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How to Spin the Upcoming FBI Crime Stats to Help the Democrats
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The FBI is scheduled to finally release its 2021 crime stats this week, almost nine months after the end of the year.

Fortunately, we have had the CDC’s provisional estimates for 2021 causes of death since July. The FBI tracks murders and the CDC homicides. All murders are homicides but some homicides (e.g., self-defense) are not murders. But the two numbers track pretty closely over time. The CDC tracks the identity of victims but not of perpetrators.

We know from the CDC that homicide deaths were 4.1% higher than in 2020 and 36.0% higher than in 2019: e.g., rather than a homicide spike, we have a homicide plateau, a New Normal.

That should be bad news for the Democrats, but there’s an election coming up, so steps must be taken to provide nuanced perspectives to counter this misinformation.

From the Center for Just Journalism:

Covering Crime Data During Election Season

A Journalist’s Guide to the FBI’s 2021 Crime Statistics

The FBI’s crime data release will come less than two months before a national election in which crime is a politicized issue surrounded by a lot of misinformation. There are several steps journalists can take to inject nuance and context into the conversation about this data:

• Note that the data is old, and highlight what is known about 2022. By the time the FBI releases national crime statistics each year, the data is months out of date.

It’s NOT NEW NEWS, people. Maybe everything is all nice now. Can you prove it’s not? I didn’t think so.

Many local and state police agencies publish reported crime statistics much more regularly, and, if not, the statistics can often be obtained through public records requests, making it possible for journalists in many jurisdictions to include more up-to-date information about their communities’ reported crime trends in their stories.

Place the data in historical and geographic context. ‒ The number of reported crimes will always fluctuate from one year to another, so it is important to compare reported crime rates not just with the previous year but with several other points in the past (i.e. 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 30 years ago, etc.). This is particularly important in 2021, when some politicians claim, and many people believe, that crime is at record highs. While there have been real increases in some types of crime, including some of the most devastating crimes like homicide and other types of gun violence, overall reported crime rates, and even murder rates, in 2020, 2021, and thus far in 2022 have remained well below the historic highs of the 1980s and 1990s.

Likewise, combat deaths in Europe in 2022 are down 97% since 1944, so everything’s good.

‒ The FBI’s national-level crime estimates generate a lot of attention, but local, state, and regional trends are equally important. This additional geographic context helps news consumers understand if a trend is happening across the country or whether increases or decreases in reported crime are concentrated in particular places.

In other words, try to confuse your readers with details.

This type of analysis is also useful for factchecking claims about the link between local policies and crime increases. For example, the fact that the increase in murder in 2020 happened across the country in rural, suburban, and urban areas is critical context to include when public officials blame local increases in gun homicide on a DA’s practices, bail reform, or any other geographically-limited policy.

It’s almost as if the national Establishment lost their collective minds after the death of George Floyd and declared “the racial reckoning,” which unleashed carnage across America. Vote Democratic!

Anyway, homicides were up from 2019 to 2021 by 43% in Large Central Metros while up 17% in the most rural category: NonCore (Nonmetro).

By the way, this year, there will be even more missing data than usual in the FBI stats because of a bureaucratic change 25 years in the making. This involves an epistemological controversy over the best way to handle crimes in which more than one offense was committed. The FBI started many decades ago using a bureaucratically simpler but less informative methodology, then introduced a more complex approach in the 1990s, asking local police departments to voluntarily switch. Finally, in 2016 it announced that all data had to be reported via the newer system by 2021. But lots of police forces, such as the LAPD, just haven’t gotten around to it.

Many will assume, not unreasonably, that this fiasco is a racial-political conspiracy. But my impression is that cops mostly just don’t like thinking hard about data. In Bill Bratton’s memoir The Profession, it appears he was able to create his famous CompStat system in the 1990s because he could find, out of the tens of thousands of NYPD cops, exactly six who liked playing around with computers and data. So once cops have a good-enough system running, they are loathe to change it just to improve data quality.

So the FBI will fill in even more of the missing data with plausible guesses this year than in the past. The numbers aren’t going to be useless this year, but they will be less reliable for measuring year to year changes than in the past. On the other hand, all other data suggests that 2021 was pretty much a continuation of the ugly New Normal that emerged in the second quarter of 2020 with covid and the George Floyd “racial reckoning.”

Here’s my write-up of last year’s FBI murder stats.

 
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  1. Note that the data is old, and highlight what is known about 2022

    Capitol Hill insurrections are down 100% in 2022!

    • LOL: Redneck farmer, J1234
    • Replies: @Tiny Duck
    @International Jew

    I know your joking but there is some thurth here.

    Most violent crime occurs in red conservative states.

    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!

    Replies: @International Jew, @Muggles, @J1234, @Prester John

  2. Frequently, and even more so in their descent to blatant political thuggery and baseless intimidation, the FBI are decried as requiring termination. Whenever this widely-held opinion comes up, I usually put in that we ought to keep the FBI’s collection of national crime statistics from local law enforcement. I guess I was wrong.

    • Replies: @Blodgie
    @J.Ross

    Because the local cops are The Good Guys right but the federal cops are the Bad Guys?

    I’m hoping some of the Tradcons will start to wake up about the reality of law enforcement due to the FBI situation but I’m not optimistic.

    There is an inherent taste for boot leather among most conservatives.

    Replies: @SFG, @J.Ross

  3. You wonder how long the Biden administration (or some future Dem administration) will allow them to collect these.

    • Replies: @HammerJack
    @SFG

    Steve's about the only person I've seen who dares to compare 2021 with 2019—the last year the USA was only partly insane rather than fully insane. Even the Daily Mail is always comparing with the year before.

    Granted even that can make Dem cities look bad, but yeah, it seems we've reached a Carnage Plateau...for now. But wait for the next "event" because the sky's the limit in this business.


    We know from the CDC that homicide deaths were 4.1% higher than in 2020 and 36.0% higher than in 2019: e.g., rather than a homicide spike, we have a homicide plateau, a New Normal.
     
  4. I wonder if any reporter will report, “The crime increase was mostly among darkies, so good, law-abiding whites and Jews have nothing to fear”.

  5. Cops abuse and obfuscate crime data as well to meet their own union goals of either not taking responsibility for rising crime or to get more union goons added to the public payrolls with the high pay and gold plated benefits.

  6. Writing “gun violence” is an unintentional identifier, like “equity.” What a shiny bubble they live in, a shame if reality pops it.

  7. @J.Ross
    Frequently, and even more so in their descent to blatant political thuggery and baseless intimidation, the FBI are decried as requiring termination. Whenever this widely-held opinion comes up, I usually put in that we ought to keep the FBI's collection of national crime statistics from local law enforcement. I guess I was wrong.

    Replies: @Blodgie

    Because the local cops are The Good Guys right but the federal cops are the Bad Guys?

    I’m hoping some of the Tradcons will start to wake up about the reality of law enforcement due to the FBI situation but I’m not optimistic.

    There is an inherent taste for boot leather among most conservatives.

    • Replies: @SFG
    @Blodgie

    The right is usually more accepting of hierarchy and authority.

    , @J.Ross
    @Blodgie

    Local law enforcement might be scum, I don't know, that's on you. National crime statistics are only skewed if most or an awful lot of local law enforcement is not just scum but exactly the same kind of scum.

  8. This can only possibly influence status-striving whites, whose comically vestigial deference to things like newspapers and the evening news (every TV news anchor is the anointed heir and vicar of Walter Cronkite – “good night and good luck!”- who is still important because…. Clooney made a movie about him 2 decades ago… or was that some other guy?) is like people who’ve never stepped foot inside a country club somehow quoting the rule that one mustn’t wear white after Labor Day. These are the sort of a-holes who, even if one met them halfway over the abyss of their insanely racist premise, still could not bring themselves to acknowledge that Kyle Rittenhouse never killed any black people.

    Luckily it’s tacos to the rescue! America’s fastest~growing demographic doesn’t give a sh!t what the talking points are at THE NEW YORK TIMES. They are going to believe their own lying eyes (or at least the latest smash-n-grab TikTok video) first:

  9. What would you expect from an organization made up of these people?

    https://justjournalism.org/

    Not a pale guy in sight.

    Slightly OT:

    https://nypost.com/2022/09/27/race-faker-rachel-dolezals-nude-onlyfans-photos-leak-on-social-media/

  10. In a way, the upcoming scramble to explain away reality is hugely useful – the cognitive dissonance between the official narrative and what people experience in their own lives serves the purpose of undermining officialdom and making people more receptive to political figures that will call a spade a spade, even if their politics would normally turn them off.

    My city is one with a pretty high per capita homicide rate and the increase in crime and the effect it has had on formerly bustling areas close to the city center is the subject of conversation with virtually everyone I talk to casually. I am hearing more and more Dem-leaning voters openly express their frustration with our mayor (Dem of course) and stupid initiatives like ‘violence interruptors’ and utter what were previously unspeakable truths about the source of crime.

    I am not sure we are quite there in terms of the peak of discontent, but a couple more years of this and some people’s minds will have been changed permanently and perhaps we will return to a bit more reality-based politics.

  11. * good times create GREEN MILE gentle-giant magic negroes
    * gentle-giant magic negroes create white sh!tlibs running around giving each other insulin shots in the @ss (to take the edge off that self-righteousness rush, Election Night 2008)
    * white sh!tlibs create NEW JACK CITY-style superpredators
    * NEW JACK CITY-style superpredators create hard times
    * hard times elect Rudy Giuliani’s
    * Rudy Giuliani’s create good times

    • LOL: The Anti-Gnostic
  12. How will the media report on the 2021 crime statistics?

    Simple: they won’t. They might report somewhere in the back of their publication, but all they will report is that the crime stats are out, not any kind of substantive information. Black dysfunction won’t ever be reported on unless it can be blamed on Whites. So, if the FBI includes some blurb about right wing extremism, the Sulzberger Times will undoubtedly make that central to their coverage and how Republicans are hypocrites for not denouncing it every morning after they brush their teeth. Anything but black crime.

    • Replies: @Prester John
    @Pop Warner

    Another case of "Move along folks, nothing to see."

  13. The NonCore areas sporting an average homicide increase of 17% will also largely be located within 100 miles of some jogger infested hellhole – oh excuse me. I mean large central metro …

  14. @SFG
    You wonder how long the Biden administration (or some future Dem administration) will allow them to collect these.

    Replies: @HammerJack

    Steve’s about the only person I’ve seen who dares to compare 2021 with 2019—the last year the USA was only partly insane rather than fully insane. Even the Daily Mail is always comparing with the year before.

    Granted even that can make Dem cities look bad, but yeah, it seems we’ve reached a Carnage Plateau…for now. But wait for the next “event” because the sky’s the limit in this business.

    We know from the CDC that homicide deaths were 4.1% higher than in 2020 and 36.0% higher than in 2019: e.g., rather than a homicide spike, we have a homicide plateau, a New Normal.


  15. There’s that neighborhood again! Sadly even the WSJ is spinning this as yet another republican voter suppression initiative…

    Republican aides and strategists said they wouldn’t come close to winning deep-blue areas of the state such as Chicago but that they hoped to chip away at the Democratic advantage in the city, which could be achieved if some voters stay home.

    Dems will pounce on that. Odd that none of these aides and strategists were available for quotes.


    “Addressing the economic problems” means mo’ gibs of course.

    • Replies: @Barnard
    @HammerJack

    I'm sure if it looked like the election was getting close Pritzker would spend whatever it took to have enough ballots cast on these voters behalf to get him the win.

  16. @International Jew

    Note that the data is old, and highlight what is known about 2022
     
    Capitol Hill insurrections are down 100% in 2022!

    Replies: @Tiny Duck

    I know your joking but there is some thurth here.

    Most violent crime occurs in red conservative states.

    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!

    • Replies: @International Jew
    @Tiny Duck

    "Thurth"? Are you Tiny Duck or Daffy Duck?

    , @Muggles
    @Tiny Duck

    I hate to waste a comment on this TD moron.

    But maybe you can explain why the Jan 6 "insurrection" your Dem faves squawk about endlessly was ignored by the BLM comrades and their anti cop rhetorical blather? Nothing from them?

    An unarmed female military veteran protester was shot in the face and killed by an armed Capitol cop through a door window! The cop walked, no public hearings, no Grand Jury, no nothing! Cover-up City!

    "De-fund the Police" here?

    No, the cop was black and the vic was White.

    "Systemic Media Racism" and you too...

    , @J1234
    @Tiny Duck


    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!
     
    "Except for Ray Epps," says the left. "He did nothing wrong whatsoever!"

    Replies: @J.Ross

    , @Prester John
    @Tiny Duck

    Maybe in DuckWorld.

  17. NYC 2022 projected homicides are coming down but still elevated:

  18. It really amazes me how openly and shamelessly the “Center for Just Journalism” instructs reporters how to spin the party line. Not even a pretense that reporters are not part of the party apparatus. If this was Russia or China issuing orders to reporters it would be complete hysteria but the “Center for Just Journalism” can have “neutral journalists” in their pocket and it’s A-OK.

    • Agree: Goddard
  19. we’re not that far away from violent crime levels not mattering to national politics anymore. maybe even only 1 election away. after that it will be irrelevant no matter how high it gets. just like it’s irrelevant in most Democrat monopoly control cities.

    the Republican party is a nearly expended political force. it won’t matter much longer.

  20. “Hegel remarks somewhere that all great, world-historical facts and personages occur, as it were, twice. He has forgotten to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce.” – some dead white guy

    2020 was the farcical Summer of Love, will 2021-2024 be the farcical repetition of the stagflationary 70s? Uncle Joe is certainly a farcical foil to the tragedy of the original

  21. @Tiny Duck
    @International Jew

    I know your joking but there is some thurth here.

    Most violent crime occurs in red conservative states.

    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!

    Replies: @International Jew, @Muggles, @J1234, @Prester John

    “Thurth”? Are you Tiny Duck or Daffy Duck?

  22. @HammerJack
    https://i.ibb.co/b3WhC4V/Screenshot-20220928-092202-Firefox.jpg

    There's that neighborhood again! Sadly even the WSJ is spinning this as yet another republican voter suppression initiative...


    Republican aides and strategists said they wouldn’t come close to winning deep-blue areas of the state such as Chicago but that they hoped to chip away at the Democratic advantage in the city, which could be achieved if some voters stay home.
     
    Dems will pounce on that. Odd that none of these aides and strategists were available for quotes.


    https://i.ibb.co/cQkQZS3/Screenshot-20220928-092127-Firefox.jpg

    "Addressing the economic problems" means mo' gibs of course.

    Replies: @Barnard

    I’m sure if it looked like the election was getting close Pritzker would spend whatever it took to have enough ballots cast on these voters behalf to get him the win.

  23. @Blodgie
    @J.Ross

    Because the local cops are The Good Guys right but the federal cops are the Bad Guys?

    I’m hoping some of the Tradcons will start to wake up about the reality of law enforcement due to the FBI situation but I’m not optimistic.

    There is an inherent taste for boot leather among most conservatives.

    Replies: @SFG, @J.Ross

    The right is usually more accepting of hierarchy and authority.

  24. @Tiny Duck
    @International Jew

    I know your joking but there is some thurth here.

    Most violent crime occurs in red conservative states.

    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!

    Replies: @International Jew, @Muggles, @J1234, @Prester John

    I hate to waste a comment on this TD moron.

    But maybe you can explain why the Jan 6 “insurrection” your Dem faves squawk about endlessly was ignored by the BLM comrades and their anti cop rhetorical blather? Nothing from them?

    An unarmed female military veteran protester was shot in the face and killed by an armed Capitol cop through a door window! The cop walked, no public hearings, no Grand Jury, no nothing! Cover-up City!

    “De-fund the Police” here?

    No, the cop was black and the vic was White.

    “Systemic Media Racism” and you too…

  25. “But my impression is that cops mostly just don’t like thinking hard about data”

    Patently false. A cursory search of data driven of policing shows studies, policies, and controversies over this strategy. Police departments think long and hard about its implications. Do better next time , Mr, Sailer.

  26. Just use your common sense about crime and violence. Would you feel safe walking alone at night in a black area?

    • Replies: @Polistra
    @anonymouseperson

    Yeah, sounds reasonable, but young white women in our cities are sacrificed on a daily basis because they trust TV propaganda rather than their own common sense. Which, if they watch enough TV (and they do) will likely have been sacrificed well beforehand.

  27. How to Spin the Upcoming FBI Crime Stats to Help the Democrats

  28. @Tiny Duck
    @International Jew

    I know your joking but there is some thurth here.

    Most violent crime occurs in red conservative states.

    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!

    Replies: @International Jew, @Muggles, @J1234, @Prester John

    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!

    “Except for Ray Epps,” says the left. “He did nothing wrong whatsoever!”

    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @J1234

    Well. He did tell an agitated crowd to trespass a largely empty public building (which the guards welcomed), unlike Trump.

  29. “So blacks made up 68.1% of incremental murder victims in 2020, the year of the Racial Reckoning.”
    (from Sailer article quoted above).

    Yep! Black Lives Matter.

  30. @Tiny Duck
    @International Jew

    I know your joking but there is some thurth here.

    Most violent crime occurs in red conservative states.

    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!

    Replies: @International Jew, @Muggles, @J1234, @Prester John

    Maybe in DuckWorld.

  31. @Pop Warner
    How will the media report on the 2021 crime statistics?

    Simple: they won't. They might report somewhere in the back of their publication, but all they will report is that the crime stats are out, not any kind of substantive information. Black dysfunction won't ever be reported on unless it can be blamed on Whites. So, if the FBI includes some blurb about right wing extremism, the Sulzberger Times will undoubtedly make that central to their coverage and how Republicans are hypocrites for not denouncing it every morning after they brush their teeth. Anything but black crime.

    Replies: @Prester John

    Another case of “Move along folks, nothing to see.”

  32. Despite the great analysis by our host, most people don’t look at crime stats anyway, or the national reporting on them. They react — quite appropriately — to frightening anecdotal accounts in the local news, for which crime news (along with traffic and weather) is mother’s milk.

    People also have their own growing sense of no-go zones — exits you will not take even to just quickly gas up, subway lines you won’t ride, streets you now avoid, places you don’t want your wife or kids to go shopping.

    There’s no FBI stat on “crazy homeless persons outside my ATM” or “threatening squeegee guys on my exit ramp” or “goddamn ‘teens’ whizzing by on scooters” but word gets around. Little Mahopac NY just had a bike-trail rape, allegedly by a guy with a foreign sounding name. That’s what scares people

  33. @Blodgie
    @J.Ross

    Because the local cops are The Good Guys right but the federal cops are the Bad Guys?

    I’m hoping some of the Tradcons will start to wake up about the reality of law enforcement due to the FBI situation but I’m not optimistic.

    There is an inherent taste for boot leather among most conservatives.

    Replies: @SFG, @J.Ross

    Local law enforcement might be scum, I don’t know, that’s on you. National crime statistics are only skewed if most or an awful lot of local law enforcement is not just scum but exactly the same kind of scum.

  34. @J1234
    @Tiny Duck


    It looks like white republicans commit way more crime then everybody else!
     
    "Except for Ray Epps," says the left. "He did nothing wrong whatsoever!"

    Replies: @J.Ross

    Well. He did tell an agitated crowd to trespass a largely empty public building (which the guards welcomed), unlike Trump.

    • Agree: J1234
  35. @anonymouseperson
    Just use your common sense about crime and violence. Would you feel safe walking alone at night in a black area?

    Replies: @Polistra

    Yeah, sounds reasonable, but young white women in our cities are sacrificed on a daily basis because they trust TV propaganda rather than their own common sense. Which, if they watch enough TV (and they do) will likely have been sacrificed well beforehand.

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