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How Much Actual Evidence Is There That 1/3rd of Stockholm Has Been Infected?
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I keep reading authoritative sounding references to how 1/3rd of the residents of Stockholm is or was or would be infected already. For example, in the Washington Post today:

Tegnell pointed to “the slow decline of cases in Stockholm,” the country’s capital, which he now attributes “to a level of immunity in the population.” Possibly a third of Stockholm’s residents may have already contracted the virus, according to Sweden’s public health agency — marking a process toward “herd immunity” that may make the country more resilient should a second wave strike.

But when I follow the link it just goes to an April 21st Reuters article that asserts:

Modelling using data from random testing and cases reported to hospitals showed that around one-third of Stockholm’s population will have contracted the coronavirus by May 1.

I haven’t looked hugely hard, but I’ve never been able to find anything more detailed than that.

If the Swedes have figured out how to have a higher proportion of their metropolis infected than in New York City and without New York City level deaths, they really ought to share their secret.

Or maybe three weeks ago they were engaging in wishful thinking about how far along they were? I don’t know, but it seems important to find out.

Does anybody have any real data on Stockholm?

 
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  1. LondonBob says:

    Deaths are rapidly declining so herd immunity looks like being a low number either way.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    , @AnotherDad
  2. The Secret? STOCKHOLM AIN’T NEW YORK CITY.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @BenKenobi
    , @FPD72
  3. Anon[368] • Disclaimer says:

    286K Covid-19 deaths to date, which is basically just replacing pneumonia and flu deaths that would have happened anyway in the old and fragile population.

    1.5 million people die every year from tuberculosis. Covid hasn’t even hit one fifth of that, and yet we needed to shut down the whole world for it. The number of deaths from hunger from the totally avoidable economic fallout is expected to dwarf the number of deaths from the actual disease. What an absolute sham this has been.

  4. Anonymous[277] • Disclaimer says:

    “Stockholm Syndrome”

  5. Kaz says:

    Well Swedes are healthier than Americans.

    That aside if they wisened up and tightened up protocols around their nursing homes after the initial wave of deaths this could be true.

  6. @Anon

    1.5 million people die every year from tuberculosis

    Do they die in Italy, Spain, France, UK, and USA?

    Back when TB was bad in the West, it was a huge deal. As I often like to repeat, the settlement of Southern California is only expicable when you take into account TB.

  7. ALS says:

    The results from an antibody study were published on April 22: https://www.rt.com/news/486471-sweden-contracted-coronavirus-antibody-study/

    Apparently this study is not capable of producing false positives – however, small sample size may be an issue. The antibody test showed that the infection rate is ~11% in Sweden. Applying the 11% infection rate to Sweden’s 10,322,000 population shows approximately 1,135,420 people have been infected. As 50% of Sweden’s deaths have been in Stockholm, it may be reasonable to assume that 50% of the infections have been in Stockholm as well – (1,135,420/2 = 567,710). Stockholm’s population is around 1,032,200, so this would result in a 55.9% infection rate in Stockholm – well above the 1/3 projection.

    • Replies: @Ola
  8. Bill H says:

    Ah, the ubiquitous “modelling using data from…” which has been proved so accurate so many times. The one that promised coastal cites would be inundated due to global warming by 2020, for instance, or the one that told us 2.2 million would die from Coronavirus in the US by May 1st.

  9. qwop says:

    The results of antibody testing will be revealed next week, the Swedish Health Authorities have said.

    However, antibody prevalence is not a perfect indicator of herd immunity: you have to factor in also the varying susceptibility to the disease as a baseline. This means that the “effective population” should be scaled by excluding children and adolescents which (1) don’t acquire the infection easily and (2) don’t show much symptoms and thus (3) presumably aren’t an important vector in the disease transmission.

    Last, antibodies take weeks to develop. Blood tests on May 18 can provide data on infection levels up until May 1, not later. We’re not there yet.

    Lastly, “herd immunity” is not on/off. It’s a sliding scale, and you always have some of it. There are an infinite number of points along a line, that sort of thing. But the death rate, or — more pronounced still — the hospitalization rate is declining in Stockholm (not only new admissions, but actual number of people hospitalized for COVID-19). Virtually nothing has changed since March 13 policy-wise. How to explain? Herd immunity seems the best best.

    Edit: 2,5% active infection week 14 and 2,3% active infection week 17, in Stockholm County, according to the health authorities.

  10. Maciano says:

    Swedes engaging in wishful thinking, contrary to all other evidence.

    This never happens.

    They must be right.

    • Disagree: Hail
  11. Does anybody have any real data on Stockholm?

    So far as I know, these are still only estimates based on the models of the Public Health Agency (26% infected in Greater Stockholm by May 1) and professor Tom Britton (some 33% infected in Greater Stockholm by April 19). The model of the Public Health Agency is described in a report on their homepage. I have only skimmed it, but on page 15, for instance, we have this:

    Based on the reported cases in the Stockholm region until 10 April 2020, we studied three scenarios. The results from the three scenarios were all consistent with the assumption of a covid-19 prevalence of approximately 2.5% between 27 March and 3 April, i.e. the prevalence estimated by the Stockholm study. Common to the three scenarios was that the unreported cases must account for 98.7% of the total number of cases to result in the observed prevalence. The scenarios differed regarding the infectiousness of unreported cases in relation to reported cases (𝒒𝒖)

    You might also be interested in a paper Britton published on May 6. It’s not peer-reviewed yet but can be found here:

    The Disease-Induced Herd Immunity Level for Covid-19 Is Substantially Lower Than the Classical Herd Immunity Level

    Most countries are suffering severely from the ongoing covid-19 pandemic despite various levels of preventive measures. A common question is if and when a country or region will reach herd immunity h. The classical herd immunity level hC is defined as hC=1−1/R0, where R0 is the basic reproduction number, for covid-19 estimated to lie somewhere in the range 2.2-3.5 depending on country and region. It is shown here that the disease-induced herd immunity level hD, after an outbreak has taken place in a country/region with a set of preventive measures put in place, is actually substantially smaller than hC. As an illustration we show that if R0=2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity studies, and also categorizing individuals into three categories: low active, average active and high active, and where preventive measures affect all mixing rates proportionally, then the disease-induced herd immunity level is hD=43% rather than hC=1−1/2.5=60%. Consequently, a lower fraction infected is required for herd immunity to appear. The underlying reason is that when immunity is induced by disease spreading, the proportion infected in groups with high contact rates is greater than that in groups with low contact rates. Consequently, disease-induced immunity is stronger than when immunity is uniformly distributed in the community as in the classical herd immunity level.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @res
  12. @qwop

    Thanks.

    How long are active infections? 1.5 weeks? 2.0 weeks? So maybe a steady 2.5% infected in any one week translates to 1.5% getting infected per week. If Stockholm is 9 weeks into this, then 9 times 1.5% = 13.5%.

    • Replies: @qwop
  13. Peter Frost says: • Website

    It’s an estimate that Sweden’s ambassador to the United States made in an interview on April 26:

    Sweden’s ambassador to the United States has said the capital of the Nordic country could reach herd immunity by May – a result of a controversial response to the coronavirus pandemic involving few public restrictions.

    “About 30 percent of people in Stockholm have reached a level of immunity,” Karin Ulrika Olofsdotter told National Public Radio (NPR).

    To date, close to three million people have been infected by the new coronavirus, which has caused more than 206,000 deaths worldwide.
    “We could reach herd immunity in the capital as early as next month,” Olofsdotter said in the interview published on Saturday.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/sweden-ambassador-stockholm-reach-herd-immunity-200427072044548.html

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Lot
  14. @Bill H

    It’s impossible that those 2.2 million will die from the Kung Flu, Bill. They live mostly on the coasts and have already drowned from sea level rise due to Global Climate Disruptions(TM). It’s the clash of the Mathematical Models: Greta v Corona in the final bracket.

    • Replies: @Redman
  15. peterike says:

    BTW, Deep State con man Fauci is addressing the Senate now. I’m not watching, but here’s two predictions.

    1. He hysterically warns against opening up the economy because “every life counts” and blah blah blah. This will validate — as if that were needed — that he’s just another part of the Trump Removal, Act III.

    2. He takes a measured approach and says certain parts of the country can and should be reopening, that things are under control. Trump won him over.

    And a non-prediction:

    3. He says “sorry we f’d up the whole thing and the shut down was a gigantic mistake. Back to work!”

    • Replies: @dcthrowback
  16. @Swedish Family

    I can believe that herd immunity is lower for Tom Hanks Disease after all the handful of Tom Hanks are either infected or holed up in their 18 room mansions.

    On the other hand, here in L.A., the people in Beverly Crest are barely getting it lately, while the poor Mexicans living 7 in a 5 room house in Van Nuys are getting it in droves.

  17. Stirner says:

    Steve, it is possible to calculate an inferred infection rate from the number of deaths. All you need is age bracketed demographic data.

    You also need the Infection Fatality Ratio for each age group. This study is relatively recent, and breaks it down by 5 year age cohorts on table on page 5. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930243-7

    Multiply each age cohort by the IFR, and you get a forecast of how many people would die if 100 percent of people were infected. The final step is to divide the actual number of deaths by the calculated number of maximum deaths – that gives you a percentage that is a proxy measure for the actual rate of infection.

    It works surprisingly well, with the main caveat being that it takes around 17 days to go from infection to the average death, so the infection rate reflects the actual rate 2 to 3 weeks ago.

  18. qwop says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Yes, that seems a reasonable estimate. Assuming 20% of the population are children or adolescents, we can roughly estimate that 30% of the population is not likely to catch the infection moving onward. Assuming 60% for herd immunity, Stockholm is halfway there, which coincides nicely with the peak in deaths per day at the same time, as is expected if the epicurve is symmetric.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Reg Cæsar
  19. @Peter Frost

    The duty of an ambassador is to lie for your country.

  20. BenKenobi says:
    @Redneck farmer

    Whose dirt is more magic?

    • Replies: @Currier House
  21. Anon[204] • Disclaimer says:

    Well we do have those videos of a couple of Chinese intenionally wiping elevator buttons and park benches in New York after sneezing a couple of months back. Ever think some group may have have been accelerating the spread in NYC on purpose? Both Chinese industry (Trump wants to bring back manufacturing) and our very own warm and cuddly Deep State hate Trump, so there is that ‘pozzibility’.

    Swedes probably have a lot more self control when social distancing than New Yorkers also, plus they have seen New York’s struggle in the news and got a jump on taking this very seriously.

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    , @Alden
  22. Anonymous[270] • Disclaimer says:

    Does anybody have any real data on Stockholm?

    Not really. It’s all wishful thinking at this point.

  23. @Stirner

    That’s pretty depressing: 1.4% in those under age 60 in the Wuhan region and 6.4% in the oldsters.

    But I would hope that they were missing a bunch of mild infections and that medicine has progressed since then in not killing off quite as many patients.

    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
  24. Ola says: • Website
    @ALS

    The researchers withdrew that report the day after it was published.

    http://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/nya-antikroppstestet-baserat-pa-osakert-underlag

    • Thanks: res
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  25. Anonymous[460] • Disclaimer says:

    Damn Trump’s briefing yesterday sucked. He did the same speech from 3 weeks ago. Droning on about ventilators?!

    This guy should be excoriating all the movers of the goalposts. The point of the shutdowns was to avoid ICU meltdowns.

    Trump coulda woulda shoulda be roasting these tyrant governors. Weeks ago he tweeted LIBERATE etc now not so much … also he hasn’t mentioned HCQ lately. WTF. He sounds like he’s stopped fighting.

    Gavin Newsom demanding 1 trillion for his interstate compact’s self destruction is the easiest political target ever right now. Those five governors should all be destroyed over this fiasco. Trump should be burning Gavin at the stake. But instead watch jackass Trump and up bailing them out. What a nightmare.

    SICK Newsom keeps pretending his data is same as NY which is a total lie. He should be crucified.

    Fool Trump is really flailing here. His Fauci/Birx romance will be judged harshly. He has no competent advisors left.

    CALL BULLSH!T ON THIS HOAX TRUMP

    • Agree: Je Suis Omar Mateen
    • Troll: Manfred Arcane
    • Replies: @Known Fact
    , @HA
    , @Redman
  26. @Anon

    So why was overall mortality in the UK running at 2x the seasonal average in early April?

    This ridiculous nonsense is still being trotted out – eg by Elon Musk on the Rogan podcast this week.

    • Replies: @peterike
    , @moshe
    , @Hypnotoad666
  27. @qwop

    Which was IHME’s guess: the curve would fall as fast as it rose. So far that hasn’t proven to be true all that often, although IHME was pretty decent about guessing peak stress on hospitals wouldn’t be horrible outside of the New York area.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
    , @leterip
  28. Does anybody have any real data on Stockholm?

    . . .isn’t the Most Fundamental Question. It’s

    “Does anybody have REAL data on ANYTHING related to Cornona Chan?”

    Of course, so many things are an estimate based on sample size, and, of course, “published” figures are based upon the vagaries of pressurized real time reporting, and, of course, even ostensibly “neutral” observers have their particular data axe to grind — not to mention our Han pals who find new and better ways of lying.

    But I hypothesize there is one thing we can be sure of, and it’s this:

    When all of this blows over, should reality be revealed (a big IF), the sloppiness of the record keeping and documentation will be appalling.

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Redman
  29. @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    It’s May 12. We are getting better data than on April 12 or March 12, much less February 12. We didn’t have any data to speak of until the end of February when the first Wuhan data was published.

  30. @Stirner

    It works surprisingly well, with the main caveat being that it takes around 17 days to go from infection to the average death, so the infection rate reflects the actual rate 2 to 3 weeks ago.

    A far greater weakness is that their model assumes uniform spread rates (i.e. that an 85-year-old is as likely to catch the virus as a 35-year-old). This assumption breaks down the moment the elderly get more cautious than the young.

    We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment.

  31. peterike says:
    @jimmyriddle

    So why was overall mortality in the UK running at 2x the seasonal average in early April?

    Your chart is only comparing to a five year average, which is meaningless historically. Charts are notorious for visual subterfuge. Pick your start and end points carefully and you can make a chart go any direction you like. Pick your scale and you can make a tiny bump look like an alpine peak.

    • Replies: @Gross Terry
    , @varsicule
  32. Polynikes says:
    @LondonBob

    An interesting question: does every flu-like virus have to reach herd immunity, or can it just “burn out” naturally due to other factors like seasonality?

    From early on statisticians, or people interested in these stats, like Prof. Michael Levitt of Stanford have plotted out the case/deaths numbers and shown a pretty consistent trend in all countries. There has been a quick rise with a quick burnout. This is pretty uniform despite what measures a country used. He’s made a few bad predictions along the way–especially early–but his graphs have been pretty good.

    Since then a tech and stats guy on Twitter named Ethical Skeptic has provided similar data (I posted some graphs in another post) and his predictions have been pretty good. All across the US infection rates are dropping generally despite the state’s response or how bad they’ve been hit so far.

    So can a virus like this kind of “burn out” or is that just an observed trend that is basically the same thing as herd immunity which has been reached at a much lower number than everyone assumed?

  33. DeBlasio and the NY media meanwhile are ratcheting up concern over the allegedly COVID-related “mystery illness” now reportedly hitting a few dozen children. I initially expected that the major COVID panic would center around schoolkids and was very wrong, as the main focus has been the frail elderly — but now here it comes with the kids, as a potential hammer to keep schools locked down (along with balky teachers’ unions)

    • Replies: @moshe
    , @Polynikes
  34. dearieme says:
    @Steve Sailer

    The better translation is The duty of an ambassador is to lie abroad for his country.

    It’s better because it’s a wry joke based on a play on words rather than being merely a dull assertion.

    • Replies: @Semperluctor
  35. @Anonymous

    That angry Chinese-American female reporter yesterday practically jumped to life right off the NYT op-ed pages Steve is always wrily spotlighting

  36. Travis says:

    The Swedes are the biggest users of Snus, thus have the lowest smoking rate in Europe. The nicotine in Snus may be getting enough nicotine in their bodies to protect against coronavirus hospitalizations. 20% of Swedish men use Snus. Evidence is becoming stronger, and the positive effects of nicotine can not be hidden any further.
    https://www.insidesources.com/nicotine-could-prevent-the-spread-of-covid-19-studies-suggest/

    Swedish Snus is made from dried tobacco. The manufacturing involves a heat treatment process instead of the more commonly used fermentation. As a result of these measures snus contains lower levels of nitrosamines, and other controversial compounds than similar smokeless tobacco products. No statistically significant association between oral cancer and Snus use was observed in two epidemiological case-control studies. There is no association between any type of cardiac or gastric cancer and snus use. https://www.who.int/tobacco/framework/public_hearings/swedish_match_ab.pdf

    • Thanks: Old Prude
  37. moshe says:
    @jimmyriddle

    All this stuff was predictably obvious.

    https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/nyc-deaths-non-covid-causes-172625959.html

    Read it.

    And know that it definitely underestimates the truth.

    For the love of God, the weight gain alone among the young population will grant the devil more healthy years for his kingdom of the afterlife than bubbleboying all of humanity took from him in aged and decrepit years.

    • Agree: Redman
    • Replies: @jimmyriddle
  38. HA says:
    @Anonymous

    “The point of the shutdowns was to avoid ICU meltdowns.”

    No, it is not. In fact, avoiding ICU meltdowns is actually pretty easy, at least for Sweden or for any other government with a socialized or quasi-socialized medical system. All you have to do is to deny hospital treatment to anyone who is very sick, and send them back to die in the nursing homes or wherever.

    Which, according to one local doctor, is exactly what Sweden did.

    In fact, if you’re only worried about ICU meltdowns, you can just choose to shut the hospitals down completely. Voilà! No ICU meltdowns or medical system overload whatsoever. I’m a genius — where’s my Nobel prize in medicine, Stockholm?

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  39. Anonymous[460] • Disclaimer says:

    Unreal: Today psycho Trump pushes negative interest rates as a “gift”…

    NIR will accelerate massive wealth transfer from the middle class. It is outright banker confiscation of the citizens savings.

    Meanwhile another year of getting nothing for 100 billion in Afghanistan.

    Trump is emerging as the POTUS from hell.

  40. moshe says:
    @Known Fact

    THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!!

  41. Lot says:
    @Peter Frost

    “ Karin Ulrika Olofsdotter”

    Is it a new feminist trend in Sweden to use Icelandic style surnames?

    • Replies: @qwop
  42. Hey Steve, I have a bit of a moral dilemma and I’m wondering if you have any insight you could share.

    My friend is the pastor of a church in an African nation. For years he’s dealt with the issue that occasionally a warlord or two will wander into his church service. So far he’s just been ignoring them and hoping they leave. But recently the warlord contingent has been about twenty percent of his congregation. They come, they listen to the sermons, they put money in the collection plate. He’s said, “I don’t agree with the grievances of the warlords.” He’s said that multiple times. Is there a moral obligation on him to go further? To call out the warlords in his congregation by name, and say “this behavior is not acceptable. You, Mr. Ebalababwa, are deeply immoral in doing what you’re doing.”

    Because we have a situation in which Elon Musk is looking like he’s going to get away with just breaking the law. They might fine his shareholders, but he won’t go to jail and he won’t lose his job. And that’s going to inspire more people to go out and break the law. If you’re in a situation where you could conceivably have influence over some of these people, is there a moral obligation on you to speak out?

  43. res says:
    @Swedish Family

    Thanks. Some good information overall. I find your final paper link to be quite interesting. One thing which caught my eye (look at Figure 1 to see this visually).

    It is seen that preventive measures reduce the size and delay the time of the peak. On March 15 preventive measures (at four different levels for α) are put in place and it is seen that the growth rate is reduced except for the black curve which has no preventive 5measures (α = 1). Sanctions are lifted on June 30 putting transmission rates back to their original levels, but only in the curve with highest sanctions is there a clear second outbreak wave, since the remaining curves have reached (close to) herd immunity. The yellow curve finishes below 50% getting infected. The reason it has more than the 43% infected shown in Table 1 is that preventive measures were not from the very start and were also lifted before the epidemic was over. An interesting observation is that the purple curve ends up with a higher overall fraction infected even though it had more restrictions than those of the yellow. The explanation is that this epidemic was further from completion when sanctions were lifted.

    Notice that the most extreme sanctions resulted in a higher overall infection rate than one level less strict because they did not allow herd immunity to be achieved. This is the scenario I think the US lockdowns may be setting us up for. Figure 2 shows the total infections over time for each approach (i.e. the area under the infection curve in Figure 1).

    They advocate gradual lifting of restrictions.

    There are of course other more efficient exit-strategies than to lift all restrictions simultaneously. In fact, most countries are currently employing a gradual lifting of preventive measures. Such slower lifting of preventive measures will avoid seeing the type of overshoot illustrated by the purple curve in Figure 2, which results in a greater fraction infected than the yellow curve, even though the latter has milder restrictions. The effect of such gradual lifting of restrictions will result in the final fraction infected reaching close to the disease-induced herd immunity level

    • Thanks: TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @Swedish Family
  44. Lot says:

    Sweden is getting compared to the lower rates in Denmark, but Sweden’s capital’s subway appears to have about 5 times the users than Denmark’s, which is newer and smaller.

    • Replies: @res
    , @Pericles
    , @Redman
  45. Mr. Anon says:
    @Steve Sailer

    The duty of an ambassador is to lie for your country.

    Whereas the Duty of an NIAID director is to lie for Bill Gates.

    By the way, Anthony Fauci has been the director of the NIAID since 1984 (I’m sure the year is coincidental) – 36 years. How many government departments are run by one person for that long? I can well imagine that a lot of turn-over in a job like that is bad, but is having one guy run the outfit for nearly four decades a recipe for success either? He looks like he’s trying to beat J. Edgar Hoover’s record.

  46. @qwop

    Assuming 20% of the population are children or adolescents

    What percentage of that 20% is actually Swedish?.

    Telling stat from the St Ansgar League: 50% of Catholics in all the Nordic countries are of native stock, mostly converts and their children. All the Nordic countries except Sweden, where the figure is 80%. They’re mostly Italians and Poles, I believe, i.e., not very exotic compared with other imported faiths.

  47. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @Polynikes

    I’ve read that particularly virulent diseases like CV could mutate to become either more deadly or less deadly over time. One slight piece of RNA alters, and then it changes morbidity. I think SARS may have mutuated to become less deadly or transmissable in 2003-2004?

    With that said, what does the Lockdown and worldwide reduction in human interaction portend for Influenza, Rotavirus, Noroviruses etc? Will the slowdown in transmission of all viruses keep them from mutating and becoming less infectious next Winter? Will the Influenza of this past Winter not mutate through as many people? Will there be less likelyhood of a new Influenza strain to take hold?

    Or on the other hand, will human isolation dampen and weaken our immune systems, and make them less capable of thwarting any and all viruses if exposed?

    Such an experiment has never really been seen before (ie Lockdown) on such a grand global scale since the Age of Exploration and definitely since the late 20th Century Globalization push.

  48. Polynikes says:
    @Steve Sailer

    although IHME was pretty decent about guessing peak stress on hospitals wouldn’t be horrible outside of the New York area

    Where do you get that from?

    Whereas the Furgeson UK model was the scare tactic on deaths, the IHME was more reasonable. Where the IHME model was way off is on hospital usage. It was routinely off by a factor of 2 or more just a couple days after they would make revisions.

    They don’t have their really bad older models on their website, but here’s their March 30th update. http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/Estimation_update_033020.pdf

    Here’s the highlight: ” An estimated need of 224,321 total beds (33,440 for ICU) and 26,753 ventilators at peak could be devastating for hospitals and health workers nationwide. ”

    [MORE]

    Their backward looking revised estimate (which I think is still way too high based on the state data I have seen) shows that even their march 30th prediction was off by about 400% in hospital beds and 100% in ICU beds. They predicted, on March 30th, that 37 states would run out of regular beds, ICU beds, or both. My state Wisconsin was one of them, and we never even came close. Minnesota was one of them and at about that time the Mayo clinic was making rumblings about having to cut staff. They did not come close, either.

    For April 3rd, Breitbart issued this article saying:

    The results showed that the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model ranged from nine percent in Tennessee to 47 percent in Florida.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/31/model-projects-37-states-do-not-have-hospital-capacity-at-coronavirus-peak/

    For more you can scroll through Alex Berenson’s Twitter where he was giving near daily updates through April. In short, the hospital bed calculations by IHME is probably their biggest bit of fraud. It was routinely off by 100% or more of actual occupancy as little as 2 days after it’s revised release through late March and early April.

    It was that scare coupled with Furgeson’s 2.5million dead “model” that sent the country into panic and lockdown.

    • Agree: LondonBob
  49. Mr. Anon says:
    @HA

    @Anonymous

    “The point of the shutdowns was to avoid ICU meltdowns.”

    No, it is not.

    You are lying. That is exactly the justification that was given for the shutdowns – to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

    • Agree: vhrm, Redman
    • Replies: @HA
  50. Polynikes says:
    @Known Fact

    It’s not just NY, it’s the national media and even international media. It is most likely Kawasaki disease which they are trying to tie in.

    To rebut these scare tactics the UK Kawasaki Disease released the following press release: https://www.societi.org.uk/kawasaki-disease-and-covid-19/

    Fewer cases of Kawasaki Disease than would be normally expected at this time of year are currently being seen – not more.

    Kawasaki Disease is a seasonal inflammatory disorder peaking in the winter and spring, and whilst no infection has ever been proven to be the sole trigger, the scientific community believe that any one of many infections may trigger Kawasaki Disease in susceptible children. For the majority of cases, Kawasaki Disease occurs without ever identifying any infectious cause. We are aware of recent delayed presentations of Kawasaki Disease because of initial incorrect diagnoses of Covid-19, resulting in adverse coronary outcomes due to delayed institution of treatment.

    (emphasis added)

    Summary: this is normal with the exception that the Corona-panic is causing adverse outcomes be delaying normal diagnosis and treatment.

  51. edgar says:

    Researchers found 10 percent of Stockholm residents had antibodies in early April based upon home tests mailed to a sample of 1000 with 446 usable responses. The survey is being repeated again this month. https://www.kth.se/en/aktuellt/nyheter/10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  52. @Polynikes

    Of course, you are doing the usual thing where you say, “ASSUME these huge interventions had zero effect, then these huge interventions had zero effect.”

    • Replies: @Polynikes
  53. @Polynikes

    Thanks. That’s good news.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
  54. @Steve Sailer

    Do I look at the wrong table or it 0.145% for those under 60 and 3.28% for those over 60? For younger cohorts IFR is even less than 0.145%. It seems that for people under the median age in industrialized countrys COVID-19 has a lower IFR than the flu.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @res
  55. Real data seems to be pretty sparse, not only on CV19, but on the 1957/8 (“Asian”) and 1967/8 (“Hong Kong”) flu epidemics so beloved of just-the-flu-bros.

    I tried to find figures for UK deaths in 1957/8. The British Ministry Of Health in 1960 produced a document called “Influenza Epidemic In England And Wales, 1957-58” – it’s quoted in lots of papers, usually with a Google Scholar link. Damned if I can find it.

    Only thing I could find was this

    https://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC2130729&blobtype=pdf

    “Influenza in Britain 1967-68 by D.L.Miller and J.A.Lee”

    “The number of deaths attributed to influenza from December 1967 to March 1968 (inclusive) exceeded those for same period in 1966-7 by 4,444; the excess for pneumonia was 10,595, for bronchitis 6,579 and for all causes 46,408… it is estimated that in the total population of England, Wales and Scotland there was an excess of 1.9 million cases diagnosed as influenza in the period.”

    Average winter excess (over non-winter) deaths these days, with a higher population but better healthcare, are 26,000 or so. Add another 46,000 and you’re talking 72,000 deaths over December to March that you wouldn’t get in April-July or August-November. Let’s say all the 46,000 deaths can be put down to flu – that’s 46,000 deaths from an estimated 1.9 million people ill enough with it to be in bed (there were 1.1 million sick claims for flu in the period, you had to have a ‘doctor’s note’ to be off work).

    UK has about 224,000 people diagnosed with CV19 and 32,000 deaths. Unless there are about 1.5 million people with CV19 symptoms, undiagnosed but sticking it out at home*, CV19 is not just like even a bad flu year.

    *It’s technically possible – if you think you have it you call 111 and talk to a doctor who takes your details. As far as I know, there are no figures being published as to the number of people who have rung up with CV19 symptoms but have not been admitted to hospital.

  56. @Erik Sieven

    No, the Hubei IFR is 1.38% for under 60s, but that seems vastly too high for more sophisticated medicine and greater testing a few months later.

    In England and NYC, the median age of hospitalizations is 60, but whether you survive hospitalization or not is highly dependent upon age. But do you really want to be hospitalized?

    • Replies: @jason y
  57. @Polynikes

    Good stuff, nice find

    Scare tactics, indeed

  58. @Hippopotamusdrome

    No. In novel situations people make decisions that in hindsight prove stupid.

    But theories about intentions are stupid because this thing is so dangerous that nobody would take the risk.

    • Replies: @Currier House
    , @Anon
    , @Redman
  59. @BenKenobi

    Very much to this point, I would like to know if anyone here has any insight or comment as to the UHF (United Hospital Fund) findings, months ago (March 29), that 69-86% of Greenwich Village tested positive for Covid…

    See map:

    https://www.fox5ny.com/news/new-york-citys-poorer-neighborhoods-hit-hardest-by-coronavirus

    Think it’s just a bad map legend?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Technite78
  60. @Steve Sailer

    Yeah but the bad news is that even media outlets that mentioned the Kawasaki group’s response a few days ago are now just ignoring it and going with “Mystery illness! Mystery illness!” Part of the growing media prep for Wave II — What About the Children!

  61. @Steve Sailer

    I, and many others in the #ReopenNY group on Facebook, New York State residents keenly attuned to the personality and tactics of Cuomo in office here, are very, very much convinced that Cuomo caused the spread of Covid in the nursing homes on purpose.

    He suspended every other rule and precedent in the name of fighting Covid, but mysteriously could not allow “discrimination” against Covid patients to prevent them from being admitted or re-admitted to NYC nursing homes. This accounts for 5,000 of the number of NYC Covid deaths.

    There are photos of people hanging signs from NYS overpasses saying “Cuomo Killed My Mother.”

    These people have been taking a lot of risks already to their careers and reputations, as all the latest info coming to light about Democrat machinations is making clear.

    They never let a crisis go to waste, so they manufacture crises. Always follow the money and ask Cu Bene?

    To ascribe benevolent intentions to career politicians who got there precisely because of power-hunger is the height of rose-tinted Polyannaism.

    • Agree: Ben tillman
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @TomSchmidt
  62. peterike says:

    Infection rate vs. lockdown severity. Infection correlates to lockdown severity for the most part.

    Source and more info:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/12/lockdown-fail-in-one-easy-graph/

    • Replies: @HA
    , @res
  63. qwop says:
    @Lot

    No. This is the original way practiced in all of Scandinavia until the late 19th century.

    Today, it signals that the parents were (1) well-educated, (2) didn’t have any non-patronymic surname themselves already and (3) a bit on the nationalistic side (romantic nationalistic — to borrow a term from Swedish literature studies).

    • Replies: @TiS
  64. @Alexander Turok

    By church, am I to assume a Christian denomination rather than one of the other Abrahamic faith traditions? I am not favoring any belief system here, just asking if Christian precepts are in context, here.

    You want the warlords, you want the sinners to be in the pews. Without going into the abstract concepts regarding forgiveness and salvation in Christian doctrine, the whole concept is that the people in question listen to the sermons, hear the Bible readings, sing the hymns.

    No, the preacher does not need to “call them out” individually. Even if they are self righteous hypocrites by being warlords who go to church — is this kind of like Michael Corleone attending the baptism of his nephew during the time his henchman were shooting dead his rival gang members? — the idea is that they are exposed to the Word, it works on their hearts and their conscience, and maybe they will repent from being warlords?

    Now this gets into the weeds of Christian teaching, but the other side of this is if the warlords attend church, hear the preaching and the readings, sing the hymns but continue to act like Michael Coreleone in his slide into corrupt madness, the Lord will have further justification to punish them because they have heard the Word and rejected it. The preacher is just an instrument of the Almighty. If the preacher gets them to reform, it is really the Lord working through the preacher, and if the preacher’s teaching results in a just and deserved punishment meted out to the warlords, that is also the work of our Father in Heaven, and the preacher is merely a conduit for this process.

    On the other hand, if the Speaker of the Assembly of Warlords goes on the radio or TV station, professes how they are a member in good standing of this church, and makes a big deal about how they “pray for” the duly elected leader of your African country, and if that warlord attempts to have the leader of the country removed from office for engaging in anti-corruption measures against a fellow warlord, I think the preacher should really “lay into” that person.

    • Thanks: vhrm
  65. @Currier House

    A friend of mine on the Lower West Side thinks he had it for about 6 weeks.

    • Replies: @moshe
  66. @YetAnotherAnon

    I remember the 1968 Hong Kong Flu. It was in the news a lot at the time when I was 9.

  67. jason y says:
    @Polynikes

    when comparing the effectiveness of policies across countries, it makes more sense to compare the curves for cities within countries than to compare the curves for entire countries. the reason is simple: larger countries with cities spaced farther apart will have longer peaks due to the staggered introduction of the virus into different city populations.

    if you do this, the curves look even more similar, with a few exaggerated peaks in cities where, i’d guess, nosocomial infections went through the roof.

    • Thanks: Polynikes
  68. @Currier House

    To ascribe bad decisionmaking to career politicians is the height of reasonableness.

  69. Stockholm County according to Bing:

    Confirmed cases: 9829
    Deaths: 1698

    From wiki:

    Population: 2,377,081

    Deaths per million in the Swedish capital is 714.

    If New York is way higher than this (it is) there may be multiple explanations, one of which is that maybe all these deaths in New York aren’t actually from the Wuhan corona virus.

    We know that over half of all the deaths were in nursing homes or home care, and for people who go into nursing homes they have a vary high rate of death naturally.

    https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1472-6963-11-86

    A total of 28.8% of residents died within a year, 43.4% within two years and 53.1% of the residents died within 3 years.

    The mortality rate showed that more than 50% died within 3 years, and almost a third of the residents may have needed palliative care within a year of admission. Considering the short survival time from admission, it seems relevant that staff is trained in providing palliative care as much as restorative care.

    First source I found here looking for mortality rates among the elderly. This seems to be based on numbers from China back in March:

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-elderly-older-people-health-risk/

    There’s a direct correlation between mortality and age. So if you’re 60 to 69, the mortality rate is at 3.6%. At 70 to 79, it’s 8%. And if you’re 80 or above, it’s 15%. In some of the data I’ve seen, it’s even higher, at 18%.

    If you are 80 or above, and are admitted to a nursing home, you have at least a 30% chance of dying within the year. In a 4 month period it’s about 10% chance of death. With COVID in the nursing home, it goes up to about 15% in the last 4 months? These numbers aren’t incredibly valid and need checking but it seems about ballpark.

    Keeping in mind everyone at the same age is not at the same health and some live longer than others, a person who was on their way to 92 but gets this corona virus at 72, probably has no symptoms. The person who was all set to die at 72 and gets corona, still does. Maybe loses a month.

    https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html

    Japanese Institute of Infectious Diseases, based on Diamond Princess data:

    Age, symptomatic confirmed case %, asymptomatic confirmed case %, total confirmed case%:
    60-69, 8%, 6%, 14%
    70-79, 9%, 13%, 22%
    80-89, 13%, 12%, 24%
    90-99 (11 people on board, 2 confirmed cases), 18%, 0%, 18%

    Symptomatic % + asymptomatic % = total confirmed cases %. The rest of the people can’t even be confirmed to have gotten it, which includes 82% of the 90+ year olds. But just out of the people who did (confirmed) get it only, the odds of symptoms look like this:

    60-69 years old, 30% chance of symptoms 70% chance asymptomatic
    70-79 years old, 37% chance of symptoms, 63% chance no symptoms.
    80-89 years old, 52% chance of symptoms, 48% chance of no symptoms.
    90-99 years old, 100% chance of symptoms (sample of 2).

    As per the numbers above, the % of people who are symptomatic are not the % of people who will die, just who get sick at all. Then you have to figure out the % of the symptomatic that will actually die. Using the numbers further above from the China data on chance of survival, and modifying it by the chance symptomatic since only the symptomatic will die, it would look like this:

    ( % chance of dying / % chance of contracting symptoms) * 100 =

    60-69: 12%
    70-79: 21%
    80-89: 28%

    You have to balance that somehow against this:

    https://www.geripal.org/2010/08/length-of-stay-in-nursing-homes-at-end.html

    The study authors used data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to describe the lengths of stay of older adults who resided in nursing homes at the end of life. What they found was that out of the 8,433 study participants who died between 1992 and 2006, 27.3% of resided in a nursing home prior to their death. Most of these patients (70%) actually died in the nursing home without being transferred to another setting like a hospital.

    The length of stay data were striking:

    the median length of stay in a nursing home before death was 5 months
    the average length of stay was longer at 14 months due to a small number of study participants who had very long lengths of stay
    65% died within 1 year of nursing home admission
    53% died within 6 months of nursing home admission

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  70. jason y says:
    @Steve Sailer

    we have better data than this. in fact, we have all the excess death data and seroprevalence data for Italy.

    if all excess mortality in Italy is attributable to Covid, which is likely, the IFRs by age are:

    0-50 0.02%
    50-59 0.16%
    60-69 0.5%
    70-79 2.5%
    80-89 6.5%
    90< 15%

    so, if herd immunity is assumed to be 60%, a rough estimate is 1.2 million deaths given the U.S. age demo.

    source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    , @Polynikes
  71. ic1000 says:
    @qwop

    However, antibody prevalence is not a perfect indicator of herd immunity: you have to factor in also the varying susceptibility to the disease as a baseline. This means that the “effective population” should be scaled by excluding children and adolescents which (1) don’t acquire the infection easily and (2) don’t show much symptoms and thus (3) presumably aren’t an important vector in the disease transmission.

    > antibody prevalence is not a perfect indicator of herd immunity: you have to factor in also the varying susceptibility to the disease as a baseline.

    Yes, an important point.

    > This means that the “effective population” should be scaled by excluding children and adolescents which (1) don’t acquire the infection easily

    This is not correct. See the preprint “An analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral load by patient age” by TC Jones, B Mühlemann et al. PDF.

    > (2) don’t show much symptoms

    Yes, fewer children and adolescents were tested, since most testing was/is symptom-driven

    > thus (3) presumably aren’t an important vector in the disease transmission.

    To be determined. An important open question, when considering re-opening schools.

    • Replies: @qwop
  72. @jason y

    Thanks.

    Has anybody done a Qaulity Adjusted Life Years analysis of this yet?

  73. @jimmyriddle

    My guess is that 85% of the excess deaths are being caused by the medicine (lockdown) and not the disease (Covid). Decimated Covid-infected nursing home patients who had a life expectancy of about 1.5 years anyway are probably 10% of the excess. And people that were actually tipped over the edge by Covid, in combination with their other life-threatening diseases, are maybe the last 5%.

    This could all be figured out if the authorities were willing to make any sincere effort to accurately ascertain causes of death. But the powers-that-be have made it clear that they want to over-inflate the Covid body count at all costs to justify their policies.

    The fear mongers, however, are the ones who should be required to meet a very high burden of proof before blowing $10 Trillion or whatever and suspending the Constitution. And they have the ability to compile and show the true facts regarding causes of death if they want to. The fact that they don’t do it is prima facie evidence that they are intentionally overstating the threat.

    If they ever come forward with evidence that they tested the bodies and did post-mortem analysis to show that Covid, and not something else, was the proximate cause of death, I’ll owe them an apology. But that won’t happen.

    What will happen is that they will continue to lie and obfuscate at least through November 3, and beyond. Then they will try to spin history along the lines of: “Things would have been much worse,” “We did the best with the information we had, “We had to err on the side of safety,” “at least fewer people died of traffic accidents,” “I was just relying on what others were telling me,” blah blah blah.

    • Agree: Hail, Bleuteaux, moshe
    • Disagree: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  74. @Polynikes

    ‘Sconsin, eh?

    Isn’t the Badger Bounce Back real life closely imitating the Babylon Bee parody of a 10-year plan for reopening the economy?

    Oh, I as your Gauleiter, er, Governor, order that restaurantsreopen, but only 5 patrons are allowed inside at a time.

    C’mon, this is a weak attempt at a joke. I am not saying that given the Virus Crisis, restaurants in the Badger State should reopen, but how is this allowing a restaurant to reopen? How is a restaurant going to be a going concern doing that? Mr. Evers is suffering from mental confusion, and I think someone should ask him, “Who is the president of the United States. What did you eat for lunch? Which state of the union are we in? What is the day of the week?”

    Bounce Back my foot!

    • Agree: Polynikes
  75. Mr Mox says:

    Another article suggesting that herd immunity for CV19 is much lower than the 60% often suggested :

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/11/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

    “Incorporating, in a reasonable manner, inhomogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity in a standard SEIR epidemiological model, rather than assuming a homogeneous population, causes a very major reduction in the herd immunity threshold, and also in the ultimate infection level if the epidemic thereafter follows an unconstrained path. Therefore, the number of fatalities involved in achieving herd immunity is much lower than it would otherwise be. In my view, the true herd immunity threshold probably lies somewhere between the 7% and 24% implied by the cases illustrated in Figures 4 and 5. If it were around 17%, which evidence from Stockholm County suggests the resulting fatalities from infections prior to the HIT being reached should be a very low proportion of the population.”

    Nicholas Lewis

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  76. Obesity can make covid lethal. Sweden has not been hit by obesity to the same degree as other western countries.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  77. qwop says:
    @ic1000

    This means that the “effective population” should be scaled by excluding children and adolescents which (1) don’t acquire the infection easily

    This is not correct. See the preprint “An analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral load by patient age” by TC Jones, B Mühlemann et al. PDF.

    That preprint is about the viral load in symptomatic children (and adults) that are not representative of COVID-19-afflicted children in general. These children were on hand for the study because they were so ill that they required hospital visits.

    Data from hospitalizations indicate that children are unlikely to become very ill. Whatever the reason, it does not matter as long as they do not get sick. Because if they do not develop a cough, they are not as effective in spreading the virus particles as aerosols. This has nothing to do with testing.

    The case of Denmark where schools have re-opened since a month without a spike (in fact, the opposite, transmission has continued to decline) in cases is an empirical data point that supports the hypothesis that children do not act as efficient vectors for this disease.

    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
  78. Polynikes says:
    @Steve Sailer

    No, I am not. Did you look at the data or the models?

    It has been well publicized from the beginning, but I’ll reiterate it here again: the IHME models assume social distancing and incorporate what the states are doing into their models.

    In fact, they go to great lengths to try and incorporate all kinds of social distancing and mobility data (too much, imo). But in any event I listed the revised projections for the end of May/beginning of April. The entire country was 2 weeks into the strictest parts of their lockdowns/social distancing policy. It was factored into their model and they were still way off, often days after their latest revision.

    Their hospital occupancy data has been the worst part of their model any way you try and slice it.

  79. @Mr Mox

    Are there historical examples of this?

    • Replies: @Mr Mox
  80. @YetAnotherAnon

    Unless there are about 1.5 million people with CV19 symptoms, undiagnosed but sticking it out at home*, CV19 is not just like even a bad flu year.

    Something like 80% of the infected don’t even get symptoms. Of the remaining 20%, many of them are mild symptoms.

    Why would you think they would all go to the hospital?

  81. @TelfoedJohn

    Norway is likely the fittest country in the Western world and has a low death rate.

  82. Anon[204] • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer

    But we have video of at least two individuals sneezing on their hands and touching elevator buttons and park benches. Why were they doing this? There have been white people caught sneezing on produce in grocery stores. Anti-Trump Deep Staters paying loony antifa-types to politically hurt Trump does not seem far fetched at all to me. I know the Chinese brass doens’t really like Trump. These people don’t care about yahoos like me getting sick. I would not put it past these groups to attempt to spread covid in order to keep America in slow-mode until after this election.

  83. @moshe

    I’d guess NYC has a lower % of fatties than most of the US.

    And the idea that obesity could explain the sharp spike in mortality seen in the last few weeks is a joke.

    Obesity weakens people, but something new is killing them in large numbers.

    • Replies: @moshe
  84. leterip says:
    @Steve Sailer

    IHME was not very good about predicting hospital use. I was following Massachusetts closely and 1 week before their peak, IHME was predicting between 260 and 7600 ICU beds needed at the peak. The actual was about 500 ICU beds needed at the peak. What is the point of even having a model that such a large range of potential outcomes.

  85. res says:
    @Lot

    Good point. I wonder if anyone has tried looking at subway daily ridership in COVID-19 models.

    Here is data for North America:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_rapid_transit_systems_by_ridership

    And an international version:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metro_systems

    Stockholm Metro is 67 miles long and had 355 million riders in 2018. Copenhagen Metro is 23.7 miles long and had 78.8 million riders in 2019.

    For comparison, Wuhan Metro is 211 miles long with 1222.55 million riders in 2019 and the New York City Subway is 236.2 miles long with 1697.8 million riders in 2019.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  86. HA says:
    @Mr. Anon

    “You are lying. That is exactly…”

    Whooosh!

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  87. @Steve Sailer

    Fine, Steve, let’s bring this back to the states and look at how many people are going to die or be physically hurt by this lock down.

    1. Suicide

    One in three people who commit suicide are unemployed.

    Every one percentage point rise in the unemployment rate increases the suicide rate by 0.78 . So, going from ~5% unemployed to 25% means the suicide rate jump as much as ~15 per 100,000. But, hey, let’s assume that many people figure they’ll get their job back so it only jumps by 7.5. There’s ~24,000 people killing themselves because they’ve lost their job or business and maybe their house and family.

    What about the people are just lonely. How many of them will commit suicide?

    2. Alcohol and drug abuse

    How many people will die due to accidental alcohol or drug abuse due to being unemployed or just bored stuck in their house.

    3. Domestic abuse

    Domestic abuse increase when people are stuck in the houses or unemployed or, especially, both. Lots of women and children (and men, for that matter) getting smacked around so might – might – be able to give some 80-year-olds an extra year or two.

    As you like to joke Steve, won’t someone think of the children, except in this case, you’re right.

    4. Diabetes

    If you think this lock down has been good for people’s weight and eating habits, you’re insane.

    5. Children never born

    How many people who were thinking of having children will choose against it due to losing a job or economic uncertainty. Birth rates always fall in recessions and especially depressions.

    So great job everyone. You’re killing people, getting kids smacked around and stopping the creation of children who would have lived for decades so we can all sit around destroying the economy for likely very, very little gain.

    Adults understand that life is about trade-offs. The very least you can do is admit what you’re asking of the rest of us.

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @Anonymous
  88. res says:
    @Erik Sieven

    Do I look at the wrong table or it 0.145% for those under 60 and 3.28% for those over 60? For younger cohorts IFR is even less than 0.145%. It seems that for people under the median age in industrialized countrys COVID-19 has a lower IFR than the flu.

    I think you are comparing the COVID-19 under 60 IFR to the flu all ages IFR. You need to compare the age group IFRs for both.

    If you think I am wrong please give all of your relevant numbers with references.

    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
  89. @Anon

    Check out my reply to Steve’s reply to you. This should have been Steve’s time to shine, using statistics, wit and a sober mind to show that the trade offs involved in a shut down of this magnitude were ridiculous. Instead, he has, well, not accorded himself well.

    • Replies: @Anon
  90. Hail says: • Website

    Does anybody have any real data on Stockholm?

    I posted some of the randomized population studies in Stockholm in April in comment-sections here, but in truth by May 12 we no longer need them.

    The actua, observed data is in. Deaths, ICU Intakes, and total ICU patients are all in steady, sustained decline in Stockholm, and in Sweden generally.

    We can now see the outlines of the epidemic’s full impact in Sweden, and it is great news:

    Stay-Open Sweden set to lose 0.02% of total population to Coronavirus, in line with usual peak flu years; 2020 may equal 2018 in total mortality; why did we destroy the economy over this?

    The 0.02% is based on those dying of the virus, not dying with it, those who would have died anyway. It could be 0.03%. There is no sign that full-year mortality will not be unusually high; if it is, it won’t be because of this virus’ impact.

  91. @qwop

    Is the antibody test able to distinguish between COVID-19 and the normal sort of Corona viruses that cause around 20% of common cold infections?

    Given that the S-protein on COVID-19 is highly conserved I would like to see real evidence that the antibody tests are not just detecting antibodies to common-cold Corona viruses.

    • Replies: @qwop
  92. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail

    Also, the epidemic in Sweden would have been substantially more minor still, if not for the higher number of deaths in Stockholm reportedly due to nursing homes staffed by refugees and due to some older Somali refugees with Vitamin D deficiency.

    Deaths by region in Sweden, through April 19 (reporting date, April 30):

    ________________

    SWEDEN: 103% of normal deaths in 2020 to April 19 (compared to 2015-19 avg.);
    Stockholm: 123% of normal deaths;
    Norrbotten: 110% of normal deaths;
    Södermanland: 109% of normal deaths;
    Dalarna: 109% of normal deaths;
    Västmanland: 105% of normal deaths;
    Jämtland: 105% of normal deaths;
    Uppsala: 103% of normal deaths;
    Östergötland: 102% of normal deaths;
    Jönköping: 101% of normal deaths;
    Kronoberg: 101% of normal deaths;
    Gotland: 100% of normal deaths;
    Västra Götaland: 99% of normal deaths;
    Halland: 97% of normal deaths;
    Västernorrland: 96% of normal deaths;
    Skåne: 96% of normal deaths;
    Kalmar: 96% of normal deaths;
    Örebro: 94% of normal deaths;
    Gävleborg: 93% of normal deaths;
    Värmland: 93% of normal deaths;
    Västerbotten: 92% of normal deaths;
    Blekinge: 91% of normal deaths;
    For Sweden without Stockholm County, it was 101%, i.e., just about normal (100%).

    This is probably partly because the virus’ transmission phase started later outside Stockholm. Still, none of these regions are showing no signs so far of rising to Stockholm excess-mortality levels, or they would have done so by now. Stockholm showed moderate excess deaths in Week 13, and significant excess deaths in Week 14, 15, and 16.

    A large neighboring region to Stockholm, Södermanland, had a rise in deaths starting about the same time, but it rose much less, standing at only 110% normal mortality, now also apparently past its peak. This might be expected to be more like the national norm, considerably lower than Stockholm’s due to the nursing home staff problem. The other high-end cases, Norrbotten and Dalarna, I expect could be explained by having high-average-age populations.

    • Agree: Lot
  93. res says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    I tried to find figures for UK deaths in 1957/8. The British Ministry Of Health in 1960 produced a document called “Influenza Epidemic In England And Wales, 1957-58” – it’s quoted in lots of papers, usually with a Google Scholar link. Damned if I can find it.

    That is oddly hard to find. Based on a more detailed book reference I found it is in Volume 100 (1960) of Reports on Public Health and Medical Subjects
    But aside from a reference (searchable, but no full text) at Hathi Trust I can’t find that either.
    https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/000551244

    This paper has some good detail on the 1957 flu in England and Wales:
    DIFFUSION OF INFLUENZA IN ENGLAND AND WALES
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1971.tb00815.x

    ABSTRACT In 1957 a new variant of influenza appeared in China and subsequently swept through a highly susceptible world population in classic pandemic style. England and Wales were infected chiefly through their seaports in June. An epidemic of twelve weeks began in early September, with about six million cases of influenza. Surrogate analysis of spatial components of the epidemic reveals the emergence of primary foci in northern England, followed by a southward shift of infection. Central place systems reversed virus flow‐lines in some areas. Onset, peaking, and total weight of the epidemic correlate with distance from two northern seaports, and with room densities. Onset was correlated with population potential. The southward advancing epidemic wave, as depicted in a centrogram, followed the ridgeway of highest population potential. Closed communities, either sociocultural or occupational, tended to stimulate foci development within cities through heavier seeding. Some also generated a double‐wave or biphasic effect in the city’s epidemic cycle.

    Full text is available on Libgen or Sci-Hub using DOI 10.1111/j.1467-8306.1971.tb00815.x

    Figure 1 shows quarterly deaths for England and Wales from 1948 to 1965. 1951 was the worst year.

    1957 was notable for its early peak (Sep 7 – Nov 23). See Figure 2.

    • Replies: @danand
  94. HA says:
    @Polynikes

    “No, I am not….social distancing policy…was factored into [the IHME] model and they were still way off…”

    Yes, you are, and so what? The claim that there are obvious flaws in the IHME model (one that Cochran would heartily endorse, though if I’m wrong, perhaps he can chime in and correct my misreading) has little or nothing to do with the coronahoaxers’ claim that social distancing is worthless or even counterproductive.

    If you present me with a model of gravitation that is off by a factor of ten, that doesn’t mean that gravity is some deep-state hoax promulgated to unseat Trump, or that the guard rails along the cliff’s edge are a bad idea.

    The IHME is not the only model out there, and if yours tells you that social distancing doesn’t do anything, maybe that is the one you should be worrying about.

    • Replies: @Polynikes
  95. Hail says: • Website
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    How many people who were thinking of having children will choose against it due to losing a job or economic uncertainty. Birth rates always fall in recessions and especially depressions.

    So great job everyone. You’re killing people, getting kids smacked around and stopping the creation of children who would have lived for decades so we can all sit around destroying the economy for likely very, very little gain.

    As I wrote on these pages in April, imagine if people had decided some circulating flu virus was a big-enough deal to trigger a major Panic and major recession a year before you were born? There’s a good chance you wouldn’t have ever gotten a chance at all.

    I would expect to see one of these, blue shaded area, beginning about mid-December 2020 and well into 2021 at the very least:
    __
    All for a flu virus that has a calculated fatality rate of ca. 0.1%, with evidence suggesting it will not cause significant full-year excess mortality? By how many times will the birth-rate-drop alone swamp the number of life-years lost to the Panic destroying/disrupting family formation and child creation? For each lost child, 85 lost life-years.

  96. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @Steve Sailer

    Also Covid doesn’t “replace” other deaths but adds to them.

    Comparing the deaths to other common problems we’ve come to accept–like traffic accidents–is also kind of fallacious. We’ve accepted the carnage and cost of our highways because, whether we say it explicitly or not, it is a cost incurred by our modern, technological way of life.

    I’m all for questioning that way of life, but the comparison to Covid is inapt. Covid has the potential to kill similar numbers of people–but not as a result of inherently dangerous activity that is nonetheless essential to a functioning economy and society (not just traffic accidents, but all work-related deaths are part of this calculus).

    How is Covid different? Because it isn’t acquired in the messy process of society-building. It isn’t a byproduct of necessary activity. It’s a byproduct of just living.

    All that said, I think the shutdown strategy is looking less and less sensible all the time.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    , @Kratoklastes
  97. Pericles says:
    @qwop

    I have to say I’m surprised that children don’t get this flu. Anyone who’s spent time around them knows they go to school or preschool to get infected with disease du jour and then wander around openly coughing on whoever is near while snot is running freely out of their noses. But not this time?

    • Replies: @qwop
  98. qwop says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    The particular antibody tests that will be revealed next week are not your commercial-type test you take yourself in your home, much like a pregnancy test. There could be considerable cross-sensitivity in such a test, I agree (depending on the quality, of course).

    These tests are lab tests done by the Swedish Health Authorities using venous blood samples and are cross-checked against blood drawn from blood donors prior to the pandemic (to avoid the problem you describe).

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
  99. @Lars Porsena

    “Something like 80% of the infected don’t even get symptoms. “

    Cite your sources, please.

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  100. Pericles says:
    @Lot

    The Stockholm subway also has a hub-and-spoke architecture. All the subway lines converge at Stockholm Central, itself connected to the Central Station (for rail and buses). All in all, usually very busy and thus a natural spot for spreading disease throughout the area and possibly the rest of Sweden. But the pictures I’ve seen have shown it as basically empty for the time being.

  101. epebble says:

    If Herd Immunity is a possible good strategy for Covid, why is it not a good strategy for other diseases? Why hasn’t it worked against Malaria, Tuberculosis, Influenza, HIV/AIDS or even Common Cold? Why was the discovery of vaccines for Small Pox and Polio much heralded and celebrated as great achievement?

  102. @res

    Notice that the most extreme sanctions resulted in a higher overall infection rate than one level less strict because they did not allow herd immunity to be achieved. This is the scenario I think the US lockdowns may be setting us up for. Figure 2 shows the total infections over time for each approach (i.e. the area under the infection curve in Figure 1).

    They advocate gradual lifting of restrictions.

    Yes. In their generic model, which sets R0 to 5, relaxing the strict lockdown gradually gives a total infection rate of about 50% (Figure 4), against 55% if its lifted overnight (Figure 2). As I understand it, this is because relaxing the lockdown too quickly will lead to more infected people than needed for herd immunity.

  103. @Hail

    I’d hit the “Agree” button but I haven’t been commenting here lately because it’s too painful to watch Steve and other normally competent people embarrass themselves.

    But, yes, my gut has been telling me all along that the Covid’s biggest victim will be the Never Born.

    Whenever I think of the Boomers, I’m reminded of the ancient Greek proverb: “A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit.”

    The Boomer literally do the opposite. They’d rather destroy the future for those that come after them so they can enjoy a bit of shade now.

    • Replies: @DPG
  104. @peterike

    Point is: something is doing the killing.

  105. @Currier House

    That’s an old map… when it was made, the majority of people tested were those with severe symptoms, leading to high rates of positive tests.

    As of today, the number of people testing positive in zip code 10014 (West Village) is 275 of 940 tested (29%). The total population of the zip is ~32,000, so about 3% of the inhabitants have actually been tested.

  106. HA says:
    @peterike

    “Infection correlates to lockdown severity for the most part.”

    No duh. Areas containing dense urban areas and the like are more likely to be subjected to lockdowns, and despite that, they still manage to have more infections. Is that really a big surprise?

    I suspect I could put together a similar graph that correlates the presence of large levees (which — surprise, surprise — are more likely to be constructed along cities like New Orleans than, say, Phoenix) with hurricane flooding. I suppose you’re going to tell me that those worthless levees must be what caused all the flooding and that a hurricane is just a “little extra rain, bro”.

    [MORE]

    This is similar to the big stink that anti-vaxxers made about an outdated study that showed that childhood flu vaccinations correlate with increased hospitalizations. You can find one example of that in the comments preceding this one.

    The counter-argument, which the anti-vaxxers didn’t bother considering, was that for children who were especially vulnerable to flu (due to asthma or whatever) doctors insisted that the children get vaccinated and didn’t let up until they were able to wear their loony parents down. And yeah, those children were indeed more likely to get hospitalized, even after the shot, but that doesn’t mean the doctors were wrong. (A more comprehensive study later vindicated them, though — suprise, surprise — the anti-vaxxers are evidently still sticking with that much smaller and less reliable early study.)

  107. @YetAnotherAnon

    Make your counter claim if you like. What is the percentage, 0% according to you? 5%?

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  108. @epebble

    Right. Smallpox was a monstrous killer for thousands of years. Polio was cause of social distancing up into the 1950s. Philip Roth, rummaging through his youthful memories, wrote a short novel late in life about a polio epidemic. Lots of parents didn’t let their kids go to big league baseball games in polio season (summer?) up until the polio vaccines came along.

  109. Since I looked them up for my own amusement I offer these reported stats from my own NY county as a quick snapshot — and because we have just about 100,000 residents so the numbers are easy to play with!

    Confirmed Putnam County Cases Thus Far: 1250
    COVID deaths: 55
    That’s one confirmed case for every 80 residents
    One death for every 22.7 confirmed cases
    One death for every 1818 residents.
    So should we be worried, and how much?

    We are just 90 minutes from NYC, and yet the demographics and lifestyle here are nicely small town/rural/suburban. Lots of older people. We have some Guatemalans living in crowded conditions but generally it’s quite white and rates high on quality of life. It’s a nice quiet flyover-type backwater to spend a lockdown, but something’s gotta give.

  110. res says:
    @peterike

    Thanks. That is interesting. I’m not sure I agree with their conclusions though. Regarding

    But, but, but… Correlation is not causation! States could have locked down more tightly in response to the infections! The lockdown rating was as of April 6, 2020 and the infection data are as of May 11, 2020.

    It would be more reasonable to look at the April 6, 2020 infection rates and growth since then to make causality judgments. In both directions.

    This page they linked shows the methodology behind the lockdown rating:
    https://wallethub.com/edu/most-aggressive-states-against-coronavirus/72307/

    P.S. It is worth noting that they are interpreting an ordinal measurement (rank of state by the lockdown rating) as an interval scale. This is a bad idea.
    https://conjointly.com/kb/levels-of-measurement/

  111. @Hail

    WordPress is probably going to delete your blog soon.

    Do you have a backup?

  112. @Steve Sailer

    Has anybody done a Qaulity Adjusted Life Years analysis

    A genie makes you a deal. You will hibernate for one year when you are 30. As compensation, when you are 78, advancing in age will be suspended for 5 years, a 5 to 1 increase in life.

    Do you take it?

  113. @epebble

    It works for diseases that aren’t too fatal. Small pox is highly lethal. Malaria it could not work against; that’s not even a virus but a parasite that needs to be killed. It could work for measles in a well-fed, healthy country.

    Look up the statistics for measles cases last year in the USA, and look for deaths. Compare Madagascar.

    Better, of course, would be to kill measles entirely, which cannot survive in any case in a city of fewer than25,000; it will die out as it comes in contact with immune people pretty quickly.

    We should also kill off TB, though it remains in cattle and other animals. We could kill it in humans with universal vaccination and hunting down and curing infected people with it.

    • Replies: @epebble
    , @Bill Jones
  114. @Dennis Dale

    “not as a result of inherently dangerous activity that is nonetheless essential to a functioning economy and society ”

    Automobile deaths in 1885 were 0. So, auto driving is not “essential,” since that society functioned just fine without them.

    Close all the roads until we can be assured no one dies in this non-essential activity.

    • Replies: @Dennis Dale
  115. Polynikes says:
    @HA

    Yes, you are, and so what?

    Nope.

    I simply responded to Sailer’s assertion that the IHME model has been good at predicting hospitalization data.

    It has not. It has been horrible.

    Sailer then tried to pass that off as the model being wrong because we went into lockdown. Thus the crux of my post pointing out that the IHME specifically seeks to include and factor in as much data about social mobility and lockdowns as it can.

    If you present me with a model of gravitation that is off by a factor of ten, that doesn’t mean that gravity is some deep-state hoax promulgated to unseat Trump, or that the guard rails along the cliff’s edge are a bad idea.

    The IHME is not the only model out there, and if yours tells you that social distancing doesn’t do anything, maybe that is the one you should be worrying about

    No idea where you got that, or what you are going on about here.

    I made no assertions other than the IHME model is not good at predicting hospitalization rates (which sadly was used as a one of the pillars of the “bend the curve” argument.)

    • Replies: @HA
  116. qwop says:
    @epebble

    Herd Immunity means that epidemics, should they arise, are self-limiting. It does not mean that the disease is eradicated.

    Furthermore, for there to be herd immunity, there has to be immunity. The body will not produce lasting antibodies unless stressed (there are, after all, finite resources also for our immune system). Infections that are quickly cleared hence do not produce immunity; but there is no need anyway, since they are not serious.

    For diseases that are very serious, “immunity” is acquired through death of the patient, but this does only provide herd immunity in the long run through natural selection (e. g. sickle-cell anemia and malaria).

    COVID will remain with humanity, just like the Spanish Flu, and the Hong Kong flu, and the Asian flu before it. However, the populations will have some acquired resistance through repeat exposure, and selection pressure will tend to make the virus less virulent with time, so that the deadliness of this years pandemic will not be repeated for a while.

    • Replies: @utu
  117. @Currier House

    He had to know he was blowing a permanent hole in the state and city budget with the lockdown. NYS spends over $23B in Medicaid, with the Federal contribution raising it to over 50B. This, by the way, is larger than the entire PA state budget.

    Of the 23B in Medicaid spending, most probably goes for indigent elderly in nursing homes. So, maybe it was a way to eliminate, old, costly, (mostly) white people, if you want to be paranoid about it? I find it very hard to believe, but the possibility is not 0 with a man like Cuomo.

  118. leterip says:

    A bit of topic. I recommend perusing the data at Euromomo. It tracks deaths in a number of European countries over a number of years in different age groups. I think it will be handy, going forward, to compare excess deaths in different countries. For example, did the harsher lockdowns only shift the deaths into the future or were the deaths permanently eliminated.

    https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    I found a couple interesting observations. One is that Denmark and Finland are held up as doing better than Sweden because they locked down. What I found interesting is that Denmark and Finland seem to not be susceptible to the Flu over the past few years compared to other countries. They literally have no “bumps” for excess flu deaths. On the other hand, countries that tended to have high flu death “bumps” in the past also have the biggest Covid bumps.

    I also found the curves for deaths, based on ages interesting. They confirm the conventional wisdom that covid is actually less deadly than flu for kids under 14. For those older it appears worse than the flu but is very country dependent. Not a few countries currently have less excess deaths from Covid compared to previous flus. Others are roughly equivalent. And some have had much higher deaths than from flu. Overall it appears worse than the flu but it varies a great deal between countries.

  119. qwop says:
    @Pericles

    Indeed, that is funny about this disease. Looking at confirmed cases in Sweden, in the age bracket 0-19 years, there are only 332 confirmed cases (out of roughly 2 million individuals).

  120. epebble says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Thanks for your response; But I am still not clear on the basis of optimism that Herd Immunity works at all. Take Influenza – kills very few people (in ratio of infected), most get it some time or other, but still no herd immunity. Common Cold – no fatality whatsoever, everyone gets it (sometimes multiple times a year) but zero herd immunity. Malaria germ is a protozoan (animal) and Tuberculosis is from bacteria. They have been around for thousands of years, kill a fraction of those infected, but still no herd immunity.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  121. danand says:
    @res

    “Figure 1 shows quarterly deaths for England and Wales from 1948 to 1965. 1951 was the worst year.

    1957 was notable for its early peak (Sep 7 – Nov 23). See Figure 2.”

    Res, interesting stuff, thank you.

    CCBBC6C2-CF5E-4159-9039-F857567754C3

    1F046BC1-5ECF-457A-B971-BC7D5888CB4C

    0CC47E92-3846-4E1E-B235-C96D136972F7

    31805E77-3990-4301-8CB2-8BB12304076B

    94433B35-B8A8-4054-A643-345EB23A1079

    A0B07EB1-627D-40E8-B781-58992277D8BF

    C7686E35-EFA4-4B95-9CD5-0EE5B893F462

    https://dacemirror.sci-hub.tw/journal-article/11d187800b81ad7457febb3a04c9dc8c/hunter1971.pdf?download=true

    • Replies: @HA
  122. If the Swedes have figured out how to have a higher proportion of their metropolis infected than in New York City and without New York City level deaths, they really ought to share their secret.

    It’s the Surströmming: If you can eat this putrid fish and survive, there’s no way Corona-Chan is going to get you.

  123. anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:

    Nobody has any data on this situation that is clear enough to make better decisions than have been made so far. All those so excited to make graphs and apply analytic techniques to supposed numbers are losing sight of the fundamentally poor data hygiene and uniformity.

  124. HA says:
    @danand

    “1957 was notable for its early peak (Sep 7 – Nov 23). See Figure 2.”

    Interestingly, that just happens to be the year when an outbreak of Asian flu
    appeared which was subsequently credited with reducing the death rate associated with the Hong Kong flu:

    The CDC estimated that about 100,000 people died in the U.S [during the Hong Kong flu of the late 60’s]; most excess deaths were in those 65 and older. However, fewer people died during this pandemic than in previous pandemics for several reasons:

    1. Some immunity against the N2 flu virus may have been retained in populations struck by the Asian Flu strains which had been circulating since 1957…

  125. varsicule says:
    @Anon

    It is not replacing flu deaths. They are in addition. Excess deaths from Covid are obvious when you look at the overall death rates by week and compare them with prior years. In fact, there is strong evidence we are undercounting Covid deaths in the U.S. (not by a great deal, but some) The only good news I can see in the excess death numbers is that the U.S. so far is doing better than the big European countries (when you look at excess deaths as a percentage over the historical baseline) with the exception of Germany.

  126. varsicule says:
    @peterike

    I’m calling BS. I have been tracking excess deaths for a while now. This is not a matter of playing with the Y axis. Total deaths are in a pretty small band for the U.S. We are spiking well above (like 20-30% above). There is not enough noise in the historical numbers to account for this.

  127. @epebble

    Why hasn’t it worked against Malaria, Tuberculosis, Influenza, HIV/AIDS or even Common Cold?

    Herd immunity can only work in the case of an infectious illness where IMMUNE-MEDIATED RECOVERY occurs in many of the afflicted.

    This type of immune-mediated recovery does NOT occur in HIV/AIDS nor in TB. Also, HIV is not acquired through casual contact, so there is an easier route to prevention (don’t engage in receptive anal intercourse or stick dirty needles into yourself.)

    Herd immunity DOES occur with the common cold and common influenza(*). It is precisely because populations are constantly attaining herd immunity to various strains of the cold and the flu each year that these viruses must CONSTANTLY MUTATE to remain viable and survive. (That constant mutation is the evolutionary response to the herd immunity that is always occurring, is the reason the influenza vaccine must be modified every year to remain effective.)

    *in modern times, int the case of flu, vaccination takes on some of the heavy-lifting along with herd immunity

    • Thanks: epebble
  128. Dutch Boy says:

    Fortunately for the Swedes, Cuomo isn’t governor of Sweden.

  129. @qwop

    Do you know of any papers that provide information about the antibodies for COVID-19 and whether or not they are different from antibodies for other Corona viruses we get?

    • Replies: @ic1000
  130. anon[852] • Disclaimer says:

    Pretty good in depth article about the Navajo from the Associated Press.

    https://apnews.com/c77cc3c537c9a2510b67dcb631b4d988

    One reason the Navajos go to towns like Gallup is to get water, which they haul back to their homes in containers. Because many Navajo houses do not have running water. That might be a factor in spread of respiratory disease and some other things.

  131. Anon[340] • Disclaimer says:

    Anyone who wants to see what Covid is actually doing compared to what people think it’s going to do, needs to look at the John Hopkins website, click on various continental European counties, and look at their daily cases tabs. In nearly all continental European counties, what they show is a new daily case rate that’s less than one-tenth of their peak and a graph that show a strong downwards trend on the way towards petering out.

    When most of those countries got hit, the virus spread quickly enough that it found a lot of the most vulnerable people in the first 1.5 months of its spread. At that point, many people started using masks and social distancing. With the most vulnerable either immune or dead, and others social distancing, the virus isn’t finding easy pickings any longer. In three more weeks, many European countries are going to have new case rates in the single digits.

    People need to stop focusing on total case numbers and thinking retarded stuff like, “Oh, that’s the total number we have right now,” instead of realizing that most people who have caught the virus have now recovered and can’t transmit it anymore, and that the new case rate is more important than anything else.

    What’s more, if you’ve been looking at US data, those states that report recoveries now have recovery rates that are about 50% of more of the total cases. We’re just a bit behind Europe.

    Those states that are not reporting recoveries or who have missing recovery rates are doing so because they can’t get their unreliable black and Hispanic populations to report back. Minorities often ignore the follow up contact/exam because they can’t be bothered, some of them are illegals who don’t want to be caught, some are afraid of more medical bills, some have warrants and are avoiding authorities who might report them, and some just don’t want a 6-inch swab shoved up their nose again.

    Because of this, we don’t have proper recovery rates for our minority populations, but what’s more, we now know they’re our hardest hit populations (outside whites in nursing homes), so recovery rates from them are vital to give us an idea about the course of the pandemic. But we’re not going to get that data.

  132. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Lars Porsena

    Something like 80% of the infected don’t even get symptoms. Of the remaining 20%, many of them are mild symptoms.

    While most people with COVID-19 develop only mild or uncomplicated illness, approximately 14% develop severe disease that requires hospitalization and oxygen support, and 5% require admission to an intensive care unit

    https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331446/WHO-2019-nCoV-clinical-2020.4-eng.pdf

    “mild or uncomplicated illness” doesn’t mean “no symptoms.”
    “severe disease” doesn’t mean “many of them have mild symptoms”

  133. Polymath says:
    @Bill H

    I call bullshit. Tell me the NAME of an actual person who literally predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US by May 1, and give me a link, or I will regard you as a bullshitter and ignore you henceforth.

  134. Polynikes says:
    @jason y

    Interesting study. It looks like they went to a lot of work to flush out the data from those provinces, and I don’t have a lot of issue with how they did it. I will say this is likely to fall on the high side of estimates. The issue I have is taking the worst case areas and extrapolating that out to other places. At some point a study/model has to converge with reality for it to be taken seriously.

    So we get to this:

    so, if herd immunity is assumed to be 60%, a rough estimate is 1.2 million deaths given the U.S. age demo.

    That seems like a very dour prediction. I’d be willing to put up money against that prediction. In the United States cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are dropping rapidly. This is occurring most places.

    [MORE]

    That is sort of a straight line extrapolation that can’t hold up to scrutiny, unless you believe the whole of the US will fare similarly to the worst hit areas of Italy. I could do the opposite calculation for lower hit areas. Let’s take S. Korea for example.

    They have 258 deaths and cases have basically flat-lined there indicating it is basically over. Let’s take the absolute lowest estimate for herd immunity proffered for a heterogeneous infection rate: 7%. That would be 3.5 million infections in S. Korea. That’s a .0073% IFR based on deaths vs. the lowest herd immunity estimate.

    We know that the above IFR for S. Korea can hardly be right…at least not if you extrapolate it out US deaths. We’re likely past that number here in the US. Similarly, we know the US isn’t going to get to 1 million deaths given current trends.

    There has to be a better way at getting to a good numbers besides taking the worst and best case scenarios and feeding them into competing narratives. We need good numbers so we can get good predictions. Then we can weigh them against the costs of mitigation. That is what should be occurring among educated people in the West.

  135. @Lars Porsena

    “What is the percentage?”

    I don’t know. That’s why I asked for your sources, as you appeared to have some figures. But you’re making them up. Not helpful.

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  136. Polymath says:
    @Hail

    You moron, Sweden has ALREADY lost 0.033% of its population to coronavirus, only counting reported COVID deaths, higher if you use excess deaths. You think that not only will no one else die of it, but that some of the ones who have will come back to life?

    • Troll: Federalist
  137. @HA

    HA – It reduced the US deaths from 116,000 (Asian flu 58) to 100,000 (HK flu 68), so not a massive reduction (CDC figures).

    • Replies: @HA
  138. @res

    I thought I had read somewhere the IFR for influenza is much less dependent on age than it is the case with COVID-19, but now I looked again and I could not find IFR by age groups for influenza. Anyway this report https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html gives some information on mortality for influenza for different age groups. If I understand this right you can calculate estimates for age-specific IFR with column “Illness rate” and column “mortality rate” in table 2. This would lead to lower age-specific IFR for almost all age groups for influenza than for COVID-19 according to the study about Hubei that we are talking about, with the exception of young children. In the end IFR for COVID-19 in developed countries might be lower than the IFR observed in Hubei, e.g. the well-known study for Heinsberg, Germany suggest a total IFR 0.36%. So I think for some younger age groups IFR of COVID-19 might be smaller than for influenza. Still my claim that this might be case for the big age group 0-median age is most likely wrong.

    • Replies: @res
  139. @Peter Frost

    So what is the number with no symptoms?

    What you cited was that 86% were “mild” or less, which serves the point I was making with it just fine. Most of these people would not go to a hospital. I was responding to ‘unless there are 1.5M undiagnosed staying at home’. Seems like there would certainly be at least that many.

    “Something like 80%” tells you the number is not being presented as an official figure. What is the percentage with no symptoms? Obviously we don’t know exactly. I’m open to info.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316?query=featured_coronavirus

    Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.

    “At admission”, so that doesn’t mean they won’t develop symptoms, but it doesn’t mean they will either. Is there any follow-up survey? How many develop symptoms at some point, 7.9% of the 87.9%? What would we expect to see based on the fact that they were randomly sampled, how far progressed should we presume them to be on average?

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?query=C19&cid=DM90482_NEJM_COVID-19_Newsletter&bid=186137539

    Targeted testing Jan 31 – Mar 15, N=177, no symptoms = 86.4%
    Targeted testing Mar 16 – Mar 31, N=1044, no symptoms = 94.3%

    At far lower N values,
    Population screening Mar 15 – Apr 1, N=87, no symptoms = 58.6%
    Random sample screening Apr 1 – Apr 4, N=13, no symptoms = 46.2%

    I’ve seen others but I can’t find them easily ATM. What about those meat packing plants? And I believe there was a study done in a jail in a western state that turned up something like N=1000 but 98% with no symptoms. Also the homeless people studies. Not finding any of them at the moment.

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
  140. Travis says:

    We cannot trust the WHO data from March 12

    in New York City the hospitalization rate has been lower than 5%, closer to 2%.

    In NYC 25% of the population has recovered from CV by April 25, when 25% of the population was found to have antibodies. 2,200,000 New Yorkers have recovered and yet a total of 48,000 have been hospitalized as of May 12, which is about 2% of those known to be infected by April 25.

  141. Well one data set worth examining might be the percentage of blacks and ashkenazis in both cities.

    Another might be the prevalence of Cuomo’s in positions to enforce the forcible admittance of the diseased into enclaves of the most vulnerable.

  142. @TomSchmidt

    ” We could kill it in humans with universal vaccination and hunting down and curing infected people with it.”

    You had me right up till the words “and curing”.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  143. @Alexander Turok

    What the heck are you getting at here, Alex? Is this some kind of parable? You’re not Jesus, and I don’t get even some of His parables. This one sucks.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
    , @moshe
  144. @Polynikes

    Verrry interesting! The Spanish Flu burned out abruptly after the second wave (the latter which was more virulent than the first, which is why Fauci is understandably anxious about “getting back to normal” too soon). There have been several theories advanced (according to the Wiki piece on this subject) as to why it flamed out, including the possibility that the virus mutated sort of in reverse i.e. to a less lethal if harmless form. Interestingly though, no one seems to know–any more than they know with certainty how it originated in the first place—and that pandemic took place over a hundred years ago! Which tells you how much of this stuff is a crap shoot.

  145. ogunsiron says:
    @Bill H

    or the one that told us 2.2 million would die from Coronavirus in the US by May 1st

    To be fair, that kind of death count is always in the case the disease is just left to run wild, isn’t it? It’s unfair to compare the number of deaths after various measures have been taken with the number of death under “no mitigation at all” conditions. It’d be fair to compare actual “no mitigation” deaths with projected deaths under those conditions though.

    Then again, is there even such a thing as a “no mitigation at all” epidemic?

    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
  146. ogunsiron says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Steve Hsu at information processing has taken that approach to an extent.

  147. Anonymous[245] • Disclaimer says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    I don’t think anyone said this was going to be easy or cost free, or fun. But good policy is about choosing the lesser evil when there are two evils.

    Letting CV wash through the population early would have resulted in an overwhelmed health care system and a lot of death, a higher IFR. Slowing down transmission allowed better treatment protocols to emerge and more knowledge generally. There are and were many unanswered questions.

    Aiming for herd immunity (if even meaningful) through mass infection will be time consuming. Several years by my calculation. You can’t force people to get this disease and they will avoid doing so. As Steve originally said, not much difference between elimination and curve flattening but much benefit to elimination. You do need strong border measures though to return to normality internally.

    Life can continue at not far from normal simply with mass mask wearing, while cases exist. Elimination is happening in more population dense countries and no reason to expect it not to work in USA IMO if aimed for.

  148. Redman says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Don’t forget the quants whose models said that everything would be fine and dandy with CDOs back in 2007.

    I mean what could possibly go wrong with all those mortgages to poor blacks and Hispanics? Just bundle ‘em up with other mortgages and the models tell us it’s less risky than a T-Bill. Just leave it to us, the best and the brightest. The ones with the super modeling skills. We’ve got this.

  149. @HA

    I remember both the Asian and Hong Kong pandemics. I was 10 when the former took place, 21 when the latter took place (in 1968). The level of media coverage in both cases ? Next to zilch! Compared to 2022 the media during both pandemics was primitive and and in any event in 1968 they had bigger fish to fry (Vietnam, the King and RFK killings, the campus riots etc.). As noted, 100K died in the US in 1968-’69. The population then was about 200m, which means that at present we need to hit between 160 and 170k before we start talking Hong Kong flu levels. It could happen of course, possibly even exceed that number. This has to be said though: At the risk of sounding a tad cynical, this is the first pandemic to be covered on “prime time”, meaning during the Information Age. How much of what we are experiencing is real as to being at least unintentionally ginned up. Which raises a thought question: It was I believe Kant who first suggested that Deep Reality–the “really real”, “the thing in itself” (as Heidegger put it)–can never be known with certainty. We must make do with our senses, and the senses distort.Thus, are we responding to reality or our PERCEPTION of reality, the latter which is necessarily distorted by the way “reality” is depicted? Are we responding at levels approaching hysteria to something that is real, or to something that “appears” to be real. I don’t know, and in a way it doesn’t matter. In either case, it inspires fear. And as J.B.S. Haldane once wrote, fear is the most powerful of emotions, of which fear of the unknown is the worse.

    • Replies: @Redman
    , @HA
  150. Redman says:
    @Anonymous

    That’s true about no advisors, now that Stephen Miller is in self-quarantine. Is there anyone other than him that has said a single thing that makes sense? I can’t recall any.

    Let’s hope the boomer Trump can figure out Zoom…

  151. Anonymous[245] • Disclaimer says:
    @Polynikes

    If you think that in countries like Australia the number of new cases per day now being about 10 is just due to burning out, you need to research properly.

    We are social distancing, limiting gatherings, shutting off visits to nursing homes, stopping restaurant dine in, pubs, and testing everyone at the slightest symptom now, contact tracing. Hand sanitiser everywhere you go. Schools mostly shut for months now. No sportsball, no gyms.

    If someone has an infection, it has hard for that infection to spread to one person.

    Eliminate all of those things and it gets out of control again.

    Even in beloved supposedly “She’ll be right mate” Sweden, cases have stabilised at about 600 per day for a month now, with voluntary measures. They are not doing nothing now, except, they have a longer road to eliminate. For a 10M population the herd immunity strat would be 10M x 0.8 /600 = 13.3k days. If undercounted by factor of 10, still 1330 days. I.e. years.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden

    If you want to get to elimination, quicker to start from 10 cases per day than 600.

    • Replies: @Redman
  152. Redman says:
    @kpkinsunnyphiladelphia

    This is starting to look like Dustin Hoffman in “Wag The Dog.” An orchestrated production of sorts.

    I had CV and my father had it. But I still don’t know anyone who has been hospitalized for it. I’ve heard second hand of some people who’ve died, but I have no way of knowing whether they were already seriously ill or old. And we’re a damn old population folks.

  153. @ogunsiron

    It’s unfair to compare the number of deaths after various measures have been taken with the number of death under “no mitigation at all” conditions.

    …It’s to keep the elephants away…

  154. @Polymath

    Tell me the NAME of an actual person who literally predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US

    K:
    2.2 million would have died ‘if we did nothing’: Trump

  155. FPD72 says:
    @Redneck farmer

    The Secret? SWEDES AIN’T NEW YORKERS.

    FIFY

  156. utu says:
    @qwop

    “Furthermore, for there to be herd immunity, there has to be immunity. “ – No. It means that R0<1 so no outbreak is possible beyond few local cases. If everybody wears a mask R0<1 will be at lower threshold than when people are not protected.

  157. @Dennis Dale

    How is Covid different?

    It’s not: policies aimed at ameliorating it should be subject to a strict cost-benefit analysis undertaken by dispassionate people.

    We tolerate a non-zero road toll – which includes deaths of bystander pedestrians, cyclists etc – because a policy to drive the road toll to zero would entail economic costs that would dwarf the benefits. For roughly 20% of traffic deaths, the victim is not a driver or passenger.

    Because [covid19] isn’t acquired in the messy process of society-building. It isn’t a byproduct of necessary activity. It’s a byproduct of just living.

    It’s overwhelmingly a byproduct of living to a your life expectancy at birth (and past your birth-cohort HALE and HALE65[1]). For those under 70, it’s a byproduct of having a range of chronic illnesses that are partly the result of poor lifestyle choices (cardiovascular disease; type II diabetes) or bad luck (type I diabetes, chronic kidney disease).

    [1] HALE and HALE65: health-adjusted life expectancy; health-adjusted life expectancy at age 65.

    For example: in Australia, life expectancy at birth is currently ~80 years (80 for men, 84 for women), whereas HALE is 71 for males and 74 for females.

    A person who is currently 65 is expected to live a further 20 years, with ~15 of those years being in full health.

    That seems counter-intuitive (that the average age at death is higher for 65 year olds than newborns), but people who live to 65 have outlasted a bunch of people.

    Life expectancy at birth in 1955 was ~68, but that’s biased downward because the infant mortality rate was 10× higher in 1955 than it is now.

    HALE65 is unconditional on health status at age 65. If you’re in a nursing home at the age of 70, your life expectancy (at the median) is 6 months and the mode is about 9 months. covid19 changes that by a few months maybe.

  158. @Anonymous

    So you’re saying that destroying an economy, putting tens of millions of people out of work, killing tens of thousands of people due to suicide, getting tens of thousands of children abused, damaging the lives of millions of people and reducing the number of births by tens of thousands (maybe more) is worth it?

    I understand what I’m asking of older people. Tens of thousands of them will die earlier than they would have. I accept that. I have a father. I have a mother. Both of them will not do well with Covid. I get what I’m asking of them – and I love them. They get it as well – and are on my side.

    Everyone around here just glosses over the damage this shut down is doing.

    Tell me that you’re willing to:

    Kill tens of thousands of people due to suicide

    Allow tens of thousands of children to be abused – abuse that will stick with them the rest of their lives

    Set back millions of young people’s lives for years

    See tens of thousands of babies not born due to economic uncertainty

    All so that we can maybe – maybe – allow 50,000 to 100,000 people live an extra 2 to 10 years.

    Don’t be coy and use silly phrases like “cost free.” Admit what you’re asking and admit that there’s no way to know what you’re gaining. Outside of NYC, have any hospitals been overwhelmed. The US isn’t Europe or NYC. We don’t live in apartment buildings. We don’t take the subway.

    How bad is California, Steve? That’s right. Nothing is happening.

    Show me where people just taking some precautions rather than shutting things down has caused mayhem. You have NYC, Italy and Spain. Would you seriously say that 95% of America are like them. No, it’s ridiculous.

    Call off the shut down! The cure is far, far worse than the disease. As to the general population, they’ve been conditioned by the media to think that this is the Black Plague, so now we’ve truly screwed the economy and the damage that will do to millions of people.

    That’s fine. The media are stupid whores. But I expected more out of the people around here, and, frankly, I expected a lot more out of Steve.

  159. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @TomSchmidt

    A better rejoinder to what I wrote: “we live in a society”.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=we+live+in+a+society

    Not “horse and buggy suited us just fine”.

    Now that you mention it, they had a functioning society before horse-drawn carriages and their attendant fatalities and disease-carrying horseshit.

    So I guess shouldn’t have written “a” functioning society, as in “any”, but the one we’ve chosen. But there’s an interesting question. Have we chose it? I not, who has? If no one, what gives?

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  160. HA says:
    @Polynikes

    “I simply responded to Sailer’s assertion that the IHME model has been good at predicting hospitalization data.”

    That seems fair — I will concede that point.

    “Sailer then tried to pass that off as the model being wrong because we went into lockdown.”

    And, given the case of Sweden that I keep harping on, that may well be what happened, though I’ll cop to not realizing your reply was referring to an upstream post. To continue that argument, the fact that the IHME may well have used earlier and out-of-date lockdown measures and also hospital admission policies (i.e. those that were in place before things went into full crisis mode and doctors/nurses started getting overwhelmed) may indeed be the exact reason why the beds didn’t get used — and why Ron Unz’s predictions of NYC hospital usage was also an overshoot as he himself admitted. As (allegedly) happened in the case of Sweden, it may simply be the case that doctors who were worried about overloading the system became more and more willing to simply send patients back to nursing homes to die (esp. given that Cuomo directives made that easier) thereby allowing them to infect people back at the nursing home.

    None of that means the disease was any less deadly. Nor does it necessarily mean the hospital system wasn’t overloaded. It just means that you need to look at more than just the number of beds that are used, since that’s an easy variable for the doctors to tweak.

  161. @Achmed E. Newman

    I’m not claiming to be Jesus. I’m not going for flowery prose here. I’m just trying to address what I see as an enduring moral question. If you’re in a position of influence over people who are behaving very badly, what kind of moral obligation is incumbent on you to grab them by the shoulders and say ‘this is not okay?’

    There could be an argument that says, ‘hey, if someone does something bad, it’s entirely their responsibility, they are the only ones obligated to change their behavior.’ That no one else is obligated to try to change their behavior except perhaps the police who are paid to do that. I’d like to see someone make that argument, rather than just ignoring the question.

    https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/05/11/jesse-arellano-restaurant-coronavirus-colorado-castle-rock/

    • Replies: @Manfred Arcane
  162. @Redman

    Don’t forget the quants whose models said that everything would be fine and dandy with CDOs back in 2007.

    They weren’t ‘quants’ – they were shills.

    What they did was almost entirely marketing (helping sell shit), not analysis (helping informed capital-allocation). They had a desired result, and they set things up to get that result. Then their firms bought airtime on CNBC, Bloomberg etc… extended infomercials.

    The people in their target market (mostly bond managers) faced a dilemma:
    ⓐ refuse to buy dreck and risk underperforming (and get sacked); or
    ⓑ hold their nose and load up on ‘AA’ CDOs knowing that they were dreck… but also knowing that if the dreck blew up they would blow up for all bond managers.

    Actual quants had been sounding the alarm for years – including pinpointing the exact problem (the assumption of low correlation between individual subprime mortgages).

    Here’s one guy (me) in August 2004 – I’ve added some bold to highlight that that the precise cause was identified. Note that it’s different to Burry’s initial guess that the problem would be driven by teaser-rate resets: my analysis didn’t rely on a specific catalyst (and it wasn’t teaser rate resets that caused the GFC).

    Usually the vendor-finance loan book is periodically “packaged” as “Collateralised Debt Obligations” (CDOs) and issued as a bond-like instrument; in order to have these “bonds” rated highly, vendors can purchase “default insurance”. So you can have a segment of a risky loan book coupled with some default insurance, and thanks to an AA rating, get top prices for them (and of course this counts as “earnings”. This is particularly popular for US banks (and GSE’s like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) for their mortgage books.

    The resulting bond includes an instrument (notionally) which shifts default risk to the insurer; insurers are happy because they get to collect all that lovely premium.

    Where it comes undone, is the assumption of independence of default risk across the entire CDO – that is, the default insurance premium is calculated as if the risk of default of one loan within the CDO is independent of the risk of any other loan within the batch.

    Think for one second about that: in a world where mortgages are increasingly being extended to less and less creditworthy individuals (have you seen the commercials on TV lately?), the “correlation” between defaulters is likely to be much higher than zero. Things that make one sub-prime borrower default are highly likely to make other sub-prime borrowers do likewise: rising uneployment or slower real wage growth are felt overwhelmingly at the lower end of the creditworthiness spectrum.

    Folks who run banks don’t care a damn about anything that happens to their book, so long as it happens after they leave. The people who take their place can use the previous incumbent as the fall guy, or initiate an “inquiry” which exonerates everybody… behaviour typical of bureaucracies.

    .

    In the same sense, Ferguson is not a ‘quant’. He’s a shill who sells fear, which increases his funding. And the results of his bullshit are an order of magnitude worse.

    #NoTrueQuantsman

    • Thanks: kaganovitch
  163. HA says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    “HA – It reduced the US deaths from 116,000 (Asian flu 58) to 100,000 (HK flu 68), so not a massive reduction (CDC figures).”

    I think that’s based on the assumption that the Asian flu and the Hong Kong had roughly similar lethality. If so, then I take your point. However, if it were the case the Hong Kong flu was much deadlier, then without the antibodies from the earlier flu, it could have taken out much more than just summing up the numbers from both episodes.

    Consider the relatively mild cowpox disease, which produces antibodies that are able to prevent smallpox, a much, much deadlier disease.

  164. DPG says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Yeah, I’ve had a growing feeling that this overwrought lockdown will end up being one last F You from the boomers.

    The fatality rate for healthy people under 60 is minuscule, and it will only get better as we figure out the right cocktail of drugs and vitamins. Plus what I’ve read suggests ventilation was doing more harm than good for most people. The fatality rate should continue to decline as the medical community sorts themselves out.

    We could send every healthy person under 55 back to work and tell them to keep washing their hands regularly and wear masks in public. People over 55, especially with comorbidities, would need to find an accommodation to work with social distance or go into early retirement.

    Take all the money saved on unemployment and use it for testing and quarantining for long term care workers. Triple their pay and give them a hotel to live in quarantine for three weeks at a time if you have to. Still cheaper than these exorbitant stimulus bills.

    Under this style, we protect the most vulnerable groups (nursing homes), the healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed (lower proportion of severe cases), and we get some semblance of our economy back while we slowly build herd immunity. Back of the napkin: 50% of Americans infected with a .1% fatality rate for healthy adults = 165mm * .001 = 165k deaths. We’re already halfway to that death total despite sending ourselves into an economic depression.

    Who loses under this plan? Boomers. 65 year olds still holding on to executive positions would have to choose between risking the virus to go into the office or trying to protect their fiefdom from behind a keyboard (that they type on with only their index fingers). Younger men would be getting things done in person (and having fun when the workday is over).

  165. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Lars Porsena

    What you cited was that 86% were “mild” or less, which serves the point I was making with it just fine.

    The terminology was “mild or uncomplicated,” not “mild or less.” (And it was 81%, not 86%). If we go back to the original study, the words “mild” and “uncomplicated” are used interchangeably for the first of three categories:

    Mild disease: non-pneumonia and mild pneumonia; this occurred in 81% of cases.

    Severe disease: dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥ 30/min, blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) ≤ 93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio or P/F [the ratio between the blood pressure of the oxygen (partial pressure of oxygen, PaO2) and the percentage of oxygen supplied (fraction of inspired oxygen, FiO2)] 50% within 24 to 48 hours; this occurred in 14% of cases.

    Critical disease: respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) or failure (MOF); this occurred in 5% of cases.

    To leave no room for doubt, let me quote the definition of the first category:

    Uncomplicated (mild) Illness

    These patients usually present with symptoms of an upper respiratory tract viral infection, including mild fever, cough (dry), sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, headache, muscle pain, or malaise. Signs and symptoms of a more serious disease, such as dyspnea, are not present. Compared to previous HCoV infections, non-respiratory symptoms such as diarrhea are challenging to find.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

    There is normally an asymptomatic period after the initial penetration of a host, but very few people remain asymptomatic during the entire time of infection.

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  166. @peterike

    He’s a bureaucrat through and through. Deep state calumny is always a possibility though. As a DC denizen, it is hard to not to notice the following things:

    1/ Trump letting the governors make statewide calls was a wise call. Let them deal with the large metro mayors/county executives.
    2/> 50% of Fairfax county COVID cases are Hispanic.
    3/ Nursing home deaths make up anywhere from 40% < x < 60% of ALL COVID deaths from NY, NJ and PA.

    My conclusion: The average person non-nursing home, non-multi family dweller has little to fear from the COVID, the numbers themselves are useless w/o the context of nursing home patients (h/t: @kerpen) who are making up the plurality of the people dying. The longer we go, the more this appears to be root to your claim of Trump removal attempt #3. Enough of the fear mongering. Accelerate the openings.

  167. @Steve Sailer

    Yep – me, in these very pages, over a month ago (April 6).

    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/testing-testing/#comment-3821047

    It was very much a ‘barely more than a modified BOTE‘, but it gives an approximate guess at how many suicides would yield the same loss of QALY as all the Italian covd19 deaths up to March 31st.

    Given what we now know about nursing home residents (seems that about half of them die within 6 months; almost ⅔ die within a year), the assumption that the over-70s had an average of 6 ‘good’ months was a bad one… my initial guess (ZERO) is better.

    Likewise, giving 60-69 year olds the full 10 (the Eurozone HALE65) is too generous given that HALE65 is ‘agnostic’ about the health status of the Italian covid19 fatalities in that age cohort. (In fairness to self, I did make that clear).

  168. leterip says:

    Here is the CDC report on the Skagit Choir Practice.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm?s_cid=mm6919e6_w#T1_down

    Much the same with what we have heard.

    There was one symptomatic person at the March 10th practice.
    Attack rate was 87% – wow!
    Medium age was 69
    84% women attendees and 85% of sick were women
    3 Hospitalized /2 died – all 3 had at least 2 underlying conditions.
    Over half became symptomatic with 3 days of the practice – seems very quick to me. So I wonder if there was carryover from week earlier practice.

    I live very near to this event. It is partly rural, partly bedroom/retirement community for Seattle. Mostly white and hispanic white. But hispanics would be unlikely to participate in this choir. I would say more healthy than US on average.

    Seems like singing/yelling/shouting indoors is definitely not a good idea.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  169. ic1000 says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    > Do you know of any papers that provide information about the antibodies for COVID-19 and whether or not they are different from antibodies for other Corona viruses we get?

    The spike protein is the most immunoreactive coronavirus protein. The primary amino acid sequence of SARS-CoV-2 is quite different from the sequences of the four circulating strains (229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1).

    Here is an early-May preprint from MedRxiv ,Validation of a commercially available SARS-CoV-2 serological Immunoassay. This Swiss group’s workup of an IgG serology test showed 100% specificity when used against 176 archived negative control sera (i.e. 0/176 gave a false positive).

    A 2010 paper by Gorse et al. showed that over 90% of a sample of 105 U.S. adults with COPD had antibodies to multiple coronavirus strains.

    Neutralizing antibodies to SARS can cross-react to some of these strains (e.g. KH Chan et al, 2005). Given the similarity of SARS-CoV-2 to SARS, the same probably holds for the emerging virus.

  170. @Bill Jones

    You had me right up till the words “and curing”.

    Why? As this site says:
    https://tbfacts.org/cure-tb/

    Can TB be completely cured?
    TB can usually be completely cured by the person with TB taking a combination of TB drugs.

    The only time that TB may not be curable is when the person has drug resistant TB. Even then the person may still be permanently cured by changing the drugs that the person is taking in order that they can have a complete cure for their TB. These different drugs are called second line drugs.

    TB is still very serious because if people don’t take their drugs correctly or they don’t take the correct drugs they may not be cured. This is why so many people still die from TB because their TB is not completely cured.

    Granted that last part is probably the challenge. But with universal vaccination for the disease, we will eventually either exterminate it by antibiotics or by the death of everyone who has it.

    Unless, that is, you meant that you prefer “the most dangerous game.” In which case hunting people with damaged lungs would be shooting fish in a barrel.

  171. @YetAnotherAnon

    See my reply to Peter Frost for links to studies in the New England Journal of Medicine showing where I got my number from.

  172. Redman says:
    @Polynikes

    South Dakota, which never shut down, seems to be doing great. As Rand Paul said, the same response to CV is not appropriate for every population.

    One could say that about practically everything in the US these days.

  173. @epebble

    Viruses aren’t alive; they need living hosts to replicate. If the virus doesn’t mutate, and it’s not able to hijack anyone to turn into a virus factory, then the virus dies out. That’s herd immunity: when the virus has a hard time finding the next person who’s going to agree to turn his lungs and respiratory system into a virus production facility. Because, eventually, the virus either kills the person making more of it, or the person’s immune system controls it and so the virus cannot replicate; eventually the virus is cleared from the body.

    TB you don’t get over, so you cannot infect your way to herd immunity unless it’s cured in everyone who has it. You’d have to kill it entirely (hard to do since the bacteria also affect cattle) by curing everyone who has it with antibiotics and by inoculating everyone else with the vaccine against it. Then once you had everyone inoculated, you can cure everyone who is infected, gradually killing off the bacterium by eliminating it in the lungs of everyone who has it. Hard, but doable.

    The issue is: does the virus mutate quickly enough that it can stay ahead of the immune system, like a Rhinovirus that causes a cold does? You’re immune to last year’s cold virus, but not this year’s version of the same. If COVID mutates and if immunity acquired against one version of the virus does not protect you against another version, then there’s no herd immunity, and a vaccine is just lipstick on a pig.

    For your and my sake, then, let’s hope that herd immunity is obtainable.

    Bacteria are interesting. When syphilis first appeared in Europe, it was a VERY severe strain, causing not just the problems in the reproductive tract but also disfiguring faces, making it obvious that the patient was syphilitic. This obviousness led to people infected with the face-marring strain being unable to obtain sexual partners so that the version of syphilis that was non-obvious outcompeted the severe strain. Dangerous Liaisons has a plot point of the female lead scandalizing people by going to the opera as an open syphilitic.

    • Thanks: epebble
    • Replies: @epebble
    , @Achilles Wannabe
  174. Redman says:
    @Lot

    Have you ever been on a train in Denmark? I have. It’s the definition of social distancing.

    They’re not like you or I. That’s not a criticism, just an observation.

    • Replies: @Lot
  175. res says:
    @Erik Sieven

    Thanks for following up on that in a thoughtful fashion.

    I thought I had read somewhere the IFR for influenza is much less dependent on age than it is the case with COVID-19

    I have read that as well, but even if it is true (the evidence I see indicates otherwise, see below), that does not mean the COVID-19 IFR would necessarily be lower than the influenza IFR at younger ages given that COVID-19 starts at a higher fatality rate.

    In this comment I discuss both the absolute levels of fatality rates and the slope with age (the fatality rates are roughly exponential with age, linear on a semi-log plot, so it is easiest to talk about doubling rate, i.e. the number of years older corresponding to a doubling of risk).
    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/critical-care-of-fatness/#comment-3854376

    This plot is not IFR. It is population fatality rate. But the plot does give an idea of the flu fatality rate behavior with age (doubling with about each 5.33 years older). Also notice how low the absolute fatality rate is at younger ages. In the age 50-55 bucket the fatality rate was less than 1 in 100,000. As a rough guess multiply that by 10 (assume a 10% infection rate for the population) giving a 1 in 10,000 IFR (0.01%) then compare that to COVID-19 IFRs at even younger ages.

  176. @Polynikes

    Excellent point

    Same here in NYC…they predicted a need for over 150,000 hospital beds and 30,000 ventilators. Yet the total number of hospitalized patients never exceeded 12,000 and the total number of patients hospitalized for CV is just 48,000 patients in NYC since the start of the panic 2 months ago. They never required the 4,000 ventilators Trump sent to NY….They never needed the Javits center beds….

    They predicted 12% would be hospitalized , yet only 2% of COVID patients have been hospitalized in New York. They were actually closer to predicting the number of people who would contract the virus, most estimates had predicted 1 million infected by June in NYC , yet 2 million already have recovered from Coronavirus and have the antibodies. Everyone now concedes the death rate is under 1%, but few admit the hospitalization rate is under 3%

  177. @Dennis Dale

    Yeah, apologies for the hyperbolic response. One thing that will become clear out of this overkill lockdown: a lot of things we used to do we will no longer do. Just as sending a man to the moon was the worst sort of thing we could have done (if they can send a man to the moon, why can’t they cure the common cold? And a million other c0mplaints), so will shutting down the society to deal with a virus that’s going to wind up killing, maybe, three years’ worth of car accidents. Since now the argument will be: why can’t we shut down society to stop next year’s flu season? Or any number of other forms of preventable deaths.

    But also: why, again, do we need to drive two hours a day to sit in a cube and work on a PC that we could do, maybe, from home?

    That we continue to tolerate 40,000 killed every year on our roads is an ongoing scandal. We would not tolerate that in train or plane travel. As to who has chosen this, well, let’s blame Henry Ford (who a survey of college students in the 1920s ranked number 3 as the most important human who over lived, after Washington [I think] and Jesus Christ [that latter is a shocker, eh?]), but there were a lot of people who made a lot of money turning land into roadways, and farmland into housing (the richest crop a field can grow/is a stand of houses, row on row), and getting someone else to pay to build the roads that made their developments profitable. Visit Chuck Marohn’s Strong Towns and maybe read this article for a glimpse:
    https://www.strongtowns.org/the-growth-ponzi-scheme

    If you want more, The Power Broker by Robert Caro is a (slanted but) fascinating view of a Master road builder.

  178. @Peter Frost

    There is normally an asymptomatic period after the initial penetration of a host,

    Sure.

    but very few people remain asymptomatic during the entire time of infection.

    Do you know of any publicly available data that shows that for COVID? Or even generally? Short of that I do not really believe it. People get infected with all sorts of things every single day, and do not usually suffer any symptoms for most of them because the immune system suppresses the growth of and/or destroys the pathogen before it reaches a threshold that causes symptoms (from the pathogen, or from resorting to other auto-immune measures like fever and swelling).

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
  179. Jmaie says:

    If the Swedes have figured out how to have a higher proportion of their metropolis infected than in New York City and without New York City level deaths, they really ought to share their secret.

    Covid-19 is indeed a bio-weapon but targeted against blacks and browns who are over represented amongst victims of the disease. Stockholm is 25% immigrant stock, NYC is 2/3 POC. When adjusted the white death rates are similar.

    There’s no secret they can share – it’s intentional but impolite.

  180. @Redman

    Those guys aren’t forgotten on this blog, Redman. I think it was a different story though. They probably knew that what couldn’t go on, wouldn’t go on, but they were making money, so who cared? I think the Global Climate Disruption(TM) expert modelers with their great success (sarc) and the Corona Computationalists really believe the BS they are selling to the public. Scaring the crap out people kind of turns them on, too. All they need to do now is figure out how to monetize the hell out of it.

    Yeah, they’ve got this. Haha!

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  181. Redman says:
    @Steve Sailer

    True. But I was in downtown NY at the courts when CV broke out. I was surprised that the Chinese and Vietnamese restaurants (which are the main places to eat there) were all empty. But I have a high risk threshold.

    DeBlasio didn’t have to push the woke position of overplaying the “don’t fear the virus that’s not really dangerous” card. He could have just shut up. But he didn’t. He put himself out there.

    As a lifelong New Yorker, I don’t blame him for (1) not shutting down the subways, or (2) arguing for keeping the schools open. He didn’t have enough information to know.

    But that’s the same reason he shouldn’t have promoted going to Chinese restaurants. He advocated for taking the risk.

  182. Polynikes says:
    @Polymath

    I mean…I’m pretty sure Bill H is referring to the now quite infamous Imperial UK model by (the now disgraced) Prof. Furgeson. https://reason.com/2020/03/31/2-2-million-american-deaths-from-covid-19/

    It’s mostly famous because it was used in one of the charts presented by Brix and Fauci in one of the early March briefings where the White House urged stricter controls on the population to prevent such a scenario.

  183. @Peter Frost

    “mild or uncomplicated illness” doesn’t mean “no symptoms.”
    “severe disease” doesn’t mean “many of them have mild symptoms”

    You left out an important “doesn’t mean” from your list – which is really odd and kinda makes your whole schtick smell fishy.

    people with COVID-19” doesn’t mean “all people infected with SARS-nCoV-2“.

    Coz let’s be as clear as we can: between 50% and 60% of people infected who test positive for SARS-nCoV-2 are asymptomatic.

    Not oligosymptomatic; not paucisymptomatic; not presymptomatic.

    Why did you cite a WHO document from March 13? Could you seriously not find anything more recent, or did you simply not try?

    Why not WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report –73 from April 2? That SitRep makes clear what we all know – that there’s such a thing as genuinely asymptomatic infected, where the infection can be passed from an infected individual whose disease runs its course without ever being noticed. Such people do not turn up at hospitals.

    It’s true that there are plenty of people who get tested outside hospitals who are initially asymp (at the point in time they’re tested) who then become symps.

    Those are presymps, and nobody disagrees that they exist; everybody who can read, knows that peak infectiousness happens in the 2-4 days before the infected get symptoms (if they ever do).

    One NEJM study – Arons et al – reports on people in a nursing facility, where there were 27 asymps out of 48 positive tests. 24 of those 27 developed symptoms (median time from test to symptoms: 4 days) so they were actually presymps… however the other 3 people did not develop symptoms at all.

    On the flipside (in a younger population) a JAMA research letter – Baggett et al – tested ~400-odd residents in a Boston homeless shelter (mean age 51). 147 (36%) tested positive. ~88% of the people who returned positive PCR tests were (and remained) asymptomatic.

    (Note: I’m deliberately making no reference to antibody tests, which give very high asymp percentages. That’s because antibody tests seem to be abysmally inaccurate… typical of what happens when money-hungry Pharma-charlatans encourage bureaucrats to abandon validation standards).

  184. Anon[403] • Disclaimer says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    Nope. He comes across as a self-involved boomer.

    The Left wants this lockdown bad. They know it will end Trump and don’t give two figs about those whom they will destroy.

  185. @leterip

    This virus really puts a dent in communal fun. That’s sad.

  186. @res

    For comparison, Wuhan Metro is 211 miles long with 1222.55 million riders in 2019 and the New York City Subway is 236.2 miles long with 1697.8 million riders in 2019.

    Peking and Shanghai have more than double the ridership of the NYC MTA, and Canton comes close to double. Seoul, Tokyo, Moscow, Shenzhen and Hong Kong also surpass the MTA by quite a margin. Tokyo and Seoul have multiple systems. (As does NYC.)

    Wuhan is a distant #7 in China, and #17 in the world. NYC is #9.

    Transit ridership may be a factor in contagion, but it doesn’t appear that the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is particularly robust this time around.

    • Replies: @res
  187. Mr. Anon says:
    @HA

    What did you intend to say then? Why not just come out and say what you mean instead of hiding behind a cloud of snark?

    • Replies: @HA
  188. Mr. Anon says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    Then they will try to spin history along the lines of: “Things would have been much worse,” “We did the best with the information we had, “We had to err on the side of safety,” “at least fewer people died of traffic accidents,” “I was just relying on what others were telling me,” blah blah blah.

    It became necessary to destroy the country to save it.

    • LOL: Federalist
    • Replies: @Marshall Lentini
  189. Mr. Anon says:
    @Peter Frost

    “mild or uncomplicated illness” doesn’t mean “no symptoms.”
    “severe disease” doesn’t mean “many of them have mild symptoms”

    and “infected with coronavirus” doesn’t mean “has COVID-19”.

  190. epebble says:
    @TomSchmidt

    That was good explanation. I have a question though: besides being living or dead, can’t the virus also remain in latent state and activate when it finds a susceptible host? There is a lot of talk of aggressive infection rate due to asymptomatic carriers. Is it possible that the virus can remain dormant for a long time in a person but infect another person with lower immunity. That way, a younger person can unknowingly pass it on to a older or sick person.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  191. anon[196] • Disclaimer says:

    Hey Steve, how about you run down to Marina del Rey or Venice and get an iCare test? Botox clinic, floatation tank farm, etc. for sure have to be using the best tests from somewhere or other. Gotta give you confidence! You don’t even have to get out of the car in Venice!

    https://news.yahoo.com/botox-clinics-wellness-spas-antibody-120053031.html

  192. @dearieme

    Once back on home soil, he is allowed to tell the truth. : )

  193. Redman says:
    @Prester John

    I get what your saying. But isn’t all fear “of the unknown”? If it was known it would be suffering.

  194. Redman says:
    @Anonymous

    Better to be down under too.

  195. moshe says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Is that expression a joke or a Chicago reference?

  196. Mr Mox says:
    @Steve Sailer

    Are there historical examples of this?

    Not that I’m aware of.

    One thing I haven’t seen discussed (but could easily have missed) is how many will actually be infected in a “worst” worst case scenario. In “Diamond Princess” the number was 20%, and that’s the highest percentage I’m aware of.

    A couple of hundred people – a few of them infected with CV19 – stuffed into a cramped aluminum test tube on a 20 hour flight halfway round the world should produce some interesting numbers. Maybe 20% is about as high as it gets (the rest already having immunity from some strain of flu or whatever) Herd immunity numbers would suddenly look much more manageable.

  197. Anon[340] • Disclaimer says:

    One of the reasons why I am advocating ‘just let it happen’ for certain minority groups is because Covid-suppression by contract tracing won’t work for them. A ghetto black is either going to be a criminal, be related to criminals, or know criminals–with active warrants. People like this will never let you trace their contacts. You want to walk up to a drug house, go through ring of pitbulls and fencing, and ask the black guy with the gun about all the contacts he has had in the last couple weeks? Not going to happen. He’ll never tell you, and the questioners would be too scared to try.

    As for Hispanics, they’re either illegals, related to illegals, or know illegals. They’re not going to let you trace their contacts for fear of being deported.

    A lot of those dead-on-arrivals that ambulance men are reporting from New York, which shrieky SJW media are saying are ‘too scared to go to the hospital’ are coming from the ghetto and the barrio. In other words, those dead people were ones who had a genuine reason to hide out from the authorities. What those shrieky New York news outlets aren’t telling you is that these DOAs wouldn’t have been going to the hospital in the first place.

    Because this country is plagued by the presence of these two rotten minority groups, contact tracing won’t work. This is why we will inevitably have to let them develop herd immunity.

    • Agree: jim jones
  198. moshe says:
    @jimmyriddle

    Of course obesity doesn’t kill the day you overeat. I obviously am referring to future deaths caused by the obesity gained by most people iver these past two months.

    P.S. Please don’t tell me wbout how you and your friends lost weight thanks to homecooked meals instead of the usual restaurant fare. It doesn’t take a scientist to guess with 80% confidence that most people gained weight by staying at home with nothing to do.

    • Replies: @TiS
    , @TomSchmidt
  199. HA says:
    @Prester John

    “The level of media coverage in both cases ? Next to zilch!”

    That’s a very valid data point. But there’s also presumably a reason why an organization like the CDC were established and tasked with coming up with an approach to epidemics that is more than “next to zilch”. America was hardly alone in doing that — that was done not only throughout the West but even in places like Russia and China that might be expected to regard their citizens as more expendable. And the coming of SARS and MERS and the Sarin gas attack (and the realization that before long, a bioterrorist could handily take millions of people out with a designer disease) only seems to have accelerated that trend.

    That’s not to say that every move the epidemiologists make is defensible, or isn’t a gross overreach, or that we need to pay more attention to the costs of lockdowns, but clearly the notion that people thought it was OK to let hundreds of thousands of people drop dead while doing next to nothing is, at the very least, not the full story.

    [MORE]

    Besides, those earlier years were hardly the good old days. Back then, we also thought nothing of drafting any available teenage boy and shipping him off to Vietnam or Korea (though by the late 60’s, resistance was clearly forming). Is that also something we also need to be more cavalier about?

    The Chechens have locked down their country. Brazilian drug lords have locked down their favelas. I suspect people like that know a thing or two about living with fear. Why is their “hysteria” over not wanting their elders to die a miserable death choking like a waterboarded prisoner any more irrational than the hysteria of the corona-truthers who are wetting their diapers over the economy and of not being able to visit a gym for a few months? I’m pretty sure the very same ancestors who were stoic about epidemics and plagues were also pretty stoic about economic downturns, and that those who survived the London blitz or the firebombing of Dresden would not look kindly on the hollow little men who think they now understand how Anne Frank must have felt. Now THAT is some hysteria.

  200. Why do we call this Bug COVID 19 when we could at least just as accurately call it SARS 2? Given its symptoms which at their extreme are killing a lot of people, what could be a better way to describe this Bug than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 ? Calling it COVID 19 just associates it with bunch of relatively harmless flues; this association may be epidemiologically correct but is existentially deceptive. This Bug can be a mean mother. COVID 19 seems innocuous. SARS2 or Sever Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 seems more threatening – scary actually from my point of view.

    Ok, I have been to the epidemiological sites. They say SARS 2 is the cause and COVID 19 the disease. Naturally it is the disease that is foremost on our minds. But when the epidemiologists define SARS and COVID 19, they seem like the same thing. Epidemiologists seem like they are making a distinction without a difference. Here is a distinction WITH a difference: the cause is a Bug created in China; the disease is SARS2 – Severe Aute Respiratory Syndrome 2. Is there something about what I just said that somebody does not want us to think about? Is scientific professional epidemiology really socially constructing?

  201. @TomSchmidt

    There is a virologist who I think is arguing that there is not going to be any herd immunity – not because the lockdown is preventing it but because of the nature of the Bug itself. Paul Craig Roberts posted an essay by this virologist on Unz just last week.

  202. Lot says:
    @Redman

    “ Have you ever been on a train in Denmark?”

    I have! So long ago I don’t remember it well.

  203. @Anon

    Yep… and Sailer is dutifully trying to shore up the last tattered remnants of the official narrative. He got taken in by the imaginary scary numbers early on and seems psychologically incapable of admitting what is by now an overwhelmingly obvious error.

  204. @DPG

    “this overwrought lockdown will end up being one last F You from the boomers.”

    Oh that is rich. And I am a boomer.

  205. @Achmed E. Newman

    “All they need to do now is figure out how to monetize the hell out of it.”

    Cheap chloroquine/zinc/AZ bad, expensive Remdesivir good. I’m already seeing puff-pieces for it in the Daily Mail.

  206. Peter Shaw says: • Website
    @jimbo

    Greg Cochran has lost a lot of credibility on this issue. I pointed out weeks ago Sweden looks like its reached herd immunity. He then got abusive and is now deleting comments pointing out the flaws in his reasoning.

    And the deaths keep falling.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  207. @Kratoklastes

    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-05-12/thousands-of-hospital-staff-carrying-covid-19-without-realising-they-re-infected-says-cambridge-study/

    The Cambridge team pro-actively swabbed and tested over 1200 NHS staff at Addenbrooke’s Hospital across April.

    Of the more than 1000 staff members reporting fit for duty during the study period, 3% tested positive for the Covid-19 virus. On closer questioning, about half of them admitted to vague symptoms that they had dismissed as inconsequential, and a quarter confirmed remaining symptom-free throughout.

    3% is bad in that it shows all hospital staff need constant monitoring (or they’ll infect people), but it’s a pretty small number. If we knew how many Addenbrookes staff were off sick with CV19 we’d have a handle on total infection rates in one (wealthy) area.

  208. TiS says:
    @qwop

    It signals leftiness/middle class aspirations/feminism. Has nothing to do with traditional naming conventions at all as those have been stone dead for nearly 200 years.

    Further proof of non-traditionalness is that those names *never* happen with boys, but only girls. Ie change from Gustavsson to Kerstinsdotter in case of girl happens. Change from Andersson to Fredriksson in case of boy never happens.

    The sort of people with those names are women with few to no children with ugly hair trying their best to replace swedes with Afghans. They are the opposite of nationalists.

    • Replies: @qwop
  209. TiS says:
    @moshe

    Since excercise has close to no impact on obesity I would certainly be willing to bet that lockdown had no impact at all on weight of people.

    Maybe a small loss due to less exposure to very poor food choices like candy and fast food. But just like the effect of diets those losses should be quickly wiped out after a year or two.

    • Replies: @moshe
    , @Chrisnonymous
  210. @Peter Shaw

    Gregory Cochran say again and again: “I could be wrong” in his podcasts.

    (He might not want to hear it from somebody else. Not now, that his last hope is for terribly bad autumn and winter – the Tsunami of the Second Wave (he’d need a Tsunami now, a good old CO-19 Typhoon wouldn’t do).

  211. @qwop

    Because if they do not develop a cough, they are not as effective in spreading the virus particles as aerosols.

    Exactly. Plus, they are shorter than adults, and therefore their breath aerosols and speech droplets will hit adults at the waist or legs level. If they speak directly to an adult, and reasonably loud, maybe they will reach them at chest level. One can’t get infected like that, bar some hand-to-clothes followed by some hand-to-mouth incident on the part of the adult.

  212. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Lars Porsena

    Do you know of any publicly available data that shows that for COVID? Or even generally?

    The word “asymptomatic” doesn’t mean what you think it means. It means “not having symptoms that indicate a COVID-19 infection, as opposed to some other respiratory infection, like a cold or seasonal flu.”

    I can cite many studies on this point. Here is a typical one:

    In the present study, we provided epidemiological and clinical data of 24 asymptomatic COVID-19 infections identified from the screening of close contacts in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. These asymptomatic cases were mildly ill as compared to those previously reported in Wuhan, Hubei. None of the 24 cases developed severe pneumonia as of Feb 18, 2020, and only 5 cases showed typical symptoms during hospitalization. Similar to previous studies, fever, cough and fatigue were the main symptoms.

    https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4.pdf

    The proportion of asymptomatic individuals seems to range between 18% and 33%:

    Our estimated asymptomatic proportion is at 17.9% (95%CrI: 15.5–20.2%), which overlaps with a recently derived estimate of 33.3% (95% confidence interval: 8.3–58.3%) from data of Japanese citizens evacuated from Wuhan

    It should be pointed out that these percentages include people who would later develop COVID-19:

    The reported asymptomatic cases consists of both true asymptomatic infections and cases who had not yet developed symptoms at the time of data collection but became symptomatic later

    https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180/

  213. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Kratoklastes

    You left out an important “doesn’t mean” from your list – which is really odd and kinda makes your whole schtick smell fishy.
    “people with COVID-19” doesn’t mean “all people infected with SARS-nCoV-2“.
    Coz let’s be as clear as we can: between 50% and 60% of people infected who test positive for SARS-nCoV-2 are asymptomatic.

    First, please use civil language. You’re among friends here.

    Second, the word “asymptomatic” doesn’t mean what you think it means. You can be asymptomatic while having the symptoms of a common respiratory infection, like fever, cough, and fatigue.

    Third, please provide a source for your figure of 50% to 60%. It might be true, if the population is young enough and if it includes people who later develop COVID-19.

    • Replies: @res
  214. @LondonBob

    Deaths are rapidly declining so herd immunity looks like being a low number either way.

    Only true as a tautology.

    Sure we’re reaching “herd immunity” … but only “herd immunity” for the Wuhan Special’s reproduction rate based on our current, highly altered, behavior.

    There’s a lot of wishful thinking going on by people. What’s happened, the numbers we are seeing is not complicated to understand:

    A virus’s R0 (basic reproduction number–how many people the average infected person would infect in a naive population) is not some fixed property of the virus, but it’s biology interacting with human behavior. The Wuhan Special seems to be less infectious than something like measles, but more infectious than the flu. But the infections that pencils out to depends on human behavior. For instance it’s going to be higher in a Manhattan–next to people in your elevator, on the street, in a subway car–than in some sprawling Dallas suburb–automobile to suburban office park and big box stores. You can imagine a culture where people greet everyone with open mouth kisses–R0 of this for that population would be through the roof. (Akin to homosexuals and their bathhouse culture spreading AIDS.)

    Ergo “herd immunity”–which is a threshold of immunity where the naive population has been reduced so that each new infected person on average infects less than one new person–will be correspondingly higher or lower as well. Mathematically the threshold for a population is 1-1/R0.

    The numbers we are seeing simply reflect that people have changed their behavior in response to the virus–hygiene, social distancing, masks, lockdowns, etc. (some personally chosen, or economically driven and some by government diktat). And as result R0 has dropped for all populations to a greater or lesser extent. While varying widely, every nation seems to have changed behavior enough–on average (not necessarily all sub-populations as compliance varies)–to drop replication at or below 1 and is seeing their epidemic fizzle–their case and death curves rolling over.

    The curves rolling over mean “herd immunity” right? Well yeah. Except it’s only “herd immunity” for the current R0–the current behavior–of the population.

    But when people speak of “herd immunity” what they usually mean is “herd immunity” … for the way we normally behave.

    No nation is anywhere near that normal behavior “herd immunity” for the Wuhan Special. The only places that may be near it might be places, like some of these town in Northern Italy, where it burned hot, had a good run before the changes in behavior.

    ~~

    Folks here should stop the magical thinking. “Crime rates are down, yet we have all lots of people in prison” is NYT level leftist nonsense. Everyone here should be capable of arguing their position–including letting us get out of jail!–without resorting to it.

  215. @Steve Sailer

    No county fairs …. no hair cuts …. no church services …. no visiting friends …. no visiting the elderly ……. no dating. There’s nothing to do except drink.

    You try being young right about now, Mr. Sailer.

    It’s one thing to say we have to make sacrifices to stop a disease. I’m just tired of pretending that there aren’t massive trade-offs.

    You should look up Tom Wolf’s battle with the small businesses and county commissioners of his state. He claims Pennsylvania is at “war” with a virus that’s hell bent on destroying all of us. It’s the most absurd thing I’ve ever heard. He blasted as “deserters” those who wish to work for a living instead of waiting around for an unresponsive bureaucracy that may or may not give them money. The evolutionary goal of a virus is to reproduce, not wage war against us. It would be laughable if he wasn’t destroying our lives. He’s even refused to let gyms open, classifying them as “entertainment” instead of what they, are places to achieve good health.

    And then what? What’s after that for us? We have unemployment damn near 40% right now, and that’s before even more small and medium businesses collapse after the next few months.

    There is NO REASON for this lockdown to continue. Tom Wolf is merely one of the worst examples, but NONE of the advocates have any reason. They told us we had to flatten the curve; we did so, so why does this continue? Fauci’s dangerous testimony yesterday is a farce. He says we could cause more deaths by reopening …. so when do we reopen then? And at what point do we take account of all the other damage, much of it irreparable, that’s CLEARLY being done by continuing the lockdowns? When do we examine the tradeoffs?

    Small and medium businesses are disproportionately owned by white folks, and rural areas are disproportionately less affected by this virus than a few big urban areas like New York. But both small businesses and rural areas and small towns are being punished disproportionately. Why?

    • Replies: @Travis
  216. @AnotherDad

    The numbers we are seeing simply reflect that people have changed their behavior in response to the virus–hygiene, social distancing, masks, lockdowns, etc. (some personally chosen, or economically driven and some by government diktat).

    People largely changed their behavior and did “social distancing” on their own initiative just as they started wearing masks in spite of idiotic anti-mask CDC warnings in March. For example, the Italian Catholic Church suspended Masses a week before that country mandated a lockdown, and U.S. bishops acted similarly. Grocery stores and other businesses in America were also taking strong precautions a week before the lockdown began. My female relatives began making facemasks before the state governments required them, and even did so when that “expert” Fauci claimed they were harmful!

    The government-mandated lockdowns were unnecessary, asinine, and counter-productive. The lockdowns turned a bad situation into an economic disaster for the common people. Anyone who supports the lockdowns at this point is guilty of supporting a wanton power grab by the cloud people. Additionally, multiple states – recently Pennsylvania – have admitted that most of their deaths have taken place in nursing homes and the like, which sounds like a nice way of saying that quarantining the healthy didn’t do crap.

    We have never before quarantined the healthy to this degree, nor have we so selectively and disproportionately targeted independent businesses to this degree. But post-modern people are apparently unable or unwilling to talk about trade-offs.

    Above all else, in most jurisdictions the “lockdown” is disproportionately targeting businesses that aren’t owned by Globohomo. That’s why I’ve said many times it isn’t a real lockdown; it’s a selective one, with all of the selections going in favor of the elites and against the common people. Globohomo, in fact, supports the lockdowns because it is destroying, or perhaps even has destroyed, many of the local or alternative economic opportunities outside the control of the cloud people.

  217. BB753 says:
    @Citizen of a Silly Country

    These are the first older generations (silents and boomers) unwilling to die. Back when I was a kid, old people welcomed death as a release. Not necessarily from pain but from life itself which, when protracted, can become tiresome. It was the natural attitude of old people. Not fearing death makes you free and more able to enjoy what little life you have left. I blame atheism and boomerism.

    • Disagree: moshe
    • Replies: @Dennis Dale
    , @moshe
  218. Polynikes says:
    @AnotherDad

    Can you explain a place like Georgia then? Mobility has increased about 100% since they dropped their orders. Mobility is still about -25% below normal, though. They continue to see a drop in percentage of positive tests (as does most of the countries). Their death rate is falling.

    I’m not disagreeing with your theory. But how do you explain the results? I see two possibilities:

    1) the theory just doesn’t match up with this particular virus very well. This would help explain the many faulty models we’ve seen.

    2) the amount of “social distancing” needed to create the effect in your theory is considerably lower than what has been implemented. In other words, was your hands and avoid prolonged, crowded indoor areas might be enough and anything past that has very low marginal utility.

    Maybe a combination of both? Or something else. Thoughts?

  219. @ic1000

    When you say:

    The spike protein is the most immunoreactive coronavirus protein. The primary amino acid sequence of SARS-CoV-2 is quite different from the sequences of the four circulating strains (229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1).

    are you referring to the RNA for the spike protein?

    I only ask because the RNA for the spike protein is not accessible to antibodies.

    • Replies: @ic1000
  220. @ic1000

    Here is an early-May preprint from MedRxiv ,Validation of a commercially available SARS-CoV-2 serological Immunoassay. This Swiss group’s workup of an IgG serology test showed 100% specificity when used against 176 archived negative control sera (i.e. 0/176 gave a false positive).

    Thanks for that. A preliminary read suggests it deals with the issues I am interested in.

  221. @AnotherDad

    You have a point, but I think you are conflating different things. Herd immunity is not related to social behavior and disease replication but to social networks and disease life-cycle. Herd immunity is the point at which an infection dies out because uninfected individuals are protected from infection by a buffer of immune social contacts who can’t pass on the disease.

    Take HIV–it’s R0 is, as you point out, highly variable based on social behavior (and the infection could pause in its spread), but it is impossible to achieve herd immunity from HIV. For any uninfected individual in the herd, the risk of infection remains because the disease doesn’t die or create immunity in individuals.

    Or take Ebola–in order for Africa to achieve herd immunity, it would have to modernize and be decimated. Ebola can flare up and die down because it can enter relatively isolated villages where it kills relatively quickly.

    First, you have to define your herd. Factors affecting that herd’s immunity are the number of network connections, persistence of infectivity, and ability of infected to achieve immunity rather than being eliminated from the herd.

  222. utu says:
    @AnotherDad

    Good arguments but you might be wasting your time on your interlocutor. The logic of the lockdown inmates like all inmates who want to get out by any means is twisted:

    They told us that if we don’t do P then Q will happened. They forced us to do P and we do not see Q happening. So they lied to us as clearly P is not necessary.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  223. @Polynikes

    I would assume that most epidemics burn out before achieving herd immunity.

    Herd immunity means that once an infection spreads on a network, re-introducing at a new susceptible network node will not result in another spread on the network. I doubt this is usually achieved with seasonal infections–rather , they die out from changed social behaviors, weather, mutations, or other factors.

  224. utu says:

    Sweden records highest number of coronavirus deaths for three weeks as it announces plan to hire 10,000 more nursing assistants after pandemic exposed care home failures
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8315851/Sweden-records-highest-number-coronavirus-deaths-three-weeks.html

    “The 147 deaths recorded today brings Sweden’s overall coronavirus death figures up to 3,460.”

    • Replies: @Polynikes
  225. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @DPG

    Who loses under this plan? Boomers. 65 year olds still holding on to executive positions would have to choose between risking the virus to go into the office or trying to protect their fiefdom from behind a keyboard (that they type on with only their index fingers). Younger men would be getting things done in person (and having fun when the workday is over).

    This is a great point, less the silly bit about young studs getting stuff done and then getting down (coke-fueled weeknights in Manhattan have probably wrought more damage than we’ll ever know, but I digress). Steve has talked about the effect of longer lifespans leaving oldsters clinging to power (just look at the Democrats) being behind a lot of social effects now.

    New York and the other power centers are disparately impacted by the virus–but they don’t want to be disparately impacted by the response. If most of the rest of the country is opening up while they’re still shut down, people (already migrating out), business and power all flow out to the awful, detested hinterlands.

    Manhattan is that oldster you talk about, with a claw-like, veiny old hand tapping ESC over and over on a keyboard.

    • Disagree: moshe
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  226. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @BB753

    Wow. Boomers invented fear of mortality. Is there anything they can’t do?

    This “boomers” business is a shitty little dodge for people afraid to act. “What am I supposed to do? The ‘boomers’ already wrecked everything!”

    If that’s the case, why do you bother getting out of bed in the morning?

    • Agree: moshe
    • Replies: @BB753
  227. moshe says:
    @TiS

    I disagree with every asssumotion you made but you piqued my curiosity with the claim that “excercise has close to no impact on obesity” inasmuch as you wrote it in a manner that implies that you have statistical evidence for that. I consider the subject irrelevant to what we’ve discussing because I don’t think that exercuse is the issue (“eating while in shocked hibernation” is) but I care more about your general claim than about the subject at hand. What is your claim based on?

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
  228. Polynikes says:
    @utu

    They have wierd daily totals. Some days almost zero then other days up high around 150. Previous days 57, 31, and 5. It’s almost like they batch them out and the weekend totals all hit on one or two days.

    If you do a ten day rolling average for them they are still on a downward trend. It’s not real steep, though.

    They do recoveries the same too. A bunch of days with zero recoveries and then on May 4th 3000 recoveries get reported. That’s obviously not happening unless the hospitals are releasing people in a HS graduation like ceremony on the same day. The Daily Mail, FT, and other magazines have been reporting these lags in data reporting as actual metrics. Typical scare tactics. It all disappears if you use a rolling average.

  229. moshe says:
    @AnotherDad

    Instead of continuing to shif the goalposts can’t you just admit to a bunch of misfit generally antagonistic online anonymii that you were wrong and peed your pants like a little baby for nothing?

    🙂 🙂

  230. moshe says:
    @BB753

    Now THAT’S what I call a pro-death comment! Man, let me hear that a few more times and I’ll start wearing a mask myself.

    • LOL: BB753
    • Replies: @BB753
    , @BB753
  231. ic1000 says:
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    > are you referring to the RNA for the spike protein?

    No, I’m referring to the amino acid sequences of the spike proteins of the different coronavirus strains.

  232. @Alexander Turok

    First, Musk and the other lockdown-defiers are not behaving “very badly,” so your question assumes facts not in evidence. Second, you don’t have any influence over them, and neither does Steve, so your question is moot. Third, you’re still a clueless gamma troll.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
  233. res says:
    @Reg Cæsar

    Transit ridership may be a factor in contagion, but it doesn’t appear that the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is particularly robust this time around.

    Agreed. But I do think it makes the achievements of the cities you named at avoiding COVID-19 even more impressive.

    Have you looked at the airline network analysis discussed over in James Thompson’s blog? Here is my initial comment on it:
    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/sneeze-and-fly/#comment-3889367

    That looks like a much more important factor.

  234. res says:
    @Peter Frost

    Second, the word “asymptomatic” doesn’t mean what you think it means. You can be asymptomatic while having the symptoms of a common respiratory infection, like fever, cough, and fatigue.

    That is an important point. Do you have evidence that “asymptomatic” is being used consistently in that fashion? That hasn’t been the sense I am getting. For example, this article and a couple of the references I followed.
    https://www.nextavenue.org/questions-about-asymptomatic-covid-19/

    But I am having trouble finding explicit statements of what people mean when they say “asymptomatic.”

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  235. @res

    It’s definitely not being used consistently in that fashion. A lot of medical literature does not attempt to make any distinction between complete lack of symptoms and mild symptoms, I guess because it makes no difference to the lack of treatment required either way. But I have found a number of sources that distinguish between asymptomatic and presymptomatic and some sources that are more specific about what they are calling asymptomatic, that are using it to mean completely asymptomatic.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e1.htm

    Residents were assessed for stable chronic symptoms (e.g., chronic, unchanged cough) as well as typical and atypical signs and symptoms of COVID-19. Typical COVID-19 signs and symptoms include fever, cough, and shortness of breath (3); potential atypical symptoms assessed included sore throat, chills, increased confusion, rhinorrhea or nasal congestion, myalgia, dizziness, malaise, headache, nausea, and diarrhea. Residents were categorized as asymptomatic (no symptoms or only stable chronic symptoms) or symptomatic (at least one new or worsened typical or atypical symptom of COVID-19) on the day of testing or during the preceding 14 days. Residents with positive test results and were asymptomatic at time of testing were reevaluated 1 week later to ascertain whether any symptoms had developed in the interim. Those who developed new symptoms were recategorized as presymptomatic.

    One week after testing, the 13 residents who had positive test results and were asymptomatic on the date of testing were reassessed; 10 had developed symptoms and were recategorized as presymptomatic at the time of testing (Table 2). The most common signs and symptoms that developed were fever (eight residents), malaise (six), and cough (five). The mean interval from testing to symptom onset in the presymptomatic residents was 3 days. Three residents with positive test results remained asymptomatic.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025619v2

    Findings: None of the 24 asymptomatic cases presented any obvious symptoms before nucleic acid screening. Five cases (20.8%) developed symptoms (fever, cough, fatigue and etc.) during hospitalization. Twelve (50.0%) cases showed typical CT images of ground-glass chest and five (20.8%) presented stripe shadowing in the lungs. The remaining seven (29.2%) cases showed normal CT image and had no symptoms during hospitalization. These seven cases were younger (median age: 14.0 years; P = 0.012) than the rest. None of the 24 cases developed severe COVID-19 pneumonia or died.

    That Iceland study I mentioned pretty much says it is using asymptomatic to mean exactly that, asymptomatic not mild symptoms. They had no fever, no cough, no malaise, etc. However it does not make any attempt to distinguish between asymptomatic and presymptomatic.

    What I am seeing all over is very wide ranges of guesses but most sources seem to agree that a good 10-20% at a minimum are truly asymptomatic and not just presymptomatic.

    If you buy into the limited sereological antibody studies that number could be much, much, much higher. Even without such studies I have seen studies suggesting as high as 50%.

    Here is the best source I have found on the issue which links to about 15 different studies.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/

    The results are between 4% and 79%.

    Generally it seems studies done on older people produce lower numbers and studies done on younger people or children produce higher numbers of asymptomatics.

    The studies are not consistent in how they are grouping “asymptomatic”. Often is grouped with “mild, moderate or asymptomatic” and other places they more carefully imply actual lack symptoms. The former numbers are much higher (70-95% consistently). The studies are also not consistent in separating true asymptomatic from presymptomatic. A few do, the rest ignore the difference and make no distinction.

    Getting a real number will probably rely on the sereological testing, if such testing is ever accepted as valid. A few of such tests have apparently been approved by the FDA and studies are ongoing about Covid as of early April, that is what I have read. There is a lot of mistrust of the previous California (Santa Monica?) studies that said confirmed cases are only 1-in-80 cases and implies the majority are truly asymptomatic.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  236. BB753 says:
    @Dennis Dale

    “If that’s the case, why do you bother getting out of bed in the morning?”

    To watch boomers die. [sarcasm off]

    • Replies: @Dennis Dale
  237. @Manfred Arcane

    I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Musk is an iSteve reader. What we know is this:

    1. Steve has many corona-denying commenters.
    2. Some subset of corona deniers will act on these beliefs by going out and breaking the law.

    • LOL: XYZ (no Mr.)
    • Replies: @anon
    , @Mr. Anon
  238. BB753 says:
    @moshe

    Seriously, people need to reconcile themselves with the simplest facts of life. First, you’re born, become an infant, then a child, then you slowly start turning into an adult, you get a job, marry, have kids, you start ageing, and one day you find out you’ve become an old man. And then death will come looking for you, quietly and slowly, just as any other of the steps in your life.
    When did people start to welcome old age and retirement as the greatest time of their lives, with cruise travels and wining and dining and viagra-fueled sex?
    And as a result, started fearing death? That’s no way to live or die.

  239. anon[138] • Disclaimer says:
    @Alexander Turok

    Some subset of corona deniers will act on these beliefs by going out and breaking the law.

  240. Peter Frost says: • Website

    Do you have evidence that “asymptomatic” is being used consistently in that fashion?

    This may be causing confusion even among medical investigators. Just now, I was reading through the literature, and in most cases the term “asymptomatic” was defined negatively. In other words, you’re asymptomatic if you’re not symptomatic, and to be symptomatic you have to meet certain criteria.

    This is why we have “asymptomatic” individuals with malaise, sore throats, and no sense of smell. They are not considered symptomatic, especially if they have been rapidly examined among large numbers of people by a much smaller number of medical personnel.

    This may explain why we see varying estimates of the percentage of asymptomatic individuals.

  241. Dennis Dale says: • Website
    @BB753

    You sad, anonymous f—.

    What are you saving yourself for in your anonymity? Clintonian political tenability? lol

    You know, some boomers, like your esteemed host here (who could’ve sold out years ago) have been fighting a lonely, thankless battle against this shit a long time, showing their faces, under their own names. And then you roll up–with the bastards coming over the ramparts, and you still don’t have the stones to show your face and fight–even though you say it’s basically over.

    So yes, you will get up every morning to watch better people fall. There will be plenty for ghouls to relish in in the coming years.

    • Thanks: TomSchmidt
    • Replies: @BB753
  242. epebble says:

    I just saw https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/health/flu-deaths-vaccine.html (Over 80,000 Americans Died of Flu Last Winter, Highest Toll in Years), I don’t even remember this news which is only 2 years old. If we did/do not have any herd immunity for that flu (H3N2), why do we expect we will have herd immunity for Covid?

  243. @TiS

    My guess is that a small proportion will lose weight but most will gain weight. There is not much to do inside except watch TV and snack. I have cut back a lot on eating because I had to stop drinking every day, but that is an exception. My brother and his girlfriend say they are eating constantly, which is probably more the norm.

  244. @moshe

    If you’re a ctually interested instead of just picking a fight, you can google or search PubMed easilu enoufh to find out. I believe the theory behind the evidence is that exercise increases appetite so that exercise alone has little overall effect on weight. Exercise combined with control of food intake is another matter.

    By the way, I agree with you that the lockdown is likely contributing to weight gain.

    • Replies: @moshe
  245. @Lars Porsena

    Thanks.

    This is helpful in distinguishing between the various meanings of “asymptomatic.”

  246. HA says:
    @Mr. Anon

    “What did you intend to say then? “

    Overloading the system — which is a more accurate description of what we were really trying to avoid — is not the same as exceeding hospital capacity or number of ventilators.

    You can always have enough beds and enough ventilators by simply choosing to deny ever greater number of people access to them.

    To put in another way, the actual goal is to limit the number of excess deaths, regardless of whether or those dead were allowed to expire in a hospital.

    Sweden is bragging about how they never exceeded the number of ICU beds, but as my link indicated, that is only because they just didn’t even bother to treat patients that doctors would have ordinarily tried to save. I.e. they cheated. Yes, NYC and Bergamo apparently did the same, but at least they can argue they were forced into that by the circumstances.

    Same kind of thing goes for those who are claiming that the models were wrong about hospital overload. It may be that the models are not accounting for the fact that some administrator chose to tighten up the requirements of who would even be allowed to get in and who would be sent back to die in their nursing home (with Cuomo helping that sleazy ruse along by forcing the homes to take them back). By increasing the number sent home to die, you magically leave yourself with plenty of spare capacity — and leave yourself open to a bunch of corona-truthers kvetching about how badly the models predicted hospital usage — except that what you’re doing is anything but magical.

    [MORE]

    Similar games are played by leftists when it comes to assessing infant mortality and crying about how the deplorable US has a higher infant mortality than Cuba. That’s only technically true because Cuba doesn’t even bother saving difficult cases:

    Infant mortality is defined as the death of babies under the age of one year, but some of the differences between countries can be explained by a difference in how we count. Is a baby born weighing less than a pound and after only 21 weeks’ gestation actually “born?” In some countries [E.G. CUBA, I’M GUESSING], the answer is no, and those births would be counted as stillbirths. In the United States, on the other hand, despite these premature babies’ relatively low odds of survival, they would be considered born — thus counting toward the country’s infant mortality rates.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
  247. @epebble

    Some viruses do that. Herpes comes to mind: you never clear it from your system. I don’t know about Coronavirus.

  248. @utu

    Is it your contention that ending the lockdown will cause the healthcare system to collapse?

  249. @Dennis Dale

    Manhattan is already screwed. I don’t think there’s any unscrewing it, not without NY State going bankrupt and renegotiating Union contracts. THe shutdown Cuomo pushed and now loves has taught a lot of people that it’s OK to work from home, like my wife. Not that she couldn’t, but the bosses have been forced to adapt. And soon, they will like not having to pay for half their office space. Which will drive down rents. Which will drive down property values. Which will drive down property taxes. Which has blown a permanent hole in the state and city budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.

    It gets worse. The MTA has lost at least 25million in revenue per day, without offsetting expense cuts. This will blow a hole in the budget, requiring a bailout. But the state and city have no money to do so, because Cuomo. If Mitch McConnell doesn’t agree to the Democrats’ 3$trln bailout for states and cities, New York is going to face some hard budget times. If they try to raise taxes on the middle and upper classes, they’re likely to move away, blowing a bigger budget hole.

    The poor that the Democrats claim to care about? Their hero governor has killed the goose that laid the golden eggs that supported a lot of them in NY State and City.

    Hard times ahead.

    • Agree: Dennis Dale
    • Replies: @epebble
  250. Mr. Anon says:
    @HA

    We didn’t overload hospitals either, except in a few places.

    Yet, the charge that – by some accounts – Sweden refused treatment to some patients is certainly worth consideration.

    Just like – by some accounts – patients in NYC were put on vents, ignored, and left to die.

    Just like – by some accounts – people dying of other things than COVID-19 are officially counted as having died of COVID-19

    Just like – by some accounts – a lot of old people have died of neglect in their homes because of the lockdown freakout.

    Just like – by official and undoubted accounts -recovering COVID-19 patients in New York and New Jersey were discharged to nursing homes where they infected people, perhaps killing thousands.

    Your interest in – some accounts – seems rather selective.

    • Agree: moshe
    • Replies: @HA
  251. epebble says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Yes; this newfound desire for remote work can seriously disrupt real estate business, if everyone wants to work at least 6 feet away. 6 can easily become 6 thousand (or million) feet. The flatworld dreamed up by the futurists likely did not have a pandemic as the trigger.

  252. @Steve Sailer

    The duty of an ambassador is to lie for your country.

    I thought it was to make some other dumb ambassador lie for his country.

    • LOL: moshe
  253. qwop says:
    @TiS

    This is veering way off-topic, but in any case:

    Further proof of non-traditionalness is that those names *never* happen with boys, but only girls. Ie change from Gustavsson to Kerstinsdotter in case of girl happens. Change from Andersson to Fredriksson in case of boy never happens.

    Do you have any statistics to back up this notion of yours? Because I can quite easily disprove your contention that it never happens with boys: Magne Torbjörnsson killed his father Torbjörn Åkesson (a professor of chemistry), and this killing was publicized in Sweden a few years back so you can verify this yourself through Google.

    Second, your example is not of the same type as “Olofsdotter” which is of the type man’s name + genitive marker + “dotter”, but rather of the type woman’s name + genitive marker + “dotter”, which is obviously not the same since that has never been the convention anywhere (and so definitely is not “Icelandic-style naming convention” as per the question which started this discussion).

  254. moshe says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    I did a quick scan and it seemed to say that 75 minutes of vigorous activity per week wasn’t sufficient to have much if an effect on weight. But when “exercise people” – of whom I am not one – speak of keeping a healthy weight through their exercise, running, “the gym” or the like, they seem to be referring to more than 75 minutes a week!

    Now I’m TOTALLY wanting to believe that these loud and proud “I go to the gym!” fags are going to die as early as everyone else (if not earlier please god!) but I would guess that those precious few actual exercisers (as opposed to 75min/week or less people who say they exercise) are actually doing something salutary.

    Unless of course thst exercise causes all sorts of downsides like stress when they miss a session or drug use or being more likely to fight or….who knows?

    That’s why I’m curious whether the data actually flies in the face of every Uplifter’s “recommendations” to a paranoid populace.

    My own guess based on having been alive for a while is that trying to change yourself or force yourself to be different than who you are is a bad idea and liable to ricochet back at you in hitherto unknown ways. I believe that Acceptance is the main key to health and happiness. I can’t explain why or how acceptance is better than “improving yourself” but it really seems to be that way.

    But if scientific data backed this up by showing that people who start to exercise don’t end up living longer or healthier for whatever reason that would be a fun little paper to stuff up rhe high held noses if the gym fat “better than thous”.

    • Replies: @Achilles Wannabe
  255. Travis says:
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    It is clear by now that Those in power are using this pandemic as an excuse to increase their power and destroy those who oppose them. This has never been about flattening the curve or reducing deaths. Those states most effected by coronavirus have increased the number of deaths by forcing nursing homes to accept COVID 19 patients, exposing the most vulnerable to the disease. They did not quarantine the sick and made no attempt to build quarantined facilities to protect the elderly. They could have used the Javits Center as a quarantine hospital to keep the sick away from the healthy. They could have allowed doctors to prescribe HCQ instead of banning this promising drug.

    at this point the evidence is strong for HCQ working as a prophylactic to prevent COVID19 , yet it is still not being widely used outside of a hospital setting with those who already have advanced pneumonia. All evidence suggests it needs to be used at the first sign of illness to be effective. Yet these people are denied access to HCQ. Doctors are prevented from writing prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine in NY and Pharmacies are prevented from selling it to those with coronavirus.

    • Replies: @Alden
  256. BB753 says:
    @Dennis Dale

    Why can’t you understand sarcasm even when literally written between brackets after the sentence?

  257. HA says:
    @Mr. Anon

    I’m against — and willing to address — stupid policies that result in vulnerable people being killed regardless of whether they happen by boneheaded bureaucrats in Stockholm or boneheaded bureaucrats in NYC– as opposed to simply turning a blind eye to whatever suits my narrative. That’s the difference between you and me. And while I think it’s a safe bet that the suspicions I pointed out are actually much more than suspicious, I allow for the possibility that I might be missing something given the limited information that is available. That’s another big difference.

    Given your apparent inability to even allow for the possibility that such people might exist, maybe it’s better if in the future you actually follow through with your previously stated resolve to simply ignore what I say. You’d be doing both of us a favor, and I think there’s even a handy ignore-feature on this site that would make that easier for you. Just saying.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    , @Mr. Anon
  258. Mr. Anon says:
    @HA

    That’s the difference between you and me. And while I think it’s a safe bet that the suspicions I pointed out are actually much more than suspicious, I allow for the possibility that I might be missing something given the limited information that is available.

    What a load of arrogant, self-stroking horses**t. Yeah, sure – yours are all sober, measured observations. I haven’t observed anything in your posts other than inflexible nay-saying.

    You’ve fallen hook, line, and sinker for the biggest government/corporate/technocratic power-grab in our lifetime – even bigger than 911. You’re crowd are a bunch of deluded fools, as far as I’m concerned.

    I have come to discount most of what you say, but it’s still worth rebutting. Why should I let your side monopolize the discussion?

  259. Mr. Anon says:
    @Alexander Turok

    Some subset of corona deniers will act on these beliefs by going out and breaking the law.

    Violating an arbitrary diktat issued by some dictatorial clown with more hair-product than brians is not “breaking the law”, a**hole.

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane
  260. Mr. Anon says:
    @HA

    I also noticed that you had no rebuttal to anything I pointed out. Anything that runs counter to your narrative just doesn’t register.

  261. Alden says:
    @Anon

    One thing about N Europeans, German Poles Scandinavians Dutch they shake hands all the time, not just being introduced. Run into a neighbor downtown? Don’t just say hi, shake hands. Go to a meeting on a different floor? Shake hands with everybody.

    It’s all a fraud anyway. I knew, knew, not assumed that when I saw that the media enemy of Whites was blaring the covid hoax night and day.

    When the media told me to stop eating eggs because they would cause a heart attack I didn’t believe it.

    When the media told me pasta for lunch and dinner and 500 calorie apiece muffins for breakfast weren’t fattening I didn’t believe them.

    When the media told me to give the boys dolls and the girls trucks and ban toy guns I gave them all toy guns the girls dolls and the boys trucks.

    When the media told me that I and my faithful husband and every other heterosexual couple in the world would get AIDS because AIDS had nothing to do with promiscuous sodomy I didn’t believe them. I was right and the media wrong.

    When Paul Erlich told me billions would starve to death by 1985 I didn’t believe him.

    When the media told me there was a Coming Ice Age I didn’t believe them.

    When the media told me the Bosnians were the good guys and Serbs the bad guys I assumed the media lied. I didn’t even read the articles. Just assumed the media lied. I was right the media was wrong.

    When the media told me to go China town for New Year’s parade to display I’m not an anti Chinese racist I didn’t go.

    When the media told me we’re all gonna diiieee from covid hoax I didn’t believe them. I am right and the media wrong.

    330-40 million population 83,000 attributed, attributed, not certain covid hoax deaths.

    Average age of deaths, 75.

    31 % of deaths in nursing homes, not hospitals meaning they were very sick old and disabled before they got covid hoax.

    60% of attributed covid hoax deaths in 5 states, Mass Jersey Noo Yawk Pennsylvania and Michigan. Why those states? I don’t know and neither does the media.

    If you want to know the truth about anything, just look at yahoo news watch CNN MSNBC PBS NPR and just believe the opposite of what the lying media says

    • Troll: utu
  262. Anonymous[219] • Disclaimer says:

    Look, Numb-Nuts, the boomers accomplished more than your generation ever will. I assume you’re either some millennial whiner or some depressive Gen X-er also-ran, a creature from one of the weaker, lesser generations that came after the boomers. Almost everything you hypersensitive, lack-luster, foot-dragging gripers take for granted was pioneered by the boomers. Anything that has to do with computers – from the smartphone you suck on like a pacifier to the video game you masturbate to – you have to owe to the boomers. Almost every major social change you can think of – civil rights and the acceptance of minorities, women’s lib, gay lib, sexual freedom (if you’re not an incel like so many of your benighted peers and can somehow get laid) – you have to owe to the boomers. Boomers were also foot soldiers in the sphere of environmental awareness and the war against climate change. Talk about taking care of posterity! Even on a family level, you can hardly call them selfish. Millions of them worked hard to be better parents than their own parents. They paid YOU little brats plenty of attention, to a fault. They hovered over you, shielded you from getting your little feelings hurt. No wonder you’re such weak, bitter, little snowflakes! What, pray tell, will you leave for future generations – your grievances?

    • Replies: @BB753
  263. Dennis Dale says: • Website

    I’m sorry, my dumb boomer ass thinks “sarcasm off” actually means “no sarcasm”.
    Pardon me; I won’t make the mistake of taking anything you say seriously ever again.

    It isn’t as if I believe you–it’s a silly statement that one doesn’t judge as “true” or “false”, but rather a sentiment.

    And ugly, dull, stupid sentiment.

    Sarcasm off.

  264. Alden says:
    @Travis

    Probably NY state democrats want to kill off Whites who are the majority of age 60 plus voters.

    With 50 years of wage freezes price rises and laws that make it illegal to hire a White man, the the Jew liberal commies succeeded in driving down the White birth rate. They don’t want to wait another 30 years for the last 60 year old White person to die. The Jew commie liberals want us dead as soon as possible.

  265. Alden says:
    @Alexander Turok

    Might be a good idea to briefly explain what the warlords and Musk did and what law Musk broke. Musk’s a business man who owns a factory. There’s a big difference between law breaking and not observing business, tax building code, OSHA and other regulations.

  266. Denis says:
    @Anon

    286K Covid-19 deaths to date, which is basically just replacing pneumonia and flu deaths that would have happened anyway in the old and fragile population.

    And in many cases, every death possible has been counted as a Covid death.

  267. @moshe

    I am a serous exerciser. I average an hour a day aerobics, plus weights. Been doing at least that for 20 years. I have never lost a pound doing aerobics. I might manage it if I upped my miles but then I would probably drop dead. I have lost serous weight that I put on when I gave up smoking but that was thru going to the Atkins diet. Some sort of change in your diet is the way you lose weight. I say high fat low carb. Also there is no significant correlation between longevity and exercise. This is documented in a book by a cardiologist – not that I trust Doctors – called the Exercise Myth. I exercise en extremes because I enjoy extremes and because it relieves the tension I experience as a neurotic type. There may be some small benefit in longevity but people quite naturally mistake a fitness effect for good health. You can run perfect track and then drop dead in the locker room from something that has been coming on for years but not interfered with your fitness. You can do virtually nothing and be absent illness. Fat is only lethal at the far end of the distribution. Don’t wait for the exercise industry to tell you that . It is a racket just like the Medical industry

  268. BB753 says:
    @Anonymous

    “Almost every major social change you can think of – civil rights and the acceptance of minorities, women’s lib, gay lib, sexual freedom (if you’re not an incel like so many of your benighted peers and can somehow get laid) – you have to owe to the boomers. Boomers were also foot soldiers in the sphere of environmental awareness and the war against climate change. ”

    Are you serious that we ought to thank boomers for all those societal ills that you mention, namely minoritarianism, feminism, homosexualism and sexual promiscuity, which have destroyed civilization, including the climate change hoax?
    I bet we should be grateful to you also for the Great 2020 WuFlu Swindle! Thanks, Boomer!

  269. BB753 says:
    @Alexander Turok

    If your pastor friend was a Catholic or Orthodox priest instead of a Protestant minister, he could call them out during confession: even refuse them absolution if they don’t mend their ways. Which goes to show what a sham Reformation turned out to be.

  270. BB753 says:
    @moshe

    If you need help in learning how to die, here are a few tips (starting at about 06:30 minutes in) :

  271. @Mr. Anon

    It became necessary to destroy the country to save it.

    This is true for many reasons other than “coronavirus”.

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