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Screenshot 2016-10-05 14.11.04

I’m reposting this item from Wednesday that seems to have been lost in the server meltdown. Unfortunately, your comments on it were probably lost for good, along with other comments you all made on Wednesday.

From the New York Times:

Traffic Deaths Up More Than 10 Percent in First Half of 2016

By DANIEL VICTOR OCT. 5, 2016

Traffic deaths in the United States rose 10.4 percent in the first half of this year compared with fatalities from the same period in 2015, maintaining a steady and troublesome climb.

The numbers were released on Wednesday by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which noted that Americans drove about 50.5 billion more miles in the first six months of 2016 compared to the total miles in the first half of 2015, an increase of 3.3 percent.

But that does not account for the rise in the number of deaths: to 17,775 in the first six months of 2016 from 16,100 in the same period in 2015.

Officials have not identified any specific cause for the most recent increase.

“It is too soon to attribute contributing factors or potential implications of any changes in deaths on our roadways,” the agency said.

The dire statistics were the latest bad news from the traffic safety administration. The rate of fatalities has increased for seven consecutive quarters compared with traffic deaths in the corresponding quarters of previous years, dating to the final months of 2014.

Presumably, much of what’s going on is a belated rebound from the the rise in gasoline prices in the later 2000s and the ensuing Great Recession, which cut miles driven and drove a lot of marginal drivers (e.g., teens, illegal aliens, etc.) out of owning a car. And there can be lots of random influences, such as weather.

As commenters have suggested, maybe the spread of smartphones is making us more distracted drivers?

But still, another question we ought to start asking, considering that we are talking about a growth in the annual traffic death rate over the last seven quarters of well over 5,000 incremental violent deaths per year is: is this related to the Ferguson Effect that has been driving up homicides over almost precisely the same time period?

Are cops policing the streets and highways less proactively, spending more time in the donut shop, because they don’t want to wind up on Youtube as the face of Implicit Bias and Systemic Racism Against Black Bodies?

I don’t know, but it’s worth looking into.

Here’s another hypothesis: perhaps the rapid spread of high tech safety devices into new mass market cars, like backup cameras and blind spot detection and lane changing warning signals is, perversely, getting more people killed? I sure hope not, because this technology seems like it ought to be a real boon to humanity, but it’s not unknown for reforms to have unwanted effects.

 
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  1. The Ferguson Effect on murders is noticeable in only a few cities, e.g. Baltimore, Chicago. How have traffic deaths changed near those cities?

  2. I doubt many cops are in donut shops these days. Even if they’re not policing vigorously, I bet there is some mechanism for them to be tracked so the bosses can confirm presence in neighborhoods, etc.

  3. Doubtful that the cops are laying off on traffic enforcement. Traffic tickets are still a fairly safe and profitable cop function.
    During the last several months locally, we have had a rash of motorcyclists swerving into the on coming lane and getting pancaked.

  4. Increasing drug use, both legal and illegal.

    Increasing texting and facebook use. I see a lawsuit looming. Attractive nuisance. Also the instrument panels for new cars are too captivating.

    How are the numbers moving for speeding tickets and reckless driving tickets? Up or down?

    • Replies: @Ivy
    @stillCARealist

    Texting drivers may be observed at any stoplight. Just look for the telltale head bob. If you want to get a different perspective on the risks of those sharing the road with you, try the following: stand at a corner for 10 minutes to see how many people are texting as they drive by, or as they turn the corner, or brake to a stop. The results should startle you.

    Replies: @Lurker

    , @Ivy
    @stillCARealist

    Texting drivers may be observed at any stoplight. Just look for the telltale head bob. If you want to get a different perspective on the risks of those sharing the road with you, try the following: stand at a corner for 10 minutes to see how many people are texting as they drive by, or as they turn the corner, or brake to a stop. The results should startle you.

    Replies: @Lugash

    , @Alfa158
    @stillCARealist

    I think a lot of it is what you said. Additionally:
    - Teenagers grow up playing auto related video games with crazy dynamics, switch over to real cars with real physics and wipe them out. An alarming percentage of teenagers I know wreck a car shortly after getting their license, even relatively serious responsible kids. I don't remember that from when I was in that age cohort.
    - Huge immigrant population with poor driving habits, or driving for the first time. Hispanic men in particular seem to regard driving after 10 cervezas to be perfectly normal.
    - Compared to the cars I drove 40 years ago, cars today have startling levels of acceleration and cornering. They are just generally moving way faster than they used to and the traction and braking improvements can't always offset the sheer speed so it is easier to get in trouble. I have been a car nut all my life and still have car magazines with instrumented road test articles from the mid '60's. A Toyota Camry V6 has the same quarter mile elapsed time as a 1965 Pontiac GTO with a 389, triple carbs, and a close ratio 4 speed. The only difference is that if they stay on it past the traps, the Toyota will pull away on top speed and disappear into the distance. In SoCal, when you find a stretch of freeway that is open, 85 seems to be the standard speed.

    Replies: @Lot, @Anon, @PiltdownMan

  5. • Replies: @AndrewR
    @anon930

    That which cannot go on forever won't go on forever.

    , @AndrewR
    @anon930

    So I just did a quick estimate:

    UM has approximately 43,000 students

    80m / 5 years / 43k students = about $370/student/year.

    Probably not all of this will come out of tuition, but this is still a lot of money. More than many people make after taxes in a week. And that's not including interest on the loans and the opportunity costs. Talk about a racket. I wouldn't pay a cent to send my kids to this school and I would strongly advise them to consider other options. Time to Just Say No to the university racket.

    , @Lot
    @anon930

    U of M no longer has affirmative action thanks to Ward Connerly's activism, and the three URM groups collectively are about 10% of the student body, making it one of the least URM prestigious colleges in the USA.

    The $85 million in diversity programs cost is probably dwarfed by the amount of money U of M saves not having AA given the savings from fewer remedial classes and less campus crime.

    Replies: @AndrewR

  6. It’s cell phones, mostly. And people who’ve never learned how to drive defensively. Or learned to drive at all.

    Around here, a lot of Islanders (actually Puerto Ricans-what was the white man thinking when he annexed that hell hole?) are in to the hit and run. Driving beat up unregistered and uninsured junkers, they don’t care if they run in to something, or someone. Why should they? The cops don’t care, either. They have bigger fish to fry dealing with assaults and murders.

    A lot of talk about East Asian women driving badly. They are not so much bad drivers as they are overly cautious–which translates to weird driving habits. And they have no peripheral vision. Look straight ahead, and hope for the best.

    In order to decrease red light running accidents, DOT elongates the signal change. People know it, so they just run the red, figuring that the adjacent green won’t come on for a few seconds–enough for them to get across the intersection. Or cities shorten the yellow in order to make some fast “camera” money. It’s all insane. If I was a cop, I’d be hanging out at Dolly’s Do-nuts, too.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @mp


    A lot of talk about East Asian women driving badly. They are not so much bad drivers as they are overly cautious–which translates to weird driving habits. And they have no peripheral vision. Look straight ahead, and hope for the best.
     
    Asian american drivers seem fine, and asian immigrant ones are a little erratic and more likely to cause a fender bender in a parking lot, but I doubt cause many highway deaths.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas, @Foreign Expert, @Brutusale

    , @AndrewR
    @mp

    When you say "the white man" do you mean the US government? Either way, you sound dumb af saying that.

  7. I think we’d need to see whats happening in the Usual Suspect Cities(Chicago, Baltimore, etc) to make any sort of reasonable guess. There are too many other factors, like drivers distracted by their smartphones as well.

    Edit: Breaking down traffic deaths by race would be instructive as well.

    • Replies: @Alec Leamas
    @Lugash

    Isn't Steve's point not that something has happened in the riotous cities specifically, but rather that all cops are somewhat leery about being the next instantly famous white cop (or white Hispanic cop, white Asian cop, white black cop) and therefore less aggressive in policing traffic violations? (Cops are taught that this is the most dangerous transaction for police leading to the most LEO deaths).

    Replies: @Lugash

  8. I wonder how many people have been killed due to the new fad of urban youth dirt bike gangs riding wheelies up and down city streets at 60 mph? I’ve seen it in two cities but there’s hardly any reporting on it and the cops seem uninterested in controlling it.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Jean Cocteausten

    That could be a factor.

    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar

  9. Isn’t it time to make plans about how to survive Ms. Clinton’s ultraliberal, completely uninhibited, unchallenged and for all practical purposes omnipotent regime? If something happens to her we will see Chealsea on the white house at 2020.

    Most people here have bet on Trump winning that they have not made any contingency plans, and it will hurt soon.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @colm

    Clinton's presidency will be exactly like Obama's but with a higher chance of WWIII. No additional contingency plans are necessary.

    At some point, far in the future, the insanity will pass a threshold forcing sane whites to respond. But we are nowhere near that now.

  10. Off-topic,

    Seems that horror movies have found a new monster: White people. Bet you never really appreciated just how scary lacrosse is before….

    Get Out, written and directed by Jordan Peele (of Key and Peele fame)

    • Replies: @bomag
    @syonredux


    written and directed by Jordan Peele
     
    Wow, just wow.
  11. I think there’s something to a paradox arising from technology aimed at making cars more comfortable and safer. In the aggregate it seems to encourage carelessness and inattentiveness before accounting for texting.

    I drive a manual, which occupies both feet and hands so it’s natural to be more engaged with the vehicle. I’ve been looking around, and I think only Jaguar still offers cars with standard manual transmissions which aren’t a special order and upcharge. Everything else seems to be computerized double-clutch which I am told is “faster and more accurate than any human.” I’ve tried driving flappy paddle cars but couldn’t get the hang of it. I guess I’m going to have to give in to the technology. On the rare occasions that I drive someone else’s automatic, I still depress a phantom clutch when braking.

    As to cars generally, I think before I pointed out that traffic deaths sort of mirror the urban crime wave, which indicates to me that white flight refugees fled urban violence into the maw of catastrophic traffic deaths.

    • Replies: @bomag
    @Alec Leamas


    In the aggregate it seems to encourage carelessness and inattentiveness before accounting for texting.
     
    This falls under the category of "hedonic adjustment": when you make cars safer, people tend to drive more carelessly; when you put in wheel chair ramps etc, it signals people that they can take more chances and not suffer as great of consequences as before.

    Replies: @Bill

  12. @Lugash
    I think we'd need to see whats happening in the Usual Suspect Cities(Chicago, Baltimore, etc) to make any sort of reasonable guess. There are too many other factors, like drivers distracted by their smartphones as well.

    Edit: Breaking down traffic deaths by race would be instructive as well.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas

    Isn’t Steve’s point not that something has happened in the riotous cities specifically, but rather that all cops are somewhat leery about being the next instantly famous white cop (or white Hispanic cop, white Asian cop, white black cop) and therefore less aggressive in policing traffic violations? (Cops are taught that this is the most dangerous transaction for police leading to the most LEO deaths).

    • Replies: @Lugash
    @Alec Leamas

    I don't see if happening nationally. Traffic violations bring in dollars and give police supervisors a crude metric to make sure their rank and file aren't slacking off. Seeing how much of the increase is in the Usual Cities would be pretty informative.

  13. Apparently it is now a thing to use cars in hood fights.

    E.g.:

    There are countless other examples. Just search for “fight run over” in Youtube.

  14. @stillCARealist
    Increasing drug use, both legal and illegal.

    Increasing texting and facebook use. I see a lawsuit looming. Attractive nuisance. Also the instrument panels for new cars are too captivating.

    How are the numbers moving for speeding tickets and reckless driving tickets? Up or down?

    Replies: @Ivy, @Ivy, @Alfa158

    Texting drivers may be observed at any stoplight. Just look for the telltale head bob. If you want to get a different perspective on the risks of those sharing the road with you, try the following: stand at a corner for 10 minutes to see how many people are texting as they drive by, or as they turn the corner, or brake to a stop. The results should startle you.

    • Replies: @Lurker
    @Ivy

    I suspect there is some correlation between texters/phoners having accidents and the people who would have been careless anyway even if the phones didnt exist.

  15. @stillCARealist
    Increasing drug use, both legal and illegal.

    Increasing texting and facebook use. I see a lawsuit looming. Attractive nuisance. Also the instrument panels for new cars are too captivating.

    How are the numbers moving for speeding tickets and reckless driving tickets? Up or down?

    Replies: @Ivy, @Ivy, @Alfa158

    Texting drivers may be observed at any stoplight. Just look for the telltale head bob. If you want to get a different perspective on the risks of those sharing the road with you, try the following: stand at a corner for 10 minutes to see how many people are texting as they drive by, or as they turn the corner, or brake to a stop. The results should startle you.

    • Replies: @Lugash
    @Ivy

    I can tell if someone's using a cell phone while driving just by watching the car, and not just with the horrible ones.

  16. @anon930
    https://twitter.com/UrduDervish/status/784154874682417153

    Dear God,
    Please help us.

    Replies: @AndrewR, @AndrewR, @Lot

    That which cannot go on forever won’t go on forever.

  17. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Drivers have less accidents with age. Up to a point. And then, they get worse.

    You really need to break it down by demographic, time of day, vehicle, etc.

    As odd as it might sound, commuting is as safe as it gets in terms of fatalities per mile. With the increase in telecommuting, a greater percentage of miles driven might be non commuting miles and hence more dangerous.

    The latest generation of cars are amazingly crashworthy. However, since 2000, reliability has increased to the extent that the average age of cars on the road is 11.5 years.

    This is serious because the baseline expectation would be a continual improvement with technology. When you drill down, I think you will find the usual suspects.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @Anon


    As odd as it might sound, commuting is as safe as it gets in terms of fatalities per mile.
     
    That does sound odd. Link?
  18. “And they have no peripheral vision.” My observations in Queensland made me wonder about that. I once asked some colleagues whether anyone knew if it could be true that Chinese had inferior peripheral vision. I got one reply about myopia and one accusation of racism. Oh, and one bloke turned out not to know what “peripheral vision” meant. He was the one who shouted “racism”.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @dearieme

    Protruding eyes help some athletes have better peripheral vision. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, besides being 7'2" had bulging eyes, so he wore goggles to keep them from getting scratched so much.

    Replies: @Ivy

    , @Bill P
    @dearieme

    My grandpa was on a WWII bomber crew, and he said the "Asians don't have good peripheral vision" idea was thoroughly discredited by our pilots' accounts of their performance in the Pacific theater.

    Replies: @rob

  19. IIRC, one of the lost commenters argued that it would be safer for a drunk to drive home than to walk home. Safer for that drunk, I suppose, rather than safer for other people.

  20. Couldn’t be the kids, because they don’t drive nearly as much as my generation used to twenty years ago when we were their age. Maybe it’s a combo of more foreign and more really old drivers. Some of the elderly people I’ve seen at the DOL clearly shouldn’t be behind the wheel of a car. I had to go pick up another endorsement at the local DOL today and one old timer couldn’t even understand the instructions the clerk was giving him concerning the peripheral vision test. Or maybe he was just pretending in order to try to get out of the test. Either way…

  21. @anon930
    https://twitter.com/UrduDervish/status/784154874682417153

    Dear God,
    Please help us.

    Replies: @AndrewR, @AndrewR, @Lot

    So I just did a quick estimate:

    UM has approximately 43,000 students

    80m / 5 years / 43k students = about $370/student/year.

    Probably not all of this will come out of tuition, but this is still a lot of money. More than many people make after taxes in a week. And that’s not including interest on the loans and the opportunity costs. Talk about a racket. I wouldn’t pay a cent to send my kids to this school and I would strongly advise them to consider other options. Time to Just Say No to the university racket.

  22. @dearieme
    "And they have no peripheral vision." My observations in Queensland made me wonder about that. I once asked some colleagues whether anyone knew if it could be true that Chinese had inferior peripheral vision. I got one reply about myopia and one accusation of racism. Oh, and one bloke turned out not to know what "peripheral vision" meant. He was the one who shouted "racism".

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Bill P

    Protruding eyes help some athletes have better peripheral vision. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, besides being 7’2″ had bulging eyes, so he wore goggles to keep them from getting scratched so much.

    • Replies: @Ivy
    @Steve Sailer

    Protruding eyes, or what some kids called bug eyes (eyes bugging out of their head) may be a sign of hyperthyroidism, in addition to the abrasion risk.

  23. @Jean Cocteausten
    I wonder how many people have been killed due to the new fad of urban youth dirt bike gangs riding wheelies up and down city streets at 60 mph? I've seen it in two cities but there's hardly any reporting on it and the cops seem uninterested in controlling it.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    That could be a factor.

    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @Steve Sailer


    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970.
     
    I have never seen a gang of youth on dirt bikes in San Diego, but every once in a while I see a lone broken-down looking middle aged man on one riding on city streets (or illegally on bike paths), about 50/50 white or hispanic.

    Replies: @Lurker

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Steve Sailer


    the new fad of urban youth dirt bike gangs riding wheelies up and down city streets at 60 mph

    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970
     

     
    So in 20 years, we'll see urban youth Segway gangs?
  24. I would look at gas prices and the overall economy. These researchers seem to agree: https://today.tamu.edu/2016/01/21/how-does-the-economy-affect-traffic-fatalities/

  25. @anon930
    https://twitter.com/UrduDervish/status/784154874682417153

    Dear God,
    Please help us.

    Replies: @AndrewR, @AndrewR, @Lot

    U of M no longer has affirmative action thanks to Ward Connerly’s activism, and the three URM groups collectively are about 10% of the student body, making it one of the least URM prestigious colleges in the USA.

    The $85 million in diversity programs cost is probably dwarfed by the amount of money U of M saves not having AA given the savings from fewer remedial classes and less campus crime.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @Lot

    Well that and the US Supreme Court case in which my father's late best friend's son was co-plaintiff.

    Replies: @Lot

  26. @Alec Leamas
    @Lugash

    Isn't Steve's point not that something has happened in the riotous cities specifically, but rather that all cops are somewhat leery about being the next instantly famous white cop (or white Hispanic cop, white Asian cop, white black cop) and therefore less aggressive in policing traffic violations? (Cops are taught that this is the most dangerous transaction for police leading to the most LEO deaths).

    Replies: @Lugash

    I don’t see if happening nationally. Traffic violations bring in dollars and give police supervisors a crude metric to make sure their rank and file aren’t slacking off. Seeing how much of the increase is in the Usual Cities would be pretty informative.

  27. @Steve Sailer
    @Jean Cocteausten

    That could be a factor.

    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar

    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970.

    I have never seen a gang of youth on dirt bikes in San Diego, but every once in a while I see a lone broken-down looking middle aged man on one riding on city streets (or illegally on bike paths), about 50/50 white or hispanic.

    • Replies: @Lurker
    @Lot


    but every once in a while I see a lone broken-down looking middle aged man on one riding on city streets (or illegally on bike paths), about 50/50 white or hispanic.
     
    The same guy every time or a succession of a type?

    Replies: @Lot

  28. @stillCARealist
    Increasing drug use, both legal and illegal.

    Increasing texting and facebook use. I see a lawsuit looming. Attractive nuisance. Also the instrument panels for new cars are too captivating.

    How are the numbers moving for speeding tickets and reckless driving tickets? Up or down?

    Replies: @Ivy, @Ivy, @Alfa158

    I think a lot of it is what you said. Additionally:
    – Teenagers grow up playing auto related video games with crazy dynamics, switch over to real cars with real physics and wipe them out. An alarming percentage of teenagers I know wreck a car shortly after getting their license, even relatively serious responsible kids. I don’t remember that from when I was in that age cohort.
    – Huge immigrant population with poor driving habits, or driving for the first time. Hispanic men in particular seem to regard driving after 10 cervezas to be perfectly normal.
    – Compared to the cars I drove 40 years ago, cars today have startling levels of acceleration and cornering. They are just generally moving way faster than they used to and the traction and braking improvements can’t always offset the sheer speed so it is easier to get in trouble. I have been a car nut all my life and still have car magazines with instrumented road test articles from the mid ’60’s. A Toyota Camry V6 has the same quarter mile elapsed time as a 1965 Pontiac GTO with a 389, triple carbs, and a close ratio 4 speed. The only difference is that if they stay on it past the traps, the Toyota will pull away on top speed and disappear into the distance. In SoCal, when you find a stretch of freeway that is open, 85 seems to be the standard speed.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @Alfa158


    In SoCal, when you find a stretch of freeway that is open, 85 seems to be the standard speed.
     
    One of the many things I love about this state. We have the fasted traffic flow in urban areas and an extremely strong state-law against speed traps.

    The OC Toll Road through the coastal hills is a dream to drive, well maintained and perfectly safe going 85-90 and virtually no speed enforcement. The double decker section of the 110 is also really fun, the combination of going 90 and being 50-100 feet into the air is the closest thing to flying a plane I will get without pilot lessons.
    , @Anon
    @Alfa158

    The cars of my youth were big, massive Chevys and Fords that handled like boats, and they had huge chrome bumpers and a ton of room inside. In an accident, they were damned tough, and had lot of natural crumple zone, and they didn't fall apart as easily as today's cars. If you want to survive an accident, that's important. In 2016, cars fall apart like tinkertoys because their weak frames and plastic bodies. There's a point beyond which modern cars simply don't survive accidents, and neither do their drivers.

    Replies: @Bill

    , @PiltdownMan
    @Alfa158

    Never mind a 1965 GTO. By the early 1980s, performance in passenger cars had declined so much that doing zero to sixty in eight seconds was something only expensive, mostly foreign sports cars could accomplish. Regular middle-class family sedans could barely accelerate to 60 mph in 12 seconds.

    Today, almost all passenger cars with an engine uprated from the no-frills base model can do accelerate like the sports cars of 35 years ago, including most mom SUVs in the suburbs.

    It's a recipe for trouble, even if the brakes are much better. In fact, people depend on the brakes to get them out of trouble. I can remember a time when you couldn't depend on the brakes to get you out of trouble in time, or without causing a hard to correct skid in emergency use.

  29. @mp
    It's cell phones, mostly. And people who've never learned how to drive defensively. Or learned to drive at all.

    Around here, a lot of Islanders (actually Puerto Ricans-what was the white man thinking when he annexed that hell hole?) are in to the hit and run. Driving beat up unregistered and uninsured junkers, they don't care if they run in to something, or someone. Why should they? The cops don't care, either. They have bigger fish to fry dealing with assaults and murders.

    A lot of talk about East Asian women driving badly. They are not so much bad drivers as they are overly cautious--which translates to weird driving habits. And they have no peripheral vision. Look straight ahead, and hope for the best.

    In order to decrease red light running accidents, DOT elongates the signal change. People know it, so they just run the red, figuring that the adjacent green won't come on for a few seconds--enough for them to get across the intersection. Or cities shorten the yellow in order to make some fast "camera" money. It's all insane. If I was a cop, I'd be hanging out at Dolly's Do-nuts, too.

    Replies: @Lot, @AndrewR

    A lot of talk about East Asian women driving badly. They are not so much bad drivers as they are overly cautious–which translates to weird driving habits. And they have no peripheral vision. Look straight ahead, and hope for the best.

    Asian american drivers seem fine, and asian immigrant ones are a little erratic and more likely to cause a fender bender in a parking lot, but I doubt cause many highway deaths.

    • Replies: @Alec Leamas
    @Lot

    You'd be surprised. Asian lady in a minivan doing 48 at rush hour is going to cause other drivers to drive differently.

    Also, I think any time I've seen someone make a left turn out of the far right lane on a four lane road it's been an Asian lady.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    , @Foreign Expert
    @Lot

    Thai women drive well.

    , @Brutusale
    @Lot

    The only major accident I was ever involved in was due to a carload of recent Chinese immigrants driving in the left lane of Route 128. When they came over a rise, the setting sun took the driver by surprise, and he hit the brakes, causing a chain reaction that claimed 9 cars. I got rear-ended so hard that my seat snapped off the base.

    As Andrew "Dice" Clay said, it's not the best idea to give a driver's license to people you can blindfold with dental floss.

    IMHO, our friends from the East are also the cause of the uptick in pedestrian deaths. The city I lived in during the 90s was experiencing a wave of Chinese immigrants, and they were wandering into traffic and being struck on a fairly regular basis. Mix in the Latinos with no compunctions about driving after drinking 12 beers, and I'm surprised the carnage isn't worse.

  30. @Ivy
    @stillCARealist

    Texting drivers may be observed at any stoplight. Just look for the telltale head bob. If you want to get a different perspective on the risks of those sharing the road with you, try the following: stand at a corner for 10 minutes to see how many people are texting as they drive by, or as they turn the corner, or brake to a stop. The results should startle you.

    Replies: @Lugash

    I can tell if someone’s using a cell phone while driving just by watching the car, and not just with the horrible ones.

  31. @Alfa158
    @stillCARealist

    I think a lot of it is what you said. Additionally:
    - Teenagers grow up playing auto related video games with crazy dynamics, switch over to real cars with real physics and wipe them out. An alarming percentage of teenagers I know wreck a car shortly after getting their license, even relatively serious responsible kids. I don't remember that from when I was in that age cohort.
    - Huge immigrant population with poor driving habits, or driving for the first time. Hispanic men in particular seem to regard driving after 10 cervezas to be perfectly normal.
    - Compared to the cars I drove 40 years ago, cars today have startling levels of acceleration and cornering. They are just generally moving way faster than they used to and the traction and braking improvements can't always offset the sheer speed so it is easier to get in trouble. I have been a car nut all my life and still have car magazines with instrumented road test articles from the mid '60's. A Toyota Camry V6 has the same quarter mile elapsed time as a 1965 Pontiac GTO with a 389, triple carbs, and a close ratio 4 speed. The only difference is that if they stay on it past the traps, the Toyota will pull away on top speed and disappear into the distance. In SoCal, when you find a stretch of freeway that is open, 85 seems to be the standard speed.

    Replies: @Lot, @Anon, @PiltdownMan

    In SoCal, when you find a stretch of freeway that is open, 85 seems to be the standard speed.

    One of the many things I love about this state. We have the fasted traffic flow in urban areas and an extremely strong state-law against speed traps.

    The OC Toll Road through the coastal hills is a dream to drive, well maintained and perfectly safe going 85-90 and virtually no speed enforcement. The double decker section of the 110 is also really fun, the combination of going 90 and being 50-100 feet into the air is the closest thing to flying a plane I will get without pilot lessons.

  32. I agree with Steve that there are currently an excess of illegal immigrants and other marginal drivers on the road. To put it crudely, there are just too darn many people living in our cities and using the infrastructure, and the city cannot realistically scale up to keep pace with the vertical packing of humanity. This creates all kinds of complications, traffic deaths being one of them. But there is another factor involved that is probably of even greater relative significance.

    The subprime auto bubble.

    Most of these illegal immigrants, welfare queens, marginally employed lowlifes, young skulls full of mush, and the other assorted riffraff of a decadent modern civilization, ought not to be driving at all because they cannot really afford the car. They have been extended credit on fantastically easy terms—as witnessed by the birth of the 72 month, zero down, 130% LTV auto loan for those with a 530 FICO score—in order so that the underwriting banks can bundle the loans into churnable collateral and the bailed-out auto manufactures can continue to channel-stuff the dealerships with inventory that wouldn’t otherwise sell. It’s Dodd-Frank and the housing crisis all over again.

    Without these massive market distortions, the kind of people who could legitimately afford a car and the kind of people who are responsible enough to be driving around in the first place, would be more closely aligned sets. Way back in June I wrote a comment along these lines on another iSteve article which never made it out of the moderation queue. I would like to try reposting it now, since I believe it is rather pertinent. To wit:

    ~~~

    Interesting point re: the roads not being able to handle the traffic. What very few people seem to realize is that one of the downstream effects of unchecked immigration is a badly overstessed infrastructure. It is a subject that inhabits the intersection of engineering, economics, and philosophy and is thus very near and dear to my heart; consequently, I devote a great deal of thought to it.

    The relative overpopulation of urban areas with migrant scab laborers is the result of the elites deliberately exceeding the relative carrying capacity of the natural economy. I would estimate that America’s real economy is large enough to support about 250 million people in the normal, civilized, and class-stratified mode of life to which we used to be accustomed. The “extra people” afforded by migration have no legitimate social or economic role to play in our nation. They exist as slaves to the elites, and without them the elites would not be able to maintain their incredible wealth-absorbing power. There is a place in the nation’s natural order for the rich and even for the very rich (i.e. to manage the vital capital flows and act as overseers for the macroeconomy); but there is no justification for today’s ultra-rich, who are in one way or another simply parasites strip-mining the capital out of the social order. These oligarchs use the imported slave labor to hollow out the wealth of the nation and to oppress its middle class, which fact also explains their policy positions. They jealously guard their slaves against reprisals from the natives and distort both law and morality to protect their human property. With their thumbs thus on the scale, they are able to extract more than their due from the economy. We’ve all seen the statistic that states that the ratio of CEO pay to average worker pay in the 1970s was 25:1 (which seems about right) while today it is more like 400:1. That wholly unearned and unmerited difference was stolen from the middle class by the oligarchs through various means of financial repression, including demographic overloading.

    The effects of this relative overpopulation show themselves not only in widening wealth gaps and declining (in real, inflation -adjusted terms) middle class wages, but also in badly stressed infrastructure, which is both over-utilized and under-maintained. It’s as if the roads, schools, hospitals, power lines, and water pipes of a city were like a network of tissues holding it together, and now that net is sagging beneath the weight of an oversized load. One of the most visible points of stress, readily apparent to the ordinary citizen, is increased automobile traffic.

    The traffic in my city, as in most American cities, is infuriating—a condition exacerbated by the deteriorating quality of the roads. It ought to be a major selling point for the Trump deportation plan. Once 10-12 million illegal immigrants are no longer in the country, that will mean several million fewer cars on the road. The difference made in fewer traffic jams and shorter commute times should be readily and pleasantly observable. The difficulty lies in getting people to connect the dots between illegal immigration and being stuck in traffic, and there are some logical intermediaries along the way that might involve them in painful cognitive dissonance.

    First, they must recognize that driving is a privilege not a right, and it is also something of a luxury. If you’re going to drive a car, you should probably be an important person and should probably be about some necessary business. Not just anybody should think that they are entitled to drive a car anytime, anywhere they want to go, for any reason. Apart from the attainment of a state-issued driver’s license (which ought to be made harder to get) one of the chief qualifiers of possessing the right to drive should be the ability to afford a car on honest terms (i.e. the subprime auto loan bubble needs to be popped right away). A society of responsible drivers ought to also possess a decent respect for the nation’s roadways and of the capital and expertise necessary to maintain them, and paid for by taxes on their income. The upkeep and proper use of the nation’s roadways is a legitimate political concern and ought to form part of the official business at meetings of the “polity” (i.e. town councils and whatnot). The very idea of illegal immigrants driving on “our roads” ought to arouse a sense of outrage. The road is for the use of those who paid for it and built it; for the use of the polity, not those who are destroying the polity. Jealously guarded driving privileges, jealously guarded roads, are but a small example of the many attitudinal shifts that will have to take place before we can take our country back.

    No doubt this attitude will seem extreme and fascistic to some, but that is because we have lived for so long in a condition of moral laxity, not guarding what was our own nor thinking in terms of virtue ethics as a polity. But for those who balk at the notion, I would venture to point out that it is nothing more than a description of plain and simple reality. Roads are scarce; somebody has to pay for them, somebody has to build them, and their capacity to be used is not infinite. They are thus the political property of those who create them and are not to be used by just anybody, especially by illegal migrant scabs.

    It is a noble and manly habit to view all things in this way. It engenders the virile desire for order, for rank, for strict standards, and for the punishment of lawbreakers. This is what it means to think politically. Without this, nothing strong or beautiful can exist.

    • Agree: Bill
    • Replies: @Lurker
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Excellent points and applicable to so many other aspects of the immigration disaster.

    , @bomag
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Wonderful comment.

    I think of it as roads being the collective property of the nation, but our rulers are giving the nation's property away to foreigners out of malice and spite.

    , @Lot
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Preach on brother!

    Jason Richwine has some great statistics on these issues, and Hans Hermann-Hoppe has a more abstract and philosophical defense of low human capital immigration.

  33. @syonredux
    Off-topic,

    Seems that horror movies have found a new monster: White people. Bet you never really appreciated just how scary lacrosse is before....


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzfpyUB60YY


    Get Out, written and directed by Jordan Peele (of Key and Peele fame)

    Replies: @bomag

    written and directed by Jordan Peele

    Wow, just wow.

  34. The FBI provides annual crime statistics about cities of population from 10,000 to 25,000. Crime rates for such-size cities were stable during the three-year period 2013-2015.

    For such-size cities, the crime rates (incident per 100,000 residents) included the following stable crime rates:

    Violent Crimes
    In 2013 = 269
    In 2014 = 264
    In 2015 = 270

    Robberies
    In 2013 = 60
    In 2014 = 56
    In 2015 = 55

    Aggravated Assaults
    In 2013 = 177
    In 2014 = 176
    In 2015 = 180

    Motor Vehicle Thefts
    In 2013 = 135
    In 2014 = 129
    In 2015 = 131

    For Ferguson — where Police Officer Darren Wilson was falsely accused of murdering strong-arm robber Michael Brown in August 2014 — and which has a population of about 21,000 — the crime rates rose as follows:

    Violent Crimes
    In 2013 = 478
    In 2014 = 545
    In 2015 = 902

    Robberies
    In 2013 = 256
    In 2014 = 242
    In 2015 = 389

    Aggravated Assaults
    In 2013 = 199
    In 2014 = 284
    In 2015 = 451

    Motor Vehicle Thefts
    In 2013 = 365
    In 2014 = 346
    In 2015 = 565

    I have provided more details in my blog’s recent article, titled “Crime rates rose significantly in Ferguson during 2014-2015”.

    http://people-who-did-not-see.blogspot.com/2016/10/crime-rates-rose-significantly-in.html

  35. @Lot
    @mp


    A lot of talk about East Asian women driving badly. They are not so much bad drivers as they are overly cautious–which translates to weird driving habits. And they have no peripheral vision. Look straight ahead, and hope for the best.
     
    Asian american drivers seem fine, and asian immigrant ones are a little erratic and more likely to cause a fender bender in a parking lot, but I doubt cause many highway deaths.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas, @Foreign Expert, @Brutusale

    You’d be surprised. Asian lady in a minivan doing 48 at rush hour is going to cause other drivers to drive differently.

    Also, I think any time I’ve seen someone make a left turn out of the far right lane on a four lane road it’s been an Asian lady.

    • Replies: @PiltdownMan
    @Alec Leamas

    An observation from having driven in East Asia is that it is nearly impossible to merge into another lane at speed, because drivers rarely yield. They speed up to close any gap in front of them in their lane, making it very hard to slip in from an adjoining lane.

    I used to think this was just a result of poor driver education and driving habits, but a Chinese colleague said his personal theory was that it was an almost subconscious loss of face issue that made Chinese drivers do this, and thus an ingrained cultural habit. Presumably the same hold for turns out of the far lane, sort of a "I'm turning, don't make me lose face by cutting me off!" mentality.

  36. Since the Obama Administration failed to prove that Ferguson’s police officers were racist murderers, it proved instead that Ferguson’s enforcement of traffic laws was racist.

    In general, Scientific Progressives argue that Blacks everywhere in the USA are ticketed for “driving while Black”.

    Since Blacks vote more than 90% for the Obama Administration, they deserve some political rewards. One such reward is that if a Black is killed by a While police officer in some city, then the Federal Government will coerce that city to forgive all traffic tickets issued to Blacks and to refrain from issuing more traffic tickets to Blacks.

  37. @dearieme
    "And they have no peripheral vision." My observations in Queensland made me wonder about that. I once asked some colleagues whether anyone knew if it could be true that Chinese had inferior peripheral vision. I got one reply about myopia and one accusation of racism. Oh, and one bloke turned out not to know what "peripheral vision" meant. He was the one who shouted "racism".

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Bill P

    My grandpa was on a WWII bomber crew, and he said the “Asians don’t have good peripheral vision” idea was thoroughly discredited by our pilots’ accounts of their performance in the Pacific theater.

    • Replies: @rob
    @Bill P

    Endogamous warrior elite pilots compared to peasant and merchant-descended drivers?

  38. @Lot
    @anon930

    U of M no longer has affirmative action thanks to Ward Connerly's activism, and the three URM groups collectively are about 10% of the student body, making it one of the least URM prestigious colleges in the USA.

    The $85 million in diversity programs cost is probably dwarfed by the amount of money U of M saves not having AA given the savings from fewer remedial classes and less campus crime.

    Replies: @AndrewR

    Well that and the US Supreme Court case in which my father’s late best friend’s son was co-plaintiff.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @AndrewR


    Well that and the US Supreme Court case in which my father’s late best friend’s son was co-plaintiff.
     
    It was actually the ballot initiative more than the SC case. U of M's undergraduate admissions had a system where they made most decisions based on a numerical formula based on grades, AP classes, and SAT scores, and NAMs simply used a different scale. So a white or asian with a 660 score would be automatically rejected and a black would be automatically admitted.

    That got struck down, but it is trivially simple to do basically the same thing indirectly, which is exactly what most selective colleges do.

    The MCRI simply prohibited using race as a factor at all, which is why U of M is ~10% NAM while Harvard is 28.9% NAM.

    I'm sorry to say that every college affirmative action case to go to the Supreme Court has been a victory for affirmative action, no matter if happens to strike down a particular AA program, because every single case has has reaffirmed that racial diversity is a "compelling state interest" that can justify discrimination against whites and asians.

    Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson

  39. If increased traffic deaths were the result of smart phones I’d expect a more consistent rise from circa 2008 to now, not a sudden jump in 2015.

    The overall death rate from millions of miles travelled is still mostly going down. Its 1.12 vs 1.46 back in 2005.

    The biggest increases seem to be in the NW (+20%) and Southeast (+14%, on a larger population). The central states were up 7%, the Upper Midwest up 9%, and New England up 10%. So it doesn’t seem to be #BLM-related and I can’t see an obvious racial angle, such as more Hispanic drunk drivers. The death increases are more common in pedestrians and motorcyclists, but that may just be an artifact of better safety equipment in cars–a car hits a pedestrian in an accident, and the driver is saved by an airbag but the pedestrian is out of luck because pedestrians don’t get better safety equipment over time. I can’t find stats on drunk driving deaths in 2015. Maybe marijuana-impaired traffic deaths are up? A number of states have more or less legalized it.

  40. @Steve Sailer
    @dearieme

    Protruding eyes help some athletes have better peripheral vision. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, besides being 7'2" had bulging eyes, so he wore goggles to keep them from getting scratched so much.

    Replies: @Ivy

    Protruding eyes, or what some kids called bug eyes (eyes bugging out of their head) may be a sign of hyperthyroidism, in addition to the abrasion risk.

  41. @Lot
    @mp


    A lot of talk about East Asian women driving badly. They are not so much bad drivers as they are overly cautious–which translates to weird driving habits. And they have no peripheral vision. Look straight ahead, and hope for the best.
     
    Asian american drivers seem fine, and asian immigrant ones are a little erratic and more likely to cause a fender bender in a parking lot, but I doubt cause many highway deaths.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas, @Foreign Expert, @Brutusale

    Thai women drive well.

  42. Well a 10% increase in traffic fatalities over the last year must definitely be due to smartphones, because no one in the country had a smartphone until January 2016. /sarc

    A 10% rise in fatalities is pretty huge. It’s either some really new reason – so therefore not “people looking at their phones” – or several factors moving in the same direction.

    I’d guess a younger population, a rising number of immigrants (note that immigration + anchor babies soared during the late Clinton and early Bush years – a lot of immigrant kids are now of driving age), a larger quantity of small fuel efficient cars, more people moving to states with higher fatality rates (the Mountain West has very high fatality rates), cops slacking off and tolerating crazier driving, more drivers on road due to higher employment, more crowded roads due to declining spending on roads, etc.

    A 3.3% increase in miles driven isn’t spread evenly across the country or at all times of day, so some roads will be a lot more crowded than they were before.

    It definitely doesn’t help that the Obama Administration has decided to harass local police departments. A breakdown of the data by city and state would be nice to have.

  43. Murder rates = Up
    Traffic Fatality rates = Up
    White Suicide rates = Up

    Oh, these glorious Obama years…

  44. @Alec Leamas
    @Lot

    You'd be surprised. Asian lady in a minivan doing 48 at rush hour is going to cause other drivers to drive differently.

    Also, I think any time I've seen someone make a left turn out of the far right lane on a four lane road it's been an Asian lady.

    Replies: @PiltdownMan

    An observation from having driven in East Asia is that it is nearly impossible to merge into another lane at speed, because drivers rarely yield. They speed up to close any gap in front of them in their lane, making it very hard to slip in from an adjoining lane.

    I used to think this was just a result of poor driver education and driving habits, but a Chinese colleague said his personal theory was that it was an almost subconscious loss of face issue that made Chinese drivers do this, and thus an ingrained cultural habit. Presumably the same hold for turns out of the far lane, sort of a “I’m turning, don’t make me lose face by cutting me off!” mentality.

  45. Here’s another hypothesis: perhaps the rapid spread of high tech safety devices into new mass market cars, like backup cameras and blind spot detection and lane changing warning signals is, perversely, getting more people killed? I sure hope not, because this technology seems like it ought to be a real boon to humanity, but it’s not unknown for reforms to have unwanted effects.

    This has been an intense topic of conversation among civil aviation pilots with the advent of sophisticated autopilots and fly-by-wire controls with some level of decision making capability built into them. The suspicion is that autopilot capability which lowers the decision making load on and fatigue among pilots in normal, uneventful flight, also lowers situational awareness and dulls reflexes—to the point where pilots make wrong decisions when thrown suddenly into emergency situations. Startled, they tend to work at cross-purposes with all the automation, thus precipitating disaster.

    In particular, there was a lot of talk of this a few years ago when Air France flight 442 plunged into the mid-Atlantic Ocean when skirting around a thundercloud, but it comes up every time there is an unexplained air disaster in seemingly uneventful level flight.

    • Replies: @Anonymous Nephew
    @PiltdownMan

    Not necessarily fly-by-wire related, but tangentially relevant


    "Mum-of-two Donna Bull, 53, died of multiple injuries when the 23-year-old Boeing 727 she was travelling in nosedived and smashed into a runway at 450mph.

    All 50 people died in the accident which was caused after the untrained captain misjudged a physical sensation known as an somatogyral illusion.

    This happens when a pilot thinks a plane is accelerating upwards when in fact it is going forwards.

    Pilots are taught how to deal with this common problem in basic training."
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensory_illusions_in_aviation

    http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/548796/British-passenger-Donna-Bull-russian-russia-plane-crash-coroner-unlawful-death
  46. @AndrewR
    @Lot

    Well that and the US Supreme Court case in which my father's late best friend's son was co-plaintiff.

    Replies: @Lot

    Well that and the US Supreme Court case in which my father’s late best friend’s son was co-plaintiff.

    It was actually the ballot initiative more than the SC case. U of M’s undergraduate admissions had a system where they made most decisions based on a numerical formula based on grades, AP classes, and SAT scores, and NAMs simply used a different scale. So a white or asian with a 660 score would be automatically rejected and a black would be automatically admitted.

    That got struck down, but it is trivially simple to do basically the same thing indirectly, which is exactly what most selective colleges do.

    The MCRI simply prohibited using race as a factor at all, which is why U of M is ~10% NAM while Harvard is 28.9% NAM.

    I’m sorry to say that every college affirmative action case to go to the Supreme Court has been a victory for affirmative action, no matter if happens to strike down a particular AA program, because every single case has has reaffirmed that racial diversity is a “compelling state interest” that can justify discrimination against whites and asians.

    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson
    @Lot


    every single case has has reaffirmed that racial diversity is a “compelling state interest” that can justify discrimination against whites and Asians.
     
    Diversity is a dirty job, but somebody has to do it. Paging Tim Wise, have you fanned the flames of racial animus sufficiently to meet your hatred quota for today?
  47. Seems to me that a lot more people travel in convoys on the interstate than in the past. And these same people like to pull over together on the shoulder to stretch and socialize, maybe change a diaper. That can be deadly.

  48. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Alfa158
    @stillCARealist

    I think a lot of it is what you said. Additionally:
    - Teenagers grow up playing auto related video games with crazy dynamics, switch over to real cars with real physics and wipe them out. An alarming percentage of teenagers I know wreck a car shortly after getting their license, even relatively serious responsible kids. I don't remember that from when I was in that age cohort.
    - Huge immigrant population with poor driving habits, or driving for the first time. Hispanic men in particular seem to regard driving after 10 cervezas to be perfectly normal.
    - Compared to the cars I drove 40 years ago, cars today have startling levels of acceleration and cornering. They are just generally moving way faster than they used to and the traction and braking improvements can't always offset the sheer speed so it is easier to get in trouble. I have been a car nut all my life and still have car magazines with instrumented road test articles from the mid '60's. A Toyota Camry V6 has the same quarter mile elapsed time as a 1965 Pontiac GTO with a 389, triple carbs, and a close ratio 4 speed. The only difference is that if they stay on it past the traps, the Toyota will pull away on top speed and disappear into the distance. In SoCal, when you find a stretch of freeway that is open, 85 seems to be the standard speed.

    Replies: @Lot, @Anon, @PiltdownMan

    The cars of my youth were big, massive Chevys and Fords that handled like boats, and they had huge chrome bumpers and a ton of room inside. In an accident, they were damned tough, and had lot of natural crumple zone, and they didn’t fall apart as easily as today’s cars. If you want to survive an accident, that’s important. In 2016, cars fall apart like tinkertoys because their weak frames and plastic bodies. There’s a point beyond which modern cars simply don’t survive accidents, and neither do their drivers.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @Anon

    Modern cars are so much safer than the things you could buy in, say, the 60s and 70s that there is no comparison. None at all.

  49. @Ivy
    @stillCARealist

    Texting drivers may be observed at any stoplight. Just look for the telltale head bob. If you want to get a different perspective on the risks of those sharing the road with you, try the following: stand at a corner for 10 minutes to see how many people are texting as they drive by, or as they turn the corner, or brake to a stop. The results should startle you.

    Replies: @Lurker

    I suspect there is some correlation between texters/phoners having accidents and the people who would have been careless anyway even if the phones didnt exist.

    • Agree: AndrewR
  50. @Lot
    @Steve Sailer


    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970.
     
    I have never seen a gang of youth on dirt bikes in San Diego, but every once in a while I see a lone broken-down looking middle aged man on one riding on city streets (or illegally on bike paths), about 50/50 white or hispanic.

    Replies: @Lurker

    but every once in a while I see a lone broken-down looking middle aged man on one riding on city streets (or illegally on bike paths), about 50/50 white or hispanic.

    The same guy every time or a succession of a type?

    • Replies: @Lot
    @Lurker

    Different guys, I meant about half the time the guy is white and half the time hispanic. Some of them I think have had their license taken away after too many DUIs. Or just one DUI without paying all the fines and court costs and mandatory driver ed classes.

  51. @Intelligent Dasein
    I agree with Steve that there are currently an excess of illegal immigrants and other marginal drivers on the road. To put it crudely, there are just too darn many people living in our cities and using the infrastructure, and the city cannot realistically scale up to keep pace with the vertical packing of humanity. This creates all kinds of complications, traffic deaths being one of them. But there is another factor involved that is probably of even greater relative significance.

    The subprime auto bubble.

    Most of these illegal immigrants, welfare queens, marginally employed lowlifes, young skulls full of mush, and the other assorted riffraff of a decadent modern civilization, ought not to be driving at all because they cannot really afford the car. They have been extended credit on fantastically easy terms---as witnessed by the birth of the 72 month, zero down, 130% LTV auto loan for those with a 530 FICO score---in order so that the underwriting banks can bundle the loans into churnable collateral and the bailed-out auto manufactures can continue to channel-stuff the dealerships with inventory that wouldn't otherwise sell. It's Dodd-Frank and the housing crisis all over again.

    Without these massive market distortions, the kind of people who could legitimately afford a car and the kind of people who are responsible enough to be driving around in the first place, would be more closely aligned sets. Way back in June I wrote a comment along these lines on another iSteve article which never made it out of the moderation queue. I would like to try reposting it now, since I believe it is rather pertinent. To wit:

    ~~~

    Interesting point re: the roads not being able to handle the traffic. What very few people seem to realize is that one of the downstream effects of unchecked immigration is a badly overstessed infrastructure. It is a subject that inhabits the intersection of engineering, economics, and philosophy and is thus very near and dear to my heart; consequently, I devote a great deal of thought to it.

    The relative overpopulation of urban areas with migrant scab laborers is the result of the elites deliberately exceeding the relative carrying capacity of the natural economy. I would estimate that America’s real economy is large enough to support about 250 million people in the normal, civilized, and class-stratified mode of life to which we used to be accustomed. The “extra people” afforded by migration have no legitimate social or economic role to play in our nation. They exist as slaves to the elites, and without them the elites would not be able to maintain their incredible wealth-absorbing power. There is a place in the nation’s natural order for the rich and even for the very rich (i.e. to manage the vital capital flows and act as overseers for the macroeconomy); but there is no justification for today’s ultra-rich, who are in one way or another simply parasites strip-mining the capital out of the social order. These oligarchs use the imported slave labor to hollow out the wealth of the nation and to oppress its middle class, which fact also explains their policy positions. They jealously guard their slaves against reprisals from the natives and distort both law and morality to protect their human property. With their thumbs thus on the scale, they are able to extract more than their due from the economy. We’ve all seen the statistic that states that the ratio of CEO pay to average worker pay in the 1970s was 25:1 (which seems about right) while today it is more like 400:1. That wholly unearned and unmerited difference was stolen from the middle class by the oligarchs through various means of financial repression, including demographic overloading.

    The effects of this relative overpopulation show themselves not only in widening wealth gaps and declining (in real, inflation -adjusted terms) middle class wages, but also in badly stressed infrastructure, which is both over-utilized and under-maintained. It’s as if the roads, schools, hospitals, power lines, and water pipes of a city were like a network of tissues holding it together, and now that net is sagging beneath the weight of an oversized load. One of the most visible points of stress, readily apparent to the ordinary citizen, is increased automobile traffic.

    The traffic in my city, as in most American cities, is infuriating—a condition exacerbated by the deteriorating quality of the roads. It ought to be a major selling point for the Trump deportation plan. Once 10-12 million illegal immigrants are no longer in the country, that will mean several million fewer cars on the road. The difference made in fewer traffic jams and shorter commute times should be readily and pleasantly observable. The difficulty lies in getting people to connect the dots between illegal immigration and being stuck in traffic, and there are some logical intermediaries along the way that might involve them in painful cognitive dissonance.

    First, they must recognize that driving is a privilege not a right, and it is also something of a luxury. If you’re going to drive a car, you should probably be an important person and should probably be about some necessary business. Not just anybody should think that they are entitled to drive a car anytime, anywhere they want to go, for any reason. Apart from the attainment of a state-issued driver’s license (which ought to be made harder to get) one of the chief qualifiers of possessing the right to drive should be the ability to afford a car on honest terms (i.e. the subprime auto loan bubble needs to be popped right away). A society of responsible drivers ought to also possess a decent respect for the nation’s roadways and of the capital and expertise necessary to maintain them, and paid for by taxes on their income. The upkeep and proper use of the nation’s roadways is a legitimate political concern and ought to form part of the official business at meetings of the “polity” (i.e. town councils and whatnot). The very idea of illegal immigrants driving on “our roads” ought to arouse a sense of outrage. The road is for the use of those who paid for it and built it; for the use of the polity, not those who are destroying the polity. Jealously guarded driving privileges, jealously guarded roads, are but a small example of the many attitudinal shifts that will have to take place before we can take our country back.

    No doubt this attitude will seem extreme and fascistic to some, but that is because we have lived for so long in a condition of moral laxity, not guarding what was our own nor thinking in terms of virtue ethics as a polity. But for those who balk at the notion, I would venture to point out that it is nothing more than a description of plain and simple reality. Roads are scarce; somebody has to pay for them, somebody has to build them, and their capacity to be used is not infinite. They are thus the political property of those who create them and are not to be used by just anybody, especially by illegal migrant scabs.

    It is a noble and manly habit to view all things in this way. It engenders the virile desire for order, for rank, for strict standards, and for the punishment of lawbreakers. This is what it means to think politically. Without this, nothing strong or beautiful can exist.

    Replies: @Lurker, @bomag, @Lot

    Excellent points and applicable to so many other aspects of the immigration disaster.

  52. @Bill P
    @dearieme

    My grandpa was on a WWII bomber crew, and he said the "Asians don't have good peripheral vision" idea was thoroughly discredited by our pilots' accounts of their performance in the Pacific theater.

    Replies: @rob

    Endogamous warrior elite pilots compared to peasant and merchant-descended drivers?

  53. @Steve Sailer
    @Jean Cocteausten

    That could be a factor.

    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970.

    Replies: @Lot, @Reg Cæsar

    the new fad of urban youth dirt bike gangs riding wheelies up and down city streets at 60 mph

    It seems kind of like a white people fad from 1970

    So in 20 years, we’ll see urban youth Segway gangs?

  54. @Alec Leamas
    I think there's something to a paradox arising from technology aimed at making cars more comfortable and safer. In the aggregate it seems to encourage carelessness and inattentiveness before accounting for texting.

    I drive a manual, which occupies both feet and hands so it's natural to be more engaged with the vehicle. I've been looking around, and I think only Jaguar still offers cars with standard manual transmissions which aren't a special order and upcharge. Everything else seems to be computerized double-clutch which I am told is "faster and more accurate than any human." I've tried driving flappy paddle cars but couldn't get the hang of it. I guess I'm going to have to give in to the technology. On the rare occasions that I drive someone else's automatic, I still depress a phantom clutch when braking.

    As to cars generally, I think before I pointed out that traffic deaths sort of mirror the urban crime wave, which indicates to me that white flight refugees fled urban violence into the maw of catastrophic traffic deaths.

    Replies: @bomag

    In the aggregate it seems to encourage carelessness and inattentiveness before accounting for texting.

    This falls under the category of “hedonic adjustment”: when you make cars safer, people tend to drive more carelessly; when you put in wheel chair ramps etc, it signals people that they can take more chances and not suffer as great of consequences as before.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @bomag

    Actually, it's called risk compensation or sometimes just compensating behavior. It's a widely replicated effect. Make something safer, and people using the something take more risks. For some reason, the existence of this effect makes lefties very angry, and it is wise not to study this effect much. Well, unless you are going to lie about it. Then, studying it is a great idea, career-wise.

    Hedonic adjustment is something else, and something which does not enrage lefties that much. Both Chicago School things. Hedonic adjustment is Sherwin Rosen, and risk compensation is "Seatbelt" Sam Peltzman.

    Peltzman memorably suggested that a good way to protect pedestrians would be to mount a spike in the center of everyone's steering wheel.

  55. @Intelligent Dasein
    I agree with Steve that there are currently an excess of illegal immigrants and other marginal drivers on the road. To put it crudely, there are just too darn many people living in our cities and using the infrastructure, and the city cannot realistically scale up to keep pace with the vertical packing of humanity. This creates all kinds of complications, traffic deaths being one of them. But there is another factor involved that is probably of even greater relative significance.

    The subprime auto bubble.

    Most of these illegal immigrants, welfare queens, marginally employed lowlifes, young skulls full of mush, and the other assorted riffraff of a decadent modern civilization, ought not to be driving at all because they cannot really afford the car. They have been extended credit on fantastically easy terms---as witnessed by the birth of the 72 month, zero down, 130% LTV auto loan for those with a 530 FICO score---in order so that the underwriting banks can bundle the loans into churnable collateral and the bailed-out auto manufactures can continue to channel-stuff the dealerships with inventory that wouldn't otherwise sell. It's Dodd-Frank and the housing crisis all over again.

    Without these massive market distortions, the kind of people who could legitimately afford a car and the kind of people who are responsible enough to be driving around in the first place, would be more closely aligned sets. Way back in June I wrote a comment along these lines on another iSteve article which never made it out of the moderation queue. I would like to try reposting it now, since I believe it is rather pertinent. To wit:

    ~~~

    Interesting point re: the roads not being able to handle the traffic. What very few people seem to realize is that one of the downstream effects of unchecked immigration is a badly overstessed infrastructure. It is a subject that inhabits the intersection of engineering, economics, and philosophy and is thus very near and dear to my heart; consequently, I devote a great deal of thought to it.

    The relative overpopulation of urban areas with migrant scab laborers is the result of the elites deliberately exceeding the relative carrying capacity of the natural economy. I would estimate that America’s real economy is large enough to support about 250 million people in the normal, civilized, and class-stratified mode of life to which we used to be accustomed. The “extra people” afforded by migration have no legitimate social or economic role to play in our nation. They exist as slaves to the elites, and without them the elites would not be able to maintain their incredible wealth-absorbing power. There is a place in the nation’s natural order for the rich and even for the very rich (i.e. to manage the vital capital flows and act as overseers for the macroeconomy); but there is no justification for today’s ultra-rich, who are in one way or another simply parasites strip-mining the capital out of the social order. These oligarchs use the imported slave labor to hollow out the wealth of the nation and to oppress its middle class, which fact also explains their policy positions. They jealously guard their slaves against reprisals from the natives and distort both law and morality to protect their human property. With their thumbs thus on the scale, they are able to extract more than their due from the economy. We’ve all seen the statistic that states that the ratio of CEO pay to average worker pay in the 1970s was 25:1 (which seems about right) while today it is more like 400:1. That wholly unearned and unmerited difference was stolen from the middle class by the oligarchs through various means of financial repression, including demographic overloading.

    The effects of this relative overpopulation show themselves not only in widening wealth gaps and declining (in real, inflation -adjusted terms) middle class wages, but also in badly stressed infrastructure, which is both over-utilized and under-maintained. It’s as if the roads, schools, hospitals, power lines, and water pipes of a city were like a network of tissues holding it together, and now that net is sagging beneath the weight of an oversized load. One of the most visible points of stress, readily apparent to the ordinary citizen, is increased automobile traffic.

    The traffic in my city, as in most American cities, is infuriating—a condition exacerbated by the deteriorating quality of the roads. It ought to be a major selling point for the Trump deportation plan. Once 10-12 million illegal immigrants are no longer in the country, that will mean several million fewer cars on the road. The difference made in fewer traffic jams and shorter commute times should be readily and pleasantly observable. The difficulty lies in getting people to connect the dots between illegal immigration and being stuck in traffic, and there are some logical intermediaries along the way that might involve them in painful cognitive dissonance.

    First, they must recognize that driving is a privilege not a right, and it is also something of a luxury. If you’re going to drive a car, you should probably be an important person and should probably be about some necessary business. Not just anybody should think that they are entitled to drive a car anytime, anywhere they want to go, for any reason. Apart from the attainment of a state-issued driver’s license (which ought to be made harder to get) one of the chief qualifiers of possessing the right to drive should be the ability to afford a car on honest terms (i.e. the subprime auto loan bubble needs to be popped right away). A society of responsible drivers ought to also possess a decent respect for the nation’s roadways and of the capital and expertise necessary to maintain them, and paid for by taxes on their income. The upkeep and proper use of the nation’s roadways is a legitimate political concern and ought to form part of the official business at meetings of the “polity” (i.e. town councils and whatnot). The very idea of illegal immigrants driving on “our roads” ought to arouse a sense of outrage. The road is for the use of those who paid for it and built it; for the use of the polity, not those who are destroying the polity. Jealously guarded driving privileges, jealously guarded roads, are but a small example of the many attitudinal shifts that will have to take place before we can take our country back.

    No doubt this attitude will seem extreme and fascistic to some, but that is because we have lived for so long in a condition of moral laxity, not guarding what was our own nor thinking in terms of virtue ethics as a polity. But for those who balk at the notion, I would venture to point out that it is nothing more than a description of plain and simple reality. Roads are scarce; somebody has to pay for them, somebody has to build them, and their capacity to be used is not infinite. They are thus the political property of those who create them and are not to be used by just anybody, especially by illegal migrant scabs.

    It is a noble and manly habit to view all things in this way. It engenders the virile desire for order, for rank, for strict standards, and for the punishment of lawbreakers. This is what it means to think politically. Without this, nothing strong or beautiful can exist.

    Replies: @Lurker, @bomag, @Lot

    Wonderful comment.

    I think of it as roads being the collective property of the nation, but our rulers are giving the nation’s property away to foreigners out of malice and spite.

  56. Here in NSW, Australia, the road toll for 2016 ytd is up around 15% on the previous year. This seems to be unprecedented. We have a vast number of speed cameras and plenty of mobile random drug and alcohol testing stations. As well fairly vigorous policing of even trivial offences puts many of the worst drivers off the road. Current thinking seems to be putting the blame on distracted drivers.

  57. @Lurker
    @Lot


    but every once in a while I see a lone broken-down looking middle aged man on one riding on city streets (or illegally on bike paths), about 50/50 white or hispanic.
     
    The same guy every time or a succession of a type?

    Replies: @Lot

    Different guys, I meant about half the time the guy is white and half the time hispanic. Some of them I think have had their license taken away after too many DUIs. Or just one DUI without paying all the fines and court costs and mandatory driver ed classes.

  58. @Intelligent Dasein
    I agree with Steve that there are currently an excess of illegal immigrants and other marginal drivers on the road. To put it crudely, there are just too darn many people living in our cities and using the infrastructure, and the city cannot realistically scale up to keep pace with the vertical packing of humanity. This creates all kinds of complications, traffic deaths being one of them. But there is another factor involved that is probably of even greater relative significance.

    The subprime auto bubble.

    Most of these illegal immigrants, welfare queens, marginally employed lowlifes, young skulls full of mush, and the other assorted riffraff of a decadent modern civilization, ought not to be driving at all because they cannot really afford the car. They have been extended credit on fantastically easy terms---as witnessed by the birth of the 72 month, zero down, 130% LTV auto loan for those with a 530 FICO score---in order so that the underwriting banks can bundle the loans into churnable collateral and the bailed-out auto manufactures can continue to channel-stuff the dealerships with inventory that wouldn't otherwise sell. It's Dodd-Frank and the housing crisis all over again.

    Without these massive market distortions, the kind of people who could legitimately afford a car and the kind of people who are responsible enough to be driving around in the first place, would be more closely aligned sets. Way back in June I wrote a comment along these lines on another iSteve article which never made it out of the moderation queue. I would like to try reposting it now, since I believe it is rather pertinent. To wit:

    ~~~

    Interesting point re: the roads not being able to handle the traffic. What very few people seem to realize is that one of the downstream effects of unchecked immigration is a badly overstessed infrastructure. It is a subject that inhabits the intersection of engineering, economics, and philosophy and is thus very near and dear to my heart; consequently, I devote a great deal of thought to it.

    The relative overpopulation of urban areas with migrant scab laborers is the result of the elites deliberately exceeding the relative carrying capacity of the natural economy. I would estimate that America’s real economy is large enough to support about 250 million people in the normal, civilized, and class-stratified mode of life to which we used to be accustomed. The “extra people” afforded by migration have no legitimate social or economic role to play in our nation. They exist as slaves to the elites, and without them the elites would not be able to maintain their incredible wealth-absorbing power. There is a place in the nation’s natural order for the rich and even for the very rich (i.e. to manage the vital capital flows and act as overseers for the macroeconomy); but there is no justification for today’s ultra-rich, who are in one way or another simply parasites strip-mining the capital out of the social order. These oligarchs use the imported slave labor to hollow out the wealth of the nation and to oppress its middle class, which fact also explains their policy positions. They jealously guard their slaves against reprisals from the natives and distort both law and morality to protect their human property. With their thumbs thus on the scale, they are able to extract more than their due from the economy. We’ve all seen the statistic that states that the ratio of CEO pay to average worker pay in the 1970s was 25:1 (which seems about right) while today it is more like 400:1. That wholly unearned and unmerited difference was stolen from the middle class by the oligarchs through various means of financial repression, including demographic overloading.

    The effects of this relative overpopulation show themselves not only in widening wealth gaps and declining (in real, inflation -adjusted terms) middle class wages, but also in badly stressed infrastructure, which is both over-utilized and under-maintained. It’s as if the roads, schools, hospitals, power lines, and water pipes of a city were like a network of tissues holding it together, and now that net is sagging beneath the weight of an oversized load. One of the most visible points of stress, readily apparent to the ordinary citizen, is increased automobile traffic.

    The traffic in my city, as in most American cities, is infuriating—a condition exacerbated by the deteriorating quality of the roads. It ought to be a major selling point for the Trump deportation plan. Once 10-12 million illegal immigrants are no longer in the country, that will mean several million fewer cars on the road. The difference made in fewer traffic jams and shorter commute times should be readily and pleasantly observable. The difficulty lies in getting people to connect the dots between illegal immigration and being stuck in traffic, and there are some logical intermediaries along the way that might involve them in painful cognitive dissonance.

    First, they must recognize that driving is a privilege not a right, and it is also something of a luxury. If you’re going to drive a car, you should probably be an important person and should probably be about some necessary business. Not just anybody should think that they are entitled to drive a car anytime, anywhere they want to go, for any reason. Apart from the attainment of a state-issued driver’s license (which ought to be made harder to get) one of the chief qualifiers of possessing the right to drive should be the ability to afford a car on honest terms (i.e. the subprime auto loan bubble needs to be popped right away). A society of responsible drivers ought to also possess a decent respect for the nation’s roadways and of the capital and expertise necessary to maintain them, and paid for by taxes on their income. The upkeep and proper use of the nation’s roadways is a legitimate political concern and ought to form part of the official business at meetings of the “polity” (i.e. town councils and whatnot). The very idea of illegal immigrants driving on “our roads” ought to arouse a sense of outrage. The road is for the use of those who paid for it and built it; for the use of the polity, not those who are destroying the polity. Jealously guarded driving privileges, jealously guarded roads, are but a small example of the many attitudinal shifts that will have to take place before we can take our country back.

    No doubt this attitude will seem extreme and fascistic to some, but that is because we have lived for so long in a condition of moral laxity, not guarding what was our own nor thinking in terms of virtue ethics as a polity. But for those who balk at the notion, I would venture to point out that it is nothing more than a description of plain and simple reality. Roads are scarce; somebody has to pay for them, somebody has to build them, and their capacity to be used is not infinite. They are thus the political property of those who create them and are not to be used by just anybody, especially by illegal migrant scabs.

    It is a noble and manly habit to view all things in this way. It engenders the virile desire for order, for rank, for strict standards, and for the punishment of lawbreakers. This is what it means to think politically. Without this, nothing strong or beautiful can exist.

    Replies: @Lurker, @bomag, @Lot

    Preach on brother!

    Jason Richwine has some great statistics on these issues, and Hans Hermann-Hoppe has a more abstract and philosophical defense of low human capital immigration.

  59. Sweden and Norway have among the lowest number of road deaths per hundred thousand in the world.
    About a quarter that of the United States and half of Canada.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate

    One wonders about the impact of decriminalizaton of marijuana will have on stats in North America.

    • Replies: @Boomstick
    @Bob123

    It's possible the current increase is linked to legalization. The traffic death increase happened right around when Oregon and Colorado legalized weed, so it should be possible to test for this. If there is a connection one would expect an increase in traffic-related deaths in those states, including more deaths of pedestrians caused by stoned drivers plowing into them.

    The regional stats show sharp increases in the PNW and Mountain West, which include those two states, but I haven't seen a state-by-state breakout.

  60. @Alfa158
    @stillCARealist

    I think a lot of it is what you said. Additionally:
    - Teenagers grow up playing auto related video games with crazy dynamics, switch over to real cars with real physics and wipe them out. An alarming percentage of teenagers I know wreck a car shortly after getting their license, even relatively serious responsible kids. I don't remember that from when I was in that age cohort.
    - Huge immigrant population with poor driving habits, or driving for the first time. Hispanic men in particular seem to regard driving after 10 cervezas to be perfectly normal.
    - Compared to the cars I drove 40 years ago, cars today have startling levels of acceleration and cornering. They are just generally moving way faster than they used to and the traction and braking improvements can't always offset the sheer speed so it is easier to get in trouble. I have been a car nut all my life and still have car magazines with instrumented road test articles from the mid '60's. A Toyota Camry V6 has the same quarter mile elapsed time as a 1965 Pontiac GTO with a 389, triple carbs, and a close ratio 4 speed. The only difference is that if they stay on it past the traps, the Toyota will pull away on top speed and disappear into the distance. In SoCal, when you find a stretch of freeway that is open, 85 seems to be the standard speed.

    Replies: @Lot, @Anon, @PiltdownMan

    Never mind a 1965 GTO. By the early 1980s, performance in passenger cars had declined so much that doing zero to sixty in eight seconds was something only expensive, mostly foreign sports cars could accomplish. Regular middle-class family sedans could barely accelerate to 60 mph in 12 seconds.

    Today, almost all passenger cars with an engine uprated from the no-frills base model can do accelerate like the sports cars of 35 years ago, including most mom SUVs in the suburbs.

    It’s a recipe for trouble, even if the brakes are much better. In fact, people depend on the brakes to get them out of trouble. I can remember a time when you couldn’t depend on the brakes to get you out of trouble in time, or without causing a hard to correct skid in emergency use.

  61. @PiltdownMan

    Here’s another hypothesis: perhaps the rapid spread of high tech safety devices into new mass market cars, like backup cameras and blind spot detection and lane changing warning signals is, perversely, getting more people killed? I sure hope not, because this technology seems like it ought to be a real boon to humanity, but it’s not unknown for reforms to have unwanted effects.
     
    This has been an intense topic of conversation among civil aviation pilots with the advent of sophisticated autopilots and fly-by-wire controls with some level of decision making capability built into them. The suspicion is that autopilot capability which lowers the decision making load on and fatigue among pilots in normal, uneventful flight, also lowers situational awareness and dulls reflexes—to the point where pilots make wrong decisions when thrown suddenly into emergency situations. Startled, they tend to work at cross-purposes with all the automation, thus precipitating disaster.

    In particular, there was a lot of talk of this a few years ago when Air France flight 442 plunged into the mid-Atlantic Ocean when skirting around a thundercloud, but it comes up every time there is an unexplained air disaster in seemingly uneventful level flight.

    Replies: @Anonymous Nephew

    Not necessarily fly-by-wire related, but tangentially relevant

    “Mum-of-two Donna Bull, 53, died of multiple injuries when the 23-year-old Boeing 727 she was travelling in nosedived and smashed into a runway at 450mph.

    All 50 people died in the accident which was caused after the untrained captain misjudged a physical sensation known as an somatogyral illusion.

    This happens when a pilot thinks a plane is accelerating upwards when in fact it is going forwards.

    Pilots are taught how to deal with this common problem in basic training.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensory_illusions_in_aviation

    http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/548796/British-passenger-Donna-Bull-russian-russia-plane-crash-coroner-unlawful-death

  62. I like to say it’s because of all the imports on the road. You know, the drivers who’ve never operated anything more complicated than a burro are now in command of two ton killing machines.

  63. @mp
    It's cell phones, mostly. And people who've never learned how to drive defensively. Or learned to drive at all.

    Around here, a lot of Islanders (actually Puerto Ricans-what was the white man thinking when he annexed that hell hole?) are in to the hit and run. Driving beat up unregistered and uninsured junkers, they don't care if they run in to something, or someone. Why should they? The cops don't care, either. They have bigger fish to fry dealing with assaults and murders.

    A lot of talk about East Asian women driving badly. They are not so much bad drivers as they are overly cautious--which translates to weird driving habits. And they have no peripheral vision. Look straight ahead, and hope for the best.

    In order to decrease red light running accidents, DOT elongates the signal change. People know it, so they just run the red, figuring that the adjacent green won't come on for a few seconds--enough for them to get across the intersection. Or cities shorten the yellow in order to make some fast "camera" money. It's all insane. If I was a cop, I'd be hanging out at Dolly's Do-nuts, too.

    Replies: @Lot, @AndrewR

    When you say “the white man” do you mean the US government? Either way, you sound dumb af saying that.

  64. @Bob123
    Sweden and Norway have among the lowest number of road deaths per hundred thousand in the world.
    About a quarter that of the United States and half of Canada.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate

    One wonders about the impact of decriminalizaton of marijuana will have on stats in North America.

    Replies: @Boomstick

    It’s possible the current increase is linked to legalization. The traffic death increase happened right around when Oregon and Colorado legalized weed, so it should be possible to test for this. If there is a connection one would expect an increase in traffic-related deaths in those states, including more deaths of pedestrians caused by stoned drivers plowing into them.

    The regional stats show sharp increases in the PNW and Mountain West, which include those two states, but I haven’t seen a state-by-state breakout.

  65. @colm
    Isn't it time to make plans about how to survive Ms. Clinton's ultraliberal, completely uninhibited, unchallenged and for all practical purposes omnipotent regime? If something happens to her we will see Chealsea on the white house at 2020.

    Most people here have bet on Trump winning that they have not made any contingency plans, and it will hurt soon.

    Replies: @Bill

    Clinton’s presidency will be exactly like Obama’s but with a higher chance of WWIII. No additional contingency plans are necessary.

    At some point, far in the future, the insanity will pass a threshold forcing sane whites to respond. But we are nowhere near that now.

  66. @Anon
    Drivers have less accidents with age. Up to a point. And then, they get worse.

    You really need to break it down by demographic, time of day, vehicle, etc.

    As odd as it might sound, commuting is as safe as it gets in terms of fatalities per mile. With the increase in telecommuting, a greater percentage of miles driven might be non commuting miles and hence more dangerous.

    The latest generation of cars are amazingly crashworthy. However, since 2000, reliability has increased to the extent that the average age of cars on the road is 11.5 years.

    This is serious because the baseline expectation would be a continual improvement with technology. When you drill down, I think you will find the usual suspects.

    Replies: @Bill

    As odd as it might sound, commuting is as safe as it gets in terms of fatalities per mile.

    That does sound odd. Link?

  67. @Anon
    @Alfa158

    The cars of my youth were big, massive Chevys and Fords that handled like boats, and they had huge chrome bumpers and a ton of room inside. In an accident, they were damned tough, and had lot of natural crumple zone, and they didn't fall apart as easily as today's cars. If you want to survive an accident, that's important. In 2016, cars fall apart like tinkertoys because their weak frames and plastic bodies. There's a point beyond which modern cars simply don't survive accidents, and neither do their drivers.

    Replies: @Bill

    Modern cars are so much safer than the things you could buy in, say, the 60s and 70s that there is no comparison. None at all.

  68. @bomag
    @Alec Leamas


    In the aggregate it seems to encourage carelessness and inattentiveness before accounting for texting.
     
    This falls under the category of "hedonic adjustment": when you make cars safer, people tend to drive more carelessly; when you put in wheel chair ramps etc, it signals people that they can take more chances and not suffer as great of consequences as before.

    Replies: @Bill

    Actually, it’s called risk compensation or sometimes just compensating behavior. It’s a widely replicated effect. Make something safer, and people using the something take more risks. For some reason, the existence of this effect makes lefties very angry, and it is wise not to study this effect much. Well, unless you are going to lie about it. Then, studying it is a great idea, career-wise.

    Hedonic adjustment is something else, and something which does not enrage lefties that much. Both Chicago School things. Hedonic adjustment is Sherwin Rosen, and risk compensation is “Seatbelt” Sam Peltzman.

    Peltzman memorably suggested that a good way to protect pedestrians would be to mount a spike in the center of everyone’s steering wheel.

  69. @Lot
    @mp


    A lot of talk about East Asian women driving badly. They are not so much bad drivers as they are overly cautious–which translates to weird driving habits. And they have no peripheral vision. Look straight ahead, and hope for the best.
     
    Asian american drivers seem fine, and asian immigrant ones are a little erratic and more likely to cause a fender bender in a parking lot, but I doubt cause many highway deaths.

    Replies: @Alec Leamas, @Foreign Expert, @Brutusale

    The only major accident I was ever involved in was due to a carload of recent Chinese immigrants driving in the left lane of Route 128. When they came over a rise, the setting sun took the driver by surprise, and he hit the brakes, causing a chain reaction that claimed 9 cars. I got rear-ended so hard that my seat snapped off the base.

    As Andrew “Dice” Clay said, it’s not the best idea to give a driver’s license to people you can blindfold with dental floss.

    IMHO, our friends from the East are also the cause of the uptick in pedestrian deaths. The city I lived in during the 90s was experiencing a wave of Chinese immigrants, and they were wandering into traffic and being struck on a fairly regular basis. Mix in the Latinos with no compunctions about driving after drinking 12 beers, and I’m surprised the carnage isn’t worse.

  70. @Lot
    @AndrewR


    Well that and the US Supreme Court case in which my father’s late best friend’s son was co-plaintiff.
     
    It was actually the ballot initiative more than the SC case. U of M's undergraduate admissions had a system where they made most decisions based on a numerical formula based on grades, AP classes, and SAT scores, and NAMs simply used a different scale. So a white or asian with a 660 score would be automatically rejected and a black would be automatically admitted.

    That got struck down, but it is trivially simple to do basically the same thing indirectly, which is exactly what most selective colleges do.

    The MCRI simply prohibited using race as a factor at all, which is why U of M is ~10% NAM while Harvard is 28.9% NAM.

    I'm sorry to say that every college affirmative action case to go to the Supreme Court has been a victory for affirmative action, no matter if happens to strike down a particular AA program, because every single case has has reaffirmed that racial diversity is a "compelling state interest" that can justify discrimination against whites and asians.

    Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson

    every single case has has reaffirmed that racial diversity is a “compelling state interest” that can justify discrimination against whites and Asians.

    Diversity is a dirty job, but somebody has to do it. Paging Tim Wise, have you fanned the flames of racial animus sufficiently to meet your hatred quota for today?

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