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Is the Subway Why New York City Is So Hard Hit?
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So, the monthly excess death toll in NYC in the month up through April 4, 2020 is about twice as bad as September 2001.

From the New York Times a couple of days ago:

41 Transit Workers Dead: Crisis Takes Staggering Toll on Subways

The M.T.A. has been criticized for its response to the outbreak. Now a staffing shortage has made it difficult to keep even a diminished system running.

By Christina Goldbaum, April 8, 2020

At least 41 transit workers have died, and more than 6,000 more have fallen sick or self-quarantined. Crew shortages have caused over 800 subway delays and forced 40 percent of train trips to be canceled in a single day. On one line the average wait time, usually a few minutes, ballooned to as high as 40 minutes.

Ideally, the NYC subway system could respond to an epidemic by running more trains to reduce crowding. But illness among its workers means fewer, more jammed trains, which increase the likely infectiousness risk of each.

I hadn’t realized how the NYC subway is an order of magnitude busier than the biggest “heavy rail” (i.e., subways or elevateds with their own right of ways) systems of the next tier, D.C. and Chicago.

City/Area served Annual ridership Avg. weekday ridership System Rider. per mile
(2019)[1] (Q4 2019)[1] length
New York City 2,274,960,100 9,117,400 245 miles (394 km)[2] 37,214
Washington, D.C. 237,701,100 816,700 117 miles (188 km)[4] 6,980
Chicago 218,467,000 695,300 102.8 miles (165.4 km)[5] 6,764
Boston 152,339,700 475,300 38 miles (61 km)[6] 12,508
San Francisco Bay Area 123,510,000 421,100 112 miles (180 km)[7] 3,760
Manhattan; Hudson County, and Newark 90,276,600 306,700 13.8 miles (22.2 km)[10][11] 22,225
Philadelphia 90,240,800 329,200 36.7 miles (59.1 km)[14][15] 8,970
Atlanta 63,998,500 175,338[note 5] 47.6 miles (76.6 km) 3,684
Los Angeles 41,775,100 130,900 17.4 miles (28.0 km)[20] 7,523
Miami 18,073,100 62,600 24.4 miles (39.3 km)[21] 2,566
Philadelphia, southern New Jersey 11,107,500 38,400 14.2 miles (22.9 km)[23] 2,704
Staten Island (New York City) 7,741,000 28,500 14 miles (23 km)[2] 2,036
Baltimore 7,325,500 36,600 15.5 miles (24.9 km)[25] 2,361
Cleveland 5,958,000 15,900 19 miles (31 km)[27] 837
San Juan 5,233,900 20,300 10.7 miles (17.2 km)[29] 1,897

Other cities rely more on buses, but NYC has a huge number of buses too.

Basically, NYC has the fewest people with their own private cars.

My guess is that dangers of infection correlate with number of people standing in the mass transit vehicle and perhaps with straphanging. My vague recollection is subways tend to have more floor space for standing than for sitting, while buses have more floor space devoted to sitting than standing, while commuter trains try to be all sitting.

This unfortunate event will cause some trouble for mass transit enthusiasts.

 
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  1. ’41 Transit Workers Dead: Crisis Takes Staggering Toll on Subways…’

    New Yorkers are obviously wimps.

  2. OT: Wow, the author of this NYT article really names the “Joos”, as some commenters here spell it. As Neil Diamond sang, “Beak comin’ to America… today!”

    When Asian-Americans Have to Prove We Belong

    This isn’t the first time we’ve been treated as a threat.

    By Jia “Right Up The” Lynn Yang

    Congress enacted a new set of ethnic quotas dreamed up by eugenicists aimed at maintaining their conception of America as a white and Anglo-Saxon nation. By designating some races as more desirable than others, the law sharply restricted Jewish and Italian immigration — and banned nearly all Asians.

    In the years that followed, a small group of Jewish lawmakers fought to abolish the quotas.

    But defeating the overall quota system proved more difficult. Faced with a Red Scare climate at its zenith, lawmakers were wary of admitting Eastern and Southern European immigrants, whom they associated with radical political activity. And so to the dismay of Jewish leaders, lawmakers refused to abandon ethnic quotas giving preference to countries like Britain.

    Winning the right to naturalize was a watershed moment in Asian-American history. But the fight left others bitter. “It is impossible to compute the amount of harm which the Japanese American Citizens League and Masaoka caused to effective opposition to this legislation,” concluded an analysis conducted by the American Jewish Congress.

    It would take another 13 years of pressure from Jewish lawmakers and activists and support from the Irish-Catholic Kennedy family before race-based quotas were finally abolished from the country’s immigration system.

    • Replies: @syonredux
    The authoress has a book on the subject:

    One Mighty and Irresistible Tide: The Epic Struggle Over American Immigration, 1924-1965
    by Jia Lynn Yang

    The idea of the United States as a nation of immigrants is at the core of the American narrative. But in 1924, Congress instituted a system of ethnic quotas so stringent that it choked off large-scale immigration for decades, sharply curtailing arrivals from southern and eastern Europe and outright banning those from nearly all of Asia.
     

    In a riveting narrative filled with a fascinating cast of characters, from the indefatigable congressman Emanuel Celler and senator Herbert Lehman to the bull-headed Nevada senator Pat McCarran, Jia Lynn Yang recounts how lawmakers, activists, and presidents from Truman through LBJ worked relentlessly to abolish the 1924 law. Through a world war, a refugee crisis after the Holocaust, and a McCarthyist fever, a coalition of lawmakers and activists descended from Jewish, Irish, and Japanese immigrants fought to establish a new principle of equality in the American immigration system. Their crowning achievement, the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act, proved to be one of the most transformative laws in the country’s history, opening the door to nonwhite migration at levels never seen before―and changing America in ways that those who debated it could hardly have imagined.

     


    Framed movingly by her own family’s story of immigration to America, Yang’s One Mighty and Irresistible Tide is a deeply researched and illuminating work of history, one that shows how Americans have strived and struggled to live up to the ideal of a home for the "huddled masses," as promised in Emma Lazarus’s famous poem.
     
    https://www.amazon.com/One-Mighty-Irresistible-Tide-Immigration/dp/0393635848
    , @AnotherDad

    In the years that followed, a small group of Jewish lawmakers fought to abolish the quotas.

    ...

    It would take another 13 years of pressure from Jewish lawmakers and activists and support from the Irish-Catholic Kennedy family before race-based quotas were finally abolished from the country’s immigration system.
     
    Hmm, sounds like a long Jewish war--insurgency--against the American nation. But i keep being told that's just my anti-Semitic imagination at work.

    But i guess if it's spun as a positive heroic struggle ... then it's fine.

    ~~~

    Weird thing with all this "exclusion" and "quota" whining ...

    I've never once thought that China should allow me to come plop my ass down there. Never once. It's ridiculous, why would they? And it certainly does not bother me.

    Heck, i never even thought Ireland or England or Germany should have to take me back. I'm a pretty nice guy, healthy and would do my best to fit in. But they are supposed to run their joints for the benefit of their citizens.

    It's a very weird psychological tick for some group to be so obsessed with the fact that some other people somewhere are happy with their own deal and don't particularly want you around. And continually yammering and whining about it.

    I don't know if there is a name for this psychological disorder? Best i can come up with is "asshole".
  3. Anon[174] • Disclaimer says:

    Tokyo? 185 new cases yesterday.

    Not only do few people own cars, but houses built more than 30 years ago in Tokyo tended not to have parking spaces, no houses have garages, no streets allow overnight parking, and workplaces don’t have employee parking.

    Why hasn’t Tokyo exploded? Lack of vibrancy and its boisterous, diverse culture and aversion to rules?

    Mind you, Tokyo’s numbers are on the upward trend, but it’s linear, not exponential,so far.

    • Replies: @Louis Renault
    Lower "co-morbidity"?
    , @AnonAnon

    Why hasn’t Tokyo exploded?
     
    Because Japan universally vaccinates for tuberculosis.

    “Countries with mandatory policies to vaccinate against tuberculosis register fewer coronavirus deaths than countries that don’t have those policies, a new study has found....

    Countries including Japan and South Korea, which appear to have managed to control the disease so far, have universal BCG vaccine policies. “


    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/09/world/science-health-world/fewer-coronavirus-deaths-seen-countries-mandate-tuberculosis-vaccine/#.XpEH78plChA

    , @Brian Reilly
    Anaon, You ask "Why hasn't Tokyo exploded?" Maybe better to ask if, in fact, NYC ever "exploded" with coronavirus, or any other remarkable (which is to say out of the usual) illness or malady. No, is the answer to that. This is about 90% scam, and the Japs just ain't buying it. Good on them, I say.
    , @PennTothal
    Always remember the most important axiom of this pandemic: Italy is the outlier.

    All of the models that had the U.S. following Italy with a 11-12 day lag have been falsified except in the NY metro area.

    It is likely that the strain of virus that spread in Asia (to Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, etc) is less virulent than the Italian strain.

    It is the Italian strain that is primarily spreading in the NY metro area. So maybe it takes a few hits to create disaster, just one hit may not be enough. Maybe disaster (NY Metro) requires: 1. Italian strain of the virus + 2. Crowded, densely-packed living, subways, etc. + 3. Cold, dry air + 4. Mask-averse or poorly compliant populace.

    The southern U.S. (New Orleans, Houston, etc) may only have 2 out of the 4 necessary hits and may never experience disaster.
  4. Is the subway the reason why NYC was hit so hard? True, crowded conditions facilitate transmission of the virus, but so does stupidity.

    The transit agency was late to distribute disinfectant to clean shared work spaces, struggled to keep track of sick workers and failed to inform their colleagues about possible exposure to the virus, according to interviews with two dozen transit workers.

    and

    As the virus spread, many workers became so concerned that they took measures into their own hands: They cordoned off seats with duct tape to distance drivers from riders and used their own masks and homemade disinfectant at work, only to be reprimanded by supervisors.

    and

    The authority is disinfecting train cars and buses every three days and has urged riders to wait for empty trains to mitigate the overcrowding problems caused by reduced service.

    … every three days???
    or
    … to wait for empty trains???

    In Albany, Georgia, a funeral attended by a congregation of others was the triggering event for a large outbreak.

    Stupid is as stupid does.

    • Replies: @unit472
    Shockingly the tiny Albany, Georgia 'metro area' has more deaths from Covid than the Atlanta area! In relative terms this would like the Syracuse or Binghamton, New York area having more deaths than the New York metro area.
    , @Hhsiii
    Yeah, I took buses until about 3 weeks ago. The bus drivers eventually cordoned off their area and told you to enter in the back, stopped taking fares.

    I work for the city and we aren’t putting contracts through. Contractors will continue to work (Hopefully) but won’t get paid. For a few months at least. Pretty obvious. Governments that don’t print their own currency bankrupted themselves, spending massively while destroying their income stream. NY already had issues, albeit doing fine during the Wall Street boom.
    , @reactionry
    "Better Than Ezra"?*

    In A Station of the MTA (2020)

    "The apparition of these faces in a crowd;

    Petals on a wet, black [bier]."

    FIFY

    https://www.gradesaver.com/ezra-pound-poems/study-guide/summary-in-a-station-of-the-metro-1913


    * https://whynameitthat.blogspot.com/2013/02/better-than-ezra.html

    See Also - Drunken Idiotic Idiom: Crying in my Corona bier
  5. Transit workers in New York City have pretty much zero interaction with the people riding the trains. Motormen operate the trains from enclosed cabs separate from the passengers. There are no conductors. The MTA even removed the human ticket agents in the booths. Occasionally you will see transit workers doing something on the tracks but these crews don’t interact with the public.

    So New York subway trains being crowded would have nothing to do with MTA employees getting sick. The MTA is notorious for making cleaning the stations a high priority, but again the effects of that would be seen with the passengers before being seen with the employees.

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    They have to walk off the Subways...and to walk off the Subway you must...Go through a crowd

    Rinse and repeat with word 'on'

    Did you know that there are restrooms hidden on Subway platforms specifically for train conductors to use?

    That's a cool fact for ya

    , @Obee
    NYCTA subway trains have conductors. They ride in a central motorman’s compartment with an open window and before the doors are closed must look up and down the outside of the train to be sure the doors are clear. Other employees are stationed on busy platforms to control loading. There are many Revenue Agents in booths to assist passengers. In addition to crowds the air is constantly pushed through the tunnels by the piston action of the trains. Highly infectious environment for employee.
    , @Deirdre
    They don’t clean the subways; they’re gross. They’re filthy and disgusting. And you could be having your throat cut while everyone - MTA employees and fellow passengers would just sit there whistling Dixie and pretending not to hear your bloody gurgling through your slit vocal cords. Smelly and disgusting. I left it behind a long time ago! Don’t miss it one bit.
    , @Deirdre
    They don’t clean the subways; they’re gross. They’re filthy and disgusting. And you could be having your throat cut while everyone - MTA employees and fellow passengers would just sit there whistling Dixie and pretending not to hear your bloody gurgling through your slit vocal cords. Smelly and disgusting. I left it behind a long time ago! Don’t miss it one bit.
  6. @Anon
    Tokyo? 185 new cases yesterday.

    Not only do few people own cars, but houses built more than 30 years ago in Tokyo tended not to have parking spaces, no houses have garages, no streets allow overnight parking, and workplaces don't have employee parking.

    Why hasn't Tokyo exploded? Lack of vibrancy and its boisterous, diverse culture and aversion to rules?

    Mind you, Tokyo's numbers are on the upward trend, but it's linear, not exponential,so far.

    Lower “co-morbidity”?

  7. Leaders in new deaths today, in order:

    New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut, Indiana

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    I see zero Southern states in the top eight; Florida, Louisiana and Texas have all dropped down the ranks.

    Here is a map from April first about who is not shutting down:
    https://twitter.com/RobertBryan4/status/1245720320931135489/photo/1

    Look what we have!

    The Southern states have been the worst behaved with social distancing. And what’s more, the Southern states have much worse baseline health.

    If social distancing were the main driver all the southern states would be getting hammered. None of them are anywhere near the top of the list of new deaths. Meanwhile the top seven states in deaths, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut all have Democrat governors that have imposed a total lock-down.

    And yet!

    Cold, dry air is where this thing spreads. Everyone is now locked indoors and so indoor humidity is the dominant variable as indoor temperature is around 72 everywhere. Meanwhile indoor conditions are very dry in colder climates.

    Steve, my good man! This is a really strong correlation now, right? Surely worthy of big note, I think. Hundreds of lives at least can be saved by humidifying.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/humidity-helps-in-the-fight-against-covid-19-virologists-report/

    Steve I urge you to re-up the need to humidify. It will save many lives, I am certain!

    It will also show where we can open up first and where we need to be more careful!

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    How is Arizona doing?
    , @Charon

    indoor temperature is around 72 everywhere
     
    What?
    , @epebble

    I see zero Southern states in the top eight
     
    Even if you push Southern to South of Rio Grande. Almost zero impact in Mexico, Argentina, Chile .... No Video of mass graves outside of Italy, Spain, U.S. in Western Hemisphere AFAIK, except corpses rotting on sidewalks in Ecuador.
  8. Well, perhaps you’re right that this will be troublesome for mass-transit enthusiasts generally. But speaking as someone who (mostly? I’m in rural CT now and will be for the foreseeable future) lives in Manhattan, I must be a mass-transit enthusiast for NYC: there’s really no alternative for getting around the place quickly and cheaply.

    I walk a lot too, but if you need to get somewhere distant in a hurry, it’s mostly the subway. I seldom take cabs, because they tend to get bogged down in traffic at any hour when I actually want to get somewhere. We own a car, but almost never take it out of the garage except when we’re leaving New York City.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    NYC , particularly Manhattan, is best viewed as a theme park where there are a lot of , not Little Hitlers, but Little Disneys. In Disneyland, only Walt had his own apartment, but in Manhattan, millions do. The difference is that most people have the sense not to really want to LIVE in Disneyland, as convenient as its close agglomeration of rides and attractions might be.
  9. @Anon
    Tokyo? 185 new cases yesterday.

    Not only do few people own cars, but houses built more than 30 years ago in Tokyo tended not to have parking spaces, no houses have garages, no streets allow overnight parking, and workplaces don't have employee parking.

    Why hasn't Tokyo exploded? Lack of vibrancy and its boisterous, diverse culture and aversion to rules?

    Mind you, Tokyo's numbers are on the upward trend, but it's linear, not exponential,so far.

    Why hasn’t Tokyo exploded?

    Because Japan universally vaccinates for tuberculosis.

    “Countries with mandatory policies to vaccinate against tuberculosis register fewer coronavirus deaths than countries that don’t have those policies, a new study has found….

    Countries including Japan and South Korea, which appear to have managed to control the disease so far, have universal BCG vaccine policies. “

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/09/world/science-health-world/fewer-coronavirus-deaths-seen-countries-mandate-tuberculosis-vaccine/#.XpEH78plChA

  10. Look, if this was a real plague or pandemic, transportation would be the first thing to be shut down. First air travel would be shut down, followed by mass transit such as trains and buses, followed by blocking roads to and from infected areas. And this would be done for the obvious reason of containing the plague and stopping people from bringing it from infected to uninfected areas. Maybe people would be allowed eventually to move around cities that were already infected, in which case trying to stop the spread within the city would be pointless.

    If businesses closed, it would be because the transit lines were down so their workers and customers could not get to the business. What you would not see is empty buses making their rounds, empty because people are banned from working in their offices, while outdoor tennis courts are closed.

    • Agree: Just another serf
  11. What are the numbers from Paris and London? A two weeks ago the Frence were moving patients out of the city by rail.
    https://qz.com/1831937/photos-coronavirus-patients-leave-paris-by-train-to-alleviate-its-strained-hospitals/

  12. Annual ridership of Tokyo subway system: 3.5 billion

    Annual ridership of Seoul subway system: 1.9 billion

    Annual ridership of NY subway system: 1.7 billion

    Masks are clearly very important. It should be noted also that in Korea and Japan, people humidify their indoor spaces with humidifiers during the winter.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    Hong Kong's MTR has a ridership almost exactly the same as NYC's subway, i.e. about 1.7 billion/year.

    So far as I can recall from the news here, there has not been a single case of COVID-19 traced to being spread on the MTR, or on any other form of public transport, for that matter. I guess there are likely a few untraceable cases here and there where it might have occurred, but it doesn't seem to be a big problem.

    The vast majority of cases that have been identified as actually having been transmitted here have been either family members, at big group gatherings (e.g. the 'Buddha Hall' cases early in the crisis here), or at bars/gyms/close public gatherings.

    Yesterday HK had 16 new cases, nearly all of whom were arrivals from overseas who were already infected.

    The MTR has continued to run throughout the lockdown here. At times it's still very busy, with people standing close together for significant stretches of time. And yet there's very little indication that this has been a serious path for transmission.

    Why not? I've got a couple of simple theories.

    First, the MTR does an excellent job of keeping its trains clean, and of course has enhanced their cleaning and disinfecting during the crisis. MTR trains are also modern and well-ventilated.

    Second, everybody's wearing masks, and have been since January.

    , @Jack D

    It should be noted also that in Korea and Japan, people humidify their indoor spaces with humidifiers during the winter.
     
    It should be noted that most Japanese don't have central heating in their homes (nor in many other indoors spaces). They get by with various forms of space heater. In America, portable kerosene heaters are mainly popular among folks in the ghetto who have had their power disconnected for nonpayment, but in Japan they have widespread popularity. Often they do put a kettle on top, which both adds humidity and provides a ready source of hot water. Or they have a device that looks like a cross between a coffee table and a bed quilt. It has a small electric heating element embedded in the underside of the table . You and your family stick your legs under the table and the quilt holds in the warmth. As long as you sit there, it's quite cozy, at least for your lower body.

    In any case, since humidity is relative, keeping your house at a toasty 55F (plus leaving a window cracked open so you don't suffocate from the kerosene fumes) tends to raise the indoor humidity. But not in a way that most Americans would appreciate.
  13. https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/de-blasio-mta-hiding-whole-truth-as-dangerous-transit-crowds-persist/

    “ Mayor Bill de Blasio thinks the MTA should increase service to allow for social distancing on subway trains, even as the state’s transit agency struggles to stay afloat with thousands of workers out sick thanks to the coronavirus.”

  14. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:

    New York City is an unnaturally dense agglomeration that a sane nation would disperse on survivability grounds if for no other reason. When 9/11 occurred, the first basic takeaway I had, and any other person with any concept of sustainability and redundancy would have had, is that had the attackers used a little better tactical judgment they could have done a whole lot more damage to the US and world economy by better target selection, and that it was criminally stupid not to force the geographical dispersion of the financial industry, completely aside from the general idea that any truly conservative political party and administration would have seized on the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to cut Manhattan down to size just on general principles. No true conservative can abide New York City, which is how you know Limbaugh is no real conservative, neither was Trucklin’ Bill, who actually ran for Mayor of the godforsaken place.

  15. The PATH trains are sixth in total ridership and second in riders-per-mile?

    I’ve wondered how long a trip you could take linking commuter rail systems. Right now it looks like it’s Waterbury, Ct. to Newark– not NJ, but Delaware, which I’m told is pronounced differently.

    MBTA plans to extends to Fall River by 2023. When that happens, you could go from Newburyport on Cape Ann via Block Island summer ferries and Montauk LIRR all the way to Delaware.

    We once journeyed from Albany’s Amtrak station in Rensselaer to Newark (NJ) Airport by rail. It took six* separate rail systems.

    In contrast, check out Henry Huntington’s Pacific Electric lines in Southern California a century ago:

    *Amtrak, Metro North, MTA, PATH, NJ Transit, & EWR terminal shuttle

    • Replies: @res
    And that was during a period when the population of LA county was 500k - about 5 million. Compared to 10 million today.
    http://www.laalmanac.com/population/po02.php
    , @ScarletNumber
    The PATH trains are very useful. Hoboken and Jersey City never would have had their renaissance without them. Its two New York termini are at the World Trade Center and one block east of Penn Station/MSG. Considering east is closer to midtown, that's the direction you want to be.
    , @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Newburyport on Cape Ann
     
    Newburyport is northwest of Cape Ann—which comprises the city of Gloucester and the towns of Rockport, Essex, and Manchester (by-the-Sea, if you must). Newburyport could, however, be thought of as part of Boston’s extended North Shore.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shore_(Massachusetts)

    , @Prosa123
    New London, Connecticut (Shore Line East) to Newark, Delaware is the longest commuter rail journey, assuming the subway connection in Manhattan counts. If it's okay to use Amtrak/Uber/whatever for the 18 miles between Newark and Perryville, Maryland, the commuter journey will go all the the way south to Fredericksburg, Virginia.
  16. “I think the best possible way for people to get around is mass transit, it’s really the best way”

    –Corona Chan

  17. @DanHessinMD
    Leaders in new deaths today, in order:

    New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut, Indiana

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    I see zero Southern states in the top eight; Florida, Louisiana and Texas have all dropped down the ranks.

    Here is a map from April first about who is not shutting down:
    https://twitter.com/RobertBryan4/status/1245720320931135489/photo/1

    Look what we have!

    The Southern states have been the worst behaved with social distancing. And what's more, the Southern states have much worse baseline health.

    If social distancing were the main driver all the southern states would be getting hammered. None of them are anywhere near the top of the list of new deaths. Meanwhile the top seven states in deaths, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut all have Democrat governors that have imposed a total lock-down.

    And yet!

    Cold, dry air is where this thing spreads. Everyone is now locked indoors and so indoor humidity is the dominant variable as indoor temperature is around 72 everywhere. Meanwhile indoor conditions are very dry in colder climates.

    Steve, my good man! This is a really strong correlation now, right? Surely worthy of big note, I think. Hundreds of lives at least can be saved by humidifying.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/humidity-helps-in-the-fight-against-covid-19-virologists-report/

    Steve I urge you to re-up the need to humidify. It will save many lives, I am certain!

    It will also show where we can open up first and where we need to be more careful!

    How is Arizona doing?

    • Replies: @DanHessinMD
    Arizona is ranked 22 out of 50 states in cases and also 22 out of 50 states in deaths (1 being the most cases and deaths).

    I don't know much about Arizona and I have never been there. I hear it is quite dry although March is the wettest month of the year in Phoenix. So Arizona is dry, but not incredibly so in March.

    Arizona and Hawaii are similarly warm but Arizona is much drier than Hawaii. Hawaii seems to have fared fairly well, better than Arizona even though Hawaii is much denser and is a big travel destination during the colder months.
    , @DanHessinMD
    Arizona has had 97 coronavirus deaths. Hawaii has had 8.
  18. @Reg Cæsar
    The PATH trains are sixth in total ridership and second in riders-per-mile?

    I've wondered how long a trip you could take linking commuter rail systems. Right now it looks like it's Waterbury, Ct. to Newark-- not NJ, but Delaware, which I'm told is pronounced differently.

    MBTA plans to extends to Fall River by 2023. When that happens, you could go from Newburyport on Cape Ann via Block Island summer ferries and Montauk LIRR all the way to Delaware.

    We once journeyed from Albany's Amtrak station in Rensselaer to Newark (NJ) Airport by rail. It took six* separate rail systems.

    In contrast, check out Henry Huntington's Pacific Electric lines in Southern California a century ago:


    https://i1.wp.com/www.transitmap.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/tumblr_pekjn8EN8h1r54c4oo1_1280.png?w=1280&ssl=1


    *Amtrak, Metro North, MTA, PATH, NJ Transit, & EWR terminal shuttle

    And that was during a period when the population of LA county was 500k – about 5 million. Compared to 10 million today.
    http://www.laalmanac.com/population/po02.php

  19. Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    – Mass transit/reducing cars
    – High density housing
    – Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones
    – Open borders
    – Muh ethnic restaurants/food trucks
    – Outsourcing to China

    • Replies: @Thoughts
    Great, isn't it?

    Don't forget, Fat Acceptance as fat people have higher mortality

    , @Reg Cæsar
    I'd feel safer on a Chinese subway than in a Hummer in spacious Detroit.

    On a Russian one, too, though not as much:


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Metro#Notable_incidents

    , @anonymous
    Add banning plastic straws (lips on cup rim), and legalized marijuana smoking (decreased lung function).
    , @dfordoom

    Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    – Mass transit/reducing cars
     
    Yep, a huge mistake. Maybe Trump could get the economy booming again with massive spending on new roads and freeways. I'd love to see that.

    – High density housing
     
    Another huge mistake. A house on a quarter-acre block with a back yard is infinitely better for raising kids and is better for psychological and physical health.

    – Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones
     
    Reusable shopping bags are simply gross. Pathogen magnets.
    , @CJ
    Good concept Dave, good list, but you forgot the battle against individually-wrapped straws. That’s what my local Woken were fighting just as the virus hit.
  20. San Diego has 120,000 riders per day on its Trolley. I’m not sure why Miami, Baltimore, Cleveland, and San Juan are listed, but not San Diego. East coast bias maybe?

  21. @Reg Cæsar
    The PATH trains are sixth in total ridership and second in riders-per-mile?

    I've wondered how long a trip you could take linking commuter rail systems. Right now it looks like it's Waterbury, Ct. to Newark-- not NJ, but Delaware, which I'm told is pronounced differently.

    MBTA plans to extends to Fall River by 2023. When that happens, you could go from Newburyport on Cape Ann via Block Island summer ferries and Montauk LIRR all the way to Delaware.

    We once journeyed from Albany's Amtrak station in Rensselaer to Newark (NJ) Airport by rail. It took six* separate rail systems.

    In contrast, check out Henry Huntington's Pacific Electric lines in Southern California a century ago:


    https://i1.wp.com/www.transitmap.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/tumblr_pekjn8EN8h1r54c4oo1_1280.png?w=1280&ssl=1


    *Amtrak, Metro North, MTA, PATH, NJ Transit, & EWR terminal shuttle

    The PATH trains are very useful. Hoboken and Jersey City never would have had their renaissance without them. Its two New York termini are at the World Trade Center and one block east of Penn Station/MSG. Considering east is closer to midtown, that’s the direction you want to be.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    The PATH trains are very useful.
     
    They sure were during the 1980 transit strike. I'd walk the mile from the Governors Island ferry slip to the WTC, then ride via PATH and Newark to Penn Station and Midtown.

    The strike didn't affect the Port Authority.

  22. Ideally, the NYC subway system could respond to an epidemic by running more trains to reduce crowding.

    On what planet? I hate to break this to you, but there is no redundancy in anything, anywhere in America anymore. The globalists stripped it all out.

    I’m not trying to start a fight just because I’m being blunt. Please take me seriously. I work as a line manager in logistics, transportation, and delivery, across several industries in both the public and private sector. I see it everywhere, and this is precisely what’s been giving me nightmares for the last 10 years.

  23. @eD
    Transit workers in New York City have pretty much zero interaction with the people riding the trains. Motormen operate the trains from enclosed cabs separate from the passengers. There are no conductors. The MTA even removed the human ticket agents in the booths. Occasionally you will see transit workers doing something on the tracks but these crews don't interact with the public.

    So New York subway trains being crowded would have nothing to do with MTA employees getting sick. The MTA is notorious for making cleaning the stations a high priority, but again the effects of that would be seen with the passengers before being seen with the employees.

    They have to walk off the Subways…and to walk off the Subway you must…Go through a crowd

    Rinse and repeat with word ‘on’

    Did you know that there are restrooms hidden on Subway platforms specifically for train conductors to use?

    That’s a cool fact for ya

    • Replies: @Dan Hayes
    Subsidiary facts for ya. Today all of these public unhidden restrooms are located at the beginning and end of the subway lines. At one time every subway station had a public restroom but were closed when they became shooting galleries and crime warrens probably starting in the 60s.
  24. @Dave Pinsen
    Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    - Mass transit/reducing cars
    - High density housing
    - Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones
    - Open borders
    - Muh ethnic restaurants/food trucks
    - Outsourcing to China

    Great, isn’t it?

    Don’t forget, Fat Acceptance as fat people have higher mortality

  25. Anonymous[427] • Disclaimer says:
    @slumber_j
    Well, perhaps you're right that this will be troublesome for mass-transit enthusiasts generally. But speaking as someone who (mostly? I'm in rural CT now and will be for the foreseeable future) lives in Manhattan, I must be a mass-transit enthusiast for NYC: there's really no alternative for getting around the place quickly and cheaply.

    I walk a lot too, but if you need to get somewhere distant in a hurry, it's mostly the subway. I seldom take cabs, because they tend to get bogged down in traffic at any hour when I actually want to get somewhere. We own a car, but almost never take it out of the garage except when we're leaving New York City.

    NYC , particularly Manhattan, is best viewed as a theme park where there are a lot of , not Little Hitlers, but Little Disneys. In Disneyland, only Walt had his own apartment, but in Manhattan, millions do. The difference is that most people have the sense not to really want to LIVE in Disneyland, as convenient as its close agglomeration of rides and attractions might be.

    • Replies: @slumber_j
    Huh. Well, everyone lives wherever he or she lives in my experience, Anonymous[427]. I don't see Manhattan that way--but then again you'd argue that I wouldn't, would I? How is it where you are, whoever you are?
  26. Vancouver has vacated all bus and Skytrain fares, which seems counterintuitive. Making mass transit free doesn’t exactly discourage ridership, even though the numbers are massively down (mostly because people have no jobs, and thus don’t need to commute).

    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Making mass transit free doesn’t exactly discourage ridership, even though the numbers are massively down (mostly because people have no jobs, and thus don’t need to commute).
     
    Although making it free can cause it to be used by piss-bums, which will discourage other people from using it.
  27. @Dave Pinsen
    Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    - Mass transit/reducing cars
    - High density housing
    - Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones
    - Open borders
    - Muh ethnic restaurants/food trucks
    - Outsourcing to China

    I’d feel safer on a Chinese subway than in a Hummer in spacious Detroit.

    On a Russian one, too, though not as much:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Metro#Notable_incidents

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    What is cooler than a Silver Streak in real life in Chicago?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elMXt00xyIU
  28. is this thing a real threat or not? Democrats sure don’t act like it. wouldn’t the subway be THE FIRST thing shut down if this virus was a real threat? that the subway is STILL running shows that, yet again, the Democrats are full of shit liars. probably all the above ground passenger rail in New York is still running too.

    NYC Democrat assholes reserve the right to infect everybody and not sacrifice a single thing. the rest of the nation’s enmity for them is well earned.

    by the way, what is Michael Bloomberg doing? the richest man in NYC is still not donating a dollar to help. what a transparent parasite shitbag.

    Jack Dorsey just put down a billion. that’s how you do it.

    • Replies: @James Braxton
    $1billion he donated to his own fund...not to the Red Cross or something.
  29. @Reg Cæsar
    The PATH trains are sixth in total ridership and second in riders-per-mile?

    I've wondered how long a trip you could take linking commuter rail systems. Right now it looks like it's Waterbury, Ct. to Newark-- not NJ, but Delaware, which I'm told is pronounced differently.

    MBTA plans to extends to Fall River by 2023. When that happens, you could go from Newburyport on Cape Ann via Block Island summer ferries and Montauk LIRR all the way to Delaware.

    We once journeyed from Albany's Amtrak station in Rensselaer to Newark (NJ) Airport by rail. It took six* separate rail systems.

    In contrast, check out Henry Huntington's Pacific Electric lines in Southern California a century ago:


    https://i1.wp.com/www.transitmap.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/tumblr_pekjn8EN8h1r54c4oo1_1280.png?w=1280&ssl=1


    *Amtrak, Metro North, MTA, PATH, NJ Transit, & EWR terminal shuttle

    Newburyport on Cape Ann

    Newburyport is northwest of Cape Ann—which comprises the city of Gloucester and the towns of Rockport, Essex, and Manchester (by-the-Sea, if you must). Newburyport could, however, be thought of as part of Boston’s extended North Shore.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shore_(Massachusetts)

  30. @ScarletNumber
    The PATH trains are very useful. Hoboken and Jersey City never would have had their renaissance without them. Its two New York termini are at the World Trade Center and one block east of Penn Station/MSG. Considering east is closer to midtown, that's the direction you want to be.

    The PATH trains are very useful.

    They sure were during the 1980 transit strike. I’d walk the mile from the Governors Island ferry slip to the WTC, then ride via PATH and Newark to Penn Station and Midtown.

    The strike didn’t affect the Port Authority.

  31. Steve, this is something I thought of today and was planning on asking you. (This post makes it not at all off-topic as I’d planned):

    Have you been out driving on the LA freeways? If not you, do you have friends or family who have? I’d really like to know how they enjoy it, with what’s got to be a whole lot less traffic. I mean, I can picture driving in Los Angeles now as though I were on an early-on episode of The Rockford Files.

    Do you have a Trans-Am, Steve? I know, I know, they get 17 mpg on the freeway, so what, gas is basically free!

    (This is the REAL Eagles, with Bernie Leadon and Randy Meisner.)

    Well, my time went too quickly.
    I went lickety-splitly out to my old fifty-five.
    As I pulled away slowly, feelin’ so holy,
    God knows I was feelin’ alive.
    And now the sun’s comin’ up.
    I’m ridin’ with Lady Luck.
    Freeway cars and trucks…

    • Thanks: Coemgen
    • Replies: @anonymous
    Try the Tom Waits version, for that hung-over-been-up-all-night vibe.
    , @Alfa158
    The freeways are flowing as well as they did in 60’s. The 405 through West LA in recent years was stop and go basically from 6AM to midnight. Now, you just cruise through.
    A few differences that tell you it’s not actually the 60’s. One is that everyone is driving some sort of TruckUV, or foreign car.
    Another is that people are driving faster than in the old days. Today with the lack of traffic you can be going 75-8o and people are weaving around you. There is a lot of nostalgia for those cool looking cars of the old days, but the reality is they were pieces of crap compared to modern cars. Current cars are both much faster and much easier and safer to drive fast. That’s why rich guys pay Ferrari prices for old American cars and pickups that have been “restomoded” with modern mechanics and electronics.
    Lastly, a driver transported from the 60’s to current day Southern California would look at the ethnicity of drivers around him and wonder if we lost a war or something.
    , @ziggurat
    That song was written by Tom Waits.

    "Ol' '55" is a song by American musician Tom Waits. ... The song has been covered by numerous artists, most notably by the Eagles ...
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ol%27_%2755

    I love his voice and the way he sings it. (The lyrics are under the video at YouTube.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PejBkU4-1fk
    Also, the story behind it is that Tom Waits had a friend, who got lucky with a lady one night. After he got into his car in the early morning, he found that there was a malfunction that prevented him from going forward. He could only go in reverse.

    So, he went in reverse down the highway, with everyone flashing their lights at him (and I imagine honking too). But because he was so deliriously happy, he was thinking to himself: "I lead the parade".
  32. @DanHessinMD
    Annual ridership of Tokyo subway system: 3.5 billion

    Annual ridership of Seoul subway system: 1.9 billion

    Annual ridership of NY subway system: 1.7 billion

    Masks are clearly very important. It should be noted also that in Korea and Japan, people humidify their indoor spaces with humidifiers during the winter.

    Hong Kong’s MTR has a ridership almost exactly the same as NYC’s subway, i.e. about 1.7 billion/year.

    So far as I can recall from the news here, there has not been a single case of COVID-19 traced to being spread on the MTR, or on any other form of public transport, for that matter. I guess there are likely a few untraceable cases here and there where it might have occurred, but it doesn’t seem to be a big problem.

    The vast majority of cases that have been identified as actually having been transmitted here have been either family members, at big group gatherings (e.g. the ‘Buddha Hall’ cases early in the crisis here), or at bars/gyms/close public gatherings.

    Yesterday HK had 16 new cases, nearly all of whom were arrivals from overseas who were already infected.

    The MTR has continued to run throughout the lockdown here. At times it’s still very busy, with people standing close together for significant stretches of time. And yet there’s very little indication that this has been a serious path for transmission.

    Why not? I’ve got a couple of simple theories.

    First, the MTR does an excellent job of keeping its trains clean, and of course has enhanced their cleaning and disinfecting during the crisis. MTR trains are also modern and well-ventilated.

    Second, everybody’s wearing masks, and have been since January.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    Second, everybody’s wearing masks, and have been since January.
     
    B*I*N*G*O

    Mask are pretty much all you need to prevent casual we're-breathing-the-same-air transmission.

    And if you do get the virus with your mask, guess what? Your dose will be tiny and your immune system--unless it is really compromised by age or your past bad behavior or some bad genetics--will quickly catch on, catch up and beat the virus into submission.

    This isn't exactly rocket science ... various thinkers had the idea of "germs" causing disease for a few thousand years and we've had a very solid understanding since Pasteur and others in the mid/late 19th century.

    But our Center for Disease Control told Americans they were useless. I can only conclude that this is a case of "regulatory capture" and instead of working for Americans the CDC is on the side of disease.
  33. I come from a blue collar background (Boston and its surroundings). I’ve hobnobbed with MBTA transit workers. There’s a lot of passing the joint around in that demographic. No doubt it’s the same in (metro) NYC it’s just an order of magnitude more common.

  34. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    OT: Wow, the author of this NYT article really names the “Joos”, as some commenters here spell it. As Neil Diamond sang, “Beak comin’ to America… today!”

    When Asian-Americans Have to Prove We Belong

    This isn’t the first time we’ve been treated as a threat.

    By Jia “Right Up The” Lynn Yang
     

    Congress enacted a new set of ethnic quotas dreamed up by eugenicists aimed at maintaining their conception of America as a white and Anglo-Saxon nation. By designating some races as more desirable than others, the law sharply restricted Jewish and Italian immigration — and banned nearly all Asians.

    In the years that followed, a small group of Jewish lawmakers fought to abolish the quotas.
     

    But defeating the overall quota system proved more difficult. Faced with a Red Scare climate at its zenith, lawmakers were wary of admitting Eastern and Southern European immigrants, whom they associated with radical political activity. And so to the dismay of Jewish leaders, lawmakers refused to abandon ethnic quotas giving preference to countries like Britain.
     

    Winning the right to naturalize was a watershed moment in Asian-American history. But the fight left others bitter. “It is impossible to compute the amount of harm which the Japanese American Citizens League and Masaoka caused to effective opposition to this legislation,” concluded an analysis conducted by the American Jewish Congress.

    It would take another 13 years of pressure from Jewish lawmakers and activists and support from the Irish-Catholic Kennedy family before race-based quotas were finally abolished from the country’s immigration system.
     

    The authoress has a book on the subject:

    One Mighty and Irresistible Tide: The Epic Struggle Over American Immigration, 1924-1965
    by Jia Lynn Yang

    The idea of the United States as a nation of immigrants is at the core of the American narrative. But in 1924, Congress instituted a system of ethnic quotas so stringent that it choked off large-scale immigration for decades, sharply curtailing arrivals from southern and eastern Europe and outright banning those from nearly all of Asia.

    In a riveting narrative filled with a fascinating cast of characters, from the indefatigable congressman Emanuel Celler and senator Herbert Lehman to the bull-headed Nevada senator Pat McCarran, Jia Lynn Yang recounts how lawmakers, activists, and presidents from Truman through LBJ worked relentlessly to abolish the 1924 law. Through a world war, a refugee crisis after the Holocaust, and a McCarthyist fever, a coalition of lawmakers and activists descended from Jewish, Irish, and Japanese immigrants fought to establish a new principle of equality in the American immigration system. Their crowning achievement, the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act, proved to be one of the most transformative laws in the country’s history, opening the door to nonwhite migration at levels never seen before―and changing America in ways that those who debated it could hardly have imagined.

    Framed movingly by her own family’s story of immigration to America, Yang’s One Mighty and Irresistible Tide is a deeply researched and illuminating work of history, one that shows how Americans have strived and struggled to live up to the ideal of a home for the “huddled masses,” as promised in Emma Lazarus’s famous poem.

    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company; 1st edition (May 19, 2020)
     
    Thanks. Awaiting Steve’s review when the book comes out!
  35. OFF TOPIC

    Stay home!

    With 19 dead, 47 more wounded by gunfire, Chicago sees most violent 5-day span of 2020

    The outburst dwarfed the numbers from the same period in 2019; then, as now, temperatures reached the 70s. From April 7 to April 11, 2019, 13 people were killed and 26 wounded in shootings, according to Chicago Police data.

    By Sam Charles Apr 10, 2020, 6:35pm CDT

    Amid a statewide stay-at-home order, Chicago saw the most violent five-day span of the year earlier this week, with 60 people shot between Sunday and Thursday.

    Of those shot, 17 died and 43 were wounded.

    Two more were killed in other ways: a man pushed in front of a Red Line train in the Loop on Tuesday, and a man stabbed late Sunday on the West Side.

    Victims ranged in age from 5 to 66 years; 10 were younger than 18.

    The five-day outburst of violence dwarfed the numbers recorded during the same time period in 2019 — then, like now, temperatures reached the 70s. From April 7 to April 11, 2019, 13 people were killed and another 26 wounded in shootings, according to Chicago Police data.

    With temperatures reaching summer-like highs Tuesday, the city saw its single most violent day of the year: eight killed and 15 others — including a 5-year-old girl — wounded in shootings. On average, a shooting occurred once every 83 minutes on Tuesday.

    Full story here: https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime

    • Replies: @Charon

    Chicago saw the most violent five-day span of the year earlier this week, with 60 people shot between Sunday and Thursday.
     
    Do the media reports say how many of the gunmen were white? I bet it's lots.

    Oh wait.

    , @Brian Reilly
    Jack, Just give the warm weather and a completely unemployed, non rent paying, broke, diverse bunch of city residents, and delays in the promised heliopter money a chance to marinate, then stew. The results will be a mess of truly epic prportions.

    All you cops in diverse urban areas: You have a very short period of time to figure out what you are going to do. It will either be in a real urban war, or find someplace else to work. Don't worry about your pension, that shit is all gone anyhow. Concentrate on figuring out if you really can live with shooting a few people who may or may not have it coming. This will not be a drill. Once the temp hits 80, it will be game on.
    , @Alden
    After intensive studies and peer reviews, a coalition of sociologists, psychologists, and victimologists has finally discovered the root cause of black on black killings.

    Temperatures in the 70s in spring, 80s and 9os in the summer, 60-40s in the fall and 40-10s in winter.
  36. @Dave Pinsen
    Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    - Mass transit/reducing cars
    - High density housing
    - Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones
    - Open borders
    - Muh ethnic restaurants/food trucks
    - Outsourcing to China

    Add banning plastic straws (lips on cup rim), and legalized marijuana smoking (decreased lung function).

  37. Ron Paul is calling for Anthony Fauci to be fired. So is this guy, running for Senate in Massachusetts. He even has a petition to sign.

    The pushback is beginning, thank God Almighty.

  38. @syonredux
    The authoress has a book on the subject:

    One Mighty and Irresistible Tide: The Epic Struggle Over American Immigration, 1924-1965
    by Jia Lynn Yang

    The idea of the United States as a nation of immigrants is at the core of the American narrative. But in 1924, Congress instituted a system of ethnic quotas so stringent that it choked off large-scale immigration for decades, sharply curtailing arrivals from southern and eastern Europe and outright banning those from nearly all of Asia.
     

    In a riveting narrative filled with a fascinating cast of characters, from the indefatigable congressman Emanuel Celler and senator Herbert Lehman to the bull-headed Nevada senator Pat McCarran, Jia Lynn Yang recounts how lawmakers, activists, and presidents from Truman through LBJ worked relentlessly to abolish the 1924 law. Through a world war, a refugee crisis after the Holocaust, and a McCarthyist fever, a coalition of lawmakers and activists descended from Jewish, Irish, and Japanese immigrants fought to establish a new principle of equality in the American immigration system. Their crowning achievement, the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act, proved to be one of the most transformative laws in the country’s history, opening the door to nonwhite migration at levels never seen before―and changing America in ways that those who debated it could hardly have imagined.

     


    Framed movingly by her own family’s story of immigration to America, Yang’s One Mighty and Irresistible Tide is a deeply researched and illuminating work of history, one that shows how Americans have strived and struggled to live up to the ideal of a home for the "huddled masses," as promised in Emma Lazarus’s famous poem.
     
    https://www.amazon.com/One-Mighty-Irresistible-Tide-Immigration/dp/0393635848

    Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company; 1st edition (May 19, 2020)

    Thanks. Awaiting Steve’s review when the book comes out!

  39. anonymous[117] • Disclaimer says:
    @Achmed E. Newman
    Steve, this is something I thought of today and was planning on asking you. (This post makes it not at all off-topic as I'd planned):

    Have you been out driving on the LA freeways? If not you, do you have friends or family who have? I'd really like to know how they enjoy it, with what's got to be a whole lot less traffic. I mean, I can picture driving in Los Angeles now as though I were on an early-on episode of The Rockford Files.

    Do you have a Trans-Am, Steve? I know, I know, they get 17 mpg on the freeway, so what, gas is basically free!


    (This is the REAL Eagles, with Bernie Leadon and Randy Meisner.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--rAINTn2TE


    Well, my time went too quickly.
    I went lickety-splitly out to my old fifty-five.
    As I pulled away slowly, feelin' so holy,
    God knows I was feelin' alive.
    And now the sun's comin' up.
    I'm ridin' with Lady Luck.
    Freeway cars and trucks...

    Try the Tom Waits version, for that hung-over-been-up-all-night vibe.

    • Agree: ziggurat
  40. It’s not just the crowded cars and platforms but also the three sprawling transfer hubs in Brooklyn, Queens and Times Square that help every neighborhood spread its gunk to other neighborhoods up and down the line. Fighting your way through these fast-moving crowds is an Olympic event

  41. Is there anything else to talk about? Never thought I’d miss talk of golf course design.

  42. @DanHessinMD
    Leaders in new deaths today, in order:

    New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut, Indiana

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    I see zero Southern states in the top eight; Florida, Louisiana and Texas have all dropped down the ranks.

    Here is a map from April first about who is not shutting down:
    https://twitter.com/RobertBryan4/status/1245720320931135489/photo/1

    Look what we have!

    The Southern states have been the worst behaved with social distancing. And what's more, the Southern states have much worse baseline health.

    If social distancing were the main driver all the southern states would be getting hammered. None of them are anywhere near the top of the list of new deaths. Meanwhile the top seven states in deaths, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut all have Democrat governors that have imposed a total lock-down.

    And yet!

    Cold, dry air is where this thing spreads. Everyone is now locked indoors and so indoor humidity is the dominant variable as indoor temperature is around 72 everywhere. Meanwhile indoor conditions are very dry in colder climates.

    Steve, my good man! This is a really strong correlation now, right? Surely worthy of big note, I think. Hundreds of lives at least can be saved by humidifying.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/humidity-helps-in-the-fight-against-covid-19-virologists-report/

    Steve I urge you to re-up the need to humidify. It will save many lives, I am certain!

    It will also show where we can open up first and where we need to be more careful!

    indoor temperature is around 72 everywhere

    What?

    • Replies: @DanHessinMD
    The point is, mostly everyone in America right now is staying indoors. Presumably people set their thermostats around 70 or 72 everywhere. But the one variable that is different for everyone is indoor humidity. In the colder places, indoor humidity is low. Low humidity seems to be bad for the lungs.

    Here is a Yale Medical School virologist saying the same thing:

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome#How-dry-air-affects-immunity,-viral-spread
  43. OFF TOPIC:

    “We are deeply saddened to report that yesterday, Darran Simon was found dead in his apartment.”

    Washington Post reporter Darran Simon was found dead Thursday in his apartment, according to a memo sent to staffers.

    The cause of death has not been announced.

  44. @Anon
    Tokyo? 185 new cases yesterday.

    Not only do few people own cars, but houses built more than 30 years ago in Tokyo tended not to have parking spaces, no houses have garages, no streets allow overnight parking, and workplaces don't have employee parking.

    Why hasn't Tokyo exploded? Lack of vibrancy and its boisterous, diverse culture and aversion to rules?

    Mind you, Tokyo's numbers are on the upward trend, but it's linear, not exponential,so far.

    Anaon, You ask “Why hasn’t Tokyo exploded?” Maybe better to ask if, in fact, NYC ever “exploded” with coronavirus, or any other remarkable (which is to say out of the usual) illness or malady. No, is the answer to that. This is about 90% scam, and the Japs just ain’t buying it. Good on them, I say.

  45. Well, that huge NYC death-spike tends to confirm that very large numbers of New Yorkers are dying of Coronavirus without showing up in the official totals because they were never tested before their deaths, just as had happened in Lombardy. There was a big story in the NYT this morning saying the same thing.

    Taking those figures into account, I’d think that daily New York Coronavirus deaths have been running well over 1,000 for several days now, possibly even getting close to 1,500/day.

    When that same chart is updated in another few days, I think the fatality-spike for NYC will look like a delta function, and maybe those stubborn Coronavirus Hoaxers will finally give up and admit that they were wrong.

    But I’m still very puzzled why the rate of serious hospitalizations are so much lower than expected. I think the NY officials said the same thing, that they’d expected to see almost 10x more. If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now, and deaths would probably be running more like 4K-5K per day instead of the current figures.

    Perhaps those special drugs are working. Or perhaps the percentage of extremely mild/asymptomatic cases is many times greater than people had believed, and a substantial fraction of all NYC residents have already been infected.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now
     
    I also found that a number of hospitals have been able to expend their ICU beds dramatically (one hospital went from 20 to 150). Obviously that has strained the staff and resources significantly and is not sustainable at all, but it is still quite impressive. Our hospitals have turned out to be more resilient than previously thought.

    On the other hand, with all the electives/ambulatory surgeries canceled, hospitals have lost the bulk of their incomes that subsidize money-losers such as EDs, so I expect them to have crippling balance sheets going forward. This will likely accelerate consolidation and result in further closures in low access (mostly rural) areas unless there is government intervention.
    , @Semperluctor
    That’s the point, right there. When they finish antibody testing sometime by late summer, the numbers will show that at least 35 to 50m were infected. The death rate in wave 1 will be 50,000 or so, thus a death rate of 0.1% to 0.15%. Whether the total death rate would have been higher without hydroxy + zpac etc can be estimated, but not fully known, by looking at the data coming out of the clinical studies now underway. Those data will be approximates, as many people who get infected will have avoided hospitalizations, by taking the cocktails early. I know of two such men.
    , @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco
    Would be interesting to see how many New Yorkers obtained prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine from their doctors in March. I obtained a prescription back on March 12 after reading numerous reports snouts the benefits of this drug in fighting CV.

    Many already knew about the benefits of this drug , which caused shortages prior to March 25 , when Cuomo banned doctors from prescribing it. But many New Yorkers already obtained a supply , which is why the drug stores have none left.

    Weeks ago people also began taking zinc and Vitamin D and C .....these vitamins have been sold-out for weeks now on Amazon , my next shipment will not be arriving until May. Maybe the huge increase in vitamin use has reduced the rate of hospitalization ?
    , @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/instead-of-coronavirus-patients-syracuse-hospitals-swamped-with-empty-beds.html?
    , @Hhsiii
    Around March 15 I had a 100.5 fever for a week and a light cough. In NYC. My wife the week before. We probably had it. Barely noticed it.
    , @Tor597
    People are afraid to go to the hospital because they think they will get worse.

    Then they die in their homes.
    , @Hypnotoad666
    The NYT death toll numbers are based on their "provisional" calculation, which involves extrapolating and adding assumed coronavirus deaths into the total which they believe haven't been reported yet.

    This is valid in principle, as there is a reporting lag. But I don't fully trust the NYT not to put their thumb on the scale when making any sort of assumptions. For better or worse, they are all-in on maximizing the fear at this point.

    A new talking point is that people who are too afraid to go to the hospital for other matters are part of the death toll. Maybe. But they should be counted as casualties of the panic, not the virus itself.
  46. If you’ve never ridden a train in Tokyo, you haven’t experienced mass transit crowding. They have workers who literally shove people into the cars as the doors are closing. One time, I swear I could have lifted my feet off the ground while standing, and not fallen.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    Subway trains in Tokyo and Seoul are much cleaner than those in NYC, however.
    , @MBlanc46
    Sounds like me trying to board an in-bound Jubilee Line train at St John’s Wood at rush hour in the 1980s.
  47. @Jack Armstrong
    OFF TOPIC

    Stay home!

    With 19 dead, 47 more wounded by gunfire, Chicago sees most violent 5-day span of 2020

    The outburst dwarfed the numbers from the same period in 2019; then, as now, temperatures reached the 70s. From April 7 to April 11, 2019, 13 people were killed and 26 wounded in shootings, according to Chicago Police data.

    By Sam Charles Apr 10, 2020, 6:35pm CDT

    Amid a statewide stay-at-home order, Chicago saw the most violent five-day span of the year earlier this week, with 60 people shot between Sunday and Thursday.

    Of those shot, 17 died and 43 were wounded.

    Two more were killed in other ways: a man pushed in front of a Red Line train in the Loop on Tuesday, and a man stabbed late Sunday on the West Side.

    Victims ranged in age from 5 to 66 years; 10 were younger than 18.

    The five-day outburst of violence dwarfed the numbers recorded during the same time period in 2019 — then, like now, temperatures reached the 70s. From April 7 to April 11, 2019, 13 people were killed and another 26 wounded in shootings, according to Chicago Police data.

    With temperatures reaching summer-like highs Tuesday, the city saw its single most violent day of the year: eight killed and 15 others — including a 5-year-old girl — wounded in shootings. On average, a shooting occurred once every 83 minutes on Tuesday.

    Full story here: https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime
     

    Chicago saw the most violent five-day span of the year earlier this week, with 60 people shot between Sunday and Thursday.

    Do the media reports say how many of the gunmen were white? I bet it’s lots.

    Oh wait.

  48. @Jack Armstrong
    OFF TOPIC

    Stay home!

    With 19 dead, 47 more wounded by gunfire, Chicago sees most violent 5-day span of 2020

    The outburst dwarfed the numbers from the same period in 2019; then, as now, temperatures reached the 70s. From April 7 to April 11, 2019, 13 people were killed and 26 wounded in shootings, according to Chicago Police data.

    By Sam Charles Apr 10, 2020, 6:35pm CDT

    Amid a statewide stay-at-home order, Chicago saw the most violent five-day span of the year earlier this week, with 60 people shot between Sunday and Thursday.

    Of those shot, 17 died and 43 were wounded.

    Two more were killed in other ways: a man pushed in front of a Red Line train in the Loop on Tuesday, and a man stabbed late Sunday on the West Side.

    Victims ranged in age from 5 to 66 years; 10 were younger than 18.

    The five-day outburst of violence dwarfed the numbers recorded during the same time period in 2019 — then, like now, temperatures reached the 70s. From April 7 to April 11, 2019, 13 people were killed and another 26 wounded in shootings, according to Chicago Police data.

    With temperatures reaching summer-like highs Tuesday, the city saw its single most violent day of the year: eight killed and 15 others — including a 5-year-old girl — wounded in shootings. On average, a shooting occurred once every 83 minutes on Tuesday.

    Full story here: https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime
     

    Jack, Just give the warm weather and a completely unemployed, non rent paying, broke, diverse bunch of city residents, and delays in the promised heliopter money a chance to marinate, then stew. The results will be a mess of truly epic prportions.

    All you cops in diverse urban areas: You have a very short period of time to figure out what you are going to do. It will either be in a real urban war, or find someplace else to work. Don’t worry about your pension, that shit is all gone anyhow. Concentrate on figuring out if you really can live with shooting a few people who may or may not have it coming. This will not be a drill. Once the temp hits 80, it will be game on.

    • Replies: @James Speaks
    Barbed wire futures are up, or if they’re not, they should be.

    I have a mix of barbed wire, field fence, bungee sticks and some truly obnoxious plants with spines that don’t let go.
  49. @Anon
    Tokyo? 185 new cases yesterday.

    Not only do few people own cars, but houses built more than 30 years ago in Tokyo tended not to have parking spaces, no houses have garages, no streets allow overnight parking, and workplaces don't have employee parking.

    Why hasn't Tokyo exploded? Lack of vibrancy and its boisterous, diverse culture and aversion to rules?

    Mind you, Tokyo's numbers are on the upward trend, but it's linear, not exponential,so far.

    Always remember the most important axiom of this pandemic: Italy is the outlier.

    All of the models that had the U.S. following Italy with a 11-12 day lag have been falsified except in the NY metro area.

    It is likely that the strain of virus that spread in Asia (to Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, etc) is less virulent than the Italian strain.

    It is the Italian strain that is primarily spreading in the NY metro area. So maybe it takes a few hits to create disaster, just one hit may not be enough. Maybe disaster (NY Metro) requires: 1. Italian strain of the virus + 2. Crowded, densely-packed living, subways, etc. + 3. Cold, dry air + 4. Mask-averse or poorly compliant populace.

    The southern U.S. (New Orleans, Houston, etc) may only have 2 out of the 4 necessary hits and may never experience disaster.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Italy is the outlier.
     
    What about Spain?
    , @ls0928
    I regularly listen to the War Nerd podcast (highly recommended, lefty politics aside). Over the past 6 months or so they have had a regular guest from Lombardy discussing the military and political history of Venice. Anyway, now this guy Annibale happens to be in lockdown, and they have had several discussions with him about that. The core hot zone is the area about 20-30 miles east and northeast of Milan, e.g. Bergamo. It's been much worse there than anywhere else. He said Milan has had a lot of cases, but it's just not the same intensity. He commented that something else is going on in this area that isn't well understood. I've seen reference to this idea elsewhere. Perhaps it's some unlucky confluence of super spreaders that really got things going.

    I think you are onto something with the Italian vs. Japan/Korea virus strains, too.

    Six weeks ago, I was really concerned about multiple NYC-like situations in the US. With Wuhan, the Chinese were able to isolate it and then reinforce the medical and logistics situation from outside. I had assumed that we would have 20 distinct regional outbreaks nationwide, so everything goes to shit all at once and the logistical systems break down and so forth. Very glad that hasn't happened.

    But I am still very worried about next fall and winter.

    , @GermanReader2
    The Italian strain is the one going round in Germany as well (this has been proven by scientific analysis). Something else must be going on in Italy, because the Germans still have the capacity to import ICU patients from Italy, France and even Spain.
  50. Elevators are big in NYC too. Both for office and residential buildings. I use a plastic garbage bag when I get in my little condo elevator so I don’t touch the buttons.

    I was reading about the Ruby Princess, another Carnival cruise ship for which the Australian government has begun a criminal investigation. Passengers who weren’t oblivious to the risk became concerned how people were crowding on to the elevators. Glad some government is going after the cruise companies. IMHO the executives and captains should be prosecuted for murder for any cruise that left port after the Diamond Princess was quarantined.

    • Replies: @CCZ
    Yes, elevators with air fans that blow / circulate but do not exchange the air within the car and select your floor buttons that every passenger touches.

    One source: "Passenger elevators, which are used for delivering patrons to a designated floor, are obviously the most abundant in the city, with more than 66, 602 of them in use as of 2015."
  51. Don’t forget elevators. Everyone goes up and down to get to apartments and offices and everything else.

    But yes, NYC subways and buses must be major centers of contagion. Many sketchy, rude, don’t fuck with me riders, including beggars and break dancers, everyone crammed together, with major lapses of personal hygiene and filthy, poorly ventilated stations.

  52. @Steve Sailer
    How is Arizona doing?

    Arizona is ranked 22 out of 50 states in cases and also 22 out of 50 states in deaths (1 being the most cases and deaths).

    I don’t know much about Arizona and I have never been there. I hear it is quite dry although March is the wettest month of the year in Phoenix. So Arizona is dry, but not incredibly so in March.

    Arizona and Hawaii are similarly warm but Arizona is much drier than Hawaii. Hawaii seems to have fared fairly well, better than Arizona even though Hawaii is much denser and is a big travel destination during the colder months.

    • Replies: @Rex Little

    Arizona is ranked 22 out of 50 states in cases and also 22 out of 50 states in deaths (1 being the most cases and deaths).
     
    Arizona is 14th in population, so I would guess that it's in the lower half of states in cases and deaths per capita. (Too lazy to look up the numbers and verify that.)

    I don’t know much about Arizona and I have never been there. I hear it is quite dry although March is the wettest month of the year in Phoenix. So Arizona is dry, but not incredibly so in March.
     
    I do live in Arizona, just east of Phoenix. It's normally quite dry here, but this year has been one of the wettest on record. By the middle of March, we had already had as much rainfall in 2020 as we get in an average full year. Looking out my window right now, I see rain clouds, and the forecast calls for some rain today.
  53. @Ron Unz
    Well, that huge NYC death-spike tends to confirm that very large numbers of New Yorkers are dying of Coronavirus without showing up in the official totals because they were never tested before their deaths, just as had happened in Lombardy. There was a big story in the NYT this morning saying the same thing.

    Taking those figures into account, I'd think that daily New York Coronavirus deaths have been running well over 1,000 for several days now, possibly even getting close to 1,500/day.

    When that same chart is updated in another few days, I think the fatality-spike for NYC will look like a delta function, and maybe those stubborn Coronavirus Hoaxers will finally give up and admit that they were wrong.

    But I'm still very puzzled why the rate of serious hospitalizations are so much lower than expected. I think the NY officials said the same thing, that they'd expected to see almost 10x more. If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now, and deaths would probably be running more like 4K-5K per day instead of the current figures.

    Perhaps those special drugs are working. Or perhaps the percentage of extremely mild/asymptomatic cases is many times greater than people had believed, and a substantial fraction of all NYC residents have already been infected.

    If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now

    I also found that a number of hospitals have been able to expend their ICU beds dramatically (one hospital went from 20 to 150). Obviously that has strained the staff and resources significantly and is not sustainable at all, but it is still quite impressive. Our hospitals have turned out to be more resilient than previously thought.

    On the other hand, with all the electives/ambulatory surgeries canceled, hospitals have lost the bulk of their incomes that subsidize money-losers such as EDs, so I expect them to have crippling balance sheets going forward. This will likely accelerate consolidation and result in further closures in low access (mostly rural) areas unless there is government intervention.

    • Agree: Jack Armstrong
    • Replies: @Ron Unz

    I also found that a number of hospitals have been able to expend their ICU beds dramatically (one hospital went from 20 to 150). Obviously that has strained the staff and resources significantly and is not sustainable at all, but it is still quite impressive. Our hospitals have turned out to be more resilient than previously thought.
     
    Sure. But the expected hospitalizations are running 85% lower than expected, and those latter numbers would have surely crashed the system. For example, from the NYT:

    Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end.
     
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html

    Something is clearly either wrong or drastically changed in the illness model that everyone had been using...
  54. @PennTothal
    Always remember the most important axiom of this pandemic: Italy is the outlier.

    All of the models that had the U.S. following Italy with a 11-12 day lag have been falsified except in the NY metro area.

    It is likely that the strain of virus that spread in Asia (to Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, etc) is less virulent than the Italian strain.

    It is the Italian strain that is primarily spreading in the NY metro area. So maybe it takes a few hits to create disaster, just one hit may not be enough. Maybe disaster (NY Metro) requires: 1. Italian strain of the virus + 2. Crowded, densely-packed living, subways, etc. + 3. Cold, dry air + 4. Mask-averse or poorly compliant populace.

    The southern U.S. (New Orleans, Houston, etc) may only have 2 out of the 4 necessary hits and may never experience disaster.

    Italy is the outlier.

    What about Spain?

  55. @Spud Boy
    If you’ve never ridden a train in Tokyo, you haven’t experienced mass transit crowding. They have workers who literally shove people into the cars as the doors are closing. One time, I swear I could have lifted my feet off the ground while standing, and not fallen.

    Subway trains in Tokyo and Seoul are much cleaner than those in NYC, however.

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    In the past couple of years, we've ridden the subways in HK, Seoul, and several Chinese cities -- and also the systems in London and NYC.

    The contrast is hard to believe. Using the systems in NYC and London feels like a trip back in time. The trains and stations are dirty, stuffy, and all-around unpleasant.
  56. DC Metro, BART and MARTA are more like hybrid subway, commuter train systems. They stretch deep into outer suburbs. This is how all the new subway systems in the world are being built. NYC subway service is only inside of the city limits. The region also has the PATH subway connecting NYC to NJ, which is the sixth largest system in the USA, three massive commuter train systems and a few light rail lines in NJ. The level of crowding on NYC Subway trains, commuter trains and especially PATH trains is absurd.

    I once did the NJ Transit to PATH commute and I never got a seat on NJT in the morning. I had to stand for almost about hour or more, often while waiting through long delays. Then the PATH train was stuffed full of people, largely Indian H1B workers, like sardines in a can. PATH is by far the most crowded and strained transit system in America. On the way home, I not infrequently had to wait for the second PATH train, as the first one was completely full so that not one more person could fit. This is why NYC and North Jersey are the epicenters. It was spreading for weeks on these trains before people started dying in large numbers.

    • Replies: @Jack D

    NYC subway service is only inside of the city limits
     
    Because NYC has many times the population of DC or SF or Atlanta, you have to go a MUCH longer distance before the suburbs begin. In Philly, the first stop in the suburbs on the Main Line is about 15 minutes from the downtown station. In NY if you are going out to LI, 15 min after you leave Penn Station you're still in downtown Brooklyn and then you have all of Queens to go thru and the closest suburb outside the city line is a good half hour or more away from Penn Station (and it's barely a suburb). If you are driving down Jamaica Avenue you might not even realize that you have left Queens and are now in Nassau County. To really get somewhere that is slightly less crowded is more like 45 mins minimum on the LIRR.
  57. @Charon

    indoor temperature is around 72 everywhere
     
    What?

    The point is, mostly everyone in America right now is staying indoors. Presumably people set their thermostats around 70 or 72 everywhere. But the one variable that is different for everyone is indoor humidity. In the colder places, indoor humidity is low. Low humidity seems to be bad for the lungs.

    Here is a Yale Medical School virologist saying the same thing:

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome#How-dry-air-affects-immunity,-viral-spread

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I bought 5 humidifers right after Dan started commenting a month or so ago. They are, at minimum, good for peace of mind because we cough less when they are running.
  58. @Steve Sailer
    How is Arizona doing?

    Arizona has had 97 coronavirus deaths. Hawaii has had 8.

  59. @Ron Unz
    Well, that huge NYC death-spike tends to confirm that very large numbers of New Yorkers are dying of Coronavirus without showing up in the official totals because they were never tested before their deaths, just as had happened in Lombardy. There was a big story in the NYT this morning saying the same thing.

    Taking those figures into account, I'd think that daily New York Coronavirus deaths have been running well over 1,000 for several days now, possibly even getting close to 1,500/day.

    When that same chart is updated in another few days, I think the fatality-spike for NYC will look like a delta function, and maybe those stubborn Coronavirus Hoaxers will finally give up and admit that they were wrong.

    But I'm still very puzzled why the rate of serious hospitalizations are so much lower than expected. I think the NY officials said the same thing, that they'd expected to see almost 10x more. If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now, and deaths would probably be running more like 4K-5K per day instead of the current figures.

    Perhaps those special drugs are working. Or perhaps the percentage of extremely mild/asymptomatic cases is many times greater than people had believed, and a substantial fraction of all NYC residents have already been infected.

    That’s the point, right there. When they finish antibody testing sometime by late summer, the numbers will show that at least 35 to 50m were infected. The death rate in wave 1 will be 50,000 or so, thus a death rate of 0.1% to 0.15%. Whether the total death rate would have been higher without hydroxy + zpac etc can be estimated, but not fully known, by looking at the data coming out of the clinical studies now underway. Those data will be approximates, as many people who get infected will have avoided hospitalizations, by taking the cocktails early. I know of two such men.

  60. Those who are reluctant to seek timely treatment because of lacking health care insurance maybe are particularly likely to travel on the subway where they get greater viral load; always someone coughing. So lots of deaths, but they are dying very soon after being admitted to the ICU, or dying at home.

    The UK government initially allowed construction sites (of which there are an immense number in London) to stay open. The workers are recruited en masse aboard and apart from being foreign they are all classified as self employed (who do not contribute to the benefits that are now being paid to them). Them swarming in the Tube on the first day on lockdown was like the plague rats scene of Nosferatu.

  61. @James Speaks
    Is the subway the reason why NYC was hit so hard? True, crowded conditions facilitate transmission of the virus, but so does stupidity.

    The transit agency was late to distribute disinfectant to clean shared work spaces, struggled to keep track of sick workers and failed to inform their colleagues about possible exposure to the virus, according to interviews with two dozen transit workers.
     
    and

    As the virus spread, many workers became so concerned that they took measures into their own hands: They cordoned off seats with duct tape to distance drivers from riders and used their own masks and homemade disinfectant at work, only to be reprimanded by supervisors.
     
    and

    The authority is disinfecting train cars and buses every three days and has urged riders to wait for empty trains to mitigate the overcrowding problems caused by reduced service.
     
    ... every three days???
    or
    ... to wait for empty trains???

    In Albany, Georgia, a funeral attended by a congregation of others was the triggering event for a large outbreak.

    Stupid is as stupid does.

    Shockingly the tiny Albany, Georgia ‘metro area’ has more deaths from Covid than the Atlanta area! In relative terms this would like the Syracuse or Binghamton, New York area having more deaths than the New York metro area.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    That's where the janitor's funeral was held.
  62. @Twinkie

    If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now
     
    I also found that a number of hospitals have been able to expend their ICU beds dramatically (one hospital went from 20 to 150). Obviously that has strained the staff and resources significantly and is not sustainable at all, but it is still quite impressive. Our hospitals have turned out to be more resilient than previously thought.

    On the other hand, with all the electives/ambulatory surgeries canceled, hospitals have lost the bulk of their incomes that subsidize money-losers such as EDs, so I expect them to have crippling balance sheets going forward. This will likely accelerate consolidation and result in further closures in low access (mostly rural) areas unless there is government intervention.

    I also found that a number of hospitals have been able to expend their ICU beds dramatically (one hospital went from 20 to 150). Obviously that has strained the staff and resources significantly and is not sustainable at all, but it is still quite impressive. Our hospitals have turned out to be more resilient than previously thought.

    Sure. But the expected hospitalizations are running 85% lower than expected, and those latter numbers would have surely crashed the system. For example, from the NYT:

    Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html

    Something is clearly either wrong or drastically changed in the illness model that everyone had been using…

    • Agree: Jack Armstrong
    • Replies: @Twinkie
    I wasn’t disagreeing - merely adding another bit of good news.

    But the number of intensive care beds being used declined for the first time in the crisis, to 4,908, according to daily figures released on Friday. And the total number hospitalized with the virus, 18,569, was far lower than the darkest expectations.
     
    The article doesn’t mention what the models predicted for ICU beds. Do you see that anywhere?
    , @Dube
    I don't know that I'd want to push this as an analogy, but I'm reminded that in the immediate circumstances of 9/11, it was reported that the NYC hospitals expected to be overwhelmed, and they weren't.

    Sorry, I'm trying to type with rubber gloves.
    , @TomSchmidt
    Maybe people avoid hospitals more in NYC than in Italy, where the numbers likely originated, for cost reasons. That's probably helped because of iatrogenic infections in hospitals.
  63. @DanHessinMD
    The point is, mostly everyone in America right now is staying indoors. Presumably people set their thermostats around 70 or 72 everywhere. But the one variable that is different for everyone is indoor humidity. In the colder places, indoor humidity is low. Low humidity seems to be bad for the lungs.

    Here is a Yale Medical School virologist saying the same thing:

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome#How-dry-air-affects-immunity,-viral-spread

    I bought 5 humidifers right after Dan started commenting a month or so ago. They are, at minimum, good for peace of mind because we cough less when they are running.

    • Replies: @Hhsiii
    I bought one a month ago for my office. But I’ve only been to my office once since 3/13/20.
  64. Those graphs seem a little suspicious. If you take the New Y0rk City population of 8.54 million multiplied by the US crude death rate of 8.5/1000/year, divided by 12 months per year, you see that NYC deaths need to average 6049 per month yet they rarely ever even spike that high.

    What counts as an NYC death? Is it anyone who dies while registered to an NYC address, or anyone who dies within NYC city limits?

    I’m guessing that in normal times, many old people who are about to die leave NYC and go to Florida or somewhere. In Corona Times, the dying are not allowed to travel or leave, and Gov. Cuomo is collecting corpses to ramp up the statistics.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad

    I’m guessing that in normal times, many old people who are about to die leave NYC and go to Florida or somewhere.
     
    Yes, but New Yorkers don't come down here to Florida when they are "about to die", they do it years beforehand in retirement, which is why NYC skews younger and those death totals are lower than simple population ratio from the US death totals would indicate.

    Florida is like one of those "roach motels"--

    New Yorkers check in, but they don't check out.
  65. @unit472
    Shockingly the tiny Albany, Georgia 'metro area' has more deaths from Covid than the Atlanta area! In relative terms this would like the Syracuse or Binghamton, New York area having more deaths than the New York metro area.

    That’s where the janitor’s funeral was held.

  66. @Ron Unz
    Well, that huge NYC death-spike tends to confirm that very large numbers of New Yorkers are dying of Coronavirus without showing up in the official totals because they were never tested before their deaths, just as had happened in Lombardy. There was a big story in the NYT this morning saying the same thing.

    Taking those figures into account, I'd think that daily New York Coronavirus deaths have been running well over 1,000 for several days now, possibly even getting close to 1,500/day.

    When that same chart is updated in another few days, I think the fatality-spike for NYC will look like a delta function, and maybe those stubborn Coronavirus Hoaxers will finally give up and admit that they were wrong.

    But I'm still very puzzled why the rate of serious hospitalizations are so much lower than expected. I think the NY officials said the same thing, that they'd expected to see almost 10x more. If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now, and deaths would probably be running more like 4K-5K per day instead of the current figures.

    Perhaps those special drugs are working. Or perhaps the percentage of extremely mild/asymptomatic cases is many times greater than people had believed, and a substantial fraction of all NYC residents have already been infected.

    Would be interesting to see how many New Yorkers obtained prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine from their doctors in March. I obtained a prescription back on March 12 after reading numerous reports snouts the benefits of this drug in fighting CV.

    Many already knew about the benefits of this drug , which caused shortages prior to March 25 , when Cuomo banned doctors from prescribing it. But many New Yorkers already obtained a supply , which is why the drug stores have none left.

    Weeks ago people also began taking zinc and Vitamin D and C …..these vitamins have been sold-out for weeks now on Amazon , my next shipment will not be arriving until May. Maybe the huge increase in vitamin use has reduced the rate of hospitalization ?

    • Agree: Ron Unz
  67. This unfortunate event will cause some trouble for mass transit enthusiasts.

    Pretty much everything that WASP progressives historically wanted–ex. high wages, affordable housing, stable families, social cohesion, middle class values, rule of law, environmental protection, public facilities, quality public services, open space, habitat and species protection, disease control, etc.–is sacrificed to immigration and diversity, under the new regime of minoritarianism uber alles.

    (The lone exception is “women’s rights”–though not apparently women’s sports–of the “oppressed victims” Jewish feminist style, to suppress white fertility and speed replacement, break white cohesion and peel off some white women’s votes to the minoritarian coalition. But only as long as white women know their place.)

    The appeal of “public transit” plummets with diversity. But transit–as everything else, including our health–must be scaraficed on the its sacred altar.

    • Agree: BenKenobi
    • Replies: @Travis
    Is this your Doctor ?

    Alexander Morden, a physician in Queens who is taking the drug in the hope of staving off infection. He has prescribed hydroxychloroquine to about 50 of his patients as a prophylactic and as a treatment to another dozen who have already been infected. “It’s gone. It’s not in the pharmacy now,'' - March 23 article about hydroxychloroquine.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/20/hospitals-doctors-are-wiping-out-supplies-an-unproven-coronavirus-treatment/
    “Both drugs are pretty much depleted right now in the distribution channel and wholesale distributors are reporting both products on back order,''

    Chloroquine phosphate tables and hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets went into shortage on March 9....according to the American Society of Health System Pharmacists. This was a week before Trump mentioned the drugs. https://www.modernhealthcare.com/supply-chain/chloroquine-short-supply-hospitals-buy-bulk
  68. @Ron Unz
    Well, that huge NYC death-spike tends to confirm that very large numbers of New Yorkers are dying of Coronavirus without showing up in the official totals because they were never tested before their deaths, just as had happened in Lombardy. There was a big story in the NYT this morning saying the same thing.

    Taking those figures into account, I'd think that daily New York Coronavirus deaths have been running well over 1,000 for several days now, possibly even getting close to 1,500/day.

    When that same chart is updated in another few days, I think the fatality-spike for NYC will look like a delta function, and maybe those stubborn Coronavirus Hoaxers will finally give up and admit that they were wrong.

    But I'm still very puzzled why the rate of serious hospitalizations are so much lower than expected. I think the NY officials said the same thing, that they'd expected to see almost 10x more. If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now, and deaths would probably be running more like 4K-5K per day instead of the current figures.

    Perhaps those special drugs are working. Or perhaps the percentage of extremely mild/asymptomatic cases is many times greater than people had believed, and a substantial fraction of all NYC residents have already been infected.
  69. @eD
    Transit workers in New York City have pretty much zero interaction with the people riding the trains. Motormen operate the trains from enclosed cabs separate from the passengers. There are no conductors. The MTA even removed the human ticket agents in the booths. Occasionally you will see transit workers doing something on the tracks but these crews don't interact with the public.

    So New York subway trains being crowded would have nothing to do with MTA employees getting sick. The MTA is notorious for making cleaning the stations a high priority, but again the effects of that would be seen with the passengers before being seen with the employees.

    NYCTA subway trains have conductors. They ride in a central motorman’s compartment with an open window and before the doors are closed must look up and down the outside of the train to be sure the doors are clear. Other employees are stationed on busy platforms to control loading. There are many Revenue Agents in booths to assist passengers. In addition to crowds the air is constantly pushed through the tunnels by the piston action of the trains. Highly infectious environment for employee.

  70. @Twinkie
    Subway trains in Tokyo and Seoul are much cleaner than those in NYC, however.

    In the past couple of years, we’ve ridden the subways in HK, Seoul, and several Chinese cities — and also the systems in London and NYC.

    The contrast is hard to believe. Using the systems in NYC and London feels like a trip back in time. The trains and stations are dirty, stuffy, and all-around unpleasant.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    Then there's BART out in the Bay Area. Always a pleasant experience between the junkies and the screeching. I wonder if 1970s New York was like that. Comparing that to Hong Kong-or any subway system in the region-is deeply depressing. Even the Vietnamese are about to open metro systems in Hanoi and Saigon next year.

    There's something so incredibly... I dunno, telling about 21st Century America there. The same place where all the fancy apps are created can't make a first-rate subway system. We have a capital that takes 40 years to get a basic extension done: and the extension doesn't even reach the airport. We've gotten out of the habit of actually producing or engineering useful, vital stuff in favor of fluff and money management and service. That doesn't bode well.

  71. @Achmed E. Newman
    Steve, this is something I thought of today and was planning on asking you. (This post makes it not at all off-topic as I'd planned):

    Have you been out driving on the LA freeways? If not you, do you have friends or family who have? I'd really like to know how they enjoy it, with what's got to be a whole lot less traffic. I mean, I can picture driving in Los Angeles now as though I were on an early-on episode of The Rockford Files.

    Do you have a Trans-Am, Steve? I know, I know, they get 17 mpg on the freeway, so what, gas is basically free!


    (This is the REAL Eagles, with Bernie Leadon and Randy Meisner.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--rAINTn2TE


    Well, my time went too quickly.
    I went lickety-splitly out to my old fifty-five.
    As I pulled away slowly, feelin' so holy,
    God knows I was feelin' alive.
    And now the sun's comin' up.
    I'm ridin' with Lady Luck.
    Freeway cars and trucks...

    The freeways are flowing as well as they did in 60’s. The 405 through West LA in recent years was stop and go basically from 6AM to midnight. Now, you just cruise through.
    A few differences that tell you it’s not actually the 60’s. One is that everyone is driving some sort of TruckUV, or foreign car.
    Another is that people are driving faster than in the old days. Today with the lack of traffic you can be going 75-8o and people are weaving around you. There is a lot of nostalgia for those cool looking cars of the old days, but the reality is they were pieces of crap compared to modern cars. Current cars are both much faster and much easier and safer to drive fast. That’s why rich guys pay Ferrari prices for old American cars and pickups that have been “restomoded” with modern mechanics and electronics.
    Lastly, a driver transported from the 60’s to current day Southern California would look at the ethnicity of drivers around him and wonder if we lost a war or something.

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @BenKenobi

    wonder if we lost a war or something
     
    Eric Striker had an interesting take on this on the last Strike & Mike podcast. Basically that Whites did lose a war, a cultural one, and the 1965 Hart-Celler Act is our version of the Treaty of Versailles.
  72. @Jenner Ickham Errican
    OT: Wow, the author of this NYT article really names the “Joos”, as some commenters here spell it. As Neil Diamond sang, “Beak comin’ to America… today!”

    When Asian-Americans Have to Prove We Belong

    This isn’t the first time we’ve been treated as a threat.

    By Jia “Right Up The” Lynn Yang
     

    Congress enacted a new set of ethnic quotas dreamed up by eugenicists aimed at maintaining their conception of America as a white and Anglo-Saxon nation. By designating some races as more desirable than others, the law sharply restricted Jewish and Italian immigration — and banned nearly all Asians.

    In the years that followed, a small group of Jewish lawmakers fought to abolish the quotas.
     

    But defeating the overall quota system proved more difficult. Faced with a Red Scare climate at its zenith, lawmakers were wary of admitting Eastern and Southern European immigrants, whom they associated with radical political activity. And so to the dismay of Jewish leaders, lawmakers refused to abandon ethnic quotas giving preference to countries like Britain.
     

    Winning the right to naturalize was a watershed moment in Asian-American history. But the fight left others bitter. “It is impossible to compute the amount of harm which the Japanese American Citizens League and Masaoka caused to effective opposition to this legislation,” concluded an analysis conducted by the American Jewish Congress.

    It would take another 13 years of pressure from Jewish lawmakers and activists and support from the Irish-Catholic Kennedy family before race-based quotas were finally abolished from the country’s immigration system.
     

    In the years that followed, a small group of Jewish lawmakers fought to abolish the quotas.

    It would take another 13 years of pressure from Jewish lawmakers and activists and support from the Irish-Catholic Kennedy family before race-based quotas were finally abolished from the country’s immigration system.

    Hmm, sounds like a long Jewish war–insurgency–against the American nation. But i keep being told that’s just my anti-Semitic imagination at work.

    But i guess if it’s spun as a positive heroic struggle … then it’s fine.

    ~~~

    Weird thing with all this “exclusion” and “quota” whining …

    I’ve never once thought that China should allow me to come plop my ass down there. Never once. It’s ridiculous, why would they? And it certainly does not bother me.

    Heck, i never even thought Ireland or England or Germany should have to take me back. I’m a pretty nice guy, healthy and would do my best to fit in. But they are supposed to run their joints for the benefit of their citizens.

    It’s a very weird psychological tick for some group to be so obsessed with the fact that some other people somewhere are happy with their own deal and don’t particularly want you around. And continually yammering and whining about it.

    I don’t know if there is a name for this psychological disorder? Best i can come up with is “asshole”.

    • Agree: MBlanc46, JMcG
    • Replies: @Jenner Ickham Errican

    Hmm, sounds like a long Jewish war–insurgency–against the American nation. But i keep being told that’s just my anti-Semitic imagination at work.
     
    AD, for a laugh click on the “Joos” link in my above comment, and scroll down…

    Eight pages, 20 posts per page, of Jack D yammering about yellow-marked “Joos”. He’s obsessed with defending them, whoever they are! Either he doth protest too much, or they’re really unpopular.
  73. @Brian Reilly
    Jack, Just give the warm weather and a completely unemployed, non rent paying, broke, diverse bunch of city residents, and delays in the promised heliopter money a chance to marinate, then stew. The results will be a mess of truly epic prportions.

    All you cops in diverse urban areas: You have a very short period of time to figure out what you are going to do. It will either be in a real urban war, or find someplace else to work. Don't worry about your pension, that shit is all gone anyhow. Concentrate on figuring out if you really can live with shooting a few people who may or may not have it coming. This will not be a drill. Once the temp hits 80, it will be game on.

    Barbed wire futures are up, or if they’re not, they should be.

    I have a mix of barbed wire, field fence, bungee sticks and some truly obnoxious plants with spines that don’t let go.

  74. @prime noticer
    is this thing a real threat or not? Democrats sure don't act like it. wouldn't the subway be THE FIRST thing shut down if this virus was a real threat? that the subway is STILL running shows that, yet again, the Democrats are full of shit liars. probably all the above ground passenger rail in New York is still running too.

    NYC Democrat assholes reserve the right to infect everybody and not sacrifice a single thing. the rest of the nation's enmity for them is well earned.

    by the way, what is Michael Bloomberg doing? the richest man in NYC is still not donating a dollar to help. what a transparent parasite shitbag.

    Jack Dorsey just put down a billion. that's how you do it.

    $1billion he donated to his own fund…not to the Red Cross or something.

    • Replies: @anon
    $1billion he donated to his own fund

    http://wmwmsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/human-fund.jpg
  75. @Ron Unz

    I also found that a number of hospitals have been able to expend their ICU beds dramatically (one hospital went from 20 to 150). Obviously that has strained the staff and resources significantly and is not sustainable at all, but it is still quite impressive. Our hospitals have turned out to be more resilient than previously thought.
     
    Sure. But the expected hospitalizations are running 85% lower than expected, and those latter numbers would have surely crashed the system. For example, from the NYT:

    Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end.
     
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html

    Something is clearly either wrong or drastically changed in the illness model that everyone had been using...

    I wasn’t disagreeing – merely adding another bit of good news.

    But the number of intensive care beds being used declined for the first time in the crisis, to 4,908, according to daily figures released on Friday. And the total number hospitalized with the virus, 18,569, was far lower than the darkest expectations.

    The article doesn’t mention what the models predicted for ICU beds. Do you see that anywhere?

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke

    The article doesn’t mention what the models predicted for ICU beds. Do you see that anywhere?
     
    On a tangentially-related subject, is it difficult to keep track of covid-19 recoveries? Because Virginia is apparently not doing so. Meanwhile, Ralph Northam had time in his schedule to sign a gun control bill.
  76. @Spud Boy
    If you’ve never ridden a train in Tokyo, you haven’t experienced mass transit crowding. They have workers who literally shove people into the cars as the doors are closing. One time, I swear I could have lifted my feet off the ground while standing, and not fallen.

    Sounds like me trying to board an in-bound Jubilee Line train at St John’s Wood at rush hour in the 1980s.

  77. @Anonymous
    NYC , particularly Manhattan, is best viewed as a theme park where there are a lot of , not Little Hitlers, but Little Disneys. In Disneyland, only Walt had his own apartment, but in Manhattan, millions do. The difference is that most people have the sense not to really want to LIVE in Disneyland, as convenient as its close agglomeration of rides and attractions might be.

    Huh. Well, everyone lives wherever he or she lives in my experience, Anonymous[427]. I don’t see Manhattan that way–but then again you’d argue that I wouldn’t, would I? How is it where you are, whoever you are?

  78. @Reg Cæsar
    I'd feel safer on a Chinese subway than in a Hummer in spacious Detroit.

    On a Russian one, too, though not as much:


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Metro#Notable_incidents

    What is cooler than a Silver Streak in real life in Chicago?

  79. Bloody Loco is not helping things.

  80. @The Last Real Calvinist
    Hong Kong's MTR has a ridership almost exactly the same as NYC's subway, i.e. about 1.7 billion/year.

    So far as I can recall from the news here, there has not been a single case of COVID-19 traced to being spread on the MTR, or on any other form of public transport, for that matter. I guess there are likely a few untraceable cases here and there where it might have occurred, but it doesn't seem to be a big problem.

    The vast majority of cases that have been identified as actually having been transmitted here have been either family members, at big group gatherings (e.g. the 'Buddha Hall' cases early in the crisis here), or at bars/gyms/close public gatherings.

    Yesterday HK had 16 new cases, nearly all of whom were arrivals from overseas who were already infected.

    The MTR has continued to run throughout the lockdown here. At times it's still very busy, with people standing close together for significant stretches of time. And yet there's very little indication that this has been a serious path for transmission.

    Why not? I've got a couple of simple theories.

    First, the MTR does an excellent job of keeping its trains clean, and of course has enhanced their cleaning and disinfecting during the crisis. MTR trains are also modern and well-ventilated.

    Second, everybody's wearing masks, and have been since January.

    Second, everybody’s wearing masks, and have been since January.

    B*I*N*G*O

    Mask are pretty much all you need to prevent casual we’re-breathing-the-same-air transmission.

    And if you do get the virus with your mask, guess what? Your dose will be tiny and your immune system–unless it is really compromised by age or your past bad behavior or some bad genetics–will quickly catch on, catch up and beat the virus into submission.

    This isn’t exactly rocket science … various thinkers had the idea of “germs” causing disease for a few thousand years and we’ve had a very solid understanding since Pasteur and others in the mid/late 19th century.

    But our Center for Disease Control told Americans they were useless. I can only conclude that this is a case of “regulatory capture” and instead of working for Americans the CDC is on the side of disease.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    We've been over this many times. They HAD to lie to you because they knew that the supply of masks was inadequate (having been outsourced to China) and they wanted to preserve the limited quantity for medical personnel. They were lying for a good cause!
  81. @James Speaks
    Is the subway the reason why NYC was hit so hard? True, crowded conditions facilitate transmission of the virus, but so does stupidity.

    The transit agency was late to distribute disinfectant to clean shared work spaces, struggled to keep track of sick workers and failed to inform their colleagues about possible exposure to the virus, according to interviews with two dozen transit workers.
     
    and

    As the virus spread, many workers became so concerned that they took measures into their own hands: They cordoned off seats with duct tape to distance drivers from riders and used their own masks and homemade disinfectant at work, only to be reprimanded by supervisors.
     
    and

    The authority is disinfecting train cars and buses every three days and has urged riders to wait for empty trains to mitigate the overcrowding problems caused by reduced service.
     
    ... every three days???
    or
    ... to wait for empty trains???

    In Albany, Georgia, a funeral attended by a congregation of others was the triggering event for a large outbreak.

    Stupid is as stupid does.

    Yeah, I took buses until about 3 weeks ago. The bus drivers eventually cordoned off their area and told you to enter in the back, stopped taking fares.

    I work for the city and we aren’t putting contracts through. Contractors will continue to work (Hopefully) but won’t get paid. For a few months at least. Pretty obvious. Governments that don’t print their own currency bankrupted themselves, spending massively while destroying their income stream. NY already had issues, albeit doing fine during the Wall Street boom.

    • Thanks: James Speaks, TomSchmidt
  82. @AnotherDad

    In the years that followed, a small group of Jewish lawmakers fought to abolish the quotas.

    ...

    It would take another 13 years of pressure from Jewish lawmakers and activists and support from the Irish-Catholic Kennedy family before race-based quotas were finally abolished from the country’s immigration system.
     
    Hmm, sounds like a long Jewish war--insurgency--against the American nation. But i keep being told that's just my anti-Semitic imagination at work.

    But i guess if it's spun as a positive heroic struggle ... then it's fine.

    ~~~

    Weird thing with all this "exclusion" and "quota" whining ...

    I've never once thought that China should allow me to come plop my ass down there. Never once. It's ridiculous, why would they? And it certainly does not bother me.

    Heck, i never even thought Ireland or England or Germany should have to take me back. I'm a pretty nice guy, healthy and would do my best to fit in. But they are supposed to run their joints for the benefit of their citizens.

    It's a very weird psychological tick for some group to be so obsessed with the fact that some other people somewhere are happy with their own deal and don't particularly want you around. And continually yammering and whining about it.

    I don't know if there is a name for this psychological disorder? Best i can come up with is "asshole".

    Hmm, sounds like a long Jewish war–insurgency–against the American nation. But i keep being told that’s just my anti-Semitic imagination at work.

    AD, for a laugh click on the “Joos” link in my above comment, and scroll down…

    Eight pages, 20 posts per page, of Jack D yammering about yellow-marked “Joos”. He’s obsessed with defending them, whoever they are! Either he doth protest too much, or they’re really unpopular.

    • Agree: Jack Armstrong
  83. @Steve Sailer
    I bought 5 humidifers right after Dan started commenting a month or so ago. They are, at minimum, good for peace of mind because we cough less when they are running.

    I bought one a month ago for my office. But I’ve only been to my office once since 3/13/20.

  84. @Intelligent Dasein
    Those graphs seem a little suspicious. If you take the New Y0rk City population of 8.54 million multiplied by the US crude death rate of 8.5/1000/year, divided by 12 months per year, you see that NYC deaths need to average 6049 per month yet they rarely ever even spike that high.

    What counts as an NYC death? Is it anyone who dies while registered to an NYC address, or anyone who dies within NYC city limits?

    I'm guessing that in normal times, many old people who are about to die leave NYC and go to Florida or somewhere. In Corona Times, the dying are not allowed to travel or leave, and Gov. Cuomo is collecting corpses to ramp up the statistics.

    I’m guessing that in normal times, many old people who are about to die leave NYC and go to Florida or somewhere.

    Yes, but New Yorkers don’t come down here to Florida when they are “about to die”, they do it years beforehand in retirement, which is why NYC skews younger and those death totals are lower than simple population ratio from the US death totals would indicate.

    Florida is like one of those “roach motels”–

    New Yorkers check in, but they don’t check out.

  85. @DanHessinMD
    Annual ridership of Tokyo subway system: 3.5 billion

    Annual ridership of Seoul subway system: 1.9 billion

    Annual ridership of NY subway system: 1.7 billion

    Masks are clearly very important. It should be noted also that in Korea and Japan, people humidify their indoor spaces with humidifiers during the winter.

    It should be noted also that in Korea and Japan, people humidify their indoor spaces with humidifiers during the winter.

    It should be noted that most Japanese don’t have central heating in their homes (nor in many other indoors spaces). They get by with various forms of space heater. In America, portable kerosene heaters are mainly popular among folks in the ghetto who have had their power disconnected for nonpayment, but in Japan they have widespread popularity. Often they do put a kettle on top, which both adds humidity and provides a ready source of hot water. Or they have a device that looks like a cross between a coffee table and a bed quilt. It has a small electric heating element embedded in the underside of the table . You and your family stick your legs under the table and the quilt holds in the warmth. As long as you sit there, it’s quite cozy, at least for your lower body.

    In any case, since humidity is relative, keeping your house at a toasty 55F (plus leaving a window cracked open so you don’t suffocate from the kerosene fumes) tends to raise the indoor humidity. But not in a way that most Americans would appreciate.

    • LOL: Johann Ricke
  86. @Ron Unz
    Well, that huge NYC death-spike tends to confirm that very large numbers of New Yorkers are dying of Coronavirus without showing up in the official totals because they were never tested before their deaths, just as had happened in Lombardy. There was a big story in the NYT this morning saying the same thing.

    Taking those figures into account, I'd think that daily New York Coronavirus deaths have been running well over 1,000 for several days now, possibly even getting close to 1,500/day.

    When that same chart is updated in another few days, I think the fatality-spike for NYC will look like a delta function, and maybe those stubborn Coronavirus Hoaxers will finally give up and admit that they were wrong.

    But I'm still very puzzled why the rate of serious hospitalizations are so much lower than expected. I think the NY officials said the same thing, that they'd expected to see almost 10x more. If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now, and deaths would probably be running more like 4K-5K per day instead of the current figures.

    Perhaps those special drugs are working. Or perhaps the percentage of extremely mild/asymptomatic cases is many times greater than people had believed, and a substantial fraction of all NYC residents have already been infected.

    Around March 15 I had a 100.5 fever for a week and a light cough. In NYC. My wife the week before. We probably had it. Barely noticed it.

  87. It seems the experts were wrong. The NY Times today:

    One of the models, created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, which is supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, was initially based mainly on data from the epidemic in Wuhan, China, which many experts now consider unreliable. Outbreaks in Italy and Spain peaked more recently and provide a fuller picture of how quickly infections can be brought under control.

    It’s almost like Bill Gates had a financial incentive in exaggerating the danger of this virus.

    But what about Ron Unz, who said 50,000 deaths in NY was baked in the cake? And that the final number would likely be in the hundreds of thousands? What was his motivation? Clicks, probably. Now I see he’s running around like a headless chicken trying to explain his position while threatening to ban “hoaxers,” which presumably includes people who scoffed at his catastrophic (and wrong) modeling. Hey, maybe you can’t apply compound interest financial theories to pandemics. Who knew?

    • Agree: William Badwhite
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Who knew? We knew! Kung Flu? Boo-hoo!

    - A.E. Suess


    (I think he's a brutally honest guy that got on the wrong track believing math can model anything, even with bad data and missing processes. His best be is just to lay off for a while. We'll forgive and forget.)
    , @vhrm

    But what about Ron Unz, who said 50,000 deaths in NY was baked in the cake? And that the final number would likely be in the hundreds of thousands? What was his motivation? Clicks, probably. Now I see he’s running around like a headless chicken trying to explain his position while threatening to ban “hoaxers,” which presumably includes people who scoffed at his catastrophic (and wrong) modeling. Hey, maybe you can’t apply compound interest financial theories to pandemics. Who knew?
     
    NY is already at 10,000k confirmed and it's not over yet. Not over in terms of the current sick people or in terms of future waves (which might be this winter but also could be next month).


    There is clearly some THERE there and these things cab get out of hand very quickly.

    So I think it's admirable that governments starred to act proactively.

    What i can't stand is that they cranked it up to economy destroying police state right away instead of taking a more measured approach (like ... Korea, Japan and Sweden).

    AND that now they're keeping it locked up because they have no f'in idea how to climb down from this tree they've ran up on their panic.
  88. @Alfa158
    The freeways are flowing as well as they did in 60’s. The 405 through West LA in recent years was stop and go basically from 6AM to midnight. Now, you just cruise through.
    A few differences that tell you it’s not actually the 60’s. One is that everyone is driving some sort of TruckUV, or foreign car.
    Another is that people are driving faster than in the old days. Today with the lack of traffic you can be going 75-8o and people are weaving around you. There is a lot of nostalgia for those cool looking cars of the old days, but the reality is they were pieces of crap compared to modern cars. Current cars are both much faster and much easier and safer to drive fast. That’s why rich guys pay Ferrari prices for old American cars and pickups that have been “restomoded” with modern mechanics and electronics.
    Lastly, a driver transported from the 60’s to current day Southern California would look at the ethnicity of drivers around him and wonder if we lost a war or something.

    wonder if we lost a war or something

    Eric Striker had an interesting take on this on the last Strike & Mike podcast. Basically that Whites did lose a war, a cultural one, and the 1965 Hart-Celler Act is our version of the Treaty of Versailles.

    • Agree: Alden
  89. @Thoughts
    They have to walk off the Subways...and to walk off the Subway you must...Go through a crowd

    Rinse and repeat with word 'on'

    Did you know that there are restrooms hidden on Subway platforms specifically for train conductors to use?

    That's a cool fact for ya

    Subsidiary facts for ya. Today all of these public unhidden restrooms are located at the beginning and end of the subway lines. At one time every subway station had a public restroom but were closed when they became shooting galleries and crime warrens probably starting in the 60s.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    Many were still open in the 80s.
  90. @DanHessinMD
    Leaders in new deaths today, in order:

    New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut, Indiana

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    I see zero Southern states in the top eight; Florida, Louisiana and Texas have all dropped down the ranks.

    Here is a map from April first about who is not shutting down:
    https://twitter.com/RobertBryan4/status/1245720320931135489/photo/1

    Look what we have!

    The Southern states have been the worst behaved with social distancing. And what's more, the Southern states have much worse baseline health.

    If social distancing were the main driver all the southern states would be getting hammered. None of them are anywhere near the top of the list of new deaths. Meanwhile the top seven states in deaths, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut all have Democrat governors that have imposed a total lock-down.

    And yet!

    Cold, dry air is where this thing spreads. Everyone is now locked indoors and so indoor humidity is the dominant variable as indoor temperature is around 72 everywhere. Meanwhile indoor conditions are very dry in colder climates.

    Steve, my good man! This is a really strong correlation now, right? Surely worthy of big note, I think. Hundreds of lives at least can be saved by humidifying.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/humidity-helps-in-the-fight-against-covid-19-virologists-report/

    Steve I urge you to re-up the need to humidify. It will save many lives, I am certain!

    It will also show where we can open up first and where we need to be more careful!

    I see zero Southern states in the top eight

    Even if you push Southern to South of Rio Grande. Almost zero impact in Mexico, Argentina, Chile …. No Video of mass graves outside of Italy, Spain, U.S. in Western Hemisphere AFAIK, except corpses rotting on sidewalks in Ecuador.

  91. @ATBOTL
    DC Metro, BART and MARTA are more like hybrid subway, commuter train systems. They stretch deep into outer suburbs. This is how all the new subway systems in the world are being built. NYC subway service is only inside of the city limits. The region also has the PATH subway connecting NYC to NJ, which is the sixth largest system in the USA, three massive commuter train systems and a few light rail lines in NJ. The level of crowding on NYC Subway trains, commuter trains and especially PATH trains is absurd.

    I once did the NJ Transit to PATH commute and I never got a seat on NJT in the morning. I had to stand for almost about hour or more, often while waiting through long delays. Then the PATH train was stuffed full of people, largely Indian H1B workers, like sardines in a can. PATH is by far the most crowded and strained transit system in America. On the way home, I not infrequently had to wait for the second PATH train, as the first one was completely full so that not one more person could fit. This is why NYC and North Jersey are the epicenters. It was spreading for weeks on these trains before people started dying in large numbers.

    NYC subway service is only inside of the city limits

    Because NYC has many times the population of DC or SF or Atlanta, you have to go a MUCH longer distance before the suburbs begin. In Philly, the first stop in the suburbs on the Main Line is about 15 minutes from the downtown station. In NY if you are going out to LI, 15 min after you leave Penn Station you’re still in downtown Brooklyn and then you have all of Queens to go thru and the closest suburb outside the city line is a good half hour or more away from Penn Station (and it’s barely a suburb). If you are driving down Jamaica Avenue you might not even realize that you have left Queens and are now in Nassau County. To really get somewhere that is slightly less crowded is more like 45 mins minimum on the LIRR.

    • Replies: @Prosa123
    While there indeed are some areas along the city's eastern border where it's very hard to tell by visual clues whether you're in Queens or Nassau, there's one way to be 100% sure: take two identical neighboring houses, one on each side of the border, and the property taxes on the Nassau one are likely to be 3x those on the Queens counterpart.
  92. @AnotherDad


    This unfortunate event will cause some trouble for mass transit enthusiasts.
     
    Pretty much everything that WASP progressives historically wanted--ex. high wages, affordable housing, stable families, social cohesion, middle class values, rule of law, environmental protection, public facilities, quality public services, open space, habitat and species protection, disease control, etc.--is sacrificed to immigration and diversity, under the new regime of minoritarianism uber alles.

    (The lone exception is "women's rights"--though not apparently women's sports--of the "oppressed victims" Jewish feminist style, to suppress white fertility and speed replacement, break white cohesion and peel off some white women's votes to the minoritarian coalition. But only as long as white women know their place.)

    The appeal of "public transit" plummets with diversity. But transit--as everything else, including our health--must be scaraficed on the its sacred altar.

    Is this your Doctor ?

    Alexander Morden, a physician in Queens who is taking the drug in the hope of staving off infection. He has prescribed hydroxychloroquine to about 50 of his patients as a prophylactic and as a treatment to another dozen who have already been infected. “It’s gone. It’s not in the pharmacy now,” – March 23 article about hydroxychloroquine.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/20/hospitals-doctors-are-wiping-out-supplies-an-unproven-coronavirus-treatment/
    “Both drugs are pretty much depleted right now in the distribution channel and wholesale distributors are reporting both products on back order,”

    Chloroquine phosphate tables and hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets went into shortage on March 9….according to the American Society of Health System Pharmacists. This was a week before Trump mentioned the drugs. https://www.modernhealthcare.com/supply-chain/chloroquine-short-supply-hospitals-buy-bulk

  93. @AnotherDad

    Second, everybody’s wearing masks, and have been since January.
     
    B*I*N*G*O

    Mask are pretty much all you need to prevent casual we're-breathing-the-same-air transmission.

    And if you do get the virus with your mask, guess what? Your dose will be tiny and your immune system--unless it is really compromised by age or your past bad behavior or some bad genetics--will quickly catch on, catch up and beat the virus into submission.

    This isn't exactly rocket science ... various thinkers had the idea of "germs" causing disease for a few thousand years and we've had a very solid understanding since Pasteur and others in the mid/late 19th century.

    But our Center for Disease Control told Americans they were useless. I can only conclude that this is a case of "regulatory capture" and instead of working for Americans the CDC is on the side of disease.

    We’ve been over this many times. They HAD to lie to you because they knew that the supply of masks was inadequate (having been outsourced to China) and they wanted to preserve the limited quantity for medical personnel. They were lying for a good cause!

    • Replies: @Father O'Hara
    Whatever you say,Boomer!
    , @AnotherDad


    We’ve been over this many times. They HAD to lie to you because they knew that the supply of masks was inadequate (having been outsourced to China) and they wanted to preserve the limited quantity for medical personnel. They were lying for a good cause!
     
    I've heard your argument. They screwed up--pants down--and were doing CYA.

    But what they could have done is told the truth:
    -- Everyone should mask up in enclosed public spaces.
    -- Perfection not required. Even a mask made from a cotton T-shirt is helpful.
    -- If both sides are masked, even with inferior materials, the chance of airborne transmission drops to noise and that vector will be closed off.
    -- And explicit handling/reuse info. Behavior actually doesn't have to be "perfect". (Get one little virus on your finger from touching your mask isn't the same as breathing in droplets form some super-shedder-spreader.)

    If necessary simple ban public--non-medical--sale of N95s for a month or so until the supply recovers. (They've banned basically everything else!) With an explicit demand to buy any and all supply until they declare the market open for all.

    Sure, our demographics aren't what they were in 1960, but Americans aren't a bunch of complete nimrods. Telling the truth and asking people to do the right thing is good policy.
    , @Rob
    If the affirmative action Surgeon General signed off on that, he needs to resign so his successor can restore confidence in his office. It doesn’t do to have a hoaxer in a role like that. Whether the hoax had a good cause or not.

    I’m sure that if Trump does request that he resign, he will find a noose in his office, and be untouchable.
  94. @James Braxton
    $1billion he donated to his own fund...not to the Red Cross or something.

    $1billion he donated to his own fund

  95. @Dave Pinsen
    Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    - Mass transit/reducing cars
    - High density housing
    - Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones
    - Open borders
    - Muh ethnic restaurants/food trucks
    - Outsourcing to China

    Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    – Mass transit/reducing cars

    Yep, a huge mistake. Maybe Trump could get the economy booming again with massive spending on new roads and freeways. I’d love to see that.

    – High density housing

    Another huge mistake. A house on a quarter-acre block with a back yard is infinitely better for raising kids and is better for psychological and physical health.

    – Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones

    Reusable shopping bags are simply gross. Pathogen magnets.

    • Replies: @but an humble craftsman
    Ever heard of a washing machine?
  96. @PennTothal
    Always remember the most important axiom of this pandemic: Italy is the outlier.

    All of the models that had the U.S. following Italy with a 11-12 day lag have been falsified except in the NY metro area.

    It is likely that the strain of virus that spread in Asia (to Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, etc) is less virulent than the Italian strain.

    It is the Italian strain that is primarily spreading in the NY metro area. So maybe it takes a few hits to create disaster, just one hit may not be enough. Maybe disaster (NY Metro) requires: 1. Italian strain of the virus + 2. Crowded, densely-packed living, subways, etc. + 3. Cold, dry air + 4. Mask-averse or poorly compliant populace.

    The southern U.S. (New Orleans, Houston, etc) may only have 2 out of the 4 necessary hits and may never experience disaster.

    I regularly listen to the War Nerd podcast (highly recommended, lefty politics aside). Over the past 6 months or so they have had a regular guest from Lombardy discussing the military and political history of Venice. Anyway, now this guy Annibale happens to be in lockdown, and they have had several discussions with him about that. The core hot zone is the area about 20-30 miles east and northeast of Milan, e.g. Bergamo. It’s been much worse there than anywhere else. He said Milan has had a lot of cases, but it’s just not the same intensity. He commented that something else is going on in this area that isn’t well understood. I’ve seen reference to this idea elsewhere. Perhaps it’s some unlucky confluence of super spreaders that really got things going.

    I think you are onto something with the Italian vs. Japan/Korea virus strains, too.

    Six weeks ago, I was really concerned about multiple NYC-like situations in the US. With Wuhan, the Chinese were able to isolate it and then reinforce the medical and logistics situation from outside. I had assumed that we would have 20 distinct regional outbreaks nationwide, so everything goes to shit all at once and the logistical systems break down and so forth. Very glad that hasn’t happened.

    But I am still very worried about next fall and winter.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Maybe in Bergamo a superspreader was, say, a pharmaceutical salesperson calling on doctors or hospital purchasing agents or something unlucky like that.
  97. @BenKenobi
    Vancouver has vacated all bus and Skytrain fares, which seems counterintuitive. Making mass transit free doesn’t exactly discourage ridership, even though the numbers are massively down (mostly because people have no jobs, and thus don’t need to commute).

    Making mass transit free doesn’t exactly discourage ridership, even though the numbers are massively down (mostly because people have no jobs, and thus don’t need to commute).

    Although making it free can cause it to be used by piss-bums, which will discourage other people from using it.

  98. @Reg Cæsar
    The PATH trains are sixth in total ridership and second in riders-per-mile?

    I've wondered how long a trip you could take linking commuter rail systems. Right now it looks like it's Waterbury, Ct. to Newark-- not NJ, but Delaware, which I'm told is pronounced differently.

    MBTA plans to extends to Fall River by 2023. When that happens, you could go from Newburyport on Cape Ann via Block Island summer ferries and Montauk LIRR all the way to Delaware.

    We once journeyed from Albany's Amtrak station in Rensselaer to Newark (NJ) Airport by rail. It took six* separate rail systems.

    In contrast, check out Henry Huntington's Pacific Electric lines in Southern California a century ago:


    https://i1.wp.com/www.transitmap.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/tumblr_pekjn8EN8h1r54c4oo1_1280.png?w=1280&ssl=1


    *Amtrak, Metro North, MTA, PATH, NJ Transit, & EWR terminal shuttle

    New London, Connecticut (Shore Line East) to Newark, Delaware is the longest commuter rail journey, assuming the subway connection in Manhattan counts. If it’s okay to use Amtrak/Uber/whatever for the 18 miles between Newark and Perryville, Maryland, the commuter journey will go all the the way south to Fredericksburg, Virginia.

  99. @ls0928
    I regularly listen to the War Nerd podcast (highly recommended, lefty politics aside). Over the past 6 months or so they have had a regular guest from Lombardy discussing the military and political history of Venice. Anyway, now this guy Annibale happens to be in lockdown, and they have had several discussions with him about that. The core hot zone is the area about 20-30 miles east and northeast of Milan, e.g. Bergamo. It's been much worse there than anywhere else. He said Milan has had a lot of cases, but it's just not the same intensity. He commented that something else is going on in this area that isn't well understood. I've seen reference to this idea elsewhere. Perhaps it's some unlucky confluence of super spreaders that really got things going.

    I think you are onto something with the Italian vs. Japan/Korea virus strains, too.

    Six weeks ago, I was really concerned about multiple NYC-like situations in the US. With Wuhan, the Chinese were able to isolate it and then reinforce the medical and logistics situation from outside. I had assumed that we would have 20 distinct regional outbreaks nationwide, so everything goes to shit all at once and the logistical systems break down and so forth. Very glad that hasn't happened.

    But I am still very worried about next fall and winter.

    Maybe in Bergamo a superspreader was, say, a pharmaceutical salesperson calling on doctors or hospital purchasing agents or something unlucky like that.

  100. As I understand it, the cramped crew facilities are the most likely source of viral spread among transit workers.

  101. @Jack D

    NYC subway service is only inside of the city limits
     
    Because NYC has many times the population of DC or SF or Atlanta, you have to go a MUCH longer distance before the suburbs begin. In Philly, the first stop in the suburbs on the Main Line is about 15 minutes from the downtown station. In NY if you are going out to LI, 15 min after you leave Penn Station you're still in downtown Brooklyn and then you have all of Queens to go thru and the closest suburb outside the city line is a good half hour or more away from Penn Station (and it's barely a suburb). If you are driving down Jamaica Avenue you might not even realize that you have left Queens and are now in Nassau County. To really get somewhere that is slightly less crowded is more like 45 mins minimum on the LIRR.

    While there indeed are some areas along the city’s eastern border where it’s very hard to tell by visual clues whether you’re in Queens or Nassau, there’s one way to be 100% sure: take two identical neighboring houses, one on each side of the border, and the property taxes on the Nassau one are likely to be 3x those on the Queens counterpart.

  102. Another poster here mentioned this fact a few days ago:

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/new-york-has-thrown-away-20000-hospital-beds-complicating-coronavirus-fight/

    Actually, it’s closer to 21,o00 hospital beds that NYC has shed over the last twenty years.

    They closed two of their five city morgues too, just three years ago.

  103. @James Speaks
    Is the subway the reason why NYC was hit so hard? True, crowded conditions facilitate transmission of the virus, but so does stupidity.

    The transit agency was late to distribute disinfectant to clean shared work spaces, struggled to keep track of sick workers and failed to inform their colleagues about possible exposure to the virus, according to interviews with two dozen transit workers.
     
    and

    As the virus spread, many workers became so concerned that they took measures into their own hands: They cordoned off seats with duct tape to distance drivers from riders and used their own masks and homemade disinfectant at work, only to be reprimanded by supervisors.
     
    and

    The authority is disinfecting train cars and buses every three days and has urged riders to wait for empty trains to mitigate the overcrowding problems caused by reduced service.
     
    ... every three days???
    or
    ... to wait for empty trains???

    In Albany, Georgia, a funeral attended by a congregation of others was the triggering event for a large outbreak.

    Stupid is as stupid does.

    “Better Than Ezra”?*

    In A Station of the MTA (2020)

    “The apparition of these faces in a crowd;

    Petals on a wet, black [bier].”

    FIFY

    https://www.gradesaver.com/ezra-pound-poems/study-guide/summary-in-a-station-of-the-metro-1913

    * https://whynameitthat.blogspot.com/2013/02/better-than-ezra.html

    [MORE]

    See Also – Drunken Idiotic Idiom: Crying in my Corona bier

    • Replies: @James Speaks

    “Better Than Ezra”?*
     
    Naw. Too many power chords, not enough notes.
  104. @Jack Armstrong
    OFF TOPIC

    Stay home!

    With 19 dead, 47 more wounded by gunfire, Chicago sees most violent 5-day span of 2020

    The outburst dwarfed the numbers from the same period in 2019; then, as now, temperatures reached the 70s. From April 7 to April 11, 2019, 13 people were killed and 26 wounded in shootings, according to Chicago Police data.

    By Sam Charles Apr 10, 2020, 6:35pm CDT

    Amid a statewide stay-at-home order, Chicago saw the most violent five-day span of the year earlier this week, with 60 people shot between Sunday and Thursday.

    Of those shot, 17 died and 43 were wounded.

    Two more were killed in other ways: a man pushed in front of a Red Line train in the Loop on Tuesday, and a man stabbed late Sunday on the West Side.

    Victims ranged in age from 5 to 66 years; 10 were younger than 18.

    The five-day outburst of violence dwarfed the numbers recorded during the same time period in 2019 — then, like now, temperatures reached the 70s. From April 7 to April 11, 2019, 13 people were killed and another 26 wounded in shootings, according to Chicago Police data.

    With temperatures reaching summer-like highs Tuesday, the city saw its single most violent day of the year: eight killed and 15 others — including a 5-year-old girl — wounded in shootings. On average, a shooting occurred once every 83 minutes on Tuesday.

    Full story here: https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime
     

    After intensive studies and peer reviews, a coalition of sociologists, psychologists, and victimologists has finally discovered the root cause of black on black killings.

    Temperatures in the 70s in spring, 80s and 9os in the summer, 60-40s in the fall and 40-10s in winter.

  105. @The Last Real Calvinist
    In the past couple of years, we've ridden the subways in HK, Seoul, and several Chinese cities -- and also the systems in London and NYC.

    The contrast is hard to believe. Using the systems in NYC and London feels like a trip back in time. The trains and stations are dirty, stuffy, and all-around unpleasant.

    Then there’s BART out in the Bay Area. Always a pleasant experience between the junkies and the screeching. I wonder if 1970s New York was like that. Comparing that to Hong Kong-or any subway system in the region-is deeply depressing. Even the Vietnamese are about to open metro systems in Hanoi and Saigon next year.

    There’s something so incredibly… I dunno, telling about 21st Century America there. The same place where all the fancy apps are created can’t make a first-rate subway system. We have a capital that takes 40 years to get a basic extension done: and the extension doesn’t even reach the airport. We’ve gotten out of the habit of actually producing or engineering useful, vital stuff in favor of fluff and money management and service. That doesn’t bode well.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    I once rode the train from San Jose to San Francisco, whatever it's called; the cars were oddly proportioned and the windows so small it felt like going to the big house on an armored prison train of some sort. All that was missing was Nicholas Cage with flowing locks staging a revolt against the screws. On the positive side, it was at least fairly empty.
  106. If the subways and all public transportation in NYC are still running, why is this occurring? Would have thought that for public safety the Mayor or Governor would have ordered them all closed down until the virus has run its course. With all public transportation not running, that certainly would help enforce social distancing and perhaps see a slower rate of infections.

    Don’t know, not there. But if NY’s public transportation is still running, why is this? During times like these, that makes no sense whatsoever. Just asking for more infections.

    • Replies: @Telemachos
    The subways and buses cannot possibly be 'shut down'. Even by the standards of the most extremely limited idea of what is essential, there are thousands or tens of thousands of workers who are indisputably essential. People who work in supermarkets, security guards, people who work in the post office, people who keep electricity etc running, the army of 'home health aids' without whom our numerous elderly and disabled people couldn't function, nurses, people who work with the homeless, etc etc etc.

    All these people have to get to work, crisis or no crisis, and unless someone is going to pay for all of them to ride taxicabs the subway and buses have to keep running for their sake.

  107. @unit472
    Elevators are big in NYC too. Both for office and residential buildings. I use a plastic garbage bag when I get in my little condo elevator so I don't touch the buttons.

    I was reading about the Ruby Princess, another Carnival cruise ship for which the Australian government has begun a criminal investigation. Passengers who weren't oblivious to the risk became concerned how people were crowding on to the elevators. Glad some government is going after the cruise companies. IMHO the executives and captains should be prosecuted for murder for any cruise that left port after the Diamond Princess was quarantined.

    Yes, elevators with air fans that blow / circulate but do not exchange the air within the car and select your floor buttons that every passenger touches.

    One source: “Passenger elevators, which are used for delivering patrons to a designated floor, are obviously the most abundant in the city, with more than 66, 602 of them in use as of 2015.”

  108. Hail says: • Website

    Slamming public transportation as something very, very dangerous (Mass-Killer Viruses! Fear! Danger!) , something to be avoided, I guess by implication to be dismantled if possible, and anyway certainly not to be encouraged in any way so as to avoid future Corona Apocalypses, is an example of what I call the phenomenon of “Corona Opportunism” Everyone is piling on pushing their pet issues. We are all liable to lean towards such, in this Corona Mass Delusion event.

    Relatedly:

    [The CoronaPanic] is comparable in political terms to the chaotic aftermath of a coup d’etat which got out of control and had unclear results, a government collapse followed by a period of political-vacuum; people emerge to push agendas, test the waters, and — if no countervailing force — boldly try to seize power and/or otherwise “jockey for political advantage” and try to ride the coattails of the new order. (“I, for one, welcome our new ant overlords.” –Kent Brockman)

    But think this through: Do people really want to live in a world with no ‘public transportation’ at all, out of fear of a Corona Mass-Killer Virus Apocalypse? Maybe it’s for you, maybe not, but is it good public policy? Tradeoffs. Think. Has it gone out of fashion? The Corona Thinking Strike.

  109. Anonymous[425] • Disclaimer says:

    Frightening numbers.

  110. @Ron Unz

    I also found that a number of hospitals have been able to expend their ICU beds dramatically (one hospital went from 20 to 150). Obviously that has strained the staff and resources significantly and is not sustainable at all, but it is still quite impressive. Our hospitals have turned out to be more resilient than previously thought.
     
    Sure. But the expected hospitalizations are running 85% lower than expected, and those latter numbers would have surely crashed the system. For example, from the NYT:

    Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end.
     
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html

    Something is clearly either wrong or drastically changed in the illness model that everyone had been using...

    I don’t know that I’d want to push this as an analogy, but I’m reminded that in the immediate circumstances of 9/11, it was reported that the NYC hospitals expected to be overwhelmed, and they weren’t.

    Sorry, I’m trying to type with rubber gloves.

    • Replies: @Obee
    At the World Trade Center there were only the quick or the dead, very few wounded. The hospitals, notably now gone St. Vincent’s, assembled medical staff on the Seventh Avenue sidewalk awaiting the casualties that were never to come. The surrounding cross streets were packed by people wanting to donate blood. Almost all were sent home. Much different today, but it certainly looks like the Javits Ctr. will remain under used.
  111. How many people are dying because they are not seeing doctors or going to the hospital out of fear of infection?

  112. Tokyo ridership similar to New York.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_rail_systems_in_Japan

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Metro

    Overcrowding

    As is common with rail transport in Tokyo, Tokyo Metro trains are severely crowded during peak periods. During the morning peak period, platform attendants (oshiya) are sometimes needed to push riders and their belongings into train cars so that the doors can close. On some Tokyo Metro lines, the first or last car of a train is reserved for women during peak hours.

    Japan covid-19 deaths: 99

    Must be the masks that make a difference.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward

    Must be the masks that make a difference.
     
    Not really. Russia has 94 deaths. Russia has very busy public transport and no mask wearing.
  113. @reactionry
    "Better Than Ezra"?*

    In A Station of the MTA (2020)

    "The apparition of these faces in a crowd;

    Petals on a wet, black [bier]."

    FIFY

    https://www.gradesaver.com/ezra-pound-poems/study-guide/summary-in-a-station-of-the-metro-1913


    * https://whynameitthat.blogspot.com/2013/02/better-than-ezra.html

    See Also - Drunken Idiotic Idiom: Crying in my Corona bier

    “Better Than Ezra”?*

    Naw. Too many power chords, not enough notes.

    • Replies: @reactionry
    "Naw"

    Haw! I suspect that you prefer bassoons unplugged.
    For those who (unlike you) don't "geddit," here's something from the second link in the previous post:
    "The one I like best is that it comes from a line in Ernest Hemingway's novel A Moveable Feast. Hemingway is describing a very annoying sound as '...no worse than other noises, certainly better than Ezra learning to play the bassoon.' "

    (worse-than-usual quickie doggerel below the MORE)


    "Don't you dare
    Touch my hair
    Or diddle my bassoon,"
    Said Vidal Sassoon
    "That is not scanning!"
    Said Carol "Clairol"
    Channing

    Also see: James Speaks Cornish, Carol Channing stars in Hello Dolly Pentreath
  114. @eD
    Transit workers in New York City have pretty much zero interaction with the people riding the trains. Motormen operate the trains from enclosed cabs separate from the passengers. There are no conductors. The MTA even removed the human ticket agents in the booths. Occasionally you will see transit workers doing something on the tracks but these crews don't interact with the public.

    So New York subway trains being crowded would have nothing to do with MTA employees getting sick. The MTA is notorious for making cleaning the stations a high priority, but again the effects of that would be seen with the passengers before being seen with the employees.

    They don’t clean the subways; they’re gross. They’re filthy and disgusting. And you could be having your throat cut while everyone – MTA employees and fellow passengers would just sit there whistling Dixie and pretending not to hear your bloody gurgling through your slit vocal cords. Smelly and disgusting. I left it behind a long time ago! Don’t miss it one bit.

  115. @eD
    Transit workers in New York City have pretty much zero interaction with the people riding the trains. Motormen operate the trains from enclosed cabs separate from the passengers. There are no conductors. The MTA even removed the human ticket agents in the booths. Occasionally you will see transit workers doing something on the tracks but these crews don't interact with the public.

    So New York subway trains being crowded would have nothing to do with MTA employees getting sick. The MTA is notorious for making cleaning the stations a high priority, but again the effects of that would be seen with the passengers before being seen with the employees.

    They don’t clean the subways; they’re gross. They’re filthy and disgusting. And you could be having your throat cut while everyone – MTA employees and fellow passengers would just sit there whistling Dixie and pretending not to hear your bloody gurgling through your slit vocal cords. Smelly and disgusting. I left it behind a long time ago! Don’t miss it one bit.

  116. Hail says: • Website


    The data-source on this graph is questionable. It was assembled manually by New York Times staffers, possibly even just adding-on reported Corona Deaths to normal expected deaths. This is not official data. While there is a flu-death spike going on, this particular graph looks like Fake News.

    A commenter at the New York Times wrote:

    Can author or somebody please clairfy the way the data was collected here? It seems that the author simply took the average number of deaths and manually added all corona virus deaths as incremental deaths. None of the cited sources provide data for any non-flu or non-corona related deaths for the period current period that is charted (March/April 2020).

    It seems very problematic to assume all deaths will be the same and all corona-related deaths are necessarily incremental to the total death count.

    In addition to the double-counting problem, there is the “people not going to hospitals for fear of the virus and dying at home of preventable things” (e.g., heart attacks) which has been reported. Such deaths are to be blamed on the Panic and not on the Virus. There are good reasons people warn against panic, and why Doomers are normally not empowered.

    Then there is this from an NYT commenter:

    “These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died anyway”

    No one is saying that people who died of COVID would have died _this month_. The hypothesis is “Many people who die of COVID would have died in the next year, more would have died in the next 2 years, and almost all within the next 10 years”.

    It will be more informative to compare expected vs actual deaths across all of 2020, and to determine the total number of life-years lost. it will be greater than 0, but less than a hypothetical illness that kills people independently of their prior health status

  117. @Jack D
    We've been over this many times. They HAD to lie to you because they knew that the supply of masks was inadequate (having been outsourced to China) and they wanted to preserve the limited quantity for medical personnel. They were lying for a good cause!

    Whatever you say,Boomer!

  118. GermanReader2 [AKA "GermanReader2_new"] says:
    @PennTothal
    Always remember the most important axiom of this pandemic: Italy is the outlier.

    All of the models that had the U.S. following Italy with a 11-12 day lag have been falsified except in the NY metro area.

    It is likely that the strain of virus that spread in Asia (to Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, etc) is less virulent than the Italian strain.

    It is the Italian strain that is primarily spreading in the NY metro area. So maybe it takes a few hits to create disaster, just one hit may not be enough. Maybe disaster (NY Metro) requires: 1. Italian strain of the virus + 2. Crowded, densely-packed living, subways, etc. + 3. Cold, dry air + 4. Mask-averse or poorly compliant populace.

    The southern U.S. (New Orleans, Houston, etc) may only have 2 out of the 4 necessary hits and may never experience disaster.

    The Italian strain is the one going round in Germany as well (this has been proven by scientific analysis). Something else must be going on in Italy, because the Germans still have the capacity to import ICU patients from Italy, France and even Spain.

  119. @dfordoom

    Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    – Mass transit/reducing cars
     
    Yep, a huge mistake. Maybe Trump could get the economy booming again with massive spending on new roads and freeways. I'd love to see that.

    – High density housing
     
    Another huge mistake. A house on a quarter-acre block with a back yard is infinitely better for raising kids and is better for psychological and physical health.

    – Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones
     
    Reusable shopping bags are simply gross. Pathogen magnets.

    Ever heard of a washing machine?

  120. @Dube
    I don't know that I'd want to push this as an analogy, but I'm reminded that in the immediate circumstances of 9/11, it was reported that the NYC hospitals expected to be overwhelmed, and they weren't.

    Sorry, I'm trying to type with rubber gloves.

    At the World Trade Center there were only the quick or the dead, very few wounded. The hospitals, notably now gone St. Vincent’s, assembled medical staff on the Seventh Avenue sidewalk awaiting the casualties that were never to come. The surrounding cross streets were packed by people wanting to donate blood. Almost all were sent home. Much different today, but it certainly looks like the Javits Ctr. will remain under used.

  121. @nebulafox
    Then there's BART out in the Bay Area. Always a pleasant experience between the junkies and the screeching. I wonder if 1970s New York was like that. Comparing that to Hong Kong-or any subway system in the region-is deeply depressing. Even the Vietnamese are about to open metro systems in Hanoi and Saigon next year.

    There's something so incredibly... I dunno, telling about 21st Century America there. The same place where all the fancy apps are created can't make a first-rate subway system. We have a capital that takes 40 years to get a basic extension done: and the extension doesn't even reach the airport. We've gotten out of the habit of actually producing or engineering useful, vital stuff in favor of fluff and money management and service. That doesn't bode well.

    I once rode the train from San Jose to San Francisco, whatever it’s called; the cars were oddly proportioned and the windows so small it felt like going to the big house on an armored prison train of some sort. All that was missing was Nicholas Cage with flowing locks staging a revolt against the screws. On the positive side, it was at least fairly empty.

  122. Toronto looks like the best comparison from a subway-volume perspective. Daily ridership is over 1.5 million normally. That may include the buses and streetcars too.

    For a lot of folks up here like my wife it’s really the only reasonable option for getting downtown for work.

  123. @Ron Unz

    I also found that a number of hospitals have been able to expend their ICU beds dramatically (one hospital went from 20 to 150). Obviously that has strained the staff and resources significantly and is not sustainable at all, but it is still quite impressive. Our hospitals have turned out to be more resilient than previously thought.
     
    Sure. But the expected hospitalizations are running 85% lower than expected, and those latter numbers would have surely crashed the system. For example, from the NYT:

    Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end.
     
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html

    Something is clearly either wrong or drastically changed in the illness model that everyone had been using...

    Maybe people avoid hospitals more in NYC than in Italy, where the numbers likely originated, for cost reasons. That’s probably helped because of iatrogenic infections in hospitals.

  124. @Ron Unz
    Well, that huge NYC death-spike tends to confirm that very large numbers of New Yorkers are dying of Coronavirus without showing up in the official totals because they were never tested before their deaths, just as had happened in Lombardy. There was a big story in the NYT this morning saying the same thing.

    Taking those figures into account, I'd think that daily New York Coronavirus deaths have been running well over 1,000 for several days now, possibly even getting close to 1,500/day.

    When that same chart is updated in another few days, I think the fatality-spike for NYC will look like a delta function, and maybe those stubborn Coronavirus Hoaxers will finally give up and admit that they were wrong.

    But I'm still very puzzled why the rate of serious hospitalizations are so much lower than expected. I think the NY officials said the same thing, that they'd expected to see almost 10x more. If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now, and deaths would probably be running more like 4K-5K per day instead of the current figures.

    Perhaps those special drugs are working. Or perhaps the percentage of extremely mild/asymptomatic cases is many times greater than people had believed, and a substantial fraction of all NYC residents have already been infected.

    People are afraid to go to the hospital because they think they will get worse.

    Then they die in their homes.

  125. @Twinkie
    I wasn’t disagreeing - merely adding another bit of good news.

    But the number of intensive care beds being used declined for the first time in the crisis, to 4,908, according to daily figures released on Friday. And the total number hospitalized with the virus, 18,569, was far lower than the darkest expectations.
     
    The article doesn’t mention what the models predicted for ICU beds. Do you see that anywhere?

    The article doesn’t mention what the models predicted for ICU beds. Do you see that anywhere?

    On a tangentially-related subject, is it difficult to keep track of covid-19 recoveries? Because Virginia is apparently not doing so. Meanwhile, Ralph Northam had time in his schedule to sign a gun control bill.

  126. @DanHessinMD
    Arizona is ranked 22 out of 50 states in cases and also 22 out of 50 states in deaths (1 being the most cases and deaths).

    I don't know much about Arizona and I have never been there. I hear it is quite dry although March is the wettest month of the year in Phoenix. So Arizona is dry, but not incredibly so in March.

    Arizona and Hawaii are similarly warm but Arizona is much drier than Hawaii. Hawaii seems to have fared fairly well, better than Arizona even though Hawaii is much denser and is a big travel destination during the colder months.

    Arizona is ranked 22 out of 50 states in cases and also 22 out of 50 states in deaths (1 being the most cases and deaths).

    Arizona is 14th in population, so I would guess that it’s in the lower half of states in cases and deaths per capita. (Too lazy to look up the numbers and verify that.)

    I don’t know much about Arizona and I have never been there. I hear it is quite dry although March is the wettest month of the year in Phoenix. So Arizona is dry, but not incredibly so in March.

    I do live in Arizona, just east of Phoenix. It’s normally quite dry here, but this year has been one of the wettest on record. By the middle of March, we had already had as much rainfall in 2020 as we get in an average full year. Looking out my window right now, I see rain clouds, and the forecast calls for some rain today.

  127. Wow, thanks for that data. I had no idea NY’s subway blows away the field. Unhealthy people crammed in with no masks certainly helps to explain the outlier status of NYC.

    I’m curious why that unexpected death chart doesn’t have more of a spike for the 17-18 flu season, which was really bad and above average for deaths in the US.

  128. Didn’t 911 already point out a “single point of failure” problem–and in so doing point out that ridiculous conglomerations like NYC are stupid.

    Furthermore it’s the home of parasitic finance and a bunch of foreigners who should not even be in the nation.

    Why don’t we simply *stop importing people* and rein in finance with say a 0.5% transaction tax. NYC will immediately start whithering down to a reasonable size and eventually–over generations–become somewhat American again.

  129. @Jack D
    We've been over this many times. They HAD to lie to you because they knew that the supply of masks was inadequate (having been outsourced to China) and they wanted to preserve the limited quantity for medical personnel. They were lying for a good cause!

    We’ve been over this many times. They HAD to lie to you because they knew that the supply of masks was inadequate (having been outsourced to China) and they wanted to preserve the limited quantity for medical personnel. They were lying for a good cause!

    I’ve heard your argument. They screwed up–pants down–and were doing CYA.

    But what they could have done is told the truth:
    — Everyone should mask up in enclosed public spaces.
    — Perfection not required. Even a mask made from a cotton T-shirt is helpful.
    — If both sides are masked, even with inferior materials, the chance of airborne transmission drops to noise and that vector will be closed off.
    — And explicit handling/reuse info. Behavior actually doesn’t have to be “perfect”. (Get one little virus on your finger from touching your mask isn’t the same as breathing in droplets form some super-shedder-spreader.)

    If necessary simple ban public–non-medical–sale of N95s for a month or so until the supply recovers. (They’ve banned basically everything else!) With an explicit demand to buy any and all supply until they declare the market open for all.

    Sure, our demographics aren’t what they were in 1960, but Americans aren’t a bunch of complete nimrods. Telling the truth and asking people to do the right thing is good policy.

    • Replies: @vhrm

    — If both sides are masked, even with inferior materials, the chance of airborne transmission drops to noise and that vector will be closed off.
     
    I'm bullish on masks, but this is a coupke of steps too far imo. For two people with no-valve n95s ok.

    Two people wearing bandanas... probably more life cut risk in half. (one (non-covid) study (incoming only) had cotton masks as worse than no mask. )


    If necessary simple ban public–non-medical–sale of N95s for a month or so until the supply recovers. (They’ve banned basically everything else!) With an explicit demand to buy any and all supply until they declare the market open for all.
     
    I'm still hoping someone starts reporting on how hospitals and other facilities are using these masks. Huge amounts have already been shipped. California alone has delivered to healthcare 40 million n95s. It also has a 150m/month contract going forward.

    Where have they gone? How can they possibly use these many?

    There are still stories coming out about places where nurses supposedly have to use a surgical mask for a while day and don't even have n95s. Others about using one n95 for a whole week.

    There's things don't square with each other.

  130. @Len
    Tokyo ridership similar to New York.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_rail_systems_in_Japan

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Metro


    Overcrowding

    As is common with rail transport in Tokyo, Tokyo Metro trains are severely crowded during peak periods. During the morning peak period, platform attendants (oshiya) are sometimes needed to push riders and their belongings into train cars so that the doors can close. On some Tokyo Metro lines, the first or last car of a train is reserved for women during peak hours.
     

    Japan covid-19 deaths: 99

    Must be the masks that make a difference.

    Must be the masks that make a difference.

    Not really. Russia has 94 deaths. Russia has very busy public transport and no mask wearing.

  131. GU says:

    In addition to the CTA (el train), Chicago’s suburbs are served by a massive commuter rail system (Metra) that is used heavily. If you add in Metra ridership, I think you’d see Chicago ridership be a lot larger than D.C.

    The same is true of NYC of course (Metro North, PATH, LIRR), and to a lesser extent Philly (the Main Line?). Just something to think about if we’re looking for a relationship between use of public transportation and the pandemic.

  132. Completely missing the point, I wonder when “order of magnitude” entered the lexicon. I see it all the time now, when I don’t recall seeing it about 20 years ago. Wouldn’t it be more transparent to say “10 times as much”?

  133. As an Oklahoma City resident, actual people riding the bus here?

    I thought the city drove the buses empty as a public works project.

  134. @Jack D
    We've been over this many times. They HAD to lie to you because they knew that the supply of masks was inadequate (having been outsourced to China) and they wanted to preserve the limited quantity for medical personnel. They were lying for a good cause!

    If the affirmative action Surgeon General signed off on that, he needs to resign so his successor can restore confidence in his office. It doesn’t do to have a hoaxer in a role like that. Whether the hoax had a good cause or not.

    I’m sure that if Trump does request that he resign, he will find a noose in his office, and be untouchable.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    The 'affirmative action' Surgeon-General has the academic and professional background you'd expect of a Surgeon-General - training and certification in medicine and public health and a stint as a state health commissioner.
  135. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    If the subways and all public transportation in NYC are still running, why is this occurring? Would have thought that for public safety the Mayor or Governor would have ordered them all closed down until the virus has run its course. With all public transportation not running, that certainly would help enforce social distancing and perhaps see a slower rate of infections.

    Don't know, not there. But if NY's public transportation is still running, why is this? During times like these, that makes no sense whatsoever. Just asking for more infections.

    The subways and buses cannot possibly be ‘shut down’. Even by the standards of the most extremely limited idea of what is essential, there are thousands or tens of thousands of workers who are indisputably essential. People who work in supermarkets, security guards, people who work in the post office, people who keep electricity etc running, the army of ‘home health aids’ without whom our numerous elderly and disabled people couldn’t function, nurses, people who work with the homeless, etc etc etc.

    All these people have to get to work, crisis or no crisis, and unless someone is going to pay for all of them to ride taxicabs the subway and buses have to keep running for their sake.

  136. @AnotherDad


    We’ve been over this many times. They HAD to lie to you because they knew that the supply of masks was inadequate (having been outsourced to China) and they wanted to preserve the limited quantity for medical personnel. They were lying for a good cause!
     
    I've heard your argument. They screwed up--pants down--and were doing CYA.

    But what they could have done is told the truth:
    -- Everyone should mask up in enclosed public spaces.
    -- Perfection not required. Even a mask made from a cotton T-shirt is helpful.
    -- If both sides are masked, even with inferior materials, the chance of airborne transmission drops to noise and that vector will be closed off.
    -- And explicit handling/reuse info. Behavior actually doesn't have to be "perfect". (Get one little virus on your finger from touching your mask isn't the same as breathing in droplets form some super-shedder-spreader.)

    If necessary simple ban public--non-medical--sale of N95s for a month or so until the supply recovers. (They've banned basically everything else!) With an explicit demand to buy any and all supply until they declare the market open for all.

    Sure, our demographics aren't what they were in 1960, but Americans aren't a bunch of complete nimrods. Telling the truth and asking people to do the right thing is good policy.

    — If both sides are masked, even with inferior materials, the chance of airborne transmission drops to noise and that vector will be closed off.

    I’m bullish on masks, but this is a coupke of steps too far imo. For two people with no-valve n95s ok.

    Two people wearing bandanas… probably more life cut risk in half. (one (non-covid) study (incoming only) had cotton masks as worse than no mask. )

    If necessary simple ban public–non-medical–sale of N95s for a month or so until the supply recovers. (They’ve banned basically everything else!) With an explicit demand to buy any and all supply until they declare the market open for all.

    I’m still hoping someone starts reporting on how hospitals and other facilities are using these masks. Huge amounts have already been shipped. California alone has delivered to healthcare 40 million n95s. It also has a 150m/month contract going forward.

    Where have they gone? How can they possibly use these many?

    There are still stories coming out about places where nurses supposedly have to use a surgical mask for a while day and don’t even have n95s. Others about using one n95 for a whole week.

    There’s things don’t square with each other.

  137. @James Speaks

    “Better Than Ezra”?*
     
    Naw. Too many power chords, not enough notes.

    “Naw”

    Haw! I suspect that you prefer bassoons unplugged.
    For those who (unlike you) don’t “geddit,” here’s something from the second link in the previous post:
    “The one I like best is that it comes from a line in Ernest Hemingway’s novel A Moveable Feast. Hemingway is describing a very annoying sound as ‘…no worse than other noises, certainly better than Ezra learning to play the bassoon.’ ”

    (worse-than-usual quickie doggerel below the MORE)

    [MORE]

    “Don’t you dare
    Touch my hair
    Or diddle my bassoon,”
    Said Vidal Sassoon
    “That is not scanning!”
    Said Carol “Clairol”
    Channing

    Also see: James Speaks Cornish, Carol Channing stars in Hello Dolly Pentreath

    • Replies: @James Speaks

    Haw! I suspect that you prefer bassoons unplugged. (and other stuff)
     
    No, I do not get it, but I am sure it is funny. BTW, never dis Ms. Channing. She's so hot!!!
  138. @Ron Unz
    Well, that huge NYC death-spike tends to confirm that very large numbers of New Yorkers are dying of Coronavirus without showing up in the official totals because they were never tested before their deaths, just as had happened in Lombardy. There was a big story in the NYT this morning saying the same thing.

    Taking those figures into account, I'd think that daily New York Coronavirus deaths have been running well over 1,000 for several days now, possibly even getting close to 1,500/day.

    When that same chart is updated in another few days, I think the fatality-spike for NYC will look like a delta function, and maybe those stubborn Coronavirus Hoaxers will finally give up and admit that they were wrong.

    But I'm still very puzzled why the rate of serious hospitalizations are so much lower than expected. I think the NY officials said the same thing, that they'd expected to see almost 10x more. If those projections had been correct, the local health system would surely have collapsed by now, and deaths would probably be running more like 4K-5K per day instead of the current figures.

    Perhaps those special drugs are working. Or perhaps the percentage of extremely mild/asymptomatic cases is many times greater than people had believed, and a substantial fraction of all NYC residents have already been infected.

    The NYT death toll numbers are based on their “provisional” calculation, which involves extrapolating and adding assumed coronavirus deaths into the total which they believe haven’t been reported yet.

    This is valid in principle, as there is a reporting lag. But I don’t fully trust the NYT not to put their thumb on the scale when making any sort of assumptions. For better or worse, they are all-in on maximizing the fear at this point.

    A new talking point is that people who are too afraid to go to the hospital for other matters are part of the death toll. Maybe. But they should be counted as casualties of the panic, not the virus itself.

  139. @Dave Pinsen
    Basically, the entire media neoliberal consensus has been proven disastrous:

    - Mass transit/reducing cars
    - High density housing
    - Banning plastic bags for unsanitary, reusable ones
    - Open borders
    - Muh ethnic restaurants/food trucks
    - Outsourcing to China

    Good concept Dave, good list, but you forgot the battle against individually-wrapped straws. That’s what my local Woken were fighting just as the virus hit.

  140. @Rob
    If the affirmative action Surgeon General signed off on that, he needs to resign so his successor can restore confidence in his office. It doesn’t do to have a hoaxer in a role like that. Whether the hoax had a good cause or not.

    I’m sure that if Trump does request that he resign, he will find a noose in his office, and be untouchable.

    The ‘affirmative action’ Surgeon-General has the academic and professional background you’d expect of a Surgeon-General – training and certification in medicine and public health and a stint as a state health commissioner.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Did she ever remove a pancreas or spleen? Has she ever led a tank battalion?

    That's what I'd expect in a real Surgeon/General. It sounds like she's an AA hire, indeed.
  141. @Achmed E. Newman
    Steve, this is something I thought of today and was planning on asking you. (This post makes it not at all off-topic as I'd planned):

    Have you been out driving on the LA freeways? If not you, do you have friends or family who have? I'd really like to know how they enjoy it, with what's got to be a whole lot less traffic. I mean, I can picture driving in Los Angeles now as though I were on an early-on episode of The Rockford Files.

    Do you have a Trans-Am, Steve? I know, I know, they get 17 mpg on the freeway, so what, gas is basically free!


    (This is the REAL Eagles, with Bernie Leadon and Randy Meisner.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--rAINTn2TE


    Well, my time went too quickly.
    I went lickety-splitly out to my old fifty-five.
    As I pulled away slowly, feelin' so holy,
    God knows I was feelin' alive.
    And now the sun's comin' up.
    I'm ridin' with Lady Luck.
    Freeway cars and trucks...

    That song was written by Tom Waits.

    “Ol’ ’55” is a song by American musician Tom Waits. … The song has been covered by numerous artists, most notably by the Eagles …

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ol%27_%2755

    I love his voice and the way he sings it. (The lyrics are under the video at YouTube.)

    Also, the story behind it is that Tom Waits had a friend, who got lucky with a lady one night. After he got into his car in the early morning, he found that there was a malfunction that prevented him from going forward. He could only go in reverse.

    So, he went in reverse down the highway, with everyone flashing their lights at him (and I imagine honking too). But because he was so deliriously happy, he was thinking to himself: “I lead the parade”.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Thanks for the great background and anecdote, Ziggurat.
  142. @reactionry
    "Naw"

    Haw! I suspect that you prefer bassoons unplugged.
    For those who (unlike you) don't "geddit," here's something from the second link in the previous post:
    "The one I like best is that it comes from a line in Ernest Hemingway's novel A Moveable Feast. Hemingway is describing a very annoying sound as '...no worse than other noises, certainly better than Ezra learning to play the bassoon.' "

    (worse-than-usual quickie doggerel below the MORE)


    "Don't you dare
    Touch my hair
    Or diddle my bassoon,"
    Said Vidal Sassoon
    "That is not scanning!"
    Said Carol "Clairol"
    Channing

    Also see: James Speaks Cornish, Carol Channing stars in Hello Dolly Pentreath

    Haw! I suspect that you prefer bassoons unplugged. (and other stuff)

    No, I do not get it, but I am sure it is funny. BTW, never dis Ms. Channing. She’s so hot!!!

  143. @ziggurat
    That song was written by Tom Waits.

    "Ol' '55" is a song by American musician Tom Waits. ... The song has been covered by numerous artists, most notably by the Eagles ...
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ol%27_%2755

    I love his voice and the way he sings it. (The lyrics are under the video at YouTube.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PejBkU4-1fk
    Also, the story behind it is that Tom Waits had a friend, who got lucky with a lady one night. After he got into his car in the early morning, he found that there was a malfunction that prevented him from going forward. He could only go in reverse.

    So, he went in reverse down the highway, with everyone flashing their lights at him (and I imagine honking too). But because he was so deliriously happy, he was thinking to himself: "I lead the parade".

    Thanks for the great background and anecdote, Ziggurat.

  144. @Bragadocious
    It seems the experts were wrong. The NY Times today:

    One of the models, created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, which is supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, was initially based mainly on data from the epidemic in Wuhan, China, which many experts now consider unreliable. Outbreaks in Italy and Spain peaked more recently and provide a fuller picture of how quickly infections can be brought under control.

     

    It's almost like Bill Gates had a financial incentive in exaggerating the danger of this virus.

    But what about Ron Unz, who said 50,000 deaths in NY was baked in the cake? And that the final number would likely be in the hundreds of thousands? What was his motivation? Clicks, probably. Now I see he's running around like a headless chicken trying to explain his position while threatening to ban "hoaxers," which presumably includes people who scoffed at his catastrophic (and wrong) modeling. Hey, maybe you can't apply compound interest financial theories to pandemics. Who knew?

    Who knew? We knew! Kung Flu? Boo-hoo!

    – A.E. Suess

    (I think he’s a brutally honest guy that got on the wrong track believing math can model anything, even with bad data and missing processes. His best be is just to lay off for a while. We’ll forgive and forget.)

  145. @Art Deco
    The 'affirmative action' Surgeon-General has the academic and professional background you'd expect of a Surgeon-General - training and certification in medicine and public health and a stint as a state health commissioner.

    Did she ever remove a pancreas or spleen? Has she ever led a tank battalion?

    That’s what I’d expect in a real Surgeon/General. It sounds like she’s an AA hire, indeed.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    The Surgeon-General is a public health official, not a soldier or sailor. The ranks are courtesy titles. The current Surgeon-General is a he, not a she. Over the last 60-odd years, there have been a couple of people in that job who were trained as surgeons, but most followed residencies in internal medicine or pediatrics or what have you. A couple were Commissioned Corps lifers, the rest recruited from academe, state health departments, teaching hospitals &c.
  146. @Dan Hayes
    Subsidiary facts for ya. Today all of these public unhidden restrooms are located at the beginning and end of the subway lines. At one time every subway station had a public restroom but were closed when they became shooting galleries and crime warrens probably starting in the 60s.

    Many were still open in the 80s.

    • Thanks: Dan Hayes
  147. @Bragadocious
    It seems the experts were wrong. The NY Times today:

    One of the models, created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, which is supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, was initially based mainly on data from the epidemic in Wuhan, China, which many experts now consider unreliable. Outbreaks in Italy and Spain peaked more recently and provide a fuller picture of how quickly infections can be brought under control.

     

    It's almost like Bill Gates had a financial incentive in exaggerating the danger of this virus.

    But what about Ron Unz, who said 50,000 deaths in NY was baked in the cake? And that the final number would likely be in the hundreds of thousands? What was his motivation? Clicks, probably. Now I see he's running around like a headless chicken trying to explain his position while threatening to ban "hoaxers," which presumably includes people who scoffed at his catastrophic (and wrong) modeling. Hey, maybe you can't apply compound interest financial theories to pandemics. Who knew?

    But what about Ron Unz, who said 50,000 deaths in NY was baked in the cake? And that the final number would likely be in the hundreds of thousands? What was his motivation? Clicks, probably. Now I see he’s running around like a headless chicken trying to explain his position while threatening to ban “hoaxers,” which presumably includes people who scoffed at his catastrophic (and wrong) modeling. Hey, maybe you can’t apply compound interest financial theories to pandemics. Who knew?

    NY is already at 10,000k confirmed and it’s not over yet. Not over in terms of the current sick people or in terms of future waves (which might be this winter but also could be next month).

    There is clearly some THERE there and these things cab get out of hand very quickly.

    So I think it’s admirable that governments starred to act proactively.

    What i can’t stand is that they cranked it up to economy destroying police state right away instead of taking a more measured approach (like … Korea, Japan and Sweden).

    AND that now they’re keeping it locked up because they have no f’in idea how to climb down from this tree they’ve ran up on their panic.

    • Replies: @Art Deco
    They're indubitably keeping it locked up because we've only just turned the corner and supply chain back-ups have inhibited the distribution of protective equipment.
  148. @Achmed E. Newman
    Did she ever remove a pancreas or spleen? Has she ever led a tank battalion?

    That's what I'd expect in a real Surgeon/General. It sounds like she's an AA hire, indeed.

    The Surgeon-General is a public health official, not a soldier or sailor. The ranks are courtesy titles. The current Surgeon-General is a he, not a she. Over the last 60-odd years, there have been a couple of people in that job who were trained as surgeons, but most followed residencies in internal medicine or pediatrics or what have you. A couple were Commissioned Corps lifers, the rest recruited from academe, state health departments, teaching hospitals &c.

  149. @vhrm

    But what about Ron Unz, who said 50,000 deaths in NY was baked in the cake? And that the final number would likely be in the hundreds of thousands? What was his motivation? Clicks, probably. Now I see he’s running around like a headless chicken trying to explain his position while threatening to ban “hoaxers,” which presumably includes people who scoffed at his catastrophic (and wrong) modeling. Hey, maybe you can’t apply compound interest financial theories to pandemics. Who knew?
     
    NY is already at 10,000k confirmed and it's not over yet. Not over in terms of the current sick people or in terms of future waves (which might be this winter but also could be next month).


    There is clearly some THERE there and these things cab get out of hand very quickly.

    So I think it's admirable that governments starred to act proactively.

    What i can't stand is that they cranked it up to economy destroying police state right away instead of taking a more measured approach (like ... Korea, Japan and Sweden).

    AND that now they're keeping it locked up because they have no f'in idea how to climb down from this tree they've ran up on their panic.

    They’re indubitably keeping it locked up because we’ve only just turned the corner and supply chain back-ups have inhibited the distribution of protective equipment.

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