The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection$
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
Is the Murder Rate in St. Louis High in Absolute Terms?
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • B
Show CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

A common response to my pointing out that the rate of being a known murder offender in FBI crime stats is 8 times higher among blacks than among nonblacks is that murder is so incredibly rare that it’s pointless even to know this fact.

The argument in effect is #BlackLivesDoNotMatter when it comes to black-on-black victims.

That got me thinking using the example of St. Louis.

Clearly, the murder rate in St. Louis of 87 per 100,000 in 2020 was high in relative terms: the highest of any sizable city in the country last year.

On the other hand, 87 per 100,000 is only 0.087%, which looks like a pretty small number. So how bad can it really be in absolute terms?

If you spent January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 in St. Louis, your average chance of not being murdered is over 99.9%. (Homer Simpson voice: “I like those odds!”)

On the other hand, some populations in St. Louis are more at risk than others. For example, black males made up 79% of the murder victims. Black males make up, I’m estimating, 22.5% of the population of St. Louis. So the murder victimization rate per 100k was 306. So blacks males had a little under a 99.7% chance of surviving 2020 in St. Louis without being murdered.

But what about not getting murdered over the course of your lifetime? Say you are a black man who wants to live for 75 years in St. Louis and not get murdered?

Well, take 2020’s 99.694% chance of not being murdered and raise it to the 75th power. I come up with your chances of not being murdered over 75 years as a black man in St. Louis are a little under 80%.

I’d say that 2020’s rate of black males being shot in St. Louis, suggesting a one in five chance of being murdered there over the course of a 75-year-lifespan is indeed high in absolute terms.

(If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)

Keep in mind that the national average is better: St. Louis blacks shoot each other at a higher than normal rates. And 2020 was a worse than normal year even for St. Louis, which has had very high murder rates since Ferguson next door in 2014. 2021 looks substantially better than 2020 in terms of the number of murders in St. Louis.

 
Hide 150 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. (If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)

    Sure. A better way is to refrain. Your assumptions and conclusions are fantastic and irrelevant.

    Baffled how otherwise intelligent people can moglify stats by years and figure it means what they think it means. The ultimate whittling down of your approach is “100%”; if you filter the results to those most ‘likely’ to be killed, honing it with scrupulous foresight and accuracy, those actually murdered were 100% at risk of their eventual murders. There’s the answer: The at-risk population of St. Blah Blah suffers a 100% murder rate. “It’s a Shanda, Larry!”

    Conversely, the other rate is 0%. Soothing.

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @schnellandine

    Everyone is aware that blacks are disproportionately harmed by Democrat "pro-black" policies, which also cause plenty of extra harm to non-blacks. But no one in power (and their civilian enablers) cares, because they're evil.

    , @tyrone
    @schnellandine

    " moglify stats "??.....??.....what does The Jungle Book have to do with it? .....oh. maybe you you are referring to the scene with the Louis Prima song and the apes......a perennial favorite ....

    , @Wade Hampton
    @schnellandine

    It's important that American whites not notice that their black fellow citizens are absurdly more murderous than every other ethnic group.

    Why? Because if we noticed that inarguable fact, then we wouldn't be able to pretend that that the degraded state of blacks was due to white racism. We'd have to attribute their degraded state to something intrinsic to blacks.

  2. Now do this one:

    Is the Death Rate for Coronavirus High in Absolute Terms?

    • Agree: JimDandy
    • Thanks: Mike Tre
    • LOL: Morton's toes, Charon
    • Replies: @Morton's toes
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Check out this comment:

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/07/links-7-24-2021.html#comment-3578254

    (That fellow is 1. sort of a Buzz Mohawk of Naked Capitalism; 2. a doctor treating covid patients the website owner is in constant communication with.)

    Replies: @JimDandy, @for-the-record, @Almost Missouri

  3. US military hostile fatality rate in Operation Iraqi Freedom: 335 per 100,000

    US military hostile fatality rate in Vietnam War: 1818 per 100,000

    Source: https://academic.oup.com/milmed/article-pdf/175/4/220/21584815/milmed-d-09-00130.pdf

    • Agree: Steven Carr
    • Replies: @edkpyros
    @Anon

    Sure, but no Americans fought in Iraq or Vietnam for their entire lives—whereas people do live in St. Louis from birth to death.

    , @prosa123
    @Anon

    Officers in the Soviet military with the rank of major or above had a 58% death rate during the 1930's. Not because of war, but because Stalin ordered them executed.

  4. OT?

    The mafs are way beyond me, but this one (previously posted by somebody or other here) regarding a nasty kind of “unity” with respect to the odds of suffering a (mostly) less-than-lethal black-on-white assault might be worth dusting off.

    “Violent victimization of whites by blacks is modeled in a racially mixed inner-city neighborhood. Its evolution is traced from the first black to move in, to the last white who moves out. The probability of a white being violently attacked is developed as a function of a neighborhood’s racial composition. It is shown to increase nonlinearly, approaching unity as a neighborhood becomes predominately black.”

    http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/hood.htm

    • Agree: TruthRevolution.net
  5. https://statisticalatlas.com/place/Missouri/St-Louis/Race-and-Ethnicity
    St.Louis is 47% black

    We are told that the high homicide rate in Central America entitles residents of those countries to asylum in the us the worst homicide rate in Central America is 55/100,000

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate

    • Agree: Shel100
    • Thanks: Rosie
  6. I’d say that 2020’s rate of black males being shot in St. Louis, suggesting a one in five chance of being murdered there over the course of a 75-year-lifespan is indeed high in absolute terms.

    Right. The chance of dying from some form of cancer is one in six so we go for annual health screenings and let a doctor shove a six foot hose up our backside once every decade.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @JimB

    The one in six is only if one lives to 70 years old. The longer one lives, the greater the chance of dying from cancer. The only thing that keeps every of dying from cancer is something else kills one first.

    Also, the colonoscopy is only for colon cancer but is so effective at preventing people from dying from cancer is that the NIH cut back of sponsoring research on colon therapy cancers. If one is to vain to get a coloscopy, then why should the tax payer fund novel therapies for a preventable disease.

    Replies: @JimB

  7. @Buzz Mohawk
    Now do this one:

    Is the Death Rate for Coronavirus High in Absolute Terms?

    Replies: @Morton's toes

    Check out this comment:

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/07/links-7-24-2021.html#comment-3578254

    (That fellow is 1. sort of a Buzz Mohawk of Naked Capitalism; 2. a doctor treating covid patients the website owner is in constant communication with.)

    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Morton's toes

    So, in other words, the vaccinated are a bunch of Typhoid Marys, spreading it to the unvaccinated, creating the argument that the unvaccinated need to get vaccinated to protected themselves from the vaccinated.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @J.Ross

    , @for-the-record
    @Morton's toes

    Check out this comment

    Check out this snapshot on data from Israel from the week of June 27 - July 3:

    https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Israel-210724.jpg

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Russ, @res

    , @Almost Missouri
    @Morton's toes

    From the doctor's comment:


    I have been a physician for 30 years and that experience plays a huge role as well. Having this gigantic number of breakthrough cases just simply does not happen. I continue to see more than half the cases in vaccinated patients and so do many others. UNHEARD OF IN VACCINES BEFORE NOW.

    ... It basically means the vaccinated have a much higher amount of viral active particles than the unvaccinated. That would account for the breakthroughs I and my colleagues are seeing being a bit more ill. And it would explain the clustering. THe vaccinated breakthroughs have much higher viral load so they are much more contagious and the higher viral load makes them more symptomatic.

    So we now have a suggestion and strong evidence that the vaccinated population may be spreading much more virus than the unvaccinated. I would say that is a critical public health issue and must be further researched immediately.

    ... The writers make the point that the breakthrough rate is extremely divergent from the expected rate. The difference is this paper documents what is happening in REAL LIFE. So much of what we are hearing on our media about vaccine efficacy is research being done in vitro. It is presented as gospel truth. I just want to scream.
     
    "Gigantic number" of breakthrough cases may be unheard of in human diseases, but it is not unheard of in animal diseases.

    As I keep pointing out, premature, half-assed vaccines have turned a minor nuisance into a genuine life-or-death global pandemic before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

    But who would be stupid enough to take the process of pharmaceutically inducing a lethal global epidemic in poultry and to repeat it in humans?

    Our stupid elites are just the ones.

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Triteleia Laxa, @gcochran

  8. Maybe the murder rampage will settle enough scores and take out enough dirtbags to serve the same purpose as giving them three hots and a cot. I think this is an under-appreciated aspect of the broken-windows, tough-on-crime recovery after the crack wars that everyone uses as a cope. I’m beyond caring about black-on black crime. What concerns me is the wilding and ‘random’ attacks on others that went along with the crack wars.

    This is not going to get better. A pack of ‘teens’ stomped an off duty firefighter in Queens yesterday and the press has to reflexively feign being perplexed at the randomness of it all. They started on Asians, they’re moving on to everyone else. This time the press will be working overtime to follow the well worn formula of first denying it is happening and then justifying it when it can’t be denied. “How did we fail these poor teens who curb-stomped the privileged (spit) white fire-fighter (spit)?”

    • Replies: @Charon
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Yep. The so-called "prestige media" is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)


    https://i.ibb.co/SwR2rck/Capture-2021-07-25-05-30-22-2.png

    Replies: @Ralph L, @Joe Stalin, @Paperback Writer, @prosa123, @J.Ross, @Sick 'n Tired, @Truth

    , @Jay Fink
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    That assumes the killer and his victim are both dirtbags in equal proportions. I think the murderer is much worse, especially if he killed someone who never committed homicide.

  9. What to do if you are a black man in St. Louis and wish to avoid getting murdered? Join the Army. Data from Chicago shows that the risk of being a murder victim is very high between ages 20 to 30, approximately. If the Army can get you out of that environment for those ten years, you can eventually return to the ‘hood and and enjoy much lower odds getting shot.

    https://heyjackass.com/2021-age-of-victim/

    And if the Army won’t take you, maybe get yourself sent to prison somewhere far away? With modern catch-and-release prosecutors, though, that may be tough.

    • Replies: @Rob
    @Ben Kurtz

    About half of blacks are not smart enough to join the military. Yet more have serious convictions that are no-no’s for the military…it just is not true that anyone can join the army and climb. The IQ requirement pretty much only prevents whites who are MR/DD from signing up, but it is a bar for lots of blacks who are normal blacks, they just drew fewer than average +IQ alleles from a distribution with fewer + alleles than other people residing in first world countries.

    I am not saying that the army should take dumber peopke. I am just saying that they don’t.

    Replies: @Charon, @edkpyros

    , @guest007
    @Ben Kurtz

    Does anyone think that all of those students in Baltimore with the 1.0 GPAs and reading at the third grade level could last in the Army (or any branch of the military for 10 years). More than likely, even if they could qualify to enlist, the would quickly be chaptered out of the Army and back in Chicago.

  10. Steve, are you aware that some municipalities now charge a “crime report” fee of $20? A friend of mine had $200 nicked from his car at a gas station. Called the cops. Cops came and took the details and then asked if he’d like to “file a crime report” for $20. He said no, he’d been robbed once already.

    An astute observer would notice a pattern in the sorts of places that have implemented the fee. Let’s just say it’s not the “nice neighborhoods”. Mayors love it — it makes them look like they’re doing something and the police occasionally bring in some extra money.

    Because it’s not implemented in the “nice neighborhoods” it’s sort-of flown below the radar of the sort of people who might question to what degree the “crime report fee” has factored into trends in the FBI’s crime statistics.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Sebastian

    Thanks. I hadn't heard that. I guess that's for reports to file with insurance companies.

    Here's a 2007 report on crime report fees in California: e.g., San Jose charges $15 and Palo Alto $10 but Davis is free:

    https://calaware.org/audits/2007-law-enforcement-audit-follow-up/audit-report/

    Replies: @res

    , @Charon
    @Sebastian

    State and local governments are charging user fees for virtually everything now. Seems fair, right? Those who use services should pay for them.

    Only....what are all our tax dollars going for, then? Just to support a do-nothing, self-perpetuating government bureaucracy?

    Then there's the fact that privileged minorities get everything for free anyway, and are excused from user fees.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Abolish_public_education

  11. Not to fret. St. Louis mayor Tishuara O. Jones is imposing an indoor mask mandate Monday morning. It should be as effective at curbing black-on-black violence as it is at curbing COVID in that community.

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    @Russ

    Here's everything you need to know about Masks v Covid.

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/47-studies-confirm-inefectiveness-of-masks-for-covid-and-32-more-confirm-their-negative-health-effects

    tldr
    They don't help.
    They are bad for you.

    Replies: @Gamecock

  12. One of the problems we have now is that perps are let back on the streets quite soon after an arrest, with little or no bail. Crazy White Boys-Chicago has a list of 31 perps who were arrested for a violent crime involving the use of a gun and who have been arrested again for a gun crime, often murder, while out awaiting trial. It’s almost like they want the crime wave to continue.

  13. • Agree: gandydancer
    • Replies: @Known Fact
    @Reg Cæsar

    I was walking our dog late one night on a visit to Pittsburgh and as we came back into the hotel lobby there right behind us was Jackie Mason -- not the celeb you'd expect to see in the Steel City

  14. i mean technically speaking you have less than a 50% chance of being killed in action even in a war between serious opponents, so everything is relative. and we’re talking about the people doing the shooting, not the people in the back cooking food and turning wrenches on vehicles.

    St Louis today has the highest per capita murder rate that it’s ever had in history, so yeah, it’s high.

    now let’s calculate how much the global population INCREASED between 2020 and 2021, to figure out, relatively, how much of a TOTAL NOTHING covid was. so many Americans died…that the population of the US went up like 2 million people.

  15. Rob says:
    @Ben Kurtz
    What to do if you are a black man in St. Louis and wish to avoid getting murdered? Join the Army. Data from Chicago shows that the risk of being a murder victim is very high between ages 20 to 30, approximately. If the Army can get you out of that environment for those ten years, you can eventually return to the 'hood and and enjoy much lower odds getting shot.

    https://heyjackass.com/2021-age-of-victim/

    And if the Army won't take you, maybe get yourself sent to prison somewhere far away? With modern catch-and-release prosecutors, though, that may be tough.

    Replies: @Rob, @guest007

    About half of blacks are not smart enough to join the military. Yet more have serious convictions that are no-no’s for the military…it just is not true that anyone can join the army and climb. The IQ requirement pretty much only prevents whites who are MR/DD from signing up, but it is a bar for lots of blacks who are normal blacks, they just drew fewer than average +IQ alleles from a distribution with fewer + alleles than other people residing in first world countries.

    I am not saying that the army should take dumber peopke. I am just saying that they don’t.

    • Replies: @Charon
    @Rob

    But they will. Look how college admissions standards have essentially been trashed because they weren't resulting in the "right" people getting enough positions.

    Same thing is happening with the military, as well it should. If anyone thinks this might have implications w.r.t. so-called "military readiness" I invite you to enjoy the news of the past five years.

    , @edkpyros
    @Rob

    Absolutely:

    "Between October 1995 and September 1996, only 51 applicants from the greater Harlem area made it into the Army, from an area population of 17,000 youths aged 17 to 21."

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB852502554635330000

  16. A murder victim can easily lose 50 years of expected healthy existence. A kungflu victim , probably doesn’t lose 50 minutes.

  17. Ano says:

    Dear Mr Sailer,

    Surely we need to be speaking not in terms of murder rates, but in terms (a la the military) of casualty rates in order to gain the truest picture of how violent a place is: not just in view of better medical survival rates, but particulary in this era of pray ‘n spray, where the negro treats his pistol like a tommy-gun.*

    Pace Mr Sailer/iSteve Moderator, I admit I personally don’t care how many negroes in St Lious (or anywhere else) are going around with bullet wound scars or are wheelchair-bound (etc), I just care about what the likelihood is in any particular place where negroes are to be found I and my loved ones will have to face not just a negro male with a gun, but with a knife, bat, or (just a deadly) his bunched fists.

    I assume 100% at the beginning of every encounter with an unknown (but then I’m a Bad White), and assess the risk from there…

    *This recalls to mind the constrast between the Chiraq negro of today and the Chicago gangsters of the Prohibition days. When the O’Banion gang (in retaliation for Al Capone’s ordered murder of rival Dion O’Banion in 1926), in the middle of the day the gang, in a procession of 8 cars, attacked Capone’s HQ at the Hawthorne Hotel. The first car in line, a block ahead of the rest, opended up fire with blanks in order to give passers-by a chance to duck and run for cover, before the 7 cars behind came up, spraying the hotel’s facade up and down. (True the opening salvo also was intended to draw Al’s men to the doors and windows so an un-negro-like man-to-man fair ‘n square shoot out could occur.)

  18. @Sebastian
    Steve, are you aware that some municipalities now charge a "crime report" fee of $20? A friend of mine had $200 nicked from his car at a gas station. Called the cops. Cops came and took the details and then asked if he'd like to "file a crime report" for $20. He said no, he'd been robbed once already.

    An astute observer would notice a pattern in the sorts of places that have implemented the fee. Let's just say it's not the "nice neighborhoods". Mayors love it -- it makes them look like they're doing something and the police occasionally bring in some extra money.

    Because it's not implemented in the "nice neighborhoods" it's sort-of flown below the radar of the sort of people who might question to what degree the "crime report fee" has factored into trends in the FBI's crime statistics.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Charon

    Thanks. I hadn’t heard that. I guess that’s for reports to file with insurance companies.

    Here’s a 2007 report on crime report fees in California: e.g., San Jose charges $15 and Palo Alto $10 but Davis is free:

    https://calaware.org/audits/2007-law-enforcement-audit-follow-up/audit-report/

    • Replies: @res
    @Steve Sailer

    It's unclear to me whether Sebastian is talking about a filing fee (appears to be the case) or the common fee for getting a copy of the report which is discussed in your document. Here is the relevant section (near the bottom of your link).


    4. Overcharging the Victim
    Those involved in a traffic accident or victimized by a crime have but one source for the official record confirming their experience to supply to an insurance company or the state’s crime victims restitution fund. There is no alternative supply of such documents if they do not purchase them from the department that investigated the accident or crime. Moreover, the great majority of such unfortunate persons will probably need such records only once, and have little or no incentive to question the amount charged to obtain them. Accordingly, the survey found numerous examples of departments requiring such requesters to pay a fee for crime or accident reports far beyond what the law allows as the “direct cost of duplication.” The most accommodating policy found was to charge crime and accident victims nothing at all, such as in Davis, Santa Rosa, Carlsbad, Galt, Glendora (for the first five pages), Santa Clara Sheriff (for the first 50 pages), and Sacramento (for the first 49 pages). The lawful and still citizen-friendly policy—to charge the same low per page fee to all requesters for all records copies—is the standard for departments like Coronado, Campbell (5 cents), Dublin, Berkeley, Contra Costa Sheriff, Piedmont, Pleasanton (10 cents), Beverly Hills (20 cents), Banning, Redding, South San Francisco and Brentwood (25 cents). Beyond these simple and reasonable standards is a wide variation of approaches, many of which set a price on crime and accident reports very far beyond what could possibly be a recovery of the direct cost of duplication per page. A sampling of these rates:
     
    Not sure why that needs to happen (other than the obvious money grab) given that the records are most likely electronic.

    P.S. If Sebastian's example really was a filing fee I'd like to hear more since I don't know of those.

    Replies: @Gamecock

  19. Chicago homicide victimization rates by race 2020″

    627 black victims 840,00 black homicide rate 74.6/100,000
    131 hispanic victims 779,000 hispanics 16.8/100,000
    32 white victims 878,000 white 3.2/100,000

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @t

    So the black male rate in Chicago looks a little under half of St. Louis's very high rate last year.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Mike Tre

  20. Murder is not the metric that matters. The ONLY way ‘progressive*’ and cuckolded ‘conservatives’ learn the reality of the negro is to live among them.

    This is why I am the absolute biggest fan of Obola’s AFFH scheme. Give them all a good up close look at the objects of their admiration. If it doesn’t kill them, it may cure them..

  21. @Morton's toes
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Check out this comment:

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/07/links-7-24-2021.html#comment-3578254

    (That fellow is 1. sort of a Buzz Mohawk of Naked Capitalism; 2. a doctor treating covid patients the website owner is in constant communication with.)

    Replies: @JimDandy, @for-the-record, @Almost Missouri

    So, in other words, the vaccinated are a bunch of Typhoid Marys, spreading it to the unvaccinated, creating the argument that the unvaccinated need to get vaccinated to protected themselves from the vaccinated.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @JimDandy

    It's Marek's disease all over again, but with humans instead of chickens this time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

    Replies: @JimDandy

    , @J.Ross
    @JimDandy

    It was retarded to ever attempt a vaccine against a rapidly-mutating virus, especially given that we had warehouses full of nearly risk-free and cost-free effective drugs. It was criminal to cut corners and stupid to do so on a project which could never work. Delta isn't new, it was already out there, and the vaccine causes selection for an existing variant not protected against by the vaccine. New vaccines propounded in the same dumb way will similarly cause selection for whatever they can't do anything about. And each time that happens, urinalists will run around screaming. Meanwhile medicine, inc has totally gutted whatever credibility they had left with cheap obvious public relations campaigns. Might as well be a tiktok dance.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Bill Jones

  22. @t
    Chicago homicide victimization rates by race 2020"

    627 black victims 840,00 black homicide rate 74.6/100,000
    131 hispanic victims 779,000 hispanics 16.8/100,000
    32 white victims 878,000 white 3.2/100,000

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    So the black male rate in Chicago looks a little under half of St. Louis’s very high rate last year.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Steve Sailer

    I hope this fact doesn't get back to Lori Lightfoot. She'll never shut up about it.

    , @Mike Tre
    @Steve Sailer

    Only one out of every six shooting victims in Chicago actually die. So the shooting victim rate would be what; 600/100,000?

    Seems significant.

  23. Black male 80% chance of not being murdered in a lifetime, but people have friends and family. How large a group before the odds of not being or knowing a victim drop to 25%?

    0.25 = 0.80^n

    log(0.25) = nlog(o.8)

    n = log(0.25)/log(0.8) = 6

  24. @Steve Sailer
    @t

    So the black male rate in Chicago looks a little under half of St. Louis's very high rate last year.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Mike Tre

    I hope this fact doesn’t get back to Lori Lightfoot. She’ll never shut up about it.

    • LOL: Hibernian
  25. statistics project for Steve Sailer:

    Steve likes collecting and analyzing newspapers. how about Steve show us the obituary section of the biggest 10 newspapers over the last year, so we can settle once and for all whether the death rate for old people is way up.

    double the usual number of obituaries, referenced to the previous 20 years, is probably sufficient. if there isn’t a pretty big increase in the number of obituaries and funeral home business, at least 50%, it’s probably time for Steve to shut up about this stuff. a 15% increase in the number of dead 80 year olds on the other hand, doesn’t qualify as a global national panic. 80 years old is already beyond the life expectancy rate.

    how about it Steve?

    • Disagree: Gamecock
    • Replies: @Gamecock
    @prime noticer

    Obituaries are useless for scientific study. They are discretionary. Many who die do not appear in obituaries.

    Replies: @prime noticer

  26. You know what they say about covid? Even if you survive, the symptoms might be terrible? I think this applies here too. Even if you survive getting shot, i’d still rather not get shot. Or stabbed, or whatever.

    I don’t know any specific numbers for how many black males in st Louis get shot or stabbed but survived. But we could probably use Steve’s law of mass shootings to take a guess. Maybe 10:1? That would be around 3% per year, or a 90% chance over 75 years. Can it really be that high? That seems too high, but the math is what it is. Maybe it’s the same group of gang members getting shot/stabbed multiple times.

  27. The Infection Fatality Rate of COVID is give/take 0.2%, almost zero below 35. ‘We’ close the global economy down for a risk comparable with US urban homicide. Maybe Fauci should dabble in crime prevention?

  28. The newspaper in Bergamo, Italy on about March 16, 2020 printed 10 pages of obituaries:

    In contrast, I’ve often argued that society as a whole isn’t losing as much in the way of productive individuals as the raw death counts suggest in contrast to the Spanish Flu of 1918 that mostly killed young men and thus left behind a lot of widows and orphans.

    But the raw death tolls among the elderly and infirm are sizable.

  29. Anonymous[342] • Disclaimer says:

    Well, take 2020’s 99.694% chance of not being murdered and raise it to the 75th power. I come up with your chances of not being murdered over 75 years as a black man in St. Louis are a little under 80%.

    I’d say that 2020’s rate of black males being shot in St. Louis, suggesting a one in five chance of being murdered there over the course of a 75-year-lifespan is indeed high in absolute terms.

    (If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)

    This seems obviously wrong. In 2021, those being murdered were probably born 1980-2000. In 2031, it’ll be those born 1990-2010. It’s not the same population being whittled down year after year but the up and comers. If you can make it out of your gangbanger years alive, presumably you’re home free.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Anonymous

    True, but that says that the black male homicide victimization rate from, say, 13 to 39, must be so high that it all averages out to what I said in the end.

    Being murdered, by the way, is one of the few problems in statistical reasoning where the chance of it happening to you more than once, which usually complicates matters, is irrelevant.

    Replies: @res, @Bill Jones

    , @edkpyros
    @Anonymous

    Sure, but the homicide rate is for all ages, so that simply means that the odds for those in the 18-34 age bracket are far, far higher than the average for all black males.

    Replies: @Abolish_public_education

  30. @Anonymous

    Well, take 2020’s 99.694% chance of not being murdered and raise it to the 75th power. I come up with your chances of not being murdered over 75 years as a black man in St. Louis are a little under 80%.

    I’d say that 2020’s rate of black males being shot in St. Louis, suggesting a one in five chance of being murdered there over the course of a 75-year-lifespan is indeed high in absolute terms.

    (If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)
     

    This seems obviously wrong. In 2021, those being murdered were probably born 1980-2000. In 2031, it'll be those born 1990-2010. It's not the same population being whittled down year after year but the up and comers. If you can make it out of your gangbanger years alive, presumably you're home free.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @edkpyros

    True, but that says that the black male homicide victimization rate from, say, 13 to 39, must be so high that it all averages out to what I said in the end.

    Being murdered, by the way, is one of the few problems in statistical reasoning where the chance of it happening to you more than once, which usually complicates matters, is irrelevant.

    • Replies: @res
    @Steve Sailer


    True, but that says that the black male homicide victimization rate from, say, 13 to 39, must be so high that it all averages out to what I said in the end.
     
    I had the same initial though as Anon342, but on reflection decided that take of yours is probably correct.

    Perhaps worth noting that there is a small effect in your favor going from arithmetic average (crime rates across age groups) to geometric average (roughly equivalent to chance of survival for one person). At the yearly survival (your 99.694%) numbers we are talking here it probably does not matter, but consider 0.75 * 0.75 = 0.5625 > 0.5 = 0.5 * 1
    , @Bill Jones
    @Steve Sailer


    Being murdered, by the way, is one of the few problems in statistical reasoning where the chance of it happening to you more than once, which usually complicates matters, is irrelevant.
     
    But it happened to the Sainted Floyd.
    He was murdered once premeditatedly. He was then murdered once just on a whim with no premeditation, and then just to make sure, he was man-slaughtered.
  31. @Morton's toes
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Check out this comment:

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/07/links-7-24-2021.html#comment-3578254

    (That fellow is 1. sort of a Buzz Mohawk of Naked Capitalism; 2. a doctor treating covid patients the website owner is in constant communication with.)

    Replies: @JimDandy, @for-the-record, @Almost Missouri

    Check out this comment

    Check out this snapshot on data from Israel from the week of June 27 – July 3:

    • Replies: @Morton's toes
    @for-the-record

    I saw that.

    If you have followed the history of influenza vaccinations at all you might find this expected. An influenza vaccination gives you a marginal improved outcome historically. It is little better than a do nothing. The biggest reason to do it is the pharmaceutical companies that sell the vaccines love them and they bribe the physicians to promote it.

    It is better than a do nothing. By a small amount. There are a million things the governments could be doing to improve the welfare of their citizens on the list above most vaccinations.

    (I am not a physician or a virologist.)

    , @Russ
    @for-the-record

    Thank you for that table. It may be the only information missing from Alex Berenson's 12 July 2021 digest on vaccine performance in UK, Israel, and the US.

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccines-reasons-for-concern-part

    Pulitzer-worthy work, in honest times.

    , @res
    @for-the-record

    Here is a discussion of that chart along with links to the data.

    https://trialsitenews.com/covid-19-case-data-in-israel-a-troubling-trend/

    Replies: @vhrm

  32. @schnellandine

    (If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)
     
    Sure. A better way is to refrain. Your assumptions and conclusions are fantastic and irrelevant.

    Baffled how otherwise intelligent people can moglify stats by years and figure it means what they think it means. The ultimate whittling down of your approach is "100%"; if you filter the results to those most 'likely' to be killed, honing it with scrupulous foresight and accuracy, those actually murdered were 100% at risk of their eventual murders. There's the answer: The at-risk population of St. Blah Blah suffers a 100% murder rate. "It's a Shanda, Larry!"

    Conversely, the other rate is 0%. Soothing.

    Replies: @AndrewR, @tyrone, @Wade Hampton

    Everyone is aware that blacks are disproportionately harmed by Democrat “pro-black” policies, which also cause plenty of extra harm to non-blacks. But no one in power (and their civilian enablers) cares, because they’re evil.

  33. Everyone living in a high murder area changes their behavior to try to avoid being murdered. The percentage of the population actually murdered may be small, but the percentage adversely affected by a high murder rate is 100%.

    • Agree: Abe, J.Ross
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @jb

    In 1939, my mother took the trolley downtown to the picture show about 4 nights per week. That's a better life than sitting at home watching TV because it's dangerous to go out. (Of course, the movies were better in 1939.)

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @jb


    Everyone living in a high murder area changes their behavior to try to avoid being murdered. The percentage of the population actually murdered may be small, but the percentage adversely affected by a high murder rate is 100%.
     
    The chillin' effect.
  34. @Ghost of Bull Moose
    Maybe the murder rampage will settle enough scores and take out enough dirtbags to serve the same purpose as giving them three hots and a cot. I think this is an under-appreciated aspect of the broken-windows, tough-on-crime recovery after the crack wars that everyone uses as a cope. I'm beyond caring about black-on black crime. What concerns me is the wilding and 'random' attacks on others that went along with the crack wars.

    This is not going to get better. A pack of 'teens' stomped an off duty firefighter in Queens yesterday and the press has to reflexively feign being perplexed at the randomness of it all. They started on Asians, they're moving on to everyone else. This time the press will be working overtime to follow the well worn formula of first denying it is happening and then justifying it when it can't be denied. "How did we fail these poor teens who curb-stomped the privileged (spit) white fire-fighter (spit)?"

    Replies: @Charon, @Jay Fink

    Yep. The so-called “prestige media” is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)

    • Replies: @Ralph L
    @Charon

    How like the Daily Mail to include the name and age of the dog. They're not always accurate, but they love those details.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz

    , @Joe Stalin
    @Charon


    Suddenly, the father-of-three was swarmed by 'at least 100 kids'
     
    As Joe Biden recently stated:

    “The idea you need a weapon that can have the ability to fire 20, 30, 40, 50, 120 shots from that weapon, whether it’s a 9-millimeter pistol or whether it’s a rifle, is ridiculous,” Biden said. “I’m continuing to push to eliminate the sale of those things.”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/joe-bidens-gun-policies-are-far-more-draconian-than-politifact-concedes/
     
    Black swarming militias are a defacto STANDARD in the war of Blacks-on-Everyone-Else in this 21st century; no wonder they want your AR and standard capacity magazines.
    , @Paperback Writer
    @Charon

    I don't understand why you go to the trouble of adding a screenshot but not the link.

    The man had the cheek to speak to the "youths" about fireworks.

    https://abc7ny.com/new-york-city-queens-attack-middle-village/10908165/

    https://www.amny.com/new-york/queens/brutes-in-queens-beat-up-man-who-complained-about-fireworks/

    The "youths" in the latter link look white. That's why they felt the freedom to refer to the kids as "brutes."

    , @prosa123
    @Charon

    Juniper Valley Park is not in a bad area by any stretch of the imagination. Middle Village is quite nice and very safe.
    Fun fact: St. John's Cemetery, just a few blocks from the park, is the burial spot for most of the big-time Mafia chiefs.

    , @J.Ross
    @Charon

    I fail to see the contradiction with Bill deBlasio's plan, which always was "police and fire and EMS can go to hell."
    And the Justice Department just let every Democrat governor off the hook for killing elderly nursing home inmates.
    Please Covid become real and kill everyone.

    , @Sick 'n Tired
    @Charon

    I feel there is going to be another Bernie Goetz incident in NYC very soon. It's the law of averages.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    , @Truth
    @Charon

    LMAO! HE GOT THE SHIT BEATEN OUT OF HIM BY A GROUP OF HONKEEZ!

    https://www.theblaze.com/news/new-york-city-crime-firefighter-attack

    Steve, quick, delete the thread!

  35. @Rob
    @Ben Kurtz

    About half of blacks are not smart enough to join the military. Yet more have serious convictions that are no-no’s for the military…it just is not true that anyone can join the army and climb. The IQ requirement pretty much only prevents whites who are MR/DD from signing up, but it is a bar for lots of blacks who are normal blacks, they just drew fewer than average +IQ alleles from a distribution with fewer + alleles than other people residing in first world countries.

    I am not saying that the army should take dumber peopke. I am just saying that they don’t.

    Replies: @Charon, @edkpyros

    But they will. Look how college admissions standards have essentially been trashed because they weren’t resulting in the “right” people getting enough positions.

    Same thing is happening with the military, as well it should. If anyone thinks this might have implications w.r.t. so-called “military readiness” I invite you to enjoy the news of the past five years.

  36. @Sebastian
    Steve, are you aware that some municipalities now charge a "crime report" fee of $20? A friend of mine had $200 nicked from his car at a gas station. Called the cops. Cops came and took the details and then asked if he'd like to "file a crime report" for $20. He said no, he'd been robbed once already.

    An astute observer would notice a pattern in the sorts of places that have implemented the fee. Let's just say it's not the "nice neighborhoods". Mayors love it -- it makes them look like they're doing something and the police occasionally bring in some extra money.

    Because it's not implemented in the "nice neighborhoods" it's sort-of flown below the radar of the sort of people who might question to what degree the "crime report fee" has factored into trends in the FBI's crime statistics.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Charon

    State and local governments are charging user fees for virtually everything now. Seems fair, right? Those who use services should pay for them.

    Only….what are all our tax dollars going for, then? Just to support a do-nothing, self-perpetuating government bureaucracy?

    Then there’s the fact that privileged minorities get everything for free anyway, and are excused from user fees.

    • Agree: KenH
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Charon

    I suspect that the loved ones of murder victims still aren't charged a Crime Report Fee, so that murder stats are more accurate than most other crime stats.

    , @Abolish_public_education
    @Charon

    User fees for public schools are long overdue. Originally, the free part of public education meant "free men", i.e. Whites only.

    $15,000/yr per kid sounds about right. Sorry, no sibling discount.

  37. @jb
    Everyone living in a high murder area changes their behavior to try to avoid being murdered. The percentage of the population actually murdered may be small, but the percentage adversely affected by a high murder rate is 100%.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Reg Cæsar

    In 1939, my mother took the trolley downtown to the picture show about 4 nights per week. That’s a better life than sitting at home watching TV because it’s dangerous to go out. (Of course, the movies were better in 1939.)

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Steve Sailer


    In 1939, my mother took the trolley downtown to the picture show about 4 nights per week.
     
    This wasn't in LA, was it? Wasn't the system dismantled by then?

    Replies: @res

  38. The obvious answer is that there is no “absolute term” on the question. There are two many variable involved that indicate murder is not constant, it is not fixed and has more to do with the circumstance than mere kin color.

    The underlying truth underneath this sarcastic repartee; is no . It is not 8x higher for all african americans “all” representing an absolute value. but for a select group as and yet we have used that model for the express purpose of targeting citizens with black skin. Essentially making all blacks suspects at first sight.

    But one should never allow reasoning to get in the way of a working agenda built by people with high IQ’s.

    • Replies: @Charon
    @EliteCommInc.


    There are two many variable involved that indicate murder is not constant, it is not fixed and has more to do with the circumstance than mere kin color.
     
    I'll put this as kindly as I can. No one even implied that murder is a constant, nor did anyone say it has only one cause.

    The stats, however, are vastly more coherent than your "reasoning" appears to be, not to mention your series of fanciful assertions. To be taken seriously, you're going to have to construct a logical argument of some kind.

    Incidentally, "we" are not the people targeting blacks, unless perhaps you yourself are black, and by "we" you mean yourself and your cohorts.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @danand

    , @Alfa158
    @EliteCommInc.

    That’s right it is not 8x as high for every Black person everywhere, because it will be lower than 8x for middle class and older Black people, higher than 8x for poorer and younger Black people. For example comment number 19 on this thread quotes the numbers for the city of Chicago where the murder rate for Black people is 23x that for White people.
    The fact remains that for all Black people as a group in the US it is 8 times as high as it is for all White people as group, and 12 times as high as it is for all Asian people as a group. That doesn’t justify treating every Black person as a suspect, but it does put the lie to the notion that Black people are being disproportionately prosecuted because of their race. They are committing crime at a higher rate and being prosecuted at the same higher rate.
    I’m not going to regard every Black person as a criminal ready to pounce, but in life you play the odds so I’m not going to move into a predominantly Black community either. Black “people with high IQ’s” agree with me. They get out of Black communities first chance they get.

    , @Gamecock
    @EliteCommInc.

    I've always wondered, EliteCommInc., do you get dirt in your nose with your head buried in the sand?

  39. I won’t nitpick at your statistical model because I also like simple good-enough models to help me think. But even accepting your model, the picture is worse than your p⁷⁵; p is lower in some years (eg at age 17) than in others (eg age 70) the product of those heterogeneous p’s will be lower than the 75th power of the average p. You can see this in a simple example: 0.1×0.9 < 0.5×0.5.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @International Jew

    So the average years lost due to murder is more than the 20% likelihood of being murdered?

    , @International Jew
    @International Jew

    Sorry, I take that back. With very small numbers, the effect is negligible.

  40. @Charon
    @Sebastian

    State and local governments are charging user fees for virtually everything now. Seems fair, right? Those who use services should pay for them.

    Only....what are all our tax dollars going for, then? Just to support a do-nothing, self-perpetuating government bureaucracy?

    Then there's the fact that privileged minorities get everything for free anyway, and are excused from user fees.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Abolish_public_education

    I suspect that the loved ones of murder victims still aren’t charged a Crime Report Fee, so that murder stats are more accurate than most other crime stats.

  41. @International Jew
    I won't nitpick at your statistical model because I also like simple good-enough models to help me think. But even accepting your model, the picture is worse than your p⁷⁵; p is lower in some years (eg at age 17) than in others (eg age 70) the product of those heterogeneous p's will be lower than the 75th power of the average p. You can see this in a simple example: 0.1×0.9 < 0.5×0.5.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @International Jew

    So the average years lost due to murder is more than the 20% likelihood of being murdered?

  42. @International Jew
    I won't nitpick at your statistical model because I also like simple good-enough models to help me think. But even accepting your model, the picture is worse than your p⁷⁵; p is lower in some years (eg at age 17) than in others (eg age 70) the product of those heterogeneous p's will be lower than the 75th power of the average p. You can see this in a simple example: 0.1×0.9 < 0.5×0.5.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @International Jew

    Sorry, I take that back. With very small numbers, the effect is negligible.

  43. This plus your Sailer theory on mass shootings suggest we need to give our black brethren more small-arms marksman training. The few additional White lives lost will be rewarded with a markedly improved toll in da hood.

  44. @EliteCommInc.
    The obvious answer is that there is no "absolute term" on the question. There are two many variable involved that indicate murder is not constant, it is not fixed and has more to do with the circumstance than mere kin color.

    The underlying truth underneath this sarcastic repartee; is no . It is not 8x higher for all african americans "all" representing an absolute value. but for a select group as and yet we have used that model for the express purpose of targeting citizens with black skin. Essentially making all blacks suspects at first sight.

    But one should never allow reasoning to get in the way of a working agenda built by people with high IQ's.

    Replies: @Charon, @Alfa158, @Gamecock

    There are two many variable involved that indicate murder is not constant, it is not fixed and has more to do with the circumstance than mere kin color.

    I’ll put this as kindly as I can. No one even implied that murder is a constant, nor did anyone say it has only one cause.

    The stats, however, are vastly more coherent than your “reasoning” appears to be, not to mention your series of fanciful assertions. To be taken seriously, you’re going to have to construct a logical argument of some kind.

    Incidentally, “we” are not the people targeting blacks, unless perhaps you yourself are black, and by “we” you mean yourself and your cohorts.

    • Agree: gandydancer
    • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @Charon

    He's black.

    , @danand
    @Charon

    “Incidentally, “we” are not the people targeting blacks, unless perhaps you yourself are black, and by “we” you mean yourself and your cohorts.”

    Fortunately Wakanda decedents preferred targets are other Wakanda decedents, but as Steve reiterates; their aim is often more miss, than hit. An automatic weapon makes that less of a hindrance. A segment from Saturday evenings local TV news broadcast:

    https://youtu.be/eFQ3nCNKQIs

    An “intended” succumbed, as well as a “wrong place” homeless person. A few others injured.

    The city, San Rafeal (NW of San Francisco) in which this “event” occurred is lucky to count relatively few Africant Americants among its populous:

    https://flic.kr/p/2mdiHnG

    Unfortunately for them the cities to the East are slowly becoming more vibrant, as feeder cities Oakland and East Palo Alto, slowly, but steadily become less so.

    The interesting aspect of the story, a least to me, is that the police told the event host “not have any more hip hop shows”, to which she responded (~1:50 point in segment) she was sad to hear. Wonder if she is sad for potential revenue loss, that vibrant peoples have one less place to do what they do, or that the clubs in the cities in which the vibrants reside are already “too hip” to them to let them hop in their clubs.

    I would guess San Rafael’s police chief’s reward for attempting to save his cities people will be an invitation to retire early.

  45. @schnellandine

    (If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)
     
    Sure. A better way is to refrain. Your assumptions and conclusions are fantastic and irrelevant.

    Baffled how otherwise intelligent people can moglify stats by years and figure it means what they think it means. The ultimate whittling down of your approach is "100%"; if you filter the results to those most 'likely' to be killed, honing it with scrupulous foresight and accuracy, those actually murdered were 100% at risk of their eventual murders. There's the answer: The at-risk population of St. Blah Blah suffers a 100% murder rate. "It's a Shanda, Larry!"

    Conversely, the other rate is 0%. Soothing.

    Replies: @AndrewR, @tyrone, @Wade Hampton

    ” moglify stats “??…..??…..what does The Jungle Book have to do with it? …..oh. maybe you you are referring to the scene with the Louis Prima song and the apes……a perennial favorite ….

  46. @for-the-record
    @Morton's toes

    Check out this comment

    Check out this snapshot on data from Israel from the week of June 27 - July 3:

    https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Israel-210724.jpg

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Russ, @res

    I saw that.

    If you have followed the history of influenza vaccinations at all you might find this expected. An influenza vaccination gives you a marginal improved outcome historically. It is little better than a do nothing. The biggest reason to do it is the pharmaceutical companies that sell the vaccines love them and they bribe the physicians to promote it.

    It is better than a do nothing. By a small amount. There are a million things the governments could be doing to improve the welfare of their citizens on the list above most vaccinations.

    (I am not a physician or a virologist.)

  47. @Steve Sailer
    @t

    So the black male rate in Chicago looks a little under half of St. Louis's very high rate last year.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Mike Tre

    Only one out of every six shooting victims in Chicago actually die. So the shooting victim rate would be what; 600/100,000?

    Seems significant.

  48. @for-the-record
    @Morton's toes

    Check out this comment

    Check out this snapshot on data from Israel from the week of June 27 - July 3:

    https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Israel-210724.jpg

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Russ, @res

    Thank you for that table. It may be the only information missing from Alex Berenson’s 12 July 2021 digest on vaccine performance in UK, Israel, and the US.

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccines-reasons-for-concern-part

    Pulitzer-worthy work, in honest times.

  49. The north side of St. Louis is entirely black while the south side is mostly white, so the murder rate if you looked at just the north side would be even higher.

  50. Steve is thinking about murder, so OF COURSE his mind immediately shifts to St. Louis.

    Good going there, native city.

    I personally estimate the black murder rate in St. Louis in 2020 to be around 160 per 100k.

  51. If you assume the lion’s share (essentially all) of victims are between 10 and 40, what are the chances of a 10 y.o. black male reaching 41?

  52. How’s their hate working for them? You should be aware of it since they have the power to do awful things with it and that puts you in danger. That suggests that we’d do well to find more productive things than mere hatred.

    We don’t have the strength for that luxury. Hillsong itself isn’t incidental to that weakness.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Desiderius

    https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1335656957299085312?s=20

  53. The best way to look at murder rate in absolute terms is to see where it ranks on causes of death for your age group.

    If it ranks above ‘Choking to death when eating food’ but below ‘Being hit by lightning’, then it is low in absolute terms.

    • LOL: prosa123
  54. @JimB

    I’d say that 2020’s rate of black males being shot in St. Louis, suggesting a one in five chance of being murdered there over the course of a 75-year-lifespan is indeed high in absolute terms.
     
    Right. The chance of dying from some form of cancer is one in six so we go for annual health screenings and let a doctor shove a six foot hose up our backside once every decade.

    Replies: @guest007

    The one in six is only if one lives to 70 years old. The longer one lives, the greater the chance of dying from cancer. The only thing that keeps every of dying from cancer is something else kills one first.

    Also, the colonoscopy is only for colon cancer but is so effective at preventing people from dying from cancer is that the NIH cut back of sponsoring research on colon therapy cancers. If one is to vain to get a coloscopy, then why should the tax payer fund novel therapies for a preventable disease.

    • Replies: @JimB
    @guest007


    The longer one lives, the greater the chance of dying from cancer.
     
    Along with everything else. Cardiovascular disease is the unavoidable main player in elder death since it leads to pathologies of the brain, kidneys, and liver. More very old people die with cancer rather than from it. I have a lot of centenarians in my family and they were all at some point diagnosed with skin, thyroid, or prostate cancer, usually in their 70s or 80s, but none of them died or were even slightly incapacitated by these cancers. In all cases, my elder relatives died when their brains shorted out rather suddenly due to arteriosclerosis.

    Replies: @guest007

  55. @Ben Kurtz
    What to do if you are a black man in St. Louis and wish to avoid getting murdered? Join the Army. Data from Chicago shows that the risk of being a murder victim is very high between ages 20 to 30, approximately. If the Army can get you out of that environment for those ten years, you can eventually return to the 'hood and and enjoy much lower odds getting shot.

    https://heyjackass.com/2021-age-of-victim/

    And if the Army won't take you, maybe get yourself sent to prison somewhere far away? With modern catch-and-release prosecutors, though, that may be tough.

    Replies: @Rob, @guest007

    Does anyone think that all of those students in Baltimore with the 1.0 GPAs and reading at the third grade level could last in the Army (or any branch of the military for 10 years). More than likely, even if they could qualify to enlist, the would quickly be chaptered out of the Army and back in Chicago.

  56. @Charon
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Yep. The so-called "prestige media" is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)


    https://i.ibb.co/SwR2rck/Capture-2021-07-25-05-30-22-2.png

    Replies: @Ralph L, @Joe Stalin, @Paperback Writer, @prosa123, @J.Ross, @Sick 'n Tired, @Truth

    How like the Daily Mail to include the name and age of the dog. They’re not always accurate, but they love those details.

    • LOL: Polistra
    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    @Ralph L

    Hence my suggestion that one try to get oneself sent to Camp Fed in Danbury, if the Army doesn't in pan out.

  57. res says:
    @Steve Sailer
    @Sebastian

    Thanks. I hadn't heard that. I guess that's for reports to file with insurance companies.

    Here's a 2007 report on crime report fees in California: e.g., San Jose charges $15 and Palo Alto $10 but Davis is free:

    https://calaware.org/audits/2007-law-enforcement-audit-follow-up/audit-report/

    Replies: @res

    It’s unclear to me whether Sebastian is talking about a filing fee (appears to be the case) or the common fee for getting a copy of the report which is discussed in your document. Here is the relevant section (near the bottom of your link).

    4. Overcharging the Victim
    Those involved in a traffic accident or victimized by a crime have but one source for the official record confirming their experience to supply to an insurance company or the state’s crime victims restitution fund. There is no alternative supply of such documents if they do not purchase them from the department that investigated the accident or crime. Moreover, the great majority of such unfortunate persons will probably need such records only once, and have little or no incentive to question the amount charged to obtain them. Accordingly, the survey found numerous examples of departments requiring such requesters to pay a fee for crime or accident reports far beyond what the law allows as the “direct cost of duplication.” The most accommodating policy found was to charge crime and accident victims nothing at all, such as in Davis, Santa Rosa, Carlsbad, Galt, Glendora (for the first five pages), Santa Clara Sheriff (for the first 50 pages), and Sacramento (for the first 49 pages). The lawful and still citizen-friendly policy—to charge the same low per page fee to all requesters for all records copies—is the standard for departments like Coronado, Campbell (5 cents), Dublin, Berkeley, Contra Costa Sheriff, Piedmont, Pleasanton (10 cents), Beverly Hills (20 cents), Banning, Redding, South San Francisco and Brentwood (25 cents). Beyond these simple and reasonable standards is a wide variation of approaches, many of which set a price on crime and accident reports very far beyond what could possibly be a recovery of the direct cost of duplication per page. A sampling of these rates:

    Not sure why that needs to happen (other than the obvious money grab) given that the records are most likely electronic.

    P.S. If Sebastian’s example really was a filing fee I’d like to hear more since I don’t know of those.

    • Agree: vhrm
    • Replies: @Gamecock
    @res


    Those involved in a traffic accident or victimized by a crime have but one source for the official record confirming their experience to supply to an insurance company
     
    Maybe they got so tired of insurance companies pestering them for reports that they put a fee on it.
  58. res says:
    @Steve Sailer
    @Anonymous

    True, but that says that the black male homicide victimization rate from, say, 13 to 39, must be so high that it all averages out to what I said in the end.

    Being murdered, by the way, is one of the few problems in statistical reasoning where the chance of it happening to you more than once, which usually complicates matters, is irrelevant.

    Replies: @res, @Bill Jones

    True, but that says that the black male homicide victimization rate from, say, 13 to 39, must be so high that it all averages out to what I said in the end.

    I had the same initial though as Anon342, but on reflection decided that take of yours is probably correct.

    Perhaps worth noting that there is a small effect in your favor going from arithmetic average (crime rates across age groups) to geometric average (roughly equivalent to chance of survival for one person). At the yearly survival (your 99.694%) numbers we are talking here it probably does not matter, but consider 0.75 * 0.75 = 0.5625 > 0.5 = 0.5 * 1

  59. @for-the-record
    @Morton's toes

    Check out this comment

    Check out this snapshot on data from Israel from the week of June 27 - July 3:

    https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Israel-210724.jpg

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Russ, @res

    Here is a discussion of that chart along with links to the data.

    https://trialsitenews.com/covid-19-case-data-in-israel-a-troubling-trend/

    • Thanks: Morton's toes
    • Replies: @vhrm
    @res

    A thing i've only recently become aware of is a (claimed) difference between "mucosal immunity" and "systemic immunity". The vaccines confer the later, but little of the former.


    People are most infectious during the early stages of infection, when the virus is largely restricted to the nasopharyngeal mucosa. Indeed, it’s possible for people to be highly infectious without the virus spreading to other parts of the body or causing severe illness.

    Importantly, the immune system responds differently to mucosal and systemic infections. A systemic immune response, which works across large swathes of the body, is associated with creating one type of antibody, IgG. Immunity generated in the mucosa (also called secretory immunity) is associated with creating another, IgA. As a result, immunisations that focus on generating systemic immunity – which is what injected vaccines do – rarely induce mucosal immunity. This likely applies to all the COVID-19 vaccines currently available.

    https://theconversation.com/covid-19-vaccines-are-probably-less-effective-at-preventing-transmission-than-symptoms-heres-why-156611
     

    i haven't spent much time on discerning the level of effects and crossover (and don't know if they're known), but the situation is more nuanced than "immune" vs "susceptible" and it seems not really fair to say that a "breakthrough case" is indicative of vaccine failure.

    But also it suggests that being vaccinated basically doesn't make you a significantly lesser threat of contagion (especially when faced with delta which supposedly spews a lot more virus particles (?)); though it just makes you less likely to get seriously sick.

    This, as much as it pains me to say, makes some of Fauci's, teachers unions' and friends' calls to maintain some distancing and other protection protocols even for vaccinated people make sense. Though it's at odds with how vaccines were originally sold / promised and with people's general understanding of vaccines.

    And the lack of any nuanced cost-benefit analysis all along makes this a communications nightmare.

    Another article about the different immunities from back in Nov; i don't grok it all, but sounds like it's quite a legit distinction.

    ...
    Most attention has been given to virus-neutralizing antibodies, especially circulating antibodies (13–15). However, these can only be effective in the prevention of infection or disease if they reach the mucosal surfaces where the virus is present, and it should be noted that circulating IgA, even in polymeric form, is not effectively transported into secretions (16).
    ...
    Almost all efforts at vaccine development against COVID-19 focus on systemic injection, which predominantly induces circulatory IgG antibodies and, potentially, cytotoxic T cells (18). These routes are poorly effective at generating mucosal immune responses, which can only be induced by mucosal routes of immunization, including through the NALT in the URT. Mucosal immune responses are partly compartmentalized, as the distribution of the responses depends on the actual route of induction (7, 19).
    ...
    In summary, based on the route whereby SARS-CoV-2 infection is acquired and the independence of mucosal and systemic responses, there must be a mucosal immune dimension to COVID-19. Whether it makes a significant contribution to the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection, or can be exploited to good effect for diagnostic purposes or for therapy and prophylaxis, can only be determined by carrying out appropriate investigations.
    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337/full

     

    Replies: @Morton's toes

  60. In absolute terms, it only takes murder committed by black gangs to make that neighborhood off limits to me. I won’t buy a house there, won’t shop or go for walks in the park there. If there is just one murder by black gangs at the high school I won’t send my kid there.
    Do low murder rates understate the impact that murder has on people’s lives?
    If you go into the pasture and shoot one of the cows, the rest of the herd will stay nervous for a very long time.

  61. @Anon
    US military hostile fatality rate in Operation Iraqi Freedom: 335 per 100,000

    US military hostile fatality rate in Vietnam War: 1818 per 100,000


    Source: https://academic.oup.com/milmed/article-pdf/175/4/220/21584815/milmed-d-09-00130.pdf

    Replies: @edkpyros, @prosa123

    Sure, but no Americans fought in Iraq or Vietnam for their entire lives—whereas people do live in St. Louis from birth to death.

  62. @Anonymous

    Well, take 2020’s 99.694% chance of not being murdered and raise it to the 75th power. I come up with your chances of not being murdered over 75 years as a black man in St. Louis are a little under 80%.

    I’d say that 2020’s rate of black males being shot in St. Louis, suggesting a one in five chance of being murdered there over the course of a 75-year-lifespan is indeed high in absolute terms.

    (If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)
     

    This seems obviously wrong. In 2021, those being murdered were probably born 1980-2000. In 2031, it'll be those born 1990-2010. It's not the same population being whittled down year after year but the up and comers. If you can make it out of your gangbanger years alive, presumably you're home free.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @edkpyros

    Sure, but the homicide rate is for all ages, so that simply means that the odds for those in the 18-34 age bracket are far, far higher than the average for all black males.

    • Replies: @Abolish_public_education
    @edkpyros

    Homicide statistics are not my field.

    I suspect that the prime, killing age range, i.e. when a BMs chance of getting murdered is significantly higher than in the out years, is actually within years 17-45.

    P(living to age 17) must be ~1, so the calculation should simplify to:

    (Odds of not getting murdered during a prime year)^29.

  63. @Rob
    @Ben Kurtz

    About half of blacks are not smart enough to join the military. Yet more have serious convictions that are no-no’s for the military…it just is not true that anyone can join the army and climb. The IQ requirement pretty much only prevents whites who are MR/DD from signing up, but it is a bar for lots of blacks who are normal blacks, they just drew fewer than average +IQ alleles from a distribution with fewer + alleles than other people residing in first world countries.

    I am not saying that the army should take dumber peopke. I am just saying that they don’t.

    Replies: @Charon, @edkpyros

    Absolutely:

    “Between October 1995 and September 1996, only 51 applicants from the greater Harlem area made it into the Army, from an area population of 17,000 youths aged 17 to 21.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB852502554635330000

  64. @Reg Cæsar

    I was walking our dog late one night on a visit to Pittsburgh and as we came back into the hotel lobby there right behind us was Jackie Mason — not the celeb you’d expect to see in the Steel City

  65. St Louis murder stories give me the chance to recycle a favorite mental exercise — if 100,000 city residents attend a Cardinals weekend series, how many will be murdered that year or that lifetime?

    Of course many Cards fans live outside the city limits, raising one issue with all these comparisons of urban killing fields, Philly vs Chicago etc etc — the per capita and total stats all depend on how tight or loose the city limits are drawn. Jacksonville perhaps could vie for one of our top murder capitals if its city boundaries did not stretch so far into whiter and thus less murderous areas.

  66. Could they be charging a fee to discourage victims from filing for minor offenses, so their stats look better?

  67. @Morton's toes
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Check out this comment:

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/07/links-7-24-2021.html#comment-3578254

    (That fellow is 1. sort of a Buzz Mohawk of Naked Capitalism; 2. a doctor treating covid patients the website owner is in constant communication with.)

    Replies: @JimDandy, @for-the-record, @Almost Missouri

    From the doctor’s comment:

    I have been a physician for 30 years and that experience plays a huge role as well. Having this gigantic number of breakthrough cases just simply does not happen. I continue to see more than half the cases in vaccinated patients and so do many others. UNHEARD OF IN VACCINES BEFORE NOW.

    … It basically means the vaccinated have a much higher amount of viral active particles than the unvaccinated. That would account for the breakthroughs I and my colleagues are seeing being a bit more ill. And it would explain the clustering. THe vaccinated breakthroughs have much higher viral load so they are much more contagious and the higher viral load makes them more symptomatic.

    So we now have a suggestion and strong evidence that the vaccinated population may be spreading much more virus than the unvaccinated. I would say that is a critical public health issue and must be further researched immediately.

    … The writers make the point that the breakthrough rate is extremely divergent from the expected rate. The difference is this paper documents what is happening in REAL LIFE. So much of what we are hearing on our media about vaccine efficacy is research being done in vitro. It is presented as gospel truth. I just want to scream.

    “Gigantic number” of breakthrough cases may be unheard of in human diseases, but it is not unheard of in animal diseases.

    As I keep pointing out, premature, half-assed vaccines have turned a minor nuisance into a genuine life-or-death global pandemic before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

    But who would be stupid enough to take the process of pharmaceutically inducing a lethal global epidemic in poultry and to repeat it in humans?

    Our stupid elites are just the ones.

    • Replies: @Morton's toes
    @Almost Missouri

    1. You omit the doctor's disclaimers and if people care I recommend they read all of his comment and all of the succeeding comments as well.

    2. If you think stupid elites made a stupid mistake here you may be mistaken. The clusterfux here may be going 97% according to their cunning plan.

    The frightening possibility is that this is no Deep State attack upon China but it is a James-Bond-Villain attack upon the entire global population. All of us. If you can eliminate this possibility you are in possession of very accurate and highly classified state intelligence.

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Almost Missouri

    This is probably just the Delta variant. The UK case numbers look like they have peaked and are on their way back down.

    , @gcochran
    @Almost Missouri

    You have it wrong.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  68. @prime noticer
    statistics project for Steve Sailer:

    Steve likes collecting and analyzing newspapers. how about Steve show us the obituary section of the biggest 10 newspapers over the last year, so we can settle once and for all whether the death rate for old people is way up.

    double the usual number of obituaries, referenced to the previous 20 years, is probably sufficient. if there isn't a pretty big increase in the number of obituaries and funeral home business, at least 50%, it's probably time for Steve to shut up about this stuff. a 15% increase in the number of dead 80 year olds on the other hand, doesn't qualify as a global national panic. 80 years old is already beyond the life expectancy rate.

    how about it Steve?

    Replies: @Gamecock

    Obituaries are useless for scientific study. They are discretionary. Many who die do not appear in obituaries.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    @Gamecock

    are they useless? how would you know? have you done a longitudinal study of them over time, comparing them to the time periods of various health crises?

    that's one of Steve's favorite things to do with newspapers. how about trying it?

    especially, left wing newspapers would seem to be very interested in juicing up those numbers. they LOVE reporting about the hillbilly that thought covid was a hoax, then died from it. they hate reporting on people who got killed by the vaccine though, or lost their legs or whatever.

    furthermore, has funeral home business boomed? what are the numbers on that?

    you guys aren't interested in jack shit. just your covid hysteria nonsense. all the usual data mining and analysis goes out the window here.

    Replies: @Gamecock

  69. @EliteCommInc.
    The obvious answer is that there is no "absolute term" on the question. There are two many variable involved that indicate murder is not constant, it is not fixed and has more to do with the circumstance than mere kin color.

    The underlying truth underneath this sarcastic repartee; is no . It is not 8x higher for all african americans "all" representing an absolute value. but for a select group as and yet we have used that model for the express purpose of targeting citizens with black skin. Essentially making all blacks suspects at first sight.

    But one should never allow reasoning to get in the way of a working agenda built by people with high IQ's.

    Replies: @Charon, @Alfa158, @Gamecock

    That’s right it is not 8x as high for every Black person everywhere, because it will be lower than 8x for middle class and older Black people, higher than 8x for poorer and younger Black people. For example comment number 19 on this thread quotes the numbers for the city of Chicago where the murder rate for Black people is 23x that for White people.
    The fact remains that for all Black people as a group in the US it is 8 times as high as it is for all White people as group, and 12 times as high as it is for all Asian people as a group. That doesn’t justify treating every Black person as a suspect, but it does put the lie to the notion that Black people are being disproportionately prosecuted because of their race. They are committing crime at a higher rate and being prosecuted at the same higher rate.
    I’m not going to regard every Black person as a criminal ready to pounce, but in life you play the odds so I’m not going to move into a predominantly Black community either. Black “people with high IQ’s” agree with me. They get out of Black communities first chance they get.

  70. @EliteCommInc.
    The obvious answer is that there is no "absolute term" on the question. There are two many variable involved that indicate murder is not constant, it is not fixed and has more to do with the circumstance than mere kin color.

    The underlying truth underneath this sarcastic repartee; is no . It is not 8x higher for all african americans "all" representing an absolute value. but for a select group as and yet we have used that model for the express purpose of targeting citizens with black skin. Essentially making all blacks suspects at first sight.

    But one should never allow reasoning to get in the way of a working agenda built by people with high IQ's.

    Replies: @Charon, @Alfa158, @Gamecock

    I’ve always wondered, EliteCommInc., do you get dirt in your nose with your head buried in the sand?

  71. @JimDandy
    @Morton's toes

    So, in other words, the vaccinated are a bunch of Typhoid Marys, spreading it to the unvaccinated, creating the argument that the unvaccinated need to get vaccinated to protected themselves from the vaccinated.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @J.Ross

    It’s Marek’s disease all over again, but with humans instead of chickens this time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @Almost Missouri

    Damn.

    "The Marek's disease vaccine is a leaky vaccine, which means that only the symptoms of the disease are prevented. Infection of the host and the transmission of the virus are not inhibited by the vaccine. This contrasts with most other vaccines, where infection of the host is prevented. Under normal conditions, highly virulent strains of the virus are not selected. A highly virulent strain would kill the host before the virus would have an opportunity to transmit to other potential hosts and replicate. Thus, less virulent strains are selected. These strains are virulent enough to induce symptoms but not enough to kill the host, allowing further transmission. However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains. The vaccine's inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine.

    The evolution of Marek's disease due to vaccination has had a profound effect on the poultry industry. All chickens across the globe are now vaccinated against Marek's disease (birds hatched in private flocks for laying or exhibition are rarely vaccinated). Highly virulent strains have been selected to the point that any chicken that is unvaccinated will die if infected"

  72. @res
    @Steve Sailer

    It's unclear to me whether Sebastian is talking about a filing fee (appears to be the case) or the common fee for getting a copy of the report which is discussed in your document. Here is the relevant section (near the bottom of your link).


    4. Overcharging the Victim
    Those involved in a traffic accident or victimized by a crime have but one source for the official record confirming their experience to supply to an insurance company or the state’s crime victims restitution fund. There is no alternative supply of such documents if they do not purchase them from the department that investigated the accident or crime. Moreover, the great majority of such unfortunate persons will probably need such records only once, and have little or no incentive to question the amount charged to obtain them. Accordingly, the survey found numerous examples of departments requiring such requesters to pay a fee for crime or accident reports far beyond what the law allows as the “direct cost of duplication.” The most accommodating policy found was to charge crime and accident victims nothing at all, such as in Davis, Santa Rosa, Carlsbad, Galt, Glendora (for the first five pages), Santa Clara Sheriff (for the first 50 pages), and Sacramento (for the first 49 pages). The lawful and still citizen-friendly policy—to charge the same low per page fee to all requesters for all records copies—is the standard for departments like Coronado, Campbell (5 cents), Dublin, Berkeley, Contra Costa Sheriff, Piedmont, Pleasanton (10 cents), Beverly Hills (20 cents), Banning, Redding, South San Francisco and Brentwood (25 cents). Beyond these simple and reasonable standards is a wide variation of approaches, many of which set a price on crime and accident reports very far beyond what could possibly be a recovery of the direct cost of duplication per page. A sampling of these rates:
     
    Not sure why that needs to happen (other than the obvious money grab) given that the records are most likely electronic.

    P.S. If Sebastian's example really was a filing fee I'd like to hear more since I don't know of those.

    Replies: @Gamecock

    Those involved in a traffic accident or victimized by a crime have but one source for the official record confirming their experience to supply to an insurance company

    Maybe they got so tired of insurance companies pestering them for reports that they put a fee on it.

  73. @Charon
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Yep. The so-called "prestige media" is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)


    https://i.ibb.co/SwR2rck/Capture-2021-07-25-05-30-22-2.png

    Replies: @Ralph L, @Joe Stalin, @Paperback Writer, @prosa123, @J.Ross, @Sick 'n Tired, @Truth

    Suddenly, the father-of-three was swarmed by ‘at least 100 kids’

    As Joe Biden recently stated:

    “The idea you need a weapon that can have the ability to fire 20, 30, 40, 50, 120 shots from that weapon, whether it’s a 9-millimeter pistol or whether it’s a rifle, is ridiculous,” Biden said. “I’m continuing to push to eliminate the sale of those things.”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/joe-bidens-gun-policies-are-far-more-draconian-than-politifact-concedes/

    Black swarming militias are a defacto STANDARD in the war of Blacks-on-Everyone-Else in this 21st century; no wonder they want your AR and standard capacity magazines.

  74. An issue with Steve’s back of the envelope methodology is that, among black men, the chances of getting murdered are not totally equal with age. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 70-year old. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 1-year old. So, doing the 99.694% to the power of N is better if you restrict N to the highest testosterone number of years.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @countenance

    If we assume that blacks born in St. Louis stay in St. Louis until their deaths, every single black male born rises through the age cohorts year by year - thus the 16 year old of today was aged 0 sixteen years ago, Likewise, today's 40 year old black St. Louis resident was 24 years old 16 years ago. Assuming a constant, fixed birthrate, equal numbers enter and exit each year group annually. Thus the differential death rates affecting each age cohort are accounted for.

    , @James Speaks
    @countenance

    Here, I hep you wif yur maf:

    Even though Y-negroes in the yoofful vigor stage of life experience the highest murder rate as well as the highest impulse to murder, the 99.694% figure is for all negroes of all ages. Iffn yu want 2 do the maf for young, negro, virile, beautiful male babies wut carry guns, youse gots to use the death rate for negroes in that age brakket.

    , @Ben Kurtz
    @countenance

    The better way to construct this model is to assign a different murder survivorship percentage (i.e. odds a person WON'T be murdered in a given year) to each year of age based on current demographic crime data and then multiply those figures together seriatim for, say, 75 years of life. Kind of like how TFR is calculated for a population for any given year.

    You might simplify this slightly by using the same annual survivorship percentage for each year in a certain age range -- making up numbers for the sake of an example, you might say that until age 16 the annual murder survivorship is 99.99%, 17-36 it is 99.00%, 37-56 it is 99.75% and 57-75 it is 99.99%. Then your model would look like [lifetime not getting murdered odds] = [(0.9999)^16] * [(0.9900)^20] * [(0.9975)^20] * [(0.9999)^19] = 77.5%

    Anyway, the 99.694% per year figure is a lifetime average and the annual murder odds will be much worse during the prime murderin' ages (basically, the 20s) and much less oppressive during the other years.

    I previously linked some data out of Chicago which highlights just how much murder odds depend on age. As we'd both imagine, age matters a whole lot.

    Replies: @res

    , @vhrm
    @countenance


    An issue with Steve’s back of the envelope methodology is that, among black men, the chances of getting murdered are not totally equal with age. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 70-year old. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 1-year old. So, doing the 99.694% to the power of N is better if you restrict N to the highest testosterone number of years.
     
    Restricting all the killing to a 30 year period (to approximate ages 15 - 45) yields a 79.4% survival rate. Even going to a 1 year window it's 77.05%. So it stays within a very narrow range.


    Example for the 30 year period:
    Taking the 306 / 100k rate Steve has and assuming all of that is concentrated to 30 years of the 75 year lifespan means it's really 306 killings per / 40k people (30 / 75 = 0.4 * 100k = 40k people) .

    That's 99.235% not-murdered rate per year (vs steve's 99.694%).

    .99235 ^ 30 = 0.794= 79.4% chance of surviving one's murder years.

    Wolfram Alpha calculation where x is the size of the "killing window":

    real plot y=(1- (306 / (100000 * (x/ 75) ))) ^ x from x=1 to 75

    https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=real+plot+y%3D%281-+%28306+%2F+%28100000+*+%28x%2F+75%29+%29%29%29+%5E+x+++from+x%3D1+to+75

  75. @Almost Missouri
    @JimDandy

    It's Marek's disease all over again, but with humans instead of chickens this time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

    Replies: @JimDandy

    Damn.

    “The Marek’s disease vaccine is a leaky vaccine, which means that only the symptoms of the disease are prevented. Infection of the host and the transmission of the virus are not inhibited by the vaccine. This contrasts with most other vaccines, where infection of the host is prevented. Under normal conditions, highly virulent strains of the virus are not selected. A highly virulent strain would kill the host before the virus would have an opportunity to transmit to other potential hosts and replicate. Thus, less virulent strains are selected. These strains are virulent enough to induce symptoms but not enough to kill the host, allowing further transmission. However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains. The vaccine’s inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine.

    The evolution of Marek’s disease due to vaccination has had a profound effect on the poultry industry. All chickens across the globe are now vaccinated against Marek’s disease (birds hatched in private flocks for laying or exhibition are rarely vaccinated). Highly virulent strains have been selected to the point that any chicken that is unvaccinated will die if infected”

  76. @schnellandine

    (If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)
     
    Sure. A better way is to refrain. Your assumptions and conclusions are fantastic and irrelevant.

    Baffled how otherwise intelligent people can moglify stats by years and figure it means what they think it means. The ultimate whittling down of your approach is "100%"; if you filter the results to those most 'likely' to be killed, honing it with scrupulous foresight and accuracy, those actually murdered were 100% at risk of their eventual murders. There's the answer: The at-risk population of St. Blah Blah suffers a 100% murder rate. "It's a Shanda, Larry!"

    Conversely, the other rate is 0%. Soothing.

    Replies: @AndrewR, @tyrone, @Wade Hampton

    It’s important that American whites not notice that their black fellow citizens are absurdly more murderous than every other ethnic group.

    Why? Because if we noticed that inarguable fact, then we wouldn’t be able to pretend that that the degraded state of blacks was due to white racism. We’d have to attribute their degraded state to something intrinsic to blacks.

  77. Anonymous[408] • Disclaimer says:
    @countenance
    An issue with Steve's back of the envelope methodology is that, among black men, the chances of getting murdered are not totally equal with age. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 70-year old. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 1-year old. So, doing the 99.694% to the power of N is better if you restrict N to the highest testosterone number of years.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @James Speaks, @Ben Kurtz, @vhrm

    If we assume that blacks born in St. Louis stay in St. Louis until their deaths, every single black male born rises through the age cohorts year by year – thus the 16 year old of today was aged 0 sixteen years ago, Likewise, today’s 40 year old black St. Louis resident was 24 years old 16 years ago. Assuming a constant, fixed birthrate, equal numbers enter and exit each year group annually. Thus the differential death rates affecting each age cohort are accounted for.

  78. Anonymous[408] • Disclaimer says:

    If we consider those severely disabled by gunshot wounds – those who would have died a few decades ago with the medicine then available -, the paraplegics, the quadraplegics, the colostomy patients, the brain destroyed etc etc, in truth fates worse than death – then the picture is much bleaker than even Steve painted.

  79. If you don’t go in the water, your chance of being a victim of shark attack is zero.

  80. Off topic, reading through some old newspapers in the Library of Congress’s archive, I came upon a notable legal case in 19th-century Mississippi. A negro named Bowman conspired for a consideration of $4 with an adulterous woman’s boyfriend to kill her husband. The murder was successfully hidden for over a year — though widely suspected due to the woman’s well-known infidelity — before Bowman confessed under questioning, and lead authorities to the body, whose teeth and clothing identified him.

    Bowman was tried and convicted, but the verdict was overturned on appeal because in the jury room, while deliberations took place, had been a bottle of whisky “for inspiration, consolation and strength.” A new trial in a different city was ordered, but when the story went to press on July 3, 1841 in The Mississippi Creole, the outcome of that trial was still undetermined.

    Doesn’t sound like the kind of summary justice we’ve been told that black slaves could expect in the south. The article discusses the murder as an instance of the most despicable treachery, but the proceedings of the case as commonplace, if a little overscrupulous.

    • Replies: @Gamecock
    @David

    'Doesn’t sound like the kind of summary justice we’ve been told that black slaves could expect in the south.'

    Public school education?

    A black slave convicted of murder could expect to be sold off to a distant farm. Slaves were much too valuable to be executed. Slaves quite literally got away with murder.

  81. @Almost Missouri
    @Morton's toes

    From the doctor's comment:


    I have been a physician for 30 years and that experience plays a huge role as well. Having this gigantic number of breakthrough cases just simply does not happen. I continue to see more than half the cases in vaccinated patients and so do many others. UNHEARD OF IN VACCINES BEFORE NOW.

    ... It basically means the vaccinated have a much higher amount of viral active particles than the unvaccinated. That would account for the breakthroughs I and my colleagues are seeing being a bit more ill. And it would explain the clustering. THe vaccinated breakthroughs have much higher viral load so they are much more contagious and the higher viral load makes them more symptomatic.

    So we now have a suggestion and strong evidence that the vaccinated population may be spreading much more virus than the unvaccinated. I would say that is a critical public health issue and must be further researched immediately.

    ... The writers make the point that the breakthrough rate is extremely divergent from the expected rate. The difference is this paper documents what is happening in REAL LIFE. So much of what we are hearing on our media about vaccine efficacy is research being done in vitro. It is presented as gospel truth. I just want to scream.
     
    "Gigantic number" of breakthrough cases may be unheard of in human diseases, but it is not unheard of in animal diseases.

    As I keep pointing out, premature, half-assed vaccines have turned a minor nuisance into a genuine life-or-death global pandemic before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

    But who would be stupid enough to take the process of pharmaceutically inducing a lethal global epidemic in poultry and to repeat it in humans?

    Our stupid elites are just the ones.

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Triteleia Laxa, @gcochran

    1. You omit the doctor’s disclaimers and if people care I recommend they read all of his comment and all of the succeeding comments as well.

    2. If you think stupid elites made a stupid mistake here you may be mistaken. The clusterfux here may be going 97% according to their cunning plan.

    The frightening possibility is that this is no Deep State attack upon China but it is a James-Bond-Villain attack upon the entire global population. All of us. If you can eliminate this possibility you are in possession of very accurate and highly classified state intelligence.

    • Agree: Gamecock
  82. @countenance
    An issue with Steve's back of the envelope methodology is that, among black men, the chances of getting murdered are not totally equal with age. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 70-year old. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 1-year old. So, doing the 99.694% to the power of N is better if you restrict N to the highest testosterone number of years.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @James Speaks, @Ben Kurtz, @vhrm

    Here, I hep you wif yur maf:

    Even though Y-negroes in the yoofful vigor stage of life experience the highest murder rate as well as the highest impulse to murder, the 99.694% figure is for all negroes of all ages. Iffn yu want 2 do the maf for young, negro, virile, beautiful male babies wut carry guns, youse gots to use the death rate for negroes in that age brakket.

  83. Don’t look at murders – look at “attempted murders” – look at the shootings. That is a measure you also want to examine. What are your chances of someone *seriously* trying to kill you in St.Louis. I believe that is a truer reflection of the state of St.Louis. What is the shooting rate? If not for our medicine, that murder rate would be much closer to the shooting rate and so also presents a better historical comparison.

  84. @jb
    Everyone living in a high murder area changes their behavior to try to avoid being murdered. The percentage of the population actually murdered may be small, but the percentage adversely affected by a high murder rate is 100%.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Reg Cæsar

    Everyone living in a high murder area changes their behavior to try to avoid being murdered. The percentage of the population actually murdered may be small, but the percentage adversely affected by a high murder rate is 100%.

    The chillin’ effect.

  85. @Russ
    Not to fret. St. Louis mayor Tishuara O. Jones is imposing an indoor mask mandate Monday morning. It should be as effective at curbing black-on-black violence as it is at curbing COVID in that community.

    Replies: @Bill Jones

    Here’s everything you need to know about Masks v Covid.

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/47-studies-confirm-inefectiveness-of-masks-for-covid-and-32-more-confirm-their-negative-health-effects

    tldr
    They don’t help.
    They are bad for you.

    • Replies: @Gamecock
    @Bill Jones

    Something else you should know about Masks v Covid.

    All the experts say wearing 3 masks is better than 1.

    Think about that: 1 is inadequate, according to the experts.

  86. @Steve Sailer
    @Anonymous

    True, but that says that the black male homicide victimization rate from, say, 13 to 39, must be so high that it all averages out to what I said in the end.

    Being murdered, by the way, is one of the few problems in statistical reasoning where the chance of it happening to you more than once, which usually complicates matters, is irrelevant.

    Replies: @res, @Bill Jones

    Being murdered, by the way, is one of the few problems in statistical reasoning where the chance of it happening to you more than once, which usually complicates matters, is irrelevant.

    But it happened to the Sainted Floyd.
    He was murdered once premeditatedly. He was then murdered once just on a whim with no premeditation, and then just to make sure, he was man-slaughtered.

  87. @Almost Missouri
    @Morton's toes

    From the doctor's comment:


    I have been a physician for 30 years and that experience plays a huge role as well. Having this gigantic number of breakthrough cases just simply does not happen. I continue to see more than half the cases in vaccinated patients and so do many others. UNHEARD OF IN VACCINES BEFORE NOW.

    ... It basically means the vaccinated have a much higher amount of viral active particles than the unvaccinated. That would account for the breakthroughs I and my colleagues are seeing being a bit more ill. And it would explain the clustering. THe vaccinated breakthroughs have much higher viral load so they are much more contagious and the higher viral load makes them more symptomatic.

    So we now have a suggestion and strong evidence that the vaccinated population may be spreading much more virus than the unvaccinated. I would say that is a critical public health issue and must be further researched immediately.

    ... The writers make the point that the breakthrough rate is extremely divergent from the expected rate. The difference is this paper documents what is happening in REAL LIFE. So much of what we are hearing on our media about vaccine efficacy is research being done in vitro. It is presented as gospel truth. I just want to scream.
     
    "Gigantic number" of breakthrough cases may be unheard of in human diseases, but it is not unheard of in animal diseases.

    As I keep pointing out, premature, half-assed vaccines have turned a minor nuisance into a genuine life-or-death global pandemic before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

    But who would be stupid enough to take the process of pharmaceutically inducing a lethal global epidemic in poultry and to repeat it in humans?

    Our stupid elites are just the ones.

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Triteleia Laxa, @gcochran

    This is probably just the Delta variant. The UK case numbers look like they have peaked and are on their way back down.

  88. @countenance
    An issue with Steve's back of the envelope methodology is that, among black men, the chances of getting murdered are not totally equal with age. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 70-year old. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 1-year old. So, doing the 99.694% to the power of N is better if you restrict N to the highest testosterone number of years.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @James Speaks, @Ben Kurtz, @vhrm

    The better way to construct this model is to assign a different murder survivorship percentage (i.e. odds a person WON’T be murdered in a given year) to each year of age based on current demographic crime data and then multiply those figures together seriatim for, say, 75 years of life. Kind of like how TFR is calculated for a population for any given year.

    You might simplify this slightly by using the same annual survivorship percentage for each year in a certain age range — making up numbers for the sake of an example, you might say that until age 16 the annual murder survivorship is 99.99%, 17-36 it is 99.00%, 37-56 it is 99.75% and 57-75 it is 99.99%. Then your model would look like [lifetime not getting murdered odds] = [(0.9999)^16] * [(0.9900)^20] * [(0.9975)^20] * [(0.9999)^19] = 77.5%

    Anyway, the 99.694% per year figure is a lifetime average and the annual murder odds will be much worse during the prime murderin’ ages (basically, the 20s) and much less oppressive during the other years.

    I previously linked some data out of Chicago which highlights just how much murder odds depend on age. As we’d both imagine, age matters a whole lot.

    • Replies: @res
    @Ben Kurtz

    Thanks. Worth noting that the high risk years being so early will have a major effect on QALYs lost which would not be seen in a model using the overall average.

  89. The analogy here is the way the “odds ratio” operates in medicine. Say there is a disease that has a minuscule chance of getting you. But some special risk factor exists for you. Like maybe a first-degree relative has the disease. So now your odds ratio increases by a factor of three. But three times a minuscule number is still a minuscule number. Your absolute risk is still tiny.

    But wait. It scares the heck out of you that you are at “special risk.” It’s that old “anticipatory anxiety” problem. Psychologists and neuroscientists have called the human brain “an anticipation machine.”

  90. @JimDandy
    @Morton's toes

    So, in other words, the vaccinated are a bunch of Typhoid Marys, spreading it to the unvaccinated, creating the argument that the unvaccinated need to get vaccinated to protected themselves from the vaccinated.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @J.Ross

    It was retarded to ever attempt a vaccine against a rapidly-mutating virus, especially given that we had warehouses full of nearly risk-free and cost-free effective drugs. It was criminal to cut corners and stupid to do so on a project which could never work. Delta isn’t new, it was already out there, and the vaccine causes selection for an existing variant not protected against by the vaccine. New vaccines propounded in the same dumb way will similarly cause selection for whatever they can’t do anything about. And each time that happens, urinalists will run around screaming. Meanwhile medicine, inc has totally gutted whatever credibility they had left with cheap obvious public relations campaigns. Might as well be a tiktok dance.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    @J.Ross

    I agree, but the leaky-virus-Marek's-disease scenario--coupled with the strong possibility that this is essentially a man-made virus--makes me nervous. And pissed off. Could the mania to give a rushed experimental vaccine to as many people as possible result in a scenario where everyone will have to get multiple shots a year to avoid dying from a leaky-vaxx-generated mutation with a 100% kill rate?

    , @Bill Jones
    @J.Ross

    If you haven't realized yet that the whole point of the Wu Flu was to have the vaccine, you haven't been paying attention.

  91. @Desiderius
    https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1419163825362849793?s=20

    How’s their hate working for them? You should be aware of it since they have the power to do awful things with it and that puts you in danger. That suggests that we’d do well to find more productive things than mere hatred.

    We don’t have the strength for that luxury. Hillsong itself isn’t incidental to that weakness.

    Replies: @Desiderius

  92. @countenance
    An issue with Steve's back of the envelope methodology is that, among black men, the chances of getting murdered are not totally equal with age. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 70-year old. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 1-year old. So, doing the 99.694% to the power of N is better if you restrict N to the highest testosterone number of years.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @James Speaks, @Ben Kurtz, @vhrm

    An issue with Steve’s back of the envelope methodology is that, among black men, the chances of getting murdered are not totally equal with age. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 70-year old. A 20-year old is more likely to be murdered than a 1-year old. So, doing the 99.694% to the power of N is better if you restrict N to the highest testosterone number of years.

    Restricting all the killing to a 30 year period (to approximate ages 15 – 45) yields a 79.4% survival rate. Even going to a 1 year window it’s 77.05%. So it stays within a very narrow range.

    Example for the 30 year period:
    Taking the 306 / 100k rate Steve has and assuming all of that is concentrated to 30 years of the 75 year lifespan means it’s really 306 killings per / 40k people (30 / 75 = 0.4 * 100k = 40k people) .

    That’s 99.235% not-murdered rate per year (vs steve’s 99.694%).

    .99235 ^ 30 = 0.794= 79.4% chance of surviving one’s murder years.

    Wolfram Alpha calculation where x is the size of the “killing window”:

    real plot y=(1- (306 / (100000 * (x/ 75) ))) ^ x from x=1 to 75

    https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=real+plot+y%3D%281-+%28306+%2F+%28100000+*+%28x%2F+75%29+%29%29%29+%5E+x+++from+x%3D1+to+75

  93. @Steve Sailer
    @jb

    In 1939, my mother took the trolley downtown to the picture show about 4 nights per week. That's a better life than sitting at home watching TV because it's dangerous to go out. (Of course, the movies were better in 1939.)

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    In 1939, my mother took the trolley downtown to the picture show about 4 nights per week.

    This wasn’t in LA, was it? Wasn’t the system dismantled by then?

    • Replies: @res
    @Reg Cæsar

    Decline started after a sale in late 1944.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Railway#Decline

  94. @Charon
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Yep. The so-called "prestige media" is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)


    https://i.ibb.co/SwR2rck/Capture-2021-07-25-05-30-22-2.png

    Replies: @Ralph L, @Joe Stalin, @Paperback Writer, @prosa123, @J.Ross, @Sick 'n Tired, @Truth

    I don’t understand why you go to the trouble of adding a screenshot but not the link.

    The man had the cheek to speak to the “youths” about fireworks.

    https://abc7ny.com/new-york-city-queens-attack-middle-village/10908165/

    https://www.amny.com/new-york/queens/brutes-in-queens-beat-up-man-who-complained-about-fireworks/

    The “youths” in the latter link look white. That’s why they felt the freedom to refer to the kids as “brutes.”

  95. @Ralph L
    @Charon

    How like the Daily Mail to include the name and age of the dog. They're not always accurate, but they love those details.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz

    Hence my suggestion that one try to get oneself sent to Camp Fed in Danbury, if the Army doesn’t in pan out.

  96. @J.Ross
    @JimDandy

    It was retarded to ever attempt a vaccine against a rapidly-mutating virus, especially given that we had warehouses full of nearly risk-free and cost-free effective drugs. It was criminal to cut corners and stupid to do so on a project which could never work. Delta isn't new, it was already out there, and the vaccine causes selection for an existing variant not protected against by the vaccine. New vaccines propounded in the same dumb way will similarly cause selection for whatever they can't do anything about. And each time that happens, urinalists will run around screaming. Meanwhile medicine, inc has totally gutted whatever credibility they had left with cheap obvious public relations campaigns. Might as well be a tiktok dance.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Bill Jones

    I agree, but the leaky-virus-Marek’s-disease scenario–coupled with the strong possibility that this is essentially a man-made virus–makes me nervous. And pissed off. Could the mania to give a rushed experimental vaccine to as many people as possible result in a scenario where everyone will have to get multiple shots a year to avoid dying from a leaky-vaxx-generated mutation with a 100% kill rate?

  97. anon[380] • Disclaimer says:

    The former Chicago gang database had a scoring system based on age, gang membership, criminal record, and a few other things. But not race.

    There was a numerical score, and members were ranked.

    A considerable percentage of homicides were at the top of the list. To the extent that odds of being murdered in a year were fractional, like in horse racing. Instead of a rate per 100,000.

    So the odds are extremely high for a small number of people.

    They were forced to get rid of the system, because the anti-police faction argued that the high scorers were all black and that they became the “usual suspects” and the list was causing causing the outcomes it successfully predicted.

    I used to keep up with this, but have lost interest.

    Back in the day, there used to be interviewed mentions where high scorers were warned about their likely fate, offered jobs, etc. Which mostly weren’t taken advantage of.

    • Thanks: vhrm, J.Ross
    • Replies: @vhrm
    @anon

    Chicago's db (as one can imagine) was a total mess and also badly managed (like TSA no-fly lists, for example).

    IDK what the state of the art is for investigative agencies but it's obvious that the majority of killers and killings are people involved in a criminal lifestyle and some sort of intelligence and analytics would be key to taking them down.

    Speaking of population wide or even citywide death / murder rates is therefore highly misleading. To a large degree it's a case of using a bad metric because it's the only one that can be computed issue and it's better than nothing.

    However, an effect is that over-generalizes the problem and obscures very relevant heterogeneity. For some that's an unfortunate bug. For others it's a feature that helps in service of ideological or political goals.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz

  98. @res
    @for-the-record

    Here is a discussion of that chart along with links to the data.

    https://trialsitenews.com/covid-19-case-data-in-israel-a-troubling-trend/

    Replies: @vhrm

    A thing i’ve only recently become aware of is a (claimed) difference between “mucosal immunity” and “systemic immunity”. The vaccines confer the later, but little of the former.

    People are most infectious during the early stages of infection, when the virus is largely restricted to the nasopharyngeal mucosa. Indeed, it’s possible for people to be highly infectious without the virus spreading to other parts of the body or causing severe illness.

    Importantly, the immune system responds differently to mucosal and systemic infections. A systemic immune response, which works across large swathes of the body, is associated with creating one type of antibody, IgG. Immunity generated in the mucosa (also called secretory immunity) is associated with creating another, IgA. As a result, immunisations that focus on generating systemic immunity – which is what injected vaccines do – rarely induce mucosal immunity. This likely applies to all the COVID-19 vaccines currently available.

    https://theconversation.com/covid-19-vaccines-are-probably-less-effective-at-preventing-transmission-than-symptoms-heres-why-156611

    i haven’t spent much time on discerning the level of effects and crossover (and don’t know if they’re known), but the situation is more nuanced than “immune” vs “susceptible” and it seems not really fair to say that a “breakthrough case” is indicative of vaccine failure.

    But also it suggests that being vaccinated basically doesn’t make you a significantly lesser threat of contagion (especially when faced with delta which supposedly spews a lot more virus particles (?)); though it just makes you less likely to get seriously sick.

    This, as much as it pains me to say, makes some of Fauci’s, teachers unions’ and friends’ calls to maintain some distancing and other protection protocols even for vaccinated people make sense. Though it’s at odds with how vaccines were originally sold / promised and with people’s general understanding of vaccines.

    And the lack of any nuanced cost-benefit analysis all along makes this a communications nightmare.

    Another article about the different immunities from back in Nov; i don’t grok it all, but sounds like it’s quite a legit distinction.


    Most attention has been given to virus-neutralizing antibodies, especially circulating antibodies (13–15). However, these can only be effective in the prevention of infection or disease if they reach the mucosal surfaces where the virus is present, and it should be noted that circulating IgA, even in polymeric form, is not effectively transported into secretions (16).

    Almost all efforts at vaccine development against COVID-19 focus on systemic injection, which predominantly induces circulatory IgG antibodies and, potentially, cytotoxic T cells (18). These routes are poorly effective at generating mucosal immune responses, which can only be induced by mucosal routes of immunization, including through the NALT in the URT. Mucosal immune responses are partly compartmentalized, as the distribution of the responses depends on the actual route of induction (7, 19).

    In summary, based on the route whereby SARS-CoV-2 infection is acquired and the independence of mucosal and systemic responses, there must be a mucosal immune dimension to COVID-19. Whether it makes a significant contribution to the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection, or can be exploited to good effect for diagnostic purposes or for therapy and prophylaxis, can only be determined by carrying out appropriate investigations.
    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337/full

    • Replies: @Morton's toes
    @vhrm

    It might be interesting to see the impact of wearing a mask on the performance of the respiratory mucous immune system. Seems like there is no way it could be helpful.

    Replies: @vhrm

  99. iSteve fave Bob Hope connection:

    OP still maximally annoying. Most reluctant Ohioan ever? Get over yourself big guy.

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Desiderius

    One of the most beautiful buildings in Detroit (in fact, it's often called the most beautiful building) is the Guardian, which is a great Deco thing with glowing mosaics of a great big Guardian who is also clearly a classic stereotypical feathered and beaded and deerskinned Indian. First thing every Detroiter thought of when they heard about this.

  100. @anon
    The former Chicago gang database had a scoring system based on age, gang membership, criminal record, and a few other things. But not race.

    There was a numerical score, and members were ranked.

    A considerable percentage of homicides were at the top of the list. To the extent that odds of being murdered in a year were fractional, like in horse racing. Instead of a rate per 100,000.

    So the odds are extremely high for a small number of people.

    They were forced to get rid of the system, because the anti-police faction argued that the high scorers were all black and that they became the "usual suspects" and the list was causing causing the outcomes it successfully predicted.

    I used to keep up with this, but have lost interest.

    Back in the day, there used to be interviewed mentions where high scorers were warned about their likely fate, offered jobs, etc. Which mostly weren't taken advantage of.

    Replies: @vhrm

    Chicago’s db (as one can imagine) was a total mess and also badly managed (like TSA no-fly lists, for example).

    IDK what the state of the art is for investigative agencies but it’s obvious that the majority of killers and killings are people involved in a criminal lifestyle and some sort of intelligence and analytics would be key to taking them down.

    Speaking of population wide or even citywide death / murder rates is therefore highly misleading. To a large degree it’s a case of using a bad metric because it’s the only one that can be computed issue and it’s better than nothing.

    However, an effect is that over-generalizes the problem and obscures very relevant heterogeneity. For some that’s an unfortunate bug. For others it’s a feature that helps in service of ideological or political goals.

    • Replies: @Ben Kurtz
    @vhrm

    Funny the high degree of correlation between basic demographic factors (age, sex, race) and odds of being involved in the highly risky "gang lifestyle."

    Coincidence, right? Or is that Evil Whitey's Racist Eye Lasers of Systemic Racism at work?

  101. A couple days ago there was a triple home-invasion homicide in an apartment in a reasonably nice complex less than five miles from me. The victims were a 32-year-old man and his 24-year-old girlfriend, both of whom lived in the apartment, and a 20-year-old woman from Georgia who was visiting them. This younger woman’s baby daughter was present but fine. According to a photo on the local news site this woman looks maybe Hispanic, hard to say; there are no photos of the couple who rented the apartment but they have white-sounding names (Castano and Schick).

    Fortunately, I don’t think there’s much risk to the community. While the police don’t yet have any suspects they believe it was a targeted attack. The man had gotten out of prison in 2019 after serving three years for his involvement in a heroin and fentanyl ring, which had led to 17 fatal overdoses. He was an assistant to the ringleader and was responsible for renting cars that the dealers used to make deliveries. Neighbors in the apartment complex had noted that many people often came and went from the apartment and there had been noise complaints.

  102. @Anon
    US military hostile fatality rate in Operation Iraqi Freedom: 335 per 100,000

    US military hostile fatality rate in Vietnam War: 1818 per 100,000


    Source: https://academic.oup.com/milmed/article-pdf/175/4/220/21584815/milmed-d-09-00130.pdf

    Replies: @edkpyros, @prosa123

    Officers in the Soviet military with the rank of major or above had a 58% death rate during the 1930’s. Not because of war, but because Stalin ordered them executed.

  103. @Charon
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Yep. The so-called "prestige media" is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)


    https://i.ibb.co/SwR2rck/Capture-2021-07-25-05-30-22-2.png

    Replies: @Ralph L, @Joe Stalin, @Paperback Writer, @prosa123, @J.Ross, @Sick 'n Tired, @Truth

    Juniper Valley Park is not in a bad area by any stretch of the imagination. Middle Village is quite nice and very safe.
    Fun fact: St. John’s Cemetery, just a few blocks from the park, is the burial spot for most of the big-time Mafia chiefs.

  104. @vhrm
    @anon

    Chicago's db (as one can imagine) was a total mess and also badly managed (like TSA no-fly lists, for example).

    IDK what the state of the art is for investigative agencies but it's obvious that the majority of killers and killings are people involved in a criminal lifestyle and some sort of intelligence and analytics would be key to taking them down.

    Speaking of population wide or even citywide death / murder rates is therefore highly misleading. To a large degree it's a case of using a bad metric because it's the only one that can be computed issue and it's better than nothing.

    However, an effect is that over-generalizes the problem and obscures very relevant heterogeneity. For some that's an unfortunate bug. For others it's a feature that helps in service of ideological or political goals.

    Replies: @Ben Kurtz

    Funny the high degree of correlation between basic demographic factors (age, sex, race) and odds of being involved in the highly risky “gang lifestyle.”

    Coincidence, right? Or is that Evil Whitey’s Racist Eye Lasers of Systemic Racism at work?

  105. @Charon
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Yep. The so-called "prestige media" is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)


    https://i.ibb.co/SwR2rck/Capture-2021-07-25-05-30-22-2.png

    Replies: @Ralph L, @Joe Stalin, @Paperback Writer, @prosa123, @J.Ross, @Sick 'n Tired, @Truth

    I fail to see the contradiction with Bill deBlasio’s plan, which always was “police and fire and EMS can go to hell.”
    And the Justice Department just let every Democrat governor off the hook for killing elderly nursing home inmates.
    Please Covid become real and kill everyone.

  106. @Desiderius
    iSteve fave Bob Hope connection:

    https://twitter.com/DrewKnightWV/status/1418575287411957763?s=20

    OP still maximally annoying. Most reluctant Ohioan ever? Get over yourself big guy.

    Replies: @J.Ross

    One of the most beautiful buildings in Detroit (in fact, it’s often called the most beautiful building) is the Guardian, which is a great Deco thing with glowing mosaics of a great big Guardian who is also clearly a classic stereotypical feathered and beaded and deerskinned Indian. First thing every Detroiter thought of when they heard about this.

  107. @guest007
    @JimB

    The one in six is only if one lives to 70 years old. The longer one lives, the greater the chance of dying from cancer. The only thing that keeps every of dying from cancer is something else kills one first.

    Also, the colonoscopy is only for colon cancer but is so effective at preventing people from dying from cancer is that the NIH cut back of sponsoring research on colon therapy cancers. If one is to vain to get a coloscopy, then why should the tax payer fund novel therapies for a preventable disease.

    Replies: @JimB

    The longer one lives, the greater the chance of dying from cancer.

    Along with everything else. Cardiovascular disease is the unavoidable main player in elder death since it leads to pathologies of the brain, kidneys, and liver. More very old people die with cancer rather than from it. I have a lot of centenarians in my family and they were all at some point diagnosed with skin, thyroid, or prostate cancer, usually in their 70s or 80s, but none of them died or were even slightly incapacitated by these cancers. In all cases, my elder relatives died when their brains shorted out rather suddenly due to arteriosclerosis.

    • Replies: @guest007
    @JimB

    Thyroid and skin cancers are two of the most survivable cancers in modern medicine. What happens eventually is that women will die of breast cancer and men will die of prostate cancer. it is that the cardiovascular disease kills them first.

    In 2019 the comparison was Heart disease: 659,041 Cancer: 599,601

    Replies: @JimB

  108. @J.Ross
    @JimDandy

    It was retarded to ever attempt a vaccine against a rapidly-mutating virus, especially given that we had warehouses full of nearly risk-free and cost-free effective drugs. It was criminal to cut corners and stupid to do so on a project which could never work. Delta isn't new, it was already out there, and the vaccine causes selection for an existing variant not protected against by the vaccine. New vaccines propounded in the same dumb way will similarly cause selection for whatever they can't do anything about. And each time that happens, urinalists will run around screaming. Meanwhile medicine, inc has totally gutted whatever credibility they had left with cheap obvious public relations campaigns. Might as well be a tiktok dance.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Bill Jones

    If you haven’t realized yet that the whole point of the Wu Flu was to have the vaccine, you haven’t been paying attention.

  109. @Charon
    @Sebastian

    State and local governments are charging user fees for virtually everything now. Seems fair, right? Those who use services should pay for them.

    Only....what are all our tax dollars going for, then? Just to support a do-nothing, self-perpetuating government bureaucracy?

    Then there's the fact that privileged minorities get everything for free anyway, and are excused from user fees.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Abolish_public_education

    User fees for public schools are long overdue. Originally, the free part of public education meant “free men”, i.e. Whites only.

    $15,000/yr per kid sounds about right. Sorry, no sibling discount.

  110. Here we are dealing with probabilities over time, not single events like flipping a coin. A better calculation would be 306/100,000 x 75 = 22,950/100,000, which is 22.95%. It is almost the same. The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.

    Regards. JS

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Jakob Scheffer

    Thanks.

    , @vhrm
    @Jakob Scheffer

    Can you say more why your calculation is better?

    AFAICT it is closer to "the percentage of black men who will die in St. Louis over 75 years" rather than 1 person's chance of dying.

    Hitting the web... supports Steve's approach of treating it as a sequence of events of not dying. (It also agrees w/ my hazy recollection about these things)

    so (1- 306 / 100000) ^75 = .795

    https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/490859/calculating-probabilities-over-longer-period-of-time

    Replies: @Jakob Scheffer, @Jakob Scheffer

    , @James Speaks
    @Jakob Scheffer

    You wrote:


    The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.
     
    However, the probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 100%, and the probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise through violence over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.
    FIFY

    Replies: @Jakob Scheffer

    , @res
    @Jakob Scheffer

    Note that is only valid for small probabilities (how small depends on the exponent). Here is a Wolfram Alpha page which compares your approximation to the actual equation.
    https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1-%281-x%29%5E75+vs.+x*75+for+x+%3D+0+to+0.01

    This case corresponds to x=0.00306 where the approximation is still pretty good, but it is fairly far off by x=0.005.

    , @Truth
    @Jakob Scheffer

    ...Another Fields Medal winner here.

  111. @Charon
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Yep. The so-called "prestige media" is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)


    https://i.ibb.co/SwR2rck/Capture-2021-07-25-05-30-22-2.png

    Replies: @Ralph L, @Joe Stalin, @Paperback Writer, @prosa123, @J.Ross, @Sick 'n Tired, @Truth

    I feel there is going to be another Bernie Goetz incident in NYC very soon. It’s the law of averages.

    • Replies: @Joe Stalin
    @Sick 'n Tired

    They need to declare a one-year Emergency Constitutional Carry in New York State so the people can initiate a legal "Purge" of street thugs without fear of being arrested by the anti-gun police, who are nothing but Cat's Paws for the anti-gun elite. If CCW is good enough for Trump and Sean Hannity, why isn't it good enough for the Manhattan housewife?

  112. @Ghost of Bull Moose
    Maybe the murder rampage will settle enough scores and take out enough dirtbags to serve the same purpose as giving them three hots and a cot. I think this is an under-appreciated aspect of the broken-windows, tough-on-crime recovery after the crack wars that everyone uses as a cope. I'm beyond caring about black-on black crime. What concerns me is the wilding and 'random' attacks on others that went along with the crack wars.

    This is not going to get better. A pack of 'teens' stomped an off duty firefighter in Queens yesterday and the press has to reflexively feign being perplexed at the randomness of it all. They started on Asians, they're moving on to everyone else. This time the press will be working overtime to follow the well worn formula of first denying it is happening and then justifying it when it can't be denied. "How did we fail these poor teens who curb-stomped the privileged (spit) white fire-fighter (spit)?"

    Replies: @Charon, @Jay Fink

    That assumes the killer and his victim are both dirtbags in equal proportions. I think the murderer is much worse, especially if he killed someone who never committed homicide.

  113. @Jakob Scheffer
    Here we are dealing with probabilities over time, not single events like flipping a coin. A better calculation would be 306/100,000 x 75 = 22,950/100,000, which is 22.95%. It is almost the same. The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.

    Regards. JS

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @vhrm, @James Speaks, @res, @Truth

    Thanks.

  114. @edkpyros
    @Anonymous

    Sure, but the homicide rate is for all ages, so that simply means that the odds for those in the 18-34 age bracket are far, far higher than the average for all black males.

    Replies: @Abolish_public_education

    Homicide statistics are not my field.

    I suspect that the prime, killing age range, i.e. when a BMs chance of getting murdered is significantly higher than in the out years, is actually within years 17-45.

    P(living to age 17) must be ~1, so the calculation should simplify to:

    (Odds of not getting murdered during a prime year)^29.

  115. @David
    Off topic, reading through some old newspapers in the Library of Congress's archive, I came upon a notable legal case in 19th-century Mississippi. A negro named Bowman conspired for a consideration of $4 with an adulterous woman's boyfriend to kill her husband. The murder was successfully hidden for over a year -- though widely suspected due to the woman's well-known infidelity -- before Bowman confessed under questioning, and lead authorities to the body, whose teeth and clothing identified him.

    Bowman was tried and convicted, but the verdict was overturned on appeal because in the jury room, while deliberations took place, had been a bottle of whisky "for inspiration, consolation and strength." A new trial in a different city was ordered, but when the story went to press on July 3, 1841 in The Mississippi Creole, the outcome of that trial was still undetermined.

    Doesn't sound like the kind of summary justice we've been told that black slaves could expect in the south. The article discusses the murder as an instance of the most despicable treachery, but the proceedings of the case as commonplace, if a little overscrupulous.

    Replies: @Gamecock

    ‘Doesn’t sound like the kind of summary justice we’ve been told that black slaves could expect in the south.’

    Public school education?

    A black slave convicted of murder could expect to be sold off to a distant farm. Slaves were much too valuable to be executed. Slaves quite literally got away with murder.

  116. @Bill Jones
    @Russ

    Here's everything you need to know about Masks v Covid.

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/47-studies-confirm-inefectiveness-of-masks-for-covid-and-32-more-confirm-their-negative-health-effects

    tldr
    They don't help.
    They are bad for you.

    Replies: @Gamecock

    Something else you should know about Masks v Covid.

    All the experts say wearing 3 masks is better than 1.

    Think about that: 1 is inadequate, according to the experts.

  117. @Jakob Scheffer
    Here we are dealing with probabilities over time, not single events like flipping a coin. A better calculation would be 306/100,000 x 75 = 22,950/100,000, which is 22.95%. It is almost the same. The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.

    Regards. JS

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @vhrm, @James Speaks, @res, @Truth

    Can you say more why your calculation is better?

    AFAICT it is closer to “the percentage of black men who will die in St. Louis over 75 years” rather than 1 person’s chance of dying.

    Hitting the web… supports Steve’s approach of treating it as a sequence of events of not dying. (It also agrees w/ my hazy recollection about these things)

    so (1- 306 / 100000) ^75 = .795

    https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/490859/calculating-probabilities-over-longer-period-of-time

    • Replies: @Jakob Scheffer
    @vhrm

    Time is continuous. A year is not an event. Neither is a day, a week, a month or an hour. The shorter the period you choose, the higher the probability that it will occur in a longer period if we regard periods as single events. It is like compounding interest. If you compound interest every day, you will have more interest at the end of the year than if you compound it every week. If you compound it every every week, you will have more interest at the end of the year than if you compound it every month.

    You may well be right, but 75 days or 75 years are not the same as 75 throws of a die.

    Replies: @res

    , @Jakob Scheffer
    @vhrm

    Suppose that for the next 5 days, the probability of rainfall is 1/5 for each day. If we treat days as single events, then the probability that there will be rain in the next 5 days is 1 - 4/5^5 = 1 - 1024/3125 = 2101/3125 = 67.23%.

    If we use my method, then the probability of rainfall for the next days is 5 x 1/5 = 1. Well, it isn't 1, so my method was wrong, but my point that the choice of time periods is somewhat arbitrary remains valid.

    Replies: @gandydancer, @gandydancer, @gandydancer

  118. @Sick 'n Tired
    @Charon

    I feel there is going to be another Bernie Goetz incident in NYC very soon. It's the law of averages.

    Replies: @Joe Stalin

    They need to declare a one-year Emergency Constitutional Carry in New York State so the people can initiate a legal “Purge” of street thugs without fear of being arrested by the anti-gun police, who are nothing but Cat’s Paws for the anti-gun elite. If CCW is good enough for Trump and Sean Hannity, why isn’t it good enough for the Manhattan housewife?

  119. (If you can think of a better way to do this calculation, let me know in the comments.)

    The murder victims are not randomly distributed by age. They are mostly young. So the quoted survival rate of 99.694 is not the correct number. For example, if the annual survival rate during the first 10 year period (say 15-24) is 99.7%, and the annual rate for the next 50 years is 99.9%, the overall survival for 50 years is 93.2% (not 80%), which, averaged over 50 years is an annual rate of 99.86%, not 99.7.

    However, the real terror of these high homicide rates applies only to humans with our Bayesian brains. A young black St Louis robot would go about its business unconcerned.

  120. @Jakob Scheffer
    Here we are dealing with probabilities over time, not single events like flipping a coin. A better calculation would be 306/100,000 x 75 = 22,950/100,000, which is 22.95%. It is almost the same. The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.

    Regards. JS

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @vhrm, @James Speaks, @res, @Truth

    You wrote:

    The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.

    However, the probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 100%, and the probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise through violence over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.
    FIFY

    • Replies: @Jakob Scheffer
    @James Speaks

    Thanks.

  121. @vhrm
    @res

    A thing i've only recently become aware of is a (claimed) difference between "mucosal immunity" and "systemic immunity". The vaccines confer the later, but little of the former.


    People are most infectious during the early stages of infection, when the virus is largely restricted to the nasopharyngeal mucosa. Indeed, it’s possible for people to be highly infectious without the virus spreading to other parts of the body or causing severe illness.

    Importantly, the immune system responds differently to mucosal and systemic infections. A systemic immune response, which works across large swathes of the body, is associated with creating one type of antibody, IgG. Immunity generated in the mucosa (also called secretory immunity) is associated with creating another, IgA. As a result, immunisations that focus on generating systemic immunity – which is what injected vaccines do – rarely induce mucosal immunity. This likely applies to all the COVID-19 vaccines currently available.

    https://theconversation.com/covid-19-vaccines-are-probably-less-effective-at-preventing-transmission-than-symptoms-heres-why-156611
     

    i haven't spent much time on discerning the level of effects and crossover (and don't know if they're known), but the situation is more nuanced than "immune" vs "susceptible" and it seems not really fair to say that a "breakthrough case" is indicative of vaccine failure.

    But also it suggests that being vaccinated basically doesn't make you a significantly lesser threat of contagion (especially when faced with delta which supposedly spews a lot more virus particles (?)); though it just makes you less likely to get seriously sick.

    This, as much as it pains me to say, makes some of Fauci's, teachers unions' and friends' calls to maintain some distancing and other protection protocols even for vaccinated people make sense. Though it's at odds with how vaccines were originally sold / promised and with people's general understanding of vaccines.

    And the lack of any nuanced cost-benefit analysis all along makes this a communications nightmare.

    Another article about the different immunities from back in Nov; i don't grok it all, but sounds like it's quite a legit distinction.

    ...
    Most attention has been given to virus-neutralizing antibodies, especially circulating antibodies (13–15). However, these can only be effective in the prevention of infection or disease if they reach the mucosal surfaces where the virus is present, and it should be noted that circulating IgA, even in polymeric form, is not effectively transported into secretions (16).
    ...
    Almost all efforts at vaccine development against COVID-19 focus on systemic injection, which predominantly induces circulatory IgG antibodies and, potentially, cytotoxic T cells (18). These routes are poorly effective at generating mucosal immune responses, which can only be induced by mucosal routes of immunization, including through the NALT in the URT. Mucosal immune responses are partly compartmentalized, as the distribution of the responses depends on the actual route of induction (7, 19).
    ...
    In summary, based on the route whereby SARS-CoV-2 infection is acquired and the independence of mucosal and systemic responses, there must be a mucosal immune dimension to COVID-19. Whether it makes a significant contribution to the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection, or can be exploited to good effect for diagnostic purposes or for therapy and prophylaxis, can only be determined by carrying out appropriate investigations.
    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337/full

     

    Replies: @Morton's toes

    It might be interesting to see the impact of wearing a mask on the performance of the respiratory mucous immune system. Seems like there is no way it could be helpful.

    • Replies: @vhrm
    @Morton's toes

    Well, this distinction doesn't make impact the efficacy of masks (good or bad) either way, i think, but it sounds like, in order to actually stop the spread of the virus we'd need some sort of inhaled vaccine. Like nasal spray or nebulizer or something.

    Although the way it's looking now everyone will eventually just get their mucosal immunity the old fashioned way: by getting COVID.

    In india 79% of urban people have had Covid in some form.


    67 percent (two-thirds) of 18+ people in the whole of India have been exposed to Sars Cov-2 (Covid-19), according to the survey.
    ...
    The seropositivity is as high as 79 percent in 18+ adults in urban India and 78 percent in youngsters below 18 in urban India.
    https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/third-wave-wont-be-as-deadly-79-adults-exposed-to-covid-in-urban-india-who-aiims-sero-survey-9714201.htm
     
    Eh, who the heck knows. All the predictions, optimistic, pessimistic and middle of the road about the spread of this virus have been wrong. There was no apparent curve flattening, we didn't all get it, but it didn't go away, neither lockdowns nor openings seemed to make much difference.
    Yet both the US and Europe had 5 distinct waves, Brazil 3, India 2, South Africa 3

    As far as spread goes... looks like Covid does whatever it wants though the vaccine is going to keep down the hospitalizations and dying.


    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right&extra=Brazil%2CEuropean%20Union%2CIndia%2CSouth%20Africa#countries-normalized

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Polistra, @Morton's toes

  122. @vhrm
    @Jakob Scheffer

    Can you say more why your calculation is better?

    AFAICT it is closer to "the percentage of black men who will die in St. Louis over 75 years" rather than 1 person's chance of dying.

    Hitting the web... supports Steve's approach of treating it as a sequence of events of not dying. (It also agrees w/ my hazy recollection about these things)

    so (1- 306 / 100000) ^75 = .795

    https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/490859/calculating-probabilities-over-longer-period-of-time

    Replies: @Jakob Scheffer, @Jakob Scheffer

    Time is continuous. A year is not an event. Neither is a day, a week, a month or an hour. The shorter the period you choose, the higher the probability that it will occur in a longer period if we regard periods as single events. It is like compounding interest. If you compound interest every day, you will have more interest at the end of the year than if you compound it every week. If you compound it every every week, you will have more interest at the end of the year than if you compound it every month.

    You may well be right, but 75 days or 75 years are not the same as 75 throws of a die.

    • Replies: @res
    @Jakob Scheffer

    Compound interest is a good analogy. Some relevant observations.

    1. The error introduced by using longer intervals increases with the interest (or murder) rate and length of time.

    2. Continuous compounding approaches a limit which could be considered the true result. This page has some discussion, but notice how they needed a high interest rate (15%) to emphasize the different incomes for different compounding periods within one year.
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/continuouscompounding.asp


    You may well be right, but 75 days or 75 years are not the same as 75 throws of a die.
     
    Sure. But is that approximation good enough? It IS better than the approximation you offered in comment 110. Though yours has the benefit of being simpler to calculate and is fairly close for the values involved.
  123. @Charon
    @EliteCommInc.


    There are two many variable involved that indicate murder is not constant, it is not fixed and has more to do with the circumstance than mere kin color.
     
    I'll put this as kindly as I can. No one even implied that murder is a constant, nor did anyone say it has only one cause.

    The stats, however, are vastly more coherent than your "reasoning" appears to be, not to mention your series of fanciful assertions. To be taken seriously, you're going to have to construct a logical argument of some kind.

    Incidentally, "we" are not the people targeting blacks, unless perhaps you yourself are black, and by "we" you mean yourself and your cohorts.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @danand

    He’s black.

    • Thanks: Charon
  124. @vhrm
    @Jakob Scheffer

    Can you say more why your calculation is better?

    AFAICT it is closer to "the percentage of black men who will die in St. Louis over 75 years" rather than 1 person's chance of dying.

    Hitting the web... supports Steve's approach of treating it as a sequence of events of not dying. (It also agrees w/ my hazy recollection about these things)

    so (1- 306 / 100000) ^75 = .795

    https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/490859/calculating-probabilities-over-longer-period-of-time

    Replies: @Jakob Scheffer, @Jakob Scheffer

    Suppose that for the next 5 days, the probability of rainfall is 1/5 for each day. If we treat days as single events, then the probability that there will be rain in the next 5 days is 1 – 4/5^5 = 1 – 1024/3125 = 2101/3125 = 67.23%.

    If we use my method, then the probability of rainfall for the next days is 5 x 1/5 = 1. Well, it isn’t 1, so my method was wrong, but my point that the choice of time periods is somewhat arbitrary remains valid.

    • Replies: @gandydancer
    @Jakob Scheffer

    The reason you can't just add the probabilities of rainfall is that you can have 0,1,2,3,4 or 5 days with rainfall. It's the expected number of days of rainfall that equals one, not the probability of rainfall that equals one.

    You can't, of course, have more than one death in 75 years, which is why Steve chose to calculate the chance of NO death in 75 years IF you live 75 years w/o death from other causes.

    You are correct to see that his choice of collapsing a continual process into 75 "events" is problematic, but let me approach that from a different direction:

    Again making the simplifying assumption that the only source of death is murder, first note that if you die in the first year then your chance of dying in the subsequent 74 years is zero.

    Now, suppose you start with 1000 individuals and the chance of being murdered is uniform at 1%/yr.

    In analogy with annual compounding 10 individuals are expected to die the first year, leaving 990.

    A CLOSER APPROXIMATION to reality can be achieved by using six-month intervals. Then, for the second six months you expect to have only 995 individuals alive and the expected number of deaths will be 995/1000*5, a slightly smaller number than 5 and the expected number alive at the end of the first year will be slightly more than 990.

    This process can be repeated ad infinitem and you will progress asymptotically towards a limit that analogizes to what is called continuous compounding.

    I don't remember the math, but for reasonable numbers it just doesn't make much of a difference when you calculate interest, and shouldn't make much difference here. I expect that the non-uniformity of murder rates noted by many in this thread will have larger effects than the difference between annual compounding and continuous.

    , @gandydancer
    @Jakob Scheffer

    ...it further occurs to me that there is a close analogy, and that if you look into it you will find the correct mathematics: Radioactive decay. What fraction of a sample will be left after 75 years if you know the rate of decay? You might have to translate %/yr into half-life, but that should be straightforward.

    , @gandydancer
    @Jakob Scheffer

    ...and I further want to emphasize that this is a math puzzle that is basically useless for answering the question that Steve really wants or ought to want answered: If born in a neighborhood with a particular (and fixed) murder rate, what is the probability that you will be murdered?

    The radioactive decay model is obviously wrong: It says that everyone is eventually murdered.

    The first fatal flaw is ignoring that other forms of death will intervene.

    And, as many have pointed out, YOUR chance-of-murder rate will not be fixed, varying with age, your criminality, risk behavior, etc.

  125. @Ben Kurtz
    @countenance

    The better way to construct this model is to assign a different murder survivorship percentage (i.e. odds a person WON'T be murdered in a given year) to each year of age based on current demographic crime data and then multiply those figures together seriatim for, say, 75 years of life. Kind of like how TFR is calculated for a population for any given year.

    You might simplify this slightly by using the same annual survivorship percentage for each year in a certain age range -- making up numbers for the sake of an example, you might say that until age 16 the annual murder survivorship is 99.99%, 17-36 it is 99.00%, 37-56 it is 99.75% and 57-75 it is 99.99%. Then your model would look like [lifetime not getting murdered odds] = [(0.9999)^16] * [(0.9900)^20] * [(0.9975)^20] * [(0.9999)^19] = 77.5%

    Anyway, the 99.694% per year figure is a lifetime average and the annual murder odds will be much worse during the prime murderin' ages (basically, the 20s) and much less oppressive during the other years.

    I previously linked some data out of Chicago which highlights just how much murder odds depend on age. As we'd both imagine, age matters a whole lot.

    Replies: @res

    Thanks. Worth noting that the high risk years being so early will have a major effect on QALYs lost which would not be seen in a model using the overall average.

  126. @Reg Cæsar
    @Steve Sailer


    In 1939, my mother took the trolley downtown to the picture show about 4 nights per week.
     
    This wasn't in LA, was it? Wasn't the system dismantled by then?

    Replies: @res

    Decline started after a sale in late 1944.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Railway#Decline

  127. res says:
    @Jakob Scheffer
    Here we are dealing with probabilities over time, not single events like flipping a coin. A better calculation would be 306/100,000 x 75 = 22,950/100,000, which is 22.95%. It is almost the same. The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.

    Regards. JS

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @vhrm, @James Speaks, @res, @Truth

    Note that is only valid for small probabilities (how small depends on the exponent). Here is a Wolfram Alpha page which compares your approximation to the actual equation.
    https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1-%281-x%29%5E75+vs.+x*75+for+x+%3D+0+to+0.01

    This case corresponds to x=0.00306 where the approximation is still pretty good, but it is fairly far off by x=0.005.

  128. @Morton's toes
    @vhrm

    It might be interesting to see the impact of wearing a mask on the performance of the respiratory mucous immune system. Seems like there is no way it could be helpful.

    Replies: @vhrm

    Well, this distinction doesn’t make impact the efficacy of masks (good or bad) either way, i think, but it sounds like, in order to actually stop the spread of the virus we’d need some sort of inhaled vaccine. Like nasal spray or nebulizer or something.

    Although the way it’s looking now everyone will eventually just get their mucosal immunity the old fashioned way: by getting COVID.

    In india 79% of urban people have had Covid in some form.

    67 percent (two-thirds) of 18+ people in the whole of India have been exposed to Sars Cov-2 (Covid-19), according to the survey.

    The seropositivity is as high as 79 percent in 18+ adults in urban India and 78 percent in youngsters below 18 in urban India.
    https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/third-wave-wont-be-as-deadly-79-adults-exposed-to-covid-in-urban-india-who-aiims-sero-survey-9714201.htm

    Eh, who the heck knows. All the predictions, optimistic, pessimistic and middle of the road about the spread of this virus have been wrong. There was no apparent curve flattening, we didn’t all get it, but it didn’t go away, neither lockdowns nor openings seemed to make much difference.
    Yet both the US and Europe had 5 distinct waves, Brazil 3, India 2, South Africa 3

    As far as spread goes… looks like Covid does whatever it wants though the vaccine is going to keep down the hospitalizations and dying.

    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right&extra=Brazil%2CEuropean%20Union%2CIndia%2CSouth%20Africa#countries-normalized

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @vhrm

    "Eh, who the heck knows."

    Yup, who knows what is going on with the novel coronavirus. It's novel and thus hard to figure out.

    I mostly write about race, which doesn't much change over the course of a lifetime. Except, of course, when it does.

    , @Polistra
    @vhrm

    In india 79% of urban people have had Covid in some form.
     

    In today's thread Steve floats a comparison with the Twelve Monkeys scenario, which implies around five billion fatalities. Wake me up when India gets down around one billion again.

    Covid simply isn't very deadly. Contagious, yes, but not exactly threatening to life on earth. That being said, five billion fatalities is almost as bad as six million fatalities.

    , @Morton's toes
    @vhrm


    Eh, who the heck knows.
     
    IF it is a bioweapon attack then the attacker sure knows more than we do, although they may not know any more than we do about the corona virus. It's a pity there isn't one single person on the planet with Henry Kissinger connections who can be trusted. It's sort of analagous to Yahweh explaining to Abraham that actually they cannot find ten righteous men in the entire city of Sodom except multiplied by about a billion.
  129. @Charon
    @EliteCommInc.


    There are two many variable involved that indicate murder is not constant, it is not fixed and has more to do with the circumstance than mere kin color.
     
    I'll put this as kindly as I can. No one even implied that murder is a constant, nor did anyone say it has only one cause.

    The stats, however, are vastly more coherent than your "reasoning" appears to be, not to mention your series of fanciful assertions. To be taken seriously, you're going to have to construct a logical argument of some kind.

    Incidentally, "we" are not the people targeting blacks, unless perhaps you yourself are black, and by "we" you mean yourself and your cohorts.

    Replies: @Mike Tre, @danand

    “Incidentally, “we” are not the people targeting blacks, unless perhaps you yourself are black, and by “we” you mean yourself and your cohorts.”

    Fortunately Wakanda decedents preferred targets are other Wakanda decedents, but as Steve reiterates; their aim is often more miss, than hit. An automatic weapon makes that less of a hindrance. A segment from Saturday evenings local TV news broadcast:

    An “intended” succumbed, as well as a “wrong place” homeless person. A few others injured.

    The city, San Rafeal (NW of San Francisco) in which this “event” occurred is lucky to count relatively few Africant Americants among its populous:

    E857F2C6-83BB-4163-8174-AC796F4C9382

    Unfortunately for them the cities to the East are slowly becoming more vibrant, as feeder cities Oakland and East Palo Alto, slowly, but steadily become less so.

    The interesting aspect of the story, a least to me, is that the police told the event host “not have any more hip hop shows”, to which she responded (~1:50 point in segment) she was sad to hear. Wonder if she is sad for potential revenue loss, that vibrant peoples have one less place to do what they do, or that the clubs in the cities in which the vibrants reside are already “too hip” to them to let them hop in their clubs.

    I would guess San Rafael’s police chief’s reward for attempting to save his cities people will be an invitation to retire early.

  130. @vhrm
    @Morton's toes

    Well, this distinction doesn't make impact the efficacy of masks (good or bad) either way, i think, but it sounds like, in order to actually stop the spread of the virus we'd need some sort of inhaled vaccine. Like nasal spray or nebulizer or something.

    Although the way it's looking now everyone will eventually just get their mucosal immunity the old fashioned way: by getting COVID.

    In india 79% of urban people have had Covid in some form.


    67 percent (two-thirds) of 18+ people in the whole of India have been exposed to Sars Cov-2 (Covid-19), according to the survey.
    ...
    The seropositivity is as high as 79 percent in 18+ adults in urban India and 78 percent in youngsters below 18 in urban India.
    https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/third-wave-wont-be-as-deadly-79-adults-exposed-to-covid-in-urban-india-who-aiims-sero-survey-9714201.htm
     
    Eh, who the heck knows. All the predictions, optimistic, pessimistic and middle of the road about the spread of this virus have been wrong. There was no apparent curve flattening, we didn't all get it, but it didn't go away, neither lockdowns nor openings seemed to make much difference.
    Yet both the US and Europe had 5 distinct waves, Brazil 3, India 2, South Africa 3

    As far as spread goes... looks like Covid does whatever it wants though the vaccine is going to keep down the hospitalizations and dying.


    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right&extra=Brazil%2CEuropean%20Union%2CIndia%2CSouth%20Africa#countries-normalized

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Polistra, @Morton's toes

    “Eh, who the heck knows.”

    Yup, who knows what is going on with the novel coronavirus. It’s novel and thus hard to figure out.

    I mostly write about race, which doesn’t much change over the course of a lifetime. Except, of course, when it does.

  131. @vhrm
    @Morton's toes

    Well, this distinction doesn't make impact the efficacy of masks (good or bad) either way, i think, but it sounds like, in order to actually stop the spread of the virus we'd need some sort of inhaled vaccine. Like nasal spray or nebulizer or something.

    Although the way it's looking now everyone will eventually just get their mucosal immunity the old fashioned way: by getting COVID.

    In india 79% of urban people have had Covid in some form.


    67 percent (two-thirds) of 18+ people in the whole of India have been exposed to Sars Cov-2 (Covid-19), according to the survey.
    ...
    The seropositivity is as high as 79 percent in 18+ adults in urban India and 78 percent in youngsters below 18 in urban India.
    https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/third-wave-wont-be-as-deadly-79-adults-exposed-to-covid-in-urban-india-who-aiims-sero-survey-9714201.htm
     
    Eh, who the heck knows. All the predictions, optimistic, pessimistic and middle of the road about the spread of this virus have been wrong. There was no apparent curve flattening, we didn't all get it, but it didn't go away, neither lockdowns nor openings seemed to make much difference.
    Yet both the US and Europe had 5 distinct waves, Brazil 3, India 2, South Africa 3

    As far as spread goes... looks like Covid does whatever it wants though the vaccine is going to keep down the hospitalizations and dying.


    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right&extra=Brazil%2CEuropean%20Union%2CIndia%2CSouth%20Africa#countries-normalized

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Polistra, @Morton's toes

    In india 79% of urban people have had Covid in some form.

    In today’s thread Steve floats a comparison with the Twelve Monkeys scenario, which implies around five billion fatalities. Wake me up when India gets down around one billion again.

    Covid simply isn’t very deadly. Contagious, yes, but not exactly threatening to life on earth. That being said, five billion fatalities is almost as bad as six million fatalities.

  132. @James Speaks
    @Jakob Scheffer

    You wrote:


    The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.
     
    However, the probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 100%, and the probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise through violence over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.
    FIFY

    Replies: @Jakob Scheffer

    Thanks.

  133. @vhrm
    @Morton's toes

    Well, this distinction doesn't make impact the efficacy of masks (good or bad) either way, i think, but it sounds like, in order to actually stop the spread of the virus we'd need some sort of inhaled vaccine. Like nasal spray or nebulizer or something.

    Although the way it's looking now everyone will eventually just get their mucosal immunity the old fashioned way: by getting COVID.

    In india 79% of urban people have had Covid in some form.


    67 percent (two-thirds) of 18+ people in the whole of India have been exposed to Sars Cov-2 (Covid-19), according to the survey.
    ...
    The seropositivity is as high as 79 percent in 18+ adults in urban India and 78 percent in youngsters below 18 in urban India.
    https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/third-wave-wont-be-as-deadly-79-adults-exposed-to-covid-in-urban-india-who-aiims-sero-survey-9714201.htm
     
    Eh, who the heck knows. All the predictions, optimistic, pessimistic and middle of the road about the spread of this virus have been wrong. There was no apparent curve flattening, we didn't all get it, but it didn't go away, neither lockdowns nor openings seemed to make much difference.
    Yet both the US and Europe had 5 distinct waves, Brazil 3, India 2, South Africa 3

    As far as spread goes... looks like Covid does whatever it wants though the vaccine is going to keep down the hospitalizations and dying.


    https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right&extra=Brazil%2CEuropean%20Union%2CIndia%2CSouth%20Africa#countries-normalized

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Polistra, @Morton's toes

    Eh, who the heck knows.

    IF it is a bioweapon attack then the attacker sure knows more than we do, although they may not know any more than we do about the corona virus. It’s a pity there isn’t one single person on the planet with Henry Kissinger connections who can be trusted. It’s sort of analagous to Yahweh explaining to Abraham that actually they cannot find ten righteous men in the entire city of Sodom except multiplied by about a billion.

  134. @JimB
    @guest007


    The longer one lives, the greater the chance of dying from cancer.
     
    Along with everything else. Cardiovascular disease is the unavoidable main player in elder death since it leads to pathologies of the brain, kidneys, and liver. More very old people die with cancer rather than from it. I have a lot of centenarians in my family and they were all at some point diagnosed with skin, thyroid, or prostate cancer, usually in their 70s or 80s, but none of them died or were even slightly incapacitated by these cancers. In all cases, my elder relatives died when their brains shorted out rather suddenly due to arteriosclerosis.

    Replies: @guest007

    Thyroid and skin cancers are two of the most survivable cancers in modern medicine. What happens eventually is that women will die of breast cancer and men will die of prostate cancer. it is that the cardiovascular disease kills them first.

    In 2019 the comparison was Heart disease: 659,041 Cancer: 599,601

    • Replies: @JimB
    @guest007


    What happens eventually is that women will die of breast cancer and men will die of prostate cancer. it is that the cardiovascular disease kills them first.
     
    That would suggest that prostrates and breasts should be prophylactically removed at some age.
  135. @Charon
    @Ghost of Bull Moose

    Yep. The so-called "prestige media" is ignoring it of course. Firefighter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. (His own neighborhood)


    https://i.ibb.co/SwR2rck/Capture-2021-07-25-05-30-22-2.png

    Replies: @Ralph L, @Joe Stalin, @Paperback Writer, @prosa123, @J.Ross, @Sick 'n Tired, @Truth

    LMAO! HE GOT THE SHIT BEATEN OUT OF HIM BY A GROUP OF HONKEEZ!

    https://www.theblaze.com/news/new-york-city-crime-firefighter-attack

    Steve, quick, delete the thread!

  136. @Jakob Scheffer
    Here we are dealing with probabilities over time, not single events like flipping a coin. A better calculation would be 306/100,000 x 75 = 22,950/100,000, which is 22.95%. It is almost the same. The probability of a black man in St Louis coming to his demise over a lifetime is 22.95%, not trivial.

    Regards. JS

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @vhrm, @James Speaks, @res, @Truth

    …Another Fields Medal winner here.

  137. @Gamecock
    @prime noticer

    Obituaries are useless for scientific study. They are discretionary. Many who die do not appear in obituaries.

    Replies: @prime noticer

    are they useless? how would you know? have you done a longitudinal study of them over time, comparing them to the time periods of various health crises?

    that’s one of Steve’s favorite things to do with newspapers. how about trying it?

    especially, left wing newspapers would seem to be very interested in juicing up those numbers. they LOVE reporting about the hillbilly that thought covid was a hoax, then died from it. they hate reporting on people who got killed by the vaccine though, or lost their legs or whatever.

    furthermore, has funeral home business boomed? what are the numbers on that?

    you guys aren’t interested in jack shit. just your covid hysteria nonsense. all the usual data mining and analysis goes out the window here.

    • Replies: @Gamecock
    @prime noticer

    Obits are discretionary. That's not a secret. Call any funeral home, and they'll confirm. You propose using obits as a basis of scientific study. That's just stupid, because the data isn't what you think it is.

    'have you done a longitudinal study of them over time, comparing them to the time periods of various health crises? '

    No. And I haven't bungie jumped off the New River Gorge Bridge, either.

  138. “The stats, however, are vastly more coherent than your “reasoning” appears to be, not to mention your series of fanciful assertions. To be taken seriously, you’re going to have to construct a logical argument of some kind.”

    Define the term absolute term

    Once you understand what absolute terms are the model falls apart.

    Good grief. It’s not hard. The key reference is “absolute terms”. And your comment is nonsense having the right math but the incorrect model, rationale for the same or the incorrect application —

    The model fails and it does so in terms on several levels.

    Since crime stats are routinely used to determine policy positions regarding high black crime rates and describe why blacks should be denied this or that or be punished in those manner or that.

    Your comment lacks veracity

    further indicted by your own nonsensical need to denote skin color. But there’s no target. Laughing

    • Replies: @anon
    @EliteCommInc.

    Could you please rewrite this comment in English?

    Thanks.

  139. “I’ve always wondered . . . do you get dirt in your nose with your head buried in the sand?”

    I have in my life suffered from a kind of naïve belief that integrity matters. That one should say what they mean as close to an honest assessment as possible. Sure. That I expect people to act honestly has burned me.

    No doubt.

    But in this life. I am responsible for me. And while I certainly don’t think one expect crocodiles to be human, I certainly disapprove of humans acting as crocodiles regardless of their skin color. And while being aware that humans oft do act as crocodiles . . . my communication, my intent, my being strives to act as a rationale person, and that includes pushing back against even my own understanding regarding skin color types, assumptions. wants and potential misconceptions.

    I do lock my doors at night. Have dealt with lawyers, insurance companies, educational institutions, medical professionals and thieves . . . etc. and am keenly aware that among humans, anything is possible.

    Including the misuse of statistical models and the faux narratives used to cloud motive or the accuracy of said models.

  140. “They are committing crime at a higher rate and being prosecuted at the same higher rate.
    I’m not going to regard every Black person as a criminal ready to pounce, but in life you play the odds so I’m not going to move into a predominantly Black community either. Black “people with high IQ’s” agree with me. They get out of Black communities first chance they get.”

    Laughing.

    Uhhh, that’s one way to go. Or you could simply examine the stats of said neighborhood.

    Brentwood verses Compton and if you wanted to comprehend why said stats are as they are, then one might want to go beyond skin color. And consider what other factors might be contributing. In otherwords, is black skin the only value to consider, if so, then the model is incorrect. And applying it across to all black people, while convenient, suggests something about all blacks that is incorrect — demonstrably false.

    And we in this country have designed policy — housing policy around just that kind of matrix.

    But your effort is appreciated. It takes a long time to uproot something so well practiced in our understanding of human conduct. I used to be just like that, until I actually began reading and took some courses in stats with some very excellent professors.

    Relax, you can move into whatever neighborhood you choose.

    Laugh

  141. @EliteCommInc.
    "The stats, however, are vastly more coherent than your “reasoning” appears to be, not to mention your series of fanciful assertions. To be taken seriously, you’re going to have to construct a logical argument of some kind."


    Define the term absolute term


    Once you understand what absolute terms are the model falls apart.


    Good grief. It's not hard. The key reference is "absolute terms". And your comment is nonsense having the right math but the incorrect model, rationale for the same or the incorrect application ---

    The model fails and it does so in terms on several levels.

    Since crime stats are routinely used to determine policy positions regarding high black crime rates and describe why blacks should be denied this or that or be punished in those manner or that.

    Your comment lacks veracity

    further indicted by your own nonsensical need to denote skin color. But there's no target. Laughing

    Replies: @anon

    Could you please rewrite this comment in English?

    Thanks.

    • Agree: gandydancer
  142. @prime noticer
    @Gamecock

    are they useless? how would you know? have you done a longitudinal study of them over time, comparing them to the time periods of various health crises?

    that's one of Steve's favorite things to do with newspapers. how about trying it?

    especially, left wing newspapers would seem to be very interested in juicing up those numbers. they LOVE reporting about the hillbilly that thought covid was a hoax, then died from it. they hate reporting on people who got killed by the vaccine though, or lost their legs or whatever.

    furthermore, has funeral home business boomed? what are the numbers on that?

    you guys aren't interested in jack shit. just your covid hysteria nonsense. all the usual data mining and analysis goes out the window here.

    Replies: @Gamecock

    Obits are discretionary. That’s not a secret. Call any funeral home, and they’ll confirm. You propose using obits as a basis of scientific study. That’s just stupid, because the data isn’t what you think it is.

    ‘have you done a longitudinal study of them over time, comparing them to the time periods of various health crises? ‘

    No. And I haven’t bungie jumped off the New River Gorge Bridge, either.

  143. @Almost Missouri
    @Morton's toes

    From the doctor's comment:


    I have been a physician for 30 years and that experience plays a huge role as well. Having this gigantic number of breakthrough cases just simply does not happen. I continue to see more than half the cases in vaccinated patients and so do many others. UNHEARD OF IN VACCINES BEFORE NOW.

    ... It basically means the vaccinated have a much higher amount of viral active particles than the unvaccinated. That would account for the breakthroughs I and my colleagues are seeing being a bit more ill. And it would explain the clustering. THe vaccinated breakthroughs have much higher viral load so they are much more contagious and the higher viral load makes them more symptomatic.

    So we now have a suggestion and strong evidence that the vaccinated population may be spreading much more virus than the unvaccinated. I would say that is a critical public health issue and must be further researched immediately.

    ... The writers make the point that the breakthrough rate is extremely divergent from the expected rate. The difference is this paper documents what is happening in REAL LIFE. So much of what we are hearing on our media about vaccine efficacy is research being done in vitro. It is presented as gospel truth. I just want to scream.
     
    "Gigantic number" of breakthrough cases may be unheard of in human diseases, but it is not unheard of in animal diseases.

    As I keep pointing out, premature, half-assed vaccines have turned a minor nuisance into a genuine life-or-death global pandemic before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

    But who would be stupid enough to take the process of pharmaceutically inducing a lethal global epidemic in poultry and to repeat it in humans?

    Our stupid elites are just the ones.

    Replies: @Morton's toes, @Triteleia Laxa, @gcochran

    You have it wrong.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @gcochran

    Thanks for your insight.

    But seriously, I've been an admirer of yours for some time, so it is an honor to have attracted your attention, even if negatively.

    In your most recent covid podcast with James Miller, you yourself said that 1) the vaccines were aimed more at mitigating symptoms than at stopping transmission, and 2) that more transmission means more variants which means more chances for higher lethality. So since we agree about 1 and 2, how does 1 + 2 not equal 3: Marek's Disease for humans?

  144. @gcochran
    @Almost Missouri

    You have it wrong.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Thanks for your insight.

    But seriously, I’ve been an admirer of yours for some time, so it is an honor to have attracted your attention, even if negatively.

    In your most recent covid podcast with James Miller, you yourself said that 1) the vaccines were aimed more at mitigating symptoms than at stopping transmission, and 2) that more transmission means more variants which means more chances for higher lethality. So since we agree about 1 and 2, how does 1 + 2 not equal 3: Marek’s Disease for humans?

  145. @Jakob Scheffer
    @vhrm

    Time is continuous. A year is not an event. Neither is a day, a week, a month or an hour. The shorter the period you choose, the higher the probability that it will occur in a longer period if we regard periods as single events. It is like compounding interest. If you compound interest every day, you will have more interest at the end of the year than if you compound it every week. If you compound it every every week, you will have more interest at the end of the year than if you compound it every month.

    You may well be right, but 75 days or 75 years are not the same as 75 throws of a die.

    Replies: @res

    Compound interest is a good analogy. Some relevant observations.

    1. The error introduced by using longer intervals increases with the interest (or murder) rate and length of time.

    2. Continuous compounding approaches a limit which could be considered the true result. This page has some discussion, but notice how they needed a high interest rate (15%) to emphasize the different incomes for different compounding periods within one year.
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/continuouscompounding.asp

    You may well be right, but 75 days or 75 years are not the same as 75 throws of a die.

    Sure. But is that approximation good enough? It IS better than the approximation you offered in comment 110. Though yours has the benefit of being simpler to calculate and is fairly close for the values involved.

  146. @Jakob Scheffer
    @vhrm

    Suppose that for the next 5 days, the probability of rainfall is 1/5 for each day. If we treat days as single events, then the probability that there will be rain in the next 5 days is 1 - 4/5^5 = 1 - 1024/3125 = 2101/3125 = 67.23%.

    If we use my method, then the probability of rainfall for the next days is 5 x 1/5 = 1. Well, it isn't 1, so my method was wrong, but my point that the choice of time periods is somewhat arbitrary remains valid.

    Replies: @gandydancer, @gandydancer, @gandydancer

    The reason you can’t just add the probabilities of rainfall is that you can have 0,1,2,3,4 or 5 days with rainfall. It’s the expected number of days of rainfall that equals one, not the probability of rainfall that equals one.

    You can’t, of course, have more than one death in 75 years, which is why Steve chose to calculate the chance of NO death in 75 years IF you live 75 years w/o death from other causes.

    You are correct to see that his choice of collapsing a continual process into 75 “events” is problematic, but let me approach that from a different direction:

    Again making the simplifying assumption that the only source of death is murder, first note that if you die in the first year then your chance of dying in the subsequent 74 years is zero.

    Now, suppose you start with 1000 individuals and the chance of being murdered is uniform at 1%/yr.

    In analogy with annual compounding 10 individuals are expected to die the first year, leaving 990.

    A CLOSER APPROXIMATION to reality can be achieved by using six-month intervals. Then, for the second six months you expect to have only 995 individuals alive and the expected number of deaths will be 995/1000*5, a slightly smaller number than 5 and the expected number alive at the end of the first year will be slightly more than 990.

    This process can be repeated ad infinitem and you will progress asymptotically towards a limit that analogizes to what is called continuous compounding.

    I don’t remember the math, but for reasonable numbers it just doesn’t make much of a difference when you calculate interest, and shouldn’t make much difference here. I expect that the non-uniformity of murder rates noted by many in this thread will have larger effects than the difference between annual compounding and continuous.

  147. @Jakob Scheffer
    @vhrm

    Suppose that for the next 5 days, the probability of rainfall is 1/5 for each day. If we treat days as single events, then the probability that there will be rain in the next 5 days is 1 - 4/5^5 = 1 - 1024/3125 = 2101/3125 = 67.23%.

    If we use my method, then the probability of rainfall for the next days is 5 x 1/5 = 1. Well, it isn't 1, so my method was wrong, but my point that the choice of time periods is somewhat arbitrary remains valid.

    Replies: @gandydancer, @gandydancer, @gandydancer

    …it further occurs to me that there is a close analogy, and that if you look into it you will find the correct mathematics: Radioactive decay. What fraction of a sample will be left after 75 years if you know the rate of decay? You might have to translate %/yr into half-life, but that should be straightforward.

  148. @Jakob Scheffer
    @vhrm

    Suppose that for the next 5 days, the probability of rainfall is 1/5 for each day. If we treat days as single events, then the probability that there will be rain in the next 5 days is 1 - 4/5^5 = 1 - 1024/3125 = 2101/3125 = 67.23%.

    If we use my method, then the probability of rainfall for the next days is 5 x 1/5 = 1. Well, it isn't 1, so my method was wrong, but my point that the choice of time periods is somewhat arbitrary remains valid.

    Replies: @gandydancer, @gandydancer, @gandydancer

    …and I further want to emphasize that this is a math puzzle that is basically useless for answering the question that Steve really wants or ought to want answered: If born in a neighborhood with a particular (and fixed) murder rate, what is the probability that you will be murdered?

    The radioactive decay model is obviously wrong: It says that everyone is eventually murdered.

    The first fatal flaw is ignoring that other forms of death will intervene.

    And, as many have pointed out, YOUR chance-of-murder rate will not be fixed, varying with age, your criminality, risk behavior, etc.

  149. @guest007
    @JimB

    Thyroid and skin cancers are two of the most survivable cancers in modern medicine. What happens eventually is that women will die of breast cancer and men will die of prostate cancer. it is that the cardiovascular disease kills them first.

    In 2019 the comparison was Heart disease: 659,041 Cancer: 599,601

    Replies: @JimB

    What happens eventually is that women will die of breast cancer and men will die of prostate cancer. it is that the cardiovascular disease kills them first.

    That would suggest that prostrates and breasts should be prophylactically removed at some age.

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS
PastClassics
The JFK Assassination and the 9/11 Attacks?
How America was neoconned into World War IV
Analyzing the History of a Controversial Movement