The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection$
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
How to Predict Who Gets Shot in Chicago
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • B
Show CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Chicago isn’t an extraordinarily murderous place by contemporary standards. In 18 years in Chicago, I heard gunshots once.

But it’s pretty representative of our grand old cities, with whites, blacks, and Hispanics all numbering between 28%-33%. So it’s a good city to think about to better understand gun violence. I would guess that somewhere around half of all Americans have been to Chicago at some point in their lives and thus have some kind of picture in their heads of Chicago, while, say, Jackson, MS, which may be the current Murder Capital of America, doesn’t ring as many bells.

Also, due to its population, Chicago has such a huge sample size of murders each year that it’s statistically trustworthy that up and down trends aren’t just random flukes:

Year Homicides Wounded
2021 850 3,746
2020 797 3,451
2019 520 2,292
2018 592 2,465
2017 685 2,935
2016 808 3,658
2015 513 2,546
2014 464 2,230

2016 was clearly the Ferguson Effect (which arrived in Chicago on 11/23/2015 with the belated release of the the video of the bad cop shooting of Laquan MacDonald) and 2020 the Floyd Effect.

Here’s a new paper about an effort to use machine learning to predict who will get shot (killed or wounded) in Chicago over an 18 month period:

Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It

Sara B. Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh & Max Kapustin

June 14, 2022

Who is likely to get shot is probably a pretty good proxy also for who is likely to shoot somebody.

Using earlier police records on 327,127 Chicagoans, they rank ordered them in how likely they were to get shot over the latest year and a half. Among the top 500 likeliest to be shot (0.02% of all Chicagoans), 13% were shot in a year and a half (1.9% of all shooting victims in Chicago), and 8.7% of the top 3,381 (coincidentally, 8.7% of all shootings).

On the other hand, 1/3rd of all shooting victims were not known to the police. So that’s a rough estimate of the often-asked question about how many shootings are purely criminals shooting criminals: It looks like 1/3rd of victims are not what the Chicago Police Department would consider criminals. Most of them probably aren’t highly respectable, but they also aren’t The Problem.

Of the two thirds with information in CPD files, you could probably use their rank ordering to divide them into a few tiers from killers to thug to thieves to working men with problems handling their liquor and drugs.

Of the top 3,381 predicted victims, 89% are black males and 10% are Hispanic males. Keep in mind that this is machine learning and it’s Not Racial Profiling.

Among the top 3,381 predicted victims, 59% are black males under 23 years of age. In reality, only about half that percentage of victims in Chicago are young black males, but that’s because a lot of everybody else who gets shot is due to random bad luck.

The authors say, over and over, that they aren’t doing this to help arrest anybody, but instead to target the guys at the top of the list for social services, such as violence interrupters. A friend asks: “Aren’t ‘violence interrupters’ just otherwise hard-to-employ ex-cons?”

Offhand, I’d say that it might make sense for the cops to take the top of the list and see how many have outstanding warrants and try to put them in jail on the theory that the most likely victims are also the most likely killer.

Ideally, getting the most dangerous killers off the street might set off the kind of cultural change leading to a positive spiral that New York City enjoyed over the last 30 years in which young men stopped carrying their illegal handguns, in part because they felt they had more to fear from the cops than from other young men carrying illegal handguns.

On the other hand, the Soros-backed district attorney of Los Angeles County, where a Hispanic criminal recently murdered two Hispanic cops after avoiding prison on a gun charge in 2021, says “[illegal] possession of a gun is not a violent crime.”

If you fed the killer’s picture into a machine learning program, what would it predict?

Obviously, there are two kinds of gun control:

The Good Kind: Preventing law-abiding rural whites from legally buying rifles.

The Bad Kind: Stopping criminal nonwhites from carrying illegal handguns, which is racist.

From ABC 7 in Los Angeles:

“I blame the death of my son and his partner on Gascón,” said Olga Garcia. “Gascón will never know how I feel. Gascón will never know how he destroyed our families. He won’t know how [Santana’s] children feel. Crime is so high in California because criminals don’t stay in jail long enough. We need to make criminals responsible for their actions. We need law and order.”

 
Hide 86 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. George says:

    “criminals don’t stay in jail long enough.”

    California’s generous pension and benefit schemes for retired government workers requires early release of criminals.

    • Agree: Pixo
    • Replies: @John Johnson
  2. Daniel H says:

    I would guess that somewhere around half of all Americans have been to Chicago at some point in their lives and thus have some kind of picture in their heads of Chicago,

    Yep, raise my hand. Back in ’77 I walked around Hyde Park, and strayed out of Hyde Park and the people said, “What’s the matter with you boy….”

  3. EdwardM says:

    I would guess that somewhere around half of all Americans have been to Chicago at some point in their lives

    This may be your coastal-intellectual bias producing a large overestimate. Of course, 50% is always a good guess of a percentage absent much data.

  4. Your description of Good and Bad gun control is pretty accurate, Steve. I receive emails from a magazine that runs articles about how we must or can do something about “assault rifles”.
    And have to eliminate felon in possession of a weapon laws, because disparate impact on minorities.

    • Replies: @Known Fact
  5. @EdwardM

    “Of course, 50% is always a good guess of a percentage absent much data.”

    Indeed.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    , @JimDandy
  6. ic1000 says:

    Important article and good writeup, Steve. Still, it’s taking me a while to understand the methods and conclusions.

    In the Dept. of Unintended Humor: “To reduce visual clutter, demographic groups accounting for very small shares of actual and predicted victims — Hispanic women, White men, White women, individuals with missing race/ethnicity or gender information, and Black or Hispanic men with missing age information — are combined in the ‘Other’ category [a trivial 4% of the universe under consideration].”

    Something that’s obvious to iSteve’s readership but hidden from Normie-Americans is the laser-like focus of Lester Holt, Joe Biden, and the NYT on that “visual clutter.” White Flyover-Americans’ jihad of violent hate against Asian Americans. Their cascade of latter-day re-enacted Emmet Till lynchings.

    Role-model Che Guevara delighted in the suffering of gay victims of the Revolution. Unlike Lester, Joe, and the Editorial Board, Che had the ‘integrity’ to be the trigger-puller.

    Like their Bolshevik forebears, one of our elite’s superpowers is the detachment with which they formulate policies to visit misery upon their inferiors.

    I try for grim amusement, but it’s not always easy.

    • Agree: Pixo
  7. Keep in mind that this is machine learning and it’s Not Racial Profiling.

    But machine learning IS Racial Profiling.
    Unless you believe that there is nothing else that differentiates racial groups beyond skin colour.

    I’m not arguing that Racial Profiling is always bad – just that we shouldn’t kid ourselves Machine learning doesn’t do it.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  8. As a guy with principles, I never agreed with the “Stop and Frisk” policy, as it’s very obviously unConstitutional. That doesn’t at all mean that I don’t agree that it worked pretty well in reducing violent street crime in NYC.

    Why not just put ankle bracelet transmitters on and continuously keep track of on all black men in the grouping of the most likely to be shot? (Granted, mobile phones do about the same thing, for all of us.) How about rolling lockdowns of black males too, depending on weather and the political climate of the hour?

    See, with the guns, any policies made will be laid upon the non-violent White people too. Policies can’t be racist, at least not in that direction. One must also consider that, believe it or not, most (that’s more than half) of the young black men in those categories are NOT out to shoot anyone, but may carry for protection. They live in these areas too.

  9. Commenter George noted one major cause, but, yeah, the biggest point here is to keep the violent guys that commit crime after crime in prison for a long time. I know, you brought up the Soro-purchased District Attorneys.

    For the Hispanics, BTW, you need deportations after the sentences are served, but that only works if you have REAL BORDERS. Two different guys I talked to who fly for Swift Air (now iAero Group) flying the most criminal illegal aliens back home say they see lots of “frequent fliers”.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
  10. Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It

    They could write a fun web app that tells you how likely you are to get shot.

    • Agree: ic1000
  11. ic1000 says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    > Why not just put ankle bracelet transmitters on and continuously keep track of on all black men in the grouping of the most likely to be shot?

    Saying the quiet part out loud: One of the points of the paper is that you can replace “all black men” with “all people” in the above sentence, and retain at least 89% of the model’s power.

    Figure 4, row entitled “Top 3,381 predicted victims.”

    • Replies: @Inquiring Mind
  12. “[illegal] possession of a gun is not a violent crime.”

    It self evidently isn’t.

  13. @EdwardM

    The magic number for guessing as to probability of an event is 40%.
    “I’d give it a 40% chance…”
    If it happens you were right, despite the odds seemingly being against you, if it doesn’t, you’d said it probably wouldn’t.
    Heads you win, tails you don’t lose.

    Things you learn on a trading desk.

  14. Mike Tre says:

    “It looks like 1/3rd of victims are not what the Chicago Police Department would consider criminals. ”

    Just give them time.

  15. ic1000 says:

    I’m halfway through the paper, but have to move on to real life. Quick takes:

    1. In the Introduction, the authors (one each from UMich, NYU, UMaryland, and Cornell) show themselves to be liars. “This sort of machine learning cannot, mustn’t, shouldn’t, and can’t be used to predict risk of criminal behavior, because racist police, stereotyping, and BLs Mattering.”

    2. Even though the striking success of their approach is strong evidence of Not-1. If it were otherwise, they wouldn’t have tossed so much word salad to repeatedly drive the point home.

    3. Much like David Reich devoting the last quarter of his outstanding 2018 book on ancient DNA to throwing Nicholas Wade to the wolves because of his racism and crimethink.

    4. The shape of the “Total Recall” curve in Figure 2 (reproduced in the OP, above) is important in that it predicts a two-part model of gun violence victimization (and, probably, of criminal behavior). Component 1 is the influence of the risk prediction of the model for the 150,000 (or so) most victimization-prone Chicagoans. Component 2 is a low-but-non-zero risk, seemingly shared more-or-less randomly by the remaining ~2.6 million residents of the city. Key characteristic of that curve is its linearity, proceeding left from 200,000 (or so) to the left edge of the graph (327,127), and presumably all the way out to the 2.7 million mark.

    This makes sense. Citizens may have entered the “33.4% of victims lack a prediction” group by being at the wrong funeral or party, or by getting robbed/home-invaded/carjacked/etc. when a gun became inexplicably violent at them. The authors might consider naming this the “It’s Nothing Personal” cohort.

    • Replies: @Charon
  16. @EdwardM

    50% is always a good guess of a percentage absent much data.

    You are either right, or wrong. So the odds are always 50/50.

    • Replies: @EdwardM
  17. @International Jew

    They could write a fun web app that tells you how likely you are to get shot.

    If you score high enough, that should entitle you to a concealed carry permit for self-defense. Of course, most of these guys are probably carrying anyway.

    But seriously, did the researchers explain why they only calculated the likelihood of being a victim rather than the shooter? Or why the lists wouldn’t end up being the same anyway?

    • Replies: @Charon
  18. EdwardM says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    And you can’t be off by more than 50 percentage points. When the sample mean is a proportion, it’s the estimate with the largest standard error. So it matches our intuition of being the most conservative estimate.

  19. This is a fascinating post, reminds me of all those sci-fi stories where the authorities know what you’re going to do before you do it.

    Just by random chance my wife is a South Sider and my best friend is from suburban Chicago. It was a pretty awesome place, at least until recently. St Louis and Philadelphia seem much more dicey to me and of course Baltimore also has been crossed off our roadtrip list.

  20. @Redneck farmer

    In other words, gun laws are tougher on people who will never commit a violent crime than on those who have already clearly proven their violent criminality

  21. A friend asks: “Aren’t ‘violence interrupters’ just otherwise hard-to-employ ex-cons?”

    NYC Mayor’s new “Gun Violence Czar” formed his community group in the 1990s after serving a sentence for first-degree manslaughter. That resume item would make for an interesting job interview.

  22. @Steve Sailer

    At least until the pandemic Chicago used to get 50 million plus visitors a year. So your guess is not unreasonable.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  23. A friend asks: “Aren’t ‘violence interrupters’ just otherwise hard-to-employ ex-cons?”

    Mayor Eric Adams announced Thursday that he has appointed a “gun violence czar” to tackle a scourge of Big Apple shootings that is only expected to worsen as the summer heat approaches.

    Adams tapped Andre T. Mitchell — the founder of Brooklyn anti-violence group Man Up! which city investigators previously concluded had misused funds — for the role.

    “Today I am announcing a new task force … that will be co-chaired by A.T. Mitchell,” Adams, a former cop and state senator, said during a gun violence awareness month rally outside City Hall, touting his 20 years of experience in anti-gun violence efforts….

    In 2019, the city Department of Investigation found that Mitchell’s mentoring and community outreach group — which has received \$26.6 million in city funding since 2010 — had significant financial irregularities.

    The Brownsville-raised Mitchell, 55, who was convicted of first-degree manslaughter in 1988 for a killing that he says he did not commit, formed Man Up! more than a decade after being paroled in 1992. …

    As nonprofit news outlet The City reported at the time, investigators discovered that Mitchell allegedly used money from the group for personal use and gave jobs to family members. During the previous two years, over \$15,000 from credit card and delivery sales raised by an East New York coffee shop run by the group ended up in Mitchell’s personal bank account, the outlet reported.

    According to the June 2019 DOI memo, Man Up!’s payroll included Mitchell’s daughter as a \$65,000-a-year “director of administration” and his son as a \$30,000-a-year “program instructor.”

    https://nypost.com/2022/06/02/mayor-eric-adams-to-reportedly-appoint-gun-violence-czar/

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    , @Charon
  24. JimDandy says:

    I don’t know where it goes from here. The only thing that could help is aggressive policing. That’s not an option anymore, and things are heading fast in the opposite direction. Chicago just ruled yesterday that cops can’t pursue criminals on foot anymore.

    One of the worst consequences of The 2020 Color Revolution was that the George Floyd riots– coupled with the Soros-prosecutor neutering of cops–caused young blacks to start coming to downtown and North Side spaces that they used to be wary of.

    Last night:
    “A suspect is in custody after a man was shot in the face near the North Avenue Beach House on Tuesday night. Chicago police said three officers suffered minor injuries as they tried to break up fights among young people who streamed into the nearby Old Town neighborhood after being swept from the lakefront following the shooting.”

    • Replies: @cityview
  25. @Achmed E. Newman

    (Granted, mobile phones do about the same thing, for all of us.)

    Well hell, I think you got something there!

    I recall an article written many decades back by some GE engineer:

    FIELD THEORY OF CRIME (FROM INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CRIME COUNTERMEASURES – SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, PROCEEDINGS, 1977, BY JOHN S JACKSON – SEE NCJ-56184)
    NCJ Number 56197

    Abstract
    THE CONCEPT OF THE SCIENCES OF MATHEMATICS, ENGINEERING, AND SYSTEMS ANALYSIS CAN BE APPLIED TO THE FIELD OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE. FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A RESEARCH ENGINEER, MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL CONCEPTS ARE DISCUSSED FOR THE APPLICATION OF SEVERAL SCIENCES TO CRIME PREVENTION IN ORDER TO DEVELOP AN EFFECTIVE AND UNIFIED CRIME-FIGHTING TOOL. ELEMENTARY MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS ARE PRESENTED WHICH REPRESENT THE EQUILIBRIUM OF PHYSICAL QUANTITITES, AND BY ANALOGY, THE SOCIAL PRESSURES OF MINORITIES AND MAJORITIES IN OUR CULTURE. IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, THE CONCEPTS OF PRESSURE AND STRESS HAVE PRECISE MEANINGS WHICH MAY BE APPLIED TO HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY. COGNITIVE DISSONANCE THEORIES, BASED ON PSYCHOLOGICAL STRESS, ARE USED TO DEVELOP MORE COMPLEX EQUATIONS. CREATED FROM THE WATERGATE POLITICAL CRISIS, EXAMPLES ARE USED TO COMPARE THE OPPOSING PRESSURES OF POLITICAL PARTIES TO THE TENSIONS STUDIED IN MECHANICS. A MARKED DISSONANCE BETWEEN PERSONS IS SHOWN TO RESULT IN RELEASING SOCIAL PRESSURES THROUGH CRIME. A FIELD THEORY IS PRESENTED IN WHICH POTENTIAL VICTIMS AND CRIMINALS ACT WITHIN A FIELD THAT HAS CHARACTERISTICS BORROWED FROM THE SCIENCE OF ACOUSTICS. THE POSSIBILITY OF CRIME IS SEEN TO INCREASE IF THE FIELDS OF THE ACTORS BEGIN TO COINCIDE. SUGGESTIONS FOR USING THE FIELD THEORY IN LAWS ARE GIVEN. A GRAPH, FOOTNOTES, AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE PROVIDED. (TWK)

    https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/field-theory-crime-international-conference-crime-countermeasures

    With all this cell phone tracking stuff you could see how selected classes of people interacted and determine if a crime resulted.

    SCIENCE!

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  26. Rob says:

    Steve, you should check and see what the impending Musk regime has done to the Twitter censors. Try reposting the tweet(s) that got you sent to Twitter jail. Think it was about BLM and you being an anti-murder activist.

  27. Chicago police officers will no longer be allowed to chase people on foot simply because they run away, or give chase over minor offenses, the department said Tuesday, more than a year after two foot pursuits ended with officers fatally shooting a 13-year-old boy and 22-year-old man.

    “Wait! Please stop! Our algo shows you’re at high risk of getting shot! Maybe by us, but whatever …”

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  28. Same as the Border – enforce existing laws and then watch crime drop.

    Ever wonder how all these young black men with criminal records get guns? It’s not out of the trunk of a car in an alley somewhere. They use their sisters, cousins, aunts – someone with a clean record. Then when the gun is used in a crime, the police aren’t arresting the person who bought it and gave it to the criminal (because that person is highly probably a black female, and imagine the outrage on the TV news when multiple “law abiding” black women get arrested for giving a felon a weapon).

    • Replies: @stillCARealist
  29. JimDandy says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    This entire conversation has missed the MUCH bigger issue:

    ‘In the wake of racially motivated attacks like the Buffalo, New York, supermarket shooting, which targeted a predominantly Black community, groups like the Latino Rifle Association have argued that body armor is “valid protection from hate crimes.”‘

  30. Anonymous[954] • Disclaimer says:

    The Chicago Police Department has unveiled a new policy prohibiting its officers from chasing people on foot simply because they run away, or because they have committed minor offenses.

    The policy, which was introduced Tuesday, also encourages cops to “consider alternatives” to pursuing someone who “is visibly armed with a firearm.”

    Under the policy, officers may give chase if they believe a person is committing or is about to commit a felony, a Class A misdemeanor such as domestic battery, or a serious traffic offense that could risk injuring others, such as drunken driving or street racing.

    Perhaps most significantly, the new policy makes clear that the days of officers giving chase just because someone tries to get away from them are over.

    “People may avoid contact with a member for many reasons other than involvement in criminal activity,” the policy states…

    https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/chicago-cops-barred-from-chasing-people-on-foot-who-run-away/

    • Replies: @Sick n' Tired
  31. Twinkie says:

    But it’s pretty representative of our grand old cities, with whites, blacks, and Hispanics all numbering between 28%-33%.

    A game I learned from Steve Sailer:

    Ctrl-F “Asi…”

    • Replies: @Thomm
  32. @George

    California’s generous pension and benefit schemes for retired government workers requires early release of criminals.

    That isn’t the main problem.

    The main problem is that there aren’t enough prisons.

    California is managed by Democrats and they don’t want to build any new ones. Whenever someone proposes a new prison the usual suspects put on a big protest about locking up minorities and how we should build schools and blah blah nothing happens.

    • Replies: @Dave from Oz
    , @Flip
  33. @Achmed E. Newman

    Ach, there was a website, “Second City Cop” written and produced by a Chicago cop. It was, in my opinion, an excellent source of woke policies gone astray. It seemed weekly, in Chicago, that some perp on an electronic monitor release was involved in a violent crime. To quote the agrieved mother…”We need law and order.” Stop and frisk worked. Stay safe.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
    , @Mike Tre
  34. best predictor of you getting shot and killed – be a school kid in Uvalde, Texas.

    holy christ. the more we learn about this shooting, the worse it gets. i don’t even know how that’s possible but there it is.

    and now Republicans want to help Democrats disarm us. you’ve gotta be kidding me. i’m cynical to the max but holy hell.

    • Replies: @Flip
  35. JimDandy says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Second City Cop was writing for The Chicago Contrarian until earlier this year, but seems to have stopped. The Contrarian is a good site, though–run by another Chicago cop, Martin Preib, who I’ve seen on Tucker before.

    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
  36. Anonymous[658] • Disclaimer says:
    @kaganovitch

    include Ohare its almost everyone

    • Agree: Charon, bomag
  37. rexl says:

    Someone would have been the first on the crime scene and putting two and two together would have shot the shooter, that is what this kind of dismissal will lead too.

  38. Dennis Dale says: • Website

    The Good Kind: Preventing law-abiding rural whites from legally buying rifles.

    The Bad Kind: Stopping criminal nonwhites from carrying illegal handguns, which is racist.

    Yes, and apparently the strategy is to ultimately dry up the supply of handguns that end up in the hood by shutting down the gun industry and then attriting as much as possible of what’s left through seizure. Just think of all those rap careers that will be saved.

    But they very much don’t want the police to stop criminal nonwhites from carrying illegal handguns, because it’s racist–it puts too many of the black criminals behind bars. More rap careers saved.
    So instead of refining and building on effective police work, which is the only thing proven to work in disarming the hood, we’re going to do it the hard way, by disarming the non-hood.
    That’s what they’d have you believe I guess, but maybe disarming the non-hood is really the whole point.

    The generous take on gun control in America is that Whitey must give up the rights he’s responsibly held so black screw-ups can die by other stupid means.
    The not-so-generous and increasingly accurate to me take is that taking Whitey’s rights, especially his guns, is the whole point and black mayhem is a means to that, and a means to a lot of national destruction.
    I’ve always said the Left loves blacks for their dysfunction. It’s a nuclear fuel rod of demagogy, always radiating away. One day maybe it melts down.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob, fish
    • Replies: @John Johnson
  39. @International Jew

    Never mind the fun web app – with a little Reg Caesar-type juxtaposition, they could write a fun headline:

    “Enough Machine (gun) Shooting Victimization Can Help to Prevent Learning Well”

  40. @michael droy

    But machine learning IS Racial Profiling…

    I’m not arguing that Racial Profiling is always bad – just that we shouldn’t kid ourselves Machine learning doesn’t do it.

    Machine learning and profiling are one and the same.

  41. “Chicago isn’t an extraordinarily murderous place by contemporary standards. In 18 years in Chicago, I heard gunshots once.”

    Chicago in 2021 experienced ~30 homicides per 100,000. This is comparable to the peak of NYC homicides in the late 1980s/early 1990s.

    New York City then was seen as fairly murderous …

    • Agree: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Jonathan Mason
  42. Mike Tre says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    A good alternative is the Crime in Wrigleyville/Boystown independent news site. You’ll see reporting on stories not mentioned anywhere else, like the massive brawl outside a Boystown bar the other night:

    https://cwbchicago.com/2022/06/2-cops-injured-large-fight-overwhelms-police-boystown-going-crazy-more-cars-chicago.html

    • Replies: @Flip
  43. Legba says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    You act like there’s somebody in charge who wants the shooting to decrease. I think you’re being naïve

  44. @Harry Baldwin

    Harry, just from what I have read about black run local community “outreach” programs, nepotism is pretty common as are inordinately high salaries for know-nothing jobs. And they dress well too.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  45. @JimDandy

    Jim, thank you. I have read the Chicago Contrarian site, well written but lots of verbage. SCC was blunt and concise and occasionally crude but very insightful. stay safe.

    • Agree: JimDandy
    • Replies: @anonymous
  46. Muggles says:
    @International Jew

    In the Bad Old days, say 40 years ago, actual print newspapers would periodically run colored maps on weekends showing areas of large cities and suburbs where crime was most common, using arrest and conviction data.

    Then sometimes overlaid that with income/racial information. This was before that became illegal or something. The ThoughtCrime of Noticing.

    Now this highly helpful info is only available in barely legal websites like Unz by someone doing all of the hard work themselves. It will get you banned on “social media.”

    Early feminist groups would sometimes produce “rape maps” like this.

    Now the Crime of Noticing has triumphed over “democracy dies in darkness.” Yup, WaPo still uses that despite the “darkness” bit. So some truth manages to escape anyway…

    • LOL: bomag
  47. @Dennis Dale

    The generous take on gun control in America is that Whitey must give up the rights he’s responsibly held so black screw-ups can die by other stupid means.

    Probably the best description I have ever seen and after being around urban liberals I understood how they reached their conclusion.

    1. They are terrified of guns in general and don’t trust themselves to use them properly in a defensive situation
    2. They cannot admit that they are afraid of being shot by a Black criminal
    3. They are bothered by Black/White differences in gun crimes.

    Removing guns from everyone in their minds is the only option since Black criminality cannot be discussed. Take away all the guns and then risk getting stabbed. It is shocking as to how many will admit in private that they will accept more stabbings. They have no inclination towards self-defense and really want to limit their wound type. In their minds an angry Black man with a knife at least gives them a chance to run away.

    I’ve always said the Left loves blacks for their dysfunction. It’s a nuclear fuel rod of demagogy, always radiating away. One day maybe it melts down.

    I would add that there is a major difference between the left and mainstream Democrats in terms of their ideals.

    Mainstream Democrats imagine gun-free urban areas where Black violence isn’t a problem. They don’t think Blacks will create Wakanda but they would be happy with a drop in violence and third worldish standards.

    The left has no use for peaceful Black areas. They want Blacks to be aggravated and lashing out at the system. They view Blacks as frontline soldiers. In fact they hold White workers with contempt for tolerating the system. They prefer Whites that are criminal over hard working Whites. The left only respects rebellious Whites and even within left-wing circles those Whites are still expected to submit to the group. Meaning you can rebel against society but not us.

    • Agree: bomag
  48. @Buffalo Joe

    Harry, just from what I have read about black run local community “outreach” programs, nepotism is pretty common as are inordinately high salaries for know-nothing jobs. And they dress well too.

    I always thought it was bizarre that nepotism is not only part of the unions but part of the culture.

    Your first born son can be a total screw up but he will get a job in the shop.

    Government jobs are the same way. They only have to be careful at higher levels and it seems that Black Democrats can pretty much ignore the rules. Black Democrats are also allowed to ignore rules about churches and political fundraising.

  49. Thomm says:
    @Twinkie

    A game I learned from Steve Sailer:

    Ctrl-F “Asi…”

    Quit demanding that Asians get some tangential honorable mention in every possible thread. Yes, Asian crime rates are low and academic scores are high, but you seem to want every single thread to mention this at least five times. If you want to become an American someday, then become an American. In the meantime, you can always read and play ‘Oriental Adventures’ by Gary Gygax from 1985.

    Btw, at some point I will request that Steve assess this video from Will Jay :

    He is a great vocalist who has the soul of Frank Sinatra and Fred Astaire combined, but was born in the wrong era and (half) the wrong race for someone who wants to actualize this career. He attributes his lack of mainstream recognition to anti-Asian discrimination to the extent of this being the entire theme of the music video. But he is a great vocalist.

    • Replies: @ic1000
    , @Jonathan Mason
  50. @Anonymous

    And the police departments/cities will be sued for millions after the thug they couldn’t chase goes on to shoot someone, or who’s stray bullet kills some innocent bystander. Then the cries of “the police let him get away, now my baby is dead!”.

  51. Anonymous[954] • Disclaimer says:

    Forget facilitating the negroes.

    Historically, and presently, they are a shameless, silly people.

    Even their betters of their own race don’t want to waste their time dealing with their narcissist or psychopathic brethren.

    That’s why, for example, Snoop Dog chooses to live in a white neighborhood, rather than Compton. Even that spent-out cross-eyed hoodrat knows how to budget his time. Don Lemon’s husband is white, because he doesn’t want to waste his time on the emotional dysfunction of the relatives a black partner would inevitably inject into his life.

    Blacks marrying whites is the ultimate expression of “redlining.”

    Ultimately, too many negroes find understanding, let alone adopting the ways of modern white civilization, to be impossible. It is a fool’s errand to proceed as if that is not the case.

  52. @John Johnson

    Theres an easy fix for not enough prisons: grant early release for violent offenders in exchange for one testicle. This will reduce the volent tendencies, and act as a natual “three strikes” rule.

    The other fix for not enough prison space is to make it legal for doctors to prescribe anything at all for mangement of addiction. It will instantly pull the rug out from under criminal industry.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    , @John Johnson
  53. ic1000 says:
    @Thomm

    > Quit demanding that Asians get some tangential honorable mention in every possible thread.

    You likely misunderstood Twinkie’s point.

    • Agree: Twinkie
    • Replies: @Thomm
  54. Charon says:
    @Hypnotoad666

    If you score high enough

    Finally! A test without racist disparate impact!

  55. Charon says:
    @Harry Baldwin

    Pikers! They must be livid reading about the BLM leaders’ exploits.

  56. @EdwardM

    Steve exhibiting coastal-intellectual bias? Oh my, if that’s Steve, what do you call every other college-educated white Californian (or Manhattan-Brooklynite)? I’ve known a few of them, and bias doesn’t start to describe the virtual blindness they have about the flyover region.

    • Replies: @Joe862
  57. anonymous[251] • Disclaimer says:
    @Buffalo Joe

    Buffalo Joe

    I agree SCC Second City Cop was a great tell it as it is about Chicago street crime and Lib BLM corruption. I miss SCC

    We still have CrimeInWrigleyVilleandBoysTown CWB and Hey Jackass.

    Also former featured ChiTribune writer John Kass (purged by ChiTrib Woke, Libs) has a good blog JohnKassNews and the son of WGN Milt Rosenberg Mat Rosenberg is a contributor with John Kass also on something I think is called Wirepoints.

    U Chicago has a (pretty lame) Alternative Conservative blog the Chicago thinker with support from the Federalist judicial something.

    We had a popular pretty honest AM Radio guy that was making noise about being an anti riot, anti crime player in Chicago, Illinois politics Mankow but he dropped out, it was a combination of Woke, BLM thought police and him just getting bored.

    Regular (White) folks and just sane people of all races are pretty much on our own, leaderless.

    Our city is incredibly beautiful downtown – the flash mobs of “Youths” and diseased, plague infected crazy homeless are everywhere.

    JR The Political Cesspool
    LeftBehindinChicago

    • Replies: @JimDandy
  58. anonymous[251] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dave from Oz

    How about off shore penal colonies and insane asylums?

    Australia is the most successful penal colony – now a better place to live than England.

    Lots and lots of empty lands in North Canada – the diseased, plagued crazy homeless in my Chicago need to go somewhere. I had a very disturbing confrontation with one yesterday.

    JR
    Left Behind in Chicago
    TPC the Political Cesspool

  59. A quick, but simple and effective improvement in background checks for guns would be that no one with a tattoo on their face, neck, or hands gets a gun.

    However the tattoo lobby in Congress is rich and powerful.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  60. @Dave from Oz

    Theres an easy fix for not enough prisons: grant early release for violent offenders in exchange for one testicle. This will reduce the volent tendencies, and act as a natual “three strikes” rule.

    There all kinds of easy fixes. Technically easy but politically impossible.

    The liberal establishment opposes even the discussion of tying testosterone levels to crime. They correctly suspect that the discussion itself will undermine liberal orthodoxy on behavior and biology.

    The other fix for not enough prison space is to make it legal for doctors to prescribe anything at all for mangement of addiction. It will instantly pull the rug out from under criminal industry.

    That would just fill the streets with addicts which is what happened in SF.

    Most states don’t even lock up low level dealers. There is a shortage of space in California for violent criminals.

    It is also a myth that US blacks are shooting each other over drug territory. That is a myth promoted by libertarians that want to legalize drugs. NYC did a study a few years ago that showed how the typical shooting is over a “beef” aka something stupid.

    • Replies: @Sick n' Tired
  61. @EdwardM

    I would guess that somewhere around half of all Americans have been to Chicago at some point in their lives

    Does O’Hare Airport count?

  62. @Jonathan Mason

    A quick, but simple and effective improvement in background checks for guns would be that no one with a tattoo on their face, neck, or hands gets a gun.

    Wouldn’t work. Blacks with tattoos on their necks aren’t buying legally.

    They have their girlfriends buy the guns.

  63. @Thomm

    I don’t think his voice is that great–rather lightweight–but would have to hear him perform a few standards to get a better idea. An Asian singer is usually going to achieve stardom first with Asian audiences, and making a crossover to mainstream audiences would probably require a major hit song or a role in a hit musical or movie.

  64. Anon[304] • Disclaimer says:

    “Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It”

    Machine learning isn’t going to go out and stand between two street thugs and stop them from trying to blow each other away.

    A social worker standing in the middle will just get killed trying to stop two thugs from shooting each other.

    A Chicago cop figures it’s a waste of time trying to stop one thug from trying to kill another, because in sum it leaves one less thug. Their higher-ups care, and they only really care about making their statistics look good. The average higher-up doesn’t care about thugs and would rather they all die because it would make their jobs a lot easier if the thugs were gone.

    Policing utter trash, people who are touchy, stupid, and violent, is a nasty job.

  65. @American Citizen

    There is a large, undocumented trade in unlicensed firearms. I’ve seen it firsthand among the rednecks and right-wingers I know. All it takes is one of these guys to get a contact with gangs and the pipeline starts. Losers will do pretty much anything for money.

    Also, firearms theft is a big deal. When someone gets known by thugs to have an arsenal, he or she becomes a target for theft. The criminals know how to break into a home, steal an entire safe, drill it open, and then sell whatever is inside. You don’t want to know how I know this.

  66. Thomm says:
    @ic1000

    You likely misunderstood Twinkie’s point.

    Oh, I understand his broader schtick all too well. It is pretty obvious.

    • Troll: William Badwhite
  67. Flip says:
    @John Johnson

    I bet we could get some ex-Soviets to help us build gulags on the cheap.

  68. Flip says:
    @Mike Tre

    @CWBChicago on Twitter.

  69. Flip says:
    @prime noticer

    You kind of wonder if it wasn’t a false flag by the Fedgov

  70. JimDandy says:
    @Steve Sailer

    So, what would you say the chances are that this culprit is black? 50-50?

    EVANSTON, Ill. (AP) — A student has been charged with misdemeanor disorderly conduct after three nooses were found on the campus of an Evanston middle school.

    The boy, whose name was not released, has not been charged with a hate crime.

    Evanston police said Wednesday that the Cook County state’s attorney’s office reviewed the evidence and declined to add a hate crime charge “because the actions and motive of the involved juvenile did not meet the legal, statutory elements of a hate crime.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
  71. JimDandy says:
    @anonymous

    Downtown and Mag Mile are the crown jewels of the city and should have been fiercely protected. That’s where all the tourist revenue come in. But no. And even the beaches are gang infested zoos now. Word travels fast. Chicago’s reputation is even worse than the reality. The city might never recover.

    • Replies: @Haxo Angmark
  72. @John Johnson

    These days it’s arguments and online shit talking started on social media.

  73. Joe862 says:
    @John Milton’s Ghost

    Incuriosity is a sign of intelligence right? If not then ignorant prejudice certainly is.

  74. Truth says:

    2016 was clearly the Ferguson Effect

    You mean the candidate Donald J. Trump effect?

  75. cityview says:
    @JimDandy

    After May 2020, some of the activity you refer to increased, but it had started long before that. I still live downtown, and young black people have been visiting here and staying quite a while the entire time I have been here. And older black people have been visiting the area for medical appointments the whole time, as well.

    But I’ve written here before that most of the people you see on the street where I live are various minorities. The majority of residents are Asian. The majority of visitors from the city are black, and most do not seem affluent. In the past few years, some on excursions to the area are Hispanic, unusual in the first years I lived here. Most are speaking Spanish, not English, again unusual in the earlier years I was here.

    Recall that the huge group of unruly teenagers at Water Tower Place gathered in May 2018, not in 2020. I also witnessed two carjackings downtown in 2018, one on either side of Michigan Avenue. There was a homicide on Lake Shore Drive down here as early as 2013, and more following, before 2020. Actually one thing has improved since those years: the car parties many liked to drive near the lake to enjoy (what it sounds like: park the car, sit inside or outside the car and drink and play the radio) don’t occur much now.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
  76. JimDandy says:
    @cityview

    Thanks, yes, things were getting bad–I noticed CTA crimes were up, too. But things have exploded since ’20. Carjackings are keeping pace with last year, when they spiked almost 40%. 60% of those carjackers are under 18, and the trend is to come to the nice neighborhoods.

  77. @Mark Roulo

    “Chicago isn’t an extraordinarily murderous place by contemporary standards. In 18 years in Chicago, I heard gunshots once.”

    Is this really how homicide statistics are analyzed by America’s leading criminologist?

    • Troll: ic1000
    • Replies: @ic1000
  78. @JimDandy

    So, what would you say the chances are that this culprit is black? 50-50?

    I trust your question was rhetorical. He’d be front page news and in solitary were he white.

    To quote Jesse Jackson, “Blacks can’t be racist. They don’t have power.”

    • Replies: @JimDandy
  79. Gamecock says:

    “You won’t get gun control by disarming law-abiding citizens. There’s only one way to get real gun control: Disarm the thugs and the criminals, lock them up” — Ronaldus Magnus

  80. @JimDandy

    c’mon. The elected mayor is a black, lesbian, communist.

    sez all.

    • Replies: @JimDandy
  81. JimDandy says:
    @Haxo Angmark

    And Chicago reelected the Black Soros/Obama-Flunkie prosecutor who wrote an enraged editorial about the “kangaroo court” when her boy Jussie got convicted

  82. JimDandy says:
    @Jim Don Bob

    Yeah, that’s what I thought. Now I’m hearing rumors that the kid says he did it because he was obsessed with suicide, and the furor has immediately died down. So now I’m wondering if he’s a white trans or something. I don’t think simply being suicidal would save a white kid from being turned into a symbol of hate.

  83. ic1000 says:
    @Jonathan Mason

    > Is this really how homicide statistics are analyzed by America’s leading criminologist?

    C’mon J.M. If Sailer isn’t up to your high standards, why not contribute your killer remarks to the comment sections at USA Today?

    Imagine: a freelancer posting from his closet really is America’s most insightful criminologist!

    A powerful observation. Just not in the way you imagine.

    I’ll return later to award your comment the tag it deserves.

    You Can Do Better.

  84. @ic1000

    C’mon, don’t you know that Machine Learning (or the computer programmers and mathematicians constructing the algorithms) can be perpetrators of systemic racism and implicit bias?

    I fun you not. I know a PhD student at the U whose is research is on combating racism and implicit bias in Machine Learning algorithms. That a PhD student is doing this means that an Assistant Professor is aiming to get tenure on this.

    • Replies: @ic1000
  85. ic1000 says:
    @Inquiring Mind

    > don’t you know that Machine Learning (or the computer programmers and mathematicians constructing the algorithms) can be perpetrators of systemic racism and implicit bias?

    The authors devote most of the Introduction to their paper to discussing this and related points. They repeatedly assure the readers (and any grant reviewers who might happen by) that these researchers are the Good Guys and this research is 100% guaranteed to be racist-proof and bias-proof.

    Fortunately, their approach cannot be used to tackle Bad Guy topics, like putting shooters and other criminals behind bars. It’s impossible and unethical, in that order. Or maybe the other way around, I forget.

Current Commenter
says:

Leave a Reply - Comments are moderated by iSteve, at whim.


 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
$
Submitted comments have been licensed to The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Commenting Disabled While in Translation Mode
Subscribe to This Comment Thread via RSS Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS
PastClassics
The Shaping Event of Our Modern World
Becker update V1.3.2