The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
Italian Mountain Town of Ortesei at 49% Already Infected
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

From Il Messaggero, via Google Translate about the Italian (but Ladin-speaking) town of Ortisei in the beautiful Dolomite Alps of South Tyrol.

Coronavirus, here is the miracle of Ortisei in Val Gardena: a partial immunity of flock has already been acquired
ITALY
Saturday 18 April 2020

A splendid place, among the most enchanting in Italy. And that now could acquire further charm as a holiday resort for this summer, which promises to be difficult for those few who will be lucky enough to travel. Because 49% of the population of Ortisei, in Val Gardena , is immune to coronavirus . The discovery was made by Dr. Simon Kostner who, as a volunteer, is carrying out serological tests in the “Balance” health and wellness center of a hotel in the heart of the postcard country. The mountain resort, historic destination for summer and winter holidays, has already acquired a partial immunity of flock against the virus. 456 people between the ages of 20 and 59 were tested and the result was surprising: 49 percent tested positive. The tests had been started for the hotel staff, then they were extended to the population with an expense contribution of 30 euros per person. Perhaps, even unconsciously, these people contracted Covid-19 , as two thirds of those tested said they never had symptoms.

Ortisei is in the Val Gardena, which is said to be majority Ladin speaking. Ladin is, apparently, a sort of Hillbilly Latin related to Romansch in Switzerland. The town is known as Urtijëi in Ladin and St. Ulrich in German.

South Tyrol is the basically Austrian region that Mussolini and the other Italians constantly tried to conquer during the Great War. Wikipedia explains:

According to 2014 data based on the 2011 census, 62.3% of the population speaks German (Standard German in the written form and an Austro-Bavarian dialect in the spoken form); 23.4% of the population speaks Italian, mainly in and around the two largest cities (Bolzano and Merano); 4.1% speaks Ladin, a Rhaeto-Romance language; 10.2% of the population (mainly recent immigrants) speaks another language as first language.

A representative Italian from the South Tyrol is Reinhold Messner, perhaps the greatest mountain climber of all time.

Austria, unlike Italy, has done impressively well fighting CV.

Unfortunately, I can’t find anything about deaths in this town.

Also, I haven’t seen this 49% figure in any other articles. So who knows how much validity to grant this one article?

 
Hide 120 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    Not enough details: deaths, cases confirmed by PCR, total PCR tests, type and manufacturer of antibody test (some are rumored to give positive reaction in people exposed to coronaviruses that cause common cold.

    But if 49% is true, this is where it gets interesting: ought to keep PCR testing of those non-immune to figure out where the herd immunity point is.

  2. Singapore: 9,125 positives, 11 deaths

    • Agree: JMcG
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I'm suspicious to Chinese honesty about data.
    , @Alexander Turok
    They must be doing something different than most of the world. What is it? Possibilities:

    1. More testing which is find more mild cases other countries are missing.

    2. More testing which is finding false positives.

    3. Lower viral load in initial infections, perhaps due to climate.

    4. Much better care for the afflicted.

    5. Fraud or misreporting.

    6. More deaths will occur later.

    The problem with 1.-3. is that there are quite a few hospitalizations. I'm not exactly sure what these numbers mean, but they seem to be saying that around half of their cases have resulted in hospitalizations:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200422103854/https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

    So to those who want to use this data to say "it's not nearly as bad as commonly believed," why are there so many hospitalizations? There seem to be anomalously few deaths but not anomalously few hospitalizations, which is what you'd expect if Singapore was finding mild cases missed by others.

    There's also the data from the Diamond Princess.
    , @PiltdownMan
    That's a somewhat misleading statistic. Singapore had only about 1,000 cases until ten days ago, and had a strategy of hospitalizing everyone who tested positive, which kept the death rate down. Then they found that the disease was rife among their migrant workers, who live in massive dorms, and added 9,000 to the total in the last few days. The workers are mostly physically fit young men in their 20s and 30s, so the mortality numbers may still remain low. On the other hand, they're not going to get the intensive in-hospital medical care the locals have been getting. For one thing, there are not enough beds for all of them.

    https://i.imgur.com/DYF96CI.jpg

    , @epebble
    Larger samples:

    Malaysia: 5,532 cases, 93 deaths. 3 deaths per million population
    Indonesia: 7,418 cases. 635 deaths, 2 per MM
    Philippines: 6,710 cases, 446 deaths, 4 per MM
  3. South Tyrol
    Population 530,000
    Deaths 251
    Ortesei
    Population 4,753
    Deaths??

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    "South Tyrol
    Population 530,000
    Deaths 251"
     
    That's a 500+ per million population death rate, which would put South Tyrol top of the Worldometer death rate charts.

    Lovely place, South Tyrol, mostly German speaking, detached from Austria after WWI. We were there on the 50th anniversary of the Austrian Anschluss, and it was very odd to hear Hitler's speeches coming from the ski lift-attendant's hut as we went up the mountain.

  4. Anonymous[349] • Disclaimer says:

    This link contains a PDF with the list of deceased persons in South Tyrol. Ortisei is listed as St. Ulrich:

    https://www.ildolomiti.it/cronaca/2020/coronavirus-in-alto-adige-un-nuovo-decesso-a-brunico-e-castelrotto-sono-30-i-morti-ad-appiano-da-inizio-epidemia

    It looks like 10 people died in Ortisei (out of a population of 4883). This translates into IFR (infected fatality rate) of 0.0041 or 0.41%.

    Multiply this number by two, because it’s likely that not everyone has been tested and probably some more people in critical conditions are going to die in the near future, so let’s say 20 dead. This would translate into an IFR of 0.8%.

    The case of Castiglione d’Adda where 70% of the population tested positive to COVID-19 leads to similar results.

    IFR is very likely in the range 0.5% – 1%, most probably around 0.7%-0.9%.

    • Replies: @Jamie12
    You have to control for age structure. Small towns usually have an older population as young people are more likely to move to the cities to find work and go to university while old retirees are seeking some quiet and calm place.
    , @AnotherDad
    Thanks 349. Decent analysis.

    This is what you'd expect. Contra the "it's the flu bro" loons, whenever there's a high rate of infection you see a decent number of deaths. Jamie12's reply is on point: Whatever data you get you have to adjust for age structure. But the deaths are there.

    Hopefully we are continuously learning how to manage this so that the deaths go down, all the younger/healthier cases make it through, and remaining deaths are only old/sick and just an "early cull".
    , @Hail

    IFR is very likely in the range 0.5% – 1%
     
    That is a pure fantasy-world calculation, off by a factor of 10.

    Sorry, but promoting numbers like this at this point is irresponsible.

    That the fatality rate for this flu is ~0.1% (overall; possibly higher in outlier localities, but not 10x higher in anything close to a representative-population sample) is being confirmed again and again, most recently with Stockholm County, Sweden's latest randomized antibody study released yesterday.

    The biggest problem with the calculation you propose is that anyone who is hospitalized and in critical condition for any reason during an epidemic, will disproportionately end up positive for an epidemic-virus (because these viruses spread well in such circumstances), but the true cause of death is likely something else in many cases or most cases ("deaths with" vs. "deaths from"). More than half of deaths in Italy were nursing home patients. Any town with a larger share of nursing home (residents) is going to show higher numbers. And there may be other local factors. Zooming in on specific towns is therefore less useful than for a full-region or a full-country or a full set of countries all exposed to the epidemic.

    There is a way to test whether the two-/three-month epidemic has killed (or will kill) 1.0% of those infected, and that is: Do total-deaths for the twelve months July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020 spike to near double the normal? If that has not happened, the up-to-1.0% calculation is immediately shown to be wrong, one way or another. A second calculation is, What percentage of deaths are attributable to the Panic and breakdown of services (e.g., panicked staff abandoning nursing homes and patients dying without care; non-risk people who get heart attacks terrified of being treated at a hospital) and not to the Virus?

  5. Maybe we’re NOT gonna die, Private Dalton?

    • Agree: Hail
    • LOL: Old and Grumpy
  6. ‘Herd immunity’ sure sounds like magical thinking to me. If 90% have individual immunity, then yes it will look like contagion has mostly disappeared. But that’s just statistics, it’s not that a threshold has been passed and the virus ‘gave up’. Every individual still has the same potential to relaunch it as patient zero did. So 50% isn’t partial herd immunity by any means– partial herd immunity is just wishful thinking.

    And I don’t think we know yet if a positive antibody test even means they’re really immune.

    This article also leaves it to us to do the math that only 55 got immunity without symptoms, 175 did have symptoms, which is not very impressive for under-60s.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    ‘Herd immunity’ sure sounds like magical thinking to me.

     

    It's not magic, it's just math. Herd immunity is a real thing that can be observed in the wild - in herds of animals, thus the name. Think of a forest planted on a checkerboard grid where most of the trees have been replaced by artificial Christmas trees. Any tree that gets hit by lightning can still catch on fire but if most of the trees around it are no longer flammable then the fire will die out and the whole forest will not burn. In order for the forest to be "immune" to forest fires, you don't have to replace every single tree with a metal one. Mathematically it can be shown that when X% are metal there are no longer enough flammable ones left for the fire to propagate in a chain reaction. Maybe if you are unlucky, there will still be another flammable one next to the one that is on fire and that one will burn, but mathematically there little chance that it can go further than that. The scary thing about epidemics is their exponential nature - if 1 carrier on average infects 2 people, then those 2 will infect 4 and 4 will infect 8 and so on until pretty soon millions are infected. But if 1 person infects less than 1 person on average then instead of taking off exponentially, the series dies into nothingness 1, 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, etc.

    Obviously humans are not fixed in place like trees but the same holds - when most people are immune to a disease, an epidemic dies out even when immunity is not 100%. On the rare occasions when someone infectious appears he can be contact traced and the local brush fire he has ignited stamped out.


    And I don’t think we know yet if a positive antibody test even means they’re really immune.
     
    While this is technically true, surviving most viruses confers at least temporary immunity to a disease. People who know a lot about this say that while we don't "know" in the sense of having scientific proof, they would be really amazed if you didn't get some immunity by surviving Wuhan Virus.
    , @Servant of Gla'aki

    And I don’t think we know yet if a positive antibody test even means they’re really immune.
     
    This is really the only thing that matters. We have no idea whether this is potentially wonderful news for that community, or whether it's meaningless. Seems like something we need to figure out, ASAP.
  7. Do people living in the Alps have more red blood cells?

    • Thanks: hhsiii
  8. I love how the first commenter, from the USA, to the article rains on their miracle-parade. If the Sound of Music were made today, someone would have a police helicopter curcling Julie Andrews in the opening scence, telling her to get off the hill and go inside.

    Scrivo dagli USA dove vivo. Anche se si risulta immune dal Coronavirus ci si puo’ ancora infettare perche’ il virus e’ stato spiegato qui in America muta ed ha differenti punti di forza.

    BTW, my HS French teacher was Québécois, and I learned when I actually used my French in France that Québécois is the Hillbilly of French..

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    To the French in France, everyone outside France is a hillbilly.
    , @dearieme
    Cheer up. English is the hillbilly of Frisian.
  9. Unfortunately, I can’t find anything about deaths in this town.

    It seems that as of April 20 there had been 10 deaths: ages 64, 71, 77, 78, 80, 83, 87, 89, 91, 96

    https://www.ildolomiti.it/cronaca/2020/coronavirus-in-alto-adige-un-nuovo-decesso-a-brunico-e-castelrotto-sono-30-i-morti-ad-appiano-da-inizio-epidemia

    (Note that in the spreadsheet, Ortisei is listed under its German form St. Ulrich.)

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    The question would then be how many deaths were caused by covid, although we have a ceiling. Can then control for demographics.

    You have to think at fifty percent the virus would have a hard time establishing itself, and certainly the most vulnerable will have been taken already.
  10. I searched a little bit. Apparently there were 9 deaths in Ortisei (a village of around 5,000 inhabitants) as of the 6th of April. That is probably excluding most of the deaths outside of the hospitals. See this link : https://www.altoadige.it/cronaca/coronavirus-1-732-casi-in-alto-adige-impennata-di-positivi-a-ora-1.2310229

    The numbers in Ortisei don’t sound too bad if compared with a few other villages and towns in Europe where the death rate (including victims in nursing homes) is around 1% of the population and where the prevalence rate has been estimated as around 30-50%.

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    I typed in the ages on the first page of your link:

    90 92 94 94 95 96 96 96 98
    82 82 82 82 83 84 85 85 85 86 87 88 88 89 89
    72 74 74 75 75 75 76 77 78 78 79 79
    66 67
    56
  11. Apparently the Senate intel committee on invisible gremlins from the Kremlin has completely collapsed, it decided that saving face for a disgraced organization is more important than making sense or having credibility.
    Rumor: Kushner is cancelling Trump’s immigration executive order.
    Oh, and the PRC sank a Vietnamese ship in the South China Sea, but it was to protect the crew from Xi Jinping Cough. Good thing our navy wasn’t there or everybody’d get rammed.

  12. The earliest know SARS-CoV-2 related death in the US revised. The victim passed on February 6th.

    April 21, 2020

    Initially, the County of Santa Clara believed the first novel coronavirus death in the county was on March 9, 2020.

    Today, the medical examiner determined that 3 people who died before that date, passed away of COVID-19 complications.

    “The Medical Examiner-Coroner performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home on February 6, 2020 and February 17, 2020.

    Today, the Medical Examiner-Coroner received confirmation from the CDC that tissue samples from both cases are positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19).

    Additionally, the Medical Examiner-Coroner has also confirmed that an individual who died in the county on March 6 died of COVID-19.”

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home

     

    What was the the fatal injury? We are not told here.
    , @epebble
    This is very interesting data. The report says that the Feb 6th death was a Community Transmission - meaning they could not locate a chain of infection to China. If so, and if one assumes an incubation period of, say, 14 days to go from initial infection to becoming an effective active infector and three degrees of contract traceability, the very first infection could have been 42 days before, i.e. December 26, 2019. That is really close to the (global) patient zero.
  13. @for-the-record
    Unfortunately, I can’t find anything about deaths in this town.

    It seems that as of April 20 there had been 10 deaths: ages 64, 71, 77, 78, 80, 83, 87, 89, 91, 96

    https://www.ildolomiti.it/cronaca/2020/coronavirus-in-alto-adige-un-nuovo-decesso-a-brunico-e-castelrotto-sono-30-i-morti-ad-appiano-da-inizio-epidemia

    (Note that in the spreadsheet, Ortisei is listed under its German form St. Ulrich.)

    The question would then be how many deaths were caused by covid, although we have a ceiling. Can then control for demographics.

    You have to think at fifty percent the virus would have a hard time establishing itself, and certainly the most vulnerable will have been taken already.

  14. @The one
    South Tyrol
    Population 530,000
    Deaths 251
    Ortesei
    Population 4,753
    Deaths??

    “South Tyrol
    Population 530,000
    Deaths 251”

    That’s a 500+ per million population death rate, which would put South Tyrol top of the Worldometer death rate charts.

    Lovely place, South Tyrol, mostly German speaking, detached from Austria after WWI. We were there on the 50th anniversary of the Austrian Anschluss, and it was very odd to hear Hitler’s speeches coming from the ski lift-attendant’s hut as we went up the mountain.

    • Replies: @The one
    That's 0.05% and we know that 50% of the population are already infected
  15. Well, as the new data suggest this thing isnt particularly deadly. Perhaps to the chronically ill and a few unfortunate young. I am a doc. I work in a hospital. We deal with the covid susceptible population (chronically ill from various illnesses, wasting their days in futile medical care). We keep them alive and if all works out well they go home, or to a nursing home. A few weeks later they are back again. Same unfixable problem. We forestall death, same as before. We all know that death is just a coins throw away for them. We ask them if, given the dire circumstances, they would want to be revived. Most say yes. I described to them the trauma of CPR-cracking your rib cage, electric shocks, shoving a tube down your throat, placing inumerable needles into your arteries and veins. If I had to guess as the percentage of people, under normal circumstances, who requested everything be done I would guess its around 90% of patients. Nobody wants to die. That is understandable. But now we are faced with a flux of patients who, on any other given day, we would recommend ventilator support, CPR, etc as futile. But apparently these cases are not during the present, we must put them on ventilators and await what will likely be the same outcome as if they were not. Maybe just a bit sooner. Disclaimer: i totally support shutting down our economy in order to allow our elderly to draw a few more breaths at the expense of the young.

    • Thanks: vhrm
    • LOL: Mehen
    • Replies: @weejax
    and please, for anyone listening, call this thing TOM HANKS DISEASE, courtesy of Norm MacDonald.
  16. @JRB
    I searched a little bit. Apparently there were 9 deaths in Ortisei (a village of around 5,000 inhabitants) as of the 6th of April. That is probably excluding most of the deaths outside of the hospitals. See this link : https://www.altoadige.it/cronaca/coronavirus-1-732-casi-in-alto-adige-impennata-di-positivi-a-ora-1.2310229

    The numbers in Ortisei don't sound too bad if compared with a few other villages and towns in Europe where the death rate (including victims in nursing homes) is around 1% of the population and where the prevalence rate has been estimated as around 30-50%.

    I typed in the ages on the first page of your link:

    90 92 94 94 95 96 96 96 98
    82 82 82 82 83 84 85 85 85 86 87 88 88 89 89
    72 74 74 75 75 75 76 77 78 78 79 79
    66 67
    56

    • Replies: @JRB
    Yes, these ages are in line with what should be expected by now. The disease kills the old, the obese, the diabetic, the people who have survived cancer. males, non-Northern Europeans, et cetera. That said, what many Americans outside New York and Northern New Jersey (both places are infected from Italy) still don't understand is that the numbers that are dying in quite a lot of places are twice, thrice or even eight times as high as normal.
    , @dearieme
    It's ages since I saw a histogram like that. Do I remember rightly that Turkey was a keen proponent of them? Or was it George Box?
  17. @weejax
    Well, as the new data suggest this thing isnt particularly deadly. Perhaps to the chronically ill and a few unfortunate young. I am a doc. I work in a hospital. We deal with the covid susceptible population (chronically ill from various illnesses, wasting their days in futile medical care). We keep them alive and if all works out well they go home, or to a nursing home. A few weeks later they are back again. Same unfixable problem. We forestall death, same as before. We all know that death is just a coins throw away for them. We ask them if, given the dire circumstances, they would want to be revived. Most say yes. I described to them the trauma of CPR-cracking your rib cage, electric shocks, shoving a tube down your throat, placing inumerable needles into your arteries and veins. If I had to guess as the percentage of people, under normal circumstances, who requested everything be done I would guess its around 90% of patients. Nobody wants to die. That is understandable. But now we are faced with a flux of patients who, on any other given day, we would recommend ventilator support, CPR, etc as futile. But apparently these cases are not during the present, we must put them on ventilators and await what will likely be the same outcome as if they were not. Maybe just a bit sooner. Disclaimer: i totally support shutting down our economy in order to allow our elderly to draw a few more breaths at the expense of the young.

    and please, for anyone listening, call this thing TOM HANKS DISEASE, courtesy of Norm MacDonald.

    • Replies: @Joe Walker
    I didn't know Tom Hanks was from China.
    , @Anonymous

    and please, for anyone listening, call this thing TOM HANKS DISEASE, courtesy of Norm MacDonald.
     
    1. Steve, didn’t you originate the term, "Tom Hanks Disease?"

    2. I reason to believe Norm is a regular reader, and sometimes anonymous commenter on this website.

  18. @danand
    The earliest know SARS-CoV-2 related death in the US revised. The victim passed on February 6th.

    April 21, 2020

    Initially, the County of Santa Clara believed the first novel coronavirus death in the county was on March 9, 2020.

    Today, the medical examiner determined that 3 people who died before that date, passed away of COVID-19 complications.

    "The Medical Examiner-Coroner performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home on February 6, 2020 and February 17, 2020.

    Today, the Medical Examiner-Coroner received confirmation from the CDC that tissue samples from both cases are positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19).

    Additionally, the Medical Examiner-Coroner has also confirmed that an individual who died in the county on March 6 died of COVID-19."
     

    performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home

    What was the the fatal injury? We are not told here.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Even if they died by falling down in their bathroom, this wouldn't change the fact that they were apparently infected. In fact it might make things worse because it would show that symptomless carriers were spreading the disease. But chances are that they were old people who expired of "the flu" or of cardiac arrest while they had "the flu" (this happens all the time) and at the time it didn't register on anyone that their particular flu was Wuhan Virus.
  19. O/T

    This would be good fodder for a new thread:

    Harvard law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet (pictured), believes that homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.

    ….

    ‘I think that’s dangerous. I think it’s always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority,’ she said.

    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8242579/Harvard-law-professor-calls-homeschooling-dangerous.html

    • LOL: utu
    • Replies: @Captain Tripps

    ‘I think that’s dangerous. I think it’s always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority,’ she said.
     
    Sounds like a perfect description of the teacher-student relationshit (that's a deliberate misspelling).
    Nothing squeals louder than a pig whose food trough is threatened.

    Instructor, teach thyself.
    , @Reg Cæsar


    ...homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.
     
    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.
     
    On the other hand, a mother is far less likely to seduce her own son, or daughter.

    What's with the current crusade (apparently driven by mothers) of imprisoning female teachers for years for getting frisky with the students?

    Okay, call her a slut, ban her from the profession, put her in county jail for sodomy if her partner is a girl. But state prison, and for a decade or two? Don't we have better ways of spending our tax dollar?

    And where are the feminists? They've abandoned their sisters.

    , @AnotherDad

    Harvard law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet (pictured), believes that homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.
     
    Per spec. Leftism and the reigning minoritarian globalism is a totalitarian ideology. Heretics must be suppressed.

    But beyond that these people do not produce children--or sufficient children. Like the Shakers they must pull in the children from normal healthy families, to corrupt their brains and destroy their fertility.

    In fact *that is their job*, their "raison d'être"--to try and destroy the normal healthy families and culture of deplorables. Having a bunch of flyover country white people educating their own kids, and encouraging them toward normal healthy lives is an affront to their whole project, their conception of their own virtue and their very existence.
    , @Corvinus
    Not dangerous, but indoctrinating, regardless if the homeschooling is done by a raving lunatic liberal or conservative.
  20. @Anonymous
    This link contains a PDF with the list of deceased persons in South Tyrol. Ortisei is listed as St. Ulrich:

    https://www.ildolomiti.it/cronaca/2020/coronavirus-in-alto-adige-un-nuovo-decesso-a-brunico-e-castelrotto-sono-30-i-morti-ad-appiano-da-inizio-epidemia

    It looks like 10 people died in Ortisei (out of a population of 4883). This translates into IFR (infected fatality rate) of 0.0041 or 0.41%.

    Multiply this number by two, because it's likely that not everyone has been tested and probably some more people in critical conditions are going to die in the near future, so let's say 20 dead. This would translate into an IFR of 0.8%.

    The case of Castiglione d'Adda where 70% of the population tested positive to COVID-19 leads to similar results.

    IFR is very likely in the range 0.5% - 1%, most probably around 0.7%-0.9%.

    You have to control for age structure. Small towns usually have an older population as young people are more likely to move to the cities to find work and go to university while old retirees are seeking some quiet and calm place.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I had a quick look at the age pyramid of Ortisei:

    https://www.tuttitalia.it/trentino-alto-adige/15-ortisei/statistiche/popolazione-eta-sesso-stato-civile-2019/

    First impression it doesn't look too old, pretty normal with a fall in births after 1970 (around the time birth control was legalized in Italy). There are many young people. Consider that Ortisei is a ski and spa resort with lots of tourists, so they may have young people working there.

    It would also be interesting to control for obesity/diabetes, though data for that are quite difficult to find.
  21. From the description in the translated article, it is quite clear that the sampling was neither complete nor random. So if 49% of the sample have had it, it doesn’t follow that 49% of the towns population have had it.

  22. @Hippopotamusdrome
    I typed in the ages on the first page of your link:

    90 92 94 94 95 96 96 96 98
    82 82 82 82 83 84 85 85 85 86 87 88 88 89 89
    72 74 74 75 75 75 76 77 78 78 79 79
    66 67
    56

    Yes, these ages are in line with what should be expected by now. The disease kills the old, the obese, the diabetic, the people who have survived cancer. males, non-Northern Europeans, et cetera. That said, what many Americans outside New York and Northern New Jersey (both places are infected from Italy) still don’t understand is that the numbers that are dying in quite a lot of places are twice, thrice or even eight times as high as normal.

  23. Oh for god’s sake. WITH WHAT? Coronavirus? So is everyone on the planet. The “testing” scam is being used to keep the humans terrified until Gates’s “vaccination” is ready to roll out and microchip everyone that is stupid enough to allow it.

  24. Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

  25. @The one
    Singapore: 9,125 positives, 11 deaths

    I’m suspicious to Chinese honesty about data.

    • Replies: @Anon
    The data cut down the real figures by around 90%.
  26. @weejax
    and please, for anyone listening, call this thing TOM HANKS DISEASE, courtesy of Norm MacDonald.

    I didn’t know Tom Hanks was from China.

  27. Anonymous[349] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jamie12
    You have to control for age structure. Small towns usually have an older population as young people are more likely to move to the cities to find work and go to university while old retirees are seeking some quiet and calm place.

    I had a quick look at the age pyramid of Ortisei:

    https://www.tuttitalia.it/trentino-alto-adige/15-ortisei/statistiche/popolazione-eta-sesso-stato-civile-2019/

    First impression it doesn’t look too old, pretty normal with a fall in births after 1970 (around the time birth control was legalized in Italy). There are many young people. Consider that Ortisei is a ski and spa resort with lots of tourists, so they may have young people working there.

    It would also be interesting to control for obesity/diabetes, though data for that are quite difficult to find.

  28. The Alpine region is the apex of human civilization.

  29. From Il Messaggero, via Google Translate

    So who knows how much validity to grant this one article?

  30. @robot
    'Herd immunity' sure sounds like magical thinking to me. If 90% have individual immunity, then yes it will look like contagion has mostly disappeared. But that's just statistics, it's not that a threshold has been passed and the virus 'gave up'. Every individual still has the same potential to relaunch it as patient zero did. So 50% isn't partial herd immunity by any means-- partial herd immunity is just wishful thinking.

    And I don't think we know yet if a positive antibody test even means they're really immune.

    This article also leaves it to us to do the math that only 55 got immunity without symptoms, 175 did have symptoms, which is not very impressive for under-60s.

    ‘Herd immunity’ sure sounds like magical thinking to me.

    It’s not magic, it’s just math. Herd immunity is a real thing that can be observed in the wild – in herds of animals, thus the name. Think of a forest planted on a checkerboard grid where most of the trees have been replaced by artificial Christmas trees. Any tree that gets hit by lightning can still catch on fire but if most of the trees around it are no longer flammable then the fire will die out and the whole forest will not burn. In order for the forest to be “immune” to forest fires, you don’t have to replace every single tree with a metal one. Mathematically it can be shown that when X% are metal there are no longer enough flammable ones left for the fire to propagate in a chain reaction. Maybe if you are unlucky, there will still be another flammable one next to the one that is on fire and that one will burn, but mathematically there little chance that it can go further than that. The scary thing about epidemics is their exponential nature – if 1 carrier on average infects 2 people, then those 2 will infect 4 and 4 will infect 8 and so on until pretty soon millions are infected. But if 1 person infects less than 1 person on average then instead of taking off exponentially, the series dies into nothingness 1, 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, etc.

    Obviously humans are not fixed in place like trees but the same holds – when most people are immune to a disease, an epidemic dies out even when immunity is not 100%. On the rare occasions when someone infectious appears he can be contact traced and the local brush fire he has ignited stamped out.

    And I don’t think we know yet if a positive antibody test even means they’re really immune.

    While this is technically true, surviving most viruses confers at least temporary immunity to a disease. People who know a lot about this say that while we don’t “know” in the sense of having scientific proof, they would be really amazed if you didn’t get some immunity by surviving Wuhan Virus.

    • Replies: @robot
    Yes, as I said, it's just statistics. But that only kicks in around 90%, and everybody's using magical thinking to stretch it far lower.
  31. @Hippopotamusdrome


    performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home

     

    What was the the fatal injury? We are not told here.

    Even if they died by falling down in their bathroom, this wouldn’t change the fact that they were apparently infected. In fact it might make things worse because it would show that symptomless carriers were spreading the disease. But chances are that they were old people who expired of “the flu” or of cardiac arrest while they had “the flu” (this happens all the time) and at the time it didn’t register on anyone that their particular flu was Wuhan Virus.

  32. @The Alarmist
    I love how the first commenter, from the USA, to the article rains on their miracle-parade. If the Sound of Music were made today, someone would have a police helicopter curcling Julie Andrews in the opening scence, telling her to get off the hill and go inside.

    Scrivo dagli USA dove vivo. Anche se si risulta immune dal Coronavirus ci si puo' ancora infettare perche' il virus e' stato spiegato qui in America muta ed ha differenti punti di forza.
     
    BTW, my HS French teacher was Québécois, and I learned when I actually used my French in France that Québécois is the Hillbilly of French..

    To the French in France, everyone outside France is a hillbilly.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    To the Parisians in Paris, everyone outside Paris is a hillbilly.

    But the Québécois really do analogize to American hillbillies - they are originally from some rural part of the mother country and then they settle in a wild and mountainous area with isolated villages where they survive by farming, hunting and trapping and develop their own isolated culture which includes religious fanaticism, large families, hard drinking, fisticuffs and an incomprehensible accent and vocabulary derived from the dialect of their original home region, which in isolation evolves even further from the formal version of the mother tongue. To someone accustomed to the urban sophistication of the capital of the mother country, they really do sound like hicks. (Of course the modern Québécois are largely urbanized and quite different than their rural ancestors but the funny accent remains).

    Of course there are differences too, the main one being that the Catholic Church played a central role in Quebec life whereas American religion was much less centralized.

    , @The Alarmist
    To the French outside Paris, Parisians are assholes ... the love goes both ways.
  33. @The Alarmist
    I love how the first commenter, from the USA, to the article rains on their miracle-parade. If the Sound of Music were made today, someone would have a police helicopter curcling Julie Andrews in the opening scence, telling her to get off the hill and go inside.

    Scrivo dagli USA dove vivo. Anche se si risulta immune dal Coronavirus ci si puo' ancora infettare perche' il virus e' stato spiegato qui in America muta ed ha differenti punti di forza.
     
    BTW, my HS French teacher was Québécois, and I learned when I actually used my French in France that Québécois is the Hillbilly of French..

    Cheer up. English is the hillbilly of Frisian.

    • LOL: MBlanc46
  34. @Hippopotamusdrome
    I typed in the ages on the first page of your link:

    90 92 94 94 95 96 96 96 98
    82 82 82 82 83 84 85 85 85 86 87 88 88 89 89
    72 74 74 75 75 75 76 77 78 78 79 79
    66 67
    56

    It’s ages since I saw a histogram like that. Do I remember rightly that Turkey was a keen proponent of them? Or was it George Box?

    • Replies: @Half Canadian
    They're Stem-and-Leaf diagrams, and yes, Tukey was a proponent.

    https://mathworld.wolfram.com/Stem-and-LeafDiagram.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stem-and-leaf_display
  35. At this point we know so little about this disease that pretty much everything we say is complete nonsense.

    Recent studies show that there are now at least 30 different mutations of COVID 19. Some appear to be much more deadly than others. Look at the per capita death rates in places like San Marino or NYC. These are first wave Spanish Flu level death rates. Something to avoid at all costs. Some places in Cali appear to have Asian Flu level death rates. Horrible, but not worth shutting down our economy for a protracted time.

    We don’t even know if getting the disease confers immunity. Of course, nothing is 100%. My brother got Chicken Pox twice. We don’t know if getting one strain confers immunity for the other strains, the way Cow Pox gave some immunity towards Chicken Pox. We don’t even have a clue how many people are really getting this disease, and how many are dying.

    Of course with our ignorance, many people erroneously believe they have the answers. After all, if the experts aren’t 100% certain, then why not believe what someone said on a tin foil hat web site?

    I tend to err on the side of caution. History is full of places wiped out by disease in an effort to open up trade too soon.

    • Agree: epebble
    • Replies: @Jack D

    History is full of places wiped out by disease in an effort to open up trade too soon.
     
    We are not getting "wiped out" by this disease. Even in the worst hit areas, you are talking about 1% mortality, with mortality concentrated among the old and diseased. The young and the healthy mostly experience this disease as a seasonal cold or flu at worst, and often have no symptoms at all. There are exceptions but they are rare - the very opposite of a wipe out. As sad as the loss of the elderly may be for their loved ones, such losses would not "wipe us out" - in fact it would leave us better off in many respects.

    And not just financially. Read the story of the Andover Nursing Home, hard hit by Covid.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html

    The place was a urine scented hell on earth even before Covid. America is full of these human warehouses filled with people who are not yet dead but not really alive in any meaningful way either. In the past, it was understood that while it is a sin for man to take matters into his own hand, if Providence should send a plague that would take such sufferers into their eternal rest, this was a blessing to us all, most of all to those relieved of their suffering.
    , @MBlanc46
    A necessary note of caution.
  36. @Hibernian
    To the French in France, everyone outside France is a hillbilly.

    To the Parisians in Paris, everyone outside Paris is a hillbilly.

    But the Québécois really do analogize to American hillbillies – they are originally from some rural part of the mother country and then they settle in a wild and mountainous area with isolated villages where they survive by farming, hunting and trapping and develop their own isolated culture which includes religious fanaticism, large families, hard drinking, fisticuffs and an incomprehensible accent and vocabulary derived from the dialect of their original home region, which in isolation evolves even further from the formal version of the mother tongue. To someone accustomed to the urban sophistication of the capital of the mother country, they really do sound like hicks. (Of course the modern Québécois are largely urbanized and quite different than their rural ancestors but the funny accent remains).

    Of course there are differences too, the main one being that the Catholic Church played a central role in Quebec life whereas American religion was much less centralized.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Of course there are differences too, the main one being that the Catholic Church played a central role in Quebec life whereas American religion was much less centralized.
     
    The Quebecois may have been largely illiterate, but they left the best genealogical records in North America thanks to their Jesuit priests.
    , @RAZ
    Jack D beat me to it. To Parisians, everyone outside Paris is a hillbilly.

    Kind of common elsewhere, also to look down on others in your country if you are from the elite city/cities.

    To New Yorkers, the view of the world is that of the famous New Yorker magazine cover where everything west of the Hudson is a small area until the Pacific Ocean.

    To people in London, anywhere else in the UK is considered the Provinces. The Beatles were considered to be some guys from the Provinces when they were first trying to make it.
  37. I know someone who worked at a job (in the US) that occasionally involved doing typesetting in Romansch. He explained that knowledge of a language isn’t necessary for typesetting work.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    In fact it can be an impediment. I once knew a fellow who worked for a legal book publisher. This was so long ago (early '80s) that the authors still submitted their manuscripts typed on paper rather than in any electronic form. (Word processing was starting to be used but it was not yet universal or standardized.) The publisher would (partly for reasons of cost) ship the manuscripts to Korea where they were typed into an electronic format readable by their typesetting software and the tapes air freighted back. Each manuscript would be typed twice so that any typing errors would show up in an electronic comparison. They found that it was better to have the typing done by NON Engrish speakers because English speakers tended to make their own unconscious corrections and they wanted the manuscript to be typed faithfully.
  38. @danand
    The earliest know SARS-CoV-2 related death in the US revised. The victim passed on February 6th.

    April 21, 2020

    Initially, the County of Santa Clara believed the first novel coronavirus death in the county was on March 9, 2020.

    Today, the medical examiner determined that 3 people who died before that date, passed away of COVID-19 complications.

    "The Medical Examiner-Coroner performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home on February 6, 2020 and February 17, 2020.

    Today, the Medical Examiner-Coroner received confirmation from the CDC that tissue samples from both cases are positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19).

    Additionally, the Medical Examiner-Coroner has also confirmed that an individual who died in the county on March 6 died of COVID-19."
     

    This is very interesting data. The report says that the Feb 6th death was a Community Transmission – meaning they could not locate a chain of infection to China. If so, and if one assumes an incubation period of, say, 14 days to go from initial infection to becoming an effective active infector and three degrees of contract traceability, the very first infection could have been 42 days before, i.e. December 26, 2019. That is really close to the (global) patient zero.

    • Replies: @danand

    “That is really close to the (global) patient zero.”
     
    Epebble, yes that figures about right. Dr. Sara Cody just gave a TV briefing. She said that first known victim was a 57 yr old woman, the next 2 men, one in his 60’s, the other 70’s. Would not elaborate as to whether there was an interconnection/interaction between these 3.

    Amoung Dr. Cody’s concluding words was that “this virus is going to be with us for a very, very, very, long time. A bit note worthy in that she comes across as a measured individual.
  39. There’s one man in South Tyrol who definitely doesn’t have to worry about this disease thing.
    http://www.iceman.it/en/the-iceman/

  40. Sounds like a self-selected sample of people willing to pay 30 euros to find out if they were infected. So while 49% of the sample shows antibodies, I doubt the incidence is that high in the entire population.

    We stayed in Kastelruth (just down the road) in 2015. The area is mostly German-speaking. After spending 10 days in Germany and Austria, where everyone we encountered spoke English, I had to break out my high school German to communicate with the host at our agriturisimo (farmhouse B&B). Her English was about as bad as my German, but we managed to communicate the necessities.

  41. @Anonymous
    This link contains a PDF with the list of deceased persons in South Tyrol. Ortisei is listed as St. Ulrich:

    https://www.ildolomiti.it/cronaca/2020/coronavirus-in-alto-adige-un-nuovo-decesso-a-brunico-e-castelrotto-sono-30-i-morti-ad-appiano-da-inizio-epidemia

    It looks like 10 people died in Ortisei (out of a population of 4883). This translates into IFR (infected fatality rate) of 0.0041 or 0.41%.

    Multiply this number by two, because it's likely that not everyone has been tested and probably some more people in critical conditions are going to die in the near future, so let's say 20 dead. This would translate into an IFR of 0.8%.

    The case of Castiglione d'Adda where 70% of the population tested positive to COVID-19 leads to similar results.

    IFR is very likely in the range 0.5% - 1%, most probably around 0.7%-0.9%.

    Thanks 349. Decent analysis.

    This is what you’d expect. Contra the “it’s the flu bro” loons, whenever there’s a high rate of infection you see a decent number of deaths. Jamie12’s reply is on point: Whatever data you get you have to adjust for age structure. But the deaths are there.

    Hopefully we are continuously learning how to manage this so that the deaths go down, all the younger/healthier cases make it through, and remaining deaths are only old/sick and just an “early cull”.

    • Replies: @Old Prude
    It’s seems pretty certain at this point that my chances of catching Bat Flu are a helluva lot less than my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.

    But yeah let’s keep up the circle jerk with the stats and infection rates etc. while we voluntarily destroy our lives. Is Christmas cancelled yet?
    , @Intelligent Dasein

    Contra the “it’s the flu bro” loons,
     
    Stop groveling for "strange new respect" with Steve and Ron. It's unseemly.
    , @Polynikes

    But the deaths are there.
     
    Where? Excess mortality isn't showing what it should every death reported as Covid19 was an additional death to normal life. Reported without a test, suspected, or projected (have we not learned our lesson by now?) should be treated with suspicion. Yes, NYC is bad, but that is the case usually with the flu. If you go to the CDC's website and look at the state map there are always states hit harder. They are usually in the upper midwest or NE, often with it being NY. Apparently living in a cold weather, dense city where you're cramped into tiny apts and eat in tiny restaurants all winter is bad for virus transmission. Who knew?

    If you don't like the flu comparison, I'm open to a better one. But this is literally very similar to the flu. It'd be like if the flu hit and we didn't have a vaccine for it. Occasionally the vaccine for the flu doesn't work and mortality spikes as a result.
  42. @The Alarmist
    O/T

    This would be good fodder for a new thread:


    Harvard law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet (pictured), believes that homeschooling can be 'dangerous' because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.

    ....

    'I think that's dangerous. I think it's always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority,' she said.


     

    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8242579/Harvard-law-professor-calls-homeschooling-dangerous.html

    ‘I think that’s dangerous. I think it’s always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority,’ she said.

    Sounds like a perfect description of the teacher-student relationshit (that’s a deliberate misspelling).
    Nothing squeals louder than a pig whose food trough is threatened.

    Instructor, teach thyself.

  43. For future links like this, deepl.com usually gives better translations than google, as in this case. Compare google’s
    “The mountain resort, historic destination for summer and winter holidays, has already acquired a partial immunity of flock against the virus.”
    to deepl:
    “The mountain resort, a historic summer and winter holiday destination, has already acquired partial herd immunity against the virus.”

  44. @Hibernian
    To the French in France, everyone outside France is a hillbilly.

    To the French outside Paris, Parisians are assholes … the love goes both ways.

    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
    I can well imagine that to be very analogous to the cultural divide between "Porteños" (arrogant, foul mouthed asshole inhabitants of Buenos Aires) and the rest of Argentina. Here, we have our NYC.
  45. @robot
    'Herd immunity' sure sounds like magical thinking to me. If 90% have individual immunity, then yes it will look like contagion has mostly disappeared. But that's just statistics, it's not that a threshold has been passed and the virus 'gave up'. Every individual still has the same potential to relaunch it as patient zero did. So 50% isn't partial herd immunity by any means-- partial herd immunity is just wishful thinking.

    And I don't think we know yet if a positive antibody test even means they're really immune.

    This article also leaves it to us to do the math that only 55 got immunity without symptoms, 175 did have symptoms, which is not very impressive for under-60s.

    And I don’t think we know yet if a positive antibody test even means they’re really immune.

    This is really the only thing that matters. We have no idea whether this is potentially wonderful news for that community, or whether it’s meaningless. Seems like something we need to figure out, ASAP.

  46. @prosa123
    I know someone who worked at a job (in the US) that occasionally involved doing typesetting in Romansch. He explained that knowledge of a language isn't necessary for typesetting work.

    In fact it can be an impediment. I once knew a fellow who worked for a legal book publisher. This was so long ago (early ’80s) that the authors still submitted their manuscripts typed on paper rather than in any electronic form. (Word processing was starting to be used but it was not yet universal or standardized.) The publisher would (partly for reasons of cost) ship the manuscripts to Korea where they were typed into an electronic format readable by their typesetting software and the tapes air freighted back. Each manuscript would be typed twice so that any typing errors would show up in an electronic comparison. They found that it was better to have the typing done by NON Engrish speakers because English speakers tended to make their own unconscious corrections and they wanted the manuscript to be typed faithfully.

  47. It’s been amazing watching the media narratives shift in real time.

    They’ve never addressed the arbitrary nature of the American shut down; why small and medium local businesses get screwed even as Wal-Mart stays afloat, oil companies are allowed to continue building pipelines, and big restaurant chains get big loans.

    They’ve just browbeaten the masses into accepting this fake lockdown #1, as if it were applied equally and sensibly, and then #2, as if it were necessary, let alone well-thought out. Well, #1 alone proves not only that there are serious problems with the narrative for #2, but that the little people of this country have basically no institutional power when it counts. But that shouldn’t surprise anyone with a brain and reasonable powers of observation.

    They – especially Democrat governors – started by telling us they had to flatten the curve. In Pennsylvania, this has been sufficiently accomplished to the point that one of the big health companies, UPMC, has unilaterally announced it will reopen elective surgeries. http://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/upmc-says-coronavirus-surge-simply-hasnt-happened-will-resume-elective-surgeries.html

    Now the “experts” are telling us we have to continue giving up our “old normal” because we have to have more testing availability. So much for flattening the curve. Well, this isn’t like a Prussian, Clausewitzian war, with pre-set objectives that must be met. This is a statist, globalist “war” with “front lines” that are justified by constantly changing metrics – anything to keep small and medium businesses from getting a break.

    Governor Murphy of New Jersey is openly saying people can’t expect to recover their “old normal.” Democrat governors in purple states – like PA and Michigan – are less honest.

    Governors and the media are now also starting to tell us that there’s no point in reopening non-Globohomo businesses any time soon because we’re all supposedly “too scared” to resume normal life.

    That’s the level of delusion and deceit among the folks justifying this partial lockdown: they don’t want us to be afraid of going to Wal-Mart, Home Depot, or any number of multinational conglomerate businesses, but they do want us to be afraid of our local barber shop.

    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    The one promising thing in all of this is that the American people basically forced their governments to admit the efficacy of masks by ignoring all of the so-called "experts" who initially told us to not bother.
    , @ben tillman

    Governors and the media are now also starting to tell us that there’s no point in reopening non-Globohomo businesses any time soon because we’re all supposedly “too scared” to resume normal life.
     
    I'm really not hearing any of this stuff.
  48. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    It's been amazing watching the media narratives shift in real time.

    They've never addressed the arbitrary nature of the American shut down; why small and medium local businesses get screwed even as Wal-Mart stays afloat, oil companies are allowed to continue building pipelines, and big restaurant chains get big loans.

    They've just browbeaten the masses into accepting this fake lockdown #1, as if it were applied equally and sensibly, and then #2, as if it were necessary, let alone well-thought out. Well, #1 alone proves not only that there are serious problems with the narrative for #2, but that the little people of this country have basically no institutional power when it counts. But that shouldn't surprise anyone with a brain and reasonable powers of observation.

    They - especially Democrat governors - started by telling us they had to flatten the curve. In Pennsylvania, this has been sufficiently accomplished to the point that one of the big health companies, UPMC, has unilaterally announced it will reopen elective surgeries. http://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/upmc-says-coronavirus-surge-simply-hasnt-happened-will-resume-elective-surgeries.html

    Now the "experts" are telling us we have to continue giving up our "old normal" because we have to have more testing availability. So much for flattening the curve. Well, this isn't like a Prussian, Clausewitzian war, with pre-set objectives that must be met. This is a statist, globalist "war" with "front lines" that are justified by constantly changing metrics - anything to keep small and medium businesses from getting a break.

    Governor Murphy of New Jersey is openly saying people can't expect to recover their "old normal." Democrat governors in purple states - like PA and Michigan - are less honest.

    Governors and the media are now also starting to tell us that there's no point in reopening non-Globohomo businesses any time soon because we're all supposedly "too scared" to resume normal life.

    That's the level of delusion and deceit among the folks justifying this partial lockdown: they don't want us to be afraid of going to Wal-Mart, Home Depot, or any number of multinational conglomerate businesses, but they do want us to be afraid of our local barber shop.

    The one promising thing in all of this is that the American people basically forced their governments to admit the efficacy of masks by ignoring all of the so-called “experts” who initially told us to not bother.

  49. @Paleo Liberal
    At this point we know so little about this disease that pretty much everything we say is complete nonsense.

    Recent studies show that there are now at least 30 different mutations of COVID 19. Some appear to be much more deadly than others. Look at the per capita death rates in places like San Marino or NYC. These are first wave Spanish Flu level death rates. Something to avoid at all costs. Some places in Cali appear to have Asian Flu level death rates. Horrible, but not worth shutting down our economy for a protracted time.

    We don’t even know if getting the disease confers immunity. Of course, nothing is 100%. My brother got Chicken Pox twice. We don’t know if getting one strain confers immunity for the other strains, the way Cow Pox gave some immunity towards Chicken Pox. We don’t even have a clue how many people are really getting this disease, and how many are dying.

    Of course with our ignorance, many people erroneously believe they have the answers. After all, if the experts aren’t 100% certain, then why not believe what someone said on a tin foil hat web site?

    I tend to err on the side of caution. History is full of places wiped out by disease in an effort to open up trade too soon.

    History is full of places wiped out by disease in an effort to open up trade too soon.

    We are not getting “wiped out” by this disease. Even in the worst hit areas, you are talking about 1% mortality, with mortality concentrated among the old and diseased. The young and the healthy mostly experience this disease as a seasonal cold or flu at worst, and often have no symptoms at all. There are exceptions but they are rare – the very opposite of a wipe out. As sad as the loss of the elderly may be for their loved ones, such losses would not “wipe us out” – in fact it would leave us better off in many respects.

    And not just financially. Read the story of the Andover Nursing Home, hard hit by Covid.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html

    The place was a urine scented hell on earth even before Covid. America is full of these human warehouses filled with people who are not yet dead but not really alive in any meaningful way either. In the past, it was understood that while it is a sin for man to take matters into his own hand, if Providence should send a plague that would take such sufferers into their eternal rest, this was a blessing to us all, most of all to those relieved of their suffering.

    • Agree: Old Prude
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    Agree.

    At the beginning i was mostly annoyed by the hysterics. It was evident immediately that this wasn't the plague. And--with the exception of some young medical staff getting mega-doses and hit with cytokine storms--was basically an early cull.

    Now i'm annoyed with the "just the flu bro" loons who can't do basic math--basic "sanity checks" which are the core of intelligent thought. (And even post graphs that they can't interpret.)

    What's needed is a reasoned response that walks us through to a vaccine, or baring that clear, easy treatment that we have the infrastructure to provide. My take is that
    -- sick people stay home
    -- old/weak locked up
    -- wash paws, sanitizer
    -- masks in indoor public venues (stores)
    -- skip the big close-contact open-mouth gatherings--ex. clubbing
    and you've whacked this--probably any respiratory disease--to replication ratio <1.

    But even if we went with "let it rip!", the "take out your dead" wagons would be full of old, sick folks.

    As long as Soylent Green can still be made with china-virus infected dead, there is no threat to civilization whatsoever.
    , @Corvinus
    "America is full of these human warehouses filled with people who are not yet dead but not really alive in any meaningful way either."

    You are way overgeneralizing here. Assuredly, there are nursing homes that have deplorable conditions. But a good many are clean and nurturing environments. Who are to say that the people living there are definitively NOT living a full life?

    "In the past, it was understood that while it is a sin for man to take matters into his own hand, if Providence should send a plague that would take such sufferers into their eternal rest, this was a blessing to us all, most of all to those relieved of their suffering."

    Assuming that they are suffering, and assuming that people seek God to intervene to relieve this suffering.
  50. @Jack D
    To the Parisians in Paris, everyone outside Paris is a hillbilly.

    But the Québécois really do analogize to American hillbillies - they are originally from some rural part of the mother country and then they settle in a wild and mountainous area with isolated villages where they survive by farming, hunting and trapping and develop their own isolated culture which includes religious fanaticism, large families, hard drinking, fisticuffs and an incomprehensible accent and vocabulary derived from the dialect of their original home region, which in isolation evolves even further from the formal version of the mother tongue. To someone accustomed to the urban sophistication of the capital of the mother country, they really do sound like hicks. (Of course the modern Québécois are largely urbanized and quite different than their rural ancestors but the funny accent remains).

    Of course there are differences too, the main one being that the Catholic Church played a central role in Quebec life whereas American religion was much less centralized.

    Of course there are differences too, the main one being that the Catholic Church played a central role in Quebec life whereas American religion was much less centralized.

    The Quebecois may have been largely illiterate, but they left the best genealogical records in North America thanks to their Jesuit priests.

  51. @Jack D
    To the Parisians in Paris, everyone outside Paris is a hillbilly.

    But the Québécois really do analogize to American hillbillies - they are originally from some rural part of the mother country and then they settle in a wild and mountainous area with isolated villages where they survive by farming, hunting and trapping and develop their own isolated culture which includes religious fanaticism, large families, hard drinking, fisticuffs and an incomprehensible accent and vocabulary derived from the dialect of their original home region, which in isolation evolves even further from the formal version of the mother tongue. To someone accustomed to the urban sophistication of the capital of the mother country, they really do sound like hicks. (Of course the modern Québécois are largely urbanized and quite different than their rural ancestors but the funny accent remains).

    Of course there are differences too, the main one being that the Catholic Church played a central role in Quebec life whereas American religion was much less centralized.

    Jack D beat me to it. To Parisians, everyone outside Paris is a hillbilly.

    Kind of common elsewhere, also to look down on others in your country if you are from the elite city/cities.

    To New Yorkers, the view of the world is that of the famous New Yorker magazine cover where everything west of the Hudson is a small area until the Pacific Ocean.

    To people in London, anywhere else in the UK is considered the Provinces. The Beatles were considered to be some guys from the Provinces when they were first trying to make it.

  52. @AnotherDad
    Thanks 349. Decent analysis.

    This is what you'd expect. Contra the "it's the flu bro" loons, whenever there's a high rate of infection you see a decent number of deaths. Jamie12's reply is on point: Whatever data you get you have to adjust for age structure. But the deaths are there.

    Hopefully we are continuously learning how to manage this so that the deaths go down, all the younger/healthier cases make it through, and remaining deaths are only old/sick and just an "early cull".

    It’s seems pretty certain at this point that my chances of catching Bat Flu are a helluva lot less than my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.

    But yeah let’s keep up the circle jerk with the stats and infection rates etc. while we voluntarily destroy our lives. Is Christmas cancelled yet?

    • Replies: @Hail

    my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.
     
    I calculate that the Corona Response is, surprisingly, hundreds of times worse than the Coronavirus itself, as measured by Aggregate-Lost-Life-Years. The only question is how many hundreds of times worse it will be.

    There are lots of variables, but I actually don't see any way this is going to be less than "hundreds of times" worse.

    To be specific, that's hundreds of times more aggregate-lost-life-years able to be attributed to the impact of the Corona Response than to the Coronavirus itself (the latter being expected deaths from the virus, based on all we now know about total-mortality and age-condition profile). That is a dry calculation, based on the sum of all now-living people. A certain further upward-multiplier could/should be applied given that the people most hurt may be the young trying to establish themselves, the immediate future of the nation. (IOW, a nation cannot be reduced to a sum of aggregate-expected-life-years-remaining; the calculation is useful but cannot stand totally alone.)

    There is very likely to also be a fertility fall-off with the Corona Recession, as there always are fertility drops in major recessions. There are likely therefore to be millions fewer births in the West in 2021, 2022, 2023 than there would have been if we had 'ignored' this flu strain (which I believe we should have, especially knowing what we know now), with basic measures but no shutdowns and no media-directed 'CoronaPanic.' The "lost births" ramps up the 'hit' even further in the aggregate-lost-life-years calculation, if you include those never-to-be-born people's expected-lifespans.

    , @Anonymous

    It’s seems pretty certain at this point that my chances of catching Bat Flu are a helluva lot less than my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.
     
    I’m a landlord. I recently put a renovated apartment up for rent, two weeks before the lockdown. I would say I priced the rent a bit on the high side. I had two contenders. One was a couple with one if their moms. Good credit. Solid, virus-proof jobs, except one was a nurse. The other was a late twenty-something business owner and another roommate. Type A personality, ran his own health club. Solid credit.

    Tom Hanks Virus hit, they all dropped out immediately. The health club guy was pretty shook up. Everything he had was tied up in that place, and it was closed, for good as far as he was concerned. Everything he busted his ass for, borrowed from relatives to get on its feet. Gone. Instead of moving to my place, he was contemplating moving back into his parent's place. He got thoroughly whipped.

    The other family dropped out because the nurse didn’t want to move his mother in law in with them, since hw was going to be around tom Hanks virus all day.

    I then pledged to myself I would only accept tenants with co-signers whom I could verify were in good shape, since I didn’t want to get hung out to dry for rents. New applicants showed up a few days later, co-signer in tow, and I got the place rented.

    Doesn’t suck to be me, but many regular working joe's, of any age, are in hell about now. In the trenches, amongst the people who get the work done in this country, life is very intense. When discussing what should happen next, they should be a top priority.

    , @Polynikes
    One projection (I know...take with a grain of salt) I read from a medical group out of the UK estimated an additional 120,000 deaths from cancer over the next 5 years. If that's even remotely close, that alone would argue against any strict measures. Then add in the same factor for deaths for heart disease, suicides, and crime, and pretty soon we're talking about real numbers. That doesn't even get into the non-death toll: mental illness, depression, addiction, loss of economic opportunities, etc...

    We might look back at this in a few years and conclude these measures aren't worth it unless is disease is known to likely kill millions! And we did it for a small fraction of that.
  53. @The Alarmist
    O/T

    This would be good fodder for a new thread:


    Harvard law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet (pictured), believes that homeschooling can be 'dangerous' because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.

    ....

    'I think that's dangerous. I think it's always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority,' she said.


     

    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8242579/Harvard-law-professor-calls-homeschooling-dangerous.html

    …homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.

    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.

    On the other hand, a mother is far less likely to seduce her own son, or daughter.

    What’s with the current crusade (apparently driven by mothers) of imprisoning female teachers for years for getting frisky with the students?

    Okay, call her a slut, ban her from the profession, put her in county jail for sodomy if her partner is a girl. But state prison, and for a decade or two? Don’t we have better ways of spending our tax dollar?

    And where are the feminists? They’ve abandoned their sisters.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist

    What’s with the current crusade (apparently driven by mothers) of imprisoning female teachers for years for getting frisky with the students?
     
    I would assume the response of most men my age would be, "Where were these teachers when I was in school?"

    Interestingly, one of her arguments is that children are likely to be abused at home without the check provided by teachers, who are a position to notice and report these things.

    , @Intelligent Dasein
    You mention this a lot. Personally, I think you're a bit too interested in this topic.
  54. @Jack D

    History is full of places wiped out by disease in an effort to open up trade too soon.
     
    We are not getting "wiped out" by this disease. Even in the worst hit areas, you are talking about 1% mortality, with mortality concentrated among the old and diseased. The young and the healthy mostly experience this disease as a seasonal cold or flu at worst, and often have no symptoms at all. There are exceptions but they are rare - the very opposite of a wipe out. As sad as the loss of the elderly may be for their loved ones, such losses would not "wipe us out" - in fact it would leave us better off in many respects.

    And not just financially. Read the story of the Andover Nursing Home, hard hit by Covid.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html

    The place was a urine scented hell on earth even before Covid. America is full of these human warehouses filled with people who are not yet dead but not really alive in any meaningful way either. In the past, it was understood that while it is a sin for man to take matters into his own hand, if Providence should send a plague that would take such sufferers into their eternal rest, this was a blessing to us all, most of all to those relieved of their suffering.

    Agree.

    At the beginning i was mostly annoyed by the hysterics. It was evident immediately that this wasn’t the plague. And–with the exception of some young medical staff getting mega-doses and hit with cytokine storms–was basically an early cull.

    Now i’m annoyed with the “just the flu bro” loons who can’t do basic math–basic “sanity checks” which are the core of intelligent thought. (And even post graphs that they can’t interpret.)

    What’s needed is a reasoned response that walks us through to a vaccine, or baring that clear, easy treatment that we have the infrastructure to provide. My take is that
    — sick people stay home
    — old/weak locked up
    — wash paws, sanitizer
    — masks in indoor public venues (stores)
    — skip the big close-contact open-mouth gatherings–ex. clubbing
    and you’ve whacked this–probably any respiratory disease–to replication ratio <1.

    But even if we went with "let it rip!", the "take out your dead" wagons would be full of old, sick folks.

    As long as Soylent Green can still be made with china-virus infected dead, there is no threat to civilization whatsoever.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    — old/weak locked up
     
    The problem is that we already have the old/weak locked up, but in such a way that they can all get infected instead of protected. If the GOAL was to infect and kill off the maximum # of vulnerable elderly we couldn't have done it much better. There are nursing homes where they now assume that 100% of the staff and patients have been infected. But meanwhile the schools are closed even though the young experience this disease as a big nothing.
  55. A representative Italian from the South Tyrol is Reinhold Messner, perhaps the greatest mountain climber of all time.

    Typically, about one-half of Italian national ice hockey team have Tyrolian-sounding names.

    Urtijëi won the Italian “Serie A” four times. (The team has now moved though)

  56. @The Alarmist
    O/T

    This would be good fodder for a new thread:


    Harvard law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet (pictured), believes that homeschooling can be 'dangerous' because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.

    ....

    'I think that's dangerous. I think it's always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority,' she said.


     

    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8242579/Harvard-law-professor-calls-homeschooling-dangerous.html

    Harvard law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet (pictured), believes that homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.

    Per spec. Leftism and the reigning minoritarian globalism is a totalitarian ideology. Heretics must be suppressed.

    But beyond that these people do not produce children–or sufficient children. Like the Shakers they must pull in the children from normal healthy families, to corrupt their brains and destroy their fertility.

    In fact *that is their job*, their “raison d’être”–to try and destroy the normal healthy families and culture of deplorables. Having a bunch of flyover country white people educating their own kids, and encouraging them toward normal healthy lives is an affront to their whole project, their conception of their own virtue and their very existence.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    Hence the rush to reopen schools ... the statists realise they've given up a major channel of indoctrination.
  57. @AnotherDad
    Agree.

    At the beginning i was mostly annoyed by the hysterics. It was evident immediately that this wasn't the plague. And--with the exception of some young medical staff getting mega-doses and hit with cytokine storms--was basically an early cull.

    Now i'm annoyed with the "just the flu bro" loons who can't do basic math--basic "sanity checks" which are the core of intelligent thought. (And even post graphs that they can't interpret.)

    What's needed is a reasoned response that walks us through to a vaccine, or baring that clear, easy treatment that we have the infrastructure to provide. My take is that
    -- sick people stay home
    -- old/weak locked up
    -- wash paws, sanitizer
    -- masks in indoor public venues (stores)
    -- skip the big close-contact open-mouth gatherings--ex. clubbing
    and you've whacked this--probably any respiratory disease--to replication ratio <1.

    But even if we went with "let it rip!", the "take out your dead" wagons would be full of old, sick folks.

    As long as Soylent Green can still be made with china-virus infected dead, there is no threat to civilization whatsoever.

    — old/weak locked up

    The problem is that we already have the old/weak locked up, but in such a way that they can all get infected instead of protected. If the GOAL was to infect and kill off the maximum # of vulnerable elderly we couldn’t have done it much better. There are nursing homes where they now assume that 100% of the staff and patients have been infected. But meanwhile the schools are closed even though the young experience this disease as a big nothing.

    • Agree: Polynikes
    • Replies: @Travis
    In New Jersey 2,100 of the 4,700 deaths were among nursing home residents. This is the same pattern we see in Pennsylvania and Connecticut....in these states we see that half the fatalities are among elderly nursing home residents
  58. ‘Immunity of flock’ sounds a lot kinder than ‘herd immunity’. Perhaps some PR guru spin doctor should make that change for a future outbreak 😉

  59. @AnotherDad
    Thanks 349. Decent analysis.

    This is what you'd expect. Contra the "it's the flu bro" loons, whenever there's a high rate of infection you see a decent number of deaths. Jamie12's reply is on point: Whatever data you get you have to adjust for age structure. But the deaths are there.

    Hopefully we are continuously learning how to manage this so that the deaths go down, all the younger/healthier cases make it through, and remaining deaths are only old/sick and just an "early cull".

    Contra the “it’s the flu bro” loons,

    Stop groveling for “strange new respect” with Steve and Ron. It’s unseemly.

    • Agree: Mehen
  60. @Jack D

    History is full of places wiped out by disease in an effort to open up trade too soon.
     
    We are not getting "wiped out" by this disease. Even in the worst hit areas, you are talking about 1% mortality, with mortality concentrated among the old and diseased. The young and the healthy mostly experience this disease as a seasonal cold or flu at worst, and often have no symptoms at all. There are exceptions but they are rare - the very opposite of a wipe out. As sad as the loss of the elderly may be for their loved ones, such losses would not "wipe us out" - in fact it would leave us better off in many respects.

    And not just financially. Read the story of the Andover Nursing Home, hard hit by Covid.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html

    The place was a urine scented hell on earth even before Covid. America is full of these human warehouses filled with people who are not yet dead but not really alive in any meaningful way either. In the past, it was understood that while it is a sin for man to take matters into his own hand, if Providence should send a plague that would take such sufferers into their eternal rest, this was a blessing to us all, most of all to those relieved of their suffering.

    “America is full of these human warehouses filled with people who are not yet dead but not really alive in any meaningful way either.”

    You are way overgeneralizing here. Assuredly, there are nursing homes that have deplorable conditions. But a good many are clean and nurturing environments. Who are to say that the people living there are definitively NOT living a full life?

    “In the past, it was understood that while it is a sin for man to take matters into his own hand, if Providence should send a plague that would take such sufferers into their eternal rest, this was a blessing to us all, most of all to those relieved of their suffering.”

    Assuming that they are suffering, and assuming that people seek God to intervene to relieve this suffering.

  61. @The Alarmist
    O/T

    This would be good fodder for a new thread:


    Harvard law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet (pictured), believes that homeschooling can be 'dangerous' because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.

    ....

    'I think that's dangerous. I think it's always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority,' she said.


     

    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8242579/Harvard-law-professor-calls-homeschooling-dangerous.html

    Not dangerous, but indoctrinating, regardless if the homeschooling is done by a raving lunatic liberal or conservative.

    • Replies: @ic1000
    Not dangerous, but indoctrinating, regardless if the schooling is done by a raving lunatic liberal or conservative.
  62. @epebble
    This is very interesting data. The report says that the Feb 6th death was a Community Transmission - meaning they could not locate a chain of infection to China. If so, and if one assumes an incubation period of, say, 14 days to go from initial infection to becoming an effective active infector and three degrees of contract traceability, the very first infection could have been 42 days before, i.e. December 26, 2019. That is really close to the (global) patient zero.

    “That is really close to the (global) patient zero.”

    Epebble, yes that figures about right. Dr. Sara Cody just gave a TV briefing. She said that first known victim was a 57 yr old woman, the next 2 men, one in his 60’s, the other 70’s. Would not elaborate as to whether there was an interconnection/interaction between these 3.

    Amoung Dr. Cody’s concluding words was that “this virus is going to be with us for a very, very, very, long time. A bit note worthy in that she comes across as a measured individual.

  63. Hail says: • Website
    @Anonymous
    This link contains a PDF with the list of deceased persons in South Tyrol. Ortisei is listed as St. Ulrich:

    https://www.ildolomiti.it/cronaca/2020/coronavirus-in-alto-adige-un-nuovo-decesso-a-brunico-e-castelrotto-sono-30-i-morti-ad-appiano-da-inizio-epidemia

    It looks like 10 people died in Ortisei (out of a population of 4883). This translates into IFR (infected fatality rate) of 0.0041 or 0.41%.

    Multiply this number by two, because it's likely that not everyone has been tested and probably some more people in critical conditions are going to die in the near future, so let's say 20 dead. This would translate into an IFR of 0.8%.

    The case of Castiglione d'Adda where 70% of the population tested positive to COVID-19 leads to similar results.

    IFR is very likely in the range 0.5% - 1%, most probably around 0.7%-0.9%.

    IFR is very likely in the range 0.5% – 1%

    That is a pure fantasy-world calculation, off by a factor of 10.

    Sorry, but promoting numbers like this at this point is irresponsible.

    That the fatality rate for this flu is ~0.1% (overall; possibly higher in outlier localities, but not 10x higher in anything close to a representative-population sample) is being confirmed again and again, most recently with Stockholm County, Sweden’s latest randomized antibody study released yesterday.

    The biggest problem with the calculation you propose is that anyone who is hospitalized and in critical condition for any reason during an epidemic, will disproportionately end up positive for an epidemic-virus (because these viruses spread well in such circumstances), but the true cause of death is likely something else in many cases or most cases (“deaths with” vs. “deaths from”). More than half of deaths in Italy were nursing home patients. Any town with a larger share of nursing home (residents) is going to show higher numbers. And there may be other local factors. Zooming in on specific towns is therefore less useful than for a full-region or a full-country or a full set of countries all exposed to the epidemic.

    There is a way to test whether the two-/three-month epidemic has killed (or will kill) 1.0% of those infected, and that is: Do total-deaths for the twelve months July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020 spike to near double the normal? If that has not happened, the up-to-1.0% calculation is immediately shown to be wrong, one way or another. A second calculation is, What percentage of deaths are attributable to the Panic and breakdown of services (e.g., panicked staff abandoning nursing homes and patients dying without care; non-risk people who get heart attacks terrified of being treated at a hospital) and not to the Virus?

  64. @The Alarmist
    To the French outside Paris, Parisians are assholes ... the love goes both ways.

    I can well imagine that to be very analogous to the cultural divide between “Porteños” (arrogant, foul mouthed asshole inhabitants of Buenos Aires) and the rest of Argentina. Here, we have our NYC.

  65. Hail says: • Website
    @Old Prude
    It’s seems pretty certain at this point that my chances of catching Bat Flu are a helluva lot less than my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.

    But yeah let’s keep up the circle jerk with the stats and infection rates etc. while we voluntarily destroy our lives. Is Christmas cancelled yet?

    my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.

    I calculate that the Corona Response is, surprisingly, hundreds of times worse than the Coronavirus itself, as measured by Aggregate-Lost-Life-Years. The only question is how many hundreds of times worse it will be.

    There are lots of variables, but I actually don’t see any way this is going to be less than “hundreds of times” worse.

    To be specific, that’s hundreds of times more aggregate-lost-life-years able to be attributed to the impact of the Corona Response than to the Coronavirus itself (the latter being expected deaths from the virus, based on all we now know about total-mortality and age-condition profile). That is a dry calculation, based on the sum of all now-living people. A certain further upward-multiplier could/should be applied given that the people most hurt may be the young trying to establish themselves, the immediate future of the nation. (IOW, a nation cannot be reduced to a sum of aggregate-expected-life-years-remaining; the calculation is useful but cannot stand totally alone.)

    There is very likely to also be a fertility fall-off with the Corona Recession, as there always are fertility drops in major recessions. There are likely therefore to be millions fewer births in the West in 2021, 2022, 2023 than there would have been if we had ‘ignored’ this flu strain (which I believe we should have, especially knowing what we know now), with basic measures but no shutdowns and no media-directed ‘CoronaPanic.’ The “lost births” ramps up the ‘hit’ even further in the aggregate-lost-life-years calculation, if you include those never-to-be-born people’s expected-lifespans.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    I had read or heard something particularly disturbing. In Topeka, Kansas, the number of abortions in March was much higher than the previous March. I haven't confirmed it, but if true... those are either people despairing about the future in terms of health, or in terms of economics.

    Vox sorta confirms:
    https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21224065/coronavirus-pregnancy-kids-children-fertility-abortion-covid
    , @Alexander Turok
    I'd like to see the numbers behind that calculation. You claim that:

    If the coronavirus crisis has already cost you as much as a net of three days of lost time, you are already on the losing side
     
    Suppose you have 35 years ahead of you. Say you have a 50% chance of ever being infected and a .2% chance of death. That's 13 days right there as 365*35*.5*.002=13. But you also have to consider the cost of the days in which you are sickened. And this calculation is based on the chance of death for a young and healthy person.

    You also claim that:

    The insane response leading to unnecessary mass unemployment, and other disruption, will cause lost time for all (and already far exceeding the three-days as calculated above), but will also cause an inevitable rise in prime-age suicides, other early deaths of despair, and worse healthcare outcomes for years as people become too poor or insecure to afford medical care.
     
    This contradicts historical data on reccessions:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0
    , @danand

    "There is very likely to also be a fertility fall-off with the Corona Recession, as there always are fertility drops in major recessions. There are likely therefore to be millions fewer births in the West in 2021, 2022, 2023"
     
    Hail, just in time. according to Michael Moore's new documentary released on YouTube for Earth Day (today):

    "Jeff Gibbs director of Michael Moore's "Planet of the Humans" says “the elephant in the room” isn’t climate change or any other individual factor, but humanity itself. With our species’ population having skyrocketed in the last 200 years, we are simply in denial that mankind’s needs are exhausting Earth’s resources. “Infinite growth on a finite planet is suicide,” he says, as bleak footage of rampant deforestation (in large part to supply the dubious “clean energy” source of biomass) provide just one vivid proof. There is no obvious solution, save a massive scaling-back that capitalism-driven societies don’t even want to think about."
     
    Mr. Gibbs' conclusion is that we humans (I have to assume he limits this to only the "Western kind") have to stop reproducing, to "save" the planet.

    You can bet Gibbs would go right mum if presented with Steve's "Most Important Graph in the World".

    https://youtu.be/Zk11vI-7czE
  66. @Anonymous
    I'm suspicious to Chinese honesty about data.

    The data cut down the real figures by around 90%.

  67. @Reg Cæsar


    ...homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.
     
    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.
     
    On the other hand, a mother is far less likely to seduce her own son, or daughter.

    What's with the current crusade (apparently driven by mothers) of imprisoning female teachers for years for getting frisky with the students?

    Okay, call her a slut, ban her from the profession, put her in county jail for sodomy if her partner is a girl. But state prison, and for a decade or two? Don't we have better ways of spending our tax dollar?

    And where are the feminists? They've abandoned their sisters.

    What’s with the current crusade (apparently driven by mothers) of imprisoning female teachers for years for getting frisky with the students?

    I would assume the response of most men my age would be, “Where were these teachers when I was in school?”

    Interestingly, one of her arguments is that children are likely to be abused at home without the check provided by teachers, who are a position to notice and report these things.

  68. The hope of herd immunity seems a delusion for me – most sources say you need around 60% of the population to be infected for herd immunity to start working, and no country is nowhere near this – not even the hardest hit

    • Replies: @Jack D
    First of all, we don't really know how many have really been infected, but probably a lot more than the known # of cases. 2nd, it's probably going to take another wave (or 2 or 3 if there's no vaccine) before we get to herd immunity. By then (next winter, after the election) the mass hysteria will be over and no one will dream of ever shutting the whole economy down again - it will be just accepted as another type of seasonal flu that carries off the elderly every winter. We've had bad flu years forever and no one ever thought of locking up the entire population and ending all commerce as the solution before and no one ever will again. This, like Salem Witch Fever, is unique to this particular moment in history.
  69. @AnotherDad

    Harvard law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet (pictured), believes that homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.
     
    Per spec. Leftism and the reigning minoritarian globalism is a totalitarian ideology. Heretics must be suppressed.

    But beyond that these people do not produce children--or sufficient children. Like the Shakers they must pull in the children from normal healthy families, to corrupt their brains and destroy their fertility.

    In fact *that is their job*, their "raison d'être"--to try and destroy the normal healthy families and culture of deplorables. Having a bunch of flyover country white people educating their own kids, and encouraging them toward normal healthy lives is an affront to their whole project, their conception of their own virtue and their very existence.

    Hence the rush to reopen schools … the statists realise they’ve given up a major channel of indoctrination.

  70. @Corvinus
    Not dangerous, but indoctrinating, regardless if the homeschooling is done by a raving lunatic liberal or conservative.

    Not dangerous, but indoctrinating, regardless if the schooling is done by a raving lunatic liberal or conservative.

  71. @Jack D

    — old/weak locked up
     
    The problem is that we already have the old/weak locked up, but in such a way that they can all get infected instead of protected. If the GOAL was to infect and kill off the maximum # of vulnerable elderly we couldn't have done it much better. There are nursing homes where they now assume that 100% of the staff and patients have been infected. But meanwhile the schools are closed even though the young experience this disease as a big nothing.

    In New Jersey 2,100 of the 4,700 deaths were among nursing home residents. This is the same pattern we see in Pennsylvania and Connecticut….in these states we see that half the fatalities are among elderly nursing home residents

  72. There is NO test for CV. There is a test for general viral activity, and EVERYONE who has had a flu shot in the last 10 years tests positive.

  73. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @weejax
    and please, for anyone listening, call this thing TOM HANKS DISEASE, courtesy of Norm MacDonald.

    and please, for anyone listening, call this thing TOM HANKS DISEASE, courtesy of Norm MacDonald.

    1. Steve, didn’t you originate the term, “Tom Hanks Disease?”

    2. I reason to believe Norm is a regular reader, and sometimes anonymous commenter on this website.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I got "Tom Hanks Disease" from a Norm MacDonald tweet.
  74. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @Old Prude
    It’s seems pretty certain at this point that my chances of catching Bat Flu are a helluva lot less than my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.

    But yeah let’s keep up the circle jerk with the stats and infection rates etc. while we voluntarily destroy our lives. Is Christmas cancelled yet?

    It’s seems pretty certain at this point that my chances of catching Bat Flu are a helluva lot less than my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.

    I’m a landlord. I recently put a renovated apartment up for rent, two weeks before the lockdown. I would say I priced the rent a bit on the high side. I had two contenders. One was a couple with one if their moms. Good credit. Solid, virus-proof jobs, except one was a nurse. The other was a late twenty-something business owner and another roommate. Type A personality, ran his own health club. Solid credit.

    Tom Hanks Virus hit, they all dropped out immediately. The health club guy was pretty shook up. Everything he had was tied up in that place, and it was closed, for good as far as he was concerned. Everything he busted his ass for, borrowed from relatives to get on its feet. Gone. Instead of moving to my place, he was contemplating moving back into his parent’s place. He got thoroughly whipped.

    The other family dropped out because the nurse didn’t want to move his mother in law in with them, since hw was going to be around tom Hanks virus all day.

    I then pledged to myself I would only accept tenants with co-signers whom I could verify were in good shape, since I didn’t want to get hung out to dry for rents. New applicants showed up a few days later, co-signer in tow, and I got the place rented.

    Doesn’t suck to be me, but many regular working joe’s, of any age, are in hell about now. In the trenches, amongst the people who get the work done in this country, life is very intense. When discussing what should happen next, they should be a top priority.

    • Agree: Old Prude
  75. @dearieme
    It's ages since I saw a histogram like that. Do I remember rightly that Turkey was a keen proponent of them? Or was it George Box?
  76. @Hail

    my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.
     
    I calculate that the Corona Response is, surprisingly, hundreds of times worse than the Coronavirus itself, as measured by Aggregate-Lost-Life-Years. The only question is how many hundreds of times worse it will be.

    There are lots of variables, but I actually don't see any way this is going to be less than "hundreds of times" worse.

    To be specific, that's hundreds of times more aggregate-lost-life-years able to be attributed to the impact of the Corona Response than to the Coronavirus itself (the latter being expected deaths from the virus, based on all we now know about total-mortality and age-condition profile). That is a dry calculation, based on the sum of all now-living people. A certain further upward-multiplier could/should be applied given that the people most hurt may be the young trying to establish themselves, the immediate future of the nation. (IOW, a nation cannot be reduced to a sum of aggregate-expected-life-years-remaining; the calculation is useful but cannot stand totally alone.)

    There is very likely to also be a fertility fall-off with the Corona Recession, as there always are fertility drops in major recessions. There are likely therefore to be millions fewer births in the West in 2021, 2022, 2023 than there would have been if we had 'ignored' this flu strain (which I believe we should have, especially knowing what we know now), with basic measures but no shutdowns and no media-directed 'CoronaPanic.' The "lost births" ramps up the 'hit' even further in the aggregate-lost-life-years calculation, if you include those never-to-be-born people's expected-lifespans.

    I had read or heard something particularly disturbing. In Topeka, Kansas, the number of abortions in March was much higher than the previous March. I haven’t confirmed it, but if true… those are either people despairing about the future in terms of health, or in terms of economics.

    Vox sorta confirms:
    https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21224065/coronavirus-pregnancy-kids-children-fertility-abortion-covid

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    From the article:

    She ended up going a week without the medication and having an unplanned pregnancy. Thanks to the economic crisis that has come along with the pandemic, she and her partner are both facing furloughs from their jobs. Yeh, a family medicine physician in Seattle and a fellow with the group Physicians for Reproductive Health, recently met with them via telemedicine to talk about whether they wanted to continue the pregnancy.
     
    Mainstream conservatives frequently accuse pro-choicers of being secret eugenicists. This is wrong as far as it's directed against the ideological Leftists. But I think a lot of ordinary people look at a situation like this and secretly approve of the unintended eugenic effect.
  77. @Anonymous

    and please, for anyone listening, call this thing TOM HANKS DISEASE, courtesy of Norm MacDonald.
     
    1. Steve, didn’t you originate the term, "Tom Hanks Disease?"

    2. I reason to believe Norm is a regular reader, and sometimes anonymous commenter on this website.

    I got “Tom Hanks Disease” from a Norm MacDonald tweet.

    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    That's pretty harsh, Steve. I didn't realize you disliked Norm so much.
    , @MEH 0910
    https://twitter.com/tomhanks/status/1255543380659978240
  78. @Jack D

    ‘Herd immunity’ sure sounds like magical thinking to me.

     

    It's not magic, it's just math. Herd immunity is a real thing that can be observed in the wild - in herds of animals, thus the name. Think of a forest planted on a checkerboard grid where most of the trees have been replaced by artificial Christmas trees. Any tree that gets hit by lightning can still catch on fire but if most of the trees around it are no longer flammable then the fire will die out and the whole forest will not burn. In order for the forest to be "immune" to forest fires, you don't have to replace every single tree with a metal one. Mathematically it can be shown that when X% are metal there are no longer enough flammable ones left for the fire to propagate in a chain reaction. Maybe if you are unlucky, there will still be another flammable one next to the one that is on fire and that one will burn, but mathematically there little chance that it can go further than that. The scary thing about epidemics is their exponential nature - if 1 carrier on average infects 2 people, then those 2 will infect 4 and 4 will infect 8 and so on until pretty soon millions are infected. But if 1 person infects less than 1 person on average then instead of taking off exponentially, the series dies into nothingness 1, 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, etc.

    Obviously humans are not fixed in place like trees but the same holds - when most people are immune to a disease, an epidemic dies out even when immunity is not 100%. On the rare occasions when someone infectious appears he can be contact traced and the local brush fire he has ignited stamped out.


    And I don’t think we know yet if a positive antibody test even means they’re really immune.
     
    While this is technically true, surviving most viruses confers at least temporary immunity to a disease. People who know a lot about this say that while we don't "know" in the sense of having scientific proof, they would be really amazed if you didn't get some immunity by surviving Wuhan Virus.

    Yes, as I said, it’s just statistics. But that only kicks in around 90%, and everybody’s using magical thinking to stretch it far lower.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    No one knows when herd immunity kicks in for Coronavirus. It varies with the degree of infectiousness (the R0) of each disease. For Covid, R0 is estimated to be between 1.4–3 which corresponds to a herd immunity % of 29–74%. Where did you get 90% from? It's not magical thinking at all. These numbers are the best guess at the moment and none of them are as high as 90%. For some reason with this disease, people use the absence of information to assume the absolute worst. The absolute worst is (by definition) not impossible but nor is it likely either.
  79. @The one
    Singapore: 9,125 positives, 11 deaths

    They must be doing something different than most of the world. What is it? Possibilities:

    1. More testing which is find more mild cases other countries are missing.

    2. More testing which is finding false positives.

    3. Lower viral load in initial infections, perhaps due to climate.

    4. Much better care for the afflicted.

    5. Fraud or misreporting.

    6. More deaths will occur later.

    The problem with 1.-3. is that there are quite a few hospitalizations. I’m not exactly sure what these numbers mean, but they seem to be saying that around half of their cases have resulted in hospitalizations:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200422103854/https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

    So to those who want to use this data to say “it’s not nearly as bad as commonly believed,” why are there so many hospitalizations? There seem to be anomalously few deaths but not anomalously few hospitalizations, which is what you’d expect if Singapore was finding mild cases missed by others.

    There’s also the data from the Diamond Princess.

    • Replies: @The one
    I think it is combination of
    1. Majority of the infections are Bangladeshi migrant workers, age range 20-40.
    2. Climate. There still has been no major outbreak in a tropical country. Assume that humidity and temperature reduce contagion AND symptoms.
    3. Extreme protection of over 65s.

    To answer your question, the hospitlizations are very precautionary. I personally know two people who felt a little unwell and were instantly hospitalized (out in a special hotel).

    Note Singapore is not particularly over-testing. On average 10% positive rate.

  80. @Hail

    my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.
     
    I calculate that the Corona Response is, surprisingly, hundreds of times worse than the Coronavirus itself, as measured by Aggregate-Lost-Life-Years. The only question is how many hundreds of times worse it will be.

    There are lots of variables, but I actually don't see any way this is going to be less than "hundreds of times" worse.

    To be specific, that's hundreds of times more aggregate-lost-life-years able to be attributed to the impact of the Corona Response than to the Coronavirus itself (the latter being expected deaths from the virus, based on all we now know about total-mortality and age-condition profile). That is a dry calculation, based on the sum of all now-living people. A certain further upward-multiplier could/should be applied given that the people most hurt may be the young trying to establish themselves, the immediate future of the nation. (IOW, a nation cannot be reduced to a sum of aggregate-expected-life-years-remaining; the calculation is useful but cannot stand totally alone.)

    There is very likely to also be a fertility fall-off with the Corona Recession, as there always are fertility drops in major recessions. There are likely therefore to be millions fewer births in the West in 2021, 2022, 2023 than there would have been if we had 'ignored' this flu strain (which I believe we should have, especially knowing what we know now), with basic measures but no shutdowns and no media-directed 'CoronaPanic.' The "lost births" ramps up the 'hit' even further in the aggregate-lost-life-years calculation, if you include those never-to-be-born people's expected-lifespans.

    I’d like to see the numbers behind that calculation. You claim that:

    If the coronavirus crisis has already cost you as much as a net of three days of lost time, you are already on the losing side

    Suppose you have 35 years ahead of you. Say you have a 50% chance of ever being infected and a .2% chance of death. That’s 13 days right there as 365*35*.5*.002=13. But you also have to consider the cost of the days in which you are sickened. And this calculation is based on the chance of death for a young and healthy person.

    You also claim that:

    The insane response leading to unnecessary mass unemployment, and other disruption, will cause lost time for all (and already far exceeding the three-days as calculated above), but will also cause an inevitable rise in prime-age suicides, other early deaths of despair, and worse healthcare outcomes for years as people become too poor or insecure to afford medical care.

    This contradicts historical data on reccessions:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0

    • Replies: @Hail

    This contradicts historical data on reccessions:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0
     
    That article says nothing about fertility that I see, but about death rates of the living.

    Here you can see the 'hit' fertility took during/after the recession that hit in 2008:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/fertility19802013_b.png

    Total Fertility Rates by Race in the USA, 1980-2013

    If a drop of just 0.2 TFR points occurs, as observed with the last recession for US White women (and greater in magnitude for groups that were in the 2000s in a "Bubble Economy fertility-bubble," notably US Hispanics), how many lost people does that translate to over, say, five years?

    It could mean that if 10 million births are supposed to occur to White US women (2m/year/5 years), there would only be 8.5 million to 9 million actually born. That's a net loss of up to 1.5 million people, immediately swamping the sacred CoronaDeaths the media loves so much.
  81. @Steve Sailer
    I got "Tom Hanks Disease" from a Norm MacDonald tweet.

    That’s pretty harsh, Steve. I didn’t realize you disliked Norm so much.

  82. @TomSchmidt
    I had read or heard something particularly disturbing. In Topeka, Kansas, the number of abortions in March was much higher than the previous March. I haven't confirmed it, but if true... those are either people despairing about the future in terms of health, or in terms of economics.

    Vox sorta confirms:
    https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21224065/coronavirus-pregnancy-kids-children-fertility-abortion-covid

    From the article:

    She ended up going a week without the medication and having an unplanned pregnancy. Thanks to the economic crisis that has come along with the pandemic, she and her partner are both facing furloughs from their jobs. Yeh, a family medicine physician in Seattle and a fellow with the group Physicians for Reproductive Health, recently met with them via telemedicine to talk about whether they wanted to continue the pregnancy.

    Mainstream conservatives frequently accuse pro-choicers of being secret eugenicists. This is wrong as far as it’s directed against the ideological Leftists. But I think a lot of ordinary people look at a situation like this and secretly approve of the unintended eugenic effect.

    • Replies: @anon
    Are there people who are unaware of OTC birth control? If so, they probably shouldn't be reproducing. Heck, Plan B is OTC and is available in Walmart and Target.
  83. @Reg Cæsar


    ...homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents authoritarian control over their children.
     
    By powerful ones, she means the parents. Said by a statist without any irony.
     
    On the other hand, a mother is far less likely to seduce her own son, or daughter.

    What's with the current crusade (apparently driven by mothers) of imprisoning female teachers for years for getting frisky with the students?

    Okay, call her a slut, ban her from the profession, put her in county jail for sodomy if her partner is a girl. But state prison, and for a decade or two? Don't we have better ways of spending our tax dollar?

    And where are the feminists? They've abandoned their sisters.

    You mention this a lot. Personally, I think you’re a bit too interested in this topic.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    You mention this a lot. Personally, I think you’re a bit too interested in this topic.
     
    A cousin of my wife inadvertently married one of these women. They were barely settled in their new home when she was hauled off. She's in the state pen now, listed under her married name. As if that family hadn't enough to sully it.

    It's this blurring of the sexes that I object to. Ted Cruz lambasted his colleagues for passing a bill adding women to the conscription registry. (As if 15m weren't enough; they want 30m.) Four years later, it could happen again, and Donald Trump still hasn't weighed in on the subject.
  84. @Hail

    my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.
     
    I calculate that the Corona Response is, surprisingly, hundreds of times worse than the Coronavirus itself, as measured by Aggregate-Lost-Life-Years. The only question is how many hundreds of times worse it will be.

    There are lots of variables, but I actually don't see any way this is going to be less than "hundreds of times" worse.

    To be specific, that's hundreds of times more aggregate-lost-life-years able to be attributed to the impact of the Corona Response than to the Coronavirus itself (the latter being expected deaths from the virus, based on all we now know about total-mortality and age-condition profile). That is a dry calculation, based on the sum of all now-living people. A certain further upward-multiplier could/should be applied given that the people most hurt may be the young trying to establish themselves, the immediate future of the nation. (IOW, a nation cannot be reduced to a sum of aggregate-expected-life-years-remaining; the calculation is useful but cannot stand totally alone.)

    There is very likely to also be a fertility fall-off with the Corona Recession, as there always are fertility drops in major recessions. There are likely therefore to be millions fewer births in the West in 2021, 2022, 2023 than there would have been if we had 'ignored' this flu strain (which I believe we should have, especially knowing what we know now), with basic measures but no shutdowns and no media-directed 'CoronaPanic.' The "lost births" ramps up the 'hit' even further in the aggregate-lost-life-years calculation, if you include those never-to-be-born people's expected-lifespans.

    “There is very likely to also be a fertility fall-off with the Corona Recession, as there always are fertility drops in major recessions. There are likely therefore to be millions fewer births in the West in 2021, 2022, 2023”

    Hail, just in time. according to Michael Moore’s new documentary released on YouTube for Earth Day (today):

    “Jeff Gibbs director of Michael Moore’s “Planet of the Humans” says “the elephant in the room” isn’t climate change or any other individual factor, but humanity itself. With our species’ population having skyrocketed in the last 200 years, we are simply in denial that mankind’s needs are exhausting Earth’s resources. “Infinite growth on a finite planet is suicide,” he says, as bleak footage of rampant deforestation (in large part to supply the dubious “clean energy” source of biomass) provide just one vivid proof. There is no obvious solution, save a massive scaling-back that capitalism-driven societies don’t even want to think about.”

    Mr. Gibbs’ conclusion is that we humans (I have to assume he limits this to only the “Western kind”) have to stop reproducing, to “save” the planet.

    You can bet Gibbs would go right mum if presented with Steve’s “Most Important Graph in the World”.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    I haven't seen this documentary but I really doubt that it says that only white people need to stop reproducing. Leftists are stupid and innumerate but not THAT stupid and innumerate. White people are around 11.5% of the world's population and shrinking so even if white people were to become extinct it would hardly change anything. Anyone, even the most ardent doctrinaire Leftist, who is concerned about population growth understands that it can't be addressed solely among white people.
  85. @Alexander Turok
    They must be doing something different than most of the world. What is it? Possibilities:

    1. More testing which is find more mild cases other countries are missing.

    2. More testing which is finding false positives.

    3. Lower viral load in initial infections, perhaps due to climate.

    4. Much better care for the afflicted.

    5. Fraud or misreporting.

    6. More deaths will occur later.

    The problem with 1.-3. is that there are quite a few hospitalizations. I'm not exactly sure what these numbers mean, but they seem to be saying that around half of their cases have resulted in hospitalizations:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200422103854/https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

    So to those who want to use this data to say "it's not nearly as bad as commonly believed," why are there so many hospitalizations? There seem to be anomalously few deaths but not anomalously few hospitalizations, which is what you'd expect if Singapore was finding mild cases missed by others.

    There's also the data from the Diamond Princess.

    I think it is combination of
    1. Majority of the infections are Bangladeshi migrant workers, age range 20-40.
    2. Climate. There still has been no major outbreak in a tropical country. Assume that humidity and temperature reduce contagion AND symptoms.
    3. Extreme protection of over 65s.

    To answer your question, the hospitlizations are very precautionary. I personally know two people who felt a little unwell and were instantly hospitalized (out in a special hotel).

    Note Singapore is not particularly over-testing. On average 10% positive rate.

  86. @Andy
    The hope of herd immunity seems a delusion for me - most sources say you need around 60% of the population to be infected for herd immunity to start working, and no country is nowhere near this - not even the hardest hit

    First of all, we don’t really know how many have really been infected, but probably a lot more than the known # of cases. 2nd, it’s probably going to take another wave (or 2 or 3 if there’s no vaccine) before we get to herd immunity. By then (next winter, after the election) the mass hysteria will be over and no one will dream of ever shutting the whole economy down again – it will be just accepted as another type of seasonal flu that carries off the elderly every winter. We’ve had bad flu years forever and no one ever thought of locking up the entire population and ending all commerce as the solution before and no one ever will again. This, like Salem Witch Fever, is unique to this particular moment in history.

    • Replies: @Warner
    Ultimate Trump Derangement Syndrome is how I perceive it. The TDS that seized up three whole world for some number of months.
    , @ben tillman

    First of all, we don’t really know how many have really been infected, but probably a lot more than the known # of cases.
     
    Yes, it's become more and more evident that my wife and daughter and I must have been infected and symptomatic while my son was asymptomatic.
  87. @robot
    Yes, as I said, it's just statistics. But that only kicks in around 90%, and everybody's using magical thinking to stretch it far lower.

    No one knows when herd immunity kicks in for Coronavirus. It varies with the degree of infectiousness (the R0) of each disease. For Covid, R0 is estimated to be between 1.4–3 which corresponds to a herd immunity % of 29–74%. Where did you get 90% from? It’s not magical thinking at all. These numbers are the best guess at the moment and none of them are as high as 90%. For some reason with this disease, people use the absence of information to assume the absolute worst. The absolute worst is (by definition) not impossible but nor is it likely either.

    • Replies: @robot
    search on
    «herd immunity 90%»
    , @res
    Measles needs about 90% for herd immunity. Because it is roughly the worst case for that it is the example which is used to bludgeon the anti-vaxxers with so the number gets a fair amount of press.
  88. @Alexander Turok
    From the article:

    She ended up going a week without the medication and having an unplanned pregnancy. Thanks to the economic crisis that has come along with the pandemic, she and her partner are both facing furloughs from their jobs. Yeh, a family medicine physician in Seattle and a fellow with the group Physicians for Reproductive Health, recently met with them via telemedicine to talk about whether they wanted to continue the pregnancy.
     
    Mainstream conservatives frequently accuse pro-choicers of being secret eugenicists. This is wrong as far as it's directed against the ideological Leftists. But I think a lot of ordinary people look at a situation like this and secretly approve of the unintended eugenic effect.

    Are there people who are unaware of OTC birth control? If so, they probably shouldn’t be reproducing. Heck, Plan B is OTC and is available in Walmart and Target.

  89. @danand

    "There is very likely to also be a fertility fall-off with the Corona Recession, as there always are fertility drops in major recessions. There are likely therefore to be millions fewer births in the West in 2021, 2022, 2023"
     
    Hail, just in time. according to Michael Moore's new documentary released on YouTube for Earth Day (today):

    "Jeff Gibbs director of Michael Moore's "Planet of the Humans" says “the elephant in the room” isn’t climate change or any other individual factor, but humanity itself. With our species’ population having skyrocketed in the last 200 years, we are simply in denial that mankind’s needs are exhausting Earth’s resources. “Infinite growth on a finite planet is suicide,” he says, as bleak footage of rampant deforestation (in large part to supply the dubious “clean energy” source of biomass) provide just one vivid proof. There is no obvious solution, save a massive scaling-back that capitalism-driven societies don’t even want to think about."
     
    Mr. Gibbs' conclusion is that we humans (I have to assume he limits this to only the "Western kind") have to stop reproducing, to "save" the planet.

    You can bet Gibbs would go right mum if presented with Steve's "Most Important Graph in the World".

    https://youtu.be/Zk11vI-7czE

    I haven’t seen this documentary but I really doubt that it says that only white people need to stop reproducing. Leftists are stupid and innumerate but not THAT stupid and innumerate. White people are around 11.5% of the world’s population and shrinking so even if white people were to become extinct it would hardly change anything. Anyone, even the most ardent doctrinaire Leftist, who is concerned about population growth understands that it can’t be addressed solely among white people.

    • Replies: @Whiskey
    On the contrary. Lefty does argue only Whites must go extinct. Non Whites especially Africans are magical and heal the earth. See: the Green Mile. This is what they actually believe.

    Cuomo told the unemployed that if the wanted jobs they should have been cops, firemen, or health care workers.

    That is the Dem line for the unemployed.
    , @PiltdownMan
    I recently showed these to a friend with a Ph.D. in public policy from a top school, and many years experience in her field, global governance, but she had not encountered a population pyramid diagram before, nor was she able to appreciate what one implied. There's a lot of innumeracy out there.

    https://i.imgur.com/1rBMsXh.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/yAVzDC4.jpg
  90. @AnotherDad
    Thanks 349. Decent analysis.

    This is what you'd expect. Contra the "it's the flu bro" loons, whenever there's a high rate of infection you see a decent number of deaths. Jamie12's reply is on point: Whatever data you get you have to adjust for age structure. But the deaths are there.

    Hopefully we are continuously learning how to manage this so that the deaths go down, all the younger/healthier cases make it through, and remaining deaths are only old/sick and just an "early cull".

    But the deaths are there.

    Where? Excess mortality isn’t showing what it should every death reported as Covid19 was an additional death to normal life. Reported without a test, suspected, or projected (have we not learned our lesson by now?) should be treated with suspicion. Yes, NYC is bad, but that is the case usually with the flu. If you go to the CDC’s website and look at the state map there are always states hit harder. They are usually in the upper midwest or NE, often with it being NY. Apparently living in a cold weather, dense city where you’re cramped into tiny apts and eat in tiny restaurants all winter is bad for virus transmission. Who knew?

    If you don’t like the flu comparison, I’m open to a better one. But this is literally very similar to the flu. It’d be like if the flu hit and we didn’t have a vaccine for it. Occasionally the vaccine for the flu doesn’t work and mortality spikes as a result.

    • Replies: @prosa123
    NYC's problem is not so much small apartments as overcrowded apartments. In some neighborhoods, especially the hard-hit sections of central Queens, it is not at all uncommon to have 12 unrelated people sharing a 3-room apartment.
  91. @Jack D
    No one knows when herd immunity kicks in for Coronavirus. It varies with the degree of infectiousness (the R0) of each disease. For Covid, R0 is estimated to be between 1.4–3 which corresponds to a herd immunity % of 29–74%. Where did you get 90% from? It's not magical thinking at all. These numbers are the best guess at the moment and none of them are as high as 90%. For some reason with this disease, people use the absence of information to assume the absolute worst. The absolute worst is (by definition) not impossible but nor is it likely either.

    search on
    «herd immunity 90%»

  92. @Old Prude
    It’s seems pretty certain at this point that my chances of catching Bat Flu are a helluva lot less than my life being turned upside down when our company goes under and I lose the job I’ve held for 25 years.

    But yeah let’s keep up the circle jerk with the stats and infection rates etc. while we voluntarily destroy our lives. Is Christmas cancelled yet?

    One projection (I know…take with a grain of salt) I read from a medical group out of the UK estimated an additional 120,000 deaths from cancer over the next 5 years. If that’s even remotely close, that alone would argue against any strict measures. Then add in the same factor for deaths for heart disease, suicides, and crime, and pretty soon we’re talking about real numbers. That doesn’t even get into the non-death toll: mental illness, depression, addiction, loss of economic opportunities, etc…

    We might look back at this in a few years and conclude these measures aren’t worth it unless is disease is known to likely kill millions! And we did it for a small fraction of that.

  93. @YetAnotherAnon

    "South Tyrol
    Population 530,000
    Deaths 251"
     
    That's a 500+ per million population death rate, which would put South Tyrol top of the Worldometer death rate charts.

    Lovely place, South Tyrol, mostly German speaking, detached from Austria after WWI. We were there on the 50th anniversary of the Austrian Anschluss, and it was very odd to hear Hitler's speeches coming from the ski lift-attendant's hut as we went up the mountain.

    That’s 0.05% and we know that 50% of the population are already infected

  94. @Polynikes

    But the deaths are there.
     
    Where? Excess mortality isn't showing what it should every death reported as Covid19 was an additional death to normal life. Reported without a test, suspected, or projected (have we not learned our lesson by now?) should be treated with suspicion. Yes, NYC is bad, but that is the case usually with the flu. If you go to the CDC's website and look at the state map there are always states hit harder. They are usually in the upper midwest or NE, often with it being NY. Apparently living in a cold weather, dense city where you're cramped into tiny apts and eat in tiny restaurants all winter is bad for virus transmission. Who knew?

    If you don't like the flu comparison, I'm open to a better one. But this is literally very similar to the flu. It'd be like if the flu hit and we didn't have a vaccine for it. Occasionally the vaccine for the flu doesn't work and mortality spikes as a result.

    NYC’s problem is not so much small apartments as overcrowded apartments. In some neighborhoods, especially the hard-hit sections of central Queens, it is not at all uncommon to have 12 unrelated people sharing a 3-room apartment.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    San Francisco has a fair amount of crowding per room as well, but a low death rate.

    I think it's pretty likely that there different strains with different death rates going around. On the other hand, it's kind of lazy to use assumptions about that to explain away weird divergences like crowded New York and crowded San Francisco having much different experiences. So it's probably better discipline to feel like analysts ought to keep banging their heads away at trying to find universal explanations for all these contradictory patterns rather than just give up and attribute that which they can't explain to rapidly evolving differences in local versions of the germ.

    , @Reg Cæsar

    NYC’s problem is not so much small apartments as overcrowded apartments. In some neighborhoods, especially the hard-hit sections of central Queens, it is not at all uncommon to have 12 unrelated people sharing a 3-room apartment.
     
    Lists of wacky laws like to include NYC's prohibition of sleeping in bathtubs. They rarely delve into why the city saw fit to outlaw this.


    Evidently in the tenement days, one slept in the tub when all the other square footage was taken.

    https://www.history.com/.image/c_fit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cfl_progressive%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_620/MTU5Mzk0OTQ3NjIyMTE4Njcz/jacob-riis-tenements-514877022.jpg

    https://www.skyscraper.org/housing-density/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/06/Tenement_Room.png

  95. @Jack D
    I haven't seen this documentary but I really doubt that it says that only white people need to stop reproducing. Leftists are stupid and innumerate but not THAT stupid and innumerate. White people are around 11.5% of the world's population and shrinking so even if white people were to become extinct it would hardly change anything. Anyone, even the most ardent doctrinaire Leftist, who is concerned about population growth understands that it can't be addressed solely among white people.

    On the contrary. Lefty does argue only Whites must go extinct. Non Whites especially Africans are magical and heal the earth. See: the Green Mile. This is what they actually believe.

    Cuomo told the unemployed that if the wanted jobs they should have been cops, firemen, or health care workers.

    That is the Dem line for the unemployed.

  96. @prosa123
    NYC's problem is not so much small apartments as overcrowded apartments. In some neighborhoods, especially the hard-hit sections of central Queens, it is not at all uncommon to have 12 unrelated people sharing a 3-room apartment.

    San Francisco has a fair amount of crowding per room as well, but a low death rate.

    I think it’s pretty likely that there different strains with different death rates going around. On the other hand, it’s kind of lazy to use assumptions about that to explain away weird divergences like crowded New York and crowded San Francisco having much different experiences. So it’s probably better discipline to feel like analysts ought to keep banging their heads away at trying to find universal explanations for all these contradictory patterns rather than just give up and attribute that which they can’t explain to rapidly evolving differences in local versions of the germ.

    • Agree: PiltdownMan
  97. @Jack D
    First of all, we don't really know how many have really been infected, but probably a lot more than the known # of cases. 2nd, it's probably going to take another wave (or 2 or 3 if there's no vaccine) before we get to herd immunity. By then (next winter, after the election) the mass hysteria will be over and no one will dream of ever shutting the whole economy down again - it will be just accepted as another type of seasonal flu that carries off the elderly every winter. We've had bad flu years forever and no one ever thought of locking up the entire population and ending all commerce as the solution before and no one ever will again. This, like Salem Witch Fever, is unique to this particular moment in history.

    Ultimate Trump Derangement Syndrome is how I perceive it. The TDS that seized up three whole world for some number of months.

    • Agree: The one
    • Replies: @Keypusher
    Actually, it’s believing that China and Western Europe shut down because of Trump that is utterly deranged.
  98. @prosa123
    NYC's problem is not so much small apartments as overcrowded apartments. In some neighborhoods, especially the hard-hit sections of central Queens, it is not at all uncommon to have 12 unrelated people sharing a 3-room apartment.

    NYC’s problem is not so much small apartments as overcrowded apartments. In some neighborhoods, especially the hard-hit sections of central Queens, it is not at all uncommon to have 12 unrelated people sharing a 3-room apartment.

    Lists of wacky laws like to include NYC’s prohibition of sleeping in bathtubs. They rarely delve into why the city saw fit to outlaw this.

    Evidently in the tenement days, one slept in the tub when all the other square footage was taken.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    Singapore went from being a model of controlling Covid-19 until a couple of weeks ago to fighting desperately to contain an outbreak in its foreign worker dorms, which it overlooked.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/how-singapore-flipped-from-virus-hero-to-cautionary-tale

    https://i.imgur.com/YYJX56X.jpg

  99. @Intelligent Dasein
    You mention this a lot. Personally, I think you're a bit too interested in this topic.

    You mention this a lot. Personally, I think you’re a bit too interested in this topic.

    A cousin of my wife inadvertently married one of these women. They were barely settled in their new home when she was hauled off. She’s in the state pen now, listed under her married name. As if that family hadn’t enough to sully it.

    It’s this blurring of the sexes that I object to. Ted Cruz lambasted his colleagues for passing a bill adding women to the conscription registry. (As if 15m weren’t enough; they want 30m.) Four years later, it could happen again, and Donald Trump still hasn’t weighed in on the subject.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    I'm sorry to hear that this happened in your family. I understand what it feels like to be wracked by scandal, for what it's worth. Please accept my condolences.
  100. @Reg Cæsar

    NYC’s problem is not so much small apartments as overcrowded apartments. In some neighborhoods, especially the hard-hit sections of central Queens, it is not at all uncommon to have 12 unrelated people sharing a 3-room apartment.
     
    Lists of wacky laws like to include NYC's prohibition of sleeping in bathtubs. They rarely delve into why the city saw fit to outlaw this.


    Evidently in the tenement days, one slept in the tub when all the other square footage was taken.

    https://www.history.com/.image/c_fit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cfl_progressive%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_620/MTU5Mzk0OTQ3NjIyMTE4Njcz/jacob-riis-tenements-514877022.jpg

    https://www.skyscraper.org/housing-density/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/06/Tenement_Room.png

    Singapore went from being a model of controlling Covid-19 until a couple of weeks ago to fighting desperately to contain an outbreak in its foreign worker dorms, which it overlooked.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/how-singapore-flipped-from-virus-hero-to-cautionary-tale

  101. @Paleo Liberal
    At this point we know so little about this disease that pretty much everything we say is complete nonsense.

    Recent studies show that there are now at least 30 different mutations of COVID 19. Some appear to be much more deadly than others. Look at the per capita death rates in places like San Marino or NYC. These are first wave Spanish Flu level death rates. Something to avoid at all costs. Some places in Cali appear to have Asian Flu level death rates. Horrible, but not worth shutting down our economy for a protracted time.

    We don’t even know if getting the disease confers immunity. Of course, nothing is 100%. My brother got Chicken Pox twice. We don’t know if getting one strain confers immunity for the other strains, the way Cow Pox gave some immunity towards Chicken Pox. We don’t even have a clue how many people are really getting this disease, and how many are dying.

    Of course with our ignorance, many people erroneously believe they have the answers. After all, if the experts aren’t 100% certain, then why not believe what someone said on a tin foil hat web site?

    I tend to err on the side of caution. History is full of places wiped out by disease in an effort to open up trade too soon.

    A necessary note of caution.

  102. @The one
    Singapore: 9,125 positives, 11 deaths

    That’s a somewhat misleading statistic. Singapore had only about 1,000 cases until ten days ago, and had a strategy of hospitalizing everyone who tested positive, which kept the death rate down. Then they found that the disease was rife among their migrant workers, who live in massive dorms, and added 9,000 to the total in the last few days. The workers are mostly physically fit young men in their 20s and 30s, so the mortality numbers may still remain low. On the other hand, they’re not going to get the intensive in-hospital medical care the locals have been getting. For one thing, there are not enough beds for all of them.

    • Replies: @The one
    Let's see what happens to the deaths. I'm very happy to bet the death rate will still be WAY below 1% in a month's time.
  103. @Reg Cæsar

    You mention this a lot. Personally, I think you’re a bit too interested in this topic.
     
    A cousin of my wife inadvertently married one of these women. They were barely settled in their new home when she was hauled off. She's in the state pen now, listed under her married name. As if that family hadn't enough to sully it.

    It's this blurring of the sexes that I object to. Ted Cruz lambasted his colleagues for passing a bill adding women to the conscription registry. (As if 15m weren't enough; they want 30m.) Four years later, it could happen again, and Donald Trump still hasn't weighed in on the subject.

    I’m sorry to hear that this happened in your family. I understand what it feels like to be wracked by scandal, for what it’s worth. Please accept my condolences.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    A short-lived hasty marriage was the least of their problems. His brother later committed suicide on a major holiday, after which he stopped taking his medications, which he never was consistent about anyway, and was dead himself within a month. One of them (or another brother) angered their mother by violating her DNR order (i.e., saving her life), but mercifully she didn't live to see this.

    He left four children by previous relationships, but three are grown. The GoFundMe page only mentioned the youngest.

    Whenever I'm distressed at my own family, I look at the in-laws, step-, half-, and the rest.
  104. @The one
    Singapore: 9,125 positives, 11 deaths

    Larger samples:

    Malaysia: 5,532 cases, 93 deaths. 3 deaths per million population
    Indonesia: 7,418 cases. 635 deaths, 2 per MM
    Philippines: 6,710 cases, 446 deaths, 4 per MM

  105. @PiltdownMan
    That's a somewhat misleading statistic. Singapore had only about 1,000 cases until ten days ago, and had a strategy of hospitalizing everyone who tested positive, which kept the death rate down. Then they found that the disease was rife among their migrant workers, who live in massive dorms, and added 9,000 to the total in the last few days. The workers are mostly physically fit young men in their 20s and 30s, so the mortality numbers may still remain low. On the other hand, they're not going to get the intensive in-hospital medical care the locals have been getting. For one thing, there are not enough beds for all of them.

    https://i.imgur.com/DYF96CI.jpg

    Let’s see what happens to the deaths. I’m very happy to bet the death rate will still be WAY below 1% in a month’s time.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    We'd be betting on the same side. That's what I was implying by pointing out that the recent surge in cases is among a healthy and quite young segment of the population, albeit male and not female. As long as the migrant worker cases get the same care as those that came before them, that number is going to be remarkably low, as it has been, until now.
  106. @Jack D
    No one knows when herd immunity kicks in for Coronavirus. It varies with the degree of infectiousness (the R0) of each disease. For Covid, R0 is estimated to be between 1.4–3 which corresponds to a herd immunity % of 29–74%. Where did you get 90% from? It's not magical thinking at all. These numbers are the best guess at the moment and none of them are as high as 90%. For some reason with this disease, people use the absence of information to assume the absolute worst. The absolute worst is (by definition) not impossible but nor is it likely either.

    Measles needs about 90% for herd immunity. Because it is roughly the worst case for that it is the example which is used to bludgeon the anti-vaxxers with so the number gets a fair amount of press.

  107. @Jack D
    I haven't seen this documentary but I really doubt that it says that only white people need to stop reproducing. Leftists are stupid and innumerate but not THAT stupid and innumerate. White people are around 11.5% of the world's population and shrinking so even if white people were to become extinct it would hardly change anything. Anyone, even the most ardent doctrinaire Leftist, who is concerned about population growth understands that it can't be addressed solely among white people.

    I recently showed these to a friend with a Ph.D. in public policy from a top school, and many years experience in her field, global governance, but she had not encountered a population pyramid diagram before, nor was she able to appreciate what one implied. There’s a lot of innumeracy out there.

    • Replies: @res

    I recently showed these to a friend with a Ph.D. in public policy from a top school, and many years experience in her field, global governance, but she had not encountered a population pyramid diagram before, nor was she able to appreciate what one implied. There’s a lot of innumeracy out there.
     
    That is incredibly depressing. Any idea whether she truly did not understand or was pretending not to so she could avoid talking about the implications of those diagrams?
  108. @Warner
    Ultimate Trump Derangement Syndrome is how I perceive it. The TDS that seized up three whole world for some number of months.

    Actually, it’s believing that China and Western Europe shut down because of Trump that is utterly deranged.

  109. @The one
    Let's see what happens to the deaths. I'm very happy to bet the death rate will still be WAY below 1% in a month's time.

    We’d be betting on the same side. That’s what I was implying by pointing out that the recent surge in cases is among a healthy and quite young segment of the population, albeit male and not female. As long as the migrant worker cases get the same care as those that came before them, that number is going to be remarkably low, as it has been, until now.

  110. @PiltdownMan
    I recently showed these to a friend with a Ph.D. in public policy from a top school, and many years experience in her field, global governance, but she had not encountered a population pyramid diagram before, nor was she able to appreciate what one implied. There's a lot of innumeracy out there.

    https://i.imgur.com/1rBMsXh.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/yAVzDC4.jpg

    I recently showed these to a friend with a Ph.D. in public policy from a top school, and many years experience in her field, global governance, but she had not encountered a population pyramid diagram before, nor was she able to appreciate what one implied. There’s a lot of innumeracy out there.

    That is incredibly depressing. Any idea whether she truly did not understand or was pretending not to so she could avoid talking about the implications of those diagrams?

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    I've known her a long while, and I don't think she was ducking the implications.

    She, like many people who are highly credentialed from our system of education, has numerical skills that stop at basic arithmetic. She has no skills or ability to extrapolate—or have an intuition for the simplest implications—when faced with a set of numerical facts.

    Had I troubled myself to explain for a couple of minutes, she would have gotten it.

    But, as you say, had I gotten her to that point, she would likely—again, like many of our elites—have shied away from any framing of the problem as a future social or political problem of an increase solely of low-skill or underdeveloped African populations or of strife and conflict.

    She would likely have framed, it as a vague problem of "humanity" versus the "environment" and "Planet Earth."
  111. @Intelligent Dasein
    I'm sorry to hear that this happened in your family. I understand what it feels like to be wracked by scandal, for what it's worth. Please accept my condolences.

    A short-lived hasty marriage was the least of their problems. His brother later committed suicide on a major holiday, after which he stopped taking his medications, which he never was consistent about anyway, and was dead himself within a month. One of them (or another brother) angered their mother by violating her DNR order (i.e., saving her life), but mercifully she didn’t live to see this.

    He left four children by previous relationships, but three are grown. The GoFundMe page only mentioned the youngest.

    Whenever I’m distressed at my own family, I look at the in-laws, step-, half-, and the rest.

  112. @Jack D
    First of all, we don't really know how many have really been infected, but probably a lot more than the known # of cases. 2nd, it's probably going to take another wave (or 2 or 3 if there's no vaccine) before we get to herd immunity. By then (next winter, after the election) the mass hysteria will be over and no one will dream of ever shutting the whole economy down again - it will be just accepted as another type of seasonal flu that carries off the elderly every winter. We've had bad flu years forever and no one ever thought of locking up the entire population and ending all commerce as the solution before and no one ever will again. This, like Salem Witch Fever, is unique to this particular moment in history.

    First of all, we don’t really know how many have really been infected, but probably a lot more than the known # of cases.

    Yes, it’s become more and more evident that my wife and daughter and I must have been infected and symptomatic while my son was asymptomatic.

  113. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    It's been amazing watching the media narratives shift in real time.

    They've never addressed the arbitrary nature of the American shut down; why small and medium local businesses get screwed even as Wal-Mart stays afloat, oil companies are allowed to continue building pipelines, and big restaurant chains get big loans.

    They've just browbeaten the masses into accepting this fake lockdown #1, as if it were applied equally and sensibly, and then #2, as if it were necessary, let alone well-thought out. Well, #1 alone proves not only that there are serious problems with the narrative for #2, but that the little people of this country have basically no institutional power when it counts. But that shouldn't surprise anyone with a brain and reasonable powers of observation.

    They - especially Democrat governors - started by telling us they had to flatten the curve. In Pennsylvania, this has been sufficiently accomplished to the point that one of the big health companies, UPMC, has unilaterally announced it will reopen elective surgeries. http://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/upmc-says-coronavirus-surge-simply-hasnt-happened-will-resume-elective-surgeries.html

    Now the "experts" are telling us we have to continue giving up our "old normal" because we have to have more testing availability. So much for flattening the curve. Well, this isn't like a Prussian, Clausewitzian war, with pre-set objectives that must be met. This is a statist, globalist "war" with "front lines" that are justified by constantly changing metrics - anything to keep small and medium businesses from getting a break.

    Governor Murphy of New Jersey is openly saying people can't expect to recover their "old normal." Democrat governors in purple states - like PA and Michigan - are less honest.

    Governors and the media are now also starting to tell us that there's no point in reopening non-Globohomo businesses any time soon because we're all supposedly "too scared" to resume normal life.

    That's the level of delusion and deceit among the folks justifying this partial lockdown: they don't want us to be afraid of going to Wal-Mart, Home Depot, or any number of multinational conglomerate businesses, but they do want us to be afraid of our local barber shop.

    Governors and the media are now also starting to tell us that there’s no point in reopening non-Globohomo businesses any time soon because we’re all supposedly “too scared” to resume normal life.

    I’m really not hearing any of this stuff.

    • Replies: @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan
    I don't know what to tell you other than you have to read more of the news.
  114. @Alexander Turok
    I'd like to see the numbers behind that calculation. You claim that:

    If the coronavirus crisis has already cost you as much as a net of three days of lost time, you are already on the losing side
     
    Suppose you have 35 years ahead of you. Say you have a 50% chance of ever being infected and a .2% chance of death. That's 13 days right there as 365*35*.5*.002=13. But you also have to consider the cost of the days in which you are sickened. And this calculation is based on the chance of death for a young and healthy person.

    You also claim that:

    The insane response leading to unnecessary mass unemployment, and other disruption, will cause lost time for all (and already far exceeding the three-days as calculated above), but will also cause an inevitable rise in prime-age suicides, other early deaths of despair, and worse healthcare outcomes for years as people become too poor or insecure to afford medical care.
     
    This contradicts historical data on reccessions:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0

    This contradicts historical data on reccessions:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0

    That article says nothing about fertility that I see, but about death rates of the living.

    Here you can see the ‘hit’ fertility took during/after the recession that hit in 2008:

    Total Fertility Rates by Race in the USA, 1980-2013

    If a drop of just 0.2 TFR points occurs, as observed with the last recession for US White women (and greater in magnitude for groups that were in the 2000s in a “Bubble Economy fertility-bubble,” notably US Hispanics), how many lost people does that translate to over, say, five years?

    It could mean that if 10 million births are supposed to occur to White US women (2m/year/5 years), there would only be 8.5 million to 9 million actually born. That’s a net loss of up to 1.5 million people, immediately swamping the sacred CoronaDeaths the media loves so much.

    • Replies: @Hail

    a net loss of up to 1.5 million [babies not born], immediately swamping the sacred CoronaDeaths the media loves so much.
     
    And, needless to say, crude body-counting obscures a lot of the effect.

    A simple illustrative calculation:

    Let's be generous to the bloodthirsty media and assume (for simple calculation's sake) they get 200,000 corona-bodies which are fairly-counted excess deaths that they can mourn/celebrate over. All data from everywhere is that these 200,000 would be overwhelmingly of advanced age and and/or in poor condition. The typical death is well over age 80, for example.

    Applying the conceptual layer of analysis of "aggregate expected life-years":

    200,000 fairly-counted corona deaths x 5 years = 1,000,000 agg.-expected-life-years

    1,500,000 babies not born x 85 years (life-span) = 127,500,000 agg.-exp.-life-years.

    After just this one single calculation, not even yet taking into account the huge hit in lost life-years and life-year-equivalents to us the living (some of which is quantifiable, such as marginal suicides; some less immediately quantifiable; some of the effect will take years, or decades, to show up, but at which we can make best-guesses), we already see the Corona Response is easily hundreds of times worse than the Coronavirus.

    As the commenter vhrm wrote earlier today:


    i still can’t get my head around what’s happened here. Absolutely insane.
     
    (EDIT: By the way, I realize the proposed 1,500,000 babies-not-born is for whites only; add in the others and scale up the magnitude of this CoronaMadness accordingly.)
  115. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail

    This contradicts historical data on reccessions:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0
     
    That article says nothing about fertility that I see, but about death rates of the living.

    Here you can see the 'hit' fertility took during/after the recession that hit in 2008:

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/fertility19802013_b.png

    Total Fertility Rates by Race in the USA, 1980-2013

    If a drop of just 0.2 TFR points occurs, as observed with the last recession for US White women (and greater in magnitude for groups that were in the 2000s in a "Bubble Economy fertility-bubble," notably US Hispanics), how many lost people does that translate to over, say, five years?

    It could mean that if 10 million births are supposed to occur to White US women (2m/year/5 years), there would only be 8.5 million to 9 million actually born. That's a net loss of up to 1.5 million people, immediately swamping the sacred CoronaDeaths the media loves so much.

    a net loss of up to 1.5 million [babies not born], immediately swamping the sacred CoronaDeaths the media loves so much.

    And, needless to say, crude body-counting obscures a lot of the effect.

    A simple illustrative calculation:

    Let’s be generous to the bloodthirsty media and assume (for simple calculation’s sake) they get 200,000 corona-bodies which are fairly-counted excess deaths that they can mourn/celebrate over. All data from everywhere is that these 200,000 would be overwhelmingly of advanced age and and/or in poor condition. The typical death is well over age 80, for example.

    Applying the conceptual layer of analysis of “aggregate expected life-years”:

    200,000 fairly-counted corona deaths x 5 years = 1,000,000 agg.-expected-life-years

    1,500,000 babies not born x 85 years (life-span) = 127,500,000 agg.-exp.-life-years.

    After just this one single calculation, not even yet taking into account the huge hit in lost life-years and life-year-equivalents to us the living (some of which is quantifiable, such as marginal suicides; some less immediately quantifiable; some of the effect will take years, or decades, to show up, but at which we can make best-guesses), we already see the Corona Response is easily hundreds of times worse than the Coronavirus.

    As the commenter vhrm wrote earlier today:

    i still can’t get my head around what’s happened here. Absolutely insane.

    (EDIT: By the way, I realize the proposed 1,500,000 babies-not-born is for whites only; add in the others and scale up the magnitude of this CoronaMadness accordingly.)

  116. @res

    I recently showed these to a friend with a Ph.D. in public policy from a top school, and many years experience in her field, global governance, but she had not encountered a population pyramid diagram before, nor was she able to appreciate what one implied. There’s a lot of innumeracy out there.
     
    That is incredibly depressing. Any idea whether she truly did not understand or was pretending not to so she could avoid talking about the implications of those diagrams?

    I’ve known her a long while, and I don’t think she was ducking the implications.

    She, like many people who are highly credentialed from our system of education, has numerical skills that stop at basic arithmetic. She has no skills or ability to extrapolate—or have an intuition for the simplest implications—when faced with a set of numerical facts.

    Had I troubled myself to explain for a couple of minutes, she would have gotten it.

    But, as you say, had I gotten her to that point, she would likely—again, like many of our elites—have shied away from any framing of the problem as a future social or political problem of an increase solely of low-skill or underdeveloped African populations or of strife and conflict.

    She would likely have framed, it as a vague problem of “humanity” versus the “environment” and “Planet Earth.”

    • Thanks: res
  117. @ben tillman

    Governors and the media are now also starting to tell us that there’s no point in reopening non-Globohomo businesses any time soon because we’re all supposedly “too scared” to resume normal life.
     
    I'm really not hearing any of this stuff.

    I don’t know what to tell you other than you have to read more of the news.

  118. Or perhaps I don’t.

  119. Christ you’re a dickhead at times, steve. Taleb does makes fair points about your claims.

  120. @Steve Sailer
    I got "Tom Hanks Disease" from a Norm MacDonald tweet.

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS
PastClassics
The unspoken statistical reality of urban crime over the last quarter century.
Which superpower is more threatened by its “extractive elites”?
How a Young Syndicate Lawyer from Chicago Earned a Fortune Looting the Property of the Japanese-Americans, then Lived...
Becker update V1.3.2