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Italians Who Died of CV Tended to Lose About 10 Years Off Life Expectancy
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From The Economist:

Would most covid-19 victims have died soon, without the virus?
A new study suggests not

May 2nd 2020 edition

… However, a study by researchers from a group of Scottish universities has attempted to do so. They found that the years of life lost (ylls) for the average Briton or Italian who passed away was probably around 11, meaning that few of covid-19’s victims would have died soon otherwise.

… The authors excluded the 1% of victims under 50.

I don’t see why.

Then they calculated how much longer these cohorts would normally survive. Life expectancies for old people are surprisingly high, even when they have underlying conditions, because many of the unhealthiest have already passed away. For example, an average Italian 80-year-old will reach 90. The ylls from this method were 11.5 for Italian men and 10.9 for women.

Then the authors accounted for other illnesses the victims had, in case they were unusually frail for their age. For 710 Italians, they could see how many had a specific long-term condition, such as hypertension or cancer….

Strikingly, the study shows that in this hybrid European model, people killed by covid-19 had only slightly higher rates of underlying illness than everyone else their age. When the authors adjusted for pre-existing conditions and then simulated deaths using normal Italian life expectancies, the ylls dropped just a little, to 11.1 for men and 10.2 for women. (They were slightly lower for Britons.) Fully 20% of the dead were reasonably healthy people in their 50s and 60s, who were expected to live for another 25 years on average. …

Eliminating the 1% of deaths under 50 probably lowered the estimate by about 0.4 years.

The researchers warn that their data exclude people who died in care homes, who might have been especially sickly. Nor can they account for the severity of underlying illnesses. For example, covid-19 victims might have had particularly acute lung or heart conditions. More complete data could produce a lower estimate of ylls.

A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws. But, it turns out, that having zero underlying conditions doesn’t add much to your life expectancy relative to having one. For example, 50-something men who died of CV with zero long-term conditions had an expected additional life span of 35.81 years, while those who died with 1 LTC lost an expected 35.03, while those with 5 LTCs lost 19.39.

On the other hand, these estimates are for just Years of Life Lost, not for Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost. From Wikipedia:

To determine QALYs, one multiplies the utility value associated with a given state of health by the years lived in that state. A year of life lived in perfect health is worth 1 QALY (1 year of life × 1 Utility value). A year of life lived in a state of less than perfect health is worth less than 1 QALY; for example, 1 year of life lived in a situation with utility 0.5 (e.g. bedridden, 1 year × 0.5 Utility) is assigned 0.5 QALYs. Similarly, half a year lived in perfect health is equivalent to 0.5 QALYs (0.5 years × 1 Utility). Death is assigned a value of 0 QALYs, and in some circumstances it is possible to accrue negative QALYs to reflect health states deemed “worse than dead.”[3]

Somebody should hurry up and estimate QALY lost. But I can see why we don’t have that number yet: a big chunk of QALY losses would be among coronavirus survivors whose long term health was damaged. Unfortunately, after a few months, we are still pretty clueless about the long-term effects on survivors.

On the other hand, what were people who died of CV living like before they got it. How close were their years to a perfect 1.0?

By the way, my suspicion is that one reason Italian fatalities skewed so old were that younger Northern Italians tend to be highly healthy compared to Americans.

Here’s the academics’ preprint:

COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]
Peter Hanlon , Fergus Chadwick , Anoop Shah , Rachael Wood ,
Jon Minton , Gerry McCartney , Colin Fischbacher , Frances S. Mair ,
Dirk Husmeier , Jason Matthiopoulos , David A. McAllister1,3

Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Most estimates have focused on numbers of deaths, with little direct quantification of years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some have speculated that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs.

Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count.

Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).

Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.

 
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  1. I was told there would be no math.

    • LOL: TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @SafeNow
    “I was told there would be no math.”

    LOL.

    It’s better NOT to be a math guy. I was the captain of the Math Team in high school. I was told this would be a chick magnet. They were wrong.
  2. I don’t know how you can statistically analyze this event when so much of the data is bullfeces.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
    • Replies: @Pincher Martin
    I don't know how anyone could make this sort of generalization without pushing bullfeces of their own.
    , @Anonymous (n)
    The data we have is far from perfect, but it's still a lot stronger than the mere assertions you and the rest of the just a flu trolls pull out of your arse. So there is that.
    , @Jim Bob Lassiter
    Considering that the CDC just cut (in one fell swoop) in half its own reported number of US deaths unequivocally attributable to Covid-19, there's no justification to be subjecting newrouter to a beat down for his observation.
  3. I think that after all the noise is filtered out, the Covid-19 rumpus is most fruitfully viewed as a global, third-millennium version of the Salem witch hysteria.

    Happily, that means we can end the nonsense just as easily as our predecessors could. Unhappily, it doesn’t follow that we can do the same with the global depression we’ve rather gratuitously launched.

    • Agree: Alice
    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    You're an ass. I know 3 people who suffered with it. It was nasty. They survived. By the hardest. And they weren't in nursing homes and they have many more years of productive, enjoyable life left. If the virus has done any permanent damage that is, and this is a frightening possibility. Did it ever occur to you that you might have or have had it, you didn't have many symptoms, but it damaged your internal organs, which you won't find out for a year or so.

    Of course not. The answer to the question of what you "think" is "not much."
    , @Hail

    Covid-19...is most fruitfully viewed as a global, third-millennium version of the Salem witch hysteria.
     
    • AGREE: Hail.
  4. Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female. See :

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care.

    That would mean the average person entering a nursing home would have passed away after a little over a year. Wouldn’t that mean then that if the coronavirus knocks them off they have only lost a little over a year of life?

    • Agree: Bruno, Hippopotamusdrome
    • Replies: @Peter Frost
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    Total deaths - 37,308

    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities - 6,723

    Percentage - 18%

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Note: data incomplete because of lag times for reporting and coding of confirmed deaths

    , @The Anti-Gnostic
    They die of influenza, pneumal infections, strokes etc. Depressed residents with lots of ailments sometimes just stop eating. Nursing homes are where people go to spend their remaining months. They are not happy places. Isolation due to quarantine regulations will probably mean more depressed, morbid residents.
    , @Polynikes

    The researchers warn that their data exclude people who died in care homes, who might have been especially sickly. Nor can they account for the severity of underlying illnesses. For example, covid-19 victims might have had particularly acute lung or heart conditions. More complete data could produce a lower estimate of ylls.
     
    Yea... seems like that might have been pertinent data to include. It would’ve shifted the data quite a bit.

    It would be interesting to see a full accounting compared to other diseases that say... affect the respiratory system, heavily target the old and are wide spread. Maybe something like the flu?
    , @prosa123
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female.

    Those averages are means, and are higher than the 4-month median because nursing homes often contain a small number of patients, often somewhat younger people with severe physical disabilities, who stay there for many years.
    , @Lot
    “Nursing home” has a specific meaning of the highest level of residential senior care, and it costs around $100,000 per year.

    That 1 year life expectancy applies to it, while covid death stats group all levels of senior assisted living together.
    , @Hail
    If 14 months is the average duration of stay at a nursing home between intake and death, we might also assume the coronavirus-positive deaths are at least at the median (7 months' life expectancy) and probably closer to the end (4 months?). A very large portion of the deaths have <0.5 years left.

    To add up to the statement "a coronavirus death loses 11 years of life," the other 50% of deaths need to average 21.5 years let. Subtracting the nursing home people, maybe the average age of a corona-positive death is 75...drawn mainly from the least healthy quartile thereof.

    This means that this bogus-seeming study needs an unhealthy 75-year-old with underlying conditions to live to 96 to make their numbers work.

    , @slumber_j
    Here in Connecticut, the age breakdown of Covid deaths as of Mayday--the most recent set the state has published--looks like this:

    Age Deaths % of Total
    >=80 1357 58%
    70-79 521 22%
    60-69 300 13%
    50-59 102 4%
    40-49 32 1%
    30-39 18 1%
    20-29 3 0%
    1 0%
    1 0%
    2335

    I guess I'll take their word for it that the average Italian 80-year-old makes it to 90, although that certainly wouldn't have been my guess. Nevertheless, that number must drop pretty sharply as you get through the 80s: it simply cannot be the case that a lot of 89-year-olds make it to 99. Maybe either Italy or Connecticut is weird, but I have a hard time seeing how the math works out here.

    (Sorry: I can't figure out how to format that table any better. But you get the idea.)

  5. Lot says:

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60

    Now that the culpability of the Chinese Communist Party has been established, what should be the response?

    I like 50% tariffs and cancelling the gov bonds they own.

    What’s the word for the exact opposite of contrition?

    • Agree: trelane
    • Replies: @anonymous
    Pompeo is leading the effort to pin blame on China and it feels like he is making stuff up on the spot.

    At one point, the secretary of state appeared confused over whether he was claiming the Sars-CoV-2 virus (which causes the Covid-19 disease) was deliberately engineered or escaped as the result of a lab accident.

    “Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point,” he said.

    But when he was reminded that US intelligence had issued a formal statement noting the opposite – that the scientific consensus was that the virus was not manmade or genetically modified – Pompeo replied: “That’s right. I agree with that.”
     
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/mike-pompeo-donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-laboratory
  6. Xens says:

    This is a huge overestimate. 50% of the deaths in Europe are coming from nursing homes, where median life expectancy is 4 months in normal times. Even among >80-year-olds in the general population, only a small fraction are sick enough to live in nursing homes. It seems then, that a large proportion of coronavirus mortality is the weakest and sickest in their relative age cohorts. I suspect that this naive “10 years each” is an order of magnitude or so too large. This 10 years seems to be the number that I come up with when I just grossly apply actuarial tables to the known age distribution of coronavirus fatalities, a bad approach. A study that took into account the actual health conditions of specific individuals would find a much lower number.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    It seems then, that a large proportion of coronavirus mortality is the weakest and sickest in their relative age cohorts.
     
    It stands to reason that it would be true to at least some extent (I'm not sure it is really a full order of magnitude, but it's gotta be more that zero), but this study makes the exact opposite assumption - that Wuhan Virus kills randomly and that those who the disease kills had the exact same life expectancy as everyone else in their age group. So either the authors are innumerate or they are trying to pull a fast one on us. The results of their "study" are trivial - the average 80 year old has 10 years of life left, CV killed some 80 year olds, therefore it trimmed 10 years off their lives.

    In reality, all 80 year olds don't live exactly 10 years. Some of them will die tomorrow, some will die 20 years from now and it all averages out to 10 years. The question is whether CV kills more of the former group than the latter? They didn't really make any effort to figure this out.

    I suspect that they had a strong agenda. As the article alludes to , YLL's are used for various public health decisions so if you can come up with a really high # for YLLs then you can justify more draconian/expensive measures. The # that they came up with is the highest possible # that could be even minimally justified.

    It's really amazing to me how the response to Wuhan Virus has become one more area where the Left/Right divide is apparent. These authors are just signalling that they are on the Left.

  7. One thing we do know is that a substantial percentage of the deaths in the US have been among nursing home patients. In hard-hit New Jersey, it’s nearly 40%. One other thing we know full well is that even without the virus, nursing home patients have very short life expectancies, I’ve read that the median can be as little as four months.

  8. At age 110 and thereafter your chance of living another year is ~50-50. That’s why nobody ever lives beyond age 120: There are 10 stops between 110 and 120 making it almost impossible to survive past age 120.

    Count yourself lucky to have lived and died in a span of 85 years. Shorter than this and you will have been deprived of logevity: longer than this and you will have suffered in your old age.

  9. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    When I used to fly from NYC to LA a lot, the airline I usually flew decided to make me get a connecting flight in St. Louis. A number of times I had to sit in the terminal for a couple of hours waiting for my connection. After watching hundreds of people walk by, I noticed they weren’t the same kind of people I saw at Newark or LAX airport. Every single person who walked by me was obese.

    I mentioned it to a friend, and she didn’t believe me, until she got stuck getting a connecting flight in St. Louis. She called me soon after and said, “I thought you were just being an asshole when you said everyone in the St. Louis airport was fat. But you were right! I couldn’t believe my eyes! Everybody was fat! Everybody!”

    As it has been stated that if you’re obese, the Wuhan virus has a special brand of hell for you, since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number. It’ll be interesting how the good folks of St. Louis fare.

    It would also be instructive to see stats for fat folks, to validate the viruses “fat factor.”

    Might explain a lot about why blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented in Wuhan virus fatalities.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    I expect that it isn't just fat, but fat and inactive. Somebody who is overweight but exercises regularly probably does better than a couch potato of equal weight. "Healthy at every size" is BS, as this virus has made apparent. Having a lower BMI is better for you in all sorts of ways. But being regularly active probably helps as well, especially if it gets you outdoors.

    Recently a new manifestation of COVID-19 has been reported (which I find suspicious as it was not reported out of Europe) of people suddenly getting blood-clots. There are a lot of people who take no regular exercise. Their only regular activity is from going to work. Well, now a lot of them are just sitting in their homes, probably eating and drinking to excess, and they've been doing that for the last six weeks. Maybe it's not surprising that a number of them would develop blood clots and die from it.
    , @Zpaladin
    It would also explain the vastly lower rates in South Korea, Japan and other Asian countries. It’s likely a combo of colder climates, super spreader events, international travel, public transportation and obesity. NJ and NYC outer suburbs hit all of those factors.
    OTOH there are not too many obese 80 year olds because the really obese die sooner than that, so...
    , @Anonymii

    since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number.
     
    While I have no problem acknowledging that Red States, both white and minority populations, have a bigger obesity problem than the Blue States, the reality of Wuhan Flu is that so far the overwhelming majority of deaths have been in Blue States. And the numbers aren’t even close. Last I checked NY/NJ/CT alone accounted for about 55% of all US deaths. Blue States - or the blue parts of Red States - are losing people to this at much higher rates than the red parts of the country.
    , @Marty
    I noticed the same thing when I was there in ‘96. That was also the time I saw the sexiest girl I’d ever seen in my life. She was the greeter, wearing an Uncle Sam outfit, at the entrance to a strip club under a big tent just across the river. Man, was that place scary. No, not the blacks. I mean the Outfit types running that club.
    , @BB753
    Fat as in "fatter than the average American", or fat as "fatter than the average Continental European (that is, excluding the UK) "? Are people with British ancestry more prone to obesity?
    , @Simon Tugmutton
    You're right.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkW2qD6gjzI

    On the ethnic thing, see also:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXw3XqwSZFo
    , @WJ
    "While sitting in the SL AP I notice that people appear to be fatter". Thanks for the rigorous , controlled documentation of physical conditions in middle America. Meanwhile in Realworld, filthy blue staters who apparently have trouble washing their hands are dying like flies while the aforementioned Red states are barely noticing the pandemic.
  10. Anon[121] • Disclaimer says:

    Covid-19 death rates of those with low Vitamin D levels are high. It’s not just preexisting conditions, but your nutrition and race. I’ve been looking at death rates in US states that border Canada and those states with high black populations have close to 2x the death rates of those border states with a low number of blacks. Blacks in northern latitudes have trouble getting enough Vitamin D in their skin.

    Northern whites also have a lot of winter outdoor activities that blacks aren’t interested in. From example skiing, snowmobiling, skating, shoveling snow, etc. White kids like to play in snow, build snowmen and snowforts, and go sledding. I’m not sure how popular the latter are among blacks. Walking the dog in winter can give the walker some Vitamin D. I have the impression that poor blacks just let the dog go in the yard rather than walk it, whatever the season is.

    To give you an idea of how great this difference is, look at these figures from these two states:

    Current data from Montana:

    Total positive cases: 455
    Total recovered: 404
    Deaths: 16
    Death rate: 3.5%

    Current data from Michigan:

    Total positive cases: 43,754
    Total recovered: 15,659
    Deaths: 4049
    Death rate: 9.25%

    Data from the city of Detroit:

    Total positive cases: 9385
    Total deaths: 1088
    Death rate: 11.59%

    Just for comparison, here’s data from Alaska:

    Total positive cases: 368
    Total recovered: 262
    Deaths: 9
    Death rate: 2.44%

    Alaska, in fact, has one of the lowest death rates in all the US states. Maybe they stay more fit in winter.

    • Replies: @Anonymous Jew
    Alaska has the one of the lowest median age of any state, behind only Utah and DC. Alaska is a great place for a young person to earn a premium wage with less taxes, but few see it as a desirable place to retire.
    , @Richard A.
    Vitamin D status and covid-19 interactions:
    https://youtu.be/aXw3XqwSZFo
  11. @Mark G.
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female. See :

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care.

    That would mean the average person entering a nursing home would have passed away after a little over a year. Wouldn't that mean then that if the coronavirus knocks them off they have only lost a little over a year of life?

    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    Total deaths – 37,308

    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities – 6,723

    Percentage – 18%

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Note: data incomplete because of lag times for reporting and coding of confirmed deaths

    • Replies: @Xens
    Picking out just one state, WI, it shows 151 deaths as "Healthcare Setting, Inpatient" and 19 as "Nursing Home or Long Term Care Facility".

    However, on the Wisconsin state page, we have 125 deaths classed as "Long-term care facility", 10 in a "group housing facility", 74 "not in a group housing facility" (and 118 unknown from before data began to be collected on April 8th).

    I'm not sure exactly how the CDC gets to its numbers -- maybe it's only recording the "place of death" -- but I think that the state's number broadly support the original point. There have been a number of surveys supporting the +50% of nursing home deaths, both in Europe and in multiple US states.
    , @Steve Sailer
    Are they missing some nursing home and at-home deaths? That was pretty common in Europe -- initially they just were counting hospitals deaths and missing the other venues. I think Belgium was first to add in nursing home deaths.

    Of course, most of these non-hospitalized deaths that are less likely to get counted are quite old.

    , @Dmon
    I've been meaning to ask that myself. According to the official stats at the National Vital Statistics System (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm), the death number is 37,308. But World Health Odometer says we're over 60,000. What's the scoop?
    Also, not to get myself branded a fluther, but per the CDC 2017-2018 flu season estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html), the estimated death to hospitalization ratio is 61,000/810,000, which is pretty damn high (note - hospitalizations is an estimate based on a model). They only get the standard 0.1% death rate you always hear about by tacking on a factor of 10 on the symptomatic illnesses estimate (this factor being derived by assuming a 0.1% fatality rate and multiplying appropriately). What data there is from random c19 serum testing seems to indicate that the ratio of actual infected people to confirmed cases is in the neighborhood of an order of magnitude or so. By the way, the CDC website (https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/April_November_14.htm#UnderCounting) has several caveats that flu deaths may be significantly undercounted. And before anyone points to excess deaths, on the NVSS website, the next chart down is excess deaths by state. NYC (and maybe NJ) is the only place that is dramatically above normal. So what gives? How are you supposed to tell what's actually going on?
    , @prosa123
    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):
    Total deaths – 37,308
    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities – 6,723
    Percentage – 18%


    That doesn't account for nursing home residents who get transferred to hospitals and die there.
    , @Mark G.
    I'm skeptical that it would be 18% in the U.S. but 50% in Europe. WHO estimates about half of deaths in Europe have been in nursing homes. A Kaiser Family Foundation review of U.S. data also shows 50% of U.S. deaths have occurred in nursing homes:

    "As of April 26, 56% of Massachusetts’ COVID-19 deaths occurred in nursing homes. The World Health Organization similarly estimates that half of COVID-19 deaths in Europe and the Baltics are among their 4.1 million nursing home residents. A minimum of 50% of the COVID-19 deaths occurring in nursing homes also agrees with the Kaiser Family Foundation’s review of data from the 23 states that are publicly reporting nursing home deaths."

    https://theconversation.com/failure-to-count-covid-19-nursing-home-deaths-could-dramatically-skew-us-numbers-137212
  12. nietzsche was almost blind and died never married and childless from tertiary syphilis.

    nietzsche is only taken seriously as a thinker by tween girls and transgendered zambos.

    i am the greatest gay porn star of all time, and i demand respect. from now on please refer to “strykerian supermen”./

  13. Mean years of life left? Really? Look at that chart: an average 70-79 year old man with 2 co-morbidities has 14.7 years of life sheared off by COVID-19? You’re telling me that an average 70 year old man in Italy with, say, heart disease and emphysema, can expect to live to be 95? Or is that an average 79 year old man with diabetes and renal failure living to be 105?

    That just looks like bullshit.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    You’re telling me that an average 70 year old man in Italy with, say, heart disease and emphysema, can expect to live to be 95?

    70 + 14.7 = 84.7

  14. nietzsche was almost blind and died never married and childless from tertiary syphilis.

    nietzsche is only taken seriously by tween girls and transgendered zambos.

    i am the greatest gay porn star of all time, and i demand respect. from now on please refer to “strykerian supermen”.///

  15. @Mark G.
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female. See :

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care.

    That would mean the average person entering a nursing home would have passed away after a little over a year. Wouldn't that mean then that if the coronavirus knocks them off they have only lost a little over a year of life?

    They die of influenza, pneumal infections, strokes etc. Depressed residents with lots of ailments sometimes just stop eating. Nursing homes are where people go to spend their remaining months. They are not happy places. Isolation due to quarantine regulations will probably mean more depressed, morbid residents.

  16. Strangely, fewer children are dying of Covid-19 than flu. It’s only when people are older than 25 that Covid-19 deaths outnumber flu deaths

    As of May 1st:

    Age 0-14
    9 deaths attributed to Covid-19
    81 deaths attributed to flu

    Age 15-24:
    42 deaths to Covid-19
    41 deaths to flu

    Age 25-34
    278 deaths Covid-19
    130 to flu

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

  17. @Mr. Anon
    Mean years of life left? Really? Look at that chart: an average 70-79 year old man with 2 co-morbidities has 14.7 years of life sheared off by COVID-19? You're telling me that an average 70 year old man in Italy with, say, heart disease and emphysema, can expect to live to be 95? Or is that an average 79 year old man with diabetes and renal failure living to be 105?

    That just looks like bullshit.

    You’re telling me that an average 70 year old man in Italy with, say, heart disease and emphysema, can expect to live to be 95?

    70 + 14.7 = 84.7

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    Yes, you are right of course. I shouldn't do arithmetic after a glass of wine and a margarita.

    Still, 79 + 14.7 = 93.7. Is the average italian man with two co-morbidities going to live to be 94? In a region with some of the worst air pollution in Europe and the highest incidence of anti-biotic resistant bacteria in Europe (both of which Lombardy has).
    , @obwandiyag
    Bad arithmetic is the stigmata of an exploited underpaid troll.
  18. Xens says:
    @Peter Frost
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    Total deaths - 37,308

    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities - 6,723

    Percentage - 18%

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Note: data incomplete because of lag times for reporting and coding of confirmed deaths

    Picking out just one state, WI, it shows 151 deaths as “Healthcare Setting, Inpatient” and 19 as “Nursing Home or Long Term Care Facility”.

    However, on the Wisconsin state page, we have 125 deaths classed as “Long-term care facility”, 10 in a “group housing facility”, 74 “not in a group housing facility” (and 118 unknown from before data began to be collected on April 8th).

    I’m not sure exactly how the CDC gets to its numbers — maybe it’s only recording the “place of death” — but I think that the state’s number broadly support the original point. There have been a number of surveys supporting the +50% of nursing home deaths, both in Europe and in multiple US states.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Stephen Dodge
    Xens - What Peter Frost did - ignorantly present an ill-defined bureaucratic tally as something reflecting a relevant truth in the context of the discussion - shows fatigue on his part. He is usually better than that.

    Many alt-right boomer/doomers have been making similar mistakes recently. It is hard thinking you are smarter and better at numbers (and statistics and reality and differential equations) than almost anyone else, when you live in a milieu where there are many people who think the same about themselves, and when they care about the subject under discussion maybe as much as you do.

    On top of everything else, this Wuhan flu has been a case study in smart people smugly saying stupid things on a scale not seen since the invention of the internet.

    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    I’m not sure exactly how the CDC gets to its numbers

     

    We just have to take their word for it.

    Keeping coronavirus patients anonymous is crucial to battling the outbreak

    Have faith. The government wouldn't lie to us.
  19. @newrouter
    I don't know how you can statistically analyze this event when so much of the data is bullfeces.

    I don’t know how anyone could make this sort of generalization without pushing bullfeces of their own.

    • Replies: @newrouter
    Ask "Cuomo not the homo" about putting covid19 patients back into nursing homes?
  20. @Peter Frost
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    Total deaths - 37,308

    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities - 6,723

    Percentage - 18%

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Note: data incomplete because of lag times for reporting and coding of confirmed deaths

    Are they missing some nursing home and at-home deaths? That was pretty common in Europe — initially they just were counting hospitals deaths and missing the other venues. I think Belgium was first to add in nursing home deaths.

    Of course, most of these non-hospitalized deaths that are less likely to get counted are quite old.

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
    Are they missing some nursing home and at-home deaths?

    Undercounting and reporting delays are worse for at-home deaths than for nursing home deaths. If anything, the statistics exaggerate the importance of nursing home deaths.


    the death number is 37,308. But World Health Odometer says we’re over 60,000. What’s the scoop?

    The death toll is now 68,000 in the U.S. The problem here is the delay in reporting, coding, and analyzing the data.

    That doesn’t account for nursing home residents who get transferred to hospitals and die there.

    That factor is smaller for nursing home residents than for at-home seniors of the same age. If you adjust everything for that factor, nursing home deaths become less important, not more important.

    I’m skeptical that it would be 18% in the U.S. but 50% in Europe.

    Differences in culture. We see the same difference in Canada. In Quebec, seniors are placed in nursing homes at a younger age than in the rest of Canada. This is largely because Quebec is much more post-Christian, and there isn't the same sense of duty toward elderly parents. Also, there may be no surviving children to take care of them.

    You can't argue both ways. In Europe, more people die in nursing homes because seniors are placed there at an earlier age. So their remaining life expectancy is longer.

  21. @Anonymous
    When I used to fly from NYC to LA a lot, the airline I usually flew decided to make me get a connecting flight in St. Louis. A number of times I had to sit in the terminal for a couple of hours waiting for my connection. After watching hundreds of people walk by, I noticed they weren’t the same kind of people I saw at Newark or LAX airport. Every single person who walked by me was obese.

    I mentioned it to a friend, and she didn’t believe me, until she got stuck getting a connecting flight in St. Louis. She called me soon after and said, "I thought you were just being an asshole when you said everyone in the St. Louis airport was fat. But you were right! I couldn’t believe my eyes! Everybody was fat! Everybody!"

    As it has been stated that if you’re obese, the Wuhan virus has a special brand of hell for you, since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number. It’ll be interesting how the good folks of St. Louis fare.

    It would also be instructive to see stats for fat folks, to validate the viruses "fat factor."

    Might explain a lot about why blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented in Wuhan virus fatalities.

    I expect that it isn’t just fat, but fat and inactive. Somebody who is overweight but exercises regularly probably does better than a couch potato of equal weight. “Healthy at every size” is BS, as this virus has made apparent. Having a lower BMI is better for you in all sorts of ways. But being regularly active probably helps as well, especially if it gets you outdoors.

    Recently a new manifestation of COVID-19 has been reported (which I find suspicious as it was not reported out of Europe) of people suddenly getting blood-clots. There are a lot of people who take no regular exercise. Their only regular activity is from going to work. Well, now a lot of them are just sitting in their homes, probably eating and drinking to excess, and they’ve been doing that for the last six weeks. Maybe it’s not surprising that a number of them would develop blood clots and die from it.

  22. A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws.

    Not really. People are just observing that if you are the kind of person who should worry about catching the flu, then you should worry about catching this coronavirus too.

    A 75 year old man with health problems might live 15 more years. But flu could cut him down. And so could this virus. Measures needed to be in place to protect them.

    We didn’t need to ruin everyone else’s life to do that.

    • Agree: Aeronerauk
  23. @Steve Sailer
    You’re telling me that an average 70 year old man in Italy with, say, heart disease and emphysema, can expect to live to be 95?

    70 + 14.7 = 84.7

    Yes, you are right of course. I shouldn’t do arithmetic after a glass of wine and a margarita.

    Still, 79 + 14.7 = 93.7. Is the average italian man with two co-morbidities going to live to be 94? In a region with some of the worst air pollution in Europe and the highest incidence of anti-biotic resistant bacteria in Europe (both of which Lombardy has).

  24. The researchers warn that their data exclude people who died in care homes, who might have been especially sickly. Nor can they account for the severity of underlying illnesses. For example, covid-19 victims might have had particularly acute lung or heart conditions.

    These seem like pretty fundamental omissions. In fact, this study seems like it could be a classical example of the “survivor bias fallacy.” (Or maybe in this case it should be called “non-survivor bias.”)

    They are comparing people who died “because of” Covid, with the actuarial tables for a generic person with the same profile who isn’t dead. But the mere fact that you are dead strongly suggests that you were less healthy than the average person who shares your profile but isn’t dead.

    If they really wanted to do a valid study they would probably need to pre-select a group of still-alive people who contracted Covid, and compare them to a control group of similarly sick still-alive people who don’t have Covid. They could then determine the increase in mortality caused by Covid alone.

    • Replies: @utu
    Morality rates in 2021, 2022,... providing there is no major epidemic then should allow to verify the results of this article. One should expect that the death rate next year should be lower than pre-epidemic average by 10% of covid-19 death rate this year if indeed 10 years of life was lost. But if the dip is significantly larger than 10% then the paper overestimated. The confounding variable will be the death rate of survivors whose health was damaged by covid-19.

    https://www.inserm.fr/sites/default/files/2017-11/Inserm_RapportThematique_SurmortaliteCaniculeAout2003_RapportFinal.pdf

    The annual death totals in France for the period 2000-2005:

    2000 … 540,600
    2001 … 541,000
    2002 … 545,2000
    2003 … 562,500 (Canicule excess deaths)
    2004 … 519,500 (Dip, death depletion)
    2005 … 538,100
    https://www.unz.com/comments/all/?commenterfilter=for-the-record
     
  25. Dmon says:
    @Peter Frost
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    Total deaths - 37,308

    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities - 6,723

    Percentage - 18%

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Note: data incomplete because of lag times for reporting and coding of confirmed deaths

    I’ve been meaning to ask that myself. According to the official stats at the National Vital Statistics System (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm), the death number is 37,308. But World Health Odometer says we’re over 60,000. What’s the scoop?
    Also, not to get myself branded a fluther, but per the CDC 2017-2018 flu season estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html), the estimated death to hospitalization ratio is 61,000/810,000, which is pretty damn high (note – hospitalizations is an estimate based on a model). They only get the standard 0.1% death rate you always hear about by tacking on a factor of 10 on the symptomatic illnesses estimate (this factor being derived by assuming a 0.1% fatality rate and multiplying appropriately). What data there is from random c19 serum testing seems to indicate that the ratio of actual infected people to confirmed cases is in the neighborhood of an order of magnitude or so. By the way, the CDC website (https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/April_November_14.htm#UnderCounting) has several caveats that flu deaths may be significantly undercounted. And before anyone points to excess deaths, on the NVSS website, the next chart down is excess deaths by state. NYC (and maybe NJ) is the only place that is dramatically above normal. So what gives? How are you supposed to tell what’s actually going on?

  26. Life expectancy: http://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/

    Average Female Male
    2 Japan 85.03 88.09 81.91
    6 Italy 84.01 85.97 81.90
    7 Spain 83.99 86.68 81.27
    13 Sweden 83.33 84.97 81.69
    14 France 83.13 85.82 80.32
    27 Germany 81.88 84.14 79.62
    29 UK 81.77 83.28 80.22
    46 USA 79.11 81.65 76.61

  27. I’m old and poor and have a serious illness yet my current quality of life is probably higher than at age 20. One must be careful generalizing about these things.

    • Thanks: David
    • Replies: @Billy Shears
    Thanks, 'jack daniels'.
  28. Thank you thank you thank you.

    You just revealed the “comorbidity–OK boomers–they were already dying anyway” crowd” for the utter scum they are.

    I knew, for instance, 90-year-olds who had 5 to 10 more years left in their lives, years in which they were completely mentally functioning, and in which, while they did have to visit the doctors a bit much, they still managed to have some fun, even if only it was watching a good ball game.

    I hate you scum for wanting to take that away from them.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    Seems more like a love-hate, actually. But I suppose it pays the bills.
    , @Mr. Anon
    Nobody took it away from him, you raving lunatic.

    I didn't kill your old friends because I just wanted to live my life.

    F**k you.
    , @Roland
    Since spectator sports have been #canceled, if they want to watch a good ball game now, they'll be out of luck unless they want to see a rebroadcast.
  29. @Anonymous
    When I used to fly from NYC to LA a lot, the airline I usually flew decided to make me get a connecting flight in St. Louis. A number of times I had to sit in the terminal for a couple of hours waiting for my connection. After watching hundreds of people walk by, I noticed they weren’t the same kind of people I saw at Newark or LAX airport. Every single person who walked by me was obese.

    I mentioned it to a friend, and she didn’t believe me, until she got stuck getting a connecting flight in St. Louis. She called me soon after and said, "I thought you were just being an asshole when you said everyone in the St. Louis airport was fat. But you were right! I couldn’t believe my eyes! Everybody was fat! Everybody!"

    As it has been stated that if you’re obese, the Wuhan virus has a special brand of hell for you, since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number. It’ll be interesting how the good folks of St. Louis fare.

    It would also be instructive to see stats for fat folks, to validate the viruses "fat factor."

    Might explain a lot about why blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented in Wuhan virus fatalities.

    It would also explain the vastly lower rates in South Korea, Japan and other Asian countries. It’s likely a combo of colder climates, super spreader events, international travel, public transportation and obesity. NJ and NYC outer suburbs hit all of those factors.
    OTOH there are not too many obese 80 year olds because the really obese die sooner than that, so…

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    How fat are New York City people compared to, say, people in Indiana?
  30. @Steve Sailer
    You’re telling me that an average 70 year old man in Italy with, say, heart disease and emphysema, can expect to live to be 95?

    70 + 14.7 = 84.7

    Bad arithmetic is the stigmata of an exploited underpaid troll.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    The arithmetical error was not grievous; Steve addressed it tactfully and Mr. Anon acknowledged it with good grace.
    You are piling on, which is unseemly, and you should not throw stones when you live in a glasshouse.
    To wit: the word ‘stigmata’ is a plural noun, the singular being the word ‘stigma’.
    Bad arithmetic (as a singular noun) is the stigma, while bad arithmetic as a plural noun (not common) are the stigmata of an exploited, underpaid troll.
    You have outed yourself. Try a pinch of kindness next time you feel ornery.
    , @Mr. Anon
    I probably make more than you, a**hole. I certainly know more about mathematics. GFY.
  31. @Mark G.
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female. See :

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care.

    That would mean the average person entering a nursing home would have passed away after a little over a year. Wouldn't that mean then that if the coronavirus knocks them off they have only lost a little over a year of life?

    The researchers warn that their data exclude people who died in care homes, who might have been especially sickly. Nor can they account for the severity of underlying illnesses. For example, covid-19 victims might have had particularly acute lung or heart conditions. More complete data could produce a lower estimate of ylls.

    Yea… seems like that might have been pertinent data to include. It would’ve shifted the data quite a bit.

    It would be interesting to see a full accounting compared to other diseases that say… affect the respiratory system, heavily target the old and are wide spread. Maybe something like the flu?

  32. Well The Economist publicized it so it has to be a bunch of lies serving a globalist agenda. Similarly, the UK is utterly corrupt and I don’t expect Scottish universities have any great love for the truth over the Narrative.

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    Sticking your fingers in your ears and chanting, “La-la-la-la, I can’t hear you!” works just as well, and doesn’t make you look quite so stupid.
  33. “A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws”

    What a weird characterization.

    As one of the heartless ‘Supermen’, all I am urging is that we let the virus sort out the strong from the weak. Never have I claimed that there is some magical race of Supermen without physical flaws.

    I begin to see why Muslim men despise white males. We had tough men in the 19th century, the sort who could roam around the bush in Tanzania and endure all sorts of torments while keeping their wit and intellect lively. These days the soggy whites in North America can barely watch a nature documentary without sobbing.

    Selective pressures that weed out the weak, foolish, unintelligent, irresponsible, psychopathic (etc) are good for a population. If a few others are tossed in, well, that’s life.

    We should be MORE worried about dysgenic events like warfare. The European mode of war, like the welfare state, is hideously dysgenic. Historians write of the damage wrought to the German gene pool during the 30 years war, where the drop in average height and girth in recruits was noticeable over the course of the conflict. Then there is WW1, where the best young men in Europe went to their deaths for no good reason whatsoever.

    Obsessing over the effects of a mild virus on society is not only unmanly, it is irrational. Destroying the economy to save fogies and fatties is stupidity, particularly in light of the fact that we send young men to die in warfare all the time.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    As one of the heartless ‘Supermen’, all I am urging is that we let the virus sort out the strong from the weak.
     
    LOL!
    , @Bill B.

    These days the soggy whites in North America can barely watch a nature documentary without sobbing.
     
    This is true.
    , @AnotherDad

    We should be MORE worried about dysgenic events like warfare. The European mode of war, like the welfare state, is hideously dysgenic. Historians write of the damage wrought to the German gene pool during the 30 years war, where the drop in average height and girth in recruits was noticeable over the course of the conflict. Then there is WW1, where the best young men in Europe went to their deaths for no good reason whatsoever.
     
    I think it is prudent to take reasonable steps to rein the China virus in. Basically that means wearing masks in crowded public spaces (e.g. trains, bus, airplanes) and letting people know they should take their Vitamin D and zinc.

    But i'm on board with the thrust of your paragraph above.

    The critical issues that matter to the survival of America, and more broadly the West are:
    1) stopping mass immigration
    which utterly dwarfs all other issues, is truly existential and--
    way less time critical but nonetheless critical in the long run--
    2) restoring eugenic fertility.

    Everything else--including this virus--is essentially random noise that simply does not matter to the long run survival of the West .
  34. @Mark G.
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female. See :

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care.

    That would mean the average person entering a nursing home would have passed away after a little over a year. Wouldn't that mean then that if the coronavirus knocks them off they have only lost a little over a year of life?

    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female.

    Those averages are means, and are higher than the 4-month median because nursing homes often contain a small number of patients, often somewhat younger people with severe physical disabilities, who stay there for many years.

  35. @Mark G.
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female. See :

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care.

    That would mean the average person entering a nursing home would have passed away after a little over a year. Wouldn't that mean then that if the coronavirus knocks them off they have only lost a little over a year of life?

    “Nursing home” has a specific meaning of the highest level of residential senior care, and it costs around $100,000 per year.

    That 1 year life expectancy applies to it, while covid death stats group all levels of senior assisted living together.

  36. utu says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    The researchers warn that their data exclude people who died in care homes, who might have been especially sickly. Nor can they account for the severity of underlying illnesses. For example, covid-19 victims might have had particularly acute lung or heart conditions.
     
    These seem like pretty fundamental omissions. In fact, this study seems like it could be a classical example of the "survivor bias fallacy." (Or maybe in this case it should be called "non-survivor bias.")

    They are comparing people who died "because of" Covid, with the actuarial tables for a generic person with the same profile who isn't dead. But the mere fact that you are dead strongly suggests that you were less healthy than the average person who shares your profile but isn't dead.

    If they really wanted to do a valid study they would probably need to pre-select a group of still-alive people who contracted Covid, and compare them to a control group of similarly sick still-alive people who don't have Covid. They could then determine the increase in mortality caused by Covid alone.

    Morality rates in 2021, 2022,… providing there is no major epidemic then should allow to verify the results of this article. One should expect that the death rate next year should be lower than pre-epidemic average by 10% of covid-19 death rate this year if indeed 10 years of life was lost. But if the dip is significantly larger than 10% then the paper overestimated. The confounding variable will be the death rate of survivors whose health was damaged by covid-19.

    https://www.inserm.fr/sites/default/files/2017-11/Inserm_RapportThematique_SurmortaliteCaniculeAout2003_RapportFinal.pdf

    The annual death totals in France for the period 2000-2005:

    2000 … 540,600
    2001 … 541,000
    2002 … 545,2000
    2003 … 562,500 (Canicule excess deaths)
    2004 … 519,500 (Dip, death depletion)
    2005 … 538,100
    https://www.unz.com/comments/all/?commenterfilter=for-the-record

  37. anon[225] • Disclaimer says:

    After the WMD dossier that started the Iraq war and Steele dossier that started the impeachment, I think the word dossier is a dirty word it just means a bundle of lies in the mind of the public.
    At least to me, this dossier project sounds like a weak attempt to deflect attention from the catastrophic collapse in federal leadership in managing this tragedy.

    • Replies: @William Badwhite

    deflect attention from the catastrophic collapse in federal leadership in managing this tragedy.
     
    You misspelled "state and municipal leadership".
  38. @Peter Frost
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    Total deaths - 37,308

    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities - 6,723

    Percentage - 18%

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Note: data incomplete because of lag times for reporting and coding of confirmed deaths

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):
    Total deaths – 37,308
    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities – 6,723
    Percentage – 18%

    That doesn’t account for nursing home residents who get transferred to hospitals and die there.

  39. @Colin Wright
    I think that after all the noise is filtered out, the Covid-19 rumpus is most fruitfully viewed as a global, third-millennium version of the Salem witch hysteria.

    Happily, that means we can end the nonsense just as easily as our predecessors could. Unhappily, it doesn't follow that we can do the same with the global depression we've rather gratuitously launched.

    You’re an ass. I know 3 people who suffered with it. It was nasty. They survived. By the hardest. And they weren’t in nursing homes and they have many more years of productive, enjoyable life left. If the virus has done any permanent damage that is, and this is a frightening possibility. Did it ever occur to you that you might have or have had it, you didn’t have many symptoms, but it damaged your internal organs, which you won’t find out for a year or so.

    Of course not. The answer to the question of what you “think” is “not much.”

    • Thanks: Colin Wright
    • Replies: @BB753
    "Did it ever occur to you that you might have or have had it, you didn’t have many symptoms, but it damaged your internal organs, which you won’t find out for a year or so."

    Where I disagree with Wuflu fundamentalists is that there's

    1) too much speculation
    2) too much appeal to sentimentality
    3) overreaction
    4) bad and rushed decisions
    5) overwhelming propaganda (it's covid-19 everywhere on TV and Internet)
    6) confusion

    So far, we know it's not ebola: people aren't dropping dead on the streets in droves. We don't have enough data but the mortality rate is fairly low for a so-called "pandemic".
    The sick tend to be elderly or have a prior condition. It spreads quickly but does not seem to impact the health of the majority of the population.
    I fear the lockdown will prove more lethal in the long run than the virus itself.

  40. @Zpaladin
    It would also explain the vastly lower rates in South Korea, Japan and other Asian countries. It’s likely a combo of colder climates, super spreader events, international travel, public transportation and obesity. NJ and NYC outer suburbs hit all of those factors.
    OTOH there are not too many obese 80 year olds because the really obese die sooner than that, so...

    How fat are New York City people compared to, say, people in Indiana?

    • Replies: @Dan Hayes
    Purely subjective qualitative reporting, but summertime clothed NYC tourists with a mid Western twang usually have extra midriff padding.
    , @Hypnotoad666
    CDC says 27.5% of New Yorkers are obese, 34.1% of Hoosiers are obese. https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html

    According to the CDC's Adult Obesity Prevalence Map, it appears as though obesity flows downstream through the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.

    https://images.procon.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018-us-obesity-map.jpg
    , @Jim Don Bob
    My trips to NYC over the past few years have led me walking from 34th Street up Broadway or 9th Avenue to Lincoln Center (66th Street) and occasionally up to Columbia at 116th Street. Very few fatties, especially among the wypipo, compared to flyover country where there is a startling number of the very obese. Maybe it's all the walking (almost) everybody in NYC has to do.
    , @Redman
    NYC blacks, on average, seem about on par with the obesity levels of the Midwest.

    That’s my anecdotal observation from 50 plus years living in NY and 2 decades of traveling to the Midwest for business.
  41. HEL says:

    Well, I haven’t read anything of the studies beyond what you’ve posted, but the first one seems fairly crude. Age plus a simple compilation of comorbidities, that’s all they mention. Ultimately my main objection is fairly common sense base, so perhaps it isn’t valid. Nevertheless, a thought experiment: Imagine 10 80 year old men, each with 3 random comorbidities. All are infected with the coronavirus. Only one dies. Do you really think this is likely to have been random, that the sole fatality truly was average within this group? Or is it more likely that one fatality was less generally robust and hardy than the others. His dying is evidence that he wasn’t, in fact, average. Age itself is the great comorbidity, especially for this virus. This isn’t all quantified by the steady increase in comorbidities, even relatively healthy very elderly people have massively reduced physical abilities compared to when they were younger. Much of this stuff isn’t particularly noted by medical professionals as it is completely inevitable and untreatable. I really don’t have any idea how to even attempt to quantify these things. But, nevertheless, it just doesn’t seem very likely that covid fatalities really are average when you group them together with somewhat superficially similar survivors.

  42. @Jim Don Bob
    I was told there would be no math.

    “I was told there would be no math.”

    LOL.

    It’s better NOT to be a math guy. I was the captain of the Math Team in high school. I was told this would be a chick magnet. They were wrong.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna

    I was the captain of the Math Team in high school. I was told this would be a chick magnet.
     
    Sounds like someone baited you but good.
    , @Erik Sieven
    I don´t think that being unattractive plus being bad at math makes somebody more interesting for women than being unattractive plus being good at math.
  43. @Pincher Martin
    I don't know how anyone could make this sort of generalization without pushing bullfeces of their own.

    Ask “Cuomo not the homo” about putting covid19 patients back into nursing homes?

  44. @Xens
    Picking out just one state, WI, it shows 151 deaths as "Healthcare Setting, Inpatient" and 19 as "Nursing Home or Long Term Care Facility".

    However, on the Wisconsin state page, we have 125 deaths classed as "Long-term care facility", 10 in a "group housing facility", 74 "not in a group housing facility" (and 118 unknown from before data began to be collected on April 8th).

    I'm not sure exactly how the CDC gets to its numbers -- maybe it's only recording the "place of death" -- but I think that the state's number broadly support the original point. There have been a number of surveys supporting the +50% of nursing home deaths, both in Europe and in multiple US states.

    Xens – What Peter Frost did – ignorantly present an ill-defined bureaucratic tally as something reflecting a relevant truth in the context of the discussion – shows fatigue on his part. He is usually better than that.

    Many alt-right boomer/doomers have been making similar mistakes recently. It is hard thinking you are smarter and better at numbers (and statistics and reality and differential equations) than almost anyone else, when you live in a milieu where there are many people who think the same about themselves, and when they care about the subject under discussion maybe as much as you do.

    On top of everything else, this Wuhan flu has been a case study in smart people smugly saying stupid things on a scale not seen since the invention of the internet.

    • Replies: @Stephen Dodge
    BTW, Bayesian analysis supports my belief that, in this ongoing case study provided by the denizens of Wuhan, I may have said ignorant things too.

    From the beginning I have said that this little coronavirus, enhanced or not, descends from billions of generations of tricky little coronaviri (coronavirorum in the genitive plural), each generation tricky enough to support a subsequent generation, with the goal (mathematical, not teleological) of rejoicing every once in a while in a spectacularly successful generation. Speaking as a human being to fellow human beings, smugness is far from the most appropriate reaction to the current triumph of the little miscreants.

  45. @Peter Frost
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    Total deaths - 37,308

    Deaths in nursing homes or long-term facilities - 6,723

    Percentage - 18%

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Note: data incomplete because of lag times for reporting and coding of confirmed deaths

    I’m skeptical that it would be 18% in the U.S. but 50% in Europe. WHO estimates about half of deaths in Europe have been in nursing homes. A Kaiser Family Foundation review of U.S. data also shows 50% of U.S. deaths have occurred in nursing homes:

    “As of April 26, 56% of Massachusetts’ COVID-19 deaths occurred in nursing homes. The World Health Organization similarly estimates that half of COVID-19 deaths in Europe and the Baltics are among their 4.1 million nursing home residents. A minimum of 50% of the COVID-19 deaths occurring in nursing homes also agrees with the Kaiser Family Foundation’s review of data from the 23 states that are publicly reporting nursing home deaths.”

    https://theconversation.com/failure-to-count-covid-19-nursing-home-deaths-could-dramatically-skew-us-numbers-137212

  46. @Anonymous
    When I used to fly from NYC to LA a lot, the airline I usually flew decided to make me get a connecting flight in St. Louis. A number of times I had to sit in the terminal for a couple of hours waiting for my connection. After watching hundreds of people walk by, I noticed they weren’t the same kind of people I saw at Newark or LAX airport. Every single person who walked by me was obese.

    I mentioned it to a friend, and she didn’t believe me, until she got stuck getting a connecting flight in St. Louis. She called me soon after and said, "I thought you were just being an asshole when you said everyone in the St. Louis airport was fat. But you were right! I couldn’t believe my eyes! Everybody was fat! Everybody!"

    As it has been stated that if you’re obese, the Wuhan virus has a special brand of hell for you, since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number. It’ll be interesting how the good folks of St. Louis fare.

    It would also be instructive to see stats for fat folks, to validate the viruses "fat factor."

    Might explain a lot about why blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented in Wuhan virus fatalities.

    since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number.

    While I have no problem acknowledging that Red States, both white and minority populations, have a bigger obesity problem than the Blue States, the reality of Wuhan Flu is that so far the overwhelming majority of deaths have been in Blue States. And the numbers aren’t even close. Last I checked NY/NJ/CT alone accounted for about 55% of all US deaths. Blue States – or the blue parts of Red States – are losing people to this at much higher rates than the red parts of the country.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    What fatness doesn't do, elevators and subways can. Put another way, there's more than one way to succumb. Though I grant that the first is a matter of morbidity and the second more of transmission.
  47. @Stephen Dodge
    Xens - What Peter Frost did - ignorantly present an ill-defined bureaucratic tally as something reflecting a relevant truth in the context of the discussion - shows fatigue on his part. He is usually better than that.

    Many alt-right boomer/doomers have been making similar mistakes recently. It is hard thinking you are smarter and better at numbers (and statistics and reality and differential equations) than almost anyone else, when you live in a milieu where there are many people who think the same about themselves, and when they care about the subject under discussion maybe as much as you do.

    On top of everything else, this Wuhan flu has been a case study in smart people smugly saying stupid things on a scale not seen since the invention of the internet.

    BTW, Bayesian analysis supports my belief that, in this ongoing case study provided by the denizens of Wuhan, I may have said ignorant things too.

    From the beginning I have said that this little coronavirus, enhanced or not, descends from billions of generations of tricky little coronaviri (coronavirorum in the genitive plural), each generation tricky enough to support a subsequent generation, with the goal (mathematical, not teleological) of rejoicing every once in a while in a spectacularly successful generation. Speaking as a human being to fellow human beings, smugness is far from the most appropriate reaction to the current triumph of the little miscreants.

    • Replies: @Stephen Dodge
    and yes, I know that the WHO calls the disease and the disease vector.
    I will have no truck with the WHO.
  48. Anonymous[290] • Disclaimer says:

    A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws.

    Lol! Great line.

    I think they removed the under 50s to be able to show that even those that some would think would probably drop off the perch any day now, were not in such a state.

    • Replies: @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    "A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws."

    Excellent sentence. Also a straw man and a false dichotomy.

    It's best to leave a well-turned phrase unpublished in your sketches when it's unmoored from reality, Sailer. God knows I had to do that several times - because I prize truth over eloquence and refuse to publish beautiful lies.
  49. Marty says:
    @Anonymous
    When I used to fly from NYC to LA a lot, the airline I usually flew decided to make me get a connecting flight in St. Louis. A number of times I had to sit in the terminal for a couple of hours waiting for my connection. After watching hundreds of people walk by, I noticed they weren’t the same kind of people I saw at Newark or LAX airport. Every single person who walked by me was obese.

    I mentioned it to a friend, and she didn’t believe me, until she got stuck getting a connecting flight in St. Louis. She called me soon after and said, "I thought you were just being an asshole when you said everyone in the St. Louis airport was fat. But you were right! I couldn’t believe my eyes! Everybody was fat! Everybody!"

    As it has been stated that if you’re obese, the Wuhan virus has a special brand of hell for you, since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number. It’ll be interesting how the good folks of St. Louis fare.

    It would also be instructive to see stats for fat folks, to validate the viruses "fat factor."

    Might explain a lot about why blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented in Wuhan virus fatalities.

    I noticed the same thing when I was there in ‘96. That was also the time I saw the sexiest girl I’d ever seen in my life. She was the greeter, wearing an Uncle Sam outfit, at the entrance to a strip club under a big tent just across the river. Man, was that place scary. No, not the blacks. I mean the Outfit types running that club.

  50. @Steve Sailer
    How fat are New York City people compared to, say, people in Indiana?

    Purely subjective qualitative reporting, but summertime clothed NYC tourists with a mid Western twang usually have extra midriff padding.

  51. @SafeNow
    “I was told there would be no math.”

    LOL.

    It’s better NOT to be a math guy. I was the captain of the Math Team in high school. I was told this would be a chick magnet. They were wrong.

    I was the captain of the Math Team in high school. I was told this would be a chick magnet.

    Sounds like someone baited you but good.

  52. @Anonymous
    When I used to fly from NYC to LA a lot, the airline I usually flew decided to make me get a connecting flight in St. Louis. A number of times I had to sit in the terminal for a couple of hours waiting for my connection. After watching hundreds of people walk by, I noticed they weren’t the same kind of people I saw at Newark or LAX airport. Every single person who walked by me was obese.

    I mentioned it to a friend, and she didn’t believe me, until she got stuck getting a connecting flight in St. Louis. She called me soon after and said, "I thought you were just being an asshole when you said everyone in the St. Louis airport was fat. But you were right! I couldn’t believe my eyes! Everybody was fat! Everybody!"

    As it has been stated that if you’re obese, the Wuhan virus has a special brand of hell for you, since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number. It’ll be interesting how the good folks of St. Louis fare.

    It would also be instructive to see stats for fat folks, to validate the viruses "fat factor."

    Might explain a lot about why blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented in Wuhan virus fatalities.

    Fat as in “fatter than the average American”, or fat as “fatter than the average Continental European (that is, excluding the UK) “? Are people with British ancestry more prone to obesity?

  53. Back in our Manhattan days, my wife and I would visit St. Louis often to see family. We were always amazed by how big, hefty and downright fat a lot of people in St. Louis were. We’d joke that we could both put on 30 pounds and still be considered slim in St. Louis.

    People in Manhattan walk a lot, they eat with care, and they’re among other slim people. Environment and expectations count for a lot. Who wants to be the one fattie at a book party or an art opening? You’d feel like a grotesque loser. Meanwhile a fattie in St. Louis has lots of company and can feel pretty normal.

    Of course, I suppose it could also be the case that the kinds of people who are prone to live in Manhattan are people who are already prone to being slim.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna
    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
    I can tell you and you are wife are unattractive. Unattractive people dwell on their slimness as if it’s the tiniest bit impressive. Imagine the smugness you feel at being slim multipled by 100 and you will understand the smugness I (as a very attractive in shape person) would feel if I saw you at an art opening. What the fuck are those uggos doing here? The Chinese buffet is next door.
  54. @Anonymii

    since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number.
     
    While I have no problem acknowledging that Red States, both white and minority populations, have a bigger obesity problem than the Blue States, the reality of Wuhan Flu is that so far the overwhelming majority of deaths have been in Blue States. And the numbers aren’t even close. Last I checked NY/NJ/CT alone accounted for about 55% of all US deaths. Blue States - or the blue parts of Red States - are losing people to this at much higher rates than the red parts of the country.

    What fatness doesn’t do, elevators and subways can. Put another way, there’s more than one way to succumb. Though I grant that the first is a matter of morbidity and the second more of transmission.

  55. BB753 says:
    @obwandiyag
    You're an ass. I know 3 people who suffered with it. It was nasty. They survived. By the hardest. And they weren't in nursing homes and they have many more years of productive, enjoyable life left. If the virus has done any permanent damage that is, and this is a frightening possibility. Did it ever occur to you that you might have or have had it, you didn't have many symptoms, but it damaged your internal organs, which you won't find out for a year or so.

    Of course not. The answer to the question of what you "think" is "not much."

    “Did it ever occur to you that you might have or have had it, you didn’t have many symptoms, but it damaged your internal organs, which you won’t find out for a year or so.”

    Where I disagree with Wuflu fundamentalists is that there’s

    1) too much speculation
    2) too much appeal to sentimentality
    3) overreaction
    4) bad and rushed decisions
    5) overwhelming propaganda (it’s covid-19 everywhere on TV and Internet)
    6) confusion

    So far, we know it’s not ebola: people aren’t dropping dead on the streets in droves. We don’t have enough data but the mortality rate is fairly low for a so-called “pandemic”.
    The sick tend to be elderly or have a prior condition. It spreads quickly but does not seem to impact the health of the majority of the population.
    I fear the lockdown will prove more lethal in the long run than the virus itself.

    • Replies: @HallParvey

    I fear the lockdown will prove more lethal in the long run than the virus itself.
     
    Possibly. But the lockdown has shown us that there are some jobs that are not essential. It has also shown us that there are jobs that are definitely essential. Like toilet paper producers.

    After the fading of the virus and it's effects, there will need to be some major restructuring of industry and what it produces.

    Just as the federal government is the financier of both the Military Industrial Complex and the even more expensive Medical Industrial Complex, it must be ready to initiate a new Marshall Plan for sponsoring the development of American Industry that produces the stuff that we have been importing from China.

    That is going to require the printing of a large amount of money. Can you say, Inflation.
  56. @jbwilson24
    "A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws"

    What a weird characterization.

    As one of the heartless 'Supermen', all I am urging is that we let the virus sort out the strong from the weak. Never have I claimed that there is some magical race of Supermen without physical flaws.

    I begin to see why Muslim men despise white males. We had tough men in the 19th century, the sort who could roam around the bush in Tanzania and endure all sorts of torments while keeping their wit and intellect lively. These days the soggy whites in North America can barely watch a nature documentary without sobbing.

    Selective pressures that weed out the weak, foolish, unintelligent, irresponsible, psychopathic (etc) are good for a population. If a few others are tossed in, well, that's life.

    We should be MORE worried about dysgenic events like warfare. The European mode of war, like the welfare state, is hideously dysgenic. Historians write of the damage wrought to the German gene pool during the 30 years war, where the drop in average height and girth in recruits was noticeable over the course of the conflict. Then there is WW1, where the best young men in Europe went to their deaths for no good reason whatsoever.

    Obsessing over the effects of a mild virus on society is not only unmanly, it is irrational. Destroying the economy to save fogies and fatties is stupidity, particularly in light of the fact that we send young men to die in warfare all the time.

    As one of the heartless ‘Supermen’, all I am urging is that we let the virus sort out the strong from the weak.

    LOL!

  57. Well, we’re not talking about life expectancy in the wild here. That’s why our current crop of civilized people are so indignant about this disease. An 85yo Italian who dies of coronavirus may have ten years of life expectancy without Coronavirus, but that’s because we’ve had so much time to work on all the other problems.

    In wild human populations, this virus would hardly make a difference at all. It would kill a couple elders in a large tribe and maybe one unlucky middle aged guy.

    So why don’t people have a glass-half-full attitude about all this? Eventually, we’re going to learn how to treat it effectively, and that could make us better at dealing with other respiratory diseases as well. Yes, people are dying before they would otherwise, but that’s only because we’ve gotten to be so good at keeping them alive in the first place. And at least they aren’t boys getting blown away by artillery or torn to shreds by machine guns. The “war” analogies are really quite distasteful, to be honest.

    However, it really rubs me the wrong way to see people dumping on Steve for caring about this problem and trying to figure it out. That’s what he does, that’s why I’ve been reading him since the 90s, and I hope he never stops.

    Personally, I think the most damage here will be the effect this has on civil society, rule of law and liberty. That’s my angle. I’m very upset that friends are being needlessly thrown out of work, I can’t go to mass and my kids are shut out of school. My ex-wife is using this as an excuse to deny my visitation, and the courts are closed until the governor decides at his leisure I can seek a remedy. It’s an enormous burden for working parents. If I were an old man right now I honestly don’t think I’d want to put my kids through this just to enjoy a few more years of life. Maybe I’ll have a different take on it in 30 or 40 years, but I really love my children, so I doubt it. There is that suspicion that the same people who pushed for the right to kill their own children shortly before I was born are just doing the same thing they’ve always done: promoting their own interests at the expense of future generations’.

    • Agree: Semperluctor
    • Replies: @Pericles


    An 85yo Italian who dies of coronavirus may have ten years of life expectancy without Coronavirus, but that’s because we’ve had so much time to work on all the other problems.

     

    But him dying early deprives the health care system of those most lucrative last six months. I'm sure we all agree that has to be quite hurtful to them.
  58. @Colin Wright
    I think that after all the noise is filtered out, the Covid-19 rumpus is most fruitfully viewed as a global, third-millennium version of the Salem witch hysteria.

    Happily, that means we can end the nonsense just as easily as our predecessors could. Unhappily, it doesn't follow that we can do the same with the global depression we've rather gratuitously launched.

    Covid-19…is most fruitfully viewed as a global, third-millennium version of the Salem witch hysteria.

    • AGREE: Hail.

  59. @Steve Sailer
    How fat are New York City people compared to, say, people in Indiana?

    CDC says 27.5% of New Yorkers are obese, 34.1% of Hoosiers are obese. https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html

    According to the CDC’s Adult Obesity Prevalence Map, it appears as though obesity flows downstream through the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    NYS or NYC? Most of NYS is middle-America, as I'm sure you know.

    Otherwise: Damn there are a lot of fatties in this country.
    , @stillCARealist
    The CDC site says these numbers are self-reported. That means the actual numbers are much higher!

    Truly fat people stop weighing themselves after a while because it gets so depressing. The scale says back to them, "One at a time, please."
    , @Reg Cæsar
    More evidence that Colorado has replaced California as the most annoying state.

    Asians, i.e., Japanese, Chinese, Philippines, etc, greatly outnumber the Bruddah Iz demographic.

    DC is no longer a "chocolate city", but loaded with white hipsters. Any excuse for the 23rd Amendment is long gone. Repeal it.
  60. For example, an average Italian 80-year-old will reach 90. The ylls from this method were 11.5 for Italian men and 10.9 for women.

    Hopefully they scrutinize those death certificates. I recall stories from Greece where pensioners were still drawing pension years after they stopped drawing breath…

  61. @jbwilson24
    "A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws"

    What a weird characterization.

    As one of the heartless 'Supermen', all I am urging is that we let the virus sort out the strong from the weak. Never have I claimed that there is some magical race of Supermen without physical flaws.

    I begin to see why Muslim men despise white males. We had tough men in the 19th century, the sort who could roam around the bush in Tanzania and endure all sorts of torments while keeping their wit and intellect lively. These days the soggy whites in North America can barely watch a nature documentary without sobbing.

    Selective pressures that weed out the weak, foolish, unintelligent, irresponsible, psychopathic (etc) are good for a population. If a few others are tossed in, well, that's life.

    We should be MORE worried about dysgenic events like warfare. The European mode of war, like the welfare state, is hideously dysgenic. Historians write of the damage wrought to the German gene pool during the 30 years war, where the drop in average height and girth in recruits was noticeable over the course of the conflict. Then there is WW1, where the best young men in Europe went to their deaths for no good reason whatsoever.

    Obsessing over the effects of a mild virus on society is not only unmanly, it is irrational. Destroying the economy to save fogies and fatties is stupidity, particularly in light of the fact that we send young men to die in warfare all the time.

    These days the soggy whites in North America can barely watch a nature documentary without sobbing.

    This is true.

  62. Off topic a bit – but another interesting pre-print from Medrxiv. Sweden’s epidemiologists have stated that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves. I did not understood the basis for this statement. This preprint provides an explanation.

    People vary in their inherent susceptibility to infectious disease. This variability differs for each disease. The higher it is for Covid, the better.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1

    As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases.

    A very big positive impact this article discusses; is that if the variation in susceptibility is high to average for Covid, the herd immunity % can be quite low say 15%-40%.

    It appears that no one knows what the variation in susceptibility is; but experts appeared to have modeled based on the worst case of no variation at all. Perhaps this is one reason models have been wildly pessimistic.

    • Thanks: Dieter Kief, Polynikes
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Isn't it more likely that those least likely to die would tend to get infected earlier because they have less incentive to avoid infection? So, the death rate might go up over time, assuming treatment doesn't improve.
    , @Hail

    Sweden’s epidemiologists have stated that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves.
     
    I understand that it has been known to specialists for decades that any particular flu strain will carry with it a three-week-long "hit" before fading into the background and disappearing. This is because, as you say, when they begin spreading they take a portion of those closest to death anyway. The other deaths they claim are much harder in the getting.

    This "three-week hit" is exactly what happened in No-Lockdown Sweden during this flu-virus. Deaths peaked in the usual three-week window:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/coronavirus-epidemic-arc-in-sweden-may-2-update.png

    Notice the distinct peak phase beginning in the middle of the fifth week of the graph and fading by the middle eighth week.

    If no one were tracking this particular flu strain (much less hyper-tracking and giving wall-to-wall media coverage), no one would probably much notice elevated flu death rates anymore by May. Though there will be more deaths in May and maybe some in June as the bell curve you see in the Deaths curve continues its long descent towards zero. Given Deaths is the lagging-most curve, Sweden's epidemic is all-but-over.

    , @utu
    Thanks for the paper. This is true that Sweden’s epidemiologists were saying that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves. It is false. The virus has no knowledge who is more susceptible and furthermore in sane and decent society the most susceptible like the elderly will be protected and guarded the most. But it is true that susceptibility differs in population.

    What the paper by Gomes et al. is about is that in heterogenous society there are subpopulations with higher connectivity. They will get infected first because they mingle a lot and thus they are both susceptible more and they are the spreaders. They are responsible for R0 in the initial stage of epidemic. But once they get infected and when they recover or die they no longer spread the disease and the remaining population has lower connectivity and thus R0 will be smaller. This leads them to conclusion that the threshold for the herd immunity will be lower as it is not determined by the initial R0 but by those who have lower connectivity.
  63. Is ‘ylls’ now an acceptable crossword/Scrabble word?

  64. @Hypnotoad666
    CDC says 27.5% of New Yorkers are obese, 34.1% of Hoosiers are obese. https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html

    According to the CDC's Adult Obesity Prevalence Map, it appears as though obesity flows downstream through the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.

    https://images.procon.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018-us-obesity-map.jpg

    NYS or NYC? Most of NYS is middle-America, as I’m sure you know.

    Otherwise: Damn there are a lot of fatties in this country.

    • Replies: @Stan Adams

    Otherwise: Damn there are a lot of fatties in this country.
     
    We will bury you ... underneath our mounds of flab.
  65. @leterip
    Off topic a bit - but another interesting pre-print from Medrxiv. Sweden's epidemiologists have stated that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves. I did not understood the basis for this statement. This preprint provides an explanation.

    People vary in their inherent susceptibility to infectious disease. This variability differs for each disease. The higher it is for Covid, the better.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1

    As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases.
     
    A very big positive impact this article discusses; is that if the variation in susceptibility is high to average for Covid, the herd immunity % can be quite low say 15%-40%.

    It appears that no one knows what the variation in susceptibility is; but experts appeared to have modeled based on the worst case of no variation at all. Perhaps this is one reason models have been wildly pessimistic.

    Isn’t it more likely that those least likely to die would tend to get infected earlier because they have less incentive to avoid infection? So, the death rate might go up over time, assuming treatment doesn’t improve.

    • Replies: @Bill P
    Caregivers tend to have little incentive to avoid infection, because they can't really do so. Caregivers are probably among the least likely to die, but those they care for are not. I know a couple people who have worked in elder care. The money is good if you find the right family. These workers are good, diligent people, but very practical about their job, because it's required of them. You can't just blow off work because you have a sniffle or a cough. And maybe you just feel crappy because you had a little too much to drink last night with your friends, right? For a lot of people that's all this virus does. It makes you feel a bit out of sorts for a few days, maybe gives you a headache and a stuffy nose. How are they to know they are carrying an infection that could kill the old man they have to physically handle and feed at work?

    From the beginning of this thing those are the people we should have been testing instead of celebrities and athletes (how the hell did they get these highly rationed tests anyway?). People who work in elder care and other jobs dealing with vulnerable populations should have been tested on a frequent basis and given paid leave if positive. That could have saved thousands of lives. But no, we are too pure for a targeted approach. It might have disparate impact!
  66. @obwandiyag
    Bad arithmetic is the stigmata of an exploited underpaid troll.

    The arithmetical error was not grievous; Steve addressed it tactfully and Mr. Anon acknowledged it with good grace.
    You are piling on, which is unseemly, and you should not throw stones when you live in a glasshouse.
    To wit: the word ‘stigmata’ is a plural noun, the singular being the word ‘stigma’.
    Bad arithmetic (as a singular noun) is the stigma, while bad arithmetic as a plural noun (not common) are the stigmata of an exploited, underpaid troll.
    You have outed yourself. Try a pinch of kindness next time you feel ornery.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Bad arithmetic (as a singular noun) is the stigma, while bad arithmetic as a plural noun (not common) are the stigmata of an exploited, underpaid troll.
     
    Kudos (also a singular noun) to you for this. Double, if you can tell us the plural.
    , @obwandiyag
    Sophomoric pedantry is the stigmata of the Prime Number One Grade A Internet Asshole.
  67. @jack daniels
    I'm old and poor and have a serious illness yet my current quality of life is probably higher than at age 20. One must be careful generalizing about these things.

    Thanks, ‘jack daniels’.

  68. @obwandiyag
    Bad arithmetic is the stigmata of an exploited underpaid troll.

    I probably make more than you, a**hole. I certainly know more about mathematics. GFY.

  69. On the other hand, these estimates are for just Years of Life Lost, not for Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost.

    This stat sounds like something cooked up in Qalyfornia.

  70. @Semperluctor
    The arithmetical error was not grievous; Steve addressed it tactfully and Mr. Anon acknowledged it with good grace.
    You are piling on, which is unseemly, and you should not throw stones when you live in a glasshouse.
    To wit: the word ‘stigmata’ is a plural noun, the singular being the word ‘stigma’.
    Bad arithmetic (as a singular noun) is the stigma, while bad arithmetic as a plural noun (not common) are the stigmata of an exploited, underpaid troll.
    You have outed yourself. Try a pinch of kindness next time you feel ornery.

    Bad arithmetic (as a singular noun) is the stigma, while bad arithmetic as a plural noun (not common) are the stigmata of an exploited, underpaid troll.

    Kudos (also a singular noun) to you for this. Double, if you can tell us the plural.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    Arithmetics.
    Uncommon, and used when categorizing different types of arithmetic, for example, base 10, binary etc.
  71. Bruno says:

    The study is completely flawed because a 70-79 yo in a nursing home doesn’t have the life expectancy of a 70-79 yo outside of a nursing home. It is more likely be 3 at a big maximum instead of 12 for this category.

    But then you don’t know if the 3 years have been destroyed by the illness or have been revealed by it. If you had a flue who would killed only pancreas cancer men, you wouldn’t take age mean life expectancy, to measure the mean life lost. It looks like it’s partially like that both for people outside nursing home and inside the nursing home.

    So my guess is that the mean life expectancy lost is more around 2 years than 10 years.

    NB: I’m not saying that for al X, if you wouldn’t have died of X, you would have died of notX, in a short time. But the difference of impact among inside/outside nursing homes in terms of probably of death closely mirrors the difference of life expectancy among those two groups completely independently of Corona. So it’s not only completely flawed not to take the actual life expectancy of those 2 groups into account, but also not pondering a general correlation between dying from corona as revealing a previous minor life expectancy . Thus declaring the loss a second time.

  72. @newrouter
    I don't know how you can statistically analyze this event when so much of the data is bullfeces.

    The data we have is far from perfect, but it’s still a lot stronger than the mere assertions you and the rest of the just a flu trolls pull out of your arse. So there is that.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    So what fraction of "COVID-19" deaths are actually due to COVID-19? All of them? Every last one? Care to put a number on it? We're being fed numbers by people who have every incentive to inflate the numbers. Can you understand why that makes us sceptical?
  73. Hail says: • Website
    @Mark G.
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female. See :

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care.

    That would mean the average person entering a nursing home would have passed away after a little over a year. Wouldn't that mean then that if the coronavirus knocks them off they have only lost a little over a year of life?

    If 14 months is the average duration of stay at a nursing home between intake and death, we might also assume the coronavirus-positive deaths are at least at the median (7 months’ life expectancy) and probably closer to the end (4 months?). A very large portion of the deaths have <0.5 years left.

    To add up to the statement "a coronavirus death loses 11 years of life," the other 50% of deaths need to average 21.5 years let. Subtracting the nursing home people, maybe the average age of a corona-positive death is 75…drawn mainly from the least healthy quartile thereof.

    This means that this bogus-seeming study needs an unhealthy 75-year-old with underlying conditions to live to 96 to make their numbers work.

  74. Hail says: • Website

    (1) I wonder what a similar analysis would conclude to be the “average number of years of life lost to the seasonal flu,” specifically measured in terms of “all deaths positive for any epidemic flu virus.” Using the kinds of fuzzy math they do here, it’s probably going to be similar. In other words, another curious case of Corona Contextlessness (or Corona Con-Artistry).

    (2) I wonder how many more aggregate years of life are lost to the Corona Response than to the virus? It find it baffling that no one in government, we have learned, bothered doing this basic cost-benefit analysis on that.

    (2a.) Even for those obsessed narrowly with deaths in late-Q1 and Q2 of 2020, what is the average number of years of life lost to the thousands of coronavirus-negative excess deaths induced to early deaths by the unnecessary Panic (heart attack victims too terrified by the pro-Panic side’s stranglehold on the media to seek treatment)?

    (2b.) What about social disruption and recession (Average number of years of aggregate life lost to the effects of)?

    (2c.) How many babies would have been born in Dec. 2020 and 2021, 2022 and beyond but now will not be born, due to the disastrous effects of the Corona Overreaction and recession? However many millions it is in the West, all of their non-existences can be multiplied by 85 or so; all expected life years, gone, and the whole the worse for it;

    (2d.) How many aggregate years of productive life are being wasted or seriously disrupted, both during the endless, anti-science, extremist Shutdowns and beyond?

    • Replies: @Redman
    Another of many interesting points you have made.

    Why didn’t the government conduct a type of environmental impact study (EIS)- the kind of the thing that is required for practically any large building project-before engaging in the kind of extreme reaction to CV that is a first of its kind in the history of public health? Courts regularly strike down administrative rules for the failure to conduct basic cost-benefit studies.

    Maybe they did, but we haven’t seen it yet. I hope we will at some point, otherwise it seems like gross negligence to not examine the obvious significant costs.
  75. Hail says: • Website
    @leterip
    Off topic a bit - but another interesting pre-print from Medrxiv. Sweden's epidemiologists have stated that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves. I did not understood the basis for this statement. This preprint provides an explanation.

    People vary in their inherent susceptibility to infectious disease. This variability differs for each disease. The higher it is for Covid, the better.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1

    As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases.
     
    A very big positive impact this article discusses; is that if the variation in susceptibility is high to average for Covid, the herd immunity % can be quite low say 15%-40%.

    It appears that no one knows what the variation in susceptibility is; but experts appeared to have modeled based on the worst case of no variation at all. Perhaps this is one reason models have been wildly pessimistic.

    Sweden’s epidemiologists have stated that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves.

    I understand that it has been known to specialists for decades that any particular flu strain will carry with it a three-week-long “hit” before fading into the background and disappearing. This is because, as you say, when they begin spreading they take a portion of those closest to death anyway. The other deaths they claim are much harder in the getting.

    This “three-week hit” is exactly what happened in No-Lockdown Sweden during this flu-virus. Deaths peaked in the usual three-week window:

    Notice the distinct peak phase beginning in the middle of the fifth week of the graph and fading by the middle eighth week.

    If no one were tracking this particular flu strain (much less hyper-tracking and giving wall-to-wall media coverage), no one would probably much notice elevated flu death rates anymore by May. Though there will be more deaths in May and maybe some in June as the bell curve you see in the Deaths curve continues its long descent towards zero. Given Deaths is the lagging-most curve, Sweden’s epidemic is all-but-over.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Once again, why would those "closest to death" be expected to get infected first? Are people on death's door out skiing, riding the subway, shaking Tom Hanks' hand?
  76. @Reg Cæsar

    Bad arithmetic (as a singular noun) is the stigma, while bad arithmetic as a plural noun (not common) are the stigmata of an exploited, underpaid troll.
     
    Kudos (also a singular noun) to you for this. Double, if you can tell us the plural.

    Arithmetics.
    Uncommon, and used when categorizing different types of arithmetic, for example, base 10, binary etc.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    I meant the plural of kudos.
  77. @Hail

    Sweden’s epidemiologists have stated that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves.
     
    I understand that it has been known to specialists for decades that any particular flu strain will carry with it a three-week-long "hit" before fading into the background and disappearing. This is because, as you say, when they begin spreading they take a portion of those closest to death anyway. The other deaths they claim are much harder in the getting.

    This "three-week hit" is exactly what happened in No-Lockdown Sweden during this flu-virus. Deaths peaked in the usual three-week window:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/coronavirus-epidemic-arc-in-sweden-may-2-update.png

    Notice the distinct peak phase beginning in the middle of the fifth week of the graph and fading by the middle eighth week.

    If no one were tracking this particular flu strain (much less hyper-tracking and giving wall-to-wall media coverage), no one would probably much notice elevated flu death rates anymore by May. Though there will be more deaths in May and maybe some in June as the bell curve you see in the Deaths curve continues its long descent towards zero. Given Deaths is the lagging-most curve, Sweden's epidemic is all-but-over.

    Once again, why would those “closest to death” be expected to get infected first? Are people on death’s door out skiing, riding the subway, shaking Tom Hanks’ hand?

    • Troll: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Replies: @Jack D
    No they are trapped in nursing homes where the epidemic comes to them.
    , @Dddd
    Many people have probably been minimally exposed to the virus. Those with weak immune systems are more likely to be infected with minimal exposure.
    , @Polynikes
    Some of what Jack D said, but if I’m reading the description right it is somewhat unintuitive. Apparently, some people are better at warding off the virus from entering the body. You’re body has natural defenses to keep things out. I’m no doctor, but in biology we’re taught the basic function of the parts of the nose—nose hair helps keep debris out and cilia help move mucus and things out of the nose. Just an example...I’m not suggesting the above is key to this virus.

    So somehow older people are not only more susceptible to the effects of this virus but also to the virus entering the body and “taking hold” in the first place. That’s my understanding of the theory and it initially piqued my interest when i watched the first video of the Swedish expert.

    If that’s the case younger healthier people will still eventually be infected as the virus becomes more prevalent, but they’re missing big parts of the early waves. Maybe it coincides with some of the things we’ve read about viral load? I don’t know. I’d like to hear the Swedish experts expound a little.
    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    'Once again, why would those “closest to death” be expected to get infected first?'

    Once again, why are Democratic governors illegally denying citizen rights over something that kills primarily people closest to death?

    Once again, who writes "once again" ingenuously and in first-person? It's bad enough to say something so stupid and ten times worse to write it.
    , @Redman
    I think what Hail and others are saying is that the virus goes hard after those most vulnerable. To wit, those without a vigorous primary immune system, who tend to be old and/or have comorbidities.

    The virus is like a band of robbers trying to get in the front door protected by security guards (the primary immune system). The old and sick people either have no security guards, or the guards are unarmed. When the robbers run out of banks without security (or guns) they run out of legitimate targets and have to move on to something else.

    During the early stages of the epidemic, the virus is able to find a lot of weak targets (those in nursing homes, hospice care, etc.). But as time passes, it is left with mostly only hard targets that lead to it burning out on its own. I'm not a scientist, but this is how I'm interpreting the epidemiological hypothesis.

    Maybe Woody Allen could reconfigure this scene. But not for at least a couple of years....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzfuRV462_I
    , @Dmon
    It's not that the ones "closest to death" are the ones getting infected. It's that the ones "closest to death" are the ones dying.
  78. @obwandiyag
    Thank you thank you thank you.

    You just revealed the "comorbidity--OK boomers--they were already dying anyway" crowd" for the utter scum they are.

    I knew, for instance, 90-year-olds who had 5 to 10 more years left in their lives, years in which they were completely mentally functioning, and in which, while they did have to visit the doctors a bit much, they still managed to have some fun, even if only it was watching a good ball game.

    I hate you scum for wanting to take that away from them.

    Seems more like a love-hate, actually. But I suppose it pays the bills.

  79. @Bill P
    Well, we're not talking about life expectancy in the wild here. That's why our current crop of civilized people are so indignant about this disease. An 85yo Italian who dies of coronavirus may have ten years of life expectancy without Coronavirus, but that's because we've had so much time to work on all the other problems.

    In wild human populations, this virus would hardly make a difference at all. It would kill a couple elders in a large tribe and maybe one unlucky middle aged guy.

    So why don't people have a glass-half-full attitude about all this? Eventually, we're going to learn how to treat it effectively, and that could make us better at dealing with other respiratory diseases as well. Yes, people are dying before they would otherwise, but that's only because we've gotten to be so good at keeping them alive in the first place. And at least they aren't boys getting blown away by artillery or torn to shreds by machine guns. The "war" analogies are really quite distasteful, to be honest.

    However, it really rubs me the wrong way to see people dumping on Steve for caring about this problem and trying to figure it out. That's what he does, that's why I've been reading him since the 90s, and I hope he never stops.

    Personally, I think the most damage here will be the effect this has on civil society, rule of law and liberty. That's my angle. I'm very upset that friends are being needlessly thrown out of work, I can't go to mass and my kids are shut out of school. My ex-wife is using this as an excuse to deny my visitation, and the courts are closed until the governor decides at his leisure I can seek a remedy. It's an enormous burden for working parents. If I were an old man right now I honestly don't think I'd want to put my kids through this just to enjoy a few more years of life. Maybe I'll have a different take on it in 30 or 40 years, but I really love my children, so I doubt it. There is that suspicion that the same people who pushed for the right to kill their own children shortly before I was born are just doing the same thing they've always done: promoting their own interests at the expense of future generations'.

    An 85yo Italian who dies of coronavirus may have ten years of life expectancy without Coronavirus, but that’s because we’ve had so much time to work on all the other problems.

    But him dying early deprives the health care system of those most lucrative last six months. I’m sure we all agree that has to be quite hurtful to them.

  80. @Steve Sailer
    Isn't it more likely that those least likely to die would tend to get infected earlier because they have less incentive to avoid infection? So, the death rate might go up over time, assuming treatment doesn't improve.

    Caregivers tend to have little incentive to avoid infection, because they can’t really do so. Caregivers are probably among the least likely to die, but those they care for are not. I know a couple people who have worked in elder care. The money is good if you find the right family. These workers are good, diligent people, but very practical about their job, because it’s required of them. You can’t just blow off work because you have a sniffle or a cough. And maybe you just feel crappy because you had a little too much to drink last night with your friends, right? For a lot of people that’s all this virus does. It makes you feel a bit out of sorts for a few days, maybe gives you a headache and a stuffy nose. How are they to know they are carrying an infection that could kill the old man they have to physically handle and feed at work?

    From the beginning of this thing those are the people we should have been testing instead of celebrities and athletes (how the hell did they get these highly rationed tests anyway?). People who work in elder care and other jobs dealing with vulnerable populations should have been tested on a frequent basis and given paid leave if positive. That could have saved thousands of lives. But no, we are too pure for a targeted approach. It might have disparate impact!

  81. @Steve Sailer
    Once again, why would those "closest to death" be expected to get infected first? Are people on death's door out skiing, riding the subway, shaking Tom Hanks' hand?

    No they are trapped in nursing homes where the epidemic comes to them.

  82. @Anonymous
    When I used to fly from NYC to LA a lot, the airline I usually flew decided to make me get a connecting flight in St. Louis. A number of times I had to sit in the terminal for a couple of hours waiting for my connection. After watching hundreds of people walk by, I noticed they weren’t the same kind of people I saw at Newark or LAX airport. Every single person who walked by me was obese.

    I mentioned it to a friend, and she didn’t believe me, until she got stuck getting a connecting flight in St. Louis. She called me soon after and said, "I thought you were just being an asshole when you said everyone in the St. Louis airport was fat. But you were right! I couldn’t believe my eyes! Everybody was fat! Everybody!"

    As it has been stated that if you’re obese, the Wuhan virus has a special brand of hell for you, since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number. It’ll be interesting how the good folks of St. Louis fare.

    It would also be instructive to see stats for fat folks, to validate the viruses "fat factor."

    Might explain a lot about why blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented in Wuhan virus fatalities.

    You’re right.

    On the ethnic thing, see also:

  83. UK says:

    Just 1% of the dead are under 50?

    I think that informs healthy under 50 year olds just how scared they should be of this virus and just how happy they should be to have their freedoms taken from them.

    You may sarcastically insinuate that we think of ourselves as Nietzschean supermen men but being among only 1% of the already less than 1% who are dying, and being healthy – so further protecting ourselves, should not come with the restriction of us being locked in our homes “for our own safety.”

    Less than 1% of less than 1% is a risk I am quite willing to take for almost anything, nevermind life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness – or just having a f*cking life, thanks.

    For those not in the category of healthy and under 50, I am sure there are other ways of protecting yourselves than the imprisonment of the majority of the population that is younger than you.

    This quarantine has a Harrison Bergeron quality in that it seems to seek to redistribute, by bringing all low, so actually make “equal”, the risks and suffering of the pandemic.

    The under 50s have health “privilege”, so they should be locked away so older people don’t feel bad. Furthermore, they should be guilt tripped and demeaned into compliance. Cheers!

    So Sailer, in light of that, your blithely dismissive sarcasm does not suit you.

  84. @Xens
    This is a huge overestimate. 50% of the deaths in Europe are coming from nursing homes, where median life expectancy is 4 months in normal times. Even among >80-year-olds in the general population, only a small fraction are sick enough to live in nursing homes. It seems then, that a large proportion of coronavirus mortality is the weakest and sickest in their relative age cohorts. I suspect that this naive "10 years each" is an order of magnitude or so too large. This 10 years seems to be the number that I come up with when I just grossly apply actuarial tables to the known age distribution of coronavirus fatalities, a bad approach. A study that took into account the actual health conditions of specific individuals would find a much lower number.

    It seems then, that a large proportion of coronavirus mortality is the weakest and sickest in their relative age cohorts.

    It stands to reason that it would be true to at least some extent (I’m not sure it is really a full order of magnitude, but it’s gotta be more that zero), but this study makes the exact opposite assumption – that Wuhan Virus kills randomly and that those who the disease kills had the exact same life expectancy as everyone else in their age group. So either the authors are innumerate or they are trying to pull a fast one on us. The results of their “study” are trivial – the average 80 year old has 10 years of life left, CV killed some 80 year olds, therefore it trimmed 10 years off their lives.

    In reality, all 80 year olds don’t live exactly 10 years. Some of them will die tomorrow, some will die 20 years from now and it all averages out to 10 years. The question is whether CV kills more of the former group than the latter? They didn’t really make any effort to figure this out.

    I suspect that they had a strong agenda. As the article alludes to , YLL’s are used for various public health decisions so if you can come up with a really high # for YLLs then you can justify more draconian/expensive measures. The # that they came up with is the highest possible # that could be even minimally justified.

    It’s really amazing to me how the response to Wuhan Virus has become one more area where the Left/Right divide is apparent. These authors are just signalling that they are on the Left.

    • Agree: res
    • Replies: @res
    The combination of simulation and modeling along with a strong agenda makes me nervous. It is too easy to goose the model to support your agenda.

    I'm not motivated to dig into this one right now, but your point seems like the biggest issue.

    I also think it is worth noting that one of those preexisting conditions is not like the others (emphasis mine) in terms of severity. This might explain the observation about people with only one preexisting condition not doing so badly. It would help if they broke down the # preexisting condition data by particular conditions and also provided prevalences for the total populations in each age group. Say give percentages of which prexisting condition existed for the "just one" cases.

    the proportion with each LTC was as follows:- ischaemic heart disease 27.8%, atrial fibrillation 23.7%, heart failure 17.1%, stroke 11.3%, hypertension 73%, diabetes 31.3%, dementia 14.5%, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 16.7%, active cancer in the past 5 years 17.3%, chronic liver disease 4.1%, chronic renal failure 22.2%. The ISS report also presented the proportion of patients who died with each of the following multimorbidity counts: 0 (2.1%), 1 (21.3%), 2 (25.9%) and ≥3 (50.7%).
     
    How many people do you think had one of the other LTCs without having hypertension?

    I have trouble reconciling the difference in 0/1 LTC mortality rates with the quoted difference in YLL, but I suppose if the 1 LTC condition strongly correlates with age (as hypertension does) it is possible.

    Got sucked in a bit. This looks important.

    The coefficients for the survival models are shown in the supplementary appendix. Briefly, all LTCs other than hypertension were associated with increased mortality (in a model including 10 other LTCs), and for each LTC the association with mortality was attenuated as the baseline age increased.

     

    As I said, one LTC is not like the others. I have been unable to find the supplementary appendix. Perhaps they mean this?
    https://github.com/dmcalli2/covid19_yll_final/blob/master/Scripts/Addendum.md

    This is worth a look: Table A2 Hazard ratios at selected ages estimated separately for men and women having mutually adjusted for all other variables included in the model

    Their discussion of care homes looks highly relevant.

    Nonetheless, we strongly agree that care home residents, are a special population, in whom more severe disease, multimorbidity and frailty are likely to be commoner. We also agree that there are good biological reasons for suspecting that care home residents may be over-represented among COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes of death (because it is an infectious disease and people in care homes are in a communal residence), and that the inclusion of more care home residents would likely have lowered the YLL in our analyses. Therefore, we would argue that the best approach for determining life expectancy in this group would be to estimate it using data which includes care home residency status.
     
    Probably worth looking through the Strengths and limitations section of the paper itself. Some excerpts.

    However, although we had data for eleven common and important LTCs, we did not have markers of underlying disease severity among those who died. Severity of the underlying LTC has considerable impact on life expectancy28. Moreover, we had no data for rarer severe LTCs, which may nonetheless be common among those who die from COVID-19 at younger ages. As such, the attenuation of YLL following adjustment for LTCs may be an underestimate. However, we think that this effect is unlikely to be substantial enough to reduce YLL to the orders of magnitude suggested by some commentators.
     

    We did not have access to large quantities of individual-level data with which to estimate the prevalence of different combinations of LTCs.
    ...
    This model did not fully converge and had wide posteriors (indicating substantial uncertainty) for the correlation between LTCs.
     
    So much for my idea above about giving details of which LTCs were represented in the 1 LTC cases.

    Here is a non-paywalled popular article about this paper:
    https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25448/20200424/covid-19-patients-losing-13-years-lives-average-study.htm

    And a non-PDF link to the full text with some useful comments.
    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75
  85. A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws. But, it turns out, that having zero underlying conditions doesn’t add much to your life expectancy relative to having one.

    Steve, this comment is beneath you. First, as others have pointed out, the study has multiple flaws (ignoring nursing home victims, and (anti-) survivorship bias). Both of these issues jumped out quickly for many of us. Usually you’re quicker on the uptake than that. I suspect emotion impacted your cognition.

    Second, I haven’t seen a lot of Nietzschean Supermen that you’re referring to. I suspect it’s an attempt on your pat to denigrate those who have argued that the WuFlu’s cost per lift is substantially lower than, for example, traffic deaths. It’s quite possible to believe that and not see yourself as a superman.

    • Replies: @Sam Haysom
    Steve is 6’3” and has a double chin. Do you know how hard it is to display signs of obesity at 6’3”. Steve is a self indulgent boomer- just like Mickey kaus they’ve convinced themselves that their heterodox political views has a confered a sort of saint hood on them that needs to be protected at any cost by society.
  86. If we are talking the average Brit, ok, but insurers and pension actuaries look by post code, because some parts of the UK have far higher mortality rates at younger ages than others.

  87. anonymous[254] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot
    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60

    Now that the culpability of the Chinese Communist Party has been established, what should be the response?

    I like 50% tariffs and cancelling the gov bonds they own.

    What’s the word for the exact opposite of contrition?

    https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1255734356728922113

    Pompeo is leading the effort to pin blame on China and it feels like he is making stuff up on the spot.

    At one point, the secretary of state appeared confused over whether he was claiming the Sars-CoV-2 virus (which causes the Covid-19 disease) was deliberately engineered or escaped as the result of a lab accident.

    “Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point,” he said.

    But when he was reminded that US intelligence had issued a formal statement noting the opposite – that the scientific consensus was that the virus was not manmade or genetically modified – Pompeo replied: “That’s right. I agree with that.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/mike-pompeo-donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-laboratory

    • Replies: @Lot
    The guardian’s claim Pompeo was “confused” is not supported by the transcript.

    The virus was found in a bat, modified to infect human beings as part of the lab’s research (not to make a weapon specifically), and then escaped because of typically shoddy Chinese safety and quality control practices.

    Seriously, can anyone point to ANY evidence against this?
  88. At it end, it all comes down to the rhetorical question, inscribed in clay tablets in Mesopotamia ca. 4,000 years ago: Is life without a glow better than death?

  89. @Peterike
    Well The Economist publicized it so it has to be a bunch of lies serving a globalist agenda. Similarly, the UK is utterly corrupt and I don’t expect Scottish universities have any great love for the truth over the Narrative.

    Sticking your fingers in your ears and chanting, “La-la-la-la, I can’t hear you!” works just as well, and doesn’t make you look quite so stupid.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Sticking your fingers in your ears and chanting, “La-la-la-la, I can’t hear you!” works just as well, and doesn’t make you look quite so stupid.
     
    Running around like a debutante with the vapors at the prospect of a pandemic no worse than the Hong Kong Flu makes you look pretty stupid.
  90. @SafeNow
    “I was told there would be no math.”

    LOL.

    It’s better NOT to be a math guy. I was the captain of the Math Team in high school. I was told this would be a chick magnet. They were wrong.

    I don´t think that being unattractive plus being bad at math makes somebody more interesting for women than being unattractive plus being good at math.

  91. “A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws. But, it turns out, that having zero underlying conditions doesn’t add much to your life expectancy relative to having one. For example, 50-something men who died of CV with zero long-term conditions had an expected additional life span of 35.81 years, while those who died with 1 LTC lost an expected 35.03, while those with 5 LTCs lost 19.39.”

    Your attempts to validate and rationalize the hysterical reaction to this mild pandemic are becoming more extreme. The above is a good example.

  92. Northern Italy does not have as many morbidly obese blacks.

  93. @Steve Sailer
    Are they missing some nursing home and at-home deaths? That was pretty common in Europe -- initially they just were counting hospitals deaths and missing the other venues. I think Belgium was first to add in nursing home deaths.

    Of course, most of these non-hospitalized deaths that are less likely to get counted are quite old.

    Are they missing some nursing home and at-home deaths?

    Undercounting and reporting delays are worse for at-home deaths than for nursing home deaths. If anything, the statistics exaggerate the importance of nursing home deaths.

    the death number is 37,308. But World Health Odometer says we’re over 60,000. What’s the scoop?

    The death toll is now 68,000 in the U.S. The problem here is the delay in reporting, coding, and analyzing the data.

    That doesn’t account for nursing home residents who get transferred to hospitals and die there.

    That factor is smaller for nursing home residents than for at-home seniors of the same age. If you adjust everything for that factor, nursing home deaths become less important, not more important.

    I’m skeptical that it would be 18% in the U.S. but 50% in Europe.

    Differences in culture. We see the same difference in Canada. In Quebec, seniors are placed in nursing homes at a younger age than in the rest of Canada. This is largely because Quebec is much more post-Christian, and there isn’t the same sense of duty toward elderly parents. Also, there may be no surviving children to take care of them.

    You can’t argue both ways. In Europe, more people die in nursing homes because seniors are placed there at an earlier age. So their remaining life expectancy is longer.

    • Replies: @Mark G.

    Differences in culture.
     
    "David C. Grabowski, who studies nursing homes at Harvard University, told the New York Times that by the time the pandemic has run its course in America, nursing home deaths will account for about half of all coronavirus fatalities nationwide."

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/blows-up-like-wildfire-experts-predict-half-of-us-coronavirus-deaths-will-happen-in-nursing-homes
  94. @Steve Sailer
    How fat are New York City people compared to, say, people in Indiana?

    My trips to NYC over the past few years have led me walking from 34th Street up Broadway or 9th Avenue to Lincoln Center (66th Street) and occasionally up to Columbia at 116th Street. Very few fatties, especially among the wypipo, compared to flyover country where there is a startling number of the very obese. Maybe it’s all the walking (almost) everybody in NYC has to do.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I've only been to Manhattan and Brooklyn in the last 29 years. It used to be that Los Angeles had the best looking women on average, comparable to Milan, but over the last decade, it's more likely that Lower Manhattan has pulled ahead.
  95. @Jim Don Bob
    My trips to NYC over the past few years have led me walking from 34th Street up Broadway or 9th Avenue to Lincoln Center (66th Street) and occasionally up to Columbia at 116th Street. Very few fatties, especially among the wypipo, compared to flyover country where there is a startling number of the very obese. Maybe it's all the walking (almost) everybody in NYC has to do.

    I’ve only been to Manhattan and Brooklyn in the last 29 years. It used to be that Los Angeles had the best looking women on average, comparable to Milan, but over the last decade, it’s more likely that Lower Manhattan has pulled ahead.

    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
    Especially the Lower East side.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hadRsj4W4qg
    , @Jim Don Bob
    Being fat in NYC or DC is regarded as low class, just like cigarette smoking. But people like this, and much much worse, are not an uncommon sight in the parts of flyover country that I have been to, and not just the elderly.

    https://www.steamtrainfitness.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Overweight-seniors-walking.jpg
  96. It is pretty clear at this point that a large number of Boomers have been infected by the germ, and though seemingly asymptomatic; they are, in fact, suffering a cat-lady type syndrome.

    • LOL: BB753
  97. @newrouter
    I don't know how you can statistically analyze this event when so much of the data is bullfeces.

    Considering that the CDC just cut (in one fell swoop) in half its own reported number of US deaths unequivocally attributable to Covid-19, there’s no justification to be subjecting newrouter to a beat down for his observation.

  98. @Steve Sailer
    I've only been to Manhattan and Brooklyn in the last 29 years. It used to be that Los Angeles had the best looking women on average, comparable to Milan, but over the last decade, it's more likely that Lower Manhattan has pulled ahead.

    Especially the Lower East side.

  99. Hawaii is a sunkissed Baywatch sort of place where the bikini body is much in evidence, but why is Colorado comparatively slim? All that climbing up mountains?

  100. @Mark G.
    Here in the U.S between 40 and 60 percent of coronavirus deaths occurred in nursing homes, depending on the state. The average stay in a nursing home is .88 years for a male and 1.44 years for a female. See :

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/823957/75-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care.

    That would mean the average person entering a nursing home would have passed away after a little over a year. Wouldn't that mean then that if the coronavirus knocks them off they have only lost a little over a year of life?

    Here in Connecticut, the age breakdown of Covid deaths as of Mayday–the most recent set the state has published–looks like this:

    Age Deaths % of Total
    >=80 1357 58%
    70-79 521 22%
    60-69 300 13%
    50-59 102 4%
    40-49 32 1%
    30-39 18 1%
    20-29 3 0%
    1 0%
    1 0%
    2335

    I guess I’ll take their word for it that the average Italian 80-year-old makes it to 90, although that certainly wouldn’t have been my guess. Nevertheless, that number must drop pretty sharply as you get through the 80s: it simply cannot be the case that a lot of 89-year-olds make it to 99. Maybe either Italy or Connecticut is weird, but I have a hard time seeing how the math works out here.

    (Sorry: I can’t figure out how to format that table any better. But you get the idea.)

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    >=80 1357 58%

     

    LOL at that. All planet Earth never leave the house again forever for that.

    Psalms 90:10:
    “The days of our years are threescore years and ten; and if by reason of strength they be fourscore years...”
  101. @Steve Sailer
    Once again, why would those "closest to death" be expected to get infected first? Are people on death's door out skiing, riding the subway, shaking Tom Hanks' hand?

    Many people have probably been minimally exposed to the virus. Those with weak immune systems are more likely to be infected with minimal exposure.

  102. Average age of kungflu decedent is 80.

    Average health of kungflu decedent was absolutely shitty – they weren’t living another 10 months, never mind 10 years.

    This is a hoax.

    Stay Home Save Lives…. lives scarcely worth living anymore since Democratic governors forcibly and illegally, without due process, disemployed millions.

    Life is full of risks – it’s past time for the young to live a full and rich life whilst bedshitters hide in their closets, Sailer. If that’s even your real name – or maybe you don’t know your bio parents’s names.

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
    Average age of kungflu decedent is 80. This is a hoax.

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death, United States (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    85 and over - 11,458 = 31%
    75 to 84 - 10,196 = 27%
    65 to 74 - 8,001 = 21%
    0 to 64 - 7,653 = 21%

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Are these people "at death's door"?

  103. B36 says:

    Among viruses this is a magnanimous virus. It does not kill infants, children, or teenagers and barely touches adults before the age of 60 or so. Our response has been to send the government into trillions and trillions of dollars of additional debt and our economy into a depression. It is fortunate that there will be young people ready to joyfully make the personal sacrifices necessary to repay these debts and rebuild the economy over the coming decades. Or at least until the next virus escapes China.

    • Agree: BB753
  104. @Steve Sailer
    How fat are New York City people compared to, say, people in Indiana?

    NYC blacks, on average, seem about on par with the obesity levels of the Midwest.

    That’s my anecdotal observation from 50 plus years living in NY and 2 decades of traveling to the Midwest for business.

  105. WJ says:
    @Anonymous
    When I used to fly from NYC to LA a lot, the airline I usually flew decided to make me get a connecting flight in St. Louis. A number of times I had to sit in the terminal for a couple of hours waiting for my connection. After watching hundreds of people walk by, I noticed they weren’t the same kind of people I saw at Newark or LAX airport. Every single person who walked by me was obese.

    I mentioned it to a friend, and she didn’t believe me, until she got stuck getting a connecting flight in St. Louis. She called me soon after and said, "I thought you were just being an asshole when you said everyone in the St. Louis airport was fat. But you were right! I couldn’t believe my eyes! Everybody was fat! Everybody!"

    As it has been stated that if you’re obese, the Wuhan virus has a special brand of hell for you, since fat medically complicates about everything, it stands to reason that the flyover states are going to wind up with the most deaths, by a significant number. It’ll be interesting how the good folks of St. Louis fare.

    It would also be instructive to see stats for fat folks, to validate the viruses "fat factor."

    Might explain a lot about why blacks and Hispanics are overrepresented in Wuhan virus fatalities.

    “While sitting in the SL AP I notice that people appear to be fatter”. Thanks for the rigorous , controlled documentation of physical conditions in middle America. Meanwhile in Realworld, filthy blue staters who apparently have trouble washing their hands are dying like flies while the aforementioned Red states are barely noticing the pandemic.

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    http://www.socialworkersspeak.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/precious_ver4.jpg
  106. @Steve Sailer
    Once again, why would those "closest to death" be expected to get infected first? Are people on death's door out skiing, riding the subway, shaking Tom Hanks' hand?

    Some of what Jack D said, but if I’m reading the description right it is somewhat unintuitive. Apparently, some people are better at warding off the virus from entering the body. You’re body has natural defenses to keep things out. I’m no doctor, but in biology we’re taught the basic function of the parts of the nose—nose hair helps keep debris out and cilia help move mucus and things out of the nose. Just an example…I’m not suggesting the above is key to this virus.

    So somehow older people are not only more susceptible to the effects of this virus but also to the virus entering the body and “taking hold” in the first place. That’s my understanding of the theory and it initially piqued my interest when i watched the first video of the Swedish expert.

    If that’s the case younger healthier people will still eventually be infected as the virus becomes more prevalent, but they’re missing big parts of the early waves. Maybe it coincides with some of the things we’ve read about viral load? I don’t know. I’d like to hear the Swedish experts expound a little.

    • Replies: @Hail

    some people are better at warding off the virus from entering the body
     
    I'd say your description is close to the mark but should be tweaked as follows:

    It's not that the virus never enters the body at all for those with strong immune systems and children, it's that the virus (and in fact any virus of this kind) is easily batted off once in the system in the majority of cases.

    I believe the randomized population studies we have suggest the following are ballpark numbers on all-population reactions to this flu strain:

    - 85% who get the virus never get any symptoms, or symptoms almost too mild to notice (hardly off the baseline average for "how do you feel day to day, week to week," say);
    - 13% get 'flu' symptoms that require no treatment, and
    - 2% have more serious symptoms; most of these seek treatment, becoming the "confirmed positives;" a small portion of these die (up to 2% of those with serious symptoms are said to be dying, 2% of the 2%).

    Of the last group (the most serious 2% of all-population positives), about 3.5% have so far entered ICUs in the case of Sweden.

  107. @Anonymous

    A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws.
     
    Lol! Great line.

    I think they removed the under 50s to be able to show that even those that some would think would probably drop off the perch any day now, were not in such a state.

    “A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws.”

    Excellent sentence. Also a straw man and a false dichotomy.

    It’s best to leave a well-turned phrase unpublished in your sketches when it’s unmoored from reality, Sailer. God knows I had to do that several times – because I prize truth over eloquence and refuse to publish beautiful lies.

  108. @Hail
    (1) I wonder what a similar analysis would conclude to be the "average number of years of life lost to the seasonal flu," specifically measured in terms of "all deaths positive for any epidemic flu virus." Using the kinds of fuzzy math they do here, it's probably going to be similar. In other words, another curious case of Corona Contextlessness (or Corona Con-Artistry).

    (2) I wonder how many more aggregate years of life are lost to the Corona Response than to the virus? It find it baffling that no one in government, we have learned, bothered doing this basic cost-benefit analysis on that.

    (2a.) Even for those obsessed narrowly with deaths in late-Q1 and Q2 of 2020, what is the average number of years of life lost to the thousands of coronavirus-negative excess deaths induced to early deaths by the unnecessary Panic (heart attack victims too terrified by the pro-Panic side's stranglehold on the media to seek treatment)?

    (2b.) What about social disruption and recession (Average number of years of aggregate life lost to the effects of)?

    (2c.) How many babies would have been born in Dec. 2020 and 2021, 2022 and beyond but now will not be born, due to the disastrous effects of the Corona Overreaction and recession? However many millions it is in the West, all of their non-existences can be multiplied by 85 or so; all expected life years, gone, and the whole the worse for it;

    (2d.) How many aggregate years of productive life are being wasted or seriously disrupted, both during the endless, anti-science, extremist Shutdowns and beyond?

    Another of many interesting points you have made.

    Why didn’t the government conduct a type of environmental impact study (EIS)- the kind of the thing that is required for practically any large building project-before engaging in the kind of extreme reaction to CV that is a first of its kind in the history of public health? Courts regularly strike down administrative rules for the failure to conduct basic cost-benefit studies.

    Maybe they did, but we haven’t seen it yet. I hope we will at some point, otherwise it seems like gross negligence to not examine the obvious significant costs.

  109. @Steve Sailer
    Once again, why would those "closest to death" be expected to get infected first? Are people on death's door out skiing, riding the subway, shaking Tom Hanks' hand?

    ‘Once again, why would those “closest to death” be expected to get infected first?’

    Once again, why are Democratic governors illegally denying citizen rights over something that kills primarily people closest to death?

    Once again, who writes “once again” ingenuously and in first-person? It’s bad enough to say something so stupid and ten times worse to write it.

  110. @Steve Sailer
    Once again, why would those "closest to death" be expected to get infected first? Are people on death's door out skiing, riding the subway, shaking Tom Hanks' hand?

    I think what Hail and others are saying is that the virus goes hard after those most vulnerable. To wit, those without a vigorous primary immune system, who tend to be old and/or have comorbidities.

    The virus is like a band of robbers trying to get in the front door protected by security guards (the primary immune system). The old and sick people either have no security guards, or the guards are unarmed. When the robbers run out of banks without security (or guns) they run out of legitimate targets and have to move on to something else.

    During the early stages of the epidemic, the virus is able to find a lot of weak targets (those in nursing homes, hospice care, etc.). But as time passes, it is left with mostly only hard targets that lead to it burning out on its own. I’m not a scientist, but this is how I’m interpreting the epidemiological hypothesis.

    Maybe Woody Allen could reconfigure this scene. But not for at least a couple of years….

    • Agree: Hail
    • Replies: @Wielgus
    "I'm a graduate of New York University."
    "We're gonna make it."
  111. @Hypnotoad666
    CDC says 27.5% of New Yorkers are obese, 34.1% of Hoosiers are obese. https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html

    According to the CDC's Adult Obesity Prevalence Map, it appears as though obesity flows downstream through the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.

    https://images.procon.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018-us-obesity-map.jpg

    The CDC site says these numbers are self-reported. That means the actual numbers are much higher!

    Truly fat people stop weighing themselves after a while because it gets so depressing. The scale says back to them, “One at a time, please.”

  112. @Anonymous (n)
    The data we have is far from perfect, but it's still a lot stronger than the mere assertions you and the rest of the just a flu trolls pull out of your arse. So there is that.

    So what fraction of “COVID-19” deaths are actually due to COVID-19? All of them? Every last one? Care to put a number on it? We’re being fed numbers by people who have every incentive to inflate the numbers. Can you understand why that makes us sceptical?

  113. @Keypusher
    Sticking your fingers in your ears and chanting, “La-la-la-la, I can’t hear you!” works just as well, and doesn’t make you look quite so stupid.

    Sticking your fingers in your ears and chanting, “La-la-la-la, I can’t hear you!” works just as well, and doesn’t make you look quite so stupid.

    Running around like a debutante with the vapors at the prospect of a pandemic no worse than the Hong Kong Flu makes you look pretty stupid.

  114. @obwandiyag
    Thank you thank you thank you.

    You just revealed the "comorbidity--OK boomers--they were already dying anyway" crowd" for the utter scum they are.

    I knew, for instance, 90-year-olds who had 5 to 10 more years left in their lives, years in which they were completely mentally functioning, and in which, while they did have to visit the doctors a bit much, they still managed to have some fun, even if only it was watching a good ball game.

    I hate you scum for wanting to take that away from them.

    Nobody took it away from him, you raving lunatic.

    I didn’t kill your old friends because I just wanted to live my life.

    F**k you.

  115. @anon
    After the WMD dossier that started the Iraq war and Steele dossier that started the impeachment, I think the word dossier is a dirty word it just means a bundle of lies in the mind of the public.
    At least to me, this dossier project sounds like a weak attempt to deflect attention from the catastrophic collapse in federal leadership in managing this tragedy.

    deflect attention from the catastrophic collapse in federal leadership in managing this tragedy.

    You misspelled “state and municipal leadership”.

  116. Sean says:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8226675/Care-home-residents-asked-sign-letters-agreeing-WONT-hospital-COVID-19.html

    ——
    It has always been true a lot of old folk who are being looked after in care institutions, and a surprising number who have people coming to look after them in their own homes even, have signed (or in some cases had signed for them by their relatives) D0 Not Resuscitate forms. There is seemingly not much to choose between the last years of life and death, at least for the person actually living it. Something to be remembered when talking about people dying before their time and ‘losing’ years. They would be taken to hospital if that was what they wanted, and if they get palliative care only and quickly slip away in the familiar surroundings of a care institution or of their own home from COVID-19, then that is probably because it was the way they wanted it. The idea that hospitals would be overwhelmed did not take DNR non patient deaths into account I think.

  117. Anon[899] • Disclaimer says:

    If average life expectancy for an Italian 75 year old in 2020 is 10 years (for example) and if by 2031+N more Italian 86+N year olds are puttering around than the former expectancy would have predicted (excluding CV deaths, of course), wouldn’t it be true that CV had only killed those people who brought the average down to 10 years life expectancy in the first place? Which is to say, counting the number of dead right now and multiplying by 10 might not be the right way to determine years lost?

    [Of course, one has to acknowledge the possibility that 2020 life expectancies will be revised downwards even when excluding CV deaths]

  118. @Xens
    Picking out just one state, WI, it shows 151 deaths as "Healthcare Setting, Inpatient" and 19 as "Nursing Home or Long Term Care Facility".

    However, on the Wisconsin state page, we have 125 deaths classed as "Long-term care facility", 10 in a "group housing facility", 74 "not in a group housing facility" (and 118 unknown from before data began to be collected on April 8th).

    I'm not sure exactly how the CDC gets to its numbers -- maybe it's only recording the "place of death" -- but I think that the state's number broadly support the original point. There have been a number of surveys supporting the +50% of nursing home deaths, both in Europe and in multiple US states.

    I’m not sure exactly how the CDC gets to its numbers

    We just have to take their word for it.

    Keeping coronavirus patients anonymous is crucial to battling the outbreak

    Have faith. The government wouldn’t lie to us.

  119. @BB753
    "Did it ever occur to you that you might have or have had it, you didn’t have many symptoms, but it damaged your internal organs, which you won’t find out for a year or so."

    Where I disagree with Wuflu fundamentalists is that there's

    1) too much speculation
    2) too much appeal to sentimentality
    3) overreaction
    4) bad and rushed decisions
    5) overwhelming propaganda (it's covid-19 everywhere on TV and Internet)
    6) confusion

    So far, we know it's not ebola: people aren't dropping dead on the streets in droves. We don't have enough data but the mortality rate is fairly low for a so-called "pandemic".
    The sick tend to be elderly or have a prior condition. It spreads quickly but does not seem to impact the health of the majority of the population.
    I fear the lockdown will prove more lethal in the long run than the virus itself.

    I fear the lockdown will prove more lethal in the long run than the virus itself.

    Possibly. But the lockdown has shown us that there are some jobs that are not essential. It has also shown us that there are jobs that are definitely essential. Like toilet paper producers.

    After the fading of the virus and it’s effects, there will need to be some major restructuring of industry and what it produces.

    Just as the federal government is the financier of both the Military Industrial Complex and the even more expensive Medical Industrial Complex, it must be ready to initiate a new Marshall Plan for sponsoring the development of American Industry that produces the stuff that we have been importing from China.

    That is going to require the printing of a large amount of money. Can you say, Inflation.

    • Replies: @BB753
    Debt and the Fed scam will prove to be the end of this nation.
    , @Peterike
    “ it must be ready to initiate a new Marshall Plan for sponsoring the development of American Industry that produces the stuff that we have been importing from China.”

    Maybe if Trump wins. Anyone else and it’s right back to globalism, full blast.
  120. res says:
    @Jack D

    It seems then, that a large proportion of coronavirus mortality is the weakest and sickest in their relative age cohorts.
     
    It stands to reason that it would be true to at least some extent (I'm not sure it is really a full order of magnitude, but it's gotta be more that zero), but this study makes the exact opposite assumption - that Wuhan Virus kills randomly and that those who the disease kills had the exact same life expectancy as everyone else in their age group. So either the authors are innumerate or they are trying to pull a fast one on us. The results of their "study" are trivial - the average 80 year old has 10 years of life left, CV killed some 80 year olds, therefore it trimmed 10 years off their lives.

    In reality, all 80 year olds don't live exactly 10 years. Some of them will die tomorrow, some will die 20 years from now and it all averages out to 10 years. The question is whether CV kills more of the former group than the latter? They didn't really make any effort to figure this out.

    I suspect that they had a strong agenda. As the article alludes to , YLL's are used for various public health decisions so if you can come up with a really high # for YLLs then you can justify more draconian/expensive measures. The # that they came up with is the highest possible # that could be even minimally justified.

    It's really amazing to me how the response to Wuhan Virus has become one more area where the Left/Right divide is apparent. These authors are just signalling that they are on the Left.

    The combination of simulation and modeling along with a strong agenda makes me nervous. It is too easy to goose the model to support your agenda.

    I’m not motivated to dig into this one right now, but your point seems like the biggest issue.

    I also think it is worth noting that one of those preexisting conditions is not like the others (emphasis mine) in terms of severity. This might explain the observation about people with only one preexisting condition not doing so badly. It would help if they broke down the # preexisting condition data by particular conditions and also provided prevalences for the total populations in each age group. Say give percentages of which prexisting condition existed for the “just one” cases.

    the proportion with each LTC was as follows:- ischaemic heart disease 27.8%, atrial fibrillation 23.7%, heart failure 17.1%, stroke 11.3%, hypertension 73%, diabetes 31.3%, dementia 14.5%, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 16.7%, active cancer in the past 5 years 17.3%, chronic liver disease 4.1%, chronic renal failure 22.2%. The ISS report also presented the proportion of patients who died with each of the following multimorbidity counts: 0 (2.1%), 1 (21.3%), 2 (25.9%) and ≥3 (50.7%).

    How many people do you think had one of the other LTCs without having hypertension?

    I have trouble reconciling the difference in 0/1 LTC mortality rates with the quoted difference in YLL, but I suppose if the 1 LTC condition strongly correlates with age (as hypertension does) it is possible.

    Got sucked in a bit. This looks important.

    The coefficients for the survival models are shown in the supplementary appendix. Briefly, all LTCs other than hypertension were associated with increased mortality (in a model including 10 other LTCs), and for each LTC the association with mortality was attenuated as the baseline age increased.

    As I said, one LTC is not like the others. I have been unable to find the supplementary appendix. Perhaps they mean this?
    https://github.com/dmcalli2/covid19_yll_final/blob/master/Scripts/Addendum.md

    This is worth a look: Table A2 Hazard ratios at selected ages estimated separately for men and women having mutually adjusted for all other variables included in the model

    Their discussion of care homes looks highly relevant.

    Nonetheless, we strongly agree that care home residents, are a special population, in whom more severe disease, multimorbidity and frailty are likely to be commoner. We also agree that there are good biological reasons for suspecting that care home residents may be over-represented among COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes of death (because it is an infectious disease and people in care homes are in a communal residence), and that the inclusion of more care home residents would likely have lowered the YLL in our analyses. Therefore, we would argue that the best approach for determining life expectancy in this group would be to estimate it using data which includes care home residency status.

    Probably worth looking through the Strengths and limitations section of the paper itself. Some excerpts.

    However, although we had data for eleven common and important LTCs, we did not have markers of underlying disease severity among those who died. Severity of the underlying LTC has considerable impact on life expectancy28. Moreover, we had no data for rarer severe LTCs, which may nonetheless be common among those who die from COVID-19 at younger ages. As such, the attenuation of YLL following adjustment for LTCs may be an underestimate. However, we think that this effect is unlikely to be substantial enough to reduce YLL to the orders of magnitude suggested by some commentators.

    We did not have access to large quantities of individual-level data with which to estimate the prevalence of different combinations of LTCs.

    This model did not fully converge and had wide posteriors (indicating substantial uncertainty) for the correlation between LTCs.

    So much for my idea above about giving details of which LTCs were represented in the 1 LTC cases.

    Here is a non-paywalled popular article about this paper:
    https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25448/20200424/covid-19-patients-losing-13-years-lives-average-study.htm

    And a non-PDF link to the full text with some useful comments.
    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    The combination of simulation and modeling along with a strong agenda makes me nervous. It is too easy to goose the model to support your agenda.
     
    Hmm, like catastrophic anthropogenic global warming? I share your concern.
  121. @slumber_j
    Here in Connecticut, the age breakdown of Covid deaths as of Mayday--the most recent set the state has published--looks like this:

    Age Deaths % of Total
    >=80 1357 58%
    70-79 521 22%
    60-69 300 13%
    50-59 102 4%
    40-49 32 1%
    30-39 18 1%
    20-29 3 0%
    1 0%
    1 0%
    2335

    I guess I'll take their word for it that the average Italian 80-year-old makes it to 90, although that certainly wouldn't have been my guess. Nevertheless, that number must drop pretty sharply as you get through the 80s: it simply cannot be the case that a lot of 89-year-olds make it to 99. Maybe either Italy or Connecticut is weird, but I have a hard time seeing how the math works out here.

    (Sorry: I can't figure out how to format that table any better. But you get the idea.)

    >=80 1357 58%

    LOL at that. All planet Earth never leave the house again forever for that.

    Psalms 90:10:
    “The days of our years are threescore years and ten; and if by reason of strength they be fourscore years…”

  122. @Semperluctor
    Arithmetics.
    Uncommon, and used when categorizing different types of arithmetic, for example, base 10, binary etc.

    I meant the plural of kudos.

    • Replies: @Redman
    Since it's from the Greek "Kydos," wouldn't it be "Kudoses"?
    , @Semperluctor
    Sorry, I misunderstood you.
    The singular noun is kudo.
    ‘He received a kudo from his teacher for his dissertation on Matisse’.
    The plural noun is kudos.
    ‘She received kudos and a book contract for her dissertation on Renoir’.
  123. @WJ
    "While sitting in the SL AP I notice that people appear to be fatter". Thanks for the rigorous , controlled documentation of physical conditions in middle America. Meanwhile in Realworld, filthy blue staters who apparently have trouble washing their hands are dying like flies while the aforementioned Red states are barely noticing the pandemic.

  124. Lot says:
    @anonymous
    Pompeo is leading the effort to pin blame on China and it feels like he is making stuff up on the spot.

    At one point, the secretary of state appeared confused over whether he was claiming the Sars-CoV-2 virus (which causes the Covid-19 disease) was deliberately engineered or escaped as the result of a lab accident.

    “Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point,” he said.

    But when he was reminded that US intelligence had issued a formal statement noting the opposite – that the scientific consensus was that the virus was not manmade or genetically modified – Pompeo replied: “That’s right. I agree with that.”
     
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/mike-pompeo-donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-laboratory

    The guardian’s claim Pompeo was “confused” is not supported by the transcript.

    The virus was found in a bat, modified to infect human beings as part of the lab’s research (not to make a weapon specifically), and then escaped because of typically shoddy Chinese safety and quality control practices.

    Seriously, can anyone point to ANY evidence against this?

    • Replies: @anonymous
    Transcript

    RADDATZ: Do you believe it was manmade or genetically modified?

    POMPEO: Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.

    RADDATZ: Your -- your Office of the DNI says the consensus, the scientific consensus was not manmade or genetically modified.

    POMPEO: That's right. I -- I -- I agree with that. Yes. I've -- I've seen their analysis. I've seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point.
     
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-20-mike-pompeo-gov-mike-dewine/story?id=70478442
  125. @Steve Sailer
    Once again, why would those "closest to death" be expected to get infected first? Are people on death's door out skiing, riding the subway, shaking Tom Hanks' hand?

    It’s not that the ones “closest to death” are the ones getting infected. It’s that the ones “closest to death” are the ones dying.

    • Agree: Hail
  126. @Paleo Retiree
    Back in our Manhattan days, my wife and I would visit St. Louis often to see family. We were always amazed by how big, hefty and downright fat a lot of people in St. Louis were. We’d joke that we could both put on 30 pounds and still be considered slim in St. Louis.

    People in Manhattan walk a lot, they eat with care, and they’re among other slim people. Environment and expectations count for a lot. Who wants to be the one fattie at a book party or an art opening? You’d feel like a grotesque loser. Meanwhile a fattie in St. Louis has lots of company and can feel pretty normal.

    Of course, I suppose it could also be the case that the kinds of people who are prone to live in Manhattan are people who are already prone to being slim.

    I can tell you and you are wife are unattractive. Unattractive people dwell on their slimness as if it’s the tiniest bit impressive. Imagine the smugness you feel at being slim multipled by 100 and you will understand the smugness I (as a very attractive in shape person) would feel if I saw you at an art opening. What the fuck are those uggos doing here? The Chinese buffet is next door.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Say it all you want, fact is even the ugliest thin chick will get lots of male attention in the fatter parts of the country. You look so you can only see her from the neck down, and man, you've got a hot commodity there.

    I've let myself be dragged to a few art galleries, certainly not the most beautiful group of people.
  127. @JosephB

    A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws. But, it turns out, that having zero underlying conditions doesn’t add much to your life expectancy relative to having one.
     
    Steve, this comment is beneath you. First, as others have pointed out, the study has multiple flaws (ignoring nursing home victims, and (anti-) survivorship bias). Both of these issues jumped out quickly for many of us. Usually you're quicker on the uptake than that. I suspect emotion impacted your cognition.

    Second, I haven't seen a lot of Nietzschean Supermen that you're referring to. I suspect it's an attempt on your pat to denigrate those who have argued that the WuFlu's cost per lift is substantially lower than, for example, traffic deaths. It's quite possible to believe that and not see yourself as a superman.

    Steve is 6’3” and has a double chin. Do you know how hard it is to display signs of obesity at 6’3”. Steve is a self indulgent boomer- just like Mickey kaus they’ve convinced themselves that their heterodox political views has a confered a sort of saint hood on them that needs to be protected at any cost by society.

    • Replies: @Matra
    Sam so bitter.
  128. @Reg Cæsar
    I meant the plural of kudos.

    Since it’s from the Greek “Kydos,” wouldn’t it be “Kudoses”?

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Since it’s from the Greek “Kydos,” wouldn’t it be “Kudoses”?
     
    Octopus has octopodēs.
  129. @jbwilson24
    "A lot of the commentary by our society’s abundance of Nietzschean Supermen has been about how very few people have died who are, like them, wholly without physical flaws"

    What a weird characterization.

    As one of the heartless 'Supermen', all I am urging is that we let the virus sort out the strong from the weak. Never have I claimed that there is some magical race of Supermen without physical flaws.

    I begin to see why Muslim men despise white males. We had tough men in the 19th century, the sort who could roam around the bush in Tanzania and endure all sorts of torments while keeping their wit and intellect lively. These days the soggy whites in North America can barely watch a nature documentary without sobbing.

    Selective pressures that weed out the weak, foolish, unintelligent, irresponsible, psychopathic (etc) are good for a population. If a few others are tossed in, well, that's life.

    We should be MORE worried about dysgenic events like warfare. The European mode of war, like the welfare state, is hideously dysgenic. Historians write of the damage wrought to the German gene pool during the 30 years war, where the drop in average height and girth in recruits was noticeable over the course of the conflict. Then there is WW1, where the best young men in Europe went to their deaths for no good reason whatsoever.

    Obsessing over the effects of a mild virus on society is not only unmanly, it is irrational. Destroying the economy to save fogies and fatties is stupidity, particularly in light of the fact that we send young men to die in warfare all the time.

    We should be MORE worried about dysgenic events like warfare. The European mode of war, like the welfare state, is hideously dysgenic. Historians write of the damage wrought to the German gene pool during the 30 years war, where the drop in average height and girth in recruits was noticeable over the course of the conflict. Then there is WW1, where the best young men in Europe went to their deaths for no good reason whatsoever.

    I think it is prudent to take reasonable steps to rein the China virus in. Basically that means wearing masks in crowded public spaces (e.g. trains, bus, airplanes) and letting people know they should take their Vitamin D and zinc.

    But i’m on board with the thrust of your paragraph above.

    The critical issues that matter to the survival of America, and more broadly the West are:
    1) stopping mass immigration
    which utterly dwarfs all other issues, is truly existential and–
    way less time critical but nonetheless critical in the long run–
    2) restoring eugenic fertility.

    Everything else–including this virus–is essentially random noise that simply does not matter to the long run survival of the West .

    • Agree: Mark G.
  130. @Sam Haysom
    Steve is 6’3” and has a double chin. Do you know how hard it is to display signs of obesity at 6’3”. Steve is a self indulgent boomer- just like Mickey kaus they’ve convinced themselves that their heterodox political views has a confered a sort of saint hood on them that needs to be protected at any cost by society.

    Sam so bitter.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I bet Sam Haysom thought of himself as a "jock" in high school, frequently spoke against the "nerds," while the actual jocks laughed at him as a fat oaf. Now those nerds boss Sam Haysom around and he's enraged at the loss of his (imagined) status.

    The whole phenomenon of coronavirus denial has a strong whiff of C-student rage about it.
  131. @HallParvey

    I fear the lockdown will prove more lethal in the long run than the virus itself.
     
    Possibly. But the lockdown has shown us that there are some jobs that are not essential. It has also shown us that there are jobs that are definitely essential. Like toilet paper producers.

    After the fading of the virus and it's effects, there will need to be some major restructuring of industry and what it produces.

    Just as the federal government is the financier of both the Military Industrial Complex and the even more expensive Medical Industrial Complex, it must be ready to initiate a new Marshall Plan for sponsoring the development of American Industry that produces the stuff that we have been importing from China.

    That is going to require the printing of a large amount of money. Can you say, Inflation.

    Debt and the Fed scam will prove to be the end of this nation.

  132. @Semperluctor
    The arithmetical error was not grievous; Steve addressed it tactfully and Mr. Anon acknowledged it with good grace.
    You are piling on, which is unseemly, and you should not throw stones when you live in a glasshouse.
    To wit: the word ‘stigmata’ is a plural noun, the singular being the word ‘stigma’.
    Bad arithmetic (as a singular noun) is the stigma, while bad arithmetic as a plural noun (not common) are the stigmata of an exploited, underpaid troll.
    You have outed yourself. Try a pinch of kindness next time you feel ornery.

    Sophomoric pedantry is the stigmata of the Prime Number One Grade A Internet Asshole.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    Sophomoric pedantry is the stigmata of the Prime Number One Grade A Internet Asshole.
     
    Your self-assessment is duly noted.
  133. utu says:
    @leterip
    Off topic a bit - but another interesting pre-print from Medrxiv. Sweden's epidemiologists have stated that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves. I did not understood the basis for this statement. This preprint provides an explanation.

    People vary in their inherent susceptibility to infectious disease. This variability differs for each disease. The higher it is for Covid, the better.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1

    As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases.
     
    A very big positive impact this article discusses; is that if the variation in susceptibility is high to average for Covid, the herd immunity % can be quite low say 15%-40%.

    It appears that no one knows what the variation in susceptibility is; but experts appeared to have modeled based on the worst case of no variation at all. Perhaps this is one reason models have been wildly pessimistic.

    Thanks for the paper. This is true that Sweden’s epidemiologists were saying that the lethality of the virus will decline over time because the most susceptible will tend to die in the first waves. It is false. The virus has no knowledge who is more susceptible and furthermore in sane and decent society the most susceptible like the elderly will be protected and guarded the most. But it is true that susceptibility differs in population.

    What the paper by Gomes et al. is about is that in heterogenous society there are subpopulations with higher connectivity. They will get infected first because they mingle a lot and thus they are both susceptible more and they are the spreaders. They are responsible for R0 in the initial stage of epidemic. But once they get infected and when they recover or die they no longer spread the disease and the remaining population has lower connectivity and thus R0 will be smaller. This leads them to conclusion that the threshold for the herd immunity will be lower as it is not determined by the initial R0 but by those who have lower connectivity.

  134. @Anon
    Covid-19 death rates of those with low Vitamin D levels are high. It's not just preexisting conditions, but your nutrition and race. I've been looking at death rates in US states that border Canada and those states with high black populations have close to 2x the death rates of those border states with a low number of blacks. Blacks in northern latitudes have trouble getting enough Vitamin D in their skin.

    Northern whites also have a lot of winter outdoor activities that blacks aren't interested in. From example skiing, snowmobiling, skating, shoveling snow, etc. White kids like to play in snow, build snowmen and snowforts, and go sledding. I'm not sure how popular the latter are among blacks. Walking the dog in winter can give the walker some Vitamin D. I have the impression that poor blacks just let the dog go in the yard rather than walk it, whatever the season is.

    To give you an idea of how great this difference is, look at these figures from these two states:

    Current data from Montana:

    Total positive cases: 455
    Total recovered: 404
    Deaths: 16
    Death rate: 3.5%

    Current data from Michigan:

    Total positive cases: 43,754
    Total recovered: 15,659
    Deaths: 4049
    Death rate: 9.25%

    Data from the city of Detroit:

    Total positive cases: 9385
    Total deaths: 1088
    Death rate: 11.59%

    Just for comparison, here's data from Alaska:

    Total positive cases: 368
    Total recovered: 262
    Deaths: 9
    Death rate: 2.44%

    Alaska, in fact, has one of the lowest death rates in all the US states. Maybe they stay more fit in winter.

    Alaska has the one of the lowest median age of any state, behind only Utah and DC. Alaska is a great place for a young person to earn a premium wage with less taxes, but few see it as a desirable place to retire.

  135. @Steve Sailer
    I've only been to Manhattan and Brooklyn in the last 29 years. It used to be that Los Angeles had the best looking women on average, comparable to Milan, but over the last decade, it's more likely that Lower Manhattan has pulled ahead.

    Being fat in NYC or DC is regarded as low class, just like cigarette smoking. But people like this, and much much worse, are not an uncommon sight in the parts of flyover country that I have been to, and not just the elderly.

    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
    They're both fit and active popular porn stars.
  136. It’s a particularly American disease: this notion that everything is up for debate, and everyone gets an opinion in these debates. I think it’s relatively recent, certainly the founding fathers wouldn’t have believed it. What will be the next thing we decided to open up for “debate?” I suggest civil engineering. Next time your town wants to build a bridge, allow anyone to submit a design and then have a debate on which to build. Several geniuses in these comments condemn what they call “rule by experts.” How can you defend a situation in which only engineers get to submit designs?

    We need to go on the offensive and state it clearly: there are some things which are not up for debate. Undeniable truths exist. The Earth is round and more than 6,000 years old. Homeopathy does not work. Professional wrestling is not real.

    • Troll: Manfred Arcane
  137. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    Average age of kungflu decedent is 80.

    Average health of kungflu decedent was absolutely shitty - they weren't living another 10 months, never mind 10 years.

    This is a hoax.

    Stay Home Save Lives.... lives scarcely worth living anymore since Democratic governors forcibly and illegally, without due process, disemployed millions.

    Life is full of risks - it's past time for the young to live a full and rich life whilst bedshitters hide in their closets, Sailer. If that's even your real name - or maybe you don't know your bio parents's names.

    Average age of kungflu decedent is 80. This is a hoax.

    Deaths caused by COVID-19, by place of death, United States (Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/28/2020):

    85 and over – 11,458 = 31%
    75 to 84 – 10,196 = 27%
    65 to 74 – 8,001 = 21%
    0 to 64 – 7,653 = 21%

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

    Are these people “at death’s door”?

  138. @Anon
    Covid-19 death rates of those with low Vitamin D levels are high. It's not just preexisting conditions, but your nutrition and race. I've been looking at death rates in US states that border Canada and those states with high black populations have close to 2x the death rates of those border states with a low number of blacks. Blacks in northern latitudes have trouble getting enough Vitamin D in their skin.

    Northern whites also have a lot of winter outdoor activities that blacks aren't interested in. From example skiing, snowmobiling, skating, shoveling snow, etc. White kids like to play in snow, build snowmen and snowforts, and go sledding. I'm not sure how popular the latter are among blacks. Walking the dog in winter can give the walker some Vitamin D. I have the impression that poor blacks just let the dog go in the yard rather than walk it, whatever the season is.

    To give you an idea of how great this difference is, look at these figures from these two states:

    Current data from Montana:

    Total positive cases: 455
    Total recovered: 404
    Deaths: 16
    Death rate: 3.5%

    Current data from Michigan:

    Total positive cases: 43,754
    Total recovered: 15,659
    Deaths: 4049
    Death rate: 9.25%

    Data from the city of Detroit:

    Total positive cases: 9385
    Total deaths: 1088
    Death rate: 11.59%

    Just for comparison, here's data from Alaska:

    Total positive cases: 368
    Total recovered: 262
    Deaths: 9
    Death rate: 2.44%

    Alaska, in fact, has one of the lowest death rates in all the US states. Maybe they stay more fit in winter.

    Vitamin D status and covid-19 interactions:

  139. About an hour ago I found out that a former co-worker died of the virus. I don’t know how old he was, but I’d guess late 60’s, maybe 70. That seems young to die. But consider, when I left that job six months ago he had been out for some time due to a heart attack, as far as I know he hadn’t returned, and a couple of years ago he had had to give up driving because he had lost much of the feeling in his feet to diabetes.
    I’m going to guess that a very high proportion of the under-80 deaths involve people in similar health circumstances.

  140. @Reg Cæsar
    I meant the plural of kudos.

    Sorry, I misunderstood you.
    The singular noun is kudo.
    ‘He received a kudo from his teacher for his dissertation on Matisse’.
    The plural noun is kudos.
    ‘She received kudos and a book contract for her dissertation on Renoir’.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    Δεν πιστεύω ότι αυτό είναι σωστό. Δεν υπάρχει τέτοιο πράγμα ως "kudo".
  141. @obwandiyag
    Thank you thank you thank you.

    You just revealed the "comorbidity--OK boomers--they were already dying anyway" crowd" for the utter scum they are.

    I knew, for instance, 90-year-olds who had 5 to 10 more years left in their lives, years in which they were completely mentally functioning, and in which, while they did have to visit the doctors a bit much, they still managed to have some fun, even if only it was watching a good ball game.

    I hate you scum for wanting to take that away from them.

    Since spectator sports have been #canceled, if they want to watch a good ball game now, they’ll be out of luck unless they want to see a rebroadcast.

  142. @Mr McKenna
    NYS or NYC? Most of NYS is middle-America, as I'm sure you know.

    Otherwise: Damn there are a lot of fatties in this country.

    Otherwise: Damn there are a lot of fatties in this country.

    We will bury you … underneath our mounds of flab.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    Britain's proposing that fatties should be locked up at home and not allowed out in public! Who says this China Virus is a bad thing??

    https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/obese-brits-may-be-forced-to-stay-home-after-lockdown-lifted/
  143. @Semperluctor
    Sorry, I misunderstood you.
    The singular noun is kudo.
    ‘He received a kudo from his teacher for his dissertation on Matisse’.
    The plural noun is kudos.
    ‘She received kudos and a book contract for her dissertation on Renoir’.

    Δεν πιστεύω ότι αυτό είναι σωστό. Δεν υπάρχει τέτοιο πράγμα ως “kudo”.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    Den exo ena elliniko keyboard, kai eimai geros, den boro na matho.
    Kudo einai oi sosti lexi.
    Ena kudo, dio kudos.
    , @Wielgus
    Δεν νομίζω ότι το κῦδος έχει πληθυντικό.
  144. @Redman
    Since it's from the Greek "Kydos," wouldn't it be "Kudoses"?

    Since it’s from the Greek “Kydos,” wouldn’t it be “Kudoses”?

    Octopus has octopodēs.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
    Sorry, my other comment did not work out well, I pressed send too soon by mistake.
    Yes, good point, kydos is the Greek root word, but I think that kydos is a singular noun, meaning fame or glory. It was not used in a plural sense in Greek.
    I don’t know how the English usage came about, but if taken directly, Kudos would be the singular form and there would be no plural form, just as there is no plural form for fame, we do not say much fames were heaped upon Nelson. in Greek the plural form, if there were one, would be kydai, but I think that is wrong, there was no plural form.
    Anyhow, I have seen Kudo, used in the singular, to distinguish it from kudos; I think on reflection that this is and I am wrong, even if used, as kydos is a singular noun. Then again, people say ‘the oi polloi’ which of course is wrong, as it means the the many, but once one language borrows from another, who’s to say what the rules are for the borrowing. OT, my favorities are capote anglaise and French letter. These perfectly capture the mutual disdain and dislike.
  145. @res
    The combination of simulation and modeling along with a strong agenda makes me nervous. It is too easy to goose the model to support your agenda.

    I'm not motivated to dig into this one right now, but your point seems like the biggest issue.

    I also think it is worth noting that one of those preexisting conditions is not like the others (emphasis mine) in terms of severity. This might explain the observation about people with only one preexisting condition not doing so badly. It would help if they broke down the # preexisting condition data by particular conditions and also provided prevalences for the total populations in each age group. Say give percentages of which prexisting condition existed for the "just one" cases.

    the proportion with each LTC was as follows:- ischaemic heart disease 27.8%, atrial fibrillation 23.7%, heart failure 17.1%, stroke 11.3%, hypertension 73%, diabetes 31.3%, dementia 14.5%, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 16.7%, active cancer in the past 5 years 17.3%, chronic liver disease 4.1%, chronic renal failure 22.2%. The ISS report also presented the proportion of patients who died with each of the following multimorbidity counts: 0 (2.1%), 1 (21.3%), 2 (25.9%) and ≥3 (50.7%).
     
    How many people do you think had one of the other LTCs without having hypertension?

    I have trouble reconciling the difference in 0/1 LTC mortality rates with the quoted difference in YLL, but I suppose if the 1 LTC condition strongly correlates with age (as hypertension does) it is possible.

    Got sucked in a bit. This looks important.

    The coefficients for the survival models are shown in the supplementary appendix. Briefly, all LTCs other than hypertension were associated with increased mortality (in a model including 10 other LTCs), and for each LTC the association with mortality was attenuated as the baseline age increased.

     

    As I said, one LTC is not like the others. I have been unable to find the supplementary appendix. Perhaps they mean this?
    https://github.com/dmcalli2/covid19_yll_final/blob/master/Scripts/Addendum.md

    This is worth a look: Table A2 Hazard ratios at selected ages estimated separately for men and women having mutually adjusted for all other variables included in the model

    Their discussion of care homes looks highly relevant.

    Nonetheless, we strongly agree that care home residents, are a special population, in whom more severe disease, multimorbidity and frailty are likely to be commoner. We also agree that there are good biological reasons for suspecting that care home residents may be over-represented among COVID-19 deaths compared to other causes of death (because it is an infectious disease and people in care homes are in a communal residence), and that the inclusion of more care home residents would likely have lowered the YLL in our analyses. Therefore, we would argue that the best approach for determining life expectancy in this group would be to estimate it using data which includes care home residency status.
     
    Probably worth looking through the Strengths and limitations section of the paper itself. Some excerpts.

    However, although we had data for eleven common and important LTCs, we did not have markers of underlying disease severity among those who died. Severity of the underlying LTC has considerable impact on life expectancy28. Moreover, we had no data for rarer severe LTCs, which may nonetheless be common among those who die from COVID-19 at younger ages. As such, the attenuation of YLL following adjustment for LTCs may be an underestimate. However, we think that this effect is unlikely to be substantial enough to reduce YLL to the orders of magnitude suggested by some commentators.
     

    We did not have access to large quantities of individual-level data with which to estimate the prevalence of different combinations of LTCs.
    ...
    This model did not fully converge and had wide posteriors (indicating substantial uncertainty) for the correlation between LTCs.
     
    So much for my idea above about giving details of which LTCs were represented in the 1 LTC cases.

    Here is a non-paywalled popular article about this paper:
    https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25448/20200424/covid-19-patients-losing-13-years-lives-average-study.htm

    And a non-PDF link to the full text with some useful comments.
    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    The combination of simulation and modeling along with a strong agenda makes me nervous. It is too easy to goose the model to support your agenda.

    Hmm, like catastrophic anthropogenic global warming? I share your concern.

  146. @obwandiyag
    Sophomoric pedantry is the stigmata of the Prime Number One Grade A Internet Asshole.

    Sophomoric pedantry is the stigmata of the Prime Number One Grade A Internet Asshole.

    Your self-assessment is duly noted.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    Calling somebody else what you are is Classic Number #1 stupid asshole on the internet "comeback."

    "Oh, I'm not so what are you. Nyanyanyanya-nyanya."

    You're not even a sophomoric pedant. You are too stupid.
  147. @Jim Don Bob
    Being fat in NYC or DC is regarded as low class, just like cigarette smoking. But people like this, and much much worse, are not an uncommon sight in the parts of flyover country that I have been to, and not just the elderly.

    https://www.steamtrainfitness.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Overweight-seniors-walking.jpg

    They’re both fit and active popular porn stars.

  148. Recently it has become more difficult to survive into ripe old age.
    Multiple co-morbidities, once manageable, but now… not so much.
    That’s not going away, any more than SARS-CoV-2 is going away.

  149. @Hypnotoad666
    CDC says 27.5% of New Yorkers are obese, 34.1% of Hoosiers are obese. https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html

    According to the CDC's Adult Obesity Prevalence Map, it appears as though obesity flows downstream through the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.

    https://images.procon.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018-us-obesity-map.jpg

    More evidence that Colorado has replaced California as the most annoying state.

    Asians, i.e., Japanese, Chinese, Philippines, etc, greatly outnumber the Bruddah Iz demographic.

    DC is no longer a “chocolate city”, but loaded with white hipsters. Any excuse for the 23rd Amendment is long gone. Repeal it.

  150. @HallParvey

    I fear the lockdown will prove more lethal in the long run than the virus itself.
     
    Possibly. But the lockdown has shown us that there are some jobs that are not essential. It has also shown us that there are jobs that are definitely essential. Like toilet paper producers.

    After the fading of the virus and it's effects, there will need to be some major restructuring of industry and what it produces.

    Just as the federal government is the financier of both the Military Industrial Complex and the even more expensive Medical Industrial Complex, it must be ready to initiate a new Marshall Plan for sponsoring the development of American Industry that produces the stuff that we have been importing from China.

    That is going to require the printing of a large amount of money. Can you say, Inflation.

    “ it must be ready to initiate a new Marshall Plan for sponsoring the development of American Industry that produces the stuff that we have been importing from China.”

    Maybe if Trump wins. Anyone else and it’s right back to globalism, full blast.

  151. @Reg Cæsar
    Δεν πιστεύω ότι αυτό είναι σωστό. Δεν υπάρχει τέτοιο πράγμα ως "kudo".

    Den exo ena elliniko keyboard, kai eimai geros, den boro na matho.
    Kudo einai oi sosti lexi.
    Ena kudo, dio kudos.

  152. @Charles Erwin Wilson Three

    Sophomoric pedantry is the stigmata of the Prime Number One Grade A Internet Asshole.
     
    Your self-assessment is duly noted.

    Calling somebody else what you are is Classic Number #1 stupid asshole on the internet “comeback.”

    “Oh, I’m not so what are you. Nyanyanyanya-nyanya.”

    You’re not even a sophomoric pedant. You are too stupid.

  153. @Reg Cæsar

    Since it’s from the Greek “Kydos,” wouldn’t it be “Kudoses”?
     
    Octopus has octopodēs.

    Sorry, my other comment did not work out well, I pressed send too soon by mistake.
    Yes, good point, kydos is the Greek root word, but I think that kydos is a singular noun, meaning fame or glory. It was not used in a plural sense in Greek.
    I don’t know how the English usage came about, but if taken directly, Kudos would be the singular form and there would be no plural form, just as there is no plural form for fame, we do not say much fames were heaped upon Nelson. in Greek the plural form, if there were one, would be kydai, but I think that is wrong, there was no plural form.
    Anyhow, I have seen Kudo, used in the singular, to distinguish it from kudos; I think on reflection that this is and I am wrong, even if used, as kydos is a singular noun. Then again, people say ‘the oi polloi’ which of course is wrong, as it means the the many, but once one language borrows from another, who’s to say what the rules are for the borrowing. OT, my favorities are capote anglaise and French letter. These perfectly capture the mutual disdain and dislike.

  154. @Stephen Dodge
    BTW, Bayesian analysis supports my belief that, in this ongoing case study provided by the denizens of Wuhan, I may have said ignorant things too.

    From the beginning I have said that this little coronavirus, enhanced or not, descends from billions of generations of tricky little coronaviri (coronavirorum in the genitive plural), each generation tricky enough to support a subsequent generation, with the goal (mathematical, not teleological) of rejoicing every once in a while in a spectacularly successful generation. Speaking as a human being to fellow human beings, smugness is far from the most appropriate reaction to the current triumph of the little miscreants.

    and yes, I know that the WHO calls the disease and the disease vector.
    I will have no truck with the WHO.

  155. Anonymous[194] • Disclaimer says:
    @Matra
    Sam so bitter.

    I bet Sam Haysom thought of himself as a “jock” in high school, frequently spoke against the “nerds,” while the actual jocks laughed at him as a fat oaf. Now those nerds boss Sam Haysom around and he’s enraged at the loss of his (imagined) status.

    The whole phenomenon of coronavirus denial has a strong whiff of C-student rage about it.

    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    People who peak at an early age tend to be pretty bitter.

    Me, I peaked in the latter half of elementary school. My life crashed into a brick wall shortly after I turned 11. By the age of 14, I was a bloated, acne-ridden has-been, the punchline to a cruel joke.

    But being ignored, ostracized, and humiliated during my bleak adolescence and early adulthood was, in the long run, a positive experience. It molded me into the selfish, uncaring asshole that I am today. :D

    The nice thing about life is that this world is infested with so many miserable creatures who are wholly unworthy of anyone's loyalty, admiration, and respect. No matter how badly I screw up in life, no matter how many people hold me in contempt and look upon me with disgust, I can always find some hopeless loser to whom I can feel superior. It makes me all warm and fuzzy inside to know that there are so many dismal failures crawling around. As for those who thumb their noses at me, I can write them off as angry, insecure pricks bitter about their own shortcomings.

    As they say, happiness belongs to those who want, need, and expect nothing. I never ask anything of anyone, and I'm never disappointed.

    Note to diabetics: I apologize for the sugary sentimentality of this uplifting message. But sometimes life really is just a sweet-smelling basket of lollipops and roses.
  156. Anonymous[116] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sam Haysom
    I can tell you and you are wife are unattractive. Unattractive people dwell on their slimness as if it’s the tiniest bit impressive. Imagine the smugness you feel at being slim multipled by 100 and you will understand the smugness I (as a very attractive in shape person) would feel if I saw you at an art opening. What the fuck are those uggos doing here? The Chinese buffet is next door.

    Say it all you want, fact is even the ugliest thin chick will get lots of male attention in the fatter parts of the country. You look so you can only see her from the neck down, and man, you’ve got a hot commodity there.

    I’ve let myself be dragged to a few art galleries, certainly not the most beautiful group of people.

  157. Rahan says:

    On Nietzsche, I would like to use this opportunity to remind people that he was:
    a) Sane at the start
    b) Weird in the middle
    c) Sane again by the end

    As he starts out with “the Birth of Tragedy”, he’s magnificent. Young and choppy and sentimental, but magnificent. Then he goes into a long period of mania, which is what he is most known for by people with low capacity for nuanse. Then later, when he gets better, he writes in works like “Contra Wagner” literally “Yeah, I went bit intot he deep end back then, but now I got better, whew.”

    For those who like “muscular truck racing on meth” Nietzsche, the middle period is probably the best reading. For those who prefer nuanse, dry humor, and a more balanced approach to the cosmos–the early stuff from before the mania and the late stuff after the mania are the better choice.

  158. Hail says: • Website
    @Polynikes
    Some of what Jack D said, but if I’m reading the description right it is somewhat unintuitive. Apparently, some people are better at warding off the virus from entering the body. You’re body has natural defenses to keep things out. I’m no doctor, but in biology we’re taught the basic function of the parts of the nose—nose hair helps keep debris out and cilia help move mucus and things out of the nose. Just an example...I’m not suggesting the above is key to this virus.

    So somehow older people are not only more susceptible to the effects of this virus but also to the virus entering the body and “taking hold” in the first place. That’s my understanding of the theory and it initially piqued my interest when i watched the first video of the Swedish expert.

    If that’s the case younger healthier people will still eventually be infected as the virus becomes more prevalent, but they’re missing big parts of the early waves. Maybe it coincides with some of the things we’ve read about viral load? I don’t know. I’d like to hear the Swedish experts expound a little.

    some people are better at warding off the virus from entering the body

    I’d say your description is close to the mark but should be tweaked as follows:

    It’s not that the virus never enters the body at all for those with strong immune systems and children, it’s that the virus (and in fact any virus of this kind) is easily batted off once in the system in the majority of cases.

    I believe the randomized population studies we have suggest the following are ballpark numbers on all-population reactions to this flu strain:

    – 85% who get the virus never get any symptoms, or symptoms almost too mild to notice (hardly off the baseline average for “how do you feel day to day, week to week,” say);
    – 13% get ‘flu’ symptoms that require no treatment, and
    – 2% have more serious symptoms; most of these seek treatment, becoming the “confirmed positives;” a small portion of these die (up to 2% of those with serious symptoms are said to be dying, 2% of the 2%).

    Of the last group (the most serious 2% of all-population positives), about 3.5% have so far entered ICUs in the case of Sweden.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    – 85% who get the virus never get any symptoms, or symptoms almost too mild to notice (hardly off the baseline average for “how do you feel day to day, week to week,” say);
    – 13% get ‘flu’ symptoms that require no treatment, and
    – 2% have more serious symptoms; most of these seek treatment, becoming the “confirmed positives;” a small portion of these die (up to 2% of those with serious symptoms are said to be dying, 2% of the 2%).
     
    Your concept is right but your numbers are off. Fairly early in the epidemic, someone here mentioned the old 80/20 rule and predicted that it would apply to the Wuhan Virus.

    So you get

    – 80% who get the virus never get any symptoms, or symptoms almost too mild to notice ;

    – 20% get ‘flu’ symptoms

    80% of those (16% of population) recover on their own, and

    – 20% (4% of pop.) have more serious symptoms which may require hospitalization;

    80% of those (3.2% of population) survive

    - 20% of the serious cases (.8% of population) die.

    .8% is somewhere in the ballpark of the death rate from this disease. (Maybe it's only .4% and the splits are 83/17 or something and not precisely 80/20.)

    Your 2% of 2% (.04% of population) is WAY too low. No one thinks that the actual death rate is .04%. If that was true, then 250% of the New York population would have already been infected based upon the # of people who have already died.
  159. anonymous[306] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot
    The guardian’s claim Pompeo was “confused” is not supported by the transcript.

    The virus was found in a bat, modified to infect human beings as part of the lab’s research (not to make a weapon specifically), and then escaped because of typically shoddy Chinese safety and quality control practices.

    Seriously, can anyone point to ANY evidence against this?

    Transcript

    RADDATZ: Do you believe it was manmade or genetically modified?

    POMPEO: Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.

    RADDATZ: Your — your Office of the DNI says the consensus, the scientific consensus was not manmade or genetically modified.

    POMPEO: That’s right. I — I — I agree with that. Yes. I’ve — I’ve seen their analysis. I’ve seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-20-mike-pompeo-gov-mike-dewine/story?id=70478442

  160. @Hail

    some people are better at warding off the virus from entering the body
     
    I'd say your description is close to the mark but should be tweaked as follows:

    It's not that the virus never enters the body at all for those with strong immune systems and children, it's that the virus (and in fact any virus of this kind) is easily batted off once in the system in the majority of cases.

    I believe the randomized population studies we have suggest the following are ballpark numbers on all-population reactions to this flu strain:

    - 85% who get the virus never get any symptoms, or symptoms almost too mild to notice (hardly off the baseline average for "how do you feel day to day, week to week," say);
    - 13% get 'flu' symptoms that require no treatment, and
    - 2% have more serious symptoms; most of these seek treatment, becoming the "confirmed positives;" a small portion of these die (up to 2% of those with serious symptoms are said to be dying, 2% of the 2%).

    Of the last group (the most serious 2% of all-population positives), about 3.5% have so far entered ICUs in the case of Sweden.

    – 85% who get the virus never get any symptoms, or symptoms almost too mild to notice (hardly off the baseline average for “how do you feel day to day, week to week,” say);
    – 13% get ‘flu’ symptoms that require no treatment, and
    – 2% have more serious symptoms; most of these seek treatment, becoming the “confirmed positives;” a small portion of these die (up to 2% of those with serious symptoms are said to be dying, 2% of the 2%).

    Your concept is right but your numbers are off. Fairly early in the epidemic, someone here mentioned the old 80/20 rule and predicted that it would apply to the Wuhan Virus.

    So you get

    – 80% who get the virus never get any symptoms, or symptoms almost too mild to notice ;

    – 20% get ‘flu’ symptoms

    80% of those (16% of population) recover on their own, and

    – 20% (4% of pop.) have more serious symptoms which may require hospitalization;

    80% of those (3.2% of population) survive

    – 20% of the serious cases (.8% of population) die.

    .8% is somewhere in the ballpark of the death rate from this disease. (Maybe it’s only .4% and the splits are 83/17 or something and not precisely 80/20.)

    Your 2% of 2% (.04% of population) is WAY too low. No one thinks that the actual death rate is .04%. If that was true, then 250% of the New York population would have already been infected based upon the # of people who have already died.

  161. @Redman
    I think what Hail and others are saying is that the virus goes hard after those most vulnerable. To wit, those without a vigorous primary immune system, who tend to be old and/or have comorbidities.

    The virus is like a band of robbers trying to get in the front door protected by security guards (the primary immune system). The old and sick people either have no security guards, or the guards are unarmed. When the robbers run out of banks without security (or guns) they run out of legitimate targets and have to move on to something else.

    During the early stages of the epidemic, the virus is able to find a lot of weak targets (those in nursing homes, hospice care, etc.). But as time passes, it is left with mostly only hard targets that lead to it burning out on its own. I'm not a scientist, but this is how I'm interpreting the epidemiological hypothesis.

    Maybe Woody Allen could reconfigure this scene. But not for at least a couple of years....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzfuRV462_I

    “I’m a graduate of New York University.”
    “We’re gonna make it.”

  162. @Reg Cæsar
    Δεν πιστεύω ότι αυτό είναι σωστό. Δεν υπάρχει τέτοιο πράγμα ως "kudo".

    Δεν νομίζω ότι το κῦδος έχει πληθυντικό.

  163. @Stan Adams

    Otherwise: Damn there are a lot of fatties in this country.
     
    We will bury you ... underneath our mounds of flab.

    Britain’s proposing that fatties should be locked up at home and not allowed out in public! Who says this China Virus is a bad thing??

    https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/obese-brits-may-be-forced-to-stay-home-after-lockdown-lifted/

    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    Living in a police state isn't too bad, so long as the system discriminates mainly against the ugly and the infirm.
  164. @Mr McKenna
    Britain's proposing that fatties should be locked up at home and not allowed out in public! Who says this China Virus is a bad thing??

    https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/obese-brits-may-be-forced-to-stay-home-after-lockdown-lifted/

    Living in a police state isn’t too bad, so long as the system discriminates mainly against the ugly and the infirm.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    Aww crap, there's no way to signify LOL and AGREE on the same comment.
  165. @Anonymous
    I bet Sam Haysom thought of himself as a "jock" in high school, frequently spoke against the "nerds," while the actual jocks laughed at him as a fat oaf. Now those nerds boss Sam Haysom around and he's enraged at the loss of his (imagined) status.

    The whole phenomenon of coronavirus denial has a strong whiff of C-student rage about it.

    People who peak at an early age tend to be pretty bitter.

    Me, I peaked in the latter half of elementary school. My life crashed into a brick wall shortly after I turned 11. By the age of 14, I was a bloated, acne-ridden has-been, the punchline to a cruel joke.

    But being ignored, ostracized, and humiliated during my bleak adolescence and early adulthood was, in the long run, a positive experience. It molded me into the selfish, uncaring asshole that I am today. 😀

    The nice thing about life is that this world is infested with so many miserable creatures who are wholly unworthy of anyone’s loyalty, admiration, and respect. No matter how badly I screw up in life, no matter how many people hold me in contempt and look upon me with disgust, I can always find some hopeless loser to whom I can feel superior. It makes me all warm and fuzzy inside to know that there are so many dismal failures crawling around. As for those who thumb their noses at me, I can write them off as angry, insecure pricks bitter about their own shortcomings.

    As they say, happiness belongs to those who want, need, and expect nothing. I never ask anything of anyone, and I’m never disappointed.

    Note to diabetics: I apologize for the sugary sentimentality of this uplifting message. But sometimes life really is just a sweet-smelling basket of lollipops and roses.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    You don't live in Huntington, Long Island, do you? I figure it's unlikely since your name is Adams but some people use pseudonyms after all.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/demographics-of-new-york-hospitalized/#comment-3880891
  166. @Peter Frost
    Are they missing some nursing home and at-home deaths?

    Undercounting and reporting delays are worse for at-home deaths than for nursing home deaths. If anything, the statistics exaggerate the importance of nursing home deaths.


    the death number is 37,308. But World Health Odometer says we’re over 60,000. What’s the scoop?

    The death toll is now 68,000 in the U.S. The problem here is the delay in reporting, coding, and analyzing the data.

    That doesn’t account for nursing home residents who get transferred to hospitals and die there.

    That factor is smaller for nursing home residents than for at-home seniors of the same age. If you adjust everything for that factor, nursing home deaths become less important, not more important.

    I’m skeptical that it would be 18% in the U.S. but 50% in Europe.

    Differences in culture. We see the same difference in Canada. In Quebec, seniors are placed in nursing homes at a younger age than in the rest of Canada. This is largely because Quebec is much more post-Christian, and there isn't the same sense of duty toward elderly parents. Also, there may be no surviving children to take care of them.

    You can't argue both ways. In Europe, more people die in nursing homes because seniors are placed there at an earlier age. So their remaining life expectancy is longer.

    Differences in culture.

    “David C. Grabowski, who studies nursing homes at Harvard University, told the New York Times that by the time the pandemic has run its course in America, nursing home deaths will account for about half of all coronavirus fatalities nationwide.”

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/blows-up-like-wildfire-experts-predict-half-of-us-coronavirus-deaths-will-happen-in-nursing-homes

  167. @Stan Adams
    Living in a police state isn't too bad, so long as the system discriminates mainly against the ugly and the infirm.

    Aww crap, there’s no way to signify LOL and AGREE on the same comment.

  168. @Stan Adams
    People who peak at an early age tend to be pretty bitter.

    Me, I peaked in the latter half of elementary school. My life crashed into a brick wall shortly after I turned 11. By the age of 14, I was a bloated, acne-ridden has-been, the punchline to a cruel joke.

    But being ignored, ostracized, and humiliated during my bleak adolescence and early adulthood was, in the long run, a positive experience. It molded me into the selfish, uncaring asshole that I am today. :D

    The nice thing about life is that this world is infested with so many miserable creatures who are wholly unworthy of anyone's loyalty, admiration, and respect. No matter how badly I screw up in life, no matter how many people hold me in contempt and look upon me with disgust, I can always find some hopeless loser to whom I can feel superior. It makes me all warm and fuzzy inside to know that there are so many dismal failures crawling around. As for those who thumb their noses at me, I can write them off as angry, insecure pricks bitter about their own shortcomings.

    As they say, happiness belongs to those who want, need, and expect nothing. I never ask anything of anyone, and I'm never disappointed.

    Note to diabetics: I apologize for the sugary sentimentality of this uplifting message. But sometimes life really is just a sweet-smelling basket of lollipops and roses.

    You don’t live in Huntington, Long Island, do you? I figure it’s unlikely since your name is Adams but some people use pseudonyms after all.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/demographics-of-new-york-hospitalized/#comment-3880891

    • Replies: @Stan Adams
    I live in the Miami area. Stan Adams is a pseudonym, yes.
  169. @Mr McKenna
    You don't live in Huntington, Long Island, do you? I figure it's unlikely since your name is Adams but some people use pseudonyms after all.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/demographics-of-new-york-hospitalized/#comment-3880891

    I live in the Miami area. Stan Adams is a pseudonym, yes.

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