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From the L.A. Times:
First Californian to get coronavirus in community spread was infected at a nail salon, Newsom says
By PHIL WILLON STAFF WRITER
MAY 7, 20205:12 PMSACRAMENTO — The first person in California to contract the coronavirus through community spread caught the virus in a nail salon, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday.
Newsom cited the case when asked why personal services, such as nail salons, must remain closed even as the state starts to slowly open businesses.
“This whole thing started in the state of California, the first community spread, in a nail salon. I just want to remind everybody of that and that I’m very worried about that,” Newsom said during his daily COVID-19 briefing in Sacramento.
Newsom said the transmission of the virus occurred despite the fact that most nail salons already had safeguards in place before the coronavirus hit, including the used of face masks and gloves.
He did not provide further details, including when the exposure occurred and where.
In other words, the governor is presumably violating some rule about privacy of tracing results.
My feeling is, however, that researchers should be allowed to get their hands on track-and-trace files because they ought to be highly useful at informing the public about which places are more and which are less risky. Don’t just rely on the first case, look at one thousand (or more) cases. Publish the results.
For example, here is an NYT piece with some fun graphics:
Is It Safer to Visit a Coffee Shop or a Gym?
By Katherine Baicker, Oeindrila Dube, Sendhil Mullainathan, Devin Pope and Gus Wezerek
MAY 6, 2020
Unfortunately, they just don’t know. They are making up theories like places where you touch stuff a lot are more dangerous than places where you don’t. But what if the virus is spread more by breathing or talking or laughing or breathing hard or singing? What about places where you can’t wear a mask? You can wear a mask at a gym but it’s hard to wear a mask at a coffee shop.
Let’s get some data.
Knowledge is good.
English
Arabic
Chinese (Simplified)
Dutch
French
German
Hebrew
Hindi
Italian
Japanese
Korean
Persian
Polish
Portuguese
Russian
Spanish
Swedish
Turkish
Vietnamese
More likely that the woman with the virus was a chinese immigrant working in a nail shop.
Just because the first recorded community transmission was in a nail salon doesn’t mean that nail salons are inhrently risky. Presumably the person could have picked it up from public transport or at a supermarket, would Newsom be talking about how important it is to keep supermarkets closed if that was the case? No he wouldn’t. It’s almost completely irrelevant where their first transmission was from but instead, as you suggest, the innate risk of each activity.
I’ll tell you what, you want danger, you want safety, you want to be where Joe is and where Joe likes to go, because, it’s safety, but not often enough in the small towns and the smaller houses, okay? The choice of jungle gyms or the coffee pots becomes, becomes flat, when we’re looking at it from on our side.
I’m about to punch your cat in the mouth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=emb_title&v=j-urfohXAOo
———-
I’m now realizing that, say, GHW Bush, Dan Quayle, GW Bush, et al, who were mocked for clumsy talk, would make little gaffes in speech which were a function of speech (they’d never make these mistakes writing, even without speechwriters), but you always knew what they were saying. It was like if somebody was discussing Napoleon and at one point he slips up and says Alexander when he clearly meant to say the Corsican. In a more genteel time the press would forgive these errors and we’d never know about them.
But Biden really is objectively incoherent. He’s not flubbing one word in an otherwise perfect sentence, his whole sentences are laborious gibberish.
Bush, Obama (no great shakes without the teleprompter), Trump and now apparently Biden: each winner is successively worse and worse at communicating (even the Great Communicator was senile). Is there an evolutionary reason for this, like the taller candidate winning? Some have suggested that with Reagan and Trump, people are able to project their own dreams on his white noise.Replies: @J.Ross
Probably not a good risk: cafe on a gay cruise ship
coupleofmen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Open-Sea-Cruises-New-European-Gay-Cruise-5.jpg?w=1196&h=795&ssl=1
http://coupleofmen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Open-Sea-Cruises-New-European-Gay-Cruise-5.jpgReplies: @Meretricious
Go fuck yourself, boomerfag
Kill all boomerfags and we can go back to normal
You “zoomers” are going to be the most irrelevant generation since the “Silents.”
Once y’all enter the “market” in full you’re going to make millennials look like wholesome geniuses, so thanks for that.
Is this the new normal – a complete abandonment of the scientific method, basing major policy decision on personal anecdotes and outliers ? Has Newsom ever heard of statistics ?
Hey, the NYC data convincingly indicates that home is the most dangerous place to catch the bug. Let’s tell everybody they should sleep under bridges with hobos. This is becoming such a farce.
Expect nothing that makes him look bad.
Privacy, total freedom, and open borders is why we can’t have nice things … like total viral elimination a la Australia and New Zealand. Imagine: a total return to the way things were before, minus international travel excursions and slave labor housekeepers.
He’s also treading dangerously close to Racism Territory,
and he’s always promised us he wouldn’t do that.
In general, gym equipment is spaced out enough that it’s usually possible to maintain reasonable amounts of separation.
It’s all Tippi Hedren’s fault!
How Tippi Hedren made Vietnamese refugees into nail salon magnates
Here she is with our own Corvinus:
I find it tough to wrap my head around all of the conflicting information regarding the virus, but it seems like some countries that have handled it well (Australia and South Korea, for example) were a lot stricter about restricting foreign arrivals than us. Australia apparently excluded everyone but returning citizens and residents, and required them to quarantine for 14 days.
An American entrepreneur I follow on Twitter flew to South Korea recently with his Asian (American?) wife and they bused him from the airport to a quarantine hotel where he and his wife couldn’t leave their hotel room for two weeks. They got random fast food delivered to them a few times per day and were given instructions about how to dispose of their waste.
We’re 7 weeks into a lock down in much of America and we’d probably have had fewer deaths with a shorter lock down if we:
– Stopped domestic flights out of the New York area in mid-March.
– Stopped all foreign arrivals except for returning citizens and residents and required those to quarantine for 14 days.
– Didn’t send COVID-19 patients to nursing homes with non-COVID-19 patients, and instead segregated the infected from the non-infected.
All of your reasonable suggestions are racist, and racism is worse than the virus.
This is the one issue that really gets me. We knew (or suspected) early on that CV19 was really going after old people, basically 65 and older but even more so the 85 and older cohort. Why was the plan to protect these people not more cogent and organized? This should have been the top priority of state and local governments from the beginning. Maybe there was a lot of unavoidable chaos and confusion in the beginning, but the scandal with the NY nursing homes seems unacceptable.
At the time of the 1968 Hong Kong Flu, which killed about 100,000 (mostly older) Americans, the country had about 19.6M people over 65. In 2018 we had about 52.3M people 65 or older.
In 1968, we had 928K people over 85. In 2018 we had about 6.5M people over 85. Almost a factor of 7 greater.
That's a lot more older folks with limited immune systems by 2020; definitely a soft target if there ever was one for any novel virus.
Knowledge is good
The kind of knowledge you’re thinking about doesn’t do much good. It leaves people so anxious about the tiniest of “dangers”, that the harmful effects of their very anxiety swamp whatever they theoretically gain. It is also far too easy easy to get wrong—suddenly millions of people are on statins to “treat” lab measurements that by this kind of “knowledge” meant death but really never meant anything, while incurring disturbingly non-theoretical “side” effects.
The kind of knowledge that would be useful is what nobody is looking for, like: What do our parasites gain from very selectively killing certain lines of business?
It can’t be concern about Corona deaths. Knowledge a lot less iffy than the nail salon story says diabetes kills. So let’s immediately ban all sales of Coca Cola until we’ve gathered even more knowledge, right? The parasite laughs into my face at the mere suggestion—but wants to kill nail salons. Why?
Who wants to kill every private, and mostly White-owned, business?
Who stands to profit from a "vaccine"?
Who has openly boasted that their vaccines have a goal of population control?
Who shut down all Athletic events AHEAD of the ramping up of the current never-ending hysteria, so there is no escaping the Fear Porn Propaganda?
Who closed the schools AFTER it was known that he current illness has a statistically zero chance of infecting any kids?
Who keeps moving the goal post on the lock downs, form "flatten the curve" to "we can't reinfect" to "just stay inside until we have a vaccine"?
Who came up with the absurd Fetish Totem of mask- wearing?
Who WANTS to be a rat on their neighbors?
How did deaths from pneumonia suddenly disappear from the country?
And my question:
How can the entire mechanism of the Rule of Law collapse over night, without the slightest squawk from the American People, over a minor league cold virus?
All very good questions.
This appears to be a classic case of spread: A large family living together, many of whom appear to be on the larger side, especially the unfortunate patriarch who died:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/07/azusa-family-loses-patriarch-as-10-members-test-positive-for-coronavirus/
coupleofmen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Open-Sea-Cruises-New-European-Gay-Cruise-5.jpg?w=1196&h=795&ssl=1
https://anthonyschumann.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/42-15332587.jpgReplies: @Lot, @Lugash, @CCZ
Pic embed attempt 2:
Does it matter, as long as both are within the eruv?
Steve, there are no usable data, nor will there be, of the kind you’re asking.
Knowledge is good. But ‘knowledge’ is lame. Either there’s going to be an effective treatment/vaccine or there isn’t. If there isn’t, it will be up to the individual to self-isolate or not, and up to institutions and businesses to set their own requirements for PPE / social distancing.
OCD ‘data’-crunching busywork bugmen won’t have answers when it comes to acceptable density, because each environment is too dynamic. Everyday people (customers, store owners) will have to judge for themselves.
Hey, don't disparage the median iSteve fan. STEM rulez, we don't need your squishy, anti-Engightenment, Cultural Marxist Frankfurt School liberal arts handwaving here.Replies: @Steve Sailer
Incidentally, here in New Jersey, the gyms are still closed, but the new Krispy Kreme location is open, and the drive-thru line for it extends about a quarter mile around the parking lot of a mostly otherwise-empty strip mall.
Gyms closed, beaches only reopened a few days ago (and not even all of them, with reduced parking), playground equipment and some trails taped off at parks, but Krispy Kreme, Lowe’s, and assorted chicken joints processing hundreds of customers within hours.
Community transmission is fine in either a gym or coffee shop. It is care homes and hospitals that need to be protected.
I'm about to punch your cat in the mouth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=emb_title&v=j-urfohXAOo
----------
I'm now realizing that, say, GHW Bush, Dan Quayle, GW Bush, et al, who were mocked for clumsy talk, would make little gaffes in speech which were a function of speech (they'd never make these mistakes writing, even without speechwriters), but you always knew what they were saying. It was like if somebody was discussing Napoleon and at one point he slips up and says Alexander when he clearly meant to say the Corsican. In a more genteel time the press would forgive these errors and we'd never know about them.
But Biden really is objectively incoherent. He's not flubbing one word in an otherwise perfect sentence, his whole sentences are laborious gibberish.Replies: @Neoconned, @Anonymous, @James J. O'Meara
I’m surprised they’re running him at his age….but think about it…..the alternative is Bernie….and Wall Street would hire put hitmen on him and tank the global economy wayyyyy before he got anywhere near their stolen loot.
Gavin Newsom says life is unfair;
They struck oil when they drilled in his hair,
But he can’t count on making a killing,
Said oil is now not worth the drilling;
Since the recent price-war episode,
That commodity’s down the commode.
Neither is safe. Stay hunkered down in your homes !!!
Fear is Freedumb®!
Subjugation is liberation!
Contradiction is truth!
Those are the facts in this world ….
Yes, but current narrative says, “Belief is better.”
They can’t control facts but they can control belief.
OT – I’m wondering if these are some of the first shots in a wider war, particularly with the putative coronavirus jab and coronavirus apps on the horizon.
Only a few months ago, an “anti-vaxxer” was someone who thought vaccinations, particularly the MMR triple jab, could have unwanted side effects like autism or worse. The exemplar was Andrew Wakefield, a doctor struck off apparently for maintaining this view too vocally.
Now, perfectly healthy young Australian rugby players are being denigrated by a Guardian news (not opinion) writer for refusing a flu vaccination, something which in the UK is only offered to people over 60 or with conditions making them vulnerable.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/may/08/coronavirus-australia-live-news-national-cabinet-scott-morrison-nsw-victoria-lockdown-economy-latest-updates
The Guardian view, by one Ben Smee, writing as a news journalist
Elsewhere, tennis no 1 Novak Djokovic is apparently an “anti-vaxxer” for saying he doesn’t want to take a coronavirus jab which hasn’t been developed yet, and may never be. Even RT is getting the Guardian bug.
https://www.rt.com/sport/487957-nadal-djokovic-coronavirus-vaccination/
It strikes me that vaccinations are getting more virulent, rapidly evolving from “recommended” to “mandatory”.
Money-making, I presume.Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
But, yeah, vaccines "jumped the shark" when they started insisting on HepB for newborns just out of the birth canal (even those of HepB-neg mothers and those without clotting disorders or any other reason to think they'll need blood transfusions anytime soon.)
So what was the rationale? Well, some of these tiny babes may become 14 y o hookers someday, so let's jab 'em now while it's convenient. Convenient. No kidding. "Jab 'em if ya got 'em."
The data I need to see is the race of the vector. Am I more likely to catch CV from a black than a white, from a white than an Asian?
Go anyplace it’s legal and the hell with it.
At long last, I now think “Plandemic” and “It’s Just the Flu, Bro” were right.
Nobody I know or work with has missed a day since this business started. Not one of us knows anyone who has it (and as far as age and particulars go, we cover the gamut from late teens to well into the 70x).
Okay. Small town Ohio, factory and all that, we’re “essential” which maybe made us invulnerable. But everyone old enough to recall the Hong Kong Flu (1969) has said that the difference between now and then is we’ve turned into the United States of Hysteria. Everything flips everyone out no matter what.
Stoic words of wisdom with about 2000 years of successful use behind them: “Surely I must die. But must I also complain about it? Must we all spend our lives fearing everything so much that we cease to live?”
Not many stoics outside of small towns, I guess.
Considering that data shows that I personally, given my age and health, have a smaller chance of dying from this than the usual seasonal flu…I think that for me to reflect on gym-going versus coffee shops would be like obsessing over whether I am more likely to die from tripping on the pavement or falling out of bed – completely silly.
I appreciate that not everyone has my privilege (risk profile) and so others must choose to stay at home and all that, but it is worth pointing out that many seem desperate to make me suffer the consequences of their lack of similar privilege.
Perhaps I should have surgery to give me diabetes so that we can have more social justice?
Many economic indicators right now are apocalyptically bad. You know what Reagan said about the difference between a recession and a depression....well, I've lost my job (like more than one quarter of the state). This is a totally unprecedented economic situation, and things could get really bad. Should make it fun to pay off my student loans and buy a house. So much for affordable family formation.Anecdotally, I observe that the SWPLs are still dutifully following the new protocols, but my more conservative friends in outer suburban and rural areas are turning poisonously against this. The political situation could get interesting fast.
However, the idea that your risk from the Wuhan special--even as a young healthy person--is less than the "seasonal flu" is--i think--off base.
There are years when something new--or new to most of the population--pops where it's both pretty severe and peoples' immune systems aren't up to speed. (The Asian flu when i was a mere pup was pretty deadly; apparently managed to kick off pneumonia without secondary infection.) But the typical seasonal "flu death" toll is a joke. It's pneumonia deaths of anyone who had symptoms of a typical cold/flu. They don't test for flu. Those CDC numbers are even more inflated than this thing. And people who die of the seasonal flu--in this day and age with antibiotics to treat pneumonia--are almost all people who really just needed something to die from.
In contrast, the Wuhan special actually does kill a--very tiny, but non-zero--number of younger people who get a big dose--mostly medical workers so far--where their immune system freaks into a cytokine storm. Less chance of that for say a 30 year old than being killed in an auto accident, but more than a typical seasonal flu.
Note, i'm not saying you shouldn't invite all your friends, some positive folks and get Chinese takeout for a big Wuhan party. Just saying it isn't flat out zero. The regular seasonal flu for a healthy young person pretty much is zero.Replies: @UK
I appreciate that not everyone has my privilege (risk profile) and so others must choose to stay at home and all that, but it is worth pointing out that many seem desperate to make me suffer the consequences of their lack of similar privilege.
Perhaps I should have surgery to give me diabetes so that we can have more social justice?Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon, @res, @AnotherDad
Do you ever come in contact with anyone less in perfect health than yourself?
If you're going to use that logic to guilt-shame, you may as well take it all the way.
https://youtu.be/eXWhbUUE4ko
We should not be fishing for more red herrings.
Every bit of social distancing hurts and none of it helps.
And while I myself don’t even care enough to understand what medical privacy laws you are advocating be broken I know that we are now in a fight between those who want to turn the entire world into a college safespace and those who believe in human rights. And I suspect that your suggestion strengthens the wrong team.
Not one inch.
We need to go on the offensive against the safespacers and all their works.
The Panickers were wrong and they should not be coddled any more. They should be driven back into silence and shame. The “virus” is nothing but the flu bro. Except
A) Much more contagious, so trying to stop it is a waste
and
B) Much less dangerous, so unless you’re super sick already you have no concern about it
The worm has turned. The fight now is against the few remaining True Believers and their evil fantasies and they should be given no quarter. Pretending that “protecting” regular people from “infection” is a thing is counterproductive. Very counterproductive.
If the goal is herd immunity you are correct. But misanthropes should still follow the advice of the voice in their head. Epidemiologists using the term "herd immunity" should give one pause. We should be wary of doctors who inhabit government bureaucracies. I enjoy smelling hair. Am I Joe Biden?
Juicy, what happened to your cheerfulness? You don’t sound joyful. I miss the old you. Put on a Speedo, grab a Jule and a gin and tonic and go outside for some sun. You’ll feel better. Stay safe!
We’ve got an employee who’s wife was Covid positive, so we locked them in their house for fourteen days. We are going to let him come back to the factory without being tested. HR says we can’t make him get tested and we can’t even ask him to get tested. HR is trusting CDC guidelines. I live in a world of idiots: Lock a person up with a Covid patient, then bring him back into the community without getting tested. How in the name of all that is holy does that make sense. Oh, and close the beaches! Now I am getting pissed like Juicy Omar.
Come on Steve, everyone agrees that the vulnerable should be protected. Counting angels in pins however is counterproductive. And surrendering human rights to do so is even more counterproductive.
If you’re going to use that logic to guilt-shame, you may as well take it all the way.
Back in elementary school ( a long time ago) we were warned that our fingernails we’re especially germy so we should not chew them off.
As to gyms, I recall a prison warden removing the weight lifting equipment as he did not want his inmates to get muscle bound. Of course inmates found other ways to build themselves up eg doing pushups with another inmate sitting on his back.
“but wants to kill nail salons. Why?”
Who wants to kill every private, and mostly White-owned, business?
Who stands to profit from a “vaccine”?
Who has openly boasted that their vaccines have a goal of population control?
Who shut down all Athletic events AHEAD of the ramping up of the current never-ending hysteria, so there is no escaping the Fear Porn Propaganda?
Who closed the schools AFTER it was known that he current illness has a statistically zero chance of infecting any kids?
Who keeps moving the goal post on the lock downs, form “flatten the curve” to “we can’t reinfect” to “just stay inside until we have a vaccine”?
Who came up with the absurd Fetish Totem of mask- wearing?
Who WANTS to be a rat on their neighbors?
How did deaths from pneumonia suddenly disappear from the country?
And my question:
How can the entire mechanism of the Rule of Law collapse over night, without the slightest squawk from the American People, over a minor league cold virus?
All very good questions.
Sort of a problem, people just making things up and passing it along adding to the general confusion.
I’m sort of confused. How did the virus get into a nail salon all by itself? Someone flew in from China, went straight to the nail salon and started infecting people there without passing it on prior to that, not on the plane, at home, traveling around before going to the salon?
I'm about to punch your cat in the mouth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=emb_title&v=j-urfohXAOo
----------
I'm now realizing that, say, GHW Bush, Dan Quayle, GW Bush, et al, who were mocked for clumsy talk, would make little gaffes in speech which were a function of speech (they'd never make these mistakes writing, even without speechwriters), but you always knew what they were saying. It was like if somebody was discussing Napoleon and at one point he slips up and says Alexander when he clearly meant to say the Corsican. In a more genteel time the press would forgive these errors and we'd never know about them.
But Biden really is objectively incoherent. He's not flubbing one word in an otherwise perfect sentence, his whole sentences are laborious gibberish.Replies: @Neoconned, @Anonymous, @James J. O'Meara
Of course YouTwat has nuked the video. Was it really Senilo G. or an emulator?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYdpOjletnc
(Should have added that to the earlier comment, but I was distracted.)
”You can wear a mask at a gym but it’s hard to wear a mask at a coffee shop.“
Straws. I’m going long on straws. Not plastic ones, the impregnated paper ones. Who makes straws? Anyone here in America? No? They’re made in China too? So every bit of protective gear, every ameliorating item is made in China?
We’re trapped in a maze. The white lab-coated experimenters are laughing as they look down on us through the plexiglas ceiling, waging bets on who of us will crack first as it dawns on us that there is No Exit.
In a vacuum, I agree that more data is good and I would also agree that “contact tracing” would be valuable for identifying how covid interacts with people in different situations.
But in today’s partisan and biased environment, do we really trust government employees to track and store that information impartially and keep it private and not use it for nefarious purposes?
I don’t think I do. Hell, Newsom couldn’t even do it for one person.
Pass.
We should definitely keep doctors’ offices and hospitals closed as they seem to be magnets for sick people. We need an online app where people can print off sick notes for their employers.
Nail salons should be closed anyway. They are just a scam by which foreigners take huge amounts of money from our women for a service that has little or no value.
Is the U S. not the craziest nation on the planet? That’s why we love it so much. God bless us.
Same for nursing homes and care homes. It is a similar mechanism to that used by Santa Claus to identify the homes where there are children and to deliver gifts even when there is no chimney.
It’s a real mystery! probably nothing to do with illegal asian ‘nail technicians’ though.
http://coupleofmen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Open-Sea-Cruises-New-European-Gay-Cruise-5.jpgReplies: @Meretricious
Enough with the travel shots boychik
Oh look, a tiktok user.
You “zoomers” are going to be the most irrelevant generation since the “Silents.”
Once y’all enter the “market” in full you’re going to make millennials look like wholesome geniuses, so thanks for that.
As to gyms, I recall a prison warden removing the weight lifting equipment as he did not want his inmates to get muscle bound. Of course inmates found other ways to build themselves up eg doing pushups with another inmate sitting on his back.Replies: @Meretricious
Probably a Nazi. Didn’t want the homies to be even more irresistible to white chicks on the outside. Always with an eye toward eugenics, those Nazis.
Only a few months ago, an "anti-vaxxer" was someone who thought vaccinations, particularly the MMR triple jab, could have unwanted side effects like autism or worse. The exemplar was Andrew Wakefield, a doctor struck off apparently for maintaining this view too vocally.
Now, perfectly healthy young Australian rugby players are being denigrated by a Guardian news (not opinion) writer for refusing a flu vaccination, something which in the UK is only offered to people over 60 or with conditions making them vulnerable.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/may/08/coronavirus-australia-live-news-national-cabinet-scott-morrison-nsw-victoria-lockdown-economy-latest-updatesThe Guardian view, by one Ben Smee, writing as a news journalistElsewhere, tennis no 1 Novak Djokovic is apparently an "anti-vaxxer" for saying he doesn't want to take a coronavirus jab which hasn't been developed yet, and may never be. Even RT is getting the Guardian bug.
https://www.rt.com/sport/487957-nadal-djokovic-coronavirus-vaccination/It strikes me that vaccinations are getting more virulent, rapidly evolving from "recommended" to "mandatory".Replies: @S. Anonyia, @jsm, @Morton's toes
There’s definitely way more pressure from doctors/pharmacists/employers to get a flu shot than there was even 5-6 years ago.
Money-making, I presume.
They are also rewarded for hitting targets on things like MMR.
Same thing on the Gulf Coast here.
Gyms closed, beaches only reopened a few days ago (and not even all of them, with reduced parking), playground equipment and some trails taped off at parks, but Krispy Kreme, Lowe’s, and assorted chicken joints processing hundreds of customers within hours.
I appreciate that not everyone has my privilege (risk profile) and so others must choose to stay at home and all that, but it is worth pointing out that many seem desperate to make me suffer the consequences of their lack of similar privilege.
Perhaps I should have surgery to give me diabetes so that we can have more social justice?Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon, @res, @AnotherDad
I’m in the same camp. I was initially concerned about this, but I’ve gotten over it. I live in an area (Eastern Massachusetts) that’s been hit harder than average, but I don’t know a single person who’s had the virus. The local hospitals have plenty of capacity. And there is evidence suggesting that a substantial fraction of the population in this area has already gotten it.
Many economic indicators right now are apocalyptically bad. You know what Reagan said about the difference between a recession and a depression….well, I’ve lost my job (like more than one quarter of the state). This is a totally unprecedented economic situation, and things could get really bad. Should make it fun to pay off my student loans and buy a house. So much for affordable family formation.
Anecdotally, I observe that the SWPLs are still dutifully following the new protocols, but my more conservative friends in outer suburban and rural areas are turning poisonously against this. The political situation could get interesting fast.
This position is ignorant of what is ultimately going to be done with the data.
Once lawyers get their hands on this treasure trove, the “but for” argument will be used to demonstrate (in “civil” court) that pushing a crosswalk button delays someone and further down the chain the delayed person gets killed.
Lawyer up, everyone.
Not true. At my local Starbucks, most of the customers are college students who buy one thing and then camp out on their laptop for the afternoon.
I don’t see how Starbucks was allowed to close at all, seeing as its Constitutional role (as we learned from that incident in Philadelphia) is to provide toilet facilities to the general public.
any study of where infections is useless without demographic data. We already know that healthy people who contract CV will most likely not show symptoms, not be hospitalized and thus not likely be tracked or picked up in any studies. Smoking also offers protection from CV, so pool halls and casinos may be safer than other establishments. Dive bars may prove safer than fancier drinking establishments, as the clientele and bartenders tend to be smokers or use smokeless tobacco more often.
Those going to a gym are more likely to be fit , not obese and have a better diet (thus have higher levels of vitaminD) compared to those getting their nails done. The most important factors concerning coronavirus is age and obesity.
Healthy people under the age of 60 have little risk of getting very sick from CV. Thus if the gym caters to younger people , they will not observe any hospitalizations from CV. The types of people going to the establishments will be the determining factor related to CV. The elderly are at risk of getting hospitalized with CV, thus they should avoid going to gyms, coffee shops and bowling alleys. They should avoid being in close contact with people if it an be avoided.
it amazed me that few people in Atlantic City contracted CV. Now that we know smoking protects people from CV, this seems to have kept the rate of CV infections lower among Atlantic City workers, who are engulfed in second hand smoke for their entire shifts. Since half the patrons in Atlantic City casinos are smokers there will be less spread of CV in such places where smoking is allowed and where smokers congregate.
“Knowledge is ignorance.” – Winston Smith
Only a few months ago, an "anti-vaxxer" was someone who thought vaccinations, particularly the MMR triple jab, could have unwanted side effects like autism or worse. The exemplar was Andrew Wakefield, a doctor struck off apparently for maintaining this view too vocally.
Now, perfectly healthy young Australian rugby players are being denigrated by a Guardian news (not opinion) writer for refusing a flu vaccination, something which in the UK is only offered to people over 60 or with conditions making them vulnerable.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/may/08/coronavirus-australia-live-news-national-cabinet-scott-morrison-nsw-victoria-lockdown-economy-latest-updatesThe Guardian view, by one Ben Smee, writing as a news journalistElsewhere, tennis no 1 Novak Djokovic is apparently an "anti-vaxxer" for saying he doesn't want to take a coronavirus jab which hasn't been developed yet, and may never be. Even RT is getting the Guardian bug.
https://www.rt.com/sport/487957-nadal-djokovic-coronavirus-vaccination/It strikes me that vaccinations are getting more virulent, rapidly evolving from "recommended" to "mandatory".Replies: @S. Anonyia, @jsm, @Morton's toes
“virulent”… That’s good!
But, yeah, vaccines “jumped the shark” when they started insisting on HepB for newborns just out of the birth canal (even those of HepB-neg mothers and those without clotting disorders or any other reason to think they’ll need blood transfusions anytime soon.)
So what was the rationale? Well, some of these tiny babes may become 14 y o hookers someday, so let’s jab ’em now while it’s convenient. Convenient. No kidding. “Jab ’em if ya got ’em.”
Nail salons should be closed anyway. They are just a scam by which foreigners take huge amounts of money from our women for a service that has little or no value.
Is the U S. not the craziest nation on the planet? That's why we love it so much. God bless us.Replies: @dfordoom, @AnotherDad
That’s getting a bit too close for my liking to “everything I personally don’t like or approve of should be banned.” Why not let women decide for themselves if they want to go to a nail salon or not?
Who knew …donuts are essential? Something like cardio training…not so much. Strange world we live in.
….the phrase, “just off the boat” springs to mind.
Hey, the NYC data convincingly indicates that home is the most dangerous place to catch the bug. Let's tell everybody they should sleep under bridges with hobos. This is becoming such a farce.Replies: @fish
All Newsome is doing is preening for November after Gropenfuhrer Biden is given the boot. He needs California quiet….a rebound outbreak would hurt him badly.
Expect nothing that makes him look bad.
“Is It Safer to Visit a Coffee Shop or a Gym?”
Either is safer than a Chuck E. Cheese in the inner city.
As of this morning, NVSS website shows 45,632 covid19 deaths. They’re either >2 weeks behind, or nobody has a clue. Silly me, when I go to the doctor, he goes on his computer and logs everything in real time into what I assumed was the famous national medical data system. But apparently, the official federal agency in charge of counting deaths is still using the old system where you cut the death certificate form out of the back of the WebMD magazine in the waiting room and mail it in with a stamp and $10, and they will record the death and send you x-ray glasses and a gag N-95 mask laced with itching powder. So what kind of knowledge do we expect to glean from them that would result in any use at all for critical real-time decision making? Since the meat processing plants have been ordered to stay open, it would be much more beneficial to invest in AI systems that could synthesize dynamic decision algorithms based on 3D Finite Element Analysis of sheep entrails.
“I just want to remind everybody of that and that I’m very worried about that,” Newsom said.”
Why do politicians keep talking about their personal fears? They are, in effect, reminding us that we messed up by electing a coward and would be far better off if we had elected someone with more courage.
Because "my feelze" appeals to over half of the voters.
Going to the nail salon is probably one of the most risky activities. You’re physically touching/getting touched repeatedly, you’re sharing an air pocket and you’re in close face to face proximity.
coupleofmen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Open-Sea-Cruises-New-European-Gay-Cruise-5.jpg?w=1196&h=795&ssl=1
https://anthonyschumann.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/42-15332587.jpgReplies: @Lot, @Lugash, @CCZ
Every cruise ship on the planet should be considered a plague vector and sunk by the nearest navy.
If you sink them in reasonably shallow water, they can make good a breakwater and/or reef. Terrific diving locations.
But i think that's underutilization. Instead of these subsides, the EU should hire all these unused boats. Have them pick up migrants in Libya, then make a nice slow cruise down to Lagos--AC off-- where the migrants would be disembarked. Sail back and repeat.
I appreciate that not everyone has my privilege (risk profile) and so others must choose to stay at home and all that, but it is worth pointing out that many seem desperate to make me suffer the consequences of their lack of similar privilege.
Perhaps I should have surgery to give me diabetes so that we can have more social justice?Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon, @res, @AnotherDad
Which data shows that?
Good point….healthy people under the age of 55 have little to worry about, and will have mild symptoms if infected…thus they are not likely to get tested and it will be difficult to estimate the infections spread in an establishment with mostly young clientele.
A gym which caters to young people may appear safer than the gym with more elderly boomers , because the elderly are more likely to get tested and hospitalized. The demographics is the key factor. The elderly should probably stay away from gyms and nail salons to be safe.
In gyms, there are many things people grab and touch with their hands. Keeping all that equipment disinfected may be a bridge too far, and additionally, I would think that it’s much more difficult to avoid touching thy face with thy hands when exercising and sweating, than it is when drinking coffee.
That said, already for a long time I have been very uncomfortable and unhappy with the way the baristas routinely manhandle the lid for my coffee cup at places like Starbutts, or any drive-through.
Of course, the main risks most likely are are incurred while being in a confined indoor space, where there may be many potentially contaminated surfaces in addition to who knows how many airborne particles from coughs, sneezing, talking, and basic respiration.
Speaking of coffee, some of the tests of materials suitable for homemade face masks found that coffee filters work pretty well because they are not woven, but some people apparently have difficulty breathing through coffee filters.
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-diy-coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-covid/
The CDC began recommending face masks on Apr. 3, 2020, and its original homemade face mask page included a design incorporating a coffee filter – Bandana Face Covering (no sew method) – but that was removed in short order by about April 9th, and now you have to use the Wayback machine to find it.
Or, visit this website, which has the original CDC instructions:
https://www.healthline.com/health/how-to-make-a-face-mask-with-filter#materials-needed
I have incorporated coffee filters into my homemade mask designs, all of which make breathing more difficult but certainly not impossible.
For fabric, hold it up to the sun. I found an old pair of very heavy sweat pants I seldom wore, but which the sunlight could not penetrate through two layers. I put a coffee filter between the two layers, and devised a strap going around the back of my head rather than rubber bands around the ears, which I found to be uncomfortable and slightly painful.
For coffee, I stay home and make my own. For exercise, I ride my bike.
I didn’t get to the beach yesterday as i took pretty good sun–low tide was around 1–the previous day. But back then there were five of them parked off the coast.
If you sink them in reasonably shallow water, they can make good a breakwater and/or reef. Terrific diving locations.
But i think that’s underutilization. Instead of these subsides, the EU should hire all these unused boats. Have them pick up migrants in Libya, then make a nice slow cruise down to Lagos–AC off– where the migrants would be disembarked. Sail back and repeat.
Nail salons should be closed anyway. They are just a scam by which foreigners take huge amounts of money from our women for a service that has little or no value.
Is the U S. not the craziest nation on the planet? That's why we love it so much. God bless us.Replies: @dfordoom, @AnotherDad
Please gals, just go to the gym instead.
“Every bit of social distancing hurts and none of it helps.”
If the goal is herd immunity you are correct. But misanthropes should still follow the advice of the voice in their head. Epidemiologists using the term “herd immunity” should give one pause. We should be wary of doctors who inhabit government bureaucracies. I enjoy smelling hair. Am I Joe Biden?
I don’t get get you at all anymore, steve.
I mean, didn’t you learn ANYTHING from your cancer?
No one-NO ONE- gets out of life alive.
NO ONE.
Sacrificing how you live, out of fear of death, is the one sure way to waste your precious, limited, time on this earth.
Cruise ships have always been hotbeds of disease. But they do serve a useful purpose: moron identification.
“Which data (show smaller chance of my dying from Covid than flu)”?
In the study linked below, re 2009 severe flu, 5% of hospitalized patients were age 65 and older. Younger people were vulnerable. It took 30 seconds to find this..That is the extent of my research, to answer your request for data.
Covid has a unique constellation of hazard ratios. The principal comorbidities are hypertension, obesity, and diabetes. This information is often being filtered by political correctness. Maybe instead of having a nail salon in every strip mall, there should be a clinic to finally treat these comorbidities.
But I doubt this will happen, because nail salons and hairdressers are crucial for women, not frivolities. Most men know that they could win the Nobel prize but that would not excite as much domestic enthusiasm as a visit to the nail salon.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4202977/
I'm happy you are so brilliant it only took you 30 seconds to find that paper. The problem is, it is from 2014 and says nothing about COVID-19.
Let's try again. With some more explicit questions.
1. What risk do you consider yourself to have from COVID-19?
2. What risk do you consider yourself to have from the seasonal flu?
3. What references do you have to support those numbers?
At this point I am pretty sure you are someone who knows very little and is just spouting off about "show smaller chance of my dying from Covid than flu", but I would be happy to be proven wrong.
I was scoutmaster of my son's troop back then and had 40+ boys at summer camp that year. The camp was on alert to the risk, any signs of outbreak. I was monitoring my guys with asthma. (Didn't have any issues.) That fall my niece got really sick in her freshman dorm and had to bail out and come home--was quite sick for a couple weeks. I believe there was a fair amount of that.
But this is not typical of "seasonal flu". Seasonal has a different profile from the Wuhan special. Elderly and little kids tend to be most at risk. The deaths mostly elderly need-to-die-of-something folks. But the seasonal flu mortality of young adults is close to zero. You get sick--or don't even get very sick. You often can't tell if you've got "the flu" or "a cold" ... then you're better in a week.
Steve, i know–or at least assume–you pass these sorts of comments through just to show you’re fair minded and willing to tolerate criticism even abuse.
And, i think overall that’s the right policy–let people who disagree with your rage on. Occasionally we even learn from them. But i think the key concept is “content”. Some sort of idea or argument–even a wild flyer, but something.
A few of these young “it’s just the flu, bro” guys have simply lost it. Maybe they are just mentally weak? Maybe they can’t figure out any corona game? Maybe their girlfriends decided they didn’t want to social-distance with them? Heck if i know.
In any case, when it’s just this sort of contentless abuse, i don’t think it’s a net positive to let it through. Yes, it shows that you’re open and fair minded. But it also makes the blog look trashier. (I like to think we’re a cleverer–and certainly wiser–bunch than that.) No one really wants to watch some ill-bred moron demonstrate he’s an ill bred moron. Or–generously–someone who’s not an ill-bred moron have a public meltdown that reflects poorly on his character.
Anon, so, Gov. Awesome is almost, but not quite, a xenophobic racist to mention the flu and you know, Asians. Are there nail shops run by anyone but Asians?
prosa, at my gym the treadmills, stationary bikes and ellipticals are maybe two feet apart and not every sweaty user is kind enough to wipe down the equipment when finished.
Straws. I’m going long on straws. Not plastic ones, the impregnated paper ones. Who makes straws? Anyone here in America? No? They’re made in China too? So every bit of protective gear, every ameliorating item is made in China?
We’re trapped in a maze. The white lab-coated experimenters are laughing as they look down on us through the plexiglas ceiling, waging bets on who of us will crack first as it dawns on us that there is No Exit.Replies: @Buffalo Joe
Three Cranes, and California was one of the first to ban straws and single use cups, but then the coffee shops didn’t want to handle your personal thermos cup and back to square one we go. California also banned the cardboard type cup you get at 7-11 because there is a thin plastic film on the inside so they can’t recycle. I wonder if when schools reopen will the hallway water fountains will be gone.
I agree with you that his comment was stupid.
But I don’t agree that the people criticizing the lockdown are “weak”. It’s funny how our normal assumptions have been inverted: people who want everyone hide away at home for months are being “serious” and “strong”, but people who are getting mad about that, and want to go about their normal lives, are “weak” or “cowardly”.
Whenever someone gives you an "You know, X is really not-X, if you think about it right", run. You are facing a Phoenician and/or libertarian who wants to persuade you of something obviously false, by appealing to your "lone wolf" ahead of the crowd nerdism.
Unemployment insurance causes poverty. Medical insurance causes illness.
“Our utter incompetence actually helps us,” declared Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI Peter Strzok to his paramour
Strong, serious people shelter in place from the flu.
I'm absolutely not saying people criticizing the lockdown are weak. I've thought from the beginning that it's a respiratory disease, so you mask up in public to wallop the spread and buy time to figure out how bad it is, the right treatments, get to summer etc. etc. Closing clubs and concerts and various mouth breathing activities was not unreasonable. But the scale of this--closing everything up--seems over the top to me. And this attack on going to the park, beaches, forests, golf! ... is just flat out insane.
Criticizing all this, being mad about it, raging about it--fine and dandy. I'll save my rage for the minoritarian--"diversity is our greatest strength", "nation of immigrants"--people actually trying to genocide my people. But hey, you want to be enraged by this--ok.
What is weak, is being unable to contain and focus your mental power to make any kind of argument, but just spewing stupid low-class invective at our host providing a forum for discussion of the issue. Strong minds bring something to the table.
JSOM could just be a leftist whose purpose here is to disrupt any authentic discussion and overshadow less extreme viewpoints (Cf. “Nazis” at Charlottesville.) Not sure why you take him at face value, and not sure why you lump in others, who are making valid criticisms, in with him. I guess we can chalk it up to Boomer Fragility. And yes, everyone on the internet is exactly what they claim to be. Now go check your spam mail because you may have just won ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!!
Yes, knowledge is good. The real problem is to determine what exactly knowledge about any particular matter consists of. (Yes, like dangling participles, good or bad?)
With the Wuhan Fle, what has been trumpeted as knowledge has changed drastically over the past three months or so. Old advice bad, new advice good. Maybe.
I believe that caution was advisable early on. Now more data is in and while it is hardly satisfactory, we do have better insight. As to risks and transmission, severity, treatments, etc.
Given the “new knowledge” such as it is, it is obvious that risks need to be individually chosen for most, not mandated. NY Governor Cuomo appeared stunned when he announced that 2/3’s of the NY flu positives had been living at home. So much for shutting down sports, movie theaters, restaurants.
Single family suburban homes might be safer than crowded NYC multi generational apartments. Imagine that.
It is time to — with some cautions — return to the American Way of letting each person choose their own risk levels. Depression economics gets very bad, very quickly. That gets very unhealthy. If politicians declaring “mandates” were all forced to live on the average unemployment benefit in their state, I think we’d have “new knowledge” about actual risks and choices. And no health insurance other than Medicaid. No pensions, nada. Let them live like the serfs they think we are.
At the gym my exercise of choice is full court 5 on 5 basketball.
You can’t wear a mask doing that.
I’m pretty sure me and the guys are screwed until this time next year.
Come to think of it, you can’t wear a mask while swimming either.
Temporarily remove some of the treadmills and other equipment so there’ll be enough distancing. Users should wipe down the equipment before they start rather than trust the prior users.
Gyms and locker rooms are petri dishes for spreading pathogens with a bunch of people sharing equipment, breathing heavily, and spotting each other for heavy lifts.
Funny you should mention water fountains. When I was a kid there were water fountains everywhere, in every public building, at every gas station, public park and department store—on every floor no less. And now they are nowhere to be seen. Wha’ happen?
On the other hand, bottled “mineral” and spritz water are to be found for sale everywhere.
We’ve changed from a public service to a private profit mentality.
One good reason to wish for a hugely destructive war is that it would wash all this petty private gain stuff out of the system. In times of belt-tightening crisis, purely private gain is squelched. We become more socialistic because it’s cheaper and more efficient to provide for the herd from one source than to cater to each private “need” with an individual portion.
No public fountains, but a single portion sized serving packaged in plastic (which must be disposed of) that is delivered to the site of sale on an energy guzzling truck. Lotsa extra make-work so we have no free time to reflect or grow. We are insane. And stupid.
An American entrepreneur I follow on Twitter flew to South Korea recently with his Asian (American?) wife and they bused him from the airport to a quarantine hotel where he and his wife couldn't leave their hotel room for two weeks. They got random fast food delivered to them a few times per day and were given instructions about how to dispose of their waste.
We're 7 weeks into a lock down in much of America and we'd probably have had fewer deaths with a shorter lock down if we:
- Stopped domestic flights out of the New York area in mid-March.
- Stopped all foreign arrivals except for returning citizens and residents and required those to quarantine for 14 days.
- Didn't send COVID-19 patients to nursing homes with non-COVID-19 patients, and instead segregated the infected from the non-infected.Replies: @BenKenobi, @Redman
I’m afraid I can’t let you do that, Dave.
All of your reasonable suggestions are racist, and racism is worse than the virus.
Why do politicians keep talking about their personal fears? They are, in effect, reminding us that we messed up by electing a coward and would be far better off if we had elected someone with more courage.Replies: @anon
Why do politicians keep talking about their personal fears
Because “my feelze” appeals to over half of the voters.
What’s safe? Haven’t you heard? Nothing is safe. Millions are dying. The hospitals are overwhelmed. They are setting up tent hospitals in the parking lots but it’s still not enough. Patients are being left to die in the hallways because there aren’t enough lifesaving ventilators to go around. Bodies are being buried in mass graves in public parks.
Obey your television and stay home.
An American entrepreneur I follow on Twitter flew to South Korea recently with his Asian (American?) wife and they bused him from the airport to a quarantine hotel where he and his wife couldn't leave their hotel room for two weeks. They got random fast food delivered to them a few times per day and were given instructions about how to dispose of their waste.
We're 7 weeks into a lock down in much of America and we'd probably have had fewer deaths with a shorter lock down if we:
- Stopped domestic flights out of the New York area in mid-March.
- Stopped all foreign arrivals except for returning citizens and residents and required those to quarantine for 14 days.
- Didn't send COVID-19 patients to nursing homes with non-COVID-19 patients, and instead segregated the infected from the non-infected.Replies: @BenKenobi, @Redman
<"Didn’t send COVID-19 patients to nursing homes with non-COVID-19 patients, and instead segregated the infected from the non-infected."<
This is the one issue that really gets me. We knew (or suspected) early on that CV19 was really going after old people, basically 65 and older but even more so the 85 and older cohort. Why was the plan to protect these people not more cogent and organized? This should have been the top priority of state and local governments from the beginning. Maybe there was a lot of unavoidable chaos and confusion in the beginning, but the scandal with the NY nursing homes seems unacceptable.
At the time of the 1968 Hong Kong Flu, which killed about 100,000 (mostly older) Americans, the country had about 19.6M people over 65. In 2018 we had about 52.3M people 65 or older.
In 1968, we had 928K people over 85. In 2018 we had about 6.5M people over 85. Almost a factor of 7 greater.
That's a lot more older folks with limited immune systems by 2020; definitely a soft target if there ever was one for any novel virus.
I agree that comments should be more substantial than “F you boomer” or whatever. But when you call those that you disagree with mentally weak and imply that they can’t get laid, you’re not really making an argument either. You’re just insulting people in a more clever way.
As i said twice, the issue is not agreement but content.
Contentless abuse--especially of our host, who is offering a platform and not insulting people--adds no value. That--not disagreement--is what i called mentally weak and what i insulted.
I think it was Max Headroom:
(Should have added that to the earlier comment, but I was distracted.)
I'm about to punch your cat in the mouth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=emb_title&v=j-urfohXAOo
----------
I'm now realizing that, say, GHW Bush, Dan Quayle, GW Bush, et al, who were mocked for clumsy talk, would make little gaffes in speech which were a function of speech (they'd never make these mistakes writing, even without speechwriters), but you always knew what they were saying. It was like if somebody was discussing Napoleon and at one point he slips up and says Alexander when he clearly meant to say the Corsican. In a more genteel time the press would forgive these errors and we'd never know about them.
But Biden really is objectively incoherent. He's not flubbing one word in an otherwise perfect sentence, his whole sentences are laborious gibberish.Replies: @Neoconned, @Anonymous, @James J. O'Meara
Where does Trump fit on your scale? He seems to be able to communicate in short bursts, each more or less accurate and coherent, but then he jumps to another fragment, etc. He likely makes decisions the same way: who ever he talked to last, or who gets his attention at the right moment.
Bush, Obama (no great shakes without the teleprompter), Trump and now apparently Biden: each winner is successively worse and worse at communicating (even the Great Communicator was senile). Is there an evolutionary reason for this, like the taller candidate winning? Some have suggested that with Reagan and Trump, people are able to project their own dreams on his white noise.
“It’s funny how our normal assumptions have been inverted: people who want everyone hide away at home for months are being “serious” and “strong”, but people who are getting mad about that, and want to go about their normal lives, are “weak” or “cowardly”.”
Whenever someone gives you an “You know, X is really not-X, if you think about it right”, run. You are facing a Phoenician and/or libertarian who wants to persuade you of something obviously false, by appealing to your “lone wolf” ahead of the crowd nerdism.
Unemployment insurance causes poverty. Medical insurance causes illness.
“Our utter incompetence actually helps us,” declared Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI Peter Strzok to his paramour
Strong, serious people shelter in place from the flu.
LOL, virus is in your brain making you deny its existence.
Only in the public space…
Furthermore, let me and everyone like me get it and all that and you’ll all be much more protected.
Probably already had it anyway.
Knowledge is good. But ‘knowledge’ is lame. Either there’s going to be an effective treatment/vaccine or there isn’t. If there isn’t, it will be up to the individual to self-isolate or not, and up to institutions and businesses to set their own requirements for PPE / social distancing.
OCD ‘data’-crunching busywork bugmen won’t have answers when it comes to acceptable density, because each environment is too dynamic. Everyday people (customers, store owners) will have to judge for themselves.Replies: @James J. O'Meara
“OCD ‘data’-crunching busywork bugmen won’t have answers when it comes to acceptable density, because each environment is too dynamic. Everyday people (customers, store owners) will have to judge for themselves.”
Hey, don’t disparage the median iSteve fan. STEM rulez, we don’t need your squishy, anti-Engightenment, Cultural Marxist Frankfurt School liberal arts handwaving here.
The nail treatments are just a front. The main business of nail bars is illegal immigration, modern slavery, prostitution, and money laundering.
I wonder how many nail salons are in close proximity to an Asian massage parlor? More than a few, I wager. Probably just a coincidence.Replies: @moshe
Money-making, I presume.Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
In the UK, doctors get rewarded for hitting their “jab targets”. Maybe its just my GP, but I’ve been refusing statins for ages, and only had the flu jab (and pneumonia) when CV19 was becoming an issue in February. They don’t threaten to take you off the list unless you have it.
They are also rewarded for hitting targets on things like MMR.
“In other words, the governor is presumably violating some rule about privacy of tracing results.”
–
I’m not as generous as you. Did you consider the possibility that the governor is lying his behind off?
… for political gain?
Only a few months ago, an "anti-vaxxer" was someone who thought vaccinations, particularly the MMR triple jab, could have unwanted side effects like autism or worse. The exemplar was Andrew Wakefield, a doctor struck off apparently for maintaining this view too vocally.
Now, perfectly healthy young Australian rugby players are being denigrated by a Guardian news (not opinion) writer for refusing a flu vaccination, something which in the UK is only offered to people over 60 or with conditions making them vulnerable.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/may/08/coronavirus-australia-live-news-national-cabinet-scott-morrison-nsw-victoria-lockdown-economy-latest-updatesThe Guardian view, by one Ben Smee, writing as a news journalistElsewhere, tennis no 1 Novak Djokovic is apparently an "anti-vaxxer" for saying he doesn't want to take a coronavirus jab which hasn't been developed yet, and may never be. Even RT is getting the Guardian bug.
https://www.rt.com/sport/487957-nadal-djokovic-coronavirus-vaccination/It strikes me that vaccinations are getting more virulent, rapidly evolving from "recommended" to "mandatory".Replies: @S. Anonyia, @jsm, @Morton's toes
Good for Djoko but tennis needs him more than he needs tennis so he has leverage. There’s about 7 billion others of us who don’t.
But I doubt this will happen, because nail salons and hairdressers are crucial for women, not frivolities. Most men know that they could win the Nobel prize but that would not excite as much domestic enthusiasm as a visit to the nail salon.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4202977/Replies: @res, @AnotherDad
If you want to have a real conversation please reply to my comments to make it easier to follow the thread.
I’m happy you are so brilliant it only took you 30 seconds to find that paper. The problem is, it is from 2014 and says nothing about COVID-19.
Let’s try again. With some more explicit questions.
1. What risk do you consider yourself to have from COVID-19?
2. What risk do you consider yourself to have from the seasonal flu?
3. What references do you have to support those numbers?
At this point I am pretty sure you are someone who knows very little and is just spouting off about “show smaller chance of my dying from Covid than flu”, but I would be happy to be proven wrong.
I appreciate that not everyone has my privilege (risk profile) and so others must choose to stay at home and all that, but it is worth pointing out that many seem desperate to make me suffer the consequences of their lack of similar privilege.
Perhaps I should have surgery to give me diabetes so that we can have more social justice?Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon, @res, @AnotherDad
UK, i’m not wildly off from your overall sentiment that you ought to be free to make your own decision. I think mandatory masking for indoor public venues–transportation, courthouse, library, etc.–plus critical facilities–grocery stores and medical–and the rest you can essentially let private businesses and individuals sort out the risks they want to take.
However, the idea that your risk from the Wuhan special–even as a young healthy person–is less than the “seasonal flu” is–i think–off base.
There are years when something new–or new to most of the population–pops where it’s both pretty severe and peoples’ immune systems aren’t up to speed. (The Asian flu when i was a mere pup was pretty deadly; apparently managed to kick off pneumonia without secondary infection.) But the typical seasonal “flu death” toll is a joke. It’s pneumonia deaths of anyone who had symptoms of a typical cold/flu. They don’t test for flu. Those CDC numbers are even more inflated than this thing. And people who die of the seasonal flu–in this day and age with antibiotics to treat pneumonia–are almost all people who really just needed something to die from.
In contrast, the Wuhan special actually does kill a–very tiny, but non-zero–number of younger people who get a big dose–mostly medical workers so far–where their immune system freaks into a cytokine storm. Less chance of that for say a 30 year old than being killed in an auto accident, but more than a typical seasonal flu.
Note, i’m not saying you shouldn’t invite all your friends, some positive folks and get Chinese takeout for a big Wuhan party. Just saying it isn’t flat out zero. The regular seasonal flu for a healthy young person pretty much is zero.
It is funny because a lot of people are convinced a vaccine is coming in 18 months. Not only is this a very long period of time and one in which the world can be completely unmade, but it is also far from certain.
So, the plan is: lockdown for a couple more months, and then daily testing and track and trace forever.... we'll all going to die of something else in the meantime. I suppose it'd be absolutely storybook if somehow the cotton swab used for testing turned out to be the vector for a new deeply lethal disease. It would serve as a perfect metaphor for how we seem to be set on killing ourselves.
Nonetheless, I feel it will work out and that things will lift soon. We overeact, but we generally find our footing eventually, and the overeaction has been useful in many ways too.
I agree you 314. My comment was insufficiently clear–as they sometimes are, a few people have misinterpreted another recent comment of mine–if that’s the impression you drew.
I’m absolutely not saying people criticizing the lockdown are weak. I’ve thought from the beginning that it’s a respiratory disease, so you mask up in public to wallop the spread and buy time to figure out how bad it is, the right treatments, get to summer etc. etc. Closing clubs and concerts and various mouth breathing activities was not unreasonable. But the scale of this–closing everything up–seems over the top to me. And this attack on going to the park, beaches, forests, golf! … is just flat out insane.
Criticizing all this, being mad about it, raging about it–fine and dandy. I’ll save my rage for the minoritarian–“diversity is our greatest strength”, “nation of immigrants”–people actually trying to genocide my people. But hey, you want to be enraged by this–ok.
What is weak, is being unable to contain and focus your mental power to make any kind of argument, but just spewing stupid low-class invective at our host providing a forum for discussion of the issue. Strong minds bring something to the table.
But I doubt this will happen, because nail salons and hairdressers are crucial for women, not frivolities. Most men know that they could win the Nobel prize but that would not excite as much domestic enthusiasm as a visit to the nail salon.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4202977/Replies: @res, @AnotherDad
2009 H1N1 was not remotely typical of a seasonal flu. H1N1 seems to be able to hit young people pretty hard. (An H1N1 virus caused the 1918 “Spanish” flu epidemic.)
I was scoutmaster of my son’s troop back then and had 40+ boys at summer camp that year. The camp was on alert to the risk, any signs of outbreak. I was monitoring my guys with asthma. (Didn’t have any issues.) That fall my niece got really sick in her freshman dorm and had to bail out and come home–was quite sick for a couple weeks. I believe there was a fair amount of that.
But this is not typical of “seasonal flu”. Seasonal has a different profile from the Wuhan special. Elderly and little kids tend to be most at risk. The deaths mostly elderly need-to-die-of-something folks. But the seasonal flu mortality of young adults is close to zero. You get sick–or don’t even get very sick. You often can’t tell if you’ve got “the flu” or “a cold” … then you’re better in a week.
Buffet restaurants will be tough to re-open. Soup Plantation owns 100 buffet restaurants and they declared today that they are out of cash and will not reopen them. What a shame, I have eaten there many times. The also operate as Sweet Tomatoes. They are (were) primarily a soup and salad restaurant. Health oriented. They will be missed by me!
And their press release says they have been spending millions this past year to spiff up and upgrade their restaurants.
Hey, don't disparage the median iSteve fan. STEM rulez, we don't need your squishy, anti-Engightenment, Cultural Marxist Frankfurt School liberal arts handwaving here.Replies: @Steve Sailer
“OCD ‘data’-crunching busywork bugmen won’t have answers when it comes to acceptable density, because each environment is too dynamic. Everyday people (customers, store owners) will have to judge for themselves.” — Jenner Ickham Errican
OK, but the state of California is evidently sitting on a huge pile of track-and-trace data that would allow everyday people to make better informed judgments for themselves. Why do you want to keep this knowledge from the public?
Basically, in public or at work, wear appropriate PPE and practice instinctual social distancing and you’ll probably be okay. Avoid certain places entirely if “nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”
Regarding your question “Is It Safer to Visit a Coffee Shop or a Gym?” the answer is: Who cares?—The question is moot, because it is unanswerable. If you feel safe going, go. If not, stay away. Look at the gun control ‘debate’—both sides have the same data, but fear of guns, or affinity for guns, drives positions. One person’s shocking data is another person’s “meh.”Replies: @Steve Sailer
Along with all the banks, post offices and fast-food I actually mystery-shopped about a dozen NYC health clubs. They were pretty upscale and emphasized cleanliness, but even so let’s just say I still much prefer to work out at home. If you have some handweights and room to swing your arms you don’t need a gym right now
The nail treatments are just a front. The main business of nail bars is illegal immigration, modern slavery, prostitution, and money laundering.
I wonder how many nail salons are in close proximity to an Asian massage parlor? More than a few, I wager. Probably just a coincidence.
You are correct about the nail salons and that is because it is where Chinese massage parlor girls continue their enslavement when they grow too old for the sexiness trade.
The whole story is A LOT more interesting than that and includes horribly inhumane scams perpetrated by Chinese Americans and Arab Billionaires but so far as nail salons and massage parlors go, yes, there very often is a connection, as you surmised.
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P.S. Whatever happened to enjoying Exotica because bit was exotic, mind-expanding, interesting, joyous,,,,? Screw all this moralism, special pleading, advocating and worrying. There's a place for all that but it's come to overtake the entire field of human intellectual/emotional/social inquiry as hobby and pleasure. My Chinese Massage Parlor inquiries fall into that category as does most of what I do, read and write. The world is beautiful and curious. And, to me, humans are the most beautiful and curious of all. Exploring opaque human communities is just awe-some. You don't need q profit or fame motive to enjoy it.
Three Cranes, a local businessman is remodeling a former car dealership into a retail shop for his own use. The Town, where we both reside, made him put in a regular water fountain and a ADA accessible fountain next to it. He could have made a bottle of cold water available to any customer who asked (high end store) and saved money.
coupleofmen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Open-Sea-Cruises-New-European-Gay-Cruise-5.jpg?w=1196&h=795&ssl=1
https://anthonyschumann.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/42-15332587.jpgReplies: @Lot, @Lugash, @CCZ
Study finds evidence of coronavirus in semen.
Je Suis Omar Mateen has just put on the Ignore list.
Asian nail salons (mostly Vietnamese from what I have seen) are absolutely filthy under the best of conditions. They have a completely different model of service from traditional American salons, though they now outnumber them 100 to 1.
In American style nail salons, U-shaped stickers are placed around the finger forming a halo of sorts around the end of the finger. Then acrylic powder is moistened and painted directly on the fingernail. Once dry, the form sticker is removed and the nail is filed into shape. For a skilled beautician this will take 2 hours, but even a mediocre nail artist could take 3 hours or more due to having created too wide or thick of a fake nail.
Asian nail salons use plastic stick-on nails about 1/2 the size of a Lee press-on nail. In order to get the plastic nail to stick, they deliberately rough up your real fingernail with circular electric files, sending tons of human DNA into the air. Then, they push your natural cuticle back toward your wrist forcefully and with sharp tools almost always causing bleeding. The sharp tools are kept in some kind of barbicide, but the brush used to paint the acrylic powder over the plastic glued on nails is NOT kept in barbicide. And blood transfer gets into the powder itself. This is standard procedure. After about 1 hour, you end up with a much thicker (fake looking) dirty set of nails.
When I was growing up my mom had a professional come to our home to smoke and laugh and do her nails beautifully- always took at least 3 hours. Now I wouldn’t even know where to find a Caucasian nail salon. Luckily I don’t seek that service.
Another thing with the Asian style nails is that there is almost always fungal growth between the real nail and the fake nail. That was never the case with my mother’s elegantly sculpted nails.
They are disgusting and should be permanently shut down for such blatant health risks.
However, the idea that your risk from the Wuhan special--even as a young healthy person--is less than the "seasonal flu" is--i think--off base.
There are years when something new--or new to most of the population--pops where it's both pretty severe and peoples' immune systems aren't up to speed. (The Asian flu when i was a mere pup was pretty deadly; apparently managed to kick off pneumonia without secondary infection.) But the typical seasonal "flu death" toll is a joke. It's pneumonia deaths of anyone who had symptoms of a typical cold/flu. They don't test for flu. Those CDC numbers are even more inflated than this thing. And people who die of the seasonal flu--in this day and age with antibiotics to treat pneumonia--are almost all people who really just needed something to die from.
In contrast, the Wuhan special actually does kill a--very tiny, but non-zero--number of younger people who get a big dose--mostly medical workers so far--where their immune system freaks into a cytokine storm. Less chance of that for say a 30 year old than being killed in an auto accident, but more than a typical seasonal flu.
Note, i'm not saying you shouldn't invite all your friends, some positive folks and get Chinese takeout for a big Wuhan party. Just saying it isn't flat out zero. The regular seasonal flu for a healthy young person pretty much is zero.Replies: @UK
Fair point. They’re both negligible. And since there’s no particular need for me to see anyone in an at risk category in the foreseeable future, I’d be doing everyone a favour by gaining immunity anyway.
It is funny because a lot of people are convinced a vaccine is coming in 18 months. Not only is this a very long period of time and one in which the world can be completely unmade, but it is also far from certain.
So, the plan is: lockdown for a couple more months, and then daily testing and track and trace forever…. we’ll all going to die of something else in the meantime. I suppose it’d be absolutely storybook if somehow the cotton swab used for testing turned out to be the vector for a new deeply lethal disease. It would serve as a perfect metaphor for how we seem to be set on killing ourselves.
Nonetheless, I feel it will work out and that things will lift soon. We overeact, but we generally find our footing eventually, and the overeaction has been useful in many ways too.
Sorry I’m late to respond… as I wrote earlier,
If California has good data, that applies to the former. Release it with privacy safeguards. But most people already know what’s up, because we generally know what the infection/death rate is. At this point, it’s really just a task of monitoring overall death rates for spikes rather than trying to track and interdict every exposure or obsessively scrutinize restaurant layouts.
Basically, in public or at work, wear appropriate PPE and practice instinctual social distancing and you’ll probably be okay. Avoid certain places entirely if “nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”
Regarding your question “Is It Safer to Visit a Coffee Shop or a Gym?” the answer is: Who cares?—The question is moot, because it is unanswerable. If you feel safe going, go. If not, stay away. Look at the gun control ‘debate’—both sides have the same data, but fear of guns, or affinity for guns, drives positions. One person’s shocking data is another person’s “meh.”
But then of course … i didn’t do that.
As i said twice, the issue is not agreement but content.
Contentless abuse–especially of our host, who is offering a platform and not insulting people–adds no value. That–not disagreement–is what i called mentally weak and what i insulted.
I wonder how many nail salons are in close proximity to an Asian massage parlor? More than a few, I wager. Probably just a coincidence.Replies: @moshe
I’ve investigated this (not for the sake of any do-gooderism but because I investigate anything I find curious).
You are correct about the nail salons and that is because it is where Chinese massage parlor girls continue their enslavement when they grow too old for the sexiness trade.
The whole story is A LOT more interesting than that and includes horribly inhumane scams perpetrated by Chinese Americans and Arab Billionaires but so far as nail salons and massage parlors go, yes, there very often is a connection, as you surmised.
======
P.S. Whatever happened to enjoying Exotica because bit was exotic, mind-expanding, interesting, joyous,,,,? Screw all this moralism, special pleading, advocating and worrying. There’s a place for all that but it’s come to overtake the entire field of human intellectual/emotional/social inquiry as hobby and pleasure. My Chinese Massage Parlor inquiries fall into that category as does most of what I do, read and write. The world is beautiful and curious. And, to me, humans are the most beautiful and curious of all. Exploring opaque human communities is just awe-some. You don’t need q profit or fame motive to enjoy it.
Basically, in public or at work, wear appropriate PPE and practice instinctual social distancing and you’ll probably be okay. Avoid certain places entirely if “nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”
Regarding your question “Is It Safer to Visit a Coffee Shop or a Gym?” the answer is: Who cares?—The question is moot, because it is unanswerable. If you feel safe going, go. If not, stay away. Look at the gun control ‘debate’—both sides have the same data, but fear of guns, or affinity for guns, drives positions. One person’s shocking data is another person’s “meh.”Replies: @Steve Sailer
If you feel safe going, go. If not, stay away.
This is a new germ that nobody heard of before New Year’s Eve. It’s not like we have the Wisdom of the Ages to draw upon regarding it. The more knowledge we have, the more accurate our feelings/judgements will be. Which will be better for the economy, by the way.
A lot of people are choosing to err on the side of caution right now: i.e., not spend money. The more accurate guidance people get, the more they’ll feel good about spending money again.
Bush, Obama (no great shakes without the teleprompter), Trump and now apparently Biden: each winner is successively worse and worse at communicating (even the Great Communicator was senile). Is there an evolutionary reason for this, like the taller candidate winning? Some have suggested that with Reagan and Trump, people are able to project their own dreams on his white noise.Replies: @J.Ross
Trump’s not PG Wodehouse but I don’t think it’s ever happened one time that a person honestly didn’t know what he meant. Trump also has superior timing, wit, and ability to think in his feet compared to the highly educated politicians who still end up flubbing lines. Trump would absolutely mop the floor with Joe if they were allowed to debate.
Ay, there’s the rub (wear gloves). WHO/whom, amirite?
Seriously, though, thanks for replying. We both agree the virus is bad; with unknown outcomes to any particular exposed individual (pun intended). My skepticism, again, is that no usable data is possible regarding environmental exposure in what used to be everyday situations: As of yet, there is no camera that reveals viral particles in the air and on surfaces, and Asian-style track-and-trace smartphone monitoring is unlikely to happen here in the US.
Government, in the case of “coffee shop vs. gym” is too blunt/stupid/biased an instrument to fine-tune “guidance” regarding venue exposure. Despite your best intentions, you’re setting up people for more confusion, rather than less:
See the California beach closings, presumably based on ‘data’.
See MA gov Charlie Baker deem gun stores essential businesses, then under political pressure (allegedly based on ‘data’—domestic violence and accident risks, etc.) deemed non-essential, then be overruled by a federal judge, but only under sales-rate restrictions as arbitrarily decided by that judge regardless of store size and customer flow, etc.
When the S/N ratio of data is no better than 1:1, chuck ‘data’ and stick to principles, with a strong bias towards freedom rather than ‘safety’.
As to your concern about discretionary consumer spending—don’t worry about it. The ‘herd’ will figure it out: If, over time, Joe and Jane consumer don’t know anyone dying of COVID-19, they will become more confident and hit up that reopened brewery joint. But if people in Joe and Jane’s circle start dying or stroking out, J&J will stick to essential purchases only. It’s that simple. Yes, some businesses may never come back. That’s life (and death).
Embrace the uncertainty and have all your affairs in order. As I wrote before, “Every day is Anything Can Happen Day”: With the inscrutable Chinese virus lurking, the average American ‘normie’ understands this a little better than before. Some are freaked out by deadly uncertainty, others not so much. Do you feel lucky?
Asian-style track-and-trace smartphone monitoring is unlikely to happen here in the US.
But A). It has happened in Asia, so let’s learn from it.
B). Track and trace has been successfully carried out the old-fashioned way for thousands of cases in the US, so can we have access to this data to try to learn from it? Gov. Newsom clearly has access to a single data point — the first known instance of community spread in California involved a nail salon. I don’t expect him to be a statistician, but I would like him to let people who are more quantitatively analytic have at this lode of information that hie is cherrypicking.
“See the California beach closings, presumably based on ‘data’.”
No. Nobody has ever cited any data supporting the beach closings. I keep asking for examples from track and trace around the world of transmission on a beach to see if there is even anecdata in support of beach closings.
“Some are freaked out by deadly uncertainty, others not so much.”
And quite a few people find that a high degree of deadly uncertainty tends to depress their Urge to Splurge, which is bad for the economy. The more deadly uncertainty can be reduced by simple things like sorting activities into 80/20 piles (this 20% of activities is responsible for 80% of infections), the faster consumer confidence will return.
It seems to work where it is required. Do you advocate mandatory smartphone monitoring in America (i.e. location tracking of all individuals)?
https://www.zdnet.com/article/singapore-turns-to-businesses-to-bolster-contact-tracing-efforts
Old-fashioned contact tracing against such a contagious virus doesn’t fill me with confidence. Seems like a lot of busywork tracking down unreliable witnesses, if you can find them, combined with half-assed ‘monitoring’:
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/07/thousands-of-disease-detectives-preparing-to-trace-spread-of-coronavirus-in-california
If it exists, and is accurate, by all means… until then, lets call it Schrödinger’s data pile.
I stand corrected.
Surly surfers should protest with signs reading “Where’s the DATA, bitch?”
Ah, well that one is easy: If true, then yes the economy will suffer. Some stuff is kaput, like movie theaters. Pending an effective treatment or vaccine, them’s the breaks.
But I think your tentative 80/20 piles-suffering crowd, the Clubmen, are numerically marginal, at best, compared to the rest (alas, I have no data).
If allowed by the states, death-defying Cavaliers will gallivant and spend, if only out of sheer boredom. Roundheads will hunker down and social distance at pike’s length until a miracle cure happens. The economy probably won’t collapse.
Of course, Anything Can Happen. America holds at Stage 2 of the SSSoR.
An eloquent defense of why we should try to remain ignorant.
Look, I totally agree with you that knowledge is good. But I want only quality, comprehensive info. Half-assed info with major omissions is useless, and potentially damaging. Good info, as you’ve admitted in recent posts, is hard to come by (for now). But still, in the face of no cure, you want reassurance. That’s understandable.
Politically and culturally, Singapore is able to institute its now mandatory SafeEntry tracker/gatekeeper. From my earlier ZDNet linked article:Are you willing to write a blog and Twitter post that the United States should mandate the above? Such a policy would could help save lives and reassure never-infected people about working, shopping, having fun.
If you really care about the perceived risk of infection (not to mention actual risk), this kind of control is the only plausible way to get real information (and lock out identified sick people, and also people who ‘recovered,’ yet may relapse and spread the virus).
Of course, there may be some pushback on the whole idea, not least from some commenters here…
Think through what it takes to get discretionary spending humming again: consider a standard middle class splurge expenditure:
Husband: “Let’s invite our friends John and Mary out to dinner at the steakhouse. We’ll pick up the $300 check.”
Wife: “Great idea, I’ll call Mary right now. … Except, I remember Mary saying she was worried about John. He’s ten years older than she is.”
H: “I was just talking to John. He said, and I quote, It’s just the flu, bro.”
W: “Yes … but Mary is pretty worried about him.”
“Well, just call her and ask her.”
“Yes … but she’ll say yes because she doesn’t want to offend me.”
“Good.”
“But she won’t be happy during the dinner.”
“Oh …”
“And John will notice that Mary is worried about him, and he’ll get upset at her.”
“Oh, yeah …”
“So it will probably turn into a scene.”
“Ah … forget it, then. We’ll wait until June to ask them.”
Thank you. Ahem. 🙂
Look, I totally agree with you that knowledge is good. But I want only quality, comprehensive info. Half-assed info with major omissions is useless, and potentially damaging. Good info, as you’ve admitted in recent posts, is hard to come by (for now). But still, in the face of no cure, you want reassurance. That’s understandable.
Politically and culturally, Singapore is able to institute its now mandatory SafeEntry tracker/gatekeeper. From my earlier ZDNet linked article:
Are you willing to write a blog and Twitter post that the United States should mandate the above? Such a policy would could help save lives and reassure never-infected people about working, shopping, having fun.
If you really care about the perceived risk of infection (not to mention actual risk), this kind of control is the only plausible way to get real information (and lock out identified sick people, and also people who ‘recovered,’ yet may relapse and spread the virus).
Of course, there may be some pushback on the whole idea, not least from some commenters here…
I agree. That sounds prudent. June or July.
Imagine if some knobhead bureaucrat puts that same restaurant on a color-coded list—like a Cooper Code of situational risk—at yellow.
Would Mary be willing to trust “yellow”?
Aaaannnd scene. See, Steve, unless you have binary info (SAFE/FIRE), you’re not going to avoid domestic arguments like that.