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Is There an Inner Party?

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Accusations that U.S. Senators dumped stock after closed-door briefings on the pandemic are both revolting and reassuring that somebody in power made sensible decisions, even if just for their net worth.

There was a famous 2004 paper about the high returns Senators generate on their stock portfolios, with the implication of inside information, evidence for an intelligent Inner Party. But critics have since accused the paper of p-hacking, so who knows?

 
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  1. Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
    @James Speaks

    Don’t forget the lengths of stout rope.

    , @AnotherDad
    @James Speaks



    Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.
     
    I'm definitely a peasants and pitchforks kind of guy. (My people.)

    But in the last few years, the thought of seeing these folks riding through the streets in tumbrils for a little shortening, is kind of heartwarming.

    But ... they keep reminding me about nooses. Nooses, nooses, nooses everywhere. So hey, i say, let's not just do shortening, but stretching as well!

    Replies: @JMcG

    , @Mike Tre
    @James Speaks

    Burning at the stake might be a tad retro, but I hear it's making a comeback. Burning at the stake is the corduroy jeans of horrible, mob instigated deaths. Every couple decades it makes a brief but profound comeback.

    , @Svevlad
    @James Speaks

    I'm more of a "completely uncivilized forest militia that thinks toilet is for drinking water" like a certain southeast Asian maths teacher type of guy

    , @Just Passing Through
    @James Speaks

    Are you sure they haven't outsourced torch and pitchfork manufacturing to China?

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  2. Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    • Replies: @Daniel H
    @J.Ross

    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Only the grim reaper is going to get that old bag out.

    Replies: @anon, @Anonymous

    , @Anon
    @J.Ross

    Probably not. It's Burr and Loeffler who are most suspicious.

    https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/1240992873891483650

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Alfa158
    @J.Ross

    No Republican could defeat her in an election. Normally, with the elections system in California, she will run against another Democrat in the general election. The Inner Party would have to tell her that she should decide to retire after this term, and then they can select the next Democrat to be elected to her seat as they did when Harris replaced Boxer. Gavin Newsom probably believes he is her replacement but a straight White guy could be a problem so I wouldn’t start shopping for Washington condos if I were him. Unless Gavin also banged Willie Brown, then maybe he’s got it sewn up.

    Replies: @anonn, @Prof. Woland

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @J.Ross


    Dian[n]e Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

     

    She brandished a loaded military assault rifle before a crowd of reporters. That should have cost her her pistol license, if not much more. She still has her seat, and likely her license.

    I shed nary a tear for those states "uncompetitive" in the Electoral College. Why? Look at Di. She's been in there for close to thirty years. She and Barbara Boxer approached fifty total years together in the Senate.

    The less competitive your state is in the presidential election, the more competitive it is within the walls of the US Senate.
    , @Charon
    @J.Ross

    The Lügenpresse is conveniently leaving Feinstein out of the narrative.

    Replies: @Ragno

    , @Ian Smith
    @J.Ross

    DF will be there for life.

    Replies: @Autochthon

    , @Neoconned
    @J.Ross

    I hope but don't expect much. Anyway,

    If you or me did this we'd be about to go to federal prison....

  3. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:

    Congressmen, and their immediate employees, were allowed to insider trade with impunity until Obama apparently legislated against the practice. One obvious problem with Congressmen being allowed to insider trade was it allowed major corporations to bypass campaign contribution limits.

    That is, if I’m a the CEO of Boeing, and I meet with Congresswoman Feinstein on a golf course, and tell her during casual conversation that she would be well advised to go heavily long in Boeing stock by the end of the week, and she does so, the money she makes when the stock pops on my press release on Monday morning could be considered an extremely generous under-the-table campaign contribution. Owing to such a large “contribution,” I can later count on Feinstein to pay for my companies bailout, after I rape it, with no grease.

    While inside trading was allowed, it was impossible for participating Congresswomen to vote in the interest of their constituency. Bills have been introduced for years, to stop this practice of legitimizing congresswomen from stealing from the public Scott free, and all of them died.

    I wasn’t even aware Obama managed to get something passed against it. Bully for him.

    I think all four congressmen and women (so far) should be prosecuted to the fullest extent the law allo2ws. We need to make examples of them to bring the rest of the Congress to Jesus.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Anonymous

    It's pretty shameful that Congress allowed themselves that privilege up until 2012. Burr was one of only three Senators who voted against the STOCK act. It's probably full of loopholes. Or they will find themselves some new racket to enrich themselves from high office. I don't think we'll be seeing them getting any poorer.

    , @David Davenport
    @Anonymous

    Congressmen, and their immediate employees, were allowed to insider trade with impunity until Obama apparently legislated against the practice

    That is fiction. Legislation to stop Congressional insider trader was proposed, but never enacted.

  4. @J.Ross
    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Replies: @Daniel H, @Anon, @Alfa158, @Reg Cæsar, @Charon, @Ian Smith, @Neoconned

    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Only the grim reaper is going to get that old bag out.

    • Agree: Dutch Boy
    • Replies: @anon
    @Daniel H

    Don't sell Corona virus short, it can do wonders in term limiting. Two Congress critters are infected. When the forest fire is over, the ecosystem will look much different.

    Replies: @AnonAnon, @Anonymous

    , @Anonymous
    @Daniel H


    Dianne Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Only the grim reaper is going to get that old bag out.

     

    The Grim Reaper doesn't have that kind of power.
  5. @J.Ross
    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Replies: @Daniel H, @Anon, @Alfa158, @Reg Cæsar, @Charon, @Ian Smith, @Neoconned

    Probably not. It’s Burr and Loeffler who are most suspicious.

    https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/1240992873891483650

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Anon

    This is incorrect.

    Dianne Feinstein sold the stock Allogene, which is down by ~5% since she sold it. So she saved between $50,000 and $250,000. Which is a lot.

    However, there's a more important point. Biotech stocks have down since this crisis started, due to broader market volatility and recessionary risk. The largest biotech sector ETF (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF) has been down by roughly -16% YTD, compared to -20% YTD for the NASDAQ.

    There are 2 points to take away.

    1. The biotech sector has been hammered almost as hard as the general market, which indicates that it's fairly cyclical and dependent on the general economic cycle. Therefore, if you got inside information that the market was about to tank, you'd want to dump biotech stock almost as quickly as your non-biotech stock.

    2. Feinstein had inside information that the market was likely to tank. After getting this information, she sold $1-$5 MILLION of a biotech sector stock.

    Therefore, a plausible insider trading scenario can be made against Dianne Feinstein.

  6. Lawyers help other lawyers. Trading on insider information is a crime. Restricted information shared in the public good is technically not insider. No surprise that DNC members, like Ms. Piggy Feinstein, were both front trotters in the trough.

    PEACE 😷

  7. Preet Bhara tweeted that Congress members should not be allowed to own individual stocks. I would add women married to men in the NYSE also should not.

    This is like campaign finance reform or term limits. A great, popular, uniting, bipartisan issue that will therefor never see the light of day.

  8. What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?

    And, yes, it is revolting. All four should be investigated. Makes no difference their political party. So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience.

    • Replies: @res
    @Corvinus


    What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?
     
    If you spent as much time answering your own questions as you do asking them you might be useful.

    Here is the 2004 paper:
    Abnormal Returns from the Common Stock Investments of the U.S. Senate
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46543239_Abnormal_Returns_from_the_Common_Stock_Investments_of_the_US_Senate

    The actions of the federal government can have a profound impact on financial markets. As prominent participants in the government decision making process, U.S. Senators are likely to have knowledge of forthcoming government actions before the information becomes public. This could provide them with an informational advantage over other investors. We test for abnormal returns from the common stock investments of members of the U.S. Senate during the period 1993 1998. We document that a portfolio that mimics the purchases of U.S. Senators beats the market by 85 basis points per month, while a portfolio that mimics the sales of Senators lags the market by 12 basis points per month. The large difference in the returns of stocks bought and sold (nearly one percentage point per month) is economically large and reliably positive.
     
    As a bonus, some related papers. First, a thesis from 2011:
    Congressional Insider Trading: An Analysis of the Personal Common Stock Transactions of U.S. Senators
    https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1110&context=cmc_theses

    I have examined the common stock investments made by members of the U.S. Senate between 2006 and 2009. I find that the average stock portfolio in the Senate exhibits one and two year cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of -0.15 % and 0.43%, respectively. This suggests that members of the Senate are not trading on insider knowledge as indicated by one previous researcher who calculated a one year CAR of 25%. However, my findings are in line with another previous researcher who found a one year CAR of about -2% and concluded that Congressmen are not trading on inside information. I also examine election-year trades made by senators who lose a reelection bid. This cashing out effect amounts to a CAR of 0.43% during the first year post loss, but after two years these trades exhibit a CAR of -0.03%. The cashing out group performs no better than the group as a whole, indicating that this group did not use their informational advantage to profit during the lame duck session.
     
    And a 2019 paper:
    Trading on Private Information: Evidence from Members of Congress
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fire.12180

    I examine the stock trades of members of Congress and find that over 2004–2010 the buy‐minus‐sell portfolios of powerful Republicans have the highest abnormal returns, exceeding 35% on an annual basis under a one‐week holding period. Among powerful Republicans, the abnormal returns are mostly concentrated in the portfolios of those with less trading experience. I also find that the positive abnormal returns disappear after the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act was passed in 2012. My results imply that the STOCK Act affected politicians' incentives to trade on private information, which they acquired through their power and party membership.
     

    Replies: @Corvinus

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Corvinus

    "So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience."

    Hey, my Corvums, have you NOTICED that the self-imploding states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New York all have one thing in common?

    What are the moral implications of manufacturing an economic depression in response to a mild flu virus?

    And I can't help but NOTICE that Democrat governors are colluding to interfere with the 2020 elections.

    Replies: @anonymous, @res

    , @Mr. Anon
    @Corvinus

    You might try noticing a few things, to wit: a.) you are an annoying bore, b.) nobody likes you, and c.) everyone here would prefer that you just f**k off.

    , @Inquiring Mind
    @Corvinus

    You mean, like, investments in cattle futures?

    , @Anonymous
    @Corvinus

    A message for the crow:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrXP5zoFxss

  9. Trump easy plays:

    1. Demand all the senators donate the money to relief efforts
    2. Ask for the GOP senators to resign
    3. File charges and prosecute the Dem senators for insider trading

    Frame it as, the Dems don’t report to me, I’m not their boss, so they get a chance to prove innocence and keep their jobs (if they can win re-election) The GOP guys are part of my team, so I take responsibility and they have to go, period.

    • Replies: @Hibernian
    @Not My Economy

    #s 2 & 3 should be bipartisan.

  10. “Accusations that U.S. Senators dumped stock after closed-door briefings on the pandemic are both revolting and reassuring that somebody in power made sensible decisions, even if just for their net worth.”

    Did these briefings convey knowledge not readily available via the hatestream media? If not, the charge is false.

    No, Democratic governors openly wrecking their economies to spite our President is revolting. They deserve prosecution and lifetime sentences.

  11. I sold all equity on January 3rd. I get all my news here.

    But I did start buying back in late February. 5% equities. I decided to put 5% in every quarter for the next 8 quarters. I knew it was too soon but it’s impossible to guess the predilections of the other judges in the beauty pageant.

    • Replies: @ziggurat
    @Hhsiii

    That sounds like a good plan. Robert Prechter (of the Elliot Wave Theory) thinks it will be a 2-year bear market. Only then will the judges start to generally see the contestants as beauties.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest

    , @Abe
    @Hhsiii


    I sold all equity on January 3rd. I get all my news here.

    But I did start buying back in late February. 5% equities. I decided to put 5% in every quarter for the next 8 quarters.
     

    What drove you to sell when you did, just a hunch? I was jettisoning equity all through 2019 and into 2020, but got it down to only ~45% of my position before the current crash - ce la vie. I had started to want to hedge as early as 2018, but remember the market slumped 10% that year before gaining a delicious 25% the next so I could have done worse.

    My general investment philosophy is that it’s impossible to perfectly time these things, but everyone knows when we’re in a recession/bear market, and that is an unambiguous time to buy, buy, buy. Put off any big purchases until later and invest in a S&P index fund now. To tell you the truth my wife and I refinanced our house last year to take out 6 figures of equity. The ostensible reason was to build a swimming pool, but the real reason in my mind, after we worried over and dropped the pool idea as I sort of knew we would, was to have a large cash reserve to buy-in for a moment just such as this.

    Replies: @JMcG

  12. @Anon
    @J.Ross

    Probably not. It's Burr and Loeffler who are most suspicious.

    https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/1240992873891483650

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    This is incorrect.

    Dianne Feinstein sold the stock Allogene, which is down by ~5% since she sold it. So she saved between $50,000 and $250,000. Which is a lot.

    However, there’s a more important point. Biotech stocks have down since this crisis started, due to broader market volatility and recessionary risk. The largest biotech sector ETF (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF) has been down by roughly -16% YTD, compared to -20% YTD for the NASDAQ.

    There are 2 points to take away.

    1. The biotech sector has been hammered almost as hard as the general market, which indicates that it’s fairly cyclical and dependent on the general economic cycle. Therefore, if you got inside information that the market was about to tank, you’d want to dump biotech stock almost as quickly as your non-biotech stock.

    2. Feinstein had inside information that the market was likely to tank. After getting this information, she sold $1-$5 MILLION of a biotech sector stock.

    Therefore, a plausible insider trading scenario can be made against Dianne Feinstein.

  13. Anonymous[339] • Disclaimer says:

    OT: Tonight Tucker Carlson show he did a monologue (@ approx 35 min past the hour) on the WuFlu …it being stronger in countries where malaria is eradicated and being stymied in countries where malaria is still present… so he’s an Steve reader amirite?

    OT: Steve Bannon is making a big comeback. His podcast is getting very good. He is talented. Just heard he will be on Maria Bartiromo show Sunday morning. Hasn’t he been banned up until now from fox?

    OT: Steve maybe consider azithromycin thread sometime in the future… part B of the Didier Raoult drug cocktail…. It’s an interesting drug that reduces key proteins employed by certain viruses…… such as the WuFlu. That medscape article I posted characterized it as having “known antiviral properties”…. interesting that wikipedia does not mention that. So it’s true to say that it doesn’t actually kill a virus. But it does deprive certain viruses of necessary protein which leads to virus weakness. Bottom line is the old saw about antibiotics being effective against bacterial infections exclusively —- that premise has some exceptions. I think 99% of educated people do not understand this dynamic. web search turns up some gov studies but mechanisms are poorly understood https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4923851/

  14. @Hhsiii
    I sold all equity on January 3rd. I get all my news here.

    But I did start buying back in late February. 5% equities. I decided to put 5% in every quarter for the next 8 quarters. I knew it was too soon but it’s impossible to guess the predilections of the other judges in the beauty pageant.

    Replies: @ziggurat, @Abe

    That sounds like a good plan. Robert Prechter (of the Elliot Wave Theory) thinks it will be a 2-year bear market. Only then will the judges start to generally see the contestants as beauties.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest

    • LOL: hhsiii
  15. @J.Ross
    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Replies: @Daniel H, @Anon, @Alfa158, @Reg Cæsar, @Charon, @Ian Smith, @Neoconned

    No Republican could defeat her in an election. Normally, with the elections system in California, she will run against another Democrat in the general election. The Inner Party would have to tell her that she should decide to retire after this term, and then they can select the next Democrat to be elected to her seat as they did when Harris replaced Boxer. Gavin Newsom probably believes he is her replacement but a straight White guy could be a problem so I wouldn’t start shopping for Washington condos if I were him. Unless Gavin also banged Willie Brown, then maybe he’s got it sewn up.

    • Replies: @anonn
    @Alfa158

    California is so averse to having straight white men as politicians that, of the 40 governors we've had since statehood, only 40 of them have been straight while males. 40 for 40! Clearly a white man has no chance in California politics.

    , @Prof. Woland
    @Alfa158

    My guess is that Adam Schiff will be the one to try and take her place. He is not exactly a white guy and neither are his (((donors))) who will go from being 2/2 Senators to 0/2 once Feinstein is gone.

    His only competition is that there will be growing pressure for a Latino to hold the highest office in California but the obvious candidates Xavier Becerra and Ricardo Lara are so dumb that I cannot imagine what would happen if either of them had more power. Worse, I anticipate a strong lurch to the left as non-whites consolidate their grip on power in California. The only thing stopping it now is that the state does not have enough money to do single payer or some other mass transfer to our more vibrant fellow Californos.

    Stock up and TP. It is going to get rough.

  16. @Corvinus
    What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?

    And, yes, it is revolting. All four should be investigated. Makes no difference their political party. So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience.

    Replies: @res, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @Inquiring Mind, @Anonymous

    What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?

    If you spent as much time answering your own questions as you do asking them you might be useful.

    Here is the 2004 paper:
    Abnormal Returns from the Common Stock Investments of the U.S. Senate
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46543239_Abnormal_Returns_from_the_Common_Stock_Investments_of_the_US_Senate

    The actions of the federal government can have a profound impact on financial markets. As prominent participants in the government decision making process, U.S. Senators are likely to have knowledge of forthcoming government actions before the information becomes public. This could provide them with an informational advantage over other investors. We test for abnormal returns from the common stock investments of members of the U.S. Senate during the period 1993 1998. We document that a portfolio that mimics the purchases of U.S. Senators beats the market by 85 basis points per month, while a portfolio that mimics the sales of Senators lags the market by 12 basis points per month. The large difference in the returns of stocks bought and sold (nearly one percentage point per month) is economically large and reliably positive.

    As a bonus, some related papers. First, a thesis from 2011:
    Congressional Insider Trading: An Analysis of the Personal Common Stock Transactions of U.S. Senators
    https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1110&context=cmc_theses

    I have examined the common stock investments made by members of the U.S. Senate between 2006 and 2009. I find that the average stock portfolio in the Senate exhibits one and two year cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of -0.15 % and 0.43%, respectively. This suggests that members of the Senate are not trading on insider knowledge as indicated by one previous researcher who calculated a one year CAR of 25%. However, my findings are in line with another previous researcher who found a one year CAR of about -2% and concluded that Congressmen are not trading on inside information. I also examine election-year trades made by senators who lose a reelection bid. This cashing out effect amounts to a CAR of 0.43% during the first year post loss, but after two years these trades exhibit a CAR of -0.03%. The cashing out group performs no better than the group as a whole, indicating that this group did not use their informational advantage to profit during the lame duck session.

    And a 2019 paper:
    Trading on Private Information: Evidence from Members of Congress
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fire.12180

    I examine the stock trades of members of Congress and find that over 2004–2010 the buy‐minus‐sell portfolios of powerful Republicans have the highest abnormal returns, exceeding 35% on an annual basis under a one‐week holding period. Among powerful Republicans, the abnormal returns are mostly concentrated in the portfolios of those with less trading experience. I also find that the positive abnormal returns disappear after the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act was passed in 2012. My results imply that the STOCK Act affected politicians’ incentives to trade on private information, which they acquired through their power and party membership.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
    @res

    Thanks for the links.

    "If you spent as much time answering your own questions as you do asking them you might be useful."

    That would be ad hominem and a hasty generalization. I may not be useful to you--although you never firmly established your case--but would I not be useful to my family, friends, and colleagues?
    If you do not think so, then you are going to have to offer particular examples how they feel otherwise.

    Besides, have you not made requests for links when you are curious and/or the person neglected to be specific? Why was this famous case not referred to directly by name?

    Replies: @res

  17. Burr and Loeffler need to be put under the jail.

    We need to make use of this moment of public outrage to set a real example.

  18. I think our country is ruled by an inner party of financiers, war profiteers, and global hustlers.

    DC is basically a giant global bazaar where wheeler-dealers from around the world show up to purchase politicians. Any “democracy” that takes place is totally coincidental.

    If that weren’t frightening enough, most of our “leaders” tend to be totally incompetent and lethargic. The majority of them are nothing more than glib conmen who specialize in grifting.

    Our rulers get an A+ in grifting – and an F in actual governance.

    • Agree: Dtbb, JMcG
    • Replies: @JackOH
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Yep, agree, more or less. I've been on the planet 60-some years, and maybe I'm missing something, but I mostly can't make a connection between "merit" and "goodness"--use your own criteria--and "reward". I'd like to, but I can't. As you say of democracy, the meritorious may sometimes get some visibly appropriate reward, but that's "totally coincidental".

  19. NPR was really trying to make hay out of a private speech Sen. Richard Burr gave a few weeks ago warning about what might happen.

    To me it seems like much ado about nothing. He was just describing pandemic response plans and what tools are available. The reporter sounded shocked, but comes off as just not familiar with standard prepardness and emergency response stuff.

    And looking back from now he kind of under-estimated the Dem. Governors’ actions.

    So i don’t know about other accusations, but with this one there’s no “there” there, imo.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/818192535/burr-recording-sparks-questions-about-private-comments-on-covid-19

    edit: some links to Burrs’ response. Apparently it wasn’t even a private speech.

    https://www.mediaite.com/news/sen-burr-hits-back-at-nprs-tabloid-style-hit-piece-knowingly-and-irresponsibly-misrepresented-my-speech/

    • Replies: @anon
    @vhrm

    Yeah, it looks bad and it should probably be disallowed for most Congresspeople to own stocks (especially the head of Senate Intelligence), the fact is the guy sold way late, Feb. 13, later than anyone should have (whether privy to special Intelligence committee info or just the regular MSM variety).

    Everybody just stayed in for a crazy long time (unfortunately myself included).

  20. Such conspiracy theories would make Turkey proud. “See? The Americans aren’t so naive after all, about time they’re coming to their senses!”

  21. @James Speaks
    Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.

    Replies: @MBlanc46, @AnotherDad, @Mike Tre, @Svevlad, @Just Passing Through

    Don’t forget the lengths of stout rope.

  22. @James Speaks
    Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.

    Replies: @MBlanc46, @AnotherDad, @Mike Tre, @Svevlad, @Just Passing Through

    Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.

    I’m definitely a peasants and pitchforks kind of guy. (My people.)

    But in the last few years, the thought of seeing these folks riding through the streets in tumbrils for a little shortening, is kind of heartwarming.

    But … they keep reminding me about nooses. Nooses, nooses, nooses everywhere. So hey, i say, let’s not just do shortening, but stretching as well!

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @AnotherDad

    Hear, hear!!

  23. Burr’s the only real scumbag, and I doubt we remember it. Why? Because Loeffler’s story, in which her investors heard of coronavirus and dumped her stock, makes it clear that any investor could have done the same thing. The only thing that makes Burr worse is that he really does appear to have said one thing in public and another in private.

    I wrote this up for twitter:

    1. Burr, etc, sold their stock, knowing that investors would panic.
    2. Investors panicked.
    3. Because investors panicked, pressure on fed/states grew even though public less than concerned.
    4. Quarantine, creating real econ depression.
    5. WSJ–hey, maybe panic was dumb. (retweet of wsjop ed saying hey, maybe panic was dumb.)

    But panic is what the *investors* did, not the public. No matter how dire the politicians got, no matter how serious the warnings, there are *lots* of people who think this is nonsense.

    So it’s hideous that Burr lied, but any non-Senator could have sold in January as well.

    The media really doesn’t understand its role in this, which is pretty horrible. They CREATED the pressures. Along with lawyers. Because what any modern society needs is an activist media and eager lawyers.

    The media never sold anything more than a chunk of the public on the need to freak out. But they convinced the politicians who still (stupidly) think the media has some sway on the people.

    So Burr and co got some news about the corona virus that everyone else got, too.
    The market tanked a week ago. the media has been going nuts about corona for at least two weeks, if not longer.

    Does anyone *really* think that if Burr had come and said “Hey, this is serious” that people would have been convinced?

    No. Here’s what *might* have happened:

    1. Burr says “OH MY GOD! CORONAVIRUS!”
    2. Market tanks. Unlikely. Bear with me.
    3. Media BELIEVES BURR. Unlikely. Bear with me.
    4. They say golly, all that shit we speak of “it’s just the flu” is wrong. They panic a whole month earlier.
    5. Politicians, still idiotic enough to think public cares about media, shut down the economy.
    6. Economy tanks.

    In short. Burr’s actions affected the public and the market not at all. To the extent the media mocked coronavirus for 3 weeks before taking it seriously…
    …we got three weeks of an untanked economy.

    I think what Burr et all did was pretty scummy, but the fact is that they placed their bets knowing their people: investors, politicians, and the media.

    Had little to do with the public.

  24. @Corvinus
    What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?

    And, yes, it is revolting. All four should be investigated. Makes no difference their political party. So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience.

    Replies: @res, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @Inquiring Mind, @Anonymous

    “So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience.”

    Hey, my Corvums, have you NOTICED that the self-imploding states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New York all have one thing in common?

    What are the moral implications of manufacturing an economic depression in response to a mild flu virus?

    And I can’t help but NOTICE that Democrat governors are colluding to interfere with the 2020 elections.

    • Troll: Corvinus
    • Replies: @anonymous
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    Mateen (may I call you "they?"), good comment. As a resident of the unfortunate Empire State (at least until retirement) I could not help but NOTICE the same things.

    , @res
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen

    LOL! Corvinus is just mad because he was out trolled.

  25. @Anonymous
    Congressmen, and their immediate employees, were allowed to insider trade with impunity until Obama apparently legislated against the practice. One obvious problem with Congressmen being allowed to insider trade was it allowed major corporations to bypass campaign contribution limits.

    That is, if I’m a the CEO of Boeing, and I meet with Congresswoman Feinstein on a golf course, and tell her during casual conversation that she would be well advised to go heavily long in Boeing stock by the end of the week, and she does so, the money she makes when the stock pops on my press release on Monday morning could be considered an extremely generous under-the-table campaign contribution. Owing to such a large "contribution," I can later count on Feinstein to pay for my companies bailout, after I rape it, with no grease.

    While inside trading was allowed, it was impossible for participating Congresswomen to vote in the interest of their constituency. Bills have been introduced for years, to stop this practice of legitimizing congresswomen from stealing from the public Scott free, and all of them died.

    I wasn’t even aware Obama managed to get something passed against it. Bully for him.

    I think all four congressmen and women (so far) should be prosecuted to the fullest extent the law allo2ws. We need to make examples of them to bring the rest of the Congress to Jesus.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @David Davenport

    It’s pretty shameful that Congress allowed themselves that privilege up until 2012. Burr was one of only three Senators who voted against the STOCK act. It’s probably full of loopholes. Or they will find themselves some new racket to enrich themselves from high office. I don’t think we’ll be seeing them getting any poorer.

  26. Feinstein (or her hubby) sold about six million dollars worth of one particular stock: Allogene Therapeutics. Looking at what the company does, it’s hard to see what particular financial misfortune she would avoid by selling it though. Maybe her sale was just a coincidence.

    Tucker had Kelly Loeffler (R – Georgia NYSE) on his show this evening. She sold a bunch of stock after the briefing she attended and bought stock in Citrix, which sells teleworking software. She claims her stock portfolio is in a blind-trust managed by financial advisors (which advisors she persistently refused to name, despite Tucker asking a couple of times). Of course, I suppose it’s possible that she might have mentioned something about her privileged information to these advisors. Hey, it’s a blind trust, not a deaf one.

    Carlson asked her: hadn’t she noticed the particular trades being made? She used to be an investment advisor. Didn’t those give her pause to wonder why they were being made?

    • Replies: @Autochthon
    @Mr. Anon

    https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn1.opensecrets.org%2Fnews%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F12%2F03151701%2FAtlanta-Dream-owner-Kelly-Loeffler-right-speaks-with-veteran-NBA-player-Dwight-Howard-left.jpg

    , @El Dato
    @Mr. Anon


    bought stock in Citrix, which sells teleworking software
     
    That's pure voodoo investing though.

    If I really wanted to get teleworking done in a hurry, I would not consider Citrix as a solution to anything. In 2020, one works via the browser, remotely mounted filesystems, wikis and Zoom, Slack or whatever the name is this month. But the keyhole passage is in getting everything installed, the users trained, the servers set up, valid login credentials issued and the IT support team expanded, with a new shelf for Red Bull canisters added too. Good luck!

    Actually, "investing" (i.e putting money on the stock roulette table) in AT&T, Comcast or Google Fiber (do these still exist?) would make more sense.

    I know a guy who got into trouble unawares because his financial advisor did the wrong move at about the same time a certain boardroom meeting was being held. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

  27. Mike Tre [AKA "MikeatMikedotMike"] says:
    @James Speaks
    Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.

    Replies: @MBlanc46, @AnotherDad, @Mike Tre, @Svevlad, @Just Passing Through

    Burning at the stake might be a tad retro, but I hear it’s making a comeback. Burning at the stake is the corduroy jeans of horrible, mob instigated deaths. Every couple decades it makes a brief but profound comeback.

  28. @Corvinus
    What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?

    And, yes, it is revolting. All four should be investigated. Makes no difference their political party. So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience.

    Replies: @res, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @Inquiring Mind, @Anonymous

    You might try noticing a few things, to wit: a.) you are an annoying bore, b.) nobody likes you, and c.) everyone here would prefer that you just f**k off.

    • Agree: Hibernian
    • Troll: Corvinus
  29. anonymous[173] • Disclaimer says:
    @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Corvinus

    "So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience."

    Hey, my Corvums, have you NOTICED that the self-imploding states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New York all have one thing in common?

    What are the moral implications of manufacturing an economic depression in response to a mild flu virus?

    And I can't help but NOTICE that Democrat governors are colluding to interfere with the 2020 elections.

    Replies: @anonymous, @res

    Mateen (may I call you “they?”), good comment. As a resident of the unfortunate Empire State (at least until retirement) I could not help but NOTICE the same things.

  30. Anon[750] • Disclaimer says:

    Insider trading is when someone who works for a company gives you secret info about that company that would affect the stock price. Covid-19 is not a company, and everybody freaking knew it was turning into a pandemic. You had to be an idiot not to realize it. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out there would be stock market panic about it. Secondly, the market was hitting 52-week highs in January and February anyway, and you’re supposed to sell the highs and buy the lows.

    • Agree: vhrm
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Anon

    This is an opportunity to purge (or scare) the Chamber of Commerce Republicans. Are you experiencing a failure of revolutionary consciousness, anonymous seven five zero?

    , @Mr McKenna
    @Anon


    Covid-19 is not a company, and everybody freaking knew it was turning into a pandemic. You had to be an idiot not to realize it. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out there would be stock market panic about it. Secondly, the market was hitting 52-week highs in January and February anyway, and you’re supposed to sell the highs and buy the lows.
     
    Thank you--apparently the obvious needs re-stating. What's more, even a casual reader of this blog (and many others) would have seen several of the more responsible contributors saying these very things--in January and February.

    As usual, the MSM is depending upon--and leveraging--the ignorance of the masses and making political hay out of it. This, essentially, is how we're governed. The people who own the MSM own most everything.
  31. Our local talk station investment guy put his clients in cash in January. He thought the market would go down, at least from election uncertainty and profit taking.
    He’s looking like a genius because he also said we could have a black swan.

  32. @J.Ross
    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Replies: @Daniel H, @Anon, @Alfa158, @Reg Cæsar, @Charon, @Ian Smith, @Neoconned

    Dian[n]e Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    She brandished a loaded military assault rifle before a crowd of reporters. That should have cost her her pistol license, if not much more. She still has her seat, and likely her license.

    I shed nary a tear for those states “uncompetitive” in the Electoral College. Why? Look at Di. She’s been in there for close to thirty years. She and Barbara Boxer approached fifty total years together in the Senate.

    The less competitive your state is in the presidential election, the more competitive it is within the walls of the US Senate.

  33. @Daniel H
    @J.Ross

    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Only the grim reaper is going to get that old bag out.

    Replies: @anon, @Anonymous

    Don’t sell Corona virus short, it can do wonders in term limiting. Two Congress critters are infected. When the forest fire is over, the ecosystem will look much different.

    • Replies: @AnonAnon
    @anon

    If only. I read a post on 4chan that seemed to imply the chloroquine treatment was being commandeered by our betters.

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal

    , @Anonymous
    @anon


    Don’t sell Corona virus short, it can do wonders in term limiting. Two Congress critters are infected. When the forest fire is over, the ecosystem will look much different.
     
    I recently declared to a sociopathic liberal friend of mine that Globalism is the greenest strategy the world has ever attempted. The potential for widescale death, and therefore, reduction in the plundering of earth's resources, is likely to beat communism without all the destruction to infrastructure communism tends to impart. It’s also classless. It kills off rich and poor alike.

    A neutron bomb is to a nuclear bomb what Globalism is to Communism. A relatively safe and sane strategy to kill fuckloads of surplus folk.

    I told him, "if this virus plays out as expected, you’re going to get to experience California as it was in the late 50's! Open freeways, affordable housing, easy surfing, great fishing, no long lines at the ski slope, reasonable golf course fees. All the things you’ve heard about California before the liberals arrived, but never believed possible! Tonight, every time you hear a Coronavirus-ridden globalist's scream, an angel gets his wings."

    My friend grew angry, but silent. Soon enough, despite being a hard-left liberal, he’ll learn gratitude.

    Replies: @Autochthon

  34. @Anon
    Insider trading is when someone who works for a company gives you secret info about that company that would affect the stock price. Covid-19 is not a company, and everybody freaking knew it was turning into a pandemic. You had to be an idiot not to realize it. It doesn't take a genius to figure out there would be stock market panic about it. Secondly, the market was hitting 52-week highs in January and February anyway, and you're supposed to sell the highs and buy the lows.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Mr McKenna

    This is an opportunity to purge (or scare) the Chamber of Commerce Republicans. Are you experiencing a failure of revolutionary consciousness, anonymous seven five zero?

  35. @Anon
    Insider trading is when someone who works for a company gives you secret info about that company that would affect the stock price. Covid-19 is not a company, and everybody freaking knew it was turning into a pandemic. You had to be an idiot not to realize it. It doesn't take a genius to figure out there would be stock market panic about it. Secondly, the market was hitting 52-week highs in January and February anyway, and you're supposed to sell the highs and buy the lows.

    Replies: @J.Ross, @Mr McKenna

    Covid-19 is not a company, and everybody freaking knew it was turning into a pandemic. You had to be an idiot not to realize it. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out there would be stock market panic about it. Secondly, the market was hitting 52-week highs in January and February anyway, and you’re supposed to sell the highs and buy the lows.

    Thank you–apparently the obvious needs re-stating. What’s more, even a casual reader of this blog (and many others) would have seen several of the more responsible contributors saying these very things–in January and February.

    As usual, the MSM is depending upon–and leveraging–the ignorance of the masses and making political hay out of it. This, essentially, is how we’re governed. The people who own the MSM own most everything.

  36. anon[368] • Disclaimer says:
    @vhrm
    NPR was really trying to make hay out of a private speech Sen. Richard Burr gave a few weeks ago warning about what might happen.

    To me it seems like much ado about nothing. He was just describing pandemic response plans and what tools are available. The reporter sounded shocked, but comes off as just not familiar with standard prepardness and emergency response stuff.

    And looking back from now he kind of under-estimated the Dem. Governors' actions.

    So i don't know about other accusations, but with this one there's no "there" there, imo.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/818192535/burr-recording-sparks-questions-about-private-comments-on-covid-19


    edit: some links to Burrs' response. Apparently it wasn't even a private speech.

    https://www.mediaite.com/news/sen-burr-hits-back-at-nprs-tabloid-style-hit-piece-knowingly-and-irresponsibly-misrepresented-my-speech/

    Replies: @anon

    Yeah, it looks bad and it should probably be disallowed for most Congresspeople to own stocks (especially the head of Senate Intelligence), the fact is the guy sold way late, Feb. 13, later than anyone should have (whether privy to special Intelligence committee info or just the regular MSM variety).

    Everybody just stayed in for a crazy long time (unfortunately myself included).

    • Agree: BB753
  37. Looks like they were too obvious about profiting from the hoax.

  38. @JohnnyWalker123
    I think our country is ruled by an inner party of financiers, war profiteers, and global hustlers.

    DC is basically a giant global bazaar where wheeler-dealers from around the world show up to purchase politicians. Any "democracy" that takes place is totally coincidental.

    If that weren't frightening enough, most of our "leaders" tend to be totally incompetent and lethargic. The majority of them are nothing more than glib conmen who specialize in grifting.

    Our rulers get an A+ in grifting - and an F in actual governance.

    Replies: @JackOH

    Yep, agree, more or less. I’ve been on the planet 60-some years, and maybe I’m missing something, but I mostly can’t make a connection between “merit” and “goodness”–use your own criteria–and “reward”. I’d like to, but I can’t. As you say of democracy, the meritorious may sometimes get some visibly appropriate reward, but that’s “totally coincidental”.

  39. @anon
    @Daniel H

    Don't sell Corona virus short, it can do wonders in term limiting. Two Congress critters are infected. When the forest fire is over, the ecosystem will look much different.

    Replies: @AnonAnon, @Anonymous

    If only. I read a post on 4chan that seemed to imply the chloroquine treatment was being commandeered by our betters.

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    @AnonAnon

    Warning : It is toxic.

    I know someone who takes it for arthritis. Even 200 mg has really nasty side effects at first. My friend got used to it.

    French doctors gave out about 600 mg per day
    Chinese doctors gave out about 1000 mg (500 mg twice a day).

    2000 mg kills a lot of the patients.

    If you take it, don’t take more than 500 mg at a time or 1000 mg per day. Just don’t.

    Replies: @AnonAnon

  40. All politicians are lying, scumbag, corrupt, assholes.

  41. Karlin was posting dire warnings about a forthcoming pandemic in February back when Trump and Fox were writing this off as either a hoax or a mild case of the flu depending on the day.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-will-kill-millions-crater-the-world-economy/

    Everyone knew it was a big issue in China and assumed it would not cause appreciable damage to Europe and the US like SARS and bird flu. That was until it hit northern Italy hard.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    @Ali Choudhury

    Trump and Fox were writing this off as either a hoax or a mild case of the flu depending on the day.

    They weren't.

    , @Johann Ricke
    @Ali Choudhury


    Everyone knew it was a big issue in China
     
    Nobody knows what the heck is happening in China at any given time of the day because it's a totalitarian state where sub rosa factional conflicts are raging all the time at the leadership level. Did the Cultural Revolution mean that there was a cultural problem in China? Or did it mean that China was going through one of its interminable power struggles, as Mao fought being gradually pushed off the stage?

    Basically, events in China can only be guessed at. It's like the Cold War all over again, except China is, in some ways, less open than Russia was.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

  42. Anon[272] • Disclaimer says:

    This seems like a nothingburger. There is no indication that these two politicians received any any inside or confidential information that was not out there in the media to anyone interested. The New York Times hilariously sidesteps this fact by saying that they received information that was unknown to Republicans because (to paraphrase) Republicans generally get their news from Fox news and have undeveloped amygdala so they were not fully in touch with reality at the time.

  43. @James Speaks
    Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.

    Replies: @MBlanc46, @AnotherDad, @Mike Tre, @Svevlad, @Just Passing Through

    I’m more of a “completely uncivilized forest militia that thinks toilet is for drinking water” like a certain southeast Asian maths teacher type of guy

  44. @J.Ross
    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Replies: @Daniel H, @Anon, @Alfa158, @Reg Cæsar, @Charon, @Ian Smith, @Neoconned

    The Lügenpresse is conveniently leaving Feinstein out of the narrative.

    • Replies: @Ragno
    @Charon

    You should hear the bullshit story they're allowing her to get away with. First it was that her husband makes all the financial decisions in her household (see, cos she's just a gurl, who's only good at baking and darning socks), before they segued to the "blind trust" whopper (that just happened to dump a $6 million portfolio right after the Dow hit an all-time high. You know; a computer algorithm dunnit.)

    Heads on poles - all of them. The old mockie along with the three GOP Swampers. Fancy Nancy herelf shouldn't escape:

    https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/pelosi-corzine-visa-scandal/

    And don't forget Wall Street's favorite bagman:

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/11/chuck-schumer-bernie-sanders-financial-industry-fundraising/

    But what are the media doing? Well, David Frum is using the scandal to accuse Trump of leading all the insider trading. Sigh. Don'tcha just love the Swamp?

  45. @James Speaks
    Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.

    Replies: @MBlanc46, @AnotherDad, @Mike Tre, @Svevlad, @Just Passing Through

    Are you sure they haven’t outsourced torch and pitchfork manufacturing to China?

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @Just Passing Through


    Are you sure they haven’t outsourced torch and pitchfork manufacturing to China?
     
    Aren't the pitchfork-handling peasants outsourced too in our days of the - anywheres' (David Goodhart) - miracles and wonders?
  46. @Not My Economy
    Trump easy plays:

    1. Demand all the senators donate the money to relief efforts
    2. Ask for the GOP senators to resign
    3. File charges and prosecute the Dem senators for insider trading

    Frame it as, the Dems don't report to me, I'm not their boss, so they get a chance to prove innocence and keep their jobs (if they can win re-election) The GOP guys are part of my team, so I take responsibility and they have to go, period.

    Replies: @Hibernian

    #s 2 & 3 should be bipartisan.

  47. @res
    @Corvinus


    What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?
     
    If you spent as much time answering your own questions as you do asking them you might be useful.

    Here is the 2004 paper:
    Abnormal Returns from the Common Stock Investments of the U.S. Senate
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46543239_Abnormal_Returns_from_the_Common_Stock_Investments_of_the_US_Senate

    The actions of the federal government can have a profound impact on financial markets. As prominent participants in the government decision making process, U.S. Senators are likely to have knowledge of forthcoming government actions before the information becomes public. This could provide them with an informational advantage over other investors. We test for abnormal returns from the common stock investments of members of the U.S. Senate during the period 1993 1998. We document that a portfolio that mimics the purchases of U.S. Senators beats the market by 85 basis points per month, while a portfolio that mimics the sales of Senators lags the market by 12 basis points per month. The large difference in the returns of stocks bought and sold (nearly one percentage point per month) is economically large and reliably positive.
     
    As a bonus, some related papers. First, a thesis from 2011:
    Congressional Insider Trading: An Analysis of the Personal Common Stock Transactions of U.S. Senators
    https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1110&context=cmc_theses

    I have examined the common stock investments made by members of the U.S. Senate between 2006 and 2009. I find that the average stock portfolio in the Senate exhibits one and two year cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of -0.15 % and 0.43%, respectively. This suggests that members of the Senate are not trading on insider knowledge as indicated by one previous researcher who calculated a one year CAR of 25%. However, my findings are in line with another previous researcher who found a one year CAR of about -2% and concluded that Congressmen are not trading on inside information. I also examine election-year trades made by senators who lose a reelection bid. This cashing out effect amounts to a CAR of 0.43% during the first year post loss, but after two years these trades exhibit a CAR of -0.03%. The cashing out group performs no better than the group as a whole, indicating that this group did not use their informational advantage to profit during the lame duck session.
     
    And a 2019 paper:
    Trading on Private Information: Evidence from Members of Congress
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fire.12180

    I examine the stock trades of members of Congress and find that over 2004–2010 the buy‐minus‐sell portfolios of powerful Republicans have the highest abnormal returns, exceeding 35% on an annual basis under a one‐week holding period. Among powerful Republicans, the abnormal returns are mostly concentrated in the portfolios of those with less trading experience. I also find that the positive abnormal returns disappear after the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act was passed in 2012. My results imply that the STOCK Act affected politicians' incentives to trade on private information, which they acquired through their power and party membership.
     

    Replies: @Corvinus

    Thanks for the links.

    “If you spent as much time answering your own questions as you do asking them you might be useful.”

    That would be ad hominem and a hasty generalization. I may not be useful to you–although you never firmly established your case–but would I not be useful to my family, friends, and colleagues?
    If you do not think so, then you are going to have to offer particular examples how they feel otherwise.

    Besides, have you not made requests for links when you are curious and/or the person neglected to be specific? Why was this famous case not referred to directly by name?

    • Replies: @res
    @Corvinus


    Besides, have you not made requests for links when you are curious and/or the person neglected to be specific?
     
    I typically ask for links after I have made a reasonable effort to search for myself. This search was easy enough that it was clear you did not make much of an effort (if any). And you will more often see me post the results of my searches rather than asking. As in this case.
  48. @Hhsiii
    I sold all equity on January 3rd. I get all my news here.

    But I did start buying back in late February. 5% equities. I decided to put 5% in every quarter for the next 8 quarters. I knew it was too soon but it’s impossible to guess the predilections of the other judges in the beauty pageant.

    Replies: @ziggurat, @Abe

    I sold all equity on January 3rd. I get all my news here.

    But I did start buying back in late February. 5% equities. I decided to put 5% in every quarter for the next 8 quarters.

    What drove you to sell when you did, just a hunch? I was jettisoning equity all through 2019 and into 2020, but got it down to only ~45% of my position before the current crash – ce la vie. I had started to want to hedge as early as 2018, but remember the market slumped 10% that year before gaining a delicious 25% the next so I could have done worse.

    My general investment philosophy is that it’s impossible to perfectly time these things, but everyone knows when we’re in a recession/bear market, and that is an unambiguous time to buy, buy, buy. Put off any big purchases until later and invest in a S&P index fund now. To tell you the truth my wife and I refinanced our house last year to take out 6 figures of equity. The ostensible reason was to build a swimming pool, but the real reason in my mind, after we worried over and dropped the pool idea as I sort of knew we would, was to have a large cash reserve to buy-in for a moment just such as this.

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @Abe

    I sold everything the last week of January based solely on what I’d been reading here and other like minded places. I also bought 250 masks and bottles of hand sanitizer. I made a number of other purchases of that kind as well.
    Based solely on what I’d read here and in some European newspapers.
    It was very difficult to pull the trigger on getting out of the equity market, but I did it.
    Sometimes the evidence is clear. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any real fallout from this. I’d like to think there will be, but I really doubt it.

  49. anon[827] • Disclaimer says:

    There was a famous 2004 paper about the high returns Senators generate on their stock portfolios, with the implication of inside information… But critics have since accused the paper of p-hacking…

    You can use statistics to prove anything, forfty percent of people know that

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, it’s only insider trading if you get caught

  50. @AnotherDad
    @James Speaks



    Calling all peasants with pitchforks. The torches are over here.
     
    I'm definitely a peasants and pitchforks kind of guy. (My people.)

    But in the last few years, the thought of seeing these folks riding through the streets in tumbrils for a little shortening, is kind of heartwarming.

    But ... they keep reminding me about nooses. Nooses, nooses, nooses everywhere. So hey, i say, let's not just do shortening, but stretching as well!

    Replies: @JMcG

    Hear, hear!!

  51. JMcG says:
    @Abe
    @Hhsiii


    I sold all equity on January 3rd. I get all my news here.

    But I did start buying back in late February. 5% equities. I decided to put 5% in every quarter for the next 8 quarters.
     

    What drove you to sell when you did, just a hunch? I was jettisoning equity all through 2019 and into 2020, but got it down to only ~45% of my position before the current crash - ce la vie. I had started to want to hedge as early as 2018, but remember the market slumped 10% that year before gaining a delicious 25% the next so I could have done worse.

    My general investment philosophy is that it’s impossible to perfectly time these things, but everyone knows when we’re in a recession/bear market, and that is an unambiguous time to buy, buy, buy. Put off any big purchases until later and invest in a S&P index fund now. To tell you the truth my wife and I refinanced our house last year to take out 6 figures of equity. The ostensible reason was to build a swimming pool, but the real reason in my mind, after we worried over and dropped the pool idea as I sort of knew we would, was to have a large cash reserve to buy-in for a moment just such as this.

    Replies: @JMcG

    I sold everything the last week of January based solely on what I’d been reading here and other like minded places. I also bought 250 masks and bottles of hand sanitizer. I made a number of other purchases of that kind as well.
    Based solely on what I’d read here and in some European newspapers.
    It was very difficult to pull the trigger on getting out of the equity market, but I did it.
    Sometimes the evidence is clear. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any real fallout from this. I’d like to think there will be, but I really doubt it.

  52. @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Corvinus

    "So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience."

    Hey, my Corvums, have you NOTICED that the self-imploding states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New York all have one thing in common?

    What are the moral implications of manufacturing an economic depression in response to a mild flu virus?

    And I can't help but NOTICE that Democrat governors are colluding to interfere with the 2020 elections.

    Replies: @anonymous, @res

    LOL! Corvinus is just mad because he was out trolled.

  53. @J.Ross
    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Replies: @Daniel H, @Anon, @Alfa158, @Reg Cæsar, @Charon, @Ian Smith, @Neoconned

    DF will be there for life.

    • Replies: @Autochthon
    @Ian Smith

    And her life shall be endless, for her soul is in a phylactery,

    Replies: @Anonymous

  54. @J.Ross
    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Replies: @Daniel H, @Anon, @Alfa158, @Reg Cæsar, @Charon, @Ian Smith, @Neoconned

    I hope but don’t expect much. Anyway,

    If you or me did this we’d be about to go to federal prison….

  55. Beware the Deep State Department.

  56. @AnonAnon
    @anon

    If only. I read a post on 4chan that seemed to imply the chloroquine treatment was being commandeered by our betters.

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal

    Warning : It is toxic.

    I know someone who takes it for arthritis. Even 200 mg has really nasty side effects at first. My friend got used to it.

    French doctors gave out about 600 mg per day
    Chinese doctors gave out about 1000 mg (500 mg twice a day).

    2000 mg kills a lot of the patients.

    If you take it, don’t take more than 500 mg at a time or 1000 mg per day. Just don’t.

    • Replies: @AnonAnon
    @Paleo Liberal

    If I was on my deathbed from coronavirus it probably wouldn’t hurt to try it if they don’t find something else, but right now I’m counting on embracing the quarantine lifestyle, hand washing, and my O blood type (suck it, Sailer blog Irish-bashers).

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal

  57. Anonymous[186] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    @Daniel H

    Don't sell Corona virus short, it can do wonders in term limiting. Two Congress critters are infected. When the forest fire is over, the ecosystem will look much different.

    Replies: @AnonAnon, @Anonymous

    Don’t sell Corona virus short, it can do wonders in term limiting. Two Congress critters are infected. When the forest fire is over, the ecosystem will look much different.

    I recently declared to a sociopathic liberal friend of mine that Globalism is the greenest strategy the world has ever attempted. The potential for widescale death, and therefore, reduction in the plundering of earth’s resources, is likely to beat communism without all the destruction to infrastructure communism tends to impart. It’s also classless. It kills off rich and poor alike.

    A neutron bomb is to a nuclear bomb what Globalism is to Communism. A relatively safe and sane strategy to kill fuckloads of surplus folk.

    I told him, “if this virus plays out as expected, you’re going to get to experience California as it was in the late 50’s! Open freeways, affordable housing, easy surfing, great fishing, no long lines at the ski slope, reasonable golf course fees. All the things you’ve heard about California before the liberals arrived, but never believed possible! Tonight, every time you hear a Coronavirus-ridden globalist’s scream, an angel gets his wings.”

    My friend grew angry, but silent. Soon enough, despite being a hard-left liberal, he’ll learn gratitude.

    • Agree: Autochthon
    • Troll: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Autochthon
    @Anonymous

    Why do you maintain friendships with sociopaths?

    I regularly see similar comments here:

    • "A friend of mine who is a conniving asshole once..."
    • "I have a female friend at work who hates men..."

    Find better people to befriend.

  58. @Paleo Liberal
    @AnonAnon

    Warning : It is toxic.

    I know someone who takes it for arthritis. Even 200 mg has really nasty side effects at first. My friend got used to it.

    French doctors gave out about 600 mg per day
    Chinese doctors gave out about 1000 mg (500 mg twice a day).

    2000 mg kills a lot of the patients.

    If you take it, don’t take more than 500 mg at a time or 1000 mg per day. Just don’t.

    Replies: @AnonAnon

    If I was on my deathbed from coronavirus it probably wouldn’t hurt to try it if they don’t find something else, but right now I’m counting on embracing the quarantine lifestyle, hand washing, and my O blood type (suck it, Sailer blog Irish-bashers).

    • Replies: @Paleo Liberal
    @AnonAnon

    I am living a similar lifestyle and O blood type.

    But,

    I know where a stash is for a day or two supply until I could convince a doctor to prescribe me some.

  59. Anonymous[174] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel H
    @J.Ross

    Diane Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Only the grim reaper is going to get that old bag out.

    Replies: @anon, @Anonymous

    Dianne Feinstein was one of the cheaters, could this get her out?

    Only the grim reaper is going to get that old bag out.

    The Grim Reaper doesn’t have that kind of power.

  60. @AnonAnon
    @Paleo Liberal

    If I was on my deathbed from coronavirus it probably wouldn’t hurt to try it if they don’t find something else, but right now I’m counting on embracing the quarantine lifestyle, hand washing, and my O blood type (suck it, Sailer blog Irish-bashers).

    Replies: @Paleo Liberal

    I am living a similar lifestyle and O blood type.

    But,

    I know where a stash is for a day or two supply until I could convince a doctor to prescribe me some.

  61. @Ali Choudhury
    Karlin was posting dire warnings about a forthcoming pandemic in February back when Trump and Fox were writing this off as either a hoax or a mild case of the flu depending on the day.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-will-kill-millions-crater-the-world-economy/

    Everyone knew it was a big issue in China and assumed it would not cause appreciable damage to Europe and the US like SARS and bird flu. That was until it hit northern Italy hard.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Johann Ricke

    Trump and Fox were writing this off as either a hoax or a mild case of the flu depending on the day.

    They weren’t.

  62. @Alfa158
    @J.Ross

    No Republican could defeat her in an election. Normally, with the elections system in California, she will run against another Democrat in the general election. The Inner Party would have to tell her that she should decide to retire after this term, and then they can select the next Democrat to be elected to her seat as they did when Harris replaced Boxer. Gavin Newsom probably believes he is her replacement but a straight White guy could be a problem so I wouldn’t start shopping for Washington condos if I were him. Unless Gavin also banged Willie Brown, then maybe he’s got it sewn up.

    Replies: @anonn, @Prof. Woland

    California is so averse to having straight white men as politicians that, of the 40 governors we’ve had since statehood, only 40 of them have been straight while males. 40 for 40! Clearly a white man has no chance in California politics.

  63. @Ali Choudhury
    Karlin was posting dire warnings about a forthcoming pandemic in February back when Trump and Fox were writing this off as either a hoax or a mild case of the flu depending on the day.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-will-kill-millions-crater-the-world-economy/

    Everyone knew it was a big issue in China and assumed it would not cause appreciable damage to Europe and the US like SARS and bird flu. That was until it hit northern Italy hard.

    Replies: @Art Deco, @Johann Ricke

    Everyone knew it was a big issue in China

    Nobody knows what the heck is happening in China at any given time of the day because it’s a totalitarian state where sub rosa factional conflicts are raging all the time at the leadership level. Did the Cultural Revolution mean that there was a cultural problem in China? Or did it mean that China was going through one of its interminable power struggles, as Mao fought being gradually pushed off the stage?

    Basically, events in China can only be guessed at. It’s like the Cold War all over again, except China is, in some ways, less open than Russia was.

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Johann Ricke


    Basically, events in China can only be guessed at. It’s like the Cold War all over again, except China is, in some ways, less open than Russia was.
     
    We used to say they were inscruitable. But that's considered racist now. It's a pity how so many true things have become racist.
  64. @Just Passing Through
    @James Speaks

    Are you sure they haven't outsourced torch and pitchfork manufacturing to China?

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

    Are you sure they haven’t outsourced torch and pitchfork manufacturing to China?

    Aren’t the pitchfork-handling peasants outsourced too in our days of the – anywheres’ (David Goodhart) – miracles and wonders?

  65. @Corvinus
    @res

    Thanks for the links.

    "If you spent as much time answering your own questions as you do asking them you might be useful."

    That would be ad hominem and a hasty generalization. I may not be useful to you--although you never firmly established your case--but would I not be useful to my family, friends, and colleagues?
    If you do not think so, then you are going to have to offer particular examples how they feel otherwise.

    Besides, have you not made requests for links when you are curious and/or the person neglected to be specific? Why was this famous case not referred to directly by name?

    Replies: @res

    Besides, have you not made requests for links when you are curious and/or the person neglected to be specific?

    I typically ask for links after I have made a reasonable effort to search for myself. This search was easy enough that it was clear you did not make much of an effort (if any). And you will more often see me post the results of my searches rather than asking. As in this case.

  66. @Mr. Anon
    Feinstein (or her hubby) sold about six million dollars worth of one particular stock: Allogene Therapeutics. Looking at what the company does, it's hard to see what particular financial misfortune she would avoid by selling it though. Maybe her sale was just a coincidence.

    Tucker had Kelly Loeffler (R - Georgia NYSE) on his show this evening. She sold a bunch of stock after the briefing she attended and bought stock in Citrix, which sells teleworking software. She claims her stock portfolio is in a blind-trust managed by financial advisors (which advisors she persistently refused to name, despite Tucker asking a couple of times). Of course, I suppose it's possible that she might have mentioned something about her privileged information to these advisors. Hey, it's a blind trust, not a deaf one.

    Carlson asked her: hadn't she noticed the particular trades being made? She used to be an investment advisor. Didn't those give her pause to wonder why they were being made?

    Replies: @Autochthon, @El Dato

  67. @Ian Smith
    @J.Ross

    DF will be there for life.

    Replies: @Autochthon

    And her life shall be endless, for her soul is in a phylactery,

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Autochthon

    She drops epic loot.

  68. @Anonymous
    Congressmen, and their immediate employees, were allowed to insider trade with impunity until Obama apparently legislated against the practice. One obvious problem with Congressmen being allowed to insider trade was it allowed major corporations to bypass campaign contribution limits.

    That is, if I’m a the CEO of Boeing, and I meet with Congresswoman Feinstein on a golf course, and tell her during casual conversation that she would be well advised to go heavily long in Boeing stock by the end of the week, and she does so, the money she makes when the stock pops on my press release on Monday morning could be considered an extremely generous under-the-table campaign contribution. Owing to such a large "contribution," I can later count on Feinstein to pay for my companies bailout, after I rape it, with no grease.

    While inside trading was allowed, it was impossible for participating Congresswomen to vote in the interest of their constituency. Bills have been introduced for years, to stop this practice of legitimizing congresswomen from stealing from the public Scott free, and all of them died.

    I wasn’t even aware Obama managed to get something passed against it. Bully for him.

    I think all four congressmen and women (so far) should be prosecuted to the fullest extent the law allo2ws. We need to make examples of them to bring the rest of the Congress to Jesus.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon, @David Davenport

    Congressmen, and their immediate employees, were allowed to insider trade with impunity until Obama apparently legislated against the practice

    That is fiction. Legislation to stop Congressional insider trader was proposed, but never enacted.

  69. @Anonymous
    @anon


    Don’t sell Corona virus short, it can do wonders in term limiting. Two Congress critters are infected. When the forest fire is over, the ecosystem will look much different.
     
    I recently declared to a sociopathic liberal friend of mine that Globalism is the greenest strategy the world has ever attempted. The potential for widescale death, and therefore, reduction in the plundering of earth's resources, is likely to beat communism without all the destruction to infrastructure communism tends to impart. It’s also classless. It kills off rich and poor alike.

    A neutron bomb is to a nuclear bomb what Globalism is to Communism. A relatively safe and sane strategy to kill fuckloads of surplus folk.

    I told him, "if this virus plays out as expected, you’re going to get to experience California as it was in the late 50's! Open freeways, affordable housing, easy surfing, great fishing, no long lines at the ski slope, reasonable golf course fees. All the things you’ve heard about California before the liberals arrived, but never believed possible! Tonight, every time you hear a Coronavirus-ridden globalist's scream, an angel gets his wings."

    My friend grew angry, but silent. Soon enough, despite being a hard-left liberal, he’ll learn gratitude.

    Replies: @Autochthon

    Why do you maintain friendships with sociopaths?

    I regularly see similar comments here:

    • “A friend of mine who is a conniving asshole once…”
    • “I have a female friend at work who hates men…”

    Find better people to befriend.

    • Agree: Twodees Partain
  70. @Corvinus
    What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?

    And, yes, it is revolting. All four should be investigated. Makes no difference their political party. So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience.

    Replies: @res, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @Inquiring Mind, @Anonymous

    You mean, like, investments in cattle futures?

  71. @Charon
    @J.Ross

    The Lügenpresse is conveniently leaving Feinstein out of the narrative.

    Replies: @Ragno

    You should hear the bullshit story they’re allowing her to get away with. First it was that her husband makes all the financial decisions in her household (see, cos she’s just a gurl, who’s only good at baking and darning socks), before they segued to the “blind trust” whopper (that just happened to dump a $6 million portfolio right after the Dow hit an all-time high. You know; a computer algorithm dunnit.)

    Heads on poles – all of them. The old mockie along with the three GOP Swampers. Fancy Nancy herelf shouldn’t escape:

    https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/pelosi-corzine-visa-scandal/

    And don’t forget Wall Street’s favorite bagman:

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/11/chuck-schumer-bernie-sanders-financial-industry-fundraising/

    But what are the media doing? Well, David Frum is using the scandal to accuse Trump of leading all the insider trading. Sigh. Don’tcha just love the Swamp?

    • Agree: HammerJack
  72. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @Corvinus
    What famous 2004 paper, Mr. Sailer?

    And, yes, it is revolting. All four should be investigated. Makes no difference their political party. So, Mr. Sailer, what is the moral implication here? Maybe use your clout to NOTICE these things for your audience.

    Replies: @res, @Je Suis Omar Mateen, @Mr. Anon, @Inquiring Mind, @Anonymous

    A message for the crow:

  73. @Johann Ricke
    @Ali Choudhury


    Everyone knew it was a big issue in China
     
    Nobody knows what the heck is happening in China at any given time of the day because it's a totalitarian state where sub rosa factional conflicts are raging all the time at the leadership level. Did the Cultural Revolution mean that there was a cultural problem in China? Or did it mean that China was going through one of its interminable power struggles, as Mao fought being gradually pushed off the stage?

    Basically, events in China can only be guessed at. It's like the Cold War all over again, except China is, in some ways, less open than Russia was.

    Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Basically, events in China can only be guessed at. It’s like the Cold War all over again, except China is, in some ways, less open than Russia was.

    We used to say they were inscruitable. But that’s considered racist now. It’s a pity how so many true things have become racist.

  74. @Mr. Anon
    Feinstein (or her hubby) sold about six million dollars worth of one particular stock: Allogene Therapeutics. Looking at what the company does, it's hard to see what particular financial misfortune she would avoid by selling it though. Maybe her sale was just a coincidence.

    Tucker had Kelly Loeffler (R - Georgia NYSE) on his show this evening. She sold a bunch of stock after the briefing she attended and bought stock in Citrix, which sells teleworking software. She claims her stock portfolio is in a blind-trust managed by financial advisors (which advisors she persistently refused to name, despite Tucker asking a couple of times). Of course, I suppose it's possible that she might have mentioned something about her privileged information to these advisors. Hey, it's a blind trust, not a deaf one.

    Carlson asked her: hadn't she noticed the particular trades being made? She used to be an investment advisor. Didn't those give her pause to wonder why they were being made?

    Replies: @Autochthon, @El Dato

    bought stock in Citrix, which sells teleworking software

    That’s pure voodoo investing though.

    If I really wanted to get teleworking done in a hurry, I would not consider Citrix as a solution to anything. In 2020, one works via the browser, remotely mounted filesystems, wikis and Zoom, Slack or whatever the name is this month. But the keyhole passage is in getting everything installed, the users trained, the servers set up, valid login credentials issued and the IT support team expanded, with a new shelf for Red Bull canisters added too. Good luck!

    Actually, “investing” (i.e putting money on the stock roulette table) in AT&T, Comcast or Google Fiber (do these still exist?) would make more sense.

    I know a guy who got into trouble unawares because his financial advisor did the wrong move at about the same time a certain boardroom meeting was being held. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

  75. @Alfa158
    @J.Ross

    No Republican could defeat her in an election. Normally, with the elections system in California, she will run against another Democrat in the general election. The Inner Party would have to tell her that she should decide to retire after this term, and then they can select the next Democrat to be elected to her seat as they did when Harris replaced Boxer. Gavin Newsom probably believes he is her replacement but a straight White guy could be a problem so I wouldn’t start shopping for Washington condos if I were him. Unless Gavin also banged Willie Brown, then maybe he’s got it sewn up.

    Replies: @anonn, @Prof. Woland

    My guess is that Adam Schiff will be the one to try and take her place. He is not exactly a white guy and neither are his (((donors))) who will go from being 2/2 Senators to 0/2 once Feinstein is gone.

    His only competition is that there will be growing pressure for a Latino to hold the highest office in California but the obvious candidates Xavier Becerra and Ricardo Lara are so dumb that I cannot imagine what would happen if either of them had more power. Worse, I anticipate a strong lurch to the left as non-whites consolidate their grip on power in California. The only thing stopping it now is that the state does not have enough money to do single payer or some other mass transfer to our more vibrant fellow Californos.

    Stock up and TP. It is going to get rough.

  76. Anonymous[199] • Disclaimer says:
    @Autochthon
    @Ian Smith

    And her life shall be endless, for her soul is in a phylactery,

    Replies: @Anonymous

    She drops epic loot.

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