K. mutation for example, except with a single human body with a wonky immune system that kept the person alive but allowed fierce ecological competition inside it.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Moral Stone, @Moral Stone

    , @Captain Tripps
    @Moral Stone

    I haven't been keeping up my commenting output, so cannot tap the "Agree" button. But I was going to post a comment very similar. So, "Agree".

    , @Anon
    @Moral Stone

    In case of a so-so vaccine which seems quite possible, the true option is to do actual medicine: early testing and early treatment. In this instance, a home treatment that will take care of the disease in the early stage and avoid hospital overflow.

    There is quite a case being built in France —and other places— that HCQ plus azithromycin does work, and it was deliberately blocked in order to sell a competing molecule, remdesivir. Gilead’s share price nearly doubled when the Lancet shot down HCQ in May 2020.
    Gilead sold 1 billion euros just to the EU regulator in a couple of months later, just before the WHO had to come out and say remdesivir didn’t work (it didn’t lower mortality.)

    Now that Trump and remdesivir are out, we are about to find out the vaccine won’t be a silver bullet (10-30% of the population will still need treatment, right?). There are shy mentions in media about Ivermectin, an old molecule that has been repurposed since last May for Covid 19. Also some rumblings about strains/mutations, which are known by the medical community since last April.

    Here’s an appeal to authority, with a (somewhat stilted) summary of Didier Raoult’s latest video on Covid vaccines:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LyCruMMM5s4

    1) He does not have a binary thinking on vaccine (always good or always bad). It is an individual choice in consultation with a doctor.
    2) He will apply French law. He will not do media public vaccination or say what he chose to do.
    3) As to Covid vaccines, due to time pressure, the samples to evaluate the security or efficacity of the vaccine have not been obtained. (2:40)
    4) Whether people in the long term, or over millions of individuals it can have unforeseeable side effects cannot be scientically said today.
    5) In the short term, (few months), and a few thousand of individuals, it is not dangerous. That we know.
    6) Thus, the risk/benefit for people very exposed to Covid or very in danger of developing a bad case, can be worth it.
    7) What are the doubts?
    - For the new technology (mRNA) and adenovirus. If person is aged or immunocompromised it’s fine. We can’t say that for people who will keep the vaccine for decades.
    - Live attenuated vaccines are thought to be safe. However, we have to be aware that more poliomyelitis strains are due to vaccination than to nature. Because vaccination continued where polio had already been eradicated and that created strains.Vaccination strategies have to be re-evaluated in time. So, live-attenuated virus vaccines that can be safely omitted in a given population, should be. Again, inactivated virus vaccines are thought safe.
    8) Once we have a vaccine, we look at its safety: First, there could be small reactions (fever, local pain). But even with saline solution, you can get a “nocebo effect”. So for a vaccine it’s important to have a placebo group, to know that it is not a vaccine reaction but a reaction to the aggression of any injection.
    9) Second, there are the coincidences. When you vaccinate 30 million people, in the next 30 months, many things can occur: car accidents, esclerosis en plaque, etc. For Covid19, we have a lot of observation going on, we should know if accidents occur.
    10) Second factor we look at is efficacity. Some like Pfizer have 90%. The AZ around 70%, probably less for target populations (old, infirm).That’s so in the studies. In real life then people will still get infected with Covid. Vaccines are instrument to fight epidemics, diminish number of cases.
    11) For the vaccines based on the virus, it generates a response to the protein (spike).(min16:00). An unresolved question is whether the virus will generate mutations in that zone. Another is whether the Covid mutations that already exist will still be sensitive to that spike. But we will know soon because England has 70% of its variants with changes in the Spike. We will see what infections happen there.
    12) If infections happen, it will mean we have to amplify the strains or the coding sequences like we do for the grippe. You need to vaccinate against the flu every year.
    13) Another point that we don’t know is the length of the immunity. To begin with natural immunity is already medium, people get sick again in three months. We’ll see.
    14) I have given my point of view as doctor, as scientist and now as public servant. Order of vaccination in France and Europe: first, carers in old-age residences, the all older than 75, then medical staff of more than 65, then all older than 65, etc

    By the way, in another video, Raoult grumbles that even though medical regulators say the mRNA cannot penetrate into DNA, we have known for 32 years this is FALSE. But then, I’m not a doctor. I’ll have to choose which authority to believe, and hope I choose the one without conflict of interest.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @That Would Be Telling

  12. … which provides some protection after 10 days of the jab.

    10 days of the jab? That sounds like an STD.

    More felicitously put: “… which provides some protection 10 days after the jab.”

  13. Plan B is that we go back to sensible everything as defined by our grandparents (or great-grandparents, for younger readers). Plan B will sound familiar to those who worry about antibiotic resistance.

    Plan B means eating sensibly (see a 1950 height/weight chart), maintain a high level of age-appropriate physical activity and maintain strong personal hygiene.. Oh, and stop letting people just walk right into the country from every fucking jungle, batshit-smeared farmer’s market, and shithole city on Earth.

    Plan B is to abandon our current belief that we are the Lords of the Earth, and are no longer bound by earthly matters, like concern over viruses, bacteria, parasites and other competitors.

    Plan B will also involve more emphasis on church attendance, because it’s likely you’ll be praying more. It will also involve a greater appreciation of the brevity of life.

    • Replies: @Western
    @Anon7


    "Plan B means eating sensibly (see a 1950 height/weight chart)"
     
    I always think about how skinny Frank Sinatra was back then.

    Replies: @Ganderson

  14. Something like 40% of Americans (probably more) have already caught the virus, so I don’t think we’ll need all that many vaccinations before this goes away. We ought to have natural immunity within a couple months with or without vaccinations if it follows a natural epidemiological curve.

    From now on this disease will likely be an endemic infection that most people get as kids and therefore develop immunity before it becomes dangerous to them. If you look at SE Asia it’s clear that’s already happened there, probably decades ago.

    Some of my neighbors just got over it. They’re still hacking a bit when they wait with the kids off at the school bus stop, but otherwise fine, including their 70-something grandma with dementia who lives with them. The kids breezed through it.

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  15. @Marty
    I’m at Peet’s in Marin and about 12 yards in front of my windshield are five CHPies standing in a circle about 3 feet apart, laughing and not wearing masks. I don’t wear one either, so just sayin’.

    Replies: @Brad Anbro, @Achmed E. Newman, @Paul Jolliffe

    Neither do I! Thank you…

  16. Per IHME,

    Today’s death count = 409,000
    Predicted 2/21/21: 506,000; rate = 97,000 per 31 days
    Predicted 3/21/21: 541 – 548,000 => 35 – 42,000 per 28 days
    Predicted 4/21/21: 552 – 564,000 => 11 – 16,000 per 31 days

    Not all expected reductions are due to vaccines; Warming weather has much bigger impact. But, what is not in question is, vaccines are not mattering much in the next 3 months.

    In fact, masks are twice as efficient in lowering death counts in the next 3 months.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @epebble

    FWIW, roughly 7,400 people died each day from all causes in 2019, which makes the COVID stats look a lot less scary.

  17. @Marty
    I’m at Peet’s in Marin and about 12 yards in front of my windshield are five CHPies standing in a circle about 3 feet apart, laughing and not wearing masks. I don’t wear one either, so just sayin’.

    Replies: @Brad Anbro, @Achmed E. Newman, @Paul Jolliffe

    Alright, that’s it, Marty! You go across the street and tell Ponch and John that they are on unpaid suspension pending remedial face diaper training. I want them back at the station prontomundo! *

    – Sergeant Getraer

    .

    * Tell ’em the 405’s backed up, so hang a louie after Jim Rockford’s trailer in Malibu, take the Ventura to the Santa Ana, take the del Rio cut-off through Placenta, then the surface streets just south of Fred Sanford’s house in El Segundo.

    • Replies: @Ganderson
    @Achmed E. Newman

    They also need to swing by El Monte Legion Stadium:

    Primer mi carucha (Chevy '39)
    Going to El Monte Legion Stadium
    Pick up on my ‘Weesa (she is so divine)
    Helps me stealing hub caps
    Wasted all the time

    And Sun Village:

    Goin’ back home to the Village of the Sun
    Out in back of Palmdale where the turkey farmers run...

    , @Possumman
    @Achmed E. Newman

    What about going to the Slauson Cut-off---getting out and cutting off your slauson?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

  18. ‘Coronavirus infections in Israel are soaring among those yet to be vaccinated, straining hospitals and forcing the government to extend a strict lockdown even as the country continues its breakneck vaccination drive.’

    The Israelis may have to grit their teeth and give vaccine to the Palestinians as well.

    The Palestinians in the West Bank — Israeli-ruled territory whatever Israel may pretend — surround the settlements, work there every day, and come into Israel proper every day.

    It’s hard, but…

    • Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose
    @Colin Wright

    Colin, how do you think Palestinians would react to truckloads of vaccines delivered by Israeli doctors offering assurances that it’s all perfectly safe? I’m thinking with some skepticism.

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @Desiderius

    , @Art Deco
    @Colin Wright

    The Israelis may have to grit their teeth and give vaccine to the Palestinians as well.

    Israel's Arab citizens are receiving the vaccine. The West Bank and Gaza are the responsibility of the brigands who run them, along with the UNRWA 70-years-of-doles squad.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

  19. Did you guys watch the inauguration?

    This was one of the major highlights.

    • LOL: Wade Hampton
    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Oof.

    , @Frank McGar
    @JohnnyWalker123

    What the fuck is she talking about?

    , @Mr. Mean
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Lol @ “Dr. Biden”

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Jack Armstrong, @The Last Real Calvinist
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Hey, according to iSteve favorite Masha Gessen, writing in the New Yorker, this poem 'ends with a verse of promises and challenges as rousing as any ever written'.

    So this poem poses proudly at the peak of profound persons' performance! Get the hell out of there, Eliot and Yeats!!

    , @Lurker
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Mrs Lurker refused to let me watch anything to do with it lest I become enraged. Often mere seconds of woke bollocks on the TV is enough to have me shouting "Fuck off!!!"

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    , @Dan Smith
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Clanging is a symptom of schizophrenia in which the patient uses a lot of rhyming words that are nonsensical. Just saying.

  20. Mehul Srivastava in Tel Aviv

    So it’s not just here.

    Mehul Srivastava = Slum hive‘s avatar. A lavish serum vat. Harass vulva time.

    and Clive Cookson in London

    Clive cooks on what in London? A 1925 gas range?

  21. “ I’m not sure what Plan B is.”
    Plan B should be what plan A should have been all along: Do nothing and let nature run it’s course.

    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @Dutch Boy
    @Mike Tre

    Protect the vulnerable as much as possible and let the rest fend for themselves. It would have been a good idea to spread the word about cheap vitamins, minerals and drugs that can sharply mitigate Covid but Big Pharma did not approve.

  22. Biden will lock the nation down for a year. Guaranteed. His master in Beijing ordered it. To bankrupt every small business so they can buy it cheap.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  23. Herd immunity is Plan B and should have been Plan A this time last year.

    Herd immunity is the ultimate goal. Immediately remove all the lockdowns of the healthy, productive non-elderly. Isolate the elderly who are most at risk until we achieve it. Maybe the vaccines will help, particularly for the elderly who are unable or unwilling to isolate. Maybe they won’t, but we know quarantine of healthy elderly works.

    Vaccination of non-elderly with an experimental vaccine against a disease with a vanishingly small risk of mortality is insanity, pure and simple.

    We could have done this a year ago and we’d be done with this government-inflicted nonsense by now.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Wade Hampton


    Herd immunity is Plan B and should have been Plan A this time last year.

    Herd immunity is the ultimate goal. Immediately remove all the lockdowns of the healthy, productive non-elderly. Isolate the elderly who are most at risk until we achieve it. Maybe the vaccines will help....
     
    I haven't come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.

    Replies: @BB753, @botazefa

    , @Bert
    @Wade Hampton

    In March last year, I sent that proposal with details about how to protect those likely to be vulnerable to the seven Republican Senators who are also physicians. Many others presumably contacted various levels of government with this plan. There was really never a chance that MSM would have allowed such a plan to operate without daily attacks on it.

  24. @JohnnyWalker123
    Did you guys watch the inauguration?

    This was one of the major highlights.

    https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1351948067872894979

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Frank McGar, @Mr. Mean, @Jack Armstrong, @The Last Real Calvinist, @Lurker, @Dan Smith

    Oof.

  25. Patience, grasshopper. Dose 2 is 3 weeks after dose 1 and immunity is 3 weeks after dose 2 and the lag between infection and hospitalization is another 3 weeks and only 10% of the Israeli population has received dose 2. If hospitalizations don’t come down by spring, THEN you should worry but not yet.

    And that’s for Israel – we’re WAY behind them and even Joe’s ONE MILLION doses/day means that we won’t catch up with where the Israelis are NOW for a least 3 months (by which time the Israelis will be even further ahead) so don’t expect much to change in the US until the fall (except that Covid falls off in summer anyway). Hopefully by the next onset of cold weather we’ll be caught up enough that the next wave won’t be as bad as this fall’s wave. And that’s assuming the virus hasn’t mutated enough to require re-vaccination. There are some reports that the S. African mutation is different enough that the vaccines will need to be modified.

    A million doses a day sounds like a lot but it’s nothing in a population the size of the US. Why not THREE million/day? What makes that impossible other than incompetence?

    • Replies: @Captain Tripps
    @Jack D

    JackD, c'mon man! The perfect is the enemy of the good; You have a fairly ample cerebrum. Why don't you take a couple hours to scour the Webs and do some back-of-the-envelope analysis for us, and give us your best estimate of the optimum doses per day?

    Some LIMFACTs:
    - # of vaccines produced per day
    - # number of vaccines shipped/distributed per day
    - # of qualified personnel available to administer vaccines per day
    - some factor for wastage (broken vials, improperly stored/refrigerated); 1%? 2%
    - efficiency of information distribution in a given area for the target population for availability and procedure to receive the vaccine

    You'll have to have a sense of how the thousands of hospitals/clinics/drug stores manage their personnel for daily tasks, as, even though vaccine administration is up high on the priority list, there are other daily tasks to accomplish, like, I don't know, triaging/saving trauma injury patients, other disease patients, dispensing other scrips, filling out all the paperwork required by Uncle Sam/CDC/State Health agencies on everything, including COVID19 related tasks and etc., etc.

  26. They’re developing drugs just to keep you alive from the first shot to the second shot. It doesn’t sound like a safe vaccine to me. Moreover, after over a year of this virus infecting the population, there’s no way we haven’t yet reached herd immunity the old way. In other words, there’s no need for a vaccine.
    But, by all means, you go ahead and get that shot! We all know Big Pharma has only our health and best interests at heart.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @BB753


    Moreover, after over a year of this virus infecting the population, there’s no way we haven’t yet reached herd immunity the old way.
     
    That's ridiculous - if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren't. If we reach herd immunity the old way it will be at the price of millions of dead. Millions plural.

    Replies: @vhrm, @BB753

    , @Bert
    @BB753

    Herd immunity is estimated to require 70% of the population to have had either the infection or the vaccine, if the vaccine has 80% efficacy or so. See the graph in this link.

    https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

    Replies: @BB753

  27. @Marty
    I’m at Peet’s in Marin and about 12 yards in front of my windshield are five CHPies standing in a circle about 3 feet apart, laughing and not wearing masks. I don’t wear one either, so just sayin’.

    Replies: @Brad Anbro, @Achmed E. Newman, @Paul Jolliffe

    Looks great!
    Why aren’t you out front under the umbrellas – you can’t check out the action on the street from inside!

    https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g33037-d4640133-Reviews-Peet_s_Coffee_Tea-San_Rafael_Marin_County_California.html#photos;aggregationId=&albumid=101&filter=7&ff=128229807

    • Replies: @Marty
    @Paul Jolliffe

    Not that one. Compared to where I was, that’s Bakersfield.

  28. @utu
    "...out of an adult population of just over 6m ..." - Is this a new thing that 2.3m of non Jews are not counted as Israel population? Are they not vaccinated either? Who is dying of Covid in Israel in official statistics? Jews only?

    Replies: @anonymous, @Dacian Julien Soros

    The adult population of Israel is around 6 million and that includes Jews and non-Jews. That is out of around 9 million total population for Israel. Almost a third of the population is under 18 due to huge birthrate of Haredi Jews, Bedouins (highest in the world at 10 average per woman), and, to a lesser extent, regular Muslim Arabs.

  29. @JohnnyWalker123
    Did you guys watch the inauguration?

    This was one of the major highlights.

    https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1351948067872894979

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Frank McGar, @Mr. Mean, @Jack Armstrong, @The Last Real Calvinist, @Lurker, @Dan Smith

    What the fuck is she talking about?

  30. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    "Cases soar" and hospitals are "straining."

    It's behind the FT firewall -- I refuse to give that globalist rag even a halfpenny -- but God I hate journalists with a white hot hate.

    Are they doing the over-sensitive high cycle PCR tests and thus seeing "soaring" cases? And what does "straining" mean?

    Really, here is what we should have done.

    Have every healthy young person under the age of the 44 go to a CDC sponsored infection party at some local high school stadium. That's 120 million people Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down and has Chinese food delivered for two weeks. The tiny 3 decimal place sliver of people who get REALLY sick check into a emergency room.

    We're halfway to herd immunity by April 1st.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Reg Cæsar, @George Taylor, @U. Ranus

    This is actually a really good idea, although we might want to spread the COVID parties out over time, perhaps with a lottery system, just to make sure we don’t get too big a boost in hospitalisations. Zero-point-whatever percent of 120 million is still a lot of people.

    • Replies: @Ganderson
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    My niece is a world class athlete- she called asking our advice about whether she should expose herself to the ‘Rona. I said yes, my wife said no. ( women got the men like a puppet show...)

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?

    Replies: @Jack D, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  31. I suppose Plan B is just “flattening the curve”.

    Whatever happened to that, by the way? Did the curve get flattened? It seems like that was Plan A initially, but then it somehow morphed into “Stopping the spread”.

    By the way, Ioannadis has a new study out which, if I understand it correctly (big “if”) proves wrong Cochran’s earlier hypothesis, viz. that you might as well lock down hard than soft.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    I suppose Plan B is just “flattening the curve”.

    Whatever happened to that, by the way? Did the curve get flattened? It seems like that was Plan A initially, but then it somehow morphed into “Stopping the spread”.
     
    Not sure, but all plans should always have had the curve in mind, because if your fail at that like the New York state part of the NYC metro early on (although there are a lot of moving parts to that, including Cuomo's Final Solution to the Medicaid Problem), or Southern California as of late, your death rates go way up because you can't provide adequate treatment to all patients who need hospital care, including "normal," non-COVID-19 ones.

    And see how the very highest priority to vaccinate was front line hospital workers, if you have many fewer of those out sick with COVID-19, you correspondingly boost your hospital capacity, the hard limit of which is well trained workers, not equipment or beds, isolation or ICU (so is reported with specifics by for example "Aesop" in non-LA Southern California, and I have been reporting locally in my part of flyover country).

    By the way, Ioannadis has a new study out which, if I understand it correctly (big “if”)
     
    If you're not serious expert in the topic, anything with his name on it should get a hard pass, instead wait for it to be Fisked.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  32. @JohnnyWalker123
    Did you guys watch the inauguration?

    This was one of the major highlights.

    https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1351948067872894979

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Frank McGar, @Mr. Mean, @Jack Armstrong, @The Last Real Calvinist, @Lurker, @Dan Smith

    Lol @ “Dr. Biden”

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Mr. Mean


    Lol @ “Dr. Biden”
     
    Joe and Jill went up the Hill
    to tell us what we oughta.
    Joe fell down and broke his crown
    Now Kam'll lead us to slaughter.


    Which of these two adultresses is the real president?

    the lake-rimmed cities of the midwestern states
     
    Lakes "rim" cities? Is this a dog whistle to Saugatuck?
  33. @BB753
    They're developing drugs just to keep you alive from the first shot to the second shot. It doesn't sound like a safe vaccine to me. Moreover, after over a year of this virus infecting the population, there's no way we haven't yet reached herd immunity the old way. In other words, there's no need for a vaccine.
    But, by all means, you go ahead and get that shot! We all know Big Pharma has only our health and best interests at heart.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Bert

    Moreover, after over a year of this virus infecting the population, there’s no way we haven’t yet reached herd immunity the old way.

    That’s ridiculous – if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren’t. If we reach herd immunity the old way it will be at the price of millions of dead. Millions plural.

    • Disagree: botazefa
    • Replies: @vhrm
    @Jack D


    ... if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren’t.
     
    As i'm sure others will point out, daily new cases have been declining for the past week in the US, EU and UK as is test positivity rate in US and UK.

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don't seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=California&show=pop-large&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=South%20Carolina%2CNorth%20Carolina%2CVirginia#states-normalized

    Will there be another wave sometime or have we finally achieved "flu-season" herd immunity everywhere?
    IDK, because anti-body or other immunity surveys are basically not being done.

    Just saw this amusing piece about Fauci from the NYT (via volokh)

    In the pandemic's early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying "70, 75 percent" in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said "75, 80, 85 percent" and "75 to 80-plus percent."

    In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks….. [H]e believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt ….

    https://reason.com/volokh/2020/12/24/and-we-should-trust-you-now-dr-fauci-because/
     
    It's good to see that he's admitting that he's been basically making things up all along.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Captain Tripps, @Jack D

    , @BB753
    @Jack D

    Only if you believe PCRs detect anything, which they don't. Japan has reached herd inmunity without millions of deaths. In fact, last year in Japan there were seven times more suicides than "covid" deaths.

  34. @Colin Wright
    'Coronavirus infections in Israel are soaring among those yet to be vaccinated, straining hospitals and forcing the government to extend a strict lockdown even as the country continues its breakneck vaccination drive.'

    The Israelis may have to grit their teeth and give vaccine to the Palestinians as well.

    The Palestinians in the West Bank -- Israeli-ruled territory whatever Israel may pretend -- surround the settlements, work there every day, and come into Israel proper every day.

    It's hard, but...

    Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose, @Art Deco

    Colin, how do you think Palestinians would react to truckloads of vaccines delivered by Israeli doctors offering assurances that it’s all perfectly safe? I’m thinking with some skepticism.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    'Colin, how do you think Palestinians would react to truckloads of vaccines delivered by Israeli doctors offering assurances that it’s all perfectly safe? I’m thinking with some skepticism.'

    Kind of a moot point, isn't it? Somehow, I don't think it's fear of rejection that's holding the Jews back.

    Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose

    , @Desiderius
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    No, that's mostly western propaganda. They're used to the Israelis taking care of them. In more ways than one.

  35. @YetAnotherAnon
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-real-world-analysis-of-vaccine-in-israel-raises-questions-about-uk-strategy-12192751

    Replies: @HA, @Aardvark

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped”

    Yeah, this is the flipside of the argument that if the recommended dosage of the headache medicine is one tablet, you should take two or three if you want even more relief extra quickly. Sorry, that’s just not how it generally works. Giving as many people as possible a half-dose of the vaccine before giving the other half might have seemed like a good idea, but it was never anything more than a gamble:

    The issue of some vaccines being less effective after a single dose rather than two is well known, as well as the fact that protection is not immediate… Pfizer itself says a single dose of its vaccine is about 52% effective[and the Israeli researchers think it may be less than that]. Some countries such as the UK have delayed administering their second doses to try to maximise the number of people given a first dose.

    The better news is that:

    those who had received their second dose of the Pfizer vaccine had a six- to 12-fold increase in antibodies…

    Again, when the clever end-runs fail to work their magic, you can always default to the actual instructions on the label.

  36. @JohnnyWalker123
    Did you guys watch the inauguration?

    This was one of the major highlights.

    https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1351948067872894979

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Frank McGar, @Mr. Mean, @Jack Armstrong, @The Last Real Calvinist, @Lurker, @Dan Smith

  37. @utu
    "...out of an adult population of just over 6m ..." - Is this a new thing that 2.3m of non Jews are not counted as Israel population? Are they not vaccinated either? Who is dying of Covid in Israel in official statistics? Jews only?

    Replies: @anonymous, @Dacian Julien Soros

    It is a high IQ thing. If China won the image contest for the country avoiding most cases, Israelis are aiming for the best vaccinator pretense. Superpower 2020 would have been the best manufacturer, were it not for the fire at the Serum Institute.

    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless. This became apparent as soon as September, so by this time, you would have hoped the the high-IQ US scientists, most of whom are Jews or Hindus too, would have bothered with proper treatments. They could have tried making antiviral molecules, instead of misleadingly rebranding remdesivir. They should have ramped up the study and eventually the industrial production of antiviral sera and antibodies, of the sort that Trump took. These are very obvious avenues if you look at other viral diseases (HIV, hep C, even varicella).

    But again, it takes a yuuge IQ to focus almost exclusively on a vaccine using an unproven method. It’s on a par with pretending the millions of Palestinians don’t exist. This is what you get when you assemble the largest Powerpoint producers in the world.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless. This became apparent as soon as September
     
    Citation Needed, because this has not been at all apparent based on my readings of this subject. Natural immunity is reported to be strong, lasting way past what you could discern starting in September, although by definition we cannot say for sure how long it will last, but it looks good based on our general knowledge of adaptive immune system reactions to other viruses.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

    , @Jack D
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless.
     
    Even assuming that your premise is true (it most likely isn't) then vaccines are not useless. All you have to do is keep giving the vaccine annually (or semi-annually or for however long the immunity lasts). This is what we do with flu and it's no problem.

    Right now we are having all sorts of teething problems in getting people their two doses. But eventually we'll have 1 dose vaccines (which by themselves cut the problem in half) and vaccines that are easier to handle and the creaky infrastructure for vaccine administration will get cranked up. They are even talking about possibly having a future combined flu and covid vaccine. Instead of getting your annual flu shot, you'll get your annual flu/covid shot. It's really no big deal.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Dacian Julien Soros

  38. @JohnnyWalker123
    Did you guys watch the inauguration?

    This was one of the major highlights.

    https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1351948067872894979

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Frank McGar, @Mr. Mean, @Jack Armstrong, @The Last Real Calvinist, @Lurker, @Dan Smith

    Hey, according to iSteve favorite Masha Gessen, writing in the New Yorker, this poem ‘ends with a verse of promises and challenges as rousing as any ever written’.

    So this poem poses proudly at the peak of profound persons’ performance! Get the hell out of there, Eliot and Yeats!!

  39. @Ghost of Bull Moose
    @Colin Wright

    Colin, how do you think Palestinians would react to truckloads of vaccines delivered by Israeli doctors offering assurances that it’s all perfectly safe? I’m thinking with some skepticism.

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @Desiderius

    ‘Colin, how do you think Palestinians would react to truckloads of vaccines delivered by Israeli doctors offering assurances that it’s all perfectly safe? I’m thinking with some skepticism.’

    Kind of a moot point, isn’t it? Somehow, I don’t think it’s fear of rejection that’s holding the Jews back.

    • Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose
    @Colin Wright

    The Israeli Muslims, Christians and Druze are getting the vaccine okay.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

  40. all this proves, Mister Sailer, is that #IoannidisStillRight

  41. @Paul Jolliffe
    @Marty

    Looks great!
    Why aren’t you out front under the umbrellas - you can’t check out the action on the street from inside!


    https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g33037-d4640133-Reviews-Peet_s_Coffee_Tea-San_Rafael_Marin_County_California.html#photos;aggregationId=&albumid=101&filter=7&ff=128229807

    Replies: @Marty

    Not that one. Compared to where I was, that’s Bakersfield.

  42. @JohnnyWalker123
    Did you guys watch the inauguration?

    This was one of the major highlights.

    https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1351948067872894979

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Frank McGar, @Mr. Mean, @Jack Armstrong, @The Last Real Calvinist, @Lurker, @Dan Smith

    Mrs Lurker refused to let me watch anything to do with it lest I become enraged. Often mere seconds of woke bollocks on the TV is enough to have me shouting “Fuck off!!!”

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Lurker

    I personally didn't watch it either, but one of my leftie luvvie FB friends said that 'every second was amazing and perfect', so clearly we've missed out.

    Replies: @Desiderius

  43. @Lurker
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Mrs Lurker refused to let me watch anything to do with it lest I become enraged. Often mere seconds of woke bollocks on the TV is enough to have me shouting "Fuck off!!!"

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    I personally didn’t watch it either, but one of my leftie luvvie FB friends said that ‘every second was amazing and perfect’, so clearly we’ve missed out.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem that casts the whole rest of their family (siblings, nieces, nephews, children, grandchildren, with only a couple exceptions) as white supremacists and traitors.

    I'm at a loss of what to do with such a thing.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bill P, @AnotherDad, @Dieter Kief

  44. It is all a f$%king scam. People that cannot see that it is all a f$%king scam aren’t interested in seeing reality.

  45. @Anonymous

    Vaccines Work is a good Plan A. I’m not sure what Plan B is.
     
    If we’re throwing in with all we know for Plan A, then Plan B is pretty straightforward.

    https://youtu.be/Mx9z99YJ_7s

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    I loved looking at Shirley Eaton … and thought “what a waste!” when she was gold plated.

    But that Bond villains never seemed to just due due diligence and just … shoot the guy, make sure he was well and truly dead, very ridiculous.

  46. @Jack D
    @BB753


    Moreover, after over a year of this virus infecting the population, there’s no way we haven’t yet reached herd immunity the old way.
     
    That's ridiculous - if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren't. If we reach herd immunity the old way it will be at the price of millions of dead. Millions plural.

    Replies: @vhrm, @BB753

    … if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren’t.

    As i’m sure others will point out, daily new cases have been declining for the past week in the US, EU and UK as is test positivity rate in US and UK.

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don’t seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=California&show=pop-large&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=South%20Carolina%2CNorth%20Carolina%2CVirginia#states-normalized

    Will there be another wave sometime or have we finally achieved “flu-season” herd immunity everywhere?
    IDK, because anti-body or other immunity surveys are basically not being done.

    Just saw this amusing piece about Fauci from the NYT (via volokh)

    In the pandemic’s early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying “70, 75 percent” in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said “75, 80, 85 percent” and “75 to 80-plus percent.”

    In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks….. [H]e believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt ….

    https://reason.com/volokh/2020/12/24/and-we-should-trust-you-now-dr-fauci-because/

    It’s good to see that he’s admitting that he’s been basically making things up all along.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don’t seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    The San Francisco Bay Area has barely been touched so far in the pandemic. I'm guessing there are other places as well.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @AnotherDad, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    , @Captain Tripps
    @vhrm

    Not that I needed any confirmation, but clearly, the faction that is (and has been, for a long while) in charge have completely jettisoned the old elite notion that "honesty is the best policy" for aspiring political leaders/subject matter experts. If it suits their needs, they'll mislead/lie at the drop of a hat.

    Replies: @Piglet

    , @Jack D
    @vhrm

    There has been a small decline from a very high peak after lockdowns were reinstituted in some places - this is not very strong evidence of herd immunity being reached.

    No one (including Fauci) really knows what the herd immunity level for Covid is. Herd immunity is in part based on behavioral factors such as compliance with social distancing, etc. and the compliance has been worse than anyone expected. Also the virus seems to be mutating to make itself more contagious. It's not unheard of for airborne viral diseases (measles) to have herd immunity levels in the 90's.

    Earlier estimates for Covid were perhaps overoptimistic. Trump especially did not like to hear bad news and so those around him were pressured to put an optimistic spin on things. Perhaps Biden is the opposite so that 60 is too low and 90 is too high and 75% is really about right. We'll see.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

  47. @Wade Hampton
    Herd immunity is Plan B and should have been Plan A this time last year.

    Herd immunity is the ultimate goal. Immediately remove all the lockdowns of the healthy, productive non-elderly. Isolate the elderly who are most at risk until we achieve it. Maybe the vaccines will help, particularly for the elderly who are unable or unwilling to isolate. Maybe they won't, but we know quarantine of healthy elderly works.

    Vaccination of non-elderly with an experimental vaccine against a disease with a vanishingly small risk of mortality is insanity, pure and simple.

    We could have done this a year ago and we'd be done with this government-inflicted nonsense by now.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Bert

    Herd immunity is Plan B and should have been Plan A this time last year.

    Herd immunity is the ultimate goal. Immediately remove all the lockdowns of the healthy, productive non-elderly. Isolate the elderly who are most at risk until we achieve it. Maybe the vaccines will help….

    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.

    • Replies: @BB753
    @That Would Be Telling

    Look no further than its first variant, SARS-CoV-1, in 2003-2004.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    , @botazefa
    @That Would Be Telling


    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.
     
    Every single virus similar to covid-19 that hit humanity prior to the invention of vaccines. In past generations we were more accepting of the reality that the weakest in the herd would not make it through a tough winter. We've become so dissociated from the reality of human existence that we actually expect our lives to be utterly safe at all times. Isn't that absurd when you take the time to think about it? As is said, we're always only 2 meals and 24 hours from chaos.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  48. @James Speaks
    @Bardon Kaldian


    Plan B is Moderna, Russians & others
     
    Seriously, if Sputnik were to be available, I would try to get my vaccine right away. Otherwise, I'm going to wait as long as I can to see if old people like me who have had have had their shots are not developing mysterious side effects.

    Such as paralysis and/or death.

    Replies: @James Speaks

    … or redundancy

  49. @JimDandy
    Just readjust the definitions of a Covid "case" and a Covid "death" and Biden will fix this crisis in no time. You'll see.

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    Right On Cue For Biden, WHO Admits High-Cycle PCR Tests Produce Massive COVID False Positives

    Today, within an hour of Joe Biden being inaugurated and signing an executive order mandating masks on all federal property, the WHO sent out a notice to lab professionals using the PCR test. It said:

    WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1).

    The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load.

    Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    DC is opening up restaurants; "researchers" say US cases have "peaked" (NPR)... I can't believe how blatant they're being, and what a fool I was to take it so seriously.

    Regarding cases peaking, something I missed is that they were openly seeding the COVID winddown months ago:

    Nov 12: Dr. Scott Gottlieb: ‘Covid cases in the U.S. should peak in January’

    Dec 08: "Worst-case scenario, Covid-19 cases could peak around Jan. 20 — the same day as President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in Washington D.C."

    Jesus fucking Christ

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Pericles

  50. @Moral Stone
    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way. That obviously isn’t ideal, but it’s hardly the apocalypse either. M&M rates among healthy working age people are minuscule, and the vulnerable can continue to self isolate. We certainly can’t lock down everyone forever, although I suspect our kind government overlords would love to try.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Captain Tripps, @Anon

    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way.

    In the second case of new strains, you start building herd immunity from scratch, starting with everyone who’s already survived COVID-19. As Jack D notes, though, that’ll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic. I’d also like a citation on your claim that morbidity “rates among healthy working age people are minuscule.” I’m not following this, but I’ve gotten the impression its at least somewhat larger than that vague word.

    There’s a possible exception for the starting all over, if the spike protein almost all current well progressed vaccine target is able to sufficiently mutate and still function, but the nucleocapsid protein which natural immunity also targets doesn’t change enough, in which case new vaccines will be needed for those who got immunity that way, which obviously might target or also target that protein.

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique among RNA viruses, for which we have plenty of “eternal” vaccines. Against us is that no matter how suspiciously well adapted to humans SARS-CoV-2 is, it’ll come under selection pressure to get around natural and vaccine immunity if we actually get enough people immune, which I personally am doubting will happen for years, if ever in terms of the world, and so far it looks like for many developed countries absent coercion (just one of many costs of a hostile ruling elite). And we presume that’s what’s happened with the U.K. mutation for example, except with a single human body with a wonky immune system that kept the person alive but allowed fierce ecological competition inside it.

    • Agree: Bert
    • Replies: @Dumbo
    @That Would Be Telling


    that’ll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic.
     
    Some people keep saying that, to scare us, but we have seen ZERO evidence of that happening anywhere. There were countries which did not have a lockdown, sus as Japan, with minimal deaths. There were countries (outside of the West) which basically ignored Covid, and there were no "millions" of deaths, not even thousands.

    The vaccines are mostly about money. So they will continue with them, working or not, because a few people will make a lot of money with them.

    We just should have ignored this stupid Covid, and treat it like any other similar disease - if you get sick, you self-isolate or go to the doctor. If you don't, you keep living as normally. If you want a vaccine, take it voluntarily, as the yearly flu jab. But don't make this Dr. Evil hysteria, "billions will die". No, they won't. It has a ceiling.
    , @Moral Stone
    @That Would Be Telling

    I’m basing my comment on the CDC data for provisional deaths related to covid-19, and these are mortality figures. These may be inflated although that aspect is unclear. But according to this data, the 220 million or so Americans between 15-65 years of age have experienced a 0.02% mortality rate from covid, and I’m not misusing the percentage there. Of those deaths, ~75% are in the 55-65 demographic (experiencing more like a 0.1% population mortality rate) leaving an even smaller number for the under 55 age groups. If serious morbidity occurs an order of magnitude more frequently than mortality (a complete guess), then M&M is maybe 1/500 working age people, heavily concentrated on the 55-65 age group nearing retirement age. This thing isn’t gonna keep food off the shelves or anything like that, since it largely misses the sub-55s, and almost completely misses the sub-45s.

    , @Moral Stone
    @That Would Be Telling

    I’m basing my comment on the CDC data for provisional deaths related to covid-19, and these are mortality figures. These may be inflated although that aspect is unclear. But according to this data, the 220 million or so Americans between 15-65 years of age have experienced a 0.02% mortality rate from covid, and I’m not misusing the percentage there. Of those deaths, ~75% are in the 55-65 demographic (experiencing more like a 0.1% population mortality rate) leaving an even smaller number for the under 55 age groups. If serious morbidity occurs an order of magnitude more frequently than mortality (a complete guess), then M&M is maybe 1/500 working age people, heavily concentrated on the 55-65 age group nearing retirement age. This thing isn’t gonna keep food off the shelves or anything like that, since it largely misses the sub-55s, and almost completely misses the sub-45s.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  51. @Art Deco
    The number you should be looking at is hospitalizations and deaths. If the vaccine is protecting the elderly, the death toll should go down rapidly.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    The extraordinarily high level of false positives is finally making it over the fence into official circles now that the real threat seems finally averted.

    Plan B has always been get rid of Trump then act natural.

    • Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle
    @Desiderius

    But, you're not going to be able drop the facade too quickly.

    Imagine millions of maskholes and Covid Cultists waking up in the morning only to finally figure out the whole thing was a scam. A scam to rid the Deep Shiite State of Trump.

    It looks like it might take until early/late spring or even possibly early summer before the whole Bernie Madoff casedemic meme collapses. Push the vaccines, that nobody seems to want or why would you need a "One Million per Day Vaccination Push". Announce cases are dropping implying the vaccine must be working with the intent that it might drive the sheep to get the jab. Especially those that were somewhat hesitant to get a jab in the first place.

    And, then announce the goal of a million a day getting vaccinated even if they have to fudge the numbers like the 2020 vote counts. Then by spring or summer announce Mission Accomplished. All during this time cases will begin to approach zero asymptotically. While Cuhomo, Gavin Gruesome, and Whitless lead the charge to start opening up the economy.

    Oops, it appears the reverse brainwashing has already commenced:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-covid-19-cases-in-the-us-declined-11-25-after-hitting-a-peak-last-week/ar-BB1cSedh

    Rise up maskholes and remove the filthy bacteria laden sacred diaper.

  52. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Lurker

    I personally didn't watch it either, but one of my leftie luvvie FB friends said that 'every second was amazing and perfect', so clearly we've missed out.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem that casts the whole rest of their family (siblings, nieces, nephews, children, grandchildren, with only a couple exceptions) as white supremacists and traitors.

    I’m at a loss of what to do with such a thing.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Desiderius


    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem...
     
    Did it rhyme Greek with sheik?
    , @Bill P
    @Desiderius

    Their time is past. Be kind to them and let them have the memories of the country they had.

    The way I think of it they only brought the United States to its logical conclusion. I'm beyond believing this country has been betrayed, and I do think it has fulfilled its purpose, which means it's time for another. A doddering old man like Biden spouting vindictive nonsense against the core population is quite fitting for a republic in its twilight years. It's a pretty sorry victory, and all the world knows it and sees it for what it is.

    The next step is internationally-coordinated disarmament.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Desiderius


    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem that casts the whole rest of their family (siblings, nieces, nephews, children, grandchildren, with only a couple exceptions) as white supremacists and traitors.

    I’m at a loss of what to do with such a thing.
     
    Tell 'em since they side with extirpating their own posterity, you intend to smother them with a pillow.
    , @Dieter Kief
    @Desiderius

    It's hard to get away with the errors of your time: If you resist them, you stand alone; if you give in you as well have neither honor nor joy of them.

    No. 440 Maxims and Reflections JWv Goethe

    Replies: @Desiderius

  53. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    "Cases soar" and hospitals are "straining."

    It's behind the FT firewall -- I refuse to give that globalist rag even a halfpenny -- but God I hate journalists with a white hot hate.

    Are they doing the over-sensitive high cycle PCR tests and thus seeing "soaring" cases? And what does "straining" mean?

    Really, here is what we should have done.

    Have every healthy young person under the age of the 44 go to a CDC sponsored infection party at some local high school stadium. That's 120 million people Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down and has Chinese food delivered for two weeks. The tiny 3 decimal place sliver of people who get REALLY sick check into a emergency room.

    We're halfway to herd immunity by April 1st.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Reg Cæsar, @George Taylor, @U. Ranus

    It’s behind the FT firewall — I refuse to give that globalist rag even a halfpenny

    Their crosswords are free of charge. Except for the Magazine‘s, which will cost more than a ha’penny.

    https://www.ft.com/crossword

  54. @Ghost of Bull Moose
    @Colin Wright

    Colin, how do you think Palestinians would react to truckloads of vaccines delivered by Israeli doctors offering assurances that it’s all perfectly safe? I’m thinking with some skepticism.

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @Desiderius

    No, that’s mostly western propaganda. They’re used to the Israelis taking care of them. In more ways than one.

  55. @Desiderius
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem that casts the whole rest of their family (siblings, nieces, nephews, children, grandchildren, with only a couple exceptions) as white supremacists and traitors.

    I'm at a loss of what to do with such a thing.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bill P, @AnotherDad, @Dieter Kief

    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem…

    Did it rhyme Greek with sheik?

  56. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    "Cases soar" and hospitals are "straining."

    It's behind the FT firewall -- I refuse to give that globalist rag even a halfpenny -- but God I hate journalists with a white hot hate.

    Are they doing the over-sensitive high cycle PCR tests and thus seeing "soaring" cases? And what does "straining" mean?

    Really, here is what we should have done.

    Have every healthy young person under the age of the 44 go to a CDC sponsored infection party at some local high school stadium. That's 120 million people Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down and has Chinese food delivered for two weeks. The tiny 3 decimal place sliver of people who get REALLY sick check into a emergency room.

    We're halfway to herd immunity by April 1st.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Reg Cæsar, @George Taylor, @U. Ranus

    Have every healthy young person under the age of the 44 go to a CDC sponsored infection party at some local high school stadium. That’s 120 million people Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down and has Chinese food delivered for two weeks. The tiny 3 decimal place sliver of people who get REALLY sick check into a emergency room.

    That’s been my theory for a while. Shutting down in person learning at college was dumb. We should have done just the opposite, send the youth off to school and lock them in. Let them get sick and over it…..

  57. @Mike Tre
    “ I’m not sure what Plan B is.”
    Plan B should be what plan A should have been all along: Do nothing and let nature run it’s course.

    Replies: @Dutch Boy

    Protect the vulnerable as much as possible and let the rest fend for themselves. It would have been a good idea to spread the word about cheap vitamins, minerals and drugs that can sharply mitigate Covid but Big Pharma did not approve.

  58. @vhrm
    @Jack D


    ... if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren’t.
     
    As i'm sure others will point out, daily new cases have been declining for the past week in the US, EU and UK as is test positivity rate in US and UK.

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don't seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=California&show=pop-large&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=South%20Carolina%2CNorth%20Carolina%2CVirginia#states-normalized

    Will there be another wave sometime or have we finally achieved "flu-season" herd immunity everywhere?
    IDK, because anti-body or other immunity surveys are basically not being done.

    Just saw this amusing piece about Fauci from the NYT (via volokh)

    In the pandemic's early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying "70, 75 percent" in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said "75, 80, 85 percent" and "75 to 80-plus percent."

    In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks….. [H]e believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt ….

    https://reason.com/volokh/2020/12/24/and-we-should-trust-you-now-dr-fauci-because/
     
    It's good to see that he's admitting that he's been basically making things up all along.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Captain Tripps, @Jack D

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don’t seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    The San Francisco Bay Area has barely been touched so far in the pandemic. I’m guessing there are other places as well.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Steve Sailer

    That's weird. Isn't SF (a) foggy, (b) filthy and disease-ridden, with (c) enormous numbers of foreign nationals coming and going and (d) an inept city government?

    Of course, it's also home to our tech overlords. They probably already gave all their workers the top-secret Ft. Dettrick vaccine back in December 2019

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    , @AnotherDad
    @Steve Sailer


    The San Francisco Bay Area has barely been touched so far in the pandemic. I’m guessing there are other places as well.
     
    They are all staying inside. And outside of the homos, just watching their screens, social distancing.
    , @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @Steve Sailer

    Despite having a median age more or less equivalent to the USA, the percentage of blacks and elderly in San Francisco is lower. The population skews young.

    Moreover, the oldsters, as well as the blacks, tend to be wealthier and healthier, I would surmise.

    It's arguable that the draconian lockdowns there have kept things under control, but I would credit the city's unusual demo before I'd give ANY credit to London Breed, as contemptible a politician and human as one could imagine.

  59. @Anon7
    Plan B is that we go back to sensible everything as defined by our grandparents (or great-grandparents, for younger readers). Plan B will sound familiar to those who worry about antibiotic resistance.

    Plan B means eating sensibly (see a 1950 height/weight chart), maintain a high level of age-appropriate physical activity and maintain strong personal hygiene.. Oh, and stop letting people just walk right into the country from every fucking jungle, batshit-smeared farmer's market, and shithole city on Earth.

    Plan B is to abandon our current belief that we are the Lords of the Earth, and are no longer bound by earthly matters, like concern over viruses, bacteria, parasites and other competitors.

    Plan B will also involve more emphasis on church attendance, because it's likely you'll be praying more. It will also involve a greater appreciation of the brevity of life.

    Replies: @Western

    “Plan B means eating sensibly (see a 1950 height/weight chart)”

    I always think about how skinny Frank Sinatra was back then.

    • Replies: @Ganderson
    @Western

    If you listen to old radio shows from the 40s that Frank was appearing on they (Jack Benny, Bob Hope, der Bingle, etc) are constantly making jokes about how skinny the Chairman of the Board is.

  60. Plan B is that we get on with life, and that many people who have never considered the scenario, begin to face the fact that they are mortal, just like everyone who has come before them.

  61. Anonymous[422] • Disclaimer says:

    Meanwhile, Biden is bringing in even MORE troops to Washington DC, and making them sleep, eat, and shit in local greasy parking garages. Most with only one port-a-potty for hundreds of troops.

    For what purpose besides further smothering troop moral, while generating widespread troop derision for him personally, nobody knows.

    Unless Biden strokes out while failing to correctly apply a Heimlich maneuver for Karnella, this is going to be a loooong 4 years…

    • Replies: @anon
    @Anonymous

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dCB2U9lX48

    , @El Dato
    @Anonymous

    They are going to purge those who don't wear masks on these pics.

  62. Anon[130] • Disclaimer says:

    One issue is the phenomenon — I’m not sure what it’s name is — that people behave more recklessly if they think they have some protection. If the vaccines are uniformly 95 percent effective. that won’t mattter so much, but let’s say that people who previously cloistered themselves and got medicine by mail, had packages left on the porch, put off replacing the noisy washing machine, and only made semi-monthly runs to the supermarket … all of a sudden get vaccinated with a 55 percent or 75 percent effective vaccine and make twice weekly shopping trips, eat out a couple of times a month, deal with people face-to-face more, get together with their families, wear masks less often, etc. I’ll leave it to someone else to model this, but I think that there would be a certain amount of cancelling out of the effects. So the statistics would not show a linear improvement, You’d probably bet more of a convex or sigmoid curve on the Covid reduction graph.

    • Agree: Bert
  63. @Mr. Mean
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Lol @ “Dr. Biden”

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Lol @ “Dr. Biden”

    Joe and Jill went up the Hill
    to tell us what we oughta.
    Joe fell down and broke his crown
    Now Kam’ll lead us to slaughter.

    Which of these two adultresses is the real president?

    the lake-rimmed cities of the midwestern states

    Lakes “rim” cities? Is this a dog whistle to Saugatuck?

  64. @Anonymous
    Meanwhile, Biden is bringing in even MORE troops to Washington DC, and making them sleep, eat, and shit in local greasy parking garages. Most with only one port-a-potty for hundreds of troops.

    For what purpose besides further smothering troop moral, while generating widespread troop derision for him personally, nobody knows.

    Unless Biden strokes out while failing to correctly apply a Heimlich maneuver for Karnella, this is going to be a loooong 4 years...

    https://youtu.be/-SyfjlQatw8

    Replies: @anon, @El Dato

  65. @Desiderius
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem that casts the whole rest of their family (siblings, nieces, nephews, children, grandchildren, with only a couple exceptions) as white supremacists and traitors.

    I'm at a loss of what to do with such a thing.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bill P, @AnotherDad, @Dieter Kief

    Their time is past. Be kind to them and let them have the memories of the country they had.

    The way I think of it they only brought the United States to its logical conclusion. I’m beyond believing this country has been betrayed, and I do think it has fulfilled its purpose, which means it’s time for another. A doddering old man like Biden spouting vindictive nonsense against the core population is quite fitting for a republic in its twilight years. It’s a pretty sorry victory, and all the world knows it and sees it for what it is.

    The next step is internationally-coordinated disarmament.

  66. @Hippopotamusdrome
    @JimDandy



    Right On Cue For Biden, WHO Admits High-Cycle PCR Tests Produce Massive COVID False Positives

    Today, within an hour of Joe Biden being inaugurated and signing an executive order mandating masks on all federal property, the WHO sent out a notice to lab professionals using the PCR test. It said:

    WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1).

    The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load.

    Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

     

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    DC is opening up restaurants; “researchers” say US cases have “peaked” (NPR)… I can’t believe how blatant they’re being, and what a fool I was to take it so seriously.

    Regarding cases peaking, something I missed is that they were openly seeding the COVID winddown months ago:

    Nov 12: Dr. Scott Gottlieb: ‘Covid cases in the U.S. should peak in January’

    Dec 08: “Worst-case scenario, Covid-19 cases could peak around Jan. 20 — the same day as President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in Washington D.C.”

    Jesus fucking Christ

    • Thanks: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    It reminds me of the way the leftie establishment started advertising last summer how they were going to steal the election.

    This way, they get not just a two-fer -- it's a three-fer (pardon me for this vulgar neologism, but it's been a long week):

    1) They shape and control The Narrative; e.g. it turns out it's easier to defend against charges of election-rigging when you've already floated a 'potential scenario' for how the counting will go.

    2) They get the satisfaction of being 'prescient', and hence appearing wise and all-knowing to the gullible.

    3) The get even more satisfaction by shoving the whole dirty mess right in our faces.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    , @Pericles
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Lol, let the healing begin!

  67. @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don’t seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    The San Francisco Bay Area has barely been touched so far in the pandemic. I'm guessing there are other places as well.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @AnotherDad, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    That’s weird. Isn’t SF (a) foggy, (b) filthy and disease-ridden, with (c) enormous numbers of foreign nationals coming and going and (d) an inept city government?

    Of course, it’s also home to our tech overlords. They probably already gave all their workers the top-secret Ft. Dettrick vaccine back in December 2019

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account



    Isn’t SF (a) foggy

     

    24 hr humidity kills virus's? Plus daily rain wipes everything down.
  68. @Colin Wright
    'Coronavirus infections in Israel are soaring among those yet to be vaccinated, straining hospitals and forcing the government to extend a strict lockdown even as the country continues its breakneck vaccination drive.'

    The Israelis may have to grit their teeth and give vaccine to the Palestinians as well.

    The Palestinians in the West Bank -- Israeli-ruled territory whatever Israel may pretend -- surround the settlements, work there every day, and come into Israel proper every day.

    It's hard, but...

    Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose, @Art Deco

    The Israelis may have to grit their teeth and give vaccine to the Palestinians as well.

    Israel’s Arab citizens are receiving the vaccine. The West Bank and Gaza are the responsibility of the brigands who run them, along with the UNRWA 70-years-of-doles squad.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Art Deco

    'Israel’s Arab citizens are receiving the vaccine. The West Bank and Gaza are the responsibility of the brigands who run them, along with the UNRWA 70-years-of-doles squad.'

    Bullshit -- on all three points, and you know it.

    You're neither stupid nor ignorant. Therefore you're dishonest.

    ...Offense.

    Replies: @Paperback Writer

  69. This is all a classic case of Gell-Mann Amnesia. We’re fed lie after lie, fraud after fraud, about anything and everything, and it’s so blatant that we know it — but then we turn the page and oh look it says the vaccines are just fine, it’s all just like we’re being told. Sorry, I’m just not in a trusting mood lately.

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
  70. @Anonymous
    Meanwhile, Biden is bringing in even MORE troops to Washington DC, and making them sleep, eat, and shit in local greasy parking garages. Most with only one port-a-potty for hundreds of troops.

    For what purpose besides further smothering troop moral, while generating widespread troop derision for him personally, nobody knows.

    Unless Biden strokes out while failing to correctly apply a Heimlich maneuver for Karnella, this is going to be a loooong 4 years...

    https://youtu.be/-SyfjlQatw8

    Replies: @anon, @El Dato

    They are going to purge those who don’t wear masks on these pics.

  71. None of this makes sense. How can cases and deaths keep rising while nearly everyone wears a facediaper? How can be?

    Something’s not adding up here. Can any of the local high-IQ rocket plumbers help a brother out?

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    "It's time to mask up, America." -- President-Extremely-Legit Joe Biden

    https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1352086011875090439

    "And it was only possible because of you [Joe]. Because you made calls. Because you marched. Because you wore your masks and voted like never before.

    For four years, you defended our democracy with everything you had—and now, our country can enter a new day." -- Barack Obama

    https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1352092714599391233

    Let the healing begin!

  72. @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don’t seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    The San Francisco Bay Area has barely been touched so far in the pandemic. I'm guessing there are other places as well.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @AnotherDad, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    The San Francisco Bay Area has barely been touched so far in the pandemic. I’m guessing there are other places as well.

    They are all staying inside. And outside of the homos, just watching their screens, social distancing.

  73. @Desiderius
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem that casts the whole rest of their family (siblings, nieces, nephews, children, grandchildren, with only a couple exceptions) as white supremacists and traitors.

    I'm at a loss of what to do with such a thing.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bill P, @AnotherDad, @Dieter Kief

    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem that casts the whole rest of their family (siblings, nieces, nephews, children, grandchildren, with only a couple exceptions) as white supremacists and traitors.

    I’m at a loss of what to do with such a thing.

    Tell ’em since they side with extirpating their own posterity, you intend to smother them with a pillow.

  74. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    DC is opening up restaurants; "researchers" say US cases have "peaked" (NPR)... I can't believe how blatant they're being, and what a fool I was to take it so seriously.

    Regarding cases peaking, something I missed is that they were openly seeding the COVID winddown months ago:

    Nov 12: Dr. Scott Gottlieb: ‘Covid cases in the U.S. should peak in January’

    Dec 08: "Worst-case scenario, Covid-19 cases could peak around Jan. 20 — the same day as President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in Washington D.C."

    Jesus fucking Christ

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Pericles

    It reminds me of the way the leftie establishment started advertising last summer how they were going to steal the election.

    This way, they get not just a two-fer — it’s a three-fer (pardon me for this vulgar neologism, but it’s been a long week):

    1) They shape and control The Narrative; e.g. it turns out it’s easier to defend against charges of election-rigging when you’ve already floated a ‘potential scenario’ for how the counting will go.

    2) They get the satisfaction of being ‘prescient’, and hence appearing wise and all-knowing to the gullible.

    3) The get even more satisfaction by shoving the whole dirty mess right in our faces.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @The Last Real Calvinist


    ...it turns out it’s easier to defend against charges of election-rigging when you’ve already floated a ‘potential scenario’ for how the counting will go.
     
    Amazing how effective that worked... then again, they've got practice: they already learned (oh, about 19 years ago) that a lot of people will swallow just about anything as long as a more palatable option is presented, and jammed down their throats
  75. If Israel followed its official plan to vaccinate those 60 and older going down from the oldest by now all 65 and older (11.7% of population) would receive two doses. As of yesterday 2.4 mil were vaccinated and 800k received both doses. Presumably the 800k group should be the oldest and the most vulnerable.

    If one dose reduces chances of infection and thus dying by factor of two or more and the fact that the 65 old and older account for the majority of fatalities then the number of daily deaths should be significantly smaller than 2-3 weeks ago. But the number of deaths on January 21 and 20 were the two highest in the 3rd wave.

    So what possibly is happening? Very Israeli antisocial attitude of not being a freier that derailed the plan of vaccinating the oldest?

    Nurses are helping Israelis bend the rules to get COVID-19 vaccines
    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/nurses-are-helping-israelis-are-bending-the-rules-to-get-covid-19-vaccines-656320

    But in Israel, rules are often seen as just another obstacle to overcome. And because of the country’s distribution system, lots of ineligible people are being vaccinated.

    Moshe, from the northern city of Haifa, got his vaccine after visiting a clinic just before closing time. He asked that his name or age not be published because he wanted to avoid being scolded for the early vaccination.

    But no one else who spoke to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency relayed that concern. In fact, Israelis who are vaccinated contrary to regulations frequently brag about it, posting pictures on social media and expressing relief.

    Holocaust survivors were not freiers.

    • Replies: @Bert
    @utu

    The freiers will be hoping everyone else has asabiyyah when their Protector State goes populist and their country is on its own.

    , @utu
    @utu

    https://healthpolicy-watch.news/israels-immunization-trial-balloon-pricked-by-soaring-covid-infections/
    More than 80 percent of Israelis over 70 have received at least one dose of the vaccine, along with 68 percent of those aged 60 to 69, and 50 percent of those aged 50 to 59.

    Initial analyses of some 460,000 Israelis vaccinated have suggested that the first dose was providing roughly 50-60% protection – but only after two weeks.

    Replies: @vhrm

  76. Plan B is to ignore this moronic “superflu” and act normally – like we should have done from the beginning.

  77. @Wade Hampton
    Herd immunity is Plan B and should have been Plan A this time last year.

    Herd immunity is the ultimate goal. Immediately remove all the lockdowns of the healthy, productive non-elderly. Isolate the elderly who are most at risk until we achieve it. Maybe the vaccines will help, particularly for the elderly who are unable or unwilling to isolate. Maybe they won't, but we know quarantine of healthy elderly works.

    Vaccination of non-elderly with an experimental vaccine against a disease with a vanishingly small risk of mortality is insanity, pure and simple.

    We could have done this a year ago and we'd be done with this government-inflicted nonsense by now.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Bert

    In March last year, I sent that proposal with details about how to protect those likely to be vulnerable to the seven Republican Senators who are also physicians. Many others presumably contacted various levels of government with this plan. There was really never a chance that MSM would have allowed such a plan to operate without daily attacks on it.

  78. Plan B, which will be necessary later this year, will be prophylaxis with ivermectin or HCQ + ambroxol. Plan B could have been Plan A in April last year. Plan B will be necessary when SARS-2 evolution evades antibodies resulting from the vaccine and thereby induces ADE in a substantial percentage of those with antibodies from either natural infection or the vaccine. ADE (antibody-dependent-enhancement) is more severe disease upon a second infection because of immune system dysregulation associated with antibodies that work only partially; it occurs with Dengue and other viral diseases. This scenario will only be avoided if the vaccines elicit a strong T-cell memory.

    The other ignored Plan A was rapid herd immunity to avoid giving SARS-2 time to mutate and evolve.

  79. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    DC is opening up restaurants; "researchers" say US cases have "peaked" (NPR)... I can't believe how blatant they're being, and what a fool I was to take it so seriously.

    Regarding cases peaking, something I missed is that they were openly seeding the COVID winddown months ago:

    Nov 12: Dr. Scott Gottlieb: ‘Covid cases in the U.S. should peak in January’

    Dec 08: "Worst-case scenario, Covid-19 cases could peak around Jan. 20 — the same day as President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in Washington D.C."

    Jesus fucking Christ

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Pericles

    Lol, let the healing begin!

  80. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    None of this makes sense. How can cases and deaths keep rising while nearly everyone wears a facediaper? How can be?

    Something's not adding up here. Can any of the local high-IQ rocket plumbers help a brother out?

    Replies: @Pericles

    “It’s time to mask up, America.” — President-Extremely-Legit Joe Biden

    “And it was only possible because of you [Joe]. Because you made calls. Because you marched. Because you wore your masks and voted like never before.

    For four years, you defended our democracy with everything you had—and now, our country can enter a new day.” — Barack Obama

    Let the healing begin!

  81. @BB753
    They're developing drugs just to keep you alive from the first shot to the second shot. It doesn't sound like a safe vaccine to me. Moreover, after over a year of this virus infecting the population, there's no way we haven't yet reached herd immunity the old way. In other words, there's no need for a vaccine.
    But, by all means, you go ahead and get that shot! We all know Big Pharma has only our health and best interests at heart.

    Replies: @Jack D, @Bert

    Herd immunity is estimated to require 70% of the population to have had either the infection or the vaccine, if the vaccine has 80% efficacy or so. See the graph in this link.

    https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

    • Replies: @BB753
    @Bert

    It depends on the virus. Herd immunity can be achieved with 30 % of the population. Now, we'll never know.

  82. @Desiderius
    @The Last Real Calvinist

    My parents were over the moon and insisting I read this wonderful poem that casts the whole rest of their family (siblings, nieces, nephews, children, grandchildren, with only a couple exceptions) as white supremacists and traitors.

    I'm at a loss of what to do with such a thing.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @Bill P, @AnotherDad, @Dieter Kief

    It’s hard to get away with the errors of your time: If you resist them, you stand alone; if you give in you as well have neither honor nor joy of them.

    No. 440 Maxims and Reflections JWv Goethe

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Dieter Kief

    But I do not. You are here too with me. Two or more gathered.

    And I assure you they don’t feel that they are giving in to anything. And the joy as far as I can tell is genuine.

    Replies: @Desiderius

  83. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    "Cases soar" and hospitals are "straining."

    It's behind the FT firewall -- I refuse to give that globalist rag even a halfpenny -- but God I hate journalists with a white hot hate.

    Are they doing the over-sensitive high cycle PCR tests and thus seeing "soaring" cases? And what does "straining" mean?

    Really, here is what we should have done.

    Have every healthy young person under the age of the 44 go to a CDC sponsored infection party at some local high school stadium. That's 120 million people Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down and has Chinese food delivered for two weeks. The tiny 3 decimal place sliver of people who get REALLY sick check into a emergency room.

    We're halfway to herd immunity by April 1st.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @Reg Cæsar, @George Taylor, @U. Ranus

    Everybody gets infected, everybody goes home hunkers down

    Many places used to have just such a big public party right before fasting season. Won’t be allowed this year of course… it could work.

  84. @utu
    If Israel followed its official plan to vaccinate those 60 and older going down from the oldest by now all 65 and older (11.7% of population) would receive two doses. As of yesterday 2.4 mil were vaccinated and 800k received both doses. Presumably the 800k group should be the oldest and the most vulnerable.

    If one dose reduces chances of infection and thus dying by factor of two or more and the fact that the 65 old and older account for the majority of fatalities then the number of daily deaths should be significantly smaller than 2-3 weeks ago. But the number of deaths on January 21 and 20 were the two highest in the 3rd wave.

    So what possibly is happening? Very Israeli antisocial attitude of not being a freier that derailed the plan of vaccinating the oldest?


    Nurses are helping Israelis bend the rules to get COVID-19 vaccines
    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/nurses-are-helping-israelis-are-bending-the-rules-to-get-covid-19-vaccines-656320

    But in Israel, rules are often seen as just another obstacle to overcome. And because of the country’s distribution system, lots of ineligible people are being vaccinated.

    Moshe, from the northern city of Haifa, got his vaccine after visiting a clinic just before closing time. He asked that his name or age not be published because he wanted to avoid being scolded for the early vaccination.

    But no one else who spoke to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency relayed that concern. In fact, Israelis who are vaccinated contrary to regulations frequently brag about it, posting pictures on social media and expressing relief.
     

    Holocaust survivors were not freiers.

    Replies: @Bert, @utu

    The freiers will be hoping everyone else has asabiyyah when their Protector State goes populist and their country is on its own.

  85. @utu
    If Israel followed its official plan to vaccinate those 60 and older going down from the oldest by now all 65 and older (11.7% of population) would receive two doses. As of yesterday 2.4 mil were vaccinated and 800k received both doses. Presumably the 800k group should be the oldest and the most vulnerable.

    If one dose reduces chances of infection and thus dying by factor of two or more and the fact that the 65 old and older account for the majority of fatalities then the number of daily deaths should be significantly smaller than 2-3 weeks ago. But the number of deaths on January 21 and 20 were the two highest in the 3rd wave.

    So what possibly is happening? Very Israeli antisocial attitude of not being a freier that derailed the plan of vaccinating the oldest?


    Nurses are helping Israelis bend the rules to get COVID-19 vaccines
    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/nurses-are-helping-israelis-are-bending-the-rules-to-get-covid-19-vaccines-656320

    But in Israel, rules are often seen as just another obstacle to overcome. And because of the country’s distribution system, lots of ineligible people are being vaccinated.

    Moshe, from the northern city of Haifa, got his vaccine after visiting a clinic just before closing time. He asked that his name or age not be published because he wanted to avoid being scolded for the early vaccination.

    But no one else who spoke to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency relayed that concern. In fact, Israelis who are vaccinated contrary to regulations frequently brag about it, posting pictures on social media and expressing relief.
     

    Holocaust survivors were not freiers.

    Replies: @Bert, @utu

    https://healthpolicy-watch.news/israels-immunization-trial-balloon-pricked-by-soaring-covid-infections/
    More than 80 percent of Israelis over 70 have received at least one dose of the vaccine, along with 68 percent of those aged 60 to 69, and 50 percent of those aged 50 to 59.

    Initial analyses of some 460,000 Israelis vaccinated have suggested that the first dose was providing roughly 50-60% protection – but only after two weeks.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @utu

    Some say 60% in the 3rd week, others only 33% reduction in the third week.
    And everyone (or nearly so) gets the 2nd shot at 3 weeks after the first so there's no "single shot after more than 3 weeks" group to measure.


    At the same time, however, other, somewhat contrary data was released by Israeli health maintenance organizations: According to figures released by Clalit, Israel’s largest health provider, the chance of a person being infected with the coronavirus dropped by 33% 14 days after they were vaccinated; separate figures recorded by the Maccabi health provider showed the vaccine caused a 60% drop in the chances for infection after taking the first shot.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-virus-czar-says-1st-dose-less-effective-than-pfizer-indicated-report/
     
  86. anon[385] • Disclaimer says:

    As far as the rollout, the Bloomberg graphic is basically correct. Reporting of immunizations is uneven and lagged….and we are closing in on 1 million/day.

    And 1 million/day is about what the Dec and Jan OWS supply goals were. So we will use about 40 million out of 50 million by the end of January.

    The larger rollout will use the 40,000 retail pharmacies in the US to do 50 per day. Which is what my local CVS did with flu vaccine in September/October.

    Yea, the initial rollout was a disappointment, but we are still talking about a supply constraint. Coumo has been grandstanding on that basis to offset his horrible optics. But he can’t just jawbone for vaccine like he did with Ventilators with Trump.

    Meanwhile are closer to an equilibrium than the rhetoric. The upper midwest looks pretty much done, and there is a broad North to South Surge which seems close to hitting the Southern border.

    There is an R[effective] which is a variable. There is also heterogeneity. So I am thinking the number of US cases is pretty large, maybe 3x the reported cases or 75 million. And we will be adding 1 million day from vaccines. And cases will basically collapse.

  87. @That Would Be Telling
    @Moral Stone


    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way.
     
    In the second case of new strains, you start building herd immunity from scratch, starting with everyone who's already survived COVID-19. As Jack D notes, though, that'll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic. I'd also like a citation on your claim that morbidity "rates among healthy working age people are minuscule." I'm not following this, but I've gotten the impression its at least somewhat larger than that vague word.

    There's a possible exception for the starting all over, if the spike protein almost all current well progressed vaccine target is able to sufficiently mutate and still function, but the nucleocapsid protein which natural immunity also targets doesn't change enough, in which case new vaccines will be needed for those who got immunity that way, which obviously might target or also target that protein.

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique among RNA viruses, for which we have plenty of "eternal" vaccines. Against us is that no matter how suspiciously well adapted to humans SARS-CoV-2 is, it'll come under selection pressure to get around natural and vaccine immunity if we actually get enough people immune, which I personally am doubting will happen for years, if ever in terms of the world, and so far it looks like for many developed countries absent coercion (just one of many costs of a hostile ruling elite). And we presume that's what's happened with the U.K. mutation for example, except with a single human body with a wonky immune system that kept the person alive but allowed fierce ecological competition inside it.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Moral Stone, @Moral Stone

    that’ll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic.

    Some people keep saying that, to scare us, but we have seen ZERO evidence of that happening anywhere. There were countries which did not have a lockdown, sus as Japan, with minimal deaths. There were countries (outside of the West) which basically ignored Covid, and there were no “millions” of deaths, not even thousands.

    The vaccines are mostly about money. So they will continue with them, working or not, because a few people will make a lot of money with them.

    We just should have ignored this stupid Covid, and treat it like any other similar disease – if you get sick, you self-isolate or go to the doctor. If you don’t, you keep living as normally. If you want a vaccine, take it voluntarily, as the yearly flu jab. But don’t make this Dr. Evil hysteria, “billions will die”. No, they won’t. It has a ceiling.

  88. @That Would Be Telling
    @Wade Hampton


    Herd immunity is Plan B and should have been Plan A this time last year.

    Herd immunity is the ultimate goal. Immediately remove all the lockdowns of the healthy, productive non-elderly. Isolate the elderly who are most at risk until we achieve it. Maybe the vaccines will help....
     
    I haven't come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.

    Replies: @BB753, @botazefa

    Look no further than its first variant, SARS-CoV-1, in 2003-2004.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @BB753



    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.
     
    Look no further than its first variant, SARS-CoV-1, in 2003-2004.
     
    SARS-CoV(-1) does not transmit like -2. Its transmission was driven by a relatively few super spreaders, and killed a lot more of those who got it, dead people of course not being at all efficient at respiratory transmission.

    Replies: @BB753

  89. @Jack D
    @BB753


    Moreover, after over a year of this virus infecting the population, there’s no way we haven’t yet reached herd immunity the old way.
     
    That's ridiculous - if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren't. If we reach herd immunity the old way it will be at the price of millions of dead. Millions plural.

    Replies: @vhrm, @BB753

    Only if you believe PCRs detect anything, which they don’t. Japan has reached herd inmunity without millions of deaths. In fact, last year in Japan there were seven times more suicides than “covid” deaths.

  90. @utu
    @utu

    https://healthpolicy-watch.news/israels-immunization-trial-balloon-pricked-by-soaring-covid-infections/
    More than 80 percent of Israelis over 70 have received at least one dose of the vaccine, along with 68 percent of those aged 60 to 69, and 50 percent of those aged 50 to 59.

    Initial analyses of some 460,000 Israelis vaccinated have suggested that the first dose was providing roughly 50-60% protection – but only after two weeks.

    Replies: @vhrm

    Some say 60% in the 3rd week, others only 33% reduction in the third week.
    And everyone (or nearly so) gets the 2nd shot at 3 weeks after the first so there’s no “single shot after more than 3 weeks” group to measure.

    At the same time, however, other, somewhat contrary data was released by Israeli health maintenance organizations: According to figures released by Clalit, Israel’s largest health provider, the chance of a person being infected with the coronavirus dropped by 33% 14 days after they were vaccinated; separate figures recorded by the Maccabi health provider showed the vaccine caused a 60% drop in the chances for infection after taking the first shot.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-virus-czar-says-1st-dose-less-effective-than-pfizer-indicated-report/

  91. @Bert
    @BB753

    Herd immunity is estimated to require 70% of the population to have had either the infection or the vaccine, if the vaccine has 80% efficacy or so. See the graph in this link.

    https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

    Replies: @BB753

    It depends on the virus. Herd immunity can be achieved with 30 % of the population. Now, we’ll never know.

  92. Of course it depends on the virus, specifically on the R parameter, which for this virus is higher than influenza. 70% is the minimal level for this virus.

  93. Oddly enough, you would think a national emergency would have shots available 24/7. Meanwhile, they seem to be only given out during bankers’ hours. Well, when you put the government in charge, I suppose that’s what you get.

  94. @Dieter Kief
    @Desiderius

    It's hard to get away with the errors of your time: If you resist them, you stand alone; if you give in you as well have neither honor nor joy of them.

    No. 440 Maxims and Reflections JWv Goethe

    Replies: @Desiderius

    But I do not. You are here too with me. Two or more gathered.

    And I assure you they don’t feel that they are giving in to anything. And the joy as far as I can tell is genuine.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Desiderius

    https://twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1352372049684160514?s=20

    The dividing line is this: they are still on the inside while we are not, although some of us pass as needed.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  95. @Desiderius
    @Dieter Kief

    But I do not. You are here too with me. Two or more gathered.

    And I assure you they don’t feel that they are giving in to anything. And the joy as far as I can tell is genuine.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    The dividing line is this: they are still on the inside while we are not, although some of us pass as needed.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Desiderius


    The dividing line is this: they are still on the inside while we are not, although some of us pass as needed.
     
    Often times we presume we would love people that are mightier than we are, but it is just our egoism, which creates the foundation of our friendship. We don't rely on them to do something for them but rather to be helped out by them.

    Haha - Reflections and Moral Sentences - La Rochefoucauld, Paris, 1665
  96. @Moral Stone
    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way. That obviously isn’t ideal, but it’s hardly the apocalypse either. M&M rates among healthy working age people are minuscule, and the vulnerable can continue to self isolate. We certainly can’t lock down everyone forever, although I suspect our kind government overlords would love to try.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Captain Tripps, @Anon

    I haven’t been keeping up my commenting output, so cannot tap the “Agree” button. But I was going to post a comment very similar. So, “Agree”.

  97. @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    It reminds me of the way the leftie establishment started advertising last summer how they were going to steal the election.

    This way, they get not just a two-fer -- it's a three-fer (pardon me for this vulgar neologism, but it's been a long week):

    1) They shape and control The Narrative; e.g. it turns out it's easier to defend against charges of election-rigging when you've already floated a 'potential scenario' for how the counting will go.

    2) They get the satisfaction of being 'prescient', and hence appearing wise and all-knowing to the gullible.

    3) The get even more satisfaction by shoving the whole dirty mess right in our faces.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    …it turns out it’s easier to defend against charges of election-rigging when you’ve already floated a ‘potential scenario’ for how the counting will go.

    Amazing how effective that worked… then again, they’ve got practice: they already learned (oh, about 19 years ago) that a lot of people will swallow just about anything as long as a more palatable option is presented, and jammed down their throats

  98. @Jack D
    Patience, grasshopper. Dose 2 is 3 weeks after dose 1 and immunity is 3 weeks after dose 2 and the lag between infection and hospitalization is another 3 weeks and only 10% of the Israeli population has received dose 2. If hospitalizations don't come down by spring, THEN you should worry but not yet.

    And that's for Israel - we're WAY behind them and even Joe's ONE MILLION doses/day means that we won't catch up with where the Israelis are NOW for a least 3 months (by which time the Israelis will be even further ahead) so don't expect much to change in the US until the fall (except that Covid falls off in summer anyway). Hopefully by the next onset of cold weather we'll be caught up enough that the next wave won't be as bad as this fall's wave. And that's assuming the virus hasn't mutated enough to require re-vaccination. There are some reports that the S. African mutation is different enough that the vaccines will need to be modified.

    A million doses a day sounds like a lot but it's nothing in a population the size of the US. Why not THREE million/day? What makes that impossible other than incompetence?

    Replies: @Captain Tripps

    JackD, c’mon man! The perfect is the enemy of the good; You have a fairly ample cerebrum. Why don’t you take a couple hours to scour the Webs and do some back-of-the-envelope analysis for us, and give us your best estimate of the optimum doses per day?

    Some LIMFACTs:
    – # of vaccines produced per day
    – # number of vaccines shipped/distributed per day
    – # of qualified personnel available to administer vaccines per day
    – some factor for wastage (broken vials, improperly stored/refrigerated); 1%? 2%
    – efficiency of information distribution in a given area for the target population for availability and procedure to receive the vaccine

    You’ll have to have a sense of how the thousands of hospitals/clinics/drug stores manage their personnel for daily tasks, as, even though vaccine administration is up high on the priority list, there are other daily tasks to accomplish, like, I don’t know, triaging/saving trauma injury patients, other disease patients, dispensing other scrips, filling out all the paperwork required by Uncle Sam/CDC/State Health agencies on everything, including COVID19 related tasks and etc., etc.

  99. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Marty

    Alright, that's it, Marty! You go across the street and tell Ponch and John that they are on unpaid suspension pending remedial face diaper training. I want them back at the station prontomundo! *

    - Sergeant Getraer

    .


    * Tell 'em the 405's backed up, so hang a louie after Jim Rockford's trailer in Malibu, take the Ventura to the Santa Ana, take the del Rio cut-off through Placenta, then the surface streets just south of Fred Sanford's house in El Segundo.

    Replies: @Ganderson, @Possumman

    They also need to swing by El Monte Legion Stadium:

    Primer mi carucha (Chevy ’39)
    Going to El Monte Legion Stadium
    Pick up on my ‘Weesa (she is so divine)
    Helps me stealing hub caps
    Wasted all the time

    And Sun Village:

    Goin’ back home to the Village of the Sun
    Out in back of Palmdale where the turkey farmers run…

  100. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    This is actually a really good idea, although we might want to spread the COVID parties out over time, perhaps with a lottery system, just to make sure we don't get too big a boost in hospitalisations. Zero-point-whatever percent of 120 million is still a lot of people.

    Replies: @Ganderson

    My niece is a world class athlete- she called asking our advice about whether she should expose herself to the ‘Rona. I said yes, my wife said no. ( women got the men like a puppet show…)

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Ganderson


    she called asking our advice about whether she should expose herself to the ‘Rona.
     
    What kind of stupid question is that? Even if you are opposed to the vaccine, even if you think that covid is just the flu, why would you intentionally expose yourself to a disease? Maybe you'll get it eventually anyway, but why be in a rush to get sick?

    Are you and your wife physicians? Why is she discussing this with you instead of with her doctor?

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?
     
    There are plenty of reasons to do so. First of all, the risk of death doesn't really drop to almost zero until you get below 30. Plenty of dead in their 40s and 50s. 2nd, even if you don't die from Covid it can have lingering unpleasant side effects such as long term loss of taste and smell even in younger people. Not to mention loss of lung capacity - very important to athletes. Whatever side effects have been noted from the vaccine have so far been extremely short term - a few days and after that you go back to 100% normal. Lastly, getting vaccinated (probably) keeps you from spreading Covid to your family members and other contacts, some of whom are older and at high risk. Wouldn't your niece feel guilty if she gave Covid to grandma and it killed her?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Ganderson

    I'd be on the fence about that. Much of the reported strange lingering effects could be overblown - media nonsense, or else coincidental comorbidities in the enormous sea of COVID cases - but there's still a chance that the scientists who developed this in the underground lab in the hollowed-out Chinese volcano have seeded it with all kinds of medical landmines and strange AIDS proteins

  101. @Western
    @Anon7


    "Plan B means eating sensibly (see a 1950 height/weight chart)"
     
    I always think about how skinny Frank Sinatra was back then.

    Replies: @Ganderson

    If you listen to old radio shows from the 40s that Frank was appearing on they (Jack Benny, Bob Hope, der Bingle, etc) are constantly making jokes about how skinny the Chairman of the Board is.

  102. @vhrm
    @Jack D


    ... if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren’t.
     
    As i'm sure others will point out, daily new cases have been declining for the past week in the US, EU and UK as is test positivity rate in US and UK.

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don't seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=California&show=pop-large&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=South%20Carolina%2CNorth%20Carolina%2CVirginia#states-normalized

    Will there be another wave sometime or have we finally achieved "flu-season" herd immunity everywhere?
    IDK, because anti-body or other immunity surveys are basically not being done.

    Just saw this amusing piece about Fauci from the NYT (via volokh)

    In the pandemic's early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying "70, 75 percent" in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said "75, 80, 85 percent" and "75 to 80-plus percent."

    In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks….. [H]e believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt ….

    https://reason.com/volokh/2020/12/24/and-we-should-trust-you-now-dr-fauci-because/
     
    It's good to see that he's admitting that he's been basically making things up all along.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Captain Tripps, @Jack D

    Not that I needed any confirmation, but clearly, the faction that is (and has been, for a long while) in charge have completely jettisoned the old elite notion that “honesty is the best policy” for aspiring political leaders/subject matter experts. If it suits their needs, they’ll mislead/lie at the drop of a hat.

    • Replies: @Piglet
    @Captain Tripps


    If it suits their needs, they’ll mislead/lie at the drop of a hat.
     
    “We Americans are the ultimate innocents. We are forever desperate to believe that this time the government is telling us the truth.” Sydney Schanberg, deceased NY Times journalist and author of The Killing Fields

    “Look, if you think any American official is going to tell you the truth, then you’re stupid. Did you hear that? — stupid.” Arthur Sylvester, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs in the 1960s.
    More at:
    https://theintercept.com/2016/05/20/pentagon-official-once-told-morley-safer-that-reporters-who-believe-the-government-are-stupid/
  103. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Marty

    Alright, that's it, Marty! You go across the street and tell Ponch and John that they are on unpaid suspension pending remedial face diaper training. I want them back at the station prontomundo! *

    - Sergeant Getraer

    .


    * Tell 'em the 405's backed up, so hang a louie after Jim Rockford's trailer in Malibu, take the Ventura to the Santa Ana, take the del Rio cut-off through Placenta, then the surface streets just south of Fred Sanford's house in El Segundo.

    Replies: @Ganderson, @Possumman

    What about going to the Slauson Cut-off—getting out and cutting off your slauson?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Possumman

    Heh, heh, heh!

    Heh, heh, heh!

    Ho, ho!

    [/McMahon]

  104. @JohnnyWalker123
    Did you guys watch the inauguration?

    This was one of the major highlights.

    https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1351948067872894979

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Frank McGar, @Mr. Mean, @Jack Armstrong, @The Last Real Calvinist, @Lurker, @Dan Smith

    Clanging is a symptom of schizophrenia in which the patient uses a lot of rhyming words that are nonsensical. Just saying.

  105. @BB753
    @That Would Be Telling

    Look no further than its first variant, SARS-CoV-1, in 2003-2004.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.

    Look no further than its first variant, SARS-CoV-1, in 2003-2004.

    SARS-CoV(-1) does not transmit like -2. Its transmission was driven by a relatively few super spreaders, and killed a lot more of those who got it, dead people of course not being at all efficient at respiratory transmission.

    • Replies: @BB753
    @That Would Be Telling

    I disagree. In 2003-2004, SARS CoV-1 reached Europe where they had a bad "flu year", with more casualties than usual. But it didn't make the news, except in Hong Kong, nor was it a "plandemic", like SARS - CoV-2, which is being used for political, economical and even more sinister reasons.

  106. @That Would Be Telling
    @Wade Hampton


    Herd immunity is Plan B and should have been Plan A this time last year.

    Herd immunity is the ultimate goal. Immediately remove all the lockdowns of the healthy, productive non-elderly. Isolate the elderly who are most at risk until we achieve it. Maybe the vaccines will help....
     
    I haven't come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.

    Replies: @BB753, @botazefa

    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.

    Every single virus similar to covid-19 that hit humanity prior to the invention of vaccines. In past generations we were more accepting of the reality that the weakest in the herd would not make it through a tough winter. We’ve become so dissociated from the reality of human existence that we actually expect our lives to be utterly safe at all times. Isn’t that absurd when you take the time to think about it? As is said, we’re always only 2 meals and 24 hours from chaos.

    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @botazefa



    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.
     
    Every single virus similar to covid-19 that hit humanity prior to the invention of vaccines.
     
    Except for, you know, smallpox, polio, measles, mumps, the flu (special case since immunity is not long lasting through any method) and other causes of "the common cold," including four coronaviruses, yellow fever, hepatitis A, norovirus and a bunch of other causes of gastroenteritis which can be quite fatal in austere situations, etc. etc. etc.

    Try again, or learn what herd immunity really means.
  107. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    I suppose Plan B is just "flattening the curve".

    Whatever happened to that, by the way? Did the curve get flattened? It seems like that was Plan A initially, but then it somehow morphed into "Stopping the spread".

    By the way, Ioannadis has a new study out which, if I understand it correctly (big "if") proves wrong Cochran's earlier hypothesis, viz. that you might as well lock down hard than soft.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    I suppose Plan B is just “flattening the curve”.

    Whatever happened to that, by the way? Did the curve get flattened? It seems like that was Plan A initially, but then it somehow morphed into “Stopping the spread”.

    Not sure, but all plans should always have had the curve in mind, because if your fail at that like the New York state part of the NYC metro early on (although there are a lot of moving parts to that, including Cuomo’s Final Solution to the Medicaid Problem), or Southern California as of late, your death rates go way up because you can’t provide adequate treatment to all patients who need hospital care, including “normal,” non-COVID-19 ones.

    And see how the very highest priority to vaccinate was front line hospital workers, if you have many fewer of those out sick with COVID-19, you correspondingly boost your hospital capacity, the hard limit of which is well trained workers, not equipment or beds, isolation or ICU (so is reported with specifics by for example “Aesop” in non-LA Southern California, and I have been reporting locally in my part of flyover country).

    By the way, Ioannadis has a new study out which, if I understand it correctly (big “if”)

    If you’re not serious expert in the topic, anything with his name on it should get a hard pass, instead wait for it to be Fisked.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling


    Final Solution to the Medicaid Problem
     
    That's a great line. NY anons & Cuomo's enemies should start hammering that one - memes with Cuomo as Hitler, Cuomo photoshopped into Schindler's List, etc

    the very highest priority to vaccinate was front line hospital workers, if you have many fewer of those out sick with COVID-19, you correspondingly boost your hospital capacity
     
    I wonder if it'd make sense to space out such vaccinations: you vaccinate every hospital worker at once, how many of them have a bad reaction to the vaccine and take a few days off... Probably nothing to worry about

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  108. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @utu

    It is a high IQ thing. If China won the image contest for the country avoiding most cases, Israelis are aiming for the best vaccinator pretense. Superpower 2020 would have been the best manufacturer, were it not for the fire at the Serum Institute.

    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless. This became apparent as soon as September, so by this time, you would have hoped the the high-IQ US scientists, most of whom are Jews or Hindus too, would have bothered with proper treatments. They could have tried making antiviral molecules, instead of misleadingly rebranding remdesivir. They should have ramped up the study and eventually the industrial production of antiviral sera and antibodies, of the sort that Trump took. These are very obvious avenues if you look at other viral diseases (HIV, hep C, even varicella).

    But again, it takes a yuuge IQ to focus almost exclusively on a vaccine using an unproven method. It's on a par with pretending the millions of Palestinians don't exist. This is what you get when you assemble the largest Powerpoint producers in the world.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless. This became apparent as soon as September

    Citation Needed, because this has not been at all apparent based on my readings of this subject. Natural immunity is reported to be strong, lasting way past what you could discern starting in September, although by definition we cannot say for sure how long it will last, but it looks good based on our general knowledge of adaptive immune system reactions to other viruses.

    • Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros
    @That Would Be Telling

    Per https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02506-y dated Sept 4th, "Reports of possible reinfections have circulated for months, but the recent findings are the first to seemingly rule out the possibility that a second infection was merely a continuation of a first. To establish that the two infections in each person were separate events, the Hong Kong and Nevada teams each sequenced the viral genomes from the first and second infections. Both found enough differences to convince them that separate variants of the virus were at work. But, with only two examples, it is still unclear how frequently reinfections occur. And with 26 million known coronavirus infections worldwide so far, a few reinfections might not be cause to worry — yet, says virologist Thomas Geisbert of the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston. We need a lot more information on how prevalent this is, he says."

    Yesterday's BMJ counted 31 reinfections including 2 deaths. The fatality rate 2:31 being so much higher than the the usual 0.1%, I'd think reinfections are undercounted. Sure, they still seem few now. But they are not zero either.

    I had enough of the prevention, due to its lack of efficacy. I'd like to have a small-molecule treatment that I can take at home, something like "hydroxy".

    Replies: @Anon, @That Would Be Telling

  109. Oh for goodness sake. The cases go up, they peak, then they go down. Every “wave” is exactly the same and plays out in about 8 to 12 weeks. It doesn’t make the slightest difference what “precautions” you take.

  110. @Desiderius
    @Art Deco

    The extraordinarily high level of false positives is finally making it over the fence into official circles now that the real threat seems finally averted.

    Plan B has always been get rid of Trump then act natural.

    Replies: @My SIMPLE Pseudonymic Handle

    But, you’re not going to be able drop the facade too quickly.

    Imagine millions of maskholes and Covid Cultists waking up in the morning only to finally figure out the whole thing was a scam. A scam to rid the Deep Shiite State of Trump.

    It looks like it might take until early/late spring or even possibly early summer before the whole Bernie Madoff casedemic meme collapses. Push the vaccines, that nobody seems to want or why would you need a “One Million per Day Vaccination Push”. Announce cases are dropping implying the vaccine must be working with the intent that it might drive the sheep to get the jab. Especially those that were somewhat hesitant to get a jab in the first place.

    And, then announce the goal of a million a day getting vaccinated even if they have to fudge the numbers like the 2020 vote counts. Then by spring or summer announce Mission Accomplished. All during this time cases will begin to approach zero asymptotically. While Cuhomo, Gavin Gruesome, and Whitless lead the charge to start opening up the economy.

    Oops, it appears the reverse brainwashing has already commenced:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-covid-19-cases-in-the-us-declined-11-25-after-hitting-a-peak-last-week/ar-BB1cSedh

    Rise up maskholes and remove the filthy bacteria laden sacred diaper.

  111. Anon[559] • Disclaimer says:
    @Moral Stone
    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way. That obviously isn’t ideal, but it’s hardly the apocalypse either. M&M rates among healthy working age people are minuscule, and the vulnerable can continue to self isolate. We certainly can’t lock down everyone forever, although I suspect our kind government overlords would love to try.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Captain Tripps, @Anon

    In case of a so-so vaccine which seems quite possible, the true option is to do actual medicine: early testing and early treatment. In this instance, a home treatment that will take care of the disease in the early stage and avoid hospital overflow.

    There is quite a case being built in France —and other places— that HCQ plus azithromycin does work, and it was deliberately blocked in order to sell a competing molecule, remdesivir. Gilead’s share price nearly doubled when the Lancet shot down HCQ in May 2020.
    Gilead sold 1 billion euros just to the EU regulator in a couple of months later, just before the WHO had to come out and say remdesivir didn’t work (it didn’t lower mortality.)

    Now that Trump and remdesivir are out, we are about to find out the vaccine won’t be a silver bullet (10-30% of the population will still need treatment, right?). There are shy mentions in media about Ivermectin, an old molecule that has been repurposed since last May for Covid 19. Also some rumblings about strains/mutations, which are known by the medical community since last April.

    Here’s an appeal to authority, with a (somewhat stilted) summary of Didier Raoult’s latest video on Covid vaccines:

    1) He does not have a binary thinking on vaccine (always good or always bad). It is an individual choice in consultation with a doctor.
    2) He will apply French law. He will not do media public vaccination or say what he chose to do.
    3) As to Covid vaccines, due to time pressure, the samples to evaluate the security or efficacity of the vaccine have not been obtained. (2:40)
    4) Whether people in the long term, or over millions of individuals it can have unforeseeable side effects cannot be scientically said today.

    [MORE]

    5) In the short term, (few months), and a few thousand of individuals, it is not dangerous. That we know.
    6) Thus, the risk/benefit for people very exposed to Covid or very in danger of developing a bad case, can be worth it.
    7) What are the doubts?
    – For the new technology (mRNA) and adenovirus. If person is aged or immunocompromised it’s fine. We can’t say that for people who will keep the vaccine for decades.
    – Live attenuated vaccines are thought to be safe. However, we have to be aware that more poliomyelitis strains are due to vaccination than to nature. Because vaccination continued where polio had already been eradicated and that created strains.Vaccination strategies have to be re-evaluated in time. So, live-attenuated virus vaccines that can be safely omitted in a given population, should be. Again, inactivated virus vaccines are thought safe.
    8) Once we have a vaccine, we look at its safety: First, there could be small reactions (fever, local pain). But even with saline solution, you can get a “nocebo effect”. So for a vaccine it’s important to have a placebo group, to know that it is not a vaccine reaction but a reaction to the aggression of any injection.
    9) Second, there are the coincidences. When you vaccinate 30 million people, in the next 30 months, many things can occur: car accidents, esclerosis en plaque, etc. For Covid19, we have a lot of observation going on, we should know if accidents occur.
    10) Second factor we look at is efficacity. Some like Pfizer have 90%. The AZ around 70%, probably less for target populations (old, infirm).That’s so in the studies. In real life then people will still get infected with Covid. Vaccines are instrument to fight epidemics, diminish number of cases.
    11) For the vaccines based on the virus, it generates a response to the protein (spike).(min16:00). An unresolved question is whether the virus will generate mutations in that zone. Another is whether the Covid mutations that already exist will still be sensitive to that spike. But we will know soon because England has 70% of its variants with changes in the Spike. We will see what infections happen there.
    12) If infections happen, it will mean we have to amplify the strains or the coding sequences like we do for the grippe. You need to vaccinate against the flu every year.
    13) Another point that we don’t know is the length of the immunity. To begin with natural immunity is already medium, people get sick again in three months. We’ll see.
    14) I have given my point of view as doctor, as scientist and now as public servant. Order of vaccination in France and Europe: first, carers in old-age residences, the all older than 75, then medical staff of more than 65, then all older than 65, etc

    By the way, in another video, Raoult grumbles that even though medical regulators say the mRNA cannot penetrate into DNA, we have known for 32 years this is FALSE. But then, I’m not a doctor. I’ll have to choose which authority to believe, and hope I choose the one without conflict of interest.

    • Thanks: Dieter Kief
    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Anon

    Who should get the vaccine first, according to Dr. Didier Raoult:


    first, carers in old-age residences, the all older than 75, then medical staff of more than 65, then all older than 65, etc
     
    That's reasonable.

    Replies: @Anon

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Anon


    3) As to Covid vaccines, due to time pressure, the samples to evaluate the security or efficacity of the vaccine have not been obtained.
     
    Not to his satisfaction, the FDA's for licensure, or the EU's European Medicines Agency's for beyond conditional marketing authorizations, but we do have substantial data, and are getting a heck of a lot more now that we're vaccinating millions of people under emergency authorizations.

    4) Whether people in the long term, or over millions of individuals it can have unforeseeable side effects cannot be scientically said today.
     
    Well, yeah, and that's always the case, for example you don't likely find 1 in 100,000 bad side effects with normal sized trials where perhaps at most 20,000 people get the vaccine. But there is a claim the worst side effects happen within one and a half month, thus the FDA requirement for two months of safety data on one half of those who got the vaccine. There are no sure bets in an emergency like this.

    For the new technology (mRNA) and adenovirus. If person is aged or immunocompromised it’s fine. We can’t say that for people who will keep the vaccine for decades.
     
    Can you clarify this? I really don't understand the last sentence.

    Live attenuated vaccines are thought to be safe. However, we have to be aware that more poliomyelitis strains are due to vaccination than to nature.
     
    They aren't all that safe, see his previous comment on the aged or imunocompromised while noting neither mRNA or virus vector vaccines reproduce, and the polio example is based on its passing through a number of people until it regains its fangs. And, you know, no one is anywhere near an live attenuated virus vaccine for COVID-19, it's not on this year's menu, perhaps not next year's.

    Again, inactivated virus vaccines are thought safe.
     
    Not true for RSV from the 1960s, and not true in prior experiments with SARS type coronaviruses which he has little excuse for not knowing about and pontificating on them. See my many postings on antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), and what had to be done to make COVID-19 vaccines safe from that. 9) on what happens when you deal with large populations is a point people should really burn in their minds.

    13) Another point that we don’t know is the length of the immunity. To begin with natural immunity is already medium, people get sick again in three months.
     
    CITATION NEEDED!!! I see why this guy gets so little respect.

    By the way, in another video, Raoult grumbles that even though medical regulators say the mRNA cannot penetrate into DNA, we have known for 32 years this is FALSE.
     
    Again, Citation Needed, because the only mechanism I know of us knowing is using retrovirus enzymes, and that doesn't match any 32 year ago timeline. So he might be talking about something newer, although it should be remembered that when mRNA vaccines work, the body kills the cells that get hijacked dead.

    For that matter, here he abjectly fails, because live attenuated virus vaccines by definition at some point use mRNA to make virus proteins!
  112. How about the COVID “vaccines” initially make people more susceptible to infection, which seems to be an observable and repeating pattern around the world.

    These aren’t technically vaccines in the traditional syntax.

  113. @epebble
    Per IHME,

    Today's death count = 409,000
    Predicted 2/21/21: 506,000; rate = 97,000 per 31 days
    Predicted 3/21/21: 541 - 548,000 => 35 - 42,000 per 28 days
    Predicted 4/21/21: 552 - 564,000 => 11 - 16,000 per 31 days

    Not all expected reductions are due to vaccines; Warming weather has much bigger impact. But, what is not in question is, vaccines are not mattering much in the next 3 months.

    In fact, masks are twice as efficient in lowering death counts in the next 3 months.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    FWIW, roughly 7,400 people died each day from all causes in 2019, which makes the COVID stats look a lot less scary.

  114. @That Would Be Telling
    @Moral Stone


    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way.
     
    In the second case of new strains, you start building herd immunity from scratch, starting with everyone who's already survived COVID-19. As Jack D notes, though, that'll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic. I'd also like a citation on your claim that morbidity "rates among healthy working age people are minuscule." I'm not following this, but I've gotten the impression its at least somewhat larger than that vague word.

    There's a possible exception for the starting all over, if the spike protein almost all current well progressed vaccine target is able to sufficiently mutate and still function, but the nucleocapsid protein which natural immunity also targets doesn't change enough, in which case new vaccines will be needed for those who got immunity that way, which obviously might target or also target that protein.

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique among RNA viruses, for which we have plenty of "eternal" vaccines. Against us is that no matter how suspiciously well adapted to humans SARS-CoV-2 is, it'll come under selection pressure to get around natural and vaccine immunity if we actually get enough people immune, which I personally am doubting will happen for years, if ever in terms of the world, and so far it looks like for many developed countries absent coercion (just one of many costs of a hostile ruling elite). And we presume that's what's happened with the U.K. mutation for example, except with a single human body with a wonky immune system that kept the person alive but allowed fierce ecological competition inside it.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Moral Stone, @Moral Stone

    I’m basing my comment on the CDC data for provisional deaths related to covid-19, and these are mortality figures. These may be inflated although that aspect is unclear. But according to this data, the 220 million or so Americans between 15-65 years of age have experienced a 0.02% mortality rate from covid, and I’m not misusing the percentage there. Of those deaths, ~75% are in the 55-65 demographic (experiencing more like a 0.1% population mortality rate) leaving an even smaller number for the under 55 age groups. If serious morbidity occurs an order of magnitude more frequently than mortality (a complete guess), then M&M is maybe 1/500 working age people, heavily concentrated on the 55-65 age group nearing retirement age. This thing isn’t gonna keep food off the shelves or anything like that, since it largely misses the sub-55s, and almost completely misses the sub-45s.

  115. @That Would Be Telling
    @Moral Stone


    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way.
     
    In the second case of new strains, you start building herd immunity from scratch, starting with everyone who's already survived COVID-19. As Jack D notes, though, that'll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic. I'd also like a citation on your claim that morbidity "rates among healthy working age people are minuscule." I'm not following this, but I've gotten the impression its at least somewhat larger than that vague word.

    There's a possible exception for the starting all over, if the spike protein almost all current well progressed vaccine target is able to sufficiently mutate and still function, but the nucleocapsid protein which natural immunity also targets doesn't change enough, in which case new vaccines will be needed for those who got immunity that way, which obviously might target or also target that protein.

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique among RNA viruses, for which we have plenty of "eternal" vaccines. Against us is that no matter how suspiciously well adapted to humans SARS-CoV-2 is, it'll come under selection pressure to get around natural and vaccine immunity if we actually get enough people immune, which I personally am doubting will happen for years, if ever in terms of the world, and so far it looks like for many developed countries absent coercion (just one of many costs of a hostile ruling elite). And we presume that's what's happened with the U.K. mutation for example, except with a single human body with a wonky immune system that kept the person alive but allowed fierce ecological competition inside it.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Moral Stone, @Moral Stone

    I’m basing my comment on the CDC data for provisional deaths related to covid-19, and these are mortality figures. These may be inflated although that aspect is unclear. But according to this data, the 220 million or so Americans between 15-65 years of age have experienced a 0.02% mortality rate from covid, and I’m not misusing the percentage there. Of those deaths, ~75% are in the 55-65 demographic (experiencing more like a 0.1% population mortality rate) leaving an even smaller number for the under 55 age groups. If serious morbidity occurs an order of magnitude more frequently than mortality (a complete guess), then M&M is maybe 1/500 working age people, heavily concentrated on the 55-65 age group nearing retirement age. This thing isn’t gonna keep food off the shelves or anything like that, since it largely misses the sub-55s, and almost completely misses the sub-45s.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Moral Stone

    If your figures are correct and I have no reason to doubt except that we think official COVID-19 labeled deaths are undercounted, then as long as you trimmed the last 4-8 weeks from the CDC mortality figures, we're talking 44,000 dead so far in the 15-65 range. As in, I'm assuming your 0.02% death rate will rise as more people get COVID-19, the 220 million base you use is obviously the total of the cohort, not total infected in that cohort.

    So while I'd from memory add a 16% enhancement to that for the undercounting, the big thing is to try to extrapolate from where we are today to what we'd get if we let it rip through the population, using iffy estimates of total infected. Perhaps going through twice or thrice, hopefully killing many fewer each time ... but we don't know why and when it kills, do we? Absent vaccines I'm not counting on herd immunity, I bet it will be with us until it can no longer mutate beyond the ability of our vaccines, and even then will still stalk the world absent a successful eradication campaign.

    If your wild morbidity guess were correct and we add my enhancement, here I'm trying to make a worse case wild guess, we're talking half a million people in that cohort with serious morbidity. Which taking a step back strikes me as wrong, or our ruling trash including our public health authorities and the media have been missing a stupendous club with which to beat on the BAD ORANGE MAN.

    Which is entirely possible, they're trash, but for now I'd dial that way back, I'd for example start with 10% of cases or some subset of them. But it could easily not be a "minuscule" number, as well as the total number of deaths if we just let it run through the 15-65 population. And still, a lot of the elderly are not obtaining isolation, it takes only one mistake, and isolation is costly in many ways, which I say in part speaking from direct experience.

    We should also be careful about morbidity assumptions and cohorts. For example it could have a weight towards the younger because they're more likely to survive.

    TL;DR: I sincerely hope we get lots of safe and effective vaccine doses by the end of the second quarter, not more optimistic since Pfizer and Janssen are disappointing us for the first quarter, and that our bodies hit at least one conserved spike protein epitope so we don't have to go through this game again. Because while not being apocalyptic, the numbers are still potentially fairly grim for the younger, and we know they're something of an apocalypse for the older.

  116. @vhrm
    @Jack D


    ... if we had really reached herd immunity infections would be falling and they aren’t.
     
    As i'm sure others will point out, daily new cases have been declining for the past week in the US, EU and UK as is test positivity rate in US and UK.

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don't seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=California&show=pop-large&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=South%20Carolina%2CNorth%20Carolina%2CVirginia#states-normalized

    Will there be another wave sometime or have we finally achieved "flu-season" herd immunity everywhere?
    IDK, because anti-body or other immunity surveys are basically not being done.

    Just saw this amusing piece about Fauci from the NYT (via volokh)

    In the pandemic's early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying "70, 75 percent" in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said "75, 80, 85 percent" and "75 to 80-plus percent."

    In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks….. [H]e believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt ….

    https://reason.com/volokh/2020/12/24/and-we-should-trust-you-now-dr-fauci-because/
     
    It's good to see that he's admitting that he's been basically making things up all along.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Captain Tripps, @Jack D

    There has been a small decline from a very high peak after lockdowns were reinstituted in some places – this is not very strong evidence of herd immunity being reached.

    No one (including Fauci) really knows what the herd immunity level for Covid is. Herd immunity is in part based on behavioral factors such as compliance with social distancing, etc. and the compliance has been worse than anyone expected. Also the virus seems to be mutating to make itself more contagious. It’s not unheard of for airborne viral diseases (measles) to have herd immunity levels in the 90’s.

    Earlier estimates for Covid were perhaps overoptimistic. Trump especially did not like to hear bad news and so those around him were pressured to put an optimistic spin on things. Perhaps Biden is the opposite so that 60 is too low and 90 is too high and 75% is really about right. We’ll see.

    • Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia
    @Jack D


    No one (including Fauci) really knows what the herd immunity level for Covid is.
     
    Of course, that doesn't prevent the little Napoleonic shit from pontificating about everything under the sun.

    To paraphrase Bill Burr, I am a not an angry person, but when it comes to the Italian shrimp Dr. Fauci (and other contemptible souls), anger is the default emotion.
  117. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @utu

    It is a high IQ thing. If China won the image contest for the country avoiding most cases, Israelis are aiming for the best vaccinator pretense. Superpower 2020 would have been the best manufacturer, were it not for the fire at the Serum Institute.

    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless. This became apparent as soon as September, so by this time, you would have hoped the the high-IQ US scientists, most of whom are Jews or Hindus too, would have bothered with proper treatments. They could have tried making antiviral molecules, instead of misleadingly rebranding remdesivir. They should have ramped up the study and eventually the industrial production of antiviral sera and antibodies, of the sort that Trump took. These are very obvious avenues if you look at other viral diseases (HIV, hep C, even varicella).

    But again, it takes a yuuge IQ to focus almost exclusively on a vaccine using an unproven method. It's on a par with pretending the millions of Palestinians don't exist. This is what you get when you assemble the largest Powerpoint producers in the world.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Jack D

    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless.

    Even assuming that your premise is true (it most likely isn’t) then vaccines are not useless. All you have to do is keep giving the vaccine annually (or semi-annually or for however long the immunity lasts). This is what we do with flu and it’s no problem.

    Right now we are having all sorts of teething problems in getting people their two doses. But eventually we’ll have 1 dose vaccines (which by themselves cut the problem in half) and vaccines that are easier to handle and the creaky infrastructure for vaccine administration will get cranked up. They are even talking about possibly having a future combined flu and covid vaccine. Instead of getting your annual flu shot, you’ll get your annual flu/covid shot. It’s really no big deal.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D


    Right now we are having all sorts of teething problems in getting people their two doses. But eventually we’ll have 1 dose vaccines (which by themselves cut the problem in half) and vaccines that are easier to handle and the creaky infrastructure for vaccine administration will get cranked up.
     
    Might be sooner than later. Saint Fauci was saying we might get good news from Janssen (a unit of Johnson and Johnson) RSN like in a week or so. Yes, he's a liar and was also talking up the AZ/Oxford clown show, but he is in a position to hear when Janssen's Phase III trials might be bearing fruit.

    Their first trial is for their ambitious goal of a single dose virus vector vaccine, using a platform that's already achieved Phase III EU as I remember success with Ebola, although it's not the vaccine that made such a big difference in the last outbreak which uses another high/new tech approach. They've taken a slow, careful approach, for a goal to vaccinate a billion people this year.

    But they're not sure one dose will work, or be super "north of 90%" effective, based on their starting later another Phase III trial with two doses 57 days apart, that's 8 weeks, plus various comments filtered through the ORANGE MAN BAD media (remember, everything you read in the MSM about COVID-19 started with a narrative and only claims facts to support that narrative).

    An unreliable source linked to by Wikipedia says it can be stored three months in a medical fridge, which is plausible and needed to meet their overarching goal. On the other hand, the NYT says manufacturing issues will cause them to miss their initial very early this year production promises, where were a very modest 12 million doses by the end of February....
    , @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Jack D

    Not all vaccines are truly effective. Per CDC, during the 2019-2020 season, influenza vaccine prevented 6 thousand deaths, but did not prevent other 22 thousand deaths in USA. i don't think cutting down the deaths by less than a quarter counts as a big success. (The rate of vaccination was 52% at the level of whole USA, meaning there isn't a lot of space for intensification.)

    Vaccines alone are likely not enough for the elderly or the fatties.

    Replies: @Jack D

  118. @Ganderson
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    My niece is a world class athlete- she called asking our advice about whether she should expose herself to the ‘Rona. I said yes, my wife said no. ( women got the men like a puppet show...)

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?

    Replies: @Jack D, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    she called asking our advice about whether she should expose herself to the ‘Rona.

    What kind of stupid question is that? Even if you are opposed to the vaccine, even if you think that covid is just the flu, why would you intentionally expose yourself to a disease? Maybe you’ll get it eventually anyway, but why be in a rush to get sick?

    Are you and your wife physicians? Why is she discussing this with you instead of with her doctor?

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?

    There are plenty of reasons to do so. First of all, the risk of death doesn’t really drop to almost zero until you get below 30. Plenty of dead in their 40s and 50s. 2nd, even if you don’t die from Covid it can have lingering unpleasant side effects such as long term loss of taste and smell even in younger people. Not to mention loss of lung capacity – very important to athletes. Whatever side effects have been noted from the vaccine have so far been extremely short term – a few days and after that you go back to 100% normal. Lastly, getting vaccinated (probably) keeps you from spreading Covid to your family members and other contacts, some of whom are older and at high risk. Wouldn’t your niece feel guilty if she gave Covid to grandma and it killed her?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D



    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?
     
    There are plenty of reasons to do so. First of all, the risk of death doesn’t really drop to almost zero until you get below 30. Plenty of dead in their 40s and 50s. [And then there's morbidity.]
     
    Can confirm that for my very local region in flyover country, plenty of people in the 50s dying, some in their 40s. I suppose it's time I work through old reports and build a statistical picture of what we're experiencing.

    Seriously, folks, whether or not you believe the official causes on death certificates, the CDC's tallying of total "all cause" mortality is so big and beyond official COVID-19 labeled deaths we're way beyond the last flu pandemics in the 20th Century, even adjusting for population increases. However much it comforts you to believe it's not at all a threat to yourself or your youngish loved ones, you're wrong, and I hope you don't find that out the hard way if any of them roll snake eyes.

    Replies: @Jack D

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Jack D


    What kind of stupid question is that? Even if you are opposed to the vaccine, even if you think that covid is just the flu, why would you intentionally expose yourself to a disease? Maybe you’ll get it eventually anyway, but why be in a rush to get sick?
     
    Obviously, to get immunity. This applies even if you don't think it's just the flu: the world's doctors have considerably more experience with the symptoms of the virus than they do with the side effects of the vaccine. For young healthy people, the risk might be greater for the latter.

    Wouldn’t your niece feel guilty if she gave Covid to grandma and it killed her?
     
    The lack of critical thinking people are evincing around the virus is really quite something. A person intentionally infecting themself would obviously be quarantining for two weeks or more afterwards, so Grandma should be safe.

    And before you start, no, I'm not advocating this, just entertaining it.
  119. The history of flu pandemics suggests that with or without vaccine this winter would be the end of it anyway.

  120. @Jack D
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless.
     
    Even assuming that your premise is true (it most likely isn't) then vaccines are not useless. All you have to do is keep giving the vaccine annually (or semi-annually or for however long the immunity lasts). This is what we do with flu and it's no problem.

    Right now we are having all sorts of teething problems in getting people their two doses. But eventually we'll have 1 dose vaccines (which by themselves cut the problem in half) and vaccines that are easier to handle and the creaky infrastructure for vaccine administration will get cranked up. They are even talking about possibly having a future combined flu and covid vaccine. Instead of getting your annual flu shot, you'll get your annual flu/covid shot. It's really no big deal.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Dacian Julien Soros

    Right now we are having all sorts of teething problems in getting people their two doses. But eventually we’ll have 1 dose vaccines (which by themselves cut the problem in half) and vaccines that are easier to handle and the creaky infrastructure for vaccine administration will get cranked up.

    Might be sooner than later. Saint Fauci was saying we might get good news from Janssen (a unit of Johnson and Johnson) RSN like in a week or so. Yes, he’s a liar and was also talking up the AZ/Oxford clown show, but he is in a position to hear when Janssen’s Phase III trials might be bearing fruit.

    Their first trial is for their ambitious goal of a single dose virus vector vaccine, using a platform that’s already achieved Phase III EU as I remember success with Ebola, although it’s not the vaccine that made such a big difference in the last outbreak which uses another high/new tech approach. They’ve taken a slow, careful approach, for a goal to vaccinate a billion people this year.

    But they’re not sure one dose will work, or be super “north of 90%” effective, based on their starting later another Phase III trial with two doses 57 days apart, that’s 8 weeks, plus various comments filtered through the ORANGE MAN BAD media (remember, everything you read in the MSM about COVID-19 started with a narrative and only claims facts to support that narrative).

    An unreliable source linked to by Wikipedia says it can be stored three months in a medical fridge, which is plausible and needed to meet their overarching goal. On the other hand, the NYT says manufacturing issues will cause them to miss their initial very early this year production promises, where were a very modest 12 million doses by the end of February….

  121. @Jack D
    @Ganderson


    she called asking our advice about whether she should expose herself to the ‘Rona.
     
    What kind of stupid question is that? Even if you are opposed to the vaccine, even if you think that covid is just the flu, why would you intentionally expose yourself to a disease? Maybe you'll get it eventually anyway, but why be in a rush to get sick?

    Are you and your wife physicians? Why is she discussing this with you instead of with her doctor?

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?
     
    There are plenty of reasons to do so. First of all, the risk of death doesn't really drop to almost zero until you get below 30. Plenty of dead in their 40s and 50s. 2nd, even if you don't die from Covid it can have lingering unpleasant side effects such as long term loss of taste and smell even in younger people. Not to mention loss of lung capacity - very important to athletes. Whatever side effects have been noted from the vaccine have so far been extremely short term - a few days and after that you go back to 100% normal. Lastly, getting vaccinated (probably) keeps you from spreading Covid to your family members and other contacts, some of whom are older and at high risk. Wouldn't your niece feel guilty if she gave Covid to grandma and it killed her?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?

    There are plenty of reasons to do so. First of all, the risk of death doesn’t really drop to almost zero until you get below 30. Plenty of dead in their 40s and 50s. [And then there’s morbidity.]

    Can confirm that for my very local region in flyover country, plenty of people in the 50s dying, some in their 40s. I suppose it’s time I work through old reports and build a statistical picture of what we’re experiencing.

    Seriously, folks, whether or not you believe the official causes on death certificates, the CDC’s tallying of total “all cause” mortality is so big and beyond official COVID-19 labeled deaths we’re way beyond the last flu pandemics in the 20th Century, even adjusting for population increases. However much it comforts you to believe it’s not at all a threat to yourself or your youngish loved ones, you’re wrong, and I hope you don’t find that out the hard way if any of them roll snake eyes.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @That Would Be Telling


    However much it comforts you to believe it’s not at all a threat to yourself
     
    I really really don't understand the denialists. It's at a mental illness level of denial. They used to say that you were entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts, but nowadays people seem to want to have their own facts too.
  122. @YetAnotherAnon
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-real-world-analysis-of-vaccine-in-israel-raises-questions-about-uk-strategy-12192751

    Replies: @HA, @Aardvark

    And then this:

    Helsinki Committee to declare Pfizer performing unauthorized human experiment in Israel

    Can we get that committee to declare they are doing the same thing here?

  123. @That Would Be Telling
    @Jack D



    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?
     
    There are plenty of reasons to do so. First of all, the risk of death doesn’t really drop to almost zero until you get below 30. Plenty of dead in their 40s and 50s. [And then there's morbidity.]
     
    Can confirm that for my very local region in flyover country, plenty of people in the 50s dying, some in their 40s. I suppose it's time I work through old reports and build a statistical picture of what we're experiencing.

    Seriously, folks, whether or not you believe the official causes on death certificates, the CDC's tallying of total "all cause" mortality is so big and beyond official COVID-19 labeled deaths we're way beyond the last flu pandemics in the 20th Century, even adjusting for population increases. However much it comforts you to believe it's not at all a threat to yourself or your youngish loved ones, you're wrong, and I hope you don't find that out the hard way if any of them roll snake eyes.

    Replies: @Jack D

    However much it comforts you to believe it’s not at all a threat to yourself

    I really really don’t understand the denialists. It’s at a mental illness level of denial. They used to say that you were entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts, but nowadays people seem to want to have their own facts too.

  124. Chill out, Steve: “Coronavirus infections in Israel are soaring among those yet to be vaccinated,”

  125. @Desiderius
    @Desiderius

    https://twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1352372049684160514?s=20

    The dividing line is this: they are still on the inside while we are not, although some of us pass as needed.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    The dividing line is this: they are still on the inside while we are not, although some of us pass as needed.

    Often times we presume we would love people that are mightier than we are, but it is just our egoism, which creates the foundation of our friendship. We don’t rely on them to do something for them but rather to be helped out by them.

    Haha – Reflections and Moral Sentences – La Rochefoucauld, Paris, 1665

  126. @Colin Wright
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    'Colin, how do you think Palestinians would react to truckloads of vaccines delivered by Israeli doctors offering assurances that it’s all perfectly safe? I’m thinking with some skepticism.'

    Kind of a moot point, isn't it? Somehow, I don't think it's fear of rejection that's holding the Jews back.

    Replies: @Ghost of Bull Moose

    The Israeli Muslims, Christians and Druze are getting the vaccine okay.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    The Israeli Muslims, Christians and Druze are getting the vaccine okay.

    This (a) is not true, and (b) overlooks the fact that whatever sophistries she might employ, Israel enjoys sovereignty over the West Bank and Gaza, and thereby assumes the legal obligations of that status.

    Could the Nazis say, 'we don't rule the Warsaw Ghetto. It's not our problem if they're not getting food'?

    Replies: @Jack D

  127. @Moral Stone
    @That Would Be Telling

    I’m basing my comment on the CDC data for provisional deaths related to covid-19, and these are mortality figures. These may be inflated although that aspect is unclear. But according to this data, the 220 million or so Americans between 15-65 years of age have experienced a 0.02% mortality rate from covid, and I’m not misusing the percentage there. Of those deaths, ~75% are in the 55-65 demographic (experiencing more like a 0.1% population mortality rate) leaving an even smaller number for the under 55 age groups. If serious morbidity occurs an order of magnitude more frequently than mortality (a complete guess), then M&M is maybe 1/500 working age people, heavily concentrated on the 55-65 age group nearing retirement age. This thing isn’t gonna keep food off the shelves or anything like that, since it largely misses the sub-55s, and almost completely misses the sub-45s.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    If your figures are correct and I have no reason to doubt except that we think official COVID-19 labeled deaths are undercounted, then as long as you trimmed the last 4-8 weeks from the CDC mortality figures, we’re talking 44,000 dead so far in the 15-65 range. As in, I’m assuming your 0.02% death rate will rise as more people get COVID-19, the 220 million base you use is obviously the total of the cohort, not total infected in that cohort.

    So while I’d from memory add a 16% enhancement to that for the undercounting, the big thing is to try to extrapolate from where we are today to what we’d get if we let it rip through the population, using iffy estimates of total infected. Perhaps going through twice or thrice, hopefully killing many fewer each time … but we don’t know why and when it kills, do we? Absent vaccines I’m not counting on herd immunity, I bet it will be with us until it can no longer mutate beyond the ability of our vaccines, and even then will still stalk the world absent a successful eradication campaign.

    If your wild morbidity guess were correct and we add my enhancement, here I’m trying to make a worse case wild guess, we’re talking half a million people in that cohort with serious morbidity. Which taking a step back strikes me as wrong, or our ruling trash including our public health authorities and the media have been missing a stupendous club with which to beat on the BAD ORANGE MAN.

    Which is entirely possible, they’re trash, but for now I’d dial that way back, I’d for example start with 10% of cases or some subset of them. But it could easily not be a “minuscule” number, as well as the total number of deaths if we just let it run through the 15-65 population. And still, a lot of the elderly are not obtaining isolation, it takes only one mistake, and isolation is costly in many ways, which I say in part speaking from direct experience.

    We should also be careful about morbidity assumptions and cohorts. For example it could have a weight towards the younger because they’re more likely to survive.

    TL;DR: I sincerely hope we get lots of safe and effective vaccine doses by the end of the second quarter, not more optimistic since Pfizer and Janssen are disappointing us for the first quarter, and that our bodies hit at least one conserved spike protein epitope so we don’t have to go through this game again. Because while not being apocalyptic, the numbers are still potentially fairly grim for the younger, and we know they’re something of an apocalypse for the older.

  128. @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    Further, in the US all the populous states save Virginia and the Carolinas seem to be over the hump on cases so there don’t seem to be any reservoirs of people ready to be

    The San Francisco Bay Area has barely been touched so far in the pandemic. I'm guessing there are other places as well.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account, @AnotherDad, @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    Despite having a median age more or less equivalent to the USA, the percentage of blacks and elderly in San Francisco is lower. The population skews young.

    Moreover, the oldsters, as well as the blacks, tend to be wealthier and healthier, I would surmise.

    It’s arguable that the draconian lockdowns there have kept things under control, but I would credit the city’s unusual demo before I’d give ANY credit to London Breed, as contemptible a politician and human as one could imagine.

  129. @Jack D
    @vhrm

    There has been a small decline from a very high peak after lockdowns were reinstituted in some places - this is not very strong evidence of herd immunity being reached.

    No one (including Fauci) really knows what the herd immunity level for Covid is. Herd immunity is in part based on behavioral factors such as compliance with social distancing, etc. and the compliance has been worse than anyone expected. Also the virus seems to be mutating to make itself more contagious. It's not unheard of for airborne viral diseases (measles) to have herd immunity levels in the 90's.

    Earlier estimates for Covid were perhaps overoptimistic. Trump especially did not like to hear bad news and so those around him were pressured to put an optimistic spin on things. Perhaps Biden is the opposite so that 60 is too low and 90 is too high and 75% is really about right. We'll see.

    Replies: @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    No one (including Fauci) really knows what the herd immunity level for Covid is.

    Of course, that doesn’t prevent the little Napoleonic shit from pontificating about everything under the sun.

    To paraphrase Bill Burr, I am a not an angry person, but when it comes to the Italian shrimp Dr. Fauci (and other contemptible souls), anger is the default emotion.

  130. @Anon
    @Moral Stone

    In case of a so-so vaccine which seems quite possible, the true option is to do actual medicine: early testing and early treatment. In this instance, a home treatment that will take care of the disease in the early stage and avoid hospital overflow.

    There is quite a case being built in France —and other places— that HCQ plus azithromycin does work, and it was deliberately blocked in order to sell a competing molecule, remdesivir. Gilead’s share price nearly doubled when the Lancet shot down HCQ in May 2020.
    Gilead sold 1 billion euros just to the EU regulator in a couple of months later, just before the WHO had to come out and say remdesivir didn’t work (it didn’t lower mortality.)

    Now that Trump and remdesivir are out, we are about to find out the vaccine won’t be a silver bullet (10-30% of the population will still need treatment, right?). There are shy mentions in media about Ivermectin, an old molecule that has been repurposed since last May for Covid 19. Also some rumblings about strains/mutations, which are known by the medical community since last April.

    Here’s an appeal to authority, with a (somewhat stilted) summary of Didier Raoult’s latest video on Covid vaccines:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LyCruMMM5s4

    1) He does not have a binary thinking on vaccine (always good or always bad). It is an individual choice in consultation with a doctor.
    2) He will apply French law. He will not do media public vaccination or say what he chose to do.
    3) As to Covid vaccines, due to time pressure, the samples to evaluate the security or efficacity of the vaccine have not been obtained. (2:40)
    4) Whether people in the long term, or over millions of individuals it can have unforeseeable side effects cannot be scientically said today.
    5) In the short term, (few months), and a few thousand of individuals, it is not dangerous. That we know.
    6) Thus, the risk/benefit for people very exposed to Covid or very in danger of developing a bad case, can be worth it.
    7) What are the doubts?
    - For the new technology (mRNA) and adenovirus. If person is aged or immunocompromised it’s fine. We can’t say that for people who will keep the vaccine for decades.
    - Live attenuated vaccines are thought to be safe. However, we have to be aware that more poliomyelitis strains are due to vaccination than to nature. Because vaccination continued where polio had already been eradicated and that created strains.Vaccination strategies have to be re-evaluated in time. So, live-attenuated virus vaccines that can be safely omitted in a given population, should be. Again, inactivated virus vaccines are thought safe.
    8) Once we have a vaccine, we look at its safety: First, there could be small reactions (fever, local pain). But even with saline solution, you can get a “nocebo effect”. So for a vaccine it’s important to have a placebo group, to know that it is not a vaccine reaction but a reaction to the aggression of any injection.
    9) Second, there are the coincidences. When you vaccinate 30 million people, in the next 30 months, many things can occur: car accidents, esclerosis en plaque, etc. For Covid19, we have a lot of observation going on, we should know if accidents occur.
    10) Second factor we look at is efficacity. Some like Pfizer have 90%. The AZ around 70%, probably less for target populations (old, infirm).That’s so in the studies. In real life then people will still get infected with Covid. Vaccines are instrument to fight epidemics, diminish number of cases.
    11) For the vaccines based on the virus, it generates a response to the protein (spike).(min16:00). An unresolved question is whether the virus will generate mutations in that zone. Another is whether the Covid mutations that already exist will still be sensitive to that spike. But we will know soon because England has 70% of its variants with changes in the Spike. We will see what infections happen there.
    12) If infections happen, it will mean we have to amplify the strains or the coding sequences like we do for the grippe. You need to vaccinate against the flu every year.
    13) Another point that we don’t know is the length of the immunity. To begin with natural immunity is already medium, people get sick again in three months. We’ll see.
    14) I have given my point of view as doctor, as scientist and now as public servant. Order of vaccination in France and Europe: first, carers in old-age residences, the all older than 75, then medical staff of more than 65, then all older than 65, etc

    By the way, in another video, Raoult grumbles that even though medical regulators say the mRNA cannot penetrate into DNA, we have known for 32 years this is FALSE. But then, I’m not a doctor. I’ll have to choose which authority to believe, and hope I choose the one without conflict of interest.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @That Would Be Telling

    Who should get the vaccine first, according to Dr. Didier Raoult:

    first, carers in old-age residences, the all older than 75, then medical staff of more than 65, then all older than 65, etc

    That’s reasonable.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Dieter Kief

    He’s a public servant —very under-fire— and he is applying the vaccine as mandated by the French government. It is also done this way in other European countries.

  131. @Anon
    @Moral Stone

    In case of a so-so vaccine which seems quite possible, the true option is to do actual medicine: early testing and early treatment. In this instance, a home treatment that will take care of the disease in the early stage and avoid hospital overflow.

    There is quite a case being built in France —and other places— that HCQ plus azithromycin does work, and it was deliberately blocked in order to sell a competing molecule, remdesivir. Gilead’s share price nearly doubled when the Lancet shot down HCQ in May 2020.
    Gilead sold 1 billion euros just to the EU regulator in a couple of months later, just before the WHO had to come out and say remdesivir didn’t work (it didn’t lower mortality.)

    Now that Trump and remdesivir are out, we are about to find out the vaccine won’t be a silver bullet (10-30% of the population will still need treatment, right?). There are shy mentions in media about Ivermectin, an old molecule that has been repurposed since last May for Covid 19. Also some rumblings about strains/mutations, which are known by the medical community since last April.

    Here’s an appeal to authority, with a (somewhat stilted) summary of Didier Raoult’s latest video on Covid vaccines:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LyCruMMM5s4

    1) He does not have a binary thinking on vaccine (always good or always bad). It is an individual choice in consultation with a doctor.
    2) He will apply French law. He will not do media public vaccination or say what he chose to do.
    3) As to Covid vaccines, due to time pressure, the samples to evaluate the security or efficacity of the vaccine have not been obtained. (2:40)
    4) Whether people in the long term, or over millions of individuals it can have unforeseeable side effects cannot be scientically said today.
    5) In the short term, (few months), and a few thousand of individuals, it is not dangerous. That we know.
    6) Thus, the risk/benefit for people very exposed to Covid or very in danger of developing a bad case, can be worth it.
    7) What are the doubts?
    - For the new technology (mRNA) and adenovirus. If person is aged or immunocompromised it’s fine. We can’t say that for people who will keep the vaccine for decades.
    - Live attenuated vaccines are thought to be safe. However, we have to be aware that more poliomyelitis strains are due to vaccination than to nature. Because vaccination continued where polio had already been eradicated and that created strains.Vaccination strategies have to be re-evaluated in time. So, live-attenuated virus vaccines that can be safely omitted in a given population, should be. Again, inactivated virus vaccines are thought safe.
    8) Once we have a vaccine, we look at its safety: First, there could be small reactions (fever, local pain). But even with saline solution, you can get a “nocebo effect”. So for a vaccine it’s important to have a placebo group, to know that it is not a vaccine reaction but a reaction to the aggression of any injection.
    9) Second, there are the coincidences. When you vaccinate 30 million people, in the next 30 months, many things can occur: car accidents, esclerosis en plaque, etc. For Covid19, we have a lot of observation going on, we should know if accidents occur.
    10) Second factor we look at is efficacity. Some like Pfizer have 90%. The AZ around 70%, probably less for target populations (old, infirm).That’s so in the studies. In real life then people will still get infected with Covid. Vaccines are instrument to fight epidemics, diminish number of cases.
    11) For the vaccines based on the virus, it generates a response to the protein (spike).(min16:00). An unresolved question is whether the virus will generate mutations in that zone. Another is whether the Covid mutations that already exist will still be sensitive to that spike. But we will know soon because England has 70% of its variants with changes in the Spike. We will see what infections happen there.
    12) If infections happen, it will mean we have to amplify the strains or the coding sequences like we do for the grippe. You need to vaccinate against the flu every year.
    13) Another point that we don’t know is the length of the immunity. To begin with natural immunity is already medium, people get sick again in three months. We’ll see.
    14) I have given my point of view as doctor, as scientist and now as public servant. Order of vaccination in France and Europe: first, carers in old-age residences, the all older than 75, then medical staff of more than 65, then all older than 65, etc

    By the way, in another video, Raoult grumbles that even though medical regulators say the mRNA cannot penetrate into DNA, we have known for 32 years this is FALSE. But then, I’m not a doctor. I’ll have to choose which authority to believe, and hope I choose the one without conflict of interest.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @That Would Be Telling

    3) As to Covid vaccines, due to time pressure, the samples to evaluate the security or efficacity of the vaccine have not been obtained.

    Not to his satisfaction, the FDA’s for licensure, or the EU’s European Medicines Agency’s for beyond conditional marketing authorizations, but we do have substantial data, and are getting a heck of a lot more now that we’re vaccinating millions of people under emergency authorizations.

    4) Whether people in the long term, or over millions of individuals it can have unforeseeable side effects cannot be scientically said today.

    Well, yeah, and that’s always the case, for example you don’t likely find 1 in 100,000 bad side effects with normal sized trials where perhaps at most 20,000 people get the vaccine. But there is a claim the worst side effects happen within one and a half month, thus the FDA requirement for two months of safety data on one half of those who got the vaccine. There are no sure bets in an emergency like this.

    For the new technology (mRNA) and adenovirus. If person is aged or immunocompromised it’s fine. We can’t say that for people who will keep the vaccine for decades.

    Can you clarify this? I really don’t understand the last sentence.

    Live attenuated vaccines are thought to be safe. However, we have to be aware that more poliomyelitis strains are due to vaccination than to nature.

    They aren’t all that safe, see his previous comment on the aged or imunocompromised while noting neither mRNA or virus vector vaccines reproduce, and the polio example is based on its passing through a number of people until it regains its fangs. And, you know, no one is anywhere near an live attenuated virus vaccine for COVID-19, it’s not on this year’s menu, perhaps not next year’s.

    Again, inactivated virus vaccines are thought safe.

    Not true for RSV from the 1960s, and not true in prior experiments with SARS type coronaviruses which he has little excuse for not knowing about and pontificating on them. See my many postings on antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), and what had to be done to make COVID-19 vaccines safe from that. 9) on what happens when you deal with large populations is a point people should really burn in their minds.

    13) Another point that we don’t know is the length of the immunity. To begin with natural immunity is already medium, people get sick again in three months.

    CITATION NEEDED!!! I see why this guy gets so little respect.

    By the way, in another video, Raoult grumbles that even though medical regulators say the mRNA cannot penetrate into DNA, we have known for 32 years this is FALSE.

    Again, Citation Needed, because the only mechanism I know of us knowing is using retrovirus enzymes, and that doesn’t match any 32 year ago timeline. So he might be talking about something newer, although it should be remembered that when mRNA vaccines work, the body kills the cells that get hijacked dead.

    For that matter, here he abjectly fails, because live attenuated virus vaccines by definition at some point use mRNA to make virus proteins!

  132. @botazefa
    @That Would Be Telling


    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.
     
    Every single virus similar to covid-19 that hit humanity prior to the invention of vaccines. In past generations we were more accepting of the reality that the weakest in the herd would not make it through a tough winter. We've become so dissociated from the reality of human existence that we actually expect our lives to be utterly safe at all times. Isn't that absurd when you take the time to think about it? As is said, we're always only 2 meals and 24 hours from chaos.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.

    Every single virus similar to covid-19 that hit humanity prior to the invention of vaccines.

    Except for, you know, smallpox, polio, measles, mumps, the flu (special case since immunity is not long lasting through any method) and other causes of “the common cold,” including four coronaviruses, yellow fever, hepatitis A, norovirus and a bunch of other causes of gastroenteritis which can be quite fatal in austere situations, etc. etc. etc.

    Try again, or learn what herd immunity really means.

  133. @Dieter Kief
    @Anon

    Who should get the vaccine first, according to Dr. Didier Raoult:


    first, carers in old-age residences, the all older than 75, then medical staff of more than 65, then all older than 65, etc
     
    That's reasonable.

    Replies: @Anon

    He’s a public servant —very under-fire— and he is applying the vaccine as mandated by the French government. It is also done this way in other European countries.

  134. @That Would Be Telling
    @BB753



    I haven’t come across anyone who can cite an example where a disease that transmits like COVID-19 resulted in herd immunity without a vaccine, nor have I been able to find an example myself.
     
    Look no further than its first variant, SARS-CoV-1, in 2003-2004.
     
    SARS-CoV(-1) does not transmit like -2. Its transmission was driven by a relatively few super spreaders, and killed a lot more of those who got it, dead people of course not being at all efficient at respiratory transmission.

    Replies: @BB753

    I disagree. In 2003-2004, SARS CoV-1 reached Europe where they had a bad “flu year”, with more casualties than usual. But it didn’t make the news, except in Hong Kong, nor was it a “plandemic”, like SARS – CoV-2, which is being used for political, economical and even more sinister reasons.

  135. @That Would Be Telling
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless. This became apparent as soon as September
     
    Citation Needed, because this has not been at all apparent based on my readings of this subject. Natural immunity is reported to be strong, lasting way past what you could discern starting in September, although by definition we cannot say for sure how long it will last, but it looks good based on our general knowledge of adaptive immune system reactions to other viruses.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros

    Per https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02506-y dated Sept 4th, “Reports of possible reinfections have circulated for months, but the recent findings are the first to seemingly rule out the possibility that a second infection was merely a continuation of a first. To establish that the two infections in each person were separate events, the Hong Kong and Nevada teams each sequenced the viral genomes from the first and second infections. Both found enough differences to convince them that separate variants of the virus were at work. But, with only two examples, it is still unclear how frequently reinfections occur. And with 26 million known coronavirus infections worldwide so far, a few reinfections might not be cause to worry — yet, says virologist Thomas Geisbert of the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston. We need a lot more information on how prevalent this is, he says.”

    Yesterday’s BMJ counted 31 reinfections including 2 deaths. The fatality rate 2:31 being so much higher than the the usual 0.1%, I’d think reinfections are undercounted. Sure, they still seem few now. But they are not zero either.

    I had enough of the prevention, due to its lack of efficacy. I’d like to have a small-molecule treatment that I can take at home, something like “hydroxy”.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    Raoult protocol, in a little ziplock bag:
    HCQ, 200mg three times a day for ten days
    Azyt, 500 mg on day one, then 250 mg once a day for four days

    There is synergy between both. HCQ has antiviral, inmunoregulating properties and stops viral shedding after 4-5 days. Azyt has antiviral and some immunoregulating properties.

    Here's a site with the published papers of all Covid treatments under study: c19study.com

    The Raoult protocol is set out in the HCQ paper "Langier et al".

    , @That Would Be Telling
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    I’d think reinfections are undercounted. Sure, they still seem few now. But they are not zero either.
     
    A relative handful, 31 in that article, are fully expected. You think everyone's immune system works perfectly? (If so, why does anyone die from it in the first place?)

    In your following comment about flu vaccines you show you're too short for this ride, not even knowing the body can't mount long term immunity to it, forget about a vaccine. You're effectively a troll although I'm sure you don't mean to be one. You could fix this by a lot of study, but in the meanwhile you're best ignored.

  136. @Jack D
    @Dacian Julien Soros


    It appears that relapse is fairly likely, in which case vaccines are quite useless.
     
    Even assuming that your premise is true (it most likely isn't) then vaccines are not useless. All you have to do is keep giving the vaccine annually (or semi-annually or for however long the immunity lasts). This is what we do with flu and it's no problem.

    Right now we are having all sorts of teething problems in getting people their two doses. But eventually we'll have 1 dose vaccines (which by themselves cut the problem in half) and vaccines that are easier to handle and the creaky infrastructure for vaccine administration will get cranked up. They are even talking about possibly having a future combined flu and covid vaccine. Instead of getting your annual flu shot, you'll get your annual flu/covid shot. It's really no big deal.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Dacian Julien Soros

    Not all vaccines are truly effective. Per CDC, during the 2019-2020 season, influenza vaccine prevented 6 thousand deaths, but did not prevent other 22 thousand deaths in USA. i don’t think cutting down the deaths by less than a quarter counts as a big success. (The rate of vaccination was 52% at the level of whole USA, meaning there isn’t a lot of space for intensification.)

    Vaccines alone are likely not enough for the elderly or the fatties.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    Some vaccines are VERY effective. Flu is an unusual virus. Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range - far more than any flu vaccine.

    The beauty of herd immunity, if you can get it, is that the disease stops circulating so that even those for whom vaccines are less effective or not effective (or who refuse to be vaccinated) don't get the disease anyway.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  137. Anon[359] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dacian Julien Soros
    @That Would Be Telling

    Per https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02506-y dated Sept 4th, "Reports of possible reinfections have circulated for months, but the recent findings are the first to seemingly rule out the possibility that a second infection was merely a continuation of a first. To establish that the two infections in each person were separate events, the Hong Kong and Nevada teams each sequenced the viral genomes from the first and second infections. Both found enough differences to convince them that separate variants of the virus were at work. But, with only two examples, it is still unclear how frequently reinfections occur. And with 26 million known coronavirus infections worldwide so far, a few reinfections might not be cause to worry — yet, says virologist Thomas Geisbert of the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston. We need a lot more information on how prevalent this is, he says."

    Yesterday's BMJ counted 31 reinfections including 2 deaths. The fatality rate 2:31 being so much higher than the the usual 0.1%, I'd think reinfections are undercounted. Sure, they still seem few now. But they are not zero either.

    I had enough of the prevention, due to its lack of efficacy. I'd like to have a small-molecule treatment that I can take at home, something like "hydroxy".

    Replies: @Anon, @That Would Be Telling

    Raoult protocol, in a little ziplock bag:
    HCQ, 200mg three times a day for ten days
    Azyt, 500 mg on day one, then 250 mg once a day for four days

    There is synergy between both. HCQ has antiviral, inmunoregulating properties and stops viral shedding after 4-5 days. Azyt has antiviral and some immunoregulating properties.

    Here’s a site with the published papers of all Covid treatments under study: c19study.com

    The Raoult protocol is set out in the HCQ paper “Langier et al”.

  138. @Possumman
    @Achmed E. Newman

    What about going to the Slauson Cut-off---getting out and cutting off your slauson?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Heh, heh, heh!

    Heh, heh, heh!

    Ho, ho!

    [/McMahon]

  139. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Jack D

    Not all vaccines are truly effective. Per CDC, during the 2019-2020 season, influenza vaccine prevented 6 thousand deaths, but did not prevent other 22 thousand deaths in USA. i don't think cutting down the deaths by less than a quarter counts as a big success. (The rate of vaccination was 52% at the level of whole USA, meaning there isn't a lot of space for intensification.)

    Vaccines alone are likely not enough for the elderly or the fatties.

    Replies: @Jack D

    Some vaccines are VERY effective. Flu is an unusual virus. Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range – far more than any flu vaccine.

    The beauty of herd immunity, if you can get it, is that the disease stops circulating so that even those for whom vaccines are less effective or not effective (or who refuse to be vaccinated) don’t get the disease anyway.

    • Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Jack D

    Some vaccines were indeed amazing. But coronaviruses are not the sort of low-hanging fruit that smallpox was.

    , @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Jack D


    Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range – far more than any flu vaccine.
     
    Suspicious on its face. Am I the only one who remembers experts this time last year saying that coronaviruses have always presented more of a technical challenge to the vaccine maker than flu and other vaccines? Apparently they had it in them all along.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  140. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @That Would Be Telling

    Per https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02506-y dated Sept 4th, "Reports of possible reinfections have circulated for months, but the recent findings are the first to seemingly rule out the possibility that a second infection was merely a continuation of a first. To establish that the two infections in each person were separate events, the Hong Kong and Nevada teams each sequenced the viral genomes from the first and second infections. Both found enough differences to convince them that separate variants of the virus were at work. But, with only two examples, it is still unclear how frequently reinfections occur. And with 26 million known coronavirus infections worldwide so far, a few reinfections might not be cause to worry — yet, says virologist Thomas Geisbert of the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston. We need a lot more information on how prevalent this is, he says."

    Yesterday's BMJ counted 31 reinfections including 2 deaths. The fatality rate 2:31 being so much higher than the the usual 0.1%, I'd think reinfections are undercounted. Sure, they still seem few now. But they are not zero either.

    I had enough of the prevention, due to its lack of efficacy. I'd like to have a small-molecule treatment that I can take at home, something like "hydroxy".

    Replies: @Anon, @That Would Be Telling

    I’d think reinfections are undercounted. Sure, they still seem few now. But they are not zero either.

    A relative handful, 31 in that article, are fully expected. You think everyone’s immune system works perfectly? (If so, why does anyone die from it in the first place?)

    In your following comment about flu vaccines you show you’re too short for this ride, not even knowing the body can’t mount long term immunity to it, forget about a vaccine. You’re effectively a troll although I’m sure you don’t mean to be one. You could fix this by a lot of study, but in the meanwhile you’re best ignored.

  141. @Captain Tripps
    @vhrm

    Not that I needed any confirmation, but clearly, the faction that is (and has been, for a long while) in charge have completely jettisoned the old elite notion that "honesty is the best policy" for aspiring political leaders/subject matter experts. If it suits their needs, they'll mislead/lie at the drop of a hat.

    Replies: @Piglet

    If it suits their needs, they’ll mislead/lie at the drop of a hat.

    “We Americans are the ultimate innocents. We are forever desperate to believe that this time the government is telling us the truth.” Sydney Schanberg, deceased NY Times journalist and author of The Killing Fields

    “Look, if you think any American official is going to tell you the truth, then you’re stupid. Did you hear that? — stupid.” Arthur Sylvester, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs in the 1960s.
    More at:
    https://theintercept.com/2016/05/20/pentagon-official-once-told-morley-safer-that-reporters-who-believe-the-government-are-stupid/

  142. @Jack D
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    Some vaccines are VERY effective. Flu is an unusual virus. Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range - far more than any flu vaccine.

    The beauty of herd immunity, if you can get it, is that the disease stops circulating so that even those for whom vaccines are less effective or not effective (or who refuse to be vaccinated) don't get the disease anyway.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Some vaccines were indeed amazing. But coronaviruses are not the sort of low-hanging fruit that smallpox was.

  143. @Ghost of Bull Moose
    @Colin Wright

    The Israeli Muslims, Christians and Druze are getting the vaccine okay.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    The Israeli Muslims, Christians and Druze are getting the vaccine okay.

    This (a) is not true, and (b) overlooks the fact that whatever sophistries she might employ, Israel enjoys sovereignty over the West Bank and Gaza, and thereby assumes the legal obligations of that status.

    Could the Nazis say, ‘we don’t rule the Warsaw Ghetto. It’s not our problem if they’re not getting food’?

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Colin Wright

    I have an idea. We'll dress you up in an Israeli Army uniform and you'll hand carry a cooler full of vaccine over the border to Gaza so that Israel can fulfill its obligation to supply its sworn enemy with vaccines at no cost. I'm sure the Gazans would warmly welcome you and that if the situation was reverse the Gazans would be supplying Israel with vaccines.

    In fact, many West Bankers and even Gazans receive medical treatment in Israeli hospitals. I don't think that the Germans did that for the Jews in the Warsaw Ghetto.

    Replies: @Polistra

  144. @Art Deco
    @Colin Wright

    The Israelis may have to grit their teeth and give vaccine to the Palestinians as well.

    Israel's Arab citizens are receiving the vaccine. The West Bank and Gaza are the responsibility of the brigands who run them, along with the UNRWA 70-years-of-doles squad.

    Replies: @Colin Wright

    ‘Israel’s Arab citizens are receiving the vaccine. The West Bank and Gaza are the responsibility of the brigands who run them, along with the UNRWA 70-years-of-doles squad.’

    Bullshit — on all three points, and you know it.

    You’re neither stupid nor ignorant. Therefore you’re dishonest.

    …Offense.

    • Replies: @Paperback Writer
    @Colin Wright

    Don't bother me with facts, my mind is made up.


    While vaccinating its own Arab citizens and Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem, Israel says it is not responsible for inoculating the Palestinians. Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said Israel will consider helping, once it takes care of its own citizens.

     

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/who-raises-concerns-about-vaccine-inequity-between-israel-and-palestinians/
  145. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Steve Sailer

    That's weird. Isn't SF (a) foggy, (b) filthy and disease-ridden, with (c) enormous numbers of foreign nationals coming and going and (d) an inept city government?

    Of course, it's also home to our tech overlords. They probably already gave all their workers the top-secret Ft. Dettrick vaccine back in December 2019

    Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome

    Isn’t SF (a) foggy

    24 hr humidity kills virus’s? Plus daily rain wipes everything down.

  146. @Colin Wright
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    The Israeli Muslims, Christians and Druze are getting the vaccine okay.

    This (a) is not true, and (b) overlooks the fact that whatever sophistries she might employ, Israel enjoys sovereignty over the West Bank and Gaza, and thereby assumes the legal obligations of that status.

    Could the Nazis say, 'we don't rule the Warsaw Ghetto. It's not our problem if they're not getting food'?

    Replies: @Jack D

    I have an idea. We’ll dress you up in an Israeli Army uniform and you’ll hand carry a cooler full of vaccine over the border to Gaza so that Israel can fulfill its obligation to supply its sworn enemy with vaccines at no cost. I’m sure the Gazans would warmly welcome you and that if the situation was reverse the Gazans would be supplying Israel with vaccines.

    In fact, many West Bankers and even Gazans receive medical treatment in Israeli hospitals. I don’t think that the Germans did that for the Jews in the Warsaw Ghetto.

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @Jack D

    Exactly. People 'we' don't like should get Covid because Holocaust.

    Everything is about Holocaust. Everything.

  147. @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    I suppose Plan B is just “flattening the curve”.

    Whatever happened to that, by the way? Did the curve get flattened? It seems like that was Plan A initially, but then it somehow morphed into “Stopping the spread”.
     
    Not sure, but all plans should always have had the curve in mind, because if your fail at that like the New York state part of the NYC metro early on (although there are a lot of moving parts to that, including Cuomo's Final Solution to the Medicaid Problem), or Southern California as of late, your death rates go way up because you can't provide adequate treatment to all patients who need hospital care, including "normal," non-COVID-19 ones.

    And see how the very highest priority to vaccinate was front line hospital workers, if you have many fewer of those out sick with COVID-19, you correspondingly boost your hospital capacity, the hard limit of which is well trained workers, not equipment or beds, isolation or ICU (so is reported with specifics by for example "Aesop" in non-LA Southern California, and I have been reporting locally in my part of flyover country).

    By the way, Ioannadis has a new study out which, if I understand it correctly (big “if”)
     
    If you're not serious expert in the topic, anything with his name on it should get a hard pass, instead wait for it to be Fisked.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Final Solution to the Medicaid Problem

    That’s a great line. NY anons & Cuomo’s enemies should start hammering that one – memes with Cuomo as Hitler, Cuomo photoshopped into Schindler’s List, etc

    the very highest priority to vaccinate was front line hospital workers, if you have many fewer of those out sick with COVID-19, you correspondingly boost your hospital capacity

    I wonder if it’d make sense to space out such vaccinations: you vaccinate every hospital worker at once, how many of them have a bad reaction to the vaccine and take a few days off… Probably nothing to worry about

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Thanks; I'm surprised how long it took me to come up with it. Also bring in the less well known Aktion T4 if you can, "refers to mass murder by involuntary euthanasia in Nazi Germany.... Certain German physicians were authorized to select patients "deemed incurably sick, after most critical medical examination" and then administer to them a "mercy death" (Gnadentod)."

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  148. @Ganderson
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    My niece is a world class athlete- she called asking our advice about whether she should expose herself to the ‘Rona. I said yes, my wife said no. ( women got the men like a puppet show...)

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?

    Replies: @Jack D, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    I’d be on the fence about that. Much of the reported strange lingering effects could be overblown – media nonsense, or else coincidental comorbidities in the enormous sea of COVID cases – but there’s still a chance that the scientists who developed this in the underground lab in the hollowed-out Chinese volcano have seeded it with all kinds of medical landmines and strange AIDS proteins

  149. @Jack D
    @Ganderson


    she called asking our advice about whether she should expose herself to the ‘Rona.
     
    What kind of stupid question is that? Even if you are opposed to the vaccine, even if you think that covid is just the flu, why would you intentionally expose yourself to a disease? Maybe you'll get it eventually anyway, but why be in a rush to get sick?

    Are you and your wife physicians? Why is she discussing this with you instead of with her doctor?

    No reason to generally immunize anyone under what, 50 or 60?
     
    There are plenty of reasons to do so. First of all, the risk of death doesn't really drop to almost zero until you get below 30. Plenty of dead in their 40s and 50s. 2nd, even if you don't die from Covid it can have lingering unpleasant side effects such as long term loss of taste and smell even in younger people. Not to mention loss of lung capacity - very important to athletes. Whatever side effects have been noted from the vaccine have so far been extremely short term - a few days and after that you go back to 100% normal. Lastly, getting vaccinated (probably) keeps you from spreading Covid to your family members and other contacts, some of whom are older and at high risk. Wouldn't your niece feel guilty if she gave Covid to grandma and it killed her?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    What kind of stupid question is that? Even if you are opposed to the vaccine, even if you think that covid is just the flu, why would you intentionally expose yourself to a disease? Maybe you’ll get it eventually anyway, but why be in a rush to get sick?

    Obviously, to get immunity. This applies even if you don’t think it’s just the flu: the world’s doctors have considerably more experience with the symptoms of the virus than they do with the side effects of the vaccine. For young healthy people, the risk might be greater for the latter.

    Wouldn’t your niece feel guilty if she gave Covid to grandma and it killed her?

    The lack of critical thinking people are evincing around the virus is really quite something. A person intentionally infecting themself would obviously be quarantining for two weeks or more afterwards, so Grandma should be safe.

    And before you start, no, I’m not advocating this, just entertaining it.

  150. @Jack D
    @Colin Wright

    I have an idea. We'll dress you up in an Israeli Army uniform and you'll hand carry a cooler full of vaccine over the border to Gaza so that Israel can fulfill its obligation to supply its sworn enemy with vaccines at no cost. I'm sure the Gazans would warmly welcome you and that if the situation was reverse the Gazans would be supplying Israel with vaccines.

    In fact, many West Bankers and even Gazans receive medical treatment in Israeli hospitals. I don't think that the Germans did that for the Jews in the Warsaw Ghetto.

    Replies: @Polistra

    Exactly. People ‘we’ don’t like should get Covid because Holocaust.

    Everything is about Holocaust. Everything.

  151. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling


    Final Solution to the Medicaid Problem
     
    That's a great line. NY anons & Cuomo's enemies should start hammering that one - memes with Cuomo as Hitler, Cuomo photoshopped into Schindler's List, etc

    the very highest priority to vaccinate was front line hospital workers, if you have many fewer of those out sick with COVID-19, you correspondingly boost your hospital capacity
     
    I wonder if it'd make sense to space out such vaccinations: you vaccinate every hospital worker at once, how many of them have a bad reaction to the vaccine and take a few days off... Probably nothing to worry about

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks; I’m surprised how long it took me to come up with it. Also bring in the less well known Aktion T4 if you can, “refers to mass murder by involuntary euthanasia in Nazi Germany…. Certain German physicians were authorized to select patients “deemed incurably sick, after most critical medical examination” and then administer to them a “mercy death” (Gnadentod).”

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling

    Nah, stick to the first one. If it's "less well known" then it won't have any memetic impact.

  152. @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Thanks; I'm surprised how long it took me to come up with it. Also bring in the less well known Aktion T4 if you can, "refers to mass murder by involuntary euthanasia in Nazi Germany.... Certain German physicians were authorized to select patients "deemed incurably sick, after most critical medical examination" and then administer to them a "mercy death" (Gnadentod)."

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Nah, stick to the first one. If it’s “less well known” then it won’t have any memetic impact.

  153. @Jack D
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    Some vaccines are VERY effective. Flu is an unusual virus. Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range - far more than any flu vaccine.

    The beauty of herd immunity, if you can get it, is that the disease stops circulating so that even those for whom vaccines are less effective or not effective (or who refuse to be vaccinated) don't get the disease anyway.

    Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros, @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range – far more than any flu vaccine.

    Suspicious on its face. Am I the only one who remembers experts this time last year saying that coronaviruses have always presented more of a technical challenge to the vaccine maker than flu and other vaccines? Apparently they had it in them all along.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account



    Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range – far more than any flu vaccine.
     
    Suspicious on its face. Am I the only one who remembers experts this time last year saying that coronaviruses have always presented more of a technical challenge to the vaccine maker than flu and other vaccines? Apparently they had it in them all along.
     
    Not suspicious, because there are two major differences between "passive" flu vaccines and every other commonly taken "active" vaccine I've looked at against a virus. Of course, the experts, especially as selected and filtered by the MSM, were following or were fit into a ORANGE MAN BAD narrative, everything starts from a narrative and facts and lies are then used to support it.

    And to the extent they weren't filtered or lying, they were grossly ignorant of all the work that had been put into vaccines against SARS like vaccines, which allows Moderna to develop their candidate literally over a weekend using their advanced technology (most advanced in the world??). Or see Oxford, which had previously used their viral vector vaccine platform for a MERS in a Phase I trial which allowed them to skip for COVID-19 the step of figuring out which of three dosages should be used.

    So first of all they're different type vaccines, "passive" as in this case protein plus adjuvant, vs. "active," hijack some cells and make them simulate a real infection, the latter can produce much better efficacy because of how closely it's simulating nature and thus producing a full spectrum adaptive immune system response.

    But the really big ringer is that of the diseases we try to vaccinate against, flu is unique in that what the body latches onto to attack, be it a natural infection or vaccine, is not "conserved." That is, these parts of viral proteins can significantly chance and "the virus will still virus." So many months in advance, the usual experts get together and make their best guesses as to which will be the dominate strains circulating in that hemisphere's flu season. That we've got two hemispheres helps, but obviously they often going to guess incorrectly, especially since new strains can pop up afterwords, see the 2009 swine flu.

    So for COVID-19, we sincerely hope at least one of the bits, "epitopes" of the spike protein our bodies select to attack is conserved, and this is a realistic hope given what all it does. For an enzyme analogy, imagine a lock into which a key must fit more or less precisely.

    Barring that, we have to hope natural immunity which also attacks the nucleocapsid protein will help people. It's not as desirable a vaccine target for reasons I haven't researched yet, but it's hidden behind the virus's envelope, a bit of the membrane stolen from the cell it budded off of, so something sticking outside that envelope will statistically get hit much earlier, hopefully before it hijacks a cell.

    Otherwise we might need one or more rounds of vaccines until COVID-19 runs out of tricks and we can have "eternal" vaccines, and one thing that helps is that unique to RNA viruses coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism. And we have many "eternal" and very high efficacy vaccines against RNA viruses, but they've had centuries at the very least to adapt to humans.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

  154. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @Jack D


    Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range – far more than any flu vaccine.
     
    Suspicious on its face. Am I the only one who remembers experts this time last year saying that coronaviruses have always presented more of a technical challenge to the vaccine maker than flu and other vaccines? Apparently they had it in them all along.

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range – far more than any flu vaccine.

    Suspicious on its face. Am I the only one who remembers experts this time last year saying that coronaviruses have always presented more of a technical challenge to the vaccine maker than flu and other vaccines? Apparently they had it in them all along.

    Not suspicious, because there are two major differences between “passive” flu vaccines and every other commonly taken “active” vaccine I’ve looked at against a virus. Of course, the experts, especially as selected and filtered by the MSM, were following or were fit into a ORANGE MAN BAD narrative, everything starts from a narrative and facts and lies are then used to support it.

    And to the extent they weren’t filtered or lying, they were grossly ignorant of all the work that had been put into vaccines against SARS like vaccines, which allows Moderna to develop their candidate literally over a weekend using their advanced technology (most advanced in the world??). Or see Oxford, which had previously used their viral vector vaccine platform for a MERS in a Phase I trial which allowed them to skip for COVID-19 the step of figuring out which of three dosages should be used.

    So first of all they’re different type vaccines, “passive” as in this case protein plus adjuvant, vs. “active,” hijack some cells and make them simulate a real infection, the latter can produce much better efficacy because of how closely it’s simulating nature and thus producing a full spectrum adaptive immune system response.

    But the really big ringer is that of the diseases we try to vaccinate against, flu is unique in that what the body latches onto to attack, be it a natural infection or vaccine, is not “conserved.” That is, these parts of viral proteins can significantly chance and “the virus will still virus.” So many months in advance, the usual experts get together and make their best guesses as to which will be the dominate strains circulating in that hemisphere’s flu season. That we’ve got two hemispheres helps, but obviously they often going to guess incorrectly, especially since new strains can pop up afterwords, see the 2009 swine flu.

    So for COVID-19, we sincerely hope at least one of the bits, “epitopes” of the spike protein our bodies select to attack is conserved, and this is a realistic hope given what all it does. For an enzyme analogy, imagine a lock into which a key must fit more or less precisely.

    Barring that, we have to hope natural immunity which also attacks the nucleocapsid protein will help people. It’s not as desirable a vaccine target for reasons I haven’t researched yet, but it’s hidden behind the virus’s envelope, a bit of the membrane stolen from the cell it budded off of, so something sticking outside that envelope will statistically get hit much earlier, hopefully before it hijacks a cell.

    Otherwise we might need one or more rounds of vaccines until COVID-19 runs out of tricks and we can have “eternal” vaccines, and one thing that helps is that unique to RNA viruses coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism. And we have many “eternal” and very high efficacy vaccines against RNA viruses, but they’ve had centuries at the very least to adapt to humans.

    • Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling

    ...so did we already have coronavirus vaccines or not?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

  155. @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account



    Pfizer and Moderna report effectiveness in the 95% range – far more than any flu vaccine.
     
    Suspicious on its face. Am I the only one who remembers experts this time last year saying that coronaviruses have always presented more of a technical challenge to the vaccine maker than flu and other vaccines? Apparently they had it in them all along.
     
    Not suspicious, because there are two major differences between "passive" flu vaccines and every other commonly taken "active" vaccine I've looked at against a virus. Of course, the experts, especially as selected and filtered by the MSM, were following or were fit into a ORANGE MAN BAD narrative, everything starts from a narrative and facts and lies are then used to support it.

    And to the extent they weren't filtered or lying, they were grossly ignorant of all the work that had been put into vaccines against SARS like vaccines, which allows Moderna to develop their candidate literally over a weekend using their advanced technology (most advanced in the world??). Or see Oxford, which had previously used their viral vector vaccine platform for a MERS in a Phase I trial which allowed them to skip for COVID-19 the step of figuring out which of three dosages should be used.

    So first of all they're different type vaccines, "passive" as in this case protein plus adjuvant, vs. "active," hijack some cells and make them simulate a real infection, the latter can produce much better efficacy because of how closely it's simulating nature and thus producing a full spectrum adaptive immune system response.

    But the really big ringer is that of the diseases we try to vaccinate against, flu is unique in that what the body latches onto to attack, be it a natural infection or vaccine, is not "conserved." That is, these parts of viral proteins can significantly chance and "the virus will still virus." So many months in advance, the usual experts get together and make their best guesses as to which will be the dominate strains circulating in that hemisphere's flu season. That we've got two hemispheres helps, but obviously they often going to guess incorrectly, especially since new strains can pop up afterwords, see the 2009 swine flu.

    So for COVID-19, we sincerely hope at least one of the bits, "epitopes" of the spike protein our bodies select to attack is conserved, and this is a realistic hope given what all it does. For an enzyme analogy, imagine a lock into which a key must fit more or less precisely.

    Barring that, we have to hope natural immunity which also attacks the nucleocapsid protein will help people. It's not as desirable a vaccine target for reasons I haven't researched yet, but it's hidden behind the virus's envelope, a bit of the membrane stolen from the cell it budded off of, so something sticking outside that envelope will statistically get hit much earlier, hopefully before it hijacks a cell.

    Otherwise we might need one or more rounds of vaccines until COVID-19 runs out of tricks and we can have "eternal" vaccines, and one thing that helps is that unique to RNA viruses coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism. And we have many "eternal" and very high efficacy vaccines against RNA viruses, but they've had centuries at the very least to adapt to humans.

    Replies: @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    …so did we already have coronavirus vaccines or not?

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account


    …so did we already have coronavirus vaccines or not?
     
    Yes for candidate vaccines. The Oxford MERS vaccine being against MERS-CoV, which is still with us since it has a camel reservoir. Thus a Phase I trial done in Saudi Arabia, 24 subjects, presumably nailed the dosing as I mentioned. There are no results listed for it, but since it started for real on December 17th, 2019 COVID-19 would obviously prompt Oxford to not go to the effort of publishing anything and move straight to creating a version against SARS-CoV-2 and do a single dose level early clinical trial.

    Thus a blended Phase I/II trial with about 500 subjects getting the COVID-19 vaccine, then the largest test of their viral vector platform, previous ones had no more than 40 subjects for a whole host of pathogens (use ChAdOx1 as a search term to find them; decoding that from what I know, Ch = chimp, that should be OK, Ad = adenovirus, there are lots of human ones most of us have already gotten, thus going for a chimp one, Ox = Oxford). Go to the bottom of these links to find any publications arising from or related to them.

    You prompted me to spend some more quality time with ClinicalTrials.gov, my go-to source since for example the WHO's site got overloaded and the search function turned off, and here's a German MERS one that ran from 2017 to early-mid 2019 so lots of publications from it. Uses a virus vector I hadn't heard of, have no idea if they're trying their hand at a COVID-19 vaccine, couldn't find anything on the site, but it's been widely tried against a bunch of pathogens. One of those trials also used a different numbered version of the Oxford platform.

    And two trials of a fancy vaccine implanted into cells with a machine that does "electroporation," uses electricity to make pores in cell membranes, to get a DNA plasmid (small ring of DNA) inside them. One started in 2016 resulting in a paper, a second started in 2018 in South Korea which had a bad 2015 MERS outbreak, and probably overtaken by COVID-19.

    So three specific MERS and thus SARS like coronavirus vaccine candidates we know got as far as Phase I trials before SARS-CoV-2 was generally known to be stalking the earth.

  156. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account
    @That Would Be Telling

    ...so did we already have coronavirus vaccines or not?

    Replies: @That Would Be Telling

    …so did we already have coronavirus vaccines or not?

    Yes for candidate vaccines. The Oxford MERS vaccine being against MERS-CoV, which is still with us since it has a camel reservoir. Thus a Phase I trial done in Saudi Arabia, 24 subjects, presumably nailed the dosing as I mentioned. There are no results listed for it, but since it started for real on December 17th, 2019 COVID-19 would obviously prompt Oxford to not go to the effort of publishing anything and move straight to creating a version against SARS-CoV-2 and do a single dose level early clinical trial.

    Thus a blended Phase I/II trial with about 500 subjects getting the COVID-19 vaccine, then the largest test of their viral vector platform, previous ones had no more than 40 subjects for a whole host of pathogens (use ChAdOx1 as a search term to find them; decoding that from what I know, Ch = chimp, that should be OK, Ad = adenovirus, there are lots of human ones most of us have already gotten, thus going for a chimp one, Ox = Oxford). Go to the bottom of these links to find any publications arising from or related to them.

    You prompted me to spend some more quality time with ClinicalTrials.gov, my go-to source since for example the WHO’s site got overloaded and the search function turned off, and here’s a German MERS one that ran from 2017 to early-mid 2019 so lots of publications from it. Uses a virus vector I hadn’t heard of, have no idea if they’re trying their hand at a COVID-19 vaccine, couldn’t find anything on the site, but it’s been widely tried against a bunch of pathogens. One of those trials also used a different numbered version of the Oxford platform.

    And two trials of a fancy vaccine implanted into cells with a machine that does “electroporation,” uses electricity to make pores in cell membranes, to get a DNA plasmid (small ring of DNA) inside them. One started in 2016 resulting in a paper, a second started in 2018 in South Korea which had a bad 2015 MERS outbreak, and probably overtaken by COVID-19.

    So three specific MERS and thus SARS like coronavirus vaccine candidates we know got as far as Phase I trials before SARS-CoV-2 was generally known to be stalking the earth.

  157. @Colin Wright
    @Art Deco

    'Israel’s Arab citizens are receiving the vaccine. The West Bank and Gaza are the responsibility of the brigands who run them, along with the UNRWA 70-years-of-doles squad.'

    Bullshit -- on all three points, and you know it.

    You're neither stupid nor ignorant. Therefore you're dishonest.

    ...Offense.

    Replies: @Paperback Writer

    Don’t bother me with facts, my mind is made up.

    While vaccinating its own Arab citizens and Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem, Israel says it is not responsible for inoculating the Palestinians. Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said Israel will consider helping, once it takes care of its own citizens.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/who-raises-concerns-about-vaccine-inequity-between-israel-and-palestinians/

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